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REVIEW: Unlike Vegas’ amazing run to the Stanley Cup Final in its inaugural season, Seattle had a miserable first NHL campaign, but any Kraken fans who were prepared for a long, painful road to competitiveness were pleasantly surprised when Seattle posted a 46-28-8 record in 2022-23. Seattle turnaround was fueled by the squad scoring 73 additional goals compared to the prior year, flipping them from being among the worst teams offensively to one of the best. Rather than be led by some new acquisition, their scoring renaissance was fueled by returning Kraken players Jared McCann, Matthew Beniers and Jaden Schwartz combining to score an extra 47 goals more than the trio mustered in 2021-22. At the same time, defenseman Vince Dunn shattered his previous career-high of 35 points by contributing 14 goals and 50 assists. Seattle’s goaltenders were still a problem, as evidenced by their combined .890 save percentage, but the Kraken ranked seventh in 5-on-5 expected goals against (163.59), which kept the team defensively above water despite that poor netminding. Not satisfied with merely making the playoffs, Seattle managed to earn its first playoff series win by besting Colorado in seven games before falling to Dallas in the second round.
What’s Changed? Forward Daniel Sprong, who had 21 goals last season, and goaltender Martin Jones left as free agents. Jones’ departure opens the door for Joey Daccord to compete with Philipp Grubauer for starts. Other than that, the team figures to be largely the same.
What would success look like? With the Kraken’s existing forward core, they should challenge for a playoff spot again, but what would take this team to the next level would be a resurgence from Grubauer. Although the goaltender has struggled over his first two campaigns with Seattle, he was once an amazing netminder, posting a .920 save percentage over his first 214 career NHL contests. He briefly regained his form when facing his former team, the Avalanche, in the first round and was a huge part of that series victory. Grubauer didn’t look as impressive against Dallas, but maybe there’s still hope for the 31-year-old.
What could go wrong? McCann is in danger of regressing after scoring a career high with 40 goals in 79 contests last season, particularly because his 19.0 shooting percentage was well above his 12.1% career average. It’s also possible that Seattle’s offensive prowess last year was something of a perfect storm, given that its top five scorers and six of its top seven were able to play at least 79 games. Sprong being limited to 66 contests was the only significant setback the Kraken suffered on the injury front last year. They might not be as fortunate two seasons in a row.
Top Breakout Candidate: Beniers, Seattle’s first ever pick and the second overall selection in the 2021 draft, broke out with 57 points last season. Will Shane Wright, taken fourth overall in 2022, follow in his footsteps this year? Wright could develop into a superb two-way forward in the vein of the now retired Patrice Bergeron. Although Wright was unable to stick with Seattle last year, he got some more seasoning in the OHL and AHL and seems poised to make a serious run at a middle-six spot during training camp.
Matty Beniers was drafted second overall in 2021 and was the first ever draft pick of the Seattle Kraken. After finishing up his 2021-22 season at the University of Michigan, Beniers would play 10 games with the Kraken where he scored three goals and six assists. That rolled into his rookie season in 2022-23 where he scored 24 goals and 33 assists in 80 games, winning the Calder Trophy as the rookie of the year by a healthy margin. He has an excellent shot, finishing at a rate of 16.3% so far in his career. Plus, he can use both his big frame and stick skills to excel in tight spaces. Additionally, he is an exceptionally disciplined player, only taking one minor penalty last season, helping him finish fourth in the league in penalty differential. Heading into his sophomore season, Beniers will want to be the one to help the Kraken crack their powerplay woes and he’d love to improve at faceoffs. His 42.2% faceoff win percentage so far in his career is abysmal. If he can keep growing, the 20-year-old who already has a well-crafted game, could become one of the best two-way centers in the NHL.
The days of Jared McCann being a castaway are over. After being tossed around from Vancouver to Florida to Pittsburgh, McCann was used as a pawn to protect Toronto’s roster in the NHL Expansion Draft. In his first season in Seattle, McCann recorded a career-high 50 points with 27 goals and 23 assists. He went ahead and followed that up with 40 goals and 30 assists last season, both career-highs again. At 27 years old, McCann has found his spot as a first line scoring winger with an up-and-coming Kraken team. He finished fourth behind Pastrnak, McDavid, and Rantanen in even strength goals with 30. McCann was also one of the only bright spots on the Kraken powerplay, leading them with seven goals and 16 points in just over 200 minutes. While there are doubts that he can finish at such a high rate again, ending last season with a 19% shooting percentage, he has shown throughout his career that he can also help his teammates finish well too. Plus, if the Kraken ever figure out their powerplay woes, he will be the one to receive the greatest benefit as the Kraken’s go-to shooter on the man advantage.
