Radko Gudas – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – ANAHEIM DUCKS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Mon, 06 Oct 2025 17:20:41 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 24: Anaheim Ducks Defenceman Jackson LaCombe (60) warms up before a game between the Anaheim Ducks and the Los Angeles Kings on February 24, 2024 at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire)

It was an unexpected rise out of the depths of the Pacific Division last season as they improved to 80 points in 2024-2025 up from 59 in 2023-2024. Their overall improvement got them into the race for the wild card for the first time in years, yet ultimately still led to the dismissal of coach Greg Cronin. Now with the controversial hiring of Joel Quenneville behind the bench, expectations are much higher. If they’re going to be serious about making the playoffs, their special teams must improve. The Ducks had the league’s worst power play (11.8 percent) and the 29th ranked penalty kill (74.2 percent), but with the talent they have that can change quickly.

What’s Changed?

Despite the improvements, there’s a lot of change in Anaheim. Along with Quenneville taking over as coach, years of trade rumours finally proved out with goalie John Gibson going to Detroit for Petr Mrazek and forward Trevor Zegras off to Philadelphia for Ryan Poehling. The Ducks also added veteran forward Chris Kreider from the New York Rangers for prospect Carey Terrance and signed free agent Mikael Granlund to a three-year, $21 million contract. That kind of infusion of veteran talent signals the rebuild is officially over in Anaheim and that reaching the postseason is the goal.

What Would Success Look Like?

The Ducks haven’t been to the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2018 and after picking in the top 10 of the NHL Draft for the past few years, drafting and developing young talent, reaching the postseason, or at the very least being in the hunt until the end of the season, is the goal. The Western Conference is difficult, but there are inroads to be made. While Anaheim’s forward group was made to be more battle-tested and experienced, their defence is highly talented but still young. If the growth seen from Jackson LaCombe, Olen Zellweger, Pavel Mintyukov, and Drew Helleson continue and goalie Lukas Dostal picks up where he left off last season, they can be one of the more entertaining and frustrating teams to play against.

What Could Go Wrong?

The catch with adding veteran players is that sometimes they’re closer to the end of the road than they’re perceived to be. If Kreider’s downturn in production last season was a signal and not a blip and Granlund can’t have the same success he had with San Jose and Dallas, it’ll make things a lot more difficult up front. Their young defence corps and goaltender are going to have a lot of pressure on them right away and if the weight of expectations is too heavy, that could send the Ducks back to the lottery yet again.

Top Breakout Candidate

Cutter Gauthier’s rookie season saw him put up 20 goals and 24 assists and that was enough to put him on the NHL All-Rookie Team. You could say that it's a breakout on its own, but when you’re taken with the fifth pick in the 2022 draft, expectations are set a fair bit higher, especially after being acquired in a trade. With a full season under his belt, Gauthier getting to learn some tricks of the trade from Kreider and having the green light to go from the new coaching staff, that could lead to a monster season and more reasons for Flyers fans to grump about losing him.

FORWARDS

Troy Terry

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	19	31	50	0.64

A consistent performer who has recorded more than 20 goals and 50 points in each of the past four seasons, Terry erupted for 37 goals in 2021-2022, but that appears to have been an aberration because he scored on 19.2 percent of his shots that season and more typically hovers in the 11-12 percent range. Terry plays a solid two-way game, though he is more effective offensively, and his reliability makes him valuable on a team with promising young talent still trying to find its way. Last season, Terry’s most common linemates were Ryan Strome and Frank Vatrano, so that is obviously a veteran trio, but Terry has the skill to play on Anaheim’s top line and it’s getting to the point that he could be alongside their younger forwards. Terry is a competitive enough player but does not play a physical game. In the past four seasons, he has recorded a total of 42 hits, which is a shockingly low total, ranking 245th out of 246 forwards to appear in at least 250 games over that span. One of Terry’s strongest traits is his confidence with the puck which allows him to make creative plays to generate scoring chances, particularly when controlling play in the offensive zone. There is potential for Terry to break through offensively, but the most reasonable expectation would be for 20-plus goals and 55-60 points.

Mason McTavish

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	26	38	64	0.78

After hitting career highs with 22 goals and 52 points in 2024-2025, McTavish is a promising young player who can be a leader in Anaheim’s attack. He was the third pick in the 2021 Draft and is a physically strong player who can win board battles and create space in the offensive zone. He has a strong skating stride that helps him move through the neutral zone in transition. McTavish is still early in his career and like many of his young teammates has room to improve without the puck. Even though the Ducks outscored opponents 52-43 during five-on-five play with McTavish on the ice last season, a lot of that was due to favorable percentages – an 11.1 percent on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage of .924 – because the Ducks only controlled 45.3 percent of shot attempts and 45.9 percent of expected goals with McTavish on the ice. His most common linemates last season were Cutter Gauthier and Robby Fabbri but, as the Ducks roster improves, there could be a chance for McTavish to get a bit of an upgrade on the wings. He also plays on the power play, where he can launch one-timers from the right face-off circle. All of this is to suggest that McTavish should continue his offensive development in 2025-2026 and should be expected to surpass 20 goals and 50 points but he is in the age bracket in which he could have a breakout season and take those totals to a new level.

Leo Carlsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	24	37	61	0.77

A two-way center with great potential, Carlsson was the second pick in the 2023 Draft and has made steady progress in his first two seasons. He elevated his play in the second half of last season, putting up 29 points (11 G, 18 A) in his last 31 games. He is still young, and his game is evolving, but Carlsson’s size, strong skating, and quality defensive play give him a strong foundation upon which to build his game and if he can become a point-per-game player at some point, then he will be an extremely valuable player. His soft hands and growing confidence should make Carlsson the focal point of the Ducks attack but, this early in his career, he has room to improve. For instance, he has won 38.5 percent of his faceoffs through his first two seasons and while that improved from 34.8 percent as a rookie to 41.4 percent last season, he needs to be much more effective on the dot. That improvement should come, however. Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier started to find their footing alongside Alex Killorn last season and progress should continue in 2025-2026. Carlsson should be expected to score 20-plus goals and 50 points but, like Gauthier, it’s possible that Carlsson breaks through for even more in his third NHL season.

Chris Kreider

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	19	17	36	0.47

Following the three most productive goal-scoring campaigns of his career, Kreider’s production fell off in 2024-2025. He still scored more than 20 goals for the seventh straight season and 10th time in his career, but he also did not record an assist until his 22nd game of the season and finished with just eight helpers. Kreider missed 14 games, and his ice time was down to 16:45 per game, his lowest since 2017-2018. While there had been rumours that the Rangers were looking to move Kreider last summer, they were certainly ready to move on from him this offseason, and he was a decent buy-low option for Anaheim. Even if his production slipped last season, and he was a poor puck possession player for essentially the first time in his career, Kreider is still a big strong winger who can skate and use his body as an effective net-front presence on the power play. Fantasy managers will note that Kreider managed 79 hits last season, his lowest since recording 36 hits in 23 games when he first joined the Rangers in 2012-2013. It’s not unreasonable to believe that Kreider can deliver more than he did last season in New York, but he’s also a 34-year-old winger who has played a physical game throughout his career, so there is a ceiling to what should be expected of him. He could score 25 goals and 45 points, which would be a valuable contribution to a Ducks squad that is hoping to be more competitive this season.

Mikael Granlund

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	17	39	56	0.74

Although Granlund’s underlying numbers were nothing to write home about in a 2024-2025 season that he split between the San Jose Sharks and Dallas Stars, he also finished the season with 66 points (22 G, 44 A), his highest total since 2017-2018. Last season was decidedly different for Granlund based on which team he was skating with. When he was on the Sharks, he played more than 20 minutes per game and was a top line point producer and first unit power play fixture. After his trade to Dallas, Granlund was still a contributor, but his ice time dropped by more than three minutes per game and he was not a prime power play threat. With Anaheim, Granlund should have the opportunity to again play a significant role, and he has the ability to play center and wing, which will give the Ducks some flexibility when it comes to setting their lines. Granlund’s defensive play is not his strong suit but with the puck on his stick he is a creative player with excellent vision and that should allow him to facilitate offense for his linemates. With the expectation that Granlund is not likely to play as much in Anaheim as he did in San Jose last season, it is probably more reasonable to expect 50-55 points from the veteran forward.

Cutter Gauthier

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	33	27	60	0.73

It took some time for Gauthier to get going in his rookie season, not finding the net until his 16th game, but he turned into a bona fide threat down the stretch, tallying 22 points (11 G, 11 A) with 77 shots on goal in 28 games after the Four Nations Face-Off break. He finished with 15 goals during 5-on-5 play to lead the Ducks. Gauthier has good size, which he uses to effectively protect the puck, and he is excellent in transition, with a strong stride and quick release when bursting down the left wing. In his first season, Gauthier’s most common linemates were Mason McTavish and Robby Fabbri, but he found more success skating with Leo Carlsson and Alex Killorn. For all of his promise Gauthier is still a young player and there is naturally room for him to improve as he grows into the pro game. He can be more consistent without the puck, and it’s possible – maybe even expected – that he will have a more significant role on the power play in his second season. He should play more than the 14:09 per game that he did as a rookie and that would provide him with the opportunity to generate more offense, so 25 goals and 50 points in a fair starting point, but he does have potential to score more than that.

Frank Vatrano

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	19	37	0.45

A veteran winger who has been a consistent shot generator throughout his career, Vatrano busted out for a career-high 37 goals during the 2023-2024 season and has recorded more than 18 goals in six of his past seven seasons. He has a quick release and is both quick and efficient at putting shots on goal from a variety of spots. The sturdy skater recorded a career-high 169 hits last season and has played a more prominent role in Anaheim compared to previous stops with the New York Rangers, Florida Panthers, and Boston Bruins. Although he has proven to be a solid complementary scorer, the unfortunate part is that Vatrano is not very effective defensively and the Ducks have been outscored 179-131 during five-on-five play across the past three seasons with Vatrano on the ice. Vatrano plays primarily with Ryan Strome and Troy Terry, a veteran trio on this young squad. Despite his flaws, considering his prominent role, Vatrano does hold appeal for fantasy managers because his combination of goal-scoring, shot generation, and hits tends to make him relatively useful. His power play role was reduced last season, and it seems likely that he will remain in a secondary offensive role on this team, but he should be able to produce at least 20 goals and 45 points during the 2025-2026 season.

Ryan Strome

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	8	27	35	0.46

Having just completed his third straight 41-point season, Strome also scored just 10 goals, his fewest since the 2015-2016 season. He plays center but can slide to right wing if need be, and his experience and talent allow him to move up and down the lineup depending on what the Ducks need. Like many Ducks, he could stand to improve his defensive play, but after three seasons in Anaheim, during which they have been outscored 174-133 during five-on-five play with Strome on the ice, that is not the most likely scenario. He also struggled on the power play, so the value proposition for the Ducks may be to improve their team depth so that they don’t need to lean on Strome quite so much. He took more than 1,200 faceoffs last season, winning just 41.7 percent, which is a shockingly poor percentage for someone who takes that many draws. There were 53 players who took at least 1,000 draws last season and Strome ranked 52nd in faceoff winning percentage. That should be at least part of the reason that he might spend more time on the wing, depending on who else is available to fill those minutes down the middle of the ice. Considering that he has landed on exactly 41 points for three consecutive seasons, that’s a pretty fair expectation for Strome’s production in the 2025-2026 season.

Alex Killorn

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	22	40	0.49

A consistent and hard-working veteran winger, Killorn has been a strong secondary scorer for a long time, first in Tampa Bay and now Anaheim, but last season’s 37 points in 82 games represented the second lowest points per game rate (0.45) of his career. That is not to say that Killorn’s game has dramatically dropped off, because it hasn’t, but he was 35 years old last season and anyone whose age climbs beyond that is obviously getting closer to the end of their career. Nevertheless, Killorn was the only Ducks forward to finish above 50 percent in terms of Corsi and expected goals and his steady two-way play was undeniably helpful to a team still trying to find its way. Killorn remains an excellent penalty killer and ranked second among Ducks forwards in time on ice during four-on-five situations. While he ranked sixth among Ducks forwards in five-on-four ice time, Killorn was not nearly as effective with the man advantage. Among 10 Ducks players to play at least 100 minutes at five-on-four, Killorn ranked last in on-ice expected goals per 60 minutes and ninth in on-ice goals for per 60 minutes. It would come as no surprise if Ducks newcomers like Chris Kreider or Mikael Granlund see more power play time and that aspect of the game gets reduced for Killorn. Even so, given his consistency and ability to drive play, there is a path to Killorn putting up close to 20 goals and 40 points in 2025-2026.

DEFENSE

Jackson LaCombe

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	12	33	45	0.56

One of last season’s breakout stars, LaCombe was a second-round pick in 2019, and he turned into a No. 1 defenceman in his second NHL season. Lacombe shows outstanding poise with the puck, both retrieving it in the defensive zone and running the point on the Ducks’ power play. It’s not like LaCombe was gifted a prominent role on the Anaheim blueline last season, so it took some time before he hit his stride. From December 1 through April 1, however, LaCombe contributed 39 points (12 G, 27 A) in 51 games before going scoreless in his last eight games of the season. He is excellent at getting pucks on net from the point, especially on the power play. Out of 55 defencemen that played at least 100 five-on-four minutes, LaCombe ranked sixth with 11.11 shots on goal per 60 minutes. LaCombe’s emergence ought to ease the pressure on the other young defenders in Anaheim because his production already makes him a worthy No. 1 option on the blueline and the rest can continue to develop without feeling that pressure. From LaCombe’s perspective, it will be up to him to prove that his breakthrough season wasn’t a fluke, that he is capable of playing big minutes and generating offense for an improving Ducks squad. It may be optimistic to expect LaCombe to score on more than 10 percent of his shots again, but he should at least be able to put up 40 points and, like many of his young teammates, there is certainly a chance that he goes above and beyond.

Olen Zellweger

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	9	19	28	0.36

An undersized puck-moving blueliner, Zellweger established his place as an NHL regular last season and while there is naturally room for improvement, he showed plenty of potential in his age 21 season. Zellweger has excellent agility which serves him well in the offensive zone, allowing him to move along the blueline and generate offensive opportunities. He has been wildly productive in previous stops. In his last two WHL seasons, he put up 158 points (46 G, 112 A) in 110 games, capped off by 29 points (11 G, 18 A) in 14 playoff games during his final season. He then contributed 37 points (12 G, 25 A) in 44 games as an AHL rookie in 2023-2024. While Zellweger has delivered just 29 points in 88 NHL games thus far, his pedigree is such that he has untapped offensive potential, and it is going to be dependent on his role and the quality of the team around him to determine if he is going to be an offensive threat at this level. He did lead Ducks defenders in shot attempts per 60 minutes and shots on goal per 60 minutes last season, so he’s not afraid to send pucks to the opposing net. While he does have potential to turn into a strong point producer, Zellweger is still quite young and more likely to fill a supporting role on the Ducks blueline, so he may contribute 25-30 points next season and like many Ducks, he is young enough that there is potential for more under the right circumstances. His name has popped up in trade rumours this summer, so that could affect his deployment if he lands with a new team.

