Lewis Zerter-Gossage – McKeen's Hockey

Dropping the puck on the 2018-19 NCAA season – Part 1 – Atlantic 10, WCHA, ECAC

Ryan Wagman — Tue, 23 Oct 2018 11:25:24 +0000

Don’t call it a preview. The NCAA Men’s Ice Hockey slate technically kicked off in the last weekend of September with the beginning of the annual set of exhibition games between American schools and Canadian ones as Simon Fraser (the only Canadian school to hand out athletic scholarships) went up to Alaska to play one each against Fairbanks and Anchorage.

In 36 total exhibition games played between NCAA schools and their north-of-the-border equivalents, mostly stocked with CHL graduates, the American schools only lost four times, with one draw, coming out victorious 31 times.

There are currently 60 schools participating in Division I Men’s Ice Hockey, and the majority have taken their first few tentative steps toward a hopeful berth in the year ending Frozen Four, this year set to take place in Buffalo, New York, after four regionals in Providence, Rhode Island, Manchester, New Hampshire, Fargo, North Dakota, and Allentown, Pennsylvania.

The clearest way to run through the level is conference by conference, of which there are six, but in fairness, a word should be spared for the sole independent school, Arizona State, which has not been able to find a suitable conference home since joining the top flight of the collegiate ranks in time for the 2015-16 season. In three seasons, the Sun Devils have won 23 games out of the 95 they played. As impressive as their four wins in their first six games of the new season is, they have come against Alaska-Fairbanks and Alabama-Huntsville, not exactly powerhouses in their own rights either. To their credit, they played well in losing a set against Ohio State, and goaltender Joel D’Accord, an Ottawa draft pick has been spectacular, with a .956 save percentage playing every minute. ASU may be improved but they are still far from a regional threat.

Atlantic 10

The A10 is both the only conference to have started inter-conference games in earnest, and the only conference that can be generally overlooked from a scouting perspective, at least as far as future NHLers are concerned. Of the 194 NHL drafted players currently suiting up for NCAA teams, only three play for A10 schools and there is a good chance that none of the three ever signs an NHL contract. Robert Morris is usually a good bet to compete for the conference’s automatic NCAA entry, but Mercyhurst is worth a look this year, if their early-season, non-conference games are any indications, as they include an exciting 6-6 tie against powerhouse Notre Dame, as well as a victory over Ferris State. If there is a dark horse candidate to have NHL teams sniffing around, keep tabs on Dylan McLaughlin, a senior center with Canisius. He was a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award last year after putting up 48 points in 37 games and has six in his first four games of the new season.

Western Collegiate Hockey Association

Although not quite as overlooked as the A10, the WCHA is no longer a collegiate powerhouse conference, as the formation of the NCHC has left the once-feared conference lacking in world beaters. The conference is currently home to only seven NHL drafted players, but there are usually a few more every year who garner NHL interest and a number of others who wind up playing on AHL deals after graduation. Of the ten teams in the WCHA, we can almost dismiss out of hand the two Alaskan members, as Fairbanks and Anchorage are hamstrung by insane travel schedules and lack much in the way of impact talent. We can also skip over Alabama-Huntsville, which has not had a winning season since 2005-06 and has lost its top two scorers from last year to graduation.

In the uninspiring middle, we find schools such as Lake Superior State, Ferris State, Northern Michigan, and Bemidji State. LSS has fallen a long way from the near dynasty that claimed three NCAA titles between 1988-1994 and has been among the weakest teams in the country over the last four years. They will need big years from Latvian netminder Mareks Mitens and senior forward Diego Cuglietta to have a chance. Ferris State has been known to have the odd big year of late, and have a few interesting players on the roster, including Boston draft pick Cam Clarke, and captain Corey Mackin, an undersized point producer. Northern Michigan rarely gets much press, but they quietly put up a very good year last year and have some impact forwards returning, including Darien Craighead and Adam Rockwood. Keep an eye on tiny freshman Griffin Loughran, who was a key contributor with USHL champions Fargo last year. Bemidji State is similarly unheralded, although with a veteran roster including returns from three of their top five scorers from last year, could be strong, even without any NHL prospects of note.

