Nathan Staios – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – FLORIDA PANTHERS – Top 20 Prospect Profiles – Organizational Rank #30

Brock Otten, Derek Neumeier, Chapin Landvogt and Josh Bell — Tue, 03 Oct 2023 13:00:12 +0000

SUNRISE, FL - JANUARY 21: Grigori Denisenko #14 of the Florida Panthers skates during the game between the Florida Panthers and the Minnesota Wild at FLA Live Arean in Sunrise, FL on January 21, 2023. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire)

Top 20 Florida Panther Prospects

1. Mackie Samoskevich - RW

Selected 24th overall in the 2021 NHL Draft, Samoskevich has become the top prospect in the organization, thanks in part to the graduations of Anton Lundell and Spencer Knight. Samoskevich has been consistent in his development path, taking a step forward every season from his time with the Chicago Steel and throughout his NCAA career with the University of Michigan. His offensive awareness looks to be his greatest strength, from his navigation of the attacking zone to his ability to find teammates through traffic. He’s a competitive player, who has increasingly become more and more reliable at both ends of the ice. As has been the case since his draft year, he can hang on to the puck too long and get caught, but that seems to be lessening. He has the potential to be a 2C at the next level but may slide more comfortably into a 3C role.

2. Gracyn Sawchyn - C

Sawchyn is a cerebral pass-first center. He thrives when the puck is on his stick, always knowing what his next move with it should be, whether that's continuing to carry it himself for a while longer or moving it to a better-positioned teammate. His hands are top-tier, able to make opposing defenders look foolish, and he is very accurate and responsible with his passes, rarely forcing plays or turning the puck over. While he's not the fastest or most technically adept skater he keeps his motor revved high and his feet moving, which allows him to get a step ahead when he needs to, and he doesn't have to slow himself down at all to make his next move when he's carrying the puck in motion. Those are all advantages that he will need to maintain in order to survive the speed and physicality of the NHL, and how good of a job he does in that regard will determine where he'll settle into his team's lineup. He'll be a key piece for the Thunderbirds next year, maybe even as their first-line center, as they try to pull off the rare feat of winning back-to-back WHL championships.

3. Grigori Denisenko - LW

Drafted 15th overall way back in 2018, expectations were high for Denisenko and have remained fairly high ever since. It’s been a longer path than normal for the prospect, especially one drafted as high as him. He has remained a piece that the Panthers continue to have faith in and hold out for, despite him being in his third season in North America already with little sustained success to show for it. After a slow start in years one and two, he seemed to have taken a step forward last season with the Charlotte Checkers. He still has that skill that caused excitement years ago, especially with his quick hands and sharp turns, and he’s a firecracker on the ice. His decision-making can be concerning at times but has improved during his time in the AHL. At this point, his ceiling has dropped and it’s hard to see him as more than a bottom-six, contributing winger.

4. Justin Sourdif - RW

After two successful seasons in the WHL, Sourdif was rewarded with a selection in the 2020 NHL Draft, 87th overall. He continued a very strong WHL career for three more seasons, capping it off with a WHL Championship in 2021-22. Last season, he made the jump to the AHL where he didn’t pop as he had in the Dub, but he wasn’t far off either. The forward has a never-give-up attitude mixed with excellent speed, enabling him to win most races to the puck. His puck protection and possession are very strong, never wanting to give up the puck to his opponents. He’s also effective at both ends of the ice, making him even more dynamic. He has the makings of a solid third liner and a penalty-killer in the NHL but needs to build more strength and get more comfortable in the AHL first.

5. Aleksi Heponiemi - C

The wait for Heponiemi has been a very long one. Drafted way back in 2017, the forward has yet to truly break into the NHL, despite seeing time in the top league during each of the past three seasons. Heponiemi was a very exciting prospect heading into the draft, coming over to the WHL in 2016-17 and

winning Rookie of the Year. He played one more season with the Swift Current Broncos and put up a very impressive 118-points. He followed that with a big year in the Liiga, leading all rookies in points (46) before heading to the AHL in 2019-20. Heponiemi has struggled to truly find that dominance that he had in other leagues, looking more like a bottom-six contributor versus a potential offensive catalyst. He’s still a very strong playmaker, but his size (5-10”, 154 pounds) has contributed to his struggles in carving out an NHL role for himself. This summer, he signed with EHC Biel-Bienne in the Swiss National League and he remains unsigned by the Panthers as of this writing, putting his NHL future in serious question.

6. Michael Benning - D

Another player of smaller size in the Panthers system, Benning had a dominant career in the AJHL, leading the league in points from a defender in both of his seasons and being named the Top Defender in both the AJHL and CJHL in his final year. After being drafted in 2020, 95th overall, he made the jump to the NCAA with the University of Denver. After taking the first season to get comfortable, he found his way back to his dominating ways in 2021-22, leading Denver to an NCAA Championship and earning Tournament MVP in the process. The 5-9”, 181-pound rearguard truly shines in his transition game, dictating the play and pace of his team from his own end. He’s fearless with the puck and has a level of creativity that allows him to create chances in the offensive zone. The transition to the next level will be tough with his size, but he has the tools to succeed.

7. Evan Nause - D

Nause was a polarizing prospect throughout his draft year and that hasn’t changed as a drafted prospect. His draft year was solid, earning him a nod to the QMJHL All-Rookie Team and he then took a step forward when given an expanded role in 2021-22. His progression last season wasn’t as pronounced, but the Remparts were Memorial Cup Champions and Nause’s development is still on the right track and trending up. He has good size and looks like he could develop into a solid two-way presence. He reads the play very well, anticipating passes and cutting off lanes. He plays with a very calm demeanour. That can be an issue at times as he can appear to not play with urgency. He’s still fairly raw, but he has good mobility and the tools to be effective in his own end. He could be a bottom-of-the-line-up option that bounces between the AHL and NHL.

