Mario Ferraro – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – SAN JOSE SHARKS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Mon, 13 Oct 2025 17:51:28 +0000

CALGARY, AB - FEBRUARY 23: San Jose Sharks Center William Smith (2) skates with the puck during the first period of an NHL game between the Calgary Flames and the San Jose Sharks on February 23, 2025, at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB. (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire)

The Sharks missed the playoffs for a sixth consecutive season in 2024-2025. They improved by five points over the previous season, but that still left them with 52 points (20-50-12), the lowest total in the league by nine points. The Sharks finished 31st in Corsi percentage (45.6) and 31st in expected goals percentage (just under 44 percent), so it’s no surprise that they were at the bottom of the standings, but it also shows that they are still trying to climb out of a big hole. The Sharks power play struggled, too, ranking 28th with 5.15 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. Same for the penalty killing, which ranked 28th with 9.10 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play. On top of all of those struggles, the Sharks’ goaltending was subpar, too, especially once they traded Mackenzie Blackwood to Colorado. Alexandar Georgiev and Vitek Vanecek struggled. Yaroslav Askarov was the best of the remaining options, but he battled injuries and played in just 13 games, so this all combined to form the worst team in the NHL last season.

What’s Changed?

Desperate to add more talent to the supporting cast around 2024 No. 1 overall pick Macklin Celebrini, the Sharks signed free agent forwards Jeff Skinner from the Edmonton Oilers and Adam Gaudette from the Ottawa Senators while also trading to acquire Philipp Kurashev from the Chicago Blackhawks and enforcer Ryan Reaves from the Toronto Maple Leafs. On the blueline, the Sharks bought out Marc-Edouard Vlasic, so this will be the first time since 2005-2006 that he has not been part of the mix on the San Jose blueline. The Sharks traded for Nick Leddy from the St. Louis Blues, Vincent Desharnais from the Pittsburgh Penguins and signed free agents Dmitry Orlov from the Carolina Hurricanes and John Klingberg from the Edmonton Oilers. San Jose also aimed to shore up its goaltending by acquiring Alex Nedeljkovic from the Penguins to share the crease with Askarov.

What would success look like?

While the Sharks should be better than they were last season, it is such a long climb to get to the playoffs that it is not a reasonable expectation for this season. The main focus is to have the young core – Celebrini, Will Smith, William Eklund, Askarov – continue to develop into frontline NHL players. The Sharks have 10 established NHLers that will be unrestricted free agents next summer, so a main objective should be making them as productive as possible so that they can net the best possible return before the trade deadline. The Sharks can improve in virtually every facet of the game, so that should absolutely be an objective and if it means that the team finishes with 70 points and is still miles away from a playoff spot, but has improved by nearly 20 points, that would have to be considered a successful season.

What could go wrong?

Given their current position, it’s hard for anything to go too wrong for the Sharks. Of course, keeping Celebrini, Smith, Eklund, and Askarov healthy is important, but the team not improving in the standings would still lead to another high draft pick and if they were to land likely No. 1 pick Gavin McKenna, that’s not really a problem. If the Sharks are going to miss the playoffs, and that is the most likely outcome, then they should at least continue to build towards a more promising future and that includes having veterans that they can deal for more assets at the trade deadline.

Top Breakout Candidate

While there are some teams that have very few young players in position to have breakout seasons, the Sharks are in the opposite position. Smith, Eklund, and Askarov are all outstanding candidates to further their development this season, but Macklin Celebrini has to be the top breakout candidate because he was so impressive as an 18-year-old rookie, with a well-rounded game, that he has the potential to be a star and maybe as soon as this season.

FORWARDS

Macklin Celebrini

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	28	46	74	0.96

The first pick in the 2024 Draft did not disappoint in his rookie season. That’s not to suggest that there isn’t room to improve, but he was 18 years old and finished the season with 31 points (12 G, 19 A) and 114 shots on goal in his last 33 games. On a team like the Sharks, that finished nine points behind the 31st place Chicago Blackhawks, with a goal differential that was 35 worse than Chicago, Celebrini had relatively strong possession numbers. The Sharks controlled 48.7 percent of shot attempts and 47.1 percent of expected goals with Celebrini on the ice during five-on-five play. Finishing with 63 points (28 G, 35 A) in 70 games, Celebrini’s 0.90 points per game ranked ninth and his 3.37 shots on goal per game ranked fourth among rookies since 2000-2001. Celebrini plays such a solid and reliable game already, that it’s easy to get excited about his potential. If the Sharks can build up the talent around him, he could turn into an elite player soon. His high shot rate is an encouraging sign that his offensive production is sustainable and, as he grows, he will likely improve the quality of his chances and the rate at which he finishes. For his second season, it’s reasonable to expect 25-30 goals and 70-75 points from the Sharks’ franchise player.

Tyler Toffoli

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	28	27	55	0.70

A two-time Stanley Cup winner who was brought in to be a good influence on the young Sharks, Toffoli showed that he can still play at a high level, hitting the 30-goal plateau for the third straight season. Over the past three seasons, Toffoli has accumulated 70 goals at even strength, which ranks 30th in the league in that time. His quick release allows him to score from distance and can sometimes take a relatively harmless situation and turn it into a goal with a snap of his wrists. He’s not particularly fleet afoot but has excellent instincts that help to get him where he needs to be on time. He’s also a reliable two-way player and that sets a good example for his teammates. That all-around game has helped Toffoli be a consistently strong play driver throughout his career and, even on a Sharks team that was getting buried last season, the Sharks were outshooting opponents when Toffoli was on the ice. The Sharks attempted to improve their roster in the offseason, which should ensure that Toffoli remains productive during the 2025-2026 season. Toffoli’s most common linemates last season were Macklin Celebrini and William Eklund, and it seems likely that trio will ride together again this season. Toffoli should be expected to score 25-30 goals on the way to 55 points.

Will Smith

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	25	34	59	0.73

The fourth pick in the 2023 Draft, Smith was brought along slowly at the start of last season, playing limited minutes and getting healthy scratched as part of a plan to ease him into the National Hockey League. He managed a modest four points (2 G, 2 A) while playing in 18 of San Jose’s first 23 games. Smith started to show some flashes that kept him in the lineup and increased his ice time. Down the stretch, he produced 30 points (12 G, 18 A) in his last 34 games. Smith is a creative player, and once his confidence started to pick up, he was a consistently dangerous player. When Smith started to find his stride, he displayed a quick release on his shot, that allowed him to score off the rush, as well as terrific vision when it came to setting up his linemates. He had a fluidity in his movement and creativity to his game that suggested he was only scratching the surface last season. The question for the Sharks is whether they will move Smith to center, which was his position coming up, but he spent more of his rookie season skating on right wing. Smith only won 36.5 percent of his faceoffs as a rookie, so there is obviously room for improvement, but as he gets more comfortable in the NHL, the Sharks are probably a more dangerous team with Celebrini and Smith running in the top two center spots. Expect continued progress from Smith in his second season, with 20-25 goals and 50-55 points.

William Eklund

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	20	41	61	0.77

The seventh pick in the 2021 Draft, Eklund has made steady progress in his first couple of NHL seasons. After scoring 45 points (16 G, 29 A) in his first full season in 2023-2024, Eklund jumped to 58 points (17 G, 41 A) in his second season. He has good instincts and puts himself in good positions to attack, particularly in transition. Eklund thrives in open space and even though he is not physically imposing, he’s not shy about going to the net when the game slows to a more grinding style. Eklund has a quick release on his shot that he could still use more often, and he does like to unleash one-timers on the power play, but he is also a creator for his linemates, using his speed to put pressure on the defence. When he plays with the likes of Macklin Celebrini and Tyler Toffoli, his most common linemates last season, that makes Eklund a valuable contributor because those guys make the most of the opportunities that he creates. Eklund’s two-way game has also proven to be quite solid early in his NHL career. Among Sharks forwards, he had the second-lowest Corsi against and expected goals against per 60 minutes during five-on-five play. That gives him a solid foundation and Eklund should continue to progress in his third full NHL season, with 20 goals and 60 points looking like fair benchmarks in 2025-2026.

Alexander Wennberg

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	11	23	34	0.44

An excellent defensive center, Wennberg shows, every once in a while, that he has high-end puck skills that could make one wonder if he could fit higher on the depth chart. He’s probably not enough of a shooter to make that happen over the long haul, as he only had 82 shots on goal in 77 games last season, but Wennberg held his own while averaging a career-high 18:51 of ice time for a frequently overmatched Sharks team in 2024-2025. His most common linemates were Tyler Toffoli and William Eklund, but Luke Kunin, Fabian Zetterlund, and Will Smith each played more than 200 five-on-five minutes with Wennberg, too. For a player who ends up handling checking center responsibilities, Wennberg is not great on faceoffs. He won 47.5 percent of his draws in 2024-2025, his best mark since 2020-2021. His reluctance to shoot the puck puts a limit on how much Wennberg can produce offensively, but his puck skills and ability to distribute at least make him a solid complementary player and in San Jose, he’s possibly a player who gets more ice time because he has an established level of NHL competence that not every forward on the Sharks roster can claim. In addition to providing sound defensive play, Wennberg ought to contribute around a dozen goals and 35 points during the 2025-2026 season.

Jeff Skinner

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	21	21	42	0.54

The 33-year-old winger finally got a taste of playoff action with the Edmonton Oilers last season after skating in 1,078 regular season games, though he was hardly a major factor, only dressing for a handful of postseason contests. Skinner’s role diminished relatively early in the season, and he did pick up the pace a bit in the final month but, overall, he was not what the Oilers were looking for. Skinner is a finesse winger who consistently drives play, but he’s not exactly Bob Gainey or Jere Lehtinen when he doesn’t have the puck and that lack of defensive commitment can threaten his spot in the lineup if he’s not scoring at a high level. To be fair to Skinner, even though he had the highest expected goals against per 60 minutes among Oilers forwards that played at least 200 five-on-five minutes, the Oilers did outscore opponents 33-3 2 with Skinner on the ice in those situations. There’s probably some good fortune at work there. In San Jose, Skinner should be a reliable veteran presence who brings legitimate skill to the table. Signed to a one-year deal, Skinner is also a prime candidate to be traded if the Sharks are, as expected, not in the playoff hunt. It would seem highly unlikely that he would surpass 30 goals again, something that he has done six times in his career, but 20-25 goals and 45 points seems like a fair expectation for him during the 2025-2026 season.

Philipp Kurashev

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	12	18	30	0.39

After a breakout season in 2023-2024, when he scored 54 points (18 G, 36 A) for the Chicago Blackhawks, Kurashev plummeted to just 14 points (7 G, 7 A) last season. He did miss 31 games, but his ice time was also cut drastically, from more than 19 minutes per game to 13:43 per game. He struggled right from the start last season, scoring five points (3 G, 2 A) in his first 30 games, and his ice time was cut significantly in the second half of the season. Kurashev performed a little better, but it was too little, too late to try and salvage the season. Kurashev seems like a worthwhile risk for the Sharks to take, in the hopes that he can recapture his 2023-2024 form, but he is also going to depend on his linemates to lift his play to a certain level because while he has good hockey sense and knows where to be on the ice, he’s not an especially dynamic player who creates a lot on his own. If he can maintain a spot in San Jose’s middle six. Kurashev should bounce back to some degree from last season, scoring double digit goals and maybe 30 points.

Carl Grundstrom

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
66	10	10	20	0.30

Being a low-end fantasy forward on the Sharks likely means that you’re not going to be involved in too many fantasy leagues, and that may well be the case with Grundstrom, who managed nine points (3 G, 6 A) in 56 games last season while scoring on just 3.4 percent of his shots on goal. At the same time, there is an argument to be made that Grundstrom should play more than he did last season. Among Sharks forwards to play at least 200 minutes at five-on-five, Grundstrom had the best expected goals percentage at just under 50 percent. That occurred while his four most common linemates were Ty Dellandrea, Nico Sturm, Barclay Goodrow, and Luke Kunin, so there is the possibility that if Grundstrom were to find a regular spot with more quality linemates, he just might have a greater impact. Grundstrom has never played more than 57 games in an NHL season, so just staying healthy and in the lineup should be the first priority, but if he manages to play even 65 games, 10 goals and 20 points should be within his grasp. Grundstrom could have more value for leagues that reward hits because he had 172 in 56 games while playing less than 10 minutes per game last season, so 200-plus hits over a full season should not be out of the question.

Adam Gaudette

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	14	11	25	0.31

After spending most of the 2023-2024 season in the American Hockey League, where he scored 44 goals in 67 games for Springfield, Gaudette returned to the NHL last season with the Ottawa Senators, and he made his mark by scoring 19 goals in 81 games. Among players that played at least 200 five-on-five minutes, Gaudette ranked fifth in the entire league with 1.34 goals per 60 minutes, trailing only Tage Thompson, Alex Ovechkin, Morgan Geekie, and Cole Caufield. While it’s encouraging that Gaudette could contribute offensively despite his limited role in Ottawa, it needs to be noted that he scored on 21.1 percent of his shots on goal and, prior to last season, he had a shooting percentage of 9.0 percent in 220 NHL games so, in all likelihood, regression is coming. Gaudette won more than 50 percent of his faceoffs last season and his ability to play center and wing does give him a better chance to secure regular playing time with the Sharks. He’s probably not going to climb too high on the depth chart for any sustained period of time, but he can probably move around the bottom six a little bit. A fair expectation for Gaudette would see him scoring double digit goals and 20-25 points, which is generally not going to get fantasy managers excited, but in short bursts he might generate some interest.

DEFENCE

John Klingberg

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	6	24	30	0.42

When Klingberg left for hip surgery after playing just 14 games for the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2023-2024, it looked like his NHL career may be finished. His mobility was obviously compromised. His defensive play had declined rather precipitously from his best days in Dallas and a 32-year-old defenceman coming off hip surgery was hardly the most appealing option. To Klingberg’s credit, he made it back to the NHL with the Edmonton Oilers and played in 11 games down the stretch. He was better than in his Toronto stint but was still shaky defensively. What made Klingberg more appealing is that during Edmonton’s playoff run, Klingberg ranked third in Corsi percentage (49.7) and fourth in expected goals percentage (48.8). That hardly looks like a standout defender, but it might be an indication that he can be competent defensively and that would be enough because, one of Klingberg’s more appealing traits is that he can run the point on a power play and the Sharks sorely need someone who can do that for them. During his time with the Dallas Stars, Klingberg recorded 148 power play points out of his 374 total points (71 G, 303 A) in 552 games. In the three years since, he has bounced around and not really had a consistent power play role, but that opportunity should be there for Klingberg in San Jose. If he plays 67 games in 2025-2026, Klingberg should be able to contribute 30 points. There’s a chance that it works out even better than that, with more of an impact on the power play, but for a player who has played 25 regular-season games in the past two seasons, it’s still worth exercising some caution when it comes to forecasting his point projection.

Mario Ferraro

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	4	16	20	0.25

With the Sharks moving on from Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Ferraro is now the longest tenured Sharks defender, having completed six seasons in teal. He has averaged more than 21 minutes of ice time in the past five seasons and has surpassed 120 hits and 120 blocked shots in each of the past four seasons. While he plays a significant role in San Jose, Ferraro is not much of an offensive contributor. He finished last season with a modest 17 points (5 G, 12 A), a total that he has exceeded only once in his six NHL seasons, and he has five career power play points, four of which came in his second season, 2020-2021. Ferraro partnered primarily with Timothy Liljegren last season and they were relatively successful, with the Sharks controlling 49.6 percent of the expected goals share during five-on-five play with that tandem on the ice, but neither one is particularly adept at creating offensive chances, so that puts a damper on any expectations for Ferraro to suddenly emerge as a point producer on the San Jose blueline. His blocked shots and hit totals can make Ferraro more appealing for fantasy purposes, but his lack of scoring does make that more challenging. The most reasonable expectation is that Ferraro will chip in 15-20 points while going to battle defensively, which is not overly appealing for fantasy hockey managers.

Dmitry Orlov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	6	24	30	0.38

A veteran defenceman who is solid at both ends of the rink, Orlov has typically not played a lot on the power play, but that might change in San Jose. His first priority is going to be providing defensive stability at even strength. Across the past three seasons, there are 128 defencemen that have played at least 3,000 five-on-five minutes, and Orlov ranked sixth in Corsi percentage (57.6) and seventh in expected goals percentage (55.6), so he is used to the puck moving in the right direction when he is on the ice. That will be harder in San Jose, but Orlov’s reliability should help in that regard. He has exceeded 30 points four times in his NHL career, peaking at 36 points when he split the 2022-2023 season between the Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins. There is some offensive upside that comes with being able to move the puck, even if he is not usually logging big power play minutes. Orlov has also recorded more than 100 hits in nine of the past 10 seasons, with the only exception being the shortened 2020-2021 season. In San Jose, Orlov should play more than 20 minutes per game and that should allow him to contribute half a dozen goals and 25-30 points, which makes him rather fringy in terms of standard fantasy value.

Timothy Liljegren

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	6	17	23

Often shoved to the background when he was with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Liljegren stepped into a regular role with the Sharks, playing more than 19 minutes per game, and delivered solid two-way play, finishing with the best expected goals percentage (49.4) among Sharks defenders to play at least 200 five-on-five minutes. Liljegren is a strong skater who has decent puck skills, so there could be some offensive upside, but he’s also 26 years old and it’s getting a little late to suddenly develop a more productive scoring game. Even if that’s the case, if Liljegren can maintain a steady top four role on San Jose’s blueline, his point production should improve as the quality of the Sharks lineup improves. Liljegren does not play an especially physical game, and he finished with 64 hits in 67 games last season, but he does block shots. In the past two seasons, Liljegren has 227 blocked shots in 123 games, so for that one particular category, he does offer some value for fantasy managers. If Liljegren can stay in the lineup more regularly than he did in Toronto, it would be reasonable to expect him to contribute half a dozen goals and 20-25 points during the 2025-2026 season. If he adds 140 blocked shots, that might give him some value in deeper leagues.

