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1 It’s not like a top scorer on the Stanley Cup favourites is going to be some bargain, but Martin Necas heads into the playoffs on a tear. Necas came out of the Olympic break producing on a higher level, scoring 38 points (16 G, 22 A) with 82 shots on goal in 26 games down the stretch. He’s riding shotgun with Nathan MacKinnon and Arttur Lehkonen on the top line and obviously getting first unit power play time, too. Not a surprise pick, but more a reminder not to overlook how great this player has been this season.
2 While the Los Angeles Kings keep getting beat out in the first round of the playoffs and they have the daunting matchup against the Avalanche in the first round, but Adrian Kempe is a consistent stud in the playoffs. Since the Olympic break, Kempe has 27 points (16 G, 11 A) and 70 shots on goal in 25 games. In the past four playoffs, he has put up 29 points (15 G, 14 A) with 106 shots on goal in 24 games. He has been an elite playoff performer, and it gets overlooked because it only comes in one round bursts.
3 The Minnesota Wild have tried time and again to find a different centre for their top line, but they have returned Ryan Hartman to that role, skating between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, and he finished the regular season with 15 points (8 G, 7 A) and 39 shots on goal in the last 13 games. That’s already encouraging but consider that he has 16 points (4 G, 12 A) and 42 shots on goal in 17 games across his last three playoff appearances. The Wild have a tough matchup against Dallas in the first round, but Hartman is an intriguing player to watch in the postseason.
4 Future Hall of Famers don’t tend to get overlooked, but it’s always worth noting when a player has taken their game to a new level. Pittsburgh Penguins defenceman Erik Karlsson came back from the Olympics and delivered 31 points (11 G, 20 A) with 68 shots on goal in 24 games. Insane production from a 35-year-old. He has 34 points (4 G, 30 A) with 104 shots on goal in 38 games across his last two playoff appearances, though this will be his first postseason appearance since 2018-2019.
5 One of the most exciting young teams in the league, the Montreal Canadiens have a tough matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round, but it’s not going to be an easy path for the Lightning, either. Since the Olympic break, captain Nick Suzuki ranks fifth in the league with 36 points (11 G, 25 A) in 25 games, Cole Caufield leads the league with 19 goals in 24 games, and Juraj Slafkovsky is tied for 18th with 28 points (9 G, 19 A) in 25 games. It’s early in the team’s trajectory for the Canadiens to go on a long playoff run, especially considering their mediocre possession numbers, but if their young stars show up, they could do some damage.
6 The Utah Mammoth are making their first playoff appearance and, like the Canadiens, have a group of skilled forwards that can make a difference. Clayton Keller had 34 points (9 G, 25 A) in 25 games after the Olympic break, Dylan Guenther added 26 points (25 G, 11 A) and 64 shots on goal in 24 games, and Logan Cooley, Nick Schmaltz, and Mikhail Sergachev each had at least 20 points. They may not have the playoff experience of the Vegas Golden Knights, but the Mammoth have some players who could make the first-round series very interesting.
7 One of the more remarkable parts of Boston’s strong finish to the regular season was the production that they received from veterans Pavel Zacha and Viktor Arvidsson, two players who have had very solid careers but performed like stars down the stretch. Zacha finished the regular season with 28 points (15 G, 13 A) and 44 shots on goal in 24 games. That is dependent on an inflated shooting percentage, but it’s fantastic production from a player who is not a star. Similarly, Arvidsson had 26 points (11 G, 15 A) with 51 shots on goal in his last 24 games.
8 While Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin draw most of the attention in Pittsburgh, the wingers in the supporting cast should not be ignored, especially since the Penguins have a chance to advance beyond the first round. Bryan Rust tied his career high with 65 points (29 G, 36 A) this season, finishing with 25 points and 57 shots on goal in 23 games after the Olympic break. He’s not the only one. Rickard Rakell played a bunch of centre, especially when Crosby was injured, and he had 23 points (13 G, 10 A) with 53 shots on goal in his last 20 games.
9 Two of Kyle Dubas’ best acquisitions in the past year played a big part in Pittsburgh reaching the postseason. Egor Chinakhov flashed potential with the Columbus Blue Jackets a couple of years ago, when he had 29 points (16 G, 13 A) in 53 games, but he struggled to get going at the start of this season and the Penguins swooped in, getting him for a second-round pick. They watched him grow into a role as a legitimate scoring winger who tallied 32 points (15 G, 17 A) with 86 shots on goal in his last 33 games.
10 A 20 Fantasy Poins favourite, Anthony Mantha played just 13 games last season in Calgary before tearing his ACL. The Penguins signed him as a free agent, to a one-year, $2.5 million deal that was almost assuredly intended to make him very tradeable once he proved that he could still play. He did that quickly, generating 11 points (6 G, 5 A) with 23 shots on goal in his first 12 games and then, as the Penguins continued to win, it became apparent that there would be little upside to trading a winger who was filling the net. He finished the season by scoring 19 points (12 G, 7 A) in his last 19 games on his way to career highs of 33 goals and 64 points. He has zero goals in 14 career playoff games, so this year presents a prime opportunity for Mantha to net his first postseason goal.
11 Dallas Stars veteran Matt Duchene suffered an upper-body injury early in the season, and he struggled, but once he got healthy, and then the Stars needed him to play a bigger role as injuries decimated their forward group. Duchene finished the season with 34 points (12 G, 22 A) and 54 shots on goal in his last 31 games. The shot rate is not ideal, but his role on the top power play unit and skating between Jason Robertson and Mavrik Bourque on the Stars’ second line is very encouraging. Bourque is starting to unlock his potential, too, putting up 18 points (9 G, 9 A) with 44 shots on goal in 23 games since the beginning of March.
12 The Ottawa Senators have the profile of a contending team, so even though they are facing a relentless Carolina Hurricanes squad, they should not be considered pushovers. Part of the reason to like the Sens is their scoring depth. Since the Olympic break, Drake Batherson has put up 22 points (14 G, 8 A) with 55 shots on goal in 25 games, lifting him to career highs of 33 goals and 71 points on the season.
13 Everyone is aware of Boston Bruins defenceman Charlie McAvoy. He played for Team USA at the Olympics and has been in the Top 10 of Norris Trophy voting three times in his career, but part of what he is known for is being a standout defender who does not pad his production with power play points. It’s not that he never played the power play, but it wasn’t the foundation of his production like it is for some other defenders. In the second half of the season, as the Bruins pushed for a playoff spot, McAvoy turned into one of those point-producing blueliners. In his last 41 games, McAvoy accrued 42 points (10 G, 32 A) with 66 shots on goal and 14 of those 42 points came on the power play.
14 The Philadelphia Flyers made a late charge to get into the playoffs, in part fueled by 2025 No. 6 pick Porter Martone, who scored 50 points (25 G, 25 A) in 35 games as a freshman at Michigan State then signed with the Flyers when his collegiate season was done. Martone did not waste any time upon turning pro, as he produced 10 points (4 G, 6 A) with 32 shots on goal and 16 hits in nine games. He’s a ready-made power forward and is one of the biggest reasons for the Flyers to be a threat against the Penguins in the first round.
15 The Carolina Hurricanes put pressure on their opponents from the drop of the opening puck and part of what makes it work is that they get contributions from secondary players. Look at the line of veteran left winger Taylor Hall skating with younger players Jackson Blake and Logan Stankoven. Hall has 21 points (6 G, 15 A) and 42 shots on goal in 23 games since the Olympic break, Stankoven finished the regular season with 11 points (7 G, 4 A) and 19 shots on goal during an 8-game point streak, and Blake had 13 points (3 G, 10 A) with 32 shots on goal in his last 14 games.
16 Anaheim Ducks defenceman Jackson LaCombe has seen his stock rise in the past few seasons, but this will be his first appearance in the playoffs. In the second half of the season, LaCombe contributed 35 points (4 G, 31 A) with 66 shots on goal in 41 games. The arrival of John Carlson at the trade deadline didn’t hurt LaCombe either, as he had 17 points (4 G, 13 A) in 21 games after the trade.
17 The Los Angeles Kings are fighting uphill, facing the Colorado Avalanche in the first round, but if they are going to have success, they may need a breakthrough performance from centre Quinton Byfield, who struggled to score consistently this season, but then finished with 16 points (11 G, 5 A) and 45 shots on goal in his last 16 games. Byfield’s right winger, Alex Laferriere brings the heavy physical game that should work in the postseason and Laferriere had 15 points (5 G, 10 A) with 47 shots on goal and 60 hits in his last 16 games of the regular season.
18 Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Sean Walker has surged offensively down the stretch. Since the Olympic break, Walker has 17 points (5 G, 12 A) with 55 shots on goal in 24 games, and he doesn’t depend on the man advantage to get his points as only one of his 31 points this season came via the power play.
19 Heading into the playoffs, here are some goaltenders that finished the season strong. Since the Olympic break, Montreal’s Jakub Dobes was 11-5 with a .916 save percentage. Colorado’s Scott Wedgewood was 11-2-1 with a .945 save percentage, which becomes interesting because Mackenzie Blackwood struggled. Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was 11-2-1 with a .920 save percentage, and Boston’s Jeremy Swayman was 9-6-1 with a .918 save percentage. Kings goaltender Anton Forsberg was 7-5 with a .914 save percentage, which is notable because Darcy Kuemper also had trouble down the stretch.
20 On the other hand, these goaltenders had trouble late in the season that could pose challenges in the playoffs. Utah’s Karel Vejmelka 11-6-1 but his save percentage was .883. Mackenzie Blackwood was 7-5-1 with a .884 save percentage. Carolina’s Frederik Andersen has had a tough season and finished with a 9-4 record but a .879 save percentage in his last 13 games. Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal was 9-7-2 with a .868 save percentage down the stretch. Kuemper was 5-3-6 with a .867 save percentage and Carolina’s Brandon Bussi was 8-3-1 with a .865 save percentage.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick
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Each week, I dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, more young talent in San Jose, Canada passes on Sam Bennett, goaltending situations to monitor in Carolina and Ottawa, plus Mikael Backlund, Noah Hanifin, Eeli Tolvanen, and so much more!
#1 Drafted by the San Jose Sharks with the 33rd pick in the 2024 Draft, winger Igor Chernyshov had 55 points (19 G, 36 A) in 23 games for Saginaw in the OHL last season and started this season in the American Hockey League, where he put up 23 points (11 G, 12 A) in 25 games for the San Jose Barracuda to earn his promotion to the NHL. With these outstanding scoring credentials, it’s no surprise that the Sharks are giving Chernyshov a real shot to produce at the NHL level and he’s skating on the Sharks’ top line with Macklin Celebrini and Collin Graf. In his first seven games for the Sharks, Chernyshov has eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 16 shots on goal and that kind of production is going to keep him in a prime spot alongside Celebrini, one of the preeminent stars in the game.
#2 One of the surprising omissions from Team Canada’s Olympic Men’s Hockey Team was Florida Panthers centre Sam Bennett, who won the Conn Smythe Trophy as Playoff MVP last season, and he played a key role for Canada in the Four Nations Faceoff. Bennett did get off to a relatively slow start this season but he has picked up the pace lately. He is riding a seven-game point streak and has 17 points (7 G, 10 A) with 44 shots on goal in his past 14 games. He’s skating on a line with veterans Carter Verhaeghe and Brad Marchand on his wings, so Bennett is in a good spot to keep producing and it appears that he will get a long break in February while others head to the Olympics.
#3 Carolina Hurricanes goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov is out for the rest of the season after requiring surgery for a lower-body injury. With Frederik Andersen struggling, this could be a prime opportunity for 27-year-old Brandon Bussi, who had a .912 save percentage in 15 games for the Hurricanes this season before getting lit up for six goals on just 22 shots against Montreal on Thursday.
#4 The Ottawa Senators have a goaltending situation in flux as well, as Linus Ullmark has taken a leave from the team for personal reasons. The vague nature of his absence makes it difficult to forecast a return date, so expect Leevi Merilainen to get the starter’s workload for as long as Ullmark is away from the Sens. That’s a dicey situation for Ottawa, as Merilainen has managed a .869 save percentage in 11 games this season, which is not nearly good enough if he’s going to be playing as the Sens’ starter. Merilainen did have a .925 save percentage in a dozen games for Ottawa last season, so if he could get back to that level, that would be ideal.
