Thomas Chabot – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Fantasy playoffs are upon us, the Blackhawks bring in another top prospect, Marco Rossi, Anthony Cirelli, and Quinton Byfield are producing in the middle of the ice as Troy Terry and Zach Benson are working the wings.

Scott Cullen — Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:27:53 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - MARCH 24: Vancouver Canucks center Marco Rossi (93) vies for the puck during the first period of an NHL hockey game between the Anaheim Ducks and the Vancouver Canucks on Tuesday, March 24, 2026 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, B.C. (Photo by Ethan Cairns/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, as fantasy playoffs are upon us, the Blackhawks bring in another top prospect, Marco Rossi, Anthony Cirelli, and Quinton Byfield are producing in the middle of the ice as Troy Terry and Zach Benson are working the wings.

#1 While it has been another tough season for the Chicago Blackhawks, they are getting a nice boost late in the season with the arrival of Anton Frondell, the third pick in last summer’s draft, who tallied 20 goals and eight assists for 28 points in 43 games for Djurgardens in the SHL. Frondell has arrived in Chicago, registered two assists in his first three NHL games, and is skating on the top line with Connor Bedard and Ryan Greene in addition to getting first unit power play time. He’s 18, so expectations need to be kept in check, but he’s also getting enough of an opportunity to make him immediately interesting for those in deep leagues.

#2 There may be some fantasy value to be found in players that are playing for teams out of the playoff picture. For example, it’s easy enough to dismiss the Vancouver Canucks as they have endured a brutal season, but centre Marco Rossi has produced 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in his past eight games, is getting first unit power play time and is thriving with linemates Liam Ohgren and Brock Boeser.

#3 With an established reputation as a strong two-way player, Tampa Bay Lightning centre Anthony Cirelli is getting a shot at an expanded offensive role, skating on the top line between Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel. In his past 12 games, Cirelli has produced 14 points (5 G, 9 A) and 21 shots on goal, with 13 of those 14 points coming at even strength. With 2.51 points per 60 minutes during five-on-five play this season, Cirelli ranks 22nd in the league. Not bad for a checking centre.

#4 He has missed some time with injuries, but Anaheim Ducks right winger Troy Terry has been on a good run since Christmas, producing 17 points (7 G, 10 A) with 29 shots on goal in 15 games. He is scoring better than a point per game this season, a feat he has not been able to accomplish in a full season. He was scratched from Thursday’s game at Calgary, so his reliability remains an issue but his productivity makes him a valuable player whenever he is in the lineup.

#5 There are so many great stories on the Buffalo Sabres this season, as the team is poised to return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since the 2010-2011 season, and one of those great stories is the play of 20-year-old winger Zach Benson. In his past six games, Benson has seven points (3 G, 4 A) with seven shots on goal. That shot rate needs improvement, but Benson is thriving on a line with Josh Norris and Josh Doan. When Benson is on the ice at five-on-five, the Sabres are outscoring opponents 39-22.

#6 As the Los Angeles Kings push for a playoff spot, centre Quinton Byfield has stepped up his game, with nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 20 shots on goal in his past seven contests. Consistency has been elusive for Byfield, as he had five points (4 G, 1 A) in the previous 17 games, but when he’s going, Byfield can be a physical force. He is currently skating on a line with Trevor Moore and Alex Laferriere while getting second-unit power play time.

#7 The Ottawa Senators are in a competitive battle for a playoff spot but they are dealing with serious injuries on the blueline. Jake Sanderson was already out of the lineup with an upper-body injury when Thomas Chabot suffered a broken arm that will keep him out for 4-to-8 weeks. Add in injuries to Nick Jensen and Dennis Gilbert and the Sens were forced to make changes, which included calling up 2024 first-round pick Carter Yakeumchuk from Belleville of the American Hockey League, where he had 36 points (10 G, 26 A) in 50 games. Yakemchuk has two points (1 G, 1 A) with four shots on goal in his first three NHL games and the injuries on Ottawa’s blueline may prompt the Sens to keep Yakemchuk and his offensive skills in the lineup. Some D to consider from the waiver wire: Damon Severson, who has 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 14 games this month, Rasmus Sandin, who has five points (2 G, 3 A) in his past seven games, and even Sens defenders Tyler Kleven and Jordan Spence, who have combined for 12 points in the past eight games.

#8 In the past month, New Jersey Devils right winger Connor Brown has been moved into a more offensive role and has delivered 14 points (4 G, 10 A) and 24 shots on goal in 13 games. He has been a reliable middle six winger in his NHL career, but he’s skating on a line with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, while also getting top-unit power play time. He is up to 36 points (14 G, 22 A) on the season, within striking distance of his career high of 43 points, set during the 2019-2020 season when he was with the Ottawa Senators.

#9 It has not been an easy season for Nashville Predators winger Jonathan Marchessault, but he has recorded 10 assists in his past 11 games, a veritable surge in production for a player who has just 28 points (11 G, 17 A) in 53 games. The veteran winger is playing on PP1 for the Predators and is skating on a line with Matthew Wood and Filip Forsberg, so he’s in a decent situation to produce late in the season.

#10 It’s been a similar situation for Anaheim Ducks veteran winger Alex Killorn, who has eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 17 shots on goal in his past 10 games, which is a significant improvement for a player who had 20 points in 63 games before that. The 36-year-old winger is skating on a line with veteran pivot Mikael Granlund and rookie right winger Bennett Sennecke, which is a strong enough situation to consider Killorn for some late-season value.

#11 As the Seattle Kraken try to stay in the playoff hunt, captain Jordan Eberle has contributed seven points (1 G, 6 A) in his past seven games. He is up to 23 goals on the season, which is his most in a season since 2017-2018, when he scored 25, so he is within range of that total. He has consistently been playing on Seattle’s top line with Matty Beniers at centre and there have been several wingers rotating through. Right now, it’s rookie Berkly Catton getting a shot on the left side.

#12 Staying in Seattle, right winger Kaapo Kakko is delivering quality results late in the season. In his past seven games, Kakko has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) with seven shots on goal. That shot rate is not enough to sustain that level of offensive production, but he provides useful secondary scoring, skating on a line with Chandler Stephenson and Bobby McMann.

#13 Early this season, the Utah Grizzlies winger Lawson Crouse was not playing a big part and his production was modest, managing nine points (4 G, 5 A) through his first 26 games. It’s gotten better throughout the season, and in his past seven games, he has six points (4 G, 2 A) and 24 hits, which is really where Crouse brings his most reliable value for fantasy managers. He has scored 20 goals for the fourth time in his career and it’s the fifth time in his career that he has recorded at least 190 hits. If you have a need on the wing at this point in the fantasy season, you could do worse than adding Crouse.

#14 There have been reports that the Toronto Maple Leafs are not inclined to give a qualifying offer to right winger Matias Maccelli this summer, but Maccelli has been one of the few Maple Leafs contributing consistently. Since the beginning of February, Maccelli has 16 points (7 G, 9 A) with 33 shots on goal in 20 games. He is tied with John Tavares for second on the team in scoring over that span, three points behind William Nylander and one point ahead of Matthew Knies. Most recently, he’s been skating on a line with Dakota Joshua and Bo Groulx, but that hasn’t deterred him.

#15 Although the wins aren’t coming easily, Maple Leafs goaltender Joseph Woll has been playing well late in the season while facing a heavy workload. In his past eight starts, Woll has a 2-4-2 record, but he has a .910 save percentage while facing an average of around 35 shots per game. The Leafs’ lack of success doesn’t help Woll’s value, but it is part of the reason that he’s still available in a decent percentage of leagues and he’s playing well enough that he could help a fantasy manager who needs a late-season upgrade between the pipes.

#16 While we’re considering goaltenders on teams that are out of the playoff race, look at St. Louis Blues netminder Joel Hofer, who has been unbeatable since the Olympic break. In nine games since the break, Hofer has a 7-0-2 record with a .955 save percentage! He has a .911 save percentage on the season and has recently overtaken Jordan Binnington in terms of starts, with Hofer at 36 and Binnington at 35. Perhaps this is the changing of the guard for the Blues, as Hofer has 13.44 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) and Binnington has -20.01 (GSAx), a stark difference in performance.

#17 There was some suspicion around the Olympic break that the Florida Panthers could be on the verge of shutting down a bunch of players with injuries because the playoffs were looking less and less likely, so there was not as much incentive for players to play through the injuries that they might when the team is mounting a Stanley Cup run. Aleksander Barkov has been out all season of course, but Brad Marchand is out, Anton Lundell will miss 2-6 weeks with an upper body injury, Evan Rodrigues is out 4-6 weeks with a broken finger, and Mackie Samoskevich is due to return soon, but he’s still out. That leaves forwards like Jesper Boqvist and Tomas Nosek playing bigger roles than would typically be expected of them.

#18 Philadelphia Flyers centre Christian Dvorak has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games, and he really has the trust of Flyers head coach Rick Tocchet. In the past 22 games, Dvorak has played more than 20 minutes 12 times, including a season-high 25:32 last week at San Jose. He is now averaging 18:28 of ice time per game, a career high, and his 44 points (15 G, 29 A) is also the high-water mark for his career. All of this is to suggest that, in a pinch, Dvorak could have late-season value for fantasy managers.

#19 It’s a little troubling for the Vegas Golden Knights, as they scramble for a playoff spot, that star centre Jack Eichel has hit a slump. They are hoping he has broken out of it with a three-point game last night against Washington. In his previous seven games, Eichel has generated 22 shots on goal while averaging more than 21 minutes of ice time per game, and yet he has managed just one assist. It would be a tad aggressive to go cutting Eichel at this stage of the season, especially when he’s generating shots at this rate, but it’s also possible that he doesn’t need to be in your fantasy lineup automatically. It’s not much better for Golden Knights right winger Mitch Marner, who has two assists and 19 shots on goal in the past eight games.

#20 Anaheim Ducks winger Cutter Gauthier is tied for the league lead with 11 goals in March, tied with Pavel Zacha. Gauthier ranks second in expected goals with 7.61 ixG, barely trailing Brady Tkachuk at 7.69. Other forwards that have been around the net, rounding out the top ten when it comes to individual expected goals: Zach Hyman (7.09), Brock Nelson (6.98), Alex DeBrincat (6.93). Beckett Sennecke (6.85), Bryan Rust (6.68), Rickard Rakell (6.60), Alexis Lafreniere (6.49), and Timo Meier (6.49).

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Young players who could have surprising value late in the season like Alexis Lafreniere, Gabe Perreault, Jimmy Snuggerud, Michael Misa, Marco Rossi and so much more!

Scott Cullen — Sat, 14 Mar 2026 20:37:53 +0000

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, young players who could have surprising value late in the season like Alexis Lafreniere, Gabe Perreault, Jimmy Snuggerud, Michael Misa, Marco Rossi and so much more!

#1 Even though the New York Rangers’ season has gone sideways, they are potentially a very interesting team down the stretch, as new players get better opportunities to play big roles. One of the players who is heating up is Alexis Lafreniere, who has 11 points (6 G, 5 A) and 16 shots on goal while averaging more than 19 minutes per game in his past six games. The first overall pick in the 2020 Draft is up to 44 points (19 G, 25 A) in 65 games, giving him a chance to surpass his career high of 57 points, set in 2023-2024. Not only is Lafreniere playing on the top power play unit, but he’s on the top line with Mika Zibanejad and…

#2 Rangers rookie Gabe Perreault, who was a first-round pick in 2023, has spent time in the American Hockey League during his first pro season. He had 17 points (10 G, 7 A) in 20 games with Hartford and Perreault managed a modest eight points in his first 26 games for the Rangers but has started to step into a bigger offensive role, especially once Artemi Panarin was removed from the Rangers lineup. In his past six games, Perreault has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 15 shots on goal while playing first line and first unit power play for the Blueshirts. This is how it’s supposed to go for a team that is out of the race – they should use the rest of the season to give their skilled young players better offensive opportunities, and it appears that Perreault is ready to make the most of his opportunity.

#3 That’s not unlike what is happening with St. Louis Blues rookie winger Jimmy Snuggerud. The 2022 first-round pick has been with the Blues all season, but he is now riding shotgun with Robert Thomas on both the top line and first unit power play. In his past 14 games, Snuggerud has 19 points (8 G, 11 A) and 37 shots on goal and has moved up to fifth in rookie scoring with 34 points (15 G, 19 A) in 53 games. Considering who is available to fill the prime roles in St. Louis, Snuggerud looks like he should stay on the top line for the rest of the season.

#4 The San Jose Sharks have been patient with rookie Michael Misa, the second pick in the 2025 Draft, but as the team continues to push for a playoff spot, the 19-year-old centre is turning into a big contributor. In eight games since the Olympic break, Misa has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 10 shots on goal. Certainly, the scoring would be more sustainable with a higher shot rate, but he is starting to become a factor while skating on a line with William Eklund and Tyler Toffoli and Misa is a highly skilled player who is going to thrive as he gets more ice time with quality linemates.

#5 Coming into season, Matias Maccelli looked like he was getting a good opportunity in Toronto and might have had the chance to play on the top line as a lower-cost replacement for Mitch Marner. While that hasn’t happened as often as might have been hoped, Maccelli has stepped up lately. Since the beginning of February, he has 11 points (7 G, 4 A) with 22 shots on goal in 11 games and he gets second unit power play time while currently skating on a line with Nicholas Robertson and AHL call-up Bo Groulx.

#6 There is a bit of a run of injuries hitting teams late in the season and it could provide opportunities to find value. In Colorado, captain Gabriel Landeskog is out week to week with a lower-body injury after taking a shot in a tender spot from teammate Cale Makar. With Landeskog and Artturi Lehkonen out, it appears that the Avs are going to slide Nazem Kadri to left wing on the top line, which is a prime opportunity for Kadri to get going offensively. He had a little slump at the end of his tenure in Calgary, so Kadri has just two points (1 G, 1 A) despite recording 23 shots on goal in his past seven games.

#7 Toronto Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews took a knee-on-knee hit from Anaheim Ducks defenceman Radko Gudas on Thursday night and Matthews is going to be out for at least a couple of weeks before his status is re-evaluated. The Leafs are 11 points out of a playoff spot, so there is zero incentive to rush Matthews back into the lineup. John Tavares will naturally move up the depth chart, but Max Domi probably needs to slide into the second-line centre role. This shuffling could mean an opening in Toronto’s top six for someone like Nicholas Robertson or Matias Maccelli.

#8 The Ottawa Senators lost defenceman Jake Sanderson on a week-to-week basis after suffering an upper-body injury from a hit by Seattle Kraken defenceman Brandon Montour. Sanderson has been a standout performer on the Senators blueline this season, so it’s going to be a big loss to have him out of the lineup while the Sens are trying to rally for a playoff spot but with Sanderson out, veteran Thomas Chabot will take over the quarterback role on Ottawa’s No. 1 power play. Chabot has six points (1 G, 5 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past six games and played a season-high 28:32 against Montreal on Wednesday.

#9 No team has seen their season crash harder than the Vancouver Canucks, but centre Marco Rossi is getting acclimated to his new squad. He does have six points (2 G, 4 A) in his past five games, but that also comes with just four shots on goal. Even if Rossi isn’t a high-volume shooter, he needs to generate more than that. He gets first unit play time for the Canucks and is skating on a line with Liam Ohgren and Brock Boeser. Given the struggles of Elias Pettersson, the Canucks need a centre to generate offence and Rossi is at least a viable answer to that problem.

#10 Continuing the theme of young players on teams outside the playoff picture, consider Chicago Blackhawks centre Frank Nazar, who has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 12 shots on goal during a five-game point streak. Nazar gets time on PP1 in Chicago while skating between veteran wingers Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen, so he is going to get his chances to continue scoring. Nazar is up to 32 points (10 G, 22 A) in 49 games this season, despite scoring on 9.5 percent of his shots on goal, a relatively low rate for a skilled player in a top six role.

#11 As the Columbus Blue Jackets continue to hunt down a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, centre Adam Fantilli is elevating his production. In his past 10 games, he has 11 points (6 G, 5 A) with 25 shots on goal while averaging 19:53 of ice time per game. He has ascended to the role of first line centre in Columbus and currently has Cole Sillinger and Kirill Marchenko on his wings at even strength. For a little extra fantasy appeal, Fantilli has recorded 20 hits in those 10 games, giving him 105 hits in 65 games this season.

#12 Moving to a veteran winger on a top team, the Buffalo Sabres’ Jason Zucker continues to fly under the radar – available in many leagues – largely because he’s in a secondary role with the Sabres, but he’s crushing it. In his past six games, Zucker has seven points (5 G, 2 A) with 18 shots on goal. He has hit 20 goals for the eighth time in his career, and he has a good thing going on a line with Ryan McLeod and Jack Quinn.

