marcus foligno – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – MINNESOTA WILD – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 20:37:34 +0000

ST. PAUL, MN - APRIL 24: Minnesota Wild left wing Kirill Kaprizov (97) looks on during the first period in Game Three of the First Round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs between the Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild on April 24th, 2025, at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)

What started off looking like a massive year for the Wild turned into a scratch-and-claw season to make the playoffs. Injuries crushed Minnesota throughout the year. Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, Mats Zuccarello, Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon each missed significant time and the fact they finished in the first wild card spot with 97 points and held off the St. Louis Blues and Calgary Flames is a credit to them and coach John Hynes. Kaprizov had an MVP-like start to the season and had the Wild off and running to start the season while goalie Filip Gustavsson rounded into form, but as injuries piled up, so did the losses. The Wild’s five-on-five numbers were mediocre all-around and as much as their power play struggled (20th best in the NHL) their penalty kill was a nightmare (30th). It’s difficult to judge the team overall given the spate of injuries compared to their numbers, but the talent level on the team is strong enough to carry them into competing again this season.

What’s Changed?

The biggest addition for the Wild came late last season when 2024 12th overall pick defenceman Zeev Buium signed his entry-level deal out of the University of Denver. He made his Wild debut in the playoffs playing four games and had one assist in 13:36 average time on-ice. He’ll be a fixture in the lineup for years to come as their next puck-carrying offensive defenceman. Re-signing center Marco Rossi (three years, $15 million) took care of what was shaping up to be a potential headache and gives him the chance to prove himself further. Minnesota also added veteran winger Vladimir Tarasenko from the Detroit Red Wings for the low cost of future considerations and brought back center Nico Sturm fresh off winning the Stanley Cup in Florida. They also shipped center Frederick Gaudreau to Seattle and defenceman Declan Chisholm to Washington as well.

What Would Success Look Like?

A return to the playoffs with a healthy lineup would be a fascinating success for the Wild. Their parts with Kaprizov, Rossi, Matt Boldy, Zuccarello, Eriksson Ek, Buium, Brodin, and Gustavsson are very good and with role players like Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman and Jacob Middleton able to grind teams up, they could be a deeply frustrating team in the playoffs. They showed that to a degree in the first round against Vegas last season and you can’t help but wonder how things would’ve gone if they hadn’t gone through the wringer all season. Still, a trip back to the postseason and a first-round series win would go a long way in Minnesota for fans who’ve been desperate for success for years. Doing so in a brutally competitive division again would be a big accomplishment.

What Could Go Wrong?

A repeat of the injury luck from last season would be a way to make life a lot harder. They’re getting a taste of that already with Brodin coming off surgery for an upper-body injury that got to him last season. That he’ll likely miss the start of the season is not the way anyone in Minnesota envisioned the year starting. Any kind of bad luck physically could be what determines their playoff fate and with how good and competitive St. Louis, Calgary and Utah were and with Vancouver and Seattle having designs on getting back into the mix, it’s going to be a difficult battle.

Top Breakout Candidate

It’s impossible not to focus all the attention on Buium this season. He’s got the electrifying skill set to make people think of Cale Makar when he came out of Massachusetts years ago and with his affable personality to match his exciting style of hockey, he’ll get the opportunity to pile up points with the Wild. In two seasons with Denver, Buium had 98 points in 83 games including 24 goals. Minnesota has desperately needed a defenceman capable of leading the rush up the ice for years and Buium’s smooth skating and skills will make him an instant fan favourite.

FORWARDS

Kirill Kaprizov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	45	58	103	1.34

When last season began, all signs pointed toward a potential MVP campaign for Kirill Kaprizov. A lower-body injury just before the holiday break in December interrupted a season that began with 50 points in 34 games that included 23 goals. He missed a month of action and returned for three games before going out again to undergo surgery that kept him off the ice until April. In the end, Kaprizov’s regular season finished with 41 games played and 56 points with 25 goals. The Wild finished fourth in the Central Division with only half a season of his brilliance but did get him back for the playoffs as they secured the first wild card. There he had five goals and four assists in their six-game series loss to Vegas. It’s very difficult not to look back on how he played and wonder what might’ve been, but as he enters a contract season and the (long) possibility of hitting unrestricted free agency next summer, the mind boggles wondering what he could do on top of his effort from last year to boost his asking price. There’s little doubt that a healthy Kaprizov makes the Wild a much, much more dangerous (and fun to watch) team. A repeat performance like that without injury would make Minnesota a true wild card kind of team in the West.

Matt Boldy

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	31	50	81	0.99

For all the brilliance we saw from Kirill Kaprizov, it can’t take away from just how good Matt Boldy was as well for the Wild. Boldy had a career high 73 points in 82 games and put up 27 goals to go with it. He again proved to be a strong performer on the power play with 21 points, and his 10 game-winning goals tied him with Sidney Crosby for second most in the league. Not bad for a 24-year-old in his fourth season. What will be interesting to watch with Boldy this season is how his line shapes up. Last season, he was with Marco Rossi most often and he is an unsigned restricted free agent. Rossi has had trade rumors swirling around him throughout the offseason. With additions like Danila Yurov, Nico Sturm and Vladimir Tarasenko, some of the lines will be in flux, but with Boldy firmly locked into a wing spot in the top six, if he loses his centerman that creates a big hole. Fortunately, Boldy’s abilities make it easier for any center to slide in next to him and make them look good because of how well he handles the puck and uses his size to create opportunities. With the Olympics coming in February and the strong possibility he’ll play for the United States, expect Boldy to have a strong season no matter who he skates with.

Marco Rossi

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	21	38	59	0.79

The situation with restricted free agent Marco Rossi remains up in the air as of this writing. He is unsigned following a career-best 60-point season that included a career-high 24 goals. There have been trade rumors bandied about all offseason long and questions raised about whether the team sees Rossi as a fit for them long term or not. Fans waited not so patiently for Rossi to arrive full-time after the team drafted him ninth overall in 2020, and when he scored 21 goals with 40 points as a rookie two years ago, the collective feeling was his time had arrived. That sensation only increased with his performance last season although it could be argued he didn’t take enough of a big step to necessitate a massive raise on a new contract. Public negotiations are tricky that way. Despite Rossi’s size (5-foot-9, 185 pounds), he plays hard, skates fast and is strong on his feet. He’s a creative player and can get into tight areas to score as well. He’s a supremely talented player, but teams do worry about size despite the history of players who have had great success at that stature. Should Rossi stay with the Wild, it would seem likely he’ll reunite with Matt Boldy with a linemate to be determined (Vladimir Tarasenko, Liam Ohgren). If there’s a trade yet to come, the return will be interesting because the Wild want to win now.

Mats Zuccarello

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
71	17	34	51	0.72

Nothing ages fans harder than seeing their favorite players get older, and it’s part of what makes what we see from Mats Zuccarello so impressive. The Norwegian star will be 38 as the new season starts and he’s been nothing but the picture of consistency throughout his NHL career. Last season, he had 19 goals and 35 assists (54 points) and it marked the fourth straight year he had 50-or-more points and the ninth time he’s done it in his 15-year career. In six seasons with the Wild he averaged nearly 56 points per season, and he joined them at 32 years old. Some players see their production fall through the floor when they go beyond the age of 30, but Zuccarello has excelled when he’s stayed in the lineup. While he’s always capable of scoring goals, he’s been an outstanding setup man and the chemistry he’s developed in Minnesota with Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek over the years has turned that trio into an a highly entertaining and exciting line to watch. Despite how well Zuccarello scored, you have to wonder how much better his numbers would’ve been had Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek not struggled with injury. As it is, he missed 13 games of his own, but with his linemates each missing half of the season, it’s no wonder Zuccarello’s power play numbers dipped so hard. His three power play goals and 16 points were the fewest he had since the shortened 2020-2021 season.

Joel Eriksson Ek

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	24	34	58	0.73

The role injuries played in fouling up what could’ve been a very good season for the Minnesota Wild also wreaked havoc on Joel Eriksson Ek’s season. The Swedish two-way centerman was held to 46 games last season and had 14 goals and 15 assists (29 points). A broken nose and various lower-body injuries forced him out of the lineup numerous times throughout the year and although he was able to play in the Four Nations Face-Off, he was out of the lineup shortly after coming back from the tournament and was out until early April. Although he was back in time for the playoffs, he wasn’t able to have the same kind of immediate success Kirill Kaprizov had. Losing Eriksson Ek for roughly half the season because of all the injuries made navigating the season a lot more difficult for the Wild. The various roles he plays in all situations makes him a vital cog in their operation and going without him shortened everything up throughout the lineup. Provided the lower-body issues are behind him now and can focus on the season, it’ll prove to be a huge benefit for the team, particularly if there’s a move yet to come with the rest of the lineup or Marco Rossi remains unsigned into the season. The Wild had the third worst penalty kill in the NHL last season and although they had an assortment of injuries, going without Eriksson Ek for a lot of it contributed to the poor kill. His work as a defensive center cannot be understated no matter how good he is offensively as well.

Vladimir Tarasenko

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	15	26	41	0.54

Last season wasn’t the happiest of times in Detroit for Vladimir Tarasenko. In 80 games, Tarasenko scored 11 goals and had 22 assists, the worst full season he’s had in the NHL in his career. Although he signed a two-year contract with the Red Wings, the Wild sent Detroit future considerations to take the player and his $4.75 million cap hit off their hands and potentially give him the change of scenery he needs to regain his form. Working in Tarasenko’s favor in Minnesota is the opportunity he’ll have to jump right into action on the wings. The Wild needed more skilled depth there and Tarasenko can provide that even at age 33. He’ll also have a handful of Russians to work with including Kirill Kaprizov and Yakov Trenin. Tarasenko is a few years removed from being one of the most dangerous snipers in the NHL that could put up 30 to 40 goals. Two years ago, he had 23 goals split between time with Ottawa and Florida and that’s the kind of player the Wild would like to see return for them. The big question, however, is where he will fit into the lineup. He could play on the wing opposite Matt Boldy and if Marco Rossi happens to center them, that could be a lot of fun. He’s essentially found money for the Wild, they just need to figure out the best way to make it work with him.

Marcus Foligno

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	13	16	29	0.39

Trying to qualify what makes a player a “throwback style” in the NHL is tough to do because you’re busy thinking about which era of the league are they a throwback to. In Marcus Foligno’s case, he’s an amalgam of the era his father Mike played in the 80s and 90s and what he grew up watching as a kid in the late 90s. Foligno has become a heart-and-soul checking forward for the Wild that provides leadership through action. Whether it’s through delivering big hits, big goals, or fighting opponents, the 34-year-old lays it all on the line. Last season, he had 14 goals and 15 assists in 77 games including 75 penalty minutes. Where Foligno makes a point is his physical play. He led the wild with 253 hits credited and with that kind of game, it’s no wonder that fights happen occasionally. Getting in on the forecheck and hammering defensemen who take too much time to make a pass allows him to change the tone and temperature of any game. As a leader on and off the ice, Foligno does so by example and for the guys that play in the bottom six of the lineup, they follow his lead closely. Yakov Trenin and Ryan Hartman play similar types of games and rolling that group out to change the mood has often benefited the Wild.

Marcus Johansson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
73	12	21	33	0.45

At 35 years old, Marcus Johansson is one of the more senior members on the Wild roster this season. Last year, he had 11 goals and 23 assists in 72 games with 27 of his 34 points coming at even strength. Johansson’s role as a veteran on the team allows him to fit into any situation and while he’s primarily a winger he spent most of last season on the third or fourth line with Frederick Gaudreau and Ryan Hartman. That trio was a bit of a mishmash of styles with Gaudreau being a solid defensive forward, Hartman a bit of physical loose cannon with some touch around the net and Johansson a playmaker and puck possession style player. At this point in his career, the Wild aren’t asking a lot out of Johansson other than playing consistently strong hockey. His smarts for the game and ability to work in the offensive zone gives him an edge against more reckless defenders, but he may be competing for regular ice time against some of Minnesota’s additions and younger players. How coach John Hynes works things out will be something to keep an eye on.

Ryan Hartman

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	16	18	34	0.45

For physical players in the NHL, there’s always a line for what’s a good play to make to deliver a hit and what crosses the line. For Ryan Hartman, crossing that line has become a bit too regular of an occurrence. Last season, Hartman had solid numbers with 11 goals and 15 assists in 69 games with 75 penalty minutes. While he did miss a few games with injury, he also had to serve a 10-game suspension (that was later reduced to eight games) for using his forearm to drive the head of Ottawa Senators star forward Tim Stützle into the ice in February. He’s been suspended numerous times in his career but got the book thrown at him at a time when the Wild were fighting hard in the playoff race. Part of what makes Hartman valuable is his physical play and ability to upset opponents by delivering hits and when he’s focused on his game, the Wild are better for it. Last season he played most often with Marcus Johansson and Marcus Foligno that gave the Wild a group that could deliver heavy physical punishment and contribute occasional offense. For Hartman, that’s all you can ask for. That and staying of NHL Players’ Safety’s radar.

DEFENCE

Jared Spurgeon

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
68	5	27	32	0.47

Wild captain Jared Spurgeon’s return to action last season was one of the season highlights. Two years ago, he was held to just 16 games due to hip and back injuries. Last season, he led Wild defensemen in scoring with 32 points in 66 games. He still missed 16 games after he was injured being slew-footed by Nashville’s Zachary L’Heureux. Spurgeon’s leadership with the Wild can’t be understated. The hard work he put into returning to action after injuries and how he’s been such an outstanding puck mover and defender throughout his career despite being undersized compared to most defensemen shows how tough he is. Throughout last season, Spurgeon was paired with Jonas Brodin and Declan Chisholm although he spent most of his five-on-five minutes with Chisholm due to Brodin’s own injury issues. That pairing performed well together in regard to shot attempts taken and allowed and scoring chance quality generated and allowed. It wasn’t the ideal situation for anyone to navigate, but it’s a compliment to both players that they did well together in a tough situation. Brodin and Spurgeon figure to be reunited this season, although if Brodin does miss the start of the season, it could be Jacob Middleton or Zeev Buium who skates with Spurgeon.

Jonas Brodin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	3	19	22	0.34

Part of what helped the Wild navigate through all the injuries and constant changes to the lineup was the steady play on the blue line from Jonas Brodin. Unfortunately for him and the team, he also had to deal with injuries of his own. Injuries kept Brodin in and out of the lineup throughout the year although he was able to play for Sweden at the Four Nations Face-Off in February. His influence on the Wild blue line this season will again be affected by his health as he had offseason upper-body surgery to repair what nagged at him last season and it may prevent him from being ready for the start of the season. Brodin’s defensive brilliance gets lost in the mix in Minnesota thanks to having a young star like Brock Faber and soon-to-be young star defenseman Zeev Buium. Brodin’s quiet confidence in his own zone and ability to eliminate plays before they can start makes him an invaluable player. Last season, Brodin had four goals and 16 assists in 50 games. Injuries have nagged at Brodin throughout his career, which is deeply unfortunate given how solid of a defender he is. However, if surgery can keep him on the ice for most of the season upon his return, it’s a net benefit for the Wild.

Brock Faber

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	9	26	35	0.43

One of the better trades in Minnesota Wild history continues to pay dividends as Brock Faber’s brilliant play continued for the second straight year. Faber had 10 goals and 19 assists in 78 games last season which was an increase in goals, but a sizable dip in assists after he put up 47 points with 39 helpers in his rookie season and was a Norris Trophy finalist. The drop in points is understandable given all the turnover that occurred on the Minnesota blue line because of injuries. It’s also natural that he’d have a bit of a letdown in his second season in the league as the rest of the NHL adjusted to him. That said, Faber’s outstanding play was still there even without the robust point total. Without Jonas Brodin for 32 games, Faber paired with Jacob Middleton for a large part of the season as they played nearly 950 minutes together at five-on-five. The advanced stats didn’t favour that pairing very well as opponents were able to generate more shot attempts and better quality scoring chances than they were while out there. Faber is young and still figuring out what he can and cannot do in the NHL, but he was also a solid player for the United States at the Four Nations Face-Off and seeing his poise and playmaking in a best-on-best tournament like that was impressive.