Jacob Trouba

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	3	16	19	0.25

After spending much of last summer shopping Trouba around the league and practically blaming him for the Rangers getting ousted from the 2024 playoffs, only to have Trouba exercise his no-move clause, the Rangers finally got what they wanted when they traded Trouba to Anaheim in December. He did not thrive under those circumstances, and it’s fair to wonder if a hard-hitting defenceman like Trouba was maybe a little less invested in playing for a team with little hope of making the playoffs. He ended up averaging a career-low 20:31 of ice time per game and did record a career-high 208 blocked shots, though his 164 hits in 77 games counted as his lowest hits-per-game average since 2018-2019, his last season in Winnipeg. It’s also fair to wonder if Trouba’s physical style of play is starting to take its toll, as his possession numbers have slipped in the past two seasons and now that he’s 31, it could be more difficult for him to get back on top of those numbers. At his best, Trouba is a solid puck mover who is one of the most feared hitters in the league. He’s a legitimately punishing physical presence and should have a better impact with the Ducks likely to be an improved team this season. He may contribute 25-30 points but will add hits, blocked shots, and penalty minutes that should make him notably more valuable in banger-style leagues.

Radko Gudas

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	1	13	14	0.18

The Ducks’ captain is a thundering hitter who has spent his entire career walking a fine line between what is and isn’t suspendable when it comes to hits. Part of the equation is that he just has such a high volume of hits that he has more opportunity to deliver objectionable checks. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Gudas has recorded 1,160 hits, tops in the NHL. That is 67 hits ahead of Luke Schenn and Schenn is the only other defenceman within 175 hits of Gudas’ total. Having acknowledged his questionable hitting history, it should be noted, loudly, that Gudas is a very effective player and his borderline hitting practices should not take away from that legitimate on-ice success. Across his past seven seasons, with four different franchises, Gudas has been on the ice for 41 more goals for than against during five-on-five play, which is remarkable for a defender who does not generate a lot of offense and tends to start more of his shifts in the defensive zone. Gudas played a career-high 19:52 per game last season and that’s probably around the high end of how much he should play. A quirk to his game is that Gudas is also uninhibited when it comes to launching shots from the blueline. There are 184 defencemen that have played at least 2,000 five-on-five minutes across the past three seasons and Gudas ranks 47th with 11.75 shot attempts per 60 minutes over that span, just behind Mikhail Sergachev and ahead of the likes of Devon Toews, Luke Hughes, and Jake Sanderson. Despite his eagerness to shoot the puck, Gudas should only be expected to contribute 15-20 points, but he should also put up 250-plus hits 150-plus blocked shots and more than 80 penalty minutes, so he doesn’t help offensively, but the peripheral categories are where he shines for fantasy managers.

GOAL

Lukas Dostal

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
53	26	19	6	3	.905	2.78

For the first time since 2013, the Anaheim Ducks will start their season without John Gibson factoring into their goaltending plans for the upcoming year. It feels like a breath of fresh air for both parties, but perhaps for none more than for newly minted star starter Lukas Dostal. The Czech-born goaltender has officially been given Anaheim's vote of confidence this summer, as they brought in a veteran backup in Petr Mrazek and a reclamation project in Ville Husso as the only really challengers to his gig heading into the 2025-26 campaign.

The move doesn't come unwarranted, of course. Dostal has been proving for the last handful of seasons that his particular brand of competency, which combined the positional acuity of Gibson before him with an extra little flash of speed and skating prowess, is more than enough to pull Anaheim out of their free-fall into rebuild territory. The Southern California former powerhouse finished just two games shy of hitting .500 on the season, pulling themselves up from the bottom two in their division for the first time since before the pandemic. That was due largely to Dostal, who finished with above-league average goals saved metrics on a tough team despite shouldering his first real starting workload. With Calle Clang eagerly waiting in the wings, Anaheim would be smart to control Dostal's starts, keeping him to just over half the games played for the year when they're clearly not ready to contend. But for a team that's been scrambling in net this long, that might feel hard to do - so it will be hard to blame Anaheim if they get excited and ride Dostal's performances to a position where, while still unlikely to contend for the cup, the Ducks could at the very least make life difficult for the others in the Wild Card race.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – ANAHEIM DUCKS – Team Preview

Thu, 26 Sep 2024 16:00:04 +0000

_{WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 23: Ducks center Mason McTavish (37) stickhandles during the Anaheim Ducks versus Washington Capitals National Hockey League game on February 23, 2023 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)}

The rebuilding Ducks weren’t expected to make the playoffs in 2023-24, but there was still some hope that they might at least take a step forward compared to their 2022-23 finish under new bench boss Greg Cronin. Given that they finished the prior campaign with a 23-47-12 record, that couldn’t be a lower bar to exceed, but in the end, they had a similarly dreary showing in 2023-24, finishing at 27-50-5. It didn’t help that Trevor Zegras was limited to 31 contests last season after previously leading the Ducks offensively with 65 points, but even still, it’s hard to blame finishing 30th offensively (2.48 goals per game) and 30th defensively (3.57 goals allowed per game) on some injury issues

WHAT’S CHANGED? Jakob Silfverberg decided to end his NHL playing career, but the Ducks otherwise didn’t lose any major players over the summer. They didn’t make any major acquisitions either, though, with arguably the most noteworthy add being Robby Fabbri, who is projected to serve in a middle-six capacity after being grabbed in a trade with Detroit. However, that’s not to suggest Anaheim’s upcoming roster will be a near carbon copy of its previous one. Cutter Gauthier might make a big impact as a rookie, and we also should see youngsters Pavel Mintyukov, Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish take steps forward.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? If Gauthier lives up to the hype after scoring 38 goals and 65 points across 41 contests with Boston College last year, and becomes a prominent part of Anaheim’s top six, then that alone would be reason for celebration. Getting to see some measurable progress out of the aforementioned Mintyukov, Carlsson, and McTavish would also be a big deal. Outside of that, a lot of attention will be on 24-year-old goaltender Lukas Dostal, who had some absolutely stunning starts last year, but lacked consistency. If he can find his rhythm this season while the Ducks simultaneously get contributions from that young group, then Anaheim would be an exciting team to watch.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? When you’re a young team relying on prospects, the most obvious potential issue is that they need more time to develop than initially thought. McTavish, for example, made some strides last season, but he didn’t end up having the breakout campaign some hoped for. Anaheim might encounter similar growing pains again. Then there’s the issue of the team’s overall defence. Dostal had two 50-plus save performances last season, which is an amazing accomplishment, but also highlights the defensive shortcomings of those in front of him. Anaheim ranked 30th last year with 3.4 xGA/60. If the Ducks don’t improve meaningfully by that metric, then it's hard to envision them competing for a playoff spot even if everything else goes ideally.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Trading Jamie Drysdale to Philadelphia in January was a difficult decision, but Gauthier could make it worth it. He has the potential to be the full package, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Anaheim use him in a top six capacity this season.

FORWARD

Troy Terry

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	24	31	55	0.70

While Terry had his third straight season with at least 20 goals and 50 points, his production dipped a bit from the previous two seasons. Part of that was a function of a declining shot rate, going from 2.69 shots on goal per game in 2022-2023 to 2.26 shots on goal per game in 2023-2024. He has still matured into a reliable first-line winger, even if not necessarily a star; a reliable contributor at both ends of the rink. Terry’s confidence has grown, and it is reflected in his play and how he has the patience to attack defenders one-on-one and make plays to generate scoring chances. He also plays a game that is not especially physical. Among the 223 forwards that have played at least 200 games in the past three seasons, Terry ranks 222nd (ahead of only Johnny Gaudreau) with 35 hits. Nevertheless, on a team that is depending on elite young talent, a proven performer like Terry is of vital importance to help those players get to the next level in their development. Part of the challenge when forecasting his production in 2024-2025 is that proliferation of young forwards at the top of the depth chart in Anaheim. That does leave some variability but, considering his performance in recent seasons, 25 goals and 60 points remain reasonable objectives.

Trevor Zegras

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	18	28	46	0.58

A broken ankle and lower-body injuries limited Zegras to just 31 games last season and while he managed just 15 points, he did have quality underlying numbers, so he does have a chance to deliver a bounce back season. For one thing, Zegras is a creative playmaker who can make highlight reel plays and there is an audacity to his game that is exciting. The challenge will be to turn his immense puck skills into better on-ice results. Since Zegras has not been able to improve in the faceoff circle, winning 40.6 percent of his draws, it could make sense to shift him to the wing, at least some of the time. That would free him up to focus more on the attack, which is an obvious strength to his game. He already has two seasons with more than 60 points, so he has offensive upside that could really pay off under the right circumstances. The question will be whether he finds those right circumstances in Anaheim next season. The Ducks are improving their depth of talent and there should be enough quality available that Zegras can play a top six role as well as first-unit power play. He had a career low on-ice shooting percentage (7.7 percent) last season, and his shooting percentage of 8.2 percent was down from the previous couple of seasons. If his percentages pick back up, Zegras should be able to once again challenge for 20 goals and 60 points.

Frank Vatrano

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	26	26	52	0.63

A sturdy winger who has always been able to generate shots, Vatrano reached his peak performance level in 2023-2024, setting career highs with 37 goals and 60 points. He also delivered 156 hits, the first season of his career in which he exceeded 100 hits. He added banger league value with a career-high 85 penalty minutes, too. What is wild about Vatrano’s impressive statistical breakout season is that his on-ice results were quite poor. The Ducks controlled 44.1 percent of shot attempts and 45.1 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play while Vatrano was on the ice. They were outscored 67-47. That was better than his first season in Anaheim but, still, there is a lot of room for improvement in his all-around impact. Vatrano played mostly with Ryan Strome and Mason McTavish, so there is talent around him, but their defensive play needs dramatic improvement if the Ducks are going to be more competitive. Putting aside the team impacts, fantasy managers are going to be interested in Vatrano because of his offensive production, coupled with hits and a strong shot rate as he recorded a career-high 3.32 shots on goal per game last season. It is probably fair not to expect Vatrano to repeat his career-best season, but he could still deliver 25 goals and 45-50 points, along with 100-plus hits.

Leo Carlsson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	20	29	49	0.65

The second overall pick in the 2023 Draft, Carlsson made a smooth transition to the NHL as an 18-year-old centre. The 6-foot-3 pivot plays a game well beyond his years, particularly on the defensive end, where he has an active stick and plays a sound positional game. Carlson’s combination of size and skill offers tantalizing potential. He scored six goals in his first nine games and endured some injuries on his way to finishing with 12 goals and 29 points in 55 games. He missed time with a sprained MCL, a concussion, and another lower-body injury, which obviously didn’t help his development, but he showed well in the games that he played. That is barely scratching the surface of Carlsson’s potential, but it also might take some time for the skilled young forward to reach that potential. Carlsson’s play driving numbers – better than break-even in terms of Corsi percentage and expected goals percentage – while playing more than 18 minutes per game on a team near the bottom of the standings, were very encouraging. He shoots the puck well enough already to score from distance and has soft hands that serve him well when he has the puck in close to the net. These signs suggest that it’s not a reach to expect a significant offensive jump this season. Something along the lines of 20 goals and 50-plus points would be a move in the right direction.

Mason McTavish

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	23	33	56	0.73

The third pick in the 2021 Draft, McTavish continued to make progress in his second NHL season, ultimately finishing with one less point in 16 fewer games than he played in 2022-2023. His 1.65 primary points per 60 minutes of five-on-five play ranked 81st. Considering that he is 21 years old, this is a strong rate of production. While his possession numbers continue to improve, McTavish is still underwater there, with 45.4 percent Corsi and 46.8 expected goals percentage. A strong and physical forward who can win battles along the boards and use his body to effectively protect the puck, he should be able to improve his shot differentials. Last season, he did miss 18 games with a variety of injuries and while none of them were major, that is going to be something to monitor as his career progresses. When it comes to determining McTavish’s offensive upside in 2024-2025, it will depend on what kind of offensive opportunities are provided to him. On a team that also has Leo Carlsson and Trevor Zegras down the middle of the ice, McTavish is facing competition for prime scoring ice time. Considering where he is in his career, though, there should be more progress, so 20 goals and 50 points are reasonable targets for him this season.

Alex Killorn

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	22	28	50	0.63

Coming off career-highs of 27 goals and 64 points in 2022-2023, Killorn cashed in last summer as a free agent after years of being a quality contributor during the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Stanley Cup runs. The veteran winger was the beneficiary of an unsustainably high shooting percentage that season, though, so he was a natural candidate for regression in his first season with the Ducks. Sure enough, Killorn’s production dropped to 18 goals and 36 points in 63 games while playing a career-high 18:44 per game. That required a rather furious finish, which saw Killorn score 11 goals in his last 24 games. Even in his mid-30s, Killorn was still an effective play driver, his 51 percent Corsi ranking second among Ducks regulars and he was a reliable penalty killer. While his contract may not age well, in the short term, Killorn brings a professionalism and commitment that can help lead the young Ducks in the right direction. At his age, there is a decreasing likelihood that Killorn will bounce back to previous levels of production, so 15-20 goals and a 40-point season is a fair expectation, but some of that will depend on how well the younger players perform. If they are not ready to step into prominent roles, then Killorn could still be needed to score for the Ducks.

Ryan Strome

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	13	28	41	0.50

A veteran forward who can play centre or wing, Strome has put up back-to-back 41-point seasons in his first two years with the Ducks. While he is a capable complementary player at the offensive end, Strome’s defensive play has declined significantly in his first two seasons with the Ducks. Maybe some of that is a function of an inexperienced supporting cast, but the Ducks have been outscored 126-85 with Strome on the ice for five-on-five play across the past two seasons. In those two seasons, the Ducks have managed 43.7 percent of shots attempts and 41.3 percent of expected goals with him on the ice, so his poor results are backed by poor underlying numbers. That’s not going to cut it, especially when he is needed to be a veteran leader for this team. Strome’s ability to play multiple positions does give Anaheim more options when trying to put their lines together, but it would be most helpful if Strome added a dose of reliability wherever he ultimately fits in the lineup. If not, his ice time could continue to decrease. Last season, his ice time fell below 16 minutes per game for the first time since 2018-2019. At this point, with younger players pushing for bigger roles with the Ducks, it’s probably not reasonable to expect Strome to provide much more than the 40 points.

Robby Fabbri

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	16	17	33	0.44

A veteran forward who has had to overcome three ACL tears to continue his NHL career, Fabbri has skill and is obviously extremely resilient, but injuries have taken a toll on him. Despite tying his career high with 18 goals last season, Fabbri has been dependent on finishing at a high percentage – he had a shooting percentage of 18.9 percent across his last two seasons in Detroit – because he does not generate a lot of shots on goal. On the positive side, Fabbri scored 1.09 goals per 60 minutes last season, which ranked 47th among forwards that played at least 500 minutes. Fabbri’s ice time fell below 13 minutes per game last season, the first time he failed to meet that threshold since 2018-2019. Fabbri has some versatility that allows him to fill a middle six role for Anaheim. He has also been a poor defensive player, so that could potentially pose problems for a Ducks team that does not have an abundance of quality two-way forwards. In any case, Fabbri should be able to contribute secondary scoring as long as he is healthy, but he played 68 games last season and that was his most since playing in 72 games as a rookie, so it’s almost assured that he will miss time. That leaves some variability in expectations but something in the range of 15 goals and 30 points is a fair expectation.

