Ryan Ellis – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY HOCKEY POINTS- 2021-22 – NEW SEASON!

Scott Cullen — Wed, 22 Sep 2021 20:47:12 +0000

Welcome to a new season of 20 Fantasy Points on McKeen’s Hockey. Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

One thing to remember when looking at trends is that they are not intended to be guarantees of future performance. They might provide indicators or probabilities but, sometimes, in a league with more than 700 players, there are exceptions, players that can ride a wave of high percentages.

So here are some stats to consider as we approach the 2021-2022 season, with much more to come leading up to the drop of the puck and throughout the NHL season.

#1 Goal scoring has increased in recent years but was down a little bit last season. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, goals per team per game hovered around 2.98 goals per game. Last season, it was down to just under 2.90 goals per game. That’s not a dramatic decline and the consistency of the range should make it a little more manageable for forecasting purposes. As recently as 2017-2018, the goals per team per game average was 2.72, so we are operating in a world with a little more offense.

#2 One of the paths to finding fantasy hockey value is to go against public perception and one of the factors in public perception, both good and bad, is playoff performance. For that reason, there is probably value to be found in the likes of Pittsburgh goaltender Tristan Jarry after he posted a .888 save percentage in a six-game first-round loss to the Islanders. Similarly, New Jersey winger Tomas Tatar was a healthy scratch for the Montreal Canadiens for most of their run to the Stanley Cup Final, which overshadows that Tatar was comfortably the Habs’ top scorer over the past three seasons. Even Toronto’s Mitch Marner, to some degree, could provide some value here. His past two playoff performances have been entirely forgettable and yet his 228 points in the past three seasons ranks eighth and his 1.16 points per game in that time ranks 10^th.

#3 A common, and more recent way to find value is seeking out players due for regression when it comes to on-ice shooting percentage. This works in both directions but players that have really high on-ice shooting percentages are likely to decline and those that are really low tend to get a bit of a boost. It is not a universal truth but a tendency. Some players who benefited from a high on-ice shooting percentage last season include Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno (15.1 OisH%), Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson (13.8 OiSH%), Seattle’s Jared McCann (13.6 OiSH% with PIttsburgh), Detroit’s Jakub Vrana (13.5 OiSH%), Vegas’ Chandler Stephenson (13.0 OiSH%), and Washington’s Evgeny Kuznetsov (12.9 OiSH%). This does not mean that those players can’t be productive this season, but they are not likely to duplicate those high percentages.

#4 A sustainable on-ice shooting percentage, over a three-year span, ranges between 11 and 12 percent, which is still higher than the vast majority of players can expect. From that group above, Kuznetsov (11.9%), Vrana (11.5%), and Pettersson (11.4%) have had high on-ice shooting percentages more consistently in the past three seasons.

DALLAS, TX - FEBRUARY 23: Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen (4) handles the puck at the blue line during the game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Dallas Stars on February 23, 2019 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX. (Photo by Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire)

#5 On the low end of the on-ice shooting percentage spectrum, there are always going to be grinders who don’t necessarily fall into the fantasy discussion that have very low on-ice shooting percentages. Some players that had low on-ice shooting percentages last season that could reasonably expect better in 2021-2022 include: Detroit’s Dylan Larkin (4.9%), the Islanders’ Kyle Palmieri (5.3%), Nashville’s Filip Forsberg (5.5%), and Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen (5.6%).

#6 Similarly, individual players tend to fall within a reasonable range when it comes to their own shooting percentage. Those that are inflated are likely to come down and the player who is generating shots but not getting goals is likely to have their shooting percentage improve. Again, this is not a hard and fast rule – because Rickard Rakell exists – but a tendency. Some players that had unusually lofty shooting percentages last season include:

Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno (27.5%), whose previous high in a season of at least 20 games, was 13.4%.

St. Louis’ Brandon Saad (22.1% with Colorado), whose career shooting percentage going into last season was 11.4%.

Vegas’ Mark Stone (21.4%) and Stone has been a high-percentage finisher for his career (15.8%) but that’s not 21.4% either.

Washington’s T.J. Oshie (20.8%) which is unsustainably high, but Oshie has been scoring on 17.9% of his shots in six seasons with the Capitals, making hay on that power play, so while he may not score on such a high percentage again, the drop off may not be so dramatic in Oshie’s case.

Seattle’s Alex Wennberg (20.7%) was a notorious pass-first playmaker for his entire career, scoring on 8.0% of his shots prior to last season before he turned sniper with the Florida Panthers. It would be surprising if his shooting percentage did not fall by a significant amount this season.

Chicago’s Alex DeBrincat (20.6%) had a career-low shooting percentage of 8.7% in 2019-2020, so he seemed like a good bet for a bounce-back season in 2021, but that was a dramatic swing.

#7 Whose high shooting percentages can be trusted? In the past three seasons, the shooting percentage leaders (all situations, min. 1000 minutes) are:

Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (20.1%)

Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point (19.2%)

Washington’s T.J. Oshie (19.0%)

Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos (18.2%)

Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele (17.8%)

Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson (17.6%)

#8 On the other hand, some players that uncharacteristically low shooting percentages during the 2021 season:

Montreal’s Jonathan Drouin (2.6%) had a career shooting percentage of 9.7% going into last season.

