Tyler Motte – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Fallout from the NHL trade deadline, not just from the players that moved, like Claude Giroux, Marc-Andre Fleury, Mark Giordano, and Max Domi, but also those that remain with potentially new opportunities

Scott Cullen — Fri, 25 Mar 2022 13:30:46 +0000

20 FANTASY POINTS

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, fallout from the NHL trade deadline, not just from the players that moved, like Claude Giroux, Marc-Andre Fleury, Mark Giordano, and Max Domi, but also those that remain with potentially new opportunities for the rest of the season.

MONTREAL, QC - MARCH 24: Florida Panthers right wing Claude Giroux (28) plays the puck during the Florida Panthers versus the Montreal Canadiens game on March 24, 2022 at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)

#1 The big ticket forward to move prior to the deadline was Claude Giroux, who has been a premier scorer in Philadelphia for a long time, surpassing 1,000 games with the Flyers just last week. Giroux is going to score. Since 2010-2011, there are three players with more points than Giroux’s 828 points (in 875 games): Patrick Kane, Sidney Crosby, and Alex Ovechkin. He has moved to the right wing on Philadelphia’s top line, skating with Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe, a good opportunity to keep the points flowing. Owen Tippett went to Philadelphia in this deal, and it should give him a better opportunity to play regularly as he auditions this season for a spot with next year’s team. Tippett had 33 points (14 G, 19 A) in 94 games for Florida, averaging less than 12 minutes of ice time per game. In three games with Philadephia, Tippett has averaged 17 minutes per game.

#2 With Giroux gone to Florida and Sean Couturier out for the season with a back injury, Kevin Hayes is the No. 1 center in Philadelphia. He has nine points (4 G, 5 A) and 15 shots on goal in the past six games and has played more than 20 minutes in three of his past four games.

#3 The Toronto Maple Leafs turned to Seattle for veteran defenseman Mark Giordano and right winger Colin Blackwell. Giordano had 23 points in 55 games for the Kraken, but that included a team-leading eight power play assists. Vince Dunn, who leads Seattle defensemen with 27 points (7 G, 20 A), is the top candidate for more power play time on the point in Seattle. In Toronto, Giordano started playing with Timothy Liljegren but there is always the potential of Giordano getting reunited with T.J. Brodie, with whom he was frequently partnered when both were with the Calgary Flames. As for Blackwell, he was not playing a lot in Seattle and started on the fourth line in Toronto, but he is a depth forward with some upside. He ranked sixth among Seattle forwards with 1.70 points per 60 minutes of 5v5 play this season and had shown in spurts with the Rangers last season that he can contribute offensively.

#4 There was some doubt about whether goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury would even want to move but he gave the green light for his trade from Chicago to Minnesota and that does make Fleury more appealing than he was with a Blackhawks team that was not winning a whole lot. In Minnesota, Fleury gets to play behind a stronger team and the wins should come more easily. Fleury’s arrival in Minnesota does put a limit on the appeal of Cam Talbot, who had been the Wild starter in net but then he effectively slumped his way out of the job. Talbot will likely play more than a run-of-the-mill backup but also probably less than a standard starting goaltender, which could sewer his fantasy value. With Fleury leaving the Windy City, Kevin Lankinen should get most of the starts for Chicago the rest of the way but that’s not going to be a big help to the Blackhawks. Lankinen had a .931 save percentage in his first dozen games for Chicago last season and in 43 games since then, his save percentage is .896.

#6 With the Wild shuffling goaltenders, that left Kaapo Kahkonen as the odd man out and he was dealt to San Jose for defenseman Jacob Middleton. Kahkonen had a .907 save percentage in 54 games for the Wild across the past three seasons, but the 25-year-old might have a chance to earn a long-term role in San Jose. Veteran James Reimer is still San Jose’s starter but with Adin Hill injured, Kahkonen can establish himself and maybe get a leg up on a competition for the starting job next season, especially if Reimer gets moved.

#7 The Carolina Hurricanes brought in Max Domi from Columbus and while the idea is that he might be able to offer some secondary scoring, he started his time with the Hurricanes skating alongside Derek Stepan and Jesperi Kotkaniemi on Carolina’s fourth line. Not ideal for his fantasy value. With Domi gone, there might be more of an opportunity for wingers Yegor Chinakov and Emil Bemstrom, as well as Alexandre Texier when he returns from a finger injury.

#8 Having lost their entire third line in the offseason, the Tampa Bay Lightning were not afraid to pay a big price at the deadline to shore up those holes in the lineup. Tampa Bay made a trade with Chicago for Brandon Hagel and with Ottawa for Nick Paul. Although Paul scored in his Lightning debut and has a career-high 12 goals this season, he is not likely to have much fantasy appeal. Hagel is more interesting. The 23-year-old has erupted for 21 goals in 57 games in his second NHL season, but that goal total should come with a massive grain of salt. Hagel has scored on 22.1% of his shots this season and that is unlikely to last for even the greatest snipers and, with all due respect, Hagel is not one of the all-time greatest snipers.

#9 The wingers going to Chicago in the Hagel trade, Taylor Raddysh and Boris Katchouk, will get a chance to prove that they are NHLers. Raddysh is a 24-year-old power forward who had 12 points (5 G, 7 A) in 53 games for the Lightning but has scored four points (2 G, 2 A) in his first three games with the Blackhawks. Katchouk was a part-time player for Tampa Bay, contributing six points (3 G, 3 A) in 38 games. He is still battling for a regular spot in the lineup, but that opportunity is better for him in Chicago than it was in Tampa Bay.

