Mackenzie Blackwood – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – PLAYOFF EDITION – Less obvious players to target

Scott Cullen — Sat, 18 Apr 2026 14:49:24 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, a look some less obvious players to target for playoff pools.

1 It’s not like a top scorer on the Stanley Cup favourites is going to be some bargain, but Martin Necas heads into the playoffs on a tear. Necas came out of the Olympic break producing on a higher level, scoring 38 points (16 G, 22 A) with 82 shots on goal in 26 games down the stretch. He’s riding shotgun with Nathan MacKinnon and Arttur Lehkonen on the top line and obviously getting first unit power play time, too. Not a surprise pick, but more a reminder not to overlook how great this player has been this season.

2 While the Los Angeles Kings keep getting beat out in the first round of the playoffs and they have the daunting matchup against the Avalanche in the first round, but Adrian Kempe is a consistent stud in the playoffs. Since the Olympic break, Kempe has 27 points (16 G, 11 A) and 70 shots on goal in 25 games. In the past four playoffs, he has put up 29 points (15 G, 14 A) with 106 shots on goal in 24 games. He has been an elite playoff performer, and it gets overlooked because it only comes in one round bursts.

3 The Minnesota Wild have tried time and again to find a different centre for their top line, but they have returned Ryan Hartman to that role, skating between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, and he finished the regular season with 15 points (8 G, 7 A) and 39 shots on goal in the last 13 games. That’s already encouraging but consider that he has 16 points (4 G, 12 A) and 42 shots on goal in 17 games across his last three playoff appearances. The Wild have a tough matchup against Dallas in the first round, but Hartman is an intriguing player to watch in the postseason.

4 Future Hall of Famers don’t tend to get overlooked, but it’s always worth noting when a player has taken their game to a new level. Pittsburgh Penguins defenceman Erik Karlsson came back from the Olympics and delivered 31 points (11 G, 20 A) with 68 shots on goal in 24 games. Insane production from a 35-year-old. He has 34 points (4 G, 30 A) with 104 shots on goal in 38 games across his last two playoff appearances, though this will be his first postseason appearance since 2018-2019.

5 One of the most exciting young teams in the league, the Montreal Canadiens have a tough matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round, but it’s not going to be an easy path for the Lightning, either. Since the Olympic break, captain Nick Suzuki ranks fifth in the league with 36 points (11 G, 25 A) in 25 games, Cole Caufield leads the league with 19 goals in 24 games, and Juraj Slafkovsky is tied for 18th with 28 points (9 G, 19 A) in 25 games. It’s early in the team’s trajectory for the Canadiens to go on a long playoff run, especially considering their mediocre possession numbers, but if their young stars show up, they could do some damage.

6 The Utah Mammoth are making their first playoff appearance and, like the Canadiens, have a group of skilled forwards that can make a difference. Clayton Keller had 34 points (9 G, 25 A) in 25 games after the Olympic break, Dylan Guenther added 26 points (25 G, 11 A) and 64 shots on goal in 24 games, and Logan Cooley, Nick Schmaltz, and Mikhail Sergachev each had at least 20 points. They may not have the playoff experience of the Vegas Golden Knights, but the Mammoth have some players who could make the first-round series very interesting.

7 One of the more remarkable parts of Boston’s strong finish to the regular season was the production that they received from veterans Pavel Zacha and Viktor Arvidsson, two players who have had very solid careers but performed like stars down the stretch. Zacha finished the regular season with 28 points (15 G, 13 A) and 44 shots on goal in 24 games. That is dependent on an inflated shooting percentage, but it’s fantastic production from a player who is not a star. Similarly, Arvidsson had 26 points (11 G, 15 A) with 51 shots on goal in his last 24 games.

8 While Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin draw most of the attention in Pittsburgh, the wingers in the supporting cast should not be ignored, especially since the Penguins have a chance to advance beyond the first round. Bryan Rust tied his career high with 65 points (29 G, 36 A) this season, finishing with 25 points and 57 shots on goal in 23 games after the Olympic break. He’s not the only one. Rickard Rakell played a bunch of centre, especially when Crosby was injured, and he had 23 points (13 G, 10 A) with 53 shots on goal in his last 20 games.

9 Two of Kyle Dubas’ best acquisitions in the past year played a big part in Pittsburgh reaching the postseason. Egor Chinakhov flashed potential with the Columbus Blue Jackets a couple of years ago, when he had 29 points (16 G, 13 A) in 53 games, but he struggled to get going at the start of this season and the Penguins swooped in, getting him for a second-round pick. They watched him grow into a role as a legitimate scoring winger who tallied 32 points (15 G, 17 A) with 86 shots on goal in his last 33 games.

10 A 20 Fantasy Poins favourite, Anthony Mantha played just 13 games last season in Calgary before tearing his ACL. The Penguins signed him as a free agent, to a one-year, $2.5 million deal that was almost assuredly intended to make him very tradeable once he proved that he could still play. He did that quickly, generating 11 points (6 G, 5 A) with 23 shots on goal in his first 12 games and then, as the Penguins continued to win, it became apparent that there would be little upside to trading a winger who was filling the net. He finished the season by scoring 19 points (12 G, 7 A) in his last 19 games on his way to career highs of 33 goals and 64 points. He has zero goals in 14 career playoff games, so this year presents a prime opportunity for Mantha to net his first postseason goal.

11 Dallas Stars veteran Matt Duchene suffered an upper-body injury early in the season, and he struggled, but once he got healthy, and then the Stars needed him to play a bigger role as injuries decimated their forward group. Duchene finished the season with 34 points (12 G, 22 A) and 54 shots on goal in his last 31 games. The shot rate is not ideal, but his role on the top power play unit and skating between Jason Robertson and Mavrik Bourque on the Stars’ second line is very encouraging. Bourque is starting to unlock his potential, too, putting up 18 points (9 G, 9 A) with 44 shots on goal in 23 games since the beginning of March.

12 The Ottawa Senators have the profile of a contending team, so even though they are facing a relentless Carolina Hurricanes squad, they should not be considered pushovers. Part of the reason to like the Sens is their scoring depth. Since the Olympic break, Drake Batherson has put up 22 points (14 G, 8 A) with 55 shots on goal in 25 games, lifting him to career highs of 33 goals and 71 points on the season.

13 Everyone is aware of Boston Bruins defenceman Charlie McAvoy. He played for Team USA at the Olympics and has been in the Top 10 of Norris Trophy voting three times in his career, but part of what he is known for is being a standout defender who does not pad his production with power play points. It’s not that he never played the power play, but it wasn’t the foundation of his production like it is for some other defenders. In the second half of the season, as the Bruins pushed for a playoff spot, McAvoy turned into one of those point-producing blueliners. In his last 41 games, McAvoy accrued 42 points (10 G, 32 A) with 66 shots on goal and 14 of those 42 points came on the power play.

14 The Philadelphia Flyers made a late charge to get into the playoffs, in part fueled by 2025 No. 6 pick Porter Martone, who scored 50 points (25 G, 25 A) in 35 games as a freshman at Michigan State then signed with the Flyers when his collegiate season was done. Martone did not waste any time upon turning pro, as he produced 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 32 shots on goal and 16 hits in nine games. He’s a ready-made power forward and is one of the biggest reasons for the Flyers to be a threat against the Penguins in the first round.

15 The Carolina Hurricanes put pressure on their opponents from the drop of the opening puck and part of what makes it work is that they get contributions from secondary players. Look at the line of veteran left winger Taylor Hall skating with younger players Jackson Blake and Logan Stankoven. Hall has 21 points (6 G, 15 A) and 42 shots on goal in 23 games since the Olympic break, Stankoven finished the regular season with 11 points (7 G, 4 A) and 19 shots on goal during an 8-game point streak, and Blake had 13 points (3 G, 10 A) with 32 shots on goal in his last 14 games.

16 Anaheim Ducks defenceman Jackson LaCombe has seen his stock rise in the past few seasons, but this will be his first appearance in the playoffs. In the second half of the season, LaCombe contributed 35 points (4 G, 31 A) with 66 shots on goal in 41 games. The arrival of John Carlson at the trade deadline didn’t hurt LaCombe either, as he had 17 points (4 G, 13 A) in 21 games after the trade.

17 The Los Angeles Kings are fighting uphill, facing the Colorado Avalanche in the first round, but if they are going to have success, they may need a breakthrough performance from centre Quinton Byfield, who struggled to score consistently this season, but then finished with 16 points (11 G, 5 A) and 45 shots on goal in his last 16 games. Byfield’s right winger, Alex Laferriere brings the heavy physical game that should work in the postseason and Laferriere had 15 points (5 G, 10 A) with 47 shots on goal and 60 hits in his last 16 games of the regular season.

18 Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Sean Walker has surged offensively down the stretch. Since the Olympic break, Walker has 17 points (5 G, 12 A) with 55 shots on goal in 24 games, and he doesn’t depend on the man advantage to get his points as only one of his 31 points this season came via the power play.

19 Heading into the playoffs, here are some goaltenders that finished the season strong. Since the Olympic break, Montreal’s Jakub Dobes was 11-5 with a .916 save percentage. Colorado’s Scott Wedgewood was 11-2-1 with a .945 save percentage, which becomes interesting because Mackenzie Blackwood struggled. Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was 11-2-1 with a .920 save percentage, and Boston’s Jeremy Swayman was 9-6-1 with a .918 save percentage. Kings goaltender Anton Forsberg was 7-5 with a .914 save percentage, which is notable because Darcy Kuemper also had trouble down the stretch.

20 On the other hand, these goaltenders had trouble late in the season that could pose challenges in the playoffs. Utah’s Karel Vejmelka 11-6-1 but his save percentage was .883. Mackenzie Blackwood was 7-5-1 with a .884 save percentage. Carolina’s Frederik Andersen has had a tough season and finished with a 9-4 record but a .879 save percentage in his last 13 games. Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal was 9-7-2 with a .868 save percentage down the stretch. Kuemper was 5-3-6 with a .867 save percentage and Carolina’s Brandon Bussi was 8-3-1 with a .865 save percentage.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – A major injury for the Oilers, a renaissance in Pittsburgh, a big trade acquisition is paying off for Seattle, Columbus’ driving force, and so much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 21 Mar 2026 14:33:30 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, a major injury for the Oilers, a renaissance in Pittsburgh, a big trade acquisition is paying off for Seattle, Columbus’ driving force, and so much more!

#1 The Edmonton Oilers have lost star centre Leon Draisaitl for the rest of the regular season due to a lower-body injury. This causes a lot of dominos to fall in response when it comes to the Oilers lineup. They have moved Ryan Nugent-Hopkins into the second-line centre role, between Zach Hyman and Jack Roslovic, with Vasily Podkolzin moving to left wing on the first line with Connor McDavid. In his past 10 games, Nugent-Hopkins has four goals and zero assists with 20 shots on goal, which starts to lean him towards the fantasy roster bubble in basic leagues. Podkolzin is intriguing for deeper leagues as he has been picking up his pace. Since the beginning of February, he has eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 30 shots on goal in 14 games.

#2 As a 35-year-old future Hall of Famer, Pittsburgh Penguins defenceman Erik Karlsson has had ups and downs over the course of a long career, but when he is on, his greatness still shines through and, right now, he’s on. Coming out of the Olympic break, with the Penguins missing Sidney Crosby (and, for five games, Evgeni Malkin) Karlsson has been killing it. In 12 games, averaging more than 24 minutes of ice time per game, Karlsson has put up 17 points (5 G, 12 A) with 36 shots on goal. It’s elite, superstar-level production once again and over the entire season the Penguins have outscored opponents 60 to 41 with Karlsson on the ice at five-on-five.

#3 The Seattle Kraken are still in the playoff hunt and made a savvy move to acquire Bobby McMann from the Toronto Maple Leafs before the trade deadline. He has joined Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle on the Kraken’s top line and in his first four games for the Kraken, McMann has six points (4 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal. What is especially interesting is that he is also getting nearly three minutes more of ice time per game.

#4 Every time a team makes a head coaching change, they dream of getting the kind of results that the Blue Jackets have received since replacing Dean Evason with Rick Bowness. The Blue Jackets have a 17-2-4 record under Bowness and there is one player who has really reaped the rewards from this change. Zach Werenski, Adam Fantilli, and Kirill Marchenko have all put up at least a point per game but the leading scorer on the team over that time is Charlie Coyle, who has 29 points (10 G, 19 A) and 57 shots on goal in those 23 games. He is up to 55 points in 68 games for the season, now within five points of his career high of 60 points, set in 2023-2024.

#5 Coming out of the Olympic break, Boston Bruins centre Pavel Zacha has turned into a much-needed productive scoring forward. In 12 games, he has recorded 14 points (8 G, 6 A) and 22 shots on goal. That shot rate isn’t ideal, but he has found a good line with veterans Casey Mittelstadt and Viktor Arvidsson on the wings. Zacha has a career-high 23 goals and, with 51 points, he is within range of his career high of 59 points, set in 2023-2024.

#6 With Sidney Crosby returning to the Penguins lineup, after recovering from the knee injury that he suffered during the Olympics, that has allowed Rickard Rakell to move back to left wing on the top line. Rakell had filled in at centre on the Penguins’ top line and he’s now riding a seven-game point streak, during which he has nine points (2 G, 7 A). He has taken 147 faceoffs this season, his most in a season since 2017-2018.

#7 With the end of his brilliant career on the horizon, Los Angeles Kings centre Anze Kopitar is still pushing for a playoff spot and he’s playing between high-octane scoring wingers Artemi Panarin and Adrian Kempe on the top line. Kopitar is 38 years old and, in the month of March, he has nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 24 shots on goal in nine games. Definitely worth adding for the stretch run in fantasy leagues just based on his linemates alone.

#8 The season has obviously gone in the wrong direction for the Vancouver Canucks, but that does offer a chance to find undervalued players. Veteran winger Brock Boeser has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 19 shots on goal in his past nine games, finding a good connection with former Minnesota Wild forwards Marco Rossi and Liam Ohgren as his linemates. Even with this recent surge in production, Boeser has just 36 points in 61 games. His previous career low was 45 points, which he scored in just 57 games during the 2019-2020 season.

#9 The Minnesota Wild have been having such a strong season that it has allowed secondary players to become viable fantasy contributors. Vladimir Tarasenko has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in the past six games, and while he does get top unit power play time, he is playing with Mats Zuccarello and Ryan Hartman on a solid veteran second line. He’s not the top line scorer that he was during his peak years, but Tarasenko is one goal away from the ninth 20-goal season of his career.

#10 Carolina Hurricanes sophomore right winger Jackson Blake continues to improve. Since the Olympic break, he has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 29 shots on goal in 11 games. He has been cooking on a line with Logan Stankoven and Taylor Hall, and Blake’s ability to generate chances totally fits with the Hurricanes’ ethos. His 1.02 expected goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play ranks third on the team, behind Seth Jarvis and Eric Robinson.

#11 As the Ottawa Senators make a furious push for a playoff spot, centre Shane Pinto is delivering solid secondary scoring, with eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past eight games. He has 37 points (18 G, 19 A) in 58 games this season, tying last season’s 37 points in 70 games for his career high. At even strength, he’s playing with Nick Cousins and Michael Amadio, so it’s not like Pinto’s production is getting propped up by strong linemates, but he does do most of his damage at evens, recording 32 of his 37 points at even strength.

#12 One of the players that has been covered the most in these 20 Fantasy Points articles this season is Penguins winger Anthony Mantha, who is having the best season of his career while coming off a torn ACL suffered while playing for the Calgary Flames last season. He has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal during a six-game point streak and is up to 26 goals and 53 points for the season, both of which are career highs. He is skating on a line with rookie Ben Kindel and fellow towering winger Justin Brazeau.

#13 While the San Jose Sharks have other young players that command more of the spotlight – and justifiably so – winger Collin Graf has shown that he can be a valuable contributor in the NHL. Graf joined the Sharks after putting up 49 points in 34 games for Quinnipiac in 2023-2024 and split last season between the AHL and NHL. This season, his most common linemates have been Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith, which is obviously a great situation for him. Right now, Tyler Toffoli is on the right side with Graf and Celebrini and Graf has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 23 shots on goal in 10 games this month.

#14 He is not the player that he was during his peak years, but 37-year-old Detroit Red Wings right winger Patrick Kane can still deliver the goods offensively. With Dylan Larkin out of the lineup, Andrew Copp has stepped into the No. 1 centre spot for the Red Wings, between Kane and Alex DeBrincat, and Kane has eight points (3 G, 5 A) with 21 shots on goal in his past seven games. His ice time is up over 19 minutes per game in that span, suggesting that the Red Wings are leaning on him more as they fight for their playoff lives.

#15 Tampa Bay Lightning left winger Gage Goncalves has shown flashes in his first two NHL campaigns, using his speed to create chances, and he is getting a prime opportunity right now, skating on a line with Brayden Point at centre and Jake Guentzel on right wing. In his past nine games, Goncalves has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) with 17 shots on goal, which is remarkable production for a player averaging 13:32 of ice time per game.

#16 The season has certainly not gone the way that the St. Louis Blues might have hoped, but down seasons for teams can provide pockets of fantasy value for specific players. Case in point: veteran defenceman Cam Fowler has contributed seven points (1 G, 6 A) in his past eight games even though young defencemen Philip Broberg and Logan Mailloux are ahead of Fowler on the power play depth chart.

