Owen Power – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – BUFFALO SABRES – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Sat, 27 Sep 2025 16:49:22 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - JANUARY 21: Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin (26) waits for a face off during an NHL game between the Buffalo Sabres and the Vancouver Canucks on Tuesday, January 21, 2025 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, B.C. (Photo by Ethan Cairns/Icon Sportswire)

Last season, the Sabres turned back the clock and welcomed Lindy Ruff back as head coach after they dismissed Don Granato in hopes of ending the franchise’s playoff drought. Instead, the Sabres took a step back as they adjusted to the tougher ways Ruff brings behind the bench. The Sabres went from 84 points in 2023-2024 to 79 in 2024-2025. While Buffalo was able to score plenty at five-on-five (185 goals, fourth in NHL), their power play was slightly improved going from 16.6 to 18.8 percent but their penalty kill got worse going from 79.8 to 76.4 percent. With the kinds of offensive weapons they have, improving the power play is a necessity and if they’re going to be a playoff contender, the penalty kill must improve dramatically. Ruff returns for his second season and will hope to help them avoid a 15th straight season out of the playoffs.

What’s Changed?

Big changes usually happen in Buffalo after a disappointing season and while they avoided making coaching or executive changes, they traded their second leading scorer J.J. Peterka to Utah for defenceman Michael Kesselring and forward Josh Doan. Peterka made it clear he didn’t want to stay in Buffalo and wouldn’t re-sign with them as a restricted free agent and in return the Sabres got a righthanded defenceman in Kesselring they view to be the potential long-term partner for Owen Power or Rasmus Dahlin. With Doan, they get a high intensity forechecker and energetic player with loads of upside as well as an NHL lineage as the son of Shane Doan. Buffalo also added defenceman Conor Timmins from Pittsburgh in a draft weekend trade and signed goalie Alex Lyon and energetic forward Justin Danforth in free agency. If the goal of the offseason was to make the roster into more of a classic Lindy Ruff-style team, that’s what general manager Kevyn Adams accomplished.

What Would Success Look Like?

Playoffs. That’s it. The Sabres have been close enough to make it without doing so in recent years and that didn’t do anything to quell the fan base. If Tage Thompson (44 goals) and Alex Tuch (36 goals) pick up where they left off a year ago and Rasmus Dahlin continues to assert himself as one of the premier defencemen in the NHL, there’s no reason the Sabres shouldn’t be in striking range of the playoffs. A return to form for goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and a big step forward points-wise from defenceman Owen Power would allow Buffalo the chance to perhaps even threaten for a top three spot in the Atlantic Division, but that’s putting the cart way before the horse. There are zero questions about the talent level, but plenty of questions about how to make the talent work best.

What Could Go Wrong?

If the special teams continue to struggle and if Luukkonen’s goaltending falters again, it could be yet another long season in Buffalo. The team cannot afford to get off to a slow start and must avoid any extended losing streaks to keep up with the playoff race. Their 0-10-3 stretch during November and December last season virtually eliminated them from playoff contention because the hole they fell in was too deep to get out of. It took Boston faltering even harder to get Buffalo out of last place in the Atlantic. The Sabres are relying on Josh Norris returning healthy, for Jiri Kulich to take a step forward and Ryan McLeod to repeat what he did last season for their center depth to lead the way. It’s not exactly asking a lot, but it’s not an easy ask just the same. The number of “if” statements attached to them for things to work out is uncomfortable.

Top Breakout Candidate

When last season began, it wasn’t a definite that Jiri Kulich was going to be part of the Sabres roster, but he quickly made sure to do the right things to stay in Buffalo. His 15 goals and nine assists in 62 games and ability to play well enough at center to earn a spot on the top line late in the season with Thompson and Zach Benson. Kulich’s history in the AHL showed he can fill the net (24 and 27 goals in his 18-year and 19-year-old seasons) and there is more growth to come for the 21-year-old Czech with an elite shot. If he earns more power play time and continues to play minutes in the top six, the chances will pile up for him to score more.

FORWARDS

Tage Thompson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	46	32	78	1.01

If there were any worries about whether Tage Thompson would be able to regain his goal scoring prowess after seeing his goal total fall to 29 in 2023-2024 from his career-high 47 in 2022-2023, they disappeared in 2024-2025. Thompson led the Sabres with 44 goals last season and returned to his electrifying ways of filling the net. What’s more impressive is he did it while leading the league with 37 even strength goals. It might be viewed as worrisome that he posted just seven power play goals, but the Sabres power play struggled all season (ninth worst in the NHL) trying to find cohesion. You’d have to imagine that if their power play struggles get hammered out and Thompson is able to fire blasts from the circle at will again that his goal totals could jump even higher. What’s most striking about how Thompson was able to fill the net again is he did it mostly from the wing after he was moved there following a lower-body injury early last season. He teamed up with Jiri Kulich and Zach Benson late in the season and thrived on Kulich’s right side. His move to wing opens up questions elsewhere in the lineup, but the results from seeing him light it up again from a different position are hard to argue. Thompson was the Sabres leading scorer with 72 points in 76 games and despite not being named to the United States roster for the Four Nations Face-Off, his performance leading the U.S. to gold at World Championships may help land him a spot on the Olympic team in February.

Alex Tuch

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	38	35	73	0.89

Alex Tuch proved last season that he can excel at both ends of the ice and provided a bright spot in what was a gloomy season for the team in Buffalo. Tuch was second on the Sabres with 36 goals and was tied with Rangers forward Vincent Trocheck for most shorthanded goals with six. Tuch’s two-way game shined as he used his long reach and big body to take away shot and pass lanes on the penalty kill as well as the forecheck. His ability to make teams pay for turning the puck over was vital on the Sabres’ ability to frustrate teams while shorthanded. Tuch had 67 points which made him fourth on the team in scoring. Even though he was able to help drive the Sabres offence a couple of seasons ago playing on the wing with Tage Thompson, he found success last season playing with Ryan McLeod and Peyton Krebs during the second half of the season. Coach Lindy Ruff was looking for lines that could generate offence and still be sensible defensively and that allowed Tuch to settle into a role on a line with guys who can generally play well in their own ends. With Tuch having that ability to finish in the offensive end of the ice, it helped lift up his linemates who aren’t generally counted on to contribute offensively. In Tuch’s case, it cracked open his natural ability to frustrate opponents with his size and reach defensively and to use that to his advantage at both ends of the ice. Tuch is entering the final year of his contract with the Sabres, and a big payday is on the horizon.

Josh Norris

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	22	24	46	0.71

The Sabres acquisition of former 35-goal scorer Josh Norris came in one of the bigger trades ahead of the deadline last season when they sent 2019 first-round pick Dylan Cozens to Ottawa for him. Norris’s career with the Senators was much maligned due to repeated shoulder injuries and surgeries and although those ailments appear to be behind him for now, his time with Buffalo was cut short last season due to an oblique injury he attempted to play through. Norris had a goal and an assist in three games with the Sabres after he put up 20 goals and 13 assists with Ottawa. Although he’s a center, Norris is a shooter more than a playmaker and where he figures to fit into the lineup is one of the bigger mysteries of the new season. Although he’ll play in the top six forward group, who his wingers will end up being is something worth watching out for. He’ll have a lot of options between Zach Benson, Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Jack Quinn, Jason Zucker and Josh Doan, but the Sabres will need to have Norris healthy more than anything else. In the past, Norris has shown himself to be a dynamite offensive player with a good shot and solid puck skills. It’s unfortunate he couldn’t get more of an introduction with his teammates last season, but if the Sabres are going to end their 14-year playoff drought, they’ll need him on the ice so as to not thin out their center group.

Ryan McLeod

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	19	35	54	0.66

Contract years tend to bring out the best in players and in Ryan McLeod’s case that was an exemplary truth. McLeod had a career-high 20 goals and 53 points after coming over from the Edmonton Oilers. He proved to be one of the most versatile players in the Sabres lineup as he was able to play center on any of the four lines, on the power play and most especially shorthanded. His speed and tenacity on the forecheck made him frustrating for opponents to get away from and no longer being pigeonholed as a solely checking line player proved to be advantageous to Buffalo given his massively increased offensive output. His great season earned him a four-year, $20 million restricted free agent deal. Considering the reaction to the trade that brought him to Buffalo in which he was swapped one-for-one with 2022 ninth overall pick Matthew Savoie was overwhelmingly negative for the Sabres, McLeod’s huge season and overall performance has helped make it out to be one of Buffalo general manager Kevyn Adams’s savvier trades. What’s worth watching now is how McLeod performs with higher expectations put upon him thanks to the new contract. Whether he’s centering the second, third or fourth lines or playing on the wing, the Sabres are content knowing they’ll get the same effort out of him regardless.

Jason Zucker

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	17	26	43	0.61

A year ago, Jason Zucker was the Sabres most noteworthy free agent signing and he came as advertised and provided a sorely needed veteran presence in the locker room for a very young team. Zucker had 21 goals and 32 assists and was the team’s leading scorer on the power play with 11 goals. He found a lot of success being around the net tipping pucks and cleaning up rebounds His speed and hockey know how injected an air of confidence into the lineup they sorely needed up front while some of their younger players struggled adapting to Lindy Ruff’s coaching style. After the Sabres bought out Jeff Skinner last summer, adding Zucker to replace his production while also giving them a player who can help better perform defensively was a needed change. Even though there were questions about where Zucker would best fit into the lineup, like Ryan McLeod, it didn’t necessarily matter which line he was on because he was going to play the same way no matter what. Although Zucker could’ve been a prime trade piece at the deadline, he signed a two-year, $9.5 million extension to stay with the Sabres. At 33 years old, he’s the Sabres oldest player. Make no mistake, his presence is vital to their young group in helping stay grounded and loose. His versatility in being able to play anywhere in the lineup makes him even more valuable to them.

Jiri Kulich

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
73	21	14	35	0.48

Among the many young players that make up the Sabres lineup, the emergence of Jiri Kulich in the NHL last season was a key one for their future. After he spent the past two seasons in the American Hockey League, Kulich forced his way into the Sabres lineup with his ability to handle play at center and his elite shot. He had 15 goals and nine assists in 62 games with the Sabres which doesn’t totally grab people’s attention, but when you consider he spent the latter part of the season as their No. 1 center between Zach Benson and Tage Thompson, it becomes a fair bit more impressive to take in. Kulich was the third of three first-round picks the Sabres made in 2022 and the 28th overall pick established a reputation as a goal scorer in the AHL as he put up 24 and 27 goals the previous two seasons. Although he was drafted and believed to be a winger, he’s taken to playing center by improving his attention to detail defensively and improving his work on faceoffs. Now 21 years old, Kulich is among the younger players on the roster but after proving his capabilities last season and showing that his offensive capabilities carried over from the AHL, it’ll be worth watching to see how his game grows in his second full NHL season, especially with the possibility of playing for Czechia in the Olympics on the horizon.

Jack Quinn

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	21	24	45	0.57

After coming off a season in which he missed half of it recovering from a torn Achilles tendon and then even more time with a broken leg afterwards, Jack Quinn was poised for a return to health and goal scoring form last season. But the change from Don Granato to Lindy Ruff as head coach didn’t go as smoothly for him. Despite all of that bad-sounding news, Quinn posted career-highs with 15 goals and 24 assists and 39 points in 74 games. The numbers outpaced his rookie season performance, which is good, but being two years removed from that makes it a bit of a downer. His pace was off and the attention to detail in his defensive game lapsed at times which didn’t help with his new head coach. Quinn signed a two-year, $6.75 million contract in the offseason that will function as a prove-it deal for him. Staying healthy like he did last season will go a long way to helping him do that. His shot creativity and ability to score off the rush are high end and when he’s playing at the top of his game he’s a dangerous scorer, but being able to stay consistent will be necessary. Now that Tage Thompson is on the wing, it makes things a bit more crowded on the right side with Thompson and Alex Tuch also on the right side. That said, now that both Dylan Cozens and J.J. Peterka are gone, the center Quinn fits best with is worth keeping an eye on be it Jiri Kulich, Josh Norris or Ryan McLeod.

Zach Benson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	12	24	36	0.47

If there’s one player up front to really watch to see how their game evolves this season, it’s Zach Benson. Benson was a big-time scorer in the WHL who used his offensive smarts, skill and ability to frustrate defenders with his tenaciousness. The latter trait has more than carried over into the NHL as he’s become an effective forechecker and penalty killer on top of being someone at the middle of many scrums after the whistle. Last season with Buffalo, Benson had 10 goals and 18 assists, numbers that were very slightly down from his rookie year. Benson just turned 20 in May and is headed into his third NHL season and that he made the Sabres roster as an 18-year-old said a lot about him and the Sabres alike. His dogged style of play, however, has endeared him to fans and earned respect from his coaches. He’s been a classic “if everyone played like him, they’d be doing great” kind of player, but for him to take his game to another level he must increase his offensive output. If Benson’s game evolves by continuing to do things that make him more like similarly statured players in the league like Brad Marchand, it would make for a massive change for the overall performance and attitude of the Sabres. If he continues to hover around the net and wreaks havoc, the goals will come.

Josh Doan

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	12	20	32	0.41

With the departure of J.J. Peterka to Utah, Josh Doan will be viewed as having some big skates to fill to help make up for the loss in scoring. At 23 years old, Doan’s NHL career is just getting started, however. Doan played 51 of his 62 career games last season and had seven goals and 12 assists while playing a third-or-fourth line role. He’s best known for his intense forechecking ability and getting in on plays deep in the zone to frustrate opposing defenders trying to exit the zone. He’s strong and quick and during his time playing at Arizona State and the AHL, showed a solid scoring touch. If he can see more of that translate over to the NHL, the Sabres will be very happy to see it although they’ll be satisfied having a guy that plays as hard as he does. It’s expected that Doan will play lower in the Sabres lineup either on the third or fourth lines, but having him work with guys like Peyton Krebs, Jordan Greenway or Beck Malenstyn could help give Buffalo a tough and annoying line to deal with each game. Being Shane Doan’s son, he might set a high bar for expectations for some, but Josh’s game should fit in well with what Lindy Ruff ideally wants to see the team play like.

DEFENCE

Rasmus Dahlin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	20	50	70	0.88

If fans weren’t aware of how good a defenceman Rasmus Dahlin was already, watching him or tracking his stats last season would’ve done the trick. Dahlin was a dominant presence for the Sabres and finished tied for second on the team in scoring with J.J. Peterka with 68 points in 73 games. He led Sabres defencemen in scoring, goals (17) and assists (51) as well as average time on-ice (24:14). For comparison’s sake, the Sabres’ other nine defencemen combined to score 23 goals. To say everything runs through Dahlin would be putting it lightly. What’s more remarkable about Dahlin’s performance last season is that virtually every defenceman who paired with him during the year saw their own performances improve greatly because of it. Dahlin’s play was noticeable enough to land him sixth in the voting by the PHWA for the Norris Trophy as the league’s best defenceman. With the puck on Dahlin’s stick and in control of the play up and down the ice, the Sabres’ best chances to score goals and win games comes when he’s on the ice. With Bo Byram re-signed and the addition of Michael Kesselring and Conor Timmins to the blue line corps, it remains to be seen who will start the season as Dahlin’s partner, but you’d have to think it would start with Byram who had some of his best play of the season alongside Dahlin. Regardless of who gets the call, however, expect Dahlin to continue to grow into one of the best defencemen in the league.

Owen Power

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	9	36	45	0.58

There’s a big step forward in Owen Power’s game that’s coming and it’s just a matter of when it will happen. Power had seven goals and 33 assists in 79 games last season and was second among Sabres defencemen in scoring behind Rasmus Dahlin. It was a career-year offensively for him, but fans are waiting for his game to take a leap forward the way Dahlin’s has. Although his defensive numbers weren’t as strong as you’d like to see, a lot of what he does very well to disrupt opponents doesn’t necessarily get tabulated in stats. This only serves to help make arguments about him get a bit heated. As an extremely smart player with and without the puck, Power can make elite plays with regularity. His size, reach and agility make him frustrating to play against for puck carriers and shooters, and now with the addition of Michael Kesselring and Conor Timmins, the hope for the Sabres is they’ve found a regular right-handed partner for Power to pair up with. Over his first few seasons in the league, he’s had a regular rotation of defence partners and a theory for his occasional struggles centered around the lack of consistency there. Expect to see Kesselring with him this season at some point if not immediately in camp.

Bowen Byram

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	8	33	41	0.50

When the Sabres acquired Bo Byram from Colorado two seasons ago, the hope was they added a player who would give them one of the most formidable defence units in the NHL. Last season, we saw a lot from Byram that helped encourage that belief. Byram had seven goals and a career-high 31 assists last season to set a new career-high in scoring with 38 points. As a lefthanded shot, Byram fitting into the Sabres lineup can be tricky with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and Mattias Samuelsson also being lefthanded. But when he paired with Dahlin, we got a chance to see some of what helped make him such a highly sought-after player. Byram’s ability to carry the puck through all three zones and his offensive instincts were noticeable while he worked with Dahlin and the quick moving play they developed together also didn’t necessarily hurt them defensively either. Although that pairing didn’t stick together all season, this summer’s additions might allow for them to be reunited on the top pairing. That Byram is back in Buffalo is a bit of a surprise. He was the subject of trade rumors throughout the offseason because of his restricted free agent status and the fact that Dahlin and Power are responsible for most of the five-on-five and power play time, but he signed a two-year, $12.5 million deal to avoid arbitration that will also walk him to unrestricted free agency when it ends. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to show what he can do until then.

Michael Kesselring

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	5	22	27	0.33

When the Sabres made their offseason trade with the Utah Mammoth to send J.J. Peterka out of town, the main player general manager Kevyn Adams zeroed in on was Michael Kesselring. This might sound a bit strange, but the reasons for going after the 6-foot-5 righthanded defenceman make a lot of sense. Kesselring has been a bit of a late bloomer since he was drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the sixth round in 2018. He spent three seasons in the AHL after he was signed by Edmonton out of Northeastern University and then was sent to Arizona in the Nick Bjugstad trade in 2023. With the Coyotes and Utah Hockey Club, however, he was able to grow and become a steady defensive defenceman who also possesses a powerful slap shot. In 82 games with Utah last season, Kesselring had seven goals and 22 assists as well as 89 penalty minutes thanks to his physical play and willingness to fight when called on. That kind of edge has been lacking overall from the Sabres lineup, but especially on the blue line. The hope is he’ll be able to pair with Owen Power and mind the defensive side of the game to a point to better allow Power the freedom to create more offensively and boost the Sabres attack further.

