Paul Stastny – McKeen's Hockey

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: CAROLINA HURRICANES VS NEW JERSEY DEVILS – A real test of talent vs. experience and coaching

Corey Sznajder — Tue, 02 May 2023 21:01:38 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - MARCH 12: New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes (86) scores a goal during the National Hockey League game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the New Jersey Devils on March 12, 2023 at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

The Setting

Both teams won their first round series in somewhat unconventional fashion. The Devils overcame losing their first two games on home ice to take down the Rangers, making the bold switch to rookie Akira Schmid in goal. Carolina, meanwhile, took care of the Islanders in six games despite getting outscored at five-on-five. They played a close series, keeping the games tight and leaning on their power play when they needed to. Unfortunately, they’re also down another top-six forward after Teuvo Teravainen suffered a broken wrist in Game 2, which means their forward corps is in even more of an “all hands on deck” situation now.

They also took somewhat of a bold approach in goal, rolling with Antti Raanta for the first five games before making the switch to the oft-injured Frederik Andersen in the series clincher. The gamble paid off, as Andersen shut the door for Carolina in Game 6 and gave them an opportunity to complete their comeback. It makes an interesting decision for Game 1, but the Hurricanes have never been afraid to rotate goalies and this situation will be no different. That being said, this type of setup is easier in the regular season when it’s easier to shake off one loss and move on. Making the wrong call in a playoff series is obviously a different story, especially on a team like Carolina where scoring one goal is like trying to dig up gold in the mountains.

The second round has also been a common roadblock for Brind’Amour’s Canes, reaching this point the past two seasons and losing both times despite having the home ice advantage. The road for them is a little easier this year with the Rangers out and Boston going home in stunning fashion, but it’s actually tougher because the East is truly open season now. The Devils have spent years building up this talented core and look like they are ready to take the next step. Jack Hughes had a superstar caliber season, Nico Hischier will create matchup problems against a depleted forward corps and Dougie Hamilton is out to show Carolina he is a playoff performer and one they let get away.

The Devils also showed some real resilience in the first round. There are veterans on the roster, but it’s also this group’s first time in the playoffs in a while, or in their career in the case of Jack Hughes. There were some questions on if the moment was too big for them after dropping the first two games at home in blowout fashion. They responded by winning three straight and closing out the series in a dominant Game 7. It’s one thing to win, but to shutout a team that had you on the mat not even two weeks ago shows some real growth in how this team faces adversity. Carolina had a lot of moments like this early in their playoff career and it led them all the way to the Conference Final in Brind’Amour’s first year. The Devils are looking to go on a similar run.

The Matchup

In a normal situation, the big question around the Hurricanes is can they get enough goals, and will anybody step up when the games get tight? This series might be a little different because they’re going up against one of the most potent rush offenses in the NHL. The Devils are a team that carried the puck in at will all season and were one of the few teams in the playoffs who could do this in the first round. They scored a couple of big goals against the Rangers off controlled entries, including one in overtime and are capable of creating offense from a controlled breakout sequence. Dougie Hamilton and John Marino are very good at doing this and will usually give their forwards a great pass on the tape to help them break structure.

Heck of a rush from a standstill. pic.twitter.com/uoHHDxB1Uo

— Corey Sznajder (@ShutdownLine) March 17, 2023

This should create problems for Carolina, but their defense is a little more robust than what they saw against the Rangers. Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns are more likely to get in your face and angle you off to the boards as opposed to Lindgren or Trouba who are going to shadow you into the zone and block shots. Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce play more similar to the Rangers, using the “bend but don’t break” approach and will be the pair Jersey should target if they want to put Carolina in an open hole. This was a rock-solid duo for Carolina during the regular season but playing the tough matchups for 82 games takes a toll on you around this time of year. The number of hits they’ve taken looked like it started to add up in the Islanders series, as they were on the ice for six of the Isles 11 goals at five-on-five. The Devils might not have the scoring depth they did earlier in the season, but they can make this pair work a lot if they get a step on them at the blue line and create some tough situations for Carolina to defend. The saving grace for Carolina is their third pair is very mobile and capable of handling defensive minutes. Shayne Gostisbehere is still looking for his first power play point, but his play at five-on-five has been spectacular and gives Carolina an extra layer during the 3^rd/4^th line shifts.

As for where Carolina’s goals are going to come from, the answer is also their defense corps. They’ve always acted as more of a complement to the forwards, and this is even more true with the injuries Carolina has up front. Brent Burns and Jaccob Slavin were more active in the Isles series than they were all season (which is saying something for Burns) and you can look for them to catch New Jersey’s forwards out of position with how much attention they draw high in the zone. They’re also super aggressive with pinching to keep pucks in, which can go both ways with how much New Jersey loves to attack in transition. Counterattacks are what killed the Hurricanes against the Rangers last year and it’s something the Devils will go to school on. Hughes, Hischier, Meier all have the talent to make them pay on this and they also got some goals from their depth lines in the Rangers series. The more times they burn Carolina off counterattacks, the more risk-adverse and point-shot heavy the Hurricanes become, so planting the seed of doubt in their heads early will play a huge factor. Granted, this also involves some risk for the Devils with having the forwards challenge the points and fly the zone. It opens them up to more shots and chances against but that’s a risk you might be willing to take against Carolina.

The X Factor

Both teams managed to advance in the first round despite limited or no production from some of their top players. Timo Meier managed an astonishing zero points in 7 games despite leading the team in scoring chances and playing very well in the Rangers series. It’s only a matter of time until he starts to see some results, but the playoffs can be cruel. The Hurricanes style of defending can also be the best or the worst thing for him because they do not mind giving up chances from close-range as long as the shooter doesn’t have a lot of room to make a move. Meier specializes in going to the net and scoring on brute force, but these are generally lower-percentage plays compared to shots with movement and space. Something has to give.

As for the Hurricanes, they didn’t get much from their leading scorer Martin Necas, scoring only one power play goal all series and looking lost at five-on-five. If the series starts to open up to the Devils terms, Necas is the guy they need to make a difference and he (along with Jesperi Kotkaniemi) struggled with that in the first round. The Devils defensive structure might be a little easier to break than the Islanders physical style, but the playoffs have been tough for Necas in his career. This line in particular was Carolina’s worst against the Islanders, and they spent more time running around in their own zone instead of playing with the puck. When they did get the puck, it was often thrown away in the neutral zone or on a nothing play on the cycle. They showed some flashes of what makes them so dangerous in Game 1, so Carolina is hoping they can see some of this come to life because they will be needed with the Devils having the advantage in forward depth.

The Prediction

This is going to be a real test of talent vs. experience and coaching because the Devils have the clear advantage in the former. The latter is where Carolina can create an advantage. Lindy Ruff made a questionable lineup decision in scratching Jonas Siegenthaler after the Devils lost Game 1 against New York and the physical presence Carolina has could force them into more situations like that. When you’re undermanned, you have to make the most out of the tools you’re given. Carolina’s been able to do that so far, getting goals from the likes of Paul Stastny, Jesper Fast and Mackenzie MacEachern. Jersey should be licking their chops at the forward lines they can roll out against that group, but Carolina’s defensive play is enough to turn most games into a coin-flip. Even if they fall behind, they can own the boards and the territorial play enough to where it’s a tie or a one-goal game. Then it’s just a matter of who can score that big goal when it matters.

Carolina takes a couple gut-punches in this series but takes it in six.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – CAROLINA HURRICANES – NHL Player Profiles

Corey Sznajder – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 22:10:01 +0000

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 28: Carolina Hurricanes center Seth Jarvis (24) against the New York Rangers during Game 6 of round 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs on May 28, 2022 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Sebastian Aho

The 24-year-old center has been Mr. Everything for the Hurricanes since joining the team back in 2016, leading the team in most statistical categories while producing at a point-per-game clip for the fourth year in a row. He has gone from the team’s best offensive player to their do-it-all player, frequently playing over 20 minutes a night and getting the matchups usually reserved for Jordan Staal. This includes heavy usage on the penalty kill, an area where he isn’t afraid to push for offense. He embodies Carolina’s tenacious playing style. Looking to pressure and forecheck first but will create if the opportunity presents itself. His explosive skating and great vision give him plenty chances to do this but his knack for goal-scoring is what sets him apart. Whether it’s from the bumper spot or in front of the net, Aho was a pain for goaltenders, potting a career high 37 goals with 13 of them coming on the power play. Game-breakers come in different packages and while Aho creates a lot in transition, most of his goal-scoring comes off “ugly” plays. He will always find a way to make space for himself off a cycle, get to a loose puck in the crease or get a decent one-time off from an awkward angle. This makes him the Hurricanes MVP when considering everything else he brings to the table.

Andrei Svechnikov

While passing the Michigan torch to Trevor Zegras, Svechnikov has emerged as one of the better playmakers in the league, although his assist total didn’t reflect that. Even after a 30-goal season, it felt like he left some offense on the table due to goalposts or poor finishing luck, both from him and his linemates. Creating offense has been so effortless for him since he came into the league and as he gets stronger, it’s been easy for him to get a step on defenders off the rush or winning a battle in front of the net. His underlying stats reflect this, as he is one of the best players in the league at creating scoring chances and high danger passes. It’s plausible to think there’s another level to Svechnikov’s game when taking this into account, especially with scoring increasing across the league. Right now, he’s in that upper echelon of players but inconsistent scoring along with his habit of taking countless undisciplined stick penalties keep him from the elite tier. He could easily be the best player on the Hurricanes by this time next year, as it only takes one stretch where everything clicks to break that glass ceiling.