Jacob Middleton

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	7	17	24	0.31

With some of the names on the Wild blue line like Jonas Brodin, Brock Faber and Jared Spurgeon it’s easy to get lost in the mix, but Jacob Middleton was able to carve his way into the picture taking advantage of injuries and earning a spot on a pair with Faber. In his fourth season with the Wild, Middleton picked up where he left off the year before and scored a career-high eight goals with 13 assists. His 21 points followed up his career-high 25 from the year before as his straight forward play has earned him coach John Hynes’s trust along the blue line to the point where he averaged more than 21 minutes per game last season. Middleton has helped earn his ice time by laying out for pucks. He blocked more than 100 shots for the fourth time in his career and for the third season in a row (155, 161, 157). He’s also been more than willing to throw the body around as well, something that ideally allowed Faber more of a chance to move the puck freely. If the Wild have to go without Brodin to start the season, Middleton may very well start on the top pairing with Faber again. Experience and chemistry go a long way when it comes to defense and that kind of shared ice time is hard to ignore even if the results last season weren’t totally ideal. Perhaps with better health for the entire lineup those stats will improve naturally.

Goal

Filip Gustavsson

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
54	26	18	6	4	.910	2.64

While it might be tempting to wax poetic about the legacy Marc-Andre Fleury leaves in net in Minnesota - the surprise team where he wrapped up his career years after most of his contemporaries had played their last NHL games - the real story of the 2025-26 Minnesota Wild is that of hopeful optimism and youth. Filip Gustavsson, who had followed up a highly impressive rookie campaign with a lackluster sophomore season in 2023-24, showed he could step up when it counted last year as Minnesota's best NHL goaltender by a mile. Now 27-years old and nearly 170 games into his NHL career, he'll serve as the stabilizing presence Minnesota needs as they look to prove they're ready to challenge in the Central Division long term.

Gustavsson made waves around the NHL at the start of last season for his first career NHL goal, but for Wild fans, he's the perfect positionally sound mainstay who doesn't often get goaded out of position (and proved with his goalie goal that he isn't afraid to have a little fun, too). And his arrival as a featured player on the main stage couldn't have come at a more perfect time for the Wild. With top-ranked prospect Jesper Wallstedt struggling last season both due to a small smattering of injuries and some not-so-minor regression in his game, Gustavsson's reliable play gives Wallstedt the opportunity to ease his way into play without being considered the team's only future hope.

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Washington powers on with Ovechkin, Chicago looks for change – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 07 Dec 2024 16:07:18 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - NOVEMBER 30: Washington Capitals defenseman Jakob Chychrun (6) scores a goal during a NHL game between the Washington Capitals and New Jersey Devils at Prudential Center on November 30, 2024 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Washington had an incredible 13-4-1 record through Nov. 18 thanks in large part to its league-leading 4.33 goals per game. However, that offensive success was built around Alex Ovechkin, who had 15 goals and 25 points through 18 appearances, so when he suffered a fractured left fibula, it was reasonable to wonder how much his absence would impact the Capitals. Going into Friday’s action, Washington seemed to largely be managing the injury well, posting a 4-2-1 record in its first seven games without Ovechkin.

The Capitals offense has certainly taken a hit, but they’ve still managed an impressive 3.43 goals per game since Ovechkin was sidelined. Tom Wilson (three goals, six points), Dylan Strome (two goals, six points) and Connor McMichael (two goals, five points) have been of particular importance over that seven-game stretch.

However, none of those forwards are actually the Capitals’ scoring leader over the stretch without Ovechkin. That honor belongs to Jakob Chychrun, who has three goals and seven points across his past seven outings. Chychrun, who was acquired from Ottawa over the summer, has been a fantastic addition, collecting eight goals and 15 points through 20 appearances. Keep in mind, though, that his 19.0 shooting percentage is far ahead of his career average of 7.2, so we’ll probably eventually see a drop off.

Still, this stretch has shown that Washington is a team with some decent depth and might prove to be a serious contender come playoff time.

One team that almost certainly won’t be playing come the postseason is Chicago. There’s still plenty of hockey left, of course, but with an 8-16-2 record, the Blackhawks seem set to miss the playoffs for the fifth straight year.

Connor Bedard has been fine with five goals and 19 points in 26 outings, but for a player who has as much promise as him, even more is hoped for. Still, it would help if he had more support. Ryan Donato is the only other Chicago player with at least 15 points (10 goals, five assists). To put that into context, 160 players at reached the 15-point mark through Thursday’s action, so an average team should have five players who have reached that milestone.

Goaltender Petr Mrazek has been alright, but he’s not getting much support on offense or defense, which has left him with a 7-11-1 record, 2.86 GAA and .905 save percentage across 19 outings. Chicago fired head coach Luke Richardson after Chicago suffered its fourth straight loss Wednesday and appointed Anders Sorensen as the interim bench boss. Richardson finished his Blackhawks tenure with a 57-118-15 record, so by that measure his departure isn’t surprising, but given that Chicago has been in the midst of a rebuild, it’s hard to be too critical of him.

Still, perhaps Sorensen, who spent the previous seven campaigns coaching for AHL Rockford, including three years as the head coach going into 2024-25, can help accelerate the rebuild somewhat by guiding the team’s young players. He already has familiarity with many of the club’s prospects thanks to his previous role. A fresh perspective might also be good for Bedard, who is naturally critical to Chicago’s long-term goals.

It will be a while before we know if the change to Sorensen was the right move, and success, at least in the short term, won’t necessarily be measured in wins and losses, but the Blackhawks will be an interesting team to monitor.

Buffalo Sabres (Mon vs DET, Wed vs NYR, Sat @ WAS, Sun @ TOR)

The Sabres have hit a rough patch, dropping their last five games to fall to 11-12-3 on the campaign. To be fair, most of those games were against tough opponents (Minnesota, Vancouver, Colorado and Winnipeg handed out four of the five defeats), but Buffalo has more difficult matchups on the horizon. The Sabres will host the Red Wings and the Rangers on Monday and Wednesday, respectively, before taking to the road to face Washington on Saturday and Toronto on Sunday.

Rasmus Dahlin left Tuesday’s 5-4 loss to Colorado because of back spasms and missed Thursday’s 3-2 overtime defeat to the Jets because of the issue. Coach Lindy Ruff described the situation like this via Buffalo’s Twitter account, “It should be short-term, but you never know.” In other words, Dahlin might be fine to play in all four of next week’s games.

He’s a vital part of the Sabres’ blue line, so no one defenseman can fill in for him when he’s not available. That said, Henri Jokiharju should see an increase in even-strength ice time -- Jokiharju logged 20:23 of ice time Thursday, his most since Oct. 16 -- and Owen Power should serve on the first power play unit for however long Dahlin’s out.

Jokiharju doesn’t have much fantasy value regardless, but Power has three goals and 15 points in 26 appearances in 2024-25 despite recording no points with the man advantage, so if he’s given an opportunity to play on the top power-play unit for any extended stretch, that’d be rather interesting.

Regardless of which defensemen dress, Buffalo needs them to help make life easier on the goaltenders. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen could certainly have done more recently -- he posted a record of 0-2-2 with a 3.20 GAA and an .895 save percentage across his past four starts -- but he also faced at least 30 shots in three of those four games, including 41 shots in Tuesday’s tilt.

James Reimer has been used sparingly, posting a 1-1-0 record, 2.05 GAA and .923 save percentage in two starts since being claimed by Buffalo off waivers Nov. 13, but the Sabres’ busy schedule means that he should play in at least one game next week.

Carolina Hurricanes ( Tue vs SJS, Fri vs OTT, Sun vs CBJ)

The Hurricanes are playing in just three games next week, but I still wanted to feature them because those matchups are favorable. All three of the matches will be in Carolina. The Hurricanes will host San Jose on Tuesday, Ottawa on Friday and Columbus on Sunday.

None of those opponents are good defensively -- Ottawa ranks 25th in goals allowed per game (3.20), which is the best of the three -- so this should be a good stretch for the Blue Jackets’ scorers. Perhaps Martin Necas can build some breathing room in the Art Ross Trophy fight. At the time of writing, he’s in first place with 41 points (14 goals), narrowly edging out Nathan MacKinnon (40 points), Kirill Kaprizov (39), Jack Eichel (38) and Sam Reinhart (37).

Necas was held off the scoresheet in back-to-back games from Nov. 29-30 for the first time this season, but he’s responded by scoring two goals and four points across his past two outings.

One lower profile Hurricanes who’s hot is Eric Robinson. The 29-year-old has never recorded more than 27 points in a single season, but he’s well on his way to shattering that record after recording eight goals and 17 points across 26 appearances. Exercise some caution here: His shooting percentage is an unreasonably high 25.0, and he’s still averaging just 12:15 of ice time with no power-play role, so it’s hard to imagine him keeping up this pace. Still, he’s hot at the moment with three goals and four points across his past five appearances, and when coupled with the Blue Jackets’ upcoming scheduled, there’s reason to hope that the good times aren’t over yet.

We should also see continued production out of defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere. He’s fitting in nicely with Carolina, scoring five goals and 21 points in 26 outings, including a goal and seven points over his past six games. Gostisbehere’s success is largely tethered to the power play, which accounts for 15 of his points.

His presence has corresponded with Brent Burns shifting to the second power-play unit this year, which has led to Burns recording no points with the man advantage so far in 2024-25. Burns has a goal and seven points in 26 outings overall, which puts him on track to finish below the 40-point mark for just the second time in 12 seasons (the last time was the shortened 2020-21 campaign).

Columbus Blue Jackets (Tue vs PHI, Thu vs WAS, Sat vs ANA, Sun @ CAR)

The Blue Jackets are 11-11-3, which isn’t great, but they have done better than many projected going into the campaign. Columbus will see if it can maintain that level next week when it hosts Philadelphia, Washington and Anaheim on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, respectively. The Blue Jackets will then travel to Carolina for a game Sunday.

Kirill Marchenko has played a big role in Columbus’ better than expected results. The 24-year-old has 10 goals and 24 points in 25 games this season, putting him well on his way to shattering his mark of 42 points in 2023-24. You’ll usually see him sharing the ice with Sean Monahan, who has fit in nicely with Columbus, providing eight goals and 22 points through 25 appearances.

For the last few weeks, Dmitri Voronkov has typically been the third member of that line. He missed the start of the campaign with an upper-body injury and registered just one point (a goal) across his first six games of 2024-25, but the 24-year-old sophomore has hit his stride, supplying five goals and 10 points over his past 10 outings. He’s still on just 17 percent of Yahoo rosters, so he might be a nice pickup if he’s still available in your league.

On the blue line, Zach Werenski has been a standout performer for the Blue Jackets with eight goals and 27 points through 25 appearances. He’s one of the hottest defensemen in the entire league, recording five goals and 17 points across his past 10 outings.

Minnesota Wild (Tue vs UTA, Thu vs EDM, Sat vs PHI, Sun vs VGK)

The Wild have won their past four games to improve to 17-4-4. Minnesota will try to keep the good times rolling next week, which will begin with a road game against Utah on Tuesday. After that match, Minnesota will spend the rest of the week at home, playing against Edmonton, Philadelphia and Vegas on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Joel Eriksson Ek sustained an injury Tuesday and is week-to-week, and there’s no indication that Mats Zuccarello is close to returning from the lower-body issue that’s kept him out of the lineup since Nov. 14.

If Zuccarello were healthy, he’d almost certainly be playing alongside Kirill Kaprizov and Marco Rossi. His absence led to the lines being shaken up, and Eriksson Ek did skate on the top line with Kaprizov on Tuesday before he got hurt. With Zuccarello and Eriksson Ek both out, Matt Boldy will likely play regularly alongside Kaprizov and Rossi. Boldy has 11 goals and 24 points in 25 appearances, so that’s a strong trio. The forward corps after that, though, looks thin due to the injuries.

Marcus Johansson, Ryan Hartman and Marcus Foligno currently comprise the second line, but none of them have even reached double digits in points. The third unit is Devin Shore, Frederick Gaudreau and Yakov Trenin, which has a combined 15 points this season -- 14 of them from Gaudreau.

Fortunately for the Wild, Filip Gustavsson hasn’t needed much offensive help this year. He’s 12-4-3 with a 2.04 GAA and a .929 save percentage in 19 appearances.

New York Islanders (Tue vs LAK, Thu vs CHI, Sun @ CHI)

The Islanders have three games on the schedule, but two of them are against the lowly Blackhawks -- New York will host them Thursday and play in Chicago on Sunday -- so the Islanders are in a good position there. New York will also host the Kings on Tuesday.

We just discussed how Minnesota’s offense looks thin due to injuries, and the Islanders are in a similar boat without Anthony Duclair (lower body) and Mathew Barzal (upper body), who have logged just five and 10 games, respective. Due to their absences, the Islanders have just two players with at least 20 points, and even then, just barely -- Anders Lee has 21 while Kyle Palmieri has 20. The result is no Islanders player is within the top 50 of the Art Ross Trophy race.

Andrew Gross of Newsday reported Friday that Duclair and Barzal are skating on their own, which is better than not skating at all, but there are several steps between that and playing, so I wouldn’t count on them returning during the upcoming week.

Lee has been one of the few recent bright spots, providing four goals and eight points across his past six games. He’s on a four-game scoring streak through Thursday’s action. Simon Holmstrom appears to have cooled, though. He had back-to-back multi-goal games from Nov. 29-30, but he hasn’t found the back of the net since. Holmstrom has done fine with seven goals and 15 points in 27 outings, but he’s not worth employing in most fantasy leagues except when he’s hot.

New York Rangers (Mon vs CHI, Wed @ BUF, Sat vs LAK, Sun @ STL)

New York is set to host Chicago on Monday, play in Buffalo on Wednesday, have a home game against the Kings on Saturday and conclude the week by playing in St. Louis on Sunday. Let’s not dwell on the schedule, though, the Rangers had an eventful Friday, and I want to dive right into it.

New York traded Jacob Trouba to Anaheim in exchange for a fourth-round pick and Urho Vaakanainen. Importantly, the Rangers didn’t retain any salary, so Trouba’s $8 million cap hit through 2025-26 is now off their books. New York then signed Igor Shesterkin to an eight-year, $92 million contract that will begin in 2025-26 after his current four-year, $22.67 million deal expires.

Let’s start with the defensive changes. Trouba had a fantastic eight goals and 50 points in 82 games with Winnipeg in 2018-19 and was then dealt to the Rangers in the summer of 2019 in exchange for a 2019 first-round selection (Ville Heinola) and Neal Pionk. The Rangers promptly signed Trouba to his current eight-year, $56 million contract.

Unfortunately for New York, the Rangers inked Trouba at the height of his offensive contributions. Over his five campaigns with the Rangers going into 2024-25, Trouba reached the 30-point mark twice, but never hit 40. To be fair, Trouba is a big body, plays a physical game and blocks a ton of shots, so he brings things to the table outside of offense. He also served as the team captain from 2022 until he was traded, highlighting his importance in the locker room. Still, his cap hit was too high for what he brought.

It's telling that the Rangers got very little in return for him, and even with that, some questioned if they won this trade simply by virtue of clearing that cap space. But what did they receive outside of that draft pick? Vaakanainen was taken with the No. 18 overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, but he never developed as hoped. Instead, he should be regarded as a depth defenseman who will likely bounce between the third pairing and the press box. He is also on the injured reserve list due to an upper-body injury, so it might be a bit before he makes his Rangers debut.

Rather than Vaakanainen playing regularly, we might see the Rangers utilize Victor Mancini more with Trouba out. The 22-year-old Mancini has a goal, four points, seven hits and 12 blocks in 10 appearances with New York in 2024-25, and he’s also provided two goals and five points in six AHL outings. Don’t get too excited over Mancini’s offensive numbers, though. He wasn’t much of a producer in the NCAA, recording just four goals and 10 points across 40 outings with the University of Nebraska-Omaha as a Junior in 2023-24.

As for locking up Shesterkin, the cap hit is substantial, but not surprising. He’s proven himself to be a top-tier goaltender, and we’re in a period where the cap seems to be steadily climbing, so there’s logic behind the number. Shesterkin has struggled recently with a 2-7-0 record, 3.93 GAA and .882 save percentage across nine appearances, but he should rebound.