Brett Leason

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	12	12	24	0.30

Leason is a 6-foot-5 winger who enjoyed something of a breakout season in 2023-2024, scoring 11 goals and 22 points, high-water marks to this point in his career. Leason’s size gives him an edge when it comes to battling for pucks and his ability to chip in offensively made him a valuable depth forward for the Ducks last season. For a player who tends to spend most of his time on the lower end of the depth chart, Leason does have a potent wrist shot, which makes him capable of scoring from distance. If he is going to be something more than a fourth-line player, the next challenge is for him to be able to generate more opportunities to use that shot. Leason’s best stretch came in the second half of the season when, upon returning from an upper-body injury, he tallied nine points (5 G, 4 A) in 14 games while he averaged 14:29 of ice time per game. He could not sustain those numbers over a longer period, and it would be unreasonable to expect that from him, but looking ahead, Leason could still contribute double-digit goals and 20-plus points, with some upward mobility if he manages to climb the depth chart.

DEFENCE

Cam Fowler

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	7	36	43	0.52

A steady veteran who has played 14 seasons in Anaheim, Fowler’s experience and steady hand is of major importance on a Ducks blueline that is developing young talent. Fowler has always been an adept distributor of the puck and has surpassed 30 assists in each of the past three seasons. He has averaged more than 24 minutes of ice time in each of those three seasons and he should remain in that kind of prominent role again. Oddly enough, Fowler led the Ducks in ice time during four-on-five play, even though his results have crashed hard in recent seasons. Across the past three campaigns, there are 113 defencemen that have played at least 300 minutes of four-on-five play and only three have a higher expected goals against and three have a higher goals against per 60 minutes than Fowler. Nevertheless, Fowler is of critical importance on this team, a consistent presence who has been durable, missing a total of seven games across the past four seasons. He is not a strong physical presence, instead relying on strong instincts and hockey IQ to put him in the right position. Considering his role and reliability, Fowler should find himself scoring in the range of 40 points once again.

Pavel Mintyukov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
71	5	30	35	0.49

The 10th pick in the 2022 Draft, Mintyukov made his NHL debut last season, and it was a strong first season. He showed lots of potential, and it is going to be up to the young blueliner and the Ducks organization to develop him into a bona fide No. 1 defenceman. Mintyukov skates well and is not shy about using that skill to join the attack, entering the offensive zone with confidence. He recorded seven power play points in a 30-game span from November 1 through January 10, but he suffered a separated shoulder and missed more than a month of action and did not record another point with the man advantage for the rest of the season. Even so, Mintyukov averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game after returning from his injury and contributed nine points in 23 games. There were naturally some growing pains in his first NHL season, because he was 19 years old when last season started, and he was playing significant minutes on a team that was among the weakest squads in the league. For a top player like Mintyukov, though, that experience should be valuable, giving him the opportunity to step forwards into an even more significant role in his second season. Certainly, the hope will be that he manages to stay healthier than he did in his rookie campaign and that could reasonably lead to 35-40 points, possibly more if Mintyukov takes over as the quarterback on Anaheim’s top power play unit.

Radko Gudas

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	4	12	16	0.22

Despite missing 16 games last season, Gudas was one of just two defencemen to record at least 150 blocked shots and 200 hits last season (Detroit’s Moritz Seider was the other one). Gudas is a warrior who sacrifices his body for his team and the 34-year-old blueliner has been doing it for quite some time. He joined the Ducks as a free agent last summer and averaged 19:30 of ice time per game, the second highest average of his career, and his highest average time on ice since 2015-2016. Although Gudas has a well-earned reputation for borderline hits, that should not overshadow that he is an excellent defender, who had the lowest on-ice rate of expected goals against (2.28 xGA/60) among Anaheim defenders last season. He is known much more for his play without the puck, but Gudas also contributes at the offensive end, partly because he is ready and willing to fire the puck whenever the opportunity is there for him. Among the eight defensemen that played at least 200 five-on-five minutes for the Ducks last season, Gudas had the highest rate of shot attempts (11.83 iCF/60) and shots on goal (4.38 Shots/60). For fantasy managers, Gudas offers sneaky value because he last reached 20 points in a season in 2018-2019, but he provides hits, blocked shots and even a passable rate of shots on goal that can make him useful. His penalty minute totals make him even more valuable in banger leagues. At this stage of his career, there is little point in expecting a dramatic change, so Gudas should be expected to contribute 15-20 points.

Brian Dumoulin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	4	14	18	0.22

Moving to Seattle resulted in an odd decrease in ice time, with Dumoulin averaging 17:01 of ice time per game after seven straight seasons averaging more than 20 minutes per game. That should get reversed in Anaheim, where the Ducks can surely use Dumoulin’s reliability on the blueline. He is a two-time Stanley Cup winner who was not merely a passenger on those Penguins teams – he was averaging more than 20 minutes per game on epic playoff runs. It is also unusual that Dumoulin saw this ice time reduced in Seattle because his on-ice results were quite strong, leading Kraken defencemen (minimum 500 five-on-five minutes) in both Corsi (53.9 percent) and expected goals percentage (54.5 percent). That doesn’t seem like a player who should have been playing less! Even at his peak, Dumoulin was never a big scorer, but he did have a career-high 25 points with Pittsburgh in 2022-2023. With a more prominent role on Anaheim’s blueline, Dumoulin should be able to find his way to 20 points, but he has surpassed 125 blocked shots and 100 hits four times each in his career. That kind of production in peripheral statistical categories might make him a worthwhile addition in deep leagues.

GOAL

John Gibson

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
43	16	23	5	0	0.901	3.60

Lukas Dostal

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
39	14	20	4	2	0.904	3.45

The post-John Gibson era in Anaheim is slowly approaching. With just three years left of the albatross eight-year deal that Gibson and the Ducks have been slogging through, and a bright new future with Lukas Dostal sitting front and center, it almost seems like Anaheim might just let the remainder of their veteran star's contract burn itself out at the Honda Center. While it seemed at the start of the 2023 season like Gibson might have been on the upswing, though, only Chicago's Arvid Soderblom served as a greater albatross in net as the year came to a close. While the Ducks continued to struggle with allowing quality shots in the high slot, a full season of both Gibson and Dostal made it painfully apparent that it wasn't just the team struggling - Gibson was struggling with them.

Things look bright for Anaheim with regards to how Dostal handled his first full season as half of an official NHL tandem, so the picture in Southern California isn't as bleak as it has been in recent years. While Dostal struggled almost as much as Gibson with net-front attacks, he was able to clean up the peripheral damage that Gibson had allowed to fester with poor defensive coverage outside the circles. His numbers matched up to a strong ability to stay on-angle and recover in time for rebound attempts in a way that Gibson hasn't been able to in at least a handful of seasons. Things won't truly turn around in net for the Ducks until Gibson's contract has finally reached an end, but the future looks much more promising now than it has since the Gibson-Frederik Andersen era.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Perfetti, Mittelstadt and Tippett stepping up – Vasilveskiy returns + plus much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 24 Nov 2023 17:03:03 +0000

CHICAGO, IL - NOVEMBER 19: Casey Mittelstadt #37 of the Buffalo Sabres brings the puck up ice during the second period against the Chicago Blackhawks at the United Center on November 19, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Cole Perfetti, Casey Mittelstadt, and Owen Tippett are among the forwards elevating their play, Andrei Vasilevskiy nears his return, and a couple of Masons are offering up solid production.

#1 As a rookie last season, Winnipeg Jets winger Cole Perfetti contributed 30 points (8 G, 22 A) in 51 games, before he was sidelined by an upper-body injury. His 0.59 points per game ranked third among rookies and that appears to be the launching pad because he has continued his career ascent in his second season. He has 13 points (5 G, 8 A) and 29 shots on goal in his past 13 games. He is skating with Nikolaj Ehlers and Vladislav Namestnikov on the second line, but Perfetti is also in a reliable role on Winnipeg’s top power play unit.

#2 With Tage Thompson out, the Buffalo Sabres need others to step up offensively, and Casey Mittelstadt is an interesting option. He has 13 points (2 G, 11 A) in his past 15 games and played a career high 23:21 in Buffalo’s overtime loss at Washington on Wednesday. Mittelstadt is working with Buffalo’s promising young wingers, with sophomore J.J. Peterka and rookie Zach Benson on his flanks.

#3 Last season was a breakout campaign for Philadelphia Flyers winger Owen Tippett, as he put up 49 points (27 G, 22 A) in 77 games, finally realizing his potential as a shot generating goal scorer. In his past six games, Tippett has put up eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal. He is on the top power play but has an interesting line combination in Philadelphia, with Cam Atkinson on the right side and Ryan Poehling at centre. Poehling, who has been a fourth line centre for most of his NHL career, is taking advantage of this opportunity and suddenly has five points (2 G, 3 A) in the past four games.

#4 The Tampa Bay Lightning have stated that goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is on the brink of a return from back surgery. He is ahead of the initial timeline of 10 weeks that was announced in late September, but Tampa Bay has managed to tread water with Jonas Johansson as the starting netminder. Johansson recorded back-to-back shutouts in late October, and it looked like he was somehow more effective than anyone could have anticipated, posting a .925 save percentage in seven starts. As his sample size increased, however, it became more apparent that Johansson was not up to handling a starter’s role. In 10 starts since those shutouts, he has a .871 save percentage, so the Lightning will surely be happy to get Vasilevskiy back between the pipes. At the same time, since he is recovering from back surgery, the Lightning might not be able to lean on Vasilevskiy as much as they have in previous seasons. Since the 2019-2020 season, Vasilevskiy has started 217 games. Only Connor Hellebuyck (245) and Jacob Markstrom (220) started more games in that time.

#5 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand had a respectable first season in Seattle in 2022-2023, but his 45 points in 81 games (0.56 points per game) was a dip in per-game production compared to his previous three seasons in Columbus. It appears that the pendulum is swinging back in Bjorkstrand’s favour as he has tallied 18 points (7 G, 11 A) in his past 17 games. On a Kraken team that depends on depth, Bjorkstrand is a valuable complementary scorer, so valuable that he is now leading the Kraken with 19 points in 21 games.

#6 After signing as a free agent in Dallas, left winger Mason Marchment struggled last season, finishing with 31 points (12 G, 19 a) in 68 games. He didn’t exactly burst out of the gate this season, either, with zero points in his first five games, but he has found his range since then, contributing 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 27 shots on goal in 13 games. There are some limits to Marchment’s offensive upside, in part because he does not have a role on the power play, but he is making the most of his even-strength minutes on a line with veteran scorers Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin.

#7 A third-line winger does not typically provide a lot of fantasy value, though in deep leagues that mileage may vary. Winnipeg’s Mason Appleton has been thriving on a line with Nino Niederreiter and Adam Lowry and it is resulting in more offence than Appleton has typically provided in his career. In his past 13 games, Appleton has 11 points (5 G, 6 A) and 25 shots on goal. He is also playing 17 minutes per game over that stretch, which is a step up from previous seasons – he played a career-high 16:01 per game last season.

#8 Although he has bounced around a lot in recent seasons, New York Rangers defenceman Erik Gustafsson seems to have found a nice fit on Broadway. Known primarily as a power play quarterback and puck moving defenceman, Gustafsson has excellent possession numbers (53.8 CF%) to go with 12 points (3 G, 9 A) in 17 games. This is not altogether unusual for him – he had 42 points in 70 games with Washington and Toronto last season – but Gustafsson seems to have what the Rangers need in a depth defenceman. While many teams seek out bangers to handle third pair minutes, Gustafsson is decidedly not that kind of player, and that could contribute to why he has moved around so much, but he has been very effective with the Blueshirts.

#9 Acquired from the Los Angeles Kings as part of the three-way deal sending Ivan Provorov to Columbus, Sean Walker has maximized the opportunity presented to him in Philadelphia. Walker tore his ACL in 2021-2022, playing just six games, and when he returned last season, he was stuck in a part-time role with the Kings. Moving to Philadelphia, however, has opened the door for Walker to handle much more responsibility. He is averaging more than 21 minutes of ice time per game, and has six points (1 G, 5 A) with 14 shots on goal in his past five games.

#10 There are some tough times in Chicago right now. Rookie Connor Bedard is living up to lofty expectations, scoring 16 points (10 G, 6 A) in 17 games, but his veteran supporting cast has been decimated. Taylor Hall is out for the season with a torn ACL, Andreas Athanasiou is on the injured list, and Corey Perry was scratched for vague “organizational reasons”. Lukas Reichel and Philipp Kurashev are the latest to get a look on Bedard’s wings and Kurashev is an intriguing option, as the 24-year-old forward has put up 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 11 games this season.

#11 Gustav Nyquist is riding a six-game point streak for Nashville, scoring eight points (1 G, 7 A) in the process. He is in an excellent place to produce, skating on the top line, with Ryan O’Reilly and Filip Forsberg, as well as holding down a spot on Nashville’s top power play unit. He is a skilled offensive player who succeeds in a supporting role. In a small sample with Minnesota late last season and into the playoffs, he had 10 points (1 G, 9 A) in nine games. Given the opportunity to play with quality talent in Nashville, 34-year-old Nyquist is showing that he still has the playmaking chops.

#12 Predicting goaltending performance is a challenge at the best of times, but 38-year-old New York Rangers goaltender Jonathan Quick is making a mockery of the idea that past performance or aging curves have a place in the game. Over the previous five seasons, Quick had a .897 save percentage in 197 games. He had established that he was a below-average goaltender most of the time. In seven games for the Rangers this year, he has a .940 save percentage and a 5-0-1 record. It’s hard to gain a ton of value from a goaltender that is very clearly the backup on his team, and it’s risky enough to take a shot on a 38-year-old riding a hot streak, but in desperate times, it might be worth considering Quick, no matter how unlikely that might have seemed at the start of the season.

#13 A slow start puts the Calgary Flames’ season in peril, but it looks like Nazem Kadri is doing his part to help the Flames climb out of their early season hole. Kadri had zero goals and one assist through eight games to open the season, but has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) with 33 shots on goal in 11 games since. He is currently on a line with Dillon Dube and rookie Martin Pospisil, which is not exactly a surefire path to success, but it should be noted that Pospisil has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 26 shots on goal in his first nine NHL games.

#14 Seattle Kraken winger Eeli Tolvanen is another player who started slowly but has turned things around. He had zero goals and two assists through eight games but has been scoring at a point-per-game clip since, registering 13 points (5 G, 8 A) with 34 shots on goal in the past 13 games. He seems to have found a good place, skating on the left wing with Yanni Gourde and Bjorkstrand.

#15 Tampa Bay Lightning right winger Nikita Kucherov is obviously one of the premier offensive players in the game, but the 30-year-old playmaker has added a new dimension to his game – he is shooting and scoring a lot more. In November, Kucherov has recorded 51 shots on goal in 10 games, scoring seven times. His 13 goals in 19 games this season is the highest per-game (0.68) goal scoring rate of his career.

#16 Looking to buy low on players that are getting the shots but can’t seem to find the net? Matthew Tkachuk, Nathan MacKinnon, Cole Caufield, Adam Fantilli, and Jakub Vrana are all averaging at least three shots on goal per game in November, while scoring on less than six percent of their shots. Obviously Tkachuk and MacKinnon are going to carry a lot of value already, but their goal-scoring slumps could help make their acquisition cost more palatable. Fantilli is interesting because the Blue Jackets have been a mess lately, but he is still generating chances and that should start to materialize into goals as he continues to mature.

#17 There are four defencemen that have recorded at least 20 hits and 20 blocked shots in November: Radko Gudas, Jacob Trouba, Moritz Seider, and Mackenzie Weegar. Tyler Myers has 19 hits and 25 blocked shots, so he just missed the cut off. Gudas has also added four points (2 G, 2 A) in his past six games.

