NHL Playoffs – McKeen's Hockey

2024 NHL PLAYOFFS: CULLEN – Fantasy Playoff Pool Strategies and Advice

Scott Cullen — Fri, 19 Apr 2024 19:35:19 +0000

Left wing Zach Hyman (18) is congratulated by Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

One of the great features of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is getting involved in playoff pools, the opportunity to start fresh after the conclusion of the regular season.

The challenge for most playoff pools is to get players on teams that will advance the deepest into the postseason, because the more games available to your players, the better chance that they will produce points.

Of course, Connor McDavid will be expected to score more on a per-game basis than Ryan Reaves, but it is a combined source of value, with a player’s production along with their expected games played that leads to playoff pool success.

STRATEGIES FOR PLAYOFF POOLS

Because the playoffs are shorter, with fewer teams, there are different strategies required to build a winning team. A lot of these factors are going to depend on the size of your league and any particular rule requirements.

Sometimes those unique rules can make the league especially fun, but they also have the potential to change priorities and what may or may not be a reasonable approach. Do you need to take a rookie? Does your roster require two defencemen? All of these factors need to be taken into account.

Aside from those unique requirements, though, here are some strategies that tend to pay off when drafting players for a Stanley Cup playoff pool.

DIVERSIFY

While it might be tempting to put all of your eggs in one basket and, say, take six Carolina Hurricanes, there comes a point at which going all-in on one team offers diminishing returns. Assuming that you can’t get every single top scorer from a team that is considered a contender, it will make sense to spread your picks among several teams, at least three or four, generally.

Last season, there were 12 Vegas Golden Knights to record at least 10 points in the playoffs. Full credit to anyone that knew Michael Amadio and Brett Howden would be among the 47 players hitting double digits in playoff points.

Part of the reason to diversify is that you won’t necessarily be dead in the water if one team gets eliminated prematurely. If you picked six Golden Knights last season, for example, it would have likely worked out great. If those six players were Boston Bruins, on the other hand, your team would be done before the end of April.

Because of the uncertainty involved in playoff hockey – upsets happen – spreading your talent among several teams allows your team to remain in contention despite upsets. Furthermore, at some point, it will make sense to consider the top players on a seventh or eighth seed before taking a depth forward on a contender.

The Florida Panthers were supposed to get bounced by the Boston Bruins in the first round of last season’s playoffs, but by the end of the playoffs Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov and Sam Bennett each had at least 15 points. Those picks can make a massive difference in a pool.

While you are diversifying, avoid picking players that will meet in the first round. Unless it is an extraordinarily deep pool that requires some complicated decisions, there is no value to be found in picking players, knowing that you must lose one after the first round.

The aim is to get your players to play as many games as possible, so the players that get eliminated in the first round must have incredible production to make their selection worthwhile.

STACKING

While it makes sense to spread out picks among several teams, there is also great appeal to finding linemates or players that play on the same power play in order to have the chance to score multiple points on the same goal.

Tkachuk, Verhaeghe and Bennett were prime examples of that last season. Tkachuk would have drawn the most appeal, coming off his second straight 100-point season, but adding one of his linemates even later in the draft would have provided incredible value.

Likewise, Chandler Stephenson contributed 20 points for the Vegas Golden Knights on their run to the Stanley Cup last season. It certainly helped to play regularly with Mark Stone, who also had points on 13 of those goals, raising Stephenson’s production to an elite level.

Finding the player who is in close proximity to the star performer can provide better value because they can often be found several rounds later.

It’s not like Zach Hyman is going to fly under the radar, given how much he plays with Connor McDavid and that he scored 54 goals during the regular season, but Jonathan Drouin is in a nice spot alongside Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen in Colorado.

FIRST-ROUND WINNERS

Given the uncertain nature of picking the right teams to advance, there can be value in securing players from the heavier favorites going into the first round of the playoffs.

Now, that didn’t work out if you were on the Boston Bruins last season, but the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes are both strong favorites going into Round One against the Washington Capitals and New York Islanders, respectively. The Edmonton Oilers also have a decided edge in their matchup against the Los Angeles Kings.

