Matt Martin – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – NEW YORK ISLANDERS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 07 Oct 2023 18:47:45 +0000

RALEIGH, NC - APRIL 25: New York Islanders Goalie Ilya Sorokin (30) prepares for a faceoff during game 5 of the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs between the New York Islanders and the Carolina Hurricanes on April 25, 2023 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Katherine Gawlik/Icon Sportswire)

Review: Since John Tavares departed in the summer of 2018, the Islanders have stayed competitive through a goaltending-first approach. It can’t even really be called a defense-first approach, given the Islanders ranked 22nd in 5-on-5 expected goals against (181.77) and 24^th in all situations (184) in 2022-23, indicating that their defense separated from their goaltending was unimpressive. Ilya Sorokin overcame that subpar defense though, posting a 31-22-7 record, 2.34 GAA and .924 save percentage in 62 contests en route to finishing second in Vezina Trophy voting. If not for Sorokin, the Islanders would have had a miserable year because not only did New York struggle defensively, but they also finished 22nd in the league with 2.95 goals per game. Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello tried to bolster the offense by acquiring Bo Horvat from Vancouver, who had 31 goals and 54 points in 49 contests at the time of the move, but he struggled with the Islanders, recording just 16 points in 30 outings. To make matters worse, Mathew Barzal suffered a lower-body injury shortly after the Horvat trade, preventing the duo from developing chemistry. Even with all that, the Islanders squeaked into the playoffs with a 42-31-9 record before losing in the first round to Carolina.

What’s Changed? The Islanders made no significant changes, but they did lock up Scott Mayfield and Pierre Engvall to seven-year deals, backup goaltender Semyon Varlamov to a four-year contract and, most importantly, Sorokin to an eight-year, $66 million deal. So, even if there wasn’t any meaningful turnover, Lamoriello stayed busy over the summer.

What would success look like? Sorokin needs to stay dominant to continue to mask the Islanders’ defensive issues, but if New York really wants to rise above mediocrity, they need more than just him. They need Horvat to adapt to his new team, which will be a far easier task if he gets to play alongside a healthy Barzal. If those two have a good year, the Islanders might end up average offensively, which would be enough for Sorokin to deliver the W on most nights.

What could go wrong? A long-term injury to Sorokin would of course be devastating given the Islanders’ reliance on him. To be fair, they do at least have Varlamov as a solid Plan B, but he’s 35 now and would be a significant downgrade from Sorokin. There’s also no guarantee that Horvat will be a great offensive leader. He was likely overperforming before the acquisition, as evidenced by his unusually high pre-trade 21.7 shooting percentage (his career average is 13.7). Horvat should at least be fine regardless, but they need more than a merely solid performance given his $8.5 million cap hit, and the team’s limited scoring threats.

Top Breakout Candidate: The Islanders don’t have any great breakout candidates, but one to keep an eye on is Simon Holmstrom. He had just six goals and nine points in 50 contests with the Islanders last year, but he was averaging only 11:06 of ice time. Taken with the 23rd overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, Holmstrom has upside, and it’s clear the Islanders are hungry for offensive weapons, but he might still need more time to develop and may start the campaign in the AHL.

Forwards

Mathew Barzal

An electrifying skater who can carry the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone at an elite level, Barzal is a sensational play driver who has the potential to be a serious scoring threat, but that offensive breakthrough hasn’t quite materialized either. He scored 85 points as a rookie in 2017-2018 and has gone five straight seasons with 62 points or less. Barzal finished with 51 points (14 G, 37 A) in 58 games last season, which is fine, but it is still not making the most of his significant skills. He opened last season with 25 points in his first 22 games, but that included just two goals. While he is ostensibly a center, his inability to win faceoffs does make him a candidate to shift to the wing. He has won 42.3% of his faceoffs for his career but won a miserable 35.6% last season. With the Islanders relatively deep down the middle, they could consider turning Barzal loose on the wing. The Islanders’ tendency to play a grinding style has not brought out the best in Barzal’s production but the 26-year-old has the skills required to be a point per game scorer. While there is a world in which Barzal gets to that level again, it would be more reasonable to expect, say, 65 points while recognizing that there remains untapped potential when it comes to his offensive output.

Brock Nelson

After tallying 36 goals last season, and 37 the year before, Nelson is one of those 30 players to have scored at least 30 goals in each of the past two seasons. While Nelson is not a dominant play driver, the results have typically gone well for the Islanders with him on the ice. During five-on-five play, the Islanders have outscored the opposition with Nelson on the ice in eight of the past nine seasons. Last season, it was to the tune of 71 goals for and 45 goals against. He opened the season with 33 points (15 G, 18 A) and 96 shots on goal in his first 32 games. He could not maintain that scoring pace, in part because he could no longer generate three shots on goal per game. At 6’ 4”, Nelson has excellent size but is not a notable physical presence. He can use his reach, however, to gain space near the opposing goal and he is excellent at reading the play and making himself available in shooting position when the opportunity to score arises. Scoring 75 points last season was the first time in his career than Nelson surpassed 60 points. It would be reasonable enough this season to expect Nelson to record his third consecutive 30-goal campaign and 60 points.

Bo Horvat

Even though he opened last season with 31 goals in 49 games for Vancouver, while scoring on 21.7% of his shots, Horvat managed seven goals in 30 games with the Islanders, scoring on 8.1% of his shots. Regression can be a beast. He still finished with 38 goals, which put him in good company as one of 30 players to record 30 goals in each of the past two seasons. He effectively priced himself out of Vancouver by scoring 28 goals in 37 games and even if he was not going to maintain that pace, that production changed what Horvat could command on his next contract. Horvat is a sturdy forward who does not play a particularly physical game but does use that strength to get himself into shooting position and he had success playing the bumper position on the Canucks power play, scoring 25 power play goals in the past two seasons. After signing a big-ticket contract with the Islanders, Horvat will face massive expectations. Even if he does not match last season’s career-best output, Horvat could tally 30 goals and 60 points, quality production from a first-line center.