Goal

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
48	22	18	4	3	.905	3.05

Of all the league's starting goaltenders who stayed in place throughout the year, no one struggled more mightily than Buffalo's Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Cornered by a Sabres lineup that featured a limited-usage James Reimer and a still-developing Devon Levi, Luukkonen was left to shoulder the lion's share of the starts - and the result left Buffalo floundering as the agile but highly mobile Luukkonen struggled to find a flow amidst poor defence and growing fatigue. His numbers aren't entirely his fault; his game play looked like a severe mismatch with the defensive strategy in front of him, forcing extra scrambling for soft rebounds and limited sightlines for a goaltender who relies on his agility to get him where he needs to go in the nick of time.

In what seems to be a signal that Buffalo doesn't want to hamper Devon Levi's development, though, the Sabres have brought experienced veteran backup Alex Lyon into the fold to help weather the storm this year. At best, he can serve as a reliable, steadying technical presence during stretches in order to give Luukkonen a break without prematurely throwing Levi to the wolves full-time. And in a worst-case scenario, Luukkonen might end up being the odd man out, leaving Levi and Lyon to handle the workload for larger chunks of time. Either way, the Buffalo crease doesn't necessarily look set for the long term - but it does look like things might be less hectic for Luukkonen, at least for this year.

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Are the New York Rangers really this bad? – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 21 Dec 2024 13:30:15 +0000

_{NEW YORK, NY - MAY 30: Igor Shesterkin #31 of the New York Rangers prior to the National Hockey League Eastern Conference Final game 5 against the Florida Panthers on May 30, 2024 at Madison Square Garden in New York. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)}

Are the New York Rangers really this bad or just stuck in an absurdly long slump? Or is there a third possibility?

The common narrative seems to put the blame on Rangers president and GM Chris Drury, who some speculate has created a rift between management and the players that's having a significant impact on the ice. Vincent Z. Mercogliano of Lohud reported that some on the team have taken issue with Drury's methods, from waiving Barclay Goodrow to get around his no-trade clause to threatening to do the same to captain Jacob Trouba if he didn't sign off on a trade to Anaheim, to Drury reportedly issuing a memo that the Rangers were open for business on the trade front following a loss to Edmonton, despite team still being a strong 12-6-1 at that time.

Then there was the incident with Kaapo Kakko. Rangers coach Peter Laviolette decided to scratch him for Tuesday's tilt against Nashville after New York lost 10 of 13, dropping to 15-14-1. However, Kakko took exception to that, feeling he was getting unfairly singled out.

"I know you've got to do something as a coach when you're losing games, but I think it's just easy to pick a young guy and boot him out. That's how I feel, to be honest," Kakko said, per Mollie Walker of the New York Post. He added, "I have not been the worst guy. But that was me out of the lineup."

The Rangers ended up losing 2-0 to Nashville. The next day, Kakko was dealt to Seattle. Even if Kakko never really developed as the Rangers hoped when they selected him with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, that whole saga this week was another distraction that the team could ill afford.

But is this really as simple as mismanagement leading to the group failing to play up to its potential or is there a deeper problem? On the surface, the answer seems obvious. The Rangers reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022 and 2024 and started the campaign 12-4-1. How could this not be a team capable of contending?

There are some areas of concern, though. Chris Kreider's success has been driven by his ability to score goals, but he might be slowing in that regard at the age of 33. He has 10 markers in 28 appearances in 2024-25, which would be considered good for other players, but he doesn't bring a lot else to the table -- he has just one assist -- so that's worrying.

Mika Zibanejad has seen his production dip too. He has six goals and 21 points through 31 outings and is in a four-way tie for the fourth-worst plus/minus at minus-17. Plus/minus isn't the best metric, but he also has a relative 5v5 CF% and 5v5 FF% of minus-6.7 and minus-5.8, respectively, which suggests that his team is doing better in terms of puck possession when he's off the ice compared to when he's on it. He also has a 5v5 CF%/FF% of 44.0/44.2, which would represent career lows for him.

To some extent, this reminds me a little of what happened to the San Jose Sharks. They were a perennial contender through the 2018-19 campaign. They reached the Stanley Cup Final in 2016 and the Western Conference Final in 2019. San Jose was far from resting on its laurels either. Still searching for that elusive championship, San Jose acquired elite defenseman Erik Karlsson in September 2018 and locked him up to an eight-year, $92 million contract in the summer of 2019.

The stage seemed to be set for the Sharks to be Cup contenders in 2019-20. Sure, Joe Pavelski was gone, but the forward group of Timo Meier, Evander Kane, Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl was still fairly young. Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau were there as the veteran presences, and the duo of Karlsson and Brent Burns was one of the best on paper. Not only did San Jose fail to make the playoffs that year, but the Sharks haven't made it since. In retrospect, they misjudged their core and got caught in an awkward position of needing to rebuild but being slow to do so due to their already established long-term contracts.

It might be overly dramatic to suggest that the Rangers are a repeat of that, but a slump this long and dramatic is unusual and hard to dismiss.

Igor Shesterkin just has to hope that the Sharks comparison proves to be invalid. In that scenario, he'd be the Karlsson: A player who made a major commitment to a team he thought was going to be a contender, only to see some of his prime years squandered. Shesterkin recently agreed to his own eight-year, $92 million contract that doesn't even begin until next year. Maybe he'll end up having better luck with the team around him than Karlsson…

Boston Bruins (Mon @ VAN, Thu @ SJS, FRI @ ANA, Sun vs. SEA)

The upcoming week will be relatively light because the NHL will not play Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday due to its Christmas break. That said, there are still teams worth highlighting, starting with the Bruins, who begin the week with a difficult home game against Washington on Monday but will then face the rebuilding Blue Jackets on the road Friday and then in Boston on Saturday.

The Bruins' rough start to the campaign is largely behind them. From Nov. 21 onward, the Bruins have a 9-4-1 record to put them at 17-13-4 overall. The single biggest difference is that Boston has given up far fewer goals, going from an average of 3.45 goals allowed over its 8-9-3 start to 2.71 across its past 15 games.

Jeremy Swayman has been a benefactor of that, posting a 2.68 GAA over that 15-game span (he's appeared in 10 of those contests) while earning a 6-3-1 record. However, Swayman's save percentage during that stretch is a less impressive .892. It's worth noting that span includes a rough 8-1 loss to Winnipeg in which Swayman was charged with every goal. If you exclude that one start, then his save percentage during that span jumps to .912.

Boston's offense has also improved over the past 15 games, though it's still not special, earning 2.86 goals per game over that stretch compared to 2.40 during the first 20 games. Pavel Zacha and Morgan Geekie have provided some key secondary scoring recently, totaling nine and eight points, respectively, across Boston's last 15 outings. Neither one has been particularly consistent, though, and their production is only impressive when measured against their dreadful starts to the campaign.

Meanwhile, Elias Lindholm continues to underwhelm with five goals and 17 points through 34 appearances. However, he is on a three-game scoring streak (two goals, four points), so perhaps he'll be effective in the upcoming week.

Buffalo Sabres (Mon vs. DAL, Thu @ MIN, FRI vs. PIT, Sun vs. STL)

I started this article by highlighting the Rangers for their struggles, but Buffalo has been even worse. Going into Friday's action, the Sabres have lost 11 straight games, dropping to 11-17-4. Rather than showing signs of turning things around, they suffered a 6-1 loss to Montreal on Tuesday.

The Sabres won't face particularly stiff competition next week, though, so perhaps they can stabilize. They'll play on the road against the Islanders on Monday, host Chicago on Friday and conclude the week in St. Louis on Sunday.

Finding a diamond in the rough on a team doing that poorly is difficult. Jason Zucker is about as close as you'll come. He has eight goals and 21 points through 32 appearances, making this a nice bounce-back campaign for him after he finished 2023-24 with 32 points in 69 regular-season games between Arizona and Nashville. It helps that he's averaging 2:53 with the man advantage, which would be a career-high if he maintains that. Zucker has seven power-play points (three goals), which puts him on track to easily surpass his 2023-24 total of 10 and potentially even best his personal best of 16, which was set in 2017-18.

Outside of that, though, there isn't much to like. Rasmus Dahlin (back) is set to return on Friday, which should be a significant boost for Buffalo. The Sabres' losing streak predates Dahlin's seven-game absence, but it's still reasonable to say that Dahlin plays an important role for Buffalo and that his exclusion from the lineup was felt. He has six goals and 19 points in 25 appearances in 2024-25 while averaging 24:42 of ice time, including 3:23 with the man advantage.

Owen Power has been seeing significant power-play usage recently, but with Dahlin back, Power might be absent from the power play entirely for Friday's game. For other defensemen, that would be a big blow, but Power has failed to take advantage of that role -- he hasn't recorded a single power-play point in 2024-25 -- so it shouldn't change much for those who have Power on their team.

Dallas Stars (Mon @ BUF, Thu vs. VGK, FRI vs. TBL, Sun vs. MIN)

Dallas is set to play in Utah on Monday, host the Wild on Friday and play in Chicago on Sunday. It's not a bad schedule, but under normal circumstances, it wouldn't be good enough to highlight. Still, it's nice to have an opportunity to talk about Dallas, which has done well this campaign with a 19-12-0 record heading into Friday's action.

The Stars are also in an interesting spot right now. Matt Duchene is their scoring leader with 30 points (13 goals) in 31 appearances, but his hot start has come to an end with him recording just a goal and three points across his past nine outings. Duchene's cold stretch probably isn't the new normal, but it's equally fair to suggest that he overperformed early in the campaign. His shooting percentage, which remains an uncomfortably high 26.0, suggests that there might still be more backsliding to come. He might ultimately finish the campaign with 60-70 points, which would be in line with his 2023-24 results and would represent a mild, but not dramatic, scoring decline from his overall scoring pace this campaign.

Fortunately for Dallas, Duchene's decline has corresponded with Jason Robertson showing signs of life. The 25-year-old forward's overall numbers this campaign remain well below what you'd expect from him (seven goals and 21 points in 31 games), but he has collected two goals and six points over his past five appearances.

Jamie Benn has also been solid, recording an assist in each of his past six outings and contributing two goals and nine points across his last 10 games. His 20 points through 31 appearances in 2024-25 still put him on pace to finish below his 60-point regular-season total from 2023-24, but it still wouldn't be shocking to see him end up hitting that mark by the end of the campaign.

Minnesota Wild (Mon vs. TBL, Thu vs. BUF, FRI @ VGK, Sun vs. DAL)

The Wild will begin next week by hosting the Blackhawks before playing in Dallas on Friday and finally returning home to face the Senators on Sunday. Dallas, as discussed above, is a tough opponent, but Chicago is a rebuilding squad, and the Senators are a middling 7-7-1 on the road.

The big question out of Minnesota is the health of Filip Gustavsson. At the time of writing, he's out with a lower-body injury, but his status appears to be day-to-day, so it's possible he'll be back next week. Gustavsson has been a key part of Minnesota's success with a 14-5-3 record, 2.24 GAA and .922 save percentage in 22 appearances.

Marc-Andre Fleury has been mostly okay this campaign, but the 40-year-old netminder is coming off a rough 6-1 loss to Florida on Wednesday, which dropped him to a 2.88 GAA and a .898 save percentage through 10 outings this season. The current alternative to him is Jesper Wallstedt, who stopped 24 of 27 shots en route to a 3-2 loss to Vegas on Dec. 15. To be fair to both goaltenders, Florida and Vegas are some of the toughest competition they could have possibly faced.

Still, it seems reasonable that they'll need a meaningful amount of goal support going forward. Fortunately for the Wild, Kirill Kaprizov is continuing to play like Kirill Kaprizov. The elite forward has nine goals and 14 points over his past 11 appearances, which gives him 22 goals and 48 points in 31 outings overall. Mats Zuccarello also returned Dec. 14 from a lower-body injury and has gotten back to work with three assists over three outings.

Zuccarello's return also means Matt Boldy has shifted to the second line. Boldy has an impressive 13 goals and 30 points in 32 contests in 2024-25, but Kaprizov has been involved in 18 of those points. They are still sharing the ice on the power play, but if they don't skate together regularly in 5-on-5 situations, then Boldy might see a modest decline in production.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Mon @ STL, Thu vs. VGK, FRI @ BUF, Sun @ TBL)

Pittsburgh seemed doomed to miss the playoffs again based on its 7-12-4 start, but the Penguins have rebounded by going 8-2-1 since. Can they keep it up next week? They'll host the Flyers on Monday before a back-to-back set against the Islanders on Saturday and Sunday. Pittsburgh will be on the road for the first half of that set and then play at home.

So who is responsible for Pittsburgh's comeback? Is it Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin? Actually, it's Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell.

That's not to take anything away from Crosby, who has nine goals and 35 points in 34 outings in 2024-25, or Malkin, who has seven goals and 27 points. However, Crosby has been largely productive during the good times and bad while Malkin was actually doing better early in the campaign.

Their importance is clear, but what has really changed recently is Rust and Rakell providing far more than just secondary scoring. If I told you that a Penguins forward had nine goals and 17 points across the past 11 appearances without providing any other context, your first guess would likely be Malkin or Crosby, but that's what Rust has done. He was limited early in the campaign due to injury, but he's been playing some of the best hockey of his career lately.

Rakell has been nearly as good, supplying eight goals and 14 points across the same 11-game span. That brings him up to 15 goals and 26 points through 34 outings overall. His offensive struggles in 2023-24, dropping to 37 points from 60 points in 2022-23, were part of why the Penguins fell short of playoffs last year, so it seems appropriate that his resurgence is leading Pittsburgh back into postseason contention.

Not everything is rosy with the Penguins, though. Goaltending was the team's biggest issue early in the campaign and it remains a question mark. Tristan Jarry has a 3.62 GAA and a .883 save percentage through 14 outings and has surrendered at least three goals in three of his past four starts. Alex Nedeljkovic isn't giving the Penguins much of an alternative, though, with his own 3.26 GAA and .886 save percentage through 14 outings.

Pittsburgh does rank 28th in xGA/60 (3.30), per Moneypuck, which suggests that the defense in front of the netminders deserves part of the blame. However, Nedeljkovic has a goals saved above expected of minus-6.0 while Jarry is at minus-6.5, so this seems to be a case of both a bad defense and poor goaltending. The result is Pittsburgh ranks last in the league in goals allowed per game at 3.68. For context, that's just outside of the top-10 worst of any team in the salary cap era (2005-06 and onward). Of the teams who have posted a goals allowed per game worse than Pittsburgh, none of them finished with a points percentage of .500 or better.

St. Louis Blues (Mon vs. PIT, Thu @ DAL, FRI vs. TBL, Sun @ BUF)

The Blues will start next week with a game in Detroit on Monday, but after that, they'll return to St. Louis to host Nashville on Friday and Buffalo on Sunday. St. Louis has been a mixed bag in 2024-25, posting a 15-16-3 record going into Friday's action.

Jordan Binnington has left plenty to be desired this campaign with an 8-13-3 record, 3.00 GAA and .896 save percentage in 25 appearances. He's had some good stretches, but he's been inconsistent and is presently in a cold stretch after allowing at least three goals in six of his past seven games. His struggles have led to Joel Hofer becoming more of a 1B rather than a true backup, and Hofer might begin to migrate into being the 1A. The 24-year-old hasn't been stealing the show, but he has been the better option with a 7-3-0 record, 2.72 GAA and .907 save percentage through 11 appearances.

Of course, the Blues aren't alone in their goaltending woes. We just discussed a worse situation in Pittsburgh, but St. Louis doesn't have the offensive prowess to make up for it. The Blues rank 30th in goals per game with 2.50.

Robert Thomas has done well recently with four goals and 14 points across his past nine appearances while Jordan Kyrou has supplied seven goals and eight points over the same stretch, so the team isn't completely devoid of scoring, but it lacks depth and consistency.

Brandon Saad stands out as someone who has been disappointing when it comes to secondary scoring. After supplying 26 goals and 42 points in 82 outings last year, he has four markers and 10 points through 30 appearances in 2024-25. His decline has led to St. Louis using him less and less. He's even set to be a healthy scratch Friday. At this point, I don't have a lot of hope that he'll rebound, though he's not too old at 32, so anything is possible.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Mon @ MIN, Thu vs. PIT, FRI @ STL, Sun @ PIT)

Tampa Bay is riding a five-game winning streak and is 7-1-0 over its past eight to improve to 18-10-2 on the season. The Lightning will seek to keep that momentum going next week, when it plays in Florida on Monday and hosts the Rangers and the Canadiens on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

The Lightning deserve a lot of credit for moving on from Steven Stamkos and instead signing Jake Guentzel over the summer. While Stamkos has started to find his way with Nashville after a rocky start, Guentzel is four years younger and has proven to be a great fit.

Guentzel enjoyed an incredible seven-game goal-scoring streak from Nov. 30-Dec. 17 and now has 18 markers and 33 points across 30 appearances in 2024-25. The trio of Guentzel, Brayden Point (21 goals and 38 points in 26 outings) and Nikita Kucherov (14 goals and 35 points in 31 appearances) have been wildly successful. It would not be shocking if each of those three finished the campaign with over 40 goals and 80 points. That alone would make the Lightning a dangerous adversary, but they also have Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli excelling on the second line with 37 and 28 points, respectively.

One underrated aspect of this team is how well Tampa Bay has performed defensively. The Lightning ranked 18th in xGA/60 last campaign (3.14) but are sixth in 2024-25 (2.78). That's part of the reason why Andrei Vasilevskiy has looked so much better this campaign, posting a 2.38 GAA and a .911 save percentage through 25 appearances compared to his 2.90 GAA and .900 save percentage in 51 regular-season games last year.

Tampa Bay could use a better backup, though. Jonas Johansson has a 3.84 GAA and .882 save percentage in six appearances, and the Lightning's lack of trust in him has led to Tampa Bay leaning heavily on Vasilevskiy. The 30-year-old Vasilevskiy is no stranger to heavy workloads, but I have to wonder if the Lightning won't look to add a goaltender at some point in the hopes of managing Vasilevskiy a bit ahead of what Tampa Bay doubtlessly hopes will be a lengthy playoff run.

Vegas Golden Knights (Mon vs. SEA, Thu @ DAL, FRI vs. MIN, Sun @ BOS)

The Golden Knights have a relatively favorable week ahead of them. They'll host the Ducks on Monday, play in San Jose on Friday and then return home to face the Flames on Sunday. Vegas is 21-8-3 and has been particularly dominant at home (12-3-0), though the Golden Knights should also be heavy favorites against the 11-19-5 Sharks, even if that is a road engagement.

Injuries have been a recurring issue for Vegas in recent years, and while they haven't been immune to them in 2024-25, it hasn't been as bad. Vegas has nine forwards, including Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev and Tomas Hertl, and four defensemen, namely Noah Hanifin, Shea Theodore, Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden McNabb, who have logged at least 29 of 32 games. That doesn't make Vegas special from a health perspective, but it's certainly not bad.

Mark Stone is the main notable exception to that. He was so good early in the campaign with six goals and 21 points through 13 appearances, but he suffered a lower-body injury that kept him out of 14 games from Nov. 8-Dec. 4. Since returning, he's been fine, but the injury stopped his momentum, leaving him with four assists across his past five outings.

