Ridly Greig – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – A Kings defenceman and Ducks winger are elevating their production, veterans Vladimir Tarasenko, Brent Burns, and Vincent Trocheck are producing, Josh Doan earns a contract extension, and so much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 23 Jan 2026 18:20:39 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - DECEMBER 21: Josh Doan #91 of the Buffalo Sabres skates during a game between the Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils at Prudential Center on December 21, 2025 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, a Kings defenceman and Ducks winger are elevating their production, veterans Vladimir Tarasenko, Brent Burns, and Vincent Trocheck are producing, Josh Doan earns a contract extension, and so much more!

#1 Los Angeles Kings defenceman Brandt Clarke has earned a bigger role as the season has progressed, and especially with Drew Doughty nursing an injury. In his past six games, Clarke has five points (1 G, 4 A) and 12 shots on goal, while averaging 21:49 of ice time per game. Clarke is generating 3.53 points per 60 during 5-on-4 play, which is clearly best among Kings defencemen, so he should have some security in the role as power play quarterback.

#2 Staying in Southern California, Anaheim Ducks rookie right winger Beckett Sennecke is similarly growing into a bigger role during his rookie season. In his past 11 games, Sennecke is averaging 19:52 of ice time per game, putting up nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 35 shots on goal. He is skating with veterans Mikael Granlund and Alex Killorn at even strength while also getting first unit power play time, and the rookie is making the most of his opportunities.

#3 There have been ups and downs this season for Minnesota Wild right winger Vladimir Tarasenko but when he’s cooking, the Wild benefit from his scoring. He may not be delivering like he did during his peak seasons, but the 34-year-old winger does have eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 18 shots on goal in his past five games. He is on a veteran line alongside centre Joel Eriksson Ek and Marcus Johansson, both returning from injuries for Thursday’s home game against Detroit.

#4 While he can get overlooked in Colorado, considering all the star power on the roster, Avalanche defenceman Brent Burns continues to be an effective contributor from the blueline. The 40-year-old defender has produced five points (3 G, 2 A) and 22 shots on goal in his past six games, and it’s a good reminder that, when he was at his best, Burns was an elite shot generator from the point, and he’s firing pucks again while the Avalanche tend to consistently dominate play.

#5 New York Rangers centre Vincent Trocheck is reportedly finding his way into trade rumours as the season appears to be getting away from the Blueshirts. The veteran pivot has three more years after this one remaining on his contract, but it’s at a reasonable price - $5.625 million cap hit – and he remains productive. In his past 13 games, Trocheck has 15 points (5 G, 10 A) and 28 shots on goal. What sets Trocheck apart, especially for fantasy managers, is that he also has 11 blocked shots and 29 hits in those 13 games, filling even peripheral statistical categories. Trocheck is on a line with Artemi Panarin and Alexis Lafreniere and it’s working right now, but Panarin is also in trade rumours, so who knows where these Rangers stars could be playing by the time the trade deadline arrives.

#6 Buffalo Sabres winger Josh Doan signed a seven-year, $49 million contract extension and the young winger has really taken advantage of the opportunities available in Buffalo this season after arriving in the offseason as part of the trade package from the Utah Mammoth for JJ Peterka. In his past 11 games, Doan has just 14 shots on goal but has still put up 11 points (5 G, 6 A) while averaging 17:31 of ice time per game. He has proven his ability as a scoring winger and is getting ice time with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch on the Sabres’ top line in addition to first unit power play time.

#7 The Calgary Flames traded defenceman Rasmus Andersson to the Vegas Golden Knights and there is some fallout for fantasy managers. In Vegas, Andersson is not likely to supplant Shea Theodore or Noah Hanifin on the power play, so that could limit Andersson’s offensive output. In Calgary, MacKenzie Weegar should return to the top power play unit and he’s a good buy-low option right now, as Weegar has zero points in his past eight games.

#8 Injuries have hindered Seattle Kraken left winger Jared McCann this season, but he is still a threat when he is in the lineup. In his past 13 games, McCann has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) with 32 shots on goal. He is scoring on 18.0 percent of his shots on goal this season, which is well above his career mark of 12.4 percent, so regression could be coming, but McCann is skating on the Kraken’s top line with Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle in addition to getting first unit power play time, so he is getting ample opportunity to live up to his scoring role.

#9 After a slow start to the season, Nashville Predators sniper Steven Stamkos started to find his way into trade rumours, which made sense given where the Predators were in the standings. However, once Stamkos started filling the net, the Preds suddenly turned into playoff contenders. They are right in the hunt now and in his past 21 games, Stamkos has scored 16 goals and 25 points, with 61 shots on goal. While he may not continue to score on 26.2 percent of his shots, as he has during this stretch, but he has scored on 16.7 percent of his shots throughout his career so it’s not like his shooting percentage should collapse.

#10 Every so often, New Jersey Devils centre Cody Glass can heat up for a short burst, showing why he was the sixth overall pick in the 2017 Draft. It tends not to last very long, but Glass does have six points (4 G, 2 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past six games. He is up to 11 goals on the season, which ties him for fourth on the Devils with Jesper Bratt and Jack Hughes, though Glass is more of a short-term pickup for fantasy managers.

#11 A 27-year-old winger for the Washington Capitals, Ethen Frank has battled to secure a regular spot in the lineup and is now starting to show some of the scoring ability that he displayed in the American Hockey League in previous seasons to earn his look with the Capitals. Frank tallied 82 goals and 127 points in 164 AHL games after his college career at Western Michigan. In his past seven games, Frank has six points (5 G, 1 A) and 18 shots on goal, while averaging 16:41 of ice time per game, a notable jump from the 12:03 per game he had been playing before that. Frank is skating with Nic Dowd and Alex Ovechkin at even strength while also getting second unit power play time, which is enough to put him on the radar of deep league fantasy managers.

#12 Detroit Red Wings centre Andrew Copp has emerged as a solid complementary scorer, holding the second-line centre spot between Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane. As the Wings have gone 7-1-1 in their past nine games, Copp has eight points (3 G, 5 A) with 16 shots on goal. He is up to 30 points (8 G, 22 A) in 52 games, giving him a chance to surpass 40 points for the third time in his career.

#13 Buffalo Sabres right winger Jack Quinn seems to drift in an out of fantasy relevance but when he’s going good, he is a quality source of secondary offence for the Sabres. In his past eight games, Quinn has seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 21 shots on goal and seems to have a good thing going with linemates Ryan McLeod and Jason Zucker at even strength along with some second unit power play time.

#14 As the Calgary Flames have become sellers before the NHL Trade Deadline, some of their younger players figure to get good opportunities for the rest of this season. Left winger Connor Zary is one of those players. The 2020 first-round pick has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 19 shots on goal and he is getting a look on Calgary’s top line, skating with Nazem Kadri and rookie Matvei Gridin, who has just been recalled from the American Hockey League, where Gridin had 28 points (10 G, 18 A) in 32 games for the Calgary Wranglers.

#15 It would be bold to recommend Colorado Avalanche forward Ross Colton, who has not scored a goal since November 26, but from the files of “rising tides lift all boats” it’s worth keeping an eye on him anyway. In the month of January, Colton has five assists in nine games, but he also has 33 shots on goal. He has 17.41 shots on goal per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play this month which is the highest shot rate in the entire league. He gets third line and second unit power play ice time, so there is a limit to Colton’s offensive upside, but his shot generation does suggest that he’s going to bust out and start scoring some goals soon.

#16 One of the best players in the league this season, Minnesota Wild left winger Matt Boldy has landed on the injured list with an undisclosed injury. Boldy is tied for fourth in the league with 27 goals in 48 games and he has been a play driving force with the Wild outshooting opponents and outscoring the opposition 38 to 21 during 5-on-5 play with Boldy on the ice. With Boldy out, Marcus Johansson secures a spot in Minnesota’s top six and while that is a drop off, Johansson has 14 points (5 G, 9 A) and 27 shots on goal in his past 18 games. That shot rate isn’t ideal, but Johansson is a reliable source of secondary offence.

#17 Florida Panthers defenceman Seth Jones has landed on LTIR due to an upper-body injury which will also prevent him from playing for Team USA in the Olympics, as he has been replaced on the roster by Anaheim Ducks defenceman Jackson LaCombe. In Florida, Jones’ absence means a bigger role for Aaron Ekblad, and the veteran blueliner does have four assists and 13 shots on goal in his past seven games. Also look to Uvis Balinskis, who is getting time on the top power play unit and has three points (2 G, 1 A) with seven shots on goal while averaging 21 minutes of ice time per game in his past five games.

#18 The logjam that was appearing on the New Jersey Devils blueline, which resulted in Dougie Hamilton being a healthy scratch, seems to be alleviated for the time being now that Luke Hughes is injured. Hughes’ shoulder injury will keep him out for at least a month, and he did have seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 15 shots on goal in his last 10 games prior to getting injured, with three of those seven points coming on the power play. With Hughes out, Hamilton resumes his spot as the quarterback of the Devils power play. He has seven assists and 12 shots on goal in his past six games.

#19 With Ottawa Senators veteran winger David Perron needing surgery for a sports hernia which will keep him out of the lineup for 5-7 weeks, look to Sens winger Ridly Greig, who is starting to heat up. Greig has seven points (2 G, 5 A) in his past five games and while he only has five shots on goal in that time, he is averaging more than 17 minutes of ice time per game and is skating on a line with Brady Tkachuk and Dylan Cozens, while also getting second-unit power play time, so Greig could build on this hot streak.

#20 Anaheim Ducks centre Leo Carlsson has landed on the injured list with a thigh injury that will keep him out 3-5 weeks following surgery. He has broken though offensively this season, tallying 44 points (18 G, 26 A) in 44 games but this injury is likely going to cost him his spot on Sweden’s Olympic Team. The Ducks’ forward lines have been depleted by injuries, with Carlsson, Troy Terry, Frank Vatrano, and Mason McTavish all dealing with various issues, so it’s an opportunity for a veteran like Ryan Strome to step up. Jansen Harkins has seen his ice time increase, but has not recorded a point in 2026, so maybe consider more proven scoring options for the Ducks.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – This week, the good and the bad with the Ottawa Senators, a young Ducks centre steps into the spotlight, a Wild rookie offering upside on the blueline, and a Red Wings veteran who is ready to find the net.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 17 Oct 2025 21:13:15 +0000

ST. PAUL, MN - APRIL 24: Minnesota Wild defenseman Zeev Buium (8) skates with the puck during the first period in Game Three of the First Round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs between the Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild on April 24th, 2025, at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, the good and the bad with the Ottawa Senators, a young Ducks centre steps into the spotlight, a Wild rookie offering upside on the blueline, and a Red Wings veteran who is ready to find the net.

#1 With six goals in five games, Ottawa Senators centre Shane Pinto is tied with Vegas Golden Knights winger Pavel Dorofeyev for the early goal-scoring lead in the National Hockey League. While he is obviously not going to continue at a 98-goal pace, Pinto does have some underlying factors that could help this become his best season in the NHL. The first is that his ice time is up nearly a minute per game from last season and the second is that his rate of shots per game has climbed from 1.81 last season to 3.0 per game early this season. It’s the consistent shot generation that helps to keep production sustainable.

#2 The more immediate concern for the Senators is that team captain Brady Tkachuk will be out from six-to-eight weeks following thumb surgery. Tkachuk is not easily replaced, because there are so few players of his size and physical nature that can also produce offensively. Ridly Greig is getting a chance alongside Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux on Ottawa’s top line, and there is enough time for him to show what he can do in a bigger role.

#3 After making steady progress through his first two NHL seasons, Anaheim Ducks centre Leo Carlsson could be ready to bust out in his third season. He has started the year with six points (2 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal in four games. He currently has veterans Chris Kreider and Alex Killorn on his wings, but Carlsson has had success with Troy Terry on his wing and, last season, thrived with Cutter Gauthier. There are options for the Ducks, but it appears that 20-year-old Carlsson might be ready to be the driving force on his line.

#4 Expectations have been very high for Minnesota Wild defenceman Zeev Buium since he was taken with the 12th pick in the 2024 NHL Draft. He had 98 points (24 G, 74 A) in 83 games in two seasons at the University of Denver, but he has started with five points (1 G, 4 A) in four games this season for the Wild and, crucially, is quarterbacking Minnesota’s first power play unit.

#5 He has yet to score a goal through four games, but the rest of his numbers are very encouraging for Detroit Red Wings winger Alex DeBrincat. He has generated 32 shot attempts and 15 shots on goal to go along with six assists in four games. That shot rate of 3.75 per game would be the highest rate of his career, despite fewer than half of his attempts making it on net. Prior to this season, he had hit the net on 54.3 percent of his shot attempts, so he is only down a little in this small sample, but he is putting up eight shot attempts per game and his previous career high during a full season was just under 5.9 shot attempts per game, so the opportunities are there and it’s fair to expect the goals to follow.

#6 As noted above, Chris Kreider is spending most of his time skating on Leo Carlsson’s wing in Anaheim, and he’s getting results early with five points (4 G, 1 A) and 12 shots on goal in four games. In all of his seasons with the Rangers, Kreider managed to average three shots on goal per game just twice and those were the 2021-2022 and 2023-2024 seasons, when he scored 52 and 39 goals, respectively, the two best goal-scoring seasons of his career. If playing with Carlsson helps keep Kreider’s shot rate at this level, he could be primed for a bounce-back season with the Ducks.

#7 It’s not as though fantasy managers will be unaware of Washington Capitals winger Aliaksei Protas who broke through with 30 goals and 66 points last season, but one of the concerns about his production was that he was very dependent on percentages, scoring on 21.1 percent of his shots, and a lofty 14.3 on-ice shooting percentage at five-on-five. He is still getting those high percentages on his way to five points (3 G, 2 A) in Washington’s first four games, but he also has 13 shots on goal and is playing 18:55 per game, both of which are notably higher than last season when he averaged fewer than two shots on goal per game and played 16:27 per game.

#8 It’s easy enough to get underrated when playing for the Chicago Blackhawks, given the state of the team these days, but veteran winger Teuvo Teravainen is off to a nice start with six points (1 G, 5 A) in five games, though he has managed just three shots on goal. He’s more playmaker than shooter, but that total is still low. Nevertheless, Teravainen does seem to have a good thing going early in the year on a line with Frank Nazar and Tyler Bertuzzi, so it’s worth keeping an eye on his production.

#9 A couple of power play assists early helped to jumpstart Pavel Zacha’s season for the Boston Bruins. He has five points (1 G, 4 A) in five games while skating on a line with Casey Mittelstadt and Viktor Arvidsson at even strength, but Zacha is on Boston’s top power play unit and the opportunity to share the ice with David Pastrnak is a critical factor to point production for any Bruins skaters, it seems. Zacha is not a volume shooter, having never recorded even 150 shots on goal in a season, but four shots on goal in five games this season is still rather low.

#10 Seattle Kraken left winger Jared McCann is one of the more established goal scorers on the roster and is off to a nice start with four points (3 G, 1 A) in four games this season. Skating on Seattle’s top line with Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle, McCann has recorded 14 shots on goal and 28 shot attempts, both of which represent higher per-game rates (3.5 shots, 7.0 shot attempts) than he has been able to sustain in his career, so even if McCann isn’t going to keep scoring on a pace of 60-plus goals, he is getting the underlying numbers that will support strong offensive production.

#11 Seeking a fresh start in Philadelphia with John Tortorella no longer behind the bench, veteran Flyers centre Sean Couturier has seen his ice time jump by a couple of minutes per game compared to last season and he has five points (2 G, 3 A) with six shots on goal through four games. He has been on the wrong end of the shot counts early, with a 41.4 percent Corsi, but shot quality has played in Couturier’s favor with a 51.1 percent expected goals percentage during five-on-five play. Couturier last topped 50 points in a season back in 2019-2020, but he’s skating with Travis Konecny and Matvei Michkov on Philadelphia’s top line, so he ought to have a chance to get there this season.

#12 When the Nashville Predators collapsed last season, some of their high-profile free agent signings ended up with lacklustre production. For example, Jonathan Marchessault went from 42 goals in Vegas in 2023-2024 to 21 goals for Nashville last season. Early this season, Marchessault has four points (2 G, 2 A) in five games, but his 15 shots on goal and 26 shot attempts move closer to the years of his best production in Vegas, so maybe that’s a positive sign for Nashville as a team and Marchessault when it comes to his individual production.

