Ryan Johansen – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Guentzel, Hertl, Tarasenko, Kuznetsov, Toffoli, Henrique & More

Scott Cullen — Sat, 09 Mar 2024 16:19:49 +0000

_{CALGARY, AB - APRIL 12: San Jose Sharks Center Tomas Hertl (48) looks on during the first period of an NHL game between the Calgary Flames and the San Jose Sharks on April 12, 2023, at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB. (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire)}

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

Following the biggest moves ahead of the NHL trade deadline, including Jake Guentzel, Tomas Hertl, Vladimir Tarasenko, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tyler Toffoli, Adam Henrique and much, much more!

#1 Perhaps the biggest name to be available at the deadline, Jake Guentzel was dealt from Pittsburgh to Carolina. The 29-year-old winger has recorded 385 points (181 G, 204 A) in 381 games across the past six seasons. Moving to Carolina probably isn’t an upgrade for Guentzel, even if it is a better team. It’s tough to land somewhere better than Sidney Crosby’s wing, after all. However, Guentzel is out of the lineup with an upper-body injury, though maybe not for too much longer. The timeline for the injury, when it occurred on February 14, was four weeks. While the Penguins landed a few prospects in the trade, they also got an established NHLer in Michael Bunting. A two-time 20-goal scorer, Bunting has 13 goals and 36 points in 60 games this season but is looking at the opportunity to skate on Sidney Crosby’s wing. For a player who is not shy about going to the net to clean up the garbage, it could be a good opportunity for Bunting to finish strong. At the very least, he is the player whose fantasy value for this season is most likely to benefit from this trade.

#2 In a move that dropped just before the deadline, the Vegas Golden Knights landed centre Tomas Hertl from the San Jose Sharks. While it is a big splash kind of move that could have an impact on the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Hertl is still recovering from knee surgery. Reports have said that he is ahead of schedule and could be back before the end of the regular season, but that uncertain timeline does not make Hertl especially valuable for fantasy managers. If that timeline changes, well, that could change Hertl’s fantasy appeal.

#3 At 32 years old, Vladimir Tarasenko is no longer the premier sniper that he was in his best days with the St. Louis Blues. However, he could have a prime opportunity in Florida, where he could fit alongside Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart on the top line. With 33 even strength points, Tarasenko is tied for 78th in the NHL this season, and if he sticks on Florida’s top line, those numbers should get even better. With Tarasenko departing Ottawa, Mathieu Joseph looks like he will slide into a role in the Senators’ top six, a decent opportunity for a winger who has tied his career high with 30 points (10 G, 20 A) in 50 games.

#4 Evgeny Kuznetsov’s stay in the American Hockey League was brief as the Washington Capitals traded their veteran centre to the Carolina Hurricanes. Kuznetsov, 31, is having a miserable season with just 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in 43 games. The Capitals were outscored 27-14 at five-on-five with Kuznetsov on the ice, so it is not surprising that they were looking for a way to get out from under the rest of his contract, which expires after next season. He should have a chance to fit as Carolina’s second-line centre, where his competition is really Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Jack Drury, neither of whom has made a strong claim on the position. Kuznetsov is at least worth consideration as a longshot type of pickup. With Kuznetsov departing, the Capitals are now prepared to run with Hendrix Lapierre, Connor McMichael, and Dylan Strome down the middle of the ice.

#5 Across the past two seasons, right winger Tyler Toffoli has scored 60 goals, tied for 28th in the league. The New Jersey Devils were not disappointed in Toffoli’s production but their team was under-performing and they could not justify keeping Toffoli. That works out to the benefit of the Winnipeg Jets, who bring in this proven veteran scoring winger, which will further enhance Winnipeg’s scoring depth. He probably slides next to recently acquired centre Sean Monahan on the second line and slumping sophomore Cole Perfetti could get moved further down the lineup.

#6 The Colorado Avalanche were busy leading up to the deadline, and that included making two deals that involved defencemen and centres. The Avs dealt defenceman Bowen Byram to the Buffalo Sabres for centre Casey Mittelstadt. Byram was the fourth pick in the 2019 Draft and despite his obvious skill level, he has also been hampered by concussions early in his career. Nevertheless, he has shown great flashes of talent and played nearly 25 minutes in his Sabres debut Thursday, recording a goal and an assist. He will fall behind Rasmus Dahlin when it comes to quarterbacking the power play, but if Byram is going to get big minutes in Buffalo and can stay healthy, then he will be able to surpass what he has produced in his career to this point. Mittelstadt has stepped into a bigger role this season, playing a career-high 18:16 per game and contributing 47 points (14 G, 33 A) in 62 games. He should slide into a second-line centre role with the Avalanche and that could be a positive once Colorado gets fully healthy, with Valeri Nichushkin nearing his return to action. Mittelstadt’s departure could open the door for Dylan Cozens to possibly see a little more ice time down the middle for the Sabres.

#7 Another Avalanche trade saw them deal centre Ryan Johansen to Philadelphia along with a first-round pick for defenseman Sean Walker. The Flyers are apparently not interested in Johansen and have demoted him to the American Hockey League, and Walker will be a strong third-pairing option on the Colorado blueline, behind Cale Makar and Josh Manson on the right side. Walker has the ability to contribute offensively, but his role in Colorado does not immediately suggest that will be part of the expectations. With Walker leaving Philadelphia, Egor Zamula should see more minutes on the Philadelphia blue line. He played 20:20 at Florida on Thursday night, the third time all season that he logged more than 20 minutes in a game.

#8 The Edmonton Oilers continued to improve their forward depth by adding Adam Henrique and Sam Carrick in a deal with the Anaheim Ducks. Carrick is a fourth-line depth addition with little to no fantasy appeal, but Henrique is a six-time 20-goal scorer who is looking at the possibility of skating on Leon Draisaitl’s wing, which is a better situation than he had in Anaheim. At the same time, Henrique becomes more of a supporting piece in Edmonton. If he’s productive, he could be a prominent supporting piece, but Edmonton has a lot of forwards who are capable of contributing secondary offence behind the superstars.

#9 Before they even ventured to acquire Tomas Hertl from San Jose, the Vegas Golden Knights already brought in winger Anthony Mantha from the Washington Capitals and defenceman Noah Hanifin from the Calgary Flames. Mantha has run hot and cold in his career but had already tallied 20 goals in 56 games for Washington, the first time that he had hit that threshold since 2018-2019. While Mark Stone remains out, there is still a good opportunity for Mantha to fill a right-wing spot in Vegas’ top six, potentially on the flank of Hertl once he is healthy. In any case, Mantha could see his ice time decrease in Vegas, but the quality of his linemates will most likely offset that decrease. The thing to be wary of with Mantha is that his shot rate is down quite a bit this season, to 1.58 shots per game, but he has been scoring on 22.2 percent of his shots, a rate that is not likely to last, but maybe Mantha can elevate his shot rate because he was a much more prolific shooter just a few years ago. Mantha’s departure does open up more ice time in Washington, and maybe someone like Aliaksei Protas is going to be a late-season sleeper for fantasy managers. Hanifin has been a steady and productive blueliner for Calgary and that will likely continue in Vegas. He is not going to have a prominent role on the power play so long as Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo are in the lineup, so that does put a limit on Hanifin’s fantasy ceiling.

#10 The red-hot Nashville Predators might not have been buyers a month ago but after winning nine of their past ten games, they added a couple of forwards before the deadline, getting Jason Zucker from Arizona and Anthony Beauvillier from Chicago. Beauvillier is having the worst season of his career, with just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 45 games, but he has scored at least 18 goals in four seasons. He may get a look in a middle six role with Nashville but it is far too soon to put any real expectations on him. Zucker offers more upside. He had 25 points (9 G, 16 A) in 51 games for Arizona but is a six-time 20-goal scorer who should fit comfortably in a top-six role with Nashville. That might increase Zucker’s value a little, but his value will lie in deeper leagues.

#11 Still battling to secure a playoff spot, the Tampa Bay Lightning bolstered their roster by getting winger Anthony Duclair from San Jose and defenceman Matt Dumba from Arizona. Duclair has had a mediocre season in San Jose but was heating up before the deadline, tallying 10 points (7 G, 3 A) with 24 shots on goal in his last eight games for the Sharks. He is a three-time 20-goal scorer who has 27 points (16 G, 11 A) in 56 games this season. In Tampa Bay, he should fit in a second-line role and while he might see his ice time dip, that should be offset somewhat by higher-quality linemates. Duclair’s departure from San Jose will help ensure that forwards like Fabian Zetterlund, Filip Zadina, and William Eklund continue in prominent roles down the stretch. That still might not be enough for them to have value in most fantasy leagues. It has been a few seasons since Dumba had much fantasy value and he has just 10 points (4 G, 6 A) in 58 games this season. It’s conceivable that Dumba would get second-unit power play time for Tampa Bay, but Darren Raddysh could still hold that spot, so Dumba is not a big draw for fantasy managers.

#12 Trying to bolster a team that they believe to be a championship contender, the New York Rangers acquired centre Alex Wennberg from the Seattle Kraken and right winger Jack Roslovic from the Columbus Blue Jackets. Wennberg is a natural fit as a third-line centre, filling the role that had been occupied by Filip Chytil before concussion woes put him on the shelf. Wennberg had 25 points (9 G, 16 A) in 60 games for the Kraken this season, which is not enough to draw interest from fantasy managers. Roslovic had a modest 23 points (6 G, 17 A) in 40 games for Columbus, but he was on a tear, with 13 points (4 G, 9 A) and 44 shots on goal in his last 12 games for the Blue Jackets. He could be an intriguing option if he gets a shot alongside Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider on one of the Rangers’ top-scoring lines. With Roslovic leaving Columbus, recently acquired winger Alex Nylander should have a more secure spot in a scoring role with the Blue Jackets for the rest of the season.

#13 Goaltending has been a massive problem for the New Jersey Devils this season and they chose the trade deadline, which might be too late, as the time to address it. The Devils brought in Jake Allen from Montreal then traded goaltender Vitek Vanecek to acquire Kaapo Kahkonen from San Jose. Allen had a .875 save percentage in his last nine appearances for Montreal, so he is hardly a sure thing as the solution in net for the Devils. Kahkonen had a .895 save percentage in 31 games for the Sharks, but considering the quality of shots that the Sharks surrendered he did have 0.51 Goals Saved Above Expected during five-on-five play, so there are at least hints of positive performance there that could work behind a Devils team that, for all of its defensive concerns, is not as bad as the Sharks.

#14 After two-plus seasons of subpar performance as the starting goaltender for the Seattle Kraken, it appears that Philipp Grubauer has found his form. He struggled again at the start of this season before getting hurt in December. While he was out, Joey Daccord performed well, but as Daccord’s performance has fallen off, Grubauer has been reclaiming the Kraken crease. Since returning from injury, Grubauer has appeared in seven games and has a .943 save percentage. Since the All-Star break, Sergei Bobrovsky (.946) and Igor Shesterkin (.945) are the only goaltenders to appear in at least five games and have a better save percentage than Grubauer. The question is whether Grubauer can continue at a high level, which has not been standard for him since joining the Kraken.

#15 The Carolina Hurricanes have been playing well and it seems that their biggest concern down the stretch will be goaltending. The hope is that the return of starter Frederik Andersen, who started in Thursday’s 4-1 win against Montreal, will help stabilize the position. Andersen stopped 24 of 25 shots in his return to action. Pyotr Kochetkov has stepped up his game, too, posting a .927 save percentage in 14 games since Christmas.

#16 Dallas Stars centre Wyatt Johnston had a strong rookie campaign in 2022-2023, scoring 41 points (24 G, 17 A) in 82 games, finishing fifth in Calder Trophy voting. He has been given a jolt by the Stars calling up winger Logan Stankoven, who has put up eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal in his first six games. Johnston had a five-point night in Tuesday’s 7-6 overtime win against San Jose, giving him 24 points (11 G, 13 A) with 78 shots on goal in his past 23 games.

#17 Arizona Coyotes winger Matias Maccelli, who finished just ahead of Johnston in the Calder Trophy voting last season, continues to put up points, even on a bad Coyotes team. Maccelli has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) with 23 shots on goal in his past 11 games. He is skating on Arizona’s second line, alongside veterans Nick Bjugstad and Alex Kerfoot. Coyotes veteran Nick Schmaltz remains with the club past the trade deadline and he has been heating up. He has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 21 shots on goal in his past eight games. He is skating on Arizona’s top line with Clayton Keller and Barrett Hayton.

#18 Since the All-Star break, there have been 20 defencemen that have recorded at least 10 points and while that group includes many of the usual suspects, it also includes Torey Krug, Gustav Forsling, Travis Sanheim, Bowen Byram, Noah Hanifin, Mike Matheson, and Ryan McDonagh.

#19 Although Buffalo Sabres centre Tage Thompson has not scored anywhere near his breakout season last year when he scored 47 goals and 94 points, he is showing some signs that he could be ready to break out. Thompson has just 35 points (18 G, 17 A) in 53 games, but he has generated 59 shots on goal in 14 games since the All-Star break. Players who are putting more than four shots on goal per game tend to find their way to the scoresheet with some consistency.

#20 As the season has slipped away from the New Jersey Devils, it appears that Timo Meier is finally coming alive. He has nine points (6 G, 3 A) and 22 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. It’s about time, and he is on a quality two-way line along with Nico Hischier and Ondrej Palat. Maybe the next project for the Devils will be getting Alexander Holtz on track. The 22-year-old winger has just one point (1 G, 0 A) in 16 games since the All-Star break.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (January 15th – January 21st) – Bedard injury impact – Teams and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 15 Jan 2024 15:26:50 +0000

Florida Panthers center Sam Reinhart (13 (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

It would have been an exaggeration to say Connor Bedard was running away with the Calder Trophy before he suffered a fractured jaw last Friday -- after all defenseman Brock Faber is having an amazing season in Minnesota -- but it was at least fair to think of him as the frontrunner. Chicago is undergoing a classic rebuild, which began with a fire sale that even saw the Blackhawks trade the still-young Alex DeBrincat in 2022 with an eye toward starting fresh through the draft.

Phase One of that was a success -- the Blackhawks got their man in Bedard, who has been the subject of intense hype that he’s largely lived up to with 15 goals and 33 points in 39 outings. The fact that he’s set to miss the next six-to-eight weeks after undergoing surgery will cost him a chance to play in his first All-Star Game, it might rob him of the Calder Trophy and of course on top of that, you just never want to see someone get hurt. However, underneath all that lies another truth: For as great as Bedard has been, his absence won’t change much in Chicago.

The Blackhawks are just frankly too bad to make any use of Bedard. Sure, they’re even worse without him, but Chicago was so close to the bottom as it was, that there isn’t much further to fall.

