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Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, a Blueshirts winger making his mark, another young star for the Ducks, some good news in Nashville, a young defenceman stepping up in New Jersey and much more!
#1 In his first two NHL seasons, New York Rangers left winger Will Cuylle made major progress, jumping from 21 points as a rookie to 45 points last season. His ice time went up, he delivered more than 300 hits, and suddenly this blue-collar winger was starting to look like he could be a major contributor. He started this season slowly, with one goal and zero assists in nine games, but in the past nine games, he has nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 23 shots on goal and 27 hits. That’s the kind of production that will make Cuylle very valuable for fantasy managers. He moves around the lineup, and with Gabriel Perreault called up from the AHL, Cuylle is skating on the Blueshirts’ third line, but he is getting first unit power play time, so he should be able to remain productive.
#2 One of the best draft day reactions ever belongs to Anaheim Ducks right winger Beckett Sennecke, who was shocked when the Ducks selected him with the third overall pick in the 2024 Draft. The 6-foot-3 winger is finding his way in the league in his rookie season, but he’s not struggling to keep up. In November, he has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal in seven games, while receiving more than 15 minutes of ice time per game. He is skating on a line with Mason McTavish and Cutter Gauthier, which is an excellent opportunity to build something with two more skilled young forwards.
#3 While not a lot has gone right for the Nashville Predators this season, they are finding out that their 2023 first-round pick, Matthew Wood, could be a strong addition to the lineup. Wood was injured in the preseason, so he didn’t start the season on time, but in 11 games, he has produced 10 points (6 G, 4 A), recording a hat trick in Monday’s 6-3 loss to the Rangers. He played 17:09 in that game, the high-water mark in his career. Wood is skating on a line with Fedor Svechkov and Michael Bunting, but if he continues to generate offense, he will force his way into more ice time.
#4 The second overall pick in the 2022 Draft, New Jersey Devils defenceman Simon Nemec was not in a great place last season, managing four points (2 G, 2 A) in 27 games for the Devils while playing 34 games in the American Hockey League. He only got into the playoff lineup once Luke Hughes was injured, but Nemec showed well enough in the Devils’ first-round loss to Carolina that there was reason to be hopeful for him this season. The Devils have a deep core of defenders, which could have made it challenging for Nemec to earn regular playing time, but injuries to Johnathan Kovacevic, Brett Pesce, and most recently, Dougie Hamilton, have opened the door for Nemec, and he has burst right through it. He recorded a hat trick in Wednesday’s 4-3 overtime win against Chicago, giving Nemec eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 15 shots on goal and nearly 22 minutes of ice time per game in his past nine games.
#5 A five-time 20-goal scorer, Chicago Blackhawks winger Tyler Bertuzzi can run hot and cold sometimes, and when he’s not producing, it can feel glaring because on this roster, he is supposed to be a major player. Right now, he’s cooking, with nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 16 shots on goal in six games this month, and they’re not all pretty. Sometimes, it’s just a matter of Bertuzzi planting himself at the back post and letting pucks bounce off him into the net, but they all count and Bertuzzi making it work on Chicago’s top line alongside Connor Bedard.
#6 After a slow start, during which he managed just three points (1 G, 2 A) through the first 10 games, Rangers winger Alexis Lafreniere has found his stride again, and has nine points (3 G, 6 A) with 14 shots on goal in his past eight games. His shot volume is still not ideal, and his ice time can be shaky, but if he contributes offensively and adds to it with 100-plus hits, which he has in three of the past four seasons, then there is potential fantasy value in the 2020 No. 1 overall pick. With Vincent Trocheck recently returning from injury, Lafreniere is skating in a familiar place alongside Trocheck and Artemi Panarin.
#7 After a tough 2024-2025 season, when he finished with 48 points (20 G, 28 A) in 72 games, Carolina Hurricanes left winger Andrei Svechnikov failed to record a point in his first eight games of this season and he was demoted to the fourth line. It appears that he is starting to find his way out of it, and in the past eight games, Svechnikov has seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 29 shots on goal. He has returned to the top line, alongside Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, so Svechnikov is regaining some of the fantasy value that he squandered early in this season.
#8 When the Columbus Blue Jackets shuffled lines earlier this month, they put centre Adam Fantilli in between Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov. After starting the season with five points (2 G, 3 A) in 11 games, 21-year-old Fantilli has seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 19 shots on goal and 19:31 average time on ice in the past six games. That’s more like what is expected from the No. 3 pick in the 2023 Draft who had 54 points last season.
#9 For several seasons, there has been some level of expectation that Philadelphia Flyers defenceman Cam York would occupy the quarterback position on the team’s top power play unit. That has never really stuck before, but it might be now. York has 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in 13 games this season, with six of those points coming via the power play. That total of six power play points ties a career high for York, so he may be poised for improved offensive output. He is playing a career high 24:48 per game, so the opportunities should be there, but he does have just eight shots on goal in 13 games, so that is one factor to keep an eye on but, overall, York appears to be realizing some of his offensive potential.
#10 The 11th pick in the 2025 Draft by the Pittsburgh Penguins, Ben Kindel has surprisingly made it through 15 NHL games and isn’t looking out of place despite being just 18 years old. Kindel had 99 points (34 G, 65 A) in 65 games for Calgary in the Western Hockey League last season, so he knows what he’s doing with the puck on his stick, but he has also managed to provide solid two-way results as well, with the Penguins outshooting opponents with Kindel on the ice. He has seven points (5 G, 2 A) in 15 games, but injuries in Pittsburgh have presented greater opportunities and Kindel has four points (2 G, 2 A) with 12 shots on goal and 20:12 of ice time per game in the past four games. He has moved to left wing on Sidney Crosby’s line, which isn’t a bad spot to be for an 18-year-old who was supposed to be heading back to junior.
#11 Calgary Flames right winger Matt Coronato broke through with 23 goals and 47 points last season, earning a seven-year, $45.5 million contract extension, but then he struggled out of the gate this season, managing three points (2 G, 1 A) and 20 shots on goal in his first 10 games. He was even a healthy scratch for a game and while his production is still not where it needs to be – he has four points (2 G, 2 A) in his past eight games, but he does have 32 shots on goal, and that increasing shot rate is an encouraging sign.
#12 When Philadelphia Flyers right winger Matvei Michkov got off to a slow start, there were accusations that he was out of shape after suffering an injury in the offseason. How else to explain that he had just three points (1 G, 2 A) in his first nine games? Michkov is starting to snap out of it and has goals in three straight games, giving him six points (3 G, 3 A) with 12 shots on goal in his past seven games. The shot rate needs to get better, but at least there are some positive signs. It’s a little troubling that he is averaging less than 15 minutes of ice time per game, after playing 16:41 per game as a rookie last season, so keep tabs on how he is deployed by head coach Rick Tocchet.
#13 Although left winger Eetu Luostarinen failed to record a point in his first seven games this season, he has bounced back from that slow start to deliver 10 points (3 G, 7 A) with 24 shots on goal and 27 hits in his past 10 games. He is skating with Anton Lundell and Brad Marchand, a line that was a big part of Florida’s playoff success last season, but they are effectively the Panthers’ top line right now and Luostarinen’s improved offensive output is part of the reason for that.
#14 Veteran Ottawa Senators winger Michael Amadio has recorded 27 points in three straight seasons, and that is a career high for him, so expectations for his offensive contributions need to be modest, but with Brady Tkachuk injured, there has been a chance for Amadio to move up the Senators’ depth chart. He has six points (4 G, 2 A) and nine shots on goal during a six-game point streak and while he may not offer great long-term value, Amadio is producing enough now to have appeal in deeper leagues.
#15 One of the top free agent signings in the offseason, Carolina Hurricanes winger Nikolaj Ehlers went five games without a point and didn’t score his first goal until his 12th game with the Hurricanes. One of the expectations with Ehlers moving to Carolina is that he would finally get more ice time after it appeared he was underused in Winnipeg, but Ehlers’ production has started to take off this season only after his ice time went down. He has six points (3 G, 3 A) during a five-game point streak, a stretch during which he has played just over 14 minutes per game. He is now skating on a line with Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake, younger players who may be a better match for Ehlers’ speed.
#16 Nashville Predators defenceman Nick Blankenburg is 27 years old and hit career highs with 16 points and 60 games played for Nashville last season. With Roman Josi out of action early in this season, Blankenburg is making the most of his opportunity. He has six points (1 G, 5 A) and 16 shots on goal in eight games, averaging 20:17 of ice time per game. Blankenburg is probably not a long-term answer on defence, but as a short-term fill-in, he’s getting enough ice time, which includes second unit PP time, to make himself useful.
#17 A top goaltending prospect since he was the 11th pick in the 2020 Draft, Yaroslav Askarov has had some ups and down along his development path but is in position to share the crease with Alex Nedeljkovic for the San Jose Sharks this season. In his first half dozen starts this season, Askarov had a brutal .844 save percentage and looked lost. Then the calendar flipped to November and in five starts he has a .965 save percentage with 12.87 Goals Saved Above Expected. With the Sharks playing an exciting offensive game, Askarov’s emergence as a quality goaltender could go a long way to help the team.
#18 Seattle Kraken winger Eeli Tolvanen had just one assist through nine games but is starting to snap out of it with seven points (2 G, 5 A) in his past eight games. He only has 11 shots on goal in those eight games, which is a red flag, but he’s skating with youngers Shane Wright and Berkly Catton at even strength while getting first unit power play time.
#19 One of the premier scoring centres in the league, Tampa Bay Lightning pivot Brayden Point has scored 139 goals in the past three seasons, but he’s having trouble finding the net this season. In his past 12 games, Point has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 27 shots on goal. He is scoring on just 8.8 percent of his shots this season, which is low, but it’s especially low for Point, who has scored on 21.4 percent of his shots in the past three seasons. Is it possible that regression is hitting him after a three-year run?
#20 The Utah Mammoth have been an exciting team early in the season and two of the reasons for their success now and optimism for the future are right winger Dylan Guenther and centre Logan Cooley. In November, Guenther has one goal and zero assists with 18 shots on goal in six games. The shot rate is encouraging, given Guenther’s reputation as one of the game’s elite shooters, but he’s hit a dry spell. Cooley had 12 points (8 G, 4 A) and 26 shots on goal in 11 games in October but has just two assists and eight shots on goal in six games this month.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick
]]>#1 Massive Washington Capitals winger Aliaksei Protas has exploded offensively this season, going from 29 points in 2023-2024 to 62 points (29 G, 33 A) in 69 games this season. He has 11 points (6 G, 5 A) in his past seven games and has recorded 57 of his 62 points at even strength. That ranks seventh in the entire league, putting him between sixth-place Nikita Kucherov and eighth-place Kyle Connor. Sidney Crosby ranks ninth. At even strength, Protas is skating on the top line with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Alex Ovechkin, and while regression may be due for a player scoring on 22.5 percent of his shots and whose team scores on 14.7 percent of its shots at five-on-five when he is on the ice, that good fortune has been working in Protas’ favor all season.
#2 The Edmonton Oilers will be treading carefully following a possible lower-body injury to Connor McDavid, suffered Thursday night against Winnipeg. McDavid’s absence would obviously be a big deal for the Oilers, but especially in the short term as Leon Draisaitl did not play Thursday and is considered day-to-day as well. The best case for the Oilers is that, in the event that McDavid needs to miss some time, Draisaitl will soon be ready to return to action. If not, then the Oilers will likely need to run Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Adam Henrique in their top two centre slots while their superstars are on the mend.
#3 Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin has had issues staying in the lineup, whether due to injury or suspension, in recent years, but he has also established that he can be a force to be reckoned with when he plays. In his past seven games, Nichushkin has nine points (6 G, 3 A) with 18 shots on goal. He is getting first unit power play time and skates alongside Brock Nelson and Jonathan Drouin at even strength.
