Lars ELLER – McKeen's Hockey

THE WEEK AHEAD: November 13th to 19th – Bruins goaltending driving early success – Oilers reset with coaching change

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 13 Nov 2023 14:39:11 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - OCTOBER 26: Columbus Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli (11) waits for a face-off during the Columbus Blue Jackets versus the Montreal Canadiens game on October 26, 2023, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

The opening story of these articles might be a bit of a curse. I talked about how bad the Sharks were, and they subsequently got outscored 20-3. I followed that by discussing the sorry state of the Oilers in the last edition of this column, and their situation proceeded to get worse with a loss to the lowly Sharks, prompting the firing of coach Jay Woodcroft.

So, who will I burden with featuring this week? Rather than focus on the negative, why not shift our gaze to one of the best teams in the league? After over a month of play, I think it’s fair to say that reports of Boston’s demise over the summer have been greatly exaggerated.

It was logical to expect the Bruins to decline after losing significant pieces over the summer, most notably Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci due to retirement, but Boston’s 11-1-2 start is only a slight deviation from its 12-2-0 opening in 2022-23. How have they managed that? It really just comes down to the one thing that hasn’t changed: The goaltending.

Through 14 games in 2022-23, Boston had surrendered just 32 goals versus 28 over the same span this year. In the previous campaign that was entirely due to Linus Ullmark -- Jeremy Swayman struggled in the early portion of that season -- whereas this year it’s been a joint effort between Ullmark and Swayman, but the result is the same: Amazing goaltending wins games.

That has shielded Boston’s record from the reality that this genuinely is a worse iteration of the Bruins. Through 14 contests last year, Boston led the league offensively with 4.00 goals per game. By contrast, the Bruins are in the middle of the pack this season at 3.21.

David Pastrnak has enjoyed a near identical start to his 2023-24 campaign (21 points versus 22 points last year) and having Brad Marchand healthy from the start of the season (he missed the opening eight contests of 2022-23) helps. However, that’s not enough to make up for the loss of Bergeron (12 points in 14 contests), Taylor Hall (nine points) and David Krejci (nine points). There’s been a trickle-down impact in the Bruins’ scoring depth too: Boston had 12 multi-goal players at this point last year compared to eight today.

But what we’ve seen is all that extra offense was a waste. When you have goaltending this good, what does it matter? In 2022-23, Boston scored four or more goals in four of their first six contests. The Bruins did that just once in the same span this campaign. But so what? Boston not only won its first six contests this year but did so by two or more goals in all but one occasion.

The takeaway here is that those who predicted Boston’s decline were underestimating just how much their success is truly linked to their goaltending and how much the Bruins could afford to regress before it would actually start to impact their record.

Then again, there’s still a lot of the campaign left. The 2022-23 Bruins didn’t just get off to a strong start, they maintained it all year, finishing 65-12-5. This year’s weaker offense also makes Boston more vulnerable to injuries. When Brad Marchand was hurt at the start of 2022-23, Boston had enough talent to shrug it off. Could these Bruins do the same? What if a couple of middle-six forwards get hurt? Boston isn’t exactly swimming in depth anymore to fill the void.

Time will tell, but while Boston is better than some gave it credit for, it might also prove to be a bit of a glass canon.

Columbus Blue Jackets

The Blue Jackets got off to a 3-2-0 start, but they’ve posted a 1-5-4 record since, including five consecutive losses. They’ll try to right the ship this week with home games against Pittsburgh and Arizona on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, followed by road contests versus Washington on Saturday and Philadelphia on Sunday.

Despite the Blue Jackets’ continued struggles, there have been some individual standout performers. Defenseman Erik Gudbranson has contributed five assists over his last four contests. He’s not a bad short-term pickup to ride while he’s hot, especially because he also has 13 PIM and 39 hits in 15 games this year, so the blueliner offers a bit of versatility.

Rookie Adam Fantilli is also looking good. He’s on a three-game scoring streak, giving him four goals and nine points through 15 contests. That puts him in a tie for fourth in the rookie scoring race. Fantilli has a top-six role and is on the first power-play unit. He’s likely to finish the campaign with 45-55 points.

Edmonton Oilers

New Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch has a pretty favorable stretch to start his NHL career. The Oilers will host the Islanders on Monday and the Kraken on Wednesday -- both of which are off to mild starts -- before facing Tampa Bay, which is just 6-5-4 due in no small part to the continued absence of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (back). Edmonton has a lot of ground to cover to claw back into the playoff race, but taking four of six points this week is entirely doable.

How much of the Oilers’ problems can be fixed with coaching change is up for debate, but teams do typically get at least a short-term boost following a bench boss firing, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Edmonton does well this week.

A new coach also has the potential to be a reset point for struggling players. I’m not expecting Connor McDavid, who has been subpar by his high standards with two goals and 10 points in 11 contests, to see an immediate spike in production. Knoblauch was McDavid’s coach with the OHL’s Erie Otters, so I’m sure McDavid will play well under him, but the superstar might be playing through an injury right now, which makes a coaching change matter less as far as he’s concerned -- at least in the short-term.

Do you know who else Knoblauch coached with Erie, though? Connor Brown. Before the season, it was hoped that Brown, reunited with McDavid, might have the best season of his career, but so far Brown has failed to record even a single point. The 29-year-old is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, but when he returns, perhaps working under Knoblauch will do him some good.

I’m also interested to see if Darnell Nurse can rekindle his offensive game after recording just four points through 13 contests this season, down from 43 in 2023-24. Rather than Knoblauch directly, it might be the presence of new assistant coach Paul Coffey who aids Nurse.

New York Islanders

The Islanders are on the road this week with games in Edmonton on Monday, Vancouver on Wednesday, Seattle on Thursday and Calgary on Saturday. It’s not the easiest schedule, but it is a packed one, so there is an opportunity here for players to have above-average weeks.

Backup Semyon Varlamov will be one to watch. The Islanders are likely going to use him in one, maybe two starts. With three of the four teams being middling-to-poor offensively this campaign (Edmonton, Calgary and Seattle), this seems like a favorable stretch to lean on the Islanders’ goaltending.

On the offensive side of things, the Islanders aren’t a strong group and not many players have performed well recently.

Simon Holmstrom is an exception, providing three goals over his last five contests. He’s an interesting player. Selected with the No. 23 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, he has offensive upside, but the Islanders used him sparingly last year (an average of 11:06 per game), which resulted in him providing just six goals and nine points in 50 contests. Even with his recent run, he’s been limited to four points through 12 outings this year, but the Islanders seem to be experimenting with him in a bigger role, bringing him up to an average of 14:58 over his last four contests. Keep an eye on his usage and performance over the next few games.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins’ rough start is well behind them after winning each of their last four games. They’ll look to keep that going this week with games in Columbus on Tuesday, versus New Jersey on Thursday, in Carolina on Saturday and finally against the Golden Knights on Sunday.

Erik Karlsson has been a huge part of the Penguins’ recent success. He got off to a slow start with a goal and four points over his first eight contests this year, but he’s bounced back with a five-game scoring streak, providing three goals and nine points in that stretch. Maybe he needed a bit of time to settle in with the Penguins, but he should finish the campaign with over 70 points so long as he stays healthy.

Pittsburgh has other stars excelling too, but one lower-profile player who is quietly having a productive campaign is Lars Eller. He’s up to two goals and seven points in 13 contests and is also entering the week on a three-game point streak. With how packed this week is, you might want to consider grabbing him temporarily. However, he’s primarily a third-liner, and it’s rare to see him on the power play, so don’t keep him long-term.

Seattle Kraken

Seattle hasn’t been able to replicate its 2022-23 success, going just 5-7-3 thus far. The Kraken are averaging an okay 3.27 goals per game dating back to Oct. 19 though, so while their overall of 2.60 is poor, that’s not reflective of their recent play.

Jaden Schwartz has been a big part of their improvement. After a quiet start to the campaign (two points through five contests), he’s recorded at least a point in each of his last nine outings, providing six goals and 12 points over that stretch. At this point, he’s a solid sell-high candidate in fantasy leagues. Schwartz is a solid forward but won’t be able to maintain this level of production. If he finishes the season in the 50-60 point range, that would be seen as a win. Keep in mind that he also has a somewhat lengthy injury history, which adds another element of risk to the equation.

