NCAA – McKeen's Hockey

State of Hockey During the Global Pandemic

Mon, 18 Jan 2021 20:58:40 +0000

With the NHL finally underway, now is as good a time as any to run through the leagues the McKeen's Scouting team covers. We reached out to all members of our team to get quick run-downs of what is happening in rinks in their territories. In no particular order, here is what they sent.

Ontario – from Brock Otten

In Ontario, the concept and outlook of competitive hockey is looking quite bleak. Even with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators given the green light by the provincial government to play, junior and minor hockey has taken a backseat due to the climbing positive COVID case rate and the current province-wide lockdown. Due to this, many Ontario players have gone overseas to play, such as Brandt Clarke in Slovakia, and Brennan Othmann in Switzerland. The latest trend out West had top WHL players heading to the USHL to play and one has to wonder how long before we see some OHL players follow that same path.

Tier 2 hockey did manage to start their season in some capacity. The CCHL, OJHL, and GOJHL managed to start training camps and play in some exhibition games (depending on region and level of lockdown). However, the OHL has not yet begun, with the league having already pushed back their start date twice; it is currently on permanent hiatus with no known start date. The WHL has recently stated an intent and commitment to playing a shortened season and one has to wonder if the OHL will be far behind. What that season would look like remains to be seen. My best guess suggests it would involve some type of regional bubble, or mini tournament format like the QMJHL plans to adapt. Finances are currently the biggest hurdle as ownership groups are certainly likely to feel the crunch without fans in the seats. One thing is certain though, the province's top players will find a way to play hockey elsewhere if no plan comes to fruition. Losing players to the USHL is a future recruiting nightmare for the league in a battle that they are losing more than ever before.

Russia – from Viktor Fomich

At this point I think it can be said that hockey in Russia has learned how to live in the World of Pandemics (even though it obviously isn't easy), as hockey is up and running in the Russian leagues and you can already feel it's not too long until the start of the playoffs in March. Most of the prospects have already established themselves in their respective roles for this season with the only question remaining for the U20 WJC team's players: will they be able to bounce back after a rather disappointing result there? They are certainly expected to, so it will be interesting to follow them in their KHL and VHL teams.

As for the first-year draft-eligible players, most of the action is ongoing in the MHL, where majority of the prospects of that age play. Things are heading to the playoffs there too, but it should be kept in mind that if the U18 WJC will eventually happen, a lot of the top prospects will be released to the U18 National Team camp at that time. Speaking of top prospects, don't forget to at least occasionally check on the 2023 draft prospect Matvei Michkov — it might be early, but he looks pretty special so far.

Sweden – from Jimmy Hamrin

It was a tough decision for Swedish draft prospects last week. The Swedish hockey federation acknowledged that there will be no more junior hockey this season. That means the 12 to 20 games the teams have played until mid-November in the J20 Nationell (formerly named SuperElit) is all we will get to see from a large portion of the draft eligible prospects this season. The top three men’s leagues and the top women’s league will all continue to play without spectators and with cancelling of games if teams have an outbreak, which has made the standings and the scheduling a mess but there is no serious talk of cancelling the season like they did last spring.

Top ranked draft eligibles like Jesper Wallstedt, Simon Edvinsson, William Eklund, Fabian Lysell, Isak Rosén, Simon Robertsson, Oskar Olausson and so on play in the SHL right now, but only Wallstedt and Eklund have earned big roles on their respective team. The other named players here will be tougher to fully evaluate as they are only playing in limited roles. The depth prospects for the draft will look to get loaned out to lower leagues, but I suspect many of them will not play at all this spring. As for Sweden’s neighbors in Norway and Denmark, it is also only their top leagues that are still playing. The top league in Norway is on a temporary pause as of January 9^th due to the pandemic but there are still plans to finish the season.

Finland – from Marco Bombino

The leagues that operate under the Finnish Ice Hockey Federation were on hiatus during December 2020. However, the play has since resumed in many leagues in January, including the U20 SM-sarja, U18 SM-sarja and U16 SM-sarja. However, the COVID-19 situation varies in different regions in the country. In Southern Finland, many junior teams are not allowed to play at the moment due to the restrictions. Liiga, the top professional league in Finland, is currently running, however many Liiga games have been postponed recently, so the situation seems quite uncertain and unstable.

US, East – from Jashvina Shah

Hockey in the eastern U.S. has been shaky, at best, this year. The ECAC is down to just four active teams — Colgate, Clarkson, St. Lawrence and Quinnipiac, after the Ivy League schools decided to cancel all winter sports. RPI and Union also opted not to play this season. In the Hockey East conference, no teams opted out of the season. But even for the teams playing, the season has been filled with schedule changes, postponements, cancellations and delays as schools are dealing with positive cases on their teams. Boston University, for example, didn’t play a hockey game until January. Ivy League players have either transferred, opted back for juniors or headed down to a bubble in Tampa Bay for a chance to practice against each other.

New England Prep Schools have also been silent thus far this season, although at least a few are expected to begin their hockey campaigns in the upcoming month.

Czech Republic – from Derek O’Brien

As has been the case in most places in the world, the 2020-21 hockey season in the Czech Republic has been quite different. While it started in September in a relatively normal fashion, rising COVID cases forced a nationwide shutdown of all organized sports in mid-October. Following the implementation of strict hygienic measures, the Extraliga and second-tier Chance Liga restarted a few weeks later, but everything else – youth, junior and senior – remains paused.