St. Louis Blues (Tue @ VAN, Thu vs SJS, Sat @ DAL, Sun vs NYR)

St. Louis has won four of its past five games, improving to 13-12-2 this season. That still puts the Blues outside of a playoff spot, but at least they’re trending in the right direction. The Blues will play in Vancouver on Tuesday, host the Sharks on Thursday, visit Dallas on Saturday and play at home Sunday versus the Rangers.

Dylan Holloway has been a major part of the Blues’ recent success, contributing four goals and eight points across his past five outings. That brings him up to eight goals and 16 points in 27 appearances this year, but he’s been inconsistent, so enjoy the good times while they last, but be prepared for the other shoe to eventually drop if you grab the 23-year-old during his hot streak.

Jordan Binnington is another extremely inconsistent play, but he has been more hit than miss lately, providing a 4-2-1 record, 2.10 GAA and .925 save percentage across his past seven appearances. He’s 8-9-2 with a 2.87 GAA and .900 save percentage in 20 outings overall and will probably average out as a low-to-mid tier starter this season.

Robert Thomas might still have a great campaign, though. He did miss 12 games from Oct. 24-Nov. 17 because of a fractured ankle, but with that injury now well behind him, Thomas seems to be heating up, providing three goals and six points across his past four games. This might just be the beginning of a longer hot streak for Thomas, who set a career high in 2023-24 with 86 points.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Tue @ NJD, Thu vs ANA, Sat @ DET, Sun vs BUF)

Toronto is having a fantastic campaign with a 16-7-2 record, and the Maple Leafs have won seven of their past eight games. They’ll look to maintain that momentum next week, starting with a road contest against New Jersey. The Maple Leafs will then host Anaheim on Thursday, play in Detroit on Saturday and return home to play against the Sabres on Sunday.

Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies returned from injury Nov. 30, adding to Toronto’s success. Matthews has been especially good since returning, supplying three goals and five points across three appearances, bringing him up to eight goals and 16 points through 16 outings. Matthews tends to score goals in bunches, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him continue to tickle the twine over the upcoming week.

Max Domi (lower body) and Max Pacioretty (lower body) have also been skating with the Maple Leafs recently, so they might be nearing a return too. Once they do, we might see Nicholas Robertson fall out of the lineup. Robertson has been the main disappointment in what has otherwise been a great campaign for Toronto. He has just two points (both goals) in 22 outings in 2024-25. Robertson did find the back of the net Nov. 30, but he was held off the scoresheet in two games since, so that marker didn’t seem to help spark him.

In net, Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz will probably each start in two games next week. Stolarz is 8-4-2 with a 2.23 GAA and .924 save percentage in 14 outings, while Woll is 7-2-0 with a 2.11 GAA and a .922 save percentage in nine appearances, so the Maple Leafs can happily treat them as a 1A-1B tandem.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – MINNESOTA WILD – Team Preview

Tue, 24 Sep 2024 16:00:41 +0000

_{ST. PAUL, MN - APRIL 18: Minnesota Wild forward Matt Boldy (12) lines up during an NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and Seattle Kraken on April 18, 2024, at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN. (Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)}

The Wild missed the playoffs, but they weren’t too far out from a berth, finishing 2023-24 with a 39-34-9 record. For a squad with roughly $15 million in dead cap space because of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter’s bought-out contracts, it’s impressive they could even get close. Kirill Kaprizov (46 goals, 96 points) was phenomenal, but Minnesota still averaged just 3.02 goals per game, putting the squad 21st offensively, and the goaltending duo of Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury floundered despite the Wild’s overall strong defence (the squad tied for seventh defensively with a 2.87 xGA/60). The bigger problem was that Minnesota was simply meh, and that seems to be all the Wild ever are. They’ve had a PTS% above .500 for 12 straight years and have made the playoffs 10 years in that span, but they’ve never gone farther than the second round. They’ve been directionless, neither a major Cup contender nor a team that seems to be making strides towards Cup contention.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Minnesota added bottom-six forward Yakov Trenin. That’s about it. To be fair, defenceman Brock Faber did sign an eight-year, $68 million extension after a fantastic rookie campaign, and veteran defenceman Jacob Middleton was inked to a four-year, $17.4 million contract that will begin in 2025-26, so Minnesota wasn’t quiet even if there wasn’t much roster turnover.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Part of the reason why the Wild were signing those long-term deals that come into effect in 2025-26 while simultaneously staying largely out of this summer’s unrestricted free-agent market is because Suter and Parise will still cost a combined $14.7 million against the cap this year. The good news is this is the last season where the Wild have to endure that level of dead-cap space, but it does mean one more year where there isn’t much hope of being anything better than a middle-of-the-pack team. However, a rebound from Gustavsson, who looked great in 2022-23 before faltering last season, would at least make things interesting.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Would squeaking into the playoffs really be a good thing? Dating back to 2013, Minnesota has had just one top 10 pick (Marco Rossi at No. 9). Credit where it’s due, the Wild did manage to snag Kaprizov in the fifth round in 2015, but maybe it would be better if Minnesota could secure a high pick in the 2025 draft, giving them a valuable piece to the puzzle or trade chip to utilize just as the Wild’s cap situation opens up again. Minnesota isn’t built like a team likely to draft early, but the Wild aren’t built like a contender either.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: The Wild don’t have any ideal players to put in this category for the 2024-25 campaign, but Marat Khusnutdinov is worth watching. He had six goals and 20 points across 55 KHL contests as well as a goal and four points in 16 outings with Minnesota last season. The 22-year-old might start the year as the Wild’s third-line center, which is probably a good role for him because he competes in all three zones, but he doesn’t have high-end offensive upside.

FORWARD

Kirill Kaprizov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	52	56	108	1.35

There is no player more electrifying to watch in Minnesota than Kirill Kaprizov and the kinds of numbers he produces makes him even more exciting. Kaprizov had his third straight 40-goal season and put up 46 goals in 75 games for the Wild. His 96 points were best on the team and the second most he’s had in a season since coming over from Russia in 2020-2021. He had an astounding 41 points on the power play (fifth most in the NHL) including 19 goals (tied for third most with Steven Stamkos). Ever since Marian Gaborik departed Minnesota the Wild sought out a player with the raw ability to fill the net at will and Kaprizov is that guy, only he’s better than Gaborik was. Last season, Kaprizov took on an even bigger role regarding ice time and averaged 21:35 per game, up from 21:07 the previous year. He teamed up with Marco Rossi and Mats Zuccarello to give them a fun trio to watch. With Rossi growing into his role as a center in the league between Kaprizov and Zuccarello, it was a group with high potency. Kaprizov also played a lot of minutes with Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek which created a different kind of wrinkle for how to attack teams. Regardless of who Kaprizov plays with, he’s worth taking time out to watch because anyone that can score with skill and flair the way he can makes it worthwhile.

Matt Boldy

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	32	46	78	0.98

When it comes to breakout players in Minnesota, Matt Boldy is one that’s sure to stand out at forward. A year after he put up 31 goals and 63 points, he posted 29 goals and 69 points to set a new career high in just his third season in the league. All Boldy has done since breaking into the NHL is become an immediate impact player for the Wild and it earned him a seven-year, $49 million extension in January 2023 that kicks in this season. Even though that might be reason to be stressed, the unflappable Boldy will take it all in stride. What’s incredible about his 29-goal output last season is if it wasn’t for an early season injury that cost him seven games in October, he could’ve easily bettered his career high. After he returned to action, he went 10 consecutive games without a goal and scored just once in his first 12 games. That kind of drought can happen to anyone, especially after dealing with an injury, but if he can avoid that the Wild will benefit from his regular output. An encouraging aspect to Boldy’s goal scoring is how he upped his power play scoring going from eight goals two years ago to 10 last season and added 15 assists. Making teams pay for taking penalties is vital to swing games and if Boldy and Kaprizov can each pile up goals, it’ll make opponents dread going to the box.

Mats Zuccarello

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	15	49	64	0.86

Given the number of younger offensive players in key roles at forward, having a veteran like Mats Zuccarello is beyond important. It’s even better when he can produce like he was still a young guy, too. Zuccarello had 63 points in 69 games with 51 of those being assists and 28 of them coming on the power play. On a team that has net-fillers like Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy, having a distributor like Zuccarello does everyone a world of good and that he did all of that at age 36 is outstanding. The biggest thing for Zuccarello and the Wild is that he stays healthy and on the ice. He produced at nearly a point per-game pace last season but missed 13 games. In the grand scheme of things, that’s not too bad, but with how inconsistent the Wild were last season and the changes they made at coach going from Dean Evason to John Hynes halfway through, even missing that many games make it a lot harder to keep up. Minnesota has a good thing in place with Zuccarello playing with Kaprizov and potentially Marco Rossi on their top line and if things fall into place that’s a trio that could lead them back to the playoffs.

Ryan Hartman

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	22	27	49	0.64

Very few players in the NHL play with the kind of ferocious edge Ryan Hartman does and can still put up big offensive numbers. Over the past three seasons with the Wild, Hartman has been a dynamic physical forward capable of playing center or on the wing. Three years ago, he scored 34 goals almost out of nowhere. From that moment on with the newfound offensive confidence, he continued to lean into that role. While injury caused him to miss 23 games two seasons ago, a return to better health last season led him to scoring 21 goals with 24 assists last season in 74 games. He toned down his penchant for taking penalties and increased his proficiency at faceoffs as well to make him a more effective two-way player. Hartman isn’t needed to be part of their top six forward group, instead his set of skills works better in concert with the fierce physical nature of Marcus Foligno to wreak havoc. Although Hartman doesn’t deliver a ton of hits, the ones he makes instantly draw the ire of opponents. For him to be most effective, his line must play straight line, hard hockey and crash the net with impunity to force the issue the way a third line ought to. Expecting another 30-plus goal season out of him might be asking too much, but if he continues to score 20-to-25 and drive opponents mad, it’s exactly what they need.

Joel Eriksson Ek

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	27	33	60	0.76

One of the more unheralded two-way centers in the NHL is Joel Eriksson Ek and it’s about time that changed. Eriksson Ek scored 30 goals last season, the first time he’s reached that mark. He added 34 assists on his way to setting a new career-high in points with 64, breaking his mark of 61 from the previous season. Each season he’s been in the NHL, Eriksson Ek has improved his offensive output either by scoring goals himself or setting up his teammates. His defensive game has always been mindful and strong throughout his career, but watching his offensive game grow over the past few seasons has helped strengthen Minnesota up the middle dramatically. Now that the Wild have worked in some of their top prospects to the NHL, Eriksson Ek has more skill to work with along his wings. Matt Boldy has benefited greatly from having a heady linemate in Eriksson Ek to play off and with a veteran like Marcus Johansson or the electrifying Kirill Kaprizov on the other wing, it gives the Wild a lot of ways to alter their looks up front. What’s more important with Eriksson Ek’s game is that he’s a major contributor in all facets. He’s a vital cog on the power play and is an outstanding penalty killer as well. With that kind of ability, it’s no wonder the Wild value him as much as they do.

Marcus Foligno

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	11	17	28	0.38

Ever since Marcus Foligno joined the Minnesota Wild, he’s embraced what it means to be a leader on and off the ice. He doesn’t wear the captain’s “C” for the Wild, that belongs to Jared Spurgeon, but the way Foligno plays he does it in the way a classic movie hero would lead the charge into battle. Using his size, physicality, and the force he skates with, Foligno can set the tone on every shift. In 55 games last season he had 10 goals and 12 assists to go with 59 penalty minutes. He led the team with 179 hits and considering he missed 27 games, that’s genuinely astounding but was the first time in the past three years he had fewer than 230 hits. His role is clear as a forechecker and shift disturber and he played it to the hilt. Unfortunately, that style of play comes at a price. It was the second straight year Foligno missed significant time because of injury. Two years ago, he missed 17 games and had one fewer point than he did last season with 10 fewer games played. His value to the Wild comes from being in the lineup and playing like a leader on the ice and not having him out there hurts. It’s perhaps not a coincidence that two of the Wild’s acquisitions this summer were hard-hitting, physical players (Jakub Lauko and Yakov Trenin). If Foligno can stay healthy, the Wild will be better for it.

Marco Rossi

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	24	36	60	0.73

Wild fans have waited somewhat patiently for 2020 first round pick Marco Rossi to arrive and stick in the NHL and good things have come to those who waited. Rossi had 21 goals and 19 assists in 82 games last season, his first full one in the NHL, as he graduated out of the AHL and put the hard road since he was drafted behind him. After injuries and a brutal bout with illness, his presence in Minnesota last season injected more excitement to the lineup. He eventually teamed up with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello on the top line and that trio was able to click and produce scoring chances and goals by the bunch. Rossi’s explosion on the scene was a welcome sight given that in his prior 21 NHL games played in the previous two seasons he had just one assist and only 18 shots on goal. While those situations were different, the lack of production then was enough to cast doubt on him even despite the success he had in the AHL. Those fears were allayed quickly once the points happened with regularity. It may have been one season, but this kind of ability is what made Rossi a top pick in 2020, and he’ll be expected to build on that this season. With linemates like he will have, a big year is possible.

Marcus Johansson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	9	22	31	0.41

If one thing’s been proven over the past few seasons, it’s that when Marcus Johansson is healthy, he’s a solid and capable contributor down the lineup. Although he’s not the kind of scorer he was in his younger years with the Washington Capitals, he can help the offence in ways that don’t show up on the score sheet. Last season, the 33-year-old had 11 goals and 19 assists (30 points) in 78 games with a goal and five assists on the power play. Those are not positively eye-popping numbers, but at five-on-five, Johansson was north of 50 percent when it came to shot attempts (50.5) and shot quality for (51.5). Given how Johansson was used in a utility way in the lineup, he was able to keep up with essentially three different lines. He spent virtually equal amounts of five-on-five ice time with Joel Eriksson Ek and Marco Rossi (more than 300 minutes) and nearly 150 minutes with Frederick Gaudreau. Having a versatile style to be able to work with three distinctly different centers is commendable. What would help the Wild and Johansson, however, is a steady spot on a line where they can find chemistry and gel throughout the season. No player is going to be at their best if they’re being shuffled around the lineup and if Johansson is going to produce more offence, finding a group to click with as soon as possible in camp would go a long way to helping that.

Frederick Gaudreau

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	9	11	20	0.25

An area the Wild will need to strengthen if they’re going to push for a return to the playoffs will be their bottom six forward group. While their third line is relatively strong, the fourth line needs some players to step forward to surround center Frederick Gaudreau. Last season, Gaudreau had five goals and 10 assists in 67 games in was strictly a fourth line role. Those lower lines aren’t meant to be havens for offence and those players aren’t generally lynchpins to ensure success, but they’ve still got to positively contribute. Gaudreau had a host of different linemates ranging from Marcus Foligno to Marcus Johansson to Pat Maroon to Ryan Hartman and Brandon Duhaime. With guys constantly shifting around in the lines it’s tough to build chemistry. Fortunately for Gaudreau, he was also on special teams, particularly the penalty kill unit. Unfortunately, Gaudreau was a witness to how much the Wild’s penalty kill struggled as they had the third worst unit in the NHL, only beating out Anaheim and the New York Islanders. Lots of things could’ve gone better for him and the rest of the team, but a new season means a chance to write a new script.

DEFENCE

Jonas Brodin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
68	4	24	28	0.41

It was an exceptionally frustrating season for Jonas Brodin. The Wild’s No. 1 defenceman missed 20 games due to injury and it was a crucial blow to the team as they fell short of the postseason. In 62 games, Brodin had seven goals and 20 assists and averaged 23:22 per game in ice time, second only to rookie Brock Faber. It was the second straight season that injuries prevented him from playing a full season and now at the age of 30 he’ll be looking to put that all behind him and push to get the Wild back to the playoffs. Brodin has never been a big point producer from the blue line, rather his specialty comes from how he handles the defensive part of the game. His way of controlling his area of the ice, denying passes and entries and having spot-on gap control makes him one of the top defensive defencemen in the league, albeit without much fanfare. He’s been excellent at controlling the puck and generating more shot attempts than opponents while also helping to generate a higher quality of scoring chances for his own team. It’s necessary for him to stay healthy for the Wild to get back to the postseason. Even though Faber stepped up far beyond what anyone dreamed, if he must try and take it all on himself again, it’s a lot to ask of a guy that young.