Injuries have certainly played a role in that. On top of Bedard, Chicago was also without Andreas Athanasiou (groin), Anthony Beauvillier (wrist), Nick Foligno (finger), Taylor Hall (knee), Tyler Johnson (foot) and Seth Jones (shoulder) when it faced Winnipeg on Thursday. It would have been interesting to see what the Blackhawks might have been had they stayed healthy, but the reality is they were unlikely to contend either way.

You might even argue that this is in some ways better for the team’s future. Rather than end up with, say the 10th overall pick had the Blackhawks stayed healthy, they might receive another No. 1 selection. That would certainly help their rebuild.

At the same time, there are dangers to that mentality. Building a winning culture is tough and the clock to do that started the moment they drafted Bedard. The Blackhawks have two more seasons with him at an entry-level deal and after that, if his first 39 games were any indication, he’s likely to get a massive payday. Connor McDavid jumped straight from his entry-level contract to a $12.5 million cap hit, Jack Eichel went to $10 million while Matthews ascended to roughly $11.6 million. Bedard still has a lot to prove, but he has the potential to be that caliber of player, and if he continues to grow as Chicago hopes, then he will not be at a discounted salary for long.

Of course, Bedard getting a big payday isn’t the end of the world. Chicago can still build around him at that point, albeit with some more difficulty, but these things can sneak up on you and a slow burn rebuild runs the risk of ending with a failure to launch, as the Sabres experienced with Eichel and Ottawa is now in danger of with its core of Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk and Jakob Chychrun. The Blackhawks can write off this year and just hope for another win in the draft lottery, but as early as next season, they’ll want to start showing some progress.

Anaheim Ducks – MON @ FLA, TUE @ WAS (BTB), SAT @ SJS, SUN VS NYR (BTB)

The Ducks will begin the week on the road with games against the Panthers on Monday, the Capitals on Tuesday and the Sharks on Saturday. They’ll then return to Anaheim to host the Rangers on Sunday. It’s not an easy schedule overall, but the Sharks are one of the worst teams in the NHL while Washington has been something of a mixed bag.

The Ducks made waves by acquiring Cutter Gauthier from Philadelphia on Monday in exchange for Jamie Drysdale and a 2025 second-round pick. Gauthier has tremendous potential and is having a great campaign with Boston College, scoring 13 goals and 23 points through 17 NCAA contests as a sophomore, and he was named the best forward of the 2024 World Juniors, helping Team USA win gold by supplying two goals and a team-high 12 points in seven games. Ducks’ fans should be happy with that trade, but in the short term, Gauthier will remain with Boston, and the Ducks’ current roster is worse off without Drysdale.

Anaheim’s defense was stretched even thinner when Pavel Mintyukov suffered a separated shoulder Tuesday that’s projected to shelve him for six weeks. With Drysdale gone and Mintyukov unavailable, Urho Vaakanainen has suddenly found himself in a top-four role. The 25-year-old has averaged just 16:17 of ice time this season, but he logged 22:26 in Tuesday’s 5-3 win over Nashville. Vaakanainen hasn’t been a great fantasy option this campaign with seven assists, 13 hits and 31 blocks in 33 outings, but if you’re in a deeper league, you should take note of his dramatically increased role.

Cam Fowler is averaging 25:12 with Anaheim this year, so he can’t be leaned on much more than he already is, but the Ducks might deploy him even more on the power play -- he's currently logging 2:30 per game in that regard -- and Jackson LaCombe might become a regular with the man advantage as well after getting 4:27 of power-play ice time Tuesday. LaCombe has just six assists in 37 contests in 2023-24, but the 23-year-old did excel with the University of Minnesota, contributing 12 goals and 65 points in 76 games over his final two NCAA seasons, so he’s worth keeping an eye on to see what he does with this opportunity.

Buffalo Sabres – MON VS SJS, WED VS CHI, SAT VS TBL

Buffalo will stay at home next week, hosting the Sharks on Monday, the Blackhawks on Wednesday and the Lightning on Saturday. I’m highlighting Buffalo over some teams with four games because it’s facing the two worst squads in the NHL in San Jose and Chicago, which creates some juicy opportunities, especially for the Sabres’ forward corps.

Unfortunately, Jeff Skinner (upper body) isn’t going to be around to take advantage of those upcoming contests. Tage Thompson (undisclosed) is also in doubt after exiting Thursday’s 5-3 win over Ottawa, though coach Don Granato told Matthew Fairburn of The Athletic after the contest that he thinks Thompson will be okay, so perhaps the elite forward will still be an option next week.

Regardless, this might be a good week for Jack Quinn. After scoring 14 goals and 37 points in 75 contests as a rookie last season, he missed the first two months of the 2023-24 campaign while recovering from Achilles surgery. Quinn returned Dec. 19 and while his four goals and six points through 10 outings isn’t amazing, it’s a solid start. He’s also averaging 16:20 of ice time this year, up from 13:51 as a rookie, and given his potential, the 22-year-old should take advantage of the increased responsibilities, especially given the quality of Buffalo’s upcoming adversaries.

This might also be a good week to grab Devon Levi or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen if either is available. While neither is having a great season, you don’t have to be an elite goaltender to beat Chicago (2.29 goals per game) or San Jose (2.00). The duo is likely to split the two starts.

Colorado Avalanche – MON @ MTL, TUE @ OTT, THU @ BOS, SAT @ PHI

The Avalanche have a full four-game set ahead of them, though they will spend the full week on the road, playing in Montreal on Monday, Ottawa on Tuesday, Boston on Thursday and Philadelphia on Saturday. While an extended road trip is far from ideal, it does help that neither of the first two opponents -- the Canadiens and Senators -- is in a playoff position.

If you’ve been holding onto Ryan Johansen in the hopes he’ll eventually rebound, it’s likely time to drop him. While Johansen has had his moments with Colorado, he has 11 goals and just 16 points through 42 games and his playing time is trending in the wrong direction. The 31-year-old logged a season-low 9:34 against Vegas on Wednesday, making it his fourth straight contest with under 14 minutes logged. He’s averaged 13:58 in 2023-24 and just 12:42 over his last 10 appearances.

One of Colorado’s other free agent gambles from the summer of 2023 is paying off, though. Jonathan Drouin is red hot with six goals and 14 points in his past 14 games. In contrast to Johansen, Drouin’s responsibilities with the Avalanche have grown to the point where he’s on the first line and top power-play unit. As long as Drouin maintains a spot alongside Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon, he should continue to be a steady offensive presence.

Dallas Stars – TUE VS LAK, THU @ PHI, SAT @ NJD, SUN @ NYI (BTB)

Dallas will open the week by hosting the Kings before visiting Philadelphia on Thursday, New Jersey on Saturday and the Islanders on Sunday. None of those are easy games, so this is a bit of a borderline team to highlight, but the 24-11-5 Stars can contend against any adversary.

The Stars are also on the brink of getting a huge boost with the return of Jake Oettinger (lower body), who might even return before next week’s set. Scott Wedgewood has been a mixed bag, but ultimately his 3.03 GAA and .887 save percentage in 12 outings since Oettinger suffered the injury Dec. 15 is simply not good enough to alter how Dallas will handle how it handles the goaltending situation once Oettinger returns. In other words, Oettinger will be leaned heavily on, and if you picked up Wedgewood to collect extra starts, it will soon be time to replace him.

In contrast, Mason Marchment has a great chance to remain effective next week. He’s been outstanding recently, providing three goals and 11 points over his last six games to bring him up to 13 goals and 32 points through 40 appearances in 2023-24. The 28-year-old has been somewhat streaky this campaign, so you’ll need to exercise some caution with him, but he should remain an effective forward overall.

His linemate Tyler Seguin is on a roll as well, scoring six goals and nine points over his last six contests. If you have him, though, it might be time to start exploring the possibility of selling high if you can find a taker. He’s having a strong campaign with 16 goals and 32 points in 40 outings, but of course, those numbers have been pumped up by his recent hot streak and his 18.6 shooting percentage this season is unlikely to be sustained -- his career average is 11.0.

Florida Panthers – MON VS ANA, WED VS DET, FRI VS MIN

The Panthers will play just three games next week, but all those contests will be at home. They’ll face the Ducks on Monday, the Red Wings on Wednesday and the Wild on Friday. Detroit is a tough opponent, but the Wild are in a freefall, losing six of their last seven games while being outscored 11-2 over their last two contests and Anaheim is near the league’s basement.

Sam Reinhart has never scored more than 33 goals in a single season, but at this rate, the 28-year-old might set a new career high before the All-Star break. He’s contributed at least one goal in five straight games and eight of his last nine outings, totaling 12 markers in that span. Reinhart’s goal in Thursday’s 3-2 overtime win over LA was his 30th of the campaign, putting him behind just Auston Matthews’ 33 in the goal-scoring race.

It remains to be seen if Reinhart can sustain this, though. His shooting percentage of 27.5 is by far the highest of any player with at least 100 shots -- next is Brock Boeser at 23.3 -- and more than double his 2022-23 finish of 13.7. Digging a little deeper, Reinhart is selective with when he shoots, firing 40.4 percent in high-danger areas. By contrast, Nikita Kucherov has nearly the same number of goals (28) while firing nearly double the shots (amounting to a 15.4 shooting percentage), but just 18.1 percent of his shots are in high-danger locations, so by that measure, Reinhart’s higher shooting percentage makes some sense.

Reinhart’s shooting percentage, if maintained, would go down as the highest of the salary cap era (min. 100 shots) and the best since Rob Brown and Craig Simpson in 1988-89, so some regression has to be expected, but given how the Panthers forward plays, that shooting percentage isn’t as big a red flag as it might otherwise be.

Meanwhile, Florida’s other Sam, Bennett, isn’t having nearly as good of a year with seven goals and 14 points across 28 outings, but he’s been effective recently with three goals and five points in six games, so he’s worthy of a short-term pickup if he’s available.

New Jersey Devils – MON @ BOS, WED VS MTL, FRI @ CBJ, SAT VS DAL

New Jersey will open the week in Boston on Monday before traveling back home to host the Canadiens on Wednesday. The Devils will then play in Columbus on Friday and host the Stars on Saturday. Boston and Dallas are tough adversaries, but that’s counterbalanced by the games against Montreal and Columbus -- neither of which is in a playoff position.

Injuries have become the story of the Devils’ 2023-24 campaign with Ondrej Palat (lower body) and Jack Hughes (upper body) becoming the latest victims. Neither is likely to return next week, and Timo Meier (abdomen) might not factor into the upcoming contests either.

Michael McLeod is getting an increased role due to the injuries. Although he’s averaged 14:42 of ice time this year, McLeod logged 18:14 on Saturday and followed that up with 17:46 on Thursday. The 25-year-old also has three goals and four points over his past four contests, so he’s hot at an opportune time.

Erik Haula has also seen his playing time jump, and he’s even seeing time with the man advantage, which hasn’t been a role the 32-year-old has held with any regularity this year. Haula has a goal and five points over his last four games while averaging 20:12 of ice time (his season average is 16:02), so he’s not a bad pickup while the Devils are missing some key forwards.

New York Islanders – MON @ MIN, TUE @ WPG, FRI @ CHI, SUN VS DAL

The Islanders will begin the week on the road with contests in Minnesota on Monday, Winnipeg on Tuesday and Chicago on Friday. They’ll then host the Stars on Sunday. Given the Wild’s recent struggles and the sorry state of the Blackhawks, this is a decent schedule, even after factoring in the tougher matches versus Winnipeg and Dallas.

If Semyon Varlamov (lower body) isn’t able to return before Tuesday’s contest against Winnipeg, then Ken Appleby might make his Islanders debut. The 28-year-old goaltender has a 2.88 GAA and an .897 save percentage in 11 contests with AHL Bridgeport this year, so he’s not an ideal option, but the Jets are vulnerable without Kyle Connor (knee) and might also be without Mark Scheifele, who left Thursday’s outing versus Chicago because of a lower-body injury. If Scheifele ends up missing that game too and Appleby is poised to start, then the goaltender might be a decent situational pickup.

It also helps that Appleby would likely receive solid goal support from Mathew Barzal. The Islanders forward is on fire, collecting two goals and nine points over his last five appearances. As long as he can stay healthy, Barzal could surpass his career high of 85 points, which was established in his rookie campaign.

Ottawa Senators – TUE VS COL, THU VS MTL, SAT VS WPD, SUN @ PHI (BTB)

The Senators get to spend most of the week in Ottawa, hosting the Avalanche on Tuesday, the Canadiens on Thursday and the Jets on Saturday. They’ll then finish the week with a game in Philadelphia on Sunday. The three home games are what help make the Senators’ schedule worth mentioning. Ottawa has a 4-13-0 record on the road but is an okay 10-10-0 at home.

I mentioned at the top of the article that the Senators have had a failure to launch. Despite a talented young core, Ottawa is on track to miss the playoffs for the seventh straight year. Replacing bench boss D.J. Smith with Jacques Martin has done nothing -- the squad is 3-8-0 since the coaching change. However, Martin has mostly coached the Senators on the road and as noted above, the team does tend to be at least decent at home.

Brady Tkachuk is one of the most dramatic examples of that shift. He has 11 goals and 19 points in 20 home contests compared to six markers and 10 points in 17 away games, so look for Tkachuk in particular to have a strong week. Josh Norris missed Thursday’s game versus Buffalo due to an upper-body injury, but if he’s healthy next week, then he might also be effective. He has eight goals and 14 points in 18 outings in Ottawa versus just four goals and six points in 15 road appearances.

DADOUN: THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – Skinner becoming key to Oilers fortunes – Value to be had on the Ducks, Hawks, Avalanche, Wings, Kings, Wild, Penguins, and Leafs

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 16 Dec 2023 15:06:07 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - NOVEMBER 13: Edmonton Oilers Goalie Stuart Skinner (74) makes a save in the second period of the Edmonton Oilers game versus the New York Islanders on November 13, 2023 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

The Edmonton Oilers saw their eight-game winning streak come to an end Thursday in a 7-4 defeat to Tampa Bay. After their remarkable resurgence, it’s hard to be too critical of the Oilers, though it did underscore the team’s vulnerability: Goaltending.

Not to undersell the importance of Connor McDavid in Edmonton’s 11-3-0 run from Nov. 11-Dec. 12 -- the superstar forward scored eight goals and 28 points over that 14-game stretch, so he clearly did his part -- but Edmonton’s success this year will likely be determined in no small part by Stuart Skinner.

When the sky seemed to be falling in Edmonton early this season, Skinner posted a 1-5-1 record, 3.87 GAA and .854 save percentage in eight appearances. When all seemed to be fixed from Nov. 11-Dec. 12, Skinner went 10-2-0 with a 2.30 GAA and a .914 save percentage. On Thursday, he allowed five goals on 22 shots.

Skinner might bounce right back, and the Oilers need him to. Jack Campbell posted a 4.50 GAA and an .873 save percentage in five contests with Edmonton to start the campaign, leading him to be moved to AHL Bakersfield where he has an uninspiring 3.22 GAA and .894 save percentage in nine outings, so he’s probably not a viable alternative. Maybe Calvin Pickard is. The 31-year-old has done fine in limited play, posting a 1-1-0 record, 2.24 GAA and .917 save percentage in three contests, but he has a career 3.02 GAA and .904 save percentage in 119 outings, so it’s probably best not to bet on him being good for anything more than the occasional start.

