Tyler Moy – McKeen's Hockey

Nashville – System Overview

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 15 Sep 2017 20:10:18 +0000

For years, the Nashville Predators were known as a defense-led team. Much of that reputation was the result of the 2003 draft. With the seventh overall choice, they selected Ryan Suter. With their second of three picks in the second round, they chose Kevin Klein. And with the third of three second rounders, they called out the name of Shea Weber. Between the three of them, there are now 2,381 regular season games of experience.

Of course, the Predators history of developing front-line defensemen goes further and deeper than those three, even if Suter and Weber are the clear best of the bunch. In their first ever draft, their final pick was used on Karlis Skrastins, now remembered as one of the victims of the Lokomotiv Yaroslavl plane crash. His NHL career spanned 832 games.

In 2001, they used their first round pick on Dan Hamhuis, who is likely to surpass 1,000 games this year. In 2005, they used their first three picks on blueliners. While the first two are little remembered today, the third one is Cody Franson. Although more beloved by the analytics crowd than by old-school thinkers (great possession stats, but slow afoot), he already has 527 games to his credit.

This reputation was further enhanced in 2009, with the selection of Ryan Ellis 11th overall and Mattias Ekholm in the fourth round. Seth Jones was the most recent feather in the defensemen drafting cap worn by Nashville’s only ever GM, David Poile. The 4th overall pick of the 2013 draft was traded to Columbus for Ryan Johansen before reaching his full potential, but he has already won fans up and down the league.

All of the above is not to say that the Predators never miss when drafting a defenseman high. Ryan Parent (18th overall in 2005) and Jonathon Blum (23rd overall in 2007) are fairly considered busts, even though each has more than 100 regular season games played in their resume. And of course, for every later round defender who panned out four or five never had the pleasure of inhaling the scent of an NHL locker room.

In summary, it is fair to say that Nashville’s reputation in this regard has been well earned. And unlike other clubs with a history of success with a slice of the draft population, the amazing consistency of the people running the good ship Predator adds to that legacy. We recognize this success and applaud Poile, Assistant Paul Fenton and their entire scouting staff for this history of success.

What we cannot do, however, is presume that any blueliner in the Nashville is bound for glory just because he was drafted by this team. The list below is well-represented by defensemen, and justifiably so. But it needs to be said that the placement of Dante Fabbro, or David Farrance, or any of the others, is based solely on that player’s standing as a prospect in this system, in a vacuum. We would be doing a disservice to the player, to ourselves as talent evaluators, and to you, the reader, if we give a subjective boost to any of the below just because the Nashville Predators once drafted Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, and Kevin Klein in a single draft. Dante Fabbro is ranked highly for the simple reason that he is really very good at hockey.

Eeli Tolvanen

1 Eeli Tolvanen – Owning one of the better shots in the 2017 draft class, Tolvanen would likely have been drafted well before the Predators’ turn at the podium were it not for a slow recovery from injury suffered at the WJC that held back his production in the second half. An excellent skater and puckhandler as well, his shot will always be his main draw. Although lacking strength, he is committed to puck retrieval in his own zone. After a problem with his Finnish school credits left him ineligible to play for Boston University, elected to go back to Finland to play for Jokerit in the KHL.

TORONTO, ON - DECEMBER 26: Canada forward Nicolas Roy (25) jumps in celebration as forward Dante Fabbro (8) joins him after scoring against Russia in the second period during the World junior Hockey Championships (Photo by Dan Hamilton/Icon Sportswire)

2 Dante Fabbro – A lights-out blueliner in his draft year with Penticton of the BCHL, Fabbro acquitted himself well as a freshman with Boston University. While he was not quite the same level of offensive contributor, he proved that his defensive game is quite advanced. He keeps a very tight gap, does not bite on dekes very often, has an active stick and is surprisingly physical down low. A very good penalty killer. Has a solid enough point shot to project improved offensive totals going forward.

3 Vladislav Kamenev – After taking the rare step of leaving Russia at 19 to play in the AHL, at the very least, Kamenev can state that his game is well-suited for North America. He has very slick hands, which he combines with agile feet to be a dangerous customer in one-on-one situations. A creative passer as well. Responsible defensively, he hunts for pucks, and uses his solid frame to help out in the dirty areas. All he really needs at this point is an opportunity to prove himself in the NHL.

NASHVILLE, TN - JANUARY 12: Nashville Predators right wing Pontus Aberg (46) . (Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

4 Pontus Aberg – The most ‘ready-now’ player in the Nashville system, Aberg was a regular in the Nashville lineup in their run to the Stanley Cup finals last spring. A two-way forward with solid overall offensive tools, he likes to play near the opposing crease. Patient with the puck, he sees the ice well and is equally comfortable shooting in net as he is dishing it off to a linemate, although is more likely to contribute as a goal scorer at the highest level. Smart and ready to establish himself in the NHL.

5 Grant Mismash – A versatile forward with an NHL caliber shot, Mismash has explosive offensive qualities that become more and more prominent as the season wore on. He is a plus skater with very soft hands. Does well at maintaining possession of the puck under pressure. A diligent backchecker and very hard worker, he gets into trouble on occasion with unnecessary penalties. Plays a gritty, rough style, which makes up in energy what he lacks in the ability to punish. Going to North Dakota.