8. John Ludvig - D

After being passed over in the 2018 NHL Draft, the Panthers bet on Ludvig in 2019, selecting him 69th overall. He was coming off an 18-point season, more than double his previous total. In 2019-20, he returned to the Portland Winterhawks as the captain and exploded for a 62-point season and was named a First Team All-Star in the league. That was all the Panthers needed to see to sign him to his entry-level deal. Unfortunately, it’s been a tough road for the defender since then with several injury setbacks. He seemed on a path to be a physical, contributing rearguard who plays a mistake-free game. With his injuries and the impact on his development, it remains to be seen where he goes from here. Last season saw him get back on track a bit, so it’s up to the Panthers how they want to continue with his development.

9. Albert Wikman - D

There will always be a place in the NHL for steady, no frills, defensive defensemen, and Wikman fits that bill perfectly. He's a new age type of defender though, foregoing the outdated priorities of pugnacity and brawn in exchange for smarts and skating ability. Being able to defend an opposing player one-on-one is much harder than it looks, but you would never know it by watching him because he does it so confidently and casually. He always seems to be in control and has a very businesslike approach about his game. Pressure doesn't seem to faze him, and he rarely panics when the ice is tilted against his team. Without the puck he is very advanced with his positioning, angling and tie-ups, and when he does get it, he is capable on breakouts, as his outlet passes are clean and he's not afraid to skate it out himself. If he were a little bigger, a little more mobile, or a little bit of both, he'd project more as a number two defender than a number four, which is how he looks now. Wikman will never put up big point totals but will still make a positive difference in the win column.

10. Mack Guzda - G

The Panthers have Spencer Knight in net for the foreseeable future, but having another goaltender or two in the system is never a bad thing. Passed over through every NHL Draft he was eligible for, the Panthers signed Guzda as a free agent in February, 2022 while he was in the midst of a strong fourth and final OHL season, putting up a .915 save percentage. He stepped into the AHL last season and performed well as a rookie, playing fairly significant minutes. He’s intelligent, twice winning the Ivan Tennant Award as the Top Academic High School Player in the OHL. He’s got the size at 6- 5”, 216 pounds, the technical ability, and the ability to track pucks, and while he’s not going to be stealing Knights’ spot any time soon, he could fit well behind him moving forward.

11. Santtu Kinnunen - D

Florida had to be very patient with Kinnunen after drafting him in the 7th round of 2018. He finally came over to North America last year and the results were great as he finished second in defensive scoring for Charlotte. As an older prospect, the window of opportunity is probably small, but his puck moving ability is impressive and he could quarterback a powerplay in the future.

12. Logan Hutsko - RW

Even though Hutsko remains an RFA as of this writing and has signed in the SHL for the coming season, he remains someone to be hopeful for. The undersized forward has the skill, he just needs to gain confidence playing against men and the SHL should be great for his development.

13. Ryan McAllister - LW

One of the most sought after NCAA free agents this year, McAllister elected to leave Western Michigan after his freshman year. His playmaking ability and vision are his best assets and he could be a real diamond in the rough for the organization.

14. Marek Alscher - D

Alscher has a solid projection as a dependable stay-at-home defender because of his combination of length, mobility, and physicality. He will return to Portland (WHL) for a final junior season with the hope of improving his confidence with the puck.

15. Ludvig Jansson - D

The surprise of the WJC last year, Jansson came out of nowhere to be one of the tournament’s best defenders. Now he needs to show it at the pro level in the SHL where he has recently joined the Lulea program.

16. Jack Devine - RW

A strong complementary winger, Devine finds success thanks to a great motor and a high IQ. He is coming off of a great sophomore campaign at the U of Denver and will look to become one of the better wingers in the NCAA this season.

17. Sandis Vilmanis - LW

Blocked behind some other talented prospects in Sarnia last year, Vilmanis is primed for a breakout campaign in the OHL this year. The talent is there for the Latvian winger. Let’s see what he does with the opportunity.

18. Josh Davies - LW

Davies is like the “little engine that could.” He’s not the biggest, but he is among the fiercest in the WHL. He never takes a shift off and has developed a pest-like reputation. This year the Panthers will need to decide whether he has earned a contract and they’ll be looking for him to improve his offe nsive production to match his high energy approach.

19. Zach Uens - D

A Merrimack College standout, Uens’ first pro year was a disappointment as he failed to stick in the AHL full time and finished the ECHL season with a mere four points in 35 games. The physical tools are still very alluring, but he needs to have a better year to stay relevant.

20. Nathan Staios - D

The Panthers signed Staios after he won the Max Kaminsky trophy, as the OHL’s top defenseman in 2022. Unfortunately, the undersized blueliner struggled in his first pro year. His mobility is a major plus, but the decision making needs to improve for Staios to stick in the AHL this year.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – FLORIDA PANTHERS – Top 20 Prospects

Contributors – Brock Otten, Chapin Landvogt, Ethan Hetu, Viktor Fomich — Sun, 18 Sep 2022 18:14:17 +0000

NASHVILLE, TN - APRIL 27: Florida Panthers left wing Grigori Denisenko (14) and center Aleksander Barkov (16) talk during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Florida Panthers, held on April 27, 2021, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

1 - Mackie Samoskevich RW

As a member of the Chicago Steel in his draft season and as a Michigan Wolverine, it was easy for Samoskevich to get lost among a sea of other highly-drafted, highly-talented NHL prospects. Samoskevich's list of teammates read off as a top prospect list of their own, and Samoskevich's game has definitely benefited from playing alongside such talented players. But that being said, Samoskevich's profile still ultimately stands on its own two feet. Samoskevich is an offensive talent, a quality playmaker and someone who is always looking to drive play and put his teammates in positions to score. Samoskevich wasn't a centerpiece offensive player as a freshman at Michigan, and the night-to-night quality of his contributions fluctuated more than he likely would have liked. But when Samoskevich was at his best, he was driving play and taking over shifts. Like many offense-first prospects around his age, Samoskevich doesn't use the inside of the ice as well as he should. His offensive tendencies are in need of some refinement, and he'll need to get better at learning to accept creating some less-than-ideal offensive chances rather than holding on to the puck too long in order to find the perfect look. If he can introduce some habits in his game that will serve him well at the pro level, his path to the NHL will become much smoother. There's a talent package that should allow Samoskevich to become a capable contributor to an NHL scoring line, and even perhaps a play-driving one, but there's a good deal of development that needs to happen before Samoskevich can get there. – EH