Getting players that have a better than average shot of getting through the first round can help give your playoff pool squad some life. If too many players are in series that might as well be coin flips, you could run the risk of landing on the wrong side of those coin flips.

POWER PLAY IMPORTANCE

In the playoffs, goals are not scored so easily, so when a team gets the man advantage, there is a heightened value on those two minutes. Among the 47 players to record at least 10 points in last season’s playoffs, 23 had at least four power play points.

Finding the right defenseman who is quarterbacking a successful power play can have a massive impact.

Last season, Evan Bouchard of the Edmonton Oilers had 17 points in just 12 playoff games and 15 of those points occurred while the Oilers were on the power play! That is an extreme example, but it is the ideal scenario if you happen to hit on the right defenseman on a successful power play.

CONSIDER LATE-SEASON PRODUCTION

A lot of times, overall production can tell the story of a player’s season. Sometimes, though, there is a spike in production that might suggest a player’s value is increasing. Think of Jake Guentzel putting up 25 points (8 G, 17 A) in 17 games for Carolina.

Toronto’s John Tavares had 20 points (10 G, 10 A) in 19 games to finish the season.

Edmonton defenceman Mattias Ekholm recorded 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 19 games after the trade deadline.

Boston’s Pavel Zacha contributed 19 points (7 G, 12 A) in 17 games down the stretch.

The Rangers’ Alexis Lafreniere had a breakthrough season, and capped it off with 18 points (10 G, 8 A) after the deadline.

On the other hand, players like Evander Kane, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Max Pacioretty, Matt Duchene, and Martin Necas are among those established scorers that struggled to generate points late in the season. That might make those players easier to acquire in playoff pools, but buyer beware!

WATCH FOR INJURIES

It should go without saying that teams will be less than forthcoming with injury news late in the season and into the playoffs, but it is still important to try to decipher which players are going to be healthy enough to contribute.

Oilers superstar Connor McDavid missed some games late in the season, but there seems little reason to believe that he won’t be ready to go for the playoffs.

Golden Knights captain Mark Stone has been out for nearly two months with a lacerated spleen but has returned to practice and, conveniently, appears that he will be ready for the playoffs. Tomas Hertl was injured when the Golden Knights acquired him from San Jose, but he returned late in the season to chip in four points (2 G, 2 A) in six games for Vegas.

Lightning defenceman Mikhail Sergachev is still recovering from a broken leg and is expected to miss at least the first round of the playoffs.

Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko got a couple of starts in the final week of the season but had missed more than a month of action before that.

With all of that preparation, understand that players are going to get hurt in the playoffs and they are likely going to try to play through it, quite possibly to their own detriment. The takeaway is that luck is going to be required for teams to advance and for players to remain healthy enough to produce, so track as much injury information as possible so that you’re not starting at a deficit.

TARGET PLAYOFF PERFORMERS

In the small samples of a playoff season, any number of players can bust out with unsustainable production.

Consider a player like Tyler Bertuzzi, who only played seven games for Boston in last year’s playoffs, but he still had 10 points (5 G, 5 A). For a player who is skating on Auston Matthews’ wing, Bertuzzi might have some added postseason appeal based on what he did last season.

The Kings’ Viktor Arvidsson missed most of this season, but contributed 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 18 games but he also had seven points (1 G, 6 A) in six games in last year’s playoffs.

Dallas’ Roope Hintz has 28 points (12 G, 16 A) in 25 playoff games across the past three postseasons.

Boston defenceman Charlie McAvoy has accumulated 22 points (1 G, 21 A) in 24 games over the past three playoffs.

Winner of the 2019 Conn Smythe Trophy, Predators centre Ryan O’Reilly is known for his two-way play, but he also has 64 points (24 G, 40 A) in his past 69 playoff games. That’s notably better than his regular season production.

GOALTENDERS MEAN A LOT

The problem with this is that of course goaltenders mean a lot. The issue is figuring out which ones are going to be the difference makers in the playoffs. Good luck knowing ahead of time which ones will be worth the most.

If you knew that Adin Hill and Sergei Bobrovsky would be the standout performers between the pipes in last year’s playoffs, you don’t need anyone’s help to create your playoff fantasy roster.