#13 New Jersey Devils winger Connor Brown is getting a fantastic opportunity late in the season, skating on right wing of a line with Jack Hughes at centre and Jesper Bratt at left wing. In his past six games, Brown has six points (1 G, 5 A) and 11 shots on goal and he’s playing nearly 19 minutes per game, so the opportunities are there for Brown to have a bigger impact down the stretch.

#14 As the Boston Bruins continue to battle for a playoff spot, veteran winger Viktor Arvidsson has shown that he can be a valuable contributor. In his past eight games, he has eight points (4 G, 4 A) with 18 shots on goal. He’s skating on a line with Pavel Zacha and Casey Mittelstadt, a veteran trio that might not attract a lot of attention, but they have been getting the job done. Among lines that have played at least 300 five-on-five minutes, the Bruins’ trio ranks fourth with 69.7 GF%, ranking fifth in both goals for and goals against per 60 minutes.

#15 Getting a shot on the Dallas Stars’ top line, Mavrik Bourque is starting to show that he can be a bona fide scorer in the NHL. Bourque has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) and 31 shots on goal in his past 12 games and getting the chance to skate alongside Wyatt Johnston and Jason Robertson is a prime opportunity for Bourque to deliver in a primary role that can benefit both the player and team in the long run. With Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz out of the lineup with injuries, the Stars needed someone to step up and Bourque has done it.

#16 The Penguins seem to have found something with their acquisition of Yegor Chinakhov, who they acquired from Columbus for Danton Heinen and a second-round pick. In his past 17 games, Chinakhov has put up 15 points (8 G, 7 A) and 48 shots on goal, which is very encouraging for him being able to contribute long-term for the Penguins. Right now, he’s on a line with Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust, but the Penguins are still missing an injured Sidney Crosby and suspended Evgeni Malkin.

#17 Back to the theory of young players on non-playoff teams, Matthew Wood is showing some intriguing upside for the Nashville Predators. In his past 11 games, Wood has nine points (6 G, 3 A) and 20 shots on goal. He has moved around the lineup in his first NHL season, including time on the Predators’ top line but, right now, he is working on a line with fellow youngsters Reid Schaefer and Zachary L’Heroux.

#18 Even though he is not the primary scoring option on the blueline for the Buffalo Sabres, a role that is occupied by Rasmus Dahlin, defenceman Bowen Byram continues to provide value for fantasy managers. In his past 10 games, Byram has eight assists and 20 shots on goal and is playing nearly 24 minutes per game, which is not exactly the profile of a second-tier defender.

#19 The New York Rangers were missing Adam Fox for a while – he has since returned to the lineup – but Vladislav Gavrikov moved into a more offensive role, scoring 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 19 shots on goal in a dozen games. With Fox active again, Gavrikov may not hold quite as much value, but he’s playing 23 minutes a game for a Rangers team that is still relatively productive.

#20 Former Calgary Flames defencemen are struggling. Rasmus Andersson has just a couple of points and 11 shots on goal in his past 10 games and he’s not the primary option on the blueline in Vegas the same way that he was in Calgary. Mackenzie Weegar has been struggling, too. He has just one assist and six shots on goal in his past seven games, the past four of which have been with the Utah Mammoth since he was acquired at the trade deadline. Neither of these ex-Flames defenders is the primary blueline option on their new teams, so their fantasy appeal is not nearly as solid as it was during their best days with the Flames.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2025-26 NHL YEARBOOK – OTTAWA SENATORS – Team Preview/Player Profiles/Predictions

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 19:52:02 +0000

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 29: Ottawa Senators Center Dylan Cozens (24) skates with the puck during the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup playoffs first round game five between the Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs on April 29, 2025, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

After missing the playoffs for seven straight seasons, the Senators finally returned to the postseason in 2024-2025, recording 97 points (45-30-7). They lost in six games in the first round to the Toronto Maple Leafs, which was disappointing but not altogether unexpected. They were a middling possession team, ranking 14th in Corsi percentage (50.3) and 18th in expected goals percentage (49.6). Ottawa scored 7.68 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranked 16th. They also ranked 16th with 7.09 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play, so this is a very average team based on those numbers. What lifted them above that, however, is goaltending. Linus Ullmark, Anton Forsberg, and Leevi Merilainen combined to give the Sens a .908 save percentage which helped boost a mostly average team into the playoffs.

What’s Changed?

The Senators did not stray too far from their playoff roster, maintaining a lot of continuity heading into this season. They signed veteran checking centre Lars Eller, who had been with the Washington Capitals, winger Arthur Kaliyev, who was last with the New York Rangers, and made a savvy addition to their blueline, trading for Jordan Spence of the Los Angeles Kings. Forsberg signed as a free agent in Los Angeles, but the Senators already had Merilainen ready to step into the backup role, so that should be a seamless transition for them in goal. Free agent forward Adam Gaudette signed with the St. Louis Blues and veteran defenceman Travis Hamonic remains without a contract. Those are not a lot of changes, so the Senators have to be looking to build on last season’s success with the vast majority of the team that brought that success.

What would success look like?

At this point, the playoffs have to be expected for the Senators, though it’s obviously not to be taken for granted. The team had middle-of-the-road numbers except for goaltending, so if they are going to be assured of success, they need to play better in all situations, so that they are above average in all of those aspects. If the Sens could be a Top 10 or Top 12 team at five-on-five, five-on-four, and four-on-five, and have strong goaltending on top of that, then that’s a team that could be expected to do more than just show up in the playoffs. Winning a playoff round would be a successful season for the Sens in 2025-2026.

What could go wrong?

There is a fine line when a team depends on its goaltending, because it’s an unpredictable position and it’s just one guy between the pipes, with no one to pick him up if he’s not performing. So, if the Senators don’t get strong goaltending, then suddenly they could be left scrambling for a playoff spot, but that’s precisely why the team needs to show improvement. They have quality talent with depth to handle potential injuries, so that should mitigate any down sides, but the Senators are not safe enough in the playoff picture to be expected to just cruise past every hurdle, so an injury to a key player, a goaltending slump, some bad bounces at the wrong time could still prevent them from making a second straight playoff appearance.

Top Breakout Candidate

After he was acquired from the San Jose Sharks last season, Fabian Zetterlund arrived in Ottawa and produced shockingly little. He had five points (2 G, 3 A) and 40 shots on goal with the Senators and then had zero points and six shots on goal in six playoff games against the Maple Leafs. The Senators responded by giving Zetterlund a three-year, $12.825 million contract, a vote of confident for the sturdy young winger. More importantly, Zetterlund looks like he could get a shot with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle on the Senators’ top line and if that happens, then the opportunity is there for Zetterlund to have the best offensive output of his career.

FORWARDS

Tim Stützle

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	36	53	89	1.09

The German center compiled what was arguably the best season of his career in 2024-25. Even though his 24 goals and 76 points fell short of the 39 goals and 91-point regular season highs he established during his 2022-23 campaign, Stützle boosted his overall worth by having the best defensive performance of his career. According to Evolving-Hockey's 'total defence' (DEF) metric that combines all of a player's five-on-five and shorthanded contributions into one encompassing metric, Stützle more than quadrupled his previous best (4.1 DEF in 2024-25, 0.8 in 2021-22) for defensive value. Stützle has a substantial impact on the Senators' offence and defence when he is on the ice. If there are any knocks to the center's game, they rest exclusively on his 47.8 percent faceoff success rate and the fact that he often does not play selfishly enough at five-on-five. The good news is that he improved in the faceoff dot for a fourth consecutive season, while acknowledging in his end-of-season media availability that he knows that he needs to shoot more. If Stützle can maintain his defensive gains while winning more draws and electing to shoot more, he could be in line for a massive season. More puck possession and any improvement on a five-on-five shot rate (5.43) that was by far the worst of his career will improve this team's even strength scoring woes. Yet, even without those improvements, 'wins above replacement' (WAR) metric rated only two forwards (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl) as contributing more value than Stützle last season.

Brady Tkachuk

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	40	37	77	0.95

The Senators' captain bolstered his reputation as a shot volume-producing machine. Of the forwards who logged more than 500 minutes of five-on-five ice time during the regular season, no player in the league generated more shots than Tkachuk's 11.82 per 60 minutes. Unfortunately, the rugged forward sustained a lower-body injury during the 4 Nations Face-Off, which limited his availability and effectiveness down the stretch leading into the postseason. Tkachuk's 29 goals and 55 points in 72 games represented his lowest production totals since the Covid-shortened 2020-21 season, in which he recorded 17 goals and 36 points in 56 games. Had he enjoyed better health, he undoubtedly would have surpassed the 30-goal threshold for a fourth consecutive season. Despite lower production totals, his five-on-five shot rate was not far removed from his career norm, while his shooting percentage (5.67) was the worst of his career. If he continues to generate that volume while his shooting percentage normalizes, his production should comfortably return to previous levels. Thanks to that shot volume and his willingness to go to the dirty areas, it feels like in one of these years, if he gets the bounces and his shooting percentage climbs into the low to mid-teens, Brady will score 45 to 50 goals. He continues to play with a physical edge that makes him such a unique and dynamic player. He joined Vincent Trocheck and Tom Wilson as one of only three players last season to record more than 25 goals and 200 hits.

Drake Batherson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	29	37	66	0.80

The Senators' right winger is often paradoxical in the sense that he is a model of consistency while leaving a feeling that he is capable of more. Batherson has played in all of the Senators' 82 regular season games in each of the last three seasons while compiling more than 20 goals and 60 points in each of them, being one of only 11 players who surpassed those two thresholds and recorded more than 100 hits. Batherson scored 26 goals while contributing a career-best 68 points in 2024-25, but the organization was compelled to make a move at the trade deadline to give their talented right winger the play-driving center he needed to not only generate offence but help take the puck and sustain play in the offensive zone. Following the March 7th trade deadline, the 27-year-old led the Senators in scoring with 10 goals and 19 points in the team's final 21 games. There is an expectation that Batherson will return to play on the Senators' second line alongside center Dylan Cozens, but there may be a chance the right winger could replace Claude Giroux on the team's first line. If he does, it would represent an incredible opportunity to shatter his previous career highs.

Dylan Cozens

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	20	38	58	0.71

Acquired by the Senators in a stunning trade deadline deal that moved the popular Josh Norris to Buffalo, Cozens' addition immediately began paying dividends. There was no secret to the success; the change represented a better and healthier fit. Where Josh Norris was a center who was strong on faceoffs and a finisher, Cozens was a big and physical center who could take the puck from the Senators' end and navigate it safely through the neutral zone, creating clean entries and sustained offensive zone pressure. After scoring 31 goals and adding 37 helpers during his career-best 2022-23 campaign, Cozens has failed to replicate that success. Granted, it may have been naive to believe that those numbers were sustainable, given the fact that his shooting percentage was approximately five percent higher than his career average. Through his first 11 games with the Senators, he tallied three goals and nine points while generating 29 shots on goal. When he was on the ice at five-on-five per, the Senators generated 48.06 percent of the shots (CF%), 50.36 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 60 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 47.10 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). In his last 10 games, the center contributed two goals, five assists and 20 shots while the Senators' five-on-five shot and goal metrics cratered. These are incredibly small sample sizes, but if the Senators are serious about transitioning from a prospective playoff team to a true Stanley Cup contender, they will need their second line to not only be productive but also tilt the ice in their team's favour against the opposition's best.

Claude Giroux

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	15	40	55	0.69

Heading into the offseason, there were genuine concerns about whether the 37-year-old veteran remained a fit for the Ottawa Senators. Giroux's shot rate (iCF/60), shot on goal rate (iSF/60), goal rate (G/60), and expected goal rate (xG/60) were all easily the lowest of his career. Collectively, the Senators struggled to produce goals at five-on-five. Only the Nashville Predators finished with fewer five-on-five goals than the Senators. Giroux's offensive decline in 2024-25 could be a microcosm of the Senators' problems. Too often, it felt like the team chased quality at the expense of quantity, and he could afford to be more selfish with the puck. He scored on 10.9 percent of his shots last season, so he can still fire the puck. He also contributed 15 goals and 50 points, but it is reasonable to wonder how much his production would decline if he stopped playing the majority of his minutes with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle. In fairness to Giroux, HockeyViz's data demonstrates he has continued to maintain strong isolated impacts on both offence and defence. Having the league's best faceoff rate, winning 61.5 percent, serves as a nice insulator for Stützle on important draws, but if the offence continues to diminish, it could create an opportunity for Drake Batherson or Fabian Zetterlund on the first line.

Fabian Zetterlund

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	22	25	47	0.57

Like Dylan Cozens, the addition of Fabian Zetterlund in the waning minutes of the trade deadline was an unexpected but welcomed depth move. The Swedish winger tallied 24 goals and 44 points during San Jose's 2023-24 season and was well on his way to surpassing those totals after he was dealt to the Senators. Unfortunately, for the second time in his career, Zetterlund struggled to produce following a deadline trade. During the 2022-23 campaign, he was dealt to the Sharks and failed to record a goal in 22 games. With the Senators, he only tallied two goals and five points in 20 games. His usage began modestly, starting on the fourth line with second power play unit duties. Zetterlund would eventually ascend the lineup, playing a variety of roles, but his lack of production elicited concern. The Senators signed him to a three-year extension carrying a $4.25 million AAV, so they do not share those worries. If his underlying metrics were commensurately unimpressive, it would be troubling. Instead, he ranked second on the team behind only Brady Tkachuk in several individual offensive stats, such as shot rate, expected goals, and scoring chances. Zetterlund was shooting the puck and creating chances at a career-high rate in Ottawa, but it coincided with a team-worst 3.13 shooting percentage at five-on-five. If he continues to generate high-rate stats while enjoying better luck, his production will inevitably match or better his career norms.

Ridly Greig

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	16	29	45	0.56

Ridly Greig's sophomore season represented a marked step forward in many respects. He was the Senators' swiss-army-knife, moving up and down the lineup, filling a hole wherever needed. He averaged 17:05 of ice time per game last season, which marked a two-and-a-half-minute improvement over his previous year's number. This jump reflected the trust that Travis Green and the coaching staff had in Greig's defensive abilities. His most common linemates were Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio, and the trio was tasked nightly with the responsibility of shutting down the opposition's top line. This duty allowed him to shine in a pest role, where his knack for getting underneath the opponents' skin was effective. His line played well given their difficult assignments, generating 46.76 percent of the shots (CF%), 51.25 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 48.77 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 51.41 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). This line will likely start the year together in 2024-25, but the organization has historically referred to Greig as a center. If any of the Senators' centers fall to injury, expect Greig to wind up back in the middle. In the interim, he can be expected to play a significant defensive role on the third line and first penalty kill unit.

Shane Pinto

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	23	26	49	0.61

Having lost the first half of his 2023-24 season to suspension following a league investigation into a gambling account, the 2024-25 campaign represented a blank slate for Pinto. The Senators' third line center responded by establishing new career highs in goals (21) and points (37) while predominantly getting matched against the opposition's most skilled forwards. The 2024-25 campaign is an important one for the center, who will turn 25 years old in November. Pinto is in the last year of a two-year extension that he signed in July of 2024, carrying a $3.75 million AAV. As one of the Senators' best defensive forwards, he has an opportunity to cash in on a long-term extension with a big year. The challenge will be to expand his offensive game. Goal scoring has never been the issue, as he averaged more than 21 goals per 82 games across the last three seasons. Zetterlund's addition at the deadline bumped Pinto from second-unit power play duties, and he finished the season averaging 1:07 of PP/TOI per game. Travis Green preferred to use the Pinto line out after a power play to match up against the opposition's skilled players. Adam Gaudette's departure as a free agent should create the opportunity to get more minutes on the power play, which should help boost his offensive numbers.

David Perron

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	18	24	42	0.57

Hardships characterized Perron's 2024-25 season campaign. His first half was derailed by a back injury and an illness to his unborn daughter that necessitated surgery during pregnancy and after she was born. Perron took a leave of absence from the team and did not play regularly until the end of January. He ultimately played 43 games for the Senators, scoring nine goals and 16 points and being the team's nominee for the Masterton Trophy. The 37-year-old is one of the slowest skaters in the league. Of all the forwards in the NHL who played more than 500 minutes, only four skaters recorded fewer 18-plus miles per hour bursts than Perron. Despite that lack of speed, he remains an effective player. He finished third on the Senators amongst regulars in individual expected goals per 60 behind Brady Tkachuk and Fabian Zetterlund. It speaks to his skill set that he can overcome his size and speed. Perron's competitiveness, ability to protect the puck, and willingness to go to the net and dig the puck out along the wall create an opportunity for his team to extend shifts in the offensive zone. This diversification of skills allows him to play in a variety of roles. Although he may be slated to start the season on the fourth line, he can seamlessly ascend the lineup and play in a more skilled role.