#13 With four goals in four games, it would be very easy to get excited about St. Louis Blues left winger Jake Neighbours. He has moved up to the top line, with Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich, so that’s encouraging, too, but Neighbours’ ice time is down nearly a minute-and-a-half per game from last season, and he has just six shots on goal in four games. If he’s going to stick with Thomas and Buchnevich, that is probably reason enough to be optimistic but be a little bit wary of his underlying performance.

#14 Coming off of a 41-point season, with his lowest points per game since 2016-2017, Toronto Maple Leafs defenceman Morgan Rielly was a bit of a buy-low option coming into the season. He also had some upside because, with Mitch Marner leaving for Vegas, there was room for Rielly to quarterback Toronto’s No. 1 power play unit again. Thus far, Rielly has delivered, putting up five points (1 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal in five games. Rielly has only surpassed 200 shots in a season twice in his career, so that shot rate is very encouraging.

#15 A bargain acquisition in the offseason from the Los Angeles Kings, Ottawa Senators defenceman Jordan Spence has been excellent in the early going for the Senators. He has contributed four assists and seven shots on goal in three games and while he is averaging 18:30 of ice time per game, Spence is also dominating his five-on-five minutes, with a Corsi percentage of 67.6 percent and an expected goals percentage of 78.2 percent. It’s not going to be easy to get power play time with Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot ahead of him on the depth chart, so maybe that limits Spence’s upside, but he is worth keeping tabs on.

#16 With the New York Rangers losing centre Vincent Trocheck to an upper-body injury that will keep him out a month, Mika Zibanejad has moved back into the middle of the ice for the Blueshirts. That has created an opening on the right wing in New York’s top six, and veteran winger Conor Sheary is getting a look in that role. He only has one assist and eight shots on goal in six games, but his ice time has gone up, and he has averaged 17:57 time on ice per game in his past two contests. It’s not enough to warrant picking up Sheary, but worth seeing if he can make the most of his opportunity.

#17 The Rangers have had huge problems scoring early in the season, managing just 11 goals through six games. Zibanejad has one goal on 24 shots, Alexis Lafreniere has one goal on 21 shots and Will Cuylle has one goal on 17 shots. These are players skating in top six roles. Add in Artemi Panarin with zero goals on 13 shots and J.T. Miller with one goal in 10 shots, and the most encouraging aspect for the Rangers is that these guys can’t all keep shooting at such low percentages. Eventually, the dam will break and pucks will start to go in the net, so maybe the Rangers offer some buy-low opportunities right now.

#18 Some players have just been snakebit early. Here are the players with the highest individual expected goals total in all situations that have yet to score. Number one is Connor McDavid with 2.29 ixG, followed by David Tomasek (2.09), Alex DeBrincat (2.04), Connor McMichael (1.96), and Nick Suzuki (1.94). The takeaway for any of them is that they are due to start scoring. As any slumping goal-scorer will tell you, they worry more when they aren’t getting the chances and these players are getting chances.

#19 At the other end of the spectrum, Toronto Maple Leafs winger Calle Jarnkrok has scored three goals despite recording just 0.5 individual expected goals, suggesting that he may not continue at his current goal-scoring pace. He is averaging 11:08 of ice time per game and has eight shots on goal, so expectations would be understandably modest, but those goals are not necessarily the product of lots of great opportunities.

#20 With Mackenzie Blackwood recovering from injury, Scott Wedgewood has been excellent in goal for the Avalanche, earning 4.71 goals saved above expected (GSAx) in four starts. Other goalies excelling early: Igor Shesterkin (7.20 GSAx), Thatcher Demko (5.38 GSAx), and Spencer Knight (3.74 GSAx). On the other hand, Linus Ullmark (-4.09 GSAx), Dustin Wolf (-4.04 GSAx), Alex Nedeljkovic (-3.65 GSAx), Adin Hill (-3.05 GSAx), and Samuel Montembeault (-2.81 GSAx) are goalies that have started multiple games and have allowed the most goals relative to expectations. It is very early, but good to have this information when evaluating goalie options.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – OTTAWA SENATORS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 19:52:02 +0000

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 29: Ottawa Senators Center Dylan Cozens (24) skates with the puck during the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup playoffs first round game five between the Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs on April 29, 2025, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

After missing the playoffs for seven straight seasons, the Senators finally returned to the postseason in 2024-2025, recording 97 points (45-30-7). They lost in six games in the first round to the Toronto Maple Leafs, which was disappointing but not altogether unexpected. They were a middling possession team, ranking 14th in Corsi percentage (50.3) and 18th in expected goals percentage (49.6). Ottawa scored 7.68 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranked 16th. They also ranked 16th with 7.09 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play, so this is a very average team based on those numbers. What lifted them above that, however, is goaltending. Linus Ullmark, Anton Forsberg, and Leevi Merilainen combined to give the Sens a .908 save percentage which helped boost a mostly average team into the playoffs.

What’s Changed?

The Senators did not stray too far from their playoff roster, maintaining a lot of continuity heading into this season. They signed veteran checking centre Lars Eller, who had been with the Washington Capitals, winger Arthur Kaliyev, who was last with the New York Rangers, and made a savvy addition to their blueline, trading for Jordan Spence of the Los Angeles Kings. Forsberg signed as a free agent in Los Angeles, but the Senators already had Merilainen ready to step into the backup role, so that should be a seamless transition for them in goal. Free agent forward Adam Gaudette signed with the St. Louis Blues and veteran defenceman Travis Hamonic remains without a contract. Those are not a lot of changes, so the Senators have to be looking to build on last season’s success with the vast majority of the team that brought that success.

What would success look like?

At this point, the playoffs have to be expected for the Senators, though it’s obviously not to be taken for granted. The team had middle-of-the-road numbers except for goaltending, so if they are going to be assured of success, they need to play better in all situations, so that they are above average in all of those aspects. If the Sens could be a Top 10 or Top 12 team at five-on-five, five-on-four, and four-on-five, and have strong goaltending on top of that, then that’s a team that could be expected to do more than just show up in the playoffs. Winning a playoff round would be a successful season for the Sens in 2025-2026.

What could go wrong?

There is a fine line when a team depends on its goaltending, because it’s an unpredictable position and it’s just one guy between the pipes, with no one to pick him up if he’s not performing. So, if the Senators don’t get strong goaltending, then suddenly they could be left scrambling for a playoff spot, but that’s precisely why the team needs to show improvement. They have quality talent with depth to handle potential injuries, so that should mitigate any down sides, but the Senators are not safe enough in the playoff picture to be expected to just cruise past every hurdle, so an injury to a key player, a goaltending slump, some bad bounces at the wrong time could still prevent them from making a second straight playoff appearance.

Top Breakout Candidate

After he was acquired from the San Jose Sharks last season, Fabian Zetterlund arrived in Ottawa and produced shockingly little. He had five points (2 G, 3 A) and 40 shots on goal with the Senators and then had zero points and six shots on goal in six playoff games against the Maple Leafs. The Senators responded by giving Zetterlund a three-year, $12.825 million contract, a vote of confident for the sturdy young winger. More importantly, Zetterlund looks like he could get a shot with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle on the Senators’ top line and if that happens, then the opportunity is there for Zetterlund to have the best offensive output of his career.

FORWARDS

Tim Stützle

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	36	53	89	1.09

The German center compiled what was arguably the best season of his career in 2024-25. Even though his 24 goals and 76 points fell short of the 39 goals and 91-point regular season highs he established during his 2022-23 campaign, Stützle boosted his overall worth by having the best defensive performance of his career. According to Evolving-Hockey's 'total defence' (DEF) metric that combines all of a player's five-on-five and shorthanded contributions into one encompassing metric, Stützle more than quadrupled his previous best (4.1 DEF in 2024-25, 0.8 in 2021-22) for defensive value. Stützle has a substantial impact on the Senators' offence and defence when he is on the ice. If there are any knocks to the center's game, they rest exclusively on his 47.8 percent faceoff success rate and the fact that he often does not play selfishly enough at five-on-five. The good news is that he improved in the faceoff dot for a fourth consecutive season, while acknowledging in his end-of-season media availability that he knows that he needs to shoot more. If Stützle can maintain his defensive gains while winning more draws and electing to shoot more, he could be in line for a massive season. More puck possession and any improvement on a five-on-five shot rate (5.43) that was by far the worst of his career will improve this team's even strength scoring woes. Yet, even without those improvements, 'wins above replacement' (WAR) metric rated only two forwards (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl) as contributing more value than Stützle last season.

Brady Tkachuk

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	40	37	77	0.95

The Senators' captain bolstered his reputation as a shot volume-producing machine. Of the forwards who logged more than 500 minutes of five-on-five ice time during the regular season, no player in the league generated more shots than Tkachuk's 11.82 per 60 minutes. Unfortunately, the rugged forward sustained a lower-body injury during the 4 Nations Face-Off, which limited his availability and effectiveness down the stretch leading into the postseason. Tkachuk's 29 goals and 55 points in 72 games represented his lowest production totals since the Covid-shortened 2020-21 season, in which he recorded 17 goals and 36 points in 56 games. Had he enjoyed better health, he undoubtedly would have surpassed the 30-goal threshold for a fourth consecutive season. Despite lower production totals, his five-on-five shot rate was not far removed from his career norm, while his shooting percentage (5.67) was the worst of his career. If he continues to generate that volume while his shooting percentage normalizes, his production should comfortably return to previous levels. Thanks to that shot volume and his willingness to go to the dirty areas, it feels like in one of these years, if he gets the bounces and his shooting percentage climbs into the low to mid-teens, Brady will score 45 to 50 goals. He continues to play with a physical edge that makes him such a unique and dynamic player. He joined Vincent Trocheck and Tom Wilson as one of only three players last season to record more than 25 goals and 200 hits.

Drake Batherson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	29	37	66	0.80

The Senators' right winger is often paradoxical in the sense that he is a model of consistency while leaving a feeling that he is capable of more. Batherson has played in all of the Senators' 82 regular season games in each of the last three seasons while compiling more than 20 goals and 60 points in each of them, being one of only 11 players who surpassed those two thresholds and recorded more than 100 hits. Batherson scored 26 goals while contributing a career-best 68 points in 2024-25, but the organization was compelled to make a move at the trade deadline to give their talented right winger the play-driving center he needed to not only generate offence but help take the puck and sustain play in the offensive zone. Following the March 7th trade deadline, the 27-year-old led the Senators in scoring with 10 goals and 19 points in the team's final 21 games. There is an expectation that Batherson will return to play on the Senators' second line alongside center Dylan Cozens, but there may be a chance the right winger could replace Claude Giroux on the team's first line. If he does, it would represent an incredible opportunity to shatter his previous career highs.

Dylan Cozens

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	20	38	58	0.71

Acquired by the Senators in a stunning trade deadline deal that moved the popular Josh Norris to Buffalo, Cozens' addition immediately began paying dividends. There was no secret to the success; the change represented a better and healthier fit. Where Josh Norris was a center who was strong on faceoffs and a finisher, Cozens was a big and physical center who could take the puck from the Senators' end and navigate it safely through the neutral zone, creating clean entries and sustained offensive zone pressure. After scoring 31 goals and adding 37 helpers during his career-best 2022-23 campaign, Cozens has failed to replicate that success. Granted, it may have been naive to believe that those numbers were sustainable, given the fact that his shooting percentage was approximately five percent higher than his career average. Through his first 11 games with the Senators, he tallied three goals and nine points while generating 29 shots on goal. When he was on the ice at five-on-five per, the Senators generated 48.06 percent of the shots (CF%), 50.36 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 60 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 47.10 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). In his last 10 games, the center contributed two goals, five assists and 20 shots while the Senators' five-on-five shot and goal metrics cratered. These are incredibly small sample sizes, but if the Senators are serious about transitioning from a prospective playoff team to a true Stanley Cup contender, they will need their second line to not only be productive but also tilt the ice in their team's favour against the opposition's best.

Claude Giroux

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	15	40	55	0.69

Heading into the offseason, there were genuine concerns about whether the 37-year-old veteran remained a fit for the Ottawa Senators. Giroux's shot rate (iCF/60), shot on goal rate (iSF/60), goal rate (G/60), and expected goal rate (xG/60) were all easily the lowest of his career. Collectively, the Senators struggled to produce goals at five-on-five. Only the Nashville Predators finished with fewer five-on-five goals than the Senators. Giroux's offensive decline in 2024-25 could be a microcosm of the Senators' problems. Too often, it felt like the team chased quality at the expense of quantity, and he could afford to be more selfish with the puck. He scored on 10.9 percent of his shots last season, so he can still fire the puck. He also contributed 15 goals and 50 points, but it is reasonable to wonder how much his production would decline if he stopped playing the majority of his minutes with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle. In fairness to Giroux, HockeyViz's data demonstrates he has continued to maintain strong isolated impacts on both offence and defence. Having the league's best faceoff rate, winning 61.5 percent, serves as a nice insulator for Stützle on important draws, but if the offence continues to diminish, it could create an opportunity for Drake Batherson or Fabian Zetterlund on the first line.

Fabian Zetterlund

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	22	25	47	0.57

Like Dylan Cozens, the addition of Fabian Zetterlund in the waning minutes of the trade deadline was an unexpected but welcomed depth move. The Swedish winger tallied 24 goals and 44 points during San Jose's 2023-24 season and was well on his way to surpassing those totals after he was dealt to the Senators. Unfortunately, for the second time in his career, Zetterlund struggled to produce following a deadline trade. During the 2022-23 campaign, he was dealt to the Sharks and failed to record a goal in 22 games. With the Senators, he only tallied two goals and five points in 20 games. His usage began modestly, starting on the fourth line with second power play unit duties. Zetterlund would eventually ascend the lineup, playing a variety of roles, but his lack of production elicited concern. The Senators signed him to a three-year extension carrying a $4.25 million AAV, so they do not share those worries. If his underlying metrics were commensurately unimpressive, it would be troubling. Instead, he ranked second on the team behind only Brady Tkachuk in several individual offensive stats, such as shot rate, expected goals, and scoring chances. Zetterlund was shooting the puck and creating chances at a career-high rate in Ottawa, but it coincided with a team-worst 3.13 shooting percentage at five-on-five. If he continues to generate high-rate stats while enjoying better luck, his production will inevitably match or better his career norms.

Ridly Greig

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	16	29	45	0.56

Ridly Greig's sophomore season represented a marked step forward in many respects. He was the Senators' swiss-army-knife, moving up and down the lineup, filling a hole wherever needed. He averaged 17:05 of ice time per game last season, which marked a two-and-a-half-minute improvement over his previous year's number. This jump reflected the trust that Travis Green and the coaching staff had in Greig's defensive abilities. His most common linemates were Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio, and the trio was tasked nightly with the responsibility of shutting down the opposition's top line. This duty allowed him to shine in a pest role, where his knack for getting underneath the opponents' skin was effective. His line played well given their difficult assignments, generating 46.76 percent of the shots (CF%), 51.25 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 48.77 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 51.41 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). This line will likely start the year together in 2024-25, but the organization has historically referred to Greig as a center. If any of the Senators' centers fall to injury, expect Greig to wind up back in the middle. In the interim, he can be expected to play a significant defensive role on the third line and first penalty kill unit.

Shane Pinto

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	23	26	49	0.61

Having lost the first half of his 2023-24 season to suspension following a league investigation into a gambling account, the 2024-25 campaign represented a blank slate for Pinto. The Senators' third line center responded by establishing new career highs in goals (21) and points (37) while predominantly getting matched against the opposition's most skilled forwards. The 2024-25 campaign is an important one for the center, who will turn 25 years old in November. Pinto is in the last year of a two-year extension that he signed in July of 2024, carrying a $3.75 million AAV. As one of the Senators' best defensive forwards, he has an opportunity to cash in on a long-term extension with a big year. The challenge will be to expand his offensive game. Goal scoring has never been the issue, as he averaged more than 21 goals per 82 games across the last three seasons. Zetterlund's addition at the deadline bumped Pinto from second-unit power play duties, and he finished the season averaging 1:07 of PP/TOI per game. Travis Green preferred to use the Pinto line out after a power play to match up against the opposition's skilled players. Adam Gaudette's departure as a free agent should create the opportunity to get more minutes on the power play, which should help boost his offensive numbers.

