Tomas Tatar – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: DADOUN – FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – What to make of the Buffalo Sabres – Teams and players to target this week

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 14 Dec 2024 16:41:42 +0000

_{ST. LOUIS, MO - FEBRUARY 25: Sabres center Tage Thompson (72) during a NHL game between the Buffalo Sabres and the St. Louis Blues on February 25, 2022, at Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire),}

How should we define the 2024-25 Buffalo Sabres? On paper, they’re not a terrible team. Tage Thompson is an elite goal scorer, and Alex Tuch is a good first-line forward and well suited to being Thompson’s accomplish. Rasmus Dahlin, though currently out with a back injury, is a high-end offensive blueliner, and the Sabres also have two promising young defensemen on the rise in Owen Power and Bowen Byram. In net, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has shown that he can be a solid option.

This isn’t a good team either, though. The Sabres do have some offensive depth, especially with Jason Zucker enjoying a comeback campaign (seven goals and 20 points through 29 appearances), but their overall scoring still isn’t anything special. The blueliners do have a mixture of talent and promise, but as a squad, the Sabres have struggled on defense, as evidenced by the team ranking 22nd in xGA/60 (3.13) per Moneypuck. Those shortcomings have trickled down to Luukkonen, who has an 8-8-3 record, 2.79 GAA and .903 save percentage in 20 starts despite a passable plus-2.6 goals saved above expected.

More than anything, Buffalo is inconsistent. Sometimes this group can click, which led to Buffalo looking like a potential contender for a playoff spot earlier in the campaign, but other times they fall apart. Buffalo has lost its last eight games, dropping its record to 11-14-4.

That kind of inconsistency would be more forgivable if Buffalo was a rebuilding team, but is that still an appropriate definition for the Sabres? They certainly do still have younger players like defensemen Power and Byram, forwards Dylan Cozens and Zach Benson as well as goaltender Devon Levi honing his game in the minors. None of those five have celebrated their 24th birthday yet, so it’s reasonable to believe their game will continue to grow.

At the same time, Tuch and Thompson are already in their prime, albeit in the early stages at 28 and 27 years old, respectively. Dahlin is still young but also in his seventh campaign, so ideally this is a foundation that should have started to get results by now.

But those results never come. You could easily make an argument that this is a rebuilding team even with those three either in or approaching their prime, but you could have made the argument that basically every Sabres team over the last decade has been a rebuilding squad. At some point, you need to transition from rebuild.

It’s been nine years since Jack Eichel was selected as the No. 2 overall pick to be the Sabres’ future. It’s been six years since Dahlin was selected as the No. 1 overall pick to headline Buffalo’s defense. It’s been four years since Power was taken with the top pick, giving the Sabres a potentially amazing blue-line duo. It’s been three years since that relationship soured to the point where Buffalo traded him to Vegas.

Buffalo hasn’t participated in a single playoff game over that span. That’d be bad enough, but the drought dates back even further. When Buffalo was last a playoff team in 2011, Tomas Vanek was the Sabres’ leading scorer and Thompson’s age. Tyler Ennis was among the team’s promising young forwards while Tyler Myers was a sophomore coming off a Calder Trophy-winning campaign. Ryan Miller was in his prime, having won the Vezina Trophy the previous year. Lindy Ruff was the bench boss… well, actually, that’s true now too… but there were six bench bosses for Buffalo between Ruff’s tenure with the team that ended during the 2012-13 campaign and his current assignment with the team.

The Sabres’ playoff appearance drought is the longest in NHL history. That’s got to way on the team, and you have to wonder if it will eventually lead to talented players getting frustrated in Buffalo as it has for others in the past. Still, it’s not as if this is a doomed team.

As stated at the top, there are positives to be found in this roster, and the place we’re judging the Sabres from now might be at or near their low point. There’s still season enough for them to turn this thing around. If they don’t, there is still hope for the future with this young group…even if that promise feels a little hollow after so many other failed rebuild attempts.

Calgary Flames (Tue vs. BOS, Thu vs. OTT, Sat vs. CHI)

The Flames have just three games scheduled for next week, but all those contests are at home, and it’s a pretty favorable schedule. Boston, which the Flames will host Tuesday, did have a 7-2-0 stretch from Nov. 21-Dec. 7, but the Bruins’ have fallen back after big losses to Winnipeg and Seattle over their past two games. After facing the Bruins, Calgary will host Ottawa and Chicago on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. Neither of those adversaries are in a playoff position.

Jonathan Huberdeau’s eight-year, $84 million contract is looking like it might go down as one of the worst contracts in recent memory, but he’s at least hot at the moment, providing four goals and nine points across his past six appearances. Will he keep that up? It’s possible, but it’s hard to get too excited. His 11 goals and 21 points through 30 outings overall still puts him on pace to get 57 points, which isn’t bad, but it’s well below the type of numbers he put up in Florida. Additionally, he has a 21.6 shooting percentage compared to his career average of 12.5, so if anything, Huberdeau’s benefited from some good puck luck and is more likely to slow as the campaign progresses than maintain that overall scoring pace.

If Huberdeau has potentially overperformed, would Andrei Kuzmenko be at the other end of the spectrum? No one expects him to repeat his 39-goal, 74-point performance from 2022-23, but is his goal and 10 points through 28 outings in 2024-25 simply the result of bad luck? His 3.3 shooting percentage is unusually low, but I’m more concerned about his decline in shots. He’s averaging just 4.1 shots/60, down from 6.8 last year.

Of his 30 shots this campaign, 19 have been fired from high-danger locations, which does put him ahead of the league average for forwards of 12.8, so that is a little bit of a silver lining. He’s on track for 52 high-danger shots this campaign, which would be down from 60 last year, a drop of 13.3 percent, whereas his overall shot total is on track to finish at 82, compared to 121 in 2023-24, a decline of 32.2 percent. So a deeper dive suggests things might not be quite as bad as they seem -- at least in terms of shot quality -- but it’s still not good, just less bad.

It's fair to believe that Kuzmenko’s shooting percentage will climb as the campaign progresses, but unless he starts getting a bit more aggressive with the puck, I wouldn’t count on him putting up numbers sufficient to give him relevance in the majority of fantasy leagues.

We might see better from Nazem Kadri, though, at least relative to his current point pace. He has 10 goals and 19 points in 30 appearances this campaign, which is a far cry from his 75-point showing in 2023-24. Kadri has been a steady contributor recently, though, supplying five goals and 11 points through his past 13 outings. He’s not a safe bet to reach the 70-point milestone again, but he was getting significantly fewer assists than is normal early in the campaign, and that seems to be balancing out and is likely to continue to do so. There’s a good chance he’ll finish the season as Calgary’s scoring leader.

Colorado Avalanche (Mon @ VAN, Thu @ SJS, FRI @ ANA, Sun vs. SEA)

The Avalanche will start next week on the road, playing in Vancouver on Monday, San Jose on Thursday and Anaheim on Friday. Colorado will then conclude the week by hosting the Kraken.

Colorado acquired Mackenzie Blackwood along with Givani Smith and a 2027 fifth-round pick from San Jose in exchange for Alexandar Georgiev, Nikolai Kovalenko, a 2025 fifth-round pick and a 2026 second-round selection.

With Blackwood on side, the Avalanche have now completely changed their goaltending tandem. They started with Georgiev and Justus Annunen, and now have Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood. The 32-year-old Wedgewood started the campaign with Nashville, posting a 1-2-1 record, 3.69 GAA and .878 save percentage through five appearances, but he’s done far better since joining the Avalanche, going 3-2-0 with a 1.92 GAA and a .931 save percentage across five outings. Of course, that’s a small sample size, and Wedgewood typically hasn’t been more than an acceptable backup goaltender, so Blackwood will be needed too.

For his part, Blackwood had a 6-9-3 record, 3.00 GAA and .909 save percentage in 19 appearances with the Sharks before the trade. He has a plus-3.9 goals saved above expected this campaign, per Moneypuck, so he’s been solid when factoring out the Sharks’ defense. Speaking of that defense, San Jose ranks 29th in xGA/60 (3.36) while Colorado is 13th (2.95). That should lead to Blackwood putting up meaningfully better numbers post-trade, and naturally, his winning percentage should improve too now that he has the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and defenseman Cale Makar providing him with goal support.

Having Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen naturally helps too. That duo wasn’t available at the start of the campaign, but they’re in the lineup now, providing some critical secondary scoring. Nichushkin and Lehkonen have each supplied four goals through six games in December. They won’t match MacKinnon and Rantanen in terms of points, but they’re fantastic for Colorado to have on the top six.

Edmonton Oilers (Mon vs. FLA, Thu vs. BOS, Sat vs. SJS, Sun vs. OTT)

The Oilers will be at home next week, hosting the Panthers on Monday, the Bruins on Thursday, the Sharks on Saturday and the Senators on Sunday. Edmonton has been fantastic recently, winning seven of its past eight games to improve to 17-10-2 on the campaign, so the Oilers will be looking to stay hot.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have unsurprisingly been a major factor in Edmonton’s recent success, providing 15 points (five goals) and 14 points (six), respectively, over their past eight games. Vasily Podkolzin (three goals, five points) and Connor Brown (one goal, five points) have been less expected contributors. Podkolzin has benefited from playing in a top-six role, but he still might lose that job once Viktor Arvidsson (undisclosed) is available. It would be a little surprising if Arvidsson, who has been out since Nov. 12, returned next week, but he has resumed skating and might attend a team practice soon.

As for Brown, while there was some hope of him playing alongside his old OHL teammate, McDavid, when he first joined the Oilers, that’s never panned out. The 30-year-old has been playing strictly in a bottom-six capacity and has received almost no power-play time this campaign, so while his four goals and 10 points through 29 appearances aren’t bad under the circumstances, Brown isn’t in a position to increase that scoring pace.

In goal, Stuart Skinner has stabilized after a rough start to the campaign, posting a 4-1-0 record, 1.41 GAA and .947 save percentage across his past five starts. He had a similar track in 2023-24 with a rocky opening to the season followed by mostly strong play beyond that, so perhaps history is repeating.

Florida Panthers (Mon @ EDM, Wed @ MIN, Fri vs. STL, Sun vs. TBL)

Florida will open next week with road games against Edmonton and Minnesota on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. The Panthers will then host the Blues on Friday and play in Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Matthew Tkachuk was one of the hottest forwards in the league from Nov. 19-Dec. 7, supplying six goals and 19 points across 10 appearances. However, he’s been held off the scoresheet in each of his last two outings, so while he’s a fantastic forward regardless, his latest hot streak might be over.

To be fair, though, Florida as a squad has managed just one goal (excluding the shootout) over its past two games, so it’s not just Tkachuk who has cooled off. That’s just a mini-slump on the Panthers’ end, but Anton Lundell has been cold for longer. He hasn’t recorded a point across his past five appearances, leaving him at eight goals and 19 points through 29 outings in 2024-25.

Most of Lundell’s success came from an amazing start to the campaign in which he recorded six goals and 14 points in 14 appearances, but he was also averaging 18:49 of ice time. By contrast, he’s dropped to two goals and five points over his past 15 games and his average during that stretch is 15:39. The 23-year-old is capable, but when everyone is healthy, he typically serves on the third line, which limits his fantasy impact. If injuries result in him moving up to the top six, then he could be a great short-term play.

Los Angeles Kings (Tue @ PIT, Thu @ PHI, Sat @ NSH, Sun @ WSH)

The Kings have a full schedule with four games on the docket next week and just one of their upcoming opponents (the Capitals) occupy a playoff spot. The downside is the Kings will be on the road for the entire week. They’ll play in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, Philadelphia on Thursday, Nashville on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.

When looking at the Kings’ campaign thus far, the player who has most impressed me is Anze Kopitar with his eight goals and 32 points through 29 appearances. We’re currently in a time where several forwards have excelled well past their prime -- Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby being the most obvious examples -- so Kopitar’s longevity has flown under the radar somewhat. The fact that he remains an effective playmaker at the age of 37, is still impressive, though. It wouldn’t be surprising at this point to see him reach the 70-point mark for the 10th time in his career.

Alex Laferriere was nearing his sixth birthday when Kopitar made his NHL debut, but the two are in their second campaign together and the sophomore Laferriere has been coming into his own with 12 goals and 22 points in 29 contests this season. Laferriere has continued to be a steady contributor lately, collecting three goals and seven points across his past seven games.

However, I am a little worried about Laferriere’s 20.0 shooting percentage. That seems rather high and his PDO of 1033 is a touch up there too, which suggests he has been getting a bit of puck luck. I don’t expect a crash, but his goal-scoring pace will likely decline somewhat.

Adrian Kempe’s shooting percentage of 17.9 is on the higher side too. Kempe did have a 16.4 shooting percentage in 2022-23 when he finished with 41 markers, so he’s not too far above his career high, but it’s still a notable step above his career average of 12.7. Like Laferriere, I don’t expect Kempe to collapse, but a small decline might be in his future. Kempe does have 14 goals and 28 points in 29 outings overall.

New Jersey Devils (Tue @ STL, Thu @ CBJ, Sat vs. PIT)

The Devils are set to play just three games next week, but the competition is favorable, so I decided to highlight them. New Jersey will play in St. Louis on Tuesday and Columbus on Thursday before hosting the Penguins on Saturday.

The Devils have a commanding 19-10-3 record compared to their mediocre 38-39-5 finish to 2023-24 and the difference is almost entirely at their end of the ice. New Jersey is allowing just 2.66 goals per game, which is a huge drop from 3.43 last year. But how much of that is thanks to Jacob Markstrom?

