Paul Cotter – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – NEW JERSEY DEVILS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 15:47:56 +0000

PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 27: New Jersey Devils left wing Jesper Bratt (63) waits for play to begin during the game between the New Jersey Devils and the Philadelphia Flyers on January 27, 2025, at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire)

The Devils managed to get back into the playoffs, finishing the season with 91 points (42-33-7), but they lost in five games to the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round. Star centre Jack Hughes was injured and did not play after March 2nd and Luke Hughes was injured in the first game against Carolina in the playoffs, missing the rest of the series. The Devils were a quality puck possession team, ranking eighth in Corsi percentage (51.8) and 10th in expected goals percentage (51.7). Their power play ranked third in the league with 9.66 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play and their penalty killing ranked fourth with 5.70 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play. That is a solid statistical profile and with Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen representing a significant improvement in goal, the Devils were a playoff team despite dealing with some major injuries.

What’s Changed?

The Devils were not overly active in the offseason, doing some tinkering, but keeping their core intact. New Jersey signed Edmonton Oilers right winger Connor Brown and Dallas Stars winger Evgenii Dadonov as free agents, and it appears that Russian winger Arseni Gritsyuk is going to make the move to New Jersey after scoring 44 points (17 G, 27 A) in 49 KHL games for SKA St. Petersburg last season. Centre Erik Haula was traded to the Nashville Predators, right winger Nathan Bastian signed a deal with the Dallas Stars, and left winger Tomas Tatar signed with EV Zug in Switzerland. Defenceman Brian Dumoulin inked a free agent deal with the Los Angeles Kings and checking centre Curtis Lazar signed with the Edmonton Oilers. Defenceman Johnathan Kovacevic is recovering from knee surgery and may not be ready for the start of the season, but the Devils are relatively deep on the blueline and should be able to handle his absence.

What would success look like?

The Devils have the makings of a legitimate contender, especially now that they have a strong goaltending tandem, but the key is keeping Jack Hughes healthy. Hughes is a game-breaking talent and, while the Devils returning to the postseason would be a baseline for success, if they have Hughes, there is a chance that they can go on a deeper run. As it is, they have won one playoff round since they reached the Stanley Cup Final against the Los Angeles Kings in 2012.

What could go wrong?

Injuries have been a problem for the Devils, and Jack Hughes and defenceman Dougie Hamilton missed significant time last season, and yet the team was still good enough to reach the playoffs. On one hand, that should show how they can overcome adversity, but it also reveals, through a 91-point season, that they were fortunate to get into the playoffs, so they are still dealing with a small margin between making and not making the postseason.

Top Breakout Candidate

A 24-year-old winger who has steadily improved throughout his career in Russia, Arseni Gritsyuk should have a legitimate chance to play in a top nine role with the Devils, with some power play time sprinkled in as well. He may not have an enormous impact, but on a veteran team with hopes of contending, there are not a lot of unproven options looking for the chance to break out with a big season.

FORWARDS

Jack Hughes

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	32	60	92	1.19

When healthy, Hughes is one of the few players in the league with legitimate MVP hopes. Across the past four seasons, he has accumulated 299 points (123 G, 176 A) in 251 games and his 1.19 points per game ranks 12th – behind Mikko Rantanen and ahead of Sidney Crosby – among skaters to appear in at least 200 games. On top of that, he is an excellent play driver who has a 55.8 percent Corsi in the past three seasons. While he may not be the picture of the prototypical checking center, Hughes is very effective defensively. He is a brilliant and creative offensive player who, at his best, can generate scoring chances like few others in the league. The elephant in the room is that he has been unable to stay healthy. He played 78 games in 2022-2023, recording a career high 99 points (43 G, 56 A), but he has missed 20 games in each of the past two seasons and missed 33 games in 2021-2022. He is still just 24-years-old, but that is a lot of missed time early in his career. He is also abysmal on faceoffs, winning a career best 37.6 percent of his draws last season. All told, Hughes is a very dynamic player who gives the Devils a chance to be a contender, provided he is in the lineup. The uncertainty in that regard requires tempered optimism when it comes to his projections for 2025-2026, Hughes could miss significant time, say 15 games, and still produce 30 goals and 80 points.

Jesper Bratt

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	25	62	87	1.06

A premier offensive threat on the wing, Bratt recorded a career-high 88 points (21 G, 67 A) last season and has 317 points (106 G, 211 A) in 321 games across the past four seasons. He has game-breaking speed that allows him to quickly attack in transition, and he uses a wide base to effectively protect the puck, especially in the offensive zone. Bratt’s shot rate dropped from 3.02 shots per game in 2023-2024 to 2.22 shots per game in 2024-2025, which is not ideal because he has a legitimately quick release that can allow him to score from distance, but he was distributing the puck enough to finish fifth in the league with 67 assists, behind only Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon, Mitch Marner, and Connor McDavid. He ended up getting one fifth-place Hart Trophy vote and while that might be a tad optimistic, in terms of evaluating his play, it does reflect a player who has become a star with the Devils. While Bratt had a few strong defensive seasons earlier in his career, his recent defensive play has been less effective, allowing more chances against, but his offensive game has exploded so much that it more than overcomes the decline in his defensive effectiveness. It is reasonable to expect something in the range of a point per game for Bratt, so 80-plus points is a possibility again in 2025-2026.

Nico Hischier

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	34	42	76	0.99

New Jersey’s captain continues to deliver reliable results and Hischier scored a career-high 35 goals while playing a career-high 20:23 per game last season. He finished fourth in Selke voting, marking the second time in the past three seasons that he has earned a top five finish. He has the credentials as a top two-way center, who gives the Devils an elite 1-2 combination down the middle of the ice when Hughes is healthy. Across the past three seasons, Hischier has taken 4,818 faceoffs, ranking second in the NHL, behind only Sidney Crosby (5,500) and he has won 55.3 percent of those draws, ranking 18th out of the 88 centers to take at least 2,000 faceoffs in that time. Hischier’s most common linemates last season were Timo Meier, Stefan Noesen, and Dawson Mercer, and he controlled better than 55 percent of the expected goals during five-on-five play with the first two. Hischier is a play driver so his line combination should not play a huge part in the direction that the puck is moving, but if Meier is a sure thing on the left side, the right winger can help determine how much offensive upside the line will have. With at least 60 points in four straight seasons, Hischier seems a good bet to score 30 goals and 70 points in 2025-2026.

Timo Meier

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	30	26	56	0.73

A physically strong winger who can play a power game, Meier has surpassed 25 goals in each of the past four seasons. He has also recorded at least 140 hits in three of the past four seasons, and he tends to have success along the boards because of how strong he is on the puck. As a result, Meier is an excellent shot generator, even if not quite at the same level in New Jersey as he was during his peak seasons in San Jose. Meier is especially effective during five-on-five play. In the past three seasons, he has generated 1.09 individual expected goals per 60 minutes, which ranks sixth among the 302 forwards that have played at least 2,000 five-on-five minutes in those three seasons. Despite consistently generating high-quality scoring chances, Meier has only scored on 9.15 percent of his shots in those three seasons, which ranks 211th, so there is room for improvement if his finishing ability catches up to his ability to get into scoring position. Playing with Hischier is a good place for Meier, skating alongside a productive center who can drive play and that ensures that Meier is often in position to score. Even taking into account his less than stellar finish around the net, 30 goals and 55-60 points should be within Meier’s grasp in 2025-2026.

Dawson Mercer

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	23	19	42	0.51

Mercer has played every game in his four NHL seasons, but his offensive production has tailed off in the past two seasons. He had career highs of 27 goals and 56 points in 2022-2023 and managed 19 goals and 36 points last season. That’s not exactly the ideal trend for the now 23-year-old forward who does have the courage to get to the net in an effort to score. He doesn’t generate shots at a high enough rate, and his defensive results have been mixed, but he does have enough offensive ability and the versatility to move up and down the lineup and even capable of playing center and wing. Mercer’s most common linemate last season was Timo Meier and they were on the right side of shots and chances, and downright dominant in goal differential, with 24 goals for and nine goals against (72.7 GF%) during five-on-five play. The next two most common were Erik Haula and Nico Hischier, and forecasting Mercer’s future production tends to depend on which linemates he has in 2025-2026. The risk that Mercer might be outside of New Jersey’s top six forwards, potentially centering the third line, does put a possible limit on his scoring upside, but 20 goals and 40 points should be a reasonable expected range.

Ondrej Palat

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	12	16	28	0.37

A reliable veteran winger, Palat played in 77 games last season. The last season in which he played more games was his rookie season in 2013-2014. At the same time, he averaged just 13:45 of ice time per game, his lowest average time on ice since playing 11:44 per game while playing 14 games in 2012-2013. For years, Palat was a strong two-way winger, but last season showed statistical decline at both ends of the rink. Last season was the first time in his career that Palat was outscored during five-on-five play and his 0.36 points per game was his lowest since 2012-2013. While his individual production is not impressive, that’s also not primarily what the Devils are looking for from Palat. He played mostly with Hughes and Bratt, two of the most dangerous offensive forwards on the roster and Palat provides a defensive conscience for that line. He’s also a quality penalty killer but does not get enough time to make a real impact in those situations. Nevertheless, Palat is likely to see a regular role in New Jersey’s top six, playing a complementary role, and can be expected to contribute maybe a dozen goals and 30 points during the 2025-2026 season.

Evgeni Dadonov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
71	15	17	32	0.45

A 36-year-old winger, Dadonov hit the 20-goal threshold last season for the fifth time in his career; this despite averaging 13:32 of ice time per game, his lowest since averaging 10:03 per game for Florida in 2011-2012. Even in what was a relative depth role with the Dallas Stars last season, Dadonov used his skills and offensive instincts to generate chances. He’s older now, so maybe not quite as dynamic as he was during his best seasons with Florida, but Dadonov has a refined game that allows him to contribute at both ends of the rink, even if it’s in a lesser role. This makes him an interesting addition for the Devils because Dadonov might be a player who contributes while playing a limited role near the bottom of the depth chart, but he also could slide into a role in the top six, even if just for short bursts, because he has the skill level to fit alongside the more gifted players on the roster. Given his age and where he is in his career, expectations should be modest, so maybe Dadonov could add a dozen goals and 30 points to the Devils in 2025-2026.

Stefan Noesen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	17	21	38	0.48

After so many years of battling just to stay in the lineup or, in some cases, in the NHL, Noesen landed some security when he signed as a free agent with the Devils last summer. He responded by putting up career highs in goal (22) and points (41) while playing a career high 15:56 per game. He is not the strongest skater, but Noesen plays hard, going to the net without fear and battling effectively in corners. His blue-collar game has earned Noesen some respect but also landed him a net-front position on the Devils power play and he tallied 11 goals with the man advantage last season. Noesen is a relative late bloomer but has established that he can be a strong puck possession player and that can play no matter where Noesen is skating in the lineup. His most common linemates last season were Nico Hischier and Timo Meier, followed by Paul Cotter and Erik Haula. Naturally, he was more successful with Hischier and Meier, so it would be ideal to stay in that spot, but if he gets supplanted there, Noesen can still be a contributor even if he is in the lower half of the depth chart. As such, a reasonable expectation for Noesen this season could be around 15 goals and 35 points.

Paul Cotter

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	12	7	19	0.25

Acquired from Vegas last summer, in a deal that sent Alexander Holtz and Akira Schmid to the Golden Knights, Cotter had career highs with 16 goals and 245 hits in his first season for the Devils. That is the best version of Cotter, an active physical presence who can add a little offensively. Among the 378 forwards to play at least 500 five-on-five minutes last season, Cotter ranked 69th with 0.93 goals per game. With NHL teams getting more interested in stockpiling physical players who can handle the rough going, especially in the playoffs, Cotter does appear to fit that mold, even if it’s in a lesser role. While Cotter clearly has offensive limitations, and was not a big scorer in junior with the London Knights of the Ontario Hockey League, where he had 26 points (9 G, 17 A) in 48 games, or even with Henderson in the American Hockey League, where he had 50 points (24 G, 26 A) in 97 games, he does have soft hands and has scored some highlight-reel goals in transition. The Devils have better forward depth and that could allow Cotter to remain relatively productive. It’s fair to expect Cotter to contribute at least a dozen goals and 25 points, along with 200-plus hits during the 2025-2026 season.

DEFENSE

Dougie Hamilton

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	8	35	43	0.66

A smooth-skating 6-foot-6 defenceman that can handle the puck is a rare commodity, and Hamilton brings all of those assets to the Devils. When he’s healthy, he is very effective, moves the puck well, and excels at getting shots on net, but injuries have plagued him, with significant time missed in four of his past six seasons. Hamilton’s defensive play has slipped in recent years, which cuts into his overall effectiveness, but he’s so outstanding offensively that his offensive impacts outweigh his defensive impacts, sometimes by a large margin. Across the past three seasons, Hamilton ranks ninth among defencemen with 1.41 points per 60 minutes during five-on-five play, second in shot attempts per 60 minutes (17.92), and first in shots on goal per 60 minutes (8.24). During five-on-four play, he ranked third in shots on goal per 60 minutes (12.63), so it doesn’t really matter what the situation is, Hamilton is ready to shoot. Those credentials make him a valuable defenceman, yet also one whose name is starting to get brought up in potential trades, even though he has a no-movement clause, because there are rumblings about the Devils trying to acquire Quinn Hughes from Vancouver to complete their set of Hughes brothers. In any case, until that time comes, Hamilton will be a major part of the Devils’ attack and even if he was to miss around 20 games this season, he could still produce a dozen goals and 45-50 points. If Hamilton happens to stay healthy, 60-plus points remains possible for him.

Luke Hughes

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	8	44	52	0.68

Even though his 2024-2025 season started late while he recovered from a shoulder injury, and he managed just a couple of assists in his first 13 games, Hughes had a strong finish to end the season with 44 points (7 G, 37 A) in 71 games. When Hamilton was injured late in the season, Hughes stepped up and contributed 16 points (2 G, 14 A) in 16 games then suffered another shoulder injury in the playoffs. Through two-plus seasons, Hughes has shown plenty of potential, but is also not a finished product, either. He can handle the puck and skates well, but even though he has good size, listed at 6-foot-2, 198 pounds, Hughes does not play a physical brand of hockey. In the past two seasons, there are 268 defencemen that have played at least 500 minutes in all situations and only five defencemen (one of whom is his brother, Quinn Hughes) have averaged fewer hits per 60 minutes than Luke Hughes’ 0.79 hits per 60. While he is still early in what figures to be a long and productive NHL career, Hughes’ offensive upside is limited by Hamilton’s presence, because he will quarterback the top power play unit. He also has room to improve his defensive game, but he’s young enough that he can reasonably be expected to get better. Nevertheless, Hughes has surpassed 40 points in each of his first two NHL seasons and should be able to do it again this season.

Brett Pesce

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
73	3	13	16	0.22

A veteran blueliner who has a greater real-world impact compared to his fantasy impact on the game, Pesce had four seasons in Carolina in which he finished with 25-30 points. However, his last season in Carolina brought 13 points and last season, his first in New Jersey, brought 17 points (3 G, 14 A). Pesce is a steady top four defender who has averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game for nine consecutive seasons. He’s a strong skater who uses excellent positioning to control the game when he’s on the ice. Pesce had a Corsi percentage of 52.3 percent last season and that was his lowest since his rookie season in 2015-2016, so the puck tends to move the right way when he is on the ice, and he recorded 138 blocked shots last season, his most since 2016-2017. Pesce played most often with Luke Hughes last season, providing the defensive backbone that freed Hughes up to take more chances offensively. Since the Devils have several options ahead of Pesce to handle the more offensive aspects, it’s fair to expect maybe 20 points from him during the 2025-2026 season.

Simon Nemec

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
33	3	9	12	0.36

The second pick in the 2022 Draft, Nemec endured a difficult 2024-2025 season, playing just 27 games for the Devils during the regular season, spending more time in the American Hockey League, where he accrued 23 points (5 G, 18 A) in 34 games. After showing potential as a rookie in 2023-2024, Nemec got off to a slow start last season, resulting in his demotion to the AHL, but he played well there and returned just before the break for the Four Nations Face-Off. Even upon returning to the Devils, Nemec struggled on his way to a 44.2 percent Corsi while getting outscored 17-8 during five-on-five play. Inserted into the playoff lineup after Luke Hughes was injured in Game 1 against Carolina, Nemec was more effective in the four games that he played and scored the game-winning goal in double overtime of Game 3. Nemec has offensive potential just waiting to be tapped but is going to have to earn his way into the lineup to even get that chance. The Devils have a lot of proven NHL veterans ready to go, so Nemec is not going to be gifted his spot. He has the chance to be a quality NHL defencemen, but after some struggles, Nemec is now in a position where he is going to have to prove that he belongs and while that’s possible, it does acknowledge that he has some hurdles to overcome. If he is in the NHL for a full season, 25-30 points would be a reasonable expectation, and if he plays most of the games, that alone would count as progress.

Goal

Jacob Markstrom

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
50	27	16	4	5	.905	2.55

The New Jersey Devils haven't strung together two consecutive playoff berths since 2010 - which, coincidentally, marked the end of their thirteen-year postseason streak at the hands (or goaltending glove) of Martin Brodeur. It makes sense, then, that the team took a look at the trio they brought to the crease last year - veteran starter Jacob Markström, veteran tandem/backup Jake Allen, and newly graduated prospect Nico Daws - and decided they weren't going to change a thing.

