Mitchell Hoelscher – McKeen's Hockey

New Jersey Devils Prospect System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 18:07:25 +0000

Prior to the 2016-17 season, Hockey Prospectus ranked the New Jersey system 16^th overall, basically middle of the pack. It was a system led by the team’s three most recent first rounders in Michael McLeod (2016), John Quenneville (2014), and Pavel Zacha (2015), respectively. Also in the top ten were a few other recent prospect graduates in Steven Santini, Jesper Bratt, and Miles Wood. There were no deep sleepers who have become New Jersey mainstays, although 20^th ranked Alexander Kerfoot has emerged as a solid player with Colorado after he declined to sign with the Devils once his NCAA eligibility expired.

Regardless of the strength at the time of the New Jersey, the NHL Devils suffered through a horrendous season in 2016-17, finishing 27^th out of 30 teams. There was a silver lining at the edge of that dark cloud though, as they bucked the odds to win the draft lottery, enabling them to take their pick of what was, in all honesty, a below average draft class.

New Jersey didn’t complain, though, using the top pick on Nico Hischier, an electrifying talent from Switzerland who had been playing in the QMJHL with Halifax. Not only was Hischier immediately the best player in the revitalized New Jersey system, but we had graded him out as the number two prospect in all of hockey in last year’s McKeen Annual guidebook.

The Devils did not rest after selecting Hischier, though. Far from it. They made 11 total selections in the 2017 draft, and we placed two additional picks, second rounder Jesper Boqvist, and fourth rounder Nikita Popugaev, in our top 250 list, at 120 and 150, respectively. Throw in the surprise signing of Hobey Baker winner Will Butcher, who, like Kerfoot, did not sign with the team that drafted him, and went to New Jersey instead. In a bit of irony, Butcher was a Colorado pick signing in New Jersey while Kerfoot was a Devils pick who signed with the Avalanche. An unofficial trade if you will. Four other 2017 draft picks were also listed in the New Jersey top 20.

With such a broad infusion of talent, it should come as no surprise that the New Jersey system shot up the organizational rankings from 16 to six.

One year later and the New Jersey system has fallen back down the other side of the rainbow, coming in 20^th at this time. How did they fall so soon, so quick, you might ask?

Some of it is for good reasons. The Devils rebounded as a team to return to the NHL postseason Hischier was a key driver of that success, playing in all 82 games, finishing seventh in the Calder Trophy race. The aforementioned Will Butcher, as well as Jesper Bratt, who had inexplicably fallen from a top ten talent to outside of the top 20, were the only other prospects to graduate.

A few other players left the organization through trade or free agency, but they were footnotes at the bottom of the list. What really hurt New Jersey the most, in terms of organizational ranking, was the simple fact that none of the players (Hischier/Butcher excluded) really reached a new level of performance or production, and many others, including the aforementioned Popugaev, top netminder Mackenzie Blackwood, Blake Speers, and others, saw their play fall off and new questions about their ultimate ceilings emerge.

Finally, the Devils went from a dynamic draft class of 11, to a muted class of six, three of whom make this year’s list. It remains to be seen whether the flagging system below the NHL level will continue to follow (or lead) the fortunes of the team at the highest level.

Ty Smith

1 Ty Smith, D (17^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) The number two scorer among all defenders in the WHL in his draft year, Ty Smith, two years removed from being the first overall selection in the WHL Bantam Draft, has undoubtable offensive skills. He is a fantastic skater with high end puck moving ability. He was unable to demonstrate those gifts to the full extent during a few high profile events last year, namely the CHL Top Prospects game, or the WU18, neither of which made his highlight reel, but even when he was off his game, he still was able to showcase other elements of his game that suggest he has top pairing potential. In other words, even on his off days, he still can be a high-impact defender. He tracks back well, showing 200 foot commitment to the game. He lacks size, but plays with strength, whether using his stick to break up plays, or maneuvering opponents into the boards to nullify threats. Not only is his upside rather high, but he projects to reach it sooner than some of the other guys who were taken in the picks before the Devils got him.

2 Michael McLeod, C (12^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 2^nd) The OHL speedster had yet another successful yet mildly disappointing season in the OHL and representing Canada at the WJC and is ready to become fully immersed in the professional game. His skating is just shy of elite, he can flash a high end wrist shot from the circles on in, and earned a reputation for his hustle and work ethic on the PK for Mississauga over the years. He is not known as a playmaker, but has promising vision and passing ability. He has a lot of exciting tools, even though only his straight ahead speed truly exudes a dynamic vibe. He should earn a fair bit of NHL play this season, as his gameplay should be able to find a home up or down the lineup. That said, he would be well served with a few months of AHL action to whet his appetite before settling down in New Jersey. He has strong middle six upside.

3 Jesper Boqvist, C/LW (36^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 4^th) Don’t let his production fool you. Jesper Boqvist has the makings of a very good middle six forward, capable of putting up good numbers at maturity in the NHL. A fantastic skater with very impressive puck skills, the burgeoning playmaker took a big step forward last year, the bulk of which was spent in the SHL with Brynas. He surveys the ice very well, recognizing chance to move forward and advance the attack. He is also noted for a solid defensive zone game. The versatile forward’s biggest drawback is the complete lack of a physical side to his game. In 40 games last year, he accrued only six PIMs. This after eight PIMs in 54 games in his draft year and a whopping 20 minutes in 67 games in 2015-16. He is very high on the Devils’ radar and they are likely hoping to bring him overseas once his contract with Brynas expires after the coming season.

4 John Quenneville, C (30^th overall, 2014. Last Year: 3^rd) When he was selected at the tail end of the 2014 draft, the idea was that he would no longer be on lists like these four years later. Quenneville has a well-rounded game, highlit by a very good shot which is deadly from the hashmarks on in. He may have received more NHL time last year were it not for some injuries which hampered him in the AHL, notably a knee injury shortly after mid-season. He is not exactly old at 22, but he his offensive production has been (on a rate-basis) stable at 0.79 points per game for the past two seasons, and his ability to drive the possession game seemed to carry over to his brief NHL stints in both seasons. He has the game to step into a bottom six role at center or on the wing right now, and if he fails to break through again, it will be a black mark on his future outlook.

5 Joseph Anderson, RW (73^rd overall, 2016. Last Year: 9^th) Wherever Joey Anderson goes, he wins. He is generally not the best player on that winning team, or even the second best player, but he is always a key contributor both in what can be measured and in the intangibles, such as leadership, grit, and hustle. He is a solid skater, with a hard wrist shot that can beat a goalie cleanly from mid-range and closer. He offers a very strong net front presence, with quick hands ready to pounce on loose pucks in the home plate area. He is not overly tall, but has good reach, assisted by plus upper-body strength. He is very intelligent, performing all sorts of easily over-looked, subtle acts to help his team regain, or maintain possession. After helping Minnesota-Duluth to an NCAA championship in the spring, Anderson inked an ELC with the Devils. He will have a good chance to make the club in a bottom six role right away, with New Jersey hoping his winning ways rub off on the rest of the team.

Reilly Walsh

6 Reilly Walsh, D (81^st overall, 2017. Last Year: 10^th) A New Hampshire prep star, Walsh proved that he could hang at a higher level with his intermittent play with the Chicago Steel of the USHL in his draft year. As a true freshman with Harvard, he proved his supporters right as one of the Crimson’s most play driving blueliners. He is small, but somewhat rugged and has the mobility that is sought by all talent evaluators in modern-age defenders. He is also imminently gifted from the offensive perspective. Both his point shot and his puck handling skills are high end. Unlike many defenders of his ilk, he is also competent and responsible in his own end. He is still a few years from being ready for the AHL, much less than NHL, but he looks for all the world like a top half of the roster blueliner.

7 Aarne Talvitie, C (160^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 11^th) Still under the radar as he spent both his draft and post draft years in Finland’s junior ranks, Talvitie should be commended for finishing third in scoring in the Jr. A SM-liiga, winning the league’s MVP award in the process. The reason he has not graduated to Finnish senior is not due to lack of aptitude, but to maintain his NCAA eligibility. Lack Henrik Borgstrom, Talvitie is crossing the pond to go to college, in this case, to play for Penn State. He is a strong skater with finishing skills and impressive hockey IQ. He lacks size, but plays tough enough to survive. As the Nittany Lions have lost a few key forwards to graduation, Talvitie should receive an early opportunity to shine in his first taste of North American hockey.

8 Colby Sissons, D (UDFA: Oct. 3, 2016. Last Year: not ranked) Overlooked in his draft year as a moderately productive second pairing defender with a poor Swift Current team in the WHL, Sissons nonetheless impressed the Devils so much in rookie camp that the team couldn’t get rid of him, finally signing him to an ELC as the season was getting underway. Two years later, after a stellar age 20 season helping to take the Broncos to a WHL title, the word has gotten around on Sissons. While not the greatest skater, he moves the puck with purpose and precision. He can walk the line like a pro on the power play, finding an open teammate down low, or picking up a seam to step through to fire a low slapshot on net. He has a mature all-around game from the back and plays a somehow understated, but very forceful, physical game. Next stop is the AHL and he should be in the consideration set as an injury replacement as soon as this year.