DEFENCE

Jake Sanderson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	14	48	62	0.77

It was almost a tale of two seasons for the smooth-skating Sanderson. He was supposed to start alongside his regular playing partner, Artem Zub, but a concussion and fractured foot injury forced the defenceman to miss 26 games in the first half of the season. Zub's absence and the organization's lack of faith in their depth options put the team in the uncomfortable position of relying on veteran Travis Hamonic. When this pairing was on the ice in their almost 400 five-on-five minutes together, the Senators generated 49.00 percent of the shots (CF%), 50.67 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 24.05 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 46.74 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). When he played with Zub, the numbers climbed to 51.28 CF%, 52.38 SF%, 47.38 GF%, and 55.59 xGF%. Separating Sanderson from one of the worst statistical defencemen in the league last season will do wonders for the player and the Senators. Of all the defencemen in the league last season who played more than 500 five-on-five minutes, only four had a lower on-ice shooting percentage than Sanderson. The worst? Travis Hamonic. Despite the circumstances, he finished with a career high of 11 goals and 57 points in 80 games, becoming the sixth defenceman in franchise history to record more than 50 points in a season. Sanderson is already a great defensive player, but Ottawa's improved defensive depth should allow him the opportunity he needs to continue to strengthen his offensive numbers and allow him to contend for a Norris Trophy.

Thomas Chabot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	8	34	42	0.60

The 2024-25 season was an important one for the longest-tenured member of the Ottawa Senators. After undergoing corrective surgery to resolve a wrist problem that had afflicted him for years, Chabot responded with one of the most complete seasons of his career. He contributed nine goals and 45 points while posting significantly improved defensive metrics. Less was more for the Senators and Chabot as the defenceman's 23:01 of ice time per game represented his lowest average ice time since he averaged 17:31 per game as a rookie in 2017-18. Having a regular defensive partner in Nick Jensen assuredly helped, too. For years, Chabot's performance suffered because of injuries, overuse and a lack of continuity. In 2024-25, he put together one of his best seasons as a pro. His 'wins above replacement' (WAR) metric rated Chabot as creating the fifth-highest amount of value amongst NHL defencemen. For the first half of the season, he had one of the highest WARs in the entire league, before Nick Jensen's hip injury impacted his effectiveness down the stretch. From October through December, this pairing was one of the best in the league, with the Senators generating 54.52 percent of the shots (CF%), 54.98 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 59.62 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 54.49 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). If the pairing can approach that level in 2025-26, Chabot should be in line for another strong season.

Nick Jensen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	3	16	19	0.26

Acquired last summer with a draft selection in a trade for Jakob Chychrun, the deal was panned in some circles because it represented a sell-low value considering the opportunity cost used to acquire Chychrun the year prior. Rather than continue the previous regime's pattern of chasing names, Steve Staios and his staff prioritized good fits, and Jensen was one last season. His bottom line only shows three goals and 21 points in 71 games played, but his on-ice contributions and impact on partner Thomas Chabot were unmistakable. Jensen's ability to skate, retrieve pucks and move the puck competently served as a nice complement to Chabot. But, once Jensen suffered a chronic hip injury, it sank the pairing's numbers. In their final 43 games, the Senators only generated 48.40 percent of the shots (CF%), 44.74 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 46.67 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 44.33 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). Jensen turns 35 years old this September, so it is reasonable to expect some level of decline in his game, but it will be worth monitoring how he recovers from this injury. The organization remains optimistic that he will be ready to start the season, but they need more than him to be available. The Senators need Jensen to resemble the player he was for the first three months of the 2024-25 season if they are to continue their ascent in the Eastern Conference.

Jordan Spence

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	4	27	31	0.40

Heading into the offseason, the Senators' most significant need was to address their quality of depth on right defence. Thanks to the injuries that Artem Zub and Nick Jensen suffered last season, it became clear that the Senators could ill afford to give minutes and significant responsibilities to players who were simply out of their element. The addition of Spence serves as an insulator on that right side, and he is a good one. In 79 games for the Kings last season, the 24-year-old recorded four goals and 28 points while averaging 16:47 of ice time per game. His underlying metrics were excellent. When Spence was on the ice at five-on-five, the Kings generated 56.80 percent of the shots (CF%), 56.98 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 65.43 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 56.88 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). He did play sheltered minutes on one of the better defensive teams in the league, so that is something to be mindful of. He will likely be partnered with Tyler Kleven on the third pairing to start the season, but as an undersized defenceman, he could draw out for Nik Matinpalo depending on the matchup. At the very least, his exceptional puck-moving ability brings a dynamic to the right side that was previously lacking, and his presence affords the Senators the patience to develop the well-regarded prospect, Carter Yakemchuk, at the AHL level.

Goal

Linus Ullmark

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
63	32	22	5	5	.910	2.75

Boston's loss was most certainly Ottawa's gain last year, as they got a chance to trot out one half of the league's most formidable tandem en route to the franchise's first postseason appearance since 2017. Linus Ullmark was crucial in Ottawa's step forward, providing the kind of consistency he's been counted on for years now; he rarely puts up games full of highlight-worthy saves, but his technique is hard to shake and it's rare he'll put up more than a handful of truly bad performances over the course of the entire year. And while prospect Mads Søgaard didn't quite live up to the hype once again during his limited NHL appearances, fellow prospect Leevi Merilainen was more than up to the task -- and he'll enter next season as the surprising backup darling to Ullmark as Ottawa looks to prove they can string together consecutive postseason appearances.

The biggest question mark for Ottawa will be just how many games Merilainen can take on over the course of the regular season, since Ullmark plays his best hockey when he's able to manage his workload and split starts more regularly. If Merilainen struggles to step into a true tandem role, Ullmark's health becomes a concern. For a team that spent more than a few years desperately trying to chase the reliable presence Craig Anderson brought to the crease, though, Ullmark is a welcome face - and if Merilainen is able to continue progressing as a tandem backup, Ottawa could become a real threat.

NHL: 20 FANTASY POINTS – The NHL season is winding down, some players that are finishing strong, like rookies Will Smith, Cutter Gauthier, Jackson Blake, as well as veterans Duchene and Gallagher.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 11 Apr 2025 17:15:05 +0000

CALGARY, AB - FEBRUARY 23: San Jose Sharks Center William Smith (2) skates with the puck during the first period of an NHL game between the Calgary Flames and the San Jose Sharks on February 23, 2025, at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB. (Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, with the NHL season winding down, some players that are finishing strong, like Sharks rookie Will Smith, Ducks rookie Cutter Gauthier, and Hurricanes rookie Jackson Blake, as well as veterans like Matt Duchene, Brendan Gallagher.

#1 San Jose Sharks rookie Will Smith was brought along slowly at the start of the season, with limited ice time and healthy scratched for some games, but he has really hit his stride in the second half of the season. In his first 40 games, Smith had 15 points (6 G, 9 A) with 56 shots on goal while playing a little more than 14 minutes per game. In 30 games since then, Smith has 29 points (11 G, 18 A) with 65 shots on goal while averaging 17:30 of ice time per game. He had a goal and three assists in Wednesday’s 8-7 overtime loss at Minnesota, playing more than 20 minutes for the third time in his past five games.

#2 It’s not as if he is unknown, but the season that 34-year-old Dallas Stars centre Matt Duchene has put together has probably flown under the radar a bit. He was held off the scoresheet Thursday night, snapping a seven-game point streak, during which he had 10 points (3 G, 7 A), lifting him to 81 points (30 G, 51 A) for the season. It is the second time in his career that Duchene has surpassed 80 points. The first was in 2021-2022 when he was with Nashville.

#3 Buffalo Sabres centre Peyton Krebs has turned into an unlikely source of offensive production late in the season. In his past nine games, Krebs has eight points (3 G, 5 A), albeit with just 13 shots on goal, so maybe not the most sustainable production. Nevertheless, he has tied career highs with nine goals and 26 points and has been a solid two-way centre for the Sabres and Buffalo has outscored the opposition 40-35 with Krebs on the ice during five-on-five situations.

#4 Veteran Montreal Canadiens right winger Brendan Gallagher has stepped up his game as the Habs make a strong late push for a playoff spot. In his past dozen games, Gallagher has 13 points (6 G, 7 A) with 26 shots on goal. He had just five points in his previous 18 games, so this rise in production has come at just the right time and the crease-crashing winger is up to 21 goals and 38 points on the season, his most in both categories since the 2019-2020 season.

#5 The Anaheim Ducks are not in contention for a playoff spot, but they are getting to see what their future could look like, and they are getting some quality production out of second-year centre Leo Carlsson and rookie left winger Cutter Gauthier late in the season. Since the beginning of February, Carlsson has contributed 28 points (11 G, 17 A) with 43 shots on goal in 28 games. Gauthier scored his 20th goal of the season Thursday at Los Angeles, and since the 4 Nations Face-Off, he has 21 points (11 G, 10 A) with 70 shots on goal in 25 games.

#6 Carolina Hurricanes rookie right winger Jackson Blake continues to make great progress and is finishing his first NHL season skating on the Hurricanes’ top line, alongside Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis as well as getting first unit power play time for the ‘Canes. Since the trade deadline, Blake has 10 points (5 G, 5 A) with 37 shots on goal in 15 games.

#7 Second year Philadelphia Flyers left winger Tyson Foerster is playing hard even as the Flyers have fallen out of playoff contention. In his past eight games, Foerster has contributed nine points (6 G, 3 A) with 20 shots on goal. He recorded the first hat trick of his career on Wednesday against the New York Rangers and is up to 22 goals for the season. He is skating on a line with Noah Cates and Bobby Brink in addition to getting first unit power play time for the Flyers.

#8 Ottawa Senators defenceman Thomas Chabot has had an excellent all-around season and is finishing the season in fine form. In his past eight games, Chabot has seven points (2 G, 5 A) with 12 shots on goal and 22 blocked shots. Jake Sanderson is the quarterback on Ottawa’s top power play, so Chabot has only managed seven power play points this season, but his 40 points represents the third time that he has hit that threshold in his NHL career. Moreover, the Senators have outshot, out-chanced, and outscored the opposition with Chabot on the ice.

#9 When the Colorado Avalanche acquired Charlie Coyle at the trade deadline, it was not exactly an earth-shattering deal. Coyle had struggled in Boston this season, putting up 22 points (15 G, 7 A) in 61 games. He didn’t do much upon first arriving in Colorado, managing two assists in 13 games, but Coyle has started to turn things around, with seven points (1 G, 6 A) during a four-game point streak. While he is centering Miles Wood and Jimmy Vesey at even strength, Coyle is getting first unit power play time with Nathan MacKinnon nursing an injury.

#10 This has been a forgettable season for the New York Islanders, but they have seen quality development from right winger Simon Holmstrom, who has seven points (3 G, 4 A) during a four-game point streak. After scoring 25 points as a rookie last season, Holmstrom has produced 45 points (20 G, 25 A) this season and is holding a regular top six spot in the lineup, skating on a line with Maxim Tsyplakov and Jean-Gabriel Pageau.

#11 Joel Eriksson Ek returned to the Minnesota Wild lineup for the first time in more than six weeks and he buried four goals on eight shots in Minnesota’s 8-7 overtime win against San Jose. Eriksson Ek has 54 shots on goal in his past 13 games and that kind of shot generation does offer more support for his point production. Eriksson Ek gets first unit power play time in Minnesota and skates between wingers Marcus Johansson and Matt Boldy at even strength.

#12 Winnipeg Jets defenceman Neal Pionk returned to action Thursday after missing almost a month with a lower-body injury. Despite missing that time, Pionk has enjoyed a strong season, and his 37 points (9 G, 28 A) is his highest point total since 2019-2020. Pionk tends to offer value for fantasy managers because he delivers hits and blocked shots – he is two blocks away from his third straight season with at least 100 in both categories.

#13 Moving to the Calgary Flames from the Philadelphia Flyers has not brought immediate results for winger Joel Farabee, who is in the midst of a 14-game stretch without a goal, and he only has three assists in that span. Farabee is skating on a line with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman, two veterans who have shown that they can consistently control play, but Farabee also has an on-ice shooting percentage of 4.4 percent in Calgary, and that has to improve.

#14 It is understandable that a winger like the Oilers’ Zach Hyman will see his production fall off when Connor McDavid is out with an injury, so maybe he will be rejuvenated now that No. 97 has returned to action. Hyman has gone six games without a point, recording a dozen shots on goal. Hyman’s goal production has been cut in half, from 54 last year to 27 this season, but this late slump is difficult for fantasy managers, especially now that McDavid is back in the lineup.

#15 There is a similar situation in Colorado, except going in the other direction, as Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen has just one assist in his past nine games. It could be encouraging that Lehkonen has 21 shots on goal in his past five games – he’s getting chances – but there is also the possibility that Nathan MacKinnon will be held out of the Avs lineup late in the season as they try to ensure that their superstar forward is healthy for the playoffs, and that makes it less likely that Lehkonen will bounce back too much before the postseason.

#16 It’s not just MacKinnon that could be done for the regular season as there are other stars that are dealing with injuries and may not return during the regular season. That includes Leon Draisaitl, Jack Eichel, Sam Bennett, Dylan Holloway, Elias Pettersson, Filip Chytil, Aliaksei Protas, and Gabriel Vilardi, all of whom offer value to fantasy managers.

#17 Chicago Blackhawks left winger Teuvo Teravainen has had a relatively productive season, tallying 57 points (15 G, 42 A), but his shot rate is declining, and he is slumping because of it. He has just one assist in his past seven games but also has just six shots on goal, and that is more consistent with his shot rate this season, which is down from 1.87 per game last season to 1.37 per game this season. He is skating on a line with rookie Frank Nazar and Tyler Bertuzzi, which should be competent enough to generate some offence, but Teravainen isn’t right now.

#18 Since March 20, the leading goaltenders in terms of save percentage (minimum five appearances): Darcy Kuemper (.942), Jake Oettinger (.942), Anthony Stolarz (.936), Anton Forsberg (.935), Andrei Vasilevskiy (.934), Connor Hellebuyck (.930), Casey DeSmith (.922), Sergei Bobrovsky (.921), Jordan Binnington (.920), and James Reimer (.920). While there are plenty of expected names – the top goaltenders in the league continue to play well – backups like Forsberg and DeSmith have value when they play, and Reimer has backstopped Buffalo’s late-season surge. Reimer is perhaps the most surprising and thus more available for fantasy managers.

#19 Since the 4 Nations Face-Off in February, Artemi Panarin and Tage Thompson are tied for the league lead with 13 five-on-five goals, ahead of David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie (both Bruins have 11), Jason Robertson and John Tavares, who both have 10. Cutter Gauthier, Jordan Kyrou, Kyle Connor, and Kirill Marchenko are next with nine. In terms of total goals, Thompson leads with 18, ahead of Alex Ovechkin (16), Tavares (16), Wyatt Johnston (15), and Tuch (15). Pastrnak, Panarin, Robertson, Geekie and Sidney Crosby all have 14 and Nick Suzuki has 13. The leader when it comes to individual expected goals in that time is Auston Matthews, with 13.44 and he has scored 10 goals in 23 games.

#20 With a nod to the future, the Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes have both signed top prospects from the KHL. Montreal inked Ivan Demidov, the fifth pick in the 2024 Draft, after he had an exceptional season with St. Petersburg SKA, producing 49 points (19 G, 30 A) in 65 regular-season games before adding five points in six playoff games. Demidov is expected to make his Habs debut on Monday against the Chicago Blackhawks and he will do so with great expectations from a fanbase that has been enjoying his development from afar all season. Carolina signed defenceman Alexander Nikishin, a third-round pick in 2020 who has turned into one of the premier defence prospects in the league. Nikishin is 6-foot-4 and has put up 157 points (45 G, 112 A) in 193 games across the past three seasons in the KHL. The Hurricanes have a solid veteran group on the blueline, so they don’t need to rush Nikishin into the lineup, but he will likely bring a higher upside and could prove to be good enough right away that he can’t be denied a spot.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Michkov flying high, Jenner returns, Byfield is creating, Guenther is sniping, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 28 Feb 2025 21:01:13 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - JANUARY 18: Philadelphia Flyers right wing Matvei Michkov (39) celebrates after scoring a goal during a NHL game between the Philadelphia Flyers and New Jersey Devils at Prudential Center on January 18, 2025 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Matvei Michkov is flying high, Boone Jenner returns, Quinton Byfield is creating, Dylan Guenther is sniping, and much more!

#1 Philadelphia Flyers rookie Matvei Michkov went through a midseason slump that likely will prevent him from Calder Trophy consideration. It appears to be a close race between San Jose Sharks center Macklin Celebrini and Montreal Canadiens defenceman Lane Hutson. Nevertheless, Michkov is heating up again and has piled up 10 points (5 G, 5 A) and 24 shots on goal in his past five games. Skating on a line with Sean Couturier and Owen Tippett is working for the 20-year-old first year winger.