#10 A proven shot generator whose shooting percentage finally started to come around this season, Rickard Rakell is a major addition to the Pittsburgh Penguins lineup. Since 2017-2018, Rakell has averaged 2.83 shots on goal per game, which ranks 44^th in the league. In the past three seasons, though, Rakell had trouble converting, scoring on just 8.0% of his shots, before percentages turned back in his favor this season and he had 16 goals in 51 games for the Ducks, scoring on 11.8% of his shots. The expectation is that he will ultimately have a chance to skate alongside Evgeni Malkin on the Penguins’ second line, but in his first couple of games with the Penguins, Rakell has played more with Jeff Carter and Kasperi Kapanen, also seeing some time on Sidney Crosby’s wing. In a depleted Ducks lineup, after Rakell’s departure, Derek Grant and Dominik Simon were skating on Trevor Zegras’ wings while Zach Aston-Reese and Gerry Mayhew were on the flanks of Adam Henrique. None of those wingers are particularly appealing for fantasy purposes, even with suddenly bigger roles.

#11 The Ducks were busy, also dealing defenseman Hampus Lindholm to the Boston Bruins. Lindholm had 22 points (5 G, 17 A) in 61 games for the Ducks, and his career high was 34 points in the 2014-2015 season, he still played a major role on the Anaheim blueline and those minutes will have to get absorbed, so Simon Benoit and Brendan Guhle are candidates for more playing time. In Boston, Lindholm has joined Charlie McAvoy on the Bruins’ top pair.

#12 The Washington Capitals dipped into their past, acquiring Marcus Johansson from the Seattle Kraken. Johansson started his career in Washington, from 2010-2011 through 2016-2017 but he has played for five more teams since. Johansson had 23 points (6 G, 17 A) in 51 games for Seattle this season but with T.J. Oshie out of the Washington lineup, Johansson landed on the right wing with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznestov. That might not last but, in the short term, it’s a pretty good place to be.

#13 With Johansson one of several departures from Seattle, there will be chances for players to prove their value as NHLers. Daniel Sprong was part of the deal going to Seattle and he has flashed talent, on his way to 41 goals in 187 career games. He scored in his first game for Seattle, recording five shots on goal in just 11:24 of ice time. Karson Kuhlman, Kole Lind, and Morgan Geekie are other Seattle forwards that should see an uptick in ice time down the stretch.

#14 Enjoying a strong season in Montreal, Artturi Lehkonen was an attractive trade candidate, and the Colorado Avalanche were willing to pay for his services, expecting Lehkonen to solidify their middle six forwards. With 29 points (13 G, 16 A) in 58 games for the Canadiens, Lehkonen is just two points off of his career high, set in 2018-2019. With Lehkonen departing there is more room for a veteran forward like Paul Byron to fit into the Montreal lineup but that does not offer much fantasy appeal.

#15 Montreal did secure the services of defenseman Justin Barron from the Avalanche in the Lehkonen trade. A first-round pick in 2020, Barron appeared in two games for the Avs earlier in the season and had 20 points (5 G, 15 A) in 43 AHL games. Barron will have a chance to become a big part of the Montreal blueline.

#16 One of the most sought-after pending free agent forwards was acquired by the New York Rangers, as they picked up Andrew Copp from the Winnipeg Jets. Copp’s offensive game started to break through last season when he put up a career-high 39 points in 55 games, but he had 35 points (13 G, 22 A) in 56 games for the Jets before the trade and then he had a couple of assists in his Rangers debut. Copp started his Rangers career on a line with Filip Chytil and Dryden Hunt but finished that first game on right wing with Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad. The Rangers also acquired energy winger Tyler Motte from Vancouver and while Motte does not score enough to generate a bunch of fantasy interest, but he does have a very specific fantasy value tied to his hit totals, averaging 2.80 hits per game across the past four seasons.

#17 Even though the Jets decided to trade Copp, they did not give up on their playoff push, however unlikely it might be. The Jets brought back right winger Mason Appleton who was claimed by Seattle in the expansion draft, and the Jets also acquired Zach Sanford from the Ottawa Senators. Neither of these players is as valuable as Copp, but the two wingers are established NHL talent that can play in Winnipeg’s top nine.

#18 Veteran forward Derick Brassard was a low-key addition by the Edmonton Oilers from the Philadelphia Flyers. He had a modest 16 points (6 G, 10 A) in 31 games for the Flyers but might have a little more offensive upside in Edmonton as he started his Oilers career on a line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi.

#19 The St. Louis Blues were looking to shore up their blueline and landed veteran puck mover Nick Leddy from Detroit, sending Oskar Sundqvist and Jake Walman to the Red Wings. Leddy can quarterback a power play, if necessary, and it might be necessary for the Blues as Torey Krug is injured. If Krug is out long-term, that might give Leddy an opening into a bigger role for the Blues. Sundqvist and Walman may not be stars but they are entirely capable of filling regular roles for the Red Wings.

#20 One more Detroit deal. The Red Wings sent versatile forward Vladislav Namestnikov to Dallas. Namestnikov is still going to have to battle for ice time with the Stars, but his departure does help open up ice time for younger options in the Detroit lineup. Joseph Veleno, Michael Rasmussen, and the recently promoted Taro Hirose are some candidates for bigger roles in Detroit.

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – Panthers a fit for Bennett – Tavares, Blackwell, Bonino and Goligoski making late season charges

Scott Cullen — Wed, 21 Apr 2021 21:33:43 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, the Florida Panthers have been a great fit for Sam Bennett. John Tavares, Colin Blackwell, Nick Bonino, and Alex Goligoski are among those making late-season charges.

Jonathan Huberdeau (11) of the Florida Panthers (Photo by Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire)

#1 As Sam Bennett’s time in Calgary came to an end, he was on an atypical four-game point streak, picking up five assists in his last four games for the Flames. Bennett has responded to the trade to Florida by tallying five points (3 G, 2 A) and 15 hits in his first three games for the Panthers. This is the best possible version of Bennett, it appears, and some of that is due to the opportunity he is getting, centering the second line in Florida, between Jonathan Huberdeau and Anthony Duclair.

#2 Huberdeau is a scoring weapon, even away from Aleksander Barkov. Barkov has 2.32 primary points/60 during 5-on-5 play this season, ranking seventh (minimum 500 5-on-5 minutes) behind the likes of Connor McDavid, Artemi Panarin, Auston Matthews, Mark Stone, and Nathan MacKinnon. Oh, that’s only five. All of those superstars are behind Jason Robertson, the Stars rookie who has 2.82 primary points/60 this season.

