laurent brossoit – McKeen's Hockey

DADOUN: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (January 1st, 2024 to January 6th) – The Penguins complicated Guentzel situation – Flames, Hawks, Rangers, Flyers, Leafs, Canucks, Capitals, Jets to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 30 Dec 2023 16:05:17 +0000

Pittsburgh Penguins Left Wing Jake Guentzel (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

The Penguins are a weird team. In their last five games, they’ve earned a 7-0 victory and suffered a 7-0 defeat. They have the seventh best xGoals Differential/60 at 0.33 and their actual differential is nothing to scoff at either at plus-10 goals, but they’re currently sitting outside of a playoff spot with a 16-13-4 record. No other team has a double-digit differential in the positives without being in a position to make the postseason.

That 7-0 loss aside, the Penguins’ main issue is holding it together when things are close. Pittsburgh is just 5-5-4 in one-goal games and 4-5 in contests decided by two goals. To put that into perspective, Washington, which has a three-point lead on Pittsburgh in the standings despite a minus-13 goal differential, is 10-1-5 in one-goal games.

So, have the Penguins just been unlucky or do they lack that extra something that allows certain teams to perform in clutch situations? The latter would be particularly troubling given that Pittsburgh has been set up for one last playoff push before age catches up to Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang.

Complicating this conversation is Jake Guentzel’s contract situation. He’s playing out the final season of his team-friendly five-year, $30 million contract. The 29-year-old, who has surpassed each of the 35-goal and 70-point milestones three times and might do so again this campaign is in line for a big payday. At the same time, I have to wonder if there’s a bit of hesitation on Guentzel’s part to re-sign with Pittsburgh.

If Pittsburgh is struggling to even make the playoffs now when their aged core is still relatively effective, what will the situation be like in a couple of years? Most likely, by that point, the Penguins will be paying the toll for the win-now moves they’ve made. If Guentzel signs an eight-year deal with Pittsburgh, a lot of that time might be as a member of a rebuilding squad. Is that a problem for him? I don’t know, but it’s a potential wrinkle.

Either way, all isn’t lost for the Penguins in the short term. We’ve seen signs that this team still has life. They just need to be able to find that little extra they too often lack.

Calgary Flames – TUE @ MIN, THU @ NSH, SAT@ PHI, SUN @ CHI (BTB)

The Flames will be on the road next week, but they do have a packed schedule with games in Minnesota on Tuesday, Nashville on Thursday, Philadelphia on Saturday and Chicago on Sunday. None of those adversaries have been especially good this year, though the Wild are one to watch out for after winning 11 of their last 14, bringing them up to 16-13-4.

As a team, Calgary can’t claim to be nearly as hot as Minnesota, but the Flames have seen some superb individual performances recently. Yegor Sharangovich is chief among them, supplying six goals and 11 points over his last 10 contests. He got off to such a slow start this year with two goals and five points through 16 games, but that’s in no small part because he was averaging just 13:42 of ice time, including 0:39 on the power play. By contrast, he’s averaged 20:00 over his last 10 appearances, including 3:23 with the man advantage. If he maintains his present role, which seems probable, then it’s reasonable to pencil the 25-year-old in for 30-40 points over Calgary’s final 47 contests.

Blake Coleman is another player taking advantage of an increased role, though to a lesser degree. He had two goals and three points through 11 games while averaging 15:02 of ice time -- almost none of that on the power play. He’s ballooned to 17:23 per game over his last 10 outings and has rewarded Calgary by contributing six goals and 11 points over that stretch. What’s most encouraging is the Flames have experimented with using him on the power play recently -- he's averaged 2:31 with the man advantage over the past six games -- and while that’s only resulted in one point (a goal) thus far, that position does increase his upside.

Unfortunately for the Flames, things are getting progressively worse for their most expensive player. Jonathan Huberdeau was a massive disappointment last year when he dropped from 115 points to 55, and he’s on pace to do even worse in 2023-24 with just four goals and 15 points through 34 contests. Huberdeau is marred in a 12-game scoring drought. If there’s any silver lining, it’s that he’s still serving in a top-six role, so the 30-year-old is at least being put in a position to rebound. Whether he’ll take advantage of it remains to be seen, but it’s getting increasingly difficult to remain optimistic.

Chicago Blackhawks – TUE @ NSH, THU @ NYR, FRI @ NJD (BTB), SUN VS CGY

The Blackhawks will start the week with road games against the Predators on Tuesday, the Rangers on Thursday and the Devils on Friday before hosting the Flames on Sunday. It’s not an easy schedule but having a full four-game schedule is handy, so it’s worth highlighting the Blackhawks.

In particular, it’s worth keeping Petr Mrazek in mind if you’re looking for starts. With an 8-11-0 record, 3.09 GAA and .907 save percentage in 21 contests, he hasn’t exactly wowed this year, but Mrazek has been quietly effective lately, posting a 2.21 GAA and a .933 save percentage over his last eight appearances. With Arvid Soderblom struggling (0-5-1, 4.71 GAA and .848 save percentage over his past six outings), Mrazek is likely to start in three of the four games next week.

Philipp Kurashev will also be looking to stay hot after supplying a goal and six points over his last seven appearances, including three helpers over his past two games. It helps that he’s playing alongside Connor Bedard, who has factored into 10 of Kurashev’s last 11 points.

Speaking of Bedard, he’s on a five-game scoring streak in which he’s collected three goals and eight points. That gives the 18-year-old rookie 13 goals and 30 points through 33 outings.

New York Rangers – TUE VS CAR, THU VS CHI, SAT @ MTL

The Rangers have just three contests next week, but they’re winnable games. They’ll start by hosting Carolina on Tuesday and Chicago on Thursday before playing in Montreal on Saturday. The Hurricanes are in a playoff spot, but the Rangers’ other adversaries aren’t.

It’ll give Mika Zibanejad to extend his amazing run. He’s recorded at least a point in eight straight games and 16 of his last 17 outings. He had a slump from Nov. 2-20 in which he was limited to an assist over seven outings, but from Nov. 22 onward, Zibanejad ranks fourth in the league with 25 points (11 goals) over 17 appearances.

Of course, the Rangers expected Zibanejad to respond going into the campaign, but what they were going to get out of the 37-year-old Blake Wheeler was less certain. After inking a one-year, $1.1 million deal over the summer following his buyout, Wheeler was initially a nonfactor, collecting just two goals and six points through 26 contests this season. Something’s clicked recently, though, allowing him to supply three goals and eight points over his last seven outings.

New York’s schedule is spread out enough that Igor Shesterkin might start in all three games, but Jonathan Quick has been seeing action around once every three contests, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Rangers use him during this stretch. Keep an eye out for that because Quick’s been a fantastic backup this year with a 9-1-1 record, 2.27 GAA and .920 save percentage in 12 outings.

Philadelphia Flyers – TUE @ EDM, THU VS CBJ, SAT VS CGY

The Flyers will start the week with a challenging matchup in Edmonton on Tuesday, but then they have a pair of home games against the 11-18-7 Blue Jackets on Thursday and the 14-16-5 Flames on Saturday.

Those latter two contests should help Joel Farabee in his quest to surpass his career high of 39 points, which he set last year. The 23-year-old has made huge strides in 2023-24 with 12 goals and 24 points in 34 outings. He’s been particularly effective lately, providing a goal and four points over his past two outings.

Farabee’s linemate, Bobby Brink, is on a bit of a roll too, recording a point in each of his last three contests. The 22-year-old rookie is up to six goals and 17 points in 29 appearances. It’s not enough to put him in the conversation for the Calder Trophy, but it’s a solid start to what could be a good career. His playing time is somewhat modest at 14:50 per contest, which limits his production, but Brink is at least worth considering as a short-term pickup while he’s hot.

Owen Tippett isn’t getting a ton of playing time either -- just 15:15 per game -- but he has made the most of what he’s been given with 12 goals and 21 points through 33 outings. The 24-year-old has been especially productive recently, supplying at least a point in four straight outings and six of his last eight appearances.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE @ LAK, WED @ ANA (BTB), SAT @ SJS

The Maple Leafs will play in Los Angeles on Tuesday and Anaheim on Wednesday before hosting the Sharks on Saturday. While the Kings are a top-tier team, the Ducks and the Sharks sit in the NHL’s basement and rank 22nd and 32nd, respectively, in terms of goals allowed per game.

It’ll be an opportunity for Auston Matthews to pad his numbers. The superstar forward has 28 goals in 30 contests, including a stunning 14 tallies over his last 10 appearances. William Nylander can’t match Matthews in terms of goals, but he’s still having an amazing campaign in his own right with 16 markers and 45 points through 31 contests. Nylander is riding a 12-game scoring streak during which he’s provided four goals and 19 points -- and that’s on top of his season-opening 17-game point streak.

The rest of the Maple Leafs haven’t been nearly as impressive recently, though of course Mitchell Marner and John Tavares are still star forwards. Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi and Matthew Knies have their moments too. That trio of supporting forwards hasn’t been nearly as consistent as Toronto might like, but against competition like Anaheim and San Jose, any one of them is capable of excelling.

Vancouver Canucks – TUE VS OTT, THU @ STL, SAT @ NJD

Vancouver leads the league with 3.78 goals per game and its offense is likely to keep rolling given the state of its upcoming competition. The Canucks will host the Senators (28th defensively with 3.50 goals allowed per game) on Tuesday, play in St. Louis (19th, 3.26) on Thursday and conclude the week with a contest in New Jersey (29th, 3.55) on Saturday.

It might be a good time to pick up Teddy Blueger if he’s still available. That’s a sentence that hasn’t been written much over the course of the 29-year-old’s career -- after all, his career high in points stands at just 28 -- but he’s riding a seven-game point streak in which he’s supplied three goals and nine points.

Dakota Joshua is another middle-six forward who has caught fire with five goals and eight points over his last seven outings. Don’t expect him to keep this up -- the 27-year-old had just 23 points in 79 appearances last season -- but he’s a nice short-term option while he’s hot and Vancouver’s opponents feature leaky goaltending.

Of course, there are also the usual suspects too. Defenseman Quinn Hughes is having an amazing campaign with 10 goals and 45 points in 36 contests and is likely to take full advantage of the Canucks’ favorable upcoming schedule.

Washington Capitals – TUE @ PIT, WED VS NJD (BTB), FRI VS CAR, SUN VS LAK

The Capitals will start the week by visiting their main rival in Pittsburgh on Tuesday. From there, Washington will host the Devils on Wednesday, the Hurricanes on Friday, and the Kings on Sunday.

Washington has struggled offensively this year, averaging only 2.34 goals per game, and the Capitals have scored three or fewer goals in each of their last seven contests, so things don’t seem to be getting any better. Aliaksei Protas is one of the few forwards doing well recently. He’s on a four-game scoring streak and has six helpers over his last seven outings.

Anthony Mantha is also surging with four goals over his last three outings. That’s pushed him up to 10 markers through 32 contests, making him the third Capitals player to reach double digits in goals this year.

Charlie Lindgren and Darcy Kuemper might evenly split next week’s four-game set. Kuemper has been a mixed bag this campaign, but Lindgren has excelled with a 2.29 GAA and a .928 save percentage in 14 contests. He’s allowed just three goals on 56 shots (.946 save percentage) over his last two starts.

Winnipeg Jets – TUE VS TBL, THU @ SJS, FRI @ ANA, SUN @ ARI

The Jets have a full schedule of four games next week, though all those contests will be on the road. They’ll face the Lightning on Tuesday, the Sharks on Thursday, the Ducks on Friday and the Coyotes on Sunday. That set between San Jose and Anaheim in particular should be good for the Jets.

Winnipeg is still without Kyle Connor, who hasn’t played since Dec. 10 because of a knee injury. What partially compensates for that is that the Jets got Gabriel Vilardi back from a knee injury Nov. 30. It took him a few games to shake off the rust, but he has seven goals and 13 points over his last eight contests.

Nikolaj Ehlers has also stepped up during Connor’s absence. He averaged 15:47 of ice time before Connor’s injury and in the seven games Winnipeg has been without the star forward, Ehlers has supplied four goals and 10 points while logging 18:21 per contest.

Laurent Brossoit will probably start against either Anaheim or San Jose during that back-to-back set, so the Jets’ backup goaltender is slated to have a favorable matchup. Brossoit’s done well this year with a 2.49 GAA and a .911 save percentage in eight contests.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: DALLAS STARS VS VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Recent Stanley Cup finalists looking to complete unfinished business

Scott Cullen — Thu, 18 May 2023 13:47:17 +0000

The Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars have advanced through the second round and will meet in the Western Conference Final for a chance to play the winner of the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final.

