Scouching – McKeen's Hockey

2022 NHL DRAFT: SCOUCHING #10 – Gleb Trikozov – RW/C – Avangard Omsk #8/#71 – Avg. Rnk – 28.13- The Report You’ve All Waited For

Will Scouch — Fri, 27 May 2022 14:37:49 +0000

Gleb Trikozov - RW/C - Avangard Omsk #8/#71 - Avg. Rnk - 28.13

35GP - 23G+22A - 17.82% G% 34.87% INV% - 20.80 NHLeS

Well everyone, the time has come. The Scouching Report on Gleb Trikozov. Gleb was a player I knew next to nothing about coming into the season but after seeing he had made his program’s VHL club out of camp with Ivan Miroshnichenko while being among the younger group of draft eligibles, I took a look and it didn’t take long for me to see huge, huge potential with this player, as well as some pretty sizable flaws. With little ice time down the lineup, Trikozov went back to the MHL and completely blew apart the weaker Eastern Conference of that league. Raw production started off strong with 26 points in his first 21 games, and from February through his playoff run, Trikozov put up 36 points in his last 27 games, finishing with a 1.29 total points per game rate that is 2nd in MHL history for draft eligibles behind Nikita Kucherov, and ahead of Artemi Panarin. According to InStat, Trikozov at even strength is sitting at 4 points per 60 minutes of ice time, and his closest challenger is member of Team Scouching who will be turning 21 in June, Yegor Serdyuk. In all situations, this number rises to a staggering 4.7 points per 60. The NHL’s leader in the same metric was Johnny Gaudreau at 4.53, for context.

If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.

Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video. Powered by Instat.com

We haven’t even gotten into my tracked data, which is also simply bonkers. While Trikozov’s raw dangerous shot rates at both ends weren’t really at the top end of my database, almost every other category, especially offensive ones, are remarkable. He’s the 2nd highest offensive transition volume player both controlled and total transitions, he’s the most involved player in offensive transitions of anyone tracked, maintained control on 76% of those transitions, and is the number one player in terms of total transitions where he’s involved going either direction on the ice. 35% of his offensive transitions were completed carries, which is also highly notable. Once the puck is in the offensive zone, as you’d expect, Trikozov is just hilarious. His offensive threat is above 30, he’s top 10 in the share of total team shot attempts that are Trikozov from dangerous space, he’s top 15 in both dangerous pass attempts and dangerous shot attempts and took or created 58% of his team’s total shot attempts, putting him 2nd in my dataset, and that number was over 60% before the final game I tracked. There are so, so many positive data points to look at, even if he’s playing in a weaker conference in the infamous Russian junior league, but I’ll make the argument that there’s room for improvement here, and I’m highly optimistic for his future, so let’s get into the video.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Trikozov-GetMovePass2.mp4

What immediately jumps out to me is Trikozov’s puck carrying and how he generates his remarkable offensive transition metrics, with a combination of powerful strides pushing him up the ice, and strong, confident and practical skill to manage pressure and navigate both himself and the puck into open space. There are remarkable edges to escape pressure and use open ice with pace and strong puck protection. The dude just carves through defenses with this combination of speed, skill, and intensity that you can most certainly build on for the next few years. He can pull pucks out of pressure and drive through contested space to earn offensive transitions and did so a tremendous amount. Once in the offensive zone, all of this talent can be chained together with a strong mind for playmaking off the rush. He drives deep into the offensive zone, keeping the puck away from opponents and has the ability to make complex pass attempts into dangerous areas. Sometimes he just simply blows you away with individual ability, attacking the neutral zone with pace, attacking defenders with skill, and finishing in close. Even when his skill doesn’t solve things in tight pressure, he is not one to give up on possession and showed that he could battle and gain secondary possession.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Trikozov-MovePassGF.mp4

Trikozov isn’t all about doing everything himself either, as I found he was a strong passer through the neutral zone, spotting options and hitting targets accurately to transport pucks efficiently. He spots seams well to set up linemates on the rush, and based on shooting habits we’ll talk about, I’d like to see this more often. He thinks quickly, knows where linemates are, and the angles he’s comfortable passing pucks makes him potentially just as lethal a playmaker as he is a rush quarterback and goal scorer. Quick shoulder checks and strong awareness of space allows him to also make clear pass options well to maintain possession when pressure is on the way.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Trikozov-Pass6.mp4

There’s just so much potential with the combination of his talents and awareness offensively. Oh, and while his ability to shoot in full stride could use some work, this is a difficult thing to nail down at 17 years old at this kind of speed. But at lower pace, Trikozov’s release might be one of the better shots in the draft. So the on-puck offensive toolkit is fantastic at his best, but off the puck, things are a bit murkier and inconsistent, but anyone who tells you Trikozov is offense-only may be missing some potential here, with that strength on the puck coming away from it at times. I love to see wingers high in the defensive zone show signs of relentless and annoying pressure to drive opponents into making decisions rather than reacting when opponents are comfortable.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Trikozov-MoveShot2.mp4

However, I can absolutely understand how some might not see the same player as I do, as I found that for extended stretches or entire games, Trikozov was taking the foot off the pedal defensively. He had a solid mind for applying pressure but following through like I’ve seen him do at times was really hit or miss, being shaken off puck carriers a little too easily, especially for someone with this kind of skating talent. Just an extra step of consistent work rate could land Trikozov in even more favorable offensive situations coming off board cycles rather than how much rush and off-puck offense I saw. While Trikozov brought great open ice skill at speed, navigating pressure along the boards and keeping the hands quick and evasive was also inconsistent and caused puck losses that felt uncharacteristic.

All the positive individual offense and individual transition results indicate another issue, where I felt that Trikozov was putting a little too much responsibility on his shoulders a little too often, and at times he simply didn’t look like the same player, lacking that characteristic quickness and strength. His passing in the offensive zone was at times sublime, and in transition his vision was also generally strong, but Trikozov had a bit of a tendency to think a little too risky too quickly trying to stretch the ice more than is necessary. Being able to recognize and execute on simpler play rather than challenging at times is a delicate balancing act, and there is a bit of work to do, especially projecting to higher levels for Trikozov to work off linemates a bit more.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Trikozov-BadThink.mp4

The last thing I’ll note is that Trikozov frustratingly showed all the tools to get to dangerous areas, especially on the rush, but of 11 tracked forwards over 40 minutes of 5v5 ice time with 10 individual dangerous shots per 60, Trikozov was 2nd last ahead of Conor Geekie in terms of the percentage of all shot attempts that were dangerous. He’d enter the offensive zone, and while he’s got that quick release, he wouldn’t spot lateral options or create seams to attack the middle at times, and take lower percentage chances off the rush. Granted, in my sample, 9 of his 14 tracked low danger chances occurred in his first three tracked games and the percentage of shot attempts that were dangerous improved from 43.8% to 72%, which may just be a sampling issue, but is worth noting. Again, while there are issues, the results are still very positive, and if all you need is a bit more of a consistent output of what he’s already capable of, it feels like a bit less of a concern in my view.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Trikozov-MoveBadThink.mp4

The Best Part - Diverse Offensive Toolkit

The dude can do it all in the offensive zone. He spots options and seams under pressure or in open ice. He has a clear mindset of getting pucks inside through his passing, both off the rush and spinning off pressure along the boards. While I’d like him getting some more dangerous scoring chances with a bit less distance to the net, the quality of his release is undeniable. Even in his very limited VHL sample from early in the year, Trikozov showed the confidence, skill and creativity in the offensive zone to try to drive results, even if his shot differentials were less than desirable in my tracked game.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Trikozov-MovePass4.mp4

The Good Part - Transition Skill

He can burn the opponent with speed, skill, resilience and creativity to drive massive transition numbers and combine all these skills in succession. He follows up when passing off the puck in transition and uses that speed and momentum to make himself a scoring threat. With space, he brings a dynamic flow to the game, surveying the ice and driving possession, quickly getting into gear to challenge defenders. In 4 of 6 MHL games tracked, Trikozov hit an 80% OCZT, and in one other, he hit 75%, and it was for a multitude of reasons that we’ve outlined and with the speed and skill level I’ve seen, I hope this can be leveraged and improved in the future.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Trikozov-MovePass3.mp4

The Not-So Good Part - IQ and Intensity Inconsistency

While I had the feeling Trikozov’s physical play improved over the year, some shifts and games made him look like a very different player, and I found myself often wanting just a little bit more, and it could’ve gone a long way. With his speed, he could easily close gaps before the puck exits the offensive zone, and I found he was hesitant, only to toss the player aside in the neutral zone and his team gets the chance to come the other way. I might be nitpicky, but I am never a fan of players who can be caught literally standing still in the defensive zone with how quickly the flow of play can change and how quickly smart offensive players can capitalize on open gaps, and it limits his ability to stop cycles. I definitely believe that these lapses may withhold NHL upside and faith from coaches, but the results, talent and potential is so hard to deny that any improvement over time will be extremely welcome and only indicates his value even further.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Trikozov-BadGetGet.mp4

Final Thoughts

What else can I say? Trikozov is one of the few players in this year’s draft that has gotten me excited to sit down and track. He can make tiny, simple offensive zone plays that lead to offense. He can be a ruthless shooter off-puck. He can make plays, even with sticks all over him trying to slow him down. He spots seams and utilizes linemates often to create scoring chances. He can use raw speed, determination and skill to quarterback rushes across both bluelines. There’s certainly tunnel vision at times and would like to see a bit more consistency and responsibility, but this can be worked on. At the same time, the flashes of awareness once the puck is in the offensive zone to quickly execute on dangerous chances is impressive to say the least.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Trikozov-Pass8.mp4

For all the inconsistency, I still will bet on the talent to come out more often, because even without the puck, Trikozov showed the ability to bring his intensity to chasing down puck carriers. His quickness and skill in conjunction at its best can unlock so, so many areas of the game, like off the puck anticipating errant passes and he just kept creeping up and up my list all season long. He’s a 1F for largely being unproven against better competition, even if his Hlinka was strong. I imagine if he were at the U18, we’d be talking a lot more about him. There are consistency issues that could hold him back, there are vision and overconfidence problems that could also limit the chances he gets in the offensive zone, but with time and development, there could be a massive steal for teams willing to take a chance on the young man and surround him with offensive talent.

Final Ratings: Think - 2F, Move - 1C, Get - 2F, Pass - 1C, Shoot - 1C, Overall - 1F

2022 NHL DRAFT: SCOUCHING #5 – Danila Yurov – RW/C – Metallurg Magnitogorsk #22 – Avg. Rnk – 10.74 – One of the Biggest Wild Cards for the 2022 NHL Draft

Will Scouch — Fri, 06 May 2022 19:08:50 +0000

PLANO, TX USA - MAY 3: Russia's Danila Yurov #25 fires a slapshot against Belarus in quarterfinal round action at the 2021 IIHF Ice Hockey U18 World Championship at Children's Health StarCenter on May 3, 2021 in Plano, TX USA. (Photo by Ryan McCullough/HHOF-IIHF Images)

Danila Yurov - RW/C - Metallurg Magnitogorsk #22 - Avg. Rnk - 10.74

23GP - 13G+23A - 13.70% G% 37.94% INV% - 21.66 NHLeS

Danila Yurov rocketed onto the scene with a four goal, seven assist performance at last year’s Under-18 hockey championship, on his way to a silver medal finish. He jumped immediately to the KHL, at least stepping on the ice in 27 games this season, including ice time in the playoffs.

If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.

Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video. Powered by Instat.com

Yurov is a tale of two datasets, really. I really had to dig hard to find KHL games with enough ice time to make the game worth tracking for Yurov, and even in his MHL time, he never crossed 14 5v5 minutes. As such, my sample totals 69 minutes, which is admittedly lower than usual, but not significantly so. Four games were tracked in the KHL, and three were MHL games, and the differences could not be more abundantly clear, but there are some interesting similarities to note as well. Yurov’s MHL data was very, very good in a few ways: 9.5 iDSAT/60, 73 COZT/60, 14.3 DPass/60, and 19.1 ShA/60 all indicate that there’s a ton of evidence that Yurov was performing very well in the offensive zone at that level. In the KHL, the same metrics paint a bit of a fascinating picture with 13.5 iDSAT/60, 36.6 COZT/60, 0 DPass/60 and 3.86 ShA/60. His rate of pass attempts dropped from 109.7 in the MHL to 65.6, as did his offensive transition involvement, going from a remarkable 52.6% in the MHL to a far more pedestrian 28.6%. On the defensive side, Yurov was pretty much consistently a non-factor, with a 6.9% defensive transition involvement percentage, 63rd of 72 defenders, with a 50/50 split allowing control of the puck, putting him 48th. We’ll dive into this a bit more, but there honestly wasn’t much to write home about regarding Yurov’s defensive game in general.

So, on one hand, Yurov was clearly at least a step ahead of MHL competition, constantly transporting pucks with control, setting up plenty of offensive plays, and either taking or setting up a remarkable 51.6% of shot attempts taken while he was on the ice across my sample, but his overall involvement and effectiveness in the KHL was severely limited to almost strictly a finisher in scoring position. The big questions from here are “why did that happen” and “how can it get better”?