Eeli Tolvanen is also on a roll, contributing two goals and five points over his last four contests. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that hot streak extended, especially against Colorado and Edmonton, which are two teams plagued by struggling goaltending (Edmonton’s is obvious, but Alexandar Georgiev has a 4.73 GAA and an .842 save percentage over his last seven contests).

At the other end of the spectrum, Kailer Yamamoto hasn’t done much yet, supplying just two goals and four points in 15 contests. There was a time when the 25-year-old seemed set to become a great top-six forward, but outside of his 41-point showing in 2021-22, that hasn’t panned out yet. Seattle is still giving him every opportunity, often deploying him on the top power-play unit, so there is still hope there.

St. Louis Blues

The Blues will host Tampa Bay on Tuesday before going on a road trip with stops in San Jose on Thursday, Los Angeles on Saturday and Anaheim on Sunday. The Lightning and Sharks are two of the bottom-five teams in terms of goals allowed per game this year, so this seems like a good time to grab a Blues forward.

Robert Thomas couldn’t be hotter going into the week. He’s contributed five goals and 10 points over his last six contests, including four assists versus Colorado on Saturday. Brayden Schenn came up huge against the Avalanche too, supplying a hat trick and an assist to elevate him to nine points in 13 outings this year.

Neither is likely to be available in most fantasy leagues, but Oskar Sundqvist probably is. While the bottom-six forward isn’t a good long-term option, he has chipped in a goal and three points over the last two contests, so he’s warm going into a favorable stretch.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning will play just three games this week, but the competition isn’t bad for them. As noted above, they’ll be in St. Louis on Tuesday, followed by a contest in Chicago on Thursday before hosting Edmonton on Saturday. The Blackhawks unsurprising have a poor 5-8-0 record and while Edmonton’s coaching change adds an extra X-Factor to the meeting, the Oilers are near the bottom of the pack too.

Tampa Bay will continue to be without Vasilevskiy -- though he’s currently on track to return around American Thanksgiving -- and they’re also missing Conor Sheary (upper body). Erik Cernak’s (undisclosed) status isn’t known at the time of writing, but he did exit Saturday’s game. Nikita Kucherov didn’t play Saturday, but unless his illness is significant, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him play Tuesday or Thursday at the latest.

If Cernak ends up missing additional time due to his injury, then we might see Philippe Myers draw into the lineup. He wouldn’t be an offensive threat, but if you’re fishing for PIM and hits, then Myers would be worthy of consideration should he play.

If you’re looking for scoring outside of the usual candidates, Alex Barre-Boulet might still be worthy of consideration. He has just a goal and an assist over his last six contests, but Barre-Boulet has shown he can be productive with limited minutes and the defensive quality of Chicago (3.46 goals allowed per game) and Edmonton (3.92) improves the chances of him factoring in later in the week.

Vegas Golden Knights

Along with Boston, Vegas has dominated the league with its 12-2-1 start. The Golden Knights haven’t played since Friday, so they’ll be well rested for their road trip, which will take them to Washington on Tuesday, Montreal on Thursday, Philadelphia on Saturday and Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Like Boston, Vegas’ success starts with its goaltending. Adin Hill leads the team with a 7-1-1 record, 1.75 GAA and .939 save percentage in nine contests while Logan Thompson has been a fantastic alternative, providing a 5-1-0 record, 2.31 GAA and .923 save percentage in six games. With a full road schedule this week, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them each get two starts.

The Golden Knights outshine Boston offensively though, averaging 3.67 goals per game. William Karlsson has been leading the charge with eight goals and 18 points in 15 contests this year, including five markers and seven points over his last five outings. His shooting percentage has climbed to 32.0, which is a huge red flag. To put that in perspective, he had a 23.4 shooting percentage in 2016-17 when he set career highs with 43 goals and 78 points in 82 appearances. After that campaign, many pointed to his shooting percentage as being unsustainable and used that as part of their argument that he would decline -- which he did in 2018-19 to 24 goals and 56 points. Karlsson is extremely unlikely to continue to cash in on nearly a third of his shots, so the goals will probably dry up in the not-too-distant future, which makes him a potential sell-high candidate.

When it comes to someone to pick up, Michael Amadio, who had two assists Friday, is a decent candidate. His value is linked to the availability of Nicolas Roy (undisclosed) and Chandler Stephenson (upper body), though. With those two out, Amadio is seeing some use in a top-six capacity, but that will change once one or both of Vegas’ injured centers return.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 07 Oct 2023 20:41:10 +0000

Review: For the first time, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin played a full 82 games in the same year and the Penguins’ other star forward, Jake Guentzel, appeared in 78 contests. You’d think that’d be a recipe for success, but instead Pittsburgh finished with a 40-31-11 record, narrowly missing the playoffs for the first time since 2006. The supporting cast just wasn’t good enough. Other than their main three forwards and Rickard Rakell, who had 28 goals and 60 points, no member of the Penguins reached the 50-point milestone, resulting in the squad finishing 16th in goals per game (3.18). Pittsburgh likely would have still squeaked into the postseason had Tristan Jarry enjoyed a repeat of his 2021-22 success, but after recording a 2.42 GAA and .919 save percentage in 58 contests during that campaign, he dropped to a 2.90 GAA and a .909 save percentage in 47 starts in 2022-23. Pittsburgh also lacked an appealing alternative as Casey DeSmith posted a 3.17 GAA and .905 save percentage in 38 contests. The Penguins consequently wasted a season at a time when they’re running out of opportunities to make a Stanley Cup run in the Crosby/Malkin/Letang era.

What’s Changed? Pittsburgh made a huge splash by acquiring Erik Karlsson in exchange primarily for draft picks, though the Penguins also moved Mikael Granlund, Jeff Petry and DeSmith in the process for cap purposes. Outside of that, Pittsburgh signed Alex Nedeljkovic to serve as their new backup goaltender and lured free agent defenseman Ryan Graves with a six-year, $27 million deal.

What would success look like? Getting back to the playoffs will likely involve a strong year out of Karlsson. Expecting him to get 25 goals and 101 points like he did with the Sharks in 2022-23 is overly optimistic, but a 60–70-point showing is obtainable. Between Karlsson and Letang, the Penguins should also be able to deploy two strong power-play units after finishing in the middle of the pack with a 21.7% power-play conversion rate last year. Combine that with even a modest rebound from Jarry and the Penguins would have the makings of a strong team.

What could go wrong? That’s provided that Karlsson stays healthy, which is far from certain given his lengthy injury history. Then of course there’s the fact that Crosby and Letang are 36 while Malkin is 37. How much longer can that trio really lead the charge in Pittsburgh? On top of that, Malkin being healthy has been a rarity, so even if he remains effective, expecting anything close to a repeat of his 2022-23 82-game showing would be surprising. Any significant injury to Crosby or Malkin might also push Jeff Carter into a second-line role, which is not a job the 38-year-old is still suited for based on his 29-point showing last season.

Top Breakout Candidate: With the Penguins going all-in on the present, they lack significant breakout candidates. That said, if the Penguins run into injury troubles, which is certainly plausible given the team’s age, Samuel Poulin will be one to watch as a forward who might step in and turn heads, though after missing most of 2022-23 to focus on his mental health, he’s expected to start the campaign in the AHL.

Forwards

Sidney Crosby

Sidney Crosby showed little sign of slowing as he finished his 18^th season, every one of which has come above a point per game. Crosby still possesses the vision and playmaking of an elite puck distributor. His 1.6 assist per hour of even-strength hockey was tops on the Penguins. Per All Three Zones, he was in the 99^th percentile of NHL forwards with regards to high-danger passes and in-zone shot assists. While his defense took a step back from what we’ve become accustomed to, the Penguins found themselves in a lot of situations that required shootout-style approaches to the game. While the Penguins power-play had periods of frustration, Crosby is ultimately still the straw that stirs the drink on the man-advantage. Crosby still elevates every linemate he plays with based on his ability to draw attention to himself and dish no-look, last minute passes to the tape of his teammates. Crosby exhibited the same ability to hound and steal the puck as he has throughout his career last season. Expect more of the same this season and at least one more sensational moment that comes via a ridiculous backhand goal.