#18 Colorado Avalanche centre Ross Colton has picked up five points (3 G, 2 A) in the past five games. He has limited upside given his role with the Avalanche but has scored 38 goals in the previous two seasons and has six goals in 18 games this season. In deep leagues, that might be enough, at least when he is riding a hot streak.

#19 After seeing Nicklas Backstrom step away from the Washington Capitals, it’s fair to wonder whether T.J. Oshie is going to be able to get back to his previous form. The 36-year-old winger scored Wednesday against Buffalo to snap a nine-game scoreless drought, during which he had just 14 shots on goal. Oshie is still averaging more than 17 minutes of ice time per game, and still has his role on Washington’s top power play unit, so he is getting opportunities, but the production is lagging.

#20 Carolina’s Michael Bunting has zero goals and two assists in his past seven games and has been dropped to the fourth line. He played a season-low in 9:22 in Carolina’s win over Edmonton on Wednesday, and it’s not easy to climb that Hurricanes depth chart, with Teuvo Teravainen and Andrei Svechnikov holding down spots on the top two lines and Jordan Martinook excelling in a checking role on the third line. For the time being that might make it prudent for fantasy managers to let Bunting go and circle back around if his situation improves.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – ANAHEIM DUCKS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Wed, 20 Sep 2023 13:20:39 +0000

WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 23: Ducks center Mason McTavish (37) stickhandles during the Anaheim Ducks versus Washington Capitals National Hockey League game on February 23, 2023 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

Review: Anaheim went into the 2022-23 with low expectations and still managed to finish below them. They posted a 23-47-12 record, which was an 18-point drop from 2021-22, and ended last in the league. Despite having a solid young forward core of Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry and Mason McTavish, Anaheim finished 31st offensively with 2.51 goals per game. They did just as poorly at the other end of the ice with John Gibson recording a 14-31-8 record, 3.99 GAA and .899 save percentage in 53 outings. To be fair to Gibson, he had the league’s worst defense in front of him when measured by five-on-five expected goals against (221.12), but clearly, he couldn’t make things any better. In summary, Anaheim was just a terrible team in basically every respect.

What’s Changed? There hasn’t been much in the way of roster turnover. Defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk and goaltender Anthony Stolarz left as free agents while the Ducks signed Alex Killorn to a four-year, $25 million contract to bolster their top-six. Anaheim also had the best odds of getting Connor Bedard but lost the draft lottery to Chicago. The silver lining is that the Ducks were able to use the second overall pick on Leo Carlsson, who could make the Ducks this year and has the potential to develop into a great two-way center.

What would success look like? No one would be surprised if Anaheim missed the playoffs for the sixth consecutive year, but they could at least show some progress. Zegras is entering his fourth NHL campaign and could take another step forward. Anaheim might also get a strong bounce back campaign from 21-year-old defenseman Jamie Drysdale, who missed almost the entire 2022-23 campaign due to a shoulder injury. Carlsson’s development is also of the utmost importance, and if he has a strong rookie campaign, that will go a long way towards giving Ducks fans hope.

What could go wrong? Drysdale is a big part of the Ducks’ long-term plans, so if he suffers another major injury, then it will be an extremely troubling sign. There’s also a chance that Anaheim will lean on Carlsson too much before he’s ready, which might lead to him struggling and messing with his confidence. There’s a good chance new head coach Greg Cronin will help with the development of Anaheim’s young players, given his lengthy coaching resume that includes time as a bench boss in the AHL and the NCAA’s Northeastern University. However, this will be Cronin’s first opportunity as a head coach at the NHL level, so there is some risk that his methods might prove less effective at the highest level, which would in turn complicate the Ducks’ rebuilding efforts.

Top Breakout Candidate: McTavish had a decent rookie campaign with 17 goals and 43 points in 80 contests, but he has the potential to do so much better. He should get a chance to serve in a top-six role in his sophomore season after averaging just 12:49 of ice time in even-strength situations last year. The addition of Killorn will also likely result in McTavish getting a chance to consistently play alongside at least one of Killorn or Adam Henrique, which will give him a solid forward to work off.

Forwards

Trevor Zegras - C

A creative playmaker who paced the Ducks with 65 points in 2022-2023, Zegras is a highlight reel waiting to happen and plays with an audacity that could really be a marketing dream if he isn’t stuck toiling for a bottom-dwelling franchise. Zegras is among the players most likely to attempt, and succeed, a lacrosse-style goal, and seems to be gaining a reputation for talking on the ice, both of which tend to play better if your team is winning. Zegras has room to improve in his own right, not least of all on his faceoffs, as he has won 40.9% of his draws in 180 career games. He is one of 56 players to have recorded at least 60 points in each of the past two seasons and that feels like the 22-year-old is just scratching the surface of what he could become with the right supporting cast. Questions about that supporting cast are the main concern when it comes to projecting Zegras’ production for the 2023-2024 season. Last season, his most common linemate was Ryan Strome, followed by Troy Terry and Adam Henrique. Newcomer Alex Killorn should be considered as a possibility to play on Zegras’ wing and 65-70 points should be a fair expectation.

Troy Terry - RW

It took some time, but in the past two seasons, Terry has started to reach his potential as an offensive performer, in part because he is generating more shots. Last season, he had a career high 2.69 shots on goal per game and has scored 47 even-strength goals in the past two seasons, which is tied for 29^th. In his last 27 games of the regular season, Terry delivered 27 points (11 G, 16 A). He has become a well-rounded player who creates opportunities, can finish, and has reliable defensive results as well, and that is not to be taken for granted on a Ducks team with many holes. Terry had a Corsi percentage of 48.7% which doesn’t sound like much, but it was the best among Ducks regulars. Terry, who will turn 26 before the 2023-2024 season begins, signed a long-term contract extension with the Ducks this summer, and should be a core piece while this team tries to turn the corner. While his shooting percentage predictably declined last season, Terry did increase his shot volume and recorded more assists, so his overall production was nearly at the same level of his breakthrough 2021-2022 season. While his strong finish last season suggests that he might have a higher ceiling, a total in the range of 60 to 70 points is a reasonable expectation.

Mason McTavish - RW

The third pick in the 2021 draft, McTavish finished seventh in Calder Trophy voting last season and that was underachieving to some degree because he was among the favorites to be named top rookie going into the season. It took McTavish some time to get going, but from mid-December through mid-March, he produced 26 points (12 G, 14 A) in 36 games, while averaging more than 16 minutes of ice time per game, an inkling of the kind of production that awaits the sturdy young forward. McTavish thrived in the shooter position on the power play, waiting to unload one-timers from the faceoff circle, and that should only become a bigger part of McTavish’s game as he matures. While his overall impact as a rookie was modest, McTavish did flash potential and he already has a body that is strong enough to handle the challenges of pro hockey. He can play a physical game, win board battles, and get to the net in traffic, all of which can help him have success at this level. McTavish should take a step forward in his second season. There are still concerns about the supporting cast in Anaheim, but McTavish should see more ice time and his on-ice shooting percentage (7.6%) was on the low end. After 43 points as a rookie, McTavish could see a jump to 55 points in his sophomore season.

Alex Killorn - LW

A valuable contributor to the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Stanley Cups wins, the veteran winger is coming off a season in which he tallied a career high 27 goals and 64 points. There are some warning signs for Killorn’s future production, however, as he scored on 18.9% of his shots last season, well above his career mark of 12.5%, and he will be 34 by the time the pucks drops this season. Even with those concerns, Killorn is a quality addition to the Ducks, as a veteran who has played a lot of meaningful hockey in his career. The challenge for Killorn will be to provide the same fire and competitive play for a team that is not going to be a Cup contender anytime soon. Killorn thrived for a long time as a complementary player to elite talent in Tampa Bay. He is not going to have that kind of talent around him in Anaheim so, combined with likely regression in his percentages, Killorn should see a significant drop in his scoring. His possession numbers were already starting to sag in the past couple of seasons and that was with a strong Lightning team. There will likely be a new career low in Corsi percentage this season in Anaheim. Killorn had a fabulous finish to his time in Tampa Bay. In 21 games after the trade deadline, he had 20 points (12 G, 8 A) and then he added three goals and five points in six playoff games. After a career-high 64 points last season, it would be asking a lot for Killorn to produce even 50 points in Anaheim in 2023-2024.

Frank Vatrano - LW

Throughout his career, the 29-year-old winger has established that he can put pucks on the net and last season that resulted in him scoring more than 20 goals for the second time in his career. While the goals were there, Vatrano had a tough season defensively, too, and a rebuilding team like the Ducks brought in the likes of Strome and Vatrano hoping to have some consistency and reliability and that did not happen last season. When he is firing the puck, Vatrano can get hot. During a 10-game stretch in January and February, he scored eight goals on 39 shots with seven of those goals coming at even strength. That is a useful contribution from a middle six winger. Vatrano played a career-high 16:41 per game in 2022-2023, and while he will have a steady role this season, that ice time could come down a bit, too, thanks to the addition of Killorn. Another 20-goal season remains within Vatrano’s reach, but he typically scores more goals than assists, so his point total might hover around 35 points.

Ryan Strome - C

Even though he contributed 15 goals and 41 points in his first season for the Ducks, Strome got crushed defensively. It looked promising early on, when Strome had 10 points (4 G, 6 A) in the first 13 games, but he could not sustain that production. He has spent most of his career in a complementary role, but the Ducks could use more leadership from the 30-year-old or, at the very least, much more reliable play away from the puck. For most of his career, Strome’s defensive play has hovered around average, maybe a little better, maybe a little worse depending on the season. In 2022-2023, though, he got caved in and the Ducks were outscored 72-47 during five-on-five play with Strome on the ice. That is far too lopsided and if Strome can’t offer reliable defensive play, he would likely have to shift to the wing, which would be less than ideal considering Isac Lundestrom will be out of the lineup for the first half of the season. If Strome’s defensive play bounces back, he can still provide value in a middle-six role for Anaheim, but there is enough uncertainty that 40 points is about what should be expected.

Adam Henrique - LW

Even though he was limited to just 62 games last season, Henrique still scored 22 goals, the sixth time in his career that he reached the 20-goal threshold. A reliable player who can productively handle center or wing, Henrique has won 53.0% of his faceoffs since joining the Ducks and is going into the final year of his contract, which makes him prime trade bait for this upcoming season. If he continues to produce, that will only make him more in demand. Henrique is a high-percentage finisher, scoring on 15.3% of his shots over the course of his career. Among active players that have scored at least 100 goals, that ranks 15^th. He can get on a hot streak at times. During an 11-game stretch in the second half of the season, Henrique contributed 12 points (7 G, 5 A) and there are not that many Ducks who can even claim to be capable of that kind of production. Injuries have been a common feature for Henrique in in the past couple of seasons, and that should put a limit on expectations for what he might produce in 2023-2024. With the expectation that he will likely miss significant time, 20 goals and 40 points would be a fair target for Henrique.

Jakob Silfverberg - RW

A four-time 20-goal scorer, Silfverberg managed just 10 goals last season as he saw his ice time reduced. The veteran winger averaged 15:16 per game, his lowest time on ice since 2013-2014, his first season with the Ducks. While his offensive contributions are fading, Silfverberg remains a quality defensive winger, and there is value in that, especially on a team where there is a need for any kind of reliable defensive play. He has started more than twice as many shifts in the defensive zone over the past two seasons, a tilt in the ice reflecting his change in deployment. Silfverberg had a 17-game goalless drought early in the season then wrapped up the season without a goal in his last 19 games. Even so, Silfverberg should still have a secure role in the middle six, but there is limited offensive upside at this point, so he is not likely to surpass 30 points.

Brock McGinn - LW

Having scored a dozen goals in back-to-back seasons, McGinn does offer some finishing ability, but his overall offensive contributions are limited. He is a quality checking winger, and the 29-year-old should be a bottom six upgrade for the Ducks, though he did not have much success in 15 games for Anaheim after he was acquired from Pittsburgh as part of the Dmitry Kulikov trade last season. He has flashed some offensive potential from time to time, scoring eight points (5 G, 3 A) during a 10-game span last November, but he also endured a 26-game pointless drought after Christmas that showed why McGinn is more suited to a checking role. While McGinn hit career highs of 16 goals and 30 points with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2017-2018, he has not been able to hit those highs again, so it would be unreasonable to expect more than 25 points from him this season.

Max Jones - LW

Considering he was a first-round pick in 2016, the Ducks have been waiting a while for Jones to fulfill his potential and the 19 points (9 G, 10 A) he scored last season counts as a career high. While Jones has good size and can skate, his total contribution remains limited. He does bring a physical element as a willing hitter, who had a career-high 110 hits last season and will drop the gloves from time to time, but if Jones can’t even surpass 20 points in a season, then he has little overall value. Now that he is 25 years old, he runs the risk of getting nudged out by younger prospects who are ready to challenge for full-time jobs in the NHL, so anything that he can do to solidify his role in the lineup should be embraced.

Defense

Cam Fowler - D

The 31-year-old is coming off a season in which he produced a career high 48 points while logging more than 24 minutes of ice time per game for the fourth time in his career. Fowler can distribute the puck and should play a ton for a Ducks team that is lacking proven NHL options on the blueline. That said, Fowler should not be killing penalties, as there have been 96 defensemen to play at least 300 4-on-5 minutes over the past three seasons, and Fowler ranks 93^rd in rate of expected goals against and 88^th in rate of shot attempts against. His reliability does make Fowler a valuable contributor in Anaheim, and he is the safest bet to quarterback the power play, at least at the start of the season. In the past two seasons, Fowler has scored 32 of his 90 points on the power play, so he should be able to contribute 40-plus points this season.

Jamie Drysdale - D

A torn labrum in his shoulder left the 21-year-old to play just eight games last season so it was effectively a lost season. The sixth pick in the 2021 Draft, Drysdale is a captivating skater, whose edge work sets him apart and gives him a chance to create more offense. On a rebuilding Ducks squad, with a bunch of rookies challenging for spots on the blueline, Drysdale might have an advantage when it comes to earning a top-four role, but if he squanders that opportunity as he returns from injury, he could be at risk of losing ice time to other prospects on Anaheim’s blueline. Given how thin the Ducks are on the blueline, a healthy Drysdale should see a lot of ice time, and it will be up to him to show that he deserves it. With such a limited track record, there are a wider range of outcomes for Drysdale’s point production this season but, if he is healthy, he will likely see power play time and could deliver 35-40 points.

Radko Gudas- D

One of the most punishing hitters in the league, Gudas has accumulated a league-leading 667 hits over the past two seasons, and he has done that playing on a third pairing, averaging 17:42 time on ice per game for the Florida Panthers. Moving to Anaheim there may be an opportunity for Gudas to log more ice time, and he has been effective enough in his depth role that he could be worth a look in a bigger role. He is also 33 years old and has never averaged 20 minutes of ice time per game in a season, so that is hardly the profile of a defender that is ready to take on substantially more minutes. Gudas is not particularly adept with the puck on his stick, so if he even hits 20 points, that would be the first time since 2018-2019 to hit that modest threshold.

Goaltending

John Gibson - G

It was hard enough to get a feel for what the Anaheim Ducks might get from John Gibson last year. He was floating in no-man’s land with an albatross contract and a career data set that suggested his best performances were somewhere in his rearview mirror, with even his style showing signs of genuine fatigue and not just his famous unhurried mannerisms. Then, he and the team were saddled with some off-ice distractions during the summer months. A media report suggested that the Pittsburgh native was going to refuse to play another game for the Ducks in an attempt to force their hand on a trade - and although his agent tried to quickly squash the report as nothing more than an inflammatory and false rumor, the damage had largely been done.