9 Mackenzie Blackwood, G (42^nd overall, 2015. Last Year: 7^th) As a 16 year old with the OHL’s Barrie Colts, Blackwood seemed like the ideal goalie prospect, checking all of the boxes in the scouts’ lists. He was massive, coupled with solid athleticism, reasonably refined technique. He even did a good job of controlling second chances and could push the puck up the ice ably. Since those heady early days, Blackwood has been miss as much as hit. His OHL work never really improved from his first year. His first two years as a professional have been disconcerting, losing playing time to the likes of Kenny Appleby and Scott Wedgewood and even finding himself down in the ECHL for stretches last year. It is too early to give up on a 21 year old who can still flash the game of a possible starter in the NHL, but it is past time for Blackwood to produce where it counts and ensure that the Devils still see the future in him.

Xavier Bernard

10 Xavier Bernard, D (110^th overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) For a system that has largely eschewed scouting for size, Bernard is one of the few prospects of significance in the organization that bucks that trend. Listed at 6-3” and over 200 lbs, he is actually more of a mobile puck mover with smarts and skills than a bruiser. His offensive game took a big step up in his draft year, jumping from six to 35 points with Drummondville. There are still questions about his ultimate offensive upside, allowing him to drop to the fourth round in the draft, but he plays an efficient game on both sides of the puck. He has a big point shot, but is more effective as a passer from the blueline. Bernard’s development has a few possible routes available, but the majority of them point to a solid professional career.

11 Mikhail Maltsev, LW (102^nd overall, 2016. Last Year: not ranked) Without doubt, the biggest riser in the New Jersey over the 2017-18 season. From a production standpoint, Maltsev’s year was not much different from years’ past. He seemed to have finally graduated from the Russian junior league and spent the bulk of his domestic season split between the KHL and the VHL, with very promising VHL numbers, with the best points per game mark of any under 20 player to have played even 10 games at the level. His KHL and international production were more muted, but he did turn a number of heads at the WJAC. He has a big frame, is usable on both special teams units, playing a mature and intelligent game. His first few steps are strong and he has burgeoning puck skills to go along with it. He will be in Russia again this year, but may be ready, at least in theory to come to North America in the near future.

12 Fabian Zetterlund, RW/C (63^rd overall, 2017. Last Year: 16^th) If the Devils can be said to have a type in the draft, it would look a lot like Fabian Zetterlund. That is to say a winger with a bit of skill and the type of grittiness to allow him to play bigger than his listed measurements. A solid offensive force in the Swedish junior ranks when he was drafted, the young forward spent this past season mostly playing against men. As is often the case with teenagers in the SHL and Allsvenskan, his production was nothing to write home about wit only 12 points in 43 combined games between the two levels. When he plays against his age-based peers, such as in the WJC, he can demonstrate a promising offensive package, including a shot and puck skills that both project out as above average attributes. Add in a feisty game in the neutral zone and comfort playing a physical game, and he could work his way up to a middle six role down the road.

13 Blake Speers, RW (67^th overall, 2015. Last Year: 6^th) Blake Speers has been somewhat of a frustrating prospect to track, as he has all of the tools you want to see. He is a very good skater, who gets to a fine top speed, with quick acceleration. He can flash a hard wrist shot that allowed to score a respectable 12 goals as an AHL rookie last year after he was a goal-scoring threat throughout his OHL career. He is not especially big, but is built solid. On the down side, while it is still early in his career and he can certainly change our minds going forward, he struggled with reads and decision making, preventing him from getting full bang for the buck on his tools. He has a fine motor and hustles, showing a promising work ethic, but the onus is on him, like many others in this system, to take his game to the next level.

14 Michael Kapla, D (UDFA: Mar 28, 2017. Last Year: 18^th) Turning 24 before the start of the coming season, Kapla, now only one year into his professional career, plays a mature, yet limited game from the blueline. The limitations are largely the result of not having a game heavy on skill. He is not slow, but nor is he exceptionally mobile. He can man the point at the AHL level, but lacks the vision or howitzer to project to that role in the NHL. He is somewhat broad around the shoulders, but he does not play a physical game. If the former UMass-Lowell captain will make more of an NHL impact than the five game bonus trial he received after signing as a free agent, it will be on the strength of his versatility, in the sense that he can be used in any situation, and his poise with the puck. He will not thrill the crowd, but he will also not be the cause of their displeasure either.

15 Jeremy Davies, D (192^nd overall, 2016. Last Year: not ranked) Drafted as a seventh round flyer in his second year of eligibility after putting up some good numbers for a moribund Bloomington team in the USHL, Davies is proving himself to be a scouting find after two strong to very strong seasons manning the point for NCAA offensive powerhouse Northeastern. He finished second in blueline scoring as a freshman and led all NE defensemen in points by a wide margin as a sophomore. He is not a very toolsy player, which forces us to be cautious in projecting his future, but he handles the puck quite well and demonstrates the hockey smarts needed on the back end. He even plays strong despite being undersized. Another season like the last may force the Devils to try to pry him away from school before graduation.

Marian Studenic

16 Marian Studenic, RW (143^rd overall, 2017. Last Year: 15^th) While he has never broken out as an offensive force, notably being shut out for two straight years in the WJC for his native Slovakia, the former fifth round pick still demonstrates a well-rounded game that suggests a potential bottom six future awaits. He is a strong skater, with good size, if not a physical game. He can play up and down the lineup thanks to his hustle and has a lot of experience as a penalty killer. The reason for his moderate offensive impact is largely down to a lack of creativity or vision with the puck. He has a quick shot which he can hesitate with the release to add an element of trickery, but he is largely a two way, North-South player.

17 Brandon Gignac, C (80^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 14^th) Being limited to only 21 games, in which he put up only three points, clearly qualifies Gignac’s rookie pro season as a severe disappointment. Injuries can do that. Considering the year as a practical write-off, we will instead use this space to serve as a reminder of why the Devils saw fit to use a third round pick on him two years ago. He is small, undersized and lacking in functional strength. Of course those factors did not convince New Jersey to draft him that high, but we can state with confidence that they kept him from going higher. What Gignac still can do, and why the Devils are still believers is primarily his incredible top gear. He has just enough puck skills to be a real threat on a breakaway. He also shows good vision and has a history of creating respectable secondary offense. Now let’s see what he can do with a full, healthy season in the AHL.

18 Cam Johnson, G (UDFA: Mar. 24 2018. Last Year: IE) Unheralded to a large extent in his first draft season, playing for Little Caeser’s U18, Johnson earned his way a role in the USH over the next two seasons as a walk-on. Good enough to graduate to a role with a big time collegiate program in North Dakota, he went from a barely used freshman (two games) to a surprise starter as a sophomore, leading his team to an NCAA championship. A bit undersized by modern standards, Johnson is fairly athletic and calm under duress. He is confident with the puck, although his technique is raw – particularly his footwork - and he is prone to surrendering juicy rebounds. He could never re-capture the success of his sophomore season, but his body of work was enough to convince New Jersey to offer him a contract and replace for free agent signing Kenny Appleby on the depth chart.

19 Mitchell Hoelscher, C (172^nd overall, 2018. Last Year: IE) Another player on this list with underwhelming numbers in the OHL, Hoelscher at least can fall back on the reasoning that he joined the league relatively late, getting in only six games with the Ottawa 67s before his draft year began. Joining a mediocre team in transition did not help his numbers play up either. To his credit, he has a fine enough collection of tools to suggest that there is more in his near future, even though he was not a top scorer in his pre-OHL days either. He gets up to a fine top speed. He plays a fine physical game despite lacking in size or stature. He also plays with maturity, suggestive of comfort playing down the lineup as needed.

20 Yegor Zaitsev, D (205^th overall, 2017. Last Year: not ranked) If these grades only focused on skills, Zaitsev may not have made the cut. His point shot is sub-par and his mobility and ability to move the puck are average at best. He is small and lacks much of a physical presence, as well. But we talk about him because he has legitimate shut down defender qualities. He is very good positionally in his own zone, uses his stick very well to cut into gaps, even if he does not close them down with the body. He does a smart job of moving rushers to the outside and removing danger. If you needed any proof of his ability to play above his tools, consider that Russian legacy team Dynamo Moscow had him playing in the KHL in his age 18 season.

2018 NHL Draft Review: Metropolitan Division

Ryan Wagman — Wed, 11 Jul 2018 17:09:35 +0000

The draft is over and 217 young players are newly affiliated with 31 different NHL organizations. Outside of three to six of those players, who could jump right into NHL lineups in the fall, we will not know whether the vast majority of those players are draft successes for two, three, four, or five years.

The lack of clear foresight aside, we should still be able to judge draft classes at least in terms of expected value. In some cases, we can look at strategy as well, although the way the board shakes out based on the picks that came before, we can rarely truly discern what a club was trying to do, but only what they were able to do.