Evgeni Malkin

Repeated lower-body injuries may have robbed Evgeni Malkin of some of his explosive gallop through the neutral zone, but they haven’t stopped him from being one of the most consistent offensive threats in the league. In 2021-22, Malkin played in every single game and went over a point per game for the season. Like his counterpart in Crosby, most of Malkin’s game has been immune to Father Time. Last year was different for Malkin in that he shot less and passed more. Per the All Three Zones project, Malkin was in the 97^th percentile of NHL forwards for primary shot assists and only in the 64^th percentile for individual shot rates. Malkin’s defensive performance last season was once again not his strongest point, but it was more in line with team average than in prior years. Overall, Malkin still has the desire to take a game over. He is relentless in attack, difficult to move off the puck, and willing to take risks to elevate the play of himself and his teammates. If his increase in passing the puck holds through this year, he could achieve 800 career assists. Overall, Malkin will be the central focus of the second line and may get the boost of playing with Erik Karlsson on the blueline this season.

Jake Guentzel

The son of a great coach, Guentzel is coming off another year where he consistently exhibited a high hockey IQ and stayed a step ahead of most of his peers in terms of his offensive approach. Guentzel is a rare combination of elite playmaker and finisher as evidenced by his results in the All Three Zones project. Guentzel was in the 98^th percentile for in-zone shot rates and in the 91^st percentile for in-zone shot assists at even-strength. He is difficult to mark in tight spaces and uses open spaces to his advantage. The Penguins power-play has an expected-goal generation rate that is 2.63 goals per higher when Guentzel is on the ice versus when he is not. His defensive impacts have been notoriously low and bottomed out last year, but are offset by the number of chances, shots, and opportunities he creates at the other end of the ice. The Penguins routinely control the flow of the play and dominate possession when Guentzel makes an appearance. An offseason injury forced him to undergo surgery on his ankle that will cause him to miss at least a portion of the Penguins first few weeks. Overall, the Penguins will be looking at him to generate scoring chances across his entire line when he returns to the lineup.

Rickard Rakell

Rakell’s first full season with the Penguins saw him float around the top six but primarily find a home affixed to the side of Sidney Crosby. Rakell spent a lot of time in battle areas of the ice creating space for his linemates. He also garnered a lot of second and third opportunities and assisted greatly with increasing the shot volume of his line. Per the All Three Zones project, he was in the 97^th percentile of NHL forwards with regard to his impact on in-zone shots. His 28 goals last season were the most he’s scored since the 2017-18 season. He found himself as a regular on the Penguins top power-play unit, especially as a viable net-front option. While no slouch defensively, this hasn’t been his hallmark and he has not killed penalties so far for head coach Mike Sullivan. He has the utility to be able to play alongside either of the top two center options in Pittsburgh due to his straightforward approach and ability to get to the difficult areas. The expectation is that he’ll be back on the top line alongside Crosby again this season, serving in a role that can both grind pucks out and forecheck effectively.

Bryan Rust

Bryan Rust’s 2021-22 season was one that saw him struggle in a variety of offensive buckets. Certainly, his finishing ability was a part of that, but he also suffered a regression in other areas of puck support ability. Rusts’ best seasons have come when he’s carrying the puck and generating opportunities off of the rush, an area where he took a step back again last season. His rush offense put him in the 46^th percentile of NHL forwards per the All Three Zones project. All of these regressions saw Rust score almost a half a point per game less than the previous season and his lowest goal total since 2018-19. The good news is that he’ll have another crack inside the top six for Pittsburgh this season and potentially some power-play time as well. Rust being in the top six means he’ll also get one of Erik Karlsson or Kris Letang to aid him offensively, a duo that will certainly help Rust out from an opportunity perspective. He has strong shot totals to build off of and will have a new landscape of linemates as well.

Reilly Smith

Reilly Smith makes his way to Pittsburgh via a trade with Las Vegas that was the first official move of the new general manager of the Pittsburgh Penguins Kyle Dubas. Smith was remarkably consistent from start to finish last season, netting 26 goals and 56 points in 78 games and following that up with 14 points in 22 playoff games. Smith’s biggest strengths last season were driving to high danger scoring areas and supporting the play via transition both out of the defensive zone and into the offensive zone. Smith is extremely comfortable with the puck on his stick, makes sound decisions with it in transition, and should have no issue playing anywhere within Pittsburgh’s top-six forward group as a result. Early expectations are that he will make his debut flanking Evgeni Malkin, giving him a world class center to feed pucks towards in transition. Smith played on the power-play and penalty kill last season and was effective in both roles, but truly made his way on the penalty kill side, where his presence resulted in the Golden Knights having an expected goals against rate that was over one whole goal less with him on the ice. Smith will certainly get a lot of minutes in the Pittsburgh top six with a lot of talent surrounding him, His simple, north-to-south approach should be a fine addition to that group.

Lars Eller

Lars Eller is another fresh face in the Pittsburgh bottom-six as a part of Kyle Dubas’ reclamation project for that portion of his roster. Eller’s offensive skills have taken a hit as he’s aged, but his defensive impacts are still strong, and the Penguins will be hoping he can help patch up what was an otherwise porous bottom-six forward group. The data from the All Three Zones project paints Eller as a player that still maintains an above-average ability to distribute the puck and I believe we see that on video as well. Eller’s In Zone Shot Assists and High-Danger Shot Assists were both in the 73^rd percentile of NHL forwards. An injury-shortened season two years ago saw his defensive impacts bottom out, but outside of that anomaly, he’s been reliably consistent in his ability to keep the opposition in check. Eller had the second highest rate of shots off of the forecheck and cycle at even-strength. He also boasted strong numbers in the bucket of assisting his defense with exiting the defensive zone, a testament to the attention he pays to that side of the ice. The Penguins won’t be asking him for any miracles as much as they need steady, consistent play that doesn’t end up in the defensive zone for the majority of the time.

Noel Accari

Noel Acciari has been acquired again by Kyle Dubas, this time with the Pittsburgh Penguins on a new three-year contract that will pay him an average of two million dollars per year. Acciari does all of the things well that you’d come to expect from a bottom-six forward. He plays with energy, hits a lot, blocks a lot of shots, and other momentum stealing skillsets. Acciari will likely play a role on the penalty-kill in Pittsburgh as well, an area that needs a rebuild after inconsistent struggles last year and a lack of a sense of urgency. Acciari, like the other players Dubas’ has brought in for the bottom six, boasts strong defensive returns and keeps the puck out of the defensive zone altogether. He is more of a puck retriever than a puck carrier but doesn’t handle the puck in an uncomfortable fashion. His pace and north-to-south approach put him in positions to generate a lot of takeaways for his team. Expect Acciari to feature for Mike Sullivan as a true utility forward that can fill in gaps up and down the lineup without causing great drop off.

Matt Nieto

Matt Nieto arrives to Pittsburgh from free agency on a new two-year contract as a part of a re-built bottom-six forward group in that is one of the reasons the Penguins were on the outside looking in last year. Nieto spent time mixed between San Jose and Colorado, but in both locations, he was a strong defensive forward and took great care of the puck. Nieto plays strong in wall battles and comes away with pucks that elongate possession. His defensive impacts were good for the 91^st percentile of NHL forwards and that is felt even more on the penalty kill where he reduced Colorado’s expected goal against rates by over two goals per hour upon arriving there. Nieto is a 200-foot player that should provide a huge boost to a Penguins bottom-six that needed to be deployed in a careful and particular fashion last year. From a possession and expected goals perspective, Nieto had an uncharacteristically rough go from the perspective of controlling the play. As a member of the Sharks, he had the fourth highest rate of shots off of the forecheck and cycle per the All Three Zones project. Pittsburgh will be hoping he can replicate those results and continue his defensive impacts in their bottom six for the upcoming season.

Defense

Erik Karlsson

Erik Karlsson is coming off of a Norris Trophy winning season that produced offensive results the likes of which we have not seen in some time. He crossed the 100-point threshold in remarkable fashion and exhibited a high level of manipulation with the puck on his stick, devastating opposing skaters and goaltenders alike. In All Three Zones data, Karlsson found himself in the 100^th percentile for primary assists, scoring chance assists, neutral zone shot assists, shot contributions, and defensive finishing, all at even-strength. Karlsson’s defensive impacts are notoriously poor as he’s deployed and functions as more of a “fourth forward” than a defenseman. This isn’t to say that Karlsson is inept defensively. He’s just more unavailable defensively. He has recoverability and gap control to be effective, he’s just usually off pinching somewhere or attempting to kick-start breakouts. Karlsson’s deployment in Pittsburgh should differ drastically from his deployment in San Jose as he’ll be sharing minutes with Letang. This should lessen the burden on Karlsson and give him one of Crosby or Malkin to play with on the forward side, giving him another generational talent to work with there. A repeat of 100+ points may be a big ask, but Pittsburgh can certainly provide the environment for him to make an honest attempt at it.