Brock Faber

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	13	43	56	0.68

If it wasn’t for Connor Bedard in Chicago, Brock Faber would’ve won the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year in a landslide. Faber’s first NHL season was a revelation in Minnesota. In 82 games he had eight goals and 39 assists and averaged an unbelievable 24:58 time on-ice per game as a 21-year-old essentially fresh out of college. From the season opener until the end of the year in April, Faber earned big ice time and even bigger responsibilities. Among defencemen, he played the most minutes on the power play and the penalty kill on top of carrying the load at even strength. Although a lot of that burden was added when Jonas Brodin missed 20 games due to injury, it doesn’t take away from the fact that he had to do it and prior to this season he played all of two NHL games after he signed out of the University of Minnesota in the spring of 2023. It’s virtually unheard of for rookie defencemen to play that many minutes so soon into their career. Defence is an exceedingly difficult position to adapt to in the NHL after coming out of any lower level, be it junior hockey or college. Faber not only jumped in right away, but he was also one of the best in the league instantly. Where he goes from here will be exciting to watch. Sophomore seasons can be tough on young defenders. If he can match last seasons output and grow as a player, that would be a successful season.

Jared Spurgeon

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
68	6	22	28	0.41

A reoccurring theme on the Minnesota Wild blue line was injuries and how they decimated their best players and Jared Spurgeon was hit the hardest. The Wild captain was held to just 16 games because of injuries to his hip and his back that each required surgery. In those games, he had no goals and five assists and still managed to play 23:20 per game. At 34 years old, dealing with damage like that meant he needed to make sure he did the right thing lest he wind up being worse off. He’s expected to be ready for training camp and should all go well he’ll be in the lineup on opening night. Spurgeon’s ability to move the puck well through all three zones and provide an offensive spark from the blue line was very much missed. In his previous two seasons he put up 40 and 34 points respectively and was a vital part of the Wild power play as a setup man from the blue line. He was also a key player on their penalty kill as well and given how poorly that unit performed all season, getting him back in the fold would provide a huge lift. In the few games he played last season, Spurgeon paired up with Jacob Middleton for most of his five-on-five minutes while Jonas Brodin worked with Brock Faber. Getting Spurgeon back with Middleton makes most sense and will provide him with a boost in performance. Here’s to hoping good health finds him and remains.

Jacob Middleton

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	5	19	24	0.30

Two years ago, when the Wild acquired Jacob Middleton from San Jose they nabbed a depth player who made a name for himself after he paired up with and played well alongside Erik Karlsson. Adding anyone who can play off an elite puck mover and scorer like him has inherently good abilities themselves and when he landed in Minnesota he immediately went to work next to Jared Spurgeon. But when Spurgeon missed most of last season and Jonas Brodin was sidelined for 20 games, Middleton was pressed into duty on the Wild’s top pairing with rookie Brock Faber. On the upside, Middleton had a career year with seven goals and 18 assists (25 points). He had only scored seven goals in his career before last season and had a total of 32 points in the five previous seasons he appeared in the NHL. It’s encouraging to see a player make the most of added responsibility and Middleton was able to do that. There was a downside, however, as Middleton and Faber did not work as well defensively as Faber did with Brodin or even as well as Middleton did with Spurgeon. At five-on-five, the pairing was outshot heavily and the two of them were better away from each other than together. In a crisis you make the best of things and that’s what they did, but with Brodin and Spurgeon returning from injury, the pairings should return to what they were before, and everyone should benefit from it.

GOAL

Marc-Andre Fleury

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
28	15	10	3	1	0.902	2.92

Filip Gustavsson

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
51	27	19	6	4	0.908	2.62

It feels like no one could have predicted that of the great goaltending giants of the early aughts, Marc-Andre Fleury would be the longest-standing starter. But two months shy of his fortieth birthday, Fleury is poised to spend at least one more year between the pipes for the rebuilding Minnesota Wild, saving heir apparent Jesper Wallstedt from being brought up to the big leagues too early and providing a lighthearted tandem for Filip Gustavsson as he prepares to be the new veteran in next year's tandem. Fleury's age finally started to show this past season, with the bulk of his goals against coming when he seemed a little too gassed to make the high-flying saves he's always been known for. Always a goaltender who thrives best when playing a rhythm-based game full of fluid movement and smooth, quick skating, Fleury struggled to transition out of butterfly when faced with defensive breakdowns and cross-ice playmaking from his opponents.

Jesper Wallstedt has been quietly tearing up the AHL, though, and it does the Wild no good to bring him up early and shatter his confidence. So, expect Gustavsson - who quietly put up decent numbers last year as a true tandem with Fleury - to start to shoulder more of the workload, expect Fleury to serve as a guiding voice for the two up-and-comers, and expect to see a new face in net by the time the 2025 season kicks off 12 months down the road.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – MINNESOTA WILD – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 11:39:17 +0000

SAINT PAUL, MN - FEBRUARY 17: Minnesota Wild left wing Kirill Kaprizov (97) shoots the puck while being defended by Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen (4) during the NHL game between the Dallas Stars and the Minnesota Wild, on February 17th, 2023, at the Xcel Energy Center in Saint Paul, MN. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)

Review: The Wild are enduring a nightmare cap situation with the decision to buy out Zach Parise and Ryan Suter leaving the Wild with roughly $12.8 million in dead space in 2022-23. It’s hard to remain competitive under those conditions, but Minnesota ended up being solid with a 46-25-11 record. Goaltender Filip Gustavsson deserves a good share of the credit. In his first season out of Ottawa, the 24-year-old (25 now) posted a 22-9-7 record, 2.10 GAA and .931 save percentage in 39 outings. Veteran Marc-Andre Fleury wasn’t as good, but he was at least solid, and the combination resulted in Minnesota allowing the sixth fewest goals per game (2.67). The Wild sorely lacked scoring depth, but Kirill Kaprizov’s 40 goals and 75 points, complemented by Mats Zuccarello, Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek each recording at least 60 points, was enough to take advantage of the expert goaltending on most nights. What it wasn’t enough for was to push the Wild forward in the playoffs, though, and they consequently were ousted in the first round by Dallas.

What’s Changed? Very little, thanks to Minnesota’s cap situation. Defenseman Matt Dumba and enforcer Ryan Reaves left as free agents. Meanwhile, the Wild acquired bottom-six forward Patrick Maroon from Tampa Bay.

What would success look like? With Suter and Parise’s cap burden swelling to a combined $14.7 million this year, the Wild will once again be at a competitive disadvantage. Still, goaltender Gustavsson and forwards Eriksson Ek, Kaprizov and Boldy are young, positioning Minnesota to have a solid core for years to come. The Wild’s awkward cap situation runs through 2024-25, but after that they’ll be able to make major additions at a time when their core is in its prime. In the meantime, this is largely the same group that got them to the playoffs last year, so a similar outcome in 2023-24 wouldn’t be absurd.

What could go wrong? Though perhaps too much is resting on Gustavsson’s shoulders. He’s only played in 66 career NHL games, and not every goaltender who looks great at first goes on to have a strong career. If he regresses, that would be a huge problem because Fleury, who will turn 39 in November, shouldn’t be counted on to start regularly at this point. As it is, there’s no guarantee he’ll even be a good backup given his age.

Top Breakout Candidate: Although Minnesota had four players last year with at least 60 points, no one else on the team reached even the 40-point milestone. The Wild desperately need secondary scoring and Marco Rossi might be able to provide that. He’s been limited to an assist in 21 career NHL games, but Rossi has a lot of offensive upside and shined in the AHL last season, scoring 16 goals and 51 points in 53 outings. He should get a long look during training camp as a middle-six option.

Forwards

Kirill Kaprizov - LW

For the Minnesota Wild to have one of the most exciting players in the NHL, it’s a rare treat for their fans and for fans around the league. In just his third season, Kirill Kaprizov dazzled by piling up goals by the bucketload. He had his second straight 40-goal season by putting 40 up on the nose. His 75-point season was a drop from the 108 he had the year before, but he also missed 15 games because of a lower-body injury. Kaprizov led the Wild in goals and points for the third consecutive year and because of his outrageous ability to create offense, he’s hands down the Wild’s most important player. Minnesota was 23rd in the NHL in goals scored and Kaprizov accounted for 16.7 percent of them and nearly a third of their total offense. The Wild had strong goaltending and defense, but they had only a few players capable of finishing with regularity (four players had 20 or more goals). Kaprizov’s regular success since entering the NHL shows he can continue to do it and it’s clear the Wild absolutely need him to keep it up. While he and Mats Zuccarello were regularly together, Ryan Hartman’s injury hurt their overall production. A healthy Hartman should help Kaprizov make a run at the century mark once again.

Joel Eriksson Ek - C

The Wild’s outstanding two-way center was having a huge season for a team that was eager to make noise in the postseason, but ultimately, Joel Eriksson Ek’s season was derailed in April because he broke his leg blocking a shot late in the regular season. Eriksson Ek had 23 goals and a career-high 61 points last season in 78 games. Eriksson Ek attempted to return in Game 3 of their first round series against Dallas but lasted 19 seconds before departing for good. He ultimately needed surgery for the broken leg and will be ready for training camp and the regular season. Eriksson Ek has built up his offensive game steadily over his career, increasing his output each season since he entered the league in 2016-2017. The bar is set high for him now after his performance last season, but he teamed up mostly with Marcus Foligno and Matt Boldy last season, the latter of whom was third on the Wild in goals and points. A healthy Eriksson Ek will be vital to them returning to the postseason and improving their success therein. He’s vital to their 5-on-5 play, of course, but also to their power play and penalty kill. Do-it-all players like Eriksson Ek are the difference makers in the playoffs.

Matt Boldy - LW

While Kirill Kaprizov gets most of the attention in Minnesota, Matt Boldy is their other young star player who gives fans the most hope of a Stanley Cup down the road. In his second season in nearly twice as many games, Boldy scored 31 goals and had 63 points. He was third on the team in both categories and eight of his goals came on the power play. The Wild believe in Boldy in a big way. They signed him to a seven-year, $49 million extension in January and based on the numbers he put up, it was a heads-up move by GM Bill Guerin because further 30-goal seasons (or more) would’ve made that price a lot more uncomfortable. At 22 years old, Boldy is the key young player for the Wild. As good as Kaprizov is, he’s 26 years old after coming over from Russia. Boldy, the 12th pick in the 2019 draft, was one of the Wild’s top performers in possession and expected goal percentage at 5-on-5. While that’s not surprising for a player that had the kind of success he did, for a player at his age it’s beyond encouraging to see that he’s already among the best on the team. His career is just getting started, but the future for him is very bright.

Ryan Hartman - RW

An upper-body injury wreaked havoc on Ryan Hartman last season. In 59 games, he had 15 goals and 37 points. After putting up 34 goals and 65 points two years ago, the injury sidetrack was a tough blow for him and the Wild alike. Hartman plays a rugged, physical game and is a menace all over the ice, particularly around the net in the offensive zone. Despite missing 23 games after getting injured in a fight, he was second on the team in penalty minutes (90) which affirms how much he’s able to get under the skin of opposing players. Hartman’s physical nature is needed as the center between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello because those two players aren’t out there to throw the body and get nasty. Hartman handles the dirty work, and he does it well and gets rewarded for it by cashing in on points. Hartman’s become a de facto No. 1 center because he’s most found between those two players. With Marco Rossi potentially on the way to the NHL this season, things could change up the middle for Minnesota’s forward units, but after the consistent success Hartman has had, it would take significant improvement from Rossi to unseat him.

Mats Zuccarello - C

It’s hard to find players as consistently strong offensively as Mats Zuccarello. The 35-year-old Norwegian was second on the Wild with 67 points. Zuccarello is a solid even strength scorer, but he’s also dynamite on the power play. He had nine goals and 29 points on the man advantage last season, and he averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game playing on the Wild’s top line. His production was a bit down compared to two years ago, but considering his age and that he had a career-high 79 points then, that he was still one of the team’s top scorers and vital to their success, it says everything you need to know about him. He teamed up on a line with Kirill Kaprizov and Ryan Hartman (as well as Sam Steel in Hartman’s injury absence) and that group drove Minnesota’s offense throughout the season. While Kaprizov and Hartman do more damage scoring goals, Zuccarello excels at setting them up to score. It’s hard to think coach Dean Evason would break that trio up this season, but if Marco Rossi makes a strong case in training camp or throughout the season, things could change. That said, the chemistry those three players have is outstanding and that goes a long way to helping set the lines. This season is a contract year for Zuccarello, and he’ll be 36 once it begins. He’ll have a lot to play for every year from here on out until he retires.

Marcus Johansson - RW

A return to Minnesota was just the thing Marcus Johansson needed to rejuvenate his game. Johansson began last season with Washington, but the Wild re-acquired him around the trade deadline and in 20 games in Minnesota he posted 18 points including six goals. Overall, he had 46 points in 80 games between the Capitals and Wild, but his play to close out the season with Minnesota earned him a new two-year, $4 million contract to stay put. Johansson was last in Minnesota in 2020 after he was acquired in a trade with Buffalo. He played 36 games in the COVID-19-shortened season and put up 14 points in 36 games and later departed for Seattle in free agency. But his return to the Twin Cities lit a fire under him and he also contributed two goals in the Wild’s six-game series loss to Dallas in the first round of the playoffs. His offensive abilities are strong, and he gives the Wild key depth they’ll need to keep up with the other playoff contenders in the West. Johansson played well on a line with Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy and it stands to reason he’ll be back with them again when the season begins. Johansson will turn 33 this season so his veteran presence is important, but they’ll need him to help spur Boldy to more goals and help on the power play even more this year.

Marcus Foligno - LW

Although he’s not the captain of the team, there’s little doubt that one of the Wild’s strongest on-ice leaders is Marcus Foligno. “Moose” takes care of business on the ice by chipping in with the occasional well-timed goal but also by delivering punishing hits and the occasional fight to fire his teammates up. He had seven goals and 21 points in 65 games last season (lower-body injuries caused him to miss games throughout the year) but he led the Wild with 237 hits which placed him in the top-15 in the NHL in that category. He also led the team with 97 penalty minutes. While that’s not the kind of category you want a player to lead, his penalties were generally crimes of effort because of the physical nature. Two seasons ago, Foligno had a career year with 23 goals and 42 points and assuredly the Wild would love to see him return to that kind of form, but he’ll need good health to allow for that possibility. He teamed up most often with Joel Eriksson Ek last season as well as Jordan Greenway before he was traded to Buffalo. This season he may wind up on a line with Frederick Gaudreau depending on how things shake out. One thing that’s for sure is whoever he’s on a line with can reap the benefits of having one of the league’s hardest working players leading the way.

Frederick Gaudreau - C

One of Minnesota’s most pleasant stories the past two seasons has centered around Frederick Gaudreau. When the Wild signed him as a free agent in the summer of 2021, he just finished his fourth NHL season after a year in Pittsburgh and three previously in Nashville with plenty of time spent in the AHL as well. Since becoming a regular with the Wild, he’s scored 33 goals and has 82 points in 158 games. He set a career high with 19 goals last season and finished with 38 points. His first season in Minnesota saw him put up 44 points. Playing as a third line center, Gaudreau has found a home in Minnesota and a role as the ultimate versatile forward. He played most of his minutes last season with Matt Boldy but also carved up equal amounts of time with Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov, Jordan Greenway, Brandon Duhaime, and others. Having a player like that who can step in between any two wingers and be able to be productive and not a detriment is desperately needed for any team in the league. The Wild having Gaudreau score 35-to-45 points while being that guy helps steady their lineup in general, but he particularly makes their middle-or-bottom-six more potent offensively.

