Nic Hague – McKeen's Hockey

STANLEY CUP FINAL: VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS FLORIDA PANTHERS – Goaltending key in a tightly contested series

Scott Cullen — Wed, 31 May 2023 17:14:40 +0000

SUNRISE, FL - MARCH 07: Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill (33) eyes Florida Panthers center Carter Verhaeghe (23) as he attacks with he puck during the game between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers on Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at FLA Live Arena in Sunrise, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

The Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers meet in what may be, by temperature, the hottest Stanley Cup Final in history. Vegas finished the regular season with 111 points, tops in the Western Conference. The Golden Knights have advanced to the Final round of the postseason tournament after defeating the Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, and Winnipeg Jets.

It has been a decidedly different path to the Final for the Florida Panthers, who snuck into the postseason with 92 points, the fewest of any team to qualify for the playoffs.

The Panthers eliminated the Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Carolina Hurricanes – the first, fourth, and second-place teams in the league, respectively, during the regular season – on the way to this matchup with the fifth-place Golden Knights.

If Florida is going to win, there will be no doubt that they have earned it, going through such a daunting path.

Forwards

Jack Eichel’s first playoff appearance has been a long time coming, but he is making the most of it. Eichel has 18 points in 17 games to lead the Golden Knights and has formed an outstanding line with Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault. The trio has controlled 56.2% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 12-4 during five-on-five play.

Marchessault has nine goals and 17 points, leading the Golden Knights with 62 shots on goal in 17 playoff contests. Barbashev, a pending free agent, is raising his offseason price tag with every game, contributing 15 points and playing a hard game, delivering 51 hits.

Part of what has made the Golden Knights so dangerous in the playoffs is their outstanding depth. Beyond the top line, captain Mark Stone has 15 points and Chandler Stephenson has 14. They skate on a line with Brett Howden, who has six points to go along with 51 hits.

William Karlsson centers the third line for Vegas and, in addition to fulfilling a checking role, also leads the Golden Knights with 10 goals in the playoffs. Reilly Smith chipped in 11 points and that pair of original Golden Knights have been joined by Michael Amadio, who has contributed seven points in 11 playoff games.

Vegas’ fourth line of William Carrier, Nicolas Roy, and Keegan Kolesar can hold their own and bring a physical presence. The Golden Knights have such strong depth that Teddy Blueger and Phil Kessel have been reduced to being part-time players, sitting for more games than they have dressed for in the playoffs.

Coming off his second consecutive 100-point season, Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk was already a star, but he has taken his game to a new level for the Panthers in the playoffs, leading the team with nine goals, 21 points, and four game-winning goals in 16 playoff games. He has been the proverbial straw that stirs the drink for the Panthers.

Tkachuk has mostly been skating on a line with Sam Bennett and Nick Cousins. Tkachuk and Bennett are not afraid to turn the game into a street fight, playing with the hard physical edge that is expected in playoff hockey.

Aleksander Barkov was the Panthers’ leader before Tkachuk arrived and has not been a dominant performer in the playoffs. He has 14 points and his line with Carter Verhaeghe and Anthony Duclair has outscored opponents 8-4 during five-on-five play, but that trio has also managed just 43.2% of expected goals, so there is room for improvement. Verhaeghe ranks second on the Panthers with 15 playoff points, while Duclair has contributed nine points.

Sam Reinhart is over-qualified as a third-line player, but he helps to diversify the Panthers’ attack, skating with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen. Reinhart ranks second among the Panthers with seven goals in the playoffs.

While forward depth is a clear strength for the Golden Knights, it is a notable weakness for the Panthers. Lundell and Luostarinen have three goals between them and fourth line contributors Eric Staal, Colin White, and either Ryan Lomberg or Zac Dalpe has combined for three goals. That is not a lot of production out of the lower half of the forward depth chart.

If the Panthers are going to compete in this series, they will likely need more contributions further down the lineup because it is asking a lot for Tkachuk to continue carrying the offense to the degree that he has so far in the postseason.

Defense

While all three of Vegas’ defense pairings are outscoring the opposition, only the duo of Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore is also driving play, controlling 54.5% of expected goals with Vegas outscoring opponents 11-8 with McNabb and Theodore on the ice during five-on-five play. Theodore has seven points in 16 playoff games, which is behind his regular-season pace of 41 points in 55 games.

Alex Pietrangelo leads Golden Knights defensemen with nine points in the postseason, and the Golden Knights are outscoring opponents 16-7 with Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez on the ice, despite managing 46.4% of expected goals, during five-on-five play.

Similarly, Vegas has outscored opponents 12-4 with the third pair of Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud on the ice during five-on-five play, despite managing 45.9% of expected goals. They do tend to play quite a bit to be considered the third pairing, as Hague and Whitecloud have seen the most five-on-five action of any Golden Knights defense tandem in the playoffs.

Florida’s defense is led by Brandon Montour, who has scored six goals in the playoffs, and leads the Panthers with 59 shots on goal. However, he has been paired with Marc Staal and the Panthers have been outscored 10-7 while getting just 41.2% of expected goals during five-on-five play with that duo on the ice. That could be a concern when facing a Vegas team with a lot of forwards capable of taking advantage against suspect defense.

The Panthers are outscoring opponents 10-5 with Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling on the ice even though they have generated 46.1% of expected goals at five-on-five. Montour, Forsling, and Ekblad are all averaging more than 24 minutes of ice time per game in the playoffs, so Florida does tend to lean on their top defenders.

Florida’s third pairing of Radko Gudas and Josh Mahura does not play as much, but they have been relatively effective. The Panthers have pulled nearly 55.0% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 5-4 with Gudas and Mahura on the ice.

Florida’s defensive track record in the playoffs has been subpar. They have allowed 33.3 shots against per 60 minutes in all situations, which is the second highest among all playoff teams. To be fair, Vegas has allowed 31.4 shots against per 60 minutes, which is fourth highest, so neither team has been in shutdown mode on the path to the Final. Of course, Florida has a secret weapon of sorts when the defense has faltered.

Goaltending

After playing at a below average level for three of the past four seasons, and not even starting the playoffs as the Panthers’ No.1 goaltender, Sergei Bobrovsky heads into the Cup Final as the odds-on favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy. In 14 playoff games, Bobrovsky has a .935 save percentage and leads all goaltenders with 19.45 Goals Saved Above Expected. He is a two-time Vezina Trophy winner, so it’s not like this performance is completely out of nowhere, but there has not been a lot in recent seasons to suggest that this level of play was still possible. Can he keep it up for one more round?

If Bobrovsky is an unlikely goalie to backstop a team to the Stanley Cup, what would that say about Vegas’ Adin Hill? The goaltending carousel has been turning all season for the Golden Knights, with injuries forcing the team to start five different goaltenders after presumed No. 1 Robin Lehner was deemed out for the season. In the playoffs Laurent Brossoit started for Vegas, but Hill has stepped in and delivered high quality performance, posting a .937 save percentage with 10.78 Goals Saved Above Expected in 11 games.

The team that gets the better goaltending should have an edge in the series. The challenge is figuring out which one of these surprising goaltending stories will continue.

Special Teams

Vegas’ power play has been a problem area for the entire playoffs and their 4.75 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play is the worst among teams that advanced beyond the first round. The Golden Knights have 10 power play goals in 17 playoff games, with Eichel and Stone both accounting for three.

With 9.30 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four action, Florida’s power play has been a little more dangerous, tallying 12 goals in 16 playoff games, led by Tkachuk with four and Reinhart with three.

This power play edge may not fully materialize for Florida, however, because Vegas has been very disciplined in its approach, spending 4:22 per game shorthanded, compared to 5:29 per game for the Panthers.

It is a good thing that Vegas does not take many penalties, because they have been utterly helpless when trying to kill them, allowing the highest rate of shot attempts, shots, and expected goals against during four-on-five play in the postseason. They get bailed out by goaltending from time to time, but if the Golden Knights take penalties, that would just be asking for trouble.

Florida’s penalty killing has not been terribly effective either, allowing higher than average rates of shot attempts, shots, and expected goals against during four-on-five play. This could be an area of vulnerability for Florida, but only if Vegas can somehow turn their power play into a viable threat.

Conclusion

Vegas has been the more effective team during five-on-five play, but neither team has controlled play with real authority. Both the Panthers and Golden Knights have reached this point thanks in large part to outstanding goaltending and that puts a lot of pressure on Bobrovsky and Hill going into the Final. In a tightly contested series, Vegas’ superior depth gives them a slight edge. Golden Knights in 7.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: DALLAS STARS VS VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Recent Stanley Cup finalists looking to complete unfinished business

Scott Cullen — Thu, 18 May 2023 13:47:17 +0000

The Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars have advanced through the second round and will meet in the Western Conference Final for a chance to play the winner of the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final.

Both the Stars and Golden Knights have reached the Stanley Cup Final recently. The Golden Knights are in their sixth season, so their entire history is recent, and they reached the Final in 2018, losing to the Washington Capitals. The Stars were defeated by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2020 Final.

DALLAS, TX - APRIL 08: Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Alec Martinez (23), Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston (53) and right wing Evgenii Dadonov (63) stand in front of Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Jonathan Quick (32) during the game between the Dallas Stars and the Vegas Golden Knights on April 8, 2023 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Forwards

Vegas’s strength has been depth, and that has allowed them to overcome injuries throughout the season but also to receive contributions up and down the lineup. With a relatively healthy lineup in the postseason, Jack Eichel and Mark Stone are leading the way offensively, with 14 and 12 points, respectively.

However, seven more Golden Knights forwards have accrued at least five points through 11 playoff games. Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault flank Eichel on the top line, and that trio has controlled better than 57% of expected goals during five-on-five play in the postseason. Marchessault started slowly in the playoffs, but produced eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 23 shots on goal in the last four games against Edmonton.

Mark Stone and speedy center Chandler Stephenson are a strong foundation on the second line, with Brett Howden moving up the depth chart to join them. Stephenson is tied for the team lead with six goals. Howden’s production dipped against Edmonton, but he does bring a physical presence in a supporting role.

Reilly Smith, William Karlsson, and Nicolas Roy give the Golden Knights a high quality third line. Smith and Karlsson both have produced eight points in 11 playoff games.

The fourth line of William Carrier, Teddy Blueger, and Keegan Kolesar does not score a lot, but will take a pound of flesh as Carrier and Kolesar lead the Golden Knights in hits/60 in the playoffs. Michael Amadio has appeared in nine playoff games, but Blueger joined the lineup for the last two games against Edmonton. Phil Kessel has not dressed for Vegas since Game 5 of the first round.

Roope Hintz has elevated his game in the postseason, leading the Stars with nine goals and 19 points in 13 playoff games. His shot rate has increased, and the Stars have controlled 68.5% of expected goals with Hintz on the ice during five-on-play in the playoffs. Jason Robertson has managed just two goals and while he has 10 assists and has been driving play, the Stars have room to get better if Robertson’s production gets back on track. Joe Pavelski suffered a concussion in Game 1 of the first round against Minnesota but scored eight goals in seven games against Seattle. That trio is in a strong contender for Like the Golden Knights, the Stars have a quality top nine and have been able to count on

Like the Golden Knights, the Stars have a quality top nine and have been able to count on any of their top three lines to chip in offensively. Veterans Max Domi, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Evgenii Dadonov all have at least nine points. Mason Marchment and rookie Wyatt Johnston both contributed four goals and six points.

Radek Faksa, Luke Glendening, Joel Kiviranta, and Ty Dellandrea, in some combination, fill fourth line roles for the most part and they have had a mixed bag of results. For example, the Stars have controlled 55.3% of expected goals but have been outscored 9-3 with Dellandrea on the ice for five-on-five play in the playoffs.

Both teams have quality depth, but Vegas appears to have a deeper reservoir of talent up front.

Defense

Alex Pietrangelo has seven assists while playing more than 24 minutes per game but his most memorable play in the postseason may be his two-handed slash on Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl. Pietrangelo was suspended for Game 5 of that series as a result. He has paired with Alec Martinez and that pairing has had just 42.5 CF% and 46.7 xGF%, but they have somehow outscored the opposition 11-4 during five-on-five play.

Vegas’ second pairing of Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb, who offer a good mix of skills, from Theodore’s puck movement to McNabb’s bone-crunching hits, has been their most effective pair in the postseason. They have pulled 52.2% expected goals as a tandem in the playoffs, and they are the only two Vegas blueliners on the right side of 50% in that metric.

The Golden Knights’s third pair of Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud is relatively solid. They have been on the wrong end of Corsi (47.3%) and expected goals (47.5%) but have outscored the opposition 6-3 in the postseason.

Miro Heiskanen had a tremendous season and has contributed nine assists while playing more than 28 minutes per game in 13 playoff games. While he has played a ton, Heiskanen has had just slightly positive results so far in the playoffs, with a 52.2 CF% and 51.7 xGF% while the Stars have outscored opponents 8-6 with Heiskanen on the ice. Paired with Ryan Suter, Heiskanen has been very good, but hardly dominant, in the postseason.

The trouble for the Stars lands on the second pair, where Jani Hakanpaa and Esa Lindell have managed just 43.5% of expected goals and been outscored 11-4 during five-on-five play in the playoffs. Hakanpaa was bumped from the defensive rotation for Colin Miller in Game 7 against Seattle.

Where the Stars have had an edge in the playoffs is with the third pair of Thomas Harley and Joel Hanley on the ice. Harley has seven points, and the Stars are controlling 63.2% of expected goals with him on the ice for five-on-five play. Hanley has appeared in eight games and the Stars have 69.2% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 8-2 with him on the ice during five-on-five play.

If Miller replacing Hakanpaa can’t fix the second pair, then that is an area of weakness for the Golden Knights to exploit.

While both clubs have some top end blueliners, there are points of vulnerability on both units. Considering the depth of forward talent on both teams, the challenge for the Golden Knights and Stars will be minimizing the potential mismatches.

Goaltending

Dallas’ Jake Oettinger was so highly regarded coming out of last season’s first round loss to Calgary and he was comfortably above average during the regular season, but he was unexpectedly shaky in the second round against Seattle, posting a .877 save percentage in seven games. Given his opposition, though, Oettinger should be expected to give the Stars an edge.