I had hoped that we would be able to provide an average Overall Future Projection of the various draft classes, but there are a few picks from the high school ranks, the NAHL and a few European junior leagues for whom we lack enough information to give a full grade, so we will focus on where we had players ranked as we assess the draft haul of each team, as we run division-by-division through the NHL.

Here is the Metropolitan Division

Carolina Hurricanes
1 (2) Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Barrie (OHL) - ranked 2nd
2 (42) Jack Drury, C, Waterloo (USHL) - ranked 66th
4 (96) Luke Henman, C, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL) - ranked 156th
4 (104) Lenni Killinen, RW, Blues U20 (Jr. A SM-Liiga) - ranked 137th
6 (166) Jesper Sellgren, D, Modo (Allsvenskan) - ranked 207th
7 (197) Jacob Kucharski, G, Des Moines (USHL) - not ranked

For starters, a heartfelt congratulations are in order to the Carolina Hurricanes, their employees and their fans, as they did not overthink the #2 selection in the draft and walked away with the best forward money couldn’t buy in Andrei Svechnikov. In his first year in North America, he scored 1.2 points per game for Muskegon of the USHL in his age 16-17 season. After that, he moved up to the OHL and put up over 1.6 points per game for the Barrie Colts, despite missing time to the WJC and assorted injuries and suspensions. I am not saying we can expect two points per game as a rookie next season for the Hurricanes, but I am saying that he will be a rookie next season for the Hurricanes, and 20 goals is my minimal projection. He can play at both ends, but I expect him to be somewhat sheltered as a rookie. He is going to be very good for a long time. Moving on to the rest of the draft class.

After Svechnikov, the Hurricanes selected three more forwards, one blueliner and a goalie. Considering that the strength of the organization is on the blueline and most of their defenders are still rather young, that was a good strategy to take. Unfortunately, while I can say good things about the rest of the players that were drafted by Carolina, I cannot say that they selected the best player on the board at any other slot. Jack Drury is a good player with deep NHL bloodlines. He does a lot of things well. The points he put up for Waterloo were spectacular. On the other hand, way too many of those points were second assists and/or power play points. He is generally not the engine that makes the offense run. Just looking at the USHL, I would have taken either Blake McLaughlin or Sampo Ranta at that spot.

The Hurricanes did not have a third round pick, but selected twice in the fourth. The first pick there was used on Luke Henman, an athletic center from Blainville-Boisbriand in the QMJHL. He is an undersized playmaker, who performed well enough as a rookie in the Q this year and then upped his stock with a very good showing at multiple stations at the Draft Combine. Staying just with forwards from the Q, I would have preferred Dmitri Zavgorodny or Anderson MacDonald. But for those last two picks, it seems like the Hurricanes, with a management team that has not yet spent much time together, heavily weighted combine performance. With their second fourth rounder, the Canes finally took a non-combine player, grabbing Lenni Killinen from their usual stomping grounds in Finland. An explosive skater with promising offensive tools, Killinen put up respectable point totals in the Finnish junior ranks, but we would have preferred one of Ville Petman, Arttu Nevasaari, or Kristian Tanus, among young Finnish forwards.

Jesper Sellgren makes for a nice story as their sixth round pick. In his third year of eligibility, he was named to the Swedish team for the WJC. He is a very good skater and exhibits very good hockey sense, but his ceiling is limited. A reasonable pick in the sixth round, no doubt, but among Swedish netminders, fellow ’98 birthdate Henrik Malmstrom, would have been our pick there. Finally, in the seventh round, the Hurricanes added another netminder to their stable. Jake Kucharski has a lot of tools and can look very good at times, such as his performance in the USHL Top Prospects Game. But he could not keep the job in Des Moines, which brought in Roman Durny from Slovakia after the WJC. Kucharski scarcely played from there on out. This was a down year for netminder in the USHL, but I would have been inclined to gamble on one of Keegan Karki or Vincent Purpura instead. Your mileage may vary. In total, I cannot truly fault the Hurricanes for their draft picks. I don’t love it, but they did under circumstances (new management group) that do not often allow for exemplary draft planning.

OFP - 53

Columbus Blue Jackets
1 (18) Liam Foudy, C, London (OHL) - ranked 25th
2 (49) Kirill Marchenko, LW, Mamonty Yugry (MHL) - ranked 34th
3 (80) Marcus Kallberg, RW/LW, Leksands IF J20 (SuperElit) - unranked
6 (159) Tim Berni, D, GC Kusnacht Lions (NLB) - unranked
6 (173) Veini Vehvilainen, G, Karpat (Liiga) - unranked
7 (204) Trey Fix-Wolansky, RW, Edmonton (OHL) - ranked Honorable Mention

As a testament to the Blue Jackets history of going away from the so-called “consensus”, the example always brought up is when they selected Pierre-Luc Dubois third overall in 2016 instead of Jesse Puljujarvi, who was ranked third by literally everyone else. It is still early, but that pick looks pretty good so far for GM Jarmo Kekalainen. That, and the relative success of other recent unheralded prospect acquisitions by Columbus such as Markus Nutivaara (7^th round, 2015) or Markus Hannikainen (UDFA, 2015), suggest that we reserve judgement after the Jackets only selected two players we had ranked in our top 217, and only one more who made our top 300. The third round pick, Marcus Karlberg, was the biggest head scratcher of the lot. He put up great numbers in the SuperElit, but he is tiny, and outside of his hockey IQ, lacks tools that project to above average.

Their first sixth rounder, Tim Berni, is an accomplished young defender from Switzerland, who did not look completely overwhelmed at the last WJC, but similarly did not show much to suggest a surefire NHL upside is within. There is some promise there, but I would want to see him do something at the top flight in Switzerland. All of his success thus far has come in the junior ranks, or in the second tier. The other sixth rounder, a rare Finnish pick by Kekalainen, is someone I can get on board with. To be completely honest, we have had Vehvilainen ranked in previous drafts, but left him out this year, his fourth of draft eligibility. Mostly, we figured if his amazing run at the WJC in 2017 was not enough to get him noticed, what else could he do. He is borderline undersized by modern netminding standards, but he dominated in the top men’s league in Finland and then led Karpat to the Liiga championship while still mourning the death of his father. He was also named the top goaltender in Liiga. Not every goalie with that hardware makes it in the NHL, but some (Tim Thomas, Kari Lehtonen, Antti Raanta, Miikka Kiprusoff, etc.) do. Trey Fix-Wolansky, the Columbus draftee we listed as an honorable mention selection, does not look like a good player, as he is short and stocky, and he is not the greatest skater, but he is very strong on the puck and has finished first or second in scoring for the woeful Edmonton Oil Kings in each of the last two seasons. So those are the picks that are off our boards. Despite not having the full-throated backing of the McKeens scouting staff, we can see good reasons for liking each of them (OK, maybe not Karlberg).

Thankfully, we really like their first two picks. Liam Foudy was a classic late riser. He began the season in a bottom six role with the London Knights, but when the perennial powerhouse decided that this was not going to be their year, a few veterans were traded away and Foudy ascended way up the depth chart. And he excelled. Over the second half of the season, he was one of the more electric players in the OHL, and backed it up with strong performances in the CHL Top Prospects Game as well as at the WU18s. He also has a strong case to be proclaimed the best athlete in the draft class. Kirill Marchenko was someone who drew mixed reviews from our Russian-based scouts, but raised his play for international events. He has a great skill set and fantastic size and could project to nearly any role down the road. The Blue Jackets are certainly an enigmatic team when it comes to scouting, but they are correct more than their fair share of the time. I wouldn’t put it past them to surprise again.

OFP – 52.25

New Jersey Devils
1 (17) Ty Smith, D, Spokane (WHL) - ranked 15th
4 (110) Xavier Bernard, D, Drummondville (QMJHL) - ranked 71st
5 (136) Akira Schmid, G, Langnau U20 (Elite Jr. A) - ranked Honorable Mention
5 (151) Yegor Sharangovich, C, Dynamo Minsk (KHL) - ranked Honorable Mention
6 (172) Mitchell Hoelscher, C, Ottawa (OHL) - ranked 134th
7 (203) Eetu Pakkila, LW, Karpat U20 (Jr. A SM-liiga) - unranked

One year after injecting a boat load of talent into the organization thanks not only to owning the number one pick in the draft, but making 11 total selections, this year, the Devils exhibited a magnificent turnaround and ended up trading away both their second and third round picks, as part of packages for Michael Grabner, and Sami Vatanen. Considering that the team still has the young core drafted in 2017 as well as a surprise playoff berth in their recent past, it’s a pretty good trade off. And even picking 17^th this year, in a deep draft for defenders, the Devils were able to add another high end talent to their system, a player who many had projected to be taken in the top ten. Ty Smith, while small, is an excellent puck mover and plays an advanced positional game in his own end. In league play, he has been very effective at winning the puck back for his team, although he has had his bumps in the CHL Top Prospects Game as well as at the WU18s. Still, between his skating, puck skills, and high, high hockey IQ, there is potential for a future first pairing defender.

