Spencer Martin – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Vilardi heating up, Kakko on the move, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 21 Dec 2024 00:53:01 +0000

_{LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 13: Winnipeg Jets center Gabriel Vilardi (13) celebrates his goal during an NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on December 13, 2023 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)}

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Gabriel Vilardi is hot, Pavel Buchnevich is thriving on the wing, Kirill Marchenko leads the surprising Blue Jackets, a fresh start for Kaapo Kakko, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 Winnipeg Jets right-winger Gabriel Vilardi is heating up. The 25-year-old forward has tallied 11 points (5 G, 6 A) with 16 shots on goal while averaging 19:26 of ice time per game in his past eight games. He is in a great spot, skating on the Jets’ top line with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, as well as playing on the top power-play unit. Injuries have been a significant factor in Vilardi’s career, and he has never played more than 63 games in a season, so it is surprising that he has played in all 34 games for the Jets thus far. Vilardi has 28 points already, so if he remains healthy, he should surpass his career high of 41 points set in 2022-2023.

#2 The St. Louis Blues tried to shift Pavel Buchnevich to centre at the start of the season, confident that his all-around game would fit in that role, and it did not bring out the best in the veteran forward. He has been returned to the wing and in 10 games since Jim Montgomery took over behind the Blues bench, Buchnevich has contributed nine points (4 G, 5 A) with 27 shots on goal and has most recently found himself skating on a line with Jake Neighbours and Robert Thomas.

#3 The leading scorer for the Columbus Blue Jackets this season, with 33 points (11 G, 22 A) in 33 games, is third-year right winger Kirill Marchenko. In his past 15 games, he has 17 points (5 G, 12 A) and 46 shots on goal. He plays 18 minutes per game, consistently generates shots and has a good thing going on Columbus’ top line with Dmitri Voronkov and Sean Monahan.

#4 With just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 30 games for the New York Rangers, right winger Kaapo Kakko was traded to the Seattle Kraken, an opportunity for a fresh start for the second pick in the 2019 Draft. Kakko, 23, had career highs of 18 goals and 40 points during the 2022-2023 season but has not been able to generate enough offense to meet expectations. While Kakko’s puck possession numbers aren’t great this season, it has typically been a strength of his, so he should be able to hold a regular spot in the Kraken lineup. In his first game for Seattle, Kakko skated on a line with Jared McCann and Matty Beniers, which would be a decent spot for him to find his offensive game.

#5 With the Edmonton Oilers scoring at a high rate, ranking second in the league over the past month, there are secondary sources of offense available on this squad. One worth considering is defenceman Darnell Nurse, who has five assists and 14 shots on goal in his past six games. Nurse has 15 points (3 G, 12 A) in 29 games, with just one point on the power play, but he has been this productive despite an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.1 percent during five-on-five play. That mark should go up, so it would be a reasonable expectation for Nurse to score at least a half-point per game for the rest of the season. For a player who delivers hits and blocked shots as well, Nurse has value in most fantasy formats.

#6 Colorado Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen has thrived with the Avs, where his hard-working industrious style of play complements Colorado’s highly skilled top players. In his past 11 games, Lehkonen has nine points (7 G, 2 A) and 25 shots on goal while averaging more than 22 minutes of ice time per game. He skates on Colorado’s top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, which is obviously a prime position for Lehkonen to continue delivering offensive production.

#7 After a slow start to the season, veteran Utah Hockey Club right winger Nick Schmaltz has started to break out of his slump, scoring at a more typical rate. Through his first 19 games of the season, Schmaltz had zero goals and 13 assists with 38 shots on goal. In a dozen games since then, he has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) with 30 shots on goal. As a key player on Utah’s top line and first power play unit, Schmaltz tends to be a reliable scoring threat and appears to be back on track.

#8 As the Buffalo Sabres are watching their season go down the drain, defenceman Owen Power has quietly been very productive. While Power has 20 points (4 G, 16 A) in 32 games, it’s notable that all 20 points have come at even strength, which puts him third in even-strength scoring among defencemen, behind only Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. Power’s offensive ceiling would seem to be limited in Buffalo, where Rasmus Dahlin (currently injured) and Bowen Byram have power play priority, but the towering defender is already productive at 22 years old.

#9 Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry has become a consistently productive scorer in recent seasons, even if it sometimes gets overlooked because of where he plays. In his past 11 games, Terry has put up 13 points (3 G, 10 A) with 37 shots on goal while averaging 19:53 of ice time per game. On a Ducks team trying to build around young players, Terry is skating on a line with Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome on Anaheim’s No. 1 line.

#10 The Anaheim Ducks shuffled the deck on their blueline, dealing veteran defenceman Cam Fowler to the St. Louis Blues and part of the reason for the change was to give younger defencemen the opportunity to step into bigger roles. Second-year blueliner Jackson LaCombe is making the most of his chances and, in December, has suddenly produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal in seven games. He is playing nearly 20 minutes per game in that time and is getting first-unit power play time, which makes him a legitimate option for fantasy managers.

#11 Nashville Predators defenceman Roman Josi has been battling a lower-body injury and has landed on the injured list. With Josi out, Brady Skjei takes over as the quarterback on the Nashville power play. Skjei has failed to record a point in each of his past nine games, despite playing nearly 23 minutes per game, leaving him with nine points (2 G, 7 A) in 32 games. That is a long way off the pace that Skjei set in Carolina over the previous three seasons when he produced 124 points (40 G, 84 A) in 243 games for the Hurricanes.

#12 Another former Hurricane, winger Teuvo Teravainen started slowly upon his return to Chicago, managing eight points (4 G, 4 A) in his first 18 games, with half of those goals and points coming in the third game of the season. Since then, Teravainen has 13 points (3 G, 10 A) in 15 games and he is skating on Chicago’s third line, alongside Jason Dickinson and Ilya Mikheyev.

#13 It would be too soon to recommend Oilers right winger Connor Brown in anything but the deepest of leagues, but he is worth keeping an eye on because the Oilers are not getting consistent production from their wingers and Brown did contribute more offensively before joining the Oilers last season. Brown managed just a dozen points (4 G, 8 A) in 71 games for Edmonton last season, but is up to 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 32 games this season after producing eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his past 11 games.

#14 Red Winger centre J.T. Compher has contributed a point per game (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games, a sudden increase in his offensive output. While his ice time is down by 2:33 per game compared to last season, Compher is still getting first-unit power play time in addition to his time at centre on Detroit’s third line. As a player who had 48 and 52 points, respectively, in the previous two seasons, Compher is behind his previous scoring pace, but if he remains productive, his ice time will likely climb.

#15 Seattle Kraken right winger Oliver Bjorkstrand has been a consistent contributor but has elevated his level of play in the past month. In 14 games, he has 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 30 shots on goal. Bjorkstrand gets first unit power play time for the Kraken, but only five of his 23 points this season have come with the man advantage. The recent uptick in his production has come at even strength, where he has more recently been playing with Shane Wright and Eeli Tolvanen. Bjorkstrand tallied a career-high 59 points (20 G, 39 A) last season, with 25 points on the power play, so that would seem to be an area that still has room for further improvement.

#16 Vegas Golden Knights winger Ivan Barbashev has been sidelined with an upper-body injury and it’s worth pointing out what a big hole that leaves in the lineup. Barbarshev has 26 points during five-on-five play and Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov is the only player in the league with more points during five-on-five play. Certainly, playing with Jack Eichel is a big part of Barbashev’s success, and Pavel Dorofeyev has joined Eichel and Stone on Vegas’ top line with Barbashev out of the lineup. Dorofeyev played 19:31 in Thursday’s win against Vancouver, the second-highest ice time of his career.

#17 As the Pittsburgh Penguins may be turning around a season that looked hopelessly lost, defenceman Matt Grzelcyk has turned into a solid contributor, putting up nine points (1 G, 8 A) in his past nine games. Eight of Grzelcyk’s 17 points this season have come on the power play and the Penguins are running a rare power play with two defencemen on the top unit and it’s been Grzelcyk and Kris Letang in those roles, with Erik Karlsson on PP2.

#18 There are ups and downs along the path for Montreal Canadiens goaltender Samuel Montembeault, who has had nine games this season in which he has allowed at least four goals, but he has a .914 save percentage to go along with a 4-3 record in seven starts this month. He has 7.73 Goals Saved Above Expected this season, which ranks eighth in the league, ahead of Igor Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, and Jacob Markstrom. Wins might not come so easily for the Canadiens goaltender, but his performance thus far makes him a legitimate fantasy option and it backs up Team Canada’s choice to include him on the roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off.

#19 Sticking with all situations Goals Saved Above Expected but looking at the low end of the spectrum, the goaltenders with the fewest Goals Saved Above Expected this season: Boston’s Jeremy Swayman (-14.53), San Jose’s Alexandar Georgiev (-13.56), Columbus’ Daniil Tarasov (-11.39), Utah’s Connor Ingram (-9.61), and Carolina’s Spencer Martin (-9.56). From that group, Swayman obviously stands out, given the strong track record that he had prior to this season, but Ingram had an excellent season in 2023-2024, so his decline before getting hurt is notable, too. The goaltenders at the top of the list might be surprising, too, at least after Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (+22.84). The rest of the top five are: Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal (+17.51), Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz (+13.46), Seattle’s Joey Daccord (+11.39), and Utah’s Karel Vejmelka (+10.94).

#20 There are some popular players with fantasy managers who are running ice cold lately, including New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton, Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson, the Rangers’ Chris Kreider, and Buffalo’s Alex Tuch, among others. Hamilton has gone seven games without a point and his ice time has dropped below 18 minutes in three of his past four games. In his past five games, Pettersson has zero points and eight shots on goal, while averaging 16:50 of ice time per game. Kreider recorded his first (and only) assist of the season on December 6th and has since gone six straight games without a point, though he does have 17 shots on goal in that span. Tuch has one point (1 G, 0 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past six games and played a season-low 14:34 against Montreal on Tuesday.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Zegras scoring again, Sharangovich finding his form, Valeri Nichushkin is a difference maker again, a closer look at some of the top rookies, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 30 Nov 2024 15:58:22 +0000

Calgary Flames center Yegor Sharangovich (17) (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Trevor Zegras is scoring again, Yegor Sharangovich is finding his form, Valeri Nichushkin is a difference maker again, a closer look at some of the top rookies, and much more!

#1 Anaheim Ducks centre Trevor Zegras had two 60-point seasons to his credit before managing just 15 points in 31 games last season when his campaign was shortened by injuries including a broken ankle. It wasn’t getting any better early in 2024-2025 either, as Zegras had just three points (1 G, 2 A) through his first 15 games. There have been some recent signs of progress, however, as Zegras has produced seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 16 shots on goal in the past six games. It is still ridiculous that he is skating at centre while winning 39.4 percent of his faceoffs, but if that is the best spot for his playmaking ability to shine, then that is what the Ducks need to do. With Leo Carlsson suffering an upper-body injury earlier this week, the Ducks need Zegras to continue delivering offensive production.

#2 A pleasant surprise for the Calgary Flames last season when he hit career highs with 31 goals and 59 points after he was acquired from New Jersey, Yegor Sharangovich suffered a lower-body injury in the preseason and started slowly once he rejoined the lineup. He had just two goals in 12 games, despite playing more than 18 minutes per game, but he has picked up five points (3 G, 2 A) in his past four games while recording 20 shots on goal and averaging 19:50 of ice time per game. Of his seven points on the season, four have come via the power play, so there is room for much improvement during five-on-five play.

#3 Returning to the Colorado Avalanche lineup after serving a six-month suspension for violating the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program policy, Valeri Nichushkin had no points and just four shots on goal in his first three games but appears to be back on track. In the past three games, Nichushkin has contributed five points (2 G, 3 A) with eight shots on goal and he played a season-high 22:47 in Wednesday’s win over Vegas.

#4 Anaheim Ducks rookie winger Cutter Gauthier came into the season with some expectations. He was the fifth pick in the 2022 Draft, scored 102 points (54 G, 48 A) in 73 games in two seasons at Boston College and was productive in international play, too, producing 22 points (6 G, 16 A) in 14 games across two years at the World Juniors, plus he had nine points (7 G, 2 A) in 10 games at the 2023 World Championships. All of this indicated that he should be able to contribute quickly in the NHL. He did not record a point in his first five games, but since then has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 38 shots on goal in 16 games. There is also a stat that is quite encouraging about Gauthier’s potential ability to sustain his production. Among players that have played at least 200 five-on-five minutes, Nashville’s Filip Forsberg (24.82) is the only one with a higher rate of individual shot attempts per 60 minutes, as Gauthier has 21.95, putting him ahead of Owen Tippett, Brady Tkachuk, and Jeff Skinner.

#5 The leading point producer among rookies is Philadelphia Flyers right winger Matvei Michkov, who has 17 points (8 G, 9 A) in 21 games, despite being a healthy scratch for two games. Michkov has an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.0 percent during five-on-five play, which is quite low for an offensive forward, so he should be able to find his way to more assists, but he is also scoring on 20.0 percent of his shots on goal, so there could very well be some regression on that side of the ledger, too.

#6 The first pick in the 2024 Draft, San Jose Sharks centre Macklin Celebrini may very well be the best of the rookie class. He missed some time due to injury, but he has 11 points (7 G, 4 A) in 13 games. He has 43 shots on goal, and is averaging 20:15 of ice time per game, both of which are great indications that his production should continue at a high level. To temper some of the enthusiasm, it should be noted that Celebrini has an individual points percentage of 100.0 percent and that is not likely to last an entire season. To be fair, however, last season’s top rookie, Conor Bedard finished with a league-leading IPP for 91.89 percent (minimum 1000 five-on-five minutes).

#7 Second-year Anaheim Ducks defenceman Olen Zellweger is on the smaller side of things, listed at 5-foot-9, 182 pounds, but he is such a nimble skater with a flair for offensive production that there is clearly a role for him in the Ducks’ plans. In his past six games, Zellweger has six points (2 G, 4 A) with 13 shots on goal. Zellweger is quarterbacking the Ducks’ top power play unit and four of his 10 points this season have come with the man advantage.

#8 Dallas Stars centre Tyler Seguin is playing 16:15 per game, his lowest average time on ice since his rookie season 2010-2011. Nevertheless, he is also averaging better than a point per game with 18 points (8 G, 10 A) in 17 games. That is built on some high percentages, including an individual shooting percentage of 19.0 percent and an on-ice shooting percentage of 13.0 percent during five-on-five play. Both of those marks would be career highs for Seguin, so regression is probably coming, but he may offer some short-term value before those percentages start to level out.