#4 The past couple of seasons had been relatively difficult for Dylan Cozens, who had busted out with 68 points (31 G, 37 A) during the 2022-2023 season, but he dropped to 47 points (18 G, 29 A) in 68 games last season and had 31 points (11 G, 20 A) in 61 games with the Sabres this season before he was traded to the Ottawa Senators. Since joining the Sens, Cozens has six points (3 G, 3 A) with 20 shots on goal in seven games. His production is improving despite playing less – his ice time dropping from 17:13 to 15:23 per game – thanks in part to better percentages, scoring on 15.0 percent of his shots and 14.0 percent on-ice shooting percentage.
#5 Top scorers since the trade deadline among those players who changed teams: Brandon Saad (3 G, 3 A in 7 GP), Cody Glass (2 G, 3 A in 6 GP), Dylan Cozens (2 G, 3 A in 6 GP), Mark Jankowski (4 G, 0 A, in 5 GP), Mikael Granlund (3 G, 1 A in 6 GP), Mikko Rantanen (2 G, 2 A in 6 GP), Brock Nelson (2 G, 2 A in 7 GP), Martin Necas (2 G, 2 A in 7 GP), Connor Timmins (1 G, 3 A in 5 GP), Yanni Gourde (0 G, 4 A in 6 GP), Cody Ceci (0 G, 4 A in 6 GP), J.T. Miller (0 G, 4 A in 8 GP); Marcus Pettersson (0 G, 4 A in 8 GP).
#6 San Jose Sharks rookie Macklin Celebrini has enjoyed a fantastic first season, even if the Sharks’ season has still been a struggle. In his past 20 games, Celebrini has 18 points (8 G, 10 A) which is great, but it’s very encouraging that he has 76 shots on goal in that time. That shot rate practically ensures continued production. The only players averaging better than 3.80 shots on goal per game across the full season are David Pastrnak, Nathan MacKinnon, and Brady Tkachuk. One other statistical edge for Celebrini: he has blocked 19 shots on those 20 games. There are only a handful of centres (Elias Pettersson, Vincent Trocheck, Adam Henrique, Auston Matthews, and Ryan Poehling) who have blocked a shot per game across the full season, so Celebrini offers rare contributions at both ends of the rink.
#7 It is likely too soon for a full-throated recommendation of Winnipeg Jets defenceman Dylan Samberg, because he doesn’t have a power play role, but he does have 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 46 blocked shots in his past 20 games while he is averaging more than 22 minutes of ice time per game. For a Jets team that leads the league with a goal differential of +78, merely playing a significant role on the blueline can offer potential value, at least for managers in deeper fantasy leagues.
#8 St. Louis Blues veteran defenceman Justin Faulk has seen his offensive production tick up recently, recording seven points (1 G, 6 A) in his past seven games. Faulk is quarterbacking the Blues’ second power play unit and 12 of his 29 points this season have come via the man advantage. That is his most power play points in a season since 2017-2018 when he was playing for the Carolina Hurricanes.
#9 The third pick in the 2021 Draft, Anaheim Ducks centre Mason McTavish has rounded into form in the second half of the season. He has put up 24 points (12 G, 12 A) in his past 23 games and is now skating between Trevor Zegras and Brett Leason. The Ducks have shuffled their lines over time, so this is a newer combination, but it has not mattered much to McTavish, as he has been in a scoring groove for a couple of months. Another promising development for the Ducks is that Leo Carlsson, the second pick in the 2023 Draft, has picked up his production, too. In 15 games since the 4 Nations Face Off, Carlsson has 14 points (7 G, 7 A). In addition to joining McTavish on the Ducks’ top power play, Carlsson is skating on a line at even strength with rookie Cutter Gauthier and veteran Alex Killorn.
#10 After all the hype around Mikko Rantanen’s arrival, and then departure, from Carolina, left winger Taylor Hall has been overshadowed, but he has started to find his footing. After a slow start when he joined the Hurricanes, Hall has started to rally, with six points (2 G, 4 A) in his past six games. He is getting a shot on the ‘Canes top power play unit but has just three power play points all season. Nevertheless, that is quality ice time and Hall is making the most of his time skating on a line with Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Jack Roslovic.
#11 There are three Vancouver Canucks with 20 or more goals this season: Jake DeBrusk, Brock Boeser, and…Pius Suter. Suter, the Swiss centre, has tallied eight points (6 G, 2 A) in his past 11 games, vaulting him to a new career high with 20 goals and, with 34 points, he is two points off of his previous career high. He is centering the Canucks’ second line, between DeBrusk and Kiefer Sherwood. Staying in Vancouver, winger Nils Hoglander has climbed the depth chart to skate on Elias Petterson’s wing and Hoglander has delivered seven points (1 G, 6 A) in his past seven games.
#12 Some hidden value for fantasy managers can be found with defensive defencemen who add some offense, in addition to their other statistical contributions. Seattle Kraken blueliner Adam Larsson, for example, has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in his past 14 games and since Larsson also has consistently delivered hits (88) and blocked shots (126), he has value for fantasy managers.
#13 Utah Hockey Club netminder Karel Vejmelka has stepped up with his best season in his fourth NHL campaign. In his past 13 games, he has a record of 8-3-2 and has .909 save percentage. With Connor Ingram taking a leave from the team, the Utah Hockey Club’s push for the playoffs is going to depend heavily on Vejmelka.
#14 The Ottawa Senators have been the second highest scoring team in March, with 3.76 goals per 60 minutes (ranking only behind the Colorado Avalanche at 3.96 GF/60) and the Sens are now a rising tide that lifts all boats. While Jake Sanderson, Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Drake Batherson are leading the way offensively, there are others who are more widely available. In his past 10 games, Michael Amadio has eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 14 shots on goal and veteran winger David Perron has contributed six points (3 G, 3 A) with seven shots on goal in his past eight games. Neither one has a shot rate that suggests they can maintain this production, but it is worth keeping them on your fantasy radar.
#15 It has been a breakthrough season for Columbus Blue Jackets enforcer Mathieu Olivier, which earned him a contract extension. The 28-year-old winger has five points (4 G, 1 A) and 16 shots on goal in his past six games, giving him 26 points (16 G, 10 A) for the season. With 120 penalty minutes and 258 hits, Olivier is a banger league star and he’s playing top nine minutes, which makes it more likely that he will remain productive enough to hold that value.
#16 As the Buffalo Sabres have shuffled their lines, centre Ryan McLeod has moved into the second line centre role and is thriving with more offensive responsibility. In his past 16 games, McLeod has put up 12 points (5 G, 7 A) with 22 shots on goal while playing nearly 19 minutes per game. He has Jordan Greenway and Jason Zucker on his wings and McLeod has career highs in goals (16) and points (38).
#17 With Jack Hughes out for the rest of the season, the New Jersey Devils were looking for help down the middle of the ice and picked up Cody Glass from the Pittsburgh Penguins. He has had an immediate impact for the Devils, scoring five points (2 G, 3 A) in six games, logging nearly 15 minutes per game. He is centering a line with Erik Haula and Daniel Sprong on his wings. It’s an interesting line, with three players who have sufficient skill to score, but who have also bounced around the league quite a bit, so it will be interesting to see if Glass can maintain this level of production.
#18 Vegas Golden Knights winger Pavel Dorofeyev continues to make his mark as a finisher. In his past six games, Dorofeyev has put up eight points (6 G, 2 A) with 21 shots on goal. That shot rate is very encouraging and Dorofeyev is getting first unit power play time in addition to skating on a line with veterans Brandon Saad and Tomas Hertl. Dorofeyev ranks 12th (minimum 500 minutes) with 9.77 shots on goal per 60 minutes of five-on-five play.
#19 Colorado Avalanche winger Ross Colton had a 14-game scoring drought but has since snapped out of it in a big way, with 11 points (2 G, 9 A) and 21 shots on goal in his past 11 games. That flurry of assists has weakened Colton’s Cy Young case, as he now has 15 goals and 12 assists for the season but has 13 goals and three assists before suddenly turning playmaker.
#20 The leaders in five-on-five expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 500 minutes): Zach Hyman (1.31), Auston Matthews (1.22), Barrett Hayton (1.17), Jeff Skinner (1.15), Brady Tkachuk (1.12), Anders Lee (1.11), Warren Foegele (1.06), Filip Chytil (1.05), Connor McMichael (1.05), Bryan Rust (1.05), and Sean Monahan (1.05). Some of these names are to be expected, because Matthews generates a lot of shots while Hyman, Tkachuk, and Lee tend to have a lot of in-close opportunities. It’s intriguing to see players like Hayton, Skinner, Foegele, and Chytil among the leaders because it does suggest that they could deliver more production at even strength. At the very least, maybe the Oilers could keep Skinner in the lineup to see if those scoring chances can eventually pay off.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick
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Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
This week, Quinton Byfield is making his presence felt, a surprising source of offense for the Maple Leafs, Columbus’ All-Star is scoring, and much, much more!
#1 Drafted second overall by the Los Angeles Kings in 2020, Quinton Byfield took some time to get up to speed in the National Hockey League. Coming into this season, he had 8 goals and 33 points in 99 games, so he was not exactly busting down the door to stardom. He did start to show potential last season, though, and the Kings gave him a lot of ice time on the top line to start this season, skating on a line with Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar. More recently, Byfield has moved down the depth chart to join Pierre-Luc Dubois and Byfield continues to produce. In his past 10 games, Byfield has tallied 12 points (6 G, 6 A) with 25 shots on goal.
#2 Throwing Byfield with Pierre-Luc Dubois offers a chance for Dubois to shake out of his season-long slump. Since the Kings replaced Todd McLellan with Jim Hiller as head coach, Dubois has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in seven games. That improved production comes on the heels of Dubois managing just one point (1 G, 0 A) in the previous eight games.
#3 A 27-year-old winger who had played all of 10 games in the NHL prior to this season, Bobby McMann has become an unlikely contributor for the Toronto Maple Leafs. In his first 26 games for the Maple Leafs this season, McMann had just seven points (2 G, 5 A) but it was understandable, he played less than 10 minutes in 18 of those 26 games. McMann broke through on February 13, recording a hat trick in a 4-1 win against St. Louis and that earned him a bump up the depth chart. He has most recently found himself on a line with John Tavares and Nick Robertson and has 10 points (7 G, 3 A) and 17 shots on goal in the past six games. Suddenly, McMann is changing the perception of what he might be able to offer as an NHL player, from fringe NHLer to possible top-six winger.
#4 Getting Connor Bedard back in the lineup has helped Chicago Blackhawks forward Philipp Kurashev who has eight points (1 G, 7 A) in seven games since the All-Star break, which includes four points (1 G, 3 A) in four games since Bedard returned from his broken jaw. Prior to the break, Kurashev had just two points (1 G, 1 A) during a 14-game stretch, and yet he is still second on the Blackhawks in scoring with 32 points (9 G, 23 A) in 50 games.
#5 Columbus’ All-Star representative this season, centre Boone Jenner has emerged from the break on a five-game point streak, during which he has accrued eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 22 shots on goal. Jenner juices up his fantasy appeal with physical play, too, and has 17 hits in those five games. He is skating between Johnny Gaudreau and Jack Roslovic, both of whom are also picking up the pace offensively. Gaudreau is in full set-up mode lately, with 15 points (1 G, 14 A) and 33 shots on goal in his past 13 games. Roslovic has upped his production more recently, with five points (1 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal during a four-game point streak which started when he joined Jenner and Gaudreau on Columbus’ top line.
#6 Winnipeg Jets right winger Gabriel Vilardi got off to a strong start with his new club, contributing 20 points (11 G, 9 A) in 25 games, but he did miss some time due to injury and went through a six-game scoreless drought around the All-Star break. He’s making up for it, though, with eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 12 shots on goal during a three-game point streak. Vilardi is skating on the Jets’ top line with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, which is a pretty great opportunity for a young player looking to become a more consistent scoring threat.
#7 Although he was held off the scoresheet in Thursday’s 1-0 win against Florida, it was only the third time in the past 16 games that Carolina Hurricanes right winger Seth Jarvis did not record a point. He has 18 points (4 G, 14 A) and 34 shots on goal in that span, giving him a career-high 46 points in 56 games. Jarvis isn’t the only Hurricanes winger who has picked up his scoring pace. Martin Necas has 15 points (8 G, 7 A) and 50 shots on goal in his past 14 games.