Edmonton’s terrible start to the campaign also means that it’s just 13-13-1, even after winning eight straight, so the Oilers still aren’t done digging themselves out of their hole, though they’ve certainly made a lot of positive progress over the last month and, if Skinner plays well, they’re likely to enjoy continued success going forward.

Anaheim Ducks – MON @ DET, THU VS CGY, SAT VS SEA

The Ducks might not have been featured on a busier week, but with no games scheduled Dec. 24 due to the Christmas break, not many teams have four-game schedules. Meanwhile, the Ducks will play in Detroit on Monday before hosting Calgary and Seatle on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. Given the Flames and the Kraken’s struggles this year, those are winnable contests, even for a struggling team like Anaheim.

Trevor Zegras (lower body) also appears to be close to returning, so the Ducks might have him for the upcoming week. He had just a goal and two points in 12 contests before being shut down Nov. 12, but the injury was bothering him before he was shelved, so that might be the reason for his slow start, and the 22-year-old could play more like himself upon returning. For that reason, Zegras should be considered a good buy-low candidate.

It remains to be seen how the Ducks will adjust their lines when Zegras returns, but I expect Leo Carlsson to maintain his top-six role. The 18-year-old has earned his spot, providing eight goals and 14 points in 20 contests. I could see Adam Henrique losing some time -- he's also someone the Ducks will likely look to trade closer to the deadline -- but he has three goals over his last five outings, so perhaps Anaheim will at least keep utilizing him while he’s hot.

With that in mind, the hardest hit when Zegras returns could be Ryan Strome. He has three goals and 17 points in 27 contests this season while averaging 16:02 of ice time, but he’s already seen his role slide as of late -- he's logged under 16 minutes in each of his last six contests -- and that slide might continue.

Chicago Blackhawks – TUE VS COL, FRI VS MTL, SAT @ STL (BTB)

The Blackhawks are set to play at home all week, facing the Avalanche on Tuesday, the Canadiens on Friday and the Blues on Saturday. Colorado naturally figures to be a tough matchup, but St. Louis and Montreal are hovering around .500 PTS%.

There unfortunately isn’t a lot of value to be had with the Blackhawks, right now. I’ve been disappointed by Anthony Beauvillier, who has seen his playing time tick up since being acquired by Chicago from Vancouver, but nevertheless has just a goal and an assist in seven games with the Blackhawks. I do still think there’s potential there, so I’d recommend keeping an eye on him, but I’m less optimistic about the trade helping his production than I initially was.

Lukas Reichel has underwhelmed too, recording just two goals and six points in 28 contests this season. He did log 15:18 of ice time Thursday, which was his most this month, but he was also minus-2 with just one shot in Chicago’s 7-1 loss to Seattle. At this point, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the 21-year-old sent to the minors to work on his game and confidence but keep in mind that this rough stretch doesn’t alter the fact that he has tremendous potential.

For now, though, about the only Blackhawks player worthy of significant fantasy consideration in standard leagues outside of Connor Bedard is Philipp Kurashev. The 24-year-old has six goals and 16 points in 23 contests this year while regularly playing alongside Bedard.

Colorado Avalanche – TUE @CHI, THU VS OTT, SAT VS ARI

The Avalanche will begin the week with a road game against the lowly Blackhawks on Tuesday followed by home contests versus the Senators on Thursday and the Coyotes on Saturday. Of those squads, just Arizona is in a playoff position, and even then, only barely.

Nathan MacKinnon is one of the hottest players in the league right now. He’s on an incredible 13-game scoring streak (six goals, 21 points) and has been especially effective over his last five games, scoring four goals and 10 points. That brings the 28-year-old up to 12 goals and 41 points through 29 appearances this season, putting him on track to narrowly surpass the career high of 111 points that he established last year.

In terms of a hot player who has flown a little more under the radar, Sam Malinski has a goal and four points over his last four contests. The 25-year-old defenseman was summoned from AHL Colorado on Nov. 29 and has averaged just 13:39 of ice time with the Avalanche in 2023-24, including almost no work on the power play, which makes his recent production all the more impressive. Malinski might be a decent short-term option, but I don’t expect him to stay noteworthy offensively for much longer. He does have that element of his game, recording three goals and nine points in 17 AHL outings this campaign, but he’s just not going to get many opportunities with the Avalanche as long as their defense is relatively healthy.

Outside of that, keep an eye on Ryan Johansen. He has nine goals and 11 points in 29 contests this season, which makes him a disappointment with Colorado thus far, but after averaging a modest 12:15 over 11 contests from Nov. 18-Dec. 7, he’s logged at least 14 minutes in two of his last three games and seeing time on the second line, so perhaps something will come of that.

Detroit Red Wings – MON VS ANA, WED @WPG, FRI VS PHI, SAT @ NJD (BTB)

One of the rare teams set to play four games next week, Detroit will host the Ducks on Monday before kicking off a road trip that will send them to Winnipeg on Wednesday, Philadelphia on Friday and New Jersey on Saturday.

Although the Red Wings now have Patrick Kane, Detroit is missing Dylan Larkin (upper body), J.T. Compher (undisclosed) and David Perron (suspension). Perron isn’t eligible to return until next Friday against the Flyers, though he is appealing the suspension so it’s possible he’ll be back sooner. Compher is day-to-day at this point and likely to return Saturday versus Philadelphia, while Larkin skated Thursday, giving fans some hope that he won’t be out for long.

With at least Compher expected to play next week, Andrew Copp, who has logged 19:45 over his last three contests while contributing two assists, might see his playing time reduced. Compher will likely play alongside Michael Rasmussen and Patrick Kane in his return.

Speaking of Rasmussen, the 24-year-old forward has seen his usage rise recently. Although he’s averaging 15:20 this year, he’s jumped to 16:45 over his last four contests. That comes amid a larger hot streak for the 24-year-old, who has five goals and eight points over his past seven appearances.

Los Angeles Kings – TUE@SJS, WED @SEA (BTB), SAT VS CGY

The Kings are scheduled to stay in LA next week, hosting the Sharks on Tuesday, the Kraken on Wednesday and the Flames on Saturday. None of those squads are in a playoff position, so the 16-6-4 Kings have an opportunity to rebound after losing three straight from Dec. 9-13.

Cam Talbot has been dominant with a 12-5-2 record, 2.02 GAA and .927 save percentage in 19 contests this year, but with a back-to-back set upcoming, Pheonix Copley should be penciled in to play in one of the Kings’ next two contests. Copley is 4-1-2 with a 3.17 GAA and an .870 save percentage in eight appearances this season, so he’s left plenty to be desired, but Seattle ranks 29th offensively this year with 2.57 goals per contest, so if he gets the start Wednesday, which is the most probable scenario, then he might still be worth grabbing for the situational start.

Los Angeles has scored just five goals over its last three games, so most of its players haven’t stood out recently, but Alex Laferriere did find the back of the net Wednesday. It was just the rookie’s third goal and fifth point in 25 contests this season, but what’s noteworthy is he also logged 3:13 of power-play ice time, by far his most since October. Monitor the situation to see if Los Angeles continues to give him an opportunity with the man advantage. While Laferriere hasn’t done much this season, he does have offensive upside after scoring 21 goals and 42 points in 34 games with Harvard in 2022-23.

Minnesota Wild - MON @ PIT, TUE @BOS (BTB), THU VS MTL, SAT VS BOS

The Wild have won six of their last eight games after earning a 3-2 shootout victory over Calgary on Thursday, so they’ll look to carry that momentum as they look ahead to a busy week. They’ll play in Pittsburgh on Monday and Buffalo on Tuesday before returning home to host the Canadiens on Thursday and the Bruins on Saturday. Not an easy lineup, but there isn’t much in the way of teams playing four games next week, so Minnesota got highlighted for that alone.

Filip Gustavsson has been a standout performer recently, posting a 5-1-0 record, 1.33 GAA and .950 save percentage over his last six games. He’s likely to get the bulk of the action next week, but the Wild’s busy schedule means Marc-Andre Fleury will probably start in a game. The 39-year-old goaltender has a 4-5-2 record, 3.29 GAA and .886 save percentage in 11 contests this year, but he’s traditionally done well against Buffalo (23-7-4 with a 2.21 GAA and a .920 save percentage in 23 career contests), so it’ll be interesting to see if he gets the nod against the Sabres on Tuesday.

In terms of forwards, Matt Boldy has been fantastic with seven goals and nine points over his last eight contests. Boldy managed just one goal over his first 12 games this year, but after collecting 31 tallies in 81 contests in 2022-23, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Boldy continue to be a solid contributor even after his current hot streak fizzles out.

Another youngster, Marco Rossi, is also having a fun campaign. He’s found the back of the net in each of his last two outings, bringing him up to 10 markers and 17 points in 27 appearances this season. It helps that he’s found a top-six role, although his offensive production isn’t likely to truly take off until he does more with the man advantage. He’s been limited to one power-play point (a goal) this year while serving mostly on the second unit.

Pittsburgh Penguins – MON VS MIN, THU VS CAR, SAT @ OTT

The Penguins have been mediocre this campaign, so every point is important as they attempt to stay in the battle for a playoff spot. They’ll start the week by hosting the Wild on Monday and the Flames on Thursday before visiting Ottawa on Saturday. Carolina is the only one of those adversaries in a playoff position, though Minnesota has made strides since parting ways with coach Dean Evason on Nov. 27.

Rickard Rakell (upper body) hasn’t played since Nov. 19, but he might make his return before next week. In fact, he’s not only projected to play Saturday versus Toronto but skate on the top line alongside Jake Guentzel and Sidney Crosby. Rakell has just four assists in 17 contests this year, but that assignment might spark him.

Meanwhile, Sidney Crosby is continuing to excel, supplying three goals and six points over his last five contests, which increases his 2023-24 totals to 17 goals and 31 points in 28 contests. The 36-year-old is on pace to flirt with the 50-goal milestone for the first time since 2009-10, which might sound unsustainable, but he is firing 3.75 shots per game, up from 3.11 last season, so as long as he continues to fire the puck at that rate, the goals should continue to come.

One player you shouldn’t get excited about, though, is Jeff Carter. He scored twice Tuesday, but that brings him up to just three goals and four points in 22 contests this campaign. Unlike Crosby, age has caught up to the 38-year-old Carter, who is consequently serving primarily in a fourth-line role. He might not have another night like Tuesday’s again this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE VS NYR, THU @BUF, SAT @ CBJ

The Maple Leafs will play at home against the Rangers on Tuesday and the Sabres on Thursday before visiting Columbus on Saturday. The contest against the Blue Jackets should be interesting after Toronto overcame a 5-0 deficit against them, only to lose 6-5 in overtime Thursday.

Joseph Woll (ankle) isn’t expected to return next week, so Ilya Samsonov will probably start in all three contests. Samsonov has struggled with a 5-1-5 record, 3.51 GAA and .878 save percentage in 13 contests this season, but the alternative is Martin Jones, who will probably only be used when Toronto is facing a back-to-back set.

Fortunately, Toronto can count on its offense, led by Auston Matthews, who has an insane nine goals and 15 points over his last seven contests. He’s up to 23 markers and 35 points in 27 games this year. William Nylander has been superb too, recording at least a point in seven straight contests as well as multiple points in each of his last four outings.

Calle Jarnkrok has been quietly effective lately, providing two goals and seven points over his last six contests. His success has been overshadowed by the likes of Matthews and Nylander, but Jarnkrok giving the Leafs some secondary scoring certainly has value. With Toronto set to face Buffalo and Columbus, ranked 23rd and 30th in goals allowed per game, respectively, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Jarnkrok continue to factor on the scoresheet next week.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Oilers missing McDavid – Woll pushing for playing time – McTavish and Sandheim stepping up – Plus much, much more

Scott Cullen — Fri, 27 Oct 2023 15:39:45 +0000

DALLAS, TX - OCTOBER 26: Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Joseph Woll (60) blocks a shot during the game between the Dallas Stars and the Toronto Maple Leafs on October 26, 2023 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, the Oilers are reeling and are now missing McDavid. Shane Pinto’s suspension, Joseph Woll pushing for playing time, Mason McTavish ready to make the leap in his second season, Travis Sanheim stepping up for the Flyers and more.

#1 The season could not have started much worse for the Edmonton Oilers, preseason Stanley Cup favourites who have a 1-5-1 record and are missing superstar centre Connor McDavid for 1-2 weeks due to an upper-body injury. McDavid had eight points (2 G, 6 A) in five games before getting hurt and the Oilers have had to juggle lines, moving Ryan Nugent-Hopkins into the second line centre spot while Leon Draisaitl fills in for McDavid as the first line centre. The Oilers have been outscored 10-4 in two losses without McDavid and will hope to get on the right track with the season’s first installment of the Battle of Alberta, the Heritage Classic outdoor game, which goes Sunday in Edmonton.

#2 Ottawa Senators centre Shane Pinto, still without a contract as a restricted free agent, was suspended for 41 games due to activities related to sports betting. That would appear to solidify Ridly Greig’s position as the third-line centre behind Tim Stutzle and Josh Norris. Greig, who is eligible for the Calder Trophy, has five points (1 G, 4 A) with 16 shots on goal in seven games. Another player whose future in Ottawa should be more secure is winger Mathieu Joseph, who had been rumoured to be on the trade block at times – ostensibly in order to clear cap space to sign Pinto – but Joseph has started the season with six points (3 G, 3 A) and 13 shots on goal in seven games.

#3 It has not taken long, but Toronto Maple Leafs rookie Joseph Woll is challenging Ilya Samsonov for time in Toronto’s crease. Woll, the 25-year-old netminder, has a .961 save percentage in four appearances and that will get anyone a longer look in net, but with Samsonov delivering a meagre .831 save percentage, it is an easy choice for the Maple Leafs to give Woll more opportunities. Samsonov played well for Toronto last season, but the unpredictable nature of the position means that, unless a team has a surefire No. 1, the job should be up for grabs so that the goaltender that is playing best can earn more playing time.

#4 Second-year Anaheim Ducks centre Mason McTavish scored in overtime Thursday to cap Anaheim’s surprising late comeback win in Boston, handing the Bruins their first loss of the season. The 20-year-old now has six points (3 G, 3 A) with 16 shots on goal in seven games and with the Ducks playing more competitively than might have been anticipated, it’s all the more reason to expect McTavish to obliterate his rookie season production of 43 points (17 G, 26 A).

#5 While there has been plenty of early season fanfare for Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat in Detroit – and deservedly so as they rank second and third, respectively, in the league scoring race – the third member of Detroit’s top line, Lucas Raymond, should not be overlooked. The third-year winger has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 18 shots on goal in eight games, and if he’s riding shotgun with Larkin and DeBrincat, that is an opportunity for Raymond to continue producing at a high level.