#9 The third pick in the 2022 Draft, Utah Hockey Club centre Logan Cooley continues to make progress in his second NHL season. Cooley has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 14 shots on goal, while averaging more than 18 minutes of ice time per game, across his past six games. He is playing on Utah’s top power play unit while centering Jack McBain and Dylan Guenther at even strength.

#10 Vancouver Canucks right winger Kiefer Sherwood has climbed the depth chart and is skating on Vancouver’s top line, alongside Elias Pettersson and Jake DeBrusk. Sherwood has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 14 shots on goal in his past six games and is far and away the leading hitter in the NHL, with 137 hits in 21 games. He is 34 hits ahead of Nashville defenceman Jeremy Lauzon and 43 hits ahead of the second-ranked forward, Brady Tkachuk. Sherwood’s outrageous hit totals give him fantasy value anyway, but with an increasing offensive role, his appeal is growing by the game.

#11 Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere is a power play specialist this season, recording 12 of his 17 points (70.6 percent) this season with the man advantage. The only defenceman in the league with a higher ratio of power play points is Ottawa Senators blueliner Jake Sanderson, who has registered 14 points, with 11 (78.6 percent) on the power play. Among defencemen with at least five power play points, the top five gets rounded out by the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Morgan Rielly and Montreal Canadiens’ Mike Matheson, who both have seven of 13 points on the power play, as well as Nashville Predators captain Roman Josi, who has half of his 18 points on the power play.

#12 While Gostisbehere is pumping up his point totals on the power play, his teammate, Dmitry Orlov, is busy getting his production at even strength. Orlov has recorded an assist in six straight games and has zero power play points among his 14 points this season. The highest scoring defencemen who have yet to record a power play point this season: Buffalo’s Owen Power and Vegas’ Alex Pietrangelo, who both have 15 points, one more than Orlov. Buffalo’s Bowen Byram has 13 and three defencemen – St. Louis’ Colton Parayko, Minnesota’s Jake Middleton and Colorado’s Samuel Girard – have a dozen points without any on the power play.

#13 Shuffled into the background in Nashville, defenceman Dante Fabbro has thrived since he was acquired off waivers by the Columbus Blue Jackets. In seven games since joining Columbus, Fabbro has four points (2 G, 2 A), while playing 21:42 per game as a partner for Zach Werenski. It is probably too soon to go after Fabbro, save for the deepest of leagues, but he is worth keeping tabs on in his new location.

#14 Veteran Vancouver Canucks winger Conor Garland has been a consistent source of secondary scoring throughout his career, but the Canucks are giving him more responsibility this season and he is responding favorably. He has seven points (2 G, 5 A) with 16 shots on goal in his past six games, giving him 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 21 games, leading Vancouver’s forwards in scoring. Garland is averaging a career-high 19:13 of ice time per game, which includes time on the first power play unit, and he has six power play points this season surpassing last season’s total of five power play points.

#15 Philadelphia Flyers captain Sean Couturier may not get back to the offensive production that marked the peak of his career, but he is still delivering quality results for his team. Couturier has goals in three straight games, recording 10 shots on goal in the process, lifting him to 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 22 games, but the Flyers are also controlling 56.9 percent of shot attempts and 55.2 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play with Couturier on the ice. He is also winning 58.0 percent of his faceoffs, which ranks 11th among players that have taken at least 200 faceoffs.

#16 The St. Louis Blues reacted quickly when Jim Montgomery was fired by the Boston Bruins, hiring him to replace Drew Bannister. Dylan Holloway and Zack Bolduc have been early beneficiaries of the change. Holloway has produced four points (2 G, 2 A) and eight shots on goal while playing 16:55 per game since Montgomery took over on the Blues bench. Bolduc does not play as much, but still scored two goals with seven shots on goal in Montgomery’s first game.

#17 Maybe wins don’t come too easily for Chicago Blackhawks netminder Petr Mrazek, but he is giving his team a chance to win most nights. Mrazek was mediocre in his first handful of starts, posting a save percentage of .887, but since then has a .923 save percentage with a 5-5-1 record in 11 starts. His overall save percentage of .912 ranks 12th among goaltenders that have appeared in at least 10 games.

#18 With Lukas Dostal posting a .922 save percentage in 14 games, ranking fourth among goalies to play at least 10 games, it has been challenging for veteran John Gibson to reclaim his role in the crease for the Anaheim Ducks. Gibson has been playing well since returning from injury, though, putting up a 4-0-1 record with a .919 save percentage in five starts. If Gibson is playing at a high level, that could increase his likelihood of finally getting traded and there are teams that might be ready to pull the trigger for a veteran goaltender who could use a fresh start with a team that has better defensive structure.

#19 Speaking of teams that might have goaltending concerns, the Carolina Hurricanes have Pyotr Kochetkov in concussion protocol and Frederik Andersen is out long-term following knee surgery. That leaves Spencer Martin and Yaniv Perets in net for the ‘Canes. Martin has a .856 save percentage in seven games for Carolina this season while Perets has 13 minutes of NHL experience and had a .825 save percentage in three AHL games when he was called up. If Kochetkov recovers quickly, the Hurricanes may be able to survive, because they are the best puck possession team in the league, but if he is out long-term, the Hurricanes may need to look for an external solution to their goaltending problem.

#20 Through 360 games in this season, there is an average of 6.13 goals per game, but there has not been a huge advantage for being the home side, with home teams averaging 3.125 goals per game while road teams have 3.008. For fantasy managers, particularly those making daily roster decisions, this suggests not to be overly discouraged if a player happens to be on the road, because it should not have a significant effect on a player’s likely production.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (November 11th to 18th, 2024) – Winnipeg and Florida dominate

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 09 Nov 2024 18:45:55 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 10: Florida Panthers Right Wing Sam Reinhart (13) before a face-off during third period National Hockey League action between the Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators on October 10, 2024, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

The Colorado Avalanche have problems, as I’ve discussed in previous articles, but going into Thursday’s action those issues hadn’t extended to their core players. In fact, defenseman Cale Makar opened the campaign with a 13-game scoring streak in which he provided five goals and 23 points, and after an injury scare, he was available for Thursday’s tilt against Winnipeg and ended up logging an impressive 25:16 of ice time.

Against every other team, Makar and Nathan MacKinnon, who took his own 13-game scoring streak into Thursday’s action, would have done some damage even if they hadn’t come away with the win. Winnipeg has been in a league of its own, though, especially with Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes. The goaltender shrugged off the Avalanche’s 35 shots to earn his second consecutive shutout, bringing him up to a 10-1-0 record, 1.91 GAA and .932 save percentage through 11 starts.

Hellebuyck being an amazing goaltender is old news. There’s a reason why Winnipeg inked him to a seven-year, $59.5 million contract that began this season -- a contract that’s looking increasingly good, especially with the way the goaltender market is heading. However, the Jets under new bench boss Scott Arniel are giving him more defensive support than he’s accustomed to. The Jets have an xGA/60 of 2.49, per Moneypuck, the second-best in the league. By contrast, Winnipeg ranked 10th last year with a 2.93 xGA/60. That suggests the quality of the shots making their way to Hellebuyck has gotten significantly lower, making it easier for the netminder to do his job. That might also be why Winnipeg is also 3-0-0 on the nights that journeyman goaltender Eric Comrie has started instead.

Winnipeg’s dominance doesn’t end there, though. The Jets rank first in goals per game with 4.50, which is a feat they’ve accomplished in part through depth. Kyle Connor (nine goals, 19 points), Mark Scheifele (seven goals, 18 points) and Gabriel Vilardi (six goals, 12 points) can compromise an amazing top line, and that still leaves you with the luxury of putting Nikolaj Ehlers (eight goals, 17 points) on the second line and a red-hot Nino Niederreiter (seven goals, 12 points) on the third unit to exhaust the enemy’s defense. It is worth noting that Moneypuck ranks Winnipeg 21st in xG/60 with 2.99, so there’s an argument to be made that the Jets have enjoyed good puck luck, and they haven’t endured anything close to the same kind of injury issues that a team like Colorado has.

It's also worth remembering the cautionary tale of the 2007-08 Ottawa Senators, who started 13-1-0 but faltered after that, finishing 43-31-8 and being swept in the first round of the playoffs. That said, there isn’t a lot of sample size when it comes to 13-1-0 starts. Ottawa showed that even a start as hot as this doesn’t guarantee success, but that doesn’t mean a fall from grace is inevitable either. And sure, maybe the Jets’ offense won’t continue to perform at this level, but if the defense stays effective and Hellebuyck remains healthy, then Winnipeg won’t necessarily need that much goal production. This is a strong team, potentially far stronger than analysts rated the Jets to be going into the campaign, and they’ll certainly be one to watch going forward.

While some might still view the Jets as a team with something to prove even after starting 13-1-0, not many would question Florida’s 10-3-1 start. Back-to-back trips to the finals, including a Stanley Cup championship, affords you a great deal of faith. That’s not to say every player on the team receives that level of belief, though. Sam Reinhart is probably raising some eyebrows after scoring 11 goals and 22 points through 14 games. Sure, he had 57 goals and 94 points in 82 appearances in 2023-24, but his 24.5 shooting percentage was insanely high, so it must have been a fluke, right?

Those who read my articles from last year would know I pushed back against the assumption that his high shooting percentage was unsustainable.

More specifically, this is what I said about Reinhart back in January: “His shooting percentage of 27.5 is by far the highest of any player with at least 100 shots -- next is Brock Boeser at 23.3 -- and more than double his 2022-23 finish of 13.7. Digging a little deeper, Reinhart is selective with when he shoots, firing 40.4 percent in high-danger areas. By contrast, Nikita Kucherov has nearly the same number of goals (28) while firing nearly double the shots (amounting to a 15.4 shooting percentage), but just 18.1 percent of his shots are in high-danger locations, so by that measure, Reinhart’s higher shooting percentage makes some sense.”

This year tells a somewhat similar story. Of his 39 shots, 13 (33.3 percent) have been in high-danger areas while another 12 (30.8 percent) have been mid-range. By contrast, Nikita Kucherov, who has 11 goals on 54 shots has fired 12 (22.2 percent) in high-danger areas and 16 (29.6) at mid-range. In other words, while someone like Kucherov fires more shots than Reinhart, they end up with a similar number of high-quality shots, so there’s logic behind Reinhart’s high shooting percentage, making it less of a warning sign than it would be for some other players.

Carolina Hurricanes (Mon @ VGK, Wed @ UTA, Sat vs OTT, Sun vs STL)

The Hurricanes have done nearly as well as the Jets, posting a 10-2-0 record after Thursday’s 5-1 victory over Pittsburgh. Carolina will open the week with a challenging road match versus Vegas, but the schedule gets more manageable after that with a road game against Utah on Wednesday followed by home contests versus Ottawa and St. Louis on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Carolina is still without Frederik Andersen (lower body), and there’s no guarantee he’ll be an option next week, so Spencer Martin might make his season debut. The 29-year-old is far from an ideal choice, but Carolina is one of the most goaltender-friendly teams in the league, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Martin walk away with the win if he faces the Senators or Blues.

That’ll be especially true if Martin Necas remains hot. He’s on an eight-game scoring streak in which he’s provided six goals and 18 points. Necas took a step back last season with a 53-point showing, but he’s a good bet to rebound with the second 70-plus point campaign of his career. Just don’t count on him maintaining anything close to his current point-per-game pace, which stands at 1.75 (21 points in 12 outings). Necas has been impressive, but he’s unlikely to finish 2024-25 among the league’s scoring leaders. To give you some perspective, he had seven goals and 17 points through 11 appearances in 2022-23 and finished that campaign outside the top-50 in the scoring race despite logging the full 82 games.

Moving from the Hurricanes’ top offensive performer to a physical defenseman, Riley Stillman (lower body) will likely make his Hurricanes debut soon. He had a goal, eight points, 81 hits and 44 blocks in 50 outings between Vancouver and Buffalo in 2023-24. His presence won’t dramatically alter Carolina’s blue line, but we might see Sean Walker be an infrequent healthy scratch after dressing in all of the team’s first 12 games. Maybe Jalen Chatfield will end up being a scratch at some point too if everyone is healthy, though I suspect Walker’s position in the lineup is less secure.

Nashville Predators (Mon @ COL, Thu @ EDM, Fri @ CGY, Sun @ VAN)

Not secure describes the Predators pretty well. Nashville GM Barry Trotz even recently floated the idea of beginning the team’s rebuild plan if the team doesn’t start turning around -- a move that would be awkward after signing veterans Steven Stamkos to a four-year, $32 million contract and Jonathan Marchessault to a five-year, $27.5 million deal over the summer.

All the same, you can hardly blame Trotz for thinking that way after the club’s 4-9-1 start. Perhaps next week will offer more hope, though it would have to come on the road. The Predators will play in Colorado on Monday, Edmonton on Thursday, Calgary on Friday and Vancouver on Sunday.

Stamkos is finally showing life, providing three goals and six points across his past six games after being limited to one point (a goal) over his opening eight appearances. The problem is no other Predators player has stepped up recently -- outside of Stamkos, every Nashville skater has recorded three or fewer points over the team’s past six games.

Then there’s Juuse Saros, who is leaving plenty to be desired with a 3-7-1 record, 2.85 GAA and .904 save percentage in 11 outings. You might be wondering if his mediocre numbers are a reflection of struggles on his end or just a byproduct of poor play in front of him. Nashville ranks 24th in xGA/60 at 3.27 while Saros’ goals saved above expected is plus-3.9, which suggests Saros has been doing fine, but the Predators have been letting him down. If there’s any silver lining to be had there, it suggests that if Nashville can start tightening up defensively, then Saros will reward his teammates by putting up the kind of elite numbers we know he’s capable of. Imagining that scenario, though, might just be an exercise in wishful thinking.

Philadelphia Flyers (Mon vs SJS, Thu @ OTT, Sat vs BUF)

The Flyers haven’t been much better than Nashville, though Philadelphia doesn’t have the same burden of expectations. Either way, the 5-8-1 Flyers have a favorable set of adversaries ahead of them. They’ll host the Sharks on Monday, play in Ottawa on Thursday and conclude the week with a home game versus the Sabres on Saturday.

Samuel Ersson (lower body) and Aleksei Kolosov (lower body) weren’t able to play Thursday, which left Ivan Fedotov, who had a 5.35 GAA and an .821 save percentage through his first three starts, to get the nod against Tampa Bay while Kyle Konin signed an amateur tryout to be the emergency backup. Despite those challenging circumstances, Philadelphia earned a 2-1 shootout victory over the Lightning, but I wouldn’t count on seeing continued success out of Fedotov if Ersson and Kolosov remain on the sidelines. Not that I have much confidence in any of the Flyers’ current goaltenders.