#18 The Washington Capitals are fading from playoff contention, and their big guns are firing blanks at an inopportune time as they are 3-4-1 in their past eight games. Alex Ovechkin, who is 40 years old, has two points (1 G, 1 A) and 21 shots on goal in his past seven games. It’s not going any better for playmaking centre Dylan Strome, who has two assists and 10 shots on goal in the past seven games. Defenceman Jakob Chychrun, who leads NHL defencemen with 23 goals, has three points (1 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal in his past eight games. Maybe the Capitals can turn their attention to Cole Hutson, the 19-year-old defenceman who was a second-round pick in 2024. Hutson, the younger brother of Montreal Canadiens star Lane Hutson, signed with the Capitals after scoring 32 points (10 G, 22 A) in 35 games during his sophomore season at Boston University. Hutson made his mark with a goal and three shots on goal while playing 16:24 against Ottawa in his NHL debut

#19 While there is some uncertainty about the Montreal Canadiens’ goaltending, with Samuel Montembeault, Jakub Dobes, and rookie Jacob Fowler all options, Dobes is doing his part to claim the crease. Since the trade deadline, Dobes has a .917 save percentage in five starts and his 7.86 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) ranks first among goaltenders in that time, ahead of Jeremy Swayman (7.67), Logan Thompson (7.43), Sergei Bobrovsky (6.28), and Joel Hofer (5.98).

#20 At the other end of the goaltending spectrum, since the trade deadline, Colorado’s Mackenzie Blackwood has struggled, with a .791 save percentage in four starts and his -6.92 GSAx is worst in the league, below even Brandon Bussi (-5.05), Connor Hellebuyck (-4.76), Tristan Jarry (-4.74), and Jacob Markstrom (-4.68). It is a very difficult situation for fantasy managers to deal with a slumping goaltender at any time, but especially when it’s a goaltender for a very strong team, who can usually be relied upon to contribute wins, but when those slumps hit, the goaltending numbers can go south quickly and with fantasy playoffs coming soon, it’s tough to pin all of your season’s hopes on one guy. For this reason, having multiple options is always the best approach. If you can get away with not starting Blackwood or Bussi while they are in the midst of a slump, then it could improve potential outcomes.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – A look to the future with Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini then turn back the clock for Taylor and Taylor, and so much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 21 Nov 2025 14:26:51 +0000

CHICAGO, IL - NOVEMBER 18: Connor Bedard #98 of the Chicago Blackhawks looks on during the second period against the Calgary Flames on November 18, 2025 at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, look to the future with Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini then turn back the clock for Taylor and Taylor, and so much more!

#1 It’s not as if Chicago Blackhawks centre Connor Bedard is flying under the radar. He was the first overall pick in the 2023 Draft and won the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie for the 2023-2024 season. Last season was not as productive as hoped, though most of the blame seemed to fall on the lack of quality in his supporting cast, and that did create some questions heading into this, his third season in the NHL. Bedard has silenced any critics with 29 points (13 G, 16 A) in 20 games. After scoring on 11.2 percent of his shots in his first two seasons, Bedard has scored his 13 goals on 70 shots, a shooting percentage of 18.6 percent, which is high, but not outrageously so, particularly for someone with Bedard’s release. His on-ice shooting percentage is 13.0 percent, which again is high, but not outrageously high. The early indications are that Bedard’s improvement is at least somewhat for real, in part because he has increased his shot rate to 3.5 per game, after averaging 2.38 per game last season. His percentages will probably come down, so maybe he won’t continue at 1.45 points per game – almost a 119-point pace in 82 games – but a 100-point season is not out of the question.

#2 The first pick in the 2024 Draft, San Jose Sharks centre Macklin Celebrini has produced 31 points (13 G, 18 A) in his first 21 games and to see this kind of production in just his second season portends potential superstardom for the 19-year-old skater. The percentages would suggest exercising some caution with Celebrini’s projections over the rest of the season because he is scoring on 21.7 percent of his shots, after scoring on 10.6 percent as a rookie last season, and his on-ice shooting percentage is nearly 17 percent, a number that will not last for an entire season. Both players are outstanding and should be marquee players in the league for a long time, so there should be no reason to move them out in keeper formats, but given the statistics to this point, it appears that Celebrini’s hot start could be more likely to run into regression this season.

#3 At 34-years-old, Carolina Hurricanes left winger Taylor Hall has hit the stage of his career where he is filling a complementary role as a scoring forward, but that doesn’t mean he has ceased to provide value. In his past seven games, Hall has six points (3 G, 3 A) with 18 shots on goal while playing 15:45 per game. This comes on the heels of his managing just two assists in his previous 10 games, so he’s not easy to trust as a point producer. Some of that is because he has not recorded a power play point all season, with all 12 of his points this season coming at even strength. It might be difficult to believe in Hall at this point, but if he continues like this, belief will follow.

#4 Taken with the second pick in the 2010 Draft, one spot behind Hall, Tyler Seguin has enjoyed a productive career with fewer injuries. Seguin started slowly this season but, after he produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) in his past eight games, Seguin has climbed to 12 points (7 G, 5 A) in 21 games this season. He only has nine shots on goal in those eight games, which is troublingly low, but also has the benefit of quality linemates, as he is currently skating on a line with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz.

#5 Acquired from Montreal as part of the Noah Dobson trade, Emil Heineman has turned into such an offensive threat that he is getting time on the first line. With an assist in Thursday’s 5-0 win at Detroit, Heineman has contributed a point in eight (4 G, 4 A) of his past nine games. He only has 17 shots on goal in that time, so the point-per-game pace is likely to fade, but Heineman is making a case to play a bigger role for the Islanders and if he can stick in this spot in the lineup, he will be a valuable fantasy contributor.

#6 When Aleskander Barkov got injured, the Florida Panthers knew that they had a prime young player who could step into a bigger role. While no one is going to completely make up for Barkov’s absence, it did appear that Anton Lundell could handle more responsibility. He has stepped up all season, but in the past 12 games, Lundell has averaged 21:36 of ice time per game, contributing 11 points (3 G, 8 A) with 22 shots on goal. The Panthers have done a lot of line juggling this season due to injuries, and Lundell has most recently been skating on a line with Mackie Samoskevich and Brad Marchand.

#7 Veteran Toronto Maple Leafs blueliner Oliver Ekman-Larsson has not been a major offensive contributor in recent seasons, but he was a PP1 quarterback during his prime years in Arizona, so there is some offensive skill there, even if it has been suppressed. In his past nine games, Ekman-Larsson has contributed eight points (1 G, 7 A) while averaging more than 23 minutes of ice time per game. Ekman-Larsson is getting second unit power play time and is up to 15 points (2 G, 13 A) in 21 games this season, giving him a chance to surpass 40 points for the first time since 2018-2019.

#8 Philadelphia Flyers centre Christian Dvorak showed some offensive flashes in Montreal last season after battling injuries in the previous few seasons. He is playing significant minutes for Philadelphia this season and has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past six games. He may not sustain that kind of scoring surge over the long haul, but he played 17:59 at even strength on Thursday against St. Louis, leading all Philadelphia forwards in even-strength ice time, so that does make him a more compelling case, as is any player who has earned that kind of trust from his coach.

#9 One of the hottest names on the trade market is Calgary Flames defenceman Rasmus Andersson, who is ramping up his productivity, even in the midst of the Flames’ struggles, which should only enhance his value. Andersson has six points (2 G, 4 A) and eight shots on goal during a three-game point streak, and he is averaging 25:20 of ice time per game in his past seven games – apparently the Flames want to get the most out of him before sending him to a new location.

#10 Although his consistently low shot rates can be a reason for concern, and he’s never been confused with the most durable players in the league, New York Islanders left winger Jonathan Drouin is still a productive playmaking winger. Drouin has seven points (2 G, 5 A) with eight shots on goal in his past seven games and even when he was held off the scoresheet during the Islanders’ 5-0 win at Detroit on Thursday, he ranked second among Islanders forwards in ice time, behind only Mathew Barzal. It’s enough to make him appealing to managers in deeper leagues, so long as he is healthy and getting this much ice time.

#11 Taken with the 19th pick in the 2023 Draft by the Chicago Blackhawks, Oliver Moore played for two seasons at the University of Minnesota and started this season in the American Hockey League, where he tallied nine points (6 G, 3 A) in nine games. He has been promoted to Chicago, where he has contributed five points (2 G, 3 A) in nine games and is skating on the Blackhawks’ second line with Frank Nazar and Tyler Bertuzzi. He is more long-term potential than immediate value, but Moore might have enough upside for deeper league interest now.

#12 It’s looking like rookie Jesper Wallstedt is pushing Filip Gustavsson in the Minnesota Wild crease. Gustavsson has been great and not-so-great in recent seasons and has a .897 save percentage in 14 games this season, a level of play that opens the door for a challenger. Wallstedt has delivered a .926 save percentage in seven starts and that includes one disastrous start at San Jose when he allowed six goals on 25 shots. Every other start has been in the range of good to great.

#13 The Columbus Blue Jackets have been patient with goaltender Jet Greaves, a 24-year-old who was undrafted coming out of the Ontario Hockey League. After 158 games in the American Hockey League, during which he recorded a .909 save percentage, Greaves put himself in position to have a job in Columbus this season and now the question is how much of a workload should he be asked to handle? In his past five starts, Greaves has a .925 save percentage, lifting his season save percentage to .906 in 13 starts.

#14 With Thatcher Demko injured once again, opportunity knocks for Vancouver Canucks netminder Kevin Lankinen, who is admittedly not easy to recommend at the moment. Through a dozen appearances this season, Lankinen has a .886 save percentage, which is not good enough, but he had a .907 save percentage over the previous three seasons combined, and that level is typically good enough to hold a starting job in the league.

#15 The Colorado Avalanche have been easing Mackenzie Blackwood back into action following his recovery from a lower-body injury. Blackwood has appeared in three games this month and somehow has a 2-0-1 record with a .870 save percentage in those three contests. In the long run, he should regain the Avalanche net, but Scott Wedgewood has a .913 save percentage in 16 starts, so the Avs can afford to be patient with Blackwood.

#16 While the decline of the Nashville Predators doesn’t fall entirely on the goaltending, it’s worth pointing out that veteran netminder Juuse Saros had positive Goals Saved Above Average for every season of his career until last season and he’s underwater again this season. A save percentage of .892 isn’t going to cut it behind a team that ranks 21st with an Expected Goals Against Average of 3.13.

#17 The New York Rangers are getting the full J.T. Miller experience it appears. After trading to acquire the centre from the Vancouver Canucks last season, the Blueshirts named Miller their captain for this season, and they are not getting the kind of leadership that they might have hoped for. This week he was roundly criticized for an abysmal shift against Vegas that ultimately turned into a goal against the Rangers, and he was in a slump, scoring two points (1 G, 1 A) with 12 shots on goal in an eight-game span. On Thursday night, he scored a pair of goals in a 6-3 loss at Colorado and still found his way to a minus-4 by the end of the game when the Avalanche scored two goals into the empty Rangers net. Miller is a talented player who, when motivated, can take over games, but he also has a habit of checking out defensively in some of the most egregious displays. That probably makes him worth considering as a buy-low option right now, but that does come with a level of risk.

#18 In the past couple of seasons, Mackenzie Weegar has been a standout on the Calgary Flames blueline, producing 99 points (28 G, 71 A) in 163 games to go with stellar possession numbers. He has managed just four assists in 22 games this season and what’s wild about Weegar’s struggles is that his possession game remains excellent, with the Flames controlling 57 percent of five-on-five shot attempts with Weegar on the ice. However, he is getting killed by low percentages, including an on-ice shooting percentage of 4.0 percent and an on-ice save percentage of .869, which has contributed greatly to the Flames getting outscored 21-8 with Weegar on the ice at five-on-five. With the Flames giving Rasmus Andersson first-unit power play time, Weegar could be the likely beneficiary following an Andersson trade, presuming that Weegar would return to the top power play unit. In the meantime, he should at least be able to count on some positive regression in those percentages.

#19 It has been a tough time for NHL players and social occasions. New Jersey Devils standout centre Jack Hughes will miss eight weeks after requiring surgery on his finger following an incident at a rookie dinner. The Devils will continue to lean on Nico Hischier down the middle, with Dawson Mercer handling the second line centre role with Hughes out of the lineup. In Florida, left winger Eetu Luostarinen is out on a week-to-week basis after suffering burns in a barbecue incident. Luostarinen had eight points (2 G, 6 A) with 15 shots on goal in his last eight games before the injury. Both Mackie Samoskevich and Jesper Boqvist are looking at bigger roles on the left flank amid a run of injuries in South Florida.

#20 The Boston Bruins will be without top defenceman Charlie McAvoy indefinitely when he required facial surgery after a slapshot from Montreal Canadiens defenceman Noah Dobson hit him in the face. With McAvoy out, Hampus Lindholm becomes even more important for the Bruins, and he does have five points (1 G, 4 A) in his past six games. Dallas defenceman Thomas Harley is out week-to-week with a lower-body injury, which means Miro Heiskanen will get PP1 time at the point in Dallas. The Stars’ second unit sees Esa Lindell and journeyman Kyle Capobianco playing defence, though neither has much offensive value at this point.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – COLORADO AVALANCHE – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Sun, 21 Sep 2025 16:04:41 +0000

ST. LOUIS, MO -APRIL 05: Colorado Avalanche goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood (39) as seen before the start of the second period during a NHL game between the Colorado Avalanche and the St. Louis Blues on April 05, 2025, at Enterprise Center, St. Louis MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire)

Although Colorado had yet another outstanding season, the result of losing Game 7 to the Dallas Stars in the first round left a bitter taste in their mouths. Seeing former teammate Mikko Rantanen succeed against them and move on in the playoffs just weeks after having captain Gabriel Landeskog return to action after nearly two years made for a roller coaster of emotion. Despite all the ups and downs throughout the season, Colorado finished with 102 points and finished in third place in the Central Division. They were the third best team in the league in CorsiFor percentage (54.1) and were eighth in expected goals for percentage (52.4) just behind Winnipeg (52.44). A midseason trade for goalie Mackenzie Blackwood turned things around quickly for them when it was apparent Alexandar Georgiev wasn’t going to be able to turn his own game around. Now with their roster seemingly set, they’ll look to avoid a slow start that had them chasing the rest of the division down all season.

What’s Changed?

Trade deadline acquisition Brock Nelson re-signed for three years, $22.5 million. Adding Nelson worked well for them late in the year and he was eager to stay in Denver. The Avalanche made some changes to help loosen their cap constraints by sending Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood to Colorado for prospect Gavin Brindley and a pair of draft picks. That added flexibility let them sign Brent Burns on a one-year, $1 million deal, re-signed Josh Manson for two years, $7.9 million and Joel Kirivanta for one year, $1.25 million. They also added scoring winger Victor Olofsson from Vegas as a free agent for one year, $1.57 million. All of those players are specialists at what they do and with their key players already set, this is how a team with eyes on the Stanley Cup handles the roster.

What Would Success Look Like?

It was three years ago that the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup and they’ve had their gaze set on winning it again ever since. Instead, they’ve lost in the first round twice and the second round once and that’s what must change. After bowing out to Dallas this year, it brought about questions as to whether they needed to change coach Jared Bednar. These are like first-world problems for contending teams, but with the overall talent level the Avalanche has with Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Landeskog, Devon Toews and Martin Necas, they can win the Stanley Cup. The key to doing that will be winning the Central Division, however, and staying out of a potential first-round battle with Winnipeg, Dallas, St. Louis or Utah within the division.

What Could Go Wrong?

Any kind of extended losing streak or slump can lead to not winning the Central Division and having to slug it out in the first-round again. We’ve seen the Western Conference Playoffs sap the energy out of teams in the Central Division in each of the past three seasons, particularly in Dallas. Having to slog it out in long series to even get to the Western Conference Final is debilitating. The Avalanche’s depth up front took a hit this offseason when they traded Coyle and Wood and injuries could cause issues, especially if it means having to play the top players even more. If those guys have to empty the tank to just get to the playoffs, it’ll make life a lot harder once they do and make the dreams of winning the Cup again that much harder.

Top Breakout Candidate

The Avalanche are very much a veteran team but if there’s a young player who will have an opportunity to seize a role it’s forward Ivan Ivan. In 40 games with the Avalanche last season, Ivan had five goals and three assists while averaging 10:02 of ice time. That’s extreme fourth line deployment, but given the limited work, that’s decent offensive output. He wasn’t a big scorer in the AHL with the Colorado Eagles (43 points in 103 games), but at 23 years old, he’s someone who could be effective on the forecheck and frustrating opponents by getting on them as they try to carry up ice.

FORWARDS

Nathan MacKinnon

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	36	78	114	1.44

The beat goes on for Nathan Mackinnon as he recorded his third 110+ point season in a row, which was unbelievably a 24-point drop from what he posted the previous season. The main culprit was MacKinnon not finding the back of the net at the same frequency he did the past two seasons. Shooting percentage is usually the reason for this, but MacKinnon is typically a low-percentage shooter relatively to most elite players. What changed was the rate he shot the puck, seeing his shot rate go from 13.7 per game to 10. He is probably the only player in the league where 10 shots per game is a career low, but MacKinnon notoriously sets the bar high for himself. He’s also the only player who can have a “down” season and still be among the league’s best, as he was last year but the shot volume numbers he posted from 2021-24 are almost impossible to sustain. He also gained another high-volume shooter to work with in Martin Necas, so he had to spread the wealth a little more rather than take every shot, which clearly wasn’t a bad thing because he led the league in assists. The race for the best forward in the league is always neck-and-neck between him and McDavid. Both dominate the game in their own ways and MacKinnon does it through pure explosive speed, last year was the first time he took over games through playmaking rather than hitting you with a barrage of shots from all angles. Always raising the bar for himself, MacKinnon doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon.

