Luke Glendening – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Player Profiles + Team Preview – Scott Cullen, Goaltending – Catherine Silverman — Mon, 09 Oct 2023 19:01:32 +0000

Review: For the first time since 2018-2019, the Lightning did not reach the Stanley Cup Final, losing in the first round to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Tampa Bay had 98 points and was better than average in terms of possession, controlling 51.7% of score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts and 52.2% of expected goals, but better than average also revealed signs of vulnerability. Even so, the Lightning averaged 3.45 goals per game, which ranked eighth, and they allowed 3.10 goals against per game, which ranked 14^th. None of this indicates massive problems, but it does reflect a team that might not be at the same level as when they were making annual trips to the Stanley Cup Final.

What’s Changed? Keeping the Stanley Cup core gets increasingly difficult over time and the Lightning have been forced to make roster decisions based on salary cap commitments. This summer, that meant watching Alex Killorn, Corey Perry, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare leave as free agents while trading Ross Colton and Pat Maroon. Trying to fill those holes inexpensively, Tampa Bay brought in Conor Sheary, Josh Archibald, Luke Glendening, and Logan Brown, which would seem to be a downgrade, but it might also open the door for some prospects to challenge for regular roles, something that has not happened a lot with the Lightning in recent seasons. On defense, veteran Calvin de Haan adds solid depth to a unit that has much more continuity.

What would success look like? After reaching three straight Stanley Cup Finals, winning two, the Lightning are hardly going to settle for something less than a Cup Finals appearance, even if that is increasingly less likely. They still have elite talent, and the core pieces of those Stanley Cup teams. However, every loss of supporting players like Killorn, Colton, and Ondrej Palat the previous summer makes it that much harder for the Lightning to stay on top. The stars are the ones that drive results, but Cup winners have a strong supporting cast and it’s fair to wonder if the Lightning even warrant legitimate Stanley Cup hopes given the quality of their current supporting cast.

What could go wrong? While Tampa Bay appears to have too much talent to flop entirely, with a lot of key players on the north side of 30, there is the possibility that injuries could loom large for Tampa Bay. Certainly, any injury to goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy would be a concern because the Lightning continue the shop the bargain bin for backup goaltenders, landing on Jonas Johansson this season, but if injuries hit Nikita Kucherov, or Steven Stamkos, or Victor Hedman – core players who are all over 30 – that could present a significant challenge. These are first-world hockey problems, worrying about what might happen if more than one of your superstars gets injured.

Top Breakout Candidate: The Lightning do not have unproven players in prime positions so any breakout expectations should be tempered. However, winger Michael Eyssimont is worth watching. He split last season between Winnipeg, San Jose, and Tampa Bay, managing 15 points in 54 games, but he also had 107 hits and 124 shots on goal. That physical play is likely going to earn Eyssimont a regular spot in Tampa Bay’s top nine, but if he starts scoring on more than four percent of his shots, he could really start to provide some value. The opportunity is there for Eyssimont to not only secure a full-time NHL job, but for him to play a substantial role.

Forwards

Nikita Kucherov

Coming off his third career season with more than 100 points, Kucherov is a premier scoring winger, an elite setup man in every respect. His creativity and vision are special, and he plays with a confidence that allows him to make plays that are only possible at the very top end of the league. He also plays with a nastiness that gives him a competitive edge. Since 2017-2018, Kucherov has 495 points in 359 games, his 1.38 points per game ranking second behind only Connor McDavid. He has scored 160 points in 142 career playoff games, so he does not shrink away when the games matter most. As great as Kucherov is, his 11.1% shooting percentage last season was his lowest since his rookie season in 2013-2014 and his defensive play is not exactly going to earn him Selke Trophy votes. When he is firing on all cylinders, though, Kucherov is too much for most defenders to handle. For example, from November 17th through December 17th last season, he tallied 24 points (5 G, 19 A) in just 14 games. While Connor McDavid has to be the favorite to lead the league in scoring in 2023-2024, Kucherov is as worthy of consideration as any other contender for the Art Ross Trophy.

Brayden Point

An established star who has been an integral part of Tampa Bay’s playoff success, Point erupted for the most productive season of his career, scoring 51 goals and 95 points, both of which were career highs. He scored on a career high 21.7% of his shots, while registering a career high 2.87 shots per game, so it is not as though Point is a high-volume shooter, but he has always been a high percentage finisher, scoring on better than 15.0% of his shots in each of the past five seasons. Point has a quick release and makes the most of his role in the bumper position on the Tampa Bay power play, scoring 20 of his 51 goals last season with the man advantage. Playing with Kucherov is obviously a great spot to be for a player who can pull the trigger like Point, and he finished last season with 53 points (28 G, 25 A) in his last 42 games. It is fascinating to see how productive Point has been in the playoffs, with 82 points (40 G, 42 A) in 82 playoff games, and how he has had two seasons with 90-plus points, but then has seasons with point totals in the 50s and 60s. That does suggest some caution when looking ahead for Point, but an 80-point season should be well within his grasp.

Steven Stamkos

At 33 years old, Stamkos continues to churn out points, putting up 84 points (34 G, 50 A) in 81 games last season. He did record 35 points on the power play and his possession numbers during five-on-five play showed signs of slipping. His shot release is one of the most dangerous in the league, but it is reasonable to wonder if there might be some decline on the way given his age and the injuries that he has endured during a career of more than 1,003 games during which he has scored 515 goals. Stamkos had an 11-game point streak in January, during which he had 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 46 shots on goal. If he would keep generating shots like that, the goals would never stop. However, he is still in a position to contribute big offensive numbers and that means that 35 goals and 80-plus points is within a reasonable range. The supporting cast in Tampa Bay is part of the calculation, too. It would be easier for Stamkos to keep producing at an elite level if he always played with Kucherov and Point, but he spent significant time with Alex Killorn and Nick Paul, and Anthony Cirelli, too.