To be fair, the Flyers’ netminders get sparse goal support even when they manage to put forth a strong showing. Philadelphia ranks 27th offensively with 2.50 goals per game. Matvei Michkov has been one of the Flyers’ few scoring threats with four goals and 10 points in 13 outings, but coach John Tortorella hasn’t been thrilled with the 19-year-old forward’s five-on-five play -- note that Michkov is minus-8 and only three of his points have come at even strength -- which led to him being a healthy scratch Thursday. It’s also worth noting that his production has slowed recently, resulting in him registering just an assist over his past five outings.

Michkov is still young, so some growing pains are expected, and with Tortorella certainly not being afraid to mix some tough love into his teaching regime, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the occasional healthy scratch sprinkled in there as the campaign progresses. Taking a step back, a reasonable project for Michkov’s rookie season would be about 50 points.

Pittsburgh Penguins (Mon vs DAL, Wed vs DET, Fri @ CBJ, Sat vs SJS)

Sidney Crosby is continuing to defy his age, but it hasn’t been enough. Pittsburgh is 5-8-2, putting more pressure on the squad to start to right the ship. The Penguins are set to host Dallas and Detroit on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. They’ll then play in Columbus on Friday and round out the week by hosting the Sharks on Saturday.

Cody Glass (upper body) was put on injured reserve Friday while Bryan Rust (lower body) was activated, enabling him to return to the lineup after a five-game absence.

As I already alluded to, Crosby has continued to dominate in Rust’s absence -- Crosby has six goals and 15 points through 15 appearances in 2024-25 -- but Rust is nevertheless likely to rejoin the top line. That would probably result in Evgeni Malkin moving off the top unit to his more standard position headlining the second line. For what it’s worth, Malkin and Crosby have shown up on the scoresheet together for just two even-strength goals this season, and Malkin has been quiet lately with a goal and two points across his past five games. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has lost its last two games, along with six of its past eight, so it’s not like there are circumstances on a team level or a line level that would compel head coach Mike Sullivan to keep Malkin and Crosby together in five-on-five play at this time.

At the other end of the ice, the goaltending situation continues to be a question mark. Alex Nedeljkovic gave the Penguins hope with strong starts against the lowly Ducks and Canadiens, but he’s faded quickly, allowing eight goals on 44 shots (.818 save percentage) over his past two losses to the Islanders and Hurricanes. Meanwhile, Tristan Jarry has been rebuilding his confidence in the minors, posting a 1.69 GAA and a .946 save percentage across four games with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. Perhaps Jarry will get recalled soon and get another shot? Just as the Crosby-Malkin duo hasn’t done anything to force Sullivan to keep them together, Nedeljkovic’s play isn’t great enough to secure the No. 1 job, so the possibility of a Jarry comeback remains.

Seattle Kraken (Tue vs CBJ, Thu vs CHI, Sat vs NYI, Sun vs NYR)

The Kraken will stay at home next week, hosting the Blue Jackets on Tuesday, the Blackhawks on Thursday, the Islanders on Saturday and finally the Rangers on Sunday. We’ll see if that homestand will right the ship for Seattle, which has lost four straight games and seven of its last eight contests, dropping to 5-8-1.

Seattle has managed just 2.25 goals per game across its last eight matches, but interestingly, there have been some standout performers over that stretch. Jared McCann and Matty Beniers have each managed three goals and eight points during Seattle’s slump while defenseman Brandon Montour has contributed three goals and six points in that span.

The problem is other players you’d expect to do well have fallen short. Oliver Bjorkstrand is the most notable example of that. He set a career high with 59 points last season but has just three goals and five points through 13 appearances in 2024-25 and is heading in the wrong direction with a goal and an assist across his past eight outings. Those struggles reached a possible crescendo when he was scratched Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see if he uses that time in the press box to reset.

Jordan Eberle and Eeli Tolvanen need to rebound too. They have managed just two and three points, respectively, over Seattle’s past eight games. Neither is a major offensive threat, but they are important secondary scorers for the Kraken and lately, they have failed to fulfill that role.

Some of those cold stretches would have been swept under the rug if Shane Wright was adapting to the NHL, but the No. 4 overall pick from the 2022 NHL Draft has been disappointing thus far, providing just a goal and two points through 14 games in 2024-25. I wonder if he might benefit from a stint in the press box of his own. Either way, it’s impossible to recommend him at this time in standard leagues, but I will at least say the potential remains there, so he’s worth keeping an eye on. If you want a silver lining, you could say that the Kraken’s overall offensive struggles do open the door to Wright landing a top six spot if only he could start producing.

St. Louis Blues (Tue vs BOS, Thu @ BUF, Fri @ BOS, Sun @ CAR)

The Blues have a busy week ahead of them, but the competition isn’t the easiest. They’ll host the Bruins on Tuesday before heading on the road to play in Buffalo on Thursday, Boston on Saturday and Carolina on Sunday.

We could all breathe a sigh of relief after Dylan Holloway avoided serious injury after a scary incident Tuesday when he was hit by a high puck and taken away on a stretcher. He even managed to play in St. Louis’ very next game. His former Oilers teammate who came with him to St. Louis, though, will be out for a while.

Philip Broberg suffered a lower-body injury Saturday and is expected to miss the next 4-6 weeks. Broberg had been making the most of the increased role the Blues gave him, providing two goals and nine points through 12 appearances while averaging 19:34 of ice time. St. Louis is also missing Torey Krug (ankle) for the 2024-25 campaign and Nick Leddy (lower body), though at least in Leddy’s case, he might be back in the not-too-distant future.

Absences have likely contributed to Ryan Suter playing a bigger role than initially envisioned. Although he an insanely big minutes eater in his prime, Suter dipped below 20 minutes per game in 2023-24 for the first time since his rookie campaign, averaging 18:56 of ice time with Dallas. The 39-year-old initially looked like he would have a strictly supporting role with St. Louis in 2024-25, averaging just 16:02 across the Blues’ opening four games. Then Leddy got hurt, and Suter has averaged 23:53 since. Don’t be surprised if Suter’s ice time takes a notable hit once Leddy is back, though until Broberg is healthy too, Suter will probably still see at least decent minutes.

Leddy’s eventual return might also make things a little easier on Blues goaltenders Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer. Neither netminder has gotten off to a good start, though Binnington has been encouraging recently. He’s still just 4-5-0 with a 2.78 GAA and a .904 save percentage in 10 outings overall, but he’s saved 75 of 81 shots (.926 save percentage) across his past three games. Going into the season, it looked like Hofer might challenge Binnington for the starting gig, but that hasn’t happened yet to any major extent, and Binnington’s recent success helps put more distance between the two.

Vancouver Canucks (Tue vs CGY, Thu vs NYI, Sat vs CHI, Sun vs NSH)

Vancouver is on a three-game winning streak, bringing the Canucks up to 7-2-3. They’ll look to continue that success next week with home games against Calgary on Tuesday, the Islanders on Thursday, Chicago on Saturday and Nashville on Sunday.

While things are going well for the Canucks overall, the same can’t be said for Elias Pettersson. He has two goals and five points across 12 appearances in 2024-25. He did discuss his slump last week, and unfortunately, not much has changed since with Pettersson providing one point (a goal) over his past three games despite Vancouver combining for a solid 12 goals during that stretch.

One thing I didn’t bring up then is Pettersson’s shot total, which is concerning low at 22, which translates to 5.7 shots per 60 minutes, a drop from 7.7 last year. That’s despite having one six-shot game in 2024-25 -- he also has been held to a single shot on seven occasions. He also has just 52 shot attempts, which is 4.3 per game, down from 4.9 in 2023-24.

I went to dig a bit deeper, and one thing that stood out to me is that his skating metrics are down from last year, and the same can be said about his shot speed. In terms of shot location, 60 of his 207 in 2023-24 were high danger, translating to roughly 29 percent while he has nine of 22 (40.9 percent) in high-danger locations this campaign, so at least when he is shooting the location is generally good, but still, some of those other metrics are concerning.

Pettersson is still just 25, so unless he’s playing hurt, I don’t think it’s fair to believe there isn’t a physical reason for his drop in play. Instead, it’s likely to be mental, which is a theory that gains credibility when you consider former Canucks head coach Bruce Boudreau’s analysis of the situation, per the Vancouver Province. Boudreau noted that Pettersson “doesn’t look excited when he plays and gets frustrated very easily.” Perhaps the pressure of his eight-year, $92.8 million contract, which he’s in the first season of, is getting to the star forward.

Whatever the case, other members of the Canucks have been picking up the slack. Not much was expected of Conor Garland going into the campaign, but he’s been great, providing four goals and 11 points through 12 appearances. That probably won’t last, but he isn’t showing signs of slowing down yet after recording at least a point in each of his past three games. Defenseman Quinn Hughes is also red hot, supplying a goal and five points over his last two outings, bringing him up to three goals and 14 points in 12 appearances this season.

Vegas Golden Knights (Mon vs CAR, Wed @ ANA, Fri @ UTA, Sun vs WSH)

The Golden Knights will start the upcoming week by hosting the Hurricanes, but after that, they’ll have to take to the road. Vegas will play in Anaheim on Wednesday, Utah on Friday and Washington on Sunday.

The Golden Knights have won six of their past seven games, elevating their record to 9-3-1. The top line of Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev continues to be a major part of that with Stone leading the way with six goals and 21 points in 13 outings. The 32-year-old Stone is on a seven-game scoring streak (four goals,12 points) and has been held off the scoresheet just once in 2024-25.

It also helps to have a player of Tomas Hertl’s caliber on the second unit, who has four goals and 12 points through 13 outings. Meanwhile, Noah Hanifin is red hot from the blue line with three goals and eight points across his past two games.

Those two really highlight the amazing sticking power Vegas has managed thanks to its aggressive trade strategy. Those are two veterans who were added during the 2023-24 campaign and are locked up to 2027-28. Other teams add rental pieces leading up to a Cup run, but the Golden Knights tend to take a longer view when making trades, so even when a postseason run doesn’t work out, as was the case in 2024, the additions they made are still around to help them moving forward.

Eventually, the bottom might fall out of this strategy. In the cap era, we haven’t seen a team that has been able to sustain itself indefinitely on trades alone without going through a rebuild. But when you look at the team’s core of Eichel, Stone, Hertl, Barbashev, William Karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo, Noah Hanifin and Shea Theodore, you’re seeing a group that’s still largely in its prime and positioned to potentially be competitive for years to come.

The one thing that the group is missing is a star goaltender. Adin Hill can be solid, but he also has his rough patches, and the 2024-25 campaign has been more miss than hit for him so far, leaving Hill with a 3.01 GAA and an .882 save percentage through eight outings. On the plus side, he’s allowed just five goals on 64 shots (.922 save percentage) across his past three starts, and the Golden Knights are strong enough offensively to put him in a position to win even when he doesn’t have a great night, so there’s still plenty of value to be had here.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (March 18th to 24th) – Detroit in late season collapse, need to turn it around fast – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 16 Mar 2024 17:18:48 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 04: Detroit Red Wings right wing Patrick Kane (88) skates with the puck during an NHL hockey game against the Los Angeles Kings on January 4, 2024 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)

For much of the season, it looked like Detroit was going to make the playoffs. As recently as Feb. 27, the Red Wings were 33-20-6 with an eight-point cushion in the fight for a wild-card spot. After dropping seven straight games, though, Detroit finds itself tied with the Islanders for the second wild-card seed, and the Red Wings’ situation is even worse because they’ve played one game more than New York. Meanwhile, Washington is just one point behind the Islanders and Red Wings, putting further pressure on Detroit.

Goaltending has played a big part in Detroit’s collapse. Alex Lyon was having a strong season, posting a 17-8-2 record, 2.68 GAA and .916 save percentage across 27 contests through Feb. 24. However, Lyon has allowed at least three goals in each of his last seven appearances, resulting in an ugly .856 save percentage in that span. However, Ville Husso (lower body) is still unavailable, and James Reimer has a 6-7-2 record, 3.09 GAA and .903 save percentage in 19 contests this campaign, so the Red Wings don’t have a good alternative to pivot to during Lyon’s struggles.

To be fair, it’s not just Lyon. Detroit has managed just 1.71 goals per game during its losing streak. Patrick Kane and Lucas Raymond have each managed just three points over that seven-game span. Alex DeBrincat has no goals and one assist in the same stretch. Those are key forwards for Detroit, so for them all to go cold at the same time is disastrous.

The Red Wings could still rebound and make the postseason, but they need to do it soon. Otherwise, this season will go down as one of the most painful late season collapses for a team in recent memory.

Carolina Hurricanes – TUE @ NYI, THU VS PHI, FRI @ WAS (BTB), SUN VS TOR

The Hurricanes’ playoff spot is all but guaranteed, but Carolina is still chasing the Rangers in the battle for the Metropolitan Division title. They’ll continue that pursuit next week starting with a road game against the Islanders on Tuesday. After that, Carolina will host the Flyers on Thursday, play in Washington on Friday and conclude with a home contest versus the Maple Leafs on Sunday.

The Hurricanes are pretty healthy right now and even have Frederik Andersen back after missing roughly four months due to a blood clotting issue. He’s been fantastic since returning, posting a 3-0-0 record, 1.01 GAA and .955 save percentage across three starts. Carolina has been rotating between him and Pyotr Kochetkov, who has saved 46 of 49 shots (.939 save percentage) over his last two contests, bringing him to 17-12-3 with a 2.35 GAA and a .911 save percentage through 34 appearances this season.

Andersen and Kochetkov are likely to split the workload for the remainder of the season, which doesn’t leave much of a role for Spencer Martin. It wouldn’t be surprising if Martin accepts a brief AHL conditioning stint in a week or two for the sake of staying fresh ahead of the playoffs. Although he’s certainly far from Carolina’s first choice going forward, it’s still helpful to have him as a fallback plan should the Hurricanes run into injury troubles.

Jake Guentzel (upper body) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (personal) have also returned and made their Hurricanes debuts after being acquired from Pittsburgh and Washington, respectively. The duo appears set to play together on the second line, providing the Hurricanes with scoring threats outside of the Andrei Svechnikov-Sebastian Aho-Teuvo Teravainen trio.

Kuznetsov has just seven goals and 18 points in 47 contests this season, but there’s potential here for him to mesh nicely with Guentzel, especially as the two settle into their new roles. If Kuznetsov is available in your fantasy league, he’s not a bad forward to take a chance on.

Colorado Avalanche – TUE @ STL, FRI VS CBJ, SUN VS PIT

The battle for the Central Division title could come down to the wire with Colorado, Dallas and Winnipeg all legitimate contenders for the top spot. The Avalanche can make things easier for themselves in that race by sweeping their relatively light competition next week. They’ll play in St. Louis on Tuesday before hosting the Blue Jackets on Friday and the Penguins on Sunday. None of those adversaries are in a playoff position, though St. Louis and Pittsburgh still have outside shots of squeaking into a wild-card slot.