Buffalo’s Jack Eichel (3.3%) scored on a career-high 15.9% of his shots in 2019-2020 but regression came for him in a big way last season and now he remains in a holding pattern, unsure for which team he will play his next game.

Boston’s Jake DeBrusk (5.4%) had scored on 13.5% of his shots in his first three NHL seasons before his shooting percentage crashed last season.

St. Louis’ Vladimir Tarasenko (6.2%) had never finished an NHL season with a shooting percentage lower than 10.7% prior to last season. Maybe his ongoing shoulder issues played into it, or maybe he was just snakebit, but he finished with just four goals in 24 games.

Buffalo’s Jeff Skinner (6.3%) has had fluctuating shooting percentages throughout his career but after scoring 40 goals on a career-high 14.9% shooting percentage in 2018-2019, he has dropped off dramatically. Can he get it back?

#9 Opportunity is always a driver of fantasy hockey value. Some forwards looking at significant new roles with new teams include Conor Garland, Vancouver; Blake Coleman, Calgary; Zach Hyman, Edmonton; Viktor Arvidsson, Los Angeles; Brandon Saad, St. Louis; Nick Ritchie, Toronto.

#10 On defense, the move to a new team might result in more power play time but the opportunity to play with a different supporting cast can make a difference, too. Here are some defenders that could be looking at beneficial new situations: Ryan Ellis, Philadelphia; Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Vancouer; Vince Dunn, Seattle; Alex Goligoski, Minnesota; Adam Boqvist, Columbus; Shayne Gostisbehere, Arizona. Probably Tony DeAngelo in Carolina, too.

#11 Considering how team-dependent goaltending production tends to be, goaltenders that switch teams might have the greatest change in their fantasy value. Think of how much more appealing Darcy Kuemper is in Colorado than if he had stayed in Arizona. Same for Linus Ullmark in Boston. At the lower end of the goaltender spectrum, Adin Hill could benefit from the move from Arizona to San Jose, at least in terms of having an opportunity to play more.

#12 The opposite side of that coin is the goaltenders that moved to teams that are not likely to be as strong as the team they left and that will put a dent into their fantasy value. Philipp Grubauer moving from Colorado to Seattle and Marc-Andre Fleury going from Vegas to Chicago are a couple of notable examples. Alex Nedeljkovic likely faces a worse team in front of him in Detroit, after playing in Carolina, but also has a likelihood of handling a starter’s role for a full season, so there are trade-offs to consider.

ANAHEIM, CA - MARCH 10: Anaheim Ducks Left Wing Trevor Zegras (46) in action during a game against the Los Angeles Kings played on March 10, 2021 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

#13 The NHL has rules governing rookie eligibility and one of the main facets is that players can not have played 26 or more games in a previous NHL season. Here are some players that are officially rookies that flashed some potential in 2021: Trevor Zegras, Anaheim; Jamie Drysdale, Anaheim; Tanner Jeannot, Nashville; Wade Allison, Philadephia; Shane Pinto, Ottawa; Cole Caufield, Montreal, and Evan Bouchard, Edmonton.

#14 Connor McDavid scored 105 points in 56 games to lead the league last season. Pro-rated over an 82-game season, Leon Draisaitl and Brad Marchand would have hit 100 points last season, too. How many players could score 100 points in an 82-game 2021-2022 season? Since 2015-2016, there have been 13 100-point seasons recorded in the NHL. McDavid has four, Nikita Kucherov, Patrick Kane and Draisaitl have two, while Marchand, Claude Giroux, and Sidney Crosby each have one.

#15 Can anyone catch McDavid for the scoring title this season? It won’t be easy, since a pro-rated total at last season’s scoring rate (1.88 points per game) would give McDavid 154 points. The closest contenders would seem to be Kucherov, who scored 128 points (1.56 points per game) in 2018-2019, Draisaitl, who tallied 110 points (1.55 points per game) in 2019-2020, and perhaps Artemi Panarin, who has back-to-back seasons with 1.38 points per game for the New York Rangers.

#16 One measure of interest when it comes to forecasting player point totals is individual point production (IPP) because it shows the percentage of points that a player is involved in relative to the number of goals for which they are on the ice. Some players have more of the offense run through them so, naturally, their percentages will be higher, but an IPP that is atypically high is not likely to be duplicated. Some players coming off a season with a high all-situations IPP include Toronto’s Jason Spezza (90.9%, Minnesota’s Mats Zuccarello (87.5%), N.Y. Rangers’ Artemi Panarin (84.1%), Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (84.0%), St. Louis’ David Perron (82.9%), and San Jose’s Tomas Hertl (82.7%).

#17 On the other hand, some players who might expect an IPP boost this season compared to last include: St. Louis’ Robert Thomas (46.2%), Nashville’s Matt Duchene (46.4%), N.Y. Rangers’ Chris Kreider (46.2%), Nashville’s Ryan Johansen (47.8%), and Colorado’s J.T. Compher (48.7%)

VANCOUVER, BC - MARCH 06: Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) waits for a face-off during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on March 6, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#18 While McDavid running away with the points race was amazing, Auston Matthews had a comfortable margin in the race for the Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s leading goal scorer, tucking in 41 goals, eight more than McDavid, who was in second place. Who are Matthews’ top challengers? Well, naturally McDavid should be considered and it would be insulting not to include Alex Ovechkin, who has led the league in goals nine times, but outside of that group, maybe Boston’s David Pastrnak, who scored 48 goals in 2019-2020 or, conceivably, Chicago’s Patrick Kane or Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov, who are two of six players to have multiple 40-goal seasons since 2015-2016 (the others being Matthews, McDavid, Draisaitl, and Ovechkin).