#2 Shoulder surgery kept Columbus Blue Jackets captain Boone Jenner on the shelf until last Saturday, but he has hit the ice with authority, recording five assists and eight shots on goal in his first three games. Jenner also has six hits and that has been a consistently valuable factor in his fantasy appeal over the years. He has been skating at left wing with Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson, though Sillinger was injured Thursday at Detroit, so Jenner ended up taking 15 draws against the Red Wings, winning eight.

#3 Los Angeles Kings centre Quinton Byfield has gone nine games without a goal, but he also has 11 assists in his past seven contests. He has averaged 20:30 of ice time in that stretch and the 6-foot-5 pivot is establishing that he is a quality second-line centre, anchoring a line with Kevin Fiala and Alex Laferriere on his wings. Byfield has had these moments both last season and earlier in this season, too, but the challenge for him is maintaining consistency. He doesn’t need to score 11 points every seven games, though it would be nice, but he also can’t have stretches where he has two points in 12 games, either.

#4 It might seem obvious that Dallas Stars left winger Jason Robertson would score, but he struggled early in the season and had just 15 points (5 G, 10 A) with 60 shots on goal in his first 26 games. That tide has turned, however, and in 32 games since, he has delivered 41 points (19 G, 22 A) with 102 shots on goal. Robertson is naturally skating on Dallas’ top line with Roope Hintz and they have rookie Mavrik Bourque on the right wing. It’s obviously a great situation for Bourque, who is riding a six-game point streak, but he also has just three shots on goal in those six games – scoring on all three of them! – so it’s not the most sustainable situation, but worth keeping an eye on.

#5 Utah Hockey Club right winger Dylan Guenther missed a dozen games with a lower-body injury but upon returning to the lineup, he turned sizzling hot. In his past eight games, Guenther has 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 33 shots on goal. Averaging more than four shots on goal per game, for a player with a shot like Guenther’s, is a great way to ensure that production will continue. He is skating on a line with Barrett Hayton and Michael Carcone at even strength as well as holding a spot on Utah’s top power play unit.

#6 Since joining the Dallas Stars, veteran forward Mikael Granlund has been reunited with Matt Duchene, with whom he had played previously in Nashville. Playing for a stronger team, Granlund is playing less in Dallas – his ice time down more than three minutes per game – and yet he has recorded six assists in seven games for the Stars. He may be deferring a little too much, though, as Granlund has just nine shots on goal in seven games for Dallas. He has never been a huge shot generator but was averaging 2.42 shots on goal per game with San Jose before the trade.

#7 The Detroit Red Wings are surging up the Eastern Conference standings and part of the reason is that winger Alex DeBrincat is finding the net. DeBrincat scored in Thursday night’s loss to Columbus, extending his point streak to eight games and he has 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 27 shots on goal during that streak. DeBrincat has been doing his damage at even strength lately, where he is now skating with J.T. Compher and Patrick Kane, but DeBrincat is also a consistent producer on the power play. He has 46 power play goals in the past four seasons, which is tied with Connor McDavid for 13th.

#8 New York Rangers defenceman Adam Fox has been sidelined by an upper-body injury and that leaves the Blueshirts thin on the blueline, especially because K’Andre Miller left Tuesday’s game against the Islanders with an apparent lower-body injury. Miller may not miss time, but the Rangers are prepared to run a five-forward power play in Fox’s absence, with Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck, Chris Kreider, and Alexis Lafreniere on the first unit. If he is healthy, Miller might have some sleeper value because he has just 14 points (4 G, 10 A) in 52 games this season, but put up 43 points in 2022-2023, with 38 of those points coming at even strength.

#9 His name is popping up in trade rumours, yet St. Louis Blues captain Brayden Schenn is producing at a high level, which is not hurting his value. He is not generating enough shots, but Schenn does have seven points (1 G, 6 A) and eight shots on goal in his past seven games. He has solid wingers with Dylan Holloway and Jordan Kyrou on his flanks and Schenn adds fantasy appeal with his physical play as he has 150 hits in 60 games, which is tied for 26th.

#10 Although he does not have a consistent role on the Columbus power play, Blue Jackets defenceman Ivan Provorov does have six points (4 G, 2 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past seven games. He was logging huge minutes in the games leading up to the 4 Nations Face-Off break, averaging 28:55 time on ice in the previous four games and while it’s down to the 22-23 minutes per game range since the break, there is value in logging big minutes for a team that tends to play higher scoring games and the Blue Jackets rank third with 2.86 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-five play.

#11 Ottawa Senators defenceman Thomas Chabot has quietly been having an excellent season and his production is getting noisier. In his past eight games, he has seven points (2 G, 5 A) with 31 shots on goal. That shot rate is elite, and with Chabot delivering strong puck possession numbers (54.3 percent Corsi), it’s reasonable to expect that he can continue to generate offense. Maybe not at seven points in eight games pace, but enough to hold fantasy appeal.

#12 Injuries continue to wreak havoc on the Minnesota Wild and now centre Joel Eriksson Ek will be out of the lineup for weeks with a lower-body injury. Virtually by default, Frederick Gaudreau moves into the second-line centre spot and second-unit power play time virtually by default. In his past 11 games, Gaudreau has eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 19 shots on goal and in his past five games he is averaging 17:32 of ice time per game, so he is getting a chance to contribute more offensively.

#13 A slumping Michael Bunting will be out of the Pittsburgh Penguins lineup for weeks following appendix surgery. Bunting had no goals and two assists, with 20 shots on goal in his last 10 games before he was sidelined. With Bunting out, the Penguins have Anthony Beauvillier and Cody Glass skating on Evgeni Malkin’s wings. Beauvillier has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 21 shots on goal in his past seven games, which is more appealing than Glass, who has two assists and 21 shots on goal in his past 12 games.

#14 While the spotlight in Washington naturally shines on Alex Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal-scoring record, the Capitals are getting quality production from their supporting cast, too. In his past 14 games, for example, Pierre-Luc Dubois has contributed 15 points (7 G, 8 A) with 26 shots on goal. He could still stand to shoot the puck more, but this scoring surge gives him 49 points (14 G, 35 A) in 59 games, a massive improvement on the 40 points that he produced in 82 games for the Kings last season. There has never been a question about his talent, but it is refreshing to see what kind of production follows when he is engaged in the right situation.

#15 Skating on Dubois’ wings, Taylor Raddysh and Connor McMichael have had different paths this season. McMichael burst out of the gate at the start of the season, scoring 12 goals in his first 16 games, but then went through some lean times in the middle of the season. He is heating up again, though, with nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 18 shots on goal in his past nine games. With Tom Wilson dealing with an illness, Raddysh received more opportunity, and he has five assists in his past six games. The challenge for Raddysh is securing regular playing time because he has played under 13 minutes in 34 of 59 games this season.

#16 Buffalo Sabres centre Dylan Cozens has landed in trade rumours quite a bit this season, in part over frustration as the young forward has not produced as much offense as expected. His 68-point season in 2022-2023 seems to have set a bar that is now difficult for him to approach again, as Cozens finished with 47 points (18 G, 29 A) in 79 games last season and now has 30 points (11 G, 19 A) in 57 games this season. More recently, Cozens does have seven points (1 G, 6 A) and 19 shots on goal in his past nine games, but it will be interesting to see if the Sabres are moved to include him in any deadline deals.

#17 The Toronto Maple Leafs are getting some contributions from unusual places lately. Nick Robertson was an efficient scorer last season but had done little this season until he contributed four points (3 G, 1 A) in his past two games. Robertson’s emergence helps provide depth scoring, as he skates on a line with Max Domi and Matthew Knies. Pontus Holmberg is another Maple Leafs player providing surprising offense, as he works on the left side with John Tavares and William Nylander. Holmberg has mostly been a depth player in his career, but does have five points (4 G, 1 A) in his past three games. With Max Pacioretty potentially returning to the lineup, there could be some shuffling that makes Holmberg less appealing, but Robertson and Holmberg are at least worth keeping tabs on in the short term.

#18 Second-year New York Rangers left winger Will Cuylle can go through some scoring droughts, but he does have three points (2 G, 1 A) in his past four games and that complements his physical game. He is a reliable hitter, ranking fourth in the league with 217 hits, and Cuylle is the only player in the NHL with at least 30 points and 200 hits this season. In banger leagues, that makes him more valuable than his mere scoring numbers would suggest.

#19 With William Karlsson injured, Vegas Golden Knights centre Brett Howden is looking at a better opportunity, centering a line with veterans Brandon Saad and Mark Stone on his wings. Howden has recorded seven assists along with 13 shots on goal during a four-game point streak and while it hinders his Cy Young case – he had 16 goals and 6 assists previously – Howden now has career highs with 16 goals and 29 points in 58 games.

#20 The season looks like it could be getting away from the Boston Bruins and they could be sellers at the trade deadline, but don’t ignore Elias Lindholm. The veteran centre has seven points (3 G, 4 A) in his past nine games and, in his past four games, has 18 shots on goal while averaging more than 21 minutes of ice time per game. He’s centering Brad Marchand and Charlie Coyle, and that line might not make it through the deadline, but Lindholm is getting ample opportunity, including first-unit power play time, so he could offer some late-season value.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

NHL: CULLEN – Laine making the most of his power play time, Schmaltz, Hertl and Nelson are hot, Jones thriving since returning to lineup, and much more!

Scott Cullen — Fri, 24 Jan 2025 23:24:57 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 07: Patrik Laine (92) of the Montreal Canadiens skates during the third period of the NHL game between the Washington Capitals and the Montreal Canadiens on Dec 07 2024, at the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC(Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Patrik Laine has made the most of his power play time in Montreal, Nick Schmaltz, Tomas Hertl and Brock Nelson are hot, Seth Jones is thriving since returning to the Chicago lineup, and much more!

Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:

#1 It is not like the hockey world forgot what Patrik Laine could do when the puck hit his stick, but he has been playing sporadically in recent seasons, so the evidence wasn’t quite so evident. After joining the Montreal Canadiens, however, Laine has shown that he is still a lethal shooter. In 20 games with the Habs, Laine has 18 points (12 G, 6 A) with 54 shots on goal. He is scoring on 22.2 percent of his shots, which is a higher rate than he has finished in any previous season, but he is also quite specifically a power play threat, with 10 of his 12 goals coming with the man advantage. Laine has 10.35 goals per 60 minutes of power play time, which ranks first among players that have played at least 30 minutes on the power play this season. Victor Olofsson (6.48), Pavel Dorofeyev (5.76), Michael Bunting (5.22), and Brayden Point (4.82) round out the top five in power play goal-scoring efficiency.

#2 Veteran Utah Hockey Club right winger Nick Schmaltz has established his credentials as a quality point producing forward but had been off to a relatively slow start prior to embarking on what is now a seven-game point streak, during which he has nine points (3 G, 6 A). Schmaltz has consistently played alongside Clayton Keller, but the duo has recently added second-year centre Logan Cooley to the top line and Cooley has been cooking, putting up 30 points (12 G. 18 A) in his past 28 games.

#3 Barrett Hayton, who has played quite a bit with Schmaltz and Keller in recent seasons, has moved to a line with Matias Maccelli and Josh Doan and continues to have success, tallying seven points (3 G, 4 A) in his past four games. Hayton’s ice time is down this season to 15:24 per game after playing more than 17 minutes per game in the previous two seasons, but he has also improved his work in the face-off circle, winning 54.2 percent of his draws. Given Cooley’s offensive upside, it probably makes more sense for Hayton to slot in as the No. 2 centre in Utah.

#4 Vegas Golden Knights centre Tomas Hertl had been relatively inconsistent early in the season, but he might be turning the corner. He is riding a seven-game point streak, putting up 11 points (6 G, 5 A) with 25 shots on goal in those seven games. That elevated shot rate is an important factor because Hertl was averaging 2.24 shots per game through the first 41 games of the season. Taking that up to 3.57 shots per game is a strong indicator for a player sustaining is production.

#5 New York Islanders centre Brock Nelson is finding his name in trade rumours as the Isles are sitting in last place in the Metropolitan Division. He is helping to keep his value high, scoring seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 18 shots on goal while playing more than 20 minutes per game in his past six games. A 6-foot-4 centre who has scored more than 30 goals in three straight seasons, Nelson is obviously appealing for a team looking to boost its offense.

#6 Chicago Blackhawks defenceman Seth Jones is starting to heat up. He had missed five weeks with a foot injury, but has delivered 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in 14 games since getting back into the lineup. Jones has recorded 10 of his 20 points on the power play, and with 7.87 points per 60 minutes on the power play, he ranks third among defencemen, behind only Zach Werenski (8.11) and Neal Pionk (7.91).

#7 Seattle Kraken centre Chandler Stephenson had been on a good run before getting injured Thursday night. In his past 11 games, including Thursday, Stephenson has contributed 10 points (5 G, 5 A) but there is a bona fide concern with his low shot rate. He has 46 shots on goal in 48 games, which is a shockingly low amount for a player who logs more than 19 minutes of ice time per game. With Yanni Gourde also injured, Stephenson’s absence could create more playing time for Shane Wright, who is making progress. In his first 23 games of the season, Wright had seven points (4 G, 11 A), but in the next 23 games, he has contributed 15 points (4 G, 11 A).

#8 Looking for a buy-low winger? Consider Kevin Fiala of the Los Angeles Kings. In 11 games since the holiday break, Fiala has a modest five points (2 G, 3 A) but he also has 40 shots on goal. That shot rate is encouraging, but there is also the matter of Fiala’s low on-ice shooting percentage this season. During five-on-five play, the Kings are scoring on just 5.8 percent of their shots when Fiala is on the ice, which is his lowest since his rookie season in 2016-2017.

#9 Calgary Flames winger Blake Coleman can fly under the radar a bit but when he is contributing offensively, that makes his fantasy contribution quite strong. In his past 17 games, Coleman has 15 points (5 G, 10 A) but he also has 36 hits and that combination makes him quite appealing for fantasy managers. Coleman is unlikely to match last season’s career highs of 30 goals and 54 points, but already has 92 hits in 46 games, so if the point production continues, Coleman’s all-around contribution is solid.

#10 On a similar level, Boston Bruins forward Morgan Geekie has picked up his production a bit, with eight points (5 G, 3 A) in his past 10 games, but he also has 25 hits in those 10 games. Be a little wary, though, since Geekie only has 16 shots on goal in those 10 games, his goal-scoring has been dependent on a high shooting percentage (31.3 percent in the past 10 games).

#11 Carolina Hurricanes rookie right winger Jackson Blake has found his way to the top line, skating with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. Blake has played 15:27 per game over the past four, chipping in three points (1 G, 2 A) with nine shots on goal. It is probably too soon to jump on Blake in most fantasy leagues, but if he remains on that top line there is obvious scoring upside for a player who ranks third among rookies with 11 goals despite very limited ice time (12:02 ATOI). (Editors note – The Rantanen trade followed the publication of this article – the coach may want to spread the scoring around, but it is more likely Rantanen takes that spot on the top line)

#12 Toronto Maple Leafs centre John Tavares is out of the lineup due to a lower-body injury and for all of the criticism that Tavares takes, he remains a high-end point producer, with 42 points (20 G, 22 A) in 44 games before getting hurt. The challenge for the Maple Leafs is to get contributions down the middle of the ice behind Auston Matthews because, with Tavares out, the second line centre is Pontus Holmberg and the third line centre is rookie Fraser Minten. Holmberg has zero goals and one assist in his past 11 games while Minten has zero points in his past eight NHL games after starting with four points in his first five games.

#13 With the New York Islanders’ season teetering on the brink, they got bad news that standout defenceman Noah Dobson is considered week-to-week with a lower-body injury. Dobson’s production has fallen off the pace he set last season, when he had a career-high 70 points (10 G, 60 A) in 79 games, as he has 24 points (6 G, 18 A) in 46 games this season, but the Islanders don’t have great options to replace him on the power play. Ryan Pulock has handled the role before and is noted for his heavy shot from the point, but has one power play point this season.

#14 New Jersey Devils goaltender Jacob Markstrom has suffered a sprained MCL, which will keep him out of the lineup for 4-6 weeks. Markstrom has been exactly what the Devils needed between the pipes, with a .912 save percentage and 10.0 goals saved above expectations in 36 games. With Markstrom out, Jake Allen will need to handle the starter’s role. Allen has a .901 save percentage and 4.04 goals saved above expected in 15 games this season, so he is a capable starting goaltender for the next month plus.