They'll have some tough decisions to make in the crease next offseason, with Daws due for a contract extension in the offseason and 2021 draftee Jakub Malek finally making his way to North America this year. Their minor league crease was already a bit crowded this year, with prospect Tyler Brennan spending his entire year in the ECHL, and neither Allen nor Markström will see their contracts up for at least a few more years. But for the upcoming season, at least, they'll have the reliability of Markström - who proved last year that he's still capable of getting the job done - and the veteran presence of Allen, both of whom have plenty of playoff experience and time spent around far tougher fanbases. The only question, at this point, is how many NHL games Daws gets to experience before the year is up.

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Ovechkin, McDavid in the hunt for Gretzky’s records – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 28 Dec 2024 19:45:13 +0000

I remember almost a decade ago writing about the possibility of Alex Ovechkin someday breaking Wayne Gretzky’s goal record. It wasn’t in the context of a prediction that it would happen, but instead, it was about it was about what would need to happen for it to be possible. While Ovechkin surpassing Gretzky seems all but inevitable at this point, it’s taken remarkably good health -- his time missed this campaign due to a fractured fibula notwithstanding -- and complete defiance of Father Time in the back half of his career to make this possible.

Ovechkin never had a campaign like Gretzky enjoyed in his prime, but Gretzky fell hard in his 30s from a goal-scoring perspective, never hitting the 40-goal milestone after the 1990-91 campaign and collecting 176 goals over his last 562 career appearances after accumulating a jaw-dropping 718 markers over his first 925 games.

However you slice it, surpassing Gretzky’s goal record is still incredible and something that would have seemed impossible for anyone when Ovechkin started his NHL career. It made me wonder, though, if Gretzky’s goal record can be overcome, is there a world in which his all-time points record could be bested too?

Gretzky was an even more dominant playmaker than a goal scorer and finished with 2,857 points. To date, no one else has even crossed the 2,000 mark with Jaromir Jagr coming the closest at 1,921. Still, we seem to be in a new age of elite forwards. From 1996-97 through 2021-22, no player recorded 130 points in a single season. In 2022-23, Connor McDavid ended that by scoring 64 goals and 153 points, and then Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon and McDavid all finished with over 130 points last year -- 144, 140 and 132, respectively.

It remains to be seen if anyone will breach this mark again in 2024-25, but MacKinnon (14 goals, 60 points in 37 games), Leon Draisaitl (24, 52 in 34) and Mikko Rantanen (20, 53 in 37) all have a shot. I also wouldn’t rule out McDavid breaching that milestone for the third straight year. Although he’s behind the pack with 15 goals and 49 points through 31 outings, McDavid has found his rhythm by providing 12 goals and 39 points over his past 20 contests.

So could any of them match Gretzky? Although it’s anticlimactic, the answer is almost certainly not. McDavid is the most interesting of them, but even in his case, he’s at 350 goals and 1,031 points in his age-28 season. By the end of Gretzky’s age-28 campaign, he already had 637 goals and 1,837 points. Like Ovechkin did, perhaps McDavid will enjoy greater longevity than Gretzky, but even then, the gap is too great. Let’s assume McDavid produces at a 120-point pace over the next 13 campaigns, including 2024-25. Even in that extremely unlikely scenario, that would leave McDavid with 2,542 points -- more than 300 shy of Gretzky.

No active player is in a better position than McDavid either. MacKinnon and Kucherov are both older than McDavid and have fewer career points. The Great One’s points record appears safe for at least another generation. Still, if McDavid does stay fairly healthy and continues to perform at an elite level into his late 30s, then a run at 2,000 points might be viable. That alone would be one of the greatest achievements in hockey history.

It's also arguably harder to score now than it was in Gretzky’s day. When Gretzky set the record with 215 points in a single season in 1985-86, the league average in goals per team per game was 3.97. The best McDavid’s ever seen by that metric is 3.14 in 2022-23 (it’s down to 3.03 this year). Just for the fun of it, let’s do some back-of-the-napkin calculations to attempt to normalize McDavid and Gretzky’s offensive contributions relative to their era. Do not take this seriously as these are some incredibly simplified calculations, but I’ve regressed or enhanced the scoring of each player for each season by a percentage equal to the gap between that campaign’s league average from 3.00 goals per team per game. For example, Gretzky’s 137 points in 1979-80 when the league was scoring at a rate of 3.51 becomes 117 points.

This little experiment is unquestionably to McDavid’s benefit. I was just interested to see if taking this extremely raw approach would be enough to close the gap. The answer is that Gretzky still wins handily. Even under those circumstances, Gretzky would have recorded 1,304 points over his first nine campaigns, including six consecutive campaigns of at least 150 points from 1981-82 through 1986-87. Gretzky’s 215-point campaign is brought down to 162 points, but that still tops anything that McDavid has done, whose 153-point campaign is lessened to 146 points. For McDavid’s part, he has 993 points over his first nine campaigns (running through 2023-24) under this adjusted standard.

Gretzky’s career point total would also still stand at 2,392 (keep in mind, league scoring did begin diminishing in the latter half of Gretzky’s career, so that period wasn’t diminished as much by these calculations as his early seasons), making it difficult for McDavid to overcome.

That goes to show how good Gretzky was, even when compared against the biggest star of his generation, McDavid. There is one record McDavid could realistically take from Gretzky, though: The all-time points total in an Oilers jersey. Gretzky accumulated 1,669 points during his time with Edmonton, and if McDavid re-signs with Edmonton after his existing contract expires in the summer of 2026, which seems reasonable after the Oilers locked up Draisaitl, then McDavid should be able to eventually become Edmonton’s all-time leading scorer.

Calgary Flames

Tues vs. VAN, Thu vs. UTA, Sat vs. NSH

The Flames have a somewhat light schedule with three games next week, but they’ll spend all that time at home. Calgary will host the Canucks on Tuesday, Utah on Thursday and the Predators on Saturday. Vancouver is having a solid campaign, but Utah and Nashville aren’t currently in a playoff position.

Jonathan Huberdeau has been fantastic in recent weeks, providing six goals and 13 points across his past 10 appearances. I still don’t love him long-term, though. Even after factoring in his hot streak, his 25 points through 34 appearances isn’t special, and while his 13 goals in 2024-25 is more impressive, that’s on the back of a likely unsustainable 21.7 shooting percentage -- his career average is 12.5 -- so I think it’s just a matter of time before his scoring pace slows. With that disclaimer out of the way, he's certainly a nice player to have for now.

Matthew Coronato is also hot, supplying two goals and four assists across his active four-game point streak. Taken with the No. 13 overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, Coronato excelled with AHL Calgary in 2023-24, recording 15 goals and 42 points over 41 appearances, but he’s been somewhat hit-and-miss at the NHL level this campaign, totaling nine goals and 18 points through 29 outings. In a couple of years, Coronato might be a mainstay on fantasy lineups, but for now, he’s more of a streaming option.

If you’re making a short-term play on Coronato, it’d be worth it to consider his linemate, Blake Coleman, too. The 33-year-old Coleman has eight goals and 17 points in 34 outings, but he’s also hot with three goals and six points over his last five games.

Carolina Hurricanes

Tues @ CBJ, Thu @ FLA, Sat vs. MIN, Sun vs. PIT

The Hurricanes have a strong 21-12-1 record, but that’s due to their strong start. More recently, Carolina has been a middling 7-7-1, so the Hurricanes have room for improvement as the calendar turns to 2025. They’ll look to get going on the road against Columbus on Tuesday and Florida on Thursday. Afterward, the Hurricanes will return home to host Minnesota on Saturday and Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Although Carolina has won just one of its last four games, some players have been effective over that stretch. Brent Burns had a goal and an assist in Friday’s 4-2 loss to New Jersey, marking his first multi-point game since Nov. 5. He has three goals and 11 points through 35 appearances, putting him on pace to finish with less than 30 points for just the second time dating back to 2013-14.

Losing his spot on the first power-play unit to Shayne Gostisbehere has significantly hurt him. Burns had 20 of his 43 points with the man advantage in 2023-24, but he has no power-play points this campaign. In terms of 5-on-5 points, he’s probably going to end up roughly in line with his total from last season, so his drop is pretty much entirely driven by that change in his usage. That’s worth keeping in mind in case circumstances result in him getting on the first power-play unit later in the campaign.

Sebastian Aho hasn’t had any problems collecting power-play points, already accumulating 14 of them in 2024-25. He’s also been a reliable contributor, being held off the scoresheet just three times over his past 16 outings (six goals, 19 points). He has 11 markers and 36 points in 35 outings overall. As long as he stays healthy, the 27-year-old should reach the 80-point milestone for the third time in four campaigns.

Jack Roslovic isn’t going to match Aho in terms of total points this season, but Roslovic has been a regular contributor recently. He has recorded a point in four of his past five appearances (one goal, four points). Interestingly, Roslovic has also recorded over 16 minutes in each of Carolina’s past two games, well above his season average of 13:40 of ice time across his first 33 outings. We’ll have to see if he continues to get that kind of workload, or if he regresses back toward his norm.

Colorado Avalanche

Tues vs. WPG, Thu vs. BUF, Sat vs. MTL

The Avalanche have been red hot recently, posting a 7-2-0 record from Dec. 7-22. They’ll look to maintain that strong play next week in home matches against Winnipeg, Buffalo and Montreal on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.

Although injuries were certainly a factor in Colorado’s up-and-down play early in the campaign, goaltending was a major problem. Recently, netminding has been part of Avalanche’s strength. Scott Wedgewood has looked fantastic since joining the Avalanche from Nashville, posting a 1.93 GAA and .932 save percentage across six appearances with Colorado. Similarly, Mackenzie Blackwood has been dominant with the Avalanche with a 3-1-0 record, 2.03 GAA and .931 save percentage in four starts since being acquired from San Jose.

Colorado made a big bet towards the idea that this new combo is everything that they want it to be by inking Blackwood to a five-year, $26.25 million contract extension Friday. That’s a startling commitment to a 28-year-old goaltender with a 3.05 GAA over 219 career appearances. However, the Avalanche’s decision isn’t without merit.

While Blackwood didn’t look nearly as good with the Sharks -- he had a 3.00 GAA and .909 save percentage in 19 appearances before the trade -- he was doing well relative to the team in front of him. His goals saved above expected is plus-5.9 this campaign, per Moneypuck, which is good for 16th place. That suggests he’s been in the upper half of starters in 2024-25 when you separate him from the defense in front of him. It’s a similar story in 2023-24. He had an ugly 3.45 GAA and .899 save percentage in 44 outings with the Sharks, but San Jose was terrible, and Blackwood’s plus-2.4 goals saved above expected last campaign suggests he held his own under very difficult circumstances.

Blackwood was especially good in 2019-20. His 22-14-8 record, 2.77 GAA and .915 save percentage in 47 appearances might not scream dominant, but he ranked fifth in the league in goals saved above expected (plus-7.9) that year. It hasn’t always been good -- he struggled in that metric in 2020-21 and 2021-22, but when his career has been taken as a whole, it’s fair to say that he has been consistently put into difficult circumstances and made the most of them. Now in Colorado, which has been solid defensively, ranking 11th in xGA/60 at 2.93 this season, Blackwood is finally in a position to put up great top-line numbers in addition to solid analytics.

Dallas Stars

Tues vs. BUF, Thu vs. OTT, Sat vs. UTA

Dallas will spend the upcoming week at home, hosting the Sabres on Tuesday, the Senators on Thursday and Utah on Saturday. Of that competition, only Ottawa (18-14-2) entered Friday’s action in possession of a playoff spot.

The Stars have managed to score no more than three goals in any of their past seven games, and they’ve produced two or fewer in five of those contests. Losing Tyler Seguin (hip), potentially for the rest of the regular season, has been felt, but Matt Duchene has also fallen hard from his hot start. After scoring 12 goals and 27 points through 22 outings, the 33-year-old has just a goal and three points over his past 12 appearances. Getting Duchene going again will be critical to the Stars’ long-term success.

At least Jason Robertson has done well lately. His seven goals and 23 points through 34 games is still well below what you’d want to see out of a player of that caliber, but he does have two goals and eight points across his past eight appearances.

Roope Hintz has also found his scoring touch, netting nine goals over his past 16 outings, including four goals in four games from Dec. 16-23. Hopefully, the holiday break didn’t cool him off -- he was held off the scoresheet Friday, though he did record four shots.

The lack of offense has weighed on goaltender Jake Oettinger. He’s held the competition to 16 goals over his past seven appearances but has a mediocre 3-4-0 record over that span due to the lack of support.

New Jersey Devils

Tues @ ANA, Wed @ LAK, Sat @ SJS

The Devils are on the road next week, but the competition is favorable. They’ll play in Anaheim on Tuesday, LA on Wednesday and San Jose on Saturday.

Being on the road hasn’t been much of a problem for the Devils anyway. They have a 12-5-0 away record compared to 12-6-3 at home. Not every player has traveled well, though.

Timo Meier is a great forward to utilize in New Jersey with his eight goals and 18 points through 20 appearances, but he’s been limited to five goals and nine points on the road, so you might want to exercise caution with him next week. Ondrej Palat is a major offensive force in either scenario, but he’s also noticeably better at home (four goals and 10 points in 20 appearances) than on the road (three goals and five points in 17 outings).

On the flip side, Dougie Hamilton has been somewhat quiet in New Jersey with two goals and eight points across 21 outings, but he’s accumulated three goals and 15 points in 17 games during the Devils’ travels. Paul Cotter has held his own on the road too with five goals and nine points over 17 appearances, but his home production stands at just two goals and four points through 21 outings.

Jacob Markstrom is an interesting case. He’s 9-4-0 with a 2.09 GAA on the road and 10-2-2 with a 2.13 GAA at home, so clearly, he provides value in either scenario. However, his save percentage is starkly different at home (.898) compared to the road (.926). The Devils do allow significantly fewer shots at home (23.0) than they do away (27.6), so it seems Markstrom adjusts well to the higher workload, and his save percentage reflects that.

New York Rangers

Mon @ FLA, Thu vs. BOS, Sat @ WSH, Sun @ CHI

The Rangers have been in freefall, dropping 13 of their past 17 games. They’ll try to end the slump next week, starting with a game in Florida on Monday. New York will then host the Bruins on Thursday before playing in Washington on Saturday and in Chicago on Sunday.

If you’re looking for hot skaters, you’ll need to go elsewhere. No Rangers player has amassed more than two points over the team’s past six games. That’s just sad for a team with this much talent. Igor Shesterkin is doing well, posting a 2.63 GAA and a stellar .926 save percentage over his last six outings, but the Rangers have done so poorly offensively, that the 28-year-old netminder has just a 2-4-0 record over that span.

Outside of Shesterkin, is there anything at all here for fantasy managers? If you’re looking for help in other categories, then yes. The Rangers’ slump hasn’t impacted Vincent Trocheck on the draw, for example. He has been among the most dominant centers in that category this year, winning 393 of his 641 opportunities (61.3 percent), including 69 of 117 across (59.0 percent) the Rangers’ anemic past six games. Sam Carrick doesn’t get as many chances on the draw, but he has a 58.3 percent success rate across 283 faceoff opportunities this year and is 39-for-66 (59.1 percent) over the last six contests.

Will Cuylle is also still out there throwing his body around. He ranks fourth in hits with 127 and dished out 15 over the aforementioned six-game span. Trocheck has been even more aggressive in that span with 21 hits, bringing him up to 112 overall, which is good for 12th in the league.

Cuylle was especially good in fantasy earlier in the campaign because he was bringing offense as well as grit. He has been limited to four points (two goals) over his past 11 appearances, so the multi-dimensional aspect of his game is gone, but he has been getting tested on the first power-play unit recently, which is a rarity for him -- he basically wasn’t used with the man advantage at all over the first 16 games of the season -- and perhaps that will help spark him. If nothing else, at least he's bringing something to the table during the Rangers’ team-wide slump, which is more than could be said for some other members of the squad.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Tues vs. NYI, Thu @ NYI, Sat vs. BOS, Sun vs. PHI

The Maple Leafs will begin next week with a home-and-away series against the Islanders on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. They’ll then host Boston on Saturday and the Flyers on Sunday.

Injuries have been a recurring storyline for the Maple Leafs this season, and right now there are two of great importance: Auston Matthews’ upper-body issue and Anthony Stolarz’s knee injury.

Stolarz’s knee problem is the clearer cut of them. He underwent a procedure to remove a loose body from the area on Dec. 18 and will be unavailable until mid-to-late January as a result. That puts more pressure on Joseph Woll, who has unfortunately gone cold at a bad time. Woll has allowed at least three goals in his four starts from Dec. 14-23, though he did hold the struggling Red Wings to two goals on 25 shots Friday. Matt Murray is also getting a chance to help fill the void, and he stopped 24 of 27 shots en route to a 6-3 victory against the struggling Sabres on Dec. 20.

Toronto was in a four-way tie for first in goals allowed per game with 2.55 through Dec. 12 because of how reliable the Woll-Stolarz duo has been for much of this campaign. Toronto has looks more vulnerable in terms of goaltending now, but perhaps the win against Detroit signaled the end of Woll’s cold spell. Even if it hasn’t, Stolarz should be back in the coming weeks.

The greater concern is Matthews. He missed nine straight games from Nov. 5-27 because of knee problems and those issues have pushed him back to the sidelines. By the time next week begins, Matthews will have missed Toronto’s past four games due to the injury, and it’s not clear when he’ll be back.