Vegas has been churning through goaltenders. The latest to take on the starting job is Adin Hill, who played well after jumping in for an injured Laurent Brossoit. Hill had a .915 save percentage in 27 regular-season games and put up a .934 save percentage in five games against the Oilers. Those are solid numbers but the challenge for Hill, and all Golden Knights goaltenders this season, is staying healthy for more than two weeks at a time.

Special Teams

Vegas’ power play has been a problem area and is the weakest in the postseason for the four teams remaining. The Golden Knights have scored 4.81 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranks 13^th. Eichel and Stone have combined to score five of Vegas’ seven power play goals in the playoffs.

Dallas’ power play was excellent during the regular season, ranking second in the league with 9.40 goals per 60 during five-on-four play, and that rate has improved in the postseason, up to 12.41. Tyler Seguin leads the Stars with four power play goals in the playoffs while Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz both have eight points with the man advantage.

The efficiency of the Stars’ power play could pose a major problem for the Golden Knights because Vegas’ PK has been abysmal. They have allowed 17.04 goals against per 60 during four-on-five play, ranking 15^th out of 16 playoff teams.

By contrast, the Stars’ penalty killing unit was strong during the regular season and that has carried over into the playoffs. Dallas has allowed 4.81 goals against per 60 at four-on-five, ranking third in the playoffs.

Conclusion

This should be a competitive series because both the Stars and Golden Knights have shown great resilience to reach this point of the playoffs. However, the Stars have a significant special teams edge and should likely have the better goaltender, which is enough to nudge this towards Big D. Stars in 7.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Big forwards that are elevating their production, including Anders Lee, Lawson Crouse, Jordan Greenway and more, plus a few trades getting done before Monday’s deadline with Calle Jarnkrok, Ben Chiarot, and Josh Manson already on the move.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 17:49:28 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, big forwards that are elevating their production, including Anders Lee, Lawson Crouse, Jordan Greenway and more, plus a few trades getting done before Monday’s deadline with Calle Jarnkrok, Ben Chiarot, and Josh Manson already on the move.

#1 Coming off a torn ACL last season, New York Islanders captain Anders Lee had a rough start to this season, managing four goals and no assists through his first 15 games. His performance since then has been uneven – some good, some bad – but Lee is now on a six-game goal-scoring streak, during which he has 10 points (9 G, 1 A).and 19 shots on goal. Since 2017-2018, Lee has scored 123 goals in 311 games to rank 28^th in the league over that time.

#2 In deep leagues, Arizona Coyotes left winger Lawson Crouse has had value from time to time because he provides hits in addition to modest offensive contributions but what happens when the scoring contributions are more than modest? In his past six games, Crouse has put up eight points (5 G, 3 A), 11 shots and 19 hits. Crouse is up to a career-high 19 goals in 59 games.

#3 Sticking with the trend of big wingers making a mark, Minnesota Wild left winger Jordan Greenway has not had a terribly productive season, but Greenway recently missed a couple of weeks with an injury and since returning to action has contributed three points (2 G, 1 A), 13 shots on goal, and 12 hits in five games.

#4 With Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog on the shelf with a knee injury, opportunity is knocking for Valeri Nichushkin, a powerful winger that I have recommended at various times this season already, but he’s now skating on Colorado’s top line and getting first-unit power play time. In his past 21 games, Nichushkin has 16 points (5 G, 11 A) and 59 shots on goal, but the chance to play with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen is even more appealing than Nichushkin’s recent level of production.

#5 Ottawa Senators defenseman Thomas Chabot has suffered a broken hand which could keep him out for the rest of the season, and for fantasy purposes, it opens the door for someone else to quarterback the Ottawa power play. Enter Erik Brannstrom, a 22-year-old puck-mover who has just five assists in 31 games. Brannstrom played a career-high 27:53 in the Senators’ last game, so he may be looking at an opportunity to play a big role down the stretch for Ottawa.

OTTAWA, ON - JANUARY 16: Ottawa Senators Center Josh Norris (9) skates during the second period of the NHL game between the Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs on January 16, 2021 at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

#6 Senators center Josh Norris missed five weeks with a shoulder injury, but he has been excellent since returning to the lineup, tallying eight points (6 G, 2 A) along with 19 shots on goal in eight games. Norris has played 100 NHL games over the past two seasons, scoring 41 goals. His 0.41 goals per game across the past two seasons is tied with the likes of Mitch Marner, Mika Zibanejad, Andrew Mangiapane, and Matt Duchene.

#7 Moved to the Edmonton Oilers top line with Connor McDavid and Evander Kane, Kailer Yamamoto is starting to produce after what has been a mostly mediocre season. He started the year with just six points (5 G, 1 A) in his first 28 games but has started to come around. During his current four-game goal-scoring streak, Yamamoto has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 11 shots on goal.

#8 Industrious Toronto Maple Leafs right winger Ondrej Kase has been a welcome source of secondary scoring for the Leafs. In his past six games, Kase has six points (4 G, 2 a) and 14 shots on goal. In the past couple of games, he has been skating on the second line, with Alex Kerfoot and William Nylander, which offers a little more offensive upside than when he skates on the wing of David Kampf’s line.

#9 With Bruins center Patrice Bergeron injured, Boston is dependent on the rest of their centers to fill the void. This is an opportunity for Charlie Coyle to step up and Coyle has been more productive recently, delivering 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in his past 16 games. Coyle has 33 points in 61 games this season and that 0.54 points per game is his highest since 2017-2018.

#10 The Calgary Flames made another savvy move before the trade deadline, acquiring versatile forward Calle Jarnkrok from the Seattle Kraken. Jarnkrok has been playing 16:48 per game this season, tying his average time on ice last season for the highest of his career, and there is a decent chance that he will not be required to play that much in Calgary. Jarnkrok has 26 points (12 G, 14 A) in 49 games, the fourth time in the past five seasons that he has averaged better than 0.50 points per game. That should fit comfortably in the Flames’ middle six up front.

#11 The other big trade from Wednesday was the Florida Panthers paying a big price to get defenseman Ben Chiarot from the Montreal Canadiens. Chiarot has deep league fantasy appeal, particularly after a recent scoring surge saw him put up nine points (2 G, 7 A) in his last nine games for the Habs. With Chiarot departing, the most obvious candidate to fill that ice time on the Canadiens blueline is Joel Edmundson, the veteran blueliner who has just returned to the lineup, playing his first two games of the season.

#12 Earlier in the week, the Colorado Avalanche made a big acquisition with their deal for veteran right-shot defenseman Josh Manson from the Anaheim Ducks. Manson only has nine points (4 G, 5 A) in 45 games this season, but he did have three points in his last three games with the Ducks before the trade. While the scoring numbers may not make much of a difference in Colorado, Manson had 10 hits in his first game for the Avs, so there might be some peripheral stats value for fantasy managers.

#13 With Boone Jenner sidelined, Jack Roslovic has moved up the depth chart for the Columbus Blue Jackets and sometimes all that is needed is a better opportunity. In his past 12 games, Roslovic has contributed nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 19 shots on goal. Roslovic had a breakthrough season last year, scoring 34 points in 48 games, but his ice time is way down this season, from 16:54 per game last season to 12:38 per game this season.

#14 21-year-old Arizona Coyotes center Barrett Hayton has taken some time to make his mark since he was the fifth overall pick in the 2018 Draft, but he should be looking at a consistent role for the rest of the season as Arizona tries to find players that can be part of the long-term plan in the desert. In Hayton’s case, he has put up eight points (3 G, 5 A) in the past eight games and that might give him some sleeper value late in the season.

#15 Florida Panthers rookie goaltender Spencer Knight was a potential Calder Trophy candidate coming into the season, but his performance was underwhelming enough that he ended getting sent to the AHL where he had a .905 save percentage in 11 games, hardly an assurance that he would be able to handle his return to the NHL, but Knight has been excellent since returning to the Panthers, posting a .928 save percentage in four starts.

#16 Carolina Hurricanes backup goaltender Antti Raanta has had trouble staying healthy for long enough to secure a starting job, but he has performed well enough to have value when he is healthy. In his past six starts for the ‘Canes, Raanta has a .930 save percentage, lifting his save percentage for the season to .917. For fantasy spots starts, Raanta is worth considering.

#17 Since the All-Star break, the NHL leaders in primary points (goals plus first assists) per game (minimum 10 games): Patrick Kane, J.T. Miller, Auston Matthews, Elias Lindholm, Nick Schmaltz, Jonathan Huberdeau, Connor McDavid, Clayton Keller, Jack Hughes, and Kirill Kaprizov. Miller is playing as well as he ever has while Schmaltz and Keller are driving Arizona’s sudden offensive explosion. Hughes has been playing at a star level since returning from injury.

#18 Nashville defenseman Roman Josi has produced a whopping 28 points in his last 15 games, surging into the scoring lead among defensemen with 72 points in 59 games, ahead of Colorado’s Cale Makar, who has 66 points in 57 games.

#19 Since the All-Star break, the players with the highest rate of individual shot attempts per 60 minutes (minimum 100 5v5 minutes): Viktor Arvidsson, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, Victor Olofsson, Arthur Kaliyev, David Pastrnak, Nic Hague, and Jake Walman. Some of those names are familiar and expected but Kings rookie winger Kaliyev along with Golden Knights defenseman Hague and Blues defenseman Walman are more surprising.

#20 Skaters with the highest on-ice xGF/60 since the All-Star break (minimum 100 5v5 minutes): Mitch Marner, Patrice Bergeron, Auston Matthews, Timothy Liljegren, Michael Bunting, Connor McDavid, Thomas Harley, Mikko Rantanen, Evan Bouchard, and Trevor Moore. Toronto’s top line is dominating and Bergeron, McDavid, and Rantanen are entirely expected to create quality scoring chances, but young defensemen Liljegren, Harley, and Bouchard are driving positive results when they are on the ice.

#21 The players that have been most snakebit since the All-Star break, with the greatest difference between their all-situations expected goals and their actual goals: Brendan Gallagher, Anthony Beauvillier, Andrew Copp, Rasmus Asplund, Alex Iafallo, Roope Hintz, Nazem Kadri, Joe Pavelski, John Tavares, and Mikko Rantanen. From that group, I would expect Hintz, Tavares, and Rantanen to be the most likely to see their goal-scoring numbers improve down the stretch.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

NUMBERS AT WORK: Weekly Highlights and Observations – 11/15/2021 – Team of the Week: Vegas – What’s Wrong With: Seattle – Microstats 3 Stars

Corey Sznajder — Tue, 16 Nov 2021 22:12:53 +0000

Team of the Week: Vegas Golden Knights

There were a lot of worthy teams to choose from this week, but we’re going to focus on the resurging Vegas Golden Knights, who have salvaged a terrible start in winning eight of their last 10 games. The message through the first two months was how they had to weather the storm while their top forwards returned from injury. Everyone not named Jonathan Marchessault or Reilly Smith has been on the shelf and they have another one waiting with the recent trade for superstar center Jack Eichel), so they have to do what they can to stay above water while the cavalry gets healthy.

It looked like a tough sell at the beginning of the month. They couldn’t score, injuries resorted their team to more of a pop-gun offense and their team defense looked in shambles. Since November, they’ve righted the ship and this past week was a sign that they might be turning the corner, winning all three of their games. The most impressive of which being their 3-2 victory over a good Minnesota team where they got a couple of goals from deep in their organizational depth chart in the form of Paul Cotter and Jonas Røndbjerg.

What I love about these clips is that it’s two low-profile rookies scoring goals that you would see in almost any Vegas game the past few years. Search Alex Tuch highlights, and they would look just like this. The forward finds an opening, waits for a pass and then lets his skill do the work in a one-on-one matchup. Vegas has gotten a lot of these looks this year, but they’ve had a devil of a time converting on them. Just ask Keegan Kolesar, who is still waiting for his first goal of the year despite generating 27 scoring chances in 15 games. Vegas has been begging for anyone in their bottom-six to see the scoresheet and they’re finally started to get that this past week with these two call-ups making the most of their chances. Cotter was sent back to the AHL after this game to make room for the returning Mark Stone, but he and Røndbjerg made very good first impressions that could go a long way if Vegas’ other depth forwards continue to struggle.

While the goals were nice, this does illustrate one of the problems Vegas has had this year, which is the lack of sustained possessions and playing more of a pop-gun offense compared to year’s past. With the exception of Smith and Marchessault, Vegas forwards have had to do most of their damage off the rush and it’s put more stress on their defense. Not just in terms of trading chances, but with how aggressive they play in the offensive zone. The Knight’s defense was one of the best in the league at generating chances and acting as the fourth forward. They had more shots generated off cross-seam passes and off plays from behind the goal line than any other team last year. The strategy hasn’t changed this year, but the dissipating forward talent has taken its toll on their defense a bit. Jared Spurgeon’s goal from Thursday’s game is a good example of that.

Notice how Nic Hague (14 on Vegas) pinches along the left wall after the dump-in. It’s a routine play for Vegas, but the Wild make a quick exit. There’s a forward back to cover, but his man doesn’t score the goal. Instead, it’s a cutting Jared Spurgeon, who wins the race against Hague (who had his momentum carrying him the other way when he missed the puck on his pinch) to score the goal. If you look at a lot of the goals Vegas has given up this year, a lot of it is from the defense being over aggressive while the puck is in front of them and it’s how they have to play while their top forwards are on the mend. Sometimes it works, as we’ve seen with Shea Theodore having four points in his last three games but even then, most of his goals have come off faceoff plays and d-to-d passes rather than off the rush, which is what Vegas has struggled at. Theodore and Pietrangelo have been under scrutiny for their defensive play this year and while that is starting to correct itself, it’s hard to ignore the trickledown effect from the forward injuries.

