martin brodeur – McKeen's Hockey

Fantasy Hockey Mailbag: The Long December?

Chris Wassel — Mon, 01 Dec 2014 23:38:06 +0000

Today and really the entire holiday weekend has been a tough for hockey writers everywhere with the news of what came out on Twitter late last night. It is an unfortunate lesson that we have to learn. However, we slowly try to trudge onward. Unfortunately the week was a bit slow but we still did get some good questions in. Thanksgiving and Black Friday often are a holiday weekend where hockey takes a back seat.

When you think about it, there is always that question that irks you at some point during the year. Naturally it only took until December 1st to hit that breaking point. Here are our questions today from the mailbag.

Fantasy Hockey Mailbag

What do you think of the Martin Brodeur signing? What kind of fantasy value do you expect him to have?

Here we go! The Brodeur question has been one that has plagued fantasy hockey scribes and hockey writers alike for the last several months. When you get down to it, St. Louis and Minnesota seemed fairly likely destinations given their goalie history. Minnesota seemed to make the most sense because their goalies could never stay healthy. There was the Josh Harding issue that is still there but no one expected Nik Backstrom to stay healthy at his age. Then that hot start by Darcy Kuemper just threw everything into a state of unexpected stability.

There were plenty of rumors to go around but in the end Martin Brodeur ended up in St. Louis over the weekend. With a knee injury sidelining Brian Elliott, the dots were all connected. It is very likely that Brodeur will sign on Tuesday as both sides appear to like what they see in each other. The question then becomes how many games does the iconic goalie play with Jake Allen considered to be the starter? Also, when does Elliott come back? Variables exist that we do not know the complete answers to necessarily.

The other problem is Ryan Miller was great in Buffalo and then struggled mightily in St. Louis after a hot start. He did rack up wins but is doing the same in Vancouver despite some not very impressive numbers. What the heck does this mean for Brodeur? The goalie can still handle the puck pretty well and can still make the saves for the most part. Can rest be balanced with play? If he is plugged in for say a third of the games, the former New Jersey Devils netminder could be very effective. Nobody really knows what he will do but Yahoo has buzzed for the guy. He has shot up from dead 0% to 12% in a matter of days. When he signs, that could easily double or triple, maybe more.

If you are looking for a goalie and desperate enough in deeper leagues, then Brodeur is your guy. Expect there to be risks and dicey games tossed in however. Let's take one more question.

When is the David Krejci train going to stop? Is he finally going to play later next week?

The answer is get back to me then. This has gone back and forth more times than multiple rides on the bumper cars. No one really knows what is going on and that may even include management. David Krejci will miss the entire West Coast trip and presumably a decision will be made after that.

He had flipped from DTD to playing to playing a few shifts to DTD to practicing then DTD then played then DTD and now IR. Did you get all that? I hope you did. It does seem a lot of players are just getting hurt during or right after they recover from something else. Artem Anisimov is out 2-3 months with a torn ab muscle as a glaring example and yes there will inevitably be others.

Just wait and see from the Boston beat before rushing to sneak Krejci back into your lineup. Do not go "Fools Rushing In" on this because it will not end well yet again. People hopefully have learned their lessons from oh, the last half dozen times.

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Good luck this week and do not forget to leave those questions @ChrisWasselTHW. See you next week!

Fantasy Hockey – 10 Things to Consider

Darren Kennedy — Mon, 30 Jun 2014 17:30:29 +0000

A piece where we look at 10 things from the wonderful world of fantasy hockey. If you’re a James Neal owner you may want to stop here and come back next week, when the wound isn’t so fresh.

James Neal lands in Nashville – may have to leave his “Real Deal” nickname in Pennsylvania

I wasn’t there, but I’m guessing they were partying in the streets of Nashville well into the wee hours of Friday night. Sure, Patric Hornqvist is a good player – he’s not James Neal. Twitter has been overflowing with heartbroken fantasy owners who thought they had entered the offeseason with a 26 year old, former 40 goal, 300 shot man as the cornerstone of their offence. Instead, they are left to wonder what exactly Neal will be as a Predator. The folks over at Penbrugh took an interesting look at how playing in Nashville impacts a player’s numbers. He’s leaving a situation in which he took virtually every even strength and powerplay shift with Evgeni Malkin for what, Mike Fisher? Colin Wilson? Pittsburgh had the 5^th best offence, compared to 19^th in Nashville. No matter what way you slice it this was essentially the worst case scenario. If you know of a panicked Neal owner in your pool, now may be a good time to send a text with “so man, what about Pominville plus?”