For the rest, you can look to Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has a strong playoff track record, including a .924 save percentage in 77 games over the past four playoffs. Rangers netminder Igor Shesterkin has a .929 save percentage in 28 games over that span. The Islanders’ Semyon Varlamov has a .922 save percentage in 34 playoff games in that time frame.

Goaltenders matter, not just for points in a playoff pool, but in just determining which team is going to advance. A hot goalie can make a huge difference in a seven-game series, and it is the unpredictability associated with that which makes it worthwhile to hit the playoff pool with a diverse approach.

TAKE A CHANCE

Having given all this advice about preparation and reducing the potential risks, don’t be afraid to swing for the fences with a late-round pick.

In recent years, players like Chandler Stephenson, Ivan Barbashev, Artturi Lehkonen, and Max Domi have had big playoff performances, and they could be found late in playoff drafts. It will be so much more rewarding to hit on one of those players if you’re willing to make a play for potential.

NHL Playoff Preview: Florida Panthers (1) vs. New York Islanders(WC1)

Daniel Friedman and Robert Howard — Thu, 14 Apr 2016 15:37:58 +0000

Summary: These teams are pretty evenly matched, and we think it will go down to the wire regardless of who wins.

The Panthers have several good, to very good forwards, but none quite as dynamic as John Tavares. The Islanders have a handful of defensemen that are rock solid, but none quite on the same level as Aaron Ekblad.

This series will come come down to goaltending. The Cats have Roberto Luongo between the pipes, and he's coming off a strong regular season. The Isles have Thomas Greiss, and he's not exactly a menacing force.
We think they're really going to miss Jaroslav Halak in this series, and that's why we expect them to lose -- even if we expect them to come very close to winning.

PREDICTION: Panthers in 7

Key Injuries: NYI - Jaroslav Halak, Anders Lee, Mikhail Grabovski, FLA - Vincent Trocheck

Critical Factors: Roberto Luongo is the key here, looking to put past playoff performances behind him (35-19-6, 2.35, 0.922). Aaron Ekblad turned in an impressive sophomore season with 36 points, with positive possession numbers (52.9% Corsi), and a big series will help overcome any advantage Islanders have on defense with it’s solid, experienced core in Boychuk, Leddy and Hamonic, just returning from injury. John Tavares will need to provide some heavy lifting to win the first line matchup, having scored nine points in five games heading into the playoffs, after a uneven season - Jagr, Huberdeau and Barkov have been scoring at a point a game since the all star break and are formidable. Nick Bjugstad will need to fill void left by the injury to Trocheck, and his 25 goals.

Potential Breakout Players: Aaron Ekblad for reasons above .. Aleksandr Barkov has been very hot as of late, ending on a scoring streak of nine games (9-5-6-11) and 31 points in his last 30 games (30-16-15-31) .. Brock Nelson, will earn power play time with Anders Lee broken leg, using his size in front of the net – he will have to discover his scoring touch, which seemingly has deserted him as of late.

Season Matchup: Florida 2 – 1.

Key Stats

CF% 5v5 (war-on-ice.com): NYI 49.5% (18^th) FLA 48.7% (20^th)

PDO (war-on-ice.com): NYI 100.7 (6^th) FLA 102.1 (2^nd)

Power Play (NHL.com): NYI 18.3% (17^th) FLA 16.9% (23^rd)

Penalty Kill (NHL.com): NYI 84.5% (4^th) FLA 79.5% (24^th)

Goals For per-game (NHL.com): NYI 2.77 (11^th) FLA 2.83 (8^th)

Goals Against per-game (NHL.com): NYI 2.57 (13th) FLA 2.44 (7th)

Notes: Neither team is strong in possession, but Islanders hold a big edge in special teams with the 4^th ranked penalty kill, while Florida ranks near the bottom in both categories. Florida is second in the league with a 8.8 Osh%, fourth in OSv%, ranking second in PDO .. is it sustainableÉ