2 - Grigori Denisenko LW

Selected 15^th overall in the 2018 draft, Denisenko’s progress has been much slower than many, ourselves included, who have expected future NHL stardom, could foresee. He has completed his second full, albeit truncated, season of play in North America. He made the jump from Russia after a full KHL season with modest production which was boosted by a strong WJC. His move the North America coincided with Covid and Denisenko found himself in no-man’s land until the NHL and then AHL started up in 20-21. That first season showed promise, but last season cast a bit of a shadow on his prospect status. Only suiting up once for a deep and high-octane Panthers team, Denisenko was left to grow in the AHL, where things were progressing along well enough until a mid-January blocked shot resulted in a broken kneecap, ending his season. Presumably fit to begin the upcoming campaign, Denisenko likely needs further AHL time to determine his ability to help the NHL squad. On the other hand, with multiple regulars having departed the club while Anthony Duclair appears to be out for perhaps the entire season, there seems to be a lower line job for the taking, should Denisenko be ready to take the next step this fall. – CL

3 - Justin Sourdif RW

It was a good final year for Sourdif in the WHL. A midseason trade saw him join the Edmonton Oil Kings where he played a key role in their WHL Championship victory. Unfortunately, a training injury kept Sourdif from suiting up for Canada again at the re-started WJC’s in August, however, he remains a key prospect for the Panthers moving forward. Sourdif has a very well-rounded game. He is extremely versatile. He can impact the game because of his speed, which he uses to be active in puck pursuit in all three zones. He can impact the game with his physicality and tenaciousness. He is skilled and can make plays at high speed. Sourdif loves to take on defenders one on one and will look to work his way into the middle of the ice. An intelligent playmaker, his confidence in his shot also improved this year, especially once he joined Edmonton and became more of a support player on a stronger team. His pro journey will begin this season with Charlotte and Sourdif should be an immediate impact player for the Checkers. Depending on how he deals with the size and strength of pro defenders, he could move quickly through Florida’s system. Sourdif projects as a middle six forward who can play a variety of different roles, likely starting out in a bottom six role before moving up. - BO

4 - Evan Nause D

Nause was an instrumental piece in Quebec’s organization last season. He plays a very effective game in all three zones of the ice and performs extremely well under pressure. Nause might not be the most skilled or flashiest player, but he’s very reliable, makes sound decisions at all times and makes everything seem effortless. The Panthers prospect will be playing once again this season with a scary Quebec Remparts team where they’ll look to make up for last season’s disappointing run by going all in with new acquisitions such as Justin Robidas to their already stacked offensive group. The focus this year for Nause will be to take yet another step forward as an offensive defender. He moves well and Florida will be looking for him to use his skating ability to be more aggressive with the puck to help create offensive opportunities for the Remparts. The former second round selection does look like a potential #4-6 defender for Florida in the future and someone who could be a fairly versatile depth defender. However, if the aforementioned offensive game continues to progress, there is a chance that his projection changes to be a more integral building block. - EB

5 - Michael Benning D

There has been a lot of conversation about the changing face of the “modern” NHL defenseman, and as speed and skill continue to be prioritized in blueliners, the idea of the prototypical defenseman being six-foot-four and ready to smash opposing forwards into the boards have begun to die out. There have been many faces of this new wave of modern NHL defensemen, and Michael Benning could be another name in the ever-expanding list of talented undersized defensemen who have impactful NHL careers. Benning, a longtime teammate of Edmonton Oilers prospect Carter Savoie, had always been a play-controlling, productive offensive defenseman. But when Benning got to the University of Denver, a team with championship aspirations, his old habits weren’t going to get him to where he needed to go. He needed to polish his game and add some more safety to a profile that was all about aggression and chance creation as a junior player. Benning’s sophomore season was a massive step up from his freshman offering, and he helped lead an extremely talented Pioneers team to an NCAA national championship. Benning’s offensive game is well-developed, and he has all the elements to his game that give him NHL upside as an offensive defenseman. He can skate and contribute in transition, he can see the offensive zone quite well and pairs poise and playmaking flair to be a strong offensive zone facilitator. Benning’s game in his own zone isn’t nearly as developed as his offensive game, and that could pose issues for his pro projection. But even if he doesn’t improve in his own zone, he should still have NHL upside as a puck-moving offensive defenseman who will work best when paired with a defense-first partner. - EH

6 - Aleksi Heponiemi C

A 2017 2^nd rounder, Heponiemi is a little engine that could. His 5’10” height has always been suboptimal, but his 155-pound body has only exacerbated the challenge of his sticking in the NHL. Nonetheless, he has continued to put up gaudy numbers. Drafted after putting up over one point per game in the WHL, he proceeded to top two PPG in his D+1 year, before returning to his native Finland as a 19-year-old, where he sported 46 points in 50 regular season outings. The past two seasons have seen Heponiemi find his level, hitting a wall in his production his first time out in the AHL, producing nicely with MoDo of the HockeyAllsvenskan in 20-21 before getting a 9-game debut with the Panthers (two points). Last season with the Charlotte Checkers, Heponiemi established himself as one of the most adept power play actors in the entire AHL. Few players could enter the opposition zone as fluently as the Finn and his puck prowess in all situations was clearly at another level. He is hitting a crossroads heading into this season, the last of his contract, as Florida is built to win and there is no indication that he is even seen as one of the first call-ups, save for a need for a power play specialist. Then again, few clubs have been able to turn players into unexpected offensive weapons in recent years better than the Panthers. – CL