#15 The Boston Bruins are in a tough battle for a playoff spot, for the first time in a while, but that is made even more challenging when goaltender Jeremy Swayman and No. 1 defenceman Charlie McAvoy are sidelined with injuries. Defenceman Hampus Lindholm was already injured, so the current version of the Bruins is without its top two defencemen and top goaltender, and that is going to make it even more difficult. Swayman’s injury does not seem serious, so Joonas Korpisalo may only have short term value, but McAvoy has landed on injured reserve, which will keep him out for at least a week. This defensive weakening does make the Bruins more vulnerable, potentially worth targeting as opposition while the Bruins are missing Lindholm and McAvoy.

#16 Bruins defenceman Mason Lohrei has been making the most of his opportunity to quarterback the power play. He has six points (1 G, 5 A) in the past seven games and is up to 10 power play points. With 6.85 points per 60 minutes on the power play, Lohrei is tied for 15th (with Chicago’s Alex Vlasic) among NHL defencemen.

#17 Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin is considered week to week with a lower-body injury, and that leaves a large hole for the Avalanche. In 21 games, Nichushkin has 17 points (11 G, 6 A). His absence keeps Ross Colton in Colorado’s top six and while Colton has been held scoreless in his past four games, he is worth keeping tabs on as a player with potential upside because he thrived earlier in the season when given a big opportunity due to injuries.

#18 Ottawa Senators centre Josh Norris is out with an upper-body injury. Given his history with shoulder woes, Norris’ health is an area of concern, yet the thing is that he can still produce when healthy. In 47 games this season, Norris has produced 17 goals and 27 points. The Sens do get David Perron back in the lineup, so that should theoretically help alleviate Norris’ absence, but Perron has failed to record a point in 10 games this season, so expectations should be kept in check. Senators defenceman Jake Sanderson is out of the lineup with a lower-body injury, which elevates Thomas Chabot to the first power play unit.

#19 Norris’ absence from the Senators’ lineup should also open the door for Shane Pinto to step up. While Pinto has six points (2 G, 4 A) and 18 shots on goal in the past eight games, he is also averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game in that time, so it would be a prime opportunity for Pinto to lift his offensive production because with 16 points (8 G, 8 A) in 40 games, he has underachieved offensively.

#20 Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman Darren Raddysh has elevated his game recently, producing six points (2 G, 4 A) with 13 shots on goal in the past five games, averaging 21:50 time on ice per game. With J.J. Moser and Erik Cernak injured, the Lightning certainly need Raddysh to take on more responsibility. In his first 18 games this season, Raddysh averaged 15:30 time on ice per game and in 20 games since then, has averaged 20:04 per game.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – OTTAWA SENATORS – Team Preview

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 16:00:11 +0000

_{OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 21: Ottawa Senators Left Wing Brady Tkachuk (7) before a face-off during second period National Hockey League action between the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators on October 21, 2023, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)}

Although the Ottawa Senators entered last season with expectations that they could challenge for a playoff spot, that dream never really materialized as they finished with 78 points (37-41-4). They struggled to a 16-24-1 record while centre Shane Pinto was suspended for the first half of the season and could not make up that deficit to get back into the playoff picture. The Senators ranked 19th with a 49.8% Corsi and 22nd with an expected goals percentage of 48.8%. Their power play was tied for 25th with 6.43 goals per 60 minutes and their penalty killing ranked 30th with 9.51 goals allowed per 60 minutes. They were a little below average at full strength and worse on special teams, so it shouldn’t come as any surprise that the Senators didn’t really challenge for a playoff spot.

WHAT’S CHANGED? The new ownership and front office in Ottawa started making changes following the disappointing campaign. Travis Green was hired to be the head coach, replacing Jacques Martin, who had stepped in to replace D.J. Smith during the season. The Sens made a move to acquire goaltender Linus Ullmark from Boston, with centre Mark Kastelic and goaltender Joonas Korpisalo part of the package going to the Bruins. Defenceman Jakob Chychrun was traded to Washington, with right-shot defender Nick Jensen coming to Ottawa in return. Right winger Mathieu Joseph was traded to St. Louis. Left winger Parker Kelly and defenceman Erik Brannstrom both signed in Colorado as free agents. The Senators signed free agent wingers David Perron from Detroit, Michael Amadio from Vegas, and Noah Gregor from Toronto.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? Maybe a year later, the Senators will have a fighting chance for a playoff berth. Ullmark should be a significant upgrade between the pipes and a full season from Pinto increases the chances that Ottawa will be playing meaningful hockey in March and April. Since the Sens have gone seven seasons without a trip to the playoffs, actually getting in would definitely be recognized as success. It would require some young players to step up their games, but it’s also not some pie-in-the-sky idea. If Ottawa’s complementary players contribute and the stars produce at a high level, then the goaltending upgrade could be what pushes the Senators over the top.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? With the addition of Ullmark, expectations should go up in Ottawa. While last year’s acquisition of Joonas Korpisalo was fraught from the start, the Senators have legitimate reason to be optimistic about their goaltending this season. This is where it could go wrong. If the Senators still can’t turn in a season with at least 90 points, something that will keep them in the playoff hunt, the disappointment will be substantial. The relatively new owner doesn’t have to make up for everything from the previous regime, but that baggage is hanging around and it will until the Sens finally turn the corner.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Jake Sanderson and Ridly Greig are viable candidates as well, but Shane Pinto was rather impressive in his half a season of work after returning from suspension last season. The 23-year-old centre contributed 27 points in 41 games, but he did so with a shooting percentage of 8.2% and an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.5%. By playing a full season and getting some positive regression out of those percentages, Pinto should obliterate his previous career high of 35 points, set in 2022-23. He will compete for playing time down the middle with Josh Norris, but Norris has had so much trouble staying healthy that Pinto should be able to secure a regular spot in a scoring role.

Forwards

Brady Tkachuk

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	44	37	81	1.01

From the moment Brady Tkachuk entered the league, it always felt like it was a matter of time before one of the league's highest-volume shot generators would develop into a prodigious goal-scoring talent. Only David Pastrnak registered a higher individual shot rate last season. That production allowed Tkachuk to register a new career high in shots (357) and establish a new high with 37 goals. It marked the third time the power forward surpassed the 30-goal threshold in his career. Tkachuk had the league's fifth-highest expected goal rate (1.83 ixG/60) in 2023-24. That metric is a product of Brady's willingness to create havoc in front of opposing goaltenders. His all-situations shooting percentage has sat slightly above the 10 percent mark in each of his last three seasons. That mark is respectable, but it does lend itself to the idea that if Tkachuk maintains his shot generation and enjoys any spike in luck that pushes his shooting percentage north near 12 to 14 percent, this is a player who has the potential to tally 40 to 50 goals. Considering how Tkachuk also finished the season with the third-highest total number of hits (294), that blend of physicality and offensive potential makes him one of the most unique players in the league.

Tim Stützle

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	28	60	88	1.09

Tim Stützle's 2023-24 campaign was a sobering reminder that not every young player's development and production growth will be linear. After scoring a sparkling 39 goals and 90 points in 2022-23, Stützle experienced a marked drop in production last season. The German registered 18 goals and 70 points in 75 games. It was probably fair to expect some regression in his shooting percentage after it leapt to 17.1 percent in 2022-23, but it was plainly evident that Stützle was a less dangerous player shooting the puck. His shooting percentage in all situations was 9.4 percent, which represented a career low. He also experienced some depreciation in his defensive game. At least some of his setbacks can be explained by the team’s struggles under former head coach D.J. Smith. Fortunately, there is a physical explanation for this. At the end of the season, Stützle acknowledged that a wrist injury he suffered in the fourth game of the season bothered him throughout the campaign. If the offseason affords his wrist the necessary time to mend, a completely healthy Timmy will go a long way to bolstering the Senators' forward core.

Claude Giroux

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	21	42	63	0.77

In case anyone needed a gauge to know how fast time flies, Claude Giroux is entering the final year of the three-year, $19.5 million contract he signed in 2022. Although the team's performance has not lived up to the fostered expectations when the popular veteran returned home, Giroux has fulfilled his end of the deal by playing in every one of the Senators' games over the last two seasons. He will turn 37 in January, but he has maintained strong levels of production into what is supposed to be the declining stage of his career. His production rates did experience a dip from his 2022-23 campaign, where he tallied 35 goals and 79 points. Giroux's goal rate (0.76 G/60) represented his lowest mark since the 2018-19 season. His point rate (2.33 Pts/60) represented his lowest rate since the 2019-20 campaign. Despite the drop in production, he still contributed 21 goals and 64 points while providing the leadership and competitiveness the organization desperately needs to support its young core. Although he no longer plays centre, Giroux's ability to take draws in the faceoff circle is essential for a Senators team featuring several young pivots. Of the players who took over 200 faceoffs last season, Giroux's 58.0 percent success rate was the ninth highest in the league. Although Tim Stützle improved his faceoff success rate from 41.6 to 46.7 percent over the last two years, it remains a weakness in his game. With Josh Norris coming off another shoulder surgery and Ridly Greig posting a lowly 43.9 percent success rate, the Senators can shelter their development by relying on Giroux.

Drake Batherson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	26	47	73	0.89

Despite eclipsing the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career during the 2022-23 season, it still felt like Drake Batherson had more to give. After spending the previous two years scoring on more than 15 percent of his shots on goal, Batherson's 2022-23 shooting percentage (8.8) represented the lowest mark of his career. He overcame that drop in efficiency by shooting the puck more than he ever had. In 2023-24, his shooting efficiency returned. He posted career highs in goals (28) and points (66) while registering 53 fewer shots on net. The hope is that there is still more room for offensive growth provided he can strike a balance between last season's efficiency and his shot volume levels from 2022-23. Along with Brady Tkachuk and Shane Pinto, Batherson was one of only three Senators regulars to average more than one expected goal per 60 minutes of ice time. He led the Senators in primary assists per 60 (1.17 A1/60) while finishing second in even strength goals (21) and power play goals (7). He tied Tkachuk for the club-leading 22 power play points.

David Perron

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	16	26	42	0.56

A prominent theme of the Senators' offseason was management prioritizing veteran leadership to offset the inexperience of the team's young core. Perhaps more importantly, management added veterans who could also contribute value on the ice. At 36 years old, David Perron is a depreciating talent entering the final years of his career. And, at that, there is a risk the Senators overpaid by awarding him with a two-year deal averaging $4 million AAV. Perron's goals and points per 60 rate have declined for two straight years, but his 2023-24 marks (0.86 G/60, 2.37 Pts/60) are not far removed from his 2022-23 season (1.04 G/60, 2.42 Pts/60) in which he scored 24 goals and 56 points. Never a great skater, there is concern that if Perron has lost a step, it could exacerbate his weaknesses. NHL Edge data lists Perron in the bottom 50th percentile in top skating speed, speed bursts over 20 mph, and shot speed. To the player's credit, even if he has lost a step, Perron has created value by going to the dirty areas of the ice to create offence. Ottawa has historically relied on skill and rush chances to create offence in recent years, so they will welcome Perron's net front tenacity and his ability to win battles along the boards to sustain offensive zone time.

Josh Norris

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
56	23	17	40	0.71

One year removed from a shoulder injury limited Josh Norris to eight games during the 2022-23 season, this is not where anyone expected the centre's recovery to be. Norris reinjured that same left shoulder in a game against the Predators on February 27th, necessitating surgery and forcing him to miss the remainder of the season. There are few modern sports examples of players needing three surgical procedures on one shoulder in such a short span, but if there is a glimmer of hope, Vladimir Tarasenko offers it. Norris' former teammate endured three procedures of his own, and he eventually returned to playing at a decent level. Norris turned 25 this offseason, so there is hope his youth may assist in his recovery. With six years remaining on an eight-year contract extension carrying an AAV of $7.95 million, there is nothing else fans can do but hope he eventually resembles his pre-injury form when he scored 35 goals and 55 points in 2012-22. Although he has missed 106 games across the last two seasons, there have been moments of optimism when he has played. It was fair to expect some regression in his shooting percentage (17.7) that led to his big 35-goal 2021-22 campaign, but Norris' shot continued to be dangerous. In his last 58 games, he scored on almost 14 percent of his shots. The question facing the Senators is, when Norris does return, where should he play? Norris has proven to be a quality finisher, but his playmaking and puck-driving ability have not been strong. By playing the wing, he will have fewer defensive responsibilities and can be sheltered from taking faceoffs. His reintegration into the Senators' lineup will be one of the more intriguing storylines to follow in 2024-25.

Shane Pinto

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	25	31	56	0.68

It is safe to assume that the start of Shane Pinto's 2024-25 season will be less distracting than its predecessor. After salary cap complications and stalled contract negotiations between the Senators and Pinto's camp marred last year's offseason, the NHL levied a 41-game suspension - one of the largest suspensions in league history for his involvement in a gambling scandal. Once Pinto returned, he performed at a high level. In 41 games last season, Pinto registered nine goals and 27 points while averaging 18:07 of ice time. The centre's point rate grew from 1.60 points per 60 to 2.18 in 2023-24. A large driver in that growth was an improvement in his primary assist rate, which grew from 0.27 to 0.81. An important consideration to monitor will be Pinto's usage. Josh Norris' recovery from shoulder surgery could cause wrinkles throughout the top three lines. Provided everyone is healthy, a reasonable bet would be for Pinto to start the season anchoring the third line. In saying that, he was Brady Tkachuk's most common centre at five-on-five last season despite missing half the team's games. If Norris' recovery progresses slowly or he cannot return to his pre-injury form, Pinto will have an easy path to top six minutes. Should he continue to build upon last season's numbers when his individual expected goal rate (1.34 ixG/60) was the second highest on the team behind Brady Tkachuk, his play will warrant that opportunity on merit. And, in signing a two-year, $3.75 million AAV contract this summer, he will arrive in camp without any distraction.

Michael Amadio

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	13	14	27	0.35

Arguably the organization's most low-key addition this offseason was Michael Amadio. The versatile two-way forward returns to Ottawa, where he played five nondescript games with the Senators during the 2020-21 season. Since then, Amadio has solidified himself as an NHL regular after three seasons in Vegas. In 193 games in the desert, he compiled 41 goals and 72 points including 14 goals and 27 points in 73 games last season. He has demonstrated he can be an efficient scorer in this league. In parts of seven NHL seasons, Amadio has scored on 12.2 percent of his shots. According to Evolving-Hockey's 'wins above replacement' metric, Amadio compiled the fourth-highest value (1.5 WAR) in Vegas last season. He did so while spending most of his time playing on a line with William Karlsson. Amadio will likely not have the luxury of starting the year playing with a 30-goal scorer in Ottawa. There is a risk that his numbers could suffer away from Karlsson, but Amadio will be expected to bring positional flexibility, goal-scoring, and defensive aptitude to the bottom of the lineup. A glaring weakness of the Senators' roster building in recent years has been their willingness to bring in supporting players who offer offence or defence, but not both. The belief is that Amadio will be a more well-rounded fit than his predecessors.

Ridly Greig

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	15	15	30	0.39

If there was a positive to come out of Shane Pinto's half-season suspension last season, it was that it created the opportunity Ridly Greig needed to establish himself and develop at the NHL level. Greig began his campaign recording seven points in his first eight games, and it was only a short time before he garnered attention for his production, chippiness, and two-way play. Greig finished 15th in rookie scoring with 13 goals and 26 points, despite only contributing six points in his last 33 games. Greig was a Swiss Army knife, allowing his coaches to play him up and down the lineup on the wing or at centre. Greig played on nine different line combinations that played more than 30 minutes together. His most common linemates were Dominik Kubalik and Mathieu Joseph – but that trio played just 87 minutes together to poor results. The Senators generated only 44 percent of the shots (CF%) and expected goals (xGF%) while they were on the ice. In a smaller sample size, Greig thrived with Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux generating 69 percent of the shots (CF%) and 72 percent of the expected goals. A promising start and more continuity and better linemates should help his progression.

DEFENCE

Jake Sanderson

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
81	12	39	51	0.63

Jake Sanderson did the unthinkable. For the first time since the 2017-18 season, someone other than Thomas Chabot led the Senators in average ice time per game (23:13). Fresh after signing an eight-year extension worth an AAV of $8.05 million, Sanderson experienced a breakout, recording 10 goals and 38 points - becoming the ninth defenceman in franchise history to record more than 10 goals and 35 points in a season. Despite those point totals, there is considerable room for growth. The loss of Jakob Chychrun should free up more power play ice time for Sanderson. He averaged only 0.75 points per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time. Among the seven defenders on the Senators who logged more than 10 games, only Travis Hamonic had a lower point rate than Sanderson. He could be due for a big season if he can improve that point rate. On the defensive side of the puck, the Senators do not have to worry about Sanderson. His pairing with Artem Zub gave the Senators a reliable defensive tandem to match against the opposition's most dangerous lines. Together, they logged 826 five-on-five minutes. When they were on the ice together, the Senators generated the majority of the goals (52.5 GF%), shots on goal (54.7 SF%), shots (53.7CF%), and expected goals (54.9 xGF%). The Sanderson-Zub pairing had the 10th-highest xGF% of all the defensive pairings in the league that logged more than 500 minutes. A considerable achievement given where the team finished in the standings.