Vegas’ three most relied on defenders are in the “overworked” quadrant of this chart, which means they’re getting targeted by opposing forwards a lot and they’re giving up a high number of chances when other teams enter the zone against them. If you look at their game-by-game stats from an Expected Goals perspective, you’ll see that it’s a lot of very good games mixed with some awful games. So, there is a major feast-or-famine element to their defense now and the team’s results have followed suit. Is this a result of their defense playing more aggressive in the offensive zone and getting burned when their risks don’t pay off? Vegas runs their offense through their defense corps more than most teams and if the forwards aren’t as in-sync as they were last year, guys like Pietrangelo and Theodore are going to get stretched more. The puck either has to stay higher in the zone or the defense has to do more to retrieve pucks if the forwards can’t create any sustained pressure. Vegas’ top-four is good enough to handle this (although getting Martinez back for more than one game would be nice), but there is a higher risk of turnovers leading to rush chances the other way with one defenseman being left on an island. Is this something that can be corrected once the team gets healthy? Possibly, but you’re going to see some extreme results on both sides of the coin from the Knights’ top players until then.

The good news for the Knights is that the reinforcements are on their way. Mark Stone returned this Saturday, Alec Martinez returned before taking a skate to the face early in the Minnesota game and they have a major addition coming in a few months with Jack Eichel. That and they’ve managed to weather the storm with this recent 10-game stretch and will have to tread water until everyone is healthy. Vegas is still a good team who likely be in a playoff spot come May, but some of these cracks in the armor show that they aren’t the runaway favorites in the division anymore.

Top Microstat Performances:

WINNIPEG, MB – April 17: Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) skates in on Winnipeg Jets defenseman Derek Forbort (24) during the regular season game between the Winnipeg Jets and the Edmonton Oilers on April 17, 2021 at the Bell MTS Place in Winnipeg MB. (Photo by Terrence Lee/Icon Sportswire)

Connor McDavid vs. Bruins

McDavid is in a class of his own when it comes to how ridiculous he is in transition, so I’m going to make an effort not to feature him every week. It’s tough to do that when he has a game like he did against Boston last Thursday. McDavid carried the puck in on all nine of his zone entries, three of which led to scoring chances (which is really tough to do in one game). He also contributed to nine shots at even strength, producing three scoring chances and setting up two.

Rewatching the footage was interesting because it was more like a chess match than McDavid just dominating from the onset. He could gain the line against Boston’s defense but couldn’t get past the first layer for most of the first period. Then in the second he started to find openings, flying the zone for a breakaway on one opportunity and retrieving the puck in the corner to setup Zach Hyman for a goal late in the second period. He also led a couple of give-and-gos. He finished the game with only one point, but it could have easily been another three point night for him with some better luck/finishing.

Roman Josi vs. Blues

Nashville is low-key one of the hottest teams in the league, currently riding a three game win streak while boasting some very strong underlying numbers at five-on-five. It’s been a by-committee effort from them. Matt Duchene found his scoring touch again, Mikael Granlund is producing, Luke Kunin is off to a great start, but it all comes back to their captain Roman Josi. The star defenseman has been the gold standard for puck-rushing defensemen in recent seasons and we saw a little of that in their overtime win over St. Louis in Thursday night.

Josi had eight zone entries, seven of which were with control of the puck. It’s a high number for a defenseman, but a typical game for Josi. However, the way he did this was a little different than in years past. Instead of going end-to-end, he wasn’t the first guy back to retrieve the puck on a lot of these plays, deferring to his partner Dante Fabbro. Why this is important is that it gives him more options when carrying the puck through neutral ice. He’s already by the first forechecker, so there’s going to be more open ice and more support options with him. It gives Nashville a different layer to their offense and makes their rush chances a little more dangerous instead of having Josi creating something out of nothing. Josi might get all the stats, but all of Nashville’s roster deserves some recognition for how they’ve played the past 10 games.

Troy Terry

It’s amazing what starting the season with a couple of goals can do for your confidence. Anaheim’s Tory Terry has been on fire to start the year with 20 points in 15 games and Sunday night’s game against Vancouver was just another night at the office for him. Always very skilled and active with his stick, the roadblock for Terry was turning highlight reel plays into consistent results. So far, he’s been able to do that and then some.

He had the puck on a string all night, producing three scoring chances and setting up 15 shots on goal (including power plays). Everything just looked so easy for him, as he was doing a little of everything. Quarterbacking Anaheim’s power play from the right wall, helping them lead breakouts (6 exits with possession), leading rushes (6 zone entries) and being a good support player in the offensive zone when he wasn’t the one spearheading the rush. Looking like a nice depth piece who could maybe hit 40 points in a good season, Terry has played like Anaheim’s version of Mark Stone to start the year. Might be an extreme comparison, but he really has been that good and it will be interesting to see where he levels out at once the points stop coming so easily. He probably won’t shoot at 30% forever, but he’s still an incredibly fun player to watch. Those who can’t stay up for Anaheim games are in for a treat as the Ducks make their way through the East Coast this coming week.

What’s Wrong With…?

VANCOUVER, BC - OCTOBER 05: Seattle Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer (31) tracks the play during their preseason NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks on October 5, 2021 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

Seattle Kraken

Unlike Vegas, the Kraken’s start has resembled more of what people expect from an expansion team, winning only four of their first 15 games and sitting at the bottom of the Pacific Division. They’re a weird team to breakdown because on one hand, it’s an expansion team that didn’t have much offensive firepower heading into the year. On the other hand, they invested heavily in team defense and goaltending both in the expansion draft and free agency. They currently have the worst team save percentage in the league (both at 5v5 and in all situations) with their starter Philipp Grubauer posting an ugly .880 mark over 12 games.

I tend to defer to goalie experts since it’s not my area of expertise, but it’s hard to believe that Grubauer would become a replacement level goalie one year removed from being a Vezina finalist. Even when you factor in how his current situation is a total 180 from where he was in Colorado, where he maybe saw 10 scoring chances a night at most, it was tough to see him playing this poorly. Some of the goals in the Anaheim game were tough to watch, particularly the two point shot goals he let in.

These are the types of goals that will probably be stopped more frequently as the year goes on. The Kraken’s five-on-five offense has started to come around, sitting in the middle of the pack in terms of goal-scoring (a hot streak from Jordan Eberle is mostly to thank for that), so the goaltending will likely trend towards the league average. Grubauer should settle in and learn his defense’s tendencies more, which should lead to fewer leaky goals.

Their power play, on the other hand, will be a tougher riddle to solve. Only the depleted Pittsburgh Penguins have scored fewer power play goals per 60 minutes this year and even that is slightly boosted from the late tally they scored against Minnesota. The lack of a go-to guy hurts the most here, as they’ve resorted to Mark Giordano point shots as their default play with Morgan Geekie firing one-timers from the right circle at the secondary option. Their best option, Jordan Eberle, has only one power play goal all season because he’s stuck waiting for a pass in the slot or a rebound in front of the net. Getting Jared McCann’s shot back in the lineup helps, but the Kraken have had a tough time getting the puck on the stick of their best player’s when playing with the man advantage.

They’ve gone to some interesting tactics to fix this, one of which included putting the towering defenseman Jamie Oleksiak in the netfront role, but nothing has really worked. They can only score if they get a passing lane open below the faceoff circles, which are pretty easy to eliminate if you’re a penalty killer. They have some players who are patient and creative enough to get the pass through the box from the halfwall (hi Marcus Johansson) to complement some of their more tenacious netfront players like Yanni Gourde, so it will be interesting to see if they can get something to work here as the season progresses.

AHL Calder Cup Playoff Preview – Western Conference

Tom Dorsa — Wed, 17 Apr 2019 14:07:47 +0000

The Calder Cup Playoffs are upon us again, and in the Western Conference, we are seeing a lot of changes from the picture painted last season. The defending conference champions, the Texas Stars, failed to make the playoffs to defend their 2018 West title as one of five teams that competed in last season's Western Conference bracket that couldn't repeat as postseason teams.

Those teams are the Stars, Manitoba Moose, Rockford IceHogs, Tucson Roadrunners, and Ontario Reign. But with old teams and players out, new teams and players come in, setting up to shine under the bright lights of the Calder Cup Playoffs. The Iowa Wild, Milwaukee Admirals, San Diego Gulls, and Colorado Eagles (in their first season as an AHL team) are seeking to wreak havoc on the American Hockey League after missing out on a chance last season.

And in the case of Iowa and Colorado, this is their first postseason appearance in the history of the franchise's current setup. Fans in Des Moines and Loveland will get to see enthralling playoff hockey for the first time in the AHL.

Let's take a look at the first-round matchups in the Western Conference, as well as what to expect from the two teams in action. The playoffs begin on Wednesday, April 17.

Central Division:

CLEVELAND, OH - FEBRUARY 22: Milwaukee Admirals forward Eeli Tolvanen (11) on the ice during the first period of the American Hockey League game between the Milwaukee Admirals and Cleveland Monsters on February 22, 2019, at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

Chicago Wolves (44-22-6-4) vs 4. Grand Rapids Griffins (38-27-7-4)

The Wolves have the identity of a prototypical postseason club: they are a physical and experienced unit with good goaltending and even better coaching. It helps when they also have speed, skill, and depth, with four players (Daniel Carr, T.J. Tynan, Brooks Macek, and Tomas Hyka) on the active roster registering more than 0.9 points per game.

They led the Western Conference in goals for (250) and were second in fewest goals against (199). Head coach Rocky Thompson has done a marvelous job for the Vegas Golden Knights' affiliate since taking the job in the summer of 2017, after leading the Windsor Spitfires to the Memorial Cup title.

While the Wolves have some size on their blueline with Nic Hague (4th-ranked Vegas prospect), Jake Bischoff (5th) and Griffin Reinhart (16th), they lost the bulk of their offensive contribution from their rearguards when Erik Brannstrom departed for the Senators organization in the Mark Stone trade.

Grand Rapids comes in with their own set of issues, the most notable of which is their freezing cold home stretch during which the Griffins lost their last nine games of the regular season (eight in regulation). There was no real reason for this besides a plain late-season struggle, as most of their two-way players are still with the club, and there is no lack of talent.

Regardless, the Griffins have proven twice during their seven-year stretch of playoff appearances that there is a potential championship run within them. The 2013 and 2017 Calder Cup champions have the experience and depth to make a run regardless of the poor final stretch.

The Griffins will have to limit penalties due to their division-worst 78.5% penalty kill percentage, while also playing well at five-on-five, on account of their power-play being mostly ineffective during the regular season (14.2%).

Prospects to Watch:

CHI: C Cody Glass (1st): Glass has perhaps the highest hockey IQ of any 2017 NHL Draft picks, and scored twice (with a game-high six shots on goal) in his professional debut on Friday, April 5.

CHI: G Oskar Dansk (14th): The netminder had a superb regular season (26-9-4, 2.47, .911) and looks to be the goalie of choice for Thompson and crew heading into the 2019 postseason.

GRG: RW, Filip Zadina (1st): The sixth-overall pick in last June's draft made an ambitious jump to the AHL this season, and at 18, performed well (59-16-19-35). His speed and shooting will be a big part of any possible turnaround for the Griffins this postseason.

GRG: D Joe Hicketts (11th): He isn't as noticeable as other prospects on the Grand Rapids blueline, but Hicketts had a solid 2018-19 campaign (64-3-24-27). The undersized defenseman packs a punch for the Griffins and is very patient with the puck.

Prediction: Wolves in four games.

Milwaukee Admirals (36-24-14-2) vs 3. Iowa Wild (37-26-8-5)

After missing the postseason last year, the Admirals are back with a vengeance and are looking for their first Calder Cup since 2004. The Nashville Predators' primary affiliate has done most of their winning this season on the back of youthful and speedy prospects, which is often times a key to success in the playoffs.

Four of their top-five regular season scorers were on a team's top 20 prospects list in our preseason farm system rankings (Adam Helewka, Anthony Richard, Alexandre Carrier, Eeli Tolvanen). The Admirals are spearheaded by youth and electric forechecking assertiveness, which can be a lethal combination in the playoff hockey atmosphere.

It helps when you come into the first round on a red hot winning streak. In a tight Central Division postseason race, Milwaukee went 11-0-2-1 to end their season, fighting from seventh in the Central to second-place and home-ice advantage in round one.

The Wild, on the other hand, have been carried by some savvy and experienced veterans like Cal O'Reilly, Gerald Mayhew, and Kyle Rau, as well as a dynamic goaltending duo of All-Star Kaapo Kahkonen and AHL Player of the Week Andrew Hammond. But they won't have to lean on goaltending and experience all postseason long.

Head coach Tim Army has emphasized speed and hard work in the neutral zone all year long, and systemically, the Wild seem ready for the test. In addition, the Minnesota Wild re-assigned forwards Ryan Donato, Jordan Greenway, and Luke Kunin down to Iowa after the NHL season ended in St. Paul. The trio will assist in generating that speed and scoring from the top lines, pushing nominal top six forwards into middle six roles and thus providing great depth to the offensive attack.

The most intriguing matchup to watch in this first-round series is special teams, specifically the Iowa power-play versus the Milwaukee penalty kill. The Wild posted the second-best power play percentage in the league (23.8%) in the regular season, but will line up against an Admirals' penalty kill unit that erased a Western Conference-high 85% of penalties. Army and fellow first-year head coach Karl Taylor will have their hands full of each other's high-end special teams groups in this one.

Prospects to Watch:

MIL: RW Eeli Tolvanen (1st): Though the Finn didn't have the year expected from the Nashville top prospect, Tolvanen was great down the stretch. His timely scoring and playmaking will no doubt be a factor in the playoffs.

MIL: D Alexandre Carrier (8th): His offensive output has always been there, but in his third full AHL year, the 5-11" playmaker evolved as a complete d-man. His gaps and stick-quickness have taken major strides, and in a top-four role, will be essential to any long playoff run in Milwaukee.

IA: G Kaapo Kahkonen (7th): Kahkonen has had himself a splendid first season in the North American pros, and depending on his role in the playoffs (keep Hammond in mind), he could be playing for a spot with the NHL club next season.

IA: LW Jordan Greenway (3rd): Coming off a full season with Minnesota, Greenway's presence post re-assignment has already been felt (5-3-3-6) down the stretch. A massive and skilled forward, the 22-year-old plays a playoff style of hockey.