Martin Necas

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	37	45	82	1.05

The midseason trade of Mikko Rantanen sparked some new life into the Avs offence with Martin Necas giving them another explosive player to pair with MacKinnon. They were one of the most exciting lines in the league when they played together. He gave them a different look than Rantanen, playing quicker and less deliberate in the offensive zone. Rantanen being the type who would look for open space and pick his spots while Necas would try to be MacKinnon 2.0 with cycling the puck high and taking shots from every angle. Colorado was the perfect landing spot for Necas after his torrid start with the Hurricanes, as the Avs were willing to give him the 20-21 minutes a night and top line deployment he wanted in Carolina. While he was exciting to watch with the Avs, Necas ended his Colorado tenure just under a point-per-game, which is where he has been for most of his career. He’s the type of player who can win games on his own for you when he’s hot, and cost you games when he goes cold, as he likes to have the puck on his stick all the time. It’s electrifying when he’s on a hot streak and a problem when he’s in a cold spell because he will try to win the game in one shift. Carolina opted to move on from him despite putting up career numbers and the Avs have one year to decide if Necas is a player they want for the long haul. His talent is undeniable.

Brock Nelson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	24	29	53	0.67

The Avs arduous quest for replacing Nazem Kadri took another turn when they moved on from Casey Mittelstadt in favor of longtime Islander Brock Nelson. He was the reliable second line pivot on Long Island for almost his entire career and was a model of consistency with nine season of scoring 20 or more goals. He’s a jack-of-all-trades player who can play on both special teams' units, but his knack for goal-scoring is what has kept him high in the lineup. Not just from going to the net, but from having the combination of patience and composure whenever he needs to make an extra move or two to score. Both off the rush and when he’s stationed in front of the net. His game is very direct and straight-forward when he gets to lead the rush, as he’ll usually take it to the net and try to deke the goalie out of his pads rather than look for the pass. Nelson has always had a unique combination of grit and skill for that reason because he will take hits to make plays by driving the net, but he can make those two or three slick moves to make the goaltender cheat. His all-around game is usually solid, although he took a step back defensively on a chaotic Isles team. Typically, one of their more trusted players on the second line, Nelson never handled the brunt of the defensive responsibilities reserved for the likes of Pageau and Cizikas, so he’s stepping into a similar role in Colorado with them needing a consistent scoring center on their second line in the worst way. If Nelson can stay 80% of the player he was on Long Island, Colorado will get what they want, but at 33 years old with a lot of miles logged, his best years are probably behind him.

Arturri Lehkonen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
73	24	23	47	0.64

Lehkonen was asked to try and fill the Landeskog role when the Avs captain started his long IR stint. Stapled to MacKinnon for most of his Colorado tenure, Lehkonen knows the ins and outs of how to produce in the Avs system, scoring a career high 27 goals last year with the majority of them coming at even strength. The addition of Necas gave Lehkonen a new wrinkle to prepare for, with a high-volume shooter added to the mix as opposed to Rantanen, who would rotate with him in front of the net. This forced Lehkonen to deal with more coverage in the net-front role, teams double teaming him, and he had to work extra hard to find loose pucks. Lehkonen also had to be more versatile in his own game, looking for an extra pass instead of jamming for rebounds. Filling the gaps of what your linemates aren’t doing is what being the third wheel on a line is all about, but you also have to be skilled enough to not get stuck playing one way. Lehkonen’s done an excellent job of that. He has better hands and is a quicker skater than most forwards who get stuck in the net-front spot, so it makes him a tougher player to defend, as he can catch you off-guard with some of the plays he makes. Combine that with how good he is on the penalty kill and it's hard to ask for a better complementary forward.

Val Nichushkin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
61	29	18	47	0.77

Nichushkin played only half of the season, missing the first month serving a suspension for violating the NHLPA Player Assistance Program and suffering an injury at the end of December. He was an integral part of the team’s Stanley Cup run years ago, and his last few seasons have been some of the most productive of his career, but the problem being he has yet to play a full season since arriving in Colorado all the way back in 2020. Injuries have been the story of Nichushkin’s career, dating back to his second year when he had hip surgery and it’s been something he’s had to deal with ever since. When healthy, he’s the ideal Colorado forward. A quick, powerful skater who will go to the net and has the hands to make the finishing plays on breakaways. Always one of the best players on the team at producing scoring chances, Nichushkin’s size, skill and nose for the net makes him a versatile guy in the Avs lineup. He can play on the top line with MacKinnon, but he can also drive his own line, regularly logging the 20-22 minutes a night with the Avs other star players. Staying in the lineup is the key for him.

Gabriel Landeskog

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	18	35	53	0.82

Landeskog made an emotional return to the Colorado lineup in the playoffs after three years on the shelf with a lingering knee injury that required several surgeries. The Avs weren’t sure when they would see their captain suit up for them again, so seeing him take the ice in Game 3 against Dallas was major lift to the organization. As fate has it, he scored in his second game back in the lineup on home ice and ended the playoffs with four points in five games. The last time we saw Landeskog play a full-season, he was scoring at over a point-per-game pace, which was a regular theme with him in his late 20’s. How he performs after three years out of the game is anyone’s guess. His longtime linemate in Mikko Rantanen is gone but he has mastered the art of playing in the Avalanche system and what you need to do to complement their stars. Landeskog’s specialty for years has being going to the net and scoring a high number of goals from having the puck bounce off him. Landeskog became less of a puck-carrier and someone who drives the bus in the neutral zone as MacKinnon’s game started to enter another stratosphere, so he’s had to pick up the intricacies of playing away from the puck. Always being around MacKinnon when he needs support and in front of the net when the Avs do their three-man high cycle in the zone. It’s just a matter of how quickly Landeskog can get back to full speed after so much time off.

Ross Colton

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	17	21	38	0.47

A top-heavy team all season, the Avs felt the loss of Ross Colton when he was out of the lineup for two months with a broken foot. They didn’t have him for the playoffs either after an injury took him out of Game 1 against Dallas. He might be just a depth guy, but he was one of the few sources of secondary scoring they had early in the season when he was healthy. He made a name for himself with the Lightning as a tenacious, bottom-six player who can provide some jolt to your offence. He loves shooting the puck and is savvy with getting himself open for good chances. He’s skilled enough to carry his own line, his love for carrying the puck making him a good fit for the Avs system where transition play dominates. Not a physical player in the sense of delivering big hits, but he doesn’t mind taking hits to make plays, always battling his way to the front of the net and fighting for positioning to get loose pucks. A depth player you take for granted until he’s not there anymore, as was the case for Colorado early in the season, because he can still tilt the ice for your team even when he’s not scoring. This season could tell a lot about him with Brock Nelson taking the 2C spot and Jack Drury possibly bringing more upside to the table as a 3C, pushing Colton to the wing or in a more defensive oriented role.

Jack Drury

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	9	18	27	0.34

While he was the less exciting part of the Necas-Rantanen trade, the Avs value Jack Drury’s contributions as a defensive player. Right off the bat, they used him on the penalty kill and relatively high in the lineup until the midseason trades for Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle. Drury is never a drag when he’s on the ice, he sees the game well and is always in the right spot to make the next play, excelling at making one-touch passes for skilled linemates and playing the high forward to keep long possessions going. He doesn’t have the finishing touch or skill to be a regular in the top six, not handling the puck well when he makes a play under pressure and an easy shooter to read even when he gets space. Colorado did make great use of Drury as one of the guys they play with a lead, moving him up in the lineup when they needed to kill the clock. Sometimes you need players who thrive in the doldrums of the game to make sure nothing happens while they’re on the ice. It’s hard to find players better than Drury for that. Colorado tried to untap some of his skill while he played higher in the lineup, but with Nelson re-signed, Drury will be properly slotted on the third line.

Logan O'Connor

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
64	12	12	24	0.38

Sometimes it’s easy to mistake O’Connor for MacKinnon when you’re watching the Avs. You see the 25 and think it’s 29 because he’s skating like lightning just as MacKinnon would do. The similarities stop there as O’Connor doesn’t have close to the same skillset, but he doesn’t have to in his role as a penalty kill workhorse. One of the more heralded defensive forwards in the NHL, O’Connor uses his speed to defend better than anyone, being an annoying presence on the forecheck and while defending. He is constantly in the face of players trying to cycle the puck and has a knack for turning turnovers into breakaways. Whether he scores on them or not is usually a secondary concern for the Avs. Although his offence has started to come around a little the last two years with back-to-back 10+ goal seasons. Anything more than that will be gravy. How effective he will be after off-season hip surgery, however, is one thing the Avs must be concerned with considering that speed and acceleration are big parts of his game. His return to the lineup is slated for November at the latest.

DEFENCE

Cale Makar

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	30	64	94	1.16

The most explosive, dynamic defenceman in the league, Makar took home his second Norris after being in a close race with Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes all season. He is the gold standard for the modern NHL defenceman, putting up unprecedented offensive numbers his entire career. Makar always looks like he’s playing a different game than everyone else, quickly getting from one side of the rink to the other to keep pucks in or break the defense down. It’s easy to take it for granted when you see it every night because Makar makes a lot of difficult things look routine. Not just walking the blue line but moving laterally or backwards in the offensive zone while controlling the puck on a string to keep the cycle going and while dropping a short pass to a forward that’s skating downhill at full speed. It’s things like that which make the Avs offence deadly. Having the elite forwards also helps, but Makar has the confidence to play like this even behind the Avs fourth line. There are some defencemen who can skate like Makar and there are a few who can handle the puck like him, but there aren’t any who can do both at the same time, which is what makes him a special player. This isn’t even getting into how he can score from distance, having pinpoint accuracy on shots from 50 feet away, which also makes him different from other high-scoring defencemen that rely on creeping in from the point or using the booming slapshot. Makar is truly one of a kind.

Devon Toews

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	8	35	43	0.57

Adding Devon Toews back in 2021 was the key to unlocking Makar’s potential. Not just as a player to be his safety valve, but a partner who can skate with him and not get overwhelmed with Makar starts to dance and take risks in the offensive zone. Toews’ skating is heralded as his best asset, as he loves playing the free safety role in the offensive zone with intercepting clearing attempts. His passing is right behind that, and it makes him a critical part of how the Avs like to attack through the neutral zone. Since Toews can’t keep every puck in the zone, what he likes to do instead is allow the puck to get over the blue line, wait for everyone to tag up and zip a pass to a teammate streaking into the zone. This reload method is an integral part of the Avs offence and Toews is part of what makes it go. He’s not the special talent Makar is, but he’s a complete defenceman who can do everything. He defends with his legs and by keeping the play in front of him better than anyone and excels at shutting off plays at his own blue line. Offensively, he complements Makar nicely as someone who can read off him and is very dangerous when he can creep in from the point and get his wrister on net. There’s always a lot of focus on what Makar is doing in the offensive zone, so Toews can creep in unnoticed and score some sneaky goals this way. Point production is never the concern with Toews, as he is Colorado’s defensive MVP.

Brent Burns

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	9	27	36	0.44

Last year was the first time Burns didn’t hit 30 points in a full season since 2012, his first year in San Jose. Father time has caught up to the now 40-year-old as the explosivity to his game isn’t there anymore and he saw his role shift in Carolina to more of a shutdown role to fill the absence of Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei. In the grand scheme, he did fine. He can still do a lot of the disruptive work in the defensive zone when defending the cycle, always getting a stick on a play and moving the puck out of harm's way. Defending one-on-one is where he struggled and it was more of a problem last season with him playing the tough matchups. He still plays very high in the zone to challenge attacking forwards and he either gets them or misses and gives up a Grade A chance the other way. He can still skate smoothly, but doesn’t accelerate well, so he ended up on the wrong end of some highlights from getting beat to the inside often. Nothing much has changed about how he plays offensively, if he gets the puck it’s going to the net. He saw less of a reward for it offensively last season, but it’s something that should intrigue Colorado fans with how many forwards they have who are skilled at tipping pucks. Burns can still play at a high level at his age, so it’s all a matter of when his age starts to catch up with him. He might avoid hitting the wall longer than most with how much of a physical specimen he is, but it’s something that comes for every player eventually.

Samuel Girard

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
71	2	18	20	0.28

Now, one of Colorado’s longest-tenured players, it doesn’t feel like that long ago when Girard burst onto the scene in his rookie season. He was a nimble, exciting puck-moving defenceman that had a lot of poise and confidence we didn’t typically see from smaller blueliners in the NHL. Once Makar arrived, Girard was old news and became a mainstay on the Avs second pair, a role that he’s had on lockdown for the past five years. It’s not abnormal for a smaller defenceman to play as much as Girard does in a shutdown role, but he is on the extreme end of the height spectrum, so he’s slotted in a unique way for a player of his stature. It’s easy for him to get lost in the shuffle watching Colorado because of Toews and Makar, but Girard’s puck-moving is as good as it was in his rookie year. He’s improved by playing a safer game, trusting his partners to make the next play more and not trying to do everything himself. He complements the forwards nicely in the offensive zone but doesn’t get the same level of opportunities playing behind the second and third lines. Defending the rush is his one sore spot and opposing teams tend to go after him more because of his size, doubly when he’s paired with Josh Manson instead of Sam Malinski. Girard likes to defend with his body and isn’t the best with timing the hip checks or anticipating where the play is going if he has multiple reads with the puck. It’s something that Colorado’s always had to work around with him, but he’s still a solid 3rd or 4th option on the Avs blue line.

Goal

Mackenzie Blackwood

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
57	33	15	4	5	0.909	2.50

Very few teams will enter the upcoming season having completely scrapped their goaltending tandem and starting from scratch. One of those, though, is the Colorado Avalanche, who bounced both Justus Annunen and Alexandar Georgiev following tough performances and brought in new names to hopefully take the reins for the time being. Perhaps the most exciting name in the depth chart now is Mackenzie Blackwood, who may have finally found his home in Colorado following an up-and-down career in New Jersey and a brief stint helping the San Jose Sharks with their rebuild. He arrived in Colorado last season and immediately made an impact, finishing the year with one of his best statistical performances since going pro in 2017. He's a good fit on paper, too, with both the big physical presence the Avalanche tend to prefer in net and a strong positional game that makes it hard for shooters to pull him out of position. He seemed to regain some of his rhythm during his time with San Jose after looking like he'd lost his timing in New Jersey, and he was arguably the biggest factor in Colorado going from a team that might need to retool to a team that looked ready to push for the playoffs once more.

He'll be accompanied by Scott Wedgewood for the time being, making for a fun Devils reunion in net that should keep Colorado's netminding consistent and easy to work with for the defence in front. But don't be surprised if Trent Miner gets a look or two this year, particularly if either Wedgewood or Blackwood end up needing to spend time on IR.

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Ovechkin, McDavid in the hunt for Gretzky’s records – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 28 Dec 2024 19:45:13 +0000

I remember almost a decade ago writing about the possibility of Alex Ovechkin someday breaking Wayne Gretzky’s goal record. It wasn’t in the context of a prediction that it would happen, but instead, it was about it was about what would need to happen for it to be possible. While Ovechkin surpassing Gretzky seems all but inevitable at this point, it’s taken remarkably good health -- his time missed this campaign due to a fractured fibula notwithstanding -- and complete defiance of Father Time in the back half of his career to make this possible.

Ovechkin never had a campaign like Gretzky enjoyed in his prime, but Gretzky fell hard in his 30s from a goal-scoring perspective, never hitting the 40-goal milestone after the 1990-91 campaign and collecting 176 goals over his last 562 career appearances after accumulating a jaw-dropping 718 markers over his first 925 games.

However you slice it, surpassing Gretzky’s goal record is still incredible and something that would have seemed impossible for anyone when Ovechkin started his NHL career. It made me wonder, though, if Gretzky’s goal record can be overcome, is there a world in which his all-time points record could be bested too?

Gretzky was an even more dominant playmaker than a goal scorer and finished with 2,857 points. To date, no one else has even crossed the 2,000 mark with Jaromir Jagr coming the closest at 1,921. Still, we seem to be in a new age of elite forwards. From 1996-97 through 2021-22, no player recorded 130 points in a single season. In 2022-23, Connor McDavid ended that by scoring 64 goals and 153 points, and then Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon and McDavid all finished with over 130 points last year -- 144, 140 and 132, respectively.

It remains to be seen if anyone will breach this mark again in 2024-25, but MacKinnon (14 goals, 60 points in 37 games), Leon Draisaitl (24, 52 in 34) and Mikko Rantanen (20, 53 in 37) all have a shot. I also wouldn’t rule out McDavid breaching that milestone for the third straight year. Although he’s behind the pack with 15 goals and 49 points through 31 outings, McDavid has found his rhythm by providing 12 goals and 39 points over his past 20 contests.

So could any of them match Gretzky? Although it’s anticlimactic, the answer is almost certainly not. McDavid is the most interesting of them, but even in his case, he’s at 350 goals and 1,031 points in his age-28 season. By the end of Gretzky’s age-28 campaign, he already had 637 goals and 1,837 points. Like Ovechkin did, perhaps McDavid will enjoy greater longevity than Gretzky, but even then, the gap is too great. Let’s assume McDavid produces at a 120-point pace over the next 13 campaigns, including 2024-25. Even in that extremely unlikely scenario, that would leave McDavid with 2,542 points -- more than 300 shy of Gretzky.

No active player is in a better position than McDavid either. MacKinnon and Kucherov are both older than McDavid and have fewer career points. The Great One’s points record appears safe for at least another generation. Still, if McDavid does stay fairly healthy and continues to perform at an elite level into his late 30s, then a run at 2,000 points might be viable. That alone would be one of the greatest achievements in hockey history.

It's also arguably harder to score now than it was in Gretzky’s day. When Gretzky set the record with 215 points in a single season in 1985-86, the league average in goals per team per game was 3.97. The best McDavid’s ever seen by that metric is 3.14 in 2022-23 (it’s down to 3.03 this year). Just for the fun of it, let’s do some back-of-the-napkin calculations to attempt to normalize McDavid and Gretzky’s offensive contributions relative to their era. Do not take this seriously as these are some incredibly simplified calculations, but I’ve regressed or enhanced the scoring of each player for each season by a percentage equal to the gap between that campaign’s league average from 3.00 goals per team per game. For example, Gretzky’s 137 points in 1979-80 when the league was scoring at a rate of 3.51 becomes 117 points.