#6 Entering the season, there appeared to be plenty of holes in the Philadelphia Flyers lineup, not the least of which was a defencemen that would be able to contribute offensively. The early answer to that question is apparently Travis Sanheim, who had a career-high 35 points (9 G, 26 A) in 82 games in 2018-2019, but has busted out of the gate to start the season, producing eight points (1 G, 7 A) and 16 shots on goal in seven games. He is quarterbacking Philadelphia’s first power play unit and that should be enough reason to believe that the 27-year-old at least has a shot at the most productive offensive season of his career.

#7 The Colorado Avalanche took a chance on centre Ryan Johansen, acquiring him from the Nashville Predators in the offseason, and the early returns have been positive. Johansen has five points (4 G, 1 A) in seven games, but what is notable is that he also has 17 shots on goal. That rate of 2.43 shots on goal per game would be Johansen’s highest per-game rate since the 2014-2015 season. He has shown little interest in shooting the puck in recent seasons but if the Avalanche can change that approach, then the veteran pivot becomes a lot more interesting because he has the talent to score. Johansen has three seasons in his career with at least 25 goals, though only one since 2014-2015.

#8 Although he does not seem to be an ideal fit as a first line centre for the Minnesota Wild, Ryan Hartman does have seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 18 shots on goal in the first seven games of the season. Hartman had a career-high 65 points (34 G, 31 A) during the 2021-2022 season but that was the only season of his career in which he scored more than 40 points, so expectations for his production tend to be low enough that he could exceed them. The opportunity to play with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello can drag many players into fantasy relevance.

#9 Veteran centre Sean Monahan has been a valuable contributor for the Montreal Canadiens early in the season. After groin surgery ended his 2022-2023 season prematurely, the 29-year-old was facing an uncertain future. He re-signed in Montreal and has been excellent early in the season, producing six points (3 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal in seven games. For a relatively young Canadiens team, having Monahan’s experience and production helps to insulate their emerging players.

#10 When Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy required back surgery, the immediate question was how would the Lightning address this issue so that they did not have to ride with Jonas Johansson as their starting netminder for more than two months. The Lightning have not brought in a proven NHL goaltender, instead giving Johansson the opportunity and he has a .925 save percentage in seven starts. Given his mediocre track record, seven games are not nearly enough time to declare that Johansson is now an elite goaltender, but he offers potential for fantasy managers as what looks like a secure No. 1 goaltender until the Lightning make a move.

#11 Los Angeles Kings left winger Trevor Moore has found a comfortable home on Phillip Danault’s wing and Moore has opened this season with six points, including five goals, in his first six games. Moore has 16 shots on goal and that has been one of his strengths since arriving in Los Angeles – he uses his speed to consistently generate shots – and while he is obviously not going to keep scoring on 31% of his shots, Moore could certainly surpass his career high of 17 goals, set in 2021-2022.

#12 While the Boston Bruins might have had modest expectations for 34-year-old left winger James van Riemsdyk coming into the season, he has contributed five points (3 G, 2 A) with 16 shots on goal in seven games, with three of those points coming with the man advantage. Even if he is not terribly fleet afoot at this stage of his career, JvR has always had excellent hands around the net, and he still makes sense as a net-front presence for Boston.

#13 It appeared that the Edmonton Oilers secured outstanding value when they signed right winger Connor Brown coming off a season in which he was limited to just four games before tearing his ACL. Brown had established his credentials as a winger who could play in all situations before that and had played with Connor McDavid in junior hockey, so this was a great chance for Brown to re-establish his value, but that has not been the case thus far. Through seven games, Brown has failed to record a point and has just eight shots on goal. He has fallen to the third line on the Edmonton depth chart and, according to Cap Friendly, is due a performance bonus of $3,225,000 after he plays in 10 games. Would the Oilers abandon Brown this quickly in order to save the cap space?

#14 Seattle Kraken sophomore centre Matty Beniers is off to a tough start to the campaign. The 2022-2023 Calder Trophy winner, Beniers has yet to score a goal and has three assists and 13 shots on goal in the first eight games of the season. Shot generation has not been a Beniers strength to this point in his NHL career, but he has to be able to produce more. Right now, he has rookie Tye Kartye and veteran Jordan Eberle on his wings, which is not exactly driving the Kraken attack, but Beniers is capable of more and probably counts as a buy-low candidate for fantasy managers.

#15 In the second half of last season, New Jersey Devils winger Dawson Mercer erupted for 20 points (11 G, 9 A) during a 12-game span, on his way to a 27-goal season. He has been out of sorts this season, however, still looking for his first point after six games. Even more troubling is that Mercer has been held without a shot on goal in four straight games. He has been buried in shifts when he has been skating with rookie Alexander Holtz, with the duo managing a 34.5% Corsi in the 28 minutes of five-on-five play that they have been together.

#16 The Arizona Coyotes made several moves to bolster their forward talent in the offseason and one of the results of those acquisitions has been that Lawson Crouse’s role has been decreased. Coming off back-to-back seasons with 20 or more goals, Crouse had fantasy value because of his high hit totals to accompany his goal-scoring numbers. His ice time is down 2:42 per game from last season and Crouse has managed just one assist and eight shots on goal in six games.

#17 The Calgary Flames have staggered out of the starting blocks this season and centre Nazem Kadri is one Flames skater who could produce a lot more than he has to this point in the season. In eight games, Kadri has one assist and 23 shots on goal. Flames head coach Ryan Huska tried to shake things up by moving Kadri to right wing on the top line, with Jonathan Huberdeau and Elias Lindholm, but that has not snapped Kadri from his early-season funk.

#18 Chicago Blackhawks left winger Taylor Hall has landed on the injured list, forcing another change on the wing for rookie centre Connor Bedard. With Tyler Johnson on right wing, the Blackhawks have Nick Foligno stepping into Hall’s spot. With all due respect to Foligno, this is not an ideal situation for Bedard, who could use more offensively gifted linemates If he is going to maximize his production. Through seven games, Bedard has four points (2 G, 2 A) and 22 shots on goal.

#19 Columbus Blue Jackets centre – yes, centre – Patrik Laine suffered an injury when Calgary Flames defenseman Rasmus Andersson unloaded on him with a high hit late in a Flames loss to Columbus. Laine has not returned to action yet, missing three games since the incident. Boone Jenner and Jack Roslovic have joined Johnny Gaudreau on Columbus’ top line in Laine’s absence. Andersson was suspended for four games and MacKenzie Weegar has moved into the quarterback role on Calgary’s first unit power play.

#20 The Buffalo Sabres entered the season with hopes the rookie goaltender Devon Levi would be the one to carry the starter’s load between the pipes. Levi had a mediocre .892 save percentage in the first four games of the season before a nagging lower-body injury sidelined him. That has allowed Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to see some action. As noted earlier, riding the hot hand in net is becoming a way of life for NHL teams and it has helped the Sabres pick up a couple of wins.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – NASHVILLE PREDATORS – NHL Player Profiles

Corey Sznajder – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 20:09:35 +0000

SAN JOSE, CA - MARCH 05: Nashville Predators defenseman Roman Josi (59) skates during a timeout during the NHL game between the San Jose Sharks and the Nashville Predators on March 5, 2022 at SAP Center in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Matt Cohen/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Filip Forsberg

It might surprise some folks that last year was only the third time Filip Forsberg eclipsed the 30-goal mark and the only season where he was a point-per-game player. Widely considered one of the league’s stars, it was always a struggle for him to have the point production that matched his talent. That changed in 2021. Forsberg had the golden touch, scoring on almost 20% of his shots, benefitting from Nashville playing more off the rush than in past years. For years, the Preds were a team that created off long, sustained possessions with Forsberg pulling the puck off the wall, using his great hands to create chances with minimal space. This was still part of Nashville’s game, but there was more of a direct approach with Forsberg this year. He attacked the net more frequently after entering the zone, taking more shots instead of looking and being selective. It made a lethal combination with Matt Duchene, as the two frequently set each other up on give-and-go plays. Forsberg is such a gifted player that he can play any style and be effective, but the rush-based approach did a lot for making him more of a game-breaker, giving Nashville a huge spark in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. His playmaking also came a long way, ranking as one of the best players in the league in assists on scoring chances. With goal-scoring on the rise, Forsberg is set to have another good year. Will it be the heights he reached last year when everything went right, or will he settle back into being the 25-30 goal guy he’s been for most of his career?

Nino Niederreiter

A player like Niederreiter is always going to be useful because even if he’s in a scoring drought, he is going to do something to help his line. He has the top-six skill with a fourth line mentality. He’s very smart with how he forechecks and disrupts plays without taking penalties and can keep pucks pinned below the goal-line for an entire shift. It made him a vital member of Carolina’s shutdown line with Jordan Staal last year, as he was the “skill guy” on the line, creating looks off the rush and being the first one on pucks to wear down defenders. The interesting thing about him is that while he’s productive, a lot of the goals he scores are of the “odd” variety. You’ll see a lot of bank shots off the goaltender or goals from impossible angles. Not many players will have back-to-back 20-goal seasons scoring goals like this, but that’s been the case for him. There’s a lot of different things Nashville can do with him. He would fit right in with Tanner Jeannot on the checking line, but he was moved around in Carolina before settling in on Staal’s wing, so he brings some versatility there. Special teams’ ice-time is the one thing to look for with him, as he produced with limited usage on the Carolina power play and didn’t kill penalties either. He could be more of a fixture on both in Nashville.

Matt Duchene

One year removed from being available in the expansion draft, Matt Duchene had the type of season Nashville fans were waiting for. It was his most productive season in his long NHL career and the first time he reached the 40-goal mark. Nashville changing their approach to more of a transition team and pairing him with Filip Forsberg was the main cause. He always created a lot of shots but would often find himself too close to the goaltender or at too weird of an angle to make any moves or use his great shot. Most of that is from the Preds expecting Duchene to drive his own line with other checkers instead of pairing him with another elite talent like Forsberg. Skill works with skill and the duo were unstoppable for the Preds, Duchene getting the full benefit of playing more off the rush and using his speed as a weapon more. He created less offense in volume, but the chance quality was at another level because of how much time and space he would have to shoot. This also applies to the power play because while he still played the net-front role, the Preds set him up with more diagonal passing plays, giving him space for one-timers at the side of the net instead of looking for rebounds and deflections. There is some concern on if Duchene can produce without Forsberg by his side, but the Preds likely won’t mess with a duo that gave them such great results last year. They figured out how to cater to their best players strengths, which is an encouraging sign for the team going forward.

Ryan Johansen

Johansen was another player who had a renaissance season in Nashville, reaching the 20-goal mark for the first time since his Columbus days, although his rebound season wasn’t talked about as much. His game isn’t as flashy as it used to be. Hips surgeries have impacted how much power he can get behind his stride and while his strength is still there, he isn’t the same player who can setup shop in the offensive zone like in the heyday of the JOFA Line. His hands, however, are still as strong as ever and you saw that with how great he was as a goal-scorer. Nashville set him up in a lot of ways from the bumper position on the power play, he might have been Josi’s favorite passing target with his precision on tip plays and how he could get himself open for one-timers. It’s a different look from his old days of quarterbacking the power play from the wall, but goal-scoring is where he was the most effective and it caught some teams off-guard. He still had more of a pass-first mindset, especially after getting bumped up to the Forsberg line, it just wasn’t as extreme as it was in previous season, and it was rare for him to be the one driving a line. Someone else had to set the table for Johansen to get into the zone or create a chance and it was up to him to make the final play. It worked last year, but it’s clear that he is more of a specialist than he was in previous years. Most players have to adapt and change their games as they get older, and Johansen is going through that right now.

Tanner Jeannot

It’s hard not to love watching Tanner Jeannot play. He is very easy to notice anytime Nashville is on because of how aggressive he is anytime the puck is in the offensive zone. He’s always the first one to deliver a big hit or get in on the forecheck, which is always going to be part of Nashville’s DNA. His 24 goals were a bonus with everything else he brought to the table, leading all rookies in that department. He scored a lot of “dirty” goals off deflections and rebounds where the puck took an odd bounce, or he found himself behind the defense. Jeannot had some very good offensive seasons in Moose Jaw, but not many had him pegged as a 20+ goal-scorer, especially in the role Nashville had him in. His line with Colton Sissons and Yakov Trenin played in more high-leverage situations as the season went on and Jeannot’s penchant for going to the net for tip plays made them more of a dual threat than just a line that forechecks. Repeating that next year might be tough, as his line didn’t create a lot of shots unless it was coming off Trenin’s stick and Jeannot was more of an opportunistic scorer than someone who drove play. Although Nashville will be happy if they got even half of what Jeannot produced last year with how good he is at being an agitator.

Mikael Granlund

Granlund is one of the tougher players to project on Nashville’s roster. He plays a lot of important minutes, which includes killing penalties and centering Forsberg/Duchene, but when you look at what he does on his own, it’s not much. He had another good season in terms of points, with 25% of them coming off secondary assists and was a mainstay on their top power play unit. It’s just that he’s more of a support player now and his production will mirror whoever his linemates are. If that’s Forsberg and Duchene again, he’s in for a good season. If he’s centering another line, he might go back to the 40–45-point player he was before. That’s not to say he’s a bad player, because he wears a lot of hats for Nashville and helps facilitate the rush offense for Duchene and Forsberg by doing most of the work away from the puck. His endurance and lower body strength make him a key part of the Preds but he kind of struggled against quicker opponents and made him more of a power play specialist than in years past. That said, he should be the 1C for Nashville unless someone else dethrones him.

Phillip Tomasino

The young winger had a solid rookie season in Nashville despite not having a clear role. His linemates were inconsistent with Nashville not trusting him on the second line just yet and the Jeannot line playing more third line minutes. Tomasino ended up getting the leftovers and he did surprisingly well with a rotating cast of linemates, producing more primary assists per 60 minutes than any other Nashville forward. He has the tools to make the jump to a top-six role, as he’s more of a shoot-first player despite the boxcar stats and has a deceptive release. He’s also a smooth skater and showed some ability to create off the rush, although it didn’t lead to many goals. Tomasino was pigeon-holed into more of a shoot-first role last year because of who his linemates were (Johansen, Cousins, Novak) and while he did fine, he was better as a playmaker in junior and the long stick he uses made it awkward for him to get the shot he wanted even if he was in good position. His passing was still a threat, but Nashville has a lot of similar forwards that they needed a finisher on his line. This will likely be the next step in his development. He had a good season with limited minutes and should be in line for a bigger role next year.