When they finally selected a second player, 93 picks later, the Devils were fortunate to get late Xavier Bernard, a player who looks much different than Smith, but has similar attributes. He is a smooth skater, can make the basic passes, and exhibits promising hockey IQ. On the other hand, Bernard is not a natural puck mover, but has much more impressive size and knows how to utilize it. New Jersey went to Europe with both of their fifth round picks, both times taking players from smaller hockey nations who have plenty of international experience. Akira Schmid started his draft off with a bang, thanks to a stellar showing at the Ivan Hlinka tournament. He was then one of the top goalies in the Swiss junior ranks, but struggled at the WU18s to end the year. He has enough size and athleticism to be a decent gamble. Yegor Sharangovich was in his third year of eligibility and has three WJCs (one in the second tier) under his belt for his native Belarus. He played a depth role for the Dynamo Minsk KHL team this year, but has flashed impressive goal scoring ability in the past.

Sixth rounder Mitchell Hoelscher is slight, but wiry strong. His production with the Ottawa 67s was not much in his first full season in the OHL, but he is a good skater, and plays an intelligent brand of hockey. He has energy line upside. With their final 2018 selection, the Devils popped Finnish winger Eetu Pakkila, a winger with great feet and a good shot. Despite decent numbers for Karpat’s U20 team, Pakkila slipped under the radar due to rarely being considered for international duty for any age group in Finland. While one could quibble about the upside about their late round selections, with the exception of Hoelscher, the Devils did a nice job of drafting players with a history of production in their local leagues. And without exception, each player has at least one attribute that suggest NHL upside.

OFP – 52.5

New York Islanders
1 (11) Oliver Wahlstrom, RW, USNTDP (USHL) - ranked 5th
1 (12) Noah Dobson, D, Acadie-Bathurst (QMJHL) - ranked 8th
2 (41) Bode Wilde, D, USNTDP (USHL) - ranked 17th
2 (43) Ruslan Iskhakov, RW, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva (MHL) - ranked 68th
3 (72) Jakub Skarek, G, Dukla Jihlava (Czech) - ranked 93rd
4 (103) Jacob Pivonka, C, USNTDP (USHL) - ranked 182nd
5 (134) Blade Jenkins, C, Saginaw (OHL) - ranked 69th
7 (196) Christian Krygier, D, Lincoln (USHL) - unranked

Two years ago, the Islanders drafted Kieffer Bellows from the USNTDP and seem to be pretty happy with their choice. Of course, Lou Lamoriello was not there when that draft went down. He was in Toronto. His Maple Leafs drafted Auston Matthews, another (indirect) USNTDP alum, and a couple of other program graduates in the middle rounds. Prior to his time in Toronto, Lamoriello spent many years in New Jersey and his draft record there is also dotted with players who had come from the program. That history aside, it is still at least somewhat surprising that the Islanders ended up with three players from this year’s stacked USNTDP graduating class. Two of those players, right winger Oliver Wahlstrom and defensemen Bode Wilde, were widely not expected to be available at picks 11 and 41 respectively. Wahlstrom is one of the best natural goal scorers in the draft class. He is a near elite sniper, a fantastic puck player and a very strong skater as well. He can float for some stretches, but his talent suggested he should have gone up to five picks earlier were the other teams not so focused on drafting centers at the top. Wilde elicited some rumors that his stock had fallen before the draft, partially due to a poor showing at the WU18s and partly due to de-committing from Michigan. He is not the most intense defender, but looks downright pretty carrying the puck up the ice. He is a high end skater and puck handler and mostly needs refinements to his game away from the puck to be an impact player.

The third USNTDP player drafted by the Islanders this year, Jacob Pivonka is more of a grinding role player with decent hands, but plays a 200 foot game, and has NHL bloodlines, as father Michal played over 800 games in the NHL. Outside of those three, the Islanders drafted two others with USNTDP ties, although they were not in the program in their draft year. Fifth rounder Blade Jenkins left the program for Saginaw of the OHL prior to this past season. He plays a gritty game and is a gifted skater, although the latter trait does not always show up at game time. He has very good sleeper potential. In the seventh round the Islanders selected Christian Krygier, the more physical of the Krygier twins who spent this season with the Lincoln Stars of the USHL. Krygier has very marginal puck skills, but he skates well and plays hard.

Not every pick made by the Islanders this year was American. In fact, immediately after drafting Wahlstrom, Lamoriello and company returned to their table for a couple of minutes to work the phones (reportedly to trade the pick for immediate NHL help) but then returned to the podium and selected Noah Dobson, another player thought by some to be a potential top five pick and leading the Titan to both QMJHL and Memorial Cup championships, eating up a ton of minutes on the journey. Dobson looks like nothing so much as a future first pairing blueliner, between the wheels, the smarts, and the ability to put that bulk to work. His shot and puck playing ability also grade out as above average. He might be only twelve months from playing in the NHL. Two picks after nabbing Wilde, the Isles made an upside play in drafting pint-sized Russian winger Ruslan Iskhakov, who while not as quick as other players of his stature, has amazing hands and has been hard to catch. He has performed well both in Russian junior league play as well as on the international stage.

Finally, nothing rounds out a diverse draft class like a promising goalie. Along with four forwards and three blueliners, the Islanders selected Jakub Skarek, a highly accomplished netminder from the Czech Republic, in the third round. Although he looked bad at the most recent WJC (his second go round in the high profile tournament), he is very athletic, has prototypical size and reads the play well. He will get to test himself against more advanced competition this year as he leaves his homeland to play for Pelicans in Finland’s top circuit, Liiga. While I would have preferred them drafting the other Krygier with their seventh round pick, this is almost the perfect draft class. Two players ranked in our top ten, another ranked as a first round talent, and three more in our top 100. There are players who will be ready for professional hockey within one or two seasons, and players who will need (and due to where they were drafted from) and will receive three or four years before forcing the Islanders’ hands. Along with Mathew Barzal, Wahlstrom and Dobson should make up a big part of the team’s core for years to come.

OFP – 55

New York Rangers
1 (9) Vitali Kravtsov, RW, Traktor Chelyabinsk (KHL) - ranked 16th
1 (22) K'Andre Miller, D, USNTDP (USHL) - ranked 14th
1 (28) Nils Lundkvist, D, Lulea (SHL) - ranked 37th
2 (39) Olof Lindbom, G, Djurgardens J20 (SuperElit) - ranked 91st
3 (70) Jakob Ragnarsson, D, Almtuna (Allesvenskan) - ranked 152nd
3 (88) Joey Keane, D, Barrie (OHL) - ranked 99th
4 (101) Nico Gross, D, Oshawa (OHL) - ranked 82nd
5 (132) Lauri Pajuniemi, RW, TPS (Liiga) - unranked
6 (163) Simon Kjellberg, D, Rogle J20 (SuperElit) - unranked
7 (216) Riley Hughes, RW, St. Sebastian's School (USHS - MA) - ranked 208th

With three first round picks, including the drafting of my personal favorite player from the 2018 draft class, I want to be able to say nice things about the Rangers’ large draft haul. Unfortunately, I am underwhelmed. Of course, with 10 players taken, they have definitely given their organizational depth, for years an afterthought, a serious injection of talent. Further, considering the imbalance of their draft class, with six blueliners taken among the 10 picks, I know that they did not go for balance, but drafted the top player on their board. Further, with the early success of their two 2017 first rounders (Lias Andersson, and Filip Chytil), both of whom were thought to be reaches at the time, I cannot assume to know more than they do. I can note the six player drafted out of Europe, and how four of those six were already playing in men’s leagues, meaning their lead time to being ready will be shorter than others. That’s definitely a positive. Again though, I wanted to see more upside.

Starting in the first round, they took two Europeans who have already experienced impressive performances in the top leagues in their respective countries. Ninth overall pick Vitali Kravtsov had one of, if not the, best performances ever by a teenager in the KHL playoffs. He earned plus-plus grades for his skating, puck skills and shot. He might be able to come to North America after one more season with Chelyabinsk. If there is a concern here, it is due to having so little international experience, we do not have a great feel for how he would do on the smaller North American ice surface. At pick 22, the Rangers selected my personal favorite in K’Andre Miller. He is a tremendous athlete, has prototype build for a defenseman, is a terrific skater and plays with brawn and skill. If there is a downside, it is how raw he is as a defender, having only converted from forward three seasons ago. He could be a legit number one defender, but will need at least three years in college before he is ready. With the 28^th pick of the first round, the Rangers selected late rising Swedish blueliner Nils Lundkvist. He is undersized, but incredibly skilled with the puck and demonstrates very impressive hockey intelligence. He was excellent in the Swedish junior ranks, but struggled some in roughly half a season in the SHL and underwhelmed at the WU18s. There is also the question of whether he is a good enough skater to mitigate his size issues. All three first rounders could work, but none is without questions.