Brandon Duhaime - RW

When Brandon Duhaime arrived in the NHL two seasons ago, he announced his presence with physical authority delivering hits and racking up penalty minutes. Last season, things calmed down a bit but a lot of that was due to unfortunate upper-body injuries that held him to 51 games. In that time, he had nine goals and one assist but still managed to pile up 146 hits and 42 penalty minutes. When you consider he had 122 PIM and 201 hits in 80 games in his rookie season the year before, it’s easy to identify which part of the game was missing from the Wild lineup. Duhaime’s feisty play fed Minnesota’s energy lines where he teamed up most often with Conor Dewar, Ryan Reaves, and Frederick Gaudreau. The message was clear when he took a shift: it was time to stir the game up and raise the temperature a few degrees. As he enters his third season, he’s hopeful the injury issues will be behind him so he can contribute regularly and give the Wild more of the physical element they’re looking for deeper in their lineup. Duhaime has no reluctance to get involved and it’s made him a favorite among the fan base.

Pat Maroon - LW

The Wild’s six-game ouster from the postseason to Dallas last year sent a message that was clear as day to read: They needed a spark. They were pushed around by the Stars and often outclassed despite it being a six-game series and to address that they brought in a Stanley Cup champion ringer in Pat Maroon. After winning the Cup three seasons in a row with St. Louis and twice with Tampa Bay, Maroon will try to bring that good fortune with him to St. Paul where the Wild could use a hearty injection of his gamesmanship and grit. Last season with Tampa Bay, Maroon had five goals and 14 points but led the NHL with 150 penalty minutes. He also posted 172 hits and while hits aren’t a lacking category on the Wild with the likes of Marcus Foligno and Brandon Duhaime among others, Maroon’s play helps establish the tone. The Wild didn’t trade for Maroon as a means to reinvent the wheel so to speak, but rather to give them a third- or fourth-line winger who can contribute and knows what it takes to go all the way and that’s a book full of lessons the Wild need to desperately study.

Defense

Jonas Brodin - D

When it comes to defensive defensemen, Jonas Brodin stands out among them as one of the most respected in the league. While Brodin can help with the offensive game, it’s how he handles himself and opponents when he’s on the ice that makes him special. He’s always tasked with the toughest matchups and must fend off the league’s most ferocious scorers, game in and game out. Brodin missed 22 games last season and had three goals and 14 points last season which was a down year for him. In recent years, 20-to-30 points has been a more likely outcome, but he can partially be excused thanks to injury. Still, his 0.23 points per game as his lowest output since 2018-2019. All that said, Brodin was the Wild’s best defenseman in shot attempt percentage and was second best in expected goal percentage. Steady is what teams want from defensemen and the Wild are ecstatic that Brodin is nothing but steady. He averaged the most time on-ice per game on the roster and as he goes, so does Minnesota’s defense. Being solid defensively doesn’t often make the highlight reels, but Brodin is exceptional in his ability.

Jared Spurgeon - D

The Minnesota Wild captain showed why he earned the “C” on his jersey with how he handles the blue line. His 34 points was the best among Wild defensemen as were his 11 goals. Spurgeon has always had a strong offensive game throughout his career and his point total fell in line almost perfectly with his career output. In six of the past seven seasons, he’s scored 30-or-more points and that one outlier season was the COVID-19-shortened 2020-2021 season and he still had 25 points that year. Spurgeon is the guy that once owned the power play but now he’s become their penalty killing stalwart thanks to the arrival of Calen Addison. That said, he’s still getting time on the power play just on a support unit instead of the main group. He averaged nearly 22 minutes of ice time per game last season and got Lady Byng votes because he only had 14 penalty minutes. Spurgeon’s all-around play is outstanding and even though he’s not exactly a large-sized player at 5’9” 166 pounds, he performs in a big way. The Wild count on him in a big way and that he paired up almost exclusively with Jacob Middleton last season, he’s got a partner who will do a lot of the dirty work needed to free him up to create offensively when needed.

Calen Addison - D

Trading Jason Zucker was not an easy move for the Wild back in February 2020, but that they came away with the Pittsburgh Penguins’ top prospect at the time turned out to be a big win because Calen Addison has lived up to his scouting reports. Addison got his first full-season taste of the NHL last season after splitting time between the AHL and NHL the previous two and put up 29 points including three goals in 62 games. Addison’s skill as a puck mover was well evident in his play and how he was able to conduct himself as the Wild’s No. 1 power play quarterback was strong as the Wild had the No. 15 power play in the league and scored 21.4 percent of the time. What the Wild hope to see out of Addison this season is a guy who’s grown into his skin and the roles he’ll move ahead with on the team. He showed savvy and confidence in how he handled the puck last season, but after getting the first real season under his belt, they’ll bank on him to be a lead puck mover in all situations and to improve upon his all-around numbers on the power play and ideally give the Wild a power play to be feared across the league.

Goaltending

Filip Gustavsson - G

When the Minnesota Wild traded veteran Cam Talbot to the Ottawa Senators and brought in the younger, cheaper Filip Gustavsson, it seemed like a gamble designed just to tide them over until prospect Jesper Wallstedt was ready to go pro. And instead, Gustavsson took the opportunity to prove that sometimes, all a young goaltender needs are a new environment with a little more structure; after putting up one of the worst performances of the rotating carousel of goaltenders Ottawa had trotted out the year prior, Gustavsson put up not just the best performance in Minnesota but one of the best in the entire league.

Gustavsson boasts a litany of prototypical Swedish goaltending traits, preferring to push across the crease from his knees and staying in motion rather than setting and trying to maintain good mental rhythm without physical accompaniment. But while he struggled not to show his hand too early during his stint in Ottawa, the more structured environment of Minnesota’s goaltending situation helped to give the young NHLer a chance to establish better harmony with his defense and look more at home holding his feet instead of giving himself away. He looked more in control of the space he occupied in the blue paint during his time with the Wild last year, and the reliability of his game – he doesn’t seem to try to do too much, even when things get chaotic around the net – helped elevate the team’s play in front of him, too. With Marc-Andre Fleury creeping closer to 40 and the team likely needing to limit the future Hall of Famer’s starts more in the coming year, the real test will be to see just how well Gustavsson can replicate his successes from last season as the likely de facto number one for the Central Division club.

Projected starts: 50-55

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – MINNESOTA WILD – NHL Player Profiles

Joe Yerdon – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 18:58:24 +0000

ST. LOUIS, MO - APRIL 16: Minnesota Wild left wing Matt Boldy (12) starts to turn up ice during a game between the Minnesota Wild and the St. Louis Blues on April 16, 2022, at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis MO (Photo by Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Kirill Kaprizov

A lot of players after a monster rookie season will have the infamous “sophomore slump” but then again, most players aren’t Kirill Kaprizov. The 25-year-old Russian built upon his Calder-winning season by scoring 47 goals and 108 points. That point total made him fifth in the NHL and his goal total tied him with Winnipeg’s Kyle Connor for fifth best. Kaprizov set Wild team records for goals, assists (61), and points in a season and set the team record for most even strength goals (33) along with Ryan Hartman. Kaprizov was also the best forward when it comes to possession with a 53.6 CF% at 5-on-5, as only defenseman Jared Spurgeon (55.4) was better. Unsurprisingly, Kaprizov was the most dangerous player on the power play leading the team with 14 goals and 31 points. To call him a difference-maker since joining the Wild would be a vast understatement. He’s a legit top-10 player in the NHL and one of its elite scorers. The questions now are how long he can perform at this level, and can he exceed what he accomplished last season. He’s already a challenger for both the Rocket Richard and Art Ross trophies and gunning for the Hart Trophy comes naturally with those. Expect him to be in all those conversations this season.

Mats Zuccarello

It’s rare to see a player have the best season of their career after turning 30, but at 34 that’s precisely what Mats Zuccarello did. He was third on the Wild with 79 points including 24 goals. Zuccarello teamed up with Kaprizov and Hartman to have, perhaps, one of the most unexpected offensive explosions by a line in the NHL. Early in his career with the New York Rangers, Zuccarello was a steady offensive player capable of scoring 45-60 points per season. His first season with Minnesota was disappointing comparably, but the past two seasons has seen him produce at the best rates of his career (0.83 and 1.13 points per game). Teaming him up with Kaprizov likely has a lot to do with that jump, if not everything, but it’s still better than almost every other season he’s played in the NHL. That doesn’t generally happen for players past age 30, never mind their mid-30s. What benefits him most is he’s a naturally smart player on offense and has tremendous vision for passing as well as a sky-high hockey IQ. His size was something always used as a reason why he wouldn’t have success, but at 5-foot-8, 184 pounds he’s proved that size doesn’t always mean results.

Joel Eriksson Ek

The 25-year-old from Sweden has become one of the better defensive forwards in the league. Eriksson Ek was the Wild’s first round pick (20th) in 2015 and the improvement in his game over the past five seasons has been as impressive as it is noticeable. He set career-highs in goals (26), assists (23), and points (49) and was the smallest player on his line with Marcus Foligno and Jordan Greenway. Mind you, Eriksson Ek is 6-foot-1 and 208 pounds. He was third on the team in key advanced statistics with a 53.2 CF% and 56.9 xG%. Eriksson Ek fits in well with his linemates because, like them, he’s unafraid to throw his body around. He was fourth in hits with 138 behind Foligno (238), Brandon Duhaime (201), and Greenway (155) respectively. Physicality is contagious, but to have it come from what’s essentially the No. 2 scoring line makes them a rare team the way the NHL is played these days. Most teams will have fast-skating or overly agile lines with finishing ability, the Wild instead have a line that will punish opponents physically and drop the gloves if needed and it’s Eriksson Ek who drives the line in all those facets.

Ryan Hartman

In the seven seasons prior to last season, Ryan Hartman never scored more than 20 goals or had more than 31 points in a single season. To say that his 34-goal, 65-point season came out of nowhere is beyond true. Even in his two years previous with the Wild there was never any kind of hint this kind of outburst was possible, never mind likely. What stands out about it is that it’s the first time he played center in a full-time basis meaning, like Buffalo’s Tage Thompson, an unexpected position change turned Hartman into a goal-scoring dynamo. What helped Hartman’s scoring explode was how he shot 14.2 percent on 239 shots, career-highs in both categories as well. Is regression likely to hit hard? Probably. In his other seasons, the highest shot percentage he posted was 11.2 percent in his first full NHL season with Chicago. Normally he’s been between 8-10 percent. That said, in no other season did he play with offense drivers like Kaprizov and Zuccarello. That Hartman is a dogged forechecker with a willingness to hit, it gives him an element to his game that his linemates Kaprizov and Zuccarello lack and plenty of reasons to watch and see if he can continue to be an offensive factor.

Matthew Boldy

The anticipation that surrounded the eventual arrival of Matthew Boldy to the NHL was at a high level in the Twin Cities and when he made it to the Wild, the wait was worth it. In 47 games, Boldy posted 15 goals and 39 points and is poised to become a serious point producer from here out. The 21-year-old was the 12th overall pick in the 2019 Draft and signed with the Wild after he finished his sophomore season at Boston College in 2021. After 24 total games in the AHL in the past two seasons, his move to the NHL happened at a rapid pace, but sometimes players just need to be where they’ll flourish best. At 6-foot-2, 201 pounds, Boldy has an NHL build. He also has the kind of vision and play-making ability to improve everyone around him. He also excels at helping creating scoring chances. Boldy posted a 57 percent expected goals rate, behind only Foligno. What will be curious to watch is where Boldy factors into the lineup. It would appear their top two lines from last season are back, and Kevin Fiala–who was traded to Los Angeles–was the other winger on Boldy’s line with Frederick Gaudreau. That will put the onus on coach Dean Evason to find ways to get Boldy more involved.

Marcus Foligno

In his first 10 NHL seasons, Marcus Foligno never broke the 20-goal mark, nor had he scored 30 points in a season. Last season he was able to check off both accomplishments with a 23-goal, 42-point campaign. He also never had a season with more than 100 penalty minutes either until he had 112 last year. Through his career with Buffalo and Minnesota, 30-year-old Foligno has always been a physical player who thrives on throwing the body and wearing down opponents in the process, but he’s never been the kind of offense driver he was last season. Foligno isn’t a prolific shooter. He’s never had more than 100 shots in a season, although he came close last year with 98. All this does is make it impossible to predict how he’ll score by examining his shooting percentage. Where Foligno does a lot of damage is in close to the net cleaning up rebounds and pouncing on pucks down low. His 23.5 percent shooting last season was highest in the NHL and was down four percent from the previous season. Even with all those physical numbers, his possession numbers were still strong with a 52.5 CF%, He also led the team with a 57.8 xG% which exemplifies how he's getting scoring chances in quality areas consistently while also not being on the ice for many against him. With his play style and willingness to stand up for teammates, he’s very much the heart and soul of the Wild.

Frederick Gaudreau

The Wild were a team that thrived on players having productive seasons out of the blue. Another such player was center Frederick Gaudreau. The 29-year-old from Quebec earned a spot on the Wild out of training camp and took full advantage of it and posted a career-year with 14 goals and

44 points. It was Gaudreau’s first season playing entirely in the NHL, and he earned his way onto the third line where he teamed up with Kevin Fiala and Matthew Boldy to give the Wild a third line with equal parts skill and speed. At 6-feet tall and 179 pounds, Gaudreau is a deft skater who uses forechecking to get the puck back when his line doesn’t have it. He also carved out a consistent role with the team by being solid on special teams. Gaudreau had three points on the power play and was one of their regular players on the penalty kill. Although special teams were not one of their strongest areas, Gaudreau’s penalty kill numbers, respectively, were good. If he can build on his solid play from last year, chances are strong he’ll be able to improve his stats as well.

Jordan Greenway

As part of one of the biggest, most physical lines in the NHL that can also fill the net, Jordan Greenway casts an imposing shadow. At 6-foot-6 and 227 pounds, he’s the definition of what a power forward is built like and is a tenacious forechecker as well as a physically punishing player. He hits a lot, and he hits hard. His 155 hits last season was third-best on the Wild behind Foligno and Duhaime who each had more than 200 apiece. Greenway averaged 14:34 in ice time last season and his numbers differ from his linemates Foligno and Eriksson Ek because he doesn’t get much, if any, time on special teams. Greenway is out there to wear teams down at even strength and to intimidate opponents to keep them from winning too many puck battles in corners and along the boards. Even though descriptions like that don’t sound flattering to his offensive abilities, he can add points too. He had 27 points last season, five off his career high, and his 10 goals were two shy of his career-high 12. With the way his line plays and the fact Foligno has made a living crashing the net in Minnesota, it stands to reason Greenway could scrum his way into more goals.

Tyson Jost

The 24-year-old forward and No. 10 pick from the 2016 NHL Draft was a late-season acquisition from the Colorado Avalanche which sent Nico Sturm to Denver. As a one-for-one deal it was a means of getting two players a new setting to turn things around. In 21 games with Minnesota, Jost’s first impressions were OK with two goals and four assists. In all 80 games with the Wild and Avalanche he totaled eight goals and 12 assists. His 20 points are in line with how he’s performed in his previous four-plus seasons. Unfortunately, his average ice time per game has dipped slowly since then. His 12:51 per game with the Wild wasn’t great but was nearly a minute-and-a-half more than Sturm played and two-plus minutes more than others who were regular players like Duhaime and Nick Bjugstad. With a fresh training camp with Minnesota there’s an opportunity for Jost to grab a spot on the third or fourth line and perhaps be the latest Wild player to break out. With Kevin Fiala gone to L.A., there’s a spot up for grabs next to Gaudreau and Boldy, presumably, and Jost’s junior and college career showed he has skill to fill the net. If he can reclaim that ability the Wild would be even more dangerous in the Western Conference.

DEFENSE

Jared Spurgeon

The Minnesota Wild captain thrived last season. Known best for his puck handling ability, and he used that to become their best all-around threat from the blue line. He had 40 points, with 10 of those goals, to be the top scorer on defense. He also led defensemen in key advanced statistical measures with a 55.4 CF% and a 56.4 xG% at 5-on-5. To be a player that unites both old-school and new-school types means doing a lot of everything right. Spurgeon’s 40-point season was his best since 2018-2019 when he had a career-high 43 points and by reaching 10 goals it marked the fifth time he hit double figures in the category. Spurgeon split time among two different partners on the blue line in Alex Goligoski and Jacob Middleton. With Goligoski he had a CF% of nearly 59 percent. But after Middleton was acquired from San Jose at the trade deadline the two were paired up quite often and his possession numbers were below 48 percent. Of course, Middleton’s main strength isn’t exactly puck carrying. It’s tough to believe those two would remain a pairing with those results, but the Wild offense scored almost twice as many goals as allowed at 5-on-5 (15-8) when they were together. Maintaining production and giving Spurgeon a partner that doubles as a bodyguard can be appealing.