Prediction: Admirals in five games.

Pacific Division:

Bakersfield Condors (42-21-3-2) vs 4. Colorado Eagles (36-27-4-1)

The Condors made history midway through the 2018-19 season when they stormed through a 17-game winning streak, the second-longest undefeated run in the history of the AHL. They were lifted to the summit of the Pacific Division after being outside of a postseason spot before the streak, which speaks to their depth and attitude.

First-year Condors Tyler Benson (4th) and Cooper Marody (5th) have carried the club for the better part of the season, and the two leading Bakersfield scorers are extremely dangerous on the power play, where 43 of their combined 130 points have come, helping the Condors' man-advantage operate at a division-best 20.5% clip.

The Condors will have to lean on the aforementioned duo, as what they have in top-end skill, they lack in scoring depth. Bakersfield's next-leading point scorer after Benson (66) and Marody (64) is Joe Gambardella, who is 16 points shy of the top two. Along with Josh Currie, these four are the only ones on the roster with more than 40 points this season.

The Eagles, on the other hand, needed final-weekend drama and help to clinch a postseason spot. They won their final regular season game over San Jose and saw division rival Tucson lose an hour later to grab the fourth spot in the Pacific by one point.

Late-season grinds like that can inspire a team, though, and Colorado has a solid mix of veterans and young guns to generate momentum with in its first year as an AHL franchise. AHL ringers like forward Andrew Agozzino and defenseman David Warsofsky have been leaders at their respective positions and have alleviated the pressure on the Martin Kaut and Nicolas Meloche types for high-stakes moments like this: the first round of the Calder Cup Playoffs.

They have an elite penalty kill (84.1%), accrued after a lot of practice, as they also accumulated a Western Conference-high 1,114 penalty minutes in the regular season. The club will have to remain disciplined to have a shot in the first round, as they can ill afford to line the Condors up with power play opportunities.

Prospects to Watch:

BAK: D Caleb Jones (14th): After a frustrating rookie season in 2017-18, Jones has established himself as a top-pair fixture with much-improved two-way reliability, and still has his offensive chops ready to go.

BAK: LW Tyler Benson (4th): Plagued by injuries for much of his young career, Benson has finally stayed healthy for an extended period of time and is showing everyone just how good he is this season.

COL: RW Martin Kaut (4th): Another 19-year-old in the AHL, Kaut is highly intelligent and is due to start scoring goals after an unsustainably unlucky 9.7 shooting percentage during the season. He has been solid in all three zones this season, but the Eagles might need him to take another step up.

COL: LW A.J. Greer (18th): The former second-round draft selection had the best year of his pro career after inconsistencies before 2018-19, and his combination of physicality and smarts are a sight to behold.

Prediction: Condors in four games.

San Jose Barracuda (39-22-3-4) vs 3. San Diego Gulls (36-27-4-1)

The Barracuda have a set of advantages and disadvantages coming into their matchup with their rivals down Interstate-5 in California. One pro is their higher place in seeding, which grants home-ice rights, but a major disadvantage is their NHL parent club, the San Jose Sharks, being tied up in a playoff race.

At any time, some of the Barracuda's most important contributors can be recalled and leave the AHL team flat, such as occurred with Monday's promotion of Dylan Gambrell, the Sharks' third-ranked prospect and the 'Cuda's fourth-leading scorer. However, this club is still very skilled, especially from the blue line going forward. Nick DeSimone is one of the finest offensive defensemen in the league, and Kyle Wood is a rock in his own zone.

Unheralded forward prospects like Alexander True and Francis Perron have jumped into the spotlight this season and can provide plus value as the team's top two scorers in the regular season.

After missing the playoffs on the last night of the 2017-18 season, the Gulls cleared the playoff bubble and secured a return appearance to the postseason this spring. The club has been led by several once-valued prospects that were given up on by their previous franchises (Sam Carrick, Chase De Leo, Justin Kloos), as well as emerging home-grown prospects like Sam Steel and Troy Terry.

Either way, this team is pretty young and just as exciting. Though Terry is done for the season (non-displaced leg fracture), Steel and other top prospects like Kalle Kossila and Max Jones will have to carry the water of a rather juvenile club.

The Gulls scored the second-most goals in the division (239), are solid on special teams (20.3 PP%, 80.9 PK%), and have solid veteran goaltending with Kevin Boyle and Jeff Glass in net. This is a team without a clear, deadly weakness. They also have the same amount of wins at home as they do away from San Diego (18) which will pay off when the series shifts to Northern California.

Prospects to Watch:

SJ: LW Francis Perron (not ranked): Packaged as part of the Erik Karlsson trade, the forward has been another reason as to why the Sharks won the September transaction. On the Barracuda top line, the 22-year-old has been better than ever in the regular season.

SJ: C/LW Jayden Halbgewachs (12th): The leading scorer in the WHL last season had a major test jumping into the pros, and it all pertained to whether he will be able to score at will in the AHL, as he did in junior. While he didn't have the best regular season on offense, a big playoff run in the San Jose top-six can help his case.

SD: C Sam Steel (1st): Though Steel has not had an ideal season after making the big-league club out of training camp, he still posted solid numbers as a 21-year-old in the AHL (53-20-21-41). He can impact the game with or without the puck with his great rink sense and beautiful shot.

SD: D Josh Mahura (6th): Mahura has made monumental leaps to his defensive game after being mostly an offensive specialist in the WHL, and should pencil into the bottom-four of the San Diego postseason lineup.

Prediction: Gulls in four games.

How the Rest of the West Playoffs Will Unfold:

Western Conference Semifinals: Milwaukee Admirals over Chicago Wolves, 4-2.

Bakersfield Condors over San Diego Gulls, 4-1.

Western Conference Finals: Bakersfield Condors over Milwaukee Admirals, 4-3

AHL West Report: Life without Brannstrom, Kahkonen living the Wild life, plus much more

Tom Dorsa — Fri, 08 Mar 2019 12:55:35 +0000

With the National Hockey League's annual trade deadline falling in late February, the teams in the American Hockey League are prone to change from the fall out. Prospects being shipped from one place to another with a flurry of deals can change the face of that star youngster's career, as well as the fate of their respective teams.

Youthful players have to prove their worth with new teams, while pre-established players in the same dressing room have to fight for an increase in ice time. All of this battling occurring while the team prepares itself to ink fresh NCAA and junior hockey graduates to late-season ATOs can make for a hectic scene for fans and scouts alike.

So, in this piece, we'll check in on the best and brightest prospects in the AHL's Central Division, one of two divisions in the Western Conference.

Chicago Wolves (Vegas Golden Knights)

CLEVELAND, OH - JANUARY 26: Chicago Wolves defenceman Nic Hague (2) plays the puck during the second period of the American Hockey League game between the Chicago Wolves and Cleveland Monsters on January 26, 2019, at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

Life without Erik Brannstrom -- who was sent to Ottawa as part of the Mark Stone trade -- might be hard to adjust to for the Chicago Wolves, but luckily, the Golden Knights have stockpiled a bounty of top prospects playing in the AHL.

Especially Nic Hague (fourth in our preseason rankings of Vegas prospects), who has done yeoman's work in keeping the Wolves atop the Central Division standings, taking on heavy, all-situation minutes in the wake of the Brannstrom trade. His skating is still a big issue, and players can drive past the lefty blueliner pretty easily, but his raw, 6-6" size makes Hague (10-14-24) nearly unbeatable low in the zone, where he shuts down the cycle well and forces opposing forwards into turnovers.

Goaltender Oskar Dansk (14th) doesn't quite have the stats to show it, but the technical aspects of his game have improved in the AHL this season. He is moving well laterally and staying on his feet to challenge shots, as well as becoming a better puck-handler. At 25 years old, Dansk (17-9-1, 2.86 GAA, .896 Sv%) has little development left to do, and instead should settle into an NHL backup role eventually, when his health will cooperate.

Other defensemen of interest are Jake Bischoff (5th) and Zach Whitecloud (12th), who are now both playing up in the lineup thanks to the absence of Brannstrom. Bischoff (2-9-11) is a solid two-way guy with potential to man an NHL second-unit power-play, based on his plus foot speed and creativity, but his willingness to take hits and his improved gaps and reads have led to more defensive zone deployment this season. He has been called up by the Golden Knights a few times already but has yet to see NHL ice time.

Whitecloud (6-17-23) has a lower ceiling than Bischoff, but arguably a far higher floor. The 6-2" defenseman is seeing power play time for the Wolves as he has worked on his assertiveness offensively, and is already a very well-rounded d-man he works hard in the defensive zone and has a very active stick. The first NCAA free agent signing in Knights history is due for a recall.

Iowa Wild (Minnesota Wild)

Though the Iowa Wild have been a steady force near the summit of the Central Division standings this season, their team is led mostly by pro hockey veterans, and few top prospects are really shining for this club. Iowa's three leading scorers are Cal O'Reilly (32 years old), Gerald Mayhew (26), and Kyle Rau (26), while top-tier prospects Luke Kunin (2nd) and Jordan Greenway (3rd) have essentially graduated to the NHL.

However, goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen (7th) has been perhaps the class of AHL netminding this season, and after an All-Star Classic appearance, has continued his torrid 2018-19 season. The 22-year-old has been dynamic behind a relatively thin defensive core, using his enhanced play-reading abilities and athleticism to carry the load for the club.

Grand Rapids Griffins (Detroit Red Wings)

Not much has gone right for the Detroit Red Wings this season, but if anything has, it is the development of their top-tier prospects. Unlike most rebuilding teams, who will have their prospects marinate in the junior leagues for years, Detroit has shown a willingness to give guys like Filip Zadina (1st), Michael Rasmussen (3rd), and Filip Hronek (7th) a chance to prove themselves in the pro ranks at a young age.

It is an admirable development strategy, one counter to their traditional practice of slow-walking prospect development, and the results have been promising to this point, with Zadina's curious 2018-19 season leading the charge. After a very slow start, the 2018 draft's sixth-overall selection started funneling shots on goal and using his plus-plus foot speed to impact games. He has been a solid power-play option and a middle-sixer whose Griffins run specific sets so as to utilize his speed and deft hands.

A guy on the opposite spectrum is fellow forward Givani Smith (18th), whose lack of top-end skill has really shown this season. A former second-round pick taken, seemingly, for his fiery physical game, which has paid off on the Grand Rapids penalty kill, Smith (4-3-7) has struggled in any role besides that shorthanded deployment. He is an alright skater, but his usage on Grand Rapids' fourth-line (when he isn't being healthy scratched), is pretty indicative of his shortcomings.

Texas Stars (Dallas Stars)

After being a black ace for the Texas Stars' run to the Calder Cup Finals last season, goaltender Philippe Desrosiers has had a memorable stretch as of late. He spent considerable time in the ECHL to start the season, as he did last season, but has enjoyed a resurgence as a split-starter with fellow netminder Landon Bow in the Texas crease.

Desrosiers (not ranked) has appeared in nine out of Texas' last 12 games, and in that stretch, has posted a 2.43 GAA and .913 Sv%. He has been noticeably better at reading plays, and comes out to the lip of the crease to challenge opposing shooters more often.

Undrafted, free-agent signing Joel L'Esperance (not ranked) has lit up the AHL this season, to the tune of 29 goals. The big-bodied, versatile centerman has earned a recall to Dallas and has appeared in six NHL contests, just a year removed from signing an ATO out of Michigan Tech. Though L'Esperance (29-15-44) likely will never be a pure scorer at the NHL level, his offensive skills are underrated, and he can fill out a second power-play unit for a long time.

Another surefire NHLer, Roope Hintz (9th) is essentially finished with AHL hockey and has graduated to Dallas. It's a well-deserved promotion for perhaps the best pure skater in the organization, as his foot speed, stride length, and top speed are all well above league-average. The former second-round draft pick (9-13-22 in the AHL) has a wicked wrist shot and also quite a bit of chemistry with Denis Gurianov, which could help accelerate the development of the Russian.

Rockford IceHogs (Chicago Blackhawks)

After being squeezed out of ice time due to a resurgent Blackhawks team making a late-season playoff push, youthful defenseman Henri Jokiharju was assigned to Rockford and immediately became an impact player in an AHL team in a tight postseason race of their own. The former WHLer (2nd) has posted 12 points (1-11-12) in 13 games since being sent down.

Though he could stand to better take a hit, his skating, shot, defensive intelligence, and transitional game are at an NHL level at just 19 years old. He is probably better suited to get increased ice time with the IceHogs than to play on the third pair in Chicago, as the Blackhawks brass want the Finn to develop into an all-around defenseman, similar to (though with not as high a ceiling as) Duncan Keith.

Though his 15-game ride in the NHL was underwhelming, centerman Luke Johnson (19th) has taken major strides in his development this season. Mostly a two-way defensive forward with some creativity, Johnson (13-13-26) has become more assertive on offense and has earned himself some time on the Rockford second power play unit. His NHL game will be more of honing in on his best qualities, the Marcus Kruger-esque fourth-line checking role.

Milwaukee Admirals (Nashville Predators)

Though the Admirals lost one of their leading scorers, Emil Pettersson, in a trade with the Coyotes, they acquired forward Adam Helewka in the same deal, and Helewka (17th in Arizona's preseason prospect rankings) has been money for the thin Milwaukee forward core. Though he can be inconsistent and now joins a more stacked organization, the Canadian forward remains very intriguing.

With 11 points (4-7-11) in 10 games since joining the club, Helewka has been driving play at 5-on-5 with his creativity and hustle, though his skating is a major issue. He has a goal-scoring package to him, and he kills penalties for the Admirals, making him a very useful AHL player, even if he has a limited NHL-caliber ceiling.

Defenseman Alexandre Carrier (8th) continues to be an assist machine, and a forward's best friend at even strength and on the power play. As an undersized defenseman with middle-pair potential, his game will have to be one of that style, and his puck-moving skills and foot quickness fall in line with that. Luckily, that's just what Nashville asks of its defensemen in the Peter Laviolette system, and his playing style can help the NHL team in that regard.

