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Here's what's on my mind:
1. THE NHL'S SUPPOSED GOAL SCORING PROBLEM ISN'T ACTUALLY A PROBLEM
Three players are on-pace to break the 100-point player, despite the greatly exaggerated news of the 100-point player's demise. One is currently on pace for 90, but that could change tomorrow (there were three a week ago). Eight are on pace for 80-89 points. Twenty players are on-pace for 70-79 points. If anything, this demonstrates a more even distribution of wealth.
The other factor here is that, as much as we tout the improved quality of play (which is absolutely the case), the stars of today aren't necessarily better than the stars of yesterday. Sidney Crosby is not Wayne Gretzky. Ryan Getzlaf isn't Mario Lemieux. Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane aren't Steve Yzerman and Sergei Fedorov. It's just the reality of the situation.
Goaltending is better than it used to be. Defense is better than it used to be. Are those bad things? Of course not. Why would they be? It's not like we're seeing soccer-esque scores in the majority of hockey games. And besides, shouldn't the NHL be happy to showcase different aspects of the sport? It's not all about goals. I think the balance is perfect right now, and nothing needs to be changed.
2. JOHNNY GAUDREAU IS THE BEST OF THE 2011 DRAFT CLASS
For fun, I decided to revisit the 2011 Entry Draft and determine where players should've been picked in hindsight. It's clear to me that Gaudreau is the best in his class. Gabriel Landeskog makes a good case, as does Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, but Gaudreau's the more dynamic player of the three. He took longer to develop, which could've hurt his draft value, but there's no reason he shouldn't have at least been selected in the first round. The Flames plucked a gem.
3. PLETHORA OF SLUMPING STARS AN ANOMALY, CAUSED BY VARIOUS COINCIDENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES
It seems like just about every star player is having a down year, and you might be quick to point to that as proof that the NHL really does have a scoring problem. But if you look closer at each player's situation, you can see the reasons behind their respective slumps.
The Penguins were struggling as a team, which has brought everyone's numbers down -- including Sidney Crosby and Phil Kessel. John Tavares has tried to do too much at times and hasn't been himself, which is why his numbers are down. Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry have had trouble because the Ducks are struggling. Steven Stamkos is weighed down by his contract situation, whether he'll admit that or not.
There's no league-wide pandemic, no goal shortage. Players struggle all the time and for a multitude of reasons. This year, it happens to be the case for several stars.
4. WHY ROOKIE GOALIES OFTEN START OFF WELL, BUT CAN'T KEEP IT UP
How many times have we seen a young goalie come into the NHL red-hot over the past few years? John Gibson, Connor Hellebuyck, Andrew Hammond, Michael Hutchinson, Garret Sparks, Mike Condon. The Maple Leafs seem to have a new one every other week.
So, why do they start off so hot and then suddenly turn freezing cold? Two words: Scouting Report.
Until shooters know the book on a goalie, it's hard for them to pick their targets. You know you have a good NHL netminder when he's played long enough for opponents to gain a better understanding of his tendencies and has remained effective. When this doesn't happen, it doesn't necessarily mean he's not cut out to be an NHL goaltender; it means he might not be ready to handle that role just yet. It could also mean he'll never be able to, but that's not the only possible outcome.
5. WE'RE NOT TALKING ENOUGH ABOUT RASMUS RISTOLAINEN
I know the tendency these days is to just pick whichever defenseman amasses the most points, and though Ristolainen doesn't have that under his belt, he does have 24 points this season. He's also been exceptionally sound away from the puck, and has shown he can be physical as well. He's on my Norris ballot right now (just in case anyone wants my vote).
Follow Daniel Friedman on Twitter @bardownhowitzer
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But the man in question isn’t, in fact, Joey MacDonald. This netminder, though 24 years of age, was never drafted, and is in only his first season at the American Hockey League level. While questions about Montreal’s more hyped goaltending prospect Zach Fucale have arisen with his ballooning goals against average and save percentage this season, Mike Condon has quickly thrown his name into the mix if the Canadiens should ever need reinforcements at the position.
(Photo credit: Brandon Taylor / Hamilton Bulldogs Hockey Club)
Condon, a native of Needham, Massachusetts, went undrafted despite posting strong numbers in two seasons with Belmont Hill High of the USHL. His career continued at Princeton University, where his statistics improved every season, but again he received little attention, due largely to playing only 29 games total through his first three seasons with the Tigers. Finally given the starter role in his senior year, Condon’s sparkling .923 save percentage and 2.48 goals against average earned him tryouts with the ECHL’s Ontario Reign and AHL’s Houston Aeros.