#3 Where was I? Oh yes, Huberdeau. He ranks 13^th in primary points/60 this season with 2.16 primary points/60, the same rate as Max Pacioretty and Mitch Marner. Since the start of the 2018-2019 season, Huberdeau has 219 points in 198 games, the seventh best total in the league. Not a bad player to have anchoring the second line.

#4 Barkov has been Huberdeau’s most common linemate over the past three seasons but not so much this season. In the past three seasons, the Panthers scored 3.56 goals/60 when Barkov and Huberdeau were on the ice during 5-on-5 play. Huberdeau has not had as much success with his most common linemates this season – Alexander Wennberg (2.77 GF/60) and Patric Hornqvist (2.62 GF/60) – thus the lineup shuffle for the Panthers, bringing in Bennett and moving Duclair to the right side of that line.

#5 Florida Panthers winger Frank Vatrano is low-key one of the premier shot generators in the league. This season, he ranks third, behind Brendan Gallagher and Brady Tkachuk, with 11.8 shots per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play.

#6 Toronto Maple Leafs center John Tavares has been the target of frequent criticism this season, To be fair, when he had 28 points in 37 games, that was pretty far off of his typical point-per-game pace. Since then, though, Tavares has 14 points (6 G, 8 A) and 29 shots on goal in the past nine games, leaving him with 42 points in 46 games. Tavares had 1.97 goals for per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play in the first 37 games, thanks in part to an on-ice shooting percentage of 6.6%. Since then, the Maple Leafs are scoring 4.35 goals/60 with an on-ice shooting percentage of 12.5% with Tavares on the ice. When those percentages flip, the production can change in a hurry.

#7 While the rookie scoring race appears to be between Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov and Dallas’ Jason Robertson, Ottawa Senators center Josh Norris has delivered a stellar rookie campaign. He has eight points (3 G, 5 A) during a five-game point streak and ranks third among rookie scorer with 29 points.

#8 New York Rangers winger Colin Blackwell appears to have secured a spot on the right side with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome. Blackwell does have 12 points (6 G, 6 A) in the past 13 games and Panarin is the only Rangers player who has a higher on-ice scoring rate in those 13 games.

#9 The injury to Zach Hyman could lead to a rough stretch for the Toronto Maple Leafs. He ranks fourth on the team with 0.88 expected goals per 60 minutes this season and over the past three seasons the Maple Leafs score 60.2% of the goals at 5-on-5 with Hyman and Auston Matthews on the ice. Matthews, without Hyman over the past three seasons, has been on the ice for 52.8% of goals during 5-on-5 play.

#10 In a stretch from late January through early April, Minnesota Wild forward Nick Bonino had six points (3 G, 3 A) in 28 games while playing 13:43 per game. Since Aprl 7, Bonino has nine points (2 G, 7 A) in seven games while playing 17:00 per game. He has been getting first-unit power play time recently, even if he is still on the lower half of the Wild depth chart at evens, but it is enough of an opportunity for Bonino to provide some late-season fantasy value, basically where none existed for most of this season.

#11 Arizona Coyotes defenseman Alex Goligoski has had seven seasons with at least 35 points, so he knows how to move the puck and run a power play in the National Hockey League. He was put into a defensive role early this season. After an assist on opening night, he had one assist in his next 31 games. In his past 14 games, Goligoski has 13 points (3 G, 10 A), including four assists on the power play. The bonus with Goligoski is that he is also a shot blocker, with 31 in the past 14 games to give him even more fantasy appeal.

#12 Taken with the eighth pick in the 2017 Draft, Buffalo Sabres center Casey Mittelstadt has had a difficult time making his mark in the National Hockey League. He had nine points in 31 games last season before getting sent down to the American Hockey League and he managed five points (1 G, 4 A) in his first 19 games this season, so that is a modest 14 points in 50 games. In his past dozen games, though, Mittelstadt has 10 points (7 G, 3 A) and is going to play enough the rest of the way because the Sabres need to find out if he can capably fill a role in their top six next season.

#13 Mittelstadt is not the only young Sabres forward who will get big reps down the stretch. 20-year-old rookie Dylan Cozens has been in and out of the lineup with a few injuries this season but since his most recent return to the lineup, Cozens has five assists and 20 shots on goal in six games while playing more than 16 minutes per game. He has also been getting educated in the faceoff circle, winning a meagre 26.5% of his draws in those six games.

#14 The Boston Bruins made one of the best additions at the trade deadline and it may not even be the Taylor Hall deal, although that one was good, too. Defenseman Mike Reilly was exactly what the Bruins needed, a competent puck-moving defenseman who could get out of the defensive zone and let Boston’s forwards go to work. Reilly has three assists in his first five games with the Bruins but has seen a spike in ice time, from 18:36 per game in Ottawa, to 22:31 per game with the Bruins.

#15 A winger who might be known as much for borderline hits as for his hockey acumen, the Blues’ Sammy Blais is making his mark late in the season. He has five points (3 G, 2 A) and 20 hits in the past five games, which takes Blais from relative obscurity to difference-maker status in fantasy hockey. Wingers who can deliver four hits per game are few and far between. Over the full season, Brady Tkachuk, Brandon Tanev, and Tyler Motte are the only three forwards averaging more than four hits per game.

#16 A rookie winger who could be poised for a big finish, Vancouver’s Nils Hoglander showed flashes of potential early in the season after he was a surprise to secure a top-six role for the Canucks but then he went through some dry spells offensively. He’s gearing up a for a big finish, it appears, with seven points (4 G, 3 A) in his past seven games and if the Canucks are indeed going to play out their schedule, they have more games remaining (17) than any other team.

#17 New York Islanders winger Anthony Beauvillier was easy to ignore for most of the season. While he generated 50 shots on goal in his first 22 games, he had just six points (2 G, 4 A). Those shot rates were encouraging but what can you do with six points in 22 games? The right answer, apparently, it to be patient. In his past 15 games, Beauvillier has 13 points (7 G, 6 A) with 27 shots on goal.

