P.K. Subban – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – New and Unexpected Opportunities for Veterans and Prospects

Scott Cullen — Thu, 07 Oct 2021 20:51:28 +0000

Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, a look at the fallout from injuries and other situations that might be creating new and unexpected opportunities for playing time this season, featuring veterans like Jake Allen and Jeff Carter, but also prospects William Eklund, Hendrix Lapierre, Shane Pinto, Lucas Raymond, and more.

#1 With the sudden news that Carey Price is entering the player assistance program, that leaves the Montreal Canadiens with a challenge in net, but they at least have a veteran capable of handling a starting role in Price’s absence. Jake Allen has a .912 save percentage in his career and .909 in 158 games across the past four seasons so he is hovering around league average performance. To be fair, while Price has been outstanding in recent playoff performances, his save percentage across the past four seasons has been .909, so Allen ought to be able to provide similar regular-season results. The Canadiens recently claimed Samuel Montembeault on waivers from Florida so their depth at the position is in better shape than it might have been previously.

#2 Few contending teams are in as precarious a position as the Pittsburgh Penguins to start the season, missing Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Crosby may only be out for a couple of weeks, but Malkin may miss the first couple of months, at least, and that leaves opportunities in the middle of the ice. The most obvious one to fill a hole at center is veteran Jeff Carter and that can be good and bad. At 36-years-old it is asking a lot for Carter to handle first-line center responsibilities and while he did score nine goals in 14 games for the Penguins last season, that was due largely to an unsustainable shooting percentage of 24.3%. In the short term, at least, it also looks like Evan Rodrigues could take some work at center but with 15 points in 42 games with the Penguins over the past season-plus, he could be a deep league consideration with an increased role.

#3 As off-ice troubles continue to follow Evander Kane at seemingly every turn, that does create a potential opening in the Sharks lineup. I wrote about Jonathan Dahlen last week and Alexander Barabanov could take advantage of an opportunity but, maybe the most intriguing option would be 2021 seventh overall pick William Eklund, who is a fresh-faced 18-year-old, but he also produced 23 points (11 G, 12 A) in 40 games for Djurgardens in the Swedish Hockey League last season. He is obviously a big part of the Sharks’ plans for the future but might be part of their plans for the present.

NEWARK, NJ - OCTOBER 04: Washington Capitals center Hendrix Lapierre (29) during the pre-season National Hockey League game between the New Jersey Devils and the Washington Capitals on October 4, 2021 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

#4 The Washington Capitals have been vague about the status of veteran center Nicklas Backstrom and, at the very least, it appears that he will not be ready to start the season with the Capitals and that means a big hole in the Washington lineup. Veteran center Lars Eller can move into a top-six role, which he did when Evgeny Kuznetsov missed time last season, but Hendrix Lapierre could find a regular role in the top nine, too. Lapierre was the 22^nd pick in the 2020 Draft and put up 31 points (8 G, 23 A) in 21 games for Chicoutimi in the QMJHL last season.

#5 Not long after he was selected by the Seattle Kraken in the expansion draft, former Tampa Bay Lightning center Yanni Gourde required shoulder surgery that was expected to require four months of recovery, which would cause him to miss at least a month of the NHL season. Now Gourde sure appears to be ahead of schedule in his recovery and has real potential as the Kraken’s number one center but, in the meantime, Jared McCann looks to be the immediate beneficiary, skating on the top line with Jaden Schwartz and Jordan Eberle and while McCann reaped the rewards of high percentages in Pittsburgh last season, on his way to contributing 32 points (14 G, 18 A) in 43 games, and that does make regression likely, McCann also played 14:07 per game which he should easily surpass, by at least a few minutes per game, with Seattle.

VANCOUVER, BC - APRIL 22: Ottawa Senators center Shane Pinto (57) skates up ice during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on April 22, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#6 Ottawa Senators center Colin White requires shoulder surgery and is going to miss 4-6 months, which helps secure top nine spots for a couple of Sens centers: rookie Shane Pinto and veteran Chris Tierney. Pinto produced 32 points (15 G, 17 A) in 28 games at the University of North Dakota last season, then added seven points (1 G, 6 A) in 12 late-season games for the Sens. It sure looks like a great opportunity for Pinto to play a significant role in his rookie season.

#7 The second pick in the 2020 Draft by the Los Angeles Kings, center Quinton Byfield suffered a broken ankle Wednesday, going into the boards very awkwardly due to a hit from Arizona Coyotes winger Christian Fischer. In the short term for the Kings, Blake Lizotte and Jarret Anderson-Dolan might have a better shot at fitting into the lineup but as the season progresses, maybe an opportunity opens up for another top prospect like Alex Turcotte, who might have a better chance to get called up in Byfield’s absence.