We’ll start with the MHL video. Yurov clearly is a player that leads with his brain and processing play and lets his talent work to just make the play he sees. He can hold onto possession of the puck to look for better options and make it tough for players to get on top of him. There’s a strength on the puck as well, able to protect pucks and give linemates valuable time to prolong possession. Yurov does bring creative, practical skill as well, putting pucks around defenders often. He can also fire off quick cuts along the boards and evade MHL pressure easily. He showed solid pace to get to scoring areas, but I didn’t think his finishing skill or shot quality is quite enough to project to massive NHL upside.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Yurov-ThinkMoveGF.mp4

So, most of that is positive, so what happened in the KHL? Many folks have asked the question “Why aren’t they playing Yurov big minutes?”, and my quick response to that after having watched plenty of him in the KHL is “Why should they?” This is one of the reasons the video might be a bit shorter. In Yurov’s KHL minutes he wasn’t really… doing much? Nothing was particularly terrible, but nothing was notable to the point where I saved the footage. On one hand, he can be a quick player with aggressive skill, but in the KHL, it wasn’t enough to push play consistently on his own. He has good offensive instincts and can position himself well in transition, but he lacks the true high-end quickness and skill necessary to penetrate defenses. He can be a physically imposing player in the MHL at times, but in the KHL, it isn’t enough to cause consistent turnovers.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Yurov-GetThinkBadShot.mp4

A lot comes back to “too good for the MHL, but not good enough to move the needle in the KHL”, which isn’t the end of the world, but the lack of high-end traits may limit upside. On the bright side, there are flashes where you see the instincts, quickness along the boards and clever passing but it only came out a handful of times. The hands are good, and he managed to keep possession well at times, but again it rarely came out at the KHL level. It’s also undeniable that Yurov has strong basic scoring instincts at the KHL level, getting to the net and being a tip threat as well as a rebound/off puck threat. To find success in the NHL, Yurov is going to need to keep things somewhat simple and recognize options quickly before facing too much pressure, which he did do in the KHL when he did get a chance to play with the puck.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Yurov-ShotGetMove.mp4

The Best Part - Puck Management

Yurov has a strong mind for the game that allows him to protect the puck well and maintain possession. He reads options well and gets pucks through passing lanes well. Linemates in open space anywhere aren’t much of an issue for Yurov to find and hit targets either. He’s got a good sense of body positioning to protect pucks as well to gain control which should take him a ways in this sport.

The Good Part - Scoring Instincts

This came out in the KHL the most, but I honestly don’t have a ton of video to back it up, admittedly. In the MHL there are projectable traits shooting pucks, often changing angles and attacking

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Yurov-MoveShot.mp4

The Not-So Good Part - NHL Upside

This is just a more nebulous area of the game where a lot with Yurov is good, but not a ton is consistently great that really moves the needle against good competition or showing signs of moving the needle soon in a significant way. He brings a lot of good things to his game, but not a ton that I’d consider “great”, which has limited him. I watch the defending on entries in the MHL and see Yurov not penetrating the middle of the ice and there are still questions about how his game translates to the pro level. It’ll be interesting to see how he develops, because lots is fine, but nothing puts him way over the top like many elite prospects in the draft.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Yurov-MoveBadShot-2.mp4

Final Thoughts

The big question with Yurov will be how much he can improve over the next few years and learn to take the extra step to really push play against good competition with his current speed and skill limitations. It’s undeniable however that Yurov leads with a strong hockey mind that could take him quite a ways in hockey spotting pass options and creating chances for linemates through quick turns, evasion and comfort on his feet. It’ll just be a matter of if it’ll work down the road to the same level, because I have a hard time seeing NHL teams allowing him to get away with lower pace evasion like what I’ve seen.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Yurov-MovePass-3.mp4

There are bright signs however, so if the overall talent improves, especially with regards to quickness and puck control, Yurov could be a great possession winger with playmaking threat as well. But drafting really high in the draft brings the expectation of drafting potentially high-end offensive players. Will Yurov be one of those? I’m not totally convinced, and his defensive profile is marked by inactivity. There are clear signs of a strong possession player, however with his strong on-puck play finding space, reading options and executing on dangerous offensive plays. Should he have played more in the KHL? I dunno, maybe a bit, but even the “big” minute games I caught were still not particularly well-rounded and enough to convince me he was an everyday big minute player at that high a level, and previous KHLers I’ve tracked didn’t really give me the same impression like Rodion Amirov, and recent subject Vladimir Grudinin. There’s a strong floor, and a moderate ceiling, so it’ll all just depend on how you value a profile like that.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Yurov-MovePass-5.mp4

Final Ratings: Think - 1C, Move - 2B, Get - 3B, Pass - 1C, Shoot - 2A, Overall - 2A

2022 NHL DRAFT: SCOUCHING #2 – Filip Mesar – C/RW – HC Poprad

Will Scouch — Wed, 20 Apr 2022 14:58:47 +0000

Filip Mesar - C/RW - HC Poprad - Avg. Rnk - 17.58

37GP - 8G+8A - 7.40% G% 14.81% INV% - 9.12 NHLeScore

Slovakia is in the beginning stages of a relative golden era of young players with names like Simon Nemec, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Dalibor Dvorsky all generating headlines all season for good reason. The name that has always caught my attention for the last two seasons has been Filip Mesar, a forward playing for HC Poprad, and at time of filming, yes, I have him ranked neck-and-neck than fellow 2022 eligible Simon Nemec. Playing against men this season, Mesar has generated rock solid tracked data across the board, with strong rates of zone transition involvement, efficiency in those transitions, especially defensively and extremely strong passing data, completing over 75% of his passes in my sample, matched only by players with significantly smaller samples. Any men’s league player with an offensive threat metric approaching 20 is a solid indicator of potential offensive output, and Mesar brings a nice balance of playmaking and individual scoring chances that blend nicely with the defensive ability he brings according to the data.

If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.

Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video. Powered by Instat.com

2021 IIHF World Junior Championship - Edmonton, AB Canada Game #15 - Finland vs Slovakia preliminary round action at the 2021 IIHF World Junior Championship at Rogers Place on December 30, 2020 in Edmonton, AB Canada. (Photo by Andrea Cardin/HHOF-IIHF Images)

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Filip-Mesar-thinkPass.mp4

Similar to previously profiled player Jiri Kulich, Mesar is marked by a strong feel for the natural flow of a hockey game, with and without the puck. He can anticipate play well, while using strong edges and speed generation to hunt down opposing rushes and pressure puck carriers around the ice. He may be small, but he’s willing to get physically involved and separate players from pucks and establish strong body positioning. Mesar largely played centre in my sample, and I believe he’s a natural fit there with how he reads space, and attacks quickly with the speed he can generate, and absolutely brings that instinct in the defensive end. Being such a fluid and agile skater unlocks so much potential in a player’s game, and Mesar has an excellent ability to quickly strip pucks and find outlets on the backcheck, which largely fed into his impressively low DCZT% in the 14th highest defensive transition involvement percentage of tracked forwards. Even strictly looking positionally, Mesar often seems aware of where his coverage area is, and how to stay in the way of passing and shooting lanes, often as a pickoff threat.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Filip-Mesar-think4.mp4

Of course, while there may be a talented defensive centre with Mesar, what arguably matters more at the top end of the NHL Draft is how a player like that plays on the offensive side, and Mesar is absolutely no slouch. The quickness comes out on offensive rushes often, making himself a target able to separate himself from opponents with ease, keeping things simple and fending off pressure as best he can. He constantly anticipates open space when he smells a breakout, even after getting physically involved. The agility also allows Mesar to work along the boards well at times, even if his raw size and strength isn’t ideal, and he’ll need to build on this area of the game in order to maximize his potential, but the signs are bright in my view. On turnovers, Mesar is often quick to identify targets in open space and executes quickly.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Filip-Mesar-get8.mp4

What I love about Mesar is the fluidity and dynamic pace he brings to the game. He makes pass receptions and puck protection seem effortless at time, using pivots, puck skill and his body to open up space and get pucks to safety. He may lack a truly elite top gear speed-wise, but his brain and agility make up for it for now to me, often pulling pressure towards the middle of the ice on breakouts as a centre and hitting targets back on the wings accurately for easier offensive rushes. His quick thinking, quick hands, and mobility on his feet can be chained together at times to make him a very strong conduit in the neutral zone to get pucks up the ice, something I’ve rarely seen in players in this draft class, especially at the men’s level. There’s also evidence of chaining these quick one-touch plays and awareness of space in the offensive zone, something that will certainly come in handy in the NHL, especially if his strength doesn’t develop as much as it could. Similar to Kulich, you can see flashes of something more with Mesar. The puck skill is currently at a high level to solve a layer of defensive systems, but secondary and tertiary coverage can still be an issue.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Filip-Mesar-Shot-Move-Shot.mp4

A lack of speed can and did cause some issues for Mesar when being closed on by multiple defenders, and when his quick thinking and one-touch passing isn’t an option, his effectiveness was somewhat limited. Mesar has plenty of really promising traits in his game, but he hasn’t managed to produce quite at the level you would think based on what I’ve brought up to this point. While I think a lot of traits are pointed in the right direction, I’d like Mesar to use his agility and skill to attack the middle of the ice a bit more himself as over 60% of his shots came from outside dangerous areas. Because when he did use his edges to build up speed with the puck, drop a shoulder and attack the middle, he was certainly impressive.

I’m still unsure of his actual potential as an NHL goal scorer, but not because I’m pessimistic. He has the right instincts and sneakiness to float into scoring position. And I don’t feel that his shot as it is right now is particularly threatening at the next level, but this can be worked on.

His passing, however, is a hallmark of his offensive potential. Mesar has no issue stopping up, slowing things down, surveying the ice and hitting targets to open up defenses. Coupled with his hands, he has some of the nicer high pace, high intensity rushes I’ve seen of men’s league players this year, so I’ll be looking for more of this in the coming years. There’s just so much to like in Mesar’s game with clear signs of potential for further growth in his ability as a 200-foot centre that will help enable scoring wingers to do what they do best.

The Best Part - Fluidity and Mobility

Mesar’s fluid footwork and clear comfort while skating are clearly apparent. He may not be the fastest player on the ice, but he can cover and create space effectively be it defensively, in transition, or sneaking into space in the offensive zone to maintain cycles. It just unlocks so many areas of the game when you can maneuver around the ice like Mesar in all areas, especially when there’s skill like what Mesar has flashed.

The Good Part - Spatial Awareness

Mesar simply feels the game extremely well. Of course, his mobility certainly helps him stand out here, but this is the kind of player I’m always looking for to play down the middle. Bringing a strong sense of responsibility, space, and intensity to the game all over the ice. He makes himself a cross-ice target on offensive rushes, able to take passes across his body and quarterback pucks up the ice.

The Not-So Good Part - Top Speed and Strength

There honestly isn’t a ton that was really troublesome with Mesar. He’s not the biggest centre you’ll ever come across, and that comes with obvious downsides, but with his lack of explosiveness in forward strides can limit his ability to stick to opponents on offensive rushes if they get a step on him. If that speed doesn’t come a ways, he’s either going to need to strengthen himself while carrying pucks or make his decisions with the puck quicker and more effectively to find truly high end results, as opponents closing in on him could hound him into a turnover a little more often than I’d like.

Final Thoughts

So Mesar lands at a 1D, mostly through the optimism I feel for his game, rather than real inconsistencies that limit his effectiveness. He’s got skill, he’s got mobility, he’s got an excellent mind for the game at both ends, and the only real limit is something that often holds back young talent like this. Separation speed and strength on the puck. The way he can effortlessly follow play, chain plays together and rarely put himself out of the flow of the game has stuck out to me since day 1 relative to this draft class. There are just so many flashes of really projectable traits and thinking that kept me moving him up my board throughout the year, especially juggling all these talents together. The way he sneaks around the ice at a variety of paces, gets advantages on defenders, drives himself into open space and controls possession is high end, even if flawed at times, but there’s a very strong baseline to work with.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Filip-Mesar-ThinkMoveShot.mp4

As with many young players, getting stronger, quicker or both is going to be key to unlocking his potential as a 200-foot puck quarterback, especially those lacking ideal size, but there are signs of a bright future clearly evident now. He’s a great detail-oriented player with a reliable view of the ice, and fixable issues that can be worked on. There’s a high ceiling, but I believe a relatively high floor that has me putting Mesar well into my first round flying a little too far under some radars out there.

Ratings: Think - 1C, Move - 1D, Get - 2A, Pass - 1C, Shoot - 2B, Overall - 1D

SCOUCHING: Whatever Happened To .. Mario Ferraro

Will Scouch — Fri, 19 Feb 2021 18:44:43 +0000

Scouching - NR (Projection: None) | McKeens - 121

ISS - N/A | Future Considerations - 72 | TSN - 81 | NHL CSS 78NA

This edition of “Whatever Happened To…” is a little bit of a change of pace. We’re going to examine a player that has quickly outperformed their draft slot in the years since being selected, exploring exactly what it was that stood out at draft time, and what has evolved between then and now. It can be tough to identify recently drafted players who have already outperformed a low draft slot, and my access to video beyond 2016 is limited at best, but a name that jumped off the page to me was San Jose Sharks defenseman Mario Ferraro.

I’m a believer in production indicating general trends of where to look in a player, and for Ferraro, between his mid-September birthday, making him one of the oldest first time draft eligibles in 2017, and his lack of production at the USHL level, it’s easy to scratch your head when you see the Sharks making him their second selection at 38th in the 2017 NHL Draft. Ferraro has since led his college team to an NCAA championship game and cracked a retooling San Jose Sharks roster that clearly believes in his potential. My question, as always, is why? What is it about this player that led the Sharks to jump the gun and pick him up, and what does he bring to the game that has gotten him into an NHL lineup so quickly?

As always, I tracked seven games since draft time. I’ll also note that I was unable to track down NCAA footage for his freshman year with Amherst, so forgive the leap in time between his USHL season and the beginning of his sophomore NCAA campaign. The trends and changes in his game can still be identified, but I felt it was prudent to note the gap before getting into the article. The seven games tracked were as follows:

Nov 3, 2016 at Chicago Steel
Mar 17, 2017 at Fargo Force
Nov 10, 2018 at Providence College
Apr 13, 2019 vs. Minnesota-Duluth (NCAA Championship)
Oct 16, 2019 vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Feb 1, 2020 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Jan 28, 2021 at Colorado Avalanche

Right from the start, Ferraro jumped out as a player who loved to play bigger than he was. There was a rawness to his game in Game 1 that stuck out. He was chasing physical play often to his own detriment, and Chicago managed to get five of eight defensive transitions past him with control. This isn’t the end of the world, but much of it could be traced to Ferraro relying on trying to hit everything that moves without considering the ramifications of being put out of position. He faced 34 dangerous attempts against per 60 5v5 minutes which is not ideal, and a total of 83 shot attempts against per 60, largely driven of an overly simplistic approach to defensive play. With the focus too much on the body, Ferraro wasn’t preventing pucks from landing on trailing forward sticks, and his lateral mobility limited his ability to effectively press forecheckers against the boards in transition to cut off play.