Kris Letang

Kris Letang is coming off a tumultuous year health-wise that ultimately ended with him receiving a Masterson Trophy for his battle against another stroke and his return to the lineup in the face of those challenges. This year, Letang will once again be a leader of both the team and the defensive group, albeit with a lot of fresh and notorious faces surrounding him. Letang’s previous legacy partner in Brian Dumoulin has moved on as the magic between them had clearly expired. Letang is still an offensive-minded defenseman who supports the play offensively among the league’s best defensemen. This is evidenced by his offensive impacts falling in the 90^th percentile of NHL defensemen last season. On the flip side, Letang struggled defensively and his decision making around joining in on offense was not as sound as previous seasons. This year, he will have a new partner in one of Ryan Graves or Marcus Pettersson and that should afford him an ability to act more innately on his instincts. Letang’s role on the power-play is now a question mark with the arrival of Erik Karlsson. Overall, despite age making its impact on his results, Letang is still an above-average offensive talent that can bolster a power-play and is still elite at retrieving pucks successfully in his defensive zone.

Marcus Pettersson

Marcus Pettersson was a calming influence on the Penguins blueline last season and posted strong defensive returns that by and large flew under the radar. Pettersson’s competence defensively coupled with his ability to calmly and effectively handle and shoot the puck put his projected WAR value for the season in the 91^st percentile of NHL defensemen. That is top line quality results and impressive given Pettersson’s unassuming nature on the ice. A strong skater with sound understanding of the game, Pettersson uses a long reach and gap control to manage zone entries well. Per the All Three Zones project, his success rate on zone exits put him in the 70^th percentile among defensemen, a trait you do not usually see among defensive-minded players. Pettersson showcased a lot of ability in distributing the puck last season as he reached a career high of 28 assists. His even-strength primary assist rate was in the 98^th percentile of NHL defensemen. He led the Penguins in blocks and had the second lowest expected goals against rate on the team. The assumption is that Pettersson may draw the assignment to play with Erik Karlsson, which will certainly be a test of his ability to maintain the defensive blueline and keep strong on-ice results in his own end.

Ryan Graves

Ryan Graves arrives in Pittsburgh via free agency, the first of two big moves from Kyle Dubas to revamp his defensive unit. Graves is a steady, consistent performance that typically showcases his best results defensively, although last year that was a different story. Graves is not a physical defenseman by any means but can handle the puck and use his stick to break up chances effectively. He traditionally has a low number of hits and last season per the All Three Zones project he was the definition of league average regarding his ability to exit the defensive zone with possession and retrieve the puck successfully. Graves is an active shooter that routinely pinches deep to garner high-quality scoring chances. His puck distribution isn’t his strong suit, and he was in the 8^th percentile among defensemen with regard to his ability to set up scoring chances with passes. Graves will likely be tasked with playing alongside Kris Letang and while that will certainly come with an increase of quality of competition, it should also lower the burden on him offensively. Overall, expect Graves to participate in every zone, support transition well, and provide a safe presence to the top six of the Penguins defensive group.

Goaltender

Tristan Jarry

The Pittsburgh Penguins finally did it – during the 2022-23 season, the perennial playoff team fell out of contention and missed the postseason for the first time since 2006, with starter Tristan Jarry’s “good enough” performance not quite hitting that milestone for the first time since he took over as the team’s number one. He wasn’t actively bad, but the aging core Pittsburgh trotted out combined with some ill-timed injuries and some surprisingly strong performances in the Metro out of Long Island and New Jersey to push both Pennsylvania teams onto the golf course a little early this year.

Jarry does an effective job bouncing back every time he puts up a year of slightly underwhelming numbers, and he’s never truly dropped into actively bad territory – which is good news for Penguins fans who hope the team will be able to retool and return to contention this year. But curiously enough, Jarry will have to head out into the crease this year as the far more reliable option – because he has a reclamation project in Alex Nejedlkovic joining him as his new tandem partner following Casey DeSmith’s departure.

Projected starts: 55-60

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – WASHINGTON CAPITALS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 22:21:55 +0000

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 03: Capitals defenseman John Carlson (74) carries the puck out of his own end during the Carolina Hurricanes versus Washington Capitals National Hockey League game on March 3, 2022 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Alex Ovechkin

Incredibly, Ovechkin scored 50 goals again last season, his 36-year-old season. He is up to 780 goals, which puts him 114 goals behind Wayne Gretzky to be the all-time leading goal-scorer in NHL history. While the expectation might be that a player in his late thirties can’t possibly be expected to score enough to challenge that record, Ovi just showed that it is unwise to count him out. While he remains an elite finisher, Ovechkin’s defensive play is suspect, but that may not matter much. He is still a massive physical presence on the ice and last season was the 12^th time in the past 15 seasons that Ovechkin recorded more than 150 hits. The Capitals have outscored opponents in seven of the past eight seasons with Ovechkin on the ice during 5-on-5 play and he is an all-time great shot generator, putting up more than four shots on goal per game in nine of the past 10 seasons. Looking ahead to this season, Ovechkin may not have playmaking center Nicklas Backstrom to feed him the puck and it might be a lot to ask for OVechkin to surpass a point per game, but he has scored more than 45 goals in seven of the past eight full seasons and can probably find a way to do it again and push a point per game in the process.

Evgeny Kuznetsov

There were questions about Kuznetsov following the 2020-2021 season and what kind of future he might have in Washington, but then he went out and put up 78 points in 79 games last season, playing more than 20 minutes per game for the first time in his career. He shot the puck more and scored 32 of his points on special teams. With Nicklas Backstrom expected to miss most of the season, Kuznetsov will be hugely important as Washington’s No. 1 center. He remains abysmal in the faceoff circle, winning 43.5% of his draws last season, which matched his career average, but it also tends to offset his steep offensive zone usage, with more than 70% of his 5-on-5 faceoffs coming in the offensive zone for two seasons running. Considering his declining production in the previous few seasons, it might be asking too much for Kuznetsov to be a point-per-game scorer again, but he should be around the 70-point range.

T.J. Oshie

The 35-year-old winger battled injuries and his production fell off significantly last season and, at his age, it is fair to wonder if he can bounce back. Oshie is a six-time 20-goal scorer who has played a hard game throughout his career, the player who plays proverbially bigger than his size, and that can take its toll. Last season, Oshie generated 1.75 shots on goal per game, the second-lowest rate of his career, and he was outscored during 5-on-5 play for only the second time in his career. Overall, Oshie has excelled in Washington, playing a strong complementary role around the Capitals’ stars but that window could be closing. Still, if he can stay reasonably healthy and maintain his role on the Washington power play, at least 20 goals and 40 points could still be within Oshie’s grasp.

Anthony Mantha

A towering and talented but enigmatic winger, Mantha is a 27-year-old who has topped out at 48 points twice in his career, though he did score 39 points in 43 games during the 2019-2020 season. Mantha would seem to have the skill to provide more but last season was something of a bust when he missed four months after requiring shoulder surgery. He did have 17 points in 27 games once he returned to the lineup, and at his best he is surely the type of player who could respond to a bigger role. If the Capitals are going to remain competitive this season, they will likely need a bounce-back season from Mantha. 20 goals and 45 points is a fair expectation if Mantha is healthy but that is hardly a sure thing.

Dylan Strome

Despite scoring a career-high 48 points last season, Chicago did not offer Strome a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent, so the 25-year-old center found an opportunity in Washington, where they needed to improve their offensive production down the middle of the ice, especially considering Nicklas Backstrom’s absence. It has taken some time for him to find his niche in the NHL, but it appears that Strome has found a way to take advantage of his size and playmaking ability. Even if his skating has been an issue at times in his career, he showed last season that he can thrive if given the right opportunity and he played a career-high 17:26 per game while winning a career high 52.3% of his faceoffs. He scored 27 points in his last 28 games for Chicago and while that might not be sustainable over a large sample, Strome should be able to contribute 45 points in a complementary role.

