Rasmus Dahlin – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – BUFFALO SABRES – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Sat, 27 Sep 2025 16:49:22 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - JANUARY 21: Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin (26) waits for a face off during an NHL game between the Buffalo Sabres and the Vancouver Canucks on Tuesday, January 21, 2025 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, B.C. (Photo by Ethan Cairns/Icon Sportswire)

Last season, the Sabres turned back the clock and welcomed Lindy Ruff back as head coach after they dismissed Don Granato in hopes of ending the franchise’s playoff drought. Instead, the Sabres took a step back as they adjusted to the tougher ways Ruff brings behind the bench. The Sabres went from 84 points in 2023-2024 to 79 in 2024-2025. While Buffalo was able to score plenty at five-on-five (185 goals, fourth in NHL), their power play was slightly improved going from 16.6 to 18.8 percent but their penalty kill got worse going from 79.8 to 76.4 percent. With the kinds of offensive weapons they have, improving the power play is a necessity and if they’re going to be a playoff contender, the penalty kill must improve dramatically. Ruff returns for his second season and will hope to help them avoid a 15th straight season out of the playoffs.

What’s Changed?

Big changes usually happen in Buffalo after a disappointing season and while they avoided making coaching or executive changes, they traded their second leading scorer J.J. Peterka to Utah for defenceman Michael Kesselring and forward Josh Doan. Peterka made it clear he didn’t want to stay in Buffalo and wouldn’t re-sign with them as a restricted free agent and in return the Sabres got a righthanded defenceman in Kesselring they view to be the potential long-term partner for Owen Power or Rasmus Dahlin. With Doan, they get a high intensity forechecker and energetic player with loads of upside as well as an NHL lineage as the son of Shane Doan. Buffalo also added defenceman Conor Timmins from Pittsburgh in a draft weekend trade and signed goalie Alex Lyon and energetic forward Justin Danforth in free agency. If the goal of the offseason was to make the roster into more of a classic Lindy Ruff-style team, that’s what general manager Kevyn Adams accomplished.

What Would Success Look Like?

Playoffs. That’s it. The Sabres have been close enough to make it without doing so in recent years and that didn’t do anything to quell the fan base. If Tage Thompson (44 goals) and Alex Tuch (36 goals) pick up where they left off a year ago and Rasmus Dahlin continues to assert himself as one of the premier defencemen in the NHL, there’s no reason the Sabres shouldn’t be in striking range of the playoffs. A return to form for goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and a big step forward points-wise from defenceman Owen Power would allow Buffalo the chance to perhaps even threaten for a top three spot in the Atlantic Division, but that’s putting the cart way before the horse. There are zero questions about the talent level, but plenty of questions about how to make the talent work best.

What Could Go Wrong?

If the special teams continue to struggle and if Luukkonen’s goaltending falters again, it could be yet another long season in Buffalo. The team cannot afford to get off to a slow start and must avoid any extended losing streaks to keep up with the playoff race. Their 0-10-3 stretch during November and December last season virtually eliminated them from playoff contention because the hole they fell in was too deep to get out of. It took Boston faltering even harder to get Buffalo out of last place in the Atlantic. The Sabres are relying on Josh Norris returning healthy, for Jiri Kulich to take a step forward and Ryan McLeod to repeat what he did last season for their center depth to lead the way. It’s not exactly asking a lot, but it’s not an easy ask just the same. The number of “if” statements attached to them for things to work out is uncomfortable.

Top Breakout Candidate

When last season began, it wasn’t a definite that Jiri Kulich was going to be part of the Sabres roster, but he quickly made sure to do the right things to stay in Buffalo. His 15 goals and nine assists in 62 games and ability to play well enough at center to earn a spot on the top line late in the season with Thompson and Zach Benson. Kulich’s history in the AHL showed he can fill the net (24 and 27 goals in his 18-year and 19-year-old seasons) and there is more growth to come for the 21-year-old Czech with an elite shot. If he earns more power play time and continues to play minutes in the top six, the chances will pile up for him to score more.

FORWARDS

Tage Thompson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	46	32	78	1.01

If there were any worries about whether Tage Thompson would be able to regain his goal scoring prowess after seeing his goal total fall to 29 in 2023-2024 from his career-high 47 in 2022-2023, they disappeared in 2024-2025. Thompson led the Sabres with 44 goals last season and returned to his electrifying ways of filling the net. What’s more impressive is he did it while leading the league with 37 even strength goals. It might be viewed as worrisome that he posted just seven power play goals, but the Sabres power play struggled all season (ninth worst in the NHL) trying to find cohesion. You’d have to imagine that if their power play struggles get hammered out and Thompson is able to fire blasts from the circle at will again that his goal totals could jump even higher. What’s most striking about how Thompson was able to fill the net again is he did it mostly from the wing after he was moved there following a lower-body injury early last season. He teamed up with Jiri Kulich and Zach Benson late in the season and thrived on Kulich’s right side. His move to wing opens up questions elsewhere in the lineup, but the results from seeing him light it up again from a different position are hard to argue. Thompson was the Sabres leading scorer with 72 points in 76 games and despite not being named to the United States roster for the Four Nations Face-Off, his performance leading the U.S. to gold at World Championships may help land him a spot on the Olympic team in February.

Alex Tuch

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	38	35	73	0.89

Alex Tuch proved last season that he can excel at both ends of the ice and provided a bright spot in what was a gloomy season for the team in Buffalo. Tuch was second on the Sabres with 36 goals and was tied with Rangers forward Vincent Trocheck for most shorthanded goals with six. Tuch’s two-way game shined as he used his long reach and big body to take away shot and pass lanes on the penalty kill as well as the forecheck. His ability to make teams pay for turning the puck over was vital on the Sabres’ ability to frustrate teams while shorthanded. Tuch had 67 points which made him fourth on the team in scoring. Even though he was able to help drive the Sabres offence a couple of seasons ago playing on the wing with Tage Thompson, he found success last season playing with Ryan McLeod and Peyton Krebs during the second half of the season. Coach Lindy Ruff was looking for lines that could generate offence and still be sensible defensively and that allowed Tuch to settle into a role on a line with guys who can generally play well in their own ends. With Tuch having that ability to finish in the offensive end of the ice, it helped lift up his linemates who aren’t generally counted on to contribute offensively. In Tuch’s case, it cracked open his natural ability to frustrate opponents with his size and reach defensively and to use that to his advantage at both ends of the ice. Tuch is entering the final year of his contract with the Sabres, and a big payday is on the horizon.

Josh Norris

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
65	22	24	46	0.71

The Sabres acquisition of former 35-goal scorer Josh Norris came in one of the bigger trades ahead of the deadline last season when they sent 2019 first-round pick Dylan Cozens to Ottawa for him. Norris’s career with the Senators was much maligned due to repeated shoulder injuries and surgeries and although those ailments appear to be behind him for now, his time with Buffalo was cut short last season due to an oblique injury he attempted to play through. Norris had a goal and an assist in three games with the Sabres after he put up 20 goals and 13 assists with Ottawa. Although he’s a center, Norris is a shooter more than a playmaker and where he figures to fit into the lineup is one of the bigger mysteries of the new season. Although he’ll play in the top six forward group, who his wingers will end up being is something worth watching out for. He’ll have a lot of options between Zach Benson, Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Jack Quinn, Jason Zucker and Josh Doan, but the Sabres will need to have Norris healthy more than anything else. In the past, Norris has shown himself to be a dynamite offensive player with a good shot and solid puck skills. It’s unfortunate he couldn’t get more of an introduction with his teammates last season, but if the Sabres are going to end their 14-year playoff drought, they’ll need him on the ice so as to not thin out their center group.

Ryan McLeod

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	19	35	54	0.66

Contract years tend to bring out the best in players and in Ryan McLeod’s case that was an exemplary truth. McLeod had a career-high 20 goals and 53 points after coming over from the Edmonton Oilers. He proved to be one of the most versatile players in the Sabres lineup as he was able to play center on any of the four lines, on the power play and most especially shorthanded. His speed and tenacity on the forecheck made him frustrating for opponents to get away from and no longer being pigeonholed as a solely checking line player proved to be advantageous to Buffalo given his massively increased offensive output. His great season earned him a four-year, $20 million restricted free agent deal. Considering the reaction to the trade that brought him to Buffalo in which he was swapped one-for-one with 2022 ninth overall pick Matthew Savoie was overwhelmingly negative for the Sabres, McLeod’s huge season and overall performance has helped make it out to be one of Buffalo general manager Kevyn Adams’s savvier trades. What’s worth watching now is how McLeod performs with higher expectations put upon him thanks to the new contract. Whether he’s centering the second, third or fourth lines or playing on the wing, the Sabres are content knowing they’ll get the same effort out of him regardless.

Jason Zucker

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	17	26	43	0.61

A year ago, Jason Zucker was the Sabres most noteworthy free agent signing and he came as advertised and provided a sorely needed veteran presence in the locker room for a very young team. Zucker had 21 goals and 32 assists and was the team’s leading scorer on the power play with 11 goals. He found a lot of success being around the net tipping pucks and cleaning up rebounds His speed and hockey know how injected an air of confidence into the lineup they sorely needed up front while some of their younger players struggled adapting to Lindy Ruff’s coaching style. After the Sabres bought out Jeff Skinner last summer, adding Zucker to replace his production while also giving them a player who can help better perform defensively was a needed change. Even though there were questions about where Zucker would best fit into the lineup, like Ryan McLeod, it didn’t necessarily matter which line he was on because he was going to play the same way no matter what. Although Zucker could’ve been a prime trade piece at the deadline, he signed a two-year, $9.5 million extension to stay with the Sabres. At 33 years old, he’s the Sabres oldest player. Make no mistake, his presence is vital to their young group in helping stay grounded and loose. His versatility in being able to play anywhere in the lineup makes him even more valuable to them.

Jiri Kulich

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
73	21	14	35	0.48

Among the many young players that make up the Sabres lineup, the emergence of Jiri Kulich in the NHL last season was a key one for their future. After he spent the past two seasons in the American Hockey League, Kulich forced his way into the Sabres lineup with his ability to handle play at center and his elite shot. He had 15 goals and nine assists in 62 games with the Sabres which doesn’t totally grab people’s attention, but when you consider he spent the latter part of the season as their No. 1 center between Zach Benson and Tage Thompson, it becomes a fair bit more impressive to take in. Kulich was the third of three first-round picks the Sabres made in 2022 and the 28th overall pick established a reputation as a goal scorer in the AHL as he put up 24 and 27 goals the previous two seasons. Although he was drafted and believed to be a winger, he’s taken to playing center by improving his attention to detail defensively and improving his work on faceoffs. Now 21 years old, Kulich is among the younger players on the roster but after proving his capabilities last season and showing that his offensive capabilities carried over from the AHL, it’ll be worth watching to see how his game grows in his second full NHL season, especially with the possibility of playing for Czechia in the Olympics on the horizon.

Jack Quinn

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	21	24	45	0.57

After coming off a season in which he missed half of it recovering from a torn Achilles tendon and then even more time with a broken leg afterwards, Jack Quinn was poised for a return to health and goal scoring form last season. But the change from Don Granato to Lindy Ruff as head coach didn’t go as smoothly for him. Despite all of that bad-sounding news, Quinn posted career-highs with 15 goals and 24 assists and 39 points in 74 games. The numbers outpaced his rookie season performance, which is good, but being two years removed from that makes it a bit of a downer. His pace was off and the attention to detail in his defensive game lapsed at times which didn’t help with his new head coach. Quinn signed a two-year, $6.75 million contract in the offseason that will function as a prove-it deal for him. Staying healthy like he did last season will go a long way to helping him do that. His shot creativity and ability to score off the rush are high end and when he’s playing at the top of his game he’s a dangerous scorer, but being able to stay consistent will be necessary. Now that Tage Thompson is on the wing, it makes things a bit more crowded on the right side with Thompson and Alex Tuch also on the right side. That said, now that both Dylan Cozens and J.J. Peterka are gone, the center Quinn fits best with is worth keeping an eye on be it Jiri Kulich, Josh Norris or Ryan McLeod.

Zach Benson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	12	24	36	0.47

If there’s one player up front to really watch to see how their game evolves this season, it’s Zach Benson. Benson was a big-time scorer in the WHL who used his offensive smarts, skill and ability to frustrate defenders with his tenaciousness. The latter trait has more than carried over into the NHL as he’s become an effective forechecker and penalty killer on top of being someone at the middle of many scrums after the whistle. Last season with Buffalo, Benson had 10 goals and 18 assists, numbers that were very slightly down from his rookie year. Benson just turned 20 in May and is headed into his third NHL season and that he made the Sabres roster as an 18-year-old said a lot about him and the Sabres alike. His dogged style of play, however, has endeared him to fans and earned respect from his coaches. He’s been a classic “if everyone played like him, they’d be doing great” kind of player, but for him to take his game to another level he must increase his offensive output. If Benson’s game evolves by continuing to do things that make him more like similarly statured players in the league like Brad Marchand, it would make for a massive change for the overall performance and attitude of the Sabres. If he continues to hover around the net and wreaks havoc, the goals will come.

Josh Doan

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	12	20	32	0.41

With the departure of J.J. Peterka to Utah, Josh Doan will be viewed as having some big skates to fill to help make up for the loss in scoring. At 23 years old, Doan’s NHL career is just getting started, however. Doan played 51 of his 62 career games last season and had seven goals and 12 assists while playing a third-or-fourth line role. He’s best known for his intense forechecking ability and getting in on plays deep in the zone to frustrate opposing defenders trying to exit the zone. He’s strong and quick and during his time playing at Arizona State and the AHL, showed a solid scoring touch. If he can see more of that translate over to the NHL, the Sabres will be very happy to see it although they’ll be satisfied having a guy that plays as hard as he does. It’s expected that Doan will play lower in the Sabres lineup either on the third or fourth lines, but having him work with guys like Peyton Krebs, Jordan Greenway or Beck Malenstyn could help give Buffalo a tough and annoying line to deal with each game. Being Shane Doan’s son, he might set a high bar for expectations for some, but Josh’s game should fit in well with what Lindy Ruff ideally wants to see the team play like.

DEFENCE

Rasmus Dahlin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	20	50	70	0.88

If fans weren’t aware of how good a defenceman Rasmus Dahlin was already, watching him or tracking his stats last season would’ve done the trick. Dahlin was a dominant presence for the Sabres and finished tied for second on the team in scoring with J.J. Peterka with 68 points in 73 games. He led Sabres defencemen in scoring, goals (17) and assists (51) as well as average time on-ice (24:14). For comparison’s sake, the Sabres’ other nine defencemen combined to score 23 goals. To say everything runs through Dahlin would be putting it lightly. What’s more remarkable about Dahlin’s performance last season is that virtually every defenceman who paired with him during the year saw their own performances improve greatly because of it. Dahlin’s play was noticeable enough to land him sixth in the voting by the PHWA for the Norris Trophy as the league’s best defenceman. With the puck on Dahlin’s stick and in control of the play up and down the ice, the Sabres’ best chances to score goals and win games comes when he’s on the ice. With Bo Byram re-signed and the addition of Michael Kesselring and Conor Timmins to the blue line corps, it remains to be seen who will start the season as Dahlin’s partner, but you’d have to think it would start with Byram who had some of his best play of the season alongside Dahlin. Regardless of who gets the call, however, expect Dahlin to continue to grow into one of the best defencemen in the league.

Owen Power

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	9	36	45	0.58

There’s a big step forward in Owen Power’s game that’s coming and it’s just a matter of when it will happen. Power had seven goals and 33 assists in 79 games last season and was second among Sabres defencemen in scoring behind Rasmus Dahlin. It was a career-year offensively for him, but fans are waiting for his game to take a leap forward the way Dahlin’s has. Although his defensive numbers weren’t as strong as you’d like to see, a lot of what he does very well to disrupt opponents doesn’t necessarily get tabulated in stats. This only serves to help make arguments about him get a bit heated. As an extremely smart player with and without the puck, Power can make elite plays with regularity. His size, reach and agility make him frustrating to play against for puck carriers and shooters, and now with the addition of Michael Kesselring and Conor Timmins, the hope for the Sabres is they’ve found a regular right-handed partner for Power to pair up with. Over his first few seasons in the league, he’s had a regular rotation of defence partners and a theory for his occasional struggles centered around the lack of consistency there. Expect to see Kesselring with him this season at some point if not immediately in camp.

Bowen Byram

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	8	33	41	0.50

When the Sabres acquired Bo Byram from Colorado two seasons ago, the hope was they added a player who would give them one of the most formidable defence units in the NHL. Last season, we saw a lot from Byram that helped encourage that belief. Byram had seven goals and a career-high 31 assists last season to set a new career-high in scoring with 38 points. As a lefthanded shot, Byram fitting into the Sabres lineup can be tricky with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and Mattias Samuelsson also being lefthanded. But when he paired with Dahlin, we got a chance to see some of what helped make him such a highly sought-after player. Byram’s ability to carry the puck through all three zones and his offensive instincts were noticeable while he worked with Dahlin and the quick moving play they developed together also didn’t necessarily hurt them defensively either. Although that pairing didn’t stick together all season, this summer’s additions might allow for them to be reunited on the top pairing. That Byram is back in Buffalo is a bit of a surprise. He was the subject of trade rumors throughout the offseason because of his restricted free agent status and the fact that Dahlin and Power are responsible for most of the five-on-five and power play time, but he signed a two-year, $12.5 million deal to avoid arbitration that will also walk him to unrestricted free agency when it ends. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to show what he can do until then.

Michael Kesselring

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	5	22	27	0.33

When the Sabres made their offseason trade with the Utah Mammoth to send J.J. Peterka out of town, the main player general manager Kevyn Adams zeroed in on was Michael Kesselring. This might sound a bit strange, but the reasons for going after the 6-foot-5 righthanded defenceman make a lot of sense. Kesselring has been a bit of a late bloomer since he was drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the sixth round in 2018. He spent three seasons in the AHL after he was signed by Edmonton out of Northeastern University and then was sent to Arizona in the Nick Bjugstad trade in 2023. With the Coyotes and Utah Hockey Club, however, he was able to grow and become a steady defensive defenceman who also possesses a powerful slap shot. In 82 games with Utah last season, Kesselring had seven goals and 22 assists as well as 89 penalty minutes thanks to his physical play and willingness to fight when called on. That kind of edge has been lacking overall from the Sabres lineup, but especially on the blue line. The hope is he’ll be able to pair with Owen Power and mind the defensive side of the game to a point to better allow Power the freedom to create more offensively and boost the Sabres attack further.

Goal

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
48	22	18	4	3	.905	3.05

Of all the league's starting goaltenders who stayed in place throughout the year, no one struggled more mightily than Buffalo's Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Cornered by a Sabres lineup that featured a limited-usage James Reimer and a still-developing Devon Levi, Luukkonen was left to shoulder the lion's share of the starts - and the result left Buffalo floundering as the agile but highly mobile Luukkonen struggled to find a flow amidst poor defence and growing fatigue. His numbers aren't entirely his fault; his game play looked like a severe mismatch with the defensive strategy in front of him, forcing extra scrambling for soft rebounds and limited sightlines for a goaltender who relies on his agility to get him where he needs to go in the nick of time.

In what seems to be a signal that Buffalo doesn't want to hamper Devon Levi's development, though, the Sabres have brought experienced veteran backup Alex Lyon into the fold to help weather the storm this year. At best, he can serve as a reliable, steadying technical presence during stretches in order to give Luukkonen a break without prematurely throwing Levi to the wolves full-time. And in a worst-case scenario, Luukkonen might end up being the odd man out, leaving Levi and Lyon to handle the workload for larger chunks of time. Either way, the Buffalo crease doesn't necessarily look set for the long term - but it does look like things might be less hectic for Luukkonen, at least for this year.

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Are the New York Rangers really this bad? – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 21 Dec 2024 13:30:15 +0000

_{NEW YORK, NY - MAY 30: Igor Shesterkin #31 of the New York Rangers prior to the National Hockey League Eastern Conference Final game 5 against the Florida Panthers on May 30, 2024 at Madison Square Garden in New York. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)}

Are the New York Rangers really this bad or just stuck in an absurdly long slump? Or is there a third possibility?

