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The Kings won their second Championship in three seasons by virtue of their outstanding depth. While the fantasy value may not match their impressive on-ice performances, there is great value throughout the roster.
Anze Kopitar is evolving into an elite centre that is incredibly durable having missed less than ten games in the past five seasons. He led the Kings in scoring with 70 points in 82 games and showed good chemistry with Marian Gaborik in the playoffs scoring at a point-per-game pace. The line of Jeff Carter, Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli also enjoyed solid chemistry in the post season combining for 51 points. Look for that line to carry over into next season to provide the Kings with scoring depth that should help improve their overall offense which was 26th with 2.42 goals per game.
Defensively the Kings are strong with a league best 2.05 goals against thanks to a top goalie in Jonathan Quick and a defense anchored by Drew Doughty who is arguably the best defenseman in the NHL. The Kings also provide good fantasy value in multi category stats such as hits and blocked shots with players like Dustin Brown, Jarret Stoll, and Robyn Regehr.
The only notable off season loss was Willie Mitchell, who will be missed, but the loss should be absorbed by their depth with Jake Muzzin, Slava Voynov, Robyn Regehr, Matt Greene and Alec Martinez. Up front, GM Dean Lombardi was able to turn Gaborik from a rental into a regular by signing the aging star to a seven year $34 million contract ensuring their offensive depth.
Head Coach Darryl Sutter exploits the Kings depth by playing all four lines a regular shift. This is one of the Kings keys to success and it provides opportunity for good fantasy draft value in early to late rounds.
We have posted the following profiles: Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Marian Gaborik, Mike Richards, Justin Williams, Dustin Brown, Tyler Toffoli, Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, Slava Voynov, Alec Martinez, Jonathan Quick
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It could be a struggling veteran, a high-ceiling youngster who has yet to get his chance at glory or a late-blooming prospect. The key is identifying potential signs pointing to a pending explosion in a player’s production.
The second step will be evaluating the cost: if the player is a free agent, you may have to release someone from your current roster to make room for the new acquisition; if he belongs to a competitor you’ll have to put together an attractive enough package to make your counterpart bite on the offer, without affecting your starting lineup.
Just remember that when you swing for the fences, you must be willing to strike out once in a while. That’s why you shouldn’t spend more than depth players and/or draft picks on under-the-radar purchases, unless you are completely sold on the player’s upside.
It’s definitely too late for Alexander Steen to qualify, but here are a few other notable bombs that have yet to detonate.
Ryan Johansen (C) – CBJ: The 21 y/o has had an underwhelming first couple of seasons in The Show, but we can’t ignore the talent level that made him the Jackets’ 4th overall pick in the 2010 draft. He’s since made consistent gains in strength and skating technique. He may have been rushed by Columbus, cracking the lineup straight out of junior, but had a fortunate confidence-building stint in the AHL during last year’s lock-out (40-17-16-33). Recently posted his best outing as a pro, recording a goal and a helper and logging a career-high 20:22 TOI in Montreal on October 17th. Finally seems to have grabbed a hold of the second line role on an improving roster. Prime candidate if available or if his current owner has lost patience.
T.-J. Brennan (D) – TOR: Should be a fantasy free agent since he didn’t make the Leafs’ opening day roster out of camp. Part of a fantasy GM’s due diligence is following up on AHL stats and if you have, you’ve already noticed the ‘Justin Schultz’-type start to the season that Brennan is authoring (5-8-4-12, +4 – league scoring leader). You read it right, that is not a typo! Brennan is a key injury away from a shot at quarterbacking the Leafs’ PP and might then do too good a job to be sent back down. He’s already proven he can produce offense in the NHL (19-2-7-9 for Florida last season). Great opportunity if your league allows for a farm team or a deep roster. Hurry before someone else notices the video game numbers!
Cory Conacher (LW-RW) – OTT: Only has 7 points in his first 20 games as a Senator (8-2-0-2 this season), after a strong start in his rookie season with the Lightning last season (35-9-15-24). There is a reason this torpedo of a winger was called ‘mini- St-Louis’ in Tampa Bay. He has the exceptional vision and the proverbial knack for being in the right place at the right time. Now his +4 rating has him in coach Paul MacLean’s good books, which has translated in a regular spot on Ottawa’s first line and first PP unit (with Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek). He’s on the verge of a major breakthrough and has point-a-game upside.