The priority is to get Matthews healthy for the playoffs, whatever that takes, especially because the 22-12-2 Leafs seem to be able to win even without Matthews. Still, the battle for playoff position in the Atlantic Division is fierce, and even if the absence of Matthews doesn’t cost Toronto many wins, it might still end up playing a role in the difficulty of the Leafs’ first-round matchup.

From a fantasy perspective, this is unfortunately the risk that you take with Matthews. He’s one of the best goal-scorers of his era and perhaps all time, but injuries have been a recurring problem. The 2023-24 campaign was just the second time in his career that he played at least 75 games.

Winnipeg Jets

Mon vs. NSH, Tues @ COL, Thu vs. ANA, Sat vs. DET

The Jets have a good schedule ahead of them. They’ll host Nashville on Monday, play in Colorado on Tuesday and then return home for matches against Anaheim and Detroit on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. Colorado is the only one of those adversaries with a winning record.

At the top, we highlighted just how amazing Wayne Gretzky was by showing just how big the gap is between his totals and McDavid’s potential career finish, even under ideal circumstances for McDavid. In terms of goaltending, the equivalent to Gretzky is arguably Martin Brodeur. In addition to being the all-time winningest goaltender -- no one comes even close to Brodeur’s regular-season total of 691 career victories -- Brodeur won the Vezina Trophy four times and stands as the last back-to-back winner of the trophy in 2007 and 2008.

Connor Hellebuyck might be the next to achieve that incredible feat. He won the award in 2024 after posting a 37-19-4 record, 2.39 GAA and .921 save percentage across 60 regular-season games, and he’s looking even better in 2024-25. Through 28 starts, Hellebuyck has a 22-5-1 record, 2.07 GAA and .927 save percentage. That gives him a clear edge over his closest competitors, Jacob Markstrom (19-6-2, 2.11 GAA and .914 save percentage) and Filip Gustavsson (16-5-3, 2.26 GAA and .922 save percentage). Hellebuyck also won the trophy in 2020, so he’d be just one behind Brodeur overall.

The 31-year-old Hellebuyck has continued to cruise as the campaign progresses, posting a 7-0-1 record, 1.85 GAA and .929 save percentage over his past eight games. It helps that the Jets have given him plenty of support offensively (they rank second in goals per game with 3.69) and are adequate defensively (they rank 15th in xGA/60 at 2.96).

On the offensive side of things, the top line of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi is on fire, supplying nine, eight and seven points, respectively, over the past four games. Connor is having the best campaign among those three overall with 21 goals and 47 points through 36 games, though Scheifele isn’t far behind with 21 goals and 42 points across 36 outings. There has been a bit of inconsistency with this unit in terms of its offensive production, but not to the extent where it’s been a meaningful problem. As long as the trio stays healthy, which was an issue last season, those three should go down as one of the top lines of 2024-25.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Colton, Stolarz, Wolf, and More

Scott Cullen — Sat, 19 Oct 2024 13:00:21 +0000

_{CALGARY, AB - FEBRUARY 20: Calgary Flames Right Wing Jonathan Huberdeau (10) looks on during the second period of an NHL game between the Calgary Flames and the Philadelphia Flyers on February 20, 2023, at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB. (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire)}

Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. Injuries are forcing changes early in the NHL season, and our sights are set on Ross Colton, Anthony Stolarz, the surprising Calgary Flames and more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 With injuries decimating Colorado’s forward lines, the Avalanche have moved Ross Colton up to play on the left wing on Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Colton’s ice time is up nearly five minutes per game compared to last season, which was his career high, and he has five points (4 G, 1 A) with 18 shots on goal and 18 hits in five games. When the Avalanche get players back from injury, it is more likely that Colton will slide back to a third-line centre role, but with the Avs missing Jonathan Drouin short term and Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, and Gabriel Landeskog long term, the opportunity is there for Colton to have a bigger impact than he has to this point in his career.

#2 When Joseph Woll landed on the injured list to start the season, Anthony Stolarz was thrust into the No. 1 goaltending job for the Toronto Maple Leafs and the 6-foot-6 netminder is thriving in the early going. Stolarz has a .940 save percentage in three starts and that is just picking up where he left off last season, when he had a .925 save percentage in 27 games for Florida. Stolarz, 30, has never played more than 28 NHL games in a season, so it remains to be seen if he can handle a starter’s workload, but it’s safe to expect that he will see more action in Toronto this season than in any of his previous NHL seasons.

#3 Entering this season, Calgary Flames left winger Jonathan Huberdeau was practically considered a lost cause, with a massive long-term contract and declining production since arriving in Calgary. But what if the 31-year-old Huberdeau isn’t cooked just yet? Skating on a line with Martin Pospisil and Anthony Mantha, the trio has helped Calgary to a 4-0 start, while Huberdeau has scored three goals at even strength and added three assists on the power play.

#4 Avalanche centre Casey Mittelstadt is getting pushed into a bigger role in Colorado. He has five points (4 G, 1 A) and 17 shots on goal in five games, which is solid, but he is averaging more than 21 minutes of ice time per game, an increase of more than five minutes per game compared to his ice time with the Avs after he was acquired from Buffalo last season. Mittelstadt has produced 59 and 57 points in the past two seasons, respectively, and could very well exceed those totals this season.

#5 After dominating in the American Hockey League, Calgary Flames goaltender Dustin Wolf got called up last season and finished with a .893 save percentage in 17 games for the Flames – not exactly making his case to be the franchise goaltender of the future. When the Flames dealt Jacob Markstrom in the offseason, though, the door was opened for Wolf to step through and he has stopped 68 of 72 shots in his first two starts this season. If the Flames are going to get top-tier goaltending, that does have the potential to change expectations but, for now, it’s just encouraging to see Wolf performing this way at the highest level.

#6 Former Flames centre Sean Monahan signed in Columbus as a free agent, with hopes of re-connecting with Johnny Gaudreau. This summer’s tragedy halted those plans, but the veteran Monahan has stepped into a leadership role for the Blue Jackets, producing four points (2 G, 2 A) and 12 shots on goal in his first four games. His primary linemates have been Kirill Marchenko and Yegor Chinakhov and the trio has been outrageously dominant in the early going, controlling 79.7 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play.

#7 The No. 1 pick in the 2024 Draft, Macklin Celebrini put up a goal and an assist in his NHL debut then immediately landed on the injured list due to a lower-body injury. With Celebrini out, Mikael Granlund has moved back to the middle, centering William Eklund and Tyler Toffoli on the top line. That shuffle has also opened up a spot for Klim Kostin in San Jose’s top six. Granlund does have five assists in five games and is playing more than 21 minutes per game.

#8 Seattle Kraken left winger Jared McCann has scored 69 goals across the past two seasons and yet was still available in quite a few leagues early in the season. He has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 11 shots on goal in five games and McCann and Jordan Eberle had a productive game Thursday night against Philadelphia with Shane Wright skating at centre between the two veteran wingers.

#9 Two thirds of the Utah Hockey Club’s top line is sitting out there, waiting to be scooped up on fantasy waivers. Barrett Hayton and Nick Schmaltz are productive, and it doesn’t hurt that they get to play with a skilled winger like Clayton Keller. Hayton has six points (4 G, 2 A) in five games, already exceeding his goal total from last season when he was limited to just 33 games. Schmaltz has six assists in five games and, in this small sample, has averaged 2.60 shots on goal per game, which would represent a career high.

#10 Utah defenceman Sean Durzi is going to be out 4-5 months after surgery was required for an upper-body injury that he suffered Monday at New Jersey. Durzi had played more than 25 minutes per game through the first three games of the season before getting hurt in Game No. 4. His absence will offer an opportunity for Juuso Valimaki to get a chance on Utah’s second power play unit. Valimaki is still looking for his first points of the season and he only had 17 points (2 G, 15 A) in 68 games last season, but the year before that, he contributed 11 power play points among his 34 points overall, so there is a chance for Valimaki to recapture some of that offensive part of his game.

#11 Chicago Blackhawks winger Teuvo Teravainen returned to the team that drafted him and where he started his NHL career when he signed as a free agent in the summer. He has been a good fit on Connor Bedard’s wing, which should be expected, given Teravainen’s playmaking ability and Bedard’s ever-dangerous shot. Teravainen has seven points (3 G, 4 A) in five games and is skating on Chicago’s top line with Bedard and Nick Foligno while also getting first unit power play time. Teravainen has topped 60 points four times in his career, hitting a career high of 76 points in 2018-2019.

#12 Penguins rookie goaltender Joel Blomqvist is challenging Tristan Jarry for a bigger share of playing time in the Pittsburgh crease. The 22-year-old was a second-round pick in 2020 and has a .908 save percentage in his first four games. He had a .919 in 47 AHL games and with Jarry struggling (.836 save percentage through three games), opportunity is knocking for Blomqvist.

#13 When the Toronto Maple Leafs remodeled their blueline in the offseason, Chris Tanev was the defender that drew the most attention. Fresh off a Stanley Cup in Florida, Oliver Ekman-Larsson has moved into a prime role on the Maple Leafs blueline, quarterbacking the top power play and playing nearly 22 minutes per game. Ekman-Larsson has three assists and 15 shots on goal in four games, which is very encouraging production, particularly that shot rate, which is far higher than Ekman-Larsson has produced previously.

#14 A lower-body injury kept veteran Pittsburgh Penguins winger Bryan Rust out of the lineup for the first couple of games this season, but he has returned to action and has been thrust into a big role, skating on the right side with Sidney Crosby and Anthony Beauvillier. In his first three games, Rust has two points (1 G, 1 A) and 13 shots on goal while averaging 20:31 of ice time per game. He has scored at least 20 goals in five consecutive seasons, recording more than 55 points in three of those five seasons. In the three seasons that he has finished with at least 55 points, Rust missed at least 20 games, so there is still potential for him to produce more over a full season merely by staying healthy.

#15 Drafted with the 21st pick in 2020, Yegor Chinakhov displayed his potential last season, scoring 29 points (16 G, 13 A) in 53 games, a sign that he was going to be able to contribute at this level. In the early going this season, he is taking it to another level, producing six points (2 G, 4 A) with 13 shots on goal in his first four games. Not only is he skating on the top line with Monahan and Marchenko, but Chinakhov is getting first unit power play time, too, so a breakthrough season could be on the way.

#16 The New Jersey Devils went out in the offseason and added some grit to their forward ranks, acquiring Paul Cotter in a trade with Vegas and signing Stefan Noesen, a former Devil who had been playing in Carolina. Cotter had 25 points (7 G, 18 A) in 76 games last season for the Golden Knights, but already has six points (5 G, 1 A) in seven games for the Devils. He has 15 shots on goal and 20 hits, too, which can make him a more valuable fantasy contributor and he has moved up the depth chart to skate with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt at even strength. Noesen had a career-high 37 points in 81 games for the Hurricanes last season and has started this season with six points (2 G, 4 A) in seven games and is working on a line with veterans Tomas Tatar and Erik Haula.

#17 The leading rookie goal scorer early in the season is Devils defenceman Seamus Casey, who has three goals in his first seven NHL games. Montreal’s Emil Heineman and Philadelphia’s Matvei Michkov are tied for second with two goals. Casey is a smallish defender who was a second-round pick in 2022. He played two seasons at the University of Michigan, and had 45 points (7 G, 38 A) in 40 games as a sophomore last season. Casey might owe his opportunity to another former Wolverine, as Luke Hughes is recovering from shoulder surgery, opening up a spot on the New Jersey blueline to start the season.

#18 John Beecher, a first-round pick of the Bruins in 2019, has jumped out to a hot start with five points (2 G, 3 A) in five games. Beecher’s ice time is up to 13:35 per game, but he is likely still a risky player for fantasy managers. He had just 10 points (7 G, 3 A) in 52 games last season and only had 36 points in 87 AHL games, so it is difficult to project big things offensively over the long haul. As a short-term option in deep banger leagues, maybe he could have some value for fantasy managers.

#19 Seattle Kraken centre Matty Beniers saw his production fall off dramatically last season and one of the main concerns when it comes to sustainable production is that Beniers had a very low shot rate, averaging just 1.73 shots per game last season. While Beniers has just one assist through five games this season, there might be a slight reason for optimism in that he is averaging 2.60 shots on goal per game. In most leagues, it’s probably worth waiting to see some production start to materialize before assigning too much value to Beniers, but he could be a viable buy-low or waiver wire option.

#20 Blue Jackets winger Kent Johnson suffered an upper-body injury against Buffalo on Thursday, but it is worth noting that an injury to Johnson would not have caused a ripple in the hockey universe. He had just 16 points (6 G, 10 A) in 42 games for the Blue Jackets and was demoted to the AHL, where he did put up 15 points (5 G, 10 A) in 10 games. Nevertheless, with a new coach and a fresh start in Columbus, Johnson has responded with five points (2 G, 3 A) in four games and had logged more than 21 minutes in the second and third games of the season before playing just six minutes against the Sabres before getting hurt. Track Johnson’s health, though, because he is a skilled player and if he is getting a legit opportunity to shine in Columbus, then he could be a fantasy sleeper.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – NEW JERSEY DEVILS – Team Preview

Wed, 18 Sep 2024 16:00:56 +0000

_{NEWARK, NJ - FEBRUARY 08: New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes (86) warms up before a game between the Calgary Flames and New Jersey Devils on February 08, 2024 at Prudential Center in the Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)}

A season that started with high expectations went down the tubes rather quickly and the Devils finished the season with 81 points (38-39-5). Travis Green replaced Lindy Ruff behind the bench for the last 21 games and New Jersey’s record got worse. The Devils ranked 10th in Corsi (51.7%) and 12th in expected goals percentage (51.6%), which is better than average. It’s not where the Devils were in previous seasons, but still better than average. New Jersey’s power play ranked 11th with 8.22 goals per 60 minutes while the penalty kill ranked 10th with 6.94 goals against per 60 minutes. Considering these rankings, how did the Devils not make the playoffs? Their goaltenders combined to give them a .886 save percentage, ranking 30th. That can undo a lot of good happening elsewhere on the ice. The Devils also had some major injuries to key players. Dougie Hamilton played 20 games and Jack Hughes missed 20, but played hurt late in the season, too.

What’s Changed? Former Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe takes over behind the bench for the Devils and he takes over a team that was busy trying to solve its problems. Intent on fixing their goaltending issues, the Devils acquired Jacob Markstrom from Calgary, then stabilized their defence by signing Brett Pesce from Carolina and Brenden Dillon from Winnipeg. The Devils couldn’t wait any longer on right winger Alexander Holtz, so they traded him along with goaltender Akira Schmid to Vegas for hard-hitting winger Paul Cotter. They dealt defenceman John Marino to Utah and Kevin Bahl to Calgary in the Markstrom deal after acquiring defenceman Johnathan Kovacevic in a trade with Montreal. The Devils also dipped into their past by signing wingers Stefan Noesen and Tomas Tatar as free agents.

What would success look like? There is more than enough talent on hand for the Devils to make the playoffs, but it would not be unreasonable for expectations to be higher than merely making the postseason. That would be one step of success, but the Devils are built to be a Stanley Cup contender so that would be the real success. On an individual level, it would be ideal if young defencemen Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec continue to develop because they should be cornerstone pieces for this franchise for a long time.

What could go wrong? If Markstrom does not fix what ails the Devils in net, then the season could go sideways again. Certainly, major injuries to players like Jack Hughes or Dougie Hamilton – who have both missed some time in recent seasons – would be problems, but this team, as constructed, should be deep enough to handle an injury or two, even to key players. The underlying numbers were still solid last season so it would be a real surprise if the Devils made all these moves and still ended up missing the playoffs again.

Top Breakout Candidate: This is not really a team with openings for young players to get quality ice time, but defenceman Simon Nemec is an exception. The second pick in the 2022 Draft, Nemec contributed 19 points in 60 games as a rookie. He did put up 14 goals and 42 points in 78 AHL games, so he can make a difference offensively, and there may come a day when he is put into a more offensive role on the Devils blueline. Right now, it appears that Hamilton and Luke Hughes are the first two options to quarterback the Devils power play, but Nemec should not be discounted and even if his point totals might not explode this season, he is likely to take a step forward in his development anyway, playing with a steady veteran like Brenden Dillon.

Forwards

Jack Hughes

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	41	61	102	1.32

There is no denying the level of skill with which Hughes plays. He is averaging 1.21 points per game across the past three seasons, which ranks 12th in the league. The issue that does hang over Hughes, however, is that he has had trouble staying healthy. He missed 20 games last season and was playing through a shoulder injury that ultimately required surgery. He is not exactly the biggest and strongest out on the ice, so it is reasonable to have concern about his durability until he shows that it is not an issue. One other issue for Hughes is that he has yet to prove he can have success in the face-off circle. Injuries may play a part, but he won just 37.2 percent of his draws last season and that was a career-high rate! When he is on the ice, He is a sublime talent, one of the best puck-handlers in the entire league. He plays with audacious creativity which makes him a crowd-pleasing performer and Hughes is adept at creating chances for himself as well as for his linemates. Hughes’ ability to attack in transition plays a big part in his ability to generate shots and he put up a career-high 4.42 shots per game in 2023-2024. Hughes played a career-high 20:58 per game last season, a minute higher than the previous season, so he is starting to hit his peak in terms of usage. For the 2024-2025 season, it is reasonable to count on something like 35 goals and 85 points from Hughes, but that comes with the expectation that he will miss some games. If Hughes stays healthy, a 100-point season is within his grasp.