Jonas Brodin

All Jonas Brodin does game in, and game out is play superb defense. That’s a big undersell for one of the most under-appreciated blue liners in the NHL. Brodin led the Wild in average ice time per game clocking in at 23:26 per game. He piles on the minutes because he’s their No. 1 defenseman at 5-on-5, their top defender on the penalty kill, and worked the second power play unit. It resulted in him having a career-high in points with 30, seven on the power play. At 29 years old, Brodin is as steady as can be but at a very high level. He paired up with Matt Dumba almost exclusively last season, but also had Dmitry Kulikov when Dumba missed time. His possession numbers were slightly higher with Kulikov than Dumba, but Brodin and Dumba were excellent in keeping scoring chances reduced. In general, Brodin was solid in advanced numbers. At 5-on-5 he had a 52.5 CF% (third-best among Wild defensemen) and his 55.5 xG% was second only to Jared Spurgeon on defense. A big reason for that is how well Brodin handles the puck in general as well as under pressure. Expect him to again be the rock upon which the Wild defense is built.

Matt Dumba

This will be a season to watch Matt Dumba closely because he can become an unrestricted free agent in July. Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin are already locked in long-term and the Wild have the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts causing them cap pain for the next few seasons. The Wild added defense prospect Brock Faber in the Fiala trade and Calen Addison is knocking on the door. The Wild love Dumba but it’s fair to ask if this will be his final season in Minnesota or if he’ll even finish the season there. As one of the Wild’s jack-of-all-trades defenders, the one thing that got in Matt Dumba’s way last season was injury. A trio of injuries, two upper-body and one lower, caused him to miss 23 games, but during the 59 he did suit up he did well. He put up seven goals and 20 assists for 27 points with five coming on the power play. Since he spent nearly 90 percent of his 5-on-5 time with Brodin, there was plenty of ice time and Dumba averaged 23:06 per game. It was the sixth straight season Dumba averaged 20 or more minutes a game. Dumba plays in all situations and shows consistently how his steady game can cool down excited situations in the defensive zone. His heavy shot from the point can provide an option on offense as well. If this is it for him in Minnesota, the Wild know they’d be losing someone important.

Jacob Middleton

The allure of a tough player in the NHL will always attract fans, GMs, and coaches alike and that’s what makes Jacob Middleton so popular. Standing 6-foot-3 and 219 pounds, Middleton is a certified big guy and his penchant for using it to wear opponents down and give a bit of protection for his defense partners makes him an attractive player. Minnesota acquired him at the trade deadline last season from San Jose in exchange for goalie Kaapo Kahkonen and put him right to work with Jared Spurgeon. While their skill sets and sizes couldn’t be more different, he was brought in almost specifically with Spurgeon in mind.At nearly 27 years old, it took Middleton a few seasons to crack through to the NHL being stuck in what was a loaded Sharks system. But there he saw plenty of time providing a physical balance on a pairing with Erik Karlsson. Middleton isn’t a point-getter. In the AHL he maxed out at 28 points in 67 games with AHL San Jose back in 2017-2018. He’s also not even a tough guy in the classic sense because he’s never eclipsed 100 PIM in a season going back to his junior hockey days. But his strength comes in being smart about throwing hits (he had 118 between the Sharks and Wild last season) and not backing down from a fight (11 career fighting majors through 80 NHL games). Expect to hear more about Middleton as the season goes on.

GOALTENDING

Marc-Andre Fleury

It’s hard to say just what Minnesota is going to get this year – and it might be even harder, if possible, to root against them. They’ll enter the 2022-23 season with veteran Marc-Andre Fleury – who, with Mike Smith out in Edmonton, will be the second-oldest goaltender in the league – as their clear starter, fresh off a bizarre whirlwind year that saw him dealt to the rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks and forced to make his case on the ice in order to earn a move to the playoff-bound Wild mid-season.

Fleury will be 38-years old by the time the season is over, and the story remains the same as it has been for the last four years. As one of the NHL’s most high-octane and reflex-driven goaltenders, his game will only thrive if he’s able to continue playing at the level he’s been at for the last eighteen years. He’s only as good as his most dynamic saves, and he can only post those when he’s able to perform at an elite level for a full sixty minutes. With every passing season, the wear and tear he’s sustained – his 939 career regular season NHL games are seventh among goaltenders all-time – make it riskier to bet on him continuing to achieve that goal from a technical standpoint. But despite that, he’s managed to defy the odds each and every passing season; he likely can’t pull off a 70-game season without hitting a lull, but he managed to even post quality numbers behind the free-falling Blackhawks until they dealt him to the Wild within the Division. He continues to have some magical level of youth that keeps him pushing smoothly through his crease and out into the slot, although he’s managed to rein in some of his tendencies to over-slide and get set out near the hashmarks. And ultimately, eighteen years in the NHL – behind lottery-worthy teams and Stanley Cup contenders alike – have gifted Fleury with incredible instincts. He knows his limitations at this point enough to know when to pull out all the stops and when to make the simpler save, and that seems to have left him capable of preserving his energy enough to keep his teams in games even when everyone expects him to finally bow out. The real question, it seems, isn’t if he’s still got life left – it’s simply if he has enough life left to get the Wild through a deep playoff run this year.

Projected starts: 60-65

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Jake DeBrusk’s surprising emergence, Andrew Copp, Josh Anderson, Nico Hischier, and more.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 04 Mar 2022 15:40:49 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Jake DeBrusk’s surprising emergence, Andrew Copp, Josh Anderson, Nico Hischier, and more.

OTTAWA, ON - FEBRUARY 19: Boston Bruins Left Wing Jake DeBrusk (74) skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Boston Bruins on February 19, 2022 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Early in the season, Boston Bruins winger Jake DeBrusk seemed lost and, seeking a fresh start, requested a trade. He did not get the trade and now has landed a plum role playing on the right wing of the top line alongside Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. DeBrusk is delivering results, too, putting up nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 22 shots on goal in the past seven games.

#2 One of the players getting a lot of buzz as the NHL Trade Deadline approaches, Winnipeg Jets forward Andrew Copp recently returned from injury and has produced 30 points (13 G, 17 A) in 48 games. He has also generated a career high 2.75 shots on goal per game and that offensive activity, paired with Copp’s ability to play just about anywhere in the lineup – center, wing, scoring line, checking role – explains why the pending unrestricted free agent is drawing a lot of trade interest. For fantasy managers, it might be worth a speculative add of Copp now, before he lands in a new home where his offensive upside could get a boost.

#3 Sticking with Winnipeg, Jets center Adam Lowry is offering enough offense recently to have some fantasy appeal. In the past seven games, Lowry has six points (4 G, 2 A) and he has put up 157 hits in 54 games so if there is any kind of adequate scoring contributions, Lowry’s hit totals could make him appealing in deep leagues.

#4 Montreal Canadiens right winger Josh Anderson recorded a hat trick in Winnipeg Monday, giving the power horse seven points (6 G, 1 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past seven games. There has been some discussion about whether the soon-to-be-rebuilding Canadiens would move Anderson but if he is scoring, there is likely a spot for him in the Montreal lineup because his physical play serves as a strong complement to linemates Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.

#5 Columbus Blue Jackets right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand quietly goes about his business and, with nine points (6 G, 3 A) and 27 shots on goal in the past 11 games, Bjorkstrand is up to 18 goals in 52 games. For fantasy managers, Bjorkstrand adds value with his physical play, delivering 59 hits in 52 games. His career high is 64 hits in 82 games during the 2017-2018 season, so it seems very likely that Bjorkstrand will surpass that number while scoring 25+ goals by season’s end.

#6 While Jack Hughes gets more of the spotlight in New Jersey, Nico Hischier is giving the Devils another scoring option in the middle of the ice. In his past nine games, the Devils captain has produced 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and 23 shots on goal, thriving on a line with Pavel Zacha and Jesper Bratt.

#7 Devils rookie Dawson Mercer has recently been moved to right wing on the top line, skating with Jack Hughes and Yegor Sharangovich. Mercer has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past eight games. That shot total is rather low, but Mercer is now tied with Nashville Predators winger Tanner Jeannot for sixth in rookie scoring with 32 points.

#8 A player for deep league managers to keep an eye on down the stretch could be Ottawa Senators center Colin White, who had missed most of this season after suffering a shoulder injury in the preseason. In his first three games after recovering from surgery, White has a couple of points but also has 12 shots on goal and has a role on Ottawa’s second power play unit.

#9 Anaheim Ducks veteran Adam Henrique is heating up, scoring six points (4 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal in the past five games. Skating on a line with Ryan Getzlaf and Troy Terry, the five-time 20-goal scorer is in a decent spot to provide offense for Anaheim.

#10 A four-point night against Toronto last Saturday lifted Detroit Red Wings defenseman Filip Hronek to 12 points (2 G, 10 A) in his past 17 games. With 28 points in 50 games, Hronek is now scoring at a career-best per-game rate (0.56 points per game).

#11 It is easy for rookie defensemen to get overlooked, especially if they are not Moritz Seider of the Detroit Red Wings, because Seider is a leading contender for the Calder Trophy. However, there are other freshman defensemen that are contributing offensively, too. Anaheim’s Jamie Drysdale (3 G, 20 A in 56 GP), Nashville’s Alexandre Carrier (2 G, 18 A in 49 GP), Los Angeles’ Sean Durzi (2 G, 13 A in 37 GP), and Toronto’s Timothy Liljegren (1 G, 10 A in 37 GP) are chipping in. Colorado’s Bowen Byram (5 G, 6 A in 18 GP) was impressive before his season was derailed by concussions. Arizona’s J.J. Moser (3 G, 7 A in 27 GP) has had positive early results, too.

#12 Although he does not score nearly as much as he did during the seasons when he quarterbacked the Buffalo Sabres power play, Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is a category monster. Since returning from the December schedule pause, Ristolainen has 81 hits in 20 games. The only defensemen with a higher hits-per-game average since the pause are Radko Gudas and Luke Schenn.

#13 Looking for a fresh start in Arizona, after a terrible start to the season in Toronto, Coyotes left winger Nick Ritchie has two points (1 G, 1 A), seven shots on goal and 12 hits in his first three games for the Coyotes. No need to race to the fantasy waiver wire for him just yet but Arizona should be invested in Ritchie having a role on their team next season so they might give him a good opportunity to play an important role down the stretch.

#14 With 14 goals in 53 games, Arizona Coyotes left winger Lawson Crouse is one away from matching his career high. He is also one of seven forwards to have more than 10 goals and more than 150 hits. The others are Nashville’s Tanner Jeannot, Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk, Washington’s Garnet Hathaway, Nashville’s Luke Kunin, Washington’s Tom Wilson, and Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno.

#15 In the history of the National Hockey League, there have been five seasons in which a forward has had less than five goals and more than 30 assists. One of those seasons is happening right now, as Blue Jackets winger Jakub Voracek has just two goals to go with 38 assists. That ratio is the highest of assists-to-goals for a forward ever (minimum 20 assists), surpassing Henrik Sedin’s 2017-2018 season when he had three goals and 47 assists.

#16 While the Boston Bruins have spent much of this season seeking a second line center to replace the departed David Krejci, they might have stumbled onto something recently with Erik Haula. The veteran forward has been skating between Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak and is on a five-game point streak, during which he has contributed seven points (2 G, 5 A).

#17 In his sixth NHL season, St. Louis Blues forward Ivan Barbashev has erupted, setting career highs in goals (17) and points (41). He has been a useful depth player for the Blues prior to this season but Barbashev’s ice time is up more than three-and-a-half minutes per game from last season and he has responded to the bigger role by producing. While Barbashev is not likely to keep scoring on 20.5% of his shots over the long haul, he also offers added fantasy value with 89 hits in 52 games.

#18 When looking at Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals for individual skaters, there are a dozen players that have exceeded their expected goals by more than six. That list includes Boston’s David Pastrnak, Columbus’ Patrik Laine, Nashville’s Filip Forsberg, Colorado’s Gabriel Landeskog, St. Louis’ Brayden Schenn, Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Buffalo’s Tage Thompson, Toronto’s Auston Matthews, New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt, St. Louis’ Jordan Kyrou, Detroit’s Dylan Larkin, and the Rangers’ Mika Zibanejad. Some of these players are elite finishers, so they should be expected to outscore the expected goals model, but they also might be due for some statistical regression, too.

#19 On the other hand, there are some notable forwards that are well below their individual expected goals. That group includes Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk, Toronto’s John Tavares, Boston’s Patrice Bergeron, Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher, Arizona’s Phil Kessel, Los Angeles’ Trevor Moore, Seattle’s Jordan Eberle, Vancouver’s Nils Hoglander, Calgary’s Mikael Backlund, as well as Edmonton’s Jesse Puljujarvi and Warren Foegele.

#20 At this stage of the season it can be difficult to find goaltending value on the fantasy waiver wire, but there are some backups worth keeping on your radar. Since the December schedule pause, Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (.947 SV%), Washington’s Vitek Vanecek (.937 SV%), St. Louis’ Ville Husso (.934 SV%), Ottawa’s Anton Forsberg (.930 SV%), Colorado’s Pavel Francouz (.926 SV%), the Islanders’ Semyon Varlamov (.923 SV%), and Minnesota’s Kaapo Kahkonen (.923 SV%) have all had positive results. Some, like Swayman, might be taking the starting role but most are still trying to carve out any kind of bigger role with their respective teams.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

NUMBERS AT WORK: Break-out Players from Out of Nowhere

Corey Sznajder — Mon, 20 Dec 2021 23:37:38 +0000

Out of nowhere, behind the league’s most surprising breakout players

NEWARK, NJ - NOVEMBER 24: Minnesota Wild right wing Ryan Hartman (38) skates during the National Hockey League game between the New Jersey Devils and the Minnesota Wild on November 24, 2021 at the Prudentil Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

When we think of breakout candidates, it’s usually a few versions of the same player. You have former high draft picks that are expected to take the next step and players in their early 20’s who produced in limited minutes and should see their point totals go up as they ascend in the lineup. It doesn’t always happen immediately. It took players like Viktor Arvidsson about a year before he started producing while others like Matt Moulson had to wait until they were in their mid-20’s before they got a chance. What about players who have an insanely productive season out of nowhere, though? As in, a player who posts 20 goals and 40 points out of nowhere after hundreds of NHL games with minimal production, at least as far as boxcar stats go. Goals and points aren’t everything but getting them from an unexpected source is always nice for both the team and the player.

The 2021-22 season is young, but there’s been a lot of unexpected names at the top of the goal-scorer leaderboard. One team that has benefitted the most from this is the Central Division leaders, the Minnesota Wild. Their current goal-scoring leaders are Marcus Foligno and Ryan Hartman, both of whom have 13. Hartman showed an offensive upside at one point, scoring 19 goals with the Chicago Blackhawks back in 2017, but the production from Foligno is something even Dean Evason likely didn’t see coming.

This is a guy with over 600 games of NHL experience and the Wild know his value. He plays high in the lineup and has been low-key one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL over the past few seasons. He’s moved up in the lineup despite not producing many points and has helped anchor the Wild’s main matchup line with Joel Eriksson Ek. The 11 goals last year probably felt like a bonus to the Wild and his 13 goals this year are more than they could have ever hoped for.

An offensive outburst like this basically never happens for a player in his 30’s, even for someone like Foligno who has a high career shooting percentage (13.3%). He’s primarily been a checking line player, but he has played higher in the lineup the last two years and even got some time alongside Jack Eichel during his time in Buffalo. His role was just never one where he got many touches with the puck, and he settled into more of a forechecker whose offense comes in the form of rebound chances. What changed this year?

The short answer is power play production, and his line is spending more time in the offensive zone. He has four goals with the man advantage and some of his tendencies at 5v5 have made him an integral part of Minnesota’s second power play unit. Foligno isn’t much of a volume shooter, but he has always been very good at getting to the front of net and locating loose pucks in the crease. All of his power play goals are where you’d expect them to be, right in the goalie’s vision and the Wild have done a nice job of having their power play not be too stationary, moving Foligno and Hartman around in the slot area so they can either look for a deflection or converge to the front of the net when there’s a loose puck.