After a career-high 57 points in 80 games in 2021-22, the Columbus Blue Jackets decided that Oliver Bjorkstrand was a luxury that they could no longer afford due to cap constraints and sent him to Seattle. Bjorkstrand finished his first season with the Kraken with his fourth 20-goal season. The six-foot right-handed winger is an excellent forechecker, wreaking havoc on opponents trying to make their way up the ice. On a deeper Kraken team, he is able to dial in to his specific skill set. Dave Hakstol and the Kraken coaching staff placed him largely alongside Yanni Gourde and waiver-wire pick-up Eeli Tolvanen. The trio of more tactical forwards are tasked with keeping the ice tilting in the Kraken’s favor. In their time together, the line had a 56% share of shot attempts and outscored opponents 24 to 16. Bjorkstrand also saw 189 minutes on the powerplay last season, splitting time between units. The Kraken powerplay has struggled in its two years of existence, and Bjorkstrand was a part of that last season. If Bjorkstrand wants a shot at another career year this season, he will need to be a part of a growth in the Kraken powerplay in 2023-24.
The 33-year-old winger played his part in a phenomenal offensive year for the Seattle Kraken, scoring 20 goals and adding 43 assists. Eberle offers a veteran presence alongside Matty Beniers and Jared McCann, in which the former won the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year, while the latter scored 40 goals for the first time in his career. Eberle has been given offensive deployment most of his career, and Dave Hakstol and the Seattle Kraken coaching staff has amplified that since arriving on the scene in the fall of 2021. He has seen 15% of his 5-on-5 shifts start in the offensive zone with the Kraken, which is 2% higher than his career average. He has also continued to see high usage on the powerplay as he continues to get more than two minutes of powerplay time per game. The only time he has fallen short of that number was in the 2017-18 season with the New York Islanders when he was only on the ice for 1.93 powerplay minutes per game that season. As long as Eberle continues to see the offensive usage he does now, he should continue to age with reasonable production.
As the Kraken’s pick in the NHL Expansion Draft, Yanni Gourde brought a sense of personality and culture to the Kraken locker room. Although he stands at just 5’ 9”, the Quebec-native made his way into the NHL as a scrappy forward. It was the way he made his way into a deep Tampa Bay Lightning lineup at 25 years old, and it’s the way he is continuing to be useful at 31 years old. Gourde battles hard in all three zones, especially on opponents trying to exit their zone. His level of detail is why he can take on tough matchups and tilt the ice in his team’s favor. The only Kraken forwards who started a lower percentage of their shifts at 5-on-5 in the offensive zone were Andre Burakovsky and Ryan Donato. Going along with his defensive usage, Gourde was also on the ice for 164 shorthanded minutes last season, behind only Alex Wennberg and Brandon Tanev. That was the most time that Gourde had spent penalty killing in a season in his career, as the Kraken substituted his powerplay time for penalty killing time. One should expect more of the same of that usage this season but watch out for a bounce-back in his goal scoring with his shooting percentage regressing (9.93% last season vs career 14.5%).
After a revival of his career in Colorado, notching 61 goals and 89 assists in 191 games, Burakovskly tested unrestricted free agency where he elected to sign with the Seattle Kraken. The Colorado Avalanche had their eye on Burakovsky for his transition skills and shot. After a pair of disappointing 25-point seasons with the Capitals, that may have been hard to spot at the time. With the Kraken, Burakovsky continued to build on the offensive success he was having in Colorado, scoring 39 points in 49 games. However, a lower body injury in February would cause him to miss the rest of the season. Burakovsky found his home alongside Alex Wennberg, a forward who is responsible defensively and can help with the starting phases of breakouts deep in the zone. When he was in the lineup, he also saw time on the top unit. While he can make poor decisions at times, his offensive versatility makes him a valuable asset. The Kraken are hoping that he can pick up where he left off, as he is one of the more skilled forwards on their roster. Given their counterattacking style, they could use his ability to create offense off of the rush.
After a promising start to his career, scoring 59 points in 80 games in 2016-17, Wennberg’s offense would fizzle out in the remainder of his time in Columbus and Florida. The 6’ 2” Swede has great size and playmaking abilities, but his lack of physicality and mentality to shoot the puck left prior coaches wanting more. Of the 371 forwards who played 500 or more minutes at 5-on-5 last season, only two forwards had a lower rate of individual shot attempts. Of course, that leads to a low rate of goal scoring and point production. He has scored 24 goals in his first 162 games with the Kraken, but there is always the risk something like 2018-19 happens again where he finishes with two goals in 75 games, shooting 3.1%. However, it’s clear that Dave Hakstol and the Kraken coaching staff love Wennberg. He was the top penalty killing option for them along with 186 minutes of powerplay time. Ultimately, the Kraken’s use of him as a dependable, defensively responsible forward will hurt his box score stats, but that is also important for helping other players on the team blossom.
