Quinn Preston – McKeen's Hockey

NCAA: Big Ten Conference Tournament Preview and Predictions

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 06 Mar 2020 15:46:41 +0000

The NCAA tournament is selected through a mathematical formula called the Pairwise. The top 16 seeds make it, but six seeds are reserved for the tournament winners from each DI conference. Once those six tournament berths are awarded, the remaining 10 slots are awarded to the teams in order of their Pairwise ranking.

ANN ARBOR, MI - JANUARY 31: Ohio State Buckeyes forward Matthew Jennings (19) moves the puck away from Michigan Wolverines forward Jimmy Lambert (23) during the Michigan Wolverines game versus the Ohio State Buckeyes on Friday January 31, 2020 at Yost Ice Arena Center in Ann Arbor, MI. (Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire)

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At the conclusion of a remarkably tight Big Ten schedule, the postseason is upon us. Inappropriately named, the Big Ten has but seven teams competing in Men’s Hockey (the talk of the University of Illinois making it eight has quieted down of late). Seven competitors requires some creativity in setting up a playoff, and the conference has risen to that challenge with a structure that gives the top seeded team a bye week while the runners-up play the basement dwellers, the three seed plays the six and the fourth and fifth seeded teams square off in best of three series in the home arenas of the higher ranked teams. Those short sets all take place this weekend, Friday, Saturday, and, as needed, on Sunday.

I mentioned above that the conference this year has played remarkably tight. Penn State come away as the regular season champions, but only one victory (three points) ahead of runners-up Ohio State. The same three-point gap between Penn State and Ohio State is the gap between OSU and sixth seed Michigan State. If Wisconsin could only keep the puck out of their own net once in a while – they surrendered 124 goals in 34 games, a full 30 goals more than the next most porous team – the parity in the conference could have been historic. Alas.

Before we get into the matchups, we should discuss another notable aspect of the Big Ten in 2019-20. I had written above about how Wisconsin couldn’t stop the puck and further how their inability in that domain was significantly worse than the rest. This is notable less due to Wisconsin’s own ineptitude in net, but due to the other six teams all featuring goaltenders who could be the objects of NHL teams’ attentions once their seasons are over. This is even more remarkable as only Minnesota has a drafted netminder (two, in fact). As for Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Michigan State, they all field starting goalies who were overlooked at the draft but are legitimate candidates to be offered Entry Level Contracts as undrafted free agents after this season or in the near future. As I write about each team in their first-round matchup, I will spend extra time introducing you to the goalies of record.

Regular Season Champ (First Round Bye): Penn State (20-10-4, 12-8-4-1 Big Ten)

The regular season champs play an exciting brand of high-event hockey. They scored 79 goals in conference play and 121 overall both marks that topped their peers. On the other hand, only Wisconsin allowed more than their 70 goals against in conference play. They took 64 shots on net more than the runners up and their shots allowed total was closer (albeit marginally) to the bottom than the top of the conference. They had the best power play, and the best penalty kill, although the latter unit got a ton of practice, as the Nittany Lions were among the most penalized teams in the conference.

One might think that a team like this is all offense, and they wouldn’t be half wrong. Penn State had six players reach the 25-point mark, with three scoring at a point-per-game clip. Those six top scorers were a savvy, veteran crew, which included the team’s top five scorers from last season (Nate Sucese, Evan Barratt, Alex Limoges, Liam Folkes, and Brandon Biro), joined by blueliner Cole Hults. Of that group, Barratt most has the look of a future NHLer, albeit unlikely to be more than a third liner. That said any of them could reasonably find their ways up the pro ranks.

In net, we have Peyton Jones, whose brother Nolan plays baseball in the Cleveland system. Peyton has near idea; size at 6-4” and over 200 pounds. He is impressively mobile for his size. The senior has been a workhorse throughout his collegiate career, with this year’s 30 starts (s0 far) being his fewest in a full season. He saved his best season for last though, improving his save percentage from barely over .900 to a lofty .919. Between his size, athleticism and ability to stop pucks, he should find his way to the AHL next season, likely on an NHL deal.

