Mathieu Joseph – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Oilers address their goaltending need, a Ducks rookie continues to surprise, Sam Bennett is back on track, and veterans Brock Nelson and Steven Stamkos are finding the net, plus so much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 20:50:35 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, the Oilers address their goaltending need, a Ducks rookie continues to surprise, Sam Bennett is back on track, and veterans Brock Nelson and Steven Stamkos are finding the net, plus so much more!

#1 The Edmonton Oilers have been dissatisfied with their goaltending and made a move to address it Friday, acquiring veteran netminder Tristan Jarry and prospect Samuel Poulin from the Pittsburgh Penguins for goaltender Stuart Skinner, defenceman Brett Kulak, and a second-round pick in 2029. Jarry is enjoying a bounce-back season with a .909 save percentage and gains fantasy value even by going to an Oilers team with a slightly worse record, because Edmonton should be able to provide more goal support and the Oilers are expected to have a better record than the Penguins. Skinner’s value is already at a low point, as his .891 save percentage wasn’t cutting it. He will likely share the crease with Arturs Silovs in Pittsburgh, as Jarry was, but that’s going to be a competition. Kulak has struggled this season but logged big minutes on the Oilers’ Stanley Cup runs the past two years, so if the Penguins want to flip him, they probably can. Poulin was a first-round pick in 2019 but hasn’t been able to crack the NHL lineup. He has two assists in 15 career games, but maybe he can get a fresh look in Edmonton.

#2 Anaheim Ducks right winger Beckett Sennecke has a tendency to sneak up on people. Even he was surprised when the Ducks drafted him third overall in 2024 and he didn’t enter this season with huge expectations. It seemed a positive sign that he made the team as a 19-year-old winger and if he could provide some secondary scoring, all the better. At this point, though, he has put up 14 points (4 G, 10 A) with 29 shots on goal in his past 13 games and his 26 points (10 G, 16 A) in 31 games leads all rookie scorers. Sennecke is working on a young and talented line with Cutter Gauthier and Mason McTavish.

#3 Florida Panthers playoff hero Sam Bennett struggled early in the season, managing five points (3 G, 2 A) through his first 18 games, but he has started to heat up since. In his past 12 games, Bennett has 15 points (6 G, 9 A) and 35 shots on goal, a huge contribution for a Panthers team that is missing Aleksander Barkov, so they desperately need Benett to play like he does in the postseason and, lately, that’s more like what the Panthers have been getting from him and he’s having success skating on a line with Carter Verhaeghe and Brad Marchand.

#4 When the Colorado Avalanche acquired centre Brock Nelson from the New York Islanders last season, they may not have loved the production they received, which included 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 19 regular season games before he added zero goals and four assists in seven playoff games. He started slowly this season, too, with five points (3 G, 2 A) and 24 shots on goal in his first 16 games. In his past 15 games, however, Nelson has put up 16 points (9 G, 7 A) with 28 shots on goal. That shot rate still has room for improvement, but Nelson is getting good results on a line with Gabriel Landeskog and Ross Colton.

#5 Moving to Nashville has not brought the best out of veteran sniper Steven Stamkos, but there are signs of life. He started this season with just two points (1 G, 1 A) and 30 shots on goal in 14 games. For a high-percentage finisher, he was obviously not going to keep scoring at a rate of one goal for every 30 shots on goal, but after scoring four goals against St. Louis on Thursday, he has 10 points (8 G, 2 A) with 25 shots on goal in his past eight games. He’s skating on a line with Ryan O’Reilly and Luke Evangelista, and they have helped the Predators to a 6-2 record in their past eight games.

#6 Utah Mammoth centre Logan Cooley suffered a lower-body injury that is going to keep him out for a couple of months, likely pushing his return until after the Olympic break. Cooley had 23 points (14 G, 9 A) in 29 games at the time of his injury, and now the Mammoth need to shuffle lines, so they have moved Nick Schmaltz into the top line centre role, while bumping J.J. Peterka up to play right wing on the No. 1 line.

#7 Ottawa Senators centre Shane Pinto is out for at least another week due to a lower-body injury suffered last week, knocking out a player who ranks third on the Senators with 12 goals this season. With Pinto out, Ridly Greig slides into the middle of the ice, and it creates room for David Perron to fill a top-nine role in the lineup.

#8 The Montreal Canadiens called up top goaltending prospect Jacob Fowler to make his NHL debut this week and, given the struggles of Samuel Montembeault this season, there could be opportunity knocking. A third-round pick in 2023, Fowler had a .932 save percentage in 74 games across two seasons at Boston College then finished last season with the Laval Rocket of the AHL. He started this season with a .919 save percentage in 15 games for the Rocket, earning his promotion, and Fowler stopped 36 of 38 shots to earn a 4-2 victory at Pittsburgh in his NHL debut. There is uncertainty in the Montreal crease right now, but Fowler might force his way into playing time.

#9 At 37 years old, he may not be peak Showtime anymore, but Detroit Red Wings right winger Patrick Kane can still play a valuable role for a team needing offence. Kane has 12 points (2 G, 10 A) and 31 shots on goal in his past 11 games, and he seems to have something good going with linemates Andrew Copp and Alex DeBrincat. Copp has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 11 shots on goal in his past five games, a relative burst of offence compared to how little he had been producing earlier in the season.

#10 The Pittsburgh Penguins have moved Tommy Novak to left wing on the top line with Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust, and the 28-year-old forward has produced eight points (2 G, 6 A) with 13 shots on goal in his past seven games. He had seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 29 shots on goal in 22 games before that, so it may not be easy to buy-in on Novak’s production, but if he’s getting a shot on Crosby’s wing, he’s at least worth considering as a short-term fix.

#11 New York Islanders captain Anders Lee had a four-point night in Thursday’s win over Anaheim, giving him seven points (3 G, 4 A) in his past five games and while he’s not the same threat that he has been in years past – his 15:32 of ice time per game is his lowest average since 2015-2016 – he is skating on a line with Mathew Barzal and Jean-Gabriel Pageau at even strength, and that’s a decent spot. The Islanders may need to do some line shuffling, however, as Bo Horvat left Thursday’s game with a lower-body injury.

#12 Staying with the Islanders, veteran defenceman Ryan Pulock is offering more value than he has in recent years. In his past eight games, Pulock has contributed seven points (1 G, 6 A) and 13 shots on goal, and he’s not really a power play factor, with only one of those points coming with the man advantage. He’s been renowned for his heavy shot from the point, ever since he arrived in the NHL, but topped out at 37 points in 82 games in 2017-2018, his second full season in the league. With 16 points in 32 games, Pulock is on pace for more this season.

#13 Veteran defenceman John Klingberg has a long track record of being able to provide offence, with six seasons of 40-plus points to his credit, but he has slowed down, in part due to injuries. However, he made progress in the playoffs with Edmonton last season and has a new opportunity with the San Jose Sharks this season and his offensive instincts work with San Jose’s aggressive approach. In his past nine games, Klingberg has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 12 shots on goal, averaging more than 21 minutes of ice time per game. He may not be a dream candidate for fantasy managers, but he is up to 12 points (5 G, 7 A) and 31 blocked shots in 23 games, which should generate some interest.

#14 There is a segment of the Toronto Maple Leafs fan base that is not entirely enamored with defenceman Morgan Rielly, and that’s fine, not everyone is going to like every player, but Rielly is a productive blueliner. He has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past seven games, giving him 23 points (5 G, 18 A) in 29 games this season. Only five of those 23 points are on the power play, though Rielly is on Toronto’s PP1 right now, so perhaps that is a path to continuing what is already solid offensive production.

#15 Philadelphia Flyers centre Christian Dvorak is getting an opportunity to play a bigger role with his new team and it’s starting to pay off for him. Dvorak has joined Trevor Zegras and Travis Konecny on the Flyers’ top line, and has five points (1 G, 4 A) and seven shots on goal in his past three games. Dvorak’s career high is 38 points, set in 2019-2020 when he was with Arizona, but has 21 points (7 G, 14 A) in 29 games this season, so he’s on pace to go well past that total. His ice time is up 1:39 per game over last season and if he continues with skilled linemates, Dvorak will ride that offensive wave to more fantasy appeal.

#16 Trying to shake up their lineup, the Winnipeg Jets moved Gabriel Vilardi off the first line and to the second line with Cole Perfetti and Vladislav Namestnikov. That movement shouldn’t be seen as an indictment of Vilardi’s play, however, as he has 13 points (8 G, 5 A) and 21 shots on goal in his past 11 games. He is scoring on 21.2 percent of his shots this season, which seems really high, except that in his previous two seasons with the Jets, his shooting percentage was 19.8 percent, so if there is going to be regression, it may not be by very much.

#17 Pittsburgh Penguins rookie centre Ben Kindel isn’t producing enough to have fantasy appeal just yet, with 10 points (7 G, 3 A) in 26 games but, with Evgeni Malkin out, Kindel is playing more than 18:30 per game over the past six contests and has a couple of goals but also has 28 shots on goal. That ability to generate shots at that rate makes Kindel very intriguing for the future and possibly even for later this season as he grows more comfortable playing in the best league in the world as an 18-year-old centre.

#18 Minnesota Wild right winger Mats Zuccarello is out with an upper-body injury, which is unfortunate since he missed the first month of the season with a lower-body injury. Zuccarello had 12 points (2 G, 10 A) and 29 shots on goal in 15 games before getting hurt and he joins Marco Rossi on the injured list, which means new linemates for Kirill Kaprizov. Right now, it’s rookie Danila Yurov and veteran Vladimir Tarasenko getting that chance. Yurov has five points (1 G, 4 A) in his past 10 games and Tarasenko has three points (1 G, 2 A) in his past two games, but that comes after a seven-game scoreless drought.

#19 New Jersey Devils winger Timo Meier is taking a leave from the team to deal with a family health matter. That is obviously not good news on a personal level, which is most important, and it does leave the Devils – already missing Jack Hughes – a little light up front. That creates a ripple effect in the Devils’ lineup, with Stefan Noesen moving to left wing on the top line and Paul Cotter to right wing on the second line. Noesen has just four points (1 G, 3 A) in 25 games this season but did have an assist and played a season-high 15:59 on Thursday as he is also getting time on New Jersey’s top power play unit.

#20 St. Louis Blues right winger Jordan Kyrou is week-to-week with a lower-body injury, and he’s already been enduring a rough season. After scoring 36 goals and 70 points last season, Kyrou has eight goals and 16 points in 28 games this season. In his absence, Mathieu Joseph moves into St. Louis’ top six, but he gets there with two assists and seven shots on goal in his past dozen games, so Joseph needs to take advantage of the opportunity being afforded to him.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – ST. LOUIS BLUES – Team Preview

Sat, 21 Sep 2024 16:00:50 +0000

_{ST. LOUIS, MO - APRIL10: St. Louis Blues left wing Pavel Buchnevich (89) as seen during a NHL game on April 10, 2024, between the Chicago Blackhawks and the St. Louis Blues in Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire)}

Even though the Blues performed better under head coach Drew Bannister than they did under his predecessor Craig Berube, the Blues finished with 92 points (43-33-6), which left them six points behind Vegas for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. Unfortunately, the Blues did not even deserve that much success and were saved by goaltending more than anything else. They ranked 29th in Corsi percentage (45.2%) and 30th in expected goals percentage (44.1%), so this was a team that was getting outshot and out-chanced on a routine basis. With 6.43 goals per 60 minutes on the power play, the Blues were tied for 25th. They ranked 16th with 7.57 goals against per 60 minutes of penalty killing. For all of those rankings which were mediocre or much worse, the Blues’ goaltending tandem of Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer combined for a .906 save percentage, which ranked sixth.

WHAT’S CHANGED? The Blues started the offseason by nibbling around with smaller deals, trading Kevin Hayes to Pittsburgh and adding the likes of Alexandre Texier, Radek Faksa, Mathieu Joseph, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, and veteran blueliner Ryan Suter. None of those players is going to make a huge impact on their own, but that is a significant roster overhaul that can change the mix. The Blues weren’t finished, though, because then they took a run at two restricted free agents from the Edmonton Oilers, signing defenceman Philip Broberg and winger Dylan Holloway to offer sheets, which were ultimately not matched. Broberg was the eighth pick in the 2019 Draft, and Holloway was the 14th pick in 2020. Neither of them could get regular playing time in Edmonton, so a fresh start could do them some good. Veteran defenceman Torey Krug has an arthritic ankle which could potentially keep him out all season and explains at least partly why the Blues were looking to add on defence.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Having missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, the Blues appear to be in rebuilding mode, though more like they are trying to rebuild on the fly rather than take it down to the studs and build from scratch. Thus, if they somehow squeaked into the playoffs, that would count as an on-ice victory for a roster that does not look like it will warrant a playoff spot. On the other hand, if the Blues fall out of the playoffs, they would be better off missing substantially so that they improve their lottery position, and that could mean making substantial trades because the team still has a lot of established vets in key roles.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Expectations already seem to be suitably low for the Blues, so this almost seems like a free season. If they miss the playoffs, by a lot, but maximize the trade value when dealing some of their veteran players, that would be a positive outcome in the long run. Where it could go wrong is if the team ends up finishing just outside the playoffs, just like they did in 2023-24, because it minimizes draft pick value and doesn’t give the team a real chance to trade away some of its more established players. Basically, a repeat of last season would be the wrong result for the Blues.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: This category is primed for left winger Jake Neighbours, a 22-year-old who scored 27 goals and 38 points last season, his first full season in the NHL. Neighbours has plenty of room to improve and while he might not score on 18.6% of his shots on goal again, he is also looking at the possibility of playing with Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou on the Blues’ top line as well as on the first power play unit. With Thomas setting up plays, Neighbours should be able to increase his shot rate and become a more sustainable offensive force.

FORWARD

Robert Thomas

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	30	62	92	1.12

The play of Robert Thomas was a bright spot in what was a chaotic season for the Blues, as he recorded career highs across the board. Most are familiar with his game at this point, he’s a high-end play-making center who is going to outscore a lot of his problems away from the puck. Some of those issues began to shore up this year, as his lines were a little more consistent with driving play and his new-found chemistry with Jake Neighbours was a nice development for the team. His minutes have skyrocketed the past couple of years, eclipsing the 20-minute mark which includes some penalty kill time now. Thomas is still a selective shooter, but his finishing has become more dangerous the past couple of years, looking to shoot more off the rush and poaching for breakaway opportunities more often now. He’s very creative with the routes he takes in the neutral zone, changing directions quickly and he’s one of the best at keeping defenders guessing. He is also one of the best in the league at getting the puck through the middle of the ice, delivering passes with a high level of velocity but also a lot of control so they can be one-timed easily. He can generate passing plays you typically only see on the power play at even strength. Look for him to post big numbers again this year with all his regular linemates coming back.

Jordan Kyrou

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	34	41	75	0.91

Facing heavy criticism from both fans and the coaching staff, Jordan Kyrou was someone who needed to round out his all-around game and last year was a good step forward in that regard. His boxcar stats weren’t as gaudy due to a small dip in power play production, but his lines usually won the five-on-five battle when he was on the ice. Kyrou’s own defensive game hadn’t changed much, but he was a little more conservative when handling the puck in the neutral zone, not always trying to dangle through traffic and deferring to his linemates when he needed to. He also got better at creating offence outside of just the fast break plays off the rush, doing a better job of winning pucks back in the offensive zone and becoming more than just a shooter for Thomas to setup. His season was the best example of how playing better defence sometimes means playing less defence in general. The question is whether it’s worth the trade-off if he’s creating less dangerous chances in transition. With his five-on-five scoring numbers staying pretty consistent, it’s hard to argue with the results. Kyrou still has the talent to be whatever player he wants, so it depends on which direction the new coaching staff leans and who they play him with. Berube gave him the freedom to be that lethal, free-wheeling player that made him such a special talent for the Blues. Last year, he was just as effective but in a completely different way. Finding the middle ground is what next year is all about.