7 - Vladislav Lukashevich D

The season had been pretty uneventful for Vladislav Lukashevich and not in a good way, as after being sidelined for eight months due to an undisclosed injury, he returned to game action midseason and looked rather rusty. Even though he still was able to get in a decent amount of MHL game action, he didn’t look like much of a difference maker there and it might be fair to consider his entire season a wash. 12 months after being drafted, Lukashevich is more or less in the same developmental place he was when the Panthers called his name: he has a great frame that still needs to add a good deal of muscle, solid skating and skill, but the whole is not yet equal to the sum of his parts. All signs are pointing towards another season spent mostly in the MHL junior league this season, which might be a bit disappointing, but is not unexpected after the season he had. Lukashevich will be expected to be one of the leaders of his team, which would be good for his development. It should also be added that it is the final year of his current contract and seeing how the Lokomotiv organization is strong on the blueline, it will be difficult to get opportunities there, possibly making the young player more likely to look favorably at a move to North America. - VF

8 - Max Gildon D

After a strong rookie season in the AHL in 2021, that saw Gildon named a member of the All-Rookie Team, last year was a big step backward for the former Hobey Baker candidate, thanks to a lower body injury that ended his season in December. This year, he will try to recover the momentum he had built previously as he looks to become a top defender for Charlotte. Gildon has a very intriguing athletic make-up. He skates pretty well for his size (6’3), protects the crease and defends with physicality, and shows well as a puck mover with good hands and vision. He may not be a natural powerplay quarterback or a highly creative player, but there is a good chance that he could develop into an all situations top four defender. Without question, Florida has openings in their third pairing and will be looking to promote a prospect or two to that role. Given his recovery from injury, Gildon would appear to be a long shot at one of those spots. However, if he rebounds well and performs like he did in his rookie AHL season, he could easily push his way to the top of a weaker farm system. - BO

9 - Nathan Staios D

An undersized defender, Staois is the son of former NHL defender Steve Staois. Playing for his father in Hamilton, the younger Staois was a standout in his final (overage) year in the OHL, helping the Bulldogs win an OHL Championship. His strong performance led to him being named the recipient of the Max Kaminsky trophy, awarded to the league’s top defenseman. Then following the conclusion of the Memorial Cup, the Panthers inked him to a contract as a free agent. Staois is a tremendous skater, something he relies on to be an impactful offensive defender. He gains the offensive zone with ease on most occasions at the junior level and is terrific at walking the line inside the offensive zone to keep plays alive. While undersized, he also competes hard in the defensive zone to make up for his lack of stature. However, there are some decision-making issues which could become amplified at the pro level. A high risk/high reward type of player, he will need to learn to pick his spots to activate better. Additionally, his defensive zone awareness and ability to win 50/50 battles in high traffic areas will need to improve for him to be effective at even strength in the AHL. Staois has terrific potential to be an impactful defender, but like any free agent signing, he may take time to reach it as a longer shot. - BO

10 - John Ludvig D

It was a tough year for Panthers’ defensive prospects at the AHL level last year. Max Gildon missed most of the year with a lower body injury and John Ludvig missed almost the entire season following hip surgery. He battled back to play in the last few games of Charlotte’s year, which was encouraging, but you can throw his performance in those games out the window. This coming season will be a fresh start for Ludvig to try to re-find the confidence he had as one of the WHL’s best defenders previously. The question is, how will this serious hip injury affect his skating ability and ability to improve it further? Entering the pro ranks, Ludvig’s skating was the area of his game that still needed the most work and now that might be difficult for him. However, the rest of his game is extremely solid. He has a booming point shot, putting his entire 215lbs frame behind it. He is poised with the puck and shows good vision in all three zones. He is an aggressive defender who clears the crease and makes opposing forwards work to gain touches, especially along the wall. This well-rounded game gives him an NHL projection, even if his skating never improves beyond average. Like organization-mate Gildon, Ludvig will be looking to rebound as one of Charlotte’s top defenders this season, helping to re-emerge as a top prospect in the Florida system. – BO

11 - Mack Guzda

A free agent signing by the Panthers this past season out of the OHL, Guzda showed massive growth in a year split between Owen Sound and Barrie. The big netminder has improved his quickness and agility and will get a chance to play in the AHL this year.

12 - Serron Noel

A power winger, Noel struggled to adapt to the pace of the pro game in his first full AHL season. There is some concern that his development has plateaued. However, this year should give Florida a better indication of his potential.

13 - Logan Hutsko

After four good years at Boston College, Hutsko’s first pro season was largely a success for Charlotte. An undersized scoring forward, Hutsko will have to put up numbers to be a valuable pro.

14 - Zach Uens

What Florida has in Uens remains to be seen. The athletic defender shows good potential at both ends, however finding a true role at the pro level may be difficult. More should be known after he turned pro this season.

15 - Matt Kiersted

While an older prospect, Kiersted was once a prize free agent signing out of UND. The competitive two-way defender may have limited upside, but he could be a full time NHL player in a depth role this coming season.

16 - Liam Arnsby

Drafted late in 2022, Arnsby is an aggressive, defensively oriented center. He hits like a truck and can play a variety of roles. Upgrading his skating will be key as he returns to the OHL with North Bay.

17 - Josh Davies

Like Arnsby, Davies was a late round pick in 2022 who projects as a bottom six NHL player because of his tenacity and high energy game. He will look to improve his offensive production with Swift Current this season (WHL).

18 - Marek Alscher

A suffocating defensive defender, Alscher was a solid presence for the Portland Winterhawks in his first WHL season. Is there room for him to grow as a puck carrier or is his ceiling limited?

19 - Henry Bowlby

There is not much in the way of offensive potential for the defensive minded forward out of Harvard, however he could one day play a depth role for the Panthers as a penalty killing fourth liner.

20 - Kasper Puutio

Admittedly, this list was solidified prior to the completion of the WJC’s where Puutio emerged out of nowhere to be named the tournament’s top defender. A former 5th rounder, he will look to carry over that success to the Liiga level this coming season.

