Thomas Vanek – McKeen's Hockey

Red Flags – Detroit Red Wings 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 18:59:42 +0000

STATE OF PLAY/REVIEW - In coach Jeff Blashill’s third season the Detroit Red Wings missed the playoffs for the second straight season finishing 26^th after not missing the playoffs since the 1980’s. GM Ken Holland has steered the ship since 1997, winning the Stanley Cup three times in that period, the last one a decade ago. It appears from the outside looking in that a rebuild would be in order.

To an extent Holland has begun that process. Their success over the decades of his leadership have been built on a strong farm system and the ability to develop prospects through Grand Rapids. He astutely added draft picks last season and picked 11 times in the 2018 Draft including four picks in the top 36 delivering two high ceiling prospects in Filip Zadina and Joe Veleno. The logic would follow in a salary cap league that was another season with a high-end draft pick would set them up to target three or four years down the road. Yet Holland added more free agent veterans to round out his line-up resigning Mike Green, added Thomas Vanek and goaltender Jonathan Bernier - moves intended to bolster a playoff contender rather than opening room in the line-up for youth.

VETERAN CAP CRUNCH - They also have the least amount of cap space in the league limiting opportunities to take bad contracts from contenders for more prospects. They have four defenseman 32 years and old signed for a total of $17.575 million total AAV averaging $4.4 million AAV, only one of which, Niklas Kronwall is not signed beyond this year, the other three with two-year contracts. Rounding out the group is Danny DeKeyser, the youngster at 28-years-old, signed for another five years at $5.0 million AAV. All five defenseman have no-trade contracts, with Jonathan Ericsson and Niklas Kronwall being limited.

At forward they have five forward 30 years and older with a combined yearly salary cap of $22.4 million in Henrik Zetterberg, Frans Nielsen, Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm and Thomas Vanek, only Zetterberg does not possess a full no-trade contract, and he will undoubtedly end his career as a Red Wing – and back trouble is threatening his season. Once again, options to stock the cupboard are slim here.

Dylan Larkin

BUILDING BLOCKS - They already have in place some excellent young talent in the line-up with recently extended 22-year-old Dylan Larkin for five years at $6.1 million AAV. He and 23-year-old sniper Anthony Mantha teamed up down the stretch and represent a potent duo next season. Continuing to graduate prospectS out of Grand Rapids, Tyler Bertuzzi appeared in 48 games last season and ready for a full NHL season. He plays intense hockey with enough skill to provide an effective agitator role on a top six line while providing offense. They hope that the highly talented Filip Zadina, consensus third overall pick who slipped to sixth, can contribute immediately in a scoring role in the top six. Always a challenge for an 18-year old but Zadina has elite skills to make the leap.

They would also like to see last years ninth overall pick 6’6” inch fleet footed Michael Rasmussen begin to play a role but likely will draw third or fourth line minutes flanked by defensive minded veterans. He scored 33 points in 14 playoff games in the WHL, so he may be eased on the wing for his offensive contributions. After two seasons for Evgeny Svechnikov in Grand Rapids, and a 14-game trial in the NHL last year in which he did not look out of place, may be ready for a full-time role. His production fell in his second year in the AHL, and whether he can put his promising game together remains to be seen.

The rest of the forward spots will be filled out by veterans to provide some shelter for the youngsters. On defense Filip Hronek will get an opportunity to graduate from Grand Rapids but will receive sheltered minutes at best. A good puck rushing defenseman, but his game needs overall development.

Adding veteran Jonathan Bernier to back up Jimmy Howard gives them veteran presence in net and a guard against injury. That provides more of security blanket and ensures they are competitive in most games after having led the NHL in one-goal game losses. However, this is a team that was 21^st in goals against per game and iced the 24^th worst power play and 23^rd worst penalty kill. Thomas Vanek may provide some help with the man advantage, he looked very good scoring 15 points in 19 games with Columbus down the stretch, otherwise neither area was addressed in the off-season and not sure Vanek is enough of a difference maker.

OUTLOOK - Holland is trying to rebuild his youthful core while still icing a potential playoff unit and rebuild on the fly. He has some promising pieces and should add another one this season. For all his efforts to get back to the postseason it will be a long shot and if injuries, as the Zetterberg news may foreshadow, begin to hit the veteran group it could be a long season.