Brandon Hagel

An energy winger in Chicago who has thrived since arriving in Tampa Bay where he has been playing in a scoring role, Hagel set career highs with 30 goals and 64 points last season, and he makes the most of the great opportunity to play with Kucherov and Point. Hagel has good speed in transition and is not shy about getting to the front of the net when the Lightning have control of the puck in the offensive zone. Considering the way that Kucherov distributes the puck, that is a good idea. Because he is not necessarily the play driver on that number one line, Hagel’s production can fluctuate. In the last 16 games of the regular season, he had 14 points (7 G, 7 A), even though he had a seven-game scoreless streak in the midst of that span of games. Hagel is an interesting player to project because he has scored on 16.1% of his shots in his career, which is rather high, but he has played 211 games, which is not a huge sample. On the other hand, he plays mostly with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, so that could contribute to creating better chances and higher shooting percentages. He may not match last season’s output, but 25-30 goals and 55-60 points should still be within range for Hagel.

Anthony Cirelli

At his best, Cirelli is a premier defensive center who can contribute on the offensive end, too. He missed the start of the season due to shoulder surgery and had a 20-game stretch during which he managed just four points, but he also had six points (3 G, 3 A) in six playoff games. Even with some ups and downs during the season, the Lightning outscored opponents 35-22 with Cirelli on the ice for five-on-five play. Cirelli has twice finished in the top five in Selke voting and, when healthy, the 26-year-old is a legitimate contender for the award as the league’s top defensive forward. Strangely enough, given his earned reputation, Cirelli was at least as effective offensively as he was defensively last season, which is not the case when he is giving his peak defensive performance, but starting the season late likely didn’t help matters. Cirelli can reasonably be expected to put up 35-40 points, though there is potential for more. If he is healthy for a full season and play a lot with Stamkos, for example, that might offer better scoring potential.

Nick Paul

Anchoring Tampa Bay’s third line, Paul scored a career high 17 goals and tied his career high with 32 points. He has good size and plays a physical game in addition to winning 53.7% of his faceoffs. While he is a strong defensive presence, Paul’s offensive game is limited, and that puts a ceiling on what kind of impact he can have overall. At the same time, Paul is exactly the kind of big-body physically strong player that the Lightning want on their third line and has played more than 16 minutes per game for three straight seasons, so he has established himself firmly in this role. Paul got off to a sensational start last season, producing 18 points (11 G, 7 A) in his first 23 games, but he followed that up with eight points (5 G, 3 A) in his next 30 games. His straight-ahead game has definite benefits, but it does contribute to his uninspiring offensive numbers. Paul should continue in the same range as his recent seasons, so somewhere between 30 and 35 points is a reasonable expectation.

Tanner Jeannot

After an impressive rookie season in 2021-2022, when he scored 24 goals, Jeannot was one of the most snakebit players in the league last season, finishing with six goals on 107 shots in 76 games. The Lightning paid a steep price to acquire Jeannot and while he managed just four points (1 G, 3 A) in 20 games for Tampa Bay, he also suffered a high ankle sprain late in the season and tried to play through it. He is as strong as an ox and that powerful base is the cornerstone of his game. The 26-year-old winger has recorded 608 hits in the past two seasons, 90 more than any other forward over that period. Jeannot is probably a decent buy-low option going into 2023-2024, because it would be difficult to struggle to that degree again – he had a 38-game goalless drought! – and he is due for percentages to swing back in his favor. A bounce-back season for Jeannot could still mean as few as 30-35 points, which would be a big jump from the 18 points he had in 76 games in 2022-2023, but maybe with good health, he could climb the depth chart and offer more than that.

Conor Sheary

An undersized winger who filled a secondary scoring role in Washington the past two seasons, Sheary could have an opportunity to play a quality complementary role in Tampa Bay. Playing more than 15 minutes per game, Sheary has put up 80 points (34 G, 46 A) in 153 games across the past two years, but his possession numbers have been on the wrong side of the ledger, too. He somehow finished with 37 points despite a massive slump. In a 29-game span from January 8 through March19, Sheary had three points (1 G, 2 A). There may be an opportunity for Sheary to fit in a top-six role in Tampa Bay, which would provide a path to continued offensive production. With quality forwards in Tampa Bay, Sheary should still be able to find his way into the range of 35 to 40 points.

Michael Eyssimont

By the time the puck drops on the 2023-2024 season, Eyssimont will be 27 years old and will have 55 NHL games under his belt, 54 of which came last season when he played for Winnipeg, San Jose, and Tampa Bay, so he is a late bloomer to be sure. What makes Eyssimont more interesting than the typical 15-point winger is that, in his small sample of NHL games, he has shown that he can generate shots. Among players that appeared in at least 500 five-on-five minutes Eyssimont ranked ninth with 11.06 shots per 60 minutes. He scored on just 4.0% of those shots, but generating the shots in the first place creates the possibility that his production could get a boost merely with better luck around the net. While he does not have notable size, he plays a physical game and recorded 107 hits in 54 games, so he has a way to earn his spot in the lineup. Although Eyssimont does not have a lot of NHL experience, he has a legit chance to stick in Tampa Bay’s top nine. He has 51 points in 67 AHL games over the past two seasons and could have a chance to produce 25-30 points as a full-time NHLer.

Defense

Victor Hedman

For the first time since 2015-2016, Hedman was not a finalist for the Norris Trophy, and it was justified because his defensive play had slipped compared to previous years. Hedman was still a positive influence on the Lightning but was not the dominant play driving force that had been. He has such rare physical tools, to be able to skate and handle the puck at his size, that Hedman could very easily return to Norris Trophy form, but it bears watching. He is 32 years old and while he is far from finished, it is possible that there is some decline from the top tier elite status that he has been occupying for so long. 2022-2023 was the first time in Hedman’s career that the Lightning fared better in terms of shot attempts when he was off the ice. It was the second time in the past three seasons that the Lightning were better when judged by expected goals with Hedman off the ice. For all of those questions, it can’t be ignored that Hedman has been an elite defender for a long time, so it would be premature to write him off. Losing power play time to Mikhail Sergachev doesn’t help Hedman’s output, but he remains capable of producing 55-60 points.