#18 Rookie goaltenders have made a difference this season. The Islanders’ Ilya Sorokin stumbled in his first three NHL starts, posting an .871 save percentage. Since then, Sorokin has a .934 save percentage in 14 games, giving him a .922 mark for the season. Carolina’s Alex Nedeljkovic has a .932 save percentage in 17 starts. The Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin at .920 and Dallas’ Jake Oettinger, with a .919 save percentage, have had an impact, as well as Chicago’s Kevin Lankinen. He has cooled off but still has a .911 save percentage in 33 starts.

#19 Among the smaller sample sizes, and looking to the future for goaltenders, Boston’s Jeremy Swayman has a .938 save percentage in his first five starts and Florida’s Spencer Knight won his NHL debut, stopping 33 of 34 shots against Columbus Tuesday.

#20 The hype machine is ready and waiting for Montreal Canadiens right winger Cole Caufield, the 15^th pick in the 2019 Draft, who shredded the NCAA this season, with 52 points (30 G, 22 A) in 31 games at Wisconsin before scoring four points (3 G, 1 A) in his first two AHL games. Now, he appears to be knocking on the door for a late-season audition in Montreal and, with Brendan Gallagher injured, there just might be room for the Habs to find out if Caufield can follow the path of Alex DeBrincat as undersized snipers that can simply score wherever they play. For fantasy managers seeking a late-season scoring boost, Caufield’s upside does make him worth picking up off the waiver wire.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Columbus – System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 15 Sep 2017 15:56:39 +0000

How important is it to have a strong, competitive AHL farm club? The Columbus Blue Jackets may be a great case study in answering that question. In 2015-16, in their ninth year of existence, the Lake Erie Monsters (since renamed as the Cleveland Monsters) finished second in the Central Division in the regular season and got hot in the playoffs, finishing the AHL season by raising the Calder Cup.

The Monsters lineup was a mix of AHL veterans like Michael Chaput, Trent Vogelhuber and Ryan Craig, with legitimate prospects including Sonny Milano, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Josh Anderson, Kerby Rychel, Zach Werenski, and Lukas Sedlak.

It may not be a fluke that four of the latter group of players all played prominent roles with Columbus this year, helping lead the Blue Jackets into the postseason for only the second time in their brief history. In addition to Anderson, Bjorkstrand, Werenski and Sedlak, part time netminder Joonas Korpisalo also spent much of the season in the NHL. Meanwhile Rychel and Dillon Heatherington were used in trades to bring in other players who played NHL roles.

An interesting comparison would be with the Milwaukee Admirals, Nashville’s farm club, who took the regular season division title over Lake Erie, but were swept in the first round by Grand Rapids (Detroit). The leading scorer of that team was Kevin Fiala, a former first rounder who seemed to cement himself as an NHLer last year. Part time goalie Juuse Saros also spent most of this past season in the NHL. Frederick Gaudreau and Pontus Aberg were a few more who made an NHL dent this year. A few others who spent the early part of 2015-16 in Milwaukee but had already moved on to the NHL well before the AHL playoffs had begun include Colton Sissons and Viktor Arvidsson. Other legit prospect who were part of the excellent regular season team but have still yet to get much NHL ice time include Vladislav Kamenev and Trevor Murphy.

Looking back to 2014-15, the Calder Cup was won by the Manchester Monarchs (LA), a franchise that immediately relocated to Ontario, California. The only key contributors from that club who became regular NHLers the next year were Colin Miller and Nick Shore.

Although the sample size looked at was very small, it is certainly not clear that AHL postseason success breeds immediate success in the NHL level. Werenski was a part of that Monsters squad out of convenience. He decided to leave Michigan after their season (his sophomore year) ended. Instead of moving up to Columbus, the Jackets convinced him to remain on the farm for the remainder of the schedule, as much to delay the start of his ELC as anything. He only appeared in seven regular season AHL games before exploding in the playoffs.

Sedlak can likely thank his burgeoning NHL career on that sparkling playoff run. A depth player for Lake Erie in the regular season, he become a go-to offensive demon in the playoffs. His regular season NHL production looks more like his AHL work did. Not that there is anything wrong with seeing your AHL club succeed, but having strong young talent at the AHL level is a good thing in and of itself. The team-wide AHL success is a nice bonus.

Pierre-Luc Dubois of the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles was selected by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft in Buffalo, NY on Friday June 24, 2016. Photo by Aaron Bell/CHL Images

1 Pierre-Luc Dubois – Notably when he was first returned to the QMJHL as a roster cut, Dubois did not really pick up his pace until the WJC where he was a plus playmaker using his size and strength to positive impact in all zones. He was much more effective in the second half and the QMJHL playoffs. Very intelligent and versatile forward can play in a middle six role now, with potential for more down the road. Will get a much longer look at NHL camp this year.

2 Oliver Bjorkstrand – A high volume shooter, Bjorkstrand found it much easier to hit the back of the next in his second go round in the AHL, scoring nearly as much in 37 games as he did in 51 the year prior. He also showed the ability to provide offense at the NHL level, becoming a lineup regular by the end of the season. Owns great hands, and puts in the work to get to pucks and make something happen with them. Although he prefers sh

Oliver Bjorkstrand Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)

ooting, he knows how to share. Very slight, will need to play with some heavier players to help create space.

3 Sonny Milano – A former first round pick, Milano began to produce offense at a top six rate in his second full AHL campaign. A masterful puck handler, he shows flashes of absolute brilliance, and at other times, is limited to simply having great composure and patience. Has very good vision and can be very creative in his puck maneuverings, whether his own handling or in passes to teammates. Also showed a lot of growth in his two-way game. Not far from the NHL.

4 Vitali Abramov – An offensive dynamo stolen in the third round in 2016, Abramov followed up his draft year by leading the QMJHL in scoring. A slippery finesse player, he has elite edge work and great top speed. His puck handling is delightful and he knows how to finish his own chances. Despite his size deficiency, he is reliable in his own end, and was regularly used to kill penalties with Gatineau. Too good for the Q, but not ready for the NHL.