Drafted players: Kevin Wall (CAR), Clayton Phillips (PIT), Evan Barratt (CHI), Denis Smirnov (COL), Cole Hults (LA)

2 Ohio State (18-11-5, 11-9-4-1 Big Ten) vs 7 Wisconsin (14-18-2, 7-15-2-2 Big Ten)

Like Penn State, Ohio State can score with the best, but occasionally has had trouble keeping the puck out of their own net. In fact, in conference play, they have surrendered exactly as many goals as they have scored, 62 apiece. They tied for 2^nd in the conference on points with Michigan and Minnesota but win the tie breaker as they have more victories. If goal-differential was the tie breaker instead, the Buckeyes would have finished in fourth. The funny thing is, when they won the conference last year, their goals allowed metrics were practically the same as this year. The difference between 2018-19 and now is that they have scored significantly less this year.

Despite the presence of the gifted playmaker Tanner Laczynski and a rapidly improving Quinn Preston on the roster, among others, they have not made up for the graduation of top line current pros Mason Jobst and Dakota Joshua. In fact, there is a pretty big dropoff in production after OSU’s top four scorers – Laczynski, Preston, Carson Meyer, and Gustaf Westlund – and the rest of the roster. With two of those four graduating after the season, this may be the end of a window of contention for Ohio State that saw them make the tournament four years in a row, including one appearance in the Frozen Four, after not getting out of the conference for seven straight years.

Manning the crease for OSU is big Tommy Nappier. In the last two years as a full-time starter, his save percentage has been between .929-.934. He is tall and broad-shouldered. Some would consider him portly. (Some scouts have used less-polite terms). But he doesn’t just rely on his frame to block pucks. He plays an aggressive, athletic game. He challenges the shooters, can scramble back to the goal line in a pinch. His reactions are quick, and I would recommend slightly toning down the aggressiveness, as he can get caught out on occasion being too far from the goal mouth, but his track record is phenomenal. Nappier has been one of the better goalies in the NCAA over the last two years and I would be somewhat surprised if he isn’t offered an NHL contract in the next month or so.

Then we have Wisconsin. Rarely does a team with so much talent on the surface play so poorly. Among Big Ten schools, only Minnesota (14) has more than Wisconsin’s 12 drafted players. And none of the other schools have more than the Badgers three first rounders. And I am not even considering Dylan Holloway here, who is widely expected (including by us) to be a first round pick this June.

The Badgers can score with the best of teams in the NCAA. Their 110 goals are behind only Penn State in the conference and are tied for 13^th nationally. The problems is that despite icing a blueline which includes five drafted players, they cannot keep pucks out. Their total of 3.65 goals allowed per game ranks third last nationally. That is partially a function of giving up too many prime scoring chances, as they rank 51/60 in shots allowed per game. That also underscores how poorly they have done in stopping the shots that they have faced. Starting netminder Daniel Lebedeff has an ugly .894 save percentage, the worst among all netminders in NCAA who have played in at least 25 games. If I lower the threshold to 20 games, two others slip below. The Finnish sophomore was no better as a freshman, nor really in his pre-collegiate days. His feet are all over the place, he is too often not square to the shooters. He is the only starting netminder in the conference that I would unequivocally state has no professional future in North America.

Of course, I wouldn’t say that about some of the skaters in front of him. Cole Caufield has flashed the elite goal scoring prowess that made him a first rounder last year, although he has slowed down in the second half of the year. Fellow first rounder Alex Turcotte also shows flashes of greatness albeit not as consistently game to game as one would prefer. The third first rounder on the roster, K’Andre Miller has shown more of a nasty side this year, although not always well timed nastiness. He still has first pairing potential for the NHL, but seems to have regressed some this year. For me, the Badger who has improved the most this year has been blueliner Ty Emberson. Always a very strong physical defensive presence, he has shown a bit more willingness to get involved at the offensive end. Wisconsin can be a really fun, but extremely frustrating team to watch. Even though most of the Badgers’ high-end players are underclassmen, Wisconsin may be hard pressed to keep players like those mentioned in this paragraph on campus for another year, considering how this year has gone.