GOAL

Yaroslav Askarov

Hockey fans everywhere were absolutely stunned when the Nashville Predators took their most prized prospect - first round pick goaltender Yaroslav Askarov, who looked ready to hit the NHL full-time - and dealt him to the San Jose Sharks last offseason. Fueled by rumors that the top prospect was uninterested in spending any more time developing in the AHL, Nashville attempted to recoup their loss with a first-round pick demand and sent Askarov to the league's most obviously rebuilding franchise for a fun year of trial by fire.

Where most prospects would have absolutely tanked in that kind of environment, though, Askarov managed to make the most of an abysmal situation - and while he didn't exactly pull the Sharks out of their nosedive, he did manage to string together one of the most impressively passable seasons any rookie goaltender has put up on a team that came dangerously close to missing out on the twenty-win mark by season's end. In his thirteen NHL appearances, he put up seven quality starts and hit almost exactly league average metrics in goals saved above average; for perspective, team starter Alexandar Georgiev only managed to scrape together eleven quality starts, and he had 31 chances to do so. Now, with both his quietly impressive survival skills at the NHL level and truly excellent AHL numbers during his minor league stints, Askarov will almost certainly be handed more control of the crease this year. He'll tandem with former Penguins backup Alex Nedeljkovic, getting more NHL reps as the Sharks try to prevent their rebuild from entering the dreaded Bermuda Triangle that teams like Buffalo and Utah (formerly Arizona) have gotten stuck in for years at a time. It's somewhat risky to hinge a top prospect's development in net on a team very obviously still in retool mode, but Askarov has proven during his appearances in the last few years that he's got some adaptability to his game style and a bit of a goldfish mentality that makes it hard to pinpoint the moment his game will disintegrate during a tough matchup. He makes for an optimistic future in the Bay Area, so long as he doesn't regress this year.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – SAN JOSE SHARKS – Team Preview

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 20:00:54 +0000

_{PARADISE, NV - JUNE 28: Macklin Celebrini of Boston University is drafted by the San Jose Sharks in the first round during the NHL Draft on June 28, 2024 at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Speer/Icon Sportswire)}

On the heels of a spectacularly terrible season, the San Jose Sharks can only go up. San Jose finished with 47 points (19-54-9) and the one thing that they could take from that disaster of a campaign is that they landed the top pick in the draft lottery. The Sharks used that pick on Macklin Celebrini, who was born in Vancouver, but played some of his minor hockey for the San Jose Jr. Sharks. Where did it go wrong for the Sharks in 2023-2024? They ranked 31st in Corsi (42.2%) and dead last in expected goals percentage (40.6%), so they earned their poor results from the start. San Jose’s power play ranked 19th, which was a monumental success compared to other aspects of the game, scoring 7.28 goals per 60 minutes. They allowed 8.97 goals against per 60 minutes while shorthanded, which ranked 28th. The Sharks might not have expected the team to be as bad as it was, but when they came out of the gate going 0-10-1 in the first 11 games, it was pretty clear that it was going to be a long season.

WHAT’S CHANGED? To their credit, the Sharks did not let that awful season go without making major changes. They fired head coach Dave Quinn and replaced him with Ryan Warsofsky. They let winger Filip Zadina and defenceman Calen Addison both go without a qualifying offer. Veteran forwards Mike Hoffman, Alexander Barabanov, and Kevin Labanc were all cast into free agency, and the Sharks traded defenceman Kyle Burroughs to Los Angeles. The most important additions for the Sharks will be having their top picks from the past two drafts, Celebrini and Will Smith, in the lineup. San Jose was also busy re-shaping its forward group. They signed Tyler Toffoli and Alexander Wennberg as free agents, traded for Ty Dellandrea and Carl Grunstrom, plus they claimed Barclay Goodrow on waivers, whether he liked it or not. The Sharks also made a sharp deal to acquire defenceman Jake Walman from Detroit, so they are going to look different than they did last season.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? It would be impossible to imagine this roster going to the playoffs, so success is much more about development. While the Sharks definitely need to be more consistently competitive, the biggest key to this season is the improvement of young players. That’s Celebrini and Smith, but also William Eklund, Fabian Zetterlund, Thomas Bordeleau, Ty Dellandrea, and Henry Thrun. They aren’t all going to hit, but it is imperative that the Sharks put these players in positions to succeed, as best they can, and build something stable for the future.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Since on-ice results are still practically irrelevant for this team, failing to develop their young players would be a giant mistake. It doesn’t look like there is much danger of veterans overtaking the top young players, but it’s also important that players like Celebrini and Smith have legitimately skilled NHL players to skate with, so that they can grow into their roles without getting buried in the defensive zone night after night. The one good thing about being the worst team in hockey, aside from getting the top pick in the draft, is that it can’t get any worse.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Leaving aside the rookies, who could be among the top players on this team right away, the best breakout candidate might be William Eklund, who was the seventh pick in the 2021 Draft. He finished with 45 points last season but that could just be scratching the surface of what he could provide. Eklund finished the season with 15 points in his last 14 games, for a team that was playing out the string, so he could be ready to make something happen this year, especially if he is playing with more skilled linemates than he did in 2023-2024.

FORWARD

Tyler Toffoli

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	27	24	51	0.62

A three-time 30-goal scorer and Stanley Cup champion, the veteran winger continues to play at a high level. Toffoli has scored 67 goals across the past two seasons, including 46 at even strength. His 67 goals are tied for 34th while his 46 even-strength goals is tied for 30th. Among players to play at least 1000 even strength minutes across the past two seasons, Toffoli ranks 22nd. Adding that scoring efficiency ought to be a major help for a Sharks team that was woefully inadequate offensively last season. Toffoli is a consistent shot generator who uses a quick release and an accurate shot to score goals from distance. Toffoli has been a consistent play-driving force throughout his career, with his team controlling 55.6 percent of shot attempts when he has been on the ice for five-on-five play. That might be difficult to match in San Jose, but if Toffoli can help move the puck in the right direction, that will be a big help to San Jose’s top prospects. For a player that is known for his ability to finish around the opposing goal, Toffoli is also a reliable defensive winger. It is likely going to be an uphill fight in San Jose next season, so expectations for Toffoli should land around 25 goals and 50 points, which is down from recent seasons, but he does not have quite the same supporting cast heading into the 2024-2025 season.

William Eklund

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	22	33	55	0.67

The seventh pick in the 2021 Draft, Eklund got to spend a full season with the Sharks and made significant progress, scoring 45 points. He finished the season with a flourish, tallying 15 points in his last 14 games, an encouraging sign even though the Sharks were playing out the string at that point of the season. Eklund has strong offensive instincts, getting in position to score, either via one-timers or simply going to the net for rebounds. It would not be at all surprising to see his repertoire continue to grow as he develops more confidence. The Sharks tried Eklund at centre midway through the season, but he wasn’t scoring and finished the season winning just 31.3 percent of his faceoffs, so that didn’t seem like a long-term solution. He can be a dangerous winger for the Sharks moving forward, potentially even in a top line role. Among the players who are already on the San Jose roster (so not including rookies Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith), Eklund is the most intriguing, with a chance to become a bona fide top line player. For the 2024-2025 season, Eklund should be expected to deliver 20 goals and 50 points but, considering how he finished last season, he might even be able to produce more than that.

Mikael Granlund

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	11	45	56	0.73

A veteran centre who hit the 60-point plateau for the fourth time in his career in 2023-2024, Granlund is much better suited to a complementary role, but on the Sharks, he played a career-high 20:58 and while that led to power play production and higher point totals, the Sharks were also outshot and out-scored with Granlund on the ice. That hardly made him unique in San Jose, but it shows just how much more support was needed. At his best, Granlund is a creative playmaker, who has excellent vision and patience with the puck. While Granlund can play centre, he may just be keeping the position warm until the Sharks decide that their top prospects are ready to handle the responsibilities of playing down the middle of the ice in the National Hockey League. When that time comes, Granlund can shift to the wing and still be the setup man from that position and it probably will help free him up to focus on offensive play, rather than forcing him to handle defensive responsibilities which are not really his strong suit. Granlund is not an eager shooter, so he does not score a lot of goals. It might be fair to expect 10-12 goals in 2024-2025, on the way to Granlund putting up around 55 points.

Fabian Zetterlund

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	21	21	42	0.51

There were not a lot of wins to be found in San Jose last season, but seeing Zetterlund break through to score 24 goals feels like at least a little bit of a win, a young player starting to realize his potential. Zetterlund, 25, is a stocky winger who will use his body to battle along the boards and in front of the net. He has good speed to create chances in transition, but Zetterlund seemed to be most effective at finding soft spots in the defensive zone where he could utilize a one-timer or quick release to find the back of the net. Perhaps Zetterlund should not have been playing 19 minutes per game at this stage of his career, particularly because his defensive play is not yet strong enough to handle that responsibility, but that experience should serve him well as the rest of the team gets better. The Sharks managed a miserable 39.5 percent of expected goals with Zetterlund on the ice, so there is room for improvement in his all-around game. He is likely suited to a secondary scoring role, though on this roster, he may still be in a featured offensive role. It is reasonable to expect 20 goals and 40 points out of Zetterlund in 2024-2025 and there could be some upside if the Sharks’ top prospects are ready to be impact players.

Alexander Wennberg

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	11	24	35	0.44

A reliable third-line centre, Wennberg appears to have the talent to contribute more, but the 29-year-old pivot has only reached 40 points in a season twice in his career, the most recent occurrence coming in 2016-2017. Across his entire career, Wennberg has been on the ice for one more goal for (378) than against (377), despite Columbus and Seattle being his home for nearly 90 percent of his games. Oddly enough, Wennberg is not particularly adept in the faceoff circle, winning 46.2 percent of draws in his career, and never finishing over 50 percent in a single season. Wennberg has strong puck skills and can beat a defender one-on-one and is a fine distributor of the puck. If he is going to create more offensive production, Wennberg would need to shoot the puck more frequently. There were 375 forwards that played at least 500 five-on-five minutes last season and 373 of them generated shots at a higher rate than Wennberg’s 3.58 shots on goal per 60 minutes. That isn’t even the worst of it, since Wennberg ranks 375th in shot attempts per 60 (6.41) and individual expected goals per 60 (0.38). That inability, or reluctance, to shoot the puck puts a ceiling on his offensive potential, so he should be able to contribute about 35 points for San Jose in 2024-2025.

Klim Kostin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	13	12	25	0.35

A mammoth winger, 6-foot-4, 232-pound Kostin has flashed brief moments of potential, including when he scored five goals and nine points in his first 13 games for the Sharks after he was acquired from the Red Wings. Although he has yet to firmly establish his place in the NHL, despite previous stops in St. Louis, Edmonton, and Detroit, the 25-year-old has enough skill to complement his gritty game. For players that don’t play much, it helps to be efficiently productive in the ice time that they get. Across the past two seasons, Kostin has 0.99 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. That ranks 65th among forwards that skated at least 500 five-on-five minutes, which is a higher rate than Elias Pettersson, Nico Hischier, and Alex Ovechkin, among many others. Kostin’s particular set of skills may indicate that he is destined to be a fourth-line banger, but it would not be unreasonable to give him opportunities higher on the depth chart to see if he can handle that responsibility over a longer period of time. Provided that he stays healthy and in the lineup for most of the season, Kostin should be able to contribute 25 points for the Sharks in 2024-2025. His career high is 21 points, but he has yet to play more than 57 games in a season, so there is room for improved production.

Ty Dellandrea

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	9	17	26	0.33

Lost in the shuffle in Dallas, Dellandrea went from scoring 28 points in 2022-2023 to just nine points in 42 games last season. The 13th pick in the 2018 Draft can play both centre and wing and brings a physical edge to his game in addition to having decent puck skills, making him more talented than a run-of-the-mill fourth liner. Despite a modest history in Dallas, the move to San Jose could turn Dellandrea loose. He may not be a first line forward, but there is a path to him fitting in San Jose’s middle six, with more ice time and better opportunities than he has been able to experience in the NHL. The 24-year-old has already shown that he will put his body on the line with physical play, hitting frequently and dropping the gloves when needed, so he should be able to secure a regular spot in the Sharks lineup, but it’s fair to expect that he could be more than merely a fringe player. There will be competition for spots in San Jose’s middle six, but Dellandrea should have a chance to earn those minutes and, if he does, a season with 25-30 points would be within his grasp.

Nico Sturm

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	7	12	19	0.26

After going for career highs of 14 goals and 26 points in 2022-2023, his first year with the Sharks, Sturm saw his numbers plummet to five goals and 13 points in 63 games last season. His shot rate dropped to a career-low 1.10 per game and he scored on a career-low 7.2 percent of his shots – it was the perfect statistical recipe for a decline in production. This led to the Sharks getting outscored 42-22 during five-on-five play when Sturm was on the ice. Despite winning a career-high 60.1 percent of his faceoffs, Sturm struggled defensively, allowing career-high rates of shot attempts, expected goals against, and goals against per 60 minutes. Certainly, the Sharks’ overall lack of defensive talent played a part in those results, too, but for a player whose NHL career is built on his success as a checking centre, those results are far from ideal. With the Sharks adding more talent in the offseason, there could be enough depth to cut into Sturm’s ice time. He has played 14:42 per game in two seasons with the Sharks but given the results, redistributing a couple of minutes per game to others on the roster might be best for Sturm. Coming off such a poor season, expectations for Sturm should be modest. He has reached 20 points twice in his career and that would be a fair target for him in the 2024-2025 season.

Barclay Goodrow

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	8	14	22	0.27

Even though Goodrow had an excellent postseason, contributing six goals in 16 games for the Rangers, it was not altogether surprising that the Rangers wanted to move him because he had an abysmal regular season. Goodrow was one of four forwards in the league to play at least 500 five-on-five minutes yet finished the season with a Corsi percentage under 40 percent. He finished with four goals and 12 points, and that followed the two most productive seasons of Goodrow’s career, when he scored 33 and 31 points, respectively. He is a blue-collar player who can play centre or wing, and he plays a hard game, hitting and dropping the gloves, when needed. Nevertheless, his value was inflated by the success he had while winning two Stanley Cups with the Tampa Bay Lightning, and there was little chance that he would ever live up to the six-year, $21.85 million deal that he signed with the Rangers. After three seasons, the Rangers put Goodrow on waivers and he was claimed by the Sharks, his first NHL team. Expect Goodrow to play a significant depth role for San Jose, but he should not be counted on for significant offensive production. It is reasonable to expect something in the range of 20-25 points.

DEFENCE

Jake Walman

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	10	15	25	0.34

Despite scoring a career-high 12 goals and 21 points in 63 games for Detroit, Walman was traded to San Jose, and the 28-year-old blueliner ought to play a significant role for the Sharks. Walman spent most of the 2023-2024 season paired with Moritz Seider and they were fed to the wolves, handling the toughest defensive assignments with a steady diet of defensive zone starts. While their overall results were not great it was a valuable experience and, given the lack of depth on the San Jose blueline, Walman could very well find himself handling major responsibility once again. What Walman showed in a couple of seasons with Detroit is that he can handle the puck on the attack and has some natural finishing talent when he finds himself in scoring position. The question will be if that can happen with any kind of consistency in San Jose? Walman will presumably see significant minutes, including power play time, so the opportunity should be there for him. If Walman can stay relatively healthy, he should be able to set a new high for games played, since he has yet to surpass the 63 games that he has played in each of the past two seasons. If that means playing 70-plus games, then he should be able to challenge for double-digit goals and 20-25 points in the 2024-2025 season.

Mario Ferraro

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	5	20	25	0.31

With Erik Karlsson getting traded to Pittsburgh, the Sharks did little to address that massive hole on the blueline and it left Ferraro as the leading scorer among Sharks defencemen last season. The problem is, he had just 21 points. Ferraro was the workhorse, averaging a team-high 22:52 of ice time per game, but he was not a consideration on the power play, so all 21 points came via even strength. Ferraro has recorded at least 120 hits in each of his five NHL seasons and has gone over 140 blocked shots in each of the past three seasons, peaking at 195 in 2023-2024. Ferraro is a strong skater and is not shy about getting physically involved in the action. The main issue is that without protection from other high-quality defencemen on the roster, because they just don’t exist, Ferraro gets thrown to the wolves. Essentially, he is not being put in a position to succeed right now. Ferraro should be expected to contribute 20-25 points, building on the career-high 21 points he had last season, but without a power play role, there is a clear ceiling on his offensive potential. That is to say nothing of the Sharks’ lack of offensive firepower in general, which does not tend to help out their blueliners. If the young guns, Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith, can elevate San Jose’s attack, then that offers a greater chance that someone like Ferraro could have a little fantasy value.

Ty Emberson

Acquired off waivers from the New York Rangers, the former captain at the University of Wisconsin had two years of seasoning in the American Hockey League, so he was ready for a look with the Sharks last season. Although injuries limited him to just 30 games, Emberson showed in that sample of games that he could be a legitimate NHL defenceman. It would be too soon to make that claim with certainty, but Emberson was among the better defencemen on the worst team in the games that he played. His primary partner on the San Jose blueline was Mario Ferraro, and they were outscored 13-12 in 311 minutes during five-on-five play. That’s not great, but compared to other Sharks pairings, it is encouraging. Emberson had his season shortened by a lower-body injury, which is what makes his projection a little more complicated, but it’s also reasonable to understand that he does not have a track record to suggest that he will suddenly become a significant offensive threat. So long as he stays healthy, Emberson should have a chance to contribute 20-25 points, but he also ought to be able to accrue reliable totals for hits and blocked shots. With 94 hits and 46 blocked shots in 30 games last season, Emberson showed that he is capable of accumulating enough in those peripheral statistical categories.