5 Tyler Motte – The former Hobey Baker finalist was not ready for the NHL when the Chicago Blackhawks had him begin the season in the Show. Two games short of losing his prospect eligibility, they sent Motte back to the AHL. By years’ end, he was the best player for their Rockford affiliate. Acquired by Columbus in the Saad/Panarin trade, he plays a feisty, talented game not too dissimilar to that of Brendan Gallagher. That is the upside. Should be NHL ready this year.

6 Vladislav Gavrikov – A big, mobile, defensive zone specialist, Gavrikov is the best defensive prospect currently in the Blue Jackets’ system. Began to contribute more offensively as last season wore on, finishing with breakout performances in the KHL postseason and then the World Championships. Even if his offensive gains do not carry over, his hockey smarts and physicality both grade out as high end. Still an open question when he comes to North America.

7 Andrew Peeke – Big bodied defenseman had a strong freshman season with Notre Dame. Peeke has quick hands and a decent point shot. While he could be more aggressive with his stick, closing gaps and pressuring puck carriers before they can create danger, he is steady once the puck is in his zone, clogging lanes, clearing his crease and putting opponents on the ice with heavy hits. More a passer than a puck carrier, he has shutdown potential.

8 Kevin Stenlund – Seen as a bit of a surprise when he was taken in the second round in 2015, Stenlund was never highly considered by the Swedish powers that be, never being selected to represent the Tre Kronor in any internationally sanctioned tournament. While he scored well in junior hockey, he could not match that in the SHL until this year when he played a critical role for SHL champs HV71. A strong skater with a good shot, he profiles as a middle six forward.

9 Gabriel Carlsson – A plodding skater with a weak point shot, Carlsson literally does everything else very well to make up for those two deficiencies and still be a viable prospect. His decisions with the puck are generally right. He reads defensive zone coverage well, allowing him to support the offensive attack through solid puck movement. In his own zone, he does well at closing passing and shooting lanes. Will never be a scorer, but can contribute as a bottom pairing blueliner.

10 Alexandre Texier – An incredibly fast skater with intriguing puck skills, Texier made waves as a legitimate draft prospect not only from France, but playing in France. He has done well at every level he has ever played at, although the competition at those levels (French league, WJC Division 1A) pales in comparison to everyone else on all of the team lists. Off to play in Liiga next year, he will be tested. Will be most interesting to see how he acclimates to the pace of play.

11 Elvis Merzlikins – Now four years running as one of the top netminders in Switzerland’s top league, the Latvian Merzlikins is a very athletic goalie who loves to come out of the crease aggressively to challenge the shooter. Very quick from post to post, he does not let occasional lapses or bad goals get to him. In case, he reads the play quite well and bad goals are rare. He should be ready for the challenge of AHL play, but will be in Switzerland again this year.

12 Scott Harrington – Columbus’ seventh defenseman last season, Harrington spent the majority of his season in the press box. Originally drafted by Pittsburgh and traded to Toronto in the Phil Kessel deal, he became Columbus property in a trade for former first rounder Kerby Rychel. His puck play is on the iffy side, but he is a very good skater and takes care of things in his own end. A ready-now NHLer, but with a ceiling no higher than the third pairing.

13 Ryan Collins – Through his freshman and sophomore seasons with the Golden Gophers, Collins struggled mightily to live up to his billing as a second round draft pick. As a junior, his overall game started to come together. Always a solid skater for his plus size, he grew more comfortable playing the puck, while improving his decision making at both ends of the ice. He enters the pro game with the ability to be relied upon for tough situations and with reason to believe there is more offense in the tank.

14 Calvin Thurkauf – Big and physical, Thurkauf is also a strong skater for his size. Drafted in his second year of eligibility as a big forward with a good energy game, he took an increased offensive role with Kelowna last season, getting the room to work on his shot and puck handling skills. He prefers playing near the opposing crease and has the hands to score from in tight. Good performances in the WHL postseason as well as the WJC portend well for his AHL future.

15 Veeti Vainio – An injury prone speedster, Vainio is an excellent skater with great poise and confidence when he plays. He certainly has his red flags. In addition to his growing injury history, he can play soft and show a clear lack of intensity at times. The injuries – he was limited to nine regular season games last year and is out indefinitely now – have prevented him from working on those issues, but his speed cannot be taught.

16 Kole Sherwood – The first of five consecutive prospects brought to the organization as an undrafted free agent, Sherwood also has the distinction of being the first player from the Columbus area signed by the Blue Jackets. A good skater with a hard shot, he is an all-out workhorse whose offensive game has taken several steps forward since signing and moving to the OHL to develop, especially once he was given an offensive role with Flint. Ready for the AHL.

17 Markus Hannikainen – Signed as a 22 year old coming off a solid offensive showing in Liiga with JYP, Hannikainen is a good skater with hockey smarts and jam, although his offensive upside is ultimately limited. Physical without being a hard hitter, he also uses his body well to protect the puck. Plays a dogged style. His first few NHL cameos did not lead to much, but the Blue Jackets like him and gave him another two years to shoot for a full time NHL job.

18 Justin Scott – An average-sized forward with a big man’s game, Scott has surprisingly soft hands and touch. A reliable player in all three zones, he made a fairly smooth transition from an OHL career with Barrie to the AHL grind. A very heads-up player, he can bring energy and awareness to the game in all three zones. He profiles as an energy line winger, although his skating needs improvement, especially in his first few steps, to get there.

19 Sam Vigneault – A big center who gave up the final year of his collegiate eligibility at Clarkson, Vigneault plays a power forward game. Likes to take up space in front of the net and was immediately showcasing his strength against more experienced defenders in the AHL at the tail end of last season. Possesses high hockey IQ and good hands. Has bottom six upside with special teams possibilities as well. Not the most aggressive.

