Samuel Montembeault – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Slow starters and potential turnarounds – Good starts worth tracking

Scott Cullen — Fri, 24 Oct 2025 18:40:55 +0000

Philadelphia Flyers right wing Matvei Michkov (39) (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, a look at slow starters, like Matvei Michkov, Sam Reinhart, Evan Bouchard, and Nikolaj Ehlers. Also, players to track including Cutter Gauthier, Emmitt Finnie, Josh Doan and more!

#1 After a strong showing as a rookie, when he produced 63 points (26 G, 37 A) in 80 games, Flyers right winger Matvei Michkov has crashed early in this season. Head coach Rick Tocchet has brought up Michkov’s conditioning as an issue, and he has seen his ice time drop from 16:48 per game to 15:02 per game. Michkov has just two points (1 G, 1 A) with 13 shots on goal in seven games. With reduced ice time and a poor first impression on the new head coach, Michkov might be a prime wait-and-see candidate. He is going to get better, but fantasy managers can wait to see some progress before diving in to get him. While Michkov struggles, there is some upside to be found with Noah Cates and Tyson Foerster, solid secondary scorers. Cates is an excellent two-way player who has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 15 shots on goal in seven games and Foerster is continuing to make progress. He has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 13 shots on goal through seven games.

#2 The Tampa Bay Lightning have staggered out of the gate, managing a 1-4-2 record through seven games, and while goaltending might be a greater concern, left winger Brandon Hagel is having trouble generating offence, with zero goals, one assist, and 18 shots on goal through those seven games. Hagel is coming off a career-high 90 points (35 G, 55 A) last season when he had an on-ice shooting percentage of 11.1 percent, which was also his career high. Regression has come for him early in this season, with an on-ice shooting percentage of 2.1 percent. What is encouraging about Hagel is that he does have 14 shots on goal in his past four games, so it appears that he is still getting chances and ought to break out of this early season slump.

#3 With Aleksander Barkov injured, it has been a difficult start to the season for Florida Panthers right winger Sam Reinhart, who has four points (3 G, 1 A) through nine games, but only one of those four points has come during five-on-five play, so it’s tough to be too optimistic about his production going forward. With the Panthers juggling lines early in the season, Reinhart has had several linemates but is currently skating on a line with Sam Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe. In 39 minutes with Bennett as his centre, Reinhart has a 45.3 percent Corsi, so there are still some things to work out if he is going to get back on track.

#4 Even though he has put 27 shots on goal in eight games, Edmonton Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard has contributed just two assists through eight games. The shot rate, along with his position as the quarterback on the Oilers’ vaunted power play, history does suggest that Bouchard’s offensive production should pick up, but this is a slow start for a player who ranked third among defencemen in scoring over the previous two seasons, when he had 149 points (32 G, 117 A) in 163 games.

#5 The Calgary Flames are winless in their past seven games and star blueliner Mackenzie Weegar has just two assists and 13 shots on goal in eight games. Even though he has positive shot differentials, the Flames have been outscored 10-4 with Weegar on the ice for five-on-five play. He is playing a career-high 24:50 per game so the opportunities should be there, but it’s worth keeping tabs on Weegar’s shot rate as he is averaging 1.63 shots on goal per game, compared to 2.27 shots per game last season. It’s not just Weegar, either. Nazem Kadri is playing 20:33 per game, which would be 1:12 over his previous career high, set last season, and has zero goals and four assists with 20 shots on goal in eight games. His possession game has been solid and getting Jonathan Huberdeau back recently should help, so Kadri might be a buy-low style option right now.

#6 Thought to be a free agent prize for the Carolina Hurricanes in the summer, Nikolaj Ehlers has stumbled early, recording two assists in seven games. He has 22 shots, so his shot rate is strong, and he is playing more than he did in Winnipeg while controlling 56.9 percent of expected goals at five on five, so it should get better for Ehlers. Like, he probably won’t continue at a 20-point pace, but he is still waiting to break out. Given the strength of the Hurricanes as a team, they should be able to drag Ehlers back into a more typically productive spot.

#7 New Jersey Devils defenceman Dougie Hamilton has just one assist through seven games, and while he does have 18 shots on goal, that would be his lowest per-game shot rate since 2016-2017. This doesn’t mean that he’s cooked for fantasy managers, necessarily, because he is still playing more than 21 minutes per game and quarterbacking the Devils’ top power play unit, but it’s fair to have some concerns about his early results and if he continues to struggle, Luke Hughes could start getting more power play time.

#8 One of the best breakout stories last season, when he scored 26 goals and 63 points, St. Louis Blues left winger Dylan Holloway is playing a couple more minutes per game this season – up over 19 minutes per game – but has just two points (1 G, 1 A) and 14 shots on goal through seven games. He is still a fixture on the top power play unit and most recently has moved to the second line with Brayden Schenn and Jake Neighbours, but Holloway bears watching because that line isn’t a sure thing and if he continues to slump, his ice time could start to slip, too.

#9 When Carolina Hurricanes left winger Andrei Svechnikov finished with 48 points (20 G, 28 A) in 72 games last season, it was his lowest points per game since his rookie season in 2018-2019. That put him in the position to have a bounce-back season in 2025-2026 but that is not off to a great start. He has zero points with 14 shots on goal in seven games and is averaging 14:38 of ice time per game, which would be a career low for him. He has been demoted to the fourth line so he is in Rod Brind’Amour’s doghouse, but with William Carrier and Eric Robinson getting hurt in Colorado on Thursday, there might be a chance for Svechnikov to move back up the depth chart, despite his miserable start to the season.

#10 After setting career highs with 37 goals and 60 points a couple of years ago, Frank Vatrano had 21 goals and 45 points last season but has fallen off a proverbial cliff to start this season. His ice time has dropped from 17:33 per game to 13:08 per game and he has just one assist through seven games. He is currently skating with Mason McTavish and Beckett Sennecke on the Ducks’ second line, but in their 16 minutes of five-on-five play the trio has been crushed, getting out-Corsi’d 30-4 (11.8 CF%).

#11 Following a solid rookie season when he finished fifth in Calder Trophy voting, scoring 20 goals and 44 points, Anaheim Ducks left winger Cutter Gauthier looks like he is ready to take a step forward this season. He has six points (5 G, 1 A) and 31 shots on goal in his first seven games, and that shot rate is very enticing. He is on the top line with Leo Carlsson and Alex Killorn and getting second unit power play time, but Gauthier has a higher offensive ceiling than many of the forwards in Anaheim and his role should ultimately reflect that.

#12 The Ottawa Senators need some answers in goal. Linus Ullmark, who has been excellent across the past four seasons, is struggling early, with a .867 save percentage and -5.36 Goals Saved Above Expected in seven starts. It’s early and considering his track record, he should recover, but the Senators need it. Rookie Leevi Merilainen was awesome in a dozen games last season but had a disastrous first start of this season, allowing seven goals on 26 shots. For a team with playoff expectations, they can’t get by with this kind of play between the pipes.

#13 The Senators aren’t the only team with goaltending concerns, in fact not even the only team in the Atlantic Division. Samuel Montembeault had an impressive 2024-2025 season for the Montreal Canadiens, but has a miserable .842 save percentage, with -6.79 Goals Saved Above Expected, in five starts and with that kind of play could be losing time to Jakub Dobes. In his first four starts, Dobes has a .950 save percentage and 8.33 Goals Saved Above Expected. Small samples, sure, but if Montembeault doesn’t improve quickly, Dobes is going to force his way into more starts.

#14 Vegas Golden Knights captain Mark Stone has landed on long-term injured reserve with a wrist injury and while Stone being on LTIR is not a surprise – he has missed 126 games in the past four seasons – it’s taking a player with 13 points (2 G, 11 A) in six games this season out of the lineup. Brandon Saad has moved to the top line, alongside Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev, and will that help get him back on track? He has one assist in seven games, but it happened in Vegas’ last game when he played a season-high 16:32 in the Golden Knights’ first game this season without Stone.

#15 Okay, there has been enough negativity, or at least concern, this week. Let’s look at an unheralded rookie who is showing up for the Detroit Red Wings. Emmitt Finnie was a seventh-round pick in 2023 and not only has he made the roster to start the season, but he’s producing while skating at left wing on the first line alongside Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat. Finnie had 84 points (37 G, 47 A) in 55 games for Kamloops in the WHL last season before finishing the year in the AHL, where he had five points (1 G, 4 A) in 13 (regular season plus playoff) games. That late-season audition seems to have helped him adjust to the pro game and he does have seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 15 shots on goal in eight games. One area of concern is that the Red Wings are on the wrong side of the possession game, with 45.8 CF% and 47.5 xGF%, when Finnie is on the ice.

#16 A strong complementary piece in New Jersey, Dawson Mercer probably has more value when he is on the wing, skating with their premier centres, but is getting first unit power play time and has recently shifted into a third-line centre role with Cody Glass injured. Mercer has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 13 shots on goal in seven games and is playing a career-high 18:05 per game.

#17 Last season, Vancouver Canucks right winger Conor Garland saw his ice time jump by more than four minutes per game to 18:39 per game and he had the second 50-point season of his career. This season, his ice time is up to 20:36 per game and he’s making a bigger impact with seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 22 shots on goal in eight games. He’s landed on the top line with Elias Pettersson and Evander Kane, which requires dragging them forward to some degree right now, but the Canucks are giving Garland a good opportunity.

#18 Perhaps considered the second asset, behind defenceman Michael Kesselring, in the J.J. Peterka trade to Utah, Josh Doan is making his case that he can be a significant player for the Sabres. He has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past four games and is getting first unit power play time in addition to his regular second-line role with Ryan McLeod and Alex Tuch. If he sticks in that spot, then Doan’s production can continue.

#19 After missing most of last season with a torn ACL, Anthony Mantha was an inexpensive free agent signing by the Pittsburgh Penguins in the summer. He has stepped into a top six role and delivered six points (3 G, 3 A) with 16 shots on goal in his first eight games with the Penguins and has joined Evgeni Malkin and Justin Brazeau on a towering second line in Pittsburgh. Mantha is a three-time 20-goal scorer who has the skill to do it again and is getting the right opportunity with the Penguins.

#20 Ryan Donato erupted for career highs with 31 goals and 62 points last season with the Chicago Blackhawks and while he failed to register a point in the first three games this season, he has since picked up the pace, putting up seven points (5 G, 2 A) with 13 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. Donato’s most common linemates have been Ilya Mikheyev and Jason Dickinson, but he has moved around the lineup quite a bit, with seven different Blackhawks forwards combining for points with Donato already this season.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – MONTREAL CANADIENS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Fri, 10 Oct 2025 15:00:05 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 05: Montreal Canadiens right wing Cole Caufield (13) skates in warm ups before a Los Angeles Kings game versus the Montreal Canadiens on February 5th, 2025, at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire)

For the past couple of years, the anticipation that’s built around the Canadiens rebuild and wondering when they’d finally emerge came to fruition. Montreal finished with the second wild card after putting up 91 points, a 15-point improvement from the previous year, and held off Columbus and Detroit for the final playoff spot and their first playoff berth since they went to the Stanley Cup Final in 2021. On paper, the Canadiens numbers weren’t exactly electrifying. At five-on-five they had the fifth lowest CorsiFor and expected goals for percentages. They allowed the eighth most goals at five-on-five and were tied for 18th in goals scored. Their power play was 21st in the league but they had the ninth best penalty kill. A great season from starting goalie Samuel Montembeault (.902 save percentage, four shutouts) was a key reason for their success and backup Jakub Dobes (7-4-3, .909 save percentage) made Cayden Primeau expendable. They were also buoyed by an incredible Calder Trophy-winning season from defenceman Lane Hutson who had 66 points and was third on the team in scoring behind 30-goal scorers Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.

What’s Changed?

Montreal was able to leverage their cap space and draft assets to make one of the biggest moves of the summer. The Canadiens acquired defenceman Noah Dobson in a sign-and-trade deal from the New York Islanders for Emil Heineman and two 2025 first-round picks. Dobson signed an eight-year, $76 million extension and by adding Dobson, the Canadiens have yet another high-end puck-moving offensive defenceman to go with Hutson. Coach Martin St. Louis likes his team to play high-intensity, fast hockey to get up and down the ice and with Hutson and Dobson they can do that much more often. As big as the Dobson move was, the rest of the summer was quiet. Defenceman Logan Mailloux was sent to St. Louis for promising forward Zack Bolduc and goalie Cayden Primeau was traded to Carolina for a pick. They also added forwards Samuel Blais and Joseph Veleno on one-year deals.

What Would Success Look Like?

If the Canadiens can continue where they left off last season and use their playoff appearance against Washington to spur them forward into perhaps a battle for second or third place in the Atlantic Division, that would show the path they’ve carved out in this rebuild continues to be the right one. While they’ve got aspects of their game to clean up all around, getting high-end performances from Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson, Dobson, Juraj Slafkovský and Patrik Laine again would make a very exciting team infinitely more dangerous to play against. Whether it’s Montembeault or Dobes who take control in net might be worth keeping an eye on, but the balance struck last season worked well. Montreal’s style of play and high-end talent make them exciting and if that can all be honed more, this is a team that can be frustrating for years to come.

What Could Go Wrong?

Montreal seemed to win despite having average-to-below-average shot and expected goal numbers and if the good fortune and goaltending that allowed them to buck those trends fails them, they’ll be in a battle to try and make the postseason in what could be a very crowded field, particularly in the Atlantic. Between Ottawa, Detroit, Buffalo, Boston, Columbus, the New York Rangers and Islanders, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, things get messy fast in the East. Any slip-ups and losing streaks can dunk a team in the bottom of the standings and make up ground when everyone is so even is extremely difficult. Suzuki and Caufield must lead the pace while Slafkovský continue to press forward in his own development as a power forward. The balance between Dobson and Hutson bears watching too. Chemistry will be tested.

Top Breakout Candidate

With all the young talent in Montreal to watch, the biggest one to keep an eye on this season is Ivan Demidov. The Canadiens first-round pick in 2024, fifth overall, left his team in Russia last season and joined the team late in the regular season and playoffs. In two games he had a goal and an assist and in five playoff games against the Capitals he had two assists. At 6-foot-1, 190 pounds he’s a handful to defend with his moves, speed and skills. Plugging him into Montreal’s top six forward group makes this exciting team even more fascinating to watch. Expect more Calder hype to come for Demidov, he’ll be a blast to watch.

FORWARDS

Nick Suzuki

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	33	57	90	1.10

The leader of Montreal’s surge to the playoffs, Nick Suzuki turned a lot of heads last season. After years of debates of whether he can be a 1C on a contending team, he carried Montreal’s offence on his back to get them from a lottery team to a playoff spot. How good was he? His point-pace after the Four Nations break would put him in company with some of the league’s elites. Getting on the scoresheet every night and seeing his responsibility with his ice-time reaching 21 minutes a game by March. Always a workhorse in the defensive zone and in the transition game, Suzuki’s offence reaching the next level was always a work in progress. Something clicked the last two season with him shooting the puck more and playing with more pace off the rush. Areas where he’s improved the most is playing the give-and-go game and creating more sustained offence. Last season was the most shots per 60 minutes he created off the cycle in his career, as most of his offence was primarily off the rush in previous seasons. This is what can make a great playmaker like him turn into an elite one, as it’s tougher to create chances when the game isn’t open and space is hard to come by. Suzuki took a huge step in improving his game here and it bodes well for him long-term. Repeating what he did in the second half will be difficult, but the Habs don’t have any questions of who to build their roster around now.

Cole Caufield

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	42	34	76	0.93

While Suzuki was the engine of Montreal’s run to the playoffs, Caufield was the motor all season long. He reaped some of the benefits of Suzuki’s playmaking as a small, pure shooter who gets lost in the weeds of the offensive zone. Doesn’t always need great setups to score, but his own play is enhanced when surrounded by elite playmaking. He led the NHL in shots off high danger passes last season, which was a product of his linemates and Caufield’s own instincts as a goal-scorer. Helped him become a high-20’s goal guy to someone who could push 40 over multiple seasons. The nice thing about Caufield is his game isn’t one-dimensional, and he doesn’t always need to be the shooter. Him, Suzuki and Slafkovksy did a great job of reading off each other and Caufield added another wrinkle to his game by passing from areas that he typically shoots from, giving his linemates tap-in chances for easy goals. He’s also grown as a player who can help drive the play in the neutral zone, gaining more confidence with making plays across the line rather than chipping it in. The only area where his size has set him back is as a defensive player. He’s not a good enough puck-carrier to dodge forecheckers and can have shifts where he’s stuck in his own zone when he’s the one leading the exit. It’s something Monteral can live with if he produces like he did last season. Caufield is one of the league’s young stars and entering his prime.

