roberto luongo – McKeen's Hockey

NHL Playoff Preview: Florida Panthers (1) vs. New York Islanders(WC1)

Daniel Friedman and Robert Howard — Thu, 14 Apr 2016 15:37:58 +0000

Summary: These teams are pretty evenly matched, and we think it will go down to the wire regardless of who wins.

The Panthers have several good, to very good forwards, but none quite as dynamic as John Tavares. The Islanders have a handful of defensemen that are rock solid, but none quite on the same level as Aaron Ekblad.

This series will come come down to goaltending. The Cats have Roberto Luongo between the pipes, and he's coming off a strong regular season. The Isles have Thomas Greiss, and he's not exactly a menacing force.
We think they're really going to miss Jaroslav Halak in this series, and that's why we expect them to lose -- even if we expect them to come very close to winning.

PREDICTION: Panthers in 7

Key Injuries: NYI - Jaroslav Halak, Anders Lee, Mikhail Grabovski, FLA - Vincent Trocheck

Critical Factors: Roberto Luongo is the key here, looking to put past playoff performances behind him (35-19-6, 2.35, 0.922). Aaron Ekblad turned in an impressive sophomore season with 36 points, with positive possession numbers (52.9% Corsi), and a big series will help overcome any advantage Islanders have on defense with it’s solid, experienced core in Boychuk, Leddy and Hamonic, just returning from injury. John Tavares will need to provide some heavy lifting to win the first line matchup, having scored nine points in five games heading into the playoffs, after a uneven season - Jagr, Huberdeau and Barkov have been scoring at a point a game since the all star break and are formidable. Nick Bjugstad will need to fill void left by the injury to Trocheck, and his 25 goals.

Potential Breakout Players: Aaron Ekblad for reasons above .. Aleksandr Barkov has been very hot as of late, ending on a scoring streak of nine games (9-5-6-11) and 31 points in his last 30 games (30-16-15-31) .. Brock Nelson, will earn power play time with Anders Lee broken leg, using his size in front of the net – he will have to discover his scoring touch, which seemingly has deserted him as of late.

Season Matchup: Florida 2 – 1.

Key Stats

CF% 5v5 (war-on-ice.com): NYI 49.5% (18^th) FLA 48.7% (20^th)

PDO (war-on-ice.com): NYI 100.7 (6^th) FLA 102.1 (2^nd)

Power Play (NHL.com): NYI 18.3% (17^th) FLA 16.9% (23^rd)

Penalty Kill (NHL.com): NYI 84.5% (4^th) FLA 79.5% (24^th)

Goals For per-game (NHL.com): NYI 2.77 (11^th) FLA 2.83 (8^th)

Goals Against per-game (NHL.com): NYI 2.57 (13th) FLA 2.44 (7th)

Notes: Neither team is strong in possession, but Islanders hold a big edge in special teams with the 4^th ranked penalty kill, while Florida ranks near the bottom in both categories. Florida is second in the league with a 8.8 Osh%, fourth in OSv%, ranking second in PDO .. is it sustainableÉ

Fantasy Hockey: Ranking Goalies by Tier

Peter Harling — Wed, 23 Sep 2015 16:35:35 +0000

For most, trying to predict fantasy goalies is a little like trying to predict where lightning is going to strike. If you are like me, you need all the help you can get. One thing you can do to help better prepare for your fantasy draft is to rank goalies by tiers. Depending on your leagues size, format, and scoring mechanism you can have all different kinds of values associated to players. With goalies, there are a few constants which apply to most leagues and situations that you need to take into consideration.

Skill level of the goalie
Situation: is he the sure-fire staring goalie looking at 50 – 60 starts
Strength of the team: Lousy teams usually equals lousy goalie stats

Below I will rank the top 50 goalies and categorize them into groups. Heading into your draft, you should have an idea of how much value you want to place on a goalie. How soon do you draft one, do you want an elite goalie, are you happy with two good goalies. You can put all your eggs in one basket and use a first round pick on a player like Carey Price. You may think that the league elite goalies fluctuates so much each year, and you would be correct, and therefore you wait until mid-draft and pick a goalie who may have a monster year. Once you have an idea of how your draft strategy, you need to look at ranking the goalies into a tier system. I suggest looking at some of the better fantasy hockey predictors such as the McKeens yearbook, and Dobber hockey and then create your own draft tier list like the one I created below.