6 Samuel Girard – The epitome of the modern-day small and mobile defenseman, Girard has led the QMJHL in both assists and points by a defenseman in both of the last two years. A great skater with exceptional vision, he will have to prove that his tiny frame can hold up to the rigors of the professional game. Has taken big strides recently in his defensive awareness, but still struggles at times when defending against high end speed. May need to be sheltered, but the tools are there.

7 Rem Pitlick – A bit of a late bloomer, Pitlick went from 16 points in his year of draft eligibility to leading the USHL with 89 points, winning the player of the year honors, in his second go round. Blessed with outstanding speed and a sniper’s shot, the stocky forward was productive from the get-go with Minnesota. A great finisher, he actually looks for the pass more often. Needs to improve his decision making in his own end, although does not neglect his duties off the puck.

8 David Farrance – The most dynamic blueliner in last year’s USNTDP, Farrance should not have been available towards the end of the third round, when the Predators pounced. His high end mobility and puck handling skills, as well as great vision in the offensive end, should all more than paper over his slightly below average height and minimal physical presence. Flashes top four blueline upside regularly. Although competent in his own zone, was rarely used on the PK for the U18 squad.

9 Frederic Allard – Drafted as a high end offensive defenseman, Allard’s offensive game seems to have plateaued, but he has made up for it with improved play in his own zone. An excellent skater with great edges and impressive top speed. Produces at a top clip despite not grading out as more than average with his shot or his raw puck skills. Everything plays up due to his anticipation and overall hockey sense. Has nothing left to prove in the Q.

10 Yakov Trenin – The Predators top pick in the 2015 draft, Trenin has been a steady offensive producer in three years of QMJHL development. Was one of the rare CHL players invited by Russia to play for their WJC squad. Big but not very physical, his best trait is his hockey IQ, a common trait among Predators’ prospects. Projects more as a playmaker than a sharpshooter as he prepares for his first full pro season. Has middle six upside.

11 Frederick Gaudreau – A postseason hero for Nashville last year, Gaudreau has come an awfully long way from his year and a half playing with Milwaukee on an AHL contract. A strong offensive showing in his second pro season convinced Nashville to give him an ELC. He has not looked back since. Outside of hockey IQ, all of his tools grade out around average, but the intelligence and positive energy allows it all to play up. Has a good chance to spend the year in Nashville as a fourth-liner/13th forward.

12 Patrick Harper – A tiny forward who was drafted out of the New England prep school ranks, Harper gave a hint of what was to come during Boston College’s pre-season, where he teamed up with Clayton Keller to destroy game sheets. Continued to score once the games counted, with nearly a point-per-game as a freshman. He has very nice touch with the puck. Skating is better going east-west than it is north-south. Is a non-entity physically.

13 Tyler Moy – There were some who thought that the selection of Moy, in his third year of eligibility, in 2015, was a ploy by Nashville to convince Jimmy Vesey to sign. If so, it clearly did not work, but no matter. Moy has game. He has plus puck skills and remains in control even under pressure. Possesses a very good shot release that allows him to connect even from wide angles. Also grades out as above average with his skating and, naturally for a Harvard grad, for his smarts. Making his pro debut this year.

14 Emil Pettersson – Taken in the sixth round in 2013, Pettersson’s development has been slow and steady until he broke out with a point per game performance in the second half last season after moving from Skelleftea to Vaxjo. He has high end puck skills and above average skating ability. Can play a flashy game and makes consistently strong reads in the offensive end. On the downside, he has little defensive game and can be physically overpowered. Signed to an ELC, will be coming to the AHL this year.

15 Victor Ejdsell – A late bloomer, Ejdsell has great size and exploded as an offensive option in Allsvenskan last year, leading the league in scoring. Skilled with the puck, he is a terror when he comes down the wing with speed. Is used to creating offense when given room, but has been known to struggle in tighter games when facing a strong backcheck. Needs to do a better job of utilizing his teammates, even if they do not have his physical gifts.

16 Alexandre Carrier – A small defender with excellent puck moving skills, Carrier had an excellent pro debut with Milwaukee. Formerly the fourth overall pick of the QMJHL entry draft in 2012, he was able to both contribute offensively and play a regular role on both special teams units. A fantastic passer who knows what he wants to do with the puck before he gets it. Guards the middle of the ice well, but could stand to tighten his gaps.

17 Trevor Murphy – An undersized offensive defenseman, Murphy was signed as an undrafted free agent out of Windsor of the OHL after a strong rookie camp in 2015. He plays rough for his size, and makes up for his weak points (size, skating) with strong puck skills and a burgeoning two-way game. Very good at beginning the transition to offense with a lead pass out of his own zone, he also can show some wiggle when carrying the puck over the line.

18 Tom Novak – While a knee injury cut his season short around the mid-way point, Novak had been picking up where he left off from a solid freshman campaign for the Minnesota Golden Gophers. A strong skater with some dynamic puck playing elements to his game, he likes to play near the opposing crease in the offensive end, making the goalie and defenders work for rebounds. Assuming a full recovery from his injury with no loss of speed, he could be in line for a strong season to get higher up this list.