Ohio State drafted players: Carson Meyer (CBJ), Tanner Laczynski (PHI), Ryan O’Connell (TOR), Layton Ahac (VGK)

Wisconsin drafted players: Ty Emberson (ARI), Linus Weissbach (BUF), Max Zimmer (CAR), Josh Ess (CHI), Tyler Inamoto (FLA), Jack Gorniak (MON), K’Andre Miller (NYR), Wyatt Kalynuk (PHI), Owen Lindmark (FLA), Alex Turcotte (LA), Cole Caufield (MON), Ryder Donovan (VGK)

Prediction: Ohio State in three, with the final being a nail biter.

3 Michigan (16-14-4, 11-10-3-2 Big Ten) vs 6 Michigan State (15-17-2, 11-11-2-0 Big Ten)

The first year of the post-Quinn Hughes era in Michigan has been underwhelming, but altogether not bad. The team offense was middle of the pack nationally, down around one-third of a goal from 2018-19. Thankfully for the Wolverines, they have more than made up for the set back by hacking over a full goal per game off of their goals allowed. Their 2.12 mark ranks eighth nationally and tops among Big Ten schools. They actually play a fairly well controlled team game and tend to control the possession, generating shot totals near the national lead.

The main challenge is that Michigan struggles to turn those shots into goals. Senior Jake Slaker was the only skater with more than eight goals on the year, and he was also the only one with more than 21 points. The two heralded freshman from the USNTDP class of 2019, first rounders Cam York and John Beecher, had solid debuts, but neither really dominated. I expect both to take over the team next year, especially Beecher, whose physical tools are rarely seen, but they aren’t there just yet. Not helping things is the step back from team captain William Lockwood, whose point production was cut by one third compared to last season.

As discussed above, Michigan’s defense has been the key to the team staying in games all year. As promising as Cam York is, and as solid as the likes of Jack Summers, Keaton Pehrson, and Luke Martin are, the lynchpin to that defense stood between the pipes, as it so often has for Big Ten teams this year. For the Wolverines, the player generally between the pipes has been Strauss Mann, who has become s the workhorse this year after splitting time in the net as a freshman last year. Listed at only 6-0”, Mann was never looked at as a top prospect, but maybe he should have been. Prior to going to school, he spent a year with Fargo of the USHL. He put up a .932 save percentage and led the Force to a championship. This was not a team loaded with NHL caliber talent, either, with only one skater who appeared in the playoffs who had been, or would be, drafted. Mann wasn’t great as a freshman for the Wolverines, but sits on a .936 save percentage now, sixth in the nation. What he lacks in size, he makes up for with positioning, staying square to the shooter, a good glove hand, and strong lateral mobility. Another season like this one and NHL teams will be more willing to overlook his stature.

Michigan State are a long way removed from their 2007 championship, but this season, as mediocre as it has seemed on the surface, was a big step in the right direction. Their 15 victories are their top mark since 2014-15. The Spartans still lack the offensive firepower to truly be a national contender, and their goals per game mark of 2.35 was only 48^th nationally and worst in the Big Ten. The team has two drafted forwards, but they combined for only nine points on the season – equal to the contributions of the team’s two drafted defensemen.

Clearly, Michigan State lacks in high end NHL talent, but there are a few players here who have earned the attention of NHL scouts. Big center Patrick Khodorenko, a senior, was not drafted out of the USNTDP, but has been at or close to a point per game since his sophomore season. His skating is a bit on the rough side, but his hockey IQ, great hands and sheer presence, should earn him an ELC. And still only 21 years old, he is quite young for a college senior. Big blueliner Jerad Rosburg, the son of an NFL coach, plays with a football mentality, as a physical and imposing stopper. The senior also is proving capable with the puck. Winger Mitch Lewandowski and defender Dennis Cesana still have eligibility after this year and lack the size of Khodorenko or Rosburg, but they have ensured that MSU should not be taken lightly.

Those four aside, the key to Michigan State’s hopes of winning the Big Ten for the first time and getting back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2012, rest in the form of another senior in netminder John Lethemon. After a rough freshman season, Lethemon was OK for the Spartans as a sophomore and as a junior, with .903 and .905 save percentages, respectively. Which is to say that he .937 mark this year was somewhat unexpected. He is a 6-3” butterfly netminder with a good glove and a conservative style that keeps him in the paint. He is very calm and tries to minimize the room an opponent has to shoot. He can scramble if needed, but his success has been a function of being ready for the first shot.