Slava Voynov (D) – LAK: The young Russian rearguard has been quiet following a stellar campaign in 2013 that featured a Conn-Smythe type performance during another solid playoff run for the Kings. He is well behind last year’s point producing pace, but it is noteworthy that his booming point shot has him on an early pace for his best goal-scoring season. The assist shortage (9-2-1-3 so far this season) might simply be a by-product of a generally anemic start for L.A. offensively (21st overall with a 2.33 G/G). Voynov has been much more involved in the offense lately and should get back on track toward a 40-50 point posting. Trigger-happy fantasy owners could be lured here.
Almost two thirds into the season, we now have a clearer picture of the 2013 fantasy outlook. Sure you want to win your league championship this year if you’re still in the running. But for keeper leaguers out there, this is the time of year to make educated projections for next season concerning: your core group, your overall depth chart, your protection list, your strengths and needs.
As you examine and rate each player, you must determine if the risers will keep rising and if your struggling assets are on a permanent down-slope. This week, we go through this exercise with 2013’s class of rising and fading fantasy properties.
PLEASANT SURPRISES
Chris Stewart (RW) – STL: (28-14-14-28, +5) You don’t score 28 goals in consecutive NHL seasons by fluke. Stewart did that before a lack of focus and physical commitment caused him to drop off the fantasy planet last year. We quickly forget this guy is only 25. He now understands the importance of off-season training, especially for a budding power-forward. As a result, he has the Avalanche (and every former fantasy owner) regretting losing their patience with him during his one season slump. He’ll be a jewel for years to come.
Jacob Voracek (RW) – PHI: (29-13-18-31, -6) Must be the Flyers’ orange meshing with the long red hair... Seriously though, Jaromir Jagr’s departure has meant a promotion to the top line for the big Czech winger and, dare we say, he is starting to resemble his famous compatriot: wide stance, long reach, strong along the wall and protects the puck well. He’s always displayed decent vision, but now has the confidence and the linemates (Claude Giroux and Scott Hartnell) to execute scoring plays. Hey fantasy world, here’s your new perennial point-a-gamer.
Slava Voynov (D) – LAK: (27-4-15-19, +10) The highly intelligent Russian rearguard has proven to be a quick study at both pro levels. Makes much better reads on the rush this season, quickly recognizing carrying and passing options. Has even dislodged Drew Doughty from first PP unit duties. His hard one-timer is a tantalizing weapon, but he has learned to use it as a decoy (a-la Al MacInnis), making him that much more effective as a quarterback. We do expect Doughty to recover his spot as his conditioning picks up (as it usually does) late in the season, so don’t expect the same scoring pace the rest of the way. Voynov has arrived however as a legitimate 40 point D-man.
Sergei Bobrovsky (G) – CLB: (20-.932) The Jackets finally seem to have found their man between the pipes. Second in the league in SP, the 23 y/o Russian has earned a point for his team in his last 9 starts. His technique seems to finally have caught up to his quick reflexes. His game has steadied and so has the team in front of him under Todd Richards’ tutelage. This season has taught us that no goalie is set-back proof, but Bobrovsky looks as good as any under-25 prospect in the crease at the moment.
PUZZLING STRUGGLES
Jordan Eberle (RW) – EDM: (28-7-13-20, -8) After witnessing him dominate the AHL during the lock-out, many expected Eberle to lead the young Edmonton offense, one that would be among the elite in the NHL. But it has been Taylor Hall and Sam Gagner doing the leading. Eberle and his centerman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, are being challenged physically by top opposing checkers and have to work harder than they probably anticipated in order to generate quality scoring chances. As a fantasy scout, there is one combination of elite skills you should look for that unmistakably leads to offensive success in The Show: quick and soft hands with a high hockey I.Q. The Nuge and Eberle do possess both in spades. The diminutive winger will find a way to get back to the point-a-game pace in short order... and beyond that in the long term.