A first round pick in 2017, the 5’ 10” Finnish forward struggled to make a mark with the Nashville Predators. In 135 games between the 2017-18 season and last season, Tolvanen accumulated only 25 goals and 26 points with the Predators. On December 11th, 2022, Nashville placed Tolvanen on waivers where he was picked up by the Kraken. Over the remainder of the season with the Kraken, Tolvanen would score 16 goals and 11 assists. Some credit must be given to the Seattle Kraken organization who were committed to his success. He would spend 87.5% of his 5-on-5 time with Yanni Gourde, and 70.0% with Oliver Bjorkstrand. Having the opportunity to play with talented players who are experienced alleviated some of the pressure that was resting on his shoulders. His linemates also opened up space for him that he was able to take full advantage of. For a 24-year-old winger, Tolvanen already has a well-rounded defensive game to go along with his above-average shot. But he wasn’t exactly the play-driver that he would’ve needed to be in Nashville in order to succeed there. Alongside play-drivers who need some help finishing, Tolvanen is the perfect complementary piece that we saw in the latter two-thirds of the 2022-23 season.
After missing most of the Seattle Kraken’s inaugural season, Jaden Schwartz returned with a much healthier year, getting on the ice for 71 games in 2022-23. Any worries that his hand injury that he suffered in January of 2022 would hold him back seem to be alleviated as Schwartz scored 21 goals on 167 shots on goal, a finishing rate of 12.6%. Furthermore, he’s never been much of a shoot-first forward. He only ranked 161st among regular forwards in the rate he attempted to shoot the puck at 5-on-5 last season, a large chunk of which were blocked. He’s known mostly for being dependable at most things, but not elite at any one thing. This can be reflected both in his lack of consistent linemates, as the coaching staff feels comfortable playing him with many different forwards, but also his quality of competition. Schwartz faced the third-hardest competition at 5-on-5 among Kraken forwards last season in terms of weighted-average time-on-ice of opponents. At 31 years old, it’s clear that Schwartz won’t blow you out of the water with his box score stats. He has only cleared 60 points once in his career. Despite playing on the number one 5-on-5 offense in the league last season and getting a hefty dose of powerplay time, he was not on track to add another 60-point season. He has instead reverted to being a dependable piece for the coaching staff in the middle six.
Vince Dunn had a breakout 2022-23 campaign scoring 14 goals and 50 assists in 81 games for the Kraken. His 64-point total, which ranked tenth among defensemen last season, close to doubled his previous career-high of 35 which he set in 2018-19 and 2021-22. While he did play most of his 5-on-5 minutes alongside Adam Larsson in the inaugural season for the Kraken, he was close to glued to his hip last season, spending 88.3% of those minutes with Larsson. Dunn, a player who is excellent at breaking out of the zone and has a well-developed offensive toolset, has the habit of making big mistakes from time to time. A steady defensive partner like Larsson helps bring the most out of Dunn. It also helped that he had a slightly more skilled forward core to support last season as well. And with Mark Giordano out of the picture, the first powerplay unit was his all year, and no one is set to take that role away from him. He may seem some regression this coming season after shooting 9.3%, but his elevated production should be the new normal for him.
Perhaps best known for being the player the Edmonton Oilers exchanged Taylor Hall for, Adam Larsson is a 6’ 3” staple on the back end. Last season, playing with Vince Dunn and a deep forward core that helped push the Kraken’s even strength offense to the best in the league, Larsson was able to achieve a new career-high 33 points in 82 games. The Swede won’t win you over for his offensive play, but rather his dependability. He is talented defensively, allowing his teammates to take risks at times knowing that he will clean it up. He also hasn’t missed a game since November of 2019. Larsson led the Kraken in shorthanded time on ice last season at 227 minutes, or 59.2% of the Kraken’s time shorthanded. His usage and unwavering commitment to defense also helped propel him to ninth in blocked shots last season, and fourth over the last three seasons. Adam Larsson is the guy that does the dirty jobs that no one else wants to do, and he does it well. He will likely find his way into the top 100 in points among defensemen just by his usage and will log a substantial amount of shorthanded time while blocking shots.
The 6’ 7” defenseman requires special permission from the league for the length of his stick. Not only is that stick extraordinarily long, but it is also 120 flex. Whatever works for the 2011 first round pick as he scored nine goals on 76 shots on goal last season. The shooting percentage of 11.8% will be impossible for him to reproduce, but it speaks to the utter strangeness in his game. Oleksiak had also gotten hot before, scoring five goals on 33 shots in the 2016-17 season. But at times, Oleksiak gets cold, like his first season in Seattle where he only managed a single goal on 95 shots. His unpredictability is what makes him a fun player to follow. Last season, for the first time in his 11-season career, Oleksiak was a staple to the penalty kill. He was the left-handed defenseman that was deployed alongside Adam Larsson, a role that was previously unfilled. You may have assumed that a defenseman of his size would have played a major role on penalty kills before, but Oleksiak’s preferred play style is as unique as his numbers. He loves to jump up into plays, helping transition the puck like a forward, as opposed to sticking back and being sturdy. Perhaps that’s why he led the Kraken in defensive zone starts last season.