Michigan drafted players: Jack Becker (BOS), Luke Martin (CAR), Nick Pastujov (NYI), William Lockwood (VAN), John Beecher (BOS), Eric Ciccolini (NYR), Cam York (PHI)

Michigan State drafted players: Mitchell Mattson (CGY), Cole Krygier (FLA), Christian Krygier (NYI), Josh Nodler (CGY)

Prediction: Michigan State with the upset in three games. No more than five goals in any one game.

4 Minnesota (14-13-7, 9-8-7-4 Big Ten) vs 5 Notre Dame (14-13-7, 9-9-6-4 Big Ten)

Finally, we have our matchup of the mediocre. With all due respect to the two stories programs of Minnesota and Notre Dame – the former is a five time champion and the latter has reached the Frozen Four four times since 2008 – 2019-20 has simply not been their year for either school. In fact, neither school is likely to make the NCAA tournament barring a lengthy run in the Big Ten tournament. In Big Ten, Minnesota was the slightest bit better, as both teams won nine conference games, but Notre Dame has one extra loss while the Golden Gophers have an extra win. Minnesota scored four more times than they allowed while Notre Dame was dead even. Stepping outside of conference play, the two teams were even tighter, with identical 14-13-7 records, with goal differentials within two goals of one another. Even in head-to-head play, they were evenly matched up. Each team won once, and tied twice. The biggest differences in the teams are that Minnesota attempts fewer shots, but counters that with a better penalty kill and a better propensity for drawing penalties.

While they do a poorer job of controlling possession, I would say that Minnesota has better talent up and down its lineup, and not just because they have way more drafted players to draw from. The Golden Gophers get relatively little offense from their blueliners, but have a few talented forwards who can dazzle if not as consistently as one might wish. Samuel Walker is an undersized dynamo, with great speed and playmaking chops. Sampo Ranta, when he is at his best, is a very dangerous scoring threat, assertive and possessing a great wrist shot. I should also mention Brannon McManus and Blake McLaughlin, former teammates with the Chicago Steel, who have been strong secondary sources of offense this year.

Notre Dame’s offense is more evenly distributed, partially out of necessity as they lack any real dynamic threats, Senior Cam Morrison was the team’s leading scorer. Even though he has not lived up to his promise as a second round pick, he has a knack for winning puck battles and a quick shot. Undrafted Alex Steeves has been more impressive, nearly tripling his freshman year production thanks to his puck skills and strong shot, which help him overcome his skating limitations (he isn’t a bad skater, but that is what kept him from being drafted). Notre Dame does have the upper hand when it comes to offensive contributions from the blueline, with both Matthew Hellickson and Spencer Stastney strong puck movers. The former as a passer and the latter with his legs.

But we really just want to talk about goalies, don’t we? Minnesota not only has the only drafted goalie in the conference, they have the only two drafted goalies in the Big Ten. Jack Lafontaine and Jared Moe split the crease relatively evenly this year and both had equal .915 save percentages, although Moe’s GAA was approximately 0.25 lower. LaFontaine is the more experienced netminder and in my views he has been the steadier of the two. I would imagine he will get the first game and Minnesota will play the hot hand as they can. Ironically, even as the only two drafted netminders in the conference, I would out five others from within the conference ahead of them in terms of pro potential at this point in their respective careers.

One of those five is Notre Dame’s fourth year starter, Cale Morris. While he dealt with some injuries this year, and his .917 save percentage is his worst mark since his one game freshman campaign, scouts I have spoken with still unanimously mention him as a good goalie, one who they were surprised returned to Notre Dame for his senior season. He was already named the Mike Richter Award winner in his sophomore season, his first as a starter, considering his amazing .944 save percentage. He may be on the smaller side at 6-1”, but his has plus mobility, anticipates the play well and has a quick glove. He will be in demand once his season ends.