Both the Stars and Golden Knights have reached the Stanley Cup Final recently. The Golden Knights are in their sixth season, so their entire history is recent, and they reached the Final in 2018, losing to the Washington Capitals. The Stars were defeated by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2020 Final.

DALLAS, TX - APRIL 08: Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Alec Martinez (23), Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston (53) and right wing Evgenii Dadonov (63) stand in front of Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Jonathan Quick (32) during the game between the Dallas Stars and the Vegas Golden Knights on April 8, 2023 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Forwards

Vegas’s strength has been depth, and that has allowed them to overcome injuries throughout the season but also to receive contributions up and down the lineup. With a relatively healthy lineup in the postseason, Jack Eichel and Mark Stone are leading the way offensively, with 14 and 12 points, respectively.

However, seven more Golden Knights forwards have accrued at least five points through 11 playoff games. Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault flank Eichel on the top line, and that trio has controlled better than 57% of expected goals during five-on-five play in the postseason. Marchessault started slowly in the playoffs, but produced eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 23 shots on goal in the last four games against Edmonton.

Mark Stone and speedy center Chandler Stephenson are a strong foundation on the second line, with Brett Howden moving up the depth chart to join them. Stephenson is tied for the team lead with six goals. Howden’s production dipped against Edmonton, but he does bring a physical presence in a supporting role.

Reilly Smith, William Karlsson, and Nicolas Roy give the Golden Knights a high quality third line. Smith and Karlsson both have produced eight points in 11 playoff games.

The fourth line of William Carrier, Teddy Blueger, and Keegan Kolesar does not score a lot, but will take a pound of flesh as Carrier and Kolesar lead the Golden Knights in hits/60 in the playoffs. Michael Amadio has appeared in nine playoff games, but Blueger joined the lineup for the last two games against Edmonton. Phil Kessel has not dressed for Vegas since Game 5 of the first round.

Roope Hintz has elevated his game in the postseason, leading the Stars with nine goals and 19 points in 13 playoff games. His shot rate has increased, and the Stars have controlled 68.5% of expected goals with Hintz on the ice during five-on-play in the playoffs. Jason Robertson has managed just two goals and while he has 10 assists and has been driving play, the Stars have room to get better if Robertson’s production gets back on track. Joe Pavelski suffered a concussion in Game 1 of the first round against Minnesota but scored eight goals in seven games against Seattle. That trio is in a strong contender for Like the Golden Knights, the Stars have a quality top nine and have been able to count on

Like the Golden Knights, the Stars have a quality top nine and have been able to count on any of their top three lines to chip in offensively. Veterans Max Domi, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Evgenii Dadonov all have at least nine points. Mason Marchment and rookie Wyatt Johnston both contributed four goals and six points.

Radek Faksa, Luke Glendening, Joel Kiviranta, and Ty Dellandrea, in some combination, fill fourth line roles for the most part and they have had a mixed bag of results. For example, the Stars have controlled 55.3% of expected goals but have been outscored 9-3 with Dellandrea on the ice for five-on-five play in the playoffs.

Both teams have quality depth, but Vegas appears to have a deeper reservoir of talent up front.

Defense

Alex Pietrangelo has seven assists while playing more than 24 minutes per game but his most memorable play in the postseason may be his two-handed slash on Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl. Pietrangelo was suspended for Game 5 of that series as a result. He has paired with Alec Martinez and that pairing has had just 42.5 CF% and 46.7 xGF%, but they have somehow outscored the opposition 11-4 during five-on-five play.

Vegas’ second pairing of Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb, who offer a good mix of skills, from Theodore’s puck movement to McNabb’s bone-crunching hits, has been their most effective pair in the postseason. They have pulled 52.2% expected goals as a tandem in the playoffs, and they are the only two Vegas blueliners on the right side of 50% in that metric.

The Golden Knights’s third pair of Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud is relatively solid. They have been on the wrong end of Corsi (47.3%) and expected goals (47.5%) but have outscored the opposition 6-3 in the postseason.

Miro Heiskanen had a tremendous season and has contributed nine assists while playing more than 28 minutes per game in 13 playoff games. While he has played a ton, Heiskanen has had just slightly positive results so far in the playoffs, with a 52.2 CF% and 51.7 xGF% while the Stars have outscored opponents 8-6 with Heiskanen on the ice. Paired with Ryan Suter, Heiskanen has been very good, but hardly dominant, in the postseason.

The trouble for the Stars lands on the second pair, where Jani Hakanpaa and Esa Lindell have managed just 43.5% of expected goals and been outscored 11-4 during five-on-five play in the playoffs. Hakanpaa was bumped from the defensive rotation for Colin Miller in Game 7 against Seattle.

Where the Stars have had an edge in the playoffs is with the third pair of Thomas Harley and Joel Hanley on the ice. Harley has seven points, and the Stars are controlling 63.2% of expected goals with him on the ice for five-on-five play. Hanley has appeared in eight games and the Stars have 69.2% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 8-2 with him on the ice during five-on-five play.

If Miller replacing Hakanpaa can’t fix the second pair, then that is an area of weakness for the Golden Knights to exploit.

While both clubs have some top end blueliners, there are points of vulnerability on both units. Considering the depth of forward talent on both teams, the challenge for the Golden Knights and Stars will be minimizing the potential mismatches.

Goaltending

Dallas’ Jake Oettinger was so highly regarded coming out of last season’s first round loss to Calgary and he was comfortably above average during the regular season, but he was unexpectedly shaky in the second round against Seattle, posting a .877 save percentage in seven games. Given his opposition, though, Oettinger should be expected to give the Stars an edge.

Vegas has been churning through goaltenders. The latest to take on the starting job is Adin Hill, who played well after jumping in for an injured Laurent Brossoit. Hill had a .915 save percentage in 27 regular-season games and put up a .934 save percentage in five games against the Oilers. Those are solid numbers but the challenge for Hill, and all Golden Knights goaltenders this season, is staying healthy for more than two weeks at a time.

Special Teams

Vegas’ power play has been a problem area and is the weakest in the postseason for the four teams remaining. The Golden Knights have scored 4.81 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranks 13^th. Eichel and Stone have combined to score five of Vegas’ seven power play goals in the playoffs.

Dallas’ power play was excellent during the regular season, ranking second in the league with 9.40 goals per 60 during five-on-four play, and that rate has improved in the postseason, up to 12.41. Tyler Seguin leads the Stars with four power play goals in the playoffs while Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz both have eight points with the man advantage.

The efficiency of the Stars’ power play could pose a major problem for the Golden Knights because Vegas’ PK has been abysmal. They have allowed 17.04 goals against per 60 during four-on-five play, ranking 15^th out of 16 playoff teams.

By contrast, the Stars’ penalty killing unit was strong during the regular season and that has carried over into the playoffs. Dallas has allowed 4.81 goals against per 60 at four-on-five, ranking third in the playoffs.

Conclusion

This should be a competitive series because both the Stars and Golden Knights have shown great resilience to reach this point of the playoffs. However, the Stars have a significant special teams edge and should likely have the better goaltender, which is enough to nudge this towards Big D. Stars in 7.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS EDMONTON OILERS – Oilers have been a freight train since the trade deadline, but return of Stone, team defense, make Vegas a tough out

Scott Cullen — Mon, 01 May 2023 22:30:22 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - NOVEMBER 19: Vegas Golden Knights Defenceman Nicolas Hague (14) clears the puck from Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) in the first period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Las Vegas Golden Knights on November 19, 2022 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

VEGAS vs. EDMONTON

After dispatching the Los Angeles Kings in six games in Round 1, the Edmonton Oilers head into a second-round matchup against the Pacific Division winning Vegas Golden Knights. The Golden Knights might have finished higher in the standings, but the Oilers are the team that is both favored to win the series, and one of the top favorites to capture the Stanley Cup.

The Oilers have been a freight train since the trade deadline, so it appears that they have momentum on their side, but the Golden Knights made short work of the Winnipeg Jets in the first round and are not likely to be an easy out.

Forwards

One of the benefits of having two superstars is that it is so difficult to shut down both. As ridiculous as it sounds, the Kings could have felt okay limiting Connor McDavid to three goals and 10 points in six games (a 41-goal and 137-point pace in 82 games) in the first round, but then Leon Draisaitl notched seven goals and 11 points in the series. They combined for 11 power play points in the first round.

The Oilers received four points against Los Angeles from wingers Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, Zach Hyman, and Klim Kostin. Edmonton’s depth forwards may not be scoring much, but they are controlling play. Edmonton controlled more than two-thirds of expected goals against Los Angeles when Kostin, Derek Ryan, Warren Foegele, and Ryan McLeod were on the ice.

For the Oilers to make a Stanley Cup run, they will need production from more than McDavid and Draisaitl, and it appears that they have enough quality depth to handle that responsibility.

The Golden Knights don’t have elite scorers like McDavid and Draisaitl, but there is still plenty of forward talent on hand.

Jack Eichel finally arrived in the playoffs, for the first time in his career, and he contributed three goals and five points with 17 shots on goal in five games against Winnipeg, a good start. Eichel’s line is not the most dangerous for the Golden Knights, though.

Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone both had eight points in the first round, and Brett Howden chipped in four points, while the trio controlled 60.7% of expected goals while outscoring Winnipeg 5-1 during five-on-five play.

Forward depth is a strong suit for the Golden Knights. William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith are proven performers, even though Marchessault managed just two assists in Round 1. Vegas has also received quality contributions from the likes of Michael Amadio, Ivan Barbashev and hard-hitting wingers Keegan Kolesar and William Carrier. The return of Carrier to the lineup bumped Phil Kessel to the press box for Game 5 against Winnipeg.

While Vegas looks like they might have an edge in forward depth, the question is whether that is going to be enough to overcome two of the most prolific scorers in the league.

Defense

When the Oilers moved out Tyson Barrie as part of the deal to acquire Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline, Evan Bouchard was the defender set up to step into a first unit power play role. While Bouchard and Ekholm were effective at evens against Los Angeles, controlling 54.7% of shot attempts and 51.4% of expected goals during five-on-five play. Bouchard kicked it up a notch on the power play, though, scoring eight of his 10 first-round points with the man advantage.

The Oilers outscored the Kings 5-2 when the pairing of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci were on the ice during five-on-five play, but Edmonton managed just 45.2% of shot attempts and 45.8% of expected goals in those situations, so there is some defensive vulnerability.

Brett Kulak, Vincent Desharnais, and Phillip Broberg round out the defense corps and all three had solid underlying numbers against the Kings. Desharnais was outscored 5-2, but that seems like randomness since the Oilers were controlling 62.8% of expected goals with Desharnais on the ice.

The Golden Knights used eight defensemen in Round 1, with Brayden Pachal and Ben Hutton getting into the lineup as injury replacements for Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb.

Alex Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez were the top pair against Winnipeg. The Golden Knights controlled 51.6% of expected goals and outscored the Jets 8-3 with that duo on the blueline. Theodore and McNabb both missed Game 5 against the Jets, but when they were on the ice together Vegas had 56.1% of the expected goals during five-on-five play against Winnipeg.

Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud are a strong third pairing for Vegas, when the team is healthy. They can move up the depth chart when Theodore and McNabb are out.

Vegas is a strong defensive team, allowing 2.78 all-situations expected goals against per 60 minutes, the third lowest rate in the first round.

Goaltending

Edmonton’s rookie netminder Stuart Skinner started all six games against the Kings in the first round, winning three. He was pulled after the first period in Game 4, with Jack Campbell stopping 27 of 28 shots to lead the Oilers to a pivotal victory. Skinner was an above average starter during the regular season but had a .890 save percentage against Los Angeles. If the Oilers are going to go on a Stanley Cup run, they will need better than .890 goaltending.

Even though he played just 11 games for the Golden Knights in the regular season, spending most of the year in the AHL after recovering from hip surgery, Laurent Brossoit was the clear starter in goal going into the series against Winnipeg, and Brossoit posted a .915 save percentage in five starts. He may not be one to steal too many victories, but solidly average goaltending can go a long way.

This is not a series in which either team can be supremely confident in their goaltending. Anything can happen with a goalie in the small sample of a playoff series, but the range of outcomes is practically infinite when it comes to relatively unproven options like Skinner and Brossoit.

Special Teams

Edmonton had a historically strong power play during the regular season, and it was even better in the first round against Los Angeles, ranking first among playoff teams with 20.96 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. This is an area where Edmonton’s elite talent takes over.

