Travis HAMONIC – McKeen's Hockey

NHL: DADOUN – THE FANTASY WEEK AHEAD – A look at the rookie race at mid-season – Favourable schedules and player to target

Ryan Dadoun — Mon, 13 Jan 2025 15:20:08 +0000

I haven’t spent any time talking about the rookie race this campaign. Macklin Celebrini did miss 12 games early on due to a lower-body injury, which mitigated the early attention he might have otherwise had, but he’s been healthy for a while and has looked fantastic, providing 13 goals and 28 points through 32 appearances.

Montreal Canadiens defenseman Lane Hutson (48) (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

At this stage, though, the reason why I haven’t dipped into the Calder Trophy race is because there’s not a lot to chew on there. Celebrini does have direct competition with Matvei Michkov, but Michkov is just one point ahead of Celebrini despite having played in eight more outings, so barring a change in the second half of the campaign, Celebrini seems like the clear favorite between them. Beyond that, the main competitors are defenseman Lane Hutson, who has three goals and 31 points in 41 outings, and goaltender Dustin Wolf, who is 13-6-2 with a 2.60 GAA and a .914 save percentage in 21 starts.

Comparing Celebrini, Hutson and Wolf is mostly subjective because they bring completely different things, so while a judgment call can and will be made by the end of the season which of them -- or Michkov if he does surprise me -- should get the trophy, comparing them in an article setting feels like evaluating apples and oranges.

Still, we might be able to glean something by evaluating how each of them compares to previous rookies at this stage of their careers. For Celebrini, we’ll compare his start against other forwards, and Hutson will be evaluated against defensemen. I’ll simplify things a little by making the comparisons based on games played (in other words, Connor Bedard’s first 32 games played will be measured against the Sharks rookie) to factor out Celebrini’s injury.

In the case of Wolf, I’m not going to break it down because the odds of him winning the Calder Trophy seem slim. While I think he deserves to be in the conversation to become one of the finalists, the last goaltender to take the trophy was Steve Mason back in 2008-09, and he was unreal that campaign with a 33-20-7 record, 2.29 GAA and .916 save percentage along with 10 shutouts. To put that into the context of that campaign, Mason also finished second in Vezina Trophy voting and fourth in the Hart race. With all due respect to Wolf, he’s not doing anything that measures up to that -- at least, he hasn’t yet.

With that in mind, let’s look at Celebrini’s recent comparables:

Alex Ovechkin, 2005-06, 19-19-38

Connor McDavid, 2016-17, 13-21-34

Sidney Crosby, 2005-06, 13-19-32

Patrick Kane, 2007-08, 8-23-31

Connor Bedard, 2023-24, 12-17-29

Macklin Celebrini, 2024-25, 13-15-28

Auston Matthews, 2016-17, 16-9-25

Paul Stastny, 2006-07, 8-14-22

You can see that his pace is a step below that of Ovechkin, McDavid, Crosby and Kane (note that McDavid missed roughly half of his rookie season and consequently missed out on the Calder), but he’s doing about as well as Bedard did last year.

Matthews and Stastny are there to remind us that we need to take these numbers with a grain of salt. Matthews is an amazing goal scorer who began his career with a four-goal game, but he had an extended quiet period from Oct. 27-Nov. 22 (0-3-3 in 13 games) during his rookie campaign, which diminished his early returns. In the case of Stastny, he finished with 28 goals and 78 points in 82 appearances in his first campaign, but he got off to a slow start.

These are ultimately still small sample sizes, but it does at least show that Celebrini is off to a respectable start when measured against the biggest stars of the salary cap era.

Still, Hutson looks even better:

Cale Makar*, 2019-20, 11-26-37

Shayne Gostisbehere*, 2015-16, 12-22-34

Lane Hutson*, 2024-25, 3-28-31

Quinn Hughes*, 2019-20, 4-26-30

Moritz Seider, 2021-22, 3-23-26

Zach Werenski, 2016-17, 6-20-26

Luke Hughes*, 2023-24, 7-16-23

Tyler Myers, 2009-10, 3-19-22

Brock Faber*, 2023-24, 2-18-20

You’ll notice a number of defensemen on this list with asterisks, which indicates that I took the first 41 games of their Calder season, not their first 41 games overall. For example, I didn’t count Makar’s 10 playoff appearances before 2019-20 or Quinn Hughes’ five regular-season outings in 2018-19. Hutson’s two appearances in 2023-24 weren’t factored in either, not that it would have hurt him -- he finished last season with a pair of assists.

That aside, Hutson is off to a remarkable start compared to other defensemen of the salary cap era. Faber did well enough to finish second in Calder Trophy voting last campaign with 47 points, and Hutson is well ahead of him. Moritz Seider is the last blueliner to win the award, and Hutson is outpacing the Red Wings defenseman as well.

Hutson is behind Makar and Gostisbehere, but Makar logged just 57 games as a rookie, consequently finishing with 50 points, and Gostisbehere didn’t play a full campaign either, finishing with 46 points in 66 outings. Hutson is currently on a 62-point pace. That would surpass Nicklas Lidstrom’s 60 points in 1991-92 and be the most since Brian Leetch’s 71 points in 1988-89.

Again, it’s apples and oranges between Celebrini and Hutson, but if you’re just talking about who is on track to leave the bigger mark on history for a rookie in their position, then so far that’s clearly Hutson.

Columbus Blue Jackets (Tue vs PHI, Thu vs SJS, Sat @ NYR)

At this point, it seems very likely Buffalo’s playoff drought, which dates back to 2011, will continue, but another franchise’s bid to re-enter the postseason might be successful. The Blue Jackets are in the mix for a Wild Card spot with some favorable games ahead of them. They’ll play in home against Philadelphia and San Jose on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before visiting the Rangers on Saturday. At the time of writing, none of those three adversaries have a winning record.

The Blue Jackets are no strangers to injuries this campaign, but they are facing arguably their biggest challenge on that front with Sean Monahan on the injured reserve list due to a wrist issue. It’s not clear how long he’ll be out for, but he was placed on IR rather quickly after sustaining the injury Tuesday, which probably isn’t a great sign.

Before the injury, Monahan had 14 goals and 41 points through 41 appearances in 2024-25 while playing primarily on the Blue Jackets’ top line and first power-play unit. His loss will be felt, but if there is any silver lining at all, it’s that Columbus had a promising young forward waiting in the minors for his opportunity.

Luca Del Bel Belluz has excelled with AHL Cleveland in 2024-25, providing 17 goals and 37 points in 34 outings. The 21-year-old was summoned due to Monahan’s absence and was a standout performer in Thursday’s 6-2 victory over Seattle, collecting a goal and an assist in 11:16 of ice time. It’s reasonable to believe that his playing time will increase as he settles in, and he seems like a nice short-term grab to me -- short term because he might return to the minors once Monahan recovers.

Adam Fantilli is likely to be another player leaned on during Monahan’s absence. He logged 18:41, including 1:42 with the man advantage, Thursday and registered an assist to extend his scoring streak to four games. The 20-year-old’s nine goals and 20 points in 42 appearances in 2024-25 is nothing to write home about, but the 2023 No. 3 overall pick has tremendous upside that makes him worth keeping a very close eye on.

Dallas Stars (Tue @ TOR, Thu vs MTL, Sat @ COL, Sun vs DET)

Dallas has won its past six games, pushing its record to 26-13-1 in 2024-25. Although the Stars are having an incredible season, they’re still not in position to have the home-ice advantage in the first round because of the tough division they play in. Consequently, the Stars need every point they can get. They’ll try to stay strong in Toronto on Tuesday before hosting Montreal on Thursday. Dallas then has a back-to-back set over the weekend, playing in Colorado on Saturday and at home against Detroit on Sunday.

Jason Robertson’s resurgence has been a major part of the Stars’ winning streak. He was playing well below his potential early in the campaign, recording four goals and eight points across his opening 17 outings. Since then, he hasn’t been held off the scoresheet in consecutive games and has been especially effective recently, supplying three goals and 11 points over his past six outings. To put that into perspective, he leads all players in scoring from Dec. 29-Jan. 9 -- Zach Werenski and Mitch Marner are tied for second with nine points each.

Matt Duchene has also been on a roll. Although he’s having a strong campaign overall, Duchene had a slow stretch from Dec. 4-27 in which he was limited to a goal and an assist over 10 contests. He’s since rebounded with three goals and eight points across his past six outings.

The best part for Dallas is Duchene and Robertson typically play on separate lines, so this isn’t a case of one player’s hot streak simply feeding into the other’s, they’re both gelling at the same time independent of each other, which helps spread out the offense. That said, Duchene’s linemates Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn are looking good as well with eight and seven points, respectively, across Dallas’ past six games. Robertson’s linemates Evgenii Dadonov and Roope Hintz are also enjoying strong stretches with six and five points, respectively, over the same span.

The only downside is Logan Stankoven, who serves on the third line, hasn’t been doing much. He has the most offensive potential among the forwards outside of the top six, but the 21-year-old has been a mixed bag this campaign with four goals and 19 points in 38 outings, and that’s despite an amazing start of the season in which he had four goals and 14 points over his opening 15 games. He’s worth monitoring to see if he gets hot again, but he’s too streaky to be an everyday option in fantasy.

Florida Panthers (Mon @ PHI, Tue @NJD, Thu vs DET, Sat vs ANA)

The Panthers have a real shot of reaching the 100-point mark for the third time in four seasons -- and they played at a 100-point pace in the shortened 2021 campaign (37-14-5) -- but they’ve been going through something of a rough patch with a 3-4-0 record from Dec. 23-Jan. 8. Florida will attempt to correct course on the road against the Flyers on Monday and the Devils on Tuesday. The Panthers will then return home to host Detroit on Thursday and Anaheim on Saturday.

Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart typically drive Florida’s offense, but none of them have been especially noteworthy lately -- each of them has no more than one goal and three points across Florida’s past five outings. Instead, Jesper Boqvist has been the unlikely leader recently, collecting four goals and six points over that five-game span.