#8 The Arizona Coyotes spent most of their offseason shedding salaries but, ultimately, they need to have a full roster and that will present opportunities. One player who will get a chance with the Coyotes is Alex Galchenyuk, who signed a one-year, $750,000 deal with Arizona. Galchenyuk had 41 points (19 G, 22 A) in 72 games for the Coyotes in 2018-2019 but has 37 points (13 G, 24 A) in 94 games split between four teams across the past two seasons. His career has gone downhill since some early success in Montreal but there may be an opportunity for Galchenyuk to produce a bit in the desert.

#9 Columbus Blue Jackets center Max Domi had shoulder surgery in early June and was looking at a 4–6-month recovery time and now that he has passed the four month timeline, it does appear that Domi has a chance to be ready early in the regular season, potentially even by opening night. Would Domi’s potential return hinder the opportunity for the rookies trying to crack the Blue Jackets lineup? Yegor Chinakhov and Cole Sillinger have impressed in camp and could force their way into the lineup but that could get more challenging if another veteran returns to claim a spot.

#10 It is not like the Detroit Red Wings have been overrun with skill in recent seasons so losing Jakub Vrana to shoulder surgery, which will keep him out for four months, is crushing. However, that does create a chance for Lucas Raymond, the fourth pick in the 2020 Draft to play for the Red Wings right away. Raymond had 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 34 Swedish Hockey League games last season and might have been a likely candidate to start in the AHL this year, but the Wings could at least give Raymond an early look to see if he can keep the pace in the NHL.

#11 Everything in Buffalo seems to be overshadowed by the Jack Eichel situation and the Sabres are likely going to have a hard time without him, but they also might have someone flying under the radar a bit in veteran winger Jeff Skinner. Since scoring 40 goals in 82 games for the Sabres in 2018-2019, Skinner has managed 37 points (21 G, 16 A) in 112 games for Buffalo. But part of the issue was that previous Sabres coach Ralph Krueger got so frustrated with Skinner that he buried him on the depth chart – his most common linemate in the past two seasons was Curtis Lazar. At the very least, Skinner should be looking at a role more suited to his offensive skills this season.

#12 The New Jersey Devils blueline looks to be in tough shape entering the season, with injuries potentially keeping Damon Severson and Ty Smith out of the lineup. This would mean bigger roles for Jonas Siegenthaler and P.K. Subban but also could open up roster spots for the likes of Christian Jaros and Mason Geertsen, who was recently claimed on waivers. For fantasy purposes, Subban is the only one of those four with any potential and even his fantasy impact has declined quite significantly in recent seasons.

#13 While the New York Islanders are hopeful that veteran netminder Semyon Varlamov will be ready for the start of the season, it is possible that a nagging undisclosed injury could keep him out of the lineup and that would mean Ilya Sorokin gets the early starts for the Islanders. Sorokin had a .918 save percentage in 22 games for the Islanders last season which makes him one of the higher-quality backups in the league.

#14 Edmonton Oilers winger Kailer Yamamoto is currently dealing with a head injury, which could affect his start to the season. The hope for fantasy managers is that a healthy Yamamoto gets to skate alongside Leon Draisaitl consistently at evens because, in the past two seasons, the Oilers have outscored opponents 59-27 during 5-on-5 play with Draisaitl and Yamamoto on the ice and Draisaitl has assisted on 14 of Yamamoto’s 19 goals in the past two seasons.

#15 Montreal Canadiens winger Mike Hoffman is working his way back from a lower-body injury and is likely to miss at least a couple of weeks at the start of the season, possibly more. His absence seems to make for an easier fit for Jonathan Drouin’s return to a top-six role at 5-on-5 and the bigger issue may be on the power play, where Brendan Gallagher or Tyler Toffoli could get bumped to the second unit if the Habs’ plan is to ultimately have Hoffman and Cole Caufield as shooters on each side.

#16 With Kevin Hayes recovering from abdominal surgery, which could cost him the first month of the season and the Philadelphia Flyers demoting prospect Morgan Frost, it looks like Derick Brassard has a chance to play a significant early role for Philadelphia. He did have some productive years under Alain Vigneault with the New York Rangers, but Brassard has 75 points in 189 games with five different teams across the past three seasons.

#17 A player worth considering in deep leagues, even as a waiver pickup at some point early in the season is Chicago’s Wyatt Kalynuk, who is likely to miss 2-4 weeks at the start of the season due to a sprained ankle, but he had nine points (4 G, 5 A) in 21 games for Chicago last season and, when healthy, still see some second unit power play time.

