[16-Apr-2026 04:15:58 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Class 'WP_Widget' not found in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_news_feed_widget.php:3 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_news_feed_widget.php on line 3 [16-Apr-2026 04:16:00 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Class 'WP_Widget' not found in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_sidebar_menu_widget.php:3 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/widgets/mckeens_sidebar_menu_widget.php on line 3 [16-Apr-2026 04:15:54 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_editorials.php:22 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_editorials.php on line 22 [16-Apr-2026 04:15:55 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_tabs.php:50 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_display_tabs.php on line 50 [16-Apr-2026 04:15:57 UTC] PHP Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function add_action() in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_heading.php:15 Stack trace: #0 {main} thrown in /home/mckeens/public_html/wp-content/themes/understrap-child/inc/shortcodes/mckeens_heading.php on line 15 Lukas Dostal – McKeen's Hockey https://www.mckeenshockey.com The Essential Hockey Annual Wed, 04 Feb 2026 15:12:38 +0000 en-US hourly 1 NHL: CULLEN – TOP 20 FANTASY POINTS – A Capitals rookie finding his form, the Avalanche captain back on track, Luke Evangelista, Matvei Michkov, Vladislav Gavrikov, and so much more! https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-top-20-fantasy-points-capitals-rookie-finding-form-avalanche-captain-track-luke-evangelista-matvei-michkov-vladislav-gavrikov-more/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-top-20-fantasy-points-capitals-rookie-finding-form-avalanche-captain-track-luke-evangelista-matvei-michkov-vladislav-gavrikov-more/#respond Fri, 05 Dec 2025 19:43:55 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=198010 Read More... from NHL: CULLEN – TOP 20 FANTASY POINTS – A Capitals rookie finding his form, the Avalanche captain back on track, Luke Evangelista, Matvei Michkov, Vladislav Gavrikov, and so much more!

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Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, a Capitals rookie finding his form, the Avalanche captain back on track, Luke Evangelista, Matvei Michkov, Vladislav Gavrikov, and so much more!

#1 After scoring 49 points (30 G, 19 A) in 37 games for Boston College as a sophomore last season, Ryan Leonard was signed and joined the Capitals late in the season but managed just one goal in nine regular-season games before contributing one assist in eight playoff contests. Nevertheless, the eighth pick in the 2023 Draft was considered a possible Calder Trophy candidate entering the season. He opened the season with eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 37 shots on goal while averaging 13:54 of ice time in 19 games, which was not going to keep him in the Calder Trophy race. He has picked up the pace more recently, however, tallying 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 23 shots on goal while playing 15:20 per game in his past nine games. He is getting first unit power play time, which certainly raises his offensive ceiling.

#2 When Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog returned to action during last season’s playoffs, it was a feel-good story since it was his first NHL action since 2022, but it was also fair to wonder how much he could contribute this season as he is now 33 and coming back from a serious injury. He started this season slowly, with zero goals, four assists, and 22 shots on goal through 16 games. He has found his footing since then, though, putting up 10 points (5 G, 5 A) with 26 shots on goal in his past 11 games. He is skating with Brock Nelson and Ross Colton on Colorado’s second line and is getting top power play time, so Landeskog may be a good bet to produce at a high level for the rest of the season.

#3 As the Nashville Predators look for reasons to be optimistic, right winger Luke Evangelista is starting to become a factor offensively. In his past six games, Evangelista has eight points (2 G, 6 A) and a dozen shots on goal while averaging 17:39 of ice time per game. He had a career-high 39 points (16 G, 23 A) in 2023-2024, but with 18 points (4 G, 14 A) in 26 games this season, he’s on pace to soar past that total. Evangelista is skating on Nashville’s top line, with veterans Ryan O’Reilly and Steven Stamkos.

#4 After scoring 63 points (26 G, 37 A) in 80 games and finishing fourth in Calder Trophy voting last season, Philadelphia Flyers winger Matvei Michkov entered his second season with lofty expectations. It didn’t start out very well, as head coach Rick Tocchet acknowledged Michkov’s poor physical conditioning early in the season when he had just three points (1 G, 2 A) and 17 shots on goal in his first nine games. The tide may be turning for him, though, as Michkov has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past five games.

#5 A big free agent addition in the offseason for the New York Rangers, defenceman Vladislav Gavrikov is not necessarily known as a big point producer, with 33 points in 2021-2022, when he played for Columbus, counting as his career high, but he has been cooking lately. In his past seven games, Gavrikov has seven points (4 G, 3 A), seven shots on goal, and is averaging 25:35 of ice time per game. With Adam Fox injured, the Blueshirts will need Gavrikov to fill a big role at the top of their defensive depth chart.

#6 Buffalo Sabres winger Josh Doan put up 19 points (7 G, 12 A) with 88 shots on goal in 51 games as a rookie for Utah last season but has taken on a more substantial role with the Sabres in 2025-2026. In his past seven games, Doan has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 20 shots on goal and while, like many Sabres wingers, he moves around the lineup, he is getting time on PP1. Six of Doan’s 19 points (8 G, 11 A) in 27 games this season have come via the man advantage.

#7 In his prime, Dallas Stars captain Jamie Benn was a fantasy hockey star, producing points and hits like few others. He’s now 36 and plays a supporting role in Dallas, but he’s been awfully effective even with limited ice time. Benn suffered a collapsed lung in the preseason, so he was not ready to play at the start of this season, but in nine games, he has eight points (3 G, 5 A) with 11 shots on goal while playing just 12:50 per game. That ice time is starting to tick up – 15:40 per game in the past three – and with Tyler Seguin out with a torn ACL, there may be a greater need for Benn to fill a role in Dallas’ top six, at least until Matt Duchene is healthy.

#8 With the Nashville Predators showing signs of life, maybe centre Ryan O’Reilly won’t hear his name in trade rumours quite so often. The 34-year-old pivot is a valuable player and one that contenders seek out, but he has been doing his part to help the Preds. In his past five games, O’Reilly has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and six shots on goal. That shot rate is obviously too low, but O‘Reilly is averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game in that stretch.

#9 Centre Elias Lindholm may not be exactly what the Boston Bruins hoped he would be when they signed him as a free agent in the summer of 2024, but he has also picked up seven assists in his past four games, giving him 16 points (4 G, 12 A) in 19 games this season. It’s not all gold for Lindholm right now, though, as he’s rocking a 44.0 percent Corsi percentage and, for a player with a strong two-way reputation, that’s not good enough.

#10 A solid secondary scoring option for the Toronto Maple Leafs, left winger Bobby McMann has delivered six points (3 G, 3 A) with seven shots on goal in his past three games. McMann scored 20 goal and 34 points last season and, with eight goals and 14 points in 27 games this season, he’s on pace for more. He does move around the lineup and there is a ceiling on his offensive production because he doesn’t always have a reliable power play role.

#11 Former Maple Leafs prospect Alex Steeves is starting to make his mark for the Boston Bruins. Steeves, a 25-year-old rookie, started the season in the AHL with has earned chance with the Bruins and is making the most of it. In his past five games, Steeves has six points (5 G, 1 A) with 10 shots on goal while averaging 15:36 of ice time per game. With David Pastrnak injured, Steeves is skating on Boston’s top line with Lindholm and Morgan Geekie and getting second unit power play time.

#12 Florida Panthers left winger A.J. Greer contributed 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in 81 games last season, skating on the Panthers’ fourth line. He also had a career-high 130 penalty minutes, which fit with his style of play. While his style has not changed, injuries in Florida have provided Greer with more opportunities and he is starting to take advantage of them. In his past five games, Greer has averaged 15:47 of ice time per game while producing five points (2 G, 3 A) with 15 shots on goal. He has been skating on a line with Sam Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe and is showing that he may be able to legitimately fit in the top nine.

#13 Toronto Maple Leafs veteran Max Domi had a miserable start to this season, with six points (3 G, 3 A) and 36 shots on goal in his first 23 games. He has, however, picked up five assists in the past three games and is skating at right wing on the top line with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies. So long as he’s in that spot, there is a chance for Domi to salvage this campaign.

#14 Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Darren Raddysh has turned into an offensive force on the blueline since injuries thrust him into a big role, including as the quarterback on PP1. In his past 10 games, Raddysh has averaged more than 24 minutes per game, putting up 15 points (2 G, 13 A) with 25 shots on goal. Not bad for a guy who couldn’t count on a regular spot in the lineup before injuries decimated the Tampa Bay blueline.

#15 Vancouver Canucks superstar defenceman Quinn Hughes has slumped recently, with a modest two points (1 G, 1 A) in his past six games, a stretch in which the Canucks have managed just one win. Hughes had 13 assists in the previous six games, so there is some regression in real time happening here, and there is no reason to move Hughes unless there is a long-term reason that his production should stay down. As of now, it’s probably wise to stay invested in one of four defencemen in the league scoring at least a point per game. (Cale Makar, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Zach Werenski are the others.)

#16 Having won back-to-back Vezina Trophies as the league’s top goaltender, an injury to Winnipeg Jets netminder Connor Hellebuyck is naturally a big deal. Even if his numbers aren’t quite as strong this season, it’s not like a .913 save percentage in 14 starts was a problem for the Jets, but now Hellebuyck is out for four-to-six weeks after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery. That leaves journeyman Eric Comrie to fill the starter’s role in Hellebuyck’s absence, and Comrie has a .897 save percentage in 11 starts.

#17 The Anaheim Ducks are in a tough goaltending spot, as Lukas Dostal is out with an upper-body injury for two-to-three weeks, and Petr Mrazek is facing a similar timeline with a lower-body injury, leaving Ville Husso as the de facto starter for the Ducks. Husso has appeared in four games this season, posting a .859 save percentage, which is obviously not good enough, but he does have a .901 save percentage for his career, so there is some reason to hope that he can be an adequate option for the next few weeks.

#18 Veteran New York Islanders right winger Kyle Palmieri suffered a torn ACL, ending his season. On the play that it occurred, Palmieri even managed to get an assist, stealing the puck from Flyers defenceman Emil Andrae on his way to the bench, giving it to Jonathan Drouin, who set up Emil Heineman for a goal. Palmieri finished his season with 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 25 games and with Palmieri out, rookie Max Shabanov moves up to the Islanders’ top line. Shabanov has nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 24 shots on goal through his first 16 NHL games.

#19 Philadelphia Flyers left winger Tyson Foerster will be out for two to three months with an upper-body injury, halting his rising momentum. In his last seven games before he was injured, Foerster scored six goals and had 15 shots on goal. His absence does create more room in the Flyers’ top six for winger Owen Tippett, who is heating up with 12 points (4 G, 8 A) and 24 shots on goal in his past 10 games.

#20 St. Louis Blues rookie right winger Jimmy Snuggerud is going to be re-evaluated in six weeks after suffering a broken wrist. Prior to injury, he had been slumping, managing zero points and nine shots on goal in his last seven games. Aleksanteri Kaskimaki, a third-round pick in 2022, has been called up to the Blues and is getting a shot in their top nine after he managed seven points (3 G, 4 A) in 16 AHL games.

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MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – ANAHEIM DUCKS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2025-26-nhl-yearbook-st-louis-blues-team-preview-3/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2025-26-nhl-yearbook-st-louis-blues-team-preview-3/#respond Mon, 06 Oct 2025 17:20:41 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=195648 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – ANAHEIM DUCKS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

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LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 24: Anaheim Ducks Defenceman Jackson LaCombe (60) warms up before a game between the Anaheim Ducks and the Los Angeles Kings on February 24, 2024 at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire)

It was an unexpected rise out of the depths of the Pacific Division last season as they improved to 80 points in 2024-2025 up from 59 in 2023-2024. Their overall improvement got them into the race for the wild card for the first time in years, yet ultimately still led to the dismissal of coach Greg Cronin. Now with the controversial hiring of Joel Quenneville behind the bench, expectations are much higher. If they’re going to be serious about making the playoffs, their special teams must improve. The Ducks had the league’s worst power play (11.8 percent) and the 29th ranked penalty kill (74.2 percent), but with the talent they have that can change quickly.

What’s Changed?

Despite the improvements, there’s a lot of change in Anaheim. Along with Quenneville taking over as coach, years of trade rumours finally proved out with goalie John Gibson going to Detroit for Petr Mrazek and forward Trevor Zegras off to Philadelphia for Ryan Poehling. The Ducks also added veteran forward Chris Kreider from the New York Rangers for prospect Carey Terrance and signed free agent Mikael Granlund to a three-year, $21 million contract. That kind of infusion of veteran talent signals the rebuild is officially over in Anaheim and that reaching the postseason is the goal.

What Would Success Look Like?

The Ducks haven’t been to the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2018 and after picking in the top 10 of the NHL Draft for the past few years, drafting and developing young talent, reaching the postseason, or at the very least being in the hunt until the end of the season, is the goal. The Western Conference is difficult, but there are inroads to be made. While Anaheim’s forward group was made to be more battle-tested and experienced, their defence is highly talented but still young. If the growth seen from Jackson LaCombe, Olen Zellweger, Pavel Mintyukov, and Drew Helleson continue and goalie Lukas Dostal picks up where he left off last season, they can be one of the more entertaining and frustrating teams to play against.

What Could Go Wrong?

The catch with adding veteran players is that sometimes they’re closer to the end of the road than they’re perceived to be. If Kreider’s downturn in production last season was a signal and not a blip and Granlund can’t have the same success he had with San Jose and Dallas, it’ll make things a lot more difficult up front. Their young defence corps and goaltender are going to have a lot of pressure on them right away and if the weight of expectations is too heavy, that could send the Ducks back to the lottery yet again.

Top Breakout Candidate

Cutter Gauthier’s rookie season saw him put up 20 goals and 24 assists and that was enough to put him on the NHL All-Rookie Team. You could say that it's a breakout on its own, but when you’re taken with the fifth pick in the 2022 draft, expectations are set a fair bit higher, especially after being acquired in a trade. With a full season under his belt, Gauthier getting to learn some tricks of the trade from Kreider and having the green light to go from the new coaching staff, that could lead to a monster season and more reasons for Flyers fans to grump about losing him.

FORWARDS

Troy Terry

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
78 19 31 50 0.64

A consistent performer who has recorded more than 20 goals and 50 points in each of the past four seasons, Terry erupted for 37 goals in 2021-2022, but that appears to have been an aberration because he scored on 19.2 percent of his shots that season and more typically hovers in the 11-12 percent range. Terry plays a solid two-way game, though he is more effective offensively, and his reliability makes him valuable on a team with promising young talent still trying to find its way. Last season, Terry’s most common linemates were Ryan Strome and Frank Vatrano, so that is obviously a veteran trio, but Terry has the skill to play on Anaheim’s top line and it’s getting to the point that he could be alongside their younger forwards. Terry is a competitive enough player but does not play a physical game. In the past four seasons, he has recorded a total of 42 hits, which is a shockingly low total, ranking 245th out of 246 forwards to appear in at least 250 games over that span. One of Terry’s strongest traits is his confidence with the puck which allows him to make creative plays to generate scoring chances, particularly when controlling play in the offensive zone. There is potential for Terry to break through offensively, but the most reasonable expectation would be for 20-plus goals and 55-60 points.

Mason McTavish

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 26 38 64 0.78

After hitting career highs with 22 goals and 52 points in 2024-2025, McTavish is a promising young player who can be a leader in Anaheim’s attack. He was the third pick in the 2021 Draft and is a physically strong player who can win board battles and create space in the offensive zone. He has a strong skating stride that helps him move through the neutral zone in transition. McTavish is still early in his career and like many of his young teammates has room to improve without the puck. Even though the Ducks outscored opponents 52-43 during five-on-five play with McTavish on the ice last season, a lot of that was due to favorable percentages – an 11.1 percent on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage of .924 – because the Ducks only controlled 45.3 percent of shot attempts and 45.9 percent of expected goals with McTavish on the ice. His most common linemates last season were Cutter Gauthier and Robby Fabbri but, as the Ducks roster improves, there could be a chance for McTavish to get a bit of an upgrade on the wings. He also plays on the power play, where he can launch one-timers from the right face-off circle. All of this is to suggest that McTavish should continue his offensive development in 2025-2026 and should be expected to surpass 20 goals and 50 points but he is in the age bracket in which he could have a breakout season and take those totals to a new level.