The Devils had an xGA/60 of 3.26 last campaign, which suggests that they were a poor defensive team independent of their goaltending. Kaapo Kahkonen and Jake Allen largely held their own with a plus-1.4 and minus-1.9 goals saved above expected, but when the defense is that bad, merely being okay leads to bad results. The Devils also employed Nico Daws, Akira Schmid and Vitek Vanecek, who did even worse by that metric.

Markstrom was brought in over the summer to stabilize the situation, but much like Kahkonen before him, he’s been acceptable, but not brilliant, posting a plus-1.5 goals saved above expected through 22 appearances. The difference is the Devils have burdened their goaltenders far less in 2024-25, as evidenced by their 2.70 xGA/60.

So, while Markstrom certainly hasn’t been a problem, he hasn’t necessarily been their savior. Either way, fantasy managers have can reap the benefits of Markstrom playing in a favorable situation, which has resulted in him posting a 14-6-2 record, 2.41 GAA and .906 save percentage. He’s also hot going into this week with a 3-0-1 record, 1.48 GAA and .933 save percentage over his past four outings.

Allen has been dealing with an upper-body injury, and the Devils’ schedule is spread out enough to allow Markstrom to start in all three games next week. Isaac Poulter will be with New Jersey for the duration of Allen’s injury, but Poulter is unlikely to get a start. The 23-year-old Poulter has struggled in the AHL this campaign with a 3.32 GAA and an .871 save percentage across nine appearances.

Poulter not getting playing time isn’t surprising, but it was a bit eyebrow-raising to see Tomas Tatar out of the lineup Thursday. Perhaps it shouldn’t be, though. Tatar has averaged just 10:41 of ice time this campaign, which is a far cry from even two seasons ago when he logged 15:07 per game. The Devils are a deep team, and it seems like there’s not much of a role for him. I’d be interested to see what would happen if the Devils traded the 34-year-old. He’s on a one-year, $1.8 million contract, so he’s movable, but New Jersey might ultimately decide that they’d rather have him on board as an insurance policy against injuries. If Tatar does find himself in a middle-six role, he might do enough offensively to have some fantasy relevance. As it is, he’s a non-factor in most leagues.

Seattle Kraken (Tue vs. OTT, Thu @ CHI, Sat @ VGK, Sun @ COL)

Seattle will host Ottawa on Tuesday, but the Kraken will spend the remainder of next week on the road, playing in Chicago on Thursday, Vegas on Saturday and Colorado on Sunday.

The Kraken have largely held their own this campaign without being anything special, posting a 15-14-2 record. Joey Daccord has been a major highlight with a 12-6-2 record, 2.42 GAA and .916 save percentage through 20 appearances. We just talked about how Markstrom is benefiting from plenty of support, but Daccord has had to do much more to keep the Kraken afloat. They are tied for 24th in xGA/60 (3.14) and are tied for 16th in goals per game (3.03). For his part, Daccord’s plus-9.2 in goals saved above expected ranks seventh in the league.

Seattle’s offense is mediocre in part because it lacks star power. Through Friday’s action, 48 players have scored at least 12 goals and none of them play for the Kraken. Seattle’s points leader, Jared McCann, (11 goals, 15 assists), is also outside of the top 47 in that category. The Kraken have nine players who have recorded at least five goals, which is respectable -- the league average is 7.7 per team -- but without a star leading the charge, the offense is still just okay.

Maybe Shane Wright will eventually fill that role. Taken with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, Wright had just a goal and an assist through his first 18 appearances in 2024-25. Then he spent three games as a healthy scratch from Nov. 17-23, and that seemed to do him plenty of good. He’s managed six goals and 11 points across 10 outings since that stint in the press box.

The 22-year-old Matty Beniers has promise too. He had 24 goals and 57 points as a rookie in 2022-23 but took a step back in 2023-24 with 15 goals and 37 points. The 2024-25 campaign has been a mixed bag -- he has four goals and 17 points in 31 games -- but he’s done well recently with seven assists across his past seven appearances.

Vancouver Canucks (Mon @ COL, Wed @ UTA, Thu @ VGK, Say vs. OTT)

The Canucks will split next week between two games at home (Monday vs. the Avalanche and Saturday vs. the Senators) and two road tilts (Wednesday in Utah and Thursday in Vegas). The Canucks are 15-8-5, which is pretty good, but in a tough Pacific Division, that’s only good for fourth place.

Going into the campaign, it wasn’t clear if Vancouver would be able to hold its own without starting goaltender Thatcher Demko, who was dealing with a knee injury. Fortunately for the Canucks, Kevin Lankinen stepped up and now has a 14-4-3 record, 2.52 GAA and .912 save percentage across 21 outings.

Lankinen became the clear starter during Demko’s absence, but his role is less clear after Demko made his return. The 29-year-old Demko made his season debut Tuesday, though he left something to be desired, stopping 21 of 25 shots en route to a 4-3 overtime loss to St. Louis. That was followed by Lankinen posting a 27-save shutout Thursday.

We shouldn’t judge Demko based on only one start, but it might take him some time to shake off the rust. With Vancouver’s upcoming schedule relatively full, the Canucks will probably split the workload between Lankinen and Demko, which will give the latter more time to get eased in. If Lankinen keeps playing like he has been, and Demko eventually finds his rhythm, then Vancouver would have a great 1A/1B situation on its hands.

The Canucks also got J.T. Miller back, who was absent for 10 games due to personal reasons. He looked good in his return Thursday, providing two assists, including one on the power play. Now that he’s back, Pius Suter is likely to serve in a reduced capacity. During Miller’s 10-game absence, Suter had five goals and nine points while averaging 18:14 of ice time, but Suter dropped to 15:15 on Thursday and wasn’t used at all with the man advantage for the first time since Nov. 14. If you’ve been enjoying Suter’s recent success, now might be the time to explore your alternatives.

NHL GLOBAL SERIES: New Jersey Devils vs. Buffalo Sabres – Casey and the Devils Stole the Show in Prague Opener – Impressions from Prague

Matej Deraj — Tue, 08 Oct 2024 18:16:35 +0000

The year Czech hockey has had so far couldn´t have been much better. First, the Central European country hosted a World Championship in May and won gold. Five months later, the NHL came to Prague. Fans from all of Europe, and not just Europe, gathered in the Czech capital to watch the New Jersey Devils and Buffalo Sabres to kick off the 2024-25 season.

A lot of fun activities were prepared for fans in the nearby Harfa mall, such as precision shooting, throwing hats on sticks, cornhole, or a PlayStation tournament. The participants collected stamps and at the end, they got a poster based on their preference. Based on the majority of black or red jerseys, you could imagine why there was a lot more Sabres posters still available. You could see a lot of Hughes brothers, Hischiers, Meiers or Tatars and Nemecs walking downtown Prague. On the other hand, Sabres stars Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson and JJ Peterka had a lot of supporters. Apart from them, there was a huge variety of jerseys at the O2 Arena, including Juraj Slafkovský (Montreal), Penguins, Stars, even Kraken jerseys and the sweaters of various Czech, Slovak and German teams.

Regarding the two teams who actually played, the Devils took two wins (4-1, 3-1) to get the first four points of the year. Not just on the ice, Jersey had the lead in the stands as well, despite the Czecho-Slovak Sabres Fan Club members doing their best. With Czech-born Patrik Eliáš being one of the biggest Devils legends and forward Ondřej Palát on the roster, they are definitely one of the most popular teams in the country. Slovak fans lined up in big numbers as well to watch the upcoming star defenseman Šimon Nemec. His countryman, forward Tomáš Tatar, was the most popular man on the ice, given the applause he received. But it wasn´t just about watching a few players. The fans were ecstatic to see the highest level of hockey and everything they love about the NHL first-hand.

There was no one in the building happier than Seamus Casey, though. The Devils young defensemen made his NHL debut in Prague and scored his first goal in the second game. A quick pull-back and a great shot that beat Devon Levi to tie the game 1-1.

“I don´t think you can score a nicer goal as your first. My wasn´t,” said Devils captain Nico Hischier. “My neither,” added Tomáš Tatar, laughing.

“This whole week has just been a blast. The guys have been great, welcoming me in. We talked about it before, it´s your normal first experience in the NHL, but it´s been super fun. To get two wins, it´s an awesome start,” said Casey.

The 20-year-old defenseman stole the show in Prague with his confident and fearless play. The Devils 2^nd rounder from the 2022 NHL Draft was paired with another youngster Šimon Nemec. “I talked about this with a few people, the way coach communicated things with us made things pretty seamless. I thought our transition through camp was awesome, although it took a while to get used to a new style. This weekend, I thought we played super simple at times, but with a lot of pace. When our skill came out, we were able to bury a few. Just simple hockey within our structure.”

The Devils head coach Sheldon Keefe was pleased with his young undersized (5´10”) defenseman. He had a lot of trust in Casey and put him on the second powerplay unit instead of Nemec. Casey took the opportunity and was rewarded with a goal. “You need to be a competitor to play in this league, especially on defence and at his size. He has the qualities; he has shown that. He´s gotten better each day. The opportunity has presented itself here and he has taken advantage of it.”

The young American made his case to stay up clear, just like Johnathan Kovacevic, who scored in the first game. The Devils were missing Luke Hughes and Brett Pesce, both injured, but their absence wasn´t that noticeable. “I think everybody played well on the backend this weekend. You get contributions from everyone. The message from the Day 1 with our team is we never want to be defeated by circumstance in terms of our injuries. We don´t want those things to defeat our group mentally. You should be able to overcome it, or put up a fight at least.”

Two Czech and two Slovak players suited up for the games in Prague, however, only Slovaks played in both. The Devils forward Ondřej Palát starred in the most commercials before the game and talked to fans in Czech, but he only appeared in the first match. He missed the second one due to personal reasons, related to birth of his second child. “Last night, the time our game ended, there was a situation worth monitoring back in New Jersey. It was determined he was going to have to return home and be with his family,” explained Keefe.

The Sabres brought two Czech-born players to Prague, but Jiří Kulich was the only one to skate in a game. He played the second match, after Zach Benson and Nicolas Aubé-Kubel were both sidelined with injuries. “I was very happy to find out I was going to play tonight; I immediately texted my friends and family. It was beautiful, I´m glad I could be part of it. On the other hand, I was not satisfied with my performance. The second goal we conceded was on me,” said 20-year-old Kulich after the match.

The Sabres couldn´t be happy with the score nor their performance. The Devils, on the other hand, were all smiles. Tomáš Tatar summed it up for the whole group. “Obviously, the results make it so much better. We had a great time here in Prague, you know, the whole city is very beautiful. We had a teambuilding, we glued together. We wanted to focus on a game, both yesterday and today, and I think we did. Coming out of Prague with four points with the time we could spend together as a team is so valuable. We had a great time.”

NHL: Training Camp Updates

Scott Cullen — Tue, 01 Oct 2024 19:02:07 +0000

Toronto Maple Leafs Winger William Nylander (88) (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire)

As the NHL season approaches, training camps are in full swing and preseason action is underway. That means that changes are already taking place with injuries and opportunities changing every day.

Doughty suffers broken ankle

Los Angeles Kings defenceman Drew Doughty suffered a broken ankle that leaves him out month-to-month. That is a huge loss for the Kings but, it means new opportunities because someone will have to fill the void that is created by Doughty’s injury. Brandt Clarke was already poised to play a regular role on the Kings blueline but could step into a role on the Kings’ first power play unit. Clarke has eight points (2 G, 6 A) in 25 career games and half of those points have come with the man advantage. If not Clarke, Jordan Spence could step up, too. He had 24 points (2 G, 22 A) in 71 games last season, with six points on the power play. Clarke has the better pedigree. He was selected eighth overall in the 2021 Draft and produced 46 points (10 G, 36 A) in 50 games in the AHL last season.

Appendicitis knocks out Gibson

Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson underwent emergency surgery for an appendectomy and that will keep him out for 3-6 weeks. If he only missed three weeks, that will not cost him too many starts, but if it’s closer to the other end of the spectrum, there will be more games for Lukas Dostal. While Dostal appeared in 44 games for the Ducks last season, he managed just 13 wins and had a .902 save percentage, which is not enough to believe that he is going to have significant fantasy value this season.

Boqvist on Panthers’ top power play

With Brandon Montour signing in Seattle, it appears that Panthers defenceman Adam Boqvist is getting a look as the quarterback on Florida’s No. 1 power play unit. He has never played more than 52 games in an NHL season and has 85 points (23 G. 62 A) in 209 games, with 29 of those points coming on the power play. However, there are 57 defencemen that have played at least 300 five-on-four minutes across the past three seasons and Boqvist ranks 50th with 3.32 points per 60 minutes and 55th with 4.88 on-ice GF/60. To his slight credit, he ranks 41st with 6.84 xGF/60 in those situations. If Boqvist ultimately can’t handle the role, Aaron Ekblad could be lurking as a possible quarterback on PP1.

Hanifin getting first unit power play time in Vegas

On a team that already boasts Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore, it appears that Noah Hanifin is getting an opportunity to skate with the top power play in Vegas. Hanifin recorded 47 points last season, with 13 points on the power play, including five of his 12 points with Vegas after he was acquired from Calgary. While Hanifin ranked fifth with 11.87 shots per 60 minutes during five-on-four play across the past three seasons, he ranked 29th with 4.35 points per 60 minutes. He also ranked 50th with 5.80 on-ice goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. This is a position of relative strength for the Golden Knights, so if Hanifin isn’t getting the job done on the first power play, they have two more options who have experienced some success in that role.