Jesper Bratt

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	32	48	80	0.98

Bratt has climbed to join the ranks of the best offensive wingers in the game and scored a career-high 83 points last season even while the Devils struggled as a team. He roared out of the gate to start the season, much like he did the year before, tallying 18 points in his first nine games. Bratt generated a career-high 3.02 shots on goal per game while playing a career-high 19:18 per game. He earned that ice time with his production. In the past three seasons, Bratt has compiled 229 points, which ranks 20th among wingers in that time. He has breakaway speed and attacks in transition frequently. The 26-year-old winger uses his wide base to shield the puck very effectively, which allows him to buy time in order to make a more dangerous play. When he is playing with confidence, he is frequently putting the defense on its heels because of his speed. Bratt’s increased shot output makes him a greater threat offensively because he has a quick release and if the defence gives him time, he can fire the puck to beat the goaltender from distance. Playing with Hischier and Palat, Bratt should be in position for another productive campaign. Considering his recent production, he could be expected to contribute 30 goals and 75-80 points.

Nico Hischier

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	29	52	81	0.99

The Devils’ captain has established his credentials as a premier two-way centre but has added to his defensive reputation with more consistent offensive production. In the past two seasons, he has tallied 58 goals and 147 points in 152 games. While Hughes struggles at the face-off dot, Hischier has continued to improve in that aspect of the game and won a career-best 56.6% of his draws last season. A heady player who can modify his contributions based on what is needed, Hischier has not only generated more points in the past two seasons, but that has been supported by underlying numbers, with higher on-ice expected goal rates and yet he has achieved that through different paths. In 2022-2023, his shot rate spiked to 3.16 per game, nearly an extra shot per game compared to the previous season. Then, last season, it dropped to 2.56 shots per game, even though the Devils generated even more shots with Hischier on the ice. His most common linemates are Jesper Bratt and Ondrej Palat, which is a quality trio to be sure. Among lines that played at least 200 five-on-five minutes last season, they ranked second with 4.66 expected goals per 60 minutes and fourth with an expected goals percentage of 63.8. Considering that efficiency and looking ahead to the 2024-2025 season, it is reasonable to expect 25-30 goals and 70-plus points from Hischier.

Timo Meier

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	39	34	73	0.97

After mediocre production when he first joined the Devils in the 2022-2023 season, Meier still landed a big contract, but he struggled for quite a while last season, and it looked like the contract could be a disaster in the making. However, even as the Devils’ season went off the rails, Meier started to put it together late in the season and he scored 18 goals and 30 points in his last 26 games. That followed 10 goals and 22 points in his first 43 games. The three-time 30-goal scorer finished with 28 goals last season, but his overall impact is not like it was in his last couple of seasons in San Jose when he was one of the premier shot generators in the entire league. Among forwards that have played at least 2000 five-on-five minutes across the past three seasons, Bratt ranks seventh with 1.11 individual expected goals per 60 minutes. This should make Meier one of the primary projects of new head coach Sheldon Keefe, because if he can get Meier back on top of his game, that will give the Devils more options when trying to set their scoring lines. With even a little movement in the right direction, Meier could deliver 30 goals and 60 points.

Dawson Mercer

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	28	30	58	0.71

When Mercer scored 11 goals during an 11-game flurry in the 2022-2023 season, it may have set the bar too high to be sustainable and he saw his 56-point season plummet to a 33-point season in 2023-2024. Mercer did record his second straight 20-goal season but since he has yet to average two shots on goal per game in any of his first three NHL seasons, that should be a primary objective if he is going to have goal-scoring production that lasts. To Mercer’s credit, he has scored 40 even-strength goals across the past two seasons, which ranks fourth on the team behind Hughes, Bratt, and Hischier. Mercer is not shy about getting to the front of the net, and that’s where the goals are scored. What could work in his favour for a bounce-back season is that his most frequent centre last season was Erik Haula and, based on the Devils’ personnel, it looks like Mercer should have a chance to skate more consistently with Jack Hughes, which naturally raises offensive expectations. A 22-year-old (mostly) winger, Mercer has not missed a game in his first three NHL seasons and should be able to produce 25 goals and 50 points in 2024-2025, but he’ll have to shoot the puck to do it!

Ondrej Palat

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	12	27	39	0.56

Even if the veteran winger only managed 31 points for the Devils last season, Palat continues to be an excellent two-way forward who continues to push play in the right direction when he is on the ice. He thrived playing alongside Bratt and Hischier, which should be who he lines up with this season. One interesting, yet under-utilized, aspect of Palat’s game is that he was a highly effective penalty killer but ranked 10th among Devils forwards in four-on-five ice time per game despite having the lowest rates of shot attempts against and expected goals against per 60 minutes. Given all the team success he experienced in Tampa Bay, Palat has playoff experience that sets his apart from his Devils teammates. He has accrued 150 playoff games in his career, with four separate playoff runs of more than 20 games. Beyond the experience and strong defensive play that Palat brings to the table, it is apparent that he is losing effectiveness offensively. He last surpassed 50 points in a season in 2016-2017 but has managed 54 points in 120 games since joining the Devils. Given that recent track record, and the fact that he is now 33-years old, it is probably more reasonable to expect 30-35 points from Palat in 2024-2025.

Erik Haula

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	15	20	35	0.44

Moving to New Jersey has brought an element of stability to Haula’s career. He has played 156 games for the Devils over the past two seasons, the first time in his career that he logged that many games for the same team across back-to-back seasons. That’s in large part because he has been moving between teams so frequently. More importantly, Haula was excellent in a two-way role for the Devils last season, anchoring the third line and delivering positive results at both ends of the rink. The Devils controlled 55.5 percent of expected goals when Haula was on the ice during five-on-five play. He has won 54.5 percent of his faceoffs since joining the Devils and tends to play with a bit of an edge. He recorded a career-high 54 penalty minutes last season. Considering what the Devils have down the middle of the ice, with Hughes and Hischier at the top of the depth chart, getting such reliable performance from Haula is what is needed for this team to be a contender. The 33-year-old pivot should be expected to continue what he has been doing for the Devils in the past couple of seasons. That means that he could produce 15 goals and 35 points this season.

Stefan Noesen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	15	21	36	0.45

A late bloomer who set career highs with 14 goals and 37 points for the Carolina Hurricanes last season, Noesen signed with the Devils as a free agent. He previously played with the Devils from 2016-2017 through the 2018-2019 season. The 31-year-old winger has played 366 games in his NHL career, and it might have taken awhile for him to establish that he is a legit NHL player, because he is not necessarily the most graceful skater, but he thrived in Carolina. With Noesen on the ice across the past two seasons, the Hurricanes controlled 61.8 percent of expected goals with Carolina outscoring the opposition 71-37 with Noesen on the ice. In addition to those positive results, Noesen plays with a physical edge and goes hard to the net, which helps to make him a useful contributor in a depth role because he is hard to play against and has been an efficient scorer even when he receives little ice time. In New Jersey, there is a fair chance that Noesen will have an opportunity to play in the top nine, which means more ice time and, perhaps, more opportunities for him to score. If Noesen keeps playing a physical game and contributes 35 points, the Devils ought to be happy with their offseason addition to the lineup.

Tomas Tatar

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	13	19	32	0.41

The veteran winger returns to New Jersey after splitting last season between Seattle and Colorado, finishing with 24 points in 70 games, his lowest offensive output since 2012-2013, when he had seven points in 18 games. It makes sense for the Devils to bring Tatar back on a bargain deal because the 33-year-old had a strong season in 2022-2023 when he was last with New Jersey. Tatar is a finesse player who has had seven seasons with at least 20 goals. While he does not play an overly physical game, he is at least a competent defensive player, sometimes even better than that. He offers the Devils another secondary scoring option and some veteran savvy. If Tatar can help the Devils get back into the playoffs, then he had better figure out how to show up for the postseason. In 52 career playoff games, Tatar has just seven goals and 13 points, so while that might be a point of concern, the priority for New Jersey is to get back into the playoffs and having a skilled winger who can move around the lineup ought to help with that pursuit. At this stage of his career, 33-year-old Tatar could contribute 12-15 goals and 30 points.

Paul Cotter

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	9	18	27	0.35

Looking for a bit of a roster shakeup, the Devils traded right winger Alexander Holtz and goaltender Akira Schmid to the Vegas Golden Knights to acquire a 2025 third-round pick along with Cotter, a hard-driving fourth-line winger who brings a consistent physical presence to the lineup. Cotter, 24, produced seven goals and 25 points for the Golden Knights last season and ranked second on the team with 233 hits. No one on the Devils was within 50 hits of Cotter’s total. He has worked his way through the ranks as a fourth-round pick in 2018 and he has had to battle to make his way into the league. Now, Cotter has some specific appeal related to the style of game that he plays. The Devils appear intent on adding some bite to their forward depth chart and he is front and centre in that approach. He is likely to start the season on a line with Curtis Lazar and Nathan Bastian, a group that should not recoil at the thought of physical contact. While Cotter has a modest 22 goals and 45 points in 138 career games, he has decent hands and can chip in a little offensively. A reasonable expectation would be to match last season’s total of 25 points, with potential for more if he somehow earns a role higher on the depth chart.

DEFENCE

Dougie Hamilton

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	18	40	58	0.83

A torn pectoral muscle limited Hamilton to just 20 games in the 2023-2024 season, but he still produced five goals and 16 points, with half of those points coming on the power play. A smooth skater standing 6-foot-6, Hamilton can swallow up so much space on the ice, either jumping into the rush, or getting back to handle an attacking opponent. His defensive play has dipped in recent seasons, but it helps to generate even more chances offensively. While it occurred in a relatively small sample of games, Hamilton had a Corsi percentage of 59.7 last season, the highest mark of his career. It was the fourth season of his career in which his expected goal percentage was better than 57 percent, so this is a player who typically has a significant positive impact. One of the things that makes Hamilton such a consistent threat is his ability to put pucks on net. He has averaged more than three shots on goal per game for seven straight seasons. With the expectation that Hamilton will be ready to go at the start of the 2024-2025 season, he should continue to be one of the most productive defencemen in the league. Health will obviously be a factor, but he should be able to produce 15 goals and somewhere between 45-50 points. While Hamilton went for a career-high 74 points in 2022-2023, that was the only season of his career in which he finished with more than 50 points. He certainly has that capability, but it has not been typical for him to pass that threshold.

Luke Hughes

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	10	41	51	0.62

The fourth pick in the 2021 Draft, Hughes endured some growing pains as a rookie and still accrued 47 points, tying Minnesota’s Brock Faber for second in rookie scoring behind Chicago Blackhawks centre Connor Bedard. With Hamilton injured, Hughes took over on the Devils’ top power play unit and finished with 25 power play points. The puck was moving the right way with Hughes on the ice, too, with the Devils getting 54.5 percent of shot attempts and 52.5 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play when Hughes was on the ice. Coming from a family that includes his brothers, Devils centre Jack Hughes and Vancouver Canucks defenceman Quinn Hughes, it should come as no surprise that Luke Hughes is a strong skater. He is also bigger than his brothers. On the other hand, Jack and Quinn are both incredibly dynamic players with the puck and it would be too soon to suggest that Luke is on that level. At the same time, Luke was 20-years old last season, so there is time for him to mature and grow into a role as a legitimate top pair defenceman. With the Devils improving their supporting cast on the blueline, bringing in Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon as free agents, their young defenceman should have much better support in 2024-2025. Hamilton returning to action, and quarterbacking the top power play, should mean fewer points for Hughes, but he could very well have a better all-around impact because of the cast of characters around him. It would be fair to expect Hughes to put up 35-40 points in his second NHL season.

Simon Nemec

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	5	23	28	0.37

Drafted second overall in 2022, Nemec started last season in the American Hockey League, where he produced eight points in 13 games for Utica before getting called up to New Jersey. He showed plenty of potential, with 19 points in 60 games. Nemec didn’t get the luxury of a big role on the power play, chipping in just two points with the man advantage. He has shown that he is not afraid to join the attack, and he is an excellent skater who plays an intelligent game. He makes an efficient first pass that tends to help get the puck moving in the right direction and can carry the puck through the neutral zone to challenge opposing defenders. Nemec has the upside to become a top pair defenceman and that makes him a valuable commodity heading into the 2024-2025 season. Much like Hughes, Nemec is sure to benefit from New Jersey’s offseason upgrades on the blueline. That stability should play well for the Devils’ young defencemen and Nemec has been making such rapid progress that he could take a big leap forward this season. What does that mean for his production? It would be reasonable to expect 25-30 points out of Nemec in a full season. While he could put up more with a bigger power play role, it seems that Hamilton and Hughes will be ahead of Nemec on the power play depth chart.

GOAL

Jacob Markstrom

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
53	30	17	6	3	0.908	2.65

Jake Allen

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
28	16	9	3	1	0.902	2.93

The 2023-24 New Jersey Devils weren't the league's worst team, but they did boast arguably the league's worst three-player goaltending tandem - so they spent their offseason cleaning house, albeit in a somewhat risky way. Out for next season are Vitek Vanecek (dealt mid-season last year to the San Jose Sharks) and Akira Schmid, who was dealt to Vegas at the end of June. In their places, the Devils held on to struggling mid-season acquisition Jake Allen and sent a first-round pick to Calgary for struggling Jacob Markström - who will start the year as one of the league's oldest tandems and both coming off historically poor years in 2023. They'll hope to hold down the fort while Nico Daws is given a chance to continue developing at the AHL level, although some might raise their eyebrows at the idea of New Jersey spending yet another year working with other teams' aging reclamation projects.

Markström is, on paper, the best chance for success for New Jersey. While he struggled as much as the rest of Calgary did last season, leaving surprising holes along the ice and lagging on recoveries from his knees during rebound attempts, his overall tracking and decision-making still looked strong enough to lend credence to the possibility that he's still got some game left in the tank. Allen is a less-promising entity, struggling with depth management during his tenure in Montreal and seeming to get rattled by bad goals in a way veteran goaltenders shouldn't, but it's hard to deny that New Jersey should be a lower-pressure environment than Montreal for him to hopefully get his game back on track. Ultimately, though, this tandem likely doesn't have a ton of staying power in Jersey - so don't be surprised if Daws is back up in Newark before the year is up.

FANTASY HOCKEY: The Week Ahead – October 23rd to 29th

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 23 Oct 2023 17:18:40 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - OCTOBER 12: Detroit Red Wings right wing Alex DeBrincat (93) celebrates his goal during a game between the Detroit Red Wings and New Jersey Devils on October 12, 2023 at Prudential Center in the Newark, New Jersey.(Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

After adding forwards Alex DeBrincat and J.T. Compher, backup goaltender James Reimer and defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere over the summer, Detroit was positioned to take a step forward from its 35-37-10 finish in 2022-23. Few would have anticipated the Red Wings’ early dominance though.

With a 6-2 victory over Calgary on Sunday, Detroit is now 5-1-0 and its summer acquisitions have played a huge part in that. DeBrincat has eight (!) goals and 12 points in six contests, Compher has a goal and four points, Gostisbehere has two markers and six points and Reimer has a 1.00 GAA and a .963 save percentage to win his first two starts with Detroit. Of course, they haven’t been the only factors, most notably Dylan Larkin has 11 points in six contests, but it’s rare to see a team not only get so hot out of the gate, but to achieve that primarily through the strength of new additions.

Naturally, this isn’t going to last. DeBrincat isn’t going to maintain his current pace and finish with 109 goals (though besting his career high of 41 is certainly possible). Still, Detroit figures to be a serious contender for a playoff spot this year, and when you remember that the Atlantic Division also features Boston, Ottawa, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Florida and Buffalo, it becomes clear that this is going to be a very tough fight.

Edmonton has a tough fight on its hands too. The Oilers are off to a disappointing 1-3-1 record, due in part to them scoring a underwhelming 2.60 goals per game, and now Connor McDavid is expected to miss the next week or two with an upper-body injury. Others have to step up in his absence with one forward in particular to keep an eye on being Warren Foegele. He’s typically not a major offensive force and has averaged just 11:44 of ice time this season, but with McDavid out, Foegele might be elevated to a top-six spot. Mattias Janmark, who has averaged 12:05 through five contests, might also see his playing time noticeably increase during McDavid’s absence.

Boston Bruins

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/24/2023	BOS	CHI
Thu	10/26/2023	ANA	BOS
Sat	10/28/2023	DET	BOS

Watching Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retire over the summer hasn’t stopped the Bruins from going 5-0-0 to open the season, though that’s thanks to goaltenders Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark allowing just seven goals thus far rather than any forward stepping up to fill the void left by Boston’s former centers.

Regardless, Boston has a chance to keep that winning streak when they play in Chicago on Tuesday. The Bruins will face another rebuilding squad Thursday when they host Anaheim, though Saturday will feature a tougher home contest versus Detroit. The Red Wings with their red hot offense might prove to be the first major test for the Bruins’ goaltending.

As it is, the Bruins have already beaten each of Chicago and Anaheim once this season, so they’ll look for more of the same in those contests. Boston has been using its starters evenly so far, so if it continues its present rotation, Ullmark will likely play against Chicago and Swayman will get Anaheim. Both should be good options in daily leagues.

Boston’s offense has been a lot less impressive and what production there has been is primarily thanks to David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand, who have combined for nine goals and 15 points. Rookie Matthew Poitras did have his first big night Sunday though, providing two goals. He’s playing on the second line and getting some power-play ice time, so if you’re looking for a lower profile player to go after in Boston, he’s not a bad option.