Drew Stafford (RW) – BUF: (29-4-7-11, -10) His PPG has gone up and down these past few seasons. But this is a second straight down year and such a huge set-back at 27 y/o that it leads us to believe Stafford may have over-achieved in the past. Because of deficiencies with his skating and hockey sense, Stafford relies on chemistry with his centerman in order to produce consistent offense. His poor play this season now has him off the top 6, his minutes diminishing as the season rolls along. His plus-minus is trending the wrong way, suggesting the minutes aren’t likely to go up any time soon on a struggling squad looking for answers. Fantasy value: 0.
Jaroslav Halak (G) – STL: (11-.881) Have the Blues found their tender of the future in Jake Allen? Nobody saw this coming on the eve of the 2013 season as St-Louis was touted as a Cup contender, mostly due to their stellar duo of Halak and Brian Elliott. The Slovak’s undersized frame seems to sap him of the stamina needed from a number one goalie at this level. The numbers back-up this theory: Halak has played more than 46 games only once and in that season (57 GP in 2010-11) he posted a middling .910 SP. Halak’s nightmarish season, combined with 22 y/o Jake Allen’s current run (8-1-0, .920 SP) does nothing to improve the likelihood of him ever being viewed as a legitimate franchise goalie.
]]>Presented below is a list of 30 players - one per team - focusing on the potential for greater contribution in this shortened season.
There are a few familiar names and few that may seem out of place (Tomas Kaberle) but there is value identified here.
I've tried to isolate one player from each team with upside in 2013 for improved offensive results.
Player |
Team |
Notes |
| Nick Bonino | Anaheim | Slated to line up between Bobby Ryan and Teemu Selanne with more responsibility and good production |
| Rich Peverley | Boston | Plug-n-play forward is an undervalued late round gem, hanging in queues too long year after year |
| Ville Leino | Buffalo | Skilled playmaker hit rock bottom after signing long-term yet has the ability to make it up in a rebound season |
| Jiri Hudler | Calgary | Ended tenure in Detroit with benefits of better conditioning, positioning and net presence required for impact in Calgary |
| Justin Falk | Carolina | Started '11-12 as a green rookie and ended an All Star on the World Stage .. won't be cheap or overlooked this season |
| Nick Leddy | Chicago | Speedy rearguard established himself as a dangerous part of the Hawks mobility adding depth to the blueline |
| P.A. Parenteau | Colorado | Talented playmaker energized Islanders top lines and will do the same in Avalanche silks |
| Brandon Dubinsky | Columbus | More offensive responsibility and power play time translates into improved overall numbers for former Blueshirt |
| Alex Goligoski | Dallas | Mobile rearguard may benefit most from playmaking upgrades up front, especially on the power play |
| Mikael Samuelsson | Detroit | Shaking off injury-riddled season, prodigal son rides shotgun as the trigger man beside fellow Swede Zetterberg |
| Justin Schultz | Edmonton | Marvellous pro debut in Oklahoma City has amplified whispers of Calder Trophy Candidate. Excuse early bumps and think longer term |
| Scottie Upshall | Florida | Injury-plagued season and only two goals will drop him at the draft table, but he's capable of 20 goals and a rebound |
| Slava Voynov | Los Angeles | Sleek blueliner's skating ability and big shot from the point provided the Kings the option to trade Jack Johnson |
| Mikael Granlund | Minnesota | Potential rookie of the year made considerable gains in Houston that will benefit in the NHL. Second line center for now |
| Tomas Kaberle | Montreal | Skilled Czech rearguard has a 40 point bounce back potential with upgrades in conditioning and greater rushing freedom |
| Roman Josi | Nashville | Swiss rearguard steps into the void created by the Ryan Suter departure as he enters next stage of development |
| Marek Zidlicky | New Jersey | Mobile rearguard salvaged at the deadline will QB the Devils power play and lead the blueline in scoring |
| Nino Niederreiter | New York Islanders | Scorched a path through the AHL as a run up to a much improved NHL sophomore campaign |
| Carl Hagelin | New York Rangers | Industrious sophomore compliments thrives through sheer will and determination as a scoring threat. Starts on the top scoring unit to start the season |
| Kyle Turris | Ottawa | A full training camp and advances in strength and conditioning has a breakout signals all over 2007 first rounder |
| Jakob Voracek | Philadelphia | That bubbling you hear is the Czech's untapped upside surfacing to a breakout after signing a new four-year deal |
| Mikkel Boedker | Phoenix | Great Dane should build off impressive playoffs while readiness and necessity set the background in a prime scoring role |