Ferraro came out of the draft advertised as an offensive defenseman, but I didn’t get that read from looking at his 5v5 game. His passing in game 1 was not noteworthy, and often created more issues than it solved. He handed over possession almost 40% of the time, often driven off of poor vision to make simple passes to linemates under pressure, or hesitating for valuable time with space, and sending a pass to nobody in particular. He did show strong pivoting ability to transition from forwards to backwards skating and did show an ability to temporarily shake off forecheckers and create lanes to run a breakout, but his ability to permanently escape that pressure wasn’t there. This isn’t a deal breaker but as he was in this performance, there wasn’t much evidence of a true offensive weapon, at least not at 5v5.

Game 1 may have highlighted some key issues with Ferraro leading to being a bit lower on lists in the 2017 draft, but there was one trend that would be blatantly obvious every game. He clearly had his head in the right place on almost every shift and worked hard to earn everything he got. To many, that is a valuable trait in a young player. While his ability to generate power and speed in a straight line was not noteworthy, he moved his feet and applied pressure to opponents on retrievals to at least make their decisions more difficult. Far too often I’ll see mobile players taking the foot off the gas on retrievals, giving opponents valuable time to read the ice and find a linemate to create a cycle. Ferraro also showed flashes of reliable positioning defensively, able to impose himself in front of the net, covering dangerous areas and stepping in when necessary. Abandoning that area of the ice when the time wasn’t right to do so was an issue as mentioned before, but as a coach, it would be a matter of working with him to pick his spots better and play a safer style in his own end to make a more reliable defensive player in more areas than just chasing hits.

Game 1 Takeaway: It was clear what could draw a team to Ferraro. His work rate and defensive instincts were there, even if the results were less than desirable in those areas. There were flashes of multi-layered defense, but you want to see more of that out of him rather than flying around the ice trying to hit anyone with the puck. There were signs that with more experience, the fundamental tools of using his brain, stick, and body together to be an effective defender, Ferraro had potential to be a good lockdown defenseman, especially if his puck play could simplify and quicken over time.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Physical-Evolution.mp4

A clear evolution in Ferraro’s approach to physical play, improving body positioning over hit chasing.

Game 2 jumps to the end of the USHL season and already there are signs of improvement on paper. His 62.5% DCZT% improved to a remarkable 21.4% and stayed around that level through the rest of my tracking. His rate of dangerous shot attempts against dropped from 34 per 60 5v5 minutes to 22.4. His team’s dangerous offense dropped from 18.9 dangerous attempts per 60 5v5 minutes to 8.95, largely driving Ferraro’s abysmal 28.6% DSAT% in this game. The issues around Ferraro’s evasive skill and puck movement were still apparent, and a 42% Pass% showed that. He was losing pucks when moving his feet to escape pressure, but in open ice, his ability to move and identify passing lanes to drive offensive transitions were on display once in a while.

Ferraro was still clearly refining his game to pick his spots better, but his ability to apply pressure to fledgling breakouts in the offensive zone was more apparent, establishing body positioning much more effectively and applying pressure that focused on removing the puck from the player and maintaining offensive pressure much more than blasting the opponent to Saturn and potentially causing dangerous breakouts. His trademark hard work was on display, and there were improvements to his ability to win races on retrievals. What happened when that puck was on his stick was still quite hit-or-miss, but when he kept his decisions quick and simple, he was effective. Ferraro was a player who seemed to show that the stronger he got on his feet, and the more he was able to rely on using his stick defensively and then going for physical pressure, the more reliable he could be away from the puck. He’s a rambunctious player on retrievals and when trying to break down board cycles, and while he showed a few shaky moments with his gap management, giving opponents far too much time, this can often be a shortcoming in many defensemen. He still was able to make life more difficult for opponents and seem to overcome his lack of true mobility, reach and strength through admirable hard work and pressure in multiple areas of the ice.

This was his last game I tracked before the draft, so at this point, what’s my takeaway in this limited sample? He definitely wouldn’t be a player I’d label as an “offensive defenseman”, at least not at 5v5, but his pivot ability, work ethic, and improvement in his defensive results over the year certainly would be something of interest. His results were lacklustre, but being about 50/50 on offensive transitions, and improving to the DCZT% he registered would certainly be amongst the best in the data I likely would’ve tracked. Any defenseman who can prevent control on 15 of 20 defensive transitions is a defenseman I’m interested in, even if their shooting differentials are poor. He’s a clear case of “when he gets involved where he’s comfortable, he does well”, but the overall results elsewhere aren’t great. Usually this is a hint that the team around him might have been an issue, but his puck management, especially under pressure would still have given me pause, even at 38th overall where he was drafted. Looking at the names available, there are still some that I believe are developing with tools I would’ve preferred, but Ferraro is the one playing 20+ minutes in the NHL, so clearly this ability to play strong defense is valuable to NHL teams.

Game 2 Takeaway: Some promising improvements, but some issues remain. His puck management still needs simplification, but that simplification was on display and on the way. His work ethic is still there, but he was applying it in more intelligent ways away from the puck. Clear improvements in his patience and defensive methods led him to being more reliable and effective, translating to an exceptional defensive transition performance.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Passing-Tendencies.mp4

A compilation of Ferraro’s issues making quick pass decisions leading to turnovers that still persist at times in the NHL

We jump forward quite a bit to Ferraro’s sophomore season, and his stat line has significantly improved. He completed 80% of his passes, maintained control on 6/9 offensive transitions and prevented control on 8/9 defensive transitions. Just an outstanding performance overall, but his shooting metrics were the worst performance of his I tracked overall, with a 23.8% SAT% and an absolutely brutal 12.5% DSAT. His team managed just one dangerous shot attempt, but he also faced 33.8 dangerous attempts against per 60 5v5 minutes, on par with his results in Game 1. If anything, this is evidence that looking solely at shot metrics when judging individual talent can be a tricky exercise requiring more context.

Ferraro showed impressive improvements in the single area I felt needed improvement: simplicity. Right off the bat, he’s playing a bit more intelligently with his positioning in the neutral zone, pasting himself in a forecheckers zone of influence ready with his stick to break up passes, and if need be, step in to apply physical pressure. When play turns around, he had much better awareness of linemates, able to put pucks off the boards to find simple outlet options rather than relying on his own feet and hands to escape pressure and quarterback a rush. There’s no shame in being a defender who can defuse pressure rather than completely change the flow of the game, and Ferraro is clearly working within his perfectly reasonable limitations here.

I talk about pace of play a lot and Ferraro still did still show some instincts away from the puck that led to the higher rates of dangerous attempts against in this game. On multiple occasions I noted him chasing the puck in the defensive zone far too high near the blueline while Providence forwards feasted on the open ice left behind. Again, this is something a coach could and likely did work on with him, as his HDSATA rates were never anywhere near where they were in this game in my sample.

While Ferraro’s original instinct to crush absolutely everything has been reined in, it certainly doesn’t mean improvements to strength on his frame wouldn’t lead to him simply erasing opponents on numerous occasions. This strength also translated in tandem with his work ethic to be much more reliable in quick adaptation scenarios. He was pinching in the offensive zone a little more than I had seen before, but loose pucks high in the offensive zone weren’t as much of an issue for him to chase down to maintain offensive pressure. There were still issues generating enough speed to quarterback an offensive rush on his own stick, so over time, further simplification of his game to make quicker passing decisions moving pucks felt necessary, but again, his work ethic and dependability away from the puck were on display against Providence.

Game 3 Takeaway: Simply outstanding transition results, a clear improvement in his passing decisions, and clear improvements in the area of body strength, but previous issues regarding puck skill, especially at high work rates remain, leading me to believe that Ferraro was still settling into a defense-first mindset, but when dialed into that mindset, he was extremely effective in multiple areas of the game.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Defensive-Positioning.mp4

Ferraro’s sense of positioning and responsibility away from the puck in the defensive zone came a ways over the years. Valuable seconds with open net-front opponents were cut down significantly over time.

I felt it was worthwhile to track Ferraro’s performance in the 2019 NCAA Ice Hockey Championship game against Minnesota-Duluth. It was an unfortunate game for UMass, and a good indicator of what high, effect high pressure hockey might have on Ferraro’s game. It wasn’t so much a poor performance from Ferraro, especially in the areas where he dominates on defensive transitions (a 16.7% DCZT% is outstanding), but rather, Minnesota-Duluth put up an absolutely overwhelming performance and shut the Minutemen out to win a championship. Funnily enough, Ferraro’s DSAT% of 37.5% was slightly better than any of the previous four games on record, and his DSATA/60 wasn’t particularly poor. The issues largely surrounded Duluth’s ability to read Amherst’s breakouts like a book and close of pass attempts constantly to continue applying pressure to UMass. Ferraro completed just 18 of a remarkable 33 pass attempts, and lost possession on almost two thirds of all offensive transition attempts, his worst to this point.

All that having been said, it’s undeniable that Ferraro’s strength improvements have coincided with his approach to the game to make him a reliable defensive player. When involved in physical encounters, he’s able to free up his stick and continue pressuring the puck, he trails opponents in the defensive zone, rarely jumping the gun and abandoning his partner as he was in the Providence game. He was taking advantage of lollygagging opponents on retrievals, earning his results through his trademark work ethic. There were improvements to his skill at high pace, running a nice rush through the neutral zone driven through smart positioning to pick off an opposing rush. Even in situations where he’s adapting to pressure, where he used to lose control of the puck, he thinks quickly and shovels the puck to teammates.

There are clear improvements to Ferraro thinking on his toes quickly and covering ice in the neutral zone more effectively. Early in tracking, he was chasing pure physical play, but his style has gradually grown more dynamic, focused on mobility and play with his stick, with physical play still being a strong talent in his back pocket. There were numerous passing lanes where Ferraro would emerge from nowhere to simply break up transitions. He may not have been moving pucks to linemates in these situations every time, but these instincts and results are clear indicators of what I’d call a “prevent” defenseman. His ability to simply force the opponent to regroup and reset an offense is a valuable trait, even if there are other areas that remain an issue. He can still panic with the puck under little pressure, and lose track of forecheckers, giving them valuable space, but this seems to be on the decline over time.

Game 4 Takeaway: While the game was a bit of a disaster for UMass, Ferraro showed strong improvements utilizing his improving fundamentals with his natural mindset around the game. He’s working hard, but working hard with more strength and power on his frame. He’s playing physically, but more focused on the puck and removing players from play effectively rather than trying to plaster players along the boards with no regard for the consequences. His passing vision is simplifying, but is still a work in progress, and his defensive reliability with regards to his positioning improved at the NCAA level over his game against Providence. This was his last NCAA game, and his last game outside the NHL and I can see why. Although another year at college might have been worthwhile to iron out some inconsistencies and build on his offensive transition game, but his defensive abilities were and have been at an extremely high level, and the Sharks must have recognized the value in that area.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/OZ-Pressure.mp4

Ferraro continuously shows more and more confidence with picking his spots to step up at the offensive blueline to maintain offensive pressure.

Game 5 was Ferraro’s seventh NHL game, so shortcomings in his transition to the NHL could be forgivable, but his results were quite positive overall. An OCZT% and DCZT% combination of 50% and 38.8% respectively is rock solid for a rookie defenseman, especially one with zero AHL experience. 13 5v5 minutes is not a low workload either, so the Sharks and their staff clearly recognized a valuable defender immediately. His pass% of 62.5% isn’t awful at the NHL level, but his 50% DSAT% was the best I tracked up to this point.

The main area I picked up on, positive or negative, was his puck movement. He clearly is still adjusting to the pace of the NHL game, with moments of panic and hesitation deep in the defensive zone with multiple options available. Settling pucks and orienting himself has been an issue in the past, and higher pace will always expose issues like this. While his strength and power improved to be very notable in the NCAA games I tracked, and his skating in a straight line took steps, it doesn’t seem to be much more than “okay” at the NHL level in this game. He seemed to be biting off more than he could chew quarterbacking offensive rushes, trying to attack the neutral zone with speed and skill that just wasn’t good enough to keep NHL defenses guessing. Again, this isn’t necessarily a negative, as Ferraro’s game always felt more successful in the defensive area, so adjusting to push that style of play at higher levels of play can take time as he tries to push his limits to know where he is and isn’t comfortable. This below average power and speed generation also hampered his retrieval ability, which was part of the reason his DCZT% was a bit more inflated than prior games. NHL players are fast, and many have the work rate Ferraro clearly showed in every previous sample.

He landed a primary assist in this game, which was not registered in the stat sheets I could find, but he definitely shot a puck that went in off a tip in the offensive zone, so that’s nice. I don’t think there’s much of a shooting threat out of Ferraro, as this was the only non-USHL game he played with four individual shot attempts, and his total sample of 10.51 iLDSAT/60 is nothing particularly massive for a defenseman, but points are points, and he still generated one here!

Settling pucks was an issue a few times at this rate of play, but again, that could be something that comes with experience. He often stayed cool under pressure when things weren’t going his way, being able to avert disaster and escape that pressure in some way. The natural ability to pressure opponents both in open ice and along the boards was on display all over the ice. Conservative positioning in the neutral zone, pouncing on loose pucks, and using his mobility to pressure opponents were areas that needed to translate from college for him, and they clearly did.