2015 NHL Playoffs: Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators

McKeen's Hockey — Wed, 15 Apr 2015 15:39:56 +0000

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators

The Chicago Blackhawks should be the odds on favorite to win their third Cup in five years with the monumental news that Patrick Kane has medical clearance to play in the first game of round one. The Hawks have the pedigree and confidence to go all the way, but they have played a lot of hockey in the past five seasons and you have to worry if they have enough as in the tank to go all the way. The real wild card for the Hawks has to be Kane and if his shoulder will allow him to play at his best. Often when an All-Star player returns from injury there is a bit of an exhale from the rest of the team, if either is the case it may be enough to tip the scale towards Nashville as the Hawks will have their hands full in the first round. Chicago is far from a one trick pony with Patrick Kane as we all know. He is Robin to Jonathan Toews Batman and the dynamic duo has a super supporting cast upfront with Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Brandon Saad, Antoine Vermette and Brad Richards. The blue line is another strength anchored by the Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook pair with Kimmo Timonen, Johnny Oduya, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Michal Rozsival forming arguably the best defence in the Western Conference if not the NHL. Corey Crawford has proven over and over that he is a legit starting goalie and provides confidence and stability in the crease as well. With the Hawks cap situation in the immediate future a cause for concern the players and management know that the window of opportunity is as wide as it can get with this roster and the Hawks should be hungry for that third Championship that would cement their legacy as a cap era dynasty.

The Nashville Predators are the first and possibly most formidable obstacle in Chicago’s path to a dynasty. The Preds were world beaters early on in the season led by their star goalie Pekka Rinne who was an early favorite for a Vezina Trophy. What the Preds lack in super-star forwards they make up for in goal and on defense. The team is led by Shea Weber who is one of the best defenseman in the world and is supported by Roman Josi, Seth Jones, Matias Ekholm Ryan Ellis, Cody Franson and Anton Volchenkov. They say you can never have enough D in the playoffs but the Preds depth on the blue line is very impressive. The offence is a score by committee group and will lean heavily on rookie sensation Filip Forsberg. While there is no elite scorer, there are plenty of legitimate offensive options in Mike Ribeiro, James Neal, Mike Fisher, and Craig Smith while players like Paul Gaustad, Calle Jarnkrok, Colin Wilson and Mike Santorelli provide excellent depth. It has been said that to win a Championship in the NHL you need an elite goalie and a stud defenseman or two. Well the Preds check both those boxes and their 2.77 goals per game offense is not too concerning to think they do not have a very good chance to usurp the Hawks as top contender in the West. This series should be hotly contested, very physical, very close and very entertaining!

Top Ten Nashville Predators

Filip Forsberg – Potential rookie of the year breakout performance will be relied on to score some big goals
Mike Ribeiro – A reclamation project paying dividends, has never been a playoff performer but has he finally figured it all out?
Shea Weber – The most important skater both offensively and defensively will attempt to lead this team out of the first round for the first time
James Neal – Was the “real deal” in Pittsburgh, can he recapture that offense without Malkin and Crosby?
Mike Fisher – Solid two-way player brings consistency in regular season and post season.
Craig Smith – Streaky scorer has led the Preds in scoring, can he find consistency in the playoffs?
Roman Josi – Swiss defender had a 50 point season, has to prove he can be a factor in the playoffs
Colin Wilson – Former seventh overall pick scored a 20-20 season, but can he do it in the playoffs?
Ryan Ellis – Former standout for Canada at World Juniors will be counted on for Power play production.
Seth Jones – the 18 year old rookie had 27 points and was a plus-3. He will only get better.

Top Ten Chicago Blackhawks

Patrick Kane – Getting Kane and his 0.98 career playoff PPG offense back for game one is huge.
Jonathan Toews – A proven winner who just keeps finding ways to get the job done.
Marian Hossa – The Hoss is one of the best two way forwards in the NHL and has incredible playoff experience.
Brandon Saad – Hossa lite is proving to be just as effective in the post season as he is in the regular season
Patrick Sharp – Showed signs during the season he may be slowing down, but is still a great fantasy option
Duncan Keith – Has Conn Smythe type impact for the Hawks
Brent Seabrook – plays in Keith’s shadow but is every bit as valuable and important to the Hawks
Antoine Vermette – Trade deadline acquisition dominates in faceoffs which will help with puck possession
Brad Richards – Playoff warrior was playoff MVP during Tampa Bays Cup win, still has enough game to be effective on the third line
Kimmo Timonen – 40 year old is looking for his first Cup, brings a win it for the Gipper mentality

NHL playoff pool golden rules

Carl Lemelin — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 21:01:33 +0000

Fantasy season has come to an end with the regular season’s last hurrah on Sunday... or has it?