Carolina Hurricanes

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/24/2023	CAR	TBL
Thu	10/26/2023	SEA	CAR
Fri	10/27/2023	SJS	CAR

Last year, facing the Lightning followed by the Kraken would have been a rough combo, but so far in 2023-24, those are two winnable games, especially for a team like Carolina. When the Hurricanes play in Tampa Bay on Tuesday, they’ll be up against a lackluster 2-2-2 team due in no small part to goaltender Jonas Johansson posting a 3.58 GAA and a .902 save percentage through five contests. Andrei Vasilevskiy (back) is still unavailable, though, so the Lightning are likely to once again put him in net.

Seattle, which will play in Carolina on Thursday, has fared even worse, getting off to a 1-4-1 start. The Kraken were one of the league’s top teams offensively last season, but they’ve averaged just 1.83 goals per game this year. The Hurricanes will round out the week with a home game against the rebuilding Sharks on Friday.

Seth Jarvis and Jesperi Kotkaniemi have been fantastic over Carolina’s first six contests, each providing seven points. They’re two young forwards who entered the campaign with plenty of untapped offensive upside, so this might just be the start of their respective breakout seasons.

Stefan Noesen is far less likely to put up big numbers this season, but after scoring a goal and six points over the last three contests, he’s worthy of a short-term pickup to take advantage of his hot streak mixed with the Hurricanes’ favorable schedule.

Columbus Blue Jackets

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/24/2023	ANA	CBJ
Thu	10/26/2023	CBJ	MTL
Sat	10/28/2023	NYI	CBJ

The Blue Jackets aren’t expected to do particularly well this season, but they are hot at the moment, winning three of their last four games. To make matters better, they have two very winnable contests ahead of them, first hosting Anaheim on Tuesday then facing Montreal on Thursday. Columbus will conclude the week with a home game versus the Islanders, which are projected to be a good, but not great, squad.

One of the keys to Columbus’ recent success has been Justin Danforth, who has three goals and four points in his last four contests. The 30-year-old is a bottom-six forward, so don’t expect him to finish the campaign with significant offensive numbers, but with him hot and the Blue Jackets’ first two opponents this week featuring questionable defenses, Danforth is worthy of consideration as a short-term grab.

With Patrik Laine (upper body) potentially out for one or more games this week, which might result in Columbus leaning more on Kirill Marchenko. In the Blue Jackets’ first contest without Laine on Saturday, Marchenko logged 19:04 of ice time, including 3:27 on the power play -- up from an average of 16:02 over his first four outings this season. Marchenko had 21 goals and 25 points in 59 contests as a rookie last season and three assists in five appearances in 2023-24, but he has the potential to do better and is in a position to succeed.

Detroit Red Wings

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/24/2023	SEA	DET
Thu	10/26/2023	WPG	DET
Sat	10/28/2023	DET	BOS

As noted above, the Red Wings are off to a fantastic start and they’ll look to keep that going with games at home versus Seattle and Winnipeg on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before facing a big test in Saturday’s road contest versus Boston.

Detroit’s incredible offensive output to begin the campaign has allowed some strong performances to fly under the radar. In particular, Joe Veleno has three goals over his last two contests, which might be one of the biggest stories if he was playing on a different team. Veleno is a former first-round pick (30th overall in 2018), so he does have upside, but his position on the Red Wings’ third line and lack of a power-play role makes it hard to recommend him as anything more than a short-term pickup.

Speaking of which, I think grabbing Daniel Sprong would be an interesting choice ahead of the Seattle game. Sprong spent the previous two campaigns with the Kraken and like Detroit’s other summer additions, he’s off to a strong start this season with two goals and four points in six contests. I think there’s a solid chance he’ll be a factor against his former team.

Montreal Canadiens

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Mon	10/23/2023	MTL	BUF
Tue	10/24/2023	NJD	MTL
Thu	10/26/2023	CBJ	MTL
Sat	10/28/2023	WPG	MTL

The Canadiens have a full schedule this week with a road game in Buffalo on Monday before heading home to host New Jersey on Tuesday, Columbus on Thursday and Winnipeg on Saturday. That’s solid competition throughout, but I’m still going to highlight the Canadiens by virtue of them getting a four-game set, including three at home, this week.

Sean Monahan has gotten off to a strong start with two goals and four points in four contests. The 2022-23 campaign might have been known as his comeback season had he stayed healthy, but that could happen this season instead. Although his tenure with Calgary ended poorly, he might finish 2023-24 with 50-60 points.

One Canadiens player who unfortunately will not have a good season is Kirby Dach. His campaign ended when he suffered torn right ACL and MCL on Oct. 14. His absence might lead to Michael Pezzetta playing regularly this season after spending the first two contests as a healthy scratch. Pezzetta won’t provide much offensively, but he should be a good source of PIM and hits.

If you’re looking for points, Tanner Pearson is a better bet. The middle-six winger isn’t worth more than a short-term pickup, but he is going into the week on a three-game scoring streak, contributing two goals and an assist over that span.

New Jersey Devils

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/24/2023	NJD	MTL
Wed	10/25/2023	WSH	NJD
Fri	10/27/2023	BUF	NJD
Sun	10/29/2023	MIN	NJD
Fri	11/10/2023	WSH	NJD

In addition to their road game against Montreal on Tuesday, the Devils will have a home stretch versus Washington, Buffalo and Minnesota on Wednesday, Friday and Sunday, respectively. The Capitals and Sabres have plenty of major offensive weapons, but Buffalo has averaged just 2.40 goals per game while Washington has somehow managed 1.25.

That’s good news for Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid. The Devils goaltending duo has struggled out of the gate, posting a combined 3.45 GAA and .892 save percentage while splitting the workload evenly, but they’re capable of better and perhaps those matchups will serve as an opportunity for them to turn things around.

On offense, things have been going far better for the Devils with Jack Hughes being especially effective, scoring four goals and 10 points in just four contests. Injuries are becoming an issue though with Erik Haula (upper body), Nico Hischier (upper body) and Tomas Nosek (lower body) all day-to-day. We’ve already seen Michael McLeod jump from averaging 10:17 over New Jersey’s first two games to 15:00 in the last two, and he might get top-six minutes until one or more of those forwards return.

Vegas Golden Knights

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/24/2023	PHI	VGK
Fri	10/27/2023	CHI	VGK
Sat	10/28/2023	VGK	LAK

Winning the Stanley Cup didn’t satiate the Golden Knights or leave them tired. They’ve opened the season with a 6-0-0 record and have a solid chance of continuing that streak at home Tuesday versus Philadelphia. Vegas is also set to host Chicago on Friday and play in Los Angeles on Saturday.

The Golden Knights’ early success has been due to their deep offense. Nicolas Roy, Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault have each provided three goals while Chandler Stephenson and William Karlsson have each found the back of the net twice. Defenseman Shea Theodore is also off to a great start, contributing a goal and six points.

Even their replacements have come through. With defenseman Alex Pietrangelo (upper body) unavailable, rookie Kaedan Korczak has entered the lineup and provided a goal and three points over three contests. The 22-year-old isn’t expected to be a significant offensive producer this season, but with him being hot, he’s a short-term selection option, provided Pietrangelo isn’t ready to return Tuesday.

Paul Cotter is also red hot, scoring a goal and four points over the last four contests. He’s another player who is presently producing above his ability, but Cotter got ample power-play time Saturday, which led to him contributing two points with the man advantage, so he’s an interesting option right now.

Washington Capitals

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME
Tue	10/24/2023	TOR	WSH
Wed	10/25/2023	WSH	NJD
Fri	10/27/2023	MIN	WSH
Sun	10/29/2023	SJS	WSH

The Capitals don’t have an easy schedule, but they are at least set to play four games. They’ll host Toronto on Tuesday, play on the road versus the Devils on Wednesday, then return to Washington to host the Wild and Sharks on Friday and Sunday, respectively.

The big question is if Washington can get its offense going after scoring just five goals over its first four contests. Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson still don’t have a goal yet.

At the very least, you have to figure Ovechkin is going to breakthrough sooner rather than later, but what’s concerning is that not only has he failed to score, but he also hasn’t shot the puck much. Ovechkin is known for firing a crazy amount of shots -- an average of 4.71 per game over his career and over 4.00 in each of his last six years. The one time he dipped below that was 2016-17 when he averaged 3.82 shots per game and was limited to 33 goals in 82 contests -- the worst output he’s ever had in terms of goals per game. So the fact that he’s averaged just 2.25 shots in 2023-24 is a potential red flag. That said, it’s early, and those who doubted Ovechkin in the past have consistently been proven wrong.

Washington’s lone pleasant surprise thus far has been Matthew Phillips. The 25-year-old rookie has a goal and three points in four contests this year. He was dominant in the AHL over the previous two campaigns, contributing a combined 67 goals and 144 points in 131 appearances, so perhaps Phillips will find a way to continue to be a factor this season.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Tue, 10 Oct 2023 14:45:40 +0000

Review: In the sixth season in franchise history, the Vegas Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup, going 51-22-9 and finishing with the best record in the Western Conference during the regular season. The Golden Knights ranked 14^th with 3.32 goals per game, and ranked 11^th with 2.79 goals against per game. They were a mediocre possession team, controlling 49.0% of score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts and 51.7% of expected goals, so that did not profile as a dominant Cup contender, but they also did this with five different goaltenders starting games for them during the season. It may not have necessarily been a typical path to a championship, but banners hang forever.

What’s Changed? Not surprisingly, the Stanley Cup champions did not make a lot of changes in the offseason. They did trade reliable winger Reilly Smith to Pittsburgh and let Phil Kessel hit the open market as a free agent. Center Teddy Blueger and goaltender Jonathan Quick signed as free agents with the Canucks and Rangers, respectively. The biggest move of the summer for Vegas was re-signing Ivan Barbashev, who played such a crucial role on Vegas’ top line in the playoffs, so keeping him around ensures that the Vegas heads into this season with a lot of the same championship pieces in place.

What would success look like? Expecting a repeat is asking a lot, but that is naturally going to be the expectation for Vegas after winning in 2022-2023. They return much of that championship team and while back-to-back Stanley Cups is a tall order, a title has to be the standard. Now, if they lose in the Western Conference Final, it is hardly going to be a disaster, but the Golden Knights have reached the final four in four of their six seasons, so that becomes more of a baseline expectation, which sounds preposterous but that is what follows this level of achievement.

What could go wrong? The Golden Knights managed to win the Stanley Cup with a myriad of goaltenders last season, so they might be able to survive an off season between the pipes. The bigger concern may be the health of captain Mark Stone, who has played in a total of 80 games over the past two seasons. He still plays well when healthy, but if Stone misses a bunch of time, that could cause problems for Vegas. Because the Golden Knights tend to have a top-heavy roster, the health of their stars is of major importance. It might be that way to some degree for every team, but especially teams that have invested more among their top players.

Top Breakout Candidate: On a veteran-laden team, there are not a lot of young players in prominent roles, so the best breakout candidate in Vegas is probably a goaltender. Adin Hill was excellent in the playoffs, posting a .932 save percentage in 16 appearances, but the 27-year-old netminder played a modest career high of 27 games during the regular season. He should see more action this season and that alone will give Hill a chance to have the best season of his career. If it’s not Hill, then Logan Thompson is a viable option, too. Thompson has a .915 save percentage in 57 career games and was cruising as Vegas’ starter last season before a lower-body injury ended his season.

Forwards

Jack Eichel

Eichel just kept getting better and better as the 2022-23 season went on, culminating in a dominant Stanley Cup run that saw him grab the game by the scruff of the neck and carry Las Vegas to victory on more than one occasion. Eichel showcased a nearly magnetic ability to keep the puck on his stick through opponent stick checks and his own physics-defying dangles that enabled him to create offense on a consistent basis for Vegas. Eichel lead all Vegas forwards in zone entries per hour of even-strength hockey by a comfortable margin and was in the 99^th percentile for zone entries among NHL forwards per the All Three Zones project. Eichel didn’t waste these zone entries, he was in the 98^th percentile for rush shots taken among NHL forwards last year as well. In the postseason, Eichel led the Golden Knights in both shot-attempt generation and in the creation of quality scoring chances. Eichel will continue to serve a top line role for the Knights where his vision and creativity allow him to serve up scoring opportunities for his teammates in addition to the rush chances we mentioned. Eichel finished the playoff run with the highest assist total (20) of any player in the league. With his health issues behind him, expect a very good chance at a repeat performance from Eichel.

Jonathan Marchessault

Marchessault, the Golden Knights’ Conn Smythe winner, had a consistent and strong offensive season that culminated in a 13-goal campaign that included some huge goals in critical moments of time. The most tenured member of the Golden Knights and a member of the inaugural version of the team, Marchessault’s ability to skate the puck out of danger was the foundational role in his performance. Marchessault was a menace offensively at both even-strength and on the power-play. His quick acceleration, puck handling, and knack for finding open space made him a difficult player for opposing defenders to mark. Marchessault’s even-strength offensive performance was good for the 90^th percentile among NHL forwards. He played a huge role as a conduit for assisting in getting the puck to safe areas and out of the defensive zone as evidenced by landing in the 98^th percentile for forward zone exits as tracked by All Three Zones. Marchessault had the highest expected goal share of any Knights forward in the Cup run at just over 56 percent. Whether it involved finishing plays or making high-danger passes, Marchessault was heavily involved in the Knight’s offense and is expected to step right back into his role on the top line next season.

Mark Stone

Mark Stone is one of the best two-way hockey players in the game and one of the most resilient. Stone, fresh off two back surgeries inside of one year, somehow managed to play a full slate of games in the post-season despite having the most recent of those surgeries in January of 2023. With 24 points in 22 playoff games, it was hard to believe he’d returned from surgery for game one of the post-season. Stone’s defensive performances have been the bedrock of the Golden Knights over the last few seasons and that was no different this season. When Stone is on the ice, scoring chances just do not happen in front of the Golden Knights net. He is noticeably low in the zone, actively looking to engage with any opposing forward looking to garner a chance from a high-danger area. For evidence of his participation defensively, Stone was in the 99^th percentile of forward zone exits per the All Three Zones project. Stone does work in being a conduit from defense to offense and creating scoring chances himself. He is a big body that is difficult to move and possesses great vision. Stone’s best work is on the cycle and in the battle areas of the ice, but his offensive toolbox is deceivingly deep, and his shot is both powerful and accurate.

Chandler Stephenson

Stephenson is coming off a year of career bests in points for the regular season (65) and the playoffs (20). Stephenson’s passing is the cornerstone of his game and undoubtedly his best offensive attribute. As a result of this skill and his ability to put the puck on the stick of teammates in a scoring position, he had more power-play time than any other Golden Knights’ forward last year. Stephenson found the back of the net 10 times in 22 playoff games during the Cup run, scoring some absolutely pivotal goals en route to capturing his second Stanley Cup ring. Opportunities exist for Stephenson to put the puck on the net, but that’s nitpicking given his overall offensive impacts have been fine. Stephenson drew some difficult deployments last season and still found success in them. He routinely went against some of the best forwards in the league and had the highest number of defensive zone faceoff starts of any forward on the Golden Knights roster. Overall, Stephenson plays a critical role in his team’s ability to work the puck through traffic.

William Karlsson

Turns out, the purported demise of William Karlsson was greatly exaggerated. After a career-low 35 points in the 2021-22 season, it appeared Karlsson was on a downward trajectory of slumpy-ness that was putting into question what the best fashion to deploy him was moving forward for Las Vegas head coach Bruce Cassidy. The result was a 53-point campaign for Karlsson that was followed up by an additional 17 points in 22 playoff games on the way to the Stanley Cup. Karlsson’s forechecking became a critical part of the cog that moved the Golden Knights forward. It was infectious and momentum stealing in nature. Karlsson had the highest number of recovered dump-ins per hour of even-strength ice time, a testament to his ability to quickly press the play and be a nuisance to his opponents. Additionally, Karlsson was in the 88^th percentile for passes to a high-danger area per the All Three Zones project. Karlsson had positive impacts to both the power-play and penalty-killing units for the Knights this year. His utility in how he can be deployed truly makes him a coach’s dream. While his finishing has still struggled in recent years, the boosts he provides in other areas, with and without the puck, are a major benefit to the overall structure of the team.

Ivan Barbashev

Barbashev arrived in Vegas via St. Louis in a trade that ultimately played a critical role in the Golden Knights winning a Stanley Cup. Barbashev, whose previous playoff experience had garnered him a total of nine points in 50 games for the St. Louis Blues, found his name all over the scoresheet for the Golden Knights championship push. When it was all said and done, he’d registered seven goals and 11 assists for 18 points in 22 playoff games, undoubtedly his best post-season performance to-date. Barbashev has traditionally put up forgettable if not sometimes detrimental results defensively, but his offensive outputs have always masked that, and he often does a lot of thankless work in getting the puck on the stick of his teammates. Barbashev had the second highest expected-goal share on the Knights for the 2022-23 post-season, a testament to his ability to aid in controlling the play. Expected to fulfill top line duties this season, the question is whether Barbashev’s offensive run in the playoffs was a mirage or a new standard of expectation for his game moving forward. He’ll certainly be in an environment that will allow him to continue to focus on supporting offensive production. In any case, the Knights have a proven playoff performer here that can fill in anywhere within the top six forward group.