Pavel Buchnevich

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	30	48	78	0.95

Maybe the most popular trade target at the deadline who ended up staying put, Buchnevich is back in St. Louis for six more years after signing a new deal in the off-season. It’s pretty obvious why so many teams were interested in him. He gives you size, skill and can excel as the driver of his line or as the third wheel in support. He was the calming presence on the Thomas’ line, often the middle man with connecting the dots to Kyrou or making a short pass to help setup a zone entry. His release and ability to get a lot of velocity on his shot without much room makes him borderline lethal. You can throw a puck in his general direction and there’s a good chance he will make something out of it. He is also one of the best “power kill” specialists in the league, playing heavy minutes on the Blues penalty kill and always looking to poach for offence. He is also coming off somewhat of a down season production-wise after riding a high shooting percentage in 2022-23, but he does so much outside of scoring it was an afterthought. Granted, it’s hard to believe a player like Buchnevich could ever fall into a shooting slump when you watch him play, but it’s just proof that it happens to everybody. Still the Blues best forward when it comes to all-around play and the one they rely on to calm the waters whenever he’s out there.

Brandon Saad

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	19	15	34	0.52

Somewhat flipping the paradigm of the player he was earlier in his career, Saad’s not the strong two-way player he once was. Last year, he was a pure goal-scorer. His 26 tallies were the most he scored since his 2016 season in Columbus, and he got them in a variety of different ways. The sneaky shot off the rush is still there at times, but Saad’s had to adapt as his speed and power have started to decline. Last year, it was all about getting to rebounds, finding sneaky ways to get himself open for one-timers and being the bumper guy in the slot on the power play. He was one of the Blues’ top forwards at producing scoring chances and a good chunk of them came off deflections or rebounds. His all-around game struggled, as the Blues were pushing the puck up-ice most of the time when Saad was out there, but he still managed to have a productive season with a revolving door of linemates. The goal-scoring might not be sustainable, but a year with more stability in who he plays with could give St. Louis some better results overall. The question for the Blues is how much Saad contributed to those play-driving results as opposed to his linemates, which is a tough riddle to crack given how many question marks they have on the roster.

Brayden Schenn

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	21	22	43	0.52

Reaching the 20-goal mark for the third year in a row was a modest feat for Brayden Schenn. The veteran pivot had his least productive season as a Blue and has been on a steady decline for a few years now. He’s never been one to carry the mail on his line, as he’s not the best at navigating through the neutral zone or retrieving pucks, so the revolving door of linemates didn’t do him any favors. Schenn scored on a high percentage of a limited number of shots by poaching for odd-man rushes or following up on plays to create most of his offence. Which the team can get by with but the Blues lack of a consistent second or third line made it more of a burden when taking Schenn’s play-driving struggles into account. It’s the type of offence you’re stuck with when your line is buried in your own zone. Schenn wasn’t the only cause of it, but five-on-five play-driving has never been his forte and the Blues didn’t have the horses to help him with it. A new glut of middle-six forwards have been brought in and the Blues will experiment to see who works best with Schenn. Which has been the story with him since Jaden Schwartz left.

Jake Neighbours

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	29	23	52	0.66

Jake Neighbours breakout season was a little surprising, mostly because of how it happened. Primarily a playmaker in juniors, the 22-year-old found his niche in the NHL as a goal-scorer and a net-front presence. His 27 goals were more than he scored at any level in his career, which includes his pre-WHL days. St. Louis is a team with no shortage of puck-carriers, so Neighbours had to adapt his game away from the puck to be a contributor. He proved to be a fast learner, doing an excellent job at getting to the net, following up his linemates and being a passing option for the Thomas’, Kapanens and Kyrous of the team. He did a fantastic job of following the play, getting himself open and finding soft spots around the net to score some lay-up goals. Repeating this will be tough, as his game was pretty one-dimensional. If he wasn’t scoring goals, he wasn’t getting on the scoresheet and the only other times he touched the puck were when he was helping on exits. That said, Neighbours has only scratched the surface of what he can do. He didn’t get a chance to show off the playmaking skill that got him drafted so high and was never trusted to be the driver of his line. There’s an opportunity for him to do more this coming year.

Kasperi Kapanen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
64	11	15	26	0.41

Most know what they’re getting with Kasperi Kapanen by now. A winger with blazing speed who isn’t going to score as many goals as you’d expect and not give you much else aside from that. Still, he’s a useful guy to have on the penalty kill to keep attackers on their toes, as he’s always a threat to go the other way shorthanded. He’s also a better playmaker than he gets credit for, as the high number of breakaways he gets makes you think he’s a shoot-first type of guy. He showed some decent chemistry setting up rookie Jake Neighbours in his breakout season and it was enough for the Blues to retain him for another year at a modest $1 million AAV. You always want more with Kapanen when you see his raw skills, but a lower-line guy with some offensive pop might be his ceiling. Finding more of a niche in a defensive or possession flipping game could be his ticket to staying in the league long-term. His skating is always going to make teams interested in what he can do and we’ve seen other fast players who struggled to become game-breakers mold themselves into solid checking line players to stay in the league. It’s hard to say if it’s too late for Kapanen to do this, but he has another chance with the Blues this year.

Mathieu Joseph

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	12	20	32	0.41

Acquired from Ottawa in a cost-cutting move, Joseph put up modest results in his first real chance in a consistent top six role. He only scored six goals and 35 points while flanking Claude Giroux and Tim Stutzle. For years, he showed a lot of skills that could have translated well in a bigger role. He showed excellent skills in transition in a bottom six role with Tampa Bay and carried that over during his time in Ottawa while struggling to produce with lesser linemates. Last year, he played a noticeably more conservative game, forechecking more and letting Ottawa’s more talented players do the puck-carrying. It led to Joseph having his best season to date boxcar wise, but he struggled to produce offence consistently, both in terms of goals and tilting the ice. Some of that was becoming more reliant on assists via puck touches rather than setting guys up or being directly involved in the play. Regardless, Ottawa elected to move on, and he has a chance to break into a similar role with the Blues. It’s a good chance for him, but also similar to where he was in Ottawa because the team has a gluttony of second/third liners and Joseph will need to do a lot to stand out from the pack. He has the speed and flashes of high-end skill going for him, but you can say the same about a few other players on the Blues roster. He does have the chance to play alongside his brother, though.

Alex Texier

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	11	14	25	0.31

The former Blue Jacket’s had a strange career. Brought in right before the team’s historic sweep of Tampa Bay in 2019, he is one of those players who has been around forever but doesn’t have a ton of NHL experience at the same time. Last year was his first real season, as he’s had stops on the injured list and played the 2022-23 season in Switzerland before returning to Columbus last year. He’s from France, but he fits the Swiss-Army Knife description, where he does a pretty good job if you need a guy who can shoot, pass, skate or forecheck at a decent level. He just doesn’t bring much high-end skill to the table and is a solid guy to fill out the middle of the roster if anything. Fits the Blues up-tempo style of play as a guy that loves to carry the puck and has decent enough speed to be a rush threat. Shooting has been wildly inconsistent over his career and will look to pass to keep a cycle going rather than look for a play to setup a goal. Should be a steady guy in the middle of the roster, although it’s very crowded in St. Louis.

DEFENCE

Colton Parayko

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	9	24	33	0.40

The last few years have been a journey for Parayko after recovering from back surgery and becoming “the guy” on a St. Louis blue line still looking for an Alex Pietrangelo replacement. Last year was the first time Parayko looked like a reliable placeholder for that spot, recording monster minutes again (23:52 a game) and giving them reliable results in that role. He played a strong game in his own zone alongside Nick Leddy and is still the Blues most stabilizing presence there. He’s someone you can count on to calm the water at even strength, as he does an excellent job of using his long reach to kill cycles and keep loose pucks away from the front of the net. Mobile enough to play man-to-man and cover for blown assignments if he needs to. The downside is that their game was pretty one-dimensional, as Parayko’s offence was limited to just breakouts and the occasional jump-in off the rush. This will likely be the case going forward on a St. Louis defence corps that is heavy on puck-movers and short on steadier players like Parayko. Sometimes being a great player is filling the role you need to instead of being the game-breaker, which is the situation Parayko is in now. With so many high-end defencemen across the league now, it’s easy to forget about him but his role in St. Louis does not go unappreciated.

Scott Perunovich

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	7	27	34	0.52

The NHL has been a tough learning curve for the Hobey Baker winner. Losing almost two seasons to shoulder and wrist injuries that required surgery, last year was his first real pro season at 25 years old. He struggled to get consistent playing time, both due to injury and trips to the press box while the Blues auditioned some of their other young defencemen instead. It’s been tough for him to make his mark as an offensive defencemen on a blue line that has a few of those already, but there is an opportunity for him to stick this year with Torey Krug possibly out for the season. He’s a similar player in terms of style, doing most of his work with the puck in the offensive zone and he’s probably the passer among the Blues current group of defencemen. Adapting to the NHL game is going to take some consistent playing time and practice, as he’s someone who will put up points given the opportunity. Learning how to deal with forecheck pressure and the speed of the game is the key to landing a full-time role.

Justin Faulk

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	10	35	45	0.61

Next year will be an adjustment for the veteran defenceman, as he will be without longtime partner Torey Krug. A minute-eater and all-situations player for his entire career, some of the miles started to show on Faulk last year, missing most of the latter half of the season with an injury. Inching closer to the 1000 game mark, his own playing style hasn’t changed much. He’s a stocky, bulky defenceman who is going to jump into the play when he gets the chance and give you a decent mobile option in a top four spot. His defensive game’s always been more of the high-risk variety, playing the man instead of the puck and attacking forwards directly, both on entries and in the defensive zone. While the high-risk nature of his game brings a lot of give-and-take, last year was a bit of an anomaly for him offensively. He scored only two goals despite regular power play time and he’s one of the better shooting defencemen in the league, regularly hitting the 10-goal mark. Expect that part of his game to bounce back. As for his five-on-five game, it will be interesting to see how he does with a new partner. Being matched with Krug was a different look for him, as he was often paired with a stay-at-home guy in Carolina and Krug was the first time in a while he was paired with another puck-mover. They could give him a similar look in Perunovich or have him shepherd another young player like Matthew Kessel. He is in a good position to be a mentor type as the second-pair guy on the right side.

Nick Leddy

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	2	19	21	0.27

For years, Nick Leddy always looked like an offensive defenceman cast as a shutdown guy. His smooth skating, one-man breakout ability and endless cardio strength make him a perfect fit in the top four on paper, but the results have been all over the place everywhere he’s been in that role. Despite his raw skillset and how much coaches love him, teams bleed shots and scoring chances against when he is on the ice regardless of who he’s paired with or where he plays. Last year was no different. He puts up a similar stat line every year, isn’t going to give you much physically, but he’ll play his role and eat up minutes for you. Whether that changes with the Blues this year remains to be seen. He was Parayko’s running mate last year until the end of the season when Perunovich received an audition, and it could signal a potential changing of the guard. Still, Leddy is one of their proven options and the Blues know what they’re getting for better or worse.

GOAL

Joel Hofer

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
36	17	15	4	1	0.908	3.08

Jordan Binnington

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
46	21	19	6	3	0.909	2.91

The St. Louis Blues certainly can't fault veteran starter Jordan Binnington for their postseason absence this year, but he's not their main story heading into the 2024-25 season nonetheless. His impressive numbers last year, which saw him sit in the top half of the league's starters despite mediocre play up front, take a backseat when faced with the real story for the new season; Joel Hofer, the 23-year old prospect who served as the team's most recent 'next man up', dazzled with enough prominence that he's likely going to be the piece the Blues build around in the next couple of years.

Binnington and Hofer wrapped up the year with matching 0.913 raw save percentages, posting nearly identical stats when it came to performances relative to their expected goals metrics, quality starts, and relativE performances when up against the rest of the league. That kind of consistency in a tandem is impressive enough, but it looks even more stellar when considering just how little support the pair got from the defence in front of them - and just how little experience Hofer had to build upon throughout the year. You'd never be able to guess just how young he is from watching him play, though. Hofer's ability to avoid getting goaded into telegraphing his movements by opponents left them guessing even when trying to seize on defensive breakdowns. One season as a backup doesn't necessarily provide enough evidence for Hofer to take over from Binnington - and he doesn't necessarily need to, so long as Binnington continues to look good - but a more even split between the pair is likely in the cards moving forward to help with load management. And the changing of the guard likely won't happen this season, but it could be coming in the next few years.

NHL: DADOUN – THE WEEK AHEAD (February 12th to February 18th) – Washington fading in playoff race and faces tough questions – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 10 Feb 2024 18:37:42 +0000

Early this season, Washington seemed to be able to manufacture wins despite not looking great on paper. The Capitals had a 17-9-4 record through Dec. 21, but at that time they had a minus-8 goal differential. Washington was doing fine defensively, ranking 10th with 2.73 goals allowed per game, but it was 30th offensively, averaging just 2.43 goals per contest. Washington compensated for that by having one of the league’s best records in one-goal games (10-1-4).

The question at the time was if Washington’s success was mere smoke and mirrors. At this point, it’s fair to say that it was. The Capitals are now 22-20-7. They’re seven points back in the Wild Card race, which might not sound like much, but it’s a mountain to climb this late in the campaign. Meanwhile, their goal differential has gotten even worse, dropping to minus-36.

If Washington can’t find a way to turn things around soon, then the Capitals will need to consider retooling. What would look like, though? Trading Alexander Ovechkin is almost certainly a nonstarter. He’s not having that strong of a season anyway (11 goals and 33 points in 46 games) and at the age of 38, teams might be reluctant to take on his $9.5 million cap hit through 2025-26. Even if he was playing well, though, he’s the face of the franchise and has a no-movement clause, so there would be a lot of barriers to moving him.

TJ Oshie? His $5.75 million cap hit through 2024-25 likely would give contenders pause too. The 37-year-old has just eight goals and 12 points through 32 contests. Tom Wilson agreed to a seven-year, $45.5 million contract in August, so Washington probably won’t trade him, and Dylan Strome is signed to a $5 million cap hit through 2027-28. Meanwhile, Nicklas Backstrom is on the long-term injured reserve and isn’t likely to play again this season while Evgeny Kuznetsov is in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, so neither of them is likely to come up in serious trade conversations.

There are still a couple of players who might be dealt. Anthony Mantha’s 16 goals and 24 points in 45 outings isn’t good relative to his $5.7 million cap hit, but at least his contract ends at the end of this campaign, so there might be contenders willing to part with a pick for him if Washington retains half his remaining salary. Max Pacioretty has a goal and seven points in 14 contests since coming back from his Achilles injury. That’s not great, but there might still be a team interested in him as a secondary scorer and veteran presence.

Those kinds of moves won’t fundamentally change Washington, though, they’ll just leave the Capitals with minor consolation prizes for their lost season. At some point, though, Washington needs to decide if a larger rebuild is necessary. The Capitals are likely reluctant to go down that path while Ovechkin is still under contract, but the alternative might be added years of futility before finally beginning the process.

Anaheim Ducks – TUE @ MTL, THU @ OTT, SAT @ TOR

The Ducks will be in Canada next week, playing in Montreal on Tuesday, Ottawa on Thursday and Toronto on Saturday. The 26-15-8 Maple Leafs figure to be a tough adversary, but Montreal and Ottawa are far removed from the playoff picture.

Those upcoming two games against struggling opponents give Troy Terry an opportunity to extend his hot streak. The 26-year-old has recorded at least a point in six consecutive contests, totaling four goals and six assists. Adam Henrique has been on a run too, providing five goals and 14 points across his last 12 appearances, which gives him 15 goals and 33 points in 49 outings in 2023-24.

Pay special attention to Henrique because there’s a good chance he’ll get traded before the deadline. Granted, that’s not until March 8, but we’ve already seen a couple of major moves, so there’s no guarantee that teams looking to upgrade will wait before pulling the trigger. Especially with Henrique doing so well recently, Anaheim might be able to get a decent return for him. How that impacts Henrique remains to be seen. He’s averaging 17:16 of ice time with Anaheim, including 2:21 with the man advantage, and might not get that kind of role with a contender, which might hinder his fantasy value.

Another trade candidate with Anaheim is Jakob Silfverberg. The 33-year-old forward has struggled this campaign with just five goals and 13 points in 49 outings, but he’s shown some life recently, supplying three goals and five points over his last four appearances. It helps that he’s averaged 15:07 in that span, compared to 12:14 on the season.

Arizona Coyotes – MON @ PHI, WED VS MIN, FRI VS CAR, SUN @ COL

The Coyotes have a busy week ahead of them. It will start with a trip to Philadelphia on Monday, followed by a home stretch versus the Wild on Wednesday and Hurricanes on Friday. Finally, the Coyotes will head to Colorado to play the Avalanche on Sunday.