Anders Lee

An enormous physical presence, Lee has scored 28 goals in back-to-back seasons, a threshold he has hit five times in his career. He is not terribly fleet afoot, but plays to his strengths, carving out space around the net and daring the defense to do something about it. He is an excellent net front presence on the power play but at even strength, he still attacks the goal and gets comfortable at the top of the crease. As a result, Lee ranked first in individual high danger shot attempts and fourth in expected goals per 60 minutes during five-on-five play last season. He started strong, with 18 points (8 G, 10 A) in 19 games to open the season, but faded down the stretch, managing just four points (2 G, 2 A) in his last 15 games. His shot rate declined as the season progressed, too, which explains at least some of the reason behind his scoring dip. Lee should still be able to do damage in front of the opposition net, possibly challenging for 30 goals. He does tend to finish more than he sets up, however, so it would be reasonable to expect Lee to match last season’s total of 50 points.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Although he managed just 13 goals last season, his lowest total since 2016-2017, Pageau remains a strong two-way presence for the Islanders, which includes starting many more of his shifts in the defensive zone, finishing with an offensive zone start rate of 27.9% last season, freeing up the Islanders’ other centers for more offensive zone starts. While not especially big, Pageau plays a relentless physical style and recorded a career high 175 hits in 70 games in 2022-2023. He is also an ace in the faceoff dot and won a career best 57.9% of his draws. Pageau’s possession numbers tell an interesting story. He had a 46.3% Corsi percentage, worst among Islanders regulars. He also had an expected goals percentage of 51.5%, which suggests that Pageau was generating higher quality chances while suppressing higher quality chances in the defensive zone. Pageau did have a strong finish last season. Returning from an upper-body injury, Pageau had 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in his last 14 regular-season games, though he only mustered a single assist in six playoff games. Pageau has been consistent in terms of his offensive production with the Islanders, so it is fair to anticipate that he could produce another 40-point season in 2023-2024.

Kyle Palmieri

Following a couple of seasons with a lower shooting percentage, Palmieri started to find the mark again last season and finished with 16 goals in 55 games. After a slow start, Palmieri returned from an upper-body injury in mid-January and picked up his production from that point. In his last 34 games, Palmieri produced 24 points (10 G, 14 A) with 83 shots on goal while playing 17:44 per game. He then added five points (2 G, 3 A) in six playoff games. At his peak, Palmieri had a five-year stretch during which he scored at least 24 goals in each season. He is not at that level now, but the 32-year-old winger is still capable of providing secondary scoring if given the chance. While Palmieri did have 33 points in 55 games last season, that also came with an on-ice shooting percentage of 11.9%, which was his highest in more than a decade. Thus, Palmieri could be expected to contribute 35-40 points for the Islanders this season.

Pierre Engvall

Acquired from the Maple Leafs at the trade deadline, Engvall saw more ice time with the Islanders and finished the season with a career high 17 goals. A 6’ 5” left winger, who can also play some center, Engvall does not use his size to maximum effectiveness, but he was a consistent play driver in Toronto and that continued after moving to New York. In 18 games with the Islanders, Engvall had a Corsi percentage of 56.9% and expected goals percentage of 55.4%, both of which were best among Islanders that played more than a handful of games. A solid third line forward, Engvall can contribute in a secondary role on both the power play and penalty kill. There is an opportunity awaiting him with the Islanders, a chance to play more than he did in Toronto and that could give the lanky 27-year-old forward a chance at the best production of his career. In the 21 games that Engvall played more than 15 minutes last season, he produced 14 points (8 G, 6 A). That could be a chicken-and-the-egg situation, where he was getting more ice time because he had contributed offensively, but there is some indication that Engvall could have some untapped offensive potential. If Engvall produces 35 points, that would match his career high, but if he receives notably more ice time with the Islanders, that ceiling could climb higher, perhaps into the 40-to-45-point range.

Oliver Wahlstrom

The 11^th pick in the 2018 Draft, Wahlstrom has not yet lived up to expectations, but he has shown flashes of the potential that made him a high pick. Although the Islanders have been very conservative with Wahlstrom, not playing him much more than 12 minutes per game, he has shown an ability to generate shots, a willingness to play the body, and a competent level of defensive play. He suffered a knee injury against Pittsburgh on December 27th, ending his season so that hindered Wahlstrom’s development, but there should still be a chance for him to earn a regular spot among the Islanders’ top nine forwards, where the 23-year-old can prove that he has 20-goal upside. There is a wide range of potential outcomes for Wahlstrom. If he continues to play fourth-line minutes, he can be productive in that limited role, but if he gets a real opportunity to play higher up the depth chart, Wahlstrom has the potential to deliver 20 goals and 40 points, maybe even more.

Defense

Noah Dobson

Taken with the pick after Oliver Wahlstrom in 2018, Dobson has emerged as the top scoring option on the Islanders defense, producing 49 points (13 G, 36 A) last season after putting up 51 points the year before. His offensive impact is what helps Dobson stand out, though his play away from the puck could use some shoring up if he is going to reach his full potential. There is naturally a lot to like about a 6’ 4”, right shot defenseman who is 23 and has put up a total of 100 points in the past two seasons, but Dobson has more room to grow. He finished the season with 11 points (1 G, 10 A) in the last 13 games, but his ice time was down during that stretch, below 19 minutes per game when he had played over 20 minutes per game previously. In any event, Dobson is the most dangerous offensive threat on the Islanders blueline. He has had back-to-back 13-goal seasons and should be expected to hit 50 points, maybe more if the Islanders can generate more offense as a team.