Now, Gibson will enter the 2023-24 season fresh off his worst statistical season to date, with ugly rumors swirling and making it hard to imagine he’ll be able to perform completely unbothered. He posted a career-high 31 losses last season in 53 games, falling below the .900 save percentage unadjusted over the entire season for the first time in his NHL career. And particularly to start the season, those numbers weren’t all the fault of a porous defence in front of him; he went through entire stretches during the season during which he posted the worst expected goals numbers in the entire Pacific Division. And like the last couple of years, it wasn’t all just on paper, either. His reactive speeds seemed slower, with the former league star misreading cross-ice plays and lagging behind incoming attacks in a way that made him look like he might have just lost his touch.

The good news, though, is that those numbers started to change over the back half of the 2022-23 season. While he still struggled from an outcome perspective, more of that appeared to be the fault of a defence that allowed more shots against than anyone else; Gibson himself didn’t return to star form, but his expected outputs returned to exactly league average, suggesting a slow but sure bounce-back for the starter. It’s possible that he could be getting closer to shaking off some of the bad form he was starting to display as the Ducks entered free-fall; it likely isn’t enough to push them back into contention for a Wild Card spot, but it could at the very least be enough to help get his career back on track for the final few years of his contract. The only question is whether that will play out in Anaheim, or if they’ll move him out at the deadline if his numbers improve enough.

Alex Stalock - G

The Anaheim Ducks are officially in full rebuild mode. They were the worst team in the NHL in 2022-23 - and with a tumultuous goaltending situation for John Gibson, the team made the right move bringing in a veteran who seems to do nothing but boost locker room morale.

Alex Stalock is an undersized option in net and he’s coming off of his first full NHL season since 2019-20 (he missed the entirety of the 2020-21 campaign due to a case of myocarditis and played just one NHL game the following year). But he made sure that his comeback season, despite playing for the also-heavily-rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks, was one that counted. His .908 unadjusted save percentage for Chicago over a 27-game offering was among the best performance by any goaltender on a bottom-tier squad, and his seemingly relentless optimism - shown in his refusal to ditch the aggressive save selections he’s always loved and his full sixty-minute efforts even behind a struggling squad - should serve Anaheim well regardless of who he tandems with. The expectation, of course, is that he’d split the net with John Gibson. But if the Ducks ultimately have to part ways with their beleaguered number one, expect to see Stalock as a guiding presence for the up-and-coming Lukas Dostal.

Projected starts: 25-30

STANLEY CUP FINAL: VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS FLORIDA PANTHERS – Goaltending key in a tightly contested series

Scott Cullen — Wed, 31 May 2023 17:14:40 +0000

SUNRISE, FL - MARCH 07: Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill (33) eyes Florida Panthers center Carter Verhaeghe (23) as he attacks with he puck during the game between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers on Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at FLA Live Arena in Sunrise, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

The Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers meet in what may be, by temperature, the hottest Stanley Cup Final in history. Vegas finished the regular season with 111 points, tops in the Western Conference. The Golden Knights have advanced to the Final round of the postseason tournament after defeating the Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, and Winnipeg Jets.

It has been a decidedly different path to the Final for the Florida Panthers, who snuck into the postseason with 92 points, the fewest of any team to qualify for the playoffs.

The Panthers eliminated the Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Carolina Hurricanes – the first, fourth, and second-place teams in the league, respectively, during the regular season – on the way to this matchup with the fifth-place Golden Knights.

If Florida is going to win, there will be no doubt that they have earned it, going through such a daunting path.

Forwards

Jack Eichel’s first playoff appearance has been a long time coming, but he is making the most of it. Eichel has 18 points in 17 games to lead the Golden Knights and has formed an outstanding line with Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault. The trio has controlled 56.2% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 12-4 during five-on-five play.

Marchessault has nine goals and 17 points, leading the Golden Knights with 62 shots on goal in 17 playoff contests. Barbashev, a pending free agent, is raising his offseason price tag with every game, contributing 15 points and playing a hard game, delivering 51 hits.

Part of what has made the Golden Knights so dangerous in the playoffs is their outstanding depth. Beyond the top line, captain Mark Stone has 15 points and Chandler Stephenson has 14. They skate on a line with Brett Howden, who has six points to go along with 51 hits.

William Karlsson centers the third line for Vegas and, in addition to fulfilling a checking role, also leads the Golden Knights with 10 goals in the playoffs. Reilly Smith chipped in 11 points and that pair of original Golden Knights have been joined by Michael Amadio, who has contributed seven points in 11 playoff games.

Vegas’ fourth line of William Carrier, Nicolas Roy, and Keegan Kolesar can hold their own and bring a physical presence. The Golden Knights have such strong depth that Teddy Blueger and Phil Kessel have been reduced to being part-time players, sitting for more games than they have dressed for in the playoffs.

Coming off his second consecutive 100-point season, Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk was already a star, but he has taken his game to a new level for the Panthers in the playoffs, leading the team with nine goals, 21 points, and four game-winning goals in 16 playoff games. He has been the proverbial straw that stirs the drink for the Panthers.

Tkachuk has mostly been skating on a line with Sam Bennett and Nick Cousins. Tkachuk and Bennett are not afraid to turn the game into a street fight, playing with the hard physical edge that is expected in playoff hockey.

Aleksander Barkov was the Panthers’ leader before Tkachuk arrived and has not been a dominant performer in the playoffs. He has 14 points and his line with Carter Verhaeghe and Anthony Duclair has outscored opponents 8-4 during five-on-five play, but that trio has also managed just 43.2% of expected goals, so there is room for improvement. Verhaeghe ranks second on the Panthers with 15 playoff points, while Duclair has contributed nine points.

Sam Reinhart is over-qualified as a third-line player, but he helps to diversify the Panthers’ attack, skating with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen. Reinhart ranks second among the Panthers with seven goals in the playoffs.

While forward depth is a clear strength for the Golden Knights, it is a notable weakness for the Panthers. Lundell and Luostarinen have three goals between them and fourth line contributors Eric Staal, Colin White, and either Ryan Lomberg or Zac Dalpe has combined for three goals. That is not a lot of production out of the lower half of the forward depth chart.

If the Panthers are going to compete in this series, they will likely need more contributions further down the lineup because it is asking a lot for Tkachuk to continue carrying the offense to the degree that he has so far in the postseason.

Defense

While all three of Vegas’ defense pairings are outscoring the opposition, only the duo of Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore is also driving play, controlling 54.5% of expected goals with Vegas outscoring opponents 11-8 with McNabb and Theodore on the ice during five-on-five play. Theodore has seven points in 16 playoff games, which is behind his regular-season pace of 41 points in 55 games.

Alex Pietrangelo leads Golden Knights defensemen with nine points in the postseason, and the Golden Knights are outscoring opponents 16-7 with Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez on the ice, despite managing 46.4% of expected goals, during five-on-five play.

Similarly, Vegas has outscored opponents 12-4 with the third pair of Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud on the ice during five-on-five play, despite managing 45.9% of expected goals. They do tend to play quite a bit to be considered the third pairing, as Hague and Whitecloud have seen the most five-on-five action of any Golden Knights defense tandem in the playoffs.

Florida’s defense is led by Brandon Montour, who has scored six goals in the playoffs, and leads the Panthers with 59 shots on goal. However, he has been paired with Marc Staal and the Panthers have been outscored 10-7 while getting just 41.2% of expected goals during five-on-five play with that duo on the ice. That could be a concern when facing a Vegas team with a lot of forwards capable of taking advantage against suspect defense.

The Panthers are outscoring opponents 10-5 with Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling on the ice even though they have generated 46.1% of expected goals at five-on-five. Montour, Forsling, and Ekblad are all averaging more than 24 minutes of ice time per game in the playoffs, so Florida does tend to lean on their top defenders.

Florida’s third pairing of Radko Gudas and Josh Mahura does not play as much, but they have been relatively effective. The Panthers have pulled nearly 55.0% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 5-4 with Gudas and Mahura on the ice.

Florida’s defensive track record in the playoffs has been subpar. They have allowed 33.3 shots against per 60 minutes in all situations, which is the second highest among all playoff teams. To be fair, Vegas has allowed 31.4 shots against per 60 minutes, which is fourth highest, so neither team has been in shutdown mode on the path to the Final. Of course, Florida has a secret weapon of sorts when the defense has faltered.

Goaltending

After playing at a below average level for three of the past four seasons, and not even starting the playoffs as the Panthers’ No.1 goaltender, Sergei Bobrovsky heads into the Cup Final as the odds-on favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy. In 14 playoff games, Bobrovsky has a .935 save percentage and leads all goaltenders with 19.45 Goals Saved Above Expected. He is a two-time Vezina Trophy winner, so it’s not like this performance is completely out of nowhere, but there has not been a lot in recent seasons to suggest that this level of play was still possible. Can he keep it up for one more round?

If Bobrovsky is an unlikely goalie to backstop a team to the Stanley Cup, what would that say about Vegas’ Adin Hill? The goaltending carousel has been turning all season for the Golden Knights, with injuries forcing the team to start five different goaltenders after presumed No. 1 Robin Lehner was deemed out for the season. In the playoffs Laurent Brossoit started for Vegas, but Hill has stepped in and delivered high quality performance, posting a .937 save percentage with 10.78 Goals Saved Above Expected in 11 games.

The team that gets the better goaltending should have an edge in the series. The challenge is figuring out which one of these surprising goaltending stories will continue.

Special Teams

Vegas’ power play has been a problem area for the entire playoffs and their 4.75 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play is the worst among teams that advanced beyond the first round. The Golden Knights have 10 power play goals in 17 playoff games, with Eichel and Stone both accounting for three.

With 9.30 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four action, Florida’s power play has been a little more dangerous, tallying 12 goals in 16 playoff games, led by Tkachuk with four and Reinhart with three.

This power play edge may not fully materialize for Florida, however, because Vegas has been very disciplined in its approach, spending 4:22 per game shorthanded, compared to 5:29 per game for the Panthers.

It is a good thing that Vegas does not take many penalties, because they have been utterly helpless when trying to kill them, allowing the highest rate of shot attempts, shots, and expected goals against during four-on-five play in the postseason. They get bailed out by goaltending from time to time, but if the Golden Knights take penalties, that would just be asking for trouble.

Florida’s penalty killing has not been terribly effective either, allowing higher than average rates of shot attempts, shots, and expected goals against during four-on-five play. This could be an area of vulnerability for Florida, but only if Vegas can somehow turn their power play into a viable threat.

Conclusion

Vegas has been the more effective team during five-on-five play, but neither team has controlled play with real authority. Both the Panthers and Golden Knights have reached this point thanks in large part to outstanding goaltending and that puts a lot of pressure on Bobrovsky and Hill going into the Final. In a tightly contested series, Vegas’ superior depth gives them a slight edge. Golden Knights in 7.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: BOSTON BRUINS VS. FLORIDA PANTHERS – Late surging Panthers make interesting underdog despite gap in standings

Scott Cullen — Sat, 15 Apr 2023 16:48:55 +0000

SUNRISE, FL - JANUARY 28: Florida Panthers center Sam Bennett (9) faces off with Boston Bruins center Patrice Bergeron (37) during the game between the Boston Bruins and the Florida Panthers on Saturday, January 28, 2023 at FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

The Boston Bruins accrued 135 points, the most ever in a National Hockey League season, and they are the Stanley Cup favorites heading into the postseason. The Florida Panthers won the Presidents’ Trophy last season, but it was a much more difficult path to reach the playoffs this year.

Naturally, the Bruins are expected to win their first round series against the Panthers, but it could be closer than the standings might suggest.

Forwards

The Bruins’ attack is paced by right winger David Pastrnak, who led the team with 61 goals and 113 points, but he has a strong supporting cast. Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand may be getting older, but they are still dominant two-way players. Bergeron is 37 years old, and the Bruins controlled 63.2% of expected goals and 71.3% of goals during five-on-five play when he was on the ice. It’s preposterous.

Jake DeBrusk, Pavel Zacha, and David Krejci all had at least 50 points. Charlie Coyle, Taylor Hall, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Trent Frederic all provide additional scoring depth. This is one of Boston’s big advantages – scoring threats throughout the lineup.

Florida is more top heavy, with Matthew Tkachuk both the scoring and spiritual leader of the group, putting up 40 goals and 109 points with 123 penalty minutes. If the Panthers are going to pull off the upset, they will need Tkachuk to continue his outstanding play. After the trade deadline, he produced 12 goals and 30 points with 85 shots on goal in 19 games. Carter Verhaeghe, with a career-high 42 goals, and Aleksander Barkov, who topped 75 points for the fourth time in his career, are the other top scoring threats for the Panthers.

Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett are quality secondary scoring options and Bennett does have a knack for rising to the occasion in the postseason, putting up 21 points in 30 games over his past four playoff appearances. Bennett has also been out since March 20 with a lower-body injury, leaving his status questionable for the start of the playoffs. A supporting cast that includes Anthony Duclair, Anton Lundell, and Eetu Luostarinen has some potential but, overall, the Bruins have a deeper forward group.

Defense

Boston brings one of the best bluelines in the league to this series. Hampus Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy are both legitimate No. 1 defensemen worthy of Norris Trophy votes and having two players of that calibre is a luxury available to precious few teams. Adding Dmitry Orlov at the trade deadline only made the group stronger as it gives the Bruins another well-rounded blueliner who can move the puck but handle defensive responsibility, too. Matt Grzelcyk adds mobility while Brandon Carlo, Connor Clifton, and Derek Forbort bring more of a physical presence to the game. While the Bruins defense is strong, the defensive results since the trade deadline are relatively mediocre, with Boston ranking 14^th in all-situations shots against and expected goals against per 60 minutes. It’s not egregiously terrible, but it is not as dominant as the Bruins were earlier in the season.

Brandon Montour emerged as a premier offensive defenseman this season, finishing in a tie for fifth among blueliners with 73 points while playing a career-high 24:08 per game. Montour averaged more than three shots on goal per game, a big jump from his previous high of 2.21 shots per game, set in 2018-2019. Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad both logged more than 23 minutes per game, and they form a solid nucleus on the blueline. It’s beyond those three where the questions start to hit. Marc Staal, Radko Gudas, and Josh Mahura round out the top six and that looks like a defense that will eventually get exposed against Boston’s forwards. The Panthers ranked 22^nd in all-situations shots against and 23^rd in expected goals against per 60 minutes, so there is a defensive vulnerability that lingers over this Panthers team.

Goaltending

Maybe the biggest edge that the Bruins hold in this series is the potential goaltending advantage offered by Linus Ullmark, who is favored to win the Vezina Trophy after leading the league in wins (40), goals against average (1.89), and save percentage (.938). Jeremy Swayman gives the Bruins an excellent secondary option in goal, delivering a .920 save percentage for the season, but a .932 mark in 23 games after the calendar flipped to 2023.

While Boston has two strong options between the pipes, the Panthers have more question marks. AHL call-up Alex Lyon played big role in Florida’s late season push to the playoffs. He is a 30-year-old journeyman who had a .912 save percentage in a career-high 15 games but had a .943 save percentage in his last eight starts. Goaltending is unpredictable at the best of times, but just about anything can happen in small samples, and that could include Lyon making a name for himself by stonewalling the top team in the league. If Lyon turns into a kitty cat, a now-healthy Sergei Bobrovsky would be available for the Panthers. The 34-year-old was mediocre during the regular season and has a spotty playoff track record, but it would come as no surprise if Florida’s $10 million goaltender appeared in this series.