After a disappointing 2021-22 season where the Washington Capitals reduced his ice time from 19 minutes per game to 17 minutes per game, Justin Schultz made his way to the west coast where he played just a bit more time with the Seattle Kraken. The two-time Stanley Cup champion has aged out of his days of being a stud offensive defenseman to complement Kris Letang’s work. His 34 points with the Kraken last season was the highest point production he recorded in a season since scoring 51 points in the 2016-17 season with Pittsburgh. Not good enough to be a top-pairing offensive defenseman for most teams, Schultz finds himself in a bit of an odd spot, as most general managers would prefer to fill the bottom four spots with penalty killers or younger offensive defensemen. The Seattle Kraken were one of the few teams that had the perfect slot for him, and he found his way to a bounce back season alongside Jamie Oleksiak. While Vince Dunn is undoubtedly the top choice for the first powerplay unit, Schultz fills in nicely on the second unit. Luckily for Schultz, there isn’t much contention for that spot either. You can expect more of the same from Schultz in the final year of his contract.
The Seattle Kraken had one job for Philipp Grubauer last season – do better than the year before, and don’t crumble in the postseason. And while he didn’t make the kind of massive bounce-back that the team undoubtedly hoped for, he did complete his assignment; he dragged his save percentage up from the mid-.880’s to just shy of the .900 threshold, doubling his quality start percentage from the year before and creeping closer to the league average in goals saved above expected. He remained an underperformer from a pure monetary standpoint, especially given just how much money they’d handed him in free agency, but he climbed out of the basement enough to bring the rest of the team up with him.
Grubauer’s biggest problem now wasn’t that he looked like he was playing catch-up all year; unlike in his first season with the expansion franchise, he managed to hit crisper angles and corral more shots before allowing sloppy rebounds. While he really elevated his game in his good performances, though, Grubauer’s biggest issue became his consistency; he had a lot of elite games, he had an above-average number of absolute stinkers, and he put up almost zero games that fell in the in-between. There was no such thing for the German-born goaltender as a league-average performance; he gave games his everything or he nearly got chased from the net, and he continued to waffle between the two performances all the way to the last week of the regular season. That, in itself, is a reason for concern for Seattle; he proved he still has excellent games in the tank, but he didn’t prove he could deliver those with enough reliability to tab him as the number one and breathe a sigh of relief. He’ll need to take that final step forward this year if he wants to prove his contract was worth it for the Pacific Northwest club.
Projected starts: 55-60
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FORWARDS
Nikita Kucherov
The twenty-nine-year-old Russian forward is one of the most offensively talented players in the NHL today. While missing the entire 2021 shortened season due to injury may have helped an already strong Tampa team win a Stanley Cup, his absence from the lineup over the last two seasons may have quieted the buzz surrounding 2019 Hart Trophy winner. Despite only playing in 47 regular season games in 2021-22, Kucherov still produced 69 points. While he is one of the best finishers in the league with a career shooting percentage of 15.0%, his ability to process the game quickly and think creatively enables him to be a stellar playmaker as well. If he stays healthy this season, we can expect over 100 points from Kucherov.
Brayden Point
When he injured himself in the seventh game of the first round series against Toronto in May, his importance to the Lightning’s Stanly Cup chances became clear. Although the strong Lightning team were able to handle Florida and New York, the Lightning desperately needed a healthy Point to stand a chance against the juggernaut Avalanche. Point is small for an NHL center at 5-foot-10, but he makes up for it through his tenacity and smarts. Given the bumper position on the Lightning’s first powerplay unit, Point helps balance the Bolts’ strength on the wings with a quick release and the ability to support his teammates. And while he doesn’t spend any time on the penalty kill, it’s worth noting he takes penalties at a very low rate compared to his peers.
Steven Stamkos
There was a point in time when Steven Stamkos was the main guy in Tampa. While the captain and former first overall pick is undoubtedly still a star, being surrounded by immense talent helps take some of the spotlight off of him. Missing only one game last season, Stamkos was able to break the 40-goal mark for the sixth time in his career as well as break the 100-point mark for the first time in his career. Perhaps most known for his one-timer on the powerplay, Stamkos is also a deadly finisher at even strength too. He was the only player in the NHL last season who scored more than 20 goals with at least a 20% shooting percentage at even strength. This should be a milestone season for Stamkos as he is 19 goals and 9 assists shy of 500 a piece, as well as only 28 points and 78 games shy of 1,000. It would be impressive if he could reach all four.
Nick Paul
Pending unrestricted free agency, Nick Paul was traded by the Ottawa Senators around the NHL’s trade deadline to the Tampa Bay Lightning. After fitting in like a circle through a circular hole, Paul extended with the Lightning long term. Despite being a rather late bloomer, getting drafted in the fourth round of the 2013 draft and not becoming an NHL regular until the 2019-20 season, Paul was thought highly of around the league. When the 6-foot-3 winger arrived in Florida, it became evident why. Paul was a dominant force on the defensive side of the game, particularly as a tenacious forechecker. While the Ontario native lacks offensive output, scoring only 80 points in 248 NHL regular season games, he helps his teammates on the ice with him as well as those who hop on the ice after him. He’s one of the better support players in the league, and the players he’s supporting are quite talented.