Of course, all pro games since the restart have been played with no fans in attendance, and that is a shame because several players who played in North America last season – including recent World Juniors Lukas Parik (LA), Nick Malik, Jaromir Pytlik (NJ), Jan Mysak (MTL), Michal Teply (CHI), Simon Kubicek and Pavel Novak (MIN) – returned home. Due to lockdowns and quarantines, Mysak and Teply only played a handful of games and are now at NHL camps. Some drafted prospects who played a good portion of the season but have now returned to their NHL organizations include defenseman Filip Hronek and winger Filip Zadina (both DET) and winger David Kase (PHI) – who all performed exceptionally for their respective Extraliga clubs – as well as Radim Zohorna (PIT) and Lukas Jasek (VAN). Others who are remaining to finish the season include Jakub Lauko (BOS) and Lukas Rousek (BUF), the latter of whom has 23 points in 31 games for Sparta Prague.

Underage defensemen Stanislav Svozil (2021) and David Jiricek (2022) continue to play beyond their years, showing the poise they displayed against older opponents at the World Junior Championship.

Despite a tough winter COVID-wise for the country, the top two Czech hockey leagues continue on and seem to have a routine down that will see them finish on schedule. As for other levels, current government measures last until January 22, but expensive testing protocols means it’s unlikely we’ll see a restart before spring.

Germany – from Chapin Landvogt

As we rapidly approach mid-January, all of Germany’s most important pro and junior circuits are up and running. This is a very good thing for prospect watchers in these parts. Nonetheless, we would like to focus some attention on several undrafted Germans who just presented their wares to the international community at the WJC. The most notable was very young overage center Florian Elias, who we here at McKeen’s had ranked 145th in last fall’s draft rankings. We might add that you’ll have found nary a publication out there with Elias among the top 200 prospects, much less the top 150.

At the WJC, the undersized terrier, who admittedly lacks an extra skating gear, proved to be the perfect complement to drafted wingers Tim Stutzle and JJ Peterka, assuming plenty of the defensive duties, creating space, and finding ways to get some pucks to his highly touted linemates. His toolkit included an underappreciated wrist shot, accurate passes, deceptive weaving abilities, and strong core strength allowing him to not only resist heavy checks, but impressively push back in the process.

Nonetheless, his intangibles seem to be what made him one of the tournament’s most effective overall players. Elias presented a highly effective presence in both the slot and the net front. He hounded the opposition on the forecheck, often forcing deadly turnovers. He stepped up to the plate to create timely offense when his team needed it most. Overall, he was highly effective on second and third efforts. His entire package seemed built around getting things done - and doing so at the highest possible level of junior hockey, of which he had no prior experience.

Questions will abound about his pro prospects due to his size and lack of speed, if nothing else, but he has since returned to the Mannheim Adler of the DEL with nine WJC points in tow (plus a team high -2 among players who suited up for all five games) and has already worked his way into action as the Adler’s second line center with former Coyote property Matthias Plachta and former Calgary Flame David Wolf. No points yet, but Elias has been in the middle of several outstanding offensive opportunities, continuing to build upon that “little engine that could” vibe he just keeps emitting.

WJC teammate Lucas Münzenberger also used the tournament to soundly make his way into the scouts’ notebooks. The 6-2”, 198-pound defenseman took part in his team’s opening face-off and basically never looked back. Having only just turned 18 in November, Lucas showed immense readiness to play a heady, physical game, and logged an enormous amount of ice time with just under 22 minutes per game. For those in the know, the package of size, skating, and reading the game, as well as some very capable first passes out of the zone, is exactly the type of thing any organization wants to see out of such a young and raw prospect with the potential to be a late round pick, especially one few have seen before this event.

Like Elias, Münzenberger has never come close to playing at this level of junior hockey, having missed out on a U18 opportunity last spring when the worlds were cancelled. In fact, due to his college commitment (University of Vermont, 22-23), he’s only seen action in Germany’s DNL junior league, meaning he hasn’t gotten a sniff of pro play there unlike fellow German blueline minute munchers (all overagers) Max Glötzl, Simon Gnyp, and Mario Zimmermann. More on each of them in upcoming reports (as well as the gobs of U19 players who have been showing up in line-ups across the DEL, DEL2, and Oberliga), but for now, you can rest assured that Münzenberger is going to be watched closely by NHL scouts from here on out in this, his initial draft year.

Switzerland – from Chapin Landvogt

While league hockey in Switzerland is roughly fully operational, this past WJC was not one to write home about for Team Switzerland. Had it not been for a furious final 10 minutes against Team Germany, the Swiss may have only scored one goal altogether. In total, it had five in four games and not a single point as a team, getting shut out on two occasions. This did not bode particularly well for a few Swiss prospects, many of whom came into the tournament needing to show just what the scouting community can expect of them. The only players on the team to register multiple points were the draft eligible forward Dario Allenspach and defenseman Noah Meier, both of whom will still be 18 by next summer’s draft and are playing pro hockey back home. The former also displayed some nice hockey sense and gumption throughout the four games and may garner further attention depending on what he continues to do for Zug Academy in the 2nd tier SL pro league, where he currently has six points in 17 games. He has also played several games for Zug in the top tier NL. His name bears watching.