This won’t last -- the 26-year-old has never recorded more than 23 points in a single campaign -- but you can enjoy this while it lasts. If nothing else, the timing of it has taken a touch of pressure off the Panthers’ major forwards during one of their quieter stretches.

One forward who might be feeling the pressure regardless, though, is Sam Bennett. He was amazing at the start of the campaign, supplying 13 goals and 26 points across his opening 27 appearances, which made it look like he might earn a big payday in the final season of his four-year, $17.7 million contract. Some decline was likely inevitable, but rather than slow, he’s collapsed, recording just one assist over his past 13 outings.

If there is a silver lining, Bennett is still firing the puck at a decent rate, accounting for 25 shots in his past eight outings, and his role with the team alongside Tkachuk and Verhaeghe seems largely intact. It seems just a matter of time before he breaks out of his recent slump, but he probably won’t have another stretch like he did in the early portion of 2024-25.

Montreal Canadiens (Tue @ UTA, Thu @ DAL, Sat vs TOR, Sun vs NYR)

Montreal wasn’t terribly impressive early in the campaign, owning an 11-16-3 record through Dec. 14, but the Canadiens have gone on a 9-2-0 run since. That’s put them into the mix for a playoff spot going into next week’s action. Montreal will begin on the road with games in Utah on TuesdayJack Hughes, and Dallas on Thursday. The Canadiens will then host the Maple Leafs on Saturday and the Rangers on Sunday.

A key factor in Montreal’s recent success has been its offense. The Canadiens have averaged 3.82 goals per game across their past 11 contests, which is a huge spike from their 2.70 goals per game over their first 30 outings.

Interestingly, there’s very little overlap with Patrik Laine’s success after returning from a knee injury and Montreal’s run. He did have an incredible eight goals and nine points in nine outings, but that was from Dec. 3-21, so mostly before Montreal took off. He then had no goals and an assist in four appearances from Dec. 23-31 and has missed the Canadiens’ last four outings due to an illness. You could absolutely make an argument that his hot return helped get the ball rolling, but he’s not what’s sustained it.

Cole Caufield has been an offensive leader over that stretch with six goals and 13 points through 11 outings, but that’s nothing new for him -- he has 23 goals and 40 points in 41 games overall -- so while he’s an important part of the Canadiens’ offense, he’s not what changed. The same goes for Nick Suzuki, who has two goals and 12 points across his past 11 appearances, giving him 13 goals and 42 points in 2024-25.

If you want the secret sauce, it’s been depth players stepping up. Joel Armia, Juraj Slafkovsky, Emil Heineman and Jake Evans have each had 15 points or fewer over Montreal’s first 30 outings, but those four have each collected seven or more points over the past 11 games.

Meanwhile, we’ve seen some promise from Jakub Dobes. He’s made three starts so far and is 3-0-0 with a GAA and a save percentage of 0.97 and .959, respectively. Granted, that’s a small sample size, but those matches were against Florida, Colorado and Washington -- all on the road -- so the Canadiens have given him tough competition, and he’s risen to the occasion.

Sam Montembeault has been largely hit-and-miss this campaign, including from Dec. 17 onward. He does have a 6-2-0 record over that stretch, but he also has a 2.78 GAA and an .890 save percentage. With that in mind, there’s a chance Dobes could see his workload begin to increase.

New Jersey Devils (Tue vs FLA, Thu @ TOR, Sat vs PHI, Sun vs OTT)

The Devils recent mediocre play has been due to a cold spell offensively. New Jersey has been strong overall, ranking 11th in goals per game with 3.16 goals per game, but the Devils have averaged just 2 goals per game across their past seven outings.

Forwards Jack Hughes (two goals, six points), Jesper Bratt (one goal, five points) and Ondrej Palat (three goals, four points), as well as defenseman Dougie Hamilton (five assists), are the only players who have made notable contributions on offense during that seven-game stretch. Timo Meier (one goal, two points) and especially Nico Hischier (one goal, two points) stand out as having been unusually cold in that span.

It's just a matter of time before the Devils start scoring again, though, so I wouldn’t be overly worried. It’s also worth remembering that six of New Jersey’s past seven outings have been on the road, so perhaps that worked against the Devils.

For his part, Markstrom hasn’t been amazing recently, but he also hasn’t been the issue. He’s limited the competition to two or three goals in each of his past five starts, which would be good enough under normal circumstances. He’s also still putting up strong numbers overall with a 21-8-3 record, 2.19 GAA and .911 save percentage across his past 32 appearances.

So, if you have New Jersey players on your team, my recommendation would be to hold firm and anticipate better times ahead.

Ottawa Senators (Tue @ NYI, Thu vs WAS, Sat vs BOS, Sun @ NJD)

Ottawa is going through a four-game schedule in the week of Jan. 6-12, and it has another full slate ahead. The Senators will begin next week with a road matchup against the Islanders before hosting Washington and Boston on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. The Senators will then conclude the week in New Jersey on Sunday. With those final two games, the Senators will have played in five back-to-back sets, totaling 10 matches, in the span of 12 contests.

Ottawa has suffered four straight defeats to start January and is 1-5-1 across its past seven outings. With Montreal and Detroit both trending in the right direction, the Senators are in danger of slipping to seventh in the Atlantic Division and seeing their playoff chances fade further.

Brady Tkachuk, who is 25 and in his seventh NHL campaign without making his postseason debut, is doing his best to keep the Senators afloat, recording two goals, five points, 21 PIM and 20 hits over that seven-game span. He’s been Ottawa’s top offensive power during that stretch, but the other forwards the Senators typically rely on for offense -- Claude Giroux, Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson -- have each recorded two or fewer points over that stretch.

Though, perhaps it’s inaccurate to say that the Senators are relying on Giroux for offense, or at least they shouldn’t be at this point. Giroux was still a strong top-line scoring threat when he joined the Senators in 2022, but he seems to have declined substantially at the age of 36, supplying nine goals and 24 points through 40 appearances this campaign. Clearly, he still has something to offer, but those are numbers that would be more in line with a third line forward on a strong team.

Perhaps there’s a strong team out there that would want him in such a role. Giroux is in the final campaign of his three-year, $19.5 million contract, and if the Senators don’t rebuild soon, it would make sense for them to shop the veteran forward. He does have a no-movement clause, so Giroux has complete control over that situation, but his career is winding down, and he hasn’t won the Cup yet, so if presented with the opportunity to play for a serious contender, he’d likely take it.

He'd easily be the Senators’ biggest trade chip if it came to that. Travis Hamonic would also likely have appeal as a third-pairing blueliner, while Nick Cousins and Adam Gaudette might be grabbed to provide playoff-bound teams with forward depth, but if you’re a Senators fan and the team doesn’t turn things around soon, then Giroux rumors are the ones you’ll want to pay attention to.

Philadelphia Flyers (Mon vs FLA, Tue @ CBJ, Thu @ NYI, Sat @ NJD)

The Flyers endured a tough road stretch from Dec. 23-Jan. 5 in which they went 2-3-1. They’re back at home now, but rather than reverse the trend, they’ve dropped their past two games. Their home stint will conclude Monday against the Panthers. After that, they’ll go on a three-game trip involving games against the Blue Jackets on Tuesday, the Islanders on Thursday and the Devils on Saturday. Philadelphia will look to do better in that stretch while attempting to make up ground in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.

Like Ottawa, Philadelphia’s recent struggles has caused its playoff hopes to drastically diminish, but with half the season left, a comeback can’t be ruled out. It’s unfair to put this on the rookie, but a stronger showing out of Matvei Michkov would go a long way toward making that happen.

I noted Michkov’s overall success this season up top, but what I didn’t mention is how cold he’s been recently, recording a goal, an assist and a minus-17 rating across his past 13 appearances. Plus/minus is always a stat that needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but his minus-17 rating from Dec. 14-Jan. 9 is by far the worst in the NHL. The next worst in the NHL during that time period are Brandon Montour and Mikhail Sergachev, who are tied at minus-12. Jamie Drysdale is the next worst member of the Flyers at minus-11 while the next worst Flyers forward is Morgan Frost at minus-9.

Michkov was a healthy scratch for two games from Nov. 7-9 and followed that with an amazing stretch from Nov. 11-Dec. 10 in which he had seven goals, 17 points and a plus-13 rating across 14 outings. I do wonder if maybe another scratch is in Michkov’s future to give him a chance to regroup. Either way, he’s a talented rookie, and it’s not uncommon for rookies to grow through stretches like this -- for one of countless examples, you might recall the Auston Matthews rookie slump I highlighted earlier -- so there’s not much cause for concern about Michkov’s future. In the long run, he should grow from this.

In contrast to his cold spell, Tyson Foerster had an incredible run of six goals and nine points in nine outings from Dec. 18-Jan. 5, but he was held off the scoresheet in Philadelphia’s past two games, so the good times might be over. He’s more of a streaming option given his streaky nature and middle-of-the-road stats (12 goals and 19 points in 41 games). For that reason, it’s best to move on when he shows signs of cooling.

If you’re looking for a hot member of the team, that’s Travis Konecny. He’s having an amazing campaign overall too with 20 goals and 46 points in 42 outings, but he’s been especially productive on the goal front recently with four markers across his last five appearances. His shooting percentage of 19.0 is well above his career average of 13.0, which is a potential warning sign, but that’s been skewed upwards by his power-play goals (a career-high eight). His 5-on-5 shooting percentage of 9.8 is actually a bit low for him (he finished with a 5-on-5 shooting percentage in the double digits in five of his previous seven campaigns), so there might still be some upside in that regard.

Utah HC (Tue vs MTL, Thu vs NYR, Sat vs STL)

Utah is having a streaky season, and lately, the squad has been trending in the wrong direction, going 2-6-2 from Dec. 22-Jan. 10. Fortunately, next week, the team will be at home against adversaries that presently don’t occupy a playoff position. Utah HC will face the Canadiens on Tuesday, the Rangers on Thursday and the Blues on Saturday.