There has been news recently when it comes to Gabriel Landeskog’s recovery from cartilage transplant surgery on his right knee. As Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports, the 31-year-old might return during the 2024 playoffs, but it’s far from guaranteed. Keep in mind that he’ll be just 10 months into his 12-16 month timetable come May and while the Avalanche aren’t ruling anything out, they also don’t want to rush him back and risk making things worse.

He will surely be on the back of fantasy managers’ minds going into playoff league drafts. When healthy, Landeskog is a top-tier forward and the Avalanche are legitimate Cup contenders, so under normal circumstances, he’d be highly sought after. You should heavily temper your expectations, though. At most, you could take him toward the end of the draft, and even then, only if you’re comfortable with the very real possibility that he ends up not contributing anything.

In the meantime, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen are continuing to dominate with 14 and 12 points, respectively, over the Avalanche’s last five games alone. MacKinnon is up to 42 goals and 115 points through 67 games as he pursues both the Art Ross and Hart Trophies.

Casey Mittelstadt has settled into a second-line role and has provided a goal and an assist in three games since being acquired by Buffalo. Obviously, he’s not playing with MacKinnon and Rantanen at even strength, but Mittelstadt doesn’t seem to be with the superstar duo on the power play either, instead going out with the second unit. That meaningfully hinders Mittelstadt’s value going forward.

Dallas Stars – WED VS ARI, FRI VS PIT, SUN @ ARI

As noted above, Dallas is in the battle for the Central Division title. Like the Avalanche, Dallas’ upcoming competition is fairly easy. Dallas will start with home games against the Coyotes and the Penguins on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, before traveling to Arizona for a contest Sunday.

Unlike Colorado, which made a big splash in the Mittelstadt for Bowen Byram trade, Dallas had a relatively quiet trade deadline, though the Stars were able to get some business done before it, acquiring defenseman Chris Tanev from Calgary on Feb. 28. Dallas is also looking to get some reinforcements back soon in Tyler Seguin (lower body) and Evgenii Dadonov (lower body), both of which might return next week.

When Seguin returns, Sam Steel will likely find himself moving out of a top-nine role, but what’s harder to gauge is where Dadonov fits in. After scoring 24 goals and 57 points in 47 AHL contests, Logan Stankoven made his NHL debut Feb. 24 and has gone on to record five goals and eight points in 10 outings. If the 21-year-old can continue to produce, then removing him from his third-line spot would seem counterproductive. However, there is no other obvious candidate outside of Steel (who would get bumped for Seguin’s return) to remove from the top nine, so when everyone is healthy, Dadonov might find himself on the fourth unit.

A fourth line of Dadonov, Steel and Radek Faksa is a level of luxury most teams could only dream of, but that trio likely won’t get enough playing time to have any fantasy value. It does put pressure on Stankoven, though -- if he has a prolonged cold stretch, he could find his minutes drop dramatically given the intense competition in Dallas.

Edmonton Oilers – TUE VS MTL, THU VS BUF, SAT @ TOR, SUN @ OTT (BTB)

Edmonton has had some incredible highs and lows this campaign, but when all is done, it now looks like the Oilers will finish with the second seed in the Pacific Division. However, that’s not guaranteed, so Edmonton needs to continue to get results in the upcoming week. Fortunately for the Oilers, their upcoming competition isn’t the strongest. They’ll host Montreal on Tuesday and Buffalo on Thursday before hitting the road to play in Toronto on Saturday and Ottawa on Sunday. The Maple Leafs are set to make the playoffs, but their other three adversaries have an eye toward the draft lottery.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are unsurprisingly continuing to headline the Oilers’ offense. McDavid has an incredible 25 points (four goals) in his past 13 games while Draisaitl has four tallies and 13 points in his last seven appearances.

Edmonton did try to diversify its offense with the addition of Adam Henrique, but the former Ducks forward has just one assist in four contests with the Oilers. He’s serving primarily on the third line and second power-play unit, so he’s not sharing the ice with Edmonton’s superstars. Unless that changes, Henrique’s fantasy value with the Oilers is likely to be somewhat limited.

This might be a good week for goaltender Calvin Pickard, though. The backup netminder has been rotating with starter Stuart Skinner recently and the results have been positive with Pickard saving 93 of 97 shots (.959 save percentage) over his last three starts. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Oilers continue to give Pickard a decent share of the workload in the short term. It’ll help keep Skinner fresh for the playoffs, and Pickard has earned the increased responsibilities with his 9-4-0 record, 2.27 GAA and .919 save percentage across 14 outings in 2023-24.

New Jersey Devils – TUE VS PIT, THU VS WPG, SAT VS OTT, SUN @ NYI (BTB)

The Devils’ playoff hopes aren’t completely gone, but they’re running out of time to close the gap. New Jersey will spend most of the upcoming week at home, playing against the Penguins on Tuesday, the Jets on Thursday and the Senators on Saturday. They’ll finish the week with a road contest against the Islanders.

Timo Meier has done the most lately to keep New Jersey’s postseason dream alive. Although his 19 goals and 36 points through 53 games this season represent a substantial decline from his 40 tallies and 66 points in 78 contests in 2022-23, he’s excelled recently. Meier’s contributed nine goals and 14 points over his past 10 appearances and has found the back of the net in six of his last seven outings.

Of course, the Devils’ main problem this campaign has been defensive, not its scoring. To that end, New Jersey did add goaltenders Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen at the deadline. Kahkonen made his Devils debut Monday, saving 23 of 25 shots against a tough opponent in the Rangers, though New Jersey didn’t provide him with enough support and lost 3-1 anyway. Allen then made his first Devils start Thursday, turning aside 35 of 37 shots en route to a 6-2 victory over Dallas.

That duo is likely to split the workload the rest of the way. It’s worth warning, though, that to say the Devils had poor goaltending would be to tell only half the tale. The defense in front of those netminders hasn’t done its job either. New Jersey has an xGA/60 of 3.22, which is tied for 23rd in the league, so don’t expect Allen or Kahkonen to put up great numbers in the long run.

Tampa Bay Lightning – TUE @ VGK, THU @ SJS, SAT @ LAK, SUN @ ANA (BTB)

Tampa Bay is unlikely to climb into the top three of the Atlantic Division race, but the Lightning are in a strong position to make the playoffs in a wild-card spot. They’ll continue that fight next week while visiting Vegas on Tuesday, San Jose on Thursday, Los Angeles on Saturday and Anaheim on Sunday. The Kings and the Golden Knights are tough opponents, but the Sharks and the Ducks sit in the league’s basement.

Nikita Kucherov has continued his season-long battle with Nathan MacKinnon for the Art Ross and Hart Trophies. Kucherov is behind the Avalanche star in that race, but just barely with 39 goals and 112 points to MacKinnon’s 42 markers and 115 points. Kucherov is riding a nine-game scoring streak in which he’s supplied three goals and 18 points, so he certainly hasn’t let up.

While MacKinnon has Mikko Rantanen as his complementary forward in the battle, Kucherov has Brayden Point. The 28-year-old Lightning forward was especially effective Thursday, providing a hat trick and six points, bringing Point up to 36 tallies and 73 points in 66 appearances in 2023-24.

Victor Hedman has shined recently too with two goals and six points over his last three games. He’s up to 12 goals and 66 points in 64 contests, which is good for third in the defensemen scoring race behind Cale Makar (73 points) and Quinn Hughes (76).

Of course, those are all headline players with Tampa Bay. One contributor who doesn’t get that level of attention is Anthony Duclair. The Lightning acquired him from San Jose on March 7 and the 28-year-old has gotten off to a good start, providing two goals and three points in two contests with the Lightning. That brings him up to 18 goals and 30 points in 58 appearances this year. Tampa Bay has deployed him at times with Steven Stamkos as well as the Point-Kucherov duo, so Duclair could be in line for a strong finish to the campaign.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE @ PHI, WED @ WAS, SAT VS EDM, SUN @ CAR

Toronto is pretty much set at this point. They do have an outside shot of competing for the first or second seeds in the Atlantic Division but barring a complete collapse or a stunning hot streak, Toronto will almost certainly finish the campaign in the division’s third position. Still, the Leafs will look to stay sharp next week. They’ll play in Philadelphia on Tuesday and Washington on Wednesday before hosting the Oilers on Saturday. Toronto will then conclude the week with a road game versus the Hurricanes on Sunday.

The big question mark regarding the Maple Leafs is the health of Mitchell Marner. He’s dealing with a high-ankle sprain, which is concerning, but Toronto considers it to be a mild variant. Still, he’s set to miss his third straight game Saturday. Given Toronto doesn’t have a lot left to fight for until the playoffs, there isn’t any compelling reason to have him play at anything under 100 percent, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Toronto exercises an abundance of caution when determining his availability going forward.

As long as Marner is unavailable, who plays alongside Auston Matthews remains somewhat in flux. Calle Jarnkrok and Tyler Bertuzzi were his linemates initially Thursday, but Jarnkrok suffered a hand injury and is considered week-to-week. That creates a potential opening for Pontus Holmberg to play on the first unit, which would give him some short-term fantasy value.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on how Nick Robertson is used. He’s been limited to eight goals and 19 points in 41 contests this season but has averaged just 11:22 of ice time and hasn’t even dressed for Toronto since Feb. 29. However, Robertson does have some offensive upside, and the Leafs’ recent injuries might create a new opportunity for him.

Winnipeg Jets – TUE @ NYR, THU @ NJD, SAT @ NYI, SUN @ WAS (BTB)

As noted above, the Jets are competing with Colorado and Dallas for the top seed in the Central Division. The Jets will continue that pursuit next week while playing on the road against the Rangers on Tuesday, New Jersey on Thursday, the Islanders on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.

Gabriel Vilardi has unfortunately been diagnosed with an enlarged spleen. There’s no timetable for his recovery, and we just have to hope that his recovery will go smoothly for him, and after this, he’ll be able to put it behind him.

When he’s healthy, there’s a fair chance Vilardi will play alongside Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele on the first line. As long as he’s unavailable, though, that spot will likely be occupied by Alex Iafallo, who has done well recently, providing two goals and three points in his past four games, which brings him up to 10 goals and 23 points in 65 contests in 2023-24. Iafallo might be worth taking a chance on while he’s playing on the first unit, but even in that role, you shouldn’t expect too much from him.

In the long run, the Jets will probably get more offensive production out of Tyler Toffoli, who is serving on the second line after being acquired from New Jersey on March 8. He has 26 goals and 44 points in 63 outings this season. Toffoli was held off the scoresheet in his first two games with Winnipeg, but it shouldn’t be too long before he starts to find his way with his new team, especially because he’s seeing time on the first power-play unit.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Kraken Delivering Fantasy Targets plus much, much more.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 02 Dec 2022 18:17:08 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, look West, where the Seattle Kraken have won seven straight games and are chock full of productive players that are still widely available for fantasy hockey managers. From rookie Matty Beniers to veteran defenseman Justin Schultz and several points in between, the Kraken are a team to target.

SEATTLE, WA - NOVEMBER 11: Seattle Kraken center Matty Beniers (10) skates during an NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and the Seattle Kraken on November 11, 2022 at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Jeff Halstead/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Calder Trophy front-runner Matty Beniers is stepping up as the No. 1 center for the Seattle Kraken. The second pick in the 2020 Draft, Beniers has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) during a six-game point streak. He is not a huge shot generator, with two shots or fewer in 20 of 23 games, so that is an area that might need some work if he is going to maintain his current goal-scoring pace of 10 goals in 23 games. Otherwise, Beniers will need to keep scoring on 23.3% of his shots and that is not a reasonable expectation.

#2 Veteran Seattle Kraken right winger Jordan Eberle had a slow start to the season, managing no goals and four assists through his first eight games, but he has put up 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in his past 15 games. Eberle has not had a 50-point season since 2017-2018, but he has found a good fit on a line with Beniers and Jared McCann.

#3 In his past 15 games, Seattle Kraken left winger Jared McCann has produced 13 points (9 G, 4 A). He has scored 37 goals in 94 games since joining the Kraken in the expansion draft. While McCann, like Beniers, is not likely to keep scoring on 23.3% of his shots, as he has this season, this line is helping the Kraken generate significantly more offense than they did last season. The Kraken have 3.75 goals per 60 minutes this season, which ranks third. Last season, they ranked 28th with 2.58 goals per 60 minutes.

#4 It is hard to put too many expectations on a forward who is playing 10 minutes per game, but Seattle seems to have found right way to deploy Daniel Sprong. Even in limited ice time, Sprong has produced 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in 16 games. He does contribute on the power play, but he is also generating even-strength offense. The leaders in points per 60 minutes during five-on-five play (minimum 100 minutes): Morgan Geekie (3.78), Matthew Tkachuk (3.72), Nico Hischier (3.68), Sprong (3.65), and Sidney Crosby (3.64).

#5 Seattle Kraken defenseman Justin Schultz last scored more than 27 points in a season in 2016-2017. He has always had good puck skills but has tended to fill a supporting role on the blueline for most of his teams. With the Kraken, Schultz runs the second power play unit, but he has quickly produced 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in his past seven games. Vince Dunn is still the Kraken defenseman on the No. 1 power play unit, but Schultz now leads the Kraken with seven power play assists.

#6 Vancouver Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko left Thursday’s loss to Florida with what looked like it could be a groin injury. It remains to be seen how long Demko will be out of the lineup, but Spencer Martin should be poised to play a more significant role with Demko out. Martin has a .900 save percentage in 10 games this season. That is a little below league average, but Martin’s 10 games played in the NHL this season already counts as a career high. The Canucks may be about to find out just how ready Martin is for NHL action.

#7 An old rookie making the transition from the KHL, Vancouver Canucks winger Andrei Kuzmenko is 26 years old. He has also been on a tear in recent weeks, putting up 10 points (4 G, 6 A) in the past seven games. He has scored on 22.0% of his shots this season, so Kuzmenko could use more shots to make his offense more sustainable, but he is establishing his value as a quality complementary piece on a line with Elias Pettersson and Ilya Mikheyev.

#8 Winnipeg Jets rookie winger Cole Perfetti is climbing in the rookie scoring race, with six points (1 G, 5 A) in the past five games giving him 14 points (4 G, 10 A) on the season. He is now skating on Winnipeg’s top line, with Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, and has upped his shot rate, generating 15 shots on goal in the past five games. He has tended to be a pass-first player, but if Perfetti can maintain the higher shot rate, there is a better chance for his goal totals to climb, too.