Tier I: The Elite

These are the best of the best; they play on Stanley Cup contenders and are the undisputed starter, and are Vezina calibre.

1. Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens – He won it all last year, Vezina, Hart, Lindsay, and Jennings.

2. Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers – King Henrik is arguably the best goalie on the planet.

3. Jonathan Quick, LA Kings – No contest who is the starter with the two time Cup Champion.

4. Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals – New addition to the top five after a breakout year.

5. Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning – Big Ben needs to stay healthy, if so he is elite.

Tier II: The very good

Nothing wrong with this group, they are all capable of being elite but have some question.

6. Pekka Rinne, Nashville Predators – Re-established himself after an injury lost season.

7. M.A. Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins – Always has strong regular season stats and the Pens have beefed up.

8. Tuukka Rask, Boston Bruins – Rask is solid, but what direction are the Bruins headed?

9. Corey Crawford, Chicago Blackhawks – Crawford struggled at times and temporarily lost the crease in playoffs to Scott Darling. A hiccup or a warning sign?

10. Jaroslav Halak, New York Islanders - Was unable to get job done in St. Louis but has looked good on the Island. The Islanders are a team on the rise, can he do for them what he couldn’t do in St. Louis?

Tier III: Good goalies in bad situations

11. Semyon Varlamov, Colorado Avalanche – The Avs had a huge regression but Varly remained solid.

12. Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus – Injuries killed the season last year but Columbus are a team on the rise

13. Roberto Luongo, Florida Panthers – Roberto is getting older, will the Panthers improve while he can still make a difference?

14. Corey Schneider, New Jersey Devils – Entering his prime but desperately needs some run support.

15. Steve Mason, Philadelphia Flyers – Flyers may have finally found their starting goalie

16. Devan Dubnyk, Minnesota Wild – This time last year he was a fantasy after thought, then went on to play in over 40 straight games earning a Vezina nomination. Would the real Dubnyk please stand up?

Tier IV: Should be the starting goalie on a good team…should be!

17. Jonas Hiller, Calgary Flames – Rebound season, Flames projected to regress, contract year, a lot of questions with this player.

18. Frederik Andersen, Anaheim Ducks – With the addition of Khudobin and Gibson pushing, Andersen could lose some starts at the first sign of trouble.

19. Craig Anderson, Ottawa Senators – Has elite type stats, but can’t stay healthy. Had the crease burgled late in the season.

20. Ryan Miller, Vancouver Canucks – Jacob Markstrom will push Miller who struggled at times last year.

Tier V: Split starters on good teams

Tandem situations where the team will ride two goalies, ideal for handcuff situations

21. Jimmy Howard, Detroit Red Wings – Lost the starting job in playoffs, but contract says he is the starter

22. Petr Mrazek, Detroit Red Wings – Is younger and arguably better than Howard.

23. Brian Elliott, St. Louis Blues – Like Howard, lost the starting job in the playoffs.

24. Jake Allen, St. Louis Blues – Is the gaolie of the future, which could begin immediately.

25. Kari Lehtonen, Dallas Stars – Brutal season, may flourish with less pressure.

26. Antti Niemi, Dallas Stars – Couldn’t cut it as a starter in San Jose, may work well in tandem.

Tier VI: The Unknown

Potentially great goalies, potentially getting their first crack as a number one.

27. Martin Jones, San Jose Sharks – Sharks could have a good season and Jones could see the lions share of the starts.

28. Robin Lehner, Buffalo Sabres – Tim Murray believes in Lehner, he drafted him in Ottawa, gave up a first to bring him to Buffalo, but has injury history.

29. Cam Talbot, Edmonton Oilers – Talbot was excellent spelling Henrik Lundqvist when he was injured behind a strong New York Rangers defence.