Ryan Pulock

Known primarily for his booming shot when he came into the league, Pulock had become a sound defender but his play without the puck has dipped in the past couple of seasons and the Islanders allowed 2.91 expected goals against per 60 minutes of five-on-five play with Pulock on the ice last season, the highest rate of his career. The Islanders have invested heavily in Pulock, too, but he could use a rebound season to give the club more confidence in his role as a cornerstone piece moving forward. He was one of 22 defensemen to record at least 125 hits and 125 blocked shots last season. Pulock does not have the same kind of role on the power play that he had earlier in his career and that inhibits his offensive output. He had 26 points last season and is likely going to be in the range of 25-30 points in 2023-2024.

Adam Pelech

A premier defensive defenseman who does not get enough recognition because he does not contribute much offensively, the 28-year-old blueliner is elite when it comes to suppressing scoring chances. Among the 99 defensemen that have logged 3,000 five-on-five minutes in the past three seasons, Pelech ranks 11^th in high danger shot attempts against per 60 minutes and fifth in high danger goals against per 60. While Pelech does not get nearly the recognition that he deserves, the Islanders have signed him through the 2028-2029 season, an indication that his shutdown defensive play is not going unnoticed with his own team. As outstanding as Pelech is defensively, he is not a big point producer. Based on recent seasons, 25 points if a fair expectation for Pelech, even if it does not represent his real value to the club.

Scott Mayfield

After scoring a career-high 24 points (5 G, 19 A) while playing a career-high 21:02 per game last season, Mayfield was headed for unrestricted free agency, but then the Islanders locked him up with a seven-year contract, which seems like a big commitment for a defenseman who will turn 31 early in the 2023-2024 season, but with a cap hit of $3.5 million per season, it’s a pretty reasonable price to pay. Mayfield is 6’ 5” and 220 pounds and while he can play a physical game, it is not an overwhelming part of his contribution. He is a capable top-four defenseman with some offensive limitations, but it’s not hard to understand why the Islanders want to keep him around. A strong finish last season, which included seven points (1 G, 6 A) in the last 12 games, propelled Mayfield to 24 points, the high-water mark for his career. Barring a sudden and unexpected change in role, he should fall in the range of 20-25 points again.

Alexander Romanov

Acquired from the Montreal Canadiens last summer, Romanov’s first season with the Islanders saw him finish with a modest career high of 22 points (2 G, 20 A) but Romanov continued to provide blocked shots (129) and hits (198), which is fine, but his overall play left room for improvement. The 23-year-old has the physical tools, but it remains to be seen if he can put it all together and thrive in a top-four role. He faces some quality competition on the Islanders blueline, so Romanov will have to earn his way into more minutes, but he does give the Islanders insurance if some of their top four options falter. Romanov may not be a big scorer, but he is on a defense corps with few offensive options, too. Beyond Dobson, most of the Islanders defenders can be expected to score 20-plus points and Romanov fits into that group, too.

Goaltending

Ilya Sorokin

If the 2021-22 season with Igor Shesterkin’s coming-out party, the 2022-23 campaign was the league’s welcoming celebration for Ilya Sorokin across the East River. Sorokin’s arrival in North America was almost overshadowed by Shesterkin’s own dazzling debut – but thanks to a heroic season that pushed the New York Islanders back into the playoffs, Sorokin was given his due in the form of a second-place Vezina voting finish and one of the league’s best statistical performances of the year. Sorokin put up an almost laughably consistent display with his third NHL season, bringing his career save percentage through his first 136 NHL games to a mind-boggling .924 in all situations.

Sorokin quieted any doubters who worried that the Islanders weren’t in it to win it with his third straight year topping a .700 quality start percentage, proving that he’s here to stay – and here to win. And while he still looks like he’s added some control to a game that always seemed to serve as a more high-flying foil to the more controlled Shesterkin’s game while the pair competed over in Russia, Sorokin showed this past year that he’s willing to have a little fun with things, too; now that he’s really come into his own, he’s started to add some flair to his tendency to remain constantly in motion and his inclination to make the big save when a smaller one would do. His tracking remains as sharp as ever, and he did continue to show enough structure and positioning to suggest that he could be the Marc-Andre Fleury to Shesterkin’s Lundqvist; he’s a lot of fun to watch, and he’s more than willing to show that he knows it, too.

Projected starts: 55-60

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – O’Reilly in Toronto, Orlov in Boston – Beauvillier, Domi, Novak, Girard plus more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 24 Feb 2023 16:53:17 +0000

TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 18: Toronto Maple Leafs center Ryan O'Reilly (90) readies himself prior to the face-off in the first period during the NHL regular season game between the Montreal Canadiens and the Toronto Maple Leafs on February 18, 2023 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Gavin Napier/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the trade business is starting to pick up, so look to Ryan O’Reilly in Toronto and Dmitry Orlov heading to Boston, plus Anthony Beauvillier, Max Domi, Thomas Novak, Samuel Girard and more that could be worth adding to your fantasy squad.

#1 The Toronto Maple Leafs made a big splash ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline, acquiring center Ryan O’Reilly from the St. Louis Blues. O’Reilly was having a rough year in St. Louis, with 19 points (12 G, 7 A) in 40 games, but has a whole new opportunity in Toronto. He is centering the second line, between John Tavares and Mitch Marner. In his first three games with the Leafs, O’Reilly has five points, including a hat trick at Buffalo on Tuesday.