Manitoba Moose (Winnipeg Jets)

With a team that has lost some top prospects over the course of the season, such as Kristian Vesalainen (1st), Jack Roslovic (2nd), Mason Appleton (3rd), and Sami Niku (4th), Michael Spacek (9th) has been leading the way. The 2015 fourth-rounder has zeroed in on becoming a more well-rounded player this season, and has focused less on shooting and more on playmaking.

For a guy whose shot is a weapon on the power play, his commitment to improving as a passer has shown so far in 2018-19, as he is on pace for a career high in points (8-26-34) by virtue of those 26 helpers. His hockey sense plays up his average skillset, and he probably is best suited for a depth shooting role. Though he has an undersized frame, he has been solid as a checking-line forward at times.

Though the speed and energy of JC Lipon (20th) can be infectious at times, he has been stagnant as a prospect and it is hard to make anything of him. After experiencing a nine-game NHL trial three seasons ago, he has not been back to the top league since, and at 25, he really can't do any more improving.

He lacks high-end skills to compliment his speed, and has embraced the role of a fighter on his team, which can often be a death sentence for a young player's future. Once a depth forward for the Canadian World Junior Championships team, Lipon (10-14-24) looks more like a career AHLer than anything at this stage in his development.

San Antonio Rampage (St. Louis Blues)

The top-rated European prospect from the 2017 draft, Klim Kostin has taken a pretty considerable step backwards in a 2018-19 season that has been anything but good to San Antonio. Kostin (2nd) has been a quiet player offensively, has taken a ton of penalties, and is not being nearly as assertive from a physical standpoint.

There is still a lot of promise in Kostin, who is seen by the Blues as an untouchable prospect, especially considering he is only 19 years old and this is already his second full AHL season. However, Kostin (7-11-18) will need to ramp us his intensity in the offensive zone and his willingness to shoot the puck to live up to the initial hype. He will never be an elite skater, but he can be a go-to power forward.

Jordan Kyrou (3rd) has been a bright spot on an otherwise bleak Rampage team this season, leading the club with 41 points (16-25-41) in as many games, carrying with him his offseason prowess from his junior days. However, Ville Husso (7th) has been worrisome and horrid this season.

Husso is supposed to be one of the best goaltending prospects in the sport, but was surpassed on the Rampage depth chart and outperformed by Jordan Binnington and Jared Coreau. Husso (6-14-0, 3.45, .881) has the raw tools, but has lost a step in terms of play-reading and competitiveness.

AHL Notebook: Central Division

Tom Dorsa — Wed, 02 Jan 2019 13:45:38 +0000

December is a big month for young prospects. The World Junior brings opportunities for the world's best under-20 hockey pupils, while those who don't get the nod to compete internationally can earn a recall to the NHL -- or an expanded role in the AHL -- to fill the absence of those who do.

Now in the middle part of the season, coaches around the AHL have solidified their lineups for the long haul and have committed to deploying their organization's best prospects in the ways that suit their game best. The first couple of months of the season are a feeling-out period, but once the youngsters in the locker room have made their mark, they are given the space and time they need to develop.

This is a familiar case in the AHL's Central Division, where a wide assortment of the game's top prospects are spending their development days and being given an increased role with their respective teams.

In this notebook article, we will take a look at the Central Division of the world's top minor league and highlight the month of some prospects playing in the eight-team classification.

Chicago Wolves (Vegas Golden Knights)

Things must be pretty easy when you're 10-0-1-0 in your last 11 games and the top-ranked team in the Western Conference.

SAN JOSE, CA - SEPTEMBER 22: Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Erik Brannstrom (12) enters the zone during the San Jose Sharks game versus the Vegas Golden Knights on September 22, 2018, at SAP Center at San Jose in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Matt Cohen/Icon Sportswire)

For anyone that might have taken in a Team Sweden game at the World Junior Championships, yes, Erik Brannstrom is for real. As a rookie in the AHL, Brannstrom (3rd in Vegas preseason prospect rankings) leads the Wolves in points by a defensemen with four goals and 16 assists in 24 games.

The Swede is perhaps the best skater in the Golden Knights' organization -- at any position -- and is using his legs to wreak havoc for the first-place Wolves. Brannstrom plays a game that seemingly translates well to the NHL; fast-paced, smart, visionary, and speedy. He still has some work to do on the defensive side of the game.

Alongside him on the Chicago blueline are two other heralded prospects, Nic Hague (4th) and Zach Whitecloud (12th), who have each had stellar debut seasons in the AHL. Hague, a prolific two-way defenseman during his time in the OHL, has demonstrated what made him dangerous in junior by using his 6-6" frame to dislodge opponents and immediately go forward with the puck.

Hague (9-8-17 in 33 games) has an absolute laser of a shot, but could stand to improve his passing skills just a bit. Whitecloud (4-12-16 in 31 games) has been a mature, steady force on an otherwise very young defense, and the free agent signing out of the NCAA is perhaps the best defensive defenseman out of the three mentioned here, and possesses quick hands to boot.

Iowa Wild (Minnesota Wild)

Minnesota's second-ranked prospect got the recall to the NHL this month as Luke Kunin (8-7-15 in 21 AHL games) was plucked out of the minors. As someone who can impact the game through skating and energy, Kunin has not been all that impressive in the NHL this season (0-1-1 in eight games). Still, with the room to grow, Kunin can be a key player, and I wouldn't be surprised if he has already played his last AHL game of the season.

Another prospect who has had some growing pains is Louis Belpedio (5th). The NCAA-made defenseman contributed much to the Miami Ohio offensive attack before turning pro, but has not made the transition the AHL very easily. Belpedio (3-7-10 in 32 games) has, however, impressed as a two-way force, as he moves the puck well and is as mobile as anyone else playing in Des Moines. As a right-hander, Minnesota would be smart to scoop him up at any time.

Speaking of World Junior prowess, goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen -- a gold medalist as the backstop of the 2016 Finland squad -- has had a pretty solid month on top of a strong first North American pro season. Kahkonen (7th) is 8-4-4 with a 2.50 GAA and .917 Sv% this season, and both of those rate stats are good for top ten in the whole league.

Grand Rapids Griffins (Detroit Red Wings)

While Filip Zadina is gone representing the Czech Republic at the World Juniors, someone has to fill the void for the Griffins. Unfortunately for the Red Wings brass, most of Grand Rapids' top players this season have been seasoned veterans with no chance to help in a rebuild, like Chris Terry, Carter Camper, and Matt Puempel.

Detroit's reality is that a lot of their top prospects are either playing in the NHL or are too far away from turning pro right now. Michael Rasmussen (3rd), Dennis Cholowski (7th), and Filip Hronek (8th) are all playing with the Red Wings as I write this down.

Zadina (1st) has been a solid offensive force (8-9-17 in 27 games), but other than that, it's been a mixed bag. Dominic Turgeon (19th) has shown what his ceiling is in his time with Grand Rapids this season (3-8-11 in 34 games), just a fourth-line NHL center or extra body on a good top-tier team, while defenseman Joe Hicketts (11th) has improved since his underwhelming sophomore season with a stat sheet that shows his ceiling (1-8-9 in 25 games).

Hicketts can be a good third-pair defenseman if he can work to overcome his dismal physical game, at 5-8", 180lbs. His positioning away from the puck is getting better, as is his play low in the zone and against the boards.

Texas Stars (Dallas Stars)

Gavin Bayreuther returned to action with the Texas Stars for two games at the end of the month after spending a month and a half with Dallas. A hot commodity out of college, Bayreuther (13th), in his second pro season, has developed into a servicable two-way defenseman who has improved his blueline defense and overall reading of the ice.

In a goaltending system stacked with NCAA stars (former and current), unsigned free agent Landon Bow (unranked) has stolen the show with Texas. Bow had dominated what was supposed to be a shared crease between him and Hobey Baker nominee Colton Point, with 23 starts in Texas' first 31 games. Bow's combination between size (6-5") and composure gives him an NHL starter ceiling.

Denis Gurianov (8th) and Roope Hintz (9th) have bounced back and forth between Dallas and Texas this season, with each performing exceptionally in the AHL. Gurianov (9-19-28 in 23 games) and Hintz (8-11-19 in 17 games) are both playing at over a point-per-game pace, mostly playing on a Stars forward line together.

Milwaukee Admirals (Nashville Predators)

TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 22: Nashville Predators right wing Eeli Tolvanen. (Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)

While not the highest-profile prospect in the Predators system, Anthony Richard has been one of the most impressive over the last season and a half. Richard (9th) leads the team in goals and points (12-9-21 in 31 games) by playing the same way he played in his heyday in the QMJHL; fast, pesky, and energetic.

If the Predators weren't as stacked as they are at forward, Richard could be an instant recall. He has a hard shot, has played all three forward positions, and plays both sides of special teams.

Eeli Tolvanen (1st) has earned himself a promotion to Nashville before the Predators loaned him to the Finnish WJC team. Tolvanen's creativity, vision, and electric shot were the main spark of a somewhat potent Admirals lineup, as he had posted four goals and eight assists in 24 games before the recall.

The 24-year-old Emil Pettersson (13th) has put himself on the Predators radar late into his prospective development, as the versatile and intelligent center has seven goals and 13 assists in 34 games. His smarts have always been the main draw to him, but his offensive touch and foot speed have improved and now, he seems like a legitimate NHL prospect, rather than just Elias Pettersson's brother.

Defenseman Fredric Allard (14th) has contributed much to the offensive attack, in a way that Nashville fans are accustomed to out of blueliners. Allard is a physically smaller defenseman, but one who makes up for it with skating speed, smarts, and consistency (sounds a lot like Ryan Ellis, P.K. Subban, and Roman Josi, hmm?). His 18 points (3-15) lead all Admirals blueliners.

Rockford IceHogs (Chicago Blackhawks)

Derek King absorbing the Rockford head coaching job after Jeremy Colliton replaced Joel Quenneville at the helm for the Blackhawks is just one of many trickle-down effects of the Blackhawks' ongoing re-tooling. The IceHogs have been impacted by many of those effects, with the coaching shuffle being the biggest.

Rockford has dropped from third to sixth in the division since Colliton's promotion, and that's a bummer for fans in Winnebago County, Illinois, but the prospects playing with the club are still performing well.

Dylan Sikura (3rd) has earned a recall to Chicago, but had torn AHL defenses up with his speed, hands, and flashiness before. Sikura (9-9-18 in 26 games) was a main cog in the Rockford lineup from the minute he stepped onto the ice at the BMO Harris Bank Center, but he is likely finished playing in the AHL. That's how talented he is.

Victor Ejdsell (7th) has been decent for a very cold IceHogs offense, chipping in four goals and nine assists in 27 games. The power forward plays a game typical of players his size (6-5", 214lbs) and seems like a guy who could headman a good third line in the NHL. As the return in the Ryan Hartman trade, Ejdsell has some pretty big shoes to fill.

San Antonio Rampage (St. Louis Blues)

Jordan Kyrou at the 2016 NHL Draft in Buffalo, NY on Saturday June 25, 2016. Photo by Aaron Bell/CHL Images

After a standout performance in last year's World Junior Championship, the Blues sent Klim Kostin to Vancouver for the 2019 WJC in hopes of it revitalizing his troublesome 2018-19 campaign with San Antonio.

Kostin (2nd) has all the tools to make crazy stuff happen on every shift, headlined by a big power forward-esque frame, a splendid shot, and great technical skating. However, Kostin has just five goals and six assists in 28 AHL games this season, as the Blues' 2017 first-rounder has struggled with positioning away from the puck. He isn't getting into the greasy areas offensively and letting his body create chances for him.

One heralded St. Louis prospect that has done exceptionally well this season is forward Jordan Kyrou (3rd), who paces the Rampage in goals (nine) and points (22) despite having played fewer games (21) than about anyone else on the roster.

The once electric OHL scoring machine is doing exactly what made him lethal with Sarnia, in letting his smooth skating and lanky, long reach set the tone for him and his line. Given that he can play all three forward positions and has the speed that few in the Blues organization have, Kyrou is a must-watch guy.

Manitoba Moose (Winnipeg Jets)

After the Jets sent top-ranked Kristian Vesalainen back to Europe for more seasoning, fellow impact prospect Mason Appleton took over the spotlight. The Michigan State alum has been incredible in his second AHL season after scoring 66 points in 76 games last season, which finished fourth in scoring.

Though he has bounced up and down between the Moose and Winnipeg Jets, Appleton (3rd) has been a consistent and lethal offensive force in the AHL when he has been present. With eight goals and 10 assists in 19 games, the right winger has been as effective shooting the puck as distributing it, despite having a reputation as a pass-first guy. His skating was severely flawed in his draft year but is now a strong suit, as his pivoting and acceleration are NHL-level.

Rookie defenseman Logan Stanley (6th) has not had as easy of a transition from juniors to the pros. The 6-7" behemoth is noticeably -- and understandably -- slow in adjusting to the AHL and hasn't been able to contribute in many ways (2-3-5 in 27 games).

A seventh-round draft pick in 2015, defenseman Sami Niku bursted onto the scene as one of the best d-men in the AHL during his rookie season last year. Niku is the prototypical modern defenseman, as his puck-moving skills and skating ability are as good as any defenseman -- at any level -- in the Winnipeg organization. This year with Manitoba, Niku (4th) has reinforced that belief, chipping in 2-8-10 in 17 games.

OHL Playoff Preview: Greyhounds pacing the pack

Brock Otten — Thu, 22 Mar 2018 20:51:07 +0000

The 2018 Ontario Hockey League playoffs kick off this week after the regular season wrapped up this past weekend. Heading into the playoffs, the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds are the clear favorites to come out of the OHL and represent the league at the Memorial Cup in Regina. They have spent the vast majority of the season as the top ranked team in the CHL, one of only two teams to chart the entire season (along with Blainville-Boisbriand of the QMJHL). But competition is always fierce and there are no sure bets in the OHL. Let us now take a look at each first round match-up.