Eeli Tolvanen

While Tolvanen has struggled to be the force he was in junior, he has found a niche as a defensive-forward for Nashville, although it’s not always obvious when watching him play. He still has the bomb of a one-timer and shows flashes of high-end skill, but it’s been tough for him to produce at the NHL level even with decent minutes. However, he made himself an everyday NHLer by finding other ways to be productive. He was an excellent forechecker and was very good at using his stick to force turnovers, setting the table for the Jeannot line to follow it up with offensive zone shifts. Sometimes this is what you have to do if you’re skill isn’t producing results like you’d hope, and it showed some maturity in Tolvanen’s game. It could make him a nice fit with Nino Niederreiter in the middle-six or on the penalty kill if they want to use him there. That said, Nashville is hoping for more offense out of him if they’re going to continue to give him power play time. We’ve seen how good of a shooter he is in spurts and making his shot more of a threat is one thing the Preds can do to take Tolvanen’s game to the next level.

Yakov Trenin

You can take one look at the monstrous Yakov Trenin and have a good idea of how he plays. He is there to crash bodies, shoot the puck and be a general pain to play against. He was the catalyst of Nashville’s “Herd Line” with Jeannot and Sissons, usually the one taking most of the shots or hitting Jeannot for a deflection. It’s easy to forget that Trenin was a good goal-scorer at other levels, including fairly recently in the AHL, so his 17 goals weren’t totally out of left field. He shoots from everywhere in the offensive zone and isn’t a one-trick pony with taking empty calorie shots off the rush. He will go to the net and is skilled with getting deflections off point shots. It was just a perfect marriage of playing styles with him and Jeannot, as the duo spent a lot of time in the offensive zone and Trenin could play to his strengths more with playing a straight-line game and getting ga lot of shots on goal. He is the most likely member of The Herd Line to repeat his production from the past season.

DEFENSE

Roman Josi

The biggest catalyst of Nashville’s newfound offense was their best player, Roman Josi. The Norris runner-up was a few goalposts and mishits from being the first defenseman to reach 100 points since Brian Leetch. Better scoring from the forwards was part of it, but something else was a change in approach in how they used their star. Nashville tried to keep Josi out of the defensive zone as much as possible, sending him on the ice off opposing line-changes and having his partners retrieve the puck more, allowing Josi to get up in the play and create off the rush without expending as much energy. It also allowed him to play longer shifts in the offensive zone, which already catered to his strengths. He could treat five-on-five play like a power play and attack off the rush on more “re-load” type of plays against tired defenders rather than going the full-200 feet. Nashville already knows what they have in Josi, now they wanted to maximize how gifted he is with the puck rather than have him carry the entire defense on his back. Safe to say they got the result they wanted. It didn’t matter which forwards he was paired with because he can make anyone dangerous with how much attention he draws from defenders. Someone usually gets open and Josi is one of the best passing defensemen in the league. It was showcased even more on the power play, where he set career highs with 37 points and scored 11 goals, more than he has had in the past three years combined. Josi will get his offense, but it will be tough to replicate the gaudy point total he had this year, as so few defensemen have been able to replicate the type of season he had.

Mattias Ekholm

The workhorse of the Preds defense, Ekholm played more of a pure shutdown role than he ever has before. He started the bulk of his shifts in the defensive zone against top lines and did a lot of the heavy lifting when it came to limiting damage. There were few defensemen in the league who had more successful puck retrievals in the defensive zone, both to kickstart breakouts and to clear the zone. It was a bit of a thankless role, as Ekholm didn’t get to be up in the play much at all and his offense took a small hit. They were also very taxing minutes, and he doesn’t get enough credit for avoiding as many hits as he does because he’s so quick to make the first play after going back to get the puck. Killing other team’s forechecks is an underrated skill for a shutdown defenseman, as most are concerned with blocking shots and delivering hits. He fits the mold of a modern defenseman but doesn’t have the flashy plays that a Jaccob Slavin or Devon Toews, so he gets overlooked in that discussion. It also shouldn’t be overlooked that he took on these minutes alongside a rookie partner in Alex Carrier, who slowly picked up on some of Ekholm’s traits with protecting the puck from forecheckers to move it out of the zone. The downside is that this type of workload eventually catches up. Always playing on your heels, clearing pucks and swimming upstream has a trickle-down effect on the rest of your shifts if you’re not creating any offense. Ekholm managed to do well but it’s a tough role to play every year.

Dante Fabbro

Ending the previous year as a healthy scratch in the playoffs, Fabbro got his career back on track by solidifying himself as Roman Josi’s right-hand man. He had the less desirable job of the duo, going back to get most of the pucks and being the safety value while Josi did his usual roaming in the offensive zone. It had its perks. Fabbro got to play a little more on offense, utilizing the more skilled part of his game we saw at Boston U. Before then, he looked like a player who could eat a lot of minutes but not really do anything to shift the tides of the game. While that’s still somewhat true, Fabbro did show he can hang with the stars on the team, being a productive member of their top defense pair isn’t anything to scoff at. Especially since you’re going to deal with a lot of unpredictability with Josi as your partner. The most encouraging thing is that Fabbro translated some of his skills to the defensive side of the game, using some of his finesse to help start breakouts and using his skating to help get back to cover for Josi or defend entries. It’s exactly the type of thing you want to see with your young defensemen. Can he do it with a partner that isn’t a Norris runner-up? That remains to be seen.

GOALTENDING

Juuse Saros

In a perfect world, it’s hard to believe that the Nashville Predators would want to leave starter Juuse Saros to shoulder such a large chunk of the workload during the regular season. But thanks to the covid-19 league-wide hiccups and a slew of start-and-stops that left some of the league’s most storied veterans struggling to get themselves into top game shape, the 2022-23 season features a few too many open spots for tandem jobs and a few too many established names to fill them – which has left teams like Nashville to take gambles on available reclamation projects while hoping that starters like Saros can handle heavier volumes of work without fizzling out around the postseason.

The good news for Nashville is that Saros has been exactly what they hoped he would be, without suffering much in the way of growing pains as he adjusted to life without mentor Pekka Rinne sharing his crease. A structurally precise goaltender who tricks teams with his smaller stature and keeps them on their toes with surprisingly fast footwork and good pad reach, Saros has kept Nashville from plummeting once their giants hit a decline and left them facing down a likely-closed Stanley Cup window. What they might need to worry about, though, is just how healthy Saros can remain when holding down the fort every night – especially with a fairly unknown quantity behind him in fellow Finnish netminder Kevin Lankinen, who arrives fresh off a tumultuous handful of years with the Chicago Blackhawks. Lankinen’s speed and enthusiasm don’t necessarily compensate fully for the technical gaps in his game, particularly when it comes to his ability to adapt his play hinging out from the blue line – and Chicago’s complete lack of defensive structure left him with few good examples in the way of effective reading and reacting in the way of blue line systems. He has a lot of promise to his game, but a lot of bad habits that he’ll need to unlearn if Nashville hopes to utilize him as a quality backup option to tandem with Saros beyond this year.

Projected starts: 60-65

NHL PLAYOFFS: PLAYOFF POOL STRATEGIES – 10 Fantasy Tips to Win – Players to Target

Scott Cullen — Fri, 29 Apr 2022 14:52:43 +0000

TAMPA, FL - APRIL 26: Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) celebrates the last home regular season win with Tampa Bay Lightning center Steven Stamkos (91) during the NHL Hockey match between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Columbus Blue Jackets on April 26, 2022 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)

PLAYOFF POOL STRATEGIES

As a fascinating and surprisingly high-scoring NHL regular season comes to a close, it is time to look to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Playoffs mean playoff pools and after many years of experience in this process, there are plenty of lessons that have been learned.

Here are 10 tips to keep in mind when making picks for your playoff pool:

#1 TRACK THE PATH TO THE CUP

While standard hockey pool procedure would suggest focusing on the teams that you expect to be among the final four remaining, because playing more games naturally offers more opportunity to accumulate points, some teams have what is perceived to be an easier path. Consider the New York Rangers, who will have home-ice advantage in the first round against either the Pittsburgh Penguins or Washington Capitals and may not have to run through the gauntlet that is the Atlantic Division until the third round of the playoffs.

#2 DIVERSIFY YOUR APPROACH

It is possible to win a pool by loading up on one team and getting as many players as you can from the eventual Stanley Cup champ, but that’s a risky game with little margin for error. There were nine Tampa Bay Lightning players that recorded double digit point totals on the way to last season’s Stanley Cup, and one of them was defenseman Erik Cernak. Once you factor in how unlikely it is to secure all of the top players from one of the favorites, it starts to make more sense to spread the love and target a few top players for your projected final four teams.

#3 STACKING STILL WORKS

While spreading your picks among several teams is the most sensible approach, there is still some sweet value to be found in doubling up with players that are on the same line. Picking Evander Kane to go with Connor McDavid or Zach Hyman to pair with Leon Draisaitl, there is potential to hit big if their line has postseason success.

#4 DON’T PLAY BOTH SIDES IN THE FIRST ROUND

One of the cardinal rules of playoff pools is to avoid players that play each other in the first round, simply because it is going to be suboptimal to guarantee the removal of players that can count towards your total. It can be hard enough to get your players to advance, there is no need to make the process even more challenging by forcing a player out in the first round.

#5 POWER PLAY DEFENSEMEN HAVE MORE VALUE

In the small sample of the playoffs, power plays tend to have outsized value. A power play that runs hot or cold can easily swing the difference in a series, and often the defenseman that quarterbacks the first power play unit can pile up points. Since 2009-2010, a span covering 11 playoff years, there have been 75 defensemen to record at least 10 points in a playoff year.

That said, only seven of last year’s Top 50 playoff scorers were defensemen, so it is not like productive forwards should be ignored just for the sake of adding a power play defenseman but be aware that the power play quarterback has fantasy appeal.

#6 GOALIES CAN’T WIN, UNTIL THEY CAN

Reputation follows a lot of players and leads to decisions based on who can and can’t win a Stanley Cup. It has happened with forwards like Alex Ovechkin and Phil Kessel, but that rep follows goalies, too and, aside from Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has won back-to-back Stanley Cups, there is a lot of uncertainty when it comes to playoff goaltending.

Just look at the goaltenders for the top teams in the regular season this year. Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA), Darcy Kuemper (COL), Frederik Andersen (CAR), Jack Campbell (TOR), Jacob Markstrom (CGY), Marc-Andre Fleury (MIN), Jordan Binnington (STL), Igor Shesterkin (NYR) and then Linus Ullmark or Jeremy Swayman (BOS). There are a lot of goaltenders that have not yet shown that they can win in the playoffs and even some of those that have come with some question marks. The thing is, goaltending matters a lot, but it is difficult to predict in most cases, so keep that in mind when forecasting which teams are going to go all the way.

#7 CONSIDER PLAYERS WITH LATE SEASON MOMENTUM

Sometimes a player’s total points do not accurately reflect their current level of performance. Here are some players that have finished the regular season on a roll.

Lightning C/RW Steven Stamkos

The all-time leading scorer in Tampa Bay Lightning history is hardly flying under the radar, but Stamkos has produced 23 points (7 G, 16 A) in the past eight games, recording at least two points in all eight of those contests.

Blues C Robert Thomas

This has been a breakthrough season for the fourth-year center, but Thomas’ finish to the campaign has been something to behold, as he has put up 35 points (12 G, 23 A) in his past 22 games.

Wild RW Kevin Fiala

The talented Wild winger put it all together down the stretch, tallying 24 points (10 G, 14 A) in his past 12 games, giving the Wild better scoring balance in the process.

Predators C Matt Duchene

The 31-year-old pivot bounced back from a down year with the best season of his career in 2021-2022 and he finished strong, with 39 points (20 G, 19 A) in the past 28 games.

Rangers C Andrew Copp

An outstanding trade deadline pickup, Copp has scored 18 points (8 G, 10 A) in 16 games with the Blueshirts, though he has suffered a late-season injury.

Flames D Noah Hanifin

Several Flames have enjoyed breakout seasons, but Hanifin has finished with an added flourish, scoring 20 points (4 G, 16 A) in his past 18 games.

Bruins C Erik Haula

Boston was supposed to be on the hunt for someone to fill David Krejci’s spot as the second line center and it turns out that Haula has been the answer, fitting between Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak and scoring 19 points (10 G, 9 A) in his past 19 games.

Avalanche RW Valeri Nichushkin

An elite checking winger who has broken through offensively, Nichushkin has 21 points (11 G, 10 A) in his past 20 games, which is prime secondary scoring.

Kings LW Adrian Kempe

The speedy winger has buried a career-high 34 goals and has been dangerous down the stretch, scoring 17 points (9 G, 8 A) in his past 17 games.

#8 NATURALLY, CREDIT THOSE WITH PREVIOUS PLAYOFF SUCCESS

10 active players that are going to be in this year’s playoffs and have at least a point per game in the postseason since 2009-2010:

Avalanche C Nathan MacKinnon

69 points (28 G, 41 A) in 50 games

Oilers C Leon Draisaitl

27 points (11 G, 16 A) in 21 games

Avalanche RW Mikko Rantanen

52 points (18 G, 34 A) in 43 games

Lightning RW Nikita Kucherov

127 points (44 G, 83 A) in 113 games

Lightning C Brayden Point

73 points (36 G, 37 A) in 67 games

Bruins RW David Pastrnak

68 points (27 G, 41 A) in 63 games

Oilers C Connor McDavid

22 points (11 G, 11 A) in 21 games

Hurricanes C Sebastian Aho

35 points (14 G, 21 A) in 24 games

Penguins C Sidney Crosby

128 points (45 G, 83 A) in 125 games

Panthers LW Jonathan Huberdeau

16 points (4 G, 12 A) in 16 games

And 10 more that are close:

Penguins LW Jake Guentzel

48 points (26 G, 22 A) in 51 games

Rangers LW Artemi Panarin

28 points (10 G, 18 A) in 30 games

Avalanche LW Gabriel Landeskog

45 points (16 G, 29 A) in 49 games

Avalanche D Cale Makar

31 points (7 G, 24 A) in 35 games

Capitals LW Alex Ovechkin

105 points (56 G, 49 A) in 120 games

Panthers C Aleksander Barkov

14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 16 games

Panthers RW Claude Giroux

68 points (23 G, 45 A) in 79 games

Blues C Ryan O’Reilly

44 points (15 G, 29 A) in 52 games

Kings C Anze Kopitar

66 points (21 G, 45 A) in 79 games

Predators C Ryan Johansen

52 points (19 G, 33 A) in 63 games

#9 DIG DEEPER FOR VALUE

Name recognition drives a lot of fantasy value. The early picks in any pool are going to be players that are well known, but there is value to be found among players who do not necessarily have established reputations as a first-rate scorer. Here are 10 value candidates for playoff pools:

Panthers LW Mason Marchment

The power forward plays in a supporting role for the highest scoring team in the league and he has 36 points (16 G, 20 A) in the past 37 games.

Avalanche LW Artturi Lehkonen

Added from Montreal at the trade deadline, the reliable checking winger has found a touch around the net, putting up eight points (5 G, 3 A) in the past nine games.

Hurricanes RW Seth Jarvis

The rookie winger has produced 20 points (9 G, 11 A) in his past 22 games, including a point in each of his past seven games.