Michigan Tech was a surprise NCAA tournament team last year and could make noise again. They start a pair of senior forwards in Jake Jackson and Jake Lucchini, the former of which is a Sharks draft pick. Minnesota State (Mankato) was the top team in the conference last year, but have lost two of their better players to the NHL. There are still a number of good college players on the roster who should keep the Mavericks competitive, including Parker Tuomie, Marc Michaelis, Reggie Lutz, Jake Jaremko, and others. With decent goaltending, they could top the conference once again. That said, the favorite going into the year should be Bowling Green State. The only team in the WCHA with more than one drafted player, the Falcons have three, between start netminder Ryan Bednard (Florida), defenseman Adam Smith (Nashville) and winger Brandon Kruse (Vegas). Sophomore Max Johnson also seems primed for a big year. The team has youth and offensive depth to challenge any team in the conference.

Eastern Collegiate Athletic Conference

As is typical, the ECAC lets the rest of the college hockey world get started before they drop the puck, with murmurs of academic integrity among the conference’s Ivy League schools the typical explanation. Only five of the 12 schools have played regular season games so far. Let us hand wave away the chances of RPI and St. Lawrence, the former of which has won only 14 games combined over the past two years. Their most interesting player is Penguins’ draft pick Will Reilly, an offensive defenseman. St. Lawrence has been good in the recent past, but the bottom fell out last year (8-27-2) and they seem to lack the horses to turn that around too much. Blueliner Bo Hanson earned some attention in his USHL days, and 6-8” Keenan Suthers struggled to assert himself in his time in the USNTDP or as a freshman, but has started strong this year. Dartmouth could be mildly interesting, if not a true contender, what with most of their top scorers returning. I am most curious to see if big Will Graber could take the team on his broad shoulders. He will be supported by Shane Sellar and Quin Foreman. Another Ivy League dark horse is Brown, which has not surpassed eight wins in a season since 2013-14. They have some interesting recruits arriving for the 2019-20 season, but for now will be reliant on co-captains Tom Marchin, and Max Gottlieb to spearhead the attack. The back half of the conference should be completed with Colgate and Yale. Colgate was a surprise competitor last season behind the goaltending of Colton Point, but he is now in the Dallas system. AJHL alumnus Mitchel Benson is the new netminder in town and the offense seems to have a “by-committee” construct. Yale has a lot of talent on the team, including four drafted players, but lacks much in the way of offensive experience after returning leading scorer Joe Snively. Between Phil Kemp (Edmonton) and Jack St. Ivany (Philadelphia), their blueline will be worth watching.

Despite losing top defenders Terence Amorosa and Kelly Summers to graduation and speedy forward Sheldon Rempal early to LA, Clarkson returns enough talent to threaten in the ECAC again. Netminder Jake Kielly has been a workhorse since first stepping foot on campus. The offensive attack will be led by the returning trio of captain Devin Brosseau, tiny sophomore Jack Jacome, and big German Nico Sturm. Among the prized newcomers are included Nick Campoli (Vegas) and big Josh Dunne, whose game I liked in the USHL. Union shocked the hockey world by winning the NCAA title in 2013-14, led by Shayne Gostisbehere, Daniel Carr, Mike Vecchione, and others. Those days are long gone, but this team still attracts a fine standard of player. Cole Maier has matured into a leading player, while fellow senior Brett Supinski has been a top scorer since first stepping foot on campus. San Jose draft pick Jake Kupsky seems ready for his big chance to take over in goal and Detroit pick Jack Adams could take a step forward.