#19 The darkhorse candidate could be Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, who has never scored more than 41 goals in a season and is coming off a year in which he managed just 20 goals in 48 games but MacKinnon consistently generates more than four shots on goal per game season after season and if he puts up 350-plus shots in an 82-game season, it is possible that MacKinnon could score 50 goals and that would put him into the mix.

#20 Shot volume is an important indicator when it comes to goals. Since 2015-2016, there has been one season in which a player scored 30 goals and did not have more than two shots on goal per game – New Jersey’s Adam Henrique, in 2015-2016, scored 30 goals on just 1.86 shots per game. In that time, there is only one player to have multiple 30 goal seasons while generating fewer than 2.5 shots on goal per game and that is Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele.

S-Pekka-Tacular – Nashville Predators 2018-19 Season Preview

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 18:10:56 +0000

REVIEW / STATE OF PLAY – The Nashville Predators went all the way to the Stanley Cup Final in 2016-2017 and looked like a serious contender again for 2017-18. A lot certainly went right for them in the regular season. While they had no player reach the 30-goal or 65-point milestones, they still finished seventh in goals scored with seven players chipping in at least 15 goals and 13 players reaching double-digits.

Pekka Rinne also put forth a superb effort to capture the Vezina Trophy for the first time in his career after some near misses. The end result was that the Nashville Predators captured the Presidents’ Trophy with 117 points. Like the other recent winners of the Presidents’ Trophy though, playoff success didn’t follow. It wasn’t a disaster, but after besting Colorado in six games, the Predators were defeated by the Winnipeg Jets in seven games.

SO LONG, AND THANKS FOR ALL THE FISH – Mike Fisher came out of retirement late in the 2016-17 campaign to join the Nashville Predators for one last run. Unfortunately, it didn’t result in the former captain being able to cap his lengthy career with a Stanley Cup championship, but it was an opportunity for Predators fans to say one final goodbye. Though perhaps someday he’ll be back in a coaching capacity, as Predators bench boss Peter Laviolette has tried to persuade him to do.

Beyond Fisher’s departure, they also lost defenseman Alexei Emelin, who averaged a modest 16:53 minutes. In his place is Dan Hamhuis, who agreed to a two-year, $2.5 million contract with Nashville after recording 24 points and averaging 20:11 minutes in Dallas last season. Scott Hartnell is also gone after being limited to 12:01 minutes per game and that role might be partially filled by Zac Rinaldo, should he make the team after agreeing to a two-way contract.

While the Predators are going into the season with largely the same team though, there were some noteworthy re-signings over the summer. Juuse Saros inked a three-year, $4.5 million contract and has the opportunity to transition into the starting role given that Rinne will turn 36-years-old in November and is entering the final season of his contract. Meanwhile, Ryan Ellis was signed to an eight-year, $50 million contract that begins in 2019-20. Of Nashville’s defensive core of PK Subban, Mattias Ekholm, Roman Josi, and Ellis, only Ellis’ contract is set to expire before the summer of 2022 (Ellis’ deal is up in the summer of 2020).

Pekka Rinne

WAS CHANGE NECESSARY? – The Predators already had the reigning Vezina Trophy-winner, a young backup goaltender that’s showing promise as a future starter, and a defensive core that’s the envy of most of the league. The only thing the Predators really lack is star power up front and the importance of that is debatable.

Nashville showed that it was more than capable of generating offense by committee last season and there is some reason to believe that that same group might do better this time around. Filip Forsberg was limited to 67 games while Ryan Johansen had his lowest points per game pace since 2012-13, so the Predators might get more out of both of them this season. Viktor Arvidsson also has some potential upside left after back-to-back 61-point campaigns.

The Predators will also have a full season with Kyle Turris after he was acquired on Nov. 5, 2017. While the difference from having Turris at the start of the campaign versus November might not be huge, it is another moderate change to the Predators’ advantage and all those potential factors do start to add up.

The other thing that the Predators have going for them is that they’re still a relatively young team. Rinne’s age was mentioned above, but he’s the only member of Nashville’s core that’s even reached the age of 30. Nashville’s window is still very much open so there are plenty of reasons why the Predators don’t need to rock the boat right now.

OUTLOOK – Nashville is entering the season as a serious Stanley Cup contender once again. There are a few other powerhouse teams in that group, but Nashville stands apart from many of them by drawing its strength by stellar defensemen and goaltending rather than amazing top-end forwards. That doesn’t make the Predators better or worse than those teams by itself, but it does give Nashville a bit of a different flavor from the other potential juggernauts as the campaign begins.

McKeen’s 17-18 Yearbook Updates

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 22 Sep 2017 21:20:54 +0000

It is early in the pre-season, but Ryan Dadoun brings a round up of the news so far. Nothing earth shattering, but lots to keep an eye on. McKeen's will do an update end of day Monday based on injuries, camp performance, etc.