19 Justin Kirkland – A two-way energy forward in the WHL, Kirkland struggled in his first exposure to the professional game. He had a hard time keeping up with the pace of the AHL game – particularly in regards to his first few steps - and his shot was rarely used and was not much of a threat when it was. He still has some potential as a power forward, but needs to be more assertive to ensure that his presence is felt in every shift.

20 Pavel Koltygin – A strong skater with good balance who excels at creating space for himself and protecting the puck. Koltygin had a great start to his first season in North America, but slowed tangibly in the season’s second half. The former ninth overall pick in the CHL import draft at least ended the season well with a solid showing for Russia at the WU18. With more consistent showings of his offensive tools, he could out to be a late-round steal.

One of the facets that the Predators like to look for in their prospects is high hockey IQ. The prospects listed above all share an aversion to mistakes and have strong reputations at both ends of the ice. In light of that strategy, they consistently are able to ice a team at the NHL level – a team that is largely built from within - that is greater than the sum of its parts.

NCAA Championship Frozen Four recap – Lukosevicius hat trick stands up as Jaillet shuts the door

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 14 Apr 2017 16:03:16 +0000

NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey includes 60 different programs, from Alaska-Fairbanks to Alabama-Huntsville, from Maine to Arizona State. From fall to spring, the teams each played around 40 games, after which, using conference tournaments and a formula I will not try to explain (I would first need someone to explain it to me), 16 teams are selected to battle to a national championship.

Those 16 contenders were split into four groups, each set ranked one through four. The tournament is conducted in a one-and-done format, so teams must be on their best behavior to extend their seasons for one more game.

In the first group, located in Cincinnati, top seeded Denver defeated Michigan Tech, while third seed Penn State destroyed Union 10-3. Denver advanced out of the group with a 6-3 decision over Penn State the next day.

In Manchester, New Hampshire, top seed Minnesota was upset by fourth seed Notre Dame in a tight 3-2 affair, while second seed UMass-Lowell put down third seed Cornell, 5-0. The group final required overtime for Notre Dame to continue their Cinderella run, as they beat U-Mass-Lowell 3-2 with an Andrew Oglevie goal 2:44 into the extra frame.

In Providence, Rhode Island, the hometown Providence Friars, NCAA champions as recently as 2015 were only the fourth seed in their own home arena, and were shut out, 3-0, by first seed Harvard. IN the other matchup up, third seeded Air Force upset second seed Western Michigan 5-4. Harvard advanced out of the group with a 3-2 victory over Air Force in the second round.

In the final group, located in Fargo, North Dakota, the defending champion University of North Dakota, although not technically in their home rink, were ostensibly the home favorites as the third seed, but feel in the first round, in double overtime, to second seed Boston University, 4-3. Meanwhile, top seed Minnesota-Duluth defeated Ohio State 3-2 in boring old single overtime. In the interest of symmetry, Minnesota-Duluth and Boston University went to overtime for the second round game, eventually won by the higher seed, 3-2, on a power play goal by Adam Johnson less than two minutes into the fourth period.

That frantic weekend set the stage for the Frozen Four, whose combatants were previewed in greater depth last week.

CHICAGO, IL - APRIL 06: Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs wing Kyle Osterberg (8) in action in the third period of an NCAA Frozen Four semifinal game with the Harvard Crimson and the Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs on April 6, 2017, at the United Center in Chicago, IL. Bulldogs won 2-1 to move on to the championship game. (Photo by Patrick Gorski/Icon Sportswire)

Game 1: Harvard vs Minnesota-Duluth

As the games were in Chicago, it just so happened that Notre Dame was the closest NCAA hockey campus to the United Center, normally the home rink of the Chicago Blackhawks. As such, most tickets were scooped up by fans of the Fighting Irish and many were not too concerned with arriving in time to see the first matchup. That is too bad, as that first game was tightly fought and remained close for all 60 minutes of action.

Although the combined penalties called in the game (six in total between the two teams) would not betray it, this was a fairly chippy game, a tone set early on when Duluth blueliner Willie Raskob crushed Harvard’s Luke Esposito just inside his own blueline. Esposito took Raskob’s number on his way to the ice and retaliated a few seconds later, behind the Duluth net, a hit which forced him to the penalty box for boarding. Harvard was given a power play opportunity shortly after killing that first penalty.

The two sides traded chances for much of the first period, with Harvard getting on the board first, with a goal on their third power play of the period. Stud freshman blueliner Adam Fox got the puck down low on the right wing to senior Alexander Kerfoot. The latter whipped a pass across the crease to senior Tyler Moy, who three days later signed an entry level contract with the Nashville Predators. Despite the puck deflecting off a UMD defender, Moy got his stick on the puck and beat netminder Hunter Miska with the wide shot.

Less than three and a half minutes later, the Bulldogs had equalized. On a faceoff in the Harvard end, senior Dominic Toninato won the draw and pushed the puck back a few inches into no-man’s land. Freshman Joseph Anderson was first to the biscuit and, from directly in the slot, but with a sea of bodies between him and Harvard goalie Merrick Madsen in the crease, his quick snap shot handcuffed the Crimson goalie, with the puck squirting between the latter’s legs, knotting the game at one a piece.