Henry Thrun

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	5	18	23	0.29

For a Sharks team that is sorely lacking in quality puck-moving defencemen there is a great opportunity for Thrun to handle a big role, including possibly running the point on the top power play unit. It’s not like Thrun is an offensive dynamo, but he did have 63 points in 68 games across his last two seasons at Harvard and four of his 11 points last season came with the man advantage. While Thrun is a smart player who can skate and pass, he is still a young player who experiences the growing pains of a defenceman trying to establish that he is a legitimate NHL defenceman. Trying to prove that with a team that offers so little defensive support is not easy and sometimes the results looked rough during Thrun’s rookie campaign. He has decent size, at 6-foot-2, but is not very physical as a defender, which means he really needs to make a difference with his puck skills. Thrun only has 13 points in 59 NHL games, so any optimistic point projections for 2024-2025 are going to be based on potential. The most reasonable forecast would be for Thrun to contribute 20-25 points in a full season, but there could be a wide range of outcomes because his pro hockey track record is relatively limited.

GOAL

Mackenzie Blackwood

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
35	9	22	3	1	0.902	3.45

Vitek Vanecek

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
18	5	11	2	2	0.898	3.72

No team in the NHL looked worse in 2023 than the San Jose Sharks, who struggled to even put up wins for entire stretches of the season during a painfully apparent rebuild. That’s a tough environment for Mackenzie Blackwood to welcome fellow former New Jersey netminder Vitek Vanecek into - but after taking the reins as the de facto starter last year, Blackwood will hopefully have found his sea legs and help the Sharks as a whole take a small step forward. Blackwood’s numbers certainly weren’t the primary cause for concern in the Bay last year; while he only managed to squeak out ten wins on the whole through 44 starts, he put up wholly winnable performances in over half of his appearances in net. He didn’t quite finish the year at league average, but his overall numbers looked far better than those of a number of netminders who spent the year sitting behind much easier defensive systems; if the Sharks manage to make even a marginal improvement in their play, Blackwood could be enough to keep them from another disastrous free-fall.

Vanecek is by far the bigger wild card for the Pacific Division club, given that his overall stat line from 2023 looked like Blackwood’s inverse; he finished the year with 17 wins in 32 games, but only put up quality starts in 12 of those. That being said, he had managed to clean up a lot of sloppy habits in his game upon his first arrival in New Jersey. Those habits seemed to slip back into the conversation as the 2023-24 season went on, but a lighter workload behind a clear starter in Blackwood could give him the chance to keep his game crisp and polished without succumbing to fatigue.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Coyle thriving in Boston – Rakell emerging from brutal slump – Lyon is king of the crease in Detroit – Kings call up their top prospect and much, much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 05 Jan 2024 20:51:03 +0000

BOSTON, MA - JANUARY 04: Pittsburgh Penguins right wing Rickard Rakell (67) starts up ice during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Pittsburgh Penguins on January 4, 2024, at TD garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Charlie Coyle is thriving in Boston, Rickard Rakell is emerging from a brutal slump, Alex Lyon is king of the crease in Detroit, the Kings call up their top prospect and much, much more!

#1 One of the more surprising developments of this season has been the production that the Boston Bruins have received from their centres in the wake of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retiring. Charlie Coyle, for example, has exceeded 50 points in a season once in his career and it happened in 2016-2017 when he played for the Minnesota Wild. He has seven points (3 G, 4 A) during a five-game point streak, giving him 28 points (134 G, 15 A) in 37 games. Coyle has a good thing going with linemates Brad Marchand and Jake DeBrusk. DeBrusk also has a five-game point streak, during which he has scored seven points (3 G, 4 A) and Marchand has eight points (2 G, 6 A) in his past six contests.

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins winger Rickard Rakell endured a miserable start to the season, going 19 games without a goal, despite putting 48 shots on net. Since then, Rakell has started to come around, putting up seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 18 shots on goal in the past six games. He has been moved up to the top line, with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel, as well as holding down a spot on Pittsburgh’s top power play unit.

#3 When the Detroit Red Wings signed Alex Lyon as a free agent, it appeared that he would be a strong No. 3 option behind Ville Husso and James Reimer. Given the performance of Husso and Reimer, however, Lyon has now claimed the starting job. After stopping 40 of 43 shots in Thursday’s 4-3 shootout win at Los Angeles, Lyon has a .919 save percentage in 11 games. A 31-year-old who had made 31 career NHL starts prior to this season Lyon’s performance has earned him his place in the Red Wings crease. His track record can make it uneasy to put too much weight on Lyon’s performance, but if you need a goaltender, adding one that has performed well in a small sample is preferable to those that have struggled in a larger sample and it seems that there are a lot of candidates from the latter category.

#4 Veteran winger Gustav Nyquist remains quietly productive. Now on his fifth team, the Nashville Predators, Nyquist has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) during a seven-game point streak, making the most of his opportunity to skate on the top line with Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly. Since the start of last season, Nyquist has 57 points in 90 games. His 0.63 points per game in that time is the same as Matty Beniers, Phillip Danault, David Perron, and more.

#5 After putting up a goal and an assist in Thursday’s 6-1 rout at Montreal, Buffalo Sabres centre Casey Mittelstadt is riding a hot streak. In his past nine games, the 25-year-old pivot has produced 11 points (5 G, 6 A) with 16 shots on goal. Although he is skating between Jordan Greenway and rookie Zach Benson at even strength, Mittelstadt is still getting top unit power play time and has scored 30 of his 33 points this season at even strength.

#6 The Los Angeles Kings have called up defenceman Brandt Clarke from Ontario of the American Hockey League. Clarke was the eighth overall pick in the 2021 Draft and played nine games for the Kings in 2022-2023 before he was returned to junior. That season, between regular season and playoffs, he compiled 84 points (30 G, 54 A) in just 43 games for Barrie. The 20-year-old right shot defenceman has put up 32 points (7 G, 25 A) in 30 games in the AHL this season, so he is one of the most exciting prospects in the game and it looks like he is going to get his chance soon with the Kings. In dynasty leagues, he is already super valuable, but Clarke might be worth a look in deeper redraft leagues, too. It will depend on how big his role is on the Los Angeles power play.

#7 Clarke’s U16 AAA teammate with the Don Mills Flyers (where they played with Seattle Kraken prospect Shayne Wright), Brennan Othmann, has just been promoted to the NHL by the New York Rangers. Othmann was the 16^th pick in the 2021 Draft and the rangy winger produced 23 points (9 G, 14 A) in 28 games for Hartford in the AHL to earn his call up. With injuries hitting the Rangers forward ranks – Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko, and Tyler Pitlick are all out of the lineup – the door was opened for Othmann to make his NHL debut, skating on the fourth line with Nick Bonino and Jonny Brodzinski. Othmann does not have as much immediate appeal as Clarke, so he is more a player to keep an eye on for the future, when he might find a spot higher on the depth chart.

#8 A 27-year-old winger who has never recorded more than 30 points in an NHL season, Warren Foegele has moved up to play with Leon Draisaitl and he dropped a five-point game on the Anaheim Ducks on New Year’s Eve. Foegele has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and, importantly, 17 shots on goal in his past five games. As long as he is getting ice time in Edmonton’s top six, Foegele has fantasy value, but it is also a precarious situation – the moment that Kris Knoblauch removes Foegele from that spot, his fantasy appeal becomes very limited.

#9 Moving up to left wing with Draisaitl, Ryan McLeod has typically been a checking centre for most of his time in Edmonton, but is getting a greater offensive opportunity and has suddenly produced eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 11 shots on goal in his past six games. Like Foegele, McLeod’s value may be closely tied to his role, and having the chance to play with a premier playmaker like Draisaitl, but in the short term it does give him more fantasy value than he has had to this point in his career.

#10 Known more for his sound defensive play, Vancouver Canucks centre Pius Suter is adding some offensive pop to his play, contributing seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 13 shots on goal in his past seven games. The recent opportunity to slide up the depth chart and skate on the wing with highly-skilled forwards like J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser raises Suter’s offensive ceiling and should put him on the radar for fantasy managers.

#11 After struggling in 2022-2023, his first season in Dallas, power forward Mason Marchment has found his form this season while skating on a line with veterans Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin. Marchment had a hat trick against the Chicago Blackhawks on New Year’s Eve and has eight points (4 G, 4 A) in the past three games. It is remarkable that Marchment is producing more this season because he is playing a minute per game less than last season and his shot rate is down from 2.18 per game to 1.89 per game. The big difference is that Marchment is scoring on 18.6 percent of his shots after scoring on just 8.1 percent last season.

#12 While his name has landed in recent trade rumors, Carolina Hurricanes winger Michael Bunting has not been hurting his value any, contributing nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 20 shots on goal in his past nine games. While he is skating with Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Martin Necas at even strength, Bunting is on Carolina’s top power play unit, so six of those nine points have come via the power play. If he does get traded, that may not hurt Bunting’s value too much, as any team that acquires him would presumably like him to do what he does best, agitate the opposition and get to the front of the net as often as possible.

#13 Although he does not score a ton, New York Islanders defenceman Alexander Romanov is contributing in peripheral fantasy categories, especially as he takes on more ice time while several of his fellow Islanders defencemen are injured. In the past 10 games, Romanov has four points (2 G, 2 A) but also has 16 hits and 29 blocked shots while playing more than 23 minutes per game. That is not going to give him universal appeal, but to fill hits, blocked shots, and time on ice categories, Romanov has worked his way into fantasy relevance.

#14 San Jose Sharks defenceman Mario Ferraro brings similar value. He does have six assists in his past seven games, which is a sudden offensive surge, but he has 19 blocked shots in those seven games. Ferraro played more than 21 minutes in six of those seven games, with the only exception coming against Colorado on New Year’s Eve when he suffered an upper-body injury after getting hit by Nathan MacKinnon and left the game early. Even so, Ferraro was recovered enough to eat minutes and block shots in San Jose’s next game.

#15 Known more for his physical play, which includes leading his team with 15 fights over the past three seasons, Bruins centre Trent Frederic is starting to contribute on the scoreboard, too. Frederic has six points (3 G, 3 A) in his past six games. While he only has nine shots on goal in that time, Frederic has recorded 12 hits, which elevates him into being worthy of fantasy consideration in deep or banger leagues. His offensive upside is not huge, but he is scoring enough right now to at least warrant fantasy consideration.

#16 Versatile veteran forward Vladislav Namestnikov started the season on Winnipeg’s fourth line but has found himself playing higher on the depth chart, often centering the Jets’ second line. In his past 21 games, Namestnikov has quietly produced 16 points (3 G, 13 A), though it has come with just 20 shots on goal. Nevertheless, in deep leagues that production makes Namestnikov intriguing, especially if he can fill a position on the wing for fantasy managers.

#17 With Wild starting goaltender Filip Gustavsson sidelined week-to-week with a lower-body injury, 39-year-old Marc-Andre Fleury is going to see more consistent action in the Minnesota net. Fleury has a .896 save percentage in 15 games this season. That would match his 21-game stint in 2003-2004 for his lowest save percentage in an NHL season. He does have a .918 save percentage in his eight appearances since the beginning of December, so that is moving in the right direction, and getting more consistent starts will at least offer value for fantasy managers.

#18 Having demoted Akira Schmid to the American Hockey League, the New Jersey Devils have turned to 23-year-old netminder Nico Daws in goal. He has won his first two starts of the season for the Devils, managing a respectable .906 save percentage. Daws had offseason hip surgery so he only appeared in three games for the Utica Devils, posting a .929 save percentage, before he got the call to the NHL. That was probably not the original plan for the young goaltender’s development but the struggles of Schmid and Vitek Vanecek forced the Devils to be more aggressive about trying to solve their goaltending woes.

#19 Buffalo Sabres winger J.J. Peterka might be an interesting buy-low candidate as he has gone 10 games without a goal. He does have five assists and 26 shots on goal in that stretch, though, so the 21-year-old is still creating chances and is likely to break through soon. Even though he fills a secondary scoring role in Buffalo, Peterka is on a line with Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn, a line of talented young players that should not be held down for long.

#20 On the other hand, it might be time to let Pierre-Luc Dubois, so that he can experience the fantasy waiver wire. Even after chipping in a couple of helpers for the Los Angeles Kings in Thursday’s win over Detroit, Dubois has just five points (2 G, 3 A) in his past 16 games, which is abysmal fantasy production, particularly from a player who tallied a career-high 63 points (27 G, 36 A) in Winnipeg last season. The Kings have put Adrian Kempe on the wing with Dubois, and maybe that will jumpstart the centre’s offensive production, but it is getting surprisingly easy to find more productive options on the waiver wire.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – SAN JOSE SHARKS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sun, 08 Oct 2023 18:05:11 +0000

Review: In the entirety of NHL history, a defenseman has reached the 100-point milestone just 15 times. Erik Karlsson accomplished that feat in 2022-23, but despite recording 25 goals and 76 assists with San Jose, the Sharks finished near the bottom of the league with a 22-44-16 record. How did a team featuring one of the all-time greatest individual performances out of a defenseman do that bad? For starters, despite having an elite offensive blueliner, the Sharks’ overall defense was terrible, finishing 25th in 5-on-5 expected goals against (191.27). Some teams can mask a poor defense with good goaltending, but not the 2022-23 Sharks. James Reimer and Kaapo Kahkonen were a truly horrendous netminding duo, combining for a 3.64 GAA and an .886 save percentage. San Jose also had just four forwards breach the 40-point milestone and none reach 70 points, so even with Karlsson’s offensive efforts, the Sharks ranked 25th in goals per game (2.84). Without any help, Karlsson’s efforts ultimately just served to lower the Sharks’ chances of getting elite prospect Connor Bedard in the lottery and keeping them out of the top-three in the 2023 NHL Draft.

What’s Changed? The Sharks clearly need to rebuild and to that end, they dealt Karlsson to Pittsburgh over the summer, receiving a package that primarily included draft picks, but also resulted in San Jose getting veteran forwards Mikael Granlund and Mike Hoffman as well as defenseman Jan Rutta. The Sharks also acquired goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood from New Jersey to replace Reimer, who left as a free agent, and they accepted Anthony Duclair from Florida, who the Panthers moved mostly for cap purposes, but should get a chance to re-establish himself as a top-six forward in San Jose.

What would success look like? Another terrible campaign is probably in their best interests. The Sharks have failed to make the playoffs for the past four years, but they’ve been slow to fully commit to a rebuild, which has arguably only served to extend their period of pain. Even the 2023-24 squad is likely to be in that awkward position of being both bad and full of veterans. At least if they struggle, that’d position them to get another high draft pick and keep their focus squarely on the future. The veterans may be moved for further picks at the trade deadline.

What could go wrong? Things can’t get much worse in San Jose. Arguably, the worst-case scenario would actually be if the veteran cast of Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, Hoffman, Granlund and Duclair – the youngest of which is Duclair at 28 – do just enough to keep the Sharks out of the top-five in the next draft.

Top Breakout Candidate: Sharks fans looking for some reason to watch the 2023-24 campaign should pay attention to William Eklund. Taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2021 draft, Eklund has high-end potential and is coming off an encouraging campaign in which he recorded 41 points in 54 AHL contests along with two goals and three points in eight games with the Sharks. He has a chance to make the Sharks out of training camp and serve in a top-six capacity.

Forwards

Tomas Hertl

A power forward with soft hands, 29-year-old Hertl topped 60 points last season for the third time in his career. He is not especially fast but is excellent at using his size to protect the puck and extend plays in the offensive zone. Hertl is strong on faceoffs, winning more than 53.0% for his career and has been an effective play driver for the Sharks even if the supporting cast is suspect. Hertl could use some better goaltending behind him. He had a Corsi percentage of 52.5% and an expected goals percentage of 52.7% and yet the Sharks were outscored 68-53 with him on the ice in those situations. Hertl does not look for his own shot often enough. He had a nine-game stretch from March 4 through March 20 during which he recorded 35 shots on goal, putting four into the net, but that pace of shot generation was atypical and did not last. He followed up that stretch with 20 shots on goal in his next 11 games. Hertl started the season slowly, with four points (1 G, 3 A) in the first 10 games, but followed that up with 31 points (12 G, 19 A) over his next 25 games. Even with a shaky supporting cast, Hertl can be expected to contribute 25 goals and 65 points for the Sharks.

Logan Couture

The 34-year-old who has logged 927 regular-season games for the Sharks just put up 67 points (27 G, 40 A), tying the second highest single-season point total of his career. In November, he had an eight-game stretch during which he produced 11 points (7 G, 4 A). Couture can generate some offensive production, but he has a track record of mediocre possession numbers, and 2016-2017 was the last time that the Sharks outscored the opposition during 5-on-5 play with Couture on the ice. Oddly enough, he has become worse in the faceoff circle, which is unusual. Most players take some time to get accustomed to taking faceoffs in the league and get better as time goes on. In his first five seasons, Couture won 51.7% of his draws. Since then, he has won 46.6% and he took 1,349 faceoffs last season, easily the most of his career. Couture is at the age when age-related decline could start to have an impact, but 25 goals and 55-60 points should be within range for him because he is still going to play a major role in San Jose.

Anthony Duclair

An Achilles injury limited Duclair to just 20 games last season and he managed just two goals, but he contributed 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 20 playoff games and scored a career high 31 goals and 58 points the year before, so there is reason to be hopeful for a rebound in his production in a full season in 2023-2024. When he is on his game, Duclair uses his speed to get out ahead of the play and will cut hard to the net, where he is very comfortable finishing with a deke. While Duclair’s offensive game continues to soar, his play away from the puck has suffered, so that is an area of focus for the 2023-2024 season. Duclair played just 20 games last season and somehow had a 17-game goal-scoring drought, scoring in his second and 20^th games of the season. The Sharks are Duclair’s seventh NHL team, but they also offer a quality opportunity for a bounce-back season and if he could contribute 45 points, that would be a relatively strong bounce-back performance.