Tier VII: Split starters on bad teams

30. Jonathan Bernier, Toronto Maple Leafs – The Leafs badly want him to be the answer in goal.

31. James Reimer, Toronto Maple Leafs – Clean slate in Toronto with new management, it’s now or never for Optimus Reim.

32. Ondrej Pavelec, Winnipeg Jets – The Jets are not a bad team, but Pavelec has proven to be very inconsistent

33. Michael Hutchinson, Winnipeg Jets – Again, Jets are a good team, but Hutchinson struggled later in the season

34. Cam Ward, Carolina Hurricanes – Ward has been in steady decline, but is in a UFA contract year.

35. Eddie Lack, Carolina Hurricanes – Lack is a player on the rise. In a better situation he would rank higher. His time may come next year, or as soon as now.

Tier VIII: Boom or Bust

These players need a break to reach their full potential, but I’m saying there is a chance.

36. John Gibson, Anaheim Ducks – If he were not injured last year, he could have been ranked in the top three tiers

37. Andrew Hammond, Ottawa Senators – Count on Anderson being injured, and when that happens, the Sens will look to Hammond. Was his miraculous run an aberration, or is he the next Tim Thomas?

38. Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets – As mentioned above, the Jets are a good team and Pavelec and Hutchinson have underwhelmed. Hellebuyck impressed at the World Championship and could steal the show

39. Scott Darling, Chicago Blackhawks – Darling temporarily won the starting job away from Crawford last year and has a slight chance of doing so again and not letting go.

Tier IX: Rookies

These rookies have lots of potential and should be starters one day, maybe not this year…but maybe.

40. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning – A blood clot will keep him out for the first few months otherwise he could push the split with Bishop.

41. Matt Murray, Pittsburgh Penguins – The AHL’s best goalie will be the backup to Fleury this year, all it takes is an injury and Murray will be the starter.

42. Malcolm Subban, Boston Bruins – Was shelled and pulled in his first NHL game last year but is the future starter for the Bruins and could be the backup to Rask this year.

43. Anders Nilsson, Edmonton Oilers – Was dominant in the KHL last year and returns to the NHL after 23 games with the Islanders.

Tier X: The long shots

If you are drafting these guys, they better be your third goalie or you only score one and you have a Tier one goalie.

44. Karri Ramo, Calgary Flames

45. Michael Neuvirth, Philadelphia Flyers

46. Alex Stalock, San Jose Sharks

47. Jacob Markstrom, Vancouver Canucks

48. Ben Scrivens, Edmonton Oilers

49. Thomas Greiss, New York Islanders

50. Jhonas Enroth, LA Kings

LUONGO WAY HOME

McKeen's Hockey — Sun, 24 Aug 2014 21:42:51 +0000

For the second season in a row, the Florida Panthers finished second last overall in the NHL. Their fantasy value was poor featuring a 2.29 goal per game offense which was 29th overall and a pitiful 10% power play conversion rate which was dead last. Brad Boyes was the leading goal scorer with only 21 goals and the only one on the team. Nick Bjugstad led the team in points with only 38.

Florida did win the draft lottery however and with the first overall pick selected future franchise defender Aaron Ekblad who joins an impressive young core featuring Alex Barkov, Jon Huberdeau, Nick Bjugstad, Brandon Pirri, and Erik Gudbranson who are all already entrenched in top roles with the Panthers.

The future depth is even deeper with a strong defensive group featuring Boston College stars Mike Matheson and Ian McCoshen as well as Alex Pertovic. Up front Vincent Trocheck, Quinton Howden and Rocco Grimaldi will all try to crack the NHL roster as soon as this season as well.

GM Dale Tallon has added veteran leadership to guide this young team with the return of star goalie Roberto Luongo and a pair of his former Cup winners from Chicago Brian Campbell and this season’s addition Dave Bolland.

The future is bright for the Panthers and so is the fantasy value within their roster. Veterans like Scottie Upshall, Brad Boyes, Sean Bergenheim and Tomas Kopecky have very limited value, and only in late rounds in deeper pools. There are plenty of fantasy keepers to choose from, but their full value upside may still be a few years away.