The two teams continued to trade the run of play over much of the remaining 40+ minutes. That said, Minnesota-Duluth were creating higher quality chances than their counterparts were able. The overall shot counter showed that Harvard had a slight possession lead, as they outshot Minnesota-Duluth 40-38. That said, the Harvard goalie had to work a lot more for his saves than did Hunter Miska for the Bulldogs. In a vacuum, that may not say much, but Merrick Madsen is a fine goaltending prospect. The Bulldogs were simply able to move the puck around in the offensive zone more than Harvard was able. With a worse goalie, UMD may have run up the score.

Finally, as most in attendance, including the late arriving Notre Dame supporters were feeling resigned to the first game going to overtime and pushing back the starting time on the late game indeterminably, the Bulldogs shocked and delighted the audience and themselves with a goal in the final minute of regulation. Earlier goal scorer Joey Anderson ended up with the puck along the half-wall after a scrum near the point in Harvard’s zone. He fired a cross-ice pass to the left wing, where blueliner Willie Raskob was streaking into an open spot. As the Harvard defense began to collapse, Alex Iafallo was in the clear in front of the net first and Raskob sent the puck towards his teammate after faking a shot. Iafallo had to only deflect the puck on net where it slipped through Madsen’s five hole.

Harvard played the final 25 seconds with that type of uncertainty you only see from a trailing team when its season is on the line but not out of reach. With the extra attacker, the established the Minnesota-Duluth zone and the output of their pressure was two pucks off the post in the dying seconds. Alas, they could not beat Miska again. UMD, which had been ranked first in the nation for large portions of the season, had booked its ticket to the championship match with a 2-1 victory over Harvard.

Game 2: Denver vs Notre Dame

As mentioned above, many locally based Notre Dame supporters began to file into the arena towards the tail end of the first game. The gaps that had previously dotted the United Center were all filled in by the time the Denver school band played the national anthem. While the Star Spangled Banner went smoothly for the first game, in this one, the emcee left his microphone on and was audibly humming for a few bars, before he heard himself – along with 19,000 or so other attendees – and rectified the matter.

If the anthem faux pas had a few people squirming in their seats early, the Notre Dame boosters were downright uncomfortable by the first intermission. Not only had Denver gone to the break carrying a 2-0 lead, but Notre Dame simply could not hang on to the puck. More telling than the early score line was the shot counter, showing Denver with a 13-3 edge at the break. Both Denver goals came as the result of wrap around plays. For the first, Pioneer fourth liner Emil Romig skated around the net from left to right and, instead of trying to stuff the puck through Cal Petersen, he faded away from the crease at the other end, flipping the puck over Petersen’s left shoulder with the hockey equivalent of a fadeaway jumpshot. Shortly thereafter, Denver star blueliner Will Butcher, who would be awarded with the Hobey Baker Award the next day, raced in to the crease area from the right, came out back again on the left and fired a cross-crease pass that was tapped in by Henrik Borgstrom.

The Pioneers were in full control of the puck again in the second period, outshooting Notre Dame 16-8 in those 20 minutes. Their dominance paid off with three late period goals, as Tariq Hammond, Dylan Gambrell, and Evan Ritt all scored in the span of 4:07. The Gambrell goal was another wraparound success while Hammond and Ritt were both able to capitalize on inexplicable giveaways in the Notre Dame end by otherwise reliable players. By the time the horn sounded to mark the end of the period, the majority of Notre Dame fans had left the building.

There was less to report from the third period. Denver controlled possession again, outshooting ND 13-6, and the Fighting Irish earned their consolation goal, Cam Morrison tipping a power play point shot from Jordan Gross into the net. Dylan Gambrell later scored again for Denver. While going in as if to wrap the puck around the net, he spotted Petersen moving clumsily to guard the posts. Before curling around the net, Gambrell instead flicked the puck off Petersen’s left inseam, and into the net.

Few Notre Dame fans were left to witness the indignity. As impressive as Denver had been in the first two rounds against Michigan Tech and Penn State, their dismantling of Notre Dame in the semifinals left no doubt that they were the favorites heading into the last collegiate game of the year.

CHICAGO, IL - APRIL 08: Denver Pioneers forward Jarid Lukosevicius (14) scores a goal in the second period during the NCAA men's national championship game between the Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs and the Denver Pioneers on April 8, 2017, at United Center in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Patrick Gorski/Icon Sportswire)

NCAA Final: Minnesota-Duluth vs Denver

Two days’ notice were enough for the United Center to fill up with a healthy contingent of supporters from Duluth and environs. Much like Notre Dame fans from two nights before, the Bulldogs fans came to witness what looked like a potential drubbing at the hands of Denver. The Pioneers played another 20 minutes of high end hockey, giving UMD little room to breathe. Denver only led 13-10 in shots, and there were no goals in the first 20 minutes of play, but they were consistently the more dangerous team. Furthermore, Denver were very close to the early lead, with Duluth only holding on for the grace of the post, which denied Denver winger Logan O’Connor twice in a single shift.

Denver’s efforts began to pay off early in the second. The play began in their own zone. Joey Anderson of the Bulldogs had a great scoring chance on a deflected puck, but Denver netminder Tanner Jaillet got across in time to push the puck away. Blake Hillman got the puck out of the zone and up to fellow blueliner Michael Davies. Davies fired a slapshot in from the point which was tipped in the slot by Jarid Lukosevicius.