Minnesota drafted players: Ben Brinkman (DAL), Blake McLaughlin (ANA), Sampo Ranta (COL), Robbie Stucker (CLB), Tyler Nanne (NYR), Scott Reedy (SJ), Samuel Walker (TB), Ryan Zuhlsdorf (TB), Jack Perbix (ANA), Jackson Lacombe (ANA), Ryan Johnson (BUF), Jack LaFontaine (CAR), Bryce Brodzinski (PHI), Jared Moe (WIN)

Notre Dame drafted players: Nathan Clurman (COL), Nicky Leivermann (COL), Cameron Morrison (COL), Jacob Pivonka (NYI), Spencer Stastney (NAS), Matthew Hellickson (NJ), Trevor Janicke (ANA)

Prediction – Notre Dame in a road sweep. Low scoring games both.

Predicting the rest of the tournament

After the opening round, the teams are re-seeded with single game elimination deciding things the rest of the way. If the predictions above play out, we will see the following:

1 Penn State vs 6 Michigan State

2 Ohio State vs 5 Notre Dame

Call me crazy, but I like Michigan State in front of John Lethemon over Peyton Jones and Penn State in an upset. The teams each went 2-2 in head-to-head matchups during the season. I think Khodorenko and Lewandowski can crack the often porous Penn State defense

Ohio State takes down Notre Dame in the other contest, although, again, the two teams are pretty evenly matched.

Finally, I will go with Ohio State winning the tournament over Michigan State because Cinderalla doesn’t always go all the way

USHL Playoff Preview: New format, wild results

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 20 Apr 2018 20:21:45 +0000

Looking to add more drama to its postseason, this season is the first in which the USHL has extended the playoffs through the addition of a best-of-three wildcard round, adding two teams to the festivities from each conference. Whereas the league had previously included only the top four from each conference in the playoffs, this year, the fifth and sixth teams received an extra chance as well.

The new setup sees the top two teams from each conference receive a bye week while the third through sixth teams played up to three games in three nights, all at the home arena of the higher ranked squad.

Perhaps in opposition to expectations, the wild card round saw three upsets in its four series. In the Eastern conference, third seed Muskegon fell in three games to sixth seed and defending champions, Chicago, a series capped by a game three overtime winner. Meanwhile, the fifth seed, Dubuque, won the first two games in Green Bay, negating the need for a winner-take-all finale.

In the Western Conference, third seed Fargo eliminated sixth seed Tri-City in short order, winning their two games by a combined score of 8-1. Fourth seed Sioux Falls feel to fifth seed Lincoln in three games. Like with the Muskegon-Chicago series, the home team won the first game, before dropping the next two, with the finale going to overtime.

The Conference semifinals begin tonight (Friday, April 20, 2018) with Youngstown hosting Dubuque, with the other three series beginning tomorrow evening.

Eastern Conference

Team USA (1) vs Chicago Steel (6)

This matchup may not be the mismatch the seeds suggest that it is. During the regular season, Team USA’s league games are effectively split between the USNTDP U17 and U18 squads. This arrangement was great for development, but usually pretty bad for the standings. Since rejoining the USHL in 2009-10, the USNTDP split team has only reached the postseason twice, and not since the 2011—12 season. Of the players who led this team during the regular season. Most of the top contributors will be unavailable for the postseason, as the bulk of the U18 squad, and some of the better U17 players, are currently in Russia representing flag and country at the World Under 18 Championships.

The leftover players are still very talented on the whole, but lacking in high impact. The players most likely to push the USNTDP onward are 2019 draft prospects Ryder Rolston, Matthew Boldy, and Trevor Zegras up front, and Henry Thrun from the blueline. All three forwards were point per game players in the regular season and are potential high end prospects for next year.

Jack Dugan, photo by Hickling Images.

The Steel are led by one of the top drafted prospects in the league in Jack Dugan, a Vegas pick and one of the best non USNTDP draft prospects for this year in Blake McLaughlin. The two made up two-thirds of a great top line over the first half of the season, but were split up around mid-season after a coach firing reminiscent of what took place in Flint of the OHL last year. They also have a very promising 2019 prospect of their own in Robert Mastrosimone. Steel games have been high event games this year. Only the USNTDP has scored more and no other playoff team (including the ousted wild-card entrants) have surrendered more. That said, if they stick with Finnish import Oskar Autio in net, they have a very good chance of getting to the conference finals.