Juraj Slavkovsky

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	27	34	61	0.75

While his point total might not show it, those who watch Montreal will tell you Slafkovsky turned a corner this past season. Moved to the top line, Slafkovsky reaped the benefits of playing with the Habs two best players and finally showed some high-level skill. He was one of the best forwards in the league at setting up high danger passes, using that long reach to win pucks behind the goal line and showing the finesse that got him drafted first overall. He was also a critical piece in the defensive zone, taking some of the heat off Suzuki starting most of the breakouts and giving them a little more stability than Caufield did with getting pucks out. It’s still hard to say if he’s a future star or a third wheel on the top line because most of the skills he is rated best at are better utilized when paired with an elite talent. A good example being how most of his shots came off deflections and one-timers and how most of his setups were from behind the goal line or across the slot. Those are great qualities to have, but not the most repeatable on a year-to-year basis if you’re not going to be with the same linemates. That said, Slafkovsky progressed in the skills that are more repeatable too. His ability to gain the zone with control has improved dramatically since his rookie year. His shot assist rate is also climbing to a first line level after two seasons of bad to mediocre numbers. Slafkovsky is more involved in the play in general and Montreal is hoping that he will keep adding to his toolbox next season. He’s setup nicely to be a contributor on the top line, but taking the next step to becoming someone who can drive his own line is what you want to see from him as he gets older.

Zack Bolduc

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	24	18	42	0.56

The Blues moving on from Bolduc was a little surprising even if they weren’t expecting him to sustain a goal scoring pace of 16 percent. He had somewhat of a roller coaster rookie season with 19 goals despite multiple games as a healthy scratch and inconsistent deployment. The St. Louis top six isn’t an easy group to break into, and the deck was stacked against him with Jake Neighbours scoring more and locking down one of those spots. Combine that with the team wanting to put newcomer Jimmy Snuggerud on the top line and Bolduc might have become expendable. He’s an intriguing player, who isn’t big but uses his upper body well to separate himself from defenders to get to pucks first. His wrist shot is hard, deceptive and he’s very good at using his body to “catch” pucks in the slot and settle them down from there. Uses his feet well to chase down pucks and he’s very quick at making passes along the wall, both to set up shots and help exit the zone. The Blues liked him enough to use him in the bumper spot on the power play, where he scored seven of his goals. He has a lot of tools Montreal can use as a deceptive scorer in the middle of the roster. He has the most balanced all-around skillset of the players he’s competing with for a top six spot and his track record of scoring on lower lines should also give him an edge.

Patrik Laine

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
55	20	17	37	0.67

Looking to restart his career, Laine’s season almost began on a disastrous note after taking a brutal knee-on-knee collision in his first preseason game. Thankfully, he didn’t require surgery, and his first year in Montreal was what you would expect from the young Finn. Recording yet another 20-goal season with 15 of them coming on the power play, there wasn’t much that changed with Laine. He’s always going to score at 30+ goal pace but will rarely ever play 82 games and his five-on-five play is always going to be erratic. For as much as he likes to shoot the puck on the power play, he deferred to the point a lot when playing at even strength and only shot unless he could get himself set up for a great chance. The quality over quantity approach isn’t a bad thing, but taking things to an extreme degree has been the problem with Laine over his career. He likes being the first player on the puck in the defensive zone to skate it out but has never been good when having to fight a forechecker for it, getting knocked off the play and turning it over frequently. He’s never been a fast player and knee injuries have made him look like he is skating on concrete at times, which limits his game to that of a one-dimensional power play specialist. He might have a grace period with all the injuries he’s battled, but there is going to be some heat for his roster spot next season with rookie Ivan Demidov and newcomer Zach Bolduc in the fold now.

Kirby Dach

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	15	17	32	0.46

The lanky centerman is still an unfinished product and Montreal still doesn’t know what they have in him with Dach spending more time on injured reserve than on the ice. A torn ACL cost him his entire 2023-24 season, and he was limited to only 54 games last season after having surgery on his knee again. He’s a tall player who can skate fluidly and protect the puck well. Using his teammates has been his drawback, has he has tunnel vision in the offensive zone, and the game slows down for him to a troubling degree after he gains the line. He is very deliberate with his decision making both off the rush and on cycles, but he isn’t precise with his passing and a lot of plays die on his stick. He tried to make up for it last season by playing more of a net-front role alongside Alex Newhook and Patrik Laine, which was a fit stylistically with Dach using his big body as a screen. Converting on rebounds was the challenge for him, as it would take him a couple of tries to finally locate the puck when it was loose around the net. Possibly still feeling the effects of a broken wrist that happened early in his career. The stop-start nature to Dach’s career has made it tough to properly evaluate him and the multiple knee surgeries aren’t going to help some of his issues with acceleration and getting away from defenders. He has shown flashes of brilliance with Montreal as recently as two years ago, but it’s hard to say if he can regain that form.

Alex Newhook

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	13	15	28	0.34

Taking fliers on former first round picks from other teams has provided the Habs with mixed results. The journey of Alex Newhook best exemplifies that. He shows flashes of being a special player and it’s usually when the table is set for him by his linemates. When he skates downhill from high in the offensive zone, he’s got one of the more dangerous shots on the Habs. The puck snaps right off his stick with a lot of elevation and accuracy. When his linemates drive the lane, he can make beautiful cross-seam passes and change the complexion of the game. Newhook can do enough to carry a third line but struggles when the game gets difficult and he has to make more plays under duress. He usually defers to his linemates at the first sign of pressure and doesn’t like to challenge the defence to risk a turnover. The safe style of play earns you some trust with the coaching staff, but it’s also frustrating to watch when you see glimpses of game-breaking skill from Newhook. He showed some signs of improving that last season, carrying the puck more and posting shot and scoring chance contribution rates that were around the league average. Becoming a threat on the power play has been the other challenge with him scoring only one goal with the man advantage all season despite consistent deployment on the second unit. Now 25, a skilled low-producing depth player might be all Newhook is, but he always shows just enough to make you want more.

Brendan Gallagher

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	18	15	33	0.44

A mainstay in the Habs lineup for over a decade, Gallagher has a more important role in the locker room than he does on the ice, but last year was a return to form. While injuries have plagued the back half of his career, he is coming off his first 20-goal season in five years while playing mostly on the lower lines and second power play unit. Gallagher still plays the same, gritty style he always has. A pest by nature, he’s always around the net and taking a few extra pokes at the loose puck after the whistle just to stir the pot. This is part of why he’s had so many injury problems, as he’s eaten a lot of cross-checks in front of the net over the years. This is despite him not being that old at 32 years old, but with more miles logged and harder minutes. He formed an effective line with Josh Anderson for most of the season, the duo playing a straight-head game and doing an excellent job of driving play. They don’t score as much as they should for how many chances they get from close range, but they’re done with more brute force than finesse. Gallagher’s season was somewhat of a saving grace for Montreal with their need for more productive depth players. With how straight-ahead his game is, staying healthy will be key for Gallagher sustaining this level of play.

Josh Anderson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	16	13	29	0.37

Josh Anderson is one of the few players you could describe as a runaway train and have it be considered a backhanded compliment. He is a huge forward who skates like a bullet and makes a beeline for the net regardless of if he has the puck. He’s noticeable with how quick and powerful he skates and how many shots he takes. You also notice how he never looks to pass to teammates, lets chances go to waste by shooting into the goalie’s crest and how often he turns the puck over while trying to bolt out of his own zone. If there is such a thing as a one-way player, Anderson fits the description because his positive traits are all related to shooting and speed. He was one of the Habs best forwards at scoring chances at even strength despite having the lowest shot assist rate on the team. It’s also made him regularly deployed on the penalty kill, where he’s only out there to create shorthanded rushes and keep other power plays honest. Some of his flaws were covered by playing on a line with Brendan Gallagher last season, as the duo were a positive line for the Habs thanks to Gallagher’s knack for generating second chances and creating sustained possessions, so all of Anderson’s rushes weren’t of the one-and-done variety. Montreal values Anderson’s size and speed, so he will continue to be a trusted member of their forward corps.

DEFENCE

Lane Hutson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	11	64	75	0.91

The early part of last season was all about letting Lane Hutson cook. They gave the young blue-liner free reign to do whatever he wanted with the puck, letting him control the cycle from the outside and dissect the coverage from up high. It took a couple months for the results to show, but he was one of the most productive blue-liners in the league during the second half. If there was anything it proved it was that Hutson is a quick study because he learned his teammates' tendencies well and got better at reading off them as the season went on. His footwork makes it difficult to challenge him high in the zone, frequently making defenders miss and if he got any room, he could easily get the puck to the net or find someone open within a second. Leaving him alone is also dangerous because he excels at getting shots through and shooting for deflections. His game in the defensive zone is ahead of his years, handling the bulk of the work on puck retrievals and using his stick to disrupt rush chances well. Hutson doesn’t trust his defensive game to the point where he can aggressively challenge forwards yet, so he makes up for it by playing deeper in the zone and letting the play come to him. We will see if he changes this part of his game now that teams can pick up on his tendencies. His play with the puck, however, is very tough to prepare for and the sky should be the limit as Montreal’s forwards continue to improve.

Noah Dobson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	12	42	54	0.68

After enjoying one season as one of the league’s highest scoring defencemen, Dobson didn’t get the same level of puck luck on assists this past season and saw his point total take a drastic fall. Not that scoring is the only thing Dobson brings to the table. He’s a rangy, mobile defenceman who can get you out of the zone quickly and log heavy minutes. The burden he carried on the Isles defence corps proved to be a little too much last season, as the team got heavily outscored with him on the ice at five-on-five. This made fans notice his flaws more than the things that made him special. The turnovers are pointed out more instead of the subtle plays with the puck. You see him missing the net with the booming slapshot more than you notice how smoothly he plays the fourth forward role with joining the rush. He is a high-risk/high-reward defenceman by nature, so it’s understandable that he can be a lighting rod when things aren’t going well. That pressure likely won’t be going away now that he is Montreal’s undisputed number one defenceman. On paper, he complements young Lane Hutson nicely. They can both skate and split the workload in the defensive zone on puck retrievals. The hope is that they don’t have to spend too much time in their own zone defending because the potential for them to be a high-octane offensive-D pair is really exciting to think about. Players like Dobson don’t come along very often, especially at only 25 years old, so this raises the bar very high for an ascending Habs squad.

Mike Matheson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	6	23	29	0.37

While Hutson was still getting used to the NHL, Matheson played the role of Montreal’s top defenceman by default. He has the physical tools and the endurance to play the minutes, but not the awareness to handle the workload. Spending so much of your shifts in the defensive zone takes its toll on your body after awhile and Matheson felt the effects of it in some games. He’s an explosive, puck-rushing defenceman by nature and was pigeonholed into more of a defensive role with Habs short on proven options. Montreal even tried pairing Hutson with Matheson for a brief spell before forming a shutdown pair with midseason acquisition Alex Carrier. The duo did a good job of keeping the puck out of their net but had to put out a lot of fires in their own zone. Which goes back to Matheson being asked to do too much as the team’s do-it-all defenceman last season. The weight is going to be taken off him next year with Noah Dobson in the fold and Hutson stepping up on the top-pair. It likely spells the end of him getting power play time in Montreal and his role possibly being shifted to more of a defensive specialist with heavy minutes on the penalty kill. Matheson’s skating and ability to be a one-man breakout is always going to keep him in the top four, it’s just a question of if he’ll perform better in a lesser role.

GOAL

Samuel Montembeault

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
58	29	20	7	4	.903	2.85

It could be easy to criticize what the Montreal Canadiens are doing in net at the moment. As they enter the final year of Carey Price's albatross contract, five full years after his last NHL appearance for the club, their options in net are a former mid-tier Florida Panthers prospect, a 24-year old who split last season between the big club and AHL's Laval, and former Minnesota Wild draft pick Kaapo Kahkonen - who served as a backup for the Wild, then the San Jose Sharks, before getting claimed off waivers twice last year and then getting traded. As much as Sam Montembeault, Jakub Dobes, and Kahkonen might seem like a motley crew of cast-off toys, though, they could be the first trio of roster figures Montreal has strung together in net in years that won't cause fans to hold their breath in nervous anticipation. Montembeault's numbers last year looked just barely better than league average, but he managed to maintain those over one of the league's heaviest workloads - and his more situational analytics have slowly been trending upward with each year that he's given more responsibility. Dobes did an admiral job stepping up as well, splitting the net with Montembeault in the postseason to give him both regular season and playoff NHL experience to take into next year. And Kahkonen, while on an admittedly wild ride the last handful of seasons, provides the perfect opportunity for Dobes to start the year getting plenty of reps in the AHL to warm up for the back half of the season; it's not the flashiest trio in the league, but it seems perfectly built to keep Montreal battling for playoff contention for yet another year.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – A look at the rookie race at mid-season – Favourable schedules and player to target

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 13 Jan 2025 15:20:08 +0000

I haven’t spent any time talking about the rookie race this campaign. Macklin Celebrini did miss 12 games early on due to a lower-body injury, which mitigated the early attention he might have otherwise had, but he’s been healthy for a while and has looked fantastic, providing 13 goals and 28 points through 32 appearances.

Montreal Canadiens defenseman Lane Hutson (48) (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

At this stage, though, the reason why I haven’t dipped into the Calder Trophy race is because there’s not a lot to chew on there. Celebrini does have direct competition with Matvei Michkov, but Michkov is just one point ahead of Celebrini despite having played in eight more outings, so barring a change in the second half of the campaign, Celebrini seems like the clear favorite between them. Beyond that, the main competitors are defenseman Lane Hutson, who has three goals and 31 points in 41 outings, and goaltender Dustin Wolf, who is 13-6-2 with a 2.60 GAA and a .914 save percentage in 21 starts.

Comparing Celebrini, Hutson and Wolf is mostly subjective because they bring completely different things, so while a judgment call can and will be made by the end of the season which of them -- or Michkov if he does surprise me -- should get the trophy, comparing them in an article setting feels like evaluating apples and oranges.

Still, we might be able to glean something by evaluating how each of them compares to previous rookies at this stage of their careers. For Celebrini, we’ll compare his start against other forwards, and Hutson will be evaluated against defensemen. I’ll simplify things a little by making the comparisons based on games played (in other words, Connor Bedard’s first 32 games played will be measured against the Sharks rookie) to factor out Celebrini’s injury.

In the case of Wolf, I’m not going to break it down because the odds of him winning the Calder Trophy seem slim. While I think he deserves to be in the conversation to become one of the finalists, the last goaltender to take the trophy was Steve Mason back in 2008-09, and he was unreal that campaign with a 33-20-7 record, 2.29 GAA and .916 save percentage along with 10 shutouts. To put that into the context of that campaign, Mason also finished second in Vezina Trophy voting and fourth in the Hart race. With all due respect to Wolf, he’s not doing anything that measures up to that -- at least, he hasn’t yet.

With that in mind, let’s look at Celebrini’s recent comparables:

Alex Ovechkin, 2005-06, 19-19-38

Connor McDavid, 2016-17, 13-21-34

Sidney Crosby, 2005-06, 13-19-32

Patrick Kane, 2007-08, 8-23-31

Connor Bedard, 2023-24, 12-17-29

Macklin Celebrini, 2024-25, 13-15-28

Auston Matthews, 2016-17, 16-9-25

Paul Stastny, 2006-07, 8-14-22

You can see that his pace is a step below that of Ovechkin, McDavid, Crosby and Kane (note that McDavid missed roughly half of his rookie season and consequently missed out on the Calder), but he’s doing about as well as Bedard did last year.

Matthews and Stastny are there to remind us that we need to take these numbers with a grain of salt. Matthews is an amazing goal scorer who began his career with a four-goal game, but he had an extended quiet period from Oct. 27-Nov. 22 (0-3-3 in 13 games) during his rookie campaign, which diminished his early returns. In the case of Stastny, he finished with 28 goals and 78 points in 82 appearances in his first campaign, but he got off to a slow start.

These are ultimately still small sample sizes, but it does at least show that Celebrini is off to a respectable start when measured against the biggest stars of the salary cap era.