Eastern Conference

#1 - Hamilton Bulldogs vs. #8 - Ottawa 67’s

Season Series: Hamilton leads 5-0

Will Bitten of the Hamilton Bulldogs. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Analysis: The Conference Champion Bulldogs face off against the 67’s after the Steelheads won on the final Sunday, securing the number 7 seed. Hamilton has been the cream of the crop of the Eastern Conference for the vast majority of the season. They have been extremely active in trades this year to give them the best chance of coming out of the East. The Bulldogs added Robert Thomas (St. Louis), Riley Stillman (Florida), Nic Caamano (Dallas), Ryan Moore, and Nic Mattinen (Toronto) to an already stacked lineup, giving Ottawa an extremely daunting challenge in round one. This team rolls three powerhouse offensive lines with Matthew Strome (Philadelphia), Will Bitten (Montreal), Mackenzie Entwistle (Arizona), Marian Studenic (New Jersey), and Brandon Saigeon being other top options. Forward Arthur Kaliyev (2019) is another name to watch. He is the first 16 year old to score 30 goals in the OHL since Alex Galchenyuk and he is a potential lottery pick next year as a power winger. In net, the Bulldogs boast one of the OHL’s most improved players this year in Kaden Fulcher (Detroit).

Kevin Bahl of the Ottawa 67's. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Ottawa, on the other hand, is a very young team. In a few years’ time, they could be Memorial Cup contenders. They could have five players drafted in the first three rounds this year (Kody Clark, Mitchell Hoelscher, Merrick Rippon, Kevin Bahl, and Carter Robertson). Offensively, they are paced by Sasha Chmelevski (San Jose), Travis Barron (Colorado), Austen Keating (2018) and Tye Felhaber. Chmelevski was a much hyped prospect who fell hard at last year’s draft (all the way to the 6th), but he has returned much stronger this season. His play away from the puck has greatly improved and it has taken his game to another level. But for all their talent offensively, the 67’s have had a very difficult time keeping the puck out of their own net this year. Overager Olivier Tremblay has not provided the stability that the team had hoped for when they brought him in early this year.

This one has all the makings of a quick series. This Ottawa team, as talented as they are young, is not yet ready for this type of challenge. The Bulldogs are one of the deepest teams in the OHL and their offensive firepower is likely to overwhelm an inexperienced defense and inconsistent netminder. One particular thing worth watching is the 67’s struggling penalty kill going up against one of the league’s best powerplay units from Hamilton. This has to be troubling for Ottawa because they also happen to be one of the league’s most undisciplined teams. And while Ottawa does have some great young offensive talent, the Bulldogs have one of the oldest defensive units in the league and are likely to limit the offensive chances of the 67’s. I look for Robert Thomas to have a big series here (and a big playoff performance overall). His points per game has taken a big dip since joining the Bulldogs, but I think he explodes this postseason.

Prediction: This Hamilton team is just too experienced and too talented for the 67’s. They have the advantage in nearly every area and should dominate. If Ottawa was getting better goaltending, I would say that they might be able to steal a game or two, but I do not even see that happening. Hamilton in 4.

#2 - Barrie Colts vs. #7 - Mississauga Steelheads

Season Series: Mississauga leads 4-2

Michael McLeod of the Mississauga Steelheads. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: If I was a betting man, I would bet that this is the match-up that Barrie wanted to avoid in the opening round. In fact, it was probably the match-up every team wanted to avoid in the first round. Mississauga has underachieved all season long, but they have shown some signs of finally coming to life the last month or so. Offensive talent is not to be questioned. Their first two lines include names like Michael McLeod (New Jersey), Ryan McLeod (2018), Owen Tippett (Florida), Trent Fox, Albert Michnac (2018), and Mathieu Foget. This group of six matches up well against any top six in the Eastern Conference and it helps to explain why the Steelheads are the third highest scoring team in the Conference. And this excludes their leading scorer, defenseman Nic Hague (Vegas), who was the first OHL defender to score 30+ since Allan Rourke. But keeping the puck out has been a challenge at times. Swedish import and defensive stalwart Jacob Moverare (Los Angeles) has been injured and that has really challenged their younger defensive players to play more minutes than they are ready for. Furthermore, young netminder Jacob Ingham (2018) has had an awful sophomore season that has seen him essentially lose the starting job to Emanuel Vella.

Andrei Svechnikov of the Barrie Colts. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

This is potentially trouble because Barrie is the highest scoring team in the Conference and the 3rd highest scoring in the OHL. Their first line of Andrei Svechnikov (2018), Aaron Luchuk (Ottawa), and Dmitry Sokolov (Minnesota) has been absolutely shredding teams of late. The supporting offensive cast includes guys like Ryan Suzuki (2019), Jason Willms (2018), and Zach Magwood who work extremely hard in all three zones and bring energy that exhausts the opposition so that the first line can go to work. The Colts do not have any stars on the blueline, but they are a tight knit unit who work well with Barrie’s forwards to play a terrific team defense. In net, overager Leo Lazerev starts and while he does not necessarily win any games outright for the Colts, he is a mostly reliable presence. It should be noted that he has yet to win an OHL playoff series in his career and probably goes into this match-up with just as many question marks as Mississauga’s tenders.

There is no question that this is not your average #2 versus #7 seed match-up. This is especially true when you consider the fact that Mississauga largely dominated the season series, winning all three games in the new year by a combined score of 18-10. For whatever reason, the speed of Mississauga’s forwards gives the defense of Barrie a tough time and Lazerev has an .840 save percentage against the Fish this season. This is complicated even more by the fact that Andrei Svechnikov has been suspended for the first four games of the series for a head check. But I admit, I have a tough time picking Mississauga to win this series. I do not trust their defense to be able to handle Barrie’s depth up front. And if these games go to an offensive shootout like they did in the regular season, I think Barrie ends up coming out on top this time. Mississauga’s Mathieu Foget has also been suspended for the first four games of the series and his loss might actually be felt more because of Mississauga’s lack of depth. His acquisition really triggered the turnaround for the team. Barrie also needs to stay out of the box. In the regular season, they gave Mississauga almost double the amount of powerplays that they received and it cost them dearly with the Steelheads clicking at over 30% with the man advantage. If they can stay out of the box, and Lazerev can make a few saves, I still like Barrie to come out on top.

Prediction: The result of this series would not surprise me either way, even with the difference in seeding. But depth is critical in the playoffs and Barrie has the advantage there. I am excited to see how the Svechnikov/Luchuk/Sokolov unit handles the pressure of the playoffs. Svechnikov, in particular, can really cement himself as the #2 prospect available in the draft with a strong postseason performance once he returns from suspension (as long as Barrie does not get swept). Barrie in 7.

#3 - Kingston Frontenacs vs. #6 - North Bay Battalion

Season Series: Kingston leads 3-1

Gabriel Vilardi of the Kingston Frontenacs. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: This is an intriguing match-up because of how differently these two teams approached the OHL season. Kingston brought in Gabe Vilardi (Los Angeles), Max Jones (Anaheim), Cliff Pu (Buffalo), Sean Day (New York Rangers), and Mitchell Byrne at the deadline to bolster an already solid line-up and make them contenders to come out of the East. While they failed to secure a division banner, the results post deadline have been mostly extremely positive. A healthy and re-invigorated Vilardi has provided the biggest boost, as his 1.87 points per game in Kingston is second to only Jordan Kyrou (St. Louis) in the OHL. His strength, on and off the puck, makes him a dominant force in all three zones and the type of player who works to tire and grind out opposing defenses.

Justin Brazeau of the North Bay Battalion. Photo by Terry Wilson /OHL Images,

The North Bay Battalion were sellers at the deadline this year, shipping out veterans Cam Dineen (Arizona), and Brett McKenzie (Vancouver). Those moves only worked to light a fire under the Battalion roster and the team actually improved their record in the New Year thanks to the play of new acquisitions Matthew Struthers (2018), and Jake Henderson, as well as veterans Justin Brazeau (2018), and Adam Thilander (2018). Brazeau, in particular, is a player to watch. The 6-5” winger finished just inside the Top 20 of league scoring and was named as the East’s most underrated player in the recent coaches poll that was released.

If we are measuring up these two teams, we need to give the edge to Kingston in nearly every area. The Fronts lead the season series 3-1, winning the three most recent games (February on). The biggest advantage Kingston has is in net with Jeremy Helvig (Carolina) manning the crease. The overager and veteran netminder has 19 OHL playoff games under his belt and is unquestionably one of the league’s top netminders. Meanwhile, the Battalion will rely on either Christian Propp (2018) or Julian Sime, who have a combined zero OHL playoff appearances. Kingston also has a heavy advantage on special teams, with their powerplay and penalty killing units operating at a higher level. With Robertson and Vilardi operating down low on the powerplay, North Bay is going to need to stay out of the box to have any chance in this series. One wild card to keep an eye on is the health of Max Jones. Jones has been out since the end of January after undergoing surgery on a broken finger. It is likely he returns at some point in these playoffs and he can be a major x-factor.

Prediction: Ultimately, Kingston’s experience and leadership should carry them to a relatively easy victory in this match-up. Gabe Vilardi and Sean Day won a Memorial Cup together last year. Mitchell Byrne won an OHL Championship last year. And Cliff Pu and Max Jones won an OHL Title and Memorial Cup in 2016. Kingston in 5.

#4 - Niagara IceDogs vs. #5 - Oshawa Generals

Season Series: Tied at 1 game apiece

Akil Thomas of the Niagara IceDogs. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: Two teams that do not see a ton of each other match-up in round one. Niagara and Oshawa also happen to be two of the hotter teams in the OHL heading into the playoffs. The IceDogs are a team that rely on speed and energy to play an up tempo and offensively oriented style of game. They get after it on the forecheck and have a powerplay that has been much improved since the acquisition of overager Sam Miletic (Pittsburgh) from London. On top of Miletic, Niagara has a trio of offensive weapons that they rely on in Kirill Maksimov (Edmonton), Akil Thomas (2018), and Ben Jones (Vegas).

Jack Studnicka of the Oshawa Generals. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Oshawa, on the other hand, prefers to slow things down and grind it out in the offensive end. Their fearless leader is Jack Studnicka (Boston), an excellent two-way center who makes an impact in so many different ways. A pair of first time draft eligible forwards support Studnicka; Serron Noel (2018), and Allan McShane (2018). Defenseman Matt Brassard (Vancouver) is also critical to their offensive success. He was one of the highest scoring defenders in the league in the second half and finished the year 7th in defensive scoring.

If we are truly comparing these two teams, it is difficult to determine who has a clear advantage. In goal, the nod should be given to Oshawa and their starter Kyle Keyser (Boston). Keyser has been a stable presence in net this year, definitely more so than Stephen Dhillon who has struggled for Niagara this year, or the inexperienced Colton Incze. Up front, I give the slight edge to Niagara because of their explosiveness and depth. On defense, the two teams boast slightly inexperienced units who are mobile, but can be mistake prone. Ultimately, I see two things possibly tipping the favor in Niagara’s direction. The first is special teams play. As mentioned, Niagara’s powerplay has been performing at a high level lately and Oshawa has one of the league’s worst penalty killing units. The second is home ice advantage, which Niagara owns after finishing the regular season on a 7 game winning streak.

Prediction: With home ice advantage, better special teams play, and a slightly more explosive offense, I like Niagara to win this series. Their goaltending concerns me slightly, but between Dhillon or Incze, they should be able to make enough big saves to at least get the IceDogs into the second round. But this one will be close. Niagara in 7.

Western Conference

#1 - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds vs. #8 - Saginaw Spirit

Season Series: SSM leads 7-1

Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds of the Ontario Hockey League. Photo by Terry Wilson

Analysis: The juggernaut Greyhounds kick off their Memorial Cup push against the Saginaw Spirit, whose five game losing streak to end the season forced them down the standings and into this first round match-up. Sault Ste. Marie has nine NHL draft picks on their roster and two more potential first rounders for 2018. Up front, Boris Katchouk (Tampa Bay), Taylor Raddysh (Tampa Bay), Jack Kopacka (Anaheim), Tim Gettinger (New York Rangers), Barrett Hayton (2018), and the underrated Hayden Verbeek pace the attack. But the real star is OHL 2nd leading scorer Morgan Frost (Philadelphia), one of the breakout stars of this season. On the backend, the Hounds are equally strong, led by Conor Timmins (Colorado), and Rasmus Sandin (2018). Neither seem to make a mistake with the puck and both are just as good in their own end as they are offensively. In net, Matthew Villalta (Los Angeles) has been a steady presence who makes the saves when he needs to.

Evan Cormier of the Saginaw Spirit. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Saginaw’s strength actually starts in net where overager Evan Cormier (New Jersey) keeps the Spirit in a lot of games that they do not deserve to be in. This is important because the Spirit struggle to score goals. They were only one of three teams in the OHL to not score 200 goals on the season and the other two finished dead last in their conferences (Flint and Sudbury). Furthermore, their powerplay was a league worst 14.7%. There is definitely some offensive talent on this team, but the team’s best days are ahead of them as guys like Blade Jenkins (2018), Nicholas Porco (2019), Ryan Stepien (2020), Aidan Prueter (2020), and Damien Giroux (2018) gain experience. In fact, the team’s only NHL drafted forward, Brady Gilmour (Detroit) finished 9th in team scoring.

In all honesty, this series should not be close and is not likely to be close. The Spirit have a talented young roster, but they are not currently an equal to the Greyhounds. Sault Ste. Marie has the advantage in nearly every area except maybe goaltending. Even then, Evan Cormier can only do so much. Heck, we might see the Greyhounds score more shorthanded goals than the Spirit score powerplay goals in the series.

Prediction: I want to say that Evan Cormier can do enough to steal a game for the Spirit in this series, but I cannot even see the Spirit winning a game. The Greyhounds are just too strong. SSM in 4.