#8 The third pick in the 2021 Draft, Anaheim Ducks centre Mason McTavish has had some ups and downs in his second NHL season, but his talent is undeniable, and he does have seven points in his past four games. While fantasy managers, especially those in banger leagues, might love that McTavish has 30 penalty minutes in his past 10 games, those frequent trips to the penalty box could start to cost him ice time.
#9 Florida Panthers centre Anton Lundell tallied 44 points as a rookie in 2021-2022 and has not been able to match that pace since, in part because his shooting percentage has fallen off, from 14.4 percent two seasons ago to 7.2 percent this season. Nevertheless, Lundell has shown some signs of life offensively, producing six points (4 G, 2 A) and nine shots on goal in his past five games. The Panthers have been excellent this season, and they have not received a huge contribution from Lundell, so if he can pick up the pace down the stretch, that would go a long way for a team that is a Stanley Cup contender.
#10 Minnesota Wild rookie centre Marco Rossi has moved into a tie with teammate Brock Faber as the second leading rookie scorer in the league behind Chicago’s Connor Bedard, who has 39 points (17 G, 22 A) in 43 games. Rossi has five points (4 G, 1 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past five games, which gets him to 33 points (17 G, 16 A) in 56 games. Rossi’s ice time is down, so tread carefully about adding him now. His improved scoring pace does offer hope that Rossi will have a bigger role both in the near and more distant future.
#11 New York Rangers right winger Kaapo Kakko missed nearly two months of action but is starting to get back into the groove. In his past six games, the 23-year-old forward has put up five points (2 G, 3 A) along with 12 shots on goal. It may be too soon to offer a full-throated recommendation for Kakko, but it’s worth keeping an eye on him. Progress has been gradual, and he is already in his fifth NHL season, but he has flashed potential.
#12 Consistent offensive production does not come easily for Buffalo Sabres winger Jordan Greenway, who scored a career high 32 points (9 G, 23 A) in 56 games for the Minnesota Wild during the 2020-2021 season. However, every now and then, he heats up and suddenly becomes an intriguing fantasy option, even if it is for short-term purposes. Over the past month, Greenway has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal in 10 games. Injuries have opened the door for Greenway to get more ice time in Buffalo and he has landed on the second line, alongside Casey Mittelstadt and Dylan Cozens, two skilled players who can help extend Greenway’s offensive good fortune.
#13 At this stage of his career, 38-year-old Corey Perry tends to not offer a lot of fantasy value during the regular season. He plays on the lower half of the depth chart and while he contributes some, it is usually only enough for consideration in the deepest of leagues. While all of that may be true, Perry does have four points (3 G, 1 A) with eight shots on goal and 16 penalty minutes in the past four games and that might warrant a little bit more attention. He is getting second unit power play time and is skating with Dylan Holloway and Mattias Janmark at evens.
#14 Goaltending has been a question mark for many teams this season and those questions have lingered in Carolina for much of the season. The answer may be found within the Hurricanes’ own dressing room, as Pyotr Kochetkov has hit a hot streak and that might be enough to solidify the play in Carolina’s crease, at least for the time being. After a sparkling 44-save shutout Thursday against Florida, Kochetkov has a .969 save percentage across his past four starts. Of course, in his previous four appearances, Kochetkov’s save percentage was a ghastly .851, so he has been offering quite the thrill ride with plenty of ups and downs.
#15 One of the primary challenges when seeking fantasy hockey answers in goal is finding goaltenders that play enough. St. Louis Blues backup goaltender Joel Hofer, for example, has been excellent lately with a .928 save percentage across his past nine starts, but that goes back to before Christmas, so Hofer still offers value in deeper leagues. If something were to happen that would give him a greater share of the starts in St. Louis, the 23-year-old could see his value soar.
#16 After lighting up the Vancouver Canucks for four points (1 G, 3 A) in Thursday’s victory, Seattle Kraken centre Jared McCann has a six-game point streak and has put up 22 points (11 G, 11 A) with 44 shots on goal in his past 15 games. McCann is coming off a career-best season in which he scored 40 goals and 70 points, but his recent production is getting him back into that stratosphere again.
#17 In his past seven games, Colorado Avalanche defenceman Cale Makar has zero points. This stretch is the first time – in his career! – that he has gone more than three consecutive games without recording a point. It’s not like this is no reason to trade Makar. He has 20 shots on goal in those seven games and has 60 points (13 G, 47 A) in 53 games this season, but an unprecedented slump from the most prolific scoring defenceman in the league at least bears watching.
#18 Since the All-Star break, the leaders in all situations expected goals: Nico Hischier (5.57), Nathan MacKinnon (5.54), Auston Matthews (5.21), Chris Kreider (4.91), J.T. Miller (4.88), Kirill Kaprizov (4.66), Zach Hyman (4.55), Jack Hughes (4.45), Brady Tkachuk (4.37), Joel Eriksson Ek (4.32), Boone Jenner (4.25), Kyle Palmieri (4.25), Evander Kane (4.23), Nazem Kadri (4.22), and Cole Caufield (4.18). While these are a lot of expected names, it’s interesting to see Hischier at the top of the list, and players like Jenner, Palmieri, and Kane are likely higher than their overall production might suggest.
#19 There are 36 players that have recorded at least seven power-play points since January 1. That list includes Juraj Slafkovsky (9), Jonathan Huberdeau (7), Frank Vatrano (7), Morgan Frost (7), and Jake Neighbours (7). Again, a lot of the names at the top of the list are to be expected – Matthew Tkachuk leads with 14 five-on-four points in 2024 – but some less established players are starting to make a difference with the man advantage, too.
#20 With Mark Stone injured, joining Jack Eichel on the shelf, the Vegas Golden Knights are getting rather thin up front, so maybe consider Michael Amadio as a short-term fix. The 27-year-old forward has scored a goal in four of the past five games, putting a dozen shots on goal while averaging more than 16 minutes of ice time per game. Amadio finished with a career-high 27 points (16 G, 11 A) in 67 games last season and has 21 points (11 G, 10 A) in 50 games this season, so he is not necessarily a long-term answer but, right now, he has an opportunity to play a more significant role.
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The opening for last week’s article was about Minnesota, so that’s twice now that I featured a team right before the coach was fired (the other instance of that was Edmonton). With apologies to D.J. Smith, I do want to discuss the Senators.
Ottawa is in a tricky position. The Senators went through the rebuilding process, having three top-five picks in three years from 2018-20 (Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson) followed by possessing the No. 10 selection in the 2021 NHL Draft (used on Tyler Boucher). Since then, they haven’t had a first-round pick, surrendering the 2022 selection to acquire Alex DeBrincat and their top pick in 2023 to get Jakob Chychrun. While they didn’t spend those picks on older players (and in the case of DeBrincat, they’re getting a first rounder back in the subsequent deal that shipped him to Detroit), it signaled that Ottawa is trying to move past the rebuilding phase.
It hasn’t worked out though. Ottawa was a middlingly 39-35-8 in 2022-23 and rather than take a step forward, the Senators are 9-10-0 this year. With Stutzle and Tkachuk having developed into star forwards while being backed by talented veterans Claude Giroux and Vladimir Tarasenko, Ottawa’s succeeded in troubling opposing goaltenders by scoring 3.32 goals per game, which puts the Senators in a four-way tie for ninth offensively.
Ottawa is also shaping up to be an amazing defensive team. In terms of expected goals against, the Senators rank second with 55.98. The Senators are an example of the reality of the NHL though: Even with a good offense and a strong defense, if your last line of defense is bad, then you’re still in trouble. Anton Forsberg has a 3.03 GAA and an .882 save percentage in eight contests this year. Joonas Korpisalo, who the Senators signed to a five-year, $20 million contract in the hopes that he’d stabilize their goaltending situation, has a 3.41 GAA and an .897 save percentage in 13 contests.
Things might be even worse than they look. Ottawa had 14 of its first 19 contests at home. That skewed schedule in the Senators’ favor will come back to haunt them from Dec. 14-Jan. 11 -- a stretch where they’ll play 11 of 14 contests on the road.
The Blackhawks have four games ahead of them this week. They’ll face the Predators on Tuesday, the Ducks on Thursday, the Blues on Saturday and the Capitals on Sunday. The Capitals are the toughest of those teams with a 12-7-2 while the rest of the squads have been middling at best this year.
Chicago acquired Anthony Beauvillier from Vancouver last Tuesday, but he’s missed two of Chicago’s last three games due to visa issues. The exception was Saturday’s contest because it was in Winnipeg. In that game, Beauvillier played on the top line with Connor Bedard and Philipp Kurashev. If that’s his role going forward, which seems likely, then the trade could provide him with a substantial boost to his fantasy value. As a member of the Canucks, he was averaging just 13:39 of ice time, which is part of the reason why he was limited to two goals and eight points. As a member of Chicago’s first line, Beauvillier could conceivably get 30-40 points over the final 60 contests.
The Blackhawks could certainly use the help that Beauvillier should provided. Over the last three games, Chicago has managed just three goals. Connor Bedard factored on all of them (one goal, two assists), bringing him up to 11 goals and 20 points in 23 contests this campaign. He’s the man Chicago was hoping for, but arguably obtaining a superstar is the easy part. For that, you just need to tank and then win the lottery, which isn’t exactly a high-skill maneuver. Building around that superstar post-tank is the hard part, and it will likely be years before we’ll know if the Blackhawks can succeed in that phase.
It would help if Lukas Reichel, who is a high-end prospect in his own right, got going. The 22-year-old was a healthy scratch Sunday after scoring two goals and six points over his first 22 contests this year. While being scratched obviously isn’t great, the silver lining is that it gives him a chance to reset and view the action from a different perspective. Maybe it will help in the long run.
The Avalanche have just three games this week, but they’re all home contests. They’ll start with the struggling Ducks on Tuesday (though it is worth noting Anaheim did manage to squeak away with a 4-3 shootout win over Colorado last Saturday) before facing Winnipeg on Thursday and Philadelphia on Saturday.
The Avalanche lost Cale Makar to a lower-body injury Saturday, and he missed Sunday’s game as a result. It remains to be seen how long he’ll be unavailable, but he’s the backbone of Colorado’s offense and defense, so losing him for any meaningful stretch of time would be a huge blow.
Sam Malinski drew into the lineup Sunday, logging 18:09 of ice time. He’s likely to remain in the lineup for as long as Makar is out. Malinski won’t come close to replacing the superstar’s offensive contributions, but Malinski does have three goals and nine points in 17 contests with AHL Colorado in 2023-24, so he might chip in a little. As far as the power play goes, Bowen Byram is likely to see time on the second unit while Devon Toews moves up to the top grouping, so both of their fantasy value will likely see a modest uptick in Makar’s absence.
Interestingly, rather than any of them, it was Josh Manson who factored in Sunday, scoring the Avalanche’s lone goal in a 4-1 loss to LA. Manson also registered an assist Saturday, so he’s at the start of what could be a hot streak, but it’s best to keep expectations low. After all, Manson has just three points in 21 contests this campaign, even after factoring in his recent production. He also has 32 PIM, 40 hits and 33 blocks, so he offers some additional utility if you did want to grab him in the hopes that his offensive run will last a little longer.
Detroit is set to play in Buffalo on Tuesday before heading home to face the Sharks on Thursday and the Senators on Saturday. All three of those opponents are in the bottom third of the league’s standings, so the Red Wings are in a strong position to go on a winning streak.
Patrick Kane signed a one-year, $2.75 million contract with the Red Wings on Nov. 28, but he’s likely to miss at least the first two contests this week as he looks to get back up to speed after undergoing hip surgery in June. When he does return, Kane will likely play alongside his old Blackhawks linemate, Alex DeBrincat, along with Dylan Larkin on Detroit’s top line. That should be a very effective unit, and while there’s an element of risk to Kane coming off surgery, he has the potential to record 40-50 points over the remainder of the campaign.
Getting Kane into the lineup might push Joe Veleno, who has averaged 15:00 of ice time this year, out of a top-six role. It also could cost David Perron his spot on the first power-play unit and push Robby Fabbri out of a power-play role entirely.