Game 5 Takeaway: Considering Ferraro hadn’t played more than 10 NHL games at this point, a lot of the positives he showed in this game were very encouraging, and the downsides he showed could be tied to adjusting to a much different level of play than he is used to. A player who showed improvements in the NCAA with his mobility, defensive play, and skill was pushing his envelope in the NHL to his detriment a bit too much, but not in a way that felt impossible to rectify. Overall a pretty impressive game where he often showcased diverse defensive talents, calmness under pressure, and a dependability that NHL teams certainly would latch onto in a young defenseman.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/NZ-Pressure.mp4

Ferraro increasingly relied on positioning and anticipation over physical play through the neutral zone, keeping things simpler and more effective.

Jumping forward to February 2020 before the dark times, Ferraro faced off against the future Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning. This game was absolutely fascinating, and seemed to solidify exactly the kind of defenseman Ferraro could become. His offensive transition involvement fell to just one completed offensive zone entry, but in my view, that’s a good thing. His attempted passes decreased significantly, but his defensive workload grew, and his DCZT% improved to 21.43%. All around huge improvements since his game against Carolina. His ability to establish strong positioning, rely on stick-first defending with physical imposition following, and his calm defense-first mentality to defuse pressure was on display. His NCAA tendency to abandon the front of the net at times has nearly evaporated, and the Sharks were able to keep all but one of the 12 shot attempts they faced to the perimeter of the ice, and Ferraro factored into that.

It was a quieter game overall, but for Ferraro, that’s where I feel he’s always been most comfortable. Maximizing his potential through hard work and intelligent puck-focused defense, with physical play as his ace in the hole isn’t the most attractive style of play, but it’s effective. His ability to establish body positioning between the puck and the opponent, and his ability to move around open ice to cover space and retrieve pucks are repeatable defensive tactics that have solidified his role in the NHL. When his play relied on speed generation against some of the world’s best like say, Nikita Kucherov, he was on the wrong side of play, but nobody is perfect, and the expectations for Ferraro probably shouldn’t be so high as to be a perfect defenseman against a player of Kucherov’s calibre, especially as a rookie fresh out of college.

Ferraro isn’t huge, but he’s already showing himself as a good example that size is just an asset that makes certain parts of the game easier, but is no guarantee of success. He wraps himself around forecheckers and hounds them along the boards, forcing them into decisions they don’t want to make, and with more skilled and speedy players on the ice with him, Ferraro’s play enables them to think more about offensive play rather than worrying about their defensive coverage.

The only questionable hole in his game that still stands is his play with the puck. The time to process a decision with the puck has decreased, and he isn’t inviting nearly as much pressure on himself, nor is he biting off more than he’s capable of in the offensive sense, but his fundamental ability to make those decisions quickly and to identify the safest option and execute that option is still a work in progress. A few great defensive plays were undermined by poor passing without enough strength behind the passes to get to their targets, especially in the defensive zone. One poor attempt here and there in the wrong situation can lead to dangerous attempts against, but on the upside, his ability to recover from these mistakes and rely on his off-puck defense again provided good coverage for those issues.

Game 6 Takeaway: Clear, NHL-level improvements overall. A quieter game in a good way, Ferraro is settling into a defensive role that is focused on effective transition defense, and strong positional defensive zone play thriving off his work ethic and strength improvements. Completing more of those first passes in the defensive zone would go a long way to improving his on-ice shot attempt impact, but his impact defensively is blatantly apparent, and won’t show up on score sheets at the end of the game.

The 2020-21 season led to significant increases in Ferraro’s ice time, paired with Erik Karlsson and currently sits third in total ice time among their defenders. Let me first say that pairing Ferraro with the style of defender that Erik Karlsson represents is exactly the right idea at this point. Karlsson still has great confidence with the puck in transition through the neutral zone and is a great outlet for putting shots on net, but oh my goodness are there blatant problems with Erik Karlsson in 2021 that made Ferraro’s defensive impact much less noticeable. Karlsson in the defensive zone outside of using his stick to free up pucks was porous at best. His mobility is nowhere near what it used to be. I was a Karlsson truther for a very long time, but watching him paired with Ferraro was like watching the game evolve into the 2020s in fast motion. Luckily the Sharks have a daring, exciting offensive defenseman in Ryan Merkley developing in the AHL, and he is a player who I could easily see being a great offset for Ferraro’s defensive style. The point is, I look at Mario Ferraro’s 18.2% DSAT% and see him doing everything he can to prevent defensive entries with a 20% DCZT%, and positioning himself to avoid dangerous attempts as best he can. His partner on the other hand… well, his partner wasn’t much help.

Ferraro again had a game with just one attempted offensive transition, but again, I didn’t feel it was a bad thing. “Get the puck to Erik Karlsson” is a perfectly reasonable breakout strategy, and it worked far more often than not. The Colorado Avalanche are a legitimate juggernaut, and on his first shift, Ferraro had a great retrieval establishing body positioning on Gabriel Landeskog to prevent an entry, and quickly executed a pass attempt along the boards that led to a defensive exit. Later in the game he did the exact same thing to Nate MacKinnon. It didn’t matter who he was dealing with; he just went out and played some dang defense. Forcing Colorado to reset their offense in the neutral zone and repeating the process is a strategy that can work, so long as players like Ferraro are on the ice.

In my view, quickness and mobility are an absolute must for any defenseman. I don’t care if you’re 5’6” or 6’6”. The NHL game is fast, because everyone on the ice is fast. You have to move fast and think fast if you’re going to keep up. Close support of linemates is also vital to identifying and creating open space to start counterattacks, and Ferraro showed these instincts often, supporting his partner on his defensive entries and getting pucks to safety effectively. His conservative play on retrievals was visible, making quick shifts and movements to get into open ice and start breakouts. At times the panic set in, but his pass% exploded to 80% on 21 attempts, driven largely by the simplifications in his game. His rush offense game is largely gone in favor of a defensive hard worker who plays a fearless and diverse defensive style that often completely shut down a Colorado Avalanche team as best he could.

Game 7 Takeaway: Mario Ferraro the NHL defenseman seems to have arrived. Erik Karlsson the NHL defenseman seems to be doing the opposite. Not sure what else to say. As much as I love my memories of him over the last 10 years, I hate to say that injuries and the evolution of the game seem to have caught up with him. That was legitimately my strongest takeaway from this game, but Ferraro clearly settling into a solid role and looking comfortable in that role is great to see.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/DZ-Pressure.mp4

Ferraro’s defensive zone pressure started off excellent and remained so. Relentless work ethic to apply pressure and close out opposing offenses.

So, What Happened?

As is tradition, three points of diagnosis for what I saw in Mario Ferraro over the years:

The Sharks identified a defender that can try a bit more offense than you think he can pull off but one who could be harnessed into a strong defensive player.
To quote Torbjörn the Engineer: “Hard Work Pays Off!”
Slow refinements to settle his game into a reliable defense-first player without losing his work ethic and mobility lead to a useful, if imperfect NHL defender.

Mario Ferraro is a perfect example of how far hard work can take a hockey player, especially in the eyes of an NHL team. His offensive game in the USHL was on display a bit more than in the NCAA and NHL I suppose, but it was immediately apparent that his pace, speed, passing vision and skill weren’t exactly promising enough to potential translate to the next level. What was clear was his defensive play. He was unrefined, unreliable, and inconsistent defensively in Game 1, but his work ethic and intensity level were quickly leveraged into being a more reliable defensive player very quickly. His ability to use his mobility to be a conservatively positioned defender capable of closing off defensive transitions in a variety of situations rather than as a puck rushing quarterback is a perfectly reasonable shift in his game over the years. His play with the puck can still be quite hit or miss, but his ability to cover his tracks and quickly reset defensively is reliable and notable. The San Jose Sharks are a team that is struggling, and as such, names like Ferraro will get more and more ice time to offset the declining play of older veterans, but he hasn’t looked entirely out of place in a top four role with the team. He shows great determination along with a diverse set of defensive skills and tendencies away from the puck that should take him a long way. I don’t expect Ferraro to win Norris Trophies in his career, and I don’t expect him to score a ton of points, but as a true, modern defensive defenseman similar to Alexander Romanov, there’s a lot to like with Ferraro.

What did I learn? It’s always enticing to look at production in defenseman and latch on as a measure of future success, but it isn’t always the right approach. Production only points you in the right direction of positive play as a functional unit, but it doesn’t point you in the direction of actual defensive talent. With Ferraro, his ability to clog defensive breakouts, gain body positioning, lead with his stick and follow through with his body all lead to him being a rock solid defensive player. His pass percentages improved in the NHL over time, but there were still issues with quick decisions that weren’t executed optimally, and his offensive transition game has all but disappeared. With more experience, the passing ideally improves, and his game feels at it’s best when he’s playing with a defender who can engage offensively and move pucks with more skill and pace than Ferraro can while Ferraro monitors open defensive ice looking to stop potential entries.

All of these defensive traits in tandem are great NHL building blocks to work with, and if his passing game does improve, the points will naturally follow as other teammates finish the job. For now, my read is that Ferraro is a perfectly fine second pair defensive defenseman who you can throw out on penalty kills to chew intense defensive minutes. Is there anything wrong with that? Absolutely not, and for a guy drafted in 2017 to come all this way, landing himself on a pair with Erik Karlsson four seasons later, the Sharks took a chance early on this guy and the bet already seems to be paying off. A player who has his job because his team is bad, he is not. He’s a legitimate defensive defender who has evolved steadily over the years to rely on mobility, intelligence and pure determination to likely be a foundation of the Sharks’ next generation of young talent.

If you liked this article, consider following my work on Twitter, YouTube, or consider supporting me directly through Patreon!

SCOUCHING #22: Jake Sanderson – LHD – U.S. National U18 Team – Video/Analytics Breakdown

Will Scouch — Thu, 09 Jul 2020 15:43:58 +0000

Jake Sanderson - LHD - U.S. National U18 Team - NHL CSS NA4

47GP - 7G+22A - 4.58% G% 18.95%INV - 17.17 NHLeScore

Part of my work is using the production a player generates, scaling it relative to their team’s quality and how the production appears relative to prior years. I believe that points come from somewhere somehow, and you need to explore why a player may be producing, or why they might not be. Jake Sanderson was not a player I expected to be a player as high on my list as he is, and yet in the eyes of most scouts, he’s still often ranked higher than that. Coming out of tracking him, I couldn’t help but think that Sanderson is a great example of when a lack of production may be misleading, and stat counters, including myself might want to take a look at what it is that he does so well that makes him so coveted.

If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.

Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video

Think

It is immediately apparent that Sanderson is a highly intelligent defensive leaning defender at both ends of the ice. He tracks play extremely well, anticipating loose pucks aggressively, and is often willing to pinch deep in the offensive zone to maintain possession. Sanderson is highly active, especially in defensive transitions moving forecheckers where he needs them to be in order for him to shut that breakout down. He isn’t often overcommitting and putting himself out of position in the neutral zone and chooses the time to close gaps very effectively.

He can be surprisingly active in the offensive zone, willing to step in and apply pressure in more dangerous areas, or to clog up potential breakouts. With the puck, he’ll survey and spot seams and is more than happy to skate with it while spotting wingers for offensive zone transitions. 3rd among sampled defenders in terms of offensive transitions across the defensive blueline but leads in controlled offensive transitions over the defensive blueline.

He isn’t perfect, however. Positionally in the defensive zone, he can get caught watching the puck from areas that aren’t under threat. While a gifted skater with good skill, he seems to lack a true separation gear with the puck that can lead him to hold onto pucks too long, putting too much responsibility on his shoulder. This is absolutely rare relative to his positives, however. A defender with excellent intelligence and gap control while also able to carry and pass pucks effectively to find linemates and move pucks up the ice. He can swing wide, draw defensemen out and move pucks back inside, or cut into the middle and disperse to the outside. This is a very dynamic defenseman with the puck all over the ice, and very intelligent without it shutting down breakouts down the middle or along the wings.

Think Get

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ThinkGet.mp4

Move

In this area, Sanderson is simply gifted. There’s a great ability to generate power through his crossovers while staying upright with good puck control the whole way. He’ll often use little stops and his skill to open up ice after drawing defenders in to move pucks as well. He was a constant threat moving pucks offensively. He was #1 of all sampled defenders in COZT/60 and did it with control 74.7% of the time, good enough for best of all profiled defensemen and 3rd of sampled defenders. 100.6 pass attempts/60 doesn’t mean he’s solely carrying pucks either. He knows when to power into open ice with the puck, and when to move it to forwards in the NZ and OZ.

Defensively, he’s outstanding using his east-west skating to close gaps, keep them tight, and constantly challenge forecheckers with his stick. A 2 here might seem harsh, but I found his skill to be good, but not great, and his straight-line speed was lacking. We’re talking about a potential top-10 pick defender, here, so being careful is paramount to maximizing the value at your pick. Still, he has the ability to leverage his feet into being the best transition defender I’ve tracked this year, combined with his dynamic ability to control the puck offensively which is an excellent series of tools to work with.

After November, his OCZT% went from 55% to 81%. His DCZT% was 30% or lower in four of the seven games tracked. He just knows how to move pucks up the ice with control, and prevent opponents from gaining zone transitions. An 81% pace all year would’ve put him well ahead of all other defenders I’ve tracked this year, including Jamie Drysdale. Much of this is drawn back to his mobility, but the question will be how his game translates as he ages and how valuable this talent profile actually is in the NHL relative to other players in this range this season.

Move Pass 1

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/MovePass.mp4

Move Pass 2

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/MovePass-2.mp4

Bad Move

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/BadMove.mp4

Get

This is what makes Sanderson so desirable to so many. It’s rare to find defenders at his age with his ability to be so tight to forecheckers in the NZ, anticipate their routes, and have the feet to shadow them where he wants them to go. My mantra of “the best defenders should never play in the DZ” reminds me that Sanderson is a player I needed to check myself on. He fits that perfectly. A DCZT% of 34% is a great measure, even the one game I tracked against his future team at North Dakota was well over double that. Along the defensive blueline alone, he broke up 70% of transitions across my sample. If your team is losing control of the puck 70% of the time when targeting Sanderson, you may want to rethink your strategy.