The Golden Knights power play ranked 10^th with 7.06 goals per 60 during five-on-four play in the first round. That comes after ranking 19^th in goals per 60 during the regular season, so there is a clear difference in quality between the two teams when they have the man advantage. This is standard for the Oilers, of course.

While Edmonton’s penalty killing ranked 11^th in the first round with 11.87 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play, the Golden Knights’ penalty kill was torched for five goals in 14:45 of four-on-five play (20.34 goals against per 60 minutes) against Winnipeg, the second worst rate in the first round of the postseason. Vegas allowed 85.42 shots against per 60 during four-on-five play in Round 1, the only team to surrender more than 70 shots against per 60. That’s a small sample, but it is ugly in a small sample.

If Vegas’ penalty killing is indeed a liability, then facing an Oilers power play that has been historically great figures to be an enormous problem.

Conclusion

Momentum is riding with the Oilers and even though they finished two points behind the Golden Knights in the standings, Edmonton had a better goal differential and had the league’s best record (17-2-1) after the trade deadline. That leads to Edmonton being favored even though Vegas holds home ice advantage.

Vegas has been an excellent defensive team and has been boosted by the return of Mark Stone for the playoffs. Is that enough to help them hold off the Oilers? It’s possible, but I’m still leaning towards the superstars carrying the series for Edmonton. Oilers in 6.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: WINNIPEG JETS VS. VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Can the Jets muster the offense to win?

Jesse Marshall — Sat, 15 Apr 2023 15:12:00 +0000

The Vegas Golden Knights enter this post-season as the top seed in the Western Conference. Even typing that feels weird, as it doesn't feel like Vegas has had that kind of dominance this season, but they've broken their franchise record in points en route to this top seed. This is a well-rounded team that does everything well enough and gets extraordinary offensive contributions all throughout its lineup.

The Jets are defensive specialists with good goaltending, is that enough to get the job done? These two teams last met in the 2018 Western Conference final where Vegas took the win in five games. Let's take a look at the tale of the tape between these teams before jumping into a prediction to round things out.

Offensive Breakdown: A David vs. Goliath Tale

NEWARK, NJ - JANUARY 24: Vegas Golden Knights center Jack Eichel (9) skates with the puck during the National Hockey League game between the Vegas Golden Knights and the New Jersey Devils on January 24, 2023 at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

We're starting off with the most lopsided aspect of this matchup. These two teams generate shots and scoring chances at near-equal paces to each other, but the Jets rank 27th in the league with regard to their ability to finish and the Golden Knights are 15th. That makes a huge difference in the bucket of actual goals scored. The Golden Knights are outpacing their expectations and have the 9th most goals in the league as a result. The Jets are struggling to finish opportunities and rank 23rd in goals-for as a result.

The struggle for the Jets is a total lack of transition and rush offense. Once they can establish a cycle, they begin to get some chances and shots on net, but until that time comes it's largely a hit and miss effort full of dump-and-chase hockey. Aside from Nikolaj Ehlers, the Jets do not have many players that they can comfortably rely on to carry the puck into the offensive zone with possession.

Ehlers, as it might not surprise you, also leads the team with regards to shooting off of the rush as well. Winnipeg's best work comes off of the cycle and from getting opportunities in-tight to the net. The generate more opportunities here than they do anywhere else on the ice. They also generate messy shots like deflections and rebounds at a rate higher than most of their peers. The Jets will be looking to their top line of Mark Scheifele and his 40+ goals to help them keep pace with things on offense. Look for the Jets to try and establish long, offensive zone possessions that work the puck low-to-high and generates attempts that challenge the goalie in high-danger areas.

It's a more dynamic story on the offensive side of the puck for the Golden Knights. I don't look at their results and point to one area to say that it's definitively responsible for their success. Their zone entry numbers from the All Three Zones project show that they have no issue carrying the puck and they do it frequently with contributions coming from all over their lineup, but especially from Jack Eichel.

Speaking of Eichel, he's found great success with Mark Stone this season and should the two of them find time together at even-strength, that is going to certainly challenge the Jets. Vegas passes the puck a lot once they enter the offensive zone. As a result of their wholesale approach to puck movement, they find a lot of space on the edges of the circles and in the slot. Keep an eye on William Carrier, he's set a career-high for game-winning goals and has registered a point on 78-percent of all the goals scored while he's on the ice at even-strength.

Defensive Comparison

LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 27: Winnipeg Jets Defenceman Josh Morrissey (44) carries the puck at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire)

This is an area where the Jets can definitely hang with the Golden Knights. They allowed fewer goals against than the Knights this year and allow significantly fewer shots. The Jets protect their defensive blue line well and on controlled breakouts, it's not uncommon to find them with three bodies stacked at the blue line. However, that hasn't prevented them from stopping zone entries. I talked earlier about how good Vegas was at carrying the puck into the offensive zone with possession and the Jets haven't been great at defending that.

The Jets will look to Josh Morrissey, a legitimate Norris candidate for this season, to run the show for them on the backend. Morrissey's skating allows him to make significant contributions both offensively and defensively and the Jets will need him in both areas. Defensively speaking, Brenden Dillon has done a great job for the Jets this year. He's kept a strong, aggressive gap and has posted positive results in shot and scoring chance mitigation relative to his teammates as a result.

For the Golden Knights, their kryptonite has seemingly been their inability to protect the opposition from piling up on shot-attempts. The good news is that while Vegas allows a lot of shot-attempts, they keep most of them to the outside. They do have an issue with getting lost in transition on long cycle opportunities and center drives, but it's more of an annoyance versus something that could potentially sink them in the post-season.

The Golden Knights third pairing of Nicolas Hague and Ben Hutton have been posting quietly good results in the realm of shot and scoring-chance suppression. They can be deployed in a very confident fashion as a third-pairing. Meanwhile Alec Martinez and Alex Pieterangelo have controlled 55-percent of the quality scoring chances while they've been on the ice at even-strength.

Special Teams Battle

Neither of these teams have a power-play that particularly strikes fear into the heart of the opponent. The Golden Knights convert at just over 20-percent and the Jets come in at 19.3-percent. The one element that I think goes in the Golden Knights favor is that they take shots from all over the ice surface whereas the Jets are more limited to the right side of the ice. In fact, most of their attempts at offense come from this area courtesy of Connor being posted up there. Add in Nino Niederreiter and you've got a lot of firepower on that right-hand side of the ice.

For the Knights, they've struggled to find someone who can lift their power-play to the next level. Jonathan Marchessault leads the way with 9 power-play goals and 16 power-play points on the year.

On the penalty-killing side it's the Jets that have had more success so far this season. They boast the 7th-best penalty-kill in the league with an 82.4-percent success rate. Winnipeg's success in this are comes from the direct support they provide to their goaltending in these circumstances. Their penalty-kill is aggressive but tight to the front of their net. They will make opponents work for good opportunities from the exterior of the ice.

The Golden Knights have all the trappings to keep up with the Jets from a scoring chance prevention perspective, but they allow entirely too many shots and haven't gotten the good goaltending the Jets have on the penalty-kill. I mentioned the struggles the Jets have with generating shots outside of the right half of the ice surface on the power-play, and that's an area the Golden Knights have showed no trouble with on the penalty-kill.

Goaltending Comparison

The Jets path to stealing this series will come from the crease in the form of Connor Hellebuyck. It was another solid performance from him this season with a .920 save percentage. He had an expected goals-against total of 189 and an actualized goals-against total of 157.

I mentioned earlier the discrepancy in offensive talent here. If the Jets are going to keep these games close, they need huge performances in the crease to keep the scores low. Getting into an offensive shootout is not their game and goaltending is more important than ever for them as a result.

The big question here is who is going to be the game one started for the Golden Knights? The have, in some form or fashion, deployed a total of five goalies at regular points throughout this regular season. Laurent Brossoit has been playing well for them recently, could he get the call? Jonathan Quick has seem time for them as well, but he's posting a .901 save percentage and has allowed four more goals than a league average goaltender would in his situation.

This is a big advantage for the Jets as we know who their rock is in goal but the Golden Knights still have a question who will be starting in game one for them.

Prediction

Despite the questions about goaltending, I think a Golden Knights team that has just seen Mark Stone and Shea Theodore return to the lineup is too much to handle. The Jets have a top line that features some lethal goal-scorers and a group that can control the game, but I don't think that and the goaltending advantage is going to be enough to stave off a Golden Knights team that has a lot of different ways they can score goals. I'm taking the Golden Knights in six games.

Data for this piece was obtained by:

Corey Sznajder - All Three Zones

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – O’Reilly in Toronto, Orlov in Boston – Beauvillier, Domi, Novak, Girard plus more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 24 Feb 2023 16:53:17 +0000

TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 18: Toronto Maple Leafs center Ryan O'Reilly (90) readies himself prior to the face-off in the first period during the NHL regular season game between the Montreal Canadiens and the Toronto Maple Leafs on February 18, 2023 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Gavin Napier/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the trade business is starting to pick up, so look to Ryan O’Reilly in Toronto and Dmitry Orlov heading to Boston, plus Anthony Beauvillier, Max Domi, Thomas Novak, Samuel Girard and more that could be worth adding to your fantasy squad.

#1 The Toronto Maple Leafs made a big splash ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline, acquiring center Ryan O’Reilly from the St. Louis Blues. O’Reilly was having a rough year in St. Louis, with 19 points (12 G, 7 A) in 40 games, but has a whole new opportunity in Toronto. He is centering the second line, between John Tavares and Mitch Marner. In his first three games with the Leafs, O’Reilly has five points, including a hat trick at Buffalo on Tuesday.

#2 Coming with O’Reilly in the trade to Toronto is Noel Acciari, a versatile forward who does offer some banger league fantasy value. Acciari has 19 points (11 G, 8 A) in 57 games, so he is not a big scorer, but he has 181 hits, including 13 in three games for Toronto. Acciari’s 11 goals and 19 points is the most of any forward with more than 170 hits.

#3 Having traded already traded Vladimir Tarasenko and Niko Mikkola before dealing O’Reilly and Acciari, the Blues are left with a thin lineup. That could provide an opportunity to find value from players that might not be top of mind when it comes to fantasy value. Brandon Saad returned from injury to skate on the top line with Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. Ivan Barbashev still has a role in the Blues’ top six, at least until he is moved out before the deadline. That could open the door for Josh Leivo or Sammy Blais to see a more significant role down the stretch.

#4 The Boston Bruins did not stand pat with their league-leading record, making a trade with the Washington Capitals on Thursday for defenseman Dmitry Orlov and right winger Garnet Hathaway. Orlov has decent fantasy value in deeper leagues, even though he has never scored more than 35 points in a season. He is playing more than 22 minutes per game this season, the second highest average of his career, and his 88 hits in 43 games is a higher rate than he has recorded in any of his previous 10 NHL seasons.

#5 Garnet Hathaway’s contributions are not that different from Acciari. Hathaway had 16 points (9 G, 7 A) and 198 hits in 59 games for Washington. That style of play should endear him to the Bruins faithful and, playing for a strong Bruins team, might give Hathaway some banger league appeal. With Orlov departing, it looks like Trevor van Riemsdyk will see a bigger role with the Capitals, which includes time on the second power play unit. In his past eight games, van Riemsdyk has contributed four points (2 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal, so it would be too soon to recommend him in most leagues, but it is worth keeping an eye on his role.

#6 A new role with a new team can make all the difference. Just look at Anthony Beauvillier and what he has done with Vancouver since getting acquired in the Bo Horvat trade. Beauvillier has eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 23 shots on goal while playing more than 19 minutes per game in his first nine games for the Canucks. Skating on the top line with Elias Pettersson and playing first unit power play is a better situation than what Beauvillier was typically afforded during his time with the New York Islanders.

#7 While the trade deadline spotlight in Chicago is focused on Patrick Kane, do not overlook Max Domi, who is on a tear of his own and could be moved. Domi has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 13 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. He has 46 points (17 G, 29 A) in 57 games, the third highest point total of his career, while playing a career high 18:14 per game.

#8 One of my favorite value players, Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner is still available in many leagues and in his past 13 games, Jenner has 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 54 shots on goal. Add in 32 hits and a ton of faceoffs and Jenner can contribute to a lot of fantasy categories. Getting to center Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine on the Blue Jackets’ top line has its benefits.

#9 While the popular opinion is that the Colorado Avalanche will acquire a second line center before the trade deadline, they have been getting quality production in that spot from J.T. Compher. In his past 14 games, Compher has produced 14 points (3 G, 11 A) while averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game. The Avs are running Mikko Rantanen on Compher’s right wing and that is a prime opportunity for Compher, who has already hit a career high with 38 points (11 G, 27 A) in 55 games.