Cooley and Guenther could offer big fantasy value

The Utah Hockey Club has some promise heading into the season, not the least of which is related to a couple of young forwards who finished hot last season and could be poised for big things in 2024-2025. Right winger Dylan Guenther just signed an eight-year contract extension for more than $57 million, even though he has played just 78 NHL games, but the ninth pick in the 2021 Draft has an awe-inspiring shot and finished last season with 17 points (9 G, 8 A) with 53 shots on goal in his last 16 games. Pair Guenther with Logan Cooley, the third pick in the 2022 Draft, who finished fifth in Calder Trophy voting last season and he had 14 points (9 G, 5 A) in his last 16 games. Two young players finishing with that kind of production offers temptation for what they might be able to accomplish this season. The answer could be: more than you think.

Luke Hughes recovering from shoulder injury

Devils defenceman Luke Hughes, who finished third in Norris Trophy voting last season, could miss the first month of the regular season due to a shoulder injury suffered in offseason training. Hughes’ injury opens the door for Simon Nemec, another highly drafted defenceman going into his second NHL season, to take on a bigger role including time on the Devils’ second power play unit. Nemec had 19 points (3 G, 16 A) in 60 games as a rookie, but could certainly improve on that if he can secure regular time with the man advantage.

Tatar getting a good opportunity in New Jersey

The last time that Tomas Tatar was skating for the New Jersey Devils, he produced 20 goals and 48 points during the 2022-2023 season. Last season, between Colorado and Seattle, Tatar managed just 24 points (9 G, 15 A) in 70 games. He played 12:27 per game, his lowest average since 2012-2013. But right now it looks like Tatar has a chance to skate on the Devils’ second line, with Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer, which would put Tatar much more in line to produce 40-plus points again.

Willy Styles to center

Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander is getting a training camp look at centre ice, which does shuffle up the forward lines, sending John Tavares to the third line. Nylander at center allows the Leafs to play Max Domi and Calle Jarnkrok on his wings, while Nick Robertson and Bobby McMann can skate on Tavares’ wings, giving Toronto better scoring depth. Of course, Max Pacioretty would seem like a logical fit in a middle six role following his tryout, so Jarnkrok or McMann would seem like candidates to move down the depth chart, unless Robertson is moved out.

Michkov a Calder favorite?

Philadelphia Flyers rookie right winger Matvei Michkov is either the favorite or co-favorite to win the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year in the NHL. The seventh pick in the 2023 Draft, Michkov had 41 points (19 G, 22 A) in 47 KHL games last season. He is looking at the opportunity to start the season on the Flyers’ second line while receiving first unit power play time. He has four points (1 G, 3 A) through his first two preseason games, which has done nothing to turn down the hype machine but maybe it’s deserved.

Beauviller getting a chance in Pittsburgh

After managing a career-low five goals and 17 points for Vancouver and Nashville last season, Anthony Beauvillier is the epitome of a buy-low performer. He is also looking at the potential opportunity to skate on Pittsburgh’s top line alongside Sidney Crosby. It can be a revolving door on Crosby’s wing, but the opportunity to skate with such an elite centre would elevate Beauvillier’s scoring potential, at least making him relevant for fantasy owners. He has never scored more than 40 points in a season, but that career high happened one year before his career low performance.

Montour ahead of Dunn for PP1 in Seattle

The Seattle Kraken appear to be giving free agent acquisition Brandon Montour a shot to quarterback the top power play unit. Across the previous three seasons, among the 57 defencemen to play at least 200 minutes Montour ranked 20th with 4.69 points per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. Dunn ranked 33rd with 4.26 points per 60, which is not a dramatic different. When it comes to on-ice goals for per 60 minutes, Montour ranked tenth, with 10.02, while Dunn ranked 47th with 6.16. Since they were operating on different teams, it seems that these numbers would be heavily influenced by the talent around them.

Faulk on PP1 for St. Louis

With Torey Krug likely to miss the season as he deals with a bad ankle, Justin Faulk is getting the opportunity to run the Blues’ top power play unit. Faulk has experience in the role, with 134 of his 426 career points coming with the man advantage. If Faulk can’t guide the unit successfully, Scott Perunovich, Colton Parayko and Philip Broberg could all be viable candidates, too.

Demko remains out for Vancouver

With an uncertain timeline for the return to action of goaltender Thatcher Demko, the Vancouver Canucks have signed Kevin Lankinen, to pair with Artrus Silovs in the crease while they wait. Lankinen has been a quality backup, posting a .912 save percentage in 43 games with Nashville over the past two seasons, but he could be required to handle a larger percentage of the action, at least while Demko is sidelined. Silovs has flashed potential but has started a total of 19 NHL games, nine during the regular season and 10 in the playoffs. He has a .898 save percentage in those games, so the 23-year-old netminder is still a work in progress as he tries to establish himself as a full-time NHLer.

Tarasov getting his shot in Columbus?

With Elvis Merzlikins coming off a terrible season, and big changes in the Blue Jackets organization, it could be time for 25-year-old goaltender Daniil Tarasov to get the starter’s job in Columbus. Tarasov has a .905 save percentage in 45 career games, which is enough to at least consider him in a tandem with Merzlikins, but it would not take much for Tarasov to become the first option for the rebuilding Blue Jackets.

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – NEW JERSEY DEVILS – Team Preview

Wed, 18 Sep 2024 16:00:56 +0000

_{NEWARK, NJ - FEBRUARY 08: New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes (86) warms up before a game between the Calgary Flames and New Jersey Devils on February 08, 2024 at Prudential Center in the Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)}

A season that started with high expectations went down the tubes rather quickly and the Devils finished the season with 81 points (38-39-5). Travis Green replaced Lindy Ruff behind the bench for the last 21 games and New Jersey’s record got worse. The Devils ranked 10th in Corsi (51.7%) and 12th in expected goals percentage (51.6%), which is better than average. It’s not where the Devils were in previous seasons, but still better than average. New Jersey’s power play ranked 11th with 8.22 goals per 60 minutes while the penalty kill ranked 10th with 6.94 goals against per 60 minutes. Considering these rankings, how did the Devils not make the playoffs? Their goaltenders combined to give them a .886 save percentage, ranking 30th. That can undo a lot of good happening elsewhere on the ice. The Devils also had some major injuries to key players. Dougie Hamilton played 20 games and Jack Hughes missed 20, but played hurt late in the season, too.

What’s Changed? Former Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe takes over behind the bench for the Devils and he takes over a team that was busy trying to solve its problems. Intent on fixing their goaltending issues, the Devils acquired Jacob Markstrom from Calgary, then stabilized their defence by signing Brett Pesce from Carolina and Brenden Dillon from Winnipeg. The Devils couldn’t wait any longer on right winger Alexander Holtz, so they traded him along with goaltender Akira Schmid to Vegas for hard-hitting winger Paul Cotter. They dealt defenceman John Marino to Utah and Kevin Bahl to Calgary in the Markstrom deal after acquiring defenceman Johnathan Kovacevic in a trade with Montreal. The Devils also dipped into their past by signing wingers Stefan Noesen and Tomas Tatar as free agents.

What would success look like? There is more than enough talent on hand for the Devils to make the playoffs, but it would not be unreasonable for expectations to be higher than merely making the postseason. That would be one step of success, but the Devils are built to be a Stanley Cup contender so that would be the real success. On an individual level, it would be ideal if young defencemen Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec continue to develop because they should be cornerstone pieces for this franchise for a long time.

What could go wrong? If Markstrom does not fix what ails the Devils in net, then the season could go sideways again. Certainly, major injuries to players like Jack Hughes or Dougie Hamilton – who have both missed some time in recent seasons – would be problems, but this team, as constructed, should be deep enough to handle an injury or two, even to key players. The underlying numbers were still solid last season so it would be a real surprise if the Devils made all these moves and still ended up missing the playoffs again.

Top Breakout Candidate: This is not really a team with openings for young players to get quality ice time, but defenceman Simon Nemec is an exception. The second pick in the 2022 Draft, Nemec contributed 19 points in 60 games as a rookie. He did put up 14 goals and 42 points in 78 AHL games, so he can make a difference offensively, and there may come a day when he is put into a more offensive role on the Devils blueline. Right now, it appears that Hamilton and Luke Hughes are the first two options to quarterback the Devils power play, but Nemec should not be discounted and even if his point totals might not explode this season, he is likely to take a step forward in his development anyway, playing with a steady veteran like Brenden Dillon.

Forwards

Jack Hughes

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	41	61	102	1.32

There is no denying the level of skill with which Hughes plays. He is averaging 1.21 points per game across the past three seasons, which ranks 12th in the league. The issue that does hang over Hughes, however, is that he has had trouble staying healthy. He missed 20 games last season and was playing through a shoulder injury that ultimately required surgery. He is not exactly the biggest and strongest out on the ice, so it is reasonable to have concern about his durability until he shows that it is not an issue. One other issue for Hughes is that he has yet to prove he can have success in the face-off circle. Injuries may play a part, but he won just 37.2 percent of his draws last season and that was a career-high rate! When he is on the ice, He is a sublime talent, one of the best puck-handlers in the entire league. He plays with audacious creativity which makes him a crowd-pleasing performer and Hughes is adept at creating chances for himself as well as for his linemates. Hughes’ ability to attack in transition plays a big part in his ability to generate shots and he put up a career-high 4.42 shots per game in 2023-2024. Hughes played a career-high 20:58 per game last season, a minute higher than the previous season, so he is starting to hit his peak in terms of usage. For the 2024-2025 season, it is reasonable to count on something like 35 goals and 85 points from Hughes, but that comes with the expectation that he will miss some games. If Hughes stays healthy, a 100-point season is within his grasp.

Jesper Bratt

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	32	48	80	0.98

Bratt has climbed to join the ranks of the best offensive wingers in the game and scored a career-high 83 points last season even while the Devils struggled as a team. He roared out of the gate to start the season, much like he did the year before, tallying 18 points in his first nine games. Bratt generated a career-high 3.02 shots on goal per game while playing a career-high 19:18 per game. He earned that ice time with his production. In the past three seasons, Bratt has compiled 229 points, which ranks 20th among wingers in that time. He has breakaway speed and attacks in transition frequently. The 26-year-old winger uses his wide base to shield the puck very effectively, which allows him to buy time in order to make a more dangerous play. When he is playing with confidence, he is frequently putting the defense on its heels because of his speed. Bratt’s increased shot output makes him a greater threat offensively because he has a quick release and if the defence gives him time, he can fire the puck to beat the goaltender from distance. Playing with Hischier and Palat, Bratt should be in position for another productive campaign. Considering his recent production, he could be expected to contribute 30 goals and 75-80 points.

Nico Hischier

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	29	52	81	0.99

The Devils’ captain has established his credentials as a premier two-way centre but has added to his defensive reputation with more consistent offensive production. In the past two seasons, he has tallied 58 goals and 147 points in 152 games. While Hughes struggles at the face-off dot, Hischier has continued to improve in that aspect of the game and won a career-best 56.6% of his draws last season. A heady player who can modify his contributions based on what is needed, Hischier has not only generated more points in the past two seasons, but that has been supported by underlying numbers, with higher on-ice expected goal rates and yet he has achieved that through different paths. In 2022-2023, his shot rate spiked to 3.16 per game, nearly an extra shot per game compared to the previous season. Then, last season, it dropped to 2.56 shots per game, even though the Devils generated even more shots with Hischier on the ice. His most common linemates are Jesper Bratt and Ondrej Palat, which is a quality trio to be sure. Among lines that played at least 200 five-on-five minutes last season, they ranked second with 4.66 expected goals per 60 minutes and fourth with an expected goals percentage of 63.8. Considering that efficiency and looking ahead to the 2024-2025 season, it is reasonable to expect 25-30 goals and 70-plus points from Hischier.

Timo Meier

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	39	34	73	0.97

After mediocre production when he first joined the Devils in the 2022-2023 season, Meier still landed a big contract, but he struggled for quite a while last season, and it looked like the contract could be a disaster in the making. However, even as the Devils’ season went off the rails, Meier started to put it together late in the season and he scored 18 goals and 30 points in his last 26 games. That followed 10 goals and 22 points in his first 43 games. The three-time 30-goal scorer finished with 28 goals last season, but his overall impact is not like it was in his last couple of seasons in San Jose when he was one of the premier shot generators in the entire league. Among forwards that have played at least 2000 five-on-five minutes across the past three seasons, Bratt ranks seventh with 1.11 individual expected goals per 60 minutes. This should make Meier one of the primary projects of new head coach Sheldon Keefe, because if he can get Meier back on top of his game, that will give the Devils more options when trying to set their scoring lines. With even a little movement in the right direction, Meier could deliver 30 goals and 60 points.

Dawson Mercer

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	28	30	58	0.71

When Mercer scored 11 goals during an 11-game flurry in the 2022-2023 season, it may have set the bar too high to be sustainable and he saw his 56-point season plummet to a 33-point season in 2023-2024. Mercer did record his second straight 20-goal season but since he has yet to average two shots on goal per game in any of his first three NHL seasons, that should be a primary objective if he is going to have goal-scoring production that lasts. To Mercer’s credit, he has scored 40 even-strength goals across the past two seasons, which ranks fourth on the team behind Hughes, Bratt, and Hischier. Mercer is not shy about getting to the front of the net, and that’s where the goals are scored. What could work in his favour for a bounce-back season is that his most frequent centre last season was Erik Haula and, based on the Devils’ personnel, it looks like Mercer should have a chance to skate more consistently with Jack Hughes, which naturally raises offensive expectations. A 22-year-old (mostly) winger, Mercer has not missed a game in his first three NHL seasons and should be able to produce 25 goals and 50 points in 2024-2025, but he’ll have to shoot the puck to do it!