#9 The combination has worked for 36-year-old Jets right winger Blake Wheeler, who has put up 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in the past five games. Wheeler’s all-around game is not to the level that he displayed during his peak years, but he remains a productive offensive player. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, Wheeler has 126 points (39 G, 87 A) in 136 games, so even if this is the decline phase of his career, it is a very productive decline phase.

#10 Returning to the Boston Bruins after spending last season in Czechia, David Krejci has nine points (6 G, 3 A) during a six-game point streak. That gives him 18 points (8 G, 10 A) in 19 games, and it is worth noting that, for as successful as his career has been, the 36-year-old has never scored at a point-per-game clip for a full NHL season.

#11 Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly is going to be out until at least mid-December due to a knee injury which opens up more ice time, including on Toronto’s top power play, for Rasmus Sandin. Sandin has just two points (1 G, 1 A) in the past five games, but he has also averaged 21:26 of ice time per game in those five games, a major increase from the 16:42 per game that he was averaging previously.

#12 Pucks are not going in for him the way that they did last season, when he scored 23 goals in 79 games, but Toronto Maple Leafs left winger Michael Bunting is still contributing to Toronto’s top line. Bunting has nine points (2 G, 7 A) in the past nine games and, after trying out some other combinations, the Maple Leafs seem to have figured out that Bunting still fits in a complementary role on that No. 1 line alongside Auston Matthews.

#13 Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins struggled to a .864 save percentage in nine games before he landed on the injured list with a lower-body injury. Rookie netminder Daniil Tarasov has received a better opportunity with Merzlikins out and 23-year-old Tarasov has delivered a .912 save percentage in seven games. For fantasy managers, wins are not going to come easily in Columbus, but Tarasov is getting a chance to prove that he is ready for the NHL and is making the most of that opportunity.

#14 Usually, it seems like a dicey proposition when a team needs to turn to its third-string goaltender but that is not always the case. When the Toronto Maple Leafs had injuries to goaltenders Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray, Erik Kallgren stepped in to give the Maple Leafs solid play between the pipes. Even though Kallgren has a .898 save percentage in 10 games, in his last six starts, he had a 3-1-2 record with a .907 save percentage, which is entirely fine from a third-string goaltender.

#15 What is interesting is that coming into the season, Toronto’s goaltending was one of the major question marks and the tandem of Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray has been better than advertised. Perhaps it should be no surprise that they have missed time with injuries, but Samsonov has a .924 save percentage in nine games and Murray has a .927 save percentage in seven games. They have combined for a 12-3-1 record. While neither one is ideal for fantasy purposes, because they have not established that they can handle the workload of a true starting goaltender, both are entirely useful to plug in when they are healthy.

#16 He does not tend to score enough to be more than a banger league consideration, but Vegas Golden Knights left winger William Carrier is creating more offensively. In his past eight games, Carrier has scored five goals and recorded 22 hits, giving him 11 points (8 G, 3 A) and 64 hits in 24 games. Carrier has 1.76 goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play. Among players with at least 100 five-on-five minutes, these are the five players with a higher rate of goals per 60 minutes: Jason Robertson (2.11), Jared McCann (2.02), Elias Pettersson (1.88), Andrei Svechnikov (1.84), and Sidney Crosby (1.82).

#17 Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Kris Letang is out indefinitely after suffering the second stroke of his career. While this stroke is reportedly not as severe as the one that Letang suffered in 2014, it is understandable that the Penguins are going to be cautious with their long-time star blueliner before he has a chance to return to the ice. In the meantime, Jeff Petry will take over the point on Pittsburgh’s No. 1 power play unit. Petry has three assists in his past four games and has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in 24 games for the season. Combined with his big hit and blocked shot totals, Petry remains a valuable, yet frequently underrated, defenseman for fantasy purposes.

#18 The leader in shot attempts per 60 minutes during five-on-four play (minimum 30 minutes) is Los Angeles Kings right winger Arthur Kaliyev, who has 49.1 shot attempts per 60. That puts him ahead of Jason Robertson (48.0), Timo Meier (41.5), David Pastrnak (41.2), and Alex Ovechkin (39.3). Kaliyev pulling the trigger 25% more than Ovechkin on the power play is certainly a strategy. Kaliyev has 16 points (8 G, 8 A) in 25 games, and half of those points have come on the power play.

#19 While the spotlight does not shine brightly in Arizona, veteran defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and Jakob Chychrun are the Coyotes blueliners that draw the most attention. Don’t sleep on J.J. Moser, the second-year defenseman who has put up eight points (2 G, 6 A) while logging more than 23 minutes per game in the past 10 games.

#20 When the Montreal Canadiens acquired veteran center Sean Monahan in the offseason, there was naturally some concern about Monahan’s health. He had hip surgery and was coming off a season in which he had just eight goals and 23 points in 65 games. Those concerns were misplaced, apparently, because Monahan has been a solid contributor for the Habs. After assisting on both goals in Montreal’s 2-1 win at Calgary on Thursday, Monahan has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in the past 10 games and has most recently found a fit in the middle of a pair of power forwards, rookie Juraj Slafkovsky and veteran winger Josh Anderson. For a Montreal team that depends heavily on scoring from Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, they can appreciate the secondary scoring that Monahan provides.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

Tampa Bay Lightning 2019-20 Prospect Review: Top 20

Sat, 14 Sep 2019 13:14:19 +0000

In a system where the best performances came from older prospects with lower NHL ceilings, while those with the highest ceiling and the most youth still to play out struggled, the Lightning might feel dismay. Of course, with an NHL roster that is among the strongest in recent history and an organizational propensity for slowly developing unheralded talent to the point where they are legitimate NHL contributors, Tampa’s braintrust is not likely all that worried. Yet.

With former GM Steve Yzerman having taken a number of his most trusted lieutenants with him to Detroit, and current GM Julien BriseBois still feeling his way through his new role, including how his staff will work in tandem, there is a distinct likelihood that the Lightning will find their scouting preferences and development patterns evolving, making this assessment moot in short order.

One notable Tampa attribute that is often called out is the way they would heavily scout the QMJHL, both for the draft and for post-draft acquisitions, including free agents Yanni Gourde, Alex Barre-Boulet and, most recently, Jimmy Huntington. Those are just the free agents. Recent Lightning draft picks from the ‘Q’ include current NHLers Mathieu Joseph and Cedric Paquette, with Dennis Yan, Gabriel Fortier, Maxim Cajkovic, and Radim Salda still percolating.

I would have included Jonathan Marchessault in that group as well, but he passed through the New York Rangers’ and Columbus Blue Jackets’ systems before he received his first extended NHL chance with Tampa.

Another trait that they have followed can also be seen in a number of the aforementioned Quebecers. Gourde, Barre-Boulet, Marchessault, Fortier, and Cajkovic all have in common the trait of below average size. Not that they play small, but they are small. There are a large number of smaller players scattered throughout the system, not particular to those who came out of Quebec, but that branch is illustrative. Perhaps we can call that the Brayden Point (5-10”, 165) effect. The modern NHL is full of smaller talents who can be among the better players in the game. Point being one example, 2018-19 Hart Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov being another.

The Lightning have gone to some lengths to ensure that their entire is not populated by the small and/or lean. In the previous three drafts, they have used two of their first-round picks on the Foote brothers, son of 1990s tough rearguard Adam. Both Cal Foote (6-4”, 214) and Nolan (6-3”, 187) represent a complete 180 from the light brigade, and both are among the top prospects currently in the Tampa pipeline.

It is far too early to guess at how BriseBois will continue Yzerman’s legacy, and what type of players he will target, but they would do well to diversify more. As much as talent is paramount in today’s NHL, without being able to play in different styles, thereby giving their NHL roster some level of unpredictability, they run the risk of being a team that can be planned around. To sustain their success over the long haul, the Lightning should have players who play in straight North-South lines, as well as East-West puck movers. Looking at the NHL roster again, it is clear that they have already stocked up on the hard part. Now they just need to determine how to best fill out the lineup.

-Ryan Wagman

Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Callan Foote (Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)

1 Cal Foote, D (14^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 1) Foote’s ranking as Tampa Bay’s number one prospect is well deserved as he is the perfect mix of a skilled offensive blueliner with a highly physical and dependable defensive defenseman. He has exceptional awareness and his hockey IQ is what makes him a great player. He has size and plays a calm, aware positional game that makes him stand out as being the most mature and dynamic prospect on this list. He has the potential to be a top pairing defender with his intelligence and his overall skill set, and if he is able to power through another year with Syracuse to fully adapt to the professional level he may find himself with the Lightning as early as the end of next season. Foote is a dream defenseman where attitude and playmaking ability are concerned, and he is exactly what Tampa Bay needs to start the ball rolling with their new wave of top prospects. - SC

2 Nolan Foote, LW (27^th overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) The younger Foote started the season as a solid first round selection, and he lived up to his advance billing, scoring 36 goals and 63 points for the Rockets, without having much support around him. With Kelowna hosting the Memorial Cup this season, and seriously upgrading their team, he will have much more support and be able to relish in a larger role. Foote is a natural shooter with a great shot and plays with a nice blend of power and skill. He has good size, comes from strong bloodlines (see above), and is very versatile. He projects as a top six winger and a bonafide power forward, who will be able to go to the net and bury the puck. In the meantime, he will have a strong season with the Rockets and put up career best numbers. - KO

3 Alexander Volkov, RW (48^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 5) Volkov is a strong and quick skater that drives the net hard and can take the outside lanes with ease. He has good hands and can move the puck quickly through multiple players in one rush. He is a great addition to Tampa’s system and a good fit for the next level as a bottom six forward. He will need to polish up a few things in regard to his positional and two-way play. He will have to make sure to stay focused and keep his feet moving in the defensive end as well. Volkov will not be able to take any shifts off in the defensive zone especially if he is a member of any special team’s units. He will need another year in the minors to fully prepare himself for the jump to the NHL especially considering the depth of Tampa’s forwards. - SC

4 Mitchell Stephens, C (33^rd overall, 2015. Last Year: 7) Although Stephens did not manage a full season this past year with Syracuse, he still finished with solid offensive totals. He is a very competitive player who likes to win and who brings such passion to the game. He wins draws, gets to the net, blocks shots and plays a strong physical game. The only thing missing is an extra gear, as he needs that extra speed to be able to make a solid impact at the next level. He may be a powerful skater, but he needs a quicker jump to his stride and better reaction time to handle stop-and-go plays. Right now, with his skating the way it is, Stephens is a fourth line centerman at best, but if he pushes to be that much faster, he may be able to reach a third to second line projection. A fully healthy season back in the AHL will of course help him better prepare him for the NHL. - SC

5 Samuel Walker, C (200^th overall, 2017. Last Year: Not ranked) One of Tampa Bay’s recent smaller picks, Walker took the rare step of staying in high school the season after he was drafted. It looks like the unorthodox decision paid off. He had a stellar final season with Edina, was named Minnesota’s Mr. Hockey, and hit the ground running last season as a freshman with the University of Minnesota. Walker is very fast, plays bigger than his listed size and thrives in the greasy areas. He has gifted hands and has the makings of a zone entry machine. He has top six upside and will be expected to play a bigger role with the Golden Gophers this year, making up for graduations. One more year on this trajectory, and he will be a pro by this time next year. - RW

6 Boris Katchouk, LW (44^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 3) Katchouk had a disappointing first year in the professional ranks with Syracuse and his play was barely at par with the AHL level. An forward with average skills such as him needs to understand where he needs to be on the ice to be able to maximize his potential. His skills are not spectacular, and his skating is okay, but he knows how and where to be to make a play or put the puck in the net. He will need to play a more disciplined game next season and be more consistent with his work ethic in every shift. Katchouk has the potential to be a fourth liner at the NHL level but it will take a major turn around and some more experience and confidence building at the AHL level before even thinking about moving up to the NHL. - SC

7 Taylor Raddysh, RW (58^th overall, 2016. Last Year: 4) Raddysh is a natural goal scorer with a knack for getting to the net in even the most difficult of situations. He is a good skater and a strong shooter capable of getting shots off in tight situations. He is especially good with one timers and adapting to bad passes. He will need to up his game and play a more intense game overall in order to earn a call up and a bottom six spot with the Lightning. His creativity was prominent in his major junior years with Erie and Sault Ste. Marie, but he has since settled for playing a safer game and sticking to playing more vertical lines and the dump-and-chase. Raddysh will have to work on being more creative and being stronger on the puck in open ice situations, his level of want for the puck will have to improve next season in order to prepare for the next level. - SC

8 Hugo Alnefelt, G (71^st overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) Tampa didn’t pick a single Swedish player in the draft for eight years after they picked Victor Hedman in 2009. And then in the last two drafts, they have gone for Swedish goalies each year, with Alnefelt being the most interesting of them. He was impressive as the gold winning goalie at the WU18 last spring. As with every goalie prospect, he is a long-term project and will need to play at least another season in the junior league in Sweden before moving on to the next level. Alnefelt is a smooth goalie with good hockey sense and has shown ability to remain calm under pressure. He needs to get stronger and more consistent in every aspect of his game. The foundation for strong development looks good so far. - JH

9 Alex Barre-Boulet, C (Undrafted Free Agent, signed Mar. 1, 2018. Last Year: 12) For an undrafted player, Barre-Boulet’s progress from the QMJHL up to the AHL has been better than most could hope for. Last season he tied for the team lead in goals with 34, equal to his number of assists, in 74 games with the Crunch as a rookie pro. He has a good set of hands and adapts very quickly to what is going on around him. It is no wonder that a player as adaptable and focused as he is, along with his hockey IQ and his good positioning, succeeded in the AHL so quickly. The only improvement he will need to make to his game is his level of physicality and how tough he is on the puck. Barre-Boulet will need to be more eager to get into the dirty spots and will have to stop being second to the puck and more willing to take a hit to win a battle to create a play. That being said, he certainly has the potential of being a bottom six forward with Tampa Bay. - SC

10 Gabriel Fortier, C/RW (Undrafted Free Agent, signed Jul. 1, 2018. Last Year: 8) The first thing that strikes you about Fortier is that he makes himself noticeable on every shift. He is relentless all over the ice in pursuit of the puck and attacking those with it. He is a great example of a jack-of-all-trades forward. He is equally good with the puck as without, and on both sides of the puck as well. Having said that, he does not possess elite skill. He looks faster than he is; his legs move quick and stay moving, but his short stature at 5-10” does not lead to a long stride. He shifted his talents to playmaker this past season between Nathan Légaré and Ivan Chekhovich and did not skip a beat. Fortier’s style of play makes him a fan favorite, and he has the skills and smarts to play useful NHL shifts up and down the lineup. - MS