Utah got Connor Ingram back from an upper-body injury, but at the time of writing, he hasn’t drawn into a game since returning, and it’s likely he’ll be used sparing. He didn’t impress before the injury, posting a 6-4-3 record, 3.61 GAA and .871 save percentage in 13 outings. Perhaps the time off has given him a chance to reset, but given Karel Vejmelka’s success -- although he has a 10-11-3 record, he’s stellar in terms of GAA (2.38) and save percentage (.916) -- so there isn’t much motivation to use Ingram except when Vejmelka could use a breather. Then again, the winds with this duo have changed before, so nothing is certain. Vejmelka was the starter in 2022-23, but that role was taken by Ingram last season. Ingram also entered 2024-25 with the No. 1 gig that now belongs to Vejmelka.

Neither has a track record of success long enough to be called a safe bet. The closest thing to that in Utah is Clayton Keller. The 26-year-old forward has been remarkably consistent this campaign, being held off the scoresheet in consecutive games just once in 2024-25 (Oct. 22-24). That steady stream of offense has resulted in him recording 14 goals and 41 points through 40 appearances, putting him well on his way toward reaching the 75-point mark for the third straight campaign.

It's just a shame that the forward corps around him is nothing special. Logan Cooley (11 goals, 35 points), Dylan Guenther (16 goals, 34 points) and Nick Schmaltz (seven goals, 30 points) have all been fine, but no other member of the squad has even reached the 20-point mark. In the long run, Utah does have Tij Iginla, Cole Beaudoin and Daniil But, who could make a significant impact in a couple of years, but none of those young forwards are in a position to help now.

Josh Doan is much closer, but after the 22-year-old turned heads by providing five goals and nine points in 11 games with Arizona in 2023-24, he was quiet during an NHL stint from Oct. 8-26 this campaign, supplying a goal and an assist across nine outings before being sent to AHL Tucson. He did seem to find his way in Tucson, though, contributing eight goals and 21 points over 25 contests, and was recalled Friday as a result. He had three shots in 14:18 of ice time during Utah’s 2-1 win over San Jose.

As already noted, Utah isn’t swimming in offensive depth, so with Keller, Cooley and Schmaltz sharing a line and Dylan Guenther (lower body) out indefinitely, Doan doesn’t have great linemates to play off. He’s at least worth keeping an eye on, but I wouldn’t jump to take him yet.

NHL: DADOUN – THE WEEK AHEAD (February 12th to February 18th) – Washington fading in playoff race and faces tough questions – Favourable schedules and players to target

Ryan Dadoun — Sat, 10 Feb 2024 18:37:42 +0000

Early this season, Washington seemed to be able to manufacture wins despite not looking great on paper. The Capitals had a 17-9-4 record through Dec. 21, but at that time they had a minus-8 goal differential. Washington was doing fine defensively, ranking 10th with 2.73 goals allowed per game, but it was 30th offensively, averaging just 2.43 goals per contest. Washington compensated for that by having one of the league’s best records in one-goal games (10-1-4).

The question at the time was if Washington’s success was mere smoke and mirrors. At this point, it’s fair to say that it was. The Capitals are now 22-20-7. They’re seven points back in the Wild Card race, which might not sound like much, but it’s a mountain to climb this late in the campaign. Meanwhile, their goal differential has gotten even worse, dropping to minus-36.

If Washington can’t find a way to turn things around soon, then the Capitals will need to consider retooling. What would look like, though? Trading Alexander Ovechkin is almost certainly a nonstarter. He’s not having that strong of a season anyway (11 goals and 33 points in 46 games) and at the age of 38, teams might be reluctant to take on his $9.5 million cap hit through 2025-26. Even if he was playing well, though, he’s the face of the franchise and has a no-movement clause, so there would be a lot of barriers to moving him.

TJ Oshie? His $5.75 million cap hit through 2024-25 likely would give contenders pause too. The 37-year-old has just eight goals and 12 points through 32 contests. Tom Wilson agreed to a seven-year, $45.5 million contract in August, so Washington probably won’t trade him, and Dylan Strome is signed to a $5 million cap hit through 2027-28. Meanwhile, Nicklas Backstrom is on the long-term injured reserve and isn’t likely to play again this season while Evgeny Kuznetsov is in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, so neither of them is likely to come up in serious trade conversations.

There are still a couple of players who might be dealt. Anthony Mantha’s 16 goals and 24 points in 45 outings isn’t good relative to his $5.7 million cap hit, but at least his contract ends at the end of this campaign, so there might be contenders willing to part with a pick for him if Washington retains half his remaining salary. Max Pacioretty has a goal and seven points in 14 contests since coming back from his Achilles injury. That’s not great, but there might still be a team interested in him as a secondary scorer and veteran presence.

Those kinds of moves won’t fundamentally change Washington, though, they’ll just leave the Capitals with minor consolation prizes for their lost season. At some point, though, Washington needs to decide if a larger rebuild is necessary. The Capitals are likely reluctant to go down that path while Ovechkin is still under contract, but the alternative might be added years of futility before finally beginning the process.

Anaheim Ducks – TUE @ MTL, THU @ OTT, SAT @ TOR

The Ducks will be in Canada next week, playing in Montreal on Tuesday, Ottawa on Thursday and Toronto on Saturday. The 26-15-8 Maple Leafs figure to be a tough adversary, but Montreal and Ottawa are far removed from the playoff picture.

Those upcoming two games against struggling opponents give Troy Terry an opportunity to extend his hot streak. The 26-year-old has recorded at least a point in six consecutive contests, totaling four goals and six assists. Adam Henrique has been on a run too, providing five goals and 14 points across his last 12 appearances, which gives him 15 goals and 33 points in 49 outings in 2023-24.

Pay special attention to Henrique because there’s a good chance he’ll get traded before the deadline. Granted, that’s not until March 8, but we’ve already seen a couple of major moves, so there’s no guarantee that teams looking to upgrade will wait before pulling the trigger. Especially with Henrique doing so well recently, Anaheim might be able to get a decent return for him. How that impacts Henrique remains to be seen. He’s averaging 17:16 of ice time with Anaheim, including 2:21 with the man advantage, and might not get that kind of role with a contender, which might hinder his fantasy value.

Another trade candidate with Anaheim is Jakob Silfverberg. The 33-year-old forward has struggled this campaign with just five goals and 13 points in 49 outings, but he’s shown some life recently, supplying three goals and five points over his last four appearances. It helps that he’s averaged 15:07 in that span, compared to 12:14 on the season.

Arizona Coyotes – MON @ PHI, WED VS MIN, FRI VS CAR, SUN @ COL

The Coyotes have a busy week ahead of them. It will start with a trip to Philadelphia on Monday, followed by a home stretch versus the Wild on Wednesday and Hurricanes on Friday. Finally, the Coyotes will head to Colorado to play the Avalanche on Sunday.

Although Arizona doesn’t have a back-to-back set next week, the busy schedule might still lead to Karel Vejmelka getting some work. He had a strong relief appearance Thursday, stopping the 28 Golden Knights shots he faced after Connor Ingram surrendered three goals on just six shots midway through the first frame. That strong performance is the exception, though. Vejmelka still has a 6-11-2 record, 3.33 GAA and .900 save percentage in 18 appearances in 2023-24. Ingram has been the better option with a 17-12-1 record, 2.69 GAA and .914 save percentage in 33 outings, but he’s now allowed at least three goals in each of his last three contests, so there’s an opening here for Vejmelka if he can take advantage of it.

Someone else with an opening is Jack McBain. He’s been all over the lineup this season, but recently the 24-year-old has featured on the top unit alongside Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz. McBain isn’t much of an offensive threat, scoring just six goals and 15 points through 34 games, so don’t get too excited, but it of course helps to be working alongside players of that caliber.

Especially with Clayton Keller being hot at the moment. He has eight goals and 15 points over his past 12 contests, bringing him up to 21 tallies and 46 points across 49 games.

Boston Bruins – TUE VS TBL, THU VS SEA, SAT VS LAK

The Bruins get to stay in Boston next week and will host the Lightning on Tuesday, the Kraken on Thursday and the Kings on Saturday. It’s not the easiest schedule, but Seattle isn’t in a playoff position and LA has been slumping for the better part of two months, so the potential is there for the Bruins to have a strong run.

Some teams lack any particular player who has stood out recently. That’s almost never the case for the Bruins. You can count on David Pastrnak to put on a show and, most recently, he’s provided three goals and eight points in four contests. He continues to be one of the league’s biggest stars with 33 goals and 75 points through 51 outings.

One player who isn’t as much of a sure thing is Pavel Zacha, but he’s been clicking lately, providing two goals and six points over his active four-game scoring streak. That brings him up to 12 goals and 33 points in 47 appearances this season.

Meanwhile, Brad Marchand has been quickly climbing up the goal-scoring list. He’s found the back of the net 12 times over his past 15 contests, giving him 25 markers and 51 points in 51 games. That puts him on pace to reach the 40-goal milestone for the first time, but his current hot streak has skewed those numbers and he’s a safer bet to finish with around 35 tallies.

Los Angeles Kings – TUE @ BUF, THU @ NJD, SAT @BOS, SUN @ PIT (BTB)

As noted above, LA has struggled lately, posting a 3-8-6 record over its past 17 outings. The Kings will attempt to rebound during a road trip that will take them to Buffalo on Tuesday, New Jersey on Thursday, Boston on Saturday and Pittsburgh on Sunday. Certainly not the easiest of schedules, but LA is one of the few teams set to play in four contests, so it’s still worthy of mention.

Maybe the Kings will get some help from Brandt Clarke, who was summoned from AHL Ontario on Thursday. He’s been fantastic in the minors, recording eight goals, 33 points and 35 PIM in 32 contests and figures to be a big part of LA’s long-term plans. It’s not clear what role he’ll have next week, but with the way things have been going for the Kings, they could stand to mix things up, and giving Clarke some responsibility would be one way to do that.

Alex Turcotte was also recalled Thursday. He had a goal and an assist in two games with LA during his previous stint and has recorded 24 points (seven goals) across 30 AHL appearances, so the 22-year-old might be helpful too.