Leo Carlsson

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
79 24 37 61 0.77

A two-way center with great potential, Carlsson was the second pick in the 2023 Draft and has made steady progress in his first two seasons. He elevated his play in the second half of last season, putting up 29 points (11 G, 18 A) in his last 31 games. He is still young, and his game is evolving, but Carlsson’s size, strong skating, and quality defensive play give him a strong foundation upon which to build his game and if he can become a point-per-game player at some point, then he will be an extremely valuable player. His soft hands and growing confidence should make Carlsson the focal point of the Ducks attack but, this early in his career, he has room to improve. For instance, he has won 38.5 percent of his faceoffs through his first two seasons and while that improved from 34.8 percent as a rookie to 41.4 percent last season, he needs to be much more effective on the dot. That improvement should come, however. Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier started to find their footing alongside Alex Killorn last season and progress should continue in 2025-2026. Carlsson should be expected to score 20-plus goals and 50 points but, like Gauthier, it’s possible that Carlsson breaks through for even more in his third NHL season.

Chris Kreider

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
77 19 17 36 0.47

Following the three most productive goal-scoring campaigns of his career, Kreider’s production fell off in 2024-2025. He still scored more than 20 goals for the seventh straight season and 10th time in his career, but he also did not record an assist until his 22nd game of the season and finished with just eight helpers. Kreider missed 14 games, and his ice time was down to 16:45 per game, his lowest since 2017-2018. While there had been rumours that the Rangers were looking to move Kreider last summer, they were certainly ready to move on from him this offseason, and he was a decent buy-low option for Anaheim. Even if his production slipped last season, and he was a poor puck possession player for essentially the first time in his career, Kreider is still a big strong winger who can skate and use his body as an effective net-front presence on the power play. Fantasy managers will note that Kreider managed 79 hits last season, his lowest since recording 36 hits in 23 games when he first joined the Rangers in 2012-2013.  It’s not unreasonable to believe that Kreider can deliver more than he did last season in New York, but he’s also a 34-year-old winger who has played a physical game throughout his career, so there is a ceiling to what should be expected of him. He could score 25 goals and 45 points, which would be a valuable contribution to a Ducks squad that is hoping to be more competitive this season.

Mikael Granlund

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
76 17 39 56 0.74

Although Granlund’s underlying numbers were nothing to write home about in a 2024-2025 season that he split between the San Jose Sharks and Dallas Stars, he also finished the season with 66 points (22 G, 44 A), his highest total since 2017-2018. Last season was decidedly different for Granlund based on which team he was skating with. When he was on the Sharks, he played more than 20 minutes per game and was a top line point producer and first unit power play fixture. After his trade to Dallas, Granlund was still a contributor, but his ice time dropped by more than three minutes per game and he was not a prime power play threat. With Anaheim, Granlund should have the opportunity to again play a significant role, and he has the ability to play center and wing, which will give the Ducks some flexibility when it comes to setting their lines. Granlund’s defensive play is not his strong suit but with the puck on his stick he is a creative player with excellent vision and that should allow him to facilitate offense for his linemates. With the expectation that Granlund is not likely to play as much in Anaheim as he did in San Jose last season, it is probably more reasonable to expect 50-55 points from the veteran forward.

Cutter Gauthier

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 33 27 60 0.73

It took some time for Gauthier to get going in his rookie season, not finding the net until his 16th game, but he turned into a bona fide threat down the stretch, tallying 22 points (11 G, 11 A) with 77 shots on goal in 28 games after the Four Nations Face-Off break. He finished with 15 goals during 5-on-5 play to lead the Ducks. Gauthier has good size, which he uses to effectively protect the puck, and he is excellent in transition, with a strong stride and quick release when bursting down the left wing. In his first season, Gauthier’s most common linemates were Mason McTavish and Robby Fabbri, but he found more success skating with Leo Carlsson and Alex Killorn. For all of his promise Gauthier is still a young player and there is naturally room for him to improve as he grows into the pro game. He can be more consistent without the puck, and it’s possible – maybe even expected – that he will have a more significant role on the power play in his second season. He should play more than the 14:09 per game that he did as a rookie and that would provide him with the opportunity to generate more offense, so 25 goals and 50 points in a fair starting point, but he does have potential to score more than that.

Frank Vatrano

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 18 19 37 0.45

A veteran winger who has been a consistent shot generator throughout his career, Vatrano busted out for a career-high 37 goals during the 2023-2024 season and has recorded more than 18 goals in six of his past seven seasons. He has a quick release and is both quick and efficient at putting shots on goal from a variety of spots. The sturdy skater recorded a career-high 169 hits last season and has played a more prominent role in Anaheim compared to previous stops with the New York Rangers, Florida Panthers, and Boston Bruins. Although he has proven to be a solid complementary scorer, the unfortunate part is that Vatrano is not very effective defensively and the Ducks have been outscored 179-131 during five-on-five play across the past three seasons with Vatrano on the ice. Vatrano plays primarily with Ryan Strome and Troy Terry, a veteran trio on this young squad. Despite his flaws, considering his prominent role, Vatrano does hold appeal for fantasy managers because his combination of goal-scoring, shot generation, and hits tends to make him relatively useful. His power play role was reduced last season, and it seems likely that he will remain in a secondary offensive role on this team, but he should be able to produce at least 20 goals and 45 points during the 2025-2026 season.

Ryan Strome

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
76 8 27 35 0.46

Having just completed his third straight 41-point season, Strome also scored just 10 goals, his fewest since the 2015-2016 season. He plays center but can slide to right wing if need be, and his experience and talent allow him to move up and down the lineup depending on what the Ducks need. Like many Ducks, he could stand to improve his defensive play, but after three seasons in Anaheim, during which they have been outscored 174-133 during five-on-five play with Strome on the ice, that is not the most likely scenario. He also struggled on the power play, so the value proposition for the Ducks may be to improve their team depth so that they don’t need to lean on Strome quite so much. He took more than 1,200 faceoffs last season, winning just 41.7 percent, which is a shockingly poor percentage for someone who takes that many draws. There were 53 players who took at least 1,000 draws last season and Strome ranked 52nd in faceoff winning percentage. That should be at least part of the reason that he might spend more time on the wing, depending on who else is available to fill those minutes down the middle of the ice. Considering that he has landed on exactly 41 points for three consecutive seasons, that’s a pretty fair expectation for Strome’s production in the 2025-2026 season.

Alex Killorn

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 18 22 40 0.49

A consistent and hard-working veteran winger, Killorn has been a strong secondary scorer for a long time, first in Tampa Bay and now Anaheim, but last season’s 37 points in 82 games represented the second lowest points per game rate (0.45) of his career. That is not to say that Killorn’s game has dramatically dropped off, because it hasn’t, but he was 35 years old last season and anyone whose age climbs beyond that is obviously getting closer to the end of their career. Nevertheless, Killorn was the only Ducks forward to finish above 50 percent in terms of Corsi and expected goals and his steady two-way play was undeniably helpful to a team still trying to find its way. Killorn remains an excellent penalty killer and ranked second among Ducks forwards in time on ice during four-on-five situations. While he ranked sixth among Ducks forwards in five-on-four ice time, Killorn was not nearly as effective with the man advantage. Among 10 Ducks players to play at least 100 minutes at five-on-four, Killorn ranked last in on-ice expected goals per 60 minutes and ninth in on-ice goals for per 60 minutes. It would come as no surprise if Ducks newcomers like Chris Kreider or Mikael Granlund see more power play time and that aspect of the game gets reduced for Killorn. Even so, given his consistency and ability to drive play, there is a path to Killorn putting up close to 20 goals and 40 points in 2025-2026.

DEFENSE

Jackson LaCombe

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
81 12 33 45 0.56

One of last season’s breakout stars, LaCombe was a second-round pick in 2019, and he turned into a No. 1 defenceman in his second NHL season.  Lacombe shows outstanding poise with the puck, both retrieving it in the defensive zone and running the point on the Ducks’ power play. It’s not like LaCombe was gifted a prominent role on the Anaheim blueline last season, so it took some time before he hit his stride. From December 1 through April 1, however, LaCombe contributed 39 points (12 G, 27 A) in 51 games before going scoreless in his last eight games of the season. He is excellent at getting pucks on net from the point, especially on the power play. Out of 55 defencemen that played at least 100 five-on-four minutes, LaCombe ranked sixth with 11.11 shots on goal per 60 minutes. LaCombe’s emergence ought to ease the pressure on the other young defenders in Anaheim because his production already makes him a worthy No. 1 option on the blueline and the rest can continue to develop without feeling that pressure. From LaCombe’s perspective, it will be up to him to prove that his breakthrough season wasn’t a fluke, that he is capable of playing big minutes and generating offense for an improving Ducks squad. It may be optimistic to expect LaCombe to score on more than 10 percent of his shots again, but he should at least be able to put up 40 points and, like many of his young teammates, there is certainly a chance that he goes above and beyond.

Olen Zellweger

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
77 9 19 28 0.36

An undersized puck-moving blueliner, Zellweger established his place as an NHL regular last season and while there is naturally room for improvement, he showed plenty of potential in his age 21 season. Zellweger has excellent agility which serves him well in the offensive zone, allowing him to move along the blueline and generate offensive opportunities. He has been wildly productive in previous stops. In his last two WHL seasons, he put up 158 points (46 G, 112 A) in 110 games, capped off by 29 points (11 G, 18 A) in 14 playoff games during his final season. He then contributed 37 points (12 G, 25 A) in 44 games as an AHL rookie in 2023-2024. While Zellweger has delivered just 29 points in 88 NHL games thus far, his pedigree is such that he has untapped offensive potential, and it is going to be dependent on his role and the quality of the team around him to determine if he is going to be an offensive threat at this level. He did lead Ducks defenders in shot attempts per 60 minutes and shots on goal per 60 minutes last season, so he’s not afraid to send pucks to the opposing net. While he does have potential to turn into a strong point producer, Zellweger is still quite young and more likely to fill a supporting role on the Ducks blueline, so he may contribute 25-30 points next season and like many Ducks, he is young enough that there is potential for more under the right circumstances. His name has popped up in trade rumours this summer, so that could affect his deployment if he lands with a new team.

Jacob Trouba

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
75 3 16 19 0.25

After spending much of last summer shopping Trouba around the league and practically blaming him for the Rangers getting ousted from the 2024 playoffs, only to have Trouba exercise his no-move clause, the Rangers finally got what they wanted when they traded Trouba to Anaheim in December. He did not thrive under those circumstances, and it’s fair to wonder if a hard-hitting defenceman like Trouba was maybe a little less invested in playing for a team with little hope of making the playoffs. He ended up averaging a career-low 20:31 of ice time per game and did record a career-high 208 blocked shots, though his 164 hits in 77 games counted as his lowest hits-per-game average since 2018-2019, his last season in Winnipeg. It’s also fair to wonder if Trouba’s physical style of play is starting to take its toll, as his possession numbers have slipped in the past two seasons and now that he’s 31, it could be more difficult for him to get back on top of those numbers. At his best, Trouba is a solid puck mover who is one of the most feared hitters in the league. He’s a legitimately punishing physical presence and should have a better impact with the Ducks likely to be an improved team this season. He may contribute 25-30 points but will add hits, blocked shots, and penalty minutes that should make him notably more valuable in banger-style leagues.

Radko Gudas

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
78 1 13 14 0.18

The Ducks’ captain is a thundering hitter who has spent his entire career walking a fine line between what is and isn’t suspendable when it comes to hits. Part of the equation is that he just has such a high volume of hits that he has more opportunity to deliver objectionable checks. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Gudas has recorded 1,160 hits, tops in the NHL. That is 67 hits ahead of Luke Schenn and Schenn is the only other defenceman within 175 hits of Gudas’ total. Having acknowledged his questionable hitting history, it should be noted, loudly, that Gudas is a very effective player and his borderline hitting practices should not take away from that legitimate on-ice success. Across his past seven seasons, with four different franchises, Gudas has been on the ice for 41 more goals for than against during five-on-five play, which is remarkable for a defender who does not generate a lot of offense and tends to start more of his shifts in the defensive zone. Gudas played a career-high 19:52 per game last season and that’s probably around the high end of how much he should play. A quirk to his game is that Gudas is also uninhibited when it comes to launching shots from the blueline. There are 184 defencemen that have played at least 2,000 five-on-five minutes across the past three seasons and Gudas ranks 47th with 11.75 shot attempts per 60 minutes over that span, just behind Mikhail Sergachev and ahead of the likes of Devon Toews, Luke Hughes, and Jake Sanderson. Despite his eagerness to shoot the puck, Gudas should only be expected to contribute 15-20 points, but he should also put up 250-plus hits 150-plus blocked shots and more than 80 penalty minutes, so he doesn’t help offensively, but the peripheral categories are where he shines for fantasy managers.

GOAL

Lukas Dostal

Predicted Stats
GP W L OT SO SV% GAA
53 26 19 6 3 .905 2.78

For the first time since 2013, the Anaheim Ducks will start their season without John Gibson factoring into their goaltending plans for the upcoming year. It feels like a breath of fresh air for both parties, but perhaps for none more than for newly minted star starter Lukas Dostal. The Czech-born goaltender has officially been given Anaheim's vote of confidence this summer, as they brought in a veteran backup in Petr Mrazek and a reclamation project in Ville Husso as the only really challengers to his gig heading into the 2025-26 campaign.

The move doesn't come unwarranted, of course. Dostal has been proving for the last handful of seasons that his particular brand of competency, which combined the positional acuity of Gibson before him with an extra little flash of speed and skating prowess, is more than enough to pull Anaheim out of their free-fall into rebuild territory. The Southern California former powerhouse finished just two games shy of hitting .500 on the season, pulling themselves up from the bottom two in their division for the first time since before the pandemic. That was due largely to Dostal, who finished with above-league average goals saved metrics on a tough team despite shouldering his first real starting workload. With Calle Clang eagerly waiting in the wings, Anaheim would be smart to control Dostal's starts, keeping him to just over half the games played for the year when they're clearly not ready to contend. But for a team that's been scrambling in net this long, that might feel hard to do - so it will be hard to blame Anaheim if they get excited and ride Dostal's performances to a position where, while still unlikely to contend for the cup, the Ducks could at the very least make life difficult for the others in the Wild Card race.

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NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Vilardi heating up, Kakko on the move, and much more! https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-vilardi-heating-up-kakko-move-more/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-vilardi-heating-up-kakko-move-more/#respond Sat, 21 Dec 2024 00:53:01 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=191295 Read More... from NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Vilardi heating up, Kakko on the move, and much more!

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LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 13: Winnipeg Jets center Gabriel Vilardi (13) celebrates his goal during an NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on December 13, 2023 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Gabriel Vilardi is hot, Pavel Buchnevich is thriving on the wing, Kirill Marchenko leads the surprising Blue Jackets, a fresh start for Kaapo Kakko, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Winnipeg Jets right-winger Gabriel Vilardi is heating up. The 25-year-old forward has tallied 11 points (5 G, 6 A) with 16 shots on goal while averaging 19:26 of ice time per game in his past eight games. He is in a great spot, skating on the Jets’ top line with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, as well as playing on the top power-play unit. Injuries have been a significant factor in Vilardi’s career, and he has never played more than 63 games in a season, so it is surprising that he has played in all 34 games for the Jets thus far. Vilardi has 28 points already, so if he remains healthy, he should surpass his career high of 41 points set in 2022-2023.