Ondrej Palat

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	12	27	39	0.56

Even if the veteran winger only managed 31 points for the Devils last season, Palat continues to be an excellent two-way forward who continues to push play in the right direction when he is on the ice. He thrived playing alongside Bratt and Hischier, which should be who he lines up with this season. One interesting, yet under-utilized, aspect of Palat’s game is that he was a highly effective penalty killer but ranked 10th among Devils forwards in four-on-five ice time per game despite having the lowest rates of shot attempts against and expected goals against per 60 minutes. Given all the team success he experienced in Tampa Bay, Palat has playoff experience that sets his apart from his Devils teammates. He has accrued 150 playoff games in his career, with four separate playoff runs of more than 20 games. Beyond the experience and strong defensive play that Palat brings to the table, it is apparent that he is losing effectiveness offensively. He last surpassed 50 points in a season in 2016-2017 but has managed 54 points in 120 games since joining the Devils. Given that recent track record, and the fact that he is now 33-years old, it is probably more reasonable to expect 30-35 points from Palat in 2024-2025.

Erik Haula

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	15	20	35	0.44

Moving to New Jersey has brought an element of stability to Haula’s career. He has played 156 games for the Devils over the past two seasons, the first time in his career that he logged that many games for the same team across back-to-back seasons. That’s in large part because he has been moving between teams so frequently. More importantly, Haula was excellent in a two-way role for the Devils last season, anchoring the third line and delivering positive results at both ends of the rink. The Devils controlled 55.5 percent of expected goals when Haula was on the ice during five-on-five play. He has won 54.5 percent of his faceoffs since joining the Devils and tends to play with a bit of an edge. He recorded a career-high 54 penalty minutes last season. Considering what the Devils have down the middle of the ice, with Hughes and Hischier at the top of the depth chart, getting such reliable performance from Haula is what is needed for this team to be a contender. The 33-year-old pivot should be expected to continue what he has been doing for the Devils in the past couple of seasons. That means that he could produce 15 goals and 35 points this season.

Stefan Noesen

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	15	21	36	0.45

A late bloomer who set career highs with 14 goals and 37 points for the Carolina Hurricanes last season, Noesen signed with the Devils as a free agent. He previously played with the Devils from 2016-2017 through the 2018-2019 season. The 31-year-old winger has played 366 games in his NHL career, and it might have taken awhile for him to establish that he is a legit NHL player, because he is not necessarily the most graceful skater, but he thrived in Carolina. With Noesen on the ice across the past two seasons, the Hurricanes controlled 61.8 percent of expected goals with Carolina outscoring the opposition 71-37 with Noesen on the ice. In addition to those positive results, Noesen plays with a physical edge and goes hard to the net, which helps to make him a useful contributor in a depth role because he is hard to play against and has been an efficient scorer even when he receives little ice time. In New Jersey, there is a fair chance that Noesen will have an opportunity to play in the top nine, which means more ice time and, perhaps, more opportunities for him to score. If Noesen keeps playing a physical game and contributes 35 points, the Devils ought to be happy with their offseason addition to the lineup.

Tomas Tatar

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	13	19	32	0.41

The veteran winger returns to New Jersey after splitting last season between Seattle and Colorado, finishing with 24 points in 70 games, his lowest offensive output since 2012-2013, when he had seven points in 18 games. It makes sense for the Devils to bring Tatar back on a bargain deal because the 33-year-old had a strong season in 2022-2023 when he was last with New Jersey. Tatar is a finesse player who has had seven seasons with at least 20 goals. While he does not play an overly physical game, he is at least a competent defensive player, sometimes even better than that. He offers the Devils another secondary scoring option and some veteran savvy. If Tatar can help the Devils get back into the playoffs, then he had better figure out how to show up for the postseason. In 52 career playoff games, Tatar has just seven goals and 13 points, so while that might be a point of concern, the priority for New Jersey is to get back into the playoffs and having a skilled winger who can move around the lineup ought to help with that pursuit. At this stage of his career, 33-year-old Tatar could contribute 12-15 goals and 30 points.

Paul Cotter

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
77	9	18	27	0.35

Looking for a bit of a roster shakeup, the Devils traded right winger Alexander Holtz and goaltender Akira Schmid to the Vegas Golden Knights to acquire a 2025 third-round pick along with Cotter, a hard-driving fourth-line winger who brings a consistent physical presence to the lineup. Cotter, 24, produced seven goals and 25 points for the Golden Knights last season and ranked second on the team with 233 hits. No one on the Devils was within 50 hits of Cotter’s total. He has worked his way through the ranks as a fourth-round pick in 2018 and he has had to battle to make his way into the league. Now, Cotter has some specific appeal related to the style of game that he plays. The Devils appear intent on adding some bite to their forward depth chart and he is front and centre in that approach. He is likely to start the season on a line with Curtis Lazar and Nathan Bastian, a group that should not recoil at the thought of physical contact. While Cotter has a modest 22 goals and 45 points in 138 career games, he has decent hands and can chip in a little offensively. A reasonable expectation would be to match last season’s total of 25 points, with potential for more if he somehow earns a role higher on the depth chart.

DEFENCE

Dougie Hamilton

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
70	18	40	58	0.83

A torn pectoral muscle limited Hamilton to just 20 games in the 2023-2024 season, but he still produced five goals and 16 points, with half of those points coming on the power play. A smooth skater standing 6-foot-6, Hamilton can swallow up so much space on the ice, either jumping into the rush, or getting back to handle an attacking opponent. His defensive play has dipped in recent seasons, but it helps to generate even more chances offensively. While it occurred in a relatively small sample of games, Hamilton had a Corsi percentage of 59.7 last season, the highest mark of his career. It was the fourth season of his career in which his expected goal percentage was better than 57 percent, so this is a player who typically has a significant positive impact. One of the things that makes Hamilton such a consistent threat is his ability to put pucks on net. He has averaged more than three shots on goal per game for seven straight seasons. With the expectation that Hamilton will be ready to go at the start of the 2024-2025 season, he should continue to be one of the most productive defencemen in the league. Health will obviously be a factor, but he should be able to produce 15 goals and somewhere between 45-50 points. While Hamilton went for a career-high 74 points in 2022-2023, that was the only season of his career in which he finished with more than 50 points. He certainly has that capability, but it has not been typical for him to pass that threshold.

Luke Hughes

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	10	41	51	0.62

The fourth pick in the 2021 Draft, Hughes endured some growing pains as a rookie and still accrued 47 points, tying Minnesota’s Brock Faber for second in rookie scoring behind Chicago Blackhawks centre Connor Bedard. With Hamilton injured, Hughes took over on the Devils’ top power play unit and finished with 25 power play points. The puck was moving the right way with Hughes on the ice, too, with the Devils getting 54.5 percent of shot attempts and 52.5 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play when Hughes was on the ice. Coming from a family that includes his brothers, Devils centre Jack Hughes and Vancouver Canucks defenceman Quinn Hughes, it should come as no surprise that Luke Hughes is a strong skater. He is also bigger than his brothers. On the other hand, Jack and Quinn are both incredibly dynamic players with the puck and it would be too soon to suggest that Luke is on that level. At the same time, Luke was 20-years old last season, so there is time for him to mature and grow into a role as a legitimate top pair defenceman. With the Devils improving their supporting cast on the blueline, bringing in Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon as free agents, their young defenceman should have much better support in 2024-2025. Hamilton returning to action, and quarterbacking the top power play, should mean fewer points for Hughes, but he could very well have a better all-around impact because of the cast of characters around him. It would be fair to expect Hughes to put up 35-40 points in his second NHL season.

Simon Nemec

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
75	5	23	28	0.37

Drafted second overall in 2022, Nemec started last season in the American Hockey League, where he produced eight points in 13 games for Utica before getting called up to New Jersey. He showed plenty of potential, with 19 points in 60 games. Nemec didn’t get the luxury of a big role on the power play, chipping in just two points with the man advantage. He has shown that he is not afraid to join the attack, and he is an excellent skater who plays an intelligent game. He makes an efficient first pass that tends to help get the puck moving in the right direction and can carry the puck through the neutral zone to challenge opposing defenders. Nemec has the upside to become a top pair defenceman and that makes him a valuable commodity heading into the 2024-2025 season. Much like Hughes, Nemec is sure to benefit from New Jersey’s offseason upgrades on the blueline. That stability should play well for the Devils’ young defencemen and Nemec has been making such rapid progress that he could take a big leap forward this season. What does that mean for his production? It would be reasonable to expect 25-30 points out of Nemec in a full season. While he could put up more with a bigger power play role, it seems that Hamilton and Hughes will be ahead of Nemec on the power play depth chart.

GOAL

Jacob Markstrom

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
53	30	17	6	3	0.908	2.65

Jake Allen

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
28	16	9	3	1	0.902	2.93

The 2023-24 New Jersey Devils weren't the league's worst team, but they did boast arguably the league's worst three-player goaltending tandem - so they spent their offseason cleaning house, albeit in a somewhat risky way. Out for next season are Vitek Vanecek (dealt mid-season last year to the San Jose Sharks) and Akira Schmid, who was dealt to Vegas at the end of June. In their places, the Devils held on to struggling mid-season acquisition Jake Allen and sent a first-round pick to Calgary for struggling Jacob Markström - who will start the year as one of the league's oldest tandems and both coming off historically poor years in 2023. They'll hope to hold down the fort while Nico Daws is given a chance to continue developing at the AHL level, although some might raise their eyebrows at the idea of New Jersey spending yet another year working with other teams' aging reclamation projects.

Markström is, on paper, the best chance for success for New Jersey. While he struggled as much as the rest of Calgary did last season, leaving surprising holes along the ice and lagging on recoveries from his knees during rebound attempts, his overall tracking and decision-making still looked strong enough to lend credence to the possibility that he's still got some game left in the tank. Allen is a less-promising entity, struggling with depth management during his tenure in Montreal and seeming to get rattled by bad goals in a way veteran goaltenders shouldn't, but it's hard to deny that New Jersey should be a lower-pressure environment than Montreal for him to hopefully get his game back on track. Ultimately, though, this tandem likely doesn't have a ton of staying power in Jersey - so don't be surprised if Daws is back up in Newark before the year is up.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: NEW YORK RANGERS VS. NEW JERSEY DEVILS – The team that controls the rush will win the series

Jesse Marshall — Sat, 15 Apr 2023 16:07:57 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - MARCH 30: New York Rangers defenseman K'Andre Miller (79) skates with the puck during the National Hockey League game between the New York Rangers and the New Jersey Devils on March 30, 2023 at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

For the first time since 2012, the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils will re-ignite their post-season animosities. That Eastern Conference Finals matchup seems like a lifetime ago, it's close to one. In this dance, it's the Rangers with the edge in experience as they look to forge their way further than they made it last season when the Tampa Bay Lightning knocked them off in six games, one step away from the Stanley Cup Final. On the other hand, the Devils are led by a group of core players that will be making their post-season debut. While the playoffs are certainly a different beast, you can't discount the dominance that some of the younger Devil forwards exhibited throughout the course of the year.

Let's jump into a few of the finer points of this matchup before making a series prediction.

Offensive Breakdown

Both of these teams can effectively attack off of the rush, but the Devils have made it a core tenet of what they do offensively. In fact, in the data Corey Sznajder has tracked in his All Three Zones project, no forward in the league has taken more shots off of the rush than the Devils' Jack Hughes, leading the way behind the philosophy boasted by the entire forward core. That, combined with the off-the-rush efficacy of the Devils top line featuring Tomas Tatar, Nico Hischier, and Dawson Mercer, means the Devils take a significantly larger portion of their shots off of zone entry rushes than the Rangers do. This enables them to move the puck laterally in dangerous fashions that get talented goaltenders moving side-to-side and the puck moving into high-danger scoring chances. The Devils breakout is so often bolstered by their mobile defense that can get the puck up-ice quickly and join in the rush as a bit of a fourth forward. Defending those breaks are difficult and lead to a good amount of entries with possession per the data Corey is tracking.

The Rangers do most of their work off of the rush as well, but it hasn't born out the same kind of fruit as the Devils have experienced. Most notably, the Rangers have struggled to consistently find the net-front area in the offensive zone. As a result of those struggles, they grade out 22nd in the league with regards to their ability to generate quality scoring chances. The good news for the Rangers is the Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad combination has been wonderful regardless of who the third wheel is, and the third wheel just so happens to be Patrick Kane in this instance. The aforementioned duo of forwards spend upwards of 60-percent of their time in the offensive zone. Keep an eye on the Rangers stretch pass. With a quick group of forwards, they're able to break off of puck battles quickly to gain an edge on the opponent and sprint behind them for a deep bomb through the neutral zone that sends them off to the races.

The biggest mismatch here is the Devils 2nd line of newly acquired Timo Meier, Hughes, and Jesper Bratt versus the Rangers 2nd line of Artemi Panarin, Vince Trocheck, and Vladimir Tarasenko.

Defensive Breakdown - A Series Full of Puck Movers

These teams are a lot more even defensively than they are offensively, but I am still giving the advantage to the Devils here based on the quality of their depth.

On the Rangers side, Adam Fox is so good, teams are avoiding his side of the ice entirely when attempting to enter the offensive zone. In the games tracked via the All Three Zones project, Fox has been supremely successful at controlling zone entries from opponents in the limited opportunities he does see at even-strength. That means a great deal of testing has befallen his parter, Ryan Lindgren, and Lindgren has not found the same amount of success his partner has at preventing zone entries. The Fox and Lindgren pairing is the only pairing for the Rangers with more than 200 minutes at even-strength that has been able to keep its head above the 50% mark on expected-goal generation.