The common narrative seems to put the blame on Rangers president and GM Chris Drury, who some speculate has created a rift between management and the players that's having a significant impact on the ice. Vincent Z. Mercogliano of Lohud reported that some on the team have taken issue with Drury's methods, from waiving Barclay Goodrow to get around his no-trade clause to threatening to do the same to captain Jacob Trouba if he didn't sign off on a trade to Anaheim, to Drury reportedly issuing a memo that the Rangers were open for business on the trade front following a loss to Edmonton, despite team still being a strong 12-6-1 at that time.

Then there was the incident with Kaapo Kakko. Rangers coach Peter Laviolette decided to scratch him for Tuesday's tilt against Nashville after New York lost 10 of 13, dropping to 15-14-1. However, Kakko took exception to that, feeling he was getting unfairly singled out.

"I know you've got to do something as a coach when you're losing games, but I think it's just easy to pick a young guy and boot him out. That's how I feel, to be honest," Kakko said, per Mollie Walker of the New York Post. He added, "I have not been the worst guy. But that was me out of the lineup."

The Rangers ended up losing 2-0 to Nashville. The next day, Kakko was dealt to Seattle. Even if Kakko never really developed as the Rangers hoped when they selected him with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, that whole saga this week was another distraction that the team could ill afford.

But is this really as simple as mismanagement leading to the group failing to play up to its potential or is there a deeper problem? On the surface, the answer seems obvious. The Rangers reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022 and 2024 and started the campaign 12-4-1. How could this not be a team capable of contending?

There are some areas of concern, though. Chris Kreider's success has been driven by his ability to score goals, but he might be slowing in that regard at the age of 33. He has 10 markers in 28 appearances in 2024-25, which would be considered good for other players, but he doesn't bring a lot else to the table -- he has just one assist -- so that's worrying.

Mika Zibanejad has seen his production dip too. He has six goals and 21 points through 31 outings and is in a four-way tie for the fourth-worst plus/minus at minus-17. Plus/minus isn't the best metric, but he also has a relative 5v5 CF% and 5v5 FF% of minus-6.7 and minus-5.8, respectively, which suggests that his team is doing better in terms of puck possession when he's off the ice compared to when he's on it. He also has a 5v5 CF%/FF% of 44.0/44.2, which would represent career lows for him.

To some extent, this reminds me a little of what happened to the San Jose Sharks. They were a perennial contender through the 2018-19 campaign. They reached the Stanley Cup Final in 2016 and the Western Conference Final in 2019. San Jose was far from resting on its laurels either. Still searching for that elusive championship, San Jose acquired elite defenseman Erik Karlsson in September 2018 and locked him up to an eight-year, $92 million contract in the summer of 2019.

The stage seemed to be set for the Sharks to be Cup contenders in 2019-20. Sure, Joe Pavelski was gone, but the forward group of Timo Meier, Evander Kane, Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl was still fairly young. Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau were there as the veteran presences, and the duo of Karlsson and Brent Burns was one of the best on paper. Not only did San Jose fail to make the playoffs that year, but the Sharks haven't made it since. In retrospect, they misjudged their core and got caught in an awkward position of needing to rebuild but being slow to do so due to their already established long-term contracts.

It might be overly dramatic to suggest that the Rangers are a repeat of that, but a slump this long and dramatic is unusual and hard to dismiss.

Igor Shesterkin just has to hope that the Sharks comparison proves to be invalid. In that scenario, he'd be the Karlsson: A player who made a major commitment to a team he thought was going to be a contender, only to see some of his prime years squandered. Shesterkin recently agreed to his own eight-year, $92 million contract that doesn't even begin until next year. Maybe he'll end up having better luck with the team around him than Karlsson…

Boston Bruins (Mon @ VAN, Thu @ SJS, FRI @ ANA, Sun vs. SEA)

The upcoming week will be relatively light because the NHL will not play Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday due to its Christmas break. That said, there are still teams worth highlighting, starting with the Bruins, who begin the week with a difficult home game against Washington on Monday but will then face the rebuilding Blue Jackets on the road Friday and then in Boston on Saturday.

The Bruins' rough start to the campaign is largely behind them. From Nov. 21 onward, the Bruins have a 9-4-1 record to put them at 17-13-4 overall. The single biggest difference is that Boston has given up far fewer goals, going from an average of 3.45 goals allowed over its 8-9-3 start to 2.71 across its past 15 games.

Jeremy Swayman has been a benefactor of that, posting a 2.68 GAA over that 15-game span (he's appeared in 10 of those contests) while earning a 6-3-1 record. However, Swayman's save percentage during that stretch is a less impressive .892. It's worth noting that span includes a rough 8-1 loss to Winnipeg in which Swayman was charged with every goal. If you exclude that one start, then his save percentage during that span jumps to .912.

Boston's offense has also improved over the past 15 games, though it's still not special, earning 2.86 goals per game over that stretch compared to 2.40 during the first 20 games. Pavel Zacha and Morgan Geekie have provided some key secondary scoring recently, totaling nine and eight points, respectively, across Boston's last 15 outings. Neither one has been particularly consistent, though, and their production is only impressive when measured against their dreadful starts to the campaign.

Meanwhile, Elias Lindholm continues to underwhelm with five goals and 17 points through 34 appearances. However, he is on a three-game scoring streak (two goals, four points), so perhaps he'll be effective in the upcoming week.

Buffalo Sabres (Mon vs. DAL, Thu @ MIN, FRI vs. PIT, Sun vs. STL)

I started this article by highlighting the Rangers for their struggles, but Buffalo has been even worse. Going into Friday's action, the Sabres have lost 11 straight games, dropping to 11-17-4. Rather than showing signs of turning things around, they suffered a 6-1 loss to Montreal on Tuesday.

The Sabres won't face particularly stiff competition next week, though, so perhaps they can stabilize. They'll play on the road against the Islanders on Monday, host Chicago on Friday and conclude the week in St. Louis on Sunday.

Finding a diamond in the rough on a team doing that poorly is difficult. Jason Zucker is about as close as you'll come. He has eight goals and 21 points through 32 appearances, making this a nice bounce-back campaign for him after he finished 2023-24 with 32 points in 69 regular-season games between Arizona and Nashville. It helps that he's averaging 2:53 with the man advantage, which would be a career-high if he maintains that. Zucker has seven power-play points (three goals), which puts him on track to easily surpass his 2023-24 total of 10 and potentially even best his personal best of 16, which was set in 2017-18.

Outside of that, though, there isn't much to like. Rasmus Dahlin (back) is set to return on Friday, which should be a significant boost for Buffalo. The Sabres' losing streak predates Dahlin's seven-game absence, but it's still reasonable to say that Dahlin plays an important role for Buffalo and that his exclusion from the lineup was felt. He has six goals and 19 points in 25 appearances in 2024-25 while averaging 24:42 of ice time, including 3:23 with the man advantage.

Owen Power has been seeing significant power-play usage recently, but with Dahlin back, Power might be absent from the power play entirely for Friday's game. For other defensemen, that would be a big blow, but Power has failed to take advantage of that role -- he hasn't recorded a single power-play point in 2024-25 -- so it shouldn't change much for those who have Power on their team.

Dallas Stars (Mon @ BUF, Thu vs. VGK, FRI vs. TBL, Sun vs. MIN)

Dallas is set to play in Utah on Monday, host the Wild on Friday and play in Chicago on Sunday. It's not a bad schedule, but under normal circumstances, it wouldn't be good enough to highlight. Still, it's nice to have an opportunity to talk about Dallas, which has done well this campaign with a 19-12-0 record heading into Friday's action.

The Stars are also in an interesting spot right now. Matt Duchene is their scoring leader with 30 points (13 goals) in 31 appearances, but his hot start has come to an end with him recording just a goal and three points across his past nine outings. Duchene's cold stretch probably isn't the new normal, but it's equally fair to suggest that he overperformed early in the campaign. His shooting percentage, which remains an uncomfortably high 26.0, suggests that there might still be more backsliding to come. He might ultimately finish the campaign with 60-70 points, which would be in line with his 2023-24 results and would represent a mild, but not dramatic, scoring decline from his overall scoring pace this campaign.

Fortunately for Dallas, Duchene's decline has corresponded with Jason Robertson showing signs of life. The 25-year-old forward's overall numbers this campaign remain well below what you'd expect from him (seven goals and 21 points in 31 games), but he has collected two goals and six points over his past five appearances.

Jamie Benn has also been solid, recording an assist in each of his past six outings and contributing two goals and nine points across his last 10 games. His 20 points through 31 appearances in 2024-25 still put him on pace to finish below his 60-point regular-season total from 2023-24, but it still wouldn't be shocking to see him end up hitting that mark by the end of the campaign.

Minnesota Wild (Mon vs. TBL, Thu vs. BUF, FRI @ VGK, Sun vs. DAL)

The Wild will begin next week by hosting the Blackhawks before playing in Dallas on Friday and finally returning home to face the Senators on Sunday. Dallas, as discussed above, is a tough opponent, but Chicago is a rebuilding squad, and the Senators are a middling 7-7-1 on the road.

The big question out of Minnesota is the health of Filip Gustavsson. At the time of writing, he's out with a lower-body injury, but his status appears to be day-to-day, so it's possible he'll be back next week. Gustavsson has been a key part of Minnesota's success with a 14-5-3 record, 2.24 GAA and .922 save percentage in 22 appearances.

Marc-Andre Fleury has been mostly okay this campaign, but the 40-year-old netminder is coming off a rough 6-1 loss to Florida on Wednesday, which dropped him to a 2.88 GAA and a .898 save percentage through 10 outings this season. The current alternative to him is Jesper Wallstedt, who stopped 24 of 27 shots en route to a 3-2 loss to Vegas on Dec. 15. To be fair to both goaltenders, Florida and Vegas are some of the toughest competition they could have possibly faced.

Still, it seems reasonable that they'll need a meaningful amount of goal support going forward. Fortunately for the Wild, Kirill Kaprizov is continuing to play like Kirill Kaprizov. The elite forward has nine goals and 14 points over his past 11 appearances, which gives him 22 goals and 48 points in 31 outings overall. Mats Zuccarello also returned Dec. 14 from a lower-body injury and has gotten back to work with three assists over three outings.

Zuccarello's return also means Matt Boldy has shifted to the second line. Boldy has an impressive 13 goals and 30 points in 32 contests in 2024-25, but Kaprizov has been involved in 18 of those points. They are still sharing the ice on the power play, but if they don't skate together regularly in 5-on-5 situations, then Boldy might see a modest decline in production.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Mon @ STL, Thu vs. VGK, FRI @ BUF, Sun @ TBL)

Pittsburgh seemed doomed to miss the playoffs again based on its 7-12-4 start, but the Penguins have rebounded by going 8-2-1 since. Can they keep it up next week? They'll host the Flyers on Monday before a back-to-back set against the Islanders on Saturday and Sunday. Pittsburgh will be on the road for the first half of that set and then play at home.

So who is responsible for Pittsburgh's comeback? Is it Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin? Actually, it's Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell.

That's not to take anything away from Crosby, who has nine goals and 35 points in 34 outings in 2024-25, or Malkin, who has seven goals and 27 points. However, Crosby has been largely productive during the good times and bad while Malkin was actually doing better early in the campaign.

Their importance is clear, but what has really changed recently is Rust and Rakell providing far more than just secondary scoring. If I told you that a Penguins forward had nine goals and 17 points across the past 11 appearances without providing any other context, your first guess would likely be Malkin or Crosby, but that's what Rust has done. He was limited early in the campaign due to injury, but he's been playing some of the best hockey of his career lately.

Rakell has been nearly as good, supplying eight goals and 14 points across the same 11-game span. That brings him up to 15 goals and 26 points through 34 outings overall. His offensive struggles in 2023-24, dropping to 37 points from 60 points in 2022-23, were part of why the Penguins fell short of playoffs last year, so it seems appropriate that his resurgence is leading Pittsburgh back into postseason contention.

Not everything is rosy with the Penguins, though. Goaltending was the team's biggest issue early in the campaign and it remains a question mark. Tristan Jarry has a 3.62 GAA and a .883 save percentage through 14 outings and has surrendered at least three goals in three of his past four starts. Alex Nedeljkovic isn't giving the Penguins much of an alternative, though, with his own 3.26 GAA and .886 save percentage through 14 outings.

Pittsburgh does rank 28th in xGA/60 (3.30), per Moneypuck, which suggests that the defense in front of the netminders deserves part of the blame. However, Nedeljkovic has a goals saved above expected of minus-6.0 while Jarry is at minus-6.5, so this seems to be a case of both a bad defense and poor goaltending. The result is Pittsburgh ranks last in the league in goals allowed per game at 3.68. For context, that's just outside of the top-10 worst of any team in the salary cap era (2005-06 and onward). Of the teams who have posted a goals allowed per game worse than Pittsburgh, none of them finished with a points percentage of .500 or better.

St. Louis Blues (Mon vs. PIT, Thu @ DAL, FRI vs. TBL, Sun @ BUF)

The Blues will start next week with a game in Detroit on Monday, but after that, they'll return to St. Louis to host Nashville on Friday and Buffalo on Sunday. St. Louis has been a mixed bag in 2024-25, posting a 15-16-3 record going into Friday's action.

Jordan Binnington has left plenty to be desired this campaign with an 8-13-3 record, 3.00 GAA and .896 save percentage in 25 appearances. He's had some good stretches, but he's been inconsistent and is presently in a cold stretch after allowing at least three goals in six of his past seven games. His struggles have led to Joel Hofer becoming more of a 1B rather than a true backup, and Hofer might begin to migrate into being the 1A. The 24-year-old hasn't been stealing the show, but he has been the better option with a 7-3-0 record, 2.72 GAA and .907 save percentage through 11 appearances.

Of course, the Blues aren't alone in their goaltending woes. We just discussed a worse situation in Pittsburgh, but St. Louis doesn't have the offensive prowess to make up for it. The Blues rank 30th in goals per game with 2.50.

Robert Thomas has done well recently with four goals and 14 points across his past nine appearances while Jordan Kyrou has supplied seven goals and eight points over the same stretch, so the team isn't completely devoid of scoring, but it lacks depth and consistency.

Brandon Saad stands out as someone who has been disappointing when it comes to secondary scoring. After supplying 26 goals and 42 points in 82 outings last year, he has four markers and 10 points through 30 appearances in 2024-25. His decline has led to St. Louis using him less and less. He's even set to be a healthy scratch Friday. At this point, I don't have a lot of hope that he'll rebound, though he's not too old at 32, so anything is possible.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Mon @ MIN, Thu vs. PIT, FRI @ STL, Sun @ PIT)

Tampa Bay is riding a five-game winning streak and is 7-1-0 over its past eight to improve to 18-10-2 on the season. The Lightning will seek to keep that momentum going next week, when it plays in Florida on Monday and hosts the Rangers and the Canadiens on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

The Lightning deserve a lot of credit for moving on from Steven Stamkos and instead signing Jake Guentzel over the summer. While Stamkos has started to find his way with Nashville after a rocky start, Guentzel is four years younger and has proven to be a great fit.

Guentzel enjoyed an incredible seven-game goal-scoring streak from Nov. 30-Dec. 17 and now has 18 markers and 33 points across 30 appearances in 2024-25. The trio of Guentzel, Brayden Point (21 goals and 38 points in 26 outings) and Nikita Kucherov (14 goals and 35 points in 31 appearances) have been wildly successful. It would not be shocking if each of those three finished the campaign with over 40 goals and 80 points. That alone would make the Lightning a dangerous adversary, but they also have Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli excelling on the second line with 37 and 28 points, respectively.

One underrated aspect of this team is how well Tampa Bay has performed defensively. The Lightning ranked 18th in xGA/60 last campaign (3.14) but are sixth in 2024-25 (2.78). That's part of the reason why Andrei Vasilevskiy has looked so much better this campaign, posting a 2.38 GAA and a .911 save percentage through 25 appearances compared to his 2.90 GAA and .900 save percentage in 51 regular-season games last year.

Tampa Bay could use a better backup, though. Jonas Johansson has a 3.84 GAA and .882 save percentage in six appearances, and the Lightning's lack of trust in him has led to Tampa Bay leaning heavily on Vasilevskiy. The 30-year-old Vasilevskiy is no stranger to heavy workloads, but I have to wonder if the Lightning won't look to add a goaltender at some point in the hopes of managing Vasilevskiy a bit ahead of what Tampa Bay doubtlessly hopes will be a lengthy playoff run.

Vegas Golden Knights (Mon vs. SEA, Thu @ DAL, FRI vs. MIN, Sun @ BOS)

The Golden Knights have a relatively favorable week ahead of them. They'll host the Ducks on Monday, play in San Jose on Friday and then return home to face the Flames on Sunday. Vegas is 21-8-3 and has been particularly dominant at home (12-3-0), though the Golden Knights should also be heavy favorites against the 11-19-5 Sharks, even if that is a road engagement.

Injuries have been a recurring issue for Vegas in recent years, and while they haven't been immune to them in 2024-25, it hasn't been as bad. Vegas has nine forwards, including Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev and Tomas Hertl, and four defensemen, namely Noah Hanifin, Shea Theodore, Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden McNabb, who have logged at least 29 of 32 games. That doesn't make Vegas special from a health perspective, but it's certainly not bad.

Mark Stone is the main notable exception to that. He was so good early in the campaign with six goals and 21 points through 13 appearances, but he suffered a lower-body injury that kept him out of 14 games from Nov. 8-Dec. 4. Since returning, he's been fine, but the injury stopped his momentum, leaving him with four assists across his past five outings.

Eichel's been healthy, though, and on his way to having the best campaign of his career. He's up to nine goals and 42 points through 32 outings. Eichel's never recorded more than 82 points in a single campaign, in large part due to injuries. That's killed the whole Eichel versus Connor McDavid debate -- although Eichel is the one with a championship, there's no question who has been more impressive -- but not too much has separated them so far this campaign. McDavid is narrowly ahead with 15 goals and 45 points through 29 outings.

Another former Sabres forward has been even hotter than Eichel recently. Surprisingly, Victor Olofsson has provided four goals over his past four games. He had just seven goals and 15 points over 51 outings last year, and a lower-body injury that sidelined him from Oct. 17-Nov. 29 (a total of 20 games missed) has complicated his first campaign with Vegas. However, it'll be interesting to see if he can keep this going now that he's healthy. Olofsson did score 28 goals in 2022-23 and has surpassed the 20-goal milestone three times, so there is some upside here, especially with Vegas currently using him on the second line and first power-play unit.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Vilardi heating up, Kakko on the move, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 21 Dec 2024 00:53:01 +0000

_{LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 13: Winnipeg Jets center Gabriel Vilardi (13) celebrates his goal during an NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on December 13, 2023 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)}

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Gabriel Vilardi is hot, Pavel Buchnevich is thriving on the wing, Kirill Marchenko leads the surprising Blue Jackets, a fresh start for Kaapo Kakko, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Winnipeg Jets right-winger Gabriel Vilardi is heating up. The 25-year-old forward has tallied 11 points (5 G, 6 A) with 16 shots on goal while averaging 19:26 of ice time per game in his past eight games. He is in a great spot, skating on the Jets’ top line with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, as well as playing on the top power-play unit. Injuries have been a significant factor in Vilardi’s career, and he has never played more than 63 games in a season, so it is surprising that he has played in all 34 games for the Jets thus far. Vilardi has 28 points already, so if he remains healthy, he should surpass his career high of 41 points set in 2022-2023.

#2 The St. Louis Blues tried to shift Pavel Buchnevich to centre at the start of the season, confident that his all-around game would fit in that role, and it did not bring out the best in the veteran forward. He has been returned to the wing and in 10 games since Jim Montgomery took over behind the Blues bench, Buchnevich has contributed nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 27 shots on goal and has most recently found himself skating on a line with Jake Neighbours and Robert Thomas.

#3 The leading scorer for the Columbus Blue Jackets this season, with 33 points (11 G, 22 A) in 33 games, is third-year right winger Kirill Marchenko. In his past 15 games, he has 17 points (5 G, 12 A) and 46 shots on goal. He plays 18 minutes per game, consistently generates shots and has a good thing going on Columbus’ top line with Dmitri Voronkov and Sean Monahan.