11 Maxim Cajkovic, RW (89^th overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) Cajkovic loves to grab the bull by the horns and play north-south hockey. He is a small-ish power forward who needs to grow into his body but does not shy away from physical play. He boasts a great shot from anywhere in the zone and loves to fire off the rush with a quick release. His skating is solid, and he is fleet on his feet. His work away from the puck needs work, but he puts in the effort on the defensive side of the ice. Cajkovic walked into a tough situation in Saint John without a lot of offensive support and made the most of it, leading the team in scoring by 12 with 46 points. Once he fills out, his body will allow him to take more punishment and will make him better equipped to play his natural role as a sniper at the NHL level. - MS

12 Carter Verhaeghe, C (82^nd overall, 2013 [Toronto]. Last Year: 15) A veteran player in the AHL ranks, Verhaeghe has finally been coming into his own and hitting his stride. Last season was a career high season as he finished with 82 points in 76 games with Syracuse. Those are the type of numbers that Tampa Bay is looking for from a forward prospect. He is a good two-way player and a good playmaker now that he understands the importance of patience and has the maturity in his game to make the right plays. Now that he is getting older however, this next season will be a make or break season for him to see if he will be able to cut it at the NHL level. It is one thing to be able to produce in the AHL, but it is another to be able to keep up the same level of production and play at the NHL level and half the battle for Verhaeghe will be getting the chance to do so. - SC

13 Dominik Masin, D (35^th overall, 2014. Last Year: 10) Masin is a defenseman who plays much bigger than he is and who also has a good head on his shoulders. He is good at reading the play and shutting down angles and closing off two on ones. He has found himself spending a lot of time in the penalty box as an AHLer, and not as much as he should want on the ice. It would be wise for him to play with more discipline heading into next season if his aim is to get called up to the NHL. There is no doubt that he is one of the fastest defensemen on this list and that he has the skill to play at the highest level but he will need to be mindful of his attitude and discipline during his shifts. Masin is still young despite this next season being his fourth with Syracuse and there is still a lot of room for him to develop as a player. - SC

14 Max Crozier, D (120^th overall, 2019. Last Year: IE) After being ignored in his first draft year as a two-way defender in the BCHL, Crozier went to Sioux Falls and gained a newly appreciative audience. When he wasn’t in the penalty box, he was among the more dynamic blueliners in the USHL. He is very fleet of foot and is a commanding presence on the offensive blueline. He has a solid point shot but does his best work when hunting out passing lanes to get the puck in deeper. He can play in all situations, although I would prefer if he wasn’t so infraction prone. Crozier should jump right into the top four rotation with Providence this year and could be a two-year journey from a pro contract. If he continues to develop, he could feasibly be a top four man at the highest level. - RW

15 Nick Perbix, D (169^th overall, 2017. Last Year: Not ranked) Perbix is another speculative late round pick on tools that might just be panning out for Tampa. Drafted in his second year of eligibility as a high schooler, he then moves on to a year in the USHL for Omaha, followed by an eye-opening freshman season with St. Cloud State. Gifted with a pro-sized frame, he uses his body well to rub out opponents along the boards and separate them from the puck. His long reach is also an asset in his own zone. More surprising though, was his offensive impact. He plays with confidence and is generally helping ensure the puck keeps moving in the right direction. There could be more upside here than we are seeing yet, but a second season in college might unveil. He is raw but shows NHL traits. - RW

16 Danick Martel, LW (Undrafted Free Agent, signed Mar. 10, 2015 [Philadelphia]. Last Year: Not ranked [Philadelphia]) Martel is an undersized forward but that does not seem to affect his play, nor impact how he forechecks. He is a grinder who brings a lot of speed and enthusiasm to each shift. His work ethic and the way his outside-the-box way of thinking allows him to set up plays is the main reason why he spent most of his healthy time last year up in the NHL. He is a quick skater and a good passer, he can win races to the puck, and contribute well to just about any play. His need to always be moving and to be present in the play can sometimes backfire as he can strive to do too much leading to turnovers. Martel has already proven that he can play at the NHL level and more than keep up with the speed of the game. If he can stay healthy, he should see more time up with the Lightning in a bottom six role this season. - SC

17 Dmitri Semykin, D (90^th overall, 2018. Last Year: 18) After moving to the SKA system, Semykin made some strides forward in his development, but he may have left some room for growth. He mostly played at the junior level, and considering his size, at this point he should play more at the pro level. He remains an interesting project due to his big frame and physical game, but he needs to improve in pretty much every aspect of his game to gain the right to play in the NHL – Even a year down the road, Tampa may have stretched things when they picked him in the third round. He still has plenty of time to improve and hone his game. He needs to play pro hockey next year to keep on progressing and earn a call to the WJC, before even thinking about North America. - ASR

18 Ryan Lohin, C (208^th overall, 2016. Last Year: Not ranked) Lohin, recently removed from the strong UMass-Lowell program, was a 7th round pick who seems to be a clear win for Tampa. At 6-0”, 194 pounds, he can get to the net and he is a very shifty skater who follows up his own shots. A very good passer, he has accumulated between 15-17 assists in each of his three years on campus. Last season he scored 12 goals which placed the captain third on the team in that category. After three seasons with the River Hawks, he signed his entry-level contract with Tampa last March, giving him enough time to get his professional feet wet with three games for the Syracuse Crunch. Based on Tampa’s stacked roster, he is expected to play there this season. Now 23, he needs to improve his skating to reach his ultimate ceiling as a 4^th line center in the NHL. - RC

19 Spencer Martin, G (63^rd overall, 2013 [Colorado]. Last Year: 12 [Colorado]) His development has been the rocky road expected out of goaltenders nowadays, as few are ever sure things at that position, but the big and aggressive netminder signed with Tampa this offseason and looks to get back on the right track. The 2013 third-rounder has long played with a very aggressive style that dates back to his OHL tenure with Mississauga, edging the lip of the crease and challenging slot-shooters with a fully extended array of tools. He is very calm and makes tough saves look easy at times, which is made easier by his insistence on playing high up in the blue paint at all times. General inconsistencies in the Colorado system forced Martin out, but he still has NHL backup potential, and is only 24, which is fairly young for goaltenders. - TD

20 Alexei Lipanov, C (76^th overall, 2017. Last Year: 13) Lipanov is a dedicated two way forward with limited offensive potential. The two years that he spent in the Ontario Hockey League must be classified as a disappointment after being a third-round draft pick by the Lightning. Lipanov does have some qualities that could make him a 4th line role player, such as positional versatility, strength along the wall, and hockey sense in all three zones. That all said, his skating is likely not strong enough for him to be effective in this role and will need to improve should he wish to be an NHL player. Consider Lipanov a longshot, at best, to have an NHL career. - BO

Colorado Avalanche Prospect System Overview

Tom Dorsa — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:15:11 +0000

The Colorado Avalanche are in a pretty unusual position right now. They do not possess the depth of scoring and blue line talent to make consistent postseason runs, but their surprising qualification for the 2018 playoffs, behind former Calder Trophy winner and league-MVP finalist Nathan MacKinnon, indicates that Colorado has the young talent necessary for contention.

A look at their prospect system says otherwise. With their former top prospects such as MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen already up and contributing greatly to the NHL club, the system does not have the same depth as it should. Combine that with some boneheaded trades (to be fair, some really good ones, we'll get to that) like throwing prospects away for late-season rentals, as well as poor late-round drafting, and no prospect pool will remain deep for long.

What the Avalanche have is one top-pair defense prospect with superstar potential, that being Cale Makar, then a massive crop of guys with role-player ceilings, then a complete bag of unknowns following up. It might be a positive to not have many Grade A stars on the club for financial reasons, but for pure talent and success reasons, it's a flat tire.

Luckily for the Avalanche, general manager Joe Sakic can act with impunity as a fan favorite, making trades and signings at his liking. Sometimes these deals work out very well, such as the Sven Andrighetto and Samuel Girard acquisitions, the Tyson Jost draft pick, or the Alex Kerfoot signing, transactions that made instant impacts on the club. Sakic has some experience in completely turning the franchise around and looks to do the same here.

Another thing that will help mightily is the expansion of the American Hockey League from 30 teams to 31, meaning the Avs return to manning their own farm affiliate, the Colorado Eagles, rather than sharing the San Antonio Rampage roster with St. Louis.

Though Makar, their top prospect, is still outside of the pro system for now, guys like second-ranked Conor Timmins and third-ranked Vladislav Kamenev will not have to worry about ice time or coaching disputes as Colorado receives the AHL expansion franchise. The development of guys like A.J. Greer and Nicolas Meloche were directly affected by the shared franchise in San Antonio.

If the Avalanche want to prove that 2017-18 was no fluke, and that they are ready to be regular postseason contenders, these are the guys that will have to help.

Cale Makar

1 Cale Makar, D (4th overall, 2017. Last year: 1st) Some scouts say Cale Makar could have gone first overall in the 2017 NHL Draft, and with his skillset, it is difficult to disagree. He made headlines a few month ago by electing to remain with UMASS-Amherst as a sophomore this season, rather than joining the Avalanche pro ranks, but fans in Denver will keep an eye on the highly-coveted defenseman nonetheless. Combining blazing wheels, insane vision, and a right-handed shot will make for an instant NHL-caliber blueliner, but Makar is much more, and has been the most purely skilled player on every team, and at every level, he has played on. He is a shifty, elusive skater with unbelievable raw skating power, coupling his mobility with dynamic offensive skills such as his swift, deceptive hands, nifty stutter-steps and dekes, and the occasional fake pass or shot that sends opposing defenders skating in circles. There really isn't much for him to improve upon, and he could hold his own in the NHL right now. He is a smart player who allows plays to develop with his ever-improving hockey sense and does not often force bad puck plays going up the ice, and is surprisingly physical for a 5-11" defender.

2 Conor Timmins, D (32nd overall, 2017. Last year: 3rd) He does not possess the same superstar ceiling as Makar, but the next best prospect defenseman in the Avs’ system is arguably a safer bet to be a consistent NHL contributor. The first pick in 2017's second round, Timmins outplayed 2018 first-rounder Rasmus Sandin on the blueline of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, posting a 0.87 points per game mark (36 in 41 games). For a player drafted so high on account of his sturdiness and responsibility, his offensive output is pretty solid. A very versatile defenseman, Timmins skates well with his athleticism being a driving force, has solid vision that makes for good first stretch passes, and has sneakily great shooting abilities; he can bomb them from the blueline, but also slide down into the play to find an open lane and score. His only issue at this juncture is patience and decisiveness with the puck, but at 19-years-old, he is about as complete as any defensive prospect in hockey. He is set to make the transition to the AHL this season.

3 Vladislav Kamenev, C (Trade: Nov. 5, 2017 [Nashville]. Last year: 3rd [Nashville]) The Matt Duchene trade continues to look better for Colorado as time elapses. Though Vladislav Kamenev has had a rough go at it in his short NHL time, including a broken arm in his Avalanche debut, his potential is another part of a clear winning trade for Joe Sakic and crew. After putting up near a point per game in his third AHL season, this one with Milwaukee (NSH) and San Antonio (COL), Kamenev cracked the Avs lineup sortly after the trade, indicating a sense of confidence from the coaching staff. A very smart, reliable center, the Russian former second-rounder is often used to protect late leads and kill penalties, something his skillset could allow him to do regularly at the NHL level. He is a solid skater with above average speed and good balance, and has the puck skills to generate scoring chances even when he can't beat a defender with his wheels. With good pure size (6-2", 194 lbs), it is more than likely that he will become a better player with the puck as he gets more NHL time. He is expected to compete for a roster spot in training camp.

4 Martin Kaut, RW (16th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) Martin Kaut is a very intriguing prospect. Without looking at his gameplay traits, he can impress just on account of the fact that he played alongside first-rounders Martin Necas and Filip Zadina at the WJC and was constantly developing plays and setting those two up, which is not easy to do at that level. He was also playing at the highest level of Czech hockey at 17 and 18 years old, impressing many along the way, racking up nine goals and seven assists in 38 games there last season. It is on account of that proven performance level that the Avalanche used their first-round pick on the young winger, as his maturity and hockey IQ are unmatched when considering his age and competition level. He is not a very good skater, though he is technically sound and has enough quickness to his feet to keep up with faster skaters. His biggest asset is the mental side of his game, as he processes things at a lightning fast pace and rarely makes a bad decision, coupling that with his effort on defense, where his promise really comes to light in coverage and on the backcheck. He may not be the most dynamic player, but there is a lot to like about Kaut, whose smarts project him as a middle-six winger at the highest level.

Shane Bowers

5 Shane Bowers, C (Trade: Nov. 5, 2017 [Ottawa]. Last year: 4th [Ottawa]) A power forward acquired from the trade that netted Duchene and Kamanev, Shane Bowers saw no drop in productivity this season as he made the jump from the USHL to the NCAA, scoring 17 goals and adding 15 assists with Boston University as a freshman. A former late first-rounder was one of a few impact prospects acquired from the Duchene trade, he might have the highest ceiling of the pack if he can round his game out. A strong and powerful skater despite of average size (6-0", 178 lbs), Bowers heads right to the net with the puck on his stick, and displays deft balance when making his way to the goal which makes him a handful for opponents. He has some intriguing, wonderful creativity and the hockey IQ to light a match on it all, making scintillating puck plays with ease. He is also dependable in his own end, and very physical when the task calls for it, but plays mostly a clean game (14 PIM in 41 games last season). There is a lot of risk/reward with Bowers, such as how his power forward game will translate to the bigger, faster NHL and how he can produce with a merely average shooting ability, but his ceiling makes him one of the most interesting prospects in the system.

6 Sampo Ranta, RW (78th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) The Sioux City Musketeers triggerman racked up 23 goals and 14 assists in as a second-year player in the USHL, finishing second in points on a team thin on dynamic talent. An easy comparison for Ranta would be Nashville prospect Eeli Tolvanen, given their shared native land and USHL club, but stylistically, there are not far off, as Ranta raises eyebrows with his shot and skating over anything else. Used as a power-play shooter, he showed off the blazing slap shot he possesses often with the Musketeers, although he was not solely a shooter, as his agility, edgework, and speedy momentum allowed him to weave through traffic and find open teammates for scoring chances. He is also a fairly reliable two-way player, one whose effort on backchecks and defensive zone coverage is pretty impressive. Ranta has pure skills, but whether he is a good, NHL-caliber player or just the best player on a bad junior team is the biggest question going forward.