In terms of which Red Wings might benefit from having Kane on the roster, outside of Larkin and DeBrincat, we also might see Michael Rasmussen enjoy an indirect boost. Kane’s addition frees up Lucas Raymond to bolster the second line, which should help Rasmussen.
Detroit’s power play already enjoys a 23.5 conversion rate, which is eighth in the league, but if Kane is able to make the first unit even more successful, then that will also help defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere, whose production is closely tied to special teams.
The Kings are on the road this week, but their first two contests are against struggling adversaries in Columbus on Tuesday and Montreal on Thursday. The Kings will then travel to New York to face the Islanders on Saturday and the Rangers on Sunday.
Los Angeles is also one of the hottest teams in the league, having won six of its last seven contests. Trevor Moore has played a big role in the Kings’ recent success, scoring five goals and eight points in that seven-game span to climb to 12 markers and 20 points in 21 outings this year. Meanwhile, Adrian Kempe has collected four assists over his last four contests, giving him eight goals and 22 points in 21 contests in 2023-24.
In net, Cam Talbot continues to get most of the workload and deservedly so. He has a 1.96 GAA and a .930 save percentage through 16 games. Backup Pheonix Copley has a far uglier 3.04 GAA and .868 save percentage in six outings, but he’s won his last two starts while saving 48 of 49 shots (.980 save percentage) over that span. Copley will likely have an opportunity to extend that run against either the Islanders or the Rangers this weekend.
The Canadiens will host the Kraken on Monday and the Kings on Thursday. Then the Canadiens will travel to Buffalo on Saturday before returning to Montreal to host the Predators on Sunday. It’s a busy week, and the Kings are a tough opponent, but Nashville, Buffalo and Seattle all have sub-.500 records.
Goaltender Jake Allen has a 3.74 GAA and an .898 save percentage in 10 contests this season, and he’s done particularly bad lately, posting a 4.63 GAA and an .871 save percentage over his last six outings. Cayden Primeau hasn’t done any better with a 4.24 GAA and an .875 save percentage over his last three contests, so there’s an opening here for Sam Montembeault to run away with the starting gig.
Montembeault has a 5-3-1 record, 2.73 GAA and .910 save percentage in 10 contests this campaign and has won his last two starts while saving 56 of 61 shots (.918 save percentage) over that span. The Canadiens also made a three-year, $9.45 million commitment to the 27-year-old goaltender Friday, which further increases the chances of him claiming that top spot.
In terms of hot players offensively, blueliner Gustav Lindstrom has scored two goals over his last three contests. He’s not someone you should expect a lot of productivity from -- over 139 career games, he has just 29 points -- but he’s clicking at the moment. Joel Armia also has two goals over his last three outings and importantly has averaged 15:35 of ice time over that stretch, up from 12:38 over his previous six games with Montreal.
Seattle lost four straight contests to drop to 8-11-6 this campaign. The pressure is on the Kraken to turn things around this week, especially with a slate of home games on the horizon. First, they’ll play in Montreal on Monday, but then the Kraken will host the Devils on Thursday, the Lightning on Saturday and the Wild on Sunday.
The Kraken have scored just seven goals over their last four games, but Tye Kartye has been an outlier over that stretch with two goals and three points. The 22-year-old rookie still has just four goals and eight points through 24 outings this campaign, but he might be getting more comfortable as the year progresses. He certainly showed offensive upside in the 2022-23 campaign, supplying 28 goals and 57 points in 72 AHL outings. You can try taking a chance on him while he’s hot in the hope that his recent success might lead to something more. If nothing else, he’s a decent source of PIM and hits, having 25 and 43, respectively, this year.
Jared McCann has also provided two goals and three points over that four-game stretch, bringing him up to 11 markers and 16 points in 25 outings this year. However, that’s still well behind his pace from 2022-23 when he finished with 40 goals and 70 points. Rather than replicate his production from last year, McCann is more likely to finish with around 50-55 points, falling more in line with his 2021-22 showing.
Tampa Bay was expecting the return of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to bolster the team, but instead, the Lightning have lost four straight games. To be fair, Tampa Bay has provided just five goals during its losing streak, so Vasilevskiy hasn’t gotten sufficient support, but the netminder also has a 3.87 GAA and an .859 save percentage through four starts. Perhaps it’s hard for him to find his rhythm after missing the start of the campaign with a back injury.
The Lightning will attempt to right the ship this week with home games against the Stars on Monday and the Penguins on Wednesday, followed by a road trip taking them to Nashville on Thursday and Seattle on Saturday.
I do expect Vasilevskiy to settle in as the campaign goes on, so this might be a good time to explore the possibility of acquiring him at a discounted price. After missing so much time and struggling so badly out of the gate, some fantasy managers might be frustrated enough to move him.
In terms of hot players, Nikita Kucherov is basically all the Lightning have at the moment. He’s managed to assist on all five of the Lightning’s markers over the last four games, propelling him to 15 goals and 40 points through 24 contests this year.
Victor Hedman has also done well with a goal and three points over his last four outings. If you’re lucky enough to have the blueliner on your fantasy team, you’ve been treated to consistent production – he hasn’t had a scoring drought longer than two outings this year.
Beyond those two, though, no Tampa Bay player has recorded more than a point over the last four games. If there’s a silver lining among that group, it’s Tanner Jeannot, who has at least been productive in other ways. In addition to scoring a power-play goal over that four-contest stretch, he’s also recorded 15 PIM and 18 hits.
The Golden Knights hit a rough patch from Nov. 5-28 in which they posted a 3-5-3 record, but that seems to be behind them after earning back-to-back 4-1 victories against Vancouver and Washington, respectively. They’ll attempt to build on that with their home-and-away series against St. Louis on Monday and Wednesday. Following those contests, the Golden Knights will play in Dallas on Saturday and host the Sharks on Sunday.
We just covered Seattle and Tampa Bay, which had somewhat slim pickings when it came to hot players, but that’s not the case with Vegas. Four Golden Knights forwards have recorded at least three points over the last three contests: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Michael Amadio and Ivan Barbashev.
Of them, Amadio and Barbashev might be obtainable in fantasy leagues if you’re looking for someone to provide you with a short-term boost. Barbashev would be a particularly interesting option since he spent his first 410 career NHL games with St. Louis before being dealt to Vegas in February, so he might play with a little extra during the upcoming two contests.
It’s also worth noting that Adin Hill sustained a lower-body injury Thursday and missed Saturday’s contest as a result. It’s not clear how long he’ll be out for, but if he doesn’t return by the weekend, then Jiri Patera might get a start, perhaps versus San Jose. Patera isn’t having a great campaign with a 3.17 GAA and a .900 save percentage in 14 appearances with AHL Henderson, but he did post a 2.50 GAA and a .929 save percentage in two outings with Vegas last season, and the Sharks are a favorable opponent, so if it looks like he’ll get the start for that game then you should consider Patera as a situational pickup.
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The opening story of these articles might be a bit of a curse. I talked about how bad the Sharks were, and they subsequently got outscored 20-3. I followed that by discussing the sorry state of the Oilers in the last edition of this column, and their situation proceeded to get worse with a loss to the lowly Sharks, prompting the firing of coach Jay Woodcroft.
So, who will I burden with featuring this week? Rather than focus on the negative, why not shift our gaze to one of the best teams in the league? After over a month of play, I think it’s fair to say that reports of Boston’s demise over the summer have been greatly exaggerated.
It was logical to expect the Bruins to decline after losing significant pieces over the summer, most notably Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci due to retirement, but Boston’s 11-1-2 start is only a slight deviation from its 12-2-0 opening in 2022-23. How have they managed that? It really just comes down to the one thing that hasn’t changed: The goaltending.
Through 14 games in 2022-23, Boston had surrendered just 32 goals versus 28 over the same span this year. In the previous campaign that was entirely due to Linus Ullmark -- Jeremy Swayman struggled in the early portion of that season -- whereas this year it’s been a joint effort between Ullmark and Swayman, but the result is the same: Amazing goaltending wins games.
That has shielded Boston’s record from the reality that this genuinely is a worse iteration of the Bruins. Through 14 contests last year, Boston led the league offensively with 4.00 goals per game. By contrast, the Bruins are in the middle of the pack this season at 3.21.
David Pastrnak has enjoyed a near identical start to his 2023-24 campaign (21 points versus 22 points last year) and having Brad Marchand healthy from the start of the season (he missed the opening eight contests of 2022-23) helps. However, that’s not enough to make up for the loss of Bergeron (12 points in 14 contests), Taylor Hall (nine points) and David Krejci (nine points). There’s been a trickle-down impact in the Bruins’ scoring depth too: Boston had 12 multi-goal players at this point last year compared to eight today.
But what we’ve seen is all that extra offense was a waste. When you have goaltending this good, what does it matter? In 2022-23, Boston scored four or more goals in four of their first six contests. The Bruins did that just once in the same span this campaign. But so what? Boston not only won its first six contests this year but did so by two or more goals in all but one occasion.
The takeaway here is that those who predicted Boston’s decline were underestimating just how much their success is truly linked to their goaltending and how much the Bruins could afford to regress before it would actually start to impact their record.
Then again, there’s still a lot of the campaign left. The 2022-23 Bruins didn’t just get off to a strong start, they maintained it all year, finishing 65-12-5. This year’s weaker offense also makes Boston more vulnerable to injuries. When Brad Marchand was hurt at the start of 2022-23, Boston had enough talent to shrug it off. Could these Bruins do the same? What if a couple of middle-six forwards get hurt? Boston isn’t exactly swimming in depth anymore to fill the void.
Time will tell, but while Boston is better than some gave it credit for, it might also prove to be a bit of a glass canon.
The Blue Jackets got off to a 3-2-0 start, but they’ve posted a 1-5-4 record since, including five consecutive losses. They’ll try to right the ship this week with home games against Pittsburgh and Arizona on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, followed by road contests versus Washington on Saturday and Philadelphia on Sunday.
Despite the Blue Jackets’ continued struggles, there have been some individual standout performers. Defenseman Erik Gudbranson has contributed five assists over his last four contests. He’s not a bad short-term pickup to ride while he’s hot, especially because he also has 13 PIM and 39 hits in 15 games this year, so the blueliner offers a bit of versatility.
Rookie Adam Fantilli is also looking good. He’s on a three-game scoring streak, giving him four goals and nine points through 15 contests. That puts him in a tie for fourth in the rookie scoring race. Fantilli has a top-six role and is on the first power-play unit. He’s likely to finish the campaign with 45-55 points.
New Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch has a pretty favorable stretch to start his NHL career. The Oilers will host the Islanders on Monday and the Kraken on Wednesday -- both of which are off to mild starts -- before facing Tampa Bay, which is just 6-5-4 due in no small part to the continued absence of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (back). Edmonton has a lot of ground to cover to claw back into the playoff race, but taking four of six points this week is entirely doable.
How much of the Oilers’ problems can be fixed with coaching change is up for debate, but teams do typically get at least a short-term boost following a bench boss firing, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Edmonton does well this week.
A new coach also has the potential to be a reset point for struggling players. I’m not expecting Connor McDavid, who has been subpar by his high standards with two goals and 10 points in 11 contests, to see an immediate spike in production. Knoblauch was McDavid’s coach with the OHL’s Erie Otters, so I’m sure McDavid will play well under him, but the superstar might be playing through an injury right now, which makes a coaching change matter less as far as he’s concerned -- at least in the short-term.
Do you know who else Knoblauch coached with Erie, though? Connor Brown. Before the season, it was hoped that Brown, reunited with McDavid, might have the best season of his career, but so far Brown has failed to record even a single point. The 29-year-old is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, but when he returns, perhaps working under Knoblauch will do him some good.
I’m also interested to see if Darnell Nurse can rekindle his offensive game after recording just four points through 13 contests this season, down from 43 in 2023-24. Rather than Knoblauch directly, it might be the presence of new assistant coach Paul Coffey who aids Nurse.
The Islanders are on the road this week with games in Edmonton on Monday, Vancouver on Wednesday, Seattle on Thursday and Calgary on Saturday. It’s not the easiest schedule, but it is a packed one, so there is an opportunity here for players to have above-average weeks.