#4 With just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 30 games for the New York Rangers, right winger Kaapo Kakko was traded to the Seattle Kraken, an opportunity for a fresh start for the second pick in the 2019 Draft. Kakko, 23, had career highs of 18 goals and 40 points during the 2022-2023 season but has not been able to generate enough offense to meet expectations. While Kakko’s puck possession numbers aren’t great this season, it has typically been a strength of his, so he should be able to hold a regular spot in the Kraken lineup. In his first game for Seattle, Kakko skated on a line with Jared McCann and Matty Beniers, which would be a decent spot for him to find his offensive game.

#5 With the Edmonton Oilers scoring at a high rate, ranking second in the league over the past month, there are secondary sources of offense available on this squad. One worth considering is defenceman Darnell Nurse, who has five assists and 14 shots on goal in his past six games. Nurse has 15 points (3 G, 12 A) in 29 games, with just one point on the power play, but he has been this productive despite an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.1 percent during five-on-five play. That mark should go up, so it would be a reasonable expectation for Nurse to score at least a half-point per game for the rest of the season. For a player who delivers hits and blocked shots as well, Nurse has value in most fantasy formats.

#6 Colorado Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen has thrived with the Avs, where his hard-working industrious style of play complements Colorado’s highly skilled top players. In his past 11 games, Lehkonen has nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 25 shots on goal while averaging more than 22 minutes of ice time per game. He skates on Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, which is obviously a prime position for Lehkonen to continue delivering offensive production.

#7 After a slow start to the season, veteran Utah Hockey Club right winger Nick Schmaltz has started to break out of his slump, scoring at a more typical rate. Through his first 19 games of the season, Schmaltz had zero goals and 13 assists with 38 shots on goal. In a dozen games since then, he has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) with 30 shots on goal. As a key player on Utah’s top line and first power play unit, Schmaltz tends to be a reliable scoring threat and appears to be back on track.

#8 As the Buffalo Sabres are watching their season go down the drain, defenceman Owen Power has quietly been very productive. While Power has 20 points (4 G, 16 A) in 32 games, it’s notable that all 20 points have come at even strength, which puts him third in even-strength scoring among defencemen, behind only Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. Power’s offensive ceiling would seem to be limited in Buffalo, where Rasmus Dahlin (currently injured) and Bowen Byram have power play priority, but the towering defender is already productive at 22 years old.

#9 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry has become a consistently productive scorer in recent seasons, even if it sometimes gets overlooked because of where he plays. In his past 11 games, Terry has put up 13 points (3 G, 10 A) with 37 shots on goal while averaging 19:53 of ice time per game. On a Ducks team trying to build around young players, Terry is skating on a line with Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome on Anaheim’s No. 1 line.

#10 The Anaheim Ducks shuffled the deck on their blueline, dealing veteran defenceman Cam Fowler to the St. Louis Blues and part of the reason for the change was to give younger defencemen the opportunity to step into bigger roles. Second-year blueliner Jackson LaCombe is making the most of his chances and, in December, has suddenly produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal in seven games. He is playing nearly 20 minutes per game in that time and is getting first-unit power play time, which makes him a legitimate option for fantasy managers.

#11 Nashville Predators defenceman Roman Josi has been battling a lower-body injury and has landed on the injured list. With Josi out, Brady Skjei takes over as the quarterback on the Nashville power play. Skjei has failed to record a point in each of his past nine games, despite playing nearly 23 minutes per game, leaving him with nine points (2 G, 7 A) in 32 games. That is a long way off the pace that Skjei set in Carolina over the previous three seasons when he produced 124 points (40 G, 84 A) in 243 games for the Hurricanes.

#12 Another former Hurricane, winger Teuvo Teravainen started slowly upon his return to Chicago, managing eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his first 18 games, with half of those goals and points coming in the third game of the season. Since then, Teravainen has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 15 games and he is skating on Chicago’s third line, alongside Jason Dickinson and Ilya Mikheyev.

#13 It would be too soon to recommend Oilers right winger Connor Brown in anything but the deepest of leagues, but he is worth keeping an eye on because the Oilers are not getting consistent production from their wingers and Brown did contribute more offensively before joining the Oilers last season. Brown managed just a dozen points (4 G, 8 A) in 71 games for Edmonton last season, but is up to 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 32 games this season after producing eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past 11 games.

#14 Red Winger centre J.T. Compher has contributed a point per game (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games, a sudden increase in his offensive output. While his ice time is down by 2:33 per game compared to last season, Compher is still getting first-unit power play time in addition to his time at centre on Detroit’s third line. As a player who had 48 and 52 points, respectively, in the previous two seasons, Compher is behind his previous scoring pace, but if he remains productive, his ice time will likely climb.

#15 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a consistent contributor but has elevated his level of play in the past month. In 14 games, he has 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 30 shots on goal. Bjorkstrand gets first unit power play time for the Kraken, but only five of his 23 points this season have come with the man advantage. The recent uptick in his production has come at even strength, where he has more recently been playing with Shane Wright and Eeli Tolvanen. Bjorkstrand tallied a career-high 59 points (20 G, 39 A) last season, with 25 points on the power play, so that would seem to be an area that still has room for further improvement.

#16 Vegas Golden Knights winger Ivan Barbashev has been sidelined with an upper-body injury and it’s worth pointing out what a big hole that leaves in the lineup. Barbarshev has 26 points during five-on-five play and Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov is the only player in the league with more points during five-on-five play. Certainly, playing with Jack Eichel is a big part of Barbashev’s success, and Pavel Dorofeyev has joined Eichel and Stone on Vegas’ top line with Barbashev out of the lineup. Dorofeyev played 19:31 in Thursday’s win against Vancouver, the second-highest ice time of his career.

#17 As the Pittsburgh Penguins may be turning around a season that looked hopelessly lost, defenceman Matt Grzelcyk has turned into a solid contributor, putting up nine points (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games. Eight of Grzelcyk’s 17 points this season have come on the power play and the Penguins are running a rare power play with two defencemen on the top unit and it’s been Grzelcyk and Kris Letang in those roles, with Erik Karlsson on PP2.

#18 There are ups and downs along the path for Montreal Canadiens goaltender Samuel Montembeault, who has had nine games this season in which he has allowed at least four goals, but he has a .914 save percentage to go along with a 4-3 record in seven starts this month. He has 7.73 Goals Saved Above Expected this season, which ranks eighth in the league, ahead of Igor Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, and Jacob Markstrom. Wins might not come so easily for the Canadiens goaltender, but his performance thus far makes him a legitimate fantasy option and it backs up Team Canada’s choice to include him on the roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off.

#19 Sticking with all situations Goals Saved Above Expected but looking at the low end of the spectrum, the goaltenders with the fewest Goals Saved Above Expected this season: Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (-14.53), San Jose’s Alexandar Georgiev (-13.56), Columbus’ Daniil Tarasov (-11.39), Utah’s Connor Ingram (-9.61), and Carolina’s Spencer Martin (-9.56). From that group, Swayman obviously stands out, given the strong track record that he had prior to this season, but Ingram had an excellent season in 2023-2024, so his decline before getting hurt is notable, too. The goaltenders at the top of the list might be surprising, too, at least after Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (+22.84). The rest of the top five are: Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal (+17.51), Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz (+13.46), Seattle’s Joey Daccord (+11.39), and Utah’s Karel Vejmelka (+10.94).

#20 There are some popular players with fantasy managers who are running ice cold lately, including New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton, Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson, the Rangers’ Chris Kreider, and Buffalo’s Alex Tuch, among others. Hamilton has gone seven games without a point and his ice time has dropped below 18 minutes in three of his past four games. In his past five games, Pettersson has zero points and eight shots on goal, while averaging 16:50 of ice time per game. Kreider recorded his first (and only) assist of the season on December 6th and has since gone six straight games without a point, though he does have 17 shots on goal in that span. Tuch has one point (1 G, 0 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past six games and played a season-low 14:34 against Montreal on Tuesday.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – What to make of the Buffalo Sabres – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 14 Dec 2024 16:41:42 +0000

_{ST. LOUIS, MO - FEBRUARY 25: Sabres center Tage Thompson (72) during a NHL game between the Buffalo Sabres and the St. Louis Blues on February 25, 2022, at Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire),}

How should we define the 2024-25 Buffalo Sabres? On paper, they’re not a terrible team. Tage Thompson is an elite goal scorer, and Alex Tuch is a good first-line forward and well suited to being Thompson’s accomplish. Rasmus Dahlin, though currently out with a back injury, is a high-end offensive blueliner, and the Sabres also have two promising young defensemen on the rise in Owen Power and Bowen Byram. In net, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has shown that he can be a solid option.

This isn’t a good team either, though. The Sabres do have some offensive depth, especially with Jason Zucker enjoying a comeback campaign (seven goals and 20 points through 29 appearances), but their overall scoring still isn’t anything special. The blueliners do have a mixture of talent and promise, but as a squad, the Sabres have struggled on defense, as evidenced by the team ranking 22nd in xGA/60 (3.13) per Moneypuck. Those shortcomings have trickled down to Luukkonen, who has an 8-8-3 record, 2.79 GAA and .903 save percentage in 20 starts despite a passable plus-2.6 goals saved above expected.

More than anything, Buffalo is inconsistent. Sometimes this group can click, which led to Buffalo looking like a potential contender for a playoff spot earlier in the campaign, but other times they fall apart. Buffalo has lost its last eight games, dropping its record to 11-14-4.

That kind of inconsistency would be more forgivable if Buffalo was a rebuilding team, but is that still an appropriate definition for the Sabres? They certainly do still have younger players like defensemen Power and Byram, forwards Dylan Cozens and Zach Benson as well as goaltender Devon Levi honing his game in the minors. None of those five have celebrated their 24th birthday yet, so it’s reasonable to believe their game will continue to grow.

At the same time, Tuch and Thompson are already in their prime, albeit in the early stages at 28 and 27 years old, respectively. Dahlin is still young but also in his seventh campaign, so ideally this is a foundation that should have started to get results by now.

But those results never come. You could easily make an argument that this is a rebuilding team even with those three either in or approaching their prime, but you could have made the argument that basically every Sabres team over the last decade has been a rebuilding squad. At some point, you need to transition from rebuild.

It’s been nine years since Jack Eichel was selected as the No. 2 overall pick to be the Sabres’ future. It’s been six years since Dahlin was selected as the No. 1 overall pick to headline Buffalo’s defense. It’s been four years since Power was taken with the top pick, giving the Sabres a potentially amazing blue-line duo. It’s been three years since that relationship soured to the point where Buffalo traded him to Vegas.

Buffalo hasn’t participated in a single playoff game over that span. That’d be bad enough, but the drought dates back even further. When Buffalo was last a playoff team in 2011, Tomas Vanek was the Sabres’ leading scorer and Thompson’s age. Tyler Ennis was among the team’s promising young forwards while Tyler Myers was a sophomore coming off a Calder Trophy-winning campaign. Ryan Miller was in his prime, having won the Vezina Trophy the previous year. Lindy Ruff was the bench boss… well, actually, that’s true now too… but there were six bench bosses for Buffalo between Ruff’s tenure with the team that ended during the 2012-13 campaign and his current assignment with the team.

The Sabres’ playoff appearance drought is the longest in NHL history. That’s got to way on the team, and you have to wonder if it will eventually lead to talented players getting frustrated in Buffalo as it has for others in the past. Still, it’s not as if this is a doomed team.

As stated at the top, there are positives to be found in this roster, and the place we’re judging the Sabres from now might be at or near their low point. There’s still season enough for them to turn this thing around. If they don’t, there is still hope for the future with this young group…even if that promise feels a little hollow after so many other failed rebuild attempts.

Calgary Flames (Tue vs. BOS, Thu vs. OTT, Sat vs. CHI)

The Flames have just three games scheduled for next week, but all those contests are at home, and it’s a pretty favorable schedule. Boston, which the Flames will host Tuesday, did have a 7-2-0 stretch from Nov. 21-Dec. 7, but the Bruins’ have fallen back after big losses to Winnipeg and Seattle over their past two games. After facing the Bruins, Calgary will host Ottawa and Chicago on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. Neither of those adversaries are in a playoff position.

Jonathan Huberdeau’s eight-year, $84 million contract is looking like it might go down as one of the worst contracts in recent memory, but he’s at least hot at the moment, providing four goals and nine points across his past six appearances. Will he keep that up? It’s possible, but it’s hard to get too excited. His 11 goals and 21 points through 30 outings overall still puts him on pace to get 57 points, which isn’t bad, but it’s well below the type of numbers he put up in Florida. Additionally, he has a 21.6 shooting percentage compared to his career average of 12.5, so if anything, Huberdeau’s benefited from some good puck luck and is more likely to slow as the campaign progresses than maintain that overall scoring pace.

If Huberdeau has potentially overperformed, would Andrei Kuzmenko be at the other end of the spectrum? No one expects him to repeat his 39-goal, 74-point performance from 2022-23, but is his goal and 10 points through 28 outings in 2024-25 simply the result of bad luck? His 3.3 shooting percentage is unusually low, but I’m more concerned about his decline in shots. He’s averaging just 4.1 shots/60, down from 6.8 last year.

Of his 30 shots this campaign, 19 have been fired from high-danger locations, which does put him ahead of the league average for forwards of 12.8, so that is a little bit of a silver lining. He’s on track for 52 high-danger shots this campaign, which would be down from 60 last year, a drop of 13.3 percent, whereas his overall shot total is on track to finish at 82, compared to 121 in 2023-24, a decline of 32.2 percent. So a deeper dive suggests things might not be quite as bad as they seem -- at least in terms of shot quality -- but it’s still not good, just less bad.

It's fair to believe that Kuzmenko’s shooting percentage will climb as the campaign progresses, but unless he starts getting a bit more aggressive with the puck, I wouldn’t count on him putting up numbers sufficient to give him relevance in the majority of fantasy leagues.

We might see better from Nazem Kadri, though, at least relative to his current point pace. He has 10 goals and 19 points in 30 appearances this campaign, which is a far cry from his 75-point showing in 2023-24. Kadri has been a steady contributor recently, though, supplying five goals and 11 points through his past 13 outings. He’s not a safe bet to reach the 70-point milestone again, but he was getting significantly fewer assists than is normal early in the campaign, and that seems to be balancing out and is likely to continue to do so. There’s a good chance he’ll finish the season as Calgary’s scoring leader.

Colorado Avalanche (Mon @ VAN, Thu @ SJS, FRI @ ANA, Sun vs. SEA)

The Avalanche will start next week on the road, playing in Vancouver on Monday, San Jose on Thursday and Anaheim on Friday. Colorado will then conclude the week by hosting the Kraken.

Colorado acquired Mackenzie Blackwood along with Givani Smith and a 2027 fifth-round pick from San Jose in exchange for Alexandar Georgiev, Nikolai Kovalenko, a 2025 fifth-round pick and a 2026 second-round selection.

With Blackwood on side, the Avalanche have now completely changed their goaltending tandem. They started with Georgiev and Justus Annunen, and now have Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood. The 32-year-old Wedgewood started the campaign with Nashville, posting a 1-2-1 record, 3.69 GAA and .878 save percentage through five appearances, but he’s done far better since joining the Avalanche, going 3-2-0 with a 1.92 GAA and a .931 save percentage across five outings. Of course, that’s a small sample size, and Wedgewood typically hasn’t been more than an acceptable backup goaltender, so Blackwood will be needed too.

For his part, Blackwood had a 6-9-3 record, 3.00 GAA and .909 save percentage in 19 appearances with the Sharks before the trade. He has a plus-3.9 goals saved above expected this campaign, per Moneypuck, so he’s been solid when factoring out the Sharks’ defense. Speaking of that defense, San Jose ranks 29th in xGA/60 (3.36) while Colorado is 13th (2.95). That should lead to Blackwood putting up meaningfully better numbers post-trade, and naturally, his winning percentage should improve too now that he has the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and defenseman Cale Makar providing him with goal support.

Having Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen naturally helps too. That duo wasn’t available at the start of the campaign, but they’re in the lineup now, providing some critical secondary scoring. Nichushkin and Lehkonen have each supplied four goals through six games in December. They won’t match MacKinnon and Rantanen in terms of points, but they’re fantastic for Colorado to have on the top six.

Edmonton Oilers (Mon vs. FLA, Thu vs. BOS, Sat vs. SJS, Sun vs. OTT)

The Oilers will be at home next week, hosting the Panthers on Monday, the Bruins on Thursday, the Sharks on Saturday and the Senators on Sunday. Edmonton has been fantastic recently, winning seven of its past eight games to improve to 17-10-2 on the campaign, so the Oilers will be looking to stay hot.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have unsurprisingly been a major factor in Edmonton’s recent success, providing 15 points (five goals) and 14 points (six), respectively, over their past eight games. Vasily Podkolzin (three goals, five points) and Connor Brown (one goal, five points) have been less expected contributors. Podkolzin has benefited from playing in a top-six role, but he still might lose that job once Viktor Arvidsson (undisclosed) is available. It would be a little surprising if Arvidsson, who has been out since Nov. 12, returned next week, but he has resumed skating and might attend a team practice soon.

As for Brown, while there was some hope of him playing alongside his old OHL teammate, McDavid, when he first joined the Oilers, that’s never panned out. The 30-year-old has been playing strictly in a bottom-six capacity and has received almost no power-play time this campaign, so while his four goals and 10 points through 29 appearances aren’t bad under the circumstances, Brown isn’t in a position to increase that scoring pace.

In goal, Stuart Skinner has stabilized after a rough start to the campaign, posting a 4-1-0 record, 1.41 GAA and .947 save percentage across his past five starts. He had a similar track in 2023-24 with a rocky opening to the season followed by mostly strong play beyond that, so perhaps history is repeating.

Florida Panthers (Mon @ EDM, Wed @ MIN, Fri vs. STL, Sun vs. TBL)

Florida will open next week with road games against Edmonton and Minnesota on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. The Panthers will then host the Blues on Friday and play in Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Matthew Tkachuk was one of the hottest forwards in the league from Nov. 19-Dec. 7, supplying six goals and 19 points across 10 appearances. However, he’s been held off the scoresheet in each of his last two outings, so while he’s a fantastic forward regardless, his latest hot streak might be over.

To be fair, though, Florida as a squad has managed just one goal (excluding the shootout) over its past two games, so it’s not just Tkachuk who has cooled off. That’s just a mini-slump on the Panthers’ end, but Anton Lundell has been cold for longer. He hasn’t recorded a point across his past five appearances, leaving him at eight goals and 19 points through 29 outings in 2024-25.

Most of Lundell’s success came from an amazing start to the campaign in which he recorded six goals and 14 points in 14 appearances, but he was also averaging 18:49 of ice time. By contrast, he’s dropped to two goals and five points over his past 15 games and his average during that stretch is 15:39. The 23-year-old is capable, but when everyone is healthy, he typically serves on the third line, which limits his fantasy impact. If injuries result in him moving up to the top six, then he could be a great short-term play.

Los Angeles Kings (Tue @ PIT, Thu @ PHI, Sat @ NSH, Sun @ WSH)

The Kings have a full schedule with four games on the docket next week and just one of their upcoming opponents (the Capitals) occupy a playoff spot. The downside is the Kings will be on the road for the entire week. They’ll play in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, Philadelphia on Thursday, Nashville on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.

When looking at the Kings’ campaign thus far, the player who has most impressed me is Anze Kopitar with his eight goals and 32 points through 29 appearances. We’re currently in a time where several forwards have excelled well past their prime -- Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby being the most obvious examples -- so Kopitar’s longevity has flown under the radar somewhat. The fact that he remains an effective playmaker at the age of 37, is still impressive, though. It wouldn’t be surprising at this point to see him reach the 70-point mark for the 10th time in his career.

Alex Laferriere was nearing his sixth birthday when Kopitar made his NHL debut, but the two are in their second campaign together and the sophomore Laferriere has been coming into his own with 12 goals and 22 points in 29 contests this season. Laferriere has continued to be a steady contributor lately, collecting three goals and seven points across his past seven games.