Brandon Hagel
The Saskatoon native went in the sixth round of the 2016 NHL draft. A few seasons later, he would make a weak Chicago Blackhawks roster at twenty-two years of age. After putting up 24 points in 52 games in his rookie season with the Blackhawks, he extended with them for three years. However, after a hot start for Hagel, and a disappointing start for the Blackhawks, the Lightning came calling. Hagel finished the season with 25 goals and 19 assists in 77 games. The winger is all forward all of the time. He’s a solid forechecker who is willing to get to the dirty areas to get things done. He does leave you wanting a bit more from him in his own end at even strength, but his skating abilities and grit keeps him as an option to kill penalties. He’ll play a much more sheltered role in Tampa than he would have in Chicago, which will be a much better fit for him.
Ross Colton
When Ross Colton scored 9 goals in 30 games in his rookie campaign, he would become one of two players. Either his scoring would settle down, or he’d be another late-round pick from Steve Yzerman’s era that would find himself as an NHL regular. After last season, it appears that the latter is correct. Colton was somewhat of a swiss army knife for the Lightning last season, playing all over the lineup. Despite only averaging just shy of 13 minutes per game, Colton still managed to bury 22 goals and added 17 assists along to it. Colton has proven that he has an above average shot while being a good player in transition and is willing to get to dirty areas. This also helps him create a large penalty differential for the Lightning, however, he hasn’t faired as much success as he’d like on the Lightning’s second powerplay unit so far in his NHL career.
Alex Killorn
At thirty-two years old, Killorn set a career-high 34 assists and 59 points while playing all 82 games for the fourth time in his career last season. However, certain parts of his game have begun to fall off a tad. We didn’t see the solid defensive side of the game that we’ve been used to seeing out of Killorn last season, and also spent a good deal of time in the box taking 33 minor penalties. Entering his eleventh, and perhaps last season as a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning, it appears he still has the trust of Jon Cooper in all situations. Given his commitment to his team, Killorn has spent time in the net front role and on the penalty kill regularly throughout his career. You can bet that Killorn will settle into his role and make his potential last run with the Lightning count.
Corey Perry
After losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2020 and 2021 Stanley Cup Finals, Corey Perry decided to join them. However, he may have just been cursed as he lost in his third straight appearance. The 2021-22 season felt a bit like a revival for Perry. He played all 82 games, coming close to a 20-goal season. Unlike his last few teams, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a tremendous forecheck which fit Perry’s game. Even at thirty-six, he was able to play the physical type of game that made him successful in Anaheim. He was getting on pucks on the wall, around the net, and sometimes the other team got the puck into the neutral zone. Perry even got a fair deal of time on the powerplay where he spent time as the net front man as well as some time in the bumper. The now rejuvenated Perry will look to give it another try this season.
Patrick Maroon
It’s been over four years now since there was a Stanley Cup Final without Patrick Maroon in it. The 6-foot-3 winger is known around the league as one of the most lovable tough guys. His big frame makes him difficult to handle low in the offensive zone. He makes his money on the forecheck, screening the goalie, retrieving rebounds, and taking the puck to the net. He doesn’t have the skating ability or puck skills to play up the lineup, but he’s become extremely effective in his role. In the 587 minutes he spent with Corey Perry and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare last season at 5-on-5, the Lightning outscored their opponents 25-9. While Maroon only put up 27 points last season, he doesn’t need to be a producer.
DEFENSE
Victor Hedman
At this point in his career, Victor Hedman isn’t a secret. The 6-foot-6 Swede blew his previous career-high of 72 points out of the water with 85 last season. It was also the first time in his career that he was able to bury 20 goals. If it weren’t for Cale Makar and Roman Josi, Hedman would’ve won the Norris Trophy for the second time in his career. For such a big man, Hedman is an incredible all-around skater. Whether it comes to gap control in the neutral zone, carrying the puck forward in transition, or keeping the puck in the offensive zone, Hedman can be depended on to get the job done. His game isn’t filled with flash as much as his consistent execution breeds success. He also heads the Lightning’s powerplay unit with his IQ, skating and passing abilities, helping with zone entries, setting up one-timers, sending shots through bodies, and keeping the puck in the zone. Unless something unfortunate happens, Hedman will continue to be a staple on the Lightning again this season.
