OKLAHOMA CITY – McKeen's Hockey

Kats Krunch: AHL 3-in-3 Sets

Gus Katsaros — Fri, 19 Dec 2014 18:02:48 +0000

One could make a case that Bridgeport or Providence possess one of, if not the most difficult schedules in professional sports. Consider this:

They play 16 sets of three games in three nights. The AHL average is eight (8) per team.
They’ve played five already, in nine weeks. The AHL average is 2.5 sets per team already played.
Both went through four straight weekends with a 3-in-3 set.

Despite the scheduling, Providence holds a record of 1-4 in Game 1’s, 0-5 in Game 2’s and 3-2 in Game 3’s. Bridgeport holds a record of 2-3 across all games.

For a full, detailed breakdown team by team, you can download the pdf I created for all AHL teams.

AHL2014-15 Scheds

AHL scheduling is bonkers under normal circumstances tacking on travel conditions, sometimes wintery, terrible hikes to the next venue.

Manchester (14) and Springfield (14) are a close second with Texas, Rockford, Milwaukee and Charlotte play the least amount of sets with three each.

This is how the AHL splits in 2014-15. Splits include monthly units for a more micro approach. Manchester and Springfield with four sets in March. Hershey has four in February.

The Gm1, 2 and 3 columns represent the amount of games the listed team has against opposition in the midst a 3-in-3 set. Bridgeport – and Providence – lead the AHL with 17 and 16 games respectively facing a team playing Game 3 of a 3-in-3. The AHL Average is 7.5.

This isn’t new with Providence either. They were one off the most sets in 2013-14 and led the AHL in 2012-13.

I’ve also incorporated the number of games as a rested/tired team on the game in consecutive nights, however, that could mean Game 2 or Game 3 of a set, adding another layer to what should be considered a schedule loss.

In 2014-15 18 games feature a team playing Game 3 versus a rested opponent. Collectively, tired teams have a 2- 7 record.

TEAM RECORDS

To this point, North Division leading Utica Comets and West Division Oklahoma City has yet to play a 3-in-3 set. Presented below are the records for team sets.

The table on the right is the record of teams as the roll through games 1-3 in their sets. That is, Adirondack has an 0-2 record in game 2’s and 2-0 in game 3’s.

The table on the right represents is from the opposition team facing a team in their 3-in-3 set. Albany is 2-1 versus teams playing game 1’s and providence is 5-2 against teams playing game 3’s that is, 5 of 14 wins this season.

RESTED & TIRED

Of course I couldn’t resist breaking down the rested and tired scenario here. At the NHL level, rested teams usually win about .596% of their games. Thus far in 48 games rested teams have won 32, for a winning percentage of .667%.

Midwest Division leading Rockford IceHogs have played five games as a rested team earning eight points.

The records are up to mid December. Binghamton, Manchester, Norfolk and Bridgeport, have yet to play as a tired team. On the rested side, Charlotte, Grand Rapids, Springfield, Syracuse, Utica and Wilkes-Barre Scranton have not played as a rested team.

Portland holds the dubious distinction of having four losses as a tired team, both losses to divisional rival, Providence.

I guess there’s a bright light in each schedule after all.

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Breaking Boxcars: Oklahoma City Barons

Gus Katsaros — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 21:52:36 +0000

OKC Logo via: Copper 'n Blue

Over at Leafs Nation, I did a breakdown of the American Hockey League Toronto Marlies, something I like to call breaking boxcars, so named due to the extended nature of the statistical breakdowns available in the typical boxcar.

I took the game sheets and parsed the data to come up with another layer of context to the existing underlying numbers. Goals scored were broken down by period, along with when those goals were scored, eg tied game, up one goal, or down one goal, among other categories. Some of the most revealing numbers were based on the on ice goals for and against, especially with the firepower available on the Oklahoma City Barons.

An exciting squad based on the sheer level of NHL talent was the AHL affiliate to the Edmonton Oilers. were a natural selection for breaking boxcars.

The Toronto Marlies post is available HERE with an updated version to be posted on Friday Jan. 25.

A quick note on goals gathered in this post.

The AHL site had the Barons at 122 goals scored (41 power play goals) after 40 games played while these numbers indicate 120 goals scored. The discrepancy in the standings lies in two additional goals attributed to shootout wins.

Similarly, goals against stood at 124 (38 power play goals against) with three additional added via shootout losses for 127 total. This post focuses on the 124 goals against, not the 127 as per the standings.

Also of note is that Oklahoma City played an additional game since the initial data gathering and shows 41 games played totals, a 5-4 shootout loss to the Grand Rapids Griffins.)

The first breakdown is one for the players. Space limitations don’t allow for proper presentation, so the data is here in this GOOGLE DOC. This is a breakdown of assists, broken down by first and second assists on the Barons goal scorers.

Jordan Eberle scored 25 goals to lead the Barons – with a 23.6% shooting percentage – but rookie Justin Schultz amplified his legendary entry into the pro by carving up defenses, scoring goals and setting up scoring chances with veteran poise and flashes of offensive brilliance. Schultz combined with Eberle on 10 goals, eight primary assists, two secondary.

Schultz scored 18 goals, with nine assists registered by Eberle, seven as primary, two as secondary.

Taylor Hall had five primary assists, all at even strength, on Eberle goals, adding three more secondary assists. I took a snippet of the google doc shown below to show how the goals/assists relation breaks down by even strength or power play.

Using Jordan Eberle as an example, all eight of Justin Schultz primary assists on Eberle’s goals were evenly split among even-strength and on the power play. Taylor Hall’s five primary assists were all at even strength.

Players	M. Arcobello	T. Hartikainen	J. Schultz	R. Nugent-Hopkins	M. Marincin	J. Eberle	T. Hall	A. Lander
J. Eberle	3	2	8	2			5
PP	1	2	4	1
ES	2		4	1			5
J. Schultz	2	1		1		7	1	1
PP	1			1		3	1
ES	1	1				4		1
R. Nugent-Hopkins			1			3	4
EN							1
PP						3
ES			1				3
T. Hartikainen	1		2			2	1	1
PP			1			2	1
ES	1		1					1
M. Arcobello		1	1			2	1
ES		1	1			2	1
M. Paajarvi		1	1		1
PP			1
ES		1			1

Goals By Period

A dozen of Eberle’s 25 goals were scored in the first period, five were game opening goals.

The breakdown of Barons goals scored by period also reveals Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scoring five of his seven goals in the third period, one each when the score ranged from the Barons down two goals, to the Barons up two goals – a game circumstance that will be expanded on below.

It’s not enough to know what period a player’s goals were scored. Of the seven third period goals scored by Jordan Eberle, two were into an empty net. Both those goals count as 40% of the five goals scored with the Barons up one goal.

Looking at the game situation when players scored adds just another further layer of context. Justin Schultz score 11 goals when the Barons were down two goals, down one, or tied, however is the runaway leader scoring four times with the Barons up by two goals. One of those was an empty net marker, with the goalie pulled.

The chart below indicates how close scores have been relatively for Oklahoma City as the big scorers, Eberle, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins and Schultz scored the majority of their markers in close games, with the score conditions ranging from the Barons down two goals to the Barons being up one – mainly by Eberle’s five markers.

Even hard working and multi-faceted Teemu Hartikainen has three goals split evenly in this range.

Oklahoma City scored 31 goals when down by two, a high amongst categories.

Players	-4	-3	-2	-1	T	1	2	3	4	-5	Total
M. Arcobello			2	5	1	1		1			10
J. Green			2		1		1				4
M. Marincin		2		1							3
J. Schultz	2	1	3	4	4		4				18
T. Hartikainen	1		3	3	3				1		11
J. Eberle	2	4	5	6	2	5		1			25
C. Hamilton					1	1					2
M. Paajarvi			1	1	1					1	4
R. Nugent-Hopkins			3	2	1	1	1				8
T. House			1					1			2
D. Byers			2			1					3
A. Tyrvainen		1									1
T. Hall		3	3	1	4	2	1				14
T. Fedun				1		1					2
T. Rajala		1	1	1							3
C. Teubert						1	1				2
A. Lander			2		1						3
C. VandeVelde					1						1
T. Pitlick									1		1
P. Cornet			1								1
R. Martindale			2								2
Total	5	12	31	25	20	13	8	3	2	1	120

On Ice Goals For and Against

Moving on from game situations we get into on ice performance. It’s a shame the AHL doesn’t make time on ice available for players. Below is the breakdown by player for each time they were on the ice for each goals scored overall and by special teams, power play and shorthanded.

Without time on ice statistics to make more accurate conclusions by minutes rather than events, this is just the first step to identify patterns of players on ice performance.

Some conclusions can be drawn, however, with comparisons across teammates and then across other teams.

For instance, Mike Kostka of the Toronto Marlies was on the ice for 60 goals scored by the Marlies, who had scored 127 goals in that span. Kostka was on the ice for 47% of the Toronto Marlies overall goals scored. I though that was an impressive number until Justin Schultz breakdown trumped that.

Schultz was on the ice for 81 goals scored, out of the 120 scored by the Barons, Schultz was on the ice for a whopping 67.5% of the team’s goals. I haven’t broken down the entire league, but that is a significant amount of goals to be on the ice for as a rookie who had not played a professional hockey game prior to the 2012-13 season.

Breaking it down even further, he was on the ice for 36 power play goals. The Barons had a power play percentage of 24% based on 41 goals in 170 opportunities. Schultz was on the ice for 87% of the Barons power play goals.

The 51 goals against while he was on the ice, represents 40% of the Barons goals against.

Haritkainen (33 - 80.5%) and Eberle (34 - 82.9%) were the only other Baron players above the 30 goals for plateau with the man advantage. Eberle was on the ice for 68 total goals, meaning half his on-ice goals for were accounted on the power play. He accounted for 22 power play points, including eight goals.

Schultz scored 25 power play points, (7-18-25) and Hartikainen (5-8-13).

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins dressed for 19 contests and was on the ice for 32 goals scored, with 12 power play points (3-9-12) to compliment his being on the ice for 16 power play goals scored – half of the 32 in total.

Drawing conclusions is difficult due to the incomplete nature of shots on goal and ice time.

Player	GF	PPGF	SHF	GA	PPGA	SHA
Schultz	81	36	2	51	11	0
Eberle	68	34	0	24	0	4
Hartikainen	55	33	0	26	0	4
Hall	46	24	0	22	0	2
Arcobello	45	22	0	33	2	1
Marincin	41	4	1	31	2	0
Cheechoo	32	16	0	10	0	2
Nugent-Hopkins	32	16	0	10	0	2
Paajarvi	29	12	1	33	7	1
Fedun	24	5	0	33	7	1
Lander	22	5	0	30	1	1
VandeVelde	14	0	2	36	17	0
Byers	13	1	2	24	10	0
Plante	13	0	1	29	9	0
Teubert	13	1	1	27	10	0
Deck	12	0	0	23	2	0
Green	12	4	0	17	1	0
Hamilton	11	1	1	25	4	0
Pitlick	11	3	0	17	0	1
Henry	10	1	1	18	6	0
Martindale	9	1	0	5	0	1
House	7	0	0	24	9	0
Rajala	5	0	0	5	0	0
Pelss	4	0	0	2	0	0
Ringwald	4	0	0	8	2	0
Cornet	3	2	0	4	0	0
Tyrvainen	3	0	0	2	0	0
Hotham	2	0	0	1	0	0
Lafranchise	2	0	0	13	5	0
Zahn	2	0	0	13	5	0
Abney	1	0	0	2	0	0
Davidson	1	0	0	3	2	0
Lizon	1	0	0	2	0	0
Hunter	0	0	0	1	0	0

I will go deeper into AHL teams scoring over the course of the next couple of month, perhaps not as extensive with the Barons, but they certainly were an exciting team to watch to open the season. As much firepower that they had, the defensive game wasn't always apparent and it made for quite dramatic hockey.

Tune in for more Breaking Boxcars.

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