#2 - Kitchener Rangers vs. #7 - Guelph Storm

Season Series: Kitchener leads 5-3

Logan Brown of the Kitchener Rangers. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Analysis: This is an interesting first round match-up between two teams that did not end the regular season the way they wanted to. Kitchener, a strong team all season, struggled down the stretch, although managed to hang on to their Division crown. Meanwhile, the Guelph Storm were one of the league’s worst teams in the last few months that saw them lose their grip on the #6 spot in the West. Kitchener loaded up at the deadline by bringing in Logan Brown (Ottawa), Givani Smith (Detroit), Mario Culina, and Austin McEneny. I think it would be fair to say that Kitchener is still waiting to see the best out of three of those four, with Culina playing well so far as a starter. It has been the guys around all season like Adam Mascherin (Florida), Kole Sherwood (Columbus), Joseph Gareffa, Logan Stanley (Winnipeg), and Riley Damiani (2018) that have been driving the team’s success. Moving into the playoffs, it will be about whether the newer faces can finally find chemistry or not. The health of defensive stalwart Connor Hall (Pittsburgh) could also impact the series.

Ryan Merkley of the Guelph Storm. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Guelph, as mentioned, has also struggled down the stretch, especially when it comes to preventing goals. Goaltender Anthony Popovich (2018) appeared to tire of late after seeing a huge jump in workload this season. The defensive group, led by Ryan Merkley (2018), and Dmitri Samorukov (Edmonton) also struggled, to the point where Merkley was a healthy scratch at times down the stretch. The Storm do have a hard working forward group who is capable of icing multiple scoring lines. The offensive leaders are unquestionably Isaac Ratcliffe (Philadelphia) and Cam Hillis (2018), who along with Alexei Toropchenko (St. Louis) form a quality first line.

Looking at this series a little more under the microscope, it is probably closer than people are making it out to be. The special teams match-up pretty well. Neither team has a dominant goaltender that one would qualify as a game-changer (no offense meant to Culina or Popovich). Both teams struggled down the stretch with team chemistry issues. The tipping point for me is experience. The Rangers have the clear advantage there, especially on the defensive end. Guys like Logan Stanley and Austin McEneny, who won a Memorial Cup together with Windsor last year, should really help to stabilize things, even without Connor Hall. I also look for longtime Rangers like Mascherin or Connor Bunnaman (Philadelphia) to really step up offensively to get this team over the first round hump.

Prediction: As mentioned, I feel like Kitchener’s experience advantage will help them come out on top in this series. I also feel that they have a much better team defense approach that likely plays out better for success in the playoffs. Guelph has talent, but they play a very high risk game that, without a ton of playoff experience, could be their undoing. It will be close, but Kitchener in 6.

#3 - Sarnia Sting vs. #6 - Windsor Spitfires

Season Series: Sarnia leads 5-1

Michael DiPietro of the Windsor Spitfires. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Analysis: No offense meant to the rest of the Windsor Spitfires, but this match-up is about two things. The Sarnia offense (2nd best in the OHL) versus the goaltending of Michael DiPietro (Vancouver). The dynamic DiPietro is one of the few goaltenders in the OHL who is capable of stealing a series victory for his team. The Spitfires rebuilt, dealing off the majority of their veterans held over from their Memorial Cup victory last year, but decided to hang on to their star netminder for this reason. They battle hard in the offensive end behind the likes of Curtis Douglas (2018), Cole Purboo (2018), Cody Morgan (2019), Luke Boka, and Matthew MacDougall (2018). And they play smart in their own end thanks to Connor Corcoran (2018), Nathan Staios (2019), Grayson Ladd (2019), and Zach Shankar. But this team has zero NHL drafted players outside of DiPietro and are incredibly inexperienced.

Jordan Kyrou of the Sarnia Sting. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

The Sting, conversely, were one of the biggest buyers throughout this OHL season, bringing in talented veterans like Cam Dineen (Arizona), Jonathan Ang (Florida), and Michael Pezzetta (Montreal). The lifeblood of the team is Jordan Kyrou (St. Louis), the league’s leader in points per game this year and possibly the best offensive player in the OHL. He is currently zero for three in first round appearances and is likely to do everything in his power to finally reach the second round (and beyond). You could likely argue that overager Justin Fazio is the team’s second most important player in the series, especially considering that he has to match-up against DiPietro. The margin for error is slim.

One of Sarnia’s biggest strengths is on the powerplay where Kyrou, Adam Ruzicka (Calgary), and Drake Rymsha (Los Angeles) have a combined 34 powerplay goals this year. Problem is, Windsor takes among the least amount of penalties in the OHL so as long as Windsor can continue to stay out of the box, Sarnia is going to need to beat DiPietro 5 on 5. The question I have is, how will Windsor manage to score goals, at least enough goals to win this 7 game series? It will not be with the man advantage either (likely) as the Sting have the league’s top penalty killing unit. I am slightly worried about Sarnia’s inexperienced defense though, but that concern is more directed towards round two or three (if the Sting advance that far). Sarnia will need big guys like Ruzicka, Pezzetta, Jordan Ernst, and Hugo Leufvenius (2018) to crowd DiPietro’s space as much as possible and really make him uncomfortable. Shoot, shoot, and shoot some more. Windsor fans can tell you, sometimes the best way to beat Michael DiPietro is through sheer luck and bad bounces.

Prediction: As much as I want to predict a Windsor victory, I do not see it in the cards. DiPietro will steal a few games and he will make Sarnia sweat. But the offensive firepower of Sarnia, combined with the inexperience of Windsor’s defense is likely to give the Sting too many scoring chances for the Spitfires’ star netminder to handle. Sarnia in 6.

#4 - Owen Sound Attack vs. #5 - London Knights

Season Series: London leads 4-2

Evan Bouchard of the London Knights. Photo by Terry Wilson/OHL Images.

Analysis: As is usually the case, the 4/5 matchup in the Western Conference looks to be the closest match-up of the first round, and subsequently the most difficult to prognosticate. London traded off the vast majority of their big guns to retool to fight another day. Instead, the team played inspired hockey down the stretch led by a host of younger players eager to make their mark. When talking about London, we have to start with defenseman Evan Bouchard (2018), the lifeblood of the Knights. His 87 points are the highest by a blueliner since Ryan Ellis hit the 100 point mark in 2011. The speedy Alex Formenton (Ottawa) is also playing the best hockey of his OHL career thus far with 12 goals in 14 games to close out the regular season. And you cannot talk about London without mentioning how good the “kid” line of Liam Foudy (2018), Billy Moskal (2018), and Nathan Dunkley (2018) has been since the trade deadline. This trio was challenged to step up their games with increased ice time and they all responded accordingly.

Owen Sound Attack of the Ontario Hockey League. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Owen Sound, on the other hand, was expected to be one of the top teams in the OHL this year but struggled to keep their star players healthy all year and subsequently struggled to perform consistently. That is, until the last few months when they have been, arguably, the OHL’s best. This team is scary good when healthy and they are now finally healthy. They roll three outstanding scoring lines, including a top unit of Jonah Gadjovich (Vancouver), Kevin Hancock (2018), and Nick Suzuki (Vegas) that has been one of the OHL’s best over the last two seasons. They also have one of the OHL’s top offensive blueliners in Sean Durzi (2018), who if he did not get injured, likely could have challenged Bouchard for the defenceman scoring title. It is in net where Owen Sound has struggled this season as Olivier Lafreniere and Mack Guzda (2019) have battled to find consistency. No question, Owen Sound has to have their offense rolling to win because they are not going to win many 2-1 games.

So who has the advantage going into this match-up? Experience wise, the nod has to be given to Owen Sound...and by a wide margin. The Attack are returning the vast majority of a roster that lost in the Conference finals last season. The Knights are an extremely well coached team, but they are relying on a lot of rookies and sophomores in key roles and that can often prove to be a recipe for disaster in the postseason. The deciding factor in this series probably comes down to the goaltending. So long as Owen Sound can get at least adequate goaltending from one of Lafreniere or Guzda, they should win this series. But if their goaltending struggles and team is forced to constantly play catch-up, the series tips in London’s favor, a team with nothing to lose.

Prediction: I have to give the nod to Owen Sound here because now that they are fully healthy, they look like a tough team to stop. This is especially true for a team as inexperienced as London; even if they are extremely talented. The Attack can get the saves they need to win this one, even if London pushes them and makes them sweat. Owen Sound in 6

OHL Finals Prediction

When the field is finally narrowed down to two teams who battle it out for OHL supremacy, I expect those two teams to be the Kingston Frontenacs and the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds.

From the East I like Kingston for a couple reasons. The first is experience. As I already alluded to, they have a lot of players on that roster who have already won a Memorial Cup or OHL Championship (or both). That type of leadership goes a long way in the playoffs. The second is special teams play. The great Scotty Bowman always said combined special teams play was a great indicator of postseason success. Well the Fronts have the best powerplay in the league and the second best penalty kill. The third is goaltending. Jeremy Helvig is a veteran netminder who is about as consistent as they come. I have a ton of confidence in his ability to make saves when he needs to.

From the West, I like the Soo Greyhounds as they have looked about as dominant as anyone in the OHL has over the last few years. Their 116 points is the most since Barrie put up 116 in 2010. This team has it all. Special teams success. Good goaltending. Speed. Physicality. But most of all...depth. Drew Bannister’s players rarely seem to take a shift off and they rarely make mistakes with the puck. That composure at both ends of the ice makes them the favorite.

For the OHL Title, I am taking the Soo Greyhounds to win their first J. Ross Robertson Cup since they won back to back championships in the early 90ś.

State of the CHL: The Ontario Hockey League

Brock Otten — Thu, 25 Jan 2018 16:07:48 +0000

Frontrunners Load Up at the Trade Deadline

Showdown in the East Division

This year’s OHL trade deadline was exceptionally busy with over 40 players and 70 draft picks moved. OHL fans have become accustomed to the proverbial arms race with many teams in the Western Conference loading up at the deadline each year. So it was remarkably refreshing to see two Eastern Conference teams step up and be among the league’s top buyers. And it just so happens that both of these teams, Hamilton and Kingston, play in the East Division.

Kaden Fulcher of the Hamilton Bulldogs. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Hamilton has been the cream of the crop in the Eastern Conference for the majority of this season. Thanks to some great goaltending from Detroit prospect Kaden Fulcher, a deep defensive unit, and balanced scoring, the Bulldogs have held the lead atop the Conference for several weeks and have held a place in the CHL Top 10 for seven weeks running.

It was also the Bulldogs who struck early on, capitalizing on a hot start, by bringing in forwards Nic Caamano (Dallas) and Ryan Moore from Flint in a blockbuster deal. These two helped Hamilton increase their division lead over Kingston to double digits as we approached the deadline. But it didn’t stop Hamilton from continuing to build by adding defenders Riley Stillman (Florida) and Nic Mattinen (Toronto), in addition to London’s Robert Thomas (St. Louis). The Thomas add, in particular, is huge. The gold medalist from the most recent World Junior Hockey Championships is a dynamic offensive player who also happens to be terrific in all three zones and can play in all situations. He gives the Bulldogs one of the top centerman in the entire OHL.

However, do not tell the Frontenacs that the division is locked up already. With overager and Hurricanes prospect Jeremy Helvig in his last OHL season, Kingston decided to go all in and make a run for an OHL Championship. They owe it to their dedicated fan base, having lost in the Conference Semi-finals the last two years. In fact, Kingston has never made a trip to the OHL Finals and hope to re-write that part of history this year.

Gabriel Vilardi of the Kingston Frontenacs. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

Kingston brought in star forwards Gabe Vilardi (Los Angeles), Max Jones (Anaheim), and Cliff Pu (Buffalo) to insulate offensive dynamo Jason Robertson (Dallas). They also added former exceptional status grantee Sean Day (NY Ramgers) to an already large, and menacing blueline. The addition of Vilardi was a risky one, considering he had yet to play this year due to back surgery. But the early results have been fantastic as the Kings’ first rounder is showing little rust and has 14 points in 9 games.

As this article is being written, Hamilton’s lead over Kingston in the division remains double digits with just over 20 games left to play. The two teams will meet only one more time this regular season, on Friday, February 23rd in Kingston. Even if the division may be a tall order for the Frontenacs, they look poised to overcome Barrie or Niagara (who are battling for the Central Division) to take that coveted 3rd spot in the Conference heading into the playoffs. That would mean, pending no upsets, we could see a Hamilton/Kingston Eastern Conference final and that would be one heck of a series.

Catching Up to SSM in the West

Meanwhile, the Western Conference also saw a few teams loading up, in this case to try and catch the Soo Greyhounds atop the standings. While the regular season crown may be a far-fetched goal, Sarnia and Kitchener each brought in a host of talented players in order to push Sault Ste. Marie come playoff time.

Jordan Kyrou of the Sarnia Sting. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Sarnia has been one of the league’s most surprising teams this season. Thanks to superstar Jordan Kyrou (St. Louis), who was leading the league in scoring before leading Canada in scoring at the World Junior Championships, and OA goaltender Justin Fazio, the Sting have been pushing the Greyhounds all season long. It was becoming apparent (especially with Kyrou and Adam Ruzicka [Calgary] away at the WJC’s) that their depth just was not at the same level as the Soo’s. So before their hot start fizzled away, the team went out and brought in Jonathan Ang (Florida), Michael Pezzetta (Montreal), and Cam Dineen (Arizona). This gives them two terrific scoring lines, and the puck moving defender and PP Quarterback that they sorely lacked.

Kitchener, on the other hand, has had a firm grasp on the Midwest Division all season, thanks to the disappointing starts of London and Owen Sound and the rebuild of the Erie Otters. This was despite not having a ton of confidence in their goaltending. It has been the worst kept secret in the league that the Rangers were out to improve their goaltending at this year’s deadline. Fans were shocked when it was not Michael Dipietro (Vancouver), Dylan Wells (Edmonton), or another star netminder brought in, but overager Mario Culina, who had actually spent time with Ryerson University (of USports) earlier this year after he failed to catch on with an OHL team this offseason. Yet the early results have silenced critics and arm-chair scouts. Culina remains perfect with the Rangers and even sported a shutout streak of over 150 minutes recently.