7 Tyler Weiss, LW (109th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) An extremely lightweight winger, Tyler Weiss fell to round four of the most recent draft with concerns about his physical stature and whether he has the inherent skills to overcome it. The Raleigh, North Carolina native has one thing that skill or physicality cannot match, that being pure determination and drive, an attribute that helps him constantly improve in ways that keep turning heads. With the U.S. National Team Development Program, he chipped in 12 goals, 19 assists, and 31 points in mostly a bottom-six role, and now he goes to a system that has made use out of smaller, lighter guys like Samuel Girard and Sven Andrighetto. Weiss is a very quick skater with loads of agility and a certain elusiveness that comes with undersized forwards, using his quick acceleration and short, rapid strides to weave through defenders and enter the offensive zone without a challenge. He does not have much weight behind his shot, but carries more playmaking skills than goal-scoring attributes anyway. He plays with a very scrappy, push-and-shove game away from the puck, and brings an infectious energy to the bench. Colorado can see how his game, despite his diminutive stature, can translate to more physical levels as he plays with Nebraska-Omaha this season.

8 Justus Annunen, G (64th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) Easily the top goaltender in the Finnish junior ranks last season, Justus Annunen shot up draft boards with his mix of size, athleticism, and foot movement, hearing his name called in the early third round in June. At 6-4" and 215 lbs, he utilized his big frame to put up a 2.31 GAA, .907 Sv%, and even better numbers in 14 postseason games (1.83, .935%). In addition, he backstopped the gold medal-winning Finland squad at the Under-18 Ivan Hlinka tournament, and joins Liiga powerhouse Karpat next season at just 18 years old. His lateral movement is that of a goaltender four inches shorter, and that combination of size and agility in the blue paint is lethal for the young netminder. He has good play-reading abilities and maintains a solid post-to-post presence, with the most additional work needed being cutting down tricky angles and reading cross-ice passes with more urgency. Annunen enters a system with some underwhelming goaltending prospects and has a chance to solidify himself as the Avalanche's goalie of the future.

9 Cameron Morrison, LW (40th overall, 2016. Last year: 8th) Formerly named the USHL Rookie of the Year, Cameron Morrison has had an inconsistent, but at times promising, transition to the competition level and pace of NCAA hockey. He was over a point-per-game for a below-average Youngstown team in 2015-16, but has yet to eclipse 25 points in either of his two seasons at Notre Dame. With that being said, it is clear that Morrison is getting increasingly comfortable with making plays happen with his immense skill, working hard to do what he does best: getting inside position on opposing defenders and driving to the net. His speed and mechanics are not up to speed, but with scary size (6-3", 212 lbs), he can execute a power forward game from the wing and generate chances with his adept ability to shield the puck from defenders. A decently agile winger, he is effective on the forecheck and can help defensively at times, but defense is not a strength. The former second-rounder needs to be more consistent in creating offense to become an NHL-caliber player, but as with most college players, he remains a long-term project who is still relatively early in his development.

Nick Henry

10 Nick Henry, RW (94th overall, 2017. Last year: 11th) At first glance, one scary thought about Nick Henry is that his offensive numbers in his draft year came as a byproduct of a stacked Regina Pats team that dominated the WHL. This year was more a struggle, as he tallied only 29 points in 53 games. However, in fairness, he was recovering from a shoulder surgery conducted the prior summer, and simply started out slow; as soon as he felt 100%, he rocketed up again, scoring a hat trick in the playoffs against the eventual league champs from Swift Current. Henry possesses raw skill, headlined by a heavy, quick-release wrist shot capable of routinely fooling opposing goaltenders. With average skating speed, he does not carry the puck up much (not uncommon for any linemate of the great Sam Steel), but exhibits splendid hand-eye coordination, offensive creativity, and good hands when he does. The true test for Henry's real, sustainable game will be an eventual foray into the pro ranks, but as he only cost Colorado a fourth-round pick, they have time to wait.

11 Ryan Graves, D (Trade: Feb. 26, 2017 [New York Rangers]. Last year: 6th [New York Rangers]) Unfortunately for Ryan Graves, a very serviceable defender in his own right, Avalanche executives and fans will view him as the consolation for trading the disappointing Chris Bigras, a former high second-rounder whose development in the pros floundered and necessitated a trade away. Nonetheless, Graves offers a reason to remain optimistic, because at 6-4" and 225, there are quality aspects of his game around which to build. He is not a fast skater, but adapted to a playing style in the AHL that masks his flaws and allows him to be effective everywhere else, most notably in physical battles around the boards, stretch passes up the ice, and thunderous slap shots from the point. If any NHL success is to be achieved, the Avalanche will have to pair him with a more mobile, agile defenseman, but it is possible he finds a way to contribute in a supplemental, third-pair role.

12 Spencer Martin, G (63rd overall, 2013. Last year: 16th) Spencer Martin's 2017-18 season was less than ideal, but not exactly his fault. Colorado's AHL affiliate was actually a shared enterprise, with AHL expansion trailing the NHL’s version by 12 months, forcing the Avs and Blues to coexist as San Antonio's NHL parent clubs. With this, Martin got considerably less time than a denoted "goaltender of the future" should, battling with Blues' prospect Ville Husso for time in net. He did decently for a non-playoff team, nonetheless, but not NHL-caliber goalie numbers, going 14-15-0 with a 3.10 GAA and .893 Sv%. He has raw talent boasts extreme calmness under pressure that allows him to make easy -- and difficult -- saves at all times and in all positions. Fairly aggressive in his crease, playing up his big frame by challenging shooters into harder shot angles. Martin projects to be a backup at the NHL level, but still a useful one.

13 Denis Smirnov, RW (156th overall, 2017. Last year: 17th) Drafted as a 19-year-old overager in 2017, Denis Smirnov impressed the Avalanche brass into a draft position by racking up 47 points in 39 games as a freshman at Penn State. Smirnov, a Russian who has played in North American since his age-14 season, was a sneakily skilled scorer at the USHL ranks with Fargo before transitioning to the NCAA, putting to good use an advantage that many prospects from overseas do not have: a preexisting acclimation to smaller North American ice. He produces a lot of offense from the boards and the perimeter of the zone, using his slick hands to escape defenders and pass or exhibiting great assertiveness to fire a confident shot away from some distance. However, he is not a very fast skater at top speed and seems to be a non-factor when he isn't on his game offensively.

14 Ty Lewis, LW (Free Agent Signing: Oct. 3, 2017. Last year: IE) An undrafted, unsigned invite to Avalanche training camp before the 2017-18 season, Ty Lewis showed up ready to compete, and quickly earned himself an ELC with the team. In hindsight, it looks to be a stellar stealth signing from Sakic and company, as the 20-year-old led WHL Brandon in points last season as one of only nine WHLers to reach the 100-point plateau (44 goals, 56 assists). With a dangerous mix of speed, skill, and a nose for the net, he was a pivotal weapon both on and off the puck. When he carried the rubber, he showed his innate ability to either find the open man and drive to the goal to be fed a net-front return or create his own chance. Off the puck, his positioning led to an assortment of easy tap-ins. With the AHL team, Lewis will need to prove his game can transition to the pros, while working on his flawed two-way game.

Nicolas Meloche

15 Nicolas Meloche, D (40th overall, 2015. Last year: 6th) Nicolas Meloche dropped nine spots from last year's prospect rankings to this year's, an indictment of the slow pace of his development. He was generally a liability on the Rampage blueline in what was his first pro year, one supposed to be a highly-anticipated transition to the professional leagues. Instead, he suffered the occasional mid-game benching, healthy scratch, and even an ECHL assignment. Meloche had trouble adjusting to the pace and skill of the AHL, a fact you can blame somewhat on a team thin on the blueline. He still has some raw talent and fine upside as a 6-3", right-handed defenseman who can skate, with superb mobility, a fast, hard shot, and a cool, calm demeanor. An efficient two-way defenseman in the QMJHL ranks, that remains his NHL ceiling, and his late-season performances (five points in final eight games, top-four minutes, power-play time) inspire confidence going down the road.

16 Igor Shvyrev, C (125th overall, 2017. Last year: 15th) Igor Shvyrev is an international man of mystery, but every NHL prospect system needs a resident enigma. Shvyrev embodies that role perfectly; a versatile, extraordinarily-skilled centerman whose numbers in the Russian minor leagues scream future NHL stalwart at times, with 70 points (21 goals, 49 assists) in just 40 games in 2016-17, but he has not been able to stick in the KHL, having just one goal in 42 games at the higher level. So why would the Avs sign the Russian center to an ELC? The simple fact that Shvyrev was playing center in the KHL at 18 and 19, reliably so in the bottom lines for Metallurg Magnitogorsk, is a good sign. Elsewhere, he has a dynamic skillset headlined by swift hands, great vision, a responsible defensive game, and a heavy shot; with some seasoning in the AHL, the 20-year-old could be NHL ready in short order.

17 Scott Kosmachuk, RW (UFA: Jul. 2, 2018. Last year: IE) A third-round pick six years ago and an OHL champion four years prior, Kosmachuk has returned to prospect prominence. After a great season with the Rangers' AHL affiliate in Hartford, he was offered a two-way contract with the Avalanche and will bring with him to Colorado the offensive tools that first made him attractive to NHL teams as a teen. Scouted mostly as an industrious depth winger, Kosmachuk played as a first-liner and at times, completely shouldered the load for the Wolf Pack offense, using his net-front drive, high end shot, and tenacious physicality to become a pain in the neck for opposing defenses. He is a very dangerous at top speed, with tricky agility that is capable of dangling around defenders, despite not being an overly fast skater. If he produces with the Eagles like he did with the Wolf Pack, an NHL recall could be imminent.

18 A.J. Greer, RW (39th overall, 2015. Last year: 7th) Like Meloche, A.J. Greer is someone who dropped considerably from last season's rankings, mainly because of the same issue; inconsistency and the overall inability to reach their game's competitive ceiling. Greer does not have the same offensive chops as Meloche or his other peers, but the Rampage forward netted eight goals and five assists in 35 games with SA and earned the first somewhat long-term recall of his career, playing 17 games with the Avalanche. As a 21-year-old draftee of 2015, you can consider that development timeline normal and timely, but no actual development occurred because he plays such a simple, prototypical bottom-six game. He is effective when he hustles and is very physical on the forecheck, capable of securing loose pucks and scoring some tough, clutch goals thanks to rugged net-front tenacity, but very one-dimensional. He could compete for a roster spot with the Avs this season.

19 Danila Zhuravlyov, D (146th overall, 2018. Last year: IE) Definitely a long-term project, but potentially a steal, young Russian defenseman Danila Zhuravlyov displayed a pretty promising two-way game for Russian minor-league club Irbis Kazan (nine goals, nine assists in 28 assists) and for Russia at the World Under-18s (five assists in five games). He is underdeveloped physically, but he has great straight-line speed and acceleration, using those skills to push the puck up ice with frequency. He is not afraid to let the puck fly from the point (his nine goals last season should tell you that) and has a good slap shot to boot. He is an effective defenseman in his own zone despite the lack of size, with tight gap control and attentive coverage within his zone.

20 Sheldon Dries, C (UDFA: Jul. 2, 2018. Last year: IE) After playing as an AHL-contracted rookie with the Texas Stars, Sheldon Dries inked an entry-level deal with the Avalanche in free agency, his first NHL contract. The undrafted center lit the Stars' AHL affiliate up with 19 goals and 11 assists in the regular season, followed by a team-high ten goals on their way to the Calder Cup Final. He is a high-energy guy, one that plays a middle-six role in the AHL while competing on the penalty kill, power play, and defending late leads. A Swiss army knife in Texas' lineup last season, Dries scored the bulk of his goals by driving into the offensive zone with his blazing skating speed and letting it rip with heavy, accurate wrist shots from the slot or around the faceoff circles, putting more power in his wrist shot than his 5-9" frame suggests is possible. Of course, that lack of height is what has held the center back before, but the 24 year-old can be considered a legitimate prospect on account of his maturity, experience, and versatility.

AHL Central – Colorado Edition: Spencer Martin (San Antonio – Colorado), Vladislav Kamenev (Milwaukee/San Antonio – Colorado)

Ryan Wagman — Wed, 22 Nov 2017 19:52:34 +0000

Spencer Martin has had an impressive start to the season winning 10 of 12 games. He made his NHL debut last season in a nightmarish Avalanche season. Ryan Wagman breaks down his characteristics and his reason for success this season.

Vladislav Kamenev was part of the blockbuster trade of the NHL 17-18 season so far. He joins a Colorado team that will provide him an opportunity likely sooner rather than later. Called up to the big club right away, he is now on the shelf for a while after breaking his arm in his NHL debut with Colorado. A detailed scouting report follows.

A note on the 20-80 scale used below. We look at five attributes (skating, shooting, puck skills, hockey IQ and physicality) for skaters and six for goalies (athleticism/quickness, compete/temperament, vision/play reading, technique/style, rebound control and puck handling). Each individual attribute is graded along the 20-80 scales, which includes half-grades. The idea is that a projection of 50 in a given attribute meant that our observer believed that the player could get to roughly NHL average at that attribute at maturity.

Spencer Martin	2013 Draft (63rd - Colorado Avalanche)
Position:G, Catches: L	H/W: 6-3", 210 lbs
Stats to date (GP-GAA-Save%)	San Antonio Rampage, AHL (10-2.60-.913)

Athleticism/Quickness/Speed: Martin is a plus athlete in the crease. Allows him to recover very quickly for second chances. He moves his feet very quickly and post-to-post is strong, although he does not always look graceful in getting from point A to point B. Can scramble in a pinch. Grade: 50

Compete/Temperament: Calmness under pressure allowing him to make a lot of clean saves. Having spent his OHL career with Mississauga before the time of Mike McLeod, Owen Tippett and others, and then spending his first two AHL seasons with a very undermanned San Antonio staff, Martin is used to facing a lot of rubber. Traffic – heavy to the point of knocking him off his feet – does not faze him and he puts in noticeable effort to regain his feet ASAP. Grade: 60

Vision/Play Reading: Accustomed to searching for pucks through a crowd, Martin tracks well enough. Does not seem to lose sight of the puck, or need to play catch-up. Grade: 55

Technique/Style: Moderate aggressiveness. Will challenge the shooter, but not to an extreme amount. Fairly typical in his positioning. Grade: 55

Rebound Control: Does a good job of stopping pucks cleanly. He could be more consistent in this regards, but he minimizes second chances. If he cannot stop the puck and hold it, he generally is able to kick it out to the corners and out of danger. Grade: 50

Puck Control: Very cautious with the puck. Very unlikely to play it beyond settling it down. Puck play is basically not a part of Martin’s game. Grade: 40

Summary: After years of struggling to put up noteworthy numbers on subpar teams in the OHL and AHL, the influx of St. Louis Blues’ prospects to the San Antonio Rampage has enabled Spencer Martin to show how effective he could be with an adequate blueline in front of him. He moves very well. Does his best work when facing the most rubber His worst games this season have been ones where he has not faced quite so many shots. Also known as a workhorse, although will be splitting time with St. Louis prospect Ville Huuso this year. Projects as high as a roughly average NHL starter, but will likely have to break into the NHL in a back-up role. He is a much better goalie than he showed in his first NHL cameo on a brutal Avalanche team last year.