He does jump into the OZ, which can burn him from time to time, and he can be a bit too passive waiting to choose his time to attack a breakout, but more often than not, these things tended to work out, and that lead to the 4th lowest rate of dangerous shot attempts against of sampled defenders. He effectively positions himself to cut off both rushes down the middle, or down his wing, and doesn’t hesitate to step up and break up pass attempts.

He’s also displaying solid strength on his feet and is effective getting his body in between forecheckers and the puck. Sanderson is a rare talent away from the puck. There are defenders I’ve tracked who have similar DCZT%, and face fewer blueline transitions, but Sanderson’s skating, intelligence, and projectability when it comes to how those transitions are stopped feel much further along. The USHL is a physically tougher league on smaller ice than the Europeans with comparable DCZT%, and there is less time to close those gaps if they’re left open. He needs to get stronger and assert himself aggressively a bit more often, but he’s a defender who at worst will be an NHLer most never notice for all the right reasons.

Get 1

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Get.mp4

Get 2

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Get-2.mp4

Pass

Sanderson’s pass completion rate of 77% is 9th among sampled defenders and trails the three defenders ahead of him in pass attempts/60, but his combination of mobility with the puck, and intelligence spotting linemates are hallmarks of his. He goes into tough offensive situations in the NZ, finds linemates, often in traffic, and moves the puck effectively. He has moments where he almost feels like a centre, taking control of an offensive rush with pucks flowing through him, finishing with surprising creativity deep in the offensive zone. Sanderson often wastes no time making his decisions, but again, holding onto the puck and bringing attention without an elite high gear can get him in trouble in his own end. He’s a careful passer with plenty of attempts, and while a higher completion rate would be ideal, he’s tremendous at generating offensive transitions, can be surprisingly aggressive with his passing considering his point totals. His ability to juggle his feet, hands, and brain to move pucks effectively is really admirable and should help him considerably at the NHL level.

Shoot

Defenders and shooting are always tough to evaluate, but Sanderson is not afraid to shoot. He’s 4th of my sampled defenders with 16 shot attempts/60, and 3rd in dangerous attempts/60. Sanderson is 4th in individual dangerous shot attempt%. Far less aggressive than William Wallinder’s profile, but took dangerous shots far, far more often than Jamie Drysdale. His shot isn’t the hardest one I’ve ever seen, but his selection is intriguing. His ability to shoot pucks low combined with his pass intelligence, and ability to jump into rushes as a useful offensive piece could make him a dangerous offensive player overall.

Shot Move

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ShotMove.mp4

The Best Part

I haven’t seen a defender this year who is so adept at closing down the neutral zone and shutting opponents down. Even if he misses on a blueline, he’s constantly engaging along the boards breaking play up and turning it around effectively. He’s an extremely smart player away from the puck in transition that area of the game should be a hallmark going forward.

The Good Part

There is also not a defender I’ve tracked this year that fluidly moves through all three zones with the pace of play, finding linemates to move pucks, jumping into rushes, getting back to the blueline, closing gaps in the neutral zone. His ability to cover ice as efficiently as he does with the results he generates with and without the puck is hard to find at his age.

The Not-So Good Part

I constantly wonder if Sanderson is just an extremely good USHL defender in a weak USHL year on a shallow NTDP roster, or if he’s the next excellent defensive defender in the NHL. I felt his worst game I tracked was against North Dakota, but that’s a high-octane offense with some players five or more years older than Sanderson. I still felt a bit of “ok, but so what” about him. There are a lot of impressive tools, but nothing so spectacular that puts him in a top-10 for me. I don’t feel that he’s the best all-around skater on defense available, and his pass completion rate trails that of some others I’ve tracked. Is he going to be an NHL defender? Almost certainly. How much of an impact is he going to have on a game-by-game basis? I’m not sure.

Overall

In my eyes, Sanderson is the best transition defender going both ways available in the draft. His ability to manage gaps, patrol and control both the wings and the middle of the ice, and his talents with passing and carrying the puck offensively are likely what is making him so desirable. They’re understated parts of the game, but they’re very important to do well. It is also inevitable that he will be compared to Jamie Drysdale, so here are some analytical highlights comparing the two:

Sanderson controls the puck in offensive transitions 18% more often.
Sanderson shuts down defensive transitions 23% more often.
Sanderson bested Drysdale’s dangerous SAT% by 23%.
Sanderson took over 8x the dangerous shot attempts Drysdale did.
Sanderson took 27% more pass attempts and completed 30% more of them.
Sanderson generated 26% more controlled offensive zone transitions, and with an equal number of defensive transitions/60, he faced 25% fewer controlled transitions defensively.
Drysdale may have had 16% more of his pass attempts be dangerous, but per 60 minutes, Sanderson served 6% more of those attempts.

Sanderson did have the 3rd lowest TOI of sampled defensemen at 5v5, so maybe this is a result of a more limited sample, and I do have reservations about projecting both Sanderson long term as a more impactful defenseman than Drysdale, but the trends are very clear. The USHL may be full of penalties, but his results are excellent in very important areas of the game. Shutting down defensive transitions, and moving pucks offensively, all while chipping in offensively without being a defensive liability.

The concern to me is what value does this player add? Sanderson’s overall impact in transition should enable his team to make playing both offense and defense easier, but how much of an impact will it have, and what are you passing on if you’re taking Sanderson over say, an Alexander Holtz? Is a potential 30-40 goal scorer more important to you than a great USHL transition defender? To me, I don’t think so, but you need defenders like Sanderson.

He’s headed to North Dakota, who love to deploy defenders offensively, and if Sanderson can potentially learn to lean into his rush defender potential, he could become an excellent offensive defender, but I could also envision a world where he’s primarily focused on getting pucks out of the DZ and through the NZ at an extremely high level, leaving the flashy offense to the forwards. It’ll all come down to development and deployment, but he has enough talent to be one of a variety of defender classes.

NOTES

Data tracked includes controlled and uncontrolled zone entries and exits the player is involved in, as well as shot attempts, their location, the player's pass attempts, and the percentage of those pass attempts that are directed to high or medium danger areas. The grades referred to in the video are assigned with a number and a letter grade. The number from one through four indicates the general tier of talent, with one being highest, and the letter indicating the consistency around that tier of talent.

Overall Rankings Think - 1C, Move - 2A, Get - 1B, Pass - 1C, Shoot - 2A, Overall - 1C

Click here for all tracked data from every Scouching Report!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y6dAnYsYQg5f5Zrt0ilo9gR1hfFNIPXl3PuKpubFbrc/edit#gid=664929841

SCOUCHING #20: John-Jason Peterka – LW – EHC München – Video/Analytics Breakdown

Will Scouch — Fri, 19 Jun 2020 18:07:00 +0000

John-Jason Peterka - LW - EHC München - NHL CSS EU7

42GP - 7G+4A - 4.98% G% 7.83%INV - 6.43 NHLeScore

John Jason Peterka of Red Bull Munich during the CHL game between Djurgården and Red Bull Munich on December 3, 2019 in Stockholm.
Photo: Jesper Zerman / BILDBYRÅN /

I was extremely excited to see what I’ve begun to affectionately call the DEL Trio at the World Juniors and they certainly didn’t disappoint. It’s clear that Tim Stützle is a top prospect with excellent playmaking skill and skating ability, and I was pleasantly surprised with Lukas Reichel’s quiet effectiveness offensively. John-Jason Peterka caught my eye last year in the Czech junior league, but his production didn’t quite translate to the DEL in his first professional league. My experience tracking and analyzing him led me with a completely different impression than I expected going in, and he left me absolutely fascinated with what his projection to the NHL could be.

If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.

Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video

Think - 1C

It is immediately apparent that Peterka is a hard-working two-way player with excellent intelligence away from the puck. He can read and anticipate play well and is perfectly willing to get physical along the boards. He defends well positionally, getting his body between forecheckers and the puck, with enough explosivity to get moving at any time. Another indicator of his maturity is how unselfish he is with the puck in transition, making little plays that maintain possession using teammates effectively. Peterka can absolutely explode on the ice and constantly be on the go looking for loose pucks and open ice.

In offensive transition away from the puck, he is extremely smart with his routes and gap management from opposing defenders. This part of the game is something really special with Peterka and could make him a great potential scoring option in a rush offense. He’s an admirable player on and off the puck that will get plenty of leeway with any coach.

Overall, Peterka is a straightforward north-south player willing to play hard along the boards, but with a great ability to anticipate play in transition and away from the puck. I don’t believe he’ll have any problem translating to North American hockey, but the only thing that may hold him back is a bit too much simplicity to him. He’s a straight line hard worker who can get physical, cover ice well, get up the ice well, find open space in offensive rushes well, but he can be hasty when good opportunities present themselves, and he can chase play a bit too much, opening space for opponents.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Think-1.mp4

Think Move

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ThinkMove.mp4

Think Get Move

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ThinkGetMove.mp4

Move - 2A

While he may not be the most skilled player available, he’s one of the more explosive players in this year’s draft. Peterka is an exceptionally hard worker on his feet, able to quickly separate himself from opponents and create space to go with his no-nonsense positional game. There are times when he can lose control of the puck when push comes to shove, and his best talents were his straight-line explosiveness and motor, but his four-way mobility and dynamic ability on his feet seems a bit limited.

Funnily enough, Peterka was actually better than Stützle at generating controlled offensive transitions/60 by 50% across both bluelines. He maintained control over the puck in all offensive transitions 13% more often than Stützle. There were indications that his hands may be a bit of a step behind his feet sometimes, but this was more of an inconsistency, and usually occurred when under pressure. At the same time, there were nice flashes of skill even under pressure to create space and defuse pressure deep in the offensive end. Peterka is able to keep defenders on their heels with his skill and pure speed and can and does push deep into the offensive zone to create dangerous chances.

Overall, the only thing I can critique is the lack of dynamism. Seems to have one gear, but it’s a good gear and almost constantly evident. There’s good skill, but more development in that area could make him a dangerous player under high defensive pressure. A bit of time to train and build strength could turn him into an excellent power winger that could fit in any NHL franchise, but there are a lot of legitimately interesting routes his career could go with the talent he shows in this category.

Move Pass

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/MovePass.mp4

Get - 1C

Peterka’s overall motor makes him an excellent energy player, but he’s also no slouch with his stick. He immediately challenges opponents with the puck and doesn’t give them a chance to think. All over the ice, he shadows and sticks to opponents extremely well, and engages physically a ton to separate opponents from the puck. When he strikes, he strikes hard and often with plenty of power, which should translate well, even if his offensive upside doesn’t reach its potential. I get the feeling this is a player that will get lots of leeway with coaches in North America. His lack of dynamic ability on his feet can cause him to lose track of agile opponents, and he could be caught flat-footed defensively without moving his feet to cut down gaps quickly enough, but when he’s going, he goes.

Overall, Peterka isn’t much of a complex player away from the puck. He plays hard, he can hit, he can strike with his stick, and he can turn play around quickly. There’s a real meat-and-potatoes approach here that I always love to see. The NHL thrives on hard forechecks and minimizing decision making time all over the ice, and Peterka plays with a great motor that checks a lot of boxes away from the puck. There may be a level of inconsistency with his physical involvement and slow defensive reads, and the choice between keeping his feet moving for physical aggression, and using his stick can be incorrect at times, but his best tools are physical and with his feet. Relying on his physical play and speed more often could refine and focus his game to being a much more effective defensive player.

Get

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Get-1.mp4

Bad Get

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/BadGet-1.mp4

Pass - 1C

Of the three big DEL players, Peterka led in pass completion percentage, but was third in dangerous pass attempt percentage. He blew Lucas Reichel out of the water in attempted, dangerous and completed passes/60, but trailed Stützle. Peterka is a smart transitional player, but 17% dangerous passing for a player with such limited production indicates that better linemates and more ice time may unlock more potential for him. He’s clever under pressure, but an extremely creative and dynamic passing ability was hard to spot. There weren’t a ton of bad passing decisions, but he can spot teammates well in all zones.

Overall, he’s a reliable passer, rarely making poor decisions, and perfectly able to keep up and surpass his talented DEL cohort, even if he played the least. 11.02 dangerous passes/60 is an excellent measure in a men’s league, but I found this to be a tough area to dig into based on his linemates. That being said, completing more than ¾ of his passes, and continuing to refine his offensive game against men could improve his production.

Shoot

While Peterka takes “only” 64.5% of his shot attempts from dangerous areas, good for 3rd among the DEL trio, he lands 35% from high danger, over double Stutzle’s rate and barely trailing Lukas Reichel. On that note, he only generated dangerous shot attempts at 45% the rate of Reichel, and his Off.Threat metric was 3rd among the DEL trio. He did seem to have a great nose for open space away from the puck, and his ability to navigate under pressure and push towards the net helped generate danger. He uses his explosiveness to apply offensive pressure consistently and rarely gives up on plays if he loses control of the puck.

I am a bit unsure of his goal scoring potential, as I wasn’t blown away with his shooting ability at 5v5, but he’s good with his instincts away from the puck, and his skill and feet can take him a long way towards generating danger, which is a key ingredient for scoring goals. Overall, his shot is quick, but nothing spectacular, but he likely will score more off the rush, working hard to battle pucks to dangerous areas and cleaning up garbage around the net, especially if he gets stronger on his feet and even more resilient than he already is.

Shot Get

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ShotGet.mp4

The Best Part

John-Jason Peterka’s nonstop motor is really promising. He uses it to generate offensive transitions and stifle defensive ones extremely well. He plays physically with his speed, and if he can capture that more often, he could be a scary player to handle, especially away from the puck. There’s good separation skill to go with it, especially under pressure in flashes, but developing this further could make him a nightmare to stop with the puck. He can be a really an exciting player to watch when he gets moving. His explosivity and intensity allows him to close gaps and constantly apply pressure to opponents at all areas of the ice. At the very worst, you’re looking at a great energy winger, but there’s potential for more.