Princeton surprisingly won the ECAC postseason tournament last year, and despite losing Eric Robinson to Columbus, top scorers Max Veronneau, Ryan Kuffner, Jackson Cressey, and Josh Teves eschewed the pros for another kick at the can. Netminder Ryan Ferland needs to take another step forward to convince me that they can return to the dance. Quinnipiac struggled somewhat last season, looking little like the team that made the NCAA finals twice in a four year span earlier in the decade. With big netminder Keith Petruzzelli (Detroit) looking like he has put a disappointing freshman season behind him, they could be returning to the former heights. There is proven talent up and down the roster, led by blueliners Chase Priskie (Washington), Karlis Cukste (San Jose) and Brandon Fortunato and forwards William Fallstrom, Craig Martin, Odeen Tufto, and the speedy Wyatt Bongiovanni.

That leaves us with two serious contenders for the conference crown. Cornell lost its top three scorers, but returns a ton more and should prove to be very strong at the back. Netminder Matthew Galajda was sensational as a freshman. The blueline is talented and deep, featuring Yanni Kaldis, Alex Green (Tampa Bay), Alec McCrea, Cody Haiskanen, and the hope that Edmonton pick Matthew Cairns can stay healthy and show some of the talent that he displayed two years ago. Rangers pick Morgan Barron, along with returning contributors Brenden Locke, Jeff Malott, and Mitchell Vanderlaan should lead the offensive attack. Freshman Maxim Andreyev is also one to watch. The stacked roster in Ithaca aside, the team to beat in the ECAC should be Harvard. This is a team with six drafted players on the roster, all of whom are legit prospects, as opposed to the late round fliers that we sometimes see on NCAA rosters. The strength of this team is on the blueline, starring Adam Fox (Carolina), Reilly Walsh (New Jersey), John Marino (Edmonton) and freshman Jack Rathbone (Vancouver). All play two-way games, and Fox and Walsh are both particularly dynamic talents, on the small side, mobile and skilled with the puck. There is less up front, but captain Lewis Zerter-Gossage was a big contributor last season, Anaheim draft pick Jack Badini should increase his production as a sophomore and freshman Jack Drury (Carolina), Baker Shore, and Casey Dornbach were all big point producers in the USHL. The main question the Crimson will have to answer is who will replace Merrick Madsen in net. Big Michael Lackey probably gets first dibs, but keep an eye on freshman Derek Schaedig, who also has ideal size and has had success in his time in the NAHL and USHL.

Frozen Four Preview: High end offense highlights championship series

Ryan Wagman — Tue, 04 Apr 2017 12:28:54 +0000

This coming Thursday (April 6, 2017) marks the beginning of the annual Frozen Four NCAA championship series. In the early game, the third seed (nationally) Harvard takes on #2 ranked University of Minnesota-Duluth. Shortly after the completion of that game, the first seed, Denver, will play the Frozen Four underdog, Notre Dame. The respective winners of the two games will meet on Saturday, with the winner crowned as NCAA champions for 2017.

March 27, 2015: University of Minnesota-Duluth Forward Alex Iafallo (14) shoots on the power play. The University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs defeated the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers 4-1 in the semi-final of the NCAA Division 1 Men's Northeast Regional at Verizon Wireless Arena in Manchester, NH.

Harvard vs Minnesota-Duluth

It is no secret that these two teams were among the best in the nation this year. Harvard had NCAA’s most potent offense, scoring 4.14 goals per game, while ranking fourth in goals allowed, surrendering 2.14 per match. The Bulldogs of UMD were not far behind in either category, ranking eighth in goals for at 3.40/game, and ninth in goals allowed, surrendering 2.27/game. Although both teams have been very strong on the man advantage (Harvard – 25.9%, UMD – 20%), they were also both suspect in killing penalties (Harvard – 82.6%, UMD – 81%), neither finishing in the top 30 nationwide. Neither team has a marked size advantage over the other.

Goalies

Both teams have strong NCAA netminders, with Harvard’s Merrick Madsen also qualifying as a legit pro prospect, having been drafted in 2013 by Philadelphia. His counterpart, Hunter Miska, was overlooked in his draft eligible year in the USNTDP, where he was third stringer behind Vancouver prospect Thatcher Demko and Michigan State’s Edwin Minney. While Madsen gets the edge here as a prospect, the difference between he and Miska is marginal. Both have been workhorses for their respective teams, and should be expected to provide impressive work between the pipes on Thursday.