Still, Hutson looks even better:

Cale Makar*, 2019-20, 11-26-37

Shayne Gostisbehere*, 2015-16, 12-22-34

Lane Hutson*, 2024-25, 3-28-31

Quinn Hughes*, 2019-20, 4-26-30

Moritz Seider, 2021-22, 3-23-26

Zach Werenski, 2016-17, 6-20-26

Luke Hughes*, 2023-24, 7-16-23

Tyler Myers, 2009-10, 3-19-22

Brock Faber*, 2023-24, 2-18-20

You’ll notice a number of defensemen on this list with asterisks, which indicates that I took the first 41 games of their Calder season, not their first 41 games overall. For example, I didn’t count Makar’s 10 playoff appearances before 2019-20 or Quinn Hughes’ five regular-season outings in 2018-19. Hutson’s two appearances in 2023-24 weren’t factored in either, not that it would have hurt him -- he finished last season with a pair of assists.

That aside, Hutson is off to a remarkable start compared to other defensemen of the salary cap era. Faber did well enough to finish second in Calder Trophy voting last campaign with 47 points, and Hutson is well ahead of him. Moritz Seider is the last blueliner to win the award, and Hutson is outpacing the Red Wings defenseman as well.

Hutson is behind Makar and Gostisbehere, but Makar logged just 57 games as a rookie, consequently finishing with 50 points, and Gostisbehere didn’t play a full campaign either, finishing with 46 points in 66 outings. Hutson is currently on a 62-point pace. That would surpass Nicklas Lidstrom’s 60 points in 1991-92 and be the most since Brian Leetch’s 71 points in 1988-89.

Again, it’s apples and oranges between Celebrini and Hutson, but if you’re just talking about who is on track to leave the bigger mark on history for a rookie in their position, then so far that’s clearly Hutson.

Columbus Blue Jackets (Tue vs PHI, Thu vs SJS, Sat @ NYR)

At this point, it seems very likely Buffalo’s playoff drought, which dates back to 2011, will continue, but another franchise’s bid to re-enter the postseason might be successful. The Blue Jackets are in the mix for a Wild Card spot with some favorable games ahead of them. They’ll play in home against Philadelphia and San Jose on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before visiting the Rangers on Saturday. At the time of writing, none of those three adversaries have a winning record.

The Blue Jackets are no strangers to injuries this campaign, but they are facing arguably their biggest challenge on that front with Sean Monahan on the injured reserve list due to a wrist issue. It’s not clear how long he’ll be out for, but he was placed on IR rather quickly after sustaining the injury Tuesday, which probably isn’t a great sign.

Before the injury, Monahan had 14 goals and 41 points through 41 appearances in 2024-25 while playing primarily on the Blue Jackets’ top line and first power-play unit. His loss will be felt, but if there is any silver lining at all, it’s that Columbus had a promising young forward waiting in the minors for his opportunity.

Luca Del Bel Belluz has excelled with AHL Cleveland in 2024-25, providing 17 goals and 37 points in 34 outings. The 21-year-old was summoned due to Monahan’s absence and was a standout performer in Thursday’s 6-2 victory over Seattle, collecting a goal and an assist in 11:16 of ice time. It’s reasonable to believe that his playing time will increase as he settles in, and he seems like a nice short-term grab to me -- short term because he might return to the minors once Monahan recovers.

Adam Fantilli is likely to be another player leaned on during Monahan’s absence. He logged 18:41, including 1:42 with the man advantage, Thursday and registered an assist to extend his scoring streak to four games. The 20-year-old’s nine goals and 20 points in 42 appearances in 2024-25 is nothing to write home about, but the 2023 No. 3 overall pick has tremendous upside that makes him worth keeping a very close eye on.

Dallas Stars (Tue @ TOR, Thu vs MTL, Sat @ COL, Sun vs DET)

Dallas has won its past six games, pushing its record to 26-13-1 in 2024-25. Although the Stars are having an incredible season, they’re still not in position to have the home-ice advantage in the first round because of the tough division they play in. Consequently, the Stars need every point they can get. They’ll try to stay strong in Toronto on Tuesday before hosting Montreal on Thursday. Dallas then has a back-to-back set over the weekend, playing in Colorado on Saturday and at home against Detroit on Sunday.

Jason Robertson’s resurgence has been a major part of the Stars’ winning streak. He was playing well below his potential early in the campaign, recording four goals and eight points across his opening 17 outings. Since then, he hasn’t been held off the scoresheet in consecutive games and has been especially effective recently, supplying three goals and 11 points over his past six outings. To put that into perspective, he leads all players in scoring from Dec. 29-Jan. 9 -- Zach Werenski and Mitch Marner are tied for second with nine points each.

Matt Duchene has also been on a roll. Although he’s having a strong campaign overall, Duchene had a slow stretch from Dec. 4-27 in which he was limited to a goal and an assist over 10 contests. He’s since rebounded with three goals and eight points across his past six outings.

The best part for Dallas is Duchene and Robertson typically play on separate lines, so this isn’t a case of one player’s hot streak simply feeding into the other’s, they’re both gelling at the same time independent of each other, which helps spread out the offense. That said, Duchene’s linemates Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn are looking good as well with eight and seven points, respectively, across Dallas’ past six games. Robertson’s linemates Evgenii Dadonov and Roope Hintz are also enjoying strong stretches with six and five points, respectively, over the same span.

The only downside is Logan Stankoven, who serves on the third line, hasn’t been doing much. He has the most offensive potential among the forwards outside of the top six, but the 21-year-old has been a mixed bag this campaign with four goals and 19 points in 38 outings, and that’s despite an amazing start of the season in which he had four goals and 14 points over his opening 15 games. He’s worth monitoring to see if he gets hot again, but he’s too streaky to be an everyday option in fantasy.

Florida Panthers (Mon @ PHI, Tue @NJD, Thu vs DET, Sat vs ANA)

The Panthers have a real shot of reaching the 100-point mark for the third time in four seasons -- and they played at a 100-point pace in the shortened 2021 campaign (37-14-5) -- but they’ve been going through something of a rough patch with a 3-4-0 record from Dec. 23-Jan. 8. Florida will attempt to correct course on the road against the Flyers on Monday and the Devils on Tuesday. The Panthers will then return home to host Detroit on Thursday and Anaheim on Saturday.

Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart typically drive Florida’s offense, but none of them have been especially noteworthy lately -- each of them has no more than one goal and three points across Florida’s past five outings. Instead, Jesper Boqvist has been the unlikely leader recently, collecting four goals and six points over that five-game span.

This won’t last -- the 26-year-old has never recorded more than 23 points in a single campaign -- but you can enjoy this while it lasts. If nothing else, the timing of it has taken a touch of pressure off the Panthers’ major forwards during one of their quieter stretches.

One forward who might be feeling the pressure regardless, though, is Sam Bennett. He was amazing at the start of the campaign, supplying 13 goals and 26 points across his opening 27 appearances, which made it look like he might earn a big payday in the final season of his four-year, $17.7 million contract. Some decline was likely inevitable, but rather than slow, he’s collapsed, recording just one assist over his past 13 outings.

If there is a silver lining, Bennett is still firing the puck at a decent rate, accounting for 25 shots in his past eight outings, and his role with the team alongside Tkachuk and Verhaeghe seems largely intact. It seems just a matter of time before he breaks out of his recent slump, but he probably won’t have another stretch like he did in the early portion of 2024-25.

Montreal Canadiens (Tue @ UTA, Thu @ DAL, Sat vs TOR, Sun vs NYR)

Montreal wasn’t terribly impressive early in the campaign, owning an 11-16-3 record through Dec. 14, but the Canadiens have gone on a 9-2-0 run since. That’s put them into the mix for a playoff spot going into next week’s action. Montreal will begin on the road with games in Utah on TuesdayJack Hughes, and Dallas on Thursday. The Canadiens will then host the Maple Leafs on Saturday and the Rangers on Sunday.

A key factor in Montreal’s recent success has been its offense. The Canadiens have averaged 3.82 goals per game across their past 11 contests, which is a huge spike from their 2.70 goals per game over their first 30 outings.

Interestingly, there’s very little overlap with Patrik Laine’s success after returning from a knee injury and Montreal’s run. He did have an incredible eight goals and nine points in nine outings, but that was from Dec. 3-21, so mostly before Montreal took off. He then had no goals and an assist in four appearances from Dec. 23-31 and has missed the Canadiens’ last four outings due to an illness. You could absolutely make an argument that his hot return helped get the ball rolling, but he’s not what’s sustained it.

Cole Caufield has been an offensive leader over that stretch with six goals and 13 points through 11 outings, but that’s nothing new for him -- he has 23 goals and 40 points in 41 games overall -- so while he’s an important part of the Canadiens’ offense, he’s not what changed. The same goes for Nick Suzuki, who has two goals and 12 points across his past 11 appearances, giving him 13 goals and 42 points in 2024-25.

If you want the secret sauce, it’s been depth players stepping up. Joel Armia, Juraj Slafkovsky, Emil Heineman and Jake Evans have each had 15 points or fewer over Montreal’s first 30 outings, but those four have each collected seven or more points over the past 11 games.

Meanwhile, we’ve seen some promise from Jakub Dobes. He’s made three starts so far and is 3-0-0 with a GAA and a save percentage of 0.97 and .959, respectively. Granted, that’s a small sample size, but those matches were against Florida, Colorado and Washington -- all on the road -- so the Canadiens have given him tough competition, and he’s risen to the occasion.

Sam Montembeault has been largely hit-and-miss this campaign, including from Dec. 17 onward. He does have a 6-2-0 record over that stretch, but he also has a 2.78 GAA and an .890 save percentage. With that in mind, there’s a chance Dobes could see his workload begin to increase.

New Jersey Devils (Tue vs FLA, Thu @ TOR, Sat vs PHI, Sun vs OTT)

The Devils recent mediocre play has been due to a cold spell offensively. New Jersey has been strong overall, ranking 11th in goals per game with 3.16 goals per game, but the Devils have averaged just 2 goals per game across their past seven outings.

Forwards Jack Hughes (two goals, six points), Jesper Bratt (one goal, five points) and Ondrej Palat (three goals, four points), as well as defenseman Dougie Hamilton (five assists), are the only players who have made notable contributions on offense during that seven-game stretch. Timo Meier (one goal, two points) and especially Nico Hischier (one goal, two points) stand out as having been unusually cold in that span.

It's just a matter of time before the Devils start scoring again, though, so I wouldn’t be overly worried. It’s also worth remembering that six of New Jersey’s past seven outings have been on the road, so perhaps that worked against the Devils.

For his part, Markstrom hasn’t been amazing recently, but he also hasn’t been the issue. He’s limited the competition to two or three goals in each of his past five starts, which would be good enough under normal circumstances. He’s also still putting up strong numbers overall with a 21-8-3 record, 2.19 GAA and .911 save percentage across his past 32 appearances.

So, if you have New Jersey players on your team, my recommendation would be to hold firm and anticipate better times ahead.

Ottawa Senators (Tue @ NYI, Thu vs WAS, Sat vs BOS, Sun @ NJD)

Ottawa is going through a four-game schedule in the week of Jan. 6-12, and it has another full slate ahead. The Senators will begin next week with a road matchup against the Islanders before hosting Washington and Boston on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. The Senators will then conclude the week in New Jersey on Sunday. With those final two games, the Senators will have played in five back-to-back sets, totaling 10 matches, in the span of 12 contests.

Ottawa has suffered four straight defeats to start January and is 1-5-1 across its past seven outings. With Montreal and Detroit both trending in the right direction, the Senators are in danger of slipping to seventh in the Atlantic Division and seeing their playoff chances fade further.

Brady Tkachuk, who is 25 and in his seventh NHL campaign without making his postseason debut, is doing his best to keep the Senators afloat, recording two goals, five points, 21 PIM and 20 hits over that seven-game span. He’s been Ottawa’s top offensive power during that stretch, but the other forwards the Senators typically rely on for offense -- Claude Giroux, Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson -- have each recorded two or fewer points over that stretch.

Though, perhaps it’s inaccurate to say that the Senators are relying on Giroux for offense, or at least they shouldn’t be at this point. Giroux was still a strong top-line scoring threat when he joined the Senators in 2022, but he seems to have declined substantially at the age of 36, supplying nine goals and 24 points through 40 appearances this campaign. Clearly, he still has something to offer, but those are numbers that would be more in line with a third line forward on a strong team.

Perhaps there’s a strong team out there that would want him in such a role. Giroux is in the final campaign of his three-year, $19.5 million contract, and if the Senators don’t rebuild soon, it would make sense for them to shop the veteran forward. He does have a no-movement clause, so Giroux has complete control over that situation, but his career is winding down, and he hasn’t won the Cup yet, so if presented with the opportunity to play for a serious contender, he’d likely take it.

He'd easily be the Senators’ biggest trade chip if it came to that. Travis Hamonic would also likely have appeal as a third-pairing blueliner, while Nick Cousins and Adam Gaudette might be grabbed to provide playoff-bound teams with forward depth, but if you’re a Senators fan and the team doesn’t turn things around soon, then Giroux rumors are the ones you’ll want to pay attention to.

Philadelphia Flyers (Mon vs FLA, Tue @ CBJ, Thu @ NYI, Sat @ NJD)

The Flyers endured a tough road stretch from Dec. 23-Jan. 5 in which they went 2-3-1. They’re back at home now, but rather than reverse the trend, they’ve dropped their past two games. Their home stint will conclude Monday against the Panthers. After that, they’ll go on a three-game trip involving games against the Blue Jackets on Tuesday, the Islanders on Thursday and the Devils on Saturday. Philadelphia will look to do better in that stretch while attempting to make up ground in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.

Like Ottawa, Philadelphia’s recent struggles has caused its playoff hopes to drastically diminish, but with half the season left, a comeback can’t be ruled out. It’s unfair to put this on the rookie, but a stronger showing out of Matvei Michkov would go a long way toward making that happen.

I noted Michkov’s overall success this season up top, but what I didn’t mention is how cold he’s been recently, recording a goal, an assist and a minus-17 rating across his past 13 appearances. Plus/minus is always a stat that needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but his minus-17 rating from Dec. 14-Jan. 9 is by far the worst in the NHL. The next worst in the NHL during that time period are Brandon Montour and Mikhail Sergachev, who are tied at minus-12. Jamie Drysdale is the next worst member of the Flyers at minus-11 while the next worst Flyers forward is Morgan Frost at minus-9.

Michkov was a healthy scratch for two games from Nov. 7-9 and followed that with an amazing stretch from Nov. 11-Dec. 10 in which he had seven goals, 17 points and a plus-13 rating across 14 outings. I do wonder if maybe another scratch is in Michkov’s future to give him a chance to regroup. Either way, he’s a talented rookie, and it’s not uncommon for rookies to grow through stretches like this -- for one of countless examples, you might recall the Auston Matthews rookie slump I highlighted earlier -- so there’s not much cause for concern about Michkov’s future. In the long run, he should grow from this.

In contrast to his cold spell, Tyson Foerster had an incredible run of six goals and nine points in nine outings from Dec. 18-Jan. 5, but he was held off the scoresheet in Philadelphia’s past two games, so the good times might be over. He’s more of a streaming option given his streaky nature and middle-of-the-road stats (12 goals and 19 points in 41 games). For that reason, it’s best to move on when he shows signs of cooling.

If you’re looking for a hot member of the team, that’s Travis Konecny. He’s having an amazing campaign overall too with 20 goals and 46 points in 42 outings, but he’s been especially productive on the goal front recently with four markers across his last five appearances. His shooting percentage of 19.0 is well above his career average of 13.0, which is a potential warning sign, but that’s been skewed upwards by his power-play goals (a career-high eight). His 5-on-5 shooting percentage of 9.8 is actually a bit low for him (he finished with a 5-on-5 shooting percentage in the double digits in five of his previous seven campaigns), so there might still be some upside in that regard.

Utah HC (Tue vs MTL, Thu vs NYR, Sat vs STL)

Utah is having a streaky season, and lately, the squad has been trending in the wrong direction, going 2-6-2 from Dec. 22-Jan. 10. Fortunately, next week, the team will be at home against adversaries that presently don’t occupy a playoff position. Utah HC will face the Canadiens on Tuesday, the Rangers on Thursday and the Blues on Saturday.