David Perron

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	18	24	42	0.57

Hardships characterized Perron's 2024-25 season campaign. His first half was derailed by a back injury and an illness to his unborn daughter that necessitated surgery during pregnancy and after she was born. Perron took a leave of absence from the team and did not play regularly until the end of January. He ultimately played 43 games for the Senators, scoring nine goals and 16 points and being the team's nominee for the Masterton Trophy. The 37-year-old is one of the slowest skaters in the league. Of all the forwards in the NHL who played more than 500 minutes, only four skaters recorded fewer 18-plus miles per hour bursts than Perron. Despite that lack of speed, he remains an effective player. He finished third on the Senators amongst regulars in individual expected goals per 60 behind Brady Tkachuk and Fabian Zetterlund. It speaks to his skill set that he can overcome his size and speed. Perron's competitiveness, ability to protect the puck, and willingness to go to the net and dig the puck out along the wall create an opportunity for his team to extend shifts in the offensive zone. This diversification of skills allows him to play in a variety of roles. Although he may be slated to start the season on the fourth line, he can seamlessly ascend the lineup and play in a more skilled role.

DEFENCE

Jake Sanderson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	14	48	62	0.77

It was almost a tale of two seasons for the smooth-skating Sanderson. He was supposed to start alongside his regular playing partner, Artem Zub, but a concussion and fractured foot injury forced the defenceman to miss 26 games in the first half of the season. Zub's absence and the organization's lack of faith in their depth options put the team in the uncomfortable position of relying on veteran Travis Hamonic. When this pairing was on the ice in their almost 400 five-on-five minutes together, the Senators generated 49.00 percent of the shots (CF%), 50.67 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 24.05 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 46.74 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). When he played with Zub, the numbers climbed to 51.28 CF%, 52.38 SF%, 47.38 GF%, and 55.59 xGF%. Separating Sanderson from one of the worst statistical defencemen in the league last season will do wonders for the player and the Senators. Of all the defencemen in the league last season who played more than 500 five-on-five minutes, only four had a lower on-ice shooting percentage than Sanderson. The worst? Travis Hamonic. Despite the circumstances, he finished with a career high of 11 goals and 57 points in 80 games, becoming the sixth defenceman in franchise history to record more than 50 points in a season. Sanderson is already a great defensive player, but Ottawa's improved defensive depth should allow him the opportunity he needs to continue to strengthen his offensive numbers and allow him to contend for a Norris Trophy.

Thomas Chabot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	8	34	42	0.60

The 2024-25 season was an important one for the longest-tenured member of the Ottawa Senators. After undergoing corrective surgery to resolve a wrist problem that had afflicted him for years, Chabot responded with one of the most complete seasons of his career. He contributed nine goals and 45 points while posting significantly improved defensive metrics. Less was more for the Senators and Chabot as the defenceman's 23:01 of ice time per game represented his lowest average ice time since he averaged 17:31 per game as a rookie in 2017-18. Having a regular defensive partner in Nick Jensen assuredly helped, too. For years, Chabot's performance suffered because of injuries, overuse and a lack of continuity. In 2024-25, he put together one of his best seasons as a pro. His 'wins above replacement' (WAR) metric rated Chabot as creating the fifth-highest amount of value amongst NHL defencemen. For the first half of the season, he had one of the highest WARs in the entire league, before Nick Jensen's hip injury impacted his effectiveness down the stretch. From October through December, this pairing was one of the best in the league, with the Senators generating 54.52 percent of the shots (CF%), 54.98 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 59.62 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 54.49 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). If the pairing can approach that level in 2025-26, Chabot should be in line for another strong season.

Nick Jensen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	3	16	19	0.26

Acquired last summer with a draft selection in a trade for Jakob Chychrun, the deal was panned in some circles because it represented a sell-low value considering the opportunity cost used to acquire Chychrun the year prior. Rather than continue the previous regime's pattern of chasing names, Steve Staios and his staff prioritized good fits, and Jensen was one last season. His bottom line only shows three goals and 21 points in 71 games played, but his on-ice contributions and impact on partner Thomas Chabot were unmistakable. Jensen's ability to skate, retrieve pucks and move the puck competently served as a nice complement to Chabot. But, once Jensen suffered a chronic hip injury, it sank the pairing's numbers. In their final 43 games, the Senators only generated 48.40 percent of the shots (CF%), 44.74 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 46.67 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 44.33 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). Jensen turns 35 years old this September, so it is reasonable to expect some level of decline in his game, but it will be worth monitoring how he recovers from this injury. The organization remains optimistic that he will be ready to start the season, but they need more than him to be available. The Senators need Jensen to resemble the player he was for the first three months of the 2024-25 season if they are to continue their ascent in the Eastern Conference.

Jordan Spence

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	4	27	31	0.40

Heading into the offseason, the Senators' most significant need was to address their quality of depth on right defence. Thanks to the injuries that Artem Zub and Nick Jensen suffered last season, it became clear that the Senators could ill afford to give minutes and significant responsibilities to players who were simply out of their element. The addition of Spence serves as an insulator on that right side, and he is a good one. In 79 games for the Kings last season, the 24-year-old recorded four goals and 28 points while averaging 16:47 of ice time per game. His underlying metrics were excellent. When Spence was on the ice at five-on-five, the Kings generated 56.80 percent of the shots (CF%), 56.98 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 65.43 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 56.88 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). He did play sheltered minutes on one of the better defensive teams in the league, so that is something to be mindful of. He will likely be partnered with Tyler Kleven on the third pairing to start the season, but as an undersized defenceman, he could draw out for Nik Matinpalo depending on the matchup. At the very least, his exceptional puck-moving ability brings a dynamic to the right side that was previously lacking, and his presence affords the Senators the patience to develop the well-regarded prospect, Carter Yakemchuk, at the AHL level.

Goal

Linus Ullmark

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
63	32	22	5	5	.910	2.75

Boston's loss was most certainly Ottawa's gain last year, as they got a chance to trot out one half of the league's most formidable tandem en route to the franchise's first postseason appearance since 2017. Linus Ullmark was crucial in Ottawa's step forward, providing the kind of consistency he's been counted on for years now; he rarely puts up games full of highlight-worthy saves, but his technique is hard to shake and it's rare he'll put up more than a handful of truly bad performances over the course of the entire year. And while prospect Mads Søgaard didn't quite live up to the hype once again during his limited NHL appearances, fellow prospect Leevi Merilainen was more than up to the task -- and he'll enter next season as the surprising backup darling to Ullmark as Ottawa looks to prove they can string together consecutive postseason appearances.

The biggest question mark for Ottawa will be just how many games Merilainen can take on over the course of the regular season, since Ullmark plays his best hockey when he's able to manage his workload and split starts more regularly. If Merilainen struggles to step into a true tandem role, Ullmark's health becomes a concern. For a team that spent more than a few years desperately trying to chase the reliable presence Craig Anderson brought to the crease, though, Ullmark is a welcome face - and if Merilainen is able to continue progressing as a tandem backup, Ottawa could become a real threat.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – OTTAWA SENATORS – Team Preview

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 16:00:11 +0000

_{OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 21: Ottawa Senators Left Wing Brady Tkachuk (7) before a face-off during second period National Hockey League action between the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators on October 21, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)}

Although the Ottawa Senators entered last season with expectations that they could challenge for a playoff spot, that dream never really materialized as they finished with 78 points (37-41-4). They struggled to a 16-24-1 record while centre Shane Pinto was suspended for the first half of the season and could not make up that deficit to get back into the playoff picture. The Senators ranked 19th with a 49.8% Corsi and 22nd with an expected goals percentage of 48.8%. Their power play was tied for 25th with 6.43 goals per 60 minutes and their penalty killing ranked 30th with 9.51 goals allowed per 60 minutes. They were a little below average at full strength and worse on special teams, so it shouldn’t come as any surprise that the Senators didn’t really challenge for a playoff spot.

WHAT’S CHANGED? The new ownership and front office in Ottawa started making changes following the disappointing campaign. Travis Green was hired to be the head coach, replacing Jacques Martin, who had stepped in to replace D.J. Smith during the season. The Sens made a move to acquire goaltender Linus Ullmark from Boston, with centre Mark Kastelic and goaltender Joonas Korpisalo part of the package going to the Bruins. Defenceman Jakob Chychrun was traded to Washington, with right-shot defender Nick Jensen coming to Ottawa in return. Right winger Mathieu Joseph was traded to St. Louis. Left winger Parker Kelly and defenceman Erik Brannstrom both signed in Colorado as free agents. The Senators signed free agent wingers David Perron from Detroit, Michael Amadio from Vegas, and Noah Gregor from Toronto.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Maybe a year later, the Senators will have a fighting chance for a playoff berth. Ullmark should be a significant upgrade between the pipes and a full season from Pinto increases the chances that Ottawa will be playing meaningful hockey in March and April. Since the Sens have gone seven seasons without a trip to the playoffs, actually getting in would definitely be recognized as success. It would require some young players to step up their games, but it’s also not some pie-in-the-sky idea. If Ottawa’s complementary players contribute and the stars produce at a high level, then the goaltending upgrade could be what pushes the Senators over the top.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? With the addition of Ullmark, expectations should go up in Ottawa. While last year’s acquisition of Joonas Korpisalo was fraught from the start, the Senators have legitimate reason to be optimistic about their goaltending this season. This is where it could go wrong. If the Senators still can’t turn in a season with at least 90 points, something that will keep them in the playoff hunt, the disappointment will be substantial. The relatively new owner doesn’t have to make up for everything from the previous regime, but that baggage is hanging around and it will until the Sens finally turn the corner.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Jake Sanderson and Ridly Greig are viable candidates as well, but Shane Pinto was rather impressive in his half a season of work after returning from suspension last season. The 23-year-old centre contributed 27 points in 41 games, but he did so with a shooting percentage of 8.2% and an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.5%. By playing a full season and getting some positive regression out of those percentages, Pinto should obliterate his previous career high of 35 points, set in 2022-23. He will compete for playing time down the middle with Josh Norris, but Norris has had so much trouble staying healthy that Pinto should be able to secure a regular spot in a scoring role.

Forwards

Brady Tkachuk

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	44	37	81	1.01

From the moment Brady Tkachuk entered the league, it always felt like it was a matter of time before one of the league's highest-volume shot generators would develop into a prodigious goal-scoring talent. Only David Pastrnak registered a higher individual shot rate last season. That production allowed Tkachuk to register a new career high in shots (357) and establish a new high with 37 goals. It marked the third time the power forward surpassed the 30-goal threshold in his career. Tkachuk had the league's fifth-highest expected goal rate (1.83 ixG/60) in 2023-24. That metric is a product of Brady's willingness to create havoc in front of opposing goaltenders. His all-situations shooting percentage has sat slightly above the 10 percent mark in each of his last three seasons. That mark is respectable, but it does lend itself to the idea that if Tkachuk maintains his shot generation and enjoys any spike in luck that pushes his shooting percentage north near 12 to 14 percent, this is a player who has the potential to tally 40 to 50 goals. Considering how Tkachuk also finished the season with the third-highest total number of hits (294), that blend of physicality and offensive potential makes him one of the most unique players in the league.

Tim Stützle

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	28	60	88	1.09

Tim Stützle's 2023-24 campaign was a sobering reminder that not every young player's development and production growth will be linear. After scoring a sparkling 39 goals and 90 points in 2022-23, Stützle experienced a marked drop in production last season. The German registered 18 goals and 70 points in 75 games. It was probably fair to expect some regression in his shooting percentage after it leapt to 17.1 percent in 2022-23, but it was plainly evident that Stützle was a less dangerous player shooting the puck. His shooting percentage in all situations was 9.4 percent, which represented a career low. He also experienced some depreciation in his defensive game. At least some of his setbacks can be explained by the team’s struggles under former head coach D.J. Smith. Fortunately, there is a physical explanation for this. At the end of the season, Stützle acknowledged that a wrist injury he suffered in the fourth game of the season bothered him throughout the campaign. If the offseason affords his wrist the necessary time to mend, a completely healthy Timmy will go a long way to bolstering the Senators' forward core.

Claude Giroux

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	21	42	63	0.77

In case anyone needed a gauge to know how fast time flies, Claude Giroux is entering the final year of the three-year, $19.5 million contract he signed in 2022. Although the team's performance has not lived up to the fostered expectations when the popular veteran returned home, Giroux has fulfilled his end of the deal by playing in every one of the Senators' games over the last two seasons. He will turn 37 in January, but he has maintained strong levels of production into what is supposed to be the declining stage of his career. His production rates did experience a dip from his 2022-23 campaign, where he tallied 35 goals and 79 points. Giroux's goal rate (0.76 G/60) represented his lowest mark since the 2018-19 season. His point rate (2.33 Pts/60) represented his lowest rate since the 2019-20 campaign. Despite the drop in production, he still contributed 21 goals and 64 points while providing the leadership and competitiveness the organization desperately needs to support its young core. Although he no longer plays centre, Giroux's ability to take draws in the faceoff circle is essential for a Senators team featuring several young pivots. Of the players who took over 200 faceoffs last season, Giroux's 58.0 percent success rate was the ninth highest in the league. Although Tim Stützle improved his faceoff success rate from 41.6 to 46.7 percent over the last two years, it remains a weakness in his game. With Josh Norris coming off another shoulder surgery and Ridly Greig posting a lowly 43.9 percent success rate, the Senators can shelter their development by relying on Giroux.

Drake Batherson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	26	47	73	0.89

Despite eclipsing the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career during the 2022-23 season, it still felt like Drake Batherson had more to give. After spending the previous two years scoring on more than 15 percent of his shots on goal, Batherson's 2022-23 shooting percentage (8.8) represented the lowest mark of his career. He overcame that drop in efficiency by shooting the puck more than he ever had. In 2023-24, his shooting efficiency returned. He posted career highs in goals (28) and points (66) while registering 53 fewer shots on net. The hope is that there is still more room for offensive growth provided he can strike a balance between last season's efficiency and his shot volume levels from 2022-23. Along with Brady Tkachuk and Shane Pinto, Batherson was one of only three Senators regulars to average more than one expected goal per 60 minutes of ice time. He led the Senators in primary assists per 60 (1.17 A1/60) while finishing second in even strength goals (21) and power play goals (7). He tied Tkachuk for the club-leading 22 power play points.

David Perron

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	16	26	42	0.56

A prominent theme of the Senators' offseason was management prioritizing veteran leadership to offset the inexperience of the team's young core. Perhaps more importantly, management added veterans who could also contribute value on the ice. At 36 years old, David Perron is a depreciating talent entering the final years of his career. And, at that, there is a risk the Senators overpaid by awarding him with a two-year deal averaging $4 million AAV. Perron's goals and points per 60 rate have declined for two straight years, but his 2023-24 marks (0.86 G/60, 2.37 Pts/60) are not far removed from his 2022-23 season (1.04 G/60, 2.42 Pts/60) in which he scored 24 goals and 56 points. Never a great skater, there is concern that if Perron has lost a step, it could exacerbate his weaknesses. NHL Edge data lists Perron in the bottom 50th percentile in top skating speed, speed bursts over 20 mph, and shot speed. To the player's credit, even if he has lost a step, Perron has created value by going to the dirty areas of the ice to create offence. Ottawa has historically relied on skill and rush chances to create offence in recent years, so they will welcome Perron's net front tenacity and his ability to win battles along the boards to sustain offensive zone time.

Josh Norris

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
56	23	17	40	0.71

One year removed from a shoulder injury limited Josh Norris to eight games during the 2022-23 season, this is not where anyone expected the centre's recovery to be. Norris reinjured that same left shoulder in a game against the Predators on February 27th, necessitating surgery and forcing him to miss the remainder of the season. There are few modern sports examples of players needing three surgical procedures on one shoulder in such a short span, but if there is a glimmer of hope, Vladimir Tarasenko offers it. Norris' former teammate endured three procedures of his own, and he eventually returned to playing at a decent level. Norris turned 25 this offseason, so there is hope his youth may assist in his recovery. With six years remaining on an eight-year contract extension carrying an AAV of $7.95 million, there is nothing else fans can do but hope he eventually resembles his pre-injury form when he scored 35 goals and 55 points in 2012-22. Although he has missed 106 games across the last two seasons, there have been moments of optimism when he has played. It was fair to expect some regression in his shooting percentage (17.7) that led to his big 35-goal 2021-22 campaign, but Norris' shot continued to be dangerous. In his last 58 games, he scored on almost 14 percent of his shots. The question facing the Senators is, when Norris does return, where should he play? Norris has proven to be a quality finisher, but his playmaking and puck-driving ability have not been strong. By playing the wing, he will have fewer defensive responsibilities and can be sheltered from taking faceoffs. His reintegration into the Senators' lineup will be one of the more intriguing storylines to follow in 2024-25.