Eichel's been healthy, though, and on his way to having the best campaign of his career. He's up to nine goals and 42 points through 32 outings. Eichel's never recorded more than 82 points in a single campaign, in large part due to injuries. That's killed the whole Eichel versus Connor McDavid debate -- although Eichel is the one with a championship, there's no question who has been more impressive -- but not too much has separated them so far this campaign. McDavid is narrowly ahead with 15 goals and 45 points through 29 outings.

Another former Sabres forward has been even hotter than Eichel recently. Surprisingly, Victor Olofsson has provided four goals over his past four games. He had just seven goals and 15 points over 51 outings last year, and a lower-body injury that sidelined him from Oct. 17-Nov. 29 (a total of 20 games missed) has complicated his first campaign with Vegas. However, it'll be interesting to see if he can keep this going now that he's healthy. Olofsson did score 28 goals in 2022-23 and has surpassed the 20-goal milestone three times, so there is some upside here, especially with Vegas currently using him on the second line and first power-play unit.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Vilardi heating up, Kakko on the move, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 21 Dec 2024 00:53:01 +0000

_{LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 13: Winnipeg Jets center Gabriel Vilardi (13) celebrates his goal during an NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on December 13, 2023 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)}

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Gabriel Vilardi is hot, Pavel Buchnevich is thriving on the wing, Kirill Marchenko leads the surprising Blue Jackets, a fresh start for Kaapo Kakko, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Winnipeg Jets right-winger Gabriel Vilardi is heating up. The 25-year-old forward has tallied 11 points (5 G, 6 A) with 16 shots on goal while averaging 19:26 of ice time per game in his past eight games. He is in a great spot, skating on the Jets’ top line with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, as well as playing on the top power-play unit. Injuries have been a significant factor in Vilardi’s career, and he has never played more than 63 games in a season, so it is surprising that he has played in all 34 games for the Jets thus far. Vilardi has 28 points already, so if he remains healthy, he should surpass his career high of 41 points set in 2022-2023.

#2 The St. Louis Blues tried to shift Pavel Buchnevich to centre at the start of the season, confident that his all-around game would fit in that role, and it did not bring out the best in the veteran forward. He has been returned to the wing and in 10 games since Jim Montgomery took over behind the Blues bench, Buchnevich has contributed nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 27 shots on goal and has most recently found himself skating on a line with Jake Neighbours and Robert Thomas.

#3 The leading scorer for the Columbus Blue Jackets this season, with 33 points (11 G, 22 A) in 33 games, is third-year right winger Kirill Marchenko. In his past 15 games, he has 17 points (5 G, 12 A) and 46 shots on goal. He plays 18 minutes per game, consistently generates shots and has a good thing going on Columbus’ top line with Dmitri Voronkov and Sean Monahan.

#4 With just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 30 games for the New York Rangers, right winger Kaapo Kakko was traded to the Seattle Kraken, an opportunity for a fresh start for the second pick in the 2019 Draft. Kakko, 23, had career highs of 18 goals and 40 points during the 2022-2023 season but has not been able to generate enough offense to meet expectations. While Kakko’s puck possession numbers aren’t great this season, it has typically been a strength of his, so he should be able to hold a regular spot in the Kraken lineup. In his first game for Seattle, Kakko skated on a line with Jared McCann and Matty Beniers, which would be a decent spot for him to find his offensive game.

#5 With the Edmonton Oilers scoring at a high rate, ranking second in the league over the past month, there are secondary sources of offense available on this squad. One worth considering is defenceman Darnell Nurse, who has five assists and 14 shots on goal in his past six games. Nurse has 15 points (3 G, 12 A) in 29 games, with just one point on the power play, but he has been this productive despite an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.1 percent during five-on-five play. That mark should go up, so it would be a reasonable expectation for Nurse to score at least a half-point per game for the rest of the season. For a player who delivers hits and blocked shots as well, Nurse has value in most fantasy formats.

#6 Colorado Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen has thrived with the Avs, where his hard-working industrious style of play complements Colorado’s highly skilled top players. In his past 11 games, Lehkonen has nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 25 shots on goal while averaging more than 22 minutes of ice time per game. He skates on Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, which is obviously a prime position for Lehkonen to continue delivering offensive production.

#7 After a slow start to the season, veteran Utah Hockey Club right winger Nick Schmaltz has started to break out of his slump, scoring at a more typical rate. Through his first 19 games of the season, Schmaltz had zero goals and 13 assists with 38 shots on goal. In a dozen games since then, he has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) with 30 shots on goal. As a key player on Utah’s top line and first power play unit, Schmaltz tends to be a reliable scoring threat and appears to be back on track.

#8 As the Buffalo Sabres are watching their season go down the drain, defenceman Owen Power has quietly been very productive. While Power has 20 points (4 G, 16 A) in 32 games, it’s notable that all 20 points have come at even strength, which puts him third in even-strength scoring among defencemen, behind only Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. Power’s offensive ceiling would seem to be limited in Buffalo, where Rasmus Dahlin (currently injured) and Bowen Byram have power play priority, but the towering defender is already productive at 22 years old.

#9 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry has become a consistently productive scorer in recent seasons, even if it sometimes gets overlooked because of where he plays. In his past 11 games, Terry has put up 13 points (3 G, 10 A) with 37 shots on goal while averaging 19:53 of ice time per game. On a Ducks team trying to build around young players, Terry is skating on a line with Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome on Anaheim’s No. 1 line.

#10 The Anaheim Ducks shuffled the deck on their blueline, dealing veteran defenceman Cam Fowler to the St. Louis Blues and part of the reason for the change was to give younger defencemen the opportunity to step into bigger roles. Second-year blueliner Jackson LaCombe is making the most of his chances and, in December, has suddenly produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal in seven games. He is playing nearly 20 minutes per game in that time and is getting first-unit power play time, which makes him a legitimate option for fantasy managers.

#11 Nashville Predators defenceman Roman Josi has been battling a lower-body injury and has landed on the injured list. With Josi out, Brady Skjei takes over as the quarterback on the Nashville power play. Skjei has failed to record a point in each of his past nine games, despite playing nearly 23 minutes per game, leaving him with nine points (2 G, 7 A) in 32 games. That is a long way off the pace that Skjei set in Carolina over the previous three seasons when he produced 124 points (40 G, 84 A) in 243 games for the Hurricanes.

#12 Another former Hurricane, winger Teuvo Teravainen started slowly upon his return to Chicago, managing eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his first 18 games, with half of those goals and points coming in the third game of the season. Since then, Teravainen has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 15 games and he is skating on Chicago’s third line, alongside Jason Dickinson and Ilya Mikheyev.

#13 It would be too soon to recommend Oilers right winger Connor Brown in anything but the deepest of leagues, but he is worth keeping an eye on because the Oilers are not getting consistent production from their wingers and Brown did contribute more offensively before joining the Oilers last season. Brown managed just a dozen points (4 G, 8 A) in 71 games for Edmonton last season, but is up to 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 32 games this season after producing eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past 11 games.

#14 Red Winger centre J.T. Compher has contributed a point per game (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games, a sudden increase in his offensive output. While his ice time is down by 2:33 per game compared to last season, Compher is still getting first-unit power play time in addition to his time at centre on Detroit’s third line. As a player who had 48 and 52 points, respectively, in the previous two seasons, Compher is behind his previous scoring pace, but if he remains productive, his ice time will likely climb.

#15 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a consistent contributor but has elevated his level of play in the past month. In 14 games, he has 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 30 shots on goal. Bjorkstrand gets first unit power play time for the Kraken, but only five of his 23 points this season have come with the man advantage. The recent uptick in his production has come at even strength, where he has more recently been playing with Shane Wright and Eeli Tolvanen. Bjorkstrand tallied a career-high 59 points (20 G, 39 A) last season, with 25 points on the power play, so that would seem to be an area that still has room for further improvement.

#16 Vegas Golden Knights winger Ivan Barbashev has been sidelined with an upper-body injury and it’s worth pointing out what a big hole that leaves in the lineup. Barbarshev has 26 points during five-on-five play and Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov is the only player in the league with more points during five-on-five play. Certainly, playing with Jack Eichel is a big part of Barbashev’s success, and Pavel Dorofeyev has joined Eichel and Stone on Vegas’ top line with Barbashev out of the lineup. Dorofeyev played 19:31 in Thursday’s win against Vancouver, the second-highest ice time of his career.

#17 As the Pittsburgh Penguins may be turning around a season that looked hopelessly lost, defenceman Matt Grzelcyk has turned into a solid contributor, putting up nine points (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games. Eight of Grzelcyk’s 17 points this season have come on the power play and the Penguins are running a rare power play with two defencemen on the top unit and it’s been Grzelcyk and Kris Letang in those roles, with Erik Karlsson on PP2.

#18 There are ups and downs along the path for Montreal Canadiens goaltender Samuel Montembeault, who has had nine games this season in which he has allowed at least four goals, but he has a .914 save percentage to go along with a 4-3 record in seven starts this month. He has 7.73 Goals Saved Above Expected this season, which ranks eighth in the league, ahead of Igor Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, and Jacob Markstrom. Wins might not come so easily for the Canadiens goaltender, but his performance thus far makes him a legitimate fantasy option and it backs up Team Canada’s choice to include him on the roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off.

#19 Sticking with all situations Goals Saved Above Expected but looking at the low end of the spectrum, the goaltenders with the fewest Goals Saved Above Expected this season: Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (-14.53), San Jose’s Alexandar Georgiev (-13.56), Columbus’ Daniil Tarasov (-11.39), Utah’s Connor Ingram (-9.61), and Carolina’s Spencer Martin (-9.56). From that group, Swayman obviously stands out, given the strong track record that he had prior to this season, but Ingram had an excellent season in 2023-2024, so his decline before getting hurt is notable, too. The goaltenders at the top of the list might be surprising, too, at least after Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (+22.84). The rest of the top five are: Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal (+17.51), Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz (+13.46), Seattle’s Joey Daccord (+11.39), and Utah’s Karel Vejmelka (+10.94).

#20 There are some popular players with fantasy managers who are running ice cold lately, including New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton, Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson, the Rangers’ Chris Kreider, and Buffalo’s Alex Tuch, among others. Hamilton has gone seven games without a point and his ice time has dropped below 18 minutes in three of his past four games. In his past five games, Pettersson has zero points and eight shots on goal, while averaging 16:50 of ice time per game. Kreider recorded his first (and only) assist of the season on December 6th and has since gone six straight games without a point, though he does have 17 shots on goal in that span. Tuch has one point (1 G, 0 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past six games and played a season-low 14:34 against Montreal on Tuesday.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – What to make of the Buffalo Sabres – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 14 Dec 2024 16:41:42 +0000

_{ST. LOUIS, MO - FEBRUARY 25: Sabres center Tage Thompson (72) during a NHL game between the Buffalo Sabres and the St. Louis Blues on February 25, 2022, at Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire),}

How should we define the 2024-25 Buffalo Sabres? On paper, they’re not a terrible team. Tage Thompson is an elite goal scorer, and Alex Tuch is a good first-line forward and well suited to being Thompson’s accomplish. Rasmus Dahlin, though currently out with a back injury, is a high-end offensive blueliner, and the Sabres also have two promising young defensemen on the rise in Owen Power and Bowen Byram. In net, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has shown that he can be a solid option.

This isn’t a good team either, though. The Sabres do have some offensive depth, especially with Jason Zucker enjoying a comeback campaign (seven goals and 20 points through 29 appearances), but their overall scoring still isn’t anything special. The blueliners do have a mixture of talent and promise, but as a squad, the Sabres have struggled on defense, as evidenced by the team ranking 22nd in xGA/60 (3.13) per Moneypuck. Those shortcomings have trickled down to Luukkonen, who has an 8-8-3 record, 2.79 GAA and .903 save percentage in 20 starts despite a passable plus-2.6 goals saved above expected.

More than anything, Buffalo is inconsistent. Sometimes this group can click, which led to Buffalo looking like a potential contender for a playoff spot earlier in the campaign, but other times they fall apart. Buffalo has lost its last eight games, dropping its record to 11-14-4.

That kind of inconsistency would be more forgivable if Buffalo was a rebuilding team, but is that still an appropriate definition for the Sabres? They certainly do still have younger players like defensemen Power and Byram, forwards Dylan Cozens and Zach Benson as well as goaltender Devon Levi honing his game in the minors. None of those five have celebrated their 24th birthday yet, so it’s reasonable to believe their game will continue to grow.

At the same time, Tuch and Thompson are already in their prime, albeit in the early stages at 28 and 27 years old, respectively. Dahlin is still young but also in his seventh campaign, so ideally this is a foundation that should have started to get results by now.

But those results never come. You could easily make an argument that this is a rebuilding team even with those three either in or approaching their prime, but you could have made the argument that basically every Sabres team over the last decade has been a rebuilding squad. At some point, you need to transition from rebuild.

It’s been nine years since Jack Eichel was selected as the No. 2 overall pick to be the Sabres’ future. It’s been six years since Dahlin was selected as the No. 1 overall pick to headline Buffalo’s defense. It’s been four years since Power was taken with the top pick, giving the Sabres a potentially amazing blue-line duo. It’s been three years since that relationship soured to the point where Buffalo traded him to Vegas.

Buffalo hasn’t participated in a single playoff game over that span. That’d be bad enough, but the drought dates back even further. When Buffalo was last a playoff team in 2011, Tomas Vanek was the Sabres’ leading scorer and Thompson’s age. Tyler Ennis was among the team’s promising young forwards while Tyler Myers was a sophomore coming off a Calder Trophy-winning campaign. Ryan Miller was in his prime, having won the Vezina Trophy the previous year. Lindy Ruff was the bench boss… well, actually, that’s true now too… but there were six bench bosses for Buffalo between Ruff’s tenure with the team that ended during the 2012-13 campaign and his current assignment with the team.

The Sabres’ playoff appearance drought is the longest in NHL history. That’s got to way on the team, and you have to wonder if it will eventually lead to talented players getting frustrated in Buffalo as it has for others in the past. Still, it’s not as if this is a doomed team.

As stated at the top, there are positives to be found in this roster, and the place we’re judging the Sabres from now might be at or near their low point. There’s still season enough for them to turn this thing around. If they don’t, there is still hope for the future with this young group…even if that promise feels a little hollow after so many other failed rebuild attempts.

Calgary Flames (Tue vs. BOS, Thu vs. OTT, Sat vs. CHI)

The Flames have just three games scheduled for next week, but all those contests are at home, and it’s a pretty favorable schedule. Boston, which the Flames will host Tuesday, did have a 7-2-0 stretch from Nov. 21-Dec. 7, but the Bruins’ have fallen back after big losses to Winnipeg and Seattle over their past two games. After facing the Bruins, Calgary will host Ottawa and Chicago on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. Neither of those adversaries are in a playoff position.

Jonathan Huberdeau’s eight-year, $84 million contract is looking like it might go down as one of the worst contracts in recent memory, but he’s at least hot at the moment, providing four goals and nine points across his past six appearances. Will he keep that up? It’s possible, but it’s hard to get too excited. His 11 goals and 21 points through 30 outings overall still puts him on pace to get 57 points, which isn’t bad, but it’s well below the type of numbers he put up in Florida. Additionally, he has a 21.6 shooting percentage compared to his career average of 12.5, so if anything, Huberdeau’s benefited from some good puck luck and is more likely to slow as the campaign progresses than maintain that overall scoring pace.

If Huberdeau has potentially overperformed, would Andrei Kuzmenko be at the other end of the spectrum? No one expects him to repeat his 39-goal, 74-point performance from 2022-23, but is his goal and 10 points through 28 outings in 2024-25 simply the result of bad luck? His 3.3 shooting percentage is unusually low, but I’m more concerned about his decline in shots. He’s averaging just 4.1 shots/60, down from 6.8 last year.

Of his 30 shots this campaign, 19 have been fired from high-danger locations, which does put him ahead of the league average for forwards of 12.8, so that is a little bit of a silver lining. He’s on track for 52 high-danger shots this campaign, which would be down from 60 last year, a drop of 13.3 percent, whereas his overall shot total is on track to finish at 82, compared to 121 in 2023-24, a decline of 32.2 percent. So a deeper dive suggests things might not be quite as bad as they seem -- at least in terms of shot quality -- but it’s still not good, just less bad.

It's fair to believe that Kuzmenko’s shooting percentage will climb as the campaign progresses, but unless he starts getting a bit more aggressive with the puck, I wouldn’t count on him putting up numbers sufficient to give him relevance in the majority of fantasy leagues.

We might see better from Nazem Kadri, though, at least relative to his current point pace. He has 10 goals and 19 points in 30 appearances this campaign, which is a far cry from his 75-point showing in 2023-24. Kadri has been a steady contributor recently, though, supplying five goals and 11 points through his past 13 outings. He’s not a safe bet to reach the 70-point milestone again, but he was getting significantly fewer assists than is normal early in the campaign, and that seems to be balancing out and is likely to continue to do so. There’s a good chance he’ll finish the season as Calgary’s scoring leader.

Colorado Avalanche (Mon @ VAN, Thu @ SJS, FRI @ ANA, Sun vs. SEA)

The Avalanche will start next week on the road, playing in Vancouver on Monday, San Jose on Thursday and Anaheim on Friday. Colorado will then conclude the week by hosting the Kraken.

Colorado acquired Mackenzie Blackwood along with Givani Smith and a 2027 fifth-round pick from San Jose in exchange for Alexandar Georgiev, Nikolai Kovalenko, a 2025 fifth-round pick and a 2026 second-round selection.

With Blackwood on side, the Avalanche have now completely changed their goaltending tandem. They started with Georgiev and Justus Annunen, and now have Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood. The 32-year-old Wedgewood started the campaign with Nashville, posting a 1-2-1 record, 3.69 GAA and .878 save percentage through five appearances, but he’s done far better since joining the Avalanche, going 3-2-0 with a 1.92 GAA and a .931 save percentage across five outings. Of course, that’s a small sample size, and Wedgewood typically hasn’t been more than an acceptable backup goaltender, so Blackwood will be needed too.

For his part, Blackwood had a 6-9-3 record, 3.00 GAA and .909 save percentage in 19 appearances with the Sharks before the trade. He has a plus-3.9 goals saved above expected this campaign, per Moneypuck, so he’s been solid when factoring out the Sharks’ defense. Speaking of that defense, San Jose ranks 29th in xGA/60 (3.36) while Colorado is 13th (2.95). That should lead to Blackwood putting up meaningfully better numbers post-trade, and naturally, his winning percentage should improve too now that he has the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and defenseman Cale Makar providing him with goal support.

Having Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen naturally helps too. That duo wasn’t available at the start of the campaign, but they’re in the lineup now, providing some critical secondary scoring. Nichushkin and Lehkonen have each supplied four goals through six games in December. They won’t match MacKinnon and Rantanen in terms of points, but they’re fantastic for Colorado to have on the top six.