#2 The St. Louis Blues tried to shift Pavel Buchnevich to centre at the start of the season, confident that his all-around game would fit in that role, and it did not bring out the best in the veteran forward. He has been returned to the wing and in 10 games since Jim Montgomery took over behind the Blues bench, Buchnevich has contributed nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 27 shots on goal and has most recently found himself skating on a line with Jake Neighbours and Robert Thomas.

#3 The leading scorer for the Columbus Blue Jackets this season, with 33 points (11 G, 22 A) in 33 games, is third-year right winger Kirill Marchenko. In his past 15 games, he has 17 points (5 G, 12 A) and 46 shots on goal. He plays 18 minutes per game, consistently generates shots and has a good thing going on Columbus’ top line with Dmitri Voronkov and Sean Monahan.

#4 With just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 30 games for the New York Rangers, right winger Kaapo Kakko was traded to the Seattle Kraken, an opportunity for a fresh start for the second pick in the 2019 Draft. Kakko, 23, had career highs of 18 goals and 40 points during the 2022-2023 season but has not been able to generate enough offense to meet expectations. While Kakko’s puck possession numbers aren’t great this season, it has typically been a strength of his, so he should be able to hold a regular spot in the Kraken lineup. In his first game for Seattle, Kakko skated on a line with Jared McCann and Matty Beniers, which would be a decent spot for him to find his offensive game.

#5 With the Edmonton Oilers scoring at a high rate, ranking second in the league over the past month, there are secondary sources of offense available on this squad. One worth considering is defenceman Darnell Nurse, who has five assists and 14 shots on goal in his past six games. Nurse has 15 points (3 G, 12 A) in 29 games, with just one point on the power play, but he has been this productive despite an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.1 percent during five-on-five play. That mark should go up, so it would be a reasonable expectation for Nurse to score at least a half-point per game for the rest of the season. For a player who delivers hits and blocked shots as well, Nurse has value in most fantasy formats.

#6 Colorado Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen has thrived with the Avs, where his hard-working industrious style of play complements Colorado’s highly skilled top players. In his past 11 games, Lehkonen has nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 25 shots on goal while averaging more than 22 minutes of ice time per game. He skates on Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, which is obviously a prime position for Lehkonen to continue delivering offensive production.

#7 After a slow start to the season, veteran Utah Hockey Club right winger Nick Schmaltz has started to break out of his slump, scoring at a more typical rate. Through his first 19 games of the season, Schmaltz had zero goals and 13 assists with 38 shots on goal. In a dozen games since then, he has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) with 30 shots on goal. As a key player on Utah’s top line and first power play unit, Schmaltz tends to be a reliable scoring threat and appears to be back on track.

#8 As the Buffalo Sabres are watching their season go down the drain, defenceman Owen Power has quietly been very productive. While Power has 20 points (4 G, 16 A) in 32 games, it’s notable that all 20 points have come at even strength, which puts him third in even-strength scoring among defencemen, behind only Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. Power’s offensive ceiling would seem to be limited in Buffalo, where Rasmus Dahlin (currently injured) and Bowen Byram have power play priority, but the towering defender is already productive at 22 years old.

#9 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry has become a consistently productive scorer in recent seasons, even if it sometimes gets overlooked because of where he plays. In his past 11 games, Terry has put up 13 points (3 G, 10 A) with 37 shots on goal while averaging 19:53 of ice time per game. On a Ducks team trying to build around young players, Terry is skating on a line with Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome on Anaheim’s No. 1 line.

#10 The Anaheim Ducks shuffled the deck on their blueline, dealing veteran defenceman Cam Fowler to the St. Louis Blues and part of the reason for the change was to give younger defencemen the opportunity to step into bigger roles. Second-year blueliner Jackson LaCombe is making the most of his chances and, in December, has suddenly produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal in seven games. He is playing nearly 20 minutes per game in that time and is getting first-unit power play time, which makes him a legitimate option for fantasy managers.

#11 Nashville Predators defenceman Roman Josi has been battling a lower-body injury and has landed on the injured list. With Josi out, Brady Skjei takes over as the quarterback on the Nashville power play. Skjei has failed to record a point in each of his past nine games, despite playing nearly 23 minutes per game, leaving him with nine points (2 G, 7 A) in 32 games. That is a long way off the pace that Skjei set in Carolina over the previous three seasons when he produced 124 points (40 G, 84 A) in 243 games for the Hurricanes.

#12 Another former Hurricane, winger Teuvo Teravainen started slowly upon his return to Chicago, managing eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his first 18 games, with half of those goals and points coming in the third game of the season. Since then, Teravainen has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 15 games and he is skating on Chicago’s third line, alongside Jason Dickinson and Ilya Mikheyev.

#13 It would be too soon to recommend Oilers right winger Connor Brown in anything but the deepest of leagues, but he is worth keeping an eye on because the Oilers are not getting consistent production from their wingers and Brown did contribute more offensively before joining the Oilers last season. Brown managed just a dozen points (4 G, 8 A) in 71 games for Edmonton last season, but is up to 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 32 games this season after producing eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past 11 games.

#14 Red Winger centre J.T. Compher has contributed a point per game (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games, a sudden increase in his offensive output. While his ice time is down by 2:33 per game compared to last season, Compher is still getting first-unit power play time in addition to his time at centre on Detroit’s third line. As a player who had 48 and 52 points, respectively, in the previous two seasons, Compher is behind his previous scoring pace, but if he remains productive, his ice time will likely climb.

#15 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a consistent contributor but has elevated his level of play in the past month. In 14 games, he has 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 30 shots on goal. Bjorkstrand gets first unit power play time for the Kraken, but only five of his 23 points this season have come with the man advantage. The recent uptick in his production has come at even strength, where he has more recently been playing with Shane Wright and Eeli Tolvanen. Bjorkstrand tallied a career-high 59 points (20 G, 39 A) last season, with 25 points on the power play, so that would seem to be an area that still has room for further improvement.

#16 Vegas Golden Knights winger Ivan Barbashev has been sidelined with an upper-body injury and it’s worth pointing out what a big hole that leaves in the lineup. Barbarshev has 26 points during five-on-five play and Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov is the only player in the league with more points during five-on-five play. Certainly, playing with Jack Eichel is a big part of Barbashev’s success, and Pavel Dorofeyev has joined Eichel and Stone on Vegas’ top line with Barbashev out of the lineup. Dorofeyev played 19:31 in Thursday’s win against Vancouver, the second-highest ice time of his career.

#17 As the Pittsburgh Penguins may be turning around a season that looked hopelessly lost, defenceman Matt Grzelcyk has turned into a solid contributor, putting up nine points (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games. Eight of Grzelcyk’s 17 points this season have come on the power play and the Penguins are running a rare power play with two defencemen on the top unit and it’s been Grzelcyk and Kris Letang in those roles, with Erik Karlsson on PP2.

#18 There are ups and downs along the path for Montreal Canadiens goaltender Samuel Montembeault, who has had nine games this season in which he has allowed at least four goals, but he has a .914 save percentage to go along with a 4-3 record in seven starts this month. He has 7.73 Goals Saved Above Expected this season, which ranks eighth in the league, ahead of Igor Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, and Jacob Markstrom. Wins might not come so easily for the Canadiens goaltender, but his performance thus far makes him a legitimate fantasy option and it backs up Team Canada’s choice to include him on the roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off.

#19 Sticking with all situations Goals Saved Above Expected but looking at the low end of the spectrum, the goaltenders with the fewest Goals Saved Above Expected this season: Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (-14.53), San Jose’s Alexandar Georgiev (-13.56), Columbus’ Daniil Tarasov (-11.39), Utah’s Connor Ingram (-9.61), and Carolina’s Spencer Martin (-9.56). From that group, Swayman obviously stands out, given the strong track record that he had prior to this season, but Ingram had an excellent season in 2023-2024, so his decline before getting hurt is notable, too. The goaltenders at the top of the list might be surprising, too, at least after Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (+22.84). The rest of the top five are: Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal (+17.51), Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz (+13.46), Seattle’s Joey Daccord (+11.39), and Utah’s Karel Vejmelka (+10.94).

#20 There are some popular players with fantasy managers who are running ice cold lately, including New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton, Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson, the Rangers’ Chris Kreider, and Buffalo’s Alex Tuch, among others. Hamilton has gone seven games without a point and his ice time has dropped below 18 minutes in three of his past four games. In his past five games, Pettersson has zero points and eight shots on goal, while averaging 16:50 of ice time per game. Kreider recorded his first (and only) assist of the season on December 6th and has since gone six straight games without a point, though he does have 17 shots on goal in that span. Tuch has one point (1 G, 0 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past six games and played a season-low 14:34 against Montreal on Tuesday.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

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NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Youngsters making the most of their opportunity – McMichael, Clarke and Sillinger https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-youngsters-making-opportunity-mcmichael-clarke-sillinger/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-cullen-20-fantasy-points-youngsters-making-opportunity-mcmichael-clarke-sillinger/#respond Fri, 01 Nov 2024 19:01:22 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=190449 Read More... from NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Youngsters making the most of their opportunity – McMichael, Clarke and Sillinger

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Los Angeles Kings Defenceman Brandt Clarke (92)(Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Connor McMichael steps forward in Washington, Brandt Clarke is making the most of his opportunity in Los Angeles, William Karlsson returns to the Vegas lineup, Cole Sillinger is responding on Columbus’ top line, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 It has been a very gradual progression for Washington Capitals 2019 first-round pick Connor McMichael, who had a career-high 33 points (18 G, 15 A) last season. Early in this season, McMichael has taken his game to a new level, though, putting up 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 27 shots on goal in the first 10 games. He does have higher percentages working in his favor, but the increasing shot rate is encouraging, and McMichael is finding his groove on Washington’s second line with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson, in addition to getting second unit power play time.

#2 When Drew Doughty was injured in the preseason, there was some debate over whether Brandt Clarke or Jordan Spence would reap the rewards of extra ice time in Doughty’s absence. There isn’t much debate anymore, as Clarke has produced 11 points (1 G, 10 A) in 11 games, with five of those points coming via the power play. He is only playing a little more than 18 minutes per game, so it’s not like the Kings are force-feeding Clarke minutes, but they are allowing him to play to his considerable puck-moving strengths.

#3 Vegas Golden Knights centre William Karlsson missed the first eight games of the season due to injury but provided an immediate jolt to the lineup upon his return. In his first three games, Karlsson contributed four points (1 G, 3 A) and eight shots on goal, skating on a line with Tanner Pearson and Alexander Holtz. Karlsson does not necessarily get a prime role on the power play and with Tomas Hertl and Jack Eichel also skating at centre for Vegas, there are some limits to what Karlsson can do at even strength, but he had 30 goals and 60 points in 70 games last season, so it’s fair to expect Wild Bill to fulfill a significant offensive role.

#4 While there have been ups and downs in the career of Cole Sillinger, the 12th pick in the 2021 Draft by the Columbus Blue Jackets, he is making the most of the opportunity he is getting in Columbus this season. Sillinger is skating on Columbus’ top line with Sean Monahan and Kirill Marchenko, contributing eight points (2 G, 6 A) with 20 shots on goal in nine games. He is also averaging a career-high 18 minutes of ice time per game, so there is a real chance for Sillinger to play in a scoring role for as long as he continues to produce.

#5 Veteran Dallas Stars forward Tyler Seguin has missed a couple of games with a lower-body injury, but has delivered eight points (4 G, 4 A) in six games. Tread carefully with the 32-year-old, however, as Seguin has managed just eight shots on goal and is only averaging 15:47 of ice time per game, his lowest average since his rookie season in 2010-2011.

#6 A late bloomer who scored a career-best 37 points (14 G, 23 A) as a 30-year-old last season, New Jersey Devils right winger Stefan Noesen has handled a bigger role in his return to New Jersey. Noesen is averaging more than 14 minutes per game for the first time in his NHL career, and he has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) and 20 shots on goal in 13 games. That shot volume is a little concerning and Noesen has been riding favorable percentages, but he has also landed a spot on the Devils’ top power play and four of his 12 points have come via the man advantage, so he offers some deep league appeal.

#7 There may be a ceiling to what Buffalo Sabres defenceman Owen Power can produce offensively, because Rasmus Dahlin is the locked-in quarterback on Buffalo’s top power play unit, but Power is currently riding a five-game point streak during which he has seven even-strength points (1 G, 6 A) and nine shots on goal. The first pick in the 2021 Draft, Power has had a couple of quality seasons, but if he can contribute more offensively, that will both improve the outlook for both him individually and the Sabres as a team.

#8 Coming into the season, 24-year-old Vegas Golden Knights winger Pavel Dorofeyev had contributed 33 points (20 G, 13 A) in 67 career games, which provided a decent indication that he could be a viable option to provide secondary scoring. He has stepped up in his past five games, delivering seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 22 shots on goal. Half of Dorofeyev’s six goals this season have come on the power play, but he has been able to generate offense at five-on-five and that is what gives him a chance to keep earning a bigger role.

#9 When the Anaheim Ducks lost goaltender John Gibson to appendicitis late in the preseason, that thrust goaltender Lukas Dostal into the starter’s role and the 24-year-old netminder has risen to the challenge. In eight starts, Dostal has a .945 save percentage and he already has 14.01 Goals Saved Above Expected, the best mark in the league. With trade rumours swirling around Gibson, Dostal’s play could make it easier for the Ducks to pull the trigger on a deal.

#10 Another late bloomer, 29-year-old Vancouver Canucks winger Kiefer Sherwood had a career-high 27 points (10 G, 17 A) in 68 games, earning a free agent contract with the Canucks. Sherwood has started his Vancouver career with five points (2 G, 3 A) in nine games, but for fantasy managers, it’s the hits that make the difference. Sherwood has an astonishing 64 hits in nine games, which would prorate to 583 hits over a full season, an absurd number. Sherwood has enjoyed success skating on a line with Danton Heinen and Teddy Blueger and looks like he is well on his way to the best season of his career.

#11 A few weeks ago, Colorado Avalanche forward Ross Colton was a top-tier pickup after moving to left wing on the top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Then he managed to survive potential injury at Utah only to suffer a broken foot two games later against Chicago. This will keep him out for 6-8 weeks. As a result, rookie Nikolai Kovalenko moves up the depth chart to skate on the top line in Colorado. Kovalenko has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 12 shots on goal in 11 games, so it is a big jump to move to that line. He has also hit the net on just 12 of 29 shot attempts, 41.4 percent, compared to Colton, who has 37 shots on goal in 60 shot attempts, 61.7 percent. Maybe playing with the superstars will give Kovalenko better quality chances and he will hit the net more frequently.

#12 Carolina Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen was off to an excellent start this season, posting a .941 save percentage in four starts, but he is hurt now, considered week-to-week with a lower-body injury. That should mean more consistent starts for Pyotr Kochetkov, the 25-year-old netminder who has won four of five starts, but has a .891 save percentage.

#13 Although he had a rough game against Toronto in Winnipeg’s only loss this season, on the ice for all six Maple Leafs goals, Jets defenseman Neal Pionk is otherwise off to an outstanding start this season, producing 12 points (3 G, 9 A) with 25 shots on goal in 10 games. Pionk also has 16 blocked shots and 13 hits, so he is filling categories across the board, making him more valuable than ever.

#14 It was a surprise that the San Jose Sharks landed defenseman Jake Walman from the Detroit Red Wings in the offseason, but it has provided him a bigger opportunity and he has responded with more production. Walman is playing 22:53 per game, up more than three minutes per game from last season, and he has contributed nine points (1 G, 8 A) and 32 shots on goal in a dozen games. He moves the puck in the right direction when he is on the ice, which is not commonplace among the Sharks, and he is getting first unit power play time, though he has just one power play point.