Shane Pinto

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	25	31	56	0.68

It is safe to assume that the start of Shane Pinto's 2024-25 season will be less distracting than its predecessor. After salary cap complications and stalled contract negotiations between the Senators and Pinto's camp marred last year's offseason, the NHL levied a 41-game suspension - one of the largest suspensions in league history for his involvement in a gambling scandal. Once Pinto returned, he performed at a high level. In 41 games last season, Pinto registered nine goals and 27 points while averaging 18:07 of ice time. The centre's point rate grew from 1.60 points per 60 to 2.18 in 2023-24. A large driver in that growth was an improvement in his primary assist rate, which grew from 0.27 to 0.81. An important consideration to monitor will be Pinto's usage. Josh Norris' recovery from shoulder surgery could cause wrinkles throughout the top three lines. Provided everyone is healthy, a reasonable bet would be for Pinto to start the season anchoring the third line. In saying that, he was Brady Tkachuk's most common centre at five-on-five last season despite missing half the team's games. If Norris' recovery progresses slowly or he cannot return to his pre-injury form, Pinto will have an easy path to top six minutes. Should he continue to build upon last season's numbers when his individual expected goal rate (1.34 ixG/60) was the second highest on the team behind Brady Tkachuk, his play will warrant that opportunity on merit. And, in signing a two-year, $3.75 million AAV contract this summer, he will arrive in camp without any distraction.

Michael Amadio

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	13	14	27	0.35

Arguably the organization's most low-key addition this offseason was Michael Amadio. The versatile two-way forward returns to Ottawa, where he played five nondescript games with the Senators during the 2020-21 season. Since then, Amadio has solidified himself as an NHL regular after three seasons in Vegas. In 193 games in the desert, he compiled 41 goals and 72 points including 14 goals and 27 points in 73 games last season. He has demonstrated he can be an efficient scorer in this league. In parts of seven NHL seasons, Amadio has scored on 12.2 percent of his shots. According to Evolving-Hockey's 'wins above replacement' metric, Amadio compiled the fourth-highest value (1.5 WAR) in Vegas last season. He did so while spending most of his time playing on a line with William Karlsson. Amadio will likely not have the luxury of starting the year playing with a 30-goal scorer in Ottawa. There is a risk that his numbers could suffer away from Karlsson, but Amadio will be expected to bring positional flexibility, goal-scoring, and defensive aptitude to the bottom of the lineup. A glaring weakness of the Senators' roster building in recent years has been their willingness to bring in supporting players who offer offence or defence, but not both. The belief is that Amadio will be a more well-rounded fit than his predecessors.

Ridly Greig

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	15	15	30	0.39

If there was a positive to come out of Shane Pinto's half-season suspension last season, it was that it created the opportunity Ridly Greig needed to establish himself and develop at the NHL level. Greig began his campaign recording seven points in his first eight games, and it was only a short time before he garnered attention for his production, chippiness, and two-way play. Greig finished 15th in rookie scoring with 13 goals and 26 points, despite only contributing six points in his last 33 games. Greig was a Swiss Army knife, allowing his coaches to play him up and down the lineup on the wing or at centre. Greig played on nine different line combinations that played more than 30 minutes together. His most common linemates were Dominik Kubalik and Mathieu Joseph – but that trio played just 87 minutes together to poor results. The Senators generated only 44 percent of the shots (CF%) and expected goals (xGF%) while they were on the ice. In a smaller sample size, Greig thrived with Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux generating 69 percent of the shots (CF%) and 72 percent of the expected goals. A promising start and more continuity and better linemates should help his progression.

DEFENCE

Jake Sanderson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	12	39	51	0.63

Jake Sanderson did the unthinkable. For the first time since the 2017-18 season, someone other than Thomas Chabot led the Senators in average ice time per game (23:13). Fresh after signing an eight-year extension worth an AAV of $8.05 million, Sanderson experienced a breakout, recording 10 goals and 38 points - becoming the ninth defenceman in franchise history to record more than 10 goals and 35 points in a season. Despite those point totals, there is considerable room for growth. The loss of Jakob Chychrun should free up more power play ice time for Sanderson. He averaged only 0.75 points per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time. Among the seven defenders on the Senators who logged more than 10 games, only Travis Hamonic had a lower point rate than Sanderson. He could be due for a big season if he can improve that point rate. On the defensive side of the puck, the Senators do not have to worry about Sanderson. His pairing with Artem Zub gave the Senators a reliable defensive tandem to match against the opposition's most dangerous lines. Together, they logged 826 five-on-five minutes. When they were on the ice together, the Senators generated the majority of the goals (52.5 GF%), shots on goal (54.7 SF%), shots (53.7CF%), and expected goals (54.9 xGF%). The Sanderson-Zub pairing had the 10th-highest xGF% of all the defensive pairings in the league that logged more than 500 minutes. A considerable achievement given where the team finished in the standings.

Thomas Chabot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	10	32	42	0.60

Since being drafted in the first round of the 2015 NHL Draft, Thomas Chabot has played parts of eight seasons with the Senators. Never once has the defenceman reached the postseason. These years were spent logging big minutes on bad teams with even worse defensive partners, fuelling a belief that Chabot had developed poor defensive habits. The 2022-23 campaign was arguably the worst defensive season of his career, so there was a lot of pressure on Chabot to improve. Under Jacques Martin, his game improved considerably. The rate of shots (CA/60) and shots on goal (SA/60) that the Senators allowed while Chabot was on the ice were the lowest of his career. As much as the defence improved, Chabot had one of his least impactful offensive seasons, recording nine goals and 30 points in 51 games while mercifully being removed from the first power play unit and replaced by Jake Sanderson. His seven power play points matched a career-low and Chabot failed to be a viable threat from the blue line. One explanation for his offensive play is injury. He reportedly underwent surgery on his wrist to alleviate an issue that has been plaguing him for several seasons. Staying healthy will be a key to both his and the team’s success. The 27-year-old has missed 75 games across the last four years, including 31 games in 2023-24. Having a stable and reliable defensive partner should help too. Nick Jensen, an undervalued defensive defenceman, is expected to replace Jakob Chychrun as Chabot's partner. The Senators allowed 4.38 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five when Chychrun and Chabot were on the ice together. Replacing Chychrun with a natural right-shot defenceman who has historically put up solid defensive numbers since the 2016-17 season should help.

Nick Jensen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	2	14	16	0.21

Acquired with a third-round pick in a slightly polarizing trade that sent the 26-year-old Jakob Chychrun to the Washington Capitals, Nick Jensen joins the Senators to balance the handedness of the top two defensive pairings. The defensive defenceman has always been an analytics darling, but last season was his least impactful from an underlying numbers perspective. The Capitals only generated 44 percent of the shots (CF%) and expected goals (xGF%) when Jensen was on the ice. 2023-24 also represented Jensen's least impactful season regarding his surface numbers. In 78 games for the Capitals last season, Jensen had a lonely goal and 13 assists. The optimistic view is that Jensen is just one season removed from a productive season. Jensen's poor 2023-24 campaign could be partly explained by the Capitals' decline or the fact that Jensen never had a consistent playing partner following the Dmitry Orlov trade in 2023. He played more than 100 minutes with five different partners to poor results. The 33-year-old right-shot defenceman projects to begin his Senators career playing alongside Thomas Chabot. Chabot represents the most talented partner that Jensen will have had in his career, so it's a relatively soft landing spot for Jensen to prove his 2023-24 campaign was not part of a larger age-related decline.

Artem Zub

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	3	16	19	0.26

Since entering the league as an unheralded European veteran at the start of the 2020-21 season, Artem Zub has solidified his reputation as the Senators' best defensive defenceman. Together with Jake Sanderson, the Senators have assembled one of their best defensive shutdown pairings since the early 2000's. To put things into perspective, the Senators allowed an average 29.51 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time. When Sanderson and Zub were on the ice together, often playing against the opposition's best forwards, the Senators allowed 26.73 shots. Zub's offence was the most understated part of his 2023-24 season. He led Senators defencemen in five-on-five points per 60 (1.10). It more than doubled his 2022-23 rate (0.44). The only blemish on Zub's record is something out of his control. He has missed a half-season worth of games across the last two seasons. Without a ton of quality options available behind Jensen and Zub, any prolonged absence from the lineup will put the team in an unenviable position of having to give Jacob Bernard-Docker or Travis Hamonic top four minutes.

GOAL

Linus Ullmark

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
55	28	22	5	3	0.909	2.68

The Ottawa Senators and the Boston Bruins have never been considered one of the NHL’s premier rivalries. But come the start of the 2024 campaign, that may change - all thanks to one of the most inexplicable trades made by an NHL GM since the Toronto Maple Leafs gifted Boston a Vezina winner nearly twenty years ago. This time, it’s the Canadian franchise on the receiving end of a Vezina-caliber gift; thanks to a cap crunch in Boston, the Senators will start their upcoming season with elite-level starter Linus Ullmark between the pipes, likely for as many games as they can possibly squeeze out of him. Ullmark has been one of the NHL’s most reliable performers since arriving in Boston in 2021. He’s served as the slightly more veteran half of a formidable tandem with Jeremy Swayman, splitting the net almost perfectly down the middle in terms of workload and reaping the benefits of carefully constructed rest periods. Now, he’ll head to a floundering team stuck in the quagmire of a rebuild, dangerously close to becoming another Buffalo. The Senators keep getting close to taking the next step forward, but just can’t seem to put it all together.

That should make for an interesting situation with regards to how Ullmark will fare. He spent the first half of his NHL career skating out as a starter for none other than the Buffalo Sabres, and his numbers were admirable but incapable of carrying his team out of the basement. Now, he’s older and has considerably more experience taking reps behind a more structured defensive system - but he’s also started to develop a minor injury history and hasn’t had to deal with the kind of inconsistency that Ottawa’s defense can display a little too often for comfort. Getting back into the habit of having to rely on desperation saves over structure and system might take some adjustment for Ullmark, and it’s entirely possible that his numbers will suffer as a result. Hopefully, though, he’s the missing piece the Senators have needed - and he’ll be able to help give the team the necessary push back into the hunt for a Wild Card berth.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (February 26th to March 3rd) – Matthews at the center of Maple Leafs run – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sun, 25 Feb 2024 15:00:03 +0000

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 26: Toronto Maple Leafs Center Auston Matthews (34) chases the play during the regular season NHL game between the Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs on April 26, 2022 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.(Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

The Maple Leafs haven’t just won their last six games, they’ve outscored their competition an incredible 33-14 over that span. At the center of that run has been Auston Matthews, who’s provided 10 goals and 13 points over his past five contests. That gives him 52 goals and 76 points through 55 outings in 2023-24.

There was a time when Sam Reinhart was challenging Matthews for the goal-scoring lead, but Matthews’ edge in that battle has jumped to 13 goals. Not only did Matthews reach the 50-goal milestone before any other player hit 40, but there are still just 10 other skaters with at least 30 tallies this year.

Even after factoring in the Toronto game Matthews was unavailable for, the star forward is on pace for 76 markers. If he could actually do that, it would leave him in a four-way tie for fifth in the all-time single-season goal-scoring list. Along the way, he would also become the first player to reach the 70-goal mark since Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny in 1992-93.

Of course, his pace has been skewed by his recent hot streak, but part of what makes Matthews impressive is how consistent he is. Dating back to Dec. 2, Matthews hasn’t had a goal drought last longer than two games (Dec. 30-Jan. 2, Jan. 13-14), and he’s provided at least one marker in 12 of his last 15 appearances.

It'll be exciting to see what he can do over the final weeks of the campaign and his pursuit of the 70-goal milestone adds an interesting wrinkle to a Hart Trophy conversation that’s been largely dominated by Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon, who are leading the Art Trophy race with 95 points (36 goals) and 93 points (34), respectively.

Arizona Coyotes - TUE @ MTL, THU @ TOR, FRI @ OTT (BTB), SUN @ WSH

The Coyotes are on the road next week and are set to play in Montreal on Tuesday, Toronto on Thursday, Ottawa on Friday and Washington on Sunday. Although an extended road trip is far from ideal, three of those four adversaries are well outside a playoff spot.

Arizona has lost 11 straight games, so it shouldn’t be surprising to hear that there aren’t many Coyotes players who have looked great recently. That said, it’s worth keeping an eye on Dylan Guenther. With the team focused on the future, the 20-year-old is serving on the first line and top power-play unit, leading to him averaging 18:17 of ice time, including 4:39 with the man advantage, over his past four contests. He hasn’t been good, but not great so far, providing six goals and 11 points across 19 outings this season, but given his high-end offensive upside, and the choice minutes he’s been receiving, Guenther has the potential to finish the campaign on a high note.

At the other end of the spectrum, veteran forward Jason Zucker has seen his role fade, to the point where he’s logged just 10:47 per game over his last three appearances, compared to his season average of 14:06. Although the Coyotes are likely to shop him ahead of the deadline, his $5.3 million cap hit might scare off contenders, and even if he does get moved, his new team likely wouldn’t use him as more than a third liner. Zucker has had periods this campaign where he’s performed well enough to be worth utilizing in fantasy, but only managers in particularly deep leagues should be using him at this time.

On the goaltending front, Connor Ingram has been dealing with an undisclosed injury, but based on his original 7-10 day timetable from Feb. 14, he should be about ready to return. The 26-year-old goaltender has been one of the bright spots for Arizona this campaign with a 17-13-2 record, 2.76 GAA and .912 save percentage across 35 outings. He’d be worth starting in fantasy on any night next week except for Thursday versus Toronto.

Dallas Stars - MON VS NYI, TUE @ COL (BTB), THU VS WPG, SAT VS SJS

The Stars will play in Colorado on Tuesday, but outside of that, they’ll be at home, hosting matches against the Islanders on Monday, the Jets on Thursday and the Sharks on Saturday. It’s one of the tougher schedules I’m highlighting, but Stars players will at least get plenty of opportunities to make an impact next week with four games ahead of them.

This hasn’t been a great campaign for Jake Oettinger, who has a 20-10-4 record, 2.98 GAA and .902 save percentage through 35 contests and he’s been particularly rough recently, allowing 10 goals on 65 shots (.846 save percentage) over his past three games. Scott Wedgewood, who has a 13-6-4 record, 2.97 GAA and .899 save percentage in 13 outings, isn’t an ideal alternative, but perhaps the backup goaltender will get some additional work next week so Oettinger can rest and regroup. If nothing else, Wedgewood should start either Monday or Tuesday. If he gets the Avalanche assignment, then it would be best to avoid him, but the Islanders are in a three-way tie for 21st offensively with 2.93 goals per game, so that would be a favorable adversary for the backup goaltender.

Goaltending hasn’t been Dallas’ only problem. The Stars have also been held to just two goals over their last two contests. Joe Pavelski has done alright in that span, providing a goal and an assist. He went through a slump from Jan. 23-Feb. 19 in which he was limited to four assists across 10 games, but the veteran forward seems to be heating up again. Even at the age of 39, he’s one of Dallas’ top performers with 20 goals and 48 points in 58 appearances.

Jamie Benn has also managed to stand out during the Stars’ recent struggles, supplying an assist in each of his last three games. He has just nine goals and 33 points through 58 outings this season, which is a major step down from his 78-point 2022-23 campaign. However, he’s been playing alongside Pavelski at even strength and serves on the top power-play unit, so Benn is in a position to be productive down the stretch.

Edmonton Oilers - MON VS LAK, WED VS STL, SAT @ SEA, SUN @ PIT (BTB)

Edmonton will host the Kings and the Blues on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. After that, the Oilers will travel to Seattle on Saturday and Pittsburgh on Sunday. LA and St. Louis are having decent, but not amazing campaigns while Seattle and Pittsburgh are behind in the battle for a wild-card spot.

The good times for Stuart Skinner appear to be behind him. He’s posted a 2-2-1 record, 4.20 GAA and .863 save percentage over his past five games, making this his worst stretch since his early season struggles. While Skinner still might shake this off and get hot again, this might create an opening for Jack Campbell, who has been paying his dues with AHL Bakersfield, to get a fresh opportunity. The veteran netminder has a .919 save percentage over his last 12 AHL appearances, so he’s settled down and would be worth keeping a close eye on if Edmonton calls him up.

While goaltending is something of a question mark for the Oilers, their offense is as strong as ever. Connor McDavid has been leading the charge as usual, providing an unreal 14 assists over his last five games alone. Meanwhile, Corey Perry seems to be fitting in with the Oilers, supplying three goals and four points over his past four contests. He hasn’t seen much power-play ice time, but he has shared the ice with McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at even strength.

Perry should be a good pickup for as long as he’s seeing time on either of the top two lines, but you’ll want to continue to monitor that situation. Edmonton might still add another skilled forward before the March 8 deadline, and if they do, then Perry might shift to serving primarily on the third unit, which would significantly hurt his fantasy value.