#2 Coming with O’Reilly in the trade to Toronto is Noel Acciari, a versatile forward who does offer some banger league fantasy value. Acciari has 19 points (11 G, 8 A) in 57 games, so he is not a big scorer, but he has 181 hits, including 13 in three games for Toronto. Acciari’s 11 goals and 19 points is the most of any forward with more than 170 hits.

#3 Having traded already traded Vladimir Tarasenko and Niko Mikkola before dealing O’Reilly and Acciari, the Blues are left with a thin lineup. That could provide an opportunity to find value from players that might not be top of mind when it comes to fantasy value. Brandon Saad returned from injury to skate on the top line with Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. Ivan Barbashev still has a role in the Blues’ top six, at least until he is moved out before the deadline. That could open the door for Josh Leivo or Sammy Blais to see a more significant role down the stretch.

#4 The Boston Bruins did not stand pat with their league-leading record, making a trade with the Washington Capitals on Thursday for defenseman Dmitry Orlov and right winger Garnet Hathaway. Orlov has decent fantasy value in deeper leagues, even though he has never scored more than 35 points in a season. He is playing more than 22 minutes per game this season, the second highest average of his career, and his 88 hits in 43 games is a higher rate than he has recorded in any of his previous 10 NHL seasons.

#5 Garnet Hathaway’s contributions are not that different from Acciari. Hathaway had 16 points (9 G, 7 A) and 198 hits in 59 games for Washington. That style of play should endear him to the Bruins faithful and, playing for a strong Bruins team, might give Hathaway some banger league appeal. With Orlov departing, it looks like Trevor van Riemsdyk will see a bigger role with the Capitals, which includes time on the second power play unit. In his past eight games, van Riemsdyk has contributed four points (2 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal, so it would be too soon to recommend him in most leagues, but it is worth keeping an eye on his role.

#6 A new role with a new team can make all the difference. Just look at Anthony Beauvillier and what he has done with Vancouver since getting acquired in the Bo Horvat trade. Beauvillier has eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 23 shots on goal while playing more than 19 minutes per game in his first nine games for the Canucks. Skating on the top line with Elias Pettersson and playing first unit power play is a better situation than what Beauvillier was typically afforded during his time with the New York Islanders.

#7 While the trade deadline spotlight in Chicago is focused on Patrick Kane, do not overlook Max Domi, who is on a tear of his own and could be moved. Domi has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 13 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. He has 46 points (17 G, 29 A) in 57 games, the third highest point total of his career, while playing a career high 18:14 per game.

#8 One of my favorite value players, Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner is still available in many leagues and in his past 13 games, Jenner has 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 54 shots on goal. Add in 32 hits and a ton of faceoffs and Jenner can contribute to a lot of fantasy categories. Getting to center Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine on the Blue Jackets’ top line has its benefits.

#9 While the popular opinion is that the Colorado Avalanche will acquire a second line center before the trade deadline, they have been getting quality production in that spot from J.T. Compher. In his past 14 games, Compher has produced 14 points (3 G, 11 A) while averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game. The Avs are running Mikko Rantanen on Compher’s right wing and that is a prime opportunity for Compher, who has already hit a career high with 38 points (11 G, 27 A) in 55 games.

#10 Known more for his defensive acumen, Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli becomes a more dangerous player when he is contributing offensively, too, and that is how it has been going lately. In his past seven games, Cirelli has eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 16 shots on goal.

#11 With Ryan Johansen suffering a season-ending injury, the Nashville Predators are getting thin down the middle of the ice. That does put second year pivot Thomas Novak into the spotlight, though. Novak has eight points (4 G, 4 A) during a four-game point streak and played a career-high 18:39 in Thursday’s win at San Jose.

#12 There have been ups and downs for second year Carolina Hurricanes right winger Seth Jarvis, but he appears to be hitting his groove. He has six points (4 G, 2 A) in the past three games and has recorded at least three shots on goal in six straight games. He has returned to skating on Carolina’s top line, with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov, so Jarvis could be poised for a strong finish, though his long-term place on the top line could depend on what the Hurricanes do before the trade deadline.

#13 Although the San Jose Sharks are not headed to the postseason, veteran center Logan Couture is having another productive campaign. In his past nine games, Couture has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 22 shots on goal. He has 48 points (20 G, 28 A) in 59 games, giving him more than 0.80 points per game. The last time he finished a season with that per-game scoring rate was 2018-2019. It is fair to have some skepticism about Couture’s production, however, as his wingers are Michael Eyssimont and Alexander Barabanov, not exactly established premier scoring wingers, and there is a good chance that San Jose’s lineup will get depleted by trades before the deadline.

#14 With Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar again out of the lineup, it is worth paying more attention to puck moving Avs blueliner Samuel Girard. In his past 10 games, the 24-year-old defenseman has 11 points (1 G, 10 A) and 22 shots on goal while playing more than 23 minutes per game. He does most of his damage at even strength, too, with five of his 23 points this season coming on the power play.

#15 His track record leaves me wary, but Columbus Blue Jackets netminder Joonas Korpisalo has undeniably had a strong season and, with a contract that expires at season’s end, he could be a possible trade deadline addition for a team looking to stabilize its goaltending. Korpisalo has a .913 save percentage in 27 games, which ranks 16^th among goaltenders that have appeared in at least 20 games. The lure for any contending teams is that Korpisalo was outstanding in his only postseason experience, posting a .941 save percentage in nine games during the 2019-2020 “bubble” Playoffs.