However, I am a little worried about Laferriere’s 20.0 shooting percentage. That seems rather high and his PDO of 1033 is a touch up there too, which suggests he has been getting a bit of puck luck. I don’t expect a crash, but his goal-scoring pace will likely decline somewhat.

Adrian Kempe’s shooting percentage of 17.9 is on the higher side too. Kempe did have a 16.4 shooting percentage in 2022-23 when he finished with 41 markers, so he’s not too far above his career high, but it’s still a notable step above his career average of 12.7. Like Laferriere, I don’t expect Kempe to collapse, but a small decline might be in his future. Kempe does have 14 goals and 28 points in 29 outings overall.

New Jersey Devils (Tue @ STL, Thu @ CBJ, Sat vs. PIT)

The Devils are set to play just three games next week, but the competition is favorable, so I decided to highlight them. New Jersey will play in St. Louis on Tuesday and Columbus on Thursday before hosting the Penguins on Saturday.

The Devils have a commanding 19-10-3 record compared to their mediocre 38-39-5 finish to 2023-24 and the difference is almost entirely at their end of the ice. New Jersey is allowing just 2.66 goals per game, which is a huge drop from 3.43 last year. But how much of that is thanks to Jacob Markstrom?

The Devils had an xGA/60 of 3.26 last campaign, which suggests that they were a poor defensive team independent of their goaltending. Kaapo Kahkonen and Jake Allen largely held their own with a plus-1.4 and minus-1.9 goals saved above expected, but when the defense is that bad, merely being okay leads to bad results. The Devils also employed Nico Daws, Akira Schmid and Vitek Vanecek, who did even worse by that metric.

Markstrom was brought in over the summer to stabilize the situation, but much like Kahkonen before him, he’s been acceptable, but not brilliant, posting a plus-1.5 goals saved above expected through 22 appearances. The difference is the Devils have burdened their goaltenders far less in 2024-25, as evidenced by their 2.70 xGA/60.

So, while Markstrom certainly hasn’t been a problem, he hasn’t necessarily been their savior. Either way, fantasy managers have can reap the benefits of Markstrom playing in a favorable situation, which has resulted in him posting a 14-6-2 record, 2.41 GAA and .906 save percentage. He’s also hot going into this week with a 3-0-1 record, 1.48 GAA and .933 save percentage over his past four outings.

Allen has been dealing with an upper-body injury, and the Devils’ schedule is spread out enough to allow Markstrom to start in all three games next week. Isaac Poulter will be with New Jersey for the duration of Allen’s injury, but Poulter is unlikely to get a start. The 23-year-old Poulter has struggled in the AHL this campaign with a 3.32 GAA and an .871 save percentage across nine appearances.

Poulter not getting playing time isn’t surprising, but it was a bit eyebrow-raising to see Tomas Tatar out of the lineup Thursday. Perhaps it shouldn’t be, though. Tatar has averaged just 10:41 of ice time this campaign, which is a far cry from even two seasons ago when he logged 15:07 per game. The Devils are a deep team, and it seems like there’s not much of a role for him. I’d be interested to see what would happen if the Devils traded the 34-year-old. He’s on a one-year, $1.8 million contract, so he’s movable, but New Jersey might ultimately decide that they’d rather have him on board as an insurance policy against injuries. If Tatar does find himself in a middle-six role, he might do enough offensively to have some fantasy relevance. As it is, he’s a non-factor in most leagues.

Seattle Kraken (Tue vs. OTT, Thu @ CHI, Sat @ VGK, Sun @ COL)

Seattle will host Ottawa on Tuesday, but the Kraken will spend the remainder of next week on the road, playing in Chicago on Thursday, Vegas on Saturday and Colorado on Sunday.

The Kraken have largely held their own this campaign without being anything special, posting a 15-14-2 record. Joey Daccord has been a major highlight with a 12-6-2 record, 2.42 GAA and .916 save percentage through 20 appearances. We just talked about how Markstrom is benefiting from plenty of support, but Daccord has had to do much more to keep the Kraken afloat. They are tied for 24th in xGA/60 (3.14) and are tied for 16th in goals per game (3.03). For his part, Daccord’s plus-9.2 in goals saved above expected ranks seventh in the league.

Seattle’s offense is mediocre in part because it lacks star power. Through Friday’s action, 48 players have scored at least 12 goals and none of them play for the Kraken. Seattle’s points leader, Jared McCann, (11 goals, 15 assists), is also outside of the top 47 in that category. The Kraken have nine players who have recorded at least five goals, which is respectable -- the league average is 7.7 per team -- but without a star leading the charge, the offense is still just okay.

Maybe Shane Wright will eventually fill that role. Taken with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, Wright had just a goal and an assist through his first 18 appearances in 2024-25. Then he spent three games as a healthy scratch from Nov. 17-23, and that seemed to do him plenty of good. He’s managed six goals and 11 points across 10 outings since that stint in the press box.

The 22-year-old Matty Beniers has promise too. He had 24 goals and 57 points as a rookie in 2022-23 but took a step back in 2023-24 with 15 goals and 37 points. The 2024-25 campaign has been a mixed bag -- he has four goals and 17 points in 31 games -- but he’s done well recently with seven assists across his past seven appearances.

Vancouver Canucks (Mon @ COL, Wed @ UTA, Thu @ VGK, Say vs. OTT)

The Canucks will split next week between two games at home (Monday vs. the Avalanche and Saturday vs. the Senators) and two road tilts (Wednesday in Utah and Thursday in Vegas). The Canucks are 15-8-5, which is pretty good, but in a tough Pacific Division, that’s only good for fourth place.

Going into the campaign, it wasn’t clear if Vancouver would be able to hold its own without starting goaltender Thatcher Demko, who was dealing with a knee injury. Fortunately for the Canucks, Kevin Lankinen stepped up and now has a 14-4-3 record, 2.52 GAA and .912 save percentage across 21 outings.

Lankinen became the clear starter during Demko’s absence, but his role is less clear after Demko made his return. The 29-year-old Demko made his season debut Tuesday, though he left something to be desired, stopping 21 of 25 shots en route to a 4-3 overtime loss to St. Louis. That was followed by Lankinen posting a 27-save shutout Thursday.

We shouldn’t judge Demko based on only one start, but it might take him some time to shake off the rust. With Vancouver’s upcoming schedule relatively full, the Canucks will probably split the workload between Lankinen and Demko, which will give the latter more time to get eased in. If Lankinen keeps playing like he has been, and Demko eventually finds his rhythm, then Vancouver would have a great 1A/1B situation on its hands.

The Canucks also got J.T. Miller back, who was absent for 10 games due to personal reasons. He looked good in his return Thursday, providing two assists, including one on the power play. Now that he’s back, Pius Suter is likely to serve in a reduced capacity. During Miller’s 10-game absence, Suter had five goals and nine points while averaging 18:14 of ice time, but Suter dropped to 15:15 on Thursday and wasn’t used at all with the man advantage for the first time since Nov. 14. If you’ve been enjoying Suter’s recent success, now might be the time to explore your alternatives.

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Washington powers on with Ovechkin, Chicago looks for change – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 07 Dec 2024 16:07:18 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - NOVEMBER 30: Washington Capitals defenseman Jakob Chychrun (6) scores a goal during a NHL game between the Washington Capitals and New Jersey Devils at Prudential Center on November 30, 2024 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Washington had an incredible 13-4-1 record through Nov. 18 thanks in large part to its league-leading 4.33 goals per game. However, that offensive success was built around Alex Ovechkin, who had 15 goals and 25 points through 18 appearances, so when he suffered a fractured left fibula, it was reasonable to wonder how much his absence would impact the Capitals. Going into Friday’s action, Washington seemed to largely be managing the injury well, posting a 4-2-1 record in its first seven games without Ovechkin.

The Capitals offense has certainly taken a hit, but they’ve still managed an impressive 3.43 goals per game since Ovechkin was sidelined. Tom Wilson (three goals, six points), Dylan Strome (two goals, six points) and Connor McMichael (two goals, five points) have been of particular importance over that seven-game stretch.

However, none of those forwards are actually the Capitals’ scoring leader over the stretch without Ovechkin. That honor belongs to Jakob Chychrun, who has three goals and seven points across his past seven outings. Chychrun, who was acquired from Ottawa over the summer, has been a fantastic addition, collecting eight goals and 15 points through 20 appearances. Keep in mind, though, that his 19.0 shooting percentage is far ahead of his career average of 7.2, so we’ll probably eventually see a drop off.

Still, this stretch has shown that Washington is a team with some decent depth and might prove to be a serious contender come playoff time.

One team that almost certainly won’t be playing come the postseason is Chicago. There’s still plenty of hockey left, of course, but with an 8-16-2 record, the Blackhawks seem set to miss the playoffs for the fifth straight year.

Connor Bedard has been fine with five goals and 19 points in 26 outings, but for a player who has as much promise as him, even more is hoped for. Still, it would help if he had more support. Ryan Donato is the only other Chicago player with at least 15 points (10 goals, five assists). To put that into context, 160 players at reached the 15-point mark through Thursday’s action, so an average team should have five players who have reached that milestone.

Goaltender Petr Mrazek has been alright, but he’s not getting much support on offense or defense, which has left him with a 7-11-1 record, 2.86 GAA and .905 save percentage across 19 outings. Chicago fired head coach Luke Richardson after Chicago suffered its fourth straight loss Wednesday and appointed Anders Sorensen as the interim bench boss. Richardson finished his Blackhawks tenure with a 57-118-15 record, so by that measure his departure isn’t surprising, but given that Chicago has been in the midst of a rebuild, it’s hard to be too critical of him.

Still, perhaps Sorensen, who spent the previous seven campaigns coaching for AHL Rockford, including three years as the head coach going into 2024-25, can help accelerate the rebuild somewhat by guiding the team’s young players. He already has familiarity with many of the club’s prospects thanks to his previous role. A fresh perspective might also be good for Bedard, who is naturally critical to Chicago’s long-term goals.

It will be a while before we know if the change to Sorensen was the right move, and success, at least in the short term, won’t necessarily be measured in wins and losses, but the Blackhawks will be an interesting team to monitor.

Buffalo Sabres (Mon vs DET, Wed vs NYR, Sat @ WAS, Sun @ TOR)

The Sabres have hit a rough patch, dropping their last five games to fall to 11-12-3 on the campaign. To be fair, most of those games were against tough opponents (Minnesota, Vancouver, Colorado and Winnipeg handed out four of the five defeats), but Buffalo has more difficult matchups on the horizon. The Sabres will host the Red Wings and the Rangers on Monday and Wednesday, respectively, before taking to the road to face Washington on Saturday and Toronto on Sunday.

Rasmus Dahlin left Tuesday’s 5-4 loss to Colorado because of back spasms and missed Thursday’s 3-2 overtime defeat to the Jets because of the issue. Coach Lindy Ruff described the situation like this via Buffalo’s Twitter account, “It should be short-term, but you never know.” In other words, Dahlin might be fine to play in all four of next week’s games.

He’s a vital part of the Sabres’ blue line, so no one defenseman can fill in for him when he’s not available. That said, Henri Jokiharju should see an increase in even-strength ice time -- Jokiharju logged 20:23 of ice time Thursday, his most since Oct. 16 -- and Owen Power should serve on the first power play unit for however long Dahlin’s out.

Jokiharju doesn’t have much fantasy value regardless, but Power has three goals and 15 points in 26 appearances in 2024-25 despite recording no points with the man advantage, so if he’s given an opportunity to play on the top power-play unit for any extended stretch, that’d be rather interesting.

Regardless of which defensemen dress, Buffalo needs them to help make life easier on the goaltenders. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen could certainly have done more recently -- he posted a record of 0-2-2 with a 3.20 GAA and an .895 save percentage across his past four starts -- but he also faced at least 30 shots in three of those four games, including 41 shots in Tuesday’s tilt.

James Reimer has been used sparingly, posting a 1-1-0 record, 2.05 GAA and .923 save percentage in two starts since being claimed by Buffalo off waivers Nov. 13, but the Sabres’ busy schedule means that he should play in at least one game next week.

Carolina Hurricanes ( Tue vs SJS, Fri vs OTT, Sun vs CBJ)

The Hurricanes are playing in just three games next week, but I still wanted to feature them because those matchups are favorable. All three of the matches will be in Carolina. The Hurricanes will host San Jose on Tuesday, Ottawa on Friday and Columbus on Sunday.

None of those opponents are good defensively -- Ottawa ranks 25th in goals allowed per game (3.20), which is the best of the three -- so this should be a good stretch for the Blue Jackets’ scorers. Perhaps Martin Necas can build some breathing room in the Art Ross Trophy fight. At the time of writing, he’s in first place with 41 points (14 goals), narrowly edging out Nathan MacKinnon (40 points), Kirill Kaprizov (39), Jack Eichel (38) and Sam Reinhart (37).

Necas was held off the scoresheet in back-to-back games from Nov. 29-30 for the first time this season, but he’s responded by scoring two goals and four points across his past two outings.

One lower profile Hurricanes who’s hot is Eric Robinson. The 29-year-old has never recorded more than 27 points in a single season, but he’s well on his way to shattering that record after recording eight goals and 17 points across 26 appearances. Exercise some caution here: His shooting percentage is an unreasonably high 25.0, and he’s still averaging just 12:15 of ice time with no power-play role, so it’s hard to imagine him keeping up this pace. Still, he’s hot at the moment with three goals and four points across his past five appearances, and when coupled with the Blue Jackets’ upcoming scheduled, there’s reason to hope that the good times aren’t over yet.

We should also see continued production out of defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere. He’s fitting in nicely with Carolina, scoring five goals and 21 points in 26 outings, including a goal and seven points over his past six games. Gostisbehere’s success is largely tethered to the power play, which accounts for 15 of his points.

His presence has corresponded with Brent Burns shifting to the second power-play unit this year, which has led to Burns recording no points with the man advantage so far in 2024-25. Burns has a goal and seven points in 26 outings overall, which puts him on track to finish below the 40-point mark for just the second time in 12 seasons (the last time was the shortened 2020-21 campaign).

Columbus Blue Jackets (Tue vs PHI, Thu vs WAS, Sat vs ANA, Sun @ CAR)

The Blue Jackets are 11-11-3, which isn’t great, but they have done better than many projected going into the campaign. Columbus will see if it can maintain that level next week when it hosts Philadelphia, Washington and Anaheim on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, respectively. The Blue Jackets will then travel to Carolina for a game Sunday.

Kirill Marchenko has played a big role in Columbus’ better than expected results. The 24-year-old has 10 goals and 24 points in 25 games this season, putting him well on his way to shattering his mark of 42 points in 2023-24. You’ll usually see him sharing the ice with Sean Monahan, who has fit in nicely with Columbus, providing eight goals and 22 points through 25 appearances.

For the last few weeks, Dmitri Voronkov has typically been the third member of that line. He missed the start of the campaign with an upper-body injury and registered just one point (a goal) across his first six games of 2024-25, but the 24-year-old sophomore has hit his stride, supplying five goals and 10 points over his past 10 outings. He’s still on just 17 percent of Yahoo rosters, so he might be a nice pickup if he’s still available in your league.

On the blue line, Zach Werenski has been a standout performer for the Blue Jackets with eight goals and 27 points through 25 appearances. He’s one of the hottest defensemen in the entire league, recording five goals and 17 points across his past 10 outings.

Minnesota Wild (Tue vs UTA, Thu vs EDM, Sat vs PHI, Sun vs VGK)

The Wild have won their past four games to improve to 17-4-4. Minnesota will try to keep the good times rolling next week, which will begin with a road game against Utah on Tuesday. After that match, Minnesota will spend the rest of the week at home, playing against Edmonton, Philadelphia and Vegas on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Joel Eriksson Ek sustained an injury Tuesday and is week-to-week, and there’s no indication that Mats Zuccarello is close to returning from the lower-body issue that’s kept him out of the lineup since Nov. 14.

If Zuccarello were healthy, he’d almost certainly be playing alongside Kirill Kaprizov and Marco Rossi. His absence led to the lines being shaken up, and Eriksson Ek did skate on the top line with Kaprizov on Tuesday before he got hurt. With Zuccarello and Eriksson Ek both out, Matt Boldy will likely play regularly alongside Kaprizov and Rossi. Boldy has 11 goals and 24 points in 25 appearances, so that’s a strong trio. The forward corps after that, though, looks thin due to the injuries.

Marcus Johansson, Ryan Hartman and Marcus Foligno currently comprise the second line, but none of them have even reached double digits in points. The third unit is Devin Shore, Frederick Gaudreau and Yakov Trenin, which has a combined 15 points this season -- 14 of them from Gaudreau.

Fortunately for the Wild, Filip Gustavsson hasn’t needed much offensive help this year. He’s 12-4-3 with a 2.04 GAA and a .929 save percentage in 19 appearances.

New York Islanders (Tue vs LAK, Thu vs CHI, Sun @ CHI)

The Islanders have three games on the schedule, but two of them are against the lowly Blackhawks -- New York will host them Thursday and play in Chicago on Sunday -- so the Islanders are in a good position there. New York will also host the Kings on Tuesday.

We just discussed how Minnesota’s offense looks thin due to injuries, and the Islanders are in a similar boat without Anthony Duclair (lower body) and Mathew Barzal (upper body), who have logged just five and 10 games, respective. Due to their absences, the Islanders have just two players with at least 20 points, and even then, just barely -- Anders Lee has 21 while Kyle Palmieri has 20. The result is no Islanders player is within the top 50 of the Art Ross Trophy race.

Andrew Gross of Newsday reported Friday that Duclair and Barzal are skating on their own, which is better than not skating at all, but there are several steps between that and playing, so I wouldn’t count on them returning during the upcoming week.

Lee has been one of the few recent bright spots, providing four goals and eight points across his past six games. He’s on a four-game scoring streak through Thursday’s action. Simon Holmstrom appears to have cooled, though. He had back-to-back multi-goal games from Nov. 29-30, but he hasn’t found the back of the net since. Holmstrom has done fine with seven goals and 15 points in 27 outings, but he’s not worth employing in most fantasy leagues except when he’s hot.

New York Rangers (Mon vs CHI, Wed @ BUF, Sat vs LAK, Sun @ STL)

New York is set to host Chicago on Monday, play in Buffalo on Wednesday, have a home game against the Kings on Saturday and conclude the week by playing in St. Louis on Sunday. Let’s not dwell on the schedule, though, the Rangers had an eventful Friday, and I want to dive right into it.

New York traded Jacob Trouba to Anaheim in exchange for a fourth-round pick and Urho Vaakanainen. Importantly, the Rangers didn’t retain any salary, so Trouba’s $8 million cap hit through 2025-26 is now off their books. New York then signed Igor Shesterkin to an eight-year, $92 million contract that will begin in 2025-26 after his current four-year, $22.67 million deal expires.

Let’s start with the defensive changes. Trouba had a fantastic eight goals and 50 points in 82 games with Winnipeg in 2018-19 and was then dealt to the Rangers in the summer of 2019 in exchange for a 2019 first-round selection (Ville Heinola) and Neal Pionk. The Rangers promptly signed Trouba to his current eight-year, $56 million contract.

Unfortunately for New York, the Rangers inked Trouba at the height of his offensive contributions. Over his five campaigns with the Rangers going into 2024-25, Trouba reached the 30-point mark twice, but never hit 40. To be fair, Trouba is a big body, plays a physical game and blocks a ton of shots, so he brings things to the table outside of offense. He also served as the team captain from 2022 until he was traded, highlighting his importance in the locker room. Still, his cap hit was too high for what he brought.

It's telling that the Rangers got very little in return for him, and even with that, some questioned if they won this trade simply by virtue of clearing that cap space. But what did they receive outside of that draft pick? Vaakanainen was taken with the No. 18 overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, but he never developed as hoped. Instead, he should be regarded as a depth defenseman who will likely bounce between the third pairing and the press box. He is also on the injured reserve list due to an upper-body injury, so it might be a bit before he makes his Rangers debut.

Rather than Vaakanainen playing regularly, we might see the Rangers utilize Victor Mancini more with Trouba out. The 22-year-old Mancini has a goal, four points, seven hits and 12 blocks in 10 appearances with New York in 2024-25, and he’s also provided two goals and five points in six AHL outings. Don’t get too excited over Mancini’s offensive numbers, though. He wasn’t much of a producer in the NCAA, recording just four goals and 10 points across 40 outings with the University of Nebraska-Omaha as a Junior in 2023-24.