Speaking of pro play, mid-sized defenseman Janis Moser is up for an NHL draft for the final time, turning 21 shortly before next July. A bit like was the case with the New York Islanders’ Sebastian Aho several years back, there are some in the scouting community who have been surprised that Moser hasn’t at least been taken on a flyer. He is in his third full season of NL play and has appeared for Switzerland at several WJCs and a U18 Worlds. The mobile defender is looking to give NHL teams plenty to think about this season, currently sporting 5-14- 19 and +6 in 23 games.

In the junior circuit, one of the clearly most interesting players has been half-Thai, half-Swiss Liekit Reichle, a 6-1”, 183-pound forward who will be turning 18 in just a little over a week. Despite his youth, he has already dressed for five SL games this season (GC Küsnacht) and is second overall in scoring in Switzerland’s top U20 circuit. There, he has accumulated 10 goals and 41 points in just 26, good for second overall in a league that features plenty of players several years older. We would also like to point out that in addition to Swiss overager Simon Knak (captain of the U20 squad), each of Dman Brian Zanetti, forward Attilio Biasca, and forward Lorenzo Canonica are scheduled to play for CHL junior clubs at some point this season.

Slovakia – from Matej Deraj

Despite the country being in a lockdown, both Slovak professional leagues are still running. The youth competitions and amateur leagues are currently stopped and are not expected to return. On the other hand, Tipos Extraliga (top tier league) is currently in the middle of the regular season. Having been postponed at the beginning, the games are being played on newly set dates. The league has dealt with COVID outbreaks in all teams and quarantine quite well.

There have been very few, close to zero in fact, positive cases in recent months. The second-tier league (I. liga, also called SHL – Slovak Hockey League) is being played as well. Because of youth competitions in the other countries are being cancelled or postponed, I. liga has welcomed a solid number of new additions. An OHL trio consisting of Donovan Sebrango (Red Wings), Keean Washkurak (Blues) and Tag Bertuzzi (undrafted) has most recently joined HK Levice. Tag´s father, very well-known former NHLer Todd Bertuzzi, is in Slovakia as well.

One of the main candidates for the #1 overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, right-shot defenseman Brandt Clarke, also unexpectedly went to the Slovak Extraliga. Alongside his brother Graeme (a Devils prospect), they have both joined HC Nove Zamky. However, they are still getting used to the speed and size of the older players. Brandt is scoreless after six games, while Graeme has recorded one assist in five matches. Five Canadians are doing better in Liptovsky Mikulas: Tyler Tullio (Oilers), Allan McShane and William Portokalis are close to being point-per-game. Out of the local prospects, 2022 eligible defenseman Simon Nemec continues to impress the most. He played his best game a few days ago, scored a pretty one-timer goal and added two assists in a 5-2 win for HK Nitra against DVTK. Martin Chromiak (Kings), Filip Mesar (2022) and some other guys have returned from the World Juniors and they are back in the lineup as well.

WHL/AJHL – from Vince Gibbons

After months of negative news this past weekend was a ray of sunshine for Junior hockey in Western Canada. The WHL announced its intention to play a minimum 24 game season to start as appropriate with various local Health and Government guidelines and support. Since the cancelation of the Memorial Cup last year Junior hockey has fallen on hard times. Covid-19 has affected the WHL’s four provinces, and the US division dramatically, and at different times making it very difficult to maintain a positive outlook for a season and yet now there is some light. There is a still a long journey to get to a potential late February start date but having something positive on the hockey horizon feels good. Byron Hackett, a local reporter, recently talked with Red Deer Rebels Owner and GM Brent Sutter, which provided some fascinating insight into what is going on behind the scenes, especially the acknowledgement that they knew they were not going to be able to start up with fans from the beginning.

Alberta (Red Deer where I am based) has been one of the more impacted provinces in Canada when it comes to Covid-19. Initially, the Health and Government Authorities were on board for provincial games allowing the WHL (modified to in-province games only) and the AJHL to begin but in the weeks leading up into Christmas a severe spike in cases forced further Government restrictions and the AJHL season was put on pause after just getting started. That small start mattered, particularly for the players. A number of WHL players with higher level aspirations were released short term from their WHL clubs to join various AJHL, SJHL and MJHL teams. This enabled a number of prospects to find ice time, competitive practices, and even a chance to play some preseason game and regular season games. A quick look at the AJHL scoring lead shows a lot of familiar WHL names, with Matt Savoie, Spencer Moe, and Dylan Guenther all in the top ten of the frozen leader board right now. The increased competition for spots didn’t hurt two intriguing AJHL regulars either as both Breck McKinley and Corson Ceulemans torched the league in a very small sample size (four & two games respectively).

Despite the limited game action in Alberta so far this season there is plenty of video (Thanks to Instat Hockey) and lot of notes from previous seasons it would be misleading to send out a ranked list at this point. Instead, here is an alphabetical list of guys that I can’t wait to see again, hopefully by early March. Not everyone on this list is a first-round talent, but each of these guys does something that is intriguing and I am curious about how much improvement and development there has been in the near 10 months since they played a competitive game. I am also fascinated to see if someone comes out of left field who has taken full advantage of the extended break and committed to improving enough to give them a chance at being drafted.