Edmonton Oilers (Mon vs. FLA, Thu vs. BOS, Sat vs. SJS, Sun vs. OTT)

The Oilers will be at home next week, hosting the Panthers on Monday, the Bruins on Thursday, the Sharks on Saturday and the Senators on Sunday. Edmonton has been fantastic recently, winning seven of its past eight games to improve to 17-10-2 on the campaign, so the Oilers will be looking to stay hot.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have unsurprisingly been a major factor in Edmonton’s recent success, providing 15 points (five goals) and 14 points (six), respectively, over their past eight games. Vasily Podkolzin (three goals, five points) and Connor Brown (one goal, five points) have been less expected contributors. Podkolzin has benefited from playing in a top-six role, but he still might lose that job once Viktor Arvidsson (undisclosed) is available. It would be a little surprising if Arvidsson, who has been out since Nov. 12, returned next week, but he has resumed skating and might attend a team practice soon.

As for Brown, while there was some hope of him playing alongside his old OHL teammate, McDavid, when he first joined the Oilers, that’s never panned out. The 30-year-old has been playing strictly in a bottom-six capacity and has received almost no power-play time this campaign, so while his four goals and 10 points through 29 appearances aren’t bad under the circumstances, Brown isn’t in a position to increase that scoring pace.

In goal, Stuart Skinner has stabilized after a rough start to the campaign, posting a 4-1-0 record, 1.41 GAA and .947 save percentage across his past five starts. He had a similar track in 2023-24 with a rocky opening to the season followed by mostly strong play beyond that, so perhaps history is repeating.

Florida Panthers (Mon @ EDM, Wed @ MIN, Fri vs. STL, Sun vs. TBL)

Florida will open next week with road games against Edmonton and Minnesota on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. The Panthers will then host the Blues on Friday and play in Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Matthew Tkachuk was one of the hottest forwards in the league from Nov. 19-Dec. 7, supplying six goals and 19 points across 10 appearances. However, he’s been held off the scoresheet in each of his last two outings, so while he’s a fantastic forward regardless, his latest hot streak might be over.

To be fair, though, Florida as a squad has managed just one goal (excluding the shootout) over its past two games, so it’s not just Tkachuk who has cooled off. That’s just a mini-slump on the Panthers’ end, but Anton Lundell has been cold for longer. He hasn’t recorded a point across his past five appearances, leaving him at eight goals and 19 points through 29 outings in 2024-25.

Most of Lundell’s success came from an amazing start to the campaign in which he recorded six goals and 14 points in 14 appearances, but he was also averaging 18:49 of ice time. By contrast, he’s dropped to two goals and five points over his past 15 games and his average during that stretch is 15:39. The 23-year-old is capable, but when everyone is healthy, he typically serves on the third line, which limits his fantasy impact. If injuries result in him moving up to the top six, then he could be a great short-term play.

Los Angeles Kings (Tue @ PIT, Thu @ PHI, Sat @ NSH, Sun @ WSH)

The Kings have a full schedule with four games on the docket next week and just one of their upcoming opponents (the Capitals) occupy a playoff spot. The downside is the Kings will be on the road for the entire week. They’ll play in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, Philadelphia on Thursday, Nashville on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.

When looking at the Kings’ campaign thus far, the player who has most impressed me is Anze Kopitar with his eight goals and 32 points through 29 appearances. We’re currently in a time where several forwards have excelled well past their prime -- Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby being the most obvious examples -- so Kopitar’s longevity has flown under the radar somewhat. The fact that he remains an effective playmaker at the age of 37, is still impressive, though. It wouldn’t be surprising at this point to see him reach the 70-point mark for the 10th time in his career.

Alex Laferriere was nearing his sixth birthday when Kopitar made his NHL debut, but the two are in their second campaign together and the sophomore Laferriere has been coming into his own with 12 goals and 22 points in 29 contests this season. Laferriere has continued to be a steady contributor lately, collecting three goals and seven points across his past seven games.

However, I am a little worried about Laferriere’s 20.0 shooting percentage. That seems rather high and his PDO of 1033 is a touch up there too, which suggests he has been getting a bit of puck luck. I don’t expect a crash, but his goal-scoring pace will likely decline somewhat.

Adrian Kempe’s shooting percentage of 17.9 is on the higher side too. Kempe did have a 16.4 shooting percentage in 2022-23 when he finished with 41 markers, so he’s not too far above his career high, but it’s still a notable step above his career average of 12.7. Like Laferriere, I don’t expect Kempe to collapse, but a small decline might be in his future. Kempe does have 14 goals and 28 points in 29 outings overall.

New Jersey Devils (Tue @ STL, Thu @ CBJ, Sat vs. PIT)

The Devils are set to play just three games next week, but the competition is favorable, so I decided to highlight them. New Jersey will play in St. Louis on Tuesday and Columbus on Thursday before hosting the Penguins on Saturday.

The Devils have a commanding 19-10-3 record compared to their mediocre 38-39-5 finish to 2023-24 and the difference is almost entirely at their end of the ice. New Jersey is allowing just 2.66 goals per game, which is a huge drop from 3.43 last year. But how much of that is thanks to Jacob Markstrom?

The Devils had an xGA/60 of 3.26 last campaign, which suggests that they were a poor defensive team independent of their goaltending. Kaapo Kahkonen and Jake Allen largely held their own with a plus-1.4 and minus-1.9 goals saved above expected, but when the defense is that bad, merely being okay leads to bad results. The Devils also employed Nico Daws, Akira Schmid and Vitek Vanecek, who did even worse by that metric.

Markstrom was brought in over the summer to stabilize the situation, but much like Kahkonen before him, he’s been acceptable, but not brilliant, posting a plus-1.5 goals saved above expected through 22 appearances. The difference is the Devils have burdened their goaltenders far less in 2024-25, as evidenced by their 2.70 xGA/60.

So, while Markstrom certainly hasn’t been a problem, he hasn’t necessarily been their savior. Either way, fantasy managers have can reap the benefits of Markstrom playing in a favorable situation, which has resulted in him posting a 14-6-2 record, 2.41 GAA and .906 save percentage. He’s also hot going into this week with a 3-0-1 record, 1.48 GAA and .933 save percentage over his past four outings.

Allen has been dealing with an upper-body injury, and the Devils’ schedule is spread out enough to allow Markstrom to start in all three games next week. Isaac Poulter will be with New Jersey for the duration of Allen’s injury, but Poulter is unlikely to get a start. The 23-year-old Poulter has struggled in the AHL this campaign with a 3.32 GAA and an .871 save percentage across nine appearances.

Poulter not getting playing time isn’t surprising, but it was a bit eyebrow-raising to see Tomas Tatar out of the lineup Thursday. Perhaps it shouldn’t be, though. Tatar has averaged just 10:41 of ice time this campaign, which is a far cry from even two seasons ago when he logged 15:07 per game. The Devils are a deep team, and it seems like there’s not much of a role for him. I’d be interested to see what would happen if the Devils traded the 34-year-old. He’s on a one-year, $1.8 million contract, so he’s movable, but New Jersey might ultimately decide that they’d rather have him on board as an insurance policy against injuries. If Tatar does find himself in a middle-six role, he might do enough offensively to have some fantasy relevance. As it is, he’s a non-factor in most leagues.

Seattle Kraken (Tue vs. OTT, Thu @ CHI, Sat @ VGK, Sun @ COL)

Seattle will host Ottawa on Tuesday, but the Kraken will spend the remainder of next week on the road, playing in Chicago on Thursday, Vegas on Saturday and Colorado on Sunday.

The Kraken have largely held their own this campaign without being anything special, posting a 15-14-2 record. Joey Daccord has been a major highlight with a 12-6-2 record, 2.42 GAA and .916 save percentage through 20 appearances. We just talked about how Markstrom is benefiting from plenty of support, but Daccord has had to do much more to keep the Kraken afloat. They are tied for 24th in xGA/60 (3.14) and are tied for 16th in goals per game (3.03). For his part, Daccord’s plus-9.2 in goals saved above expected ranks seventh in the league.

Seattle’s offense is mediocre in part because it lacks star power. Through Friday’s action, 48 players have scored at least 12 goals and none of them play for the Kraken. Seattle’s points leader, Jared McCann, (11 goals, 15 assists), is also outside of the top 47 in that category. The Kraken have nine players who have recorded at least five goals, which is respectable -- the league average is 7.7 per team -- but without a star leading the charge, the offense is still just okay.

Maybe Shane Wright will eventually fill that role. Taken with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, Wright had just a goal and an assist through his first 18 appearances in 2024-25. Then he spent three games as a healthy scratch from Nov. 17-23, and that seemed to do him plenty of good. He’s managed six goals and 11 points across 10 outings since that stint in the press box.

The 22-year-old Matty Beniers has promise too. He had 24 goals and 57 points as a rookie in 2022-23 but took a step back in 2023-24 with 15 goals and 37 points. The 2024-25 campaign has been a mixed bag -- he has four goals and 17 points in 31 games -- but he’s done well recently with seven assists across his past seven appearances.

Vancouver Canucks (Mon @ COL, Wed @ UTA, Thu @ VGK, Say vs. OTT)

The Canucks will split next week between two games at home (Monday vs. the Avalanche and Saturday vs. the Senators) and two road tilts (Wednesday in Utah and Thursday in Vegas). The Canucks are 15-8-5, which is pretty good, but in a tough Pacific Division, that’s only good for fourth place.

Going into the campaign, it wasn’t clear if Vancouver would be able to hold its own without starting goaltender Thatcher Demko, who was dealing with a knee injury. Fortunately for the Canucks, Kevin Lankinen stepped up and now has a 14-4-3 record, 2.52 GAA and .912 save percentage across 21 outings.

Lankinen became the clear starter during Demko’s absence, but his role is less clear after Demko made his return. The 29-year-old Demko made his season debut Tuesday, though he left something to be desired, stopping 21 of 25 shots en route to a 4-3 overtime loss to St. Louis. That was followed by Lankinen posting a 27-save shutout Thursday.

We shouldn’t judge Demko based on only one start, but it might take him some time to shake off the rust. With Vancouver’s upcoming schedule relatively full, the Canucks will probably split the workload between Lankinen and Demko, which will give the latter more time to get eased in. If Lankinen keeps playing like he has been, and Demko eventually finds his rhythm, then Vancouver would have a great 1A/1B situation on its hands.

The Canucks also got J.T. Miller back, who was absent for 10 games due to personal reasons. He looked good in his return Thursday, providing two assists, including one on the power play. Now that he’s back, Pius Suter is likely to serve in a reduced capacity. During Miller’s 10-game absence, Suter had five goals and nine points while averaging 18:14 of ice time, but Suter dropped to 15:15 on Thursday and wasn’t used at all with the man advantage for the first time since Nov. 14. If you’ve been enjoying Suter’s recent success, now might be the time to explore your alternatives.

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Washington powers on with Ovechkin, Chicago looks for change – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 07 Dec 2024 16:07:18 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - NOVEMBER 30: Washington Capitals defenseman Jakob Chychrun (6) scores a goal during a NHL game between the Washington Capitals and New Jersey Devils at Prudential Center on November 30, 2024 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Washington had an incredible 13-4-1 record through Nov. 18 thanks in large part to its league-leading 4.33 goals per game. However, that offensive success was built around Alex Ovechkin, who had 15 goals and 25 points through 18 appearances, so when he suffered a fractured left fibula, it was reasonable to wonder how much his absence would impact the Capitals. Going into Friday’s action, Washington seemed to largely be managing the injury well, posting a 4-2-1 record in its first seven games without Ovechkin.

The Capitals offense has certainly taken a hit, but they’ve still managed an impressive 3.43 goals per game since Ovechkin was sidelined. Tom Wilson (three goals, six points), Dylan Strome (two goals, six points) and Connor McMichael (two goals, five points) have been of particular importance over that seven-game stretch.

However, none of those forwards are actually the Capitals’ scoring leader over the stretch without Ovechkin. That honor belongs to Jakob Chychrun, who has three goals and seven points across his past seven outings. Chychrun, who was acquired from Ottawa over the summer, has been a fantastic addition, collecting eight goals and 15 points through 20 appearances. Keep in mind, though, that his 19.0 shooting percentage is far ahead of his career average of 7.2, so we’ll probably eventually see a drop off.

Still, this stretch has shown that Washington is a team with some decent depth and might prove to be a serious contender come playoff time.

One team that almost certainly won’t be playing come the postseason is Chicago. There’s still plenty of hockey left, of course, but with an 8-16-2 record, the Blackhawks seem set to miss the playoffs for the fifth straight year.

Connor Bedard has been fine with five goals and 19 points in 26 outings, but for a player who has as much promise as him, even more is hoped for. Still, it would help if he had more support. Ryan Donato is the only other Chicago player with at least 15 points (10 goals, five assists). To put that into context, 160 players at reached the 15-point mark through Thursday’s action, so an average team should have five players who have reached that milestone.

Goaltender Petr Mrazek has been alright, but he’s not getting much support on offense or defense, which has left him with a 7-11-1 record, 2.86 GAA and .905 save percentage across 19 outings. Chicago fired head coach Luke Richardson after Chicago suffered its fourth straight loss Wednesday and appointed Anders Sorensen as the interim bench boss. Richardson finished his Blackhawks tenure with a 57-118-15 record, so by that measure his departure isn’t surprising, but given that Chicago has been in the midst of a rebuild, it’s hard to be too critical of him.

Still, perhaps Sorensen, who spent the previous seven campaigns coaching for AHL Rockford, including three years as the head coach going into 2024-25, can help accelerate the rebuild somewhat by guiding the team’s young players. He already has familiarity with many of the club’s prospects thanks to his previous role. A fresh perspective might also be good for Bedard, who is naturally critical to Chicago’s long-term goals.

It will be a while before we know if the change to Sorensen was the right move, and success, at least in the short term, won’t necessarily be measured in wins and losses, but the Blackhawks will be an interesting team to monitor.

Buffalo Sabres (Mon vs DET, Wed vs NYR, Sat @ WAS, Sun @ TOR)

The Sabres have hit a rough patch, dropping their last five games to fall to 11-12-3 on the campaign. To be fair, most of those games were against tough opponents (Minnesota, Vancouver, Colorado and Winnipeg handed out four of the five defeats), but Buffalo has more difficult matchups on the horizon. The Sabres will host the Red Wings and the Rangers on Monday and Wednesday, respectively, before taking to the road to face Washington on Saturday and Toronto on Sunday.

Rasmus Dahlin left Tuesday’s 5-4 loss to Colorado because of back spasms and missed Thursday’s 3-2 overtime defeat to the Jets because of the issue. Coach Lindy Ruff described the situation like this via Buffalo’s Twitter account, “It should be short-term, but you never know.” In other words, Dahlin might be fine to play in all four of next week’s games.

He’s a vital part of the Sabres’ blue line, so no one defenseman can fill in for him when he’s not available. That said, Henri Jokiharju should see an increase in even-strength ice time -- Jokiharju logged 20:23 of ice time Thursday, his most since Oct. 16 -- and Owen Power should serve on the first power play unit for however long Dahlin’s out.

Jokiharju doesn’t have much fantasy value regardless, but Power has three goals and 15 points in 26 appearances in 2024-25 despite recording no points with the man advantage, so if he’s given an opportunity to play on the top power-play unit for any extended stretch, that’d be rather interesting.

Regardless of which defensemen dress, Buffalo needs them to help make life easier on the goaltenders. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen could certainly have done more recently -- he posted a record of 0-2-2 with a 3.20 GAA and an .895 save percentage across his past four starts -- but he also faced at least 30 shots in three of those four games, including 41 shots in Tuesday’s tilt.

James Reimer has been used sparingly, posting a 1-1-0 record, 2.05 GAA and .923 save percentage in two starts since being claimed by Buffalo off waivers Nov. 13, but the Sabres’ busy schedule means that he should play in at least one game next week.

Carolina Hurricanes ( Tue vs SJS, Fri vs OTT, Sun vs CBJ)

The Hurricanes are playing in just three games next week, but I still wanted to feature them because those matchups are favorable. All three of the matches will be in Carolina. The Hurricanes will host San Jose on Tuesday, Ottawa on Friday and Columbus on Sunday.

None of those opponents are good defensively -- Ottawa ranks 25th in goals allowed per game (3.20), which is the best of the three -- so this should be a good stretch for the Blue Jackets’ scorers. Perhaps Martin Necas can build some breathing room in the Art Ross Trophy fight. At the time of writing, he’s in first place with 41 points (14 goals), narrowly edging out Nathan MacKinnon (40 points), Kirill Kaprizov (39), Jack Eichel (38) and Sam Reinhart (37).

Necas was held off the scoresheet in back-to-back games from Nov. 29-30 for the first time this season, but he’s responded by scoring two goals and four points across his past two outings.

One lower profile Hurricanes who’s hot is Eric Robinson. The 29-year-old has never recorded more than 27 points in a single season, but he’s well on his way to shattering that record after recording eight goals and 17 points across 26 appearances. Exercise some caution here: His shooting percentage is an unreasonably high 25.0, and he’s still averaging just 12:15 of ice time with no power-play role, so it’s hard to imagine him keeping up this pace. Still, he’s hot at the moment with three goals and four points across his past five appearances, and when coupled with the Blue Jackets’ upcoming scheduled, there’s reason to hope that the good times aren’t over yet.

We should also see continued production out of defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere. He’s fitting in nicely with Carolina, scoring five goals and 21 points in 26 outings, including a goal and seven points over his past six games. Gostisbehere’s success is largely tethered to the power play, which accounts for 15 of his points.

His presence has corresponded with Brent Burns shifting to the second power-play unit this year, which has led to Burns recording no points with the man advantage so far in 2024-25. Burns has a goal and seven points in 26 outings overall, which puts him on track to finish below the 40-point mark for just the second time in 12 seasons (the last time was the shortened 2020-21 campaign).

Columbus Blue Jackets (Tue vs PHI, Thu vs WAS, Sat vs ANA, Sun @ CAR)

The Blue Jackets are 11-11-3, which isn’t great, but they have done better than many projected going into the campaign. Columbus will see if it can maintain that level next week when it hosts Philadelphia, Washington and Anaheim on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, respectively. The Blue Jackets will then travel to Carolina for a game Sunday.

Kirill Marchenko has played a big role in Columbus’ better than expected results. The 24-year-old has 10 goals and 24 points in 25 games this season, putting him well on his way to shattering his mark of 42 points in 2023-24. You’ll usually see him sharing the ice with Sean Monahan, who has fit in nicely with Columbus, providing eight goals and 22 points through 25 appearances.

For the last few weeks, Dmitri Voronkov has typically been the third member of that line. He missed the start of the campaign with an upper-body injury and registered just one point (a goal) across his first six games of 2024-25, but the 24-year-old sophomore has hit his stride, supplying five goals and 10 points over his past 10 outings. He’s still on just 17 percent of Yahoo rosters, so he might be a nice pickup if he’s still available in your league.