OHL Playoff Preview: Greyhounds pacing the pack

Brock Otten — Thu, 22 Mar 2018 20:51:07 +0000

The 2018 Ontario Hockey League playoffs kick off this week after the regular season wrapped up this past weekend. Heading into the playoffs, the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds are the clear favorites to come out of the OHL and represent the league at the Memorial Cup in Regina. They have spent the vast majority of the season as the top ranked team in the CHL, one of only two teams to chart the entire season (along with Blainville-Boisbriand of the QMJHL). But competition is always fierce and there are no sure bets in the OHL. Let us now take a look at each first round match-up.

Eastern Conference

#1 - Hamilton Bulldogs vs. #8 - Ottawa 67’s

Season Series: Hamilton leads 5-0

Will Bitten of the Hamilton Bulldogs. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Analysis: The Conference Champion Bulldogs face off against the 67’s after the Steelheads won on the final Sunday, securing the number 7 seed. Hamilton has been the cream of the crop of the Eastern Conference for the vast majority of the season. They have been extremely active in trades this year to give them the best chance of coming out of the East. The Bulldogs added Robert Thomas (St. Louis), Riley Stillman (Florida), Nic Caamano (Dallas), Ryan Moore, and Nic Mattinen (Toronto) to an already stacked lineup, giving Ottawa an extremely daunting challenge in round one. This team rolls three powerhouse offensive lines with Matthew Strome (Philadelphia), Will Bitten (Montreal), Mackenzie Entwistle (Arizona), Marian Studenic (New Jersey), and Brandon Saigeon being other top options. Forward Arthur Kaliyev (2019) is another name to watch. He is the first 16 year old to score 30 goals in the OHL since Alex Galchenyuk and he is a potential lottery pick next year as a power winger. In net, the Bulldogs boast one of the OHL’s most improved players this year in Kaden Fulcher (Detroit).

Kevin Bahl of the Ottawa 67's. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Ottawa, on the other hand, is a very young team. In a few years’ time, they could be Memorial Cup contenders. They could have five players drafted in the first three rounds this year (Kody Clark, Mitchell Hoelscher, Merrick Rippon, Kevin Bahl, and Carter Robertson). Offensively, they are paced by Sasha Chmelevski (San Jose), Travis Barron (Colorado), Austen Keating (2018) and Tye Felhaber. Chmelevski was a much hyped prospect who fell hard at last year’s draft (all the way to the 6th), but he has returned much stronger this season. His play away from the puck has greatly improved and it has taken his game to another level. But for all their talent offensively, the 67’s have had a very difficult time keeping the puck out of their own net this year. Overager Olivier Tremblay has not provided the stability that the team had hoped for when they brought him in early this year.

This one has all the makings of a quick series. This Ottawa team, as talented as they are young, is not yet ready for this type of challenge. The Bulldogs are one of the deepest teams in the OHL and their offensive firepower is likely to overwhelm an inexperienced defense and inconsistent netminder. One particular thing worth watching is the 67’s struggling penalty kill going up against one of the league’s best powerplay units from Hamilton. This has to be troubling for Ottawa because they also happen to be one of the league’s most undisciplined teams. And while Ottawa does have some great young offensive talent, the Bulldogs have one of the oldest defensive units in the league and are likely to limit the offensive chances of the 67’s. I look for Robert Thomas to have a big series here (and a big playoff performance overall). His points per game has taken a big dip since joining the Bulldogs, but I think he explodes this postseason.

Prediction: This Hamilton team is just too experienced and too talented for the 67’s. They have the advantage in nearly every area and should dominate. If Ottawa was getting better goaltending, I would say that they might be able to steal a game or two, but I do not even see that happening. Hamilton in 4.

#2 - Barrie Colts vs. #7 - Mississauga Steelheads

Season Series: Mississauga leads 4-2

Michael McLeod of the Mississauga Steelheads. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: If I was a betting man, I would bet that this is the match-up that Barrie wanted to avoid in the opening round. In fact, it was probably the match-up every team wanted to avoid in the first round. Mississauga has underachieved all season long, but they have shown some signs of finally coming to life the last month or so. Offensive talent is not to be questioned. Their first two lines include names like Michael McLeod (New Jersey), Ryan McLeod (2018), Owen Tippett (Florida), Trent Fox, Albert Michnac (2018), and Mathieu Foget. This group of six matches up well against any top six in the Eastern Conference and it helps to explain why the Steelheads are the third highest scoring team in the Conference. And this excludes their leading scorer, defenseman Nic Hague (Vegas), who was the first OHL defender to score 30+ since Allan Rourke. But keeping the puck out has been a challenge at times. Swedish import and defensive stalwart Jacob Moverare (Los Angeles) has been injured and that has really challenged their younger defensive players to play more minutes than they are ready for. Furthermore, young netminder Jacob Ingham (2018) has had an awful sophomore season that has seen him essentially lose the starting job to Emanuel Vella.

Andrei Svechnikov of the Barrie Colts. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

This is potentially trouble because Barrie is the highest scoring team in the Conference and the 3rd highest scoring in the OHL. Their first line of Andrei Svechnikov (2018), Aaron Luchuk (Ottawa), and Dmitry Sokolov (Minnesota) has been absolutely shredding teams of late. The supporting offensive cast includes guys like Ryan Suzuki (2019), Jason Willms (2018), and Zach Magwood who work extremely hard in all three zones and bring energy that exhausts the opposition so that the first line can go to work. The Colts do not have any stars on the blueline, but they are a tight knit unit who work well with Barrie’s forwards to play a terrific team defense. In net, overager Leo Lazerev starts and while he does not necessarily win any games outright for the Colts, he is a mostly reliable presence. It should be noted that he has yet to win an OHL playoff series in his career and probably goes into this match-up with just as many question marks as Mississauga’s tenders.