Below stats from shortened 2019-2020 season

Carson Lambos, Winnipeg ICE (57GP-8G-24-32PTs-32PIMs)

Cole Sillinger, Medicine Hat Tigers (48GP-22G-31A-53Pts-22PIMs) – since moved to Sioux Falls, of the USHL

Colton Dach, Saskatoon Blades (62GP-11G-18A-29Pts-45PIMs)

Connor Roulette, Seattle Thunderbirds (54GP-19G-20A-39Pts-21PIMs) *played 3 MJHL games in 2020

Corson Ceulemans, AJHL Brooks Bandits (44GP-5G-30A-55Pts-80PIMs) *played 5 AJHL games in 2020

Dru Krebs, Medicine Hat Tigers (55GP-3G-10A-13Pts-30PIMs) *played 1 AJHL game in 2020

Dylan Guenther, Edmonton Oil Kings (58GP-26G-33A-59Pts-22PIMs) *played 4 AJHL games in 2020

Eric Alarie, Moose Jaw Warriors (61GP-7G-14A-21Pts-4PIMs) *played 1 MJHL game in 2020

Jayden Grubbe, Red Deer Rebels (57GP-6G-23A-29Pts-46PIMs)

Logan Stankoven, Kamloops Blazers (59GP-29G-19A-48Pts-10PIMs)

Nolan Allen, Prince Albert Raiders (58GP-2G-6A-8Pts-25PIMs) *played 5 games in SJHL in 2020

Ryder Korczak, Moose Jaw Warriors (62GP-18G-49A-67Pts-16PIMs)

Sebastian Cossa, Edmonton Oil Kings (33GP-21W-6L-3T-2.23GAA-.921Sv%)

Zack Stringer, Lethbridge Hurricanes (48GP-11G-23A-34Pts-22PIMs) *played 4 games in the AJHL in 2020

BCHL – from Arlo Schulz

It has been a frustrating state of events for the BCHL, with the league intending to play a full season without fans in the building. However, the health authorities in the province of British Columbia scotched that scenario when case levels rose sharply in the fall. The province had been one of the most relaxed in the country in terms of restrictions during the first wave of the pandemic but reacted to the rising numbers by putting a moratorium on contact sports in the province. As a result, the BCHL has been forced to continue pushing back the start of the campaign.

The latest target date for return to play is February 8th, should the current sports ban be lifted. The BCHL commissioner has insisted that the league is determined to play this season. Current restrictions do thankfully allow for individual on-ice skills and drills and teams have been busy preparing and keeping players in shape. Some teams played pre-season games before the restrictions hit; the Penticton Vees were supposed to host this year's Centennial Cup and won a mini-tournament against other Okanagan-based BCHL teams.

Several players (notably including Ayrton Martino and Jack Bar) left their BCHL team to go play in the USHL this season; the deadline for this transfer just passed so there shouldn't be any more defections. The expectation is for a very short regular season to still be completed in some fashion, followed by playoffs if possible, giving scouts some limited viewings of 2021-eligible players. Whether those viewings will be conducted via video (likely) or live attendance at the rink (hopefully) remains to be seen.

NCHC – from Tom Dorsa

In October, the National Collegiate Hockey Association unveiled its plans for the 2020-21 season, beginning the pursuit of the Penrose Cup with the implementation of “The Pod,” the secure zone in Omaha, Nebraska in which its eight member schools played from December 1-20 while schools were finishing fall semesters.

Playing 38 games in 21 days at Baxter Arena, the NCHC provided its programs, players, and fans with a leg to stand on, a start to a season with an end hopefully better than the last campaign. But with “The Pod” wrapped up and programs situating themselves back to their respective campuses around the American North and Northwest, the NCHC enters the unknown -- and they will have just as many fires to put out as the rest of the leagues around the game.

While the geographics of conference play has been made easier with the introduction of the West and East divisions, new to the 2020-21 season, the conference has already had to shift around scheduling of games, including a large slate of heavyweight matchups such as North Dakota vs Denver and Minnesota-Duluth vs St. Cloud State being delayed.

While COVID case numbers skyrocket in the United States, the NCHC has enacted a strict contract tracing and quarantine regimen for any type of situation. Hockey in early 2021 without the implications of the pandemic is impossible, but the conference has done well in terms of keeping players and team staff safe while ensuring competitive integrity.

And from a perspective of competition, the NCHC is red hot. Prior to the abrupt cancellations of conference tournaments and the NCAA Frozen Four, teams in the conference were preparing for potential lengthy runs through the postseason. North Dakota (3), Minnesota-Duluth (5), Denver (6), and Western Michigan (16) were all nationally recognized in the final USCHO rankings. The NCHC has taken home each of the last four NCAA national championships.

These schools are truly incredible and have a long history of running the table in college hockey. These young players deserve this. Safely and responsibly, let’s rejoice.

QMJHL – from Benoit Belanger

The QMJHL is fortunate to be the only one of the three Canadian junior leagues (CHL) to have played games this season. In principle, the QMJHL will be back next week from January 22. The league has decided to operate with mini bubbles which it calls "protected environments". During the first weekend (January 22 to 24), four cities (Drummondville, Rimouski, Chicoutimi and Shawinigan) were chosen and will host two other teams who will each play two games in three days. So, in total, we are talking about seven bubbles in four different cities, which will allow the 12 teams in Quebec territory to play games, eight games for each team.
For the Maritimes, we are still awaiting a decision to be made. The league hopes to resume a regular schedule from January 22 for those teams.