Connor Brown

Acquired from the Ottawa Senators for a second-round pick, Brown has established that he is a capable of handling major responsibility in the NHL, playing more than 20 minutes per game in two of the past three seasons. Brown came into the league as a sixth-round pick and has had to earn his role. At 6-feet, 185 pounds, he is not the biggest nor the fastest, but he is smart and competitive. Brown is also skilled enough to contribute offensively, with two 20-goal seasons to his credit yet strong enough defensively to be a primary penalty killer for nearly his entire career. Brown’s shot rate dipped last season, falling below two shots per game for the first time since 2018-2019, but he has never been a high-end shot generator. Moving to Washington, Brown should maintain his significant role and could provide 40-plus points in addition to filling a valuable two-way need for the Capitals.

Lars Eller

A 33-year-old center who has been a reliable third-line pivot for many years, Eller has been able to move up the depth chart in spurts to fill in as the second line center, but he is better suited to the third-line role. He has contributed more than 30 points in four of the past five seasons and had 23 points in 44 games during the shortened 2020-2021 season. Eller excelled in Washington’s 2018 Stanley Cup run, scoring 18 points in 24 games, but his track record is long enough to show that pace will not hold over a larger sample of games. But, as a pivot who has handled more than 16 minutes per game for each of the past four seasons, he can still be counted on for 30-plus points again.

Conor Sheary

An undersized 30-year-old winger, Sheary is crafty and competitive, a tenacious forechecker. He scored 19 goals and 43 points last season, his most productive year since 2016-2017, so he is going to be relied upon to provide secondary scoring again this season. He does not generate a lot of shots, producing more than two shots per game just once in his career, so production can come and go depending on how his percentages fall. It would be safe to look to Sheary for 30 points, with the understanding that he has potential to contribute more depending on the role that he ultimately ends up playing next season.

Marcus Johansson

The 31-year-old winger returned to where it all began for him when he was traded from Seattle to Washington before the trade deadline. While Johansson remains a quality passer with good offensive instincts, he is not the player that he was in his first tour with the Capitals. However, Johansson is skilled and versatile enough to help the cause, fitting in a top nine role. He has taken four minor penalties in 105 games over the past two seasons, so he is not exactly playing on the edge. Johansson has not scored more than 30 points in a season since 2016-2017, so that is probably the top end of expectations for his production this season.

DEFENSE

John Carlson

One of the most productive defensemen in the league, Carlson has scored 328 points in the past five seasons, which is 25 more points than any other defenseman (Roman Josi has 303) in that period of time. 131 of those points have come on the power play, where Carlson has been a fixture at the point. Even though he is 6-foot-3 with a sturdy build, Carlson is not a particularly physical defender and yet he is an effective top-pair defenseman who quarterbacks the power play. He has finished in the Top 10 in Norris Trophy voting in four of the past five seasons, with three of those seasons in the Top 5. He is 32 years old so, like many in the Capitals’ core, his window of productivity could be drawing to a close. It is just a matter of how gradually that production declines. Based on recent seasons, though, Carlson should be expected to have another high-scoring season, with something like 15-plus goals and 70 points.

Dmitry Orlov

An underrated but quietly reliable defenseman, Orlov scored a career high 12 goals and 35 points last season, but he has also played more than 20 minutes per game in four of the past five seasons and plays a physical game, recording more than 100 hits in six of the past seven seasons. More importantly, he has consistently driven positive results, with the Capitals outshooting, out-chancing and outscoring the opposition with him on the ice. The 31-year-old is still going to play a big role on the Capitals blueline and that ought to put him in position to score double-digit goals and 30-plus points.

Nick Jensen

A quietly effective right shot defenseman, Jensen scored a career-high 21 points last season, but he also recorded 135 hits, which was far more than he ever had previously. He formed a very effective pairing with Orlov and the Capitals outscored the opposition 49-22 during 5-on-5 play with that tandem on the ice. Even if Jensen is having a positive impact for the Capitals, he is still not likely to contribute much offensively, so 20 points is about the high-water mark for his production.

Martin Fehervary

The 22-year-old defenseman brought a physical element to the Capitals blueline, recording 251 hits. While Fehervary moves the puck well enough, his defensive play still has room for improvement, but that’s okay, he just finished his first NHL season. He has room to grow and, since he has paired with Carlson, the Capitals are set to give Fehervary the opportunity to develop into a top defender. He is not likely to surpass 20 points this season, but Fehervary recorded 251 hits as a rookie, so he has category specific appeal when it comes to fantasy.

GOALTENDING

Darcy Kuemper

The Colorado Avalanche got exactly what they asked for when they traded for Darcy Kuemper in the summer of 2021. Now, with Alex Ovechkin and Niklas Backstrom continuing to age, Washington is trying to stabilize their own in-net presence by snagging the veteran netminder as the crown jewel in 2022’s goaltending free agency class. He’ll arrive with the Capitals hoping to help them prolong their playoff window just a little bit more – and hopefully help the team bounce back after a disappointing year for both of the goaltenders they iced last season.

Kuemper remains an easy goaltender to feel confident about. For the last handful of years, he’s delivered exactly what he’s advertised to be; a big-bodied and capable starter who struggles to stay healthy but doesn’t derail his entire season when he has a particularly bad game. He sometimes runs the risk of reverting to older bad habits that permeated his game during his early seasons with the Minnesota Wild, oversliding on shots and challenging too aggressively for the size and stature he boasts, when he has a bad game – and rarely, when he allows a sloppy goal to kick things off, does his game level back out before that night’s sixty minutes of play are up. But he’s the ultimate goldfish goalie, bouncing back from ugly games remarkably and playing a more controlled, conservative style the majority of the time. He wasn’t Colorado’s star player last year, but he certainly didn’t need to be – and he didn’t make life any harder for the offense in front of him most nights, either. His biggest red flag remains his ability to stay healthy for heavier workloads, which could be a problem for Washington if backup Charlie Lindgren doesn’t manage to get the job done. But assuming he doesn’t need to play more than 55 games during the regular season, he should be exactly what the Capitals need.

Projected starts: 50-55

Charlie Lindgren

It’s clear that the Capitals hoped for a fresh start after the struggles they saw from Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek last season. But if Darcy Kuemper is the known entity they acquired to replace last year’s tandem, former Montreal prospect Charlie Lindgren is the wild card. He boasts just 29 career NHL games under his belt at the age of 28 – and while last year’s numbers in St. Louis were promising, his sampling of games over the last half-dozen years range from elite NHL promise to particularly ugly.

Lindgren plays a smooth-looking style that combines fluid movements and well-paced skating with a strongly established habit of staying well within the blue paint. It’s clear his game was developed in the same Stephane Waite system that developed Carey Price; he isn’t limited in his ability to move around within the crease, but he’s rarely caught playing too aggressively and prefers to rely on tracking the puck instead of reacting and exploding movement-wise. It seemed to take him a while to really hit his stride with his style, missing shots that it looked like faster, more ‘dazzling’ goaltenders might have gotten to over him. But it paid off in the end; while it’s hard to look at his overall career numbers and feel confident that he’s a sure bet, it’s a lot easier to bank on him succeeding when looking at how his game has progressed over the last few years. And if Darcy Kuemper can stay healthy, he won’t need to showcase his talents often enough to worry about him backsliding or hitting long slumps; for Washington fans, that should come as a welcome relief.

Projected starts: 30-35

2022 NHL PLAYOFFS: FLORIDA VS. WASHINGTON – Containing high powered Cats attack will be key for Caps

Scott Cullen — Sun, 01 May 2022 13:30:05 +0000

WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 27: Panthers center Aleksander Barkov (16) watches the puck as Capitals left wing Alexander Alex Ovechkin (8) closes in during the Florida Panthers vs. Washington Capitals on November 27, 2019 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

FLORIDA vs. WASHINGTON

The Florida Panthers recorded 120 points this season to win the Presidents’ Trophy and their reward for finishing with the league’s best record is to face a team that posted an even 100 points, the Washington Capitals.

Washington is going to have a hard time containing Florida’s attack, but if the Capitals want to make a series out of this, they will have to find a way. Easier said than done.