Teuvo Teravainen

Sometimes good players benefit from playing in great situations and that was the case for Teravainen, scoring 9 power play goals from the right circle as PKs focused on Aho and getting plenty of lay-up scoring chances from Svechnikov. Primarily known as a playmaker and someone you’d have to beg to shoot the puck, Teravainen regained some of his goal-scoring touch and made the most of getting to play with some talented linemates. It’s nothing out of the ordinary for him, as he’s usually Aho’s wingman but his role is more about giving his linemates space, quick passes from the boards and great defensive positioning rather than highlight reel goals. As one of the smartest and longest tenured players on the team, Teravainen can probably excel in any role coach Brind’Amour puts him in. He might be leaned on for more goal-scoring now with Trocheck and Niederreiter going out the door and Pacioretty not available until February. Some of the extra offense they got from Teravainen came at the expense of his usually elite defensive play, which is a sacrifice the Hurricanes might be willing to make if they need him to be more than just the steady, complementary piece on the top line.

Max Pacioretty

When healthy, Pacioretty is exactly what the Hurricanes needed in the playoffs. A winger who can give them an “easy” goal while being a fit for the team’s forechecking system. Unfortunately, they won’t have him in their lineup for the first four months of the season, as he will be recovering from a torn Achilles tendon. This is after a season where he was limited to only 39 games after a foot injury in October and wrist surgery in December. Scoring only seven goals in the 22 games after surgery, it’s fair to wonder if he is still has the power behind his shot that made him such a coveted goal-scorer. Not that players haven’t recovered from injuries before, but the Hurricanes will only have Pacioretty for this season and need an immediate impact out of him. We saw him adjust after the injury, scoring most of his goals from close range or off deflections instead of the perimeter and finding sneaky ways to get himself open. Carolina was a perfect match for him on paper, as they’re a team that dominates the territorial play and needs more finish. Pacioretty should give that to them in theory, but they will need to wait awhile before seeing it in action.

Jordan Staal

Now in his mid-30’s, Staal got off to the slowest start of his career, tallying only two goals and 11 points through the first 41 games. His size and strength kept him high in the lineup, but the lack of offense was a genuine concern for the Canes captain. Then the switch flipped in the second half of the year and the went on a mini tear, scoring 15 goals in his final 37 games and finishing with a respectable scoring line. Staal does so much for the team as their top defensive center that any offense he produces is just gravy, but those who have watched him for awhile knew it was a matter of time before the dam broke for him. His line with Nino Niederreiter and Jesper Fast was very important for the Hurricanes if they needed a good shift after a goal or when they got hemmed in. The approach was very basic, get below the goal line and go to work, but it was the team’s identity and eventually Staal got some reward for it. Niederreiter leaving might be a big hit to Staal’s goal-production, but the Hurricanes have enough worker bee type wingers that they should be able to find a good running mate for him this year. Hopefully the offense will be a little more consistent.

Seth Jarvis

It was impressive how seamlessly Jarvis fit into the Hurricanes lineup. Not seeing his first game until Halloween, it was obvious from the get-go that he wasn’t going back to the WHL anytime soon. His speed and insane lower body strength made him a fit on the fourth line and he quickly earned a promotion to the top-six. Fitting in as a player who could bring a high-motor element to Aho’s line for quick-strike offense and as a grinder who could get Aho or Svechnikov the puck from below the dots or vice versa. Being a right-shot wing also helped, as it was easier for him to receive some of Aho’s passes in the slot or off give-and-go’s in the neutral zone. Combine that with the pace he plays at and Jarvis was exactly what the team needed heading into last year and someone they could heavily rely on for offense next year. Only 20 years old, he should be trending upwards but there is going to be more pressure on him to produce with some of the roster departures. Jarvis was arguably the team’s best forward in the playoffs, which is a great sign if the Hurricanes want him to be a core player going forward.

Martin Necas

One year ago, Necas looked like an emerging star. The way he processed the game was so different from everyone else on the team, creating offense out of nothing and pulling the Hurricanes back into games on his own. He had his flaws, but they were the kind you live with because he looked like the type of player who could shift the momentum on a dime. Unfortunately, this didn’t carry over. Offense didn’t come as easy for Necas and he found himself trying to do too much on his own, leading to a lot of missed plays and prolonged scoring droughts. The talent is still there, he is one of the Hurricanes best players at setting up shots, but he had trouble when no passing options were available, and he had to take the puck to the net on his own. He would circle the net or get caught in between passing and shooting, leading to missed chances or him shoveling the puck on goal from an awkward angle. Quicker decision making is required with the Hurricanes, but the cerebral nature of Necas’ game is what makes him a special talent and you don’t want to take that away. He had a good season and was a big part of Carolina’s aggressive penalty kill, but there is another level to his game that Carolina will have to unlock.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Carolina’s decision to offer-sheet Kotkaniemi and treat him as if he’s an older prospect was a little confusing. The 22-year-old spent most of last season on the fourth line and only saw an increased role in short spells. The decision to sign him to a seven-year contract is a steep bet, making him part of the team’s core going forward. His first year with Carolina was solid, but there is always an asterisk when you’re projecting someone who played fourth line minutes to jump into a 2C role. He played good minutes in Montreal, but some similar issues remain. He has one of the best shots on the team, but it takes an extra second for him to release it and will opt for the simple play more times than not. Most of his offense was off long cycles where the team was already setup in the offensive zone and while he made some progress there, it was against a lot of depth defensemen and checking line players. Some players can make the jump to the top-six seamlessly and Kotkaniemi will be setup to succeed with Carolina’s great depth on the wings. It might work in his favor, as he will have some more space to create instead of having to constantly fight off checks on the fourth line. He will also be tasked with carrying more of a workload in transition and the defensive zone, something he can do but didn’t have much of a role in last year. The former third overall pick might not live up to his draft status, but he has shown signs of becoming a good middle-six center, which is what the Hurricanes are paying him to be, if he can make the ice-time jump.

Jesper Fast

Someone is going to have to pick up the slack with Carolina’s offense and a dark horse candidate for that is Jesper Fast. He was quietly one of the team’s better 5v5 goal-scorers last year, recording a career-high 14 goals most of which coming while standing in front of the net after Nino Niederreiter or Jordan Staal won a puck below the goal-line. A responsible defensive forward, Fast has shown some offensive flashes in the past and the defined role on Jordan Staal’s line worked to his favor. Most of his game is based on positioning and making quick plays to help with breakouts and being a disruptive force on the forecheck, but he got to show some of his skill last year. Having some offensive pop on top of posting some of the best underlying numbers on the team is never a bad thing. It’s tough to say if his goal-scoring ways will continue last year, as he lost a key linemate in Nino Niederreiter. That said, he should continue to be a key part of the Canes third line. He could see some second power play unit time, as he played the netfront role in the past.

DEFENSE

Brent Burns

Everyone knows what they’re getting with Brent Burns, so the two questions heading into this year are how much he will play and how will switching teams effect his point total. The big change with him over the last two years is that his shot volume totals have plummeted, which in turn hurt his counting stats. Burns production has declined along with the Sharks play and now he’s going to a team notorious for spending most of the game in the offensive zone. Logic suggests that Burns will see a bit of a return to form, as his puck skills haven’t declined as much as his point totals suggest. Burns was still one of the better blue-liners in the league at setting up scoring chances, creating offense off the rush and exiting the zone. The only thing that has been missing is the shot volume and ability to command the offensive zone like he did in the Sharks heyday. Will that change with the Hurricanes and their strong forecheck, or will it be similar to last year with the Sharks as the Canes have seen some of their forward talent leave via free agency? It will be interesting to see this work in action. He brings a similar profile to what they had in both Dougie Hamilton and Tony DeAngelo but is much older with two careers worth of ice-time on his tires.

Jaccob Slavin

The modern-day shutdown defenseman, Slavin is the type of player who could put up zero points and still have a positive impact. There are few players in the league who are as good at skating forwards into a corner or using their stick as him. He also covers a ton of ground in the defensive zone, disrupting most plays before they even start and quickly getting the puck out of the zone to relieve pressure. He was tasked with more of an offensive role last year with Tony DeAngelo as his partner. He ended up having a career year in points and showed some real upside there, especially with shooting for deflections and making soft passes to the front of the net from the left point. It was the most growth he has shown in that part of the game, at least at even strength, running the power play is something he hasn’t quite figured out yet. While he didn’t play pure shutdown minutes, Slavin still played 23-25 minutes a night and was the Jenga piece for Carolina’s blue line. If he had an off night, it was usually bad news for the Canes. Those were few and far between though as he had a stellar season and adapted to playing in more offensive situations. This should continue next year with the roving Brent Burns projected to be his defense partner.

Brett Pesce

Looking at Brett Pesce’s profile and watching him play is quite the contrast. He’s tall but not towering, has a good frame but isn’t physically intimidating. His shot isn’t very powerful, a great skater with good edges but not a burner like Cale Makar. He looks like someone who would top out as a depth defenseman at the NHL level, but he is one of the better shutdown defenders in the league. Playing a pure defensive role with Brady Skjei for the past two years has been up-and-down for him. He can still break-up plays at the blue line better than most and can skate his way out of pressure. His defensive impact, however, usually varies depending on who he is paired with. A predictable partner like Slavin or Calvin de Haan will yield good results for him while a more aggressive, roaming partner like Skjei or Edmundson will leave him covering for more mistakes and sometimes it’s too much for him to handle. This was the case for him at times last year, but history suggests that he will rebound and return to the reliable defender he was for most of his career. A down year for him is a good year for most in the league.