Brett Howden

Howden is a traditional defense-first forward that makes mostly indirect offensive contributions but can be relied upon for a consistent, above-the-line performance defensively on a nightly basis. Minimally impactful outside of an even-strength deployment. In fact, Howden accumulated a total of 41 minutes of special teams play in his 54 total games last season, all of it on the penalty-kill. This year could present the opportunity for him to step into a top six role. From a microdata perspective, there is some evidence from the All Three Zones project to support his time there despite his overall poor outputs offensively. For instance, in games tracked last season, Howden ranked in the top 10 percent of the league’s forwards in shot assists in the offensive zone and shots taken off of passes from a high danger area. Howden has never eclipsed 10 goals in a season or more than 24 points, but the path to doing so seems fairly easy if he can stay in the lineup. Ultimately, Howden’s best work is in maintaining possession in difficult areas of the ice and being a strong defensive presence. Fresh off of a new, two-year contract worth a total of $3.8 million dollars, Howden will be looked at to provide a spark and potentially a few more points than he has previously.

Michael Amadio

Amadio is a former waiver pickup that earned a new contract with the Golden Knights and showed the rest of the league why they trusted him with that deal as this season wore on. Amadio set highs in every bucket and put down 10 points in 16 playoff games. Briefly scratched in the post-season during a scoring drought, Amadio returned to the lineup and finished out the run on a positive note. Amadio’s defensive performance has always been strong, but he’s gone from being slotted as a specialist in that bucket to having much more to provide offensively, especially from a goal-scoring department. Amadio both gets to scoring areas himself and sets up teammates with an increasing level of effectiveness. As a result of this offensive boost, his overall Wins Above Replacment total fell in the 79^th percentile of NHL forwards per JFresh Hockey’s data. Amadio was third on the Knights among forwards in primary shot assists per hour at even-strength. Amadio was deployed in a fashion that gives you the sense he may be in line for more ice time and responsibility this season given that he has provided a moderate boost to the Golden Knights offense and defense over the last two seasons.

William Carrier

Carrier had never scored double-digit goals prior to the 2021-22 season but ended last year with a total of 16 goals in 56 games played. He contributed six points in 18 games to the Stanley Cup win. Carrier’s big body and strong style of skating made him an extremely difficult player to handle in the Vegas system. Carrier had the best expected-goal share of any Golden Knights forward with at least 500 minutes played at even-strength with over 56-percent of the quality scoring chances going his way. Per the All Three Zones project, Carrier was in the 90^th percentile among NHL forwards with regard to scoring chance generation and in the 91^st percentile regarding his ability to generate shots off of the rush. For as good as Carrier’s offense was this year, his defense kept up the same pace. While he isn’t a special team’s player for the Golden Knights, his ability to press the play forward, contribute to offense, and be an impactful defensive player make him a forward that the defensive staff trusts to deploy in a variety of fashions. Last year was an anomalous result to his finishing ability, but if he can continue to score goals in the double digits, it will be a huge boost to the depth scoring for the Golden Knights.

Defense

Alex Pietrangelo

Alex Pietrangelo put in a dominant offensive season for the Golden Knights en route to his second Stanley Cup. Pietrangelo hit a high-water mark of 54 points in 2021-22, which tied his career best that he established in 2017-18 with St. Louis. He followed the regular season up with a playoff performance that saw him register 10 points in 21 playoff games and finish the run with the highest expected goals for rate among any Golden Knights defender in the post-season. Pietrangelo is still among the best defensemen in the league at confidently skating the puck out of the defensive zone and pressing in the offensive zone to generate additional chances and shooting opportunities. He creates offense against the other team’s best players and takes some of the most difficult assignments the Knights defensive unit has to offer. Per the All Three Zones project, he was in the 89^th percentile of league defensemen with regards to his ability to generate exits out of the defensive zone. Pietrangelo is not a strong defensive player but is not the liability defensively of some of his offensively-minded counterparts across the league. Overall, Pietrangelo will continue to take tough minutes for Las Vegas and translate them into offense. He will take minutes at even-strength, power-play, and on the penalty kill, truly making him a player that can be deployed in any fashion and the leader of the Knights defensive unit.

Shea Theodore

Theodore was one of the league’s most dangerous offensive defensemen last year and the only member of the Golden Knights blueline who out-paced Alex Pietrangelo with regard to zone exits last season. With Theodore, you know what you will get: a defenseman that joins the rush, acts as a fourth forward, pinches offensively, and takes risks all over the ice surface. The proof is in the pudding as he had 41 points in 55 regular season games with an encore performance of 13 points in 21 playoff games. Theodore’s offensive impact this season was in the 97^th percentile of NHL defensemen per JFresh Hockey. The All Three Zones project had him in the 93^rd percentile for shot contributions and rush offense. With Theodore, the defensive impact is where the issues arise. Theodore is often simply non-existent for transition defense given his role as an offensive defenseman. Within the zone, he’s best served in his ability to find his way out and provide the offense with a boost. Despite his offensive skillsets, he trailed his peers on the team in power-play contributions to shot and chance generation. Expect Theodore to continue to push the limit offensively and focus on the contributions to transition offense and creating chances off of the rush.

Alec Martinez

Martinez is a more defensive-minded defenseman who takes difficult deployments for the Golden Knights and settles them down. Martinez saw his defense and its on-ice impacts grow by leaps this season. When the regular season finished, he had the 2^nd highest expected-goal share of any defenseman on the team. Martinez’ 244 blocked shots lead the rest of the NHL’s defensemen by a significant margin. His blocked shot rate in 2012-22 was the highest of his entire career. Martinez played a large role in the Golden Knights penalty-kill and was a reliable presence in that environment. He doesn’t handle the puck a lot, but when he does, it’s with confidence and success. Martinez posted his lowest number of giveaways and highest number of takeaways since the 2018-19 season. Martinez seemed to thrive in the defensive zone but had a larger number of struggles in transition. With regard to his ability to mitigate zone entries with possession, he was in the 26^th percentile of NHL defensemen. Expect Martinez to continue to make the most of difficult defensive situations and take on a larger share of even-strength ice time this season. Martinez should continue to act as Pietrangelo’s safety on the top defensive pairing for the Golden Knights.

Brayden McNabb

Brayden McNabb was an underrated, stay-at-home style defenseman who gained bigger notoriety this year on a national stage due to his repeatedly solid performances in the spotlight of the playoffs. McNabb is physical, protects his own zone extremely well, and is the perfect balance for an offensive-minded partner like Shea Theodore. McNabb is very limited in his ability to handle the puck but due to his partner that hasn’t needed to be his focus. Per the All Three Zones project, McNabb had the highest rate of zone entry denials from opposing forwards and that is certainly where he is at his best. He keeps a strong, aggressive gap at the defensive blueline and is physical in his approach. His long reach enables him to force forwards to make uncomfortable decisions. All Three Zones data had him in the 92^nd percentile among NHL defensemen regarding his ability to stifle scoring chances from zone entries. His limited mobility hurt him more on the penalty kill where he has a larger area of ice to cover and more loose puck races to engage in. Overall, the Golden Knights will once again look to McNabb to be a quiet, stabilizing presence within their top four defensive unit.

Goaltending

Logan Thompson

Perhaps no one has been a more pleasant surprise than the undrafted Logan Thompson of the Vegas Golden Knights, who went from being an overager in the WHL to a year of college hockey up in Canada to a minor league-only deal – and finally to the NHL, where just three years after first getting his chance with the Golden Knights, the unlikely team hero found himself with his name on the Stanley Cup.

Thompson was one of the too-many goaltenders that Vegas saw suffer injuries last season, so he’ll need to prove he can stay healthy this upcoming season. But he boasts a lot to love about his game; he’s taken a long-standing willingness to do anything to stop the puck and cleaned up his game reads as he’s gone along, sharpening his positioning so he no longer needs to course-correct as frequently as he used to. Combined with a more conservative base position than fellow former WHL-er Adin Hill, that makes Thompson the goaltender in Sin City who’s less likely to elevate blood pressures and allow open holes. His instincts aren’t quite as top-tier as Hill’s, which makes for a nice tandem of goaltenders that each offer unique strengths in the Vegas net. But ultimately, the affordability of Thompson’s deal with the team alongside Hill’s make it hard not to marvel at just how lucky the team got with their pairing.

Projected starts: 40-45

Adin Hill

The Vegas Golden Knights didn’t exactly see goaltender Adin Hill put up the kind of wunderkind numbers one might have hoped for from a relatively young reclamation project, especially one moving from a pair of rebuilding teams to a playoff contender. But while Hill wasn’t exactly a Vezina candidate during his first year in Vegas, he was exactly what the team needed him to be – just better than league average, and able to avoid any meltdowns statistically en route to the team’s alarmingly fast championship win. In fact, Hill – who doesn’t always play the most technically sound game, but can make acrobatic saves look easy and snag pucks that smaller-statured goaltenders only dream of – managed to put up a clutch postseason performance that helped his team secure their win; he might not have been a Vasilevskiy or a Shesterkin during the year, but he was certainly good enough to get it done when he needed to most.

Hill’s reliance on lightning-fast reflexes and his above-average agility levels, combined with his impressive size and reach, can be both a blessing when he snags last-second pucks and a curse when he does too much and opens up holes that he doesn’t need. But he proved last season that when given more stability up front, he’s got the ability to be consistent enough to rely upon as a starter. And for Vegas, who have him signed to a team-friendly deal that doesn’t require too much commitment on their end, that’s more than good enough.

Projected starts: 35-40

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Fallout from Horvat trade – Veterans offering midseason value – Young players getting a chance

Scott Cullen — Fri, 03 Feb 2023 17:07:03 +0000

NEW YORK, NY - DECEMBER 22: New York Islanders Center Mathew Barzal (13) in action during the first period of the National Hockey League game between the New York Islanders and the New York Rangers on December 22, 2022 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, a look at fallout from the Bo Horvat trade, veterans offering midseason value, young players getting a chance to prove they belong and more in this NHL All-Star break edition.

#1 With all due respect to Matt Nieto going back to Colorado, the first big trade chip to move before the trade deadline was Bo Horvat going from Vancouver to the New York Islanders. Horvat is in the midst of a career season, with 31 goals in 49 games, and he has 11 goals on the power play. That ought to help an Islanders power play that has a league-worst net of 3.57 goals per 60 minutes (4.76 goals for, 1.19 goals against) during five-on-four play. There is most likely regression coming for Horvat. He has scored on a career-high 21.7% of his shots and his on-ice shooting percentage is pushing 11.0%, so even if the opportunity is going to be better on The Island, the percentages are due to fall.

#2 It seems that Mathew Barzal should benefit from Horvat’s arrival. It provides him with a finisher, and it looks like Barzal could slide to the wing to accommodate the new arrival. Barzal has 43 points (12 G, 31 A) in 51 games and that 0.84 points per game is pretty much in line with Barzal’s production over the past five seasons. He has not been able to get back to the point per game pace that he established in his rookie season of 2017-2018.

#3 Heading to Vancouver, left winger Anthony Beauvillier is a 25-year-old who has yet to record a 40-point season but has shown enough offensively that he should get plenty of opportunity in a top-six role with the Canucks. If Vancouver is genuinely rebuilding, they probably need to move another winger or two, and with Ilya Mikheyev done for the season due to a torn ACL, Beauvillier has some hope for better production down the stretch.

#4 The prosect that Vancouver acquired, Aatu Raty, was a second-round pick in 2021. He was expected to be a high first-round pick but had a rough draft year, scoring six points in 35 games in Finland’s Liiga. He rebounded the following season, though, putting up 41 points (13 G, 28 A) in 47 games, helping to re-establish his prospect value. He scored a couple of goals in a dozen games with the Islanders this season, but the 20-year-old is not yet ready for a regular role in the NHL. With more time to develop in the AHL, though, he could provide long-term value in dynasty leagues.

#5 Boston Bruins winger Pavel Zacha is a versatile player who can move around the lineup and, with Jake DeBrusk out, he offers Boston a viable option in a top-six role. Zacha has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in his past 12 games, and while some of that is due to him scoring on 28.6% of his shots, he is giving Boston the secondary scoring that they need to remain at the top of the league.

#6 This was supposed to be a breakout season for second year Florida Panthers center Anton Lundell but that was not happening. In order to shake things up, Lundell has been moved to left wing on the top line, with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, and that is having the desired effect as Lundell has seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 21 shots on goal in the past eight games. As long as he remains in that spot, Lundell has fantasy appeal.

#7 Carolina Hurricanes winger Teuvo Teravainen has had four seasons with more than 60 points, but he has not been producing at that level this season. He missed some time with an upper-body injury, but he is starting to deliver the points. In his past 14 games, Teravainen has 11 points (2 G, 9 A) and has returned to play on the top line with Sebastian Aho.

#8 Although he has flashed potential before, Philadelphia Flyers center Morgan Frost is making the most of his opportunity to play in a scoring role. The 23-year-old has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 29 shots on goal in 14 games since the calendar flipped to 2023. There is some risk associated with Frost because he has not established himself over a long period of time, and head coach John Tortorella is not afraid to make him a healthy scratch, but there are signs that Frost is starting to realize his potential as a scoring center.

#9 Injuries have forced the Toronto Maple Leafs to shuffle their lines and Calle Jarnkrok has given the Leafs a legitimate option in a scoring role. IN 20 games since returning from injury, Jarnkrok has put up 16 points (7 G, 9 A), albeit with just 30 shots on goal. He is averaging 13:37 of ice time per game, his lowest since 2014-2015, but is capable of handling more if necessary.

#10 Quinton Byfield was the second overall pick in the 2020 Draft, and it has taken him some time to live up to his promise, and he’s not there yet, but he appears to be moving the right direction. After producing 15 points (9 G, 6 A) in 16 AHL games, he was called up to the Kings and has a modest six points (2 G, 4 A) in 16 games since returning to the NHL. More importantly, though, he is getting reps at left wing on the top line alongside Anze Kopitar.

#11 The 28^th pick in the 2020 Draft by the Ottawa Senators, Ridly Greig was called up to the Sens after producing 23 points (12 G, 11 A) in 28 AHL games. He opened his NHL career with eight shots on goal against the Islanders and picked up a couple of assists in four games. It is probably too soon to expect significant production from Greig, but he could play a significant role for Ottawa the rest of the way.

#12 Drafted 26^th overall in the 2019 Draft by the Calgary Flames, Jakob Pelletier has been crushing it in the American Hockey League, scoring 98 points (43 G, 55 A) in 99 games across the past two seasons, so he has earned his promotion to Calgary, where he has yet to record a point in four games. However, he is also getting a chance on the second line with Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau, which is at least the kind of opportunity required for Pelletier to live up to his offensive potential.

#13 Although he has just eight points (3 G, 5 A) in 17 games this season, New Jersey Devils left winger Ondrej Palat is worth checking out. He missed two-and-a-half months following groin surgery and it took him a few games to get back into the groove, but now has five points (1 G, 4 A) with 13 shots on goal in the past seven games. He is skating on the left side of Devils captain Nico Hischier, which ought to keep Palat in position to put up a respectable point total.

#14 Last season, St. Louis Blues forward Ivan Barbashev erupted for a career-high 26 goals and 60 points and while he is not producing at the same level this season, he is also a prime candidate to get moved before the March 3 trade deadline. Barbashev has four points (3 G, 1 A) in the past five games, and with several injuries to St. Louis forwards, he has played more than 18 minutes in each of his past four games.

#15 Ottawa Senators right winger Mathieu Joseph has a modest 12 points (3 G, 9 A) in 31 games but keep an eye on him. He is getting a shot at right wing on the top line alongside Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle and getting that opportunity could set Joseph up for bigger production. Remember, he had 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in 11 games last season after he was acquired from the Tampa Bay Lightning.

#16 With word that Vegas Golden Knights captain Mark Stone is underdoing his second back surgery in less than a year, the Golden Knights are left in need of some answers up front. Until external help is acquired, there will be chances for Michael Amadio and Paul Cotter to skate in top six roles. Amadio has just 12 points (7 G, 5 A) in 37 games, but when he had a chance to move up the lineup in December, he put up nine points (5 G, 4 A) with 21 shots on goal in a seven-game span. Cotter has 11 points (8 G, 3 A) in 30 games, but did score six goals in a 13-game span in December and January.

#17 The leading scorer among rookies, Seattle Kraken center Matty Beniers is out with an upper-body injury and that comes on the heels of a five-game scoreless streak. With Beniers out, there is more opportunity for centers Morgan Geekie and Alexander Wennberg to play substantial minutes for the Kraken. Geekie is typically a fourth-line center, but has seven points (1 G, 6 A) in 11 games this season when he has played more than 12 minutes. Wennberg is playing a career high 18:46 per game and has nine points (4 G, 5 A) in his past 14 games but he is also getting first-unit power play time and that is worth tracking.

#18 In the month of January there were 54 players to average at least a point per game (minimum 50 minutes), led by Jack Hughes (1.77), Zach Hyman (1.67), and Connor McDavid (1.67). Naturally, a lot of these players scoring better than a point per game over the course of a month are to be expected, but some of the more surprising names include defensemen Dougie Hamilton (1.23) and Vince Dunn (1.13), as well as forwards Kevin Hayes (1.07), Brandon Hagel (1.00), Tyler Toffoli (1.00), Joel Eriksson Ek (1.00), and Filip Chytil (1.00).

#19 Eriksson Ek ranked 10^th in individual expected goals per game (0.55) in January so his production is backed by underlying numbers that show he is getting quality chances. Others among the Top 30 in January include Carter Verhaeghe (0.50), Blake Coleman (0.47), Michael Eyssimont (0.44), Boone Jenner (0.42), Anders Lee (0.42), and Mason McTavish (0.42). On the other hand, some notable forwards that are closer to the bottom of the list include Jack Roslovic (0.11), Jonathan Toews (0.13), Pavel Zacha (0.13), Evgeny Kuznetsov (0.14), Anthony Mantha (0.14), Ryan Strome (0.14), and Blake Wheeler (0.15).

