Robbie STUCKER – McKeen's Hockey

NCAA 2019-20 Season Preview: Big Ten

Ryan Wagman — Mon, 14 Oct 2019 17:01:14 +0000

With seven schools participating, the Big Ten is inappropriately named. Even if/when the University of Illinois is granted a Division I team and joins the conference to which their other intramural athletics belong, there will only be eight schools in the Big Ten. Once upon a time, there were only ten schools in the historic conference, but it has been 20 years since that was last the case, as Penn State – then without a Division I hockey program – was granted entry to give the conference a round 11 teams.

Until that fateful day arrives when the Fighting Illini grow the sport, the Big Ten will be stuck on seven teams. And they are good teams, with rich histories (except for Penn State, which doesn’t yet have a history). Four different current Big Ten schools have made the Frozen Four championship game in the past decade, but somehow none have walked away with a title. The situation was almost comical in 2018, when the Frozen Four featured three squads from the Big Ten, plus one from the NCHC. The lone NCHC squad naturally ran the table for the title. The most recent Big Ten school to win the National Championship was Michigan State, which won all the marbles in 2007, capping off a run of four titles by three Big Ten schools in six years.

As always though, there is hope in the Midwest that the Big Ten will find a new champion this year. The seven schools have all recruited well and the schools are well coached, with one school in particular bringing in a veritable murderer’s row of high-end talent to supplement an already strong core. But we’ll get to that below. Let’s walk through the schools.

Michigan Wolverines

One the one hand, superstar Quinn Hughes is gone, off to the NHL to quarterback the building Vancouver Canucks’ power play. Fellow blueline stalwarts Joseph Cecconi and Nick Boka have also moved on. The only other significant departure is center Josh Norris, who missed the second half of last season to injury, who turned pro to sign with Ottawa. On the other hand, literally the rest of the team has returned, including captain Will Lockwood, passing on the chance to join Hughes in the Vancouver season to play out his senior year in Ann Arbor.

Besides Lockwood, the star attraction on the Wolverines’ roster this year will be Hughes’ direct replacement, highly touted freshman defender Cam York, like Hughes an alumnus of the USNTDP program, and likewise a first-round pick, having been selected last June by Philadelphia. He is expected to drive the offensive attack from day one. Another USNTDP first rounder joining the team along with York is big center John Beecher, who played a depth role with the UNSTDP last year, but is a fantastic skater and has enough in his hands to expect him to play a two-way top six role with Michigan. After Lockwood and Beecher, the offense features a number of upperclassmen who can contribute to the attack in Jake Slaker, Nick and Michael Pastujov, and Jake Becker. I would also keep an eye on sophomore Nolan Moyle, graduate transfer Jacob Hayhurst, who comes over from RPI, and incoming freshman Eric Ciccolini, who starred in Junior A in Ontario, who all have sleeper potential.

If Michigan is to be a successful team and not just a collection of talented players, they will need one or both of their returning netminders, Strauss Mann, and Hayden Lavigne to step up and stop more than 90% of shots faced, which neither managed last season.

Drafted Players: D Luke Martin (Car, 2^nd round, 2017), D Cam York (Phi, 1^st round, 2019), C Jack Becker (Bos, 7^th round, 2015), C John Beecher (Bos, 1^st round, 2019), RW Eric Ciccolini (NYR, 7^th round, 2019), RW Will Lockwood (Van, 3^rd round, 2016), LW Nick Pastujov (NYI, 7^th round, 2016)

Michigan State Spartans

After three consecutive last place finishes in the conference and having not finished above fifth since 2013-14, the Spartans return with an experienced roster with no lack of skilled players, attempting to turn around the school’s on-ice fortunes. Veteran Head Coach Danton Cole is only his third year in East Lansing, and to his credit, the number of players of interest on the squad has continued to rise, although perhaps not to the extent promised through his years coaching the USNTDP, as precious few of his former charges have followed Cole to MSU.

One who has been able to experience Cole in both location is bis center Patrick Khodorenko, who along with winger Mitchell Lewandowski, is expected to lead the attack, helping supporters move on from, if not outright forget, Taro Hirose, a 2018-19 Hobey Baker Finalist and the Big Ten player of the year, but skipped his senior year to sign with the Detroit Red Wings. At least he will be close by. Candidates to replace Hirose on the first line include seniors Logan Lambdin and Sam Saliba, or star recruit Josh Nodler, although in the latter scenario, either Nodler or Khodorenko would have to move to the wing, as both are natural centers. Nodler at least is a gifted play maker and could fill a similar function on the top line. The other big recruit to the Spartans is Switzerland native Nicolas Muller, who has a long international history for his mother land as well as a history of offensive production in the Swedish junior leagues.