Florida Panthers - TUE VS BUF, THU VS MTL, SAT @ DET

The Panthers are one of the rare teams I’m covering with just three scheduled games, but they’re well-positioned to win all three contests. They’ll host the Sabres and the Canadiens on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before heading to Detroit for a match on Saturday. Of those adversaries, the Red Wings are the only ones still with playoff aspirations.

Florida has won 10 of its last 12 games, but the Panthers were dealt a potentially massive blow Thursday when Gustav Forsling and Matthew Tkachuk were forced to exit the match due to undisclosed injuries. At the time of writing, it’s not clear how significant those injuries are, but those are two key players for the Panthers.

If Tkachuk, who has 20 goals and 65 points through 57 games, is forced to miss time then William Lockwood will likely draw into the lineup for the first time since Jan. 19 and play regularly. The 25-year-old would serve primarily on the fourth line, so he wouldn’t at all be directly replacing Tkachuk, but Lockwood is a good source of hits when he is in the lineup, so he’s worthy of note in very specific fantasy circumstances.

We might also see Evan Rodrigues shift into a top-six role and move up to the first power-play unit if Tkachuk is unavailable. That would be a meaningful boost for Rodrigues, who has eight goals and 33 points through 57 appearances in 2023-24.

Forsling has eight goals and 27 points in 56 contests this season, but he’s only used sparingly with the man advantage, so his absence wouldn’t meaningfully impact the Panthers in that regard. In terms of even-strength minutes, though, we might see Oliver Ekman-Larsson asked to do significantly more. Josh Mahura would also likely start playing regularly after spending Florida’s past two contests as a healthy scratch.

Minnesota Wild - TUE VS CAR, THU @ NSH, SAT @ STL, SUN VS SJS (BTB)

Minnesota will host the Hurricanes on Tuesday, and then the Wild will have a two-game road trip with games in Nashville on Thursday and St. Louis on Saturday. They’ll conclude the week with a home contest versus the Sharks. Carolina is a tough opponent, but the Predators and the Blues are middle-of-the-road squads while San Jose is near the bottom of the pack.

With a 26-24-6 record, the Wild are running out of time to prove to management that they shouldn’t be sellers at the deadline. If they’re able to convince the front office of that, it will be thanks in large part to the efforts of their top line.

Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy are three of the hottest forwards in the league. Kaprizov is on a six-game scoring streak in which he’s provided five goals and 14 points. Over the same span, Eriksson Ek has supplied seven goals and 13 points while Boldy has contributed four goals and 11 points. Minnesota has gone from 17-20-5 on Jan. 13 to 26-24-6 at the time of writing, which is a significant climb, but the Wild are still on the outside looking in on the wild-card race. The Wild have little margin for error, which might serve to further motivate that star trio.

If Minnesota does start selling, though, goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury will likely be among those moved. The 39-year-old is having a rough campaign with an 11-10-3 record, 2.96 GAA and .897 save percentage across 27 contests, but contenders will appreciate the added goaltending depth he can provide coupled with the wealth of playoff experience he brings to the table. It’s worth monitoring the situation because, with a strong team playing in front of him, Fleury might have some use down the stretch, although his playing time will likely be limited.

Should the Wild deal Fleury and write off this campaign, it will be interesting to see if they give Jesper Wallstedt another shot. He had a disastrous introduction to the NHL, allowing seven goals on 34 shots to Dallas on Jan. 10, but that’s obviously a small sample size and the 21-year-old is a highly regarded goaltending prospect, so it might be worth it to give him some starts down the stretch to provide him with more NHL experience. Alternatively, if the Wild believe his development is better served remaining with AHL Iowa, then veteran journeyman Zane McIntyre might finish the campaign with Minnesota. In that scenario, Filip Gustavsson would likely be leaned on massively down the stretch, as would McIntyre in Iowa.

New Jersey Devils - TUE @ SJS, FRI @ ARI, SUN @ LAK

The Devils will spend the week on the road, playing against the Sharks on Tuesday, the Coyotes on Friday and the Kings on Sunday. Although they’re playing in just three games, Anaheim and San Jose rank 30th and 31st, respectively, in the standings, which makes Devils players especially appealing next week.

Nico Daws has allowed 11 goals over his past two games, bringing him down to 6-8-0 with a 3.32 GAA and .895 save percentage through 14 appearances this season. Vitek Vanecek (lower body) might return soon, but he has a 17-9-3 record, 3.18 GAA and .890 save percentage in 32 contests, so he’s hardly an ideal alternative.

New Jersey will likely make a strong push to get a goaltender before the deadline. Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom seems like one possibility, provided he’s willing to waive his no-movement clause to facilitate a trade. If they get him or another netminder, then Daws will likely be sent to the minors while Vanecek, who is in the second season of his three-year, $10.2 million contract, would be relegated to the backup role.

At least the Devils have a strong forward corps. Tyler Toffoli isn’t the headliner of it, but he’s certainly a noteworthy component. The 31-year-old is on a four-game scoring streak (two goals, four points), which brings him up to 24 goals and 39 points in 55 contests this season. Jack Hughes is also dialled in with three goals and six points over his past six appearances.

Ottawa Senators - MON @ WSH, TUE @ NSH (BTB), FRI VS ARI, SAT @ PHI (BTB)

Ottawa will open the week with road contests versus the Capitals on Monday and the Predators on Tuesday. The Senators will then host the Coyotes on Friday before playing in Philadelphia on Saturday. None of those opponents is high-end, though Nashville still has playoff aspirations while Philadelphia is currently in a reasonably secure position in the battle for a postseason berth.

The Senators won’t make the playoffs, but that won’t be for lack of trying on the part of Claude Giroux. The 36-year-old forward is on a seven-game scoring streak in which he’s collected three goals and nine points. That gives him 18 goals and 51 points through 54 outings in 2023-24. Giroux’s three-year, $19.5 million contract runs through 2024-25, and he has a no-movement clause, so he’s unlikely to be traded before the deadline, but I can’t help but wonder if there’s any temptation there for him to reevaluate his plans. He’s never won a Cup, and Ottawa might not be able to provide him with a great shot at a serious playoff run before his contract is up.

Still, that’s a decision Giroux is more likely to make next season. Instead, Vladimir Tarasenko, who is playing through a one-year, $5 million deal, is far more likely to be moved in the coming weeks. It is worth noting that he has a full no-trade clause, so Tarasenko will have a lot of sway over where he goes. The 32-year-old winger has 15 goals and 37 points over 52 contests this season and would be a great middle-six forward for most contenders.

As Ottawa sells and looks toward the future, Ridly Greig might also start playing an expanded role. The 21-year-old has nine goals and 21 points in 44 outings while averaging 14:27 of ice time, including a modest 0:43 with the man advantage. In particular, that power-play time might expand down the stretch, which could aid Greig in finishing the campaign on a positive note.

Washington Capitals - MON VS OTT, TUE @ DET (BTB), FRI VS PHI, SUN VS ARI

The Capitals will spend most of the week at home, hosting Ottawa on Monday, Philadelphia on Friday and Arizona on Sunday. The Capitals will also have a brief excursion to Detroit for a contest Tuesday. The Senators and the Coyotes are set to be sellers at the deadline, making them the more vulnerable of the Capitals’ upcoming adversaries.

Alex Ovechkin was limited to just six goals and 20 points across his first 33 games in 2023-24, but that rough stretch is well behind him. First, he provided an impressive two goals and seven points through six games from Dec. 30-Jan. 11, then the 38-year-old truly caught fire starting on Jan. 24, contributing eight goals and 14 points over his past 10 appearances.

Ovechkin’s resurgence isn’t shocking -- he always seems to find a way to bounce back when people start writing him off -- but Connor McMichael’s recent success is eyebrow-raising. The 23-year-old has supplied four tallies over his last two games and five goals in his past four appearances. That brings him up to 12 goals and 22 points through 53 contests this campaign. It helps that he’s been playing in a somewhat expanded role recently, averaging 16:11 of ice time over his past eight contests compared to 15:07 prior to that point. Keep an eye on him because while McMichael has been somewhat slow to establish himself in the NHL, he does have serious potential.

It's not all good news for Washington, though. T.J. Oshie sustained a lower-body injury Thursday. If he ends up missing time, then Sonny Milano might serve in an expanded role. Milano has five goals and 10 points in 26 contests, including two points over three games since returning from his own injury.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 Fantasy Points – Stephenson, Faber, Tippett, Lyon, Luukkonen, Daws and much, much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 19 Jan 2024 17:08:47 +0000

PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 05: Philadelphia Flyers Right Wing Owen Tippett (74) skates with the puck during the third period of the National Hockey League game between the New York Islanders and the Philadelphia Flyers on October 5, 2023, at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia PA. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, injuries are creating opportunities for Chandler Stephenson and Brock Faber, Owen Tippett is firing pucks, the season of unpredictable goaltending has turned attention to Alex Lyon, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Nico Daws, and much, much more!

#1 With both Jack Eichel and William Karlsson injured and out of the Las Vegas lineup, there is more opportunity available down the middle of the ice. Chandler Stephenson is the prime beneficiary, skating on the top line and first power play unit. Stephenson has four points (1 G, 3 A) in three games since Eichel is out week-to-week following lower-body surgery, which does give Stephenson more value. Nicolas Roy has also moved up the depth chart and has recorded three assists in the past three games, averaging more than 18 minutes of ice time per game.

#2 Minnesota Wild rookie defenceman Brock Faber has enjoyed a fantastic first season and is going to have more heavy lifting to do on the Wild blueline. Captain and standout defender Jared Spurgeon is out for the rest of the season following hip and back surgeries. That leaves even more responsibility for Faber, who has 10 points (1 G, 9 A) and 35 shots on goal while averaging more than 25 minutes of ice time per game in 16 games over the past month.

#3 Philadelphia Flyers winger Owen Tippett scored a pair of goals in Thursday’s 5-1 win against the Dallas Stars, the fifth straight win for a surging Flyers squad. Tippett now has six goals and 31 shots on goal in his past six games and since the calendar turned to 2024, Tippett leads the NHL with 15.42 shots on goal per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. He has been skating on the Flyers’ top line with Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny and is getting first-unit power play time. With this kind of production, Tippett should remain in this prime spot in the Philadelphia lineup.

#4 During a season in which goaltending has been a consistent point of concern, it makes complete sense that one of the best goaltenders in the NHL this season has been Alex Lyon, a 31-year-old who had started 31 games in his career prior to this season. Lyon has started 15 games for the Red Wings this season and has a .923 save percentage. He saved the Florida Panthers’ season last year and Lyon is doing something similar for the Red Wings this season.

#5 At the start of the season, the Buffalo Sabres were giving rookie netminder Devon Levi every opportunity to run with the starting goaltender job. Levi has a .889 save percentage in 19 games and has lost the starting job to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, the 24-year-old who has recorded back-to-back shutouts and has a .956 save percentage in his past six starts. It’s not as though Luukkonen has established long-term trustworthiness, but if you’re looking for goaltending at this point in the season, you probably have to take some risks.

#6 New Jersey’s goaltending has been such a disaster that they demoted Akira Schmid to the AHL and recalled Nico Daws. While the 23-year-old netminder has a 3-3 record in six starts for the Devils, Daws also has a .916 save percentage which is a massive upgrade over the work of Schmid and Vitek Vanecek this season.

#7 With Winnipeg Jets centre Mark Scheifele banged up, Adam Lowry has moved up the depth chart to play on the first line between Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi. Lowry has six points (1 G, 5 A) and 11 shots on goal in his past five games, the last two of which have been without Scheifele. Lowry tallied a career-high 36 points (13 G, 23 A) last season and with 23 points (8 G, 15 A) in 43 games this season, he is on pace to surpass that total.

#8 Los Angeles Kings centre Philip Danault was held without a point in Thursday’s 2-1 loss to Nashville, snapping a six-game point streak during which he had recorded eight points (2 G, 6 A). Danault is skating between Trevor Moore and Kevin Fiala, which is an upgrade in his typical offensive situation. Danault and Moore have played together a lot and Moore is enjoying the best season of his career, but Fiala is a proven point producer who has 110 points (33 G, 77 A) in 111 games with the Kings.

#9 Florida Panthers centre Sam Bennett is starting to heat up, perhaps not surprisingly as his right winger, Matthew Tkachuk, has emerged from his relatively slow start to the season. Since December 30, Bennett has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 24 shots on goal in nine games. Playing with Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe is a prime spot for Bennett to be a productive force, at least when he is healthy.

#10 Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin has entered the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, a potentially crushing blow for the Avalanche. Nichushkin was averaging 21:49 of ice time per game, which ranks fourth among forwards behind Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, and Nikita Kucherov. In his last month of action, Nichushkin played 15 games and put up 21 points (12 G, 9 A) with 58 shots on goal. His absence is going to leave a giant hole in the Avalanche lineup. Hard working Avs right winger Logan O’Connor is doing his part to increase his offensive output and has contributed eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past nine games.

#11 Detroit Red Wings right winger Patrick Kane suffered a lower-body injury and will be out of the lineup. The Red Wings insist that it is not a hip injury, which would obviously raise concerns after he had his surgery in the offseason. After a bit of a slow start with Detroit, Kane has 14 points (6 G, 8 A) and 43 shots on goal in his past 13 games. If you’re looking for a veteran Red Wings winger, consider David Perron, who has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 16 shots on goal in his past eight games.

#12 Ottawa Senators rookie centre Ridly Greig is picking up the scoring pace, making the most of the opportunity afforded to him by Josh Norris’ injury, producing six points (2 G, 4 A) with 12 shots on goal in his past five games. Greig has been bumped up the depth chart to skate between Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux on the Senators’ top line and while it might be ambitious to expect Greig to handle that responsibility already, he is probably the best option for now. Remember, suspended centre Shane Pinto is eligible to return to Ottawa’s lineup this weekend and that will give Ottawa more choices down the middle of the ice.

#13 Anaheim Ducks rookie defenceman Pavel Mintyukov is out with a separated shoulder and it has created an opportunity for another Ducks rookie blueliner. Jackson LaCombe is getting a taste of first unit power play action for Anaheim and has three assists in his past five games after recording four assists in the previous 35 games. It’s too soon to start recommending LaCombe but, for dynasty leagues, this does offer a chance to LaCombe to prove that he can contribute more offensively, so that bears watching. Mintyukov has had a stellar start to his career, with 19 points (2 G, 17 A), including seven on the power play, in 40 games. In a Ducks organization that is well stocked with young defencemen, Mintyukov may be the prize of the bunch.

#14 In his first 18 games this season, Pittsburgh Penguins winger Rickard Rakell managed zero goals and four assists, a ridiculously low level of production for a skilled player who has endured some lengthy slumps in his career. He has snapped out of it, though, and now has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) and 33 shots on goal in his past 12 games. He is playing with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel, which is a good place for ensuring future production.

#15 One of the biggest surprises in the NHL this season has been the performance of Calgary Flames winger Blake Coleman, who has 38 points (20 G, 18 A), tying his career high in points that he established last season. He is scoring on 18.9 percent of his shots, after never scoring on even 12 percent in any of his previous seasons, but the 32-year-old is offering fantasy value when he is producing at this level.

#16 Looking at forwards who might be due for some better shooting luck for the rest of the season, Alex Ovechkin might be the leading candidate. The Capitals superstar has two goals on 81 shots during five-on-five play and while everyone is aware of Ovi’s office on the power play, it is stunning that he has just two five-on-five goals more than halfway through a season. While in recent seasons it has seemed inevitable that Ovechkin would catch Wayne Gretzky for the all-time goal-scoring record, the 38-year-old sniper will have to recover his even-strength production to have a chance. For fantasy managers, Ovechkin does represent a potential buy-low opportunity because. His productivity is so far below his reputation, but if his shooting percentage bounces back, he still gets enough shots to make an impact, even if his 3.55 shots on goal per game is a career-low rate for him.

#17 Along the same reasoning, consider Columbus’ Johnny Gaudreau as a possible buy-low value play. Gaudreau has 28 points (7 G, 21 A) in 44 games and, during five-on-five play, has scored three goals on 65 shots. That is an unsustainable rate, but it is made even worse by the fact that Gaudreau is averaging 2.05 shots on goal per game. He has picked up three assists with nine shots on goal in his past two games, so that could be the start of something more promising. Gaudreau has never had less than 0.80 points per game in a full season and is sitting at 0.64 points per game now.