Backup Semyon Varlamov will be one to watch. The Islanders are likely going to use him in one, maybe two starts. With three of the four teams being middling-to-poor offensively this campaign (Edmonton, Calgary and Seattle), this seems like a favorable stretch to lean on the Islanders’ goaltending.
On the offensive side of things, the Islanders aren’t a strong group and not many players have performed well recently.
Simon Holmstrom is an exception, providing three goals over his last five contests. He’s an interesting player. Selected with the No. 23 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, he has offensive upside, but the Islanders used him sparingly last year (an average of 11:06 per game), which resulted in him providing just six goals and nine points in 50 contests. Even with his recent run, he’s been limited to four points through 12 outings this year, but the Islanders seem to be experimenting with him in a bigger role, bringing him up to an average of 14:58 over his last four contests. Keep an eye on his usage and performance over the next few games.
The Penguins’ rough start is well behind them after winning each of their last four games. They’ll look to keep that going this week with games in Columbus on Tuesday, versus New Jersey on Thursday, in Carolina on Saturday and finally against the Golden Knights on Sunday.
Erik Karlsson has been a huge part of the Penguins’ recent success. He got off to a slow start with a goal and four points over his first eight contests this year, but he’s bounced back with a five-game scoring streak, providing three goals and nine points in that stretch. Maybe he needed a bit of time to settle in with the Penguins, but he should finish the campaign with over 70 points so long as he stays healthy.
Pittsburgh has other stars excelling too, but one lower-profile player who is quietly having a productive campaign is Lars Eller. He’s up to two goals and seven points in 13 contests and is also entering the week on a three-game point streak. With how packed this week is, you might want to consider grabbing him temporarily. However, he’s primarily a third-liner, and it’s rare to see him on the power play, so don’t keep him long-term.
Seattle hasn’t been able to replicate its 2022-23 success, going just 5-7-3 thus far. The Kraken are averaging an okay 3.27 goals per game dating back to Oct. 19 though, so while their overall of 2.60 is poor, that’s not reflective of their recent play.
Jaden Schwartz has been a big part of their improvement. After a quiet start to the campaign (two points through five contests), he’s recorded at least a point in each of his last nine outings, providing six goals and 12 points over that stretch. At this point, he’s a solid sell-high candidate in fantasy leagues. Schwartz is a solid forward but won’t be able to maintain this level of production. If he finishes the season in the 50-60 point range, that would be seen as a win. Keep in mind that he also has a somewhat lengthy injury history, which adds another element of risk to the equation.
Eeli Tolvanen is also on a roll, contributing two goals and five points over his last four contests. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that hot streak extended, especially against Colorado and Edmonton, which are two teams plagued by struggling goaltending (Edmonton’s is obvious, but Alexandar Georgiev has a 4.73 GAA and an .842 save percentage over his last seven contests).
At the other end of the spectrum, Kailer Yamamoto hasn’t done much yet, supplying just two goals and four points in 15 contests. There was a time when the 25-year-old seemed set to become a great top-six forward, but outside of his 41-point showing in 2021-22, that hasn’t panned out yet. Seattle is still giving him every opportunity, often deploying him on the top power-play unit, so there is still hope there.
The Blues will host Tampa Bay on Tuesday before going on a road trip with stops in San Jose on Thursday, Los Angeles on Saturday and Anaheim on Sunday. The Lightning and Sharks are two of the bottom-five teams in terms of goals allowed per game this year, so this seems like a good time to grab a Blues forward.
Robert Thomas couldn’t be hotter going into the week. He’s contributed five goals and 10 points over his last six contests, including four assists versus Colorado on Saturday. Brayden Schenn came up huge against the Avalanche too, supplying a hat trick and an assist to elevate him to nine points in 13 outings this year.
Neither is likely to be available in most fantasy leagues, but Oskar Sundqvist probably is. While the bottom-six forward isn’t a good long-term option, he has chipped in a goal and three points over the last two contests, so he’s warm going into a favorable stretch.
The Lightning will play just three games this week, but the competition isn’t bad for them. As noted above, they’ll be in St. Louis on Tuesday, followed by a contest in Chicago on Thursday before hosting Edmonton on Saturday. The Blackhawks unsurprising have a poor 5-8-0 record and while Edmonton’s coaching change adds an extra X-Factor to the meeting, the Oilers are near the bottom of the pack too.
Tampa Bay will continue to be without Vasilevskiy -- though he’s currently on track to return around American Thanksgiving -- and they’re also missing Conor Sheary (upper body). Erik Cernak’s (undisclosed) status isn’t known at the time of writing, but he did exit Saturday’s game. Nikita Kucherov didn’t play Saturday, but unless his illness is significant, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him play Tuesday or Thursday at the latest.
If Cernak ends up missing additional time due to his injury, then we might see Philippe Myers draw into the lineup. He wouldn’t be an offensive threat, but if you’re fishing for PIM and hits, then Myers would be worthy of consideration should he play.
If you’re looking for scoring outside of the usual candidates, Alex Barre-Boulet might still be worthy of consideration. He has just a goal and an assist over his last six contests, but Barre-Boulet has shown he can be productive with limited minutes and the defensive quality of Chicago (3.46 goals allowed per game) and Edmonton (3.92) improves the chances of him factoring in later in the week.
Along with Boston, Vegas has dominated the league with its 12-2-1 start. The Golden Knights haven’t played since Friday, so they’ll be well rested for their road trip, which will take them to Washington on Tuesday, Montreal on Thursday, Philadelphia on Saturday and Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Like Boston, Vegas’ success starts with its goaltending. Adin Hill leads the team with a 7-1-1 record, 1.75 GAA and .939 save percentage in nine contests while Logan Thompson has been a fantastic alternative, providing a 5-1-0 record, 2.31 GAA and .923 save percentage in six games. With a full road schedule this week, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them each get two starts.
The Golden Knights outshine Boston offensively though, averaging 3.67 goals per game. William Karlsson has been leading the charge with eight goals and 18 points in 15 contests this year, including five markers and seven points over his last five outings. His shooting percentage has climbed to 32.0, which is a huge red flag. To put that in perspective, he had a 23.4 shooting percentage in 2016-17 when he set career highs with 43 goals and 78 points in 82 appearances. After that campaign, many pointed to his shooting percentage as being unsustainable and used that as part of their argument that he would decline -- which he did in 2018-19 to 24 goals and 56 points. Karlsson is extremely unlikely to continue to cash in on nearly a third of his shots, so the goals will probably dry up in the not-too-distant future, which makes him a potential sell-high candidate.
When it comes to someone to pick up, Michael Amadio, who had two assists Friday, is a decent candidate. His value is linked to the availability of Nicolas Roy (undisclosed) and Chandler Stephenson (upper body), though. With those two out, Amadio is seeing some use in a top-six capacity, but that will change once one or both of Vegas’ injured centers return.
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By NHL standards, the San Jose Sharks are very bad at playing hockey. That’s among the least controversial takes I could possibly have, and had I made the same statement back in September, I wouldn’t have gotten much pushback. They were 22-44-16 last year even with Norris Trophy-winner Erik Karlsson, so unsurprisingly, they’re even worse after trading him.
So, of course, they’re bad, but is it possible this is the worst NHL team ever? The fact that they’re 0-8-1 is dreadful, but that alone isn’t unprecedented. The 1993-94 Sharks also had just one point through nine contests before salvaging the campaign with a so-so 33-35-16 record.
Still, it’s not just that they’re winless, it’s that their offense is non-existent with nine goals in nine games. At least in 1993-94, the Sharks had some ability to find the back of the net even during their opening struggles, managing 13 goals.
Let’s give some context for how bad San Jose’s woes are: The all-time worst offense was the 1928-29 Chicago Blackhawks, which finished with an average of 0.75 goals per game. The second worst is the 2023-24 Sharks -- at least so far, and that is the silver lining because there is reason to believe the Sharks might improve.
Logan Couture (lower body) hasn’t played yet this season, but he has been skating, and once he returns, he should play a big role in guiding the offense. The Sharks also got Mikael Granlund (lower body) back Sunday after a seven-game absence, so that helps too.
Plus, San Jose has arguably been suffering from bad puck luck. Going into Sunday’s contest, its Expected Goals For stood at 17.43, per Moneypuck, which isn’t good (it was 31st in the league), but it’s far better than the eight markers the Sharks had to that point. In fact, their Goals For Above Expected of -9.43 was the worst in the league, so an argument could be made that they are due for a break and might see improvement even if they just continue playing as they have been.
The Sharks have also finished their grueling five-game road trip, so now they can rest and practice until Thursday’s contest versus Vancouver.
Many teams have light schedules this week, which made it a bit hard to find squads to highlight. Because of that, Anaheim made the cut despite playing in Pittsburgh on Monday and hosting the Golden Knights on Sunday. At least the Ducks get a home game versus Arizona on Wednesday. Additionally, the Penguins are off to a 3-5-0 start, so Karlsson’s new team isn’t faring especially well either.
The Ducks are also on a roll, having won three straight games to improve to 4-4-0. Frank Vatrano had a hat trick Saturday, giving him an incredible eight goals and nine points in eight contests. The 29-year-old has never recorded over 24 goals in a single season, and his 27.6 shooting percentage in 2023-24 seems unsustainable, especially when measured against his career average of 10.6. Still, there might be more left in this hot streak.
If you want someone with staying power though, Mason McTavish is the real deal. While he might not maintain his current point-per-game pace (three goals and eight points in eight appearances), the 20-year-old does have tremendous offensive upside and is logging big minutes, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him finish with 60-plus points.
Speaking of Anaheim’s young core, I wouldn’t worry too much about Trevor Zegras, who has just two points through eight contests. He’s averaging 3.00 shots per game, which is above his career average of 2.35, and it’s just a matter of time before he starts to heat up. He did score a goal Saturday, so perhaps that’s the start of his turnaround.
Wednesday’s game against Anaheim is the Coyotes’ only road contest of the week. Outside of that, Arizona will host Chicago, Montreal and Winnipeg on Monday, Thursday and Saturday, respectively. None of those teams entered the campaign with high expectations, though it is worth noting that the Canadiens have started hot with a 5-2-1 record.
Defenseman Sean Durzi will be one to watch this week. He has three goals and two assists through seven contests, including four points over his last four outings. This could be a big campaign for him. He had nine goals and 38 points in 72 outings with Los Angeles while averaging 19:47 of ice time last season. Now with Arizona, he’s averaging 23:23, including 4:41 with the man advantage.
Matias Maccelli is another young player looking to take a step up this year. He had 11 goals and 49 points in 64 appearances in 2022-23, which was good for fourth place in Calder Trophy voting. After a quiet start to the campaign, he’s entering Monday’s contest on a four-game point streak, during which he’s contributed a goal and four assists.
If you want a higher-risk play, there’s a good chance you could scoop up Alex Kerfoot for this week, especially after he went scoreless over the first seven games of the campaign. The reason why Kerfoot is worthy of consideration is because since Jason Zucker sustained a lower-body injury, Kerfoot has gained a spot on Arizona’s second power-play unit. It hasn’t led to production yet, but the 29-year-old forward did have 51 points in 82 contests with Toronto in 2021-22, and he’s surpassed the 40-point mark on three separate occasions, so he can contribute offensively.
The Stars have a full schedule this week. They’ll host Columbus on Monday, before starting a road trip that will take them to Calgary on Wednesday, Edmonton on Thursday and Vancouver on Saturday. The Oilers (2-5-1) and Flames (2-6-1) have gotten off to dreadful starts this season, so perhaps Dallas will be able to take advantage. In terms of goals allowed per game, Calgary ranks 28th (3.67) and Edmonton’s 31st (4.00), so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Stars’ forwards shine during those outings.
Keep an eye on Matt Duchene this week. The 32-year-old was held off the scoresheet over his first two contests with the Predators, but he’s starting to heat up, having registered an assist in each of his last two contests. Duchene should be plenty motivated while playing on a one-year, $3 million contract after being bought out by Nashville, and the Stars are putting him in a position to succeed by giving him an average of 17:52 of ice per game.