Mikhail Sergachev

With Hedman’s production slipping, Sergachev stepped up and became the quarterback on the first power play unit for Tampa Bay, scoring 27 of his career-high 64 points with the man advantage. At 25 years old, Sergachev is in his prime, and played a career-high 23:49 per game last season. Not only is he a strong skater who can handle the puck and unleash a heavy shot from the point, but he is sturdy and physical. Sergachev was one of 22 defensemen to record more than 125 hits and 125 blocked shots last season. From that group, Darnell Nurse and Moritz Seider were the only ones with more than 40 points and Sergachev was 20 points clear of both. He finished the season with a scoring flourish, producing 22 points (3 G, 19 A) with 45 shots on goal in his last 18 games. If he is going to put up those numbers, he will continue to hold greater responsibility on the Tampa Bay blueline. Since he is in his prime and did not benefit from lofty percentages last season, another 60-point campaign is a reasonable target for Sergachev.

Nick Perbix

A sixth-round pick who played at St. Cloud State, Perbix was not highly touted, and the right-shot defender landed in the NHL as a 24-year-old rookie last season. From the moment he arrived, though, he did not look out of place and delivered quality third-pair minutes. He is a strong passer who moves the puck up the ice and, generally, the Lightning had success with Perbix on the ice, out-shooting and outscoring the opposition during five-on-five play. The next step is to see if he can handle more responsibility, potentially into a top-four role on the Tampa Bay blueline. With more ice time, in a full season, Perbix could see his point production jump to the range of 25 to 30 points, but he has such a limited track record that he might end up on the third pairing and unlikely to even match last season’s production.

Erik Cernak

A 26-year-old thumper on the Tampa Bay defense, Cernak recorded a career-high 209 hits then got knocked out in the first game of the playoffs thanks to a high hit by Maple Leafs winger Michael Bunting. Cernak has limitations with the puck on his stick, but he is a strong skater and plays such a hard, competitive game that he still offers plenty of value in a top-four shutdown role and has consistently played more than 19 minutes per game throughout his career. One other thing that has been a consistent factor in Cernak’s career is injuries. He played a career-high 70 games last season, so his hard play comes with a price, and while that tends to happen to most physical defensemen, it is not so common for a defenseman in his mid-20s to be sidelined as frequently as Cernak. While he has yet to record a 20-point season in the NHL, Cernak has a chance to get there if he stays healthy. Hits and, to a lesser degree, blocked shots are the counting stats that are going to enhance Cernak’s value.

Goaltending

Andrei Vasilevskiy

The Andrei Vasilevskiy story, by this point in his career, is very much rinse-and-repeat. Vasilevskiy might not be the league’s hottest topic anymore, with shiny new names circulating the Vezina conversation alongside him each year and younger franchises (including one just downstate from Tampa in metro Miami) contending for the cup, but he remains one of the top ten goaltenders year-over-year with no signs of slowing down. It’s not a matter of if he’ll do well, but how well he’ll do; he might not win the Vezina or the Cup, but he’ll make the playoffs and keep his team in games with very little evidence that he’ll do anything to disappoint.

The Lightning almost certainly know that they’ll need to do something about their goaltending situation at some point in the coming years, but they also seem to know that there’s no rush – so they seem content to ride with Vasilevskiy while prospect Hugo Alnefelt develops in the AHL. Their only change this off-season was to move on from a now-underperforming Brian Elliott as the rarely-used number two, instead signing Jonas Johansson as their number two. That could be a sign that Alnefelt is being prepped to get his NHL look, given how poorly Johansson has performed at the NHL level in the past few seasons. But ultimately, there’s not much about Tampa’s upcoming season that warrants discussion beyond reiterating that Vasilevskiy is still their best shot at success; with his dynamic drives and quick hands, the only thing that could slow the starter down is physical fatigue. At some point, he has to hit a wall – but he hasn’t yet, so Tampa seems content to address that problem when it pops up down the road.

Projected starts: 65-70

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: DALLAS STARS VS VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Recent Stanley Cup finalists looking to complete unfinished business

Scott Cullen — Thu, 18 May 2023 13:47:17 +0000

The Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars have advanced through the second round and will meet in the Western Conference Final for a chance to play the winner of the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final.

Both the Stars and Golden Knights have reached the Stanley Cup Final recently. The Golden Knights are in their sixth season, so their entire history is recent, and they reached the Final in 2018, losing to the Washington Capitals. The Stars were defeated by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2020 Final.

DALLAS, TX - APRIL 08: Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Alec Martinez (23), Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston (53) and right wing Evgenii Dadonov (63) stand in front of Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Jonathan Quick (32) during the game between the Dallas Stars and the Vegas Golden Knights on April 8, 2023 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Forwards

Vegas’s strength has been depth, and that has allowed them to overcome injuries throughout the season but also to receive contributions up and down the lineup. With a relatively healthy lineup in the postseason, Jack Eichel and Mark Stone are leading the way offensively, with 14 and 12 points, respectively.

However, seven more Golden Knights forwards have accrued at least five points through 11 playoff games. Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault flank Eichel on the top line, and that trio has controlled better than 57% of expected goals during five-on-five play in the postseason. Marchessault started slowly in the playoffs, but produced eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 23 shots on goal in the last four games against Edmonton.

Mark Stone and speedy center Chandler Stephenson are a strong foundation on the second line, with Brett Howden moving up the depth chart to join them. Stephenson is tied for the team lead with six goals. Howden’s production dipped against Edmonton, but he does bring a physical presence in a supporting role.

Reilly Smith, William Karlsson, and Nicolas Roy give the Golden Knights a high quality third line. Smith and Karlsson both have produced eight points in 11 playoff games.

The fourth line of William Carrier, Teddy Blueger, and Keegan Kolesar does not score a lot, but will take a pound of flesh as Carrier and Kolesar lead the Golden Knights in hits/60 in the playoffs. Michael Amadio has appeared in nine playoff games, but Blueger joined the lineup for the last two games against Edmonton. Phil Kessel has not dressed for Vegas since Game 5 of the first round.