There is no question that this is not your average #2 versus #7 seed match-up. This is especially true when you consider the fact that Mississauga largely dominated the season series, winning all three games in the new year by a combined score of 18-10. For whatever reason, the speed of Mississauga’s forwards gives the defense of Barrie a tough time and Lazerev has an .840 save percentage against the Fish this season. This is complicated even more by the fact that Andrei Svechnikov has been suspended for the first four games of the series for a head check. But I admit, I have a tough time picking Mississauga to win this series. I do not trust their defense to be able to handle Barrie’s depth up front. And if these games go to an offensive shootout like they did in the regular season, I think Barrie ends up coming out on top this time. Mississauga’s Mathieu Foget has also been suspended for the first four games of the series and his loss might actually be felt more because of Mississauga’s lack of depth. His acquisition really triggered the turnaround for the team. Barrie also needs to stay out of the box. In the regular season, they gave Mississauga almost double the amount of powerplays that they received and it cost them dearly with the Steelheads clicking at over 30% with the man advantage. If they can stay out of the box, and Lazerev can make a few saves, I still like Barrie to come out on top.

Prediction: The result of this series would not surprise me either way, even with the difference in seeding. But depth is critical in the playoffs and Barrie has the advantage there. I am excited to see how the Svechnikov/Luchuk/Sokolov unit handles the pressure of the playoffs. Svechnikov, in particular, can really cement himself as the #2 prospect available in the draft with a strong postseason performance once he returns from suspension (as long as Barrie does not get swept). Barrie in 7.

#3 - Kingston Frontenacs vs. #6 - North Bay Battalion

Season Series: Kingston leads 3-1

Gabriel Vilardi of the Kingston Frontenacs. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: This is an intriguing match-up because of how differently these two teams approached the OHL season. Kingston brought in Gabe Vilardi (Los Angeles), Max Jones (Anaheim), Cliff Pu (Buffalo), Sean Day (New York Rangers), and Mitchell Byrne at the deadline to bolster an already solid line-up and make them contenders to come out of the East. While they failed to secure a division banner, the results post deadline have been mostly extremely positive. A healthy and re-invigorated Vilardi has provided the biggest boost, as his 1.87 points per game in Kingston is second to only Jordan Kyrou (St. Louis) in the OHL. His strength, on and off the puck, makes him a dominant force in all three zones and the type of player who works to tire and grind out opposing defenses.

Justin Brazeau of the North Bay Battalion. Photo by Terry Wilson /OHL Images,

The North Bay Battalion were sellers at the deadline this year, shipping out veterans Cam Dineen (Arizona), and Brett McKenzie (Vancouver). Those moves only worked to light a fire under the Battalion roster and the team actually improved their record in the New Year thanks to the play of new acquisitions Matthew Struthers (2018), and Jake Henderson, as well as veterans Justin Brazeau (2018), and Adam Thilander (2018). Brazeau, in particular, is a player to watch. The 6-5” winger finished just inside the Top 20 of league scoring and was named as the East’s most underrated player in the recent coaches poll that was released.

If we are measuring up these two teams, we need to give the edge to Kingston in nearly every area. The Fronts lead the season series 3-1, winning the three most recent games (February on). The biggest advantage Kingston has is in net with Jeremy Helvig (Carolina) manning the crease. The overager and veteran netminder has 19 OHL playoff games under his belt and is unquestionably one of the league’s top netminders. Meanwhile, the Battalion will rely on either Christian Propp (2018) or Julian Sime, who have a combined zero OHL playoff appearances. Kingston also has a heavy advantage on special teams, with their powerplay and penalty killing units operating at a higher level. With Robertson and Vilardi operating down low on the powerplay, North Bay is going to need to stay out of the box to have any chance in this series. One wild card to keep an eye on is the health of Max Jones. Jones has been out since the end of January after undergoing surgery on a broken finger. It is likely he returns at some point in these playoffs and he can be a major x-factor.

Prediction: Ultimately, Kingston’s experience and leadership should carry them to a relatively easy victory in this match-up. Gabe Vilardi and Sean Day won a Memorial Cup together last year. Mitchell Byrne won an OHL Championship last year. And Cliff Pu and Max Jones won an OHL Title and Memorial Cup in 2016. Kingston in 5.

#4 - Niagara IceDogs vs. #5 - Oshawa Generals

Season Series: Tied at 1 game apiece

Akil Thomas of the Niagara IceDogs. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: Two teams that do not see a ton of each other match-up in round one. Niagara and Oshawa also happen to be two of the hotter teams in the OHL heading into the playoffs. The IceDogs are a team that rely on speed and energy to play an up tempo and offensively oriented style of game. They get after it on the forecheck and have a powerplay that has been much improved since the acquisition of overager Sam Miletic (Pittsburgh) from London. On top of Miletic, Niagara has a trio of offensive weapons that they rely on in Kirill Maksimov (Edmonton), Akil Thomas (2018), and Ben Jones (Vegas).

Jack Studnicka of the Oshawa Generals. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Oshawa, on the other hand, prefers to slow things down and grind it out in the offensive end. Their fearless leader is Jack Studnicka (Boston), an excellent two-way center who makes an impact in so many different ways. A pair of first time draft eligible forwards support Studnicka; Serron Noel (2018), and Allan McShane (2018). Defenseman Matt Brassard (Vancouver) is also critical to their offensive success. He was one of the highest scoring defenders in the league in the second half and finished the year 7th in defensive scoring.

If we are truly comparing these two teams, it is difficult to determine who has a clear advantage. In goal, the nod should be given to Oshawa and their starter Kyle Keyser (Boston). Keyser has been a stable presence in net this year, definitely more so than Stephen Dhillon who has struggled for Niagara this year, or the inexperienced Colton Incze. Up front, I give the slight edge to Niagara because of their explosiveness and depth. On defense, the two teams boast slightly inexperienced units who are mobile, but can be mistake prone. Ultimately, I see two things possibly tipping the favor in Niagara’s direction. The first is special teams play. As mentioned, Niagara’s powerplay has been performing at a high level lately and Oshawa has one of the league’s worst penalty killing units. The second is home ice advantage, which Niagara owns after finishing the regular season on a 7 game winning streak.

Prediction: With home ice advantage, better special teams play, and a slightly more explosive offense, I like Niagara to win this series. Their goaltending concerns me slightly, but between Dhillon or Incze, they should be able to make enough big saves to at least get the IceDogs into the second round. But this one will be close. Niagara in 7.