#18 The St. Louis Blues appear to be giving a long look to left winger Jake Neighbours, the 26^th pick in the 2020 Draft who tallied 33 points (9 G, 24 A) in 19 games for Edmonton in the Western Hockey League last season. With Oskar Sundqvist still recovering from knee surgery, maybe that helps Neighbours get some early action with the Blues and his performance can dictate whether he stays or goes.

#19 Last season, the New Jersey Devils gave a lot of young forwards a chance to play and show what they could do in the NHL. That list included Yegor Sharangovich, Janne Kuokkanen, and Michael McLeod, but also Nathan Bastian, Mikhail Maltsev, Nick Merkley, and Nick Merkley – all of those players logged at least 300 minutes for the Devils last season. This year, the team is improved, in part because of the development of some of those young forwards, but also has some rookie forwards that are legitimate contenders for spots. Alexander Holtz was the seventh pick in the 2020 Draft and scored 18 points (7 G, 11 A) in 40 SHL games before adding two points (1 G, 1 A) in 10 AHL games last season. Then there is Dawson Mercer, the 18^th pick in the 2020 Draft who had 36 points (19 G, 17 A) in 23 QMJHL games for Chicoutimi last season. The Devils need their infusion of skill up front, but the question is if they decide that they need it immediately.

#20 While the first two picks of the 2021 Draft, Owen Power and Matty Beniers, are going back to the University of Michigan (as are fourth pick Luke Hughes and fifth pick Kent Johnson), the third pick in the 2021 Draft is making a push to start this season with the Anaheim Ducks. Mason McTavish had 18 points (11 G, 7 A) in 17 regular-season-plus-playoff-games for EHC Olten in Switzerland last season, shifting gears when there was no Ontario Hockey League season, and he does not look out of place on this rebuilding Ducks roster.

Scott Cullen’s 20 Points on Fantasy Hockey 3/10/21 – Consistent shooters getting rewarded

Scott Cullen — Wed, 10 Mar 2021 20:18:49 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, some consistent shooters are getting rewarded, a Pittsburgh star is turning around his season, Buffalo’s best are having a hard time, and heavy hitters have value too.

PITTSBURGH, PA - MARCH 09: Pittsburgh Penguins Center Evgeni Malkin (71) handles the puck during the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Rangers on March 9, 2021, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire)

20 POINTS ON FANTASY HOCKEY

#1 I wrote last week about how unfortunate Anaheim Ducks winger Rickard Rakell had been around the net this season, scoring two goals on 69 shots. The underlying message was that his shot rates still gave reason for hope that Rakell would start finding the net. A week later, he has scored four goals on 14 shots in the past four games and is suddenly one of the hottest scorers in the league with 12 points (5 G, 7 A) during a six-game point streak.

#2 Blue Jackets winger Patrik Laine was supposed to add a jolt of electricity to the Columbus attack and it just has not materialized, in part because he is not getting enough chances to shoot the puck. In 17 games with Columbus, Laine is generating 5.35 shots/60 during 5-on-5 play. His lowest shot rate in Winnipeg was 7.53 shots/60 when he was a rookie in 2016-2017. The story is not any better on the power play either. During 5-on-4 action, Laine’s shot rate is similar to last season but 20.5 shot attempts/60 is easily a career low and 0.67 expected goals/60 is also a career low. All of this is to suggest that if the Blue Jackets would like to get their sniper out of his seven-game scoreless slump, he needs to get more opportunities to shoot the puck.

#3 This does not absolve Laine, by the way. His most common linemates, Jack Roslovic and Cam Atkinson, have had better results away from Laine so this story is not about how they must feed their scoring winger, even though that may be part the answer. The other part is that Laine has to be more intent on getting his shots and he is a player who tends to require assistance in that part of the game, as opposed to creating his own scoring opportunities. He did record six shots on goal against Florida Tuesday so that is a step in the right direction, but his shot volume has to improve if he is going to live up to expectations.

#4 In 2018-2019, Alex DeBrincat scored 41 goals while scoring on 18.6% of his shots. Some good fortune to score at that rate. Last season, regression hit hard and even with improved shot volume, his shooting percentage plummeted to 8.6% and DeBrincat finished with 18 goals in 70 games. This season, he is shooting even more, up from 2.96 shots per game to 3.43 shots per game, and with his shooting percentage jumping back up to 17.7%, DeBrincat has 14 goals in 23 games. That shooting percentage may be a little lofty, but it is easier to expect sustained offense out of DeBrincat if his shot rate remains high.

#5 A player who was generating shots and scoring chances early in the season, with very little to show for it, is Ottawa Senators right winger Drake Batherson, who had one goal on 38 shots through 16 games and even that goal was on the power play. Batherson has since broken through for eight goals in the past 12 games, including none in the past four games so he did have a stretch of eight goals in eight games. The nature of goal-scoring is such that players may run through hot and cold stretches but that is why it is important to keep generating shots so that the opportunity is there for pucks to get into the net.