Roope Hintz has elevated his game in the postseason, leading the Stars with nine goals and 19 points in 13 playoff games. His shot rate has increased, and the Stars have controlled 68.5% of expected goals with Hintz on the ice during five-on-play in the playoffs. Jason Robertson has managed just two goals and while he has 10 assists and has been driving play, the Stars have room to get better if Robertson’s production gets back on track. Joe Pavelski suffered a concussion in Game 1 of the first round against Minnesota but scored eight goals in seven games against Seattle. That trio is in a strong contender for Like the Golden Knights, the Stars have a quality top nine and have been able to count on

Like the Golden Knights, the Stars have a quality top nine and have been able to count on any of their top three lines to chip in offensively. Veterans Max Domi, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Evgenii Dadonov all have at least nine points. Mason Marchment and rookie Wyatt Johnston both contributed four goals and six points.

Radek Faksa, Luke Glendening, Joel Kiviranta, and Ty Dellandrea, in some combination, fill fourth line roles for the most part and they have had a mixed bag of results. For example, the Stars have controlled 55.3% of expected goals but have been outscored 9-3 with Dellandrea on the ice for five-on-five play in the playoffs.

Both teams have quality depth, but Vegas appears to have a deeper reservoir of talent up front.

Defense

Alex Pietrangelo has seven assists while playing more than 24 minutes per game but his most memorable play in the postseason may be his two-handed slash on Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl. Pietrangelo was suspended for Game 5 of that series as a result. He has paired with Alec Martinez and that pairing has had just 42.5 CF% and 46.7 xGF%, but they have somehow outscored the opposition 11-4 during five-on-five play.

Vegas’ second pairing of Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb, who offer a good mix of skills, from Theodore’s puck movement to McNabb’s bone-crunching hits, has been their most effective pair in the postseason. They have pulled 52.2% expected goals as a tandem in the playoffs, and they are the only two Vegas blueliners on the right side of 50% in that metric.

The Golden Knights’s third pair of Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud is relatively solid. They have been on the wrong end of Corsi (47.3%) and expected goals (47.5%) but have outscored the opposition 6-3 in the postseason.

Miro Heiskanen had a tremendous season and has contributed nine assists while playing more than 28 minutes per game in 13 playoff games. While he has played a ton, Heiskanen has had just slightly positive results so far in the playoffs, with a 52.2 CF% and 51.7 xGF% while the Stars have outscored opponents 8-6 with Heiskanen on the ice. Paired with Ryan Suter, Heiskanen has been very good, but hardly dominant, in the postseason.

The trouble for the Stars lands on the second pair, where Jani Hakanpaa and Esa Lindell have managed just 43.5% of expected goals and been outscored 11-4 during five-on-five play in the playoffs. Hakanpaa was bumped from the defensive rotation for Colin Miller in Game 7 against Seattle.

Where the Stars have had an edge in the playoffs is with the third pair of Thomas Harley and Joel Hanley on the ice. Harley has seven points, and the Stars are controlling 63.2% of expected goals with him on the ice for five-on-five play. Hanley has appeared in eight games and the Stars have 69.2% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 8-2 with him on the ice during five-on-five play.

If Miller replacing Hakanpaa can’t fix the second pair, then that is an area of weakness for the Golden Knights to exploit.

While both clubs have some top end blueliners, there are points of vulnerability on both units. Considering the depth of forward talent on both teams, the challenge for the Golden Knights and Stars will be minimizing the potential mismatches.

Goaltending

Dallas’ Jake Oettinger was so highly regarded coming out of last season’s first round loss to Calgary and he was comfortably above average during the regular season, but he was unexpectedly shaky in the second round against Seattle, posting a .877 save percentage in seven games. Given his opposition, though, Oettinger should be expected to give the Stars an edge.

Vegas has been churning through goaltenders. The latest to take on the starting job is Adin Hill, who played well after jumping in for an injured Laurent Brossoit. Hill had a .915 save percentage in 27 regular-season games and put up a .934 save percentage in five games against the Oilers. Those are solid numbers but the challenge for Hill, and all Golden Knights goaltenders this season, is staying healthy for more than two weeks at a time.

Special Teams

Vegas’ power play has been a problem area and is the weakest in the postseason for the four teams remaining. The Golden Knights have scored 4.81 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranks 13^th. Eichel and Stone have combined to score five of Vegas’ seven power play goals in the playoffs.

Dallas’ power play was excellent during the regular season, ranking second in the league with 9.40 goals per 60 during five-on-four play, and that rate has improved in the postseason, up to 12.41. Tyler Seguin leads the Stars with four power play goals in the playoffs while Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz both have eight points with the man advantage.

The efficiency of the Stars’ power play could pose a major problem for the Golden Knights because Vegas’ PK has been abysmal. They have allowed 17.04 goals against per 60 during four-on-five play, ranking 15^th out of 16 playoff teams.

By contrast, the Stars’ penalty killing unit was strong during the regular season and that has carried over into the playoffs. Dallas has allowed 4.81 goals against per 60 at four-on-five, ranking third in the playoffs.