6 seconds later, Lukosevicius struck again. Again, he was the beneficiary of the hard work of his teammates. This time, WJC hero Troy Terry danced the puck through the zone to the goalie’s right before losing control near the slot. The puck slid to the left and lucky Luko was there to bang it home. Two goals in 16 seconds and it was almost time to start watching the clock.

Of course, Minnesota-Duluth was not ready to give up, and just over two minutes later, they were back in the game. Alex Iafallo was the author of their first goal. After drawing a penalty out of Denver with his dogged work around the slot, he also scored the power play marker. A Joey Anderson wrist shot was sailing wide until Iafallo got a stick on it, redirecting the puck past Jaillet.

Although UMD were putting more and more pressure, Denver was not yet truly sitting back. The Pioneers had some extended time in the UMD zone around the 12 minute mark. Once again, it was Lukosevicius getting on the score sheet. This time he pounced on another loose puck in the slot, slamming it home. It took a few seconds for fans to realize that it was the same player scoring again, but I counted at least three hats hitting the ice in homage to the hat trick marker.

Heading into the third period with a two goal lead and twenty separating them from the title of champions and Denver began to sit back. Their intention was to parry UMD until the final buzzer sounded. The shell game nearly failed. With under six minutes remaining, Dallas Stars first rounder Riley Tufte used his size advantage (he’s a big boy) to gain the puck in the Denver end. He passed it off to Avery Peterson in the corner, who fired a sharp angle shot off the netminder and back into the slot where Tufte had advanced and got in front of his defender. Tufte swatted the bouncing puck into the net setting up a thrilling last five minutes.

Jaillet was kept busy throughout the period, facing 17 shots over the 20 minute span, some of which could have been avoided were it not for some of his own unnecessarily risky attempts to play the puck forcing him out of position. UMD defender Neal Pionk was especially dangerous, spinning and juking his way out of the harm of Denver’s backcheck. After the Bulldogs pulled their goalie with around 95 seconds remaining, Denver struggled mightily to get the puck out of their own end.

Even though they controlled play in the Denver end for much of the last period, Minnesota-Duluth could not add to the Tufte goal. Denver netminder Jaillet, who was named recipient of the Mike Richter Award for top NCAA goaltender on the same night as his teammate Butcher won the Hobey, had stopped 38 of 40 shots to make sure that Lukosevicius’ hat trick stood up. For the eighth time in their history, and the first time since 2005, the Denver Pioneers were NCAA men’s hockey champions.

Frozen Four Preview: High end offense highlights championship series

Ryan Wagman — Tue, 04 Apr 2017 12:28:54 +0000

This coming Thursday (April 6, 2017) marks the beginning of the annual Frozen Four NCAA championship series. In the early game, the third seed (nationally) Harvard takes on #2 ranked University of Minnesota-Duluth. Shortly after the completion of that game, the first seed, Denver, will play the Frozen Four underdog, Notre Dame. The respective winners of the two games will meet on Saturday, with the winner crowned as NCAA champions for 2017.

March 27, 2015: University of Minnesota-Duluth Forward Alex Iafallo (14) shoots on the power play. The University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs defeated the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers 4-1 in the semi-final of the NCAA Division 1 Men's Northeast Regional at Verizon Wireless Arena in Manchester, NH.

Harvard vs Minnesota-Duluth

It is no secret that these two teams were among the best in the nation this year. Harvard had NCAA’s most potent offense, scoring 4.14 goals per game, while ranking fourth in goals allowed, surrendering 2.14 per match. The Bulldogs of UMD were not far behind in either category, ranking eighth in goals for at 3.40/game, and ninth in goals allowed, surrendering 2.27/game. Although both teams have been very strong on the man advantage (Harvard – 25.9%, UMD – 20%), they were also both suspect in killing penalties (Harvard – 82.6%, UMD – 81%), neither finishing in the top 30 nationwide. Neither team has a marked size advantage over the other.

Goalies

Both teams have strong NCAA netminders, with Harvard’s Merrick Madsen also qualifying as a legit pro prospect, having been drafted in 2013 by Philadelphia. His counterpart, Hunter Miska, was overlooked in his draft eligible year in the USNTDP, where he was third stringer behind Vancouver prospect Thatcher Demko and Michigan State’s Edwin Minney. While Madsen gets the edge here as a prospect, the difference between he and Miska is marginal. Both have been workhorses for their respective teams, and should be expected to provide impressive work between the pipes on Thursday.

Defense

Looking at the blueliners set to face off in this game, Harvard’s edge gets a boost. UMD’s most prominent defenseman, Carson Soucy, has been out for close to one month and his availability for the Frozen Four is still in question as of this writing. If he gets the green light, and is truly back at close to 100%, he would go a great way for the Bulldogs as his combination of size, hockey IQ and two-way is rare at this level. Without Soucy, the UMD blueline will be led by senior Willie Raskob and sophomore Neal Pionk, the latter of whom has been under watch by scouts all season due to his plus puck movement capabilities. He was one of the leading scorers among defensemen in college hockey this year. That said, the number one blueline contributor to offense in the nation is lining up on the other side of the ice in this game.