This little experiment is unquestionably to McDavid’s benefit. I was just interested to see if taking this extremely raw approach would be enough to close the gap. The answer is that Gretzky still wins handily. Even under those circumstances, Gretzky would have recorded 1,304 points over his first nine campaigns, including six consecutive campaigns of at least 150 points from 1981-82 through 1986-87. Gretzky’s 215-point campaign is brought down to 162 points, but that still tops anything that McDavid has done, whose 153-point campaign is lessened to 146 points. For McDavid’s part, he has 993 points over his first nine campaigns (running through 2023-24) under this adjusted standard.

Gretzky’s career point total would also still stand at 2,392 (keep in mind, league scoring did begin diminishing in the latter half of Gretzky’s career, so that period wasn’t diminished as much by these calculations as his early seasons), making it difficult for McDavid to overcome.

That goes to show how good Gretzky was, even when compared against the biggest star of his generation, McDavid. There is one record McDavid could realistically take from Gretzky, though: The all-time points total in an Oilers jersey. Gretzky accumulated 1,669 points during his time with Edmonton, and if McDavid re-signs with Edmonton after his existing contract expires in the summer of 2026, which seems reasonable after the Oilers locked up Draisaitl, then McDavid should be able to eventually become Edmonton’s all-time leading scorer.

Calgary Flames

Tues vs. VAN, Thu vs. UTA, Sat vs. NSH

The Flames have a somewhat light schedule with three games next week, but they’ll spend all that time at home. Calgary will host the Canucks on Tuesday, Utah on Thursday and the Predators on Saturday. Vancouver is having a solid campaign, but Utah and Nashville aren’t currently in a playoff position.

Jonathan Huberdeau has been fantastic in recent weeks, providing six goals and 13 points across his past 10 appearances. I still don’t love him long-term, though. Even after factoring in his hot streak, his 25 points through 34 appearances isn’t special, and while his 13 goals in 2024-25 is more impressive, that’s on the back of a likely unsustainable 21.7 shooting percentage -- his career average is 12.5 -- so I think it’s just a matter of time before his scoring pace slows. With that disclaimer out of the way, he's certainly a nice player to have for now.

Matthew Coronato is also hot, supplying two goals and four assists across his active four-game point streak. Taken with the No. 13 overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, Coronato excelled with AHL Calgary in 2023-24, recording 15 goals and 42 points over 41 appearances, but he’s been somewhat hit-and-miss at the NHL level this campaign, totaling nine goals and 18 points through 29 outings. In a couple of years, Coronato might be a mainstay on fantasy lineups, but for now, he’s more of a streaming option.

If you’re making a short-term play on Coronato, it’d be worth it to consider his linemate, Blake Coleman, too. The 33-year-old Coleman has eight goals and 17 points in 34 outings, but he’s also hot with three goals and six points over his last five games.

Carolina Hurricanes

Tues @ CBJ, Thu @ FLA, Sat vs. MIN, Sun vs. PIT

The Hurricanes have a strong 21-12-1 record, but that’s due to their strong start. More recently, Carolina has been a middling 7-7-1, so the Hurricanes have room for improvement as the calendar turns to 2025. They’ll look to get going on the road against Columbus on Tuesday and Florida on Thursday. Afterward, the Hurricanes will return home to host Minnesota on Saturday and Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Although Carolina has won just one of its last four games, some players have been effective over that stretch. Brent Burns had a goal and an assist in Friday’s 4-2 loss to New Jersey, marking his first multi-point game since Nov. 5. He has three goals and 11 points through 35 appearances, putting him on pace to finish with less than 30 points for just the second time dating back to 2013-14.

Losing his spot on the first power-play unit to Shayne Gostisbehere has significantly hurt him. Burns had 20 of his 43 points with the man advantage in 2023-24, but he has no power-play points this campaign. In terms of 5-on-5 points, he’s probably going to end up roughly in line with his total from last season, so his drop is pretty much entirely driven by that change in his usage. That’s worth keeping in mind in case circumstances result in him getting on the first power-play unit later in the campaign.

Sebastian Aho hasn’t had any problems collecting power-play points, already accumulating 14 of them in 2024-25. He’s also been a reliable contributor, being held off the scoresheet just three times over his past 16 outings (six goals, 19 points). He has 11 markers and 36 points in 35 outings overall. As long as he stays healthy, the 27-year-old should reach the 80-point milestone for the third time in four campaigns.

Jack Roslovic isn’t going to match Aho in terms of total points this season, but Roslovic has been a regular contributor recently. He has recorded a point in four of his past five appearances (one goal, four points). Interestingly, Roslovic has also recorded over 16 minutes in each of Carolina’s past two games, well above his season average of 13:40 of ice time across his first 33 outings. We’ll have to see if he continues to get that kind of workload, or if he regresses back toward his norm.

Colorado Avalanche

Tues vs. WPG, Thu vs. BUF, Sat vs. MTL

The Avalanche have been red hot recently, posting a 7-2-0 record from Dec. 7-22. They’ll look to maintain that strong play next week in home matches against Winnipeg, Buffalo and Montreal on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.

Although injuries were certainly a factor in Colorado’s up-and-down play early in the campaign, goaltending was a major problem. Recently, netminding has been part of Avalanche’s strength. Scott Wedgewood has looked fantastic since joining the Avalanche from Nashville, posting a 1.93 GAA and .932 save percentage across six appearances with Colorado. Similarly, Mackenzie Blackwood has been dominant with the Avalanche with a 3-1-0 record, 2.03 GAA and .931 save percentage in four starts since being acquired from San Jose.

Colorado made a big bet towards the idea that this new combo is everything that they want it to be by inking Blackwood to a five-year, $26.25 million contract extension Friday. That’s a startling commitment to a 28-year-old goaltender with a 3.05 GAA over 219 career appearances. However, the Avalanche’s decision isn’t without merit.

While Blackwood didn’t look nearly as good with the Sharks -- he had a 3.00 GAA and .909 save percentage in 19 appearances before the trade -- he was doing well relative to the team in front of him. His goals saved above expected is plus-5.9 this campaign, per Moneypuck, which is good for 16th place. That suggests he’s been in the upper half of starters in 2024-25 when you separate him from the defense in front of him. It’s a similar story in 2023-24. He had an ugly 3.45 GAA and .899 save percentage in 44 outings with the Sharks, but San Jose was terrible, and Blackwood’s plus-2.4 goals saved above expected last campaign suggests he held his own under very difficult circumstances.

Blackwood was especially good in 2019-20. His 22-14-8 record, 2.77 GAA and .915 save percentage in 47 appearances might not scream dominant, but he ranked fifth in the league in goals saved above expected (plus-7.9) that year. It hasn’t always been good -- he struggled in that metric in 2020-21 and 2021-22, but when his career has been taken as a whole, it’s fair to say that he has been consistently put into difficult circumstances and made the most of them. Now in Colorado, which has been solid defensively, ranking 11th in xGA/60 at 2.93 this season, Blackwood is finally in a position to put up great top-line numbers in addition to solid analytics.

Dallas Stars

Tues vs. BUF, Thu vs. OTT, Sat vs. UTA

Dallas will spend the upcoming week at home, hosting the Sabres on Tuesday, the Senators on Thursday and Utah on Saturday. Of that competition, only Ottawa (18-14-2) entered Friday’s action in possession of a playoff spot.

The Stars have managed to score no more than three goals in any of their past seven games, and they’ve produced two or fewer in five of those contests. Losing Tyler Seguin (hip), potentially for the rest of the regular season, has been felt, but Matt Duchene has also fallen hard from his hot start. After scoring 12 goals and 27 points through 22 outings, the 33-year-old has just a goal and three points over his past 12 appearances. Getting Duchene going again will be critical to the Stars’ long-term success.

At least Jason Robertson has done well lately. His seven goals and 23 points through 34 games is still well below what you’d want to see out of a player of that caliber, but he does have two goals and eight points across his past eight appearances.

Roope Hintz has also found his scoring touch, netting nine goals over his past 16 outings, including four goals in four games from Dec. 16-23. Hopefully, the holiday break didn’t cool him off -- he was held off the scoresheet Friday, though he did record four shots.

The lack of offense has weighed on goaltender Jake Oettinger. He’s held the competition to 16 goals over his past seven appearances but has a mediocre 3-4-0 record over that span due to the lack of support.

New Jersey Devils

Tues @ ANA, Wed @ LAK, Sat @ SJS

The Devils are on the road next week, but the competition is favorable. They’ll play in Anaheim on Tuesday, LA on Wednesday and San Jose on Saturday.

Being on the road hasn’t been much of a problem for the Devils anyway. They have a 12-5-0 away record compared to 12-6-3 at home. Not every player has traveled well, though.

Timo Meier is a great forward to utilize in New Jersey with his eight goals and 18 points through 20 appearances, but he’s been limited to five goals and nine points on the road, so you might want to exercise caution with him next week. Ondrej Palat is a major offensive force in either scenario, but he’s also noticeably better at home (four goals and 10 points in 20 appearances) than on the road (three goals and five points in 17 outings).

On the flip side, Dougie Hamilton has been somewhat quiet in New Jersey with two goals and eight points across 21 outings, but he’s accumulated three goals and 15 points in 17 games during the Devils’ travels. Paul Cotter has held his own on the road too with five goals and nine points over 17 appearances, but his home production stands at just two goals and four points through 21 outings.

Jacob Markstrom is an interesting case. He’s 9-4-0 with a 2.09 GAA on the road and 10-2-2 with a 2.13 GAA at home, so clearly, he provides value in either scenario. However, his save percentage is starkly different at home (.898) compared to the road (.926). The Devils do allow significantly fewer shots at home (23.0) than they do away (27.6), so it seems Markstrom adjusts well to the higher workload, and his save percentage reflects that.

New York Rangers

Mon @ FLA, Thu vs. BOS, Sat @ WSH, Sun @ CHI

The Rangers have been in freefall, dropping 13 of their past 17 games. They’ll try to end the slump next week, starting with a game in Florida on Monday. New York will then host the Bruins on Thursday before playing in Washington on Saturday and in Chicago on Sunday.

If you’re looking for hot skaters, you’ll need to go elsewhere. No Rangers player has amassed more than two points over the team’s past six games. That’s just sad for a team with this much talent. Igor Shesterkin is doing well, posting a 2.63 GAA and a stellar .926 save percentage over his last six outings, but the Rangers have done so poorly offensively, that the 28-year-old netminder has just a 2-4-0 record over that span.

Outside of Shesterkin, is there anything at all here for fantasy managers? If you’re looking for help in other categories, then yes. The Rangers’ slump hasn’t impacted Vincent Trocheck on the draw, for example. He has been among the most dominant centers in that category this year, winning 393 of his 641 opportunities (61.3 percent), including 69 of 117 across (59.0 percent) the Rangers’ anemic past six games. Sam Carrick doesn’t get as many chances on the draw, but he has a 58.3 percent success rate across 283 faceoff opportunities this year and is 39-for-66 (59.1 percent) over the last six contests.

Will Cuylle is also still out there throwing his body around. He ranks fourth in hits with 127 and dished out 15 over the aforementioned six-game span. Trocheck has been even more aggressive in that span with 21 hits, bringing him up to 112 overall, which is good for 12th in the league.

Cuylle was especially good in fantasy earlier in the campaign because he was bringing offense as well as grit. He has been limited to four points (two goals) over his past 11 appearances, so the multi-dimensional aspect of his game is gone, but he has been getting tested on the first power-play unit recently, which is a rarity for him -- he basically wasn’t used with the man advantage at all over the first 16 games of the season -- and perhaps that will help spark him. If nothing else, at least he's bringing something to the table during the Rangers’ team-wide slump, which is more than could be said for some other members of the squad.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Tues vs. NYI, Thu @ NYI, Sat vs. BOS, Sun vs. PHI

The Maple Leafs will begin next week with a home-and-away series against the Islanders on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. They’ll then host Boston on Saturday and the Flyers on Sunday.

Injuries have been a recurring storyline for the Maple Leafs this season, and right now there are two of great importance: Auston Matthews’ upper-body issue and Anthony Stolarz’s knee injury.

Stolarz’s knee problem is the clearer cut of them. He underwent a procedure to remove a loose body from the area on Dec. 18 and will be unavailable until mid-to-late January as a result. That puts more pressure on Joseph Woll, who has unfortunately gone cold at a bad time. Woll has allowed at least three goals in his four starts from Dec. 14-23, though he did hold the struggling Red Wings to two goals on 25 shots Friday. Matt Murray is also getting a chance to help fill the void, and he stopped 24 of 27 shots en route to a 6-3 victory against the struggling Sabres on Dec. 20.

Toronto was in a four-way tie for first in goals allowed per game with 2.55 through Dec. 12 because of how reliable the Woll-Stolarz duo has been for much of this campaign. Toronto has looks more vulnerable in terms of goaltending now, but perhaps the win against Detroit signaled the end of Woll’s cold spell. Even if it hasn’t, Stolarz should be back in the coming weeks.

The greater concern is Matthews. He missed nine straight games from Nov. 5-27 because of knee problems and those issues have pushed him back to the sidelines. By the time next week begins, Matthews will have missed Toronto’s past four games due to the injury, and it’s not clear when he’ll be back.

The priority is to get Matthews healthy for the playoffs, whatever that takes, especially because the 22-12-2 Leafs seem to be able to win even without Matthews. Still, the battle for playoff position in the Atlantic Division is fierce, and even if the absence of Matthews doesn’t cost Toronto many wins, it might still end up playing a role in the difficulty of the Leafs’ first-round matchup.

From a fantasy perspective, this is unfortunately the risk that you take with Matthews. He’s one of the best goal-scorers of his era and perhaps all time, but injuries have been a recurring problem. The 2023-24 campaign was just the second time in his career that he played at least 75 games.

Winnipeg Jets

Mon vs. NSH, Tues @ COL, Thu vs. ANA, Sat vs. DET

The Jets have a good schedule ahead of them. They’ll host Nashville on Monday, play in Colorado on Tuesday and then return home for matches against Anaheim and Detroit on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. Colorado is the only one of those adversaries with a winning record.

At the top, we highlighted just how amazing Wayne Gretzky was by showing just how big the gap is between his totals and McDavid’s potential career finish, even under ideal circumstances for McDavid. In terms of goaltending, the equivalent to Gretzky is arguably Martin Brodeur. In addition to being the all-time winningest goaltender -- no one comes even close to Brodeur’s regular-season total of 691 career victories -- Brodeur won the Vezina Trophy four times and stands as the last back-to-back winner of the trophy in 2007 and 2008.

Connor Hellebuyck might be the next to achieve that incredible feat. He won the award in 2024 after posting a 37-19-4 record, 2.39 GAA and .921 save percentage across 60 regular-season games, and he’s looking even better in 2024-25. Through 28 starts, Hellebuyck has a 22-5-1 record, 2.07 GAA and .927 save percentage. That gives him a clear edge over his closest competitors, Jacob Markstrom (19-6-2, 2.11 GAA and .914 save percentage) and Filip Gustavsson (16-5-3, 2.26 GAA and .922 save percentage). Hellebuyck also won the trophy in 2020, so he’d be just one behind Brodeur overall.

The 31-year-old Hellebuyck has continued to cruise as the campaign progresses, posting a 7-0-1 record, 1.85 GAA and .929 save percentage over his past eight games. It helps that the Jets have given him plenty of support offensively (they rank second in goals per game with 3.69) and are adequate defensively (they rank 15th in xGA/60 at 2.96).

On the offensive side of things, the top line of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi is on fire, supplying nine, eight and seven points, respectively, over the past four games. Connor is having the best campaign among those three overall with 21 goals and 47 points through 36 games, though Scheifele isn’t far behind with 21 goals and 42 points across 36 outings. There has been a bit of inconsistency with this unit in terms of its offensive production, but not to the extent where it’s been a meaningful problem. As long as the trio stays healthy, which was an issue last season, those three should go down as one of the top lines of 2024-25.

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – What to make of the Buffalo Sabres – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 14 Dec 2024 16:41:42 +0000

_{ST. LOUIS, MO - FEBRUARY 25: Sabres center Tage Thompson (72) during a NHL game between the Buffalo Sabres and the St. Louis Blues on February 25, 2022, at Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire),}

How should we define the 2024-25 Buffalo Sabres? On paper, they’re not a terrible team. Tage Thompson is an elite goal scorer, and Alex Tuch is a good first-line forward and well suited to being Thompson’s accomplish. Rasmus Dahlin, though currently out with a back injury, is a high-end offensive blueliner, and the Sabres also have two promising young defensemen on the rise in Owen Power and Bowen Byram. In net, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has shown that he can be a solid option.

This isn’t a good team either, though. The Sabres do have some offensive depth, especially with Jason Zucker enjoying a comeback campaign (seven goals and 20 points through 29 appearances), but their overall scoring still isn’t anything special. The blueliners do have a mixture of talent and promise, but as a squad, the Sabres have struggled on defense, as evidenced by the team ranking 22nd in xGA/60 (3.13) per Moneypuck. Those shortcomings have trickled down to Luukkonen, who has an 8-8-3 record, 2.79 GAA and .903 save percentage in 20 starts despite a passable plus-2.6 goals saved above expected.

More than anything, Buffalo is inconsistent. Sometimes this group can click, which led to Buffalo looking like a potential contender for a playoff spot earlier in the campaign, but other times they fall apart. Buffalo has lost its last eight games, dropping its record to 11-14-4.