Hurricanes C Jordan Staal

The veteran checking center was an offensive black hole at times during the season but rounded into form late in the season, contributing 12 points (9 G, 3 A) in his past 11 games.

Kings C Phillip Danault

One of the most valuable free agent signings from last summer, the Kings get outstanding two-way play out of Danault and his improved offensive game only enhances his overall value. He has 16 points (10 G, 6 A) in his past 19 games.

Bruins RW Jake DeBrusk

Nothing like getting a chance to skate on the wing with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, and that spot has worked wonders for DeBrusk, who has 15 points (9 G, 6 A) in his past 17 games.

Wild C Frederick Gaudreau

Has 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in his past 10 games to earn a career-high 44 points this season and is the unheralded pivot between red-hot Kevin Fiala and star rookie Matt Boldy.

Avalanche D Bowen Byram

He does not play a huge role due to the depth of talent on the Colorado blueline, and the fact that he missed a bunch of time recovering from a concussion, but the 20-year-old is super skilled and still put up six assists in 12 games after returning to the lineup. If the Avs go on a run, Byram could find his way to a productive postseason.

Capitals RW Anthony Mantha

An injury-shortened season for the towering winger, but he does have nine points (2 G, 7 A) in his past 10 games and might need to take on a bigger role for Washington if Ovechkin is not healthy for the start of the playoffs.

#10 BEWARE THE INJURED

Players are going to play through injuries in the Stanley Cup Playoffs but exercise caution when it comes to players that are already known to be hurt heading towards the postseason. If there is a risk of the player missing games right from the start, then that means there is a risk that they don’t contribute at all to your point total. Injuries could create some sleeper potential if the replacements get a chance to play prime minutes.

Some notable injuries to monitor heading into the playoffs:

Capitals LW Alex Ovechkin, upper body

Predators G Juuse Saros, lower body

Hurricanes G Frederik Andersen, lower body

Penguins G Tristan Jarry, lower body

Panthers D Aaron Ekblad, lower body

Rangers LW Artemi Panarin, upper body

Avalanche LW Gabriel Landeskog, knee

Blues LW David Perron, lower body

Blues C Brayden Schenn, upper body

Wild D Jared Spurgeon, upper body

Oilers D Darnell Nurse, lower body

Wild RW Mats Zuccarello, lower body

Rangers C Andrew Copp, lower body

Maple Leafs LW Michael Bunting, undisclosed

Wild D Matt Dumba, upper body

Panthers C Anton Lundell, upper body

Penguins LW Jason Zucker, lower body

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Carey Price is diving back into the crease, Robert Thomas and Nico Hischier are making the leap, and college stars like Owen Power, Matty Beniers, Bobby Brink, and Kent Johnson are jumping into the NHL.

Scott Cullen — Sat, 16 Apr 2022 14:37:24 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, Carey Price is diving back into the crease, Robert Thomas and Nico Hischier are making the leap, and college stars like Owen Power, Matty Beniers, Bobby Brink, and Kent Johnson are jumping into the NHL.

MONTREAL, QC - APRIL 15: Montreal Canadiens goalie Carey Price (31) first game of the season after a long injury participates in drills at warm-up before the New York Islanders versus the Montreal Canadiens game on April 15, 2022 at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

#1 It has been a trying season for the Montreal Canadiens, due in part to being without their starting goaltender all year. Carey Price returned to action Friday against the New York Islanders and allowed two goals on 19 shots in a 3-0 loss. In the past four regular seasons, Price has compiled a .909 save percentage in 198 games, which is a little below league average, but he has been excellent in his past five playoffs, earning a .925 save percentage in 62 postseason games since 2013-2014, which is tied with Braden Holtby for the best mark in the league among goaltenders that have appeared in at least 30 playoff games in that span.

#2 The 2020-2021 season should have been a breakout year for St. Louis Blues center Robert Thomas, who was heading into this third season after showing promise in his first two. Then he scored 12 points in 33 games. That lowered expectations for this season and now Thomas has had that breakout campaign. He has 23 points (6 G, 17 A) during an 11-game point streak and is up to 71 points (18 G, 53 A) in 64 games for the season.

#3 With Jack Hughes sidelined for the rest of the season, New Jersey Devils captain Nico Hischier steps into the role as the team’s No. 1 center and Hischier has rolled up 34 points (12 G, 22 A) in his past 26 games, recording at least one point in 21 of those 26 games. The reason for long-term hope in New Jersey is largely because of the potential of their top two centers.

#4 The top pick in the 2021 Draft by the Buffalo Sabres, defenseman Owen Power stepped into the NHL after finishing his sophomore season at Michigan, where he put up 32 points (3 G, 29 A) in 33 games for the Wolverines. Power made a seamless transition to the NHL, averaging 21:30 per game in his first two contests. For fantasy purposes, Power’s upside is going to be limited for the time being because Rasmus Dahlin is manning the point on Buffalo’s first power play unit.

#5 Power’s teammate at Michigan, and the second overall pick in last summer’s draft, Matty Beniers joined the Seattle Kraken and, like Power, Beniers looked ready for the challenge. He recorded an assist in his NHL debut and has landed in the No. 1 center spot for the Kraken, between Ryan Donato and Jordan Eberle. Beniers had 43 points (20 G, 23 A) in 37 games as a sophomore for the Wolverines.

#6 Not as highly touted as the kids coming out of Michigan, center Marc McLaughlin was signed by the Boston Bruins after he wrapped up his career at Boston College, where he was the captain for the past two seasons. McLaughlin had 31 points (21 G, 10 A) in 33 games as a senior for the Eagles and has stepped into the Bruins lineup and scored three goals in six games. While McLaughlin is establishing himself as a bona fide NHL player, he has averaged 10:34 of ice time per game thus far, which is indicative of his depth role on the Bruins.

#7 Arizona made a couple of deals to acquire college players before the trade deadline and Jack McBain and Nathan Smith have made their NHL debuts for the Coyotes. McBain, who was brought in from Minnesota, was a teammate of McLaughlin at Boston College and produced 33 points (19 G, 14 A) in 24 games for the Eagles. While McBain has no points and just one shot on goal in his first two NHL games, the puck is moving the right way (56.4%) with him on the ice and this late season audition gives him a chance to show he is NHL ready for next season. Smith was drafted by Winnipeg but was traded to Arizona after he had 50 points (19 G, 31 A) in 38 games for Minnesota State Mankato. Like McBain, Smith has no points and just two shots on goal in his first two games, but the puck is moving the right way (55.9 CF%).

#8 A small winger whose skating is not necessarily his strong suit, Bobby Brink is nevertheless an intriguing option for the Philadelphia Flyers. He has joined the team after winning the national championship for Denver University, piling up 57 points (14 G, 43 A) in 41 games as a junior for the Pioneers. Brink has one assist in his first two NHL games and is skating alongside Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee at evens while also getting a look on the top power play unit, so there is an opportunity for Brink to not only play but to contribute down the stretch.

#9 Another first-round pick out of Michigan Kent Johnson was the fifth overall pick in 2021 by Columbus. He tallied 37 points (8 G, 29 A) in 32 games as a sophomore for the Wolverines and slides into a role on the Blue Jackets’ third line. He is on the second power play unit but Johnson only saw 11 minutes of ice time in his NHL debut so he may not have enough of an opportunity to provide a fantasy impact this season. He will be one to watch for next season.

#10 The Minnesota Wild made splashy trade to bring in Marc-Andre Fleury at the trade deadline and it should be noted that Cam Talbot is hardly giving up the crease. In his past nine starts, Talbot is 7-0-2 with a .936 save percentage. That’s good enough to stay fantasy relevant down the stretch as the Wild do not need to lean heavily on Fleury, even if he is the one that is most likely to see the bulk of the action in the playoffs.

#11 For most of this season, Edmonton Oilers goaltender Mike Smith has struggled, and it was not so long ago that it looked like Mikko Koskinen would have to be the No. 1 guy for Edmonton down the stretch. Smith, however, has rounded into form and with the Oilers scoring a bunch, Smith has thrived, going 7-1-1 with a .932 save percentage in his past nine starts.

#12 One of the reasons that the Nashville Predators are in position to make the playoffs this season is the production that they have received from center Ryan Johansen. He already has 23 goals, which is his highest goal total in a season since 2014-2015, but it is not like Johansen has had a dramatic spike in shot rate. He is averaging 1.52 shots per game this season, compared to 1.40 per game last season, but he is scoring on a career high 21.3% of his shots and that has made a difference. The question is how sustainable that difference might be.

#13 On the other hand, Nashville has received a career season from Matt Duchene, who has set career highs with 38 goals and 75 points. This comes after a season in which Duchene managed a mere 13 points in 34 games. While Duchene is scoring on 19.0% of his shots, he has generated 2.86 shots on goal per game, the second highest rate of his career and his highest since 2013-2014.

#14 Even though the Ottawa Senators are well out of the playoffs, they have been competitive late in the season and part of that is due to the development of second-year center Tim Stutzle, who has drawn criticism for diving from Montreal Canadiens winger Brendan Gallagher. Ultimately, Stutzle is a 20-year-old playmaker who has 23 points (6 G, 17 A) in his past 19 games.

#15 The Calgary Flames have had a tremendous season and that team success has lifted the results of many individual players, including defenseman Noah Hanifin, who has a career high 41 points (8 G, 33 A) while generating a career high 2.29 shots on goal per game. Hanifin’s 12 power play points ranks second among Flames defensemen behind Rasmus Anderson, who has 17.

#16 As the Vancouver Canucks make a desperate push for a playoff spot, they are doing so without injured right winger Brock Boeser and that has created more playing time for rookie winger Vasily Podkolzin, who has six points (3 G, 3 A) while averaging 16:19 of ice time per game in his past four games. Prior to that, Podkolzin had been averaging 12:16 of ice time per game, so he is stepping into a big role at a critical point in the Canucks’ season.

#17 New Jersey Devils left winger Yegor Sharangovich did not score a goal in his first 13 games of the season, but he is enjoying a strong finish to his second NHL season, contributing 26 points (14 G, 12 A) in his past 28 games. He is riding shotgun on left wing with Hischier on the Devils top line, with AHL call-up Fabian Zetterlund on the right side.

#18 A 36-year-old forward on a team with fading, nearly extinct, playoff hopes, Paul Stastny has been a quality contributor for the Winnipeg Jets. He has nine points (3 G, 6 A) in his past nine games, giving him 41 points (20 G, 21 A) in 64 games. Stastny’s 16 even-strength goals is his most in a season since 2013-2014.

#19 Bowen Byram has returned to the Colorado Avalanche lineup following a concussion and the second-year defenseman has three assists in five games since rejoining the Avs. He has only appeared in 23 games, but Byram has averaged 1.52 points per 60 minutes of 5v5 play, which ranks seventh among defensemen (just behind the Maple Leafs’ Morgan Rielly) that have played at least 200 5v5 minutes this season. Byram’s teammates Cale Makar and Devon Toews rank second and fifth, respectively.

#20 Since the trade deadline, these are the players with the highest rate of individual expected goals (minimum 100 5v5 minutes): Florida’s Mason Marchment, Tampa Bay’s Ross Colton, Boston’s Brad Marchand, Calgary’s Blake Coleman, Dallas’ Alexander Radulov, Winnipeg’s Nikolaj Ehlers, Pittsburgh’s Evan Rodrigues, Toronto’s Auston Matthews, Vegas’ Nicolas Roy, and Florida’s Carter Verhaeghe.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Hughes, Boldy and Rossi, Rodrigues, Kotkaniemi, Thomas, Goaltenders and much more ..

Scott Cullen — Fri, 07 Jan 2022 22:52:58 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

20 Fantasy Points is back on McKeen’s Hockey and this week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, the Minnesota Wild are making moves with a couple of top prospects, Evan Rodrigues with a late breakthrough for the Penguins, Ilya Mikheyev taking advantage of his shot in Toronto, and a Nashville winger with a rare skillset.

#1 The Minnesota Wild called up a pair of top prospects this week. Left winger Matt Boldy and center Marco Rossi were promoted from the American Hockey League, where both were scoring at a point-per-game clip. Boldy, who suffered a broken ankle in preseason, had 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 36 shots on goal in 10 games for Iowa of the AHL. He put up 18 points (6 G, 12 A) and 52 shots on goal in 16 games for Iowa last season when he joined the team after his sophomore season at Boston College. That ability to consistently generate shots bodes well for Boldy’s offensive production as he climbs the ladder. Boldy scored a goal during his NHL debut, at Boston, Thursday and could be looking at a bigger role quickly if Kirill Kaprizov is going to miss time with an upper-body injury suffered in that game.

#2 Rossi missed all of last season after contracting COVID-19, but the ninth pick in the 2020 Draft appears to have recovered nicely. In 21 games for Iowa, Rossi was leading the team with 23 points (7 G, 16 A). He also had 63 shots on goal, a quality rate for a playmaking center. Rossi and Boldy played primarily with veteran winger Marcus Foligno against the Bruins.

#3 One of the most remarkable stories of this NHL season is 28-year-old Penguins forward Evan Rodrigues, who has a career-high 15 goals and 30 points in 33 games. One reason to believe in Rodrigues’ production is that he has been averaging 3.42 shots on goal per game, far better than his shot rate in any previous seasons. Rodrigues has moved around the Pittsburgh lineup as needed this season and his most common linemates have been Kasperi Kapanen, Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Danton Heinen, and Jason Zucker. One note of caution: the pending return of Evgeni Malkin could bump Rodrigues from the Penguins’ first power play unit.

#4 When Maple Leafs winger Ilya Mikheyev requested a trade in the offseason, the team did not oblige him, insisting that he would play a big role this season. Then Mikheyev broke his thumb in the final preseason game and missed the first couple of months while he recovered. He has played three games, scoring three goals with 13 shots on goal, and is in a good spot on the left side with John Tavares at center and William Nylander on the right wing.

#5 24-year-old Predators left winger Tanner Jeannot had a breakthrough season last year, tallying 21 points (10 G, 11 A) in 13 AHL games to earn a promotion to Nashville, where he scored seven points (5 G, 2 A) in 15 games. Jeannot used that as a launching pad to this season and he has taken on a bigger role with Nashville. In his past 10 games, Jeannot has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) while playing 17:46 per game. Jeannot and Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk are the only forwards in the league with more than 20 points and 100 hits this season.

#6 Islanders defenseman Noah Dobson, who turns 22 today, has taken advantage of the opportunity to play more and is becoming a difference maker. In his past 10 games, Dobson has played 22:36 per game and has produced 10 points (5 G, 5 A) with 27 shots on goal.

#7 It is easy for players to get lost in Arizona, considering how poorly this season is going for the Coyotes, but there may be some value in those overlooked players. Left winger Lawson Crouse has been reasonably productive, scoring 12 points (6 G, 6 A), while averaging 18:26 of ice time per game, in the past 20 games. He also has 60 hits in that time, which is enough to complement that so-so scoring rate.