In the meantime here is what you need to know.

Anaheim

Hampus Lindholm – Shoulder injury will probably keep him out until early November. That’s not surprising given the initial projections from when he had surgery in May, but it’s his absence is more probable now than it was over the summer.

Ryan Kesler – The hope is to have him back by Christmas after he underwent hip surgery in June. Over the summer it looked like he might be back in November, so the recent news here has been discouraging.

Antoine Vermette – Might end up being the one to fill the void left by Kesler. He’s been practicing on a line with Andrew Cogliano and Jakob Silfverberg. If we’re talking about standard fantasy leagues though, Vermette’s value is still borderline at best.

Arizona

Jason Demers – The Coyotes acquired him from the Florida Panthers. Arizona views him as a top-four defenseman, but it’s not clear who his defensive partner will be. He got a decent, but not great, amount of power-play time in Florida last season while Keith Yandle/Aaron Ekblad served as the team’s primary defensive options with the man advantage and he’ll probably end up in a similar situation in Arizona behind Oliver Ekman-Larsson/Alex Goligoski when it comes to power-play ice time.

Boston

Torey Krug – He suffered a non-displaced jaw fracture on Tuesday and was projected to miss at least three weeks from that date. That will cost him most of training camp and at least three regular season games.

Buffalo

Alexander Nylander – He suffered a lower-body injury on Sept. 8 and hasn’t skated at all in training camp as a result. Good news is that the Sabres think he’ll resume skating in near future, so maybe he’ll still return with enough time to spare to make his case for a roster spot.

Carolina

Lee Stempniak – More of a side note for now, but he’s been dealing with an undisclosed problem that might be more serious than initially believed. He has soreness in his hip/back and had an MRI on Thursday, so we’ll see what the results of that are.

Detroit

Andreas Athanasiou – Still hasn’t signed. There’s the threat of him heading to the KHL and even if he does re-sign in the not too distant future, he’ll be a young player that’s missed a good chunk of training camp/preseason play.

Edmonton

Ryan Strome – It’s a bit of a stretch to mention at this stage, but the Oilers seem to be going with a top line of Maroon, McDavid, and Strome so far. As a fun aside, McDavid also thinks Strome is a good sleeper pick in fantasy leagues. (https://www.nhl.com/news/edmonton-oilers-connor-mcdavid-sees-ryan-strome-as-fantasy-sleeper/c-290885390?tid=277729150)

Drake Caggiula – Similarly, it might be too early to read into it, but so far Drake Caggiula is being tested on the second line with Draisaitl and Lucic.

Los Angeles

Marian Gaborik – Is taking some contact as he recovers from a knee injury. Still unclear if he’ll play in the preseason, but it’s progress.

Nashville

Ryan Ellis – This happened a couple weeks before training camp, so you probably already have it in your projections, but just in case he’s out for four-to-six months with a knee injury. That has led to them mixing up their defensive pairings though. Ekholm and Subban were split up so that Ekholm is now with Josi (although Ekholm-Weber has also been experimented with) and Subban is with newcomer Emelin.

New Jersey

MONTREAL, QC - SEPTEMBER 21: New Jersey Devils center Nico Hischier (13) waits for play to begin during the third period of the NHL preseason game between the New Jersey Devils and the Montreal Canadiens on September 21, 2017, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

Nico Hischier – Another stretch, but for what it’s worth Nico Hischier has stood out in preseason games so far, upping what were already good odds of him making the team. Hynes suggested that Hischier has forced talks of him having a bigger role than previously projected. Hischier-Hall is an interesting combo, though of course it’s another preseason pairing so who knows.

NY Islanders

Alan Quine – Quine sustained an upper-body injury in mid-September that was projected to cost him four-to-six weeks. So he’s missing training camp and a couple weeks of the regular season in all likelihood.

Ottawa

Colin White – Suffered a broken left wrist on Monday and is projected to miss six-to-eight weeks. He had been seen as being in a good position to make the team, especially due to Derick Brassard being a question mark. Although…

Derick Brassard – His recovery from shoulder surgery is ahead of schedule, per what Guy Boucher said today. He still might not be ready for the start of the regular season.

Clarke MacArthur – Unfortunately even after his strong playoff showing, he ended up failing his physical. Sucks to say, but it may be that his playing career is over.

Erik Karlsson – As of Thursday he still wasn’t skating due to his foot injury. He’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season and who knows if he’ll be begin the curve once he finally is given the green light to play.

Philadelphia

Travis Sanheim – It’s still tentative, but he’s off to a good start and seems to have improved his chances of making the team. Had 10 goals and 37 points in the AHL last season.

Sean Couturier – The Flyers are toying with using Claude Giroux as a left winger. Couturier could be the beneficiary if that happens as he could move up in the depth charts as a result, possibly even on a line with Giroux and Jakub Voracek (which they did test out in practice, but that doesn’t mean they’ll actually use it in games).

St. Louis

Zach Sanford – Suffered a dislocated left shoulder that will keep him sidelined for the next five-to-six months.

Jay Bouwmeester – Has a fractured left ankle that will be re-evaluated in three weeks. Along with Sanford, these ones are fringe just because they didn’t have much in the way of fantasy value even when healthy.