20 Matiss Kivlenieks – He is not the biggest, not the most athletic, nor the most technically proficient goaltender in the world. Not even in the organization. But Kivlenieks stops pucks. Always has. He had been committed to play for Minnesota State Mankato, but when Columbus offered him an ELC after leading Sioux City to the Clark Cup finals, the Latvian netminder turned pro. Demonstrated exquisite poise throughout his USHL run.

While the Blue Jackets system lacks an abundance of high end talent, it is chock full of players who are close to ready to contributing. Some like Bjorkstrand, Dubois and maybe Motte and/or Milano should play significant roles with the team this year. Others like Gavrikov and Merzlikins might be ready skills-wise, but are still paying in Europe. A few others like Collins and Carlsson are around one year of AHL development away from being ready. Added up, and it looks like the Blue Jackets surprising success last season was only the first in what should be the organization’s best yet run of contention.

NHL Prospect Watch: Chicago Blackhawks

Ryan Wagman — Thu, 21 Jul 2016 20:54:10 +0000

Looking at the draft histories of most teams will reveal trends if one digs deeply enough. In some cases, there are too many players from a specific junior team for it to be a coincidence. Other teams (a few, actually) treat Russia like it has the cooties and never draft Russian-based prospects. Without yet having performed a rigorous quantitative analysis of the trends, I would hazard that no team sticks to certain types on draft day quite like the Blackhawks, particularly over the past three years. In 2011 the Hawks had two first rounds picks and used both on CHL players in first Mark McNeill and later Philip Danault. The former is still in the system and has become a high end player in the AHL while the latter was shipped to Montreal in the Dale Weise/Thomas Fleischmann deal. In 2012, the Blackhawks took advantage of a surprisingly falling Teuvo Teravainen and popped him with the 18^th overall selection out of Finland. He was a key contributor to the team’s 2015 Stanley Cup championship and was recently sent to the Carolina Hurricanes as part of a salary cap inspired trade. In 2013, Chicago used their first rounder on OHL agitator Ryan Hartman, a player with deep roots in the Chicagoland area.

Since then – and really, during those drafts in the later rounds as well – the Blackhawks have drafted very, very heavily from the USHL and Sweden. Including the 2016 draft, the Hawks have 20 prospects in their system who either played NCAA hockey last year or are slated to play there next. By comparison, there are five who spent last season in the CHL. Furthermore, they have eight prospects drafted out of the various Swedish leagues and five out of all other European leagues. Even outside of the draft, Chicago has made a habit out of signing un-aligned NCAA prospects as free agents, including three – Tanner Kero, Nolan Valleau and Kyle Baun – who received regular play last season in Rockford.

April 09, 2016: Nick Schmaltz (8) of North Dakota avoids the stick check and skates by Tommy Schutt (23) of Quinnipiac during the 2016 NCAA Frozen Four championship game between North Dakota and Quinnipiac at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photograph by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire)

Of course, not every NCAA prospect works out, but then again, neither do all draft picks from the CHL and this way, the Hawks will tend to get two extra years to evaluate a prospect then do teams which hew more closely to the CHL triumvirate. For example, we can examine the example of 2014 first rounder Nick Schmaltz. Selected 20^th overall after two star seasons with Green Bay of the USHL, he went on the University of North Dakota (as well as two years representing the USA at the WJC) where this past season he was part of a star filled first line with Canucks’ first rounder Brock Boeser and recent Oilers signing Drake Caggiula that led the Fighting Hawks to the NCAA championship. Schmaltz signed an ELC with Chicago a few days before the draft, finishing his collegiate career having averaged just shy of one point per game.

All told, Schmaltz, whose older brother Jordan was also a first round pick, he with the Blues, is what I call a five tool player. Each of the five primary areas I look at when evaluating a prospect come out as plus for the center. While his top gear is short of elite, Schmaltz has tremendous acceleration, allowing him to gain a step on the vast majority of defenders while maintaining enough juice in the tank to keep clear. This essentially means that his skating prowess can be useful for both long range breaks as well as short gap races to loose pucks. What separates Schmaltz from many other fleet of foot prospects is that his hands are actually quicker than his feet. He is a creative and skilled stickhandler who can create room for himself when in coverage as well as allow passing lanes to emerge by pulling defenders out of position. Once he sees that new lane, there is no hesitation in his pushing the puck through it to a better positioned teammate. I have also seen him maintain control of the puck on many occasions when being defended against physically, showing that his hands do not stiffen up as the rest of his body turns to resistance.

Although more a playmaker than a sniper, Schmaltz can light the lamp as well. Both his wrist shot and backhander have goal scoring potential, although I do not expect him to score too many as a professional from beyond the faceoff dots. All of the aforementioned offensive skills are tied together with high end hokey sense. In fact, his hockey IQ may be more impressive than any of his skating, shooting or puck skills. Schmaltz plays a strong two-way game, keeping his stick active when defending, helping him break up plays by the opposition. His positioning, physicality (not a strength, but decent – he could stand to add 10-15 to his frame if it does not cut into his explosiveness), stick location and general smarts give him an edge in getting the puck moving in the right direction. In summary, Schmaltz is ready for a significant NHL role right now and he got here by getting his reps in at the collegiate level instead of in the OHL, as Windsor owned his CHL rights. Schmaltz will be given the opportunity to win a role as third line center or right winger (did I mention that he is versatile?) right out of training camp as the Hawks still need a few players on their ELCs to make the team as they are still tight against the salary cap.

Tyler Motte, LW, Michigan (NCAA) (121^st overall, 2013)

Sticking with players who went on to develop in the NCAA after being drafted, another who seems destined to open the 2016-17 in the NHL is former Michigan Wolverine Tyler Motte. A late fourth rounder in 2013, Motte was a secondary on the USNTDP at the time. Although undersized, a strong U18 tournament before draft day helped keep him on the radar. Like Schmaltz above, playing on a star trio with Boeser and Caggiula, Motte also played on one of the top lines in college hockey, providing the energy to Michigan’s top line along with Avalanche prospect J.T. Compher and Jets prospect Kyle Connor.