The Devils have a bit more of an even contribution with regards to quelling zone entries across the board. Kevin Bahl, John Marino, and Jonas Siegenthaler lead the way with regards to putting a stop to the opponents offensive attacks before they get started. The Devils overload approach to playing defense and their overall team speed give them a much better set of results in defending the net front area than the Rangers can boast. It's not by a significant margin, but it's one worth mentioning in this preview.

I mentioned that offensively both of these teams like to attack using the rush and, unfortunately, that isn't an area where the Rangers have been able to keep up with the Devils this year. I look for the Devils forwards to find space on zone entries and force some difficult situations as a result. The Rangers best bet will be to try and elongate their offensive zone possessions and keep the rush chances to a minimum.

Special Teams

I mentioned team speed as an important element of the Devils game and it drives their power-kill style of penalty-killing. That aggressive, up-tempo approach to annoying the opposing power-play quarterback into coughing the puck up as given them an 82.6-precent success rate this season, good for fourth in the NHL.That fourth-best ranking also extends to their ability to prevent shot-attempts and scoring chances as well. The Rangers trail that at 81.2-percent and play a much softer penalty-kill strategy than the Devils do, thusly allowing more in the way of zone entries and quality scoring chances. Keep an eye on Jacob Trouba for the Rangers penalty-kill, he is an underrated presence in preventing puck carriers the opportunity to enter the zone with possession of the puck.

On the power-play side, the Rangers boast the advantage at a 24.1-percent success rate. On the man-advantage, it's all about the work of Zibanejad. His cross-ice presence and roaming ability for the Rangers power-play has netted him 39 total power-play points this season as a complement to the great work Fox is doing carrying the mail. The Devils have only converted 21.9% and have scored just 49 power-play goals all season. That's the 12th lowest total in the league. They lack the ability to get to the front of the net that the Rangers boast, generating a great bit of their shot-attempts from the exterior of the offensive zone.

Goaltending

This is the area where the Rangers boast a distinct advantage, but is it enough to overcome all of the other advantages we've said the Devils hold in this series? The Devils haven't gotten poor goaltending from Vitek Vanecek this season. He turned in an 82 goals-against performance on 92.6 expected goals-against this season. It was a performance slightly better than expected. Igor Shesterkin allowed 102 goals, but it was on an 126.4 expected goals-against performance. He was significantly above the line with his results.

We also can't ignore the fact that Shesterkin is battle tested in the playoffs. This proves to be a huge advantage for the Rangers as he has the experience and ability to pull off another strong run this season, starting with this very series.

Prediction

I'm saying this will go seven games right out of the gate. Despite the advantages the Devils hold at even-strength, the Rangers are opportunistic, have a great power-play, and a distinct advantage in goaltending. That being said, there's a speed element here at work for the Devils in how they attack that I can't move beyond. I am taking the young, inexperienced Devils team to surprise the Rangers and create a number of systemic issues for them between the blue lines. Devils win this series in an arduous but entertaining seven games.

Data for this piece was obtained by:

Corey Sznajder - All Three Zones

NHL:CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Slow Starters Rounding into Form, Rookies Stepping into Spotlight

Scott Cullen — Sat, 19 Nov 2022 14:03:38 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, slow starters that are rounding back into form, including Ryan O’Reilly, Logan Couture, and Tomas Tatar, plus rookies stepping into the spotlight – Jake Sanderson, Jusso Parssinen, Jonatan Berggren and more!

OTTAWA, ON - OCTOBER 22: Ottawa Senators Defenceman Jake Sanderson (85) before a face-off during third period National Hockey League action between the Arizona Coyotes and Ottawa Senators on October 22, 2022, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

#1 St. Louis Blues center Ryan O’Reilly is going to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, so if the Blues are not in the playoff picture, he could be a prime trade candidate. After a miserable start to the season, during which he scored one goal and zero assists through 10 games, O’Reilly started to find his game again. Skating on a line with Brandon Saad and Josh Leivo, O’Reilly has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 13 shots on goal in the past six games. While I don’t normally tout a player of O’Reilly’s caliber, his slow start suddenly made him available in plenty of leagues, so he now offers value on the fantasy waiver wire.

#2 After managing 35 points (17 G, 18 A) in 79 games over the past two seasons, Pittsburgh Penguins left winger Jason Zucker came into this season healthy and ready to regain a scoring role. The 30-year-old winger has put up 14 points (4 G, 10 A) and 39 shots on goal in 15 games, earning a role alongside Evgeni Malkin on Pittsburgh’s second line. A five-time 20-goal scorer, a healthy Zucker offers secondary scoring that the Penguins need if they are going to be a playoff team.

#3 San Jose Sharks captain Logan Couture started slowly this season, with four points (2 G, 2 A) and 12 shots on goal in nine games, but he has picked up his production since then. In the past 10 games, Couture has contributed 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 25 shots on goal. He now has Alexander Barabanov and Matt Nieto skating on his wings, which might limit Couture’s offensive potential, but he is also getting first unit power play time for the Sharks.

#4 An injury to Thomas Chabot has accelerated the development path for Ottawa Senators rookie defenseman Jake Sanderson. The fifth pick in the 2020 Draft, Sanderson has eight assists and 23 shots on goal in the past 12 games. In two games since Chabot was injured, Sanderson is averaging more than 25 minutes of ice time per game and has moved to Ottawa’s top power play unit.

#5 A seventh-round pick of the Nashville Predators in 2019, Juuso Parssinen has developed quickly. In the past two seasons, Parssinen produced 74 points (17 G, 57 A) in 96 regular season games, adding 20 points (5 G, 15 A) in 31 playoff games for TPS in Finland. He appeared in the AHL playoffs last season and started this season with nine points (2 G, 7 A) in 10 games for the Milwaukee Admirals to earn his promotion to the NHL. Parssinen is not interested in returning to the AHL, it seems, as the 21-year-old center has three goals and one assist in his first three NHL games. He is not getting eased into the NHL, either, skating on Nashville’s top line, with Filip Forsberg and Mikael Granlund on the wings, as well as landing a spot on the Predators’ top power play unit.

#6 Drafted early in the second round of the 2018 Draft by the Detroit Red Wings, Jonatan Berggren had been steadily progressing towards the NHL. He put up 45 points (12 G, 33 A) in 49 games for Skelleftea in Sweden during the 2020-2021 season and had 64 points (21 G, 43 A) as an AHL rookie last season. After starting this season with seven points (4 G, 3 A) in seven games, Berggren earned his call to the National Hockey League, and he has contributed three points (1 G, 2 A) in his first four games. Berggren does not have a huge role with the Wings, yet, but he has recently moved up the depth chart to skate with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, potentially a good opportunity for a rookie winger to put up some points.

#7 With Patrik Laine out of the Columbus Blue Jackets lineup due to a sprained ankle, Emil Bemstrom has stepped into Laine’s role on the first line and top power play unit. A fourth-round pick in 2017, Bemstrom had 19 goals and 17 assists in 136 career NHL games prior to this season. He has been renowned for his shot but does not have the all-around game to earn him a consistent place in the lineup. When injuries hit the Blue Jackets, though, Bemstrom’s 14 points (7 G, 7 A) in 10 AHL games had him ready for a call-up and, at least in the short term, he is in a position to score. He is apparently dealing with an injury, that left him questionable for Thursday’s win against Montreal, but opportunity is knocking for Bemstrom if he can stay in the lineup.

#8 Both Nikolaj Ehlers and Mason Appleton are injured for the Winnipeg Jets, so veteran Sam Gagner has moved up the depth chart to join Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele on the top line. Gagner has mostly been playing a depth role but has a couple of assists while averaging more than 18 minutes of ice time per game in the past two contests.

#9 Moving to Seattle in the expansion draft, defenseman Vince Dunn has taken on a bigger role in his second season with the Kraken. He is playing more than 23 minutes per game and has picked up his offensive pace with eight points (2 G, 6 A) and 19 shots on goal in the past 11 games. Dunn tied a career high with 35 points last season, but he is capable of scoring more and with the Kraken improving as a team, there ought to be more chances for Dunn to boost his point totals.

#10 New Jersey Devils winger Tomas Tatar opened the season with zero points in five games. He has put up 11 points (3 G, 8 A) and 25 shots on goal in 12 games since. With Ondrej Palat injured, Tatar has more security in New Jersey’s top six and, right now, has a good thing going alongside Nico Hischier and rookie Fabian Zetterlund.

#11 Calgary Flames defenseman Noah Hanifin busted out last season, scoring a career high 48 points (10 G, 38 A). He followed that up by not recording a point through his first eight games this season, but that has turned around. Not only does Hanifin have five points (1 G, 4 A) in the past seven games, but he has put 24 shots on goal and defensemen that can put more than three shots on goal per game are rare commodities. Hanifin is one of 13 defensemen averaging at least three shots on goal per game this season.

#12 Buffalo Sabres goaltender Eric Comrie is set to miss multiple weeks with a lower-body injury, prompting the Sabres to recall 23-year-old goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen from Rochester of the American Hockey League. Luukkonen has a .895 save percentage in 69 career AHL games, which does not exactly jump off the page, but he also has a .913 save percentage in 13 NHL appearances. With Comrie out, the Sabres can split time between veteran Craig Anderson and Luukkonen, a decent audition to see how close he is to being ready for the NHL. Comrie had a .887 save percentage in 11 games for the Sabres, not an ideal beginning to his opportunity to be a starting goaltender.

#13 Minnesota Wild netminder Marc-Andre Fleury on the injured list due to an upper-body injury, backup Filip Gustavsson is looking at more consistent playing time for the Wild. The 24-year-old Gustavsson, who was acquired in a trade for Cam Talbot before the start of the season, has a .901 save percentage in six games this season, .904 in 33 career NHL games.

#14 The Philadelphia Flyers are dealing with a number of injuries up front and that has helped create an opportunity for 23-year-old right winger Owen Tippett to play a prominent role. Tippett is not afraid to put pucks on net and in his past six games, he has produced five points (2 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal, while averaging more than 18 minutes of ice time per game. A highly touted scorer coming out of junior, it never really clicked for Tippett in Florida, but the rebuilding Flyers can offer a better situation for his development and Tippett is making the most of it.

#15 Adam Ruzicka did not play in October, a healthy scratch for the Calgary Flames, and then played just 5:33 in his first game of the season. An injury to Jonathan Huberdeau opened up an opportunity for Ruzicka to play and he has made the most of it, taking the left-wing spot on the top line for the Flames. In the past five games, Ruzicka has chipped in five points (2 G, 3 A) and nine shots on goal. He is always at risk of falling out of the lineup but keep an eye on him. If he continues to produce, Ruzicka might just force his way into being a regular in the Flames lineup.

#16 Injuries have decimated the blueline for the Columbus Blue Jackets and that prompted the team to promote 24-year-old Marcus Bjork. A 6-foot-3 right shot defenseman Bjork had five points (2 G, 3 A) in 11 AHL games when he got the call. He has two points (1 G, 1 A) and five shots on goal in his first three NHL games, and he is now quarterbacking Columbus’ top power play unit.

#17 One of the stats to track when trying to predict future goal-scoring rates is how many shot attempts a player is getting. The forward leaders in five-on-five shot attempts per 60 minutes, minimum 100 minutes, are Tage Thompson (24.7), Timo Meier (23.9), David Pastrnak (23.2), Auston Matthews (21.5), and the recently injured Evander Kane (20.8). Just outside the Top 5? Denis Malgin (20.8) and Nazem Kadri (20.8). There might have been some sentiment coming into the season that Thompson was going to be a flop after his breakout season in 2021-2022, but if he is generating this many shots, the goals are going to follow. Thompson has 11 goals and 53 shots on goal in the past 10 games.

#18 When it comes to defensemen, the leaders in five-on-five shot attempts per 60 minutes are Brent Burns (21.1), Michael Stone (20.8), John Carlson (19.9), Dougie Hamilton (19.7), and Roman Josi (17.5). Stone is known for his heavy shot from the point, but he does not have quite the same offensive pedigree as the other leaders in this category.

#19 As for the defensemen that are shooting most on the power play, here are the defense leaders in shot attempts per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, minimum of 20 minutes at five-on-four: Aaron Ekblad (38.5), Miro Heiskanen (35.8), Noah Dobson (34.7), Jacob Trouba (32.0), and John Klingberg (31.9).

The defensemen that are most reluctant to shoot on the power play, or just not getting the opportunities, minimum 20 minutes of five-on-four play: Chris Wideman (7.0), Juuso Valimaki (7.5), Rasmus Sandin (8.0), Owen Power (8.3), and Mikhail Sergachev (8.4).

#20 The players that have exceeded expected goals by the widest margin early in the season (and are likely due to run into some goal-scoring regression): Erik Karlsson (+8.05), Nick Suzuki (+7.39), Connor McDavid (7.33), Bo Horvat (6.26), Mark Scheifele (5.64), and J.T. Miller (5.61).

On other end of the spectrum, these are the players with the largest deficit of goals relative to expected goals (and are probably due for more pucks to go in the net): Mathew Barzal (-5.49), Matthew Tkachuk (-5.26), Erik Haula (-4.81), Oliver Bjorkstrand (-4.41), Sam Reinhart (-3.73), and Stefan Noesen (-3.72).

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Dach, Mikheyev and Hagel Taking Advantage of New Opportunities, Major Injuries in Edmonton and Colorado, Surprising Goaltenders offering Value

Scott Cullen — Fri, 11 Nov 2022 18:36:21 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, players like Kirby Dach, Ilya Mikheyev, and Brandon Hagel taking advantage of new opportunities, major injuries in Edmonton and Colorado, plus some surprising goaltenders that could offer value right now.