On the blue line, Zach Werenski has been a standout performer for the Blue Jackets with eight goals and 27 points through 25 appearances. He’s one of the hottest defensemen in the entire league, recording five goals and 17 points across his past 10 outings.

Minnesota Wild (Tue vs UTA, Thu vs EDM, Sat vs PHI, Sun vs VGK)

The Wild have won their past four games to improve to 17-4-4. Minnesota will try to keep the good times rolling next week, which will begin with a road game against Utah on Tuesday. After that match, Minnesota will spend the rest of the week at home, playing against Edmonton, Philadelphia and Vegas on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Joel Eriksson Ek sustained an injury Tuesday and is week-to-week, and there’s no indication that Mats Zuccarello is close to returning from the lower-body issue that’s kept him out of the lineup since Nov. 14.

If Zuccarello were healthy, he’d almost certainly be playing alongside Kirill Kaprizov and Marco Rossi. His absence led to the lines being shaken up, and Eriksson Ek did skate on the top line with Kaprizov on Tuesday before he got hurt. With Zuccarello and Eriksson Ek both out, Matt Boldy will likely play regularly alongside Kaprizov and Rossi. Boldy has 11 goals and 24 points in 25 appearances, so that’s a strong trio. The forward corps after that, though, looks thin due to the injuries.

Marcus Johansson, Ryan Hartman and Marcus Foligno currently comprise the second line, but none of them have even reached double digits in points. The third unit is Devin Shore, Frederick Gaudreau and Yakov Trenin, which has a combined 15 points this season -- 14 of them from Gaudreau.

Fortunately for the Wild, Filip Gustavsson hasn’t needed much offensive help this year. He’s 12-4-3 with a 2.04 GAA and a .929 save percentage in 19 appearances.

New York Islanders (Tue vs LAK, Thu vs CHI, Sun @ CHI)

The Islanders have three games on the schedule, but two of them are against the lowly Blackhawks -- New York will host them Thursday and play in Chicago on Sunday -- so the Islanders are in a good position there. New York will also host the Kings on Tuesday.

We just discussed how Minnesota’s offense looks thin due to injuries, and the Islanders are in a similar boat without Anthony Duclair (lower body) and Mathew Barzal (upper body), who have logged just five and 10 games, respective. Due to their absences, the Islanders have just two players with at least 20 points, and even then, just barely -- Anders Lee has 21 while Kyle Palmieri has 20. The result is no Islanders player is within the top 50 of the Art Ross Trophy race.

Andrew Gross of Newsday reported Friday that Duclair and Barzal are skating on their own, which is better than not skating at all, but there are several steps between that and playing, so I wouldn’t count on them returning during the upcoming week.

Lee has been one of the few recent bright spots, providing four goals and eight points across his past six games. He’s on a four-game scoring streak through Thursday’s action. Simon Holmstrom appears to have cooled, though. He had back-to-back multi-goal games from Nov. 29-30, but he hasn’t found the back of the net since. Holmstrom has done fine with seven goals and 15 points in 27 outings, but he’s not worth employing in most fantasy leagues except when he’s hot.

New York Rangers (Mon vs CHI, Wed @ BUF, Sat vs LAK, Sun @ STL)

New York is set to host Chicago on Monday, play in Buffalo on Wednesday, have a home game against the Kings on Saturday and conclude the week by playing in St. Louis on Sunday. Let’s not dwell on the schedule, though, the Rangers had an eventful Friday, and I want to dive right into it.

New York traded Jacob Trouba to Anaheim in exchange for a fourth-round pick and Urho Vaakanainen. Importantly, the Rangers didn’t retain any salary, so Trouba’s $8 million cap hit through 2025-26 is now off their books. New York then signed Igor Shesterkin to an eight-year, $92 million contract that will begin in 2025-26 after his current four-year, $22.67 million deal expires.

Let’s start with the defensive changes. Trouba had a fantastic eight goals and 50 points in 82 games with Winnipeg in 2018-19 and was then dealt to the Rangers in the summer of 2019 in exchange for a 2019 first-round selection (Ville Heinola) and Neal Pionk. The Rangers promptly signed Trouba to his current eight-year, $56 million contract.

Unfortunately for New York, the Rangers inked Trouba at the height of his offensive contributions. Over his five campaigns with the Rangers going into 2024-25, Trouba reached the 30-point mark twice, but never hit 40. To be fair, Trouba is a big body, plays a physical game and blocks a ton of shots, so he brings things to the table outside of offense. He also served as the team captain from 2022 until he was traded, highlighting his importance in the locker room. Still, his cap hit was too high for what he brought.

It's telling that the Rangers got very little in return for him, and even with that, some questioned if they won this trade simply by virtue of clearing that cap space. But what did they receive outside of that draft pick? Vaakanainen was taken with the No. 18 overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, but he never developed as hoped. Instead, he should be regarded as a depth defenseman who will likely bounce between the third pairing and the press box. He is also on the injured reserve list due to an upper-body injury, so it might be a bit before he makes his Rangers debut.

Rather than Vaakanainen playing regularly, we might see the Rangers utilize Victor Mancini more with Trouba out. The 22-year-old Mancini has a goal, four points, seven hits and 12 blocks in 10 appearances with New York in 2024-25, and he’s also provided two goals and five points in six AHL outings. Don’t get too excited over Mancini’s offensive numbers, though. He wasn’t much of a producer in the NCAA, recording just four goals and 10 points across 40 outings with the University of Nebraska-Omaha as a Junior in 2023-24.

As for locking up Shesterkin, the cap hit is substantial, but not surprising. He’s proven himself to be a top-tier goaltender, and we’re in a period where the cap seems to be steadily climbing, so there’s logic behind the number. Shesterkin has struggled recently with a 2-7-0 record, 3.93 GAA and .882 save percentage across nine appearances, but he should rebound.

St. Louis Blues (Tue @ VAN, Thu vs SJS, Sat @ DAL, Sun vs NYR)

St. Louis has won four of its past five games, improving to 13-12-2 this season. That still puts the Blues outside of a playoff spot, but at least they’re trending in the right direction. The Blues will play in Vancouver on Tuesday, host the Sharks on Thursday, visit Dallas on Saturday and play at home Sunday versus the Rangers.

Dylan Holloway has been a major part of the Blues’ recent success, contributing four goals and eight points across his past five outings. That brings him up to eight goals and 16 points in 27 appearances this year, but he’s been inconsistent, so enjoy the good times while they last, but be prepared for the other shoe to eventually drop if you grab the 23-year-old during his hot streak.

Jordan Binnington is another extremely inconsistent play, but he has been more hit than miss lately, providing a 4-2-1 record, 2.10 GAA and .925 save percentage across his past seven appearances. He’s 8-9-2 with a 2.87 GAA and .900 save percentage in 20 outings overall and will probably average out as a low-to-mid tier starter this season.

Robert Thomas might still have a great campaign, though. He did miss 12 games from Oct. 24-Nov. 17 because of a fractured ankle, but with that injury now well behind him, Thomas seems to be heating up, providing three goals and six points across his past four games. This might just be the beginning of a longer hot streak for Thomas, who set a career high in 2023-24 with 86 points.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Tue @ NJD, Thu vs ANA, Sat @ DET, Sun vs BUF)

Toronto is having a fantastic campaign with a 16-7-2 record, and the Maple Leafs have won seven of their past eight games. They’ll look to maintain that momentum next week, starting with a road contest against New Jersey. The Maple Leafs will then host Anaheim on Thursday, play in Detroit on Saturday and return home to play against the Sabres on Sunday.

Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies returned from injury Nov. 30, adding to Toronto’s success. Matthews has been especially good since returning, supplying three goals and five points across three appearances, bringing him up to eight goals and 16 points through 16 outings. Matthews tends to score goals in bunches, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him continue to tickle the twine over the upcoming week.

Max Domi (lower body) and Max Pacioretty (lower body) have also been skating with the Maple Leafs recently, so they might be nearing a return too. Once they do, we might see Nicholas Robertson fall out of the lineup. Robertson has been the main disappointment in what has otherwise been a great campaign for Toronto. He has just two points (both goals) in 22 outings in 2024-25. Robertson did find the back of the net Nov. 30, but he was held off the scoresheet in two games since, so that marker didn’t seem to help spark him.

In net, Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz will probably each start in two games next week. Stolarz is 8-4-2 with a 2.23 GAA and .924 save percentage in 14 outings, while Woll is 7-2-0 with a 2.11 GAA and a .922 save percentage in nine appearances, so the Maple Leafs can happily treat them as a 1A-1B tandem.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Youngsters making the most of their opportunity – McMichael, Clarke and Sillinger

Scott Cullen — Fri, 01 Nov 2024 19:01:22 +0000

Los Angeles Kings Defenceman Brandt Clarke (92)(Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Connor McMichael steps forward in Washington, Brandt Clarke is making the most of his opportunity in Los Angeles, William Karlsson returns to the Vegas lineup, Cole Sillinger is responding on Columbus’ top line, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 It has been a very gradual progression for Washington Capitals 2019 first-round pick Connor McMichael, who had a career-high 33 points (18 G, 15 A) last season. Early in this season, McMichael has taken his game to a new level, though, putting up 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 27 shots on goal in the first 10 games. He does have higher percentages working in his favor, but the increasing shot rate is encouraging, and McMichael is finding his groove on Washington’s second line with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson, in addition to getting second unit power play time.

#2 When Drew Doughty was injured in the preseason, there was some debate over whether Brandt Clarke or Jordan Spence would reap the rewards of extra ice time in Doughty’s absence. There isn’t much debate anymore, as Clarke has produced 11 points (1 G, 10 A) in 11 games, with five of those points coming via the power play. He is only playing a little more than 18 minutes per game, so it’s not like the Kings are force-feeding Clarke minutes, but they are allowing him to play to his considerable puck-moving strengths.

#3 Vegas Golden Knights centre William Karlsson missed the first eight games of the season due to injury but provided an immediate jolt to the lineup upon his return. In his first three games, Karlsson contributed four points (1 G, 3 A) and eight shots on goal, skating on a line with Tanner Pearson and Alexander Holtz. Karlsson does not necessarily get a prime role on the power play and with Tomas Hertl and Jack Eichel also skating at centre for Vegas, there are some limits to what Karlsson can do at even strength, but he had 30 goals and 60 points in 70 games last season, so it’s fair to expect Wild Bill to fulfill a significant offensive role.

#4 While there have been ups and downs in the career of Cole Sillinger, the 12th pick in the 2021 Draft by the Columbus Blue Jackets, he is making the most of the opportunity he is getting in Columbus this season. Sillinger is skating on Columbus’ top line with Sean Monahan and Kirill Marchenko, contributing eight points (2 G, 6 A) with 20 shots on goal in nine games. He is also averaging a career-high 18 minutes of ice time per game, so there is a real chance for Sillinger to play in a scoring role for as long as he continues to produce.

#5 Veteran Dallas Stars forward Tyler Seguin has missed a couple of games with a lower-body injury, but has delivered eight points (4 G, 4 A) in six games. Tread carefully with the 32-year-old, however, as Seguin has managed just eight shots on goal and is only averaging 15:47 of ice time per game, his lowest average since his rookie season in 2010-2011.

#6 A late bloomer who scored a career-best 37 points (14 G, 23 A) as a 30-year-old last season, New Jersey Devils right winger Stefan Noesen has handled a bigger role in his return to New Jersey. Noesen is averaging more than 14 minutes per game for the first time in his NHL career, and he has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) and 20 shots on goal in 13 games. That shot volume is a little concerning and Noesen has been riding favorable percentages, but he has also landed a spot on the Devils’ top power play and four of his 12 points have come via the man advantage, so he offers some deep league appeal.

#7 There may be a ceiling to what Buffalo Sabres defenceman Owen Power can produce offensively, because Rasmus Dahlin is the locked-in quarterback on Buffalo’s top power play unit, but Power is currently riding a five-game point streak during which he has seven even-strength points (1 G, 6 A) and nine shots on goal. The first pick in the 2021 Draft, Power has had a couple of quality seasons, but if he can contribute more offensively, that will both improve the outlook for both him individually and the Sabres as a team.

#8 Coming into the season, 24-year-old Vegas Golden Knights winger Pavel Dorofeyev had contributed 33 points (20 G, 13 A) in 67 career games, which provided a decent indication that he could be a viable option to provide secondary scoring. He has stepped up in his past five games, delivering seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 22 shots on goal. Half of Dorofeyev’s six goals this season have come on the power play, but he has been able to generate offense at five-on-five and that is what gives him a chance to keep earning a bigger role.

#9 When the Anaheim Ducks lost goaltender John Gibson to appendicitis late in the preseason, that thrust goaltender Lukas Dostal into the starter’s role and the 24-year-old netminder has risen to the challenge. In eight starts, Dostal has a .945 save percentage and he already has 14.01 Goals Saved Above Expected, the best mark in the league. With trade rumours swirling around Gibson, Dostal’s play could make it easier for the Ducks to pull the trigger on a deal.

#10 Another late bloomer, 29-year-old Vancouver Canucks winger Kiefer Sherwood had a career-high 27 points (10 G, 17 A) in 68 games, earning a free agent contract with the Canucks. Sherwood has started his Vancouver career with five points (2 G, 3 A) in nine games, but for fantasy managers, it’s the hits that make the difference. Sherwood has an astonishing 64 hits in nine games, which would prorate to 583 hits over a full season, an absurd number. Sherwood has enjoyed success skating on a line with Danton Heinen and Teddy Blueger and looks like he is well on his way to the best season of his career.

#11 A few weeks ago, Colorado Avalanche forward Ross Colton was a top-tier pickup after moving to left wing on the top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Then he managed to survive potential injury at Utah only to suffer a broken foot two games later against Chicago. This will keep him out for 6-8 weeks. As a result, rookie Nikolai Kovalenko moves up the depth chart to skate on the top line in Colorado. Kovalenko has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 12 shots on goal in 11 games, so it is a big jump to move to that line. He has also hit the net on just 12 of 29 shot attempts, 41.4 percent, compared to Colton, who has 37 shots on goal in 60 shot attempts, 61.7 percent. Maybe playing with the superstars will give Kovalenko better quality chances and he will hit the net more frequently.

#12 Carolina Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen was off to an excellent start this season, posting a .941 save percentage in four starts, but he is hurt now, considered week-to-week with a lower-body injury. That should mean more consistent starts for Pyotr Kochetkov, the 25-year-old netminder who has won four of five starts, but has a .891 save percentage.

#13 Although he had a rough game against Toronto in Winnipeg’s only loss this season, on the ice for all six Maple Leafs goals, Jets defenseman Neal Pionk is otherwise off to an outstanding start this season, producing 12 points (3 G, 9 A) with 25 shots on goal in 10 games. Pionk also has 16 blocked shots and 13 hits, so he is filling categories across the board, making him more valuable than ever.

#14 It was a surprise that the San Jose Sharks landed defenseman Jake Walman from the Detroit Red Wings in the offseason, but it has provided him a bigger opportunity and he has responded with more production. Walman is playing 22:53 per game, up more than three minutes per game from last season, and he has contributed nine points (1 G, 8 A) and 32 shots on goal in a dozen games. He moves the puck in the right direction when he is on the ice, which is not commonplace among the Sharks, and he is getting first unit power play time, though he has just one power play point.

#15 Second-year New York Rangers left winger Will Cuylle showed some promise as a rookie, particularly with his tendency to hit and hit a lot, but he is bringing enough offense early in the season to make himself fantasy relevant. Cuylle has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 18 shots on goal in nine games, but he also has 39 hits. Playing on a thriving third line with Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko, as well as delivering more than four hits per game makes Cuylle more appealing in most leagues, but especially in banger leagues in which those hits are rewarded.

#16 San Jose Sharks right winger Fabian Zetterlund broke through last season with career highs of 24 goals and 44 points, taking advantage of the bigger role afforded to him after he had been acquired from New Jersey. Even with his ice time down a couple of minutes per game, Zetterlund is off to a strong start with eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 28 shots on goal in 12 games. He is thriving in a complementary role, skating on a line with Alex Wennberg and rookie Danil Guschin, in addition to getting second unit power play time.

#17 When Thatcher Demko was deemed not to be ready to start the season in net for the Vancouver Canucks, they signed Kevin Lankinen to give them a steady veteran to play alongside rookie Arturs Silovs. Lankinen has excelled in the role, earning six starts, and has a .920 save percentage, making him the better option between the pipes for Vancouver. Presumably, Demko should return to action at some point this season but, in the meantime, Lankinen is a viable option. He has never started more than the 37 games that he started as a rookie, but Lankinen has been an above-average backup for the past couple of seasons and has probably reached the point at which he is capable of handling more responsibility than he had previously. At least in the short term, it makes him a valuable addition for the Canucks.

#18 He has been held off the scoresheet for three straight games, but Washington Capitals centre Pierre-Luc Dubois might be worth considering as a buy-low option. He has five points (1 G, 4 A) in nine games, with just one goal on 19 shots on goal. He has never scored on less than 11.0 percent of his shots on goal, so it would be highly unlikely that Dubois continues to linger around 5.3 percent, where he currently sits. After a disastrous 2023-2024 season in Los Angeles, Dubois’ value is relatively low and his lack of goal production early in this season only deepens that perception, but that is why he could very well provide value as an addition from the fantasy waiver wire.

#19 When seeking out potential buy-low options, one place to look is for players who are underperforming their rate of individual expected goals. Expected goals try to incorporate some measure of shot quality, so that we have some idea about the quality of chances that they are receiving. The forwards whose expected goals are exceeding their actual goal production include Zach Hyman (-4.79), Dubois (-3.79), Dylan Cozens (-3.46), Steven Stamkos (-3.45), Michael Bunting (-3.42), Cutter Gauthier (-3.14), William Eklund (-2.99), Morgan Frost (-2.98), Brad Marchand (-2.95), and Auston Matthews (-2.89). Some of these players are off to very slow starts, but they are clearly generating scoring chances, so all hope is not lost.

#20 At the other end of the spectrum are players that are exceeding their expected goals. Great finishers will typically score more than the average player given the same number and quality of chances, but these players also need to be monitored as they might be beneficiaries of unsustainably good luck early in the season. The forwards that have most exceeded their expected goals this season include Cole Caufield (+5.65), Kyle Connor (+5.63), Leon Draisaitl (+4.59), Nikita Kucherov (+4.33), Tage Thompson (+4.06), Sam Bennett (+4.06), Sam Reinhart (+3.67), Claude Giroux (+3.53), Ryan Donato (+3.53), and Ivan Barbashev (+3.26).