The Rangers also brought in hulking center Logan Brown (Ottawa), veteran defender Austin McEneny, and power forward Givani Smith (Detroit) to ensure that they hold off all on-comers in the division.

The question is, even with the moves Kitchener and Sarnia have made to shore up any weaknesses, are they in the same league (metaphorically of course) as the Greyhounds?

Greyhounds The Team to Beat

That, of course, brings us to the Greyhounds, the top ranked team in the entire CHL, and owners of a 23 game win streak earlier this season. You would be hard pressed to find a single person who believes that any other team in the OHL is the frontrunner for this year’s OHL Championship, even with the bevy of deals made by other competitors.

Rasmus Sandin of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

The Greyhounds boast the league’s current leading scorer in Morgan Frost (Philadelphia). They have the league’s second leading goal scorer in Boris Katchouk (Tampa Bay). They have two of the highest scoring defenders in the league (points per game) in Conor Timmins (Colorado) and Rasmus Sandin (2018). They have the current goals against average leader in Matthew Villalta (Los Angeles) manning the pipes. They have the league’s second best powerplay at over 25%. They also have a remarkable 17 shorthanded goals so far (the Saginaw Spirit have 25 powerplay goals this year as a comparison). Get the drift yet? This is one heck of a dominant team.

Yet, the Hounds were not content to stand pat at this year’s trade deadline. They acquired veterans Taylor Raddysh (Tampa Bay) and Jordan Sambrook (Detroit) from the Erie Otters, who have a combined 89 games of playoff experience. This includes winning an OHL Championship last season. Raddysh showcased terrific chemistry with Boris Katchouk at this year’s World Juniors and will make an already stacked powerplay that much stronger.

The OHL playoffs will begin the week of March 19th and it will be then, and only then, when we will find out if a team can usurp the Greyhounds; if all those moves and all the young assets jettisoned out were worth it. But one thing is certain, the favorite to represent the OHL in Regina at this year’s Memorial Cup is still Sault Ste. Marie.

Don’t Sleep on

Steelheads look to Repeat on Last Year’s miracle second half

Last year, the Mississauga Steelheads were the near unanimous selection to take the OHL’s Eastern Conference in preseason polls. Yet at midseason, they found themselves near the bottom of the Conference. Miraculously, they exploded in the second half, played up to their capability, took the Central Division, and ultimately the Eastern Conference title come playoff time.

Michael McLeod of the Mississauga Steelheads. Photo by Aaron Bell/OHL Images

This year, the Steelheads were picked by many to repeat as Eastern Conference champs and Division winners. Yet again, they had a disappointing start to the year and find themselves near the bottom of their division. Many expected them to sell off a few key assets (like Michael McLeod [New Jersey] or Nic Hague [Vegas]) and rebuild. Instead they stayed the course, made a few minor acquisitions (like Mathieu Foget, Reagan O’Grady, and Cole Carter), and are suddenly blazing up the standings again. Since the Foget deal, the Steelheads are 6-2, with victories against Sault Ste. Marie (ending the latter’s 23 game win streak), Kitchener, Kingston, and division leaders Barrie.

Do they have another remarkable comeback in them? I would say that it is unlikely. Last year, the Central Division was atrocious with Mississauga as the only team above .500. This year, the Barrie Colts and Niagara IceDogs are playing excellent hockey and made some key acquisitions themselves. The better question is, do any of these Eastern Conference contenders want to see the Steelheads in the opening round(s) of the playoff? A very likely scenario could be a first round match-up between Kingston and Mississauga, or a second round match-up with Hamilton. And if the Steelheads continue to close out the regular season on a high note, we may not even be able to consider them as underdogs.

Owen Sound Attack Better than standings show

Another team that has underwhelmed this year is the Owen Sound Attack. They were able to return, fully intact, one of the league’s most dangerous lines from last year; Nick Suzuki (Vegas)-Jonah Gadjovich (Vancouver)-Kevin Hancock. And even though they were losing their captain, Santino Centorame, and their starting goaltender, Michael McNiven (Montreal), the expectation was that they had the depth to counteract those losses.

But it’s been a frustrating year for the Attack and its fans. Injuries have been an issue, especially with Hancock and Gadjovich both missing significant time. And finding a replacement for McNiven has been near impossible. They picked up Zach Bowman from Sudbury this offseason, but he left the team at midseason for personal reasons. Then they recently acquired Olivier Lafreniere from Ottawa, but he has since injured his groin and is out long term. So the reigns have been given to 17 year old rookie Mack Guzda.

However, the Attack are finally healthy again with Hancock returning to the lineup recently. They went out and got Brett McKenzie (Vancouver) from North Bay to improve their second line. Import (and Flyers pick) Maksim Sushko is playing terrific hockey since returning from the World Juniors. And Aidan Dudas (2018) and Sean Durzi are in the middle breakout seasons as stars in the OHL. The team looks to be turning a corner and certainly has the talent and experience to do damage in the playoffs, even if they draw one of the big three (Sault Ste. Marie, Kitchener, or Sarnia) in the first round. Like Mississauga, this is a potentially dangerous team come playoff time; and one capable of pulling off an upset.

Re-Tooling to Fight Another Day

London and Windsor start the cycle

Having already discussed many of the contenders loading up at this year’s deadline, one had to ask, “where are all these players coming from?” The answer this year is rare, as perennial contenders the London Knights and Windsor Spitfires sold off assets. The Knights traded Robert Thomas, Max Jones, Cliff Pu, and Sam Miletic (Pittsburgh), while the Spitfires traded Logan Brown, Gabe Vilardi, Sean Day, and Austin McEneny. While it has not been uncommon for these two to sell off assets, it has been rare for it to occur in the same year. We have to go back to the 2001-02 season (16 years ago) to see neither London nor Windsor with home ice advantage in the opening round of the playoffs. With the Knights and Spitfires currently sitting 4th and 6th (respectively) right now, that is an entirely possible outcome.

Even then, this is not a normal sell-off. We’re looking at two firmly established playoff teams with a chance of finishing in the top four of the Conference, selling off assets. The question is...why? And the answer is the reason why London and Windsor have remained such competitive forces in the OHL over the last 15 years (they combine for five of the last six OHL Memorial Cup victories). Spitfires GM Warren Rychel gave an interview recently where he was asked about the concept of re-tooling. His response was that it made no sense to be in limbo. You either need to be competitive for first, and if you won’t be, then you might as well finish lower in the standings and get assets that can help you finish first again in the near future. This is the credo that the Knights and Spitfires have lived by and it is the reason why they have been able to win so many championships in recent years.

Curtis Douglas of the Windsor Spitfires. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

This year is a perfect example. London and Windsor trade off their best veteran players and pick up three outstanding young players (each), in addition to a boatload of high end draft picks. These young players (like Nathan Dunkley [2018] or Curtis Douglas [2018]) are already good players and they slide into the line-up and contribute. Both London and Windsor now have three recent first round picks (among the top 2001 born players in the province) in their lineups, allowing them to grow together and improve under the tutelage of excellent coaching staffs. With a boatload of draft picks, they also are not afraid to take a chance on the top American players available in hopes that they eventually commit to the Ontario Hockey League. And you better believe that with high selections at this year’s Import Draft, both of these franchises will be selecting high end talents.

That is what separates the Knights and Spitfires from many of the other franchises in the OHL. They hate mediocrity. They aspire for a Championship. And if they do not feel that they can achieve that, they cut and run and bring in as many future assets as they can, even if it means an early playoff exit. It also might mean trading off players who still have potential service time, like Robert Thomas or Gabe Vilardi. If these two return to the OHL next year, they will be among the better players in the league. However, it is also possible that they make their respective NHL rosters and then London and Windsor would have received nothing for them (like the Guelph Storm, who are still feeling the effects of not getting anything for Robby Fabbri a few years ago after he left early for St. Louis).

Other OHL teams become obsessed with merely making the playoffs in hopes that anything can happen. But the way teams load up (call it the NBA super team effect), it’s a pipe dream for most. Would you not rather bring in three quality young players and maybe lose in the first round, than keep your veterans, get swept in the second round and then lose them for nothing when they graduate?

The Race for Quinton Byfield

Erie, Sudbury, & Flint battle for the highly touted youngster

As many teams hunt for a conference crown, division title, and playoff spot, an equally important battle is occurring at the bottom of the OHL standings; the race for the Jack Ferguson recipient. And this year, the crown jewel appears to be quite a special player. His name is Quinton Byfield and he’s a 6-3”, 200lbs center who seems destined to become the league’s next true superstar. Many consider him to be one of the better talents to come out of the province in recent years.

The race for Byfield is occurring between three teams, all of whom have different storylines. Those three teams are the Erie Otters, Sudbury Wolves, and Flint Firebirds.

Erie is rebuilding after four straight years of excellence on the backs of the likes of Connor McDavid, Dylan Strome, and Alex DeBrincat. This includes an OHL Championship last year. A player like Byfield would accelerate the rebuild nicely and spoil the Otters’ fanbase yet again with another potential generational talent.

Sudbury, on the other hand, is stuck in what seems to be a perennial rebuild. They’ve drafted first, second, and seventh the last three years and once again find themselves at the bottom. With new ownership, and new management in place, things are finally starting to look up for this once storied franchise. A dominant power center like Byfield would be just what the doctor ordered to get this team back near the top of the standings, perhaps even as early as next year.

Lastly, Flint is still looking to escape the shadow of the controversy that dominated their inaugural season. 2016/17 saw them take a significant step forward but this year has been a step in the wrong direction and suddenly the team is rebuilding again (after trading away top talent like Nic Caamano, Ryan Moore, and Nic Mattinen). But this is a very talented young team that is bound to explode either next year or the year after. Forgive me if you have heard this before, but Quinton Byfield is the star this franchise needs in order to climb out of mediocrity.

A Broken System

OHL Teams Will Soon Trade for the Unborn

As previously mentioned, over 70 draft picks changed hands this trade deadline. Due to crazy circumstances, over half of those picks are from beyond the year 2020. This includes the movement of draft picks from the year 2026, 2027, and 2028. Yes, that is correct. A 5 year old was traded this January.

For those that find this absurd, you would be correct. In the Western Hockey League and Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, teams cannot move draft picks that far in advance. And unlike the OHL, teams are also permitted to move their first round draft picks. Let us examine some major moves in all three leagues this trade deadline to compare the effect this has. Kale Clague moved for two quality young players, two first round picks, and a 2nd round pick. Drake Batherson went for three solid young players and a first round pick. Robert Thomas went for a top young player, four 2nd rounders and two 3rd rounders. Because of the high prices and inability to move first rounders, teams like Hamilton and Kingston are almost completely devoid of 2nd round picks for the foreseeable future. Hamilton has two 2nd rounders this year, but then does not own one until 2026 after that. Kingston does not have a 2nd round pick until 2026.

The prices being paid for these players who are essentially rentals, has also spiraled out of control. Let us examine some past deadline deals in the OHL for perspective.

In 2012, the London Knights and Niagara IceDogs battled for an OHL Championship. The Knights brought in rugged two-way star Austin Watson from Peterborough at the deadline at the cost of a moderate young player, two 2nd round picks, and a 4th. Meanwhile, Niagara brought in power forward Brett Ritchie at the cost of three 2nd round picks.

In 2000, perhaps the largest trade in OHL history up until that point occurred and that was the trade of Jason Spezza from Mississauga to Windsor. In return, Mississauga got four players (none could be considered among Windsor’s top young players, save maybe Ryan Courtney), a 2nd round pick and a 6th round pick.

Needless to say, things are changing and these trades are getting out of hand. We’re seeing upwards of six quality draft picks in addition to a team’s top young player changing hands in exchange for one player.

Just what the OHL can do to rectify this remains to be seen, if they wish to rectify it. Would allowing teams the option of trading first rounders lower the cost? What about putting a restriction on how far in advance draft picks can be moved? Regardless, it no longer makes sense for the OHL to differ from the WHL and QMJHL in accordance with transaction limitations. This broken system needs to be fixed. How soon before we get a draft pick trading hands where said future draft pick is not even born yet?

Nic Hague – McKeen's Hockey

STANLEY CUP FINAL: VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS FLORIDA PANTHERS – Goaltending key in a tightly contested series

Forwards

Defense

Goaltending

Special Teams

Conclusion

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: DALLAS STARS VS VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Recent Stanley Cup finalists looking to complete unfinished business

Forwards

Defense

Goaltending

Special Teams

Conclusion

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Big forwards that are elevating their production, including Anders Lee, Lawson Crouse, Jordan Greenway and more, plus a few trades getting done before Monday’s deadline with Calle Jarnkrok, Ben Chiarot, and Josh Manson already on the move.

NUMBERS AT WORK: Weekly Highlights and Observations – 11/15/2021 – Team of the Week: Vegas – What’s Wrong With: Seattle – Microstats 3 Stars

Team of the Week: Vegas Golden Knights

Top Microstat Performances:

What’s Wrong With…?

AHL Calder Cup Playoff Preview – Western Conference

Central Division:

Chicago Wolves (44-22-6-4) vs 4. Grand Rapids Griffins (38-27-7-4)

Milwaukee Admirals (36-24-14-2) vs 3. Iowa Wild (37-26-8-5)

Pacific Division:

Bakersfield Condors (42-21-3-2) vs 4. Colorado Eagles (36-27-4-1)

San Jose Barracuda (39-22-3-4) vs 3. San Diego Gulls (36-27-4-1)

AHL West Report: Life without Brannstrom, Kahkonen living the Wild life, plus much more

AHL Notebook: Central Division

OHL Playoff Preview: Greyhounds pacing the pack

State of the CHL: The Ontario Hockey League

Frontrunners Load Up at the Trade Deadline

Showdown in the East Division

Catching Up to SSM in the West

Greyhounds The Team to Beat

Don’t Sleep on

Steelheads look to Repeat on Last Year’s miracle second half

Owen Sound Attack Better than standings show

Re-Tooling to Fight Another Day

London and Windsor start the cycle

The Race for Quinton Byfield

Erie, Sudbury, & Flint battle for the highly touted youngster

A Broken System

OHL Teams Will Soon Trade for the Unborn