That kind of inconsistency would be more forgivable if Buffalo was a rebuilding team, but is that still an appropriate definition for the Sabres? They certainly do still have younger players like defensemen Power and Byram, forwards Dylan Cozens and Zach Benson as well as goaltender Devon Levi honing his game in the minors. None of those five have celebrated their 24th birthday yet, so it’s reasonable to believe their game will continue to grow.

At the same time, Tuch and Thompson are already in their prime, albeit in the early stages at 28 and 27 years old, respectively. Dahlin is still young but also in his seventh campaign, so ideally this is a foundation that should have started to get results by now.

But those results never come. You could easily make an argument that this is a rebuilding team even with those three either in or approaching their prime, but you could have made the argument that basically every Sabres team over the last decade has been a rebuilding squad. At some point, you need to transition from rebuild.

It’s been nine years since Jack Eichel was selected as the No. 2 overall pick to be the Sabres’ future. It’s been six years since Dahlin was selected as the No. 1 overall pick to headline Buffalo’s defense. It’s been four years since Power was taken with the top pick, giving the Sabres a potentially amazing blue-line duo. It’s been three years since that relationship soured to the point where Buffalo traded him to Vegas.

Buffalo hasn’t participated in a single playoff game over that span. That’d be bad enough, but the drought dates back even further. When Buffalo was last a playoff team in 2011, Tomas Vanek was the Sabres’ leading scorer and Thompson’s age. Tyler Ennis was among the team’s promising young forwards while Tyler Myers was a sophomore coming off a Calder Trophy-winning campaign. Ryan Miller was in his prime, having won the Vezina Trophy the previous year. Lindy Ruff was the bench boss… well, actually, that’s true now too… but there were six bench bosses for Buffalo between Ruff’s tenure with the team that ended during the 2012-13 campaign and his current assignment with the team.

The Sabres’ playoff appearance drought is the longest in NHL history. That’s got to way on the team, and you have to wonder if it will eventually lead to talented players getting frustrated in Buffalo as it has for others in the past. Still, it’s not as if this is a doomed team.

As stated at the top, there are positives to be found in this roster, and the place we’re judging the Sabres from now might be at or near their low point. There’s still season enough for them to turn this thing around. If they don’t, there is still hope for the future with this young group…even if that promise feels a little hollow after so many other failed rebuild attempts.

Calgary Flames (Tue vs. BOS, Thu vs. OTT, Sat vs. CHI)

The Flames have just three games scheduled for next week, but all those contests are at home, and it’s a pretty favorable schedule. Boston, which the Flames will host Tuesday, did have a 7-2-0 stretch from Nov. 21-Dec. 7, but the Bruins’ have fallen back after big losses to Winnipeg and Seattle over their past two games. After facing the Bruins, Calgary will host Ottawa and Chicago on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. Neither of those adversaries are in a playoff position.

Jonathan Huberdeau’s eight-year, $84 million contract is looking like it might go down as one of the worst contracts in recent memory, but he’s at least hot at the moment, providing four goals and nine points across his past six appearances. Will he keep that up? It’s possible, but it’s hard to get too excited. His 11 goals and 21 points through 30 outings overall still puts him on pace to get 57 points, which isn’t bad, but it’s well below the type of numbers he put up in Florida. Additionally, he has a 21.6 shooting percentage compared to his career average of 12.5, so if anything, Huberdeau’s benefited from some good puck luck and is more likely to slow as the campaign progresses than maintain that overall scoring pace.

If Huberdeau has potentially overperformed, would Andrei Kuzmenko be at the other end of the spectrum? No one expects him to repeat his 39-goal, 74-point performance from 2022-23, but is his goal and 10 points through 28 outings in 2024-25 simply the result of bad luck? His 3.3 shooting percentage is unusually low, but I’m more concerned about his decline in shots. He’s averaging just 4.1 shots/60, down from 6.8 last year.

Of his 30 shots this campaign, 19 have been fired from high-danger locations, which does put him ahead of the league average for forwards of 12.8, so that is a little bit of a silver lining. He’s on track for 52 high-danger shots this campaign, which would be down from 60 last year, a drop of 13.3 percent, whereas his overall shot total is on track to finish at 82, compared to 121 in 2023-24, a decline of 32.2 percent. So a deeper dive suggests things might not be quite as bad as they seem -- at least in terms of shot quality -- but it’s still not good, just less bad.

It's fair to believe that Kuzmenko’s shooting percentage will climb as the campaign progresses, but unless he starts getting a bit more aggressive with the puck, I wouldn’t count on him putting up numbers sufficient to give him relevance in the majority of fantasy leagues.

We might see better from Nazem Kadri, though, at least relative to his current point pace. He has 10 goals and 19 points in 30 appearances this campaign, which is a far cry from his 75-point showing in 2023-24. Kadri has been a steady contributor recently, though, supplying five goals and 11 points through his past 13 outings. He’s not a safe bet to reach the 70-point milestone again, but he was getting significantly fewer assists than is normal early in the campaign, and that seems to be balancing out and is likely to continue to do so. There’s a good chance he’ll finish the season as Calgary’s scoring leader.

Colorado Avalanche (Mon @ VAN, Thu @ SJS, FRI @ ANA, Sun vs. SEA)

The Avalanche will start next week on the road, playing in Vancouver on Monday, San Jose on Thursday and Anaheim on Friday. Colorado will then conclude the week by hosting the Kraken.

Colorado acquired Mackenzie Blackwood along with Givani Smith and a 2027 fifth-round pick from San Jose in exchange for Alexandar Georgiev, Nikolai Kovalenko, a 2025 fifth-round pick and a 2026 second-round selection.

With Blackwood on side, the Avalanche have now completely changed their goaltending tandem. They started with Georgiev and Justus Annunen, and now have Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood. The 32-year-old Wedgewood started the campaign with Nashville, posting a 1-2-1 record, 3.69 GAA and .878 save percentage through five appearances, but he’s done far better since joining the Avalanche, going 3-2-0 with a 1.92 GAA and a .931 save percentage across five outings. Of course, that’s a small sample size, and Wedgewood typically hasn’t been more than an acceptable backup goaltender, so Blackwood will be needed too.

For his part, Blackwood had a 6-9-3 record, 3.00 GAA and .909 save percentage in 19 appearances with the Sharks before the trade. He has a plus-3.9 goals saved above expected this campaign, per Moneypuck, so he’s been solid when factoring out the Sharks’ defense. Speaking of that defense, San Jose ranks 29th in xGA/60 (3.36) while Colorado is 13th (2.95). That should lead to Blackwood putting up meaningfully better numbers post-trade, and naturally, his winning percentage should improve too now that he has the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and defenseman Cale Makar providing him with goal support.

Having Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen naturally helps too. That duo wasn’t available at the start of the campaign, but they’re in the lineup now, providing some critical secondary scoring. Nichushkin and Lehkonen have each supplied four goals through six games in December. They won’t match MacKinnon and Rantanen in terms of points, but they’re fantastic for Colorado to have on the top six.

Edmonton Oilers (Mon vs. FLA, Thu vs. BOS, Sat vs. SJS, Sun vs. OTT)

The Oilers will be at home next week, hosting the Panthers on Monday, the Bruins on Thursday, the Sharks on Saturday and the Senators on Sunday. Edmonton has been fantastic recently, winning seven of its past eight games to improve to 17-10-2 on the campaign, so the Oilers will be looking to stay hot.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have unsurprisingly been a major factor in Edmonton’s recent success, providing 15 points (five goals) and 14 points (six), respectively, over their past eight games. Vasily Podkolzin (three goals, five points) and Connor Brown (one goal, five points) have been less expected contributors. Podkolzin has benefited from playing in a top-six role, but he still might lose that job once Viktor Arvidsson (undisclosed) is available. It would be a little surprising if Arvidsson, who has been out since Nov. 12, returned next week, but he has resumed skating and might attend a team practice soon.

As for Brown, while there was some hope of him playing alongside his old OHL teammate, McDavid, when he first joined the Oilers, that’s never panned out. The 30-year-old has been playing strictly in a bottom-six capacity and has received almost no power-play time this campaign, so while his four goals and 10 points through 29 appearances aren’t bad under the circumstances, Brown isn’t in a position to increase that scoring pace.

In goal, Stuart Skinner has stabilized after a rough start to the campaign, posting a 4-1-0 record, 1.41 GAA and .947 save percentage across his past five starts. He had a similar track in 2023-24 with a rocky opening to the season followed by mostly strong play beyond that, so perhaps history is repeating.

Florida Panthers (Mon @ EDM, Wed @ MIN, Fri vs. STL, Sun vs. TBL)

Florida will open next week with road games against Edmonton and Minnesota on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. The Panthers will then host the Blues on Friday and play in Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Matthew Tkachuk was one of the hottest forwards in the league from Nov. 19-Dec. 7, supplying six goals and 19 points across 10 appearances. However, he’s been held off the scoresheet in each of his last two outings, so while he’s a fantastic forward regardless, his latest hot streak might be over.

To be fair, though, Florida as a squad has managed just one goal (excluding the shootout) over its past two games, so it’s not just Tkachuk who has cooled off. That’s just a mini-slump on the Panthers’ end, but Anton Lundell has been cold for longer. He hasn’t recorded a point across his past five appearances, leaving him at eight goals and 19 points through 29 outings in 2024-25.

Most of Lundell’s success came from an amazing start to the campaign in which he recorded six goals and 14 points in 14 appearances, but he was also averaging 18:49 of ice time. By contrast, he’s dropped to two goals and five points over his past 15 games and his average during that stretch is 15:39. The 23-year-old is capable, but when everyone is healthy, he typically serves on the third line, which limits his fantasy impact. If injuries result in him moving up to the top six, then he could be a great short-term play.

Los Angeles Kings (Tue @ PIT, Thu @ PHI, Sat @ NSH, Sun @ WSH)

The Kings have a full schedule with four games on the docket next week and just one of their upcoming opponents (the Capitals) occupy a playoff spot. The downside is the Kings will be on the road for the entire week. They’ll play in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, Philadelphia on Thursday, Nashville on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.

When looking at the Kings’ campaign thus far, the player who has most impressed me is Anze Kopitar with his eight goals and 32 points through 29 appearances. We’re currently in a time where several forwards have excelled well past their prime -- Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby being the most obvious examples -- so Kopitar’s longevity has flown under the radar somewhat. The fact that he remains an effective playmaker at the age of 37, is still impressive, though. It wouldn’t be surprising at this point to see him reach the 70-point mark for the 10th time in his career.

Alex Laferriere was nearing his sixth birthday when Kopitar made his NHL debut, but the two are in their second campaign together and the sophomore Laferriere has been coming into his own with 12 goals and 22 points in 29 contests this season. Laferriere has continued to be a steady contributor lately, collecting three goals and seven points across his past seven games.

However, I am a little worried about Laferriere’s 20.0 shooting percentage. That seems rather high and his PDO of 1033 is a touch up there too, which suggests he has been getting a bit of puck luck. I don’t expect a crash, but his goal-scoring pace will likely decline somewhat.

Adrian Kempe’s shooting percentage of 17.9 is on the higher side too. Kempe did have a 16.4 shooting percentage in 2022-23 when he finished with 41 markers, so he’s not too far above his career high, but it’s still a notable step above his career average of 12.7. Like Laferriere, I don’t expect Kempe to collapse, but a small decline might be in his future. Kempe does have 14 goals and 28 points in 29 outings overall.

New Jersey Devils (Tue @ STL, Thu @ CBJ, Sat vs. PIT)

The Devils are set to play just three games next week, but the competition is favorable, so I decided to highlight them. New Jersey will play in St. Louis on Tuesday and Columbus on Thursday before hosting the Penguins on Saturday.

The Devils have a commanding 19-10-3 record compared to their mediocre 38-39-5 finish to 2023-24 and the difference is almost entirely at their end of the ice. New Jersey is allowing just 2.66 goals per game, which is a huge drop from 3.43 last year. But how much of that is thanks to Jacob Markstrom?

The Devils had an xGA/60 of 3.26 last campaign, which suggests that they were a poor defensive team independent of their goaltending. Kaapo Kahkonen and Jake Allen largely held their own with a plus-1.4 and minus-1.9 goals saved above expected, but when the defense is that bad, merely being okay leads to bad results. The Devils also employed Nico Daws, Akira Schmid and Vitek Vanecek, who did even worse by that metric.

Markstrom was brought in over the summer to stabilize the situation, but much like Kahkonen before him, he’s been acceptable, but not brilliant, posting a plus-1.5 goals saved above expected through 22 appearances. The difference is the Devils have burdened their goaltenders far less in 2024-25, as evidenced by their 2.70 xGA/60.

So, while Markstrom certainly hasn’t been a problem, he hasn’t necessarily been their savior. Either way, fantasy managers have can reap the benefits of Markstrom playing in a favorable situation, which has resulted in him posting a 14-6-2 record, 2.41 GAA and .906 save percentage. He’s also hot going into this week with a 3-0-1 record, 1.48 GAA and .933 save percentage over his past four outings.

Allen has been dealing with an upper-body injury, and the Devils’ schedule is spread out enough to allow Markstrom to start in all three games next week. Isaac Poulter will be with New Jersey for the duration of Allen’s injury, but Poulter is unlikely to get a start. The 23-year-old Poulter has struggled in the AHL this campaign with a 3.32 GAA and an .871 save percentage across nine appearances.

Poulter not getting playing time isn’t surprising, but it was a bit eyebrow-raising to see Tomas Tatar out of the lineup Thursday. Perhaps it shouldn’t be, though. Tatar has averaged just 10:41 of ice time this campaign, which is a far cry from even two seasons ago when he logged 15:07 per game. The Devils are a deep team, and it seems like there’s not much of a role for him. I’d be interested to see what would happen if the Devils traded the 34-year-old. He’s on a one-year, $1.8 million contract, so he’s movable, but New Jersey might ultimately decide that they’d rather have him on board as an insurance policy against injuries. If Tatar does find himself in a middle-six role, he might do enough offensively to have some fantasy relevance. As it is, he’s a non-factor in most leagues.

Seattle Kraken (Tue vs. OTT, Thu @ CHI, Sat @ VGK, Sun @ COL)

Seattle will host Ottawa on Tuesday, but the Kraken will spend the remainder of next week on the road, playing in Chicago on Thursday, Vegas on Saturday and Colorado on Sunday.

The Kraken have largely held their own this campaign without being anything special, posting a 15-14-2 record. Joey Daccord has been a major highlight with a 12-6-2 record, 2.42 GAA and .916 save percentage through 20 appearances. We just talked about how Markstrom is benefiting from plenty of support, but Daccord has had to do much more to keep the Kraken afloat. They are tied for 24th in xGA/60 (3.14) and are tied for 16th in goals per game (3.03). For his part, Daccord’s plus-9.2 in goals saved above expected ranks seventh in the league.

Seattle’s offense is mediocre in part because it lacks star power. Through Friday’s action, 48 players have scored at least 12 goals and none of them play for the Kraken. Seattle’s points leader, Jared McCann, (11 goals, 15 assists), is also outside of the top 47 in that category. The Kraken have nine players who have recorded at least five goals, which is respectable -- the league average is 7.7 per team -- but without a star leading the charge, the offense is still just okay.

Maybe Shane Wright will eventually fill that role. Taken with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, Wright had just a goal and an assist through his first 18 appearances in 2024-25. Then he spent three games as a healthy scratch from Nov. 17-23, and that seemed to do him plenty of good. He’s managed six goals and 11 points across 10 outings since that stint in the press box.

The 22-year-old Matty Beniers has promise too. He had 24 goals and 57 points as a rookie in 2022-23 but took a step back in 2023-24 with 15 goals and 37 points. The 2024-25 campaign has been a mixed bag -- he has four goals and 17 points in 31 games -- but he’s done well recently with seven assists across his past seven appearances.

Vancouver Canucks (Mon @ COL, Wed @ UTA, Thu @ VGK, Say vs. OTT)

The Canucks will split next week between two games at home (Monday vs. the Avalanche and Saturday vs. the Senators) and two road tilts (Wednesday in Utah and Thursday in Vegas). The Canucks are 15-8-5, which is pretty good, but in a tough Pacific Division, that’s only good for fourth place.

Going into the campaign, it wasn’t clear if Vancouver would be able to hold its own without starting goaltender Thatcher Demko, who was dealing with a knee injury. Fortunately for the Canucks, Kevin Lankinen stepped up and now has a 14-4-3 record, 2.52 GAA and .912 save percentage across 21 outings.

Lankinen became the clear starter during Demko’s absence, but his role is less clear after Demko made his return. The 29-year-old Demko made his season debut Tuesday, though he left something to be desired, stopping 21 of 25 shots en route to a 4-3 overtime loss to St. Louis. That was followed by Lankinen posting a 27-save shutout Thursday.

We shouldn’t judge Demko based on only one start, but it might take him some time to shake off the rust. With Vancouver’s upcoming schedule relatively full, the Canucks will probably split the workload between Lankinen and Demko, which will give the latter more time to get eased in. If Lankinen keeps playing like he has been, and Demko eventually finds his rhythm, then Vancouver would have a great 1A/1B situation on its hands.