Whichever wingman Cole chooses for his two big returning forwards, the team will not improve in the standings until they tighten up their defensive core. Twin blueliners Cole and Christian Krygier were both passable as freshmen, and Christian looked good in the national colors at the mid-summer World Junior Summer Showcase event. Tommy Miller and Jerad Rosburg round out a reasonable, if unspectacular top four. Similar compliments could be laid upon the returning netminders, Drew DeRidder and John Lethemon. Both stopped a touch better than 90% of the shots they faced last year, although they faced far too many shots for that to be enough. Their brand of high event hockey will be fun to watch, but without a tightening up in the back, they will fall short all too often.

Drafted players: D Christian Krygier (NYI, 7^th round, 2018), D Cole Krygier (Fla, 7^th round, 2018), C Mitchell Mattson (Cgy, 5^th round, 2016), C Josh Nodler (Cgy, 5^th round, 2019)

Minnesota Golden Gophers

When Big Ten Hockey got going, the Golden Gophers were the clear team to beat, winning the regular season title for the first four seasons of the conference’s existence, before a precipitous fall from grace in 2017-18, when they found themselves in the unfamiliar and uncomfortable position of fifth in a seven team conference. Minnesota rebounded to third last year, but it is now clear that their days of homogeneous rule of the roost are over. Hockey in Minnesota still takes on religious fervor and the university team is still an institution, usually getting the pick of local stars, which they have supplemented with the occasional import from another state or nation. But really, this team is, per usual, mostly homegrown, with only eight of 27 roster players with a listed birthplace from out of state.

The top three scorers from last season are all gone, as well as some key blueliners, but the depth of talent in Minneapolis will make the team a threat once again. Speedster Sammy Walker between gifted wingers Blake McLaughlin and Sampo Ranta, all of whom are entering their sophomore seasons, are primed to grow into high end collegiate threats on their way to pro careers. Versatile forward Brannon McMannus took that step forward last year, and an additional step forward on his part could have him firmly in the cross hairs of NHL scouts. Incoming freshmen Ben Meyers, Bryce Brodzinski (the reining Minnesota Mr. Hockey), and Jack Perbix all have a history of offensive production and could challenge for top six roles from the get-go.

The blueline is similarly pro aspiring, with six drafted defenders among them. Tyler Nanne may be the grizzled veteran who will be relied upon to quarterback the power play, but freshmen Ryan Johnson and Jackson LaCombe could both be stars in short order. Both primary goalies from last year are gone, but the two primary incoming tenders are both NHL draft picks in Jack LaFontaine, who previously spent two years at Michigan, and was fantastic in the BCHL last year, and Jared Moe, who was steady, if unspectacular over two seasons with Waterloo of the USHL. If the Golden Gophers can harness the collective talents of the players to play as a cohesive unit under decorated head coach Bob Motzko, they could credibly challenge for the top of the conference once again.

Drafted players: G Jack LaFontaine (Car, 3^rd round, 2016), G Jared Moe (Wpg, 6^th round, 2018), D Ben Brinkman, (Dal, 6^th round, 2019), D Ryan Johnson (Buf, 1^st round, 2019), D Jackson LaCombe (Ana, 2^nd round, 2019), D Tyler Nanne (NYR, 5^th round, 2014), D Robbie Stucker (Clb, 7^th round, 2017), D Ryan Zuhlsdorf (TB, 5^th round, 2015), RW Bryce Brodzinski (Phi, 7^th round, 2019), LW Blake McLaughlin (Ana, 3^rd round, 2018), RW Jack Perbix (Ana, 4^th round, 2018), LW Sampo Ranta (Col, 3^rd round, 2018), C Scott Reedy (SJ, 4^th round, 2017), C Samuel Walker (TB, 7^th round, 2017)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Another program with exceptional coaching, Jeff Jackson enters his 15^th year behind the bench at South Bend, and his 21^st season altogether as a head coach at the NCAA level. The Fighting Irish have a deep veteran roster, augmented by a number of talented recruits. While the squad may not be at the level as the ones which went to the Frozen Four in back to back years, they still will be competitive on a nightly basis and could compete for supremacy in the Big Ten.