Much of Motte’s energy comes from his wheels, his most impressive tool. When he gets going, he can charge a retreating pair of blueliners and split them like hot butter on his way to the net. Although lacking in size (listed at 5-9”, 192) he plays a hard game and goes straight for the opposing net. His hands are also quick enough and creative enough to perform some fancy tricks and beat his share of goalies with dekes. Of course, he didn’t score all 32 of his goals for the Wolverines last year (in 38 games!!!) by deking. I do not foresee his shot working so well against the more uniformly excellent netminders in the NHL, but his release is pretty quick on his snap shot and Motte can one-time the puck proficiently as well. Helping his NHL odds is the fact that the Michigan native plays at the same high pace when the puck belongs to his opponents. His energetic style will give him a leg up on a bottom six winger role right away and career arc like that of the recently departed Andrew Shaw’s would not surprise in the least, although Motte has higher upside remaining.

Vincent Hinostroza, C, Rockford (AHL) (169^th overall, 2012)

Another in a long line of college-bound players drafted by the Blackhawks, Hinostroza was a sixth rounder out of the Waterloo program in the USHL. The Illinois native went on to a two year run at Notre Dame, a stretch that included being rostered for Team USA at the WJC three years ago. Like Motte above, Hinostroza is undersized, only in this case, more so. Hinostroza is also one year further along the developmental path, as last year was his first full campaign as a professional. Not only did Hinostroza lead the Rockford Ice Hogs in scoring, but he finished 17^th leaguewide in points for the under-23 set.

The small pivot is a very quick, almost instinctive skater, with quick feet as well as plus raw speed. His game is largely offensive in nature, as his strong skating is backed up by a plus grade for his shot, most often a hefty wrister, and a double-plus grade on his puck skills. Hinostroza has soft hands as well as quick wrists. He can execute a lovely toe drag and settle down hard passes in the blink of an eye and prepare to shoot. He has impressive offensive vision and will put up points at the NHL level, despite being blanked in his first seven games up for the Blackhawks. Like Schmaltz and Motte, Hinostroza is currently favored to start the 2016-17 season in the NHL, although in his case it is due to not having much left to prove in the AHL. Weighing in at under 160 lbs, he will always need some protection to give him the space to operate, but given a linemate like Dennis Rasmussen, Brandon Mashinter, or Jordin Tootoo, he could do wonders to provide the Chicago offensive attack with more depth.

Mark McNeill, RW, Rockford (AHL) (18^th overall, 2011)

Finally, a look at a prospect drafted by the Blackhawks out of the CHL. McNeill was the team’s first of two first rounders in 2011, as an offensively inclined two-way forward from Prince Albert in the WHL. While McNeill’s play in Rockford has been solid, he only received his initial NHL action around mid-season last season, smack dab in the middle of his third full year in the pros. The 12:44 of ice time he received against Carolina is still his lone taste of the NHL. The fact that he has had three years in the AHL is also significant, in that it means that his ELC has expired. The Blackhawks gave him a one year extension a few days ago, but the bottom line seems to be pointing towards 2016-17 being his last real chance to make an impact for the team that drafted him. That’s the bad news.

The good news is that McNeill is a pretty good player who has made incremental gains to his offensive output each year in the AHL. His most notable attribute is his shot. Both his snap shot and slap shot are weapons, with good power and an above average release which have contributed to nearly 50 goals combined between the past two seasons. As a skater, he is roughly average, with clean edge work but lacking much in the way of explosiveness. Then again, it plays up due to well above average hockey IQ. He demonstrates excellent positioning and anticipation, allowing him to be where he needs to be more quickly, leaving him less reliant on catching up. His hockey IQ extends to his play away from the puck, as he is the type of player trusted to take important defensive zone draws and has been one of Rockford’s primary penalty killers of late. McNeill also has a full figure, and plays physically (albeit cleanly) when the situation demands it. There are only so many NHL spots to go around in Chicago, but McNeill has proven that he is worthy of a true opportunity to claim one.

Dennis Gilbert, D, Notre Dame (NCAA) (91^st overall, 2015)

The Blackhawks third rounder in 2015, Gilbert has recently completed his Freshman season with Notre Dame. Drafted out of the Chicago Steel program in the USHL, he has quickly established himself as a competent two-way defender on a good collegiate program.

Gilbert is the type of defensive prospect who offers a little bit of everything, but will rarely stick out to a casual observer. He has plus mobility with big strides allowing him to chew up the ice. While his puck decisions can be a little erratic, when he is one, he shows the ability to execute under pressure and complete difficult, long-range passes. Solid as well in his own zone, he is adept at aiding in the transition by putting himself in a good position to accept the first pass and showing comfort in moving the puck himself up the ice. When he is off, he can show some tunnel vision in his passes telegraphing his intentions and thereby risking unnecessary turnovers. Gilbert also has a pro body that is likely to fill out a bit more in the Notre Dame weight room. He is not the most exciting prospect in the system, but he is a good one, and one worth watching as he continues to suit up for the Fighting Irish for two or three more seasons.

Ville Pokka, D, Rockford (AHL) (34^th overall, 2012, by the NY Islanders)

Acquired by the Blackhawks from the Islanders as part of the haul for Nick Leddy, Pokka has shown remarkable offensive growth in his two AHL seasons since arriving from Finland. Short, but stocky, he has proven adept at playing in all situations for the Ice Hogs.

Pokka’s physical tools do not carry any true plus grades, although he plays the puck nicely enough, but all of his skills play up through plus hockey sense. He is a very calm player, with generally plus puck decisions and positioning. His shot lacks the necessary oomph to put himself in line for a power play role, but he looks about one year away from claiming a full time job in the NHL, and could elevate as high as a decent second pairing defender. At the very least, Pokka should make his NHL debut this season. Having made the Finnish team for the upcoming World Cup should provide Pokka with the platform he needs to move up in the Blackhawks’ future plans.