The Canucks also got J.T. Miller back, who was absent for 10 games due to personal reasons. He looked good in his return Thursday, providing two assists, including one on the power play. Now that he’s back, Pius Suter is likely to serve in a reduced capacity. During Miller’s 10-game absence, Suter had five goals and nine points while averaging 18:14 of ice time, but Suter dropped to 15:15 on Thursday and wasn’t used at all with the man advantage for the first time since Nov. 14. If you’ve been enjoying Suter’s recent success, now might be the time to explore your alternatives.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Avalanche overhaul goaltending, Bedard heating up, Wright establishing himself, Montreal’s power play more dangerous with Hutson feeding Laine, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 13 Dec 2024 17:05:50 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 07: Patrik Laine (92) of the Montreal Canadiens skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Washington Capitals and the Montreal Canadiens on Dec 07 2024, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC(Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, the Avalanche have overhauled their goaltending, Connor Bedard is heating up, Shane Wright is establishing himself, Montreal’s power play is more dangerous with Lane Hutson feeding Patrik Laine, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Give the Colorado Avalanche credit. They saw the direction that their goaltending was heading this season and decided that an abrupt change of course was necessary. In two separate deals, the Avs acquired Scott Wedgewood from the Nashville Predators, and then landed Mackenzie Blackwood from the San Jose Sharks. Blackwood becomes immediately more intriguing from a fantasy perspective because he will play for an Avalanche team that is more likely to win than the Sharks squad from which he departs. Blackwood had a .909 save percentage and 5.10 Goals Saved Above Expected in 19 games for San Jose. His play has been uneven since a strong rookie campaign in 2019-2020, but playing for Colorado is a prime opportunity for 28-year-old Blackwood to achieve his potential.

#2 Going to San Jose as part of the deal, in addition to slumping goaltender Alexandar Georgiev, is rookie winger Nikolai Kovalenko. The 25-year-old’s ice time was dwindling in Colorado, where he had eight points (4 G, 4 A) in 29 games but, in his Sharks debut, Kovalenko was dropped onto the left side of San Jose’s top line, with Macklin Celebrini and Tyler Toffoli, and Kovalenko contributed three assists in Thursday’s 4-3 win at St. Louis. At this point, Kovalenko would only be a consideration in deep leagues, but if he can stick with Celebrini, he could become much more appealing in a hurry.

#3 It has been a trying season for Chicago Blackhawks centre Connor Bedard, the first pick in the 2023 Draft who had a stellar rookie campaign in 2023-2024. Through 21 games, he had 15 points, but just three goals and 55 shots on goal, which is not enough for a player with his considerable offensive gifts. In the past eight games, though, Bedard has contributed nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 18 shots on goal. Perhaps this is the beginning of a turnaround for Chicago’s franchise player, though more shots would still be ideal.

#4 Seattle Kraken centre Shane Wright has not had the easiest time since he was the fourth pick in the 2022 Draft, struggling just to get into the NHL lineup. He appears to be hitting his stride now, however. In his past 10 games, Wright has delivered 11 points (6 G, 5 A), though with just 14 shots on goal. Obviously, that shot rate is not high enough to sustain that kind of production, but as the points start to accumulate, Wright’s ice time goes up. He has played more than 14 minutes in six of those 10 games after crossing that threshold twice in his first 18 games.

#5 A healthy Patrik Laine has finally joined the Montreal Canadiens, and the early returns are encouraging. His all-around game still needs plenty of work to get up to speed, but he does one very important thing very well and that is shoot the puck. In five games, Laine has scored three goals, all on the power play, and added one assist at even strength. He is one of the rare players who can score clean goals from distance, so Montreal should give him linemates that are focused on getting Laine opportunities to shoot the puck. He has 12 shots on goal in five games, which is okay, but could be better.

#6 One of the players who is doing a fine job getting Laine the puck is Canadiens rookie defenceman Lane Hutson, who has assists on all three of Laine’s goals. Hutson did not find the scoresheet in Thursday’s 9-2 loss to Pittsburgh, snapping a seven-game point streak during which he contributed eight assists. He has played an average of 22:49 per game, which puts him more than three minutes per game ahead of any other rookie defenceman (Philadelphia’s Emil Andrae is averaging 19:26 time on ice per game). In any case, Hutson is playing a lot and with some accomplished shooters on the Canadiens roster, should be in position to keep producing points from the blueline.

#7 When the St. Louis Blues signed Dylan Holloway to an offer sheet in the offseason, it was with the expectation that the former Edmonton Oilers winger would have a bigger role with his new team. While that was indeed happening, Holloway’s production has been super-charged since the Blues made a coaching change, bringing in Jim Montgomery to replace Drew Bannister. In eight games with Montgomery behind the bench, Holloway has put up 11 points (6 G, 5 A) and 26 shots on goal while averaging 16:27 of ice time per game. For a player who had averaged just 10:21 of ice time in 89 games for the Oilers, this increase in role and production has been substantial.

#8 Utah Hockey club centre Logan Cooley is building on what was a promising rookie season in 2023-2024. In his past 10 games, Cooley has produced 12 points (4 G, 8 A) with 20 shots on goal. He forms a brilliant combination with Dylan Guenther, who has 14 points (5 G, 9 A) and 21 shots on goal in the past 10 games. Guenther is up to 28 points (12 G, 16 A) in 29 games for the season. Both young forwards have great potential and are already at the point of providing fantasy value.

#9 Although it seems that his career has been on a straight downward trajectory since arriving in Calgary, Flames left winger Jonathan Huberdeau is currently riding a six-game point streak, during which he has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 14 shots on goal. Huberdeau has 11 goals and 10 assists for the season, which is a highly unusual goal-to-assist ratio. Last season, for example, he scored 12 goals and had 40 assists and 2017-2018 was the last season in which he had less than twice as many assists as goals.

#10 When the Chicago Blackhawks signed 6-foot-6 defenceman Alex Vlasic to a contract extension in the offseason, it was an indication that he would play a big role on the blueline for the foreseeable future. Vlasic can already play in a shutdown role, but he is starting to contribute offensively, too. With Seth Jones injured, Vlasic is quarterbacking the Blackhawks’ top power play unit and has six points (2 G, 4 A) with 20 shots on goal while playing more than 24 minutes per game in his past seven games.

#11 After tallying three points against the Blackhawks on Thursday, New York Islanders right winger Simon Holmstrom has continued to elevate his game in his third NHL season. Since Mathew Barzal was injured at the end of October, Holmstrom has seen his ice time go up and so has his production. In the past 21 games, Holmstrom has played more than 17 minutes per game, leading to him scoring 16 points (8 G, 8 A) with 29 shots on goal. In deep leagues, that just might be worth consideration.

#12 As mediocre as the Pittsburgh Penguins have been this season, there is some value to be found with their veteran wingers. Bryan Rust has been a reliable contributor for the Penguins over the years and in his past eight games, he has 12 points (7 G, 5 A) with 28 shots on goal. Skating on Sidney Crosby’s wing does tend to bring opportunities. Rickard Rakell is skating on the other wing of Pittsburgh’s top line, and in that eight-game span, Rakell has 10 points (6 G, 4 A) with 22 shots on goal. The Penguins have also won six of those eight games, so there are some signs of progress coinciding with more reliable production from some of their top players.

#13 A big offseason signing for the Seattle Kraken, centre Chandler Stephenson did not have a great start with his new team, managing one goal and 10 points in his first 19 games. In the past 11 games, he has 11 points (2 G, 9 A) but he also has just 10 shots on goal in that time and is getting buried during five-on-five play. Stephenson does have a spot on the Kraken’s top power play unit, though, and has scored 11 of his 21 points this season with the man advantage.

#14 Washington Capitals right winger Aliaksei Protas is really coming into his own. He scored 29 points last season but managed just six goals in 78 games, so his offensive contributions weren’t fully realized, but that’s changing. He has eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his past seven games, but it’s important to note that this production has been going on all season as he has 26 points (11 G, 15 A) in 28 games. The 6-foot-6 winger is proving to be more than merely a complementary piece.

#15 The leading goal scorer among defencemen, on a per-game basis (minimum 20 games played), is the Capitals’ Jakob Chychrun, who has eight goals (and 10 assists) in 23 games. This is not entirely unusual for Chychrun. Since 2019-2020, he ranks fifth in goals per game among defensemen (minimum 200 games), behind Cale Makar, Roman Josi, Zach Werenski, and Dougie Hamilton. The issue for Chychrun, frequently, has been staying healthy, as last season was the first time in his career that he played more than 70 games in a season.

#16 Vancouver Canucks centre Pius Suter has been a valuable complementary piece, particularly while the Canucks were missing J.T. Miller recently. Since the beginning of November, Suter has 14 points (9 G, 5 A) with 39 shots on goal in 19 games. Skating on a line with Conor Garland and Dakota Joshua, there is the chance for consistent even strength production to continue. Suter is tied for 16th in the league with 10 even strength goals.

#17 Coming off a career-best season, during which he scored 37 goals and 60 points, Anaheim Ducks winger Frank Vatrano has had a more difficult time of it this season. He has 14 points (7 G, 7 A) in 27 games but does have 93 shots on goal and that high shot rate is a reason for hope and it is trending in the right direction. In his past nine games, Vatrano has seven points (5 G, 2 A) with 37 shots on goal and players that are putting four shots on goal per game tend to find goals and points, too.

#18 Despite playing very little (11:21 ATOI per game) Penguins centre Blake Lizotte has been surprisingly productive, with 10 points (6 G, 4 A) in 15 games. He has scored on 35.3 percent of his shots, which is unsustainable for anyone, but especially a player who typically scores on 10 percent of his shots. Among players that have appeared in at least 10 games, Lizotte ranks 11th with 1.61 goals per game during five-on-five play. Skating on Lizotte’s wing, Michael Bunting is raising his level, too, putting up seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 15 shots on goal in the past six games.

#19 Pittsburgh’s improved play is bringing better results from goaltender Tristan Jarry, who has typically been an above average goaltender in his career, but not so much this season. In his first three games, Jarry had a .836 save percentage, which is virtually unplayable for a team with playoff aspirations, so the Penguins didn’t play him for a month, and since he has returned, he has a .896 save percentage in nine games. That’s not enough to get excited, but if the Penguins keep winning, their goaltender could still offer potential value.

#20 With Connor Ingram out with an upper-body injury, the Utah Hockey Club has been fortunate enough to have Karel Vejmelka step up his game. In his past 13 games, Vejmelka has a .923 save percentage, posting a 5-5-2 record. His track record does not necessarily track with this level of play, but fantasy managers could do worse than to take a shot on a goaltender that is running hot.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Ovechkin and Strome leading surprising Capitals plus much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 15 Nov 2024 20:47:55 +0000

Washington Capitals center Dylan Strome (17) (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome are leading the surprising Capitals, Anders Lee is back in a big role for the Islanders, the Canucks call up a top prospect, a veteran Canadiens winger is picking up his play, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 There was a time last season, like when he had five goals through 29 games, that Washington Capitals left winger Alex Ovechkin looked like he might be washed. He recovered to score 26 goals in his last 50 games of the season and has started this season with 10 goals and nine assists in 15 games. There is some good fortune involved. While Ovechkin has buried 10 goals in 15 games, he is generating 3.60 shots on goal per game. He had routinely put up more than four shots on goal per game before last season, when that rate dropped to 3.43 shots per game. The difference for Ovechkin this season is that he has scored on 18.5 percent of his shots, which would be the highest rate of his career. This suggests that selling high on Ovechkin might offer some value, because it is hard to imagine his production getting better than it has been to this point in the season.

#2 Reaping the rewards of playing with Ovechkin – or is it the other way around? – Capitals centre Dylan Strome is thriving, with 23 points (5 G, 18 A) in 15 games. Strome does have an on-ice shooting percentage of 19.6 percent, which is outrageously high and not sustainable, so he almost assuredly will not continue scoring at a 125-point pace. Like Ovechkin, there is probably more value in Strome as a trade chip than in hoping that he will continue to score at this rate.

#3 New York Islanders captain Anders Lee started the season on the third line, but injuries to Anthony Duclair and Mat Barzal have pushed him back up the depth chart and he is making the most of his opportunity. The 34-year-old winger has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) in his past seven games while playing more than 18 minutes per game. Lee is averaging 11.26 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, which ranks eighth in the league. Lee is skating on the Isles’ top line with Bo Horvat and Jean-Gabriel Pageau.

#4 With Brock Boeser in concussion protocol, the Vancouver Canucks called up top prospect Jonathan Lekkerimaki and the 15th pick in the 2022 Draft scored his first NHL goal in his second game. Lekkerimaki had seven points (5 G, 2 A) in seven AHL games to earn his promotion and was inserted on a line with Pius Suter and J.T. Miller. The question is, will the Canucks keep him once Boeser returns? There may be room to slide Suter down the depth chart and keep Lekkerimaki in a scoring role, but that is going to require close monitoring of the situation. The good news is that Lekkerimaki didn’t look out of place in his first taste of NHL action.

#5 Montrel Canadiens veteran Brendan Gallagher has started to contribute more offensively, though he is scoring on 21.9 percent of his shots and that is not a sustainable rate for a player who has exceeded 13 percent over a full season once in his career. Nevertheless, in his past nine games, Gallagher has delivered seven points (5 G, 2 A) while playing more than 14 minutes per game. He would only have value in deep leagues, but there is a chance that he offers more appeal now than he has for several seasons.

#6 The circumstances in Buffalo dictate that there is a ceiling on the production of defenceman Bowen Byram, because Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power are also competing for the most productive minutes on the Sabres blueline. Even so, Byram is cooking lately. He has seven points (2 G, 5 A) while averaging 25 minutes of ice time per game in his past seven games. There have reportedly been other teams lurking around the Sabres, offering to make a deal for Byram but it’s understandable that Buffalo likes what he offers, even if he is not quarterbacking the top power play unit.

#7 After he erupted for 31 goals last season, Los Angeles Kings winger Trevor Moore is not as likely to sneak up on opponents this season. Moore started slowly this year, with three points (1 G, 2 A) in his first 11 games, but he is currently riding a six-game point streak, during which he has nine points (2 G, 7 A) while playing nearly 17 minutes per game. Moore’s offensive surge has helped to lift the production of centre Phillip Danault, who had three assists in 11 games to open the season but has contributed six points (1 G, 5 A) in seven games since.

#8 Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin is getting activated Friday after spending six months on suspension after violating the policies of the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. The Avalanche have managed to survive this season, and they have recently activated Artturi Lehkonen and Jonathan Drouin from the injured list, but Nichushkin is likely to have an even bigger impact. Before getting suspended last season, Nichushkin had set career highs with 28 goals and 53 points in just 54 games. It looks like Nichushkin and Lehkonen will skate on the wings with Casey Mittelstadt, suddenly giving the Avalanche a much more formidable second line.

#9 Jake DeBrusk was Vancouver’s big free agent signing in the offseason and he had zero goals and four assists in nine games before finally finding the back of the net. He has five points (3 G, 2 A) in his past six games and as centre Elias Pettersson starts to emerge from his season-opening slump, DeBrusk is in a better spot to carry his production forward, skating on a line with Pettersson and Conor Garland.

#10 With captain Mark Stone injured, Vegas Golden Knights winger Pavel Dorofeyev is making the most of his opportunity and has landed on the top line with Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev. In his past 10 games, which includes games before Stone was injured, Dorofeyev has produced 10 points (7 G, 3 A) with 38 shots on goal. That shot rate is a great indicator that this production will continue. Maybe not at the rate of seven goals per 10 games, but 3.8 shots per game is strong underlying production.

#11 The Washington Capitals have been a surprise team this year, so they are a better source for fantasy value than might have been expected. Defenceman Rasmus Sandin was held off the scoresheet in the first five games of the season, but has since contributed eight points (2 G, 6 A) in 10 games. Like other Capitals, Sandin has a high on-ice shooting percentage (14.5 percent) that does suggest that his production is likely to slow down.

#12 Buffalo Sabres centre Dylan Cozens had 31 goals and 68 points in 2022-2023, only to collapse to 18 goals and 47 points last season. He is just 23 years old, so he has time to get back on track, but he started slowly in 2024-2025, with zero points in his first five games. He hasn’t busted out yet, but has four points (3 G, 1 A) in his past seven games. Cozens in only scoring on 6.0 percent of his shots, so that should get better, and the Sabres are continuing to give him quality ice time, including first-unit power play time, so he could be a possible buy-low candidate.

#13 In deep leagues, it’s always worth keeping tabs on Florida Panthers winger Evan Rodrigues, who has established that he is a reliable secondary scoring option on an excellent team. Rodrigues has six points (3 G, 3 A) in his past six games, even though he has just seven shots in that time. He is typically a reliable shot generator, and his production does tend to fluctuate based on his role. Right now, he is skating on Florida’s third line with Anton Lundell but has also spent time in the top six as well.

#14 New York Islanders rookie winger Maxim Tsyplakov needs to improve his shot rate, but he is starting to become a secondary offensive option. He has seven points (1 G, 6 A) in the past 10 games, but has just 12 shots on goal in that time, which is not nearly enough for a forward getting more than 16 minutes of ice time per game. There are 162 forwards that have played at least 200 five-on-five minutes this season and Tsyplakov ranks 143rd with 4.80 shots on goal per 60 minutes.

#15 2021 first-round pick Matt Coronato had just nine points in 39 games for the Calgary Flames last season and started this year in the AHL, where he scored two goals in two games to earn a recall to the big club. Coronato has five points (3 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal in his past five games and he is getting a real opportunity, skating alongside Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman at evens, as well as playing on Calgary’s first power play unit.

#16 The Winnipeg Jets can move centre Vladislav Namestnikov all around the lineup and his two-way game makes him a valuable and versatile player. For fantasy managers, however, offensive production drives his value, and he has contributed five points (3 G, 2 A) in his past six games. Skating on a line with Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers on his wings gives Namestnikov the opportunity to provide enough offensively that he can hold some appeal in deep leagues.

#17 Washington Capitals goaltender Logan Thompson is crushing it in a goaltending tandem with Charlie Lindgren. Thompson has started eight games and has a 7-0-1 record with a .906 save percentage. That does make Thompson the slightly better option in the Washington net, but there is little indication that the Capitals are going to turn to either one as a number one option between the pipes. For fantasy managers, that makes Thompson a useful player to move in and out of the lineup, depending on when he is scheduled to start.