MONTREAL, QC - NOVEMBER 05: Montreal Canadiens center Kirby Dach (77) plays the puck during the Las Vegas Golden Knights versus the Montreal Canadiens game on November 05, 2022, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The Chicago Blackhawks sure seemed to move on quickly from Kirby Dach, the 21-year-old center who was the third pick in the 2019 Draft, when he was traded to the Montreal Canadiens at the 2022 Draft. Dach did not have instant success in Montreal but seems to have found a great spot on the right wing of the Habs’ top line alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. In the past six games, Dach has delivered nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 12 shots on goal, and is starting to show the talent that made him such a high pick in the first place.

#2 Ilya Mikheyev busted out for the Toronto Maple Leafs last season, scoring a career-high 21 goals in just 53 games. He signed in Vancouver as a free agent and has had an instant impact skating on a line with Elias Pettersson and fellow Russian winger Andrei Kuzmenko. In his past seven games, Mikheyev has produced seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 19 shots on goal. For the season, he is playing 17:20 per game, up more than two minutes per game from his ice time in Toronto last season.

#3 The Tampa Bay Lightning brought in winger Brandon Hagel last season to provide forward depth and he was effective in that role. With the Lightning forward group thinned out by injuries and offseason departures, there is now an opportunity for Hagel to contribute more and he is taking advantage of that. He has produced 11 points (5 G, 6 A) and 17 shots on goal in his past eight games, landing on the top line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. Anyone getting a chance to play with those two is going to be worth a look and Hagel’s production gives him a chance to stick there for a while.

#4 The Edmonton Oilers are going to have to make do without left winger Evander Kane for the next 3-4 months after he had his wrist accidentally stepped on by Tampa Bay Lightning winger Pat Maroon. Kane is such an important player for Edmonton and there is not likely going to be a trade to make up for his absence. That means that internal options are the way forward. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are important as the proven complementary pieces in the top six, but Jesse Puljujarvi is getting another crack higher on the depth chart and rookie Dylan Holloway is looking at the best opportunity of his young career. Holloway, the 14^th pick in the 2020 Draft, played a career-high 15:15 in Thursday’s loss at Carolina.

#5 The Colorado Avalanche have been without left winger Valeri Nichushkin since October 25, but it has now been announced that he will miss a month of action after having ankle surgery. Nichushkin was off to an incredible start, with 12 points (7 G, 5 A) in seven games before getting hurt. With Nichushkin and captain Gabriel Landeskog out, Colorado is trying a second line Alex Newhook, Evan Rodrigues, and Martin Kaut. While Newhook and Kaut might have longer range potential, Rodrigues is the one with the most fantasy value right now. He has five points (3 G, 2 A) during a four-game point streak, and he is getting first unit power play reps for the Avalanche.

#6 For years, Dallas Stars left winger Jamie Benn was a premier fantasy hockey performer, scoring a bunch and adding big hit totals to give him elite value at a relatively shallow position. Benn is no longer the same kind of dynamic presence, but he can still turn up the heat from time to time. He had a hat trick last Saturday against Edmonton and has 11 points (4 G, 7 A) in 13 games this season, even though his 14:06 average time on ice is the lowest of his career.

#7 New Jersey Devils winger Miles Wood missed nearly all of last season, limited to just three games due to hip surgery. He has returned to action in fine form this season. Although he is skating on the Devils’ fourth line, Wood has been productive, with eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 25 shots on goal in the past six games. Wood has never scored more than 32 points in a season, so keep expectations in check, but his increasing offensive contributions could make him useful in deeper leagues.

#8 Seattle Kraken center Yanni Gourde did not record a point in the first six games of the season, but he has pulled out of that slump to produce eight points (2 G, 6 A) in the past seven games. Gourde brings energy to an effective line with Jared McCann and Brandon Tanev.

#9 Gourde is not the only Seattle center offering good value. Fourth-line center Morgan Geekie is starting to contribute offensively in a way that he never has before in his NHL career. In his past eight games, Geekie has eight points (4 G, 4 A) despite averaging just 10:08 of ice time per game. That lack of playing time makes Geekie an unlikely add in most fantasy leagues, but in deep leagues, it is worth keeping an eye on anyone who puts up a point per game over an eight-game stretch. Maybe that prompts a bigger role for Geekie and if more ice time comes his way, that could change the calculation on his fantasy value.

#10 Although the goals have not come so easily this season, Los Angeles Kings right winger Trevor Moore continues to provide secondary offense. Moore broke through for a career high 17 goals and 48 points last season but has just two goals on 52 shots on goal through 16 games. Moore has added nine assists, but his shot rate is especially notable and suggests that he could be a good buy-low option because he is not likely to keep scoring on less than four percent of his shots on goal.

#11 Arizona Coyotes left winger Matias Maccelli is still considered a rookie after he played 23 games last season. He has continued to develop, even on a bad Coyotes squad, and while he does have eight points (1 G, 7 A) in his past nine games, Maccelli also has just six shots on goal in that time, so it is difficult to expect sustained production.

#12 With Philipp Grubauer out of the lineup, the Seattle Kraken have turned to Martin Jones in goal and the veteran netminder has responded to the challenge, posting a .940 save percentage in his past six starts. Jones has been a below-average goaltender for each of the past four seasons, so modest expectations are the way to go, but if he can provide league average goaltending for the Kraken, the wins will follow.

#13 Florida Panthers goaltender Spencer Knight was supposed to challenge Sergei Bobrovsky for the starting job last season, but it never materialized as Knight finished the season with a .908 save percentage. It was fine, but it’s fair to say the Panthers had higher hopes. After a 40-save shutout against Carolina this week, Knight has a .925 save percentage in six starts this season and that kind of performance is how the backup goaltender challenges for a No. 1 job, especially when Sergei Bobrovsky, the starter, has a .897 save percentage in eight starts.

#14 It is not easy to accrue goaltending value as the starting goaltender for the Arizona Coyotes, but Karel Vejmelka is giving it a shot. In his past six appearances, Vejmelka has four wins and a .944 save percentage, which will play just fine. Wins are going to be a challenge for the Coyotes all season, and Vejmelka is not going to keep stopping 94% of the shots that he faces, but if he is better than league average, he could have fantasy appeal.

#15 New Jersey Devils left winger Ondrej Palat is out 8-10 weeks with a groin injury and the long-term nature of that absence could give a winger like Tomas Tatar the opportunity he needs to maximize his production. Tatar has excellent underlying numbers, with the Devils controlling more than 63% of 5-on-5 score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts with Tatar on the ice. He has chipped in nine points (2 G, 7 A) in the past nine games and a consistent spot alongside Nico Hischier is a good place for Tatar to be.

#16 When Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov suffered a knee injury against Boston last Saturday, it left Toronto in a dire situation in goal. Since Matt Murray was already injured, Erik Kallgren moved into the starting role and the Maple Leafs signed Keith Petruzzelli to be his backup. Petruzzelli, 23, has played 23 games in the ECHL and 11 games in the American Hockey League since finishing four years at Quinnipiac University. While Murray has returned to practice and could be ready for game action again soon, Kallgren has a .890 save percentage in six appearances for the Maple Leafs this season, a .889 save percentage in 20 career NHL games. We knew goaltending would be a major question mark for the Maple Leafs this season, but that question is getting asked loudly very early in the season.

#17 Not only are the Colorado Avalanche dealing with injuries up front, but the defending Stanley Cup champs are also missing Sam Girard and Bowen Byram on the blueline. As a result, Jacob MacDonald and Kurtis MacDermid were in the lineup for Thursday’s win against Nashville. Although MacDonald tends not to play a lot of minutes in the NHL, he has been very productive in the AHL and if Girard and Byram miss significant time, MacDonald might have enough opportunity to be a meaningful contributor to the Avalanche.

#18 Florida Panthers defenseman Radko Gudas remains a rare fantasy hockey contributor. While he has a respectable four points (1 G, 3 A) in 14 games this season, any scoring he does is really a bonus. Gudas has 26 blocked shots and 46 hits, making him one of four defensemen to have at least 20 blocked shots and 40 hits. The others are Jacob Trouba, Connor Clifton, and Jeff Petry. Trouba and Gudas are the only ones in that quartet averaging more than 2.0 shots on goal per game. With the Panthers a little desperate on defense, especially while Aaron Ekblad has been out of the lineup, Gudas is playing a career high 20:52 per game this season.

#19 There is a race between two lines for the most productive during five-on-five play this season. Vegas’ trio of Chandler Stephenson, Jack Eichel, and Mark Stone has scored 6.42 goals per 60 minutes. That comes in just ahead of the Dallas Stars line of Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, and Jason Robertson, at 6.31 goals per 60 minutes. Among lines that have played at least 100 five-on-five minutes together, they are far ahead of No. 3 – the Islanders trio of Anders Lee, Brock Nelson and Anthony Beauvillier, which has scored 4.26 goals per 60 minutes. While some of these players are stars that are not going to be available, Stephenson, Lee, and Nelson are productive players that can be found on the waiver wire in about half of leagues.

#20 The Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers, and Dallas Stars have the top three power plays in terms of goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play. None of those are particularly surprising, but No. 4 is the Arizona Coyotes. That’s a stunner. Matias Maccelli leads the Coyotes with six power play points, one ahead of Clayton Keller, and Nick Ritchie, as well as defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and J.J. Moser.

The Avalanche are humming along at a clip of 15.74 goals per 60 minutes. By way of comparison, the top rate last season belonged to the Toronto Maple Leafs, at 10.23 goals per 60 minutes during five-on-four play, so the Avs are about 50% better than the top rate in the league last season.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Players Making Noise in Training Camp

Scott Cullen — Fri, 07 Oct 2022 14:29:37 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

Before the puck drops on the regular season, a look at some players that have made noise in training camp and preseason and might be able to contribute this season. In most cases, these players would have more appeal in deep leagues but, at the very least, it is worth keeping an eye on how they develop during the season.

WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 26: Panthers center Anton Lundell (15) skates during the Florida Panthers versus Washington Capitals National Hockey League game on November 26, 2021 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

#1. Florida Panthers center Anton Lundell had a strong rookie season, putting up 44 points in 65 games, and it would be natural to expect continued improvement from the 21-year-old pivot. There is the possibility, though, that he moves up the depth chart and is not centering the third line but possibly centering the second line or even skating on the wing alongside Aleksander Barkov on Florida’s top line. That creates the possibility of Lundell’s production spiking in his second season if the circumstances play out in his favor.

#2. The ninth pick in the 2020 Draft by the Minnesota Wild, center Marco Rossi had his 2020-2021 season undone by COVID-19 then put up 53 points in 63 AHL games last season. With the Wild needing players on entry level deals to contribute, the opportunity is there for Rossi, and he is making the most of it. Not only does he have eight points in four preseason games, but he has recently been given a shot to play on the top line between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello.

#3. After missing most of the 2021-2022 season, Ottawa Senators center Shane Pinto is healthy and looking like he could be a contributor to an improved Sens attack this season. Pinto has eight points in 17 career games and looks like he will start the season as Ottawa’s third-line center, but he will also get power play time and has the skill to move up in the lineup, if needed.

#4. Right winger Luke Kunin contributed 13 goals and 22 points for the Nashville Predators last season, adding 223 hits in 82 games. Those hit totals moved Kunin into the realm of fantasy relevance but, after a trade to the Sharks, it looks like he could have even more appeal to start the 2022-2023 season. Kunin is starting the season skating on the right wing of San Jose’s top line, alongside Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl, a legitimate opportunity to increase his offensive output.

#5. Drafted 14^th overall in 2020 by the Edmonton Oilers, Dylan Holloway is doing his best to force the Oilers to keep him on the roster. The University of Wisconsin product had 22 points in 33 AHL games last season as a rookie pro and appeared in one playoff game for Edmonton. He has put up four goals and six points in four preseason games in his bid to make Edmonton’s opening night lineup.

#6. Buffalo Sabres center Dylan Cozens has produced 51 points in 120 games through his first two seasons, but developed his game last season, with better possession results leading to improved scoring. The next step for Cozens is to have his shooting percentage pick up. It was 7.7% last season, on his way to 13 goals, but if the 21-year-old continues to improve and that shooting percentage improves, 20 goals should be within his grasp.

#7. The Boston Bruins were already facing a potentially difficult start to the season with injuries to Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy, and Matt Grzelcyk, but Taylor Hall has joined them in the infirmary with an upper-body injury. That will open up more of an opportunity for Pavel Zacha, who was acquired from New Jersey in the offseason. Zacha scored a career-high 36 points in 70 games for the Devils last season but is now looking at a chance to start the season playing on a line with David Krejci and David Pastrnak, two gifted offensive players, and that raises Zacha’s offensive ceiling.

#8. The sixth pick in the 2018 Draft, Filip Zadina has been mostly underwhelming to this point in his career, managing 61 points in 160 games for the Detroit Red Wings. He has scored on just 7.6% of his shots, which is quite low for a scoring winger. With Derek Lalonde taking over behind the Red Wings bench, Zadina gets something of a fresh start and with Detroit upgrading their roster in the offseason, there is a better chance for Zadina to contribute secondary offense.

#9. Highly touted defenseman Nils Lundkvist did not have the kind of North American debut that he had hoped for last season, producing four points in 25 games for the New York Rangers and 15 points in 34 games for Hartford of the American Hockey League. Traded to the Dallas Stars, Lundkvist has a new opportunity to make his mark in the NHL and he has put 13 shots on goal in four preseason contests. While he is not worthy of widespread fantasy interest now, it is worth tracking Lundkvist’s progress with his new team.