Brady Skjei

2021-22 was a revival for Skjei and it came out of nowhere. After seemingly topping out as a low-end 4/5 defenseman, he had a career year offensively and posted some of his best underlying stats since his rookie year. All awhile playing a tough shutdown role with Brett Pesce. The Hurricanes have done well to make the game easier for Skjei, giving him the greenlight to join the rush and allowing him to stand up at the line with Pesce or a forward backing him up if he gets beat. His size and skating were always going to be his calling cards and translating it to game situations was the challenge. This started to come around last year, he had a career season offensively and looked like a threat to score instead of someone who would spam low percentage shots from the boards. The high-risk nature of his game is still an issue, but it's something the Hurricanes are more content with now that they’re seeing the rewards. It gives the Hurricanes second pair a different look even though their primary job is shutting down top lines. Skjei’s aggressive nature and playing style was a big part of that with how often he would pinch to keep pucks in, push for offense or quickly re-enter the zone after a long shift. He had 39 points with zero power play time last year, so he could challenge for a spot on the second unit if Slavin continues to struggle there.

GOALTENDING

Frederik Andersen

When Carolina opted to jettison all their existing goaltenders in favor of a pair of over-thirty veterans with lengthy injury histories, it seemed hard to put big money down in favor of a successful Hurricanes year; after all, it would only take one ill-timed pair of injuries to both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta for the team to find themselves out in the wind with the playoffs on the line.

Luckily, the gamble worked out in their favor – and while neither vet had been willing to sign on a year-by-year basis, Andersen’s year was impressive enough to feel comfortable with him coming back for yet another season with the Metropolitan Division club. At 32-years old, Andersen .922 unadjusted save percentage and four shutouts were good for a whopping 35 team wins and the goaltender’s best statistical season since his rookie year. Very few goaltenders are able to do a complete one-eighty after struggling as hard as Andersen did during his final year in Toronto – but whatever Carolina did clearly worked. After a year of watching the Danish netminder struggle to accurately read shot rebounds and recover comfortably in order to face second shots, Andersen’s sharp instincts looked good as new during the 2021-22 season. He didn’t change much about his core style – he remained a goaltender who seems most comfortable pushing forward into shots and holding down the fort with clear sightlines instead of asking his defense to crowd his crease, with a preference for cutting down open space instead of waiting out shooters. But instead of fighting against the defensive system in front of him, which he seemed to be almost forced to do during his tenure in Toronto, he was able to play to his strengths with the Hurricanes and hit his stride. His only negative was the lack of consistency he posted; despite having some of the league’s best numbers, his quality start percentage sat just a hair above the average. But as long as he’s able to truly split the net with tandem partner Antti Raanta, which should prevent the more-consistent Finnish veteran from suffering more injuries, that shouldn’t be a big enough problem to hurt the Hurricanes in their push to hit the Stanley Cup Final.

Projected starts: 45-50

Antti Raanta

After nearly a decade in the NHL, it seems fair to say that Antti Raanta is a known entity in net. The 33-year-old former Blackhawks, Rangers, and Coyotes backstop remains one of the NHL’s most reliable goaltenders from a performance standpoint – so long as you don’t need him to hold down the fort entirely on his own for lengthy periods of time. Even when playing a true tandem with Frederik Andersen, Raanta suffered a slew of minor injuries that kept him out of games and left Andersen to man the pipes without him.

As Carolina seems to have figured out, though, Raanta still provides incredible value in a tandem situation. He didn’t put up quite the same level save percentage that Andersen did during his 28 regular season games with the Hurricanes, but that was more a byproduct of his consistency than it was a problem with his quality of performance. His quality start percentage matched Andersen’s nearly perfectly, and he only posted one start that classified as a Really Bad Start using Rob Vollman’s metric (which calculates the percentage of starts a goaltender actively inhibits his team’s chance of winning a game, recording a save percentage below 85%). In comparison, Andersen – who played in just under double the number of games Raanta did – posted five Really Bad Starts; while Andersen clearly posted higher highs than Raanta, he also posted lower lows. That’s a benefit of the structured, utilitarian style that Raanta plays; despite being one of the smallest goaltenders in the league, he keeps his skates within the blue paint and relies on patience to goad shooters into showing their hands before he drops to his knees. He lacks some of the high-end speed and lower body power that would likely push him into elite territory, particularly now that he’s so prone to lower-body bumps and bruises. But despite a game that doesn’t particularly challenge the Andrei Vasilevskiys and Igor Shesterkins of the league, his baseline remains incredibly strong – and best of all, he knows exactly what he is and what he’s capable of. Raanta’s spatial awareness sits among some of the best in the league, which gives him enough of an advantage to allow him to slow his game down a bit to ease up on his hips and groin. He may not be a sure bet as a reliable split-share netminder anymore, but he’s unlikely to hurt Carolina much, either.

Projected starts: 35-40

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Carey Price is diving back into the crease, Robert Thomas and Nico Hischier are making the leap, and college stars like Owen Power, Matty Beniers, Bobby Brink, and Kent Johnson are jumping into the NHL.

Scott Cullen — Sat, 16 Apr 2022 14:37:24 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Carey Price is diving back into the crease, Robert Thomas and Nico Hischier are making the leap, and college stars like Owen Power, Matty Beniers, Bobby Brink, and Kent Johnson are jumping into the NHL.

MONTREAL, QC - APRIL 15: Montreal Canadiens goalie Carey Price (31) first game of the season after a long injury participates in drills at warm-up before the New York Islanders versus the Montreal Canadiens game on April 15, 2022 at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

#1 It has been a trying season for the Montreal Canadiens, due in part to being without their starting goaltender all year. Carey Price returned to action Friday against the New York Islanders and allowed two goals on 19 shots in a 3-0 loss. In the past four regular seasons, Price has compiled a .909 save percentage in 198 games, which is a little below league average, but he has been excellent in his past five playoffs, earning a .925 save percentage in 62 postseason games since 2013-2014, which is tied with Braden Holtby for the best mark in the league among goaltenders that have appeared in at least 30 playoff games in that span.

#2 The 2020-2021 season should have been a breakout year for St. Louis Blues center Robert Thomas, who was heading into this third season after showing promise in his first two. Then he scored 12 points in 33 games. That lowered expectations for this season and now Thomas has had that breakout campaign. He has 23 points (6 G, 17 A) during an 11-game point streak and is up to 71 points (18 G, 53 A) in 64 games for the season.

#3 With Jack Hughes sidelined for the rest of the season, New Jersey Devils captain Nico Hischier steps into the role as the team’s No. 1 center and Hischier has rolled up 34 points (12 G, 22 A) in his past 26 games, recording at least one point in 21 of those 26 games. The reason for long-term hope in New Jersey is largely because of the potential of their top two centers.

#4 The top pick in the 2021 Draft by the Buffalo Sabres, defenseman Owen Power stepped into the NHL after finishing his sophomore season at Michigan, where he put up 32 points (3 G, 29 A) in 33 games for the Wolverines. Power made a seamless transition to the NHL, averaging 21:30 per game in his first two contests. For fantasy purposes, Power’s upside is going to be limited for the time being because Rasmus Dahlin is manning the point on Buffalo’s first power play unit.

#5 Power’s teammate at Michigan, and the second overall pick in last summer’s draft, Matty Beniers joined the Seattle Kraken and, like Power, Beniers looked ready for the challenge. He recorded an assist in his NHL debut and has landed in the No. 1 center spot for the Kraken, between Ryan Donato and Jordan Eberle. Beniers had 43 points (20 G, 23 A) in 37 games as a sophomore for the Wolverines.

#6 Not as highly touted as the kids coming out of Michigan, center Marc McLaughlin was signed by the Boston Bruins after he wrapped up his career at Boston College, where he was the captain for the past two seasons. McLaughlin had 31 points (21 G, 10 A) in 33 games as a senior for the Eagles and has stepped into the Bruins lineup and scored three goals in six games. While McLaughlin is establishing himself as a bona fide NHL player, he has averaged 10:34 of ice time per game thus far, which is indicative of his depth role on the Bruins.

#7 Arizona made a couple of deals to acquire college players before the trade deadline and Jack McBain and Nathan Smith have made their NHL debuts for the Coyotes. McBain, who was brought in from Minnesota, was a teammate of McLaughlin at Boston College and produced 33 points (19 G, 14 A) in 24 games for the Eagles. While McBain has no points and just one shot on goal in his first two NHL games, the puck is moving the right way (56.4%) with him on the ice and this late season audition gives him a chance to show he is NHL ready for next season. Smith was drafted by Winnipeg but was traded to Arizona after he had 50 points (19 G, 31 A) in 38 games for Minnesota State Mankato. Like McBain, Smith has no points and just two shots on goal in his first two games, but the puck is moving the right way (55.9 CF%).

#8 A small winger whose skating is not necessarily his strong suit, Bobby Brink is nevertheless an intriguing option for the Philadelphia Flyers. He has joined the team after winning the national championship for Denver University, piling up 57 points (14 G, 43 A) in 41 games as a junior for the Pioneers. Brink has one assist in his first two NHL games and is skating alongside Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee at evens while also getting a look on the top power play unit, so there is an opportunity for Brink to not only play but to contribute down the stretch.