Alexander Steen – Suffered a hand injury in the Blues’ first preseason game on Tuesday that will cost him at least three weeks (at which point he’ll be re-evaluated). Certainly he’s the most noteworthy of the three fantasy wise.

Toronto

Patrick Marleau – It’s looking like Patrick Marleau won’t play alongside Matthews in even strength as Babcock’s preference appears to be a trio of Zach Hyman, Matthews, and William Nylander. Marleau and Matthews should share the ice in power play situations though.

Joffrey Lupul – Team’s says he failed his physical, but now it looks like the league wants to look into it after Lupul’s claim of cheating followed by his retraction(deletion)/apology. Probably doesn’t matter fantasy-wise either way. Even if Lupul is deemed fit to play he’ll probably end up in the AHL at most.

Vegas

James Neal – Has a broken hand that was projected to sideline him for two-to-four weeks. He’s one week into that timetable at this point so perhaps he’ll be okay for the season opener. Still sucks to miss training camp on a brand new team though.

Washington

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 16: Washington Capitals left wing Jakub Vrana (13) makes a pass during an NHL game on March 16, 2017, at the Verizon Center, in Washington, D.C. between the Washington Capitals and the Nashville Predators. Nashville won 2-1 in overtime.
(Photo by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire)

Jakub Vrana – More grain of salt stuff, but the Capitals have been giving him top-six opportunities. He played alongside Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov in Wednesday’s preseason game and tonight it looks like he’ll be with Backstrom and Oshie (Kuznetsov/Ovechkin aren’t playing).

Winnipeg

Tyler Myers – Feels 100% after only playing in 11 games last season.

NHL Playoff Preview: Anaheim Ducks (1) vs. Nashville Predators (WC1)

Daniel Friedman and Robert Howard — Fri, 15 Apr 2016 23:49:24 +0000

Summary: This may be the most interesting series in the first round. You've got a pair of very capable offenses going head-to-head, and the possibility for a major upset – if Pekka Rinne can return to his former glory – and wins the battle against unproven sophomore John Gibson – this is a closer series than first appears.

The offenses matchup over four lines, and they both have good, mobile defense - giving an edge to Weber and Josi as the top pair in the NHL. Some key battles will decide the series, none more important than goaltending. The Nashville forwards need to continue their late season production against the Jennings Trophy winner.

PREDICTION: Anaheim in 7 (note: Daniel is calling for a Nashville win in 7 games, for a spoiler pick)

Key Injuries: ANA – Frederik Andersen had a late season concussion, plus a number of day to day injuries expected to be back for the playoffs, including Gibson, Kesler, Bieksa and Rakell. and Perron – They are a little banged up. NSH – nothing major.

Critical Factors: The addition of Ryan Johansen has given Nashville the big center they have coveted, and he and James Neal are finding some chemistry heading into the playoffs. Filip Forsberg continues his climb to a superstar and could be a difference-maker. Ryan Kesler provides secondary scoring (see Breakouts below), shutdown acumen, and a big game temperament. The emergence of Richard Rakell provides further depth. The Kesler/Johansen matchup could decide the series on its own, particularly if Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry begin to roll. Anaheim gets the edge on the top two lines, but the Nashville depth over four lines should not be underestimated with some veterans that can provide a gritty game, with timely goal-scoring. Both teams boast mobile, creative playmakers who contribute to the offense. Anaheim’s young, quick group, featuring Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler and Hampus Lindholm - all under 24 years of age (six starting defenseman altogether - seriously), and may be overmatched by Nashville with arguably the top pairing in the league in Shea Weber and Roman Josi - and their own young mobile defensemen emerging this season in Matias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis. Pekka Rinne tied for the 8^th worst save percentage this season with 0.908 and struggled. In 34 playoff starts he has a losing record and a save percentage of 0.914, - and finished with 0.901 SV% in March and April to raise further flags – contrasted with John Gibson’s 0.925 SV% over the same time period. The Ducks have gone 34-10- 5 after the Christmas break, overcoming adversity, and buying into a team first/defense first approach in the new year under Boudreau. Additions of Ryan Garbutt and Jamie McGinn mid-season bring more grit and defensive prowess over the third and fourth line.

Potential Break-out Players: Ryan Kesler has been on fire since January 1^st since a brutal start and has managed close to a point a game pace (43-17-24-41) since the New Year – remember he delivered 13 points in 16 games in last year’s playoffs. His linemate Jakob Silfverberg broke out last year in the playoffs and has been hot down the stretch, scoring 11 goals in 14 games (14-11-5-16). Filip Forsberg was a point a game in his last 30 games (30-19-15-34). Ryan Johansen finished with 18 points in 19 games (19-4-14-18). Roman Josi could make his statement as one of the elite defenseman in the league and step out of Shea Weber’s shadow (if he hasn’t already) – he finished the season at a superstar pace (30-4-22-26). David Perron was a good addition, scoring 20 points in 28 games as a Duck (28-8-12-20) and returns from injury in time for the playoffs.

Season Matchup: Nashville 2-1. Both wins were in regulation. Most significantly they have not met since November, with all three games at the start of the season, and they were very different teams then.