Some of you are probably getting ready for a playoff pool with buddies. If so, you must be aware that the keys to winning post-season pools vary greatly from the strategy you may use during your pre-season draft. That is why I present to you my Playoff Pool Golden Rules, along with some bold predictions that could help give you the edge in what is sure to be a highly UN-predictable 2014 playoff run.

GOLDEN RULES

1- Know the format: Learn the scoring system used in your pool. Are goals more valuable than assists? Are there other stats than points tabulated? How much are goalie wins and shutouts worth? Are defensemen points scored the same as forwards? Knowing the format is the first step in elaborating the proper draft strategy. Make projections according to your personal playoff brackets.

2- Follow your bracket logic: This is where the main difference between regular season and playoff draft strategy lies. Spreading your roster throughout many NHL teams is usually a sound tactic during the regular season, but for a playoff pool the only way you can expect to win is to limit the core of your roster to three or four teams you believe will make a solid run (Conference Finals). If your roster limit is 10, I would suggest to pick at least 7 of your assets from your projected final-four. A spread-out roster is automatic doom as too many of your picks could end up being early exits. Go with advanced analytics or simply go with your gut feeling, but be confident in your projected brackets and stick to them throughout the whole draft.

3- Don’t be a hero: We all know about the John Druce’s, Fernando Pisani’s and Chris Kontos’s of the playoff universe. It seems every playoff season has its share of unexpected point producers. The reason for this is that when teams play each other for a possible seven straight games, coaches on both sides focus on stopping the opposition’s top players. That usually leaves a little more room to manoeuvre for second, third and yes, even sometimes fourth-liners. As attractive as the feeling might be, please don’t pretend to know who this year’s Brian Bickell will be. If you really must to take flyer on a third or fourth liner, make sure ALL first and second liners from your final-four candidates are taken first.

4- Goalies are the MVP’s: In most formats, picking tenders from Conference finalists gets you more points than you will ever get from any one skater. Unless your pool uses a system where goals or D-men points are weighted higher than one point, drafting your goalies in the first and/or second round (s) is a sound strategy.

5- Stick to your depth cut-off lines: As I would suggest for any fantasy draft, for each one of your positional lists (forwards, defenseman, goalies, teams) draw a cut-off line where you believe there is a steep step down in potential value between the players above and below said line (you can draw more than one line per list). Use these lines to help guide you throughout the draft. When your turn to pick comes up, you must consider your current roster and gauge which position is most critical for this particular pick. If you think all available players above your cut-off line for a given position will be gone before your next pick, then this is usually the position you should go with for this round. Contrary to your pre-season draft however, your playoff lists should be representative of perceived team strength (your brackets) rather than individual talent.

FEARFUL PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

I say “fearful” because of the particularly volatile nature of handicapping these 2014 playoffs. Uncertainty surrounding many key injured and just returning players, perceived stud contenders’ disappointing runs to end the regular season and others ending it with positive momentum, the ever-elusive but critical importance of team chemistry and the ever-growing trend toward parity among the sweet-16 post-season NHL dance participants are all factors that will make 99% of brackets across North-America wrong.

For what it may be worth to your chances of winning your playoff pool, here’s a brief analysis of each of the first round match-ups and how I see these Stanley Cup Playoffs evolving.

COLORADO VS MINNESOTA: Youth is no obstacle to these Avs. They are as fearless and competitive as the guy behind their bench was as a rookie. All the young Avs can play at both ends of the ice. Their defense may be suspect on paper, but it held up pretty well through 82 games didn’t it? And past Ryan Suter, is the Wild D that much better? Semyon Varlamov is better than Ilya Bryzgalov at this point. COLORADO IN 5.