#9 Another first-round pick out of Michigan Kent Johnson was the fifth overall pick in 2021 by Columbus. He tallied 37 points (8 G, 29 A) in 32 games as a sophomore for the Wolverines and slides into a role on the Blue Jackets’ third line. He is on the second power play unit but Johnson only saw 11 minutes of ice time in his NHL debut so he may not have enough of an opportunity to provide a fantasy impact this season. He will be one to watch for next season.

#10 The Minnesota Wild made splashy trade to bring in Marc-Andre Fleury at the trade deadline and it should be noted that Cam Talbot is hardly giving up the crease. In his past nine starts, Talbot is 7-0-2 with a .936 save percentage. That’s good enough to stay fantasy relevant down the stretch as the Wild do not need to lean heavily on Fleury, even if he is the one that is most likely to see the bulk of the action in the playoffs.

#11 For most of this season, Edmonton Oilers goaltender Mike Smith has struggled, and it was not so long ago that it looked like Mikko Koskinen would have to be the No. 1 guy for Edmonton down the stretch. Smith, however, has rounded into form and with the Oilers scoring a bunch, Smith has thrived, going 7-1-1 with a .932 save percentage in his past nine starts.

#12 One of the reasons that the Nashville Predators are in position to make the playoffs this season is the production that they have received from center Ryan Johansen. He already has 23 goals, which is his highest goal total in a season since 2014-2015, but it is not like Johansen has had a dramatic spike in shot rate. He is averaging 1.52 shots per game this season, compared to 1.40 per game last season, but he is scoring on a career high 21.3% of his shots and that has made a difference. The question is how sustainable that difference might be.

#13 On the other hand, Nashville has received a career season from Matt Duchene, who has set career highs with 38 goals and 75 points. This comes after a season in which Duchene managed a mere 13 points in 34 games. While Duchene is scoring on 19.0% of his shots, he has generated 2.86 shots on goal per game, the second highest rate of his career and his highest since 2013-2014.

#14 Even though the Ottawa Senators are well out of the playoffs, they have been competitive late in the season and part of that is due to the development of second-year center Tim Stutzle, who has drawn criticism for diving from Montreal Canadiens winger Brendan Gallagher. Ultimately, Stutzle is a 20-year-old playmaker who has 23 points (6 G, 17 A) in his past 19 games.

#15 The Calgary Flames have had a tremendous season and that team success has lifted the results of many individual players, including defenseman Noah Hanifin, who has a career high 41 points (8 G, 33 A) while generating a career high 2.29 shots on goal per game. Hanifin’s 12 power play points ranks second among Flames defensemen behind Rasmus Anderson, who has 17.

#16 As the Vancouver Canucks make a desperate push for a playoff spot, they are doing so without injured right winger Brock Boeser and that has created more playing time for rookie winger Vasily Podkolzin, who has six points (3 G, 3 A) while averaging 16:19 of ice time per game in his past four games. Prior to that, Podkolzin had been averaging 12:16 of ice time per game, so he is stepping into a big role at a critical point in the Canucks’ season.

#17 New Jersey Devils left winger Yegor Sharangovich did not score a goal in his first 13 games of the season, but he is enjoying a strong finish to his second NHL season, contributing 26 points (14 G, 12 A) in his past 28 games. He is riding shotgun on left wing with Hischier on the Devils top line, with AHL call-up Fabian Zetterlund on the right side.

#18 A 36-year-old forward on a team with fading, nearly extinct, playoff hopes, Paul Stastny has been a quality contributor for the Winnipeg Jets. He has nine points (3 G, 6 A) in his past nine games, giving him 41 points (20 G, 21 A) in 64 games. Stastny’s 16 even-strength goals is his most in a season since 2013-2014.

#19 Bowen Byram has returned to the Colorado Avalanche lineup following a concussion and the second-year defenseman has three assists in five games since rejoining the Avs. He has only appeared in 23 games, but Byram has averaged 1.52 points per 60 minutes of 5v5 play, which ranks seventh among defensemen (just behind the Maple Leafs’ Morgan Rielly) that have played at least 200 5v5 minutes this season. Byram’s teammates Cale Makar and Devon Toews rank second and fifth, respectively.

#20 Since the trade deadline, these are the players with the highest rate of individual expected goals (minimum 100 5v5 minutes): Florida’s Mason Marchment, Tampa Bay’s Ross Colton, Boston’s Brad Marchand, Calgary’s Blake Coleman, Dallas’ Alexander Radulov, Winnipeg’s Nikolaj Ehlers, Pittsburgh’s Evan Rodrigues, Toronto’s Auston Matthews, Vegas’ Nicolas Roy, and Florida’s Carter Verhaeghe.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

NORTH DIVISION PLAYOFF PREVIEW: Montreal Canadiens vs. Winnipeg Jets – Hardworking Underdogs Meet

Jeff Veillette — Wed, 02 Jun 2021 20:55:11 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - APRIL 08: Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck (37) tracks the play during the Winnipeg Jets versus the Montreal Canadiens game on April 8, 2021, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

Well, this was unexpected! Not one, but both of the North Division’s heavy underdogs pulled out upset wins in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

On the west end of the country, the Winnipeg Jets stunned the hockey world by beating the Edmonton Oilers in a clean sweep, slowing down the Connor McDavid / Leon Draisaitl duo just enough and essentially eliminating everyone else from the equation. Over on the East end, what looked like an easy series for the Toronto Maple Leafs turned into arguably the biggest collapse of the team’s current era, as Montreal rallied to win Games 5, 6, 7 and send the regular season division champions home without a round won for the sixteenth consecutive season. Incredibly, between the two teams, only one win (Winnipeg in Game 1) came by more than one non-empty net goal.

This now leaves two hard-working underdogs to take each other on. How do they stack up?

The strongest case in Montreal’s favour appears to be, much to the joy of those who love seeing veterans go back in time, the dominant performance of Carey Price. While he technically had a lower save percentage than Jack Campbell in the Toronto series, it was a case of excellent on excellent with Price posting a 0.932 save percentage over the course of the round, including 103 saves on 109 shots (0.945) in the closing three games.

That re-kindling of his prime magic is very reminiscent of what he accomplished in the bubble against the Pittsburgh Penguins, though a look at how his final three games in last year’s second round (1-2, 0.882 SV%) might have one a bit concerned about how long he can sustain a run of excellence. Price had just one other run of dominance like this in the regular season in Early March, it only lasted six games, and it was both preceded and followed by equally long slumps of well under 0.900 hockey. Maybe the thrill of the postseason holds, though.

On Winnipeg’s end, goaltending also appears to be a strength, and maybe an even more sustainable coming from Connor Hellebuyck. The 28-year-old reigning Vezina Trophy winner had a slightly down year in terms of save percentage but finished 10^th in the NHL in goals saved above average and second in goals saved above expected according to Evolving Hockey’s model. In Edmonton, he was even more spectacular than Price was in Toronto, stopping 151 of 159 shots against for a gaudy 0.950 save percentage, including a shutout and a perfect four for four in terms of quality starts. He averaged over a goal saved above league average per game, and over one and a half goals saved above expected. Price might have more experience in bigger games, but Hellebuyck has been the better goalie of the two over the past several years, this year, and in these playoffs, and has the consistency, age gap, and recent rest gap in his favour.

Rest is going to be a big factor in this series as well, though many come at this from duelling schools of thought. Winnipeg certainly got a lot of time to recharge their batteries and recover from their injuries, particularly the ones belonging to the recently returned Nikolaj Ehlers and team captain Blake Wheeler, and that should do them some good. But they’ve also been off for nine days now – their biggest break by far since the start of the season – and you wonder how much that takes away the momentum of putting together a sweep for the ages. Montreal will be riding in less than 48 hours rest, which is bad for the bones and tired muscles, but great for adrenaline.

Given the intensely physical, “playoff style” series I expect we’re about to see, I’m inclined to believe that this works out more in the rested team’s favour. Montreal was the league leader in hits during the regular season and wasted no time in continuing to throw the body and lead with their forecheck in the Toronto series, and while it was a part of what helped them push through, it’s hard to consistently deliver that deep into the playoffs when you’re a veteran team that’s done it all year, with little time for a break. Winnipeg is in the upper half of physicality-driven metrics as well, and plays a “heavy” game as well, something which frustrated many in Edmonton as the whistles went away in their series. While the Habs have a little more to give, the rest will mean that Winnipeg has more of an ability to give it, and I think that matters a fair bit.

As far as breakout skaters go, this is another area where I think the Jets get the greater benefit of the doubt, with their core forward group of Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor, and Nikolaj Ehlers simply having more firepower than their opponents. To Montreal’s credit, while their initial strategy against the Maple Leafs involved not dressing Jesperi Kotkaniemi or Cole Caufield, and not giving much trust to Nick Suzuki, the course quickly turned as the kids began to make the most out of their touches, leading to goals that ended up defining the series, including Suzuki’s winner in Game 5 and Kotkaniemi’s in Game 6. Montreal also has a fantastic shutdown weapon available to them in Phil Danault. While Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner seemed to have a lot of struggles that were self-inflicted, Danault and a rotating cast of linemates slowed down that top pair enough to limit them to just one five-on-five goal with him on the ice. Can he, Jake Evans, and Brendan Gallagher do the same against the Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler line? That, at least, will be the hope.

Perhaps that opens up an opportunity for the second line of Ehlers, Paul Stastny, and Pierre-Luc Dubois to step in and produce – something that worked (but not enough) for William Nylander’s line in the Toronto series. Or maybe it means that Winnipeg group isn’t the one tasked with holding down the opponent’s superstars this time around, and they’ll have the ability to dictate the matchup. The blue line will be another question – will Josh Morrissey continue to have a surprising resurgence, and on the other side, will Jeff Petry rebound to what we saw of him in the regular season?