#5 Calgary Flames captain Mikael Backlund has never been a huge scorer, topping out with 56 points during the 2022-2023 season, but he has always been a reliable two-way performer, finishing in the Top 10 of Selke Trophy voting three times in his career. He is on a great offensive run right now, though, with nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 23 shots on goal during a six-game point streak. The Flames have a 5-1 record during that streak, and Backlund has a good thing going with linemates Blake Coleman and Matt Coronato.
#6 Vegas Golden Knights defenceman Shea Theodore is out of the lineup with an upper-body injury and while it’s not considered a long-term injury, the Golden Knights can afford to be patient. Veteran blueliner Noah Hanifin has stepped up with eight assists and 16 shots on goal in his past six games. Five of those eight assists have come on the power play, so Hanifin is handling the quarterbacking duties just fine.
#7 Seattle Kraken winger Eeli Tolvanen has always been able to fire the puck, and it’s part of the reason that the Kraken claimed him off waivers from the Nashville Predators in December of 2022. In his past eight games, Tolvanen has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) and 19 shots on goal. He is skating with Chandler Stephenson and Frederick Gaudreau at evens, but Tolvanen is also getting first unit power play time, so he has a chance to remain a quality scoring option. On top of that, Tolvanen has 102 hits and 41 blocked shots in 38 games, making him one of three forwards (Will Cuylle and Beck Malenstyn are the others) with at least 40 blocked shots and 100 hits.
#8 The Buffalo Sabres have won 10 straight games and, not surprisingly, that has made Sabres players more appealing for fantasy managers. Defenceman Bowen Byram has elevated his game and in the past five games, he has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and six shots on goal while averaging more than 24 minutes of ice time per game. Byram isn’t the only Sabres blueliner bringing more offence to the table. Mattias Samuelsson has put up seven points (1 G, 6 A) with 11 shots on goal while averaging 24:50 of ice time per game in his past seven games. For added fantasy appeal, Samuelsson has 15 hits and 13 blocked shots in those seven contests, too.
#9 While Ivan Demidov gets a lot of the fanfare as a top rookie for the Montreal Canadiens, don’t sleep on Oliver Kapanen, who is proving to be a reliable contributor. He has five points (2 G, 3 A) and 16 shots on goal in his past six games, and he is tied with Anaheim’s Beckett Sennecke for the rookie goal-scoring lead with 12. Kapanen is in a good spot right now, skating between Demidov and Juraj Slafkovsky.
#10 While there has been some frustration with the inconsistent production from star players for the Toronto Maple Leafs, they are getting production from the supporting cast. Bobby McMann has seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 23 shots on goal in his past seven games. Nicholas Robertson also has seven points (2 G, 5 A) and 14 shots on goal in his past seven games. Robertson doesn’t get as much ice time as McMann, but Robertson has shown that when he is given the chance to play, he can produce. Since the start of the 2023-2024 season, Robertson has 1.13 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, which ranks 17th out of the 391 forwards that have played at least 1,000 five-on-five minutes in that time frame.
#11 The Nashville Predators have been a more competitive squad, winning 12 of their past 18 games and right winger Luke Evangelista has been a playmaking force in that time. In his past 19 games, Evangelista has delivered 20 points (4 G, 16 A) and 45 shots on goal. He is skating on a line with Erik Haula and Michael Bunting at even strength, but Evangelista does get first unit power play time for the Preds and 11 of his 30 points this season have come via the power play.
#12 Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin had a modest start to the season, with 14 points in 22 games, but the powerful winger has started to heat up lately. In his past nine games, Nichushkin has 12 points (4 G, 8 A) and 33 shots on goal, while playing 19:42 per game. Nichushkin is playing with Brock Nelson and Artturi Lehkonen at even strength and getting first unit power play time for the Avs.
#13 Anaheim Ducks centre Mason McTavish went through a tough stretch in early December, managing one point in an eight-game span, but he has pulled it back on track with five points (3 G, 2 A) and 22 shots on goal in his past six games. McTavish is currently skating on a line with rookie Beckett Sennecke and veteran Chris Kreider in addition to having a spot on the Ducks’ top power play unit.
#14 The Vancouver Canucks are in a tough spot right now with Marco Rossi and Conor Garland both out with injuries. Rossi’s absence leaves the second line centre spot for Max Sasson, the 25-year-old rookie who does have five points (4 G, 1 A) in the dozen games in which he has played at least 12 minutes. Garland’s injury opens the door for Linus Karlsson to play on the Canucks’ top line with Elias Pettersson and Jake DeBrusk. Karlsson has five points (4 G, 1 A) with six shots on goal in his past five games and, again, that shot rate is too low to be very exciting, but Karlsson is starting to earn additional ice time and the injuries are just providing him with an even better opportunity. He has five points (4 G, 1 A) in the nine games in which he has played at least 12 minutes this season.
#15 This is not the first time this season that Pittsburgh Penguins right winger Justin Brazeau has been highlighted, but it has been a remarkable season for a player who had 22 points (11 G, 11 A) in 76 games last season. Brazeau missed some time with an injury but has produced 20 points (12 G, 8 A) in 25 games for the Penguins, including six points (4 G, 2 A) and 11 shots on goal in his past four games. Brazeau is playing on a line with Anthony Mantha and Tommy Novak as well as getting time on the Penguins’ second power play unit.
#16 Although Columbus Blue Jackets defenceman Zack Werenski is expected to return to action this weekend, the Blue Jackets have been getting some nice production from others on the blueline. Veteran Damon Severson has contributed six points (1 G, 5 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past five games while second-year defenceman Denton Mateychuk has five points (1 G, 4 A) and seven shots on goal, while averaging a whopping 25:29 of ice time per game, in his past five contests. Werenski’s return will limit their offensive upside, but Mateychuk could still hold some appeal in deeper leagues.
#17 Maybe wins don’t always come so easily in Columbus, but Blue Jackets goaltender Jet Greaves is still widely available for fantasy managers despite posting a .909 save percentage in 26 games. His 8.33 Goals Saved Above Expected in all situations ranks 21st among goaltenders and it’s notably better than Elvis Merzlikins, his competition in the Columbus crease, who has -6.10 Goals Saved Above Expected. Greaves’ increasingly strong hold on the starting job for the Blue Jackets does give him some appeal for fantasy managers.
#18 Buffalo’s winning streak has been the tide to lift all of the Sabres’ ships and that includes goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who become increasingly important with Alex Lyon and Colten Ellis both injured. Luukkonen has stopped 76 of 79 shots (.962 SV%) in his three starts during the 10-game winning streak, and that followed some uneven performances on his way to a .884 save percentage through his first 10 appearances of the season.
#19 More from the Maple Leafs’ supporting cast: Max Domi is not especially consistent in his offensive production and some if it has to do with where he is in the lineup, so it’s noteworthy that he’s getting a chance on the top line, skating with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies. Domi has six points (1 G, 5 A) and 10 shots on goal in his past five games after he had 12 points (3 G, 9 A) and 50 shots on goal in his first 33 games. A player who was considered an option for that first-line right wing spot when he was acquired in the offseason, Matias Maccelli has contributed six points (2 G, 4 A) and eight shots on goal in his past seven games as he skates on a line with Bobby McMann and Scott Laughton.
#20 Keep an eye on Dallas Stars rookie left winger Justin Hryckowian, who has five points (3 G, 2 A) with eight shots on goal in his past seven games. That shot rate is far too low to have real sustainable value, but Hryckowian is on a line with veterans Matt Duchene and Jamie Benn, and this looks like progress after he started the season with eight points (3 G, 5 A) and 33 shots on goal through his first 33 games of the season.
*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick
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Last season, the Sabres turned back the clock and welcomed Lindy Ruff back as head coach after they dismissed Don Granato in hopes of ending the franchise’s playoff drought. Instead, the Sabres took a step back as they adjusted to the tougher ways Ruff brings behind the bench. The Sabres went from 84 points in 2023-2024 to 79 in 2024-2025. While Buffalo was able to score plenty at five-on-five (185 goals, fourth in NHL), their power play was slightly improved going from 16.6 to 18.8 percent but their penalty kill got worse going from 79.8 to 76.4 percent. With the kinds of offensive weapons they have, improving the power play is a necessity and if they’re going to be a playoff contender, the penalty kill must improve dramatically. Ruff returns for his second season and will hope to help them avoid a 15th straight season out of the playoffs.
What’s Changed?
Big changes usually happen in Buffalo after a disappointing season and while they avoided making coaching or executive changes, they traded their second leading scorer J.J. Peterka to Utah for defenceman Michael Kesselring and forward Josh Doan. Peterka made it clear he didn’t want to stay in Buffalo and wouldn’t re-sign with them as a restricted free agent and in return the Sabres got a righthanded defenceman in Kesselring they view to be the potential long-term partner for Owen Power or Rasmus Dahlin. With Doan, they get a high intensity forechecker and energetic player with loads of upside as well as an NHL lineage as the son of Shane Doan. Buffalo also added defenceman Conor Timmins from Pittsburgh in a draft weekend trade and signed goalie Alex Lyon and energetic forward Justin Danforth in free agency. If the goal of the offseason was to make the roster into more of a classic Lindy Ruff-style team, that’s what general manager Kevyn Adams accomplished.
What Would Success Look Like?
Playoffs. That’s it. The Sabres have been close enough to make it without doing so in recent years and that didn’t do anything to quell the fan base. If Tage Thompson (44 goals) and Alex Tuch (36 goals) pick up where they left off a year ago and Rasmus Dahlin continues to assert himself as one of the premier defencemen in the NHL, there’s no reason the Sabres shouldn’t be in striking range of the playoffs. A return to form for goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and a big step forward points-wise from defenceman Owen Power would allow Buffalo the chance to perhaps even threaten for a top three spot in the Atlantic Division, but that’s putting the cart way before the horse. There are zero questions about the talent level, but plenty of questions about how to make the talent work best.
What Could Go Wrong?
If the special teams continue to struggle and if Luukkonen’s goaltending falters again, it could be yet another long season in Buffalo. The team cannot afford to get off to a slow start and must avoid any extended losing streaks to keep up with the playoff race. Their 0-10-3 stretch during November and December last season virtually eliminated them from playoff contention because the hole they fell in was too deep to get out of. It took Boston faltering even harder to get Buffalo out of last place in the Atlantic. The Sabres are relying on Josh Norris returning healthy, for Jiri Kulich to take a step forward and Ryan McLeod to repeat what he did last season for their center depth to lead the way. It’s not exactly asking a lot, but it’s not an easy ask just the same. The number of “if” statements attached to them for things to work out is uncomfortable.