#6 So which forward might be generating shots at a high rate that might not be finishing so successfully yet? San Jose right winger Timo Meier, Ottawa left winger Brady Tkachuk, Colorado center Nathan MacKinnon, Nashville right winger Viktor Arvidsson, Boston right winger Craig Smith, and Buffalo left winger Jeff Skinner are among the Top 15 in shot attempts/60 during 5-on-5 play but are all scoring on less than 7% of their 5-on-5 shots on net. You are not likely to get bargains on Tkachuk or MacKinnon and Skinner’s situation in Buffalo does not warrant much fantasy interest but Timo Meier and possibly Viktor Arvidsson could have some upside.

#7 Regression is not merely about unsustainably high percentages coming down. Sometimes the reverse is true. Consider Vegas defenseman Shea Theodore, who has emerged as a dynamic puck-moving defenseman. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, Theodore’s on-ice shooting percentage during 5-on-5 play was 6.4%, eighth lowest among defensemen to play at least 1000 5-on-5 minutes in those two seasons and lowest among defensemen that played at least 2000 minutes. This season, his on-ice shooting percentage is 11.5%, which is unsustainably high, but he has been due for better on-ice results.

#8 This season has seemingly been a struggle for Washington Capitals center Evgeny Kuznetsov, who has just eight points (2 G, 6 A) in 15 games. He has never been a high-volume shooter but Kuznetsov’s shot rate at 5-on-5 (6.5 per 60) is better than the past couple of seasons and the Capitals are creating 57.0 shot attempts/60, which is a career high for Kuznetsov. The problem, at least for 5-on-5 play, is that Kuznetsov’s percentages are way down. He is scoring on 4.6% of his shots and his on-ice shooting percentage of 8.4% is a career low; his on-ice shooting percentage had been over 10.0% in the previous five seasons, over 11.0% in the past two.

#9 One of the issues affecting Kuznetsov’s point production, beyond those percentages, is that his power play ice time is down from 3:11 per game last season to 2:01 per game this season.

#10 With Jack Eichel out of the Sabres lineup for at least a week due to an upper-body injury, it is noteworthy just how poor his production has been this season and it entirely possible that the injury has played a significant part in his struggles. Eichel has just two goals in 21 games but the underlying numbers are terrible, too. His 5-on-5 shot (7.0 per 60) and expected goals rates (0.54 per 60) are at career lows.

#11 Compare that to Taylor Hall, another Buffalo forward with just two goals in 24 games. Hall’s 5-on-5 shot rate (7.3 per 60) is a career low but his expected goals (0.82 per 60) is consistent with his past two seasons, so he has 4.87 expected goals to this point in the season yet has managed just one goal at 5-on-5.

#12 Pittsburgh Penguins center Evgeni Malkin got off to a rough start this season, scoring seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 26 shots on goal in his first 13 games. For a 34-year-old player who typically generates a lot of shots this was a little concerning. Since then, Malkin has 12 points (3 G, 9 A) with 30 shots on goal in 12 games. There is a big jump in point production with an extra half shot on goal per game but the notable difference for Malkin is in power play shooting where his 5-on-4 shot attempts, shots, and expected goals per 60 minutes have all spiked.

First 13 games (5-on-4): 16.8 iCF/60, 6.1 shots/60, 0.42 ixG/60

Next 12 games (5-on-4): 32.2 iCF/60, 16.1 shots/60, 1.73 ixG/60

#13 It is possible to be a factor in fantasy hockey without putting up points. It’s not easy but peripheral categories like hits and blocked shots have value, too. Florida defenseman Radko Gudas leads the league with 118 hits in 24 games, an average of 4.9 per game. At his most rambunctious days with Philadelphia in 2015-2016 and 2016-2017, Gudas averaged 4.1 hits per game, so he has increased his hit rate by nearly 20% despite a decrease in ice time from those heavy-hitting days with the Flyers.

#14 Other hitters that are not necessarily going to draw interest with their point production but still can lower the boom and help your fantasy team: Pittsburgh winger Brandon Tanev (4.7 hits per game), Anaheim defenseman Jani Hakanpaa (4.0 hits per game), and Vegas enforcer Ryan Reaves (3.9 hits/game).

#15 There are four defensemen that have played at least 10 games and have averaged at least two hits and two blocked shots per game: Adam Larsson, Calvin de Haan, Jacob Trouba, and David Savard. Larsson is the only one averaging three hits and three blocks per game.