Thomas Chabot

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	10	32	42	0.60

Since being drafted in the first round of the 2015 NHL Draft, Thomas Chabot has played parts of eight seasons with the Senators. Never once has the defenceman reached the postseason. These years were spent logging big minutes on bad teams with even worse defensive partners, fuelling a belief that Chabot had developed poor defensive habits. The 2022-23 campaign was arguably the worst defensive season of his career, so there was a lot of pressure on Chabot to improve. Under Jacques Martin, his game improved considerably. The rate of shots (CA/60) and shots on goal (SA/60) that the Senators allowed while Chabot was on the ice were the lowest of his career. As much as the defence improved, Chabot had one of his least impactful offensive seasons, recording nine goals and 30 points in 51 games while mercifully being removed from the first power play unit and replaced by Jake Sanderson. His seven power play points matched a career-low and Chabot failed to be a viable threat from the blue line. One explanation for his offensive play is injury. He reportedly underwent surgery on his wrist to alleviate an issue that has been plaguing him for several seasons. Staying healthy will be a key to both his and the team’s success. The 27-year-old has missed 75 games across the last four years, including 31 games in 2023-24. Having a stable and reliable defensive partner should help too. Nick Jensen, an undervalued defensive defenceman, is expected to replace Jakob Chychrun as Chabot's partner. The Senators allowed 4.38 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five when Chychrun and Chabot were on the ice together. Replacing Chychrun with a natural right-shot defenceman who has historically put up solid defensive numbers since the 2016-17 season should help.

Nick Jensen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	2	14	16	0.21

Acquired with a third-round pick in a slightly polarizing trade that sent the 26-year-old Jakob Chychrun to the Washington Capitals, Nick Jensen joins the Senators to balance the handedness of the top two defensive pairings. The defensive defenceman has always been an analytics darling, but last season was his least impactful from an underlying numbers perspective. The Capitals only generated 44 percent of the shots (CF%) and expected goals (xGF%) when Jensen was on the ice. 2023-24 also represented Jensen's least impactful season regarding his surface numbers. In 78 games for the Capitals last season, Jensen had a lonely goal and 13 assists. The optimistic view is that Jensen is just one season removed from a productive season. Jensen's poor 2023-24 campaign could be partly explained by the Capitals' decline or the fact that Jensen never had a consistent playing partner following the Dmitry Orlov trade in 2023. He played more than 100 minutes with five different partners to poor results. The 33-year-old right-shot defenceman projects to begin his Senators career playing alongside Thomas Chabot. Chabot represents the most talented partner that Jensen will have had in his career, so it's a relatively soft landing spot for Jensen to prove his 2023-24 campaign was not part of a larger age-related decline.

Artem Zub

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
74	3	16	19	0.26

Since entering the league as an unheralded European veteran at the start of the 2020-21 season, Artem Zub has solidified his reputation as the Senators' best defensive defenceman. Together with Jake Sanderson, the Senators have assembled one of their best defensive shutdown pairings since the early 2000's. To put things into perspective, the Senators allowed an average 29.51 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time. When Sanderson and Zub were on the ice together, often playing against the opposition's best forwards, the Senators allowed 26.73 shots. Zub's offence was the most understated part of his 2023-24 season. He led Senators defencemen in five-on-five points per 60 (1.10). It more than doubled his 2022-23 rate (0.44). The only blemish on Zub's record is something out of his control. He has missed a half-season worth of games across the last two seasons. Without a ton of quality options available behind Jensen and Zub, any prolonged absence from the lineup will put the team in an unenviable position of having to give Jacob Bernard-Docker or Travis Hamonic top four minutes.

GOAL

Linus Ullmark

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
55	28	22	5	3	0.909	2.68

The Ottawa Senators and the Boston Bruins have never been considered one of the NHL’s premier rivalries. But come the start of the 2024 campaign, that may change - all thanks to one of the most inexplicable trades made by an NHL GM since the Toronto Maple Leafs gifted Boston a Vezina winner nearly twenty years ago. This time, it’s the Canadian franchise on the receiving end of a Vezina-caliber gift; thanks to a cap crunch in Boston, the Senators will start their upcoming season with elite-level starter Linus Ullmark between the pipes, likely for as many games as they can possibly squeeze out of him. Ullmark has been one of the NHL’s most reliable performers since arriving in Boston in 2021. He’s served as the slightly more veteran half of a formidable tandem with Jeremy Swayman, splitting the net almost perfectly down the middle in terms of workload and reaping the benefits of carefully constructed rest periods. Now, he’ll head to a floundering team stuck in the quagmire of a rebuild, dangerously close to becoming another Buffalo. The Senators keep getting close to taking the next step forward, but just can’t seem to put it all together.

That should make for an interesting situation with regards to how Ullmark will fare. He spent the first half of his NHL career skating out as a starter for none other than the Buffalo Sabres, and his numbers were admirable but incapable of carrying his team out of the basement. Now, he’s older and has considerably more experience taking reps behind a more structured defensive system - but he’s also started to develop a minor injury history and hasn’t had to deal with the kind of inconsistency that Ottawa’s defense can display a little too often for comfort. Getting back into the habit of having to rely on desperation saves over structure and system might take some adjustment for Ullmark, and it’s entirely possible that his numbers will suffer as a result. Hopefully, though, he’s the missing piece the Senators have needed - and he’ll be able to help give the team the necessary push back into the hunt for a Wild Card berth.

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD (April 1st to 7th) – Art Ross and Hart trophy races will come down to wire – Favourable matchups and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sun, 31 Mar 2024 17:29:42 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 16: Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) celebrates his goal and 131st point in the third period of the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Dallas Stars on March 16, 2023 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

The battle for the Art Trophy is coming down to the wire with Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov (42 goals, 126 points), Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon (47, 127) and Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (29, 125) all serious contenders. The trio is naturally also three of the main players being evaluated for the Hart Trophy.

Who ends up winning the Art Ross will likely have significant influence in the Hart battle. Typically speaking, I’d assume McDavid would be the least likely of the three because he’s well behind Kucherov and MacKinnon in terms of goals, but McDavid is just five helpers away from becoming only the third player to ever record 100 assists in a season -- the other two being Wayne Gretzky (x11), Mario Lemieux (88-89) and Bobby Orr (70-71), so that might afford McDavid some special consideration.

In terms of who has been the most valuable to his team, an argument can be made for all three. Although Colorado, Tampa Bay and Edmonton all have other great players, it would have been challenging for any of them to even make the playoffs without their top forward.

Outside of that trio, Auston Matthews also might make a bid for the Hart Trophy. He’s one goal away from 60, which is the milestone that helped earn him the Hart in 2021-22 over Connor McDavid, who beat Matthews in terms of points 123 to 106. McDavid also provided 44 goals of his own that year, so he was in a similar position to Kucherov and MacKinnon today. Perhaps this year’s voters will be less impressed with 60, though -- while it’s a tremendous milestone, this marks the third straight year of at least one player hitting it and we had two surpass that mark last season in McDavid and Pastrnak, which might diminish the shine a bit.

That said, Matthews still has 10 games left, so he has an opportunity to potentially push far enough past the 60-goal mark to excite voters.

Los Angeles Kings – MON @ WPG, WED VS SEA, THU @ SJS (BTB), SAT VS VAN

The Kings are in a good position in the battle for a wild-card spot, but their ticket to the playoffs hasn’t been punched yet. They also have a shot of potentially snatching the first wild-card position from Nashville while simultaneously being in a tight race for Vegas for the third seed in the Pacific Division. In other words, LA has plenty left to fight for.

They’ll start the upcoming week on the road against Winnipeg on Monday. After that, LA will host the Kraken on Wednesday, play in San Jose on Thursday and finish with a home tilt versus the Canucks. Winnipeg and Vancouver are tough adversaries, but Seattle and the Sharks won’t be advancing to the postseason.

Anze Kopitar is doing his best to put LA into the best position possible, providing six goals and 11 points across his last seven contests. He’s up to 24 goals and 64 points in 72 outings overall. Don’t ignore him in playoff pools. Kopitar tends to do well in the playoffs -- he even had two goals and seven points in six outings last year’s postseason, so age hasn’t slowed him yet. Of course, LA might not go far enough in the playoffs for it to matter and that’s a valid concern. Keep in mind, though, that LA would be 35-15-5 if not for its horrible 3-8-6 slump from Dec. 28-Jan.28, so LA is a bigger threat than it appears at first glance.

That’s especially true of Cam Talbot, who posted a 3.86 GAA and an .881 save percentage across 10 contests during that slump, but even with that cold spell factored in, he’s having a strong campaign with a 23-17-6 record, 2.44 GAA and .916 save percentage through 47 appearances. He’s been especially strong over his past 11 games, posting a 2.11 GAA and a .923 save percentage in that span, so perhaps the veteran goaltender will stay strong in the playoffs.

It’s nice to also have Viktor Arvidsson healthy. The 30-year-old has participated in just eight contests this year, but he had 26 goals and 59 points in 77 games last season. He’s collected a goal and three points in four appearances since returning from a lower-body injury while averaging 17:26 of ice time, including 3:15 with the man advantage, in that span.

Minnesota Wild – TUE VS OTT, THU VS COL, SAT VS WPG, SUN @ CHI

The Wild still has an outside shot of making the playoffs, but they’d likely only advance if they win essentially all of their remaining games. At least they’ll be at home for most of the week with contests against the Senators on Tuesday, the Avalanche on Thursday and the Jets on Saturday. At that stretch in Minnesota, the Wild will visit the lowly Blackhawks on Sunday.

Even with the campaign all but lost, Kirill Kaprizov is continuing to excel, providing 10 goals and 18 points over 11 outings this season. He’s just four goals away from reaching the 40-goal milestone for the third straight campaign, so look for him to be aggressive with the puck over the Wild’s final games.

There’s also likely to be increased attention on Marc-Andre Fleury given that the storied goaltender might be playing out his final games. However, his retirement isn’t a certainty -- the 39-year-old even recently told NHL.com that “the door is more open today for a return than it was in September or October.”

In terms of whether there would be a market for him, Fleury has posted an underwhelming 16-12-5 record, 2.85 GAA and .899 save percentage in 36 appearances, but some of the blame for that should be placed at the feet of the Wild defenders. In terms of Goals Saved Above Expected, Fleury is minus-6.7 or minus-0.201 per 60 minutes. In other words, Fleury hasn’t been great, and given the fear that he’ll decline further at the age of 40 (he’ll celebrate that birthday Nov. 28), there might be some hesitancy to sign him.

Fleury has also suggested that he would only re-sign with Minnesota, so it becomes a question of if the Wild want to continue down that path. If he was willing to expand his options further, teams with young goaltenders like Joseph Woll in Toronto or Samuel Ersson in Philadelphia, might express interest, but Fleury and his family are happy in Minnesota, and he understandably doesn’t want to ask his three kids to move again, so don’t expect him to go anywhere else.

Minnesota will also presumably continue with Filip Gustavsson, who is finishing the first campaign of his three-year, $11.25 million deal. He’s had a rough campaign with a 19-15-4 record, 3.10 GAA and .898 save percentage in 41 contests, but at least he has a chance of ending on an upswing after saving 101 of 105 shots (.962 save percentage) over his past four games.

Nashville Predators – TUE VS BOS, THU VS STL, SAT @ NYI, SUN @NJD (BTB)

The Predators have gone on an incredible 16-1-2 run dating back to Feb. 17. Thanks to that success, Nashville occupies the first wild-card spot and has a shot to challenge Winnipeg for the third seed in the Central Division if the Predators remain hot. With that goal, Nashville will host the Bruins and Blues on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. The Predators will then go on the road, playing against the Islanders on Saturday and in New Jersey on Sunday.

Nashville’s run has been fueled in part by Filip Forsberg, who has just been absolutely unreal with 15 goals and 28 points over his past 16 games. He hasn’t been slowing down either, recording at least a point in each of his last eight contests, totaling eight goals and eight assists in that span. Getting him from Washington in 2013 in exchange for Martin Erat and Michael Latta has to be one of the most one-sided trades of this generation.

It's not the only former trade that’s paid off for Nashville. Although the Predators selected Roman Josi with the No. 38 pick in 2008, that selection originally belonged to the Maple Leafs, who dealt it to Arizona. Nashville was then able to trade up to No. 38 by giving the No. 46 pick (Colby Robak) and No. 76 selection (Mathieu Brodeur) to Arizona. Given that Robak played in just 47 career NHL games and Brodeur didn’t make it to the top level, it’s easy to say that worked out immensely better for Nashville than the Coyotes. Josi has 19 goals and 76 points in 73 appearances this year, including four goals and 14 points across his active eight-game scoring streak.

Goaltender Juuse Saros was another player drafted by the Predators with someone else’s pick. Hilariously, Nashville was focused on winning now when the franchise unknowingly moved to get its future franchise goaltender, acquiring veteran Paul Gaustad from Buffalo in 2012 in exchange for what proved to be the No. 21 overall pick in that year’s draft (Mark Jankowski, who coincidentally now plays for Nashville). Buffalo threw in a 2013 fourth-round pick to balance the scales, and that selection turned out to be Saros.

Saros also had a phenomenal 11-0-2 record, 1.76 GAA and .936 save percentage in 13 appearances from Feb. 17-March 23. That said, he has struggled recently, allowing 10 goals on 62 shots (.839 save percentage) over his past two contests, so it’s fair to call an end to that hot run.

New Jersey Devils – TUE VS PIT, WED @ NYR, SAT @ OTT, SUN VS NSH

The Devils’ playoff hopes aren’t completely gone, but it’s hard to imagine them getting in unless they win all their remaining games, and even then, they would need some luck. Still, New Jersey will push forward Tuesday while hosting the Penguins. The Devils will then play on the road against the Rangers on Wednesday and in Ottawa on Saturday before hosting the Predators on Sunday.

If you’re wondering about Dougie Hamilton (pectoral), there hasn’t been any news on that front in a while. At this point, no news is extremely discouraging, and I would be somewhat surprised if he ended up playing again this season. His absence is part of why New Jersey is likely to miss the playoffs this season, but he should be in line for a great bounce-back campaign in 2024-25, so don’t forget about him.

The only question mark is if Hamilton will still have a spot on the top power-play unit. The answer is probably, but you can’t rule out the possibility that Luke Hughes’ rise will push him out of that role. The 20-year-old rookie has nine goals and 41 points in 74 contests and has been red hot down the stretch with a goal and eight points in his past six outings, including five points with the man advantage.

Also poised to end on a strong note is Timo Meier, who has five goals and 10 points in his last six games. He’s had a somewhat underwhelming campaign overall with 24 goals and 46 points in 61 outings -- down from 40 goals in 2022-23 -- but he’s picked things up dramatically since Feb. 14, supplying 14 goals and 24 points across his past 18 appearances.

New York Islanders – MON @ PHI, TUE VS CHI (BTB), THU @ CBJ, SAT VS NSH

The Islanders endured a 0-5-1 stretch from March 11-21, which severely hindered their chances of making the playoffs. They still have an outside shot of a playoff berth, but they’ll need a hot finish to the campaign. The Islanders would be in a much better position if they win their upcoming road game against Philadelphia. The Flyers hold the third seed in the Metropolitan Division, but with a 36-28-10 record, Philadelphia is arguably slightly more vulnerable than the 36-27-9 Capitals, who occupy the second wild-card position. New York will then host the Blackhawks on Tuesday, play in Columbus on Thursday and return home to face the Predators on Saturday.

A good finish from Anders Lee would certainly help the Islanders’ chances. Although the 33-year-old has reached the 25-goal mark on six occasions in his career, including in each of the previous two campaigns, Lee will likely fall short of that this year. He has just 18 tallies and 32 points in 72 outings with much of his production coming in infrequent spurts -- his most recent coming from March 21-23 in which he had a goal and three points across two contests. Perhaps he’ll have at least one more strong push this season to at least push him to the 20-goal milestone.

Bo Horvat has also left something to be desired recently with two assists in his past five games, but unlike Lee, Horvat is having a great campaign overall with 29 goals and 63 points in 71 outings. It shouldn’t be much longer before the 28-year-old picks things up again, so don’t get too worried if you have him in any of your fantasy leagues.

One Islanders player who has been clicking is Mathew Barzal. He’s supplied three goals and five points over his last four games, bringing him up to 23 markers and 74 points through 71 outings overall. The 26-year-old has already set a new career high in goals, and he still might surpass his personal best of 85 points, set back in his 2017-18 rookie campaign.