Utah got Connor Ingram back from an upper-body injury, but at the time of writing, he hasn’t drawn into a game since returning, and it’s likely he’ll be used sparing. He didn’t impress before the injury, posting a 6-4-3 record, 3.61 GAA and .871 save percentage in 13 outings. Perhaps the time off has given him a chance to reset, but given Karel Vejmelka’s success -- although he has a 10-11-3 record, he’s stellar in terms of GAA (2.38) and save percentage (.916) -- so there isn’t much motivation to use Ingram except when Vejmelka could use a breather. Then again, the winds with this duo have changed before, so nothing is certain. Vejmelka was the starter in 2022-23, but that role was taken by Ingram last season. Ingram also entered 2024-25 with the No. 1 gig that now belongs to Vejmelka.

Neither has a track record of success long enough to be called a safe bet. The closest thing to that in Utah is Clayton Keller. The 26-year-old forward has been remarkably consistent this campaign, being held off the scoresheet in consecutive games just once in 2024-25 (Oct. 22-24). That steady stream of offense has resulted in him recording 14 goals and 41 points through 40 appearances, putting him well on his way toward reaching the 75-point mark for the third straight campaign.

It's just a shame that the forward corps around him is nothing special. Logan Cooley (11 goals, 35 points), Dylan Guenther (16 goals, 34 points) and Nick Schmaltz (seven goals, 30 points) have all been fine, but no other member of the squad has even reached the 20-point mark. In the long run, Utah does have Tij Iginla, Cole Beaudoin and Daniil But, who could make a significant impact in a couple of years, but none of those young forwards are in a position to help now.

Josh Doan is much closer, but after the 22-year-old turned heads by providing five goals and nine points in 11 games with Arizona in 2023-24, he was quiet during an NHL stint from Oct. 8-26 this campaign, supplying a goal and an assist across nine outings before being sent to AHL Tucson. He did seem to find his way in Tucson, though, contributing eight goals and 21 points over 25 contests, and was recalled Friday as a result. He had three shots in 14:18 of ice time during Utah’s 2-1 win over San Jose.

As already noted, Utah isn’t swimming in offensive depth, so with Keller, Cooley and Schmaltz sharing a line and Dylan Guenther (lower body) out indefinitely, Doan doesn’t have great linemates to play off. He’s at least worth keeping an eye on, but I wouldn’t jump to take him yet.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Vilardi heating up, Kakko on the move, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 21 Dec 2024 00:53:01 +0000

_{LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 13: Winnipeg Jets center Gabriel Vilardi (13) celebrates his goal during an NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on December 13, 2023 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)}

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Gabriel Vilardi is hot, Pavel Buchnevich is thriving on the wing, Kirill Marchenko leads the surprising Blue Jackets, a fresh start for Kaapo Kakko, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Winnipeg Jets right-winger Gabriel Vilardi is heating up. The 25-year-old forward has tallied 11 points (5 G, 6 A) with 16 shots on goal while averaging 19:26 of ice time per game in his past eight games. He is in a great spot, skating on the Jets’ top line with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, as well as playing on the top power-play unit. Injuries have been a significant factor in Vilardi’s career, and he has never played more than 63 games in a season, so it is surprising that he has played in all 34 games for the Jets thus far. Vilardi has 28 points already, so if he remains healthy, he should surpass his career high of 41 points set in 2022-2023.

#2 The St. Louis Blues tried to shift Pavel Buchnevich to centre at the start of the season, confident that his all-around game would fit in that role, and it did not bring out the best in the veteran forward. He has been returned to the wing and in 10 games since Jim Montgomery took over behind the Blues bench, Buchnevich has contributed nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 27 shots on goal and has most recently found himself skating on a line with Jake Neighbours and Robert Thomas.

#3 The leading scorer for the Columbus Blue Jackets this season, with 33 points (11 G, 22 A) in 33 games, is third-year right winger Kirill Marchenko. In his past 15 games, he has 17 points (5 G, 12 A) and 46 shots on goal. He plays 18 minutes per game, consistently generates shots and has a good thing going on Columbus’ top line with Dmitri Voronkov and Sean Monahan.

#4 With just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 30 games for the New York Rangers, right winger Kaapo Kakko was traded to the Seattle Kraken, an opportunity for a fresh start for the second pick in the 2019 Draft. Kakko, 23, had career highs of 18 goals and 40 points during the 2022-2023 season but has not been able to generate enough offense to meet expectations. While Kakko’s puck possession numbers aren’t great this season, it has typically been a strength of his, so he should be able to hold a regular spot in the Kraken lineup. In his first game for Seattle, Kakko skated on a line with Jared McCann and Matty Beniers, which would be a decent spot for him to find his offensive game.

#5 With the Edmonton Oilers scoring at a high rate, ranking second in the league over the past month, there are secondary sources of offense available on this squad. One worth considering is defenceman Darnell Nurse, who has five assists and 14 shots on goal in his past six games. Nurse has 15 points (3 G, 12 A) in 29 games, with just one point on the power play, but he has been this productive despite an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.1 percent during five-on-five play. That mark should go up, so it would be a reasonable expectation for Nurse to score at least a half-point per game for the rest of the season. For a player who delivers hits and blocked shots as well, Nurse has value in most fantasy formats.

#6 Colorado Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen has thrived with the Avs, where his hard-working industrious style of play complements Colorado’s highly skilled top players. In his past 11 games, Lehkonen has nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 25 shots on goal while averaging more than 22 minutes of ice time per game. He skates on Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, which is obviously a prime position for Lehkonen to continue delivering offensive production.

#7 After a slow start to the season, veteran Utah Hockey Club right winger Nick Schmaltz has started to break out of his slump, scoring at a more typical rate. Through his first 19 games of the season, Schmaltz had zero goals and 13 assists with 38 shots on goal. In a dozen games since then, he has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) with 30 shots on goal. As a key player on Utah’s top line and first power play unit, Schmaltz tends to be a reliable scoring threat and appears to be back on track.

#8 As the Buffalo Sabres are watching their season go down the drain, defenceman Owen Power has quietly been very productive. While Power has 20 points (4 G, 16 A) in 32 games, it’s notable that all 20 points have come at even strength, which puts him third in even-strength scoring among defencemen, behind only Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. Power’s offensive ceiling would seem to be limited in Buffalo, where Rasmus Dahlin (currently injured) and Bowen Byram have power play priority, but the towering defender is already productive at 22 years old.

#9 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry has become a consistently productive scorer in recent seasons, even if it sometimes gets overlooked because of where he plays. In his past 11 games, Terry has put up 13 points (3 G, 10 A) with 37 shots on goal while averaging 19:53 of ice time per game. On a Ducks team trying to build around young players, Terry is skating on a line with Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome on Anaheim’s No. 1 line.

#10 The Anaheim Ducks shuffled the deck on their blueline, dealing veteran defenceman Cam Fowler to the St. Louis Blues and part of the reason for the change was to give younger defencemen the opportunity to step into bigger roles. Second-year blueliner Jackson LaCombe is making the most of his chances and, in December, has suddenly produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal in seven games. He is playing nearly 20 minutes per game in that time and is getting first-unit power play time, which makes him a legitimate option for fantasy managers.

#11 Nashville Predators defenceman Roman Josi has been battling a lower-body injury and has landed on the injured list. With Josi out, Brady Skjei takes over as the quarterback on the Nashville power play. Skjei has failed to record a point in each of his past nine games, despite playing nearly 23 minutes per game, leaving him with nine points (2 G, 7 A) in 32 games. That is a long way off the pace that Skjei set in Carolina over the previous three seasons when he produced 124 points (40 G, 84 A) in 243 games for the Hurricanes.

#12 Another former Hurricane, winger Teuvo Teravainen started slowly upon his return to Chicago, managing eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his first 18 games, with half of those goals and points coming in the third game of the season. Since then, Teravainen has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 15 games and he is skating on Chicago’s third line, alongside Jason Dickinson and Ilya Mikheyev.

#13 It would be too soon to recommend Oilers right winger Connor Brown in anything but the deepest of leagues, but he is worth keeping an eye on because the Oilers are not getting consistent production from their wingers and Brown did contribute more offensively before joining the Oilers last season. Brown managed just a dozen points (4 G, 8 A) in 71 games for Edmonton last season, but is up to 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 32 games this season after producing eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past 11 games.

#14 Red Winger centre J.T. Compher has contributed a point per game (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games, a sudden increase in his offensive output. While his ice time is down by 2:33 per game compared to last season, Compher is still getting first-unit power play time in addition to his time at centre on Detroit’s third line. As a player who had 48 and 52 points, respectively, in the previous two seasons, Compher is behind his previous scoring pace, but if he remains productive, his ice time will likely climb.

#15 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a consistent contributor but has elevated his level of play in the past month. In 14 games, he has 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 30 shots on goal. Bjorkstrand gets first unit power play time for the Kraken, but only five of his 23 points this season have come with the man advantage. The recent uptick in his production has come at even strength, where he has more recently been playing with Shane Wright and Eeli Tolvanen. Bjorkstrand tallied a career-high 59 points (20 G, 39 A) last season, with 25 points on the power play, so that would seem to be an area that still has room for further improvement.

#16 Vegas Golden Knights winger Ivan Barbashev has been sidelined with an upper-body injury and it’s worth pointing out what a big hole that leaves in the lineup. Barbarshev has 26 points during five-on-five play and Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov is the only player in the league with more points during five-on-five play. Certainly, playing with Jack Eichel is a big part of Barbashev’s success, and Pavel Dorofeyev has joined Eichel and Stone on Vegas’ top line with Barbashev out of the lineup. Dorofeyev played 19:31 in Thursday’s win against Vancouver, the second-highest ice time of his career.

#17 As the Pittsburgh Penguins may be turning around a season that looked hopelessly lost, defenceman Matt Grzelcyk has turned into a solid contributor, putting up nine points (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games. Eight of Grzelcyk’s 17 points this season have come on the power play and the Penguins are running a rare power play with two defencemen on the top unit and it’s been Grzelcyk and Kris Letang in those roles, with Erik Karlsson on PP2.

#18 There are ups and downs along the path for Montreal Canadiens goaltender Samuel Montembeault, who has had nine games this season in which he has allowed at least four goals, but he has a .914 save percentage to go along with a 4-3 record in seven starts this month. He has 7.73 Goals Saved Above Expected this season, which ranks eighth in the league, ahead of Igor Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, and Jacob Markstrom. Wins might not come so easily for the Canadiens goaltender, but his performance thus far makes him a legitimate fantasy option and it backs up Team Canada’s choice to include him on the roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off.

#19 Sticking with all situations Goals Saved Above Expected but looking at the low end of the spectrum, the goaltenders with the fewest Goals Saved Above Expected this season: Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (-14.53), San Jose’s Alexandar Georgiev (-13.56), Columbus’ Daniil Tarasov (-11.39), Utah’s Connor Ingram (-9.61), and Carolina’s Spencer Martin (-9.56). From that group, Swayman obviously stands out, given the strong track record that he had prior to this season, but Ingram had an excellent season in 2023-2024, so his decline before getting hurt is notable, too. The goaltenders at the top of the list might be surprising, too, at least after Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (+22.84). The rest of the top five are: Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal (+17.51), Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz (+13.46), Seattle’s Joey Daccord (+11.39), and Utah’s Karel Vejmelka (+10.94).

#20 There are some popular players with fantasy managers who are running ice cold lately, including New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton, Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson, the Rangers’ Chris Kreider, and Buffalo’s Alex Tuch, among others. Hamilton has gone seven games without a point and his ice time has dropped below 18 minutes in three of his past four games. In his past five games, Pettersson has zero points and eight shots on goal, while averaging 16:50 of ice time per game. Kreider recorded his first (and only) assist of the season on December 6th and has since gone six straight games without a point, though he does have 17 shots on goal in that span. Tuch has one point (1 G, 0 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past six games and played a season-low 14:34 against Montreal on Tuesday.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – MONTREAL CANADIENS – Team Preview

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 16:00:58 +0000

_{MONTREAL, QC - NOVEMBER 30: Juraj Slafkovsky (20) of the Montreal Canadiens skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Florida Panthers and the Montreal Canadiens on November 30 2023, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC(Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)}

2023-24 was another rebuilding year for the Canadiens, but they did make progress, posting a 30-36-16 record -- their best showing in terms of PTS% since their surprising trip to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2021. Perhaps more importantly, the core for Montreal’s next window is starting to take shape. Cole Caufield (28 goals, 65 points) and Juraj Slafkovsky (20 goals, 50 points) both made significant strides last season to establish themselves along with Nick Suzuki (33 goals, 77 points) as the main pillars of the young forward group. Meanwhile, Kaiden Guhle is fast becoming a legitimate top four defenceman while Cayden Primeau and Sam Montembeault are starting to look like a capable goaltending duo. It’s a good foundation for the Canadiens to build on top of.

WHAT’S CHANGED? Speaking of that foundation, Montreal helped cement it over the summer by signing Slafkovsky to an eight-year, $60.8 million contract that will begin with the 2025-26 campaign. The Canadiens also handed Guhle a six-year, $33.3 million extension that also starts in 2025-26. Montreal had already previously locked up Suzuki and Caufield to $7.875 million and $7.85 million annual cap hits, respectively, so the team’s done an excellent job of locking up talent to team-friendly deals. In terms of big additions on the trade or unrestricted free agent markets, though, Montreal had a quiet offseason.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? It will be tough for Montreal to squeak into the playoffs in 2024-25 as a member of the hyper-competitive Atlantic Division, but not impossible. Slafkovsky might take another step forward this season, a healthy Dach (he was limited to two games in 2023-24) would provide the squad with some badly needed secondary scoring. If those offensive gains are married with further growth from Primeau, then Montreal might look pretty good this season.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? However, Montreal’s depth isn’t really there yet. Sure, the addition of Patrik Laine at the deadline will help if he can stay healthy and find his 30-40 goal form. Slafkovsky, Caufield and Suzuki also give them three great scoring options, and defenceman Michael Matheson is coming off a fantastic 62-point campaign, but who else on the Canadiens is a good bet to record even 40 points? Dach? If he’s healthy, probably, but unfortunately injuries have been a recurring problem for him beyond just the 2023-24 campaign. Newhook? The potential is certainly there and might be their best bet, though the 23-year-old hasn’t done it yet, so he’s no sure thing. Keep in mind that the average team last year had 6.2 players provide at least 40 points, so even if Laine, Dach and Newhook all work out, and Montreal’s top forwards all stay healthy, that might only elevate Montreal’s offence to average. In a division as tough as the Atlantic, that might not cut it.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Perhaps defenceman Lane Hutson should be included in the conversation for Canadiens players who might hit 40 points in 2024-25. He’s coming off a fantastic campaign in which he had 15 goals and 49 points in 38 contests with Boston University before concluding things with two assists in two outings for the Canadiens. The offensive upside is absolutely there for the 20-year-old, though expectations should be tempered for his rookie campaign, in part because he’s unlikely to have a role on Montreal’s top power-play unit.

FORWARD

Nick Suzuki

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	32	48	80	0.98

Back in Oct. 2021 when Suzuki had 28 goals and 82 points across 127 NHL games on his resume, Montreal decided to bet on his continued development by locking him up to an eight-year, $63 million contract that didn’t start until the 2022-23 campaign. If Suzuki had struggled to take that next step, then that contract would have looked like an overpay, but as it is, his $7.875 million cap hit is quickly becoming a steal. Suzuki set career highs last season with 33 goals and 77 points in 82 appearances. Although he finished with a minus-14 rating as a byproduct of playing for a rebuilding team, his relative 5v5 CF%/FF% were plus-5.5/5.6, which suggests Montreal performed far better when he was on the ice than off it. Perhaps that’s why he finished 13th in Selke Trophy voting for 2023-24 despite that poor plus/minus rating. It also helps that he’s made strides on the draw, winning 689 of his faceoffs for a 52.6 percent success rate. That marks the first time he’s won more faceoffs than he’s lost. The 25-year-old isn’t much of a physical presence, but that’s a mild criticism to lay on Suzuki in the face of what he brings to the table. The Ontario native figures to be an excellent top-line center for the Canadiens for many years to come.