Top Breakout Candidate
When last season began, it wasn’t a definite that Jiri Kulich was going to be part of the Sabres roster, but he quickly made sure to do the right things to stay in Buffalo. His 15 goals and nine assists in 62 games and ability to play well enough at center to earn a spot on the top line late in the season with Thompson and Zach Benson. Kulich’s history in the AHL showed he can fill the net (24 and 27 goals in his 18-year and 19-year-old seasons) and there is more growth to come for the 21-year-old Czech with an elite shot. If he earns more power play time and continues to play minutes in the top six, the chances will pile up for him to score more.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 77 | 46 | 32 | 78 | 1.01 |
If there were any worries about whether Tage Thompson would be able to regain his goal scoring prowess after seeing his goal total fall to 29 in 2023-2024 from his career-high 47 in 2022-2023, they disappeared in 2024-2025. Thompson led the Sabres with 44 goals last season and returned to his electrifying ways of filling the net. What’s more impressive is he did it while leading the league with 37 even strength goals. It might be viewed as worrisome that he posted just seven power play goals, but the Sabres power play struggled all season (ninth worst in the NHL) trying to find cohesion. You’d have to imagine that if their power play struggles get hammered out and Thompson is able to fire blasts from the circle at will again that his goal totals could jump even higher. What’s most striking about how Thompson was able to fill the net again is he did it mostly from the wing after he was moved there following a lower-body injury early last season. He teamed up with Jiri Kulich and Zach Benson late in the season and thrived on Kulich’s right side. His move to wing opens up questions elsewhere in the lineup, but the results from seeing him light it up again from a different position are hard to argue. Thompson was the Sabres leading scorer with 72 points in 76 games and despite not being named to the United States roster for the Four Nations Face-Off, his performance leading the U.S. to gold at World Championships may help land him a spot on the Olympic team in February.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 38 | 35 | 73 | 0.89 |
Alex Tuch proved last season that he can excel at both ends of the ice and provided a bright spot in what was a gloomy season for the team in Buffalo. Tuch was second on the Sabres with 36 goals and was tied with Rangers forward Vincent Trocheck for most shorthanded goals with six. Tuch’s two-way game shined as he used his long reach and big body to take away shot and pass lanes on the penalty kill as well as the forecheck. His ability to make teams pay for turning the puck over was vital on the Sabres’ ability to frustrate teams while shorthanded. Tuch had 67 points which made him fourth on the team in scoring. Even though he was able to help drive the Sabres offence a couple of seasons ago playing on the wing with Tage Thompson, he found success last season playing with Ryan McLeod and Peyton Krebs during the second half of the season. Coach Lindy Ruff was looking for lines that could generate offence and still be sensible defensively and that allowed Tuch to settle into a role on a line with guys who can generally play well in their own ends. With Tuch having that ability to finish in the offensive end of the ice, it helped lift up his linemates who aren’t generally counted on to contribute offensively. In Tuch’s case, it cracked open his natural ability to frustrate opponents with his size and reach defensively and to use that to his advantage at both ends of the ice. Tuch is entering the final year of his contract with the Sabres, and a big payday is on the horizon.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 65 | 22 | 24 | 46 | 0.71 |
The Sabres acquisition of former 35-goal scorer Josh Norris came in one of the bigger trades ahead of the deadline last season when they sent 2019 first-round pick Dylan Cozens to Ottawa for him. Norris’s career with the Senators was much maligned due to repeated shoulder injuries and surgeries and although those ailments appear to be behind him for now, his time with Buffalo was cut short last season due to an oblique injury he attempted to play through. Norris had a goal and an assist in three games with the Sabres after he put up 20 goals and 13 assists with Ottawa. Although he’s a center, Norris is a shooter more than a playmaker and where he figures to fit into the lineup is one of the bigger mysteries of the new season. Although he’ll play in the top six forward group, who his wingers will end up being is something worth watching out for. He’ll have a lot of options between Zach Benson, Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Jack Quinn, Jason Zucker and Josh Doan, but the Sabres will need to have Norris healthy more than anything else. In the past, Norris has shown himself to be a dynamite offensive player with a good shot and solid puck skills. It’s unfortunate he couldn’t get more of an introduction with his teammates last season, but if the Sabres are going to end their 14-year playoff drought, they’ll need him on the ice so as to not thin out their center group.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 19 | 35 | 54 | 0.66 |
Contract years tend to bring out the best in players and in Ryan McLeod’s case that was an exemplary truth. McLeod had a career-high 20 goals and 53 points after coming over from the Edmonton Oilers. He proved to be one of the most versatile players in the Sabres lineup as he was able to play center on any of the four lines, on the power play and most especially shorthanded. His speed and tenacity on the forecheck made him frustrating for opponents to get away from and no longer being pigeonholed as a solely checking line player proved to be advantageous to Buffalo given his massively increased offensive output. His great season earned him a four-year, $20 million restricted free agent deal. Considering the reaction to the trade that brought him to Buffalo in which he was swapped one-for-one with 2022 ninth overall pick Matthew Savoie was overwhelmingly negative for the Sabres, McLeod’s huge season and overall performance has helped make it out to be one of Buffalo general manager Kevyn Adams’s savvier trades. What’s worth watching now is how McLeod performs with higher expectations put upon him thanks to the new contract. Whether he’s centering the second, third or fourth lines or playing on the wing, the Sabres are content knowing they’ll get the same effort out of him regardless.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 70 | 17 | 26 | 43 | 0.61 |
A year ago, Jason Zucker was the Sabres most noteworthy free agent signing and he came as advertised and provided a sorely needed veteran presence in the locker room for a very young team. Zucker had 21 goals and 32 assists and was the team’s leading scorer on the power play with 11 goals. He found a lot of success being around the net tipping pucks and cleaning up rebounds His speed and hockey know how injected an air of confidence into the lineup they sorely needed up front while some of their younger players struggled adapting to Lindy Ruff’s coaching style. After the Sabres bought out Jeff Skinner last summer, adding Zucker to replace his production while also giving them a player who can help better perform defensively was a needed change. Even though there were questions about where Zucker would best fit into the lineup, like Ryan McLeod, it didn’t necessarily matter which line he was on because he was going to play the same way no matter what. Although Zucker could’ve been a prime trade piece at the deadline, he signed a two-year, $9.5 million extension to stay with the Sabres. At 33 years old, he’s the Sabres oldest player. Make no mistake, his presence is vital to their young group in helping stay grounded and loose. His versatility in being able to play anywhere in the lineup makes him even more valuable to them.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 73 | 21 | 14 | 35 | 0.48 |
Among the many young players that make up the Sabres lineup, the emergence of Jiri Kulich in the NHL last season was a key one for their future. After he spent the past two seasons in the American Hockey League, Kulich forced his way into the Sabres lineup with his ability to handle play at center and his elite shot. He had 15 goals and nine assists in 62 games with the Sabres which doesn’t totally grab people’s attention, but when you consider he spent the latter part of the season as their No. 1 center between Zach Benson and Tage Thompson, it becomes a fair bit more impressive to take in. Kulich was the third of three first-round picks the Sabres made in 2022 and the 28th overall pick established a reputation as a goal scorer in the AHL as he put up 24 and 27 goals the previous two seasons. Although he was drafted and believed to be a winger, he’s taken to playing center by improving his attention to detail defensively and improving his work on faceoffs. Now 21 years old, Kulich is among the younger players on the roster but after proving his capabilities last season and showing that his offensive capabilities carried over from the AHL, it’ll be worth watching to see how his game grows in his second full NHL season, especially with the possibility of playing for Czechia in the Olympics on the horizon.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 79 | 21 | 24 | 45 | 0.57 |
After coming off a season in which he missed half of it recovering from a torn Achilles tendon and then even more time with a broken leg afterwards, Jack Quinn was poised for a return to health and goal scoring form last season. But the change from Don Granato to Lindy Ruff as head coach didn’t go as smoothly for him. Despite all of that bad-sounding news, Quinn posted career-highs with 15 goals and 24 assists and 39 points in 74 games. The numbers outpaced his rookie season performance, which is good, but being two years removed from that makes it a bit of a downer. His pace was off and the attention to detail in his defensive game lapsed at times which didn’t help with his new head coach. Quinn signed a two-year, $6.75 million contract in the offseason that will function as a prove-it deal for him. Staying healthy like he did last season will go a long way to helping him do that. His shot creativity and ability to score off the rush are high end and when he’s playing at the top of his game he’s a dangerous scorer, but being able to stay consistent will be necessary. Now that Tage Thompson is on the wing, it makes things a bit more crowded on the right side with Thompson and Alex Tuch also on the right side. That said, now that both Dylan Cozens and J.J. Peterka are gone, the center Quinn fits best with is worth keeping an eye on be it Jiri Kulich, Josh Norris or Ryan McLeod.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 77 | 12 | 24 | 36 | 0.47 |
If there’s one player up front to really watch to see how their game evolves this season, it’s Zach Benson. Benson was a big-time scorer in the WHL who used his offensive smarts, skill and ability to frustrate defenders with his tenaciousness. The latter trait has more than carried over into the NHL as he’s become an effective forechecker and penalty killer on top of being someone at the middle of many scrums after the whistle. Last season with Buffalo, Benson had 10 goals and 18 assists, numbers that were very slightly down from his rookie year. Benson just turned 20 in May and is headed into his third NHL season and that he made the Sabres roster as an 18-year-old said a lot about him and the Sabres alike. His dogged style of play, however, has endeared him to fans and earned respect from his coaches. He’s been a classic “if everyone played like him, they’d be doing great” kind of player, but for him to take his game to another level he must increase his offensive output. If Benson’s game evolves by continuing to do things that make him more like similarly statured players in the league like Brad Marchand, it would make for a massive change for the overall performance and attitude of the Sabres. If he continues to hover around the net and wreaks havoc, the goals will come.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 78 | 12 | 20 | 32 | 0.41 |
With the departure of J.J. Peterka to Utah, Josh Doan will be viewed as having some big skates to fill to help make up for the loss in scoring. At 23 years old, Doan’s NHL career is just getting started, however. Doan played 51 of his 62 career games last season and had seven goals and 12 assists while playing a third-or-fourth line role. He’s best known for his intense forechecking ability and getting in on plays deep in the zone to frustrate opposing defenders trying to exit the zone. He’s strong and quick and during his time playing at Arizona State and the AHL, showed a solid scoring touch. If he can see more of that translate over to the NHL, the Sabres will be very happy to see it although they’ll be satisfied having a guy that plays as hard as he does. It’s expected that Doan will play lower in the Sabres lineup either on the third or fourth lines, but having him work with guys like Peyton Krebs, Jordan Greenway or Beck Malenstyn could help give Buffalo a tough and annoying line to deal with each game. Being Shane Doan’s son, he might set a high bar for expectations for some, but Josh’s game should fit in well with what Lindy Ruff ideally wants to see the team play like.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 80 | 20 | 50 | 70 | 0.88 |
If fans weren’t aware of how good a defenceman Rasmus Dahlin was already, watching him or tracking his stats last season would’ve done the trick. Dahlin was a dominant presence for the Sabres and finished tied for second on the team in scoring with J.J. Peterka with 68 points in 73 games. He led Sabres defencemen in scoring, goals (17) and assists (51) as well as average time on-ice (24:14). For comparison’s sake, the Sabres’ other nine defencemen combined to score 23 goals. To say everything runs through Dahlin would be putting it lightly. What’s more remarkable about Dahlin’s performance last season is that virtually every defenceman who paired with him during the year saw their own performances improve greatly because of it. Dahlin’s play was noticeable enough to land him sixth in the voting by the PHWA for the Norris Trophy as the league’s best defenceman. With the puck on Dahlin’s stick and in control of the play up and down the ice, the Sabres’ best chances to score goals and win games comes when he’s on the ice. With Bo Byram re-signed and the addition of Michael Kesselring and Conor Timmins to the blue line corps, it remains to be seen who will start the season as Dahlin’s partner, but you’d have to think it would start with Byram who had some of his best play of the season alongside Dahlin. Regardless of who gets the call, however, expect Dahlin to continue to grow into one of the best defencemen in the league.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 78 | 9 | 36 | 45 | 0.58 |
There’s a big step forward in Owen Power’s game that’s coming and it’s just a matter of when it will happen. Power had seven goals and 33 assists in 79 games last season and was second among Sabres defencemen in scoring behind Rasmus Dahlin. It was a career-year offensively for him, but fans are waiting for his game to take a leap forward the way Dahlin’s has. Although his defensive numbers weren’t as strong as you’d like to see, a lot of what he does very well to disrupt opponents doesn’t necessarily get tabulated in stats. This only serves to help make arguments about him get a bit heated. As an extremely smart player with and without the puck, Power can make elite plays with regularity. His size, reach and agility make him frustrating to play against for puck carriers and shooters, and now with the addition of Michael Kesselring and Conor Timmins, the hope for the Sabres is they’ve found a regular right-handed partner for Power to pair up with. Over his first few seasons in the league, he’s had a regular rotation of defence partners and a theory for his occasional struggles centered around the lack of consistency there. Expect to see Kesselring with him this season at some point if not immediately in camp.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 8 | 33 | 41 | 0.50 |
When the Sabres acquired Bo Byram from Colorado two seasons ago, the hope was they added a player who would give them one of the most formidable defence units in the NHL. Last season, we saw a lot from Byram that helped encourage that belief. Byram had seven goals and a career-high 31 assists last season to set a new career-high in scoring with 38 points. As a lefthanded shot, Byram fitting into the Sabres lineup can be tricky with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and Mattias Samuelsson also being lefthanded. But when he paired with Dahlin, we got a chance to see some of what helped make him such a highly sought-after player. Byram’s ability to carry the puck through all three zones and his offensive instincts were noticeable while he worked with Dahlin and the quick moving play they developed together also didn’t necessarily hurt them defensively either. Although that pairing didn’t stick together all season, this summer’s additions might allow for them to be reunited on the top pairing. That Byram is back in Buffalo is a bit of a surprise. He was the subject of trade rumors throughout the offseason because of his restricted free agent status and the fact that Dahlin and Power are responsible for most of the five-on-five and power play time, but he signed a two-year, $12.5 million deal to avoid arbitration that will also walk him to unrestricted free agency when it ends. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to show what he can do until then.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 5 | 22 | 27 | 0.33 |
When the Sabres made their offseason trade with the Utah Mammoth to send J.J. Peterka out of town, the main player general manager Kevyn Adams zeroed in on was Michael Kesselring. This might sound a bit strange, but the reasons for going after the 6-foot-5 righthanded defenceman make a lot of sense. Kesselring has been a bit of a late bloomer since he was drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the sixth round in 2018. He spent three seasons in the AHL after he was signed by Edmonton out of Northeastern University and then was sent to Arizona in the Nick Bjugstad trade in 2023. With the Coyotes and Utah Hockey Club, however, he was able to grow and become a steady defensive defenceman who also possesses a powerful slap shot. In 82 games with Utah last season, Kesselring had seven goals and 22 assists as well as 89 penalty minutes thanks to his physical play and willingness to fight when called on. That kind of edge has been lacking overall from the Sabres lineup, but especially on the blue line. The hope is he’ll be able to pair with Owen Power and mind the defensive side of the game to a point to better allow Power the freedom to create more offensively and boost the Sabres attack further.