#10 Known more for his defensive acumen, Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli becomes a more dangerous player when he is contributing offensively, too, and that is how it has been going lately. In his past seven games, Cirelli has eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 16 shots on goal.

#11 With Ryan Johansen suffering a season-ending injury, the Nashville Predators are getting thin down the middle of the ice. That does put second year pivot Thomas Novak into the spotlight, though. Novak has eight points (4 G, 4 A) during a four-game point streak and played a career-high 18:39 in Thursday’s win at San Jose.

#12 There have been ups and downs for second year Carolina Hurricanes right winger Seth Jarvis, but he appears to be hitting his groove. He has six points (4 G, 2 A) in the past three games and has recorded at least three shots on goal in six straight games. He has returned to skating on Carolina’s top line, with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov, so Jarvis could be poised for a strong finish, though his long-term place on the top line could depend on what the Hurricanes do before the trade deadline.

#13 Although the San Jose Sharks are not headed to the postseason, veteran center Logan Couture is having another productive campaign. In his past nine games, Couture has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 22 shots on goal. He has 48 points (20 G, 28 A) in 59 games, giving him more than 0.80 points per game. The last time he finished a season with that per-game scoring rate was 2018-2019. It is fair to have some skepticism about Couture’s production, however, as his wingers are Michael Eyssimont and Alexander Barabanov, not exactly established premier scoring wingers, and there is a good chance that San Jose’s lineup will get depleted by trades before the deadline.

#14 With Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar again out of the lineup, it is worth paying more attention to puck moving Avs blueliner Samuel Girard. In his past 10 games, the 24-year-old defenseman has 11 points (1 G, 10 A) and 22 shots on goal while playing more than 23 minutes per game. He does most of his damage at even strength, too, with five of his 23 points this season coming on the power play.

#15 His track record leaves me wary, but Columbus Blue Jackets netminder Joonas Korpisalo has undeniably had a strong season and, with a contract that expires at season’s end, he could be a possible trade deadline addition for a team looking to stabilize its goaltending. Korpisalo has a .913 save percentage in 27 games, which ranks 16^th among goaltenders that have appeared in at least 20 games. The lure for any contending teams is that Korpisalo was outstanding in his only postseason experience, posting a .941 save percentage in nine games during the 2019-2020 “bubble” Playoffs.

#16 Leading the Pacific Division, the Vegas Golden Knights have lost goaltenders Logan Thompson and Adin Hill to injuries, prompting the club to recall Laurent Brossoit from the American Hockey League. Brossoit has stopped 62 of 67 shots in two starts since getting pressed into action and he will have value as long as he is going to play. Over his career, he has been an adequate backup, albeit one that does not play very frequently. Can he handle a starter’s role, even in the short term for Vegas? It could be worth a waiver add to find out.

#17 The New York Islanders are in a dire situation now as they battle for a playoff spot. Centers Mathew Barzal and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are among the five forwards out of the lineup. That means Matt Martin is skating on the top line and Kyle Palmieri is on the first power play unit. In his past six games, Martin has five points (2 G, 3 A), 11 shots on goal and 21 hits. In deep leagues, that’s worth a look, even if it is on a short-term basis. After returning from an injury last month, Palmieri has put up nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 32 shots and 21 hits in 13 games. Given his track record, and the fact that he gets more ice time, Palmieri is an even better addition for fantasy managers.

#18 Philadelphia Flyers leading scorer Travis Konecny is dealing with an upper-body injury and that means looking to young wingers who might get more of an opportunity. Owen Tippett has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 36 shots on goal in the past 12 games. He played more than 20 minutes in Florida’s loss at Edmonton on Tuesday, the first time since November that he played more than 20 minutes in a game.

#19 In 2023, the leaders in terms of individual expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 100 minutes): John Tavares, Brady Tkachuk, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matthew Tkachuk, Kevin Fiala, Zach Hyman, Boone Jenner, Connor McDavid, Michael Eyssimont, and Timo Meier. There are a lot of expected names there, but Jenner and Eyssimont stand out for the company they are keeping in this regard. At the other end of the spectrum, there are some surprises, too. Naturally, fourth-line forwards tend to be the ones generating the fewest expected goals, but there are others. Among the 401 forwards that have played at least 100 minutes since January 1, Mitch Marner ranks 378^th. Some other notables: Joel Farabee (373), Andrew Copp (359), and Sam Steel (353).

#20 The most dominant line in hockey probably comes as a surprise. According to Evolving Hockey, there are 59 lines that have played at least 200 minutes together during five-on-five play. The same line ranks first in Corsi For percentage, Expected Goals Percentage, and Goals For Percentage. That line is the Calgary Flames trio of Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, and Blake Coleman. In the past 18 games, Mangiapane has 15 points (6 G, 9 A) and 51 shots on goal, Backlund has 20 points (6 G, 14 A) and 63 shots on goal, and Coleman has 13 points (5 G, 8 A) and 50 shots on goal.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – NHL Player Profiles

Ryan Dadoun – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 22:15:05 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - APRIL 03: Vegas Golden Knights center Jack Eichel (9) skates up ice during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on April 3, 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Jack Eichel

After years of disappointment in Buffalo, it ultimately wasn’t the Sabres’ continued inability to make the playoffs that pushed Eichel out, it was a medical disagreement. Eichel couldn’t play because of a neck injury, but his medical team and Buffalo couldn’t agree on how to handle the situation. He wanted to undergo artificial disc replacement and the Sabres refused to sign off on that treatment, which hadn’t been performed on an NHL player to that point. That situation dragged on until November when he was finally traded to Vegas, and then on February 16th he made his Golden Knights debut after having undergone and recovered from the artificial disc replacement surgery. Eichel wasn’t quite as good as he normally is for what was left of the season, but he more than held his own with 14 goals and 25 points in 34 games. After the season it was revealed that Eichel had been playing with a broken thumb since March 17th. Between the fact he had to jump into the lineup with a new team more than halfway through the year and the revelation that he was playing hurt for the last chunk of the campaign, it’s hard to read too much into his performance in 2021-22. What we can say is that when Eichel is healthy, he’s good enough to slot in as the top center on most teams in the league. Taken second after Connor McDavid in the 2015 draft, Eichel hasn’t reached McDavid’s heights and likely won’t, but Eichel’s the complete offensive package and can drive Vegas’ offense while averaging over a point-per-game.

Mark Stone

Stone is one of the league’s best two-way forwards, but last season his impact was severely hampered by injuries. He had multiple stints on the sidelines and after the season, he underwent back surgery. The good news is that he’s expected to be ready for training camp, but it’s hard to read too much into his season given his injury woes. Stone was particularly ineffective when he attempted to return on April 12th in a failed bid to push Vegas into the playoffs. Stone admitted after his first game back that he didn’t feel very good, and he ultimately was limited to just a goal and an assist over his final nine games. That dragged him below a point-per-game, finishing the season with nine goals and 30 points in 37 contests. That’s still pretty good all things considered, and he should be entering this season hungry. He felt he “skunked” in the 2021 semifinals against Montreal and his injury situation prevented him from being able to truly redeem himself last season. Vegas ultimately missed the playoffs for the first time in their short franchise’s history, in no small part due to injuries, and as the team captain, Stone will be looked upon to lead this team back into contention. If he can stay healthy, that’s a task he’s up for. He’s capable of providing around 30 goals and 70-80 points while simultaneously contending for the Selke Trophy.

William Karlsson

When evaluating William Karlsson, it would be best to forget his 2017-18 campaign. He had 43 goals and 78 points in 82 games that season but reached those heights by posting a 23.4 shooting percentage, scoring 43 goals versus 26.3 expected goals. In other words, he vastly overperformed that season and it’s not surprising that he hasn’t been able to measure up to those heights since. Instead, it’s best to look at Karlsson as a solid second line forward who is responsible defensively and can be used on both the power play and penalty kill. He doesn’t have much of a physical element to his game, but the positive there is that he also doesn’t take many penalties. He’s also become a modest asset on the draw in recent years, going from a 47% success rate on the draw from 2016-17 through 2018-19 to 52.5% over the last three seasons. He had 12 goals and 35 points in 67 contests in 2021-22, which was on the low side for him from a points-per-game perspective. He also had an 8.9% shot percentage, which was his lowest since he joined the Golden Knights. He had a 55.6 IPP and 970 PDO, which suggests that he might have been a bit unlucky last season. It wouldn’t be out of line to expect him to push for the 20-goal and 50-point milestones if he plays the full 82 games.

Jonathan Marchessault

Vegas was devastated by injuries last season, which made Marchessault somewhat unique among the forward core for his ability to stay fairly healthy. In fact, among Golden Knights forwards, he was one of just four players to log at least 70 games. Not only did he stay healthy though, but he also excelled, scoring a team-leading 30 goals and 66 points in 76 games. That made this his best season since 2017-18, but it wasn’t too far a deviation from the norm. This is the fifth straight season that he’s averaged at least .71 points-per-game, which translates to roughly 58 points over 82 contests. That consistency is a testament to his hard work and determination in face of significant odds. At 5-foot-9, he’s an undersized forward who went undrafted. He had to work his way up from the AHL and didn’t establish himself as a top-six forward until the 2016-17 campaign, during which he celebrated his 26th birthday. Despite taking the long road to the NHL, he’s managed to stay at the top for a while now. He’s certainly not without his weaknesses, he’s not much of a physical presence and he’s nothing to write home about defensively. At the same time, his work with the puck more than makes up for that. Vegas is a significantly better team when he’s on the ice, as evidenced by his plus-5.4 relative Corsi For and his plus-6.4 relative Fenwick For in 5v5 situations. He was well worth his $5 million cap hit last season and should continue to provide Vegas with great value in 2022-23.

Reilly Smith

Smith isn’t a headline forward, but there’s a reason why Vegas felt it was important to ink him to a three-year, $15 million contract over the summer despite their cap woes. To put it simply, he does most things well. He doesn’t take a ton of shots, but he’s effective when he does fire the puck and he’s perfectly capable of creating chances for his teammates. Smith did struggle by his standards in 2020-21, finishing with 14 goals and 25 points in 53 games, but he bounced back last season while playing primarily on Vegas’ second line last season alongside William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault. Although he missed a significant chunk of the season with a knee injury, he contributed 16 goals and 38 points in 56 games. From a points-per-game perspective, that’s the fourth time in five years that Smith has exceeded 0.65 PPG, which would translate to roughly 53 points over 82 games. He’s also solid defensively and led the team in shorthanded minutes per game with 1:46. Smith is an original member of the Golden Knights, having been acquired from Florida for the low price of a fourth-round pick back in June 2017. While there’s been a lot of turnover in Vegas since their unexpected run to the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season, the Golden Knights clearly continue to value his strong two-way play and given that he’s not too old at the age of 31, he seems like a safe bet to continue to serve as a great second line option through the life of his new contract.

Chandler Stephenson

In a season where Vegas as a franchise endured its first major disappointment by missing the playoffs, Stephenson’s performance was something of a silver lining. He took a step forward in 2020-21 with 14 goals and 35 points in 79 games but blew that out of the water last season by scoring 21 goals and 64 points in 79 contests. Part of his rise has been thanks to his increased role. When the Golden Knights acquired him from the Capitals in 2019-20, his playing time jumped from an average of 11:50 minutes in Washington to 15:47 minutes over the rest of the campaign. His responsibilities have continued to increase in Vegas to the point where he was averaging 19:19 minutes last season. In Stephenson, Vegas has a speedy forward who can slot in comfortably with pretty much any linemates. Vegas also sends him out with confidence on both the power play and penalty kill. His 5-on-5 play is nothing to sneeze at either. He led the team in even-strength points with 48 and had a solid 5v5 Corsi For and Fenwick For at 51.3 and 52.5 respectively. It will be interesting to see how Vegas opts to utilize him this season. A full season of Jack Eichel when combined with the return of William Karlsson and Nicolas Roy gives the Golden Knights no shortage of capable centers to compete with Stephenson. At the time, Vegas lost Max Pacioretty and Evgenii Dadonov to cap saving trades, so their thinner on the wings. That could lead to Vegas shifting a natural center and to that end, it is worth noting that Stephenson received some 5v5 ice time with Eichel last season. That duo might find themselves together a lot more in 2022-23.