#16 Leading the Pacific Division, the Vegas Golden Knights have lost goaltenders Logan Thompson and Adin Hill to injuries, prompting the club to recall Laurent Brossoit from the American Hockey League. Brossoit has stopped 62 of 67 shots in two starts since getting pressed into action and he will have value as long as he is going to play. Over his career, he has been an adequate backup, albeit one that does not play very frequently. Can he handle a starter’s role, even in the short term for Vegas? It could be worth a waiver add to find out.

#17 The New York Islanders are in a dire situation now as they battle for a playoff spot. Centers Mathew Barzal and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are among the five forwards out of the lineup. That means Matt Martin is skating on the top line and Kyle Palmieri is on the first power play unit. In his past six games, Martin has five points (2 G, 3 A), 11 shots on goal and 21 hits. In deep leagues, that’s worth a look, even if it is on a short-term basis. After returning from an injury last month, Palmieri has put up nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 32 shots and 21 hits in 13 games. Given his track record, and the fact that he gets more ice time, Palmieri is an even better addition for fantasy managers.

#18 Philadelphia Flyers leading scorer Travis Konecny is dealing with an upper-body injury and that means looking to young wingers who might get more of an opportunity. Owen Tippett has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 36 shots on goal in the past 12 games. He played more than 20 minutes in Florida’s loss at Edmonton on Tuesday, the first time since November that he played more than 20 minutes in a game.

#19 In 2023, the leaders in terms of individual expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 100 minutes): John Tavares, Brady Tkachuk, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matthew Tkachuk, Kevin Fiala, Zach Hyman, Boone Jenner, Connor McDavid, Michael Eyssimont, and Timo Meier. There are a lot of expected names there, but Jenner and Eyssimont stand out for the company they are keeping in this regard. At the other end of the spectrum, there are some surprises, too. Naturally, fourth-line forwards tend to be the ones generating the fewest expected goals, but there are others. Among the 401 forwards that have played at least 100 minutes since January 1, Mitch Marner ranks 378^th. Some other notables: Joel Farabee (373), Andrew Copp (359), and Sam Steel (353).

#20 The most dominant line in hockey probably comes as a surprise. According to Evolving Hockey, there are 59 lines that have played at least 200 minutes together during five-on-five play. The same line ranks first in Corsi For percentage, Expected Goals Percentage, and Goals For Percentage. That line is the Calgary Flames trio of Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, and Blake Coleman. In the past 18 games, Mangiapane has 15 points (6 G, 9 A) and 51 shots on goal, Backlund has 20 points (6 G, 14 A) and 63 shots on goal, and Coleman has 13 points (5 G, 8 A) and 50 shots on goal.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – NEW YORK ISLANDERS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 20:23:05 +0000

BOSTON, MA - MAY 31: New York Islanders defenseman Noah Dobson (8) plays a pass along the blue line on the power play during Game 2 of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Second Round between the Boston Bruins and the New York Islanders on May 31, 2021, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.(Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Mathew Barzal

A dynamic skater who can be an electrifying presence on the ice, Barzal has not been able to duplicate his 85-point rookie season in 2017-2018 and last season he finished with 59 points in 73 games. Barzal is exceptional when it comes to transporting the puck from his defensive zone into the offensive zone – his skating ability allows him to dart and dodge his way through neutral ice. He is far and away the most dangerous offensive performer on the team, but his defensive work was suspect last season, so that limits the value of his overall impact. He also won a career-best 46.3% of his faceoffs last season, so there is still room to improve on the dot. Barzal is 25, so he is in his prime, and given his rare ability to carry the puck from one end of the ice to the other, he remains a valuable player. It’s up to the Islanders to find the right pieces that will fit around him. 65 points is an entirely reasonable forecast for Barzal, but it also feels like underselling him. There is potential for more, but he might not have the supporting cast to help him get back to scoring more than a point per game. Maybe a new coach behind the Islanders bench will help open things up for the Isles and if that is the case, Barzal could benefit as much as anyone.

Brock Nelson

Coming off a season in which he tallied a career-high 37 goals and 59 points, Nelson has been a productive second-line center who has surpassed 50 points three times in the past four seasons. A six-time 20-goal scorer who also scored 18 goals in 56 games during the COVID-shortened 2020-2021 season, Nelson has a track record of proven performance. With solid defensive play as part of his contribution, Nelson has been quite effective. He has been an above-average finisher throughout his career, owning a shooting percentage of 14.2%, but he will not likely duplicate last season when he scored on 21.6% of his shots. Even if 37 goals are an aberration, Nelson has shown that he can score, so 25-30 goals and 55 points is in line with Nelson’s past performance.

Anders Lee

The Islanders’ captain is a 6-foot-3, 235-pound power forward who returned from a torn ACL to score 28 goals last season, the sixth time in his career that he buried at least 20 goals. Since 2016-2017, Lee has scored 162 goals, ranking 22^nd in the league over that time. While his offensive production was back to typical levels, his defensive play was not as strong, so that is an area of some concern given that Lee is 32 years old and maybe not moving quite as well as he did during his peak years. Nevertheless, he is an established and proven scorer who has thrived on Barzal’s wing and that should continue in 2022-2023. That should bring Lee 25-plus goals and 45 points, which is fine, but may not necessarily elevate the attack enough in the way that the Islanders need.

Anthony Beauvillier

A 25-year-old winger who has flashed potential at various times through his six NHL seasons, Beauvillier is coming off what may be the worst season of his career. He finished the season with 12 goals and 34 points, his fewest goals since his rookie season. He has yet to hit 40 points in a single NHL season, so when his defensive play slipped last season, the overall results were poor. While some of those results would be better by simply scoring on his career shooting percentage, 11.9% of his shots instead of last season’s 7.8% shooting percentage, the play away from the puck needs to be improved if Beauvillier is going to remain secure in a top-six role. 15-20 goals and his first 40-point season is still an achievable target for Beauvillier.