| Predicted Stats | ||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | SO | SV% | GAA |
| 48 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 3 | .905 | 3.05 |
Of all the league's starting goaltenders who stayed in place throughout the year, no one struggled more mightily than Buffalo's Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Cornered by a Sabres lineup that featured a limited-usage James Reimer and a still-developing Devon Levi, Luukkonen was left to shoulder the lion's share of the starts - and the result left Buffalo floundering as the agile but highly mobile Luukkonen struggled to find a flow amidst poor defence and growing fatigue. His numbers aren't entirely his fault; his game play looked like a severe mismatch with the defensive strategy in front of him, forcing extra scrambling for soft rebounds and limited sightlines for a goaltender who relies on his agility to get him where he needs to go in the nick of time.
In what seems to be a signal that Buffalo doesn't want to hamper Devon Levi's development, though, the Sabres have brought experienced veteran backup Alex Lyon into the fold to help weather the storm this year. At best, he can serve as a reliable, steadying technical presence during stretches in order to give Luukkonen a break without prematurely throwing Levi to the wolves full-time. And in a worst-case scenario, Luukkonen might end up being the odd man out, leaving Levi and Lyon to handle the workload for larger chunks of time. Either way, the Buffalo crease doesn't necessarily look set for the long term - but it does look like things might be less hectic for Luukkonen, at least for this year.
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There are a number of teams that have effectively lost all hope of making the playoffs, but at the time of writing, only one team has been mathematically eliminated from postseason contention: The San Jose Sharks.
It’s the sixth straight year without a playoff berth for San Jose, which is by far the largest stretch of failure in the franchise’s history -- from the inaugural season in 1991-92 through 2018-19, the Sharks had missed the playoffs just six times in total -- and yet there’s a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.
Macklin Celebrini has lived up to the hype in his rookie campaign with 21 goals and 50 points through 57 appearances, and the 22-year-old William Eklund is shaping up to be another strong member of the Sharks’ future with 15 goals and 50 points in 64 outings. They’re also seeing some preliminary success from 19-year-old Will Smith, who has provided 13 goals and 35 points in 61 appearances. We should also soon see Cameron Lund make his NHL debut after signing an entry-level contract with the Sharks on Friday. Perhaps the Sharks will try pairing Lund up with Eklund after the 20-year-old Lund supplied 18 goals and 40 points in 37 outings with Northeastern University this year.
In the long run, that young core of forwards might be backed up by 22-year-old netminder Yaroslav Askarov, who has struggled with the rebuilding Sharks (3.10 GAA, .896 save percentage in 13 outings), but has looked solid at the AHL level this campaign (2.52 GAA, .922 save percentage in 19 games).
If some of their other top prospects like Quentin Musty and Sam Dickinson work out, and the Sharks get value out of their four picks in the top two rounds of the 2025 and 2026 drafts, then San Jose could start moving in an upward trajectory quickly.
The only issue is that they have a lot of ground to gain. There’s a good chance the Sharks will finish with 60 or lower points for a third straight campaign. On the one hand, it’s a stretch that’s allowed them to put their full force into rebuilding, but there’s always the danger of falling into the Buffalo Sabres trap, where success always seems to be just around the corner.
An eventful summer might be the key for the Sharks, especially because the Sharks are currently swimming in cap space. They do need to be mindful of the big raises that Eklund, Celebrini and Smith will be due if all goes as hoped, but Celebrini and Smith won’t test the market for the first time until the summer of 2027, while Eklund will remain on his entry-level contract for the 2025-26 campaign, so there is a window here for the Sharks to spend. Their cap flexibility is also made a little easier by the fact that Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s $7 million contract comes off the books in the summer of 2026 and Couture’s $8 million cap hit ends after 2026-27, which will help offset some of those raises.
That will allow them to be aggressive on the UFA market, and it also opens the door for San Jose to potentially leverage some of its picks for veteran players. So, while the Sharks have some largely meaningless games ahead of them, this might end up being the summer of GM Mike Grier.
It seems cruel to cite the Sabres as a cautionary tale whenever teams like the Sharks are in the midst of a rebuild, but that’s what they are. With a 27-34-6 record through Thursday’s action, Buffalo sits at the bottom of the Eastern Conference and is on course to miss the playoffs for a 14th straight season. That’s the longest postseason drought in the history of the league.
The Sabres will at least attempt to finish the season on a somewhat positive note. They’ll host Ottawa and Pittsburgh on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, before heading on the road to visit Philadelphia on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.
Buffalo’s single biggest issue this campaign has been an inability to keep the puck out of the net. The Sabres rank 29th in goals allowed per game with 3.52. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who managed a solid 2.57 GAA and a .910 save percentage in 54 appearances in 2023-24, hasn’t looked nearly as impressive this campaign, going 23-21-4 with a 3.16 GAA and an .888 save percentage.
It's tempting to say that the team in front of him has been the source of Luukkonen’s woes, and there’s certainly some backing for that assumption. The Sabres rank 29th in xGA/60 at 3.35, per Moneypuck, which implies that the defense has been making life miserable for the goaltenders. However, Luukkonen can’t completely escape blame. He also has a minus-4.6 goals saved above expected, which suggests that he’s been putting forth below average performances, and that’s compounded Buffalo’s already significant defensive issues. That’s also in contrast to 2023-24 when Luukkonen finished with a plus-9.4 goals saved above expected.
Buffalo has already made a long-term commitment to Luukkonen, albeit with a $4.75 million cap hit through 2028-29, which is on the low end for a veteran starter and is expected to get even more reasonable as the cap goes up. If he ends up needing to slide into a backup role, that contract will look like an overpay, but not to the point where it’s an anchor on Buffalo’s cap situation.
The ideal would be if Devon Levi lives up to the promise he showed in the NCAA, but so far the 23-year-old has left plenty to be desired in the NHL, posting a 3.29 GAA and an .894 save percentage through 39 appearances. Goaltenders tend to take longer to develop than any other NHL position, so it would be premature to write him off, but Buffalo assuming that a Luukkonen-Levi duo will eventually lead the franchise to the playoffs might be dangerous -- the potential is there, but it’s far from a sure thing.
That’s a long-term concern for Buffalo. In the short run, the Sabres can at least enjoy Ryan McLeod’s hot streak. He’s recorded a point in five straight games and has been held off the scoresheet just once over his last seven appearances, giving him two goals and seven points in that span. He’s set career highs in goals (16) and points (38) in his first campaign with Buffalo after being acquired from Edmonton, and the 25-year-old should be a solid presence for years to come while primarily centering the third line under ideal circumstances.
Detroit has won just two of its past 10 games, putting the Red Wings playoff hopes in serious jeopardy. They’ll need to do well next week to avoid slipping out of the postseason picture. The Red Wings will start on the road, facing Utah on Monday and Colorado on Tuesday. Detroit will then return home to host the Senators on Thursday and the Bruins on Saturday.
Buffalo’s postseason drought is the one that get the most attention, but Detroit hasn’t been to the postseason since 2016, so there are significant stakes to the Red Wings’ playoff run, especially because they’re not exactly a rebuilding squad anymore. Lucas Raymond (23 goals, 69 points) is still just 22 years old, while Dylan Larkin (28, 60) and Alex DeBrincat (31, 58) are in their late 20s, so Detroit’s core forwards aren’t old, but they’re not emerging prospects either. Two of Detroit’s top four defensemen (Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson) are under 25, but they are supplemented by aging veterans (Ben Chiarot, Jeff Petry).
Detroit does still have players that will get better with time. I’m very interested to see what the future holds for 20-year-old rookie Marco Kasper, who has 13 goals, 27 points, 30 PIM and 123 hits in 63 appearances this campaign, but Detroit is beyond the point where it can just shrug and say that short-term losing is a byproduct of the process.
Patrick Kane should be in no mood to be patient at the age of 36. He exploded with a five-point effort March 12 to lead Detroit past Buffalo. Kane also had a three-point showing March 1 versus Columbus, but he’s been inconsistent recently, so don’t look at his 11 points (three goals) in nine games this month and assume he’s red hot. The truth is more nuanced. Unfortunately, Detroit has lacked a steady hand on offense recently, which is a reflection of the team’s recent struggles overall.
Petr Mrazek, who was acquired from Chicago, has been given the opportunity to take over as Detroit’s starter. He’s got the nod in each of Detroit’s past four games, but the results have been mixed. He did post an 18-save shutout over Vegas on Sunday, but he also allowed at least three goals in each of the other three starts. Overall, he has a 2-2-0 record, 2.51 GAA and .901 save percentage in four appearances since joining Detroit. Still, Cam Talbot (2.96 GAA, .900 save percentage) and Alex Lyon (2.77 GAA, .900 save percentage) haven’t given Detroit much to be happy about this campaign, so Mrazek might continue to act as the Red Wings’ primary choice going forward.
The Kings sit third in the Pacific Division with a 37-21-9 record, but they still have a shot at catching Edmonton (40-24-5) and maybe even Vegas (40-20-8). The Kings will need a solid week to keep those prospects healthy. They’ll start by hosting the Rangers on Tuesday before playing in Colorado on Thursday. Afterward, the Kings will return home to face the Maple Leafs on Saturday and the Sharks on Sunday.
The Kings managed just four goals across eight games from March 13-20, so they don’t have any hot forwards. Kevin Fiala is about as close as you can find with a goal and three points over that four-game stretch, but he’s also been held off the scoresheet in seven of his past 12 contests, so his recent play is nothing to get excited over.
Meanwhile, Phillip Danault has just a goal and four points across his past 13. This is shaping up to be a disappointing campaign for him overall. He has just six goals in 66 games with a shooting percentage of 5.5, which is on course to be his lowest ever, excluding the two games he played in 2014-15. He also has no power-play points after recording 20 in 2022-23 and nine in 2023-24. On the one hand, he’s averaging 1:20 with the man advantage, the lowest of his four seasons with LA, which limits his chances, but Danault also hasn’t given the Kings much reason to use him more on the power play, so it’s a bit of a chicken and the egg issue. Either way, this campaign is looking like it’ll go down as a wash for Danault, and he certainly has been part of the issue for the Kings’ recent offensive drought, recording no points over the past four games.
This would be a bad stretch for the Kings, except Darcy Kuemper stopped 81 of 84 shots (.964 save percentage) while starting in those four games, and LA won three of those outings as a result. The 34-year-old goaltender is now 23-9-7 with a 2.13 GAA and a .918 save percentage in 40 appearances. In terms of GAA, this could be the best campaign of his career, excluding 2012-13 when he appeared in just six games. That’s quite a turnaround from 2023-24 (3.31 GAA, .890 save percentage), and it has to be said that Kuemper has a plus-15 goals saved above expected, which ranks 13th in the league, so this isn’t exclusively a case of him benefiting from strong defensively play in front of him -- though, the Kings do have a league-best 2.61 xGA/60, so the defense has been doing its part too.