Mikhail Sergachev
The twenty-four-year-old Russian is a smooth skating offensive-defenseman. Sergachev is an efficient passer in all three zones. He breaks the puck out well, can move the puck north on regroups, and can manage the point in the offensive zone. He’s been fairly consistent in his point production over his first five seasons, keeping a 39-point pace per 82 games. Behind Ryan McDonagh and Victor Hedman, Sergachev saw himself falling into a role on the third pair. As a result, he didn’t have a regular partner at even strength last season. With McDonagh being moved to Nashville, there is an opportunity for Sergachev to jump up the lineup. He’d most likely play alongside Erik Cernak, who he had a 56.8 CF% and 53.7 xGF% with in 267 minutes at 5-on-5 last season. Playing alongside a defensive-defenseman would unlock a new level to Sergachev’s game, allowing him to take more risks which would amplify the offensive skills he’s shown in his career so far.
Erik Cernak
The 6-foot-3 Slovakian is the Lightning’s go-to man to shut down opposing forwards. His impact might not show up in the box score, but Jon Cooper’s usage of Cernak tells you all you need to know. He receives a hefty dosage of defensive zone starts. He started shifts in his own end twice as much as his offensive zone shift starts last season. He also eats up a ton of shorthanded minutes. Over 14.5% of his total time-on-ice last season was on the penalty kill. Cernak isn’t the type of defensive-defenseman that sits back and plays a conservative game either. He has the skating ability to support his big frame. He will take the battle to you at the blue line or in the corner. He can also move the puck up ice once he forces the turnover, where he’s not afraid to join the rush. After signing an extension in July, and hoping for a healthy season, the twenty-five-year-old will be looking to make another jump this season and put his name alongside the likes of Jaccob Slavin as one of the top defensive-defensemen in the game.
Ian Cole
Expecting to move Mikhail Sergachev up the lineup this season, the Lightning went out and signed Ian Cole to fill his spot on the bottom pairing. The thirty-three-year-old veteran will be entering his thirteenth NHL season, offering a veteran presence to a team that’s been to the last three Stanley Cup Finals. Cole is coming off of a one season stint with the Carolina Hurricanes where he scored 2 goals and added 17 assists in 75 games. Prior to that, he spent three seasons with the Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild where he was put in a defensive, depth role. That’s probably what we can expect Cole to see in Tampa. He’s good at shutting plays down in transition and moving the puck back up the ice, but he lacks top-end skill to be effective in offensive zone play. He’ll kill penalties and will be able to step into a shutdown second-pair role if either Hedman or Sergachev miss time due to injury or suspension.
Cal Foote
The former first round draft pick will be entering his third season with the Lightning. Entering the league in a sheltered, bottom-pairing role has helped him adjust to the speed of the game. At times, he can be a bit weak in his own end. His 6-foot-4 frame won’t get him pushed around, but he has trouble reading the play at times – something that made him effective at the junior levels. However, he has shown flashes of what made him such a highly regarded prospect five years ago. He has the ability to retrieve pucks and move them quickly up ice when he is confident. With the exit of Jan Rutta, a spot with Victor Hedman could be up for Foote to grab. Perhaps the ability to play with one of the best defensemen in the game will help Foote take the next step in his career.
GOALTENDING
Andrei Vasilevskiy
At this point, not much needs to be said about Andrei Vasilevskiy that hasn’t already been well-established. He’s quickly become the most successful goaltender among his class, quickly surpassing other highly touted names like Matt Murray and Frederik Andersen to stand head and shoulders above the rest as the best of the 2010’s draftees.
There’s little risk that Tampa is going to see much of a change in net, barring some kind of injury or uncharacteristic regression year for Vasilevskiy. While most of the league has made a move towards operating with a goaltending tandem that splits starts and rides hot hands, the Lightning have very firmly put all their chips into Vasilevskiy’s basket – and with very little in the way of free cap space to spend on bringing in another option, they’ll most likely continue doing what’s been working for them. Vasilevskiy, who thrives on fluid movements and a healthy dose of high-end strength to bail the team out when they need it most, should be the heavily favored starter most nights – and on the nights he desperately needs a break, Brian Elliott is once again sitting second string on an incredibly team-friendly deal to fill in the gaps. There’s relief on the way in coming years, as the Lightning have smartly invested in some quality goaltending drafting and should be ready for Hugo Alnefelt to get a shot before too long. But for now, the team has been trying to maximize Vasilevskiy’s value while he’s in his prime – and by all accounts, with three Stanley Cup Finals and two cups in the last three years, their strategy seems to be working.
Projected starts: 65-70
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Vegas excelled right from the start of the season. The Golden Knights suffered an incredibly unlikely string of goaltending injuries that culminated in Dylan Ferguson, who spent most of the season in the WHL, even getting a cameo between the pipes, but not even misfortune on that scale could do more than briefly slow them. Vegas posted a 51-24-7 record and then overwhelmed the Los Angeles Kings, San Jose Sharks, and Winnipeg Jets to claim the Western Conference title. Only the Washington Capitals in the Stanley Cup Final were finally able to break apart the Golden Knights’ attack and solve Marc-Andre Fleury to deny Vegas a championship in its very first season.