Mike Hoffman

A six-time 20-goal scorer, the 33-year-old winger nevertheless scored just 14 goals for Montreal last season, his lowest total since 2013-2014. Hoffman’s shooting percentage dropped in his two seasons with the Canadiens, to 9.6%, after scoring on 12.0% of his shots before that, so there is a chance that he could get a boost in his finishing rate. Even in a modestly productive season, Hoffman had a 14-game stretch during which he tallied 13 points (2 G, 11 A) and that occurred while he scored on just 5.3% of his shots. One thing to watch with Hoffman is how much ice time he gets in San Jose. He is entering the final season of his contract, and if he scores, there might be teams interested in acquiring him before the trade deadline, so the Sharks will have some incentive to put Hoffman in a position to succeed. Of course, success is a relative term at this stage of Hoffman’s career. If he finishes the season with 15 goals and 35 points, that will have to be considered a success.

Mikael Granlund

Although he is a veteran with four 50-point seasons to his credit, Granlund is coming off a miserable season which he finished by scoring five points (1 G, 4 A) in 21 games with the Penguins after he was acquired from Nashville at the trade deadline. He started the season much better, contributing 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 11 games for the Predators. The 31-year-old playmaker can play center and wing though with the Sharks’ influx of wingers this offseason, Granlund may be needed more in the middle of the ice. His shot generation, which was never his strong suit in the first place, has collapsed to less than 1.50 shots per game in the past three seasons and that really needs to change if he is going to have a positive impact. The move to San Jose will give Granlund a chance at a fresh start, albeit with a team that is likely to be fighting an uphill battle most nights. A 45-point season should still be well within his grasp, with the expectation that he can earn quality ice time on a team that lacks proven forwards.

Alexander Barabanov

The 29-year-old winger has played just three NHL seasons, and barely saw the ice when he played with Toronto in his first season, but Barabanov did record a career high 47 points (15 G, 32 A) in 68 games last season. He may have been the beneficiary of San Jose’s limited depth on the wings, as he ended up playing more than 18 minutes per game, but Barbaranov does not generate a lot of shots and his lofty percentages suggest that he does not have a lot of room to expect an increase in his production. He finished last season strong, tallying 19 points (9 G, 10 A) in his last 23 games, but that production came on just 38 shots on goal, which is not enough to expect those numbers to be sustainable. He should be able to go for 40 points again this season, but if newcomers eat into his ice time, his point totals could dip, too.

Kevin Labanc

Coming off an injury-shortened 2021-2022 season, Labanc contributed 33 points (15 G, 18 A) but he found himself on the doghouse, too, despite providing solid defensive play. From January 11 through March 11, a span of 16 games Labanc had one assist and averaged just 11:04 of ice time per game. His ice time and production picked up after that but with the Sharks acquiring a lot of new wingers in the offseason, Labanc is going to be facing a challenge for ice time in 2023-2024, which seems weird for the returning player who led Sharks regulars in Corsi percentage and expected goals percentage last season. At his best, Labanc is a strong passer with a heavy shot, one that he should try to utilize more frequently. Labanc accrued 56 points during the 2018-2019 campaign, but it feels like he is a long way from that now. A more reasonable expectation for this season is in the 35-point range but there is probably more upside for Labanc if he gets traded to a team that could use his skill in their top six.

Filip Zadina

The Red Wings had enough after Zadina managed just seven points (3 G, 4 A) in 30 games, but that frustration had been building for quite some time. He compiled 68 points in 190 games with the Red Wings, scoring 12 of his 28 goals on the power play, so the sixth pick in the 2018 Draft was given chances to produce and the numbers just weren’t there. Can he resurrect his career in San Jose? For Zadina, it’s worth a try and for the Sharks, they might as well buy low on him and see if he can recapture any of the form that made him such a highly touted prospect. Zadina’s most productive season in Detroit saw him produce a modest 24 points (10 G, 14 A) in 74 games in 2021-2022 and exceeding that might be the most reasonable target for his first season in San Jose. There is a world in which he secures a regular spot on a scoring line and possibly doubles that point total, but there is also a world in which the influx of wingers to San Jose leaves Zadina on the lineup bubble and then the point total could collapse.

Fabian Zetterlund

Acquired from the Devils as part of the Timo Meier trade, Zetterlund had a miserable start to his San Jose career, managing zero goals and three assists in 22 games for the Sharks, but doesn’t tell the whole story. Zetterlund had an expected goals percentage of 37.8% and San Jose was outscored 16-7 during 5-on-5 play with Zetterlund on the ice. At the start of the season, Zetterlund had an instant impact for New Jersey, scoring 13 points (5 G, 8 A) in his first 20 games for the Devils, but he could not keep that pace, following it up with zero goals and five assists in his next 20 games. Zetterlund is a sturdy winger who can battle down low to create scoring chances, but it remains to be seen if he has the ability to score enough to stay in the top half of the lineup. With so many players competing for spots on the wing in San Jose, Zetterlund has a wide range of outcomes, which could mean playing in the top six, or falling out of the lineup entirely. Given the uncertainty, expecting 25-30 points seems about right.

Nico Sturm

A reliable checking center, Sturm landed a bigger role in San Jose last season, playing a career high 14:44 per game and finishing the season with career highs of 14 goals and 26 points. Sturm has good size and won 55.8% of his faceoffs last season, so there is a role for him to fill. That role may not be appreciated as much on a team that is likely to be in a lottery position at season’s end. Even if he tends to play in more of a defensive role, Sturm is not shy about crashing the net to score greasy goals. He scored five goals during an eight-game stretch in October, which may have set unrealistic expectations, because he could obviously not continue that pace. With a secure spot in the Sharks lineup, Sturm could be expected to produce 25 to 30 points from his primarily defensive role.

Defense

Mario Ferraro

While he has never produced more than 17 points in an NHL season, Ferraro has played more than 21 minutes per game for each of the past three seasons and has put up more than 120 hits and 120 blocked shots in each of the past two. He is a strong skater whose defensive impact has declined, so he could use a rebound season to get back on track. While Ferraro’s peripheral stats are strong, he could be in the mix for more of an offensive role, mostly because someone has to take on the minutes that used to belong to Erik Karlsson. Although Ferraro’s career high is 17 points, he has been sharing a blueline with the likes of Karlsson and Brent Burns, both of whom are no longer in San Jose. Without any proven options ready to step into a bigger role on the Sharks blueline, Ferraro could take advantage of the opportunity and might have a chance to produce 25 to 30 points. It says something about the state of the Sharks defense that the blueliner who might have the greatest impact had a 24-game stretch last season during which he recorded a single assist.

Matt Benning

The 29-year-old blueliner played a career high 19:40 per game for the Sharks last season, finishing with a career best 24 points (1 G, 23 A). While those are not eye-popping numbers by any means, Benning is a proven commodity on the Sharks blueline and that will give him a chance to play a significant role in 2023-2024. Benning plays a heady game, thriving on smooth skating and good decision making with the puck, but has not been given a big role in his NHL career. Looking at the competition for playing time in San Jose, Benning is as good a bet as any to handle a more significant role. During a 10-game stretch in November and December last season, when he was playing nearly 21 minutes per game, Benning accumulated nine assists, so that small sample does suggest there could be some offensive potential if he gets consistent minutes. While that might be the case, expecting anything more than 25 points could be considered optimistic.

Kyle Burroughs

A 28-year-old who has played a total of 95 games, Burroughs showed enough potential in Vancouver last season to land a three-year contract with San Jose. He is not big, but plays an aggressive game, putting up 165 hits in 48 games for the Canucks. He is also not afraid to drop the gloves, when necessary. On San Jose’s rebuilding blueline, there will be a chance for Burroughs to earn a bigger role than he has ever had before in the NHL. He was effective enough in his limited role with Vancouver and if he continues to play with that edge to his game, that could give him him the inside track to a top-four role with the Sharks. Although Burroughs has just 11 points in 95 career games, he is poised to get what is, for him, an unprecedented opportunity on San Jose’s rebuilding blueline. It might not result in even 20 points, but Burroughs could also deliver 250 hits and 125 blocked shots over the course of a full season.

Goaltending

Mackenzie Blackwood

The San Jose Sharks just haven’t been able to figure out what to do in net lately. The Pacific Division team doggedly refused to move on from a floundering Martin Jones for almost too long, then went through a quick succession of short-term band-aids in James Reimer, Adin Hill, and Kaapo Kahkonen before trading for MacKenzie Blackwood this off-season. The hope, almost certainly, is that Blackwood will be able to reset his game and his mindset after struggling to produce in New Jersey amidst a rash of injuries.

There’s a potential for success there. Blackwood was far from what a playoff-bound New Jersey needed last year – he struggled with even more injuries, and prospect Akira Schmid proved he was more than ready to take over as an NHL regular to tandem with Vitek Vanecek. But his game style, which utilizes his bigger frame to take up space in the net and doesn’t require a lot of aggressive challenging or puck-handling, could be a better fit for San Jose than either Adin Hill or Kaapo Kahkonen’s more movement-reliant game play styles. And since Hill didn’t shine for San Jose (and Kahkonen will be back this season but didn’t do much to inspire confidence last year) it’s worth considering that moving in the other direction stylistically could work out in the team’s favor. Add in the fact that Blackwood performed much closer to his expected output last year than Kahkonen – he was near the middle of the pack across the league in terms of expected goals numbers, while Kahkonen was nearly at the bottom of the league altogether – and there’s reason to hope that this change in scenery will be exactly what Blackwood needs. Now, he just needs to prove he can stay healthy.

Projected starts: 40-45

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – SAN JOSE SHARKS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:24:48 +0000

SAN JOSE, CA - FEBRUARY 14: San Jose Sharks center Tomas Hertl (48) and San Jose Sharks right wing Timo Meier (28) talk during a timeout during the NHL game between the San Jose Sharks and the Edmonton Oilers on February 14, 2022 at SAP Center in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Matt Cohen/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Timo Meier

An elite shot generator who had everything come together in 2021-2022, Meier had career highs in goal (35) and points (76) while launching 4.23 shots on goal per game, the highest rate of his career and fifth highest rate in the league. There had been signs of this kind of performance before, but last season Meier was a consistent force throughout the season and it’s not easy to generate shots and points at that rate, especially for a team that is struggling. Now that sets a new level of expectations for what he might be able to accomplish in the future, but if the Sharks are going to become a more competitive franchise, they will likely need more of the same from Meier. Furthermore, if he puts up another season like he did last season, there ought to be greater league-wide recognition for his performance because he was outstanding last season. Tempering expectations, Meier should be a reasonable bet for 30 goals and 65 points this season, with the understanding that if he can maintain his elite shot rates that he could very well be a point-per-game player.

Tomas Hertl

After committing to stay in San Jose with a new contract, Hertl responded by scoring 30 goals for the second time in his career and his 64 points also represented the second highest total of his career. A powerful and skilled center, Hertl also recorded a career high 105 hits and played a career high 19:56 per game. It was a very productive campaign, and he did all of this despite starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone, which does not seem like an ideal use of his talents. Hertl is solid defensively, that’s not the point, but the 28-year-old’s offensive skills set him apart to a greater degree, so it might make more sense to focus his efforts there, when possible. Hertl should be able to produce 25 goals and 60 points, with room to elevate further depending on his durability and how well his supporting cast in San Jose performs.

Logan Couture

The 33-year-old center continues to deliver solid results, and he put up 23 goals and 56 points last season while driving play in a positive way, at least relative to his teammates. Couture’s shot rate of 2.58 shots per game last season was his highest since 2017-2018, the season when he scored a career-high 34 goals, but he has established a level of productivity in the league, surpassing 20 goals nine times and topping 30 goals three times. The main question for the Sharks will be for how much longer can he produce at a first line level? He is under contract for five more seasons, and it seems unlikely that he will avoid decline in that time, but he is coming off a strong season and should be in position to be a productive scoring center again, good for at least 50 points, maybe even more.

Alexander Barabanov

After starting his NHL career as a spare part with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Barabanov has found stability in San Jose, producing 46 points in 79 games since joining the Sharks. Some measure of that production may reflect opportunity more than his own individual improvement, because Barabanov’s most common Sharks linemates have been Tomas Hertl and Timo Meier, so that is about as favorable as it gets for a Sharks winger. Barabanov also happens to be a relatively reluctant shooter, so having him in a playmaking role with the team’s top two goal-scorers does offer a stylistic fit. It’s hard to pin down a forecast for Barabanov because he seems so heavily dependent on linemates that are better players, so if he was to get bumped from the top line, his value could drop dramatically. As such, the reasonable play would be to expect 30 points from Barabanov, with the understanding that he has potential upside that could take him higher.

Kevin Labanc

A skilled 26-year-old winger, Labanc had stumbled since busting out for a career high 56 points in 2018-2019 and he had managed just six points in 21 games before he had to undergo shoulder surgery and that ultimately left him sidelined for the rest of the season. In his last eight games before surgery, Labanc had zero points and was averaging just 10 minutes of ice time per game, so he was at a relative low point. He has the playmaking skill to play in a top six role but after some injuries and inconsistency he will have to earn his way back into a significant spot with this team. Labanc could do it, because he has the puck skills and the shot to be a point producer in the National Hockey League but, coming off shoulder surgery, it is not going to be easy to get back to his previous level of production. If Labanc produced 35-40 points and managed to stay healthy, that would be a positive outcome, but there is a path to even more points if he could get back to his early career form.

Oskar Lindblom

Although the Philadelphia Flyers stuck with Lindblom while he recovered from Ewing’s Sarcoma, he had not been able to recapture his previous form, so the Flyers bought out the final year of his contract. That presented an opportunity for the Sharks to buy low on a 26-year-old winger who had shown real promise early in his NHL career. It is a worthwhile risk to take because Lindblom’s defensive play is solid enough, which raises the floor on his level of contribution, but if the 26-year-old can get his scoring touch back then he might have a chance to score 15 goals and 30 points to provide a favorable return on investment.

Luke Kunin

Picked up in a trade with the Nashville Predators, Kunin is a feisty winger whose on-ice results aren’t great, but teams that want guys who will go to battle are interested in players like Kunin because he hits a lot and will drop the gloves, if need be. He does have some level of skill, scoring 38 goals in 183 games across the past three seasons, but the challenge for the Sharks is taking the parts of Kunin’s game that they like and figuring out how to improve his possession results because, among the 232 forwards that have played at least 2000 5v5 minutes in the past three seasons, Kunin ranks 231^st in relative Corsi. If he can overcome those underlying numbers, Kunin could produce 15 goals and 25-30 points, while potentially adding huge hit totals – he had 223 hits last season, the first time in his career that he had more than 90 hits in a season.

Nick Bonino

A reliable veteran who struggled quite a bit last season, Bonino went 18 games without a point to start the season, though he ended up scoring eight goals in his last 15 games to finish with more respectable numbers. Still, 26 points in 80 games was the 34-year-old’s lowest per-game production since his rookie season of 2010-2011. Bonino tends to have the deck stacked against him, starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone, and even with his sound defensive play, his possession numbers have been terrible the past two seasons. Given his age, it’s fair to wonder if he will be able to turn that around. Setting an expectation for 15 goals and 30 points is reasonable enough, provided Bonino can maintain a top nine role.

Noah Gregor

A 24-year-old winger, Gregor has started to make his mark in the NHL by generating shots at a high rate but has not been able to finish his chances, scoring on just 6.4% of his shots on goal in his career. If he can’t finish at a higher rate, then Gregor will have to provide energy and physical play in a depth role. It is still relatively early in Gregor’s NHL career, so he will face a challenge from others just to secure a spot in the lineup, but if Gregor can play on a consistent basis, 25 points could be in his sights, and his scoring numbers could spike if he ever learns how to finish. He had scored 14 goals and 40 points in 43 AHL games, so it’s not like he is unfamiliar with the objective when he gets into the offensive zone. It has just proven to be difficult for him to finish his opportunities in the NHL.

DEFENSE

Erik Karlsson

Following a down season in 2020-2021, Karlsson bounced back in a big way last season. While he wasn’t peak Karlsson, he still put up 35 points in 50 games. Of course, injuries have played a bigger part in Karlsson’s career in recent seasons, as he has not played 70 games in a season since 2017-2018. Since 2013-2014, Karlsson has scored 497 points which ranks fourth among defensemen. His 0.82 points per game ranks second among defensemen (behind Cale Makar). With Brent Burns getting traded to Carolina, Karlsson should have a bigger role quarterbacking the Sharks power play, so if Karlsson could manage to stay healthy, he might have his best offensive production in several seasons. Try 45 points with potential for more if Karlsson manages to stay healthy. That health risk is not something to be ignored, either, since Karlsson has missed more than 10 games in four of the past five seasons.

Ryan Merkley

The 2018 first-round pick reached the National Hockey League last season and played 39 games for the Sharks. While he has potential, with the ability to generate offensive chances, he is also a work in progress when it comes to his play without the puck. That could leave him in a battle for a regular spot in the lineup, but the 22-year-old also offers offensive potential and that might hold some value for the Sharks. Merkley has 30 points, though just two goals, in 63 AHL games, so he has a little bit of an offensive track record that should offer more hope than the six points in 39 games that he scored for the Sharks last season.

Mario Ferraro

A bundle of energy who plays hard, which is exactly what the Sharks are trying to establish as their team identity. The 23-year-old was one of 11 defensemen to record at least 140 hits and 140 blocked shots last season, even though he was limited to 63 games after suffering a broken fibula. There is still room for improvement, with regard to how he can generate offense and how he defends the blueline. If Ferraro could produce more than 20 points that would count as progress, but that also might be enough, along with his hit and blocked shot totals, to give him fringe fantasy value in deep leagues.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic

There was a time when Vlasic was a premier shutdown defender but that is in the rearview mirror now and the 35-year-old’s role has been reduced significantly in recent seasons. He played a career-low 15:13 per game last season and is now an expensive depth defenseman. San Jose has been outscored 141-91 with Vlasic on the ice during 5-on-5 play in the past three seasons, so it’s understandable that his role is getting reduced and that reduced role limits what kind of scoring might come from Vlasic. Anything more than 15 points would be relatively surprising.