Minnesota has a healthy edge in the battle for a wild-card spot, especially after winning its past two games. The Wild will look to build on their recent momentum when they play in Dallas on Monday. Minnesota will also host Vegas, Washington and New Jersey on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, respectively.
Although Minnesota is likely to make the playoffs, the extended absence of Kirill Kaprizov (lower body) has been felt. He’s appeared in just three games dating back to Dec. 27, and Minnesota is a mediocre 18-15-1 over that span while averaging just 2.50 goals per game. By contrast, the Wild went 21-10-4 while averaging 2.94 goals per game over their first 35 contests, which is a stretch when Kaprizov provided 23 goals and 50 points in 34 appearances (missing one game).
To make matters worse, Joel Eriksson Ek hasn’t played since Feb. 22 due to a lower-body injury. Coach John Hynes said Monday that Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek were progressing off ice, per Dylan Loucks of The Hockey News, which is mixed news. Any progress is good progress, but if they’re not skating yet, then they’re probably not close to returning. With so little time left in the campaign, I have to wonder if Minnesota is now simply looking ahead to the playoffs when it comes to Kaprizov. Maybe he’ll get into a few games toward the end of the regular season just to shake off the rust, but that might be all we can hope for.
At least Ryan Hartman is back from his eight-game suspension. He’s recorded three goals and six points in eight appearances since returning from his punishment. He also averaged 16:31 of ice time in that span, up from 15:00, as the Wild deal with injuries.
Minnesota also attempted to get help by acquiring Gustav Nyquist from Nashville on March 1, but that hasn’t moved the needle. Nyquist has registered just two assists in nine outings with Minnesota despite averaging 16:02 since the trade. He might see his role reduced once Eriksson Ek and Kaprizov are ready to return, especially if Nyquist doesn’t start heating up.
To wrap up on a somber note, we’re likely watching the final games of Marc-Andre Fleury. He hasn’t played much recently -- his last start was March 9 -- but the Wild do have a back-to-back coming Monday and Tuesday, so he’ll likely make his 885th career start and 1,048th appearance on one of those two nights. Fleury has solid backup at the age of 40, posting a 12-8-1 record, 2.73 GAA and .904 save percentage in 22 outings this campaign.
The Devils have been treading water lately, winning four of their past nine games. At this point, they’re unlikely to catch Carolina for the second seed in the Metropolitan Division, but the Devils are still likely to secure the third seed. In the meantime, they’ll start next week at home against Vancouver. The Devils will then hit the road, playing in Chicago on Wednesday, Winnipeg on Friday and Minnesota on Saturday.
Like Minnesota, New Jersey is dealing with some major injuries. Dougie Hamilton (lower body) hasn’t played since March 4 (he logged just 5:15 before exiting that March 4th game), and Jack Hughes (shoulder) was last in the lineup March 2.
New Jersey has gone 4-4-0 without Hamilton and Hughes, including the contest Hamilton was only briefly a part of in contrast to the Devils’ 33-23-6 record across their first 62 games. It’d be natural to assume their middling play lately has been as a result of a drop in offense, similar to what Minnesota has experienced, but the Devils have managed 2.88 goals per game over their last eight games, which isn’t much of a decline from their 2.98 before Hughes’ injury.
Instead, the problem has been at their own end. Jacob Markstrom has a 4.67 GAA and an .817 save percentage across his past five appearances. That leaky play has taken some of the shine out of the heroics from Jesper Bratt (three goals, 10 points in his past five games) and Luke Hughes (one goal, seven points in his past eight appearances).
Jake Allen has looked good, though, winning his past three starts while saving 99 of 103 shots (.961 save percentage). That contrast between New Jersey’s two goaltenders has resulted in Markstrom shifting from being the clear starter to serving in a rotation. I don’t expect that arrangement to persist for the remainder of the campaign, but it’ll probably last until Markstrom finds his footing again.
The Devils certainly have to hope Markstrom comes out of this cold patch sooner rather than later. While there is light at the end of the tunnel for Minnesota on the injury front -- albeit a distance light -- Jack Hughes isn’t expected back until training camp, and Hamilton probably won’t return until the second round at the earliest, provided the Devils make it that far. What they have now is all they can count on. Fortunately for New Jersey, Bratt, Nico Hischier and Timo Meier is still a solid forward core, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that trio do well down the stretch, and Luke Hughes is a great alternative to Hamilton on the top power-play unit, which should result in Luke having a strong finish offensively.
The Islanders have won their past three games, pushing them within striking distance of a wild-card spot. New York needs to stay hot next week to close the gap. They’ll start with a home game against Columbus, which is another team in the hunt for an Eastern Conference wild-card position. The Blue Jackets will also play at home against Vancouver on Wednesday before traveling to Tampa Bay on Saturday and Carolina on Sunday.
New York squeaking into the playoffs would be particularly impressive after they traded Brock Nelson to Colorado on March 6 in a where the key pieces back were prospect Calum Ritchie and a first-round pick. It’s not like the Islanders had offense to spare…or so you’d assume, but they’ve been getting help from unexpected sources lately.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau has a goal and six points while Simon Holmstrom has three goals and five points across the Islanders’ seven games since the trade. Both players are usually more complementary pieces when it comes to offense, but they do get on these kinds of hot streaks, making them nice situational pickups during times such as this.
Defensemen Noah Dobson and Anthony DeAngelo have also been major contributors during the same stretch, recording seven and six points, respectively. It’s been interesting that Dobson’s return from injury Feb. 27 hasn’t marginalized DeAngelo’s contributions. Rather than shift DeAngelo to the second power-play unit to make room for Dobson, the Islanders seem comfortable having two defensemen on their top group with the man advantage. DeAngelo has also continued to be used at even strength, averaging 22:18 of ice time in all situations since the return of Dobson.
DeAngelo’s always been a lightning rod for controversy, but it seems he’s found a good spot with the Islanders, and he should continue to be a meaningful contributor for the remainder of the campaign.
The Senators put themselves in a good spot by winning six straight from March 5-15, but they’ve hit a rough patch with back-to-back losses. The Senators still hold the first wild-card spot, but they can’t afford to relax. They have an opportunity to collect some key points next week against teams not currently in a playoff position. Ottawa will play in Buffalo on Tuesday, Detroit on Thursday and Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Senators will also host the Blue Jackets on Saturday.
Dylan Cozens has worked out pretty nicely in Ottawa since being acquired from Buffalo on March 7. He has three goals and six points in seven appearances with the Senators despite seeing his average playing time drop from 17:13 before the trade to 15:23 since joining the Ottawa. Cozens seems to be settling into a second-line center role with Ottawa, which isn’t surprising. He should get most of his minutes alongside Drake Batherson and David Perron for the remainder of the campaign, though Cozens is also getting work on the top power-play unit and has already provided two goals with the man advantage for Ottawa.
Batherson has been a good player to skate alongside recently. He enjoyed a four-game scoring streak from March 11-18 in which he supplied three goals and six points, but that run was snapped Thursday. The 26-year-old is up to 19 goals and 55 points in 68 outings overall, making it very likely that he’ll reach the 20-goal and 60-point marks for the third straight campaign. In fact, he still has a solid chance of besting his career high of 66 points, which he set last year.
Perron also has been solid recently with four goals and seven points in his past 10 appearances. The 36-year-old missed significant chunks of the campaign, so it’s not too surprising that he was limited to a goal and four points in 11 outings from Jan. 11 (when he returned from a 27-game absence due to back problem) through Feb. 26. Now that the veteran has been able to string together a significant number of games for the first time all season, we’re seeing steady production out of him, and there’s a good chance that’ll continue for the rest of the season, barring another exit from the lineup.
Ottawa’s top line, headlined by Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle, will be the main drivers of the Senators’ offense, but don’t underestimate that second unit of Perron, Cozens and Batherson.
Toronto has won its past three games, putting behind a rough stretch in which the Maple Leafs won just one of six contests. The Maple Leafs are competing with Florida for the Atlantic Division title. Toronto will look for an edge in that battle next week, beginning with a home game against the Flyers on Tuesday. Toronto will then go on the road, playing in San Jose on Thursday, Los Angeles on Saturday and Anaheim on Sunday.
Even after a run of four goals from March 15-19, Auston Matthews is still on course for career lows with his goal total of 27 and his shooting percentage of 12.4. He’s been limited to 54 games this campaign, and it seems probable he’s playing through something even now, but even Matthews at less than 100 percent is still a high-end option. It helps that he’s pivoted to setting up his teammates a little more to make up for the reduced goal scoring -- he has 34 assists, so in terms of points per 60 minutes, his 3.3 this year is a touch low by his standards, but still well within the range of what’d you’d expect from him.
There’s a good chance he’ll come back strong next season with another 40-plus campaign, and he might even hit 60 for the third time in his career in 2025-26. However, the 27-year-old has run into more injuries problems than one would like over the first half of his career, which makes projecting him somewhat difficult.
Mitch Marner has been the steadier hand in Toronto in terms of season-by-season production. This will be his fourth straight campaign with over 20 goals and 80 points. One thing he’s never managed is reaching the 100-point mark, though he came close in 2021-22 (97) and 2022-23 (99). He might be able to just barely hit it this season after supplying 21 goals and 83 points through 68 appearances.
Marner needs to get hot again to hit the century mark, but right now, he’s not the hottest member of the Leafs. Neither is Matthews, for that matter. That distinction belongs to William Nylander, who has five goals and 15 points in his last 11 appearances. That brings him up to 38 markers and 73 points in 69 outings overall.
Nylander also reached the 600-point career milestone Thursday when he assisted on a goal by John Tavares. That was career point 1,098 for Tavares, and the 34-year-old center went on to collect two more points, making it a milestone night for him as well. Tavares has 29 goals and 60 points in 62 appearances in 2024-25, bringing him up to 213 goals and 479 points in 502 games. If you had told someone immediately after Tavares signed a seven-year, $77 million contract with Toronto that he would decline over the final couple of years, they would have likely believed you. However, while Tavares did show his age somewhat in 2023-24, he’s continuing to produce at a high level even in the final campaign of that deal. It’ll be very interesting to see what kind of contract he commands over the summer, because he still seems to have good hockey left in him.
Toronto’s offense revolves around that core, and unfortunately no one outside of it steps up for more than brief periods. Matthew Knies is Toronto’s next best producer with 25 goals and 45 points, but he’s going through a mediocre stretch in which he’s supplied a goal and four points over his past eight games. Max Domi and Bobby McMann have been similarly meh lately, each contributing two goals and four points over the same eight-game span. All three are worth monitoring as pickup options during hot streaks, but they can’t be counted on to put up strong numbers over a longer period.
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How should we define the 2024-25 Buffalo Sabres? On paper, they’re not a terrible team. Tage Thompson is an elite goal scorer, and Alex Tuch is a good first-line forward and well suited to being Thompson’s accomplish. Rasmus Dahlin, though currently out with a back injury, is a high-end offensive blueliner, and the Sabres also have two promising young defensemen on the rise in Owen Power and Bowen Byram. In net, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has shown that he can be a solid option.
This isn’t a good team either, though. The Sabres do have some offensive depth, especially with Jason Zucker enjoying a comeback campaign (seven goals and 20 points through 29 appearances), but their overall scoring still isn’t anything special. The blueliners do have a mixture of talent and promise, but as a squad, the Sabres have struggled on defense, as evidenced by the team ranking 22nd in xGA/60 (3.13) per Moneypuck. Those shortcomings have trickled down to Luukkonen, who has an 8-8-3 record, 2.79 GAA and .903 save percentage in 20 starts despite a passable plus-2.6 goals saved above expected.
More than anything, Buffalo is inconsistent. Sometimes this group can click, which led to Buffalo looking like a potential contender for a playoff spot earlier in the campaign, but other times they fall apart. Buffalo has lost its last eight games, dropping its record to 11-14-4.
That kind of inconsistency would be more forgivable if Buffalo was a rebuilding team, but is that still an appropriate definition for the Sabres? They certainly do still have younger players like defensemen Power and Byram, forwards Dylan Cozens and Zach Benson as well as goaltender Devon Levi honing his game in the minors. None of those five have celebrated their 24th birthday yet, so it’s reasonable to believe their game will continue to grow.