There are many others in the Blackhawks system who are trending towards NHL futures. At the AHL level, NCAA free agent Tanner Kero had an impressive rookie season in the AHL, scoring 20 goals between 17 games during a 5+ week stretch with the Blackhawks. He is an agile, bullish skater with a quick wrist shot and a high floor. Luke Johnson was a teammate of Schmaltz’ at North Dakota, albeit in lower line role. He is an edgy and physical player who is responsible in his own end. Johnson signed a pro contract with the Hawks shortly after being crowned a collegiate champ. Luc Snuggerud was an offensive dynamo in the Minnesota high school ranks who has proven able to bring it in the collegiate game as well, although his overall game is still raw and lacking in his own zone. Dylan Sikura is a fantastic skater who makes Hinostroza look like a heavyweight. His sophomore campaign at Northeastern was far better than his work as a freshman, though he still needs to demonstrate more commitment to playing hard when off the puck. Gustav Forsling is an undersized blueliner acquired in trade from Vancouver prior to signing his ELC. He was a standout defender for Sweden at the last two WJCs, and he brings plus mobility and a rocket of a point shot to the table. There are more, but I think you get the point.

For the Blackhawks to remain a relevant force, they will need to draft and develop well so the back half of their roster can be filled up with talented players on minimal contracts. In truth, all teams need this to thrive, but Chicago, overloaded with big cap hit, long-term contracts (Kane, Toews, Hossa, Crawford, Keith, Seabrook, etc), will decline severely in the near future if a handful of these guys do not pan out.

Connor McDavid steals spotlight, Team Canada and Team USA U18 reports

David Burstyn — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 02:02:59 +0000

Connor McDavid is blowing the hype out of the water.

The 1997-born forward dominated competition that were mostly two years his senior. McDavid not only led the tournament in scoring, but was named MVP and Best Forward following his exceptional play.

McDavid helped lead Canada back to prominence with a gold medal. It was the first time the Americans didn’t capture gold in the past five tournaments.

Several players increased their draft stock with solid tournament performances. Here’s a look at some of the players from Team Canada and Team USA that left a lasting impression in Sochi, Russia.

Team Canada

Connor McDavid (C, 2015)

Named tournament MVP after producing 6-8-6-14 totals, setting a new Team Canada point total .. recorded back-to-back hat tricks in round robin play against Sweden and Switzerland .. electrifying talent with the puck as he was able to generate offense out of innocent-looking plays .. double under-ager used this tournament to put himself on the hockey world map .. the most heralded prospect to come out of the CHL since Sidney Crosby.

Morgan Klimchuk (RW, 2013)

Tied for 7^th in tournament scoring riding shotgun with McDavid on Team Canada’s first line .. highly involved in the offensive zone due to his ability to stay with plays and makes incredible use of his shot selection .. a permanent fixture for head coach Don Hay in PP situations where Klimchuk delivered the offensive goods.

Nicholas Baptiste (RW, 2013)

Recorded two key assists in the gold medal game, including the GWG .. was used in all situations and played a simple, yet effective game showcasing his above-average skill-set .. took advantage of his ice-time and played in all situations, including the dying minutes of both the gold medal and semi-final game to help Team Canada preserve its lead.

Laurent Dauphin (LW, 2013)

Showed up when it mattered most with his best performance in the gold-medal game where he scored a goal and an assist in the gold-medal final .. a fearless and hard-nosed competitor who would always fight his way into the slot or go hard to the net .. skating was exposed at times but made up for it with keen attention to detail and uncompromising work ethic.

Samuel Morin (D, 2013)

Cool, calm and collected, he logged a ton of minutes and was very practical in terms of his decision-making .. simplistic in his approach, he utilized his speed advantageously and kept forwards to the outside with his long reach .. played with a heightened intensity .. his draft stock soared after this tournament as he has great size and is only scratching the tip of his potential.

Dillon Heatherington (D, 2013)

Consummate two-way tower of power, he was always involved along the boards and winning loose puck battles .. showed a keen sense of anticipation and was never out of position .. staunch defensive efforts coupled with the ability to make a play with the puck made him highly-serviceable.

Philippe Desrosiers (G, 2013)

Only undefeated goalie in the entire tournament went 6-0 while only allowing six goals against all tournament .. recorded back-to-back shutouts, including final game of round robin against Sweden as well as the quarterfinal game against Czechs .. never fell behind in one game this tournament as he always played with the lead .. aggressive in his reads and handling the puck, plays a determined butterfly style and was very diligent with his rebounds .. upped his draft stock considerably with stand-out performance.

Team USA

Steven Santini (D, 2013)

Named the tournament’s best defenseman .. Santini’s no nonsense approach, coupled with his physical brand of play, kept the opposition not only in check but off the scoreboard .. one of the most physically-imposing defensemen at the tournament despite going pointless, he recorded the highest +/- for his team (+8) second-highest in the tournament.

Tommy Vannelli (D, 2013)

Hard to imagine that he only joined the Program a few weeks before the start of the U18 World Championships as he took over the PP duties and was on the ice for the dying stages of the gold-medal game looking for the equalizer .. calculated and ultra-poised on the line to make a play .. showed good defensive awareness to complement his maturing offensive game.

JT Compher (C, 2013)

Returned for his second consecutive U18 World Championship (won gold in 2012 as an under-ager), capturing a silver medal in 2013 for his efforts .. heart and soul player went to the wall each and every game with gutsy performances, including the shootout winner in semi-final game against Team Russia .. team captain averaged a point a game and was relied upon by Coach Granato to score goals and kill penalties .. a jack of all trades.

Tyler Motte (C, 2013)

Recorded the highest amount of goals for Team USA with five while providing clutch scoring .. a dual-threat due to his work ethic, Motte was always in motion and could make plays by quickly charging up ice .. great in transition, he would often catch the opposition off guard with timely stick raises.

Michael McCarron (RW, 2013)

Biggest player up front in the entire tournament came slightly unraveled against Team Sweden with undisciplined penalties but rebounded nicely in both the semi-final and gold-medal game .. imposed his will and was extremely effective down low when charging the net .. caught up ice on a handful of occasions as he struggled with the big ice surface but showed good patience and offensive prowess.