In addition, the league announced a new playoff format for this season, that will allow all 18 teams to take part. Regarding the playoff format, the QMJHL also indicated that the regular season standings will be determined by percentage of points collected, as it is already ensured that all teams will not play the same number of games. However, it is the format of the playoffs that will be particularly new, as the number of teams (18) is not a multiple of (nor divisible by) four (2, 4, 8 or 16).

Remember that the teams are divided into three divisions of six teams each (West, East, Maritimes).

In the first round, the teams that finished the season ranked three through six in each of the three divisions will compete for the right to then face in the second round the teams ranked first and second who have each benefited from a bye. For the next round, in the Province of Quebec, the weaker team remaining in the East Division will face the best in the West Division, and vice versa for the other series. In the Maritimes, it will be a traditional division final.

After that, an unusual procedure will be introduced, namely a round robin between the three remaining teams. They will compete twice, and a ranking will be established. The top two teams in this one will face off in a best of seven, or best of five final if needed.

The duration of the previous rounds will be established no later than April 1.

The trades period currently in progress in the QMJHL is extended in an exceptional allowance, until January 25. The most active for the moment have definitely been the Val-d'Or Foreurs. They added forward Nathan Légaré (2019 Pittsburg Penguins 3^rd round pick) and defender Jordan Spence (2019 Los Angeles King 4^th round pick), who will join Jacob Pelletier and Justin Ducharme, both acquired in the draft. Otherwise, among the other big names that have changed address, note Shawn Element who is now a Tigres de Victoriavilles, Isaac Belliveau acquired by the Gatineau Olympiques and Justin Bergeron who will wear the colors of the Shawinigan Cataractes.

AHL – from Shaiyena Cote

In a season unlike any other, where sports have had to take a back seat to the bigger issue of Covid-19, many sports leagues and seasons have already been put on hold. The American Hockey League is no exception and had been placed on hold with simply a hopeful start date. That hopeful start date has now turned into a very real and fast approaching February 5th start date that has been approved and ready to go by league commissioners. That being said, there are a few notable changes that will be made for the 2021 AHL season.

Firstly, the season will be shortened due to the late start date to only 26 games and a new division will be formed amongst the Canadian teams in agreement with border rules. Therefore, in the AHL Eastern Conference there will now be three divisions; the Atlantic, Canadian and the North division. More structural changes also include the relocation of certain AHL teams for the season, such as the Ontario Reign (LA), San Diego Gulls (Anaheim), Binghamton Devils (New Jersey) and the Providence Bruins (Boston) to their new homes in El Segundo, CA, Irvine, CA, Newark, NJ, and Marlborough, MA, respectively. There are also three teams that have pulled out of the season all together; the Charlotte Checkers (FLA), Milwaukee Admirals (NASH) and Springfield Thunderbirds (STL) have agreed to not play the season and so far, the Predators have elected to send their players to the AHL Chicago Wolves to join the Carolina Hurricanes’ prospects for the season, combining to form a mixed Chicago Wolves roster. The Panthers have chosen to affiliate the Springfield Thunderbirds with Tampa Bay and send their players to join the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch for the season. St. Louis will be sending its prospects to play with the Vancouver AHL affiliate in Utica, New York.

Along with league and structural changes at the AHL level, the NHL has also seen its fair share of what do we do moments. For health and safety and contingency reasons the NHL has adopted a Taxi Squad system for the 2021 season, essentially going from a 23-man roster to a 29-man roster with six extra players travelling and practicing with the team who are available to play in any situation. With potentially six more players moved up to their NHL squads, that leaves some very important and heavily weighted room for some of the AHL rosters that have CHL eligible prospects. So far, the QMJHL is set to get back to their bubble running format a week from now once the players have finished Christmas break quarantine but where do the NHL prospects that were set to return to their OHL and WHL teams go when there are no start dates for either league in place yet? The answer is that they will most likely be seeing some development time up with their NHL farm teams for now until further notice. Look for some young faces to potentially make their professional debuts this AHL season and for the benefitting major junior clubs to be able to up their competition level when the entire CHL gets rolling again.

Despite the fact that there are many new changes to come about, hockey fans and hockey people alike can rejoice at the fact that, yes indeed, hockey is back.

Big Ten – from Ryan Wagman

Aside from some changes to the usual non-conference slate of games, the seven schools of the Big Ten conference (Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) are playing a relatively normal schedule for the 2020-21 season.

To replace the lost competition against various out-of-conference schools, the conference has welcomed Arizona State to play four games against each team – with all of those games occurring at the home rink of the regular Big Ten school. It is unknown if this arrangement might lead to a permanent spot in the Big Ten for ASU going forward, even if such an arrangement has been speculated before.

The teams are all now slightly past their respective halfway points, having played 13 or 14 games each. After a few dark years, the Minnesota Golden Gophers have been heads and shoulders better than all the other schools. At the other end, Michigan State has still not been able to escape the basement, while Ohio State and Penn State have similarly struggled to overcome some critical graduations. Arizona State has played respectably, but the still fresh NCAA Division I entrant has a ways to go to truly compete with Big Ten programs.

The regular season is scheduled to run through early March and the conference tournament is scheduled for March 18-20.

In other words, there is still plenty of time to catch the three huge 2021 draft prospects from Michigan – Owen Power, Matty Beniers, and Kent Johnson – before the strange season draws to a close.