GOALTENDING

James Reimer

The San Jose Sharks quickly cleared up any lingering questions that fans might have had regarding their goaltending tandem positions a few weeks before training camp was set to open, dealing Adin Hill to the Vegas Golden Knights and leaving James Reimer with only backup Kaapo Kähkönen as his second-in-command.

The Sharks remain a hard team to figure out from a goaltending perspective, because they just can’t seem to put it all together – although Reimer, who will be 35-years-old before the season wraps up, has been their most successful option over the last handful of years. His .911 save percentage in all situations was peppered with consistently good games and very few poor ones, similar to the games that Antti Raanta posted for Carolina in Reimer’s old spot on the east coast; like Raanta, Reimer played a season that didn’t challenge for any Vezina nods but gave his team a known and consistent entity to play behind each night. Reimer’s game still has a few of the rough edges that have lingered as a tribute to the unorthodox development path he took – he didn’t receive formal goaltending coaching until later in his adolescence, giving him a style that relies more on his instincts than monotonous style and predictable footwork. But while he lacks some of the finesse of goaltenders who had earlier formal training, his affable personality shines through in how seamlessly he integrates himself into a team’s defensive system; he seems to rarely find himself fighting against those playing in front of him, and his lack of inconsistency over the last five or six seasons make it easy to trust that he’ll get the job done in the back while his teammates can focus their games more on offense. His biggest risk area remains his health; while he hasn’t missed extensive time recently, his laundry list of injuries over his career keep him firmly encamped among the goaltenders who will always need a reliable number two just in case the team is left without their services for a stretch.

Projected starts: 50-55

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Mason Marchment, Alex Tuch, Jared McCann, Valeri Nichushkin, Michael Bunting, and more players with increasing fantasy value.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 04 Feb 2022 18:59:06 +0000

Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, the Florida Panthers are a rising tide that lifts all ships, including Mason Marchment. Alex Tuch, Jared McCann, Valeri Nichushkin, Michael Bunting, and more players with increasing fantasy value.

TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 19: Florida Panthers left wing Mason Marchment (17) skates in the third period of the NHL game between the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning on October 19, 2021 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Florida Panthers left winger Mason Marchment exploded into the fantasy consciousness this week with a six-point game at Columbus, lifting him to 23 points (8 G, 15 A) in 22 games this season. For added value, Marchment also has 51 hits in those 22 games, and has a good thing going with rookie center Anton Lundell and right winger Sam Reinhart. While there is reason to be optimistic about Marchment as a legitimate contributor in fantasy, note that his on-ice shooting percentage of 14.7% is very high and not likely to sustain at that level. Given his physical contributions, though, Marchment still has fantasy appeal even if he isn’t likely to continue scoring at a point-per-game pace.

#2 Aside from Marchment, forwards that are likely to see some regression in their numbers based on inflated 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentages: Ryan Hartman (14.4%), Kirill Kaprizov (13.7%), Mark Stone (13.6%), Mats Zuccarello (13.4%), Rem Pitlick (13.3%), Max Pacioretty (13.2%), Anton Lundell (13.1%), Nazem Kadri (13.0%), and Tom Wilson (12.9%). Keep your eyes on the top lines in Minnesota and Vegas because, as skilled as they are, it can be difficult to maintain such lofty percentages.

#3 On the other hand, some skilled forwards that could be looking at better results because, so far, they have had a low on-ice shooting percentage: Brock Boeser (4.4%), Kevin Hayes (4.8%), Filip Zadina (4.8%), James van Riemsdyk (5.1%), Kyle Palmieri (5.2%), Sean Monahan (5.3%), Nils Hoglander (5.4%), Mike Hoffman (5.4%), William Karlsson (5.5%), and Elias Pettersson (5.5%). Players with a low on-ice shooting percentage tend to make good trade targets because the perception of their value is diminished.

#4 Since the NHL schedule pause in December, the Florida Panthers have been a high-octane attack, averaging 4.88 goals/60 in all situations in 18 games played during that span. The team with the second-highest goal-scoring rate in that time is the Toronto Maple Leafs (4.35 G/60), more than a half-goal per 60 minutes behind the Panthers. The Minnesota Wild (4.27), Carolina Hurricanes (3.87), and Pittsburgh Penguins (3.81) round out the top five teams.

#5 A big piece of the trade that sent Jack Eichel to the Vegas Golden Knights, Alex Tuch has really responded to his increased role with the Buffalo Sabres. A native of Syracuse, New York, Tuch has produced 13 points (5 G, 8 A) along with 37 shots on goal while averaging 19:46 time on ice in 13 games for the Sabres. He has combined with Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner to give the Sabres a legitimately dangerous top line.

SEATTLE, WA - JANUARY 25: Seattle Kraken left wing Jared McCann (16) handles the puck during an NHL game between the Nashville Predators and the Seattle Kraken on January 25, 2022 at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Jeff Halstead/Icon Sportswire)

#6 One of the best selections by the Seattle Kraken in the expansion draft, Jared McCann has tied a career high with 19 goals in just 41 games. He is scoring on 18.1% of his shots, which is a tad high, but McCann could also play more than the 16:04 average time on ice per game he has been getting with Seattle.

#7 After signing a big free agent deal in Calgary in the summer, Blake Coleman struggled to produce offensively, but he was starting to round into form heading into the All-Star break, putting up nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 30 shots on goal in his last 10 games. From the time he arrived in the league, Coleman has increased his fantasy value with his hit totals and 89 hits in 41 games this season gives him some of that added appeal now that his scoring numbers have picked up.

#8 In the past couple of seasons, Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin has established that he is an elite checking winger, with outstanding impact during 5-on-5 play, but he has not been a big scorer. That has changed somewhat this season. He has missed time, playing in just 28 games, but Nichushkin has 23 points (12 G, 11 A) and 75 shots on goal while playing a career high 18:14 per game. That shot rate is climbing, too – 52 in his past 16 games works out to 3.25 per game.

#9 The Toronto Maple Leafs have tried other combinations of forwards, but it turns out that their best option to skate on the left side with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the top line is Michael Bunting, the 26-year-old who is still a rookie. In his past 23 games, Bunting has chipped in 21 points (9 G, 12 A) and 20 of those points have at even strength. His ability to do things that his linemates can’t makes him a strong fit in that spot.

#10 When Toronto Maple Leafs winger Ilya Mikheyev asked for a trade in the offseason, the Maple Leafs declined to take him up on that request and had high hopes for him for the 2021-2022 season, but that was stalled when he suffered a broken thumb in the preseason. Mikheyev played one game in mid-December before the schedule pause but in the dozen games since, he has 10 points (7 G, 3 A) and 37 shots on goal. For a player who was a notoriously poor finisher in his previous two seasons, Mikheyev is starting to find the net and raising the price of his value on the upcoming free agent market.

#11 The Vegas Golden Knights just signed defenseman Brayden McNabb to a three-year contract extension and while McNabb is not a typical fantasy darling because he does not register a lot of points – he has finished with more than 16 points once in his career – McNabb does have some deep league appeal because he is a consistent source of hits and blocked shots. McNabb has averaged a combined 4.72 hits plus blocked shots per game this season, which ranks 10^th among defensemen that have appeared in at least 20 games.

#12 The nine defensemen ahead of McNabb in combined hits plus blocked shots per game: Radko Gudas (5.89), Alexander Romanov (5.32), Luke Schenn (5.30), Rasmus Ristolainen (5.17), Jacob Trouba (5.11), Connor Murphy (4.93), Darnell Nurse (4.91), Mario Ferraro (4.90), and Erik Cernak (4.76).

#13 After scoring 65 points in 2017-2018, Arizona Coyotes winger Clayton Keller has stumbled along for the past three seasons, well behind that rate of production. It seems that he might have turned the corner this season, even as the Coyotes languish near the bottom of the league. In his past 29 games, Keller has 32 points (14 G, 18 A) and 90 shots on goal.

#14 Veteran Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner scored 30 goals during the 2015-2016 season but has not scored more than 18 goals in any other season. This season, Jenner is up to 18 goals after producing 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 35 shots on goal in the last 11 games before the All-Star break. He is not recording hits at the same level as he did earlier in his career, when he had four 200-hit seasons, but Jenner’s improved goal-scoring and shot rate still makes him a valuable contributor.

#15 The Los Angeles Kings have tried to focus on improving their team speed and it is starting to pay off. Winger Viktor Arvidsson, who they acquired from Nashville in the offseason, has really picked up his play in 2022. In his past 15 games, Arvidsson has delivered 15 points (7 G, 8 A) along with 59 shots on goal. Alex Iafallo is another speedy winger who has had an impact on the Kings’ improving playoff fortunes. Averaging a career-high 2.87 shots on goal per game, Iafallo has 28 points (14 G, 14 A) in 45 games, which puts him well within striking distance of his career high of 17 goals, set in 2019-2020.

#16 As the New York Islanders are the only team in the league that has yet to play 40 games, they do offer more potential value for the rest of the NHL season. One player to consider for the Isles is center Brock Nelson, who has been heating up with nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 20 shots on goal in the past nine games. The five-time 20-goal scorer has 14 goals in 30 games this season.

#17 A left winger that looked like good value on the free agent market last summer (as compared to big-ticket signing Zach Hyman, for example), Brandon Saad has been quietly effective with the St. Louis Blues. Saad has nine points (3 G, 6 A) in his past eight games and is up to 25 points (15 G, 10 A) in 40 games.

#18 There have been lots of rumors about the Arizona Coyotes dealing defenseman Jakob Chychrun, who has not been terribly productive this season, managing 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in 34 games. This after finishing with a career high 18 goals and 41 points in 56 games last season. Presumably, the opportunity to play for a more competitive team would work in Chychrun’s favor but it is noteworthy that Shayne Gostisbehere has been putting up numbers for the Coyotes this season, accumulating 28 points (8 G, 20 A) in 45 games, which is tied for 16^th among defensemen.

#19 Another defenseman who has term left on his contract but could be available on the trade market is Montreal Canadiens veteran Jeff Petry, who may have had the best season of his career in 2020-2021, producing 42 points (12 G, 30 A) in 55 games. This season has been an entirely different story for Petry, as he shockingly has just six points (1 G, 5 A) in 37 games. As a player that tends to contribute to peripheral fantasy hockey categories like hits and blocked shots, too, Petry had plenty of fantasy value when he was scoring but right now, not so much.

#20 The hunt for goaltending at this stage of the season does not offer a lot of options. I wrote last week about Ville Husso, Pavel Francouz, and Matt Murray, and their varying degrees of fantasy value, but also consider Los Angeles Kings goaltender Cal Petersen, who has not seized the starting job in the way that might have been expected, in part because Jonathan Quick played so well early in the season. However, Quick has slumped lately, posting a .873 save percentage in 10 games since the schedule pause, and Petersen is 6-1 with a .914 save percentage in his past seven appearances.

#21 While Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Petr Mrazek is not exactly pushing for the starting job, he will have an opportunity to play more as starter Jack Campbell has lost some measure of his early season excellence. Mrazek does have a .921 save percentage in four games since returning from the schedule pause while Campbell has a .891 save percentage in nine games since returning from the December schedule pause.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Troy Terry continues streak, Nick Suzuki is surging, and much more

Scott Cullen — Thu, 11 Nov 2021 15:18:36 +0000

I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Troy Terry continues his scoring streak, Nick Suzuki is surging after a slow start, and Chandler Stephenson should not be overlooked in Vegas.

ST. LOUIS, MO - MAY 03: Anaheim Ducks rightwing Troy Terry (61) gets set to pass with pressure from St. Louis Blues defenseman Niko Mikkola (77) during a NHL game between the Anaheim Ducks and the St. Louis Blues on May 03, 2021, at Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Mo. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire),

#1 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry is riding a 12-game point streak, having recorded a point in every Ducks game since the opener when he played just 8:35 at Winnipeg. The value play may be shifting on Terry. He came into the season with modest expectations, but this point streak has elevated his stature and now that he is widely known, there might be value in trying to trade him for a more established player.

Terry has 16 points (9 G, 7 A) and 29 shots on goal during the 12-game streak. He has also scored on 31.0% of his shots so even if there is real improvement in Terry’s game, there is almost assuredly going to be regression coming for his shooting percentage.

#2 As the Montreal Canadiens stumbled out of the gate this season, so too did their No. 1 centre, Nick Suzuki, who had one assist through six games. Since then, Suzuki has produced 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 27 shots on goal in eight games. He is creating chances and making the high-end skill plays that are expected of him as the Habs’ offensive leader.

#3 While his name briefly popped into Jack Eichel trade rumors, Matthew Tkachuk has not let that phase him at all and he has been a force for the Flames. He has nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 27 shots on goal in the past seven games

#4 Last season’s Norris Trophy winner, Rangers defenceman Adam Fox, really vaulted into consideration when his offensive game picked up last season. He scored 40 points (4 G, 36 A) in his last 39 games last season, despite not recording a point in the final six games. Fox has opened this season with 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 13 games, which leads all defencemen and ties Fox with Artemi Panarin for the team lead.

#5 Naturally, a lot was made of the Vegas Golden Knights acquiring Jack Eichel, with expectations that Eichel would super-charge Vegas’ top line. When everyone has been healthy in Vegas, that has been the domain of Chandler Stephenson, who has continued to produce, even with injuries taking Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone out of the lineup. In the past eight games, Stephenson has contributed nine points (3 G, 6 A) but only 13 shots on goal.

#6 While the Vancouver Canucks try to get more out of star centre Elias Pettersson, they have been able to lean on J.T. Miller, who has 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 13 games. He is averaging 22:25 time on ice per game, which ranks third among all forwards, behind only Leon Draisaitl (22:51) and Connor McDavid (22:30).

#7 One of the challenges in fantasy hockey is that sometimes there are players that produce for fantasy purposes and maybe their all-around game does not match that production. Consider defencemen like Seth Jones and Tyson Barrie. Jones, in his first season with the Chicago Blackhawks after an offseason trade from Columbus, has 12 points (1 G, 11 A) and 45 shots on goal in 14 games. He is also getting soundly outshot and the Blackhawks have been outscored 16-8 during 5-on-5 play with Jones on the ice.

#8 Edmonton’s Tyson Barrie is in a similar position. Barrie led all defencemen in scoring last season and has eight points (2 G, 6 A) in 11 games this season. He has been fortunate enough to not get outscored because Barrie is getting outshot substantially. His -10.0 CFRel% is sixth worst among defencemen to play at least 100 5-on-5 minutes. Patrik Nemeth, Brian Dumoulin, Ty Smith, Marco Scandella, and Kevin Shattenkirk are the five defencemen getting outshot worse than Barrie relative to their teammates. But proximity to McDavid and Draisaitl ensures that Barrie will put up points and that means he will have fantasy value.

#9 For a player who has never surpassed the 31 points that he scored in each of his first two seasons, Minnesota Wild forward Ryan Hartman offers some sneaky fantasy value. It may be short term, but this isn’t just about Hartman scoring five points (4 G, 1 A) in the past five games. The more intriguing part is that Hartman has 38 shots on goal in 11 games this season, a rate of 3.45 per game, which is a massive spike from the 1.45 shots on goal per game he had last season. When it comes to seeking out sustainable production, hunting down players that are consistently getting shots is a good approach.

#10 Seattle Kraken left winger Jaden Schwartz started slowly, with one assist in six games, but has seven points (2 G, 5 A) in seven games since. In those seven games, Schwartz has 22 shots on goal and is averaging 19:34 time on ice per game, both of which are good indications that he has been getting good opportunities to produce.

#11 Fresh off his highlight reel overtime goal at Montreal, Los Angeles Kings left winger Adrian Kempe has goals in four straight games and has seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 21 shots on goal in the past seven games. With Viktor Arvidsson out, there is an opportunity for Kempe to play with Anze Kopitar and that is a good place to be.

ST. PAUL, MN - JANUARY 31: Colorado Avalanche Defenceman Bowen Byram (4) skates with the puck during an NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and the Colorado Avalanche on January 31, 2021, at Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

#12 Injuries contributed to Colorado Avalanche defenceman Bowen Byram playing just 19 games last season, so he remains rookie eligible and the fourth pick in the 2019 Draft may very well find himself in the Calder Trophy discussion. Devon Toews is still recovering from shoulder surgery and has not played yet for the Avalanche this season. That has given Byram ample opportunity to show his stuff and he has put up eight points (3 G, 5 A) while playing more than 21 minutes per game. That is an impressive start for a 20-year-old defenceman.

#13 The San Jose Sharks are giving third year blueliner Mario Ferraro a big role this season and he is running with it. Playing more than 25 minutes per game, Ferraro does have four points (1 G, 3 A) in the past four games, but his fantasy hook really comes from 25 hits and 35 blocked shots in 11 games. Those peripheral numbers matter, too.

#14 The Columbus Blue Jackets drafted Sonny Milano 16^th overall in the 2014 Draft and did not get much out of him. Milano showed some potential but ultimately had 42 points (20 G, 22 A) in 116 games for Columbus before he was traded to Anaheim. He had five points (2 G, 3 A) in 15 games for the Ducks coming into this season but is getting more of an opportunity now and making the most of it. Milano has seven points (2 G, 5 A) in nine games this season, averaging a career high 15:47 time on ice per game. This is still small sample success for Milano but it’s worth keeping him on your radar in case this is his breakout season.