Key Stats:

CF% 5v5 (war-on-ice.com): ANA 52.4% (5^th) NSH 52.5% (4^th)

PDO (war-on-ice.com): ANA 99.0 (27^th) NSH 99.l5 (21^st)

Power Play (NHL.com): ANA 23.1% (1^st) NSH 19.7% (10^th)

Penalty Kill (NHL.com): ANA 87.2% (1^st) NSH 81.2% (16^th)

Goals For per-game (NHL.com): ANA 2.62 (17^th) NSH 2.73 (13^th)

Goals Against per-game (NHL.com): ANA 2.29 (1^st) NSH 2.60 (14^th)

Notes: Anaheim’s excellence on special teams, leading the NHL in both categories, provides a big advantage. While they are largely even on offense, Anaheim’s number one ranked defense could be the difference, depending on goaltending. Anaheim had the second worst Osh% (6.6) in the league over the season – from the start of 2016, they were 9^th (8.9) posting a ridiculously low 4.8 Osh% and 97.2 PDO before the New Year. Nashville were middle of the pack in both time periods (7.3 and 7.7).

2015-16 Yearbook: Under the radar fantasy all-stars

James Mirtle — Sat, 05 Sep 2015 12:14:14 +0000

Comeback players, rebound candidates, up-and-coming kids and settling-in sophomores: These are the sort of fantasy all-stars you want to be drafting in your pools. And it just so happens we’ve assembled an entire roster of them.

The basis for making the “under-the-radar” fantasy all-star team is that, quite simply, these players will likely fall further than they should in your draft. That is either because they are unproven, playing for poor or overlooked teams, or coming off of a bad season. But those kinds of gambles are exactly what can win your pool – assuming you’re the only one sharp enough to buy this unbelievable magazine.

It’s also worth keeping in mind that, in recent years, the NHL has become a young man’s league. Teams are increasingly playing players who are 25-and-under in big minutes, which means the likes of Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov are able to suddenly explode and make a team like the Lightning an offensive juggernaut.

So be sure to enter your draft with a good handle on the burgeoning talents out there, even if many didn’t star for Canada (or the U.S.) at the world juniors and aren’t yet household names.

Forwards

Valeri Nichushkin, Dallas. He missed all but eight games of the season with a devastating hip injury that wiped out his 19-year-old season, but Nichuschkin provides a tantalizing mix of skill with opportunity on one of the best offensive teams in the league. If he’s fully recovered, and if he can get back on track after a year away, a spot on a top line with two of the most potent offensive players in the league (Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin) awaits. The payoff could be enormous, as he has the tools to be a star.

Teuvo Teravainen and Marko Dano, Chicago. Patrick Kane’s legal situation – which was unresolved at press time – aside, there’s going to be opportunity on the defending champs this season. Teravainen and Dano (the key piece they received from Columbus in the Brandon Saad trade) are great examples, as they could both slide into top six roles to start the year and surprise. That’s certainly what GM Stan Bowman is banking on given the way he’s remade his roster to squeeze under the cap.

Jonathan Huberdeau and Nick Bjugstad, Florida. You could even add another two or three names from the Panthers here. Florida was rather pathetic offensively last season (25th), but things began to click late in the year when they added NHL greybeard Jaromir Jagr to the top line with Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov. This is an organization that has been bad enough for long enough that they’ve accumulated some terrific young offensive talents; if several of them can put together breakout seasons at the same time, the Panthers could pile up far more goals than recent years. And they’re one of those teams often overlooked on draft day.

David Pastrnak, Boston. Even with the Bruins in disarray last season, the Czech rookie had an impressive North American debut. A better than point-a-game showing in the minors over 25 games turned into a nearly 50-point pace over a half season in the NHL. Now, minus Milan Lucic and with management attempting to get younger, he should be gifted more opportunity on a scoring line and be a key part of the Bruins attack.

Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington. The Capitals were the sixth highest scoring team in the NHL last season and could easily climb higher this time around, in large part thanks to better depth up front. Newcomers T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams are part of that, but what should make Washington a contender is the progress from their two burgeoning young weapons: Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky. Both showed well in Year 1, but Kuznetsov is the more enticing fantasy pick given he should be given a key role on the team’s second line and has game-breaking talent. His nearly 17 minutes a game in the postseason was proof positive the coaching staff was beginning to trust him with a bigger role.

Teemu Pulkkinen, Detroit. A fourth round pick in 2010, Pulkkinen has been forced to go the patented long, slow Red Wings route through the system. Last year, however, he dominated the AHL to the point it made no sense for him to even be there, with 48 goals in 62 games between the regular season and a dominant playoffs (14 goals in 16 games). Detroit could have used even a fraction of those goals last season; this time around, he’ll get more of a chance – and under his AHL coach no less. A bit of a wild card but one with some upside.

Jakob Silfverberg, Anaheim. After posting underwhelming totals in his first two seasons in Anaheim, the 24-year-old Swede put in a remarkable postseason, with 18 points in 16 games to cement a spot in the Ducks top six. Could mesh very well with countryman Carl Hagelin this season, too.

Nazem Kadri, Toronto. It’s going to be new coach Mike Babcock’s way or the highway in Toronto this year and that could go either way for Kadri, whose off-ice issues contributed heavily to the fact he signed only a one-year deal in the summer. The big question is if Tyler Bozak is traded either during training camp or early in the season, as that would free Kadri up to finally fill the first-line centre role, albeit without Phil Kessel there to help. Even without a trade, Kadri may get that chance. Either way, with more of a role on a power play, Kadri has 60-point potential. His 39 last year should be considered the low water mark, although this is a Leafs team that may not score a whole lot.