I’m less optimistic about Evgenii Dadonov -- at least in the short term. He did find the back of the net Tuesday, ending his season-opening four-game point drought, but it wasn’t enough to impress coach Peter DeBoer, who deployed him for just 13:37 versus Toronto on Thursday. Dadonov also hasn’t seen any power-play ice time over the last two contests, and until that changes, I don’t recommend using him.
Instead, Mason Marchment might surprise this week. He inherited Dadonov’s spot on the second power-play unit, and Marchment scored his first goal of the season while firing seven shots Thursday.
The Predators are on the road this week with games against Vancouver on Tuesday, Seattle on Thursday and Edmonton on Saturday. While a set of road contests is never ideal, there is an opportunity here for Nashville given struggles plaguing the Oilers and Kraken.
Luke Evangelista in particular might take advantage of Nashville’s cold competition. The 21-year-old forward has a goal and five points over his last four contests. He’s averaged just 14:57 of ice time this season, but that’s ballooned to 17:47 over his last three outings.
Evangelista’s linemate, Thomas Novak, is also clicking, with three goals and five points over his last five games. Novak recorded 17 goals and 43 points in 51 outings last year and might be able to flirt with the 60-point mark in 2023-24 if he stays healthy.
In net, it wouldn’t be surprising if Kevin Lankinen gets into a game. Sure, the schedule is spread out enough that it isn’t strictly necessary, but Juuse Saros has already started in eight straight contests, so it might be time to give him a breather. Lankinen has made one relief appearance, stopping just 17 of 19 shots, but he was solid when called upon last year with a 9-8-1 record, 2.75 GAA and .916 save percentage in 19 outings.
Like Nashville, New Jersey is on the road this week with games in Minnesota on Thursday, St. Louis on Friday and Chicago on Sunday. None of those adversaries have won a majority of their games, though the Blues at least have an even points percentage at 3-3-1.
Jack Hughes saw his season-opening seven-game point streak come to an end Sunday, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he bounces right back. He’s been dominant thus far with five goals and 18 points through eight appearances. Meanwhile, his teammate and brother Luke Hughes is starting to get comfortable in the NHL, collecting five assists over his last three outings to bring him up to six points overall. Luke’s role on the power play is a huge part of his value -- four of his points have come with the man advantage.
Tyler Toffoli had an amazing week, scoring a hat trick versus Montreal and totaling six goals and seven points over his last four contests. The Flames dealt him to New Jersey over the summer because he was entering the final year of his contract, but given their offensive woes this year, you’d have to think there is a wish there that things could have ended differently.
One Devils forward who isn’t hot, but worth keeping an eye on is Dawson Mercer. He has no points and just six shots through eight outings, but the 22-year-old forward should bounce back. With Nico Hischier (upper body) day-to-day, Mercer is getting a big role, logging a season-high 21:03 of ice time Sunday.
The Flyers have a busy week, hosting Carolina and Buffalo on Monday and Wednesday, respectively, before visiting the Sabres on Friday and promptly returning home to host the Kings on Saturday. None of those figure to be easy games, though the Flyers have defied expectations with their 4-3-1 record.
Bobby Brink is part of the reason why Philadelphia has done alright. He has two goals and four points over his last two contests, bringing him up to six points through seven outings. That offensive outburst has propelled him into a tie with Luke Hughes for second place on the rookie scoring list (Ottawa’s Ridly Greig leads the chart with seven points in eight games). Like a lot of young players, it wouldn’t be surprising if Brink is streaky this season, but he’s worth grabbing while he’s hot.
Another youngster, Owen Tippett, is also worth taking if available. After setting career highs in 2022-23 with 27 goals and 49 points in 77 outings, Tippett was held off the scoresheet for his first three contests this season before scoring a goal and five points over his last five outings. The 24-year-old has a top-six role and is seeing time on the power play.
Philadelphia’s busy schedule likely means Carter Hart will need a breather at some point this week, but it might not be Samuel Ersson who gets the start. Ersson’s been dreadful, stopping just 38 of 50 shots (.760 save percentage) over his first two appearances. Instead, it might be time to let Felix Sandstrom make his season debut. Sandstrom didn’t exactly wow in 2022-23 with a 3.72 GAA and an .880 save percentage in 20 outings, but at this point, he deserves a chance.
The Flyers also have Cal Petersen waiting in the AHL. However, the former Kings goaltender, who fell from grace last year with a 3.75 GAA and an .868 save percentage in 10 NHL appearances, hasn’t done well with AHL Lehigh Valley, recording a 3.76 GAA and an .884 save percentage in four contests, so he hasn’t put himself in a position to take advantage of Ersson’s struggles.
The Lightning will host the struggling Kraken on Monday before going on the road to face Columbus on Thursday and Ottawa on Saturday. All of those are winnable games for Tampa Bay.
The Lightning did struggle early on, in no small part because Jonas Johansson struggled early as Andrei Vasilevskiy’s (back) temporary replacement. Recently though, a switch has been flipped. Johansson has posted back-to-back shutouts while saving 55 shots over that stretch. It won’t last, but Seattle has averaged just 2.22 goals per game this year, so Johansson’s hot streak might extend at least one more game.
Nick Paul might be enjoying more than just a hot streak after contributing five goals and seven points through eight games. The 28-year-old’s career highs are 17 goals and 32 points, so some caution is needed when evaluating Paul, but this campaign does have the potential to be different. He’s carved out a spot on the top power-play unit, which has accounted for three of his goals as well as an assist thus far. Before this season, Paul had never averaged more than 1:12 per game with the man advantage, so keeping his current special team role would be a huge boost for him.
At 8-0-1, Vegas still hasn’t lost in regulation. The Golden Knights will seek to keep the good times rolling as they host Montreal, Winnipeg and Colorado on Monday, Thursday and Saturday, respectively. Vegas will conclude the week with a road contest versus Anaheim on Sunday.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Adin Hill and Logan Thompson each take two of those starts. They’ve combined for a 2.18 GAA and a .923 save percentage through nine contests, so coach Bruce Cassidy has no reason to disrupt the goalie rotation. It’s worth noting that Vegas ranks 31st in 5v5 expected goals against with 20.43, ahead of only the horrific Sharks, so if not for some stunning play from the netminders, the Golden Knights wouldn’t look nearly as good.
Then again, they’d still have William Karlsson, who is on a six-game point streak, providing three goals and five assists in that span. They’d also have Jack Eichel, who is having another strong campaign with three goals and nine points through nine outings.
One lower-profile player who is quietly doing his part is Michael Amadio. The 27-year-old has never recorded more than 27 points in a single season and is serving in a bottom-six capacity, so he’s not expected to have a big offensive season. That said, he might be worth a short-term pickup after scoring a goal and four points over his last four outings.
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The Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers meet in what may be, by temperature, the hottest Stanley Cup Final in history. Vegas finished the regular season with 111 points, tops in the Western Conference. The Golden Knights have advanced to the Final round of the postseason tournament after defeating the Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, and Winnipeg Jets.
It has been a decidedly different path to the Final for the Florida Panthers, who snuck into the postseason with 92 points, the fewest of any team to qualify for the playoffs.
The Panthers eliminated the Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Carolina Hurricanes – the first, fourth, and second-place teams in the league, respectively, during the regular season – on the way to this matchup with the fifth-place Golden Knights.
If Florida is going to win, there will be no doubt that they have earned it, going through such a daunting path.
Jack Eichel’s first playoff appearance has been a long time coming, but he is making the most of it. Eichel has 18 points in 17 games to lead the Golden Knights and has formed an outstanding line with Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault. The trio has controlled 56.2% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 12-4 during five-on-five play.
Marchessault has nine goals and 17 points, leading the Golden Knights with 62 shots on goal in 17 playoff contests. Barbashev, a pending free agent, is raising his offseason price tag with every game, contributing 15 points and playing a hard game, delivering 51 hits.
Part of what has made the Golden Knights so dangerous in the playoffs is their outstanding depth. Beyond the top line, captain Mark Stone has 15 points and Chandler Stephenson has 14. They skate on a line with Brett Howden, who has six points to go along with 51 hits.
William Karlsson centers the third line for Vegas and, in addition to fulfilling a checking role, also leads the Golden Knights with 10 goals in the playoffs. Reilly Smith chipped in 11 points and that pair of original Golden Knights have been joined by Michael Amadio, who has contributed seven points in 11 playoff games.
Vegas’ fourth line of William Carrier, Nicolas Roy, and Keegan Kolesar can hold their own and bring a physical presence. The Golden Knights have such strong depth that Teddy Blueger and Phil Kessel have been reduced to being part-time players, sitting for more games than they have dressed for in the playoffs.
Coming off his second consecutive 100-point season, Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk was already a star, but he has taken his game to a new level for the Panthers in the playoffs, leading the team with nine goals, 21 points, and four game-winning goals in 16 playoff games. He has been the proverbial straw that stirs the drink for the Panthers.
Tkachuk has mostly been skating on a line with Sam Bennett and Nick Cousins. Tkachuk and Bennett are not afraid to turn the game into a street fight, playing with the hard physical edge that is expected in playoff hockey.
Aleksander Barkov was the Panthers’ leader before Tkachuk arrived and has not been a dominant performer in the playoffs. He has 14 points and his line with Carter Verhaeghe and Anthony Duclair has outscored opponents 8-4 during five-on-five play, but that trio has also managed just 43.2% of expected goals, so there is room for improvement. Verhaeghe ranks second on the Panthers with 15 playoff points, while Duclair has contributed nine points.
Sam Reinhart is over-qualified as a third-line player, but he helps to diversify the Panthers’ attack, skating with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen. Reinhart ranks second among the Panthers with seven goals in the playoffs.
While forward depth is a clear strength for the Golden Knights, it is a notable weakness for the Panthers. Lundell and Luostarinen have three goals between them and fourth line contributors Eric Staal, Colin White, and either Ryan Lomberg or Zac Dalpe has combined for three goals. That is not a lot of production out of the lower half of the forward depth chart.
If the Panthers are going to compete in this series, they will likely need more contributions further down the lineup because it is asking a lot for Tkachuk to continue carrying the offense to the degree that he has so far in the postseason.
While all three of Vegas’ defense pairings are outscoring the opposition, only the duo of Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore is also driving play, controlling 54.5% of expected goals with Vegas outscoring opponents 11-8 with McNabb and Theodore on the ice during five-on-five play. Theodore has seven points in 16 playoff games, which is behind his regular-season pace of 41 points in 55 games.
Alex Pietrangelo leads Golden Knights defensemen with nine points in the postseason, and the Golden Knights are outscoring opponents 16-7 with Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez on the ice, despite managing 46.4% of expected goals, during five-on-five play.
Similarly, Vegas has outscored opponents 12-4 with the third pair of Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud on the ice during five-on-five play, despite managing 45.9% of expected goals. They do tend to play quite a bit to be considered the third pairing, as Hague and Whitecloud have seen the most five-on-five action of any Golden Knights defense tandem in the playoffs.
Florida’s defense is led by Brandon Montour, who has scored six goals in the playoffs, and leads the Panthers with 59 shots on goal. However, he has been paired with Marc Staal and the Panthers have been outscored 10-7 while getting just 41.2% of expected goals during five-on-five play with that duo on the ice. That could be a concern when facing a Vegas team with a lot of forwards capable of taking advantage against suspect defense.
The Panthers are outscoring opponents 10-5 with Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling on the ice even though they have generated 46.1% of expected goals at five-on-five. Montour, Forsling, and Ekblad are all averaging more than 24 minutes of ice time per game in the playoffs, so Florida does tend to lean on their top defenders.
Florida’s third pairing of Radko Gudas and Josh Mahura does not play as much, but they have been relatively effective. The Panthers have pulled nearly 55.0% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 5-4 with Gudas and Mahura on the ice.
Florida’s defensive track record in the playoffs has been subpar. They have allowed 33.3 shots against per 60 minutes in all situations, which is the second highest among all playoff teams. To be fair, Vegas has allowed 31.4 shots against per 60 minutes, which is fourth highest, so neither team has been in shutdown mode on the path to the Final. Of course, Florida has a secret weapon of sorts when the defense has faltered.
