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REVIEW: The Rangers entered 2022-23 as serious contenders, and their performance in the regular season helped reinforce that. Their biggest weakness was their mediocre defense, which finished 16th in 5-on-5 expected goals against (174.2), but that was about the closest the team had to a concern and even that wasn’t a big deal because the Rangers employed goaltender Igor Shesterkin. He posted a 37-13-8 record, 2.48 GAA and .916 save percentage in 58 starts, leaving the Rangers with the fourth-best goals against per game (2.63) despite that mediocre defense. Additionally, while the Rangers’ blueliners didn’t make life easy for Shesterkin, they were great drivers of the offense with former Norris Trophy-winner Adam Fox leading the charge with 12 goals and 72 points. The squad also featured a strong and deep forward cast headlined by Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad, who recorded 92 and 91 points, respectively. Seeing this team’s potential, GM Chris Drury put his cards on the table by acquiring forwards Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane before the deadline. The Rangers entered the playoffs equipped for a lengthy run but were ultimately eliminated in a seven-game first round series against the Devils.
What’s Changed? Tarasenko left as a free agent while Kane, who isn’t expected to be ready for the start of the campaign after undergoing offseason hip resurfacing surgery, remains unsigned. The Rangers did add a fresh top-six forward option, though, by signing Blake Wheeler after he was bought out by Winnipeg. Jonathan Quick was also inked to serve as Shesterkin’s new backup.
What would success look like? Given the talent on this team coupled with the fact that Panarin, Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Vincent Trocheck, Jacob Trouba and Shesterkin are all now firmly in their prime, the goal this season must be a substantial playoff run, if not the Cup. One thing that’d really help in that regard is if Kaapo Kakko and/or Alexis Lafreniere took a significant step forward after recording 40 and 39 points, respectively, last year. Both have the potential to be great top-six forwards, and if they breakout it would elevate what’s already a strong offensive core.
What could go wrong? Shesterkin getting hurt is naturally the nightmare scenario, but it would be an especially big problems this year because the alternative is Quick, who posted a 3.41 GAA and an .882 save percentage in 41 contests last season. Combine that with the fact that Quick will turn 38 in January, and he’s not even a safe bet to be an acceptable backup, let alone assume the starting gig if the need arose. While on the subject of injuries: Panarin, Zibanejad, Fox, Trocheck and Trouba all played the full 82 games last year. Can the Rangers count on being that lucky this time around?
Top Breakout Candidate: A lot is expected of first overall picks, so the fact that Lafreniere has 47 goals and 91 points in 216 career NHL contests is disappointing, but it’s worth remembering that he’ll be turning just 22 on Oct. 11. The Rangers’ offensive depth has also put them in a position to ease him into the lineup far more gradually than a typical top pick, which partially explains his slow growth. Entering a two-year, $4.65 million “show me” contract, Lafreniere has the talent and motivation to take a significant step forward.
A big strong center who set a career high with 91 points (39 G, 52 A) last season, Zibanejad works well with Panarin, and has averaged more than three shots on goal per game in three of the past four seasons. His 133 goals rank ninth and 297 points ranks 14th in the league over that time. He scored 20 power play goals last season and has 60 goals with the man advantage over the past four seasons, the latter ranking second behind only Leon Draisaitl. Zibanejad has a strong base which allows him to shield the puck effectively, giving him more time to make a play or find an opening for a shot. It is noteworthy that Zibanejad was below break-even in terms of Corsi percentage and expected goal percentage, even though the Blueshirts outscored the opposition 51-34 during five-on-five play with Zibanejad on the ice. Zibanejad had a blistering finish to the regular season, tallying 23 points (7 G, 16 A), with 36 shots on goal in his last 16 games. Of course, like Panarin, Zibanejad struggled in the postseason, with four points (1 G, 3 A) in seven games against New Jersey. Considering how consistently productive he has been in recent seasons 35 goals and 80-plus points should be a fair expectation for Zibanejad’s production in 2023-2024.
Playoff struggles, including zero goals and two assists in a seven-game first-round loss against New Jersey last season, are starting to overshadow Panarin’s outstanding regular season production. In four seasons with the Rangers, he has accumulated 341 points (100 G, 241 A) in 268 games, which ranks fourth in the entire league in that span, finishing behind Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Nathan MacKinnon. That track record suggests that small sample playoff struggles should not be Panarin’s defining characteristic. Panarin has excellent vision on the ice and can find an open teammate with ease, sometimes to the detriment of his own scoring. He has a top tier shot, capable of scoring from distance, but when he gets too focused on playing the setup role, he loses some of his effectiveness. Panarin is also a force on the Blueshirts’ power play. After the All-Star break, Panarin racked up 42 points (17 G, 25 A) with 75 shots on goal in 33 games. That he would suddenly fall flat in the postseason was hardly a foregone conclusion. There is little reason to believe that his regular-season production is going to dry up, so expect 25-plus goals and 90-plus points from the Rangers’ game-breaking winger.
A feisty two-way center, Trocheck put up 64 points (22 G, 42 A) in his first season with the Rangers, his most since a career high 75 points for Florida in 2017-2018. He did this despite his shooting percentage dipping to 9.8% after scoring on 12.9% of his shots in the previous two seasons with Carolina. In addition to his point production, Trocheck drives play and brings a physical game, so he offers substantial value in the second-line center spot. He has recorded more than 180 hits in each of the past two seasons, one of 12 forwards to cross that threshold in both seasons. In the last month of the regular season, Trocheck contributed 15 points (3 G, 12 A) in 17 games all while his ice time decreased. He had averaged 19:54 time on ice per game before that point and then played 17:06 per game the rest of the way, losing first unit power play time to Patrick Kane. With Kane unsigned, that could mean that Trocheck returns to the Rangers’ first power play unit, depending on where Blake Wheeler fits in, and Trocheck should still have a good chance to hit 60 points.
Kreider was practically guaranteed to regress after scoring 52 goals in 2021-2022 and he did, but 36 goals last season still counted as the second highest total of his career, and he scored one more even strength goal than he did during his 52-goal campaign. Kreider has rare skating ability for a winger of such size. He is listed at 6’ 3”, 230 pounds and when he gets a full head of steam going, he is a handful for defenders. Kreider also uses that size to bang bodies on the forecheck and create space in front of the net. He is superb in the net front position on the power play, setting screens, tipping pucks, and knocking in rebounds. It is not the most glamorous work, but those goals all count, too. Because of the manner in which he scores so many of his goals, Kreider is not in position to pick up a lot of assists. In his last 22 games of the regular season, Kreider had 11 goals and just one assist! The rarity of those helpers does put a limit on Kreider’s scoring totals, but he could still deliver 35 goals this season. It might just come with something like 55 points.
Bought out of the last year of his contract by the Winnipeg Jets, Wheeler will be 37 by the time the season starts, and he is no longer the premier setup man that he was at his peak, but he can still contribute offensively. He has 161 points (48 G, 113 A) in 187 games across the past three seasons, ranking 64th in the league over that time. Wheeler is much more a distributor than shooter, so if he is in a setup role that should still play to his strengths even if he is in the decline phase of his career. Last season started well for Wheeler, as he produced 24 points (8 G, 16 A) in 25 games, he had just five points (1 G, 4 A) in his last 13 games. To his credit, Wheeler earned six points (2 G, 4 A) in Winnipeg’s five-game first-round loss to Vegas. In a supporting role with the Rangers, Wheeler can still put up 55-60 points and, on his bargain contract, that will provide significant value.
The Rangers’ third line center busted out last season to set career highs of 22 goals and 45 points. He has a quick release and his confidence noticeably increased as he started to find the net. He had a 13-game stretch from early January to early February in which he scored 11 goals on 36 shots, which was phenomenal production considering he was playing 15 minutes per game. Chytil was obviously not going to keep scoring on 30% of his shots, but he scored 19 of his 22 goals at even strength and his career high shooting percentage of 12.4% was hardly an unreasonably lofty rate. The challenge for Chytil to increase his production is how to get more ice time. With Mika Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck ahead of him on the depth chart, Chytil does face an uphill battle trying to earn more time with a scoring line. Under those circumstances, Chytil should be able to produce 40 points, but if he could find his way to a bigger role, then obviously there is more upside to be discovered.