As for locking up Shesterkin, the cap hit is substantial, but not surprising. He’s proven himself to be a top-tier goaltender, and we’re in a period where the cap seems to be steadily climbing, so there’s logic behind the number. Shesterkin has struggled recently with a 2-7-0 record, 3.93 GAA and .882 save percentage across nine appearances, but he should rebound.

St. Louis Blues (Tue @ VAN, Thu vs SJS, Sat @ DAL, Sun vs NYR)

St. Louis has won four of its past five games, improving to 13-12-2 this season. That still puts the Blues outside of a playoff spot, but at least they’re trending in the right direction. The Blues will play in Vancouver on Tuesday, host the Sharks on Thursday, visit Dallas on Saturday and play at home Sunday versus the Rangers.

Dylan Holloway has been a major part of the Blues’ recent success, contributing four goals and eight points across his past five outings. That brings him up to eight goals and 16 points in 27 appearances this year, but he’s been inconsistent, so enjoy the good times while they last, but be prepared for the other shoe to eventually drop if you grab the 23-year-old during his hot streak.

Jordan Binnington is another extremely inconsistent play, but he has been more hit than miss lately, providing a 4-2-1 record, 2.10 GAA and .925 save percentage across his past seven appearances. He’s 8-9-2 with a 2.87 GAA and .900 save percentage in 20 outings overall and will probably average out as a low-to-mid tier starter this season.

Robert Thomas might still have a great campaign, though. He did miss 12 games from Oct. 24-Nov. 17 because of a fractured ankle, but with that injury now well behind him, Thomas seems to be heating up, providing three goals and six points across his past four games. This might just be the beginning of a longer hot streak for Thomas, who set a career high in 2023-24 with 86 points.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Tue @ NJD, Thu vs ANA, Sat @ DET, Sun vs BUF)

Toronto is having a fantastic campaign with a 16-7-2 record, and the Maple Leafs have won seven of their past eight games. They’ll look to maintain that momentum next week, starting with a road contest against New Jersey. The Maple Leafs will then host Anaheim on Thursday, play in Detroit on Saturday and return home to play against the Sabres on Sunday.

Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies returned from injury Nov. 30, adding to Toronto’s success. Matthews has been especially good since returning, supplying three goals and five points across three appearances, bringing him up to eight goals and 16 points through 16 outings. Matthews tends to score goals in bunches, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him continue to tickle the twine over the upcoming week.

Max Domi (lower body) and Max Pacioretty (lower body) have also been skating with the Maple Leafs recently, so they might be nearing a return too. Once they do, we might see Nicholas Robertson fall out of the lineup. Robertson has been the main disappointment in what has otherwise been a great campaign for Toronto. He has just two points (both goals) in 22 outings in 2024-25. Robertson did find the back of the net Nov. 30, but he was held off the scoresheet in two games since, so that marker didn’t seem to help spark him.

In net, Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz will probably each start in two games next week. Stolarz is 8-4-2 with a 2.23 GAA and .924 save percentage in 14 outings, while Woll is 7-2-0 with a 2.11 GAA and a .922 save percentage in nine appearances, so the Maple Leafs can happily treat them as a 1A-1B tandem.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – BUFFALO SABRES – Team Preview

Sun, 22 Sep 2024 16:00:02 +0000

_{MONTREAL, QC - FEBRUARY 21: Look on Buffalo Sabres center Tage Thompson (72) during the Buffalo Sabres versus the Montreal Canadiens game on February 21, 2024, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)}

Although all eyes were on young goaltender Devon Levi, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen proved to be the star of the 2023-24 Sabres, posting a 27-22-4 record, 2.57 GAA and .910 save percentage across 54 contests. However, his strong netminding was undermined by forwards Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch, Dylan Cozens, and Casey Mittelstadt all seeing meaningful declines in offensive production when compared to a season prior. The end result was that Buffalo finished 39-37-6 and missed the playoffs for a 13th consecutive year.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Since the Sabres replaced Lindy Ruff as the head coach, they have cycled through six bench bosses and none of them could lead Buffalo to the postseason, so Buffalo went back to the last thing that worked by rehiring the now 64-year-old Ruff. Outside of the coaching change, Buffalo bought out Skinner and let Victor Olofsson walk as an unrestricted free agent. Meanwhile, they brought in Ryan McLeod in a trade with Edmonton, who might play on the third line alongside Jason Zucker, who was inked to a one-year contract.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? The Sabres have endured the longest stretch between playoff berths in NHL history, but that might come to an end this season. Luukkonen was great last year, and at the age of 25, seems well positioned to be a high-end starter for years to come. Combine that with Levi’s high-end potential, and Buffalo’s goaltending is looking good. What Buffalo needs is for its forward corps to recapture some of the magic it had in 2022-23. If that happens, then the Sabres will be a great, well-rounded squad.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Of course, Luukkonen has just 100 career NHL games under his belt, and he wasn’t that effective in 2022-23, so there’s no guarantee he won’t regress, and for all Levi’s potential, he’s completely unproven. Buffalo did try to hedge its bet by inking free agent James Reimer, but he’s 35 now and probably won’t be able to save the Sabres if their young goaltenders struggle. On top of that, playing in the Atlantic Division will do Buffalo no favors. Sure, the Sabres have promise, but Ottawa and Detroit improved over the summer while Montreal’s rebuild is making progress. Throw Florida, Boston, Toronto, and Tampa Bay into that mix, and even a Buffalo team that plays capably might still miss the playoffs.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: After buying out Skinner, there’s a path for Zach Benson to play a bigger role this campaign, and the 19-year-old might take advantage. He had a serviceable 2023-24 campaign with 11 goals and 30 points across 71 contests while averaging 14:31 of ice time and has the potential to do so much better. Also keep an eye on Jack Quinn, who was limited to 27 games last year, but looked good when he was healthy with nine goals and 19 points. Now with 104 NHL contests under his belt, it’ll be interesting to see what he could do if he stays healthy this year.

FORWARD

Tage Thompson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	39	45	84	1.05

Thompson’s 2023-2024 season, like that of the whole of the Buffalo Sabres, was a frustrating one. Although he finished the season leading the team with 29 goals, he missed 11 games and dealt with an injury to his wrist that affected his shooting. His power play production dropped from 20 goals in 2022-2023 to nine as Buffalo’s power play fell apart. Showcasing how well Thompson performed despite the injury helped highlight the opportunities that have slipped through the Sabres hands the past two seasons. That he wanted to hurry back into the lineup after the injury to help his team that struggled with consistency makes sense. He’s become a leader in the room and is deeply motivated to help end their playoff drought. But playing through an issue that clearly hindered his greatest weapon, his shot, only proved to add to the frustration the team sorted through. Thompson showed late in the season that when he is healthy, he’s as dangerous a scorer as there can be in the NHL. His creativeness with the puck, his size, his hands and his shot make him extremely difficult to defend. Giving him space lets him get clear to fire away but pressing him can lead to being put on his highlight reel when he toe-drags or nutmegs the defender. Good health and a more direct power play scheme along with Lindy Ruff’s style of play could lead Thompson to a monster season.

Dylan Cozens

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	22	32	54	0.66

Two seasons ago, Dylan Cozens appeared to have arrived in a big way as an offensive star in Buffalo. His 31 goals in 2022-2023 firmly put him in place behind Tage Thompson as Buffalo’s No. 2 center and set the stage for the Sabres to have a dangerous one-two punch on their top two lines. But 2023-2024 proved to mimic Cozens’s 2021-2022 season a bit too closely. He posted 18 goals with 29 assists last season, a mark that put him fifth on the team in scoring. He struggled with his consistency on offence and battled with his own confidence in his shot as his task load increased throughout the year. Following the trade of Casey Mittelstadt, Cozens become the de facto faceoff man and ultimately one of their most important players on the penalty kill. But Cozens struggled to win draws (45.5 percent on the year) although Buffalo’s penalty killing greatly improved going from 77 percent in 2022-2023 to 82.7 percent last season, tied for 12th best in the NHL. Although the strong defensive work is certainly encouraging, it’s offence Cozens wants to help with even more and the Sabres will need it following the buyout of Jeff Skinner. Should he use his solid performance at World Championships (nine goals, two assists in 10 games) to spark him like it did in 2022-2023, it’ll be a big bounce back season for him.

Alex Tuch

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	27	44	71	0.91

On paper, Alex Tuch had a strong season in 2023-2024. He tied with Rasmus Dahlin for the team lead in scoring with 59 points and his 22 goals were fourth most on the team. Being a team leader is a good thing, normally, except when things go poorly, which they did for Buffalo. Tuch battled all season riding the waves of inconsistency with the rest of his teammates, but when on top of his game, he showed why he’s a premier power forward. His ability around the net to score on rebounds is excellent and he again showed that he’s got a dynamite shot from the slot or on the rush off the wing. A player with his size (6-foot-4, 215 pounds) can be a game-changer and, like many of his Sabres teammates, there were quite a few ups and downs throughout the year. Tuch’s body of work through his career shows how dynamic he can be and since coming to Buffalo from Vegas, we’ve been able to see why he’s such a valued player. Last season marked the third time he scored 20-or-more goals, but the drop from 36 to 22 was substantial. As much as Buffalo wanted to recreate that success, something was off in how Tuch, Thompson and Skinner (and later JJ Peterka) were able to play together. This season, Tuch’s childhood dream of playing for Lindy Ruff will come true and he’ll be a vital player in the Sabres’ success.

JJ Peterka

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
72	32	26	58	0.71

The big question last offseason was who among JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn would have a big breakout season in 2023-2024. When Quinn sustained an Achilles tendon injury in the summer, all eyes were on Peterka to see if he would take the next step into becoming one of the top scorers on the Sabres and he lived up to the expectations. Peterka set career highs in goals (28) and points (50) and became a first line player alongside Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, supplanting Jeff Skinner in the process. Peterka used his speed, shot, and creativity with the puck to generate scoring opportunities and did the bulk of his damage at even strength with 25 of his 28 goals coming then. At 22-years old, Peterka taking a step forward like this came at the best time for the Sabres and you could postulate that his rise (as well as the arrival of Zach Benson) helped general manager Kevyn Adams decide to buy out Skinner this summer. Peterka’s skill set was made to flourish with such offensively capable teammates and although Buffalo didn’t play with quite the same speed and attack mentality last season, he was still able to take off. With a new coach in place, opportunity is there for the taking to have Peterka make another big step forward and his ability to play better two-way hockey will give him the ability to shine even brighter.

Jack Quinn

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	25	24	49	0.64

Hopes last season for Jack Quinn were dashed months before the season even began when he ruptured an Achilles tendon during offseason workouts. That injury put him out of action until a week before Christmas and when he returned, the Sabres were already sagging back in the standings and offensively. While Quinn did his best upon his return to jumpstart the team, bad luck took over for him again in late-January when he sustained a lower-body injury in an awkward board collision that kept him out another two months. When he wasn’t on the shelf, Quinn had nine goals and 10 assists in 27 games, a scoring rate of 0.7 points per game. That kind of production being absent from the Sabres lineup was a harsh blow to take for the team and highlighted how there really wasn’t anyone who stepped up to replace him. A fully healthy offseason for Quinn should allow him to be ready to explode on the scene this season as he’s penciled in to play on a line with Dylan Cozens once again. His ability to score from odd shooting angles with peculiar timing makes him a perplexing player to defend and goaltend against and allows him to be dangerous from anywhere in the zone, particularly in the slot. If he has a fully healthy season, the breakout that was anticipated a year ago may come to fruition.

Zach Benson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	15	23	38	0.49

Zach Benson’s first NHL season was loaded with surprises. When the Sabres selected him 13th overall at the 2023 draft, it was stunning that one of the WHL’s top scorers managed to slip that far down the board and into the hands of a team that already had a cadre of high-end prospects in the first place. It was just as surprising when Benson showed during training camp in September that not only was it a mistake for other teams to pass on him but that at 18-years old, he was good enough to be in the NHL right away. Benson earned a spot on the Sabres and took full advantage of his hard skating and hard-working style of play to become arguably the best forechecker on the team. His aggressive skating and ability to annoy opponents worked to his advantage as he was able to force turnovers further up the ice and become an instantly excellent penalty killer. Although he was a big-time scorer in juniors, his 11 goals and 19 assists couldn’t generate a lot of attention for the Calder Trophy. All that aside, with his defensive smarts and instincts already in place and excellent at the NHL level, it’ll only be a matter of time before he finds his stride offensively as he’s extremely creative with the puck and with his shot. It bears watching how much more he will score this season. A major breakout is on the horizon, it’s only a question of when.

Peyton Krebs

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	11	16	27	0.33

The 2023-2024 season proved to be a deeply frustrating one for Peyton Krebs. At 23-years old, he put up four goals and 13 assists and had the lowest offensive output of his career. Krebs played mostly in a fourth-line role between Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo which didn’t exactly help with generating offence, but that was the role he was asked to play and he handled it as best as he could. Krebs was the 17th pick in the 2019 draft, the same year as Dylan Cozens, and the expectations for him as an offensive player have always been high. When he had the opportunity to play up in the Sabres lineup, he struggled and couldn’t click well offensively with wingers like Zach Benson or JJ Peterka. While he possesses an adept ability to make passes and has solid offensive instincts, it hasn’t quite come together for him yet in Buffalo. As he heads into a new season, where he fits into the Buffalo lineup is a bit murky. Ideally, they’d like Krebs to play up in the lineup somewhere, be it at center or the wing, but he’s performed poorly any time he’s been on the wing. With the additions of Ryan McLeod and Sam Lafferty, it would seem the center spot on the third and fourth lines is spoken for unless Krebs forces the issue in camp or winds up playing elsewhere.

Jason Zucker

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	15	14	29	0.38

When the Sabres bought out Jeff Skinner in the offseason, the biggest question GM Kevyn Adams faced was how he was going to replace the point production he provided. When July 1st rolled around, the Sabres made the call for veteran Jason Zucker to address that need. Zucker is a five-time 20-plus goal scorer in the league and is two seasons removed from putting up 27 goals with the Pittsburgh Penguins. At 32-years old, he’s a knowledgeable veteran who knows his role and has always used his speed to his advantage both in the offensive game and as a forechecker. The Sabres will lean on Zucker to play in a role like what they had with Skinner late in the season. He’ll be able to play on any of the top three lines and likely battle with JJ Peterka and Zach Benson for those spots on the left wing. But most importantly, they’ll look for Zucker to find his scoring touch once again. He struggled last season with Arizona and Nashville and put up 14 goals with 18 assists. They would love to see him return to the prowess he had in Pittsburgh or previously with the Minnesota Wild, but should Peterka and Benson outperform him, at the very least the depth Zucker will provide will be greatly appreciated.

Ryan McLeod

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	8	15	23	0.29

One of the newest faces in Buffalo will also be one of, if not, the fastest on the team in Ryan McLeod. The Sabres acquired McLeod from the Edmonton Oilers in a swap that sent 2023 ninth overall pick Matthew Savoie back home to Alberta. The trade was panned by many given Savoie’s lofty draft status, but the specific role McLeod plays was greatly needed in Buffalo. As he showed during the Oilers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final, McLeod’s speed forces the issue on opponents trying to get out of their own zone. His forechecking and ability to recover and regroup rapidly helped provide a defensive presence on a team that desperately needed one up front. His role in Buffalo is expected to be the same and with Lindy Ruff’s system in place, the pressure McLeod puts on opposing puck carriers will be vital. Although he’ll be in a third- or fourth-line role, McLeod isn’t a physical player, but with the presence of others like Jordan Greenway, Sam Lafferty and Beck Malenstyn in Buffalo, he won’t have to be. His five-on-five possession numbers shined in Edmonton (career 54.7 percent shot attempts for at five-on-five) and he did that away from all their elite scoring forwards. If he can carry that over to Buffalo, it’ll provide a huge lift to their overall performance.

DEFENCE

Rasmus Dahlin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	18	50	68	0.83

Being the No.1 defenceman on the Buffalo Sabres can be a difficult job, but Rasmus Dahlin has handled all the slings and arrows that were thrown at him to become one of the top blue liners in the NHL. Dahlin tied with Alex Tuch for the team scoring lead with 59 points and he had his first 20-goal season in 2023-2024. Whether it was on the power play or at even-strength, Dahlin’s ability to move the puck from end to end is outstanding. He’s capable of making passes akin to what a first-line center would make and can rip slap shots with the kind of power very few possess. He’s a dynamic offensive presence on the blue line and while his point totals dipped last season compared to the previous season, the uptick in goals showed the evolution his game is making. Dahlin has also developed a physical edge and doesn’t shy away from stirring things up either. He’s become an excellent on-puck defender and his ability to deny passes is impressive. It’s not something that shows up in highlights or box scores, but watching it happen in the flow of play is outstanding. He’s a leader on the ice and in the locker room, but he must improve on the number of penalties taken. The 29 infractions drawn last season were most on the Sabres and given he drew 27, the difference wasn’t too bad. But for the Sabres to have success, he must stay on the ice.

Owen Power

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	7	33	40	0.50

It may not always be reflected in his boxcar statistics, but Owen Power is an outstanding defenceman already at age 21. Last season, he had six goals and 27 assists in 76 games and his 33 points were second in defensive scoring behind Rasmus Dahlin. Considering he was second on the Sabres in average time on ice (22:55) behind Dahlin, that makes a lot of sense. After being the No. 1 in the 2021 draft, the lofty expectations that go with it mean he’s supposed to have juicier overall stats. But Power’s effectiveness stands out in both his advanced stats and via the eye test. Watching how well he’s able to exit the defensive zone and control the play from the backend through the neutral zone shows why he was the top pick three years ago and why the Sabres rely on him as much as they do. That said, he’s going to be the No. 2 guy on the blue line behind Dahlin for years to come since both signed long-term contracts a year ago to stay in Buffalo. The key for Power is to play with the kind of swagger and confidence Dahlin plays with now. At 6-foot-5, Power’s stature on the ice is impressive and a player as big as him being as smooth and heady on his feet makes him a unicorn of sorts, for him to take the next step in his career, he’s got to assert himself more in a similar way his teammate did a few years ago.

Bowen Byram

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	12	20	32	0.42

When the Sabres added Bo Byram from the Colorado Avalanche in the trade that sent center Casey Mittelstadt to Denver, it was a classic eye-popping hockey deal and one that helped Buffalo build one of the more impressive collections of young defencemen in the league. Things appeared to stagnate a bit for Byram in Denver last season and the Avalanche’s need for forward help and the Sabres’ fear of what Mittelstadt’s next contract would look like helped make the deal happen. Upon his arrival in Buffalo, it was a bit tricky to sort out his performance. His initial impression showed a lot of what was expected: strong puck-moving capability, fast pace of play and natural offensive instincts. But as the season ground to the finish, he struggled without an established role on the blue line and finished with nine points (three goals, six assists) in 18 games with the Sabres. The hope this season will be that Lindy Ruff’s new system and desire to up the pressure all over the ice will open things up for defencemen to carry and attack when called for and give Byram and his teammates the chance to fly. There’s no doubt he would like the fresh chance to show what he can do because he’s slated to play somewhere within Buffalo’s top four on defence, be it next to Rasmus Dahlin or Owen Power. His tools are too good to not work with the talent the Sabres have.

Henri Jokiharju

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	4	14	18	0.24

Henri Jokiharju’s stronger dedication to defensive play on the blue line was more than apparent last season. The Sabres have plenty of other more offensive options on the blue line in Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Bo Byram, so it’s the defensive side of the game Jokiharju needed to zero in on. He was a solid complementary player whether he was teamed up with Dahlin or Power on the right side and his plus-14 rating was best on the Sabres. He had 17 points in 74 games with three goals to his credit. One thing that helped him straighten up on defence was how he stuck to his role and what he was asked to do. Often in previous seasons, there would be disconnects between those he was paired with and was more meant to carry the puck up the ice and pinch in the offensive zone to add to the attack. That kind of miscommunication caused defensive breakdowns and golden scoring chances for opponents. Seeing that limited last season while he minded the defensive zone was encouraging. But Jokiharju can be effective with the puck. His shot from the blue line is decent and he’s able to get it through screens if he does let it fly. As he enters his final season before potentially becoming an unrestricted free agent next July, it’ll be worth paying attention to how he fits into what Lindy Ruff wants to do.