Western Conference

#1 - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds vs. #8 - Saginaw Spirit

Season Series: SSM leads 7-1

Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds of the Ontario Hockey League. Photo by Terry Wilson

Analysis: The juggernaut Greyhounds kick off their Memorial Cup push against the Saginaw Spirit, whose five game losing streak to end the season forced them down the standings and into this first round match-up. Sault Ste. Marie has nine NHL draft picks on their roster and two more potential first rounders for 2018. Up front, Boris Katchouk (Tampa Bay), Taylor Raddysh (Tampa Bay), Jack Kopacka (Anaheim), Tim Gettinger (New York Rangers), Barrett Hayton (2018), and the underrated Hayden Verbeek pace the attack. But the real star is OHL 2nd leading scorer Morgan Frost (Philadelphia), one of the breakout stars of this season. On the backend, the Hounds are equally strong, led by Conor Timmins (Colorado), and Rasmus Sandin (2018). Neither seem to make a mistake with the puck and both are just as good in their own end as they are offensively. In net, Matthew Villalta (Los Angeles) has been a steady presence who makes the saves when he needs to.

Evan Cormier of the Saginaw Spirit. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Saginaw’s strength actually starts in net where overager Evan Cormier (New Jersey) keeps the Spirit in a lot of games that they do not deserve to be in. This is important because the Spirit struggle to score goals. They were only one of three teams in the OHL to not score 200 goals on the season and the other two finished dead last in their conferences (Flint and Sudbury). Furthermore, their powerplay was a league worst 14.7%. There is definitely some offensive talent on this team, but the team’s best days are ahead of them as guys like Blade Jenkins (2018), Nicholas Porco (2019), Ryan Stepien (2020), Aidan Prueter (2020), and Damien Giroux (2018) gain experience. In fact, the team’s only NHL drafted forward, Brady Gilmour (Detroit) finished 9th in team scoring.

In all honesty, this series should not be close and is not likely to be close. The Spirit have a talented young roster, but they are not currently an equal to the Greyhounds. Sault Ste. Marie has the advantage in nearly every area except maybe goaltending. Even then, Evan Cormier can only do so much. Heck, we might see the Greyhounds score more shorthanded goals than the Spirit score powerplay goals in the series.

Prediction: I want to say that Evan Cormier can do enough to steal a game for the Spirit in this series, but I cannot even see the Spirit winning a game. The Greyhounds are just too strong. SSM in 4.

#2 - Kitchener Rangers vs. #7 - Guelph Storm

Season Series: Kitchener leads 5-3

Logan Brown of the Kitchener Rangers. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Analysis: This is an interesting first round match-up between two teams that did not end the regular season the way they wanted to. Kitchener, a strong team all season, struggled down the stretch, although managed to hang on to their Division crown. Meanwhile, the Guelph Storm were one of the league’s worst teams in the last few months that saw them lose their grip on the #6 spot in the West. Kitchener loaded up at the deadline by bringing in Logan Brown (Ottawa), Givani Smith (Detroit), Mario Culina, and Austin McEneny. I think it would be fair to say that Kitchener is still waiting to see the best out of three of those four, with Culina playing well so far as a starter. It has been the guys around all season like Adam Mascherin (Florida), Kole Sherwood (Columbus), Joseph Gareffa, Logan Stanley (Winnipeg), and Riley Damiani (2018) that have been driving the team’s success. Moving into the playoffs, it will be about whether the newer faces can finally find chemistry or not. The health of defensive stalwart Connor Hall (Pittsburgh) could also impact the series.

Ryan Merkley of the Guelph Storm. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Guelph, as mentioned, has also struggled down the stretch, especially when it comes to preventing goals. Goaltender Anthony Popovich (2018) appeared to tire of late after seeing a huge jump in workload this season. The defensive group, led by Ryan Merkley (2018), and Dmitri Samorukov (Edmonton) also struggled, to the point where Merkley was a healthy scratch at times down the stretch. The Storm do have a hard working forward group who is capable of icing multiple scoring lines. The offensive leaders are unquestionably Isaac Ratcliffe (Philadelphia) and Cam Hillis (2018), who along with Alexei Toropchenko (St. Louis) form a quality first line.

Looking at this series a little more under the microscope, it is probably closer than people are making it out to be. The special teams match-up pretty well. Neither team has a dominant goaltender that one would qualify as a game-changer (no offense meant to Culina or Popovich). Both teams struggled down the stretch with team chemistry issues. The tipping point for me is experience. The Rangers have the clear advantage there, especially on the defensive end. Guys like Logan Stanley and Austin McEneny, who won a Memorial Cup together with Windsor last year, should really help to stabilize things, even without Connor Hall. I also look for longtime Rangers like Mascherin or Connor Bunnaman (Philadelphia) to really step up offensively to get this team over the first round hump.

Prediction: As mentioned, I feel like Kitchener’s experience advantage will help them come out on top in this series. I also feel that they have a much better team defense approach that likely plays out better for success in the playoffs. Guelph has talent, but they play a very high risk game that, without a ton of playoff experience, could be their undoing. It will be close, but Kitchener in 6.

#3 - Sarnia Sting vs. #6 - Windsor Spitfires

Season Series: Sarnia leads 5-1

Michael DiPietro of the Windsor Spitfires. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: No offense meant to the rest of the Windsor Spitfires, but this match-up is about two things. The Sarnia offense (2nd best in the OHL) versus the goaltending of Michael DiPietro (Vancouver). The dynamic DiPietro is one of the few goaltenders in the OHL who is capable of stealing a series victory for his team. The Spitfires rebuilt, dealing off the majority of their veterans held over from their Memorial Cup victory last year, but decided to hang on to their star netminder for this reason. They battle hard in the offensive end behind the likes of Curtis Douglas (2018), Cole Purboo (2018), Cody Morgan (2019), Luke Boka, and Matthew MacDougall (2018). And they play smart in their own end thanks to Connor Corcoran (2018), Nathan Staios (2019), Grayson Ladd (2019), and Zach Shankar. But this team has zero NHL drafted players outside of DiPietro and are incredibly inexperienced.