Conclusion

This should be a competitive series because both the Stars and Golden Knights have shown great resilience to reach this point of the playoffs. However, the Stars have a significant special teams edge and should likely have the better goaltender, which is enough to nudge this towards Big D. Stars in 7.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – DALLAS STARS – NHL Player Profiles

Corey Sznajder – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 23:35:25 +0000

NASHVILLE, TN - MARCH 30: Dallas Stars center Roope Hintz (24) skates with the puck during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars, held on March 30, 2021, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Jason Robertson

There aren’t enough stats to show how great Jason Robertson’s sophomore season was. He followed up a runner-up Calder campaign with a season that put him in the MVP conversation, scoring 41 goals and producing scoring chances at a rate that was among the league’s best. He was the triggerman on his line with Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski, but all three were interchangeable with how well they worked together. Robertson just had the golden touch, converting on almost 19% of his shots and he created chances at a higher rate than any player not named Auston Matthews. He is one of the more unique young stars in the game, not having the breakaway speed or an abundance of highlight reel goals. He just excelled at making plays under pressure, knowing where to go with the puck before he received it and finding creative ways to give himself room to shoot. Part of that is the chemistry with his linemates and knowing their tendencies. The other part is his skill, he was a fantastic goal-scorer in the OHL with skating as his only major “flaw.” It hasn’t been an issue in the NHL because he hasn’t needed to break away from defenders to give himself space to shoot. Instead, he can trail Hintz entering the zone or curl away from a defender to give himself just enough time to get the shot he wants. It’s a skill we don’t get to see much of with how fast the game moves now, but players like Robertson can make it happen. Some regression might be expected next year, very few players shoot at almost 20%, but his floor should stay very high with the volume of offense he produces.

Roope Hintz

While Robertson was the moneymaker for Dallas, Hintz was the burner. It’s tough to breakdown Dallas’ top line individually because they all had similar impacts but go about their business in different ways. As the de facto center, Hintz adds some element of speed to the trio and does most of the work in the neutral zone, facilitating most of their rush offense and creating space for both Robertson and Pavelski. He had most of the highlight reel goals from the group, both at 5v5 and on the penalty kill. Hintz converted on a high percentage of his shots for the third year in a row, showing a good nose for the net and being a problem for goaltenders with some of his breakaway moves. He could also score from distance with his wrister, but most of his success came around the blue paint, both off rebounds and deflections. The Dallas top line was firing on all cylinders on such a level that they could play any style they wanted and Hintz’s work off the rush gave them another dynamic element. Hintz was one of the few Dallas prospects who let his skill show in Dallas’ forecheck-heavy system and he has since emerged as one of the league’s best centers.

Joe Pavelski

It says a lot when the one guy on the Stars top line who didn’t have a sky-high shooting percentage still had a career year. At the ripe age of 37, Pavelski set a career high in points with 81, getting the full benefit of Robertson and Hintz’ outstanding finishing but the veteran had a great year independent of that. Still one of the better two-way players in the league, Pavelski is the prime example of “less is more” and adapting to your surroundings. He excels at making plays in tight spaces, reading off his linemates and winning box-outs against defenders. It’s probably why he’s been able to debunk the aging curve, which is an understatement when you look at what he has given the Stars the past two seasons. A decline in boxcar stats should be expected, but he’s never been the fastest skater or the most physically gifted player, so it’s been easier for him to stay an effective player despite whatever curveball father time throws his way. Not too different from his Joe counterpart in San Jose. Signed for one more year at $5.5 million, he will continue to be the glue on the Stars top line.

Tyler Seguin

Seguin getting back to the 20-goal mark was a feel-good story for the Stars. A couple years removed from “losing his entire quad” it has been a long road back from the former second overall pick. Most of his value came from scoring, as the speed of the game looked too much for him at time and he didn’t produce the level of offense we’re used to seeing from him. Instead, you saw more goals off deflections or broken plays in front of the net, which is what you have to do when most of your explosiveness is gone. What they got from him last year is fine (49 points from a middle-six winger is nothing to scoff at), but for the contract the Stars have him signed to, it’s a bit of an albatross. They can only hope that time helps him regain some of his old form, even if the history of players coming off labral tears isn’t promising. He showed glimpses of his old self in stretches, but it’s tough to say if his body can keep up with the rigors of a full NHL season anymore.

Jamie Benn

The past few years of Jamie Benn paint a decent picture of what the back half of a long-term contract looks like for a power forward. Benn in particular has seen his offense dry up, coming off an 18-goal season where only nine came during five-on-five play. It’s a far cry from the player who could bullrush his way to the net. Not all the offense has left him, as he’s still good with winning pucks along the wall and getting to the scoring areas. Most of the high-end skill, however, hasn’t shown up on a consistent basis. Some of that is from poor finishing luck, his shooting percentage has been stuck in the mud for years now, and the other is him becoming more one-dimensional in the offensive zone. Stuck in more of a net-front role, most of your value is going to be based on how many plays you finish off and it’s been the major drawback of Benn’s game. Having Tyler Seguin replace Jason Dickinson as his regular linemate also impacted this, as he was tasked with providing more offense instead of only focusing on checking. His contract is what it is ($9.5 mil for three more years) so Benn just needs to do what he can to be effective. If that means being on the positive side of the goals and scoring chance battle, Dallas will live with it even if his offense continues to decline.

Mason Marchment

Only two players in the entire league produced at a higher rate during five-on-five play than Marchment. He showed some remarkable chemistry with Anton Lundell and Sam Reinhart with Florida, similar to what Dallas had in a smaller role. Marchment was the muscle of the line, being a pest on the forecheck doing most of the dirty work below the goal line. His skill seemed to catch teams off-guard because he has the body of a lanky, hard-hitting defenseman and skates with a really choppy stride. You wouldn’t expect him to nail so many one-timers or make so many between-the-legs passes as he does. He rode the wave with the rest of Florida’s historic offense, so the question is how it will translate to Dallas. Lundell and Reinhart were a great complement to him, with those two doing most of the puck-handling. Marchment plays such a strong defensive game that he should help any line he is on. His point production, however, might take a hit. Marchment was in a great situation last year, playing in an offense focused system with linemates who did most of the puck-handling, giving plenty of room to create scoring chances. Dallas isn’t blessed with that type of forward talent so the most they can hope for is for Marchment’s strong play-driving presence can revive Seguin or Benn’s games and make them a productive second line.

Radek Faksa

One of ex-head coach Rick Bowness’ favorite players, Faksa was the most relied on defensive center for Dallas, starting most of his shifts in the shadow of his own goalie and receiving heavy penalty killing duty. Every season his minutes have gone up while his offense has declined, stuck with a single-digit goal total for the second year in a row. Formerly a 15-17 goal guy, Faksa could be an interesting player to watch under the new coaching staff. It was rare for him to even step foot over the opposing blue line with the role he played. It’s something that could change under Peter DeBoer, if only because Dallas is still very thin at forward and they have another defense-first center option in Luke Glendening. Faksa has shown some goal-scoring touch in the past while still playing a checking role before, so that’s the one hope for Faksa to get back to the 15-goal mark. That or have some of his defensive stats rebound with a less taxing role.