#15 Bruins right winger David Pastrnak has managed a mediocre eight points (3 G, 5 A) in 10 games but while that qualifies as disappointing for a star scorer like Pastrnak, he has 45 shots in that time, and 4.5 shots on goal per game is a career high. That does not guarantee that prime Pastrnak is just around the corner but if you’re going to buy low, doing it on a player who is firing a ton of pucks is usually a good play. Even better when it is a player who has proven that he is one of the premier goal-scorers in the league.

#16 Anthony Duclair started the season with goals in each of the first three games, even though he was barely playing – getting an average of 10:45 time on ice per game. He has climbed the Panthers depth chart, getting back on the top line with Carter Verhaeghe and Aleksander Barkov. In his past eight games, Duclair has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 20 shots on goal while playing nearly 16 minutes per game.

#17 Red Wings rookie defenceman Moritz Seider has been every bit as good as advertised, and then some. He did have 28 points in 41 games for Rogle in the Swedish Hockey League last season, so his production is not entirely unexpected, but Seider has recorded 11 points (2 G, 9 A) in his first 14 games for the Red Wings while playing more than 22 minutes per game. Along with teammate Lucas Raymond, the Red Wings have strong Calder Trophy contenders.

#18 Goaltending is unpredictable and frustrating and can ruin your fantasy season. It can also make your fantasy season but who knows which goaltender will provide those positive results? Just take a look at last year’s top five vote-getters for the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender. The winner was Marc-Andre Fleury, who is having a disaster of a season in Chicago. Runner-up was Andrei Vasilevskiy and, okay, he is still really good playing behind a strong team and his recent play has been top notch. Third in voting was Philipp Grubauer, who could have reasonably expected this season to be more challenging, going from Colorado to Seattle, but there has been a steep drop there. Fourth was Connor Hellebuyck, who has not played to his typically high standards. Fifth was Semyon Varlamov, who was recovering from offseason surgery and might have lost his job to Ilya Sorokin. It is early and lots can change, not least of all goaltending performance, but there are fantasy managers who thought they were making a safe play in goal and have been left with disappointing results.

#19 According to Natural Stat Trick, there are seven teams that are generating more than 2.50 expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. Some of these teams might be expected, like Toronto and Carolina at 1-2, but there are some surprises. Minnesota, Calgary, Florida, Pittsburgh, and Detroit round out the top seven and it might offer some encouragement to select players from those teams.

#20 At the other end of the spectrum, there are five teams with fewer than 2.00 expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. That group includes Chicago, San Jose, New York Rangers, Arizona, and Vancouver. That seems troubling for teams like the Rangers and Canucks, that would have expected to be more dangerous offensively, maybe not as troubling for Chicago and Arizona, teams that appear to be in real trouble. San Jose? They probably need to generate more offence if they are going to be legitimately competitive. In any case, it’s worth having a read on team-level results when looking for fantasy value, because you might want to think twice about some players on these teams until these rates start to improve.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS 4/14/21 – TRADE DEADLINE EDITION – Hall, Vrana, Mantha, Bennett, Carter and more

Scott Cullen — Wed, 14 Apr 2021 21:10:46 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, notes on some of the biggest names to move before the trade deadline – Taylor Hall, Jakub Vrana, Anthony Mantha, Sam Bennett, and Jeff Carter plus emerging players Michael Bunting, Connor Brown, and Adam Erne.

BOSTON, MA - APRIL 13: Boston Bruins left wing Taylor Hall (11) takes a shot off the face off during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Buffalo Sabres on April 13, 2021, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

#1 It is hard to imagine a highly skilled forward going through the stretch that Taylor Hall did with the Buffalo Sabres this season, scoring two goals in 37 games before he was traded to Boston. Not only did Buffalo have their best shot and expected goal metrics when Hall was on the ice, which is to be expected because he has been a play driver for his entire career, but the Sabres were outscored 29-17 with Hall on the ice at 5-on-5 thanks to an .895 save percentage. The on-ice shooting percentage of 6.4% wasn’t great either. Low percentages can sink anyone’s perceived value but if those percentages bounce back, Hall could be poised for a big finish with the Bruins.

#2 In the past three seasons, there are 205 forwards that have played at least 2000 5-on-5 minutes. From that group, Jakub Vrana ranks fifth in goals per 60 minutes with 1.36, behind only Auston Matthews (1.55), Alex Ovechkin (1.49), Brendan Gallagher (1.48), and David Pastrnak (1.37). That’s pretty great company for the 25-year-old winger. Now, moving to Detroit, he also might have a chance to get more power play time because, while he has seen more power play time this season, Vrana was very clearly on the second unit in previous seasons and the second unit in Washington does not get a lot of prime opportunities.

#3 Looking at the power play, in the past three seasons, Anthony Mantha – who went from Detroit to Washington in a trade for Vrana – is one of 224 forwards to play at least 200 5-on-4 minutes. He ranks 15^th with 16.2 shots per 60 minutes but 74^th with 1.91 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-4 play. In Washington, Mantha is looking at less time on the power play so the question will be whether he can offset that with more production during 5-on-5 play. He started his Capitals tenure skating on a line with Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie which should help him generate quality scoring chances.

#4 Sam Bennett was on a four-game point streak when the Calgary Flames traded him to the Florida Panthers, his first four-game point streak since December of 2017. In the past three seasons, there are 12 Flames forwards that have played at least 1000 5-on-5 minutes and Bennett ranked 10^th with 1.45 points per 60 minutes, ahead of only Mark Jankowski. However, Bennett did rank sixth among Flames forwards in that time in rate of shot attempts, shots, and expected goals, so he is capable of creating some offense. Just look to the postseason, where Bennett has produced 13 points (6 G, 7 A) with 41 shots on goal in 15 games over Calgary’s past two playoff appearances.

#5 It might seem unusual for a contending team like the Pittsburgh Penguins to seek out the services of 36-year-old Jeff Carter, who had 19 points (8 G, 11 A) in 40 games for the Los Angeles Kings, except that Carter was leading the Kings in 5-on-5 shot attempts, shots on goal, and expected goals per 60 minutes. The trouble is that Carter has scored on 6.8% of his shot this season, his lowest shooting percentage since 2006-2007, his second year in the league.

#6 Carter’s 5-on-5 shot rate (10.87 per 60) ranks seventh in the league among forwards to play at least 300 5-on-5 minutes this season, behind Brendan Gallagher, Brady Tkachuk, Frank Vatrano, David Pastrnak, Max Pacioretty, and Timo Meier. Seems like a reasonable bet to take Carter and hope that his percentages bounce back if he can still generate shots at an elite level.

#7 In the past month, Toronto Maple Leafs left winger Zach Hyman has tallied 17 points (7 G, 10 A) in 14 games. He is currently riding a six-game point streak during which he has nine points (3 G, 6 A) and the encouraging sign for Hyman is, in addition to the fact that he’s playing with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on one of the league’s most dangerous lines, is that his shot rates are climbing. Last season, he averaged 2.08 shots per game. In the first 27 games this season, 2.56 per game, and in the past month, 2.86 shots per game.

#8 Boston Bruins right winger Craig Smith was thought to be one of the best value free agent signings last summer and he started out all right, with four points (2 G, 2 A) in the first five games, but then he started to slump, and went through a 25-game stretch during which he had just seven points (4 G, 3 A) as Boston struggled to score. He recently got bumped up to play on the top line with Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron for a little while and Smith has rallied with 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in his past nine games. Smith has since moved back to the second line, where he is skating with David Krejci and newly acquired Taylor Hall which should be a good opportunity for Smith to have a productive finish to the season.

SAN JOSE, CA - MARCH 29: Minnesota Wild left wing Kevin Fiala (22) takes a shot during the San Jose Sharks game versus the Minnesota Wild on March 29, 2021, at SAP Center at San Jose in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Matt Cohen/Icon Sportswire)

#9 After a brilliant finish in 2019-2020, when he scored 26 points (14 G, 12 A) in the last 18 games, Minnesota Wild right winger Kevin Fiala was facing elevated expectations in 2021. While he has been able to generate shots, Fiala has had a hard time scoring and in his first 22 games of the season, had 11 points (8 G, 3 A) despite putting 73 shots on goal. In the past month, he has started to get the bounces; he has 14 points (6 G, 8 A) and 45 shots on goal in 14 games. Sometimes it takes some patience but if a player can create chances, they start to go in eventually.

#10 Before he was traded from the Ottawa Senators to the Boston Bruins, defenseman Mike Reilly was already having the best season of his career. He had already set a career high with 19 points, all assists, in 40 games, but he really started to turn his career around with the move to Ottawa last season. Since the start of last season, Dylan DeMelo is the only player to play more than 300 5-on-5 minutes for the Senators and have better shot and expected goal differentials than Reilly. Of course, the Senators were still outscored with Reilly on the ice because of a .907 save percentage during 5-on-5 play. Going to a Boston team that has a need for him to play a lot but also has a stronger defensive team structure should bring positive results.

#11 Ottawa Senators right winger Connor Brown has scored a goal in eight straight games. The last time someone had a longer goal-scoring streak in the National Hockey League was in 1997 when Teemu Selanne had an 11-game streak. Brown is getting some good fortune, but he is creating chances by shooting the puck. He has 25 shots on goal during those eight games (3.13 per game) after he had 69 shots in 35 games (1.97 per game) before the streak started.

#12 Detroit Red Wings left winger Adam Erne has made the most of his opportunity to play a significant role on a rebuilding team. He is not a star but in the past 19 games, the 25-year-old winger has 12 points (9 G, 3 A) and 41 shots on goal. In the 17 games before that, Erne had 5 points (2 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal. As an added bonus, Erne is a hitter, with 67 in 36 games, which starts to make his case in terms of fantasy value.

#13 The Arizona Coyotes recently called up left winger Michael Bunting from the American Hockey League, where he had 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 16 games. The 25-year-old was a fourth-round pick in 2014 and while he had been a solid American Hockey League player, Bunting had played just five NHL games prior to this season. Since getting promoted, he has seven points (6 G, 1 A) in eight games and is averaging 17:48 of ice time since arriving in the NHL. The Coyotes have two forwards, center Christian Dvorak and right winger Conor Garland, that average more ice time per game this season.

#14 Calgary Flames center Mikael Backlund has performed well, even as the team around him seems to be crumbling. Since Darryl Sutter took over behind the bench, Backlund has 13 points (4 G, 9 A) and 43 shots on goal in 15 games. For the season, he leads all Flames forwards in shot attempts, shots, and expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play.

#15 I know that Kirill Kaprizov has been the surefire Calder Trophy winner since the first couple of weeks of the season but what about Dallas Stars left winger Jason Robertson? He has 22 points (9 G, 13 A) and 66 shots on goal in the past 22 games and now has 29 points in 36 games, leaving him five points behind Kaprizov in four fewer games.

#16 It’s not easy to find goaltending value at this point of the season but Bruins rookie Jeremy Swayman does offer some potential. With Tukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak out, the Bruins have turned to the 22-year-old from Alaska who played three seasons at the University of Maine before posting a .933 save percentage in his first nine AHL games. He has three wins and a .926 save percentage in his first four starts for Boston.

#17 Tampa Bay’s secondary scoring is taking a hit recently. Center Anthony Cirelli has no points and 10 shots on goal in the past nine games. Alex Killorn has zero points and 15 shots on goal in the past nine games. Tyler Johnson has three assists and 14 shots on goal in the past 11 games.

#18 Good thing the Lightning have Ross Colton, the NHL leader with 2.75 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play (minimum 100 minutes). The next closest to Colton are Buffalo’s Rasmus Asplund (2.07), Toronto’s Auston Matthews (1.76), Montreal’s Josh Anderson (1.64), and Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen (1.53).

#19 San Jose Sharks rookie defenseman Mario Ferraro has a respectable 14 points (1 G, 13 A) in 41 games but is starting to creep into fantasy relevance because he is a hitter. Ferraro has 53 hits in his past 13 games (4.1 per game).

#20 It may not mean much, given how awful the Sabres have been this season, but Brandon Montour was leading Buffalo’s defensemen in points, shot attempts, shot, and expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. The Florida Panthers could use at least some of that to help offset the season-ending injury to Aaron Ekblad.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

SCOUCHING: Whatever Happened To .. Mario Ferraro

Will Scouch — Fri, 19 Feb 2021 18:44:43 +0000

Scouching - NR (Projection: None) | McKeens - 121

ISS - N/A | Future Considerations - 72 | TSN - 81 | NHL CSS 78NA

This edition of “Whatever Happened To…” is a little bit of a change of pace. We’re going to examine a player that has quickly outperformed their draft slot in the years since being selected, exploring exactly what it was that stood out at draft time, and what has evolved between then and now. It can be tough to identify recently drafted players who have already outperformed a low draft slot, and my access to video beyond 2016 is limited at best, but a name that jumped off the page to me was San Jose Sharks defenseman Mario Ferraro.

I’m a believer in production indicating general trends of where to look in a player, and for Ferraro, between his mid-September birthday, making him one of the oldest first time draft eligibles in 2017, and his lack of production at the USHL level, it’s easy to scratch your head when you see the Sharks making him their second selection at 38th in the 2017 NHL Draft. Ferraro has since led his college team to an NCAA championship game and cracked a retooling San Jose Sharks roster that clearly believes in his potential. My question, as always, is why? What is it about this player that led the Sharks to jump the gun and pick him up, and what does he bring to the game that has gotten him into an NHL lineup so quickly?

As always, I tracked seven games since draft time. I’ll also note that I was unable to track down NCAA footage for his freshman year with Amherst, so forgive the leap in time between his USHL season and the beginning of his sophomore NCAA campaign. The trends and changes in his game can still be identified, but I felt it was prudent to note the gap before getting into the article. The seven games tracked were as follows:

Nov 3, 2016 at Chicago Steel
Mar 17, 2017 at Fargo Force
Nov 10, 2018 at Providence College
Apr 13, 2019 vs. Minnesota-Duluth (NCAA Championship)
Oct 16, 2019 vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Feb 1, 2020 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Jan 28, 2021 at Colorado Avalanche

Right from the start, Ferraro jumped out as a player who loved to play bigger than he was. There was a rawness to his game in Game 1 that stuck out. He was chasing physical play often to his own detriment, and Chicago managed to get five of eight defensive transitions past him with control. This isn’t the end of the world, but much of it could be traced to Ferraro relying on trying to hit everything that moves without considering the ramifications of being put out of position. He faced 34 dangerous attempts against per 60 5v5 minutes which is not ideal, and a total of 83 shot attempts against per 60, largely driven of an overly simplistic approach to defensive play. With the focus too much on the body, Ferraro wasn’t preventing pucks from landing on trailing forward sticks, and his lateral mobility limited his ability to effectively press forecheckers against the boards in transition to cut off play.

Ferraro came out of the draft advertised as an offensive defenseman, but I didn’t get that read from looking at his 5v5 game. His passing in game 1 was not noteworthy, and often created more issues than it solved. He handed over possession almost 40% of the time, often driven off of poor vision to make simple passes to linemates under pressure, or hesitating for valuable time with space, and sending a pass to nobody in particular. He did show strong pivoting ability to transition from forwards to backwards skating and did show an ability to temporarily shake off forecheckers and create lanes to run a breakout, but his ability to permanently escape that pressure wasn’t there. This isn’t a deal breaker but as he was in this performance, there wasn’t much evidence of a true offensive weapon, at least not at 5v5.

Game 1 may have highlighted some key issues with Ferraro leading to being a bit lower on lists in the 2017 draft, but there was one trend that would be blatantly obvious every game. He clearly had his head in the right place on almost every shift and worked hard to earn everything he got. To many, that is a valuable trait in a young player. While his ability to generate power and speed in a straight line was not noteworthy, he moved his feet and applied pressure to opponents on retrievals to at least make their decisions more difficult. Far too often I’ll see mobile players taking the foot off the gas on retrievals, giving opponents valuable time to read the ice and find a linemate to create a cycle. Ferraro also showed flashes of reliable positioning defensively, able to impose himself in front of the net, covering dangerous areas and stepping in when necessary. Abandoning that area of the ice when the time wasn’t right to do so was an issue as mentioned before, but as a coach, it would be a matter of working with him to pick his spots better and play a safer style in his own end to make a more reliable defensive player in more areas than just chasing hits.

Game 1 Takeaway: It was clear what could draw a team to Ferraro. His work rate and defensive instincts were there, even if the results were less than desirable in those areas. There were flashes of multi-layered defense, but you want to see more of that out of him rather than flying around the ice trying to hit anyone with the puck. There were signs that with more experience, the fundamental tools of using his brain, stick, and body together to be an effective defender, Ferraro had potential to be a good lockdown defenseman, especially if his puck play could simplify and quicken over time.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Physical-Evolution.mp4

A clear evolution in Ferraro’s approach to physical play, improving body positioning over hit chasing.

Game 2 jumps to the end of the USHL season and already there are signs of improvement on paper. His 62.5% DCZT% improved to a remarkable 21.4% and stayed around that level through the rest of my tracking. His rate of dangerous shot attempts against dropped from 34 per 60 5v5 minutes to 22.4. His team’s dangerous offense dropped from 18.9 dangerous attempts per 60 5v5 minutes to 8.95, largely driving Ferraro’s abysmal 28.6% DSAT% in this game. The issues around Ferraro’s evasive skill and puck movement were still apparent, and a 42% Pass% showed that. He was losing pucks when moving his feet to escape pressure, but in open ice, his ability to move and identify passing lanes to drive offensive transitions were on display once in a while.