Foligno also uses a shorter stick than most players his size, so he uses it more like a shovel or a pitchfork when he shoots. He has less power but more control over where the puck is going, which helps explains why he’s very good around the net and scoring off so many loose pucks. It’s also interesting how someone with such a high shooting percentage rarely “shoots” the puck for most of his goals. Just part of what makes him such an interesting player and why this season definitely came out of nowhere.

Some of this will even out. As it stands now, Foligno would be on-pace for 36 goals in full 82-game season. A more likely outcome is his shooting percentage regresses closer to his career average and he ends up with 23-24 goals, assuming he continues to generate shots at a rate that’s consistent with his career average. Either way, those are career highs across the board and there’s some hope that his line can produce more shots because of how they play. Him and Eriksson Ek are two of the better players in the league at disrupting zone exits and recovering dump-ins from the neutral zone, which helps create sustained possession for the Wild. It also leads to turnovers and quick plays that leave space open in front of the net, which is where this line does most of their dirty work for Minnesota.

This chart can be used as a proxy for how well teams perform on the forecheck and you can see the Wild have a lot of players who grade well here. Let’s talk about three players who don’t grade particularly well; Ryan Hartman, Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello. The Wild’s “other” top line and easily their most dangerous offensively. The reason why they don’t grade well in these stats is because they play a different style of hockey, primarily attacking off the rush and keeping control of the puck on long cycles. Most of this is powered by Kaprizov but Hartman’s fit as the center of this line is worth talking about. Primarily used as a winger before he got to Minnesota, Hartman seemed like he would top out as a depth guy who would show some flashes offensively. For the Wild, he’s centering their best player and reaping the benefits of the great playmaking from both Kaprizov and Zuccarello.

Getting to rebounds and deflections is part of this, but the other layer is how great he’s been as a passing option for the Wild’s more skilled players. Reading off his linemates and positioning himself well in the slot or in front of the net to capitalize on all the space these two create. Kaprizov is one of the top players in the league at completing cross-seam passes and passes from behind the net. Hartman has been on the receiving end of these plays more than anyone else on the Wild and it’s helped put him on his way to a career season.

The dynamic of this line is very interesting because if you remember back in October, Kaprizov was struggling to get himself going and he was playing with two guys we talked about earlier; Eriksson Ek and Foligno. This trio didn’t gel like the Wild had hoped and part of it goes back to the different playing styles. Kaprizov with two forechecking players ended up wasting some of his strengths with the Wild playing a lot of dump-and-chase with this line on the ice and Kaprziov left doing one-man cycles high in the zone. Zuccarello fits the puck-possession style Kaprizov prefers playing and Hartman’s shown to be a very smart player with how he reads off these two.

Another interesting wrinkle to this line is lack of a “true” center. Zuccarello has played the position before, but he still plays most of his shifts on the boards. It’s kind of a moot point aside from faceoffs because of how Kaprizov and Zuccarello dominate the puck when they’re out there, especially in the neutral zone. So, the center doesn’t matter as much as it necessarily would in a more traditional setup, especially with how much this line cycles and carries the puck into the zone. It’s more of a read and react style of play rather than worrying about where you’re supposed to be on the ice in the context of the system. Either way, they’ve been one of the most fun lines to watch in the league this year.

Speaking of wingers moving to center and vice versa, we have to talk about the biggest “out of nowhere” season in Evan Rodrigues. The Pittsburgh winger is currently 34^TH in the NHL in 5v5 points tied for 10^th for 5v5 assists. He had some modest production in Buffalo three years ago, but his 29-point season in 2019 looked like it would be his peak, finding his niche as a depth player in Pittsburgh. Then this season happened. The Penguins were destroyed with injuries, forcing Rodrigues into a top line role and to say that it gave him a second wind would be an understatement.

Pittsburgh used him in all three forward positions during this stretch and Rodrigues went from looking like just another depth guy to a mainstay in their top-six. He is currently flanking Sidney Crosby’s right wing, and his skillset has proven to be a nice complement to Sid. It could just be a confidence thing or a player needing an opportunity, but it’s still impressive to see a player take-off like this at 28 years old. Rodrigues is a little different from the Foligno/Hartman examples because those two had more of a track record of being solid NHLers outside of their point production. Rodrigues was a guy who struggled to fit in with Buffalo full-time and was a healthy scratch in the playoffs for Pittsburgh last year. Injuries forced him into a high-profile spot and he took full advantage of it.

What’s impressive to see is how much his game has changed from where it was in Buffalo and even last year in Pittsburgh. He was more of a shoot-first player who would play as a high forward on cycles. Shooting mostly from distance off the rush and trying to pick his spots from there. In Pittsburgh, he’s been using his linemates better and it’s made him more of a Swiss Army type of player you can use anywhere. His goals have been similar to his profile, snipes off the rush and shots from his off side, but the playmaking element of his game shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s been setting up more shots, which is integral to being on Crosby’s line with how much they play off the cycle.

Where he tops out at will be interesting. There’s some flukiness to how a player just “figured it out” and became a top-line player at 28, but he’s not riding a high percentage wave of good shooting luck like a lot of players do. He’s still a volume shooter and not someone who finishes at a high clip, which works both for and against him because his value isn’t going to be reliant on his point total. There’s just the question of whether or not he can sustain this level of play over 82 games. The fact that he did so much of this with Crosby on the shelf should give you some confidence that he can.

There are a few others around the league having surprising seasons. Andrew Mangiapane is still among the league leaders in goals and Tage Thompson is finally showing some of the goal-scoring touch that got him drafted so high, Ivan Barbashev in St. Louis is on-pace to have his best NHL season at 26. It’s always fun to see players break the mold and have a great year out of the blue. It’s becoming more rare now with the league getting younger and players entering their primes at an earlier age than we previously thought. Still, there’s always a guy or two who has the Midas touch for a couple months and turns a hot streak into a career season. Foligno, Hartman and Rodrigues being the most prominent examples this year.

Data courtesy of Allthreezones.com

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY HOCKEY POINTS- 2021-22 – NEW SEASON!

Scott Cullen — Wed, 22 Sep 2021 20:47:12 +0000

Welcome to a new season of 20 Fantasy Points on McKeen’s Hockey. Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

One thing to remember when looking at trends is that they are not intended to be guarantees of future performance. They might provide indicators or probabilities but, sometimes, in a league with more than 700 players, there are exceptions, players that can ride a wave of high percentages.

So here are some stats to consider as we approach the 2021-2022 season, with much more to come leading up to the drop of the puck and throughout the NHL season.

#1 Goal scoring has increased in recent years but was down a little bit last season. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, goals per team per game hovered around 2.98 goals per game. Last season, it was down to just under 2.90 goals per game. That’s not a dramatic decline and the consistency of the range should make it a little more manageable for forecasting purposes. As recently as 2017-2018, the goals per team per game average was 2.72, so we are operating in a world with a little more offense.

#2 One of the paths to finding fantasy hockey value is to go against public perception and one of the factors in public perception, both good and bad, is playoff performance. For that reason, there is probably value to be found in the likes of Pittsburgh goaltender Tristan Jarry after he posted a .888 save percentage in a six-game first-round loss to the Islanders. Similarly, New Jersey winger Tomas Tatar was a healthy scratch for the Montreal Canadiens for most of their run to the Stanley Cup Final, which overshadows that Tatar was comfortably the Habs’ top scorer over the past three seasons. Even Toronto’s Mitch Marner, to some degree, could provide some value here. His past two playoff performances have been entirely forgettable and yet his 228 points in the past three seasons ranks eighth and his 1.16 points per game in that time ranks 10^th.

#3 A common, and more recent way to find value is seeking out players due for regression when it comes to on-ice shooting percentage. This works in both directions but players that have really high on-ice shooting percentages are likely to decline and those that are really low tend to get a bit of a boost. It is not a universal truth but a tendency. Some players who benefited from a high on-ice shooting percentage last season include Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno (15.1 OisH%), Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson (13.8 OiSH%), Seattle’s Jared McCann (13.6 OiSH% with PIttsburgh), Detroit’s Jakub Vrana (13.5 OiSH%), Vegas’ Chandler Stephenson (13.0 OiSH%), and Washington’s Evgeny Kuznetsov (12.9 OiSH%). This does not mean that those players can’t be productive this season, but they are not likely to duplicate those high percentages.

#4 A sustainable on-ice shooting percentage, over a three-year span, ranges between 11 and 12 percent, which is still higher than the vast majority of players can expect. From that group above, Kuznetsov (11.9%), Vrana (11.5%), and Pettersson (11.4%) have had high on-ice shooting percentages more consistently in the past three seasons.

DALLAS, TX - FEBRUARY 23: Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen (4) handles the puck at the blue line during the game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Dallas Stars on February 23, 2019 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX. (Photo by Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire)

#5 On the low end of the on-ice shooting percentage spectrum, there are always going to be grinders who don’t necessarily fall into the fantasy discussion that have very low on-ice shooting percentages. Some players that had low on-ice shooting percentages last season that could reasonably expect better in 2021-2022 include: Detroit’s Dylan Larkin (4.9%), the Islanders’ Kyle Palmieri (5.3%), Nashville’s Filip Forsberg (5.5%), and Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen (5.6%).

#6 Similarly, individual players tend to fall within a reasonable range when it comes to their own shooting percentage. Those that are inflated are likely to come down and the player who is generating shots but not getting goals is likely to have their shooting percentage improve. Again, this is not a hard and fast rule – because Rickard Rakell exists – but a tendency. Some players that had unusually lofty shooting percentages last season include:

Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno (27.5%), whose previous high in a season of at least 20 games, was 13.4%.

St. Louis’ Brandon Saad (22.1% with Colorado), whose career shooting percentage going into last season was 11.4%.

Vegas’ Mark Stone (21.4%) and Stone has been a high-percentage finisher for his career (15.8%) but that’s not 21.4% either.

Washington’s T.J. Oshie (20.8%) which is unsustainably high, but Oshie has been scoring on 17.9% of his shots in six seasons with the Capitals, making hay on that power play, so while he may not score on such a high percentage again, the drop off may not be so dramatic in Oshie’s case.

Seattle’s Alex Wennberg (20.7%) was a notorious pass-first playmaker for his entire career, scoring on 8.0% of his shots prior to last season before he turned sniper with the Florida Panthers. It would be surprising if his shooting percentage did not fall by a significant amount this season.

Chicago’s Alex DeBrincat (20.6%) had a career-low shooting percentage of 8.7% in 2019-2020, so he seemed like a good bet for a bounce-back season in 2021, but that was a dramatic swing.

#7 Whose high shooting percentages can be trusted? In the past three seasons, the shooting percentage leaders (all situations, min. 1000 minutes) are:

Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (20.1%)

Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point (19.2%)

Washington’s T.J. Oshie (19.0%)

Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos (18.2%)

Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele (17.8%)

Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson (17.6%)

#8 On the other hand, some players that uncharacteristically low shooting percentages during the 2021 season:

Montreal’s Jonathan Drouin (2.6%) had a career shooting percentage of 9.7% going into last season.

Buffalo’s Jack Eichel (3.3%) scored on a career-high 15.9% of his shots in 2019-2020 but regression came for him in a big way last season and now he remains in a holding pattern, unsure for which team he will play his next game.

Boston’s Jake DeBrusk (5.4%) had scored on 13.5% of his shots in his first three NHL seasons before his shooting percentage crashed last season.

St. Louis’ Vladimir Tarasenko (6.2%) had never finished an NHL season with a shooting percentage lower than 10.7% prior to last season. Maybe his ongoing shoulder issues played into it, or maybe he was just snakebit, but he finished with just four goals in 24 games.

Buffalo’s Jeff Skinner (6.3%) has had fluctuating shooting percentages throughout his career but after scoring 40 goals on a career-high 14.9% shooting percentage in 2018-2019, he has dropped off dramatically. Can he get it back?

#9 Opportunity is always a driver of fantasy hockey value. Some forwards looking at significant new roles with new teams include Conor Garland, Vancouver; Blake Coleman, Calgary; Zach Hyman, Edmonton; Viktor Arvidsson, Los Angeles; Brandon Saad, St. Louis; Nick Ritchie, Toronto.

#10 On defense, the move to a new team might result in more power play time but the opportunity to play with a different supporting cast can make a difference, too. Here are some defenders that could be looking at beneficial new situations: Ryan Ellis, Philadelphia; Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Vancouer; Vince Dunn, Seattle; Alex Goligoski, Minnesota; Adam Boqvist, Columbus; Shayne Gostisbehere, Arizona. Probably Tony DeAngelo in Carolina, too.

#11 Considering how team-dependent goaltending production tends to be, goaltenders that switch teams might have the greatest change in their fantasy value. Think of how much more appealing Darcy Kuemper is in Colorado than if he had stayed in Arizona. Same for Linus Ullmark in Boston. At the lower end of the goaltender spectrum, Adin Hill could benefit from the move from Arizona to San Jose, at least in terms of having an opportunity to play more.

#12 The opposite side of that coin is the goaltenders that moved to teams that are not likely to be as strong as the team they left and that will put a dent into their fantasy value. Philipp Grubauer moving from Colorado to Seattle and Marc-Andre Fleury going from Vegas to Chicago are a couple of notable examples. Alex Nedeljkovic likely faces a worse team in front of him in Detroit, after playing in Carolina, but also has a likelihood of handling a starter’s role for a full season, so there are trade-offs to consider.

ANAHEIM, CA - MARCH 10: Anaheim Ducks Left Wing Trevor Zegras (46) in action during a game against the Los Angeles Kings played on March 10, 2021 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

#13 The NHL has rules governing rookie eligibility and one of the main facets is that players can not have played 26 or more games in a previous NHL season. Here are some players that are officially rookies that flashed some potential in 2021: Trevor Zegras, Anaheim; Jamie Drysdale, Anaheim; Tanner Jeannot, Nashville; Wade Allison, Philadephia; Shane Pinto, Ottawa; Cole Caufield, Montreal, and Evan Bouchard, Edmonton.

#14 Connor McDavid scored 105 points in 56 games to lead the league last season. Pro-rated over an 82-game season, Leon Draisaitl and Brad Marchand would have hit 100 points last season, too. How many players could score 100 points in an 82-game 2021-2022 season? Since 2015-2016, there have been 13 100-point seasons recorded in the NHL. McDavid has four, Nikita Kucherov, Patrick Kane and Draisaitl have two, while Marchand, Claude Giroux, and Sidney Crosby each have one.

#15 Can anyone catch McDavid for the scoring title this season? It won’t be easy, since a pro-rated total at last season’s scoring rate (1.88 points per game) would give McDavid 154 points. The closest contenders would seem to be Kucherov, who scored 128 points (1.56 points per game) in 2018-2019, Draisaitl, who tallied 110 points (1.55 points per game) in 2019-2020, and perhaps Artemi Panarin, who has back-to-back seasons with 1.38 points per game for the New York Rangers.

#16 One measure of interest when it comes to forecasting player point totals is individual point production (IPP) because it shows the percentage of points that a player is involved in relative to the number of goals for which they are on the ice. Some players have more of the offense run through them so, naturally, their percentages will be higher, but an IPP that is atypically high is not likely to be duplicated. Some players coming off a season with a high all-situations IPP include Toronto’s Jason Spezza (90.9%, Minnesota’s Mats Zuccarello (87.5%), N.Y. Rangers’ Artemi Panarin (84.1%), Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (84.0%), St. Louis’ David Perron (82.9%), and San Jose’s Tomas Hertl (82.7%).