Forwards

As the league’s highest scoring team, averaging 4.11 goals per game, the Panthers have an abundance of riches up front. Nine Panthers forwards scored at least 18 goals this season, including Mason Marchment, who had 18 in just 54 games, and Claude Giroux, who finished with 21 goals even though he recorded just three goals in 18 games for the Panthers after he was acquired from Philadelphia.

Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov are top-tier talents, but mixing in Giroux, Marchment, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, Anthony Duclair, and Anton Lundell there is so much skill that the Panthers can afford to send out shift disturbers like Ryan Lomberg, Eetu Luostarinen, and Patric Hornqvist on the fourth line. That exceptional depth makes it really difficult to ever shut down the Panthers and it is why the Capitals are going to have to turn this series into a slog because there is little reason to believe they can compete in a track meet with Florida.

The Capitals are not equipped to outgun the Panthers, especially if Alex Ovechkin is not healthy to start the series. While Ovechkin had another monster season, scoring 50 goals, he was the only Washington player with more than 25 goals. Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson both scored 24 but the attack gets thin very quickly. Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, and Anthony Mantha each missed significant portions of the season and have not been at peak production since returning to the lineup. That is hardly a roster that can readily trade chances with the highest scoring team in the league.

If Washington is going to neutralize the Panthers attack, it will not be merely up to the defense. It will be forwards like Garnet Hathaway, Johan Larsson, Nic Dowd, and Lars Eller playing at their shot suppressing best. It might not be pretty, but it is also the most likely path for the Capitals to make this a competitive series. That, and hoping that Wilson and Hathaway can leave a physical imprint and make the series messy.

Defense

Florida has built up a sturdy defensive unit, so strong that it has been able to withstand an injury to No. 1 defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who may not be ready for the start of the playoffs. Mackenzie Weegar has quietly been one of the top defensemen in the league over the past couple of seasons while Gustav Forsling, Ben Chiarot, Brandon Montour, and Radko Gudas form a capable core with Lucas Carlsson and Robert Hagg as depth options. Gudas and Chiarot bring a physical presence that will be needed against Washington but, as a group, they can move the puck effectively. Naturally, they would be even better with a healthy Ekblad, but they should be able to handle the Capitals.

The Capitals have a capable defense, led by John Carlson, but it is not a prime shutdown group. Dmitry Orlov has been a steady performer and may have had his best season. While Nick Jensen, Justin Schultz, Martin Fehervary, and Trevor van Riemsdyk do not necessarily strike fear into the hearts of opposing forwards, it is a solid enough group overall. However, solid enough overall is not quite what the doctor ordered when it comes to shutting down the highest scoring team in the league.

Goaltending

Sergei Bobrovsky is a tough goaltender to figure out. He has won the Vezina Trophy twice. He has had below league average goaltending numbers in the previous two seasons before bouncing back this season to at least finish above average. He also has no playoff success to speak of. His longest playoff run was in 2018-2019, with Columbus, when he had a .925 save percentage in 10 games. It was the only postseason of Bobrovsky’s career in which he finished with a save percentage higher than .910 and that rightfully causes some concern.

The good news for the Panthers is that they can turn to rookie Spencer Knight, if needed. He started slowly, culminating in a mid-December loss to Ottawa in which he allowed eight goals on 38 shots. Since then, Knight has a .919 save percentage in 19 games and is an easy option for the Panthers to consider if Bobrovsky falters.

Washington’s goaltending is not even as neat and tidy as Florida’s crease situation. Vitek Vanecek has been better than Ilya Samsonov overall this season but neither one has made a stirring case to be the No. 1 option in the playoffs. Vanecek may get the first start, but it would be a surprise if both Capitals goalies were not involved in this series.

Special Teams

For years, the Capitals power play, with No. 8 pulling the trigger in his familiar spot, has been one of the league’s best, but that is no longer the case. The Capitals ranked 20^th in 5v4 goal rate, with 6.85 GF/60, and that presents a relative problem when facing a Panthers side that has scored 9.29 goals per 60 minutes of 5v4 play, the third highest rate in the league.

Washington’s penalty killing has been better, ranked in the top 10 both in terms of rate of shot attempts and expected goals against during 4v5 play. Florida’s penalty killing this season has been average, ranking 16^th in both shot attempts allowed and expected goals against per 60 minutes of 4v5 play.

Conclusion

A matchup against the Panthers would be daunting at the best of times, but the Capitals without Ovechkin or with Ovechkin playing through an upper-body injury are not in the best position to pull off the upset. Panthers in 5.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY HOCKEY POINTS: Sleepers, Rookies, and Potential Breakthrough Players – Middle to Late Rounds

Scott Cullen — Fri, 01 Oct 2021 14:02:42 +0000

Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, a look at players to consider in the middle and later rounds of drafts this season. Some sleeper candidates, rookies, potential breakthrough players, but all in the name of finding value on draft day. Evgeni Dadonov, Michael Bunting, Jonathan Dahlen, Viktor Arvidsson, and Chandler Stephenson are some value plays with potential.

#1 Before managing 13 goals in 55 games for Ottawa last season, Vegas Golden Knights winger Evgeni Dadonov had three straight seasons with at least 25 goals. His shot rate dropped from 8.2 shots/60 to 6.0 shots/60 during 5-on-5 play but a drop in power-play production sunk his season. In 2019-2020, Dadonov had 17 power play points, including 11 goals, for Florida. Last season, in more than 159 power play minutes, Dadonov had zero goals and one assist. Vegas might offer him better opportunities, and they need his offense with Alex Tuch out of the lineup while he recovers from shoulder surgery.

#2 Washington Capitals center Lars Eller has yet to score 40 points in an NHL season, topping out at 39 points in 2019-2020, but that was in 69 games of a shortened season. Last season, Eller had 23 points in 44 games, his second straight season with better than 0.50 points per game, and the reason this has some importance is that the Washington Capitals could be missing Nicklas Backstrom for a while at the start of the season and if that is the case, Eller could find a more significant role, at least early in the season.

#3 There were 10 players to score at least half a goal per game last season. All 10 might not have survived a full 82-game schedule but it was the lowest number of players with at least half a goal per game (minimum 20 games) since 2016-2017, when there were only three. It would appear, then, that finding goals at the higher end of the scale has generally been easier over the past four seasons.

OTTAWA, ON - SEPTEMBER 29: Toronto Maple Leafs left wing Michael Bunting (58) closes on the play during first period National Hockey League preseason action between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators on September 29, 2021, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

#4 A player who just missed scoring 0.50 goals per game last season was new Toronto Maple Leafs winger Michael Bunting, who had 10 goals in 21 games for Arizona. It would be unreasonable to expect Bunting to score on 26.3% of his shots again, especially over a full season, but his brief success with Arizona was very much predicated on going to the dirty areas to score on tips and rebounds and that could conceivably secure him a valuable spot in Toronto’s top six.

#5 After two promising seasons to start his career, St. Louis Blues center and right winger Robert Thomas saw his production drop dramatically last season. Some of it was due to injury as he only played in 33 games but, in the games that he did play, Thomas saw his numbers decrease across the board. Most troubling was that his 5-on-5 rate of shots per 60 minutes dropped from 5.3 in 2019-2020 to 2.8 last season. Thomas is a decent pick for a bounce-back season but part of that will require him to generate more shots.

#6 It appears that the San Jose Sharks are going to give winger Jonathan Dahlen a prime opportunity to get his NHL career going. The 23-year-old was drafted by Ottawa and traded to Vancouver. After scoring 35 points in 59 AHL games, he returned to Sweden to play for Timra in the Allsvenskan league and Dahlen put up 61 goals and 148 points in 96 games over the past two seasons. It is a big jump from the Allsvenskan to the NHL but it also looks like the Sharks are prepared to give Dahlen a shot in a scoring role right away so he could be in a position to have some success.

#7 With the Pittsburgh Penguins missing both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin at the start of the season, there could be an opening for 6-foot-6 forward Radim Zohorna to have in a significant role with the Penguins. Zohorna had four points (2 G, 2 A) in eight games for Pittsburgh last season, but he also had 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in 12 AHL games and 22 points (12 G, 10 A) in 21 Czech league games. As a late-round flier, might be worth a look.