At the same time, Tuch and Thompson are already in their prime, albeit in the early stages at 28 and 27 years old, respectively. Dahlin is still young but also in his seventh campaign, so ideally this is a foundation that should have started to get results by now.
But those results never come. You could easily make an argument that this is a rebuilding team even with those three either in or approaching their prime, but you could have made the argument that basically every Sabres team over the last decade has been a rebuilding squad. At some point, you need to transition from rebuild.
It’s been nine years since Jack Eichel was selected as the No. 2 overall pick to be the Sabres’ future. It’s been six years since Dahlin was selected as the No. 1 overall pick to headline Buffalo’s defense. It’s been four years since Power was taken with the top pick, giving the Sabres a potentially amazing blue-line duo. It’s been three years since that relationship soured to the point where Buffalo traded him to Vegas.
Buffalo hasn’t participated in a single playoff game over that span. That’d be bad enough, but the drought dates back even further. When Buffalo was last a playoff team in 2011, Tomas Vanek was the Sabres’ leading scorer and Thompson’s age. Tyler Ennis was among the team’s promising young forwards while Tyler Myers was a sophomore coming off a Calder Trophy-winning campaign. Ryan Miller was in his prime, having won the Vezina Trophy the previous year. Lindy Ruff was the bench boss… well, actually, that’s true now too… but there were six bench bosses for Buffalo between Ruff’s tenure with the team that ended during the 2012-13 campaign and his current assignment with the team.
The Sabres’ playoff appearance drought is the longest in NHL history. That’s got to way on the team, and you have to wonder if it will eventually lead to talented players getting frustrated in Buffalo as it has for others in the past. Still, it’s not as if this is a doomed team.
As stated at the top, there are positives to be found in this roster, and the place we’re judging the Sabres from now might be at or near their low point. There’s still season enough for them to turn this thing around. If they don’t, there is still hope for the future with this young group…even if that promise feels a little hollow after so many other failed rebuild attempts.
The Flames have just three games scheduled for next week, but all those contests are at home, and it’s a pretty favorable schedule. Boston, which the Flames will host Tuesday, did have a 7-2-0 stretch from Nov. 21-Dec. 7, but the Bruins’ have fallen back after big losses to Winnipeg and Seattle over their past two games. After facing the Bruins, Calgary will host Ottawa and Chicago on Thursday and Saturday, respectively. Neither of those adversaries are in a playoff position.
Jonathan Huberdeau’s eight-year, $84 million contract is looking like it might go down as one of the worst contracts in recent memory, but he’s at least hot at the moment, providing four goals and nine points across his past six appearances. Will he keep that up? It’s possible, but it’s hard to get too excited. His 11 goals and 21 points through 30 outings overall still puts him on pace to get 57 points, which isn’t bad, but it’s well below the type of numbers he put up in Florida. Additionally, he has a 21.6 shooting percentage compared to his career average of 12.5, so if anything, Huberdeau’s benefited from some good puck luck and is more likely to slow as the campaign progresses than maintain that overall scoring pace.
If Huberdeau has potentially overperformed, would Andrei Kuzmenko be at the other end of the spectrum? No one expects him to repeat his 39-goal, 74-point performance from 2022-23, but is his goal and 10 points through 28 outings in 2024-25 simply the result of bad luck? His 3.3 shooting percentage is unusually low, but I’m more concerned about his decline in shots. He’s averaging just 4.1 shots/60, down from 6.8 last year.
Of his 30 shots this campaign, 19 have been fired from high-danger locations, which does put him ahead of the league average for forwards of 12.8, so that is a little bit of a silver lining. He’s on track for 52 high-danger shots this campaign, which would be down from 60 last year, a drop of 13.3 percent, whereas his overall shot total is on track to finish at 82, compared to 121 in 2023-24, a decline of 32.2 percent. So a deeper dive suggests things might not be quite as bad as they seem -- at least in terms of shot quality -- but it’s still not good, just less bad.
It's fair to believe that Kuzmenko’s shooting percentage will climb as the campaign progresses, but unless he starts getting a bit more aggressive with the puck, I wouldn’t count on him putting up numbers sufficient to give him relevance in the majority of fantasy leagues.
We might see better from Nazem Kadri, though, at least relative to his current point pace. He has 10 goals and 19 points in 30 appearances this campaign, which is a far cry from his 75-point showing in 2023-24. Kadri has been a steady contributor recently, though, supplying five goals and 11 points through his past 13 outings. He’s not a safe bet to reach the 70-point milestone again, but he was getting significantly fewer assists than is normal early in the campaign, and that seems to be balancing out and is likely to continue to do so. There’s a good chance he’ll finish the season as Calgary’s scoring leader.
The Avalanche will start next week on the road, playing in Vancouver on Monday, San Jose on Thursday and Anaheim on Friday. Colorado will then conclude the week by hosting the Kraken.
Colorado acquired Mackenzie Blackwood along with Givani Smith and a 2027 fifth-round pick from San Jose in exchange for Alexandar Georgiev, Nikolai Kovalenko, a 2025 fifth-round pick and a 2026 second-round selection.
With Blackwood on side, the Avalanche have now completely changed their goaltending tandem. They started with Georgiev and Justus Annunen, and now have Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood. The 32-year-old Wedgewood started the campaign with Nashville, posting a 1-2-1 record, 3.69 GAA and .878 save percentage through five appearances, but he’s done far better since joining the Avalanche, going 3-2-0 with a 1.92 GAA and a .931 save percentage across five outings. Of course, that’s a small sample size, and Wedgewood typically hasn’t been more than an acceptable backup goaltender, so Blackwood will be needed too.
For his part, Blackwood had a 6-9-3 record, 3.00 GAA and .909 save percentage in 19 appearances with the Sharks before the trade. He has a plus-3.9 goals saved above expected this campaign, per Moneypuck, so he’s been solid when factoring out the Sharks’ defense. Speaking of that defense, San Jose ranks 29th in xGA/60 (3.36) while Colorado is 13th (2.95). That should lead to Blackwood putting up meaningfully better numbers post-trade, and naturally, his winning percentage should improve too now that he has the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and defenseman Cale Makar providing him with goal support.
Having Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen naturally helps too. That duo wasn’t available at the start of the campaign, but they’re in the lineup now, providing some critical secondary scoring. Nichushkin and Lehkonen have each supplied four goals through six games in December. They won’t match MacKinnon and Rantanen in terms of points, but they’re fantastic for Colorado to have on the top six.
The Oilers will be at home next week, hosting the Panthers on Monday, the Bruins on Thursday, the Sharks on Saturday and the Senators on Sunday. Edmonton has been fantastic recently, winning seven of its past eight games to improve to 17-10-2 on the campaign, so the Oilers will be looking to stay hot.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have unsurprisingly been a major factor in Edmonton’s recent success, providing 15 points (five goals) and 14 points (six), respectively, over their past eight games. Vasily Podkolzin (three goals, five points) and Connor Brown (one goal, five points) have been less expected contributors. Podkolzin has benefited from playing in a top-six role, but he still might lose that job once Viktor Arvidsson (undisclosed) is available. It would be a little surprising if Arvidsson, who has been out since Nov. 12, returned next week, but he has resumed skating and might attend a team practice soon.
As for Brown, while there was some hope of him playing alongside his old OHL teammate, McDavid, when he first joined the Oilers, that’s never panned out. The 30-year-old has been playing strictly in a bottom-six capacity and has received almost no power-play time this campaign, so while his four goals and 10 points through 29 appearances aren’t bad under the circumstances, Brown isn’t in a position to increase that scoring pace.
In goal, Stuart Skinner has stabilized after a rough start to the campaign, posting a 4-1-0 record, 1.41 GAA and .947 save percentage across his past five starts. He had a similar track in 2023-24 with a rocky opening to the season followed by mostly strong play beyond that, so perhaps history is repeating.
Florida will open next week with road games against Edmonton and Minnesota on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. The Panthers will then host the Blues on Friday and play in Tampa Bay on Sunday.
Matthew Tkachuk was one of the hottest forwards in the league from Nov. 19-Dec. 7, supplying six goals and 19 points across 10 appearances. However, he’s been held off the scoresheet in each of his last two outings, so while he’s a fantastic forward regardless, his latest hot streak might be over.
To be fair, though, Florida as a squad has managed just one goal (excluding the shootout) over its past two games, so it’s not just Tkachuk who has cooled off. That’s just a mini-slump on the Panthers’ end, but Anton Lundell has been cold for longer. He hasn’t recorded a point across his past five appearances, leaving him at eight goals and 19 points through 29 outings in 2024-25.
Most of Lundell’s success came from an amazing start to the campaign in which he recorded six goals and 14 points in 14 appearances, but he was also averaging 18:49 of ice time. By contrast, he’s dropped to two goals and five points over his past 15 games and his average during that stretch is 15:39. The 23-year-old is capable, but when everyone is healthy, he typically serves on the third line, which limits his fantasy impact. If injuries result in him moving up to the top six, then he could be a great short-term play.
The Kings have a full schedule with four games on the docket next week and just one of their upcoming opponents (the Capitals) occupy a playoff spot. The downside is the Kings will be on the road for the entire week. They’ll play in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, Philadelphia on Thursday, Nashville on Saturday and Washington on Sunday.
When looking at the Kings’ campaign thus far, the player who has most impressed me is Anze Kopitar with his eight goals and 32 points through 29 appearances. We’re currently in a time where several forwards have excelled well past their prime -- Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby being the most obvious examples -- so Kopitar’s longevity has flown under the radar somewhat. The fact that he remains an effective playmaker at the age of 37, is still impressive, though. It wouldn’t be surprising at this point to see him reach the 70-point mark for the 10th time in his career.
Alex Laferriere was nearing his sixth birthday when Kopitar made his NHL debut, but the two are in their second campaign together and the sophomore Laferriere has been coming into his own with 12 goals and 22 points in 29 contests this season. Laferriere has continued to be a steady contributor lately, collecting three goals and seven points across his past seven games.
However, I am a little worried about Laferriere’s 20.0 shooting percentage. That seems rather high and his PDO of 1033 is a touch up there too, which suggests he has been getting a bit of puck luck. I don’t expect a crash, but his goal-scoring pace will likely decline somewhat.
Adrian Kempe’s shooting percentage of 17.9 is on the higher side too. Kempe did have a 16.4 shooting percentage in 2022-23 when he finished with 41 markers, so he’s not too far above his career high, but it’s still a notable step above his career average of 12.7. Like Laferriere, I don’t expect Kempe to collapse, but a small decline might be in his future. Kempe does have 14 goals and 28 points in 29 outings overall.
The Devils are set to play just three games next week, but the competition is favorable, so I decided to highlight them. New Jersey will play in St. Louis on Tuesday and Columbus on Thursday before hosting the Penguins on Saturday.
The Devils have a commanding 19-10-3 record compared to their mediocre 38-39-5 finish to 2023-24 and the difference is almost entirely at their end of the ice. New Jersey is allowing just 2.66 goals per game, which is a huge drop from 3.43 last year. But how much of that is thanks to Jacob Markstrom?
The Devils had an xGA/60 of 3.26 last campaign, which suggests that they were a poor defensive team independent of their goaltending. Kaapo Kahkonen and Jake Allen largely held their own with a plus-1.4 and minus-1.9 goals saved above expected, but when the defense is that bad, merely being okay leads to bad results. The Devils also employed Nico Daws, Akira Schmid and Vitek Vanecek, who did even worse by that metric.
Markstrom was brought in over the summer to stabilize the situation, but much like Kahkonen before him, he’s been acceptable, but not brilliant, posting a plus-1.5 goals saved above expected through 22 appearances. The difference is the Devils have burdened their goaltenders far less in 2024-25, as evidenced by their 2.70 xGA/60.
So, while Markstrom certainly hasn’t been a problem, he hasn’t necessarily been their savior. Either way, fantasy managers have can reap the benefits of Markstrom playing in a favorable situation, which has resulted in him posting a 14-6-2 record, 2.41 GAA and .906 save percentage. He’s also hot going into this week with a 3-0-1 record, 1.48 GAA and .933 save percentage over his past four outings.