There are a lot of questions to be asked in this series, a matchup in which none of us really expected to be lining up. But that’s a big part of the fun here – they’re both teams that slid in by dragging higher-skilled groups down to their level, and now need to find a way to either break through or pull down each other. They both got amazing goaltending to ensure it worked, but with each game, maintaining a well-above-average pace becomes more difficult for both netminders. They both have top lines with a strong identity that could cancel each other out, and a lot of wild cards down the lineup. Honestly, it’s tough to decide a winner here, but given Winnipeg’s 6-3 edge in the season series, their rest, and (sigh) their more proven higher-end forwards, I’m going to give them the edge in six games. But after what we saw in these past two weeks, it’s hard to say for sure. That’s what makes playoff hockey great, and I’m very excited for this series.

MCKEEN’S 2021 NHL YEARBOOK: Under the Radar Fantasy All-Stars

Scott Cullen — Sun, 03 Jan 2021 18:09:45 +0000

FANTASY ALL-STARS

There are many reasons why a player might not be valued in the fantasy hockey marketplace. Often, that discrepancy between market value and expectations for a new season can be tied to poor percentages the year before.

It’s important to understand that shooting percentage and on-ice shooting percentage can fluctuate in small samples and from one year to the next there can be dramatic shifts and the changes in those percentages ultimately change goal and point production, too.

But there are other reasons why a player might be in position to exceed expectations in a new season. Maybe the player is coming back from injury or has moved to a new team or is looking at a bigger role on the power play; all of these factors could put a player in a better position to produce.

Last year’s Fantasy All-Stars article included the likes of Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller, William Nylander, Jaden Schwartz, and Kevin Fiala among those who were much more valuable by the end of the season than they might have been expected to be at the beginning. It also included Alex Galchenyuk, so there are no guarantees here but there are some tried and frequently true methods for seeking out players who can exceed expectations and thereby provide fantasy value that can make a difference in your league.

Opportunity matters, fluctuations in percentages matter, and when it comes to value in fantasy drafts, perception matters.

While someone like Taylor Hall should be better this season than he was last season, there’s not necessarily a lot of value to be gained because there’s naturally quite a bit of hype surrounding his move to Buffalo and the possibility of playing with Jack Eichel.

Hall is a good bet to have a bounce-back season and he could very well be one of the top left wingers by season’s end but that’s going to be a very popular take so there isn’t necessarily a lot of excess value to be gained unless he has a truly exceptional campaign.

Here are my Fantasy All-Stars for the 2020-2021 NHL season, players that may be able to provide good value relative to their preseason expectations.

FORWARDS

NEWARK, NJ - FEBRUARY 20: New Jersey Devils left wing Nikita Gusev (97) skates during the National Hockey League game between the New Jersey Devils and the San Jose Sharks on February 20, 2020 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Jeff Skinner, LW, Buffalo

After burying 40 goals in 2018-2019, Skinner crashed to just 14 goals and 23 points in 59 games in 2019-2020. However, he remains an elite shot generator with more than three shots on goal per game in every season since his second year in the league and that can turn around results in a hurry once the percentages pendulum swings. The Sabres have added talent to their top six up front, bringing in Hall and Eric Staal, so Skinner should benefit from having more skill around him in the lineup.

Nikita Gusev, LW, New Jersey

It took some time for Gusev to transition from the KHL to the NHL last season and he had 14 points in his first 29 games. But from mid-December on, shortly after the Devils made a coaching change, Gusev saw his ice time increase and he produced 30 points in 37 games. He should be poised to play a prominent role for the Devils right from the start of this season.

Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal

The playmaking pivot showed well in his rookie season, putting up 41 points in 71 games, but his work in the postseason should elevate expectations. With their season on the line, the Habs leaned even more on Suzuki and he had seven points and 27 shots on goal while playing more than 19 minutes per game in 10 playoff games. If Suzuki gets that kind of ice time from the start of this season, he should see a spike in production.

Robert Thomas, RW, St. Louis

The third year Blues winger has been on an upward trajectory and he produced 26 points in 33 games after Christmas last season. With Vladimir Tarasenko expected to miss much of this season, the opportunity is there for Thomas to take on an even bigger offensive role.

Denis Gurianov, RW, Dallas

While the 23-year-old winger was the only 20-goal scorer on the Stars last season, he also managed just nine assists and ranked 11^th among Dallas forwards in average time on ice. Even if Gurianov doesn’t score on more than 15% of his shots again he has the potential for increased production just based on the possibility of receiving more ice time because he’s too good to be limited to 13 minutes per game.

Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey

It’s hard to fly under the radar as a first overall pick but Hughes’ value is surely depressed after a rookie season in which he slumped at the end with one assist in his last 14 games, finishing with 21 points in 61 games. But there are also reasons to be optimistic about Hughes’ chances heading into his sophomore campaign. The first is that his percentages have to get better. Hughes had a shooting percentage of 5.7% and an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.1%; both very low. The second is that Hughes is outstanding at transporting the puck, with control, from the defensive zone into the offensive zone. If he can still do that and the percentages start to fall his way, Hughes’ production could take off.

Kevin Labanc, RW, San Jose

Even after getting an extra couple of minutes of ice time per game last season, Labanc saw his point total fall from 56 points in 82 games in 2018-2019 to just 33 points in 70 games last season. Despite creating a lot of opportunities during 5-on-5 play last season, Labanc’s percentages dropped significantly from the previous season. He should have an important enough role in San Jose to have it pay off if the percentages flip again.

Cam Atkinson, RW, Columbus

The veteran winger went from a career-high 41 goals and 69 points in 2018-2019 to 12 goals and 26 points in 44 games last season. He still generated more than three shots on goal per game for the third straight season and remains a part of Columbus’ first power play unit. He also had career low shooting and on-ice shooting percentages so a healthy Atkinson will be set for a bounce-back performance this season.

Kirby Dach, C, Chicago

The third overall pick in 2019, Dach was fine as a rookie, contributing 23 points in 64 games but his play in the bubble should increase anticipation for what he might accomplish in his second season. Not only did Dach produce six points in nine playoff games but he averaged 19:24 of ice time per game, a boost of more than five minutes per game over the regular season. Part of that boost was finding a role on Chicago’s top power play unit so Dach could be ready to provide significant secondary offense. (Editors Note: Kirby Dach suffered an injury in the World Junior Championship and is likely t miss much, if not all, of the season)

Vincent Trocheck, C, Carolina

Since suffering a broken ankle in November of 2018, Trocheck has produced 58 points in 99 games. That after producing 88 points in the 99 games that he had played before suffering that injury. This season may provide a better chance for Trocheck to recapture his form, especially with a Hurricanes team that has tended to dominate shot counts in recent seasons.

Ryan Donato, LW, San Jose

Although he has not had a consistent role since arriving in the league, Donato has been a high-end shot generator and he did score a career-high 14 goals while playing 10:38 per game for the Wild last season. The move to San Jose brings a real opportunity for Donato to get more ice time and, with quality linemates, Donato could surprise.

Paul Stastny, C, Winnipeg

Stastny will be 35 years old by the time next season starts, which isn’t the ideal time to go picking someone for a bounce-back season. The value here is in expecting his production to recover from a season in which he finished with 38 points, his lowest in a season in which he played at least 50 games. His on-ice shooting percentage of 6.9% last season was the second lowest of his career so it’s not that difficult to imagine Stastny returning to Winnipeg, where he had great production in a small sample late in the 2017-2018 season, and finding finishers who can help boost his point production.

DEFENSE

TORONTO, ON - NOVEMBER 05: Los Angeles Kings Defenceman Sean Walker (26) skates with the puck during the NHL regular season game between the Los Angeles Kings and the Toronto Maple Leafs on November 5, 2019, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

P.K. Subban, New Jersey

It’s not like Subban could ever be forgotten but he did have a career-low 18 points in 68 games last season. However, the main issue is that he struggled on the power play and the Devils gave Sami Vatanen and Damon Severson significant time on the point with the man advantage. If Subban can get back to producing on the power play he could once again be a difference maker.

Tyson Barrie, Edmonton

The move to Toronto did not start out well for Barrie, who managed seven points in 23 games before the Maple Leafs fired head coach Mike Babcock. A new coach offered Barrie more freedom and he produced a much more typical 32 points in 47 games the rest of the way. He moves to Edmonton, where the Oilers need a power play quarterback because of Oscar Klefbom’s injury. Playing a critical role on the league’s best power play is a great place for Barrie to re-establish his value.

Erik Gustafsson, Philadelphia

A quality puck-moving defenseman who has produced 27 power play points in the past two seasons, Gustafsson did see his total points drop from 60 points in 2018-2019 to 29 last season, which is part of the reason that he may be a fantasy bargain. Gustafsson should be looking at a big role on a Philadelphia blueline that can use him in a top four role after Matt Niskanen retired.

Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston

The departure of Torey Krug to St. Louis leaves a spot open on Boston’s top power play unit and McAvoy, the Bruins’ best defenseman, could be the beneficiary. In his first three NHL seasons, McAvoy has contributed 1.23 points/60 during 5-on-5 play, which ranks 12th among defensemen (between Gustafsson and Barrie) so he has the offensive chops to handle the job.

Rasmus Andersson, Calgary

The Flames have overhauled their blueline and Andersson appears set to take on an even bigger role than the one he played last season when he logged nearly 20 minutes per game. He’s also probably due for an uptick in on-ice shooting percentage from last season’s 6.2% giving him a chance to make a more notable offensive contribution.