NO GOLDEN CONTRACTS – Vegas got to the Stanley Cup Final on the backs of players that were enjoying breakout or career years and several of them were also due contract extensions. That could have been a recipe for big paydays, but things considered, the Golden Knights have avoided handed out massive contracts.

Jonathan Marchessault got the biggest payday with a six-year, $30 million extension that kicks in this season after he jumped from 30 goals and 51 points in 2016-17 to 27 goals and 75 points in 77 contests last season. The Golden Knights’ other offensive leader, William Karlsson, was handed a one-year, $5.25 million bridge contract as an RFA. That puts the onus on Karlsson to prove that he can at least come close to repeating his 43-goal, 78-point performance from 2017-18.
David Perron also set a career-high with 66 points while James Neal scored scored 25 goals, but Vegas allowed them to walk as unrestricted free agents. In their place though, Vegas signed UFA Paul Stastny to a three-year, $19.5 million deal.
On defense, Colin Miller was a standout in 2017-18 with 10 goals and 41 points in 82 games, up from 13 points in 2016-17. Vegas was still able to ink the RFA to a four-year, $15.5 million contract. That left Fleury with the biggest contract in terms of annual salary after the Golden Knights gave him a three-year, $21 million contract that begins in 2019-20. Of course, out of all the Golden Knights’ leaders last season, Fleury was the one with the best resume coming into the 2017-18 campaign.
IS REGRESSION INEVITABLE? – It’s good that the Golden Knights didn’t go crazy when it came to re-signing the 2017-18 standouts because there is reason to believe that last season’s magic won’t be repeated.
Karlsson is the easiest player to pick on when arguing that key Golden Knights stars are due to regress. He had a 23.4% shooting percentage, which was the highest of the salary cap era (min. 150 SOG) and just screams unsustainable, especially from someone that had a 7.7% career shooting percentage prior to 2017-18. He also had a very high 5v5 expected goals differential and on-ice expected goals differential, which again are warning signs that he could regress. He’s far from the only person on Vegas with 5v5 expected goals differential and/or on-ice expected goals differentials that are flashing red lights. Marchessault, Brayden McNabb, Reilly Smith, Nate Schmidt, and Erik Haula are also among those on that list.
On top of that, Vegas’ situation has been complicated by the announcement that Schmidt will serve a 20-game suspension for violating the NHL/NHLPA's Performance Enhancing Substances Program. While Schmidt was already on the list of players that are in danger of regressing offensively this season, he was counted on to eat 22:14 minutes per game in 2017-18 and missing him is still a big loss for Vegas.
OUTLOOK – Vegas managed to defy expectations last season, but the Golden Knights still have a lot to prove. They look like a team perfectly capable of making the playoffs, but not one that should be nearly as dominate as they were in 2017-18. The one X-Factor in all this is Erik Karlsson as Vegas has frequently popped up in trade rumors regarding him since the 2018 trade deadline. If the Golden Knights do manage to get him without meaningfully dipping into their NHL roster, then that could elevate them from being contenders for a playoff spot to serious Cup candidates again.
]]>Marc-Andre Fleury becomes the biggest name on the roster, anchoring the team in net. James Neal brings his sniper’s touch and 238 NHL goals to lead the offense. He ranks 14th in the NHL over the lasts six years with 165. There are other interesting acquisitions, with many likely acquired to be flipped in short order.
GM George McPhee has held all the cards so far, but the state of play remains in motion, with many chips left to fall. It is premature to analyze the Golden Knights today, so in the meantime here is their current roster.