#18 When it comes to players that could be due for some improved fortune around assists, check out some of the players with lower on-ice shooting percentages during five-on-five play. Some are fourth-line players who play with other fourth-line players and those low on-ice percentages are consistent from year to year. A skilled forward with a low on-ice shooting percentage has more reasonable expectations for regression to work in their favour. Ducks rookie centre Leo Carlsson has an on-ice shooting percentage of 4.6 percent, which should be due for improvement as he continues to get more comfortable in the league. Injured Ducks centre Trevor Zegras has a 5.3 percent on-ice shooting percentage. Capitals right winger Tom Wilson is at 5.2 percent, Seattle’s Matty Beniers is at 5.6 percent, and New Jersey’s Timo Meier is at 6.6 percent. Meier has three even strength assists in 29 games, which is obviously too low to be a sustainable rate.

#19 Looking at the other end of the spectrum feeling like raining on someone’s parade, announcing the unsustainability of their current level of production. Senators rookie Ridly Greig, who has been bumped up the depth chart, also has a five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of 15.7 percent. That can’t last. Vancouver’s success this season has been driven in part by high percentages, as Elias Pettersson (15.3), J.T. Miller (15.0), and Brock Boeser (14.2) have percentages among the highest in the league. Matt Duchene (13.5), Gabriel Vilardi (13.3), and Casey Mittelstadt (12.8) are among the forwards that have had their production elevated by favourable on-ice percentages and are probably due for some regression.

#20 The leaders in five-on-five individual expected goal per 60 minutes this month have been: Yanni Gourde (1.61), Jake Guentzel (1.48), Lawson Crouse (1.48), Gabriel Vilardi (1.46), Evander Kane (1.45), and Ridly Greig (1.41), so those are players who are at least generating high quality chances. Whether they can continue to do that over the long term will affect their true value for the rest of the season. At the other end, Ryan Johansen (0.15) is not getting chances in January. Mika Zibanejad (0.26), Mats Zuccarello (0.29), Evgeny Kuznetsov (0.31), Jonathan Huberdeau (0.31), and Adrian Kempe (0.34) are among the more notable forwards that are not generating scoring chances at five-on-five.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Karlsson continues to shine in Vegas – Vatrano raising his game in Anaheim – Byfield picking up the pace in LA, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 03 Nov 2023 13:42:42 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Los Angeles Kings Quinton Byfield (55) l(Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make better fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Willam Karlsson continues to shine in Vegas, Frank Vatrano is raising his game in Anaheim, Quinton Byfield is picking up the pace in Los Angeles, and much more!

#1 William Karlsson was a standout on Vegas’ run to the Stanley Cup last season, scoring 11 goals in 22 playoff games, and he has continued to play at a high level early in the 2023-2024 season, putting up 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in his past 10 games. Karlsson does so much of his damage at even strength, with 10 of his 13 points this season coming at evens, and his most common linemates have been rookie winger Pavel Dorofeyev and Michael Amadio, so Karlsson is the one driving those results.

#2 Anaheim Ducks winger Frank Vatrano delivered 22 goals and a career-high 41 points last season, his first in Southern California, but has stepped into a bigger role this season. Vatrano’s ice time is up nearly two minutes per game compared to last season and he has scored nine goals while launching 35 shots on goal in 10 games. Vatrano has always been a quality shot generator, but often in a limited role. Now that he is playing more than 18 minutes per game, his per-game shot rate is soaring.

#3 Progress has been gradual for Quinton Byfield, the Kings winger who was the second overall pick in the 2020 Draft who had a modest career high of 22 points (3 G, 19 A) in 53 games last season. Byfield has suddenly picked up six points (1 G, 5 A) in his past five games and with a continued role on the Kings’ top line, alongside Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, Byfield is getting the opportunity to develop his offensive game.

#4 Coming into the season, there were relatively high expectations for Pavel Zacha, the Boston Bruins centre who appeared to be due for a bigger role with Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retiring. He had just one assist in five games but has rebounded from that slow start, contributing six points (4 G, 2 A) with 14 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. David Pastrnak has been Zacha’s most common linemate, and that is obviously a good sign, but Zacha has also shifted to left wing, with rookie Matthew Poitras getting a look on Boston’s top line.

#5 Buffalo Sabres defenceman Owen Power, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 Draft, is starting to find his range offensively, riding a four-game point streak, during which he has produced four points (1 G, 3 A) and seven shots on goal. Power’s upside for fantasy managers runs into a ceiling because Rasmus Dahlin is the quarterback on Buffalo’s top power play unit and that doesn’t figure to change anytime soon, but Power has the offensive skills to be productive even as the No. 2 option on the Buffalo blueline.

#6 Veteran New York Islanders winger Kyle Palmieri has been a serviceable secondary scorer since he was acquired from the New Jersey Devils, but has taken on a bigger role this season, tallying eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his first nine games. He is skating with Pierre Engvall and Brock Nelson on the Islanders’ second line, but Palmieri does get first unit power play time, so there is an opportunity for him to hit 40 points for the first time since 2019-2020.

#7 Following a standout rookie season in which he tallied 24 goals, Dallas Stars centre Wyatt Johnston has continued his upward trajectory. In his past six games, Johnston has produced six points (3 G, 3 A) with a dozen shots on goal as Johnston maintains his familiar spot between Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov.

#8 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand got off to such a slow start last season, managing 14 points (3 G, 11 A) in his first 31 games and while his production got better, he was really chasing after such a poor start. The good news for Bjorkstrand and the Kraken is that it does not appear to be happening this season. With his goal Thursday night against Nashville, Bjorkstrand has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. After recording 10 power play points last season, Bjorkstrand already has four power play points this season.

#9 After missing all of last season while he recovered from neck and triceps injuries, Flyers right winger Cam Atkinson has already shown that he has not forgotten how to finish. In his past seven games, Atkinson has tallied eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 21 shots on goal. Getting that kind of production from a 34-year-old who just missed an entire season certainly helps lift the Flyers to a more competitive place and he has moved to play alongside Sean Couturier, the veteran centre who also missed all of last season. While the playoffs might still be a longshot, having Atkinson and Couturier healthy does change that calculation somewhat.

#10 Seattle Kraken left winger Jaden Schwartz has had an interesting career, with quality production mixed in with some injury-plagued seasons. He is off to a fine start this year, and has put up seven points (2 G, 5 A) with 19 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. Schwartz is skating on a line with Alexander Wennberg and Jordan Eberle, but has been a power play threat, with four of his nine points this season coming with the man advantage.

#11 New York Rangers star defenseman Adam Fox suffered an apparent leg injury Thursday after a leg-on-leg hit from Carolina Hurricanes centre Sebastian Aho. A Fox injury would leave a large hole on the Rangers blueline. He has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in 10 games this season and has finished in the top five in Norris Trophy voting in each of the past three seasons, winning in 2020-2021. If Fox is going to be out of the lineup, Erik Gustafsson would be a logical replacement as the power play quarterback but K’Andre Miller might also be an option for more power play time, too.

#12 For managers in deep or banger leagues, Arizona Coyotes centre Jack McBain is producing enough to generate interest. In his second season, McBain has six points (4 G, 2 A) in the past five games, but that is also not likely to be sustainable since he is a fourth liner playing about 12 minutes per game. Nevertheless, McBain’s fantasy appeal is tied to his physical play as he had 304 hits last season and has 28 hits through 10 games this season. If he gets his offensive production to even passable levels, there is a path to fantasy value.

#13 It appears that the Winnipeg Jets have found something in their physical third line of Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry, and Mason Appleton. Appleton has five points (2 G, 3 A) in the past five games and the trio has controlled 62.7% of five-on-five shot attempts and 60.3% of expected goals this season. There may be an offensive ceiling for these players but dominating five-on-five play to this degree at least indicates that they will be getting scoring chances.

#14 There are a couple of rookie defencemen forcing their way into the fantasy conversation. New Jersey’s Luke Hughes has six assists and 12 shots on goal in the past four games, and four of those assists have come on the power play as Hughes is getting a look on the Devils’ top power play unit, with Dougie Hamilton sliding to the second unit. Across the country, in Anaheim, Ducks defenceman Pavel Mintyukov has five assists in the past five games and while he is getting a chance on the Ducks’ No. 1 power play unit, Mintyukov has just one power play point this season.

#15 The Philadelphia Flyers lost goaltender Carter Hart to a “mid-body” injury this week and it seems that they will be without him for a while. Samuel Ersson is next in line and the Flyers have recalled Cal Petersen from the American Hockey League, but none of this precludes Felix Sandstrom from potentially seeing action in the Flyers net as well. Ersson has had an incredibly poor start to the season, allowing 14 goals on 59 shots (a .763 save percentage!), while Petersen has a .884 save percentage in four AHL games this season. Although the goaltending could be a major question mark, the Flyers deserve credit for playing a stronger team game this season as they have earned 54.8% of score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals during five-on-five play, which puts them in the top ten in that category.

#16 Ottawa Senators rookie centre Ridly Greig was hurt early in Thursday’s defeat against the Los Angeles Kings and that is going to test the Senators for the time that Greig is out. With Shane Pinto suspended, Greig was an important part of the lineup, contributing seven points (2 G, 5 A) in eight games prior to Thursday as Ottawa’s third line centre. As a short-term fix, Rourke Chartier could move up the depth chart, but the journeyman pivot has two points (1 G, 1 A) in 28 career games, so he may not be a viable answer if Greig is going to miss significant time.

#17 Alexander Barabanov is out 4-6 weeks with a broken finger and that creates an opening on San Jose’s top line alongside Tomas Hertl and Anthony Duclair. San Jose is hardly the source for great fantasy production, as the Sharks are getting buried on a nightly basis, but in deep leagues keep tabs on Fabian Zetterlund, who is getting that chance and is averaging nearly 16 minutes per game over the past five.

#18 While it was understood that veteran right winger Blake Wheeler had seen his better days, the 37-year-old still had 55 points (16 G, 39 A) in 72 games for the Winnipeg Jets last season. He has started a new phase with the New York Rangers in the worst way, going without a point in his first 10 games, and he is playing just 12 minutes per game, his lowest time on ice average of his career. Without a role on the Blueshirts’ power play, Wheeler is going to be hard-pressed to get his production back to fantasy relevant levels unless there is a dramatic shift in the situation.

#19 After a strong finish to last season, when he was between Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz on Arizona’s top line, Barrett Hayton was in a good spot to continue his career ascent. He is still centering that top line, and getting power play time, but has yet to record a point through 10 games this season. Hayton has 25 shots on goal and is playing a career-high 19:31 per game, so he might be a decent buy-low candidate, but his value has taken an unexpected hit due to his lack of production.

#20 Ongoing health issues have forced Washington Capitals centre Nicklas Backstrom to step away from the game and while his announcement did not have a final decision, it appears that the 35-year-old could be headed for retirement. An elite player from 2007-2008 through 2020-2021, Backstrom has been hampered by hip issues and it has been a tough road coming back. Since returning last season, Backstrom has 22 points (7 G, 15 A) in 47 games and the Capitals have been outscored 31-16 with him on the ice during five-on-five play. He just isn’t the same player who was nearly a point-per-game scorer in his first 1,000 games in the league and, at his peak, was in the Selke Trophy discussion. With Backstrom out, that does provide more opportunity for Dylan Strome, whose ice time has been climbing and has six goals in his past six games.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Oilers missing McDavid – Woll pushing for playing time – McTavish and Sandheim stepping up – Plus much, much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 27 Oct 2023 15:39:45 +0000

DALLAS, TX - OCTOBER 26: Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Joseph Woll (60) blocks a shot during the game between the Dallas Stars and the Toronto Maple Leafs on October 26, 2023 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the Oilers are reeling and are now missing McDavid. Shane Pinto’s suspension, Joseph Woll pushing for playing time, Mason McTavish ready to make the leap in his second season, Travis Sanheim stepping up for the Flyers and more.

#1 The season could not have started much worse for the Edmonton Oilers, preseason Stanley Cup favourites who have a 1-5-1 record and are missing superstar centre Connor McDavid for 1-2 weeks due to an upper-body injury. McDavid had eight points (2 G, 6 A) in five games before getting hurt and the Oilers have had to juggle lines, moving Ryan Nugent-Hopkins into the second line centre spot while Leon Draisaitl fills in for McDavid as the first line centre. The Oilers have been outscored 10-4 in two losses without McDavid and will hope to get on the right track with the season’s first installment of the Battle of Alberta, the Heritage Classic outdoor game, which goes Sunday in Edmonton.

#2 Ottawa Senators centre Shane Pinto, still without a contract as a restricted free agent, was suspended for 41 games due to activities related to sports betting. That would appear to solidify Ridly Greig’s position as the third-line centre behind Tim Stutzle and Josh Norris. Greig, who is eligible for the Calder Trophy, has five points (1 G, 4 A) with 16 shots on goal in seven games. Another player whose future in Ottawa should be more secure is winger Mathieu Joseph, who had been rumoured to be on the trade block at times – ostensibly in order to clear cap space to sign Pinto – but Joseph has started the season with six points (3 G, 3 A) and 13 shots on goal in seven games.

#3 It has not taken long, but Toronto Maple Leafs rookie Joseph Woll is challenging Ilya Samsonov for time in Toronto’s crease. Woll, the 25-year-old netminder, has a .961 save percentage in four appearances and that will get anyone a longer look in net, but with Samsonov delivering a meagre .831 save percentage, it is an easy choice for the Maple Leafs to give Woll more opportunities. Samsonov played well for Toronto last season, but the unpredictable nature of the position means that, unless a team has a surefire No. 1, the job should be up for grabs so that the goaltender that is playing best can earn more playing time.

#4 Second-year Anaheim Ducks centre Mason McTavish scored in overtime Thursday to cap Anaheim’s surprising late comeback win in Boston, handing the Bruins their first loss of the season. The 20-year-old now has six points (3 G, 3 A) with 16 shots on goal in seven games and with the Ducks playing more competitively than might have been anticipated, it’s all the more reason to expect McTavish to obliterate his rookie season production of 43 points (17 G, 26 A).

#5 While there has been plenty of early season fanfare for Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat in Detroit – and deservedly so as they rank second and third, respectively, in the league scoring race – the third member of Detroit’s top line, Lucas Raymond, should not be overlooked. The third-year winger has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 18 shots on goal in eight games, and if he’s riding shotgun with Larkin and DeBrincat, that is an opportunity for Raymond to continue producing at a high level.

#6 Entering the season, there appeared to be plenty of holes in the Philadelphia Flyers lineup, not the least of which was a defencemen that would be able to contribute offensively. The early answer to that question is apparently Travis Sanheim, who had a career-high 35 points (9 G, 26 A) in 82 games in 2018-2019, but has busted out of the gate to start the season, producing eight points (1 G, 7 A) and 16 shots on goal in seven games. He is quarterbacking Philadelphia’s first power play unit and that should be enough reason to believe that the 27-year-old at least has a shot at the most productive offensive season of his career.

#7 The Colorado Avalanche took a chance on centre Ryan Johansen, acquiring him from the Nashville Predators in the offseason, and the early returns have been positive. Johansen has five points (4 G, 1 A) in seven games, but what is notable is that he also has 17 shots on goal. That rate of 2.43 shots on goal per game would be Johansen’s highest per-game rate since the 2014-2015 season. He has shown little interest in shooting the puck in recent seasons but if the Avalanche can change that approach, then the veteran pivot becomes a lot more interesting because he has the talent to score. Johansen has three seasons in his career with at least 25 goals, though only one since 2014-2015.

#8 Although he does not seem to be an ideal fit as a first line centre for the Minnesota Wild, Ryan Hartman does have seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 18 shots on goal in the first seven games of the season. Hartman had a career-high 65 points (34 G, 31 A) during the 2021-2022 season but that was the only season of his career in which he scored more than 40 points, so expectations for his production tend to be low enough that he could exceed them. The opportunity to play with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello can drag many players into fantasy relevance.

#9 Veteran centre Sean Monahan has been a valuable contributor for the Montreal Canadiens early in the season. After groin surgery ended his 2022-2023 season prematurely, the 29-year-old was facing an uncertain future. He re-signed in Montreal and has been excellent early in the season, producing six points (3 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal in seven games. For a relatively young Canadiens team, having Monahan’s experience and production helps to insulate their emerging players.

#10 When Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy required back surgery, the immediate question was how would the Lightning address this issue so that they did not have to ride with Jonas Johansson as their starting netminder for more than two months. The Lightning have not brought in a proven NHL goaltender, instead giving Johansson the opportunity and he has a .925 save percentage in seven starts. Given his mediocre track record, seven games are not nearly enough time to declare that Johansson is now an elite goaltender, but he offers potential for fantasy managers as what looks like a secure No. 1 goaltender until the Lightning make a move.