#8 The 2020 first overall pick by the New York Rangers, Alexis Lafreniere had an underwhelming rookie season with 21 points (12 G, 9 A) in 56 games, but he got off to a terrible start with seven points in his first 27 games, improving to 14 points in the next 29 games. A small sign of progress? Maybe, but he will need to generate more shots. Last season, Lafreniere had 2.53 shots/60, which ranked 213^th out of 277 forwards to play at least 500 5-on-5 minutes, falling between Oskar Lindblom and Josh Archibald.

#9 The Nashville Predators are hoping to inject some life into former Vegas prospect Cody Glass, the sixth pick in the 2017 Draft. Glass has 22 points in 66 NHL games early in his career, but five of his nine goals have come on the power play. His even-strength production has been abysmal. Across the past two seasons, there are 415 forwards that have played at least 500 5-on-5 minutes, Glass ranks 406^th in points/60 (0.80) and 362^nd in shots/60 (5.19). There may be some potential lurking, but the early returns have been rough.

#10 The Minnesota Wild continue to move pieces around as they try to overcome a lack of production down the middle of the ice. One big hope would be for Marco Rossi, the 9^th pick in the 2020 Draft, to step into a prominent role but that could be asking a lot since Rossi missed all of last season suffering after-effects of Covid-19. But really, they need someone to bump out Victor Rask who had 0.26 individual expected goals per 60 last season. That ranked 276^th out of 277 forwards to play at least 500 5-on-5 minutes.

RALEIGH, NC - MARCH 20: Columbus Blue Jackets right wing Patrik Laine (29) with the puck during the 1st period of the Carolina Hurricanes vs Columbus Blue Jackets on March 20th, 2021 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC (Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Icon Sportswire)

#11 Who ranked 277^th? None other than Columbus’ Patrik Laine, just in case you weren’t sure if last season was enough of a disaster for a player who was an elite goal-scorer not so long ago but it is hard to become an elite goal scorer without generating legitimate scoring chances.

#12 In the past five seasons, the best goal per game rates for an individual season naturally have a lot of familiar names. Tops on the list is Auston Matthews, who scored 41 goals in 52 games last season (0.79 gpg), followed by the Rangers Mika Zibanejad in 2019-2020 (41 goals in 57 games) and then it became a gathering of premier scorers: Alex Ovechkin, Alex DeBrincat, David Pastrnak, Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, 13 Sidney Crosby and then, with the 13^th-best goals per game rate for a season in the past five years, it is Viktor Arvidsson. In 2018-2019, Arvidsson scored 34 goals in 58 games for Nashville. That might seem like a long way away after he scored 10 goals in 50 games last season but that high-end scoring potential is part of the reason that Los Angeles acquired him.

#13 Florida’s Sam Reinhart tied a career high with 25 goals in 54 games for Buffalo last season while scoring on a career-high 19.2% of his shots. While that percentage may regress, an opportunity to play alongside Aleksander Barkov with the Panthers may help him get even more opportunities. With Barkov on the ice last season, the Panthers had 65.2 shot attempts per 60 minutes. In Buffalo, the Sabres had 50.6 shot attempts per 60 during 5-on-5 play with Reinhart on the ice.

#14 In the past five seasons, Florida right winger Patric Hornqvist has scored 42 power play goals, tied for 21^st in the league with Toronto’s John Tavares. Hornqvist also had more than 100 hits for five straight seasons before finishing with 80 hits in 44 games last season. Power play production and consistent hit totals make Hornqvist a value play in the later rounds.

#15 On the quest for defensive depth, consider Florida blueliner Gustav Forsling, who has 6.99 shots per 60 minutes across the past two seasons, ranking fifth among all defensemen that played at least 500 5-on-5 minutes. His 1.04 points/60 in that time ranks 43^rd among 237 defensemen to meet that ice time qualification.

#16 Among defensemen to play at least 100 5-on-4 minutes last season, Shayne Gostisbehere ranked first in shot attempts per 60 minutes (31.67) and shots on goal per 60 minutes (16.12). Now in Arizona, can he be a factor on the Coyotes power play? It would presumably have to be on the second unit since Jakob Chychrun is set on PP1.

#17 Since scoring 40 goals for the Sabres in 2018-2019, and landing a monster contract as a result, Jeff Skinner has scored a total of 21 goals in 112 games. Only one of those goals has been on the power play, so maybe that is area to address in order to get him back on track. During 5-on-5 play, Skinner still creates chances. In the past two years, he has 10.1 shots per 60 minutes which ranks 15^th among forwards that have skated in at least 1000 5-on-5 minutes. His three most common linemate in the past two seasons has been Curtis Lazar so it is possible that the Sabres could try to give Skinner a better chance to succeed by actually trying to achieve that objective.

#18 Coming off a season in which he scored on a career-low 7.6% of his shots, on the way to 16 points (6 G, 10 A) in 51 games, Boston’s Charlie Coyle does have an opportunity to see a big offensive increase this season if he can win the Bruins’ second-line center job in the wake of David Krejci’s departure. Coyle is facing competition from Jack Studnicka and possibly Erik Haula but skating between Taylor Hall and Craig Smith could be a plum spot for whomever wins the job. When Hall and Smith were on the ice together last season, the Bruins earned 66.9% of the shot attempts and outscored opponents 13-1 during 5-on 5-on-5 play.

#19 Hockey life has changed rather dramatically for Vegas Golden Knights center Chandler Stephenson, who was a checker early in his career with Washington before he joined Vegas and landed on the top line, skating with Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone. When Stephenson is on the ice with Stone, during the past two seasons, Vegas has outscored opponents 65-29 (69.2 GF%) and in the past two years, Stephenson has scored 1.84 points per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, the same rate as Claude Giroux and more than Nicklas Backstrom. The upshot here is that the Golden Knights are probably not in a major rush to find someone else for that role because it is already working really well with Stephenson there.

#20 A name to keep in mind among defensemen, and one who does not get a power play boost, is Tampa Bay’s Erik Cernak. In the past two seasons, there have been 174 defensemen to have played at least 1000 5-on-5 minutes and Cernak ranks 10^th with 6.57 shots per 60 minutes. Mix that in with more than 2.7 hits per game during his career and Cernak does offer some deep league value.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

EASTERN DIVISION PLAYOFF REVIEW :Washington vs. Boston – Bergeron meets Ovie Again – Two Big Deadline Acquistions

Corey Sznajder — Fri, 14 May 2021 15:15:11 +0000

BOSTON, MA - MARCH 05: Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand (63) flips a backhander on net defended by Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson (74) during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Washington Capitals on March 5, 2021, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Eastern Conference Preview

In what was easily the strangest NHL season in recent memory, the newly formed East division didn’t bring many surprises. All four teams have been mainstays in the playoff picture for the past few years and are led by their usual veterans. Sidney Crosby is in the Hart discussion again, Alexander Ovechkin scored at a 40+ goal pace, the Patrice Bergeron line carried Boston and Mat Barzal had another outstanding season for the Islanders. It’s also the division that has the smallest gap between first and fourth place, with only six points separating the Penguins and the Islanders.

With all four teams firmly in the “win now” part of their Cup windows, handicapping the first round will be tough. Things like matchups and playing styles are going to be more of a factor than usual and we will break those down below.

Washington vs. Boston

The Caps and Bruins have been two of the most consistent teams in the league the past decade, at least during the regular season. Even with their core getting deep into their 30’s, Washington coasted their way to a seventh straight playoff appearance. That path for Boston, however, wasn’t as smooth. Offense from anyone not on their top line was hard to come by and they had a tough time adjusting to life without Zdeno Chara on their blue line. Then the trade deadline happened and suddenly they have a former MVP in Taylor Hall on their second line.

Bruins Offensive Turnaround at Deadline

At the time of the trade, Boston was the second worst team in the league in five-on-five Expected Goals For and barely scoring two goals per game. They have gone from that to ranking seventh in the league in Expected Goals over their last 25 games and sixth in Actual Goals, scoring just under three per game during five-on-five play. Boston has always been a team that lives and dies by what the Bergeron line does, but they’ve always had good support with David Krejci anchoring that second line. You might have to go all the way back to when Nathan Horton was on the team to find the last time he had a winger as good as Hall. This, along with players like Craig Smith scoring closer to their career averages, makes Boston a very tough draw in the first round?

Is it fair to just write off the Caps like this, though? After all, they’ve been the more consistent team this year and have been historically tough to predict because they always find a way to outscore their problems. A team that is on the positive side of the ledger in most stats and has elite shooting/playmaking talent to back it up should be getting more respect than they have, no? Yes, but the issue for Washington comes down to the matchup and how they survive their shifts against Boston’s top players.