Cole Caufield

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	36	32	68	0.83

Caufield has taken a bit to fully come into his own. He was wildly inconsistent in 2021-22, though part of that can be written off as him not gelling with former coach Dominique Ducharme, and he missed nearly half of the 2022-23 campaign. By contrast, Caufield was relatively steady last season and played the full 82 games, resulting in him setting career highs with 28 goals and 65 points. He also finished with a minus-4 rating, which isn’t bad as a member of a rebuilding squad, and his relative 5v5 CF%/FF% of plus-4.2/4.0 backs up the idea that Montreal was in a far better all-around position when he was on the ice. That’s despite the 5-foot-8 winger bringing very little to the table in terms of physicality. One interesting aspect of his game in 2023-24 was him firing 314 shots -- the seventh most in the league -- but having that counterbalanced by a career-worst 8.9 shooting percentage. Caufield’s bread-and-butter in terms of goals was shots right in front of the net. Outside of that, he found very little success with his shots, which is in stark contrast to 2022-23 when he had a 16.0 percent success rate on what the NHL defines as mid-range shots compared to the league average of 9.0. So it might be that luck simply wasn’t on Caufield’s side last season, which lends credence to the idea that he could reach even greater heights in 2024-25.

Patrik Laine

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
68	32	31	63	0.93

Laine will get a fresh start after being acquired by Montreal from Columbus, but what will he do with that opportunity? Unfortunately for Laine, what happens next might be outside of his control. The 26-year-old is coming off an especially difficult campaign in which he was limited to 18 games due to a combination of injuries and time in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. However, he also saw a decline in ice time and even served as a healthy scratch, underlining how rough his situation became in Columbus. Whatever else he is, Laine is still an amazing goal scorer, and getting him gives Montreal options. The Canadiens could go with their super line of Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, leaving Laine to headline the second line, or they could seek to spread out those four high-end offensive threats over two units. However, that’ll only be possible when Laine is healthy, bringing us to the part that’s out of his control. Although 2023-24 was particularly rough, Laine has a significant injury history, so it’s valid to wonder how much he’ll play. In a best-case scenario, though, would see a return to his 2017-18 form of 44 goals and 70 points.

Brendan Gallagher

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	14	16	30	0.39

Montreal has some great young forwards locked up to team-friendly contracts, but that’s counterbalanced by Gallagher. He still has three campaigns left on his six-year, $39 million contract, and there’s an argument to be made that he’s one of the biggest overpays in the league. Gallagher exceeded the 30-goal milestone in back-to-back campaigns in 2017-18 and 2018-19, but he hasn’t gotten more than 22 goals since, and he hasn’t even reached the 40-point mark past 2019-20. Most recently, Gallagher provided 16 goals, 31 points, a minus-24 rating and 4 PIM in 77 outings in 2023-24. Now 32 years old, the Canadiens have resigned to using him sparingly, as demonstrated by his average of 13:47 of ice time last season. At least he can do alright when Montreal picks his spots. Although he doesn’t have a size advantage at 5-foot-9, he’ll still play with an edge, and his relative CF%/FF% was a respectable plus-5.8/5.7 last season, which suggests he was an asset when on the ice despite what his horrid plus/minus might tell you. So, if you strictly look at him in the context of being a middle-six role player, then Gallagher is a perfectly serviceable option. It’s just that $6.5 million cap hit of his that sticks out like a sore thumb and given that he’s unlikely to recapture his former scoring glory, his contract will continue to be problematic.

Josh Anderson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	11	15	26	0.35

Anderson provides grit, but not a whole lot else. Sure, he did score 27 goals and 47 points across 82 contests as a member of the Blue Jackets back in 2018-19, but that season appears to have been an anomaly from an offensive standpoint. Now with Montreal, Anderson collected nine goals, 20 points, 74 PIM and 169 hits in 2023-24. Even ignoring the 2018-19 campaign, he is capable of doing more offensively than he demonstrated last year -- he finished each of 2021-22 and 2022-23 with 32 points -- so an uptick in scoring this season wouldn’t be surprising. Even if that happens, though, Montreal will be primarily paying him to utilize his size. He’ll do that primarily as a middle-six forward, but he also saw some time on a line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield last season, and there’s certainly some merit to having the big guy out there to create space for Montreal’s skilled forward, so we should see that arrangement from time-to-time again this year. The main x-factor here is Anderson’s health. The Ontario native managed to avoid any major injuries last year, but that hasn’t always been the case -- he's reached the 70-game mark just three times in his career -- so Montreal might be put in a position where they’ll have to make do without Anderson for a significant chunk of 2024-25.

Joel Armia

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
73	16	14	30	0.41

Armia had 17 goals and 25 points in 66 contests last season, and for him, that’s a rather successful campaign. He averaged just 12:22 of ice time at even strength last season while serving primarily in a bottom-six capacity, but he logged a considerable 2:53 per game on the penalty kill. Taken as a whole, Armia is a fine defensive player, but despite being 6-foot-3, 216 pounds, he’s not a major physical presence -- at least not anymore. He did surpass the 100-hit mark in three of four campaigns from 2018-19 through 2021-22, but he was credited for just 49 hits last year, so it seems the 31-year-old has pulled back from that aspect of his game. Armia has one season left on his four-year, $13.6 million contract, so it will be interesting to see if the Finnish forward does a bit better this year while fighting for his next deal, but it’s not likely to make that much of a difference. Armia will continue to provide some value for the Canadiens in a way that doesn’t show up much on the stats sheet.

Alex Newhook

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	16	30	46	0.60

Montreal tried to accelerate their path to competitive hockey when they dealt two draft picks and prospect Gianni Fairbrother to Colorado in exchange for the then 22-year-old Newhook in June of 2023. Taken with the No. 16 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, Newhook was seen as having top-six potential but wasn’t getting that opportunity in Colorado. In his first campaign with the Canadiens, Newhook missed a significant chunk of time due to an ankle injury but did show some promise when healthy, scoring 15 goals and 34 points across 55 contests. He averaged a healthy 16:56 of ice time, including 3:02 with the man advantage, which led to him recording eight power-play points. However, he didn’t often share the ice at even strength with Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki or Cole Caufield. Although it’s possible that trio of young skilled forwards will primarily play together this year while Newhook headlines the second line, it would be interesting if the Canadiens spread out their offense a bit more, and such a move would likely be to Newhook’s benefit, so it’s worth keeping an eye on those line combinations during training camp. Whatever path Montreal takes, Newhook is brimming with potential and should take a significant step forward in 2024-25 if he stays healthy.

Jake Evans

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	8	22	30	0.37

Evans is a great third or fourth-line center who can also be leaned on heavily in shorthanded situations. He provided seven goals and 28 points in 82 contests last season. He also had a minus-one rating, which isn’t bad given the rebuilding squad he’s playing for, though his relative 5v5 CF%/FF% of minus-2.5/-3.2 tells a less appealing story about his play at even strength. On the plus side, he won 593 draws, leading to a respectable 52.2 percent success rate on the draw. He also blocked 65 shots, which is quite a bit for a forward. Now 28 years old, Evans is what he is. The Ontario native isn’t going to make headlines, but he will fulfill his role capably. It’s worth remembering that he’s in the final season of his three-year, $5.1 million contract, and he’s the type of depth forward contending teams take an interest in during the trade deadline. If Montreal isn’t competing for a playoff spot by that time, it would make a lot of sense for Evans to be traded.

Juraj Slafkovsky

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	25	38	63	0.77

Montreal locked up Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield to long-term contracts before they firmly established what they would become. It was a risky decision, but it paid off with each of those deals now looking awfully team-friendly, so naturally the Canadiens took the same approach by inking Slafkovsky to an eight-year, $60.8 million contract that won’t even begin until 2025-26. Selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, that $7.6 million annual cap hit might end up looking like a steal, especially with the cap starting to go up at a meaningful pace. However, that’s assuming he continues to make strides after an encouraging 2023-24 campaign. He had 20 goals, 50 points, 55 PIM, 71 blocks and 152 hits in 82 contests last season. Unlike Suzuki and Caufield, who offer plenty of skill, but not much grit, Slafkovsky has the makings of a power forward at 6-foot-3, 230 pounds. He spent most of his even-strength minutes in 2023-24 on the ice with Caufield and Suzuki, and the fact that he could serve in that physical capacity helped balance that top line. However, it would be interesting to see if Montreal experiments with breaking up that trio in the interest of better balancing the team’s offense over two lines. Outside of those three forwards and defenseman Mike Matheson, no other member of the Canadiens even reached the 40-point mark, and while that was in part due to Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach running into injury troubles, the Canadiens’ lines being so top-heavy was another factor. While playing on the top line would doubtlessly be ideal for the 20-year-old Slafkovsky, his value isn’t dependent on his linemates, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him elevate his game beyond his 2023-24 showing.

Kirby Dach

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	15	43	58	0.78

Injuries have become a major problem for Dach. He was limited to 18 games in 2020-21, 58 contests in 2022-23 and then logged just two appearances last season before suffering a torn right ACL and MCL that required surgery. At least he’s expected to be healthy for the start of 2024-25, but history has unfortunately told us to be weary of his chances of playing a full campaign -- his career high in games still stands at just 70. If he were to stay healthy, though, the 23-year-old would likely log big minutes as a top-six forward and possibly even hold a spot on Montreal’s top power-play unit. Under those circumstances, a 50-point showing would be entirely feasible, should he stay healthy. That might not be his offensive peak either. Although he’s had a rough career thus far, Dach does have a significant amount of untapped upside, and the Alberta native is still young enough to potentially reach the promise that Chicago saw when he was taken with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft. As things stand right now, though, betting on Dach to succeed would be risky. At least, he’s a manageable risk from Montreal’s perspective due to his relatively low $3,362,500 annual cap hit through 2025-26.

DEFENSE

Michael Matheson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	12	48	60	0.74

Matheson is shaping up to be something of a late bloomer from an offensive perspective, but that’s in part because of his changing circumstances. Back during his tenures with Florida and Pittsburgh, he reached the 20-point mark four times over five campaigns while seeing limited use on the power play. Once he joined Montreal, though, the Quebec native was leaned on heavily with the man advantage and he took full advantage. Matheson recorded 11 goals and a career-high 62 points in 82 contests last season, including 28 power-play points. He also averaged 25:33 of ice time, which is the most in his career, and a big jump compared to his 18:44 per game during his two campaigns with Pittsburgh in 2020-21 and 2021-22. Those massive minutes with Montreal included an average of 2:59 on the penalty kill last year. He also took more defensive zone faceoffs than offensive ones, which further highlights that he was more than just an offensive blueliner for the Canadiens. Matheson also finished in a tie for 10th in the league with 186 blocks. Montreal will probably lean on him heavily again this season, but the Canadiens do have a crop of young defensemen who should eventually grow into bigger roles.

David Savard

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
64	6	16	22	0.34

Savard is a defensive defenseman is the back half of his career. He’s been something of a stabilizing force for the Canadiens on the blue line for the past three years, though his time with the squad might be drawing to a close as Montreal’s younger defensemen start to come into their own while Savard is entering the final campaign of his four-year, $14 million contract. The 33-year-old (34 on Oct. 22) had six goals, 24 points, 24 PIM, 163 blocks and 69 hits across 60 contests last season. He might do a little worse offensively in this campaign, and in particular he’ll probably score fewer goals after posting a 11.1 shooting percentage last season (his career average is 4.9). However, he should continue to put himself in front of a lot of shots and will be one of the Canadiens’ main penalty killers. Savard might also end up getting dealt at the trade deadline if Montreal isn’t in a playoff position. That worked out for him at the end of his previous contract with Columbus -- the Blue Jackets traded him to Tampa Bay in April 2021, and he provided the Lightning with valuable defensive depth en route to a Stanley Cup championship. If he does get moved, though, his playing time will probably decrease compared to the 20:14 of ice time he averaged in 2023-24 as stronger teams would likely prefer him in a third-pairing role.

Kaiden Guhle

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	7	23	30	0.38

Montreal’s defense is led by two veterans in Michael Matheson and David Savard, but past that is a group of young blueliners beginning to establish themselves. At the forefront of the new wave of Canadiens defensemen is Guhle, who recorded six goals, 22 points, 56 PIM, 178 blocks and 116 hits in 70 contests last season while averaging 20:51 of ice time. Not ready to shift into offseason mode after the Canadiens’ campaign ended, he joined Team Canada for the World Championship, providing a goal and five points in nine contests during the tournament. Guhle has the potential to develop into a great two-way defenseman, though he’s always likely to lean more toward the defensive side of the game. That bias towards defense over offense is clear in how Montreal has been utilizing him so far, sending him out frequently on the penalty kill, but rarely on the power play. He also had 17.2 percent of his shifts start in the defensive zone compared to just 7.5 percent in the offensive zone. Guhle is expected to continue to be used more at his own end of the ice, and he’s unlikely to secure a regular role on the power play this season unless injuries force the Canadiens into a major change. Even still, we might see a modest increase in the 22-year-old’s scoring production as he continues to get comfortable in the NHL.

GOAL

Samuel Montembeault

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
44	19	20	5	2	0.904	2.93

Cayden Primeau

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
38	17	17	4	1	0.902	3.12

The Montreal Canadiens are officially in their rebuilding era - but not in net, at least not yet. The Canadiens focused their off-season efforts on shoring up scoring, leaving the tandem of Samuel Montembeault and Cayden Primeau - serviceable, if a bit unspectacular as a pair - to go it alone without a locker room veteran to round out the goaltending carousel. Montembeault and Primeau both sat comfortably right at the league average last season, with Primeau putting up the better raw performances while Montembeault favored better in terms of shouldering a heavier workload. And that, given how poorly the rest of the Montreal lineup performed, is about all the team could have asked for.

The loss of Carey Price as the team's rock and guiding force still stings, though, and even serviceable performances from a pair of affordable netminders felt a bit underwhelming in the aftermath of a starter who dragged even the most inconsistent of teams up into contending territory. That legacy adds an extra layer of pressure for both of next year's starters, who will be expected to at the very least replicate their solid performance from last year. The real spotlight will be on Primeau, who was once considered the heir apparent to Price's throne. But if the addition of Patrik Laine can ignite some scorepower up front for Montreal, the pressure will be on both Primeau and Montembeault to help elevate the team out of the basement as well.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Standout Rookies and Riding the Seattle Wave

Scott Cullen — Fri, 27 Jan 2023 19:31:57 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, standout rookies Owen Power and Cole Perfetti are scoring, Jared McCann and Oliver Bjorkstrand are riding the wave in Seattle, Filip Chytil is emerging as a scoring threat and much more.

BOSTON, MA - APRIL 28: Buffalo Sabres defenseman Owen Power. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The first pick in the 2021 Draft, Buffalo Sabres defenseman Owen Power has been an impact player from the drop of the puck but has been getting overlooked to some degree because he was not scoring. He had no goals and 15 assists through 41 games. Those days could be in the past, as he has three goals and an assist during a four-game point streak. He may have his offensive ceiling capped by Rasmus Dahlin getting first unit power play time, but Power could provide sneaky offensive value down the stretch.

#2 Another rookie to keep in mind, is the Jets’ Cole Perfetti. The 10^th pick in the 2020 Draft, Perfetti has moved up the Winnipeg depth chart to skate on a line with Kyle Connor and Pierre-Luc Dubois. In his past 10 games, Perfetti has contributed nine points (1 G, 8 A), giving him 29 points for the season. That puts him in second place in rookie scoring, seven points behind Seattle’s Matty Beniers.

#3 Staying in Winnipeg but moving to the other end of the career spectrum, 36-year-old right winger Blake Wheeler continues to put up points and remains available in many fantasy leagues. Even with reduced ice time, Wheeler has nine points (3 G, 6 A) in his past eight games, giving him 36 points in 41 games. In a change of pace, Wheeler has six power play goals and just four power play assists. It would be the first season of his career in which he finishes with more power play goals than assists.

#4 As the Seattle Kraken have surprisingly become one of the top scoring teams in the league, Jared McCann is leading the way with 23 goals. He has 12 points (7 G, 5 A) in his past 13 games. Among players that have played at least 500 five-on-five minutes, McCann has scored a league-best 2.29 goals per 60 minutes. The rest of the Top 10 is Jason Robertson, Jack Hughes, Tage Thompson, David Pastrnak, Cole Caufield, Connor McDavid, Victor Olofsson, Brayden Point, and Mikko Rantanen, so McCann is traveling in some rare company.

#5 Coming off a career-high 28 goals and 57 points for Columbus last season, Oliver Bjorkstrand was supposed to be an impact player for the Kraken. He scored a goal on opening night and then went 17 games without a goal. There has been progress lately, though, as he has seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 30 shots on goal in his past 10 games

#6 Due to a lack of premier playmaking options down the middle in Columbus, veteran Boone Jenner is still handling the first line center role and he has scored a goal in three straight games, but also has gone 11 games without recording an assist. The goals and hit totals are enough to give Jenner fantasy value, but if he is playing with Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine, there have to be a few more helpers on the board.