2016 NHL Draft Guide: Vancouver Canucks Draft Strategy

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 24 Jun 2016 18:21:36 +0000

09 Apr 2016; Vancouver Canucks forward Jake Virtanen (18) against the Edmonton Oilers

Eric Crawford, the man who led the previous two Canucks drafts, seeing the team select strong two-way forwards with offensive upside in Jarred McCann (recently traded to Florida for Erik Gudbranson in a multi-player deal), Jake Virtanen and Brock Boeser, is now a pro scout with Montreal. His position, as Director of Player Personnel, does not seem to have been filled. Instead, the Canucks look to have a four-headed management team with their fingers on the amateur draft. GM Jim Benning is long known for his scouting acumen, having held key personnel roles with the Bruins before being hired by Vancouver. Judd Brackett is the new Director of Amateur Scouting. He has significant background working both the QMJHL and USHL. There are also two “Chief” amateur scouts in Ron Delorme and Thomas Gradin, the former focusing on North America and the latter on Europe. They preside over a network of 18 amateur scouts.

April 09, 2016: Brock Boeser (16) of North Dakota rushes through the neutral zone during the 2016 NCAA Frozen Four championship game between North Dakota and Quinnipiac

In light of the newness of this management structure, looking at previous Canucks drafts – even though Delorme and Gradin had both ranked highly in the organization for many years – is less instructive than finding a type of player that is attractive to Benning. He spent eight years as the Director of Amateur Scouting for the Buffalo Sabres, covering drafts from 1999-2006. During that period, the Sabres drafts were very much hit and miss. On the positive end, early picks were used on relative successes like Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, Keith Ballard, and Daniel Paille. On the negative, other first round selections under Benning included Barrett Heisten, Artyom Kryukov, Marek Zagrapan and Denis Persson. To Benning’s credit, there were also a number of mid- and late-round finds, including Ryan Miller, Paul Gaustad, Andrej Sekera, Clarke MacArthur and Jan Hejda. Since taking over in Vancouver, Benning’s Canucks have drafted heavily out of the CHL, but have not hesitated to select Europeans from any major hockey playing nation, and as the Boeser pick proved, the USHL is also a possibility. Big players are the norm, but the Canucks have also used one pick in each of the past three drafts on an undersized blueliner, with some early success in Jordan Subban, Gustav Forsling and Guillaume Brisebois. Also notable is that all of their first round picks in the Benning age have been used on forwards.

USA NTDP u18 vs Sioux City Musketeers

Possible picks: In all honesty, I don’t think the Canucks will pigeon-hole themselves into any specific position or player type in the early going. There is no reason for them not to select the best player on their board at fifth overall. That might be Olli Juolevi, or Alexander Nylander and Michael McLeod would also not be too surprising, if not one of the other available centers in Clayton Keller or Logan Brown. With their remaining six picks, I expect the Canucks to spread their nets as wide as possible and draft from different areas. Tyler Benson or Jonathan Dahlen would be great ‘gets’ in the second round, but their draft board will not be easy to read. Also a possibility is the Canucks trading more late rounds picks as sweeteners in various NHL trades.

WILD HORSES

McKeen's Hockey — Tue, 26 Aug 2014 22:18:26 +0000

The Wild had another decent season finishing fourth in their division and 12th overall while qualifying for the playoffs for the second consecutive season. Competition in the Central Division and Western Conference is tough. Minnesota has a good blend of veterans and youth throughout the roster but there are questions throughout as well.

The forwards are led by the likes of veterans Zach Parise, Jason Pominville and Captain Mikko Koivu. Minnesota scored 2.43 goals per game, a number they should be able to increase going forward. The addition of Thomas Vanek should provide a boost to the offense as a significant upgrade over Dany Heatley. The youth also arrived last season to provide secondary scoring and fantasy value. Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter, and Charlie Coyle all enjoyed a breakout season, while Justin Fontaine and Erik Haula also had impressive performances. The Wild will be able to roll three offensive lines with good depth but may be lacking the role players who provide grit, toughness and defense.

The defense is anchored by the minute munching Ryan Suter who led the NHL in TOI with a whopping 29:24 minutes per game. There is a significant drop off after Suter with Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, and Marco Scandella in the middle tier. The final two roster spots should be contested by journeymen Keith Ballard and Jonathon Blum, and free agents Christian Folin and Justin Falk.