The main challenge for the team will be overcoming the graduation of Bobby Nardella, and the early exit of Andrew Peeke, both players going on to NHL contracts. Thankfully, the defensive core still has more than their fair share of pro prospects, with senior Tory Dello hoping a big deal gets him a similar free agent contract as it did for former teammate Nardella. He is joined by four drafted players, with New Jersey pick Matthew Hellickson the likely quarterback. I also expect to see a big jump forward from Nashville pick Spencer Stastney. The blueline will be protecting the net of Cole Morris, whose .930 save percentage last season was actually a letdown after an incredible .944 mark, and accompanying Mike Richter Award, in 2017-18.

Pushing the pace on offense will be a squad that does not look to have one or two central figures, but figures to attack in waves. Captain Cal Burke, a senior, will be looking to earn an NHL contract offer after being among the team’s offensive leaders as a junior. Colorado draft pick Cam Morrison has disappointed since a strong freshman campaign, and he will have ample motivation to finish his collegiate career with a bang. Sophomore Alex Steeves will also want to step forward to put his name back in the crosshairs of NHL scouts, after being overlooked at the draft despite a very strong draft year in the USHL. Trevor Janicke is the most highly touted new recruit, but I wouldn’t sleep on Max Ellis also doing well in his rookie collegiate season.

Drafted players: D Nate Clurman (Col, 6^th round, 2016), D Matthew Hellickson (NJ, 7^th round, 2017), D Nick Leivermann, (Col, 7^th round, 2017), D Spencer Stastney (Nas, 5^th round,, 2018), C Trevor Janicke (Ana, 5^th round, 2019), LW Cam Morrison (Col, 2^nd round, 2016), C Jacob Pivonka (NYI, 4^th round, 2018).

The Ohio State Buckeyes

On the one hand, all of the schools in the Big Ten (with the possible exception of Minnesota) are more known for the exploits on the gridiron than on the ice sheet. That is especially true with THE Ohio State. Between appearances in the Frozen Four in 1997-98 and their triumphant return in 2017-18, the Buckeyes only even reached the year end tournament six times over 20 years, never getting past the first round. In that same time span, the Buckeyes’ football time won 10 Big Ten titles, and two national championships. Now they enter the 2019-20 season coming off three consecutive Tournament appearances, only the second time in school history they have achieved such a run of success. It says here, they could set a new record this year with a fourth consecutive showing, even though their roster has less drafted talent than most others.

With two of the top three scorers last season gone, the offensive drive will be centered on Hobey Baker candidate Tanner Laczynski, whose skills and overall game have improved year over year through three years in Columbus. His skating has gotten more fluid and he has always been an exquisite puck handler and playmaker. He should be ably assisted by Carson Meyer, who acclimatized quickly after transferring from Miami to OSU. I also expect Swedish center Gustaf Westlund to take a big step forward in his sophomore season. As far as newcomers to the squad, look out for Michael Gildon, the only regular skater from last season’s elite USNTDP squad who wasn’t drafted, but capably demonstrated a knack for playing with top end talent and creating space for them. He could grow into a third wheel role on a top six line.

Forwards aside, OSU’s chances for success will once again lie squarely with the defensive half of the team. That include the blueline squad’s ability to keep their own end clean while kick-starting the counterattack with regularity. Matt Miller is the most common defenseman to remain active in the offensive zone, but I expect to see more contributions on the scoresheet from Wyatt Ege this year. Newcomer Layton Ahac could also help give the transition game more of a push. Behind that deep blueline squats one of the more underappreciated netminders in the college game in Tommy Nappier. He has ideal pro size at 6-3”, 194 and took over a regular role as a sophomore last year with sparkling numbers including a 1.86 GAA and a .934 save percentage. A follow up performance that even approaches last year’s will make OSU a tough out no matter how much their offense produces.

Drafted Players: D Layton Ahac (Vgk, 3^rd round, 2019), D Ryan O’Connell (Tor, 7^th round, 2017), LW Miguel Fidler (Fla, 5^th round, 2014), C Tanner Laczynski (Phi, 6^th round, 2016), RW Carson Meyer (Clb, 6^th round, 2017).

Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State’s rise to a legitimately strong hockey school in only seven years as an NCAA accredited program has been nothing short of spectacular. They were close to a .500 team in their debut in 2012-13 and then fell hard in their follow up, finishing with a record of 8-26-2. In the five years since, their cumulative record has been 104-70-17, which included two seasons which finished I the NCAA tournament. On the strength of those finishes, the Nittany Lions have been able to recruit a number of high-end players to further the school’s on-ice exploits, while paving the way for subsequent NCAA entry Arizona State to reach the tournament in a similarly quick period of time. Their quick ascension was also said to be a driving factor in the push for the University of Illinois to seek NCAA status for their Ice Hockey team.

Penn State is well positioned for a strong eighth season, with eight of their top ten-point getters from 2018-19 returning, as well as their starting netminder. And while he wasn’t in their top ten in points last season, Aarne Talvitie would easily have made the cut were he not injured during the 2019 WJC as he had been one of Finland’s best players prior to the injury. Talvitie is also returning. Augmenting the likes of veterans Brandon Biro, Evan Barrett, Liam Fowlkes, and Alex Limoges up front, the Nittany Lions are bringing in a few solid recruits from the USHL in Connor MacEachern and Connor McMenamin, as well as Kevin Wall from the BCHL. If Denis Smirnov can rebound and produce like he did as a freshman, the attack will be exceptionally difficult to contain.

The blueline is similarly deep, led by veterans Cole Hults, Kris Myllari, and Paul DeNaples. Joining them this year are a pair of BCHL recruits in Kenny Johnson (brother of Pittsburgh Penguin, Jack) and Mason Snell, as well as a high-profile transfer from fellow Big Ten program Minnesota in Clayton Phillips. The Penguins draft pick was granted a transfer exemption and will not need to sit out for a season before suiting up, as would almost always be the case with a transferring junior.

Drafted Players: D Cole Hults (LA, 5^th round, 2017), D Clayton Phillips (Pit, 3^rd round, 2017), C Evan Barratt (Chi, 3^rd round, 2017), C Nikita Pavlychev (Pit, 7^th round, 2015), RW Denis Smirnov (Col, 6^th round, 2017), C Aarne Talvitie (NJ, 6^th round, 2017), RW Kevin Wall (Car, 6^th round, 2019)

Wisconsin Badgers

If we look at talent in a vacuum, Wisconsin may be not only the best team in the Big Ten, but in the discussion for the best team in the nation. This is nothing new, and yet the Badgers have not made it to the NCAA tournament since 2013-14, and have only had a record above .500 once in the five subsequent seasons. The lack of team-wide success has been buffluding to the six time nation champions, but head coach Tony Granato has recruited very well and the program continues to add top end players to its ranks on an annual basis, with the most recent freshman class considered by many to be the finest in NCAA hockey. Those players, some of whom we will discuss momentarily, supplement a core which lost only one of its top ten scorers. Despite their previous inconsistency, there was a lot of talent among that holdover bunch as well.

Very little has changed between the goaltending or the defensive crew from last year. Every goalie who appeared in a game is back, and incumbent starter Daniel Lebedeff will be expected to play more steady, reliable brand of hockey between the pipes as the presumptive starter once again. The only regular blueliner to depart was team captain Peter Tischke, who graduated. The five returnees are all NHL drafted and K’Andre Miller still has the look of a future star at the highest levels. If he can stay healthy and in line with team rules, that ascent can begin now. Wyatt Kalynuk and Josh Ess are both smart puck movers, while Tyler Inamoto and Ty Emberson are both more renowned for strong play in their own ends.

With all due respect to holdover forwards like Sean Dhooghe and Linus Weissbach, all eyes this year will be on Wisconsin’s A-rated recruits among the forwards. They include a pair of top half of the first round NHL draft picks from the USNTDP in Alex Turcotte (5^th overall) and Cole Caufield (15^th overall), in addition to their teammate with the USNTDP Owen Lindmark an another mid-round pick in Ryder Donovan. There are also some who think that the true top recruit to Madison is 2020 draft eligible forward Dylan Holloway, who spent last year tearing up the AJHL, and has already represented Canada at last year’s WU18 tournament and this past Hlinka Gretzky Cup. Holloway could be a lottery pick this year if he proves able to produce at the NCAA level as a true freshman. It can be very difficult for so many top talents to gel as a team, but if they can manage it, the Badgers can push for a seventh title. It might be now or never as some of their more prominent drafted players could be turning pro as soon as the 2019-20 comes to a close.