#20 Don’t forget about goaltender Philipp Grubauer in Seattle. He has been mostly awful, posing an .891 save percentage in 72 games over the past two seasons, but if he can return to something resembling his previous form, there is still a chance for him to earn playing time with a quality Kraken team in front of him. In four starts in 2023, Grubauer has a .940 save percentage and while that is a small sample, a few more quality starts could help him push for more starts.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Cozens Making a Leap, Jarvis, Cirelli, Hall and many more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 09 Dec 2022 16:19:32 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Dylan Cozens is making a leap and it is getting overshadowed by one of his teammates. Seth Jarvis, Anthony Cirelli, Taylor Hall, and many more are offering potential value for fantasy hockey managers.

Dylan Cozens. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The spotlight in Buffalo is shining on center Tage Thompson, and deservedly so after his five-goal game in Columbus, but I’m not here to recommend Tage Thompson. He should be rostered in every league already. But, sticking in Buffalo, center Dylan Cozens is getting overshadowed by Thompson’s monster season. Cozens is a 21-year-old who was the seventh pick in the 2019 Draft. He made nice progress through his first two NHL seasons but has broken through this year. Cozens has a five-game point streak and has produced three points in each of the past three games. Now he is up to 27 points (10 G, 17 A) in 26 games which is more than okay from a second line center.

#2 When he finished last season on the top line for the Carolina Hurricanes, Seth Jarvis looked like he was well on his way to being a first line scoring winger. He struggled, scoring just seven points (3 G, 4 A) in 20 games, and that landed him on the fantasy waiver wire, but he is starting to round back into form. Jarvis has six points (2 G, 4 A) during a six-game point streak and is back on the top line with Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas.

#3 Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli missed the first couple of months while he recovered from shoulder surgery. He has returned to the lineup now and has three assists and 12 shots on goal in his first three games. Though he is known for his high-quality defensive play, Cirelli is skating on the right side of a line with Brandon Hagel and Brayden Point, a good opportunity to put up points. Cirelli has surpassed 40 points twice in his career and even though he has missed 23 games this season, he could still have a shot to hit that threshold.

#4 Known as more a playmaker than a finisher, Boston Bruins left winger Taylor Hall has nevertheless become a goal scorer recently, in part because he is taking more shots. Hall has five goals and 21 shots on goal in the past five games and is now up to 20 points (11 G, 9 A) in 25 games for a Bruins team that is winning almost every night.

#5 Although his shot rate has dropped from 3.44 per game last season to 2.33 shots per game this season, Los Angeles Kings winger Viktor Arvidsson is heating up. In his past 12 games, Arvidsson has a dozen points (4 G, 8 A) and continues to thrive on a line with Trevor Moore and Phillip Danault. That trio has combined for 55.7% of expected goals during five-on-five play.

#6 Erik Haula has somehow managed to score just one goal on 57 shots for the New Jersey Devils this season, but he does have five assists in the past six games. When he has played with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, that line has controlled an astonishing 72.7% of expected goals during five-on-five play. That is the highest rate for any line that has played more than 100 five-on-five minutes together. The leaders in even-strength expected goals for per 60 minutes (minimum 200 even-strength minutes) are Matthew Tkachuk (4.61), Brady Tkachuk (4.56), Patrice Bergeron (4.38), Claude Giroux (4.36), and then a couple of Devils – Tomas Tatar (4.35) and Erik Haula (4.18).

#7 While the top Devils skaters – Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Dougie Hamilton – are obviously rostered in fantasy leagues there is still potential value from the supporting cast, too. Second year right winger Dawson Mercer, for example, has seven points (2 G, 5 A) in the past eight games and takes a regular turn on New Jersey’s first power play unit.

#8 There are precious few positive things going on in Philadelphia this season, but Kevin Hayes has been productive, even as the Flyers are losing on a regular basis. In the past 14 games, the Flyers have won just two games, even as Hayes has put up 16 points (7 G, 9 A) and 48 shots on goal. His production gets a boost when Travis Konecny is healthy as 13 of Hayes’ 28 points this season have come on goals involving Konecny. Hayes has never scored more than 55 points in a season but is on track to surpass that total this season.

#9 While we are searching for value on losing teams, Chicago Blackhawks center Max Domi has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) and 35 shots on goal in the past 13 games. Chicago has only won two of those games, but that has not prevented Domi from making the most of the opportunity he is getting. Part of that opportunity is playing a career-high 18:35 per game and he has won 57% of his faceoffs. It would be the first season of Domi’s career in which he won more than half of his draws.

#10 Since returning from a lower-body injury, Washington Capitals right winger T.J. Oshie has continued to battle. In eight games, the 35-year-old has six points (3 G, 3 A), 23 shots on goal, and 25 hits, for good measure. On a Capitals team that is trying to stay competitive, Oshie remains a valuable piece, and that includes his role on the top power play unit.

#11 Through the first 18 games of the season, Nashville Predators forward Mikael Granlund had managed just one goal on 27 shots. He has since scored five points (3 G, 2 A) in the past five games, and may be better off now that he is back on the wing, skating on a line with rookie Juuso Parssinen and veteran Matt Duchene.

#12 Winnipeg Jets center Adam Lowry typically does not score enough to generate much fantasy interest, but when he is scoring, his physical play does hold some banger league appeal. Lowry has seven points (2 G, 5 A) in the past seven games and, like he has for each of his previous eight NHL seasons, he is averaging more than two hits per game.

#13 It is rarely easy for a backup goaltender to take starts away from the established No. 1 on the team. It is even harder is the No. 1 was the runner-up in Vezina Trophy voting last season. Nevertheless, that is what is happening in Calgary right now. As Jacob Markstrom struggles to find his form, Daniel Vladar has started six of the past eight games, posting a 4-1-1 record and .929 save percentage. That kind of performance allows the Flames to be patient with Markstrom but, for fantasy purposes, Vladar’s value still figures to be short-term. If he continues to play well, then he can complicate that decision to some degree, but Markstrom is likely to return to the starter’s role in the not-too-distant future.

#14 Vladar is one of several rookie goaltenders offering value this season. Logan Thompson in Vegas is the leader, holding a starting role for a first-place team and posting a .918 save percentage in 19 starts. Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner has stepped up, with a .915 save percentage in 15 games, while Jack Campbell has struggled. Carolina’s Pyotr Kochetkov has a .914 save percentage in 10 games and, with Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta not having the best track record for staying healty, Kochetkov could have a significant role.

#15 The Colorado Avalanche are dealing with a terrible run of injuries, especially at forward, where they are missing Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, and Evan Rodrigues. That does not leave Mikko Rantanen with much support. As is stands right now, Alex Newhook and Charles Hudon are flanking Rantanen on Colorado’s top line. Newhook has nine points (6 G, 3 A) in 24 games but has averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time over the past three games. Hudon, the former Montreal Canadiens winger, spent the 2020-2021 season in Switzerland and has 73 points (38 G, 35 A) in 86 AHL games since. In two games since he was recalled, Hudon does not have any points but has put 10 shots on goal.

#16 The Calgary Flames have recalled 5-foot-7 winger Matthew Phillips from the American Hockey League, where he was leading the league with 30 points (15 G, 15 A) in 20 games. The challenge for Phillips will be getting real opportunity with skilled linemates. If the Flames offer that, he just might score enough to secure his place in the NHL. The only other skater in the AHL this year averaging more than 1.50 points per game while playing more than 10 games is Columbus prospect Trey Fix-Wolansky, who has 22 points (10 G, 12 A) in 14 games for Cleveland.

#17 Vegas center Jack Eichel is out with a lower-body injury and that has resulted in Paul Cotter getting a chance to skate on the top line with Chandler Stephenson at center and Mark Stone on right wing. Cotter has six points (4 G, 2 A) in 18 games but is averaging more than 15 minutes of ice time per game in the past three while Eichel has been sidelined.

#18 The career of St. Louis Blues winger Josh Leivo has been marked by stints in the AHL and healthy scratches but when he is given a real opportunity, he has the skill to contribute offensively. Leivo has nine points (2 G, 7 A) in the past 14 games, averaging more than 14 minutes of ice time per game. He is skating with Ryan O’Reilly and Brayden Schenn, not a bad spot to pick up some points.

#19 Although he has played just a dozen games due to injury, Columbus Blue Jackets right winger Patrik Laine is still seeking his first secondary assist of the season. He is one of nine players that has at least nine points and all nine points have been primary points, either a goal or first assist. The others: Alexander Wennberg, Filip Chytil, Josh Leivo, Josh Anderson, Jason Dickinson, Christian Fischer, Blake Lizotte, and Evan Rodrigues. Philadelphia Flyers right winger Travis Konecny has 12 first assists and just one secondary assist.

While it is standard for playmakers to have more primary assists – 80.8% of Connor McDavid’s points are primary points, for example – there is some value to be found if a player has not been grabbing any secondary assists, because there is a lot of luck in that distribution. A few notables with more than 92% of their points as primary points: Nick Paul, Gabe Vilardi, Jonathan Toews, Victor Olofsson, Yegor Sharangovich, and Jake Guentzel.

#20 At the other end of the spectrum, the forwards that have the lowest percentage of primary points (minimum nine points) are: Artturi Lehkonen, Kyle Okposo, Stefan Noesen, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Joel Farabee, and Patrick Kane. All six are at 50% of lower, with Lehkonen only managing 38.9% of his points as primary points. That does not mean to automatically get rid of these players, but it could be a warning sign that they have been fortunate to accumulate more secondary assists.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Top 20 Prospects

Sun, 18 Sep 2022 22:40:07 +0000

SAN JOSE, CA - FEBRUARY 20: Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Logan Thompson (36) skates during a timeout during the NHL game between the San Jose Sharks and the Vegas Golden Knights on February 20, 2022 at SAP Center in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Matt Cohen/Icon Sportswire)

1 - Brendan Brisson C

While some might recognize the Brisson name from Brendan Brisson’s father, NHL super-agent Pat Brisson, Brendan is a player of note in his own right. As another member of the Chicago Steel to Michigan Wolverines pipeline, a set of players that includes quite a few first-round picks, Brisson has for many years had the luxury of playing with top-of-the-line teammates. That might sound like a knock to some but having quality linemates has actually brought out the best in Brisson’s game. Brisson is a talented playmaker who is always reading the ice and looking to find the best way to cut through a defense. At times, Brisson can look like he’s treating his shift like a chess game, diligently considering all potential possibilities of things he can do with the puck before selecting an optimal move. At times, this really works for him. There are shifts where Brisson takes over the game, creates a few chances, and puts his teammates in positions to score in ways that defenses can hardly react to. But there are also shifts where this tendency to think through every problem he faces rather than simply react and rely on his instincts causes him to be ineffective, unable to find his way through a fast-moving, aggressive defense. If Brisson is playing with talented linemates who can get the most out of his patient, calculated offensive style, he can be an effective playmaker. He’ll likely be at his best on a power play, where he’ll have more time and space to orchestrate offensively. If he can round out the off-the-puck flaws in his game and perhaps get a bit quicker, he can be a driver of play in the NHL. The more likely outcome is Brisson finds the future as an offense-first player who sees significant time on the man advantage. - EH

2 - Pavel Dorofeyev LW

With most of his 20-21 season spent in Russia’s VHL (pro) and MHL (junior) leagues, Dorofeyev concluded the season playing for AHL Henderson and immediately opened some eyes with nine goals and 13 points in 24 games. The excitement was warranted as he spent the 21-22 season kicking down the door in the AHL, becoming Henderson’s top scorer with 27 goals and 52 points in 63 games. He also played twice for Vegas leading him to be one of the Golden Knights’ most NHL-ready prospects. One of the most impressive aspects of his development is the continued use of creative play while adjusting his game to not only withstand, but also initiate physical contact. His board work and drive through traffic have been in ascending all season long. A strong transition player, Dorofeyev can dictate the pace when given time and doesn’t need much of that to create new lines of attack and find openings in the defense. These improvements have allowed his puck skills and creativity to unfold to a greater degree. The Golden Knights have seen Dorofeyev as one of the internal assets whose progress has allowed them to pawn off higher rated prospect assets in recent deals. Cap concerns would indicate that Vegas is likely very serious about getting him into the offensive fray within the next two seasons and he should be one of the first call-ups this season should injuries occur. – CL

3 - Zach Dean C

Complete is the name of the game for Zach Dean. There are not many weaknesses to his game. His hands, his skating and the pace of his play are all very good attributes. He can play very aggressively and be very tough to play against defensively as well. His shot is no weak spot either, as he has a very quick and precise release and has no problem getting himself away from pressure, creating some space in order to shoot. His compete level is quite high, and he always has an insatiable hunger for the puck. That said, injuries continue to delay his progression. He struggled with injuries in his draft year, and he had similar issues last season. In fact, an injury also prevented him from participating at team Canada’s WJC camp this summer. Staying healthy is key for Dean, especially given the way that he needs to play to be effective. Vegas will be looking for Dean to take that next step as an offensive star for Gatineau this season. If he does, he should eventually become a quality middle six option for the Golden Knights. If injuries continue to be an issue, Vegas may become concerned that he is not durable enough to withstand the rigors of a pro career. - EB

4 - Lukas Cormier D

Lukas Cormier is an offensive-minded defenseman with his shot being his main attribute. Selected 68^th overall in the third round of the 2020 NHL Draft, Cormier’s game shines the most in the offensive zone, where he mans the blue-line with his booming shot that he uses as much as possible as a playmaking and a scoring tool. His scoring prowess was put on display this year with Team Canada at the WJC where he had a goal and five assists in only seven games on route to a gold medal. However, no one has ever doubted Cormier’s offensive abilities. His back-to-back QMJHL defenseman of the year trophies are impressive and are evidence to the fact that he is elite with the puck on his stick. But in the defensive end, there have always been concerns that Cormier is not big, strong, or engaged enough to be a true top four defender. No question, he has made strides as a defensive player, especially in the last calendar year. His physical engagement has been much more consistent, and he has figured out how to make himself a more difficult player to match up against. As he starts his pro career this year in the AHL, all eyes will be on Cormier to see if he can defend against bigger and quicker forwards. He might still be a bit of a project who will require patience, but his offensive capabilities are unique and do give him the projection of an NHL defender in some capacity. - EB

5 - Daniil Miromanov D

Probably about the oldest and most well-travelled of the prospects detailed in this yearbook. Despite three fairly productive seasons in the QMJHL as an overager, Miromanov was never drafted and made his way through pro leagues in Russia and the Czech Republic before a strong season in the ECHL brought him to the KHL. His breakthrough came with KHL Sochi in 20-21 when he put up 10 goals and 29 points, earning him a free agent shot with the Vegas organization. This past season, his first in the AHL, he amassed 40 points in just 53 games. It led to an 11-game tryout in the big leagues and his ability to remain even-keeled and display his experience has him looking like a true option for the team heading into next season. For the Henderson Silver Knights, Miromanov’s was among the team leaders in both scoring and +/-. With an imposing 6’4”, 203-pound frame, the 25-year-old Russian can appear stiff at times yet is ultimately more mobile than expected. Very clever with the puck on his stick, there is a bit of a magician in there trying to make the best of every situation and happy to sniff out creative plays, a chief reason he was also Henderson’s point man on the power play. Ultimately, he has very heavy wrist and slapshots, and is active in attempting to shut down lanes and put pressure on opposition attackers. What you see is what you get with Miromanov, and Vegas will soon be finding out if he can be more than just a number 8 or 9 blueline option in their system. – CL

6 - Logan Thompson G

Thompson went unselected through his years of NHL draft eligibility before signing as an free agent with the Vegas Golden Knights back in 2020. The GM that signed him in 2020, Kelly McCrimmon, happened to be the former owner of Thompson’s former WHL team, the Brandon Wheat Kings. McCrimmon was around when Thompson first began playing for the Wheat Kings back in 2014. Thompson has had a peculiar path from his junior hockey days to the NHL. He had served as the back-up for Brandon from 2015-17 before taking the reins for the 2017-18 season. As a starter for the Wheat Kings, he had a consistent .908 SV% over two seasons with a GAA over 3.00. After his last year with the Wheat Kings, Thompson found his way to Brock University where he dominated play, finishing with a 2.22 GAA, and .934 SV% in 24 games. He won goaltender and rookie of the year for the Canadian university and was signed to play in the ECHL. Over the next few seasons, Thompson had success in the ECHL, eventually landing a contract with Vegas in 2020. In his first season playing for Vegas’ AHL team, the Henderson Silver Knights, he posted a 1.96 GAA and a .943 SV% in 23 games. He was awarded the AHL’s best goaltender award, alongside being named to both the All-Rookie team and the AHL All-Star team. He also played in his first NHL game that season, recording a shutout. His success continued last season splitting time between the AHL and NHL. In the NHL, Thompson posted a 2.68 GAA and .914 SV% in 19 games. With Robin Lehner facing an injury that is expected to keep him out the entire 2022-23 season, Thompson is expected to carve out a large role for the Golden Knights this season. Time will tell if his unique success story continues. - ZS