Perhaps the biggest question is in goal. Ilya Bryzgalov was brought in as a rental at the trade deadline to provide insurance but was not resigned. Despite their concerns in goal, the Wild declined to make any changes and will enter the season with Niklas Backstrom, Josh Harding and Darcy Kuemper. Backstrom is aging, in decline, and fragile while Harding is dealing with M.S. and is a major question. Kuemper may be the safest fantasy option.

We have posted the following player profiles: Zach Parise, Thomas Vanek, Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville, Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle, Nino Neiderreiter, Erik Haula, Ryan Suter, Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, Darcy Kuemper, Josh Harding

NHL trade deadline fantasy review

Peter Harling — Fri, 07 Mar 2014 14:32:51 +0000

The NHL trade deadline is the second most exciting hockey day of the year, second only to the fantasy draft.

Most fantasy leagues have a trade deadline of their own, and the fallout of the NHL trades weighs heavy on what happens in your fantasy trades.

To help make sense of it all let’s look at some of the players who benefit, and some who’s value hurt from the NHL trade deadline

Increasing Value

Marian Gaborik, LA Kings

To start his tenure in LA, Gaborik will play on a line with Anze Kopitar and Justin Williams. This should give him a boost, as well the Kings anemic offence. Gaborik has slightly struggled to produce offensively in Columbus this season, partially due to injuries. Injuries will always be a concern with Gaborik who is scheduled to be a UFA this summer. It is difficult to gauge what type of contract he can command, but in the range of $6 million is not out of the question. With his age, susceptibility to injuries and uncertainty of his contract, this could be a sell high opportunity for some one looking at Gaborik for a playoff run.

Lee Stempniak, Pittsburgh Penguins

Often players enjoy a “honeymoon period” when they join a new team. The streaky Stempniak personifies this and with the Dupuis injury, he may see time on a line with Sidney Crosby. He went on a tear after joining Phoenix from Toronto and is only 30% owned in Fantrax leagues. He could be a sneaky great waiver or free agent pick up.

Andrej Meszaros, Boston Bruins

Injuries have cost him his top four pairing rankings and the Flyers have given up on him. Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli is familiar with Meszaros from their time in Ottawa and he played in Sochi with the Czech team with Zdeno Chara. The pair looked good together and with the injury to Denis Sidenberg the Bruins need a top four option. Meszaros could be it. Or he could be the next Tomas Kaberle. Given Meszaros is only 28 and has managed 17 points in only 38 games I think he is worth the risk.

Ales Hemsky, Ottawa Senators

Hemsky was once considered the future of the Edmonton Oilers. But that was a long time ago it seems and now the Oilers belong to Taylor Hall, RNH and Jordan Eberle. Hemsky is a highly talented player who desperately needed a fresh start on a new team with a top six opportunity. Expect the Sens to try desperately to find some chemistry between Hemsky with Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek in an attempt to sneak into the playoffs. If the experiment is successful, the trio could be lightning in a bottle and fantasy hockey gravy.

Ryan Miller, St. Louis Blues

All season long this trade was highly speculated and final came to fruition. Miller had been having a spectacular season with the Sabres, his win stats do not support it but the eye test does not lie. Maybe you can catch a Miller owner sleeping and snag him quick. Now that he is a member of the Blues expect the number of saves to drop, and the wins and shut outs to pile up. It is also reasonable to expect Miller to resign with the Blues as well for keeper leagues.

Jhonas Enroth, Buffalo Sabres

With the trade of Miller (and Halak) the door has never been more open for the starting position in Buffalo. Enroth will battle with Neuvirth for the job. Neuvirth has had chances in Washington and failed to seize the job where as this is Enroths first kick at the can. On a poor Buffalo team this season, he has a GAA of 2.9 and a save % of .911 which is comparable to Millers 2.71 GAA, and .923 save %

Brandon Pirri, Florida Panthers

Former Chicago and current Florida GM Dale Tallon is very familiar with the upside of Brandon Pirri. Pirri was buried behind the depth of the Stanley Cup Champions deep roster, but will be given an opportunity to blossom in Florida. In 29 games ha has only 11 points, but has only played an average of 12:10 minutes per game. Pirri played his first game on a line with Jonathan Huberdeau and he is only 39% owned. Another player worth a pick up if he is available.

Joni Ortio, Calgary Flames

Ortio was not traded at the deadline, but Reto Berra was. With Karri Ramo still injured that makes Ortio the current starting goalie in Calgary. Ortio is only 14% owned this week.