Special Teams

Both the Bruins and Panthers are above average with the man advantage. Boston scored 8.21 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play, which ranked eighth. Pastrnak led the Bruins with 18 power play goals, followed by Bergeron and Marchand, both with nine. Florida scored 7.92 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, ranking 10^th. Reinhart tallied 16 power play goals and Tkachuk added 14, while Barkov and Ekblad both contributed eight. The Panthers spent 5:26 per game at five-on-four, tops among all playoff teams.

Penalty killing is a significant advantage for the Bruins, as Boston ranked first in expected goals against and actual goals against per 60 minutes during four-on-five play. Their goaltending has been great, but Boston has allowed the lowest rate of shots against per 60 in those situations, too. Florida had slightly better than average penalty killing results, but that is still operating at a deficit against Boston.

Conclusion

As great as the regular season was for the Bruins, their possession numbers do not quite match their historically dominant place in the standings, so they are probably not as good as 135 points would suggest. At the same time, the Panthers had better possession numbers than their 92-point season would indicate and might be better than their point total. With Tkachuk leading the way, the Panthers could be a lively underdog if they can get quality goaltending. That ‘if’ is a big factor, though, so Boston is still the pick to advance. Bruins in 6.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Injuries provide opportunities – Blues resurrecting careers in Blais, Vrana and Kapanen

Scott Cullen — Fri, 31 Mar 2023 16:02:32 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the 2022-2023 NHL season is winding down and there are opportunities available for a rookie defenseman like Jake Sanderson to step up and the St. Louis Blues have been working quite successfully on resurrecting the careers of some forwards, including Sammy Blais, Jakub Vrana, and Kasperi Kapanen.

OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 22: Ottawa Senators Defenceman Jake Sanderson (85) before a face-off during third period National Hockey League action between the Arizona Coyotes and Ottawa Senators on October 22, 2022, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Ottawa Senators rookie blueliner Jake Sanderson has had an excellent first season in the NHL and looks like he should see a big role in the final few weeks of the season. Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun are both out, which opens the door for Sanderson to see first unit power play time and extra ice time has resulted in more production for the freshman defenseman. Sanderson played a career high 27:49 against Philadelphia on Thursday and has played more than 23 minutes in 22 games this season, recording 11 assists in those games, including seven helpers with the man advantage.

ST. LOUIS, MO - FEBRUARY 28: St. Louis Blues left wing Sammy Blais (79) looks for a shooting lane during a game between the Seattle Kraken and the St. Louis Blues on February 28 2023, at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis MO (Photo by Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire)

#2 Seeing what he has been able to accomplish since returning to St. Louis, it feels like the New York Rangers might have missed out on the best of Sammy Blais, who was primarily a spare part in his time with the Blueshirts. In his past 12 games, Blais has 15 points (6 G, 9 A) and 53 hits, making him a hugely valuable fantasy contributor and one that is widely available.

#3 Cast aside by the Detroit Red Wings, Jakub Vrana is quickly re-establishing his credentials as a top goal scorer. He scored a goal in Thursday’s 5-3 win at Chicago, making it nine goals and 43 shots on goal in 13 games since he was acquired by the Blues. He now has 23 goals in 44 games since the start of last season.

#4 While we’re hanging out praise in St. Louis, might as well include right winger Kasperi Kapanen, getting another chance to play up in the lineup after his progress stalled in Toronto and Pittsburgh. The 26-year-old speedster has nine points (5 G, 4 A), with 20 shots on goal while playing more than 17 minutes per game, in his past eight contests. With Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich injured, Kapanen has even moved to the middle, playing center between Blais and Jordan Kyrou.

#5 Although he is not as dangerous as he was during his prime years in New Jersey, the Islanders’ Kyle Palmieri is providing much-needed offense for a team making a push to the playoffs. Since the trade deadline, Palmieri has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 30 shots on goal in 12 games. He is up to 15 goals in 49 games and the last time he had more in a season was when he scored 25 in 2019-2020, his last full season with the Devils.

#6 The Nashville Predators remain in the playoff hunt, but they are missing star defenseman Roman Josi, who has an upper-body injury. Fortunately for the Preds, newly acquired Tyson Barrie is helping to fill the role of puck-moving blueliner, contributing seven points (2 G, 5 A) while averaging more than 21 minutes of ice time per game in his past eight games. Barrie’s ice time had dipped the past couple of seasons in Edmonton, but he has spent most of his career logging 21+ minutes of ice time per game, so he can handle this responsibility.

#7 In what has mostly been a lost season, the Philadelphia Flyers can take some solace in the development of young players. One of those players that is rising to the forefront is 23-year-old center Morgan Frost, who has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 16 shots on goal in his pats eight games. He has landed in the middle of a line with Joel Farabee and Owen Tippett, players that should be part of the Flyers’ future, so it would make sense to feed them big minutes the rest of the way.

#8 Production tends to run hot and cold for Edmonton Oilers right winger Kailer Yamamoto, but he seems to have found his groove right now, skating on a line with Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane, which is admittedly a pretty good spot for point production. In his past seven games, Yamamoto has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 12 shots on goal. While he has just 24 points in 52 games this season, he did have a career-high 41 points in 81 games last season, so there is some untapped offensive upside in the diminutive 24-year-old winger.

#9 Finding productive fourth line scoring is a rarity in the National Hockey League, but it appears that the Seattle Kraken have a reliable source in Daniel Sprong. In his past 11 games, the 26-year-old winger has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 25 shots on goal, while averaging just 10:38 of ice time per game. Among players that have played more than 500 five-on-five minutes, Kraken teammate Jared McCann and Montreal’s Cole Caufield are the only ones that have scored at a higher rate than Sprong’s 1.57 goals per 60 minutes.

#10 One of my favorite players to recommend late in the season has been Arizona Coyotes center Barrett Hayton, who is thriving on a line with Clayton Keller. In his past 12 games, Hayton has 16 points (7 G, 9 A) and 33 shots on goal while averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game. It has taken some time since he was drafted fifth overall in the 2018 Draft, but Hayton’s emergence in the second half of this season should give the Coyotes confidence that he the 22-year-old pivot can be a part of the long-term solution for the franchise.

#11 Injuries have taken their toll on Montreal Canadiens right winger Brendan Gallagher, not only keeping him out of the lineup for extended periods, but also diminishing what he can contribute when he is available to play. Since returning from his latest turn on the injured list, though, Gallagher is looking healthy and has produced four points (3 G, 1 A) and 16 shots on goal in six games. The Habs are cobbling together a functional lineup at this point, with so many players hurt, but Gallagher is getting first unit power play time in addition to skating on a line with Jake Evans and Sean Farrell, the 2020 fourth-round pick who was just signed out of Harvard.

#12 For a defenseman who has never had 25 points in a season, Florida Panthers blueliner Radko Gudas still has a measure of fantasy value because he is a man with a particular set of skills. He hits and hits a lot. In his past 17 games, Gudas has a modest total of four assists, but he also has 90 hits, which works out to 5.3 hits per game. With 280 hits, he ranks third, just behind Luke Schenn (283) and Tanner Jeannot (281).

#13 The season has been undeniably rough for the Anaheim Ducks, but it is not going to get any better with Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry out of the lineup. Zegras is injured and Terry is staying in Anaheim due to the premature birth of his child. Isaac Lundestrom is getting first line duty at center but has gone 14 games without a point. If there is fantasy value to be found in the Ducks lineup, look to Jakob Silfverberg, who has four assists in his past five games, or Derek Grant, who has six points (2 G, 4 A) in his past 10 games. Okay, those are really only options for the deepest of leagues.

#14 With Buffalo Sabres star center Tage Thompson dealing with an upper-body injury, Casey Mittelstadt is getting a shot on the top line between Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch. Mittelstadt could stand to shoot the puck more often but does have four assists in his past six games, giving him a career high 44 points (10 G, 34 A) for the season.

#15 Since Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Carter Hart is dealing with a lower-body injury, that should mean more action for Felix Sandstrom and potentially Samuel Ersson, too. Sandstrom has not shown much in a backup role this season but does have a .900 save percentage in five starts since the trade deadline. Ersson has not played for the Flyers since allowing seven goals on 36 shots at New Jersey on February 25, but he had a few standout performances, too, including a 28-save shutout against Buffalo. Speaking of Buffalo, a better option for goaltending late in the season could be Devon Levi, who is set to make his debut for the Sabres on Friday. Levi was a seventh-round pick in 2020 but just wrapped up a college career in which he had a .942 save percentage in 66 games for Northeastern.

#16 Injuries have caught up to the San Jose Sharks, with Alexander Barbanov, Andreas Johnsson, and Evgeny Svechnikov all out of action. That has opened the door for Jacob Peterson, Martin Kaut, and Thomas Bordeleau to land top-six roles in the San Jose lineup. Peterson has three assists in four games since he was acquired from the Dallas Stars. Kaut, claimed off waivers from the Colorado Avalanche earlier in the season, has four points (2 G, 2 A) with 11 shots on goal in his past five games. Bordeleau recorded an assist in his first game of the season for the Sharks after tallying 41 points (22 G, 19 A) in 64 AHL games. None of these players look like stars, but they are getting a great opportunity at the end of this season to show that they belong in the league.

#17 The top two rookie scorers since the trade deadline play for the Arizona Coyotes. Matias Maccelli has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and is followed by Jack McBain, who has 10 points (3 G, 7 A). They have most recently been skating with Lawson Crouse on the second line in addition to sharing second unit power play time. Maccelli now ranks second among all rookie scorers this season, with 43 points (10 G, 33 A) in 57 games.

#18 Another rookie forward contributing late in the season is Buffalo’s J.J. Peterka, who has nine points (2 G, 7 A) and 18 shots on goal in his past nine games. He has been skating on a line with Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn, with the 22-year-old Cozens counting as the old vet on the line.

#19 Minnesota Wild winger Matt Boldy leads the NHL with 12 goals in 13 games since the trade deadline. His 0.92 goals per game ranks first, ahead of Clayton Keller and Leon Draisaitl (0.79), Matthew Tkachuk (0.77), Auston Matthews and Alex Ovechkin (0.75). When it comes to points per game, Draisaitl leads with 1.93 points per game (11 G, 16 A in 14 GP), followed by Connor McDavid (1.86), Tkachuk (1.69), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1.64), Cale Makar and J.T. Miller (1.62).

#20 Matthews has talked about how a hand injury had negatively impacted his production earlier in the season, but he sure seems to be firing on all cylinders now. Matthews has 67 shots on goal in 12 games since the deadline, an average of 5.58 per game, which leads the league. Before that, he was averaging 4.15 shots on goal per game, so that is a dramatic improvement, though it is admittedly skewed by his launching 15 shots on goal against Carolina on February 25. That is remarkable because the Hurricanes are, easily, the best team in the league when it comes to shot suppression, allowing an average of 25.7 shots against per 60 minutes. The rest of the shots per game leaders since the trade deadline: David Pastrnak (5.29), Viktor Arvidsson (4.75), Brady Tkachuk (4.71), Nathan MacKinnon (4.47), Jack Hughes (4.40), Matthew Tkachuk (4.38), Carter Verhaeghe (4.30), Sidney Crosby (4.21), and Jake Guentzel (4.14). Many of those names are to be expected, though Arvidsson and Verhaeghe are hanging in elite company. Crosby has clearly become more aggressive with his approach as the Penguins desperately cling to a playoff spot.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Dach, Mikheyev and Hagel Taking Advantage of New Opportunities, Major Injuries in Edmonton and Colorado, Surprising Goaltenders offering Value

Scott Cullen — Fri, 11 Nov 2022 18:36:21 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, players like Kirby Dach, Ilya Mikheyev, and Brandon Hagel taking advantage of new opportunities, major injuries in Edmonton and Colorado, plus some surprising goaltenders that could offer value right now.

MONTREAL, QC - NOVEMBER 05: Montreal Canadiens center Kirby Dach (77) plays the puck during the Las Vegas Golden Knights versus the Montreal Canadiens game on November 05, 2022, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The Chicago Blackhawks sure seemed to move on quickly from Kirby Dach, the 21-year-old center who was the third pick in the 2019 Draft, when he was traded to the Montreal Canadiens at the 2022 Draft. Dach did not have instant success in Montreal but seems to have found a great spot on the right wing of the Habs’ top line alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. In the past six games, Dach has delivered nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 12 shots on goal, and is starting to show the talent that made him such a high pick in the first place.

#2 Ilya Mikheyev busted out for the Toronto Maple Leafs last season, scoring a career-high 21 goals in just 53 games. He signed in Vancouver as a free agent and has had an instant impact skating on a line with Elias Pettersson and fellow Russian winger Andrei Kuzmenko. In his past seven games, Mikheyev has produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal. For the season, he is playing 17:20 per game, up more than two minutes per game from his ice time in Toronto last season.

#3 The Tampa Bay Lightning brought in winger Brandon Hagel last season to provide forward depth and he was effective in that role. With the Lightning forward group thinned out by injuries and offseason departures, there is now an opportunity for Hagel to contribute more and he is taking advantage of that. He has produced 11 points (5 G, 6 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past eight games, landing on the top line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. Anyone getting a chance to play with those two is going to be worth a look and Hagel’s production gives him a chance to stick there for a while.

#4 The Edmonton Oilers are going to have to make do without left winger Evander Kane for the next 3-4 months after he had his wrist accidentally stepped on by Tampa Bay Lightning winger Pat Maroon. Kane is such an important player for Edmonton and there is not likely going to be a trade to make up for his absence. That means that internal options are the way forward. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are important as the proven complementary pieces in the top six, but Jesse Puljujarvi is getting another crack higher on the depth chart and rookie Dylan Holloway is looking at the best opportunity of his young career. Holloway, the 14^th pick in the 2020 Draft, played a career-high 15:15 in Thursday’s loss at Carolina.

#5 The Colorado Avalanche have been without left winger Valeri Nichushkin since October 25, but it has now been announced that he will miss a month of action after having ankle surgery. Nichushkin was off to an incredible start, with 12 points (7 G, 5 A) in seven games before getting hurt. With Nichushkin and captain Gabriel Landeskog out, Colorado is trying a second line Alex Newhook, Evan Rodrigues, and Martin Kaut. While Newhook and Kaut might have longer range potential, Rodrigues is the one with the most fantasy value right now. He has five points (3 G, 2 A) during a four-game point streak, and he is getting first unit power play reps for the Avalanche.

#6 For years, Dallas Stars left winger Jamie Benn was a premier fantasy hockey performer, scoring a bunch and adding big hit totals to give him elite value at a relatively shallow position. Benn is no longer the same kind of dynamic presence, but he can still turn up the heat from time to time. He had a hat trick last Saturday against Edmonton and has 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 13 games this season, even though his 14:06 average time on ice is the lowest of his career.

#7 New Jersey Devils winger Miles Wood missed nearly all of last season, limited to just three games due to hip surgery. He has returned to action in fine form this season. Although he is skating on the Devils’ fourth line, Wood has been productive, with eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 25 shots on goal in the past six games. Wood has never scored more than 32 points in a season, so keep expectations in check, but his increasing offensive contributions could make him useful in deeper leagues.

#8 Seattle Kraken center Yanni Gourde did not record a point in the first six games of the season, but he has pulled out of that slump to produce eight points (2 G, 6 A) in the past seven games. Gourde brings energy to an effective line with Jared McCann and Brandon Tanev.