#18 I often mention shot rates as an indicator for a player’s production. Among forwards that have played at least 200 five-on-five minutes, the shots per 60 minutes leaders are: Brady Tkachuk, Logan Stankoven, Jeff Skinner, Anthony Beauvillier, Carter Verhaeghe, Auston Matthews, Bobby McMann, Anders Lee, Connor McMichael, and Ryan Donato. Some of those names are expected, but it should make players like Beauvillier, McMann, Donato, and even Stankoven worth an extra look when scouring the fantasy waiver wire.

#19 Adding shot quality into the mix, the forwards that are leading in individual expected goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play: Connor McMichael, Will Cuylle, Connor McDavid, Sean Monahan, Auston Matthews, Jack Roslovic, Nino Niederrieter, Barrett Hayton, Seth Jarvis, and Jeff Skinner. McMichael has been enjoying a breakout season and has the underlying numbers to support it and Cuylle is delivering more in his sophomore campaign for the Rangers. Roslovic is getting a great opportunity in Carolina and Niederreiter continues to thrive on Winnipeg’s third line.

#20 It is not easy to take on a San Jose Sharks goaltender, but it could be worth considering Mackenzie Blackwood, who has a 3-5-2 record in 10 starts, but his .910 save percentage and 4.68 Goals Saved Above Expected are very promising signs. He had a 44-save shutout at New Jersey, against his former team, and the Sharks are starting to win some games, so Blackwood’s record could start to improve merely through the team getting better rather than any improvement needed in his own performance.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – SAN JOSE SHARKS – Team Preview

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 20:00:54 +0000

_{PARADISE, NV - JUNE 28: Macklin Celebrini of Boston University is drafted by the San Jose Sharks in the first round during the NHL Draft on June 28, 2024 at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Speer/Icon Sportswire)}

On the heels of a spectacularly terrible season, the San Jose Sharks can only go up. San Jose finished with 47 points (19-54-9) and the one thing that they could take from that disaster of a campaign is that they landed the top pick in the draft lottery. The Sharks used that pick on Macklin Celebrini, who was born in Vancouver, but played some of his minor hockey for the San Jose Jr. Sharks. Where did it go wrong for the Sharks in 2023-2024? They ranked 31st in Corsi (42.2%) and dead last in expected goals percentage (40.6%), so they earned their poor results from the start. San Jose’s power play ranked 19th, which was a monumental success compared to other aspects of the game, scoring 7.28 goals per 60 minutes. They allowed 8.97 goals against per 60 minutes while shorthanded, which ranked 28th. The Sharks might not have expected the team to be as bad as it was, but when they came out of the gate going 0-10-1 in the first 11 games, it was pretty clear that it was going to be a long season.

WHAT’S CHANGED? To their credit, the Sharks did not let that awful season go without making major changes. They fired head coach Dave Quinn and replaced him with Ryan Warsofsky. They let winger Filip Zadina and defenceman Calen Addison both go without a qualifying offer. Veteran forwards Mike Hoffman, Alexander Barabanov, and Kevin Labanc were all cast into free agency, and the Sharks traded defenceman Kyle Burroughs to Los Angeles. The most important additions for the Sharks will be having their top picks from the past two drafts, Celebrini and Will Smith, in the lineup. San Jose was also busy re-shaping its forward group. They signed Tyler Toffoli and Alexander Wennberg as free agents, traded for Ty Dellandrea and Carl Grunstrom, plus they claimed Barclay Goodrow on waivers, whether he liked it or not. The Sharks also made a sharp deal to acquire defenceman Jake Walman from Detroit, so they are going to look different than they did last season.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? It would be impossible to imagine this roster going to the playoffs, so success is much more about development. While the Sharks definitely need to be more consistently competitive, the biggest key to this season is the improvement of young players. That’s Celebrini and Smith, but also William Eklund, Fabian Zetterlund, Thomas Bordeleau, Ty Dellandrea, and Henry Thrun. They aren’t all going to hit, but it is imperative that the Sharks put these players in positions to succeed, as best they can, and build something stable for the future.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Since on-ice results are still practically irrelevant for this team, failing to develop their young players would be a giant mistake. It doesn’t look like there is much danger of veterans overtaking the top young players, but it’s also important that players like Celebrini and Smith have legitimately skilled NHL players to skate with, so that they can grow into their roles without getting buried in the defensive zone night after night. The one good thing about being the worst team in hockey, aside from getting the top pick in the draft, is that it can’t get any worse.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Leaving aside the rookies, who could be among the top players on this team right away, the best breakout candidate might be William Eklund, who was the seventh pick in the 2021 Draft. He finished with 45 points last season but that could just be scratching the surface of what he could provide. Eklund finished the season with 15 points in his last 14 games, for a team that was playing out the string, so he could be ready to make something happen this year, especially if he is playing with more skilled linemates than he did in 2023-2024.

FORWARD

Tyler Toffoli

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	27	24	51	0.62

A three-time 30-goal scorer and Stanley Cup champion, the veteran winger continues to play at a high level. Toffoli has scored 67 goals across the past two seasons, including 46 at even strength. His 67 goals are tied for 34th while his 46 even-strength goals is tied for 30th. Among players to play at least 1000 even strength minutes across the past two seasons, Toffoli ranks 22nd. Adding that scoring efficiency ought to be a major help for a Sharks team that was woefully inadequate offensively last season. Toffoli is a consistent shot generator who uses a quick release and an accurate shot to score goals from distance. Toffoli has been a consistent play-driving force throughout his career, with his team controlling 55.6 percent of shot attempts when he has been on the ice for five-on-five play. That might be difficult to match in San Jose, but if Toffoli can help move the puck in the right direction, that will be a big help to San Jose’s top prospects. For a player that is known for his ability to finish around the opposing goal, Toffoli is also a reliable defensive winger. It is likely going to be an uphill fight in San Jose next season, so expectations for Toffoli should land around 25 goals and 50 points, which is down from recent seasons, but he does not have quite the same supporting cast heading into the 2024-2025 season.

William Eklund

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	22	33	55	0.67

The seventh pick in the 2021 Draft, Eklund got to spend a full season with the Sharks and made significant progress, scoring 45 points. He finished the season with a flourish, tallying 15 points in his last 14 games, an encouraging sign even though the Sharks were playing out the string at that point of the season. Eklund has strong offensive instincts, getting in position to score, either via one-timers or simply going to the net for rebounds. It would not be at all surprising to see his repertoire continue to grow as he develops more confidence. The Sharks tried Eklund at centre midway through the season, but he wasn’t scoring and finished the season winning just 31.3 percent of his faceoffs, so that didn’t seem like a long-term solution. He can be a dangerous winger for the Sharks moving forward, potentially even in a top line role. Among the players who are already on the San Jose roster (so not including rookies Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith), Eklund is the most intriguing, with a chance to become a bona fide top line player. For the 2024-2025 season, Eklund should be expected to deliver 20 goals and 50 points but, considering how he finished last season, he might even be able to produce more than that.

Mikael Granlund

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	11	45	56	0.73

A veteran centre who hit the 60-point plateau for the fourth time in his career in 2023-2024, Granlund is much better suited to a complementary role, but on the Sharks, he played a career-high 20:58 and while that led to power play production and higher point totals, the Sharks were also outshot and out-scored with Granlund on the ice. That hardly made him unique in San Jose, but it shows just how much more support was needed. At his best, Granlund is a creative playmaker, who has excellent vision and patience with the puck. While Granlund can play centre, he may just be keeping the position warm until the Sharks decide that their top prospects are ready to handle the responsibilities of playing down the middle of the ice in the National Hockey League. When that time comes, Granlund can shift to the wing and still be the setup man from that position and it probably will help free him up to focus on offensive play, rather than forcing him to handle defensive responsibilities which are not really his strong suit. Granlund is not an eager shooter, so he does not score a lot of goals. It might be fair to expect 10-12 goals in 2024-2025, on the way to Granlund putting up around 55 points.

Fabian Zetterlund

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	21	21	42	0.51

There were not a lot of wins to be found in San Jose last season, but seeing Zetterlund break through to score 24 goals feels like at least a little bit of a win, a young player starting to realize his potential. Zetterlund, 25, is a stocky winger who will use his body to battle along the boards and in front of the net. He has good speed to create chances in transition, but Zetterlund seemed to be most effective at finding soft spots in the defensive zone where he could utilize a one-timer or quick release to find the back of the net. Perhaps Zetterlund should not have been playing 19 minutes per game at this stage of his career, particularly because his defensive play is not yet strong enough to handle that responsibility, but that experience should serve him well as the rest of the team gets better. The Sharks managed a miserable 39.5 percent of expected goals with Zetterlund on the ice, so there is room for improvement in his all-around game. He is likely suited to a secondary scoring role, though on this roster, he may still be in a featured offensive role. It is reasonable to expect 20 goals and 40 points out of Zetterlund in 2024-2025 and there could be some upside if the Sharks’ top prospects are ready to be impact players.

Alexander Wennberg

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	11	24	35	0.44

A reliable third-line centre, Wennberg appears to have the talent to contribute more, but the 29-year-old pivot has only reached 40 points in a season twice in his career, the most recent occurrence coming in 2016-2017. Across his entire career, Wennberg has been on the ice for one more goal for (378) than against (377), despite Columbus and Seattle being his home for nearly 90 percent of his games. Oddly enough, Wennberg is not particularly adept in the faceoff circle, winning 46.2 percent of draws in his career, and never finishing over 50 percent in a single season. Wennberg has strong puck skills and can beat a defender one-on-one and is a fine distributor of the puck. If he is going to create more offensive production, Wennberg would need to shoot the puck more frequently. There were 375 forwards that played at least 500 five-on-five minutes last season and 373 of them generated shots at a higher rate than Wennberg’s 3.58 shots on goal per 60 minutes. That isn’t even the worst of it, since Wennberg ranks 375th in shot attempts per 60 (6.41) and individual expected goals per 60 (0.38). That inability, or reluctance, to shoot the puck puts a ceiling on his offensive potential, so he should be able to contribute about 35 points for San Jose in 2024-2025.

Klim Kostin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	13	12	25	0.35

A mammoth winger, 6-foot-4, 232-pound Kostin has flashed brief moments of potential, including when he scored five goals and nine points in his first 13 games for the Sharks after he was acquired from the Red Wings. Although he has yet to firmly establish his place in the NHL, despite previous stops in St. Louis, Edmonton, and Detroit, the 25-year-old has enough skill to complement his gritty game. For players that don’t play much, it helps to be efficiently productive in the ice time that they get. Across the past two seasons, Kostin has 0.99 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. That ranks 65th among forwards that skated at least 500 five-on-five minutes, which is a higher rate than Elias Pettersson, Nico Hischier, and Alex Ovechkin, among many others. Kostin’s particular set of skills may indicate that he is destined to be a fourth-line banger, but it would not be unreasonable to give him opportunities higher on the depth chart to see if he can handle that responsibility over a longer period of time. Provided that he stays healthy and in the lineup for most of the season, Kostin should be able to contribute 25 points for the Sharks in 2024-2025. His career high is 21 points, but he has yet to play more than 57 games in a season, so there is room for improved production.

Ty Dellandrea

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	9	17	26	0.33

Lost in the shuffle in Dallas, Dellandrea went from scoring 28 points in 2022-2023 to just nine points in 42 games last season. The 13th pick in the 2018 Draft can play both centre and wing and brings a physical edge to his game in addition to having decent puck skills, making him more talented than a run-of-the-mill fourth liner. Despite a modest history in Dallas, the move to San Jose could turn Dellandrea loose. He may not be a first line forward, but there is a path to him fitting in San Jose’s middle six, with more ice time and better opportunities than he has been able to experience in the NHL. The 24-year-old has already shown that he will put his body on the line with physical play, hitting frequently and dropping the gloves when needed, so he should be able to secure a regular spot in the Sharks lineup, but it’s fair to expect that he could be more than merely a fringe player. There will be competition for spots in San Jose’s middle six, but Dellandrea should have a chance to earn those minutes and, if he does, a season with 25-30 points would be within his grasp.

Nico Sturm

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	7	12	19	0.26

After going for career highs of 14 goals and 26 points in 2022-2023, his first year with the Sharks, Sturm saw his numbers plummet to five goals and 13 points in 63 games last season. His shot rate dropped to a career-low 1.10 per game and he scored on a career-low 7.2 percent of his shots – it was the perfect statistical recipe for a decline in production. This led to the Sharks getting outscored 42-22 during five-on-five play when Sturm was on the ice. Despite winning a career-high 60.1 percent of his faceoffs, Sturm struggled defensively, allowing career-high rates of shot attempts, expected goals against, and goals against per 60 minutes. Certainly, the Sharks’ overall lack of defensive talent played a part in those results, too, but for a player whose NHL career is built on his success as a checking centre, those results are far from ideal. With the Sharks adding more talent in the offseason, there could be enough depth to cut into Sturm’s ice time. He has played 14:42 per game in two seasons with the Sharks but given the results, redistributing a couple of minutes per game to others on the roster might be best for Sturm. Coming off such a poor season, expectations for Sturm should be modest. He has reached 20 points twice in his career and that would be a fair target for him in the 2024-2025 season.

Barclay Goodrow

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	8	14	22	0.27

Even though Goodrow had an excellent postseason, contributing six goals in 16 games for the Rangers, it was not altogether surprising that the Rangers wanted to move him because he had an abysmal regular season. Goodrow was one of four forwards in the league to play at least 500 five-on-five minutes yet finished the season with a Corsi percentage under 40 percent. He finished with four goals and 12 points, and that followed the two most productive seasons of Goodrow’s career, when he scored 33 and 31 points, respectively. He is a blue-collar player who can play centre or wing, and he plays a hard game, hitting and dropping the gloves, when needed. Nevertheless, his value was inflated by the success he had while winning two Stanley Cups with the Tampa Bay Lightning, and there was little chance that he would ever live up to the six-year, $21.85 million deal that he signed with the Rangers. After three seasons, the Rangers put Goodrow on waivers and he was claimed by the Sharks, his first NHL team. Expect Goodrow to play a significant depth role for San Jose, but he should not be counted on for significant offensive production. It is reasonable to expect something in the range of 20-25 points.

DEFENCE

Jake Walman

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	10	15	25	0.34

Despite scoring a career-high 12 goals and 21 points in 63 games for Detroit, Walman was traded to San Jose, and the 28-year-old blueliner ought to play a significant role for the Sharks. Walman spent most of the 2023-2024 season paired with Moritz Seider and they were fed to the wolves, handling the toughest defensive assignments with a steady diet of defensive zone starts. While their overall results were not great it was a valuable experience and, given the lack of depth on the San Jose blueline, Walman could very well find himself handling major responsibility once again. What Walman showed in a couple of seasons with Detroit is that he can handle the puck on the attack and has some natural finishing talent when he finds himself in scoring position. The question will be if that can happen with any kind of consistency in San Jose? Walman will presumably see significant minutes, including power play time, so the opportunity should be there for him. If Walman can stay relatively healthy, he should be able to set a new high for games played, since he has yet to surpass the 63 games that he has played in each of the past two seasons. If that means playing 70-plus games, then he should be able to challenge for double-digit goals and 20-25 points in the 2024-2025 season.

Mario Ferraro

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	5	20	25	0.31

With Erik Karlsson getting traded to Pittsburgh, the Sharks did little to address that massive hole on the blueline and it left Ferraro as the leading scorer among Sharks defencemen last season. The problem is, he had just 21 points. Ferraro was the workhorse, averaging a team-high 22:52 of ice time per game, but he was not a consideration on the power play, so all 21 points came via even strength. Ferraro has recorded at least 120 hits in each of his five NHL seasons and has gone over 140 blocked shots in each of the past three seasons, peaking at 195 in 2023-2024. Ferraro is a strong skater and is not shy about getting physically involved in the action. The main issue is that without protection from other high-quality defencemen on the roster, because they just don’t exist, Ferraro gets thrown to the wolves. Essentially, he is not being put in a position to succeed right now. Ferraro should be expected to contribute 20-25 points, building on the career-high 21 points he had last season, but without a power play role, there is a clear ceiling on his offensive potential. That is to say nothing of the Sharks’ lack of offensive firepower in general, which does not tend to help out their blueliners. If the young guns, Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith, can elevate San Jose’s attack, then that offers a greater chance that someone like Ferraro could have a little fantasy value.

Ty Emberson

Acquired off waivers from the New York Rangers, the former captain at the University of Wisconsin had two years of seasoning in the American Hockey League, so he was ready for a look with the Sharks last season. Although injuries limited him to just 30 games, Emberson showed in that sample of games that he could be a legitimate NHL defenceman. It would be too soon to make that claim with certainty, but Emberson was among the better defencemen on the worst team in the games that he played. His primary partner on the San Jose blueline was Mario Ferraro, and they were outscored 13-12 in 311 minutes during five-on-five play. That’s not great, but compared to other Sharks pairings, it is encouraging. Emberson had his season shortened by a lower-body injury, which is what makes his projection a little more complicated, but it’s also reasonable to understand that he does not have a track record to suggest that he will suddenly become a significant offensive threat. So long as he stays healthy, Emberson should have a chance to contribute 20-25 points, but he also ought to be able to accrue reliable totals for hits and blocked shots. With 94 hits and 46 blocked shots in 30 games last season, Emberson showed that he is capable of accumulating enough in those peripheral statistical categories.

Henry Thrun

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	5	18	23	0.29

For a Sharks team that is sorely lacking in quality puck-moving defencemen there is a great opportunity for Thrun to handle a big role, including possibly running the point on the top power play unit. It’s not like Thrun is an offensive dynamo, but he did have 63 points in 68 games across his last two seasons at Harvard and four of his 11 points last season came with the man advantage. While Thrun is a smart player who can skate and pass, he is still a young player who experiences the growing pains of a defenceman trying to establish that he is a legitimate NHL defenceman. Trying to prove that with a team that offers so little defensive support is not easy and sometimes the results looked rough during Thrun’s rookie campaign. He has decent size, at 6-foot-2, but is not very physical as a defender, which means he really needs to make a difference with his puck skills. Thrun only has 13 points in 59 NHL games, so any optimistic point projections for 2024-2025 are going to be based on potential. The most reasonable forecast would be for Thrun to contribute 20-25 points in a full season, but there could be a wide range of outcomes because his pro hockey track record is relatively limited.