Drafted Players: D Ty Emberson (Ari, 3^rd round, 2018), D Joshua Ess (Chi, 7^th round, 2017), D Tyler Inamoto (Fla, 5^th round, 2017), D Wyatt Kalynuk (Phi, 7^th round, 2017), D K’Andre Miller (NYR, 1^st round, 2018), RW Cole Caufield (Mtl, 1^st round, 2019), C Ryder Donovan (Vgk, 4^th round, 2019), C/LW Jack Gorniak (Mtl, 4^th round, 2018), C Owen Lindmark (Fla, 5^th round, 2019), C Alex Turcotte (LA, 1^st round, 2019), LW Linus Weissbach (Buf, 7^th round, 2017), LW Max Zimmer (Car, 4^th round, 2016).

Big Ten Top Draft Eligible Players

Dylan Holloway, C, Wisconsin
Michael Gildon, LW, Ohio State

Holloway is the only first-time draft prospect of note in the conference, and likely the first collegiate drafted in 2020. I think Gildon should have been selected last season and a solid freshman campaign for the Buckeyes could see him selected in his go-round.

Big Ten Top Free Agents

Brandon Biro, Penn State
Tommy Nappier, Ohio State
Mitchell Lewandowski, Michigan State
Patrick Khodorenko, Michigan State
Cale Morris, Notre Dame

The Big Ten is the conference to be for NCAA free agents this year and I would add names like Alex Limoges (Penn State), Nate Sucese (Penn State), and Brannon McManus (Minnesota) as players to watch.

USHL Playoff Preview: New format, wild results

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 20 Apr 2018 20:21:45 +0000

Looking to add more drama to its postseason, this season is the first in which the USHL has extended the playoffs through the addition of a best-of-three wildcard round, adding two teams to the festivities from each conference. Whereas the league had previously included only the top four from each conference in the playoffs, this year, the fifth and sixth teams received an extra chance as well.

The new setup sees the top two teams from each conference receive a bye week while the third through sixth teams played up to three games in three nights, all at the home arena of the higher ranked squad.

Perhaps in opposition to expectations, the wild card round saw three upsets in its four series. In the Eastern conference, third seed Muskegon fell in three games to sixth seed and defending champions, Chicago, a series capped by a game three overtime winner. Meanwhile, the fifth seed, Dubuque, won the first two games in Green Bay, negating the need for a winner-take-all finale.

In the Western Conference, third seed Fargo eliminated sixth seed Tri-City in short order, winning their two games by a combined score of 8-1. Fourth seed Sioux Falls feel to fifth seed Lincoln in three games. Like with the Muskegon-Chicago series, the home team won the first game, before dropping the next two, with the finale going to overtime.

The Conference semifinals begin tonight (Friday, April 20, 2018) with Youngstown hosting Dubuque, with the other three series beginning tomorrow evening.

Eastern Conference

Team USA (1) vs Chicago Steel (6)

This matchup may not be the mismatch the seeds suggest that it is. During the regular season, Team USA’s league games are effectively split between the USNTDP U17 and U18 squads. This arrangement was great for development, but usually pretty bad for the standings. Since rejoining the USHL in 2009-10, the USNTDP split team has only reached the postseason twice, and not since the 2011—12 season. Of the players who led this team during the regular season. Most of the top contributors will be unavailable for the postseason, as the bulk of the U18 squad, and some of the better U17 players, are currently in Russia representing flag and country at the World Under 18 Championships.

The leftover players are still very talented on the whole, but lacking in high impact. The players most likely to push the USNTDP onward are 2019 draft prospects Ryder Rolston, Matthew Boldy, and Trevor Zegras up front, and Henry Thrun from the blueline. All three forwards were point per game players in the regular season and are potential high end prospects for next year.

Jack Dugan, photo by Hickling Images.

The Steel are led by one of the top drafted prospects in the league in Jack Dugan, a Vegas pick and one of the best non USNTDP draft prospects for this year in Blake McLaughlin. The two made up two-thirds of a great top line over the first half of the season, but were split up around mid-season after a coach firing reminiscent of what took place in Flint of the OHL last year. They also have a very promising 2019 prospect of their own in Robert Mastrosimone. Steel games have been high event games this year. Only the USNTDP has scored more and no other playoff team (including the ousted wild-card entrants) have surrendered more. That said, if they stick with Finnish import Oskar Autio in net, they have a very good chance of getting to the conference finals.

Blake McLaughlin.