#8 A player who may not be in Arizona for much longer, right winger Phil Kessel started slowly this season, but he is finding his way back to the scoresheet. In the past 18 games, Kessel has 18 points (3 G, 15 A) and 45 shots on goal. There is probably a situation out there for Kessel to join a contender in a complementary role and have success, not unlike his previous time in Pittsburgh.

#9 Currently out of the lineup after testing positive for COVID-19, Sabres right winger Alex Tuch is looking at a prime opportunity in Buffalo. Tuch was acquired from Vegas as part of the Jack Eichel trade and delivered three points (1 G, 2 A) in his first three games for the Sabres while averaging 17:08 of ice time per game. While Tuch mostly played a third-line role for the Golden Knights, he has the opportunity to play a first-line role on the rebuilding Sabres.

#10 After signing a one year offers sheet for more than $6 million with the Carolina Hurricanes, Jesperi Kotkaniemi managed just four points (3 G, 1 A) and 19 shots on goal while playing 11:58 per game in his first 18 games for Carolina. At that point, it looked like Carolina might regret their decision. Since then, however, Kotkaniemi has responded with 11 points (4 G, 7 A) and 23 shots on goal in 13 games. He is still playing a supporting role for Carolina, but he is now having a positive impact in that role.

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 24: New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes (86) shoots the puck during the first period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New Jersey Devils on April 24, 2021, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

#11 Devils center Jack Hughes, the first pick in the 2019 Draft, was hurt in the second game of the season and he missed more than five weeks of game action. Since returning, Hughes has 17 points (7 G, 10 A) and 44 shots on goal in 16 games, so he is starting to produce like a premier playmaking center, as expected.

#12 St. Louis Blues center Robert Thomas was one of my preferred picks for a breakout season last year, before he finished with 12 points (2 G, 10 A) in 33 games. Thomas remains a puck distributor first and foremost, but he has stepped into a lead role for the Blues, averaging 19:09 time on ice per game, second highest among Blues forwards behind Ryan O’Reilly. Thomas has 17 points (2 G, 15 A) and 30 shots on goal in his past 16 games.

#13 In the past two seasons, Nashville Predators center Ryan Johansen produced 58 points (21 G, 37 A) in 116 games, mediocre production for a player making $8 million under the salary cap. This season, Johansen has been riding a career-high shooting percentage of 20.8% to help him on his way to 27 points (10 G, 17 A) in 32 games. That shooting percentage is ripe for regression since Johansen has a shooting percentage of 10.9% in the past five seasons, but he has at least put himself back into the fantasy discussion.

#14 Devils winger Jesper Bratt has shown promise in his first four seasons but has taken a step forward this season. After he did not record a point in the first five games of the season, Bratt has produced 32 points (10 G, 22 A) with 83 shots on goal in 29 games. On a Devils team that does not have elite talent on the wing, Bratt has established that he is a consistent scoring threat, and he is still available in a lot of leagues.

#15 36-year-old Tampa Bay Lightning right winger Corey Perry has been a clutch playoff player in recent seasons even if his regular-season scoring has not been so impressive. In the past month, though, Perry has 13 points (7 G, 6 A) and 31 shots on goal in 13 games.

#16 With Cam Talbot injured, the Minnesota Wild will be forced to lean on goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen who has a .943 save percentage in his past five appearances and .913 save percentage in nine games overall this season. It is a small sample, and Kahkonen has not played enough in the NHL to establish that he is reliable long-term, but he could get some regular action for a good team and that gives him more value than he would have otherwise.

#17 Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick will turn 36 in two weeks and has had three straight subpar seasons, yet he has rebounded and is putting up an unexpectedly strong season for the Kings. The last time Quick finished a season with a save percentage higher than this season’s .921 mark was 2011-2012.

#18 As New York Rangers starting goaltender Igor Shesterkin has tested positive for COVID-19, that means that the Blueshirts will turn to Alexandar Georgiev, who has a .904 save percentage in 15 games for the Rangers this season. He is not Shesterkin, who has been one of the league’s best this season, but Georgiev could deliver some short-term value if given the opportunity to start for the Rangers and has a 6-4-2 record this season.

#19 The Boston Bruins are going to bring back goaltender Tuukka Rask, who has signed a PTO with the Providence Bruins of the AHL with an eye towards making his return to Boston following offseason hip surgery. A COVID-19 shutdown is going to slow down that plan, but 34-year-old Rask seems set to be a key component in goal for the Bruins down the stretch. The 2013-2014 Vezina Trophy winner has been an above-average goaltender throughout his career, all spent with the Bruins, posting a .921 save percentage in 560 games.

BOSTON, MA - JULY 08: Boston Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman (80) during Bruins Development Camp on July 8, 2017 at Warrior Ice Arena in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

#20 Should this plan come to fruition, Bruin’s rookie goaltender Jeremy Swayman seems likely to lose out on a spot in Boston. In 26 games for the Bruins going back to last season, the 23-year-old goaltender has delivered a .928 save percentage, so it is hardly fair that he would get demoted to make room for Rask but Swayman would not require waivers to go the AHL and Linus Ullmark has a long-term contract with a no-move clause, so the circumstances practically dictate that Swayman will be the one on the outside looking in whenever Rask is deemed ready to handle NHL action once again.

Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY HOCKEY POINTS- 2021-22 – NEW SEASON!

Scott Cullen — Wed, 22 Sep 2021 20:47:12 +0000

Welcome to a new season of 20 Fantasy Points on McKeen’s Hockey. Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

One thing to remember when looking at trends is that they are not intended to be guarantees of future performance. They might provide indicators or probabilities but, sometimes, in a league with more than 700 players, there are exceptions, players that can ride a wave of high percentages.

So here are some stats to consider as we approach the 2021-2022 season, with much more to come leading up to the drop of the puck and throughout the NHL season.

#1 Goal scoring has increased in recent years but was down a little bit last season. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, goals per team per game hovered around 2.98 goals per game. Last season, it was down to just under 2.90 goals per game. That’s not a dramatic decline and the consistency of the range should make it a little more manageable for forecasting purposes. As recently as 2017-2018, the goals per team per game average was 2.72, so we are operating in a world with a little more offense.

#2 One of the paths to finding fantasy hockey value is to go against public perception and one of the factors in public perception, both good and bad, is playoff performance. For that reason, there is probably value to be found in the likes of Pittsburgh goaltender Tristan Jarry after he posted a .888 save percentage in a six-game first-round loss to the Islanders. Similarly, New Jersey winger Tomas Tatar was a healthy scratch for the Montreal Canadiens for most of their run to the Stanley Cup Final, which overshadows that Tatar was comfortably the Habs’ top scorer over the past three seasons. Even Toronto’s Mitch Marner, to some degree, could provide some value here. His past two playoff performances have been entirely forgettable and yet his 228 points in the past three seasons ranks eighth and his 1.16 points per game in that time ranks 10^th.

#3 A common, and more recent way to find value is seeking out players due for regression when it comes to on-ice shooting percentage. This works in both directions but players that have really high on-ice shooting percentages are likely to decline and those that are really low tend to get a bit of a boost. It is not a universal truth but a tendency. Some players who benefited from a high on-ice shooting percentage last season include Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno (15.1 OisH%), Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson (13.8 OiSH%), Seattle’s Jared McCann (13.6 OiSH% with PIttsburgh), Detroit’s Jakub Vrana (13.5 OiSH%), Vegas’ Chandler Stephenson (13.0 OiSH%), and Washington’s Evgeny Kuznetsov (12.9 OiSH%). This does not mean that those players can’t be productive this season, but they are not likely to duplicate those high percentages.

#4 A sustainable on-ice shooting percentage, over a three-year span, ranges between 11 and 12 percent, which is still higher than the vast majority of players can expect. From that group above, Kuznetsov (11.9%), Vrana (11.5%), and Pettersson (11.4%) have had high on-ice shooting percentages more consistently in the past three seasons.

DALLAS, TX - FEBRUARY 23: Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen (4) handles the puck at the blue line during the game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Dallas Stars on February 23, 2019 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX. (Photo by Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire)

#5 On the low end of the on-ice shooting percentage spectrum, there are always going to be grinders who don’t necessarily fall into the fantasy discussion that have very low on-ice shooting percentages. Some players that had low on-ice shooting percentages last season that could reasonably expect better in 2021-2022 include: Detroit’s Dylan Larkin (4.9%), the Islanders’ Kyle Palmieri (5.3%), Nashville’s Filip Forsberg (5.5%), and Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen (5.6%).

#6 Similarly, individual players tend to fall within a reasonable range when it comes to their own shooting percentage. Those that are inflated are likely to come down and the player who is generating shots but not getting goals is likely to have their shooting percentage improve. Again, this is not a hard and fast rule – because Rickard Rakell exists – but a tendency. Some players that had unusually lofty shooting percentages last season include:

Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno (27.5%), whose previous high in a season of at least 20 games, was 13.4%.

St. Louis’ Brandon Saad (22.1% with Colorado), whose career shooting percentage going into last season was 11.4%.

Vegas’ Mark Stone (21.4%) and Stone has been a high-percentage finisher for his career (15.8%) but that’s not 21.4% either.

Washington’s T.J. Oshie (20.8%) which is unsustainably high, but Oshie has been scoring on 17.9% of his shots in six seasons with the Capitals, making hay on that power play, so while he may not score on such a high percentage again, the drop off may not be so dramatic in Oshie’s case.

Seattle’s Alex Wennberg (20.7%) was a notorious pass-first playmaker for his entire career, scoring on 8.0% of his shots prior to last season before he turned sniper with the Florida Panthers. It would be surprising if his shooting percentage did not fall by a significant amount this season.

Chicago’s Alex DeBrincat (20.6%) had a career-low shooting percentage of 8.7% in 2019-2020, so he seemed like a good bet for a bounce-back season in 2021, but that was a dramatic swing.

#7 Whose high shooting percentages can be trusted? In the past three seasons, the shooting percentage leaders (all situations, min. 1000 minutes) are:

Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (20.1%)

Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point (19.2%)

Washington’s T.J. Oshie (19.0%)

Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos (18.2%)

Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele (17.8%)

Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson (17.6%)

#8 On the other hand, some players that uncharacteristically low shooting percentages during the 2021 season:

Montreal’s Jonathan Drouin (2.6%) had a career shooting percentage of 9.7% going into last season.

Buffalo’s Jack Eichel (3.3%) scored on a career-high 15.9% of his shots in 2019-2020 but regression came for him in a big way last season and now he remains in a holding pattern, unsure for which team he will play his next game.

Boston’s Jake DeBrusk (5.4%) had scored on 13.5% of his shots in his first three NHL seasons before his shooting percentage crashed last season.

St. Louis’ Vladimir Tarasenko (6.2%) had never finished an NHL season with a shooting percentage lower than 10.7% prior to last season. Maybe his ongoing shoulder issues played into it, or maybe he was just snakebit, but he finished with just four goals in 24 games.

Buffalo’s Jeff Skinner (6.3%) has had fluctuating shooting percentages throughout his career but after scoring 40 goals on a career-high 14.9% shooting percentage in 2018-2019, he has dropped off dramatically. Can he get it back?

#9 Opportunity is always a driver of fantasy hockey value. Some forwards looking at significant new roles with new teams include Conor Garland, Vancouver; Blake Coleman, Calgary; Zach Hyman, Edmonton; Viktor Arvidsson, Los Angeles; Brandon Saad, St. Louis; Nick Ritchie, Toronto.

#10 On defense, the move to a new team might result in more power play time but the opportunity to play with a different supporting cast can make a difference, too. Here are some defenders that could be looking at beneficial new situations: Ryan Ellis, Philadelphia; Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Vancouer; Vince Dunn, Seattle; Alex Goligoski, Minnesota; Adam Boqvist, Columbus; Shayne Gostisbehere, Arizona. Probably Tony DeAngelo in Carolina, too.

#11 Considering how team-dependent goaltending production tends to be, goaltenders that switch teams might have the greatest change in their fantasy value. Think of how much more appealing Darcy Kuemper is in Colorado than if he had stayed in Arizona. Same for Linus Ullmark in Boston. At the lower end of the goaltender spectrum, Adin Hill could benefit from the move from Arizona to San Jose, at least in terms of having an opportunity to play more.

#12 The opposite side of that coin is the goaltenders that moved to teams that are not likely to be as strong as the team they left and that will put a dent into their fantasy value. Philipp Grubauer moving from Colorado to Seattle and Marc-Andre Fleury going from Vegas to Chicago are a couple of notable examples. Alex Nedeljkovic likely faces a worse team in front of him in Detroit, after playing in Carolina, but also has a likelihood of handling a starter’s role for a full season, so there are trade-offs to consider.

ANAHEIM, CA - MARCH 10: Anaheim Ducks Left Wing Trevor Zegras (46) in action during a game against the Los Angeles Kings played on March 10, 2021 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

#13 The NHL has rules governing rookie eligibility and one of the main facets is that players can not have played 26 or more games in a previous NHL season. Here are some players that are officially rookies that flashed some potential in 2021: Trevor Zegras, Anaheim; Jamie Drysdale, Anaheim; Tanner Jeannot, Nashville; Wade Allison, Philadephia; Shane Pinto, Ottawa; Cole Caufield, Montreal, and Evan Bouchard, Edmonton.

#14 Connor McDavid scored 105 points in 56 games to lead the league last season. Pro-rated over an 82-game season, Leon Draisaitl and Brad Marchand would have hit 100 points last season, too. How many players could score 100 points in an 82-game 2021-2022 season? Since 2015-2016, there have been 13 100-point seasons recorded in the NHL. McDavid has four, Nikita Kucherov, Patrick Kane and Draisaitl have two, while Marchand, Claude Giroux, and Sidney Crosby each have one.

#15 Can anyone catch McDavid for the scoring title this season? It won’t be easy, since a pro-rated total at last season’s scoring rate (1.88 points per game) would give McDavid 154 points. The closest contenders would seem to be Kucherov, who scored 128 points (1.56 points per game) in 2018-2019, Draisaitl, who tallied 110 points (1.55 points per game) in 2019-2020, and perhaps Artemi Panarin, who has back-to-back seasons with 1.38 points per game for the New York Rangers.

#16 One measure of interest when it comes to forecasting player point totals is individual point production (IPP) because it shows the percentage of points that a player is involved in relative to the number of goals for which they are on the ice. Some players have more of the offense run through them so, naturally, their percentages will be higher, but an IPP that is atypically high is not likely to be duplicated. Some players coming off a season with a high all-situations IPP include Toronto’s Jason Spezza (90.9%, Minnesota’s Mats Zuccarello (87.5%), N.Y. Rangers’ Artemi Panarin (84.1%), Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (84.0%), St. Louis’ David Perron (82.9%), and San Jose’s Tomas Hertl (82.7%).