Sean Walker, Los Angeles

Drew Doughty is ahead of Walker on the Kings first power play unit, which does put a limit on the upside of the third-year defender, but Walker is capable of generating shots and contributed 24 points in 70 games despite an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.9% last season.

GOALIES

EDMONTON, AB - DECEMBER 14: Edmonton Oilers Goalie Mikko Koskinen (19) makes a blocker save in the second period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Toronto Maple Leads on December 14, 2019 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB.(Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

Mikko Koskinen, Edmonton

The Oilers are playing to win now and if they are intent on being competitive, Koskinen is the goaltender that gives them the best chance. He wasn’t very effective in four playoff appearances last year but he was above average in 38 regular season games, which should give him the edge on Mike Smith for the starter’s job and if Koskinen is starting for an Oilers team that should be a playoff team, he can be a rather useful fantasy netminder. That he hasn’t yet established a great reputation, as a 32-year-old who has played just 97 career NHL games, is an advantage in this case as Koskinen should be relatively inexpensive on draft day.

Frederik Andersen, Toronto

From 2016-2017 through 2018-2019, the Maple Leafs netminder won 107 games while posting a .918 save percentage, rating well above average. Last season wasn’t quite at that level. Andersen still won 29 of 52 starts but his .909 save percentage was a little below average and it’s that dip in save percentage, coupled with Andersen getting outdueled by Columbus’ goaltenders in the play-in series, that should make Andersen a little more cost friendly for what he can provide. He still has a contending team in front of him and if he bounces back to previous form, Andersen will have a chance to provide a great return on investment.

Against All Odds – Vegas Golden Knights 2018-19 Season Preview

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 14 Sep 2018 14:36:44 +0000

REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – The Vegas Golden Knights inaugural season played out as if it was written and produced by Disney. While it is true that Vegas wasn’t your typical expansion team given the favorable expansion draft rules the NHL created for them, they still exceeded all expectations in their first season of existence.

Vegas excelled right from the start of the season. The Golden Knights suffered an incredibly unlikely string of goaltending injuries that culminated in Dylan Ferguson, who spent most of the season in the WHL, even getting a cameo between the pipes, but not even misfortune on that scale could do more than briefly slow them. Vegas posted a 51-24-7 record and then overwhelmed the Los Angeles Kings, San Jose Sharks, and Winnipeg Jets to claim the Western Conference title. Only the Washington Capitals in the Stanley Cup Final were finally able to break apart the Golden Knights’ attack and solve Marc-Andre Fleury to deny Vegas a championship in its very first season.

NO GOLDEN CONTRACTS – Vegas got to the Stanley Cup Final on the backs of players that were enjoying breakout or career years and several of them were also due contract extensions. That could have been a recipe for big paydays, but things considered, the Golden Knights have avoided handed out massive contracts.

William Karlsson

Jonathan Marchessault got the biggest payday with a six-year, $30 million extension that kicks in this season after he jumped from 30 goals and 51 points in 2016-17 to 27 goals and 75 points in 77 contests last season. The Golden Knights’ other offensive leader, William Karlsson, was handed a one-year, $5.25 million bridge contract as an RFA. That puts the onus on Karlsson to prove that he can at least come close to repeating his 43-goal, 78-point performance from 2017-18.

David Perron also set a career-high with 66 points while James Neal scored scored 25 goals, but Vegas allowed them to walk as unrestricted free agents. In their place though, Vegas signed UFA Paul Stastny to a three-year, $19.5 million deal.

On defense, Colin Miller was a standout in 2017-18 with 10 goals and 41 points in 82 games, up from 13 points in 2016-17. Vegas was still able to ink the RFA to a four-year, $15.5 million contract. That left Fleury with the biggest contract in terms of annual salary after the Golden Knights gave him a three-year, $21 million contract that begins in 2019-20. Of course, out of all the Golden Knights’ leaders last season, Fleury was the one with the best resume coming into the 2017-18 campaign.

IS REGRESSION INEVITABLE? – It’s good that the Golden Knights didn’t go crazy when it came to re-signing the 2017-18 standouts because there is reason to believe that last season’s magic won’t be repeated.

Karlsson is the easiest player to pick on when arguing that key Golden Knights stars are due to regress. He had a 23.4% shooting percentage, which was the highest of the salary cap era (min. 150 SOG) and just screams unsustainable, especially from someone that had a 7.7% career shooting percentage prior to 2017-18. He also had a very high 5v5 expected goals differential and on-ice expected goals differential, which again are warning signs that he could regress. He’s far from the only person on Vegas with 5v5 expected goals differential and/or on-ice expected goals differentials that are flashing red lights. Marchessault, Brayden McNabb, Reilly Smith, Nate Schmidt, and Erik Haula are also among those on that list.

On top of that, Vegas’ situation has been complicated by the announcement that Schmidt will serve a 20-game suspension for violating the NHL/NHLPA's Performance Enhancing Substances Program. While Schmidt was already on the list of players that are in danger of regressing offensively this season, he was counted on to eat 22:14 minutes per game in 2017-18 and missing him is still a big loss for Vegas.

OUTLOOK – Vegas managed to defy expectations last season, but the Golden Knights still have a lot to prove. They look like a team perfectly capable of making the playoffs, but not one that should be nearly as dominate as they were in 2017-18. The one X-Factor in all this is Erik Karlsson as Vegas has frequently popped up in trade rumors regarding him since the 2018 trade deadline. If the Golden Knights do manage to get him without meaningfully dipping into their NHL roster, then that could elevate them from being contenders for a playoff spot to serious Cup candidates again.

Kats Krunch – Breaking Systems: Blues from the Outside

Gus Katsaros — Mon, 17 Oct 2016 15:42:33 +0000

I’m going to try something a little different this season, hopefully it becomes a regular feature, but I’m not sure about frequency.

I love the expansion of system work being performed in the hockey universe and feel that this is an important aspect of team/player evaluation.

There’s a range of twitter follows that do a great job here:

Prashanth Iyer (Detroit)
Mike Darnay & Jesse Marshall (Penguins)
Jack Han (#1minutetactics)
Dave Shapiro (Rangers)
Charlie O’Connor (Philadelphia)

And plenty of others that I have missed.

I’d like to take this into a different direction. Everyone’s read Hockey Plays and Strategies and finding use in spotting trends. I’d like this space to be more about ‘breaking’ the system and offering ideas on how to do that with a certain play, or team scenario, or even make up a play that may fit a particular situation.

The main theme is breaking the system, which every video coach and data analyst should eventually be doing under a team umbrella.

First up, the St. Louis Blues offensive zone entry.

**************

Sometime over the second half of 2015-16, glossing over some data from the Passing Project in the search of identifying rush opportunities, the Blues popped up. Before season’s end, with some video review, the outside/inside approach to the Blues zone entries is fairly evident.

They attack from the outside, stretching the defense to open a shooting lane, exploiting open space. This wide angle approach is regular, looking for outside lanes to penetrate the zone, with a support trailer following up in the same lane – allowing for a retreat to a ‘safe’ transition option should the play fizzle before it’s created.

We are going to mash some data and video to illustrate this strategy, with the question being, can the passing project provide a window into offensive zone strategy.

Project founder, Ryan Stimson attempted to do just that with this Tacalytics piece highlighting offensive strategy.

Ryan Stimson and his passing crew amass data for three passes prior to a shooting attempt (on goal, missed or blocked – denoted here as a ‘non-shot’ on goal). Adding dimension is shot event origin s(coring chance home plate area or outside, as well as spatially from all three zones, including direction (left, right or from the center). I would highly recommend getting familiar with this project, because I’ll be referring to it often. If you want to help track games, get in touch with Ryan.

For my purposes here, we are looking to isolate passes that Stimson has labelled ‘shot assists’ – the last pass before a shot event:

Originated from the offensive zone on either the right or left side (not off a faceoff)
Pass was made into the scoring chance area or outside
A shot event (shot, goal or just an attempt) from the home plate scoring area

The Blues are among NHL leaders in plays originating from the outside and culminating in a shot from the scoring chance area.

The Blues had 20 games recorded. The average number of games tracked is 27 when removing two almost complete Chicago and New Jersey that slightly skew results (raises average to 30)

League wide norms at 5v5, area in the table below, with cumulative number of passes fired from the scoring chance area (SC), or non-scoring chance area. The percentage is a differential indicating the percentage of shots from the scoring area (SC divided by (SC+NSC).

NHL	SC	NSC	tot	%age of SC shots
Shot Attempts	4552	9757	14309	31.8
SOG	2448	3800	6248	39.2
Non-SOG	2104	5957	8061	26.1

Isolating St. Louis, produced the results below, with their ranking in each category.

All	Rk	SC	NSC	tot	%age
Shot Attempts	1st	136	199	335	41
SOG	3rd	73	88	161	45
Non-SOG	2nd	63	111	174	36

We are primarily interested with the Blues zone entry, but when they do get into the zone without a play into the middle, extended zone time is either below the goal line, or up the wall, to the outside.

Noting that positional fluidity manifests in the attack, when filtering only for forwards we see an NHL leading pattern.

Fwds Only	Rk	%age	Lg Avg	St Dev
Shot Attempts	1st	43.32	32.19	3.66
SOG	2nd	47.11	39.06	4.45
Non-SOG	1st	39.68	26.39	4.79

Lets go to video from 2016-17 – as coaching staff has said they’ve implemented changes to their systems.