The Good Part

He seems to play the game simply in a very good way. He’s a straight-line player, he plays hard, and when away from the puck makes little cuts that make finding open space much easier. He can be a pain defensively down the middle, and refining that over time will help him develop into an even better power forward. If he spots a passing opportunity, he rarely avoids it. He’s unselfish and intelligent with really nice potential considering his age and career trajectory. You know what you’re getting with him almost every shift, and it’s a valuable piece of any line, even if he may not be a primary point producer in the NHL.

The Not-So Good Part

At times his game I felt his game was a bit too simple. Rounding out his mobility in all directions will help immensely, and if he can fill out his frame to be even stronger, even more resilient, and even more skilled with his hands, he could diversify what he’s capable of and unlock his potential that would go hand in hand with his overall approach to the game. He’s a player I believe is a bit easy to scout and counter right now, but he’s still a tough player to contain. If he can bring a more dynamic ability to control pace and manage his hands and feet a bit better in conjunction, he could be a terrific offensive talent.

Overall

It’s hard to find serious flaws in Peterka’s game. He’s a high percentile player in almost every metric I track that isn’t team based. When he was on the ice, he bled shot attempts against, but I can’t place too much blame on him considering how good his transitional, passing, and shooting data was. He’s quick in a straight line, he plays hard, he prevents breakouts at a rate comparable to Stützle, and he generated more offensive transitions than Stützle did. At the very least, Peterka should be an NHL player with great energy capabilities and could become a fan favorite for his quickness and ability to play physically. Further building his skill and strength, with complementary gains in his overall mobility could make Peterka a real scary two-way player who can chip in offensively. At his best, Peterka was a generator of dangerous offence and underrated defense in a men’s league coming out of the Czech junior league last year. He’s a promising high energy power forward that should be gone on the first day of the draft but would be an extremely easy high floor pick to make on day 2.

NOTES

Final Rankings: Think - 1C, Move - 2A, Get - 1C, Pass - 1C, Shoot - 2A, Overall - 1C

Click here for all tracked data from every Scouching Report!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y6dAnYsYQg5f5Zrt0ilo9gR1hfFNIPXl3PuKpubFbrc/edit#gid=664929841

Scouching #18: Jean-Luc Foudy – C/RW – Windsor Spitfires – Video/Analytics Breakdown

Will Scouch — Thu, 28 May 2020 21:17:09 +0000

Jean-Luc Foudy - C/RW - Windsor Spitfires - NHL CSS NA33

37GP - 17G+22A

Jean-Luc Foudy of the Windsor Spitfires. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

I say constantly that I work with data to guide me towards interesting case studies in junior hockey. There could be high pedigree players with poor results or low pedigree players with great results, which are the players I’m personally fascinated by. Jean-Luc Foudy was a particularly impressive player to me in the Hlinka tournament with his skating, but his results this year have left much to be desired. The question then becomes why? What is happening specifically that is causing the player to fall short of expectations, and is it something to be legitimately concerned about? I had to find out, and what I found was both bizarre and fascinating.

If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.

Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video

Think

Right from the start, it is blatantly obvious what kind of player Jean-Luc Foudy is. He’s a hyper-mobile, reliable centre who uses his feet to open space on the ice and command possession of the puck. While he can get physical in the defensive zone, it needed to be showcased more, especially if his future lies at centre. He floated in the defensive zone a bit more than I found effective and doesn’t seem extremely reliable in his own end when it comes to intercepting pucks in passing lanes. He supports teammates along the boards and can turn play around quickly, but often took far too long to make decisions, and even then, his decisions can seem haphazard and dangerous for the wrong reasons.

All this being said, with the puck, his game is extremely simple. Get the puck across bluelines with control, get to open space in the OZ, pass it to the front of the net. Repeat. There were real flashes of great adaptability to situations as presented, but he often put himself into situations where he never commits to a decision and loses control of the puck. Foudy is an unrefined player away from the puck, but admirably simple with it, almost frustratingly admirable. There is tons of patience and pressure adaptation in flashes, but his defensive positioning relying almost too much on his speed to close and open gaps constantly could burn him away from the puck. His tendency to hold onto pucks indefinitely got tiresome, but if he can refine it to make better reads quicker, or complete more conservative options if nothing presents itself could make him a significant possession weapon, especially in transition.

Think Pass

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ThinkPass-1.mp4

Move

The Think category may be inconsistent and questionable in the defensive end, but the Move category is a complete 180. Foudy is an absolutely majestic straight-line skater, just like his brother. He went blueline to blueline in 1.41 seconds. That is ridiculous. 65.7 controlled offensive zone transitions/60 and maintaining control 79% of the time at that speed is also remarkably good and puts him in the top-5 of all players I’ve tracked a decent sample of.

There’s good skill in tight, often emerging from pressure in the offensive zone using his speed and skill more often than you’d think for someone with the point totals Foudy landed. He’s highly dynamic with his speed and can be explosive on his edges to shake off pursuing defenders. He can drive wide drawing defenders away from centre ice to open up passing options offensively and can carve away from them to take wider routes and maintain possession. He is an absolute machine getting up the ice be it up the wings or up the middle and can leave opponents behind and keeps them on their heels. He can try to be too fancy with the puck far too much, however.

It is pretty apparent that Foudy was putting too much responsibility on his own stick in the offensive zone, which made him a target, and his skill and speed can only take him so far so many times. If he can learn to be more selective with when to make a simple play, or to build on his skill to navigate pressure more effectively, he could help create more production for himself. Foudy seemed to be a one-man show at times, which is fun to watch, but offensive chances died on his stick often, and learning to pick and choose his spots to move the puck could help unlock the production he was lacking.

Foudy has all the potential in the world to be a transition beast. When the puck is on his stick, he’ll get it into the offensive zone. It also wasn’t as though he was specifically focused on offensive bluelines. He had 33.5 controlled defensive exits/60, and 32.2 controlled offensive entries/60. He goes end to end a lot. He had one game with three controlled zone transitions in 10 minutes of ice time, but every other game averaged 15.5 per game, peaking with 22 controlled zone entries. For reference in my tracking, Rossi and Perfetti, likely top ten picks, peaked at 24. Foudy may be available well into the 2nd round. His decisions with the puck absolutely need work, and he could get carried away with it at times, but the raw tools are exceptional when put together most of the time.

Move

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Move-5.mp4

Bad Move

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/BadMove-1.mp4

Get

I don’t think you’re drafting Jean-Luc Foudy to be a tremendous player away from the puck, but his speed allows him to cover plenty of ice very quickly and play an energy role. He chases play a bit, but with his speed, he’s rarely out of position. He may rely on his feet a bit too much defensively, but when he chooses to step in, he can be a sneaky and effective turnover generator. If he isn’t moving his feet however, he can be highly ineffective.

He isn’t the biggest or most built centre out there, and he doesn’t physically engage in transition, largely leading to his 58.82% defensive controlled zone transition rate. If he’s going to be a centre, he’s going to need to be more willing to at least get in the way of play more effectively and manage net-front pressure better. He doesn’t need to crush opponents, but guys often seemed to bounce right off of him. At worst, as an energy line player down the road, there’s potential for him, especially if he gets stronger on his frame.

His mobility allows him to close gaps and use his stick to create pressure on forecheckers and utilizing that more effectively will help him get to a better defensive level. If he can use his body more in tandem with his speed, he could be an effective defensive player after some strength gains, but right now, he’s more of a speed-based defender with an offensive lean.

Get Move

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/GetMove-1.mp4

Bad Get

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/BadGet-2.mp4

Pass

I haven’t given anyone a 1A before, but if anyone deserves it, it’s Foudy. Nobody over a large sample has the pass completion percentage (76.2%) combined with dangerous pass attempt percentage (29.5%) in all my tracking, let alone combined with his ability to control offensive transitions. Foudy shows great ability to draw opponents all over the ice and open space elsewhere to thread passes all over the offensive zone. He spots teammates in transition well, is often unselfish, but can show too much patience at times and will lose possession too easily after a while. He does whatever he can to create chances for linemates, and often isn’t his fault they can’t capitalize on his passes to the slot.

It’s extremely simple with Foudy here. He’s creative with his passing all over the ice and can open up plenty of chances with his skill as well. You might argue that 1A passer indicates someone who is literally perfect in the passing area, but considering Foudy sent more dangerous passes to the slot as a percentage of his total attempts than anyone, and still managed to complete 76% of his passes is remarkable. 20+ dangerous pass attempts per 60 minutes at 5v5 is, to me, the analytical definition of a playmaker, and Foudy shows tremendous talent and promise here.

Pass

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Pass-5.mp4

Shoot

His passing game might be a solid 1A, but his shooting game is not. Foudy might be a guy that maybe scores 10 goals in an NHL season, but lands 40+ assists if we’re being reasonable. There were times where he’d have clear chances at a shot and choose to pass. In my opinion, this isn’t a horrible trait, especially considering his shortcomings with his shot quality. Data is out there that a shot assist increases goal scoring, and I don’t care how the puck goes in, just put the puck in the net, be it on your stick or someone you’re passing to.

44% of his shot attempts were dangerous, but his game thrives on playmaking and perimeter play, which to me isn’t a bad thing if he’s paired with potential goal scorers. Of all forwards with a decent sample, Foudy still sits fourth in offensive threat/60 (individual high and medium danger shot attempts plus dangerous pass attempts), but 80% of that metric consists of his dangerous passing. He wasn’t an awful shooter, but with his shot selection and his extreme tendency for playmaking, I don’t see this is as a significant part of his game down the road.

The Best Part

Foudy’s speed in transition and ability to control possession is overwhelming at times. He’s quick, explosive, takes risks and has the skill to maneuver around the ice extremely well. In one of his games, he registered a 42.9% offensive controlled zone transition rate, but two other games were between 70-73%, and the rest were all over 80% with a 100% mark early in the season against the Hamilton Bulldogs. He is a speedy machine when it comes to generating controlled possession moving up the ice. If it works out as best it potentially can, he could be an invaluable offensive NHLer.

The Good Part

His passing instincts and playmaking potential are a close second to his transition ability. Foudy is an extremely patient passer, to a fault at times, but not many players take as many dangerous pass attempts and complete as many passes as often as Foudy. 21.2 dangerous pass attempts/60 is the highest of any previously profiled player by 54%, and only one other player tracked in three or more games crosses 20. He needs to stop holding onto pucks and making himself a target so much and/or build a ton of strength on his frame to fight off opponents continuously. That being said, if 30% of your pass attempts are trying to get pucks to the front of the net, and you’re completing ¾ of your passes, you might end up with a good playmaker.

The Not-So Good Part

Foudy’s lack of strength feeds into a lack of defensive intensity. He relinquished a lot of controlled defensive zone entries and needs to be quicker on his feet in close quarters to maintain gaps and challenge forecheckers. His lack of strength also led to losses of possession offensively, and more time training and refining his stability and getting stronger could take him a long way.

Overall

Foudy’s game is simple. Get the puck up the ice with control and get it to the front of the net. He’s a bit of a perimeter playmaker, but a very good one at that, and if he can get stronger and more aggressive to cut into the slot, he could be an even more dangerous player. There are tons of risk though. He’s relatively small, he’s inconsistent defensively, and he’s highly focused on carrying pucks and waiting out defenses for too long at times.

The question this year is “where was the production”, and I’d be very curious to see Jean-Luc Foudy with another team. His linemates often felt more focused on playing a physical game and didn’t have the speed or skill to get in position and finish what Foudy was cooking up. At the same time, Foudy felt like he didn’t seem to have the confidence to push into more dangerous areas, and some of his dangerous pass attempts felt like “I just need to get it to the net”. This is fine, but what separates truly excellent playmakers is being able to spot when that pass has the best chance of hitting a target and taking that chance immediately.

He has patience, speed, skill and the raw data to back him up, he just needs the supporting cast and the refinements to make him truly dangerous. He may not reach his potential in the NHL long term, but if things break right, if you’re willing to nurture his strengths and be patient with his development, he could be an extremely valuable transition/playmaking forward, be it on the wings or down the middle.

NOTES

Final Ranking: Think - 2D, Move - 1B, Get - 2C, Pass - 1A, Shoot - 3B, Overall - 1F

Click here for all tracked data from every Scouching Report!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y6dAnYsYQg5f5Zrt0ilo9gR1hfFNIPXl3PuKpubFbrc/edit#gid=664929841

SCOUCHING #17: Marco Rossi – C – Ottawa 67s – Video/Analytics Breakdown

Will Scouch — Fri, 22 May 2020 19:56:33 +0000

Marco Rossi - C - Ottawa 67s - NHL CSS NA6

56GP - 39G+81A

Marco Rossi of the Ottawa 67's. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

So here we are. Marco Rossi, the somewhat diminutive Austrian who likely will be the face of Austrian hockey for the foreseeable future is finally draft eligible. I’ve had my eye on this player since his days of playing with Zurich before coming over to Ottawa in 2018. He is a player who would’ve been an extremely high draft pick in 2019 but fell short of eligibility by just over a week. Had he been drafted, his D+1 year could only be described as spectacular. With a pace of 145 points over a 68-game season, including a 98 assist pace, Rossi led an absolute powerhouse Ottawa 67s to the best record in the OHL, and the best points percentage by just under 10%. I absolutely had to take a look and I was absolutely not disappointed. The kid is good, so let’s find out why and how.

If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.

Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video

Think

Things start off very positively here. Rossi is a smart, refined, and fearless two-way centre who has all the potential to be an excellent centre at the NHL level, regardless of his size. There’s a real no-BS approach to the game, which is something I love to see. He isn’t the flashiest player with speed and skill because he doesn’t need to be. He has the capability of flashing great raw talent, but he only pulls out the tools he needs to do what needs to be done. This capability translates into a real feel for what needs to be done to get out of defensive zones, through the neutral zones, through defenders, and deep into the offensive zone. He constantly is willing to use teammates and move pucks with possession. A selfish player, he is not. Rossi evades pressure effectively and can skate his way out of pressure scenarios and look for better options.

Away from the puck, he supports and anticipates play extremely well, especially in the offensive zone and can be the first player to loose pucks often. On rushes, he is highly responsible defensively, perfectly able to tie players up in front and block passing lanes. On defensive cycles he can sneak up on forecheckers and strip them of pucks in multiple different ways, be it grinding play down with his body or using his stick to separate pucks and turn play up the ice. He isn’t a perfect player here though. I found that he could be caught a little too laid back defensively and not be as assertive as he can be, and at times be hasty to make decisions that leave teammates out to dry.

There were also some disciplinary issues and, in my tracking, some questionable decisions may have been evident that may lead to unnecessary penalties removing him from play. If he can sort out his discipline and stay focused during play more often, he could be a true two-way centre with a brilliant offensive mindset. He’s determined, he anticipates play well, adapts well as he faces pressure, and he knows what needs to be done to get the puck where it needs to be.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Think-2.mp4

Move

We’ll start with this: 82% of offensive transitions that Rossi was involved in were done with control, the best of anyone profiled, and trails only Brett Berard in all my tracking so far. He dethroned Marat Khusnutdinov’s rate of 53.3 controlled offensive transitions per 60 with 53.9. The guy just knows how to move pucks with control up the ice, whether it’s passing or carrying it; using skill, speed, or raw determination to do so. He’s excellent with his edgework and hands navigating around the ice, can play dynamically at high or low speeds, works hard on backchecks, and knows how to create space between himself and opponents very effectively.

There were times where he could get caught holding on to the puck too long, and there’s a bit of a lack of focus from time to time, especially away from the puck. He could track the puck a little too much and lose track of other forecheckers, or just coast a little bit too much and fall behind on rushes.

In terms of his raw speed, Rossi went blueline to blueline in 1.61 seconds, which tied Tim Stützle’s fastest time, but didn’t showcase his top gear a ton, preferring to play with more pace and rely on smarts, going back to his ability to pick tools from his toolbox as they are needed. Rossi appears to be highly in control of his skill, without constant flash, but plenty of purpose to his talent when he does showcase himself. He uses skill to simply place the puck where defenders and goalies are not. He’s resilient under pressure, can make plays and carry pucks at high and low speeds, and can keep defenders on their toes. If he can keep improving his acceleration, skill and how often he’s willing to use some explosive footwork defensively, he could be a truly special player everywhere on the ice.

Move Pass

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/MovePass-2.mp4

Move Shot

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/MoveShot-3.mp4

Get

It would be remiss to not mention that Rossie is not the biggest player out there, especially for a centre, but with his intelligence and ability to anticipate play, he’s able to stay responsible positionally away from the puck, track when he may be able to cause turnovers, and use his stick and willingness to engage physically to cause trouble for opponents. Again, he’s a player who just seems to know what needs to be done, and “gets it”. His hands, feet, body, speed and skill all work together intelligently to effectively get pucks back and turn play around quickly.

His controlled defensive zone transition rate was 48%, which is fine for a centre, but was involved in just 29 defensive transitions per 60. This seemed to be more because Ottawa didn’t let opponents have the puck a whole lot, but he did sometimes feel like a player who let play happen around him rather than chasing things down. This isn’t a bad thing considering his skillset and his role as a centre, just something to be aware of in terms of style of play. There are times where he can fall asleep at the wheel defensively and make weak attempts at breaking up play, but this goes back to his focus. Being more consistent in his spatial awareness will help refine his two-way game even more than it is.

Overall, Rossi is a highly intelligent and reliable player away from the puck. He works hard and he’s great with his body and stick to separate pucks and create rushes offensively. There may be some focus issues from time to time, and he can be a bit flat-footed once in a while, but there’s a great two-way player here to work with.

Get

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Get-6.mp4

Bad Get

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/BadGet-1.mp4

Pass

Completing 79% of your passes as a premier OHL centre is no small feat. Rossi had 76 5v5 pass attempts with 60.5 completed passes, and these metrics combined makes him the best forward profiled so far. Rossi could push to have more dangerous passes, but 9.15 per 60 isn’t poor, and had one game with seven dangerous attempts. In my view, it does feel like while he may not make a ton of these attempts, he makes them count, often hitting targets in dangerous areas. He’s a crisp, clean passer who looks for the right option often, and can be lethal around the net. He’s smart with utilizing teammates and can hit his targets often.

This is a player who yes, scored at a 47-goal pace in the OHL, but could’ve potentially hit 100 assists. The guy is an excellent passer, plain and simple. He shows exceptional patience and can thread dangerous passes with ease. While he can exhibit a bit too much patience and lose control of play, he attempts to make his opportunities count, rather than hopelessly shoving puck in front with nobody there to finish play off. It’s really hard to find a ton of flaws considering he’s passing the puck a ton, completing a ton of passes, and makes his dangerous attempts count, leading to a tremendous amount of assists.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Pass-4.mp4

Shoot

With 70% of his shots coming from danger areas, and 32.5% coming from high danger, Rossi has tremendous offensive potential to score goals on paper. His skill and attacking mentality gets him to the net and he can move pucks into even better scoring areas to open up as much of the net as possible. 12.21 high and medium danger attempts per 60 trails Cole Perfetti, Seth Jarvis and Brett Berard, but surpasses Quinton Byfield and even Alexis Lafreniere as of today. Only Seth Jarvis has a higher share of total team attempts from dangerous areas.

Rossi finds open space away from the puck effectively, but with the puck he’s more than able to cut into dangerous areas for scoring chances on his own. He’s dangerous all around offensively and absolutely deserved the goals he scored. Again, this is a player that could’ve gotten close to 50 goals had he played a full season, and he does it from dangerous areas often. While I’m a bit skeptical of just how good this area of the game will translate, he plays hard, attacks the net, and has great skill in tight to open up goaltenders and find easier ways to put the puck in the net.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Shot-4.mp4

The Best Part

If the puck is on his stick, he’s simply ridiculous. He can move it up the ice with control, be it with his own stick or passing it, he can make a play offensively cross ice, or passing into the crease with purpose, he can get to or find open space offensively to get himself into scoring position, and there’s a reason he was on pace for 145 points over a full OHL season. I love Joseph Gareffa as much as anyone, but without Rossi, I don’t imagine he and Austen Keating would’ve had seasons this good. Rossi’s talent pushing play with the puck on his stick is second to none as of today in this draft, and to me, that’s a pivotal part of the game that every NHL could use more of.

The Good Part

I find that Rossi is highly underrated away from the puck. He’s smart and careful with his defensive play, but sometimes a bit too passive and hesitant to play physical. He can use his edges to navigate away from pressure to look for open teammates, or he can push hard to get up the ice with control. He’s a true “postmodern” two-way centre with excellent offensive tools but will need some time to improve his footwork if his defensive potential is to be fully unlocked in the NHL.

The Not-So Good Part

There isn’t really not a whole lot here. Yes, he’s small, but I don’t think he has the same shortcomings a lot of smaller players have. A bit more agility and quicker feet could help. He seemed a bit heavy-footed at times and could get taken for a walk a little bit for someone who mainly relies on anticipation and intelligence. His discipline and consistency when it comes to engagement could be improved over time as well, but it didn’t often bleed into his ability to play selflessly and focus on pushing play positively. I wouldn’t expect Rossi to be a physical force in the NHL, but I certainly don’t believe that will hold him back as a potentially great NHL centre.

Overall

Put as simply as I can, the guy is just plain really good at hockey. He understands what needs to be done to get the puck up the ice and into the net far more often than not. He clearly isn’t a player that relies on his talent, but there’s plenty of skill and speed to go around if need be. He’s determined, often clearly working hard on the ice, and is extremely resilient with the puck. While he’s sneaky and intelligent defensively, he isn’t perfect. Nobody is, if I’m being honest, but Rossi does a lot of meaningful things in this sport very well and caps it off with being able to score and set up scoring plays with the best of them. If he can get a quicker first few steps and move his feet a little more effectively in close quarters, he could be a premier two-way player. He may be a little bit undersized, but I can’t see him not projecting as a centre, especially after a little bit of time in a good professional strength development training program. A motto of mine is and always will be “If you can play, you can play”, and Marco Rossi certainly can play this game at an extremely high level.

NOTES

Final Ranking: Think - 1B, Move - 1C, Get - 1B, Pass - 1B, Shoot - 1C, Overall - 1B

Click here for all tracked data from every Scouching Report!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y6dAnYsYQg5f5Zrt0ilo9gR1hfFNIPXl3PuKpubFbrc/edit#gid=664929841

SCOUCHING #10: Tim Stützle – W – Adler Mannheim – Video/Analytics Breakdown

Will Scouch — Mon, 27 Apr 2020 17:00:59 +0000

Tim Stützle - W - Adler Mannheim - NHL CSS EU1

41GP - 7G+27A

Tim Stützle of Adler Mannheim during the CHL ice hockey game between Djurgården and Adler Mannheim on September 8, 2019 in Stockholm.
Photo: Simon Hastegård / Bildbyrån /

Somewhere deep in my memory, I can recall Brian Burke mentioning that Germany was laying the groundwork for an interesting future in hockey. Tim Stützle may not be a direct result of those words, but the last two drafts have showcased some great talent coming out of the Deutsch Eishockey Liga, and Stützle certainly headlines all of them. He was ranked #1 in Europe by NHL Central Scouting, with some even putting him as high as 2nd overall. I may not be in that camp with him, but he isn’t far off. I greatly enjoyed my tracking of him and he is at the very least a lock for my Top 5, so let’s see just how good he was, and how could he could be down the road.

If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.

Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video

Think

Stützle can certainly anticipate play well at all areas of the ice and has plenty of mobility to support teammates and close gaps in transition. He’s unselfish with the puck and has the potential to be an elite playmaker. He can sometimes not be the calmest player with the puck, and can overplay pucks from time to time, but always seems to remain in control and create space or find passing options after getting play under his control. He’s an aggressive forechecker as well, willing to apply pressure deep in the offensive zone. In defensive transitions, he can float a bit between the wings, and open up too much space for transitions, which might be something he’ll need to iron out when the ice shrinks and opponents get stronger. Away from the puck in the offensive zone, he can sometimes avoid parking himself in high danger areas and rather waits near the side of the net for rebounds and can get muscled out of dangerous areas from time to time. Stützle can try to do too much on his own or be too patient with the puck if he’s stopped up at the blueline looking for options as well, but these things are all nitpicky and can be worked with over time. I’m unsure he projects as a centre, but very easily could project as an elite offensive winger. A 2B here might be a bit harsh, but he’s a rock-solid player with and without the puck around the ice. Can seem to jump the gun a little too much, overanticipate play, or get crossed up with teammates, but there isn’t a ton to really not like about his overall game, and he was pretty consistent. We’re talking about a Top-5 pick, and I just get the feeling he’s a relatively unrefined thinker in some areas relative to the other players in this range.

Think

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Think-3.mp4

Think Pass

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/ThinkPass.mp4

Move

Simply put, he’s a magical skater with great skill to go with it. He can attack the ice with the puck on his stick and has tons of determination to keep his feet moving at all times. Stützle is quick, agile, maneuverable, comfortable all over the ice, he’s just an excellent skater all around with the right amount of skill. Covers a lot of ice in a game and can go wing to wing to cut off breakouts, which can open too much ice sometimes, but he’s got the ability to break transitions up well with his mobility. He can be a bit weak along the boards and has been rubbed off the puck, but his results are excellent, especially in the offensive zone. Stützle isn’t the most efficient transition player I’ve tracked, but he’s no slouch. 61% controlled offensive transition percentage is very good in a men’s league, but only Noel Gunler has fewer controlled offensive transitions per 60 minutes (33.33 vs. 31.7). He’s a wonderful skater around the ice with great skill to go with it, and there should be no issue for Stützle to translate to the NHL.

Move Pass

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/MovePass-1.mp4

Move Shot

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/MoveShot.mp4

Move Think

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/MoveThink.mp4

Get

This is another excellent part of the game for him. A 39.5% controlled defensive transition rate is the best of all players I’ve made videos on, beating Lucas Raymond’s 42%. He faced a comparable amount of defensive transitions as Lukas Reichel and stopped them 30% better. His mobility and skill with his stick allows him to cover tons of ice and challenge opponents and force turnovers. Stützle has tons of drive and determination to battle opponents for pucks as well. He can grind along the boards, but I don’t imagine this will be a strong part of the game for him. He can easily get away with a shortcoming, and he’s more likely to be a support option along the boards waiting to turn pucks up the ice and start breakouts on his own. He makes quick reads and can take advantage of turnovers to create offensive chances quickly with his skill, explosiveness and mobility. He’s very reliable without the puck to at least block passing lanes, play aggressively in the neutral zone, create turnovers and be responsible defensively. Stützle certainly not a floater waiting for breakouts to come to him, and his play away from the puck should be no problem down the road. He may not be perfect here, and playing in faster, more physical leagues might be a challenge at first, there’s a lot to like here.

Get Move

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/GetMove-1.mp4

Get Move Shot

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/GetMoveShot.mp4

Pass

Stützle is exceptionally dangerous. Compared to fellow countryman Lukas Reichel’s dangerous pass attempt rate, he surpasses it by 85%. He makes the most pass attempts and completes the most passes of any prior profile outside of Marat Khusnutdinov. He’s a major passing option for Adler Mannheim, and his passing skill is already at a real high level. Stützle can use his speed and skill to constantly move around the offensive zone and look for passing options, be they dangerous or conservative. He’s a crisp breakout passer and uses his determination to create dangerous chances when least expected. At the very least, he should be a devastating A1 generator on the power play, with excellent passing skills at 5v5. He’s an excellent play facilitator that can use his skating and intensity to his advantage and constantly keep opponents on their toes. The guy could be a tremendous playmaker at the NHL level over time.