#15 Second-year New York Rangers left winger Will Cuylle showed some promise as a rookie, particularly with his tendency to hit and hit a lot, but he is bringing enough offense early in the season to make himself fantasy relevant. Cuylle has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 18 shots on goal in nine games, but he also has 39 hits. Playing on a thriving third line with Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko, as well as delivering more than four hits per game makes Cuylle more appealing in most leagues, but especially in banger leagues in which those hits are rewarded.

#16 San Jose Sharks right winger Fabian Zetterlund broke through last season with career highs of 24 goals and 44 points, taking advantage of the bigger role afforded to him after he had been acquired from New Jersey. Even with his ice time down a couple of minutes per game, Zetterlund is off to a strong start with eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 28 shots on goal in 12 games. He is thriving in a complementary role, skating on a line with Alex Wennberg and rookie Danil Guschin, in addition to getting second unit power play time.

#17 When Thatcher Demko was deemed not to be ready to start the season in net for the Vancouver Canucks, they signed Kevin Lankinen to give them a steady veteran to play alongside rookie Arturs Silovs. Lankinen has excelled in the role, earning six starts, and has a .920 save percentage, making him the better option between the pipes for Vancouver. Presumably, Demko should return to action at some point this season but, in the meantime, Lankinen is a viable option. He has never started more than the 37 games that he started as a rookie, but Lankinen has been an above-average backup for the past couple of seasons and has probably reached the point at which he is capable of handling more responsibility than he had previously. At least in the short term, it makes him a valuable addition for the Canucks.

#18 He has been held off the scoresheet for three straight games, but Washington Capitals centre Pierre-Luc Dubois might be worth considering as a buy-low option. He has five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games, with just one goal on 19 shots on goal. He has never scored on less than 11.0 percent of his shots on goal, so it would be highly unlikely that Dubois continues to linger around 5.3 percent, where he currently sits. After a disastrous 2023-2024 season in Los Angeles, Dubois’ value is relatively low and his lack of goal production early in this season only deepens that perception, but that is why he could very well provide value as an addition from the fantasy waiver wire.

#19 When seeking out potential buy-low options, one place to look is for players who are underperforming their rate of individual expected goals. Expected goals try to incorporate some measure of shot quality, so that we have some idea about the quality of chances that they are receiving.  The forwards whose expected goals are exceeding their actual goal production include Zach Hyman (-4.79), Dubois (-3.79), Dylan Cozens (-3.46), Steven Stamkos (-3.45), Michael Bunting (-3.42), Cutter Gauthier (-3.14), William Eklund (-2.99), Morgan Frost (-2.98), Brad Marchand (-2.95), and Auston Matthews (-2.89). Some of these players are off to very slow starts, but they are clearly generating scoring chances, so all hope is not lost.

#20 At the other end of the spectrum are players that are exceeding their expected goals. Great finishers will typically score more than the average player given the same number and quality of chances, but these players also need to be monitored as they might be beneficiaries of unsustainably good luck early in the season. The forwards that have most exceeded their expected goals this season include Cole Caufield (+5.65), Kyle Connor (+5.63), Leon Draisaitl (+4.59), Nikita Kucherov (+4.33), Tage Thompson (+4.06), Sam Bennett (+4.06), Sam Reinhart (+3.67), Claude Giroux (+3.53), Ryan Donato (+3.53), and Ivan Barbashev (+3.26).

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

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NHL: Training Camp Updates https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-training-camp-updates/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-training-camp-updates/#respond Tue, 01 Oct 2024 19:02:07 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=188596 Read More... from NHL: Training Camp Updates

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Toronto Maple Leafs Winger William Nylander (88) (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

As the NHL season approaches, training camps are in full swing and preseason action is underway. That means that changes are already taking place with injuries and opportunities changing every day.

Doughty suffers broken ankle

Los Angeles Kings defenceman Drew Doughty suffered a broken ankle that leaves him out month-to-month. That is a huge loss for the Kings but, it means new opportunities because someone will have to fill the void that is created by Doughty’s injury. Brandt Clarke was already poised to play a regular role on the Kings blueline but could step into a role on the Kings’ first power play unit. Clarke has eight points (2 G, 6 A) in 25 career games and half of those points have come with the man advantage. If not Clarke, Jordan Spence could step up, too. He had 24 points (2 G, 22 A) in 71 games last season, with six points on the power play. Clarke has the better pedigree. He was selected eighth overall in the 2021 Draft and produced 46 points (10 G, 36 A) in 50 games in the AHL last season.

Appendicitis knocks out Gibson

Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson underwent emergency surgery for an appendectomy and that will keep him out for 3-6 weeks. If he only missed three weeks, that will not cost him too many starts, but if it’s closer to the other end of the spectrum, there will be more games for Lukas Dostal. While Dostal appeared in 44 games for the Ducks last season, he managed just 13 wins and had a .902 save percentage, which is not enough to believe that he is going to have significant fantasy value this season.

Boqvist on Panthers’ top power play

With Brandon Montour signing in Seattle, it appears that Panthers defenceman Adam Boqvist is getting a look as the quarterback on Florida’s No. 1 power play unit. He has never played more than 52 games in an NHL season and has 85 points (23 G. 62 A) in 209 games, with 29 of those points coming on the power play. However, there are 57 defencemen that have played at least 300 five-on-four minutes across the past three seasons and Boqvist ranks 50th with 3.32 points per 60 minutes and 55th with 4.88 on-ice GF/60. To his slight credit, he ranks 41st with 6.84 xGF/60 in those situations. If Boqvist ultimately can’t handle the role, Aaron Ekblad could be lurking as a possible quarterback on PP1.

Hanifin getting first unit power play time in Vegas

On a team that already boasts Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore, it appears that Noah Hanifin is getting an opportunity to skate with the top power play in Vegas. Hanifin recorded 47 points last season, with 13 points on the power play, including five of his 12 points with Vegas after he was acquired from Calgary. While Hanifin ranked fifth with 11.87 shots per 60 minutes during five-on-four play across the past three seasons, he ranked 29th with 4.35 points per 60 minutes. He also ranked 50th with 5.80 on-ice goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. This is a position of relative strength for the Golden Knights, so if Hanifin isn’t getting the job done on the first power play, they have two more options who have experienced some success in that role.

Cooley and Guenther could offer big fantasy value

The Utah Hockey Club has some promise heading into the season, not the least of which is related to a couple of young forwards who finished hot last season and could be poised for big things in 2024-2025. Right winger Dylan Guenther just signed an eight-year contract extension for more than $57 million, even though he has played just 78 NHL games, but the ninth pick in the 2021 Draft has an awe-inspiring shot and finished last season with 17 points (9 G, 8 A) with 53 shots on goal in his last 16 games. Pair Guenther with Logan Cooley, the third pick in the 2022 Draft, who finished fifth in Calder Trophy voting last season and he had 14 points (9 G, 5 A) in his last 16 games. Two young players finishing with that kind of production offers temptation for what they might be able to accomplish this season. The answer could be: more than you think.

Luke Hughes recovering from shoulder injury

Devils defenceman Luke Hughes, who finished third in Norris Trophy voting last season, could miss the first month of the regular season due to a shoulder injury suffered in offseason training. Hughes’ injury opens the door for Simon Nemec, another highly drafted defenceman going into his second NHL season, to take on a bigger role including time on the Devils’ second power play unit. Nemec had 19 points (3 G, 16 A) in 60 games as a rookie, but could certainly improve on that if he can secure regular time with the man advantage.

Tatar getting a good opportunity in New Jersey

The last time that Tomas Tatar was skating for the New Jersey Devils, he produced 20 goals and 48 points during the 2022-2023 season. Last season, between Colorado and Seattle, Tatar managed just 24 points (9 G, 15 A) in 70 games. He played 12:27 per game, his lowest average since 2012-2013. But right now it looks like Tatar has a chance to skate on the Devils’ second line, with Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer, which would put Tatar much more in line to produce 40-plus points again.

Willy Styles to center

Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander is getting a training camp look at centre ice, which does shuffle up the forward lines, sending John Tavares to the third line. Nylander at center allows the Leafs to play Max Domi and Calle Jarnkrok on his wings, while Nick Robertson and Bobby McMann can skate on Tavares’ wings, giving Toronto better scoring depth. Of course, Max Pacioretty would seem like a logical fit in a middle six role following his tryout, so Jarnkrok or McMann would seem like candidates to move down the depth chart, unless Robertson is moved out.

Michkov a Calder favorite?     

Philadelphia Flyers rookie right winger Matvei Michkov is either the favorite or co-favorite to win the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year in the NHL. The seventh pick in the 2023 Draft, Michkov had 41 points (19 G, 22 A) in 47 KHL games last season. He is looking at the opportunity to start the season on the Flyers’ second line while receiving first unit power play time. He has four points (1 G, 3 A) through his first two preseason games, which has done nothing to turn down the hype machine but maybe it’s deserved.

Beauviller getting a chance in Pittsburgh

After managing a career-low five goals and 17 points for Vancouver and Nashville last season, Anthony Beauvillier is the epitome of a buy-low performer. He is also looking at the potential opportunity to skate on Pittsburgh’s top line alongside Sidney Crosby. It can be a revolving door on Crosby’s wing, but the opportunity to skate with such an elite centre would elevate Beauvillier’s scoring potential, at least making him relevant for fantasy owners. He has never scored more than 40 points in a season, but that career high happened one year before his career low performance.

Montour ahead of Dunn for PP1 in Seattle

The Seattle Kraken appear to be giving free agent acquisition Brandon Montour a shot to quarterback the top power play unit. Across the previous three seasons, among the 57 defencemen to play at least 200 minutes Montour ranked 20th with 4.69 points per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. Dunn ranked 33rd with 4.26 points per 60, which is not a dramatic different. When it comes to on-ice goals for per 60 minutes, Montour ranked tenth, with 10.02, while Dunn ranked 47th with 6.16. Since they were operating on different teams, it seems that these numbers would be heavily influenced by the talent around them.

Faulk on PP1 for St. Louis

With Torey Krug likely to miss the season as he deals with a bad ankle, Justin Faulk is getting the opportunity to run the Blues’ top power play unit. Faulk has experience in the role, with 134 of his 426 career points coming with the man advantage. If Faulk can’t guide the unit successfully, Scott Perunovich, Colton Parayko and Philip Broberg could all be viable candidates, too.

Demko remains out for Vancouver

With an uncertain timeline for the return to action of goaltender Thatcher Demko, the Vancouver Canucks have signed Kevin Lankinen, to pair with Artrus Silovs in the crease while they wait. Lankinen has been a quality backup, posting a .912 save percentage in 43 games with Nashville over the past two seasons, but he could be required to handle a larger percentage of the action, at least while Demko is sidelined. Silovs has flashed potential but has started a total of 19 NHL games, nine during the regular season and 10 in the playoffs. He has a .898 save percentage in those games, so the 23-year-old netminder is still a work in progress as he tries to establish himself as a full-time NHLer.

Tarasov getting his shot in Columbus?

With Elvis Merzlikins coming off a terrible season, and big changes in the Blue Jackets organization, it could be time for 25-year-old goaltender Daniil Tarasov to get the starter’s job in Columbus. Tarasov has a .905 save percentage in 45 career games, which is enough to at least consider him in a tandem with Merzlikins, but it would not take much for Tarasov to become the first option for the rebuilding Blue Jackets.

 

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MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – ANAHEIM DUCKS – Team Preview https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2024-25-nhl-yearbook-anaheim-ducks-team-preview-2/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2024-25-nhl-yearbook-anaheim-ducks-team-preview-2/#respond Thu, 26 Sep 2024 16:00:04 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=188444 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – ANAHEIM DUCKS – Team Preview

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WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 23: Ducks center Mason McTavish (37) stickhandles during the Anaheim Ducks versus Washington Capitals National Hockey League game on February 23, 2023 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

The rebuilding Ducks weren’t expected to make the playoffs in 2023-24, but there was still some hope that they might at least take a step forward compared to their 2022-23 finish under new bench boss Greg Cronin. Given that they finished the prior campaign with a 23-47-12 record, that couldn’t be a lower bar to exceed, but in the end, they had a similarly dreary showing in 2023-24, finishing at 27-50-5. It didn’t help that Trevor Zegras was limited to 31 contests last season after previously leading the Ducks offensively with 65 points, but even still, it’s hard to blame finishing 30th offensively (2.48 goals per game) and 30th defensively (3.57 goals allowed per game) on some injury issues

WHAT’S CHANGED? Jakob Silfverberg decided to end his NHL playing career, but the Ducks otherwise didn’t lose any major players over the summer. They didn’t make any major acquisitions either, though, with arguably the most noteworthy add being Robby Fabbri, who is projected to serve in a middle-six capacity after being grabbed in a trade with Detroit. However, that’s not to suggest Anaheim’s upcoming roster will be a near carbon copy of its previous one. Cutter Gauthier might make a big impact as a rookie, and we also should see youngsters Pavel Mintyukov, Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish take steps forward.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? If Gauthier lives up to the hype after scoring 38 goals and 65 points across 41 contests with Boston College last year, and becomes a prominent part of Anaheim’s top six, then that alone would be reason for celebration. Getting to see some measurable progress out of the aforementioned Mintyukov, Carlsson, and McTavish would also be a big deal. Outside of that, a lot of attention will be on 24-year-old goaltender Lukas Dostal, who had some absolutely stunning starts last year, but lacked consistency. If he can find his rhythm this season while the Ducks simultaneously get contributions from that young group, then Anaheim would be an exciting team to watch.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? When you’re a young team relying on prospects, the most obvious potential issue is that they need more time to develop than initially thought. McTavish, for example, made some strides last season, but he didn’t end up having the breakout campaign some hoped for. Anaheim might encounter similar growing pains again. Then there’s the issue of the team’s overall defence. Dostal had two 50-plus save performances last season, which is an amazing accomplishment, but also highlights the defensive shortcomings of those in front of him. Anaheim ranked 30th last year with 3.4 xGA/60. If the Ducks don’t improve meaningfully by that metric, then it's hard to envision them competing for a playoff spot even if everything else goes ideally.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Trading Jamie Drysdale to Philadelphia in January was a difficult decision, but Gauthier could make it worth it. He has the potential to be the full package, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Anaheim use him in a top six capacity this season.

FORWARD

Troy Terry

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
79 24 31 55 0.70

While Terry had his third straight season with at least 20 goals and 50 points, his production dipped a bit from the previous two seasons. Part of that was a function of a declining shot rate, going from 2.69 shots on goal per game in 2022-2023 to 2.26 shots on goal per game in 2023-2024. He has still matured into a reliable first-line winger, even if not necessarily a star; a reliable contributor at both ends of the rink. Terry’s confidence has grown, and it is reflected in his play and how he has the patience to attack defenders one-on-one and make plays to generate scoring chances.  He also plays a game that is not especially physical. Among the 223 forwards that have played at least 200 games in the past three seasons, Terry ranks 222nd (ahead of only Johnny Gaudreau) with 35 hits. Nevertheless, on a team that is depending on elite young talent, a proven performer like Terry is of vital importance to help those players get to the next level in their development. Part of the challenge when forecasting his production in 2024-2025 is that proliferation of young forwards at the top of the depth chart in Anaheim. That does leave some variability but, considering his performance in recent seasons, 25 goals and 60 points remain reasonable objectives.