#16 The most prolific shooter in the league who is still available in many leagues is Minnesota Wild right winger Kevin Fiala, who is generating 3.6 shots per game. He started the season with no goals in the first four games, then scored six goals in seven games, then no goals in six games, and now has two goals in the past three games. Overall, he has eight goals in 20 games. The bigger issue for Fiala’s production is that he has just three assists after he had 31 assists in 64 games last season.

#17 Vegas goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is having the best season of his career, at least through 16 games. He leads the league with a .943 save percentage and his .926 save percentage during 4-on-5 play and .942 save percentage during 5-on-5 play are the high-water marks for his career.

#18 While the shot and expected goal rates have been similar to previous seasons, Fleury has reaped the rewards of outstanding penalty killing from the Golden Knights so far this season. See the difference of Vegas’ on-ice results during 4-on-5 play with Fleury in net compared to last season. There has been a dramatic decline in Corsi, shots, and expected goals against.

2019-2020 (4-on-5): 97.9 CA/60, 50.8 SA/60, 6.04 xGA/60

2020-2021 (4-on-5): 70.2 CA/60, 27.9 SA/60, 3.93 xGA/60

#19 Philadelphia defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere has climbed out of the doghouse and is playing much more aggressively. A healthy scratch early in the season, Gostisbehere has five points (4 G, 1 A) with 31 shots on goal in the past eight games. Among defensemen who have played at least minutes in 5-on-4 situations this season, Gostisbehere has the highest rate of Corsi/60 (32.4), shots/60 (19.9), and expected goals/60 (1.56).

#20 Other defensemen that have high shot rates yet are still available in fantasy leagues: Nashville’s Mattias Ekholm, Minnesota’s Matt Dumba, and New Jersey’s P.K. Subban.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2021 NHL YEARBOOK: Under the Radar Fantasy All-Stars

Scott Cullen — Sun, 03 Jan 2021 18:09:45 +0000

FANTASY ALL-STARS

There are many reasons why a player might not be valued in the fantasy hockey marketplace. Often, that discrepancy between market value and expectations for a new season can be tied to poor percentages the year before.

It’s important to understand that shooting percentage and on-ice shooting percentage can fluctuate in small samples and from one year to the next there can be dramatic shifts and the changes in those percentages ultimately change goal and point production, too.

But there are other reasons why a player might be in position to exceed expectations in a new season. Maybe the player is coming back from injury or has moved to a new team or is looking at a bigger role on the power play; all of these factors could put a player in a better position to produce.

Last year’s Fantasy All-Stars article included the likes of Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller, William Nylander, Jaden Schwartz, and Kevin Fiala among those who were much more valuable by the end of the season than they might have been expected to be at the beginning. It also included Alex Galchenyuk, so there are no guarantees here but there are some tried and frequently true methods for seeking out players who can exceed expectations and thereby provide fantasy value that can make a difference in your league.

Opportunity matters, fluctuations in percentages matter, and when it comes to value in fantasy drafts, perception matters.

While someone like Taylor Hall should be better this season than he was last season, there’s not necessarily a lot of value to be gained because there’s naturally quite a bit of hype surrounding his move to Buffalo and the possibility of playing with Jack Eichel.

Hall is a good bet to have a bounce-back season and he could very well be one of the top left wingers by season’s end but that’s going to be a very popular take so there isn’t necessarily a lot of excess value to be gained unless he has a truly exceptional campaign.

Here are my Fantasy All-Stars for the 2020-2021 NHL season, players that may be able to provide good value relative to their preseason expectations.

FORWARDS

NEWARK, NJ - FEBRUARY 20: New Jersey Devils left wing Nikita Gusev (97) skates during the National Hockey League game between the New Jersey Devils and the San Jose Sharks on February 20, 2020 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Jeff Skinner, LW, Buffalo

After burying 40 goals in 2018-2019, Skinner crashed to just 14 goals and 23 points in 59 games in 2019-2020. However, he remains an elite shot generator with more than three shots on goal per game in every season since his second year in the league and that can turn around results in a hurry once the percentages pendulum swings. The Sabres have added talent to their top six up front, bringing in Hall and Eric Staal, so Skinner should benefit from having more skill around him in the lineup.

Nikita Gusev, LW, New Jersey

It took some time for Gusev to transition from the KHL to the NHL last season and he had 14 points in his first 29 games. But from mid-December on, shortly after the Devils made a coaching change, Gusev saw his ice time increase and he produced 30 points in 37 games. He should be poised to play a prominent role for the Devils right from the start of this season.

Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal

The playmaking pivot showed well in his rookie season, putting up 41 points in 71 games, but his work in the postseason should elevate expectations. With their season on the line, the Habs leaned even more on Suzuki and he had seven points and 27 shots on goal while playing more than 19 minutes per game in 10 playoff games. If Suzuki gets that kind of ice time from the start of this season, he should see a spike in production.