Denis Gurianov

Once a touted goal-scorer, Gurianov found himself in depth forward purgatory heading into this season. He is still a shoot-first player but hasn’t converted on many of those shots. He was Seguin and Benn’s wingman for most of the year, which unfortunately meant having to drive the line on his own some nights, which he struggled to do. Most of his points came off broken plays or a rebound of his own shot. He couldn’t be unleashed on the power play, as he was stuck on the second unit and most teams knew his shot from the right circle was coming. Still, he had flashes. In the games where the top line had an off-night, Gurianov could pick up the slack with his penchant for creating off the rush. It’s something that turned a few games around for Dallas and makes him a valuable player even if his overall stats leave you wanting more. He will be given a fresh start with the new coaching staff but finding linemates who can set him up will be a challenge unless the top line gets broken up.

DEFENSE

Miro Heiskanen

Will this be the year Heiskanen emerges as a Norris front-runner? It’s only his fifth year in the league and he excels at so many things that even the best defensemen in the league struggle with. Whether it’s killing plays along the wall, defending one-on-one or skating away from pressure, Heiskanen does it better than almost anyone else in the league. It’s fair to ask if he even needs to have the gaudy point totals to get Norris talk. Unfortunately, it’s just the nature of the beast and it could see a shift this year with John Klingberg’s spot on the top power play unit up for grabs. Heiskanen has a lot of tools that could make him Dallas’ version of Roman Josi. He skates so effortlessly and is great at commanding the offensive zone, so it’s easy to see him having a similar impact with better finishing from the guys in front of him. It’s the one area of his game where the skill hasn’t translated to results and while some of it is out of his control, most who follow the Stars have been waiting for this type of breakout since his rookie season. Things are lining up for him to have that offensive explosion. He is already among the league’s top blue-liners at creating scoring chances, needs to pick up some of John Klingberg’s slack and is now playing for a coach who oversaw career offensive seasons from Brent Burns, Shea Theodore and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Will Miro be next in line?

Ryan Suter

Few players fit the “quietly goes about their business’ description better than Ryan Suter. It’s tough to recall any highlights from his first season with the Stars but in the big picture, he played in the top-three all season and held the fort down. He isn’t the automatic breakout or shadow in the defensive zone that he used to be, so his impact is a little more neutral now than a dominant presence. It’s a little concerning because the Klingberg departure and the decision to replace him from within could force Suter back into the 25–27-minute range, especially if he is Heiskanen’s partner again. Suter will always have the cardio to play those minutes, but the decision-making and ability to keep forwards to the outside is where his game has slowed down. He will usually patrol the front of the net instead of skating forwards into a corner and doesn’t have the same accuracy when going for the long stretch pass. DeBoer could make things easier for him, as he did with Alec Martinez in Vegas, but it’s still a lot to ask for someone who is about to turn 38 and has a lot of miles on his tires. Thomas Harley emerging as a top-four guy could help Suter in the long run.

Esa Lindell

Lindell has one of the most thankless jobs in the league, playing 20+ minutes and spending most of it either blocking shots or killing penalties. He will occasionally break for offense, producing like a middle-pair defenseman for most of his career, but he is usually focused on preventing damage. That means throwing a lot of hits and standing up at the blue line to try to prevent entries. He has always been great at this role, it’s just a question of how much longer he can play it before his body starts to breakdown. That and this is the first year where he won’t have Klingberg by his side, which could mean more responsibility for him to move the puck instead of just clearing it out of the zone. He has shown some upside here in the past, scoring 11 goals back in 2018-19 with some modest power play production sprinkled in. It is very tough to transition to a completely different mindset when you’ve been in the same role forever, but Dallas’ has a lack of mobility on their blue line, which could force Lindell to play in more offensive situations. Whether or not he can handle that remains to be seen.

Colin Miller

Colin Miller’s stint in Buffalo is proof of how tough it is to make the jump to the top-pair for even the most talented defensemen. The Sabres were hoping he could be a running-mate for Dahlin after he dominated territorial play on Vegas’ third pair. Instead, they got three years of him shuffled around the lineup, including a handful of healthy scratches, and him struggling to translate his impressive physical traits into game situations. Miller isn’t the only Sabres defenseman who struggled to keep his head above water, so he gets to have a fresh start on a Dallas team with more structure. It shouldn’t be too hard for him to find a niche under DeBoer. He’s a lanky, mobile defenseman with a big shot, boasting a similar profile to guys DeBoer got good miles out of in Vegas, even if it’s in a depth role. With Miller having a track record as a great third-pair guy, he should get a chance to turn his career around in Dallas. There also might be a chance to move up in the lineup with Jani Hakanpaa currently slotting in on the Stars second pair.

GOALTENDING

Jake Oettinger

There was a big asterisk next to Jake Oettinger’s name for the majority of the off-season, with the Stars coming down to the eleventh hour on contract negotiations with the restricted free agent before inking him to a three-year deal worth $4 million each season.

Now that he’s signed, though, there’s little that the Stars need to worry about with Oettinger at the helm. The team has dealt with a few too many bad calls in signing experienced veteran netminders over the last decade, so Oettinger truly checks all their boxes in a way fans haven’t seen in years. He’ll turn 24 mid-season, giving him plenty of mileage left in the tank; add in two seasons of impressive NHL numbers as an option in their rotating goaltending carousel, and this might be the first safe and consistent bet Dallas has deployed since the Marty Turco era. They brought in a more reliable number two for Oettinger as well, acquiring Scott Wedgewood not to compete for starts, but to supplement their heir apparent. From a technical standpoint, there’s little about Oettinger’s game that still needs significant clean-up, either – he seems to love catching shooters by surprise and throwing in a few dramatic stops here and there, but also keeps a consistent baseline to his game’s foundation that emphasizes conservative movement within the blue paint and a front-facing stance. In other words, fans might watch him throw himself to the ice a time or two, but he won’t often get caught facing the pipes and spun in circles trying to track the puck; it makes him fun to watch without the element of stress that some of Dallas’ more colorful past backstops have brought to the table.