Similar to their second rounder, Olof Lindbom, the first netminder selected in 2018. He is a good goalie prospect, as far as that class goes, was a world beater at the WU18s, and receives especially high grades for his ability to read the play and his technique, but he is a goalie after all. He is also slightly undersized by modern goaltending standards, listed at only 6-1”. Of their remaining six picks the Rangers selected four defensemen. Jakob Ragnarsson and Simon Kjellberg were both drafted out of Sweden, and Joey Keane and Nico Gross were both selected out of the OHL. Keane is interesting as a second year eligible prospect who took big steps in his second season with the Barrie Colts. He is a very good skater, with a decent all around game. Ragnarsson’s father Marcus played for the Sharks and the Flyers around the turn of the century. He is more of a defense-first defender, who makes a sharp first pass. He has never been tested outside of Sweden’s domestic leagues.

Simon Kjellberg is another bloodlines player, as his father Patric spent time with Montreal, Nashville, and Anaheim. The younger Kjellberg has good size, and plays a muscular game, but his skating is currently very rough. He will need to improve that aspect of his game significantly to have a chance at playing in the NHL. Of the four mid round defenders, I have the most time for Nico Gross, a Swiss national who has already played at two WJCs and three WU18s. He is a solid skater, who plays with poise and energy. While not often an offensive force, he has shown enough flashes there to project for more growth in that side of his game. Of the two late round forwards, Lauri Pajuniemi could surprise. He has high end puck handling ability and held his own in his first year in Liiga. As for seventh rounder Riley Hughes, he is not bad as far as prep products go, but there is a reason why more and more future collegians are electing to play in the USHL instead of staying home. He has never really been tested against high end competition. He is likely to spend next year in the USHL (Sioux Falls has his rights) before attending Northeastern in 2019. I have no doubt but that one or two of the players drafted by the Rangers this year will exceed my expectations, but I would have been happier if I did not have to make this kind of mitigating remark.

OFP – 53.25

Philadelphia Flyers
1 (14) Joel Farabee, LW, USNTDP (USHL) - ranked 12th
1 (19) Jay O'Brien, C, Thayer Academy (USHS-MA) - ranked 48th
2 (50) Adam Ginning, D, Linkoping (SHL) - ranked 42nd
4 (112) Jack St. Ivany, D, Sioux Falls (USHL) - ranked 108th
5 (127) Wyatte Wylie, D, Everett (WHL) - ranked 139th
5 (143) Samuel Ersson, G, Bryan J20 (SuperElit) - ranked Honorable Mention
6 (174) Gavin Hain, C, USNTDP (USHL) - ranked Honorable Mention
7 (205) Marcus Westfalt, C/LW, Brynas IF (SHL) - ranked 162nd

As with the Rangers above, I expected to like the Flyers’ draft class more than I did. Again, this has nothing to do with the players taken. Fine talents, all of them. The Flyers have been strong with USHL prospects over the past few years and dug deep in the top NCAA-feeder league once again, with three selections, plus another who will head to college from the pre ranks. They have also scouted Sweden heavily in recent years and took three more Swedish prospects this year. And continuing the theme of visiting familiar territory, the final Flyers’ pick not yet accounted for came from the same Everett program in the WHL where they would have been comfortable in light of top prospect Carter Hart calling it home. I like the Flyers drafting from areas where they are comfortable that they can project out. I like that the Flyers selected players of different positions, with two centers, two wingers, three defensemen and a goaltender (it wouldn’t be a Flyers draft without at least one goalie). And, as stated above, I like the players. I just see this draft class and the draft slots that the Flyers owned, and do not see many high value picks. Some players drafted roughly where they should have been selected, some taken earlier than I would have advised, and one notably higher than we believed was reasonable.

They kicked things off in fine fashion, with winger Joel Farabee, one of two players they selected out of the USNTDP system. Farabee can play up or down the lineup. He has experience in the middle, but is more natural on the wing. He is a true 200 foot player with skill, grit and heavy on the intangibles. He will need to bulk up at Boston University, but his potential is top six, both special teams and a team leader. Five picks later, Ron Hextall and friends stepped to the podium again and dropped jaws across the hockey world. Jay O’Brien is a confident young man, brash even, and he shows some high end attributes, with a fine shot and slick puck handling skills. He plays tough and he has been well coached, but he has very rarely been tested against other high caliber prospects. He was the big man on campus at Thayer, scoring closing to three points per game than two. But in 12 games of experience in Tier I hockey over the last two years, he had only three points. All draft picks are risky, but high picks out of the high school ranks are riskier than most.

Philadelphia’s first three picks on day two were all blueliners, each with good size. Adam Ginning is the stay-at-home type of the trio. Although he contributed offense at a decent clip for Sweden at the WU18s, his game is about positioning and making the first pass to clear the zone. Low upside, but high floor. After sitting out the third round, the Flyers used their fourth rounder on second year eligible Jack St. Ivany of Sioux Falls in the USHL. He was very young in his first year of eligibility and only one year removed from playing U16 hockey in the Los Angeles area. He took a few big steps forward this year for the Stampede and shows some two-way ability. I’m a fan. The Flyers rounded out their blueline haul with Wyatte Wylie, an alliterative late 99 birthdate player who not only played with Carter Hart in Everett, but is actually from Everett. He is not bursting with skill but plays hard.

Later in the fifth round, Philadelphia drafted the obligatory goalie, picking up Swede Samuel Ersson, who has been overshadowed in his homeland by Olof Lindbom and others, but was an absolute workhorse for Brynas’ U20 team and some of the best numbers in the SuperElit. He is a technically proficient goalie with a good frame. Speaking of overlooked, sixth rounder Gavin Hain was often relegated to the bottom six with the USNTDP, below players like Farabee and others, but he is not without a modicum of hockey skill and is responsible in all three zones. I haven’t seen anything to suggest he has hidden talent, but he is not a bad way to use a sixth round pick. Finally, the Flyers used their seventh rounder on big Swedish winger Marcus Westfalt. His skill set is moderate, but he uses his big frame well to create havoc in front of the net. If Jay O’Brien works out, the Flyers will be laughing for ages. If not, Farabee is safe enough that the draft class will not be a write-off, but will be looked at as a relative disappointment.

OFP – 52.5

Pittsburgh Penguins
2 (53) Calen Addison, D, Lethbridge (WHL) - ranked 30th
2 (58) Filip Hallander, C, Timra (Allsvenskan) - ranked 47th
5 (129) Justin Almeida, C/LW, Moose Jaw (WHL) - ranked 173rd
6 (177) Liam Gorman, C, St. Sebastian's School (USHS - MA) - unranked

Only four picks, but the Penguins made them count. Well, most of them anyway. Actually, they would have had a fifth pick, but traded up into the late second round when they saw value on the board. Despite not picking until 53^rd overall, the Penguins walked away with two players who had reasonable arguments to go in the first round. Their first pick, Lethbridge defender Calen Addison is a modern style blueliner, making up in speed and daring what he lacks in size or the ability to play physically. He needs a lot of work off the puck, but he proved both in the Ivan Hlinka tournament and the WHL postseason that he can step up his production in the spotlight.

The player they gave up two later picks to nab towards the close of the second was Swedish center Filip Hallander, who had a very strong draft year in the Allsvenskan, Sweden’s second highest men’s league. The fact that he was as productive as he was (20 points in 40 games) while dealing with a knee injury that kept him out of the WU18s. He is very physical while still playing clean, and grades out above average as a skater, shooter, and for his hockey intelligence. With Timra now in the top flight SHL, and Hallander presumably healthy, Hallander’s stock could leap forward next year. The Penguins went with production over physical maturity when they finally selected again late in the fifth round, selecting Moose Jaw’s second year eligible center, Justin Almeida. After scoring only 28 points between the Warriors and Prince George in his first year of draft eligibility, he was an afterthought entering the year, but with 43 goals and 98 points for the powerhouse Warriors, he could not be overlooked again. He is a strong skater and gifted with the puck on his stick. Finally, they took Massachusetts prepster Liam Gorman, with their final pick. Gorman was not really on our radar, and in fact was only the number three scorer with St. Sebastian’s, behind fellow draft pick Riley Hughes. He has plus size though, and is likely to spend next season in the USHL. The 2018 draft class will not alter the trajectory of the Penguins’ fortunes, but they should be pleased with the type of quality they came away with.

OFP – 52.25

Washington Capitals
1 (31) Alexander Alexeyev, D, Red Deer (WHL) - ranked 35th
2 (46) Martin Fehervary, D, Oskarshamn (Allsvenskan) - ranked 78th
2 (47) Kody Clark, RW, Ottawa (OHL) - ranked 138th
3 (93) Riley Sutter, RW, Everett (WHL) - ranked 87th
4 (124) Mitchell Gibson, G, Lone Star (NAHL) - unranked
6 (161) Alex Kannok-Leipert, D, Vancouver (WHL) - unranked
7 (217) Eric Florchuk, C, Saskatoon (WHL) - ranked 168th

If there is a team for which the draft is a serious afterthought, it would be the team that is still hungover from the release of winning their first Stanley Cup championship. That is not to imply that the Capitals did not draft some good prospects, but that they would not be focused from the top down on these players at the moment. True to the Washington drafting rulebook, they went heavy on the WHL (four players), avoided the QMJHL and Finland, and took a player from a lower level of hockey (NAHL goalie Mitchell Gibson). With three forwards, three defensemen and a goalie, they balanced themselves positionally.