Drafted second overall in 2019, Kakko has taken some time to find his footing in the NHL, but he made progress last season, connecting for career highs of 18 goals and 40 points. The puck tends to move the right way when Kakko is on the ice and, aside from his rookie season, the Rangers have outscored the opposition with Kakko on the ice, so the 22-year-old right winger is having a positive impact for the Blueshirts. Can he take his game to another level, one in which he scores more consistently and plays an even bigger role? That should be his objective, but Kakko’s progress has been gradual, so it is hard to fathom a sudden explosion. Consistency can be a challenge for Kakko, but he flashes potential. In a nine-game stretch starting in mid-January, Kakko produced 10 points (2 G, 8 A), and he is still just 22-years-old. If Kakko continues to skate on the third line, then another 40-point season is a reasonable hope. If he earns a spot in the top six, there is room for him to grow offensively.
When you are the first overall pick, as Lafreniere was in 2020, expectations are for immediate stardom, rather than preaching patience for eventual results. On one hand, Lafreniere had a career high 39 points (16 G, 23 A) and started to have more of a physical impact with 141 hits last season. At the same time, the first overall pick is three years into his career and is still searching for his first 20-goal campaign. There was an 11-game stretch in January and February last season in which Lafreniere produced 10 points (5 G, 5 A), and that is tempting production from a 21-year-old. Lafreniere’s supporters can note that he has scored 32 even-strength goals in the past two seasons, which is the same number as Sam Reinhart, Rickard Rakell, Jamie Benn, and Brayden Schenn. It is one more even-strength goal than Mika Zibanejad. In any case, if Lafreniere has been disappointing to this point in his career, all hope is not lost. All the same, time is of the essence if he is going to prove that he is more than a third-line winger. Lafreniere does not have great speed at this level and has found it difficult to create separation in the NHL. That may not change, but he is getting comfortable with his physical play and a 40-point season should be within his grasp.
With back-to-back seasons of more than 30 points, Goodrow has increased his offensive output since arriving in New York. Even so, he is probably playing too much, as the Rangers have been getting outshot handily with Goodrow on the ice. He is a gritty forward who adds a physical presence, but he is paid too much to toil on the fourth line and that is probably where he fits best. Goodrow has surpassed 30 points in both of his seasons with the Rangers but, with any objective evaluation, he would start losing ice time, because the Rangers fare better when he is not on the ice, so it might be a reach to expect a third consecutive 30-point season for Goodrow.
One of the premier defensemen in the league, Fox won the Norris Trophy in 2020-2021 and has finished fifth and second, respectively, in voting in the two years since. The 25-year-old standout has recorded more than 70 points in back-to-back seasons as he has become very adept at quarterbacking the Rangers’ power play. Fox has a great understanding of the game, anticipates where he needs to be and is confident when he moves the puck. He dominates possession at both ends of the rink and the Rangers have outscored opponents by 82 goals at even strength in Fox’s four NHL seasons, which ranks sixth among defensemen over that span. He is a perennial Norris Trophy contender in his prime. Fox had a nine-game point streak in November, during which he accumulated 14 points (4 G, 10 A), and had two six-game point streaks in January and March, respectively. His consistent power play production should give Fox yet another season with more than 70 points.
The rangy 23-year-old blueliner is emerging as a standout stick-on-puck defender. Standing 6’ 5”, with a great reach and outstanding skating ability, Miller can swallow up the space surrounding any attacking player. His confidence and point production both seemed to spike in his third NHL campaign, as Miller scored 38 of his 43 points at even strength. That is the same number of even-strength points as Miro Heiskanen, Alex Pietrangelo, and Brent Burns. Miller’s offensive breakthrough started in December, when he had 15 points (4 G, 11 A) in a 16-game span. His limited role on the power play does put a ceiling on what Miller can reasonably be expected to produce so it is fair to expect 30 to 35 points. Maybe he can get back to 43 points despite limited power play production, but that is a tall order.
A thundering hitter who is one of the most intimidating defenders in the league, Trouba has recorded 425 hits and 373 blocked shots, ranking seventh and second among defensemen, respectively, while missing just one game in the past two seasons. Trouba is not just a physical presence, however. He is a strong skater who can move the puck and has recorded four seasons with at least 30 points in his career, including the past two seasons, when his per-game shot rates have also been the highest of his career. Trouba was the only Rangers regular to be outscored during five-on-five play, but he also had an expected goals percentage of 49.1%, so getting outscored looks like it was earned. He is not asked to handle a huge offensive role, but Trouba can still contribute in that way. During a nine-game stretch in March, he produced 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 24 shots on goal. He should still be good to deliver a 30-point season for the Rangers.
While the veteran blueliner has not necessarily had the most secure place in the lineup for most of his previous six stops in the NHL, he has tended to deliver quality results, so he is a valuable third pair defender who skates and moves the puck well enough to offer support on the power play. In New York, there is little pressure for Gustafsson to play a prime puck-moving role, but he does give the club insurance behind Fox and Miller, at the very least. Gustafsson’s puck skills can lead to some scoring surges. In December of last season, when he was playing for Washington, Gustafsson scored 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in seven games and only two of those points were on the power play. He added eight assists in the last six games that he played for Washington before getting traded to Toronto. There is some variability when setting expectations for Gustafsson, and it just requires a simple look at his track record. There are a lot of ups and down in his career, so the safe expectation is to look for 30 to 35 points, understanding that he is capable of more if he is given the ice time to do it.
Everyone was watching the Big Apple last season to see if goaltending phenom Igor Shesterkin – who seamlessly transitioned the Rangers from the Henrik Lundqvist era to a new one under his regime – was the real deal. And while the 27-year-old’s fourth year of NHL games didn’t quite yield the same superhuman numbers that he had put up the year prior, he was still good enough to sit comfortably among the league’s biggest threats – even on a team that hadn’t made back-to-back playoff appearances since 2017.
Shesterkin’s game is rivaled by very few around the league; during an era of tumultuous performances and changing guards for the NHL’s goaltending corps, he’s one of the most impressively consistent young talents available. He’s managed to steady the ship for the Rangers as they flirt the line between a quick retooling and a full rebuild, taking the controlled and precise style that Henrik Lundqvist perfected for the Rangers and adding a few twists of explosive strength and speed all his own. He has one of the league’s most consistent baselines; after every shot, he manages to re-set himself flat on the goal line to give himself a better opportunity to face tricky offensive systems designed to draw goaltenders out of position. Add in a strong tracking game and mental read of shooters, coupled with a game that minimizes extra movement to avoid fatigue, and there’s very little about Shesterkin that’s not to like. The only real question this year? Just how he’ll handle sharing a net with a Lundqvist-era legend; he’ll share the crease with none other than Connecticut native Jonathan Quick, who has returned to the East Coast to back up Shesterkin after a disappointing year for Jaroslav Halak as his number two. Quick’s style sits on the opposite end of the spectrum from Shesterkin’s – so it will be interesting to see how the team handles such variance in what they’ll need to do to prepare for games with each of their respective starters.
Projected starts: 60-65
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FORWARDS
Timo Meier
An elite shot generator who had everything come together in 2021-2022, Meier had career highs in goal (35) and points (76) while launching 4.23 shots on goal per game, the highest rate of his career and fifth highest rate in the league. There had been signs of this kind of performance before, but last season Meier was a consistent force throughout the season and it’s not easy to generate shots and points at that rate, especially for a team that is struggling. Now that sets a new level of expectations for what he might be able to accomplish in the future, but if the Sharks are going to become a more competitive franchise, they will likely need more of the same from Meier. Furthermore, if he puts up another season like he did last season, there ought to be greater league-wide recognition for his performance because he was outstanding last season. Tempering expectations, Meier should be a reasonable bet for 30 goals and 65 points this season, with the understanding that if he can maintain his elite shot rates that he could very well be a point-per-game player.
Tomas Hertl
After committing to stay in San Jose with a new contract, Hertl responded by scoring 30 goals for the second time in his career and his 64 points also represented the second highest total of his career. A powerful and skilled center, Hertl also recorded a career high 105 hits and played a career high 19:56 per game. It was a very productive campaign, and he did all of this despite starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone, which does not seem like an ideal use of his talents. Hertl is solid defensively, that’s not the point, but the 28-year-old’s offensive skills set him apart to a greater degree, so it might make more sense to focus his efforts there, when possible. Hertl should be able to produce 25 goals and 60 points, with room to elevate further depending on his durability and how well his supporting cast in San Jose performs.
Logan Couture
The 33-year-old center continues to deliver solid results, and he put up 23 goals and 56 points last season while driving play in a positive way, at least relative to his teammates. Couture’s shot rate of 2.58 shots per game last season was his highest since 2017-2018, the season when he scored a career-high 34 goals, but he has established a level of productivity in the league, surpassing 20 goals nine times and topping 30 goals three times. The main question for the Sharks will be for how much longer can he produce at a first line level? He is under contract for five more seasons, and it seems unlikely that he will avoid decline in that time, but he is coming off a strong season and should be in position to be a productive scoring center again, good for at least 50 points, maybe even more.
Alexander Barabanov
After starting his NHL career as a spare part with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Barabanov has found stability in San Jose, producing 46 points in 79 games since joining the Sharks. Some measure of that production may reflect opportunity more than his own individual improvement, because Barabanov’s most common Sharks linemates have been Tomas Hertl and Timo Meier, so that is about as favorable as it gets for a Sharks winger. Barabanov also happens to be a relatively reluctant shooter, so having him in a playmaking role with the team’s top two goal-scorers does offer a stylistic fit. It’s hard to pin down a forecast for Barabanov because he seems so heavily dependent on linemates that are better players, so if he was to get bumped from the top line, his value could drop dramatically. As such, the reasonable play would be to expect 30 points from Barabanov, with the understanding that he has potential upside that could take him higher.
Kevin Labanc
A skilled 26-year-old winger, Labanc had stumbled since busting out for a career high 56 points in 2018-2019 and he had managed just six points in 21 games before he had to undergo shoulder surgery and that ultimately left him sidelined for the rest of the season. In his last eight games before surgery, Labanc had zero points and was averaging just 10 minutes of ice time per game, so he was at a relative low point. He has the playmaking skill to play in a top six role but after some injuries and inconsistency he will have to earn his way back into a significant spot with this team. Labanc could do it, because he has the puck skills and the shot to be a point producer in the National Hockey League but, coming off shoulder surgery, it is not going to be easy to get back to his previous level of production. If Labanc produced 35-40 points and managed to stay healthy, that would be a positive outcome, but there is a path to even more points if he could get back to his early career form.
Oskar Lindblom
Although the Philadelphia Flyers stuck with Lindblom while he recovered from Ewing’s Sarcoma, he had not been able to recapture his previous form, so the Flyers bought out the final year of his contract. That presented an opportunity for the Sharks to buy low on a 26-year-old winger who had shown real promise early in his NHL career. It is a worthwhile risk to take because Lindblom’s defensive play is solid enough, which raises the floor on his level of contribution, but if the 26-year-old can get his scoring touch back then he might have a chance to score 15 goals and 30 points to provide a favorable return on investment.
Luke Kunin
Picked up in a trade with the Nashville Predators, Kunin is a feisty winger whose on-ice results aren’t great, but teams that want guys who will go to battle are interested in players like Kunin because he hits a lot and will drop the gloves, if need be. He does have some level of skill, scoring 38 goals in 183 games across the past three seasons, but the challenge for the Sharks is taking the parts of Kunin’s game that they like and figuring out how to improve his possession results because, among the 232 forwards that have played at least 2000 5v5 minutes in the past three seasons, Kunin ranks 231st in relative Corsi. If he can overcome those underlying numbers, Kunin could produce 15 goals and 25-30 points, while potentially adding huge hit totals – he had 223 hits last season, the first time in his career that he had more than 90 hits in a season.
Nick Bonino
A reliable veteran who struggled quite a bit last season, Bonino went 18 games without a point to start the season, though he ended up scoring eight goals in his last 15 games to finish with more respectable numbers. Still, 26 points in 80 games was the 34-year-old’s lowest per-game production since his rookie season of 2010-2011. Bonino tends to have the deck stacked against him, starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone, and even with his sound defensive play, his possession numbers have been terrible the past two seasons. Given his age, it’s fair to wonder if he will be able to turn that around. Setting an expectation for 15 goals and 30 points is reasonable enough, provided Bonino can maintain a top nine role.
Noah Gregor
A 24-year-old winger, Gregor has started to make his mark in the NHL by generating shots at a high rate but has not been able to finish his chances, scoring on just 6.4% of his shots on goal in his career. If he can’t finish at a higher rate, then Gregor will have to provide energy and physical play in a depth role. It is still relatively early in Gregor’s NHL career, so he will face a challenge from others just to secure a spot in the lineup, but if Gregor can play on a consistent basis, 25 points could be in his sights, and his scoring numbers could spike if he ever learns how to finish. He had scored 14 goals and 40 points in 43 AHL games, so it’s not like he is unfamiliar with the objective when he gets into the offensive zone. It has just proven to be difficult for him to finish his opportunities in the NHL.
DEFENSE
Erik Karlsson
Following a down season in 2020-2021, Karlsson bounced back in a big way last season. While he wasn’t peak Karlsson, he still put up 35 points in 50 games. Of course, injuries have played a bigger part in Karlsson’s career in recent seasons, as he has not played 70 games in a season since 2017-2018. Since 2013-2014, Karlsson has scored 497 points which ranks fourth among defensemen. His 0.82 points per game ranks second among defensemen (behind Cale Makar). With Brent Burns getting traded to Carolina, Karlsson should have a bigger role quarterbacking the Sharks power play, so if Karlsson could manage to stay healthy, he might have his best offensive production in several seasons. Try 45 points with potential for more if Karlsson manages to stay healthy. That health risk is not something to be ignored, either, since Karlsson has missed more than 10 games in four of the past five seasons.
Ryan Merkley
The 2018 first-round pick reached the National Hockey League last season and played 39 games for the Sharks. While he has potential, with the ability to generate offensive chances, he is also a work in progress when it comes to his play without the puck. That could leave him in a battle for a regular spot in the lineup, but the 22-year-old also offers offensive potential and that might hold some value for the Sharks. Merkley has 30 points, though just two goals, in 63 AHL games, so he has a little bit of an offensive track record that should offer more hope than the six points in 39 games that he scored for the Sharks last season.
Mario Ferraro
A bundle of energy who plays hard, which is exactly what the Sharks are trying to establish as their team identity. The 23-year-old was one of 11 defensemen to record at least 140 hits and 140 blocked shots last season, even though he was limited to 63 games after suffering a broken fibula. There is still room for improvement, with regard to how he can generate offense and how he defends the blueline. If Ferraro could produce more than 20 points that would count as progress, but that also might be enough, along with his hit and blocked shot totals, to give him fringe fantasy value in deep leagues.
Marc-Edouard Vlasic
There was a time when Vlasic was a premier shutdown defender but that is in the rearview mirror now and the 35-year-old’s role has been reduced significantly in recent seasons. He played a career-low 15:13 per game last season and is now an expensive depth defenseman. San Jose has been outscored 141-91 with Vlasic on the ice during 5-on-5 play in the past three seasons, so it’s understandable that his role is getting reduced and that reduced role limits what kind of scoring might come from Vlasic. Anything more than 15 points would be relatively surprising.
GOALTENDING
James Reimer
The San Jose Sharks quickly cleared up any lingering questions that fans might have had regarding their goaltending tandem positions a few weeks before training camp was set to open, dealing Adin Hill to the Vegas Golden Knights and leaving James Reimer with only backup Kaapo Kähkönen as his second-in-command.
The Sharks remain a hard team to figure out from a goaltending perspective, because they just can’t seem to put it all together – although Reimer, who will be 35-years-old before the season wraps up, has been their most successful option over the last handful of years. His .911 save percentage in all situations was peppered with consistently good games and very few poor ones, similar to the games that Antti Raanta posted for Carolina in Reimer’s old spot on the east coast; like Raanta, Reimer played a season that didn’t challenge for any Vezina nods but gave his team a known and consistent entity to play behind each night. Reimer’s game still has a few of the rough edges that have lingered as a tribute to the unorthodox development path he took – he didn’t receive formal goaltending coaching until later in his adolescence, giving him a style that relies more on his instincts than monotonous style and predictable footwork. But while he lacks some of the finesse of goaltenders who had earlier formal training, his affable personality shines through in how seamlessly he integrates himself into a team’s defensive system; he seems to rarely find himself fighting against those playing in front of him, and his lack of inconsistency over the last five or six seasons make it easy to trust that he’ll get the job done in the back while his teammates can focus their games more on offense. His biggest risk area remains his health; while he hasn’t missed extensive time recently, his laundry list of injuries over his career keep him firmly encamped among the goaltenders who will always need a reliable number two just in case the team is left without their services for a stretch.
Projected starts: 50-55
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PLAYOFF POOL STRATEGIES
As unusual as the 2021 NHL season has been, the playoff is still a little different than in previous seasons – with staggered starts and different divisional setups – but it is close enough to a normal 16-team playoff that regular playoff pool strategies will still apply.
These guidelines for playoff pool drafting offer no guarantees. This is all about giving your team the best chance to succeed.
In general, the foundation for drafting a fantasy pool team is to pick from four different teams so that you have some room for error and have a chance at having representatives on each team in the third round of the playoffs.
It is possible to put all your eggs in one basket and if you draft 10 players from one team and that teams wins the Stanley Cup, you probably will win your pool. But there is a law of diminishing returns, too.
Consider that Anthony Cirelli ranked 10th on the Tampa Bay Lightning playoff scoring last year with 10 points. If you somehow got all of Tampa Bay’s top ten scorers then, yes, you would likely run away with your playoff pool.
But Tampa Bay was expected to be a Cup contender last year, so the odds were heavily against being able to draft all three of Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman. If you don’t get all of the top guys, then you end up in competition with others for the supporting players, which is fine, but it also means that you are not going to get all of Tampa Bay’s Top 10 even with an “all-in” strategy and suddenly you’re down to the likes of Pat Maroon and Barclay Goodrow and there might be better scoring options elsewhere.
Ultimately, depending on how your draft shakes out, this could mean being prepared to take players from at least one underdog because if everyone only takes players from favored teams, the pool of players gets shallow in a hurry.
The plan to diversify has overall value but that does not preclude you from grabbing players on the same line so that you might be able to score multiple points on the same goal. If you’re liking the new-look Boston Bruins since the trade deadline, maybe it’s worth considering not just Taylor Hall but linemates David Krejci or Craig Smith, too. Zach Hyman is out there just waiting to be paired with Auston Matthews or Mitch Marner.
The Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals have had recent playoff success and there might be players on both teams that you like for playoff pool purposes but if you take players from both of those teams that guarantees that you won’t have a full roster in Round Two. I will offer a tiny exception to this rule and that is if you are heading to the end of your draft and the best player on an underdog is still available then that might make some sense as a hedging option because there may be greater upside in taking Filip Forsberg and hoping that Nashville can pull off an upset than grabbing another third-line winger from a favored team.

Finding value in small samples means that power plays tend to have an outsized importance in playoff hockey. In the 2019-2020 regular season, for example, teams averaged 4:44 of 5-on-4 time per game. In the playoffs of that same season, teams played 5:37 per game. That is an increase of more than 18%. 5-on-4 goal production went from 0.545 goals per game in the regular season to 0.624 per game in the playoffs: an increase of more than 14%.
Obviously, more goals are scored at even strength, so that should not be ignored, but a role on the first power play unit certainly works as a useful tie-breaker among players that might be close in terms of expected value.
That also means that the defenseman who quarterbacks a team’s power play can have a major impact. In last year’s playoffs, three of the top seven scorers overall were defensemen – Dallas Stars duo Miro Heiskanen and John Klingberg as well as Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman. Vegas Golden Knights blueliner Shea Theodore, Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes, and Colorado’s Cale Makar finished in the Top 25, too.
In 2019, Alex Pietrangelo, Torey Krug, Erik Karlsson, and Brent Burns were all among the Top 15 playoff scorers.
By way of comparison, there were two defensemen in the Top 25 in regular season scoring in 2019-2020: John Carlson finished 12th and Roman Josi 24th.
This season, Tyson Barrie is the highest scoring defenseman, with 48 points in 55 games, and he ranks 33rd. You can take it to the bank that the highest scoring defenseman in the playoffs will finish higher than 33rd in playoff scoring.

This does not mean that a player who had a good week or two is suddenly a star but if circumstances changed, it would make sense to take that into account.
Who are some notable players that have produced more since the trade deadline? These aren’t the first line stars, necessarily, but players who performed better down the stretch of this season.
Some players have been able to perform at a high level in the playoffs and it can be one thing for a star player to just carry on what they were doing in the regular season but supporting players who can keep scoring in the postseason, when the opposition is better, do hold added appeal. This does not mean to abandon a player who has not yet had playoff scoring success because it is more important to get good players in good situations rather than worrying about what they have done in small playoff samples.
Over the past decade, these are some supporting players who have had some relative postseason scoring success in the postseason.
This one is out of your control but preparation and a strategy going into a playoff draft at least gives you an opportunity to have success. Maybe you need an upset or two. Maybe you need a player to go on a percentage-fueled scoring run. It can happen. Players and teams get hot and in a 16-team tournament, that can make all the difference.
Here is a playoff draft list, top 150 skaters plus 21 goaltenders, based on Colorado over Tampa Bay, with Toronto and Boston reaching the semifinal. Obviously, individual preferences for the playoffs make a big difference in expected games played. Use this as a guide, but trust your own research and instincts. If you need a quick list this should see you through.
| RK | PLAYER | TEAM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan MacKinnon | COL |
| 2 | Mikko Rantanen | COL |
| 3 | Nikita Kucherov | TB |
| 4 | Brayden Point | TB |
| 5 | Connor McDavid | EDM |
| 6 | Cale Makar | COL |
| 7 | Brad Marchand | BOS |
| 8 | Mitch Marner | TOR |
| 9 | Auston Matthews | TOR |
| 10 | Gabriel Landeskog | COL |
| 11 | Leon Draisaitl | EDM |
| 12 | Steven Stamkos | TB |
| 13 | Victor Hedman | TB |
| 14 | David Pastrnak | BOS |
| 15 | John Tavares | TOR |
| 16 | Patrice Bergeron | BOS |
| 17 | Sidney Crosby | PIT |
| 18 | Ondrej Palat | TB |
| 19 | Nazem Kadri | COL |
| 20 | Andre Burakovsky | COL |
| 21 | David Krejci | BOS |
| 22 | Taylor Hall | BOS |
| 23 | William Nylander | TOR |
| 24 | Sebastian Aho | CAR |
| 25 | Jake Guentzel | PIT |
| 26 | Mark Stone | VGK |
| 27 | Evgeni Malkin | PIT |
| 28 | Alex Killorn | TB |
| 29 | Yanni Gourde | TB |
| 30 | Zach Hyman | TOR |
| 31 | Max Pacioretty | VGK |
| 32 | Andrei Svechnikov | CAR |
| 33 | Kris Letang | PIT |
| 34 | Sam Girard | COL |
| 35 | Blake Coleman | TB |
| 36 | Devon Toews | COL |
| 37 | Shea Theodore | VGK |
| 38 | Joonas Donskoi | COL |
| 39 | Tyler Johnson | TB |
| 40 | Morgan Rielly | TOR |
| 41 | Jonathan Marchessault | VGK |
| 42 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | EDM |
| 43 | Mikhail Sergachev | TB |
| 44 | Charlie McAvoy | BOS |
| 45 | Craig Smith | BOS |
| 46 | William Karlsson | VGK |
| 47 | Reilly Smith | VGK |
| 48 | Martin Necas | CAR |
| 49 | Teuvo Teravainen | CAR |
| 50 | Dougie Hamilton | CAR |
| 51 | J.T. Compher | COL |
| 52 | Tyson Barrie | EDM |
| 53 | Jason Spezza | TOR |
| 54 | Anthony Cirelli | TB |
| 55 | Joe Thornton | TOR |
| 56 | Mathieu Joseph | TB |
| 57 | Jake Muzzin | TOR |
| 58 | Mike Reilly | BOS |
| 59 | Nick Foligno | TOR |
| 60 | Jordan Staal | CAR |
| 61 | Jeff Carter | PIT |
| 62 | Alex Tuch | VGK |
| 63 | Bryan Rust | PIT |
| 64 | Alex Pietrangelo | VGK |
| 65 | Jared McCann | PIT |
| 66 | Kasperi Kapanen | PIT |
| 67 | Mark Scheifele | WPG |
| 68 | Matt Grzelcyk | BOS |
| 69 | Charlie Coyle | BOS |
| 70 | Chandler Stephenson | VGK |
| 71 | Aleksander Barkov | FLA |
| 72 | Ryan O'Reilly | STL |
| 73 | Nicklas Backstrom | WSH |
| 74 | Alex Ovechkin | WSH |
| 75 | Darnell Nurse | EDM |
| 76 | Kirill Kaprizov | MIN |
| 77 | Jonathan Huberdeau | FLA |
| 78 | Mathew Barzal | NYI |
| 79 | David Perron | STL |
| 80 | Filip Forsberg | NSH |
| 81 | Blake Wheeler | WPG |
| 82 | Evgeny Kuznetsov | WSH |
| 83 | Vincent Trocheck | CAR |
| 84 | John Carlson | WSH |
| 85 | Kyle Connor | WPG |
| 86 | T.J. Oshie | WSH |
| 87 | Tyler Toffoli | MTL |
| 88 | Nick Suzuki | MTL |
| 89 | Valeri Nichushkin | COL |
| 90 | Alex Kerfoot | TOR |
| 91 | Jesse Puljujarvi | EDM |
| 92 | Alex Newhook | COL |
| 93 | Mats Zuccarello | MIN |
| 94 | Josh Bailey | NYI |
| 95 | Nikolaj Ehlers | WPG |
| 96 | Torey Krug | STL |
| 97 | Carter Verhaeghe | FLA |
| 98 | Ryan Johansen | NSH |
| 99 | Mike Hoffman | STL |
| 100 | Anthony Duclair | FLA |
| 101 | Kevin Fiala | MIN |
| 102 | Patric Hornqvist | FLA |
| 103 | Jordan Eberle | NYI |
| 104 | Vladimir Tarasenko | STL |
| 105 | Brandon Saad | COL |
| 106 | Tyson Jost | COL |
| 107 | Nick Ritchie | BOS |
| 108 | Alec Martinez | VGK |
| 109 | Brock Nelson | NYI |
| 110 | Pierre-Luc Dubois | WPG |
| 111 | Sam Bennett | FLA |
| 112 | Roman Josi | NSH |
| 113 | Brendan Gallagher | MTL |
| 114 | Jaden Schwartz | STL |
| 115 | Brayden Schenn | STL |
| 116 | Anthony Mantha | WSH |
| 117 | James Neal | EDM |
| 118 | Nino Niederreiter | CAR |
| 119 | Brett Pesce | CAR |
| 120 | Teddy Blueger | PIT |
| 121 | Brandon Tanev | PIT |
| 122 | Warren Foegele | CAR |
| 123 | Barclay Goodrow | TB |
| 124 | Tomas Nosek | VGK |
| 125 | Jason Zucker | PIT |
| 126 | Jesper Fast | CAR |
| 127 | Kailer Yamamoto | EDM |
| 128 | Frederick Gaudreau | PIT |
| 129 | Dominik Kahun | EDM |
| 130 | Anthony Beauvillier | NYI |
| 131 | Paul Stastny | WPG |
| 132 | Kyle Palmieri | NYI |
| 133 | Justin Schultz | WSH |
| 134 | Neal Pionk | WPG |
| 135 | Alex Chiasson | EDM |
| 136 | Keith Yandle | FLA |
| 137 | Andrew Copp | WPG |
| 138 | Jordan Kyrou | STL |
| 139 | Tom Wilson | WSH |
| 140 | Lars Eller | WSH |
| 141 | MacKenzie Weegar | FLA |
| 142 | Mikael Granlund | NSH |
| 143 | Jeff Petry | MTL |
| 144 | Ryan Ellis | NSH |
| 145 | Cole Caufield | MTL |
| 146 | Tyler Bozak | STL |
| 147 | Viktor Arvidsson | NSH |
| 148 | Nick Bonino | MIN |
| 149 | Tomas Tatar | MTL |
| 150 | Jared Spurgeon | MIN |
| RK | GOALTENDER | TEAM |
| 1 | Philipp Grubauer | COL |
| 2 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | TB |
| 3 | Jack Campbell | TOR |
| 4 | Tuukka Rask | BOS |
| 5 | Robin Lehner | VGK |
| 6 | Petr Mrazek | CAR |
| 7 | Mike Smith | EDM |
| 8 | Tristan Jarry | PIT |
| 9 | Connor Hellebuyck | WPG |
| 10 | Juuse Saros | NSH |
| 11 | Carey Price | MTL |
| 12 | Jordan Binnington | STL |
| 13 | Semyon Varlamov | NYI |
| 14 | Cam Talbot | MIN |
| 15 | Sergei Bobrovsky | FLA |
| 16 | Vitek Vanecek | WSH |
| 17 | Chris Driedger | FLA |
| 18 | Marc-Andre Fleury | VGK |
| 19 | Alex Nedeljkovic | CAR |
| 20 | Jeremy Swayman | BOS |
| 21 | Frederik Andersen | TOR |
This week, the Florida Panthers have been a great fit for Sam Bennett. John Tavares, Colin Blackwell, Nick Bonino, and Alex Goligoski are among those making late-season charges.

#1 As Sam Bennett’s time in Calgary came to an end, he was on an atypical four-game point streak, picking up five assists in his last four games for the Flames. Bennett has responded to the trade to Florida by tallying five points (3 G, 2 A) and 15 hits in his first three games for the Panthers. This is the best possible version of Bennett, it appears, and some of that is due to the opportunity he is getting, centering the second line in Florida, between Jonathan Huberdeau and Anthony Duclair.
#2 Huberdeau is a scoring weapon, even away from Aleksander Barkov. Barkov has 2.32 primary points/60 during 5-on-5 play this season, ranking seventh (minimum 500 5-on-5 minutes) behind the likes of Connor McDavid, Artemi Panarin, Auston Matthews, Mark Stone, and Nathan MacKinnon. Oh, that’s only five. All of those superstars are behind Jason Robertson, the Stars rookie who has 2.82 primary points/60 this season.
#3 Where was I? Oh yes, Huberdeau. He ranks 13th in primary points/60 this season with 2.16 primary points/60, the same rate as Max Pacioretty and Mitch Marner. Since the start of the 2018-2019 season, Huberdeau has 219 points in 198 games, the seventh best total in the league. Not a bad player to have anchoring the second line.
#4 Barkov has been Huberdeau’s most common linemate over the past three seasons but not so much this season. In the past three seasons, the Panthers scored 3.56 goals/60 when Barkov and Huberdeau were on the ice during 5-on-5 play. Huberdeau has not had as much success with his most common linemates this season – Alexander Wennberg (2.77 GF/60) and Patric Hornqvist (2.62 GF/60) – thus the lineup shuffle for the Panthers, bringing in Bennett and moving Duclair to the right side of that line.
#5 Florida Panthers winger Frank Vatrano is low-key one of the premier shot generators in the league. This season, he ranks third, behind Brendan Gallagher and Brady Tkachuk, with 11.8 shots per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play.
#6 Toronto Maple Leafs center John Tavares has been the target of frequent criticism this season, To be fair, when he had 28 points in 37 games, that was pretty far off of his typical point-per-game pace. Since then, though, Tavares has 14 points (6 G, 8 A) and 29 shots on goal in the past nine games, leaving him with 42 points in 46 games. Tavares had 1.97 goals for per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play in the first 37 games, thanks in part to an on-ice shooting percentage of 6.6%. Since then, the Maple Leafs are scoring 4.35 goals/60 with an on-ice shooting percentage of 12.5% with Tavares on the ice. When those percentages flip, the production can change in a hurry.
#7 While the rookie scoring race appears to be between Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov and Dallas’ Jason Robertson, Ottawa Senators center Josh Norris has delivered a stellar rookie campaign. He has eight points (3 G, 5 A) during a five-game point streak and ranks third among rookie scorer with 29 points.
#8 New York Rangers winger Colin Blackwell appears to have secured a spot on the right side with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome. Blackwell does have 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in the past 13 games and Panarin is the only Rangers player who has a higher on-ice scoring rate in those 13 games.
#9 The injury to Zach Hyman could lead to a rough stretch for the Toronto Maple Leafs. He ranks fourth on the team with 0.88 expected goals per 60 minutes this season and over the past three seasons the Maple Leafs score 60.2% of the goals at 5-on-5 with Hyman and Auston Matthews on the ice. Matthews, without Hyman over the past three seasons, has been on the ice for 52.8% of goals during 5-on-5 play.
#10 In a stretch from late January through early April, Minnesota Wild forward Nick Bonino had six points (3 G, 3 A) in 28 games while playing 13:43 per game. Since Aprl 7, Bonino has nine points (2 G, 7 A) in seven games while playing 17:00 per game. He has been getting first-unit power play time recently, even if he is still on the lower half of the Wild depth chart at evens, but it is enough of an opportunity for Bonino to provide some late-season fantasy value, basically where none existed for most of this season.
#11 Arizona Coyotes defenseman Alex Goligoski has had seven seasons with at least 35 points, so he knows how to move the puck and run a power play in the National Hockey League. He was put into a defensive role early this season. After an assist on opening night, he had one assist in his next 31 games. In his past 14 games, Goligoski has 13 points (3 G, 10 A), including four assists on the power play. The bonus with Goligoski is that he is also a shot blocker, with 31 in the past 14 games to give him even more fantasy appeal.
#12 Taken with the eighth pick in the 2017 Draft, Buffalo Sabres center Casey Mittelstadt has had a difficult time making his mark in the National Hockey League. He had nine points in 31 games last season before getting sent down to the American Hockey League and he managed five points (1 G, 4 A) in his first 19 games this season, so that is a modest 14 points in 50 games. In his past dozen games, though, Mittelstadt has 10 points (7 G, 3 A) and is going to play enough the rest of the way because the Sabres need to find out if he can capably fill a role in their top six next season.
#13 Mittelstadt is not the only young Sabres forward who will get big reps down the stretch. 20-year-old rookie Dylan Cozens has been in and out of the lineup with a few injuries this season but since his most recent return to the lineup, Cozens has five assists and 20 shots on goal in six games while playing more than 16 minutes per game. He has also been getting educated in the faceoff circle, winning a meagre 26.5% of his draws in those six games.
#14 The Boston Bruins made one of the best additions at the trade deadline and it may not even be the Taylor Hall deal, although that one was good, too. Defenseman Mike Reilly was exactly what the Bruins needed, a competent puck-moving defenseman who could get out of the defensive zone and let Boston’s forwards go to work. Reilly has three assists in his first five games with the Bruins but has seen a spike in ice time, from 18:36 per game in Ottawa, to 22:31 per game with the Bruins.
#15 A winger who might be known as much for borderline hits as for his hockey acumen, the Blues’ Sammy Blais is making his mark late in the season. He has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 20 hits in the past five games, which takes Blais from relative obscurity to difference-maker status in fantasy hockey. Wingers who can deliver four hits per game are few and far between. Over the full season, Brady Tkachuk, Brandon Tanev, and Tyler Motte are the only three forwards averaging more than four hits per game.
#16 A rookie winger who could be poised for a big finish, Vancouver’s Nils Hoglander showed flashes of potential early in the season after he was a surprise to secure a top-six role for the Canucks but then he went through some dry spells offensively. He’s gearing up a for a big finish, it appears, with seven points (4 G, 3 A) in his past seven games and if the Canucks are indeed going to play out their schedule, they have more games remaining (17) than any other team.
#17 New York Islanders winger Anthony Beauvillier was easy to ignore for most of the season. While he generated 50 shots on goal in his first 22 games, he had just six points (2 G, 4 A). Those shot rates were encouraging but what can you do with six points in 22 games? The right answer, apparently, it to be patient. In his past 15 games, Beauvillier has 13 points (7 G, 6 A) with 27 shots on goal.
#18 Rookie goaltenders have made a difference this season. The Islanders’ Ilya Sorokin stumbled in his first three NHL starts, posting an .871 save percentage. Since then, Sorokin has a .934 save percentage in 14 games, giving him a .922 mark for the season. Carolina’s Alex Nedeljkovic has a .932 save percentage in 17 starts. The Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin at .920 and Dallas’ Jake Oettinger, with a .919 save percentage, have had an impact, as well as Chicago’s Kevin Lankinen. He has cooled off but still has a .911 save percentage in 33 starts.
#19 Among the smaller sample sizes, and looking to the future for goaltenders, Boston’s Jeremy Swayman has a .938 save percentage in his first five starts and Florida’s Spencer Knight won his NHL debut, stopping 33 of 34 shots against Columbus Tuesday.
#20 The hype machine is ready and waiting for Montreal Canadiens right winger Cole Caufield, the 15th pick in the 2019 Draft, who shredded the NCAA this season, with 52 points (30 G, 22 A) in 31 games at Wisconsin before scoring four points (3 G, 1 A) in his first two AHL games. Now, he appears to be knocking on the door for a late-season audition in Montreal and, with Brendan Gallagher injured, there just might be room for the Habs to find out if Caufield can follow the path of Alex DeBrincat as undersized snipers that can simply score wherever they play. For fantasy managers seeking a late-season scoring boost, Caufield’s upside does make him worth picking up off the waiver wire.
Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick
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Pekka Rinne also put forth a superb effort to capture the Vezina Trophy for the first time in his career after some near misses. The end result was that the Nashville Predators captured the Presidents’ Trophy with 117 points. Like the other recent winners of the Presidents’ Trophy though, playoff success didn’t follow. It wasn’t a disaster, but after besting Colorado in six games, the Predators were defeated by the Winnipeg Jets in seven games.
SO LONG, AND THANKS FOR ALL THE FISH – Mike Fisher came out of retirement late in the 2016-17 campaign to join the Nashville Predators for one last run. Unfortunately, it didn’t result in the former captain being able to cap his lengthy career with a Stanley Cup championship, but it was an opportunity for Predators fans to say one final goodbye. Though perhaps someday he’ll be back in a coaching capacity, as Predators bench boss Peter Laviolette has tried to persuade him to do.
Beyond Fisher’s departure, they also lost defenseman Alexei Emelin, who averaged a modest 16:53 minutes. In his place is Dan Hamhuis, who agreed to a two-year, $2.5 million contract with Nashville after recording 24 points and averaging 20:11 minutes in Dallas last season. Scott Hartnell is also gone after being limited to 12:01 minutes per game and that role might be partially filled by Zac Rinaldo, should he make the team after agreeing to a two-way contract.
While the Predators are going into the season with largely the same team though, there were some noteworthy re-signings over the summer. Juuse Saros inked a three-year, $4.5 million contract and has the opportunity to transition into the starting role given that Rinne will turn 36-years-old in November and is entering the final season of his contract. Meanwhile, Ryan Ellis was signed to an eight-year, $50 million contract that begins in 2019-20. Of Nashville’s defensive core of PK Subban, Mattias Ekholm, Roman Josi, and Ellis, only Ellis’ contract is set to expire before the summer of 2022 (Ellis’ deal is up in the summer of 2020).

WAS CHANGE NECESSARY? – The Predators already had the reigning Vezina Trophy-winner, a young backup goaltender that’s showing promise as a future starter, and a defensive core that’s the envy of most of the league. The only thing the Predators really lack is star power up front and the importance of that is debatable.
Nashville showed that it was more than capable of generating offense by committee last season and there is some reason to believe that that same group might do better this time around. Filip Forsberg was limited to 67 games while Ryan Johansen had his lowest points per game pace since 2012-13, so the Predators might get more out of both of them this season. Viktor Arvidsson also has some potential upside left after back-to-back 61-point campaigns.
The Predators will also have a full season with Kyle Turris after he was acquired on Nov. 5, 2017. While the difference from having Turris at the start of the campaign versus November might not be huge, it is another moderate change to the Predators’ advantage and all those potential factors do start to add up.
The other thing that the Predators have going for them is that they’re still a relatively young team. Rinne’s age was mentioned above, but he’s the only member of Nashville’s core that’s even reached the age of 30. Nashville’s window is still very much open so there are plenty of reasons why the Predators don’t need to rock the boat right now.
OUTLOOK – Nashville is entering the season as a serious Stanley Cup contender once again. There are a few other powerhouse teams in that group, but Nashville stands apart from many of them by drawing its strength by stellar defensemen and goaltending rather than amazing top-end forwards. That doesn’t make the Predators better or worse than those teams by itself, but it does give Nashville a bit of a different flavor from the other potential juggernauts as the campaign begins.
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Summary: They're the hottest team in hockey, and have been a nearly unstoppable force over the past few months.
They're the Penguins, and they're going to lose this series.
Why? Their defense remains a question mark, and they're scoring at a rate that's just unsustainable. There are questions around the health of Evgeni Malkin and Marc Andre Fleury. Both are expected back soon, but it is a factor.
They're up against a battle-tested opponent in the Rangers that might not have been as good as them in the regular season, but we expect the veteran-laden Blueshirts to raise their game. In particular their defense needs to step up and neutralize Pittsburgh’s strong possession game - and will be challenged by speed. The Rangers have also been shooting at an unsustainable rate this season, but will benefit from a closer checking game - and the leveling of that playing field.
And as good as Pittsburgh's offense is, if there's a goalie that can repel it, it's Henrik Lundqvist.
It'll be an extremely close series, but it'll go to the Rangers.
PREDICTION: Rangers in 7
Game One Recap: Jeff Zatkoff started over game-time decision Marc Andre Fleury (concussion) and delivered a big performance, stopping 35 of 37 shots and keeping the Penguins in the game. He carried a shutout into the third, when the Rangers scored on a 5-on-3 power play. Henrik Lundqvist’s eye injury is the most chilling result of the game. We have picked the Rangers, but without Lundqvist, everything changes. His status is being kept under close wraps by the Rangers, similar to Pittsburgh’s silence on their starter for game one. Patric Hornqvist (2G, 1A) and Sidney Crosby (1G 2A) combined for six points. Derek Stepan scored both New York goals. New York won the Corsi battle 55 CF to 36, and delivered 46 hits to the Pens 29.
Key Injuries: Marc-Andre Fleury, Evgeni Malkin (both expected back soon), Matt Murray, Beau Bennett, NYR – Ryan McDonough
Critical Factors: Henrik Lundqvist is critical to New York’s hopes. They finished 15th in the league in defence after finishing first last season, and 34-year old King Henrik has looked average at times, with moments of brilliance – he finished with a very middle of the road 14th in save percentage (0.920) and 22nd in GAA (2.48 – min 30 games). The window to win is closing, and he remains a very good bet to put the regular season behind him and rise to the occasion. Eric Staal was acquired at the trade deadline and Keith Yandle retained, both UFA’s this summer, so the team went all in for a run. The Penguins have been flying (pun intended) under new coach Mike Sullivan, appointed in December. Since he took the helm they posted the league’s second highest CF% (54.6), just behind LA, and a full two percentage points above third place – up from 20th place (48.4%) under coach Johnston – a remarkable turnaround that can’t be ignored. Marc Andre Fleury was making a case for the Vezina at stretches, and finally looked ready for the big Spring performance everyone has been waiting for, before suffering a concussion. The Rangers boast an experienced defensive group that outmatches Pittsburgh’s and their poise in handling the Pens firepower, and interrupting their strong possession game could be a big point of differentiation in the series. It will mean a number of them raising their game - but they have been here before. Ryan McDonagh, their best defenceman, broke his hand, but is listed as day-to-day.
Potential Breakout Players: The Penguins stars have been playing at an elite level since the coaching change Sidney Crosby (50-27-36-63, 1.26 PPG), Kris Letang (45-13-37-50, 1.11 PPG), Evgeni Malkin (26-13-18-31, 1.19 PPG). Nick Bonino (13-5-11-16 together) filled in well for Malkin between Phil Kessel (13-6-7-13) and Carl Hagelin (37-10-17-27 with Pittsburgh, 13-6-7-13 with Bonino and Kessel). Crosby linemates Patric Hornqvist and Chris Kunitz could flourish if he continues to raise the level of his play (see game one). Derek Stepan was blazing hot down the stretch with 17 points in his last 10 games (10-8-9-17) – adding two goals in the first game. He and Chris Kreider form an effective tandem (nine points in his last eight - 8-5-4-9). Rick Nash has only scored twice in the last 16 games (16-2-0-2) after suffering a bone bruise. Mats Zuccarello has been skating with Stepan on the top line over the last while, and is coming off a career year – largely combining well with Derick Brassard for much of the season. A big playoff could be in store.
Season Matchup: Pittsburgh 3-1
Key Stats
CF% 5v5 (war-on-ice.com): PIT 52.6% (2nd) NYR 47.5% (25th)
PDO (war-on-ice.com): PIT 100.6 (7th) NYR 102.3 (1st)
Power Play (NHL.com): PIT 18.4% (16th) NYR 18.6% (14th)
Penalty Kill (NHL.com): PIT 84.4% (5th) NYR 78.2% (26th)
Goals For per-game (NHL.com): PIT 2.94 (3rd) NYR 2.84 (7th)
Goals Against per-game (NHL.com): PIT 2.43 (6th) NYR 2.62 (15th)
Notes: New York enjoyed the most ‘puck luck’ of any NHL team – finishing first in both OSh% (8.9%) and OSv% (93.4%). The on-ice save percentage has been top four for the last four years (1st, 4th, 2nd, 1st) so Lundqvist looms large – on-ice shooting percentage is elevated based on previous years – 4th last year, but 28th and 18th the previous two. Pittsburgh owns a large advantage in possession at 5v5 – and are middle of the road on OSh% with 7.5% - until you look at a their 9.1% OSh% since January – which jumps to 9.9% in the months of March and April – not likely sustainable despite their superstars. Both power plays are middle of the road, but the Rangers weakness penalty killing stands out.
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These are two teams that at the start of the season not many people would have predicted would be playoff teams come April and yet here they are. Canucks GM Jim Benning has done an excellent job refreshing not only the Canucks roster but their prospects as well. The addition of free agents Radim Vrbata and Ryan Miller continues to pay dividends and Nick Bonino has proven to be a more than capable second line centre. The 100 point seasons and even 80 point seasons may be history for the Sedin twins, but they still lead the offense in Vancouver. Vrbata was able to keep pace with the Sedins but there is a drop off after the top three. Bonino, Chris Higgins, Alex Burrows and Jannik Hansen provide some secondary scoring while Bo Horvat and Shawn Matthias provide some depth. Zack Kassian who is sidelined with a back injury is a player who has the ability to be a difference maker with his physical play and offensive power game, he will be missed. The Canucks defense is led by Alex Edler who has rebounded from a disastrous season to regain his forum. Veteran defenders Kevin Bieksa and Dan Hamhuis provide stability while youngsters Chris Tanev, Yannick Weber and Luca Sbisa have all taken on big roles on the blueline and not looked out of place. The big question for the Canucks is in goal. Ryan Miller missed significant time with a knee injury before playing the final regular season game but was “rusty”. Miller is 34 and was unable to deliver the performance in the playoffs last year that the St. Louis Blues were looking for but he is still their best option. Should the Canucks turn to Eddie Lack instead he has proven to be a capable player who also gives his team confidence.
The Calgary Flames have had an impressive season and continue to defy the odds and nay sayers. Not expected to be a competitive team while they continue to rebuild, Coach Bob Hartley has this team playing hard every night and they just never take a night off. Even after Mark Giordano went down for the season and everyone thought the bubble had finally burst, they still kept winning. Up front the Flames are a score by committee team that lacks a super-star presence but rookie sensation Johnny Gaudreau is trending in that direction. Sean Monahan and Jiri Hudler complete the top line, after that the offense drops off significantly as Lance Bouma, David Jones and Joe Colborne provide the secondary scoring. After the top line, most of Calgary’s offence is generated from their defence despite the loss of their best defender Mark Giordano. Kris Russell, Denis Wideman and T.J. Brodie are all good mobile defenders who transition the puck so efficiently into the offensive zone for the Flames. Jonas Hiller can expect to be the go to goalie for the Flames and he should expect to see a lot of shots this series as the Flames struggle both in puck possession and on faceoffs. The Flames have been a team with purpose and a destiny, and since neither team was expected to be in the playoffs at the start of the season, they are both playing with house money and really have nothing to lose. While the advanced stats suggest the Flames poor possession numbers will eventually cost them, it may not happen until the second round.
Top Ten Vancouver Canucks
Top Ten Calgary Flames
Chris Terry – Carolina, LW 25% Fantrax Owned
Since Eric Staal returned the Canes have gone on a winning streak. Alex Semin has been missing in action all season and Jordan Staal has also been injured. In their absence Chris Terry has been delivering offence. In the first 11 games, Terry has produced three goals and seven assists. As a result he has been given time on the powerplay as well. All the while he has been scoring from the third line playing with the likes of Zack Boychuk and Victor Rask, meaning he is producing his own offense. With the Staal line facing the opposition’s top defenders, Terry should continue to get his offense.
Riley Nash – Carolina, C 23% Owned
Like Terry, Nash has been producing despite Carolinas early struggles. Nash is playing on a line with rookie Elias Lindholm and the little spark plug Nathan Gerbe. Nash has scored three goals and five assists in 11 games and has at least on point in four of the last five games. At just 25 years old, this former first round pick of the Oilers could be a good late blooming player.
Josh Jooris – Calgary, C 10% Owned
The Flames have been a big surprise this season led by Mark Giordano and TJ Brodie on the back end with Jonas Hiller in net and Johnny Gaudreau up front. Those players are widely owned, but Jooris is largely unknown, and un-owned. He has been a healthy scratch twice this season but has three goals and two assists for five points in eight games including a two goal performance against Montreal recently.
Lance Bouma – Calgary, LW 8% Owned
Surprisingly the Flames are one of the higher scoring teams so far this season. Bouma has not been a significant offensive threat with three goals and one assist in 14 games. He does have fantasy value in deep leagues that have categories for stats such as hits (37), and blocked shots (15). The Flames love his compete level, and are quite comfortable giving him ice time on a line with Jooris and Brandon Bollig.
Nick Bonino – Vancouver, C 73% Owned
The Vancouver Canucks are having a great start in large part due to the performance of the new players in Ryan Miller, Radim Vrbata and Nick Bonino. At 73 percent owned, chances are Bonino is not available in your league. I am pretty surprised his ownership percent is that low, it really should be closer to 100%. Bonino is off to a great start with seven goals and five assists in 14 games, don’t sleep on this rising star.
Chris Higgins – Vancouver, LW 29% Owned
The oft injured journeyman forward has been a risky pick, but this is the waiver wire, not the first round pick article. Higgins seems to have found new life on the second line with Bonino and Jannik Hansen scoring two goals and seven assists in 14 games. While this line is producing Higgins is fantasy relevant again and at less than 30% owned is a good value pick up if you can snag him.
Linden Vey – Vancouver, RW 39% Owned
Another key addition by new GM Jim Benning, Vey was buried behind a deep Kings roster but has broken out with the Canucks scoring four goals (three powerplay) and three assists in 14 games. Vey has been another pleasant addition if not a surprise and can make an impact on your fantasy team.
]]>Often an unstructured environment with only rudimentary work on systems will allow players to delight the fans and show off their individual skill sets. We were privy to some highlight-reel goals as well as some developing chemistry - while catching a glimpse into the future of Canada’s Western Conference teams.
I know what I see on the ice, but I wanted to hear what management is looking for and to pry a little into how they approach these annual events. Here are some observations from Trevor Linden about drafting and the organizational development of the Canucks.
What are the results when you get varying ages, backgrounds and abilities on the same team in an environment like this?
“It’s a great environment because they're playing against their peers and it’s a tighter range of skills, having said that each player has a unique skill set and its how they apply that and how we (as an organization) see that being applied to the NHL; that’s the challenge”
What is the Canucks goal coming out of this tournament?
“It's just as assessment tool, certainly this year with myself, Jim (Benning, GM), John (Weisbrod, VP player personnel), Willie (Desjardins, head coach) being kind of new, it’s the first chance we’ve had to see these kids in our system, understand what they are and how we can move them forward in their careers”
You’ve had time to assess the organization, what’s your philosophy going forward with regards to prospects?
“Jim identified early in the process that he wanted to give our core guys an opportunity to win, bringing in Bonino, Sbisa, Dorsett & Vey got us younger and (gave us) more depth, it helps support our core group and replenish our prospect pool by getting Jake (Virtanen) 6th overall and getting that Jared McCann pick (24th overall) was key. That one extra pick was huge. We’ve got to do a good job drafting from here on in, that’s critical, we’ve spent a lot of time this week with our amateur guys (scouts) making sure we’re all on the same page”.
]]>Presented below is a list of 30 players - one per team - focusing on the potential for greater contribution in this shortened season.
There are a few familiar names and few that may seem out of place (Tomas Kaberle) but there is value identified here.
I've tried to isolate one player from each team with upside in 2013 for improved offensive results.
Player |
Team |
Notes |
| Nick Bonino | Anaheim | Slated to line up between Bobby Ryan and Teemu Selanne with more responsibility and good production |
| Rich Peverley | Boston | Plug-n-play forward is an undervalued late round gem, hanging in queues too long year after year |
| Ville Leino | Buffalo | Skilled playmaker hit rock bottom after signing long-term yet has the ability to make it up in a rebound season |
| Jiri Hudler | Calgary | Ended tenure in Detroit with benefits of better conditioning, positioning and net presence required for impact in Calgary |
| Justin Falk | Carolina | Started '11-12 as a green rookie and ended an All Star on the World Stage .. won't be cheap or overlooked this season |
| Nick Leddy | Chicago | Speedy rearguard established himself as a dangerous part of the Hawks mobility adding depth to the blueline |
| P.A. Parenteau | Colorado | Talented playmaker energized Islanders top lines and will do the same in Avalanche silks |
| Brandon Dubinsky | Columbus | More offensive responsibility and power play time translates into improved overall numbers for former Blueshirt |
| Alex Goligoski | Dallas | Mobile rearguard may benefit most from playmaking upgrades up front, especially on the power play |
| Mikael Samuelsson | Detroit | Shaking off injury-riddled season, prodigal son rides shotgun as the trigger man beside fellow Swede Zetterberg |
| Justin Schultz | Edmonton | Marvellous pro debut in Oklahoma City has amplified whispers of Calder Trophy Candidate. Excuse early bumps and think longer term |
| Scottie Upshall | Florida | Injury-plagued season and only two goals will drop him at the draft table, but he's capable of 20 goals and a rebound |
| Slava Voynov | Los Angeles | Sleek blueliner's skating ability and big shot from the point provided the Kings the option to trade Jack Johnson |
| Mikael Granlund | Minnesota | Potential rookie of the year made considerable gains in Houston that will benefit in the NHL. Second line center for now |
| Tomas Kaberle | Montreal | Skilled Czech rearguard has a 40 point bounce back potential with upgrades in conditioning and greater rushing freedom |
| Roman Josi | Nashville | Swiss rearguard steps into the void created by the Ryan Suter departure as he enters next stage of development |
| Marek Zidlicky | New Jersey | Mobile rearguard salvaged at the deadline will QB the Devils power play and lead the blueline in scoring |
| Nino Niederreiter | New York Islanders | Scorched a path through the AHL as a run up to a much improved NHL sophomore campaign |
| Carl Hagelin | New York Rangers | Industrious sophomore compliments thrives through sheer will and determination as a scoring threat. Starts on the top scoring unit to start the season |
| Kyle Turris | Ottawa | A full training camp and advances in strength and conditioning has a breakout signals all over 2007 first rounder |
| Jakob Voracek | Philadelphia | That bubbling you hear is the Czech's untapped upside surfacing to a breakout after signing a new four-year deal |
| Mikkel Boedker | Phoenix | Great Dane should build off impressive playoffs while readiness and necessity set the background in a prime scoring role |
| Brandon Sutter | Pittsburgh | Shutdown pivot has a realistic shot to return to the 20-goal plateau with boost in talented surrounding cast |
| Martin Havlat | San Jose | Extended time off by the lockout has to have helped one of the NHL's most fragile wingers |
| Alex Steen | St Louis | Health is the only concern for the industrious and versatile son of former Swedish star Thomas Steen |
| Victor Hedman | Tampa Bay | Greater support cast on the blueline opens the opportunity to showcase offensive creativity |
| Nik Kulemin | Toronto | Much too talented and complete a player for the Russian to rebound from abysmal 7 goals in '11-12 |
| Jason Garrison | Vancouver | Bestows a howitzer point shot that enhances an already lethal Canucks power play |
| Mike Green | Washington | Vowed to return to 70-pt level after signing contract. Health permitting the world awaits |
| Tobias Enstrom | Winnipeg | Enters his prime as the Jets best puck mover on the blueline, and a blistering point shot |
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