Although Arizona doesn’t have a back-to-back set next week, the busy schedule might still lead to Karel Vejmelka getting some work. He had a strong relief appearance Thursday, stopping the 28 Golden Knights shots he faced after Connor Ingram surrendered three goals on just six shots midway through the first frame. That strong performance is the exception, though. Vejmelka still has a 6-11-2 record, 3.33 GAA and .900 save percentage in 18 appearances in 2023-24. Ingram has been the better option with a 17-12-1 record, 2.69 GAA and .914 save percentage in 33 outings, but he’s now allowed at least three goals in each of his last three contests, so there’s an opening here for Vejmelka if he can take advantage of it.

Someone else with an opening is Jack McBain. He’s been all over the lineup this season, but recently the 24-year-old has featured on the top unit alongside Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz. McBain isn’t much of an offensive threat, scoring just six goals and 15 points through 34 games, so don’t get too excited, but it of course helps to be working alongside players of that caliber.

Especially with Clayton Keller being hot at the moment. He has eight goals and 15 points over his past 12 contests, bringing him up to 21 tallies and 46 points across 49 games.

Boston Bruins – TUE VS TBL, THU VS SEA, SAT VS LAK

The Bruins get to stay in Boston next week and will host the Lightning on Tuesday, the Kraken on Thursday and the Kings on Saturday. It’s not the easiest schedule, but Seattle isn’t in a playoff position and LA has been slumping for the better part of two months, so the potential is there for the Bruins to have a strong run.

Some teams lack any particular player who has stood out recently. That’s almost never the case for the Bruins. You can count on David Pastrnak to put on a show and, most recently, he’s provided three goals and eight points in four contests. He continues to be one of the league’s biggest stars with 33 goals and 75 points through 51 outings.

One player who isn’t as much of a sure thing is Pavel Zacha, but he’s been clicking lately, providing two goals and six points over his active four-game scoring streak. That brings him up to 12 goals and 33 points in 47 appearances this season.

Meanwhile, Brad Marchand has been quickly climbing up the goal-scoring list. He’s found the back of the net 12 times over his past 15 contests, giving him 25 markers and 51 points in 51 games. That puts him on pace to reach the 40-goal milestone for the first time, but his current hot streak has skewed those numbers and he’s a safer bet to finish with around 35 tallies.

Los Angeles Kings – TUE @ BUF, THU @ NJD, SAT @BOS, SUN @ PIT (BTB)

As noted above, LA has struggled lately, posting a 3-8-6 record over its past 17 outings. The Kings will attempt to rebound during a road trip that will take them to Buffalo on Tuesday, New Jersey on Thursday, Boston on Saturday and Pittsburgh on Sunday. Certainly not the easiest of schedules, but LA is one of the few teams set to play in four contests, so it’s still worthy of mention.

Maybe the Kings will get some help from Brandt Clarke, who was summoned from AHL Ontario on Thursday. He’s been fantastic in the minors, recording eight goals, 33 points and 35 PIM in 32 contests and figures to be a big part of LA’s long-term plans. It’s not clear what role he’ll have next week, but with the way things have been going for the Kings, they could stand to mix things up, and giving Clarke some responsibility would be one way to do that.

Alex Turcotte was also recalled Thursday. He had a goal and an assist in two games with LA during his previous stint and has recorded 24 points (seven goals) across 30 AHL appearances, so the 22-year-old might be helpful too.

Given the busy schedule, Cam Talbot is expected to get at least one opportunity to rebound over the next week. He had a 14-8-3 record, 2.10 GAA and .925 save percentage in 25 appearances through Jan. 2, but since then he’s lost his last seven contests while posting an ugly 4.62 GAA and .865 save percentage. He hasn’t played since Jan. 26, though, so perhaps the 36-year-old goaltender has had sufficient time off to step back and reset.

At the same time, David Rittich has done well, posting a 5-1-3 record, 2.09 GAA and .925 save percentage in 11 outings this season, which is part of the reason why he’s been able to wrestle the starting gig from Talbot. Even if Talbot rebounds, there’s a chance Rittich will stay busy, perhaps in a 1A and 1B situation. Certainly, this is a goaltending duo worth monitoring.

Montreal Canadiens – TUE VS ANA, THU @ NYR, SAT VS WAS

The Canadiens will host the Ducks on Tuesday, visit the Rangers on Thursday and conclude the week with a home match versus the Capitals on Saturday. New York is a tough adversary, but Anaheim and Washington aren’t in playoff positions.

Montreal’s standout forward recently has been Nick Suzuki, who has provided three goals and eight points during his active five-game scoring streak. The 24-year-old was limited to three assists across eight appearances from Jan. 4-18, but he’s been far more hit than miss this campaign, totaling 15 goals and 45 points through 50 contests.

Sean Monahan was having a strong season with Montreal too, but he was dealt to Winnipeg. The silver lining is that opened the door for Brandon Gignac to make his Canadiens debut Tuesday against Washington. Gignac logged 14:54 of ice time, including 0:32 on the power play. He didn’t record a point in that game, but the 26-year-old has 14 goals, 42 points and 36 PIM in 43 outings with AHL Laval this season, so if he continues to serve in a middle-six capacity while seeing time on the Canadiens’ second power-play unit, then he should have some offensive production going forward. Keep in mind that Montreal might not be done trading veterans. At the least, Tanner Pearson is likely to be shopped, and if that happens, the door might be opened to Gignac also serving a bigger role with the man advantage.

It’s safe to say Juraj Slafkovsky won’t be moved, though. Although the 19-year-old hasn’t been a major part of the Canadiens this year, supplying nine goals and 22 points across 50 contests, he is a big part of their long-term plans. He’s also seen an uptick in production recently, collecting five goals and seven points over his last eight games, so perhaps we’re seeing the early stages of a strong second half.

New Jersey Devils – MON VS SEA, TUE @ NAS (BTB), THU VS LAK, SAT VS PHI

New Jersey is gearing up for an eventful week. It will start by hosting the Kraken on Monday, then the Devils will play in Nashville on Tuesday before returning home to face the Kings on Thursday. They’ll conclude the week with a game against the Flyers on Saturday. New Jersey is the home team for that contest, but rather than it being played at Prudential Center, it will be an outdoor event at MetLife Stadium (the home of the New York Giants and New York Jets).

Injuries have held Jack Hughes back in 2023-24, but he returned from an upper-body issue Thursday, logging 20:24 of ice time, including 3:19 with the man advantage. If he can stay healthy, then Hughes adding 35-40 points over the Devils’ final 33 games is a reasonable hope.

Erik Haula might see his role diminish somewhat now that Hughes is back. Haula logged 15:40 on Thursday compared to an average of 17:40 from Jan. 6-Feb. 6 while the Devils were without Hughes. Haula, who had three goals and seven points in 10 outings during that stretch, might see his production decline as a result. He has 11 goals and 25 points in 43 appearances overall.

One forward who is likely to get a lot of work regardless of Hughes’ status is Jesper Bratt. The 25-year-old winger has certainly earned that privilege. He registered three assists Thursday to extend his scoring streak to six contests (four goals, nine points). Bratt’s up to 20 markers and 55 points through 49 outings in 2023-24.

Ottawa Senators – TUE VS CBJ, THU VS ANA, SAT VS CHI

The Senators aren’t having a great campaign, but they’ll be playing against some of the other teams at the bottom of the pack next week. They’ll host the Blue Jackets on Tuesday and the Ducks on Thursday before visiting the Blackhawks on Saturday.

Before that action starts, Anton Forsberg (groin) and Travis Hamonic (upper body) are set to return this Saturday versus Toronto. The Senators are expected to be without Jake Sanderson (lower body) against Toronto, though, and it remains to be seen if he’ll be available next week. If he can’t play, then Mathieu Joseph will likely find himself with a role on the power play again after averaging just 0:10 with the man advantage over Ottawa’s last seven contests. Joseph hasn’t recorded a power-play point this season, but he’s done well overall with eight goals and 23 points through 37 appearances, so this is a situation worth monitoring.

It will also be interesting to see if Forsberg’s return saps time away from starting goaltender Joonas Korpisalo. The No. 1 goaltender has left plenty to be desired this season with a 12-16-2 record, 3.38 GAA and .889 save percentage in 33 outings. However, Korpisalo has stepped up lately, posting a 4-1-2 record, 2.19 GAA and .912 save percentage across his past seven appearances. If he keeps that up, he should be able to hold Forsberg at bay, but if Korpisalo reverts back to his previous struggles, then Forsberg might play on a semi-regular basis down the stretch.

The Senators don’t have any blazing hot forward at the moment, but Shane Pinto has done well since returning from his 41-game suspension for sports wagering activities. He has two goals and four points in six contests and should continue to serve in a middle-six capacity as well as the first power-play unit going forward.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE VS STL, THU VS PHI, SAT VS ANA

The Maple Leafs will spend next week at home, hosting the Blues on Tuesday, the Flyers on Thursday and the Ducks on Saturday. That’s not the weakest of schedules, but it’s not a particularly difficult one either. St. Louis and Philadelphia are both in the middle to upper-middle of the pack while Anaheim ranks near the bottom.

Joseph Woll (ankle) still isn’t close to returning, so Ilya Samsonov and Martin Jones are still the team’s goaltending duo. Jones hasn’t started since Jan. 20, but Samsonov has surrendered seven goals on 60 shots (.883 save percentage) over his past two contests, so Jones might get another shot next week. Both of those goaltenders have had great stretches, but also some incredibly rough patches, so they’re risks going forward.

One player who hasn’t dealt with such a roller coaster of a campaign is Auston Matthews. The 26-year-old has eight goals and 13 points in eight contests, but what’s remarkable is he’s not especially hot, that’s practically just the norm for him. Through 48 games, he’s supplied 41 tallies and 61 points and is likely to continue to find the back of the net at a reliable pace as long as he stays healthy. His continued health is critical to the team. While it’s true that Toronto has other superstars, he’s personally scored a staggering 24.3 percent of the team’s entire goals.

In terms of the supporting cast, Toronto doesn’t have anyone doing particularly well at present. The only players to accumulate at least three points over the Leafs’ last five contests are the Big Four (Matthews, John Tavares, Mitchell Marner and William Nylander) and their top defenseman, Morgan Rielly. Matthew Knies is getting a turn on the Matthews’ line, though, so perhaps that will help the 21-year-old forward.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Oilers missing McDavid – Woll pushing for playing time – McTavish and Sandheim stepping up – Plus much, much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 27 Oct 2023 15:39:45 +0000

DALLAS, TX - OCTOBER 26: Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Joseph Woll (60) blocks a shot during the game between the Dallas Stars and the Toronto Maple Leafs on October 26, 2023 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the Oilers are reeling and are now missing McDavid. Shane Pinto’s suspension, Joseph Woll pushing for playing time, Mason McTavish ready to make the leap in his second season, Travis Sanheim stepping up for the Flyers and more.

#1 The season could not have started much worse for the Edmonton Oilers, preseason Stanley Cup favourites who have a 1-5-1 record and are missing superstar centre Connor McDavid for 1-2 weeks due to an upper-body injury. McDavid had eight points (2 G, 6 A) in five games before getting hurt and the Oilers have had to juggle lines, moving Ryan Nugent-Hopkins into the second line centre spot while Leon Draisaitl fills in for McDavid as the first line centre. The Oilers have been outscored 10-4 in two losses without McDavid and will hope to get on the right track with the season’s first installment of the Battle of Alberta, the Heritage Classic outdoor game, which goes Sunday in Edmonton.

#2 Ottawa Senators centre Shane Pinto, still without a contract as a restricted free agent, was suspended for 41 games due to activities related to sports betting. That would appear to solidify Ridly Greig’s position as the third-line centre behind Tim Stutzle and Josh Norris. Greig, who is eligible for the Calder Trophy, has five points (1 G, 4 A) with 16 shots on goal in seven games. Another player whose future in Ottawa should be more secure is winger Mathieu Joseph, who had been rumoured to be on the trade block at times – ostensibly in order to clear cap space to sign Pinto – but Joseph has started the season with six points (3 G, 3 A) and 13 shots on goal in seven games.

#3 It has not taken long, but Toronto Maple Leafs rookie Joseph Woll is challenging Ilya Samsonov for time in Toronto’s crease. Woll, the 25-year-old netminder, has a .961 save percentage in four appearances and that will get anyone a longer look in net, but with Samsonov delivering a meagre .831 save percentage, it is an easy choice for the Maple Leafs to give Woll more opportunities. Samsonov played well for Toronto last season, but the unpredictable nature of the position means that, unless a team has a surefire No. 1, the job should be up for grabs so that the goaltender that is playing best can earn more playing time.

#4 Second-year Anaheim Ducks centre Mason McTavish scored in overtime Thursday to cap Anaheim’s surprising late comeback win in Boston, handing the Bruins their first loss of the season. The 20-year-old now has six points (3 G, 3 A) with 16 shots on goal in seven games and with the Ducks playing more competitively than might have been anticipated, it’s all the more reason to expect McTavish to obliterate his rookie season production of 43 points (17 G, 26 A).

#5 While there has been plenty of early season fanfare for Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat in Detroit – and deservedly so as they rank second and third, respectively, in the league scoring race – the third member of Detroit’s top line, Lucas Raymond, should not be overlooked. The third-year winger has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 18 shots on goal in eight games, and if he’s riding shotgun with Larkin and DeBrincat, that is an opportunity for Raymond to continue producing at a high level.

#6 Entering the season, there appeared to be plenty of holes in the Philadelphia Flyers lineup, not the least of which was a defencemen that would be able to contribute offensively. The early answer to that question is apparently Travis Sanheim, who had a career-high 35 points (9 G, 26 A) in 82 games in 2018-2019, but has busted out of the gate to start the season, producing eight points (1 G, 7 A) and 16 shots on goal in seven games. He is quarterbacking Philadelphia’s first power play unit and that should be enough reason to believe that the 27-year-old at least has a shot at the most productive offensive season of his career.

#7 The Colorado Avalanche took a chance on centre Ryan Johansen, acquiring him from the Nashville Predators in the offseason, and the early returns have been positive. Johansen has five points (4 G, 1 A) in seven games, but what is notable is that he also has 17 shots on goal. That rate of 2.43 shots on goal per game would be Johansen’s highest per-game rate since the 2014-2015 season. He has shown little interest in shooting the puck in recent seasons but if the Avalanche can change that approach, then the veteran pivot becomes a lot more interesting because he has the talent to score. Johansen has three seasons in his career with at least 25 goals, though only one since 2014-2015.

#8 Although he does not seem to be an ideal fit as a first line centre for the Minnesota Wild, Ryan Hartman does have seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 18 shots on goal in the first seven games of the season. Hartman had a career-high 65 points (34 G, 31 A) during the 2021-2022 season but that was the only season of his career in which he scored more than 40 points, so expectations for his production tend to be low enough that he could exceed them. The opportunity to play with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello can drag many players into fantasy relevance.

#9 Veteran centre Sean Monahan has been a valuable contributor for the Montreal Canadiens early in the season. After groin surgery ended his 2022-2023 season prematurely, the 29-year-old was facing an uncertain future. He re-signed in Montreal and has been excellent early in the season, producing six points (3 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal in seven games. For a relatively young Canadiens team, having Monahan’s experience and production helps to insulate their emerging players.

#10 When Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy required back surgery, the immediate question was how would the Lightning address this issue so that they did not have to ride with Jonas Johansson as their starting netminder for more than two months. The Lightning have not brought in a proven NHL goaltender, instead giving Johansson the opportunity and he has a .925 save percentage in seven starts. Given his mediocre track record, seven games are not nearly enough time to declare that Johansson is now an elite goaltender, but he offers potential for fantasy managers as what looks like a secure No. 1 goaltender until the Lightning make a move.

#11 Los Angeles Kings left winger Trevor Moore has found a comfortable home on Phillip Danault’s wing and Moore has opened this season with six points, including five goals, in his first six games. Moore has 16 shots on goal and that has been one of his strengths since arriving in Los Angeles – he uses his speed to consistently generate shots – and while he is obviously not going to keep scoring on 31% of his shots, Moore could certainly surpass his career high of 17 goals, set in 2021-2022.