#7 Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Timothy Liljegren picked up a couple of points in Wednesday’s 3-2 overtime win against the New York Rangers and the 23-year-old is stepping into a bigger role. He has six points (2 G, 4 A) in his past nine games and has played more than 20 minutes in six of his past seven games. Since the start of last season, the Maple Leafs are controlling 57.4% of expected goals during five-on-five play with Liljegren on the ice. Among defensemen to play at least 1500 minutes, only three come in with a higher percentage – Charlie McAvoy, Jaccob Slavin, and Matt Grzelcyk.

#8 In that Rangers loss at Toronto, Blueshirts center Filip Chytil scored a pair of goals, and he now has a career-high 15 goals in 40 games. In his past 10 games, Chytil has 11 points (7 G, 4 A) and 29 shots on goal, so it looks like the 23-year-old is ready to move beyond a depth role with the Rangers and become a real offensive contributor.

#9 Buffalo Sabres winger Victor Olofsson is on a goal-scoring tear, putting up 11 points (10 G, 1 A) and 38 shots on goal in the past 12 games. That gives Olofsson 23 goals and six assists in 48 games, making him a contender for the hockey Cy Young award. Cole Caufield (26 G, 10 A) is closest, but the Montreal Canadiens winger is done for the season with a shoulder injury. Aside from Olofsson, the players with the most goals, while still recording single digit assists totals are Brandon Saad (14 G, 7 A) and Josh Anderson (14 G, 3 A).

#10 The ninth pick in the 2017 Draft, Detroit Red Wings forward Michael Rasmussen took some time to develop but appears to be taking the next step in his development. After notching a goal and an assist in Thursday’s 4-3 overtime win at Montreal, Rasmussen has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal in his past six games. At 6-foot-6, Rasmussen can play both center and wing and is up to 24 points (9 G, 15 A) in 45 games, pushing closer to his career high of 27 points, set in 80 games last season.

#11 While the Nashville Predators have called up Juuso Parssinen and Tomas Novak to fill center ice spots, the latest center to move to the top line is Cody Glass, who has quietly been a nice reclamation project for the Preds. In his past 19 games, Glass has 14 points (5 G, 9 A) to go with 38 shots on goal. He has been moved up the depth chart to center Nashville’s top line, between Filip Forsberg and Matt Duchene, so if the production continues, Glass should be able to count on remaining in a strong situation.

#12 Even with Jake Allen returning from injury to help stabilize the Montreal Canadiens’ goaltending situation, Samuel Montembeault has surely earned a substantial role in the Habs crease. In the past three weeks, Montembeault has started eight games and delivered a .930 save percentage in that time. He has a .910 save percentage in 21 starts and his 10 wins is already a career high.

#13 Montreal has a long list of injured players, and it includes eight skaters that have been regulars in the lineup this season. That has resulted in Rem Pitlick and rookie Jesse Ylonen securing spots among the top six forwards and Evgeny Dadonov is getting firs unit power play time. Of those three, Dadonov would have the most fantasy appeal, and it’s not much.

#14 The return of Josh Norris to the Ottawa Senators lineup was brief, as he will now have season-ending shoulder surgery. Considering where the Senators are in the standings, this should mean a good run for rookie Shane Pinto. He has 19 points (12 G, 7 A) in 47 games, which is not going to draw fantasy interest even though 12 goals rank third among rookie goal-scorers, but if Pinto’s ice time goes up, there will be an opportunity for him to produce more later in the season.

#15 For much of the season, the New York Rangers have been trying to figure out the right combination of linemates for star winger Artemi Panarin. Although he is still scoring better than a point per game, Panarin has five points (1 G, 4 A) in the past eight games and one of those games was a three-assist effort against Florida. The latest line combinations for the Blueshirts have Panarin skating with Mika Zibanejad and Jimmy Vesey. Certainly, Panarin and Zibanejad are rostered just about everywhere, but this is quite an opportunity for Vesey who has four points (2 G, 2 A) in his past 16 games and played a season-high 19:18 at Toronto on Wednesday.

#16 It looked so good early in the season for Jack Eichel in Vegas. He was healthy and scoring, but now as his production is slowing down, he has taken public criticism from head coach Bruce Cassidy. In six games since Mark Stone landed on the injured list, Eichel has managed one assist and 11 shots on goal, which is not nearly good enough, but the Golden Knights are not exactly setting up Eichel to succeed at this point – his most recent linemates are Nicolas Roy and Paul Cotter and it’s a big ask for those players to handle the responsibility of playing on a No. 1 scoring line for a Stanley Cup contender.

#17 Carolina Hurricanes left winger Andrei Svechnikov has yet to score in 2023, picking up five assists in 11 games, but that could make him a good buy-low option on the fantasy trade market. Svechnikov is still generating chances – he has 41 shots on goal in those 11 games – and while there is some variance in his ice time from game to game, he is still averaging more than 18 minutes per game over that stretch, which is consistent with his average time on ice for the season. So, the opportunities are there for him and the Hurricanes have plenty of incentive to get Svechnikov back on track.

#18 Another possible buy-low candidate is skating in Ottawa. Alex DeBrincat has three points (2 G, 1 A) in 11 games since the calendar turned to 2023. While he has 39 points in 47 games, DeBrincat has just 15 goals, which is well below the pace that he was scoring at for Chicago in the past couple of seasons. However, DeBrincat is actually averaging 3.52 shots on goal per game this season, more than he ever has in his career. The problem is that he is scoring on 9.6% of his shots, which is way down form the 17.2% that he scored on in the past two seasons. But if the percentages bounce back a bit, DeBrincat could still have a hot streak of goal-scoring in him.

#19 Since January 1, the leaders in per 60 minutes individual expected goals in all situations (minimum 50 minutes): John Tavares, Max Pacioretty, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid, Timo Meier, Brady Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, Jack Hughes, and Matthew Tkachuk. The season-ending Achilles injury to Pacioretty is obviously a big loss for the Hurricanes and most of these names are to be expected, though Tavares being tops in the league is somewhat surprising and Verhaeghe is showing that he is a consistent scoring force. In his past six games, Verhaeghe has eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 25 shots on goal.

#20 At the other end of the spectrum, looking at forwards that have not been generating a lot of chances or expected goals in 2023, naturally, a lot of those forwards are fourth liners, who are often not expected to contribute offensively. However, there are some notable names among the bottom 40 forwards when it comes to expected goals per 60 in 2023. That includes Mike Hoffman, Jonathan Toews, Jack Roslovic and…Mitch Marner? Marner has 15 points (4 G, 11 A) with 24 shots on goal in 12 games in the new year, but perhaps that stark difference between Tavares and Marner helps explain why the Maple Leafs went back to having Marner play with Auston Matthews earlier this week.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Konecny is the Hottest Player in the League – The Good and the Bad of Nashville Predators Prospects, The High-scoring Seattle Kraken – Kevin Hayes bounces back and much more.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 13 Jan 2023 15:51:27 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - NOVEMBER 05: Philadelphia Flyers Right Wing Travis Konecny (11) before a face-off during third period National Hockey League action between the Philadelphia Flyers and Ottawa Senators on November 5, 2022, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Travis Konecny of the Philadelphia Flyers is the hottest player in the league; the good and the bad of Nashville Predators prospects, the high-scoring Seattle Kraken, Kevin Hayes bounces back and much more.

#1 Philadelphia Flyers right winger Travis Konecny is busting out with the best season of his career. He has already tied his career high with 24 goals but has done so in just 36 games. Konecny scored a hat trick in Wednesday’s win over Washington, extending his point streak to 10 games, during which he has piled up 20 points (12 G, 8 A) and 32 shots on goal. For a Flyers team that is starting to show improvement since, especially since the holiday break, Konecny has emerged as a bona fide star.

#2 Nashville has done some remodeling to their forward group on the fly, and it has included calling up Thomas Novak and Juuso Parssinen from the American Hockey League. The two centers are also getting first unit power play time. Novak, 25, had 26 points (11 G, 15 A) in 25 AHL games and has been able to produce for the Preds too. He has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 25 shots on goal in 12 games for Nashville. Parssinen, 21, was called up sooner. He had a goal and an assist in Thursday’s loss at Montreal and now has seven points (1 G, 6 A) during a five-game point streak.

#3 Nashville’s handling of forward prospects has taken some heat, however, after they lost winger Eeli Tolvanen to Seattle on waivers. Tolvanen, 23, was a first-round pick in 2017. He scored a goal in Thursday’s win at Boston, giving him six points (4 G, 2 A) in seven games since he was grabbed off waivers by Seattle. Tolvanen has 14 shots on goal and 16 hits in those seven games, making an immediate impact in a depth role with the Kraken.

#4 Although he is not used in the role of a prime playmaking center, as might have been anticipated when he joined the Kraken via the expansion draft, Yanni Gourde is contributing. In his past 15 games, Gourde has put up 13 points (3 G, 10 A) and 27 shots on goal, and all of those points have come at even strength. The Kraken have scored 3.63 goals per 60 minutes, which ranks third, behind only the Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins.

#5 One more to watch for the Kraken: defenseman Vince Dunn recorded an assist at Boston on Thursday, giving him 30 points (7 G, 23 A) in just 41 games. He is on a tear lately, producing 12 points (3 G, 9 A) and 16 shots on goal in the past eight games. Dunn tied his career high with 35 points last season, but it appears that he is well on his way to a new career high in point production this season.

#6 Although he was a healthy scratch recently, Philadelphia Flyers center Kevin Hayes has still been a productive playmaker. In the past five games, Hayes has six points (1 G, 5 A) and 17 shots on goal. The elevated shot rate is relatively new for Hayes. He has a career high 2.78 shots on goal per game, though he is scoring on just 8.8% of his shots, the second lowest shooting percentage of his career.

#7 While there are rumors about the Toronto Maple Leafs acquiring a forward to play in their top six, versatile veteran Calle Jarnkrok is making the most of his chance to play up in the lineup. Jarnkrok has 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in his past 15 games, and is skating on the left side with John Tavares and Mitch Marner, a line that is effectively Toronto’s top line while Auston Matthews remains out of the lineup. Jarnkrok, who scored a career high 35 points in 68 games in 2017-2018, has 20 points (9 G, 11 A) in 36 games for the Maple Leafs.

#8 Second year New Jersey Devils forward Dawson Mercer scored a pair of goals in Tuesday’s big comeback win at Carolina, giving him seven points (2 G, 5 A) in the past six games. Consistency has been a little more challenging for Mercer, as this production followed a seven-game drought, during which he had zero points and 14 shots on goal. His role is suspect, too. He is most appealing when he ends up on the wing with emerging superstar Jack Hughes, but Mercer has moved to right wing on the third line, without a regular spot on the Devils power play now that Ondrej Palat has returned from injury.

#9 The Arizona Coyotes have been giving 22-year-old center Barrett Hayton, the fifth pick in the 2018 Draft, ample opportunity to prove that he belongs in the National Hockey League. With little competition in the middle of the ice, Hayton has recently been centering Arizona’s top line, with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz on the wings. Hayton has produced nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 21 shots on goal in the past eight games, which is taking his game to a new level and might offer some hope for his role in the future.

#10 Scoring the tying goal against Dallas in the final second of regulation on Thursday, New York Rangers defenseman K’Andre Miller has seven points (3 G, 4 A) in the past five games, and has a career high 23 points (5 G, 18 A) in 43 games. The smooth-skating 6-foot-5 blueliner has just two points on the power play, so his 19 even-strength points puts him in a tie with Quinn Hughes, Darnell Nurse, Erik Gustafsson, and Hampus Lindholm for ninth among defensemen. His offensive ceiling is going to remain limited because Adam Fox is going to be the No. 1 power play option for the Rangers, but Miller is improving dramatically in just his third NHL season.

#11 With injuries hitting the St. Louis Blues hard, veteran left winger Brandon Saad has stepped up. Although he was held off the scoresheet in two games against the Calgary Flames, he still has eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 18 shots on goal in the past eight games and is skating on a line with Brayden Schenn and Ivan Barbashev. That is a veteran trio that plays hard and in straight lines.

#12 He is not playing enough to get a standard fantasy recommendation just yet, but Columbus Blue Jackets rookie winger Kirill Marchenko had a hat trick against Carolina last Saturday and has scored nine goals in his first 18 NHL games. Of course, he is still seeking his first assist so there is room for improvement, but the 22-year-old also had 19 points (8 G, 11 A) in 16 AHL games to earn his promotion to Columbus. The Blue Jackets are obviously rebuilding so expect Marchenko and fellow rookie Kent Johnson to see plenty of ice time in the second half of the season.

#13 Injuries in Philadelphia prompted the call-up of 23-year-old goaltender Samuel Ersson from the AHL. He had a .910 save percentage in 18 AHL games, which is solid, but he has delivered a .924 save percentage in his first five NHL games, flashing talent that might make him a legitimate long-term asset for the Flyers. For fantasy purposes, Ersson has little value when Carter Hart is healthy, but is well worth a look in long-term dynasty leagues.

#14 Los Angeles Kings right winger Gabriel Vilardi got off to a great start to the season, staying healthy for once and showing the kind of offensive chops that made him the 11^th pick in the 2017 Draft. He then went through a dry spell, a 17-game span during which he had four points (3 G, 1 A) with three of those points coming on the power play. Vilardi has rebounded, however, and has 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in his past 12 games, making the most of his opportunity to skate on a line with Kevin Fiala and Blake Lizotte, in addition to getting first unit power play time for the Kings.

#15 With No. 1 center Roope Hintz out of the lineup, veteran Tyler Seguin has moved up the depth chart in Dallas to play with Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski on the Stars’ top line. Seguin has a goal and an assist in two games since making the move and is worth adding while Hintz is out. Really, anyone getting a chance to play with Robertson and Pavelski will have some value, and Seguin is the lucky one right now.

#16 The Chicago Blackhawks have placed Patrick Kane on the injured list due to a lower-body injury. While this season has been far from vintage Kane, the Blackhawks will have to find new sources of offense. Rookie Lukas Reichel has displayed some potential with three points (1 G, 2 A) and eight shots on goal in four games since getting called up from the American Hockey League. Taylor Raddysh might have more immediate appeal, as the 24-year-old tallied his 11th goal of the season in Thursday’s win over Colorado.

#17 An injury to Jake Allen could give Montreal Canadiens goaltender Samuel Montembeault some regular starts, at least in the short term. Montembeault has a .902 save percentage in 15 games for the Habs this season, and while that might sound mediocre, he had a .892 save percentage in 63 NHL games prior to this season, so this is progress. Of course, wins are not coming easily in Montreal, but if Montembeault can continue to play at this level, he will solidify his spot in the league.

#18 New York Rangers left winger Chris Kreider is out of the lineup, dealing with an upper-body injury and that has opened the door for Alexis Lafreniere. The 2020 first overall pick was a healthy scratch recently and last scored a goal on December 7, but he played a career-high 21:21 in Thursday’s 2-1 overtime win against Dallas. He also recorded three shots on goal, something he had done just once in his previous 12 games.

#19 It is looking like 38-year-old Florida Panthers center Eric Staal still has some gas left in the tank. Since the beginning of December, Staal has contributed 13 points (6 G, 7 A) and 38 shots on goal in 20 games. He played more than 15 minutes in 13 of those 20 games, a significant role for a guy who did not play in the NHL last season. With Anton Lundell moving up the depth chart to play left wing on Aleksander Barkov’s line, Staal has stepped in to handle the third-line center role for the Panthers.

#20 Since the holiday break, Winnipeg Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers leads in all-situations points per 60 minutes (minimum 50 minutes played), followed by Travis Konecny, Kyle Connor, Filip Forsberg, Lucas Raymond, Matthew Tkachuk, Viktor Arvidsson, Nikita Kucherov, Connor McDavid, and Kevin Fiala. Since returning from injury, Ehlers has changed the dynamic in Winnipeg, which is not unexpected – he is an elite play-driving winger who can create a ton of scoring chances. While most of those players are rostered already, Lucas Raymond and Viktor Arvidsson are more readily available to help your fantasy team.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

CULLEN: 20 Fantasy Points – Physical Forwards Providing Offense, More Players Landing Bigger Roles Early in the Season

Scott Cullen — Fri, 04 Nov 2022 19:28:40 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, physical forwards like Nick Paul and Lawson Crouse who are scoring enough to offer fantasy value, smaller wingers like Jeff Skinner and Travis Konecny starting strong, and some more players landing bigger roles early in the season.