GOAL

Mackenzie Blackwood

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
35	9	22	3	1	0.902	3.45

Vitek Vanecek

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
18	5	11	2	2	0.898	3.72

No team in the NHL looked worse in 2023 than the San Jose Sharks, who struggled to even put up wins for entire stretches of the season during a painfully apparent rebuild. That’s a tough environment for Mackenzie Blackwood to welcome fellow former New Jersey netminder Vitek Vanecek into - but after taking the reins as the de facto starter last year, Blackwood will hopefully have found his sea legs and help the Sharks as a whole take a small step forward. Blackwood’s numbers certainly weren’t the primary cause for concern in the Bay last year; while he only managed to squeak out ten wins on the whole through 44 starts, he put up wholly winnable performances in over half of his appearances in net. He didn’t quite finish the year at league average, but his overall numbers looked far better than those of a number of netminders who spent the year sitting behind much easier defensive systems; if the Sharks manage to make even a marginal improvement in their play, Blackwood could be enough to keep them from another disastrous free-fall.

Vanecek is by far the bigger wild card for the Pacific Division club, given that his overall stat line from 2023 looked like Blackwood’s inverse; he finished the year with 17 wins in 32 games, but only put up quality starts in 12 of those. That being said, he had managed to clean up a lot of sloppy habits in his game upon his first arrival in New Jersey. Those habits seemed to slip back into the conversation as the 2023-24 season went on, but a lighter workload behind a clear starter in Blackwood could give him the chance to keep his game crisp and polished without succumbing to fatigue.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (March 11th to 17th) – Post-NHL Trade Deadline Impact – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sun, 10 Mar 2024 18:06:59 +0000

_{OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 14: Ottawa Senators Right Wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) after a whistle during second period National Hockey League action between the Philadelphia Flyers and Ottawa Senators on October 14, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)}

The trade deadline is behind us and it certainly was eventful. Although we didn’t get a lot of trades in the leadup to the final week -- just four deals in all of February -- general managers made up for lost time with six trades on Wednesday, 10 on Thursday and 23 on the final day.

This isn’t a winners and losers column, but if it was, Vegas would naturally be at the top of the winners list. The rest of the league might be annoyed at the Golden Knights’ seemingly unending ability to make blockbusters, but as a fan of one of the other 31 franchises, I suspect a lot of that is just because we collectively wish that our general manager had a bit more of Kelly McCrimmon’s boldness and the ownership for the teams we rooted for were a bit more willing to green-light whatever it takes to win.

Vegas added forwards Anthony Mantha and Tomas Hertl as well as Noah Hanifin on Friday. Clearly, the Golden Knights are gearing up for a defence of their Stanley Cup championships -- despite some lacklustre play of late -- but these aren’t exclusively win-now moves. Hertl is signed through 2029-30 and with the Sharks retaining part of his contract, he comes at a reasonable $6.75 million annually for the Golden Knights over that span. Mantha and Hanifin are on expiring contracts, but it is possible Vegas will be able to retain Hanifin’s services long-term.

Carolina also had a pretty interesting trade season with the additions of Evgeny Kuznetsov and Jake Guentzel. Kuznetsov, who has just six goals and 17 points through 43 games this season, is definitely a risk, but it will be interesting to see if a fresh start does him any good. If nothing else, the addition of Guentzel should bolster what was already a pretty solid offense.

Florida also upgraded its forward corps by adding Vladimir Tarasenko. After falling just short of the Cup last year, I’d at the very least say that the Panthers are the team to beat in the East. The only reason why I hesitate to call the Panthers the outright Cup favourites is that I love Vancouver and Colorado in the west.

The Avalanche in particular are looking strong after grabbing Casey Mittelstadt, albeit at the high price of Bowen Byram. Colorado’s offense is the best in the league at 3.70 goals per game, but the Avalanche have been extremely reliant on Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and defenseman Cale Makar to drive that scoring. If you were to have judged the Avalanche from their second line down, then you would have found a team that was wanting. Adding Mittelstadt does a lot to address that shortcoming, though Alexandar Georgiev’s less-than-stellar play is still a concern. The Avalanche might wish they had acquired a veteran backup come playoff time.

Of course, that’s all just scratching the surface of how the trade deadline has changed things. Let’s do a deeper dive while highlighting some of the best teams to utilize this coming week.

Anaheim Ducks - TUE @ CHI, THU @ MIN, FRI @ WPG (BTB), SUN @ STL

The Ducks don’t have much left to play for, but at least their upcoming schedule isn’t too bad. They’ll be on the road next week, playing in Chicago on Tuesday, Minnesota on Thursday, Winnipeg on Friday and St. Louis on Sunday. The Jets are the only of those adversaries in a playoff position.

Anaheim dealt away forwards Adam Henrique and Sam Carrick to Edmonton on Wednesday and acquired Ben Meyers from the Avalanche on Friday.

Meyers was in the minors before the trade, but he’s likely to remain with the Ducks for the remainder of the campaign. Don’t expect too much from him, though. He had six goals in 53 career contests over parts of three seasons with Colorado and is likely to serve primarily on the third line in Anaheim.

The loss of Henrique will be felt, though. He had 18 goals and 42 points in 60 contests with the Ducks this season, which was good for third in the team’s scoring race at the time of his trade. His departure might increase how much Mason McTavish is leaned on. We’ve also started to see a significant spike in Max Jones’ playing time recently -- logging over 15 minutes in each of his past three contests compared to his average of 11:43 over his first 44 outings -- and that’s likely to persist for the remainder of the season.

With the Ducks looking toward the future, Olen Zellweger is likely to stay in the NHL for the rest of the season. Although he has just two assists through his first eight contests with Anaheim, the 20-year-old defenseman has offensive upside and is getting power-play ice time, so he’d be an interesting pickup for the upcoming week given the competition.

Columbus Blue Jackets - TUE @ MTL, THU VS OTT, SAT VS SJS, SUN VS WPG (BTB)

Like Anaheim, Columbus doesn’t have any hope of making the playoffs, but next week’s schedule is still a favourable one for the Blue Jackets. They’ll play in Montreal on Tuesday before hosting the Senators on Thursday, the Sharks on Saturday and the Jets on Sunday. While Winnipeg is having a strong campaign, those other three teams are among the worst in the league.

Columbus was somewhat quiet at the deadline, but the Blue Jackets did part ways with Jack Roslovic and Andrew Peeke.

Their biggest move came earlier when they acquired Alexander Nylander from Pittsburgh on Feb. 22 in exchange for Emil Bemstrom. That wasn’t expected to be a noteworthy move, but Nylander has provided an incredible five goals and seven points in seven contests with the Blue Jackets. Nylander is likely to remain in a top-six role for the remainder of the season, so while he’s unlikely to maintain his point-per-game pace, the 26-year-old should continue to have fantasy relevance.

Roslovic was red hot too with four goals and 13 points in his last 12 games prior to the trade. He was serving primarily on the top line with Boone Jenner and Johnny Gaudreau, but now that he’s gone, Kirill Marchenko might be put in that role. Marchenko has 17 goals and 32 points in 60 contests this season, and the 23-year-old might see his offensive pace increase if he does lockdown that first-line assignment.

One player who didn’t move is goaltender Elvis Merzlikins. There was some suggestion back in January that he would welcome a trade because he was unhappy with his workload. Maybe that issue will get resolved over the summer, but Merzlikins and Daniil Tarasov are likely to share the netminding duties fairly evenly for what’s left of the season.

Detroit Red Wings - TUE @ BUF, THU VS ARI, SAT VS BUF, SUN @ PIT (BTB)

Detroit will continue its fight for a wild-card berth next week. The Red Wings will start by playing in Buffalo on Tuesday before returning home to face the Coyotes on Thursday and the Sabres on Saturday. They’ll complete the week with a game in Pittsburgh on Sunday. None of those opponents are in a playoff position, so it’s important that the Red Wings take advantage by picking up at least six points.

The Red Wings were quiet at the deadline, though to be fair, they made their major move back in November when they signed Patrick Kane. The 35-year-old has gone on to provide 13 goals and 31 points through 31 games, so they have to be happy with that addition.

They’ll need to lean on Kane even more in the short term because Dylan Larkin suffered a lower-body injury Monday that’s expected to cost him at least one more week. While Larkin’s unavailable, Joe Veleno might see his workload increase and consequently should have more short-term value in fantasy leagues.

This could also be a good week for David Perron, who is on a roll with a goal and four points over his past four games. He’s up to 13 goals and 32 points in 56 contests in 2023-24. Defenseman Olli Maatta has looked good recently too, supplying two goals and four points across his last four outings. Maatta typically isn’t a significant offensive contributor, though, so he would be at best a short-term pickup option.

Los Angeles Kings - MON VS NYI, WED @ STL, FRI @ CHI, SAT @ DAL (BTB)

The Kings hold a playoff position, but their postseason berth is far from secure. They’ll need to play next week while hosting the Islanders on Monday and then playing on the road against St. Louis, Chicago and Dallas on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday, respectively.

LA didn’t add anyone at the deadline, so if the Kings are going to get into the playoffs, it’ll have to be with basically the same group they’ve had for the entire year. However, injuries have made their task even harder. Viktor Arvidsson (lower body) has played just four games in 2023-24 while Mikey Anderson (upper body) and Adrian Kempe (upper body) also might not be available next week.

At least Kevin Fiala has been doing his part. The 27-year-old forward has a superb seven goals and 13 points over his last nine games. With his marker Thursday, Fiala reached the 20-goal milestone for the fifth consecutive campaign, but he’s also exceeded 25 tallies just once in his career (2021-22). In other words, don’t count on him providing goals at his recent rate for much longer, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he still ended up having a strong finish to the season offensively.

Drew Doughty has looked good lately too, providing three goals and 12 points over his last 11 outings. Six of those points came with the man advantage, which is noteworthy because LA’s power play has been middling this season with a 22.6 percent success rate. However, the Kings have converted on 32.0 percent of their power plays over their past 11 games, and if they can keep that up, it will do wonders for Doughty’s fantasy value.

It wouldn’t mean much to Matt Roy -- he isn’t typically used with the man advantage -- but the 29-year-old blueliner has three even-strength assists across his past three games. That has brought Roy up to 20 points (three goals) through 61 contests -- this is his third straight campaign with at least 20 points.

Ottawa Senators - TUE VS PIT, THUS @ CBJ, SAT @ NYI, SUN VS CAR (BTB)

Ottawa has a relatively easy start to the week with a home contest against the Penguins and then a road match versus Columbus on Thursday. Things do pick up after that, though. The Senators will play on the road against the Islanders on Saturday in a contest that matters for the Islanders in their pursuit of a wild-card spot. Ottawa will conclude the week by hosting the Hurricanes on Sunday.

The Senators made just one trade in the leadup to the deadline, shipping Vladimir Tarasenko to Florida in exchange for a 2024 fourth-round pick and a 2025 third-round selection. That’s a minimal return for a top-six forward, but Tarasenko’s full no-trade clause tied the Senators’ hands.

Either way, Ottawa’s offense is looking a little thinner between the loss of Tarasenko and Josh Norris potentially missing the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. The top two lines going forward will be combinations of Brady Tkachuk, Shane Pinto, Drake Batherson, Mathieu Joseph, Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux. That will work fine, but the bottom six will be a collection of whatever Ottawa can cobble together.

For example, Boris Katchouk, who was claimed off waivers from Chicago on Friday, is likely to be a regular on the third unit going forward. The 25-year-old has five goals and nine points in 38 contests this season, so he’s not exactly expected to be a scoring threat in that role. Dominik Kubalik, who has averaged 12:30 of ice time this season while providing 10 goals and 14 points across 57 contests, might see his playing time increase too. Ridly Greig might round out that third unit despite recording just three goals and four points over his past 21 appearances.

For what it’s worth, Ottawa also has the option of calling up Angus Crookshank, who has 22 goals and 43 points in 47 contests with AHL Belleville this season. He was limited to a goal and an assist during a seven-game stint with Ottawa earlier in the campaign, but the 24-year-old averaged just 8:50 of ice time. He’d almost certainly get a bigger role if Ottawa promoted him now, so keep an eye out for that.

Pittsburgh Penguins - TUE @ OTT, THU VS SJS, SAT VS NYR, SUN VS DET (BTB)

Although the Penguins’ playoff hopes are all but gone, they still have an opportunity to at least make their final weeks of the campaign interesting. Pittsburgh will play in Ottawa on Tuesday before heading home to host the Sharks on Thursday, the Rangers on Saturday and the Red Wings on Sunday.

As already noted, the Penguins traded star forward Jake Guentzel on Thursday. Pittsburgh also shipped away defenseman Chad Ruhwedel, though the club did add Michael Bunting.

Bunting is an interesting option the rest of the way. He had 13 goals and 36 points in 60 games with Carolina before the trade, which is nothing special, but with Guentzel gone, Bunting might play alongside Sidney Crosby going forward. That’s an ideal assignment that should boost Bunting’s fantasy value.

John Ludvig is the other Pittsburgh player who was significantly impacted by the trade deadline. With Ruhwedel gone, there’s an opportunity for Ludvig, who was last in the lineup on Feb. 18, to play regularly for the remainder of the season. Ludvig isn’t much of an offensive threat with just a goal and an assist through 23 games, but he’s a physical force. The 23-year-old has 23 PIM and 51 hits in 2023-24, so he might have some value to certain fantasy managers now that he’s projected to remain in the lineup.

Beyond that, I’m really interested to see how Crosby performs for the remainder of the campaign. He’s been fantastic with 32 goals and 63 points in 61 outings but has supplied only one helper across his past five appearances. It’s probably just a slump that will end soon, but this is also a new position for the 36-year-old. Crosby is used to playing on a contender. Even last year when the Penguins failed to make the playoffs, they missed by just one point.

Personally, I expect Crosby to bounce back shortly and have a solid finish to the season, but we’ll have to wait and see if being out of contention impacts his motivation more than I suspect.

San Jose Sharks - TUE @ PHI, THUS @ PIT, SAT @ CBJ, SUN @ CHI (BTB)

The Sharks will play in Philadelphia on Tuesday, but that will be their only game next week against a team in a playoff position. After that, San Jose will continue its road trip with stops in Pittsburgh on Thursday, Columbus on Saturday and Chicago on Sunday.

San Jose traded away forwards Anthony Duclair and Tomas Hertl, defenseman Nikita Okhotyuk and goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen at the deadline. The Sharks did get Vitek Vanecek from New Jersey, but the goaltender might be done for the season due to a lower-body injury. Keep in mind, the Sharks were 15-40-7 even before those trades, so to say the squad is in a sad state now would be an understatement.

With Vanecek unavailable, Mackenzie Blackwood will likely be leaned on heavily for what’s left of the season…or at least he will be once he’s recovered from a groin injury. In the meantime, San Jose’s goaltending duo are Magnus Chrona and Devin Cooley. When Blackwood is healthy, Cooley might be sent to the minors. Regardless, none of them are good options in fantasy circles given the team in front of them.

Klim Kostin might have a little bit of value, though, to fantasy managers. The Sharks acquired him from the Red Wings on Friday. He was frequently a healthy scratch in Detroit and averaged just 8:43 when he did play, but in San Jose, Kostin might be a mainstay on the third line. That likely won’t lead to him getting much offense, but Kostin could be a good source of PIM and hits -- he has 38 and 60, respectively, through 33 appearances.

William Eklund might also be able to provide a bit of a silver lining. The 21-year-old hasn’t been as productive as hoped this campaign with 10 goals and 29 points through 60 contests, but he does have two goals and four points over his last four games, so perhaps he’ll end the season on a positive note. Certainly, the Sharks will give him plenty of opportunities at both even strength and on the power play.

Winnipeg Jets - MON VS WSH, WED VS NSH, FRI VS ANA, SUN @ CBJ

The Jets will start the week at home, hosting the Capitals on Monday, the Predators on Wednesday and the Ducks on Friday. They’ll conclude the week with a road game versus the lowly Blue Jackets on Sunday.

Winnipeg added Colin Miller and Tyler Toffoli in separate trades with New Jersey on Friday, which compliments the Jets’ addition of Sean Monahan on Feb. 2. The Jets have enjoyed an effective forward trio of Mark Scheifele (19 goals and 56 points in 56 contests), Kyle Connor (26 goals and 44 points in 46 outings) and Nikolaj Ehlers (19 goals and 44 points in 62 appearances), but the team’s scoring depth up front was lacking. With Monahan and Toffoli in the mix, Winnipeg can now roll two dangerous lines with ease.

This isn’t good news for everyone, though. Cole Perfetti has a respectable 14 goals and 31 points in 61 contests this season, but the 22-year-old has been cold for a while, providing just two assists over his last 21 games. With Winnipeg’s recent upgrades, Perfetti is projected to serve strictly in a bottom-six capacity without much, if any, power-play ice time. He might even be a healthy scratch in situations where everyone is healthy.

Vladislav Namestnikov has averaged 15:04 of ice time this season, but he might see work primarily on the third line going forward. He has been effective recently, though, with two goals and five points across his last five contests while seeing time with Connor and Scheifele, so perhaps the 31-year-old will be able to avoid that demotion in the short term.

Mason Appleton has done well lately too, collecting four assists over his last three contests, but the Jets’ additions will likely push him down in the depth charts too. Although he’s averaged 16:05 in 2023-24, he might play mostly in a bottom-six capacity going forward.