But when it came time to signing his full-time deal, the goalie opted for the two-year entry-level contract tendered by the Montreal Canadiens. A peculiar decision perhaps when you consider it meant slotting behind all of Carey Price, Peter Budaj, Dustin Tokarski, and arguably Robert Mayer in the organization’s depth chart, but as Condon told The Trentonian last season, it served as a motivator for him, forcing him to work harder knowing he would constantly be in competition for playing time..
The crowd in front of him meant he spent his first pro season with the ECHL’s Wheeling Nailers, finishing among the league’s leaders with a .931 save percentage and 2.18 GAA in the regular season, continuing his success into the playoffs with a .926 save percentage and 2.50 GAA on a 10-game drive. With nothing left to prove at that level, the Canadiens made room for Condon in the AHL by first terminating Robert Mayer’s contract, and then opting to keep Dustin Tokarski in Montreal by trading Peter Budaj.
This new challenge, however, also meant Condon would once again have to earn every start, as he was penciled in as a clear second fiddle to veteran Joey MacDonald on the Hamilton Bulldogs’ 2014-15 roster.
“Whenever you move up a level, the shots are that much quicker. The margin for error is that much smaller. You can be exposed a lot easier. It’s definitely a step up [from the ECHL],” summarized the keeper during a post-game scrum in Hamilton, conscious of the improvements needed in his own game. “I love playing with Joey Mac; he’s a great partner. And he has a lot of experience that I can learn from.”
Truthfully, both netminders had big shoes to fill as Tokarski’s graduation left the ‘Dogs without their most valuable player from the year prior. But MacDonald, with his 46 games of NHL experience over the past three years, should have been more than capable. Should turned out to be the operative word, as though he wasn’t entirely to blame, a roster stacked with talent up front and plenty of depth on defense got out to a 4-7-2 start to the season.
While it’s not uncommon for a coach to split his goaltenders in a back-to-back situation, MacDonald was outduelled by rookie St. John’s starter Connor Hellebuyck, and so Sylvain Lefebvre turned to Condon to tend goal in the rematch. The move paid off, as the American registered is second win of the year, doing enough to outlast another strong effort from Hellebuyck, and getting Hamilton back to within two games of the .500 mark.
Condon is a fundamentally strong first save goaltender. At 6’2” and just shy of 200 lbs, he has the size that teams are increasingly seeking in netminders, but his biggest strength is down low with lightning quick reflexes in his legs making kick pad saves his typical weapon of choice. At the other end of the spectrum, rebound control is the area he most needs to improve upon. He has an uncanny ability to have deflected pucks land near him, but he still struggles to find them thereafter, forced to track and smother them rather than absorb the initial attempts.
If trends continue as they have, it’ll be interesting to see how Lefebvre manages his netminders the rest of this season. The win against the Ice Caps led to Condon getting consecutive starts for the second time this season, and though he was a part of Hamilton blowing a 4-1 lead, he came up big late to force overtime, and ended up recording a second straight win.
It’s not that MacDonald has been terrible, but he has failed to make the big save with any kind of frequency, and has been guilty of momentum-shifting softies in some instances as well. We’ve already seen somewhat of an balancing of playing time between the two, but Hamilton’s bench boss is typically hesitant to anoint a true starter, as evidenced last year when Tokarski should’ve been the obvious #1 over Mayer, but which wasn’t always the case in the coach’s rotation. Based on their play so far, Condon has earned the opportunity to get into more game action than his counterpart, but it may take more convincing for the staff to supplant an established veteran with a rookie.
The Canadiens will also have a decision to make a year from now, as Fucale will begin his professional career, and the ideal would be to have an established veteran in the AHL to mentor him. Will Condon with his one year in the league be a better choice because of his NHL upside as a possible future back-up? Or will he leave the organization for somewhere with a clearer path to the big league?
“Every year is an opportunity to show yourself. Whether it’s practice every day at the rink, every game… I try not to think about that stuff too much. You can go crazy,” the goalie said of his aspirations for this year and beyond. “One day at a time, and I’m just happy to be here.” And if he can carry on at his current level of play, his teammates and coaches will be very happy he’s here as well.
Follow Dan on Twitter @DanKramerHabs
]]>The Hamilton Bulldogs could’ve easily been coming into the 2014-15 seasons with a roster very similar to that which finished the 2013-14 campaign. Despite two seasons spent toiling in the AHL’s Western Conference basement, coach Sylvain Lefebvre was confident he’d be returning, and with seemingly few roster spots available in Montreal, most of the organization’s prospects were likely to return as well.