New York Rangers – MON VS PIT, WED VS NJD, FRI @ DET, SUN VS MTL

The Rangers have already punched their playoff ticket, but they still have work to do in order to secure the first seed in the Metropolitan Division as well as potentially the Presidents’ Trophy. New York will begin the week by hosting the Penguins on Monday and the Devils on Wednesday. The Rangers will then play in Detroit on Friday before returning home to face the Canadiens on Sunday.

The Rangers have been working through some defensive injuries, but Jacob Trouba (lower body) is close to playing for the first time since March 4. At the time of writing, he’s questionable for Saturday’s game against Arizona and might be available for the start of next week even if he misses that tilt. Erik Gustafsson (upper body) will be shelved for his third straight contest Saturday. He didn’t even join the Rangers on their two-game road trip, so it seems entirely plausible that the blueliner will miss additional time next week.

Trouba’s eventual return might push Zac Jones out of the lineup. Jones has done alright with a goal and eight points in 28 contests this season, including three assists in his run of 11 straight games with New York. However, when everyone is healthy, the 23-year-old Jones still has trouble finding his way into the lineup.

Chad Ruhwedel might lose his spot in the top six once Gustafsson is back. The Rangers acquired Ruhwedel from Pittsburgh on March 8 in exchange for a 2027 fourth-round pick to serve primarily as a depth option. It’s a nice luxury that the Rangers can turn to him in the event of injuries, especially with the grind of the playoffs around the corner.

Fortunately, the Rangers’ recent injury woes have not extended to Adam Fox, who did miss time early in the campaign but has still contributed 15 goals and 63 points in 63 outings in 2023-24. He’s showing no signs of slowing down either, providing five goals and 12 points across his last nine appearances.

Ottawa Senators – TUE @ MIN, THU VS FLA, SAT VS NJD, SUN @ WAS (BTB)

The Senators won’t be making the playoffs, but Ottawa has won its last four games as it tries to at least end the campaign on a positive note. The Senators will attempt to stay hot in Minnesota on Tuesday before returning home to host the Panthers on Thursday and the Devils on Saturday. Ottawa will conclude the week with a road tilt in Washington on Sunday.

Like the Rangers, Ottawa has dealt with injured defensemen. Unfortunately for the Senators, injuries are an all-too common problem where it relates to Thomas Chabot. The 27-year-old has appeared in just 44 contests, supplying eight goals and 28 points in that span, and he is presently dealing with an undisclosed issue that shelved him Thursday. If Chabot can ever have a healthy campaign, then he might be able to challenge his 2018-19 personal best of 55 points, but he hasn’t reached the 70-game mark since 2019-20 when he logged a career-high 71 contests.

On the plus side, Jakob Chychrun has stayed healthy this campaign. The 25-year-old defenseman is hot at the moment, supplying three goals and four points over his past three games, which brings him 12 goals and 36 points in 72 outings overall.

Up front, Drake Batherson is bringing what’s been a strong campaign for him to a positive conclusion with three goals and six points across his last four games. He’s already set a new career high with 26 markers and is just five points away from topping his personal best in that category, which he set last season.

Washington Capitals – TUE @ BUF, THU VS PIT, FRI @ CAR, SUN VS OTT

The Capitals control their own fate as the holders of the second seed in the wild-card race, but they still have significant competition, so it’s too early to relax. The Capitals will play in Buffalo on Tuesday, host the Penguins on Thursday, head to Carolina on Friday and finish the week with a home contest against the Senators on Sunday.

Washington has won six of its last eight games to push itself into a favorable playoff position and Alex Ovechkin deserves a good chunk of the credit for that, providing an incredible eight goals over a stretch of five games from March 16-24. That said, the superstar has been held off the scoresheet for the last two contests, which isn’t a big deal on its own, but because his goals have tended to come in bunches this campaign, one has to wonder if he’s entered a prolonged cold period.

One lower-profile Capitals player who has been chipping in lately is Connor McMichael. He’s contributed five goals and eight points over his past nine appearances, which gives him 17 goals and 32 points in 70 contests this season. The 23-year-old has averaged 17:46 of ice time in that nine-game stretch, which represents a sizable jump compared to his season average of 15:54.

From the blue line, John Carlson has collected two goals and seven points over his past seven games. That includes four points with the man advantage, bringing him up to 18 power-play points (four goals, 14 assists) overall.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Fantilli takes on more responsibility – Rasmussen stepping up – Zary providing scoring punch – plus much more ..

Scott Cullen — Fri, 15 Dec 2023 21:07:45 +0000

MONTREAL, QC - OCTOBER 26: Columbus Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli (11) waits for a face-off during the Columbus Blue Jackets versus the Montreal Canadiens game on October 26, 2023, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Adam Fantilli takes on more responsibility in Columbus, Michael Rasmussen is stepping up in Detroit, Connor Zary is providing scoring punch for Calgary, and Edmonton has a goaltender offering fantasy value once again.

#1 It can be difficult to make the jump straight from college hockey to the NHL and it’s even more challenging when the player is asked to handle major responsibility at the NHL level. Columbus’ Adam Fantilli has recorded six points (4 G, 2 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past seven games and with Boone Jenner injured, Fantilli has now been thrust into the role of top line centre, skating with Johnny Gaudreau. Patrik Laine has also been recently injured and that has opened up a spot for Justin Danforth to play right wing on that line. Fantilli played a career high 19:29 in Thursday’s win at Toronto and he is looking at significant ice time for at least the next few months, as long as he can handle it.

#2 At the start of the season, Michael Rasmussen was languishing on the bottom half of the Red Wings depth chart, managing just five points (2 G, 3 A) in 19 games. December has brought more production from the 6-foot-6 centre, as Rasmussen has eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in seven games this month. With Dylan Larkin and J.T. Compher injured and David Perron appealing his six-game suspension, there is more ice time available in Detroit and Rasmussen is doing his part to earn it.

#3 Calgary Flames rookie winger Connor Zary has produced 15 points (6 G, 9 A) in 20 games since getting called up from the American Hockey League early in the season. His 0.75 points per game ranks second among rookies, behind some character named Bedard, and is skating on a line with Nazem Kadri and fellow rookie Martin Pospisil. There is a warning sign, however. Zary has failed to record a shot on goal in three of his past four games and has a total of 24 shots on goal in 20 games. That is not the ideal path to sustainable offensive production.

#4 Surrendering five goals on 22 shots in Thursday’s loss to Tampa Bay put a damper on the recently improved play of Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner. The Calder Trophy runner-up last season, Skinner started poorly this year and, with Jack Campbell demoted to the AHL, the Oilers were still pushing Skinner out there, hoping for better results. Before Thursday’s loss, they were getting those better results, as Skinner had seven straight wins with a .935 save percentage in his previous seven starts.

#5 Arizona Coyotes winger Matias Maccelli continues to produce. He had 49 points in 64 games last season and is up to 21 points (5 G, 16 A) in 28 games this season after scoring five points (2 G, 3 A) in his past six games. What is more compelling about Maccelli’s production is that he is shooting the puck a lot more. HE has 22 shots on goal in his past six contests, which is a substantial upgrade over his 36 shots on goal in 22 games before that.

#6 With Winnipeg Jets sniper Kyle Connor out 6-8 weeks after taking a knee-on-knee hit from Ryan Strome, the Jets will need Nikolaj Ehlers to handle more of the offensive load. He has tended to be underused in the past couple of seasons but does have 15 points (7 G, 8 A) and 38 shots on goal in his past 15 games. Now, the challenge will be maintaining that kind of production with Gabe Vilardi moving up to the top line to fill in for Connor.

#7 It is fair to say that Mason Marchment’s first season in Dallas did not go according to plan, as he finished with 31 points (12 G, 19 A) in 68 games. He scored on just 8.1 percent of his shots on goal, which contributed to his lower than anticipated output. This season, Marchment has scored on 16.1 percent of his shots on goal and has put up 12 points (6 G, 6 A) and 30 shots on goal in his past 12 games. It’s amazing what a difference it makes to score at nearly double the rate of shots on goal! Nevertheless, Marchment has found a good fit alongside veterans Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin in Big D.

#8 New York Islanders captain Anders Lee got off to an abysmal start this season, managing just two points (1 G, 1 A) through his first 15 games. For a player who lives at the top of the crease, that’s not making the most of his opportunities. Lee’s production is starting to improve, though, as he has eight points (6 G, 2 A) and 34 shots on goal in his past 13 games. Lee is back on the Islanders’ top line, with Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal, so that should provide more consistent scoring opportunities.

#9 Coming off a career high 27 points last season, Vancouver Canucks winger Sam Lafferty is getting a great opportunity to skate on Vancouver’s top line with Elias Pettersson and Ilya Mikheyev. Lafferty has contributed five points (3 G, 2 A) in his past six games, and his situation makes him appealing in the short term but his track record and the possibility that he could easily get bumped down the depth chart does put a limit on his appeal in this scoring role.

#10 With Philipp Grubauer injured, Joey Daccord is looking at his best opportunity to establish himself in net for the Seattle Kraken. Daccord, 27, does have a .912 save percentage in his past eight appearances, so he could be an upgrade on the underachieving Grubauer. If Daccord falters, Chris Driedger might get some time, too. The 29-year-old missed all of last season after suffering a torn ACL at the 2022 World Championships. Driedger was squeezed out of Seattle at the start of the season but had a .916 save percentage in 15 games for Coachella Valley in the AHL at the time of his recall.

#11 The Carolina Hurricanes are not scoring enough and one of the reasons is that Andrei Svechnikov had managed just one goal on 41 shots in 16 games. He is out indefinitely with an upper-body injury, so Stefan Noesen has moved up the Carolina depth chart. Noesen has six points (3 G, 3 A) and 14 shots on goal in his past eight games and played a season-high 16:38 in Thursday’s win at Detroit.

#12 A top checking centre for the Tampa Bay Lightning, Anthony Cirelli is at his best when he is contributing at both ends of the rink. He is having a good run recently with seven points (5 G, 2 A) and 16 shots on goal in his past 6 games. Cirelli is playing with Tanner Jeannot and Brandon Hagel, a trio that is giving the Lightning legitimate secondary scoring behind their powerful top line.

#13 Detroit’s injuries have provided not only an opportunity for the aforementioned Michael Rasmussen, but also for Joe Veleno, a 23-year-old centre who has mostly been a fourth liner to this point in his career. In his past four games, Veleno has contributed three points (1 G, 2 A) while playing more than 21 minutes in every contest. He is centering Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane, while also getting first unit power play time. That may not last, especially once the Wings get healthy, but in the short term, Veleno suddenly finds himself offering potential value for fantasy managers.

#14 Boston Bruins centre Pavel Zacha is injured and that has opened the door for Morgan Geekie to take on a bigger role, skating on Boston’s top line with wingers Jake DeBrusk and David Pastrnak. Geekie had a career high 28 points (9 G, 19 A) in Seattle last season, so his offensive track record is limited, but he has played more than 17 minutes in back-to-back games contributed goal and an assist in those two contests.

#15 A big hit from Colorado Avalanche centre Nathan MacKinnon has landed Buffalo Sabres left winger Jeff Skinner on the injured list with an upper-body injury. That does create an opportunity for rookie Zach Benson who has shown flashes of skill on his way to a modest eight points (3 G, 5 A) in 20 games, but Benson is on a line with Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens, along with second unit power play time so, at the very least, it is worth monitoring his progress.

#16 Ottawa Senators defenceman Thomas Chabot is out for at least four weeks with a leg injury, which comes on the heels of a broken hand that cost him time earlier in the season. He has appeared in just nine games as a result, and his current injury opens the door for Jake Sanderson to step up as Ottawa’s No. 1 defenceman. Sanderson opened the season with 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in 14 games but has managed just two points (1 G, 1 A) in 10 games since. However, with the chance to quarterback the Sens’ top power play, Sanderson becomes more valuable for fantasy managers.

#17 Among players that have played at least 50 minutes in December, the leaders in individual expected goals per 60 minutes: Kyle Connor (2.81), John Tavares (2.67), Zach Hyman (2.30), Anders Lee (2.09), Quinton Byfield (2.03), Dylan Larkin (2.02), Austin Matthews (2.01), Colton Sissons (2.01), and Carter Verhaeghe (2.00). While there are familiar and expected names in that list, it should be an encouraging sign for the likes of Lee and Byfield, that their production could be sustained, while Sissons could be worth watching in deeper leagues as he has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 13 shots on goal in seven games this month.

#18 It has been a running theme here this season how unpredictable goaltenders can be. Among the 27 goaltenders that have appeared in at least four games this month, here are the leaders in save percentage: Juuse Saros (.953), Filip Gustavsson (.944), Connor Hellebuyck (.939), Petr Mrazek (.938), and Joey Daccord (.934). You will be forgiven for doing a double take at the last two names on that list. Then take a look at the other end. Here are the bottom five goaltenders for save percentage in December, minimum four games: Arvid Soderblom (.844), Igor Shesterkin (.865), Jake Oettinger (.868), Sergei Bobrovsky (.878), and Joonas Korpisalo (.884). Shesterkin and Oettinger are unexpected entries but consider that this is a very small sample size and not representative of a goalie’s overall value.

#19 Among defenceman to play at least 50 minutes this month, the leaders in individual expected goals per 60 minutes: Jacob MacDonald (0.93), Charlie McAvoy (0.61), Darnell Nurse (0.57), K’Andre Miller (0.55), and Drew Doughty (0.54). Leaders in shots on goal per 60 minutes: Mike Reilly (11.73), Justin Faulk (11.27), Jacob MacDonald (10.24), Rasmus Dahlin (9.47), and Morgan Rielly (8.90). MacDonald does have three goals in five games in December, but it is still tough to trust that he will have regular ice time in San Jose. Reilly is making the most of his opportunity with the Islanders. He has four points (1 G, 3 A) and 15 shots on goal in his past five games and played a season high 20:37 in Wednesdays win over Anaheim.

#20 Forwards who have yet to score in December with the highest total of shots on goal: Cole Caufield (29), Dylan Cozens (22), Yanni Gourde (22), Carl Grundstrom (18), Timo Meier (18), and Cam Atkinson (18). This should be encouraging, that these players are still generating shots on goal and that eventually leads to actual goals. In the case of someone like Caufield, who has established his credentials as a finisher, it would seem to be just a matter of time before he breaks through.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – OTTAWA SENATORS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 07 Oct 2023 20:32:56 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - MARCH 22: Ottawa Senators Left Wing Tim Stutzle (18) (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

REVIEW: When the Senators spent the summer of 2022 signing Claude Giroux, then 34 years old, and spending three picks, including the 2022 seventh overall, to acquire Alex DeBrincat, it was a clear sign that they hoped to exit the rebuilding phase. What followed though was a 39-35-8 record – a 13-point gain from a year prior, but insufficient for a postseason berth. Part of the issue was Ottawa finished a mediocre 18th in goals per game (3.16) despite adding two elite forwards. Alex DeBrincat’s 27 goals and 66 points in 82 contests was a regression compared to his 41-goal 2021-22 campaign with Chicago, but the bigger problem was a lack of offensive depth. Eight Senators players reached double digits in goals in contrast to 13 with Edmonton. Ottawa was also mediocre defensively, finishing 18th with a 5-on-5 expected goals against of 174.36, and unlike the Islanders, which squeaked into the playoffs with a worse offense and expected goals against, Ottawa didn’t have an elite goaltender masking their defensive woes. Instead, Cam Talbot and Anton Forsberg were merely average, which sums up the 2022-23 Senators nicely: Not bad, but not good enough.

What’s Changed? The Senators hope they’ve bolstered their mediocre goaltending by signing Joonas Korpisalo to replace Talbot, who left as a free agent. They also failed to agree to terms with DeBrincat, who was a restricted free agent, so they dealt him to Detroit in exchange for a solid middle-six forward in Dominik Kubalik, defensive prospect Donovan Sebrango and two draft picks. In an attempt to make up for the lost offense, Ottawa inked Vladimir Tarasenko to a one-year, $5 million deal.

What would success look like? Ottawa is looking to end its six-year playoff drought, but the competition in the Atlantic Division is intense. A strong year out of Joonas Korpisalo would certainly help, which is possible. He’s not an elite goaltender, but the 29-year-old is solid. A healthy season out of Joshua Norris, who scored 35 goals in 2021-22, but was limited to eight games last year due to a shoulder injury, would also provide Ottawa with a much-needed boost to its offensive depth. Between Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Giroux and Tarasenko, it’s reasonable to believe Ottawa will have two strong lines, but they need enough weapons to fill a decent third unit.

What could go wrong? However, Norris bouncing right back might be too much to hope for. The 24-year-old’s promise is clear, but that 35-goal campaign was also the first time in his career he even reached the 20-goal mark, so he’s far from proven. Meanwhile, Ottawa might get a bit less than Giroux’s 2022-23 finish of 79 points. After all, he’ll turn 36 in January. As far as injury risks go, Ottawa has a big one in elite defenseman Thomas Chabot, who has missed 37 contests over the last two years.