Draft eligible players to watch: For Chicago, pay attention to Blake McLaughlin. After exploding in the first half of the season, his production slowed measurably in the second half, but he scored twice in the wild card round. He is a dark horse pick in the late first round or early second round. For the US squad, Erik Middendorf is one of a select few who were not taken to Russia for the WU18 tournament. He is a decent two-way player who can skate. The Colorado College commit could be taken in the seventh round if he shows some offensive punch here.

Prediction: As they played Autio throughout the wild card round, I expect the status quo to remain for the best of five here. Chicago in five.

Youngstown Phantoms (2) vs Dubuque Fighting Saints (5)

Representing Exhibit A in why the Western Conference was the stronger one this year, both combatants here surrendered more goals than they scored this year, not something you would expect from a playoff team, much less the second seed from the East. Both teams have veteran rosters, with Dubuque bringing more size, although Youngstown plays a rougher game. The Phantoms somewhat make up for the time they spend in the penalty box by having a fairly strong penalty kill. Dubuque has been much more mediocre when it comes to special teams this year.

Alex Steeves

The Fighting Saints could have been much stronger this year, as their rosters includes three players drafted by NHL teams in Casey Staum (Mtl), Cole Guttman (TB) and Santeri Virtanen (Wpg). Unfortunately, injuries have meant that Dubuque has spent the majority of the season without any of the three and are not expected to have those players now either. Their offensive attack will be spearheaded by forwards Quinn Preston and Alex Steeves, the latter of whom is draft eligible. Joshua Maniscalco, a former USNTDP member, has been very productive from the blueline as well. Their goaltending looks to be a weakspot, despite Cole Weaver’s great work in shutting down Green Bay in the Wild Card round.

The Phantoms have more offensive weapons at their disposal, including Matthew Berry, Chase Gresock, and Michael Regush. They lack much offensive punch from their defensive corps, although midseason acquisition Michael Callahan has provided solid puck movement. The teams’ biggest strength, however comes from their stoppers. They likely expected to have Chicago draft pick Wouter Peeters claim the starters job this year – and he has been pretty good - but Russian import Ivan Prosvetov has been even better. No matter which netminder they choose for the playoffs, they will have a clear edge over Dubuque in the crease.

Curtis Hall. Photo by Hickling Images/courtesy of the USHL.

Draft eligible players to watch: From Dubuque, it can only be Alexander Steeves. The Notre Dame commit has a big engine and real offensive juice. The team’s leading scorer (seventh league-wide) always wants the puck on his stick and knows what to do when he gets it. From Youngstown, the pre-season pick would have been Curtis Hall, but he has shown that his lack of puck skill severely limits his upside. My personal favorite here is the goalie Prosvetov, who can absolutely dominate at his best. But he may not get the nod as Peeters is also very good. So I will pick Michael Callahan. He is not an exciting prospect, but the Providence commit does a lot of things quietly well.

Prediction: Youngstown in four. Between the top notch goaltending and the more diverse offensive attack, they will be tough to beat, especially under the assumption that Dubuque continues to play shorthanded.

Western Conference

Waterloo Black Hawks (1) vs Lincoln Stars (5)

The Waterloo-Lincoln series should be closer than the two teams’ relative place in the USHL standings would suggest. They both scored a hair under 200 goals on the season, although Waterloo has a team-level GAA of around 0.25 better. A factor that should play a role here is special teams play. Both teams are strong on the penalty kill, with Lincoln’s 84.7% kill rate coming second in the USHL. Waterloo, at 83.8% was not far behind. On the power play, however, the Black Hawks more than make up for the shortcoming when down a man. They had the league’s second best man advantage, scoring 23.6% of the time. Lincoln could only convert on 15.6% of their power plays.

That Waterloo power play was a result of some strong offensive talent. Draft eligible Jack Drury is by far the league’s top power play producer with 12 goals and 22 assists coming on the man advantage. The team captain sees the ice well and knows how to take advantage of the extra space a power play brings. Speedy Ben Copeland, veteran Jackson Cates and midseason addition Benjamin Finkelstein (Fla) make them hard to stop.

The goalie battle is also strong here. Both teams feature drafted goalies, on the roster with Matej Tomek (Phi) playing for Waterloo and Tomas Vomacka (Nsh) for Lincoln, but there is no guarantee that either of the latter get the nod. In the wild-card round, the Stars went with normal backup Derek Schaedig, after a rough outing in game one by Vomacka. The Black Hawks also have Jared Moe, one of the better draft eligible goalies in the league pushing Tomek for playing time.