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Depth Chart
| LEFT WING | CENTER | RIGHT WING |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Marchessault | Vadim Shipachyov | James Neal |
| David Perron | Cody Eakin | Reilly Smith |
| William Carrier | William Karlsson | Teemu Pulkkinen |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare | Oscar Lindberg | Chris Thorburn |
| Brendan Leipsic | Erik Haula | Alex Tuch |
| Connor Brickley | Tomas Nosek | Tomas Hyka |
| Nikita Gusev | Reid Duke | David Clarkson |
| Mikhail Grabovski | ||
| LEFT DEFENSE | RIGHT DEFENSE | |
| Marc Methot | Colin Miller | |
| Brayden McNabb | David Schlemko | |
| Alexei Emelin | Trevor van Riemsdyk | |
| Jason Garrison | Deryk Engelland | |
| Jon Merrill | Nate Schmidt | |
| Clayton Stoner | Shea Theodore | |
| Griffin Reinhart | Luca Sbisa | |
| Jake Bischoff | ||
| GOAL | ||
| Marc-Andre Fleury | ||
| Calvin Pickard | ||
| Jean-Francois Berube |
| PLAYER | POS | HT/WT | AGE | 2016-17 STATS | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reid Duke | C | 6-0/195 | 21 | Brandon (WHL) | 59 | 37 | 34 | 71 | 81 |
| Cody Eakin | C | 5-11/190 | 26 | Dallas (NHL) | 60 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 49 |
| Mikhail Grabovski | C | 5-10/185 | 33 | NY Islanders (NHL) - DNP Inj | |||||
| Erik Haula | C | 5-11/190 | 26 | Minnesota (NHL) | 72 | 15 | 11 | 26 | 28 |
| William Karlsson | C | 6-0/190 | 24 | Columbus (NHL) | 81 | 6 | 19 | 25 | 10 |
| Oscar Lindberg | C | 6-1/190 | 25 | NY Rangers (NHL) | 65 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 32 |
| Tomas Nosek | C | 6-2/210 | 25 | Grand Rapids (AHL) | 51 | 15 | 26 | 41 | 33 |
| Vadim Shipachyov | C | 6-0/190 | 30 | SKA St. Petersburg (KHL) | 50 | 26 | 50 | 76 | 22 |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare | LW | 6-0/195 | 32 | Philadelphia (NHL) | 82 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 20 |
| Connor Brickley | LW | 6-0/205 | 25 | Charlotte (AHL) | 69 | 15 | 11 | 26 | 57 |
| William Carrier | LW | 6-1/200 | 22 | Buffalo (NHL) | 41 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 |
| Nikita Gusev | LW | 5-9/165 | 25 | SKA St. Petersburg (KHL) | 57 | 24 | 47 | 71 | 8 |
| Brendan Leipsic | LW | 5-9/170 | 23 | Toronto (AHL) | 49 | 18 | 33 | 51 | 30 |
| Jonathan Marchessault | LW | 5-9/175 | 26 | Florida (NHL) | 75 | 30 | 21 | 51 | 38 |
| David Perron | LW | 6-0/195 | 29 | St. Louis (NHL) | 82 | 18 | 28 | 46 | 54 |
| David Clarkson | RW | 6-1/205 | 33 | Columbus (NHL) - DNP Inj | |||||
| Tomas Hyka | RW | 5-11/170 | 24 | Mlada Boleslav (Cze) | 48 | 17 | 21 | 38 | 18 |
| James Neal | RW | 6-2/210 | 30 | Nashville (NHL) | 70 | 23 | 18 | 41 | 35 |
| Teemu Pulkkinen | RW | 5-11/190 | 25 | Iowa (AHL) | 47 | 18 | 18 | 36 | 36 |
| Reilly Smith | RW | 6-0/185 | 26 | Florida (NHL) | 80 | 15 | 22 | 37 | 17 |
| Chris Thorburn | RW | 6-3/225 | 34 | Winnipeg (NHL) | 64 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 95 |
| Alex Tuch | RW | 6-4/220 | 21 | Iowa (AHL) | 57 | 18 | 19 | 37 | 28 |
| Jake Bischoff | D | 6-1/195 | 23 | Minnesota (B1G) | 38 | 5 | 27 | 32 | 16 |
| Alexei Emelin | D | 6-1/220 | 31 | Montreal (NHL) | 76 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 71 |
| Deryk Engelland | D | 6-2/205 | 35 | Calgary (NHL) | 81 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 85 |
| Jason Garrison | D | 6-1/220 | 32 | Tampa Bay (NHL) | 70 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 14 |
| Brayden McNabb | D | 6-4/205 | 26 | Los Angeles (NHL) | 49 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 54 |
| Jon Merrill | D | 6-3/210 | 25 | New Jersey (NHL) | 51 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 24 |
| Marc Methot | D | 6-3/225 | 32 | Ottawa (NHL) | 68 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Colin Miller | D | 6-0/195 | 24 | Boston (NHL) | 61 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 55 |
| Griffin Reinhart | D | 6-4/215 | 23 | Bakersfield (AHL) | 54 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 42 |
| Luca Sbisa | D | 6-2/205 | 27 | Vancouver (NHL) | 82 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 40 |
| David Schlemko | D | 6-1/195 | 30 | San Jose (NHL) | 62 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 14 |
| Nate Schmidt | D | 6-0/195 | 26 | Washington (NHL) | 60 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 16 |
| Clayton Stoner | D | 6-3/225 | 32 | Anaheim (NHL) | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 28 |
| Shea Theodore | D | 6-2/185 | 22 | Anaheim (NHL) | 34 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 28 |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk | D | 6-2/185 | 26 | Chicago (NHL) | 58 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29 |
| 2016-17 STATS | GP | W | L | GAA | SV% | ||||
| Jean-Francois Berube | G | 6-1/170 | 26 | NY Islanders (NHL) | 14 | 3 | 2 | 3.42 | 0.889 |
| Marc-Andre Fleury | G | 6-2/175 | 32 | Pittsburgh (NHL) | 38 | 18 | 10 | 3.02 | 0.909 |
| Calvin Pickard | G | 6-0/195 | 25 | Colorado (NHL) | 50 | 15 | 31 | 2.98 | 0.904 |