After playing at a below average level for three of the past four seasons, and not even starting the playoffs as the Panthers’ No.1 goaltender, Sergei Bobrovsky heads into the Cup Final as the odds-on favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy. In 14 playoff games, Bobrovsky has a .935 save percentage and leads all goaltenders with 19.45 Goals Saved Above Expected. He is a two-time Vezina Trophy winner, so it’s not like this performance is completely out of nowhere, but there has not been a lot in recent seasons to suggest that this level of play was still possible. Can he keep it up for one more round?
If Bobrovsky is an unlikely goalie to backstop a team to the Stanley Cup, what would that say about Vegas’ Adin Hill? The goaltending carousel has been turning all season for the Golden Knights, with injuries forcing the team to start five different goaltenders after presumed No. 1 Robin Lehner was deemed out for the season. In the playoffs Laurent Brossoit started for Vegas, but Hill has stepped in and delivered high quality performance, posting a .937 save percentage with 10.78 Goals Saved Above Expected in 11 games.
The team that gets the better goaltending should have an edge in the series. The challenge is figuring out which one of these surprising goaltending stories will continue.
Vegas’ power play has been a problem area for the entire playoffs and their 4.75 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play is the worst among teams that advanced beyond the first round. The Golden Knights have 10 power play goals in 17 playoff games, with Eichel and Stone both accounting for three.
With 9.30 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four action, Florida’s power play has been a little more dangerous, tallying 12 goals in 16 playoff games, led by Tkachuk with four and Reinhart with three.
This power play edge may not fully materialize for Florida, however, because Vegas has been very disciplined in its approach, spending 4:22 per game shorthanded, compared to 5:29 per game for the Panthers.
It is a good thing that Vegas does not take many penalties, because they have been utterly helpless when trying to kill them, allowing the highest rate of shot attempts, shots, and expected goals against during four-on-five play in the postseason. They get bailed out by goaltending from time to time, but if the Golden Knights take penalties, that would just be asking for trouble.
Florida’s penalty killing has not been terribly effective either, allowing higher than average rates of shot attempts, shots, and expected goals against during four-on-five play. This could be an area of vulnerability for Florida, but only if Vegas can somehow turn their power play into a viable threat.
Vegas has been the more effective team during five-on-five play, but neither team has controlled play with real authority. Both the Panthers and Golden Knights have reached this point thanks in large part to outstanding goaltending and that puts a lot of pressure on Bobrovsky and Hill going into the Final. In a tightly contested series, Vegas’ superior depth gives them a slight edge. Golden Knights in 7.
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Both the Stars and Golden Knights have reached the Stanley Cup Final recently. The Golden Knights are in their sixth season, so their entire history is recent, and they reached the Final in 2018, losing to the Washington Capitals. The Stars were defeated by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2020 Final.

Vegas’s strength has been depth, and that has allowed them to overcome injuries throughout the season but also to receive contributions up and down the lineup. With a relatively healthy lineup in the postseason, Jack Eichel and Mark Stone are leading the way offensively, with 14 and 12 points, respectively.
However, seven more Golden Knights forwards have accrued at least five points through 11 playoff games. Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault flank Eichel on the top line, and that trio has controlled better than 57% of expected goals during five-on-five play in the postseason. Marchessault started slowly in the playoffs, but produced eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 23 shots on goal in the last four games against Edmonton.
Mark Stone and speedy center Chandler Stephenson are a strong foundation on the second line, with Brett Howden moving up the depth chart to join them. Stephenson is tied for the team lead with six goals. Howden’s production dipped against Edmonton, but he does bring a physical presence in a supporting role.
Reilly Smith, William Karlsson, and Nicolas Roy give the Golden Knights a high quality third line. Smith and Karlsson both have produced eight points in 11 playoff games.
The fourth line of William Carrier, Teddy Blueger, and Keegan Kolesar does not score a lot, but will take a pound of flesh as Carrier and Kolesar lead the Golden Knights in hits/60 in the playoffs. Michael Amadio has appeared in nine playoff games, but Blueger joined the lineup for the last two games against Edmonton. Phil Kessel has not dressed for Vegas since Game 5 of the first round.
Roope Hintz has elevated his game in the postseason, leading the Stars with nine goals and 19 points in 13 playoff games. His shot rate has increased, and the Stars have controlled 68.5% of expected goals with Hintz on the ice during five-on-play in the playoffs. Jason Robertson has managed just two goals and while he has 10 assists and has been driving play, the Stars have room to get better if Robertson’s production gets back on track. Joe Pavelski suffered a concussion in Game 1 of the first round against Minnesota but scored eight goals in seven games against Seattle. That trio is in a strong contender for Like the Golden Knights, the Stars have a quality top nine and have been able to count on
Like the Golden Knights, the Stars have a quality top nine and have been able to count on any of their top three lines to chip in offensively. Veterans Max Domi, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Evgenii Dadonov all have at least nine points. Mason Marchment and rookie Wyatt Johnston both contributed four goals and six points.
Radek Faksa, Luke Glendening, Joel Kiviranta, and Ty Dellandrea, in some combination, fill fourth line roles for the most part and they have had a mixed bag of results. For example, the Stars have controlled 55.3% of expected goals but have been outscored 9-3 with Dellandrea on the ice for five-on-five play in the playoffs.
Both teams have quality depth, but Vegas appears to have a deeper reservoir of talent up front.
Alex Pietrangelo has seven assists while playing more than 24 minutes per game but his most memorable play in the postseason may be his two-handed slash on Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl. Pietrangelo was suspended for Game 5 of that series as a result. He has paired with Alec Martinez and that pairing has had just 42.5 CF% and 46.7 xGF%, but they have somehow outscored the opposition 11-4 during five-on-five play.
Vegas’ second pairing of Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb, who offer a good mix of skills, from Theodore’s puck movement to McNabb’s bone-crunching hits, has been their most effective pair in the postseason. They have pulled 52.2% expected goals as a tandem in the playoffs, and they are the only two Vegas blueliners on the right side of 50% in that metric.
The Golden Knights’s third pair of Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud is relatively solid. They have been on the wrong end of Corsi (47.3%) and expected goals (47.5%) but have outscored the opposition 6-3 in the postseason.
Miro Heiskanen had a tremendous season and has contributed nine assists while playing more than 28 minutes per game in 13 playoff games. While he has played a ton, Heiskanen has had just slightly positive results so far in the playoffs, with a 52.2 CF% and 51.7 xGF% while the Stars have outscored opponents 8-6 with Heiskanen on the ice. Paired with Ryan Suter, Heiskanen has been very good, but hardly dominant, in the postseason.
The trouble for the Stars lands on the second pair, where Jani Hakanpaa and Esa Lindell have managed just 43.5% of expected goals and been outscored 11-4 during five-on-five play in the playoffs. Hakanpaa was bumped from the defensive rotation for Colin Miller in Game 7 against Seattle.
Where the Stars have had an edge in the playoffs is with the third pair of Thomas Harley and Joel Hanley on the ice. Harley has seven points, and the Stars are controlling 63.2% of expected goals with him on the ice for five-on-five play. Hanley has appeared in eight games and the Stars have 69.2% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 8-2 with him on the ice during five-on-five play.
If Miller replacing Hakanpaa can’t fix the second pair, then that is an area of weakness for the Golden Knights to exploit.
While both clubs have some top end blueliners, there are points of vulnerability on both units. Considering the depth of forward talent on both teams, the challenge for the Golden Knights and Stars will be minimizing the potential mismatches.
Dallas’ Jake Oettinger was so highly regarded coming out of last season’s first round loss to Calgary and he was comfortably above average during the regular season, but he was unexpectedly shaky in the second round against Seattle, posting a .877 save percentage in seven games. Given his opposition, though, Oettinger should be expected to give the Stars an edge.
Vegas has been churning through goaltenders. The latest to take on the starting job is Adin Hill, who played well after jumping in for an injured Laurent Brossoit. Hill had a .915 save percentage in 27 regular-season games and put up a .934 save percentage in five games against the Oilers. Those are solid numbers but the challenge for Hill, and all Golden Knights goaltenders this season, is staying healthy for more than two weeks at a time.
Vegas’ power play has been a problem area and is the weakest in the postseason for the four teams remaining. The Golden Knights have scored 4.81 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranks 13th. Eichel and Stone have combined to score five of Vegas’ seven power play goals in the playoffs.
Dallas’ power play was excellent during the regular season, ranking second in the league with 9.40 goals per 60 during five-on-four play, and that rate has improved in the postseason, up to 12.41. Tyler Seguin leads the Stars with four power play goals in the playoffs while Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz both have eight points with the man advantage.
The efficiency of the Stars’ power play could pose a major problem for the Golden Knights because Vegas’ PK has been abysmal. They have allowed 17.04 goals against per 60 during four-on-five play, ranking 15th out of 16 playoff teams.
By contrast, the Stars’ penalty killing unit was strong during the regular season and that has carried over into the playoffs. Dallas has allowed 4.81 goals against per 60 at four-on-five, ranking third in the playoffs.
This should be a competitive series because both the Stars and Golden Knights have shown great resilience to reach this point of the playoffs. However, the Stars have a significant special teams edge and should likely have the better goaltender, which is enough to nudge this towards Big D. Stars in 7.
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After dispatching the Los Angeles Kings in six games in Round 1, the Edmonton Oilers head into a second-round matchup against the Pacific Division winning Vegas Golden Knights. The Golden Knights might have finished higher in the standings, but the Oilers are the team that is both favored to win the series, and one of the top favorites to capture the Stanley Cup.
The Oilers have been a freight train since the trade deadline, so it appears that they have momentum on their side, but the Golden Knights made short work of the Winnipeg Jets in the first round and are not likely to be an easy out.
One of the benefits of having two superstars is that it is so difficult to shut down both. As ridiculous as it sounds, the Kings could have felt okay limiting Connor McDavid to three goals and 10 points in six games (a 41-goal and 137-point pace in 82 games) in the first round, but then Leon Draisaitl notched seven goals and 11 points in the series. They combined for 11 power play points in the first round.
The Oilers received four points against Los Angeles from wingers Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, Zach Hyman, and Klim Kostin. Edmonton’s depth forwards may not be scoring much, but they are controlling play. Edmonton controlled more than two-thirds of expected goals against Los Angeles when Kostin, Derek Ryan, Warren Foegele, and Ryan McLeod were on the ice.
For the Oilers to make a Stanley Cup run, they will need production from more than McDavid and Draisaitl, and it appears that they have enough quality depth to handle that responsibility.
The Golden Knights don’t have elite scorers like McDavid and Draisaitl, but there is still plenty of forward talent on hand.
Jack Eichel finally arrived in the playoffs, for the first time in his career, and he contributed three goals and five points with 17 shots on goal in five games against Winnipeg, a good start. Eichel’s line is not the most dangerous for the Golden Knights, though.
Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone both had eight points in the first round, and Brett Howden chipped in four points, while the trio controlled 60.7% of expected goals while outscoring Winnipeg 5-1 during five-on-five play.
Forward depth is a strong suit for the Golden Knights. William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith are proven performers, even though Marchessault managed just two assists in Round 1. Vegas has also received quality contributions from the likes of Michael Amadio, Ivan Barbashev and hard-hitting wingers Keegan Kolesar and William Carrier. The return of Carrier to the lineup bumped Phil Kessel to the press box for Game 5 against Winnipeg.
While Vegas looks like they might have an edge in forward depth, the question is whether that is going to be enough to overcome two of the most prolific scorers in the league.
When the Oilers moved out Tyson Barrie as part of the deal to acquire Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline, Evan Bouchard was the defender set up to step into a first unit power play role. While Bouchard and Ekholm were effective at evens against Los Angeles, controlling 54.7% of shot attempts and 51.4% of expected goals during five-on-five play. Bouchard kicked it up a notch on the power play, though, scoring eight of his 10 first-round points with the man advantage.
The Oilers outscored the Kings 5-2 when the pairing of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci were on the ice during five-on-five play, but Edmonton managed just 45.2% of shot attempts and 45.8% of expected goals in those situations, so there is some defensive vulnerability.