Pass

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Pass-1.mp4

Pass 2

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Pass2.mp4

Shoot

Stützle’s shot is another weapon in his arsenal with tons of potential. He has all the mobility to cut into the middle of the ice for shot attempts and got at least one attempt from medium danger every single game. He could do better to push even deeper offensively with 15% of his shot attempts coming from high danger, and two of the three coming in game #7 that I tracked, but he improved over the year here as well. He also took more shots as the year went on, which, when coupled with his passing skill, made him a significant offensive threat and all even strength goals for and against came in the final two games of tracking. He’s got a heck of a shot on its own, and if he can use his speed and skill to get to the front of the net more, he could be an even more devastating offensive player.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Shot-1.mp4

The Best Part

The combination of skill and passing is absolutely nasty. 13.3 dangerous passes per 60 is a remarkable number, with 5 attempts in each of his last two games, a rate of 25.1 per 60. His determination allows him to be dangerous for longer stretches, and his potential as an elite offensive playmaker is all there. There’s so much in the offensive zone that Stützle offers that can drive offense at any given time.

The Good Part

His play in transition shuts down breakouts more often than anyone so far. This was something I was not expecting at all when I started tracking Tim Stützle. While he could be a bit of an issue in his own end and overplaying pucks to get breakouts started, he’s still a great transition player who improved his controlled offensive transition rate over the year. This comes potentially at the cost of some controlled defensive zone transitions as those rates declined over the year as well, but over my sample, he still drove excellent results.

The Not-So Good Part

Strength is an issue from time to time as he can get bumped off pucks from time to time. He’s exceptionally quick, exceptionally skilled, and plays with tons of determination, but he can get bumped off pucks a bit and can buckle under pressure from time to time. That being said, there isn’t a ton of downside to him over large samples, but getting stronger on his feet will help him play through pressure and be better cutting down play in his own end. He can overcommit in his own end and get caught out of position, but his best assets are going to be offensive, and this area is a bit of a nitpick for me, but he’s a Top-5 pick and nitpicking could make a big impact on the long term trajectory of your draft pick.

Overall

I can’t help but evaluate Stützle next to Lucas Raymond. They’re interchangeable at the 4/5 slot for the 2020 Draft to me, and they’re fascinating cases early in this year’s draft. To me, there’s a level of patience and wisdom to Raymond’s game that makes him highly effective in a tougher league outside of offensive production, but the tools and offensive output of Stützle is equally appealing. Stützle did improve as the year went on, especially after the WJC with shot attempt shares and shot selections all improving significantly. The SHL seems to be a more aggressive, faster and physical league than the DEL, and Raymond got 77% of the ice time that Stützle got, and my gut tells me Raymond could easily put up results like Stützle had he played in the DEL with similar ice time. However, no matter which way you cut it, Stützle is most definitely a top-echelon prospect this year in at least an offensive sense. He’s underrated in transition with his mobility and intensity and has very few real weaknesses. If he can capture his skill at it’s best and push into dangerous areas with and without the puck better, he could be an astounding offensive weapon, but as of today, he’s an electrifying skilled winger along the perimeter who can cut into the faceoff circles for dangerous chances or be dangerous with his passing in any situation offensively. He can cover tons of ice, he can make a play, he can shoot it, he’s an all-around offensive weapon that could become a premier, top power play unit winger for any NHL team.

NOTES

Final Rankings Think - 2B, Move - 1B, Get - 1B, Pass - 1B, Shoot - 1C, Overall - 1C

Click here for all tracked data from every Scouching Report!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y6dAnYsYQg5f5Zrt0ilo9gR1hfFNIPXl3PuKpubFbrc/edit#gid=664929841

SCOUCHING #7: Alexander Holtz – RW – Djurgårdens IF – Video/Analytics Breakdown

Will Scouch — Tue, 14 Apr 2020 16:09:43 +0000

Alexander Holtz - RW - Djurgårdens IF - NHL CSS EU2

35GP - 9G+7A

Djurgården's Alexander Holtz during the ice hockey match in SHL between Djurgården and Leksand on November 28, 2019 in Stockholm.
Photo: Jesper Zerman / BILDBYRÅN /

In the National Hockey League, it is often said that scoring goals is the hardest thing to do. You win games by scoring more than your opponent, and goaltenders get more trained and skilled year over year. As the league trends further towards speed, skill and offence, players like Alexander Holtz are bound to catch everyone’s attention. Holtz made a name for himself in the hockey world after scoring 30 goals in 38 games against Under-20 competition in 2018-19. Holtz has cemented himself as not only an option in this year’s Top-10, but almost indisputably as the best goal scorer available after a very solid draft eligible year in the SHL. In my belief, there’s more to him than scoring goals, but a player free of shortcomings, he is not. I wanted to see what all the fuss was about, and what I found was fascinating to say the least.

If you haven’t read the background on my work and approach, please read the embedded article before continuing below.

Once you have read the article, or are familiar with Scouching, here is the full video

Think

Holtz is complex. There’s a really nice motor and he certainly isn’t a player likely to float in the neutral and offensive zone waiting for the puck to come to him. He works to get to loose pucks and shows plenty of intensity while on the ice. On the downside, he can often be a mess in his own end. He can cover a winger’s area of the defensive zone fine, but all too often I could notice him being too flat-footed, watching play go by without enough purpose to shut down offensive cycles. In my tracking, his shot attempts for and against per 60 5v5 minutes were the highest among all three top SHL prospects this year (Raymond and Gunler being the others). As a winger, your defensive responsibilities can be reasonably reduced, but all three of these players are likely to be wingers, and I found Holtz to be the biggest liability defensively, and it shows in his shot metrics. Overall, his SHL games played, he was a net negative offensive and defensive catalyst relative to Djurgårdens without him on the ice. Both Gunler and Raymond were positives in at least one of those categories. Back on the bright side, however, Holtz certainly shows an aggressive instinct and the explosivity to get there. With more training, experience, and refinements when it comes to reading offensive cycles, he could become at least competent defensively, which would help enable him to use his offensive talent more often.

Think

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Think-1.mp4

Bad Think

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/BadThink.mp4

Bad Think Bad Get

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/BadThinkBadGet.mp4

Move

Sometimes goal scorers can come away with the impression that they’re lazy, or slow, or not aggressive enough on their feet, but Holtz is not one of these players. Holtz was the fastest of the three SHL prospects from blueline to blueline at 1.66 seconds. His hands are good, but not as impressive as his pure speed, and he certainly brings that intensity every shift. He can get knocked off pucks from time to time and he still seems to lack a bit of confidence with the puck at times, but I think he has the hands and determination to sort out his shortcomings and improve over time. In transition, he moved pucks offensively with control 56.5% of the time, which is notable, but I believe that over time if his skills and confidence develop, he should be even better in this area. In his own end and along his defensive blueline he can either overcommit to his coverage or get caught flat-footed, resulting in more controlled defensive zone entries than I would like, but in the purest sense of this category, there’s a lot to like and a lot to build on moving forward. Even if Holtz’s defensive issues can’t get completely ironed out, all he needs to be is competent and his best assets can appear more often.

Move

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Move.mp4

Move Pass

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/MovePass.mp4

Get

This is another area of inconsistency. He’s good with his stick in the neutral zone, he’s got plenty of mobility to work with, and he has an ability to try to gain and maintain possession with his body and determination on his feet. Playing along the boards may need time to improve once he gets stronger on his feet. He was quite ineffective at preventing offensive zone exits, allowing 21.3 per 60 minutes. Raymond and Gunler in the same measure registered 12.4 and 10.8 respectively. The biggest issues are in his own end, however. He can misread offenses, chase play too much, and seem to be unable to keep up with agile transition play. Again, wingers can get away with more limited defensive responsibility, but Holtz managed to only have a 40.2% share of the shot attempts while on the ice, and I found him to be a factor in failing to prevent prolonged opposing offensive cycles. While he can be a step behind at times, he’s still young, an SHL rookie and has plenty of speed and the right mindset to improve where he’s currently lacking.

Get

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Get.mp4

Get Move

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/GetMove.mp4

Get Pass

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/GetPass.mp4

Pass

In my tracking, Holtz had the lowest dangerous passing percentage (18.4%), and often the lowest pass completion percentage of the SHL trio game-by-game. He did show a nice ability to work in the offensive end to generate chances. Whatever dangerous pass attempts he did have, he generated through hard work. He isn’t often setting up along the boards and waiting for play to develop, but that’s not really his brand of game. He’ll aggressively forecheck and use a scrum to get passes out in front most nights. Holtz had the fewest pass attempts (45.5), completed passes (28.4), and dangerous pass attempts (8) per 60 minutes at 5v5 of the SHL trio as well. Passing the puck isn’t necessarily a central part of his game. I also found that Holtz could jump to pass pucks too quickly rather than moving up the ice with control himself, and sometimes can hand pucks to opponents under pressure. Going back to his determination, Holtz did show a good willingness to at least try to move pucks to teammates using his reach and chipping pucks around the ice, and again, over time I imagine he becomes a more reliable player with his passing in transition.

Shoot

This is the part of the game everyone notices about Alexander Holtz. I’m not here to say they’re wrong, but there’s a lot more going on that needs to be examined. One metric encapsulates this: 83.3% of his shot attempts came from low danger areas. Over the seven games I tracked, he had one high danger attempt, and one medium danger attempt. 10/12 attempts came from areas where you’re usually unlikely to score. That being said, if there is a player I want taking wrist shots from literally everywhere, it’s Holtz. His release is exceptional. He’s unpredictable, quick, and a constant threat from anywhere. He could be a player that is frustrating for fans and coaches early in his career if he shows an unwillingness to push into at least medium danger areas, but that frustration gets mitigated if he’s scoring 30 goals every year. Ironically in my tracking, Djurgårdens scored twice at 5v5, Holtz had an assist on one and neither were goals. He took 8.98 low danger shot attempts per 60 minutes, which is significantly higher than Raymond and Gunler combined (7.15). Combining his high and medium danger shooting rates (1.78), he’s under half of Raymond’s rate, and 23% of Gunler’s rate. If you ask me, this trend is something that needs to change if he’s to reach his potential as a top-tier premier goal scorer in the NHL. It is unequivocal that he’s an excellent scorer, but with more strength, confidence and experience, I’m hopeful that Holtz can put himself in a better position to score at 5v5, especially on smaller ice.

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/ShotGF.mp4

The Best Part

Yes, the shot alone is great, but the best part that gives me the most hope about Alexander Holtz is his sense of determination and underrated mobility. He absolutely needs work in his own end, but he brings a number of talents to the table that could make him a much more successful player over time. He works hard in the offensive zone, he keeps his feet moving, doesn’t take shifts off, and moves pucks up the ice with control more often than not, which is notable for a young men’s league sniper. His controlled defensive transition rate improved as well, so there are signs that Holtz is beginning to use his skating more effectively.

The Good Part

The shot. It’s ludicrous. If there’s a guy you want shooting from anywhere, Holtz is your guy. There are players who can pull of wrist shots from anywhere on the ice and still score 30-40 goals a season. It isn’t impossible, but it’s rare. Holtz took 24.5% of his teams shot attempts with him on the ice, but of all of Djurgårdens shot attempts, just 4.1% were Holtz from high or medium danger areas. Raymond more than doubled that measure, and Gunler more than tripled it. While his shot shows supreme talent, his shot selection likely will need work to reach his potential. At the end of the day, you’re debating between what could be a 25-35 goal scorer at worst, and a 40-50 goal scorer at best if he’s able to be even more of a dangerous threat. At the very least, Holtz is a lethal power play option, but there’s a lot to work with.

The Not-So Good Part

Defensive coverage can be a real problem. Holtz has the mobility and mindset to get over his issues, but a 40% SAT%, and 38% when removing low danger chances is simply not good enough. After January, his ice time declined by 20% and three of his seven tracked games were 33% SAT% performances or worse. Djurgårdens scored two goals at 5v5 with Holtz on the ice but were scored on five times. A 28.6% GF% is not ideal, and all of these metrics were by far the worse of the SHL trio. Yes, wingers have less defensive responsibility and the rest of his team wasn’t a huge step up defensively, but I found Holtz to be enabling too much too often from opponents in his own end.

Overall

Holtz certainly shoots, skates, and thinks well enough to become a good asset for an NHL team. The profile and resume are really impressive, and he will at least become a power play threat at the next level. If there’s a single player in this draft I’d bet on to score with a wrist shot from the blueline, it’s Alexander Holtz. He’s riskier than I think most people think, I don’t believe this guy has Selke Trophy written all over him, and I don’t really believe he’s the most well rounded offensive threat in this range of the draft, but there’s a good profile to work with, and at the end of the day, goals are goals. It’s going to be interesting to see where his career goes. If he can get more confident with his speed and hands to push deeper offensively and get more dangerous shots in stride, he could be absolutely lethal. If you’re willing to live with his shortcomings and risk that his scoring abilities will overcome his poor defensive metrics, he could be a fantastic pickup if your system is full of talent in other areas of the game. A second line scoring winger you save for #1 power play time and you can shelter them defensively might be his trajectory, but with his mobility, determination and aggressiveness, he could become a premier top line offensive scoring threat on any team. The risk is there on paper and in person, but the potential value could make life a lot easier for any NHL team.

NOTES

Final Rating Think - 2D, Move - 1B, Get - 1D, Pass - 2B, Shoot - 1F, Overall - 1F

Click here for all tracked data from every Scouching Report!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y6dAnYsYQg5f5Zrt0ilo9gR1hfFNIPXl3PuKpubFbrc/edit#gid=664929841