With every team in the division being so close, it’s going to take small advantages & matchups that put one team over another. That x-factor is usually special teams or goaltending and while Washington can score their share of power play goals, Boston has a lot of things going for them at even strength and what could be a boost for them is how they create passing plays that are tough to defend.

Small Advantages and Matchups could Throw a Wrench

Even with their struggles, Boston has been one of the better teams in the league at generating both cross-slot passes and passing plays from behind the net, both of which lead to higher danger scoring chances. The problem for most of the year was that it was only Bergeron’s line creating these looks, making them a one-trick pony. With Hall in the fold now, they’ve added some help to their second line and now that Smith is starting to finish his chances, you have two very dangerous lines. Then you factor in the fourth man element that Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk and Mike Reilly add to their blue line & Washington’s defenders will have their hands full.

The solution for the Caps is probably going to come down to how well they can defend their blue line and how much damage they take from Bergeron regardless of who they match against them. Washington plays an aggressive style at their blue line and while it has worked for them this year, as one of the best teams in the league at preventing controlled entries and breaking up plays at their own blue line and could throw a wrench into how Boston wants to play, especially from Hall’s line.

Washington is in very good company when it comes to how to defend their blue line. They don’t give up many chances and it’s very hard to carry the puck in against them. If you’ve watched any of their games, you might notice how their two defensemen tend to converge on side of the rink to force dump-ins or kill plays at the line. It’s an aggressive way to defend & it requires a lot of attention to detail from the forwards, especially on the weak side because there has to support in case the defenseman gets beaten. Their blue line has enough sizable, fundamentally sound players that it’s usually not an issue, but Boston’s top-six has made worse players look silly in their heyday. It also poses a matchup question for the Caps, as they’ll need to make sure their wingers don’t fall asleep when Boston has the puck, because that’s usually the first domino to fall in an aggressive defending system like this.

The reality of this situation is that Bergeron’s line is likely going to win their matchup and while Washington has been good at preventing chances off the rush, their goal-scoring is what got them here. Boston has made a habit out of frustrating their opponent’s offense in the playoffs and while a main reason for that now plays for Washington, Boston’s defense hasn’t seen much of a dropoff in terms of preventing chances. Where is the Caps offense going to come from? The good news for the Caps is that they haven’t had to wait their turn for rush opportunities to create offense. The bad news for them is neither has Boston & they’ve been better recently compared to the rest of the season.

Two Similar Teams, Two Big Trade Dealine Acquisition, Ovechkin and his battles against Bergeron

Basically, you have two teams who are pretty similar in how they play, but Boston is just better, and their top players are more versatile in how they create offense. The one advantage might come down to matchups and who the Nicklas Backstrom/Anthony Mantha line gets deployed against. Laviolette isn’t a coach to get sucked into the hard matchup game, but with Ovechkin’s well-documented struggles against Bergeron, they’re going to have to find a way to survive those minutes and maybe look to take advantage of Coyle’s line, who has had a tough year regardless of who the wingers are.

With Hall doing so well in Boston, it’s easy to forget that Washington swapped Jakub Vrana for Anthony Mantha at the deadline and while Mantha hasn’t produced many points, he is someone who can work on Backstrom’s line as a guy who can produce off the forecheck & the rush. The trade-off for Washington is that he might be able to give you more a tight series like this where rush opportunities are limited & creating more dangerous chances off sustained possession is how Mantha can give Washington an advantage, especially if they draw tough matchups.

While they can strike off the rush, Washington is a team that prefers to keep the puck low and breakdown coverage by moving the puck from low to high and sneaking someone to the front of the net on rebounds. It’s not the most efficient way to go about things most times, but it does work for draining the clock & wasting shifts from the other team’s top line. One of their better players at doing this is third line center Lars Eller, who might end up drawing the Bergeron/Krejci matchup for this reason. It’s a tough draw for the Caps, but they are going to need to think a little outside the box to win this series rather than try to beat Boston at their own game.

The execution was off here, but you get an idea of what they’re trying to do. There’s a lot of meticulous, slow puck moving with the Caps & their cycles and while it’s deliberate, they do a pretty good job of getting someone open on the far side for a decent look. Boston’s had good success in the playoffs against teams like Carolina who do this often but struggled against shiftier teams like Tampa Bay. Washington’s game is more similar to Carolina, so generating those same looks against a more disciplined defensive team like Boston will be tough.

PREDICTIONS

Boston-Washington

Boston in 6

Fantasy hunches:

Pastrnak

Mantha

Hall

Capital One – Washington Capitals 2018-19 Season Preview

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 14 Sep 2018 14:32:25 +0000

REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – Throughout the Alex Ovechkin era, the Washington Capitals have fielded strong teams that have fallen apart in the playoffs. Washington exceeded 100 points six times over the span of nine seasons from 2008-09 through 2016-17 and didn’t make it past the second round once. They even secured back-to-back Presidents’ Trophies in 2015-16 and 2016-17 only to be eliminated in the playoffs by the Pittsburgh Penguins each time.

Expectations were a little lower for Washington in 2017-18 after their cap situation led to the Capitals giving up Marcus Johansson, Justin Williams, Daniel Winnik, and Karl Alzner in the summer of 2017 while Nate Schmidt went over to Vegas in the expansion draft and Kevin Shattenkirk left Washington after being a midseason acquisition for the Capitals’ 2017 playoff push. With all that talent lost, the Capitals did take a bit of a step back in the regular season with a still impressive 49-26-7 record, but their core of Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, and Braden Holtby clicked in the playoffs to lead Washington to its first Stanley Cup championship.

NO EXODUS – While Washington is a team up against the cap, its core will still be around to defend the championship. Re-signing John Carlson was their biggest task after he scored 15 goals and 68 points in 82 games last season while averaging 24:47 minutes per game. Washington was ultimately able to secure him to an eight-year, $64 million contract. To make that work, the Capitals unloaded the final season of Brooks Orpik’s five-year, $27.5 million contract to the Colorado Avalanche in a trade that also involved Washington trading Philipp Grubauer, who was a restricted free agent and had become overqualified for the backup gig he was stuck with in Washington.

Colorado then bought out Orpik’s contract, which eventually led to Washington bringing back the veteran defenseman on a one-year, $1 million contract that contains another $500,000 in potential performance bonuses.

Braden Holtby

Thanks to that maneuvering, the Capitals’ 2018-19 roster will be almost exactly the same as it was in 2017-18, minus Grubauer and Jay Beagle, who signed with Vancouver after scoring seven goals and 22 points in 79 games last season. The loss of their backup goaltender isn’t inconsequential though, especially given that Holtby struggled at times in 2017-18 and posted a 2.99 GAA and .907 save percentage in 54 regular season starts, which would have been a major talking point if not for his strong play in the postseason.

Pheonix Copley is expected to get an opportunity to serve as the backup goaltender and while he might be adequate in that role, he’s not the strong fallback option that Philipp Grubauer was. So the Capitals are going into the season without much of a safety net in that regard.

THE TODD REIRDEN ERA – While the team on the ice is largely the same, the bench will look very different. Veteran head coach Barry Trotz decided to leave the Washington Capitals immediately after leading them to a championship in favor of signing with the New York Islanders. In his place, Todd Reirden, was elevated to the head coaching position.

Reirden had been a member of Washington’s coaching staff for the last four seasons and served as an associate coach for the last two, so he seemed like a natural successor under the circumstances. Rather than be tasked with shaking things up, as is often the case with a new head coach, the goal here is for Reirden to provide a seamless transition from the Trotz era to his reign.

He has the burden of expectations, but is also inheriting a golden opportunity given the talented group he’ll get to work with.

OUTLOOK – When everything is working out for the Capitals, they have some of the top offensive weapons in the league, a strong defense, and an elite goaltender. There are times when some of those elements seem to be absent and even when they are firing on all cylinders, there are a handful of teams that can potentially stand up to them. It’s also important to note that successfully defending a championship is incredibly hard in the NHL. Pittsburgh managed to do it, but before the Penguins, the last team with back-to-back championships were the Detroit Red Wings back in 1997 and 1998. Still, the Capitals’ championship group has been left almost entirely intact and they remain in their prime, so they have to be regarded as one of the league’s top teams.