Harvard freshman Adam Fox finished his year with 39 points in 34 games, despite taking some time off to help the American U20 squad win the gold medal at the WJC. Fox is a fantastic puck player and the Calgary draft pick is a top prospect by any measure. The Harvard backline is pretty deep with NHL-caliber prospects. Fellow freshman John Marino is an Edmonton draft pick and big Wiley Sherman was drafted by Boston. Both teams receive plenty of contributions from their defensemen, but if Soucy is hurt or too much below his full capability, Harvard will have a decided advantage.

Forwards

Both teams have two good collegiate scoring lines, with a pretty sizeable dropoff in the bottom six. For UMD, the offensive leader is Alex Iafallo, a senior who has nearly doubled his previous season high this year. Scouts will be looking at him as well as Neal Pionk for potential ELCs. The other big names among their forwards are Adam Johnson (onetime scoring leader in the USHL), Joseph Anderson (WJC gold medal winner and New Jersey draft pick), Dominic Toninato (power forward whose rights are controlled by the Toronto Maple Leafs), Kyle Osterberg, Karson Kuhlman, and Riley Tufte (drafted in the first round last year by Dallas). Tufte is not technically in the top six, but is worth mention, not just as a former first rounder, but as his play has picked up a lot in the second half of the year after a very slow start. They are a hard working crew, getting results without the dazzle of some other squads, but goals count the same whether they were produced through individual displays of finesse, or solid team structure and boring efficiency.

The top six for Harvard includes Tyler Moy (Nashville sixth rounder), Alexander Kerfoot (New Jersey fifth rounder), Sean Malone (Buffalo sixth rounder), Ryan Donato (Boston second rounder), Luke Esposito and Lewis Zerter-Gossage. Moy, Kerfoot, and Donato are all especially notable as plus skaters with puck handling chops. Moy, Kerfoot, Malone, and Esposito are all seniors.

Prediction

Fantastic hockey. This game should feature a lot of back and forth and many high end scoring chances for both teams, but Harvard’s advantage in speed and puck skills should allow them to win, 5-3, booking a spot in their first NCAA championship game since they won the title in 1988-89, a team which included current head coach Ted Donato (Ryan Donato’s father).

MANCHESTER, NH - MARCH 26: Notre Dame Fighting Irish right wing Anders Bjork (10) breaks away from UMass Lowell River Hawks right wing John Edwardh (29) during the NCAA Northeast Regional final between the UMass Lowell River Hawks and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on March 26, 2017, at SNHU Arena in Manchester, New Hampshire. The Fighting Irish defeated the River Hawks 3-2 (OT). (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Notre Dame vs Denver

Although the Fighting Irish entered the tournament as a fourth seed, upsetting first Minnesota and then Mass-Lowell to reach the Frozen Four, do not mistake them for a pushover here. Even before last weekend, this was a high end NCAA hockey team. They could score - finishing 13^th nationwide with 3.26 goals for per game – and defend – finishing eighth in goals against, allowing only 2.23 against per content. In truth, neither of figures reaches the heights that were managed by the Denver Pioneers, but neither falls too far short.

The top ranked Pioneers scored an additional goal every sixth game approximately, compared to Notre Dame, and allowed 0.4 goals per game less than the Irish, giving Denver the best defense in the country. Both teams were practically equal at killing penalties, but Denver has a decided advantage when playing with an extra man. UD converted on 21.74% of their power plays, a top ten figure, while Notre Dame was only 34^th, scoring on 18.02% of their power plays.

Goalies

Although Denver allowed fewer goals per game than did Notre Dame, we must take that with a grain of salt when it comes to evaluating the netminders. The reason for that is that Denver gave a lot of time in the crease to Florida prospect Evan Cowley, whose numbers dwarfed those of nominal starter Tanner Jaillet, raising the team’s overall save percentage. Cal Petersen, Notre Dame’s starter, and in this observer’s opinion, the top netminder in NCAA, played all but one period for the Irish this year, the very definition of a workhorse. Jaillet is a decent netminder, but I feel that his numbers are propped up by playing behind a dominant team with quality players at every position. While Notre Dame is not without NHL-caliber talent, Petersen has to do more on his own. And he has. His six shutouts this year are tied for the NCAA lead, while Jaillet, on the other hand, has not kept a clean sheet all year. The edge is not huge, but I give it here to Notre Dame.

Defense

Led by captain Will Butcher, Denver has one of the best blueliners in collegiate hockey playing for them. The Colorado draft, a senior who was recently nominated for the Hobey Baker award, is a dynamic puck moving defender. He is quick, with soft hands and a very nice shot from the point. Michael Davies, Adam Plant and Chicago draft pick Blake Hillman round out the top four. With the exception of Hillman, they are an undersized crew (only two of their regular six man rotation stands higher than 5-10”), but make up for that deficiency with excellent mobility.

Each of Notre Dame’s top five can contribute to the offense, including Chicago draft pick Dennis Gilbert, and Blue Jacket’s prospect Andrew Peeke. Jordan Gross will also likely attract NHL attention when he decides to end his collegiate career. They are also a much bigger unit than the crew Denver is bringing to the Frozen Four, with four of the six standing at least 6-0” tall. There is not a dynamic player like Will Butcher in the bunch, but this unit is deeper in that Denver will have to respect them all in every shift.