In this first video, the key piece is the trailer. Vladimir Tarasenko streaks in off the left wing, with David Perron backing him up in the outside lane. There’s no inside drive or anything preventing the play from moving closer to the middle of the ice until well after the entry.

The trailer is key in this scenario, and it will be the central theme of their zone entry and outside approach.

Even with a clear cut two on one forming, Robby Fabri seems somewhat hesitant to drive to the inside and only veers after the pass comes to him, which by that time is offside.

I’m speculating somewhat here because I don’t know what’s happening in his head, but he doesn’t cross the faceoff dots until he is in the offensive zone and the play’s already been whistled dead at the blueline.

Here is a Blues quick break through the neutral zone, in the middle of the ice, yet Paul Stastny forces a pass through a stick and a nearby defender over to the wing.

The Blues incorporated additional risk (without creating any additional benefit – in fact detracting from potential benefit) in the forced pass almost at dead center ice just to get the puck to the streaking Robby Fabbri on the wing.

Alex Steen did his job pushing back the defense pairing into their own zone, then riding the blueline for the stealth weak side entry.

So, the play is forced up the wing and the weak side winger approaches from an outside angle offering little offensive support other than as a trailer.

What’s missing here?

Zero net drive.

There’s no middle lane drive, it’s all on the outside converging to the crease. The winger makes the play without any support, aside from the high player too high in the zone, or on the weak side.

Instead of making a bee-line to the net, Stastny takes up the familiar support position in the outside lane.

There might benefit into the structure to ensure defensive numbers in case the play breaks down which is the ‘safe’ play, but it’s eating at the potential benefit.

During the playoffs, the most frustrating aspect of the Blues forward game was using the outside lane drive and then setting up a cycle or fighting for pucks in the perimeter, losing a battle and repeating the sequence with a dump in. They met their match against San Jose that took away their high posts in the neutral zone (outside of the zone and outside the dots) and didn’t allow any excessive zone time by using the middle of the ice (inside the zone and inside the dots) that wasn’t as heavily trafficked.

Chicago let them operate on the outside and the Blues did an excellent job at scooping up loose pucks. Dallas, with their mid-ice collapse and ‘protect the house’ mentality in the defensive zone almost fell right into the Blues game plan and fell apart when they finally pressured enough to put the series away.

An ideal play here for the zone entry could have been across to the weak side instead of the forced pass to the left wing with Fabbri and Stastny hitting the middle of the ice for net drive, also forcing both defenders to shift their feet.

Ken Hitchcock architected this method to creating offense. Players cut through the outside to the goal if they can get a step around the defender, or they pull the defenseman over towards the outside creating a lane for the support trailer to either shoot on goal, or take it right to the crease.

The latter option is illustrated below.

*****

Even when a defenseman replaces a forward and joins the rush, the mentality is the same.

Mobile blueliner, Alex Pietrangelo, carries the puck up the middle and passes off to the wing instead of attacking the blueline in the middle. Instead of preserving a dangerous inside drive, he takes the lane support position with a net drive coming from the outside via the weak side winger.

Breaking the System

As an opponent recognizing the discernible pattern, I would advise coaching staff to let the outside puck carrier skate to the outside and only engage fully if:

puck carrier has passed the facoff dots and hasn’t cut into the net
backside pressure eliminates the support lane trailer
defense partner has clear position in the crease

Approaching zone entries:

instead of cheating into the middle, recognize the pattern and post a little wider along the blueline in anticipation of the outside entry
if possible with numbers, lineup a forward in between the defense pairing, allowing blueline engage to be supported by a forward
backside pressure attacks the puck battle in support position to ensure no loose pucks squirt into open areas

Follow Gus Katsaros on Twitter (@Katshockey)

NHL Playoff Preview: St. Louis Blues (2) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (3)

Daniel Friedman and Robert Howard — Fri, 15 Apr 2016 16:19:45 +0000

Summary: Every year, the Blues are a tempting pick to go on a Cup run and every year, they are a letdown. A fact they are very aware of themselves.

Still, that's not the reason for picking against them this time. This has to do with the fact that Chicago is simply the better hockey team.

The two are pretty even in most categories, but the Hawks have more firepower on offense, which is what gives them a very slight edge here. It will be a shame as a very good team with champion potential will be eliminated.

PREDICTION: Blackhawks in 7

First Game Update: St. Louis takes a 1-0 lead on a re-directed overtime goal by David Backes, and a 35-save performance by Brian Elliott. The Hawks outshot the Blues 35 to 18, including seven to two in overtime. St. Louis out hit the Hawks 41 to 24, as they have all season in head to head matchups (167 to 102), setting the tone for a grueling series of two very good teams.

Key Injuries: Duncan Keith (game 1 – suspension – back for game 2),

Critical Factors: St. Louis is healthy going into the playoffs, something that has been a problem in the past. Chicago is not the same team as a year ago, as the CF% decline (see Notes below) attests, after another remodel due to salary cap issues. The loss of experience in Johnny Oduya and Patrick Sharp were addressed with aggressive deadline acquisitions Andrew Ladd, Dale Weise and Thomas Fleishmann. There was not a noticeable improvement in possession after the deadline, however. Oduya’s loss has not been addressed on the back end. They have replaced it with a high octane scoring line with the emergence of Artemi Panarin, helping Patrick Kane to win the scoring title. Brian Elliott has been excellent this season finishing second behind Ben Bishop with a 2.07 GAA, and leading the league in save percentage 0.934 SV% (more than 20 games) – matching his regular season, and putting past playoff demons behind him, could make the difference in a tight series. Corey Crawford was enjoying an excellent season as well, before getting hurt and missing a month, with a 0.924 SV%, and 2.36 GAA setting up a potential goaltenders duel if he is 100%.

Season Matchup: STL 3-2-0 Possession gave a slight edge to STL (222 CF (53%) vs. 191 CF (47%)) in the five head-to-head games this season (war-on-ice.com).

Potential Breakout Players: Colton Pareyko will be interesting to watch in his first playoff, he posted 33 points in his rookie season, even if he has been quiet as of late. His size will be welcome as the Western Conference can be a physical grind. He posted an exceptional 4.09 CF%Rel. Kevin Shattenkirk thrives on the power play and Chicago is vulnerable if they take too many penalties. Andrew Ladd returns to his previous team, and fills a big hole on the top LW, and will come up big alongside Jonathan Toews when it counts. Paul Stastny has played much better in his second season and could be unheralded surprise on the second line, posting 0.88 points per game since the All Star break (30-5-21-26).

Key Stats:

CF% 5v5 (war-on-ice.com): STL 51.9% (6^th) CHI 50.7% (15^th)

PDO (war-on-ice.com): STL 100.3 (12^th) CHI 99.5 (22^nd)

Power Play (NHL.com): STL 21.5% (6^th) CHI 22.6% (2^nd)

Penalty Kill (NHL.com): STL 85.1% (3^rd) CHI 80.3% (22^nd)

Goals For per-game (NHL.com): STL 2.67 (15^th) CHI 2.85 (6^th)

Goals Against per-game (NHL.com): STL 2.40 (4th), CHI 2.52 (1oth)

Notes: Chicago has not had much ‘puck luck’ compared to St. Louis due to a 6.7 OSh% - 4^th worst in the league. The Hawks dropping to 15^th in 5v5 CF% after finishing 3^rd last season, 2^nd in 13-14, and 1^st in 12-13, representing a significant development. They and LA have largely owned the top two possession spots for the prior three season, with demonstrable results. The 2^nd ranked power play vs. the 3^rd ranked penalty kill promises to be an interesting match up. Chicago at 22^nd on the penalty kill is over-matched by the 6^th best power play.

Around the Boards: Fantasy Notes

Robert Howard — Tue, 27 Oct 2015 15:59:46 +0000

Paraphrasing Brian Burke, he once famously declared otherwise knowledgeable, experienced GM’s lose their minds at the trade deadline and free agency on July 1^st. Making their greatest mistakes at the trade deadline, followed closely by free agency. In fantasy hockey, the trade deadline is also fraught with ill-advised deals, and a heightened level of desperation in search of a championship, but there is an argument to be made that the first ten games of the fantasy hockey season produce some interesting trade opportunities. Surprising results from a small sample of games can lead to some itchy GM fingers in the ‘irrational exuberance” of the excitement of another season.

However, if you keep a relatively cool head it is a good time to make some trades based on early results. One of the time-tested measures for goal scorers in particular, is the number of shots they are producing, and their corresponding shooting percentage. A look at the top shot producers in the league to date uncovers some established scorers who should see the law of averages begin to work in their favour. There are some excellent sites doing some advanced work on shooting and scoring chances, but we will stick to a simpler approach for this article. Here are some suggestions to throw a buy-low offer at.

Taylor Hall on Edmonton leads the league with 39 shots, with a 7.7% shooting percentage. Not a big dip from the 8.9% he connected on last year, but down from his career shooting percentage of 11.0%.

Daniel Sedin is tied for second in the league with Tarasenko and Pacioretty with 36 shots and a meagre 5.6% shooting percentage. Well off his career average of 11.6%, but be aware he has not shot at that level since 2011-12. In the previous three seasons he has posted an 8.2% shooting percentage, as he has been producing around a twenty-goals pace. A long way from his heyday, and should temper any hope of a significant uplift.

Brent Burns leads all defenseman in shots with 35, but has only one goal, with a 2.9% shooting percentage. His past results get a little muddied by his time as a forward of the past few years, but has shot at 8.0% over the previous two seasons. Given the scoring opportunities created by his bomb from the point, it is very encouraging that he is firing away 4.4 shots a game versus 3.0 last season.