Blake McLaughlin.

Draft eligible players to watch: For Chicago, pay attention to Blake McLaughlin. After exploding in the first half of the season, his production slowed measurably in the second half, but he scored twice in the wild card round. He is a dark horse pick in the late first round or early second round. For the US squad, Erik Middendorf is one of a select few who were not taken to Russia for the WU18 tournament. He is a decent two-way player who can skate. The Colorado College commit could be taken in the seventh round if he shows some offensive punch here.

Prediction: As they played Autio throughout the wild card round, I expect the status quo to remain for the best of five here. Chicago in five.

Youngstown Phantoms (2) vs Dubuque Fighting Saints (5)

Representing Exhibit A in why the Western Conference was the stronger one this year, both combatants here surrendered more goals than they scored this year, not something you would expect from a playoff team, much less the second seed from the East. Both teams have veteran rosters, with Dubuque bringing more size, although Youngstown plays a rougher game. The Phantoms somewhat make up for the time they spend in the penalty box by having a fairly strong penalty kill. Dubuque has been much more mediocre when it comes to special teams this year.

Alex Steeves

The Fighting Saints could have been much stronger this year, as their rosters includes three players drafted by NHL teams in Casey Staum (Mtl), Cole Guttman (TB) and Santeri Virtanen (Wpg). Unfortunately, injuries have meant that Dubuque has spent the majority of the season without any of the three and are not expected to have those players now either. Their offensive attack will be spearheaded by forwards Quinn Preston and Alex Steeves, the latter of whom is draft eligible. Joshua Maniscalco, a former USNTDP member, has been very productive from the blueline as well. Their goaltending looks to be a weakspot, despite Cole Weaver’s great work in shutting down Green Bay in the Wild Card round.

The Phantoms have more offensive weapons at their disposal, including Matthew Berry, Chase Gresock, and Michael Regush. They lack much offensive punch from their defensive corps, although midseason acquisition Michael Callahan has provided solid puck movement. The teams’ biggest strength, however comes from their stoppers. They likely expected to have Chicago draft pick Wouter Peeters claim the starters job this year – and he has been pretty good - but Russian import Ivan Prosvetov has been even better. No matter which netminder they choose for the playoffs, they will have a clear edge over Dubuque in the crease.

Curtis Hall. Photo by Hickling Images/courtesy of the USHL.

Draft eligible players to watch: From Dubuque, it can only be Alexander Steeves. The Notre Dame commit has a big engine and real offensive juice. The team’s leading scorer (seventh league-wide) always wants the puck on his stick and knows what to do when he gets it. From Youngstown, the pre-season pick would have been Curtis Hall, but he has shown that his lack of puck skill severely limits his upside. My personal favorite here is the goalie Prosvetov, who can absolutely dominate at his best. But he may not get the nod as Peeters is also very good. So I will pick Michael Callahan. He is not an exciting prospect, but the Providence commit does a lot of things quietly well.

Prediction: Youngstown in four. Between the top notch goaltending and the more diverse offensive attack, they will be tough to beat, especially under the assumption that Dubuque continues to play shorthanded.

Western Conference

Waterloo Black Hawks (1) vs Lincoln Stars (5)

The Waterloo-Lincoln series should be closer than the two teams’ relative place in the USHL standings would suggest. They both scored a hair under 200 goals on the season, although Waterloo has a team-level GAA of around 0.25 better. A factor that should play a role here is special teams play. Both teams are strong on the penalty kill, with Lincoln’s 84.7% kill rate coming second in the USHL. Waterloo, at 83.8% was not far behind. On the power play, however, the Black Hawks more than make up for the shortcoming when down a man. They had the league’s second best man advantage, scoring 23.6% of the time. Lincoln could only convert on 15.6% of their power plays.

That Waterloo power play was a result of some strong offensive talent. Draft eligible Jack Drury is by far the league’s top power play producer with 12 goals and 22 assists coming on the man advantage. The team captain sees the ice well and knows how to take advantage of the extra space a power play brings. Speedy Ben Copeland, veteran Jackson Cates and midseason addition Benjamin Finkelstein (Fla) make them hard to stop.