Forwards

Here is where I get excited. The two combatants respective top lines are both in the running for the best NCAA line. Notre Dame lines up with Hobey Baker nominee Anders Bjork, a Boston draft pick, generally skating with Montreal pick Jake Evans and Andrew Oglevie. With Denver, their top trio includes Florida first rounder Henrik Borgstrom, Team USA WJC shootout hero Troy Terry and Sharks pick Dylan Gambrell. Between Borgstrom and Bjork, it is almost a push, but the other two-thirds of Denver’s top line has more all-around dynamicism. All three of them are marvelous, NHL-level puck players. Jake Evans has impressed me with his offensive vision, but Oglevie is more along the lines of a skilled grinder.

The Irish have more talent in their depth lines, but that intrinsic advantage has not led to extrinsic results. Denver’s middle six, including players like Evan Janssen, Matt Marcinew, and Jarid Lukosevicius are all capable of dominating shifts through hard work and hockey IQ. Notre Dame’s Cam Morrison has shown occasional flashes of the skill that convinced the Colorado Avalanche to use a second round pick on him last year, but is also prone to quiet stretches. If Buffalo prospect Connor Hurley were active, that would likely tilt the scales in Notre Dame’s favor, but he has not played in months and is not expected to play this weekend.

Prediction

More fantastic hockey! Seriously, I am excited. This game will come down to which team’s second line does more. Matchups will play huge factor here. So while it may be counter-intuitive, I suspect that Notre Dame will either shut out the Pioneers 2-0, or Denver will win 3-2. Based on what I know, I will go with Denver in the latter scenario.

Championship Prediction

If the above predictions come to fruition, we will see a final of Harvard vs Denver on Saturday. In this case, I would pick the Crimson to emerge as champions, with their ability to dominate through two lines backed up by a talented blueline and high end netminder doing enough to keep Denver’s amazing top line at bay. Let’s call it 4-3 Harvard over Denver for the title.

NHL Prospect Scouting: Nashville Predators

Ryan Wagman — Fri, 22 Jan 2016 16:48:47 +0000

For an organization known for a rich history of drafting and developing high end blueliners (Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, Roman Josi, Seth Jones), the Nashville Predators are suddenly awash in skilled forwards bubbling up through the pipeline. This is not to say that they were mistaken in dealing Jones to Columbus for Ryan Johansen, who immediately steps into the role of their top line center, but rather that this will soon be a problem relegated to history.

There can be some doubt as to which forward prospect is the most appealing, but most observers (including this one) would agree that there are three that stand out above the rest – not just the rest within the Nashville organization, but among the entirety of the hockey prospect world. As of mid-January, the most prominent of the troika is Kevin Fiala, if for no other reason than that he is playing with Nashville right now.

His lofty placement on this list is not to see that his ascent to the NHL has been seamless. Through roughly one full season’s worth of experience in North America, there have been bumps in his path and even some questions as to how well he can adapt to the game away from the more spacious rinks of Europe. On the other hand, his game has shown signs of improvement through this season, making the question of his promotion a matter more of when, and not if.

The Swiss former first rounder is known for his puck game. His hands are high end with clever and quick moves to help keep the disc away from the sticks of opposing defenders. Whether carrying or passing the puck, Fiala raises the level of excitement on the ice. He has good vision, and his passes are both hard and on the money. When he is on top of his game, he can control the proceedings. When he is off, he lacks a sense of calmness and assuredness, seemingly playing hot potato with the puck and rushing plays, which never ends well. In general, he could stand to simplify his puck game a touch, and cut down on the risky plays, although he has made progress in that area this year.

Experience and consistency stand in the way of Fiala demonstrating the entire tool set needed to cement a top six forward spot in the NHL. If there is an area of his game that seems unlikely to develop too much it is his physical side. Not that today’s game – or a game like Fiala’s – relies overmuch on physical play, there is a modicum of strength needed to avoid it being an area that can be exploited by opponents. Oftentimes, the graduate of the HV71 program in Sweden plays a perimeter game in the offensive end. At the hint of contact, he will often pull up shot and let the play get away from him. Even when he is trying to stay engaged, he is too easily bumped off his stride and the puck, demonstrating a clear need to add muscle to his frame. He doesn’t need to be a physical force, but needs just enough to prevent opponents from shutting down his game without too much difficulty.

For now, he can probably hold his own in the NHL, if lined up with more physical and defensively responsible linemates. Ideally, Fiala would spend the majority of the remainder of this season rounding out his game in the AHL before getting a lengthier opportunity in training camp next year.

Vladislav Kamenev, C, Milwaukee (42^nd overall, 2015)

Another forward with quick hands, particularly notable for his wrist movements, Kamenev plays a far more physical game than his erstwhile Milwaukee teammate Fiala. The former second round pick, who captained the Russian squad at the recent WJC, combines elements of North American North-South with the Russian zest of quick passes in the offensive end, giving him multiple paths with which to make his presence felt on the ice.