Allen has been dealing with an upper-body injury, and the Devils’ schedule is spread out enough to allow Markstrom to start in all three games next week. Isaac Poulter will be with New Jersey for the duration of Allen’s injury, but Poulter is unlikely to get a start. The 23-year-old Poulter has struggled in the AHL this campaign with a 3.32 GAA and an .871 save percentage across nine appearances.
Poulter not getting playing time isn’t surprising, but it was a bit eyebrow-raising to see Tomas Tatar out of the lineup Thursday. Perhaps it shouldn’t be, though. Tatar has averaged just 10:41 of ice time this campaign, which is a far cry from even two seasons ago when he logged 15:07 per game. The Devils are a deep team, and it seems like there’s not much of a role for him. I’d be interested to see what would happen if the Devils traded the 34-year-old. He’s on a one-year, $1.8 million contract, so he’s movable, but New Jersey might ultimately decide that they’d rather have him on board as an insurance policy against injuries. If Tatar does find himself in a middle-six role, he might do enough offensively to have some fantasy relevance. As it is, he’s a non-factor in most leagues.
Seattle will host Ottawa on Tuesday, but the Kraken will spend the remainder of next week on the road, playing in Chicago on Thursday, Vegas on Saturday and Colorado on Sunday.
The Kraken have largely held their own this campaign without being anything special, posting a 15-14-2 record. Joey Daccord has been a major highlight with a 12-6-2 record, 2.42 GAA and .916 save percentage through 20 appearances. We just talked about how Markstrom is benefiting from plenty of support, but Daccord has had to do much more to keep the Kraken afloat. They are tied for 24th in xGA/60 (3.14) and are tied for 16th in goals per game (3.03). For his part, Daccord’s plus-9.2 in goals saved above expected ranks seventh in the league.
Seattle’s offense is mediocre in part because it lacks star power. Through Friday’s action, 48 players have scored at least 12 goals and none of them play for the Kraken. Seattle’s points leader, Jared McCann, (11 goals, 15 assists), is also outside of the top 47 in that category. The Kraken have nine players who have recorded at least five goals, which is respectable -- the league average is 7.7 per team -- but without a star leading the charge, the offense is still just okay.
Maybe Shane Wright will eventually fill that role. Taken with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, Wright had just a goal and an assist through his first 18 appearances in 2024-25. Then he spent three games as a healthy scratch from Nov. 17-23, and that seemed to do him plenty of good. He’s managed six goals and 11 points across 10 outings since that stint in the press box.
The 22-year-old Matty Beniers has promise too. He had 24 goals and 57 points as a rookie in 2022-23 but took a step back in 2023-24 with 15 goals and 37 points. The 2024-25 campaign has been a mixed bag -- he has four goals and 17 points in 31 games -- but he’s done well recently with seven assists across his past seven appearances.
The Canucks will split next week between two games at home (Monday vs. the Avalanche and Saturday vs. the Senators) and two road tilts (Wednesday in Utah and Thursday in Vegas). The Canucks are 15-8-5, which is pretty good, but in a tough Pacific Division, that’s only good for fourth place.
Going into the campaign, it wasn’t clear if Vancouver would be able to hold its own without starting goaltender Thatcher Demko, who was dealing with a knee injury. Fortunately for the Canucks, Kevin Lankinen stepped up and now has a 14-4-3 record, 2.52 GAA and .912 save percentage across 21 outings.
Lankinen became the clear starter during Demko’s absence, but his role is less clear after Demko made his return. The 29-year-old Demko made his season debut Tuesday, though he left something to be desired, stopping 21 of 25 shots en route to a 4-3 overtime loss to St. Louis. That was followed by Lankinen posting a 27-save shutout Thursday.
We shouldn’t judge Demko based on only one start, but it might take him some time to shake off the rust. With Vancouver’s upcoming schedule relatively full, the Canucks will probably split the workload between Lankinen and Demko, which will give the latter more time to get eased in. If Lankinen keeps playing like he has been, and Demko eventually finds his rhythm, then Vancouver would have a great 1A/1B situation on its hands.
The Canucks also got J.T. Miller back, who was absent for 10 games due to personal reasons. He looked good in his return Thursday, providing two assists, including one on the power play. Now that he’s back, Pius Suter is likely to serve in a reduced capacity. During Miller’s 10-game absence, Suter had five goals and nine points while averaging 18:14 of ice time, but Suter dropped to 15:15 on Thursday and wasn’t used at all with the man advantage for the first time since Nov. 14. If you’ve been enjoying Suter’s recent success, now might be the time to explore your alternatives.
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Washington had an incredible 13-4-1 record through Nov. 18 thanks in large part to its league-leading 4.33 goals per game. However, that offensive success was built around Alex Ovechkin, who had 15 goals and 25 points through 18 appearances, so when he suffered a fractured left fibula, it was reasonable to wonder how much his absence would impact the Capitals. Going into Friday’s action, Washington seemed to largely be managing the injury well, posting a 4-2-1 record in its first seven games without Ovechkin.
The Capitals offense has certainly taken a hit, but they’ve still managed an impressive 3.43 goals per game since Ovechkin was sidelined. Tom Wilson (three goals, six points), Dylan Strome (two goals, six points) and Connor McMichael (two goals, five points) have been of particular importance over that seven-game stretch.
However, none of those forwards are actually the Capitals’ scoring leader over the stretch without Ovechkin. That honor belongs to Jakob Chychrun, who has three goals and seven points across his past seven outings. Chychrun, who was acquired from Ottawa over the summer, has been a fantastic addition, collecting eight goals and 15 points through 20 appearances. Keep in mind, though, that his 19.0 shooting percentage is far ahead of his career average of 7.2, so we’ll probably eventually see a drop off.
Still, this stretch has shown that Washington is a team with some decent depth and might prove to be a serious contender come playoff time.
One team that almost certainly won’t be playing come the postseason is Chicago. There’s still plenty of hockey left, of course, but with an 8-16-2 record, the Blackhawks seem set to miss the playoffs for the fifth straight year.
Connor Bedard has been fine with five goals and 19 points in 26 outings, but for a player who has as much promise as him, even more is hoped for. Still, it would help if he had more support. Ryan Donato is the only other Chicago player with at least 15 points (10 goals, five assists). To put that into context, 160 players at reached the 15-point mark through Thursday’s action, so an average team should have five players who have reached that milestone.
Goaltender Petr Mrazek has been alright, but he’s not getting much support on offense or defense, which has left him with a 7-11-1 record, 2.86 GAA and .905 save percentage across 19 outings. Chicago fired head coach Luke Richardson after Chicago suffered its fourth straight loss Wednesday and appointed Anders Sorensen as the interim bench boss. Richardson finished his Blackhawks tenure with a 57-118-15 record, so by that measure his departure isn’t surprising, but given that Chicago has been in the midst of a rebuild, it’s hard to be too critical of him.
Still, perhaps Sorensen, who spent the previous seven campaigns coaching for AHL Rockford, including three years as the head coach going into 2024-25, can help accelerate the rebuild somewhat by guiding the team’s young players. He already has familiarity with many of the club’s prospects thanks to his previous role. A fresh perspective might also be good for Bedard, who is naturally critical to Chicago’s long-term goals.
It will be a while before we know if the change to Sorensen was the right move, and success, at least in the short term, won’t necessarily be measured in wins and losses, but the Blackhawks will be an interesting team to monitor.
The Sabres have hit a rough patch, dropping their last five games to fall to 11-12-3 on the campaign. To be fair, most of those games were against tough opponents (Minnesota, Vancouver, Colorado and Winnipeg handed out four of the five defeats), but Buffalo has more difficult matchups on the horizon. The Sabres will host the Red Wings and the Rangers on Monday and Wednesday, respectively, before taking to the road to face Washington on Saturday and Toronto on Sunday.
Rasmus Dahlin left Tuesday’s 5-4 loss to Colorado because of back spasms and missed Thursday’s 3-2 overtime defeat to the Jets because of the issue. Coach Lindy Ruff described the situation like this via Buffalo’s Twitter account, “It should be short-term, but you never know.” In other words, Dahlin might be fine to play in all four of next week’s games.
He’s a vital part of the Sabres’ blue line, so no one defenseman can fill in for him when he’s not available. That said, Henri Jokiharju should see an increase in even-strength ice time -- Jokiharju logged 20:23 of ice time Thursday, his most since Oct. 16 -- and Owen Power should serve on the first power play unit for however long Dahlin’s out.
Jokiharju doesn’t have much fantasy value regardless, but Power has three goals and 15 points in 26 appearances in 2024-25 despite recording no points with the man advantage, so if he’s given an opportunity to play on the top power-play unit for any extended stretch, that’d be rather interesting.
Regardless of which defensemen dress, Buffalo needs them to help make life easier on the goaltenders. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen could certainly have done more recently -- he posted a record of 0-2-2 with a 3.20 GAA and an .895 save percentage across his past four starts -- but he also faced at least 30 shots in three of those four games, including 41 shots in Tuesday’s tilt.
James Reimer has been used sparingly, posting a 1-1-0 record, 2.05 GAA and .923 save percentage in two starts since being claimed by Buffalo off waivers Nov. 13, but the Sabres’ busy schedule means that he should play in at least one game next week.
The Hurricanes are playing in just three games next week, but I still wanted to feature them because those matchups are favorable. All three of the matches will be in Carolina. The Hurricanes will host San Jose on Tuesday, Ottawa on Friday and Columbus on Sunday.
None of those opponents are good defensively -- Ottawa ranks 25th in goals allowed per game (3.20), which is the best of the three -- so this should be a good stretch for the Blue Jackets’ scorers. Perhaps Martin Necas can build some breathing room in the Art Ross Trophy fight. At the time of writing, he’s in first place with 41 points (14 goals), narrowly edging out Nathan MacKinnon (40 points), Kirill Kaprizov (39), Jack Eichel (38) and Sam Reinhart (37).
Necas was held off the scoresheet in back-to-back games from Nov. 29-30 for the first time this season, but he’s responded by scoring two goals and four points across his past two outings.
One lower profile Hurricanes who’s hot is Eric Robinson. The 29-year-old has never recorded more than 27 points in a single season, but he’s well on his way to shattering that record after recording eight goals and 17 points across 26 appearances. Exercise some caution here: His shooting percentage is an unreasonably high 25.0, and he’s still averaging just 12:15 of ice time with no power-play role, so it’s hard to imagine him keeping up this pace. Still, he’s hot at the moment with three goals and four points across his past five appearances, and when coupled with the Blue Jackets’ upcoming scheduled, there’s reason to hope that the good times aren’t over yet.
We should also see continued production out of defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere. He’s fitting in nicely with Carolina, scoring five goals and 21 points in 26 outings, including a goal and seven points over his past six games. Gostisbehere’s success is largely tethered to the power play, which accounts for 15 of his points.
His presence has corresponded with Brent Burns shifting to the second power-play unit this year, which has led to Burns recording no points with the man advantage so far in 2024-25. Burns has a goal and seven points in 26 outings overall, which puts him on track to finish below the 40-point mark for just the second time in 12 seasons (the last time was the shortened 2020-21 campaign).
The Blue Jackets are 11-11-3, which isn’t great, but they have done better than many projected going into the campaign. Columbus will see if it can maintain that level next week when it hosts Philadelphia, Washington and Anaheim on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, respectively. The Blue Jackets will then travel to Carolina for a game Sunday.
Kirill Marchenko has played a big role in Columbus’ better than expected results. The 24-year-old has 10 goals and 24 points in 25 games this season, putting him well on his way to shattering his mark of 42 points in 2023-24. You’ll usually see him sharing the ice with Sean Monahan, who has fit in nicely with Columbus, providing eight goals and 22 points through 25 appearances.
For the last few weeks, Dmitri Voronkov has typically been the third member of that line. He missed the start of the campaign with an upper-body injury and registered just one point (a goal) across his first six games of 2024-25, but the 24-year-old sophomore has hit his stride, supplying five goals and 10 points over his past 10 outings. He’s still on just 17 percent of Yahoo rosters, so he might be a nice pickup if he’s still available in your league.