Keegan Kolesar

Kolesar’s offensive game has been slow to develop, and it remains to be seen if he’ll ever be a significant threat with the puck, but he has made a name for himself among the Golden Knights thanks to his physical play. He set a career-high with 246 hits in 77 games, which was good for 10th in the NHL and made him Vegas’ leader by a margin of 87 hits. With Ryan Reaves no longer a part of the team, Kolesar has latched onto the role as the team’s main enforcer. To that end, he also wasn’t shy about dropping the gloves last season, logging eight fights. He set career-highs offensively too, but those were far less impressive. He finished with seven goals and 24 points in 77 contests. Part of the problem was that he was averaging just 12:39 minutes and he also lacked consistent linemates. Let’s not pretend that his only issue was a lack of opportunities though. In terms of 5v5 points/60, he was the third worst forward on the team at 1.43 (min. 20 games played). His offensive upside isn’t high, so don’t expect a breakout here and with the number of skilled forwards the Golden Knights already have, they’re likely to continue to utilize him primarily in a bottom-six role. Fortunately, that’s a role he’s well suited for. He might not be a star forward, but he will help Vegas round out its team.

Nicolas Roy

With the 2021-22 Vegas Golden Knights devastated by injuries throughout the season, some players had to play bigger roles and one major example of that was Roy. He averaged 16:15 minutes last season, shattering his 2020-21 career-high of 13:01. It wasn’t a flawless transition for him. Although he did provide a bit of a physical edge with 85 hits, he wasn’t great defensively. That said, he made solid contributions with the puck, scoring 15 goals and 39 points in 78 contests. He also had a plus-2.1 5v5 relative Corsi For and plus-0.3 5v5 relative Fenwick For, so he at very least wasn’t a liability compared to his teammates from a puck possession perspective. It’s also worth noting that Roy averaged a somewhat modest 1:45 power-play minutes and a lot of that came as part of Vegas’ second unit. For that reason, Roy’s offensive gains came despite limited production on the power play. Of his 39 points, 33 of them came at even strength. In fact, in terms of 5v5 points/60, Roy held his own at 1.70, which put him in ninth place among Vegas forwards (min. 20 games played), just behind Jack Eichel (1.74) and not too far off from Evgenii Dadonov (1.84) or Jonathan Marchessault (1.91). Looking ahead to the 2021-22 campaign, Roy should be penciled in as the team’s third-line center, but with Dadonov and Max Pacioretty gone, there’s some potential for him to shift to the wing to serve in a second line role. It wouldn’t be surprising if his role changes on a semi-regular basis over the course of the season, resulting in him getting somewhat similar minutes to what he enjoyed last season.

Nolan Patrick

It’s hard not to feel sympathy for Patrick, even though that’s probably the last emotion he was hoping to elicit from people five years after being taken with the second overall pick by the Philadelphia Flyers. Patrick’s first two seasons in the NHL weren’t great, but they were okay. He recorded 30 and 31 points while seeing his role slowly increase. Then injuries completely derailed his career. He couldn’t play at all in 2019-20 because of a migraine disorder. That not only robbed him of a valuable chance to grow his role, but also critical development time. He was able to return for the 2020-21 campaign, but it was difficult for him to pick up where he left off. He contributed just four goals and nine points in 52 contests while averaging a modest 13:17 minutes. The Flyers gave him an opportunity to get a fresh start when they dealt him to the Vegas Golden Knights during the summer of 2021, but injuries once again spoiled his opportunity. He only got into four games before being sidelined for roughly two months due to an upper-body injury and that wouldn’t be his last stint on the sidelines. He ultimately finished with two goals and seven points in 25 games while averaging a career-low 11:30 minutes. Patrick has size, offensive potential, and can play with a physical edge. After all the setbacks he’s endured though, it’s tough to maintain optimism about his prospects. The one silver lining here is that the Golden Knights’ cap saving trades over the summer have created a top-nine opportunity for Patrick to seize if he can stay healthy.

DEFENSE

Alex Pietrangelo

When discussing who the best defenseman was from the first generation of salary cap era players, Pietrangelo won’t be the name that’s thrown out a lot. He’s never been a finalist for the Norris Trophy, nor has he ever led the defenseman scoring race. But he exists at a level just a hair below that: Not quite the very best of his era, but one of the elite blueliners all the same. He’s been consistently excellent, averaging over 24 minutes in each of the last 11 campaigns while averaging over 0.5 points-per-game in each of the last 12 seasons. He maintained his high standards in 2021-22, scoring 13 goals and 44 points in 80 games while averaging 24:39 minutes with Vegas. His contributions go beyond just being a great puck mover though. He ranked second on the Golden Knights with an average of 2:27 shorthanded minutes and he was eighth in the NHL with 164 blocked shots. Plus, while he didn’t get the opportunity to do so last season, he’s had some amazing playoff runs in recent years. He played a critical role in the Blues’ 2019 championship run, contributing three goals and 19 points in 26 postseason games and he was great during Vegas’ 2021 playoff run with four goals and 12 points in 19 contests. All-in-all, he’s been providing the Golden Knights with a valuable foundation to their blueline and given his extensive track record, he’s a safe bet to continue to perform at a high level this season.

Alec Martinez

Sometimes luck just isn’t on your side. Coming off a 2020-21 campaign where Martinez exceeded expectations by scoring nine goals and 32 points in 53 games while averaging 22:34 minutes for Vegas, Martinez was only able to participate in 26 contests last season. His absence was for the flukiest of reasons: Martinez was the unfortunate victim of a cut by the skate of Minnesota's Brandon Duhaime on Nov. 11th. He missed the next four-and-a-half months while recovering from that unfortunate incident. He’s healthy now though, so what should we expect from him? First off, it’d be best to temper your expectations when it comes to his offensive contributions. He saw his production roughly half in 2021-22 in terms of points-per-game from 0.6 to 0.31 and while it’s true that he suffered from a small sample size last season, the 2020-21 campaign was an outlier in the context of his career. He’s also 35-years-old and it wouldn’t be surprising if he shows his age a bit. Even still, he’s good in his own end of the ice and a terrific shot blocker. He easily led the NHL in blocks in 2020-21 with 168. The next best player was Adam Larsson, who finished a full 40 blocks behind him. Even in 2021-22, he still managed to get in front of 68 shots despite being limited to 26 games. So even in the likely event that he doesn’t fully recapture his offensive success in 2020-21, he’s going to be a very useful defenseman for Vegas.

Shea Theodore

Theodore is a defenseman without much of a physical side to his game, he doesn’t stand out at his own end of the ice, and Vegas has never trusted him with a noteworthy amount of shorthanded ice time. There is one thing better than 95% of the defensemen in the league though: generate offense. He moves the puck well and isn’t shy about firing it. In fact, he ranked seventh among defensemen last season with 417 shot attempts. That persistence paid off. Theodore had 14 goals and 52 points in 78 games last season, making it the third straight season that he logged over 40 points. He chipped in on the power play, but where he really stood out was 5v5 play. He ranked fourth among defensemen with 13 even-strength goals and tied for eighth place with 40 even-strength points. While game-winning goals can sometimes be a luck-based stat, it is worth noting that he was also one of just six blueliners with at least five winners. Now 27-years-old, Theodore is firmly in the prime of his career and Vegas has him locked in at $5.2 million. That’s a reasonable cap hit given what he brings to the table and the fact that it’ll stay at that level for the next three seasons is critical for the cap-strapped Golden Knights. Vegas will continue to lean heavily on Theodore next season in even-strength situations and he should continue to get a prominent role with the man advantage. That combined with his skill level makes him a good bet to exceed the 40-point milestone again.

Brayden McNabb

For years now, McNabb has made a good living out of being strong in his own end, sacrificing his body, and making life miserable for anyone he’s up against. He led all blueliners last season with 179 blocks and dished out 154 hits. That made him just one of six players to finish the season with over 150 in both hits and blocks. Given his skill set, it shouldn’t surprise you to find out that he also led the Golden Knights in average shorthanded minutes with 2:38. And yet, that’s where the praise for him ends. He was okay offensively last season with three goals and 18 points in 69 games, but those aren’t exactly eye-catching numbers and yet they’re about as good as it gets for McNabb when measured against his career. The 31-year-old has also lost a touch of his physical edge in 2021-22. He was clearly still an impact player in that regard, but his 6.79 hits/60 last season was the lowest it’s been since his 2011-12 rookie campaign. As he gets older, the 6-foot-4 defenseman might deliver big hits with diminishing frequency, but one season alone doesn’t make a trend and he’s not in the twilight of his career just yet. Even in the scenario where his physical play does continue to slowly taper off, he’ll continue to be a reliable stay-at-home defenseman in 2022-23. How many more years that will be the case though remains to be seen.

GOALTENDING

Laurent Brossoit

The Vegas Golden Knights certainly didn’t seem prepared to name backup Laurent Brossoit as their number one this year, particularly given the negative fan reaction to the team’s surprising choice to deal goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury last summer to the rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks. But with true number one Robin Lehner set to miss extended time for surgery, Vegas will have to hope that the mercurial Brossoit – who can be one of the league’s most underrated backups or one of its most mediocre – can step up and be a reliable option as the team looks to bounce back from their poor 2021-22 showing.

Brossoit has provided ample evidence that he’s capable of playing a powerful, hard-to-beat game; he, like his new backup Adin Hill, is biomechanically more flexible and adaptable than most goaltenders his size, and therefore is able to make stops few other goaltenders are capable of making. But while he has the ability to reach pucks that seem impossible and bend himself into desperation saves few others can, he also struggles to keep his game controlled and contained; he has a bad habit of looking a bit like he’s all limbs and no structure when he starts to panic, which opens up holes and makes him susceptible to being pulled out of position by offensive systems capable of establishing cross-ice passing patterns.

Projected starts: 45-50

Adin Hill

The San Jose Sharks’ acquisition of former Arizona Coyotes prospect Adin Hill in the summer of 2021 was met with mixed reviews, with fans and pundits on both sides of the trade unclear if he was a promising replacement for Martin Jones or a middling prospect who needed a fresh start to truly show what he could do. And after a full year in the Bay Area, it’s still difficult to determine what he offers as he moves teams once again; despite plenty of successful games and a clear top-tier ability to make stops that other goaltenders find physically impossible, Hill’s season with San Jose once again yielded mediocre results that looked just a step or two away from being legitimately good.

Hill’s game shows that he’s capable of holding his own against the league’s best; he’s got lightning-fast footspeed and an elite level of agility that enables him to physically attempt stops from wider stances and more flexible positions than goaltenders less physically limber. But he also has some questionable instincts in both his positioning – particularly with his arms, where he tends to open up holes – and in his depth management, which can be too aggressive for his size. And he’s been known to crumble after bad goals, struggling to keep his composure and getting too reactionary with his movements in a way that opens him up to flurries of goals in the aftermath. That, combined with a tendency to fall into slumps instead of immediately bouncing back from bad games, make him a hard sell as a true starter or 1A on a roster – although with Robin Lehner out in Vegas, the Golden Knights will have to see one of either Hill or Brossoit level their longevity game out in order to bounce back from their disappointing 2021-22 campaign.

Projected starts: 35-40

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Changes in the Vegas crease, Tyler Toffoli moves, top rookie scorers since the schedule pause, Michael Bunting, Nico Hischier, Alex Tuch and more.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 18 Feb 2022 14:15:56 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, changes in the Vegas crease, Tyler Toffoli moves, top rookie scorers since the schedule pause, Michael Bunting, Nico Hischier, Alex Tuch and more.

#1 With word that Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Robin Lehner may be dealing with a shoulder injury, and that it might be significant, the immediate answer in goal for Vegas is Laurent Brossoit. The 28-year-old is 9-4-2 this season with a .906 save percentage, so he may not be the ideal long-term solution, which could be why there are rumors of a potential return for Marc-Andre Fleury, who has been playing well in Chicago, but the Blackhawks are not in playoff contention.

#2 I wrote last week about how Tyler Toffoli had come on after a slow start to the season in Montreal, and that he might be an attractive trade commodity. While the move of Toffoli to the Calgary Flames is a great move for the Flames, getting a play-driving winger who can score, it might not be the best situation for Toffoli in terms of individual production. In his first two games with the Flames, for example, Toffoli has played 12:18 and 12:19, respectively. He isn’t getting power play time, yet, and while that may change at some point, he is not as likely to have a role on PP1 in Calgary the way he was in Montreal.

#3 Staying in Calgary, when the Flames lost defenseman Mark Giordano in the expansion draft, that created an opportunity for someone to rise into a bigger role on the blueline. In the past month, Rasmus Andersson has stepped up, with 11 points (2 G, 9 A) and 34 shots on goal in 13 games, giving him a career high 27 points (2 G, 25 A) in 47 games for the season. Andersson has contributed 10 points on the power play.

WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 26: Panthers center Anton Lundell (15) skates during the Florida Panthers versus Washington Capitals National Hockey League game on November 26, 2021 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

#4 Since the return from the December schedule pause, Florida Panthers center Anton Lundell leads all rookies with 20 points (5 G, 15 A) in 19 games. He is followed by Minnesota’s Matt Boldy (7 G, 7 A in 14 GP), Toronto’s Michael Bunting (9 G, 5 A in 17 GP), Detroit defenseman Moritz Seider (2 G, 12 A in 20 GP), and New Jersey’s Dawson Mercer (3 G, 9 A in 20 GP).

#5 Maple Leafs rookie winger Michael Bunting has really made the most of his opportunity to skate alongside two of the game’s premier forwards, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Bunting has drawn 27 penalties this season, second only to Connor McDavid (32) and leads all rookies with 16 goals and is tied for third among rookies with 33 points.

#6 While he has not had a big offensive explosion that one might expect from a first overall pick, New Jersey Devils center Nico Hischier has picked up his scoring pace. In the past 21 games, Hischier has 16 points (10 G, 6 A) and 48 shots on goal. He has 30 points in 44 games for the season and his 0.68 points per game ties a career high, but the Devils would certainly like to have their 23-year-old captain continue to add offensive production to what is already a sound defensive game.

MONTREAL, QC - FEBRUARY 13: Alex Tuch (89) of the Buffalo Sabres waits for play to begin during the first period of the NHL game between the Buffalo Sabres and the Montreal Canadiens on February 13, 2022, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC(Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

#7 When the Buffalo Sabres traded Jack Eichel to Vegas, they made a big deal about acquiring Syracuse, New York native Alex Tuch, saying that Tuch grew up a Sabres fan and that it was important to acquire a player that wanted to be in Buffalo. While all of that might be true, it also undersold the potential value that Tuch could offer while playing in a first-line role. In 17 games with the Sabres, Tuch has produced 19 points (7 G, 12 A) to go with 58 shots on goal. His ice time is up more than three minutes per game compared to what he was getting in Vegas last season and the 25-year-old power forward is justifying that increased role with his production.

#8 There are quite a few trade rumors swirling around the Vancouver Canucks, with Conor Garland and J.T. Miller among those whose names have hit the trade block. A more recent addition to the trade block is Brock Boeser. While his production has been inconsistent this season, Boeser does have nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 23 shots on goal in his past eight games. That production would work in Vancouver but could also show some of the potential that Boeser might offer to a new team if he does get traded.

#9 He is probably only appealing in the deepest of fantasy leagues or dynasty formats right now, but Buffalo Sabres center Dylan Cozens is starting to have an impact offensively. In his past 11 games, Cozens has eight points and 30 shots on goal. That ability to generate shots is an encouraging sign for Cozens’ future production as he is getting an opportunity to skate on a line with Peyton Krebs and Victor Olofsson.

#10 St. Louis Blues center Robert Thomas has responded with 37 points (7 G, 30 A) in 41 games. Among forwards that have at least 10 assists, Thomas ranks 11^th with 4.29 assists per goal.

The Top 10 forwards in terms of assists-to-goals ratio: Columbus’ Jakub Voracek (15.5), Seattle’s Joonas Donskkoi (14:0), Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf (8.0), Dallas’ Alexander Radulov (7.0), the Islanders’ Josh Bailey (6.0), Winnipeg’s Blake Wheeler (5.4), Seattle’s Alexander Wennberg (4.75), Anaheim’s Jakob Silfverberg (4.67), Nashville’s Mikael Granlund (4.57), and Arizona’s Phil Kessel (4.33).

#11 After a strong finish last season, New Jersey Devils winger Yegor Sharangovich struggled early this season, scoring seven points (3 G, 4 A) in 20 games, but he has settled in alongside Jack Hughes on the top line and in the past 24 games, Sharangovich has contributed 17 points (7 G, 10 A) and 53 shots on goal.

#12 Minnesota Wild center Joel Eriksson Ek has established his reputation as a Selke-caliber checking forward, but his all-around game does include an improving offensive side, too. In his past 17 games, Eriksson Ek has put up 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 61 shots on goal.

#13 As injuries have knocked centers Sean Couturier and Kevin Hayes out of the Philadelphia Flyers lineup, and a trade of Claude Giroux seems to be only a matter of time, there is more responsibility and opportunity going to Scott Laughton and he has responded favorably, with 12 points (4 G, 8 A) and 34 shots on goal with 23 hits in the past 13 games. The physical play is a given with Laughton, but when he is scoring like this that thrusts him into fantasy relevance.

#14 21-year-old Chicago Blackhawks center Kirby Dach was a player that I liked for a breakthrough season after he missed most of last season but that jump in production has not really happened, yet. However, there are some signs of progress as Dach has produced six points (1 G, 5 A) in the past six games. To their credit, the Blackhawks are giving Dach ample opportunity, as Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat are the only Chicago forwards with a higher average time on ice than Dach’s 19:07 per game.

#15 Even though he is no longer a first line scoring winger, Corey Perry has found a useful niche in the Tampa Bay Lightning lineup. In his past 20 games, Perry has scored 15 points (7 G, 8 A), lifting him to 26 points in 49 games on the season, his highest point total since 2017-2018.

#16 A player who seems to be teetering on the precipice, just barely hanging on to an NHL career, Arizona Coyotes center Alex Galchenyuk has had a rare burst of production recently, contributing five points (4 G, 1 A) and 12 shots on goal in the past five games. For a Coyotes team that is really playing out the string, Galchenyuk should have a chance to play a regular role down the stretch and might offer some deep league appeal.

#17 Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Adam Boqvist is a rare statistical breed, a defenseman with more goals (9) than assists (8). Boqvist does have offensive potential, even if he does not keep scoring on 21.4% of his shots. The other defensemen in the league with more goals than assists this season include Montreal’s Ben Chiarot (5 G, 4 A), Carolina’s Brendan Smith (3 G, 2 A) and Arizona’s Dyson Mayo (3 G, 2 A), while Vegas’ Zach Whitecloud (6 G, 6 A), Chicago’s Connor Murphy (4 G, 4 A) and Boston’s Brandon Carlo (3 G, 3 A) are even in those two categories.

#18 As we get deeper into the season, it gets more difficult to find goaltending value on the fantasy waiver wire, but there are usually a couple of goaltenders each week that are still available in a good percentage of leagues that offer some value. This week, consider Dallas Stars netminder Jake Oettinger, the 23-year-old who has turned things around after a pair of rough outings in mid-January. In seven games since then, Oettinger is 5-1 with a .935 save percentage and he may be establishing himself as the No. 1 option in the crease for Dallas.

#19 Last week, I wondered if the Vegas Golden Knights might consider keeping Chandler Stephenson on the top line, even if it meant shifting him to the wing in order to make room for Jack Eichel. That is not the initial plan, as the Golden Knights had Evgeni Dadonov join Eichel and Max Pacioretty on the top line in Eichel’s Vegas debut. Dadonov is going to have to start producing if he is going to stay in that role, though, as he has gone eight straight games without a point despite averaging 16:27 of ice time per game and recording 21 shots on goal.

#20 He may not have great long-term value because he likely won’t remain in a top-six role when the Washington Capitals are healthy, but 26-year-old rookie Joe Snively has been a terrific addition to the Capitals lineup. The former Yale Bulldog has spent the past couple of seasons in the American Hockey League and forced the Capitals to take notice when he had 38 points (15 G, 23 A) in 35 AHL games for Hershey this season. In nine games since getting called up, Snively has delivered seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal. He has climbed up the depth chart to play with Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson on Washington’s second line.

Winnipeg Jets Prospect System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 14 Sep 2018 14:21:29 +0000

For prospect hounds such as ourselves, and presumably you, the Winnipeg Jets of the last few years were a model organization. Not only were they building from within, but they were focusing on high upside talent at the draft. Whether they were drafting early (as they often did) or late, they drafted skill.

There were, of course, exceptions such as the somewhat perplexing decision to select the towering Logan Stanley with the 18^th overall pick in 2016, leaving players like Kieffer Bellows, Henrik Borgstrom, Sam Steel, and Alex DeBrincat on the board. But their other first round pick, Patrik Laine, was so good, it was easy to hand-wave away the Stanley selection.

Winnipeg’s 2017 draft followed that trend again, taking a super high upside forward in Kristian Vesalainen in the first round and following it up with a toolsy, yet very raw defender in Dylan Samberg with their second pick.

Coming into this past season, the Jets still seemed to have a loaded organization when it came to high end prospects. Of that crew, only one player, albeit their best one, Kyle Connor, graduated to the NHL. And he certainly lived up to expectations as well, with 57 points in 75 games. A few other rookies got some time in the NHL, but only Connor graduated from prospect status.

Between the loss (in a good way) of their top prospect, in addition to the trade top 10 challenger Erik Foley to St. Louis along with their first round pick in this year’s draft (again, in a good way for those two -Stastny was very good in his brief stay in Manitoba) and the generally late choices they got by virtue of a successful season at the NHL level, one would have expected a mild drop off in the overall strength of the system. Instead, the system seems to have cratered.

On the one hand, there are still some very talented players at the top. Vesalainen’s stock is as high as ever after a fantastic rookie season in Liiga and Jack Roslovic was only four NHL games away from graduating and should capture a regular NHL job out of training camp this year.

Other than those two though, and perhaps a few other more tangential depth pieces, Winnipeg saw way too many young players regress in 2017-18. The above-mentioned Stanley was healthy but ends his OHL career having never dominated the league over a lengthy stretch. Poolman dealt with injuries and struggled in his first, seemingly rushed, NHL looks.

And those were among the better performers in the Winnipeg system. Most of the other prospects of note were lucky to tread water. Some were not as lucky. Spare a thought to Jansen Harkins, a former second round pick who was ranked s their number seven prospect last summer. He was entering his rookie season as a pro but had had cameos in both last two seasons after his WHL was eliminated and looked good. Not this time. He struggled to assert himself with the Moose and ended up spending time in the ECHL.

Harkins, and all the others, are still young enough to be given every opportunity to recover, but the Jets have surrendered the model development organization mantle.

1 Kristian Vesalainen, LW/RW (24^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 3^rd) After inexplicably falling to the 24^th overall pick in the 2017 draft, Vesalainen had as good a year as he possibly could have, returning to his native Finland for the full season, scoring close to a point per game for HPK, and then helping Karpat to a Liiga championship after switching teams on loan. He was, by 10 points, the leading U20 player in Finland. As good as the numbers were, the skills are even better. All of his offensive tools grade out as high end, and the puck skills are near elite. He has a strong, 6-4”, NHL-ready frame, although it is possible that he spends another year in Europe before getting his NHL shot, as he has yet to sign an ELC. Either way, he is a future top six winger.

Jack Roslovic

2 Jack Roslovic, C/RW (25^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 2^nd) As mentioned above, Roslovic was only a few more NHL games away from losing his eligibility for this list (we don’t count playoff games for this purpose). He topped the point per game mark in his second go round in the AHL. He was a bit tentative in the NHL and his possession numbers underwhelmed, the skill set to play a regular middle six role, whether up the middle or in the wing, is still there. He is a strong skater with a very good shot and puck skills. Additional experience should allow him to play a more assertive style, much like he jumped into the AHL as a 19-year-old and dominated like few teenagers do. Considering the Jet’s depth at center, expect Roslovic to mostly play right wing for now.

3 Mason Appleton, C/RW (168^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 10^th) A prime example of how the Jets built one of the previously best and deepest systems in the NHL, Appleton was not a great skater in his draft year, but had always shown puck skills and vision, whether it was in his one year in the USHL, or prior to that as a Wisconsin prepster. He hit the ground running with Michigan State as a freshman and never looked back, turning pro after his sophomore campaign. His AHL rookie season was sensational, as he finished fourth in the league in scoring. His skating is much improved from his amateur days and he has also upped his finishing ability. Once an afterthought, now Appleton should be first in line when the Jets need to call up a forward.

4 Sami Niku, D (198^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 9^th) The number two scoring defenseman in his AHL rookie campaign Niku, drafted one round after Appleton, is another poster example of the benefits of drafting for skill in all rounds. He even scored a goal in his one game NHL cameo. A solid skater with fantastic puck moving and puck protection skills, he fits the modern game to a ‘T’. He is on the lean side and does not project to be a force in his own end or along the boards, but when his tea has the puck, he won’t need to be. If he can show more subtlety when shooting, he could be a near perfect power play weapon. Numbers might keep him in the AHL for another year, but his time should come soon enough.