#12 While the Boston Bruins might have had modest expectations for 34-year-old left winger James van Riemsdyk coming into the season, he has contributed five points (3 G, 2 A) with 16 shots on goal in seven games, with three of those points coming with the man advantage. Even if he is not terribly fleet afoot at this stage of his career, JvR has always had excellent hands around the net, and he still makes sense as a net-front presence for Boston.

#13 It appeared that the Edmonton Oilers secured outstanding value when they signed right winger Connor Brown coming off a season in which he was limited to just four games before tearing his ACL. Brown had established his credentials as a winger who could play in all situations before that and had played with Connor McDavid in junior hockey, so this was a great chance for Brown to re-establish his value, but that has not been the case thus far. Through seven games, Brown has failed to record a point and has just eight shots on goal. He has fallen to the third line on the Edmonton depth chart and, according to Cap Friendly, is due a performance bonus of $3,225,000 after he plays in 10 games. Would the Oilers abandon Brown this quickly in order to save the cap space?

#14 Seattle Kraken sophomore centre Matty Beniers is off to a tough start to the campaign. The 2022-2023 Calder Trophy winner, Beniers has yet to score a goal and has three assists and 13 shots on goal in the first eight games of the season. Shot generation has not been a Beniers strength to this point in his NHL career, but he has to be able to produce more. Right now, he has rookie Tye Kartye and veteran Jordan Eberle on his wings, which is not exactly driving the Kraken attack, but Beniers is capable of more and probably counts as a buy-low candidate for fantasy managers.

#15 In the second half of last season, New Jersey Devils winger Dawson Mercer erupted for 20 points (11 G, 9 A) during a 12-game span, on his way to a 27-goal season. He has been out of sorts this season, however, still looking for his first point after six games. Even more troubling is that Mercer has been held without a shot on goal in four straight games. He has been buried in shifts when he has been skating with rookie Alexander Holtz, with the duo managing a 34.5% Corsi in the 28 minutes of five-on-five play that they have been together.

#16 The Arizona Coyotes made several moves to bolster their forward talent in the offseason and one of the results of those acquisitions has been that Lawson Crouse’s role has been decreased. Coming off back-to-back seasons with 20 or more goals, Crouse had fantasy value because of his high hit totals to accompany his goal-scoring numbers. His ice time is down 2:42 per game from last season and Crouse has managed just one assist and eight shots on goal in six games.

#17 The Calgary Flames have staggered out of the starting blocks this season and centre Nazem Kadri is one Flames skater who could produce a lot more than he has to this point in the season. In eight games, Kadri has one assist and 23 shots on goal. Flames head coach Ryan Huska tried to shake things up by moving Kadri to right wing on the top line, with Jonathan Huberdeau and Elias Lindholm, but that has not snapped Kadri from his early-season funk.

#18 Chicago Blackhawks left winger Taylor Hall has landed on the injured list, forcing another change on the wing for rookie centre Connor Bedard. With Tyler Johnson on right wing, the Blackhawks have Nick Foligno stepping into Hall’s spot. With all due respect to Foligno, this is not an ideal situation for Bedard, who could use more offensively gifted linemates If he is going to maximize his production. Through seven games, Bedard has four points (2 G, 2 A) and 22 shots on goal.

#19 Columbus Blue Jackets centre – yes, centre – Patrik Laine suffered an injury when Calgary Flames defenseman Rasmus Andersson unloaded on him with a high hit late in a Flames loss to Columbus. Laine has not returned to action yet, missing three games since the incident. Boone Jenner and Jack Roslovic have joined Johnny Gaudreau on Columbus’ top line in Laine’s absence. Andersson was suspended for four games and MacKenzie Weegar has moved into the quarterback role on Calgary’s first unit power play.

#20 The Buffalo Sabres entered the season with hopes the rookie goaltender Devon Levi would be the one to carry the starter’s load between the pipes. Levi had a mediocre .892 save percentage in the first four games of the season before a nagging lower-body injury sidelined him. That has allowed Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to see some action. As noted earlier, riding the hot hand in net is becoming a way of life for NHL teams and it has helped the Sabres pick up a couple of wins.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – OTTAWA SENATORS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 07 Oct 2023 20:32:56 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - MARCH 22: Ottawa Senators Left Wing Tim Stutzle (18) (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

REVIEW: When the Senators spent the summer of 2022 signing Claude Giroux, then 34 years old, and spending three picks, including the 2022 seventh overall, to acquire Alex DeBrincat, it was a clear sign that they hoped to exit the rebuilding phase. What followed though was a 39-35-8 record – a 13-point gain from a year prior, but insufficient for a postseason berth. Part of the issue was Ottawa finished a mediocre 18th in goals per game (3.16) despite adding two elite forwards. Alex DeBrincat’s 27 goals and 66 points in 82 contests was a regression compared to his 41-goal 2021-22 campaign with Chicago, but the bigger problem was a lack of offensive depth. Eight Senators players reached double digits in goals in contrast to 13 with Edmonton. Ottawa was also mediocre defensively, finishing 18th with a 5-on-5 expected goals against of 174.36, and unlike the Islanders, which squeaked into the playoffs with a worse offense and expected goals against, Ottawa didn’t have an elite goaltender masking their defensive woes. Instead, Cam Talbot and Anton Forsberg were merely average, which sums up the 2022-23 Senators nicely: Not bad, but not good enough.

What’s Changed? The Senators hope they’ve bolstered their mediocre goaltending by signing Joonas Korpisalo to replace Talbot, who left as a free agent. They also failed to agree to terms with DeBrincat, who was a restricted free agent, so they dealt him to Detroit in exchange for a solid middle-six forward in Dominik Kubalik, defensive prospect Donovan Sebrango and two draft picks. In an attempt to make up for the lost offense, Ottawa inked Vladimir Tarasenko to a one-year, $5 million deal.

What would success look like? Ottawa is looking to end its six-year playoff drought, but the competition in the Atlantic Division is intense. A strong year out of Joonas Korpisalo would certainly help, which is possible. He’s not an elite goaltender, but the 29-year-old is solid. A healthy season out of Joshua Norris, who scored 35 goals in 2021-22, but was limited to eight games last year due to a shoulder injury, would also provide Ottawa with a much-needed boost to its offensive depth. Between Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Giroux and Tarasenko, it’s reasonable to believe Ottawa will have two strong lines, but they need enough weapons to fill a decent third unit.

What could go wrong? However, Norris bouncing right back might be too much to hope for. The 24-year-old’s promise is clear, but that 35-goal campaign was also the first time in his career he even reached the 20-goal mark, so he’s far from proven. Meanwhile, Ottawa might get a bit less than Giroux’s 2022-23 finish of 79 points. After all, he’ll turn 36 in January. As far as injury risks go, Ottawa has a big one in elite defenseman Thomas Chabot, who has missed 37 contests over the last two years.

Top Breakout Candidate: One possible solution to Ottawa’s third-line question is Shane Pinto. Playing in his first full campaign, he supplied 20 goals and 35 points in 82 contests last year. Still just 22 years old, Pinto has the potential to start the campaign on the third line and then work himself into a bigger role, especially if Ottawa runs into injury troubles.

Forwards

Brady Tkachuk

Of the 15 forwards who registered over 200 hits last season, no one scored more than Tkachuk’s 35 goals. His 2022-23 season put him in some exclusive company. Alex Ovechkin is the only other player in the NHL’s recorded history to blend that volume of physicality and goal production. Tkachuk’s skillset makes him a unicorn and one of the premier power forwards in the league. Thanks to his willingness to go to the dirty areas of the ice and battle for deflections and loose pucks, Tkachuk has established himself as a shot-generation machine. Of all the qualified skaters who logged over 500 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time last season per NaturalStatTrick, only David Pastrnak averaged more shots per 60 minutes than Tkachuk. Any knocks to Tkachuk’s game are rooted in his defensive contributions and the notion he does not finish as many chances as he should given his shot volume. Considering he scored 35 goals, it may sound weird to read that he does not finish enough, but Tkachuk finished fourth in the league in expected goals (min. 500 5v5 TOI) in 2022-23. His expected goal metrics are always higher than his actual output. One of these years, it feels like if everything breaks right, he has the capacity to put up a monster offensive season. Like many of Ottawa’s other young players, Tkachuk’s poor defensive metrics can partially be explained as a product of the team’s personnel and defensive system. With a vastly improved defensive corps and a greater commitment to puck support as a five-man unit, Tkachuk’s metrics should continue to improve.

Tim Stützle

When the Senators invested in Tim Stützle, signing him to an eight-year contract worth an AAV of $8.35, they gambled on the German’s pedigree and offensive upside. His transition from the wing to centre during his sophomore year helped spark his ability to impact the game on both sides of the puck. In 2022-23, he rewarded the Senators with their long-term investment. He continued to take marked steps in his development offensively and defensively. He would finish the season leading the Senators in scoring with 39 goals and 90 points in 78 games. He became the third centre in franchise history to eclipse that point threshold but holds the distinction of being the youngest to do it at just 21 years of age. The departures of Connor Brown and Alex Formenton represented a significant loss to the Senators’ penalty killing units and Stützle was one of the forwards called upon to fill the void. It speaks to D.J. Smith’s growing confidence in him. Stützle tied for the team lead in shorthanded goals with three and averaged 1:16 of shorthanded ice time per game. Besides the natural growth of a young player, the jump in production can be explained by the quality of linemates. After spending most of the previous season playing predominantly with Alex Formenton and Connor Brown, centring Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux represented a significant improvement. As the team continues to improve around him, the hope is that his offensive production and defensive metrics will continue to improve.

Claude Giroux

Claude Giroux has only played one season for the Senators, but he already has leapt to the top of the list as the best free agent signing in franchise history. In his return home, the 35-year-old wowed fans by recording 35 goals and 79 points while playing in every single one of the Senators’ 82 games. Amazingly, the veteran’s 35 goals established a new personal regular season high. It was the first time Giroux had cracked the 30-goal mark since the 2017-18 season. This boost in production can be chalked up to the chemistry he developed alongside Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle. This trio generated more than 55 percent of the goals (58.49 GF%), shots (56.82 CF%), shots on goal (55.37) and expected goals (59.82 xGF%) at five-on-five per Evolving-Hockey. Playing predominantly as the right winger on this line Giroux had one of the best isolated defensive impacts on the team per Hockeyviz. His ability to impact the game at both ends of the ice was a huge addition to the Senators’ top six. In particular, his strength in the faceoff circle allowed his line to overcome Stützle’s struggles at the dot. Of the players who took more than 300 draws last season, Stützle’s 41.6 percent success rate was the eighth-worst mark in the league. Giroux insulated Stützle’s ineffectiveness with the league’s 10th-best mark at 58.3 percent.

Vladimir Tarasenko

Following the well-publicized departure of last season’s prize acquisition, Alex DeBrincat, the Senators shored up their top six scoring by inking Vladimir Tarasenko to a one-year contract worth $5 million. The signing of the four-time All-Star and 2019 Stanley Cup champion generated headlines. Tarasenko is a recognizable talent who can still be a productive NHL player. In 69 games split between the Blues and Rangers last season, Tarasenko recorded 18 goals and 50 points. It was a step down in production for the six-time 30-goal scorer, but he represented the best available offensive talent that remained on the free agent market. There is a chance that Tarasenko’s waning production is part of an age-related decline, but the good news is that he is just one season removed from the second-best five-on-five shooting percentage of his career (14.8 per Evolving-Hockey). Last season’s (9.7) was the second-worst. A motivated Tarasenko should be extremely valuable to the Senators. If he can get back closer to his career norms, he will have a chance to cash in on the open market next summer. If his production continues to decline, the Senators will still need his offence to outweigh his defensive contributions. Tarasenko’s become a liability on the defensive side of the puck. There is also the question of fit. As a winger who prefers playing his off-side, the addition of Tarasenko to the right wing could necessitate moving one of Claude Giroux or Drake Batherson to their off-side.

Josh Norris

On the heels of a sophomore season in which he exploded for 35 goals and 55 points in 66 games, centre Josh Norris cashed in by signing an eight-year pact carrying an AAV of $7.95 million. The contract represented a significant commitment to the team’s second-line centre and set a relatively high standard for Norris to live up to. Last season, he never got the chance. A devastating shoulder injury curtailed his season and limited him to eight games. So much of Ottawa’s postseason aspirations hinge on Norris’ recovery and his ability to resemble the player that he was pre-injury. Even when healthy, it was fair to believe that Norris would experience some natural regression in his shooting percentage (20.3 in 2021-22). Fortunately, he has historically been a strong shooter throughout his career, so that regression should not be too severe - provided that Norris’ recovery does not inhibit his ability to shoot the puck. Power play usage will be another thing to monitor. Of the forwards who logged over 100 minutes of power play ice time in 2021-22 per NaturalStatTrick, only two forwards averaged a higher goals per 60 minutes of ice time rate than Norris – Chris Kreider and Leon Draisaitl. Norris should continue to play the right side on the first power play unit, but the addition of Vladimir Tarasenko, who also works from that spot, could impact those minutes.

Drake Batherson

On the surface, it is easy to look at Drake Batherson’s numbers and arrive at the conclusion that he had a down year. Scoring 22 goals and tallying 62 points in 82 games is not a terrible season by any measure, but that minus-35 was unsightly. Considering Batherson put up 17 goals in each of the two previous seasons while playing in what was essentially half a season’s worth of games, expectations for him were high. After scoring on more than 15 percent of his shots in each of his previous two campaigns, Batherson’s shooting percentage was almost halved to 8.8 percent last season. Although NaturalStatTrick’s data shows that Batherson’s goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time dropped from 1.08 to 0.37 last season, there are a number of reasons to believe that he can reach another level. He shot the puck more than he ever had in his career. His average of 8.87 shots per 60 of five-on-five ice time per NaturalStatTrick represented a career-high. Last season, only Buffalo’s Tage Thompson (15) hit more posts than Batherson. Provided he can stay healthy and preserve that kind of shot volume, better luck and a regression to the mean in terms of his shooting percentage should allow Batherson to enjoy a career season in 2023-24.

Shane Pinto

For the first time since Brady Tkachuk scored 22 goals during the 2018-19 season, Shane Pinto became the eighth rooking in franchise history to score 20 or more goals in his rookie campaign – joining Tkachuk, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, Patrick Eaves, Daniel Alfredsson, Alexandre Daigle and Alexei Yashin. Pinto started the 2022-23 season strong, scoring six goals in his first eight games. But, when Josh Norris was felled by a shoulder injury, Pinto moved up the depth chart and no longer received the luxury of being insulated. Despite more challenging assignments and responsibilities, the Senators still outshot (51.4 CF%) and created a higher percentage of expected goals (50.7 xGF%) when Pinto was on the ice at five-on-five. With the return of Norris, Pinto will once again be relegated to the third line and potentially easier matchups. For an organization that struggled to generate offence from its third and fourth lines, a returning Pinto armed with the confidence of knowing he can pot 20 goals will be vital to this team’s push for the postseason. One of the things to keep an eye on with Pinto this season will be his work on the penalty kill. Following the departures of Austin Watson, Dylan Gambrell, and Tyler Motte, shorthanded minutes will need to be reallocated. One of the benefactors of those responsibilities should be Pinto.

Dominik Kubalik

As the lone NHL piece that was returned to the Senators in this offseason’s Alex DeBrincat trade, Dominik Kubalik is a reasonably priced player who offers the Senators affordable depth scoring. He is in the last year of a two-year deal carrying an AAV of $2.5 million. In 81 games with the Red Wings last season, he scored 20 goals and 45 points. Brady Tkachuk is entrenched as the team’s first-line left winger, but beyond that, the second line could be open. If Vladimir Tarasenko plays on his preferred off-side, it could necessitate Giroux or Batherson moving to their off-side to accommodate him. The alternative is Kubalik because of his natural left-shot handedness. If he does, there is a chance for Kubalik to flourish. He finished third on the Red Wings in individual expected goals for per 60 (0.81 ixG/60) and individual scoring chances per 60 (7.71 iSCF/60) per NaturalStatTrick. He thrived playing alongside Dylan Larkin and David Perron. Away from Detroit’s top talent, the underlying numbers cratered. Something to keep an eye on is if Kubalik winds up on a line with Tarasenko. The Senators’ forward group is not exactly renowned for its defensive aptitude and their two biggest additions in Kubalik and Tarasenko are not going to bolster that weakness. They could exacerbate it.