7 - Kaedan Korczak D

Korczak was selected 41^st overall in the 2019 NHL draft by the Vegas Golden Knights. Standing at 6’4”, 192 pounds, he is a large defenceman who thrives in his own end. On top of his large frame, he is also a good skater for someone his size. He has the ability to transition the puck end-to-end with his combination of size and speed. He isn’t afraid of getting physical either, often punishing defenders who challenge him. Korczak showed a glimmer of offence with his time in the WHL, posting 33 points in 68 games in his draft year as well as 49 points in 60 games the year after. His offence has dried up since transitioning to the AHL, with the Henderson Silver Knights, with whom he has spent parts of the past two seasons. His first experience with the Silver Knights came during the pandemic 2020-21 season where he played 11 games for them before going back to the WHL. This past season Korczak spent almost the entirety of the year in the AHL, playing 47 games and producing 14 points on top of his solid defence. He was also able to make his NHL debut this year appearing in one game for Vegas. Korczak’s build and play scream future NHL third pair stay-at-home defenceman, expected to provide consistent play in the defensive end and allowing for more offensively gifted defenceman to shine. While it is expected for Korczak to spend the majority of the year in the AHL again, he is only a couple of injuries away from getting a larger opportunity at carving out an NHL role. - ZS

8 - Daniil Chayka D

The 38th overall selection in the 2021 NHL Draft, Daniil Chayka has had an interesting journey thus far and is coming off of a solid season. The former 7th overall selection in the 2018 OHL Draft had a good rookie season, finishing with 14 points (5G,9A) in 56 games. During the 2019-2020 season, Chayka took a step forward and finished with 34 points (11G,23A) in 56 games. During the 2020-2021 season while the OHL was shutdown due to Covid-19, Chayka made the decision to return back to Russia to get some ice time. In his time in Russia, he played in three different leagues, 11 games in the KHL, 10 in the VHL and 5 in the MHL. Chayka also got the opportunity to play in the U20 World Junior Championship. During the 2021-2022 season, Chayka returned to the OHL and had a great season, finishing with 39 points (7G,32A) in 53 games, which was 20th in the league for points by a defenseman, 8th on the team for points and 4th on the team in assists. Chayka’s best assets are his hockey sense and competitiveness. Chayka has a great understanding of how to best utilize his size, having a great reach to quickly take away space and make it difficult to get into the offensive zone and in the slot. His stick is consistently active, applying great pressure on opponents. He has a great motor and is rarely out of the battle, using good physicality. Going into the 2022-2023 season, Chayka will make the return to the OHL and be a leader on and off the ice for the Storm, being a strong defenseman on both sides of the puck. - DK

9 - Matyas Sapovaliv C

The 48th overall selection in the 2022 NHL Draft, Matyas Sapovaliv was one of the best imports in the OHL last season and was a huge asset to a Saginaw Spirit team that struggled and finished 2nd last in the league with the 2nd most goals against. In the 2020-2021 season, Sapovaliv spent his time split between the Czechia U20 league, Czechia tier 2 league and the U18 World Championship. Sapovaliv made his way to the OHL in the 2021-2022 season and was able to quickly adjust to the league and was heavily relied on by the Spirit, playing a lot of minutes and being utilized on both special teams. At the end of the season Sapovaliv finished with 52 points (18G,34A) in 68 games, which was 4th on the team in points and 4th in the league for points by a rookie. Sapovaliv also spent time that year playing in the U18 World Championship and also the U20 World Junior Championship. Sapovaliv’s best assets are his playmaking and hockey sense. He has the ability to see passing lanes before they open up and connect tape to tape passes with precision at high pace. He consistently makes smart decisions with and without the puck, playing a responsible game. He uses his size very well, utilizing his reach to apply pressure and make it difficult to play against. His responsible play and strong defensive game make him an asset on the penalty kill, using an active stick and physicality to breakup and shutdown chances in the defensive zone. Going into the 2022-2023 season, Sapovaliv will continue to be a top player on a much better Spirit team, giving him more opportunity to increase his point totals and help him gain more confidence. - DK

10 - Ivan Morozov C

After two good years in the KHL, Morozov inked his ELC with Vegas late last season (allowing him to play some games with Henderson in the AHL playoffs), which means that the power center will be starting this year in North America. Morozov is a strong two-way center who can put his head down and power his way to the net. He has good speed and is difficult to knock off stride once he builds a head of steam. His size, strength, and speed does make him a possible bottom six candidate, but is he skilled enough to be a top six contributor? Consistency has always been an enemy of Morozov at the KHL level and how he adjusts to playing in North America is anyone’s guess. His upside does remain a serious question mark. Does he have the hands and creativity to be a scoring line player in North America? Do his issues with consistency point to IQ and processing issues? Already with great depth, Morozov will most likely start in the AHL with Henderson. From there, it will depend on his play. If he plays well, he probably moves to Vegas quickly as one of the team’s first injury call-ups. - BO

11 - Jakub Brabenec

A skilled playmaking center, Brabanec was terrific for Charlottetown of the QMJHL in his first season in North America. He has great offensive awareness but needs to continue adding strength.

12 - Jonas Rondbjerg

The big Danish winger split last year between Vegas and the AHL, his best season as a pro yet. Armed with a new three-year deal, he figures to be a long-term fixture in the Golden Knights’ bottom six.

13 - Jordan Gustafson

A third-round selection in 2022, Gustafson is already a terrific two-way center because of how well he processes the game. Adding quickness and speed to his game is a must moving forward.

14 - Isaiah Saville

Saville’s three-year tenure at UNO was solid, but unspectacular. However, he was terrific in a brief stint at the AHL level to finish last season. A highly athletic netminder, Vegas will be looking for Saville to maintain that strong level of play over a full season with Henderson.

15 - Jackson Hallum

Hallum is an attacking forward who knows only one speed. His year in the USHL last season was terrific and he will try to be an immediate impact player on a deep Michigan Wolverines team this season.

16 - Peter Diliberatore

An intelligent two-way defender, Diliberatore was solid as a first year pro this season with Henderson, playing big minutes in the AHL. His NHL upside may be somewhat limited, but there’s a strong chance he plays in some capacity.

17 - Connor Corcoran

Injuries wiped out Corcoran’s first pro season, so Vegas was careful with him in his first full pro year, split between the ECHL and the AHL. He was solid at both spots. Corcoran has great scoring instincts for a defender but will need to prove he can defend at the pro level.

18 - Paul Cotter

The power forward has improved in each of his first three pro seasons and was rewarded with a brief callup to Vegas last season. He is in contention to play a bottom six role for the Golden Knights this year.

19 - Jiri Patera

A former free agent signing by the Golden Knights, Patera has been all over the place in recent seasons. He likely competes with Isaiah Saville for ice time at the AHL level this season behind veteran Michael Hutchinson.

20 - Jakub Demek

The big winger was solid for Edmonton of the WHL in his first North American season, helping the Oil Kings win a WHL title. He should be in line for an even bigger role this season.

NUMBERS AT WORK: Weekly Highlights and Observations – 11/15/2021 – Team of the Week: Vegas – What’s Wrong With: Seattle – Microstats 3 Stars

Corey Sznajder — Tue, 16 Nov 2021 22:12:53 +0000

Team of the Week: Vegas Golden Knights

There were a lot of worthy teams to choose from this week, but we’re going to focus on the resurging Vegas Golden Knights, who have salvaged a terrible start in winning eight of their last 10 games. The message through the first two months was how they had to weather the storm while their top forwards returned from injury. Everyone not named Jonathan Marchessault or Reilly Smith has been on the shelf and they have another one waiting with the recent trade for superstar center Jack Eichel), so they have to do what they can to stay above water while the cavalry gets healthy.

It looked like a tough sell at the beginning of the month. They couldn’t score, injuries resorted their team to more of a pop-gun offense and their team defense looked in shambles. Since November, they’ve righted the ship and this past week was a sign that they might be turning the corner, winning all three of their games. The most impressive of which being their 3-2 victory over a good Minnesota team where they got a couple of goals from deep in their organizational depth chart in the form of Paul Cotter and Jonas Røndbjerg.

What I love about these clips is that it’s two low-profile rookies scoring goals that you would see in almost any Vegas game the past few years. Search Alex Tuch highlights, and they would look just like this. The forward finds an opening, waits for a pass and then lets his skill do the work in a one-on-one matchup. Vegas has gotten a lot of these looks this year, but they’ve had a devil of a time converting on them. Just ask Keegan Kolesar, who is still waiting for his first goal of the year despite generating 27 scoring chances in 15 games. Vegas has been begging for anyone in their bottom-six to see the scoresheet and they’re finally started to get that this past week with these two call-ups making the most of their chances. Cotter was sent back to the AHL after this game to make room for the returning Mark Stone, but he and Røndbjerg made very good first impressions that could go a long way if Vegas’ other depth forwards continue to struggle.

While the goals were nice, this does illustrate one of the problems Vegas has had this year, which is the lack of sustained possessions and playing more of a pop-gun offense compared to year’s past. With the exception of Smith and Marchessault, Vegas forwards have had to do most of their damage off the rush and it’s put more stress on their defense. Not just in terms of trading chances, but with how aggressive they play in the offensive zone. The Knight’s defense was one of the best in the league at generating chances and acting as the fourth forward. They had more shots generated off cross-seam passes and off plays from behind the goal line than any other team last year. The strategy hasn’t changed this year, but the dissipating forward talent has taken its toll on their defense a bit. Jared Spurgeon’s goal from Thursday’s game is a good example of that.

Notice how Nic Hague (14 on Vegas) pinches along the left wall after the dump-in. It’s a routine play for Vegas, but the Wild make a quick exit. There’s a forward back to cover, but his man doesn’t score the goal. Instead, it’s a cutting Jared Spurgeon, who wins the race against Hague (who had his momentum carrying him the other way when he missed the puck on his pinch) to score the goal. If you look at a lot of the goals Vegas has given up this year, a lot of it is from the defense being over aggressive while the puck is in front of them and it’s how they have to play while their top forwards are on the mend. Sometimes it works, as we’ve seen with Shea Theodore having four points in his last three games but even then, most of his goals have come off faceoff plays and d-to-d passes rather than off the rush, which is what Vegas has struggled at. Theodore and Pietrangelo have been under scrutiny for their defensive play this year and while that is starting to correct itself, it’s hard to ignore the trickledown effect from the forward injuries.

Vegas’ three most relied on defenders are in the “overworked” quadrant of this chart, which means they’re getting targeted by opposing forwards a lot and they’re giving up a high number of chances when other teams enter the zone against them. If you look at their game-by-game stats from an Expected Goals perspective, you’ll see that it’s a lot of very good games mixed with some awful games. So, there is a major feast-or-famine element to their defense now and the team’s results have followed suit. Is this a result of their defense playing more aggressive in the offensive zone and getting burned when their risks don’t pay off? Vegas runs their offense through their defense corps more than most teams and if the forwards aren’t as in-sync as they were last year, guys like Pietrangelo and Theodore are going to get stretched more. The puck either has to stay higher in the zone or the defense has to do more to retrieve pucks if the forwards can’t create any sustained pressure. Vegas’ top-four is good enough to handle this (although getting Martinez back for more than one game would be nice), but there is a higher risk of turnovers leading to rush chances the other way with one defenseman being left on an island. Is this something that can be corrected once the team gets healthy? Possibly, but you’re going to see some extreme results on both sides of the coin from the Knights’ top players until then.

The good news for the Knights is that the reinforcements are on their way. Mark Stone returned this Saturday, Alec Martinez returned before taking a skate to the face early in the Minnesota game and they have a major addition coming in a few months with Jack Eichel. That and they’ve managed to weather the storm with this recent 10-game stretch and will have to tread water until everyone is healthy. Vegas is still a good team who likely be in a playoff spot come May, but some of these cracks in the armor show that they aren’t the runaway favorites in the division anymore.

Top Microstat Performances:

WINNIPEG, MB – April 17: Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) skates in on Winnipeg Jets defenseman Derek Forbort (24) during the regular season game between the Winnipeg Jets and the Edmonton Oilers on April 17, 2021 at the Bell MTS Place in Winnipeg MB. (Photo by Terrence Lee/Icon Sportswire)

Connor McDavid vs. Bruins

McDavid is in a class of his own when it comes to how ridiculous he is in transition, so I’m going to make an effort not to feature him every week. It’s tough to do that when he has a game like he did against Boston last Thursday. McDavid carried the puck in on all nine of his zone entries, three of which led to scoring chances (which is really tough to do in one game). He also contributed to nine shots at even strength, producing three scoring chances and setting up two.

Rewatching the footage was interesting because it was more like a chess match than McDavid just dominating from the onset. He could gain the line against Boston’s defense but couldn’t get past the first layer for most of the first period. Then in the second he started to find openings, flying the zone for a breakaway on one opportunity and retrieving the puck in the corner to setup Zach Hyman for a goal late in the second period. He also led a couple of give-and-gos. He finished the game with only one point, but it could have easily been another three point night for him with some better luck/finishing.

Roman Josi vs. Blues

Nashville is low-key one of the hottest teams in the league, currently riding a three game win streak while boasting some very strong underlying numbers at five-on-five. It’s been a by-committee effort from them. Matt Duchene found his scoring touch again, Mikael Granlund is producing, Luke Kunin is off to a great start, but it all comes back to their captain Roman Josi. The star defenseman has been the gold standard for puck-rushing defensemen in recent seasons and we saw a little of that in their overtime win over St. Louis in Thursday night.

Josi had eight zone entries, seven of which were with control of the puck. It’s a high number for a defenseman, but a typical game for Josi. However, the way he did this was a little different than in years past. Instead of going end-to-end, he wasn’t the first guy back to retrieve the puck on a lot of these plays, deferring to his partner Dante Fabbro. Why this is important is that it gives him more options when carrying the puck through neutral ice. He’s already by the first forechecker, so there’s going to be more open ice and more support options with him. It gives Nashville a different layer to their offense and makes their rush chances a little more dangerous instead of having Josi creating something out of nothing. Josi might get all the stats, but all of Nashville’s roster deserves some recognition for how they’ve played the past 10 games.

Troy Terry

It’s amazing what starting the season with a couple of goals can do for your confidence. Anaheim’s Tory Terry has been on fire to start the year with 20 points in 15 games and Sunday night’s game against Vancouver was just another night at the office for him. Always very skilled and active with his stick, the roadblock for Terry was turning highlight reel plays into consistent results. So far, he’s been able to do that and then some.

He had the puck on a string all night, producing three scoring chances and setting up 15 shots on goal (including power plays). Everything just looked so easy for him, as he was doing a little of everything. Quarterbacking Anaheim’s power play from the right wall, helping them lead breakouts (6 exits with possession), leading rushes (6 zone entries) and being a good support player in the offensive zone when he wasn’t the one spearheading the rush. Looking like a nice depth piece who could maybe hit 40 points in a good season, Terry has played like Anaheim’s version of Mark Stone to start the year. Might be an extreme comparison, but he really has been that good and it will be interesting to see where he levels out at once the points stop coming so easily. He probably won’t shoot at 30% forever, but he’s still an incredibly fun player to watch. Those who can’t stay up for Anaheim games are in for a treat as the Ducks make their way through the East Coast this coming week.

What’s Wrong With…?

VANCOUVER, BC - OCTOBER 05: Seattle Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer (31) tracks the play during their preseason NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks on October 5, 2021 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

Seattle Kraken

Unlike Vegas, the Kraken’s start has resembled more of what people expect from an expansion team, winning only four of their first 15 games and sitting at the bottom of the Pacific Division. They’re a weird team to breakdown because on one hand, it’s an expansion team that didn’t have much offensive firepower heading into the year. On the other hand, they invested heavily in team defense and goaltending both in the expansion draft and free agency. They currently have the worst team save percentage in the league (both at 5v5 and in all situations) with their starter Philipp Grubauer posting an ugly .880 mark over 12 games.

I tend to defer to goalie experts since it’s not my area of expertise, but it’s hard to believe that Grubauer would become a replacement level goalie one year removed from being a Vezina finalist. Even when you factor in how his current situation is a total 180 from where he was in Colorado, where he maybe saw 10 scoring chances a night at most, it was tough to see him playing this poorly. Some of the goals in the Anaheim game were tough to watch, particularly the two point shot goals he let in.

These are the types of goals that will probably be stopped more frequently as the year goes on. The Kraken’s five-on-five offense has started to come around, sitting in the middle of the pack in terms of goal-scoring (a hot streak from Jordan Eberle is mostly to thank for that), so the goaltending will likely trend towards the league average. Grubauer should settle in and learn his defense’s tendencies more, which should lead to fewer leaky goals.

Their power play, on the other hand, will be a tougher riddle to solve. Only the depleted Pittsburgh Penguins have scored fewer power play goals per 60 minutes this year and even that is slightly boosted from the late tally they scored against Minnesota. The lack of a go-to guy hurts the most here, as they’ve resorted to Mark Giordano point shots as their default play with Morgan Geekie firing one-timers from the right circle at the secondary option. Their best option, Jordan Eberle, has only one power play goal all season because he’s stuck waiting for a pass in the slot or a rebound in front of the net. Getting Jared McCann’s shot back in the lineup helps, but the Kraken have had a tough time getting the puck on the stick of their best player’s when playing with the man advantage.

They’ve gone to some interesting tactics to fix this, one of which included putting the towering defenseman Jamie Oleksiak in the netfront role, but nothing has really worked. They can only score if they get a passing lane open below the faceoff circles, which are pretty easy to eliminate if you’re a penalty killer. They have some players who are patient and creative enough to get the pass through the box from the halfwall (hi Marcus Johansson) to complement some of their more tenacious netfront players like Yanni Gourde, so it will be interesting to see if they can get something to work here as the season progresses.