Robert Thomas, RW, St. Louis

The third year Blues winger has been on an upward trajectory and he produced 26 points in 33 games after Christmas last season. With Vladimir Tarasenko expected to miss much of this season, the opportunity is there for Thomas to take on an even bigger offensive role.

Denis Gurianov, RW, Dallas

While the 23-year-old winger was the only 20-goal scorer on the Stars last season, he also managed just nine assists and ranked 11^th among Dallas forwards in average time on ice. Even if Gurianov doesn’t score on more than 15% of his shots again he has the potential for increased production just based on the possibility of receiving more ice time because he’s too good to be limited to 13 minutes per game.

Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey

It’s hard to fly under the radar as a first overall pick but Hughes’ value is surely depressed after a rookie season in which he slumped at the end with one assist in his last 14 games, finishing with 21 points in 61 games. But there are also reasons to be optimistic about Hughes’ chances heading into his sophomore campaign. The first is that his percentages have to get better. Hughes had a shooting percentage of 5.7% and an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.1%; both very low. The second is that Hughes is outstanding at transporting the puck, with control, from the defensive zone into the offensive zone. If he can still do that and the percentages start to fall his way, Hughes’ production could take off.

Kevin Labanc, RW, San Jose

Even after getting an extra couple of minutes of ice time per game last season, Labanc saw his point total fall from 56 points in 82 games in 2018-2019 to just 33 points in 70 games last season. Despite creating a lot of opportunities during 5-on-5 play last season, Labanc’s percentages dropped significantly from the previous season. He should have an important enough role in San Jose to have it pay off if the percentages flip again.

Cam Atkinson, RW, Columbus

The veteran winger went from a career-high 41 goals and 69 points in 2018-2019 to 12 goals and 26 points in 44 games last season. He still generated more than three shots on goal per game for the third straight season and remains a part of Columbus’ first power play unit. He also had career low shooting and on-ice shooting percentages so a healthy Atkinson will be set for a bounce-back performance this season.

Kirby Dach, C, Chicago

The third overall pick in 2019, Dach was fine as a rookie, contributing 23 points in 64 games but his play in the bubble should increase anticipation for what he might accomplish in his second season. Not only did Dach produce six points in nine playoff games but he averaged 19:24 of ice time per game, a boost of more than five minutes per game over the regular season. Part of that boost was finding a role on Chicago’s top power play unit so Dach could be ready to provide significant secondary offense. (Editors Note: Kirby Dach suffered an injury in the World Junior Championship and is likely t miss much, if not all, of the season)

Vincent Trocheck, C, Carolina

Since suffering a broken ankle in November of 2018, Trocheck has produced 58 points in 99 games. That after producing 88 points in the 99 games that he had played before suffering that injury. This season may provide a better chance for Trocheck to recapture his form, especially with a Hurricanes team that has tended to dominate shot counts in recent seasons.

Ryan Donato, LW, San Jose

Although he has not had a consistent role since arriving in the league, Donato has been a high-end shot generator and he did score a career-high 14 goals while playing 10:38 per game for the Wild last season. The move to San Jose brings a real opportunity for Donato to get more ice time and, with quality linemates, Donato could surprise.

Paul Stastny, C, Winnipeg

Stastny will be 35 years old by the time next season starts, which isn’t the ideal time to go picking someone for a bounce-back season. The value here is in expecting his production to recover from a season in which he finished with 38 points, his lowest in a season in which he played at least 50 games. His on-ice shooting percentage of 6.9% last season was the second lowest of his career so it’s not that difficult to imagine Stastny returning to Winnipeg, where he had great production in a small sample late in the 2017-2018 season, and finding finishers who can help boost his point production.

DEFENSE

TORONTO, ON - NOVEMBER 05: Los Angeles Kings Defenceman Sean Walker (26) skates with the puck during the NHL regular season game between the Los Angeles Kings and the Toronto Maple Leafs on November 5, 2019, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

P.K. Subban, New Jersey

It’s not like Subban could ever be forgotten but he did have a career-low 18 points in 68 games last season. However, the main issue is that he struggled on the power play and the Devils gave Sami Vatanen and Damon Severson significant time on the point with the man advantage. If Subban can get back to producing on the power play he could once again be a difference maker.

Tyson Barrie, Edmonton

The move to Toronto did not start out well for Barrie, who managed seven points in 23 games before the Maple Leafs fired head coach Mike Babcock. A new coach offered Barrie more freedom and he produced a much more typical 32 points in 47 games the rest of the way. He moves to Edmonton, where the Oilers need a power play quarterback because of Oscar Klefbom’s injury. Playing a critical role on the league’s best power play is a great place for Barrie to re-establish his value.