In spite of what those who only saw him in the Gold Medal game, when he was ejected from the match late in the third for a moment of severe unsportsmanlike conduct, Kamenev is actually a very responsible player on the ice (between the whistles), given plenty of PK time his coaches and showing a zest for tracking back in his own zone, plus a proclivity for wrecking opponent offensive sallies. He still needs more development time to round out his defensive zone game, but he is trending in the right direction and definitely showing that he gives full effort on both sides of the puck.

After dissecting is off-puck play, we can enjoy the 19-year-old for his main qualities of which reside on the puck. Kamenev has a nose for the puck, anticipating where it will go and when and is able to get himself into little areas from where he can do some damage, whether that is in space, or by the crease. When he has the puck he is equally as proficient passing as he is shooting. He can perform either on a single touch, and either reach his teammate on a line or pivot and fire a strong wrist shot towards a piece of unguarded net.

The upside with the Magnitogorsk product is lower than that of Fiala, but Kamanev is also less likely to flame out altogether. His reasonable best case scenario is as a solid, versatile middle six forward who can slot into the lineup as needed, where needed.

Jimmy Vesey, LW, Harvard (66^thoverall, 2012)

While Fiala and Kamenev are front of mind prospects for Preds fans, Vesey can be somewhat forgotten, playing in the hockey hotbed of Boston on weekends only, and not even yet under contract. Now a senior at Harvard, his professional future will commence as soon as the Crimson have their season end in late March or early April. If the Crimson make all the way to the Frozen Four, their season will end during the same weekend as the end of the NHL regular season. This is relevant as some close to the organization view the Hobey Baker Award challenger as the equivalent as a late season trade addition, someone who could step right into an NHL lineup out of campus and contribute at a high level immediately.

As insane as his point totals are in the NCAA, they are all earned. Vesey grades out better than average in the skating and shooting categories, but he really excels when we watch the traits of his game, both on and off the puck, which both grade out as upper echelon components. Starting with his puck skills, the Boston area product is as creative as he is smooth. He makes tremendous puck decisions, of what to do, when to do it and how. His puck possession skills allow him to calmly cycle the puck in the low end of the offensive zone, knowing he can hold the disc until a lane opens up for a shot, or a teammate opens up for a cutting pass. He makes passes that few other collegians can. He also has a long reach, which he will sometimes employ to dangle, although I expect that to be less featured once he turns pro.

Vesey’s off-puck is just as impressive, as might be expected from the son of a former professional. Not a physical player per se, he knows how to use his body to gain leverage, such as bracing his feet against the boards to ensure a backchecker will expend his energy into the boards through Vesey’s legs instead of his more vulnerable back. He tracks the play very well and plays hard in the dirty areas of the rink without getting himself into penalty trouble.

Assuming the Predators can come to terms with him quickly and are in a playoff race, expect to see Vesey in the NHL in the postseason this year. If not, this may be the second most coveted free agent in the summer class behind only (maybe) a fellow named Steven Stamkos.

Juuse Saros, G, Milwaukee (99^th overall, 2013)

An undersized netminder, Saros is one of the most electric goaltending prospects in hockey, serving as another unneeded reminder that teams should not be wasting first round picks on netminders as the middle and late rounds are filthy with them.

Saros has plus lateral agility and minimizes his size deficiencies by cutting down on the angles whenever possible, challenging the shooter and reducing the amount of open net that is visible from the point, particularly when the puck is between the dots. He trusts in the speed of his legs to stay tall as long as possible and never seems to back down, even when in tight. The 20-year-old Finn is also a strong puck handler, who can help the transition game with early passes out from behind the net.

Some will not be able to get past Saros’ shortness of stature (compared to most goalies), standing only 5’10”, but the combination of his other tools makes him impossible to ignore. Having played heavy minutes as a teen in Finland’s top league, there is a chance he can carry a starter’s workload and his age and lack of North American experience gives the Predators’ organization a lot of time to hone his craft in the AHL. Outside of emergencies, he should not appear in the NHL until the 2017-18 season, but if Rinne is past his prime, Saros is the best bet in the system to be able to one day replace him.

Tyler Moy, C, Harvard (175^th overall, 2015)

A nice find as a late round pick last June, Moy, a teammate of Vesey’s at Harvard is a smart player with a good wrist shot complete with a tricky release. He is a smooth stickhandler who sees the ice pretty well and prefers to pass than shoot. Already a Junior with the Crimson, Moy will never be a big point producer, but plays a stocky and heady style that gives him a chance to emerge as a candidate for a lower line role in three or four years. His lack of acceleration will prevent him from a ceiling any higher than that, but his physical and intelligent game will make him a trusted player by coaches and a favorite by fans.

Max Gortz, RW, Milwaukee (172^nd overall, 2012)

Another forward with hidden upside, Gortz has made a number of fans for himself in his first season in North America after 161 games in the SHL. Not a fleet skater, Gortz plays a 200-foot game which he supplements with an above average shot that is dangerous whether he wrists them in from close range, or fires a slap shot from distance. Growing up between the Malmo, Farjestads and Froluna systems, Gortz plays on both special teams’ units for Milwaukee and has shown to be a quick study of the subtleties of the game on the smaller ice surface and of his opponents on any given night, allowing him to anticipate the play before it happens and making up somewhat for his average footspeed. While Gortz was on few radars prior to this season, he should expect to make his NHL debut by early next season, if not this one.