The goalie battle is also strong here. Both teams feature drafted goalies, on the roster with Matej Tomek (Phi) playing for Waterloo and Tomas Vomacka (Nsh) for Lincoln, but there is no guarantee that either of the latter get the nod. In the wild-card round, the Stars went with normal backup Derek Schaedig, after a rough outing in game one by Vomacka. The Black Hawks also have Jared Moe, one of the better draft eligible goalies in the league pushing Tomek for playing time.

Paul Cotter

Draft Eligible Players to Watch: From Waterloo, pay attention to Drury. His offensive output has been fantastic and has the requisite hockey IQ expected from a legacy player (Son of Ted Drury) and Harvard commit. The question hanging over his prospect value is whether he can produce enough at even strength. From Lincoln, keep an eye on Paul Cotter, who scored the overtime winner in game 3 of the wild card round. He is a good skater with a nice shot and outstanding questions about his upside.

Prediction: Waterloo in four. Lincoln is the most penalized team in the league, with a gap of 129 minutes between them and the runners-up. That will really hurt them as the Black Hawks can take advantage, and will take advantage, over and over again, presuming Lincoln continues to play their brand of hockey.

Omaha Lancers (2) vs Fargo Force (3)

This series promises to be the exact inverse of the above-discussed matchup of Team USA and the Chicago Steel. While the other series should be full of end-to-end rushes, and blaring goal sirens, Omaha vs Fargo is a matchup of the two stingiest teams in the league. Fargo surrendered 133 goals on the season, while Omaha allowed only 143. Both teams enter hot, with Fargo having won five in a row and nine of ten, while Omaha is riding an eight game winning streak.

The goaltending on both sides is stellar. The expected starter for Omaha, Zach Driscoll, finished second in the league with a .934 save percentage. Fargo’s Strauss Mann came in third, at .932. Should, for any reason, either team need to turn to its backup, Fargo’s Ryan Bischel came in fifth in save percentage and Omaha’s Vincent Purpura finished eighth. Omaha’s offensive attack is led by undersized Czech veteran Filip Suchy, who came in second in league scoring with 69 points. Noah Cates (Phi) and Cole Gallant also both finished with over 50 points. Cates, in particular, is a talented player of the puck. Fargo only had one 50 point scoring in Grant Hebert, but Danish import Jacob Schmidt-Svejstrup would have also reached that plateau were it not for time missed for the WJC and a subsequent injury. Fargo also has a number of defensemen who can contribute to the attack, including Ty Farmer, Spencer Meir, and Robbie Stucker (Clb).

Both teams are good on the PK, sharing identical 83.5% kill rate. On the power play, we see some separation. Omaha was very good this year, scoring on 19% of their man up opportunities. Fargo, on the other hand, put everyone to shame, with a USHL high 24.5% power play success rate. Neither team is overly penalty prone, though, so this element may be diminished in significance during this series.

Draft Eligible Players to Watch: Fargo has an older roster on the whole, without any first time eligible players of note. That said, 20 year old Danish winger Schmidt-Svejstrup turned a lot of heads with his goal scoring exploits at the beginning of the season. He lacks pace and likes to fly the zone early, but he knows how to get himself into scoring position. He finished the season with 26 goals in 40 games. On Omaha, Ryan Savage had the most pre-season hype, but has been largely disappointing. Defenseman Travis Mitchell plays a muscular, disruptive style on the blueline, and could be a late round pick, but the real player to watch is left winger Jack Randl. The Michigan commit has promising offensive touch and will be relied upon in the second wave of attack for the Lancers.

Prediction: This is the closest matchup of the round. Omaha wins in five, thanks to better offensive depth. Lots of close, one goal (or two, with the latter being an empty netter) decisions.

Should the first round proper prediction play out, the Conference finals will pit Waterloo against Omaha in the West and Youngstown against Chicago in the East. In that scenario, I see Omaha shutting down Waterloo and Youngstown outscoring Chicago to set up a Clark Cup matchup between Omaha and Youngstown. In this battle of second seeds, Omaha proves the old adage that “defense wins championships” and brings home their eighth Clark Cup championship, and their first since 2007-08.