Erik Gustafsson, Philadelphia

A quality puck-moving defenseman who has produced 27 power play points in the past two seasons, Gustafsson did see his total points drop from 60 points in 2018-2019 to 29 last season, which is part of the reason that he may be a fantasy bargain. Gustafsson should be looking at a big role on a Philadelphia blueline that can use him in a top four role after Matt Niskanen retired.

Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston

The departure of Torey Krug to St. Louis leaves a spot open on Boston’s top power play unit and McAvoy, the Bruins’ best defenseman, could be the beneficiary. In his first three NHL seasons, McAvoy has contributed 1.23 points/60 during 5-on-5 play, which ranks 12th among defensemen (between Gustafsson and Barrie) so he has the offensive chops to handle the job.

Rasmus Andersson, Calgary

The Flames have overhauled their blueline and Andersson appears set to take on an even bigger role than the one he played last season when he logged nearly 20 minutes per game. He’s also probably due for an uptick in on-ice shooting percentage from last season’s 6.2% giving him a chance to make a more notable offensive contribution.

Sean Walker, Los Angeles

Drew Doughty is ahead of Walker on the Kings first power play unit, which does put a limit on the upside of the third-year defender, but Walker is capable of generating shots and contributed 24 points in 70 games despite an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.9% last season.

GOALIES

EDMONTON, AB - DECEMBER 14: Edmonton Oilers Goalie Mikko Koskinen (19) makes a blocker save in the second period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Toronto Maple Leads on December 14, 2019 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB.(Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

Mikko Koskinen, Edmonton

The Oilers are playing to win now and if they are intent on being competitive, Koskinen is the goaltender that gives them the best chance. He wasn’t very effective in four playoff appearances last year but he was above average in 38 regular season games, which should give him the edge on Mike Smith for the starter’s job and if Koskinen is starting for an Oilers team that should be a playoff team, he can be a rather useful fantasy netminder. That he hasn’t yet established a great reputation, as a 32-year-old who has played just 97 career NHL games, is an advantage in this case as Koskinen should be relatively inexpensive on draft day.

Frederik Andersen, Toronto

From 2016-2017 through 2018-2019, the Maple Leafs netminder won 107 games while posting a .918 save percentage, rating well above average. Last season wasn’t quite at that level. Andersen still won 29 of 52 starts but his .909 save percentage was a little below average and it’s that dip in save percentage, coupled with Andersen getting outdueled by Columbus’ goaltenders in the play-in series, that should make Andersen a little more cost friendly for what he can provide. He still has a contending team in front of him and if he bounces back to previous form, Andersen will have a chance to provide a great return on investment.

S-Pekka-Tacular – Nashville Predators 2018-19 Season Preview

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 18:10:56 +0000

REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – The Nashville Predators went all the way to the Stanley Cup Final in 2016-2017 and looked like a serious contender again for 2017-18. A lot certainly went right for them in the regular season. While they had no player reach the 30-goal or 65-point milestones, they still finished seventh in goals scored with seven players chipping in at least 15 goals and 13 players reaching double-digits.

Pekka Rinne also put forth a superb effort to capture the Vezina Trophy for the first time in his career after some near misses. The end result was that the Nashville Predators captured the Presidents’ Trophy with 117 points. Like the other recent winners of the Presidents’ Trophy though, playoff success didn’t follow. It wasn’t a disaster, but after besting Colorado in six games, the Predators were defeated by the Winnipeg Jets in seven games.

SO LONG, AND THANKS FOR ALL THE FISH – Mike Fisher came out of retirement late in the 2016-17 campaign to join the Nashville Predators for one last run. Unfortunately, it didn’t result in the former captain being able to cap his lengthy career with a Stanley Cup championship, but it was an opportunity for Predators fans to say one final goodbye. Though perhaps someday he’ll be back in a coaching capacity, as Predators bench boss Peter Laviolette has tried to persuade him to do.

Beyond Fisher’s departure, they also lost defenseman Alexei Emelin, who averaged a modest 16:53 minutes. In his place is Dan Hamhuis, who agreed to a two-year, $2.5 million contract with Nashville after recording 24 points and averaging 20:11 minutes in Dallas last season. Scott Hartnell is also gone after being limited to 12:01 minutes per game and that role might be partially filled by Zac Rinaldo, should he make the team after agreeing to a two-way contract.

While the Predators are going into the season with largely the same team though, there were some noteworthy re-signings over the summer. Juuse Saros inked a three-year, $4.5 million contract and has the opportunity to transition into the starting role given that Rinne will turn 36-years-old in November and is entering the final season of his contract. Meanwhile, Ryan Ellis was signed to an eight-year, $50 million contract that begins in 2019-20. Of Nashville’s defensive core of PK Subban, Mattias Ekholm, Roman Josi, and Ellis, only Ellis’ contract is set to expire before the summer of 2022 (Ellis’ deal is up in the summer of 2020).