Brett Kulak, Vincent Desharnais, and Phillip Broberg round out the defense corps and all three had solid underlying numbers against the Kings. Desharnais was outscored 5-2, but that seems like randomness since the Oilers were controlling 62.8% of expected goals with Desharnais on the ice.
The Golden Knights used eight defensemen in Round 1, with Brayden Pachal and Ben Hutton getting into the lineup as injury replacements for Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb.
Alex Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez were the top pair against Winnipeg. The Golden Knights controlled 51.6% of expected goals and outscored the Jets 8-3 with that duo on the blueline. Theodore and McNabb both missed Game 5 against the Jets, but when they were on the ice together Vegas had 56.1% of the expected goals during five-on-five play against Winnipeg.
Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud are a strong third pairing for Vegas, when the team is healthy. They can move up the depth chart when Theodore and McNabb are out.
Vegas is a strong defensive team, allowing 2.78 all-situations expected goals against per 60 minutes, the third lowest rate in the first round.
Edmonton’s rookie netminder Stuart Skinner started all six games against the Kings in the first round, winning three. He was pulled after the first period in Game 4, with Jack Campbell stopping 27 of 28 shots to lead the Oilers to a pivotal victory. Skinner was an above average starter during the regular season but had a .890 save percentage against Los Angeles. If the Oilers are going to go on a Stanley Cup run, they will need better than .890 goaltending.
Even though he played just 11 games for the Golden Knights in the regular season, spending most of the year in the AHL after recovering from hip surgery, Laurent Brossoit was the clear starter in goal going into the series against Winnipeg, and Brossoit posted a .915 save percentage in five starts. He may not be one to steal too many victories, but solidly average goaltending can go a long way.
This is not a series in which either team can be supremely confident in their goaltending. Anything can happen with a goalie in the small sample of a playoff series, but the range of outcomes is practically infinite when it comes to relatively unproven options like Skinner and Brossoit.
Edmonton had a historically strong power play during the regular season, and it was even better in the first round against Los Angeles, ranking first among playoff teams with 20.96 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. This is an area where Edmonton’s elite talent takes over.
The Golden Knights power play ranked 10th with 7.06 goals per 60 during five-on-four play in the first round. That comes after ranking 19th in goals per 60 during the regular season, so there is a clear difference in quality between the two teams when they have the man advantage. This is standard for the Oilers, of course.
While Edmonton’s penalty killing ranked 11th in the first round with 11.87 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play, the Golden Knights’ penalty kill was torched for five goals in 14:45 of four-on-five play (20.34 goals against per 60 minutes) against Winnipeg, the second worst rate in the first round of the postseason. Vegas allowed 85.42 shots against per 60 during four-on-five play in Round 1, the only team to surrender more than 70 shots against per 60. That’s a small sample, but it is ugly in a small sample.
If Vegas’ penalty killing is indeed a liability, then facing an Oilers power play that has been historically great figures to be an enormous problem.
Momentum is riding with the Oilers and even though they finished two points behind the Golden Knights in the standings, Edmonton had a better goal differential and had the league’s best record (17-2-1) after the trade deadline. That leads to Edmonton being favored even though Vegas holds home ice advantage.
Vegas has been an excellent defensive team and has been boosted by the return of Mark Stone for the playoffs. Is that enough to help them hold off the Oilers? It’s possible, but I’m still leaning towards the superstars carrying the series for Edmonton. Oilers in 6.
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Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
This week, a look at fallout from the Bo Horvat trade, veterans offering midseason value, young players getting a chance to prove they belong and more in this NHL All-Star break edition.
#1 With all due respect to Matt Nieto going back to Colorado, the first big trade chip to move before the trade deadline was Bo Horvat going from Vancouver to the New York Islanders. Horvat is in the midst of a career season, with 31 goals in 49 games, and he has 11 goals on the power play. That ought to help an Islanders power play that has a league-worst net of 3.57 goals per 60 minutes (4.76 goals for, 1.19 goals against) during five-on-four play. There is most likely regression coming for Horvat. He has scored on a career-high 21.7% of his shots and his on-ice shooting percentage is pushing 11.0%, so even if the opportunity is going to be better on The Island, the percentages are due to fall.
#2 It seems that Mathew Barzal should benefit from Horvat’s arrival. It provides him with a finisher, and it looks like Barzal could slide to the wing to accommodate the new arrival. Barzal has 43 points (12 G, 31 A) in 51 games and that 0.84 points per game is pretty much in line with Barzal’s production over the past five seasons. He has not been able to get back to the point per game pace that he established in his rookie season of 2017-2018.
#3 Heading to Vancouver, left winger Anthony Beauvillier is a 25-year-old who has yet to record a 40-point season but has shown enough offensively that he should get plenty of opportunity in a top-six role with the Canucks. If Vancouver is genuinely rebuilding, they probably need to move another winger or two, and with Ilya Mikheyev done for the season due to a torn ACL, Beauvillier has some hope for better production down the stretch.
#4 The prosect that Vancouver acquired, Aatu Raty, was a second-round pick in 2021. He was expected to be a high first-round pick but had a rough draft year, scoring six points in 35 games in Finland’s Liiga. He rebounded the following season, though, putting up 41 points (13 G, 28 A) in 47 games, helping to re-establish his prospect value. He scored a couple of goals in a dozen games with the Islanders this season, but the 20-year-old is not yet ready for a regular role in the NHL. With more time to develop in the AHL, though, he could provide long-term value in dynasty leagues.
#5 Boston Bruins winger Pavel Zacha is a versatile player who can move around the lineup and, with Jake DeBrusk out, he offers Boston a viable option in a top-six role. Zacha has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in his past 12 games, and while some of that is due to him scoring on 28.6% of his shots, he is giving Boston the secondary scoring that they need to remain at the top of the league.
#6 This was supposed to be a breakout season for second year Florida Panthers center Anton Lundell but that was not happening. In order to shake things up, Lundell has been moved to left wing on the top line, with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, and that is having the desired effect as Lundell has seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 21 shots on goal in the past eight games. As long as he remains in that spot, Lundell has fantasy appeal.
#7 Carolina Hurricanes winger Teuvo Teravainen has had four seasons with more than 60 points, but he has not been producing at that level this season. He missed some time with an upper-body injury, but he is starting to deliver the points. In his past 14 games, Teravainen has 11 points (2 G, 9 A) and has returned to play on the top line with Sebastian Aho.
#8 Although he has flashed potential before, Philadelphia Flyers center Morgan Frost is making the most of his opportunity to play in a scoring role. The 23-year-old has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 29 shots on goal in 14 games since the calendar flipped to 2023. There is some risk associated with Frost because he has not established himself over a long period of time, and head coach John Tortorella is not afraid to make him a healthy scratch, but there are signs that Frost is starting to realize his potential as a scoring center.
#9 Injuries have forced the Toronto Maple Leafs to shuffle their lines and Calle Jarnkrok has given the Leafs a legitimate option in a scoring role. IN 20 games since returning from injury, Jarnkrok has put up 16 points (7 G, 9 A), albeit with just 30 shots on goal. He is averaging 13:37 of ice time per game, his lowest since 2014-2015, but is capable of handling more if necessary.
#10 Quinton Byfield was the second overall pick in the 2020 Draft, and it has taken him some time to live up to his promise, and he’s not there yet, but he appears to be moving the right direction. After producing 15 points (9 G, 6 A) in 16 AHL games, he was called up to the Kings and has a modest six points (2 G, 4 A) in 16 games since returning to the NHL. More importantly, though, he is getting reps at left wing on the top line alongside Anze Kopitar.
#11 The 28th pick in the 2020 Draft by the Ottawa Senators, Ridly Greig was called up to the Sens after producing 23 points (12 G, 11 A) in 28 AHL games. He opened his NHL career with eight shots on goal against the Islanders and picked up a couple of assists in four games. It is probably too soon to expect significant production from Greig, but he could play a significant role for Ottawa the rest of the way.
#12 Drafted 26th overall in the 2019 Draft by the Calgary Flames, Jakob Pelletier has been crushing it in the American Hockey League, scoring 98 points (43 G, 55 A) in 99 games across the past two seasons, so he has earned his promotion to Calgary, where he has yet to record a point in four games. However, he is also getting a chance on the second line with Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau, which is at least the kind of opportunity required for Pelletier to live up to his offensive potential.
#13 Although he has just eight points (3 G, 5 A) in 17 games this season, New Jersey Devils left winger Ondrej Palat is worth checking out. He missed two-and-a-half months following groin surgery and it took him a few games to get back into the groove, but now has five points (1 G, 4 A) with 13 shots on goal in the past seven games. He is skating on the left side of Devils captain Nico Hischier, which ought to keep Palat in position to put up a respectable point total.
#14 Last season, St. Louis Blues forward Ivan Barbashev erupted for a career-high 26 goals and 60 points and while he is not producing at the same level this season, he is also a prime candidate to get moved before the March 3 trade deadline. Barbashev has four points (3 G, 1 A) in the past five games, and with several injuries to St. Louis forwards, he has played more than 18 minutes in each of his past four games.
#15 Ottawa Senators right winger Mathieu Joseph has a modest 12 points (3 G, 9 A) in 31 games but keep an eye on him. He is getting a shot at right wing on the top line alongside Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle and getting that opportunity could set Joseph up for bigger production. Remember, he had 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in 11 games last season after he was acquired from the Tampa Bay Lightning.
#16 With word that Vegas Golden Knights captain Mark Stone is underdoing his second back surgery in less than a year, the Golden Knights are left in need of some answers up front. Until external help is acquired, there will be chances for Michael Amadio and Paul Cotter to skate in top six roles. Amadio has just 12 points (7 G, 5 A) in 37 games, but when he had a chance to move up the lineup in December, he put up nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 21 shots on goal in a seven-game span. Cotter has 11 points (8 G, 3 A) in 30 games, but did score six goals in a 13-game span in December and January.
#17 The leading scorer among rookies, Seattle Kraken center Matty Beniers is out with an upper-body injury and that comes on the heels of a five-game scoreless streak. With Beniers out, there is more opportunity for centers Morgan Geekie and Alexander Wennberg to play substantial minutes for the Kraken. Geekie is typically a fourth-line center, but has seven points (1 G, 6 A) in 11 games this season when he has played more than 12 minutes. Wennberg is playing a career high 18:46 per game and has nine points (4 G, 5 A) in his past 14 games but he is also getting first-unit power play time and that is worth tracking.
#18 In the month of January there were 54 players to average at least a point per game (minimum 50 minutes), led by Jack Hughes (1.77), Zach Hyman (1.67), and Connor McDavid (1.67). Naturally, a lot of these players scoring better than a point per game over the course of a month are to be expected, but some of the more surprising names include defensemen Dougie Hamilton (1.23) and Vince Dunn (1.13), as well as forwards Kevin Hayes (1.07), Brandon Hagel (1.00), Tyler Toffoli (1.00), Joel Eriksson Ek (1.00), and Filip Chytil (1.00).
#19 Eriksson Ek ranked 10th in individual expected goals per game (0.55) in January so his production is backed by underlying numbers that show he is getting quality chances. Others among the Top 30 in January include Carter Verhaeghe (0.50), Blake Coleman (0.47), Michael Eyssimont (0.44), Boone Jenner (0.42), Anders Lee (0.42), and Mason McTavish (0.42). On the other hand, some notable forwards that are closer to the bottom of the list include Jack Roslovic (0.11), Jonathan Toews (0.13), Pavel Zacha (0.13), Evgeny Kuznetsov (0.14), Anthony Mantha (0.14), Ryan Strome (0.14), and Blake Wheeler (0.15).
#20 Don’t forget about goaltender Philipp Grubauer in Seattle. He has been mostly awful, posing an .891 save percentage in 72 games over the past two seasons, but if he can return to something resembling his previous form, there is still a chance for him to earn playing time with a quality Kraken team in front of him. In four starts in 2023, Grubauer has a .940 save percentage and while that is a small sample, a few more quality starts could help him push for more starts.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.
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