GOAL

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
52	25	22	6	4	0.908	2.63

Devon Levi

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
25	12	11	2	1	0.903	3.01

Compared to teams with Vezina-caliber goaltending, the 2023-24 Buffalo Sabres in-net offerings didn't necessarily put up any performances of note. But the team's ability to finish their season with a positive goal differential - something the Sabres hadn't done since 2011 - felt like both a remarkable breath of fresh air and a sign that things might finally be going right for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. The 24-year-old Luukkonen, who had already temporarily lost his NHL gig twice with reassignments to the minors and benchings behind 41-year-old Craig Anderson, finally took the step forward that the team had been dying for. He finished the 2023 campaign with quality starts in nearly two-thirds of his games played, recording his first NHL shutout (and then adding four more, for good measure) and finally hitting his stride behind a team that seems poised to take a long-overdue step forward.

The real question now will be aimed at prospect Devon Levi. The expectation last year was that Levi, who had been putting up stellar performances at every level, would be able to step in and help guide the team as they took a step forward. Instead, Luukkonen finally put all the pieces together with his own game, improving his movement fluidity and tracking the puck in a way he hadn't with any regularity in years past. And Levi, typically a goaltender who looked best when beckoning pucks to him and holding his positioning, started to become more erratic and harder to stay confident in. The Sabres provided some relief for Levi (and Luukkonen) with a veteran James Reimer coming on board as this season's locker room leader, so Levi is free to work on his conditioning at the AHL level for a bit without feeling the pressure to perform immediately. But Reimer's own numbers have been middling at best for the last few seasons, and his workloads have been limited in volume. So sooner rather than later, expect the Luukkonen-Levi tandem to make another appearance.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – BUFFALO SABRES – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Fri, 22 Sep 2023 21:37:53 +0000

ST. PAUL, MN - JANUARY 28: Buffalo Sabres Defenceman Rasmus Dahlin (26) follows the play during a game between the Minnesota Wild and Buffalo Sabres on January 28, 2023, at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

Review: In 2022-23, the Buffalo Sabres missed the playoffs, extending their NHL-record postseason drought to 12th consecutive campaigns. As hard as it is for a fanbase to feel good after that much pain, the latest iteration of the Sabres were fun to watch and showed plenty of promise. Tage Thompson led the offense with 47 goals and 94 points in 78 contests, making GM Kevyn Adams look like a genius for locking him up in the summer of 2022 to a seven-year, $50 million contract that will begin in 2023-24. Thompson was far from their only weapon though. Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch and Dylan Cozen each provided over 30 goals and 65 points while Rasmus Dahlin was one of the league’s top offensive defensemen, contributing 15 goals and 73 points. With that core, Buffalo ranked third offensively (3.57 goals per game), but the squad was ultimately held back by poor defense and mediocre goaltending.

What’s Changed? While it’s not technically a change, the single biggest difference from 2022-23 to 2023-24 is that Buffalo will now get a full campaign of Devon Levi after the goaltending prospect appeared in seven NHL contests last year. The 21-year-old has a lot to prove, but he has the potential to be the solution in net Buffalo sorely needs. The Sabres also inked defensemen Erik Johnson and Connor Clifton in the hopes of making life a little easier on their goaltenders.

What would success look like? At this point if the Sabres make the playoffs, that’s a win. It’s not going to be easy in the immensely competitive Atlantic Division, but it’s certainly an obtainable goal for Buffalo. That talented offense that carried them last year is still there and many of their key forwards are just now entering their prime. If Clifton and Johnson help stabilize their defense while Owen Power takes another step forward in his march towards being an elite two-way blueliner, then Buffalo will be a far more well-rounded team. Levi is by far the biggest X-Factor, but even a decent year out of him might be all the Sabres need to get over the hump.

What could go wrong? It’s just as possible that Levi might not be ready. Even with an encouraging seven-game stint with the Sabres last campaign, he’s still largely inexperienced and has yet to be tested against the grind of an 82-game season. If he’s not up to the task then that leaves Buffalo with Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, but both left plenty to be desired last season. The Sabres offense should be at least fine even in a worst-case scenario, but Skinner has had a rollercoaster career, so there’s no guarantee he’ll come even close to his 35-goal and 82-point 2022-23 performance.

Top Breakout Candidate: It’s got to be Levi. As much of a risk as he is, the talent and opportunity are there. If he proves that he’s capable now of holding that starting gig – and yes that’s a significant if – then he’ll have the benefit of the Sabres’ immense offensive support, making it possible for him to reach the 30-win mark as a rookie.

Forwards

Tage Thompson - C

Hard to believe there was a question about how Tage Thompson would do as a follow-up to his breakout 38-goal season in 2021-2022, but he showed it was not a one-season-wonder. Thompson piled up career-highs in goals (47), assists (47), and points (94) and led the Sabres in goals and points. It’s incredible to see his growth in production at the center spot and how he’s become one of the elite players in the NHL and a couple years after there was doubt as to whether he’d be an NHL player at all. Thompson’s explosion has spurred the Sabres out of the doldrums of a seemingly never-ending rebuild into a team that’s on the brink of making the playoffs for the first time since 2011 and possibly becoming a Stanley Cup contender. Understandably, Thompson’s shot output increased in 2022-2023 and his shot percentage improved by nearly one percent (15 to 15.9). That’s the kind of repeatable output the Sabres love to see because they’ll want him to continue ripping the puck. What’s more impressive is he doubled his goal output on the power play from 10 to 20 goals. He has an elite shot and one of the most potent one-timers in the game and it makes him someone opposing penalty kills must cover at all costs. With 53 of his 94 points coming on the power play last season, Thompson alone makes committing penalties against Buffalo a recipe for losing games.

Jeff Skinner - LW

The turnaround Jeff Skinner’s career has had under coach Don Granato continued in 2022-2023. Skinner was second on the Sabres in points with 82 and was third on the team in goals with 35. It was the first time he had 30-plus goals in consecutive seasons and his 82 points broke his previous career-high of 63 (which he’d done four times, twice each with Buffalo and Carolina). After his 40-goal season in 2018-2019, he scored 21 goals the next two seasons combined playing for Ralph Krueger and Granato. Skinner continued his career-long trait of being an outstanding even strength scorer with 27 of his 35 coming at evens and 25 at 5-on-5. While Skinner has never been a strong power play scorer, his 21 power play points last season set a new career high. While Skinner was a top-line scorer for Buffalo in his first season with the Sabres, his resurgence under Granato has had him there again playing on a line with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. Although Granato tried to see what other line combinations would work last training camp, the experimentation didn’t last long and the trio was reunited quickly. Expect them to stay together this season and be one of the NHL’s top scoring lines again.

Alex Tuch - RW

Alex Tuch continued to be the power forward the Sabres always dreamed of again last season. Tuch had a career year with 36 goals and 79 points with 27 goals coming on even strength (21 of them at 5-on-5). At 6’4” 219 pounds, Tuch’s work around the net complements the high-end skill of Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner with the ability to boss his way to and around the net. Coupling that with a deceptive wrist shot and he’s proved to be an all-around offensive threat for the Sabres. On top of his offensive production, Tuch also plays a strong two-way game again incorporating his size and reach to disrupt puck carriers and ability to be physical when needed. Although Buffalo’s penalty kill hasn’t been a high point in recent years, Tuch had a shorthanded goal for the second straight season. But it’s the offensive ability that sets Tuch apart and that he scored at more than a point per game pace for the first time in his career last season at age 26 shows he’s hitting his prime at the right time for the Sabres. Although Buffalo has a load of offensive options, Tuch’s power forward play makes him unique and a necessary change-up compared to the speedy snipers and skill players elsewhere on the roster.

Dylan Cozens - C

It was only a matter of time before Dylan Cozens had a true breakout season and 2022-2023 was it. Cozens set career highs with 31 goals and 68 points in just his third season. The 22-year-old from Yukon took the lessons learned from his first two NHL seasons as well as from playing wing for Canada at the 2022 World Championships to become more of a shooter and lean into that part of his game. It paid off in a big way as his shot output jumped dramatically (160 to 211) and his shooting percentage with it (8.1 to 14.7). Cozens was a threat in all situations and scored 24 goals at even strength to go with five on the power play and two shorthanded. His tenacious forechecking and eagerness to play the body helps him stand out from the likes of Thompson, Peyton Krebs, and Casey Mittelstadt up the middle. Even though his new scoring marks set a tricky bar to meet or exceed, the growth in his game and how players like Thompson have elevated over the years indicate that being able to do just that is very possible. Cozens slots in automatically as the Sabres’ No. 2 center as well as leading their second power play unit. As he’s gotten stronger, his physical play has grown but it’s the offensive end of the ice where he’s most dangerous and he was the de facto leader on a line with rookies J.J. Peterka and Jack Quinn last season despite the three of them all being roughly the same age. It’s right to expect a bit more from Cozens this season because we’re just starting to see the best of him now.

Jack Quinn - RW

Quinn’s rookie season didn’t have the kinds of numbers that knock your hair back when compared to some of the other outstanding first-year players around the league, but a deeper look at what he accomplished shows there’s reason to believe he’d be due for a big season. Quinn had 14 goals and 37 points over 75 games in 2022-2023. That put him seventh among NHL rookies in scoring and tied for eighth in goals with Montreal’s Raphael Harvey-Pinard. Quinn’s output was similar to what Dylan Cozens had in his second NHL season but Quinn’s skill with his shot and stick handling ability indicates he’s a player that will be able to fill the net in years to come. What’s difficult for him this season is how he’ll come back from a ruptured Achilles’ tendon he sustained during offseason workouts in June. That injury will keep him out of action until December or January at the latest and will certainly affect his total offensive output. The Sabres depth at forward will prevent Quinn’s absence from being a major blow, but how it affects his further development is worth paying attention to. It’s the second time Quinn has had an injury affect his offseason. In April 2021, he needed sports hernia surgery that ended his season in the AHL, but his performance in 2021-2022 showed he had no lingering ill effects. Buffalo hopes that will repeat itself when he returns in winter.

J.J. Peterka - LW

Peterka’s first NHL season saw him ride the typical rookie roller coaster in learning what he can and can’t get away with against the best players in the world. He had 12 goals and 32 helpers for the Sabres and showed the speed and creativity in his game that has everyone in Buffalo excited to see what more he’s capable of doing. Although he’s working on improving his two-way game, it’s the offensive play that will set him apart from his peers. His ability to get in behind defenders with his speed helps him get free for chances but how he finishes plays will be something to keep an eye on going forward. He’s able to create opportunities out of nowhere and what he’s capable of doing sets him apart from his usual linemates in Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn. He and Quinn have chemistry from their year together in AHL Rochester and that helped them both during last season in Buffalo, although they would occasionally struggle while learning the ropes. But that’s nothing out of the ordinary when bringing along two 21-year-old players into their first NHL seasons. More will be expected of Peterka, of course, and with Quinn’s absence to start the season the hope is all steps he’s taken in the offseason will pay off instantly. He was outstanding for Germany during the 2023 World Championships. He tied for second in the tournament in scoring with 12 points in 10 games and was named the best forward in the tournament. Germany won silver, their first medal at Worlds since 1953.

Casey Mittelstadt - C

Patience is proving to be Casey Mittelstadt’s best quality during his time with Buffalo. The 2017 No. 8 overall pick in the NHL Draft had a career year for the Sabres last season. He had 16 goals and 59 points in a year that was a borderline make-it-or-break-it season for him. His point total was more than twice his previous career-high of 25 points back in 2018-2019 and his 15 goals were three better than his previous best also set that season. Aside from good health, what allowed Mittelstadt to break out was his versatility. He played both at center and on the wing and showed he could lift his linemates in any given situation. He also showed he can be an effective scorer on the power play and provide help shorthanded as well. As a 5-on-5 player he was above-average in shot generation and suppression and broke even in goals scored and allowed when he was on the ice. Although the light that shined on Mittlestadt in previous seasons seemed to focus on his negative outcomes, there’s no doubt he was able to turn that around last season by consistently being involved offensively and creating shots and scoring opportunities for his teammates. A devoted teammate, Mittelstadt always strives to improve his game and to do what he can to better himself for the rest of the group. That he was able to post a breakout season and still be under the radar compared to his teammates speaks volumes to the value he does have. He’s become a vital cog for the rest of the lineup and gives the Sabres depth scoring beyond the first line for sure and takes the heat off some of his younger teammates as well. That said, it was such a standout year from him that it stands to wonder what he can do to follow that up this season.

Peyton Krebs - LW

While the majority of the attention among the Sabres youngest players went to the likes of Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens, and JJ Peterka, Peyton Krebs did a lot of the dirty work that doesn’t always get noticed, least of all in the stat columns. Krebs was an anchor up the middle on a line with Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo. While that line gets referred to as the “fourth line” often, the truth is it functioned as the Sabres’ shut down/energy line used to change the tempo of the game in their favor and regain steady puck possession. Krebs was able to do this by transforming into an irritator and a tenacious forechecker. Although he doesn’t stand out physically, he was able to use his body and his strength to his advantage to throw opponents off their games. Krebs even went so far as to get in a few fights last season, a rarity among the Sabres in general. All that said, Krebs still set career highs with nine goals and 26 points. What makes him different than a lot of forwards that play that kind of role is Krebs still has strong offensive instincts and abilities. He has an uncanny ability to read plays and to make difficult passes that would normally not come from other third-or-fourth-line forwards. Although Krebs thrives in the shutdown role, he is more than capable of sliding up the lineup to add more offense when called upon. At 22 years old, there’s a lot more to come from Krebs, the question is how much more offense will come or how much more of a shutdown forward he will turn out to be.

Victor Olofsson - RW

Every team in the league has a pariah when it comes to the fan base and unfortunately for Victor Olofsson, he was it last year. What’s wild is Olofsson had a career-high 28 goals last season, fifth most on the team, seven of which came on the power play. Of his 40 points, 12 came on the power play and his 17 goals at 5-on-5 were the most he’s had in a season in his career. The raw box car numbers seem great, assists aside, and they scream out that he’s a player who is doing what’s asked of him and is capable of more. So, what’s got fans upset with him? It’s his 5-on-5 play in general that stood out in the worst way. The majority of Olofsson’s teammates had better possession numbers away from him than with him (according to Natural Stat Trick) and at 5-on-5 he was 10th on the team in scoring but the Sabres were outscored 52-34 when he was on the ice. And while Tage Thompson’s numbers exploded on the power play, Olofsson’s have plateaued with seven power play goals in three straight seasons. There’s an opportunity for redemption this season, however. With Quinn out until December or January, it opens the chance for Olofsson to reclaim his role in the lineup by becoming a stronger 5-on-5 player and to not just rely on ripping shots from the circle to score goals and generate chances. He enters the season in the final year of his contract so there’s an abundance of motivation for him to turn it around with Buffalo and if not ultimately with them then another team to acquire him.

Defense

Rasmus Dahlin - D

Of the many players whose careers have blossomed in Buffalo under coach Don Granato, Rasmus Dahlin’s growth into one of the top point-producing defensemen in the NHL is perhaps the sweetest redemption. When he arrived as a rookie in 2018, scoring was never a problem but playing a solid all-around game was a bit difficult. For a couple of seasons, the offense waned and the worry about whether he’d live up to being a No. 1 overall draft pick began, but over the past two seasons, and especially after 2022-2023, he’s shown to be exactly who many thought he would become. He was fourth on the Sabres in scoring last season with 73 points including 15 goals, both of which set new career highs. He was fifth among NHL defensemen in scoring and had 32 points on the power play which was fourth best among blue liners. His possession and shot metrics at 5-on-5 were tops among Sabres defensemen as well and showed that it wasn’t just the points that carried his game, something noticed by the PHWA voters as he finished eighth in Norris Trophy voting. He’s Buffalo’s No. 1 defenseman by far and one of the best in the NHL and just 23 years old.

Owen Power - D

Power’s rookie season showed a lot of why he was the No. 1 overall pick in 2021. His 35 points made him the leading scorer among rookie defensemen and 26 of those points came at even strength. He was entrusted with power play duty on the second unit thanks to Rasmus Dahlin running the show most of the time, but he was apt to distribute there with eight power play points. Even though Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson made up most of the time on the first pairing, Power was tasked with vital ice time and averaged 23:48 per game, second only to Dahlin. At 20 years old, Power was a major contributor and a vital cog to the Sabres defense corps and the maturity in his game earned him the coaching staff’s trust. What helped that out was his unflappable ability to work out of tough situations and his ice-cold demeanor to get the job done. His advanced numbers did not stand out as strongly as the anecdotes and standard statistics (his 5-on-5 expected goals percentage was under 49 percent) and his defense partners seemed to take a lot of that blame. With the additions of Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson, we’ll get to see how well Power adjusts with one of them by his side for much of the season. If nothing else, Power has shown early in his career he’s not only up to such challenges but also ready to exceed expectations as well.

Mattias Samuelsson - D

When Mattias Samuelsson signed a seven-year, $30 million extension last October, there was a lot of head-scratching going on around the league because he’s a guy who hadn’t played a lot of NHL games and wasn’t known for producing points. Then he paired up with Rasmus Dahlin and the young Swede put up career numbers and became a much better defensive player as well. Coincidence? Not according to Dahlin and the Sabres coaching staff. Samuelsson’s dogged defensive and physical play, to them, allows Dahlin to have more freedom in the offensive zone to create as well as carry the puck all over the ice. If a $4 million-plus cap hit allows for that, you can argue that it’s money very well spent. But Samuelsson does enough of his own work to justify the deal. His big size causes opponents to be weary of going into corners against him for pucks as well as dread being around the front of the net. He’s also capable enough with the puck to make a good first pass out of the zone to start a breakout. Samuelsson is a modern-day throwback defensive defenseman where 20 years ago he’d have spent a lot of time scrapping with foes, but now he’ll settle disputes during the flow of play instead. Intangibles don’t generally have a price tag, but for Samuelsson there’s a solid approximation of the value.

Connor Clifton - D

The Sabres had a few areas of weakness last season that didn’t have to do with goaltending. They weren’t very good on the penalty kill (fifth worst in the NHL) and they weren’t a physical team (last in the NHL in hits by a substantial margin). To address those needs, the Sabres signed former Boston Bruins defenseman Connor Clifton to a three-year, $10 million contract. Clifton arrives in Buffalo with a history of playing for Don Granato during his junior hockey days and a reputation for delivering physically punishing hits all over the ice while also capable of playing up-tempo hockey. Clifton had 208 hits last season, 23rd most in the league, which was 101 more hits than the Sabres leader Mattias Samuelsson (who played in 23 fewer games). The hits stand out, but Clifton also had 23 points and only had 60 PIM last season. With his style of hockey, he provides an arguably necessary change on the Sabres blue line and a player who can draw attention away from their more skilled players when the temperature rises throughout a game. He’s not there to be a goon, of course, but instead he’ll be counted on to use his solid speed to help move the puck as well as adding some physical explosiveness to the blue line group. The Sabres haven’t had a player who made opponents keep their heads on a swivel in many years and they’re expecting Clifton to change that for them and give them an element they’ll need if they’re to make the playoffs and have success therein.

Goaltending

Devon Levi - G

It might seem premature to bank on Devon Levi as an NHL starter this upcoming season for the Buffalo Sabres. But even if he only splits the net with one of the more established options the team has under contract, it’s hard to argue that he’s the most talented piece they have on the roster by a wide margin.