Trevor Zegras

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
79 18 28 46 0.58

A broken ankle and lower-body injuries limited Zegras to just 31 games last season and while he managed just 15 points, he did have quality underlying numbers, so he does have a chance to deliver a bounce back season. For one thing, Zegras is a creative playmaker who can make highlight reel plays and there is an audacity to his game that is exciting. The challenge will be to turn his immense puck skills into better on-ice results. Since Zegras has not been able to improve in the faceoff circle, winning 40.6 percent of his draws, it could make sense to shift him to the wing, at least some of the time. That would free him up to focus more on the attack, which is an obvious strength to his game. He already has two seasons with more than 60 points, so he has offensive upside that could really pay off under the right circumstances. The question will be whether he finds those right circumstances in Anaheim next season. The Ducks are improving their depth of talent and there should be enough quality available that Zegras can play a top six role as well as first-unit power play. He had a career low on-ice shooting percentage (7.7 percent) last season, and his shooting percentage of 8.2 percent was down from the previous couple of seasons. If his percentages pick back up, Zegras should be able to once again challenge for 20 goals and 60 points.

Frank Vatrano

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 26 26 52 0.63

A sturdy winger who has always been able to generate shots, Vatrano reached his peak performance level in 2023-2024, setting career highs with 37 goals and 60 points. He also delivered 156 hits, the first season of his career in which he exceeded 100 hits. He added banger league value with a career-high 85 penalty minutes, too. What is wild about Vatrano’s impressive statistical breakout season is that his on-ice results were quite poor. The Ducks controlled 44.1 percent of shot attempts and 45.1 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play while Vatrano was on the ice. They were outscored 67-47. That was better than his first season in Anaheim but, still, there is a lot of room for improvement in his all-around impact. Vatrano played mostly with Ryan Strome and Mason McTavish, so there is talent around him, but their defensive play needs dramatic improvement if the Ducks are going to be more competitive. Putting aside the team impacts, fantasy managers are going to be interested in Vatrano because of his offensive production, coupled with hits and a strong shot rate as he recorded a career-high 3.32 shots on goal per game last season. It is probably fair not to expect Vatrano to repeat his career-best season, but he could still deliver 25 goals and 45-50 points, along with 100-plus hits.

Leo Carlsson

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
75 20 29 49 0.65

The second overall pick in the 2023 Draft, Carlsson made a smooth transition to the NHL as an 18-year-old centre. The 6-foot-3 pivot plays a game well beyond his years, particularly on the defensive end, where he has an active stick and plays a sound positional game. Carlson’s combination of size and skill offers tantalizing potential. He scored six goals in his first nine games and endured some injuries on his way to finishing with 12 goals and 29 points in 55 games. He missed time with a sprained MCL, a concussion, and another lower-body injury, which obviously didn’t help his development, but he showed well in the games that he played. That is barely scratching the surface of Carlsson’s potential, but it also might take some time for the skilled young forward to reach that potential. Carlsson’s play driving numbers – better than break-even in terms of Corsi percentage and expected goals percentage – while playing more than 18 minutes per game on a team near the bottom of the standings, were very encouraging. He shoots the puck well enough already to score from distance and has soft hands that serve him well when he has the puck in close to the net. These signs suggest that it’s not a reach to expect a significant offensive jump this season. Something along the lines of 20 goals and 50-plus points would be a move in the right direction.

Mason McTavish

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
77 23 33 56 0.73

The third pick in the 2021 Draft, McTavish continued to make progress in his second NHL season, ultimately finishing with one less point in 16 fewer games than he played in 2022-2023. His 1.65 primary points per 60 minutes of five-on-five play ranked 81st. Considering that he is 21 years old, this is a strong rate of production. While his possession numbers continue to improve, McTavish is still underwater there, with 45.4 percent Corsi and 46.8 expected goals percentage. A strong and physical forward who can win battles along the boards and use his body to effectively protect the puck, he should be able to improve his shot differentials. Last season, he did miss 18 games with a variety of injuries and while none of them were major, that is going to be something to monitor as his career progresses. When it comes to determining McTavish’s offensive upside in 2024-2025, it will depend on what kind of offensive opportunities are provided to him. On a team that also has Leo Carlsson and Trevor Zegras down the middle of the ice, McTavish is facing competition for prime scoring ice time. Considering where he is in his career, though, there should be more progress, so 20 goals and 50 points are reasonable targets for him this season.

Alex Killorn

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
72 22 28 50 0.63

Coming off career-highs of 27 goals and 64 points in 2022-2023, Killorn cashed in last summer as a free agent after years of being a quality contributor during the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Stanley Cup runs. The veteran winger was the beneficiary of an unsustainably high shooting percentage that season, though, so he was a natural candidate for regression in his first season with the Ducks. Sure enough, Killorn’s production dropped to 18 goals and 36 points in 63 games while playing a career-high 18:44 per game. That required a rather furious finish, which saw Killorn score 11 goals in his last 24 games. Even in his mid-30s, Killorn was still an effective play driver, his 51 percent Corsi ranking second among Ducks regulars and he was a reliable penalty killer. While his contract may not age well, in the short term, Killorn brings a professionalism and commitment that can help lead the young Ducks in the right direction. At his age, there is a decreasing likelihood that Killorn will bounce back to previous levels of production, so 15-20 goals and a 40-point season is a fair expectation, but some of that will depend on how well the younger players perform. If they are not ready to step into prominent roles, then Killorn could still be needed to score for the Ducks.

Ryan Strome

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
72 13 28 41 0.50

A veteran forward who can play centre or wing, Strome has put up back-to-back 41-point seasons in his first two years with the Ducks. While he is a capable complementary player at the offensive end, Strome’s defensive play has declined significantly in his first two seasons with the Ducks. Maybe some of that is a function of an inexperienced supporting cast, but the Ducks have been outscored 126-85 with Strome on the ice for five-on-five play across the past two seasons. In those two seasons, the Ducks have managed 43.7 percent of shots attempts and 41.3 percent of expected goals with him on the ice, so his poor results are backed by poor underlying numbers. That’s not going to cut it, especially when he is needed to be a veteran leader for this team. Strome’s ability to play multiple positions does give Anaheim more options when trying to put their lines together, but it would be most helpful if Strome added a dose of reliability wherever he ultimately fits in the lineup. If not, his ice time could continue to decrease. Last season, his ice time fell below 16 minutes per game for the first time since 2018-2019. At this point, with younger players pushing for bigger roles with the Ducks, it’s probably not reasonable to expect Strome to provide much more than the 40 points.

Robby Fabbri

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
75 16 17 33 0.44

A veteran forward who has had to overcome three ACL tears to continue his NHL career, Fabbri has skill and is obviously extremely resilient, but injuries have taken a toll on him. Despite tying his career high with 18 goals last season, Fabbri has been dependent on finishing at a high percentage – he had a shooting percentage of 18.9 percent across his last two seasons in Detroit – because he does not generate a lot of shots on goal. On the positive side, Fabbri scored 1.09 goals per 60 minutes last season, which ranked 47th among forwards that played at least 500 minutes. Fabbri’s ice time fell below 13 minutes per game last season, the first time he failed to meet that threshold since 2018-2019. Fabbri has some versatility that allows him to fill a middle six role for Anaheim. He has also been a poor defensive player, so that could potentially pose problems for a Ducks team that does not have an abundance of quality two-way forwards. In any case, Fabbri should be able to contribute secondary scoring as long as he is healthy, but he played 68 games last season and that was his most since playing in 72 games as a rookie, so it’s almost assured that he will miss time. That leaves some variability in expectations but something in the range of 15 goals and 30 points is a fair expectation.

Brett Leason

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
80 12 12 24 0.30

Leason is a 6-foot-5 winger who enjoyed something of a breakout season in 2023-2024, scoring 11 goals and 22 points, high-water marks to this point in his career. Leason’s size gives him an edge when it comes to battling for pucks and his ability to chip in offensively made him a valuable depth forward for the Ducks last season. For a player who tends to spend most of his time on the lower end of the depth chart, Leason does have a potent wrist shot, which makes him capable of scoring from distance. If he is going to be something more than a fourth-line player, the next challenge is for him to be able to generate more opportunities to use that shot. Leason’s best stretch came in the second half of the season when, upon returning from an upper-body injury, he tallied nine points (5 G, 4 A) in 14 games while he averaged 14:29 of ice time per game. He could not sustain those numbers over a longer period, and it would be unreasonable to expect that from him, but looking ahead, Leason could still contribute double-digit goals and 20-plus points, with some upward mobility if he manages to climb the depth chart.

DEFENCE

Cam Fowler

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 7 36 43 0.52

A steady veteran who has played 14 seasons in Anaheim, Fowler’s experience and steady hand is of major importance on a Ducks blueline that is developing young talent. Fowler has always been an adept distributor of the puck and has surpassed 30 assists in each of the past three seasons. He has averaged more than 24 minutes of ice time in each of those three seasons and he should remain in that kind of prominent role again. Oddly enough, Fowler led the Ducks in ice time during four-on-five play, even though his results have crashed hard in recent seasons. Across the past three campaigns, there are 113 defencemen that have played at least 300 minutes of four-on-five play and only three have a higher expected goals against and three have a higher goals against per 60 minutes than Fowler. Nevertheless, Fowler is of critical importance on this team, a consistent presence who has been durable, missing a total of seven games across the past four seasons. He is not a strong physical presence, instead relying on strong instincts and hockey IQ to put him in the right position. Considering his role and reliability, Fowler should find himself scoring in the range of 40 points once again.

Pavel Mintyukov

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
71 5 30 35 0.49

The 10th pick in the 2022 Draft, Mintyukov made his NHL debut last season, and it was a strong first season. He showed lots of potential, and it is going to be up to the young blueliner and the Ducks organization to develop him into a bona fide No. 1 defenceman. Mintyukov skates well and is not shy about using that skill to join the attack, entering the offensive zone with confidence. He recorded seven power play points in a 30-game span from November 1 through January 10, but he suffered a separated shoulder and missed more than a month of action and did not record another point with the man advantage for the rest of the season. Even so, Mintyukov averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game after returning from his injury and contributed nine points in 23 games. There were naturally some growing pains in his first NHL season, because he was 19 years old when last season started, and he was playing significant minutes on a team that was among the weakest squads in the league. For a top player like Mintyukov, though, that experience should be valuable, giving him the opportunity to step forwards into an even more significant role in his second season. Certainly, the hope will be that he manages to stay healthier than he did in his rookie campaign and that could reasonably lead to 35-40 points, possibly more if Mintyukov takes over as the quarterback on Anaheim’s top power play unit.

Radko Gudas

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
74 4 12 16 0.22

Despite missing 16 games last season, Gudas was one of just two defencemen to record at least 150 blocked shots and 200 hits last season (Detroit’s Moritz Seider was the other one). Gudas is a warrior who sacrifices his body for his team and the 34-year-old blueliner has been doing it for quite some time. He joined the Ducks as a free agent last summer and averaged 19:30 of ice time per game, the second highest average of his career, and his highest average time on ice since 2015-2016. Although Gudas has a well-earned reputation for borderline hits, that should not overshadow that he is an excellent defender, who had the lowest on-ice rate of expected goals against (2.28 xGA/60) among Anaheim defenders last season. He is known much more for his play without the puck, but Gudas also contributes at the offensive end, partly because he is ready and willing to fire the puck whenever the opportunity is there for him. Among the eight defensemen that played at least 200 five-on-five minutes for the Ducks last season, Gudas had the highest rate of shot attempts (11.83 iCF/60) and shots on goal (4.38 Shots/60). For fantasy managers, Gudas offers sneaky value because he last reached 20 points in a season in 2018-2019, but he provides hits, blocked shots and even a passable rate of shots on goal that can make him useful. His penalty minute totals make him even more valuable in banger leagues. At this stage of his career, there is little point in expecting a dramatic change, so Gudas should be expected to contribute 15-20 points.

Brian Dumoulin

Predicted Stats
GP G A PTS PPG
82 4 14 18 0.22

Moving to Seattle resulted in an odd decrease in ice time, with Dumoulin averaging 17:01 of ice time per game after seven straight seasons averaging more than 20 minutes per game. That should get reversed in Anaheim, where the Ducks can surely use Dumoulin’s reliability on the blueline. He is a two-time Stanley Cup winner who was not merely a passenger on those Penguins teams – he was averaging more than 20 minutes per game on epic playoff runs. It is also unusual that Dumoulin saw this ice time reduced in Seattle because his on-ice results were quite strong, leading Kraken defencemen (minimum 500 five-on-five minutes) in both Corsi (53.9 percent) and expected goals percentage (54.5 percent). That doesn’t seem like a player who should have been playing less! Even at his peak, Dumoulin was never a big scorer, but he did have a career-high 25 points with Pittsburgh in 2022-2023. With a more prominent role on Anaheim’s blueline, Dumoulin should be able to find his way to 20 points, but he has surpassed 125 blocked shots and 100 hits four times each in his career. That kind of production in peripheral statistical categories might make him a worthwhile addition in deep leagues.

GOAL

John Gibson

Predicted Stats
GP W L OT SO SV% GAA
43 16 23 5 0 0.901 3.60

Lukas Dostal

Predicted Stats
GP W L OT SO SV% GAA
39 14 20 4 2 0.904 3.45

The post-John Gibson era in Anaheim is slowly approaching. With just three years left of the albatross eight-year deal that Gibson and the Ducks have been slogging through, and a bright new future with Lukas Dostal sitting front and center, it almost seems like Anaheim might just let the remainder of their veteran star's contract burn itself out at the Honda Center. While it seemed at the start of the 2023 season like Gibson might have been on the upswing, though, only Chicago's Arvid Soderblom served as a greater albatross in net as the year came to a close. While the Ducks continued to struggle with allowing quality shots in the high slot, a full season of both Gibson and Dostal made it painfully apparent that it wasn't just the team struggling - Gibson was struggling with them.

Things look bright for Anaheim with regards to how Dostal handled his first full season as half of an official NHL tandem, so the picture in Southern California isn't as bleak as it has been in recent years. While Dostal struggled almost as much as Gibson with net-front attacks, he was able to clean up the peripheral damage that Gibson had allowed to fester with poor defensive coverage outside the circles. His numbers matched up to a strong ability to stay on-angle and recover in time for rebound attempts in a way that Gibson hasn't been able to in at least a handful of seasons. Things won't truly turn around in net for the Ducks until Gibson's contract has finally reached an end, but the future looks much more promising now than it has since the Gibson-Frederik Andersen era.

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NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – A look at the playoff race – Teams with favourable schedules and players to target https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-dadoun-fantasy-week-playoff-race-teams-favourable-schedules-players-target/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-dadoun-fantasy-week-playoff-race-teams-favourable-schedules-players-target/#respond Sat, 23 Mar 2024 14:07:22 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=185800 Read More... from NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – A look at the playoff race – Teams with favourable schedules and players to target

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Last week I touched on Detroit’s losing streak, but the Red Wings’ situation has since stabilized. The Red Wings have won three of their past four games and earned a 6-3 victory in a key contest against the Islanders on Thursday. The Red Wings (36-28-6) now have a three-point edge over Washington (33-26-9) in the battle for the second wild-card spot, though Washington has two games in hand, so Detroit still has no margin for error.

At this stage, it looks like the fight for the final playoff seed in the East will come down to Detroit and Washington, but the Islanders (29-25-15), New Jersey (34-32-5), Buffalo (33-33-5) and even Pittsburgh (30-29-9) all have an outside chance of squeaking into the playoffs. Would it be shocking if, say, the Penguins earned a postseason berth? Absolutely, but it’s at least a mathematic possibility at the time of writing.

The final wild-card slot in the Western Conference is slightly more secure. Vegas (37-25-7) has a four-point edge over St. Louis (37-30-3) and a five-point lead over Minnesota (34-28-8) despite playing in one game less than either team. The Golden Knights likely still need to be solid down the stretch to secure their playoff berth, but at least they have a bit of breathing room.

The Blues and Wild are Vegas’ only real competition, but there is still an outside chance of a Cinderella story involving Calgary (33-30-5) or Seattle (28-28-12).