Paul Cotter

Draft Eligible Players to Watch: From Waterloo, pay attention to Drury. His offensive output has been fantastic and has the requisite hockey IQ expected from a legacy player (Son of Ted Drury) and Harvard commit. The question hanging over his prospect value is whether he can produce enough at even strength. From Lincoln, keep an eye on Paul Cotter, who scored the overtime winner in game 3 of the wild card round. He is a good skater with a nice shot and outstanding questions about his upside.

Prediction: Waterloo in four. Lincoln is the most penalized team in the league, with a gap of 129 minutes between them and the runners-up. That will really hurt them as the Black Hawks can take advantage, and will take advantage, over and over again, presuming Lincoln continues to play their brand of hockey.

Omaha Lancers (2) vs Fargo Force (3)

This series promises to be the exact inverse of the above-discussed matchup of Team USA and the Chicago Steel. While the other series should be full of end-to-end rushes, and blaring goal sirens, Omaha vs Fargo is a matchup of the two stingiest teams in the league. Fargo surrendered 133 goals on the season, while Omaha allowed only 143. Both teams enter hot, with Fargo having won five in a row and nine of ten, while Omaha is riding an eight game winning streak.

The goaltending on both sides is stellar. The expected starter for Omaha, Zach Driscoll, finished second in the league with a .934 save percentage. Fargo’s Strauss Mann came in third, at .932. Should, for any reason, either team need to turn to its backup, Fargo’s Ryan Bischel came in fifth in save percentage and Omaha’s Vincent Purpura finished eighth. Omaha’s offensive attack is led by undersized Czech veteran Filip Suchy, who came in second in league scoring with 69 points. Noah Cates (Phi) and Cole Gallant also both finished with over 50 points. Cates, in particular, is a talented player of the puck. Fargo only had one 50 point scoring in Grant Hebert, but Danish import Jacob Schmidt-Svejstrup would have also reached that plateau were it not for time missed for the WJC and a subsequent injury. Fargo also has a number of defensemen who can contribute to the attack, including Ty Farmer, Spencer Meir, and Robbie Stucker (Clb).

Both teams are good on the PK, sharing identical 83.5% kill rate. On the power play, we see some separation. Omaha was very good this year, scoring on 19% of their man up opportunities. Fargo, on the other hand, put everyone to shame, with a USHL high 24.5% power play success rate. Neither team is overly penalty prone, though, so this element may be diminished in significance during this series.

Draft Eligible Players to Watch: Fargo has an older roster on the whole, without any first time eligible players of note. That said, 20 year old Danish winger Schmidt-Svejstrup turned a lot of heads with his goal scoring exploits at the beginning of the season. He lacks pace and likes to fly the zone early, but he knows how to get himself into scoring position. He finished the season with 26 goals in 40 games. On Omaha, Ryan Savage had the most pre-season hype, but has been largely disappointing. Defenseman Travis Mitchell plays a muscular, disruptive style on the blueline, and could be a late round pick, but the real player to watch is left winger Jack Randl. The Michigan commit has promising offensive touch and will be relied upon in the second wave of attack for the Lancers.

Prediction: This is the closest matchup of the round. Omaha wins in five, thanks to better offensive depth. Lots of close, one goal (or two, with the latter being an empty netter) decisions.

Should the first round proper prediction play out, the Conference finals will pit Waterloo against Omaha in the West and Youngstown against Chicago in the East. In that scenario, I see Omaha shutting down Waterloo and Youngstown outscoring Chicago to set up a Clark Cup matchup between Omaha and Youngstown. In this battle of second seeds, Omaha proves the old adage that “defense wins championships” and brings home their eighth Clark Cup championship, and their first since 2007-08.

2017 NHL Draft Grades: Metropolitan Division – Columbus

Ryan Wagman — Sun, 02 Jul 2017 12:04:03 +0000

Shortly after 1:00pm CST, on Saturday, June 24, 2017, the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins selected William Reilly, a defenseman from RPI as the 217^th player selected, bringing the 2017 Entry Draft to an end. With a few days of hindsight between me and the bowels of the United Center, the urge to spew out hot takes flushed away, it is time to analyze the strategies and selections employed by the league’s 31 teams.

The analysis will focus on the first five rounds, as it is clear to most long-time observers that the final two rounds are often taken up with long-shots, favours to regional scouts, among other reasons. I will, of course, call out some astute late picks, but will not judge a team for the names called in the final hour. The apocryphal story of Pekka Rinne, drafted as an eighth round after-thought in 2004 based mostly on his play in game warm-ups. Few other scouts would have seen him at all, and he has had a very good career, which is not yet over. For the most part, though, those picks have little statistical likelihood of having NHL careers and teams should not be judged there.