Jordan Kyrou of the Sarnia Sting. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

The Sting, conversely, were one of the biggest buyers throughout this OHL season, bringing in talented veterans like Cam Dineen (Arizona), Jonathan Ang (Florida), and Michael Pezzetta (Montreal). The lifeblood of the team is Jordan Kyrou (St. Louis), the league’s leader in points per game this year and possibly the best offensive player in the OHL. He is currently zero for three in first round appearances and is likely to do everything in his power to finally reach the second round (and beyond). You could likely argue that overager Justin Fazio is the team’s second most important player in the series, especially considering that he has to match-up against DiPietro. The margin for error is slim.

One of Sarnia’s biggest strengths is on the powerplay where Kyrou, Adam Ruzicka (Calgary), and Drake Rymsha (Los Angeles) have a combined 34 powerplay goals this year. Problem is, Windsor takes among the least amount of penalties in the OHL so as long as Windsor can continue to stay out of the box, Sarnia is going to need to beat DiPietro 5 on 5. The question I have is, how will Windsor manage to score goals, at least enough goals to win this 7 game series? It will not be with the man advantage either (likely) as the Sting have the league’s top penalty killing unit. I am slightly worried about Sarnia’s inexperienced defense though, but that concern is more directed towards round two or three (if the Sting advance that far). Sarnia will need big guys like Ruzicka, Pezzetta, Jordan Ernst, and Hugo Leufvenius (2018) to crowd DiPietro’s space as much as possible and really make him uncomfortable. Shoot, shoot, and shoot some more. Windsor fans can tell you, sometimes the best way to beat Michael DiPietro is through sheer luck and bad bounces.

Prediction: As much as I want to predict a Windsor victory, I do not see it in the cards. DiPietro will steal a few games and he will make Sarnia sweat. But the offensive firepower of Sarnia, combined with the inexperience of Windsor’s defense is likely to give the Sting too many scoring chances for the Spitfires’ star netminder to handle. Sarnia in 6.

#4 - Owen Sound Attack vs. #5 - London Knights

Season Series: London leads 4-2

Evan Bouchard of the London Knights. Photo by Terry Wilson/OHL Images.

Analysis: As is usually the case, the 4/5 matchup in the Western Conference looks to be the closest match-up of the first round, and subsequently the most difficult to prognosticate. London traded off the vast majority of their big guns to retool to fight another day. Instead, the team played inspired hockey down the stretch led by a host of younger players eager to make their mark. When talking about London, we have to start with defenseman Evan Bouchard (2018), the lifeblood of the Knights. His 87 points are the highest by a blueliner since Ryan Ellis hit the 100 point mark in 2011. The speedy Alex Formenton (Ottawa) is also playing the best hockey of his OHL career thus far with 12 goals in 14 games to close out the regular season. And you cannot talk about London without mentioning how good the “kid” line of Liam Foudy (2018), Billy Moskal (2018), and Nathan Dunkley (2018) has been since the trade deadline. This trio was challenged to step up their games with increased ice time and they all responded accordingly.

Owen Sound Attack of the Ontario Hockey League. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Owen Sound, on the other hand, was expected to be one of the top teams in the OHL this year but struggled to keep their star players healthy all year and subsequently struggled to perform consistently. That is, until the last few months when they have been, arguably, the OHL’s best. This team is scary good when healthy and they are now finally healthy. They roll three outstanding scoring lines, including a top unit of Jonah Gadjovich (Vancouver), Kevin Hancock (2018), and Nick Suzuki (Vegas) that has been one of the OHL’s best over the last two seasons. They also have one of the OHL’s top offensive blueliners in Sean Durzi (2018), who if he did not get injured, likely could have challenged Bouchard for the defenceman scoring title. It is in net where Owen Sound has struggled this season as Olivier Lafreniere and Mack Guzda (2019) have battled to find consistency. No question, Owen Sound has to have their offense rolling to win because they are not going to win many 2-1 games.

So who has the advantage going into this match-up? Experience wise, the nod has to be given to Owen Sound...and by a wide margin. The Attack are returning the vast majority of a roster that lost in the Conference finals last season. The Knights are an extremely well coached team, but they are relying on a lot of rookies and sophomores in key roles and that can often prove to be a recipe for disaster in the postseason. The deciding factor in this series probably comes down to the goaltending. So long as Owen Sound can get at least adequate goaltending from one of Lafreniere or Guzda, they should win this series. But if their goaltending struggles and team is forced to constantly play catch-up, the series tips in London’s favor, a team with nothing to lose.

Prediction: I have to give the nod to Owen Sound here because now that they are fully healthy, they look like a tough team to stop. This is especially true for a team as inexperienced as London; even if they are extremely talented. The Attack can get the saves they need to win this one, even if London pushes them and makes them sweat. Owen Sound in 6

OHL Finals Prediction

When the field is finally narrowed down to two teams who battle it out for OHL supremacy, I expect those two teams to be the Kingston Frontenacs and the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds.

From the East I like Kingston for a couple reasons. The first is experience. As I already alluded to, they have a lot of players on that roster who have already won a Memorial Cup or OHL Championship (or both). That type of leadership goes a long way in the playoffs. The second is special teams play. The great Scotty Bowman always said combined special teams play was a great indicator of postseason success. Well the Fronts have the best powerplay in the league and the second best penalty kill. The third is goaltending. Jeremy Helvig is a veteran netminder who is about as consistent as they come. I have a ton of confidence in his ability to make saves when he needs to.

From the West, I like the Soo Greyhounds as they have looked about as dominant as anyone in the OHL has over the last few years. Their 116 points is the most since Barrie put up 116 in 2010. This team has it all. Special teams success. Good goaltending. Speed. Physicality. But most of all...depth. Drew Bannister’s players rarely seem to take a shift off and they rarely make mistakes with the puck. That composure at both ends of the ice makes them the favorite.

For the OHL Title, I am taking the Soo Greyhounds to win their first J. Ross Robertson Cup since they won back to back championships in the early 90ś.