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Trying to predict Ryan Kesler’s future

Hard to believe he posted 40 goals as recently as 2010-11. Age is a fickle thing, and Kesler turns 30 in August. The move to Anaheim should provide an opportunity to produce at strong, but not elite levels. It’s very similar to the team Vancouver was a few years ago – two top offensive options driving the majority of scoring. If he can land a consistent spot alongside Perry and Getzlaf on the powerplay then there is a real chance he can break 20 goals and 50 points again. Last year he showed a renewed interest in shooting the puck (239, 2^nd highest total of his career), which bodes well for 2014-15. There may be some added buzz around Kesler in your league as a result of all this pre-draft media attention – it may be worth exploring a trade.

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A complex mathematical equation to determine Patric Hornqvist’s value

Used to be a Nashville Predator + now plays with Crosby and Malkin = you know what to do

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Free agency gets even more interesting - Christian Ehrhoff Buyout

Ehrhoff is becoming the latest player to find himself in the middle of a battle between traditional sports writers and the blogging community. There are some that point to his previous two seasons in Buffalo as an indication of decline. There is a great piece over at Canucks’ Army, showing that he may in fact be a Norris calibre blueliner. For me, if he ends up on one of the top 10 or 15 offensive teams there is a real chance he returns to 50 points like we saw in 2010-11. He’s an uber skilled guy that’s capable of playing top pairing minutes and quarterbacking a powerplay. His peripheral categories have seemed low in recent years, saddled with a brutal plus minus in Buffalo and unable to shoot as much as he did in Vancouver. But he’s shown in the past that 180+ shots is achievable, which would put him among the top 15 for defenceman. He’ll be a nice target as your number two guy on draft day.

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The ageless one

News is floating around that Vancouver may take a run at landing 36 year old Jarome Iginla. All three are a bit past their prime, but with a new coaching staff in place I’d love to see what Iginla and the Sedins could do over 82 games together. In the right situation he’ll once again be a threat for 30 goals and 30 assists, just make sure to slide him back a couple spots on your draft board - it’s not 2011 any more.

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Spezza's bad luck

There seems to be a prevailing notion that Spezza is poor defensively. While I’ll concede he isn’t “elite”, the numbers don’t paint the picture of someone who is abysmal. Last year he had a respectable Corsi For percentage of 52.3%, right in line with Ottawa’s overall number. Where he struggled was when it came to his Goals For percentage – when Spezza was on the ice Ottawa only scored 42.1% of the goals. The difference can be explained in large part by a horribly low PDO total (97.3), generally a proxy for “puck luck.” When we compare his PDO to that of Kyle Turris (103.6) we see a massive difference. Many have been quick to anoint Turris as the team’s new number one center, something that would worry me long-term. All of this is a long-winded way of saying Spezza is due for a bounce-back season in 2014-15. If he can land on fertile fantasy ground like St.Louis, and grow old with someone like Taranseko on his wing, than he may return to 25 goals, 75 points, and north of 200 shots. It’s a great time to buy-low on Jason.

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Niskanen and why secondary assists should scare you

We know from existing research that secondary assists are relatively unpredictable in hockey. There is a terrific post over at Broad Street Hockey explaining the details. What this means is that if a player posts gaudy offensive totals on the strength of many secondary assists, then you should probably anticipate regression in the coming year – enter Matt Niskanen. He ended 2013-14 with 26 secondary assists, the fourth highest total of any defencemen. There will be those predicting another step forward and close to 50 points – I won’t be one of them. He’ll have to work hard to break 40, especially if he lands on a significantly lower scoring squad via free agency.

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He’s old, but not THAT old – what to expect from Cammalleri

In free agency there always seems to be a tonne of value once you get past the BIG names. Cammalleri isn’t getting much hoopla this time around. Maybe it’s because he’s 32 years old, or has struggled with injuries and a bit of inconsistency the past few seasons. Whatever the case, he’s still a spectacular talent when it comes to piling up biscuits in the proverbial basket (now I’m getting hungry). His 26 goals in 63 games translates to a pro-rated 34 goals over a full season. Yes, he’s approaching an age when goal scorers generally decline sharply, but he should be a reasonable bet for around 25. If he can land on a contender where his plus minus stabilizes than I could foresee a return to 25-30-55 and 200 or more shots.