Tied for ninth with 32 shots each are Nazem Kadri, Rich Nash and Radim Vrbata with a 3.1% shooting percentage and a single goal to date. All of them are due to rebound.

Rich Nash owns a 12.4% career shooting percentage and potted 42 last season with a 13.8% success rate.

Kadri, has almost double his shot count from last season with 4.5 a game versus 2.4 last year (with a 10.2% shooting percentage).

Vrbata recently was re-united with the Sedins, and looks to be staying there. He has been firing well below his career average (9.4%), but the opportunities have been there and he is due.

Ryan Johansen (one goal in 24 games) and Nick Foligno (one goal in 30 shots) are both due. Johansen’s injury clouds things, but they are good buy-low targets. Look for a turnaround from a dismal start, with a kickstart form new coach Tortorella. Foligno may not hit the highs he did last year, but his stats will improve.

Other honourable mentions include Jakub Voracek with no goals on 28 shots. Claude Giroux sits with one assist to date, so they are likely to ignite together. Two games this week against an injured Buffalo team and one against New Jersey (playing well and not an easy out) could be the tonic.

In addition to some unexpected starts there was a slew of injury news to start the week in the NHL. Here are some key fantasy performers that will shake up line combinations and your line-up decisions.

The St. Louis Blues are early front-runners for the ‘Triage Award’ for injuries this season, having lost Patrik Berglund, Paul Stastny, Kevin Shattenkirk, Jaden Schwartz, and Robby Fabbri for periods. Schwartz being the lasts blow that will remove him from the line-up for three months. Opening opportunities for Ty Rattie and Dmitrij Jaskin to fill some much needed offensive holes. The 22-year old Rattie is off to a hot start with the Chicago Wolves with four goals and seven points in three games, in his third season with the Wolves. Here is an excerpt from his McKeen’s profile available for subscribers.

“Skilled sniper netted 17 goals in 36 games before his recall from Chicago Wolves .. scored 12 goals between his second and third assists of the season .. watched Blues postseason from press box and then was scoreless in three Calder Cup games .. crafty and slick in possession thanks to good athleticism, quick hands .. beats opponents with elusiveness and speed of execution .. flashy skater – light and nimble on his feet .. lateral agility is well above average – excels making diagonal cuts .. able to sustain speed through crossover sequences .. at times shy about driving into congested areas .. work-in-progress away from the puck .. scattered, unstructured, not a puck winner .. swerves out of coverage lanes – can be slow picking up defensive marks .. attempts low-percentage diagonal passes .. may not play regularly if he’s not in the top six”

Jori Lehtera becomes ever more central to the attack, centering the top line in the absence of Paul Stastny. He had been previously lining up with Schwartz. He skated 22:40 in the last St. Louis game, leads the team in P/60 with 3.59, and is familiar with Steen and Tarasenko. He skated 82% of his shifts in 2014-15 alongside Tarasenko. An opportunity for a sophomore breakout and significant increase of his 44-point rookie season.

Colton Pareyko has seized the opportunity opened up by Shattenkirk’s injury. He has produced five points in the last six games, including two power play points in 2:34 of average ice time. He played over 22 minutes a game for the last two and shown poise and confidence, and not afraid to rush the puck. At 6’5” and 225 pounds he looks like he belongs at the pro level.

Buffalo has lost Evander Kane for four to six weeks with a torn MCL. The Sabres have recalled forward Tim Schaller from Rochester, where he had a goal and an assist in six games. Line juggling at practice saw Nick Delauriers taking his place, but a natural goal scorer will be hard to replace on the offensively challenged Sabres, having only scored 16 goals this season in eight games. I am not sure there is a silver lining for anyone’s fantasy upside in this situation. Sam Reinhart may be the biggest beneficiary, but he has already produced solid numbers with four points in eight games.

Aleksandr Barkov is expected to be out of action for two to four weeks with a broken bone in his hand. Surgery is not required, limiting his time on the sidelines. It will affect his grip on his stick and something you will want to monitor on his return, before inserting him into your line-up. It is a blow to the Florida Panthers as he appeared to emerging as a breakout star, at both ends of the ice. Three goals and six points in seven games, picking up from the hot finish to last season alongside Jaromir Jagr and Jonathan Huberdeau. Exceptional two-way play for a third year pro.

Ryan Johansen listed as day to day, but undergoing tests. He has been plagued by low energy, and the team is insisting it is not related to his heart, after being hospitalized this summer for an accelerated heart rate according to the Columbus Dispatch.

He missed the Blue Jackets first win of the season under new coach John Totorella. I am not a big fan of Tortorella’s coaching style, but this may be a good fit in the short term to inject some energy into a moribund team. The personnel fits his style. If Johansen’s medical concerns turn out to be easily remedied, he could be an excellent buy-low target.

Detroit’s two free-agent acquisitions are now both on the shelf. Mike Green has been sidelined for two to three weeks with a shoulder injury, from a hit from Calgary’s Josh Jooris. Green had been struggling to adjust to life in Motor City, having been replaced prior to his injury on the first unit powerplay by Niklas Kronwall, as the only defenseman on the unit with four forwards, prior. He had only produced one point in seven games.

Brad Richards continues to undergo tests on his back, while not believed to be serious, the potential for continued problems this season should make you wary. Age combined with the always tricky back could make for continued difficulties.

The NHL’s three stars were led by Evgeni Kuznetsov with a spectacular nine point week. He is no longer under any radar, but has looked sensational centering Alexander Ovechkin and Oshie. The shocking thing is he could actually had more goals from his chances. He provides two dangerous scoring units, with Niklas Backstrom coming back strongly from injury with seven points in three games to skate between newcomer Justin Williams and Johansen.

The Caps look like they could be a offensive powerhouse this season, with John Carlson emerging as a bonafide superstar on the back end, and a second-ranked power play, that features two excellent distributor from the half boards in Backstrom and Kuznetsov - with some deadly finishers in Ovechkin and Oshie to feed.

Fantasy Hockey Mailbag — A Manic Monday

Chris Wassel — Mon, 20 Oct 2014 19:14:49 +0000

Another week has gone by and as always there are more questions than answers. October has revealed a lot of unexpected twists and turns. The biggest concern among fantasy hockey players is, you guessed it, injuries. It eats away at the mettle of the owner. There are questions that just seem to focus intently on these players and possible solutions.

Are you ready to wade into this week's mailbag? This one will truly have an injurious nature to it. You have been warned!

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What has been the most significant injury of the fantasy hockey season so far?

Some are going to argue this until they are blue in the face. However, the recent injury to Victor Hedman is likely to fit that criteria. If the expected diagnosis rings true, the defenseman could be out around a month or so. That is a significant blow to owners who saw Hedman's stock rise into the elite among fantasy defensemen.

Hand injuries are or can be a pain in the neck to heal. The official prognosis should be available early in the week but when Jon Cooper hinted "he could miss a significant amount of time", that was a bad sign. It left a lot of fantasy owners with that sick to the stomach feeling. His seven points in four games was not even the most "wow" stat. It was the five power play points. No one likes to see a player of Hedman's stature go down to injury but the one saving grace was that it occurred early in the season.

What is the worst injury prognosis that a fantasy owner can hear?

The best example of this is the Paul Stastny news. By now, you heard that his arm was in a sling after the Arizona game. Then you heard the dreaded prognosis that the forward was out "week to week" with an upper body injury. Thanks to J.P. Rutherford for the news. Again it is not the best of news and it is even tougher to speculate on the severity. Week to week with a shoulder just means it could be anything from bruised AC joint to much worse (say a full Rotator Cuff tear).

It is always better (as bad as it is) to get a more definitive timetable for an injury. When a player is out 4-6 weeks, you have an idea for the most part that "Player X" will be out that length of time. "Week to week" could be anything from a week to a month to even longer. Consider other options on St. Louis like Vladimir Tarasenko for the time being as he is still available in quite a few fantasy leagues out there. Okay we have time for one more.

Which Alexander Steen do we see this year? The breakout version of Mr. Steen or a considerably lesser version?

Now these are the fun questions that test us "experts" the most. Alexander Steen had two 45+ point seasons before last year's near 30-30 campaign (33G 29A). There are some factors that must be considered too. Since the 2009-10 season, Steen missed ten or more games in all but one season (the 2013 shortened year when he missed eight games). Therefore, injuries have to be considered as a potential tick downward in production. Here are those numbers from the St. Louis Blues.

2013-14 -- 62 pts (missed 14 games
2013 -- 27 pts (shortened year)
2011-12 -- 24 pts (missed 39 games)
2010-11 -- 51 pts (missed 10 games)
2009-10 -- 47 pts (missed 14 games)
2008-09 -- 24 pts (played 61 games post trade from TOR)

The numbers are kind of all over the place, aren't they? This all comes down to how healthy Steen can stay. We have seen Paul Stastny go down to injury already and the Blues do play a grinding style that can make it a little tougher on their top six forwards than most teams. Most signs point toward a 60-65 point year if the forward can stay healthy but with a lean towards an injury, 50-55 points seems more realistic. He should be around 14-18 power play points and close to 200 shots on net.

Either way Steen is going to be given every opportunity. In the case he stays healthy, 20-25 power play points is not out of the question based on shot volume and his potential of hovering around 26-32 goals. It is a broad range, I understand, but this is the best that can be expected with a team that preaches balanced scoring and boasts one of the best top 9's in all of hockey.

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Next week, we will have more answers to your questions on the mailbag. Thanks for reading!