Buffalo finally seemed to admit defeat on the Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen experiment this past season when they signed Levi to an entry-level deal at the culmination of his second collegiate season. Luukkonen, while the starter for Buffalo over the largest volume of games, once again struggled to put up league-average numbers and lost out on nearly a third of the starts on the year to a 41-year-old Craig Anderson. And while Eric Comrie always seemed just a step away from being ready to take the reins at the NHL level, his abbreviated performance at the NHL level last year also looked like nothing more than a tweener backup option to be used as a stopgap. Buffalo desperately needs to finally take a step forward, and Levi seems like their best chance to do that. The good news, though, is that he’s got all the makings of being the next franchise number one. He’s taken top-tier tracking and fluid lower-body movements and added in cleaner transitions than initially displayed his draft year. Perhaps the best part of his game, though, is that he’s got lightning-quick hands and a willingness to stop the puck to halt play; he’s perfectly confident setting up the face-off in his own end, and he holds his depth long enough to control incoming approaches from the offense. For Buffalo, the structure he has in his game should help balance out a defensive lineup that has struggled to establish consistency over the last decade-plus, especially with young names poised to revamp the blue line in the team’s incoming era. A Sabres lineup with Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power pairing up with Devon Levi could become a team to watch for in the East. The question, ultimately, isn’t whether or not Levi is ready – it’s how many games he’ll have to play in rotation with Comrie and Luukkonen.

Projected starts: 35-40

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Young Players Making a Mark, Significant Injuries and Impact

Scott Cullen — Fri, 21 Oct 2022 14:29:42 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

Although it is still quite early in the NHL season, there have been some developments worth tracking for fantasy managers. Nick Robertson, Cole Caufield, and Gabriel Vilardi are young players making a mark while Aaron Ekblad, Gabriel Landeskog, and Jakub Vrana are all going to miss significant time.

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 26: Toronto Maple Leafs Left Wing Nicholas Robertson (89) in action during the regular season NHL game between the Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs on April 26, 2022 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.(Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

#1 At the start of the season, the Toronto Maple Leafs demoted winger Nick Robertson to the American Hockey League, likely a victim of a salary cap crunch. The 2019 second-round pick has had some injuries, but he has also contributed 46 points (22 G, 24 A) in 51 AHL games, a strong indication that he should be able to produce in the NHL. Prior to this season, Robertson had a few stints with the Maple Leafs and had managed just one goal and one assist in 16 games, playing less than 10 minutes per game. That was his background before making his season debut for the Leafs against Dallas on Thursday night. Robertson skated on a line with John Tavares and William Nylander and scored a pair of goals, including the winner in overtime. He has a rocket shot and his speed stands out in the Maple Leafs lineup, so there is a real opportunity for Robertson to stick in a scoring role.

#2 Montreal Canadiens winger Cole Caufield has been a different player since Martin St. Louis took over behind the Habs bench last season. In 42 games since St. Louis was hired, Caufield has scored 40 points (26 G, 14 A), finishing at better than a 50-goal pace over 82 games. One reason to be particularly encouraged about Caufield’s play this season is that he has recorded 20 shots on goal in five games and averaging 4.0 shots per game is a significant jump (in a small sample) from the 3.1 per game that he averaged even with St. Louis as head coach last season.

#3 The Philadelphia Flyers have been an early surprise, thanks in large part to goaltender Carter Hart, who has a .943 save percentage in three starts. Hart entered the league with significant hype and provided better than average results for his first couple of seasons before things went sideways the past couple of years. He may not have great support in front of him this season, but there is still a chance for Hart to fulfill his vast potential.

#4 The Florida Panthers were dealt potentially devastating news when Aaron Ekblad landed on long-term injured reserve with a groin injury. The Panthers insist that it is not a season-ending injury but for a team that traded MacKenzie Weegar to Calgary in the offseason, losing Ekblad for months is going to test Florida’s blueline talent. Gustav Forsling, who has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in four games this season, is likely to become the prime offensive threat on the Panthers blueline, followed by Brandon Montour, who is dealing with his own upper-body injury right now.

#5 Detroit Red Wings left winger Jakub Vrana has entered the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. Any time a player goes into this program, the well-being of the player takes precedence over any potential timeline for return, so his absence must be considered indefinite. Vrana being out does figure to create an opportunity for Filip Zadina, the 22-year-old winger who has already been a healthy scratch early in the season. Zadina has produced 61 points (25 G, 36 A) in 161 career games, underwhelming numbers from the sixth pick in the 2018 Draft.

#6 It was already understood that Colorado Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog would not be ready for the start of the season but now word has come that he will be out for three months following knee surgery. That long-term absence is going to test Colorado’s forwards. Valeri Nichushkin is a prime candidate to step up in Landeskog’s absence. Nichushkin had a breakthrough season for the Avs in 2021-2022, scoring 52 points (25 G, 27 A) in 62 games and adding 15 points (9 G, 6 A) in 20 playoff contests. He has carried that into this season, putting up eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 15 shots on goal in the first four games.

#7 The 11^th pick in the 2017 Draft, Los Angeles Kings forward Gabriel Vilardi was supposed to be a playmaking center that would complement Anze Kopitar down the middle of the ice. Injuries sidetracked his career and there were probably some doubts about whether he was going to be a productive NHLer. Vilardi has found early success playing the wing this season, scoring seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 14 shots on goal in six games. He has struggled to generate shots consistently in previous turns with the Kings, so that is a stat worth monitoring to see if his early scoring might continue.

#8 Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin had a breakthrough season in 2021-2022, scoring a career-high 53 points (15 G, 38 A) and that might just be scratching the surface of his vast potential. The first pick in the 2018 Draft, Dahlin has started this season with six points (4 G, 2 A) and 16 shots on goal in four games. He will not continue to score at a goal-per-game pace but generating four shots on goal per game is encouraging for Dahlin’s long-term scoring potential. Some players need to be turned loose to bring out their best and Dahlin appears to be one of those players.

#9 After notching a hat trick against the Edmonton Oilers Thursday, Carolina Hurricanes winger Andrei Svechnikov is now tied for the goal-scoring lead, with six. Svechnikov also has 18 shots on goal in four games and putting up 4.5 shots per game would likely lead to the best goal-scoring output of his career. He scored a career high 30 goals last season when he averaged 3.2 shots on goal per game.

#10 Aside from changing their head coach, the Philadelphia Flyers did little to improve their team in the offseason, which meant that expectations were going to be higher for some players already on the roster. Travis Konecny might have been the poster boy for a skilled player from whom the Flyers needed more production, and he has responded early in this season. Through four games, Konecny is averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game and has six points (4 G, 2 A) and 15 shots on goal.

#11 It might be a good time to buy low on San Jose Sharks winger Timo Meier, who has no goals and two assists through six games. Meier also has launched 26 shots on goal, the most among skaters that have yet to record a goal this season. Los Angeles Kings winger Trevor Moore and Columbus Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner, with 20 shots, are next in line among forwards still seeking their first goal of the season.

#12 25-year-old Boston Bruins left winger A.J. Greer has struggled to earn a regular spot in the league since he was a second-round pick of the Colorado Avalanche in 2015. He is getting a chance to play with Boston this season and has five points (3 G, 2 A) and nine shots on goal in five games despite playing 10 minutes per game for the Bruins, ranking ahead of only Trent Frederic among Bruins skaters to appear in more than one game. Greer is not yet fantasy relevant but is worth watching to see if he can turn this into a longer stay in the National Hockey League.

#13 Although this season figures to be a painful one for the Arizona Coyotes, veteran defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere is getting ample opportunity to showcase his offensive skills. In four games, Gostisbehere has five points (2 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal. He is already minus-6 in four games, so he could be unplayable in leagues that count plus-minus but otherwise he ought to be a productive defenseman, even on a bad team.

#14 As the Florida Panthers remodeled their lineup in the offseason, it was easy enough to overlook their signing of Colin White, the 25-year-old who had his contract bought out by the Ottawa Senators. White is playing less than 12 minutes per game, almost exclusively with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen, but has contributed four points (2 G, 2 A) and six shots on goal in four games. Early production could give White a shot at moving up the Florida depth chart.

#15 The early leader in the rookie scoring race is Minnesota Wild defenseman Calen Addison, who has six assists in four games. A second-round pick of the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2018, Addison was acquired in the deal that sent winger Jason Zucker to the Penguins. Addison had 58 points (13 G, 45 A) in 77 AHL games and four points in 18 games with the Wild prior to this season. When the Wild traded veteran Dmitry Kulikov to Anaheim in the offseason, that opened the door for Addison to stick in the NHL.

#16 Injuries tend to hamper Seattle Kraken left winger Jaden Schwartz, but he remains a productive player when heathy. He has three points (2 G, 1 A) and 16 shots on goal through five games this season and is a consistent play-driver. So long as he can stay healthy, Schwartz should have some fantasy appeal.

#17 Coming into the season, the Boston Bruins looked like they would have a strong tandem in goal with Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. Ullmark has lived up to his end of the deal, posting a .938 save percentage in four games. Swayman has only played two games, but he has stopped just 40 of 49 shots in those two games, which is a .816 save percentage. Given those numbers, Ullmark would appear to have an early edge if the Bruins are going to lean towards the goaltender that is playing at a higher level.

#18 It is very early and even the best goalies can have down seasons, to say nothing of a few bad starts, but there are some goaltenders falling way short of their high expectations in the first few weeks of this season. Marc-Andre Fleury has a .813 save percentage, Thatcher Demko is at .861, Jacob Markstrom at .862, and Jack Campbell at .874. For fantasy managers, there is not much to be done with these goaltenders except to wait for better results because there is no value to be had in selling low at such an early stage of the season, especially on goaltenders that are going to hold No. 1 jobs.

#19 New York Islanders right winger Oliver Wahlstrom is still playing just 12 minutes per game, but the 11^th pick in the 2018 Draft has shown that he can put the puck in the net. In three games this season, he has four points (3 G, 1 A) and nine shots on goal. He is not going to keep scoring on one-third of his shots, but it would not be unreasonable to think that Wahlstrom is going to force his way into more playing time as the season goes along.

#20 Among players that have played at least 50 minutes this season, the leader in all-situations individual expected goals per 60 minutes is New Jersey Devils center Nico Hischier at 2.71, ahead of Matthew Tkachuk (2.39), Mika Zibanejad (2.29), Erik Haula (2.17), and Andrei Kuzmenko (2.17).

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – BUFFALO SABRES – NHL Player Profiles

Joe Yerdon – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 21:41:19 +0000

FORWARDS

ST. LOUIS, MO - FEBRUARY 25: Sabres center Tage Thompson (72) during a NHL game between the Buffalo Sabres and the St. Louis Blues on February 25, 2022, at Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire),

Tage Thompson

As breakout seasons go, perhaps none were more out-of-the-blue and stunning as Tage Thompson’s 38-goal, 68-point year in 2020-2021 all while playing a position he hadn’t played in the NHL. Coach Don Granato moved Thompson to center and watched the six-foot-seven score more than twice as many goals in one season as he did in his first four with Buffalo and St. Louis. Thompson going from a player you wondered if he would ever pop off in the NHL to suddenly being the Sabres No. 1 center without a doubt is an incredible glow-up. Thompson’s rise to the top of the line-chart saw him team up with Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch to provide the Sabres’ first dangerous top line since Skinner skated next to Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart. Of his 38 goals, 26 came at even strength and 10 on the power play. Adding a couple of shorthanded tallies was a chef’s kiss on top of an incredible season. On top of that, Thompson trailed only Skinner in shots taken and he was fourth among six players on the roster to have a greater than 50 percent CorsiFor at 5-on-5 last season. The Sabres believe he can do it again and signed him to a seven-year, $50 million contract prior to training camp.

Jeff Skinner

Jeff Skinner’s Sabres career has been an incredible journey and he just finished his fourth season in Buffalo. After he scored 40 in his first season and landed an eight-year, $72 million contract his following two seasons had him buried in the lineup by then coach Ralph Krueger and his offense disappeared posting the worst seasons of his career in back-to-back years. With Krueger out and Don Granato in, Skinner found himself back on the top line and thrived. Skinner finished second on the Sabres behind Tage Thompson in goals (33) and points (63). As he’s done throughout his career, he thrived at even strength scoring 28 goals and his time on the power play increased greatly and led to five goals. Having a player with the offensive ability of Skinner made it seem like a no-brainer to put him with other players who can drive play and teaming up with Thompson and Alex Tuch helped make everyone better. Skinner’s ice time even recovered to a normal level as his average per game jumped by 2:35. What Skinner will look to avoid is the roller coaster effect he’s had year to year going from a big goal season to a more average one. After breaking free of the restrictions of the past, Skinner will aim to keep the good times rolling.

Alex Tuch

It’s not often when a player is traded for a superstar that he turns into the breath of fresh air needed to give a team life. This was the story for Alex Tuch after arriving in Buffalo from Vegas in the Jack Eichel trade. Tuch embraced being a Sabre as he was a fan of them growing up outside of Syracuse, NY and impressed fans in Western New York with his big frame he uses to drive the net and create opportunities close to the net. Tuch returned from offseason shoulder surgery to play 50 games for Buffalo and posted 12 goals and 38 points tying him for fifth with Dylan Cozens on the team. Tuch teaming up with Jeff Skinner and Tage Thompson on the top line for most of the season allowed him to be the power forward while Thompson and Skinner thrived with the room he provided. Tuch’s scoring rate of 0.76 points per-game was also a career high and his best since 2018-2019 with the Golden Knights. He was second on the Sabres behind Rasmus Asplund with a 51.6 percent CorsiFor at 5-on-5 and when you’ve got the puck more than the opponent does, you’re doing it right. Tuch also showed characteristics of being a possible future captain of the team, if not this season, then certainly down the road. With a complete offseason of training and a full season, it should mean the best is yet to come for Tuch.

Victor Olofsson

Victor Olofsson has one of the best shots in the NHL and he found ways to grow his game when his shot wasn’t there. For a span of time that’s somewhat unclear, Olofsson dealt with a wrist injury that appeared to take the speed and accuracy away from his laser beam of a shot and held him to 20 goals. Although he missed only 10 games, having his best weapon unavailable for any amount of time would be frustrating. Consider that he scored on 12.2% of his shots last season, a normal season would’ve meant scoring closer to 25 or 30 goals. The last time the Sabres had more than two 30-goal scorers in a season was 2006-2007 when they had four. Watching Olofsson evolve into a player who can do more than just score laser beam goals on the power play to one who can set up others and score for himself is a very welcome change. This isn’t to say Olofsson’s play ever disappointed the front office, but when you add more to a player’s game that can make them a better threat and keep opposing defenses on their toes, it makes a difference. This evolution in his game shows that sometimes out of the most difficult situations, solutions arise. With a new two-year contract signed and set, Olofsson will be eager to show off all his weapons.

Casey Mittelstadt

Last season was supposed to be Mittelstadt’s opportunity to show what he can really bring to the lineup. He had a great training camp and appeared ready to have his best season at the most important time of his career. Instead, an upper-body injury in the first game of the season kept him sidelined until December where he re-aggravated it and didn’t return until late January. He missed two more weeks with a separate injury in February. In all, injuries cost him 42 games and kept him to six goals and 19 points in 40 games. Mittelstadt’s career has had plenty of ups and downs to this point, but provided injuries stay away, he’ll be in the same position to show what he can bring to a rejuvenated lineup. His hands and shot are excellent as we’ve seen in the past and whether he stays at center or slides to wing, he can be a productive forward. He’ll have a bit more competition this year with Peyton Krebs, Jack Quinn, and J-J Peterka set to challenge for bigger roles and spots on the roster. He found success last season playing with Victor Olofsson and Rasmus Asplund as those three were able to have strong possession and shot generation. With good health and ice time to match it, the best of his career may be yet to come, but competition for spots among forwards will be stiff.

Dylan Cozens

The 21-year-old native of Yukon enters his third NHL season and while he’s been fine during those seasons, he’s in the best position to have a breakout season in Buffalo now. For roughly the first half of last season, Cozens was one of the Sabres most impressive young players. He showed great aptitude for carrying the puck into the zone and he helped drive play on his line. For a time, he was on a 20-goal pace, but things cooled off a little and he finished with 13 goals and 38 points. The rates on his offensive metrics all improved quite a bit and he further developed the edge to his game that won’t allow larger players to take advantage of him. He’s also not afraid to drop the gloves if the situation calls for it. Cozens saw more of his shift starts come in the offensive zone going roughly 60-40 offensive to defensive zone. This may seem a bit sheltered, but he played most of the season with Vinnie Hinostroza and Kyle Okposo and giving lines that may or may not be a bit lower in the lineup a bit more juice to get some scoring chances never hurts. With Cozens’ ability to possess the puck up the ice and able to gain the zone with the puck under control, he may be able to help get the team out of danger more often. With an expected influx of young scoring talent, it may open things up for Cozens to boost his own offensive output.

Rasmus Asplund

It’s true that many forwards who excel defensively fly under the radar unless they’re also outstanding scorers. After all, doing the grunt work doesn’t usually get on the highlight reels. But when you did through the numbers and search out players whose possession and shot suppression numbers look, perhaps no one went as unnoticed as Rasmus Asplund. At 5-on-5, Asplund was the Sabres best at CorsiFor percentage (53.3), he trailed only Alex Tuch in Shots For percentage and expected goals for percentage. Even more impressive is that he had most of his zone starts in the offensive end. Asplund is not an offensive dynamo. He had eight goals and 27 points and 22 of those were at even strength. He went 46 games between goals, when he scored Nov. 21 and not again until March 27, but his defensive work earned him a few votes for the Selke Trophy for best defensive forward. Given his defensive abilities, he’ll likely be deployed on an energy line or will line up with other players whose main skills are not centered around shutting down opponents. That Asplund has emerged like this gives Buffalo someone they can rely on to forecheck and pressure the puck relentlessly all over the ice and to play smart on the penalty kill. If Asplund were better at finishing he’d have a few more goals as he can generate chances, but for now it’s not his main mission.

Peyton Krebs

As the other key acquisition in the Jack Eichel trade, Krebs joined the Sabres as a potential future top-six centerman. Although he was drafted by Vegas, he’s done most of his pro hockey development with Buffalo last season. He joined the Sabres organization having played seven AHL games with Henderson and 13 with the Golden Knights. Over 48 games in Buffalo he posted seven goals and 22 points and showed an adept ability to thread passes to teammates and create scoring chances or set up goals. Like Cozens, Krebs was a first-round pick in 2019 but his road to the NHL was a bit more methodical, not to mention slowed by injuries, but his time to start shining is approaching. Something that will help Krebs get to the NHL and be a top-six or top-nine forward is the improvement in his defensive game. While his vision on the ice as well as his passing ability are outstanding, he struggled in his own end. When he was sent to the AHL at the conclusion of the NHL season, his play in there showed he’s not far off in general, but he put a lot of work in his play away from the puck and it helped him immensely. Building off that will help him in the competition for minutes in the lineup. With his offensive gifts already showing a lot of promise, he’ll have a huge opportunity to capitalize in competition with teammates.

DEFENSE

Rasmus Dahlin

It would feel wrong to say that Dahlin has been a bit beleaguered in his four NHL seasons, but there’s a lot of truth to it. He’s played for three head coaches, each with different systems and ideas for how Dahlin should play, and it’s hurt him, particularly early on in seasons. Last season started similarly as the player who went No. 1 in the 2018 NHL Draft seemed like he would never show up. But that changed in the second half of the year. Dahlin became a puck-rushing force, particularly in the offensive zone. Dahlin’s moments to pinch in were well-timed, his reads on plays were spot on, and his ability to finish chances improved as the season wound down. He had 13 goals and 40 assists when it was all said and done, and it seemed like the new energy surrounding the team manifested itself within his game. Ten of his goals came at even strength, as did 21 assists. On the power play which he was the quarterback on the top unit, he scored three goals with 18 assists and even had a shorthanded assist as well. He played the most minutes per game in his career (over 24:01) and was hands-down their No. 1 defenseman. These are key reasons to be excited about what’s to come this season, all he must do is not stumble out of the gate and play like that for a full season. It’s a big ask, but it’s the ask that’s always been made of him from the beginning.