USHL – from Ryan Wagman

It only took a pandemic, but in the 2020-21 season, the USHL has the top collection of draft eligible talent in North America. It wasn’t without bumps, of course. Before the season even started, both the Madison Capitols and the Cedar Rapids RoughRiders were forced to shut up shop for the season. The Capitols were not allowed to play due to local county restrictions against such gatherings. The RoughRiders had to skip this season due to a wholly unrelated event, that being the derecho which tore through Central Iowa last August, which practically destroyed their home arena, along with many other local buildings. Outside of those two AWOL franchises, the biggest changes to this year have been the lack of a season-opening tournament in Pittsburgh or a mid-season All Star game. No matter, the games go on.

The remaining 14 teams have been playing since early November, split into a six team Eastern Conference and an eight team Western Conference. As per usual in recent seasons, the Chicago Steel have been running away with the league, with only three regulation losses in their first 19 games.

Attendance rules vary per team, depending on local and/or state regulations. I am based in the Chicago area and the Steel are limited to scouts and media at their games. In the bulk of games I have attended so far, I have estimated between 15-40 people in the stands.

As alluded to in some of the other sections above, the USHL this year has been augmented by top talents from various CHL or Canadian Jr. A leagues, with a new influx of talent joining the league since the end of the WJC. The lack of hockey in the Ivy League schools, for instance, has allowed drafted players including John Farincci (Muskegon), Henry Thrun (Dubuque), and Jack Malone (Youngstown) to spend some time in the USHL, the first two of those three as a means of preparation for their time with the American WJC roster. Uncertainty in the WHL and BCHL has brought in more talent, including drafted players Bear Hughes (Fargo), Cross Hanas (Lincoln), and Keinan Draper (Omaha). Intriguing 2021 eligibles who have lately joined the league from the BCHL include Ayrton Marino (Omaha) and Jack Bar (Chicago), with WHL transplants including potential first rounder Cole Sillinger (Sioux Falls), Jack O’Brien (Lincoln) and James Stefan (Lincoln).

The USHL regular season is scheduled to run through April 24, barring any addition schedule re-arrangements, whether due to the pandemic, or other, more prosaic reasons.

NCAA: Dynasties in Decline – Boston College and Boston University concerning trend

Jashvina Shah — Wed, 27 Nov 2019 15:45:19 +0000

Last year was the first time both Boston College and Boston University missed the NCAA tournament since the 1987-88 season — just three years into Hockey East’s existence. In 2018-19, the Eagles and Terriers posted records of 14-22-3 and 16-18-4, respectively. The Eagles also won just one non-conference game.

Traditionally, BU and BC have been top programs in college hockey. They have each won five national championships and have made a combined 47 Frozen Four appearances. In the two-decade span beginning in 1987-88, the Eagles won four national championships, made 20 NCAA tournaments, reached the Frozen Four 13 times and played in eight national championship games. The Terriers won two national championships, and made 21 NCAA tournament appearances, which included nine Frozen Fours and six national championship games.

BU and BC have long swapped off decades of dominance. BU dominated in the 90s, the Eagles dominated from 2008-2014. But for both programs, in addition to other powerhouses like Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Maine, to be struggling at the same time, is unprecedented.

This “decline” of powerhouse programs is more than a one-off bad season - it’s a trend.

So what’s happening? And can it be fixed?

Yes, and no.

Teams like BU and BC are built a certain way. They recruit the top players in their class, like Jack Eichel, Noah Hanifin, Joel Farabee or Spencer Knight. These players usually arrive as true freshmen (often from the National Team Development Program). They are thus usually some of the youngest freshmen in the country, since most college hockey freshmen are on the older side.

There are two side effects of recruiting true freshmen who are also the best players in their class:

They are young.
They tend to leave early.

1+2 = Teams that recruit top prospects in their class generally end up with a large turnover at the end of the season. As more and more players leave earlier and earlier, teams sometimes have to bring in replacement players into college hockey who are not yet ready for college hockey. (Take St. Louis Blues draft pick Sam Kurker, for example. Kurker was originally meant to stay in junior hockey for an extra year, but too many unexpected early departures forced BU to bring him into college hockey a year earlier. He wasn’t ready and after contributing a mere six points in 47 games over a season and a half, he returned to the USHL)

More importantly, this means teams are unable to form the consistency needed to be successful in college hockey.

From 2014-15 to 2019-20, the Eagles and Terriers have ranked first and second with the youngest teams in college hockey, always averaging less than 21 years of age. This is an average, so it includes players of all classes — freshmen, sophomores, juniors and seniors. This means that out of 20 players on the team, the average is less than 21 years of age, even though juniors and seniors would most likely be 21 and older.

This is a result of the increase in turnover. The more players leave, the more players you have to recruit and it usually results in large incoming freshmen classes. (Note: Prior to last year, if players wanted to transfer, they needed to request permission from their team. Now players do not have to seek permission and can enter the NCAA “transfer portal.” Players transferring still must sit out the mandatory one-year waiting period barring special circumstances.)

Here is a list of both school’s early departures, by season:

2015-16:

BC: Michael Matheson, Noah Hanafin

BU: Jack Eichel*

2016-17:

BC: Zach Sanford, Alex Tuch, Miles Wood, Thatcher Demko

BU: No key early departures

2017-18:

BC: Colin White

BU: Jordan Greenway, Brady Tkachuk

2018-19:

BC: No key early departures

BU: Joel Farabee, Dante Fabbro, Shane Bowers Chad Krys

(This is only a list of early departures and doesn’t take into account graduating seniors, which also factors into the high turnover rate.)