Josh Bailey

Heading into his 15^th season with the Islanders, Bailey has been a capable second line forward that can contribute offensively, and last season was the fifth time in the past six seasons that he surpassed 40 points. He is a smart player and good passer but his ability to drive play has faded in recent seasons and Bailey is a reluctant shooter – his 1.18 shots on goal per game last season was his lowest rate since his rookie season. With his game in decline, it might be natural for the Islanders to elevate others ahead of him on the depth chart, but Bailey has been resilient and maintained a second line role. If he stays in that spot, another 45-point season should be expected.

Kyle Palmieri

A consistent scoring threat earlier in his career, which included five straight seasons with more than 20 goals, the 31-year-old winger has not had that kind of productivity for the Islanders and last season’s 15 goals and 33 points was his lowest in a full season since 2014-2015. Percentages play a part in that decreased production. While he is not generating shots at the same rate as he did during his peak seasons, Palmieri has scored on 9.1% of his shots in 86 games with the Islanders after scoring on 13.2% of his shots in 397 games for the New Jersey Devils. He has not been a major factor on the Islanders power play, which naturally hurts his overall numbers, but it is notable that even with lower scoring totals, Palmieri’s ability to drive play has been relatively strong with the Isles, which makes him a solid top-six winger, but maybe the production could return to a higher level with an increased power play role. With declining production in recent seasons, he might be a lot to ask for 20 goals or 40 points out of Palmieri, but that should still be in his sights if he can get a special teams boost.

Zach Parise

Now 38, Parise had a bit of a bounce-back season in 2021-2022, at least relative to the previous season in Minnesota. 15 goals and 35 points is a long way from Parise’s best production in the league, but he generated enough to be a competent middle six winger and getting that on a league-minimum contract is an obvious net positive for the Islanders. He also managed 1.68 shots on goal per game, his lowest since his rookie season in 2005-2006, so there are signs of decline that are to be expected for a player in his late thirties. How much Parise produces will be tied to ice time that could easily decline, but if he stays in a top-nine role for the Islanders, he should be able to contribute 30-35 points.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

A reliable third line center, the 29-year-old played 17:40 per game last season, falling behind only Mathew Barzal (18:01 ATOI) and, just barely, Brock Nelson (17:41 ATOI), so the Islanders are comfortable with Pageau playing a significant role, though he is probably limited to some degree by the quality of his linemates. Nevertheless, Pageau is a solid contributor who had 39 points last season and has surpassed 40 points a couple of times in his career. He plays a sound defensive game, too, making him an enviable third line center. If he produces 40 points, that could offer some value. If he adds to that with another 170-hit season, Pageau would have very specific category appeal. He has also won 55.8% of his draws since joining the Islanders, so Pageau does have a knack for doing those little things that can help a team win.

Oliver Wahlstrom

A 22-year-old winger who can really fire the puck, Wahlstrom has been eased into his NHL role, logging 12 minutes per game for a couple of years, but he could be ready to handle more responsibility because not only can he shoot the puck, but Wahlstrom has been able to play a sound defensive game in his limited role. With more ice time and a shooting percentage likely to improve on last season’s 8.3%, there is a reasonable path to Wahlstrom scoring 20 goals in the near future, possibly even this season. Without knowing that he will have an increased role with more ice time, though, Wahlstrom should probably be looked at for 15 goals and 25-30 points. An opportunity waits with Barzal and Lee on the top line representing tempting upside but use caution where you pick him.

DEFENSE

Noah Dobson

Emerging as a first-rate puck-moving defenseman, the 22-year-old erupted for 51 points in his third NHL season. After playing a depth role in his first two seasons, Dobson saw his ice time spike to more than 21 minutes per game as he became the quarterback for the Islanders power play, scoring 22 of his 51 points with the man advantage, which was tied for eighth among defensemen. On a team with a lot of veteran talent, Dobson is still young enough to be on the ascent of his career, so if he can continue to develop, he could become a major factor on the Islanders blueline. Since Dobson’s percentages weren’t wildly inflated last season, looking for another 50-point season is not unreasonable. Maybe a bit optimistic, but he is a young player that is certainly trending up in his career.

Ryan Pulock

Earlier in his career, the 27-year-old looked like he would be a power play threat because of his booming shot, but that was not enough to really handle the job, and that’s okay. He has rounded into a steady top-four role, playing more than 21 minutes per game for four straight seasons. He has blocked more than 100 shots in four straight seasons and has registered more than 1.50 hits per game for each of the past five seasons, yet Pulock plays an exceptionally clean game. In the past two seasons, he has played that physical style for 112 games and has a total of 10 penalty minutes, the fewest of any defenseman to appear in at least 100 games over the past two seasons. It should not be overlooked how much value exists in a defenseman that does not take penalties. Pulock is still capable of producing 30 points, but his offensive ceiling is lowered because his power play contributions have been getting smaller.

Adam Pelech

A standout defensive performer, in the classical sense because Pelech finished with a career high 28 points last season, but he is a first-pairing beast who has excelled in a shutdown role. He is a strong skater and while he is 6-foot-3 and will get involved physically, Pelech is not a punishing hitter. He is smart and responsible and massively underrated by many because he does not have gaudy point totals. Nevertheless, Pelech is a dominant play-driving defenseman who not only handles the toughest matchups, but excels in those matchups, so he should not be some hidden gem of a player, rather he should be getting more Norris Trophy votes if the 28-year-old continues to play as well as he has in recent years. The Islanders have outscored opponents 106-75 with Pelech on the ice in 5-on-5 situations in the past two seasons, 25 points is a fair expectation for Pelech but it barely scratches the surface when trying to represent his value to the Islanders.