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – BUFFALO SABRES – Team Preview

Sun, 22 Sep 2024 16:00:02 +0000

_{MONTREAL, QC - FEBRUARY 21: Look on Buffalo Sabres center Tage Thompson (72) during the Buffalo Sabres versus the Montreal Canadiens game on February 21, 2024, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)}

Although all eyes were on young goaltender Devon Levi, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen proved to be the star of the 2023-24 Sabres, posting a 27-22-4 record, 2.57 GAA and .910 save percentage across 54 contests. However, his strong netminding was undermined by forwards Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch, Dylan Cozens, and Casey Mittelstadt all seeing meaningful declines in offensive production when compared to a season prior. The end result was that Buffalo finished 39-37-6 and missed the playoffs for a 13th consecutive year.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Since the Sabres replaced Lindy Ruff as the head coach, they have cycled through six bench bosses and none of them could lead Buffalo to the postseason, so Buffalo went back to the last thing that worked by rehiring the now 64-year-old Ruff. Outside of the coaching change, Buffalo bought out Skinner and let Victor Olofsson walk as an unrestricted free agent. Meanwhile, they brought in Ryan McLeod in a trade with Edmonton, who might play on the third line alongside Jason Zucker, who was inked to a one-year contract.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? The Sabres have endured the longest stretch between playoff berths in NHL history, but that might come to an end this season. Luukkonen was great last year, and at the age of 25, seems well positioned to be a high-end starter for years to come. Combine that with Levi’s high-end potential, and Buffalo’s goaltending is looking good. What Buffalo needs is for its forward corps to recapture some of the magic it had in 2022-23. If that happens, then the Sabres will be a great, well-rounded squad.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Of course, Luukkonen has just 100 career NHL games under his belt, and he wasn’t that effective in 2022-23, so there’s no guarantee he won’t regress, and for all Levi’s potential, he’s completely unproven. Buffalo did try to hedge its bet by inking free agent James Reimer, but he’s 35 now and probably won’t be able to save the Sabres if their young goaltenders struggle. On top of that, playing in the Atlantic Division will do Buffalo no favors. Sure, the Sabres have promise, but Ottawa and Detroit improved over the summer while Montreal’s rebuild is making progress. Throw Florida, Boston, Toronto, and Tampa Bay into that mix, and even a Buffalo team that plays capably might still miss the playoffs.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: After buying out Skinner, there’s a path for Zach Benson to play a bigger role this campaign, and the 19-year-old might take advantage. He had a serviceable 2023-24 campaign with 11 goals and 30 points across 71 contests while averaging 14:31 of ice time and has the potential to do so much better. Also keep an eye on Jack Quinn, who was limited to 27 games last year, but looked good when he was healthy with nine goals and 19 points. Now with 104 NHL contests under his belt, it’ll be interesting to see what he could do if he stays healthy this year.

FORWARD

Tage Thompson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	39	45	84	1.05

Thompson’s 2023-2024 season, like that of the whole of the Buffalo Sabres, was a frustrating one. Although he finished the season leading the team with 29 goals, he missed 11 games and dealt with an injury to his wrist that affected his shooting. His power play production dropped from 20 goals in 2022-2023 to nine as Buffalo’s power play fell apart. Showcasing how well Thompson performed despite the injury helped highlight the opportunities that have slipped through the Sabres hands the past two seasons. That he wanted to hurry back into the lineup after the injury to help his team that struggled with consistency makes sense. He’s become a leader in the room and is deeply motivated to help end their playoff drought. But playing through an issue that clearly hindered his greatest weapon, his shot, only proved to add to the frustration the team sorted through. Thompson showed late in the season that when he is healthy, he’s as dangerous a scorer as there can be in the NHL. His creativeness with the puck, his size, his hands and his shot make him extremely difficult to defend. Giving him space lets him get clear to fire away but pressing him can lead to being put on his highlight reel when he toe-drags or nutmegs the defender. Good health and a more direct power play scheme along with Lindy Ruff’s style of play could lead Thompson to a monster season.

Dylan Cozens

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	22	32	54	0.66

Two seasons ago, Dylan Cozens appeared to have arrived in a big way as an offensive star in Buffalo. His 31 goals in 2022-2023 firmly put him in place behind Tage Thompson as Buffalo’s No. 2 center and set the stage for the Sabres to have a dangerous one-two punch on their top two lines. But 2023-2024 proved to mimic Cozens’s 2021-2022 season a bit too closely. He posted 18 goals with 29 assists last season, a mark that put him fifth on the team in scoring. He struggled with his consistency on offence and battled with his own confidence in his shot as his task load increased throughout the year. Following the trade of Casey Mittelstadt, Cozens become the de facto faceoff man and ultimately one of their most important players on the penalty kill. But Cozens struggled to win draws (45.5 percent on the year) although Buffalo’s penalty killing greatly improved going from 77 percent in 2022-2023 to 82.7 percent last season, tied for 12th best in the NHL. Although the strong defensive work is certainly encouraging, it’s offence Cozens wants to help with even more and the Sabres will need it following the buyout of Jeff Skinner. Should he use his solid performance at World Championships (nine goals, two assists in 10 games) to spark him like it did in 2022-2023, it’ll be a big bounce back season for him.

Alex Tuch

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	27	44	71	0.91

On paper, Alex Tuch had a strong season in 2023-2024. He tied with Rasmus Dahlin for the team lead in scoring with 59 points and his 22 goals were fourth most on the team. Being a team leader is a good thing, normally, except when things go poorly, which they did for Buffalo. Tuch battled all season riding the waves of inconsistency with the rest of his teammates, but when on top of his game, he showed why he’s a premier power forward. His ability around the net to score on rebounds is excellent and he again showed that he’s got a dynamite shot from the slot or on the rush off the wing. A player with his size (6-foot-4, 215 pounds) can be a game-changer and, like many of his Sabres teammates, there were quite a few ups and downs throughout the year. Tuch’s body of work through his career shows how dynamic he can be and since coming to Buffalo from Vegas, we’ve been able to see why he’s such a valued player. Last season marked the third time he scored 20-or-more goals, but the drop from 36 to 22 was substantial. As much as Buffalo wanted to recreate that success, something was off in how Tuch, Thompson and Skinner (and later JJ Peterka) were able to play together. This season, Tuch’s childhood dream of playing for Lindy Ruff will come true and he’ll be a vital player in the Sabres’ success.

JJ Peterka

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	32	26	58	0.71

The big question last offseason was who among JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn would have a big breakout season in 2023-2024. When Quinn sustained an Achilles tendon injury in the summer, all eyes were on Peterka to see if he would take the next step into becoming one of the top scorers on the Sabres and he lived up to the expectations. Peterka set career highs in goals (28) and points (50) and became a first line player alongside Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, supplanting Jeff Skinner in the process. Peterka used his speed, shot, and creativity with the puck to generate scoring opportunities and did the bulk of his damage at even strength with 25 of his 28 goals coming then. At 22-years old, Peterka taking a step forward like this came at the best time for the Sabres and you could postulate that his rise (as well as the arrival of Zach Benson) helped general manager Kevyn Adams decide to buy out Skinner this summer. Peterka’s skill set was made to flourish with such offensively capable teammates and although Buffalo didn’t play with quite the same speed and attack mentality last season, he was still able to take off. With a new coach in place, opportunity is there for the taking to have Peterka make another big step forward and his ability to play better two-way hockey will give him the ability to shine even brighter.

Jack Quinn

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	25	24	49	0.64

Hopes last season for Jack Quinn were dashed months before the season even began when he ruptured an Achilles tendon during offseason workouts. That injury put him out of action until a week before Christmas and when he returned, the Sabres were already sagging back in the standings and offensively. While Quinn did his best upon his return to jumpstart the team, bad luck took over for him again in late-January when he sustained a lower-body injury in an awkward board collision that kept him out another two months. When he wasn’t on the shelf, Quinn had nine goals and 10 assists in 27 games, a scoring rate of 0.7 points per game. That kind of production being absent from the Sabres lineup was a harsh blow to take for the team and highlighted how there really wasn’t anyone who stepped up to replace him. A fully healthy offseason for Quinn should allow him to be ready to explode on the scene this season as he’s penciled in to play on a line with Dylan Cozens once again. His ability to score from odd shooting angles with peculiar timing makes him a perplexing player to defend and goaltend against and allows him to be dangerous from anywhere in the zone, particularly in the slot. If he has a fully healthy season, the breakout that was anticipated a year ago may come to fruition.

Zach Benson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	15	23	38	0.49

Zach Benson’s first NHL season was loaded with surprises. When the Sabres selected him 13th overall at the 2023 draft, it was stunning that one of the WHL’s top scorers managed to slip that far down the board and into the hands of a team that already had a cadre of high-end prospects in the first place. It was just as surprising when Benson showed during training camp in September that not only was it a mistake for other teams to pass on him but that at 18-years old, he was good enough to be in the NHL right away. Benson earned a spot on the Sabres and took full advantage of his hard skating and hard-working style of play to become arguably the best forechecker on the team. His aggressive skating and ability to annoy opponents worked to his advantage as he was able to force turnovers further up the ice and become an instantly excellent penalty killer. Although he was a big-time scorer in juniors, his 11 goals and 19 assists couldn’t generate a lot of attention for the Calder Trophy. All that aside, with his defensive smarts and instincts already in place and excellent at the NHL level, it’ll only be a matter of time before he finds his stride offensively as he’s extremely creative with the puck and with his shot. It bears watching how much more he will score this season. A major breakout is on the horizon, it’s only a question of when.

Peyton Krebs

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	11	16	27	0.33

The 2023-2024 season proved to be a deeply frustrating one for Peyton Krebs. At 23-years old, he put up four goals and 13 assists and had the lowest offensive output of his career. Krebs played mostly in a fourth-line role between Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo which didn’t exactly help with generating offence, but that was the role he was asked to play and he handled it as best as he could. Krebs was the 17th pick in the 2019 draft, the same year as Dylan Cozens, and the expectations for him as an offensive player have always been high. When he had the opportunity to play up in the Sabres lineup, he struggled and couldn’t click well offensively with wingers like Zach Benson or JJ Peterka. While he possesses an adept ability to make passes and has solid offensive instincts, it hasn’t quite come together for him yet in Buffalo. As he heads into a new season, where he fits into the Buffalo lineup is a bit murky. Ideally, they’d like Krebs to play up in the lineup somewhere, be it at center or the wing, but he’s performed poorly any time he’s been on the wing. With the additions of Ryan McLeod and Sam Lafferty, it would seem the center spot on the third and fourth lines is spoken for unless Krebs forces the issue in camp or winds up playing elsewhere.

Jason Zucker

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	15	14	29	0.38

When the Sabres bought out Jeff Skinner in the offseason, the biggest question GM Kevyn Adams faced was how he was going to replace the point production he provided. When July 1st rolled around, the Sabres made the call for veteran Jason Zucker to address that need. Zucker is a five-time 20-plus goal scorer in the league and is two seasons removed from putting up 27 goals with the Pittsburgh Penguins. At 32-years old, he’s a knowledgeable veteran who knows his role and has always used his speed to his advantage both in the offensive game and as a forechecker. The Sabres will lean on Zucker to play in a role like what they had with Skinner late in the season. He’ll be able to play on any of the top three lines and likely battle with JJ Peterka and Zach Benson for those spots on the left wing. But most importantly, they’ll look for Zucker to find his scoring touch once again. He struggled last season with Arizona and Nashville and put up 14 goals with 18 assists. They would love to see him return to the prowess he had in Pittsburgh or previously with the Minnesota Wild, but should Peterka and Benson outperform him, at the very least the depth Zucker will provide will be greatly appreciated.

Ryan McLeod

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	8	15	23	0.29

One of the newest faces in Buffalo will also be one of, if not, the fastest on the team in Ryan McLeod. The Sabres acquired McLeod from the Edmonton Oilers in a swap that sent 2023 ninth overall pick Matthew Savoie back home to Alberta. The trade was panned by many given Savoie’s lofty draft status, but the specific role McLeod plays was greatly needed in Buffalo. As he showed during the Oilers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final, McLeod’s speed forces the issue on opponents trying to get out of their own zone. His forechecking and ability to recover and regroup rapidly helped provide a defensive presence on a team that desperately needed one up front. His role in Buffalo is expected to be the same and with Lindy Ruff’s system in place, the pressure McLeod puts on opposing puck carriers will be vital. Although he’ll be in a third- or fourth-line role, McLeod isn’t a physical player, but with the presence of others like Jordan Greenway, Sam Lafferty and Beck Malenstyn in Buffalo, he won’t have to be. His five-on-five possession numbers shined in Edmonton (career 54.7 percent shot attempts for at five-on-five) and he did that away from all their elite scoring forwards. If he can carry that over to Buffalo, it’ll provide a huge lift to their overall performance.

DEFENCE

Rasmus Dahlin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	50	68	0.83

Being the No.1 defenceman on the Buffalo Sabres can be a difficult job, but Rasmus Dahlin has handled all the slings and arrows that were thrown at him to become one of the top blue liners in the NHL. Dahlin tied with Alex Tuch for the team scoring lead with 59 points and he had his first 20-goal season in 2023-2024. Whether it was on the power play or at even-strength, Dahlin’s ability to move the puck from end to end is outstanding. He’s capable of making passes akin to what a first-line center would make and can rip slap shots with the kind of power very few possess. He’s a dynamic offensive presence on the blue line and while his point totals dipped last season compared to the previous season, the uptick in goals showed the evolution his game is making. Dahlin has also developed a physical edge and doesn’t shy away from stirring things up either. He’s become an excellent on-puck defender and his ability to deny passes is impressive. It’s not something that shows up in highlights or box scores, but watching it happen in the flow of play is outstanding. He’s a leader on the ice and in the locker room, but he must improve on the number of penalties taken. The 29 infractions drawn last season were most on the Sabres and given he drew 27, the difference wasn’t too bad. But for the Sabres to have success, he must stay on the ice.

Owen Power

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	7	33	40	0.50

It may not always be reflected in his boxcar statistics, but Owen Power is an outstanding defenceman already at age 21. Last season, he had six goals and 27 assists in 76 games and his 33 points were second in defensive scoring behind Rasmus Dahlin. Considering he was second on the Sabres in average time on ice (22:55) behind Dahlin, that makes a lot of sense. After being the No. 1 in the 2021 draft, the lofty expectations that go with it mean he’s supposed to have juicier overall stats. But Power’s effectiveness stands out in both his advanced stats and via the eye test. Watching how well he’s able to exit the defensive zone and control the play from the backend through the neutral zone shows why he was the top pick three years ago and why the Sabres rely on him as much as they do. That said, he’s going to be the No. 2 guy on the blue line behind Dahlin for years to come since both signed long-term contracts a year ago to stay in Buffalo. The key for Power is to play with the kind of swagger and confidence Dahlin plays with now. At 6-foot-5, Power’s stature on the ice is impressive and a player as big as him being as smooth and heady on his feet makes him a unicorn of sorts, for him to take the next step in his career, he’s got to assert himself more in a similar way his teammate did a few years ago.

Bowen Byram

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	12	20	32	0.42

When the Sabres added Bo Byram from the Colorado Avalanche in the trade that sent center Casey Mittelstadt to Denver, it was a classic eye-popping hockey deal and one that helped Buffalo build one of the more impressive collections of young defencemen in the league. Things appeared to stagnate a bit for Byram in Denver last season and the Avalanche’s need for forward help and the Sabres’ fear of what Mittelstadt’s next contract would look like helped make the deal happen. Upon his arrival in Buffalo, it was a bit tricky to sort out his performance. His initial impression showed a lot of what was expected: strong puck-moving capability, fast pace of play and natural offensive instincts. But as the season ground to the finish, he struggled without an established role on the blue line and finished with nine points (three goals, six assists) in 18 games with the Sabres. The hope this season will be that Lindy Ruff’s new system and desire to up the pressure all over the ice will open things up for defencemen to carry and attack when called for and give Byram and his teammates the chance to fly. There’s no doubt he would like the fresh chance to show what he can do because he’s slated to play somewhere within Buffalo’s top four on defence, be it next to Rasmus Dahlin or Owen Power. His tools are too good to not work with the talent the Sabres have.

Henri Jokiharju

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	4	14	18	0.24

Henri Jokiharju’s stronger dedication to defensive play on the blue line was more than apparent last season. The Sabres have plenty of other more offensive options on the blue line in Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Bo Byram, so it’s the defensive side of the game Jokiharju needed to zero in on. He was a solid complementary player whether he was teamed up with Dahlin or Power on the right side and his plus-14 rating was best on the Sabres. He had 17 points in 74 games with three goals to his credit. One thing that helped him straighten up on defence was how he stuck to his role and what he was asked to do. Often in previous seasons, there would be disconnects between those he was paired with and was more meant to carry the puck up the ice and pinch in the offensive zone to add to the attack. That kind of miscommunication caused defensive breakdowns and golden scoring chances for opponents. Seeing that limited last season while he minded the defensive zone was encouraging. But Jokiharju can be effective with the puck. His shot from the blue line is decent and he’s able to get it through screens if he does let it fly. As he enters his final season before potentially becoming an unrestricted free agent next July, it’ll be worth paying attention to how he fits into what Lindy Ruff wants to do.

GOAL

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
52	25	22	6	4	0.908	2.63

Devon Levi

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
25	12	11	2	1	0.903	3.01

Compared to teams with Vezina-caliber goaltending, the 2023-24 Buffalo Sabres in-net offerings didn't necessarily put up any performances of note. But the team's ability to finish their season with a positive goal differential - something the Sabres hadn't done since 2011 - felt like both a remarkable breath of fresh air and a sign that things might finally be going right for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. The 24-year-old Luukkonen, who had already temporarily lost his NHL gig twice with reassignments to the minors and benchings behind 41-year-old Craig Anderson, finally took the step forward that the team had been dying for. He finished the 2023 campaign with quality starts in nearly two-thirds of his games played, recording his first NHL shutout (and then adding four more, for good measure) and finally hitting his stride behind a team that seems poised to take a long-overdue step forward.

The real question now will be aimed at prospect Devon Levi. The expectation last year was that Levi, who had been putting up stellar performances at every level, would be able to step in and help guide the team as they took a step forward. Instead, Luukkonen finally put all the pieces together with his own game, improving his movement fluidity and tracking the puck in a way he hadn't with any regularity in years past. And Levi, typically a goaltender who looked best when beckoning pucks to him and holding his positioning, started to become more erratic and harder to stay confident in. The Sabres provided some relief for Levi (and Luukkonen) with a veteran James Reimer coming on board as this season's locker room leader, so Levi is free to work on his conditioning at the AHL level for a bit without feeling the pressure to perform immediately. But Reimer's own numbers have been middling at best for the last few seasons, and his workloads have been limited in volume. So sooner rather than later, expect the Luukkonen-Levi tandem to make another appearance.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Karlsson continues to shine in Vegas – Vatrano raising his game in Anaheim – Byfield picking up the pace in LA, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 03 Nov 2023 13:42:42 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Los Angeles Kings Quinton Byfield (55) l(Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make better fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Willam Karlsson continues to shine in Vegas, Frank Vatrano is raising his game in Anaheim, Quinton Byfield is picking up the pace in Los Angeles, and much more!