| Brandon Sutter | Pittsburgh | Shutdown pivot has a realistic shot to return to the 20-goal plateau with boost in talented surrounding cast |
| Martin Havlat | San Jose | Extended time off by the lockout has to have helped one of the NHL's most fragile wingers |
| Alex Steen | St Louis | Health is the only concern for the industrious and versatile son of former Swedish star Thomas Steen |
| Victor Hedman | Tampa Bay | Greater support cast on the blueline opens the opportunity to showcase offensive creativity |
| Nik Kulemin | Toronto | Much too talented and complete a player for the Russian to rebound from abysmal 7 goals in '11-12 |
| Jason Garrison | Vancouver | Bestows a howitzer point shot that enhances an already lethal Canucks power play |
| Mike Green | Washington | Vowed to return to 70-pt level after signing contract. Health permitting the world awaits |
| Tobias Enstrom | Winnipeg | Enters his prime as the Jets best puck mover on the blueline, and a blistering point shot |
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The basis for making the "under the radar" fantasy all-star team is that, quite simply, these players will likely fall further than they should in your draft because they are either (a) unproven, (b) playing for poor teams or (c) coming off bad seasons. But those kinds of gambles are exactly what can win your pool (assuming your competitors aren't also holding this list, of course).
FORWARDS
Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado
Big Swede simply got better and better as his rookie season wore on, emerging as a dominant forward at 18 years old late in the year and showing every indication he’ll be a perennial star. There’s always the danger of a sophomore slump but with that comes the upside he continues his great second half and hits 65 points or more.
Mikko Koivu, Minnesota
Still one of the more underrated two-way players in the entire league, Koivu is a 75-point talent stuck in an organization that has always struggled to produce a lot of goals. The additions of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter should help immensely there, shining the spotlight on the man in the middle.
Cody Hodgson, Buffalo
Shipped to the Sabres after not getting the playing time he craved in Vancouver, Hodgson’s debut with his new team wasn’t overwhelmingly impressive. It was, however, good enough that they shipped out Derek Roy to create a hole in the middle, and Hodgson has the talent to put up big numbers with quality wingers.
Eric Staal, Carolina
Granted an odd candidate for an under the radar list, but consider the following: Here’s a player who has had seven consecutive 70-point seasons and was absolutely dominant in the second half last year after having some brutal luck in the early going. Staal will be rejuvenated with brother Jordan in the fold and could get even more offensive help as GM Jim Rutherford continues to add. Bet on a point a game and hope for more - because he’s done it before.
Tomas Plekanec, Montreal
Last season was a disaster for pretty much everyone in Montreal, but the good news there is that there’ll be plenty of rebound candidates on the roster. Plekanec’s going to continue to get big minutes and last year’s 52 points should be the low water mark.
Antoine Vermette, Phoenix
Languished in Columbus (along with many others) but looked reborn upon jumping to the Coyotes and will continue to be a favourite of coach Dave Tippett. Vermette could easily slip to the later rounds but is a safe bet for 45 points and has hit 65 in the past. It’s not like he’ll have much competition for playing time, either.
Mike Ribeiro, Washington
Not really a fan favourite around the league given some of his high profile flops, Ribeiro nonetheless has averaged more than 65 points a season the last four years. The Capitals will also not be nearly as defensive as they were under Dale Hunter, meaning Ribeiro will be freelancing out there with Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green at times.
James Van Riemsdyk, Toronto
Let’s try this again. The man known as 'JVR' is the only player to make this list both last year and this one, but given the injuries, it’s worth giving him a mulligan. Toronto wasn’t very good last season, but they did score plenty of goals and won’t lose a single piece from that cast up front. Van Riemsdyk will also get plenty of opportunities to prove he can centre the top line, and any time with Phil Kessel is 'pucks in net' time.
Kyle Turris, Ottawa
He may not ever be a huge scorer, but he is also in little danger of losing his second line spot and will benefit from playing a full season with the Sens. Turris’s totals of a year ago prorate to 43 points so that’s a good starting point for where he’ll land in a full season. And you always hope for more.