Louis Leblanc couldn’t have yet another stagnant year, right? And Patrick Holland would return to the form with which he completed his rookie season, rather than the slump that prevailed throughout his sophomore year. Mike Blunden and Gabriel Dumont seemed natural fits to assume team leadership, while Dustin Tokarski was going to be returned from the Canadiens due to the term remaining on Peter Budaj’s contract. Patch the line-up with some free agents who were scorers at other levels and – if they’re lucky – would be able to reproduce even 50% of that success as professionals. Sprinkle in a few newly graduating junior standouts, rinse, and repeat, for another season of praying that your whole line-up consistently plays up to its full potential for even a shot at returning to the post-season. Why would we expect anything different when that’s been the situation for the past two years? Was it fair to begin asking whether Marc Bergevin and his staff cared about having a winning program for the purpose of prospect development?
But then, things did change. The ‘Dogs cut ties with their under-producing veteran core in Blunden and Martin St. Pierre, replacing them with fresh blood in T.J. Hensick and Jake Dowell. Whereas in past the club might supplement a pair of veterans with uncertain gambles, training camp brought a couple of presents to Bulldog fans in the NHL-experienced Drayson Bowman and Eric Tangradi to significantly upgrade the 2013-14 forward group. And perhaps most unexpected of all, Magnus Nygren seems to have matured over the past few months, claiming he was misquoted in alleged slanderous statements about the city of Hamilton, stating his willingness to stick it out with the Steeltown troop this time around until he can prove that he’s NHL-worthy.
All this to say there is plenty to be excited about for the coming year. The ‘Dogs will enter the season with more experience, skill, and depth than they’ve had at any time since their last Calder Cup championship.
To give you an idea of what to look out for, here’s how the revamped roster (projected lines / depth chart only) looks a few days before the season opens. Over the course of the season, I’ll be updating the performances and progress of each of these players.
Sven Andrighetto – T.J. Hensick – Eric Tangradi
The Bulldogs desperately needed some size in their top six, which meant the Holland-for-Tangradi swap was just what the doctor ordered. 25-year old Tangradi’s 6’4” frame will help to create space for the 5’9” Andrighetto and 5’10” Hensick, while the two skilled forwards should easily enable the former Penguin and Jet to set AHL career highs in goals and points. The challenge for Tangradi will be to go to the net with consistency , while Andrighetto should be the trio’s primary puck carrier. The line’s elder statesman at 28, Hensick’s speed should help him play a puck retrieval role and provide a nice compliment to Andrighetto’s shiftiness. While it should be expected that Andrighetto spend some time in Montreal this season as one of the primary call-up options for any top 6 forward vacancies, if this unit stays together, it has all the makings of a legitimate AHL first line, the kind Hamilton hasn’t seen since the days of Aaron Palushaj and Matt D’Agostini.
Charles Hudon – Jacob De La Rose – Christian Thomas
The next group features two pro rookies, though De La Rose is only a rookie on North American ice. The 19-year old Swede has played against men in the Allsvenskan (tier 2) and the SHL (first tier) leagues the last three seasons, and seemed like he would’ve made his NHL debut in Montreal’s season opener had Lars Eller not recuperated from a minor injury in time. His maturity makes him the defensively responsible counterpart to his threatening wingers, while also bringing size and physicality to balance out his smaller teammates. Hudon, the other rookie, should be expected to produce less than his 76-point final junior season, but he has all the makings of a successful pro player, with a high compete level and on-ice awareness… provided he can stay healthy. Thomas, meanwhile, will be on a mission to rebound from an underwhelming second AHL season, and is coming off a great camp which turned heads in Montreal. He’ll be counted on as his unit’s sniper, with Hudon a possible set-up man. All three of these players are candidates to be early call-ups to the Habs if they get off to good starts.
Gabriel Dumont – Jake Dowell – Drayson Bowman
If this trio of veterans is united, I wouldn’t hesitate to call it the AHL’s best third line, though in reality based on this projected line-up, all of the top nine would likely get about even billing. All three should play key leadership roles on the team, with Dowell and Bowman each boasting over 100 NHL games on their resumes. Dumont, meanwhile, is the longest-serving Bulldog, entering his fifth full season with the club, while remaining a strong option for a call-up if Montreal needs to reinforce its fourth line. As a group, this reads as a pretty typical third line, likely to be matched up against the opposition’s most dangerous players. Dowell and Dumont excel at a typical checking forward game, while Bowman’s speed and tenacity make him a pest on the forecheck. This isn’t your typical shutdown group, however, as each of the three is also very capable of producing 30+ points, a feat accomplished by only 4 ‘Dog forwards last season.