5 Dylan Samberg, D (43^rd overall, 2017. Last Year: 8^th) Although Samberg has yet to demonstrate that he could be an offensive factor from the blueline, he has all of the tools you want to see in a defender whose priority is to drive the transition from defense to offense. He generally makes the simple play instead of trying for flash. He reads game situations at a surprisingly advanced level, considering how he only had 14 games above high school level before joining Minnesota-Duluth this year, where he helped spearhead a young blueline into a surprise national championship. Samberg is probably more of a #4/5 than a #2/3 going forward, but he looks like a future contributor, even if it will be a quiet contributor.

Logan Stanley

6 Logan Stanley, D (18^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 4^th) As mentioned above, Logan Stanley is big. At 6-7”, 227, he is easily among the biggest prospects – in fact, players of any stripe - in the sport. Stanley is more than just a Coke-Machine on ice, though. He moves very well for his size, and pretty well for any size, and can flash some offensive instinct. He knows how to use his size for good effect, and his reach in particular is elite. His 42-point season with the Kitchener Rangers was a fitting high on which to end his junior career, but his 16 points in 19 postseason games really hinted at the best case scenario. The Jets will be patient with Stanley as he explores his upside, but at worst, he will play in a bottom pairing role in the NHL.

7 Tucker Poolman, D (127^th overall, 2013. Last Year: 5^th) Although Poolman was given the opportunity to make the Jets out of camp last year, he was caught in a numbers game, dressing for only three of the team’s first 11 games before being sent back down to the Moose. He was up and down between the AHL and NHL throughout the year, but never really got settled in either league and only appeared in 43 games combined. Although given only limited and sheltered minutes with the Jets, to Poolman’s credit, he put up strong possession numbers. He still flashed some of the two-way abilities that made him such a coveted, if late-blooming NCAA prospect. He skates well for a bigger player and has some puck moving ability. Already 25 years old, this is Poolman’s last year on this list, one way or another.

8 David Gustafsson, C (60^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) The first name called out by the Winnipeg brass in the 2018 draft, Gustafsson is a broad-shouldered pivot who has already shown the ability to hold his own against men with a solid age 17 season in the SHL. More smart than anything else, his general lack of speed ensured that he was still available through most of two rounds. He projects as more of a shooter than a playmaker, which is more due to lack of creativity than inability to create plays for his teammates. Between his reads, size, strength, and temperament, he will be a handful no matter where he stands. He is signed for three more years with HV71 but expect the Jets to try to buy him out of that pact before it expires.

9 Michael Spacek, C (108^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 13^th) After a strong junior career both in the WHL and representing his native Czech Republic (he played in three WJCs and two WU18s) Spacek had a fine, if understated start to his pro career with the Moose. He demonstrated that his slightly undersized frame could withstand the rigors of playing against men and he provided secondary scoring to boot with 17 goals. Although not the toolsiest of players, he showed a nice shot, with the one-timer being a legitimate weapon from the slot. His skills play up somewhat thanks to good hockey sense, although the overall package speaks to a bottom six upside. One of many such prospects in this system, Spacek is closer than most of the others to being able to slot into the NHL lineup.

Santeri Virtanen

10 Santeri Virtanen, C (105^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 6^th) A gamble on tools, the Jets selected Virtanen with a fourth-round pick in 2017 despite being limited to 25 games at all levels in his draft year after a very impressive showing at the WU18s. It is too early to curse a player with the “injury-prone” label, nut after playing only 37 games at all levels this year, he is trending that way. Virtanen is an excellent skater with impressive hockey IQ, and enough puck skills to project as a two-way forward, but he needs to stat on the ice much more. He will be returning to Finland this year after a year in the USHL. Until he plays more regularly, he is a wild card.

11 Eric Comrie, G (59^th overall, 2013. Last Year: 12^th) There was a time not all that long ago, that Eric Comrie was ahead of Connor Hellebuyck in the Winnipeg pipeline. He had higher draft pedigree and some international experience. That ship has long since sailed. It is hard to blame Comrie for that though. He is an adequate all-around goalie whose best attributes are his glove hand and his ability to read the play, but goalie development is rarely linear. At least, it wasn’t for Hellebuyck. Comrie, on the other hand, has been inching his way forward over the last three seasons in the AHL, with a career best .916 save percentage last year. As his reward, he will be slightly favored to win the NHL backup job this year.

12 Brendan Lemieux, LW (Trade: Feb. 11, 2015. Last Year: 19^th) Playing more like his father Claude every year, Brendan Lemieux is a beefy player with good speed and a mean streak that burns hot over the long Manitoba winters. It is not a boast to note his second in the AHL 170 penalty minutes, but they do give a good indication of the type of player that he is. To his credit, he also more than doubled his previous AHL point totals, in ten fewer games than the previous year. If he can contain his temper just a touch more, he could have an NHL future as a pest. So far, that proposition is not a sure thing.

13 Giovanni Vallati, D (153^rd overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) While we were less than impressed on the whole with the Jets’ 2018 draft class, we applauded their selection of Vallati in the fifth round. Once a first-round pick in the OHL entry draft, he has quietly put up two solid seasons for Kitchener since then. A smooth skating blueliner, he has flashed high end smarts and a burgeoning physical game, although none of those traits has been all that consistent, or all at the same time, thus far. He has upside as a defensive defenseman who is not a liability on the puck, but he is still young enough to hope for more in time.

14 Clinston (C.J.) Suess, LW (129^th overall, 2014. Last Year: unranked) Suess, formerly known as C.J. Franklin, ended his NCAA eligibility on a high note, with career highs in both goals and assists, and being named a Hobey Baker award finalist, after leading Minnesota Stake-Mankato to their first NCAA tournament in three seasons. Although Suess is not blessed with a full glowing tool set, he plays a gritty, team-first game and shows a good understanding of the game, enabling what tools he does have to play up. He is likely no more than a fourth line winger at the highest level, but he is a good example of why teams are wise to take late round chances on college bound players in the draft.

15 Laurent Brossoit, G (UFA: Jul. 1, 2018. Last Year: 6^th (Edmonton)) Brossoit had appeared in NHL games for four straight years for the Edmonton Oilers, with last year’s 14 games representing a career high. His .883 save percentage in that span was not, unfortunately for him, a career low. The Oilers had been hoping that he could be a reliable backup to Cam Talbot in the NHL, but the former Calgary sixth round pick was clearly not up to the task. Perhaps with the Jets, his third organization – all Central Canadian clubs – will be the place for him to shine. He will have a chance to compete against Eric Comrie for the backup job for the Jets, but for all of his technical competence and rebound control, his struggles reading the play make him the underdog in this race.

16 Skyler McKenzie, C (198^th overall, 2018. Last Year: unranked) Around 11 inches shorter and close to 60 pounds lighter than Logan Stanley, McKenzie finished his WHL career with two near identical seasons of 84 and 87 points, topping 40 goals both times. Although he lacks any one standout tool, all of them – barring physicality, of course – grade out as above average. He played in all situations for Portland but will most likely be sheltered as a pro until he proves that he can withstand the tighter game of the AHL. Even as the game is growing less averse to smaller, skilled players, when you are small as McKenzie, you have to keep proving yourself before the caveats are removed from your point totals.

Luke Green

17 Luke Green, D (79^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 14^th) The number one overall pick of the 2014 QMJHL entry draft, Green struggled to actuate his tools through most of his junior career. While his production was far stronger in his last year on a per-game basis, injuries limited him to only 14 regular season games with Sherbrooke. He is a solid skater with above average hockey sense, but his offensive tools have not yet convinced that they can play at a high level as a pro. As he enters his rookie season in the AHL, he will also have to prove that the whispers of attitude problems that followed him in junior will not be an impediment to his ability to actuate his skills.

18 Mikhail Berdin, G (157^th overall, 2016. Last Year: unranked) Originally drafted out of the Russian 18U program, Berdin came to North America and excelled in the USHL over two seasons, even earning the third string role for the Russian WJC squad last year. Although he has yet to be truly tested at an advanced level, Berdin displays a lot of attributes that suggest that good things are in his future. He is athletic and hard-nosed. He is also perhaps the most skilled and definitely the most daring puck handling goalie among all affiliated prospects. He will play pucks that other goalies don’t even think about. So it isn’t so surprising that he scored an empty net goal last season with Sioux Falls.

19 Pavel Kraskovsky, C (164^th overall, 2014. Last Year: 15^th) Now a three-year KHL veteran, Kraskovsky has settled in as a 200-foot player who makes up in own zone responsibility what he lacks in offensive skills. He actually has solid puck skills but has not yet figured out how to turn that into offensive production. For the most part, Kraskovsky is a high IQ player who understands the game and knows how to make the safe, coaching friendly plays. Big and rangy, he has yet to fully fill out his 6-4” frame. The Jets are in no rush to bring him to North America and considering that he just signed a two year contract extension with Lokomotiv Yaroslavl, Kraskovsky isn’t in a rush either.

20 JC Lipon, RW (91^st overall, 2013. Last Year: 17^th) A bruising winger who has seemingly plateaued at around 30 points a year in the AHL, Lipon has the skating and hockey IQ to play a role in the NHL, but he will never play as more than a fourth liner. His offensive limitations may prevent him from getting back to the NHL, which he experienced in a nine-game trial in the 2015-16 season, but his impressive physical game, with big hits at open ice and along the boards, along with the wheels and responsibility to help out on the PK, could lead to a long career as an unheralded energy line player.

Edmonton – System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 15 Sep 2017 16:11:54 +0000

The Edmonton Oilers have had a lot of recent experience drafting very high in recent years, famously picking first three years in a row from 2010-2012. To their credit, they have done a solid job with their top picks, with the notable exceptions of Nail Yakupov and, to a lesser extent, Magnus Paajarvi.

Connor McDavid is, if not the best, at least among the top two players in the game. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall have also turned into strong forwards. Leon Draisaitl looks like a stud playing on McDavid’s wing. Darnell Nurse is still developing, but has all of the tools to become a first pairing defender. Oskar Klefbom already is a legitimate first pairing defender.

With so many high end, young picks on the NHL roster, the question has been why the team could not become a consistent playoff contender sooner. The answer lies in nearly every other pick or prospect acquisition made by the club in around ten years. In the ten drafts leading up to this one, the only players of note drafted by the Oilers after the first round have been Anton Lander (215 games, 35 points), Martin Marincin (175 games, 25 points), and Tobias Reider (234 games, 92 points). No one else among those players appeared in more than 101 NHL games. Even limited to those three, Reider never played for the Oilers, who traded his player rights to Arizona while he was still in the OHL. Notably, the player the received in return never played in the NHL.

The next question can then only be why did the team get so little from their drafts after the obvious, high first round talent was scoured through? The most commonly cited complaint about the Oilers drafting in recent years – particularly in the years before Peter Chiarelli took over as GM – was that they drafted for roles instead of drafting for talent. In other words, they did not draft players who they thought were good, they drafted prospects who were role players for their junior team, with the expectation that it would be easy to mold them into role players at the higher levels.

Unfortunately, that rarely works. Even mediocre fourth liners in the NHL were top six talents in amateur hockey. Frankly, the Oilers should have known better. To cherry-pick one example, in 2007, with their third of three first round picks, Edmonton selected Riley Nash, a high scoring forward with Salmon Arm of the BCHL. Nash then spent three seasons at Cornell, scoring around one point per game throughout. Since then, he has matured into a competent but limited fourth line forward, contributing 0.3 points per game over 4.5 seasons in the NHL.

Compare that with, say Mitchell Moroz, who they selected in the second round in 2012. Moroz had pro size, but was a depth forward in the WHL, with nearly four penalty minutes for each point. Through three AHL seasons, his season high in points is 10 and with his ELC expired, the best contract he could get for next year was an ECHL contract. For the successes of last season not to end up as an aberration, the practice of drafting down needs to be a thing of the past.

Edmonton Oilers rookie and 4th overall draft pick Jesse Puljujarvi #98 (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

1 Jesse Puljujarvi – Although he was not yet ready for the NHL, Pujujarvi showed flashes with the Oilers, and more with Bakersfield in his age 18 season, to suggest that, like Leon Draisaitl before him, he will yet emerge as a strong contributor to a playoff team. Physically ready, with a pro-style game and a very good wrist shot, he will get used to the pace of the game. Long lauded for his high hockey IQ, it is a matter of time before it all clicks. His leash this year will be longer.

Kailer Yamamoto. Photo by Larry Brunt.