Given the busy schedule, Cam Talbot is expected to get at least one opportunity to rebound over the next week. He had a 14-8-3 record, 2.10 GAA and .925 save percentage in 25 appearances through Jan. 2, but since then he’s lost his last seven contests while posting an ugly 4.62 GAA and .865 save percentage. He hasn’t played since Jan. 26, though, so perhaps the 36-year-old goaltender has had sufficient time off to step back and reset.

At the same time, David Rittich has done well, posting a 5-1-3 record, 2.09 GAA and .925 save percentage in 11 outings this season, which is part of the reason why he’s been able to wrestle the starting gig from Talbot. Even if Talbot rebounds, there’s a chance Rittich will stay busy, perhaps in a 1A and 1B situation. Certainly, this is a goaltending duo worth monitoring.

Montreal Canadiens – TUE VS ANA, THU @ NYR, SAT VS WAS

The Canadiens will host the Ducks on Tuesday, visit the Rangers on Thursday and conclude the week with a home match versus the Capitals on Saturday. New York is a tough adversary, but Anaheim and Washington aren’t in playoff positions.

Montreal’s standout forward recently has been Nick Suzuki, who has provided three goals and eight points during his active five-game scoring streak. The 24-year-old was limited to three assists across eight appearances from Jan. 4-18, but he’s been far more hit than miss this campaign, totaling 15 goals and 45 points through 50 contests.

Sean Monahan was having a strong season with Montreal too, but he was dealt to Winnipeg. The silver lining is that opened the door for Brandon Gignac to make his Canadiens debut Tuesday against Washington. Gignac logged 14:54 of ice time, including 0:32 on the power play. He didn’t record a point in that game, but the 26-year-old has 14 goals, 42 points and 36 PIM in 43 outings with AHL Laval this season, so if he continues to serve in a middle-six capacity while seeing time on the Canadiens’ second power-play unit, then he should have some offensive production going forward. Keep in mind that Montreal might not be done trading veterans. At the least, Tanner Pearson is likely to be shopped, and if that happens, the door might be opened to Gignac also serving a bigger role with the man advantage.

It’s safe to say Juraj Slafkovsky won’t be moved, though. Although the 19-year-old hasn’t been a major part of the Canadiens this year, supplying nine goals and 22 points across 50 contests, he is a big part of their long-term plans. He’s also seen an uptick in production recently, collecting five goals and seven points over his last eight games, so perhaps we’re seeing the early stages of a strong second half.

New Jersey Devils – MON VS SEA, TUE @ NAS (BTB), THU VS LAK, SAT VS PHI

New Jersey is gearing up for an eventful week. It will start by hosting the Kraken on Monday, then the Devils will play in Nashville on Tuesday before returning home to face the Kings on Thursday. They’ll conclude the week with a game against the Flyers on Saturday. New Jersey is the home team for that contest, but rather than it being played at Prudential Center, it will be an outdoor event at MetLife Stadium (the home of the New York Giants and New York Jets).

Injuries have held Jack Hughes back in 2023-24, but he returned from an upper-body issue Thursday, logging 20:24 of ice time, including 3:19 with the man advantage. If he can stay healthy, then Hughes adding 35-40 points over the Devils’ final 33 games is a reasonable hope.

Erik Haula might see his role diminish somewhat now that Hughes is back. Haula logged 15:40 on Thursday compared to an average of 17:40 from Jan. 6-Feb. 6 while the Devils were without Hughes. Haula, who had three goals and seven points in 10 outings during that stretch, might see his production decline as a result. He has 11 goals and 25 points in 43 appearances overall.

One forward who is likely to get a lot of work regardless of Hughes’ status is Jesper Bratt. The 25-year-old winger has certainly earned that privilege. He registered three assists Thursday to extend his scoring streak to six contests (four goals, nine points). Bratt’s up to 20 markers and 55 points through 49 outings in 2023-24.

Ottawa Senators – TUE VS CBJ, THU VS ANA, SAT VS CHI

The Senators aren’t having a great campaign, but they’ll be playing against some of the other teams at the bottom of the pack next week. They’ll host the Blue Jackets on Tuesday and the Ducks on Thursday before visiting the Blackhawks on Saturday.

Before that action starts, Anton Forsberg (groin) and Travis Hamonic (upper body) are set to return this Saturday versus Toronto. The Senators are expected to be without Jake Sanderson (lower body) against Toronto, though, and it remains to be seen if he’ll be available next week. If he can’t play, then Mathieu Joseph will likely find himself with a role on the power play again after averaging just 0:10 with the man advantage over Ottawa’s last seven contests. Joseph hasn’t recorded a power-play point this season, but he’s done well overall with eight goals and 23 points through 37 appearances, so this is a situation worth monitoring.

It will also be interesting to see if Forsberg’s return saps time away from starting goaltender Joonas Korpisalo. The No. 1 goaltender has left plenty to be desired this season with a 12-16-2 record, 3.38 GAA and .889 save percentage in 33 outings. However, Korpisalo has stepped up lately, posting a 4-1-2 record, 2.19 GAA and .912 save percentage across his past seven appearances. If he keeps that up, he should be able to hold Forsberg at bay, but if Korpisalo reverts back to his previous struggles, then Forsberg might play on a semi-regular basis down the stretch.

The Senators don’t have any blazing hot forward at the moment, but Shane Pinto has done well since returning from his 41-game suspension for sports wagering activities. He has two goals and four points in six contests and should continue to serve in a middle-six capacity as well as the first power-play unit going forward.

Toronto Maple Leafs – TUE VS STL, THU VS PHI, SAT VS ANA

The Maple Leafs will spend next week at home, hosting the Blues on Tuesday, the Flyers on Thursday and the Ducks on Saturday. That’s not the weakest of schedules, but it’s not a particularly difficult one either. St. Louis and Philadelphia are both in the middle to upper-middle of the pack while Anaheim ranks near the bottom.

Joseph Woll (ankle) still isn’t close to returning, so Ilya Samsonov and Martin Jones are still the team’s goaltending duo. Jones hasn’t started since Jan. 20, but Samsonov has surrendered seven goals on 60 shots (.883 save percentage) over his past two contests, so Jones might get another shot next week. Both of those goaltenders have had great stretches, but also some incredibly rough patches, so they’re risks going forward.

One player who hasn’t dealt with such a roller coaster of a campaign is Auston Matthews. The 26-year-old has eight goals and 13 points in eight contests, but what’s remarkable is he’s not especially hot, that’s practically just the norm for him. Through 48 games, he’s supplied 41 tallies and 61 points and is likely to continue to find the back of the net at a reliable pace as long as he stays healthy. His continued health is critical to the team. While it’s true that Toronto has other superstars, he’s personally scored a staggering 24.3 percent of the team’s entire goals.

In terms of the supporting cast, Toronto doesn’t have anyone doing particularly well at present. The only players to accumulate at least three points over the Leafs’ last five contests are the Big Four (Matthews, John Tavares, Mitchell Marner and William Nylander) and their top defenseman, Morgan Rielly. Matthew Knies is getting a turn on the Matthews’ line, though, so perhaps that will help the 21-year-old forward.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – OTTAWA SENATORS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 07 Oct 2023 20:32:56 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - MARCH 22: Ottawa Senators Left Wing Tim Stutzle (18) (Photo by Steven Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

REVIEW: When the Senators spent the summer of 2022 signing Claude Giroux, then 34 years old, and spending three picks, including the 2022 seventh overall, to acquire Alex DeBrincat, it was a clear sign that they hoped to exit the rebuilding phase. What followed though was a 39-35-8 record – a 13-point gain from a year prior, but insufficient for a postseason berth. Part of the issue was Ottawa finished a mediocre 18th in goals per game (3.16) despite adding two elite forwards. Alex DeBrincat’s 27 goals and 66 points in 82 contests was a regression compared to his 41-goal 2021-22 campaign with Chicago, but the bigger problem was a lack of offensive depth. Eight Senators players reached double digits in goals in contrast to 13 with Edmonton. Ottawa was also mediocre defensively, finishing 18th with a 5-on-5 expected goals against of 174.36, and unlike the Islanders, which squeaked into the playoffs with a worse offense and expected goals against, Ottawa didn’t have an elite goaltender masking their defensive woes. Instead, Cam Talbot and Anton Forsberg were merely average, which sums up the 2022-23 Senators nicely: Not bad, but not good enough.

What’s Changed? The Senators hope they’ve bolstered their mediocre goaltending by signing Joonas Korpisalo to replace Talbot, who left as a free agent. They also failed to agree to terms with DeBrincat, who was a restricted free agent, so they dealt him to Detroit in exchange for a solid middle-six forward in Dominik Kubalik, defensive prospect Donovan Sebrango and two draft picks. In an attempt to make up for the lost offense, Ottawa inked Vladimir Tarasenko to a one-year, $5 million deal.

What would success look like? Ottawa is looking to end its six-year playoff drought, but the competition in the Atlantic Division is intense. A strong year out of Joonas Korpisalo would certainly help, which is possible. He’s not an elite goaltender, but the 29-year-old is solid. A healthy season out of Joshua Norris, who scored 35 goals in 2021-22, but was limited to eight games last year due to a shoulder injury, would also provide Ottawa with a much-needed boost to its offensive depth. Between Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Giroux and Tarasenko, it’s reasonable to believe Ottawa will have two strong lines, but they need enough weapons to fill a decent third unit.

What could go wrong? However, Norris bouncing right back might be too much to hope for. The 24-year-old’s promise is clear, but that 35-goal campaign was also the first time in his career he even reached the 20-goal mark, so he’s far from proven. Meanwhile, Ottawa might get a bit less than Giroux’s 2022-23 finish of 79 points. After all, he’ll turn 36 in January. As far as injury risks go, Ottawa has a big one in elite defenseman Thomas Chabot, who has missed 37 contests over the last two years.