SAN JOSE, CA - OCTOBER 29: Tampa Bay Lightning Defenceman Mikhail Sergachev (98) and Left Wing Nicholas Paul (20) take positions shoulder to shoulder for a faceoff during the third period of a regular season NHL hockey game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the San Jose Sharks on October 29, 2022, at SAP Center, in San Jose, CA. (Photo by Tony Ding/Icon Sportswire)

#1 When the Tampa Bay Lightning traded for Nick Paul last season, he had proven himself to be a reliable checking forward, capable of playing both wing and center. He has started to produce more offensively in Tampa Bay. He scored 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in 21 regular-season games last season before adding nine points (5 G, 4 A) in 23 playoff games. With Anthony Cirelli out to start the season, Paul has responded to an increased role. He is playing more than 18 minutes per game and a goal against Carolina on Thursday was Paul’s seventh point (3 G, 4 A) in his past six games. Through 11 games, Paul also has 19 hits and 13 blocked shots, so he is a category stuffer.

#2 For all of the problems in Arizona, it does mean that left winger Lawson Crouse can count on playing a significant role for the Coyotes. The 6-foot-4 winger has 29 hits in 10 games, to go with five goals and seven points. Crouse had the first 20-goal season of his career last season but will need to increase his shot output if he is going to continue scoring at this rate because his 26.3% shooting percentage is not going to be sustainable over a full season.

#3 Consistency can be elusive for Buffalo Sabres winger Jeff Skinner, so it was not a huge surprise when, after he had zero goals and two assists in six games, he was more readily available on the waiver wire in fantasy leagues. In the past four games, Skinner has eight points (2 G, 6 A) and continues to have success skating on a line with Tage Thompson. One thing to watch, though: Skinner has just 2.50 shots on goal per game, which would be only the second time in the past 12 seasons that he has averaged less than three shots on goal per game.

#4 While he came into the spotlight this week for jousting with Toronto Maple Leafs sniper Auston Matthews, Philadelphia Flyers right winger Travis Konecny is taking a leadership role on a rebuilding Flyers team. Konecny has produced 11 points (4 G, 7 A) with 33 shots on goal through 10 games and he is playing a ton – more than 20 minutes per game is a significant jump from last season’s career high of 17:37 per game.

#5 With Aaron Ekblad out of the lineup for the Florida Panthers, there is going to be some expectation that others on the Panthers blueline can step up to fill the void. Gustav Forsling is one option and Brandon Montour is another. Montour is playing more than 26 minutes per game and has put up eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 30 shots on goal in nine games.

#6 An unheralded type on the Washington Capitals blueline, Nick Jensen has not only contributed seven points (1 G, 6 A) in 12 games, but he has17 hits and 21 blocked shots, which provides good value for fantasy purposes. Jensen had a career-high 21 points last season, so his offensive contributions are not likely to be significant, but he is averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game, a threshold he has not maintained over a full season in his NHL career.

#7 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand scored in the first game of the season and has yet to light the lamp since. That does not mean that he is not contributing, however. After picking up an assist in Thursday’s 4-0 win at Minnesota, Bjorkstrand has seven points (1 G, 6 A) and 45 shots on goal in 12 games. The Kraken are getting 59.1% of 5v5 shot attempts when Bjorkstrand is on the ice, so he is probably a decent buy-low candidate for fantasy managers.

#8 In the summer, the Seattle Kraken did not give a qualifying offer to winger Daniel Sprong, a 25-year-old who has shown that he can put the puck in the net but has not had a well-rounded enough game to secure his spot in the lineup. Ultimately, Sprong re-signed in Seattle, and he has very effective in a limited role for the Kraken. In six games, while playing less than 11 minutes per game, Sprong has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 13 shots on goal. He is still not getting enough ice time to like his long-term value but if Sprong continues to produce, he could start to earn a bigger role with the Kraken.

#9 New York Islanders center Jean-Gabriel Pageau scored his first goal of the season in Thursday’s 5-2 win over the slumping St. Louis Blues. Pageau has six points (1 G, 5 A) in 11 games, but has fantasy appeal because he is a hitter. He has 38 hits in 11 games, which puts him in rare company. Noel Acciari, 4.0 hits per game, and Vincent Trocheck, with 3.5 hits per game, are the only centers with more hits per game than Pageau (3.45).

#10 Winnipeg Jets center Adam Lowry is more known for his physical play. After recording six hits against Montreal on Thursday, he now has 27 hits through 10 games. Lowry also has six points (2 G, 4 A) in 10 games. He has never had a 30-point season in his NHL career, so don’t bank on that production continuing, but it is worth keeping an eye on him.

#11 File this name away for a little later in the season. 23-year-old Devils winger Fabian Zetterlund has a couple of points (1 G, 1 A) in six games, but he is performing well alongside Nico Hischier and Tomas Tatar, controlling 66.7% of expected goals during 5-on-5 play. Zetterlund is a sturdy winger who had 52 points (24 G, 28 A) in 58 AHL games for Binghamton last season. Forwards with the highest rate of individual expected goals during 5-on-5 play (minimum 50 minutes): Stefan Noesen (2.11), Zach Parise (2.04), Zach Hyman (1.64), Auston Matthews (1.54), Dakota Joshua (1.52), and Fabian Zetterlund (1.46).

#12 While the players on the lowest end of individual expected goals are typically fourth liners, there are some more offensively inclined players hovering near the bottom. James van Riemsdyk, Max Domi, Ryan Strome, J.T. Miller, and Brayden Schenn are all among the Bottom 30.

#13 While the Edmonton Oilers are obviously invested in Jack Campbell as their starting goaltender after signing him as a free agent in the summer, rookie Stuart Skinner could force some difficult playing time decisions. Skinner has a .944 save percentage in five games, compared to Campbell’s .881 save percentage in seven games. This is a small sample of games for any player, but especially goaltenders, so Skinner’s early success does not mean that he will surely outplay Campbell this season. However, if Skinner continues to play at such a high level, he is going to warrant a role more substantial than that afforded to the typical backup goaltender.

#14 Skinner is not the only surprise backup goaltender early in the season. Among goalies who do not lead their team in starts, Vegas’ Adin Hill, Buffalo’s Craig Anderson, Chicago’s third-stringer Arvid Soderblom, Nashville’s Kevin Lankinen, Montreal’s Samuel Montembeault, and Washington’s Charlie Lindgren have all performed very well in a small sample of games to open the season. It will take more than a few games for any of them to push for playing time but a strong start to the season is the best way to force a change in goaltending plans.

#15 St. Louis Blues center Ryan O’Reilly is off to a terrible start in a contract year. The 31-year-old pivot has one point (1 G, 0 A) and 20 shots on goal in nine games. While his possession numbers are okay, the Blues have been outscored 10-2 during 5-on-5 play with O’Reilly on the ice. That is hardly typical performance from a center who has finished in the top five of Selke Trophy voting in four straight seasons, winning the award following the 2018-2019 season.

#16 Other prominent forwards that are starting slowly: Sam Reinhart, Teuvo Teravainen, Brendan Gallagher, Jordan Kyrou, and Kailer Yamamoto.

Reinhart has 31 shots on goal in 11 games, the highest per-game shot rate of his career and has yet to score.

Teravainen is still seeking his first goal despite putting 26 shots on net in 10 games. Carolina’s top line has had trouble finishing early in the season.

Kyrou has three goals in nine games but has zero assists and is minus-15. Relative to his teammates, the puck is moving the right way when Kyrou is on the ice, but his on-ice shooting percentage is 3.9% and his on-ice save percentage is .821, both ridiculously low.

Gallagher has three points (2 G, 1 A) in 11 games but his 2.36 shots on goal per game is a career low.

Yamamoto has never been a big shot generator, so even though he is playing a career-high 17:35 per game, his 1.40 shots per game is still around his career average. That leaves him with zero goals and three assists in 10 games.

From this group, Reinhart, Teravainen, and Kyrou look like good buy-low opportunities, while Gallagher and Yamamoto are riskier plays moving forward.

#17 The ninth pick in the 2021 Draft, Dylan Guenther is getting a quality opportunity to play with a rebuilding Coyotes team. He is getting buried in terms of shot quality, with the Coyotes getting 30.7% of expected goals while Guenther is on the ice during 5-on-5 play, but his Corsi percentage of 44.9% ranks third among Arizona forwards. Guenther has shown some of his skill around the net, contributing six points (2 G, 4 A) in nine games and given that this season is about development, Guenther should see his ice time increase as the year goes on.

#18 Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Seth Jones has landed on the injured list with a fractured thumb, thinning out an already thin blueline crew. Caleb Jones is seeing more power play time and has six assists in his past six games. Jack Johnson led Chicago defensemen in ice time during Thursday’s 2-1 overtime win against Los Angeles.

#19 While Tampa Bay Lightning superstar defenseman Victor Hedman nurses an upper-body injury, Mikhail Sergachev is getting even more opportunity to step to the forefront. Sergachev has three points (1 G, 2 A) in two games that Hedman has missed, averaging more than 27 minutes of ice time per game.

#20 With Ryan Hartman suffering a shoulder injury in a fight with Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Jarred Tinordi, Minnesota is getting perilously thin down the middle of the ice. Joel Eriksson Ek is followed on the depth chart by Frederick Gaudreau, Marco Rossi, and Sam Steel. This would seem to be a prime opportunity for Rossi to step into a bigger role, and he did play a career-high 16:39 in Thursday’s 4-0 loss to Seattle, but the Wild ended up shifting Matt Boldy to play the middle between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello on the top line.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – New and Unexpected Opportunities for Veterans and Prospects

Scott Cullen — Thu, 07 Oct 2021 20:51:28 +0000

Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, a look at the fallout from injuries and other situations that might be creating new and unexpected opportunities for playing time this season, featuring veterans like Jake Allen and Jeff Carter, but also prospects William Eklund, Hendrix Lapierre, Shane Pinto, Lucas Raymond, and more.

#1 With the sudden news that Carey Price is entering the player assistance program, that leaves the Montreal Canadiens with a challenge in net, but they at least have a veteran capable of handling a starting role in Price’s absence. Jake Allen has a .912 save percentage in his career and .909 in 158 games across the past four seasons so he is hovering around league average performance. To be fair, while Price has been outstanding in recent playoff performances, his save percentage across the past four seasons has been .909, so Allen ought to be able to provide similar regular-season results. The Canadiens recently claimed Samuel Montembeault on waivers from Florida so their depth at the position is in better shape than it might have been previously.

#2 Few contending teams are in as precarious a position as the Pittsburgh Penguins to start the season, missing Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Crosby may only be out for a couple of weeks, but Malkin may miss the first couple of months, at least, and that leaves opportunities in the middle of the ice. The most obvious one to fill a hole at center is veteran Jeff Carter and that can be good and bad. At 36-years-old it is asking a lot for Carter to handle first-line center responsibilities and while he did score nine goals in 14 games for the Penguins last season, that was due largely to an unsustainable shooting percentage of 24.3%. In the short term, at least, it also looks like Evan Rodrigues could take some work at center but with 15 points in 42 games with the Penguins over the past season-plus, he could be a deep league consideration with an increased role.

#3 As off-ice troubles continue to follow Evander Kane at seemingly every turn, that does create a potential opening in the Sharks lineup. I wrote about Jonathan Dahlen last week and Alexander Barabanov could take advantage of an opportunity but, maybe the most intriguing option would be 2021 seventh overall pick William Eklund, who is a fresh-faced 18-year-old, but he also produced 23 points (11 G, 12 A) in 40 games for Djurgardens in the Swedish Hockey League last season. He is obviously a big part of the Sharks’ plans for the future but might be part of their plans for the present.

NEWARK, NJ - OCTOBER 04: Washington Capitals center Hendrix Lapierre (29) during the pre-season National Hockey League game between the New Jersey Devils and the Washington Capitals on October 4, 2021 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

#4 The Washington Capitals have been vague about the status of veteran center Nicklas Backstrom and, at the very least, it appears that he will not be ready to start the season with the Capitals and that means a big hole in the Washington lineup. Veteran center Lars Eller can move into a top-six role, which he did when Evgeny Kuznetsov missed time last season, but Hendrix Lapierre could find a regular role in the top nine, too. Lapierre was the 22^nd pick in the 2020 Draft and put up 31 points (8 G, 23 A) in 21 games for Chicoutimi in the QMJHL last season.

#5 Not long after he was selected by the Seattle Kraken in the expansion draft, former Tampa Bay Lightning center Yanni Gourde required shoulder surgery that was expected to require four months of recovery, which would cause him to miss at least a month of the NHL season. Now Gourde sure appears to be ahead of schedule in his recovery and has real potential as the Kraken’s number one center but, in the meantime, Jared McCann looks to be the immediate beneficiary, skating on the top line with Jaden Schwartz and Jordan Eberle and while McCann reaped the rewards of high percentages in Pittsburgh last season, on his way to contributing 32 points (14 G, 18 A) in 43 games, and that does make regression likely, McCann also played 14:07 per game which he should easily surpass, by at least a few minutes per game, with Seattle.

VANCOUVER, BC - APRIL 22: Ottawa Senators center Shane Pinto (57) skates up ice during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on April 22, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#6 Ottawa Senators center Colin White requires shoulder surgery and is going to miss 4-6 months, which helps secure top nine spots for a couple of Sens centers: rookie Shane Pinto and veteran Chris Tierney. Pinto produced 32 points (15 G, 17 A) in 28 games at the University of North Dakota last season, then added seven points (1 G, 6 A) in 12 late-season games for the Sens. It sure looks like a great opportunity for Pinto to play a significant role in his rookie season.

#7 The second pick in the 2020 Draft by the Los Angeles Kings, center Quinton Byfield suffered a broken ankle Wednesday, going into the boards very awkwardly due to a hit from Arizona Coyotes winger Christian Fischer. In the short term for the Kings, Blake Lizotte and Jarret Anderson-Dolan might have a better shot at fitting into the lineup but as the season progresses, maybe an opportunity opens up for another top prospect like Alex Turcotte, who might have a better chance to get called up in Byfield’s absence.

#8 The Arizona Coyotes spent most of their offseason shedding salaries but, ultimately, they need to have a full roster and that will present opportunities. One player who will get a chance with the Coyotes is Alex Galchenyuk, who signed a one-year, $750,000 deal with Arizona. Galchenyuk had 41 points (19 G, 22 A) in 72 games for the Coyotes in 2018-2019 but has 37 points (13 G, 24 A) in 94 games split between four teams across the past two seasons. His career has gone downhill since some early success in Montreal but there may be an opportunity for Galchenyuk to produce a bit in the desert.

#9 Columbus Blue Jackets center Max Domi had shoulder surgery in early June and was looking at a 4–6-month recovery time and now that he has passed the four month timeline, it does appear that Domi has a chance to be ready early in the regular season, potentially even by opening night. Would Domi’s potential return hinder the opportunity for the rookies trying to crack the Blue Jackets lineup? Yegor Chinakhov and Cole Sillinger have impressed in camp and could force their way into the lineup but that could get more challenging if another veteran returns to claim a spot.

#10 It is not like the Detroit Red Wings have been overrun with skill in recent seasons so losing Jakub Vrana to shoulder surgery, which will keep him out for four months, is crushing. However, that does create a chance for Lucas Raymond, the fourth pick in the 2020 Draft to play for the Red Wings right away. Raymond had 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 34 Swedish Hockey League games last season and might have been a likely candidate to start in the AHL this year, but the Wings could at least give Raymond an early look to see if he can keep the pace in the NHL.

#11 Everything in Buffalo seems to be overshadowed by the Jack Eichel situation and the Sabres are likely going to have a hard time without him, but they also might have someone flying under the radar a bit in veteran winger Jeff Skinner. Since scoring 40 goals in 82 games for the Sabres in 2018-2019, Skinner has managed 37 points (21 G, 16 A) in 112 games for Buffalo. But part of the issue was that previous Sabres coach Ralph Krueger got so frustrated with Skinner that he buried him on the depth chart – his most common linemate in the past two seasons was Curtis Lazar. At the very least, Skinner should be looking at a role more suited to his offensive skills this season.