Top Breakout Candidate: One possible solution to Ottawa’s third-line question is Shane Pinto. Playing in his first full campaign, he supplied 20 goals and 35 points in 82 contests last year. Still just 22 years old, Pinto has the potential to start the campaign on the third line and then work himself into a bigger role, especially if Ottawa runs into injury troubles.

Forwards

Brady Tkachuk

Of the 15 forwards who registered over 200 hits last season, no one scored more than Tkachuk’s 35 goals. His 2022-23 season put him in some exclusive company. Alex Ovechkin is the only other player in the NHL’s recorded history to blend that volume of physicality and goal production. Tkachuk’s skillset makes him a unicorn and one of the premier power forwards in the league. Thanks to his willingness to go to the dirty areas of the ice and battle for deflections and loose pucks, Tkachuk has established himself as a shot-generation machine. Of all the qualified skaters who logged over 500 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time last season per NaturalStatTrick, only David Pastrnak averaged more shots per 60 minutes than Tkachuk. Any knocks to Tkachuk’s game are rooted in his defensive contributions and the notion he does not finish as many chances as he should given his shot volume. Considering he scored 35 goals, it may sound weird to read that he does not finish enough, but Tkachuk finished fourth in the league in expected goals (min. 500 5v5 TOI) in 2022-23. His expected goal metrics are always higher than his actual output. One of these years, it feels like if everything breaks right, he has the capacity to put up a monster offensive season. Like many of Ottawa’s other young players, Tkachuk’s poor defensive metrics can partially be explained as a product of the team’s personnel and defensive system. With a vastly improved defensive corps and a greater commitment to puck support as a five-man unit, Tkachuk’s metrics should continue to improve.

Tim Stützle

When the Senators invested in Tim Stützle, signing him to an eight-year contract worth an AAV of $8.35, they gambled on the German’s pedigree and offensive upside. His transition from the wing to centre during his sophomore year helped spark his ability to impact the game on both sides of the puck. In 2022-23, he rewarded the Senators with their long-term investment. He continued to take marked steps in his development offensively and defensively. He would finish the season leading the Senators in scoring with 39 goals and 90 points in 78 games. He became the third centre in franchise history to eclipse that point threshold but holds the distinction of being the youngest to do it at just 21 years of age. The departures of Connor Brown and Alex Formenton represented a significant loss to the Senators’ penalty killing units and Stützle was one of the forwards called upon to fill the void. It speaks to D.J. Smith’s growing confidence in him. Stützle tied for the team lead in shorthanded goals with three and averaged 1:16 of shorthanded ice time per game. Besides the natural growth of a young player, the jump in production can be explained by the quality of linemates. After spending most of the previous season playing predominantly with Alex Formenton and Connor Brown, centring Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux represented a significant improvement. As the team continues to improve around him, the hope is that his offensive production and defensive metrics will continue to improve.

Claude Giroux

Claude Giroux has only played one season for the Senators, but he already has leapt to the top of the list as the best free agent signing in franchise history. In his return home, the 35-year-old wowed fans by recording 35 goals and 79 points while playing in every single one of the Senators’ 82 games. Amazingly, the veteran’s 35 goals established a new personal regular season high. It was the first time Giroux had cracked the 30-goal mark since the 2017-18 season. This boost in production can be chalked up to the chemistry he developed alongside Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle. This trio generated more than 55 percent of the goals (58.49 GF%), shots (56.82 CF%), shots on goal (55.37) and expected goals (59.82 xGF%) at five-on-five per Evolving-Hockey. Playing predominantly as the right winger on this line Giroux had one of the best isolated defensive impacts on the team per Hockeyviz. His ability to impact the game at both ends of the ice was a huge addition to the Senators’ top six. In particular, his strength in the faceoff circle allowed his line to overcome Stützle’s struggles at the dot. Of the players who took more than 300 draws last season, Stützle’s 41.6 percent success rate was the eighth-worst mark in the league. Giroux insulated Stützle’s ineffectiveness with the league’s 10th-best mark at 58.3 percent.

Vladimir Tarasenko

Following the well-publicized departure of last season’s prize acquisition, Alex DeBrincat, the Senators shored up their top six scoring by inking Vladimir Tarasenko to a one-year contract worth $5 million. The signing of the four-time All-Star and 2019 Stanley Cup champion generated headlines. Tarasenko is a recognizable talent who can still be a productive NHL player. In 69 games split between the Blues and Rangers last season, Tarasenko recorded 18 goals and 50 points. It was a step down in production for the six-time 30-goal scorer, but he represented the best available offensive talent that remained on the free agent market. There is a chance that Tarasenko’s waning production is part of an age-related decline, but the good news is that he is just one season removed from the second-best five-on-five shooting percentage of his career (14.8 per Evolving-Hockey). Last season’s (9.7) was the second-worst. A motivated Tarasenko should be extremely valuable to the Senators. If he can get back closer to his career norms, he will have a chance to cash in on the open market next summer. If his production continues to decline, the Senators will still need his offence to outweigh his defensive contributions. Tarasenko’s become a liability on the defensive side of the puck. There is also the question of fit. As a winger who prefers playing his off-side, the addition of Tarasenko to the right wing could necessitate moving one of Claude Giroux or Drake Batherson to their off-side.

Josh Norris

On the heels of a sophomore season in which he exploded for 35 goals and 55 points in 66 games, centre Josh Norris cashed in by signing an eight-year pact carrying an AAV of $7.95 million. The contract represented a significant commitment to the team’s second-line centre and set a relatively high standard for Norris to live up to. Last season, he never got the chance. A devastating shoulder injury curtailed his season and limited him to eight games. So much of Ottawa’s postseason aspirations hinge on Norris’ recovery and his ability to resemble the player that he was pre-injury. Even when healthy, it was fair to believe that Norris would experience some natural regression in his shooting percentage (20.3 in 2021-22). Fortunately, he has historically been a strong shooter throughout his career, so that regression should not be too severe - provided that Norris’ recovery does not inhibit his ability to shoot the puck. Power play usage will be another thing to monitor. Of the forwards who logged over 100 minutes of power play ice time in 2021-22 per NaturalStatTrick, only two forwards averaged a higher goals per 60 minutes of ice time rate than Norris – Chris Kreider and Leon Draisaitl. Norris should continue to play the right side on the first power play unit, but the addition of Vladimir Tarasenko, who also works from that spot, could impact those minutes.

Drake Batherson

On the surface, it is easy to look at Drake Batherson’s numbers and arrive at the conclusion that he had a down year. Scoring 22 goals and tallying 62 points in 82 games is not a terrible season by any measure, but that minus-35 was unsightly. Considering Batherson put up 17 goals in each of the two previous seasons while playing in what was essentially half a season’s worth of games, expectations for him were high. After scoring on more than 15 percent of his shots in each of his previous two campaigns, Batherson’s shooting percentage was almost halved to 8.8 percent last season. Although NaturalStatTrick’s data shows that Batherson’s goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time dropped from 1.08 to 0.37 last season, there are a number of reasons to believe that he can reach another level. He shot the puck more than he ever had in his career. His average of 8.87 shots per 60 of five-on-five ice time per NaturalStatTrick represented a career-high. Last season, only Buffalo’s Tage Thompson (15) hit more posts than Batherson. Provided he can stay healthy and preserve that kind of shot volume, better luck and a regression to the mean in terms of his shooting percentage should allow Batherson to enjoy a career season in 2023-24.

Shane Pinto

For the first time since Brady Tkachuk scored 22 goals during the 2018-19 season, Shane Pinto became the eighth rooking in franchise history to score 20 or more goals in his rookie campaign – joining Tkachuk, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, Patrick Eaves, Daniel Alfredsson, Alexandre Daigle and Alexei Yashin. Pinto started the 2022-23 season strong, scoring six goals in his first eight games. But, when Josh Norris was felled by a shoulder injury, Pinto moved up the depth chart and no longer received the luxury of being insulated. Despite more challenging assignments and responsibilities, the Senators still outshot (51.4 CF%) and created a higher percentage of expected goals (50.7 xGF%) when Pinto was on the ice at five-on-five. With the return of Norris, Pinto will once again be relegated to the third line and potentially easier matchups. For an organization that struggled to generate offence from its third and fourth lines, a returning Pinto armed with the confidence of knowing he can pot 20 goals will be vital to this team’s push for the postseason. One of the things to keep an eye on with Pinto this season will be his work on the penalty kill. Following the departures of Austin Watson, Dylan Gambrell, and Tyler Motte, shorthanded minutes will need to be reallocated. One of the benefactors of those responsibilities should be Pinto.

Dominik Kubalik

As the lone NHL piece that was returned to the Senators in this offseason’s Alex DeBrincat trade, Dominik Kubalik is a reasonably priced player who offers the Senators affordable depth scoring. He is in the last year of a two-year deal carrying an AAV of $2.5 million. In 81 games with the Red Wings last season, he scored 20 goals and 45 points. Brady Tkachuk is entrenched as the team’s first-line left winger, but beyond that, the second line could be open. If Vladimir Tarasenko plays on his preferred off-side, it could necessitate Giroux or Batherson moving to their off-side to accommodate him. The alternative is Kubalik because of his natural left-shot handedness. If he does, there is a chance for Kubalik to flourish. He finished third on the Red Wings in individual expected goals for per 60 (0.81 ixG/60) and individual scoring chances per 60 (7.71 iSCF/60) per NaturalStatTrick. He thrived playing alongside Dylan Larkin and David Perron. Away from Detroit’s top talent, the underlying numbers cratered. Something to keep an eye on is if Kubalik winds up on a line with Tarasenko. The Senators’ forward group is not exactly renowned for its defensive aptitude and their two biggest additions in Kubalik and Tarasenko are not going to bolster that weakness. They could exacerbate it.

Mathieu Joseph

It is never ideal to be referenced in the same breath as the infamous Bill Muckalt, but Mathieu Joseph was the only Senator forward to log more than 500 minutes of ice time who failed to score a five-on-five goal in 2022-23. According to NaturalStatTrick’s data, of the 382 forwards who logged more than 500 minutes of five-on-five ice time, only two forwards failed to score one goal last season: Montreal’s Jake Evans and Joseph. It was a precipitous drop in offence. Following his trade to the Senators at last year’s trade deadline, Joseph averaged 3.89 points per 60 minutes of ice time. Being an 11-game sample, it was naive to believe that this brief stretch was truly representative of his offensive upside. Last season’s output of three goals and 15 points was incredibly disappointing for Sens management after they locked him up to a three-year contract worth a $2.9 million AAV. Without any even-strength production out of Joseph, it really hurts the Senators’ secondary scoring. Hopefully, the return of Shane Pinto to the third line will boost Joseph’s productivity. Fortunately for the Senators, while Joseph struggled to produce offensively, he is still a competent defensive forward and a valuable contributor on the penalty kill that ranked in the top half of the league last season.

Defence

Thomas Chabot

The 2022-23 season was a polarizing one that showcased the best and worst of Thomas Chabot. Often last season, he would take heat for his defensive play and lapses. The numbers backed it up. According to Evolving-Hockey’s Total Defence (DEF) metric that combines the even strength and shorthanded contributions to arrive at a single number for defensive value created, 2022-23 was tied for being the worst defensive season of his career. The good news is that the site’s Total Offence (OFF) metric, which combines even strength and power play contributions measured 2022-23 as being his best offensive year – surpassing his impressive 2018-19 season in which he scored 14 goals and 55 points. One of the things that hurt Chabot last year is that he logged more than 30 minutes of ice time with eight defensive partners last season – including 257 with an ineffective Nikita Zaitsev, one of the least valuable defencemen in the league. Even with poor defensive partners and a lack of continuity, Chabot was rated as the team’s most valuable player according to according to Evolving-Hockey’s ‘wins above replacement’ (WAR) and ‘goals above replacement’ (GAR) metrics. It speaks to his importance in Ottawa’s puck movement and transition game. A full season alongside Jakob Chychrun will inevitably make things easier for Chabot and improve his numbers, but the Senators will need him to be more reliable for the team to take a step forward.

Jakob Chychrun

It took time, but the Senators finally addressed their need for a top-four defenceman by acquiring Jakob Chychrun at the 2023 trade deadline. A lower-body injury limited Chychrun to 12 games with Ottawa, but in those games, he averaged 21 minutes of ice time scoring two goals and adding three assists. Most of his minutes were spent playing with Travis Hamonic to some underwhelming 5-on-5 shot and goal metrics. When they were on the ice together, the Senators generated 48.9 percent of the goals (GF%), 40 percent of the expected goals (xGF%), 43.8 percent of the shots (CF%) and 44.2 percent of the shots on goal per Evolving-Hockey. Fortunately, Chychrun is expected to open the season playing alongside Thomas Chabot. In a very small sample size of 35 minutes of five-on-five ice time, the duo was exceptional – generating approximately 60 percent of the shots and expected goals. A wrinkle is that Ottawa’s three most talented defencemen are all natural left shots. Chychrun has experience playing his off-side, so that mitigates most of the concern, but he has missed 152 games across his seven seasons in the league. With so much invested in Chychrun being the solution to shore the blue line, if he needs to play his natural side or continues to be plagued by injuries, it could really hamper the team’s postseason aspirations.

Jake Sanderson

When Jake Sanderson was selected with the fifth overall selection in 2020, it created some ripples and consternation. Was he the best available defenceman? Should the Senators have targeted another highly skilled forward? Sanderson’s rookie campaign erased any concerns about his selection. He contributed four goals and 32 points in 77 games last season. Only Owen Power recorded more points as a rookie defenceman than Sanderson. Where he thrived was on the defensive side of the puck. His elite skating ability, gap control and active stick made life frustrating for attacking forwards. Perhaps the most flattering thing that you can say about Sanderson’s play last season is that he helped land veteran Travis Hamonic a new two-year contract. The pair logged over 500 minutes of five-on-five ice time together and the results were average. When this pairing was on the ice, the Senators generated as many shots and expected goals as the opposition (50.5 CF%, 49.5 xGF%). They did however give up a greater percentage of actual goals (42.9 GF%), but that can be attributed in part to bad luck. Sanderson is expected to play with Artem Zub this season. In 239 five-on-five minutes together, the Senators generated more of the shots (52.7 SF%) and expected goals (53.3 xGF%). Most impressively, the team suppressed a lot more shots when this pairing was together. Put in contrast with the Sanderson/Hamonic pairing which allowed 33.6 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five, the Sanderson/Zub pairing allowed 24.9.

Artem Zub

Since joining the Senators from SKA Saint Petersburg of the KHL in 2020, Artem Zub has developed a steadfast reputation for being the Senators’ best defensive defenceman. It is that reputation that earned the 27-year-old a four-year contract extension worth an AAV of $4.6 million. And, it is a reputation that is backed up by the data. Using HockeyViz’s data that measures a player’s isolated offensive and defensive impacts, no Senators defenceman had a more significant defensive impact than Zub. Evolving-Hockey’s total defence metric (DEF) had Zub ranked second on the team behind Erik Brannstrom, but injuries limited Zub to 53 games last season - robbing him of the chance to accrue more value. Historically, Zub has always been a player who makes those around him better and in 2023-24, he will be tasked with trying to get more performance and development out of sophomore Jake Sanderson. Considering how well Sanderson fared in his first season playing meaningful minutes carrying Travis Hamonic, the likelihood of Sanderson helping push Zub to a career year feels very real.

Goaltending

Joonas Korpisalo

The rebuilding Ottawa Senators have made it clear in the last few years – goaltenders who are moving on from old teams have a place with the Atlantic Division underdogs, and there’s plenty of time in their rebuild window to be patient with anyone needing a little extra time to get their game back on track. For former Columbus Blue Jackets tandem starter Joonas Korpisalo, it’s the perfect place – out of the public eye, and with a team that’s been slowly but surely turning things around – to prove that he still has an NHL-capable game and establish himself as a number one outside of the free-falling Blue Jackets.

Korpisalo stylistically looked like the less reliable option in Columbus, with a game that relies almost too much on flat angles and post coverage in a way that opened up holes and made him easy to predict. But while Elvis Merzlikins had the flashier game, Korpisalo was the team’s better option last year – and he showed during a brief stint post-trade deadline with the Los Angeles Kings that he might be predictable, but he’s reliable. He struggles at times with rebounds, but his tracking is effective – and for the Senators, the most important thing is that he’s both still relatively young (he’s only 29) and he has a fairly good track record of staying healthy. After multiple years of bad injury luck, the Senators should count it as a win if Korpisalo is even league average while maintaining his reputation as a goaltender who won’t go down for most of the year.

Projected starts: 45-50