#9 Gourde is not the only Seattle center offering good value. Fourth-line center Morgan Geekie is starting to contribute offensively in a way that he never has before in his NHL career. In his past eight games, Geekie has eight points (4 G, 4 A) despite averaging just 10:08 of ice time per game. That lack of playing time makes Geekie an unlikely add in most fantasy leagues, but in deep leagues, it is worth keeping an eye on anyone who puts up a point per game over an eight-game stretch. Maybe that prompts a bigger role for Geekie and if more ice time comes his way, that could change the calculation on his fantasy value.

#10 Although the goals have not come so easily this season, Los Angeles Kings right winger Trevor Moore continues to provide secondary offense. Moore broke through for a career high 17 goals and 48 points last season but has just two goals on 52 shots on goal through 16 games. Moore has added nine assists, but his shot rate is especially notable and suggests that he could be a good buy-low option because he is not likely to keep scoring on less than four percent of his shots on goal.

#11 Arizona Coyotes left winger Matias Maccelli is still considered a rookie after he played 23 games last season. He has continued to develop, even on a bad Coyotes squad, and while he does have eight points (1 G, 7 A) in his past nine games, Maccelli also has just six shots on goal in that time, so it is difficult to expect sustained production.

#12 With Philipp Grubauer out of the lineup, the Seattle Kraken have turned to Martin Jones in goal and the veteran netminder has responded to the challenge, posting a .940 save percentage in his past six starts. Jones has been a below-average goaltender for each of the past four seasons, so modest expectations are the way to go, but if he can provide league average goaltending for the Kraken, the wins will follow.

#13 Florida Panthers goaltender Spencer Knight was supposed to challenge Sergei Bobrovsky for the starting job last season, but it never materialized as Knight finished the season with a .908 save percentage. It was fine, but it’s fair to say the Panthers had higher hopes. After a 40-save shutout against Carolina this week, Knight has a .925 save percentage in six starts this season and that kind of performance is how the backup goaltender challenges for a No. 1 job, especially when Sergei Bobrovsky, the starter, has a .897 save percentage in eight starts.

#14 It is not easy to accrue goaltending value as the starting goaltender for the Arizona Coyotes, but Karel Vejmelka is giving it a shot. In his past six appearances, Vejmelka has four wins and a .944 save percentage, which will play just fine. Wins are going to be a challenge for the Coyotes all season, and Vejmelka is not going to keep stopping 94% of the shots that he faces, but if he is better than league average, he could have fantasy appeal.

#15 New Jersey Devils left winger Ondrej Palat is out 8-10 weeks with a groin injury and the long-term nature of that absence could give a winger like Tomas Tatar the opportunity he needs to maximize his production. Tatar has excellent underlying numbers, with the Devils controlling more than 63% of 5-on-5 score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts with Tatar on the ice. He has chipped in nine points (2 G, 7 A) in the past nine games and a consistent spot alongside Nico Hischier is a good place for Tatar to be.

#16 When Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov suffered a knee injury against Boston last Saturday, it left Toronto in a dire situation in goal. Since Matt Murray was already injured, Erik Kallgren moved into the starting role and the Maple Leafs signed Keith Petruzzelli to be his backup. Petruzzelli, 23, has played 23 games in the ECHL and 11 games in the American Hockey League since finishing four years at Quinnipiac University. While Murray has returned to practice and could be ready for game action again soon, Kallgren has a .890 save percentage in six appearances for the Maple Leafs this season, a .889 save percentage in 20 career NHL games. We knew goaltending would be a major question mark for the Maple Leafs this season, but that question is getting asked loudly very early in the season.

#17 Not only are the Colorado Avalanche dealing with injuries up front, but the defending Stanley Cup champs are also missing Sam Girard and Bowen Byram on the blueline. As a result, Jacob MacDonald and Kurtis MacDermid were in the lineup for Thursday’s win against Nashville. Although MacDonald tends not to play a lot of minutes in the NHL, he has been very productive in the AHL and if Girard and Byram miss significant time, MacDonald might have enough opportunity to be a meaningful contributor to the Avalanche.

#18 Florida Panthers defenseman Radko Gudas remains a rare fantasy hockey contributor. While he has a respectable four points (1 G, 3 A) in 14 games this season, any scoring he does is really a bonus. Gudas has 26 blocked shots and 46 hits, making him one of four defensemen to have at least 20 blocked shots and 40 hits. The others are Jacob Trouba, Connor Clifton, and Jeff Petry. Trouba and Gudas are the only ones in that quartet averaging more than 2.0 shots on goal per game. With the Panthers a little desperate on defense, especially while Aaron Ekblad has been out of the lineup, Gudas is playing a career high 20:52 per game this season.

#19 There is a race between two lines for the most productive during five-on-five play this season. Vegas’ trio of Chandler Stephenson, Jack Eichel, and Mark Stone has scored 6.42 goals per 60 minutes. That comes in just ahead of the Dallas Stars line of Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, and Jason Robertson, at 6.31 goals per 60 minutes. Among lines that have played at least 100 five-on-five minutes together, they are far ahead of No. 3 – the Islanders trio of Anders Lee, Brock Nelson and Anthony Beauvillier, which has scored 4.26 goals per 60 minutes. While some of these players are stars that are not going to be available, Stephenson, Lee, and Nelson are productive players that can be found on the waiver wire in about half of leagues.

#20 The Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers, and Dallas Stars have the top three power plays in terms of goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play. None of those are particularly surprising, but No. 4 is the Arizona Coyotes. That’s a stunner. Matias Maccelli leads the Coyotes with six power play points, one ahead of Clayton Keller, and Nick Ritchie, as well as defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and J.J. Moser.

The Avalanche are humming along at a clip of 15.74 goals per 60 minutes. By way of comparison, the top rate last season belonged to the Toronto Maple Leafs, at 10.23 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play, so the Avs are about 50% better than the top rate in the league last season.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – FLORIDA PANTHERS – NHL Player Profiles

Shawn Ferris – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 16:18:12 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - JANUARY 21: Florida Panthers center Aleksander Barkov (16) skates up ice during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on January 21, 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Aleksander Barkov

While the two-way center’s season was shortened to 67 games due to injury, 2021-22 was the best we’ve seen from Barkov yet. He was able to convert on a bit of a shooting binge, netting 39 goals, while adding 49 assists. As a career-long Panther, he was a driving force behind the offensive machine in Sunrise last season, but he was also the shutdown force that the Panthers needed up late in games. At 6-foot-3, he has both the size and the smarts to be effective in the interior in all three zones. Barkov also has impressive stick skills, intercepting passes and forcing turnovers on the boards. Plus, his abilities translate to the bumper on the powerplay as well as penalty killing duties. Barkov’s career-high in points was 96 in 2018-19, and he’ll be looking to break 100 points for the first time in his career in 2022-23.

Matthew Tkachuk

The twenty-four-year-old from Scottsdale, Arizona is one of the leagues premier young forwards, and he showed that last season. Everything seemed to click on a line with Elias Lindholm and Johnny Gaudreau. In close to 1,000 minutes at 5-on-5 last season, the trio outscored their opponents 73-31. With Johnny Gaudreau heading to Columbus, Tkachuk levered his rights as a restricted free agent to pull off a sign-and-trade to Florida. Tkachuk is a coach’s dream. He loves to get himself engaged on the forecheck, and he hunts after rebounds too. He might be known for his antics after the play, but he’s effective between the whistles as well. He put the puck in the back of the net 42 times last season. 11 of those were on the powerplay where he was a merchant around the net. With his dogged ability to retrieve pucks, complemented by his finishing and playmaking skills, he is a force to be reckoned with.

Sam Reinhart

For a recent second overall pick, Sam Reinhart has generally fallen out of the spotlight. After playing in Buffalo for the first seven seasons of his career, Reinhart was sent to Florida to play with the only player picked ahead of him in the 2014 draft. Reinhart doesn’t have much flash in his game. He’s a responsible player defensively and stays out of the box. He’s production is also quiet. He scored 33 goals and 49 assists in 78 games last season. He converted on 16 of his 40 shots on goal on the powerplay last season – a staggering but unsustainable percentage. His intelligence as a playmaker, as well as his finishing ability, always made him a threat to be dangerous on the powerplay. Unlike in Buffalo, he had the tools surrounding him to see that come to life. Don’t be surprised if his production dips back down a bit this season, but you can depend on a solid two-way performance.

Sam Bennett

The 2014 fourth overall pick was traded to Florida from Calgary in 2021 after a disappointing start to his NHL career. Playing in the bottom-six, Bennett’s future looked bleak. Only in his rookie season had he ever broken 30 points. In his first season in Florida, he hit career highs in goals and assists with 28 and 21 respectively, as well as hitting his 100-career goal and assist milestones. Unlike in years past where he was given a weaker set of teammates, Bennett spent close to two-thirds of his 5-on-5 minutes with Jonathan Huberdeau. In a more offensive role where he wouldn’t be asked to drive the play as much, Bennett was able to flourish. As long as Bennett is given the same offensive usage under Paul Maurice, one could expect this to continue. However, it remains a question mark as to whether or not Bennett could handle a more similar role to what he had in Calgary again.

Carter Verhaeghe

With the Tampa Bay Lightning having too many riches, Carter Verhaeghe signed with Florida in the fall of 2021. After a breakout first season with the Panthers in 2021, Verhaeghe continued that success in 2021-22 with 24 goals and 31 assists in 78 games. Verhaeghe brings a lot of his value in the transition game. He’s effective with the puck, exiting his own zone and entering the opponent’s zone. He’s also terrific at angling the play into danger on the forecheck, and is committed on the backcheck. He’s also a terrific finisher, converting on 51 of his 331 career shots on goal. He’s a terrific complementary winger for Aleksander Barkov. He does need to work on staying out of the box a bit more as he took 24 minor penalties last season while only drawing 14.

Anthony Duclair

Anthony Duclair was a misfit toy prior to signing in Florida in the fall of 2020. He spent time with five different teams before turning twenty-five. The main criticism with Duclair has always been the defensive side of the game. How much of it was a lack of commitment as opposed to his struggle to execute lies with his coaches. However, the Panthers were much more focused on the offensive treasures that Duclair holds. His speed and skill is undeniable. Duclair is a threat on the rush as well as offensive zone play. With a career-high 18.6% shooting percentage last season, Duclair was able to score 31 goals playing mostly alongside Jonathan Huberdeau and Sam Bennett. The exit of the former may hurt Duclair at 5-on-5, but may also open up the opportunity for a bigger role on the powerplay as well.

Anton Lundell

Despite not being in the Calder conversation, Anton Lundell had a terrific rookie season. At twenty years of age, the 6-foot-1 center scored 18 goals and 26 assists in just over 1,000 minutes. Despite his youth, Lundell was given a third line center role which included a healthy dose of defensive assignments. Lundell’s intelligence, creativity, and comfort in tight areas is what caught the eyes of scouts when he was a teenager. The one drawback to his game was that he lacked the skating abilities to be a high-end NHL center. In his draft-plus-two season, he was trusted by the Panthers’ coaching staff to take on close to 12% defensive zone starts and 150 shorthanded minutes. Given his ability to impact the game in many different ways, it’s unlikely he’ll suffer from a sophomore slump.

Nick Cousins

After spending two seasons with the Nashville Predators, Nick Cousins found himself signing with the Florida Panthers this July. The 5-foot-11 winger has never been a producer in the NHL. He has only recorded 10 goals twice and has yet to clear 30 points once in his first eight seasons. What keeps the twenty-nine-year-old around is his dependability on the ice. Despite not having blow-it-by-you speed, Cousins is an effective player in transition. He feels comfortable carrying the puck into the offensive zone, something that has also helped earn him time on various powerplay units. He’s also a decent forechecker and backchecker. He also draws far more penalties than he takes, drawing 70 more minor penalties than he’s taken in 444 career games. With many offensively talented forwards ahead of Cousins, we’ll see if he picks up penalty killing duties or if he has his special teams time limited in Florida.

Rudolfs Balcers

After spending two seasons with the team, the San Jose Sharks decided not to qualify the Latvian forward, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent where he signed with Florida. The former fifth round pick won’t jump off the sheet at you. He has 57 points in 153 career games. At times, he can leave you wanting a bit more. He seems to have a fair shot, but doesn’t seem to shoot enough. However, he has very few errors in his own zone and excels in transition, somewhat of a theme with the Panthers. While the Sharks seemed to want to take a rugged, do-it-yourself culture in their rebuild, Balcers didn’t fit that culture. With the Panthers, he hopes to find success starting in a third- or fourth-line role where he feels he can fit into the system more. There is an opening on the second line alongside Bennett and Reinhart but will have some competition for it.

DEFENSE

Aaron Ekblad

Aaron Ekblad was on his way to a Norris contention type of season before a midseason injury took away quite a few games from him. However, after putting up 57 points in 61 games in 2021-22, he’ll be looking to have a go at the likes of Cale Makar and Roman Josi this season. Ekblad has offensive instincts that only a few defensemen have. He takes high-quality shots and converts on them too. He’ll likely score his 100^th goal this season as long as nothing catastrophic happens. He’s also terrific defensively, closing gaps in the neutral zone, breaking up cycles in the defensive zone, and moving the puck up ice after he retrieves loose pucks. Ekblad will be losing his defensive partner in MacKenzie Weegar, but as an elite defenseman, and with such a great cast of forwards, Ekblad should be fine.

Brandon Montour

When Brandon Montour was sent to Florida, he had trouble fitting in on his previous teams. His poor defensive play caused headaches for his coaching staff. Despite being a player that was terrific with the puck on his stick, particularly in transition, he was a completely different player without the puck. The Panthers’ coaching staff didn’t try to change that, but embraced it instead. While Montour is still weak defensively, he has complete freedom to take risks and make plays. The coaching staff also put him in offensive situations, including having 16.1% of his shifts start in the offensive zone compare to 6.2% in the defensive zone. The result was a career-high 11 goals and 37 points last season. He has regained the reputation he once had as a young defenseman with the Ducks, and will look to fight to play alongside Aaron Ekblad if he can this season.

Gustav Forsling

If you pay close attention, the Swede will leave your mouth wide-open in amazement at times. Forsling is a steady, quiet transition defenseman. He sees the ice very well when breaking out the puck or on neutral zone regroups. Surrounded by a forward corps that transitions well, Forsling found himself at home in Florida. Just like many Panthers, Forsling scored a career-high 10 goals and 27 assists in 71 games last season. Since heading to Florida, he’s also seen much more penalty killing duties. His skating and smarts help him be successful in that role, closing gaps on entry, retrieving pucks, as well as occasionally setting up a shorthanded chance. He may be overshadowed, but watch for the finer details in Forsling’s game that make him a fun player to watch.

Radko Gudas

Radko Gudas is known by NHL fans for his beard and his ability to throw the body around. He’s also an effective player, particularly defensively. For a player who is great at moving the player up the ice like Forsling, Gudas is a great complementary player. While the occasional big hit will make the highlight reel, Gudas has incredible gap control shift after shift, forcing his opponents to play the puck in deep. Gudas also uses his physicality to break up cycles in his own end as well as clear out the front of his own net. The drawback in Gudas’ game has always been offensively. His insistence on taking low-quality shots from the point can be predatory in nature, especially when playing with a good setoff forwards.