P-A Parenteau, Toronto. Parenteau is in a similar boat. He wasn’t well liked by his coach in either Colorado or Montreal, which limited his opportunities and offensive totals. But there’s a Kessel-sized hole on right wing with the Leafs, and Parenteau signed a bargain of a one-year deal there in order to try and cash in next July. If he produces, it benefits both parties, as Toronto can convert him into a pick or prospect at the deadline. Win-win.

Elias Lindholm, Carolina. A potential superstar who is going to breakthrough at some point. He nearly doubled his point totals last season even as the Hurricanes year went to hell in a hand basket, and Carolina is a dark horse of a rebound candidate given their all their unheralded young talent. Lindholm is still only 20 years old so his big leap may still be two or three years off. But it’s coming.

Sean Couturier, Philadelphia. Another young player with more to give offensively. It’s more a question of when than anything, and with Couturier, some of that is simply giving him less of an onerous defensive role and better linemates. But opportunity plays in, too, and he would easily break the 40-point barrier with more power play time. A new coach, with a better understanding of his gifts at the other end of the rink, could pay off for Couturier this year.

Tanner Pearson, Los Angeles. His season was completely derailed by injuries, but the key will be opportunity. It appears he’ll be right back in a second line role next season, and linemate Tyler Toffoli is set to breakout in a big way. The big question with Pearson is what exactly his ceiling is offensively, as he didn’t particularly dominate the AHL. Still, betting on 40 points and hoping for more is reasonable.

Mikael Granlund, Minnesota. The expectations are certainly for more than 40 points, especially given all his time on the top line with Zach Parise. But without top unit power play duty, Granlund isn’t likely to truly become an elite scorer. That said, he’s continued to make significant strides in his all-around game and should continue to be trusted with more minutes overall. If he’s healthy all year, topping 50 points should be a gimme.

Defencemen

Sami Vatanen, Anaheim. Vatanen missed 15 games and still finished 34th in scoring among defencemen in only his second NHL season. Prorated, he would have hit the 45-point mark. And that’s on a Ducks team that had the 28th ranked power play, despite loads of talent. Much of that was shooting percentage driven, which means Anaheim should pot more goals on the man advantage, which means good things for Vatanen, who could easily emerge as a top 10 quarterback this year.

Ryan Ellis, Nashville. Another young defenceman with similar offensive talent, Ellis’s main problem is he’s buried behind Shea Weber and Roman Josi and as a result is dealt second unit power play duties. Even so, he produced at a nearly 40-point pace last season and didn’t get there largely because of injury. At the very least, he’s going to produce more than six power play points this time around – especially if one of the big two misses any time.

Olli Maatta, Pittsburgh. No more Christian Ehrhoff. No more Paul Martin. The Penguins are going to be a dangerous offensive team with Kessel in the fold, and there’s loads of opportunity for some young defencemen. Maatta missed most of last season due to an awful run of injuries and illness, but he’s in line for huge minutes – potentially on the top pair with Kris Letang at even strength – and nearly double his power play workload with the other vets gone.

John Klingberg, Dallas. Klingberg already had his breakout and really should have been given more consideration for the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year last season. This time around, he won’t start the year in the AHL; he’ll be on the Stars top unit both at even strength and the power play. And while his on-ice shooting percentage may take a dip, repeating his 40 points with what should be a deadly Dallas attack seems highly likely. And 50-plus isn’t out of the question.

Morgan Rielly, Toronto. Buyer beware given the Leafs roster. But Rielly has been quietly evolving into an offensive threat even as the ceiling caved in (multiple times) in Toronto and turning him into an elite weapon will be near the top of Babcock’s to-do list. Finding ice time shouldn’t be a problem given the competition, and without Cody Franson around, Rielly should be on the top power play unit from the start.

Oscar Klefbom, Edmonton. If the Oilers are going to climb out of the abyss, they’re going to need some surprises on the back end. Klefbom seems to be the best candidate on that front, although whether or not he is given much time on the man advantage remains to be seen. A long shot to pile up points given he wasn’t exactly a huge producer in the minors, Klefbom nonetheless is worth keeping an eye on in deeper pools.

Goaltenders

Martin Jones, San Jose. The Sharks are gambling here. If you’re similarly in the mood for a roll of the dice, this isn’t a bad one. Jones has started only 29 NHL games in his career, and all of them were behind the Kings stifling defence, but he put in 3.5 really solid seasons in the AHL, and despite going undrafted, had a decent junior career. San Jose made a huge commitment giving him a three-year, $9-million deal, which means at the very least Jones is going to give you a lot of starts on what remains a decent team.

Petr Mrazek, Detroit. Mrazek wrested the No. 1 duties from Jimmy Howard late last season, which sets up an interesting duel this year for the crease. Howard has four years remaining on a deal with a cap hit of more than $5-million, so he’ll be the favourite to get more starts, but Mrazek’s got a strong pedigree, a relationship with the new coach and age on his side (at eight years younger). Don’t expect him to sit 55-plus games.

Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay. Ben Bishop has started 75 per cent of the Lightning’s games the last two seasons. In both years he has had at least 37 wins and a save percentage better than an average starter. So why take a flier on Vasilevskiy? For one, he’s a very good goalie, one of the best prospects at the position in the league. For another, he could take over as Tampa’s starter as early as 2016-17 given the organization’s cap crunch and Bishop’s pending UFA status. Add in Bishop’s injury history, and Vasilevskiy may get more of a look than many expect this season.

A contributor to McKeen’s Hockey in various roles for the last 14 years, James Mirtle covers the NHL for The Globe and Mail and is based in Toronto. You can find more of his work at jamesmirtle.com.

2015 NHL Playoffs: Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators

McKeen's Hockey — Wed, 15 Apr 2015 15:39:56 +0000

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators

The Chicago Blackhawks should be the odds on favorite to win their third Cup in five years with the monumental news that Patrick Kane has medical clearance to play in the first game of round one. The Hawks have the pedigree and confidence to go all the way, but they have played a lot of hockey in the past five seasons and you have to worry if they have enough as in the tank to go all the way. The real wild card for the Hawks has to be Kane and if his shoulder will allow him to play at his best. Often when an All-Star player returns from injury there is a bit of an exhale from the rest of the team, if either is the case it may be enough to tip the scale towards Nashville as the Hawks will have their hands full in the first round. Chicago is far from a one trick pony with Patrick Kane as we all know. He is Robin to Jonathan Toews Batman and the dynamic duo has a super supporting cast upfront with Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Brandon Saad, Antoine Vermette and Brad Richards. The blue line is another strength anchored by the Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook pair with Kimmo Timonen, Johnny Oduya, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Michal Rozsival forming arguably the best defence in the Western Conference if not the NHL. Corey Crawford has proven over and over that he is a legit starting goalie and provides confidence and stability in the crease as well. With the Hawks cap situation in the immediate future a cause for concern the players and management know that the window of opportunity is as wide as it can get with this roster and the Hawks should be hungry for that third Championship that would cement their legacy as a cap era dynasty.

The Nashville Predators are the first and possibly most formidable obstacle in Chicago’s path to a dynasty. The Preds were world beaters early on in the season led by their star goalie Pekka Rinne who was an early favorite for a Vezina Trophy. What the Preds lack in super-star forwards they make up for in goal and on defense. The team is led by Shea Weber who is one of the best defenseman in the world and is supported by Roman Josi, Seth Jones, Matias Ekholm Ryan Ellis, Cody Franson and Anton Volchenkov. They say you can never have enough D in the playoffs but the Preds depth on the blue line is very impressive. The offence is a score by committee group and will lean heavily on rookie sensation Filip Forsberg. While there is no elite scorer, there are plenty of legitimate offensive options in Mike Ribeiro, James Neal, Mike Fisher, and Craig Smith while players like Paul Gaustad, Calle Jarnkrok, Colin Wilson and Mike Santorelli provide excellent depth. It has been said that to win a Championship in the NHL you need an elite goalie and a stud defenseman or two. Well the Preds check both those boxes and their 2.77 goals per game offense is not too concerning to think they do not have a very good chance to usurp the Hawks as top contender in the West. This series should be hotly contested, very physical, very close and very entertaining!

Top Ten Nashville Predators

Filip Forsberg – Potential rookie of the year breakout performance will be relied on to score some big goals
Mike Ribeiro – A reclamation project paying dividends, has never been a playoff performer but has he finally figured it all out?
Shea Weber – The most important skater both offensively and defensively will attempt to lead this team out of the first round for the first time
James Neal – Was the “real deal” in Pittsburgh, can he recapture that offense without Malkin and Crosby?
Mike Fisher – Solid two-way player brings consistency in regular season and post season.
Craig Smith – Streaky scorer has led the Preds in scoring, can he find consistency in the playoffs?
Roman Josi – Swiss defender had a 50 point season, has to prove he can be a factor in the playoffs
Colin Wilson – Former seventh overall pick scored a 20-20 season, but can he do it in the playoffs?
Ryan Ellis – Former standout for Canada at World Juniors will be counted on for Power play production.
Seth Jones – the 18 year old rookie had 27 points and was a plus-3. He will only get better.

Top Ten Chicago Blackhawks

Patrick Kane – Getting Kane and his 0.98 career playoff PPG offense back for game one is huge.
Jonathan Toews – A proven winner who just keeps finding ways to get the job done.
Marian Hossa – The Hoss is one of the best two way forwards in the NHL and has incredible playoff experience.
Brandon Saad – Hossa lite is proving to be just as effective in the post season as he is in the regular season
Patrick Sharp – Showed signs during the season he may be slowing down, but is still a great fantasy option
Duncan Keith – Has Conn Smythe type impact for the Hawks
Brent Seabrook – plays in Keith’s shadow but is every bit as valuable and important to the Hawks
Antoine Vermette – Trade deadline acquisition dominates in faceoffs which will help with puck possession
Brad Richards – Playoff warrior was playoff MVP during Tampa Bays Cup win, still has enough game to be effective on the third line
Kimmo Timonen – 40 year old is looking for his first Cup, brings a win it for the Gipper mentality