Top Breakout Candidate: One possible solution to Ottawa’s third-line question is Shane Pinto. Playing in his first full campaign, he supplied 20 goals and 35 points in 82 contests last year. Still just 22 years old, Pinto has the potential to start the campaign on the third line and then work himself into a bigger role, especially if Ottawa runs into injury troubles.

Forwards

Brady Tkachuk

Of the 15 forwards who registered over 200 hits last season, no one scored more than Tkachuk’s 35 goals. His 2022-23 season put him in some exclusive company. Alex Ovechkin is the only other player in the NHL’s recorded history to blend that volume of physicality and goal production. Tkachuk’s skillset makes him a unicorn and one of the premier power forwards in the league. Thanks to his willingness to go to the dirty areas of the ice and battle for deflections and loose pucks, Tkachuk has established himself as a shot-generation machine. Of all the qualified skaters who logged over 500 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time last season per NaturalStatTrick, only David Pastrnak averaged more shots per 60 minutes than Tkachuk. Any knocks to Tkachuk’s game are rooted in his defensive contributions and the notion he does not finish as many chances as he should given his shot volume. Considering he scored 35 goals, it may sound weird to read that he does not finish enough, but Tkachuk finished fourth in the league in expected goals (min. 500 5v5 TOI) in 2022-23. His expected goal metrics are always higher than his actual output. One of these years, it feels like if everything breaks right, he has the capacity to put up a monster offensive season. Like many of Ottawa’s other young players, Tkachuk’s poor defensive metrics can partially be explained as a product of the team’s personnel and defensive system. With a vastly improved defensive corps and a greater commitment to puck support as a five-man unit, Tkachuk’s metrics should continue to improve.

Tim Stützle

When the Senators invested in Tim Stützle, signing him to an eight-year contract worth an AAV of $8.35, they gambled on the German’s pedigree and offensive upside. His transition from the wing to centre during his sophomore year helped spark his ability to impact the game on both sides of the puck. In 2022-23, he rewarded the Senators with their long-term investment. He continued to take marked steps in his development offensively and defensively. He would finish the season leading the Senators in scoring with 39 goals and 90 points in 78 games. He became the third centre in franchise history to eclipse that point threshold but holds the distinction of being the youngest to do it at just 21 years of age. The departures of Connor Brown and Alex Formenton represented a significant loss to the Senators’ penalty killing units and Stützle was one of the forwards called upon to fill the void. It speaks to D.J. Smith’s growing confidence in him. Stützle tied for the team lead in shorthanded goals with three and averaged 1:16 of shorthanded ice time per game. Besides the natural growth of a young player, the jump in production can be explained by the quality of linemates. After spending most of the previous season playing predominantly with Alex Formenton and Connor Brown, centring Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux represented a significant improvement. As the team continues to improve around him, the hope is that his offensive production and defensive metrics will continue to improve.

Claude Giroux

Claude Giroux has only played one season for the Senators, but he already has leapt to the top of the list as the best free agent signing in franchise history. In his return home, the 35-year-old wowed fans by recording 35 goals and 79 points while playing in every single one of the Senators’ 82 games. Amazingly, the veteran’s 35 goals established a new personal regular season high. It was the first time Giroux had cracked the 30-goal mark since the 2017-18 season. This boost in production can be chalked up to the chemistry he developed alongside Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle. This trio generated more than 55 percent of the goals (58.49 GF%), shots (56.82 CF%), shots on goal (55.37) and expected goals (59.82 xGF%) at five-on-five per Evolving-Hockey. Playing predominantly as the right winger on this line Giroux had one of the best isolated defensive impacts on the team per Hockeyviz. His ability to impact the game at both ends of the ice was a huge addition to the Senators’ top six. In particular, his strength in the faceoff circle allowed his line to overcome Stützle’s struggles at the dot. Of the players who took more than 300 draws last season, Stützle’s 41.6 percent success rate was the eighth-worst mark in the league. Giroux insulated Stützle’s ineffectiveness with the league’s 10th-best mark at 58.3 percent.

Vladimir Tarasenko

Following the well-publicized departure of last season’s prize acquisition, Alex DeBrincat, the Senators shored up their top six scoring by inking Vladimir Tarasenko to a one-year contract worth $5 million. The signing of the four-time All-Star and 2019 Stanley Cup champion generated headlines. Tarasenko is a recognizable talent who can still be a productive NHL player. In 69 games split between the Blues and Rangers last season, Tarasenko recorded 18 goals and 50 points. It was a step down in production for the six-time 30-goal scorer, but he represented the best available offensive talent that remained on the free agent market. There is a chance that Tarasenko’s waning production is part of an age-related decline, but the good news is that he is just one season removed from the second-best five-on-five shooting percentage of his career (14.8 per Evolving-Hockey). Last season’s (9.7) was the second-worst. A motivated Tarasenko should be extremely valuable to the Senators. If he can get back closer to his career norms, he will have a chance to cash in on the open market next summer. If his production continues to decline, the Senators will still need his offence to outweigh his defensive contributions. Tarasenko’s become a liability on the defensive side of the puck. There is also the question of fit. As a winger who prefers playing his off-side, the addition of Tarasenko to the right wing could necessitate moving one of Claude Giroux or Drake Batherson to their off-side.

Josh Norris

On the heels of a sophomore season in which he exploded for 35 goals and 55 points in 66 games, centre Josh Norris cashed in by signing an eight-year pact carrying an AAV of $7.95 million. The contract represented a significant commitment to the team’s second-line centre and set a relatively high standard for Norris to live up to. Last season, he never got the chance. A devastating shoulder injury curtailed his season and limited him to eight games. So much of Ottawa’s postseason aspirations hinge on Norris’ recovery and his ability to resemble the player that he was pre-injury. Even when healthy, it was fair to believe that Norris would experience some natural regression in his shooting percentage (20.3 in 2021-22). Fortunately, he has historically been a strong shooter throughout his career, so that regression should not be too severe - provided that Norris’ recovery does not inhibit his ability to shoot the puck. Power play usage will be another thing to monitor. Of the forwards who logged over 100 minutes of power play ice time in 2021-22 per NaturalStatTrick, only two forwards averaged a higher goals per 60 minutes of ice time rate than Norris – Chris Kreider and Leon Draisaitl. Norris should continue to play the right side on the first power play unit, but the addition of Vladimir Tarasenko, who also works from that spot, could impact those minutes.

Drake Batherson

On the surface, it is easy to look at Drake Batherson’s numbers and arrive at the conclusion that he had a down year. Scoring 22 goals and tallying 62 points in 82 games is not a terrible season by any measure, but that minus-35 was unsightly. Considering Batherson put up 17 goals in each of the two previous seasons while playing in what was essentially half a season’s worth of games, expectations for him were high. After scoring on more than 15 percent of his shots in each of his previous two campaigns, Batherson’s shooting percentage was almost halved to 8.8 percent last season. Although NaturalStatTrick’s data shows that Batherson’s goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time dropped from 1.08 to 0.37 last season, there are a number of reasons to believe that he can reach another level. He shot the puck more than he ever had in his career. His average of 8.87 shots per 60 of five-on-five ice time per NaturalStatTrick represented a career-high. Last season, only Buffalo’s Tage Thompson (15) hit more posts than Batherson. Provided he can stay healthy and preserve that kind of shot volume, better luck and a regression to the mean in terms of his shooting percentage should allow Batherson to enjoy a career season in 2023-24.

Shane Pinto

For the first time since Brady Tkachuk scored 22 goals during the 2018-19 season, Shane Pinto became the eighth rooking in franchise history to score 20 or more goals in his rookie campaign – joining Tkachuk, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, Patrick Eaves, Daniel Alfredsson, Alexandre Daigle and Alexei Yashin. Pinto started the 2022-23 season strong, scoring six goals in his first eight games. But, when Josh Norris was felled by a shoulder injury, Pinto moved up the depth chart and no longer received the luxury of being insulated. Despite more challenging assignments and responsibilities, the Senators still outshot (51.4 CF%) and created a higher percentage of expected goals (50.7 xGF%) when Pinto was on the ice at five-on-five. With the return of Norris, Pinto will once again be relegated to the third line and potentially easier matchups. For an organization that struggled to generate offence from its third and fourth lines, a returning Pinto armed with the confidence of knowing he can pot 20 goals will be vital to this team’s push for the postseason. One of the things to keep an eye on with Pinto this season will be his work on the penalty kill. Following the departures of Austin Watson, Dylan Gambrell, and Tyler Motte, shorthanded minutes will need to be reallocated. One of the benefactors of those responsibilities should be Pinto.

Dominik Kubalik

As the lone NHL piece that was returned to the Senators in this offseason’s Alex DeBrincat trade, Dominik Kubalik is a reasonably priced player who offers the Senators affordable depth scoring. He is in the last year of a two-year deal carrying an AAV of $2.5 million. In 81 games with the Red Wings last season, he scored 20 goals and 45 points. Brady Tkachuk is entrenched as the team’s first-line left winger, but beyond that, the second line could be open. If Vladimir Tarasenko plays on his preferred off-side, it could necessitate Giroux or Batherson moving to their off-side to accommodate him. The alternative is Kubalik because of his natural left-shot handedness. If he does, there is a chance for Kubalik to flourish. He finished third on the Red Wings in individual expected goals for per 60 (0.81 ixG/60) and individual scoring chances per 60 (7.71 iSCF/60) per NaturalStatTrick. He thrived playing alongside Dylan Larkin and David Perron. Away from Detroit’s top talent, the underlying numbers cratered. Something to keep an eye on is if Kubalik winds up on a line with Tarasenko. The Senators’ forward group is not exactly renowned for its defensive aptitude and their two biggest additions in Kubalik and Tarasenko are not going to bolster that weakness. They could exacerbate it.