#1 William Karlsson was a standout on Vegas’ run to the Stanley Cup last season, scoring 11 goals in 22 playoff games, and he has continued to play at a high level early in the 2023-2024 season, putting up 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in his past 10 games. Karlsson does so much of his damage at even strength, with 10 of his 13 points this season coming at evens, and his most common linemates have been rookie winger Pavel Dorofeyev and Michael Amadio, so Karlsson is the one driving those results.

#2 Anaheim Ducks winger Frank Vatrano delivered 22 goals and a career-high 41 points last season, his first in Southern California, but has stepped into a bigger role this season. Vatrano’s ice time is up nearly two minutes per game compared to last season and he has scored nine goals while launching 35 shots on goal in 10 games. Vatrano has always been a quality shot generator, but often in a limited role. Now that he is playing more than 18 minutes per game, his per-game shot rate is soaring.

#3 Progress has been gradual for Quinton Byfield, the Kings winger who was the second overall pick in the 2020 Draft who had a modest career high of 22 points (3 G, 19 A) in 53 games last season. Byfield has suddenly picked up six points (1 G, 5 A) in his past five games and with a continued role on the Kings’ top line, alongside Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, Byfield is getting the opportunity to develop his offensive game.

#4 Coming into the season, there were relatively high expectations for Pavel Zacha, the Boston Bruins centre who appeared to be due for a bigger role with Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retiring. He had just one assist in five games but has rebounded from that slow start, contributing six points (4 G, 2 A) with 14 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. David Pastrnak has been Zacha’s most common linemate, and that is obviously a good sign, but Zacha has also shifted to left wing, with rookie Matthew Poitras getting a look on Boston’s top line.

#5 Buffalo Sabres defenceman Owen Power, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 Draft, is starting to find his range offensively, riding a four-game point streak, during which he has produced four points (1 G, 3 A) and seven shots on goal. Power’s upside for fantasy managers runs into a ceiling because Rasmus Dahlin is the quarterback on Buffalo’s top power play unit and that doesn’t figure to change anytime soon, but Power has the offensive skills to be productive even as the No. 2 option on the Buffalo blueline.

#6 Veteran New York Islanders winger Kyle Palmieri has been a serviceable secondary scorer since he was acquired from the New Jersey Devils, but has taken on a bigger role this season, tallying eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his first nine games. He is skating with Pierre Engvall and Brock Nelson on the Islanders’ second line, but Palmieri does get first unit power play time, so there is an opportunity for him to hit 40 points for the first time since 2019-2020.

#7 Following a standout rookie season in which he tallied 24 goals, Dallas Stars centre Wyatt Johnston has continued his upward trajectory. In his past six games, Johnston has produced six points (3 G, 3 A) with a dozen shots on goal as Johnston maintains his familiar spot between Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov.

#8 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand got off to such a slow start last season, managing 14 points (3 G, 11 A) in his first 31 games and while his production got better, he was really chasing after such a poor start. The good news for Bjorkstrand and the Kraken is that it does not appear to be happening this season. With his goal Thursday night against Nashville, Bjorkstrand has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. After recording 10 power play points last season, Bjorkstrand already has four power play points this season.

#9 After missing all of last season while he recovered from neck and triceps injuries, Flyers right winger Cam Atkinson has already shown that he has not forgotten how to finish. In his past seven games, Atkinson has tallied eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 21 shots on goal. Getting that kind of production from a 34-year-old who just missed an entire season certainly helps lift the Flyers to a more competitive place and he has moved to play alongside Sean Couturier, the veteran centre who also missed all of last season. While the playoffs might still be a longshot, having Atkinson and Couturier healthy does change that calculation somewhat.

#10 Seattle Kraken left winger Jaden Schwartz has had an interesting career, with quality production mixed in with some injury-plagued seasons. He is off to a fine start this year, and has put up seven points (2 G, 5 A) with 19 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. Schwartz is skating on a line with Alexander Wennberg and Jordan Eberle, but has been a power play threat, with four of his nine points this season coming with the man advantage.

#11 New York Rangers star defenseman Adam Fox suffered an apparent leg injury Thursday after a leg-on-leg hit from Carolina Hurricanes centre Sebastian Aho. A Fox injury would leave a large hole on the Rangers blueline. He has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in 10 games this season and has finished in the top five in Norris Trophy voting in each of the past three seasons, winning in 2020-2021. If Fox is going to be out of the lineup, Erik Gustafsson would be a logical replacement as the power play quarterback but K’Andre Miller might also be an option for more power play time, too.

#12 For managers in deep or banger leagues, Arizona Coyotes centre Jack McBain is producing enough to generate interest. In his second season, McBain has six points (4 G, 2 A) in the past five games, but that is also not likely to be sustainable since he is a fourth liner playing about 12 minutes per game. Nevertheless, McBain’s fantasy appeal is tied to his physical play as he had 304 hits last season and has 28 hits through 10 games this season. If he gets his offensive production to even passable levels, there is a path to fantasy value.

#13 It appears that the Winnipeg Jets have found something in their physical third line of Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry, and Mason Appleton. Appleton has five points (2 G, 3 A) in the past five games and the trio has controlled 62.7% of five-on-five shot attempts and 60.3% of expected goals this season. There may be an offensive ceiling for these players but dominating five-on-five play to this degree at least indicates that they will be getting scoring chances.

#14 There are a couple of rookie defencemen forcing their way into the fantasy conversation. New Jersey’s Luke Hughes has six assists and 12 shots on goal in the past four games, and four of those assists have come on the power play as Hughes is getting a look on the Devils’ top power play unit, with Dougie Hamilton sliding to the second unit. Across the country, in Anaheim, Ducks defenceman Pavel Mintyukov has five assists in the past five games and while he is getting a chance on the Ducks’ No. 1 power play unit, Mintyukov has just one power play point this season.

#15 The Philadelphia Flyers lost goaltender Carter Hart to a “mid-body” injury this week and it seems that they will be without him for a while. Samuel Ersson is next in line and the Flyers have recalled Cal Petersen from the American Hockey League, but none of this precludes Felix Sandstrom from potentially seeing action in the Flyers net as well. Ersson has had an incredibly poor start to the season, allowing 14 goals on 59 shots (a .763 save percentage!), while Petersen has a .884 save percentage in four AHL games this season. Although the goaltending could be a major question mark, the Flyers deserve credit for playing a stronger team game this season as they have earned 54.8% of score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals during five-on-five play, which puts them in the top ten in that category.

#16 Ottawa Senators rookie centre Ridly Greig was hurt early in Thursday’s defeat against the Los Angeles Kings and that is going to test the Senators for the time that Greig is out. With Shane Pinto suspended, Greig was an important part of the lineup, contributing seven points (2 G, 5 A) in eight games prior to Thursday as Ottawa’s third line centre. As a short-term fix, Rourke Chartier could move up the depth chart, but the journeyman pivot has two points (1 G, 1 A) in 28 career games, so he may not be a viable answer if Greig is going to miss significant time.

#17 Alexander Barabanov is out 4-6 weeks with a broken finger and that creates an opening on San Jose’s top line alongside Tomas Hertl and Anthony Duclair. San Jose is hardly the source for great fantasy production, as the Sharks are getting buried on a nightly basis, but in deep leagues keep tabs on Fabian Zetterlund, who is getting that chance and is averaging nearly 16 minutes per game over the past five.

#18 While it was understood that veteran right winger Blake Wheeler had seen his better days, the 37-year-old still had 55 points (16 G, 39 A) in 72 games for the Winnipeg Jets last season. He has started a new phase with the New York Rangers in the worst way, going without a point in his first 10 games, and he is playing just 12 minutes per game, his lowest time on ice average of his career. Without a role on the Blueshirts’ power play, Wheeler is going to be hard-pressed to get his production back to fantasy relevant levels unless there is a dramatic shift in the situation.

#19 After a strong finish to last season, when he was between Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz on Arizona’s top line, Barrett Hayton was in a good spot to continue his career ascent. He is still centering that top line, and getting power play time, but has yet to record a point through 10 games this season. Hayton has 25 shots on goal and is playing a career-high 19:31 per game, so he might be a decent buy-low candidate, but his value has taken an unexpected hit due to his lack of production.

#20 Ongoing health issues have forced Washington Capitals centre Nicklas Backstrom to step away from the game and while his announcement did not have a final decision, it appears that the 35-year-old could be headed for retirement. An elite player from 2007-2008 through 2020-2021, Backstrom has been hampered by hip issues and it has been a tough road coming back. Since returning last season, Backstrom has 22 points (7 G, 15 A) in 47 games and the Capitals have been outscored 31-16 with him on the ice during five-on-five play. He just isn’t the same player who was nearly a point-per-game scorer in his first 1,000 games in the league and, at his peak, was in the Selke Trophy discussion. With Backstrom out, that does provide more opportunity for Dylan Strome, whose ice time has been climbing and has six goals in his past six games.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – BUFFALO SABRES – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Fri, 22 Sep 2023 21:37:53 +0000

ST. PAUL, MN - JANUARY 28: Buffalo Sabres Defenceman Rasmus Dahlin (26) follows the play during a game between the Minnesota Wild and Buffalo Sabres on January 28, 2023, at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

Review: In 2022-23, the Buffalo Sabres missed the playoffs, extending their NHL-record postseason drought to 12th consecutive campaigns. As hard as it is for a fanbase to feel good after that much pain, the latest iteration of the Sabres were fun to watch and showed plenty of promise. Tage Thompson led the offense with 47 goals and 94 points in 78 contests, making GM Kevyn Adams look like a genius for locking him up in the summer of 2022 to a seven-year, $50 million contract that will begin in 2023-24. Thompson was far from their only weapon though. Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch and Dylan Cozen each provided over 30 goals and 65 points while Rasmus Dahlin was one of the league’s top offensive defensemen, contributing 15 goals and 73 points. With that core, Buffalo ranked third offensively (3.57 goals per game), but the squad was ultimately held back by poor defense and mediocre goaltending.

What’s Changed? While it’s not technically a change, the single biggest difference from 2022-23 to 2023-24 is that Buffalo will now get a full campaign of Devon Levi after the goaltending prospect appeared in seven NHL contests last year. The 21-year-old has a lot to prove, but he has the potential to be the solution in net Buffalo sorely needs. The Sabres also inked defensemen Erik Johnson and Connor Clifton in the hopes of making life a little easier on their goaltenders.

What would success look like? At this point if the Sabres make the playoffs, that’s a win. It’s not going to be easy in the immensely competitive Atlantic Division, but it’s certainly an obtainable goal for Buffalo. That talented offense that carried them last year is still there and many of their key forwards are just now entering their prime. If Clifton and Johnson help stabilize their defense while Owen Power takes another step forward in his march towards being an elite two-way blueliner, then Buffalo will be a far more well-rounded team. Levi is by far the biggest X-Factor, but even a decent year out of him might be all the Sabres need to get over the hump.

What could go wrong? It’s just as possible that Levi might not be ready. Even with an encouraging seven-game stint with the Sabres last campaign, he’s still largely inexperienced and has yet to be tested against the grind of an 82-game season. If he’s not up to the task then that leaves Buffalo with Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, but both left plenty to be desired last season. The Sabres offense should be at least fine even in a worst-case scenario, but Skinner has had a rollercoaster career, so there’s no guarantee he’ll come even close to his 35-goal and 82-point 2022-23 performance.

Top Breakout Candidate: It’s got to be Levi. As much of a risk as he is, the talent and opportunity are there. If he proves that he’s capable now of holding that starting gig – and yes that’s a significant if – then he’ll have the benefit of the Sabres’ immense offensive support, making it possible for him to reach the 30-win mark as a rookie.

Forwards

Tage Thompson - C

Hard to believe there was a question about how Tage Thompson would do as a follow-up to his breakout 38-goal season in 2021-2022, but he showed it was not a one-season-wonder. Thompson piled up career-highs in goals (47), assists (47), and points (94) and led the Sabres in goals and points. It’s incredible to see his growth in production at the center spot and how he’s become one of the elite players in the NHL and a couple years after there was doubt as to whether he’d be an NHL player at all. Thompson’s explosion has spurred the Sabres out of the doldrums of a seemingly never-ending rebuild into a team that’s on the brink of making the playoffs for the first time since 2011 and possibly becoming a Stanley Cup contender. Understandably, Thompson’s shot output increased in 2022-2023 and his shot percentage improved by nearly one percent (15 to 15.9). That’s the kind of repeatable output the Sabres love to see because they’ll want him to continue ripping the puck. What’s more impressive is he doubled his goal output on the power play from 10 to 20 goals. He has an elite shot and one of the most potent one-timers in the game and it makes him someone opposing penalty kills must cover at all costs. With 53 of his 94 points coming on the power play last season, Thompson alone makes committing penalties against Buffalo a recipe for losing games.

Jeff Skinner - LW

The turnaround Jeff Skinner’s career has had under coach Don Granato continued in 2022-2023. Skinner was second on the Sabres in points with 82 and was third on the team in goals with 35. It was the first time he had 30-plus goals in consecutive seasons and his 82 points broke his previous career-high of 63 (which he’d done four times, twice each with Buffalo and Carolina). After his 40-goal season in 2018-2019, he scored 21 goals the next two seasons combined playing for Ralph Krueger and Granato. Skinner continued his career-long trait of being an outstanding even strength scorer with 27 of his 35 coming at evens and 25 at 5-on-5. While Skinner has never been a strong power play scorer, his 21 power play points last season set a new career high. While Skinner was a top-line scorer for Buffalo in his first season with the Sabres, his resurgence under Granato has had him there again playing on a line with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. Although Granato tried to see what other line combinations would work last training camp, the experimentation didn’t last long and the trio was reunited quickly. Expect them to stay together this season and be one of the NHL’s top scoring lines again.

Alex Tuch - RW

Alex Tuch continued to be the power forward the Sabres always dreamed of again last season. Tuch had a career year with 36 goals and 79 points with 27 goals coming on even strength (21 of them at 5-on-5). At 6’4” 219 pounds, Tuch’s work around the net complements the high-end skill of Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner with the ability to boss his way to and around the net. Coupling that with a deceptive wrist shot and he’s proved to be an all-around offensive threat for the Sabres. On top of his offensive production, Tuch also plays a strong two-way game again incorporating his size and reach to disrupt puck carriers and ability to be physical when needed. Although Buffalo’s penalty kill hasn’t been a high point in recent years, Tuch had a shorthanded goal for the second straight season. But it’s the offensive ability that sets Tuch apart and that he scored at more than a point per game pace for the first time in his career last season at age 26 shows he’s hitting his prime at the right time for the Sabres. Although Buffalo has a load of offensive options, Tuch’s power forward play makes him unique and a necessary change-up compared to the speedy snipers and skill players elsewhere on the roster.

Dylan Cozens - C

It was only a matter of time before Dylan Cozens had a true breakout season and 2022-2023 was it. Cozens set career highs with 31 goals and 68 points in just his third season. The 22-year-old from Yukon took the lessons learned from his first two NHL seasons as well as from playing wing for Canada at the 2022 World Championships to become more of a shooter and lean into that part of his game. It paid off in a big way as his shot output jumped dramatically (160 to 211) and his shooting percentage with it (8.1 to 14.7). Cozens was a threat in all situations and scored 24 goals at even strength to go with five on the power play and two shorthanded. His tenacious forechecking and eagerness to play the body helps him stand out from the likes of Thompson, Peyton Krebs, and Casey Mittelstadt up the middle. Even though his new scoring marks set a tricky bar to meet or exceed, the growth in his game and how players like Thompson have elevated over the years indicate that being able to do just that is very possible. Cozens slots in automatically as the Sabres’ No. 2 center as well as leading their second power play unit. As he’s gotten stronger, his physical play has grown but it’s the offensive end of the ice where he’s most dangerous and he was the de facto leader on a line with rookies J.J. Peterka and Jack Quinn last season despite the three of them all being roughly the same age. It’s right to expect a bit more from Cozens this season because we’re just starting to see the best of him now.

Jack Quinn - RW

Quinn’s rookie season didn’t have the kinds of numbers that knock your hair back when compared to some of the other outstanding first-year players around the league, but a deeper look at what he accomplished shows there’s reason to believe he’d be due for a big season. Quinn had 14 goals and 37 points over 75 games in 2022-2023. That put him seventh among NHL rookies in scoring and tied for eighth in goals with Montreal’s Raphael Harvey-Pinard. Quinn’s output was similar to what Dylan Cozens had in his second NHL season but Quinn’s skill with his shot and stick handling ability indicates he’s a player that will be able to fill the net in years to come. What’s difficult for him this season is how he’ll come back from a ruptured Achilles’ tendon he sustained during offseason workouts in June. That injury will keep him out of action until December or January at the latest and will certainly affect his total offensive output. The Sabres depth at forward will prevent Quinn’s absence from being a major blow, but how it affects his further development is worth paying attention to. It’s the second time Quinn has had an injury affect his offseason. In April 2021, he needed sports hernia surgery that ended his season in the AHL, but his performance in 2021-2022 showed he had no lingering ill effects. Buffalo hopes that will repeat itself when he returns in winter.

J.J. Peterka - LW

Peterka’s first NHL season saw him ride the typical rookie roller coaster in learning what he can and can’t get away with against the best players in the world. He had 12 goals and 32 helpers for the Sabres and showed the speed and creativity in his game that has everyone in Buffalo excited to see what more he’s capable of doing. Although he’s working on improving his two-way game, it’s the offensive play that will set him apart from his peers. His ability to get in behind defenders with his speed helps him get free for chances but how he finishes plays will be something to keep an eye on going forward. He’s able to create opportunities out of nowhere and what he’s capable of doing sets him apart from his usual linemates in Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn. He and Quinn have chemistry from their year together in AHL Rochester and that helped them both during last season in Buffalo, although they would occasionally struggle while learning the ropes. But that’s nothing out of the ordinary when bringing along two 21-year-old players into their first NHL seasons. More will be expected of Peterka, of course, and with Quinn’s absence to start the season the hope is all steps he’s taken in the offseason will pay off instantly. He was outstanding for Germany during the 2023 World Championships. He tied for second in the tournament in scoring with 12 points in 10 games and was named the best forward in the tournament. Germany won silver, their first medal at Worlds since 1953.