Defense

Looking at the blueliners set to face off in this game, Harvard’s edge gets a boost. UMD’s most prominent defenseman, Carson Soucy, has been out for close to one month and his availability for the Frozen Four is still in question as of this writing. If he gets the green light, and is truly back at close to 100%, he would go a great way for the Bulldogs as his combination of size, hockey IQ and two-way is rare at this level. Without Soucy, the UMD blueline will be led by senior Willie Raskob and sophomore Neal Pionk, the latter of whom has been under watch by scouts all season due to his plus puck movement capabilities. He was one of the leading scorers among defensemen in college hockey this year. That said, the number one blueline contributor to offense in the nation is lining up on the other side of the ice in this game.

Harvard freshman Adam Fox finished his year with 39 points in 34 games, despite taking some time off to help the American U20 squad win the gold medal at the WJC. Fox is a fantastic puck player and the Calgary draft pick is a top prospect by any measure. The Harvard backline is pretty deep with NHL-caliber prospects. Fellow freshman John Marino is an Edmonton draft pick and big Wiley Sherman was drafted by Boston. Both teams receive plenty of contributions from their defensemen, but if Soucy is hurt or too much below his full capability, Harvard will have a decided advantage.

Forwards

Both teams have two good collegiate scoring lines, with a pretty sizeable dropoff in the bottom six. For UMD, the offensive leader is Alex Iafallo, a senior who has nearly doubled his previous season high this year. Scouts will be looking at him as well as Neal Pionk for potential ELCs. The other big names among their forwards are Adam Johnson (onetime scoring leader in the USHL), Joseph Anderson (WJC gold medal winner and New Jersey draft pick), Dominic Toninato (power forward whose rights are controlled by the Toronto Maple Leafs), Kyle Osterberg, Karson Kuhlman, and Riley Tufte (drafted in the first round last year by Dallas). Tufte is not technically in the top six, but is worth mention, not just as a former first rounder, but as his play has picked up a lot in the second half of the year after a very slow start. They are a hard working crew, getting results without the dazzle of some other squads, but goals count the same whether they were produced through individual displays of finesse, or solid team structure and boring efficiency.

The top six for Harvard includes Tyler Moy (Nashville sixth rounder), Alexander Kerfoot (New Jersey fifth rounder), Sean Malone (Buffalo sixth rounder), Ryan Donato (Boston second rounder), Luke Esposito and Lewis Zerter-Gossage. Moy, Kerfoot, and Donato are all especially notable as plus skaters with puck handling chops. Moy, Kerfoot, Malone, and Esposito are all seniors.

Prediction

Fantastic hockey. This game should feature a lot of back and forth and many high end scoring chances for both teams, but Harvard’s advantage in speed and puck skills should allow them to win, 5-3, booking a spot in their first NCAA championship game since they won the title in 1988-89, a team which included current head coach Ted Donato (Ryan Donato’s father).

MANCHESTER, NH - MARCH 26: Notre Dame Fighting Irish right wing Anders Bjork (10) breaks away from UMass Lowell River Hawks right wing John Edwardh (29) during the NCAA Northeast Regional final between the UMass Lowell River Hawks and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on March 26, 2017, at SNHU Arena in Manchester, New Hampshire. The Fighting Irish defeated the River Hawks 3-2 (OT). (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Notre Dame vs Denver

Although the Fighting Irish entered the tournament as a fourth seed, upsetting first Minnesota and then Mass-Lowell to reach the Frozen Four, do not mistake them for a pushover here. Even before last weekend, this was a high end NCAA hockey team. They could score - finishing 13^th nationwide with 3.26 goals for per game – and defend – finishing eighth in goals against, allowing only 2.23 against per content. In truth, neither of figures reaches the heights that were managed by the Denver Pioneers, but neither falls too far short.