The Golden Knights still also have a path to earn the third seed in the Pacific Division over Los Angeles (36-22-11), though I’d almost say it doesn’t matter. Getting the third seed would put the Golden Knights on track to face Edmonton in the first round instead of Winnipeg, Colorado, Dallas or Vancouver. All five of those potential adversaries are great, so Vegas will have a tough first round either as a wild-card team or as the third seed in the Pacific Division.

Either way, the battle for the last playoff spots should be fun.

BOSTON, MA - JANUARY 24: Anaheim Ducks goalie Lukas Dostal (1) in warm up before a game between the Boston Bruins and the Anaheim Ducks on January 24, 2022, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Anaheim Ducks - TUE @ SEA, THU @ SEA, SAT @ EDM, SUN @ VAN (BTB)

Anaheim is set to play on the road all of next week. They have back-to-back contests against Seattle on Tuesday and Thursday, followed by games in Edmonton on Saturday and Vancouver on Sunday. It’s certainly not an easy schedule, especially on the back half, but the Ducks are one of the few teams scheduled to play four games, so they’re still worthy of mention.

Trevor Zegras hasn’t been in the lineup since Jan. 9 because of an ankle injury, but he has been able to resume practicing without restriction, which suggests that he’s close to returning. After exceeding the 60-point milestone in each of his previous two campaigns, he has just four goals and seven points in 20 outings this year. There’s a good chance he’ll at least be able to finish the year on a positive note, but regardless of what happens, it’s important you remember him for next season’s fantasy drafts. The 23-year-old forward should enjoy a comeback campaign, provided he gets better luck on the injury front.

The 2024-25 campaign should also be one of progress for Leo Carlsson, who has recorded nine goals and 24 points in 43 games as a rookie this season. In the meantime, though, he suffered a lower-body injury Thursday, so his status for next week’s contests is undetermined. If he can’t play then Isac Lundestrom might serve in a top-six capacity, but honestly rather than that be an opportunity for Lundestrom, it would just highlight the sorry state of the Ducks. The 24-year-old has just six points (four goals) in 34 contests this year and likely won’t do much offensively even if he moves up to the second line.

At least they have goaltender Lukas Dostal, who has done alright lately, posting a 2.69 GAA and a .916 save percentage over his past eight games. That’s worlds better than John Gibson’s 5.80 GAA (yes, really) and .833 save percentage in his past four outings. Given the disparity in their play, Dostal should get the majority of the remaining starts.

Buffalo Sabres – WED VS OTT, FRI VS NJD, SAT VS TOR (BTB)

The Sabres are likely to miss the playoffs for the 13th consecutive campaign, extending their record for the longest postseason drought in NHL history. However, they still have an outside shot of squeaking into the playoffs. In order to keep that hope alive, they’ll likely need to win all three of their contests against Ottawa on Wednesday, New Jersey on Friday and Toronto on Saturday. It’s a tall order, but at least the Sabres will have the home-ice advantage in all those games.

With Buffalo’s postseason hopes all but dashed, Jeff Skinner will likely have to wait even longer to make his first playoff appearance. The 31-year-old is approaching 1,000 career regular-season contests. This hasn’t been his best campaign, but Skinner has been alright with 24 goals and 45 points in 63 outings. He also earned his seventh career hat trick Monday when he led Buffalo in its 6-2 victory over Seattle.

Tage Thompson is surely hoping he won’t have to wait nearly as long as Skinner to get into the playoffs. However, if Thompson had played like he did in 2022-23 (47 goals, 94 points), perhaps the Sabres’ fortunes would have been different this campaign. Instead, he’s been alright, but not great with 21 goals and 43 points through 60 outings. The 27-year-old might end the season on a positive note, though. He’s on a four-game scoring streak in which Thompson has provided a goal and six points.

Meanwhile, Bowen Byram is just 22, but his name is already on the Cup thanks to his time with the Avalanche. Now a member of the Sabres, Byram is playing a prominent role and has taken advantage of that opportunity. He’s recorded three goals, six points, 17 blocks and 17 hits in eight contests while averaging 23:53 of ice time. Byram has even averaged a healthy 2:39 with the man advantage as a member of the Sabres, though the presence of Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power means the fight for power-play ice time will always be fierce among Buffalo defensemen.

Columbus Blue Jackets – TUE @ ARI, THU @ PIT, SAT VS PIT

This will mark the Blue Jackets’ fourth straight season without a playoff berth. Nothing they do now will alter the fact that it’s been a rough campaign, but they can at least end things on a positive note. It helps that they’ll be facing other non-playoff teams next week – they’ll play in Arizona on Tuesday, in Pittsburgh on Thursday and then host the Penguins on Saturday.

Johnny Gaudreau isn’t the reason Columbus will be missing the playoffs, though it is true he hasn’t lived up to expectations. His 55 points (11 goals) through 69 outings, would mark the lowest point-per-game pace of his career if the season ended now. However, Gaudreau has contributed a goal and six points in his past four contests, so the stage is set for him to finish the campaign on a positive note.

The same might be true of Alexander Nylander, who has eight goals and 11 points in 13 contests since being acquired by Columbus from Pittsburgh. The 26-year-old forward was held off the scoresheet in his previous two games, and it’s reasonable for fantasy managers to wonder if this is the right time to jump ship, especially because he doesn’t have a track record of success beyond his recent stretch. Personally, I recommend waiting a little longer though to see if his production picks up again. Keep in mind, Nylander is being utilized on the Blue Jackets’ top line and first power-play unit, which are roles that he hasn’t enjoyed for any noteworthy stretch until now, so there might be more to his production than a mere hot streak. I’m not saying that his new role has transformed him into a superstar, but he might still do well enough to be fantasy relevant the rest of the way.

Daniil Tarasov might have value going forward too. The 24-year-old has been subpar in 2023-24 with a 7-9-3 record, 3.20 GAA and .903 save percentage across 20 appearances, but he’s been far better dating back to Feb. 21, posting a 2.30 GAA and .934 save percentage over nine games. His strong play has led to the Blue Jackets increasingly using him over Elvis Merzlikins.

Ottawa Senators – WED @ BUF, THU VS CHI, SAT @ WPG 

Ottawa will begin next week with a breather before playing in Buffalo on Wednesday. The Senators will then host Chicago on Thursday and play in Winnipeg on Saturday. Like Ottawa, the Sabres and Blackhawks are having campaigns and aren’t expected to make the playoffs (Chicago has been mathematically eliminated while Buffalo has just a fringe chance of a wild-card spot), so those are two winnable games.

Ottawa is in a four-way tie for 28th defensively with 3.59 goals per game despite having an xGA/60 of 2.94, which ties the Senators for 11th overall. Those two stats in combination suggest is Ottawa’s defense is underrated and has been made to look bad this year due to poor goaltending. A case could be made that Joonas Korpisalo has been this year’s worst starter, ranking last in Goals Saved Above Expected at minus-19.4. In terms of his base stats line, he has a 15-21-4 record, 3.37 GAA and .887 save percentage in 44 contests. While it would be an oversimplification to say that Ottawa isn’t making the playoffs because of Korpisalo, it is fair to say that his terrible play has been a key factor.

Unfortunately, it seems the Senators overvalued his strong 2022-23 campaign when they inked Korpisalo to a five-year contract. While he had a Goals Saved Above Expected of 12.7 last season, he finished in the negatives in each campaign from 2017-18 through 2021-22, so performing below average relative to the team in front of him appears to be the norm for Korpisalo rather than the exception. This is all to say that if you’re looking for the 29-year-old goaltender to rebound in 2024-25, you’re making a risky bet that likely won’t pay off.

Not that Anton Forsberg, who has a 12-12-0 record, 3.42 GAA and .885 save percentage in 25 outings in 2023-24, is good either.  Forsberg is signed through 2024-25 at a cap hit of $2.75 million, so Ottawa might have this unfortunate duo again next year. If that’s the case, it’s hard to see them making the playoffs in 2024-25 either.

That’s unfortunate for Claude Giroux, who is 36 years old and consequently running out of chances to make another run at the Cup. If the direction of the Senators has been weighing on him, though, he hasn’t let that bleed into his game. He’s still provided a goal and five points over his past six contests, giving him 19 goals and 58 points through 68 outings overall. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the veteran finish the season on a high note. That should also be true of Brady Tkachuk, who has provided four goals and five points over his past four contests.

The goaltending clearly needs work, but with players like Giroux and Tkachuk leading the forward corps, at least that aspect of the Senators is strong.

Philadelphia Flyers – TUE @ NYR, THU @ MTL, SAT VS CHI

The Flyers are set to play on the road against the Rangers on Tuesday and the Canadiens on Thursday before hosting the Blackhawks on Saturday. While the Rangers are a tough adversary, Philadelphia has a golden chance to collect four points against Montreal and Chicago as it looks to secure its playoff spot.

The biggest story in Philadelphia is coach John Tortorella scratching Sean Couturier for the Flyers’ 4-3 win over Toronto on Tuesday and 3-2 overtime loss to Carolina on Thursday. This comes after a stretch in which Couturier registered just three assists and had a minus-13 rating over 14 games from Feb. 15-March 19. He also has only six points (one goal) in his last 23 contests, undoing his solid start to the campaign -- 30 points (10 markers) through his first 41 appearances.

Maybe this time off will allow him to reset and come back stronger. He’ll certainly be a player to watch closely next week because when Couturier’s at his best, he’s a strong top-line option.

In the meantime, Owen Tippett has been leading the Flyers’ attack. He has three goals and eight points over his past five games, bringing him up to 25 goals and 46 points through 66 outings this year. The 25-year-old is just two goals and three points shy of his career highs.

Morgan Frost is also on a five-game scoring streak, totaling three goals and seven points in that span. He hasn’t had an amazing campaign overall (12 goals and 38 points in 59 games), but the 24-year-old has been centering the top line and serving on the first power-play unit during Couturier’s absence. Given how well he’s done in that role, Frost might continue to feature prominently even after Couturier slides back into the lineup.

Pittsburgh Penguins – TUE VS CAR, THU VS CBJ, SAT @ CBJ

The Penguins have faded out of the playoff picture at this point and things aren’t going to get any easier when they host the Hurricanes on Tuesday. The silver lining is Pittsburgh does have a home-and-away series against the lowly Blue Jackets, which will take place Thursday and Saturday, respectively.

Michael Bunting, who Pittsburgh acquired from Carolina in the Jake Guentzel trade, seems to be settling in with his new team. He’s on a three-game scoring streak and has recorded a point in four of his last five contests, totaling two goals and two assists in that span. He’s seeing time on the top power-play unit and alongside Evgeni Malkin at even strength, so Bunting seems set to have a solid finish to the campaign.

Bryan Rust is looking to finish on a high note too. He’s been limited to 48 games this season due to injury, but he has been effective when healthy with 21 goals and 41 points. The 31-year-old has done particularly well recently, providing three goals and five points across his last four contests.

Lastly, while it doesn’t have fantasy relevance, you might want to pay attention to Jeff Carter. The 39-year-old is dealing with an upper-body issue, but when he returns, he’ll likely be playing out the last games of his career. While it’s possible he’ll pursue a new contract once his present one expires this summer, he likely won’t find any takers. He’s been held to nine goals and 12 points in 61 outings this campaign. Still, Carter has had a storied career, scoring 440 goals in 1,310 career games and playing a significant role in Los Angeles’ Stanley Cup victories in 2012 and 2014.

Seattle Kraken – TUE VS ANA, THU VS ANA, SAT VS DAL

Seattle will start the week with a pair of favorable home matchups against the lowly Ducks on Tuesday and Thursday. After that two-game series, the Kraken will host the Stars on Saturday.

Vince Dunn hasn’t played since March 4 due to an upper-body injury, and he doesn’t appear to be close to returning. He’s been a key offensive defenseman for the Kraken this campaign, providing 11 goals and 45 points in 57 games. Due to Dunn’s absence, Brian Dumoulin has seen an uptick in even-strength minutes, while Ryker Evans was summoned from AHL Coachella Valley and has received a power-play role.

Evans has done decently during Dunn’s absence, recording three assists -- all with the man advantage -- in the last seven games. He’s also played with a physical edge, accumulating eight PIM and 16 hits in the same span. Once Dunn returns, Evans might lose his spot in the lineup, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him continue to make those kinds of contributions until Dunn’s back.

Seattle’s forward corps hasn’t done great this campaign and Seattle’s attack has been particularly lackluster recently, totaling just five goals in four games from March 14-21. Still, Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a rare bright spot with a goal and three points during that stretch. He also has five goals and eight points over his last 11 contests to put his cold spell from Jan. 30-Feb. 24 (one assist in eight outings) well behind him.

As poor as the Kraken’s offense has been, Anaheim has done even worse, ranking 30th offensively with just 2.49 goals per game. It wouldn’t be surprising to see goaltenders Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord split the two-game set against the Ducks, and both netminders would be a good play versus Anaheim.

Vegas Golden Knights – MON @ STL, TUE @ NAS, (BTB), THU @ WPG, SAT @ MIN

The Golden Knights are one of the few teams set to play four games next week, though they’ll be on the road for that stretch. They’ll play in St. Louis on Monday, Nashville on Tuesday, Winnipeg on Thursday and Minnesota on Saturday. It’s not the easiest schedule, but the Golden Knights’ hold on the second wild-card spot is loose, so they’ll need to find a way to win a good chunk of those contests.

Their pursuit of a playoff berth has been complicated by Adin Hill, who has struggled mightily with a 3.90 GAA and an .872 save percentage over his last seven games. By contrast, Logan Thompson has saved 41 of 43 shots (.953 save percentage) over his last two contests, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Vegas pivot to Thompson, at least in the short term. Earlier in the campaign, the Golden Knights might have been more open to riding out Hill’s cold spell in the hopes that he’d rebound, but they don’t really have that luxury at this stage.

In terms of offense, it’s been defenseman Shea Theodore who has led the charge. The 28-year-old has collected 15 assists in 14 outings since returning from an upper-body injury. That’s propelled him to four goals and 33 points across 34 outings in 2023-24. Theodore has missed significant portions of the last two campaigns due to injury, but he would likely breach the 50-point milestone for the second time in his career if he manages to stay healthy next season.

Meanwhile, blueliner Noah Hanifin seems to be settling in fine with Vegas. He has four assists, a plus-3 rating, 10 blocks and 10 hits in seven contests since being acquired from the Flames. Hanifin’s also averaging 22:09 of ice time with Vegas, though he’s only on the second power-play unit, which limits his offensive potential a bit.

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FANTASY: The Week Ahead – November 6th to 12th – Teams to target with trending players and opportunities https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/fantasy-week-november-6th-12th-teams-target-trending-players-opportunities/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/fantasy-week-november-6th-12th-teams-target-trending-players-opportunities/#respond Mon, 06 Nov 2023 18:44:20 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=184111 Read More... from FANTASY: The Week Ahead – November 6th to 12th – Teams to target with trending players and opportunities

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SAN JOSE, CA - NOVEMBER 02: Vancouver Canucks defenseman Filip Hronek (17) skates with the puck during the NHL professional men’s hockey game between the Vancouver Canucks and San Jose Sharks on November 2, 2023 at the SAP Center in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire)

Last week I posed the question: Are the San Jose Sharks historically bad? Since then, they’ve been outscored 20-3 over the span of two games. I’m not going to make a second straight article headlined by the Sharks but…yikes.

Still, there’s a team sadder than them: The Edmonton Oilers. The Sharks might be the worst team this year, perhaps even the worst team ever assembled, but they were never supposed to be good. By contrast, the Oilers are actually trying to win the Cup, and yet they’re 2-7-1.