Pekka Rinne

WAS CHANGE NECESSARY? – The Predators already had the reigning Vezina Trophy-winner, a young backup goaltender that’s showing promise as a future starter, and a defensive core that’s the envy of most of the league. The only thing the Predators really lack is star power up front and the importance of that is debatable.

Nashville showed that it was more than capable of generating offense by committee last season and there is some reason to believe that that same group might do better this time around. Filip Forsberg was limited to 67 games while Ryan Johansen had his lowest points per game pace since 2012-13, so the Predators might get more out of both of them this season. Viktor Arvidsson also has some potential upside left after back-to-back 61-point campaigns.

The Predators will also have a full season with Kyle Turris after he was acquired on Nov. 5, 2017. While the difference from having Turris at the start of the campaign versus November might not be huge, it is another moderate change to the Predators’ advantage and all those potential factors do start to add up.

The other thing that the Predators have going for them is that they’re still a relatively young team. Rinne’s age was mentioned above, but he’s the only member of Nashville’s core that’s even reached the age of 30. Nashville’s window is still very much open so there are plenty of reasons why the Predators don’t need to rock the boat right now.

OUTLOOK – Nashville is entering the season as a serious Stanley Cup contender once again. There are a few other powerhouse teams in that group, but Nashville stands apart from many of them by drawing its strength by stellar defensemen and goaltending rather than amazing top-end forwards. That doesn’t make the Predators better or worse than those teams by itself, but it does give Nashville a bit of a different flavor from the other potential juggernauts as the campaign begins.

Fantasy Hockey Mailbag — Merry Christmas!

Scott Wheeler — Mon, 22 Dec 2014 22:41:50 +0000

With just a few days to go until Christmas arrives, fantasy hockey questions are still pouring in from all over the place. Again, every week we take your questions and the goal is to never back down no matter how challenging the inquiry may be. No one likes to be the bearer of bad news but sometimes that is just how it is.

This week we have a couple more of these fantasy questions that test our minds. If you are ready then I am as well. Let's go for gold here!

Fantasy Hockey Mailbag

Okay so I am able to keep six keepers but I need to package a deal for an elite goaltender. My keepers are Perry, Schneider, Eberle, Yandle, Duchene, MacKinnon, Hedman, Subban, Toews, and Kopitar. Just what do I do on both accounts? -- Craig Belanger

These are fun questions though most would view them as tough or difficult. The attempt to try and distinguish can be maddening but it can also be a satisfying experience. Why? Decisions like this eat up too much of your time in fantasy hockey. I see it every single day and you can tell when it is really grinding someone's gears.

When you look at the choices here, it actually reads like a who's who of top ten or twenty players or so. That may be a slight exaggeration but these are all top players at their respective positions (at least top ten or 15). When you realistically look at all these players, the across the board numbers just make it tougher and tougher.

However, there are clear cut choices that can be made. One assertion is that Cory Schneider is not an elite goaltender right now because of the mess of a team he plays on currently. New Jersey is not going anywhere and the train could ride off the rails even further. Someone might try to take him in a sell low scenario though. Package him with the right players and maybe you can strike top five goaltender gold.

Could you package a Schneider with Hedman to get a top goalie? Yes you might. However, you may have to sweeten the pot with a Perry to do it. These trades take skill and no doubt you will regret giving someone up. In the long run, a fantasy hockey GM has to think longer term. I might also package Kopitar, Yandle, and Eberle for a top tiered netminder also.

My six keepers would be Perry, Subban, Hedman, Kopitar, Duchene, and MacKinnon. Good luck! Hey we have time for that second question.

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So Calvin Pickard has been having an amazing week, what do you do with him now?

He is a good goalie and I do not doubt that. However, seeing these numbers come in and the frequent 30+ save totals combined with the workload do worry me a bit. His "Goalie DNA" says he can handle it but Colorado has little margin for error. Semyon Varlamov is bound to come back eventually and take back his job anyway. With a window that is closing by the day, an owner has a chance to get something for Pickard he never ever expected to. Think of how often a waiver pick can be turned into an asset. It does not happen very often.

You can keep playing him until Varlamov returns and then go digging into the waiver wire to try and get lucky again or maybe you trade him for another player now. There are enough fantasy hockey general managers out there dying for a quick fix and they will PAY for it! As the saying goes, aim high first and then come down in price. Remember to do this fast because other owners will pick up on this strategy and fast!

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Good luck everyone and thanks for reading. Merry Christmas and see you next week!