Derek Stepan, NY Rangers
There is a reason Glen Sather considered him an untouchable in summer trade talks: There’s great potential in Stepan, even if he remains far from a household name. Right now, you’re guaranteed at least 45 or 50 points, but you never know when he’ll break out and hit 60 or higher. Hopefully it’s after you’ve picked him.
Mikael Granlund, Minnesota
The first of two wild cards. Granlund is a prospect first and foremost, but on a Wild team hoping to make a huge splash and score far more goals, he could get a first line role. Is he ready for that? Impossible to say for sure, but one of the reasons Zach Parise and Ryan Suter signed on with Minnesota was their prospect depth and Granlund is at the top of that list. Could surprise.
Marcus Foligno, Buffalo
Made a phenomenal jump from junior in having an excellent AHL season and then netted 13 points in 14 NHL games. The Sabres forward lines are crowded and he’s probably stuck in the bottom six, but the team’s brass loves him and will give him plenty of opportunities to succeed. Anywhere from 25 to 55 points is possible so bid accordingly.
Ales Hemsky, Edmonton
A forgotten man given all of the Oilers blossoming young talent, Hemsky could surprise everyone with a big bounce back year if he can just stay healthy. That, of course, is a big if, but he was close to a point a game guy the previous few seasons and should come extra cheap given he had only 36 points while playing through injury. Still not that old, either.
DEFENSEMEN
Alex Goligoski, Dallas
Took a step back last season to just 30 points from 46 the year before but should be the beneficiary of the added firepower Stars GM Joe Nieuwendyk added in Derek Roy, Jaromir Jagr and Ray Whitney. Sure, this an old crew, but that’s a good power play crew and Goligoski can get 30-plus points there alone.
Dmitry Kulikov, Florida
No more Jason Garrison with the Panthers should mean a bigger role for young blueliner who everyone continues to wait for a breakout from. The only question is will it come now or will Filip Kuba take a lot of those minutes?
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Phoenix
Unquestionably a future star, he has the misfortune for playing for the super stingy Coyotes, which may hurt his offensive production for the next few years. Still, if you want to grab the next horse on the blueline in a keeper league, here’s a prime opportunity.
Nikita Nikitin, Columbus
Quietly had a terrific breakout season last year on a terrible team and will be entrusted with top four minutes from the get-go this time around. They’re going to load him up with tough minutes, so don’t expect a good plus-minus figure, but Nikitin is one of the better defencemen in the league that no one has heard about.
Jamie McBain, Carolina
Took a small step back as the ‘Canes struggled mightily out of the gate but has plenty of potential and at 24 will continue to take on more and more of a role. Carolina’s offence should improve with the addition of Jordan Staal alone and at some point McBain will hit that 40-point mark and get on poolies’ radar.
Slava Voynov, Los Angeles
So long Jack Johnson. Voynov’s emergence last season was one of the underrated aspects of the Kings championship, as the young Russian went from the minors to playing a regular role in the top four and chipped in offensively, too. He’s a bit buried behind Drew Doughty, but his totals last season prorate to 30 points and that’s with limited power play time. Trending up.
Brendan Smith, Detroit
It’s always very difficult to project young defencemen who have limited NHL experience, but the Red Wings always seem to do an excellent job of working their rookies in slowly and Smith has been apprenticing for this role for ages. Big time potential here - and there’s a hole to fill with Nick Lidstrom’s retirement - but how soon will we see it?
GOALTENDERS
Braden Holtby, Washington
After a star turn in last year’s playoffs, the Capitals are putting their faith in the rookie this season and indications are he should be able to deliver. While Michal Neuvirth is capable of beating him out for a lot of starts, Holtby has the inside track and could end up starting a lot of games for one of the Eastern Conference’s stronger teams.
James Reimer, Toronto
How dangerously do you like to live? If the Leafs go in with Reimer and Ben Scrivens as their tandem, any number of possibilities could unfold, including Reimer regaining his 2010-11 form and excelling as a No. 1 over a prolonged stretch. He won’t get much help from his defence, so buyer beware. (And if you want to really go nuts, take a flier on Scrivens.)
A long-time member of the McKeen’s Hockey team, James Mirtle covers the NHL for The Globe and Mail and is based in Toronto.
You can read more of his work at globesports.com
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