With each passing year, the possibility of squandering the luxury of having Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl together becomes even more real. After all, this is the ninth year they’ve been together. It’s not like it’s bound to get much easier either: Draisaitl is signed until the summer of 2025 at $8.5 million and after that, he’ll either demand a massive raise or, if he doesn’t think Edmonton is going anywhere, he’ll move on in the hopes of pursuing the Cup in the back half of his career. If Draisaitl leaves, McDavid could follow in the summer of 2026.

So, the stakes are very high, but can Edmonton rise to the occasion? There’s still time, even if they have dug themselves into a deep hole, but at this point, I think the only way for them to make the playoffs and compete for a spot is to somehow acquire a solid goaltender. That’s not a small ask. Teams with good goaltending aren’t exactly jumping to part with it, but Jack Campbell has been dreadful in Edmonton (a 3.53 GAA and an .886 save percentage through 41 contests with the Oilers), and while Stuart Skinner might rebound, the young goaltender isn’t a safe enough bet.

To be clear: This is on the goaltending. Edmonton’s expected goals allowed ranks eighth this season at 31.66, so the defense has been doing its part. The Oilers forwards have gotten off to a sluggish start, but the pieces are there, so I have faith that Edmonton’s forwards will come through. Unless the goaltending changes, though, that likely won’t matter.

Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim has three home games this week, hosting Pittsburgh on Tuesday, Philadelphia on Friday and San Jose on Sunday. The Sharks are, of course, the worst of those teams, but the Penguins have struggled too, posting a 4-6-0 record. Sure, Pittsburgh earned a 10-2 win Saturday, but…it was against the Sharks.

The Ducks are red hot, winning five straight going into the week. Mason McTavish has been a big part of that, scoring five goals and eight points during the run, which brings him up to 12 points through 10 contests this season. I don’t expect him to maintain his offensive pace, but he should easily surpass his 43-point rookie finish.

Ryan Strome is hot too, contributing two goals and eight points over his last eight outings. He did miss Wednesday’s contest, but don’t worry about that -- it was just an illness, so he should play Tuesday.

In net, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Anaheim continue to lean heavily on Lukas Dostal, who has started in the last three contests. His GAA isn’t great (2.80), but he has a fantastic save percentage (.920), and with the quality of the Ducks competition this week, Dostal has a solid chance of picking up another two wins.

Dallas Stars

The Stars have a busy week ahead of them. First, they’ll host the Bruins on Monday, then they’ll make stops in Columbus on Thursday, Winnipeg on Saturday and Minnesota on Sunday.

Dallas is off to a 7-2-1 start, partially thanks to its deep offense. Even Matt Duchene, who was scoreless over his first four contests with the Stars, settled in, recording a five-game point streak from Oct. 24-Nov. 2 (two goals, three assists). However, he exited Saturday’s game after sustaining an upper-body injury on a high hit from Vancouver’s Ian Cole, so his status for Monday’s outing is in question.

Radek Faksa is also dealing with an upper-body injury, and if both miss time, then Sam Steel might have an opportunity to serve in a middle-six role and even get some power-play ice time. Steel isn’t a major offensive force, but that opportunity is worth keeping in mind, given Dallas’ packed schedule. If Duchene is healthy, though, he’d be worth leaning on given his recent play.

Digging deeper, Mason Marchment has some short-term value. The middle-six forward’s looked strong lately, collecting two goals and four points over his last five appearances.

Florida Panthers

The Panthers have been up-and-down thus far, earning wins against strong competition like New Jersey on Oct. 16, Toronto on Oct. 19 and Detroit on Nov. 2 while also being one of just two teams to deny Boston a regulation-time victory (Florida lost 3-2 in overtime Monday). However, the Panthers also suffered a 5-2 loss to the lowly Blackhawks on Saturday and are 5-4-1 overall.

This week will be a test for the Panthers with home games against Columbus, Carolina and Chicago on Monday, Friday and Sunday, respectively, as well as a road match versus Washington on Wednesday. Those are all winnable games. Carolina (7-5-0) and Washington (5-4-1) do have PTS% over .500, but not by much.

Anton Lundell should make for a good pickup this week. The 22-year-old was held off the scoresheet for the first five contests of the campaign, but he’s provided a goal and three points over his last five games. His increased production goes hand-in-hand with added responsibility, jumping from an average of 13:27 of ice time during his slump to 16:41 over his last five outings.

It might also be a big week for Sergei Bobrovsky, who has a 4-3-1 record, 2.51 GAA and .913 save percentage through eight appearances this year. This week’s contests are spread out enough that he could start in all four, which might be exactly what the Panthers do, given how sparingly they’ve used Anthony Stolarz. It’s also not like Stolarz demanded an expanded role Saturday -- he stopped 19 of 23 shots in a 5-2 loss to Chicago.

New York Rangers

The Rangers will look to build off their incredible 8-2-1 start with a home stretch against Detroit on Tuesday, Minnesota on Thursday and Columbus on Sunday. The Red Wings have done well themselves (7-4-1), but the Wild and Blue Jackets are off to mediocre starts.

It will be a challenging stretch for New York, though, because Adam Fox (lower body) and Filip Chytil (upper body) were hurt Thursday and will not be an option this week. Their absence forces the Rangers to make significant changes, particularly on the power play.

Erik Gustafsson is now likely to serve on the top power-play unit, so his fantasy value will go up meaningfully during Fox’s absence.

Meanwhile, without Chytil, Blake Wheeler might see time on the second power-play unit. Wheeler has been used sparingly by New York -- just an average of 11:58 per game -- and he consequently has just one assist through 11 contests. The 37-year-old finished the 2022-23 campaign with 16 goals and 55 points in 72 outings, though, so even in the tail end of his career, he can still chip in offensively under the right circumstances.

Artemi Panarin should still run the show, though. He has six goals and 18 points in 11 contests this year and is showing no signs of slowing down, providing three goals and 10 points over his last five outings.

San Jose Sharks

The Sharks are obviously bad, but they do have a full schedule this week. They’ll host Philadelphia on Tuesday and Edmonton on Thursday before visiting Vegas on Friday and Anaheim on Sunday.

If that schedule belonged to any other team, I wouldn’t hesitate to include them, but is there anyone playing for San Jose who has fantasy value? Certainly not its goaltenders, who have combined for a 4.75 GAA and an .873 save percentage.

What about on offense? San Jose has averaged 1.09 goals per game, so the pickings are slim there too. However, Tomas Hertl did have two assists Saturday, bringing him up to a goal and seven points in 11 contests. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him do some damage this week, particularly against Edmonton’s shaky goaltending.

Anthony Duclair might be worthy of a short-term pickup as well. He has just two goals and three points in 11 contests, but he’s not far removed from his 58-point campaign in 2021-22. Plus, the upside of being with San Jose is he does get a solid amount of playing time, including first power-play unit responsibilities.

Keep an eye on William Eklund too. The 21-year-old has just a goal and an assist, but the 2021 seventh-overall pick does have considerable upside and is getting top-six minutes.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning will complete their four-game road trip with visits to Toronto and Montreal on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Then they’ll spend some time at home while facing the Blackhawks on Thursday and the Hurricanes on Saturday.

Outside of Tampa Bay’s usual suspects, Alex Barre-Boulet is doing very well, collecting three goals and six points over his last six outings. The 26-year-old is an interesting one because he was never drafted and had just nine points in 32 contests going into this campaign. However, he earned this opportunity by excelling in the AHL, finishing the 2022-23 campaign with 24 goals and 84 points in 69 appearances with Syracuse, and has shown that his skills can translate to the top level. Barre-Boulet is averaging just 13:14 of ice time, but some of that’s with Nikita Kucherov, so if he’s available in your league, he’s worth taking a chance on.

If you could use a source of hits, Tanner Jeannot can fill that role during the Lightning’s busy week. He has 34 hits in 11 contests thus far and should maintain that aggressive play. Jeannot will probably continue getting into trouble, too, after accumulating 13 PIM this campaign. On the offensive side, he’s not a huge asset, but his two goals and five points are respectable for this stage of the season, and the 26-year-old consistently plays on the second power-play unit.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto has dropped its last four games, bringing its record down to 5-4-2. That’s not so bad that it’s time to panic -- The Maple Leafs started 4-4-2 last year en route to a 50-21-11 campaign -- but it’s fair to say some serious questions about the team’s viability as contenders have been raised.

They’ll have an opportunity to step up this week with a key home stretch featuring the Lightning on Monday, Senators on Wednesday, Flames on Friday and Canucks on Saturday. While those aren’t easy teams, though Calgary is 3-7-1, playing at home should help.

What would help more is if the supporting cast stepped up for the Leafs. The Core Four of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitchell Marner and John Tavares have done their part, combining for an incredible 26 goals. That’s more goals than the entirety of the Blues or Capitals and more than double the Sharks.

The rest of the forward core is a barren wasteland, though. Matthew Knies has just two goals and four points, Max Domi has four helpers and Tyler Bertuzzi has two markers and three points.

Calle Jarnkrok is showing a bit of life, though. He has a goal and five points this campaign but has registered a point in back-to-back contests. The Leafs have been doing so line juggling, but Jarnkrok has seen time recently alongside Matthews and Marner, which certainly helps his potential value. If you’re going to gamble on any non-star Toronto player, Jarnkrok seems like the best bet right now.

Bertuzzi might be a good buy-low candidate. He’s struggled to find his rhythm with Toronto, but he’s a capable top-six forward who should turn things around. He certainly has reason to want more out of himself, given that he’s playing on a one-year contract.

Vancouver Canucks

Vancouver will start the week hosting the struggling Oilers before facing Ottawa, Toronto and Montreal on the road on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday, respectively. The Canucks are off to an 8-2-1 start and on a three-game winning streak, so they couldn’t be much hotter entering this batch of contests.

Elias Pettersson is leading the offense with six goals and 20 points in 11 contests this campaign, while defenseman Quinn Hughes isn’t far behind, providing four goals and 16 points. However, Vancouver also has gotten help up and down the lineup.

Filip Hronek is on a six-game point streak and has collected 11 helpers this year. He’ll slow down at some point, but for now, he’s a great component to any fantasy team.

If Ilya Mikheyev is still available in your league, he’s worth scooping up over the short term. Mikheyev has never recorded more than 32 points in a single campaign, but injuries are a big part of the reason why. He also missed the start of the 2023-24 campaign after undergoing ACL surgery in January, but since returning, he’s provided three goals and six points in seven outings. He’s been playing alongside Pettersson, and as long as that remains the case, Mikheyev should be productive.

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MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – ANAHEIM DUCKS – Top 20 Prospect Profiles – Organizational Rank #2 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2023-24-nhl-yearbook-anaheim-ducks-top-20-prospect-profiles-organizational-rank-2/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2023-24-nhl-yearbook-anaheim-ducks-top-20-prospect-profiles-organizational-rank-2/#respond Wed, 20 Sep 2023 13:44:48 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=181919 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – ANAHEIM DUCKS – Top 20 Prospect Profiles – Organizational Rank #2

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Anaheim Ducks Top 20 Prospects 
MONTREAL, QC - JULY 07: Anaheim Ducks pick Pavel Mintyukov shakes Gary Bettman hand during the first round of the 2022 NHL Entry Draft on July 07, 2022 at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)
1. Leo Carlsson - C

Probably one of the most NHL-ready players coming out of the 2023 draft, it was clear that the well-built 6’3” forward was a certainty to be selected between the 2nd and 6th overall pick this summer. But when Anaheim announced his name as the second overall pick, there was a sense of surprise in the air at Bridgestone Arena. The selection becomes less surprising when one considers that Carlsson has been playing SHL hockey since he was a wiry 16-year-old putting up 3-6-9 (G-A-P) numbers in 35 SHL games while already statistically dominating Sweden’s U20 circuit. Now ranked as Anaheim’s top prospect, Carlsson is coming off a year in which his 10-15-25 numbers in 44 regular season games had him only behind Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Elias Lindholm, and Niklas Backstrom (just barely) for the best ever season among first year draft-eligible players in Sweden’s top league pro league. He then proceeded to add nine playoff points to his totals. His season was further rounded off by another 3-3-6 and +5 numbers over seven WJC contests before checking in with 3-2-5 over eight games at the men’s WC. With an ELC in his pocket, a full-time move to North America could happen as soon as this fall.

2. Pavel Mintyukov - LW

The Ducks are surely over the moon that they were able to land a prospect of Mintyukov' caliber with the 10th overall pick in the 2022 draft. Not only does he possess an enormous amount of raw skill, but he also has an ideal frame and doesn't have any significant weaknesses. He went from playing on a high-flying, firewagon Saginaw team to a much more structured Ottawa club, finishing the season leading all OHL defenders in assists (64) and points (88) and winning the Max Kaminsky Trophy as the OHL’s Most Outstanding Defenseman. He shines the brightest with his offensive play and boy does he shine bright, but with the right development work he could become a premiere off-puck defender as well. If he reaches his full ceiling, he will be a true number-one defenseman who logs boatloads of ice time and contributes significantly on both sides of special teams.

3. Lukas Dostal - G

Sometimes playing on a bad team — or even two bad teams — can have its advantages. Both the Ducks and their AHL-affiliate San Diego Gulls squads struggled last season, which made it easier to give more starts to their hotshot young netminder to see what he can do. As it turns out, Dostal can do a lot, even with little to work with. That's not exactly a surprise, given his prior success in Europe, but it's been strongly reinforced more recently. His stats and record last season don't tell the whole story, as he faced high quantity – many of which were high quality - shots at both levels, pulling out some heroic performances to keep games close and even steal a few wins. He's fast, flexible, and does a great job of being controlled with his movements. His mental game is sharp and focused, while also equally competitive and calm. After getting 19 NHL games last season, look for Dostal to make the permanent jump this campaign.

4. Olen Zellweger - D

When you're a small defenseman you have to be very good in multiple areas in order to be successful in the NHL. Luckily for Zellweger (and the Ducks), not only is he good in multiple areas, but he’s also flat-out exceptional in them. His ability to see the ice and read the play in front of him is almost unparalleled for his age group, and he applies that across all 200 feet of ice, whether that's breaking pucks out of his own end, carrying them through the neutral zone, or picking spots to attack offensively. He's poised under pressure but can also unleash a killer instinct. The two-time winner of the WHL’s Top Defenseman Trophy and 2022-23 CHL Defender of the Year, Zellweger is poised to step into the pros and continue standing out.

5. Tristan Luneau - D

Luneau was the first overall pick in the 2020 QMJHL draft, and it's fair to say that he didn't quite live up to those expectations in his first two years in the league. However, the foundation was always there for him to break out, and he did that in a huge way last season, exploding for a team-high 83 points in 65 games and leading Gatineau to one of the best records in the league, resulting in him being named the QMJHL Defenseman of the Year. There's so much to like about his game: his hockey sense is impressive, he has size and reach, his footwork is clean and mechanically sound, he's dangerous with the puck, and he relishes being a leader and top player on his team. There are a lot of different directions where his game can evolve from here.

6. Nathan Gaucher - C

Gaucher plays a very specific style of hockey and fills a very specific kind of role, but his value comes from the fact that he's one of the best prospects in all of junior hockey who regularly takes on that kind of workload and assignment. He's a shutdown center through and through, with everything that entails including lots of penalty killing, closing out leads late in games, taking important faceoffs, defensive matchups against the top players on opposing teams, and dishing out some snarl and physical punishment. All of it culminated in him being named the Best Defensive Forward in the QMJHL last season en route to QMJHL and Memorial Cup championships. He scored at a point-per-game clip in the QMJHL, but that won't be a big part of his game at higher levels. What Gaucher does might not be glamorous work, but he was a first-round pick by the Ducks and appeared in two World Juniors with Canada because he makes a big difference with how he plays.