ST-LOUIS VS CHICAGO: Don’t let the Blues’ season-ending losing streak fool you. They are still serious cup contenders. Most of their many injured players are expected back for Game 1. So are Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, but their lay-off has been much longer and the Hawks’ team play has been dreadful in their absence. It will be much more difficult for them to turn the switch back on as defending champs. ST-LOUIS IN 5.

ANAHEIM VS DALLAS: There simply is no category outside of goaltending that favors the Stars in this series. Bruce Boudreau will make sure his stellar shut-down duo of Hampus Lindholm and Ben Lovejoy are on the ice whenever Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin hop over the boards. Dallas won’t be able to match the Ducks’ scoring depth nor their overall team structure. Look for Kari Lehtonen’s brilliant athleticism to steal a couple of games for them nonetheless. ANAHEIM IN 6.

SAN JOSE VS LOS ANGELES: That one will be the all-out war of the opening round: two big, tough California rivals going at it for seven gruelling, physical games. The edge will go to L.A. because of these key factors: experience among the D-core, battle-tested roster mostly un-changed from their Championship run two years ago and Jonathan Quick’s un-matched playoff pedigree. LOS ANGELES IN 7.

BOSTON VS DETROIT: The only possible obstacle to a Bruins’ domination of the Eastern half of the bracket will be their energy reserve following a trip to the Finals last spring. There simply is no weakness to be found in this powerhouse line-up. Mike Babcock’s Wings will once again be a tough out, but with Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg not being fully healthy all season long, the task will be too much to handle. BOSTON IN 6.

MONTREAL VS TAMPA BAY: The most difficult series to handicap in the first round because of the many unanswered questions entering Game 1: When will Ben Bishop be fully healthy? Which version of P.K. Subban will show up? Will another line but the David Desharnais unit provide offense for the Habs? Is the Lightning’s impressive youth movement ready for the intensity of the NHL playoffs... especially at the Centre Bell? Both teams have been extremely resilient and well coached this season, but the slight edge must go to the known quality of the veteran leadership group in the Montreal locker room. MONTREAL IN 7.

PITTSBURGH VS COLUMBUS: I do believe in the age-old adage that defense wins championships, but when you have the two best offensive centers in the world, you should at least be favored to win your first round match-up. Add one of the best pure snipers in the league to that and the trio of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and James Neal is way too much to handle for the up-and-coming Jackets. Todd Richards finally has Columbus fans believing in a potentially perennial playoff squad, but they drew too difficult an opponent to handle for such an inexperienced group. PITTSBURGH IN 6.

N.Y.RANGERS VS PHILADELPHIA: The East’s version of the San Jose-L.A. battle of attrition. The difference will be in the style of play, which should be much more free-flowing and less board-battle oriented. Both teams are almost evenly matched, but I believe the Rangers hold the edge in three critical areas: coach Alain Vigneault’s playoff experience, their depth and experience down the middle (Derek Stepan, Derrick Brassard and Brad Richards) and most importantly in the crease, where Steve Mason may not even be available to start the series and face perennial crease stud King Henrik. NEW YORK IN 7.

FINAL-FOUR: In the West, the Kings will face the Blues in a rematch of last year’s epic first round match-up. Ken Hitchcock’s squad has yet to address what plagued them in that series: lack of playmaking skill down the middle. Much like what the Hawks accomplished a year ago, the Kings will return to the Finals two years removed from winning it all. In the East, the unstoppable force that is the Bruins’ well oiled machine will build upon the confidence boost a victory over the feisty Wings and their old nemesis, the Canadiens affords them, rolling over the Rangers in the Conference Final.

STANLEY CUP FINALS: The Bruins have it all when you analyse what it took to win a championship in the past five or so playoff runs: elite-level coaching (Claude Julien would get my vote for the Adams Trophy this season), four-strong at centre who can all play without the puck, a team-concept buy-in from every player and clear commitment to the system, good team toughness and resiliency and an elite goaltender they can ride to 16 spring wins. The Kings have that too, but a second series in as many playoffs against the Blues will take way too much out of them. Just like what happened to Boston in the 2013 Finals, Darryl Sutter’s crew will simply run out of gas.

2014 STANLEY CUP CHAMPS: BOSTON BRUINS.