Ferraro was still clearly refining his game to pick his spots better, but his ability to apply pressure to fledgling breakouts in the offensive zone was more apparent, establishing body positioning much more effectively and applying pressure that focused on removing the puck from the player and maintaining offensive pressure much more than blasting the opponent to Saturn and potentially causing dangerous breakouts. His trademark hard work was on display, and there were improvements to his ability to win races on retrievals. What happened when that puck was on his stick was still quite hit-or-miss, but when he kept his decisions quick and simple, he was effective. Ferraro was a player who seemed to show that the stronger he got on his feet, and the more he was able to rely on using his stick defensively and then going for physical pressure, the more reliable he could be away from the puck. He’s a rambunctious player on retrievals and when trying to break down board cycles, and while he showed a few shaky moments with his gap management, giving opponents far too much time, this can often be a shortcoming in many defensemen. He still was able to make life more difficult for opponents and seem to overcome his lack of true mobility, reach and strength through admirable hard work and pressure in multiple areas of the ice.

This was his last game I tracked before the draft, so at this point, what’s my takeaway in this limited sample? He definitely wouldn’t be a player I’d label as an “offensive defenseman”, at least not at 5v5, but his pivot ability, work ethic, and improvement in his defensive results over the year certainly would be something of interest. His results were lacklustre, but being about 50/50 on offensive transitions, and improving to the DCZT% he registered would certainly be amongst the best in the data I likely would’ve tracked. Any defenseman who can prevent control on 15 of 20 defensive transitions is a defenseman I’m interested in, even if their shooting differentials are poor. He’s a clear case of “when he gets involved where he’s comfortable, he does well”, but the overall results elsewhere aren’t great. Usually this is a hint that the team around him might have been an issue, but his puck management, especially under pressure would still have given me pause, even at 38th overall where he was drafted. Looking at the names available, there are still some that I believe are developing with tools I would’ve preferred, but Ferraro is the one playing 20+ minutes in the NHL, so clearly this ability to play strong defense is valuable to NHL teams.

Game 2 Takeaway: Some promising improvements, but some issues remain. His puck management still needs simplification, but that simplification was on display and on the way. His work ethic is still there, but he was applying it in more intelligent ways away from the puck. Clear improvements in his patience and defensive methods led him to being more reliable and effective, translating to an exceptional defensive transition performance.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Passing-Tendencies.mp4

A compilation of Ferraro’s issues making quick pass decisions leading to turnovers that still persist at times in the NHL

We jump forward quite a bit to Ferraro’s sophomore season, and his stat line has significantly improved. He completed 80% of his passes, maintained control on 6/9 offensive transitions and prevented control on 8/9 defensive transitions. Just an outstanding performance overall, but his shooting metrics were the worst performance of his I tracked overall, with a 23.8% SAT% and an absolutely brutal 12.5% DSAT. His team managed just one dangerous shot attempt, but he also faced 33.8 dangerous attempts against per 60 5v5 minutes, on par with his results in Game 1. If anything, this is evidence that looking solely at shot metrics when judging individual talent can be a tricky exercise requiring more context.

Ferraro showed impressive improvements in the single area I felt needed improvement: simplicity. Right off the bat, he’s playing a bit more intelligently with his positioning in the neutral zone, pasting himself in a forecheckers zone of influence ready with his stick to break up passes, and if need be, step in to apply physical pressure. When play turns around, he had much better awareness of linemates, able to put pucks off the boards to find simple outlet options rather than relying on his own feet and hands to escape pressure and quarterback a rush. There’s no shame in being a defender who can defuse pressure rather than completely change the flow of the game, and Ferraro is clearly working within his perfectly reasonable limitations here.

I talk about pace of play a lot and Ferraro still did still show some instincts away from the puck that led to the higher rates of dangerous attempts against in this game. On multiple occasions I noted him chasing the puck in the defensive zone far too high near the blueline while Providence forwards feasted on the open ice left behind. Again, this is something a coach could and likely did work on with him, as his HDSATA rates were never anywhere near where they were in this game in my sample.

While Ferraro’s original instinct to crush absolutely everything has been reined in, it certainly doesn’t mean improvements to strength on his frame wouldn’t lead to him simply erasing opponents on numerous occasions. This strength also translated in tandem with his work ethic to be much more reliable in quick adaptation scenarios. He was pinching in the offensive zone a little more than I had seen before, but loose pucks high in the offensive zone weren’t as much of an issue for him to chase down to maintain offensive pressure. There were still issues generating enough speed to quarterback an offensive rush on his own stick, so over time, further simplification of his game to make quicker passing decisions moving pucks felt necessary, but again, his work ethic and dependability away from the puck were on display against Providence.

Game 3 Takeaway: Simply outstanding transition results, a clear improvement in his passing decisions, and clear improvements in the area of body strength, but previous issues regarding puck skill, especially at high work rates remain, leading me to believe that Ferraro was still settling into a defense-first mindset, but when dialed into that mindset, he was extremely effective in multiple areas of the game.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Defensive-Positioning.mp4

Ferraro’s sense of positioning and responsibility away from the puck in the defensive zone came a ways over the years. Valuable seconds with open net-front opponents were cut down significantly over time.

I felt it was worthwhile to track Ferraro’s performance in the 2019 NCAA Ice Hockey Championship game against Minnesota-Duluth. It was an unfortunate game for UMass, and a good indicator of what high, effect high pressure hockey might have on Ferraro’s game. It wasn’t so much a poor performance from Ferraro, especially in the areas where he dominates on defensive transitions (a 16.7% DCZT% is outstanding), but rather, Minnesota-Duluth put up an absolutely overwhelming performance and shut the Minutemen out to win a championship. Funnily enough, Ferraro’s DSAT% of 37.5% was slightly better than any of the previous four games on record, and his DSATA/60 wasn’t particularly poor. The issues largely surrounded Duluth’s ability to read Amherst’s breakouts like a book and close of pass attempts constantly to continue applying pressure to UMass. Ferraro completed just 18 of a remarkable 33 pass attempts, and lost possession on almost two thirds of all offensive transition attempts, his worst to this point.

All that having been said, it’s undeniable that Ferraro’s strength improvements have coincided with his approach to the game to make him a reliable defensive player. When involved in physical encounters, he’s able to free up his stick and continue pressuring the puck, he trails opponents in the defensive zone, rarely jumping the gun and abandoning his partner as he was in the Providence game. He was taking advantage of lollygagging opponents on retrievals, earning his results through his trademark work ethic. There were improvements to his skill at high pace, running a nice rush through the neutral zone driven through smart positioning to pick off an opposing rush. Even in situations where he’s adapting to pressure, where he used to lose control of the puck, he thinks quickly and shovels the puck to teammates.

There are clear improvements to Ferraro thinking on his toes quickly and covering ice in the neutral zone more effectively. Early in tracking, he was chasing pure physical play, but his style has gradually grown more dynamic, focused on mobility and play with his stick, with physical play still being a strong talent in his back pocket. There were numerous passing lanes where Ferraro would emerge from nowhere to simply break up transitions. He may not have been moving pucks to linemates in these situations every time, but these instincts and results are clear indicators of what I’d call a “prevent” defenseman. His ability to simply force the opponent to regroup and reset an offense is a valuable trait, even if there are other areas that remain an issue. He can still panic with the puck under little pressure, and lose track of forecheckers, giving them valuable space, but this seems to be on the decline over time.

Game 4 Takeaway: While the game was a bit of a disaster for UMass, Ferraro showed strong improvements utilizing his improving fundamentals with his natural mindset around the game. He’s working hard, but working hard with more strength and power on his frame. He’s playing physically, but more focused on the puck and removing players from play effectively rather than trying to plaster players along the boards with no regard for the consequences. His passing vision is simplifying, but is still a work in progress, and his defensive reliability with regards to his positioning improved at the NCAA level over his game against Providence. This was his last NCAA game, and his last game outside the NHL and I can see why. Although another year at college might have been worthwhile to iron out some inconsistencies and build on his offensive transition game, but his defensive abilities were and have been at an extremely high level, and the Sharks must have recognized the value in that area.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/OZ-Pressure.mp4

Ferraro continuously shows more and more confidence with picking his spots to step up at the offensive blueline to maintain offensive pressure.

Game 5 was Ferraro’s seventh NHL game, so shortcomings in his transition to the NHL could be forgivable, but his results were quite positive overall. An OCZT% and DCZT% combination of 50% and 38.8% respectively is rock solid for a rookie defenseman, especially one with zero AHL experience. 13 5v5 minutes is not a low workload either, so the Sharks and their staff clearly recognized a valuable defender immediately. His pass% of 62.5% isn’t awful at the NHL level, but his 50% DSAT% was the best I tracked up to this point.

The main area I picked up on, positive or negative, was his puck movement. He clearly is still adjusting to the pace of the NHL game, with moments of panic and hesitation deep in the defensive zone with multiple options available. Settling pucks and orienting himself has been an issue in the past, and higher pace will always expose issues like this. While his strength and power improved to be very notable in the NCAA games I tracked, and his skating in a straight line took steps, it doesn’t seem to be much more than “okay” at the NHL level in this game. He seemed to be biting off more than he could chew quarterbacking offensive rushes, trying to attack the neutral zone with speed and skill that just wasn’t good enough to keep NHL defenses guessing. Again, this isn’t necessarily a negative, as Ferraro’s game always felt more successful in the defensive area, so adjusting to push that style of play at higher levels of play can take time as he tries to push his limits to know where he is and isn’t comfortable. This below average power and speed generation also hampered his retrieval ability, which was part of the reason his DCZT% was a bit more inflated than prior games. NHL players are fast, and many have the work rate Ferraro clearly showed in every previous sample.

He landed a primary assist in this game, which was not registered in the stat sheets I could find, but he definitely shot a puck that went in off a tip in the offensive zone, so that’s nice. I don’t think there’s much of a shooting threat out of Ferraro, as this was the only non-USHL game he played with four individual shot attempts, and his total sample of 10.51 iLDSAT/60 is nothing particularly massive for a defenseman, but points are points, and he still generated one here!

Settling pucks was an issue a few times at this rate of play, but again, that could be something that comes with experience. He often stayed cool under pressure when things weren’t going his way, being able to avert disaster and escape that pressure in some way. The natural ability to pressure opponents both in open ice and along the boards was on display all over the ice. Conservative positioning in the neutral zone, pouncing on loose pucks, and using his mobility to pressure opponents were areas that needed to translate from college for him, and they clearly did.

Game 5 Takeaway: Considering Ferraro hadn’t played more than 10 NHL games at this point, a lot of the positives he showed in this game were very encouraging, and the downsides he showed could be tied to adjusting to a much different level of play than he is used to. A player who showed improvements in the NCAA with his mobility, defensive play, and skill was pushing his envelope in the NHL to his detriment a bit too much, but not in a way that felt impossible to rectify. Overall a pretty impressive game where he often showcased diverse defensive talents, calmness under pressure, and a dependability that NHL teams certainly would latch onto in a young defenseman.

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Ferraro increasingly relied on positioning and anticipation over physical play through the neutral zone, keeping things simpler and more effective.

Jumping forward to February 2020 before the dark times, Ferraro faced off against the future Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning. This game was absolutely fascinating, and seemed to solidify exactly the kind of defenseman Ferraro could become. His offensive transition involvement fell to just one completed offensive zone entry, but in my view, that’s a good thing. His attempted passes decreased significantly, but his defensive workload grew, and his DCZT% improved to 21.43%. All around huge improvements since his game against Carolina. His ability to establish strong positioning, rely on stick-first defending with physical imposition following, and his calm defense-first mentality to defuse pressure was on display. His NCAA tendency to abandon the front of the net at times has nearly evaporated, and the Sharks were able to keep all but one of the 12 shot attempts they faced to the perimeter of the ice, and Ferraro factored into that.

It was a quieter game overall, but for Ferraro, that’s where I feel he’s always been most comfortable. Maximizing his potential through hard work and intelligent puck-focused defense, with physical play as his ace in the hole isn’t the most attractive style of play, but it’s effective. His ability to establish body positioning between the puck and the opponent, and his ability to move around open ice to cover space and retrieve pucks are repeatable defensive tactics that have solidified his role in the NHL. When his play relied on speed generation against some of the world’s best like say, Nikita Kucherov, he was on the wrong side of play, but nobody is perfect, and the expectations for Ferraro probably shouldn’t be so high as to be a perfect defenseman against a player of Kucherov’s calibre, especially as a rookie fresh out of college.

Ferraro isn’t huge, but he’s already showing himself as a good example that size is just an asset that makes certain parts of the game easier, but is no guarantee of success. He wraps himself around forecheckers and hounds them along the boards, forcing them into decisions they don’t want to make, and with more skilled and speedy players on the ice with him, Ferraro’s play enables them to think more about offensive play rather than worrying about their defensive coverage.

The only questionable hole in his game that still stands is his play with the puck. The time to process a decision with the puck has decreased, and he isn’t inviting nearly as much pressure on himself, nor is he biting off more than he’s capable of in the offensive sense, but his fundamental ability to make those decisions quickly and to identify the safest option and execute that option is still a work in progress. A few great defensive plays were undermined by poor passing without enough strength behind the passes to get to their targets, especially in the defensive zone. One poor attempt here and there in the wrong situation can lead to dangerous attempts against, but on the upside, his ability to recover from these mistakes and rely on his off-puck defense again provided good coverage for those issues.

Game 6 Takeaway: Clear, NHL-level improvements overall. A quieter game in a good way, Ferraro is settling into a defensive role that is focused on effective transition defense, and strong positional defensive zone play thriving off his work ethic and strength improvements. Completing more of those first passes in the defensive zone would go a long way to improving his on-ice shot attempt impact, but his impact defensively is blatantly apparent, and won’t show up on score sheets at the end of the game.

The 2020-21 season led to significant increases in Ferraro’s ice time, paired with Erik Karlsson and currently sits third in total ice time among their defenders. Let me first say that pairing Ferraro with the style of defender that Erik Karlsson represents is exactly the right idea at this point. Karlsson still has great confidence with the puck in transition through the neutral zone and is a great outlet for putting shots on net, but oh my goodness are there blatant problems with Erik Karlsson in 2021 that made Ferraro’s defensive impact much less noticeable. Karlsson in the defensive zone outside of using his stick to free up pucks was porous at best. His mobility is nowhere near what it used to be. I was a Karlsson truther for a very long time, but watching him paired with Ferraro was like watching the game evolve into the 2020s in fast motion. Luckily the Sharks have a daring, exciting offensive defenseman in Ryan Merkley developing in the AHL, and he is a player who I could easily see being a great offset for Ferraro’s defensive style. The point is, I look at Mario Ferraro’s 18.2% DSAT% and see him doing everything he can to prevent defensive entries with a 20% DCZT%, and positioning himself to avoid dangerous attempts as best he can. His partner on the other hand… well, his partner wasn’t much help.

Ferraro again had a game with just one attempted offensive transition, but again, I didn’t feel it was a bad thing. “Get the puck to Erik Karlsson” is a perfectly reasonable breakout strategy, and it worked far more often than not. The Colorado Avalanche are a legitimate juggernaut, and on his first shift, Ferraro had a great retrieval establishing body positioning on Gabriel Landeskog to prevent an entry, and quickly executed a pass attempt along the boards that led to a defensive exit. Later in the game he did the exact same thing to Nate MacKinnon. It didn’t matter who he was dealing with; he just went out and played some dang defense. Forcing Colorado to reset their offense in the neutral zone and repeating the process is a strategy that can work, so long as players like Ferraro are on the ice.

In my view, quickness and mobility are an absolute must for any defenseman. I don’t care if you’re 5’6” or 6’6”. The NHL game is fast, because everyone on the ice is fast. You have to move fast and think fast if you’re going to keep up. Close support of linemates is also vital to identifying and creating open space to start counterattacks, and Ferraro showed these instincts often, supporting his partner on his defensive entries and getting pucks to safety effectively. His conservative play on retrievals was visible, making quick shifts and movements to get into open ice and start breakouts. At times the panic set in, but his pass% exploded to 80% on 21 attempts, driven largely by the simplifications in his game. His rush offense game is largely gone in favor of a defensive hard worker who plays a fearless and diverse defensive style that often completely shut down a Colorado Avalanche team as best he could.

Game 7 Takeaway: Mario Ferraro the NHL defenseman seems to have arrived. Erik Karlsson the NHL defenseman seems to be doing the opposite. Not sure what else to say. As much as I love my memories of him over the last 10 years, I hate to say that injuries and the evolution of the game seem to have caught up with him. That was legitimately my strongest takeaway from this game, but Ferraro clearly settling into a solid role and looking comfortable in that role is great to see.

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Ferraro’s defensive zone pressure started off excellent and remained so. Relentless work ethic to apply pressure and close out opposing offenses.

So, What Happened?

As is tradition, three points of diagnosis for what I saw in Mario Ferraro over the years:

The Sharks identified a defender that can try a bit more offense than you think he can pull off but one who could be harnessed into a strong defensive player.
To quote Torbjörn the Engineer: “Hard Work Pays Off!”
Slow refinements to settle his game into a reliable defense-first player without losing his work ethic and mobility lead to a useful, if imperfect NHL defender.

Mario Ferraro is a perfect example of how far hard work can take a hockey player, especially in the eyes of an NHL team. His offensive game in the USHL was on display a bit more than in the NCAA and NHL I suppose, but it was immediately apparent that his pace, speed, passing vision and skill weren’t exactly promising enough to potential translate to the next level. What was clear was his defensive play. He was unrefined, unreliable, and inconsistent defensively in Game 1, but his work ethic and intensity level were quickly leveraged into being a more reliable defensive player very quickly. His ability to use his mobility to be a conservatively positioned defender capable of closing off defensive transitions in a variety of situations rather than as a puck rushing quarterback is a perfectly reasonable shift in his game over the years. His play with the puck can still be quite hit or miss, but his ability to cover his tracks and quickly reset defensively is reliable and notable. The San Jose Sharks are a team that is struggling, and as such, names like Ferraro will get more and more ice time to offset the declining play of older veterans, but he hasn’t looked entirely out of place in a top four role with the team. He shows great determination along with a diverse set of defensive skills and tendencies away from the puck that should take him a long way. I don’t expect Ferraro to win Norris Trophies in his career, and I don’t expect him to score a ton of points, but as a true, modern defensive defenseman similar to Alexander Romanov, there’s a lot to like with Ferraro.