Alexander Romanov

Acquired from Montreal in a blockbuster draft day trade, Romanov showed some potential through his first two seasons with Montreal, especially as a physical presence last season when he recorded 227 hits. He was one of 11 defensemen to finish with more than 140 hits and 140 blocked shots last season. The question is whether the 22-year-old can develop and display more skill because his offensive contributions have been very limited while he has had more of an impact defensively. He does not have to turn into an offensive star, but some improvement over his first two seasons with the Canadiens could help Romanov establish his credentials as a top pair defenseman. If he could score 20 points this season that would be a win, but Romanov is also likely to record rare hit and blocked shot totals, enough that he might still have fantasy appeal despite his lack of scoring.

GOALTENDING

Ilya Sorokin

It’s almost a little unfair that Ilya Sorokin has come into the league at the same time as Igor Shesterkin; one might wonder what sort of buzz he’d be producing if he had been the first one to arrive in the NHL, and just how much better his finish would have been in Vezina voting in the process. As it stands, he finished his 2021-22 campaign with a .925 save percentage and a .712 quality start percentage, posting 37 quality starts and a whopping seven shutouts over his 52-game campaign for the New York Islanders. And despite that performance – which in some years would have been a clear-cut Vezina Finalist performance – he still finished sixth in voting for the league’s most prestigious goaltending award; he barely made buzz in comparison to the hype happening on the other side of the city for the rival New York team, which is hard to consider anything but disappointing.

Luckily, the Islanders are set to watch him succeed for a long time yet. Even though the team has been the butt of too many jokes this past summer thanks to an antiquated general manager and a disappointing lack of free agent signings, the team should still be set up to help Sorokin establish himself as one of the most powerful netminders in the Metropolitan Division. In an era when most teams are struggling to figure out who to tandem and when a replacement for the mid-2000’s goaltending giants will emerge from their prospect pools, Sorokin’s smooth skating – combined with a willingness to temper some of his energy and structure his positioning a bit more for the North American game – will keep him thriving in the league for as long as he wants to play.

Projected starts: 55-60

So Long Island, T – New York Islanders 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 18:04:21 +0000

REVIEW/STATE OF PLAY - For the second year in a row they missed the playoffs finishing seventh in their division. It was the first season for coach Doug Weight who took over after six seasons from Jack Capuano that culminated in back to back 100-point seasons before a stumble in 2016-17 that led to change.

The dominating story of the Islanders off-season was whether they would re-sign John Tavares. They elected not to trade him at the deadline for what would have been a rich return of pieces and prospects. The team made wholesale change hiring Lou Lamoreillo as president who then promptly removed long time GM Garth Snow - naming himself to the position. He very quickly signed reigning Stanley Cup champ coach Barry Trotz to a healthy contract after Washington low-balled him with a replacement in place. The hope that a commitment to strong management would be a deciding factor for Tavares, who ultimately could not resist playing in his hometown, and Lamoriello’s former employer.

Lou is left to pick up the pieces. He was quick to point out that the pieces he must play with are good and is not looking at a tear down. Indeed, he has been active and quick to sign veteran free agents, Leo Komarov and Valterri Filppula, as well as 28-year-old Jan Kovar out of the KHL and 26-year-old Tom Kuhnhackl out of the Penguins organization. Perhaps pacifying words and actions, but the team did have some bright spots last season.

Jordan Eberle

BLAZING BARZAL - None brighter that Matthew Barzal, NHL rookie of the year, leading the team in scoring with 85 points, one more than departed Tavares. He and recent signing Jordan Eberle along with 21-year-old Anthony Beauvillier formed a dynamic trio that was strongest down the stretch. They were put together as a group after 40 games and Beauvillier had 17 goals in 40 games and 29 points –while Eberle had 30 points in 40 games and Barzal had 48 points, including an astonishing 39 assists, in 42 games.

Tavares lined up with Anders Lee and Josh Bailey primarily, both of whom had career years. 28-year-old Bailey shattered last season career high with 71 points, leading the team with 31 power play points. Teamed with Tavares over 70% of 5v5 time and 80% on the power play 28-year-old Lee also topped a prior year best of 34 goals and breaking the 40-goal barrier – giving him 51 goals at even strength over the last two seasons. Whether they can even come close to those performances after replacing Tavares with either Brock Nelson or Valteri Filppula remains to be seen.

Brock Nelson was a disappointment after three straight 20-goal seasons. He is signed to a one-year deal with something to prove. The addition of two veteran centers in Kovar and Filpulla will challenge push him, perhaps to the wing. Both Filppula and Kovar are also on one -year contracts and will be motivated.

EXPENSIVE BOTTOM OF ROSTER - Filling out the third line with Komarov, 31-years-old and signed for three seasons at $3 million AAV along with Ladd and likely Filppula. Once considered the NHL’s best fourth line, the combo of Casey Cizikas (27), Cal Clutterbuck (30) and Matt Martin (29) are re-united after Martin was acquired from the Maple Leafs. This leaves the Islanders invested in the bottom half of their line-up with over $20 million in cap space. It is only possible with Beauvillier and Barzal on the top line on entry level contracts. The bet is they are competitive most nights and the kids develop, but hardly seems like a rebuilding structure.