*Jack Eichel was the only key early departure, but other key players (Evan Rodrigues and Matt O’Connor) graduated.

Teams have had players leaving early for a while. So why is this a problem now?

Players are leaving earlier and non-traditional schools with smaller budgets have figured out how to leverage recruiting. They have started recruiting older, more mature players and have a better balance of upper-echelon players and three or four-year players. They have also been recruiting players from previously under-recruited areas, such as how Connecticut recruits from the Czech Republic. Probably the biggest factor, though, is coaching.

Here are the past national champions and winning coaches:

2019: Minnesota Duluth beat UMass (Scott Sandelin)

2018: Minnesota Duluth beat Notre Dame (Scott Sandelin)

2017: Denver beat Minnesota Duluth (Jim Montgomery)

2016: North Dakota beat Quinnipiac (Brad Berry)

2015: Providence beat Boston University (Nate Leaman)

2014: Union beat Minnesota (Rick Bennett)

2013: Yale beat Quinnipiac (Keith Allain)

Not only do you need a good coach, good players and continuity, but you also need experience. In college hockey, veteran presence does matter. Unlike the NHL, the season is short, and the NCAA tournament uses a one-and-done format, so players don’t have time to struggle one game and improve the next. Having players who have had Frozen Four experience in the past is, as Sandelin said, the one thing you can’t teach.

Minnesota-Duluth, Denver, North Dakota and Union all had players on their teams who had previously played in a Frozen Four. In 2018, 2017 and 2016, the champion had played in the Frozen Four the previous year.

Of all the recent seasons, 2015 showed just how much experience matters. The Terriers fielded the youngest team in the country at an average of 20 years and 169 days. When BU let in that odd, fluke goal, they were unable to recover. That inexperience was visible on the ice, and it kept BU from bouncing back.

So…

These powerhouse teams are struggling now because they are not recruiting the right players anymore. They are aiming for the best players, but the best players aren’t always the ones you need to make a successful team. These programs are struggling to find the balance between elite players, good players, leadership players and players who will stay for three-four years.

The other reason, for some of these teams, is coaching. While Jerry York is one of the greatest coaches of all time, he may not be the best option anymore. Because when you’re still fielding a talented team, and you’re not making the NCAA tournament, that comes down to coaching. And for BU, David Quinn was excellent at developing players but not as good at coaching them to win. So far, Albie O’Connell hasn’t looked like the answer, either.

Can they fix this?

Like I said. Yes, and no.

Yes, because the solution is simple. No, because it will be hard to get traditional powerhouse programs to make the necessary changes.

Ultimately, coaching and recruiting have always been crucial to success. You need both things to create sustained success. Take Minnesota-Duluth, for example. The Bulldogs have found a mix of talented players and also three/four-year players who can contribute both on and off the scoresheet. And they have one of the best coaches in the country in Scott Sandelin. They have made three consecutive Frozen Fours and became the first team to win back-to-back championships in over a decade. And that success has helped to increase the amount of time top players are staying on campus, as we see in the continued presence of two-time champions Dylan Samberg and Scott Perunovich, both of whom have had chances to turn pro and decided against it.

Teams like BC and BU, and even Michigan and Minnesota, can recruit almost anyone they want. They have the facilities, the atmosphere, the commitment to hockey and the tradition. So, it’s not if they can or can’t recruit. It’s about who they are choosing to recruit.

That said, because of financial contributions, college hockey teams can be heavily influenced by alumni. It will not be easy to convince teams like BU and BC to forgo recruiting every elite player in the country in favor of “lesser,” non-NHL draft pick talent and three/four-year players. These programs are traditional, and because of that they are stuck using a system that doesn’t work anymore.

Think of DC and Marvel comics. DC was the best comic on the block. Marvel was second-rate but they were willing to adapt and change, while DC wasn’t. Stan Lee listened to his consumers. He gave them what they want, and now Marvel is faring better than DC.

Times change, and if you don’t adapt, you will fail.

The teams that have understood this, teams who struggled recruiting the top tier players, learned to find older players and other leagues. Traditional programs won’t do that, or, at least, they haven’t yet. In fact, the Big Ten tried imposing an age limit by banning 21-year-old freshmen from playing college hockey. (Recruiting players at younger ages wasn’t the answer, either. It just leads to more uncertainty and decommitments on both sides.)

Remember: the object of college hockey isn’t to get the best players or even develop the best players (although the second part does matter when it comes to recruiting.) The object is to win, and that can be a much different formula than just recruiting the most elite players.

As Herb Brooks said (at least in Miracle):

“You don’t have enough talent to win on talent alone.”

Prospect Pipeline Tracker – Final Edition Mar 17, 2013

Gus Katsaros — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 15:27:03 +0000

Here are the updated prospect stats as of Mar 17, 2013. This will end the Prospect Pipeline Tracker as my original intention was to follow the CHL seasons.

Thanks for following along.

The compilation consists of drafted prospects playing North American leagues in the AHL, ECHL, member leagues of CHL (OHL, QMJHL, WHL).

For an explanation on coverage, see this post here

The first drafted prospects by NHL team spreadsheet had grown a little too large and I was having trouble adding new sheets. To avoid any more issues, I just created a new document with a continuation from Feb 2013 onward.