Casey Mittelstadt - C

Patience is proving to be Casey Mittelstadt’s best quality during his time with Buffalo. The 2017 No. 8 overall pick in the NHL Draft had a career year for the Sabres last season. He had 16 goals and 59 points in a year that was a borderline make-it-or-break-it season for him. His point total was more than twice his previous career-high of 25 points back in 2018-2019 and his 15 goals were three better than his previous best also set that season. Aside from good health, what allowed Mittelstadt to break out was his versatility. He played both at center and on the wing and showed he could lift his linemates in any given situation. He also showed he can be an effective scorer on the power play and provide help shorthanded as well. As a 5-on-5 player he was above-average in shot generation and suppression and broke even in goals scored and allowed when he was on the ice. Although the light that shined on Mittlestadt in previous seasons seemed to focus on his negative outcomes, there’s no doubt he was able to turn that around last season by consistently being involved offensively and creating shots and scoring opportunities for his teammates. A devoted teammate, Mittelstadt always strives to improve his game and to do what he can to better himself for the rest of the group. That he was able to post a breakout season and still be under the radar compared to his teammates speaks volumes to the value he does have. He’s become a vital cog for the rest of the lineup and gives the Sabres depth scoring beyond the first line for sure and takes the heat off some of his younger teammates as well. That said, it was such a standout year from him that it stands to wonder what he can do to follow that up this season.

Peyton Krebs - LW

While the majority of the attention among the Sabres youngest players went to the likes of Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens, and JJ Peterka, Peyton Krebs did a lot of the dirty work that doesn’t always get noticed, least of all in the stat columns. Krebs was an anchor up the middle on a line with Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo. While that line gets referred to as the “fourth line” often, the truth is it functioned as the Sabres’ shut down/energy line used to change the tempo of the game in their favor and regain steady puck possession. Krebs was able to do this by transforming into an irritator and a tenacious forechecker. Although he doesn’t stand out physically, he was able to use his body and his strength to his advantage to throw opponents off their games. Krebs even went so far as to get in a few fights last season, a rarity among the Sabres in general. All that said, Krebs still set career highs with nine goals and 26 points. What makes him different than a lot of forwards that play that kind of role is Krebs still has strong offensive instincts and abilities. He has an uncanny ability to read plays and to make difficult passes that would normally not come from other third-or-fourth-line forwards. Although Krebs thrives in the shutdown role, he is more than capable of sliding up the lineup to add more offense when called upon. At 22 years old, there’s a lot more to come from Krebs, the question is how much more offense will come or how much more of a shutdown forward he will turn out to be.

Victor Olofsson - RW

Every team in the league has a pariah when it comes to the fan base and unfortunately for Victor Olofsson, he was it last year. What’s wild is Olofsson had a career-high 28 goals last season, fifth most on the team, seven of which came on the power play. Of his 40 points, 12 came on the power play and his 17 goals at 5-on-5 were the most he’s had in a season in his career. The raw box car numbers seem great, assists aside, and they scream out that he’s a player who is doing what’s asked of him and is capable of more. So, what’s got fans upset with him? It’s his 5-on-5 play in general that stood out in the worst way. The majority of Olofsson’s teammates had better possession numbers away from him than with him (according to Natural Stat Trick) and at 5-on-5 he was 10th on the team in scoring but the Sabres were outscored 52-34 when he was on the ice. And while Tage Thompson’s numbers exploded on the power play, Olofsson’s have plateaued with seven power play goals in three straight seasons. There’s an opportunity for redemption this season, however. With Quinn out until December or January, it opens the chance for Olofsson to reclaim his role in the lineup by becoming a stronger 5-on-5 player and to not just rely on ripping shots from the circle to score goals and generate chances. He enters the season in the final year of his contract so there’s an abundance of motivation for him to turn it around with Buffalo and if not ultimately with them then another team to acquire him.

Defense

Rasmus Dahlin - D

Of the many players whose careers have blossomed in Buffalo under coach Don Granato, Rasmus Dahlin’s growth into one of the top point-producing defensemen in the NHL is perhaps the sweetest redemption. When he arrived as a rookie in 2018, scoring was never a problem but playing a solid all-around game was a bit difficult. For a couple of seasons, the offense waned and the worry about whether he’d live up to being a No. 1 overall draft pick began, but over the past two seasons, and especially after 2022-2023, he’s shown to be exactly who many thought he would become. He was fourth on the Sabres in scoring last season with 73 points including 15 goals, both of which set new career highs. He was fifth among NHL defensemen in scoring and had 32 points on the power play which was fourth best among blue liners. His possession and shot metrics at 5-on-5 were tops among Sabres defensemen as well and showed that it wasn’t just the points that carried his game, something noticed by the PHWA voters as he finished eighth in Norris Trophy voting. He’s Buffalo’s No. 1 defenseman by far and one of the best in the NHL and just 23 years old.

Owen Power - D

Power’s rookie season showed a lot of why he was the No. 1 overall pick in 2021. His 35 points made him the leading scorer among rookie defensemen and 26 of those points came at even strength. He was entrusted with power play duty on the second unit thanks to Rasmus Dahlin running the show most of the time, but he was apt to distribute there with eight power play points. Even though Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson made up most of the time on the first pairing, Power was tasked with vital ice time and averaged 23:48 per game, second only to Dahlin. At 20 years old, Power was a major contributor and a vital cog to the Sabres defense corps and the maturity in his game earned him the coaching staff’s trust. What helped that out was his unflappable ability to work out of tough situations and his ice-cold demeanor to get the job done. His advanced numbers did not stand out as strongly as the anecdotes and standard statistics (his 5-on-5 expected goals percentage was under 49 percent) and his defense partners seemed to take a lot of that blame. With the additions of Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson, we’ll get to see how well Power adjusts with one of them by his side for much of the season. If nothing else, Power has shown early in his career he’s not only up to such challenges but also ready to exceed expectations as well.

Mattias Samuelsson - D

When Mattias Samuelsson signed a seven-year, $30 million extension last October, there was a lot of head-scratching going on around the league because he’s a guy who hadn’t played a lot of NHL games and wasn’t known for producing points. Then he paired up with Rasmus Dahlin and the young Swede put up career numbers and became a much better defensive player as well. Coincidence? Not according to Dahlin and the Sabres coaching staff. Samuelsson’s dogged defensive and physical play, to them, allows Dahlin to have more freedom in the offensive zone to create as well as carry the puck all over the ice. If a $4 million-plus cap hit allows for that, you can argue that it’s money very well spent. But Samuelsson does enough of his own work to justify the deal. His big size causes opponents to be weary of going into corners against him for pucks as well as dread being around the front of the net. He’s also capable enough with the puck to make a good first pass out of the zone to start a breakout. Samuelsson is a modern-day throwback defensive defenseman where 20 years ago he’d have spent a lot of time scrapping with foes, but now he’ll settle disputes during the flow of play instead. Intangibles don’t generally have a price tag, but for Samuelsson there’s a solid approximation of the value.

Connor Clifton - D

The Sabres had a few areas of weakness last season that didn’t have to do with goaltending. They weren’t very good on the penalty kill (fifth worst in the NHL) and they weren’t a physical team (last in the NHL in hits by a substantial margin). To address those needs, the Sabres signed former Boston Bruins defenseman Connor Clifton to a three-year, $10 million contract. Clifton arrives in Buffalo with a history of playing for Don Granato during his junior hockey days and a reputation for delivering physically punishing hits all over the ice while also capable of playing up-tempo hockey. Clifton had 208 hits last season, 23rd most in the league, which was 101 more hits than the Sabres leader Mattias Samuelsson (who played in 23 fewer games). The hits stand out, but Clifton also had 23 points and only had 60 PIM last season. With his style of hockey, he provides an arguably necessary change on the Sabres blue line and a player who can draw attention away from their more skilled players when the temperature rises throughout a game. He’s not there to be a goon, of course, but instead he’ll be counted on to use his solid speed to help move the puck as well as adding some physical explosiveness to the blue line group. The Sabres haven’t had a player who made opponents keep their heads on a swivel in many years and they’re expecting Clifton to change that for them and give them an element they’ll need if they’re to make the playoffs and have success therein.

Goaltending

Devon Levi - G

It might seem premature to bank on Devon Levi as an NHL starter this upcoming season for the Buffalo Sabres. But even if he only splits the net with one of the more established options the team has under contract, it’s hard to argue that he’s the most talented piece they have on the roster by a wide margin.

Buffalo finally seemed to admit defeat on the Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen experiment this past season when they signed Levi to an entry-level deal at the culmination of his second collegiate season. Luukkonen, while the starter for Buffalo over the largest volume of games, once again struggled to put up league-average numbers and lost out on nearly a third of the starts on the year to a 41-year-old Craig Anderson. And while Eric Comrie always seemed just a step away from being ready to take the reins at the NHL level, his abbreviated performance at the NHL level last year also looked like nothing more than a tweener backup option to be used as a stopgap. Buffalo desperately needs to finally take a step forward, and Levi seems like their best chance to do that. The good news, though, is that he’s got all the makings of being the next franchise number one. He’s taken top-tier tracking and fluid lower-body movements and added in cleaner transitions than initially displayed his draft year. Perhaps the best part of his game, though, is that he’s got lightning-quick hands and a willingness to stop the puck to halt play; he’s perfectly confident setting up the face-off in his own end, and he holds his depth long enough to control incoming approaches from the offense. For Buffalo, the structure he has in his game should help balance out a defensive lineup that has struggled to establish consistency over the last decade-plus, especially with young names poised to revamp the blue line in the team’s incoming era. A Sabres lineup with Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power pairing up with Devon Levi could become a team to watch for in the East. The question, ultimately, isn’t whether or not Levi is ready – it’s how many games he’ll have to play in rotation with Comrie and Luukkonen.

Projected starts: 35-40

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Difference makers in the final week of the season

Scott Cullen — Fri, 07 Apr 2023 19:01:41 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, players that might make a difference in the final week of the season, including Alex Lyon, David Perron, and Thomas Novak, plus some keeper league options to consider.

#1 In a season with some unexpected goaltending performances, Florida getting clutch performances out of 30-year-old Alex Lyon is one of the bigger surprises. With the Panthers pushing for a playoff spot, and Sergei Bobrovsky injured, the job has fallen to Lyon. He stopped 56 of 58 shots in Thursday’s 7-2 win over Ottawa, marking his fifth straight win, and he has a .961 save percentage in those five starts.

#2 Veteran winger David Perron is finishing strong for a Red Wings squad that has generally been fading down the stretch. Perron has put up 16 points (8 G, 8 A) with 36 shots on goal in his past 16 games. He is making the most of his opportunity on Detroit’s top line with Dylan Larkin and Dominik Kubalik. That trio has been excellent, capturing 59.2% of expected goals and 68.1% of goals during five-on-five play.

NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 19: Nashville Predators center Thomas Novak (82) is shown during the NHL game between the Nashville Predators and Edmonton Oilers, held on December 19, 2022, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

#3 Nashville’s improbable push for a playoff spot has been due in no small part to the emergence of young players who have been thrust into bigger roles. Center Thomas Novak is still widely available in fantasy leagues, despite scoring 30 points (13 G, 17 A) in his past 26 games. The 25-year-old had seven points (1 G, 6 A) in 27 games as a rookie last season, and started this season in the American Hockey League, so maybe it should not be surprising that he is so readily available, but his production deserves respect.

#4 On a lesser scale, Predators center Cody Glass has at least established his credentials as an NHL player and has contributed six points (4 G, 2 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past seven games. He has been averaging more than 17 minutes of ice time per game since the trade deadline, and the Preds remain in the playoff hunt into the final week of the regular season.

#5 Although he was held off the scoresheet in Thursday’s 4-1 win against Minnesota, Penguins right winger Bryan Rust has finished strong in what has otherwise been a relatively disappointing season. The industrious winger has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 30 shots on goal in his past nine games, giving him 20 goals for the fourth consecutive season. Rust has scored on just 9.6% of his shots this season, his lowest mark since 2015-2016.

#6 After erupting for a career-high 35 goals last season, Calgary Flames winger Andrew Mangiapane has 17 goals and 40 points heading into the final week of the regular season. However, he has been finding the scoresheet more frequently, putting up eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his past 11 games, as he continues to thrive on a line with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman. That trio has controlled 66.8% of expected goals and 72.9% of goals during five-on-five play. If the Flames somehow manage to reach the postseason, a lot of credit will be due to that line.

#7 Last week, I hit on several St. Louis Blues players that are providing good value late in the season. Add one more this week: Alexei Toropchenko. The 23-year-old scored a goal in Thursday’s 3-2 win over the Rangers, giving him six points (4 G, 2 A) and 15 shots on goal while playing nearly 14 minutes per game in his past six games.

#8 Consistency is sometimes elusive for the Rangers’ Kid Line, but Alexis Lafreniere has delivered seven points (2 G, 5 A) in his past seven games. He has scored 35 of his 39 points at even strength, the same as Matt Boldy, Alex DeBrincat, and Brad Marchand, among others.

#9 The top five defensemen when it comes to goals this season are largely who one might expect to finish in that top tier – Erik Karlsson, Dougie Hamilton, Roman Josi, and Cale Makar hold down four of the top five spots. Tied with Josi, and one goal ahead of Makar, is Carolina Hurricanes blueliner Brady Skjei who has nine points (6 G, 3 A) with 38 shots on goal in his past 13 games.

#10 Frequently a reluctant shooter, Blue Jackets center Jack Roslovic has put up eight points (4 G, 4 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. He has 44 points (11 G, 33 A) on the season, one off the career-high 45 points that he produced last season. Roslovic is having some late season success with rookie Kent Johnson on his wing.

#11 The Buffalo Sabres and Colorado Avalanche are the only two teams that still have five games remaining on their respective regular-season schedules. For fantasy squads that need every possible edge, finding a few extra games can make a difference. A couple of Sabres worth considering:

Owen Power – Buffalo’s rookie defenseman has six assists in his past five games. There is a ceiling on his offensive upside as long as Rasmus Dahlin is quarterbacking the top power play unit, but five games from Power could offer more potential than three games from other defenders.

Casey Mittelstadt – With Tage Thompson working his way back from injury, the Sabres have kept Mittelstadt with Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch. Mittelstadt could stand to shoot more but has delivered nine assists in his past five games.

#12 And a couple of Avs that could offer a late season lift:

Samuel Girard – Although Devon Toews and Bowen Byram are even better options, especially when Cale Makar is missing games, Girard has four points (1 G, 3 A) in his past five games, giving him a career-high 35 points but he also has a career-high 111 blocked shots and his 64 hits is one away from his career best, set last season.

Evan Rodrigues – With Gabriel Landeskog and Artturi Lehkonen out, Rodrigues has the opportunity to skate on Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen – a good place to ride their coattails to more points. When Rodrigues gets more ice time, the points have followed. He has 26 points (10 G, 16 A) in the 39 games in which he has played more than 17 minutes.

#13 The Top 10 scorers since the March 3 trade deadline, among players that were traded before the deadline:

Sammy Blais, St. Louis – 16 points (6 G, 10 A) in 18 GP

Marcus Johansson, Minnesota – 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 16 GP

Timo Meier, New Jersey – 13 points (9 G, 4 A) in 18 GP

Rasmus Sandin, Washington – 13 points (1 G, 12 A) in 15 GP

Jakub Vrana, St. Louis – 12 points (9 G, 3 A) in 17 GP

Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis – 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 17 GP

Tyson Barrie, Nashville – 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in 19 GP

Patrick Kane, N.Y. Rangers – 10 points (5 G, 5 A) in 15 GP

Mattias Ekholm, Edmonton – 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in 17 GP

Nino Niederreiter, Winnipeg – 10 points (6 G, 4 A) in 17 GP

While players like Meier, Tarasenko, and Kane would have been rostered in most leagues, there was significant value to be found via unexpected sources. Blais is the most obvious, but Johansson, Sandin, and Vrana have seen a significant upgrade in their respective value since the deadline. Kane might have been the biggest name to move, but his production has been mediocre and he is nursing an injury, with an eye towards getting healthy for the postseason.

#14 If you’re looking for some keepers for next season, consider Nick Schmaltz and Barrett Hayton of the Arizona Coyotes. Schmaltz has 33 points (14 G, 19 A) in his past 30 games and while he is not going to keep scoring on more than 22% of his shots, as he has during that hot stretch, he has a good thing going with Clayton Keller. Hayton has had similar success, putting up 28 points (13 G, 15 A) in his past 32 games and he has been generating more shots on goal, so he has not been as dependent on an inflated shooting percentage. The Coyotes should have some new faces up front next season, but Schmaltz and Hayton have shown in the second half of this season that they can be reliable offensive contributors.

#15 He has missed time following sports hernia surgery and has bizarrely seen his ice time cut this season but hold on to Winnipeg Jets right winger Nikolaj Ehlers. He has 36 points (12 G, 24 A) in 42 games but has played just 15:49 per game, a significant drop from the career-high 18:04 per game that he played last season. There could be changes in Winnipeg in the offseason, but Ehlers should be considered part of the solution there, with a bigger role than he has had in 2022-2023.

#16 A deeper cut for potential keepers for next season is Carolina Hurricanes center Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The 22-year-old pivot has scored 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in his past 18 games, lifting him to a modest career high of 39 points. This late surge does show some promise and Kotkaniemi should still be on his career ascent, even though he is wrapping up his fifth NHL season.

#17 While most fantasy managers would already be inclined to keep Florida Panthers winger Sam Reinhart, he is probably even more valuable than expected. Not only does Reinhart have 64 points (30 G, 34 A) in 79 games, but he has done this with a five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of 6.5%, which is very low for a scoring forward. That is the first time since 2017-2018 that it has been under 8.0%, so he is likely due to pick up more assists next season.

#18 On the surface, Ottawa Senators winger Alex DeBrincat has had a disappointing season, going from 41 goals in 2021-2022 to 26 goals this season. That does not mean that the 25-year-old sniper is not worth keeping for next season. His shooting percentage dropped to 10.1% this season, the second lowest mark of his career, but he generated 3.27 shots on goal per game this season, compared to 3.29 per game last season. A simple boost in shooting percentage could be enough for DeBrincat to get back to pushing for 40 goals. There is, admittedly, some uncertainty in where DeBrincat could play next season, as he is a restricted free agent due a high qualifying offer, but he is a good bet to be more productive in the 2023-2024 season.

#19 Known more for his defensive acumen, Minnesota Wild center Joel Eriksson Ek has still produced a career high 61 points (23 G, 38 A). The fascinating part is that Eriksson Ek is one of four players to have at least 10 fewer goals than their expected goals total on Natural Stat Trick. He has scored 23 goals with 34.45 expected goals, so it is reasonable to believe that there is even more offensive production possible. The other forwards to have missed their expected goals total by more than 10 are Carolina’s Stefan Noesen along with Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson.

#20 Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid has run away with the scoring race, currently leading teammate Leon Draisaitl by 25 points. The last time a player won the scoring race by that wide a margin was in 1990-1991, when Wayne Gretzky had 32 more points than Brett Hull. McDavid has done this with massive power play production (69 of 148 points with the man advantage), so he has not even needed a lofty on-ice shooting percentage during five-on-five play. His on-ice shooting percentage of 9.4% is higher than last season but is still the second lowest mark of his career. This is all to say that even if the Oilers power play is not quite as dominant next season that McDavid still has some statistical wiggle room in his quest for another huge scoring season.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.