Marc Staal

With the Florida Panthers losing in the second round in four games despite winning the President’s Trophy, they were due to add a veteran. Thirty-six-year-old Marc Staal was their guy. While a once very effective defenseman who logged a lot of minutes for the New York Rangers, Staal isn’t quite that player any more. In Detroit, he played a simple depth role, only seeing the ice a little over 17 minutes per game. Staal will stay within his own bounds, playing much more of a defensive game on the third pair. He will also pick up penalty killing duties given his intelligence as well as his courage to get in shooting lanes. If you don’t hear Marc Staal’s name on a given night, that will probably be a good thing as most of his value will be in the room and off of the ice.

GOALTENDING

Sergei Bobrovsky

Still feels a little surreal that Florida handed out what might very well be the last behemoth goaltending contract we’ll see for the foreseeable future, particularly given what they’ve gotten from Sergei Bobrovsky as a result. The now-33-year-old starter, who looked to be one of the most impressive goaltending talents in the league when he hit free agency in the summer of 2019, has flirted with the upper tier of ‘good’ for all three of the seasons he’s played down in South Beach.

Luckily, Florida hasn’t needed him to be anything more than that, though, and he’s failed to really look like a mistake for the team that drafted him outside of the first few months that he played in Florida. It took some time for him to adapt his game to Florida’s style, which thrives on perimeter defense and opening up sightlines rather than bodying snipers out of the way of rebounds. But once he got into the swing of things, he’s been average at worst and quietly dangerous at best; he’s likely not worth his contract when looked at in a vacuum, but he hasn’t been such a boon on the team’s night-by-night outcomes that fans are begging for a buyout. And while his regular season performance was just fine, with a few too many nights that saw him struggle to recover in tie for second shots that slipped past him and into the net, his post-season performance – which wasn’t Conn Smythe worthy, but was reasonably consistent – suggested that the experience he brings to the table should still be a value to the Panthers while they wait for Spencer Knight to fully get his skates under him.

Projected starts: 40-45

Spencer Knight

It was hard to fall in love with Spencer Knight’s premier performance during the 2022-23 season. After dazzling scouts with his mature-beyond-his-years style and seemingly unshakeable confidence at the junior and collegiate levels, the American-born first rounder fell a little flat in his first full season of NHL hockey. He didn’t look lost, but he did look inconsistent – which almost felt a little more disconcerting after so many years of performances that suggested Knight didn’t know the meaning of second-guessing his own intuition. He hit right around the league average in quality start percentage, but the whopping six starts he recorded that dipped below the .850 save percentage threshold made it hard to feel quite as good about the games where he did hold his own.

His struggles weren’t necessarily hard to diagnose. When he fell short, it was in games where his opponents seemed to get a read on his rhythm early on and capitalized on it, throwing shots into holes that they predicted he would leave open based on the structure and speed of his game. He still read his opponents well and didn’t necessarily look like he was mistiming his game or falling into a panicked habit of sloppy movements or easy cheats. But he also didn’t seem to be comfortable enough evaluating the timing of redirects and NHL shooter decision-making to get creative and add an element of surprise to his technique; he lacked that extra gear that made him so special at the lower levels, allowing teams to beat him with trickier shots and derail his game early on. That’s something he should be able to outgrow as he gains more experience, especially given how effectively he’s studied timing and shooting in the past. But it still felt a little disappointing to see America’s most hotly-anticipated young talent come into the league with a fizzle rather than a bang.

Projected starts: 40-45

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK: Under the Radar Fantasy All-Stars – A Full Team of Value Picks

Scott Cullen — Tue, 06 Sep 2022 21:02:15 +0000

FANTASY ALL-STARS

Finding excess value is the goal for every fantasy hockey draft.

Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Cale Makar are outstanding players and the opportunity to draft one could make or break your fantasy draft, but they do not offer much potential to exceed their preseason value because their preseason value is already at the top of the league. There is upward mobility, of course, but not relative to the potential value that can occur further down the draft board.

It is the players that do not go at the top of the draft that offer the opportunity find surplus value, players with an opportunity to outperform their draft position, and those are the players that can also make a difference for your fantasy squad.

There are several paths to finding players who might be candidates for the Fantasy All-Star team.

Breakout Performers

Last season was the highest scoring season since 1995-1996, with an average of 3.11 goals per game for each team. There were 60 players that played at least 50 games and scored more than 0.90 points per game in 2021-2022. That list included the likes of Tyler Bertuzzi, Nick Schmaltz, Chris Kreider, Jesper Bratt, Dylan Larkin, Timo Meier, and Jordan Kyrou – players that were exceeding their previous levels of production. Successfully hitting on a few of those players can change the trajectory of your fantasy team.

Bouncing Back from Injury

One of the factors that will drop a player’s draft value is uncertainty that comes when a player is returning from injury. It can be tough to trust that a player who missed significant time in a season will suddenly be healthy, but that is where the value proposition exists. If the injuries are not chronic, maybe all it takes is a healthy season for a player to reach his potential.

Playing Percentages

Over the years we have learned that statistical aberrations tend not to hold, so if a player typically scores on 12% of his shots on goal, but suddenly scores on 7% one season, the most likely scenario, all things being equal, is that he will rebound to his career norms. Same goes for on-ice shooting percentage – how a player’s linemates finish when he is on the ice. Players coming off seasons with low percentages are prime value plays.

New Opportunities

These can come if a player changes teams but even while remaining on the same team a player might move up the depth chart, get better linemates, see more power play time. These are all considerations related to why a player might be able to surpass expectations with their production.

Dylan Larkin, Jesper Bratt, Jared McCann, Rasmus Dahlin, and Noah Dobson were among the Fantasy All-Stars to pay the biggest dividends last season. Here are the Fantasy All-Stars for the 2022-2023 season, players that should be able to offer excess value relative to where they are selected.

Hitting on a few of these players will give your team a better shot at taking home a fantasy championship.

FORWARDS

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 26: Devils center Jack Hughes (86) looks for a pass while skating behind the net with the puck during the New Jersey Devils versus Washington Capitals National Hockey League game on March 26, 2022 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey

This is not digging deep on the sleeper scale to suggest the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 Draft, but Hughes has not had a full breakout season just yet. He was on his way last season, putting up 56 points in 49 games, including 48 points in 36 games after Christmas. The Devils have been upgrading their supporting cast and 21-year-old Hughes has shown marked improvement in three NHL seasons. If he can stay healthy this year, 100 points is not out of the question.

Jakub Vrana, LW, Detroit

Limited to just 26 games last season as he recovered from shoulder surgery, Vrana has scored 21 goals in 37 games for the Red Wings since he was acquired from the Washington Capitals. He has scored on 21.6% of his shots on goal with Detroit, so that is not going to last, but a full season for Vrana, with an improving supporting cast around him, should set him up for the most productive season of his career.

Tyler Toffoli, RW, Calgary

Traded from Montreal to Calgary last season, Toffoli finished with 49 points in 74 games, his most since 2015-2016, when he played for Los Angeles. He is 30 years old and yet still offers potential value this season because he just might get the opportunity to play with Jonathan Huberdeau on the Flames’ top line. Huberdeau elevated the production of his linemates in Florida, including former Flames center Sam Bennett, and could very well do the same for Toffoli in Calgary.

Boone Jenner, C, Columbus

Despite never scoring 50 points in an NHL season, Jenner has offered fantasy value because of a decent shot rate that leads to goals, and he has had five seasons with more than 150 hits, so he fills in some peripheral categories, too. Jenner just might get a chance to center a line with Columbus’ big free agent acquisition, Johnny Gaudreau. If that happens, then Jenner will have more scoring opportunities than ever before.

DENVER, CO - JUNE 18: Colorado Avalanche left wing Artturi Lehkonen (62) skates during the Stanley Cup Finals game 2 between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado on June 18, 2022. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

Artturi Lehkonen, LW, Colorado

Traded from Montreal to Colorado last season, the 27-year-old winger was an integral part of the Avalanche Stanley Cup victory. Not only did Lehkonen play a bigger role in Colorado, finishing with 19 goals and 38 points last season, both career highs, he then went on to contribute eight goals and 14 points in 20 playoff games. Now Lehkonen seems set for a second-line role with power play time on an elite team.

Sean Couturier, C, Philadelphia

Back surgery sidelined the Flyers center after 29 games last season and even though he had solid shot rates (2.72 shots per game), Couturier scored on just 7.6% of his shots, his lowest shooting percentage since 2012-2013, and his on-ice shooting percentage of 6.0% was the lowest of his career. If Couturier is healthy and the percentages bounce back, Couturier’s point totals could get back on track.

Seth Jarvis, RW, Carolina

The Carolina Hurricanes were so good last season that they could ease Jarvis into the lineup. The rookie winger had 20 points in his first 46 games, playing 13:19 per game, but as the season progressed, Jarvis earned a bigger role and he finished the regular season with 20 points in his last 22 games, playing 15:03 per game in that stretch, with a regular spot on the Hurricanes’ top line. It is entirely fair to expect the 20-year-old to continue his career ascent in Year 2.

Brendan Gallagher, RW, Montreal

After scoring seven goals and 24 points in 56 games last season, it is a good time to buy low on the crease-crashing Canadiens winger who has two 30-goal seasons to his credit. Gallagher scored on just 4.9% of his shots last season, easily the worst mark of his career, even though he ranked eighth in high danger shot attempts per 60 minutes among players to play at least 500 5-on-5 minutes. The Canadiens should be better than they were last season and Gallagher can bring much more to the table than he did in 2021-2022.

Lawson Crouse, LW, Arizona

The 25-year-old power forward scored a career-high 20 goals and 34 points last season, even though a broken hand limited him to 65 games. Crouse has also recorded at least 150 hits in four consecutive seasons and given the state of the Coyotes depth chart, there is not much competition for ice time, so Crouse ought to have ample opportunity to play an elevated role. With enough offensive production, Crouse’s hit totals can make a difference.

Alexis Lafreniere, LW, N.Y. Rangers

The top pick in the 2020 Draft, Lafreniere has not set the league ablaze, but that is in large part due to lack of power play production. 50 of his 52 career points have come at even strength and his 31 even-strength goals in the past two seasons is tied for 66^th in the league – the same number as Claude Giroux, one more than John Tavares. There is an opportunity for Lafreniere to move up the Rangers’ depth chart this season and with any kind of improvement on the power play, his production could spike.

Phil Kessel, RW, Vegas

He will turn 35 before the season starts and has not missed a game since the 2009-2010 season, but Kessel also scored just eight goals last season while scoring on a career-low 4.6% of his shots on goal. Moving to a competitive Vegas team ought to keep Kessel motivated and they will need him to provide secondary offense. Given his age and last season’s scoring woes, he should be a late-round bargain.

Casey Mittelstadt, C, Buffalo

Progress has been uneven for the eighth pick in the 2017 Draft, as he has managed 80 points in 195 career games. How is that possibly going to lead to him making a difference this season? He did score on a career-low 7.6% of his shots on goal last season and is still considered skilled enough to have an opportunity to play on a scoring line and the power play for the Sabres. He is a late-round consideration, and maybe only for deep leagues, but there is a chance that Mittelstadt bursts through with more production than he has ever had in an NHL season which, at this point, has topped out at 25 points.

DEFENSE

SAN JOSE, CA - APRIL 02: Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen (4) carries the puck during the NHL game between the San Jose Sharks and the Dallas Stars on April 2, 2022 at SAP Center in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Matt Cohen/Icon Sportswire)

Miro Heiskanen, Dallas

The 23-year-old Stars blueliner has earned a strong reputation for his all-around play, but has not exploded offensively, at least in the regular season. He finished last season with a career-high 36 points in 70 games, but with John Klingberg leaving as a free agent, the first-unit power play job is there for Heiskanen. During the 2020 bubble playoffs, Heiskanen was the top scoring defenseman in the league with 26 points in 27 games, so a full season as the Stars’ No. 1 option on the blueline should send him to new heights.

Jeff Petry, Pittsburgh

A productive veteran defenseman who has recorded at least 40 points in a season four times in his career plus he has had seven seasons in which he tallied more than 100 hits and 100 blocked shots. But last season was mostly miserable for Petry in Montreal. He had six points in 38 games with Dominique Ducharme as head coach but improved markedly once Martin St. Louis took over, producing 21 points in 30 games to finish the season. Having averaged more than 22 minutes per game in each of the past six seasons, Petry can handle big minutes on the Penguins blueline and his ability to contribute more than points should solidify his fantasy appeal.

TORONTO, ON - MARCH 08: Seattle Kraken Defenceman Vince Dunn (29) skates with the puck during the NHL regular season game between the Seattle Kraken and the Toronto Maple Leafs on March 8, 2022, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

Vince Dunn, Seattle

Even though he tied a career high with 35 points last season, after being named a Fantasy All-Star, Dunn did not live up to expectations in his first season with the Kraken. He was supposed to quarterback the top power play unit and that would give his point production a boost, but the underwhelming Kraken power play scored on just 8.9% of their shots with Dunn on the ice. His previous career-low shooting percentage on the power play was 12.0% so, with Seattle’s improved forward talent, it remains reasonable to expect more production out of Dunn.

Bowen Byram, Colorado

Concussions have plagued the 21-year-old who was the fourth pick in the 2019 Draft, but he has shown promising signs when healthy. He returned to the Colorado lineup late last season and contributed six points in 12 games before adding nine points in 20 games during the Stanley Cup run. The talent is not so much in question as is the opportunity. Byram thrived with more minutes when Samuel Girard was injured, but when Colorado’s defense is healthy, puck movers Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Girard, and Byram are all competing for minutes. Even so, Byram is worth a look in the later rounds because playing for the Avs offers an offensive upside that is not found with most other clubs.

Radko Gudas, Florida

Although he has never been a big scorer, the veteran blueliner has nudged his way towards fantasy viability with respectable shot rates and elite hit counts. His shot rate was nothing special last season, but Gudas led the league in hits for the second straight season, this time accumulating 355 hits, 82 more than any other defenseman. For massive impact in one category, Gudas can be a difference maker.

Chris Wideman, Montreal

A 32-year-old who returned to the NHL last season after playing in the KHL? Maybe not the ideal candidate for big production but opportunity should be there for Wideman to play a big role in Montreal, potentially quarterbacking the top power play unit. He produced 27 points (12 on the power play) in 64 games last season while playing less than 15 minutes per game. On a thin Montreal defense, there just might be a chance for Wideman to handle more responsibility and provide some late-round fantasy value.

GOALIES

Alexandar Georgiev, Colorado

This is less of a vote for Georgiev than it is a vote for the Colorado Avalanche. The 26-year-old netminder arrived in the NHL in 2017-2018 and posted a .918 save percentage with the Rangers. His save percentage has declined every year since, down to .898 last season, so that is not encouraging, but if the Avalanche are still a powerhouse team and Georgiev is the starting goaltender, he is going to get ample opportunity to post strong fantasy results, especially when it comes to wins. If Georgiev offers up a performance around league average, he should be highly valuable considering his circumstances.

Logan Thompson, Vegas

With Golden Knights No. 1 goaltender Robin Lehner potentially out for the season, the Golden Knights are scrambling in goal. They recently traded for Adin Hill, who offers some NHL experience, but their in-house option, Logan Thompson, may have the inside track on the starting job. Thompson is a 25-year-old who got into 19 games for Vegas last season, playing down the stretch as the Golden Knights tried in vain to earn a playoff spot. They were ultimately unsuccessful, but Thompson put up a .914 save percentage in those games, a decent indication that he could be ready for more NHL action. Now, it is being thrust upon him and he should have a relatively strong team in front of him, offering potential for wins if Thompson can continue to play at the level that he did in a small sample last season.