The top ranked Pioneers scored an additional goal every sixth game approximately, compared to Notre Dame, and allowed 0.4 goals per game less than the Irish, giving Denver the best defense in the country. Both teams were practically equal at killing penalties, but Denver has a decided advantage when playing with an extra man. UD converted on 21.74% of their power plays, a top ten figure, while Notre Dame was only 34^th, scoring on 18.02% of their power plays.

Goalies

Although Denver allowed fewer goals per game than did Notre Dame, we must take that with a grain of salt when it comes to evaluating the netminders. The reason for that is that Denver gave a lot of time in the crease to Florida prospect Evan Cowley, whose numbers dwarfed those of nominal starter Tanner Jaillet, raising the team’s overall save percentage. Cal Petersen, Notre Dame’s starter, and in this observer’s opinion, the top netminder in NCAA, played all but one period for the Irish this year, the very definition of a workhorse. Jaillet is a decent netminder, but I feel that his numbers are propped up by playing behind a dominant team with quality players at every position. While Notre Dame is not without NHL-caliber talent, Petersen has to do more on his own. And he has. His six shutouts this year are tied for the NCAA lead, while Jaillet, on the other hand, has not kept a clean sheet all year. The edge is not huge, but I give it here to Notre Dame.

Defense

Led by captain Will Butcher, Denver has one of the best blueliners in collegiate hockey playing for them. The Colorado draft, a senior who was recently nominated for the Hobey Baker award, is a dynamic puck moving defender. He is quick, with soft hands and a very nice shot from the point. Michael Davies, Adam Plant and Chicago draft pick Blake Hillman round out the top four. With the exception of Hillman, they are an undersized crew (only two of their regular six man rotation stands higher than 5-10”), but make up for that deficiency with excellent mobility.

Each of Notre Dame’s top five can contribute to the offense, including Chicago draft pick Dennis Gilbert, and Blue Jacket’s prospect Andrew Peeke. Jordan Gross will also likely attract NHL attention when he decides to end his collegiate career. They are also a much bigger unit than the crew Denver is bringing to the Frozen Four, with four of the six standing at least 6-0” tall. There is not a dynamic player like Will Butcher in the bunch, but this unit is deeper in that Denver will have to respect them all in every shift.

Forwards

Here is where I get excited. The two combatants respective top lines are both in the running for the best NCAA line. Notre Dame lines up with Hobey Baker nominee Anders Bjork, a Boston draft pick, generally skating with Montreal pick Jake Evans and Andrew Oglevie. With Denver, their top trio includes Florida first rounder Henrik Borgstrom, Team USA WJC shootout hero Troy Terry and Sharks pick Dylan Gambrell. Between Borgstrom and Bjork, it is almost a push, but the other two-thirds of Denver’s top line has more all-around dynamicism. All three of them are marvelous, NHL-level puck players. Jake Evans has impressed me with his offensive vision, but Oglevie is more along the lines of a skilled grinder.

The Irish have more talent in their depth lines, but that intrinsic advantage has not led to extrinsic results. Denver’s middle six, including players like Evan Janssen, Matt Marcinew, and Jarid Lukosevicius are all capable of dominating shifts through hard work and hockey IQ. Notre Dame’s Cam Morrison has shown occasional flashes of the skill that convinced the Colorado Avalanche to use a second round pick on him last year, but is also prone to quiet stretches. If Buffalo prospect Connor Hurley were active, that would likely tilt the scales in Notre Dame’s favor, but he has not played in months and is not expected to play this weekend.

Prediction

More fantastic hockey! Seriously, I am excited. This game will come down to which team’s second line does more. Matchups will play huge factor here. So while it may be counter-intuitive, I suspect that Notre Dame will either shut out the Pioneers 2-0, or Denver will win 3-2. Based on what I know, I will go with Denver in the latter scenario.

Championship Prediction

If the above predictions come to fruition, we will see a final of Harvard vs Denver on Saturday. In this case, I would pick the Crimson to emerge as champions, with their ability to dominate through two lines backed up by a talented blueline and high end netminder doing enough to keep Denver’s amazing top line at bay. Let’s call it 4-3 Harvard over Denver for the title.