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Brodeur

It’s a name that has been synonymous with fantasy dominance the past two decades, but at 42 years old it’s probably time to forget about Brodeur in your pool. Speculation is that he may sign with Boston, which should in theory be a boon to his value. However, if the last four seasons are any indication (save percentage of .903, .908, .901, .901), he may no longer be fantasy relevant.

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Optimus Reim heading north?

With rumours that Winnipeg is interested in bringing in the soon-to-be former Maple Leaf we can all rejoice as Ondrej Pavelec’s reign as “starter you NEVER want to have on your fantasy team” comes to an inglorious end.

Darren Kennedy is a contributor for McKeen’s and Dobber Hockey. You can find him on twitter at @fantasyhockeydk.

NHL: Week 2 – Early Season Clues

Carl Lemelin — Mon, 28 Jan 2013 16:07:19 +0000

Week 2 Schedule Breakdown

Weekly look at the breakdown of home and road teams.

West	Home	Road	Total	East	Home	Road	Total
ANA	1	2	3	BOS	2	2	4
CBJ	1	3	4	BUF	2	2	4
CGY	0	2	2	CAR	1	2	3
CHI	3	0	3	FLA	2	1	3
COL	3	1	4	MTL	1	3	4
DAL	3	1	4	NJD	3	1	4
DET	1	2	3	NYI	2	1	3
EDM	3	1	4	NYR	1	2	3
LAK	1	2	3	OTT	2	2	4
MIN	1	2	3	PHI	2	1	3
NSH	3	0	3	PIT	2	2	4
PHX	1	3	4	TBL	0	3	3
SJS	0	3	3	TOR	1	2	3
STL	2	0	2	WPG	3	0	3
VAN	1	2	3	WSH	2	2	4

EARLY SEASON CLUES: KEY TO MINI-SEASON SUCCESS

If anyone you know told you they knew what to expect in this shortened NHL season, we suggest you never believe another word they ever utter. An air of uncertainty still prevails, but the most astute fantasy owners will gain an edge on their competition by deciphering the early indicators this young season has provided and then applying that knowledge in their roster strategy.

Being active and reactive is the key to success in this unusual 2013 season. Every roster move matters this much more in such a compact schedule. This week we offer a few observations from a hectic first week of action in the NHL (isn’t it amazing we can finally say that?) as they relate to the fantasy angle; then we highlight individual players who might have been off the radar before the season began but whose fantasy value just shot up because of what we now know.

1- Systems? What systems?: Fantasy owners (and fans in general) love offense, and offense is generated by chaos. Short five-day camps, players transitioning from international to North-American ice, roster turnover from last season, overall game-shape rust and lack of practice time will make it difficult on coaches to establish structure in their team’s game. Don’t expect this to change, at least not before the 20-game mark. Half the NHL teams (15) are scoring on 20% or more of their PP’s (compared to only 3 last season). Skaters from those first units should be on your starting rosters and goalies facing those units, regardless of reputation, should be benched.

2- Game-shape? What game-shape?: Remember all that talk about active vs. non-active players during the lock-out. Everyone was wondering if players who hadn’t seen competitive hockey action in over six months would be worse off than those playing in the AHL or in Europe. We already have a definitive answer: 11 of the current top 20 NHL scorers were inactive during the lock-out. Less structured hockey means skill and natural abilities trump overall conditioning (at least for elite offensive players). No need for over-analysis here: ride your horses whether they were active or driving their kids to school.

3- High turnover means less cohesion: Of the top 6 GAA teams, none have more than a 2-player turnover from last season among their top 9 forwards and top 4 defensemen, and 3 of those 6 have no turnover at all! Conversely, underperforming teams like Washington, the New-York Rangers, Phoenix and Calgary can partly attribute their defensive woes to higher turnover rates among their core group. With no guaranty of a quick recovery, you should avoid starting goalies from these squads (defensive skaters too, if your league tracks plus-minus).