Mathieu Joseph

It is never ideal to be referenced in the same breath as the infamous Bill Muckalt, but Mathieu Joseph was the only Senator forward to log more than 500 minutes of ice time who failed to score a five-on-five goal in 2022-23. According to NaturalStatTrick’s data, of the 382 forwards who logged more than 500 minutes of five-on-five ice time, only two forwards failed to score one goal last season: Montreal’s Jake Evans and Joseph. It was a precipitous drop in offence. Following his trade to the Senators at last year’s trade deadline, Joseph averaged 3.89 points per 60 minutes of ice time. Being an 11-game sample, it was naive to believe that this brief stretch was truly representative of his offensive upside. Last season’s output of three goals and 15 points was incredibly disappointing for Sens management after they locked him up to a three-year contract worth a $2.9 million AAV. Without any even-strength production out of Joseph, it really hurts the Senators’ secondary scoring. Hopefully, the return of Shane Pinto to the third line will boost Joseph’s productivity. Fortunately for the Senators, while Joseph struggled to produce offensively, he is still a competent defensive forward and a valuable contributor on the penalty kill that ranked in the top half of the league last season.

Defence

Thomas Chabot

The 2022-23 season was a polarizing one that showcased the best and worst of Thomas Chabot. Often last season, he would take heat for his defensive play and lapses. The numbers backed it up. According to Evolving-Hockey’s Total Defence (DEF) metric that combines the even strength and shorthanded contributions to arrive at a single number for defensive value created, 2022-23 was tied for being the worst defensive season of his career. The good news is that the site’s Total Offence (OFF) metric, which combines even strength and power play contributions measured 2022-23 as being his best offensive year – surpassing his impressive 2018-19 season in which he scored 14 goals and 55 points. One of the things that hurt Chabot last year is that he logged more than 30 minutes of ice time with eight defensive partners last season – including 257 with an ineffective Nikita Zaitsev, one of the least valuable defencemen in the league. Even with poor defensive partners and a lack of continuity, Chabot was rated as the team’s most valuable player according to according to Evolving-Hockey’s ‘wins above replacement’ (WAR) and ‘goals above replacement’ (GAR) metrics. It speaks to his importance in Ottawa’s puck movement and transition game. A full season alongside Jakob Chychrun will inevitably make things easier for Chabot and improve his numbers, but the Senators will need him to be more reliable for the team to take a step forward.

Jakob Chychrun

It took time, but the Senators finally addressed their need for a top-four defenceman by acquiring Jakob Chychrun at the 2023 trade deadline. A lower-body injury limited Chychrun to 12 games with Ottawa, but in those games, he averaged 21 minutes of ice time scoring two goals and adding three assists. Most of his minutes were spent playing with Travis Hamonic to some underwhelming 5-on-5 shot and goal metrics. When they were on the ice together, the Senators generated 48.9 percent of the goals (GF%), 40 percent of the expected goals (xGF%), 43.8 percent of the shots (CF%) and 44.2 percent of the shots on goal per Evolving-Hockey. Fortunately, Chychrun is expected to open the season playing alongside Thomas Chabot. In a very small sample size of 35 minutes of five-on-five ice time, the duo was exceptional – generating approximately 60 percent of the shots and expected goals. A wrinkle is that Ottawa’s three most talented defencemen are all natural left shots. Chychrun has experience playing his off-side, so that mitigates most of the concern, but he has missed 152 games across his seven seasons in the league. With so much invested in Chychrun being the solution to shore the blue line, if he needs to play his natural side or continues to be plagued by injuries, it could really hamper the team’s postseason aspirations.

Jake Sanderson

When Jake Sanderson was selected with the fifth overall selection in 2020, it created some ripples and consternation. Was he the best available defenceman? Should the Senators have targeted another highly skilled forward? Sanderson’s rookie campaign erased any concerns about his selection. He contributed four goals and 32 points in 77 games last season. Only Owen Power recorded more points as a rookie defenceman than Sanderson. Where he thrived was on the defensive side of the puck. His elite skating ability, gap control and active stick made life frustrating for attacking forwards. Perhaps the most flattering thing that you can say about Sanderson’s play last season is that he helped land veteran Travis Hamonic a new two-year contract. The pair logged over 500 minutes of five-on-five ice time together and the results were average. When this pairing was on the ice, the Senators generated as many shots and expected goals as the opposition (50.5 CF%, 49.5 xGF%). They did however give up a greater percentage of actual goals (42.9 GF%), but that can be attributed in part to bad luck. Sanderson is expected to play with Artem Zub this season. In 239 five-on-five minutes together, the Senators generated more of the shots (52.7 SF%) and expected goals (53.3 xGF%). Most impressively, the team suppressed a lot more shots when this pairing was together. Put in contrast with the Sanderson/Hamonic pairing which allowed 33.6 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five, the Sanderson/Zub pairing allowed 24.9.

Artem Zub

Since joining the Senators from SKA Saint Petersburg of the KHL in 2020, Artem Zub has developed a steadfast reputation for being the Senators’ best defensive defenceman. It is that reputation that earned the 27-year-old a four-year contract extension worth an AAV of $4.6 million. And, it is a reputation that is backed up by the data. Using HockeyViz’s data that measures a player’s isolated offensive and defensive impacts, no Senators defenceman had a more significant defensive impact than Zub. Evolving-Hockey’s total defence metric (DEF) had Zub ranked second on the team behind Erik Brannstrom, but injuries limited Zub to 53 games last season - robbing him of the chance to accrue more value. Historically, Zub has always been a player who makes those around him better and in 2023-24, he will be tasked with trying to get more performance and development out of sophomore Jake Sanderson. Considering how well Sanderson fared in his first season playing meaningful minutes carrying Travis Hamonic, the likelihood of Sanderson helping push Zub to a career year feels very real.

Goaltending

Joonas Korpisalo

The rebuilding Ottawa Senators have made it clear in the last few years – goaltenders who are moving on from old teams have a place with the Atlantic Division underdogs, and there’s plenty of time in their rebuild window to be patient with anyone needing a little extra time to get their game back on track. For former Columbus Blue Jackets tandem starter Joonas Korpisalo, it’s the perfect place – out of the public eye, and with a team that’s been slowly but surely turning things around – to prove that he still has an NHL-capable game and establish himself as a number one outside of the free-falling Blue Jackets.

Korpisalo stylistically looked like the less reliable option in Columbus, with a game that relies almost too much on flat angles and post coverage in a way that opened up holes and made him easy to predict. But while Elvis Merzlikins had the flashier game, Korpisalo was the team’s better option last year – and he showed during a brief stint post-trade deadline with the Los Angeles Kings that he might be predictable, but he’s reliable. He struggles at times with rebounds, but his tracking is effective – and for the Senators, the most important thing is that he’s both still relatively young (he’s only 29) and he has a fairly good track record of staying healthy. After multiple years of bad injury luck, the Senators should count it as a win if Korpisalo is even league average while maintaining his reputation as a goaltender who won’t go down for most of the year.

Projected starts: 45-50

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – OTTAWA SENATORS – NHL Player Profiles

Graeme Nichols – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 20:48:07 +0000

OTTAWA, ON - NOVEMBER 14: Ottawa Senators Defenceman Thomas Chabot (72) keeps a close eye on the play during third period National Hockey League action between the Calgary Flames and Ottawa Senators on November 14, 2021, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Brady Tkachuk

Brady Tkachuk’s reputation as power forward and net-front presence is renowned after just four seasons in the league. He is the only player in the league to finish in the top-10 in both hits (270, 5^th) and shots on goal (288, 10^th). His willingness to go to the dirty areas of the ice is what spurs his incredibly high volume of shots. Across all situations, NaturalStatTrick’s data had Tkachuk finishing 13^th amongst league forwards in shots per 60 minutes of ice-time. With most of these shots occurring around the goal mouth, it not surprising to learn that only five players in the league had a higher expected goals per 60 minutes of ice-time rate than Tkachuk last season. That kind of volume in such a dangerous area will lead to great results, so it was not a surprise to see Tkachuk record his first career 30-goal season and set a career high in goals and points (67). Like a few of Ottawa’s other young forwards, one area of growth that needs to improve is Tkachuk’s defensive impact. According to HockeyViz.com’s isolated defensive impact, Tkachuk rates poorly creating 0.16 expected goals against per 60 minutes of ice-time. Evolving-Hockey’s ‘Total Defence’ (DEF) metric that combines even-strength and shorthanded impact rated Tkachuk as having the team’s lowest mark (-3.7) amongst its forwards. Unfortunately, what makes Brady a special player could be working against him inside the defensive zone. If he can reign some of that aggressiveness in, it may lead to more structured team defence that benefits everyone.

Josh Norris

The best thing that Josh Norris did in the last calendar year was bet on himself. Rather than negotiate a contract with a year left on his entry-level contract, Norris decided to wait until this summer to open discussions. It paid off as the centre exploded setting career highs in goals (35) and points (55). Armed with a new eight-year pact carrying an AAV of $7.95 million, the pressure will be on Norris to replicate or even improve upon last season’s numbers. There may be concern he is due for regression simply because of his 20.3 shooting percentage. There are a few reasons to be optimistic his production will not diminish. The biggest reason is because Norris’ shot is a weapon. Last season’s mark is not far removed from his 2020-21 shooting percentage (17.7), but Norris really showcased what he could do when given time and space on the power play. Of the forwards who logged over 100 minutes of power play ice time per NaturalStatTrick.com, only two forwards averaged a higher goals per 60 minutes of ice time than Josh Norris – Chris Kreider and Leon Draisaitl. Not surprisingly, those were the only two forwards who bested Norris’ 16 power play goals on the season. Even if teams adjust their coverage and target Norris, the hope is that the addition of Alex DeBrincat on the opposing flank keep the opposition honest. Norris can overcome regression by shooting more and as the team continues to improve around him, the hope is that Ottawa will spend more time in the offensive zone creating more opportunities for Norris and the rest of Ottawa’s young core.