#10. Landing on a rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks squad, Max Domi is seeking a new opportunity after he had 39 points in 72 games last season, playing a career-low 13:02 per game in a season that started with the Columbus Blue Jackets and ended with the Carolina Hurricanes. With Chicago, Domi has the chance to skate on a line with Patrick Kane and possibly Andreas Athanasiou. While that line has its flaws, they may be able to generate some offense and Domi should see an uptick in ice time because there just are not that many good options available in Chicago.

#11. After scoring a career-high 19 goals and 43 points for Pittsburgh last season, Evan Rodrigues could not secure a free agent contract until he signed with Colorado in September. That could turn out to be a nice fit for Rodrigues and the Avalanche because with Gabriel Landeskog out at the start of the season, Rodrigues could open the season in Colorado’s top six. Rodrigues played a career-high 15:50 per game last season and his shot rate jumped to 2.96 shots per game. If he has a regular role in Colorado, there will be opportunities for him to score.

#12. Veteran winger Tomas Tatar had just 30 points in 76 games for the New Jersey Devils last season, tying his career-low, set in just 50 games the season before. His 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage last season was 6.8%, the lowest of his career, so Tatar should be able to count on some positive regression in that sense. He is a six-time 20-goal scorer who has scored more than 55 points three times in his career. With the Devils’ forward group improving, Tatar could either get bumped down the depth chart or he could thrive with more talent around him.

#13. He is 39 years old and will not be quarterbacking the first power play unit in Toronto, but defenseman Mark Giordano had 12 points in 20 games for the Maple Leafs after he was acquired from Seattle before the trade deadline last season. He also had 41 blocked shots and 29 hits in those 20 games, so he can still be a considerable factor for a Maple Leafs team that should still be one of the best in the league this season.

#14. The Tampa Bay Lightning can move their forwards around the lineup, but it is worth tracking Vladislav Namestnikov, the 29-year-old who is returning to where his NHL career began. Namestnikov has recently been getting a look on Tampa Bay’s top line, with Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov and while Namestnikov has only had one season in his career with more than 35 points, anyone getting the chance to play with Stamkos and Kucherov is deserving of fantasy consideration.

#15. Acquired by the Vancouver Canucks in the trade that sent Jonathan Dahlen to San Jose, right winger Linus Karlsson produced 26 goals and 46 points in 52 games for Skelleftea of the Swedish Hockey League last season. The 22-year-old may not be NHL ready yet, but he has finishing skill and if the Canucks have forward openings – Brock Boeser and Ilya Mikheyev are currently dealing with injuries – maybe Karlsson gets a longer look in Vancouver.

#16. Just last week, I was writing about the potential of Nashville Predators right winger Philip Tomasino, the second year forward who has the potential to move into a scoring role with the Preds. That might take some time, however, since he is going to be a healthy scratch to start the season, with Kiefer Sherwood earning a spot in the opening game lineup ahead of Tomasino. Sherwood is a 27-year-old who has scored 18 points and recorded 155 hits in 87 career NHL games, but he has the right-wing job on Nashville’s second line to start the season.

#17. The Florida Panthers signed goaltender Spencer Knight to a three-year, $13.5 million contract extension, an indication that the Panthers see Knight as their starting goaltender of the future, but he could become the goaltender of the present, too. The 13^th pick in the 2019 Draft, Knight has a .909 save percentage in 36 NHL games, so he is just getting started, but if Sergei Bobrovsky falters, the Panthers should have little hesitation about giving Knight a bigger share of the starts this season.

#18. A potential backup goaltender on what will likely be a bad team is hardly the stuff of fantasy championships but have an eye on Samuel Ersson of the Philadelphia Flyers. A fifth-round pick in 2018, Ersson has impressed in training camp and preseason action. He had a .904 save percentage in 78 SHL games before getting into a handful of AHL games last season. His development might be better suited to the AHL, where he can play a lot, but it is possible that Ersson wins the job backing up Carter Hart in Philadelphia.

#19. A first-round pick by the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2020, Yegor Chinakhov produced a modest 14 points in 62 games as a rookie last season. The Blue Jackets have some talent on the wings, which could make it difficult for Chinakhov to move into a scoring role, but he does have five goals in five preseason games, production that could help him secure a better spot on the depth chart for his sophomore season.

#20. Looking for a chance to resurrect his career, Sam Steel is getting that opportunity with the Minnesota Wild. The 24-year-old, who was a first-round pick in 2016, had 65 points in 197 games with the Anaheim Ducks, but they did not give him a qualifying offer following last season, casting him into the free agent waters. Steel has five points in four preseason games and has recently been getting a chance to skate on a line with Fredrick Gaudreau and Matt Boldy, which is a solid opportunity for a player who scored a ton in junior but has yet to take that junior production and see it translate to the NHL.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – NEW JERSEY DEVILS – NHL Player Profiles

Scott Cullen – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 20:15:27 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - MARCH 15: New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes (86) looks up ice during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on March 15, 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Jack Hughes

A rising star, the first pick in the 2019 Draft, has been rapidly improving and busted out for 56 points in 49 games last season. Hughes had started generating chances but could not finish early in his career and as his shot improved, the point production followed. Extraordinary confidence is part of what makes Hughes special and is what should drive him to greater heights, but he also needs to get more durable as he matures. A dislocated shoulder and a knee injury contributed to Hughes missing 33 games last season, but the 21-year-old came out of the Christmas break and produced 48 points in his last 36 games. If the Devils are going to be a competitive team, some of that will come from riding Hughes’ development to stardom. A point-per-game over a full season is an entirely reasonable expectation and Hughes if one of the rare players who has 100-point upside.

Jesper Bratt

A 24-year-old who has provided phenomenal value as a sixth-round pick, busting out offensively last season for 73 points in 76 games. Bratt is a consistent offensive threat, and his results last season were outstanding – his 2.90 points per 60 minutes ranked 17^th and his 1.22 goals per 60 minutes ranked 39^th. This production does not come by accident. Bratt has excellent anticipation and is strong on the puck in the offensive zone, equally adept at setting up plays or burying the puck in the back of the net. Bratt’s shooting percentage has varied significantly (13.0%, 8.8.%, 15.8%, 6.9%, 13.2% in his five NHL seasons) so that will play a role in setting expectations for his 2022-2023 season. The trend would be for it to fall this season so 60 points would be a reasonable low-end but a point per game over a full season is not out of range, either.

Nico Hischier

The Devils’ 23-year-old captain broke through for a career high 60 points last season, but he is known as much for his strong two-way play and that reliability makes him a strong complement to Hughes down the middle of the ice. Hischier could be more aggressive as a shooter, but his overall skill and defensive conscience makes him more valuable than might be widely known and his confidence with the puck is growing, which allows him to control the puck more effectively in traffic. That defensive conscience means that Hischier will get more difficult checking assignments and start more shifts in the defensive zone, so he is not deployed as favorably as Hughes, but that makes sense. Hughes has the higher offensive ceiling and Hischier can play the 200-foot game. Staying healthy has been an issue for Hischier, as he has missed at least a dozen games in each of the past four seasons. He might be able to match or surpass last season’s 60 points but that will be dependent on whether he can stay in the lineup.

Ondrej Palat

Consistent and dependable throughout his career with the Tampa Bay Lightning, which included playing a prominent role on two Stanley Cup champions, the 31-year-old winger has finished with at least 40 points in seven of his nine NHL seasons. As a proven performer who has played tough minutes, Palat will be a big help to the Devils’ young forward core. He won’t be fazed by any high-pressure situations and if he plays with Hughes, a 50-point season would be within Palat’s grasp, maybe a little lower if he skates on Hischier’s wing. While Palat was overshadowed at times by the stars in Tampa Bay, he also rose to the occasion in the playoffs, scoring 27 goals in 71 playoff games over the past three seasons. If the Devils can get to the postseason, it would be nice to have someone like Palat, who knows what to do when they get there.

Dawson Mercer

A promising rookie season ended with Mercer tallying 42 points in 82 games, though he managed just one goal in the last 11 games of the season. Mercer played a good portion of his rookie season at center, and won just 35.4% of his faceoffs, but moved to the wing and, despite his late-season slump, that should allow him more offensive freedom because he has good vision and should thrive with skilled linemates. If that means skating on Jack Hughes’ wing, that’s a pretty good place for a second year forward looking to break out offensively. As a young player, Mercer offers a higher degree of potential variance when forecasting his point totals for this season. Some improvement on his rookie season, maybe to around 50 points, would be a quality step forward, but if he is a really good fit in that spot, maybe he could score even more.

Yegor Sharangovich

After a strong finish to his rookie season and a quality sophomore campaign, the 23-year-old winger has put up 31 goals in his past 90 games, and his 1.11 goals per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time last season had him scoring at the same rate as Evgeni Malkin and Tomas Hertl. Sharangovich has a quick release and goes hard to the net, so his opportunities to score are based on positioning, anticipation, and then linemates that do a good job feeding him the puck in scoring position. Sharangovich deserves credit for putting himself in good positions to score and the 24-year-old should be expected to contribute 25 goals and 45-50 points.

Tomas Tatar

A heady veteran winger, Tatar struggled in his first season with the Devils, producing 30 points in 76 games, the lowest per-game scoring rate of his career, thanks in part to an 11-game scoreless drought in the middle of the season. The 31-year-old is still a solid play driving winger, and that can’t be ignored, but for a Devils team that sorely needed contributions from skilled wingers, Tatar’s performance was disappointing. He can still fill a complementary role and the opportunity should still be there for him to produce, maybe not like his best years in Montreal, but better than last season. Taking into account that Tatar has recorded three seasons with more than 55 points, counting on more than 40 points this season would appear to be entirely reasonable.

Erik Haula

Getting traded to New Jersey lands Haula with the seventh team of his career and comes after he scored 18 goals and 44 points for the Bruins last season, both the second highest totals of his career. He had a strong finish to the season, with 10 goals and 19 points in his last 19 games. Haula also recorded a career-high 129 hits, and the ability to provide secondary scoring as well as play with a bit of an edge makes him a nice fit in a third-line center role for the Devils. Last season was one of Haula’s best seasons so it would be optimistic to count on that production again. If he stays healthy, though, 35 points would be an achievable target for the veteran forward.

Andreas Johnsson

Although the 27-year-old winger contributed 35 points last season and it seems like he is still going to be battling for ice tme, Johnsson has enough speed and skill to play a complementary role on a scoring line. His instincts are decent but his play without the puck needs improvement and that could prevent him from handling a bigger role, especially now that the Devils have improved forward depth. That uncertainty over Johnsson’s role on the team tempers any expectations for his production, so a total around the 35 points that he produced last season should be a fair baseline for expectations, with room for variance in either direction.

DEFENSE

Dougie Hamilton

A prized free agent signing a year ago, Hamilton is a rare talent, a smooth skating 6-foot-6 right shot defenseman. Although he had just nine goals last season, Hamilton averaged more than three shots on goal per game for the fifth straight season. He gets hammered by accusations of being soft and it doesn’t help matters if his defensive performance slips, as it did in his first season with the Devils, but Hamilton is typically an elite offensive defenseman whose puck-moving ability tends to offset anything that he gives back on the defensive end. Injuries have caught up to Hamilton in two of the past three seasons, but he was very durable before that, so if he is relatively healthy this season, he should be relied upon to score at least a dozen goals and 45-50 points, with potential to go significantly higher. In his last two seasons with Carolina, for example, Hamilton put up 82 points in 102 games.

Damon Severson

A 28-year-old right shot defenseman who just put up a career-high 46 points last season, Severson is a potential free agent in the summer of 2023. The Devils typically get better results with Severson on the ice, at least in terms of shots, but he has yet to have a season in the NHL in which his team outscores the opposition during 5-on-5 play. Severson has been very durable, and in a contract year should be poised for significant production, in the range of 40 points, maybe a little more.

Ryan Graves

Even though Graves is 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, he is not an especially physical option on the blueline, but he is a steady top-four defenseman and that matters a lot for a team that is seeking a path to credibility. His ice time has climbed steadily since he arrived in the league, reaching a career-high 20:43 time on ice per game last season. Graves recorded a career-high 28 points last season and with 135 hits, he did fill the stat sheet a little bit. Scoring is not necessarily going to drive Graves’ value, but he ought to be capable of 25 points and then add to that with hits and blocked shots to make him worth considering in deep leagues.

John Marino

Acquired in a trade that sent Ty Smith to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Marino is a strong skater and capable puck handler who gets the breakout started with a quality first pass but is not much of a factor in terms of physical play. At the same time, he is particularly adept at defending the blueline, and that reliability should make him a valuable contributor in New Jersey. Unless he seizes a bigger role than anticipated, Marino will likely produce 25-30 points this season and without significant peripheral stats, that will serve to limit his fantasy appeal.

GOALTENDING

Mackenzie Blackwood

The New Jersey Devils are growing dangerously close to turning Mackenzie Blackwood into the next John Gibson; after debuting at the NHL level with an impressive game and an admirable confidence level, he’s struggled more and more behind the lottery-dwelling New Jersey lineup each season. This past year was perhaps the worst of all; plagued by a lingering heel injury that left him ginger in the crease and slow to move, Blackwood was limited to just 25 games all year and spent months at a stretch on the team’s long-term injured reserve list.