#11 Los Angeles Kings left winger Trevor Moore has found a comfortable home on Phillip Danault’s wing and Moore has opened this season with six points, including five goals, in his first six games. Moore has 16 shots on goal and that has been one of his strengths since arriving in Los Angeles – he uses his speed to consistently generate shots – and while he is obviously not going to keep scoring on 31% of his shots, Moore could certainly surpass his career high of 17 goals, set in 2021-2022.

#12 While the Boston Bruins might have had modest expectations for 34-year-old left winger James van Riemsdyk coming into the season, he has contributed five points (3 G, 2 A) with 16 shots on goal in seven games, with three of those points coming with the man advantage. Even if he is not terribly fleet afoot at this stage of his career, JvR has always had excellent hands around the net, and he still makes sense as a net-front presence for Boston.

#13 It appeared that the Edmonton Oilers secured outstanding value when they signed right winger Connor Brown coming off a season in which he was limited to just four games before tearing his ACL. Brown had established his credentials as a winger who could play in all situations before that and had played with Connor McDavid in junior hockey, so this was a great chance for Brown to re-establish his value, but that has not been the case thus far. Through seven games, Brown has failed to record a point and has just eight shots on goal. He has fallen to the third line on the Edmonton depth chart and, according to Cap Friendly, is due a performance bonus of $3,225,000 after he plays in 10 games. Would the Oilers abandon Brown this quickly in order to save the cap space?

#14 Seattle Kraken sophomore centre Matty Beniers is off to a tough start to the campaign. The 2022-2023 Calder Trophy winner, Beniers has yet to score a goal and has three assists and 13 shots on goal in the first eight games of the season. Shot generation has not been a Beniers strength to this point in his NHL career, but he has to be able to produce more. Right now, he has rookie Tye Kartye and veteran Jordan Eberle on his wings, which is not exactly driving the Kraken attack, but Beniers is capable of more and probably counts as a buy-low candidate for fantasy managers.

#15 In the second half of last season, New Jersey Devils winger Dawson Mercer erupted for 20 points (11 G, 9 A) during a 12-game span, on his way to a 27-goal season. He has been out of sorts this season, however, still looking for his first point after six games. Even more troubling is that Mercer has been held without a shot on goal in four straight games. He has been buried in shifts when he has been skating with rookie Alexander Holtz, with the duo managing a 34.5% Corsi in the 28 minutes of five-on-five play that they have been together.

#16 The Arizona Coyotes made several moves to bolster their forward talent in the offseason and one of the results of those acquisitions has been that Lawson Crouse’s role has been decreased. Coming off back-to-back seasons with 20 or more goals, Crouse had fantasy value because of his high hit totals to accompany his goal-scoring numbers. His ice time is down 2:42 per game from last season and Crouse has managed just one assist and eight shots on goal in six games.

#17 The Calgary Flames have staggered out of the starting blocks this season and centre Nazem Kadri is one Flames skater who could produce a lot more than he has to this point in the season. In eight games, Kadri has one assist and 23 shots on goal. Flames head coach Ryan Huska tried to shake things up by moving Kadri to right wing on the top line, with Jonathan Huberdeau and Elias Lindholm, but that has not snapped Kadri from his early-season funk.

#18 Chicago Blackhawks left winger Taylor Hall has landed on the injured list, forcing another change on the wing for rookie centre Connor Bedard. With Tyler Johnson on right wing, the Blackhawks have Nick Foligno stepping into Hall’s spot. With all due respect to Foligno, this is not an ideal situation for Bedard, who could use more offensively gifted linemates If he is going to maximize his production. Through seven games, Bedard has four points (2 G, 2 A) and 22 shots on goal.

#19 Columbus Blue Jackets centre – yes, centre – Patrik Laine suffered an injury when Calgary Flames defenseman Rasmus Andersson unloaded on him with a high hit late in a Flames loss to Columbus. Laine has not returned to action yet, missing three games since the incident. Boone Jenner and Jack Roslovic have joined Johnny Gaudreau on Columbus’ top line in Laine’s absence. Andersson was suspended for four games and MacKenzie Weegar has moved into the quarterback role on Calgary’s first unit power play.

#20 The Buffalo Sabres entered the season with hopes the rookie goaltender Devon Levi would be the one to carry the starter’s load between the pipes. Levi had a mediocre .892 save percentage in the first four games of the season before a nagging lower-body injury sidelined him. That has allowed Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to see some action. As noted earlier, riding the hot hand in net is becoming a way of life for NHL teams and it has helped the Sabres pick up a couple of wins.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – OTTAWA SENATORS – Top 20 Prospect Profiles – Organizational Rank #20

Brock Otten, Derek Neumeier, Chapin Landvogt and Josh Bell — Sun, 08 Oct 2023 14:04:24 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - FEBRUARY 11: Ottawa Senators Center Ridly Greig (17) before a face-off during second period National Hockey League action between the Edmonton Oilers and Ottawa Senators on February 11, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

Top 20 Ottawa Senators Prospects

1. Ridly Greig

Greig’s path has continued to climb upwards since he started in the WHL and that trajectory is a big reason why he’s going to be a graduate from this list in short order. The forward wrapped up a strong WHL career in 2021-22 as the captain of the Brandon Wheat Kings, putting up 63 points in only 39 games, while also helping Canada to a gold medal at the World Juniors. He’s practically the epitome of the “Pesky Sens'' as a hard-fought, gritty player who is absolutely fearless, while playing a highly competitive brand of hockey. At the same time, he brings an impressive shot, and hands that look softer and softer every time he hits the ice. Greig is already playing in the NHL after starting last season with a strong showing in the AHL and it seems that he’ll there stick as a middle-six asset and fan favorite.

2. Zach Ostapchuk

A bit of a surprising selection by the Senators when they called his name 39th overall in the 2021 NHL Draft, Ostapchuk has spent the last two seasons proving doubters wrong. On top of two World Juniors appearances where he won two gold medals, his WHL career has taken off. In 2021-22, he was named captain of the Vancouver Giants and showed that he’s a big-game player, taking his game to another level in the playoffs, where he contributed nearly two points-per-game. With over a point per game last season, he looks too good for the WHL now and is ready to take the next step. Ostapchuk is hard on the puck, brings a physical edge, and plays a solid two-way, slightly defensive-leaning game. He also has great speed and is capable of generating great plays. His game looks like it will translate very well as a bottom nine winger.

3. Mads Sogaard

Standing at a hulking 6-7”, Sogaard doesn’t need to do much in the net to stop the puck. Drafted 37th overall in 2019, the Danish goaltender made the interesting jump from the NAHL to the WHL’s Medicine Hat Tigers, where he had a very good rookie season. He spent one more season in the WHL, performing well, before the pandemic hit. He started the 2020-21 season in Denmark and played very well, before jumping to the AHL at the end of the year. He spent more of 2021-22 in the AHL getting used to the pace and he split his time fairly evenly between the AHL and NHL last season. He moves well but can let through a bad goal a little more often than one would like. His path to the NHL may have been a little faster than anticipated as Sogaard is still pretty raw, but it looks like he’s now in the NHL to stay.

4. Egor Sokolov

Another prospect that fits the mould of a Senator, Sokolov made the jump from Russia to the QMJHL in 2017-18, his draft year. He had a solid rookie year but was ultimately passed over in the NHL Draft. He took a step forward with the Cape Breton Eagles the following year but was once again passed over. In his final year of draft eligibility, his game took a big leap in the right direction , with 92 points in 52 games, and the Senators took notice, calling his name 61st overall. He immediately made the jump to the AHL, emerging as one of the Belleville Senators' top players ever since. At 6- 3”, 223 pounds, he’s a big body who is so hard to knock off the puck, he knows how to get to the dangerous areas, and has a great shot. Sokolov’s skating is a little slow and rough, but he has the tools to slide in as a bottom six forward.

5. Lassi Thomson

Drafted 19th overall in 2019, it hasn’t seemed to come together for Thomson and that has to be a concern moving forward, with reasonable doubts not that he ever will live up to expectations. Making the jump from Finland to the WHL in his draft year, Thomson slid in seamlessly with the Kelowna Rockets, putting up good numbers and looking comfortable in doing so. After the draft, he headed back to Finland to play in the Liiga, looking ready to take a step forward in the first season before struggling in the second. He moved back to North America in 2020-21, and has mainly stuck in the AHL ever since. His game is more defensive leaning at this point, bringing physicality and good timing, but his processing with the puck is a real issue. He has the tools, but just hasn’t been able to put it all together and may have hit his ceiling as a call-up option.

6. Tyler Kleven

Kleven won’t be a blueliner who piles up the points, but he could very well become a consistent, top six defender. Drafted 44th overall in 2020, Kleven had just wrapped up his time with the USNTDP and was poised to make the jump to the University of North Dakota. After three seasons on campus, he signed his entry-level deal last year, and made the jump straight to the NHL. He is a big, defence-first prospect with a heavy shot and no qualms about playing a physical game. He’s a little slow and you don’t want him to hold on to the puck for too long, but his ability to play hard and break up plays should allow him sticking in the league. The hope would be that he can figure out his on-puck play while standing out in his off-puck performance.

7. Leevi Merilainen

Ever since the Senators called Merilainen’s name 71st overall in the 2020 Draft, there has been excitement around him from the Senators fanbase. He was drafted out of Karpat out of the U20 SM-sarja where he had very strong numbers and that continued into his DY+1 season. He then made the jump to the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs for a an up-and-down season, with a good record but not-so-great underlying numbers and was overall just a little inconsistent. He went back to Finland last season to play in the Liiga where he looked better - enough to earn a call back to North America to spend more time with the B-Sens and Senators. Merilainen is a very agile, athletic goaltender, but he’s not consistent enough to be considered a future No. 1. If he can figure it out, he could be a reliable No. 2 or 3.

8. Tyler Boucher

Speaking of players who surprised the industry by when they were drafted by the Senators, Ottawa called Boucher’s name 10th overall in 2021, one of the biggest first round draft shocks of the last decade. Ottawa has made some good calls recently though, so perhaps they knew something no one else did. The USNTDP forward then jumped to Boston University where he was unable to put things together before jumping to the OHL Ottawa 67’s. He’s a bit of a complicated prospect in that his physicality is what could carry him to the NHL, but his development has been repeatedly marred by injuries over the past few years, questioning his durability, especially considering his power forward role. Boucher has a great, hard shot, but there are concerns with the rest of his game. At this point, he projects as a bottom six winger - maybe. It’s not likely he lives up to the weight of lofty draft standing.

9. Stephen Halliday

The Senators are no stranger to selecting double-overage players in the Draft. First eligible in 2020, Halliday did not hear his name called until two years later, 104th overall in 2022. Spending the three years prior with the USHL Dubuque Fighting Saints, Halliday popped off in 2021-22, doubling his production and being named to the First All-Star Team. He moved up to the NCAA with Ohio State last season, continuing to play very well, producing over one point-per-game as an older freshman. He has a big body and protects the puck extremely well with a pleasing level of creativity in his game. He can dish the puck out well too, but his overall ceiling, especially considering his status as a late bloomer, may be muted. He’s likely an AHL regular at this point but could earn the occasional call-up. However, he has surprised in the past.

10. Maxence Guenette

A late draft pick in the 2019 Draft, the Senators called Guenette’s name 187th overall. The QMJHL defender for the Val-d’Or Foreurs has so far been a success. After spending two more seasons in the Q, he made the jump to the AHL and has been a very consistent, reliable defender. He can play big minutes, he’s light on his feet, moves very well, and plays a solid overall defensive game. He doesn’t have a whole lot of offensive upside but there is enough for him to become a bit of a two-way rearguard as opposed to being a strictly defensive guy. Guenette is very reliable. He won’t be a top guy but has the potential to slide into a bottom pairing. For a player selected in the 7th round to be on that path has to be considered a win so far for the Senators.

11. Roby Jarventie

Jarventie showed very promising progression last year in his second AHL season, even if he missed a chunk of time due to injury. He plays a straightforward North/South game and can put the puck in the net. A dark horse to earn significant time with the Senators this year?

12. Jacob Bernard Docker

We’re just not sure why we keep seeing Bernard-Docker high up on prospect lists given how little his offensive game has translated to the pro level. He should play in some capacity, but will he ever be more than an average bottom pairing defender?

13. Angus Crookshank

Is there a more underrated prospect in the Sens system than Crookshank, who led Belleville in goal scoring last year; one season removed from a significant knee injury? He’s a hard worker who could end up being a great complementary piece in Ottawa’s middle six.

14. Phillippe Daoust

The former Memorial Cup standout missed nearly the entire 2022-23 AHL season with an upper body injury. He will be looking to bounce back healthy this season and emerge as one of Belleville’s go-to offensive players.

15. Jorian Donovan

One of the most improved players in the OHL last season, Donovan’s confidence with the puck exploded as he became more aggressive, looking to use his skating and skill to be an impact puck mover. There is still work to be done defensively but his growth thus far has been profoundly positive.

16. Tomas Hamara

Conversely, Hamara’s season in the OHL was not a positive one, as he struggled mightily in the defensive end for the Kitchener Rangers as a rookie. He will return to Kitchener this year and will be asked to play a larger role on a rebuilding team.

17. Kevin Reidler

The hulking Swedish netminder had a good season in the J20 league and will be moving to the USHL this season to play with Dubuque. He likely has his eyes set on the NCAA route.

18. Donovan Sebrango

A former standout with the Canadian WJC team, Sebrango needed a fresh start after toiling in the Detroit system. Now in Ottawa, he will look to earn a large role in Belleville and get his career back on track.

19. Hoyt Stanley

Stanley was a McKeen’s favourite for the 2023 draft and, in our opinion, the Senators got a possible steal as late as they selected him. The mobile defender is incredibly raw and is very much a long-term project. The Cornell program should be great for him.

20. Oskar Pettersson

An effective straight-line attacker, Pettersson was solid in a supporting role for Sweden at the recent World Juniors. The hope is that he can earn more ice time and responsibility at the SHL level this coming season.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – OTTAWA SENATORS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 07 Oct 2023 20:32:56 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - MARCH 22: Ottawa Senators Left Wing Tim Stutzle (18) (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

REVIEW: When the Senators spent the summer of 2022 signing Claude Giroux, then 34 years old, and spending three picks, including the 2022 seventh overall, to acquire Alex DeBrincat, it was a clear sign that they hoped to exit the rebuilding phase. What followed though was a 39-35-8 record – a 13-point gain from a year prior, but insufficient for a postseason berth. Part of the issue was Ottawa finished a mediocre 18th in goals per game (3.16) despite adding two elite forwards. Alex DeBrincat’s 27 goals and 66 points in 82 contests was a regression compared to his 41-goal 2021-22 campaign with Chicago, but the bigger problem was a lack of offensive depth. Eight Senators players reached double digits in goals in contrast to 13 with Edmonton. Ottawa was also mediocre defensively, finishing 18th with a 5-on-5 expected goals against of 174.36, and unlike the Islanders, which squeaked into the playoffs with a worse offense and expected goals against, Ottawa didn’t have an elite goaltender masking their defensive woes. Instead, Cam Talbot and Anton Forsberg were merely average, which sums up the 2022-23 Senators nicely: Not bad, but not good enough.

What’s Changed? The Senators hope they’ve bolstered their mediocre goaltending by signing Joonas Korpisalo to replace Talbot, who left as a free agent. They also failed to agree to terms with DeBrincat, who was a restricted free agent, so they dealt him to Detroit in exchange for a solid middle-six forward in Dominik Kubalik, defensive prospect Donovan Sebrango and two draft picks. In an attempt to make up for the lost offense, Ottawa inked Vladimir Tarasenko to a one-year, $5 million deal.

What would success look like? Ottawa is looking to end its six-year playoff drought, but the competition in the Atlantic Division is intense. A strong year out of Joonas Korpisalo would certainly help, which is possible. He’s not an elite goaltender, but the 29-year-old is solid. A healthy season out of Joshua Norris, who scored 35 goals in 2021-22, but was limited to eight games last year due to a shoulder injury, would also provide Ottawa with a much-needed boost to its offensive depth. Between Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Giroux and Tarasenko, it’s reasonable to believe Ottawa will have two strong lines, but they need enough weapons to fill a decent third unit.

What could go wrong? However, Norris bouncing right back might be too much to hope for. The 24-year-old’s promise is clear, but that 35-goal campaign was also the first time in his career he even reached the 20-goal mark, so he’s far from proven. Meanwhile, Ottawa might get a bit less than Giroux’s 2022-23 finish of 79 points. After all, he’ll turn 36 in January. As far as injury risks go, Ottawa has a big one in elite defenseman Thomas Chabot, who has missed 37 contests over the last two years.