#12 The New Jersey Devils blueline looks to be in tough shape entering the season, with injuries potentially keeping Damon Severson and Ty Smith out of the lineup. This would mean bigger roles for Jonas Siegenthaler and P.K. Subban but also could open up roster spots for the likes of Christian Jaros and Mason Geertsen, who was recently claimed on waivers. For fantasy purposes, Subban is the only one of those four with any potential and even his fantasy impact has declined quite significantly in recent seasons.

#13 While the New York Islanders are hopeful that veteran netminder Semyon Varlamov will be ready for the start of the season, it is possible that a nagging undisclosed injury could keep him out of the lineup and that would mean Ilya Sorokin gets the early starts for the Islanders. Sorokin had a .918 save percentage in 22 games for the Islanders last season which makes him one of the higher-quality backups in the league.

#14 Edmonton Oilers winger Kailer Yamamoto is currently dealing with a head injury, which could affect his start to the season. The hope for fantasy managers is that a healthy Yamamoto gets to skate alongside Leon Draisaitl consistently at evens because, in the past two seasons, the Oilers have outscored opponents 59-27 during 5-on-5 play with Draisaitl and Yamamoto on the ice and Draisaitl has assisted on 14 of Yamamoto’s 19 goals in the past two seasons.

#15 Montreal Canadiens winger Mike Hoffman is working his way back from a lower-body injury and is likely to miss at least a couple of weeks at the start of the season, possibly more. His absence seems to make for an easier fit for Jonathan Drouin’s return to a top-six role at 5-on-5 and the bigger issue may be on the power play, where Brendan Gallagher or Tyler Toffoli could get bumped to the second unit if the Habs’ plan is to ultimately have Hoffman and Cole Caufield as shooters on each side.

#16 With Kevin Hayes recovering from abdominal surgery, which could cost him the first month of the season and the Philadelphia Flyers demoting prospect Morgan Frost, it looks like Derick Brassard has a chance to play a significant early role for Philadelphia. He did have some productive years under Alain Vigneault with the New York Rangers, but Brassard has 75 points in 189 games with five different teams across the past three seasons.

#17 A player worth considering in deep leagues, even as a waiver pickup at some point early in the season is Chicago’s Wyatt Kalynuk, who is likely to miss 2-4 weeks at the start of the season due to a sprained ankle, but he had nine points (4 G, 5 A) in 21 games for Chicago last season and, when healthy, still see some second unit power play time.

#18 The St. Louis Blues appear to be giving a long look to left winger Jake Neighbours, the 26^th pick in the 2020 Draft who tallied 33 points (9 G, 24 A) in 19 games for Edmonton in the Western Hockey League last season. With Oskar Sundqvist still recovering from knee surgery, maybe that helps Neighbours get some early action with the Blues and his performance can dictate whether he stays or goes.

#19 Last season, the New Jersey Devils gave a lot of young forwards a chance to play and show what they could do in the NHL. That list included Yegor Sharangovich, Janne Kuokkanen, and Michael McLeod, but also Nathan Bastian, Mikhail Maltsev, Nick Merkley, and Nick Merkley – all of those players logged at least 300 minutes for the Devils last season. This year, the team is improved, in part because of the development of some of those young forwards, but also has some rookie forwards that are legitimate contenders for spots. Alexander Holtz was the seventh pick in the 2020 Draft and scored 18 points (7 G, 11 A) in 40 SHL games before adding two points (1 G, 1 A) in 10 AHL games last season. Then there is Dawson Mercer, the 18^th pick in the 2020 Draft who had 36 points (19 G, 17 A) in 23 QMJHL games for Chicoutimi last season. The Devils need their infusion of skill up front, but the question is if they decide that they need it immediately.

#20 While the first two picks of the 2021 Draft, Owen Power and Matty Beniers, are going back to the University of Michigan (as are fourth pick Luke Hughes and fifth pick Kent Johnson), the third pick in the 2021 Draft is making a push to start this season with the Anaheim Ducks. Mason McTavish had 18 points (11 G, 7 A) in 17 regular-season-plus-playoff-games for EHC Olten in Switzerland last season, shifting gears when there was no Ontario Hockey League season, and he does not look out of place on this rebuilding Ducks roster.

2021-22 TOP 15 PROSPECTS: FLORIDA PANTHERS – RANK: #20 – TIER IV

McKeen's Hockey — Fri, 10 Sep 2021 16:07:50 +0000

Florida Panthers

#20 Florida - The Panthers' system has the best goalie prospect around, and three more top 100 guys, but zero depth, a residual effect of the Tallon years.

TAMPA, FL - MAY 26: Florida Panthers goaltender Spencer Knight (30) during Game 6 of the First Round of the NHL Play-offs between the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning on May 26, 2021 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)

Spencer Knight

Here is our runaway top goaltending prospect in the sport. This would have been the case even if the Panthers hadn’t shown us in the post-season that they were willing to play Knight in the net at the expense of Sergei Bobrovsky, their incumbent starter, signed to a very long-term contract, for a very big cap hit. In watching Knight over the past four seasons, it is safe to state here that he has no notable weak spots to his game. He is the embodiment of everything an NHL team hopes to see in any goalie prospect, the yardstick against which all others are measured. He fills up the net; He is very athletic; He is exceptionally square to the shooter; He steps up in the biggest moments; He avoids wasted movements; He anticipates the play masterfully; He can play the puck himself better than most NHL goalies; He avoids unforced second chances by the opposition.

We, at McKeen’s, liked him enough in his draft year to feel comfortable projecting him as a rare first round goaltender (although this is growing less rare every year, it seems), and he has only improved over two seasons with Boston College, topping a .930 save percentage each year. His brief, late-season and post-season cameos with Florida only maintained these impressions. Knight will be pushing Bobrovsky for playing time all season, and sooner than later, force Florida into a buyout. He is a star in the making. - RW

Anton Lundell

We don’t yet know whether Lundell will spend the season in the NHL, but we know that there is nothing left for him to figure out in Finland, where he finished his age 19 season as the fifth best scorer on a point-per-game basis of anyone who played at least 20 games. He also captained Team Finland to a Bronze Medal at the WJC, while tying for third overall in tournament scoring among all nations. Finally, he was Finland’s leading scorer at the World Championships. So, yeah, it’s pretty amazing that he was available at 12^th overall in last year’s draft, with all due respect to the 11 taken ahead of him.

Skating will never be his strong suit and is the primary reason why he wasn’t drafted higher, but he knows how to get himself into open space and then capitalize on any opportunities that develop once he gets there. Equal parts creator and finisher, he can seem faster with the puck on his stick than he is when empty-handed. He can seem to lack physicality, but that is a byproduct of his patience, as he prefers to wait for something to develop then to force an error with aggression. Further, he will play in the greasy areas, but lets the play come to him, rather than trying to hunt it down. Even if he doesn’t break into the NHL full time this year, Lundell has first line center upside, and it will be here sooner than later. - RW

Grigori Denisenko

Last summer Denisenko left the KHL with some believing it was too early for him to make the jump. On one hand he had a very good World Juniors that year, while on the other he really had not established himself as a full-time KHL player yet. Unable to secure a KHL loan to start the previous season, Denisenko had to wait for the NHL/AHL to start to play. Thankfully, it does not appear it had any long-term effect, as when the AHL season started he looked totally solid there, even earning a call-up to the NHL, making it to the total of seven NHL games in his debut North American season.

Next season will be quite critical for him in terms of his development as an NHL player. He has the skating ability, a great right-handed shot and the overall attacking skillset. He needs to put everything together consistently and live up to his potential as a top line NHL player. Not easy to predict if he will succeed, but the star potential is certainly there, which should make the Panthers organization and fans really hopeful that he does. - VF

Mackie Samoskevich

Michigan commit Mackie Samoskevich had a season of two halves. He had 10 points within four games, and after a three-point night on January 2nd, giving him 21 points in 14 games, things changed. He was held off the scoresheet for two games, and then was held out of the lineup due to injury for six weeks. When he returned, he still had his moments, but the frequency of his magic was gone, finishing the regular season with 16 more points in 20 games. While some of these inconsistencies can be chalked up to injury recovery, it does make Samoskevich a bit of a gamble as a first round selection.

His best two characteristics are his skating ability and playmaking sense. When healthy, he flies. His ability to get from his own to the offensive end is high-end, regularly forcing the defenses into mistakes. He can maintain that speed over longer distances, but also has the short-area quickness to win races for loose pucks within a zone, and the edges to turn those wins into news playmaking lanes. These are not player comparisons, per se, but you can see some elements of what has made players like Mathew Barzal and Jonathan Huberdeau so successful as NHLers when watching Samoskevich. He will attend the University of Michigan next season and will look to carve out a significant role on that incredibly deep team. Hopefully he is able to improve his consistency, add some muscle, and improve his play away from the puck in his time at Ann Arbor. - RW

Ty Smilanic

One of the biggest 2020 draft day fallers, Florida scooped Smilanic up in the 3^rd round, and the young forward is already making the Panthers feel good about the pick thanks to a very strong freshman campaign with Quinnipiac, tying for the team lead in goals. Perhaps if his draft year had not been inundated with multiple injuries, his potential would have been easier to spot. As is, he is a swift skater, has a well-rounded offensive game – even if he trended much more towards goals this year – and can be utilized in all situations, as his average of over 2.5 minutes of shorthanded ice time per game for the Bobcats indicates.

Currently utilized as a center, there is a school of thought that he would eventually have more value on the wing. There are also questions about how he will hold up when the going gets rougher, as he could seem to shy away from contact at times. Still filling out a lanky 6-1” frame, perhaps added bulk would give him additional assertiveness in the corners. Whatever the case, Florida has no reason to rush Smilanic in his development. He looks to have a middle six upside now, but we will be a lot smarter about his projection after a normal collegiate season next year, instead of playing the same three teams over and over again. Time is still needed, but he is facing the right direction. - RW

Max Gildon

One of the lesser-reported, funky side effects of COVID on the world of North American hockey was that three AHL franchises elected to keep their rinks shut throughout the season. One of those AHL teams was the Florida affiliate in Charlotte. As a result, the Panthers had to find contingency solutions to keep their not-ready-for-primetime prospects on the ice this year. The bulk of them played with Tampa’s affiliate in Syracuse, but a few required third or fourth options for ice time. Gildon was one of those whose solution required creativity, and he ended up spending the season with Edmonton’s farm club in Bakersfield.

Coming fresh out of the University of New Hampshire, his rookie pro season did not go according to plan but was nonetheless very successful. He was Bakersfield’s leading scorer among defenders, and by the season’s second half, was regularly playing upwards of 22 minutes per game, including a few games above 25 minutes of ice time. As an amateur, Gildon always demonstrated a raw, but tantalizing skill set, with an ideal frame, good mobility, solid puck skills, and a sort of intuition that would lead to excitement – at one end of the rink or the other. He still needs at least one more full AHL campaign before we begin to worry about finding him an NHL job, but his development has remained on the right trajectory since draft day. - RW

Serron Noel

It seems as though the last two years of Noel’s development have really plateaued after a promising start to his career as a prospect in the OHL. Under a point per game in his final season in the OHL, Noel was used sparingly on a deep Syracuse team in his first pro season last year in the AHL. The 6’5, 215lbs winger has an intriguing package of size and skill, but a lack of production (or at least a positive step forward) can often be alarming.

Noel skates well for a big player, especially linearly. Due to the power he generates North/South, Noel excels driving the net where he has the skill to finish off plays in tight. However, he still needs to add more dynamic layers to his stride to make him more effective moving through traffic, when he is not able to drive through defenders. Additionally, his play away from the puck needs to become more consistent, especially if he wants to carve out a career as a high end third line winger, which appears to be his likely high-end potential at this point. This coming season Noel will look to establish himself as a consistently productive AHL player who can stay in the lineup for the Crunch. Positive progression is a must this year after two relatively stagnant years. - BO

Evan Nause

An extremely well-rounded defender, Nause may not be flashy, but he is highly effective. After playing with Sioux Falls of the USHL two seasons ago (where he made the USHL All Rookie Team), Nause joined Quebec of the QMJHL this past year. Interestingly enough, he was drafted in the top ten twice in the QMJHL. First by Val-d’or in 2019 (sixth overall), then by Quebec in 2020 (fifth overall). This past year, there was a transition period at the beginning, but as the QMJHL season progressed, he seemed to look more comfortable with each passing month.

A strong skating defender, Nause uses his strong agility and four-way mobility to impact the game at both ends of the ice. He is comfortable and smooth moving backwards and laterally, allowing him to maintain a close gap when defending in transition. He is quick and fluid moving forward allowing him to escape forecheckers in order to create space for clean exits. Nause is also a highly intelligent defender. His exit passes always seem to hit the mark and it is rare to see him turn the puck over, even when he is trying to play with pace. One might wonder, then, why a 6’2 defender with such a well-rounded skill set would be drafted in the late second round. The answer is that Nause’s NHL potential may be limited to more of a secondary role (perhaps a #4-5) due to the fact that his puck skills are average, and his game is simplistic. If Nause’s offensive capabilities improve, he could look like a steal at the draft. - McKeen’s Draft Guide 2021

Cole Schwindt

This past year was supposed to be Cole Schwindt’s swan song in the OHL. He likely would have taken another step forward offensively, while leading the Mississauga Steelheads to a solid position in the standings. However, the OHL season was canceled due to the pandemic. Thankfully the Panthers found a place for Schwindt to play in the AHL with Syracuse, even if he played sparingly. Not exactly the banner year he would have likely had, but better than nothing.

Drafted as a potentially elite shutdown defensive forward, Schwindt’s confidence as an offensive player and playmaker has blossomed. He still has the qualities that you look for in a great shutdown forward (size, reach, awareness, skating ability), however Florida must have been really happy to see his play with the puck take such a positive step forward previously. In the AHL, Schwindt played the exact kind of role you would have expected, killing penalties, excelling in the defensive end, and engaging on the forecheck. However, offensively he struggled. This year, in his second AHL season, Schwindt should be an AHL regular, and the Panthers will likely get a better indication of whether he can develop into that elite third line forward, or whether he profiles as more of a depth piece. - BO

Justin Sourdif

After being selected in the third round by the Florida Panthers, Sourdif was returned to Vancouver (WHL) to resume his junior career as an 18-year-old, where he dominated in posting 34 points in just 22 games, showing another level of offensive upside that may not have been as apparent in his draft year. An athletic player with great skating abilities, Sourdif is able to blow by or bulldoze through opponents with equal ease thanks to his lower center of gravity. His release is powerful and can beat goalies from distance or from in front with a deft set of hands. His puck control is excellent, and he excels at going to the correct areas on the ice in order for the puck to find him – traits that should translate well to the pro level.

His awareness in all three zones is generally reminiscent of older players, which should endear him to coaches. He thinks the game well and can play center or wing and contribute on the powerplay or penalty kill. He struggles with consistency and needs to bulk up in order to withstand the rigours of the pro game. He will likely play one final season of junior as a 19-year-old in 2021-22, where he figures to be among the top scorers in the league. - AS

Aleksi Heponiemi

A former standout in the WHL, Heponiemi’s transition to pro hockey has not been seamless. The ultra-quick and creative playmaker has had some trouble adjusting to the strength requirements of the pro game. However, he remains a potential middle six forward for the Panthers and will get an opportunity to be a full time NHL player this season.

Matt Kiersted

One of the top prizes of the college free agent crop this past season, Kiersted has been a winner wherever he has played. After four solid seasons with UND, the strong skating, two-way defender has turned pro. He got into a few games with Florida last year and will look to crack the roster again this season in a third pairing role. However, some time at the AHL level may not be terrible for him either.

John Ludvig

A former standout for Portland of the WHL, the big, physical two-way blueliner had a very good first pro season with Syracuse last year. While the roster crunch (no pun intended) limited his game action, he proved that he could develop into a potential top four defender for the Panthers within the next few seasons, with a profile similar to the Maple Leafs’ Jake Muzzin.

Samuel Montembeault

The 2020/21 season was unquestionably a step backwards for the former third round selection, as he struggled in the AHL after getting a long look in the NHL the year prior. He will continue to serve as Florida’s top injury call-up and still has the chance to become Spencer Knight’s back-up in the future.

Michael Benning

A fourth-round pick in 2020, Benning may not be large (5’8, 180lbs) but he is an extremely talented offensive defender. He was an immediate impact player for the University of Denver as a freshman last season and will look to become one of the top offensive blueliners in college this season as a sophomore.