What did I learn? It’s always enticing to look at production in defenseman and latch on as a measure of future success, but it isn’t always the right approach. Production only points you in the right direction of positive play as a functional unit, but it doesn’t point you in the direction of actual defensive talent. With Ferraro, his ability to clog defensive breakouts, gain body positioning, lead with his stick and follow through with his body all lead to him being a rock solid defensive player. His pass percentages improved in the NHL over time, but there were still issues with quick decisions that weren’t executed optimally, and his offensive transition game has all but disappeared. With more experience, the passing ideally improves, and his game feels at it’s best when he’s playing with a defender who can engage offensively and move pucks with more skill and pace than Ferraro can while Ferraro monitors open defensive ice looking to stop potential entries.

All of these defensive traits in tandem are great NHL building blocks to work with, and if his passing game does improve, the points will naturally follow as other teammates finish the job. For now, my read is that Ferraro is a perfectly fine second pair defensive defenseman who you can throw out on penalty kills to chew intense defensive minutes. Is there anything wrong with that? Absolutely not, and for a guy drafted in 2017 to come all this way, landing himself on a pair with Erik Karlsson four seasons later, the Sharks took a chance early on this guy and the bet already seems to be paying off. A player who has his job because his team is bad, he is not. He’s a legitimate defensive defender who has evolved steadily over the years to rely on mobility, intelligence and pure determination to likely be a foundation of the Sharks’ next generation of young talent.

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San Jose Sharks 2019-20 Prospect Review: Top 20

Sat, 14 Sep 2019 13:10:26 +0000

As a team that is always in the midst of contention, the Sharks have long been in the habit of trading away draft picks as well as prospects in order to strengthen their current NHL roster and keep their window of contention open just that much wider. Think the recent trades for Erik Karlsson and Evander Kane and remember that there were others.

To illustrate this point further, they have not had a full complement of seven draft picks since 2015 – coincidentally their last year not in the playoff picture – and of their two first rounders in the four drafts since then, one (Josh Norris, 2017) was traded away in the Karlsson trade.

Compounding the lack of picks in the San Jose pipeline, a number of the players chosen have not panned out and while it is too early to place the bust label on many of them, it is fair to say that all too many of the Sharks’ recent picks have not trended in the right direction as far as their development has been concerned.

Even at the time of drafting a number of these players, it seemed clear that they were taking flyers on long shots, players who had aspects to their game to recommend them, but also had red flags. Think of 2018 pick Jasper Weatherby’s great numbers in the BCHL, but also his more advanced age. Or think of 2017 pick Jake McGrew’s performance as a teen in Southern California, but also that he missed his entire draft year to injury. 2018 pick Zachary Emond, a netminder, showed promise when he played, but he was a backup. Or think of 2015 second rounder Jeremy Roy. A smart and poised two-way defenseman but with a big knee injury already on his resume. More followed.

To help supplement a system lacking picks, the Sharks have scoured the free agent market for additional prospects. Of the 48 players currently defined as “prospects” in the San Jose system, an eye-catching 17 were brought into the system as free agents. Mostly of the undrafted sort, although a few had been previously selected by other teams at the draft and either never signed, or, in one case, signed but never received a second contract and is still prospect-eligible.

While free agent additions can always add depth to any system, and the hockey world is full of late bloomers who make legit careers for themselves, the downside is that these players were passed over for a reason. Sometimes similar reasons as the long shot draftees I discussed a couple of paragraphs above, and sometimes others.

Like with many of the Sharks’ long shot draft picks, many of the free agent signings will not pan out as full time NHLers. And of those that do, most will be playing on the bottom half of the lineup. Even with those caveats in mind, the gambit is thus far a positive one for this organization. Five of the 20 players listed here were acquired as free agents, including two netminders who aim to follow in current NHL starter Martin Jones’ footsteps, as he, too, entered the professional ranks as a free agent signee. -Ryan Wagman

San Jose Sharks center Antti Suomela (40) (Photo by Nick Turchiaro/Icon Sportswire)

1 Ryan Merkley, D (21^st overall, 2018. Last Year: 2) One of the most polarizing prospects on the planet, Merkley can dazzle with his skating ability and offensive talents, but can frustrate with his on ice composure and defensive commitment. Not even a trade from Guelph to Peterborough could alleviate those concerns. Merkley is competitive and plays the game with a chip on his shoulder. At times, when things do not go according to plan, his competitive nature turns to frustration that is expressed in negative ways on the ice. However, Merkley is extremely talented. His four way mobility is among the best of any defensive prospect, as he uses his agility to create both passing and shooting lanes. He is a dynamic puck carrier who can have a very large impact on the game. As such, patience is required on the part of San Jose and their development coaches. Merkley may always be a high risk, high reward defender, but in the right environment he could thrive as a primary puck mover and powerplay quarterback who can elevate the offensive play of those around him. - BO

2 Sasha Chmelevski, C (185^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 5) Chmelevski is a very pro ready prospect because of how he has been able to round out his game over the course of his OHL career. He is the type of forward who can excel in any situation and this versatility will make him an NHL player sooner rather than later. His best asset might be his shot release, which is lightning quick. But he is more than just a goal scorer, as he processes the game very well and is especially dangerous in transition with his ability to make quick decisions with the puck. His skating will probably need to continue to improve in order for him to hit his high end potential as a top six forward at the NHL level. But at the very worst, he seems like a safe bet to be a steady middle six option for San Jose, perhaps as early as the coming NHL season. - BO

3 Yegor Spiridonov, C/LW (108^th overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) Spiridonov had a good season in Russia, scoring almost a point a game in the Russian junior league and playing more than 20 games on the international stage with the U18 national team, including at the Gretzky Hlinka Cup and the WU18. He was one of the top scorers for his team at the U18s, where he made a strong impression that most likely convinced the Sharks to take him with a relatively high pick. The Magnitogorsk native is a solid two-way center with good size and with a good knack for playing hard along the boards. He has also good hands and solid skates, that allow him to protect the puck while in the offensive zone. Spiridonov is a good passer and a decent scorer, but his top quality is his two-way ability. Hopefully, he will get some pro experience next year. - ASR

4 Dylan Gambrell, C (60^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 3) An fast and highly intelligent center, Gambrell’s versatility and playmaking make him the prototypical middle-six pivot the Sharks need for the future. He possesses the sensational top speed and plus edgework necessary to drive past defenders, and his intelligence and hockey sense make him a lethal playmaker. The accuracy of his wrist shot can be a weapon on the power play and in transition, though he is more of a facilitator. Gambrell -- with his great maturity and presence on defense -- projects more as a depth center and penalty-killing maestro than anything else, as his shot and vision are solid, but not top-six quality. That fact can be worrisome out of a former second-rounder and near point-per-game AHL player, but that is where his game is at right now. - TD

5 Ivan Chekhovich, LW (212^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 9) The QMJHL’s second-leading scorer is a sniper of the highest order. His 43 goals were beaten by teammate Nathan Légaré by two, but the Russian winger has an excellent wrister with a big sweeping motion. His four playoff points tied for second-best on the Drakkar in their disappointing seven-game loss in the opening round. Chekhovich turned that into a positive, with a strong end of the season with the Barracuda. It was the second year in a row that he joined the pro squad at the end of the year, and impressed both times. Chekhovich’s skating is powerful, and he pairs it with good edgework. Like most young forwards, he needs to get bigger and stronger, and he needs work away from the puck, but if his offensive potential continues to flourish at the AHL level, he is an NHL triggerman waiting to strike in San Jose. - MS

6 Noah Gregor, C (111^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 4) Playing in the WHL as a 20 year old you need to dominate the league to show you have the tools to make it to the pro game. More often than not Gregor showed that, although some nights he was inconsistent with his effort. What he excels at is a speed game where he can go at defenders with the puck. He is a very good puck handler who can shoot the puck hard and with good accuracy. He is a bit too small to be called a “power forward” but he is strong and is willing to take the puck to the net. He projects as a guy who plays bottom six minutes with some penalty kill time. - VG

7 Joachim Blichfeld, RW (210^th overall, 2016. Last Year: Not ranked) Blichfeld capped off his WHL career by putting up a whopping 53 goals and 114 points in 68 games for the Winterhawks. He was a real standout for Portland, and also impressed on the international stage with Denmark in two previous WJCs. Blichfeld is a natural scorer with very good offensive instincts, has a great shot, and plays a pretty good all round game. He will take his game up to the AHL as he will skate for the Barracudas this season, giving him a good taste at the professional level where he should be able to translate his game to a higher level of play. He will start as bottom six forward, and could move up to a top six role if he settles in and produces even a portion of his WHL production.- KO

8 Jonathan Dahlen, LW/C (42^nd overall, 2016 [Ottawa]. Last Year: 5 [Vancouver]) With crazy quick hands and the hockey IQ to put them to use on the attack, Dahlen has an exciting game that packs a punch in his small frame. He is an expert playmaker with a pair of scintillating hands and the lateral mobility to play up his otherwise sluggish skating speed, and is becoming more comfortable with unleashing his speedy shot. A predator on the forecheck, the 21-year-old can become a very good energy line player and depth scorer in time, but there are questions to be had on his work ethic and effort level, as he is already on his third organization, and his departure from Vancouver was an ugly one. If he shows well in training camp, he could be in contention for an NHL roster spot this fall. - TD

9 Antti Suomela, C (Undrafted free agent, signed Jun. 6, 2018. Last Year: 11) At the end of the 2017-18 NHL campaign, a small bidding war over Suomela, the Liiga scoring champion that season, was waged by a multitude of stateside organizations. The hype was justified, but as the 2018-19 season went forward, we saw how poorly the raw, fascinating skill of the 25-year-old translated to the North American game at the NHL level. His speed and skill were on display early in the season, but he ate up healthy scratches and wound up in the AHL by December. He still has the potential to be a top-six forward; a lethal skater and often deadly setup man, Suomela can contribute in many ways, even without the puck, as his anticipation for where the play is flowing is unreal. With some NHL spots up for grabs in San Jose this season, he could be the guy to count on for depth scoring. - TD

10 Josef Korenar, G (Unsigned free agent, signed Jul. 13, 2017. Last Year: Not ranked) Imagine being a 21-year-old unsigned free agent who effectively stole the starting job for a postseason-qualified AHL team, in spite of minimal pro experience beforehand; that is what Josef Korenar did in 2018-19, starring for the AHL San Jose Barracuda and exhibiting the potential to be the Sharks’ goaltender of the future. The AHL All-Star showed otherworldly smarts and play-reading vision in his first full year in the pros, complimenting a highly athletic and controlled style in the crease. His rebound control can be spotty, as his tool selection still needs some work, but that is a teachable quality. Expect him to get the bulk of starts with the Barracuda in 2019-20, with a non-zero chance of an NHL appearance after the troublesome years of netminders Martin Jones and Aaron Dell last season. -TD

11 Mario Ferraro, D (49^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 6) Always playing second fiddle to his superstar collegiate teammate Cale Makar, Ferraro could have returned as the big man on campus now that Makar has turned pro. Instead, Ferraro is taking his own creative, puck moving game to the pros as well. Although undersized, he plays with tremendous energy, while not neglecting his duties in his own zone. One of three Minutemen to wear the C last year, he leads by example with a strong point shot and attention to detail in his own end, allowing him to be used on both special teams’ units. There are still some raw elements to Ferraro’s game, but his strong collection of tools might allow him to play as high as the second pairing, as he is the type for whom the total package may be better than the sum of their parts. - RW

12 Artemi Knyazev, D (48^th overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) Knyazev got the green light from Saugeneens’ coach Yanick Jean a lot in his first North American season, and he impressed offensively from the back end. His 34 points were second best among blueliners on his team, and the leader was an overager. The Chicoutimi team struggled to score at times, and Knyazev was a factor when they did put the puck in the net. He is an offence-first defender, who skates very well and covers a lot of ice for a smaller-sized player. Not only fast, he is agile and reaches top speed quickly. He can start or finish the offence, as proven by his great first pass and his 13 goals on the season. Knyazev is still a bit of a project, and will need to grow, but he has the foundation to be a solid powerplay contributor and speedy defender at the NHL level. - MS

13 Dillon Hamaliuk, LW (55^th overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) After starting the season very strong, Hamaliuk suffered a serious knee injury as a result of a knee on knee on hit that limited him to 31 games last season. He did put up 11 goals and 26 points in 32 games in that span, and played a very dominant physical game. He is your prototypical power forward, who also plays with a lot of speed and energy. He has a great shot, strong net presence, and plays a solid two-way game. His injury really affected his draft status, as he would have been a possible first round pick. Hamaliuk should have a career year after being moved to Kelowna in the offseason. With the Rockets hosting the Memorial Cup, he will be showcased and put in the spotlight where he should flourish. He projects to be a power forward with top six potential, if he should prove fully recovered with no loss to his skating ability. - KO

14 Andrew Shortridge, G (Undrafted free agent, signed Apr. 3, 2019. Last Year: IE) Shortridge is a 6-4” goalie who hails from Anchorage, Alaska. He just finished up a very successful three-year run with Quinnipiac University and was voted the ECAC Goaltender of the Year (Ken Dryden Award) and was also named as a Richter Award Finalist last season; he had a career-high and NCAA best .940 save percentage and a good run in the playoffs to boot. He is good at making that first save and gobbling up the puck. He is smart, he anticipates well and tracks the puck very well in traffic. Shortridge is also very athletic and can make the big saves that eventually win games. As he is thin at 185 pounds, he needs to get stronger before he can move beyond the Barracuda. - RC

15 Karlis Cukste, D (130^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 16) After four years in North America, the Latvian import seems to have grown accustomed to the style and pace of play. The high penalty minute totals of his freshman year at Quinnipiac are a thing of a past, while his offensive impact has increased. He lacks any true impact skills, but he is a fine skater and excels at skating the puck out of trouble. Cukste plays a fine two-way game, not bringing much in the way of flash, but playing steadily at both ends and keeping unforced errors to a minimum. He is expected to return to school for a final season, this time wearing the A on his chest, but the Sharks should be making clear that they will offer him a contract upon the completion of his collegiate eligibility. He has NHL upside. - RW

16 Jayden Halbgewachs, LW/C (Undrafted free agent, signed Dec. 28, 2017. Last Year: 12) Undrafted and signed by the Sharks near the midway mark of his electric, 129-point 2017-18 season with WHL Moose Jaw, the former junior scoring champion showed flashes of brilliance in his first pro year, but on the flip side, an utter lack of consistency and assertiveness. His elite positioning away from the puck, nifty wrist shot, and slippery hands make Halbgewachs a sneaky killer on offense. He loves to dangle through traffic and set up below the hash marks, where his intelligence and passing skill come into play, but his undersized, 5-8” frame, inability to beat defenders due to a lack of speed, and defensive insufficiencies make him a frustrating player to watch. He can still be a skilled depth scorer at the NHL level, but not without major upgrades in his game. - TD

17 Scott Reedy, C/RW (102^nd overall, 2017. Last Year: 15) When you see Reedy at his best, he almost seems dynamic. He has great size, eye catching speed, and can be a possession machine, creating zone entries and maintaining the puck even under physical duress. The tools are certainly there for him to be a legitimate contributor at the highest level. The problem is that he has been regressing – at a slow rate, but regression all the same – since his year with the USNTDP U17 squad. At that time, he was receiving cameos with the U18 team and looking like the next big thing. But Reedy underwhelmed in his draft year and now through two seasons with the Golden Gophers, he has not surpassed seven goals in a season and his assist rate has fallen. He still has a chance to play in a bottom six role, but he needs to step it up to reach even that level. - RW

18 Jeremy Roy, D (31^st overall, 2015. Last Year: 7) Roy’s career to this point, even dating back to his junior days, has been defined by injuries. It is very difficult to get into any kind of developmental rhythm when your body is failing you, but the potential for him to be an impact NHL defenseman is still there, just with a grain of salt. His smarts and puck skills scream big-minute NHL blueliner, while his size helps sustain a solid package of three-zone reliability and potency. He is not a very good skater, but has active feet and decent agility to play up his skating. Maybe the 22-year-old who has never played in an NHL game is a bust, but consider that the 58 games Roy played with AHL San Jose are the most he has laced up for in one season since his 2013-14 season in the QMJHL. Injuries have plagued him, but he is building health and strength and could still have an NHL future. - TD

19 Nick DeSimone, D (Undrafted free agent, signed Mar. 30, 2017. Last Year: 17) In terms of raw skill, there are not many players in the Sharks farm system that would outclass DeSimone. An offensively-oriented right-handed blueliner, he is aggressive at all times, uses his lanky, 6-2” frame to get inside position on the puck, and possesses the surprisingly quick wheels capable of blowing by defenders. With his blazing shot and craftiness with the puck, the Union College product became a mainstay on the Barracuda power play over the course of the 2018-19 campaign. Of course, raw skill does not just up and make you a great player, and the 24-year-old is a case study on that. Lacking defensive discipline and good decision-making in his own zone, he can be someone that drags his defense partner down and has his team playing unnecessary minutes in the defensive zone. – TD

20 Alexander True, C (Undrafted free agent, signed Jul. 18, 2018. Last Year: not ranked) An undrafted forward signed to an entry-level contract last year, True made the Sharks’ decision to put him on the NHL books a great one with a breakout year with AHL San Jose. The lanky 22-year-old formed into somewhat of a power forward threat in the top minor league last season, posting a career high in points that dates back into his WHL days (66-24-31-55). The Danish hybrid forward plays on both sides of the special teams, drives even-strength offense at will, and creates plays for his teammates with his intense cycle game. He is a subpar skater in almost every fashion, but can play a decent forechecking/depth scoring role in the NHL if he works on his shooting and defensive discipline. - TD