Top Breakout Candidate: One possible solution to Ottawa’s third-line question is Shane Pinto. Playing in his first full campaign, he supplied 20 goals and 35 points in 82 contests last year. Still just 22 years old, Pinto has the potential to start the campaign on the third line and then work himself into a bigger role, especially if Ottawa runs into injury troubles.

Forwards

Brady Tkachuk

Of the 15 forwards who registered over 200 hits last season, no one scored more than Tkachuk’s 35 goals. His 2022-23 season put him in some exclusive company. Alex Ovechkin is the only other player in the NHL’s recorded history to blend that volume of physicality and goal production. Tkachuk’s skillset makes him a unicorn and one of the premier power forwards in the league. Thanks to his willingness to go to the dirty areas of the ice and battle for deflections and loose pucks, Tkachuk has established himself as a shot-generation machine. Of all the qualified skaters who logged over 500 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time last season per NaturalStatTrick, only David Pastrnak averaged more shots per 60 minutes than Tkachuk. Any knocks to Tkachuk’s game are rooted in his defensive contributions and the notion he does not finish as many chances as he should given his shot volume. Considering he scored 35 goals, it may sound weird to read that he does not finish enough, but Tkachuk finished fourth in the league in expected goals (min. 500 5v5 TOI) in 2022-23. His expected goal metrics are always higher than his actual output. One of these years, it feels like if everything breaks right, he has the capacity to put up a monster offensive season. Like many of Ottawa’s other young players, Tkachuk’s poor defensive metrics can partially be explained as a product of the team’s personnel and defensive system. With a vastly improved defensive corps and a greater commitment to puck support as a five-man unit, Tkachuk’s metrics should continue to improve.

Tim Stützle

When the Senators invested in Tim Stützle, signing him to an eight-year contract worth an AAV of $8.35, they gambled on the German’s pedigree and offensive upside. His transition from the wing to centre during his sophomore year helped spark his ability to impact the game on both sides of the puck. In 2022-23, he rewarded the Senators with their long-term investment. He continued to take marked steps in his development offensively and defensively. He would finish the season leading the Senators in scoring with 39 goals and 90 points in 78 games. He became the third centre in franchise history to eclipse that point threshold but holds the distinction of being the youngest to do it at just 21 years of age. The departures of Connor Brown and Alex Formenton represented a significant loss to the Senators’ penalty killing units and Stützle was one of the forwards called upon to fill the void. It speaks to D.J. Smith’s growing confidence in him. Stützle tied for the team lead in shorthanded goals with three and averaged 1:16 of shorthanded ice time per game. Besides the natural growth of a young player, the jump in production can be explained by the quality of linemates. After spending most of the previous season playing predominantly with Alex Formenton and Connor Brown, centring Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux represented a significant improvement. As the team continues to improve around him, the hope is that his offensive production and defensive metrics will continue to improve.

Claude Giroux

Claude Giroux has only played one season for the Senators, but he already has leapt to the top of the list as the best free agent signing in franchise history. In his return home, the 35-year-old wowed fans by recording 35 goals and 79 points while playing in every single one of the Senators’ 82 games. Amazingly, the veteran’s 35 goals established a new personal regular season high. It was the first time Giroux had cracked the 30-goal mark since the 2017-18 season. This boost in production can be chalked up to the chemistry he developed alongside Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle. This trio generated more than 55 percent of the goals (58.49 GF%), shots (56.82 CF%), shots on goal (55.37) and expected goals (59.82 xGF%) at five-on-five per Evolving-Hockey. Playing predominantly as the right winger on this line Giroux had one of the best isolated defensive impacts on the team per Hockeyviz. His ability to impact the game at both ends of the ice was a huge addition to the Senators’ top six. In particular, his strength in the faceoff circle allowed his line to overcome Stützle’s struggles at the dot. Of the players who took more than 300 draws last season, Stützle’s 41.6 percent success rate was the eighth-worst mark in the league. Giroux insulated Stützle’s ineffectiveness with the league’s 10th-best mark at 58.3 percent.

Vladimir Tarasenko

Following the well-publicized departure of last season’s prize acquisition, Alex DeBrincat, the Senators shored up their top six scoring by inking Vladimir Tarasenko to a one-year contract worth $5 million. The signing of the four-time All-Star and 2019 Stanley Cup champion generated headlines. Tarasenko is a recognizable talent who can still be a productive NHL player. In 69 games split between the Blues and Rangers last season, Tarasenko recorded 18 goals and 50 points. It was a step down in production for the six-time 30-goal scorer, but he represented the best available offensive talent that remained on the free agent market. There is a chance that Tarasenko’s waning production is part of an age-related decline, but the good news is that he is just one season removed from the second-best five-on-five shooting percentage of his career (14.8 per Evolving-Hockey). Last season’s (9.7) was the second-worst. A motivated Tarasenko should be extremely valuable to the Senators. If he can get back closer to his career norms, he will have a chance to cash in on the open market next summer. If his production continues to decline, the Senators will still need his offence to outweigh his defensive contributions. Tarasenko’s become a liability on the defensive side of the puck. There is also the question of fit. As a winger who prefers playing his off-side, the addition of Tarasenko to the right wing could necessitate moving one of Claude Giroux or Drake Batherson to their off-side.

Josh Norris

On the heels of a sophomore season in which he exploded for 35 goals and 55 points in 66 games, centre Josh Norris cashed in by signing an eight-year pact carrying an AAV of $7.95 million. The contract represented a significant commitment to the team’s second-line centre and set a relatively high standard for Norris to live up to. Last season, he never got the chance. A devastating shoulder injury curtailed his season and limited him to eight games. So much of Ottawa’s postseason aspirations hinge on Norris’ recovery and his ability to resemble the player that he was pre-injury. Even when healthy, it was fair to believe that Norris would experience some natural regression in his shooting percentage (20.3 in 2021-22). Fortunately, he has historically been a strong shooter throughout his career, so that regression should not be too severe - provided that Norris’ recovery does not inhibit his ability to shoot the puck. Power play usage will be another thing to monitor. Of the forwards who logged over 100 minutes of power play ice time in 2021-22 per NaturalStatTrick, only two forwards averaged a higher goals per 60 minutes of ice time rate than Norris – Chris Kreider and Leon Draisaitl. Norris should continue to play the right side on the first power play unit, but the addition of Vladimir Tarasenko, who also works from that spot, could impact those minutes.

Drake Batherson

On the surface, it is easy to look at Drake Batherson’s numbers and arrive at the conclusion that he had a down year. Scoring 22 goals and tallying 62 points in 82 games is not a terrible season by any measure, but that minus-35 was unsightly. Considering Batherson put up 17 goals in each of the two previous seasons while playing in what was essentially half a season’s worth of games, expectations for him were high. After scoring on more than 15 percent of his shots in each of his previous two campaigns, Batherson’s shooting percentage was almost halved to 8.8 percent last season. Although NaturalStatTrick’s data shows that Batherson’s goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time dropped from 1.08 to 0.37 last season, there are a number of reasons to believe that he can reach another level. He shot the puck more than he ever had in his career. His average of 8.87 shots per 60 of five-on-five ice time per NaturalStatTrick represented a career-high. Last season, only Buffalo’s Tage Thompson (15) hit more posts than Batherson. Provided he can stay healthy and preserve that kind of shot volume, better luck and a regression to the mean in terms of his shooting percentage should allow Batherson to enjoy a career season in 2023-24.

Shane Pinto

For the first time since Brady Tkachuk scored 22 goals during the 2018-19 season, Shane Pinto became the eighth rooking in franchise history to score 20 or more goals in his rookie campaign – joining Tkachuk, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, Patrick Eaves, Daniel Alfredsson, Alexandre Daigle and Alexei Yashin. Pinto started the 2022-23 season strong, scoring six goals in his first eight games. But, when Josh Norris was felled by a shoulder injury, Pinto moved up the depth chart and no longer received the luxury of being insulated. Despite more challenging assignments and responsibilities, the Senators still outshot (51.4 CF%) and created a higher percentage of expected goals (50.7 xGF%) when Pinto was on the ice at five-on-five. With the return of Norris, Pinto will once again be relegated to the third line and potentially easier matchups. For an organization that struggled to generate offence from its third and fourth lines, a returning Pinto armed with the confidence of knowing he can pot 20 goals will be vital to this team’s push for the postseason. One of the things to keep an eye on with Pinto this season will be his work on the penalty kill. Following the departures of Austin Watson, Dylan Gambrell, and Tyler Motte, shorthanded minutes will need to be reallocated. One of the benefactors of those responsibilities should be Pinto.

Dominik Kubalik

As the lone NHL piece that was returned to the Senators in this offseason’s Alex DeBrincat trade, Dominik Kubalik is a reasonably priced player who offers the Senators affordable depth scoring. He is in the last year of a two-year deal carrying an AAV of $2.5 million. In 81 games with the Red Wings last season, he scored 20 goals and 45 points. Brady Tkachuk is entrenched as the team’s first-line left winger, but beyond that, the second line could be open. If Vladimir Tarasenko plays on his preferred off-side, it could necessitate Giroux or Batherson moving to their off-side to accommodate him. The alternative is Kubalik because of his natural left-shot handedness. If he does, there is a chance for Kubalik to flourish. He finished third on the Red Wings in individual expected goals for per 60 (0.81 ixG/60) and individual scoring chances per 60 (7.71 iSCF/60) per NaturalStatTrick. He thrived playing alongside Dylan Larkin and David Perron. Away from Detroit’s top talent, the underlying numbers cratered. Something to keep an eye on is if Kubalik winds up on a line with Tarasenko. The Senators’ forward group is not exactly renowned for its defensive aptitude and their two biggest additions in Kubalik and Tarasenko are not going to bolster that weakness. They could exacerbate it.

Mathieu Joseph

It is never ideal to be referenced in the same breath as the infamous Bill Muckalt, but Mathieu Joseph was the only Senator forward to log more than 500 minutes of ice time who failed to score a five-on-five goal in 2022-23. According to NaturalStatTrick’s data, of the 382 forwards who logged more than 500 minutes of five-on-five ice time, only two forwards failed to score one goal last season: Montreal’s Jake Evans and Joseph. It was a precipitous drop in offence. Following his trade to the Senators at last year’s trade deadline, Joseph averaged 3.89 points per 60 minutes of ice time. Being an 11-game sample, it was naive to believe that this brief stretch was truly representative of his offensive upside. Last season’s output of three goals and 15 points was incredibly disappointing for Sens management after they locked him up to a three-year contract worth a $2.9 million AAV. Without any even-strength production out of Joseph, it really hurts the Senators’ secondary scoring. Hopefully, the return of Shane Pinto to the third line will boost Joseph’s productivity. Fortunately for the Senators, while Joseph struggled to produce offensively, he is still a competent defensive forward and a valuable contributor on the penalty kill that ranked in the top half of the league last season.

Defence

Thomas Chabot

The 2022-23 season was a polarizing one that showcased the best and worst of Thomas Chabot. Often last season, he would take heat for his defensive play and lapses. The numbers backed it up. According to Evolving-Hockey’s Total Defence (DEF) metric that combines the even strength and shorthanded contributions to arrive at a single number for defensive value created, 2022-23 was tied for being the worst defensive season of his career. The good news is that the site’s Total Offence (OFF) metric, which combines even strength and power play contributions measured 2022-23 as being his best offensive year – surpassing his impressive 2018-19 season in which he scored 14 goals and 55 points. One of the things that hurt Chabot last year is that he logged more than 30 minutes of ice time with eight defensive partners last season – including 257 with an ineffective Nikita Zaitsev, one of the least valuable defencemen in the league. Even with poor defensive partners and a lack of continuity, Chabot was rated as the team’s most valuable player according to according to Evolving-Hockey’s ‘wins above replacement’ (WAR) and ‘goals above replacement’ (GAR) metrics. It speaks to his importance in Ottawa’s puck movement and transition game. A full season alongside Jakob Chychrun will inevitably make things easier for Chabot and improve his numbers, but the Senators will need him to be more reliable for the team to take a step forward.

Jakob Chychrun

It took time, but the Senators finally addressed their need for a top-four defenceman by acquiring Jakob Chychrun at the 2023 trade deadline. A lower-body injury limited Chychrun to 12 games with Ottawa, but in those games, he averaged 21 minutes of ice time scoring two goals and adding three assists. Most of his minutes were spent playing with Travis Hamonic to some underwhelming 5-on-5 shot and goal metrics. When they were on the ice together, the Senators generated 48.9 percent of the goals (GF%), 40 percent of the expected goals (xGF%), 43.8 percent of the shots (CF%) and 44.2 percent of the shots on goal per Evolving-Hockey. Fortunately, Chychrun is expected to open the season playing alongside Thomas Chabot. In a very small sample size of 35 minutes of five-on-five ice time, the duo was exceptional – generating approximately 60 percent of the shots and expected goals. A wrinkle is that Ottawa’s three most talented defencemen are all natural left shots. Chychrun has experience playing his off-side, so that mitigates most of the concern, but he has missed 152 games across his seven seasons in the league. With so much invested in Chychrun being the solution to shore the blue line, if he needs to play his natural side or continues to be plagued by injuries, it could really hamper the team’s postseason aspirations.

Jake Sanderson

When Jake Sanderson was selected with the fifth overall selection in 2020, it created some ripples and consternation. Was he the best available defenceman? Should the Senators have targeted another highly skilled forward? Sanderson’s rookie campaign erased any concerns about his selection. He contributed four goals and 32 points in 77 games last season. Only Owen Power recorded more points as a rookie defenceman than Sanderson. Where he thrived was on the defensive side of the puck. His elite skating ability, gap control and active stick made life frustrating for attacking forwards. Perhaps the most flattering thing that you can say about Sanderson’s play last season is that he helped land veteran Travis Hamonic a new two-year contract. The pair logged over 500 minutes of five-on-five ice time together and the results were average. When this pairing was on the ice, the Senators generated as many shots and expected goals as the opposition (50.5 CF%, 49.5 xGF%). They did however give up a greater percentage of actual goals (42.9 GF%), but that can be attributed in part to bad luck. Sanderson is expected to play with Artem Zub this season. In 239 five-on-five minutes together, the Senators generated more of the shots (52.7 SF%) and expected goals (53.3 xGF%). Most impressively, the team suppressed a lot more shots when this pairing was together. Put in contrast with the Sanderson/Hamonic pairing which allowed 33.6 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five, the Sanderson/Zub pairing allowed 24.9.

Artem Zub

Since joining the Senators from SKA Saint Petersburg of the KHL in 2020, Artem Zub has developed a steadfast reputation for being the Senators’ best defensive defenceman. It is that reputation that earned the 27-year-old a four-year contract extension worth an AAV of $4.6 million. And, it is a reputation that is backed up by the data. Using HockeyViz’s data that measures a player’s isolated offensive and defensive impacts, no Senators defenceman had a more significant defensive impact than Zub. Evolving-Hockey’s total defence metric (DEF) had Zub ranked second on the team behind Erik Brannstrom, but injuries limited Zub to 53 games last season - robbing him of the chance to accrue more value. Historically, Zub has always been a player who makes those around him better and in 2023-24, he will be tasked with trying to get more performance and development out of sophomore Jake Sanderson. Considering how well Sanderson fared in his first season playing meaningful minutes carrying Travis Hamonic, the likelihood of Sanderson helping push Zub to a career year feels very real.

Goaltending

Joonas Korpisalo

The rebuilding Ottawa Senators have made it clear in the last few years – goaltenders who are moving on from old teams have a place with the Atlantic Division underdogs, and there’s plenty of time in their rebuild window to be patient with anyone needing a little extra time to get their game back on track. For former Columbus Blue Jackets tandem starter Joonas Korpisalo, it’s the perfect place – out of the public eye, and with a team that’s been slowly but surely turning things around – to prove that he still has an NHL-capable game and establish himself as a number one outside of the free-falling Blue Jackets.

Korpisalo stylistically looked like the less reliable option in Columbus, with a game that relies almost too much on flat angles and post coverage in a way that opened up holes and made him easy to predict. But while Elvis Merzlikins had the flashier game, Korpisalo was the team’s better option last year – and he showed during a brief stint post-trade deadline with the Los Angeles Kings that he might be predictable, but he’s reliable. He struggles at times with rebounds, but his tracking is effective – and for the Senators, the most important thing is that he’s both still relatively young (he’s only 29) and he has a fairly good track record of staying healthy. After multiple years of bad injury luck, the Senators should count it as a win if Korpisalo is even league average while maintaining his reputation as a goaltender who won’t go down for most of the year.

Projected starts: 45-50