Overall Future Projection (OFP): 52.25

Vladislav Kamenev	2014 Draft (42nd - Nashville Predators, traded to Colorado Avalanche in November 2017, as part of three-way trade including Kyle Turris, Matt Duchene, Samuel Girard and more)
Position: C/LW, Shoots L	H/W: 6-2", 195 lbs
Stats to date (GP-G-A-PTS-PIMS)	Milwaukee Admirals/San Antonio Rampage, AHL (14-3-9-12-27)

Skating: Has a strong first two steps to break into the clear. Good balance, slightly above average top speed. Grade: 55

Shot: Has quick wrists and a nice release on his wrist shot from medium distance and out, but more likely to either dish to a teammate or try to score from close to the net. Grade: 55

Skills: His puck carrying sometimes seems one-note, as he picks the straightest path possible to power through to the net, keeping the puck on his backhand. Has decent strength on the puck, and not easy to strip from him, although Kamenev will occasionally rush a pass when under direct pressure. Grade: 55

Smarts: Very impressive on the draw, seemingly winning faceoffs cleanly over and over again. Committed in his own zone, quick to fill up shooting lanes to block point shots against. Began his pro career young and is generally trusted by his coaches to protect leads late. Only 21 and already in his third North American pro season. Was receiving regular KHL shifts in his first post-draft season. Grade: 60

Physicality: Average to slightly above average frame and he will use it, although not in an aggressive manner; more likely to use lean to get the advantage. The strength is there to be more forceful off the puck, but it does not seem to be in his nature to be an instigator. That said, he follows the play wherever it goes and has no compunction to playing in the greasy areas. Grade: 50

Summary: In making Vladislav Kamenev one of the key pieces returning to Colorado in the big three way trade that sent Matt Duchene to Ottawa and also saw long-time Senator Kyle Turris move on to Nashville, it was no great surprise to see the young Russian two-way forward get the call up to the Avalanche within a week or so of his acquisition. Now in his third AHL season, he plays a very mature game, showing a bit of everything, and strong in all three zones. He has little left to learn in the minor leagues and the time is ripe for him to establish a role in the NHL. Can be eased into the best league in the world in a protected role as he acclimatizes to the increase speed and skill of the league. He should be very good for a long while.

*UPDATE – as this report was being finalized, word broke that Kamenev broke his left arm on a hit by Brooks Orpik early in his first game with Colorado. The projection does not change, but the timeline is pushed back a few months.

Overall Future Projection (OFP): 55.75

Colorado – System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 15 Sep 2017 15:46:50 +0000

There are three primary reasons why some teams have weak systems. The best reason is that they had drafted so well that all of their good prospects have already made the NHL, or were traded for NHL talent. If we use our cutoff birthdate for prospect eligibility (Sep. 15, 1991), without regard for NHL experience, we can clearly see that the Avalanche fit this criteria. Regular young NHL contributors include Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Nieto, Mikko Rantanen, Sven Andrighetto, and Nail Yakupov. Most teams have a few young contributors, but the Avalanche crew is particularly deep and high end.

The other two reasons are not very complimentary, and unfortunately for the Avalanche, they meet those criteria as well. The more common of the two remaining criteria is that the team drafts poorly. Some might object to saying that the Avs have a rough history at the draft table, especially considering the names above, three of whom were Colorado first rounders. In fairness to Colorado, they have not missed on too many of their top picks. Outside of the aforementioned MacKinnon, Landeskog and Rantanen, the top of their prospect list this year features their last two first rounders, Cale Makar and Tyson Jost, both of whom are exciting talents that would rest near the top of most team lists.

The problem for Colorado has been that once the first round has ended, they have not had very much success at all. Further, not all first rounders have turned out. To the former point, of the six players listed in the first paragraph, three were to ten picks by the Avalanche, and the other three were acquired through trade or free agency. Since the 2010 draft, the only player picked by Colorado after the first round who has a full 50 NHL games under his belt has been Joseph Blandisi. Embarrassingly for the franchise, they did not even sign Blandisi, a 2012 sixth rounder, who has made his NHL mark as a member of the New Jersey Devils. There are many non-first rounders in their top 20 now (which should be obvious), but very few of whom it could be said have improved their prospect stock measurably since being drafted.

To the latter point, I present to you one Duncan Siemens as Exhibit A, and Connor Bleackley as Exhibit B. Siemens, drafted 11th overall in 2011, has a mere four games of NHL experience. He s big, strong, and can skate a bit, but has zero offensive skill whatsoever and handles the puck as though he is allergic to it. He is lucky to make the top 20 here and would miss out altogether with most other franchises Bleackley was so disappointing to the Avs, that they did not even offer him a contract, trading his rights as part of the ill begotten Mikkel Boedker trade. He is now in the St. Louis system. If a few of the players ranked here pan out, we could begin to forget the team’s years in the scouting wilderness.

The final reason, one that is thankfully rare, is that the team fails to come to terms with a good prospect before losing his rights. There are often one or two examples of this every year. Think about Mike Reilly abandoning Columbus to sign with Minnesota, or Jimmy Vesey ignoring Nashville/Buffalo to sign with the Rangers. This year, the most prominent collegian who elected to walk away from the team that drafted him is Will Butcher, a 5th round pick from 2013 who has had a brilliant career with the University of Denver, winning both an NCAA championship and the prestigious Hobey Baker Award as a senior. A highly skilled puck moving blueliner, Butcher made it known in July that he would be exploring free agency once his player rights with Colorado expire on August 15. And for those wondering, (Kerfoot + Toninato) =/= Butcher.

With these three strikes against them, what the Avalanche are left with heading into the 2017-18 season is a system with two true top prospects at the top, a steep dropoff to the next six players, all of whom have some promise, but lack clarity on what their eventual NHL upside might be. After that group of eight, there is another, even steeper drop to round out the top twenty. The last 12 players are those for whom we project either upsides as role players in the NHL, or are those with some intriguing upside, but so much uncertainty that we would not even guarantee an NHL career at all. That list looks like this:

Cale Makar for the Brooks Bandits. Photos byEmily Duncan / Brooks Bandits

1 Cale Makar – One of, if not the, preeminent offensive defenseman prospects in the game. Exploded with Brooks of the AJHL this year and was almost always the top player on the ice at every level he played (regular season, playoffs, RBC Cup, WJAC). Skating, shot and puck skills all rate as high end. His time with the UMass Minutemen should be brief. He has superstar potential.

Colorado Avalanche center Tyson Jost (27) (Photo by David Berding/Icon Sportswire)

2 Tyson Jost – A top two center in the making, he acclimated seamlessly from the BCHL to NCAA’s defending champs with North Dakota. His hands are elite and his offensive instincts are tremendous. Came up to Colorado for a late season cameo, scoring his first NHL goal in six games. Was a key contributor on Canada’s Silver-medal winning WJC entry and was named to the NCAA All-Rookie first team.

Conor Timmins of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

3 Conor Timmins – Although Timmins lack the upside of Makar or Jost, the first pick of the 2017 second round has a little bit of everything. Only a few days too young to be a 2016 draft eligible player, he showed the ability to be a #1 at the OHL level, with enough in his puck moving and decision making that a second pairing role at the highest level is a reasonable outcome.

4 J.T. Compher – In his first year out of the University of Michigan, Compher’s ability to produce at a strong level stayed with him as a rookie pro. With a nice blend of skating, vision and physicality, he projects as a solid middle six forward with admirable versatility.

5 Chris Bigras – After falling four games short of graduating as a prospect in 2015-16, injuries prevented Bigras from continuing his NHL career last year. When healthy, he still looks like he has NHL potential, although the chances that he can settle in as more than a good #5 are dwindling. With the Colorado blueline weak, this may be his last big chance to solidify his standing with the organization.

6 Nicolas Meloche – A mean player with some offensive potential, but skating concerns, Meloche needs to improve his turning ability to reach his potential as a player who can take on tough shifts on the blueline.

7 A.J. Greer – Similar to Meloche, but as a forward. Effective when he hustles, his lack of creativity, or patience with the puck will limit his offensive potential, but he is smart and physical enough to carve out a bottom six role.

8 Cameron Morrison – Still early in his development, Morrison had a solid, if not overpowering, freshman season with Notre Dame last year. Struggled at times with the step up to NCAA competition, but still able to show offensive flashes.

9 Alexander Kerfoot – A late acquisition as an NCAA free agent, Kerfoot was originally a fifth round pick of New Jersey’s who, like former college teammate Jimmy Vesey, chose free agency. He has very good straight-ahead speed in addition to impressive agility. Although he found twine more often as a senior, he is primarily a playmaker, with soft hands and good offensive vision.

10 Jean-Christophe Beaudin – Ready to turn pro after three strong years with Rouyn-Noranda. Beaudin’s speed will be a limiting factor, but he has an otherwise well-rounded offensive game and plays with energy and guile. Needs at least two years in the AHL.

Nick Henry, photo by Keith Hershmiller

11 Nick Henry – A strong secondary scorer in his draft year with a powerhouse Regina team in the WHL, the overall skillset leaves a number of questions about how much of his impressive point production was his own doing and how much the work of more experienced teammates. At the price of a fourth round pick, it was worth Colorado’s time to find out.

12 Dominic Toninato – Signed by Colorado as a free agent after he could not come to terms with Toronto, Toninato brings a physical, intelligent, and responsible game to the Avalanche. Not the fastest skater, he nonetheless has close-area quickness and is very hard to handle along the boards. He is not far from a bottom six NHL role.

13 Anton Lindholm – Former fifth round pick made his NHL debut and will be in the hunt for a spot on the Colorado blueline this year. There is little exciting about his game, and is very undersized, but he has a tendency to put himself in the right spot to push play in the right direction. Very low upside, but near ready.

14 Andrei Mironov – A beefy defensive defenseman who will have more of an impact through his physical game than anything he does with the puck. Finally moving to North America after nearly 200 games in the KHL.

15 Igor Shvyrov – to quote our Russian analyst, Shvyrov has “violinist hands”. He can skate, has good size and his production in the Russian junior leagues was incredible last year, but he tends to avoid physical play and can disappear in his own zone. Expected to play in the KHL this year.

16 Spencer Martin – Has long been a workhorse starter, but never on a decent team, even in the OHL. How much of that is his doing? Very good puck player for a netminder. If he can maintain level of play with a more even timeshare, he could profile as a future NHL backup.

17 Denis Smirnov – Similar in some ways to Shvyrov, Smirnov has played in North America since he was 14 and scores everywhere he goes. Scored 47 points in 39 points as a freshman for Penn State. The main drawback is that his best work comes from the perimeter. Needs to show he can produce, despite a slight frame, against tighter defenses.

18 Felix Girard – A high energy defensive forward. His upside is a fourth line, penalty killing center in the NHL. His downside is a middle six forward in the AHL.

19 Duncan Siemens – Among the worst draft picks of the last ten years. Tough and does OK in his own end, both he and his teammates and coaches know that it would be to everyone’s benefit if the puck stays clear of his stick.

20 Josh Anderson – Big beefy defender who has 21 total points across three seasons patrolling the blueline for Prince George. The Avalanche seem to like this type of player, but they rarely pan out.

After spending so many non-first round draft picks on similar style players – big, offensively challenged defensemen and two-way forwards with limited production potential, it is heartening to see the Avalanche use more picks on players with an offensive bent to their game in the past two years, including Morrison, Smirnov, Shvyrov, and Henry. This assessment, of course, does not consider the expected near future contributions of Makar and Jost, both of whom are expected to be key pieces of the next competing Colorado team.

That said, if the few guys in the system who project as middle six forwards (Compher, Morrison, Beaudin) do not pan out, the team will have a very hard time producing offense outside of the top line players. Similarly, outside of Timmins and Makar there is no one in the system who projects as more than blueline depth, and not in the power-play specialist role either. Goaltending may be the weakest spot of all. Last year’s backup, Calvin Pickard, was lost in the expansion draft and starter Semyon Varlamov had an injury-plagued down year. Spencer Martin is the only goalie in the system who can reasonably be expected to play some in the NHL, but is most likely a backup. They have drafted a few additional netminders in the past two drafts (Adam Werner, Maximilian Prajpach and Petr Kvaca), but all are viewed as lottery tickets at this time.

If nothing else, this system is proof that hitting on your first rounders is never going to be enough to build a competitive NHL lineup.

Spencer Martin a fortress for Steelheads

Sean Lafortune — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 16:06:32 +0000

With size, athleticism, and quickness just for starters, Spencer Martin will be a hot goalie commodity at the 2013 NHL Draft.

One of the few 17-year-old starters in the OHL, Martin has carried the load for the Mississauga Steelheads and battled through some tough stretches early in the season. He did not look sharp through the final two months of 2012 before recovering this past month, highlighted by an outstanding showing at the CHL Top Prospects Game.

The Oakville, Ontario native currently has the Steelheads in a playoff spot which is impressive considering the scoring support he gets from the Steelheads, the league's second lowest-scoring team.

He also faces a lot of quality rubber. Frequent defensive breakdowns in front of him usually translate into prime scoring chances against, often with Martin having to make rapid saves in succession.

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Spencer Martin (G, 2013), Mississauga

A tall, butterfly-style goaltender with excellent agility and flexibility.. generally speaking, receives inadequate support from his blueline crew, yet frustrate shooters by routinely making highlight-reel saves - that he makes look easy due to his sharp reflexes and quick lateral movement ...focuses on keeping his body square to the puck .. demonstrates good fluidity and excellent push-off strength - and can go post-to-post in an instant - though can expose the five hole when moving laterally .. his super-quick reflexes match impressive skating ability - allowing him to play an agile, athletic game .. tends to crouch down too low as the play crosses the line, which in essence makes him smaller .. relies heavily on size and quickness to bail himself out, as he stays down too long and consequently requires a quicker recovery .. immediately drops to the butterfly on wraparounds, effectively taking away the bottom portion of the goal - but will neglect the centering pass in front by becoming over-fixated on the play behind him .. must continue to add muscle to a lean frame - although he already handles himself well in traffic as he is a bigger body and has no issues smothering the puck .. appears to sustain solid focus - and is starting to eliminate a habit of allowing untimely, soft goals .. assertive, hard working, competes and stays with plays .. aggressively challenges shooters and cuts down angles, sporting a quick, strong glove hand .. okay blocker, modest stickhandler .. must guard against over-pursuing and leaving the middle of the net exposed on rebounds and broken plays .. will need to work on his mental toughness moving forward - as well as rebound management, as he kicks out some juicy ones straight back out, especially when moving laterally.