Mattias Samuelsson

The one thing that kept the 6-foot-4, 226-pound rookie from being a Sabre all season was an injury sustained during a prospects challenge game before the start of training camp. That blocked shot kept him out of action for some time and meant he started the season in the AHL when he was cleared to play. It wasn’t long after that he was off to Buffalo where he instantly became a top pairing defender with Rasmus Dahlin and made Buffalo’s blue line that much better. Over 42 games, Samuelsson had 10 assists and averaged an even 20 minutes per game. While he played most his minutes with Casey Fitzgerald to start, his time with Dahlin is what has everyone in Buffalo excited about what’s to come. In 140 minutes of time at 5-on-5 with Dahlin, he posted a 54.6 percent CorsiFor and a 51.3 percent expected goals for. Even with all that, there was some bad luck as their PDO together was .967 (average is 1.000). Samuelsson also provides a physical element to the roster that’s severely lacking. He was third on the team with 100 hits. Dahlin was first with 121 but he played in 38 more games. The best is yet to come for Samuelsson, and he’ll be counted on to play top pairing minutes, likely with Dahlin. His throwback style with a modern twist is the exact kind of thing Buffalo has needed for a long time.

Henri Jokiharju

A lot had been asked of Jokiharju in his first couple seasons with Buffalo. He was originally Rasmus Dahlin’s partner and stayed there for a few seasons. The importance of that pairing playing most minutes and being tasked the toughest matchups began to show that perhaps that wasn’t the ideal role for the now 23-year-old Finn. Now that Mattias Samuelsson has assumed that role on the top pairing, Jokiharju has slid back to the second pair where, while the minutes are fewer, it’s allowed Jokiharju to settle in and take better advantage of the lesser matchups. What that really means is it’s a long-winded way of saying Jokiharju was fine but unspectacular. His numbers, both standard and advanced, don’t jump off the screen. He had three goals and 19 points in 60 games and his possession numbers were middle of the road both in terms of the Sabres and in general. He had some power play time and a bit more on the penalty kill, although it stands to reason with Owen Power’s full-time arrival, power play time will be scarce for Jokiharju from here on out. What will make or break him is how steady and consistent he can play. There were stretches last season where his play was a bit off and left fans frustrated. Saving him from top pairing minutes should do well to eliminate that from occurring and allow Buffalo to get the best from him.

Ilya Lyubushkin

True defensive-defensemen are a bit scarcer in the modern NHL, but when there’s a need for one on a team it’s always apparent. Therefore, one of the Sabres few free agent signings addressed that need for the blue line and it was former Coyote and Maple Leaf defender Ilya Lyubushkin that fit the bill. While Mattias Samuelsson provides a lot of that bite on the top pair, Lyubushkin will provide another option on a lower pairing. One thing that makes Lyubushkin stand out is his consistency. The player he was when he came up with Arizona is the same guy he is now. His shot suppression numbers were decent with Arizona considering how poorly they’ve played the past few seasons. In his short time with the Maple Leafs, those numbers naturally improved but his game held strong. He’s not a big time shot blocker nor is he overwhelmingly physical, but at 6-foot-2, 210 pounds he can fill the space and close the gaps with attention to detail. If there’s someone Lyubushkin seems ideal to line up next to it’s Owen Power. His defensive-minded play counters Power’s strong puck carrying ability and offensive play. That’s a spot he may have to compete with Jokiharju to lock down. Make no mistake though, Lyubushkin is a Sabre because he can handle himself very well in his own end of the ice, anything else he can add is gravy.

Craig Anderson

It seems like Craig Anderson just doesn’t want to quit – at 41-years old, he’ll be one of the oldest players in the league, much less in net. With the announcement that Mike Smith will likely miss the 2022-23 campaign, that leaves Anderson as the league’s only over-40 goaltender – and the next closest in age, Marc-Andre Fleury, will only be 38. It’s hard not to root for him to keep having fun, especially given the mentor status he’ll assume during the upcoming year.

Buffalo found itself scrambling when former up-and-comer Linus Ullmark left in free agency last summer, and they still haven’t quite recovered. That leaves them in a position where they need Anderson for as long as he’s happy to skate out and dress the part, even if his numbers during the 2021-22 season were far from exemplary. He remains one of the league’s most old-school holdouts from a technical standpoint, which becomes more and more apparent with each passing year; as the game speeds up and requires faster and smoother lateral work, he struggles to keep up. But despite the fact that his game clearly doesn’t seem suited for going the distance on a postseason run anymore, he continues to have one of the most consistent game styles out there. That’s an incredible asset for a Buffalo franchise that’s not necessarily trying to win a cup this year but is trying to ingrain good habits in the up-and-coming players they have on roster. Add in the guidance that Anderson can provide for the newly-acquired Eric Comrie and the stable reliability he offers for the team’s coaching staff as a backup, and there’s a lot to like about his continued presence in the Niagara region – even if he signifies yet another year of a seemingly-endless rebuild.

Projected starts: 35-40

Eric Comrie

It seems like Eric Comrie has been just a step away from regular league action for years now, but he’ll finally get his chance this season. With Malcolm Subban on the injured reserve list, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen coming off a lackluster year spent nearly entirely in the AHL, and Erik Portillo still developing at the University of Michigan, the door is wide open for Comrie to finally establish himself as a consistent NHL presence.

Comrie had a stellar coming-out year for Winnipeg this past season, posting his first career NHL shutout and boasting a .920 save percentage in all situations through 19 games. It seemed as if he finally took the technical precision he was so well known for during his prospect years and added a bit more confident from a decision-making standpoint. During some of his brief earlier showings at the NHL level, he struggled with keeping his movements fluid and minimal after allowing a tough goal. This past year, though, he managed to keep his game consistent through entire 60-minute showings, relying on smart technique and a lack of over-aggressive challenging to give himself an edge in a season where so many goaltenders were still re-establishing their own game baselines post-covid shutdowns. Now, though, he’ll have to replicate that success with what’s likely to be a much higher workload, behind a team that’s dealt with far less success than Winnipeg has seen in the last few years. Buffalo has struggled with not just structure to their games, but with consistency – particularly in how they manage their blue line. That means that although Comrie is going to be given more responsibility, he’ll be given less direction in how to handle it. Hopefully, he’ll be fine with Craig Anderson as a reliable mentor, but he wouldn’t be the first goaltender to see his confidence rattled by a scattered system offered up by the Sabres.

Projected starts: 50-55

COREY SZNAJDER – NUMBERS AT WORK: 2022-23 Breakout Picks – Emerging Stars and Young Players Ready to Take the Next Step

Corey Sznajder — Wed, 07 Sep 2022 12:08:51 +0000

Breakout Picks:

Star Tier

Here we have players that have already made a name for themselves. Most of them are regarded as great players and just need that one special season to be considered one of the league’s elite. Sometimes all it takes is getting more ice-time or a change of scenery. For others, it’s just a matter of time. There are a lot of guys in the league in their early 20’s who already have a few great seasons under their belts. These are the guys that you would expect to leap into that coveted “superstar” tier, both by production and overall impact.

SAN JOSE, CA - NOVEMBER 22: Carolina Hurricanes right wing Andrei Svechnikov (37) carries the puck behind the Skarks net during the NHL hockey game between the San Jose Sharks and the Carolina Hurricanes on November 22nd, 2021 at SAP Center in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Matt Cohen/Icon Sportswire)

Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes

The Carolina winger is a perfect example of a great player who can reach another level. He finally hit the elusive 30-goal mark last year but with his talent and goal-scoring up across the league you can make the case for him becoming a regular point-per-game player. Since taking the league by storm in 2018, Svechnikov has slowly gotten better every year and is an interesting case when you look at overall impact vs. point-production. In terms of driving offense and scoring chances, he is among the league’s elite but hasn’t had the huge point outburst you’d expect from someone who creates so many chances. There’s a cap on how much offense you can create in Carolina’s rigid system, but Svechnikov is one of those players who can break that mold with how effective he is at creating chances out of nothing, especially as a playmaker. He made great strides in becoming a better finisher last year, missing the net less often and adding more tools to his arsenal with creating off broken, loose plays around the net. He was able to get by on strength and power early in his career and generate chances that way. As players get older, they add more tricks to their bag and learn what it takes to beat NHL goaltenders. Svechnikov has slowly been improving there, both as a shooter and as a passer. We’ve all seen the lacrosse goals, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg with what he can do and it’s only a matter of time before more pucks start going in for him and his linemates. There is no reason why he can’t be Carolina’s best player next season.

Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars

The stars are aligning for Miro Heiskanen to become a Norris front-runner. It takes years for most defensemen to be as technically sound as he is in the defensive zone and most of them aren’t gifted with his skillset. Those who watch him know what he can do with the puck, so why have points been so hard to come by for him? Some of it goes back to the general environment in Dallas. It’s a tough place to produce offense unless you’re deployed with their top line and those minutes were reserved for mainstay John Klingberg. With him departing to Anaheim, Heiskanen is the one set to take over those high-profile minutes both at even strength and the power play. When we talk about defensemen taking that next step, it’s usually someone breaking into a top-four role from more sheltered offensive minutes. Heiskanen’s development curve has been the opposite because he was thrown into a more defensive role early in his career, mastered it and now it’s time to see if he can produce offense like the Roman Josis and Victor Hedmans of the league. His skillset along with the coaching change in Dallas puts the odds in his favor. Something common with Pete DeBoer teams is how much they revert to point shots and while that’s not always the most optimal strategy, it does mean that Heiskanen will take the reins a little more. Whether that’s through looking for rebounds, deflections or making his own shot more of a weapon, talented defensemen usually find a way to get on the scoresheet more under DeBoer and Heiskanen is in the right situation to have that career offensive season we have been waiting for.

Andre Burakovsky, Colorado Avalanche

Burakovsky was a player everyone expected to breakout even before Colorado traded for him in 2019. He did to some degree, establishing himself as a top-six player and posting career high numbers across the board last year. It’s fair to ask how much better he can get with eight NHL seasons under his belt, but this year in Seattle is a different situation for him. Burakovsky thrived as more of a complementary player in Colorado, and this is the first time where he is going to be heavily relied on for offense. He’s always been a high-percentage shooter and one of the best players in the league at creating chances off the rush, giving the Kraken an element they were missing. Someone who can score an easy goal and change the tide of the game in one shift. The challenge for Burakovsky is doing this while playing at the top of the lineup as the driver of his line. He could do this in spurts with the Avalanche but had the likes of Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog as insulation, which obviously isn’t going to be the case in Seattle. Some of the roster might meet him in the middle, most notably top prospect Matty Beniers and new addition Oliver Bjorkstrand. There is going to be more pressure on Burakovsky as “the guy” in Seattle and he has always had the talent to be one of the best wingers in the league. A guaranteed spot on a top line could be what unlocks that.

CHICAGO, IL - JANUARY 21: Chicago Blackhawks Center Dylan Strome (17) and Minnesota Wild Left Wing Matt Boldy (12) skate in action during a game between the Minnesota Wild and the Chicago Blackhawks on January 21, 2022 at the United Center in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

Matt Boldy, Minnesota Wild

The only thing keeping Matt Boldy out of Calder contention was that he wasn’t called up until January. There are some concerns about a sophomore slump with Kevin Fiala departing for Los Angeles, but it can also be viewed as an opportunity for Boldy to show that he wasn’t just a fluke. His chemistry with Fiala was more of a two-way street, as Fiala scored 64 of his 85 points after Boldy was called up and it’s not the first time two talented players fed off each other. Boldy also showed that he can be a versatile player in his rookie season, he didn’t always need to be the one with the puck to be effective but had the ability to create offense out of nothing if he needed to. Getting the puck off the wall and into a dangerous spot was one of his trademark moves and someone who can do that is welcome on any line. The only thing keeping him from a 60–70-point type of season is that it’s unlikely for him to unseat Mats Zuccarello on the top line or one of Greenway or Foligno on the Eriksson Ek checking line. That leaves him on a sheltered scoring line with Frederick Gaudreau, who he played well with last year and the talented but young Marco Rossi. Boldy is in store for a great season, but another top-level linemate could launch him into the star tier.

Tim Stutzle, Ottawa Senators

The one guy who should be the most excited about Ottawa’s off-season moves is their 2020 first round pick Tim Stutzle. He made a lot of strides last year in becoming less of a one-man show and becoming a threat on the power play, but his five-on-five production was still a work in progress. Relative to his ice-time, he was behind the likes of Connor Brown, Parker Kelly and Alex Formenton, which makes his 58 points in 79 games a little misleading. However, there are some signs that this won’t be a long-term problem. Stutzle’s best skill is his ability to gain the zone, making the defense back off or skating through checks to breakdown neutral zone traps. His controlled zone entry rate was one of the highest in the league last year and most players who rate highly in this stat go onto have productive careers, think Patrick Kane, Kevin Fiala or Brayden Point on the higher end or Troy Terry and Jesper Bratt as more recent examples. This is where Ottawa’s off-season additions come into play. Alex DeBrincat is a perfect running mate for him, as someone who can read off Stutzle in transition and finish off some of the plays he creates. They could also put him with Giroux as a guy who can spring him on stretch passes to get behind the defense. Either way, the Sens are in a great position to make life easier for their budding star and he is in for a productive season if their off-season additions gel together.

Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Stars

Last year was a major stepping stone for Dahlin in terms of living up to his draft pedigree. The skill with the puck was always there but it was tough for him to dominate the NHL like he did in international tournaments. You saw a little bit of it in his rookie season and he returned to that form last year, showing that same fearlessness to create from the blue line in and taking control of the offense when he needed to. Stepping out of Rasmus Ristolainen’s shadow and being more of “the guy” on Buffalo’s defense helped ignite this and now it’s time to see if Dahlin can put himself in with the Quinn Hughes and Cale Makars of the world. He has a lot of similar qualities and while he might not have the vision of Quinn Hughes or the explosiveness of Cale Makar, his skating and ability to play more like a forward in transition gives him a dimension that other teams might have trouble preparing for, especially while Buffalo is rebuilding. The surrounding talent might keep Dahlin from having a Norris-type of season but his skill with the puck is something a lot of defensemen don’t have, and he could be one of highest scoring players at his position next season if he continues to grow.

Taking the Next Step

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 28: Carolina Hurricanes center Seth Jarvis (24) against the New York Rangers during Game 6 of round 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs on May 28, 2022 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Seth Jarvis, Carolina Hurricanes

Jarvis was one of those players who looked the part when he debuted for the Hurricanes last October. Quickly ascending to the top of the lineup and doing the little things to stick in the top-nine, winning puck battles, going to the net, etc., he became one of their more consistent players throughout the year even if he wasn’t scoring goals. The playoffs were a real coming out party for him. He was arguably the team’s best forward and created most of their dangerous offense on the power play, both as the quarterback from the right circle and as a netfront presence. He’s versatile in how he creates offense, and his lower body strength makes him very effective as a forechecker, which is a great fit for Carolina’s system where sustained o-zone possessions are their preferred method. He is set for a top role heading into the season with Max Pacioretty on injured reserve and a need for goal-scoring across the lineup.

Mikey Anderson, Los Angeles Kings

Sometimes strong puck skill doesn’t always translate to points and LA’s Mikey Anderson is a great example of that. You could say that he has already broken out with two seasons as a top-four NHL defensemen under his belt, but there’s definitely another level he can reach. He’s been a great safety valve for Drew Doughty, using his great reach to negate zone entries and kill plays along the wall so Doughty can get up in the play. It’s not the path most expected him to take, being an undersized defenseman who was more of a point-producer at amateur levels. This changed in his first season in the AHL where he was pigeon-holed as more of a shutdown defenseman, and he’s translated those skills well at the NHL level. His chemistry with Doughty and the Kings improving forward talent make him an under-the-radar pick to have a points outburst this year. Anderson makes a good first pass out of the zone and those plays could result in more goals with Kevin Fiala on the receiving end of them. Sometimes it's a breakout season is about the improving talent around you and that could be the case for Anderson.

Alexis Lafreniere, New York Rangers

Not every first overall pick is going to produce right off the hop and that has been the case for Lafreniere. Some of it is just him learning the ropes in the NHL and not getting the prime offensive minutes that are reserved for veterans. He’s had to learn how to play more along the boards and in between checks than in open ice, as the Rangers depth lines have struggled to drive play in recent years. Still, he scored 19 goals despite no power play time and not really having a set spot. We saw snippets of what he could do in the playoffs, especially in the Carolina series where his line with Flip Chytil carried them to a couple wins. Not every young player needs to learn how to play in a checking role to develop, but sometimes it helps for a guy with a larger frame like Lafreniere and now that he’s set to play on the top line, he should be in for a great season. Whether that’s with Zibanejad or Panarin remains to be seen, but he has a lot of tools that will make him a great complementary piece at the very least. Both guys will create a lot of open ice for him to create on the wing and he can show some of the skill that made him such a highly regarded prospect.

Alex Newhook, Colorado Avalanche

Most players with any iota of offensive skill are in for a great season if they land in Colorado. Alex Newhook’s rookie season didn’t go like this, but he showed flashes of his elite playmaking skill and had a few big moments during their cup run. He wasn’t expected to set the world on fire and Nazem Kadri’s career season helped Colorado ease Newhook into their lineup. Playing more of a depth role with time on the second power play unit, Newhook had a lot of plays set on the table for him and all he needed to do was thread the needle to make the final pass or finish it off. It shined more when he got to play with the likes of Andre Burakovsky instead of Tyson Jost or Logan O’Connor. With Nazem Kadri leaving, Colorado might hand him the keys on the second line. He showed some high-level skill in his rookie year, creating chances at an above-average rate and doing a good job of creating in transition, albeit with a limited workload. Making the jump from playing 13-14 minutes a game to 15-17 is never easy, Newhook will have a strong supporting cast with Colorado’s depth on the wings. He will be put in a great situation to succeed this year and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him fill Colorado’s 2C void seamlessly.

Connor McMichael, Washington Capitals

A sluggish second half overshadowed what was a promising rookie season for the Caps 2019 first round pick. Injuries forced him into a top-six role early in the year and he ran with the opportunity, showing great chemistry with the likes of Lars Eller and Conor Sheary. He didn’t look out of place at the NHL level and while the production wasn’t as good as some of his underlying stats, showing the ability to create chances, setup teammates and drive play is a good sign when it’s your first year in the league. The signing of Dylan Strome and re-signing of Marcus Johansson will make it tough for him to ascend in Washington’s lineup, as there is a lot of veteran talent on that roster who have their lineup spots written in ink instead of pencil. This makes him more of a darkhorse pick than a sure thing, but McMichael brings a bit of a wild card element to the table because his ceiling could be a lot higher than the likes of Sheary or Johansson. Washington has a decent history of having a solid “next wave” of forward talent to supplement their aging roster and McMichael is exactly the type of player that gives the Caps roster a second wind when they desperately need it. He just needs to earn the ice-time to do so.

Ryan Merkley, San Jose Sharks

This is a boom-or-bust pick, but the Sharks have no offensive talent on their blue line except for Erik Karlsson, who is in his 30’s and played only 50 games last season. There’s also a lack of proven top-four talent with Marc-Edouard Vlasic in the twilight of his career and Radim Simek battling injuries. In a rebuilding year, San Jose should be evaluating what they have in Merkley. We saw this briefly last year in his 39-game stint. Merkley was one of the Sharks better players at leading breakouts, not only creating clean exits but helping spring San Jose’s almost non-existent transition game. Leading the rush and making the long stretch pass are his calling cards and while that leads to more costly turnovers at the NHL level, there’s some rewards to be had there if the Sharks forwards do a better job at finishing. The biggest thing Merkley has going for him is the Sharks need someone to replace the explosive Brent Burns. A healthy Karlsson is likely getting the top power play minutes before Merkley but expect the Sharks former first pick to at least be on the second unit all year and maybe make the jump to the top-four if he can handle the minutes.

Cole Perfetti, Winnipeg Jets

When your OHL nickname is “Goal Perfetti,” you know expectations are high. Winnipeg gave Perfetti about a month’s worth of games last year and showed some great chemistry with the Jets top players. He rode shotgun with Pierre-luc Dubois and Kyle Connor, playing more of the third wheel on that line, doing most of the work off the puck in the neutral zone. He looked like he was more than ready for the NHL when the play was heading north, getting to the correct spots quickly, knowing where his linemates were without needing to look and having the skill to capitalize on defensive mistakes. It’s hard for even the best prospects to do this right off the hop, but Perfetti managed to in his brief NHL stint. The chemistry with Dubois and Connor will go a long way to him becoming a top player on the Jets, as that’s his key to staying in the top-six and he should be able to produce with either of those two. There’s a trend with goal-scoring forward prospects being more ready for the NHL at a younger age and Perfetti looks to be another one you can add to the list.