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team:
Drafted Prospects By Team

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team2:
Drafted Prospects By Team

Draft eligible '95-born update:
'95 Draft Eligible players

Some players are highlighted to indicate they were born late in the year before January 1, 1995 and to point out players scoring above a point-per-game clip.

Follow the McKeen's team on Twitter:
@KatsHockey
@mckeenshockey

Prospect Pipeline Tracker Mar 10, 2013

Gus Katsaros — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 13:28:45 +0000

Here are the updated prospect stats as of Mar 10, 2013.

The compilation consists of drafted prospects playing North American leagues in the AHL, ECHL, member leagues of CHL (OHL, QMJHL, WHL).

For an explanation on coverage, see this post here

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team:
Drafted Prospects By Team

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team2:
Drafted Prospects By Team

Draft eligible '95-born update:
'95 Draft Eligible players

Some players are highlighted to indicate they were born late in the year before January 1, 1995 and to point out players scoring above a point-per-game clip.

Follow the McKeen's team on Twitter:
@KatsHockey
@mckeenshockey

Prospect Pipeline Tracker Mar 3, 2013

Gus Katsaros — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 05:36:05 +0000

Here are the updated prospect stats as of Mar 3, 2013.

The compilation consists of drafted prospects playing North American leagues in the AHL, ECHL, member leagues of CHL (OHL, QMJHL, WHL).

For an explanation on coverage, see this post here

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team:
Drafted Prospects By Team

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team2:
Drafted Prospects By Team

Draft eligible '95-born update:
'95 Draft Eligible players

Some players are highlighted to indicate they were born late in the year before January 1, 1995 and to point out players scoring above a point-per-game clip.

Follow the McKeen's team on Twitter:
@KatsHockey
@mckeenshockey

Prospect Pipeline Tracker Feb 25, 2013

Gus Katsaros — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 05:26:44 +0000

Here are the updated prospect stats as of Feb 25, 2013.

The compilation consists of drafted prospects playing North American leagues in the AHL, ECHL, member leagues of CHL (OHL, QMJHL, WHL).

For an explanation on coverage, see this post here

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team:
Drafted Prospects By Team

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team2:
Drafted Prospects By Team

Draft eligible '95-born update:
'95 Draft Eligible players

Some players are highlighted to indicate they were born late in the year before January 1, 1995 and to point out players scoring above a point-per-game clip.

Follow the McKeen's team on Twitter:
@KatsHockey
@mckeenshockey

Prospect Pipeline Tracker Feb 18, 2013

Gus Katsaros — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 14:44:36 +0000

Here are the updated prospect stats as of Feb 18, 2013.

The compilation consists of drafted prospects playing North American leagues in the AHL, ECHL, member leagues of CHL (OHL, QMJHL, WHL).

For an explanation on coverage, see this post here

The first drafted prospects by NHL team spreadsheet has grown a little too large and I was having trouble adding new sheets. To avoid any more issues, I just created a new document with a continuation from Feb 2013 onward.

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team:
Drafted Prospects By Team

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team2:
Drafted Prospects By Team

Draft eligible '95-born update:
'95 Draft Eligible players

Some players are highlighted to indicate they were born late in the year before January 1, 1995 and to point out players scoring above a point-per-game clip.

Follow the McKeen's team on Twitter:
@KatsHockey
@mckeenshockey

Prospect Pipeline Tracker Feb 10, 2013

Gus Katsaros — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 06:31:53 +0000

Here are the updated prospect stats as of Feb 10, 2013.

The compilation consists of drafted prospects playing North American leagues in the AHL, ECHL, member leagues of CHL (OHL, QMJHL, WHL).

For an explanation on coverage, see this post here

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team:
Drafted Prospects By Team

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team2:
Drafted Prospects By Team

Draft eligible '95-born update:
'95 Draft Eligible players

Some players are highlighted to indicate they were born late in the year before January 1, 1995 and to point out players scoring above a point-per-game clip.

Follow the McKeen's team on Twitter:
@KatsHockey
@mckeenshockey

Prospect Pipeline Tracker Feb 03, 2013

Gus Katsaros — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 14:43:36 +0000

Here are the updated prospect stats as of Feb 03, 2013.

The compilation consists of drafted prospects playing North American leagues in the AHL, ECHL, member leagues of CHL (OHL, QMJHL, WHL).

For an explanation on coverage, see this post here

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team:
Drafted Prospects By Team

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team2:
Drafted Prospects By Team

Draft eligible '95-born update:
'95 Draft Eligible players

Some players are highlighted to indicate players born late in the year before January 1, 1995 and to point out players scoring above a point-per-game clip.

Follow the McKeen's team on Twitter:
@KatsHockey
@mckeenshockey

Prospect Pipeline Tracker Jan 28, 2013

Gus Katsaros — Mon, 28 Jan 2013 16:13:14 +0000

Here are the updated prospect stats as of Jan 28, 2013.

Drafted prospects playing North American leagues in the AHL, ECHL, member leagues of CHL (OHL, QMJHL, WHL).

For an explanation on coverage, see this post here

First the Drafted Prospects By NHL Team:
Drafted Prospects By Team

Draft eligible '95-born update:
'95 Draft Eligible players

Some players are highlighted to indicate players born late in the year before January 1, 1995 and to point out players scoring above a point-per-game clip.

Follow the McKeen's team on Twitter:
@KatsHockey
@mckeenshockey