2 Kailer Yamamoto – A rare undersized player drafted by the Oilers, Yamamoto is a big game player with near elite offensive skills. A great skater and puck handler, he put up 13 points in seven games as an underager in the 2016 WU18 before finishing sixth in WHL in his draft year. The Oilers may see him as a future McDavid linemate, taking the role the similarly height-challenged Alex DeBrincat mastered alongside McDavid with Erie.

3 Tyler Benson – After injuries decimated his draft season, Benson started the season with the Vancouver Giants on fire before injury struck again, again ending his season early. When healthy, he is a great skater, with plus-plus playmaking skills and a strong, physical approach to the game. His shot is also enough of a weapon to fit on a top six line at the highest level. If his health problems are finally behind him, he could explode.

Stuart Skinner

4 Stuart Skinner – The highest upside netminder in the system, Skinner was a full time starter in the WHL for three full seasons before he was eligible for the draft. A big player with decent agility for his size, he plays a mostly butterfly style that allows him to block the bottom of the net very well. His occasional lapses in concentration allowed him to drop to the third round, but he generally tracks the puck well and minimizes second chances.

5 Caleb Jones – The first, and best, of four defensemen drafted by Edmonton in 2015, Jones will never be as tall nor as talented as older brother Seth, but he is a fine prospect in his own right. Although his point totals in the WHL have been impressive and have improved year over year, he is actually more notable for his defensive zone game. He is a solid skater who plays an aggressive game, usable in all situations. Best defenseman in the system.

6 Laurent Brossoit – After Jonas Gustavsson flame out last year, Brossoit, who had struggled in emergency duty for the Oilers in 2015-16, came up and finally looked ready to face NHL shooters. A fundamentally sound shot blocker, he is not the most athletic netminder, but understands angles very well and minimizes ugly rebounds. His ceiling may only be that of a backup, but it is a good backup, and he is ready now. The job is his.

7 Ostap Safin – After drafting small in the first round, Edmonton self-corrected in subsequent rounds, taking large human after large human. At 6-4”, 200, Safin certainly qualifies. More than just a big body, he has some intriguing offensive upside, featuring great net drive, great each reach and puck protection skills. He is a very good skater for his size. His offensive output in the Czech junior ranks and internationally for the Czech U18 squads was strong, but he should be able to produce even more.

8 Kirill Maksimov – A Russian born winger who has been in Canada since he was at least 14, Maksimov took big steps in his draft year after being traded from Saginaw to Niagara. Although his game suffered from bouts of inconsistency, at his best, he was often the best player on the ice. He has pro size, a responsible two-way game and very good puck skills. He is mobile, as well. If he can bring his A-game more often, the fifth round pick will turn out to be a steal.

9 Jujhar Khaira – A heavy presence on the boards, Khaira took his time developing his offensive game in the AHL, but now seems to be ready to produce enough to fit in on an energy line in the NHL. His skating is impressive coming from his broad body, particularly his edge work. He is comfortable playing with the puck, with very strong possession skills, or off of it, as he can be devilish in pursuit. Pretty close to a finished product.

10 Ziyat Paigin – A mountain of a man with the point shot to match, Paigin came to North America at the end of his season in the KHL. He came into prominence in his third year of draft eligibility through impressive performances across North America with the Russian contingent in the Subway Series which was followed up with strong work at the WJC. Last season was a disappointment after a great first post draft year with HK Sochi, the Oilers will be patient with his acclimation to the North American game.

11 Ethan Bear – Short, yet stocky and sturdy, Bear was one point shy of averaging a point per game combined across his last two WHL seasons with Seattle, although he easily surpasses that benchmark if we include postseason play. He is a plus skater with very promising puck moving skills and an underrated yet quiet game in his own zone. He will have to prove himself all over again as he makes the leap to the AHL.

12 Markus Niemelainen – A towering blueliner who specializes in controlling play in his own zone, Niemelainen’s puck play suffered in his first post draft year with his point totals dropping by a full two-thirds. A decent skater for his size, he has in the past demonstrated decent puck moving skills, showing the ability to get the puck smartly into more dangerous positions. Due to his offensive limitations, his floor is a lot higher than his ceiling.

13 Dylan Wells – Drafted as a poor performing project in 2016, Wells raised his save percentage by a remarkable 45 points in his first post draft year, putting himself firmly on the radar for Edmonton’s future goaltending needs. He has fantastic compete level, is a fine athlete and is also an above average puck handler for a goalie. The Oilers are suddenly flush with netminders, and if Wells can build off last year, he will force some uncomfortable decisions down the road.

14 John Marino – Originally drafted out of the USPHL, Marino has since stepped up and conquered the USHL – winning a title with Tri-City – and NCAA hockey, where he was a key blueline contributor to a Frozen Four entrant with Harvard. Lanky, with room to grow, he brings above average mobility, solid puck moving skills and a promising game in his own zone to the ice. He will stay with Harvard for a few seasons yet, but has already come a long way and seems to have more to come.

15 Ryan Mantha – Originally a fourth round pick of the New York Rangers in 2014, the Blueshirts never offered Mantha a contract. Freed from his draft organization, Mantha had a monster overage year with Niagara, with nearly one point per game, mostly on the strength of his heavy point shot, which he would never hesitate to unleash, often registering 10 or more shots per game. He also has plus size, which makes him effective in scrums, but also contributes to below average foot speed.

16 Joe Gambardella – The more intriguing of the two NCAA free agents inked by the Oilers this year. Gambardella has been a top offensive producer for each of his last three seasons with U.Mass-Lowell. Short and stocky, he is tough in the corners, has good puck possession skills and a plus shot. He also plays a mature game, very alert and ready to spring into action. He has bottom six NHL upside.

17 Nick Ellis – A seldom used backup in his first two years at Providence, Ellis took over the starter’s mantle in 2015-16 and was so good, the Oilers offered him a free agent contract to pass up a fourth year of NCAA eligibility. Undersized by modern standards, he demonstrates a high level of poise in the crease and sticks very well with the shooter. He has great lateral movement, thanks to a very strong push, and projects as a potential future NHL backup.

18 Joey LaLeggia – Two years removed from his exploits with Denver, where he was a Hobey Baker finalist, LaLeggia seems to be almost through the transition from offense-only defenseman to secondary-offense producer winger. He plays at a very fast pace when on the offensive, using his speed to push defenders back on their heels. He is the exact inverse in his own zone, though, easy to get off-balance and out of position. He is more likely to make the NHL on the wing.

19 Aapeli Rasanen – A late round 2016 draft pick who produced more in international play than he did for Tappara’s junior club, that pattern repeated itself this year. Rasanen had middling numbers with USHL finalist Sioux City, despite often lining up with first rounder Eeli Tolvanen, but was one of Finland’s best threats at the WJC. He has solid vision in the offensive zone and is a strong passer. His best asset is his two-way game. Will play for Boston College next year.

20 Dmitri Samorukov – Although his defensive game got the most work in league play with OHL bottom-feeders Guelph, once he got to the WU18 tournament at year’s end, Samorukov showed off an impressive offensive element with five points in seven games for the blueliner. In his own zone, he offers tight coverage and a good stick. Moving up the ice, he is a strong passer with an average point shot. It will be interesting to see if any of that carries over into next season.

Although the Oilers still place an inordinate weight on a prospect’s size before drafting him – 16 of the top 20 are at least 6-0” tall, and eight are at least 6-3”, they have at least taken to ensuring that they are drafting skilled players, instead of drafting to fill out a role. If Yamamoto excels the way that many – ourselves included – expect, Edmonton might start scouting and drafting from a wider range of heights.

Selecting Team Canada’s Top Four Goalies

McKeen's Hockey — Tue, 20 Nov 2012 00:56:05 +0000

After watching all six games of the Subway Super Series, I took some time this weekend to put myself in Ron Tugnutt’s and Kevin Prendergrast’s scouting shoes, and selected four goalies to attend Team Canada’s tryouts for the 2012 World Junior Championships.

Below are my selections, along with some scouting notes and insights on why I think they fit the bill for Team Canada. I also discussed the goalies below on The Pipeline Show last weekend, which you can listen to by clicking here.

Malcolm Subban: I think the starting job is clearly Subban’s to lose, and rightfully so. Only in his fifth year as a goaltender, the 18-year-old’s athletic blueprint is extremely impressive. His sheer speed, flexibility, and puck-stopping instincts were consistently on display in his 30 minutes of action in Game 3 of the Subway Super Series, just as it has been all season long in Belleville.

Malcolm’s natural traits like vision, balance, and eye-hand coordination proves he’s a gifted athlete, but he still has the solid technical base to lead Team Canada in the World Juniors. That was likely the main reason Boston drafted him in the first round last summer.

I also really like Subban’s glove hand positioning. It’s out in front of his body, but with the elbow tucked in and activated. If he sees it cleanly, he’s catching it, and that’s an important skill for a goalie to have in today’s game.

Subban tracks pucks well and seals the ice down low with strength and stability, and his wide stance allows him to build a wide butterfly wall on low shots, while still utilizing his reflexes to stop deflections or pounce on loose pucks. With great net coverage at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, he also has plenty of swagger in his game, so I think he’ll embrace the pressure of leading Canada at the World Juniors.

Laurent Brossoit: The 19-year-old workhorse for the Oil Kings brings a solid combination of size and athleticism to the crease. His shutout in the 1-0 shootout win over Russia in Game 5 was considered (along with Andrey Makarov’s shutout) the most impressive performance in the tournament.

Brossoit deserves a spot because he brings a mature and composed mindset to the crease, and he’s starting to get hot at just the right time. Heading into the Subway Super Series, he was 3-1-0 with only seven goals allowed on 123 shots (.943 SV%).

What I like so much about his game is the decision-making and the adaptability. If he needs to fill space and rely on blocking pucks to make saves, he can do it. If he needs to rely on flexibility and make a timely reaction save, he can do it. He has good patience on his edges and knows how to stand up to make a save.

Brossoit also has a strong core and a lanky frame, so he can extend a foot while in the down position to take away space at the last moment. He can also make the crowd-pleasing reflex glove save by snaring pucks out of the air, and he can stay square to shooters by gaining depth in the crease, making himself bigger, and relying on that lanky frame to eliminate space in the upper and lower corners.

Laurent wasn’t very controlled or consistent in Game 6 against Russia, but his overall skill-set has him likely slated for not only a camp invite, but a potential spot as Subban’s backup.

Jordan Binnington: The cool, calm, and collected workhorse for the Owen Sound Attack is having a stellar season so far. In fact, he was just voted as the OHL’s Player of the Week after going 2-1-0 with two shutouts and a .956 save percentage. He’ll have his detractors since he allowed two goals in a botched 2-1 loss in Game 3, but he bounced back with a solid outing in Game 4.

The main thing to take away from Binnington is that he’s a smooth operator in goal. He’s a solid positional goalie that relies on his size to let pucks hit him, but he has good hands and instincts as well. When it comes to selecting goalies for a tournament like the World Juniors, the poise and even-keeled demeanor he brings goes a long way, and that’s why I feel he deserves a camp invite.

Zach Fucale: The toughest decision in my book was selecting the fourth goalie to attend camp. I narrowed it down to the two 1995-born goalies in Fucale and Eric Comrie, as both are clearly at the head of their class. In the end, I sided with Fucale, and here’s why.

In his 30 minutes of action against Team Russia, the only goal he allowed was on a shorthanded rush where a shot went off Nail Yakupov’s body and under the blocker. It was a tough and tricky goal to allow at the time, but Zach’s demeanor and body language didn’t change at all. He remained even-keeled in all areas, from rebound control to his ability to square up and seal holes.

That is one of Fucale’s shining traits – he seems to absorb everything, regardless of the situation. The more shots he absorbs, the more he controls the pace and the flow of the game, and the more it helps Team Canada dictate the game’s momentum.

Secondly, the 80 games he played last season allowed him to gain wisdom from experience that Comrie hasn’t yet gained. Fucale won a Gold Medal in the Ivan Hlinka Tournament over the summer, a tournament that was played on the Olympic-sized ice. To me, that’s an advantage worth noting, because it breeds a level of familiarity that can benefit Team Canada. Comrie was Fucale’s backup for that tournament, so while he did get some experience on the Olympic ice, it’s not as significant as Fucale’s performance in the event.

On the flip side, there are certainly plenty of good reasons why Comrie deserves to earn an invite to Team Canada’s training camp as well. Both goalies are exceptional for their age, and they will continue to be touted as the top goalies available in this summer’s draft.

But for the sake of this report, knowing I had to choose just four goalies for the World Juniors, I sided with Fucale.