Projected starts: 60-65

Red Flags – Detroit Red Wings 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 18:59:42 +0000

STATE OF PLAY/REVIEW - In coach Jeff Blashill’s third season the Detroit Red Wings missed the playoffs for the second straight season finishing 26^th after not missing the playoffs since the 1980’s. GM Ken Holland has steered the ship since 1997, winning the Stanley Cup three times in that period, the last one a decade ago. It appears from the outside looking in that a rebuild would be in order.

To an extent Holland has begun that process. Their success over the decades of his leadership have been built on a strong farm system and the ability to develop prospects through Grand Rapids. He astutely added draft picks last season and picked 11 times in the 2018 Draft including four picks in the top 36 delivering two high ceiling prospects in Filip Zadina and Joe Veleno. The logic would follow in a salary cap league that was another season with a high-end draft pick would set them up to target three or four years down the road. Yet Holland added more free agent veterans to round out his line-up resigning Mike Green, added Thomas Vanek and goaltender Jonathan Bernier - moves intended to bolster a playoff contender rather than opening room in the line-up for youth.

VETERAN CAP CRUNCH - They also have the least amount of cap space in the league limiting opportunities to take bad contracts from contenders for more prospects. They have four defenseman 32 years and old signed for a total of $17.575 million total AAV averaging $4.4 million AAV, only one of which, Niklas Kronwall is not signed beyond this year, the other three with two-year contracts. Rounding out the group is Danny DeKeyser, the youngster at 28-years-old, signed for another five years at $5.0 million AAV. All five defenseman have no-trade contracts, with Jonathan Ericsson and Niklas Kronwall being limited.

At forward they have five forward 30 years and older with a combined yearly salary cap of $22.4 million in Henrik Zetterberg, Frans Nielsen, Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm and Thomas Vanek, only Zetterberg does not possess a full no-trade contract, and he will undoubtedly end his career as a Red Wing – and back trouble is threatening his season. Once again, options to stock the cupboard are slim here.

Dylan Larkin

BUILDING BLOCKS - They already have in place some excellent young talent in the line-up with recently extended 22-year-old Dylan Larkin for five years at $6.1 million AAV. He and 23-year-old sniper Anthony Mantha teamed up down the stretch and represent a potent duo next season. Continuing to graduate prospectS out of Grand Rapids, Tyler Bertuzzi appeared in 48 games last season and ready for a full NHL season. He plays intense hockey with enough skill to provide an effective agitator role on a top six line while providing offense. They hope that the highly talented Filip Zadina, consensus third overall pick who slipped to sixth, can contribute immediately in a scoring role in the top six. Always a challenge for an 18-year old but Zadina has elite skills to make the leap.

They would also like to see last years ninth overall pick 6’6” inch fleet footed Michael Rasmussen begin to play a role but likely will draw third or fourth line minutes flanked by defensive minded veterans. He scored 33 points in 14 playoff games in the WHL, so he may be eased on the wing for his offensive contributions. After two seasons for Evgeny Svechnikov in Grand Rapids, and a 14-game trial in the NHL last year in which he did not look out of place, may be ready for a full-time role. His production fell in his second year in the AHL, and whether he can put his promising game together remains to be seen.

The rest of the forward spots will be filled out by veterans to provide some shelter for the youngsters. On defense Filip Hronek will get an opportunity to graduate from Grand Rapids but will receive sheltered minutes at best. A good puck rushing defenseman, but his game needs overall development.

Adding veteran Jonathan Bernier to back up Jimmy Howard gives them veteran presence in net and a guard against injury. That provides more of security blanket and ensures they are competitive in most games after having led the NHL in one-goal game losses. However, this is a team that was 21^st in goals against per game and iced the 24^th worst power play and 23^rd worst penalty kill. Thomas Vanek may provide some help with the man advantage, he looked very good scoring 15 points in 19 games with Columbus down the stretch, otherwise neither area was addressed in the off-season and not sure Vanek is enough of a difference maker.

OUTLOOK - Holland is trying to rebuild his youthful core while still icing a potential playoff unit and rebuild on the fly. He has some promising pieces and should add another one this season. For all his efforts to get back to the postseason it will be a long shot and if injuries, as the Zetterberg news may foreshadow, begin to hit the veteran group it could be a long season.

Training Camp Notes – October 3rd, 2017

Ryan Dadoun — Tue, 03 Oct 2017 22:25:53 +0000

Anaheim

Ryan Getzlaf – Sustained a lower-body injury last week and hasn’t resumed skating yet. A couple days back Ducks coach Randy Carlyle did say on Saturday that he expected Getzlaf to play in the opener, but that’s on Thursday so we’re cutting it pretty close now.

Patrick Eaves – Didn’t end up playing in any preseason games. His lower-body injury might keep him out of the season opener as well. He’s another player Carlyle projected to be available for the opener while speaking on Saturday though, so we’ll see.

Arizona

Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Good news on this front. His recovery from his knee injury has progressed to the point where he’s been practicing with the Coyotes. It looks like he’ll be ready for the season opener.

Antti Raanta –A lower-body injury kept him out of the Coyotes’ last preseason game. He practiced with Arizona on Sunday though, so he’ll probably be fine for the opener.

Boston

Torey Krug – The Bruins are hoping that his jaw injury only sidelines him for the first three-to-five regular season games. In the meantime, he has been skating. For what it’s worth, when he does return he’ll be wearing a protective mask.

Buffalo

Benoit Pouliot – Was on a line with Ryan O'Reilly and Kyle Okposo during Sunday’s practice. He had been practicing as a bottom-six forward previously, so it will be interesting to see if he ends up on that unit to start the campaign.