Their first round pick, Alexander Alexeyev, could have been taken higher, but suffered through a trying draft year, most notably dealing with the unexpected passing of his mother in the days before the CHL Top Prospects game. He is a very big player who skates beautifully, handles the puck very well and processes the game wisely. Given a full, healthy season, he could take off. Washington buttressed the blueline with their first of two consecutive picks in the middle of the second round, taking Slovakian Martin Fehervary, who has been playing in Sweden for the last four seasons. A veteran of two WJCs and two WU18s, Fehervary is a great skater and a physical player, but has minimal offensive upside. While we think Fehervary was a slight reach at 46, the selection of Kody Clark (son of Wendel) at 47 was a massive overreach. Like Alexeyev (and his own father) Clark has been injury prone in his two OHL seasons, but has no real standout tool. His skating and shooting abilities are fine, but he looked like a better candidate for the middle rounds than the second round. Also, this is the first time the Capitals have selected a player out of the OHL since drafting Tom Wilson in the first round in 2012.

A more appropriate pick was their use of a fourth rounder on another bloodline player in Riley Sutter, the son of Ron from the famous clan. A big, beefy player, Sutter will never be mistaken for an elite skater, but he plays a responsible, heavy game and can finish. Goalie Mitchell Gibson was not very prominent on our radar, but the NAHL has a knack for producing one or two goalies of note every year, and Gibson was obviously the one for 2018. He was named the top netminder in the league and will likely spend next year in the USHL before moving on to Harvard. The Capitals will give him plenty of time.

The Capitals ended their draft with two more players from the WHL in Vancouver blueliner Alex Kannok-Leipert and Saskatoon center Eric Florchuk. Kannok-Leipert is undersized and does not have a standout attribute, although he is a decent skater and is surprisingly physical. Florchuk, on the other hand, 2018’s Mr. Irrelevant, is quote good value for the end of the draft. His trade at midseason from the competing Victoria Royals to the moribund Saskatoon Chiefs, might have pushed him off the radar for some scouts, but he scored a decent clip for both clubs. He is a fine skater and a gifted puck handler. Although the Capitals selected some interesting players here, the leap to draft safe early will hurt them within a few years when they need to integrate low salaried youth into an aging roster.

OFP – 51.5

OHL Playoff Preview: Greyhounds pacing the pack

Brock Otten — Thu, 22 Mar 2018 20:51:07 +0000

The 2018 Ontario Hockey League playoffs kick off this week after the regular season wrapped up this past weekend. Heading into the playoffs, the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds are the clear favorites to come out of the OHL and represent the league at the Memorial Cup in Regina. They have spent the vast majority of the season as the top ranked team in the CHL, one of only two teams to chart the entire season (along with Blainville-Boisbriand of the QMJHL). But competition is always fierce and there are no sure bets in the OHL. Let us now take a look at each first round match-up.

Eastern Conference

#1 - Hamilton Bulldogs vs. #8 - Ottawa 67’s

Season Series: Hamilton leads 5-0

Will Bitten of the Hamilton Bulldogs. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Analysis: The Conference Champion Bulldogs face off against the 67’s after the Steelheads won on the final Sunday, securing the number 7 seed. Hamilton has been the cream of the crop of the Eastern Conference for the vast majority of the season. They have been extremely active in trades this year to give them the best chance of coming out of the East. The Bulldogs added Robert Thomas (St. Louis), Riley Stillman (Florida), Nic Caamano (Dallas), Ryan Moore, and Nic Mattinen (Toronto) to an already stacked lineup, giving Ottawa an extremely daunting challenge in round one. This team rolls three powerhouse offensive lines with Matthew Strome (Philadelphia), Will Bitten (Montreal), Mackenzie Entwistle (Arizona), Marian Studenic (New Jersey), and Brandon Saigeon being other top options. Forward Arthur Kaliyev (2019) is another name to watch. He is the first 16 year old to score 30 goals in the OHL since Alex Galchenyuk and he is a potential lottery pick next year as a power winger. In net, the Bulldogs boast one of the OHL’s most improved players this year in Kaden Fulcher (Detroit).

Kevin Bahl of the Ottawa 67's. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Ottawa, on the other hand, is a very young team. In a few years’ time, they could be Memorial Cup contenders. They could have five players drafted in the first three rounds this year (Kody Clark, Mitchell Hoelscher, Merrick Rippon, Kevin Bahl, and Carter Robertson). Offensively, they are paced by Sasha Chmelevski (San Jose), Travis Barron (Colorado), Austen Keating (2018) and Tye Felhaber. Chmelevski was a much hyped prospect who fell hard at last year’s draft (all the way to the 6th), but he has returned much stronger this season. His play away from the puck has greatly improved and it has taken his game to another level. But for all their talent offensively, the 67’s have had a very difficult time keeping the puck out of their own net this year. Overager Olivier Tremblay has not provided the stability that the team had hoped for when they brought him in early this year.

This one has all the makings of a quick series. This Ottawa team, as talented as they are young, is not yet ready for this type of challenge. The Bulldogs are one of the deepest teams in the OHL and their offensive firepower is likely to overwhelm an inexperienced defense and inconsistent netminder. One particular thing worth watching is the 67’s struggling penalty kill going up against one of the league’s best powerplay units from Hamilton. This has to be troubling for Ottawa because they also happen to be one of the league’s most undisciplined teams. And while Ottawa does have some great young offensive talent, the Bulldogs have one of the oldest defensive units in the league and are likely to limit the offensive chances of the 67’s. I look for Robert Thomas to have a big series here (and a big playoff performance overall). His points per game has taken a big dip since joining the Bulldogs, but I think he explodes this postseason.

Prediction: This Hamilton team is just too experienced and too talented for the 67’s. They have the advantage in nearly every area and should dominate. If Ottawa was getting better goaltending, I would say that they might be able to steal a game or two, but I do not even see that happening. Hamilton in 4.

#2 - Barrie Colts vs. #7 - Mississauga Steelheads

Season Series: Mississauga leads 4-2

Michael McLeod of the Mississauga Steelheads. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: If I was a betting man, I would bet that this is the match-up that Barrie wanted to avoid in the opening round. In fact, it was probably the match-up every team wanted to avoid in the first round. Mississauga has underachieved all season long, but they have shown some signs of finally coming to life the last month or so. Offensive talent is not to be questioned. Their first two lines include names like Michael McLeod (New Jersey), Ryan McLeod (2018), Owen Tippett (Florida), Trent Fox, Albert Michnac (2018), and Mathieu Foget. This group of six matches up well against any top six in the Eastern Conference and it helps to explain why the Steelheads are the third highest scoring team in the Conference. And this excludes their leading scorer, defenseman Nic Hague (Vegas), who was the first OHL defender to score 30+ since Allan Rourke. But keeping the puck out has been a challenge at times. Swedish import and defensive stalwart Jacob Moverare (Los Angeles) has been injured and that has really challenged their younger defensive players to play more minutes than they are ready for. Furthermore, young netminder Jacob Ingham (2018) has had an awful sophomore season that has seen him essentially lose the starting job to Emanuel Vella.

Andrei Svechnikov of the Barrie Colts. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

This is potentially trouble because Barrie is the highest scoring team in the Conference and the 3rd highest scoring in the OHL. Their first line of Andrei Svechnikov (2018), Aaron Luchuk (Ottawa), and Dmitry Sokolov (Minnesota) has been absolutely shredding teams of late. The supporting offensive cast includes guys like Ryan Suzuki (2019), Jason Willms (2018), and Zach Magwood who work extremely hard in all three zones and bring energy that exhausts the opposition so that the first line can go to work. The Colts do not have any stars on the blueline, but they are a tight knit unit who work well with Barrie’s forwards to play a terrific team defense. In net, overager Leo Lazerev starts and while he does not necessarily win any games outright for the Colts, he is a mostly reliable presence. It should be noted that he has yet to win an OHL playoff series in his career and probably goes into this match-up with just as many question marks as Mississauga’s tenders.