Decreasing in Value

Thomas Vanek, Montreal Canadiens

Vanek had an embarrassing Olympic performance. He is a streaky scorer will not be playing with John Tavares anymore. With a cap hit north of $7 million and heading to free agency, I would not touch Vanek with your ten foot pole.

Martin St. Louis, New York Rangers

St. Louis will still score and provide offense, but expect a slight decline now he is not on the high flying Lightning, and is no longer with Stamkos.

Tim Thomas, Dallas Stars

Thomas was the starting goalie in Florida when healthy. It will be difficult for him to usurp Kari Lehtonen in Dallas and see regular starts. On the bright side, when he does play his stats should be much better as the Stars are a much better team.

Dustin Penner, Washington Capitals

Penner may not respond well to being traded from Anaheim where the team was extremely successful and he was playing on the Getzlaf – Perry line and enjoying individual success. Penner is traditionally a streaky scorer subject to long droughts of indifferent play and motivational issues. This could be project that blows up on the Caps, don’t make the same mistake.

Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals

The addition of Jaroslav Halak in Washington ends the rotating three man goalie circus. Halak will be the starting goalie and Holtby will be the backup. The only saving grace for Holtby could be Halak is a UFA this off season, but it looks like the Caps have made a decision on Holtby.

Rene Bourque, Montreal Canadiens

Bourque has struggled this season and his value continues to decline. The addition of Vanek could see Bourque see more time in the press box and fourth line which all but kills his value.

NHL: Top 30 Scorers Fenwick/Corsi by Game

Gus Katsaros — Fri, 22 Mar 2013 21:44:28 +0000

It’s been written that a picture is worth 1000 words.

If that’s true, then this is going to be a 30,000 word blog post .. if there ever was one. This is actually going to be around 30,500, but hey, who’s counting.

Before presenting the following, a little explanation is in order.

The hockey world (fuelled by bloggers and math nerdlingers) is breaking new ground with the ability to analyze players and using technology to better capture the nuances missed in game to game situations.

Websites like Gabe Desjardins Behind the Net and David Johnson Hockey Analysis have become valuable resources to decipher the numbers and put meaning to the way player’s performance is analyzed.

Two of the measures act as a proxy for a team’s possession of the puck, providing estimates of player’s time with the puck. A good primer for advanced stats is here (and I will delve more into using analytics in this space here on McKeen’s)

Corsi (a stat named after Buffalo Sabres goaltending coach Jim Corsi) is a ratio measuring shots on goal, blocked shots and missed shots fired at the opposition net, over the same criteria fired upon the players own net. JP at Japers Rink has a good introduction to the statistic and Broad Street Hockey advances the discussion with a comprehensive look at Advanced stats over a series of posts.

The logic dictates that the team that has greater possession of the puck will likely be firing upon the opposition’s goal rather than a player’s own goal is a signal to indicate that team has puck possession.

Fenwick is a similar measure, however it removes the blocked shots, while still providing a ratio of shots on goal and missed shots. The measure is defined here from Raw Charge – a Tampa Bay Lightning blog on SB Nation:

Fenwick: Measure of shots for and missed shots for as a percentage of all shots taken. Used more for teams than players. Often divided into game situation : Score-tied, 1-up, 1-down, 2-up, 2-down, 3-up, 3-down. This is because teams that are behind tend to shoot more than teams that are ahead, and the further behind they are the more pronounced this "score effect" is. It's so pronounced after falling 3 behind that everything goes out the window and there's no real point in separating it out any further.

Fenwick is also occasionally divided by period, as shooting tendencies change the further into a game one gets.

Fenwick measures tend to be more predictive of win-loss records for a season than Corsi measures, but Corsi is better for short-term analysis of puck possession, as it includes more events and so accounts for outliers (randomness) better. Just remember Fenwick = teams, long-term; Corsi = players and teams, shorter-term.

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These measures are more indicative of trends and apply for better use over greater sample sizes, but I was curious to see the game-to-game effects of both Corsi and Fenwick measures.

To do that, I was able to get all the game data from timeonice.com measuring each game’s corsi and fenwick events broken down by each individual components. An example is here, using the Leafs and Sabres game from March 21, 2013

After compiling all the data for each individual game, I was able to put together a game-by-game look at the differences of each measure, by team and then by player.

This is where the 30,000 words come into play. The following is a visual representation of the top-30 scorers in the NHL (as of Mar 22, 2013) based on their individual Corsi and Fenwick measures on a game-to-game basis. Note the numbers across the horizontal axis are the game numbers assigned by the NHL.

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