4- Home, not-so-sweet home: A tightly knit schedule, intra-conference play exclusively, playoff-type intensity right off the bat and league parity are all factors that contributed to 18 of 30 visiting teams spoiling home openers to start 2013. Home advantage definitely ain’t what it used to be! It shouldn’t be a concern when you consider your weekly starting line-up.

WAIVER-WIRE MUST-HAVES

Martin Brodeur (G) - NJ: Many expected the surprise Cup finalists from last year to fall back to Earth this season. Losing their captain Zach Parise was going to be devastating. But the Peter DeBoer structure remains and players are seemingly still buying in. From all insider accounts, Brodeur is in the best shape he's been in years, and he's had a long off-season to rest. His anticipated decline will have to wait at least one more season.

Raphael Diaz (D) - MTL: Montreal's PP is back to its glory days of a couple of years back, currently 5th in the NHL. Why? Andrei Markov is healthy for the first time since then. It's that simple. He's the engine of that successful unit. Tomas Kaberle was his partner on the point when the season began, but the late-blooming Swiss has since supplanted the Czech veteran. Considering how dominant Diaz was in his home league during the lock-out (32-7-22-29), we expect he'll be a fixture, feeding the Russian General all season long.

Brian Gionta (RW) - MTL: Another beneficiary of the new life Markov has injected into the Canadiens' offense, Gionta is the best trigger man the Habs possess now that Max Pacioretty is out for a month (appendectomy). He is fully recovered from the biceps injury that limited him to 31 games last season. Expect a return to his customary consistent goal scoring pace and 0.7 PPG average.

Keith Aucoin (C) - NYI: All this pro journeyman ever needed was an opportunity in a top 6 role in the NHL and he's finally found the place in Long Island. The Isles are tied for fifth in GS/G and John Tavares hasn't even exploded yet. Aucoin has averaged an impressive 1.40 PPG over the past five years in the AHL and has produced every time he’s been called up to the NHL as a fourth liner. The circumstances are right this time around for him to stick and contribute significant offense in the Show.

West	Home	Road	Total	East	Home	Road	Total
ANA	1	2	3	BOS	2	2	4
CBJ	1	3	4	BUF	2	2	4
CGY	0	2	2	CAR	1	2	3
CHI	3	0	3	FLA	2	1	3
COL	3	1	4	MTL	1	3	4
DAL	3	1	4	NJD	3	1	4
DET	1	2	3	NYI	2	1	3
EDM	3	1	4	NYR	1	2	3
LAK	1	2	3	OTT	2	2	4
MIN	1	2	3	PHI	2	1	3
NSH	3	0	3	PIT	2	2	4
PHX	1	3	4	TBL	0	3	3
SJS	0	3	3	TOR	1	2	3
STL	2	0	2	WPG	3	0	3
VAN	1	2	3	WSH	2	2	4

West	Home	Road	Total	East	Home	Road	Total
ANA	1	2	3	BOS	2	2	4
CBJ	1	3	4	BUF	2	2	4
CGY	0	2	2	CAR	1	2	3
CHI	3	0	3	FLA	2	1	3
COL	3	1	4	MTL	1	3	4
DAL	3	1	4	NJD	3	1	4
DET	1	2	3	NYI	2	1	3
EDM	3	1	4	NYR	1	2	3
LAK	1	2	3	OTT	2	2	4
MIN	1	2	3	PHI	2	1	3
NSH	3	0	3	PIT	2	2	4
PHX	1	3	4	TBL	0	3	3
SJS	0	3	3	TOR	1	2	3
STL	2	0	2	WPG	3	0	3
VAN	1	2	3	WSH	2	2	4

West	Home	Road	Total	East	Home	Road	Total
ANA	1	2	3	BOS	2	2	4
CBJ	1	3	4	BUF	2	2	4
CGY	0	2	2	CAR	1	2	3
CHI	3	0	3	FLA	2	1	3
COL	3	1	4	MTL	1	3	4
DAL	3	1	4	NJD	3	1	4
DET	1	2	3	NYI	2	1	3
EDM	3	1	4	NYR	1	2	3
LAK	1	2	3	OTT	2	2	4
MIN	1	2	3	PHI	2	1	3
NSH	3	0	3	PIT	2	2	4
PHX	1	3	4	TBL	0	3	3
SJS	0	3	3	TOR	1	2	3
STL	2	0	2	WPG	3	0	3
VAN	1	2	3	WSH	2	2	4