Drake Batherson

If Josh Norris cashed in at the right time, Drake Batherson just missed out on his chance. After inking a six-year contract carrying a $4.975 million last summer, Batherson was Ottawa’s most productive player (13 G, 34 Pts in 31 GP) when a collision with Buffalo goaltender Aaron Dell put him on the shelf for two months with a high ankle sprain. That injury forced Batherson to miss playing in his first NHL All-Star Game. Batherson would return in March to tally eight goals and 16 points in his final 22 games. He finished second on the team in points per 60 minutes of ice-time (3.03) trailing only Mathieu Joseph who only played in 11 games. Batherson’s progression as a producer makes his six-year extension a bargain and with the salary cap ceiling expected to rise within two years, that contract will continue to pay dividends down the road. Like Tkachuk, Batherson’s defensive play could use some improvement, but the hope is that as the team improves around them, their defensive performance will improve. The Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson line often received the toughest matchups while playing in front of one of the league’s worst defensive units. The additions of DeBrincat and Giroux will bolster the scoring depth and create matchup problems but improving the quality of the blue line would do wonders to boost the defensive metrics of Ottawa’s forwards.

Alex DeBrincat

In one of the most unanticipated and biggest moves of the offseason, the Senators went out and acquired a 24-year-old Alex DeBrincat who scored 41 goals last season. The Senators sent the seventh overall selection in 2022 and a second and third-round pick to the Blackhawks for one of the league’s most prodigious goal scorers over the past five seasons. In that span of time, only six players have scored more goals than Alex DeBrincat (160). And, only seven players have scored more power-play goals than DeBrincat’s 33. The Senators will be counting heavily on DeBrincat to give the team two dangerous lines and help boost a first power play unit that almost relied exclusively on feeding Josh Norris to create offence. If there is any genuine concern about DeBrincat’s play, it is going to stem from how he will fare after he logged significant minutes playing alongside one of the league’s most dynamic offensive players in Patrick Kane. Last season DeBrincat’s underlying metrics were worse when he played away from Kane, but across a larger sample of data, he surprisingly fared better. According to NaturalStatTrick’s last three seasons worth of data, the Hawks actually generated a greater percentage of expected goals and scoring chances when DeBrincat did not play with Kane. Although it is true that the Senators currently do not have a dynamic offensive talent like Kane, stylistically speaking, the hope is that Tim Stützle can eventually provide many of the similar elements.

Tim Stützle

Tim Stützle’s 2021-22 campaign was characterized by two acts. The first begins with Stützle playing on the wing. Thanks to the return of Colin White and the emergence of Shane Pinto, Stützle returned to the left wing. The prevailing belief was that fewer defensive responsibilities and a green light to fly the zone would create chances and protect his development. Through his first 16 games however, that philosophy clearly was not working. Stützle only scored one goal while recording 32 shots. Injuries to White and Pinto created the opportunity Stützle needed to transition to centre in late November. Once there, he never looked back. Having more defensive responsibility made him a more engaged player and more puck touches played to Stützle’s strengths. His skill and elusiveness carrying the puck meant more controlled entries and more opportunities to create chances. It also allowed Stützle to draw a significant volume of penalties. Only Connor McDavid (50) and Pierre-Luc Dubois (50) drew more penalties than Stützle’s 45. From March onward, Stützle’s game and confidence grew. He averaged more than a point-per-game while playing predominantly with Alex Formenton and Connor Brown. After the ‘Summer of Pierre’ brought in Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux, Stützle’s quality of linemates improved significantly. If there is a wart to Stützle’s game, it is his faceoff prowess. Of the forwards to take more than 400 draws, Stützle’s 38.3 percent success rate was the league’s fourth-worst mark. Adding Claude Giroux and his 60.3 percent success rate will ease that burden and hopefully allow this line to gain control and create more offensive chances earlier in shifts.

Claude Giroux

After months of rumours speculated on Claude Giroux’s interest in returning home, the star forward put pen to paper minutes after unrestricted free agency opened and signed a three-year contract ($6.5 million AAV). Giroux will turn 35-years-old next January, but despite being in his mid-30’s, he is still an impactful player. In 75 games between the Flyers and Panthers, the forward contributed 21 goals and 44 assists. Even if there is some age-related decline in production, his ability to impact the game at both ends of the ice will be a huge addition to the Senators’ lineup that has lacked a significant two-way presence since Mark Stone was dealt to Vegas. Last season at five-on-five, his teams generated 55.04-percent of the total shots (CF%), 57.32-percent of the goals (GF%) and 54.48-percent of the expected goals (xGF%). Not only will Giroux’s on-ice performance help insulate the young core that management has put together, but as a former captain who has experienced success in this league — a Hart Trophy finalist in 2013-14; a 7-time NHL All-Star, a second-team NHL All-Star in 2017-18 — his experiences, leadership and intangibles are going to play a pivotal role in helping develop this team’s young core.

Alex Formenton

Alex Formenton has played parts of the last four seasons in Ottawa, but the 2021-22 campaign represented his first full season with the Senators.In 79 games, the speedy left winger scored 18 goals while adding 14 assists. Per NaturalStatTrick, Formenton (8.19) finished second on the Senators in five-on-five shots per 60 minutes of ice-time behind only Brady Tkachuk (9.26). Considering how Formenton played in a third line checking role and spent a lot of time in his own end defending (47.04 CF%), it speaks volumes about how he creates offence. Almost all of it is done exclusively through his skating. As one of the league’s fastest skaters, the majority of Formenton’s offence is created off the rush. The individual chances he creates off are electric and easily perceptible, but right now, they limit his upside to a third-line, penalty killing specialist role. On the penalty kill, Formenton thrived. Per NaturalStatTrick’s shorthanded data, of the skaters who logged more than 100 minutes of shorthanded ice-time, only four skaters averaged a higher individual expected goal rate per 60 minutes (ixG/60) than Formenton. For a penalty kill group that lost big contributors like Connor Brown and Nick Paul, Formenton will be relied upon heavily. His speed makes him a dynamic threat, but Formenton to take his game to another level, he needs to add to his toolbox and find ways to create more offence through sustained offensive zone pressure. From January on last season, Formenton showcased flashes displaying an improved awareness and ability to create offensively, but until it happens more consistently, he will probably be best served in a depth role.

Mathieu Joseph

After being traded to the Ottawa Senators at last year’s trade deadline for Nick Paul, Mathieu Joseph was a relevation to the Senators in the 11 games that he played. The Senators saw enough in Joseph to reward him with a relatively inexpensive four-year extension worth $11.8 million ($2.95 million AAV). In an admittedly small sample size of games, Joseph averaged 3.89 points per 60 minutes of ice-time in a Senators jersey. He benefited from his career-high 21.1 shooting percentage, so there will likely be some regression there. Like the aforementioned Formenton, there were some concerns that Joseph was more of a slasher in terms of how he generated offence. He would use his speed and defensive acumen to create individual rush chances that would never really result in sustained offensive zone pressure. Fortunately, Joseph’s 7.01 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time represented a career-high for him and it is an encouraging sign that Joseph can recreate some of the offensive touch that he showcased down the stretch. In just his short time in Ottawa, Joseph demonstrated that he could be an exceptional penalty killer and with the departures of Nick Paul and Connor Brown, he will play a prominent role there.

Austin Watson

A favourite of head coach D.J. Smith, Austin Watson had one of his best NHL seasons. The veteran right winger reached double-digits goal mark (10) for only the second time in his eight-year career while recording 16 points. On the ice, Watson is somewhat of a throwback archetypical fourth line winger. He is relied upon to provide intangibles and a physical presence to a roster that is overflowing with young talent. Although the dynamics of the league have changed in the modern era, the Senators still place a value on having a player like Watson around to protect its young talent. To only portray Watson in that way is unfair however, because he draws a ton of penalties and has become a valued member of the team’s penalty kill. NaturalStatTrick’s numbers show that only Tim Stützle has a higher drawn penalty rate than Watson. And according to HockeyViz.com’s isolated impact data, when Watson was on the ice while the team was shorthanded, he positively influenced the team’s expected goals allowed rate (-0.37 xGA/60). After losing a few valued members of a penalty kill unit that finished with the league’s 11^th-highest penalty kill success rate (83.9%), Watson is going to factor heavily into this season’s success.

DEFENSE

Thomas Chabot

Thomas Chabot is the lynchpin of the Senators’ defence and was the team’s most valuable player last season according to Evolving-Hockey.com’s ‘Wins Above Replacement’ (WAR) metric. Chabot’s WAR (3.0) led all Senators skaters and was the league’s eighth-highest mark amongst all defencemen – which really shows how strong his season was considering he was limited to 59 games because of a broken hand. Chabot finished his season contributing seven goals and 38 points while finishing only behind only Seth Jones (26:13) in average ice-time per game (26:12). Like every season, how impactful Chabot can be, may be mitigated by his defensive partner. Barring a trade this offseason, the Senators’ weakest defensive position is its right side. Chabot’s most common partner at five-on-five last season was Artyom Zub. When on the ice together, the Senators generated a greater share of the five-on-five goals (55.64 GF%) and expected goals (53.10 xGF%) per Evolving-Hockey. If Smith moves Zub around to have two stronger pairings, it could negatively impact Chabot’s numbers if he has to log significant minutes alongside Travis Hamonic or Nikita Zaitsev. If there is one area of improvement for Chabot, it is that he is not an impactful power play performer. Despite the first power play unit’s talent level and Chabot’s ability to distribute the puck, he has never been a dangerous power play performer.

Artyom Zub

Zub has developed a cult following in Ottawa not only because of his name is fun to say when he touches the puck at the Canadian Tire Centre, but because he has asserted himself and quickly become the team’s best defensive defenceman. In fact, he may be one of the better defensive defencemen in the league. According to Evolving-Hockey’s ‘Total Defence’ (DEF) metric that combines all even strength and shorthanded contributions, only 15 defencemen in the league had a higher defensive impact than Zub’s 5.7. He will never bring fans out of their seats with a devastating hit, but Zub’s gap control and active stick allow him to disrupt plays before they evolve into dangerous chances. Coupled with his ability to consistently move the puck and it is easy to understand why he makes the players around him better. With so much riding on the performance and development of Jake Sanderson, it is this stabilizing presence that could lead the Senators to utilizing him as an insulator to ensure that the rookie’s career gets off to a fantastic start.