Mathieu Joseph

It is never ideal to be referenced in the same breath as the infamous Bill Muckalt, but Mathieu Joseph was the only Senator forward to log more than 500 minutes of ice time who failed to score a five-on-five goal in 2022-23. According to NaturalStatTrick’s data, of the 382 forwards who logged more than 500 minutes of five-on-five ice time, only two forwards failed to score one goal last season: Montreal’s Jake Evans and Joseph. It was a precipitous drop in offence. Following his trade to the Senators at last year’s trade deadline, Joseph averaged 3.89 points per 60 minutes of ice time. Being an 11-game sample, it was naive to believe that this brief stretch was truly representative of his offensive upside. Last season’s output of three goals and 15 points was incredibly disappointing for Sens management after they locked him up to a three-year contract worth a $2.9 million AAV. Without any even-strength production out of Joseph, it really hurts the Senators’ secondary scoring. Hopefully, the return of Shane Pinto to the third line will boost Joseph’s productivity. Fortunately for the Senators, while Joseph struggled to produce offensively, he is still a competent defensive forward and a valuable contributor on the penalty kill that ranked in the top half of the league last season.

Defence

Thomas Chabot

The 2022-23 season was a polarizing one that showcased the best and worst of Thomas Chabot. Often last season, he would take heat for his defensive play and lapses. The numbers backed it up. According to Evolving-Hockey’s Total Defence (DEF) metric that combines the even strength and shorthanded contributions to arrive at a single number for defensive value created, 2022-23 was tied for being the worst defensive season of his career. The good news is that the site’s Total Offence (OFF) metric, which combines even strength and power play contributions measured 2022-23 as being his best offensive year – surpassing his impressive 2018-19 season in which he scored 14 goals and 55 points. One of the things that hurt Chabot last year is that he logged more than 30 minutes of ice time with eight defensive partners last season – including 257 with an ineffective Nikita Zaitsev, one of the least valuable defencemen in the league. Even with poor defensive partners and a lack of continuity, Chabot was rated as the team’s most valuable player according to according to Evolving-Hockey’s ‘wins above replacement’ (WAR) and ‘goals above replacement’ (GAR) metrics. It speaks to his importance in Ottawa’s puck movement and transition game. A full season alongside Jakob Chychrun will inevitably make things easier for Chabot and improve his numbers, but the Senators will need him to be more reliable for the team to take a step forward.

Jakob Chychrun

It took time, but the Senators finally addressed their need for a top-four defenceman by acquiring Jakob Chychrun at the 2023 trade deadline. A lower-body injury limited Chychrun to 12 games with Ottawa, but in those games, he averaged 21 minutes of ice time scoring two goals and adding three assists. Most of his minutes were spent playing with Travis Hamonic to some underwhelming 5-on-5 shot and goal metrics. When they were on the ice together, the Senators generated 48.9 percent of the goals (GF%), 40 percent of the expected goals (xGF%), 43.8 percent of the shots (CF%) and 44.2 percent of the shots on goal per Evolving-Hockey. Fortunately, Chychrun is expected to open the season playing alongside Thomas Chabot. In a very small sample size of 35 minutes of five-on-five ice time, the duo was exceptional – generating approximately 60 percent of the shots and expected goals. A wrinkle is that Ottawa’s three most talented defencemen are all natural left shots. Chychrun has experience playing his off-side, so that mitigates most of the concern, but he has missed 152 games across his seven seasons in the league. With so much invested in Chychrun being the solution to shore the blue line, if he needs to play his natural side or continues to be plagued by injuries, it could really hamper the team’s postseason aspirations.

Jake Sanderson

When Jake Sanderson was selected with the fifth overall selection in 2020, it created some ripples and consternation. Was he the best available defenceman? Should the Senators have targeted another highly skilled forward? Sanderson’s rookie campaign erased any concerns about his selection. He contributed four goals and 32 points in 77 games last season. Only Owen Power recorded more points as a rookie defenceman than Sanderson. Where he thrived was on the defensive side of the puck. His elite skating ability, gap control and active stick made life frustrating for attacking forwards. Perhaps the most flattering thing that you can say about Sanderson’s play last season is that he helped land veteran Travis Hamonic a new two-year contract. The pair logged over 500 minutes of five-on-five ice time together and the results were average. When this pairing was on the ice, the Senators generated as many shots and expected goals as the opposition (50.5 CF%, 49.5 xGF%). They did however give up a greater percentage of actual goals (42.9 GF%), but that can be attributed in part to bad luck. Sanderson is expected to play with Artem Zub this season. In 239 five-on-five minutes together, the Senators generated more of the shots (52.7 SF%) and expected goals (53.3 xGF%). Most impressively, the team suppressed a lot more shots when this pairing was together. Put in contrast with the Sanderson/Hamonic pairing which allowed 33.6 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five, the Sanderson/Zub pairing allowed 24.9.

Artem Zub

Since joining the Senators from SKA Saint Petersburg of the KHL in 2020, Artem Zub has developed a steadfast reputation for being the Senators’ best defensive defenceman. It is that reputation that earned the 27-year-old a four-year contract extension worth an AAV of $4.6 million. And, it is a reputation that is backed up by the data. Using HockeyViz’s data that measures a player’s isolated offensive and defensive impacts, no Senators defenceman had a more significant defensive impact than Zub. Evolving-Hockey’s total defence metric (DEF) had Zub ranked second on the team behind Erik Brannstrom, but injuries limited Zub to 53 games last season - robbing him of the chance to accrue more value. Historically, Zub has always been a player who makes those around him better and in 2023-24, he will be tasked with trying to get more performance and development out of sophomore Jake Sanderson. Considering how well Sanderson fared in his first season playing meaningful minutes carrying Travis Hamonic, the likelihood of Sanderson helping push Zub to a career year feels very real.

Goaltending

Joonas Korpisalo

The rebuilding Ottawa Senators have made it clear in the last few years – goaltenders who are moving on from old teams have a place with the Atlantic Division underdogs, and there’s plenty of time in their rebuild window to be patient with anyone needing a little extra time to get their game back on track. For former Columbus Blue Jackets tandem starter Joonas Korpisalo, it’s the perfect place – out of the public eye, and with a team that’s been slowly but surely turning things around – to prove that he still has an NHL-capable game and establish himself as a number one outside of the free-falling Blue Jackets.

Korpisalo stylistically looked like the less reliable option in Columbus, with a game that relies almost too much on flat angles and post coverage in a way that opened up holes and made him easy to predict. But while Elvis Merzlikins had the flashier game, Korpisalo was the team’s better option last year – and he showed during a brief stint post-trade deadline with the Los Angeles Kings that he might be predictable, but he’s reliable. He struggles at times with rebounds, but his tracking is effective – and for the Senators, the most important thing is that he’s both still relatively young (he’s only 29) and he has a fairly good track record of staying healthy. After multiple years of bad injury luck, the Senators should count it as a win if Korpisalo is even league average while maintaining his reputation as a goaltender who won’t go down for most of the year.

Projected starts: 45-50

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Fallout from Horvat trade – Veterans offering midseason value – Young players getting a chance

Scott Cullen — Fri, 03 Feb 2023 17:07:03 +0000

NEW YORK, NY - DECEMBER 22: New York Islanders Center Mathew Barzal (13) in action during the first period of the National Hockey League game between the New York Islanders and the New York Rangers on December 22, 2022 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, a look at fallout from the Bo Horvat trade, veterans offering midseason value, young players getting a chance to prove they belong and more in this NHL All-Star break edition.

#1 With all due respect to Matt Nieto going back to Colorado, the first big trade chip to move before the trade deadline was Bo Horvat going from Vancouver to the New York Islanders. Horvat is in the midst of a career season, with 31 goals in 49 games, and he has 11 goals on the power play. That ought to help an Islanders power play that has a league-worst net of 3.57 goals per 60 minutes (4.76 goals for, 1.19 goals against) during five-on-four play. There is most likely regression coming for Horvat. He has scored on a career-high 21.7% of his shots and his on-ice shooting percentage is pushing 11.0%, so even if the opportunity is going to be better on The Island, the percentages are due to fall.

#2 It seems that Mathew Barzal should benefit from Horvat’s arrival. It provides him with a finisher, and it looks like Barzal could slide to the wing to accommodate the new arrival. Barzal has 43 points (12 G, 31 A) in 51 games and that 0.84 points per game is pretty much in line with Barzal’s production over the past five seasons. He has not been able to get back to the point per game pace that he established in his rookie season of 2017-2018.

#3 Heading to Vancouver, left winger Anthony Beauvillier is a 25-year-old who has yet to record a 40-point season but has shown enough offensively that he should get plenty of opportunity in a top-six role with the Canucks. If Vancouver is genuinely rebuilding, they probably need to move another winger or two, and with Ilya Mikheyev done for the season due to a torn ACL, Beauvillier has some hope for better production down the stretch.

#4 The prosect that Vancouver acquired, Aatu Raty, was a second-round pick in 2021. He was expected to be a high first-round pick but had a rough draft year, scoring six points in 35 games in Finland’s Liiga. He rebounded the following season, though, putting up 41 points (13 G, 28 A) in 47 games, helping to re-establish his prospect value. He scored a couple of goals in a dozen games with the Islanders this season, but the 20-year-old is not yet ready for a regular role in the NHL. With more time to develop in the AHL, though, he could provide long-term value in dynasty leagues.

#5 Boston Bruins winger Pavel Zacha is a versatile player who can move around the lineup and, with Jake DeBrusk out, he offers Boston a viable option in a top-six role. Zacha has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in his past 12 games, and while some of that is due to him scoring on 28.6% of his shots, he is giving Boston the secondary scoring that they need to remain at the top of the league.

#6 This was supposed to be a breakout season for second year Florida Panthers center Anton Lundell but that was not happening. In order to shake things up, Lundell has been moved to left wing on the top line, with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, and that is having the desired effect as Lundell has seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 21 shots on goal in the past eight games. As long as he remains in that spot, Lundell has fantasy appeal.

#7 Carolina Hurricanes winger Teuvo Teravainen has had four seasons with more than 60 points, but he has not been producing at that level this season. He missed some time with an upper-body injury, but he is starting to deliver the points. In his past 14 games, Teravainen has 11 points (2 G, 9 A) and has returned to play on the top line with Sebastian Aho.

#8 Although he has flashed potential before, Philadelphia Flyers center Morgan Frost is making the most of his opportunity to play in a scoring role. The 23-year-old has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 29 shots on goal in 14 games since the calendar flipped to 2023. There is some risk associated with Frost because he has not established himself over a long period of time, and head coach John Tortorella is not afraid to make him a healthy scratch, but there are signs that Frost is starting to realize his potential as a scoring center.

#9 Injuries have forced the Toronto Maple Leafs to shuffle their lines and Calle Jarnkrok has given the Leafs a legitimate option in a scoring role. IN 20 games since returning from injury, Jarnkrok has put up 16 points (7 G, 9 A), albeit with just 30 shots on goal. He is averaging 13:37 of ice time per game, his lowest since 2014-2015, but is capable of handling more if necessary.

#10 Quinton Byfield was the second overall pick in the 2020 Draft, and it has taken him some time to live up to his promise, and he’s not there yet, but he appears to be moving the right direction. After producing 15 points (9 G, 6 A) in 16 AHL games, he was called up to the Kings and has a modest six points (2 G, 4 A) in 16 games since returning to the NHL. More importantly, though, he is getting reps at left wing on the top line alongside Anze Kopitar.

#11 The 28^th pick in the 2020 Draft by the Ottawa Senators, Ridly Greig was called up to the Sens after producing 23 points (12 G, 11 A) in 28 AHL games. He opened his NHL career with eight shots on goal against the Islanders and picked up a couple of assists in four games. It is probably too soon to expect significant production from Greig, but he could play a significant role for Ottawa the rest of the way.

#12 Drafted 26^th overall in the 2019 Draft by the Calgary Flames, Jakob Pelletier has been crushing it in the American Hockey League, scoring 98 points (43 G, 55 A) in 99 games across the past two seasons, so he has earned his promotion to Calgary, where he has yet to record a point in four games. However, he is also getting a chance on the second line with Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau, which is at least the kind of opportunity required for Pelletier to live up to his offensive potential.

#13 Although he has just eight points (3 G, 5 A) in 17 games this season, New Jersey Devils left winger Ondrej Palat is worth checking out. He missed two-and-a-half months following groin surgery and it took him a few games to get back into the groove, but now has five points (1 G, 4 A) with 13 shots on goal in the past seven games. He is skating on the left side of Devils captain Nico Hischier, which ought to keep Palat in position to put up a respectable point total.

#14 Last season, St. Louis Blues forward Ivan Barbashev erupted for a career-high 26 goals and 60 points and while he is not producing at the same level this season, he is also a prime candidate to get moved before the March 3 trade deadline. Barbashev has four points (3 G, 1 A) in the past five games, and with several injuries to St. Louis forwards, he has played more than 18 minutes in each of his past four games.

#15 Ottawa Senators right winger Mathieu Joseph has a modest 12 points (3 G, 9 A) in 31 games but keep an eye on him. He is getting a shot at right wing on the top line alongside Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle and getting that opportunity could set Joseph up for bigger production. Remember, he had 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in 11 games last season after he was acquired from the Tampa Bay Lightning.

#16 With word that Vegas Golden Knights captain Mark Stone is underdoing his second back surgery in less than a year, the Golden Knights are left in need of some answers up front. Until external help is acquired, there will be chances for Michael Amadio and Paul Cotter to skate in top six roles. Amadio has just 12 points (7 G, 5 A) in 37 games, but when he had a chance to move up the lineup in December, he put up nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 21 shots on goal in a seven-game span. Cotter has 11 points (8 G, 3 A) in 30 games, but did score six goals in a 13-game span in December and January.

#17 The leading scorer among rookies, Seattle Kraken center Matty Beniers is out with an upper-body injury and that comes on the heels of a five-game scoreless streak. With Beniers out, there is more opportunity for centers Morgan Geekie and Alexander Wennberg to play substantial minutes for the Kraken. Geekie is typically a fourth-line center, but has seven points (1 G, 6 A) in 11 games this season when he has played more than 12 minutes. Wennberg is playing a career high 18:46 per game and has nine points (4 G, 5 A) in his past 14 games but he is also getting first-unit power play time and that is worth tracking.

#18 In the month of January there were 54 players to average at least a point per game (minimum 50 minutes), led by Jack Hughes (1.77), Zach Hyman (1.67), and Connor McDavid (1.67). Naturally, a lot of these players scoring better than a point per game over the course of a month are to be expected, but some of the more surprising names include defensemen Dougie Hamilton (1.23) and Vince Dunn (1.13), as well as forwards Kevin Hayes (1.07), Brandon Hagel (1.00), Tyler Toffoli (1.00), Joel Eriksson Ek (1.00), and Filip Chytil (1.00).

#19 Eriksson Ek ranked 10^th in individual expected goals per game (0.55) in January so his production is backed by underlying numbers that show he is getting quality chances. Others among the Top 30 in January include Carter Verhaeghe (0.50), Blake Coleman (0.47), Michael Eyssimont (0.44), Boone Jenner (0.42), Anders Lee (0.42), and Mason McTavish (0.42). On the other hand, some notable forwards that are closer to the bottom of the list include Jack Roslovic (0.11), Jonathan Toews (0.13), Pavel Zacha (0.13), Evgeny Kuznetsov (0.14), Anthony Mantha (0.14), Ryan Strome (0.14), and Blake Wheeler (0.15).

#20 Don’t forget about goaltender Philipp Grubauer in Seattle. He has been mostly awful, posing an .891 save percentage in 72 games over the past two seasons, but if he can return to something resembling his previous form, there is still a chance for him to earn playing time with a quality Kraken team in front of him. In four starts in 2023, Grubauer has a .940 save percentage and while that is a small sample, a few more quality starts could help him push for more starts.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – OTTAWA SENATORS – NHL Player Profiles

Graeme Nichols – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 20:48:07 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - NOVEMBER 14: Ottawa Senators Defenceman Thomas Chabot (72) keeps a close eye on the play during third period National Hockey League action between the Calgary Flames and Ottawa Senators on November 14, 2021, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Brady Tkachuk

Brady Tkachuk’s reputation as power forward and net-front presence is renowned after just four seasons in the league. He is the only player in the league to finish in the top-10 in both hits (270, 5^th) and shots on goal (288, 10^th). His willingness to go to the dirty areas of the ice is what spurs his incredibly high volume of shots. Across all situations, NaturalStatTrick’s data had Tkachuk finishing 13^th amongst league forwards in shots per 60 minutes of ice-time. With most of these shots occurring around the goal mouth, it not surprising to learn that only five players in the league had a higher expected goals per 60 minutes of ice-time rate than Tkachuk last season. That kind of volume in such a dangerous area will lead to great results, so it was not a surprise to see Tkachuk record his first career 30-goal season and set a career high in goals and points (67). Like a few of Ottawa’s other young forwards, one area of growth that needs to improve is Tkachuk’s defensive impact. According to HockeyViz.com’s isolated defensive impact, Tkachuk rates poorly creating 0.16 expected goals against per 60 minutes of ice-time. Evolving-Hockey’s ‘Total Defence’ (DEF) metric that combines even-strength and shorthanded impact rated Tkachuk as having the team’s lowest mark (-3.7) amongst its forwards. Unfortunately, what makes Brady a special player could be working against him inside the defensive zone. If he can reign some of that aggressiveness in, it may lead to more structured team defence that benefits everyone.

Josh Norris

The best thing that Josh Norris did in the last calendar year was bet on himself. Rather than negotiate a contract with a year left on his entry-level contract, Norris decided to wait until this summer to open discussions. It paid off as the centre exploded setting career highs in goals (35) and points (55). Armed with a new eight-year pact carrying an AAV of $7.95 million, the pressure will be on Norris to replicate or even improve upon last season’s numbers. There may be concern he is due for regression simply because of his 20.3 shooting percentage. There are a few reasons to be optimistic his production will not diminish. The biggest reason is because Norris’ shot is a weapon. Last season’s mark is not far removed from his 2020-21 shooting percentage (17.7), but Norris really showcased what he could do when given time and space on the power play. Of the forwards who logged over 100 minutes of power play ice time per NaturalStatTrick.com, only two forwards averaged a higher goals per 60 minutes of ice time than Josh Norris – Chris Kreider and Leon Draisaitl. Not surprisingly, those were the only two forwards who bested Norris’ 16 power play goals on the season. Even if teams adjust their coverage and target Norris, the hope is that the addition of Alex DeBrincat on the opposing flank keep the opposition honest. Norris can overcome regression by shooting more and as the team continues to improve around him, the hope is that Ottawa will spend more time in the offensive zone creating more opportunities for Norris and the rest of Ottawa’s young core.

Drake Batherson

If Josh Norris cashed in at the right time, Drake Batherson just missed out on his chance. After inking a six-year contract carrying a $4.975 million last summer, Batherson was Ottawa’s most productive player (13 G, 34 Pts in 31 GP) when a collision with Buffalo goaltender Aaron Dell put him on the shelf for two months with a high ankle sprain. That injury forced Batherson to miss playing in his first NHL All-Star Game. Batherson would return in March to tally eight goals and 16 points in his final 22 games. He finished second on the team in points per 60 minutes of ice-time (3.03) trailing only Mathieu Joseph who only played in 11 games. Batherson’s progression as a producer makes his six-year extension a bargain and with the salary cap ceiling expected to rise within two years, that contract will continue to pay dividends down the road. Like Tkachuk, Batherson’s defensive play could use some improvement, but the hope is that as the team improves around them, their defensive performance will improve. The Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson line often received the toughest matchups while playing in front of one of the league’s worst defensive units. The additions of DeBrincat and Giroux will bolster the scoring depth and create matchup problems but improving the quality of the blue line would do wonders to boost the defensive metrics of Ottawa’s forwards.

Alex DeBrincat

In one of the most unanticipated and biggest moves of the offseason, the Senators went out and acquired a 24-year-old Alex DeBrincat who scored 41 goals last season. The Senators sent the seventh overall selection in 2022 and a second and third-round pick to the Blackhawks for one of the league’s most prodigious goal scorers over the past five seasons. In that span of time, only six players have scored more goals than Alex DeBrincat (160). And, only seven players have scored more power-play goals than DeBrincat’s 33. The Senators will be counting heavily on DeBrincat to give the team two dangerous lines and help boost a first power play unit that almost relied exclusively on feeding Josh Norris to create offence. If there is any genuine concern about DeBrincat’s play, it is going to stem from how he will fare after he logged significant minutes playing alongside one of the league’s most dynamic offensive players in Patrick Kane. Last season DeBrincat’s underlying metrics were worse when he played away from Kane, but across a larger sample of data, he surprisingly fared better. According to NaturalStatTrick’s last three seasons worth of data, the Hawks actually generated a greater percentage of expected goals and scoring chances when DeBrincat did not play with Kane. Although it is true that the Senators currently do not have a dynamic offensive talent like Kane, stylistically speaking, the hope is that Tim Stützle can eventually provide many of the similar elements.

Tim Stützle

Tim Stützle’s 2021-22 campaign was characterized by two acts. The first begins with Stützle playing on the wing. Thanks to the return of Colin White and the emergence of Shane Pinto, Stützle returned to the left wing. The prevailing belief was that fewer defensive responsibilities and a green light to fly the zone would create chances and protect his development. Through his first 16 games however, that philosophy clearly was not working. Stützle only scored one goal while recording 32 shots. Injuries to White and Pinto created the opportunity Stützle needed to transition to centre in late November. Once there, he never looked back. Having more defensive responsibility made him a more engaged player and more puck touches played to Stützle’s strengths. His skill and elusiveness carrying the puck meant more controlled entries and more opportunities to create chances. It also allowed Stützle to draw a significant volume of penalties. Only Connor McDavid (50) and Pierre-Luc Dubois (50) drew more penalties than Stützle’s 45. From March onward, Stützle’s game and confidence grew. He averaged more than a point-per-game while playing predominantly with Alex Formenton and Connor Brown. After the ‘Summer of Pierre’ brought in Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux, Stützle’s quality of linemates improved significantly. If there is a wart to Stützle’s game, it is his faceoff prowess. Of the forwards to take more than 400 draws, Stützle’s 38.3 percent success rate was the league’s fourth-worst mark. Adding Claude Giroux and his 60.3 percent success rate will ease that burden and hopefully allow this line to gain control and create more offensive chances earlier in shifts.

Claude Giroux

After months of rumours speculated on Claude Giroux’s interest in returning home, the star forward put pen to paper minutes after unrestricted free agency opened and signed a three-year contract ($6.5 million AAV). Giroux will turn 35-years-old next January, but despite being in his mid-30’s, he is still an impactful player. In 75 games between the Flyers and Panthers, the forward contributed 21 goals and 44 assists. Even if there is some age-related decline in production, his ability to impact the game at both ends of the ice will be a huge addition to the Senators’ lineup that has lacked a significant two-way presence since Mark Stone was dealt to Vegas. Last season at five-on-five, his teams generated 55.04-percent of the total shots (CF%), 57.32-percent of the goals (GF%) and 54.48-percent of the expected goals (xGF%). Not only will Giroux’s on-ice performance help insulate the young core that management has put together, but as a former captain who has experienced success in this league — a Hart Trophy finalist in 2013-14; a 7-time NHL All-Star, a second-team NHL All-Star in 2017-18 — his experiences, leadership and intangibles are going to play a pivotal role in helping develop this team’s young core.

Alex Formenton

Alex Formenton has played parts of the last four seasons in Ottawa, but the 2021-22 campaign represented his first full season with the Senators.In 79 games, the speedy left winger scored 18 goals while adding 14 assists. Per NaturalStatTrick, Formenton (8.19) finished second on the Senators in five-on-five shots per 60 minutes of ice-time behind only Brady Tkachuk (9.26). Considering how Formenton played in a third line checking role and spent a lot of time in his own end defending (47.04 CF%), it speaks volumes about how he creates offence. Almost all of it is done exclusively through his skating. As one of the league’s fastest skaters, the majority of Formenton’s offence is created off the rush. The individual chances he creates off are electric and easily perceptible, but right now, they limit his upside to a third-line, penalty killing specialist role. On the penalty kill, Formenton thrived. Per NaturalStatTrick’s shorthanded data, of the skaters who logged more than 100 minutes of shorthanded ice-time, only four skaters averaged a higher individual expected goal rate per 60 minutes (ixG/60) than Formenton. For a penalty kill group that lost big contributors like Connor Brown and Nick Paul, Formenton will be relied upon heavily. His speed makes him a dynamic threat, but Formenton to take his game to another level, he needs to add to his toolbox and find ways to create more offence through sustained offensive zone pressure. From January on last season, Formenton showcased flashes displaying an improved awareness and ability to create offensively, but until it happens more consistently, he will probably be best served in a depth role.

Mathieu Joseph

After being traded to the Ottawa Senators at last year’s trade deadline for Nick Paul, Mathieu Joseph was a relevation to the Senators in the 11 games that he played. The Senators saw enough in Joseph to reward him with a relatively inexpensive four-year extension worth $11.8 million ($2.95 million AAV). In an admittedly small sample size of games, Joseph averaged 3.89 points per 60 minutes of ice-time in a Senators jersey. He benefited from his career-high 21.1 shooting percentage, so there will likely be some regression there. Like the aforementioned Formenton, there were some concerns that Joseph was more of a slasher in terms of how he generated offence. He would use his speed and defensive acumen to create individual rush chances that would never really result in sustained offensive zone pressure. Fortunately, Joseph’s 7.01 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time represented a career-high for him and it is an encouraging sign that Joseph can recreate some of the offensive touch that he showcased down the stretch. In just his short time in Ottawa, Joseph demonstrated that he could be an exceptional penalty killer and with the departures of Nick Paul and Connor Brown, he will play a prominent role there.

Austin Watson

A favourite of head coach D.J. Smith, Austin Watson had one of his best NHL seasons. The veteran right winger reached double-digits goal mark (10) for only the second time in his eight-year career while recording 16 points. On the ice, Watson is somewhat of a throwback archetypical fourth line winger. He is relied upon to provide intangibles and a physical presence to a roster that is overflowing with young talent. Although the dynamics of the league have changed in the modern era, the Senators still place a value on having a player like Watson around to protect its young talent. To only portray Watson in that way is unfair however, because he draws a ton of penalties and has become a valued member of the team’s penalty kill. NaturalStatTrick’s numbers show that only Tim Stützle has a higher drawn penalty rate than Watson. And according to HockeyViz.com’s isolated impact data, when Watson was on the ice while the team was shorthanded, he positively influenced the team’s expected goals allowed rate (-0.37 xGA/60). After losing a few valued members of a penalty kill unit that finished with the league’s 11^th-highest penalty kill success rate (83.9%), Watson is going to factor heavily into this season’s success.

DEFENSE

Thomas Chabot

Thomas Chabot is the lynchpin of the Senators’ defence and was the team’s most valuable player last season according to Evolving-Hockey.com’s ‘Wins Above Replacement’ (WAR) metric. Chabot’s WAR (3.0) led all Senators skaters and was the league’s eighth-highest mark amongst all defencemen – which really shows how strong his season was considering he was limited to 59 games because of a broken hand. Chabot finished his season contributing seven goals and 38 points while finishing only behind only Seth Jones (26:13) in average ice-time per game (26:12). Like every season, how impactful Chabot can be, may be mitigated by his defensive partner. Barring a trade this offseason, the Senators’ weakest defensive position is its right side. Chabot’s most common partner at five-on-five last season was Artyom Zub. When on the ice together, the Senators generated a greater share of the five-on-five goals (55.64 GF%) and expected goals (53.10 xGF%) per Evolving-Hockey. If Smith moves Zub around to have two stronger pairings, it could negatively impact Chabot’s numbers if he has to log significant minutes alongside Travis Hamonic or Nikita Zaitsev. If there is one area of improvement for Chabot, it is that he is not an impactful power play performer. Despite the first power play unit’s talent level and Chabot’s ability to distribute the puck, he has never been a dangerous power play performer.

Artyom Zub

Zub has developed a cult following in Ottawa not only because of his name is fun to say when he touches the puck at the Canadian Tire Centre, but because he has asserted himself and quickly become the team’s best defensive defenceman. In fact, he may be one of the better defensive defencemen in the league. According to Evolving-Hockey’s ‘Total Defence’ (DEF) metric that combines all even strength and shorthanded contributions, only 15 defencemen in the league had a higher defensive impact than Zub’s 5.7. He will never bring fans out of their seats with a devastating hit, but Zub’s gap control and active stick allow him to disrupt plays before they evolve into dangerous chances. Coupled with his ability to consistently move the puck and it is easy to understand why he makes the players around him better. With so much riding on the performance and development of Jake Sanderson, it is this stabilizing presence that could lead the Senators to utilizing him as an insulator to ensure that the rookie’s career gets off to a fantastic start.

Travis Hamonic

At the recommendation of assistant coach Jack Capuano who was familiar with Travis Hamonic from their time on Long Island, the Senators unexpectedly acquired the defenceman from the Vancouver Canucks at the 2022 NHL trade deadline. Rather than wait to see what the offseason market would bring, Pierre Dorion moved to avoid the possibility that he would come away emptyhanded in the summer. In 19 games for the Senators, Hamonic scored one goal and added two assists while recording a +5 rating. One of the interesting dynamics in the Ottawa market is that Hamonic is often viewed positively for his contributions to the team down the stretch. Some of that probably has to do with the Senators’ scoring 51.72 percent of all the total five-on-five goals while Hamonic was on the ice. A lot of that is luck dependent. A look into Hamonic’s numbers on NaturalStatTrick.com reveals that the Senators only generated 45.96 percent of the total shots (CF%), 46.11 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), and 44.34 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). All these metrics are worse than his numbers were in Vancouver and if not for the Senators shooting 9.74 percent while he was on the ice, he probably would not be viewed as favorably.

Erik Brannstrom

It feels like every season is a make-or-break year for Erik Brannstrom. After the finish to the 2020-21 campaign looked like it solidified him as a regular, the Senators went out last offseason and acquired Michael Del Zotto and Nick Holden. Brannstrom’s two-way contract worked against him, and he started the season in Belleville. It took some time for Brannstrom to be recalled and dress regularly, but when he did, the numbers were not particularly flattering. As an undersized defenceman who is best known for puck-moving ability, Brannstrom has not consistently demonstrated that he is dynamic or talented enough to offset his limitations as a defender. As a player who struggles to box out, win battles or outmuscle the opposition, Brannstrom needs to find other ways to disrupt plays and create turnovers to help tilt the ice in Ottawa’s favour. In 2021-22, the opposition generated more than 50 percent of the shots, goals, expected goals and scoring chances when Brannstrom was on the ice. The only area where Brannstrom has consistently demonstrated an ability to contribute is on the power play. Chabot’s injury created that opportunity for him, but with Chabot’s return to health and the presence of the well-regarded Jake Sanderson, Brannstrom may not get the chance to showcase his puck distribution skills again. And if those power play opportunities become limited, or the organization prefers to place veterans like Nick Holden, Travis Hamonic and Nikita Zaitsev ahead of Brannstrom on the depth chart, the former highly touted prospect may not be long for the organization.

GOALTENDING

Cam Talbot

It’s unlikely that Cam Talbot expected the Minnesota Wild to deal for another starter last year, and it seems even less likely that he expected the team to re-sign the older option in Marc-Andre Fleury when Talbot himself was clearly still available to navigate the ship this upcoming season. So although both Talbot and the Wild have stressed that it wasn’t per his request, it seems likely that there’s a sense of relief for the netminder after he was dealt to the Ottawa Senators to take over in their tandem for the recently-moved Matt Murray.

The trade may have pushed Talbot from a clear playoff contender to a fringe Wild Card roster, but it’s a very apparent upgrade for the team itself. Where Matt Murray still seemed to be struggling to shake some of his bad habits as the team’s reclamation project over the last few years, Talbot has very obviously cleaned his game up in the aftermath of his tumultuous tenure with the Edmonton Oilers. Gone are the days where he’d play stretches of games just a few inches off angle from oncoming shots; instead, he’s back to being a goaltender who sits in the middle of his crease and waits for shots to dictate how much he needs to move, with good tracking sense and a seemingly unshakeable demeanor no matter what the score looks like on the jumbotron above the ice. That’s good news for both the Senators and his new tandem partner Anton Forsberg, who is still in the early years of his own redemption story arc and could use a more stabilizing presence to work alongside.

Projected starts: 45-50

Anton Forsberg

Anyone who has followed Anton Forsberg’s career since his tenure in Columbus will find it hard not to root for the veteran netminder this year. After a confidence-draining stint with the Chicago Blackhawks that saw him suddenly asked to shoulder a substantial workload, he ended up bouncing around for a few years at the AHL level with scattered NHL starts peppered in throughout – and slowly but surely, he managed to shake the bad habits he developed during the Chicago season and re-establish himself as a technically structured, quietly fun netminder with plenty of promise. His game gives off the impression that the development coaches he worked with from 2018 to 2021 stripped his technique down to the basics and built him back up again; he spends less time trying to settle in to get centered for an oncoming shot, which frees him up to make quick adjustments instead of having to course-correct and then snag deflections. His confidence paid off, too; although he hadn’t played in a statistically significant volume of games since the 2017-18 NHL season, Ottawa was pleased enough with his performance in limited games during the 2020-21 season to bring him into the fold to tandem with Matt Murray last season. And even playing behind a rebuilding Senators roster, which could have resulted in a season that mimicked Forsberg’s panic-driven Chicago year in 2017, the 29-year-old Swedish netminder managed to clearly emerge as the team’s best option; he posted a .917 save percentage in all situations over 46 games, recording quality starts in 67 percent of those and earning his first career NHL shutout in the process. Now, he’ll split the helm with veteran Cam Talbot as Ottawa attempts to take a step forward – and although it seemed nearly impossible to imagine two or three years ago, that could be the catalyst behind a re-emergence of the Atlantic Division club as a legitimate Wild Card contender this spring.

Projected starts: 35-40

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Early returns from the trade deadline, as Andrew Copp, Mathieu Joseph, Claude Giroux, and Frank Vatrano are among the players making a difference with their new teams

Scott Cullen — Fri, 08 Apr 2022 13:33:22 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Ryan Getzlaf is calling it a career plus early returns from the trade deadline, as Andrew Copp, Mathieu Joseph, Claude Giroux, and Frank Vatrano are among the players making a difference with their new teams.

#1 Anaheim Ducks center Ryan Getzlaf has announced that he will be retiring at the end of the season. The 36-year-old has been a massively productive player. On his way to 1,013 career points, Getzlaf had nine seasons with at least 60 points, peaking at 91 points in 2008-2009. Additionally, Getzlaf had a dozen seasons in which he recorded more than 90 hits, so he could contribute more than merely points.

NEWARK, NJ - MARCH 22: New York Rangers center Andrew Copp (18) shoots during the National Hockey League game between the New Jersey Devils and the New York Rangers on March 22, 2022 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

#2 When it comes to the players that moved at the trade deadline, the New York Rangers have to be very happy with their acquisition of Andrew Copp from the Winnipeg Jets. Copp has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 23 shots on goal in nine games and adds stability to a line with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome. Copp was going to be a sought-after free agent in the summer anyway, but this strong finish with the Rangers is only going to drive his price even higher.

#3 When the Tampa Bay Lightning made a trade to acquire Nick Paul from the Ottawa Senators, they sent right winger Mathieu Joseph to Canada’s capital. Normally a checking winger, Joseph has found himself skating on the Sens’ top line, alongside Brady Tkachuk and Josh Norris. In the past four games, Joseph has erupted for 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 13 shots on goal, suddenly becoming a scoring threat.

#4 For his part, Nick Paul has been a quality contributor for the Lightning, too. His ice time is way down, from 17:22 per game in Ottawa to 12:37 per game for Tampa Bay, and yet Paul has six points (2 G, 4 A), 18 shots on goal, and 23 hits in nine games. He is skating on a line with Anthony Cirelli and Alex Killorn, a unit that has more of an offensive role than what might have been expected when Paul was first acquired.

#5 The biggest acquisition, at least as a scoring forward, at the deadline was the Florida Panthers getting Claude Giroux from the Philadelphia Flyers. It is no surprise that Giroux has been able to produce points upon joining the league’s highest scoring team and he does have nine points (1 G, 8 A) in eight games with the Panthers, but it is notable that he has 25 shots on goal in just eight games but has managed just one goal, scoring on just 4.0% of his shots. He is now on the right wing with Jonathan Huberdeau and Sam Bennett, a pairing that has been highly productive since the Panthers added Bennett last season.

#6 Even though the Vegas Golden Knights attempted to unload Evgeny Dadonov at the trade deadline, once the deal was quashed, Dadonov returned to Vegas and has become a vital part of the Golden Knights’ playoff push. Dadonov has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in six games since “returning” to Vegas and has settled on the top line with Jack Eichel and Chandler Stephenson. Still available in many fantasy leagues, Stephenson has contributed nine points (2 G, 7 A) in six games since the deadline.

#7 Acquired by the New York Rangers from the Florida Panthers, where he could not get consistent playing time, Frank Vatrano has responded well to his bigger role. He is averaging 15:36 per game with the Blueshirts, after getting 12:12 of ice time per game with the Panthers, and Vatrano has eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 29 shots on goal in 12 games. Vatrano has always been able to get shots but has not always received the opportunity to make the most of that skill. Since 2018-2019, Vatrano is averaging 10.41 shots on goal per 60 minutes of 5v5 play, which ranks 24^th in the league among players to have skated at least 1000 5v5 minutes, just ahead of Jack Eichel and behind Kirill Kaprizov and Justin Williams.

#8 Getting a chance to play on a playoff team has helped defenseman Nick Leddy, who has five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games since joining the St. Louis Blues. He has been getting a chance to quarterback the first power play unit so there is a decent chance of Leddy providing enough offense to matter for fantasy managers down the stretch.

#9 Rickard Rakell has been a solid addition to the Pittsburgh Penguins, often skating on Evgeni Malkin’s wing, but there has not been a big spike in his production compared to the start of the season in Anaheim. Rakell has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 20 shots on goal in nine games but after playing 18:21 per game for the Ducks, he has averaged 16:16 per game for the Penguins.

#10 Part of the package going to Philadelphia in the Claude Giroux deal, Owen Tippett is getting a better opportunity to play with the Flyers, but the results have not hit yet. In 10 games with Philadelphia, Tippett has three points (2 G, 1 A), but he does have 24 shots on goal. It is probably too soon to be optimistic about Tippett’s chances to be productive this season but his finish to the 2021-2022 season should give a decent indication about whether Tippett can fulfill his potential as a scoring winger.

#11 Veteran defenseman Michael Del Zotto was banished to the American Hockey League, but he went to Belleville and put up 27 points (10 G, 17 A) in 26 games. After the trade deadline, with the Senators needing more bodies on the NHL blueline, Del Zotto was recalled and he has four assists and 14 shots on goal in eight games, playing more than 18 minutes per game for Ottawa.

#12 The Florida Panthers paid a steep price to land defenseman Ben Chiarot from the Montreal Canadiens, but Chiarot has contributed four points (1 G, 3 A) and 25 shots on goal in eight games since joining the Panthers. The points are nice, but the shot rate stands out, as Chiarot was averaging 1.78 shots on goal per game with Montreal and that is up to 3.13 per game in Florida, even though his ice time has dropped by more than two minutes per game. Such is the value of joining the league’s highest-octane attack.

#13 Although he was hurt in Boston’s last game, defenseman Hampus Lindholm has had a positive impact since joining the Bruins. He has four assists, 11 hits, 12 blocked shots, and 16 shots on goal since arriving in Boston and steadying the top pairing alongside Charlie McAvoy. Lindholm does not typically put up big offensive numbers, which tends to limit his fantasy appeal, but if he could continue to chip in offensively while averaging more than 1.5 hits and blocked shots per game, as well as two-plus shots per game, then Lindholm would still hold fantasy appeal.

#14 While three points (1 G, 2 A) in eight games for the Toronto Maple Leafs is relatively consistent with his Seattle Kraken production, defenseman Mark Giordano has managed just seven shots on goal in those eight games, which is a notable decrease, and he is playing 19:15 per game for the Maple Leafs. 2008-2009 was the last season in which Giordano averaged fewer than 20 minutes of ice time per game.

#15 Max Domi was a scoring forward of dubious fantasy value with Columbus this season, scoring 32 points (9 G, 23 A) in 55 games, but that is better than what he has been able to provide in Carolina, managing zero goals and three assists with seven shots on goal in eight games for the Hurricanes. He wasn’t playing a lot for Columbus, averaging 13:25 of ice time per game, but he is down almost two minutes per game from that mark in Carolina.

#16 The points have not been there yet for defenseman Jake Walman, who has two assists in nine games since he was acquired by the Detroit Red Wings as part of the Nick Leddy deal. What is interesting about Walman is that, after playing less than 12 minutes per game for the Blues this season, he is getting nearly 18 minutes of ice time per game for Detroit and has put 22 shots on goal in nine games with the Red Wings.

#17 One of the priciest acquisitions prior to the trade deadline, left winger Brandon Hagel had been riding a high shooting percentage on his way to scoring 21 goals in 55 games for the Blackhawks before he was added by the Tampa Bay Lightning. The high shooting percentage remains, as Hagel has two goals on 10 shots for the Lightning, but those are his only points in Tampa Bay and his ice time has gone from 17:28 per game in Chicago to 12:24 per game in Tampa Bay.

#18 One of the benefits of being a rebuilding team like the Montreal Canadiens is that the team can offer a more substantial role to a prospect that might have the same opportunity with their previous club. Defenseman Justin Barron got into a couple of games with the Colorado Avalanche earlier in the season, averaging 12:35 of ice time per game. In five games since joining the Canadiens, Barron is playing more than 19 minutes per game, and he has two points (1 G, 1 A) along with 13 shots on goal. Montreal’s defense is going to be changing and the 2020 first-round pick is likely to be a big part of it.

#19 Going the other way in that trade, winger Artturi Lehkonen only has one goal in four games for the Avalanche but there are encouraging signs, too. For one thing, Lehkonen has seen his ice time go up by nearly two minutes per game, which is not typical for a player going from a bottom feeder to a Stanley Cup contender, and Lehkonen does have 13 shots on goal in those four games. He may not be a huge scorer but there is a good chance that Lehkonen will contribute for the Avs for the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs.

#20 The Seattle Kraken don’t score a lot so there is limited fantasy upside to most of their players, but it is notable that Ryan Donato has been playing a first line role for them. Since the deadline, Donato has six points (1 G, 5 A) in eight games and is getting an extra minute per game of ice time.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

SEATTLE KRAKEN EXPANSION DRAFT: Prospects to Target – Part Two – Forwards

Brock Otten — Thu, 25 Feb 2021 20:49:20 +0000

It has been four years since the Vegas Golden Knights joined the National Hockey League through expansion. Through the expansion draft process, the Golden Knights balanced their initial lineup by selecting both veterans and youth, with a focus on team speed and competitiveness. Masterfully constructed, Vegas ended up winning the Pacific division and reaching the Stanley Cup finals in their inaugural season (2017-18).

Later this year, the Seattle Kraken will officially become the 32nd NHL franchise when they select their team through their expansion draft. July 17 is the date set for NHL teams to submit their protected lists (with Vegas being exempt) and July 21 is the date set for the expansion draft itself. Of course, these dates could change depending on how the NHL season finishes up in the midst of a global pandemic. However, as of right now, that is when we will find out who will be wearing that Kraken jersey to start the 2021-22 season.

Naturally, Seattle general manager Ron Francis, assistant general manager Jason Botterill, and director of player personnel Norm Maciver will be aiming to replicate the success that Vegas had (and has continued to have). They have to reach the salary floor with their selections, so they will be choosing some veterans (or trading for/signing some) to lead this group. However, much like Vegas, they will be looking to swing for the fences with some selections, by opting for a few young, unestablished players. This article aims to highlight some of the prospects who could be (and are likely to be) left unprotected by their NHL teams come July. The focus is on players who have yet to truly establish themselves as NHL players. The list will be organized by position and published in two parts. This is the second feature on the forwards. Part one can be found by linking here.

FORWARDS

Rasmus Asplund - Buffalo Sabres

A strong two-way center, Asplund has had a hard time breaking through with the Sabres to become a full time NHL player. Even this year, he has seen time on the Sabres roster, on the taxi squad, and in the AHL with Rochester. He could certainly be a potential bottom six center target for the Kraken.

Morgan Geekie - Carolina Hurricanes

A big forward, Geekie has broken through as a full time NHL player to start the 2021 season after a successful cup of coffee last year. Playing on the fourth line and the powerplay, Geekie has yet to hit the score sheet this year. However, given Carolina’s forward depth, it seems unlikely that they will be able to protect him.

Kevin Stenlund - Columbus Blue Jackets

If there is one forward on this list that I see possibly being protected, it is Stenlund. He has proven himself to be a quality NHL forward after a half a season last year and a hot start this year. The question is, if Stenlund is protected, it means someone like Max Domi, Boone Jenner, or the injured Gustav Nyquist will not be. Columbus could also try to work out a deal with Seattle to make sure that they leave Stenlund be.

Henrik Borgstrom - Florida Panthers

At this point, Borgstrom is probably a candidate for a change of scenery. The former University of Denver star got off to a good start in his pro career, but he has been unable to take that next step, with last year being a clear step backwards. As such, the Panthers loaned him to HIFK for the year. A talented playmaker, Borgstrom could be a great candidate for Seattle to select in hopes of unlocking his offensive potential.

Nathan Bastian - New Jersey Devils

A heavy winger, Bastian has improved every year as a pro thus far, finally making the Devils this season. He has played extremely well in a third line role and as a penalty killer. However, the Devils have a heck of a decision ahead of them for the expansion draft. Do they sacrifice Pavel Zacha in order to protect someone like Bastian or the others on this list?

Yegor Sharangovich - New Jersey Devils

Sharangovich got off to a hot start to the NHL season playing alongside Jack Hughes. While the offensive production hasn’t been consistent, he has certainly impressed in his first NHL season after starting the year in the KHL. An explosive goal scorer, the Devils may be reluctant to let him go given the energy and pace he plays with.

Janne Kuokkanen - New Jersey Devils

Like Bastian, Kuokkanen has emerged as a legitimate NHL player in his fourth pro season, excelling in the bottom six. The former London Knights standout and the key acquisition in the Sami Vatanen deal to Carolina, Kuokkanen is certainly someone who could draw the interest of Seattle.

Nick Merkley - New Jersey Devils

Merkley, an intelligent and hard working playmaker, seems to be behind Bastian, Sharangovich, Kuokkanen, and Mikey McLeod (who I assumed the Devils would be protecting) in the pecking order. However, that does not mean that he lacks talent or NHL potential. Look for the Devils to try to rotate the above players in and out of the lineup in order to truly evaluate who they could be willing to lose.

Kieffer Bellows - New York Islanders

Keiffer, the son of former NHL’er Brian Bellows, is a former high NHL draft pick whose high end goal scoring ability has yet to truly translate to terrific results at the pro level. Playing on the fourth line this year for the Isles, Bellows has yet to score this season. Given the forward depth that the Islanders have, it seems unlikely that Bellows will be able to be protected. If New York truly believes in his potential, they may try to look at a way to convince Seattle not to select him.

Julien Gauthier - New York Rangers

In the rare one for one prospect trade, the Rangers shipped Joey Keane to Carolina for Gauthier last season. The big, quick, physical winger has been a fixture on the Rangers’ fourth line to start this season, however it seems unlikely that he gets protected given the others New York must protect. One of Brendan Lemieux, Brett Howden, or Gauthier will likely get the nod with the other two being unprotected. How they finish the year will dictate who that is.

Vitaly Abramov - Ottawa Senators

A dynamic offensive player, Abramov had a breakout season in Belleville last year that really gave management hope that his skill set could translate to the NHL level. However, it seems unlikely that Ottawa will be able to protect him and how he plays in the AHL this season will dictate whether Seattle has interest in him.

Filip Chlapik - Ottawa Senators

Chlapik split last season between Ottawa and Belleville, performing only adequately in a depth role. This season, he has bounced between the main roster, the taxi squad, and the AHL. A good sized playmaking center, Chlapik may not get his chance in Ottawa, but he could be a target of Seattle.

Logan Brown - Ottawa Senators

It is certainly possible that the Senators protect Brown. The former 11th overall pick has performed admirably in the AHL, but his play at the NHL level has been uninspiring thus far. A hulking center at 6’6, Brown needs to play more between the dots and use his size; a criticism dating back to his draft year.

Nicolas Aube-Kubel - Philadelphia Flyers

A competitive and feisty forward, Aube-Kubel is a versatile player for the Flyers with the ability to play in any situation and any forward position. He has been in the Flyers system forever and is finally getting a chance to be a full time NHL player this season. However, it is unlikely that the Flyers will be able to protect him. He could be the perfect bottom six player for Seattle.

Alex Barre Boulet - Tampa Bay Lightning

The first two seasons of Barre-Boulet’s pro career probably couldn’t have gone better considering he was an undrafted free agent acquisition by Tampa. He was the AHL rookie of the year two years ago and an AHL all star last year. But due to Tampa’s depth he remains buried in the minors again this year (where he has continued his torrid pace). The dilemma for Tampa Bay will be, do they protect a player who...as of now, has not shown an ability to translate his offensive skill set to the NHL?

Alex Volkov - Tampa Bay Lightning

Ahead of Barre-Boulet on the Tampa depth chart currently and the recipient of a roster spot thanks to the Kucherov injury, Volkov is a skilled winger that the Lightning have high hopes for. However, like many young players in their system, it is unlikely that they will be able to protect him.

Mitchell Stephens - Tampa Bay Lightning

A former high selection by the Lightning, Stephens was set to play full time this year as the Lightning’s fourth line center. However, he suffered a lower body injury early on and is sidelined for a few months. No longer waiver eligible, he likely will continue to have a spot when he returns but will it be enough for him to earn one of those valuable protection spots?

Mathieu Joseph - Tampa Bay Lightning

A high energy winger, Joseph was a standout as a rookie for the Lightning in 2018/19, however the acquisitions of players like Goodrow and Coleman pushed him to the minors for a large chunk of last season. Fast forward to this year and he has his place back in the Tampa lineup and is playing fantastic hockey. Does Tampa protect a younger player like Joseph (or others on this list) and risk a higher salaried player like Yanni Gourde, Alex Killorn, or Blake Coleman being selected?

Boris Katchouk - Tampa Bay Lightning

A star in the OHL, Katchouk’s game has not translated to the AHL level as well as Tampa would have hoped thus far. Now in his third pro season, Katchouk will have to show that he can take that next step in his development as an offensive player before the Lightning consider him for a checking line role. He is definitely a potential candidate to be lost in the expansion draft and is also waivers eligible next year.

Taylor Raddysh - Tampa Bay Lightning

Another former OHL star, Raddysh has had similar difficulties translating his game to the AHL level. He has not been terrible, but the average offensive production hasn’t yet warranted a callup for the former Erie Otter. Ultimately, his lack of dynamic skating ability may hold him back from becoming a quality NHL player. However, if he plays well in his third AHL season this year, he could certainly attract attention from Seattle.

Joey Anderson - Toronto Maple Leafs

Acquired from the New Jersey Devils last year in exchange for Andreas Johnsson, Anderson has bounced back and forth between the NHL and the AHL the last three seasons. The former U.S. captain at the World Juniors, Anderson is a high energy, two-way forward who could definitely be an attractive, cheap target for Seattle as it is unlikely that Toronto protects him.

Isac Lundestrom - Anaheim Ducks

Already in his third pro season in North America despite being only 21 years old, the former first round selection has finally cracked the Anaheim Ducks roster full time this season. The two-way forward excels in defensive situations and on the penalty kill and could be a quality checking line option for the Kraken, with a chance to still improve offensively. William Karlsson part deux anyone?

Matthew Phillips - Calgary Flames

His lack of size (5’7) is certainly a deterrent (even if the game has changed to accommodate smaller players), but Phillips is most definitely a talented offensive player. He was an AHL all star last season in his second AHL campaign. This year, he returns to the AHL with Stockton and should be among the league’s scoring leaders.

Adam Mascherin - Dallas Stars

A terrific goal scorer and former OHL standout, Mascherin is entering his third AHL season, undoubtedly a huge one for his development. Thus far, the results have been great as he is among the league’s scoring leaders. At some point this year, it is likely that Dallas gives him a look if he continues to play well, as not only do they have to decide on who to protect for the expansion draft, but Mascherin is waiver eligible next year too.

Tyler Benson - Edmonton Oilers

The former first overall selection in the WHL bantam draft by the Vancouver Giants, Benson has come a long way since then. With two strong AHL seasons under his belt, Benson enters his third year with the hope that he can play well enough to earn a longer look at the NHL level in the event of an Oilers’ injury. It does seem unlikely that the Oilers will protect him from Seattle though.

Rem Pitlick - Nashville Predators

A competitive, goal scoring center and the son of former NHL’er Lance Pitlick, Rem is expansion draft eligible even though he is only in his second professional season. This is due to the Predators burning a year of his ELC in 2019 when he signed out of Minnesota. He has started out the AHL season well and could earn a look from the Predators at some point this year to see if they will want to protect him.

Jonathan Dahlen - San Jose Sharks

Dahlen is a very interesting case. Acquired from Vancouver, Dahlen spent one year in the AHL before returning to Sweden where he has torched the Allsvenskan the last two seasons. The opinions vary about his standing as an NHL prospect, given he plays in the Swedish second league and not the SHL. Where he stands in the Sharks organization remains a mystery, but they will have to protect him from Seattle.

Alexander True - San Jose Sharks

A free agent signing by the Sharks out of the WHL, True has played well in the AHL over the last three years. The Danish forward has seen some limited action in the NHL with mixed results, however his start to this AHL season has been terrific. It seems unlikely that San Jose protects him, but would Seattle consider him as a high upside pick?

Maxim Letunov - San Jose Sharks

Widely considered as one of San Jose’s top forward prospects, Letunov is a huge center (6’4) and a former second round selection. He played very well in the AHL last season and has been on the San Jose taxi squad so far this season. At some point this year, San Jose is going to have to give him more than the three games they gave him last year, especially given their struggles as a team.

Rudolfs Balcers - San Jose Sharks

One of the players traded to Ottawa in the Erik Karlsson trade, Balcers was reacquired by the Sharks earlier this season off waivers. He has proven to be a capable offensive player in the AHL during his career but has not yet taken that step forward to become an NHL player. San Jose is going to give him a serious look this year, along with some other young forwards. It seems likely that Seattle could have more interest in the other Sharks on this list, but who knows how Balcers finishes the season.

Kole Lind - Vancouver Canucks

A former high selection of the Canucks, Lind has steadily improved in each of his AHL seasons thus far. The big, physical winger currently is among the AHL’s leading goal scorers this year and will likely earn a look from Vancouver at some point this season if he continues to play well. Do the Canucks protect him over disappointing talents like Jake Virtanen or Adam Gaudette?

*Special thanks to the capfriendly expansion draft tool which helped to identify those players who are eligible to be selected.

MCKEEN’S 2019-20 YEARBOOK: The Late, Late Show – Players to look for deep in the draft

Scott Wheeler — Fri, 06 Sep 2019 20:17:01 +0000

The biggest available competitive advantage in a fantasy hockey league of any format exists in the draft’s later rounds.

It doesn’t matter if you play in a 10-team, standard-stat, non-keeper league where every player is once again up for grabs each year and your roster size is small enough to fill it with stars, or a 20-team, long-time keeper league where all of the NHL’s established talent is already accounted for and you’re basically picking from a group of players who’ve yet to make the leap.

At the end of the day, when the draft is over, the season is largely decided. You can be a sleuth with in-season trades or waiver-wire picks, but the strength of your team will be dictated not by the number of high-end players taken in the first three or four rounds (everybody gets those!) but by the players you found in the back half of the draft who end up having a season equivalent to those high-end guys, giving you that many more top-of-the-lineup players than your opponents.

Here are some players who could provide early-round value without requiring an early-round pick.

Ottawa Senators Right Wing Drake Batherson (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

Under-the-radar youngsters

If Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko and Cale Makar aren’t already accounted for in your league, they will be before you can blink in this year’s drafts. Look to target these incoming rookies a little later on instead.

Drake Batherson – Ottawa Senators

Due to a combination of market and the fact that he was a 121^st overall pick in 2017, Batherson doesn’t carry the cache of many of the rookies who will be entering the league this season. All of those things work in your favour though. He’s going to be given a prominent role with a Senators team that needs someone to help create offence and I don’t think 20-35-55 production is out of the realm of possibility. Batherson is more of a playmaker than a scorer but he just wrapped up one of the better rookie seasons in the AHL in recent memory and he’s got a chance to be an excellent top-six forward at the next level. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s in the Calder conversation next spring.

Jordan Kyrou – St. Louis Blues

Kyrou’s three points in 16 games during a brief stint in the NHL last season will probably scare off some prospective fantasy hockey managers in favour of more established names like Filip Zadina or Martin Necas, but his talent level is high-end and he’s already one of the best skaters on the planet, both of which should help him make the full-time transition this season. He might take a little longer, but if you’re prepared to be patient then there’s a real chance he gets hot at the midway point and doesn’t look back on his way to a strong NHL career.

Joel Farabee – Philadelphia Flyers

There are some openings in the Flyers roster this season and I’d bet on Farabee to earn one of those jobs out of camp (or quickly earn a promotion out of Lehigh Valley if he doesn’t). Farabee is just one of those players who makes everyone around him better and can play with a variety of linemates. That should make him a strong fit alongside likeminded, versatile centres like Sean Couturier, Kevin Hayes, and Nolan Patrick, who all play off of their linemates rather than requiring all of the attention.

Adam Fox – New York Rangers

In the same way Kyrou may land behind a few other names on the ‘young forwards with notoriety’ list, the same may play out for Fox, who has earned some well-deserved love but still doesn’t have the name value of an Erik Brannstrom in Ottawa or an Evan Bouchard in Edmonton. There’s some risk involved in taking Fox in a non-keeper format because he may end up behind Jacob Trouba and Anthony DeAngelo for power play time. But if the Rangers can give the NCAA’s reigning power play king an opportunity there, he could provide huge value.

Jake Bean – Carolina Hurricanes

A crowded Canes defence may steer some people away from taking the 21-year-old 13^th overall pick from 2016 but Bean is fresh off a season that landed him on the AHL’s All-Rookie Team, as well as a Calder Cup ring, and he looks poised to challenge Haydn Fleury and Gustav Forsling for a top-six role (a battle I think he will win in the short and long term). Bean’s immediate value may be a little muted relative to some of the other rookie class defencemen but there’s top-four power play upside in his game in the not-too-distant future.

Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Mathieu Joseph (Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)

Breakout candidates

Sometimes, the best time to take a player is after a disappointing season, or when they’ve taken so long to develop that people have forgotten about them and moved on to the shiny recent draftees. Here are some candidates who are either poised for big things, marinated at lower levels, or may slip further than they should after a tough run of luck.

Anthony Mantha – Detroit Red Wings

Mantha missed 15 games last season with a hand injury but he paced for a 59-point season across 82 games, was one of the best players at the world championships, and the Red Wings are one of those teams that you look at heading into October and think: “Somebody has to score!” It doesn’t hurt that he’s 6-foot-5 and has arguably the best release on his team. Look for the first of many 30-goal seasons out of Mantha in 2019-2020 – and maybe even a shot at close to 40. Though he’s not going to be around extremely late in a draft, Mantha could fall just far enough to have major value.

Mathieu Joseph – Tampa Bay Lightning

From the outside looking in, Joseph’s 26 points in 70 games last year were nothing to write home about for a 21-year-old rookie on a team with the offence of the Lightning. But unlike Mantha, he was in a situation where he was surrounded by so much talent that his opportunities in offensive situations (or even for ice-time) were severely limited. Below the surface, his production at 5-on-5 was outstanding. As he gets older and the Lightning’s cap situation grows even more challenging, his role will change. And that could happen as early as this year. The departure of J.T. Miller has potentially opened up a spot in Tampa’s top-six and Joseph will be among those who are most likely to get the opportunity to play alongside some of the best forwards on the planet. A big year could follow.

Nick Schmaltz – Arizona Coyotes

Injuries, a trade, and a landing spot with a bad team all contributed to Schmaltz following up a 21-goal, 52-point season, with an ugly plus-minus rating and a seven-goal, 25-point third NHL season. If that means he falls into the later rounds of your draft, don’t hesitate to take him. The Coyotes are going to be improved, Schmaltz is going to be surrounded by better linemates, and 60-plus points isn’t out of the question if all of those things come together.

Devon Toews – New York Islanders

Some players just take longer than others to make the jump. And if you were paying close attention to the Islanders playoff run, you probably noticed that Toews’ days in the AHL are over. Look for him to play all 82 for the Islanders this year and excel. The 25-year-old defenceman is one of the best-kept secrets in hockey. Take him near the end of your draft, you won’t regret it.

Viktor Olofsson – Buffalo Sabres

Speaking of players who take a little longer. Don’t let the fact that Olofsson was taken 181^st overall in 2014 and still hasn’t quote-unquote made it, fool you. After working his way into the SHL’s upper echelon, he was the Rochester Americans’ lone 30-goal scorer as an AHL rookie last season – and showed real signs of being more than a depth guy in his brief stint at the NHL level.

New York Islanders Right Wing Michael Dal Colle (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

Take the so-called bust

Nothing haunts a player more than the perception that he’s a bust among fans. These players often have huge value because nobody wants to be the manager who goes way off the board.

Last year, that player – the kid almost nobody thought would make it because he didn’t immediately live up to expectations – was Dylan Strome, who posted 51 points in 58 games with the Blackhawks after he’d been written off due to mediocre skating. Get into a habit of taking those players. If they don’t work out, you’ve given up almost nothing in their pursuit. But oftentimes they do work out and it’s added value.

Michael Dal Colle – New York Islanders

Dal Colle, a fifth overall pick in 2014, attracted a lot of attention when he posted just 24 points in 60 AHL games in 2017-2018. That may mean many managers didn’t bother paying attention to his trajectory last season, when he was a point per game player in the AHL. Despite some kinks, he’s still a 6-foot-3 winger with high-end finishing touch around the net. That has a chance of fitting in well on a team that didn’t have a single 30-goal scorer last season.

Alex Nylander – Chicago Blackhawks

There’s no denying it: Nylander’s trajectory has been disappointing for an eighth overall pick who showed so much promise before turning pro. He found out the hard way that despite having a similar skillset to his older brother than his lack of the same high-end speed meant that he couldn’t play the perimeter game he dominated with at lower levels. But at 21 and following a trade to a team that obviously covets him enough to deal a significant young defender, Nylander has a chance to really make waves in Chicago – just like Strome did.

Olli Juolevi – Vancouver Canucks

Should the Canucks have taken Juolevi fifth overall, ahead of Matthew Tkachuk and Clayton Keller? Hell no. Not then. Not now. But Juolevi had begun to show real promise as a rookie defenceman in the AHL with the Utica Comets before his 2018-2019 season was cut short by knee surgery. The long layoff may mean he starts the season back in the AHL but Juolevi still has the talent to be a second-pairing defenceman during the next chapter for the tumultuous Canucks.

Valeri Nichushkin – Colorado Avalanche

You would need a really deep league to probably justify a Nichushkin selection but the former 10^th overall pick knows that after a whirlwind six seasons in Dallas, that his one-year deal in Colorado is his last NHL chance. And last chances occasionally breed results for players as talented as Nichushkin. He might have travelled one of the weirdest active paths in the NHL. After a promising 34-point rookie season with the Stars as a teenager in 2013-2014, Nichuskin’s status in Dallas slowly began to waver and he left for a two-season stint in the KHL before returning last year to post zero goals and 10 points in 57 games of limited ice-time with the Stars. There are going to be some interesting battles for bottom-six ice-time with the Avs this fall and I wouldn’t be shocked if Nichushkin scratched his way onto the third line, or the net-front role on the second powerplay. Proceed with caution on this one though (or maybe even leave him on the waiver wire and pay close attention to the start of his season before taking the plunge).

Scott Wheeler is The Athletic’s national NHL Draft reporter. His work has also appeared in the Toronto Star, the Globe and Mail, the Toronto Sun, and the National Post.