They are similarly locked in on defense with Nick Leddy, Johnny Boychuk and Thomas Hickey all signed for four years representing $14 million in cap space. Leddy had an off year but has been a solid contributor, led the team in ice time and should rebound. They have offensive threat Ryan Pulock signed for the next two years and he had an effective rookie season despite time in the press box early scoring 32 points in 68 games, highlighting his offensive promise. He received only 1:40 of power play time a game and is due for more. His partner Hickey also had to assert himself into the line-up after being a healthy scratch early in the season, before establishing himself as a regular and scoring 20 points in the final 42 games. His 25 even strength points were second only to Leddy. Trotz will want to build on that chemistry with Pulock.

In net they defaulted to Thomas Greiss at 32-years-old and added Robin Lehner to a one-year contract for $1.5 million as either a trade chip, or a surprise that can challenge for the starting role.

OUTLOOK - There are a lot of questions – Can Barzal keep forward momentum through a sophomore season in which he is the number one center? Who fills the role on a second line and how badly do Lee and Bailey miss JT? The Islanders remain in search of a game plan, the future or now, but expect a regression in the coming season.

REAL-TIME STATS AND FANTASY HOCKEY

Carl Lemelin — Mon, 04 Nov 2013 18:55:22 +0000

The eight-team keeper fantasy hockey league I help run and also participate in is considering incorporating the NHL’s Real-Time Stats starting next season. These new-age numbers were introduced by Gary Bettman and company back in the 2002-03 season and were intended to quantify important aspects of players’ performances that had yet to be accounted for. It had always been said that there was more to a hockey player than goals, assists, PIM and plus-minus, but what exactly was impactful enough to be tallied?

The league finally came up with these categories: hits, blocked shots, giveaways, takeaways and missed shots. At first the new stats were widely viewed as nothing more than a novelty that only the biggest ‘hockey nerds’ would take an interest in. Even the pro hockey community, living up to its well-earned ‘dinosaur mentality’, generally dismissed Real-Time Stats as gimmicky.

Of course, it didn’t help that the NHL seemed to have neglected to properly define and standardize each new statistical category. There were noticeable discrepancies in the way the stats were kept from one rink to another, especially when it came to hits. Infamously, the Florida Panthers all of a sudden became the most physical team in history, compiling a whopping 1021 hits, almost 300 more than their closest pursuers.

League officials have since refined the definitions for each Real-Time statistic, making it easier for scorekeepers to maintain a better league-wide standard. The result is a set of numbers that can help us better understand the variety of ways in which a player can help (or hurt) his team’s chances of winning.

Frequent hitters can be intimidating and affect the opponents’ on-ice demeanor or behavior. We’ve all seen and heard about how shot-blocking has become a huge factor in games. Takeaways are a reflection of a player’s determination and sense of anticipation without the puck and giveaway avoidance is a must in a league populated by coaches who constantly preach puck possession.

If your fantasy league doesn’t currently employ any of these stats, think about bringing it up in your next Board of Governors’ meeting. It’s a great way to learn more about the hidden skills of NHL players and since offense is at a premium in today’s NHL, it could create fantasy all-stars of a different kind for deeper leagues.

For those of you who crave a more realistic fantasy game, I’ve named a Real-Time all-star team (3 forwards and 2 defensemen). And for all traditional keeper fantasy owners, know that these stats are indicators of skills that can help players ingratiate themselves to their coaches. In the case of young offensive players, the extra ice-time it affords them can mean crucial offensive opportunity. I’ve listed a few such examples below.

REAL-TIME ALL-STAR TEAM

F- Pavel Datsyuk (DET): Leads the league once again with 24 TkA.. Has lead the category in 2 of the past 5 seasons and the only season he was ranked lower than third (11^th in 2010-11), played in only 56 games.. Yes he’s a fantasy star offensively, but he’s also the ultimate puck thief, while avoiding the many turnovers most top playmaking minute-munchers commit (only 9 GvA this season).

F- Tanner Glass (PIT): Good multi-category performer this season: 2^nd in hits (64), tied for 4^th among forwards in BkS (16) and avoids GvA (0) despite logging over 11 min./G.. Gentlemen, meet your new fantasy stud!

F- Matt Martin (NYI): Another new-wave star: leads NHL in hits (65), 3^rd among forwards in BkS (17) and also limits turnovers (3 GvA) despite playing close to 14 min./G.

D- Radko Gudas (TBL): Leads defensemen in hits (50), tied for 14^th among D-men in BkS (34) and exceptional at avoiding the dreaded blue line turnover (only 6 GvA in close to 20 min./G.).. One of the major reasons for Tampa’s much improved defensive play this season without a doubt.

D- Brooks Orpik (PIT): Tied for 9^th among D-men in hits (37), tied for 6^th among D-men in BkS (38) and has an even better turnover avoidance record (only 3 GvA in over 22min./G).. No wonder Marc-Andre Fleury is having a bounce-back year!

NEW COACH FAVORITES

Jaden Schwartz (LW) – STL: Already identified here as a possible breakout candidate, posts an impressive 8-2 TkA-GvA ratio.

Valeri Nichushkin (RW) – DAL: Offense slow to come, but seems to be doing the little things right (6-3 ratio).. Not shying away from the physical play either (15 hits).

Mats Zuccarello (RW) – NYR: Promotion to Derek Stepan line likely due to improved decision-making (6-3 ratio).

Brandon Saad (LW) – CHI: Already showing his offensive acumen, but look for him to soon replace Patrick Sharp as Chicago’s top LW with peripherals Joel Quenneville can’t ignore (15-3 ratio in over 17 min./G.).

Victor Hedman (D) – TBL: Another Lightning defenseman helping with the franchise turnaround (5^th in NHL D-men with 14 TkA, only 6 GvA).. Quickly gaining confidence handling the puck.