Travis Hamonic

At the recommendation of assistant coach Jack Capuano who was familiar with Travis Hamonic from their time on Long Island, the Senators unexpectedly acquired the defenceman from the Vancouver Canucks at the 2022 NHL trade deadline. Rather than wait to see what the offseason market would bring, Pierre Dorion moved to avoid the possibility that he would come away emptyhanded in the summer. In 19 games for the Senators, Hamonic scored one goal and added two assists while recording a +5 rating. One of the interesting dynamics in the Ottawa market is that Hamonic is often viewed positively for his contributions to the team down the stretch. Some of that probably has to do with the Senators’ scoring 51.72 percent of all the total five-on-five goals while Hamonic was on the ice. A lot of that is luck dependent. A look into Hamonic’s numbers on NaturalStatTrick.com reveals that the Senators only generated 45.96 percent of the total shots (CF%), 46.11 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), and 44.34 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). All these metrics are worse than his numbers were in Vancouver and if not for the Senators shooting 9.74 percent while he was on the ice, he probably would not be viewed as favorably.

Erik Brannstrom

It feels like every season is a make-or-break year for Erik Brannstrom. After the finish to the 2020-21 campaign looked like it solidified him as a regular, the Senators went out last offseason and acquired Michael Del Zotto and Nick Holden. Brannstrom’s two-way contract worked against him, and he started the season in Belleville. It took some time for Brannstrom to be recalled and dress regularly, but when he did, the numbers were not particularly flattering. As an undersized defenceman who is best known for puck-moving ability, Brannstrom has not consistently demonstrated that he is dynamic or talented enough to offset his limitations as a defender. As a player who struggles to box out, win battles or outmuscle the opposition, Brannstrom needs to find other ways to disrupt plays and create turnovers to help tilt the ice in Ottawa’s favour. In 2021-22, the opposition generated more than 50 percent of the shots, goals, expected goals and scoring chances when Brannstrom was on the ice. The only area where Brannstrom has consistently demonstrated an ability to contribute is on the power play. Chabot’s injury created that opportunity for him, but with Chabot’s return to health and the presence of the well-regarded Jake Sanderson, Brannstrom may not get the chance to showcase his puck distribution skills again. And if those power play opportunities become limited, or the organization prefers to place veterans like Nick Holden, Travis Hamonic and Nikita Zaitsev ahead of Brannstrom on the depth chart, the former highly touted prospect may not be long for the organization.

GOALTENDING

Cam Talbot

It’s unlikely that Cam Talbot expected the Minnesota Wild to deal for another starter last year, and it seems even less likely that he expected the team to re-sign the older option in Marc-Andre Fleury when Talbot himself was clearly still available to navigate the ship this upcoming season. So although both Talbot and the Wild have stressed that it wasn’t per his request, it seems likely that there’s a sense of relief for the netminder after he was dealt to the Ottawa Senators to take over in their tandem for the recently-moved Matt Murray.

The trade may have pushed Talbot from a clear playoff contender to a fringe Wild Card roster, but it’s a very apparent upgrade for the team itself. Where Matt Murray still seemed to be struggling to shake some of his bad habits as the team’s reclamation project over the last few years, Talbot has very obviously cleaned his game up in the aftermath of his tumultuous tenure with the Edmonton Oilers. Gone are the days where he’d play stretches of games just a few inches off angle from oncoming shots; instead, he’s back to being a goaltender who sits in the middle of his crease and waits for shots to dictate how much he needs to move, with good tracking sense and a seemingly unshakeable demeanor no matter what the score looks like on the jumbotron above the ice. That’s good news for both the Senators and his new tandem partner Anton Forsberg, who is still in the early years of his own redemption story arc and could use a more stabilizing presence to work alongside.

Projected starts: 45-50

Anton Forsberg

Anyone who has followed Anton Forsberg’s career since his tenure in Columbus will find it hard not to root for the veteran netminder this year. After a confidence-draining stint with the Chicago Blackhawks that saw him suddenly asked to shoulder a substantial workload, he ended up bouncing around for a few years at the AHL level with scattered NHL starts peppered in throughout – and slowly but surely, he managed to shake the bad habits he developed during the Chicago season and re-establish himself as a technically structured, quietly fun netminder with plenty of promise. His game gives off the impression that the development coaches he worked with from 2018 to 2021 stripped his technique down to the basics and built him back up again; he spends less time trying to settle in to get centered for an oncoming shot, which frees him up to make quick adjustments instead of having to course-correct and then snag deflections. His confidence paid off, too; although he hadn’t played in a statistically significant volume of games since the 2017-18 NHL season, Ottawa was pleased enough with his performance in limited games during the 2020-21 season to bring him into the fold to tandem with Matt Murray last season. And even playing behind a rebuilding Senators roster, which could have resulted in a season that mimicked Forsberg’s panic-driven Chicago year in 2017, the 29-year-old Swedish netminder managed to clearly emerge as the team’s best option; he posted a .917 save percentage in all situations over 46 games, recording quality starts in 67 percent of those and earning his first career NHL shutout in the process. Now, he’ll split the helm with veteran Cam Talbot as Ottawa attempts to take a step forward – and although it seemed nearly impossible to imagine two or three years ago, that could be the catalyst behind a re-emergence of the Atlantic Division club as a legitimate Wild Card contender this spring.

Projected starts: 35-40

Fit The Bill – Calgary Flames 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:27:42 +0000

Review/State of Play - Expectations were running high in Calgary heading into the season. They had made the playoffs in coach Glen Gulutzan first year after missing for six of the previous seven seasons. An emerging young core and some additions on defense (Travis Hamonic) and goal (Mike Smith) meant to push the team further, costing them draft picks and ultimately not drafting until the fourth round in the 2018 NHL Draft.

The team collapsed down the stretch only winning 12 of their final 36 games in a crushing disappointment. Coach Gulutzan was fired as a result, replaced by Bill Peters in the off season. He comes from the Hurricanes featuring a strong possession game.

Offensively they struggled finishing 27^th in the league for goals for and the third worst power play in the league. Their supposed team strength with an enviable defense group they allowed the 10^th lowest shots against in the NHL, but 13^th worst in goals against of 2.96 per game. Smith was not the answer in net. Brian Burke having moved on and a new coach, GM Brad Treliving decided to blow things up with a blockbuster trade.

Blockbuster blow up - They moved their leading scoring defender in Dougie Hamilton (17 goals and 44 points – tied for the league lead in goals), in a package with Bill Peters old team that netted them Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin. Leaving with Hamilton was Michael Ferland who played primarily with Gaudreau and Monahan and promising prospect Adam Fox. Replacing Ferland will either be Lindholm or James Neal, acquired through free agency.

Hamilton’s departure leaves a big hole as he and Giordano formed one of the best duo’s in the league. Hanifin is only 21 years old and contributed 10 goals and 32 points in his third NHL season. A high draft pick, he may benefit from the mentoring of either captain Mike Giordano or steady Travis Hamonic – allowing him to develop with some insurance. The Flames still boast a strong defensive corps of Giordan, T.J Brodie, Hamonic and Michael Stone without Hamilton and the upgrade on the wing was crucial to improving the offense. Hamonic was a disappointment in his first season, but a year of acclimatization should help. Brodie also regressed, along with others, and chemistry with Hamonic did not come. Peters will bring a new approach, but has a tool set to work with.

Elias Lindholm, 23 years old signed a six-year extension ($4.85 AAV) with the Flames after being acquired locking him up through his prime. Peters familiarity with both players (Hanifin remains an RFA for the moment) may have been key – and the signing reinforced his confidence in Lindholm. He can play either center or right wing giving some options to the coach.

CALGARY, AB - FEBRUARY 01: Calgary Flames Center Sean Monahan (23) takes a break during a game between the Calgary Flames and the Minnesota Wild on February 01, 2017, at the Scotiabank Saddledome, in Calgary AB. (Photo by Jose Quiroz/Icon Sportswire)

Offensive retooling - Up front hey have budding superstars in Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, with Matthew Tkachuk emerging last season with 24 goals. Neal and Lindholm fill in a void on right wing to go with strength on the left side in Gaudreau and Tkachuk.

The added depth down the middle signing 31-year-old Derek Ryan, who also played with Peters in Carolina, in free agency to a three-year contract ($3.125 AAV). He contributed 15 goals last season and as importantly won 56.5% of his faceoffs taking the second most on the team and led the regulars on Carolina in CF% with 56.55% - and third in the league for players over 1000 minutes - interestingly behind Dougie Hamilton and Mark Giordano. Peters is a possession guy and Ryan improves his team in that area.

A disappointing season from 22-year-old Sam Bennett and 23-year-old Curtis Lazar. Bennett contributed only 11 goals and 15 assists in his third NHL season and Lazar acquired from Ottawa with some contributed two goals in 65 games and endured some really challenging stretches. They are both young enough to turn it around, but the organization must be anxious for signs of development. 23-year-old Mark Jankowski contributed 17 goals and played a regular shift last season. He has played well in the NCAA and the AHL and the team has been patient in his development and is considered an important piece of the near future. Austin Czarnik signed as a free agent for two years ($1.25 million AAV) and the Flames hope he can contribute after finishing third in the AHL in scoring last year.

The rest of the forward group is solid with 29-year-old Mikael Backlund emerging as one of the best two-way centers in the league and was rewarded with a six- year contract ($5.35 million AAV). He, Matthew Tkachuck and Michael Frolik were teamed together most of last season and represent a strong shut down line that can provide timely scoring.

In net Mike Smith has one more year on his contract at $4.25 million. Smith can be brilliant and was to start the season contributing to the optimism in Calgary. Unfortunately the Flames fortune would follow his. He had groin issues to end the season and his GAA ballooned to 3.45 and his save percentage was 0.896 after the all-star break. Goal remains an enormous question mark.

Outlook - The Flames are young and developing still and have a mature defense group that ranks against most in the NHL. If Smith can be heroic, they could be a very good team this season. A playoff spot should be the goal and attainable.