There is no question that this is not your average #2 versus #7 seed match-up. This is especially true when you consider the fact that Mississauga largely dominated the season series, winning all three games in the new year by a combined score of 18-10. For whatever reason, the speed of Mississauga’s forwards gives the defense of Barrie a tough time and Lazerev has an .840 save percentage against the Fish this season. This is complicated even more by the fact that Andrei Svechnikov has been suspended for the first four games of the series for a head check. But I admit, I have a tough time picking Mississauga to win this series. I do not trust their defense to be able to handle Barrie’s depth up front. And if these games go to an offensive shootout like they did in the regular season, I think Barrie ends up coming out on top this time. Mississauga’s Mathieu Foget has also been suspended for the first four games of the series and his loss might actually be felt more because of Mississauga’s lack of depth. His acquisition really triggered the turnaround for the team. Barrie also needs to stay out of the box. In the regular season, they gave Mississauga almost double the amount of powerplays that they received and it cost them dearly with the Steelheads clicking at over 30% with the man advantage. If they can stay out of the box, and Lazerev can make a few saves, I still like Barrie to come out on top.

Prediction: The result of this series would not surprise me either way, even with the difference in seeding. But depth is critical in the playoffs and Barrie has the advantage there. I am excited to see how the Svechnikov/Luchuk/Sokolov unit handles the pressure of the playoffs. Svechnikov, in particular, can really cement himself as the #2 prospect available in the draft with a strong postseason performance once he returns from suspension (as long as Barrie does not get swept). Barrie in 7.

#3 - Kingston Frontenacs vs. #6 - North Bay Battalion

Season Series: Kingston leads 3-1

Gabriel Vilardi of the Kingston Frontenacs. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: This is an intriguing match-up because of how differently these two teams approached the OHL season. Kingston brought in Gabe Vilardi (Los Angeles), Max Jones (Anaheim), Cliff Pu (Buffalo), Sean Day (New York Rangers), and Mitchell Byrne at the deadline to bolster an already solid line-up and make them contenders to come out of the East. While they failed to secure a division banner, the results post deadline have been mostly extremely positive. A healthy and re-invigorated Vilardi has provided the biggest boost, as his 1.87 points per game in Kingston is second to only Jordan Kyrou (St. Louis) in the OHL. His strength, on and off the puck, makes him a dominant force in all three zones and the type of player who works to tire and grind out opposing defenses.

Justin Brazeau of the North Bay Battalion. Photo by Terry Wilson /OHL Images,

The North Bay Battalion were sellers at the deadline this year, shipping out veterans Cam Dineen (Arizona), and Brett McKenzie (Vancouver). Those moves only worked to light a fire under the Battalion roster and the team actually improved their record in the New Year thanks to the play of new acquisitions Matthew Struthers (2018), and Jake Henderson, as well as veterans Justin Brazeau (2018), and Adam Thilander (2018). Brazeau, in particular, is a player to watch. The 6-5” winger finished just inside the Top 20 of league scoring and was named as the East’s most underrated player in the recent coaches poll that was released.

If we are measuring up these two teams, we need to give the edge to Kingston in nearly every area. The Fronts lead the season series 3-1, winning the three most recent games (February on). The biggest advantage Kingston has is in net with Jeremy Helvig (Carolina) manning the crease. The overager and veteran netminder has 19 OHL playoff games under his belt and is unquestionably one of the league’s top netminders. Meanwhile, the Battalion will rely on either Christian Propp (2018) or Julian Sime, who have a combined zero OHL playoff appearances. Kingston also has a heavy advantage on special teams, with their powerplay and penalty killing units operating at a higher level. With Robertson and Vilardi operating down low on the powerplay, North Bay is going to need to stay out of the box to have any chance in this series. One wild card to keep an eye on is the health of Max Jones. Jones has been out since the end of January after undergoing surgery on a broken finger. It is likely he returns at some point in these playoffs and he can be a major x-factor.

Prediction: Ultimately, Kingston’s experience and leadership should carry them to a relatively easy victory in this match-up. Gabe Vilardi and Sean Day won a Memorial Cup together last year. Mitchell Byrne won an OHL Championship last year. And Cliff Pu and Max Jones won an OHL Title and Memorial Cup in 2016. Kingston in 5.

#4 - Niagara IceDogs vs. #5 - Oshawa Generals

Season Series: Tied at 1 game apiece

Akil Thomas of the Niagara IceDogs. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: Two teams that do not see a ton of each other match-up in round one. Niagara and Oshawa also happen to be two of the hotter teams in the OHL heading into the playoffs. The IceDogs are a team that rely on speed and energy to play an up tempo and offensively oriented style of game. They get after it on the forecheck and have a powerplay that has been much improved since the acquisition of overager Sam Miletic (Pittsburgh) from London. On top of Miletic, Niagara has a trio of offensive weapons that they rely on in Kirill Maksimov (Edmonton), Akil Thomas (2018), and Ben Jones (Vegas).

Jack Studnicka of the Oshawa Generals. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Oshawa, on the other hand, prefers to slow things down and grind it out in the offensive end. Their fearless leader is Jack Studnicka (Boston), an excellent two-way center who makes an impact in so many different ways. A pair of first time draft eligible forwards support Studnicka; Serron Noel (2018), and Allan McShane (2018). Defenseman Matt Brassard (Vancouver) is also critical to their offensive success. He was one of the highest scoring defenders in the league in the second half and finished the year 7th in defensive scoring.

If we are truly comparing these two teams, it is difficult to determine who has a clear advantage. In goal, the nod should be given to Oshawa and their starter Kyle Keyser (Boston). Keyser has been a stable presence in net this year, definitely more so than Stephen Dhillon who has struggled for Niagara this year, or the inexperienced Colton Incze. Up front, I give the slight edge to Niagara because of their explosiveness and depth. On defense, the two teams boast slightly inexperienced units who are mobile, but can be mistake prone. Ultimately, I see two things possibly tipping the favor in Niagara’s direction. The first is special teams play. As mentioned, Niagara’s powerplay has been performing at a high level lately and Oshawa has one of the league’s worst penalty killing units. The second is home ice advantage, which Niagara owns after finishing the regular season on a 7 game winning streak.

Prediction: With home ice advantage, better special teams play, and a slightly more explosive offense, I like Niagara to win this series. Their goaltending concerns me slightly, but between Dhillon or Incze, they should be able to make enough big saves to at least get the IceDogs into the second round. But this one will be close. Niagara in 7.

Western Conference

#1 - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds vs. #8 - Saginaw Spirit

Season Series: SSM leads 7-1

Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds of the Ontario Hockey League. Photo by Terry Wilson

Analysis: The juggernaut Greyhounds kick off their Memorial Cup push against the Saginaw Spirit, whose five game losing streak to end the season forced them down the standings and into this first round match-up. Sault Ste. Marie has nine NHL draft picks on their roster and two more potential first rounders for 2018. Up front, Boris Katchouk (Tampa Bay), Taylor Raddysh (Tampa Bay), Jack Kopacka (Anaheim), Tim Gettinger (New York Rangers), Barrett Hayton (2018), and the underrated Hayden Verbeek pace the attack. But the real star is OHL 2nd leading scorer Morgan Frost (Philadelphia), one of the breakout stars of this season. On the backend, the Hounds are equally strong, led by Conor Timmins (Colorado), and Rasmus Sandin (2018). Neither seem to make a mistake with the puck and both are just as good in their own end as they are offensively. In net, Matthew Villalta (Los Angeles) has been a steady presence who makes the saves when he needs to.

Evan Cormier of the Saginaw Spirit. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Saginaw’s strength actually starts in net where overager Evan Cormier (New Jersey) keeps the Spirit in a lot of games that they do not deserve to be in. This is important because the Spirit struggle to score goals. They were only one of three teams in the OHL to not score 200 goals on the season and the other two finished dead last in their conferences (Flint and Sudbury). Furthermore, their powerplay was a league worst 14.7%. There is definitely some offensive talent on this team, but the team’s best days are ahead of them as guys like Blade Jenkins (2018), Nicholas Porco (2019), Ryan Stepien (2020), Aidan Prueter (2020), and Damien Giroux (2018) gain experience. In fact, the team’s only NHL drafted forward, Brady Gilmour (Detroit) finished 9th in team scoring.

In all honesty, this series should not be close and is not likely to be close. The Spirit have a talented young roster, but they are not currently an equal to the Greyhounds. Sault Ste. Marie has the advantage in nearly every area except maybe goaltending. Even then, Evan Cormier can only do so much. Heck, we might see the Greyhounds score more shorthanded goals than the Spirit score powerplay goals in the series.

Prediction: I want to say that Evan Cormier can do enough to steal a game for the Spirit in this series, but I cannot even see the Spirit winning a game. The Greyhounds are just too strong. SSM in 4.

#2 - Kitchener Rangers vs. #7 - Guelph Storm

Season Series: Kitchener leads 5-3

Logan Brown of the Kitchener Rangers. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Analysis: This is an interesting first round match-up between two teams that did not end the regular season the way they wanted to. Kitchener, a strong team all season, struggled down the stretch, although managed to hang on to their Division crown. Meanwhile, the Guelph Storm were one of the league’s worst teams in the last few months that saw them lose their grip on the #6 spot in the West. Kitchener loaded up at the deadline by bringing in Logan Brown (Ottawa), Givani Smith (Detroit), Mario Culina, and Austin McEneny. I think it would be fair to say that Kitchener is still waiting to see the best out of three of those four, with Culina playing well so far as a starter. It has been the guys around all season like Adam Mascherin (Florida), Kole Sherwood (Columbus), Joseph Gareffa, Logan Stanley (Winnipeg), and Riley Damiani (2018) that have been driving the team’s success. Moving into the playoffs, it will be about whether the newer faces can finally find chemistry or not. The health of defensive stalwart Connor Hall (Pittsburgh) could also impact the series.

Ryan Merkley of the Guelph Storm. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Guelph, as mentioned, has also struggled down the stretch, especially when it comes to preventing goals. Goaltender Anthony Popovich (2018) appeared to tire of late after seeing a huge jump in workload this season. The defensive group, led by Ryan Merkley (2018), and Dmitri Samorukov (Edmonton) also struggled, to the point where Merkley was a healthy scratch at times down the stretch. The Storm do have a hard working forward group who is capable of icing multiple scoring lines. The offensive leaders are unquestionably Isaac Ratcliffe (Philadelphia) and Cam Hillis (2018), who along with Alexei Toropchenko (St. Louis) form a quality first line.

Looking at this series a little more under the microscope, it is probably closer than people are making it out to be. The special teams match-up pretty well. Neither team has a dominant goaltender that one would qualify as a game-changer (no offense meant to Culina or Popovich). Both teams struggled down the stretch with team chemistry issues. The tipping point for me is experience. The Rangers have the clear advantage there, especially on the defensive end. Guys like Logan Stanley and Austin McEneny, who won a Memorial Cup together with Windsor last year, should really help to stabilize things, even without Connor Hall. I also look for longtime Rangers like Mascherin or Connor Bunnaman (Philadelphia) to really step up offensively to get this team over the first round hump.

Prediction: As mentioned, I feel like Kitchener’s experience advantage will help them come out on top in this series. I also feel that they have a much better team defense approach that likely plays out better for success in the playoffs. Guelph has talent, but they play a very high risk game that, without a ton of playoff experience, could be their undoing. It will be close, but Kitchener in 6.

#3 - Sarnia Sting vs. #6 - Windsor Spitfires

Season Series: Sarnia leads 5-1

Michael DiPietro of the Windsor Spitfires. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: No offense meant to the rest of the Windsor Spitfires, but this match-up is about two things. The Sarnia offense (2nd best in the OHL) versus the goaltending of Michael DiPietro (Vancouver). The dynamic DiPietro is one of the few goaltenders in the OHL who is capable of stealing a series victory for his team. The Spitfires rebuilt, dealing off the majority of their veterans held over from their Memorial Cup victory last year, but decided to hang on to their star netminder for this reason. They battle hard in the offensive end behind the likes of Curtis Douglas (2018), Cole Purboo (2018), Cody Morgan (2019), Luke Boka, and Matthew MacDougall (2018). And they play smart in their own end thanks to Connor Corcoran (2018), Nathan Staios (2019), Grayson Ladd (2019), and Zach Shankar. But this team has zero NHL drafted players outside of DiPietro and are incredibly inexperienced.

Jordan Kyrou of the Sarnia Sting. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

The Sting, conversely, were one of the biggest buyers throughout this OHL season, bringing in talented veterans like Cam Dineen (Arizona), Jonathan Ang (Florida), and Michael Pezzetta (Montreal). The lifeblood of the team is Jordan Kyrou (St. Louis), the league’s leader in points per game this year and possibly the best offensive player in the OHL. He is currently zero for three in first round appearances and is likely to do everything in his power to finally reach the second round (and beyond). You could likely argue that overager Justin Fazio is the team’s second most important player in the series, especially considering that he has to match-up against DiPietro. The margin for error is slim.

One of Sarnia’s biggest strengths is on the powerplay where Kyrou, Adam Ruzicka (Calgary), and Drake Rymsha (Los Angeles) have a combined 34 powerplay goals this year. Problem is, Windsor takes among the least amount of penalties in the OHL so as long as Windsor can continue to stay out of the box, Sarnia is going to need to beat DiPietro 5 on 5. The question I have is, how will Windsor manage to score goals, at least enough goals to win this 7 game series? It will not be with the man advantage either (likely) as the Sting have the league’s top penalty killing unit. I am slightly worried about Sarnia’s inexperienced defense though, but that concern is more directed towards round two or three (if the Sting advance that far). Sarnia will need big guys like Ruzicka, Pezzetta, Jordan Ernst, and Hugo Leufvenius (2018) to crowd DiPietro’s space as much as possible and really make him uncomfortable. Shoot, shoot, and shoot some more. Windsor fans can tell you, sometimes the best way to beat Michael DiPietro is through sheer luck and bad bounces.

Prediction: As much as I want to predict a Windsor victory, I do not see it in the cards. DiPietro will steal a few games and he will make Sarnia sweat. But the offensive firepower of Sarnia, combined with the inexperience of Windsor’s defense is likely to give the Sting too many scoring chances for the Spitfires’ star netminder to handle. Sarnia in 6.

#4 - Owen Sound Attack vs. #5 - London Knights

Season Series: London leads 4-2

Evan Bouchard of the London Knights. Photo by Terry Wilson/OHL Images.

Analysis: As is usually the case, the 4/5 matchup in the Western Conference looks to be the closest match-up of the first round, and subsequently the most difficult to prognosticate. London traded off the vast majority of their big guns to retool to fight another day. Instead, the team played inspired hockey down the stretch led by a host of younger players eager to make their mark. When talking about London, we have to start with defenseman Evan Bouchard (2018), the lifeblood of the Knights. His 87 points are the highest by a blueliner since Ryan Ellis hit the 100 point mark in 2011. The speedy Alex Formenton (Ottawa) is also playing the best hockey of his OHL career thus far with 12 goals in 14 games to close out the regular season. And you cannot talk about London without mentioning how good the “kid” line of Liam Foudy (2018), Billy Moskal (2018), and Nathan Dunkley (2018) has been since the trade deadline. This trio was challenged to step up their games with increased ice time and they all responded accordingly.

Owen Sound Attack of the Ontario Hockey League. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Owen Sound, on the other hand, was expected to be one of the top teams in the OHL this year but struggled to keep their star players healthy all year and subsequently struggled to perform consistently. That is, until the last few months when they have been, arguably, the OHL’s best. This team is scary good when healthy and they are now finally healthy. They roll three outstanding scoring lines, including a top unit of Jonah Gadjovich (Vancouver), Kevin Hancock (2018), and Nick Suzuki (Vegas) that has been one of the OHL’s best over the last two seasons. They also have one of the OHL’s top offensive blueliners in Sean Durzi (2018), who if he did not get injured, likely could have challenged Bouchard for the defenceman scoring title. It is in net where Owen Sound has struggled this season as Olivier Lafreniere and Mack Guzda (2019) have battled to find consistency. No question, Owen Sound has to have their offense rolling to win because they are not going to win many 2-1 games.

So who has the advantage going into this match-up? Experience wise, the nod has to be given to Owen Sound...and by a wide margin. The Attack are returning the vast majority of a roster that lost in the Conference finals last season. The Knights are an extremely well coached team, but they are relying on a lot of rookies and sophomores in key roles and that can often prove to be a recipe for disaster in the postseason. The deciding factor in this series probably comes down to the goaltending. So long as Owen Sound can get at least adequate goaltending from one of Lafreniere or Guzda, they should win this series. But if their goaltending struggles and team is forced to constantly play catch-up, the series tips in London’s favor, a team with nothing to lose.

Prediction: I have to give the nod to Owen Sound here because now that they are fully healthy, they look like a tough team to stop. This is especially true for a team as inexperienced as London; even if they are extremely talented. The Attack can get the saves they need to win this one, even if London pushes them and makes them sweat. Owen Sound in 6

OHL Finals Prediction

When the field is finally narrowed down to two teams who battle it out for OHL supremacy, I expect those two teams to be the Kingston Frontenacs and the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds.

From the East I like Kingston for a couple reasons. The first is experience. As I already alluded to, they have a lot of players on that roster who have already won a Memorial Cup or OHL Championship (or both). That type of leadership goes a long way in the playoffs. The second is special teams play. The great Scotty Bowman always said combined special teams play was a great indicator of postseason success. Well the Fronts have the best powerplay in the league and the second best penalty kill. The third is goaltending. Jeremy Helvig is a veteran netminder who is about as consistent as they come. I have a ton of confidence in his ability to make saves when he needs to.

From the West, I like the Soo Greyhounds as they have looked about as dominant as anyone in the OHL has over the last few years. Their 116 points is the most since Barrie put up 116 in 2010. This team has it all. Special teams success. Good goaltending. Speed. Physicality. But most of all...depth. Drew Bannister’s players rarely seem to take a shift off and they rarely make mistakes with the puck. That composure at both ends of the ice makes them the favorite.

For the OHL Title, I am taking the Soo Greyhounds to win their first J. Ross Robertson Cup since they won back to back championships in the early 90ś.