Nick Sorkin – Maxime Macenauer – Daniel Carr
Another significant change in Hamilton’s roster for the coming year is the amount of depth to the team’s name. These three are perhaps the odds-on favourites to enable coach Lefebvre to roll four lines, but the team could also substitute in more toughness in a pinch by dressing Connor Crisp, Jack Nevins, and Stefan Fournier (though it’s possible all three start on the IR, as all missed significant chunks of training camp with injuries). Or, if an offensive player is slumping, Tim Bozon is sure to get a look at some point during the course of the year, even if it’s probably best for him to start out playing bigger minutes with the ECHL’s Wheeling Nailers. Macenauer returns as yet another face with NHL experience, but the revamped roster has him penciled into a 4C hole whereas he often received top minutes a year ago. His versatility to win face-offs and play on either the penalty kill or powerplay should keep him in the line-up more often than not. Sorkin and Carr are two AHL rookies who were darlings of Montreal and Hamilton training camps respectively, and are thus major wildcards that could easily climb the depth charts if their success continues on into the season. Carr is a college standout with impressive hands, while Sorkin is a fluid skater backed by a 6’3” body.
Mac Bennett – Greg Pateryn
The return of Pateryn was great news for the ‘Dogs, as while he may be considered too slow a decision-maker for the speed of the NHL, he has proven he can be a dominant blueline force in the American League. With Nathan Beaulieu in Montreal, he will uncontestably be the team’s #1 guy, and should receive top minutes on the penalty kill while also quarterbacking the powerplay. It wouldn’t be a surprise for the team to try him beside 23-year old pro rookie Bennett, his former defense partner at the University of Michigan, to see if the two can rekindle old chemistry. An average-sized, mobile, two-way blueliner, Bennett is far down Montreal’s depth chart, but his skating ability should balance out the principal weakness in Pateryn’s game well enough to form a formidable pairing.
Davis Drewiske – Darren Dietz
Many thought Drewiske had shown enough to hold on to the #7 spot in Montreal, but the team opted to retain Jarred Tinordi over the 29-year old with 135 games of NHL experience. The long-time L.A. King didn’t quite find his groove after returning from injury last year, but with the notable graduations of two top prospects, he’ll be counted on to start fresh and fill the big hold left on the ‘Dogs’ blueline. Dietz was another surprising stud in Canadiens’ camp for a second year running whose main challenge this season will be to stay healthy, something he struggled to do in his rookie season. If the 21-year old can do so, he would play the role of puck-mover to Drewiske’s defensive game, while both blueliners are capable of playing physically as well. Dietz will likely battle Pateryn to serve as first call-up in case of injuries in Montreal.
Joe Finley – Magnus Nygren
Despite his experience and success in Sweden’s top leagues, Nygren may be penciled in as third-best righty upon his return to the city he once fled. Most critically, his booming slapshot lets him replace Nathan Beaulieu as Pateryn’s triggerman on the powerplay, though if he envisions a call-up at some point, he’ll have to prove his all-around game is far more polished than where it was last year when he was a virtual turn-over machine. If Crisp and Nevins don’t make Hamilton’s everyday line-up, Finley will almost be assured a spot, as most clubs dress at least one enforcer on a nightly basis and he’ll be needed for protection. The 6’8” behemoth has suited up for 21 NHL games, though that’s entirely due to his pugilistic tendencies rather than his on-ice contributions. When not facing the Colton Orr and Frazer McLaren bolstered Toronto Marlies, he can easily be swapped out for a Morgan Ellis, Dalton Thrower (likely to start in the ECHL once healthy, as he’ll need to be playing), or Bobby Shea.
Joey MacDonald
Mike Condon
Franky Palazzese
The Canadiens were well prepared for the eventuality that Dustin Tokarski would remain in Montreal all summer long, as they added a high quality AHL starter in 34-year old MacDonald early on in free agency. MacDonald has played 32 games for the Calgary Flames over the past two seasons, and even posted a .912 save percentage and 2.16 GAA in 14 games for the Detroit Red Wings back in 2011-12. Challenging the veteran for playing time will be 24-year old Condon, coming off a pro rookie season in which he was one of the ECHL’s top netminders. He proved all he could at that level, and is ready to take on a new challenge, even if MacDonald should start roughly two out of every three games. If MacDonald isn’t an upgrade on Tokarski, Condon should provide greater consistency to what Robert Mayer delivered last year. Palazzese, meanwhile, is a recent Bulldog signee for depth at this position, expected to begin his pro career with the Wheeling Nailers after an OHL career split between the Kingston Frontenacs, Kitchener Rangers, and Sudbury Wolves.
Without a doubt, the Bulldogs will benefit from a greatly improved roster in 2014-15, and will be well-equipped to supply the Canadiens with suitable call-ups in the case of injuries or transactions. The season gets underway for Hamilton this Saturday, October 11th, in Rochester, before returning to First Ontario Centre for their home opener against the Toronto Marlies on October 17th.
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