We have posted player profiles of the following: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Jussi Jokinen, Nick Bjugstad, Sean Bergenheim, Tomas Fleischmann, Brad Boyes, Scottie Upshall, Brandon Pirri, Brian Campbell, Dimitri Kulikov, Roberto Luongo

NHL Buyout Candidates and the Fantasy Impact

Peter Harling — Mon, 27 May 2013 12:59:47 +0000

After being a healthy scratch in the post season has Brad Richards played his last game for the Rangers?

With the NHL salary cap declining from $70.2 million to $64.3 million for the 2013 season, the new CBA has provided each franchise with two compliance buyouts. This will allow teams to relieve themselves of hinder some contracts. Teams have two years to use their compliance buyout in either this, or next off season, and may use two in the same year or one in each, or none at all. All the CBA and buyout rules can be found in an easy to read format at capgeek.com. What separates a compliance buyout from a normal buyout is the cap hit. Teams will still need to pay out up to 2/3 of the remaining salary owed to the player. However it will not count towards the teams salary cap. Essentially a get out of jail free card.

So let’s take a look at who may be some of the top candidates for a compliance buyout, and what impact it may have on fantasy hockey.

1. 1. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver –Buyout total $27 million over 18 years

The Canucks are in salary cap hell as they are $100,000 over the cap with only 17 players signed for next season. The highly anticipated Luongo trade would provide them with $5,333,333 of cap room. A good start. One has to wonder, if the Canucks could trade Luongo would he not be traded already? GM Mike Gillis has been saying he has had interest from several teams but would only trade Luongo in a hockey deal. This summer there could be a buyer’s market for goaltending with potential goalies looking for a new jersey such as Ryan Miller, Nick Backstrom, Mike Smith, Tim Thomas, Ray Emery, Evgeni Nabokov, Steve Bernier and more. Perhaps a buyout is their only choice. With so many other options on the market this summer would any team take Luongo's term and contract at any price? If not, the answer is a buyout. The fantasy impact could actually be beneficial if you own Luongo. He can resign with any team other than Vancouver. With $27 million in his pocket he could sign for a very low contract, $2 million for example. Luongo is still a premier starting goalie and if his cap hit were closer to $2 million his value would be tremendous in capped leagues. The departure of Luongo benefits Schneider.

2. 2. Rick DiPietro, New York Islanders – Buyout total $24 million over 16 years

The Islanders are still paying Alexi Yashin over $2 million and have two more years until he is paid off. You can add DiPietro to their buyout bottom line as he has been buried in the minors since earlier in this season. His unfortunate health issues have derailed his career and he is no longer an NHL option. The Islanders have more difficulty reaching the cap floor than the ceiling so why would they buyout RDP? Because he is playing in the minors so his contract does not affect the salary cap. The team will have to pay him the money one way or another. He will be bought out and has no fantasy value before, or after.

3. 3. Brad Richards, New York Rangers – Buyout total $24 million over 14 years

The Rangers are no strangers to buying out bad contracts, Chris Drury and Wade Redden the most recent examples. Redden is the first compliance buyout used by the Rangers leaving them with one more. When Brad Richards was a healthy scratch in an elimination home game four against the Bruins, the topic of the day was will he be the other compliance buyout? The Rangers have cap room with 18 players signed at $51.5 million. However, several key players will need new contracts including Derek Stepan, Carl Hagelin, Mats Zuccarello, and Ryan McDonagh and therein lays the problem. Richards has had a terrible season and the question is, at 33 years old was this just an off year or has age caught up to him? If he has lost his game it would be an indigestible contract at $6.666 million over the next seven seasons. The Rangers may elect other cap management options for a solution this summer and save the compliance buyout for next year in hopes that Richards rebounds. The fantasy impact hinges on his ability to comeback. If he does he has value again (especially if he is bought out and resigns elsewhere for less) and if he does not his career is over. Stepan and Brassard would benefit from a Richards buyout.