#17 On the other hand, some players who might expect an IPP boost this season compared to last include: St. Louis’ Robert Thomas (46.2%), Nashville’s Matt Duchene (46.4%), N.Y. Rangers’ Chris Kreider (46.2%), Nashville’s Ryan Johansen (47.8%), and Colorado’s J.T. Compher (48.7%)

VANCOUVER, BC - MARCH 06: Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) waits for a face-off during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on March 6, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#18 While McDavid running away with the points race was amazing, Auston Matthews had a comfortable margin in the race for the Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s leading goal scorer, tucking in 41 goals, eight more than McDavid, who was in second place. Who are Matthews’ top challengers? Well, naturally McDavid should be considered and it would be insulting not to include Alex Ovechkin, who has led the league in goals nine times, but outside of that group, maybe Boston’s David Pastrnak, who scored 48 goals in 2019-2020 or, conceivably, Chicago’s Patrick Kane or Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov, who are two of six players to have multiple 40-goal seasons since 2015-2016 (the others being Matthews, McDavid, Draisaitl, and Ovechkin).

#19 The darkhorse candidate could be Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, who has never scored more than 41 goals in a season and is coming off a year in which he managed just 20 goals in 48 games but MacKinnon consistently generates more than four shots on goal per game season after season and if he puts up 350-plus shots in an 82-game season, it is possible that MacKinnon could score 50 goals and that would put him into the mix.

#20 Shot volume is an important indicator when it comes to goals. Since 2015-2016, there has been one season in which a player scored 30 goals and did not have more than two shots on goal per game – New Jersey’s Adam Henrique, in 2015-2016, scored 30 goals on just 1.86 shots per game. In that time, there is only one player to have multiple 30 goal seasons while generating fewer than 2.5 shots on goal per game and that is Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele.

FANTASY HOCKEY: PLAYOFF POOL STRATEGIES, TIPS AND PICKLIST

Scott Cullen — Fri, 14 May 2021 23:07:40 +0000

PLAYOFF POOL STRATEGIES

As unusual as the 2021 NHL season has been, the playoff is still a little different than in previous seasons – with staggered starts and different divisional setups – but it is close enough to a normal 16-team playoff that regular playoff pool strategies will still apply.

These guidelines for playoff pool drafting offer no guarantees. This is all about giving your team the best chance to succeed.

DIVERSIFY YOUR APPROACH

In general, the foundation for drafting a fantasy pool team is to pick from four different teams so that you have some room for error and have a chance at having representatives on each team in the third round of the playoffs.

It is possible to put all your eggs in one basket and if you draft 10 players from one team and that teams wins the Stanley Cup, you probably will win your pool. But there is a law of diminishing returns, too.

Consider that Anthony Cirelli ranked 10^th on the Tampa Bay Lightning playoff scoring last year with 10 points. If you somehow got all of Tampa Bay’s top ten scorers then, yes, you would likely run away with your playoff pool.

But Tampa Bay was expected to be a Cup contender last year, so the odds were heavily against being able to draft all three of Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman. If you don’t get all of the top guys, then you end up in competition with others for the supporting players, which is fine, but it also means that you are not going to get all of Tampa Bay’s Top 10 even with an “all-in” strategy and suddenly you’re down to the likes of Pat Maroon and Barclay Goodrow and there might be better scoring options elsewhere.

Ultimately, depending on how your draft shakes out, this could mean being prepared to take players from at least one underdog because if everyone only takes players from favored teams, the pool of players gets shallow in a hurry.

STACKING STILL OKAY

The plan to diversify has overall value but that does not preclude you from grabbing players on the same line so that you might be able to score multiple points on the same goal. If you’re liking the new-look Boston Bruins since the trade deadline, maybe it’s worth considering not just Taylor Hall but linemates David Krejci or Craig Smith, too. Zach Hyman is out there just waiting to be paired with Auston Matthews or Mitch Marner.

DON’T PLAY BOTH SIDES IN THE FIRST ROUND

The Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals have had recent playoff success and there might be players on both teams that you like for playoff pool purposes but if you take players from both of those teams that guarantees that you won’t have a full roster in Round Two. I will offer a tiny exception to this rule and that is if you are heading to the end of your draft and the best player on an underdog is still available then that might make some sense as a hedging option because there may be greater upside in taking Filip Forsberg and hoping that Nashville can pull off an upset than grabbing another third-line winger from a favored team.

POWER PLAY MATTERS – ESPECIALLY ON DEFENSE

EDMONTON, AB - FEBRUARY 27: Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Tyson Barrie (22) in action in the second period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Toronto Maple Leafs on February 27, 2021 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

Finding value in small samples means that power plays tend to have an outsized importance in playoff hockey. In the 2019-2020 regular season, for example, teams averaged 4:44 of 5-on-4 time per game. In the playoffs of that same season, teams played 5:37 per game. That is an increase of more than 18%. 5-on-4 goal production went from 0.545 goals per game in the regular season to 0.624 per game in the playoffs: an increase of more than 14%.

Obviously, more goals are scored at even strength, so that should not be ignored, but a role on the first power play unit certainly works as a useful tie-breaker among players that might be close in terms of expected value.

That also means that the defenseman who quarterbacks a team’s power play can have a major impact. In last year’s playoffs, three of the top seven scorers overall were defensemen – Dallas Stars duo Miro Heiskanen and John Klingberg as well as Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman. Vegas Golden Knights blueliner Shea Theodore, Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes, and Colorado’s Cale Makar finished in the Top 25, too.

In 2019, Alex Pietrangelo, Torey Krug, Erik Karlsson, and Brent Burns were all among the Top 15 playoff scorers.

By way of comparison, there were two defensemen in the Top 25 in regular season scoring in 2019-2020: John Carlson finished 12^th and Roman Josi 24^th.

This season, Tyson Barrie is the highest scoring defenseman, with 48 points in 55 games, and he ranks 33^rd. You can take it to the bank that the highest scoring defenseman in the playoffs will finish higher than 33^rd in playoff scoring.

ST. PAUL, MN - JANUARY 31: Minnesota Wild Right Wing Kirill Kaprizov (97) controls the puck during an NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and the Colorado Avalanche on January 31, 2021, at Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

TARGET PLAYERS WITH LATE MOMENTUM

This does not mean that a player who had a good week or two is suddenly a star but if circumstances changed, it would make sense to take that into account.

Who are some notable players that have produced more since the trade deadline? These aren’t the first line stars, necessarily, but players who performed better down the stretch of this season.

Boston C David Krejci 21 points (6 G, 15 A) in 16 games

Minnesota C Nick Bonino 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in 16 games

Toronto C John Tavares 17 points (7 G, 10 A) in 14 games

Minnesota LW Kirill Kaprizov 17 points (11 G, 6 A) in 15 games

Montreal C Nick Suzuki 17 points (8 G, 9 A) in 18 games

Florida RW Anthony Duclair 16 points (6 G, 10 A) in 14 games

Florida C Sam Bennett 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 10 games

Boston LW Taylor Hall 14 points (8 G, 6 A) in 14 games

Vegas C Chandler Stephenson 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 16 games

TARGET PLAYERS WITH PREVIOUS PLAYOFF SUCCESS

Some players have been able to perform at a high level in the playoffs and it can be one thing for a star player to just carry on what they were doing in the regular season but supporting players who can keep scoring in the postseason, when the opposition is better, do hold added appeal. This does not mean to abandon a player who has not yet had playoff scoring success because it is more important to get good players in good situations rather than worrying about what they have done in small playoff samples.

Over the past decade, these are some supporting players who have had some relative postseason scoring success in the postseason.

Pittsburgh LW Jake Guentzel 46 points (25 G, 21 A) in 45 games

Nashville C Matt Duchene 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 16 games

Boston LW Taylor Hall 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in 14 games

Vegas RW Reilly Smith 55 points (19 G, 36 A) in 65 games

Nashville C Ryan Johansen 48 points (16 G, 32 A) in 57 games

Colorado C Nazem Kadri 28 points (12 G, 16 A) in 34 games

Boston C David Krejci 71 points (21 G, 50 A) in 93 games

Winnipeg C Pierre-Luc Dubois 19 points (8 G, 11 A) in 26 games

Pittsburgh RW Jeff Carter 53 points (26 G, 27 A) in 73 games

Florida C Sam Bennett 19 points (8 G, 11 A) in 30 games

GET LUCKY

This one is out of your control but preparation and a strategy going into a playoff draft at least gives you an opportunity to have success. Maybe you need an upset or two. Maybe you need a player to go on a percentage-fueled scoring run. It can happen. Players and teams get hot and in a 16-team tournament, that can make all the difference.

HOCKEY POOL DRAFT/PICK LIST

Here is a playoff draft list, top 150 skaters plus 21 goaltenders, based on Colorado over Tampa Bay, with Toronto and Boston reaching the semifinal. Obviously, individual preferences for the playoffs make a big difference in expected games played. Use this as a guide, but trust your own research and instincts. If you need a quick list this should see you through.

RK	PLAYER	TEAM
1	Nathan MacKinnon	COL
2	Mikko Rantanen	COL
3	Nikita Kucherov	TB
4	Brayden Point	TB
5	Connor McDavid	EDM
6	Cale Makar	COL
7	Brad Marchand	BOS
8	Mitch Marner	TOR
9	Auston Matthews	TOR
10	Gabriel Landeskog	COL
11	Leon Draisaitl	EDM
12	Steven Stamkos	TB
13	Victor Hedman	TB
14	David Pastrnak	BOS
15	John Tavares	TOR
16	Patrice Bergeron	BOS
17	Sidney Crosby	PIT
18	Ondrej Palat	TB
19	Nazem Kadri	COL
20	Andre Burakovsky	COL
21	David Krejci	BOS
22	Taylor Hall	BOS
23	William Nylander	TOR
24	Sebastian Aho	CAR
25	Jake Guentzel	PIT
26	Mark Stone	VGK
27	Evgeni Malkin	PIT
28	Alex Killorn	TB
29	Yanni Gourde	TB
30	Zach Hyman	TOR
31	Max Pacioretty	VGK
32	Andrei Svechnikov	CAR
33	Kris Letang	PIT
34	Sam Girard	COL
35	Blake Coleman	TB
36	Devon Toews	COL
37	Shea Theodore	VGK
38	Joonas Donskoi	COL
39	Tyler Johnson	TB
40	Morgan Rielly	TOR
41	Jonathan Marchessault	VGK
42	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	EDM
43	Mikhail Sergachev	TB
44	Charlie McAvoy	BOS
45	Craig Smith	BOS
46	William Karlsson	VGK
47	Reilly Smith	VGK
48	Martin Necas	CAR
49	Teuvo Teravainen	CAR
50	Dougie Hamilton	CAR
51	J.T. Compher	COL
52	Tyson Barrie	EDM
53	Jason Spezza	TOR
54	Anthony Cirelli	TB
55	Joe Thornton	TOR
56	Mathieu Joseph	TB
57	Jake Muzzin	TOR
58	Mike Reilly	BOS
59	Nick Foligno	TOR
60	Jordan Staal	CAR
61	Jeff Carter	PIT
62	Alex Tuch	VGK
63	Bryan Rust	PIT
64	Alex Pietrangelo	VGK
65	Jared McCann	PIT
66	Kasperi Kapanen	PIT
67	Mark Scheifele	WPG
68	Matt Grzelcyk	BOS
69	Charlie Coyle	BOS
70	Chandler Stephenson	VGK
71	Aleksander Barkov	FLA
72	Ryan O'Reilly	STL
73	Nicklas Backstrom	WSH
74	Alex Ovechkin	WSH
75	Darnell Nurse	EDM
76	Kirill Kaprizov	MIN
77	Jonathan Huberdeau	FLA
78	Mathew Barzal	NYI
79	David Perron	STL
80	Filip Forsberg	NSH
81	Blake Wheeler	WPG
82	Evgeny Kuznetsov	WSH
83	Vincent Trocheck	CAR
84	John Carlson	WSH
85	Kyle Connor	WPG
86	T.J. Oshie	WSH
87	Tyler Toffoli	MTL
88	Nick Suzuki	MTL
89	Valeri Nichushkin	COL
90	Alex Kerfoot	TOR
91	Jesse Puljujarvi	EDM
92	Alex Newhook	COL
93	Mats Zuccarello	MIN
94	Josh Bailey	NYI
95	Nikolaj Ehlers	WPG
96	Torey Krug	STL
97	Carter Verhaeghe	FLA
98	Ryan Johansen	NSH
99	Mike Hoffman	STL
100	Anthony Duclair	FLA
101	Kevin Fiala	MIN
102	Patric Hornqvist	FLA
103	Jordan Eberle	NYI
104	Vladimir Tarasenko	STL
105	Brandon Saad	COL
106	Tyson Jost	COL
107	Nick Ritchie	BOS
108	Alec Martinez	VGK
109	Brock Nelson	NYI
110	Pierre-Luc Dubois	WPG
111	Sam Bennett	FLA
112	Roman Josi	NSH
113	Brendan Gallagher	MTL
114	Jaden Schwartz	STL
115	Brayden Schenn	STL
116	Anthony Mantha	WSH
117	James Neal	EDM
118	Nino Niederreiter	CAR
119	Brett Pesce	CAR
120	Teddy Blueger	PIT
121	Brandon Tanev	PIT
122	Warren Foegele	CAR
123	Barclay Goodrow	TB
124	Tomas Nosek	VGK
125	Jason Zucker	PIT
126	Jesper Fast	CAR
127	Kailer Yamamoto	EDM
128	Frederick Gaudreau	PIT
129	Dominik Kahun	EDM
130	Anthony Beauvillier	NYI
131	Paul Stastny	WPG
132	Kyle Palmieri	NYI
133	Justin Schultz	WSH
134	Neal Pionk	WPG
135	Alex Chiasson	EDM
136	Keith Yandle	FLA
137	Andrew Copp	WPG
138	Jordan Kyrou	STL
139	Tom Wilson	WSH
140	Lars Eller	WSH
141	MacKenzie Weegar	FLA
142	Mikael Granlund	NSH
143	Jeff Petry	MTL
144	Ryan Ellis	NSH
145	Cole Caufield	MTL
146	Tyler Bozak	STL
147	Viktor Arvidsson	NSH
148	Nick Bonino	MIN
149	Tomas Tatar	MTL
150	Jared Spurgeon	MIN

RK	GOALTENDER	TEAM
1	Philipp Grubauer	COL
2	Andrei Vasilevskiy	TB
3	Jack Campbell	TOR
4	Tuukka Rask	BOS
5	Robin Lehner	VGK
6	Petr Mrazek	CAR
7	Mike Smith	EDM
8	Tristan Jarry	PIT
9	Connor Hellebuyck	WPG
10	Juuse Saros	NSH
11	Carey Price	MTL
12	Jordan Binnington	STL
13	Semyon Varlamov	NYI
14	Cam Talbot	MIN
15	Sergei Bobrovsky	FLA
16	Vitek Vanecek	WSH
17	Chris Driedger	FLA
18	Marc-Andre Fleury	VGK
19	Alex Nedeljkovic	CAR
20	Jeremy Swayman	BOS
21	Frederik Andersen	TOR