Zemgus Girgensons – It was bad news for Girgensons. He was previously on Ryan O'Reilly and Kyle Okposo’s line, but Girgensons was knocked down to the third unit with Sam Reinhart and Jason Pominville. The Sabres’ third line has potential though.

Rasmus Ristolainen – After averaging 26:28 minutes per game last season (up from 25:17 minutes in 2015-16), Sabres coach Phil Housley wants to cut Ristolainen down to 22-23 minutes per game. The hope is that will keep him fresher for the final stretch.

Calgary

Jaromir Jagr – Signed a one-year contract with Calgary that comes with a $1 million base salary. Not sure what line Jagr plays for, but here’s a fun aside: Jagr was drafted the same year as Matthew Tkachuk’s father Keith. Keith Tkachuk retired seven years ago.

Carolina

Lee Stempniak – His hip/back problems remain something of a mystery. On Monday Hurricanes coach Bill Peters remarked, "We've got to get to the bottom of it sooner rather than later." Stempniak is questionable for the season opener and how much time he might miss beyond that seems like anybody’s guess.

Chicago

Connor Murphy – Sustained a lower-body injury on Saturday and didn’t practice on Monday as a result. It’s not clear if he’ll be available for the opener.

Colorado

Jonathan Bernier – As mentioned before, he sustained a groin injury on Sept. 25. The good news is that he resumed practicing with the team on Monday.

Columbus

Brandon Dubinsky – Got into the preseason finale on Saturday after missing all the previous exhibition contests due to a wrist injury. He should be fine for the season opener.

Pierre-Luc Dubois – Although the Blue Jackets have experimented with using him as a center, it looks like he’ll be serving as a left winger to start the campaign. His projected linemates are Brandon Dubinsky and Matt Calvert.

Boone Jenner – His back injury will keep him out of the season opener. Beyond that there’s no timetable for his return. He hasn’t skated with the Blue Jackets yet.

Detroit

David Booth – Signed a one-year, two-way deal with the Red Wings. It sounds like he’ll be in the lineup for the season opener, probably alongside Riley Sheahan and Luke Glendening.

Florida

Owen Tippett – He’ll be part of the Panthers’ roster for the start of the 2017-18 campaign. The downside is that it might be as a fourth line forward, so he might not be a fantasy factor for a while still.

Los Angeles

Mike Cammalleri/Jonny Brodzinski – The two might find themselves on either side of Anze Kopitar to begin the season. Obviously that would be great news for both of them, but it’d be a particularly big opportunity for the rookie Brodzinski.

Minnesota

Zach Parise – Is now expected to miss the first two games of the regular season due to his back problem. He also missed the Wild’s whole preseason schedule.

Nashville

Viktor Arvidsson – There’s been talk of him not opening the season with Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg. Two potential candidates to replace him on the top line would be Kevin Fiala and Scott Hartnell. None of that’s been finalized yet though.

New Jersey

Jimmy Hayes – More of an FYI because he doesn’t have fantasy value, but he did earn a one-year, $700,000 contract with New Jersey after attending the Devils’ training camp on a PTO.

Pavel Zacha – He’s getting a big opportunity off the bat as he’s projected to open on a line with Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri. It’s not set in stone, but Devils coach John Hynes called it a “strong possibility.

NY Rangers

Kevin Shattenkirk – It’s not surprising, but it looks like Shattenkirk will be paired with Ryan McDonagh to start the season.

NY Islanders

Jordan Eberle – Another bit of anticipated, but nice to be basically confirmed news is that Eberle will be starting the campaign alongside John Tavares. The third member of that unit should be Anders Lee. Islanders coach Doug Weight has been happy with that trio so far.

Ottawa

Derick Brassard – Has been cleared for contact, so he might be able to play in the season opener. He’s been recovering from a shoulder injury.

Erik Karlsson – Still dealing with a foot injury, it’s now very unlikely that he’ll play in the opener. Not sure when he’ll be back.

Philadelphia

December 5, 2015:Philadelphia Flyers Defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere (53) moves the puck out of the Flyers zone in the first period during the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Philadelphia Flyers at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)

Shayne Gostisbehere – Sustained an upper-body injury during Sunday’s game. There hasn’t been an update yet, but he did join the Flyers’ flight to San Jose (ahead of Wednesday’s opener), so you could take that as an encouraging sign.

Travis Sanheim/Sam Morin – They were battling for a spot on the roster, but if Gostisbehere isn’t available then they could both stay on the roster for now. Fellow rookie defenseman Robert Hagg did make the roster so he should remain with the squad regardless of Gostisbehere’s status.

San Jose

Joe Thornton – He made his preseason debut on Saturday, clearing the way for him to participate in the opener. He underwent knee surgery to repair a torn ACL/MCL.

St. Louis

Scottie Upshall – Not of much fantasy relevance, but he did sign a one-year contract with the Blues. He began on a PTO with Vancouver, but found an opportunity with the Blues instead due to their injuries. Upshall is likely to enter the season on the fourth line alongside Kyle Brodziak and Chris Thorburn.

Washington

Tom Wilson – He’ll have a hearing tomorrow (Tuesday) for boarding the Blues’ Sam Blais. He already served a two-game preseason suspension over interference, so maybe this will be a harsher punishment as a result.

Brooks Orpik – Capitals coach Barry Trotz is tentatively planning to pair Orpik up with John Carlson to open the season. Orpik usually played alongside Nate Schmidt last season, but he’s not with the team anymore. Similarly, Carlson’s most common 2016-17 partner, Karl Alzner, is also gone.

Jakub Vrana – Not set in stone, but there’s a chance that Vrana not only opens the season with the Capitals, but does so on a line with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov.

Winnipeg

Matt Hendricks – Is on the injured reserve after sustaining an undisclosed injury during Wednesday’s preseason contest. He’s regarded as day-to-day.

Andrew Copp – Suffered a knee injury during Saturday’s preseason contest. Jets coach Paul Maurice hasn’t ruled out Copp for the season opener though.