4. 4. Ilya Bryzgalov, Philadelphia – Buyout total $23 million over 14 years

The goaltending gong show in Philadelphia was supposed to end with Bryzgalov, but it was just getting started. Mr. Universe has worn out his welcome in Philadelphia and maybe even in the NHL. It is highly likely that Ed Snider eats $23 million to say beat it to Bryzgalov, and that the next contract he signs is in the KHL. If bought out and if he resigns a NHL contract he will be a risky pick, even at a cheap cap hit. Is he worth a pick and dedicating a roster spot to? The reward could be significant if he pulls a Bobrovsky. Lets be honest, no one saw that coming! The Flyers cap is currently over $70 for next season and includes 25 players. A Bryzgalov buyout seems inevitable.

5. 5. Ville Leino, Buffalo – Buyout total $10 million over eight years

Leino is one of the worst free agent signings in recent memory. New Owner Terry Pegula took over and gave the green light to spend, and he will have to spend to purge Leino from the roster now. Buffalo may not like Leino's production for his pay, but they in fact do not need to buy him out. They have just under $49.5 million committed to 17 players next year. There is enough cap room to fill out the roster with Leino on the books. It is speculated that Buffalo will trade Ryan Miller this off season as well which could also free up cap room. Buffalo may also bury him in the minors as he no doubt would clear waivers. Fantasy impact if he is bought out could be good. Before his current contract he was sought after because he provided excellent value making the league minimum while in Philadelphia. If he is not bought out, he is more of an anchor than a sail in a capped league.

6. 6. Keith Ballard, Vancouver – Buyout total $5.6 million over four years

As mentioned above under Luongo, Vancouver has cap problems in a big way going forward and the only perceivable solution is using buyouts. Vancouver has almost $30 million of their available cap committed to five defensemen. Even though Ballard's $4.2 million cap hit is the smallest among the top five, it would provide significant relief. And of the group, Ballard has had the most difficulty remaining in the line-up, often finding himself in the press box. Ballard may find another NHL job, and may rebound on a new team. Worst case scenario he is fourth or fifth depth defenseman with an appropriate cap hit. Either way his fantasy value is very limited.

7. 7. Daniel Briere, Philadelphia – Buyout total $3.3 million over 4 years

Briere owns a no trade clause and it was rumored he refused to waive it close to the NHL trade deadline. If the Flyers want to drop Briere’s cap hit of $6.5 million a buyout may be the only way. His buyout is actually less than one million per year because his contract was front end loaded and he will only earn $3 million in the 2013 season and $2 million in the final season in 2014. At 34 years old and a family man now he may not choose to sign for another year since he has already refused to waive his no trade. Fantasy impact: It is very likely the Flyers do buyout Briere. The only question is if he retires or not. If he inks a new deal for $2 to $3 million he could be a steal (especially if your league includes the playoffs). Matt Read would benefit from a Briere buyout.

8. 8. Tomas Kaberle, Montreal – Buyout total $3 million over two years

Kaberle is perhaps the most probable candidate for a compliance buyout. Montreal has already burned one buyout on Scott Gomez and Kaberle will be the second. He is unable to make the team and his ability to play at the NHL level is long gone. Fantasy Impact: Kaberle has zero fantasy value in any league outside of the Czech Republic.

9. 9. Mike Komisarek, Toronto – Buyout total $2.33 million over two years

Banished to the AHL, Komisarek even had difficulty playing for the Marlies. Money is not a problem for the Leafs and if they believe they are better without him, even in the AHL, he will promptly be bought out. Komisarek has no fantasy value.

10. 10. Sergei Kostitsyn, Nashville – Buyout total $2 million over two years

While Nashville does not need a buyout to be cap compliant with $47 million committed to 16 players next year, I believe they are finished with Kostitsyn’s. After Sergei gave up on a play that directly led to a goal against and cost the game, the Pred’s season essentially ended. I believe that the team feels they will be better without him and buyout the remaining year of his deal. His three goals and minus -5 will not be missed. Sergei will join his brother in the KHL, he has no fantasy value.

After making a case for the top ten candidates for compliance buyouts, I think there will be only a select few who are actually bought out. I also gave consideration to other players such as Vincent Lecavalier, David Booth, and Marc-Andre Fleury but they didn’t make the list. The Buyout window begins on June 15^th or 48 hours after the final Stanley Cup game and closes June 30^th so we wont have to wait long to see who (if any) receive a compliance buyout.