The club gave very little information regarding what exactly was nagging at Blackwood, so it’s hard to get a read on just what kind of a timetable he’ll need to return to full form. With everything from calcaneal fractures to achilles damage and plantar fasciitis up for grabs as possible problems the goaltender could have faced, the Devils could have Blackwood back at his best as soon as the year begins, or they could be looking at a lengthy return-to-form timeline for the formerly-established number one. The good news is that the team brought Vitek Vanecek in to ease the workload, offering both a younger source of reinforcement (therefore one less likely to get hampered by wear and tear issues) and a goaltender who has more promise to remain a legitimate tandem option than some of the major-minor tweeners the team has tried to deploy in the last few years. There’s less pressure for Blackwood to play through health-related troubles with Vanecek sitting on the bench than there was with backups like Keith Kinkaid and Jon Gillies, which should hopefully ease some of the pressure he faced and allow him to perform at peak capacity. That’s good news for fans – because when he was at full strength, Blackwood’s game forced shooters to show their hands and come to him in a way that made him hard to trick and overthrow.

Projected starts: 55-60

Vitek Vanecek

Washington fans likely hadn’t predicted that they’d spend their 2021-22 season hotly debating whether the team was in better hands with heir apparent Ilya Samsonov or fellow draft-and-developee Vitek Vanecek. And worse, they likely hadn’t predicted that they’d be debating it so hotly not because both goaltenders were doing so well, but because both were continuing to struggle so consistently.

The lukewarm outcome of their year left the Capitals opting to cut ties with both of their starters this summer, though, and New Jersey was one of the two teams that decided to step in and offer their services to attempt a reclamation project. They’ll enter their 2022-23 campaign hoping that Vanecek, who fell shy of recording quality starts in over half his games last year, can bounce back and offer some consistent support behind MacKenzie Blackwood. There’s a hope that the addition of some experience in Blackwood will give Vanecek some direction, and that taking some of the pressure off should enable him to take a step back and tighten back up some of his game moving forward. But it’s hard to really figure out just how much of Vanecek’s game was growing pains, and how much was struggles to read the plays happening in front of him; while he didn’t get quite as goaded into oversliding and shifting out of the net as Samsonov did behind the Washington defense, his issues in coverage had more to do with missed positioning and inconsistent work with his hands. His missed goals came in inches, which make it harder to discern how many were mistakes and how many were simply the result of getting set and positioned off-angle from where he really needed to be.

Projected starts: 25-30

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY HOCKEY POINTS- 2021-22 – NEW SEASON!

Scott Cullen — Wed, 22 Sep 2021 20:47:12 +0000

Welcome to a new season of 20 Fantasy Points on McKeen’s Hockey. Each week I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

One thing to remember when looking at trends is that they are not intended to be guarantees of future performance. They might provide indicators or probabilities but, sometimes, in a league with more than 700 players, there are exceptions, players that can ride a wave of high percentages.

So here are some stats to consider as we approach the 2021-2022 season, with much more to come leading up to the drop of the puck and throughout the NHL season.

#1 Goal scoring has increased in recent years but was down a little bit last season. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, goals per team per game hovered around 2.98 goals per game. Last season, it was down to just under 2.90 goals per game. That’s not a dramatic decline and the consistency of the range should make it a little more manageable for forecasting purposes. As recently as 2017-2018, the goals per team per game average was 2.72, so we are operating in a world with a little more offense.

#2 One of the paths to finding fantasy hockey value is to go against public perception and one of the factors in public perception, both good and bad, is playoff performance. For that reason, there is probably value to be found in the likes of Pittsburgh goaltender Tristan Jarry after he posted a .888 save percentage in a six-game first-round loss to the Islanders. Similarly, New Jersey winger Tomas Tatar was a healthy scratch for the Montreal Canadiens for most of their run to the Stanley Cup Final, which overshadows that Tatar was comfortably the Habs’ top scorer over the past three seasons. Even Toronto’s Mitch Marner, to some degree, could provide some value here. His past two playoff performances have been entirely forgettable and yet his 228 points in the past three seasons ranks eighth and his 1.16 points per game in that time ranks 10^th.

#3 A common, and more recent way to find value is seeking out players due for regression when it comes to on-ice shooting percentage. This works in both directions but players that have really high on-ice shooting percentages are likely to decline and those that are really low tend to get a bit of a boost. It is not a universal truth but a tendency. Some players who benefited from a high on-ice shooting percentage last season include Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno (15.1 OisH%), Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson (13.8 OiSH%), Seattle’s Jared McCann (13.6 OiSH% with PIttsburgh), Detroit’s Jakub Vrana (13.5 OiSH%), Vegas’ Chandler Stephenson (13.0 OiSH%), and Washington’s Evgeny Kuznetsov (12.9 OiSH%). This does not mean that those players can’t be productive this season, but they are not likely to duplicate those high percentages.

#4 A sustainable on-ice shooting percentage, over a three-year span, ranges between 11 and 12 percent, which is still higher than the vast majority of players can expect. From that group above, Kuznetsov (11.9%), Vrana (11.5%), and Pettersson (11.4%) have had high on-ice shooting percentages more consistently in the past three seasons.

DALLAS, TX - FEBRUARY 23: Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen (4) handles the puck at the blue line during the game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Dallas Stars on February 23, 2019 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX. (Photo by Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire)

#5 On the low end of the on-ice shooting percentage spectrum, there are always going to be grinders who don’t necessarily fall into the fantasy discussion that have very low on-ice shooting percentages. Some players that had low on-ice shooting percentages last season that could reasonably expect better in 2021-2022 include: Detroit’s Dylan Larkin (4.9%), the Islanders’ Kyle Palmieri (5.3%), Nashville’s Filip Forsberg (5.5%), and Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen (5.6%).

#6 Similarly, individual players tend to fall within a reasonable range when it comes to their own shooting percentage. Those that are inflated are likely to come down and the player who is generating shots but not getting goals is likely to have their shooting percentage improve. Again, this is not a hard and fast rule – because Rickard Rakell exists – but a tendency. Some players that had unusually lofty shooting percentages last season include:

Minnesota’s Marcus Foligno (27.5%), whose previous high in a season of at least 20 games, was 13.4%.

St. Louis’ Brandon Saad (22.1% with Colorado), whose career shooting percentage going into last season was 11.4%.

Vegas’ Mark Stone (21.4%) and Stone has been a high-percentage finisher for his career (15.8%) but that’s not 21.4% either.

Washington’s T.J. Oshie (20.8%) which is unsustainably high, but Oshie has been scoring on 17.9% of his shots in six seasons with the Capitals, making hay on that power play, so while he may not score on such a high percentage again, the drop off may not be so dramatic in Oshie’s case.

Seattle’s Alex Wennberg (20.7%) was a notorious pass-first playmaker for his entire career, scoring on 8.0% of his shots prior to last season before he turned sniper with the Florida Panthers. It would be surprising if his shooting percentage did not fall by a significant amount this season.

Chicago’s Alex DeBrincat (20.6%) had a career-low shooting percentage of 8.7% in 2019-2020, so he seemed like a good bet for a bounce-back season in 2021, but that was a dramatic swing.

#7 Whose high shooting percentages can be trusted? In the past three seasons, the shooting percentage leaders (all situations, min. 1000 minutes) are:

Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (20.1%)

Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point (19.2%)

Washington’s T.J. Oshie (19.0%)

Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos (18.2%)

Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele (17.8%)

Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson (17.6%)

#8 On the other hand, some players that uncharacteristically low shooting percentages during the 2021 season:

Montreal’s Jonathan Drouin (2.6%) had a career shooting percentage of 9.7% going into last season.

Buffalo’s Jack Eichel (3.3%) scored on a career-high 15.9% of his shots in 2019-2020 but regression came for him in a big way last season and now he remains in a holding pattern, unsure for which team he will play his next game.

Boston’s Jake DeBrusk (5.4%) had scored on 13.5% of his shots in his first three NHL seasons before his shooting percentage crashed last season.

St. Louis’ Vladimir Tarasenko (6.2%) had never finished an NHL season with a shooting percentage lower than 10.7% prior to last season. Maybe his ongoing shoulder issues played into it, or maybe he was just snakebit, but he finished with just four goals in 24 games.

Buffalo’s Jeff Skinner (6.3%) has had fluctuating shooting percentages throughout his career but after scoring 40 goals on a career-high 14.9% shooting percentage in 2018-2019, he has dropped off dramatically. Can he get it back?

#9 Opportunity is always a driver of fantasy hockey value. Some forwards looking at significant new roles with new teams include Conor Garland, Vancouver; Blake Coleman, Calgary; Zach Hyman, Edmonton; Viktor Arvidsson, Los Angeles; Brandon Saad, St. Louis; Nick Ritchie, Toronto.

#10 On defense, the move to a new team might result in more power play time but the opportunity to play with a different supporting cast can make a difference, too. Here are some defenders that could be looking at beneficial new situations: Ryan Ellis, Philadelphia; Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Vancouer; Vince Dunn, Seattle; Alex Goligoski, Minnesota; Adam Boqvist, Columbus; Shayne Gostisbehere, Arizona. Probably Tony DeAngelo in Carolina, too.

#11 Considering how team-dependent goaltending production tends to be, goaltenders that switch teams might have the greatest change in their fantasy value. Think of how much more appealing Darcy Kuemper is in Colorado than if he had stayed in Arizona. Same for Linus Ullmark in Boston. At the lower end of the goaltender spectrum, Adin Hill could benefit from the move from Arizona to San Jose, at least in terms of having an opportunity to play more.

#12 The opposite side of that coin is the goaltenders that moved to teams that are not likely to be as strong as the team they left and that will put a dent into their fantasy value. Philipp Grubauer moving from Colorado to Seattle and Marc-Andre Fleury going from Vegas to Chicago are a couple of notable examples. Alex Nedeljkovic likely faces a worse team in front of him in Detroit, after playing in Carolina, but also has a likelihood of handling a starter’s role for a full season, so there are trade-offs to consider.

ANAHEIM, CA - MARCH 10: Anaheim Ducks Left Wing Trevor Zegras (46) in action during a game against the Los Angeles Kings played on March 10, 2021 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)

#13 The NHL has rules governing rookie eligibility and one of the main facets is that players can not have played 26 or more games in a previous NHL season. Here are some players that are officially rookies that flashed some potential in 2021: Trevor Zegras, Anaheim; Jamie Drysdale, Anaheim; Tanner Jeannot, Nashville; Wade Allison, Philadephia; Shane Pinto, Ottawa; Cole Caufield, Montreal, and Evan Bouchard, Edmonton.

#14 Connor McDavid scored 105 points in 56 games to lead the league last season. Pro-rated over an 82-game season, Leon Draisaitl and Brad Marchand would have hit 100 points last season, too. How many players could score 100 points in an 82-game 2021-2022 season? Since 2015-2016, there have been 13 100-point seasons recorded in the NHL. McDavid has four, Nikita Kucherov, Patrick Kane and Draisaitl have two, while Marchand, Claude Giroux, and Sidney Crosby each have one.

#15 Can anyone catch McDavid for the scoring title this season? It won’t be easy, since a pro-rated total at last season’s scoring rate (1.88 points per game) would give McDavid 154 points. The closest contenders would seem to be Kucherov, who scored 128 points (1.56 points per game) in 2018-2019, Draisaitl, who tallied 110 points (1.55 points per game) in 2019-2020, and perhaps Artemi Panarin, who has back-to-back seasons with 1.38 points per game for the New York Rangers.

#16 One measure of interest when it comes to forecasting player point totals is individual point production (IPP) because it shows the percentage of points that a player is involved in relative to the number of goals for which they are on the ice. Some players have more of the offense run through them so, naturally, their percentages will be higher, but an IPP that is atypically high is not likely to be duplicated. Some players coming off a season with a high all-situations IPP include Toronto’s Jason Spezza (90.9%, Minnesota’s Mats Zuccarello (87.5%), N.Y. Rangers’ Artemi Panarin (84.1%), Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (84.0%), St. Louis’ David Perron (82.9%), and San Jose’s Tomas Hertl (82.7%).

#17 On the other hand, some players who might expect an IPP boost this season compared to last include: St. Louis’ Robert Thomas (46.2%), Nashville’s Matt Duchene (46.4%), N.Y. Rangers’ Chris Kreider (46.2%), Nashville’s Ryan Johansen (47.8%), and Colorado’s J.T. Compher (48.7%)

VANCOUVER, BC - MARCH 06: Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) waits for a face-off during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on March 6, 2021 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

#18 While McDavid running away with the points race was amazing, Auston Matthews had a comfortable margin in the race for the Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s leading goal scorer, tucking in 41 goals, eight more than McDavid, who was in second place. Who are Matthews’ top challengers? Well, naturally McDavid should be considered and it would be insulting not to include Alex Ovechkin, who has led the league in goals nine times, but outside of that group, maybe Boston’s David Pastrnak, who scored 48 goals in 2019-2020 or, conceivably, Chicago’s Patrick Kane or Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov, who are two of six players to have multiple 40-goal seasons since 2015-2016 (the others being Matthews, McDavid, Draisaitl, and Ovechkin).

#19 The darkhorse candidate could be Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, who has never scored more than 41 goals in a season and is coming off a year in which he managed just 20 goals in 48 games but MacKinnon consistently generates more than four shots on goal per game season after season and if he puts up 350-plus shots in an 82-game season, it is possible that MacKinnon could score 50 goals and that would put him into the mix.

#20 Shot volume is an important indicator when it comes to goals. Since 2015-2016, there has been one season in which a player scored 30 goals and did not have more than two shots on goal per game – New Jersey’s Adam Henrique, in 2015-2016, scored 30 goals on just 1.86 shots per game. In that time, there is only one player to have multiple 30 goal seasons while generating fewer than 2.5 shots on goal per game and that is Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele.