Shea Weber – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – A Look Back at the 2020-21 Season

Scott Cullen — Thu, 20 May 2021 19:33:41 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, a look back at the 2021 season and some of the underlying and sometimes just odd numbers for players during the 56-game season.

#1 Boston Bruins left winger Brad Marchand finished third in scoring with 69 points. He was a long way from first but, following offseason sports hernia surgery, Marchand’s longest streak without registering a point was two games, which happened twice. Since 2016-2017, Marchand ranks third in the NHL with 426 points, behind the two players that he was behind in this year’s scoring race, the Edmonton Oilers duo of Connor McDavid (526) and Leon Draisaitl (469). (Yes, that means that McDavid has 100 points more than any non-teammate over the past five seasons.)

#2 Although he had to take a leave of absence from the New York Rangers during the season, left winger Artemi Panarin ended up with 58 points in 42 games this season. Over the past two seasons, his first two with the Blueshirts, Panarin is averaging 1.38 points per game, which ranks third behind Connor McDavid (1.68) and Leon Draisaitl (1.53).

DENVER, CO - FEBRUARY 22: Vegas Golden Knights right wing Mark Stone (61) skates during a game between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado on February 22, 2021. The Colorado Avalanche wore retro-themed uniforms with logos of the Quebec Nordiques. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

#3 Vegas Golden Knights captain Mark Stone tallied 61 points, the sixth time in the past seven seasons that he has scored at least 60 points, and it was not a standard path to get there. In a shortened season, Stone needed a career-high 1.11 points per game to cross that threshold and he did it with a career-low 1.78 shots on goal per game. He scored on a career-high 21.4% of his shots and had a career-high on-ice shooting percentage of 12.1%.

#4 One of the biggest bounce-back seasons was authored by Chicago Blackhawks winger Alex DeBrincat, who tallied 32 goals and 56 points in 52 games after scoring 18 goals and 45 points in 70 games in 2019-2020. Hockey can be fickle, though. Last season, DeBrincat had 2.96 shots on goal per game and it improved this season to 2.98 shots on goal per game. Okay, that minor nudge does not explain the increase in goal scoring. Last season, DeBrincat scored on 8.7% of his shots. This season, he scored on 20.6%. He also played almost three minutes more per game compared to last season but it’s worth noting that DeBrincat had a higher shot and expected goal rate in all situations in the 2019-2020 season than he did in 2021 but sometimes the puck won’t go in the net. Other times, a sniper like DeBrincat can’t miss.

#5 Minnesota Wild rookie sensations Kirill Kaprizov had an outstanding rookie season, but it was a tale of two rookie seasons in one. Coming out of a KHL season in which he tallied 62 points in 57 games, a standard NHL equivalency would have pegged Kaprizov for approximately 45 points in a 56-game season. He exceeded those numbers, finishing with 51 points (27 G, 24 A) in 55 games. The rookie was putting up points immediately but was not generating shots. In his first 17 NHL games, Kaprizov contributed 16 points and 28 shots on goal (1.65 shots per game). In the next 38 games, he scored 35 points, including 22 goals, and generated 129 shots on goal (3.39 per game), more than doubling his shot rate.

#6 32-year-old St. Louis Blues winger David Perron had the first point-per-game season of career, scoring 58 points in 56 games. He averaged 18:33 of ice time per game, the second highest per-game average of his career.

#7 Looking to re-establish his value after a down season in Toronto, Edmonton’s Tyson Barrie decided that signing in Edmonton would work for him, and he was right. Barrie paced all defensemen with 48 points. Keep in mind that Barrie is going to be an unrestricted free agent in the offseason and that Connor McDavid recorded a point on 34 of the 48 goals (70.8%) which Barrie had a point. In Barrie’s 2017-2018 season, when he tallied a career-high 57 points for Colorado, Nathan MacKinnon had a point on 30 of those 57 goals (52.6%).

#8 36-year-old Dallas Stars center Joe Pavelski had a bounce-back campaign after a tough start in Dallas in 2019-2020. He finished with 51 points (25 G, 26 A), scoring 13 of his 25 goals on the power play. Since 2013-2014, Pavelski has 25 goals scored via deflections. Winnipeg Jets captain Blake Wheeler has the second most goals on deflections in that time with 16.

#9 There were five defensemen that had at least 15 points this season that recorded more than half of their points on the power play. Florida’s Keith Yandle (66.7%), Arizona’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson (58.3%), Montreal’s Shea Weber (57.9%), Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman (53.3%), and Los Angeles’ Drew Doughty (52.9%).

#10 On the other end of the spectrum, there were 60 defensemen to put up at least 20 points this season. Those with the lowest percentage of power play points were Toronto’s Justin Holl (0.0%), Toronto’s Jake Muzzin (7.4%), Florida’s MacKenzie Weegar (8.3%), and Nashville’s Mattias Ekholm along with Minnesota’s Jonas Brodin (both 8.7%).

#11 Minnesota Wild left winger Marcus Foligno had a career season, scoring a career-high 26 points in 39 games. Foligno had zero power play points. The other top even-strength scorers without any power play points: Winnipeg’s Mason Appleton (24), Montreal’s Phillip Danault (23), as well as the Rangers’ Filip Chytil (22) and Alexis Lafreniere (21). Minnesota’s Jordan Greenway had 31 even-strength points with one power-play point and Vancouver rookie Nils Hoglander had 26 even-strength points with one power-play point.

#12 There were 389 forwards that played at least 300 5-on-5 minutes this season. The leaders in individual expected goals per 60 minutes were Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher (1.30), Toronto’s Auston Matthews (1.14), Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk (1.02), Minnesota’s Joel Eriksson Ek (1.02), the Islanders’ Anders Lee (1.01), and Carolina’s Nino Niederreiter (1.01). Familiar names for this category but it also shows the difference between an elite finisher like Matthews and others who generate the shots and chances but don’t come close to Matthews’ goal totals.

#13 The forwards with the lowest individual expected goals per 60 minutes were Columbus’ Patrik Laine (0.26), Minnesota’s Victor Rask (0.26), Toronto’s Joe Thornton (0.27), St. Louis’ Tyler Bozak (0.30), and Winnipeg’s Nate Thompson (0.30). Seeing Laine at the very bottom of the list shows just what a disaster this season was for him. A fresh start, with a new coach, can’t come soon enough.

#14 Surprisingly, the most productive player from that early-season trade was Jack Roslovic, who scored a career-high 34 points (12 G, 22 A) in 48 games for Columbus. His ice time went up a couple of minutes per game compared to the 2019-2020 season in Winnipeg. His shot rate (1.77 per game) was a bit of a concern, too, but that appears to be virtually a team-wide issue for the Blue Jackets.

#15 Arizona Coyotes right winger Phil Kessel finished with a flourish and ended up with 20 goals and 43 points; it was the 12^th time in the past 13 seasons that Kessel scored at least 20 goals. He scored on a career-high 17.4% of his shots but he did improve his shot rates as the season progressed. In his first 32 games, Kessel had 20 points and 54 shots on goal (1.69 shots per game) and then scored 23 points with 61 shots on goal (2.54 shots per game) in his last 24 games.

#16 Anaheim Ducks winger Rickard Rakell scored nine goals in 52 goals, finishing with a career-low 6.3% shooting percentage. Over the past three seasons, there are 120 forwards that have recorded at least 400 shots on goal. The forwards from that group with the lowest shooting percentage: Boston’s Taylor Hall (7.7%), Rakell (8.0%), Columbus’ Boone Jenner (8.2%), Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk (8.7%), Dallas’ Tyler Seguin (8.9%), and Arizona’s Clayton Keller (8.9%).

#17 The forwards from that group that have the highest shooting percentages: Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (20.1%), Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point (19.2%), Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos (18.2%), Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele (17.8%), and San Jose’s Tomas Hertl (17.3%).

#18 Florida Panthers left winger Jonathan Huberdeau scored 19 points in the last 13 games to finish the season with 61 points, good for 12^th in league scoring. In the past three seasons Huberdeau ranks seventh among all scorers with 231 points.

#19 Pittsburgh Penguins center Jared McCann rose to the occasion when Evgeni Malkin was injured. McCann returned to the lineup a few days after Malkin was hurt and from March 20 through the end of the regular season, McCann scored 22 points (9 G, 13 A) in 26 games, giving him 32 points in 43 games. Just something to consider if the Penguins consider moving Malkin in the offseason.

#20 Finally, the Detroit Red Wings’ leading scorer this season was defenseman Filip Hronek, who had a modest 26 points in 56 games. Even more remarkable is that 17 of his 26 points were second assists. He had 11 more secondary assists than any other Red Wings player.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

NORTH DIVISION PLAYOFF PREVIEW: Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs – Edmonton Oilers vs Winnipeg Jets – Long, Deep History between Canadian Teams

Jeff Veillette — Sun, 16 May 2021 19:57:19 +0000

The Stanley Cup playoffs are officially underway! Well, at least they are in the United States. In Canada, we’re still waiting for the closing act to finish – that is, the three makeup games between the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames, to secure draft lottery odds, fulfill TV deals, and deliver on the promise of a season without missed games.

With that in mind, Wednesday feels forever away. But once the final buzzer sounds on the North Division’s regular season in Calgary, we’ll almost immediately be jumping into two fantastic series featuring four compelling teams.

MONTREAL, QC - APRIL 12: Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitchell Marner (16) tracks the play during the Toronto Maple Leafs versus the Montreal Canadiens game on April 12, 2021, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

Toronto (1) vs. Montreal (4)

Maybe the single best byproduct of the divisional alignments, for a long-time fan of the sport, comes from this series. For the first time since 1978/79, the two oldest franchises in the league, hockey’s original rivalry, will turn into a playoff series. Be it league alignment or dissimilar trajectories, the two teams have repeatedly come close but not quite in bringing their magic to the post-season, but a new generation will now get to tell stories of their own.

At the start of the year, these two teams were the ones most frequently brought up as potential division leaders, though Toronto ended up pulling a whole 18 points ahead when all was said and done. The Habs did put up a pretty strong warning shot at the beginning of their season, opening the season 7-1-2 in their first 10 games, though they close it on a five-game losing streak, with just two regulation wins in their final 11 games and just five in their final 23.

None of those win/loss records matter in the post-season though, as a very similar Canadiens team showed in the bubble last year. After a similar run of two regulation wins in 14 games to close their regular season, Montreal stunned the hockey world by zooming past the Pittsburgh Penguins in the play-ins, on the back of three one-goal (excluding empty netters) victories in a best-of-five. This came largely on the back of Carey Price, who turned back the clock with a Game 4 shutout and a 0.947 save percentage on the series.

That’s one of the biggest factors the Canadiens are hoping will work for them – they have a tandem of goaltenders in Price and Jake Allen who have had extremely pedestrian, if not below average regular seasons, but have previously had stretches of greatness. Price did miss time down the stretch with a concussion, but Dominique Ducharme and his team hope he’ll be ready to go. Toronto’s situation in between the pipes is the exact opposite – Jack Campbell has had a dominant second half of the season since taking over for Frederik Andersen but is unproven in the NHL playoffs and doesn’t have a long track record of sustained performance. Rather than betting on a bounce-back, Toronto is betting on a lack of regression.

Up front, both teams play a high-possession game and enjoy putting pucks to the net. The difference in quality is stark, though – Toronto’s game breakers (Rocket Richard winner Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander, and even short-minute wizard Jason Spezza) are much more adept at not just moving the puck into the net-front but capitalizing on their opportunities. The Canadiens have Tyler Toffoli, arguably the offseason’s best free-agent acquisition, and his 28 goals to rely upon, but find themselves lacking up and down the lineup. Cole Caufield could be an injection of finishing talent for the team should they choose to use him, but early practice lines suggest that he might be a healthy scratch when Montreal’s core of injured players return.

Instead, it looks like the strategy for them will be to attempt to wear Toronto down. The Canadiens were the league’s most physical team this year, leading all clubs in hits, including 14 players who threw the body at least 70 times (Toronto, meanwhile, had two). Montreal out-hit Toronto in 8 of their 10 games against them, tying the 9^th and trailing by one in the 10^th, and they’ll be looking to employ similar results when the games are allowed to be even more physical.

It should be noted, though, that that more physical, defensive playstyle against the Leafs didn’t fare too well. Despite every attempt to suffocate them, the end result was a 7-3 record for Toronto in the season series, with none of Montreal’s wins coming by more than one non-empty net goal. The Leafs controlled the season series in just about every way – better finishing, better goaltending, more time with the puck, more shots in dangerous areas, and better special teams. So, while this stereotypically “playoff style” method of play could work in a small sample, it has yet to show its weight.

My Prediction: Toronto takes this series in five games. The competition in this one seems to rely too much on the underdog pulling the favourite down to its level, and while that’s not impossible, it will be very difficult with core players (Shea Weber, Philip Danault, Brendan Gallagher, and Carey Price, just to name a few) playing on half-injured bodies and young counter-attackers (Caufield, Jesperi Kotkaniemi) currently poised to sit in the press box. Toronto’s got some concerns in a cold powerplay, but comes into the playoffs with a deep, mostly healthy roster that should be able to keep their regular season momentum.

WINNIPEG, MB – April 17: Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) skates in on Winnipeg Jets defenseman Derek Forbort (24) during the regular season game between the Winnipeg Jets and the Edmonton Oilers on April 17, 2021 at the Bell MTS Place in Winnipeg MB. (Photo by Terrence Lee/Icon Sportswire)

Edmonton (2) vs Winnipeg (3)

Once again, we have a regional matchup with a lot of historical implications, though many come in another league and all come with a different organization operating under one of the names. But be it WHA or NHL, Jet-Coyotes or Thrasher-Jets, there has always been something about Edmonton and Winnipeg lining up for some post-season hockey. In fact, it seems to be the only path to success for these teams – while all versions of the Jets organization remain Stanley Cup-less, two of their three Avco Cups came through beating the Oilers. In Edmonton, all five of their Stanley Cups came through beating the original Jets along the way.

One thing that hasn’t changed along the way is their process of getting to this stage in the dance – offence pumped through star talent. For the Jets, it was once the Hot Line, followed by Dale Hawerchuk, Thomas Steen, Randy Carlyle, and their support core. For the Oilers, it was Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier, Jarri Kurri, and Paul Coffey, among others.

Today, the Jets rely on their quadrant of Mark Scheifele (team leader with 63 points), Kyle Connor (goal leader at 26), Nikolaj Ehlers, and captain Blake Wheeler to give them scoring punch across the lineup. In Edmonton, it’s the two highest scoring players in the league driving the bus – last year’s MVP in Leon Draisaitl, and this year’s eventual MVP in Connor McDavid. McDavid, undeniably the game’s best player today and looking eager to chase the all-time greats at the peaks of Mount Rushmore, blew all of our minds by scoring 105 points in 56 games this season, just five points fewer than Scheifele and Connor combined.

With that in mind, this series is very similar to the one out east. While Winnipeg does have a group of gamebreakers, they will be tested by nagging injuries for Ehlers and Wheeler, and it’s certainly not up to the level of what McDavid and Draisaitl can bring. Shutting those two down will be the modus operandi, and that’s something easier said than done. That’s especially the case for a Winnipeg team that struggles to limit shot quality against itself. McDavid in particular has had no issues slicing and dicing through them, out chancing every Jets opponent he’s faced this year, outscoring all of them, and outmatching all but Andrew Copp in expected goal matchups, and all but Mason Appleton and Adam Lowry in shot attempt matchups.

The lack of a high-end defenceman for Winnipeg makes this challenge even tougher. Neal Pionk and Dylan DeMelo have been fine value pieces for the team, but still struggle to hold off the most game breaking of talents. Josh Morrissey hasn’t quite been the star they’ve been hoping for him to be. After that, things thin out very even faster for the team, with Derek Forbort, Logan Stanley, and Jordie Benn being far from stalwarts.

In fairness, the same can be said for the Oilers, who can play physical and gritty but don’t exactly have a list of Norris candidates either. Tyson Barrie has had a great year offensively but isn’t the most reliable in the defensive zone. Similar can be said for Darnell Nurse, and while Ethan Bear is looking like a very intriguing option on their blue line, Dave Tippett has kept his minutes on the lower end.

Where this series could shift away from expectation is between the pipes. Connor Hellebucyk has put up a season that’s down from last season statistically, but still ranks him among the league’s higher end in save percentage (0.916), goals saved above average (10.8) and shutouts (4). He’s also proven very capable of managing a heavy workload over the past five years, appearing in nearly 80% of Winnipeg’s games (289 of 372), which should help him stay steady as the schedule pace tightens. On the other end, Mike Smith has turned back the clock with an even better season than Hellebucyk (0.923 SV%, 13.7 GSAA, 3 shutouts), but has been less consistent in recent years, has had less experience with a heavy workload both this year and in the past several seasons, and at 39 years old, you wonder at times if this miracle run might come to a head. Mikko Koskinen has had moments of quality but has struggled this season, so if Smith falters, I’m not sure Edmonton has a reliable safety valve.

My Prediction: This will also likely be a five-game series, maybe six, but likely five, and it will go in favour of the Edmonton Oilers. The McDavid factor is just too hard to ignore against a team that isn’t deep defensively – the playoffs are where you can leverage your game breakers and while better depth in the bottom 6/9 of the forward core might help the Jets a little, I don’t know if it will matter if 97 & 29 get to take up the majority of the minutes. Ehlers’ injury, even if he does come back, was a big blow to the team and if he’s any less than 100% they’ll be in real trouble. Hellebucyk is the player who has the most potential to disrupt the scale, but I just don’t know if I see it happening.

Oh. Canada: A Bubble Season Like No Other Comes to an End

Jeff Veillette — Fri, 14 May 2021 12:13:27 +0000

Welcome to the last Regular Season edition of “Oh, Canada!”. It’s been a heck of a nationally-bubbled year, but the finish line is upon us and we can finally get to talking about the Stanley Cup Playoffs. In about a week from now, that is. For now, many teams do their final laps, others celebrate the end of the road, and we’ll continue our focus on the stories throughout. Let’s begin this week’s journey!

Calgary Flames & Vancouver Canucks – The Purgatory Series

In a decision that has many confused, the NHL has decided that the North Division will start its playoffs a little bit later than the Central, East, and West. While the other three divisions wrapped up their regular seasons last night and the East will begin its playoffs tomorrow, the games rescheduled as a result of Vancouver’s outbreak in March will not just persist but hold the four playoff teams back.

Why, exactly? To be honest with you, that’s anybody’s guess. The last game involving a playoff team is tomorrow against the Oilers, leaving three days of space before Edmonton and Winnipeg can finally kick things off on Wednesday night, followed by Montreal and Toronto on Thursday. In between, the Canucks and Flames will face each other three times, mostly to determine draft lottery seeding, with a bit of pride and contract-year stat-padding mixed in.

As meaningless as these games ultimately are, I’m fine with them being played so long as the players, particularly the recovering Canucks, are happy with them. For the rest of the division to have to wait, though, seems unnecessary. Some may call it the classy or sportsmanlike thing to do, but no such restriction is being placed on the other three divisions, who will be well ahead and will likely gain the rest advantage by the time the third-round hits. Not to mention, this forces a back-to-back in Games 3 & 4 of both series – a major disruption of playoff flow, particularly in net.

In the meantime, we did get a taste of how this three-game victory lap would go last night. In this one, the Flames took home a commanding 4-1 victory, matching Matthew Highmore’s first goal as a Canuck with a quadrant of unanswered tallies.

TORONTO, ON - MARCH 29: Toronto Maple Leafs Center Auston Matthews (34) and Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) react during the second period of the NHL regular season game between the Edmonton Oilers and the Toronto Maple Leafs on March 29, 2021, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

Edmonton Oilers & Toronto Maple Leafs – Generational Greatness

This weekend, the Oilers and Maple Leafs will play their last respective games of the regular season – Toronto tonight against Winnipeg, Edmonton tomorrow against Vancouver. Their seeds are already settled (Toronto in first, Edmonton in second), so there isn’t really a lot to play for. One thing, should the two dress, might be the finishing touches on Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews’ historic seasons.

McDavid, of course, has the magic number that few thought would be possible this year, even in the most generous of projections. Last Saturday, McDavid ripped the band-aid off the century watch, putting up four points against Vancouver to get to 100 on the season, in just 53 games. This is the fastest that any player has accomplished the feat since Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr in 1995/96. Using Hockey Reference’s era-adjustment formula, which normalizes totals based on a given year’s league-wide scoring rate, McDavid has had the second most productive season in NHL history, and the most productive of the modern era – even more dominant on a league wide scale than any of Wayne Gretzky’s 200+ point seasons. His totals normalize to 171 points in 82 games at a six-goals-per-game league-wide rate. Howie Morenz’ 1927/28 season is the only one that exceeds it, at 190 adjusted points, with the caveat that early seasons tend to benefit from assist corrections.

On the other end, you have Auston Matthews, who trails McDavid in the point department but is the far and away league leader in goals, having put up his 41^st of the year against the Senators on Wednesday. This is especially impressive considering his four games missed to a wrist injury, and the month or so slump that padded that absence. Matthews started the year with 18 goals in his first 18 games and comes into the season finale with 20 in his last 21. Era adjustments for him place him at 67 goals, tied for the tenth-highest total in history and eighth highest of the modern era. Given the games missed and games played hurt, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that a full and healthy 56-game run would have pushed him even further up the list, with Alex Ovechkin’s 65 goal (72 adjusted) season in 2008 and Brett Hull’s 86 goal (78 adjusted) year in 1991, which top the list.

There will be no shortage of discussion in the coming weeks, months, maybe even years about how much of an impact the season’s format had on the results for these two players. Some of it will have merit, a lot of it won’t, and we probably won’t have a firm conclusion. But at the end of the day, this year happened, and these two dominated it in a way we haven’t seen in decades, and that deserves appreciation.

Montreal Canadiens – Rest Up, Bless Up

If there is a team that benefits the most from the North Division pause before playoffs, it is undoubtedly the Montreal Canadiens. On Tuesday, Habs bench boss Dominque Ducharme suggested that he is “not 100% sure, but close to it” that he’ll be getting back Carey Price, Shea Weber, Brendan Gallagher, and Phillip Danault ahead of the playoffs.

To say that’s a re-injection of talent would be an understatement. Price stands atop of the list in terms of importance – while Jake Allen has been the better of their goaltending tandem in regular season action this season, the 33-year-old starter remains the face of the franchise and the magnet of discussion, particularly given his strong playoff performances in the past. Price last played on April 19^th, in a game against Edmonton where he suffered a concussion and returned to practice this week.

The others are no slouches, either. Weber is the team’s captain and most relied upon defenceman and would be drawing in for his first game since April 28^th, in which he suffered an upper-body injury against Toronto. Gallagher is aiming to return from a broken thumb that he suffered on April 5^th, and Danault is returning from an injury that started nagging him early last week but has kept him out since midway through last Thursday’s game against the Maple Leafs.

In other words, the Canadiens stand to add a starting goaltender, first pairing defenceman, and two thirds of their typical top two-way line before Game 1 hits next Thursday. There’s also the possibility of Jonathan Drouin returning from his personal leave, though the timeline there remains muddy and mostly unknown. Either way, it’ll be a team entering the playoffs much strong than how they exited the regular season.

Ottawa Senators – First Past the Post

As the rest of the pack plays out the remainder of their games or begins preparing for the post-season, the Senators became the first team in the division to close out their year on Wednesday night, walking things off with a 4-3 overtime victory against the rival Maple Leafs.

All things considered; the end of the season was very kind to the club. After shedding as many veterans as possible for assets at the trade deadline, the Senators closed out the year with a 9-3-1 record the rest of the way. This allowed the team to finish the year with points in half of their games, and while their 23-28-5 record wasn’t particularly close to playoff quality, it was far from the abysmal effort that many had the team projected for at the beginning of the season. One could even argue that had they gotten better than 0.900 goaltending from either of their two most regularly used goaltenders (Matt Murray, 0.893 and Macus Hogberg, 0.876), there could even be a respectable close out.

What the Senators are likely most excited about is the emergence of their young talent. While none of the core is at the stardom stage just yet, players like Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris, and Drake Batherson seem to be knocking on the door of bright futures. Erik Brannstrom, Stane Pinto, and Alex Formenton all had promising tastes of the show, as did Filip Gustavsson between the pipes.

Does this signal an immediate run next year? That seems unlikely, but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel here.

Winnipeg Jets – Cole Canada

For our last update, we’ll veer a little bit across the border. All the way to Latvia, in fact! That’s where this year’s Men’s World Championship is being hosted, and due to the pushed back NHL schedule and the general hesitance to travel far from home, there are a few more openings than usual for Team Canada.

While the Jets’ core players will be focusing on their opening round matchup against the Oilers, an opportunity has arisen through this for one of their top prospects in Cole Perfetti. The 19-year-old, picked 10^th overall in last year’s draft, will represent Canada for the second time this season, having previously played seven games in Red and White with the silver medallist World Junior team in the Alberta bubble.

Perfetti has been a case of a player who has arguably benefitted from this year’s awkward schedule. Due to the OHL being out of commission, an opportunity arose for Perfetti to skate past the CHL-AHL transfer agreement and play professional hockey with the Manitoba Moose this year, leading to him suiting up and putting up a very respectable 26 points in 32 AHL games, good for second on the Jets affiliate in scoring.

Another opportunity with Canada will give him even more experience playing against veteran players, something that will prove value in his transition to the NHL. Whether that comes next year or even further down the line remains to be seen, but he’s appeared to have made the most out of these unique opportunities. Time will tell how much benefit the experience gives him.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Hall delivering, Benn and Gurianov Stepping up, Barzal, Tkachuk and Kardi fading down stretch plus more ..

Scott Cullen — Wed, 28 Apr 2021 19:50:54 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, the Boston Bruins got just what they needed with the acquisition of Taylor Hall. Jamie Benn and Denis Gurianov are stepping up for the Stars while Mathew Barzal, Matthew Tkachuk and Nazem Kadri are fading down the stretch.

#1 In one of the more predictable outcomes of the trade deadline, Bruins center David Krejci is thriving with Taylor Hall on his wing, putting up nine points (5 G, 4 A) in nine games since the Bruins acquired the 2017-2018 Hart Trophy winner. Krejci had scored two goals in 35 games before the trade.

BOSTON, MA - APRIL 13: Boston Bruins left wing Taylor Hall (11) takes a shot off the face off during a game between the Boston Bruins and the Buffalo Sabres on April 13, 2021, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

#2 The move has been good for Taylor Hall, too. Sure, he has seven points (4 G, 3 A) in nine games with Boston, but Hall’s underlying numbers have exploded. In his first nine games with Boston, the Bruins are generating shot attempts, shots, and expected goals at least 25% higher than when Hall was on the ice with the Buffalo Sabres. Playing on a dominant Bruins team works in Hall’s favor, too, as he is generating 3.33 shots per game in Boston, compared to 2.38 per game in Buffalo, and this despite Hall’s average time on ice dropping from 18:41 per game in Buffalo to 15:57 per game in Boston.

#3 Dallas Stars forward Jamie Benn has been making a difference down the stretch and it appears as though working in the middle of the ice is bringing out his best. There have been 19 games this season, including each of his past 12 games, in which Benn has taken at least 10 draws and in those 19 games, Benn has produced 18 points (7 G, 11 A). He has 13 points (4 G, 9 A) in the 26 games in which he takes fewer than 10 faceoffs.

#4 Islanders center Mathew Barzal is slumping late in the season. He has no goals and two assists with 11 shots on goal in seven games since the trade deadline and the Islanders have earned one regulation win in those seven games. That’s not great, obviously, but his schedule does get easier. In the past seven games, three were against the Capitals and two against the Bruins. The Islanders’ next six games include a pair against the Rangers, a couple at Buffalo, and two against New Jersey so there should be opportunities for Barzal to snap out of this untimely slump.

#5 As the Calgary Flames try to remain in the hunt for the final playoff spot in the North Division, left winger Matthew Tkachuk has no goals and three assists in the past 10 games. He has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in 22 games since Darryl Sutter took over behind the Flames bench, averaging 16.33 time on ice per game under Sutter after playing 19:35 per game before the coaching change.

#6 There is good news in Calgary, though. Johnny Gaudreau had difficulty getting going when Sutter took over, managing four points and 25 shots on goal in 14 games. More recently, though, Gaudreau has produced 10 points (4 G, 6 A) and 15 shots on goal in the past eight games.

#7 While the Buffalo Sabres have endured a miserable season, Sam Reinhart has been a leader for them late in the season. In nine games since the trade deadline, he has produced 10 points (8 G, 2 A) with 30 shots on goal.

#8 As the Dallas Stars try to push for a playoff spot, they have been getting contributions from a bunch of players. Denis Gurianov led the Stars with 20 goals last season but went through a stretch in the middle of this season in which he scored two goals in 33 games. He has emerged from that slump with eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 23 shots on goal in the past eight games.

#9 It was something of a surprise when Mikael Granlund re-signed with the Nashville Predators in the offseason because he had not been very productive in his time there, producing 35 points in 79 games coming into the 2021 season. Granlund had his own midseason slump but has been a valuable contributor to Nashville’s playoff push, scoring 14 points (8 G, 6 A) in his past 19 games.

#10 The St. Louis Blues made veteran winger Mike Hoffman a healthy scratch late last month after he had managed two points (1 G, 1 A) with 17 shots on goal in the previous 10 games. With the Blues getting healthier, they had more forward options and if Hoffman isn’t producing offensively, his value is limited. Since that reset, Hoffman has nine points (6 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal in nine games, despite averaging a modest 13:57 of ice time per game.

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 24: New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes (86) shoots the puck during the first period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New Jersey Devils on April 24, 2021, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

#11 Shots are a foundational aspect when it comes to fantasy hockey value. Both as the source of goals scored but also because those shots count as their own category in most cases. In the past month there are 14 players that are generating at least 3.50 shots per game and there are a bunch of familiar names in that group – Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Alex Ovechkin etc. – but there are some surprises, too. Maybe the biggest surprise in that group is New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes, who is averaging 3.50 shots per game in the past month and his point production has picked up, too. Hughes has 10 points (4 G, 6 A) in the past 12 games, despite playing for a Devils squad that snapped a 10-game winless slide with Tuesday’s win against Philadelphia.

#12 There are 121 defensemen that have played at least 750 all-situations minutes this season. Of the 121, the top five in shots plus blocked shots per 60 minutes are: Alec Martinez (12.60), Alexander Edler (12.16), Jakob Chychrun (11.88), Alex Pietrangelo (11.87), and Dougie Hamilton (11.64).

At the other end of the spectrum: Cam Fowler (5.77), John Marino (5.94), Marc Staal (6.06), Brenden Dillon (6.21), and Nick Leddy (6.31).

Considering that Martinez also ranks 24^th among defensemen with 26 points (7 G, 19 A) in 46 games, he has been shockingly valuable – like Top 10 on defense – for fantasy purposes.

#13 When the Vegas Golden Knights put Chandler Stephenson in the center spot on their top line, between Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, it seemed that he might just be keeping the spot warm for, say, Cody Glass, a high draft pick with the offensive potential to be a No. 1 center. Glass has had a few opportunities in that role but not nearly enough to supplant Stephenson, who has nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 22 shots on goal in the past nine games, giving him 29 points in 42 games this season.

#14 For the first half of the season Jeff Petry was one of the top fantasy defensemen, scoring 27 points (11 G, 16 A) in 30 games but his pace has slowed down, with no goals and six assists in 17 games since. That’s really not a surprise, since Petry’s inflated percentages were unlikely to last all season. He is still among the top ten defensemen overall, but regression has come for the Habs blueliner.

#15 The story is even worse for Montreal’s Shea Weber, who has two points (1 G, 1 A) in his past 13 games, leaving him with 19 points in 47 games, his lowest per-game scoring rate since 2007-2008. Weber is famous for his devastating slapshot but he is not getting as many pucks to the net anymore either. Weber is averaging 2.13 shots per game this season. after three straight seasons with at least 2.85 shots per game, and it is his lowest per-game shot rate since 2006-2007.

#16 Around St. Patrick’s Day is when the Colorado Avalanche really started to hit their stride and the Avs have scored 3.98 goals per 60 minutes in all situations since then. Their top line is scoring a ton and a lot of complementary players have contributed to that prolific stretch. One who has not contributed nearly as much as might be expected is center Nazem Kadri who has four points (1 G, 3 A) in those 19 games, and this is despite Kadri recording 58 shots on goal.

#17 There are 27 forwards that have recorded at least 100 hits this season and none of them have as many points as Carolina Hurricanes center Jordan Staal, who has 37 points (16 G, 21 A). The next highest scoring forwards with at least 100 hits are Andrei Svechnikov (36), Brady Tkachuk (32), Matthew Tkachuk (31), and Chris Kreider (30).

#18 Vegas goaltender Robin Lehner has been the top fantasy goalie over the past month, posting a .941 save percentage on his way to a 7-0-1 record in eight starts. Injuries have cut into Lehner’s season, but he has just one regulation loss in 15 starts all season.

#19 The next most valuable goaltenders in the past month (minimum 5 GP): Boston’s Jeremy Swayman and Tuukka Rask are at two and three, respectively, then Carolina’s Alex Nedeljkovic, Vancouver’s Braden Holtby, and Detroit’s Thomas Greiss. Goaltenders are voodoo.

#20 The least valuable goaltenders in the past month (minimum 5 GP): Columbus’ Joonas Korpisalo, New Jersey’s Mackenzie Blackwood, Toronto’s David Rittich, Detroit’s Jonathan Bernier, and Chicago’s Kevin Lankinen. This end of the spectrum is not as surprising, though Lankinen had a pretty good run when he was first called up to Chicago early in the season.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS 4/1/21 – Ekblad, Hintz, Laine, Gostisbehere, McCann, Hoffman, Robertson and more ..

Scott Cullen — Thu, 01 Apr 2021 14:18:37 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, a look at the Panthers in the wake of Aaron Ekblad’s injury; Roope Hintz, Adam Fox, Shayne Gostisbehere, Patrik Laine, Mike Hoffman, Jason Robertson and more.

#1 The broken leg suffered by Florida Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad is a heavy loss for a playoff team that was getting solid play at 5-on-5, with the lowest shots against rates (45.8 CA/60) of his career, but he was really making a difference on the power play, where he had tied his career-high with six goals and was two points away from his career-high of 13 power play points, set during his rookie season in 2014-2015.

#2 The Panthers power play was one of the rare first units that was still running with two defensemen, Ekblad and Keith Yandle. Now that Patric Hornqvist is also out, after getting crushed by Chicago defenseman Nikita Zadorov, and Aleksander Barkov remains out with a lower-body injury, the Panthers have a revamped power play that still includes Keith Yandle and Jonathan Huberdeau but has roles for Carter Verhaeghe, Frank Vatrano, and Alexander Wennberg. Even Brett Connolly and Owen Tippett saw some time with that first unit.

#3 If there is a player who will get tested in Ekblad’s absence, it may be MacKenzie Weegar, who has had stellar defensive metrics in the past two seasons, most of which he has spent playing alongside Ekblad. Since the start of last season, that pairing has been on the ice for more than 54% of shot attempts, more than 55% of expected goals, and 58% of goals during 5-on-5 play. This while starting more shifts in the defensive zone and more frequently facing the opposition’s top forwards.

#4 Dallas Stars center Roope Hintz has taken a step forward this season though each step forward seems to come with at least a shuffle back while Hintz does tend to miss games with injuries. He has recorded points in nine of his past 10 games, scoring 13 points (7 G, 6 A) while launching 29 shots on goal in that time. Hintz has played 23 of 33 games this season and that is really the only issue to diminish his accomplishments. If he had played more games, his production would be recognized far and wide. Hintz has scored 1.44 goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play this season which ranks 11^th among 380 forwards to play at least 200 5-on-5 minutes.

#5 Lest you think that Hintz is only a dynamo during 5-on-5 play, Hintz is also the points/60 leader during 5-on-4 situations this season, too, with 11.26 points/60. Martin Necas (10.31), Eeli Tolvanen (10.01), Dominik Kubalik (9.93), and Victor Hedman (9.85) are the next most efficient point producers among skaters with more than 50 minutes of 5-on-4 ice time.

#6 New York Rangers defenseman Adam Fox is on fire. He has 15 points (2 G, 13 A) during an eight-game point streak. In that two-week span, since March 17, the Rangers are tied with the Colorado Avalanche as the highest scoring team in the league with 4.50 goals/60 in all situations.

RALEIGH, NC - MARCH 20: Columbus Blue Jackets right wing Patrik Laine (29) with the puck during the 1st period of the Carolina Hurricanes vs Columbus Blue Jackets on March 20th, 2021 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC (Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Icon Sportswire)

#7 In his first 10 games with the Columbus Blue Jackets, Patrik Laine scored six goals and added four assists. 10 points in 10 games is pretty good, right? It is. But Laine also had just 18 shots on goal in those 10 games, a remarkably low shot rate for a player who had established in his first four NHL seasons that he needed to get shots in order to provide value. He has never been a great 5-on-5 player in the NHL, so it has been imperative that he either get shooting opportunities in those situations or on the power play in order to reap the rewards of his tremendous shot. In the 17 games since his decent start in Columbus, Laine has one goal (scored on the power play) and three assists, with 33 shots on goal. There were skeptics in the immediate aftermath of the trade, suggesting that a John Tortorella-Patrik Laine pairing would encounter some rocky waters but this has been even worse than the harshest critics could have predicted.

#8 Alex Ovechkin is noted far and wide as the triggerman on the Washington Capitals power play and he has produced just over 35 shot attempts/60 during 5-on-4 play this season. There are six skaters generating an even higher rate of 5-on-4 shot attempts: David Perron (44.7), Mika Zibanejad (39.4), Nikolaj Ehlers (38.2), Kyle Connor (38.2), Dominik Kubalik (37.5), and Adrian Kempe (35.0).

#9 The defenseman with the highest rate of 5-on-4 shot attempts (minimum 50 minutes) is Dougie Hamilton (30.5), ahead of Shayne Gostisbehere (29.2), Drew Doughty (28.9), Aaron Ekblad (28.7), Cale Makar (28.3), and Shea Weber (28.2).

#10 Gostisbehere cleared waivers this week, probably because he has two more years left on his contract, but in his past 16 games for the Flyers, Gostisbehere has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 46 shots on goal. 167 defensemen played at least 200 total minutes in that time and Gostisbehere had a higher rate of shot attempts and shots per minute than any of them.

#11 In that time, the Flyers also had an all-situations save percentage of .848 with Gostisbehere on the ice. Believe it or not, there were three defensemen who have had worse save percentages in that time (since February 24): Gostisbehere’s Philadelphia teammates Philippe Myers (.824) and Travis Sanheim (.834) as well as Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin (.834).

#12 The forwards with the most even-strength ice time without a secondary assist at evens this season: Anze Kopitar, Andrew Mangiapane, Max Domi, and Evgeni Dadonov. Given the unsustainable nature of secondary assists these players might be due for better in that category, but it also might be too late to salvage the overall production of Domi and Dadonov.

#13 There are four defensemen to play at least 400 even-strength minutes and still not have a secondary assist this season: Jani Hakanpaa, Andy Greene, Matthew Benning, and Shayne Gostisbehere.

#14 There are some notable defensemen that have played more than 500 even-strength minutes and have just one secondary assist, including Erik Karlsson, Rasmus Dahlin, and Shea Weber.

#15 Forwards that have the highest rate of secondary assists during even strength minutes (minimum 400 minutes): Gabriel Landeskog (1.45 per 60), James van Riemsdyk (1.42), Jack Roslovic (1.35), Evgeni Malkin (1.26), and Patrice Bergeron (1.15). While Landeskog and Bergeron quite notably have elite linemates, van Riemsdyk and Roslovic appear to be good candidates for regression.

#16 With Malkin out of the lineup, the Penguins have needed Jared McCann to step up and provide secondary offense and McCann has done just that. Since returning to from injury, McCann has 11 points (6 G, 5 A) and 29 shots on goal in 12 games. He has 3.24 primary points/60 this month, which ranks fifth among skaters to play at least 100 5-on-5 minutes. Mark Stone, Artemi Panarin, Connor McDavid, and Mikko Rantanen are the only players with a higher primary points/60 in March.

#17 Last offseason was a strange one for free agency, and it resulted in some proven scorers taking short-term deals, presumably so that they could potentially hit a healthier free agent market after another productive season. That might have been the plan but that is not how it ultimately has turned out for St. Louis Blues winger Mike Hoffman, who has one goal, one assist, and 17 shots on goal in his past 10 games, which earned him a trip to the press box. Hoffman’s individual rates – shot attempts/60, shots/60, expected goals/60, goals/60, points/60 – are all at career lows.

#18 The Blues have been getting outshot handily with Hoffman on the ice (45.8 CF%) and it is not because of his defensive shortcomings, as might be expected, rather it is that when Hoffman is on the ice the Blues are not generating enough offense. Hoffman has moved around the lineup a lot – eight Blues have played more than 50 5-on-5 minutes with Hoffman – and his most common linemate, Brayden Schenn, had terrible results with him (39.4 CF%). Would the Blues, now healthier up front, move Hoffman before the trade deadline?

#19 Goalies with the best all-situations save percentage in the past month (minimum 5 GP): Casey DeSmith (.969), Juuse Saros (.963), Igor Shesterkin (.941), Thatcher Demko (.937), Philipp Grubauer (.936), Kaapo Kahkonen (.934), Alex Nedeljkovic (.934), Carey Price (.931), Tristan Jarry (.928), and Jaroslav Halak (.925).

TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 13: Dallas Stars Left Wing Jason Robertson (21) controls the puck in the second period during the regular season NHL game between the Dallas Stars and Toronto Maple Leafs on February 13, 2020 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. (Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)

#20 Stars rookie winger Jason Robertson has forced his way into a bigger role by producing at an elite level. He was eased into the lineup early, playing less than 12 minutes in six of his first 12 games but as Robertson started to get some points, his role expanded and then as other Stars got injured, Robertson has emerged as a crucial part of the team’s offense. He has 16 points (5 G, 11 A) and 47 shots on goal in the past 16 games. While shots were hard to come by when he wasn’t playing so much, Robertson has now recorded at least three shots on goal in each of his past eight games.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Carey The Load – Montreal Canadiens 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 18:13:10 +0000

REVIEW/STATE OF PLAY - It is hard to overstate how devastating the 2017-18 season was after winning their division in 2016-17, the third time in five years. Out of the playoffs in 2015-16 after losing franchise netminder Carey Price for much of the season his return to form was a harbinger of a window to win it all. GM Marc Bergevin has not been shy about making a big off-season trade, but was relatively quiet apart from moving out contentious former third overall draft pick Alex Galchenyuk for Max Domi this season. At the heart of moving out Galchenyuk was the disappointment in his inability to anchor a top two center position, an Achilles’ heel that has haunted Bergevin in all his wheeling and dealing.

TOUGH OFF-SEASON NEWS - The Canadiens entered the offseason with a huge amount of cap space that was meant to be used to solidify the center position. John Tavares was a target and the feeling was a core including Weber, Price and a true number one center would give them a shot in the next few seasons. Tavares declined to consider offers from the team, nor could they use that cap space to land another center such as Ryan O’Reilly in trade or Paul Stastny in free agency.

A further blow was dealt when it was announced that Weber will miss much of the 2018-19 season after undergoing offseason knee surgery for a meniscal tear. He is expected to be out until December at the earliest. After a successful first year in Montreal he missed much of last season with multiple injuries including surgery on his foot to repair a tendon.

Further controversy included Captain Max Pacioretty, who endured a difficult season and enters camp with no offer from the Canadians and a free agent at seasons end. H likely to be traded presumably for the elusive help down the center. A big dip in in his shooting percentage did not help his goal scoring and a knee injury ended his season in March. As a rental his return will be mitigated but there will be interest in a goal scoring left wing at 29-years old.

GM Bergevin say he is ‘not ready to say we’re rebuilding’. Their futility landed them with the third overall pick and they went for a center in Jesper Kotkaniemi from Finland over highly touted wingers and defenseman. They expect Drouin (23), Domi (23), Brendan Gallagher (26), Andrew Shaw (27) Philip Danault (25) and newly acquired Joel Armia (25) to make up their current core heading into their prime, removing Pacioretty from the equation.

They are counting on a number of youngsters to make a leap this year in Jacob De La Rose (23), Nikita Scherbak (22), Artturi Lehkonen (23) and Charles Hudon (24). Scherbak and Hudon were both rookies last season with Scherbak appearing in only 26 games. He did score 30 points in 26 games in the AHL so will be given a chance to earn a full-time spot in training camp. Lehkonen was a disappointment last season after scoring 18 the prior season. It is possible he lines up on the second line with Kotkaniemi but thrusting an 18-year-old into the harshest spotlight in the NHL is a risky gamble. An unforgiving fan base, or management desperation, could force their hand after learning nothing from the Galchenyuk experience, or even pushing Drouin into that role last season.

A CHALLENGE IN THE MIDDLE - The Canadiens brought back Tomas Plekanec for one season to shore up the middle. It now looks like it will be Drouin, Danault, Plekanec in the top three spots. Hardly a dominant line-up and replacing Galchenyuk on the wing with Domi won’t necessarily increase scoring. Bergevin has been clear he prefers to play Drouin on the wing and he was not helped with shuffling back and forth, winning only 42.5% of his faceoffs. The return for Pacioretty, which may not happen until later this season will have an impact. As the forwards stand now, they will continue to be in the bottom third of the league in offense.

The defense suffers a huge loss with Weber out and Carey Price had the most challenging year of his career in 2017-18 and is so critical to any success he will have to rebound. Jeff Petry was one of the few bright spots in a dismal season stepping up in Weber’s absence hitting career highs in points (42) and ice time (23:30). He scored 23 power play points versus seven the prior season. His production is likely tied to his role with Weber out of the line-up. The next two defenders who had the most ice time were veterans Karl Alzner and Jordie Benn. They made a significant commitment to Alzner despite mediocre skating and puck movement, going against the NHL trend towards mobile puck moving blueliners. Victor Mete was another nice surprise in a bleak year, making the team out of training camp as a 19-year-old. Encouraging season for a productive career. Sophomore defence campaigns can be challenging should not be expected to carry the load.

OUTLOOK - The stats were pretty damning finishing 29^th in goals scored, 26^th in goals against, 30^th on the penalty kill, 29^th in faceoff percentage. They also finished 31^st in shooting percentage (7.7%) and 25^th in save percentage (0.980) and might suggest bad puck luck. They will need to see an improvement in both to have any chance at the playoffs this year. The window for a team to win with Price and Weber is in the next two or three seasons, perhaps four before they have $18.357 in annual cap space tied up in two 35-year-olds.

NHL Playoff Preview: Anaheim Ducks (1) vs. Nashville Predators (WC1)

Daniel Friedman and Robert Howard — Fri, 15 Apr 2016 23:49:24 +0000

Summary: This may be the most interesting series in the first round. You've got a pair of very capable offenses going head-to-head, and the possibility for a major upset – if Pekka Rinne can return to his former glory – and wins the battle against unproven sophomore John Gibson – this is a closer series than first appears.

The offenses matchup over four lines, and they both have good, mobile defense - giving an edge to Weber and Josi as the top pair in the NHL. Some key battles will decide the series, none more important than goaltending. The Nashville forwards need to continue their late season production against the Jennings Trophy winner.

PREDICTION: Anaheim in 7 (note: Daniel is calling for a Nashville win in 7 games, for a spoiler pick)

Key Injuries: ANA – Frederik Andersen had a late season concussion, plus a number of day to day injuries expected to be back for the playoffs, including Gibson, Kesler, Bieksa and Rakell. and Perron – They are a little banged up. NSH – nothing major.

Critical Factors: The addition of Ryan Johansen has given Nashville the big center they have coveted, and he and James Neal are finding some chemistry heading into the playoffs. Filip Forsberg continues his climb to a superstar and could be a difference-maker. Ryan Kesler provides secondary scoring (see Breakouts below), shutdown acumen, and a big game temperament. The emergence of Richard Rakell provides further depth. The Kesler/Johansen matchup could decide the series on its own, particularly if Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry begin to roll. Anaheim gets the edge on the top two lines, but the Nashville depth over four lines should not be underestimated with some veterans that can provide a gritty game, with timely goal-scoring. Both teams boast mobile, creative playmakers who contribute to the offense. Anaheim’s young, quick group, featuring Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler and Hampus Lindholm - all under 24 years of age (six starting defenseman altogether - seriously), and may be overmatched by Nashville with arguably the top pairing in the league in Shea Weber and Roman Josi - and their own young mobile defensemen emerging this season in Matias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis. Pekka Rinne tied for the 8^th worst save percentage this season with 0.908 and struggled. In 34 playoff starts he has a losing record and a save percentage of 0.914, - and finished with 0.901 SV% in March and April to raise further flags – contrasted with John Gibson’s 0.925 SV% over the same time period. The Ducks have gone 34-10- 5 after the Christmas break, overcoming adversity, and buying into a team first/defense first approach in the new year under Boudreau. Additions of Ryan Garbutt and Jamie McGinn mid-season bring more grit and defensive prowess over the third and fourth line.

Potential Break-out Players: Ryan Kesler has been on fire since January 1^st since a brutal start and has managed close to a point a game pace (43-17-24-41) since the New Year – remember he delivered 13 points in 16 games in last year’s playoffs. His linemate Jakob Silfverberg broke out last year in the playoffs and has been hot down the stretch, scoring 11 goals in 14 games (14-11-5-16). Filip Forsberg was a point a game in his last 30 games (30-19-15-34). Ryan Johansen finished with 18 points in 19 games (19-4-14-18). Roman Josi could make his statement as one of the elite defenseman in the league and step out of Shea Weber’s shadow (if he hasn’t already) – he finished the season at a superstar pace (30-4-22-26). David Perron was a good addition, scoring 20 points in 28 games as a Duck (28-8-12-20) and returns from injury in time for the playoffs.

Season Matchup: Nashville 2-1. Both wins were in regulation. Most significantly they have not met since November, with all three games at the start of the season, and they were very different teams then.

Key Stats:

CF% 5v5 (war-on-ice.com): ANA 52.4% (5^th) NSH 52.5% (4^th)

PDO (war-on-ice.com): ANA 99.0 (27^th) NSH 99.l5 (21^st)

Power Play (NHL.com): ANA 23.1% (1^st) NSH 19.7% (10^th)

Penalty Kill (NHL.com): ANA 87.2% (1^st) NSH 81.2% (16^th)

Goals For per-game (NHL.com): ANA 2.62 (17^th) NSH 2.73 (13^th)

Goals Against per-game (NHL.com): ANA 2.29 (1^st) NSH 2.60 (14^th)

Notes: Anaheim’s excellence on special teams, leading the NHL in both categories, provides a big advantage. While they are largely even on offense, Anaheim’s number one ranked defense could be the difference, depending on goaltending. Anaheim had the second worst Osh% (6.6) in the league over the season – from the start of 2016, they were 9^th (8.9) posting a ridiculously low 4.8 Osh% and 97.2 PDO before the New Year. Nashville were middle of the pack in both time periods (7.3 and 7.7).

2015 NHL Playoffs: Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators

McKeen's Hockey — Wed, 15 Apr 2015 15:39:56 +0000

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators

The Chicago Blackhawks should be the odds on favorite to win their third Cup in five years with the monumental news that Patrick Kane has medical clearance to play in the first game of round one. The Hawks have the pedigree and confidence to go all the way, but they have played a lot of hockey in the past five seasons and you have to worry if they have enough as in the tank to go all the way. The real wild card for the Hawks has to be Kane and if his shoulder will allow him to play at his best. Often when an All-Star player returns from injury there is a bit of an exhale from the rest of the team, if either is the case it may be enough to tip the scale towards Nashville as the Hawks will have their hands full in the first round. Chicago is far from a one trick pony with Patrick Kane as we all know. He is Robin to Jonathan Toews Batman and the dynamic duo has a super supporting cast upfront with Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Brandon Saad, Antoine Vermette and Brad Richards. The blue line is another strength anchored by the Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook pair with Kimmo Timonen, Johnny Oduya, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Michal Rozsival forming arguably the best defence in the Western Conference if not the NHL. Corey Crawford has proven over and over that he is a legit starting goalie and provides confidence and stability in the crease as well. With the Hawks cap situation in the immediate future a cause for concern the players and management know that the window of opportunity is as wide as it can get with this roster and the Hawks should be hungry for that third Championship that would cement their legacy as a cap era dynasty.

The Nashville Predators are the first and possibly most formidable obstacle in Chicago’s path to a dynasty. The Preds were world beaters early on in the season led by their star goalie Pekka Rinne who was an early favorite for a Vezina Trophy. What the Preds lack in super-star forwards they make up for in goal and on defense. The team is led by Shea Weber who is one of the best defenseman in the world and is supported by Roman Josi, Seth Jones, Matias Ekholm Ryan Ellis, Cody Franson and Anton Volchenkov. They say you can never have enough D in the playoffs but the Preds depth on the blue line is very impressive. The offence is a score by committee group and will lean heavily on rookie sensation Filip Forsberg. While there is no elite scorer, there are plenty of legitimate offensive options in Mike Ribeiro, James Neal, Mike Fisher, and Craig Smith while players like Paul Gaustad, Calle Jarnkrok, Colin Wilson and Mike Santorelli provide excellent depth. It has been said that to win a Championship in the NHL you need an elite goalie and a stud defenseman or two. Well the Preds check both those boxes and their 2.77 goals per game offense is not too concerning to think they do not have a very good chance to usurp the Hawks as top contender in the West. This series should be hotly contested, very physical, very close and very entertaining!

Top Ten Nashville Predators

Filip Forsberg – Potential rookie of the year breakout performance will be relied on to score some big goals
Mike Ribeiro – A reclamation project paying dividends, has never been a playoff performer but has he finally figured it all out?
Shea Weber – The most important skater both offensively and defensively will attempt to lead this team out of the first round for the first time
James Neal – Was the “real deal” in Pittsburgh, can he recapture that offense without Malkin and Crosby?
Mike Fisher – Solid two-way player brings consistency in regular season and post season.
Craig Smith – Streaky scorer has led the Preds in scoring, can he find consistency in the playoffs?
Roman Josi – Swiss defender had a 50 point season, has to prove he can be a factor in the playoffs
Colin Wilson – Former seventh overall pick scored a 20-20 season, but can he do it in the playoffs?
Ryan Ellis – Former standout for Canada at World Juniors will be counted on for Power play production.
Seth Jones – the 18 year old rookie had 27 points and was a plus-3. He will only get better.

Top Ten Chicago Blackhawks

Patrick Kane – Getting Kane and his 0.98 career playoff PPG offense back for game one is huge.
Jonathan Toews – A proven winner who just keeps finding ways to get the job done.
Marian Hossa – The Hoss is one of the best two way forwards in the NHL and has incredible playoff experience.
Brandon Saad – Hossa lite is proving to be just as effective in the post season as he is in the regular season
Patrick Sharp – Showed signs during the season he may be slowing down, but is still a great fantasy option
Duncan Keith – Has Conn Smythe type impact for the Hawks
Brent Seabrook – plays in Keith’s shadow but is every bit as valuable and important to the Hawks
Antoine Vermette – Trade deadline acquisition dominates in faceoffs which will help with puck possession
Brad Richards – Playoff warrior was playoff MVP during Tampa Bays Cup win, still has enough game to be effective on the third line
Kimmo Timonen – 40 year old is looking for his first Cup, brings a win it for the Gipper mentality

Olympic Fantasy Draft Strategies

Carl Lemelin — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 12:02:42 +0000

All the hype surrounding the upcoming Olympic hockey tournament got me thinking: what if we started an Olympic fantasy pool?

What would be the best strategy? Would it be different than for a regular season pool? Some of you may have one planned already, so here are some tips that could help you edge out the competition in a sprint-type tournament.

1- Don't over-analyze the first round pick: Elite scorers are elite scorers. You probably won't win your pool in the first round, but you may well lose it by making a risky pick that doesn't pan out. Try to get out of the opening round with one of these musts: Canadians Sidney Crosby, John Tavares and Steven Stamkos (if healthy enough); Russians Evgeni Malkin and Alex Ovechkin; American Patrick Kane or Swedish defenseman Erik Karlsson.

2- Study the tournament format: Of the three groups within which the preliminary round games will be played, Group B seems to be the one where offense will be easier to generate. It has two teams that feature no NHL-calibre goaltender, compared to only one such team in each of the other two groups. Therefore, Canadians and Finns should be favored for possible offensive explosions in the early stages of the tourney.

3- Take a chance on a star form a non-elite team: Past the first round of picks, don't hesitate to go for a hunch on a premier player from a middling nation: Finland, Czech Republic, Switzerland or Slovakia. Not many remember that the late Pavol Demitra and Marian Hossa of Slovakia finished 1 and 2 in scoring in Vancouver 2010. All-star type teams like Canada tend to spread out their scoring throughout the line-up while high scorers on mediocre teams get more quality offensive minutes. This may be the pick that makes the difference.

4- Established chemistry matters: There will be no time for getting acquainted in Sochi. Teammates with a built-in relationship from the NHL will have an advantage. Crosby-Chris Kunitz, Jonathan Toews-Patrick Sharp, Phil Kessel-James van Riemsdyk are all players that should be marked with an asterisk on your draft lists.

5- Keep updated on last minute roster decisions: If you are planning on running a competitive Olympic pool, the draft should be held near the eve of the tourney’s opening game (Feb. 12^th). This would give everyone enough time to get a clearer picture of planned PP units and starting goalies. This information will be crucial when compiling defensemen and goalies lists. If such info is unavailable, than make educated guesses. For example, if the draft was held today, I would rank Shea Weber high on my list based on the fact that he has the best right-handed shot to partner-up with Duncan Keith, Canada’s logical choice as quarterback on the PP.

6- Pick a winner and stick with’em: As is the case with playoff pools, you should trust your gut feeling on a team you believe has a chance to go all the way and rely heavily on its players in the heart of the draft. That is how you’ll pile up the points and distance your opponents... Assuming you’re right of course. If someone seems to have the same idea and beats you to every pick, than go to plan B and pick players from the team you think will be the finalist (or at least make the Bronze medal game).

Next week, we’ll take a closer look at some possible sleeper Olympic fantasy picks.