Each draft class will be graded using the 20-80 scale that we use in our player specific scouting reports throughout the site. In this context, a 50 is essentially an average grade in light of the picks the team had on draft day. A 20 would mean the draft is an unmitigated disaster while an 80 would be the best draft class of all time. As those things can only be truly seen in retrospect, most classes will trend towards 50 at this point, so pay attention to those we see as outliers.

Finally, all grades are incomplete. Actual winners and losers in this draft class will not be known until 2023 at the earliest, after those who will have “made it” will have played out their entry-level contracts. What I am looking at here is whether, knowing what we know now, the drafting team got good value.

RD	#	CS	MCK	PLAYER	P	AGE	HT/WT	TEAM
2	45	16-E	92	Alexandre TEXIER	C	18	6-0/190	Grenoble (Fra)
3	86	10-EG	hm	Daniil TARASOV	G	18	6-3/175	Tolpar Ufa (MHL) - DNP Inj
4	117	42-E		Emil BEMSTROM	C	18	5-11/180	Leksands (Swe Jr)
5	148	128-N		Kale HOWARTH	LW	20	6-4/200	Trail (BCHL)
6	170	105-E		Jonathan DAVIDSSON	RW	20	5-11/185	Djurgardens (Swe)
6	179	151-N	hm	Carson MEYER	RW	20	5-11/185	Miami (NCHC)
7	210	88-N	hm	Robbie STUCKER	D	18	6-3/180	St. Thomas Academy (USHS-MN)

RD	#	PLAYER	P	TEAM	GP (W)	G (L)	A (T)	PTS (GA)	PIM (Sv%)
2	45	Alexandre TEXIER	C	Grenoble (Fra)	40	10	9	19	69
3	86	Daniil TARASOV	G	Tolpar Ufa (MHL) - DNP Inj
4	117	Emil BEMSTROM	C	Leksands (Swe Jr)	28	21	12	33	35
4	117			Leksands (Swe)	5	0	0	0	0
5	148	Kale HOWARTH	LW	Trail (BCHL)	51	30	29	59	46
6	170	Jonathan DAVIDSSON	RW	Djurgardens (Swe)	44	3	9	12	16
6	170			Djurgardens (Swe Jr)	11	5	7	12	0
6	179	Carson MEYER	RW	Miami (NCHC)	32	10	16	26	14
7	210	Robbie STUCKER	D	St. Thomas Academy (USHS-MN)	25	8	32	40	20

Columbus Blue Jackets – Draft Grade: 40

One of two teams to surrender their first round pick to Vegas in exchange for considerations in the Expansion Draft, the Blue Jackets were forced to sit on their hands on day one. Then again, a few hours before the clock started ticking, they completed a bombshell trade with Chicago bringing Artemi Panarin to Ohio in exchange for Brandon Saad. For a team looking to compete now, keeping their core together was more important than a pick in the mid-twenties, no matter how useful that player might one day be.

When they were finally able to make a selection, they selected the first native of France too be drafted since 2012 and the highest drafted prospect who was actually developed in France in the blindingly fast Alexandre Texier. While it is fair to call into question Texier’s quality of competition up to now, it is impossible to argue against his production. He is expected to move to the QMJHL next year, to play for Baie-Comeau. Columbus was one of the few teams to completely bypass the CHL leagues at the draft.

Of their seven selections, four were out of Europe, one is already playing NCAA hockey and the other two are heading in that direction. One of their more interesting picks was Kale Howarth, a massive, double overager center who put up a strong season with Trail of the BCHL and then crushed at the Prospect Combine. He is expected to spend one more year with Trail before heading off to the University of Connecticut.

Best value: Carson Meyer, RW, Miami (6/179) – A local player who performed very well as a freshman with Miami University, Meyer is undersized, but has impressive puck skills. If he can add more bulk without slowing down, he could be a sleeper prospect in two or three years.

Biggest head-scratcher: Daniil Tarasov, G, Tolap Ufa (3/86): Before last year began, Tarasov was a highly touted goaltending prospect, who had a very impressive U17 season split between the Russian U17 and junior ranks and topped off with strong play at the WU18 tournament. He missed all of the 2016-17 season to injury. He could be a home run, but until further notice, this was a very risky pick.