7. Jacob Perreault - RW

Perrault had a choice of where to play during the 2021-22 season: stay in the AHL under the continued transfer exemption caused by COVID-19, or head back to the OHL. He chose to stay in the AHL and after a season of seemingly stalled progression you may wonder if it was the wrong choice. His raw natural ability in the offensive zone has always been apparent, especially as someone who can finish plays by getting the puck into the back of the net. The questions have always been about his all-around play and transitioning his scoring from a junior style to more of a professional style. As of right now, those questions remain unanswered. In fairness, some injury troubles and a bad team around him haven't helped. There is still untapped potential with Perreault, but the path is steeper than it was previously.

8. Jackson Lacombe - D

LaCombe's 2022-23 season ended in heartbreak, as his top-ranked University of Minnesota team was eliminated in the Frozen Four championship game by Quinnipiac. Even worse, he was on the ice for the overtime goal that sealed it. But you can't fault him for the loss, because he played his heart out, including blocking a shot with his face earlier in the game. That's not a fun way to end an NCAA career, but he is more than ready now to turn pro. Heck, he might even jump straight into the Ducks lineup, because the roster space is certainly there. He is an impressive skater, two-way contributor, fierce competitor, and natural leader, all of which are always valued in the NHL. He doesn't project as a true power play quarterback, but he'll be a guy who finds ways to produce points from the back end.

9. Tyson Hinds - D

Hinds had size and athleticism going for him in his draft year, while the other main elements of his game were still works in progress. But work on them he did, with the help of Anaheim's development staff. A season and a half later he made Canada's roster for the World Juniors, which is an impressive amount of growth for the former third-round pick. The Ducks selected him for his long-term upside, but this much growth this quickly probably surprises even them. The current package he brings is very enticing, adding much-improved puck skill and 200-foot play to his existing size and athleticism. Defensemen like Hinds eat a lot of minutes because they are so versatile. His floor is very high, and the ceiling keeps looking higher and higher as time goes on.

10. Nico Myatovic - LW

Myatovic's game is built primarily around strength and power, and he has an abundance of both. There aren't many, if any, better forecheckers in all of junior hockey. He chases after dump-ins with the momentum of a runaway freight train, and if he can't cleanly win the footrace to the puck, he's more than happy to land a crushing body check or use his long reach to disrupt the opposing defender's attempt at escaping. He's also an expert at killing penalties and defending empty net situations for similar reasons, aggressively applying pressure high in the zone and routinely forcing the puck out and down the ice. It's not like he's a black hole offensively, either. He can handle the puck well enough at full speed to contribute on the rush, and he is legitimately dangerous around the goal mouth because he does such a great job fighting to get there and then to stay there. The way he plays isn't glamorous, but he brings a lot of value to a roster, as evidenced by how much of a difference-maker he was with the Seattle Thunderbirds in their 2023 WHL championship run.

11. Carey Terrance - C

A versatile forward who brings an element of speed, Terrance plays a high energy, two-way game but has upside as a scorer. He returns to the Erie Otters this year as part of a strong, young group on the upswing.

12. Drew Helleson - D

A defense first defender who just completed his first pro year and even got in a few games with Anaheim. With his length and mobility from the right side, Helleson profiles as a steady #4-5 who can anchor a penalty kill and pair well with an aggressive offensive type. He could challenge for a roster spot this year.

13. Noah Warren - D

Recently moved to Victoriaville, the move should help Warren gain more offensive responsibility to help him round out his profile in his final junior season. The former high pick still profiles as a physical, stay-at-home type and still has top four upside.

14. Coulson Pitre - RW

A recent 3rd round selection by the Ducks, Pitre is a competitive, complementary winger. His hockey sense is a major strength and it allows him to pair well with higher skilled play drivers, as he opens up space for them. Should be a go-to offensive player in Flint (OHL) this year.

15. Sasha Pastujov - RW

The real test for Pastujov begins this coming season at the pro level. He has torched the OHL but there are still concerns over his lack of pace and overall skating affecting his transition to the next level. The upside is still high, and this season should give us an indication of how far away he truly is.

16. Calle Clang - G

Acquired from Pittsburgh in the Rakell trade, Clang got his first, small taste of the AHL last year and will continue with San Diego full time in 2023-24. He is unquestionably Anaheim’s top goaltending prospect after Dostal right now and will be given ample time to continue developing.

17. Benoit Olivier Groulx - C

Time is running out for Groulx, a former high selection and QMJHL star. He is no longer exempt from waivers and this upcoming training camp will be a huge one for him. His offensive game has yet to truly develop at the pro level, but he can still offer value as a defensively oriented checker on the bottom lines.

18. Ian Moore - D

Moore, an athletic two-way defender, has progressed well at Harvard through his first two years in college. He is returning for his junior year and the Ducks will be looking for him to take another step offensively. He still likely projects as more of a Drew Helleson-esque stay at home type.

19. Brayden Tracey - LW

This upcoming season will be a huge one for the former first round pick. A talented goal scorer, Tracey’s offensive production at the AHL level has been disappointing thus far. He has had trouble adjusting to the pace of the pro game. His days in the system could be numbered if he does not take a step forward this year.

20. Sam Colangelo - RW

Colangelo is hoping that a transfer to Western Michigan (from Northeastern) for his senior year can help him unlock his potential as a dominant two-way winger. He uses his size well to be disruptive and to protect the puck, but his on-puck play and production has remained inconsistent. He still has middle six upside.

 

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MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK: The Top 24 Calder Trophy Candidates for 2024 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2023-24-nhl-yearbook-top-24-calder-trophy-candidates-2024/ https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/mckeens-2023-24-nhl-yearbook-top-24-calder-trophy-candidates-2024/#respond Wed, 13 Sep 2023 23:27:38 +0000 https://www.mckeenshockey.com/?p=181882 Read More... from MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK: The Top 24 Calder Trophy Candidates for 2024

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  • Connor Bedard. Photo by Keith Hershmiller.

    Connor Bedard - Chicago Blackhawks

  • The Hawks have insulated the recent first overall pick with some veteran wingers to help his transition to the NHL. They won’t get in the way of Bedard receiving all the ice time that he can handle. For that reason, in combination with his insanely high talent level, Bedard has to be entering the season as the favourite to capture this year’s Calder trophy.

    2. Logan Cooley - Arizona Coyotes

    Cooley was thought to be returning to the University of Minnesota for his sophomore season despite being nominated for the Hobey Baker award. But a midsummer change of heart had him turn pro and now he’s poised to push Connor Bedard as the frontrunner for the Calder. Cooley likely steps right into Arizona’s lineup as their first line center and his rookie season should end up being pretty similar to Matty Beniers’ Calder winning performance from last year.

    3. Luke Hughes - New Jersey Devils

    In New Jersey’s final game of the season last year, a 3-2 loss against Carolina in the playoffs, Hughes played over 25 minutes. This was only a month after signing with the Devils. That tells you all you need to know about how New Jersey sees Hughes as an immediate piece of their roster. Even with Dougie Hamilton likely holding down the top powerplay QB spot, Hughes should still get his share of opportunity.

    4. Adam Fantilli - Columbus Blue Jackets

    Was there ever any doubt that the recent third overall pick and Hobey Baker winner would turn pro this season? I don’t believe so. No offence to Boone Jenner and Jack Roslovic, but there’s a very real chance that Fantilli enters the coming season as Columbus’ first line center. The opportunity is ripe for him to be among the leading Calder candidates.

    NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 10: Buffalo Sabres Goalie Devon Levi (27) blocks a shot on goal during the National Hockey League game between the Buffalo Sabres and the New York Rangers on April 10, 2023 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)

    5. Devon Levi - Buffalo Sabres

    All eyes were on Buffalo this offseason to see if they would bring in a veteran goaltender to help the Sabres take that next step as a playoff team. They did not. That means that the starter’s job is Devon Levi’s to lose. It was evident when he signed (and subsequently started all the important games down the stretch), but Buffalo seems content with that. We’ve had a goalie finish in the top five of Calder voting the last five seasons and Levi certainly looks to have the best chance to be that guy this season.

    6. Brandt Clarke - Los Angeles Kings

    Similar to Luke Hughes’ situation in New Jersey, Clarke’s powerplay time is blocked by a veteran in Drew Doughty. However, that doesn’t mean that Clarke can’t be a productive offensive player and be afforded unique opportunities to impact the game offensively. There’s still a path for him to crack the team’s top four and Clarke is talented enough to be an impact player at even strength.

    7. Luke Evangelista - Nashville Predators

    Even with the signings of Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist, the Predators should still have room for Evangelista in their top nine, especially given how well he played late last season. He has 15 points in 24 games, narrowly keeping his Calder eligibility. It might be shocking to see him ranked this high, but among rookies who played more than 20 games last year, only Matty Beniers, Matias Maccelli, and Lukas Reichel had more points per game.

    8. Shane Wright - Seattle Kraken

    Part of me is skeptical that Wright should be ranked this highly given Seattle’s sudden surge as a playoff contender and the likelihood that they remain patient with his development. That said, Wright is one of the top prospects outside of the NHL for a reason. If he comes to camp and performs well, they’ll find a spot and role for him in their top nine.

    9. Marco Rossi - Minnesota Wild

    Rossi struggled mightily in his 19-game stint in the NHL last year, but he was an impact player in the AHL with Iowa. A notoriously hard worker, Rossi should come back hungry for a permanent spot this season and there are some forward spots, especially down the middle, up for grabs in Minnesota. Should he crack the top nine, he’ll be flanked by some pretty good wingers and would have a chance to be among the league’s rookie scoring leaders.

    10. Lukas Dostal - Anaheim Ducks

    Dostal’s likelihood of being a Calder contender will depend on what Anaheim decides to do with John Gibson. Do they move on from Gibson at some point this year, giving the keys to the starter’s role to Dostal, one of the team’s top prospects? He played OK in 19 games last year as Gibson’s back-up, however is Anaheim likely to be good enough to help Dostal post the kind of stats needed to be a Calder candidate?

    TORONTO, ON - APRIL 27: Toronto Maple Leafs Winger Matthew Knies (23) skates with the puck during the Round 1 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Game 5 between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs on April 27, 2023, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

    11. Matthew Knies - Toronto Maple Leafs

    Knies probably would have been higher on this list if not for the signings of Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi. Knies was a standout in limited action late last year after signing his ELC and the thought was that he could end up playing the Michael Bunting role this year alongside Austen Matthews, however, that appears to be more of a stretch now. Still, Knies deserves mention here as someone who could still play a solid role for a good team.

    12. Kevin Korchinski - Chicago Blackhawks

    If Korchinki plays well in camp, he seems all but destined to crack the Chicago roster this year, a team thin on the back end. While Seth Jones is likely to swallow up a lot of powerplay time, the Blackhawks would be wise to create opportunities for him if they keep him. Korchinski is incredibly talented, so if he gets ice time, he should put up points.

    13. David Jiricek - Columbus Blue Jackets

    This is a tough one. On paper, there just isn’t much room for Jiricek. The Jackets brought in Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov this offseason and Zach Werenski will be returning from a shoulder injury. But the former 6th overall pick was so good in the AHL last year with Cleveland. If he comes to camp and looks ready, the Jackets are likely to make room for him.

    14. Pavel Mintyukov - Anaheim Ducks

    Speaking of opportunities on the back end, don’t look for the likes of Colton White or Robert Hagg to block Mintyukov if he performs well in camp. Powerplay time might be a different animal altogether with Cam Fowler and Jamie Drysdale around, but there is a clear opportunity here for Mintyukov to get significant ice time. Like some of the other defenders on this list, Mintyukov is simply too talented to ignore.

    15. Tyson Foerster - Philadelphia Flyers

    Foerster has a very clear opportunity to earn a spot inside the top six of the Flyers this season, especially after performing so well in a cup of coffee last year. His game has improved by leaps and bounds in the last calendar year and he is someone who could be among the league’s leading rookie scorers at season’s end.

    CLEVELAND, OH - DECEMBER 03: Rochester Americans right wing Jiri Kulich (25) on the ice during the first period of the American Hockey League game between the Rochester Americans and Cleveland Monsters on December 3, 2022, at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

    16. Jiri Kulich - Buffalo Sabres

    Is there actually a spot for Kulich on this year’s Sabres? I’m pretty skeptical. But all it takes is one injury and Kulich would be the first guy up after his tremendous AHL rookie season and Calder Cup playoff performance. If he can find a way into the top nine or on the secondary powerplay unit, he could produce some solid numbers. The likelihood is low, but the upside is so, so high.

    17. Matthew Coronato - Calgary Flames

    It seems very likely that one of Coronato or Jakob Pelletier will get an opportunity to play a significant role with the Flames this year. There is room and likely even that expectation. One might think Pelletier would have the leg up given his pro experience, but Coronato is the better player, in my opinion and this ranking reflects that.

    18. Fabian Lysell - Boston Bruins

    There is still so much uncertainty surrounding the Bruins this year as of writing this. Will Bergeron be back? How much do they expect Van Riemsdyk, Geekie, or Lucic to contribute? Lysell’s first pro season was incredibly erratic. Maybe Merkulov would have the inside track at a spot over Lysell? However, Lysell’s a hyped, high selection with a ton of talent. If he makes the team, it would be in a significant role and that would likely mean a chance at significant production.

    19. Pavel Dorofeyev - Vegas Golden Knights

    After scoring seven goals in 18 games last year, during a short stint, there’s no way that Dorofeyev does not crack the Vegas roster this year in some capacity. This is especially true given that he would require waivers in order to be sent to the AHL. That kind of production stretched out to a full season would be a 30-goal season. That’s obviously far-fetched, but not completely outside of the realm of possibility.

    20. Ridly Greig - Ottawa Senators

    Can Josh Norris bounce back and maintain his health? That’s one question bound to be prevalent at Ottawa training camp this year. One of the main beneficiaries of Norris’ injury was Greig, who had a very good first pro season split between Ottawa and Belleville. It seems very likely that Greig will make the Senators full time in some capacity, but just how much of a role he’ll have remains to be seen.

    21. Jakob Pelletier - Calgary Flames

    As mentioned, it seems very likely that one of Coronato or Pelletier finds themselves with a significant role in Calgary’s offense this year. Pelletier’s 24 games last year make him just barely eligible still and, at this point, he’s proven all he can at the AHL level as an offensive leader. Thus far he has struggled to make that jump, but this year could be very different.

    22. Leo Carlsson - Anaheim Ducks

    This ranking represents the fact that I believe it is most likely that Carlsson will return to the SHL for another season with Orebro before making the jump to Anaheim. The recent second overall pick would be much higher if it were likely that he would stick with the Ducks. However, Anaheim has no reason to rush him and allowing him to return to the SHL to become a dominant player there first seems like the best spot for his development.

    23. Pyotr Kochetkov - Carolina Hurricanes

    While Kochetkov is no longer eligible for our top prospect list (due to games played), he is somehow still barely eligible for the Calder. Carolina’s top young netminder will need a lot to go his way (in terms of injuries to veterans or poor play from them) to play enough to be in the conversation, however, if he does play enough…he could be a top contender.

    24. Raphael Lavoie - Edmonton Oilers

    The last player to make this list, look for Lavoie to push for a roster spot in Edmonton this year, likely over the more hyped Xavier Bourgault. Lavoie’s development took a very positive turn in the second half of last year’s AHL season and he could very easily find himself in Edmonton’s top nine to start the year.

    Honourable Mentions: Marco Kasper (DET), Simon Nemec (NJ), Joakim Kemell (NSH), Simon Edvinsson (DET), Brock Faber (MIN), Hendrix Lapierre (WSH), Ryker Evans (SEA), Cole Guttman (CHI), Danil Gushchin (SJ), David Reinbacher (MTL), Aatu Raty (VAN), Yegor Sokolov (OTT), Dalibor Dvorsky (STL)

     

     

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