#17 On the other hand, some players who might expect an IPP boost this season compared to last include: St. Louis’ Robert Thomas (46.2%), Nashville’s Matt Duchene (46.4%), N.Y. Rangers’ Chris Kreider (46.2%), Nashville’s Ryan Johansen (47.8%), and Colorado’s J.T. Compher (48.7%)

VANCOUVER, BC - MARCH 06: Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) waits for a face-off during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on March 6, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#18 While McDavid running away with the points race was amazing, Auston Matthews had a comfortable margin in the race for the Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s leading goal scorer, tucking in 41 goals, eight more than McDavid, who was in second place. Who are Matthews’ top challengers? Well, naturally McDavid should be considered and it would be insulting not to include Alex Ovechkin, who has led the league in goals nine times, but outside of that group, maybe Boston’s David Pastrnak, who scored 48 goals in 2019-2020 or, conceivably, Chicago’s Patrick Kane or Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov, who are two of six players to have multiple 40-goal seasons since 2015-2016 (the others being Matthews, McDavid, Draisaitl, and Ovechkin).

#19 The darkhorse candidate could be Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, who has never scored more than 41 goals in a season and is coming off a year in which he managed just 20 goals in 48 games but MacKinnon consistently generates more than four shots on goal per game season after season and if he puts up 350-plus shots in an 82-game season, it is possible that MacKinnon could score 50 goals and that would put him into the mix.

#20 Shot volume is an important indicator when it comes to goals. Since 2015-2016, there has been one season in which a player scored 30 goals and did not have more than two shots on goal per game – New Jersey’s Adam Henrique, in 2015-2016, scored 30 goals on just 1.86 shots per game. In that time, there is only one player to have multiple 30 goal seasons while generating fewer than 2.5 shots on goal per game and that is Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – A Look Back at the 2020-21 Season

Scott Cullen — Thu, 20 May 2021 19:33:41 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, a look back at the 2021 season and some of the underlying and sometimes just odd numbers for players during the 56-game season.

#1 Boston Bruins left winger Brad Marchand finished third in scoring with 69 points. He was a long way from first but, following offseason sports hernia surgery, Marchand’s longest streak without registering a point was two games, which happened twice. Since 2016-2017, Marchand ranks third in the NHL with 426 points, behind the two players that he was behind in this year’s scoring race, the Edmonton Oilers duo of Connor McDavid (526) and Leon Draisaitl (469). (Yes, that means that McDavid has 100 points more than any non-teammate over the past five seasons.)

#2 Although he had to take a leave of absence from the New York Rangers during the season, left winger Artemi Panarin ended up with 58 points in 42 games this season. Over the past two seasons, his first two with the Blueshirts, Panarin is averaging 1.38 points per game, which ranks third behind Connor McDavid (1.68) and Leon Draisaitl (1.53).

DENVER, CO - FEBRUARY 22: Vegas Golden Knights right wing Mark Stone (61) skates during a game between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado on February 22, 2021. The Colorado Avalanche wore retro-themed uniforms with logos of the Quebec Nordiques. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

#3 Vegas Golden Knights captain Mark Stone tallied 61 points, the sixth time in the past seven seasons that he has scored at least 60 points, and it was not a standard path to get there. In a shortened season, Stone needed a career-high 1.11 points per game to cross that threshold and he did it with a career-low 1.78 shots on goal per game. He scored on a career-high 21.4% of his shots and had a career-high on-ice shooting percentage of 12.1%.

#4 One of the biggest bounce-back seasons was authored by Chicago Blackhawks winger Alex DeBrincat, who tallied 32 goals and 56 points in 52 games after scoring 18 goals and 45 points in 70 games in 2019-2020. Hockey can be fickle, though. Last season, DeBrincat had 2.96 shots on goal per game and it improved this season to 2.98 shots on goal per game. Okay, that minor nudge does not explain the increase in goal scoring. Last season, DeBrincat scored on 8.7% of his shots. This season, he scored on 20.6%. He also played almost three minutes more per game compared to last season but it’s worth noting that DeBrincat had a higher shot and expected goal rate in all situations in the 2019-2020 season than he did in 2021 but sometimes the puck won’t go in the net. Other times, a sniper like DeBrincat can’t miss.

#5 Minnesota Wild rookie sensations Kirill Kaprizov had an outstanding rookie season, but it was a tale of two rookie seasons in one. Coming out of a KHL season in which he tallied 62 points in 57 games, a standard NHL equivalency would have pegged Kaprizov for approximately 45 points in a 56-game season. He exceeded those numbers, finishing with 51 points (27 G, 24 A) in 55 games. The rookie was putting up points immediately but was not generating shots. In his first 17 NHL games, Kaprizov contributed 16 points and 28 shots on goal (1.65 shots per game). In the next 38 games, he scored 35 points, including 22 goals, and generated 129 shots on goal (3.39 per game), more than doubling his shot rate.

#6 32-year-old St. Louis Blues winger David Perron had the first point-per-game season of career, scoring 58 points in 56 games. He averaged 18:33 of ice time per game, the second highest per-game average of his career.

#7 Looking to re-establish his value after a down season in Toronto, Edmonton’s Tyson Barrie decided that signing in Edmonton would work for him, and he was right. Barrie paced all defensemen with 48 points. Keep in mind that Barrie is going to be an unrestricted free agent in the offseason and that Connor McDavid recorded a point on 34 of the 48 goals (70.8%) which Barrie had a point. In Barrie’s 2017-2018 season, when he tallied a career-high 57 points for Colorado, Nathan MacKinnon had a point on 30 of those 57 goals (52.6%).

#8 36-year-old Dallas Stars center Joe Pavelski had a bounce-back campaign after a tough start in Dallas in 2019-2020. He finished with 51 points (25 G, 26 A), scoring 13 of his 25 goals on the power play. Since 2013-2014, Pavelski has 25 goals scored via deflections. Winnipeg Jets captain Blake Wheeler has the second most goals on deflections in that time with 16.

#9 There were five defensemen that had at least 15 points this season that recorded more than half of their points on the power play. Florida’s Keith Yandle (66.7%), Arizona’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson (58.3%), Montreal’s Shea Weber (57.9%), Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman (53.3%), and Los Angeles’ Drew Doughty (52.9%).

#10 On the other end of the spectrum, there were 60 defensemen to put up at least 20 points this season. Those with the lowest percentage of power play points were Toronto’s Justin Holl (0.0%), Toronto’s Jake Muzzin (7.4%), Florida’s MacKenzie Weegar (8.3%), and Nashville’s Mattias Ekholm along with Minnesota’s Jonas Brodin (both 8.7%).

#11 Minnesota Wild left winger Marcus Foligno had a career season, scoring a career-high 26 points in 39 games. Foligno had zero power play points. The other top even-strength scorers without any power play points: Winnipeg’s Mason Appleton (24), Montreal’s Phillip Danault (23), as well as the Rangers’ Filip Chytil (22) and Alexis Lafreniere (21). Minnesota’s Jordan Greenway had 31 even-strength points with one power-play point and Vancouver rookie Nils Hoglander had 26 even-strength points with one power-play point.

#12 There were 389 forwards that played at least 300 5-on-5 minutes this season. The leaders in individual expected goals per 60 minutes were Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher (1.30), Toronto’s Auston Matthews (1.14), Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk (1.02), Minnesota’s Joel Eriksson Ek (1.02), the Islanders’ Anders Lee (1.01), and Carolina’s Nino Niederreiter (1.01). Familiar names for this category but it also shows the difference between an elite finisher like Matthews and others who generate the shots and chances but don’t come close to Matthews’ goal totals.

#13 The forwards with the lowest individual expected goals per 60 minutes were Columbus’ Patrik Laine (0.26), Minnesota’s Victor Rask (0.26), Toronto’s Joe Thornton (0.27), St. Louis’ Tyler Bozak (0.30), and Winnipeg’s Nate Thompson (0.30). Seeing Laine at the very bottom of the list shows just what a disaster this season was for him. A fresh start, with a new coach, can’t come soon enough.

#14 Surprisingly, the most productive player from that early-season trade was Jack Roslovic, who scored a career-high 34 points (12 G, 22 A) in 48 games for Columbus. His ice time went up a couple of minutes per game compared to the 2019-2020 season in Winnipeg. His shot rate (1.77 per game) was a bit of a concern, too, but that appears to be virtually a team-wide issue for the Blue Jackets.

#15 Arizona Coyotes right winger Phil Kessel finished with a flourish and ended up with 20 goals and 43 points; it was the 12^th time in the past 13 seasons that Kessel scored at least 20 goals. He scored on a career-high 17.4% of his shots but he did improve his shot rates as the season progressed. In his first 32 games, Kessel had 20 points and 54 shots on goal (1.69 shots per game) and then scored 23 points with 61 shots on goal (2.54 shots per game) in his last 24 games.

#16 Anaheim Ducks winger Rickard Rakell scored nine goals in 52 goals, finishing with a career-low 6.3% shooting percentage. Over the past three seasons, there are 120 forwards that have recorded at least 400 shots on goal. The forwards from that group with the lowest shooting percentage: Boston’s Taylor Hall (7.7%), Rakell (8.0%), Columbus’ Boone Jenner (8.2%), Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk (8.7%), Dallas’ Tyler Seguin (8.9%), and Arizona’s Clayton Keller (8.9%).

#17 The forwards from that group that have the highest shooting percentages: Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (20.1%), Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point (19.2%), Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos (18.2%), Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele (17.8%), and San Jose’s Tomas Hertl (17.3%).

#18 Florida Panthers left winger Jonathan Huberdeau scored 19 points in the last 13 games to finish the season with 61 points, good for 12^th in league scoring. In the past three seasons Huberdeau ranks seventh among all scorers with 231 points.

#19 Pittsburgh Penguins center Jared McCann rose to the occasion when Evgeni Malkin was injured. McCann returned to the lineup a few days after Malkin was hurt and from March 20 through the end of the regular season, McCann scored 22 points (9 G, 13 A) in 26 games, giving him 32 points in 43 games. Just something to consider if the Penguins consider moving Malkin in the offseason.

#20 Finally, the Detroit Red Wings’ leading scorer this season was defenseman Filip Hronek, who had a modest 26 points in 56 games. Even more remarkable is that 17 of his 26 points were second assists. He had 11 more secondary assists than any other Red Wings player.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

WESTERN DIVISION PREVIEW: VEGAS vs MINNESOTA, COLORADO vs ST. LOUIS – Two Cup Favourites – Is there an Upset in the Cards?

Shayna Goldman — Sat, 15 May 2021 15:12:36 +0000

ST. PAUL, MN - APRIL 05: Colorado Avalanche Center Nathan MacKinnon (29) powers his way in front of the net of Minnesota Wild Goalie Cam Talbot (33) during the first period of an NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche on April 5, 2021, at Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN. (Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

The Western Conference matchups came down the final days of the regular season. Colorado and Vegas jostled for positioning and the Presidents’ Trophy, and the Avalanche winning their final game of the season was the deciding factor for these two series. That win locked them into a Round 1 tilt against the St. Louis Blues, and set Vegas for a meeting against the Minnesota Wild.

The Avalanche and Golden Knights are the obvious favorites after finishing the regular season in the top two seeds. But hockey’s a chaotic game with so many factors to consider with any matchup. So, let’s breakdown what makes these favorites such strong teams and the keys for a Round 1 upset from one of these underdogs.

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Minnesota Wild

This is a really intriguing matchup, because on paper, the Golden Knights have quite a few advantages. They’re a fast-paced team, and a top offensive generator in the league. At 5-on-5, they boast the second-best shot rate for (61.45 attempts over 60), and leading expected goal rate (2.78 expected goals for per 60). Their forward corps is highlighted by the dangerous trio of Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson, and Max Pacioretty (if he’s healthy). Right behind them is the Golden Knights’ former first line in Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith. Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore lead their defense. And behind them, they’ve relied on the tandem of Marc-Andre Fleury and Robin Lehner. Fleury, in particular, has been the difference maker. No goaltender saved more goals than expected than him (19.22) through 36 games.

The Wild, on the other hand, rank 25th in their shots for at just 49.36 attempts per 60, although they’re about league-average in expected goal generation (2.25 per 60). While they’re one of the better teams at limiting quality chances against, their goaltending has trended in the wrong direction as of late.

Vegas, the higher ranked seed, has quite a few advantages. But, there are ways for Minnesota to exploit their opponent and push them out of the first round.

The Golden Knights are still a good defensive team, but they’re not as solid in their own zone as last year. Last season, they were seven percent stronger than league average in their expected goal rate against, and really suppressed attempts in the slot area. This year, they’re still better than average (two percent stronger) as a whole and protect the slot (although to a slightly lesser degree from last season). However, they concede more net-front shots. That’s exactly where the Wild generate a higher percentage of their chances.

The HockeyViz heat maps below help reflect that. On both offensive and defensive zone maps, blue areas show were fewer shots are taken while red represents more offense. The left shows the Golden Knights’ defensive zone, while the right is Minnesota’s offensive end.

Here’s what benefits the Wild: The Golden Knights have allowed the second highest number of rebound shots against at 5-on-5 with 121 according to MoneyPuck.com. Minnesota, on the other hand, are fifth in the league with 115 rebound shots (behind Vegas with 118). So, that rebound control is going to be essential for the Golden Knights because the Wild are quick to jump on those second chance opportunities.

That’s where a player like Joel Eriksson Ek can thrive. At 5-on-5, his quality shots have combined for the highest individual expected goal rate, and a major chunk of those attempts are from rebound shots. Eriksson Ek, along with Marcus Foligno and Jordan Greenway should be able to create problems for Vegas because of the chaos they can create in an area of weakness for their opponent.

PREDICTION: MINNESOTA IN SEVEN

That Eriksson Ek line gives the Golden Knights another matchup to focus in on, in addition to Kirill Kaprizov’s line which will rightfully be at the forefront of the Wild’s offense.

Colorado Avalanche vs. St. Louis Blues

The series between the Avalanche is one of the more uneven matchups in Round 1. Yes, the Blues have trended in the right direction on their way to this playoff matchup, and yes, they did win recently and much of that team’s core is still intact. But the Avalanche are one of the best teams in the league for a reason.

At 5-on-5, no one controls play better than Colorado. Their 60.7 percent expected goals rate is about five percent better than the next best team. Up front, they’re led by one of the top players in the league in Nathan MacKinnon, who is one third of an elite first line combination with Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog. In 500-plus 5-on-5 minutes this year, the Avalanche have controlled almost 68 percent of the shot share with them on the ice and have a 66 percent expected goals rate. That’s among the league’s best once again this season.

Normally, St. Louis could just rely on Ryan O’Reilly and their top line to lead the way. In this series, that line likely goes up against MacKinnon as much as possible, and it’s not easy to drive play away from that trio. So, if most of O’Reilly’s time is absorbed by that, instead of creating offense, they’re going to need their depth to step up. Colorado, unsurprisingly, has the edge; they once were a top-heavy team but have addressed that with depth additions to round out their forward group.

Getting past MacKinnon and the Avalanche’s offense is one task. Then there’s their blue line with three Norris-caliber defenders in Cale Makar, Devon Toews, and Sam Girard. Any players attempting to breakthrough will have to fight a defense that’s 27 percent stronger than league-average in limiting expected goal against, and don’t allow much offense to be created at all in the home plate area in front of the crease.

Even when Colorado predictably takes the lead at points in this series, they’re still dangerous. Score effects generally show that a team in the lead can sit back on their heels, lessening their offense in an attempt to go into a defensive ‘shell.’ And on the other side, those trailing can often pick up their offensive attack. But the Avalanche often don’t let up even when they’re ahead in games. They’re defensively sharp and pile on offense.

For the Blues to have a legitimate shot, it could come down to goaltending which can be the biggest difference maker in a series. For St. Louis, that means relying on Jordan Binnington to be their x-factor.

Through 42 games this season, Binnington saved 2.38 goals more than expected and and about 90.96 percent of the shots he faced in all situations. What’s pushed him more than years past is that he’s playing behind a Blues team that’s allowed their highest rate of shots and expected goals against at 5-on-5 since he’s taken over as the starter. But, he’s a key reason why the Blues are even in this position right now. Through April and May, he elevated his game to save 92 percent of the shots he faced and save 7.28 more goals than expected. To maintain that level of play, he can’t get rattled if and when the team falls behind, and there’s a very likely chance of that happening against this Avalanche team. And he’s still going to need support from the team in front of him because he can’t do it on his own. But the Blues’ best bet of making it to Round 1 relies on him being a sense of stability in net.

PREDICTION - COLORADO IN FIVE

Data via Evolving-Hockey.com and HockeyViz.com