On the blue line, Zach Werenski has been a standout performer for the Blue Jackets with eight goals and 27 points through 25 appearances. He’s one of the hottest defensemen in the entire league, recording five goals and 17 points across his past 10 outings.
The Wild have won their past four games to improve to 17-4-4. Minnesota will try to keep the good times rolling next week, which will begin with a road game against Utah on Tuesday. After that match, Minnesota will spend the rest of the week at home, playing against Edmonton, Philadelphia and Vegas on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
Joel Eriksson Ek sustained an injury Tuesday and is week-to-week, and there’s no indication that Mats Zuccarello is close to returning from the lower-body issue that’s kept him out of the lineup since Nov. 14.
If Zuccarello were healthy, he’d almost certainly be playing alongside Kirill Kaprizov and Marco Rossi. His absence led to the lines being shaken up, and Eriksson Ek did skate on the top line with Kaprizov on Tuesday before he got hurt. With Zuccarello and Eriksson Ek both out, Matt Boldy will likely play regularly alongside Kaprizov and Rossi. Boldy has 11 goals and 24 points in 25 appearances, so that’s a strong trio. The forward corps after that, though, looks thin due to the injuries.
Marcus Johansson, Ryan Hartman and Marcus Foligno currently comprise the second line, but none of them have even reached double digits in points. The third unit is Devin Shore, Frederick Gaudreau and Yakov Trenin, which has a combined 15 points this season -- 14 of them from Gaudreau.
Fortunately for the Wild, Filip Gustavsson hasn’t needed much offensive help this year. He’s 12-4-3 with a 2.04 GAA and a .929 save percentage in 19 appearances.
The Islanders have three games on the schedule, but two of them are against the lowly Blackhawks -- New York will host them Thursday and play in Chicago on Sunday -- so the Islanders are in a good position there. New York will also host the Kings on Tuesday.
We just discussed how Minnesota’s offense looks thin due to injuries, and the Islanders are in a similar boat without Anthony Duclair (lower body) and Mathew Barzal (upper body), who have logged just five and 10 games, respective. Due to their absences, the Islanders have just two players with at least 20 points, and even then, just barely -- Anders Lee has 21 while Kyle Palmieri has 20. The result is no Islanders player is within the top 50 of the Art Ross Trophy race.
Andrew Gross of Newsday reported Friday that Duclair and Barzal are skating on their own, which is better than not skating at all, but there are several steps between that and playing, so I wouldn’t count on them returning during the upcoming week.
Lee has been one of the few recent bright spots, providing four goals and eight points across his past six games. He’s on a four-game scoring streak through Thursday’s action. Simon Holmstrom appears to have cooled, though. He had back-to-back multi-goal games from Nov. 29-30, but he hasn’t found the back of the net since. Holmstrom has done fine with seven goals and 15 points in 27 outings, but he’s not worth employing in most fantasy leagues except when he’s hot.
New York is set to host Chicago on Monday, play in Buffalo on Wednesday, have a home game against the Kings on Saturday and conclude the week by playing in St. Louis on Sunday. Let’s not dwell on the schedule, though, the Rangers had an eventful Friday, and I want to dive right into it.
New York traded Jacob Trouba to Anaheim in exchange for a fourth-round pick and Urho Vaakanainen. Importantly, the Rangers didn’t retain any salary, so Trouba’s $8 million cap hit through 2025-26 is now off their books. New York then signed Igor Shesterkin to an eight-year, $92 million contract that will begin in 2025-26 after his current four-year, $22.67 million deal expires.
Let’s start with the defensive changes. Trouba had a fantastic eight goals and 50 points in 82 games with Winnipeg in 2018-19 and was then dealt to the Rangers in the summer of 2019 in exchange for a 2019 first-round selection (Ville Heinola) and Neal Pionk. The Rangers promptly signed Trouba to his current eight-year, $56 million contract.
Unfortunately for New York, the Rangers inked Trouba at the height of his offensive contributions. Over his five campaigns with the Rangers going into 2024-25, Trouba reached the 30-point mark twice, but never hit 40. To be fair, Trouba is a big body, plays a physical game and blocks a ton of shots, so he brings things to the table outside of offense. He also served as the team captain from 2022 until he was traded, highlighting his importance in the locker room. Still, his cap hit was too high for what he brought.
It's telling that the Rangers got very little in return for him, and even with that, some questioned if they won this trade simply by virtue of clearing that cap space. But what did they receive outside of that draft pick? Vaakanainen was taken with the No. 18 overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, but he never developed as hoped. Instead, he should be regarded as a depth defenseman who will likely bounce between the third pairing and the press box. He is also on the injured reserve list due to an upper-body injury, so it might be a bit before he makes his Rangers debut.
Rather than Vaakanainen playing regularly, we might see the Rangers utilize Victor Mancini more with Trouba out. The 22-year-old Mancini has a goal, four points, seven hits and 12 blocks in 10 appearances with New York in 2024-25, and he’s also provided two goals and five points in six AHL outings. Don’t get too excited over Mancini’s offensive numbers, though. He wasn’t much of a producer in the NCAA, recording just four goals and 10 points across 40 outings with the University of Nebraska-Omaha as a Junior in 2023-24.
As for locking up Shesterkin, the cap hit is substantial, but not surprising. He’s proven himself to be a top-tier goaltender, and we’re in a period where the cap seems to be steadily climbing, so there’s logic behind the number. Shesterkin has struggled recently with a 2-7-0 record, 3.93 GAA and .882 save percentage across nine appearances, but he should rebound.
St. Louis has won four of its past five games, improving to 13-12-2 this season. That still puts the Blues outside of a playoff spot, but at least they’re trending in the right direction. The Blues will play in Vancouver on Tuesday, host the Sharks on Thursday, visit Dallas on Saturday and play at home Sunday versus the Rangers.
Dylan Holloway has been a major part of the Blues’ recent success, contributing four goals and eight points across his past five outings. That brings him up to eight goals and 16 points in 27 appearances this year, but he’s been inconsistent, so enjoy the good times while they last, but be prepared for the other shoe to eventually drop if you grab the 23-year-old during his hot streak.
Jordan Binnington is another extremely inconsistent play, but he has been more hit than miss lately, providing a 4-2-1 record, 2.10 GAA and .925 save percentage across his past seven appearances. He’s 8-9-2 with a 2.87 GAA and .900 save percentage in 20 outings overall and will probably average out as a low-to-mid tier starter this season.
Robert Thomas might still have a great campaign, though. He did miss 12 games from Oct. 24-Nov. 17 because of a fractured ankle, but with that injury now well behind him, Thomas seems to be heating up, providing three goals and six points across his past four games. This might just be the beginning of a longer hot streak for Thomas, who set a career high in 2023-24 with 86 points.
Toronto is having a fantastic campaign with a 16-7-2 record, and the Maple Leafs have won seven of their past eight games. They’ll look to maintain that momentum next week, starting with a road contest against New Jersey. The Maple Leafs will then host Anaheim on Thursday, play in Detroit on Saturday and return home to play against the Sabres on Sunday.
Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies returned from injury Nov. 30, adding to Toronto’s success. Matthews has been especially good since returning, supplying three goals and five points across three appearances, bringing him up to eight goals and 16 points through 16 outings. Matthews tends to score goals in bunches, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him continue to tickle the twine over the upcoming week.
Max Domi (lower body) and Max Pacioretty (lower body) have also been skating with the Maple Leafs recently, so they might be nearing a return too. Once they do, we might see Nicholas Robertson fall out of the lineup. Robertson has been the main disappointment in what has otherwise been a great campaign for Toronto. He has just two points (both goals) in 22 outings in 2024-25. Robertson did find the back of the net Nov. 30, but he was held off the scoresheet in two games since, so that marker didn’t seem to help spark him.
In net, Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz will probably each start in two games next week. Stolarz is 8-4-2 with a 2.23 GAA and .924 save percentage in 14 outings, while Woll is 7-2-0 with a 2.11 GAA and a .922 save percentage in nine appearances, so the Maple Leafs can happily treat them as a 1A-1B tandem.
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Although all eyes were on young goaltender Devon Levi, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen proved to be the star of the 2023-24 Sabres, posting a 27-22-4 record, 2.57 GAA and .910 save percentage across 54 contests. However, his strong netminding was undermined by forwards Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch, Dylan Cozens, and Casey Mittelstadt all seeing meaningful declines in offensive production when compared to a season prior. The end result was that Buffalo finished 39-37-6 and missed the playoffs for a 13th consecutive year.
WHAT’S CHANGED? Since the Sabres replaced Lindy Ruff as the head coach, they have cycled through six bench bosses and none of them could lead Buffalo to the postseason, so Buffalo went back to the last thing that worked by rehiring the now 64-year-old Ruff. Outside of the coaching change, Buffalo bought out Skinner and let Victor Olofsson walk as an unrestricted free agent. Meanwhile, they brought in Ryan McLeod in a trade with Edmonton, who might play on the third line alongside Jason Zucker, who was inked to a one-year contract.
WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? The Sabres have endured the longest stretch between playoff berths in NHL history, but that might come to an end this season. Luukkonen was great last year, and at the age of 25, seems well positioned to be a high-end starter for years to come. Combine that with Levi’s high-end potential, and Buffalo’s goaltending is looking good. What Buffalo needs is for its forward corps to recapture some of the magic it had in 2022-23. If that happens, then the Sabres will be a great, well-rounded squad.
WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Of course, Luukkonen has just 100 career NHL games under his belt, and he wasn’t that effective in 2022-23, so there’s no guarantee he won’t regress, and for all Levi’s potential, he’s completely unproven. Buffalo did try to hedge its bet by inking free agent James Reimer, but he’s 35 now and probably won’t be able to save the Sabres if their young goaltenders struggle. On top of that, playing in the Atlantic Division will do Buffalo no favors. Sure, the Sabres have promise, but Ottawa and Detroit improved over the summer while Montreal’s rebuild is making progress. Throw Florida, Boston, Toronto, and Tampa Bay into that mix, and even a Buffalo team that plays capably might still miss the playoffs.
TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: After buying out Skinner, there’s a path for Zach Benson to play a bigger role this campaign, and the 19-year-old might take advantage. He had a serviceable 2023-24 campaign with 11 goals and 30 points across 71 contests while averaging 14:31 of ice time and has the potential to do so much better. Also keep an eye on Jack Quinn, who was limited to 27 games last year, but looked good when he was healthy with nine goals and 19 points. Now with 104 NHL contests under his belt, it’ll be interesting to see what he could do if he stays healthy this year.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 80 | 39 | 45 | 84 | 1.05 |
Thompson’s 2023-2024 season, like that of the whole of the Buffalo Sabres, was a frustrating one. Although he finished the season leading the team with 29 goals, he missed 11 games and dealt with an injury to his wrist that affected his shooting. His power play production dropped from 20 goals in 2022-2023 to nine as Buffalo’s power play fell apart. Showcasing how well Thompson performed despite the injury helped highlight the opportunities that have slipped through the Sabres hands the past two seasons. That he wanted to hurry back into the lineup after the injury to help his team that struggled with consistency makes sense. He’s become a leader in the room and is deeply motivated to help end their playoff drought. But playing through an issue that clearly hindered his greatest weapon, his shot, only proved to add to the frustration the team sorted through. Thompson showed late in the season that when he is healthy, he’s as dangerous a scorer as there can be in the NHL. His creativeness with the puck, his size, his hands and his shot make him extremely difficult to defend. Giving him space lets him get clear to fire away but pressing him can lead to being put on his highlight reel when he toe-drags or nutmegs the defender. Good health and a more direct power play scheme along with Lindy Ruff’s style of play could lead Thompson to a monster season.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 22 | 32 | 54 | 0.66 |
Two seasons ago, Dylan Cozens appeared to have arrived in a big way as an offensive star in Buffalo. His 31 goals in 2022-2023 firmly put him in place behind Tage Thompson as Buffalo’s No. 2 center and set the stage for the Sabres to have a dangerous one-two punch on their top two lines. But 2023-2024 proved to mimic Cozens’s 2021-2022 season a bit too closely. He posted 18 goals with 29 assists last season, a mark that put him fifth on the team in scoring. He struggled with his consistency on offence and battled with his own confidence in his shot as his task load increased throughout the year. Following the trade of Casey Mittelstadt, Cozens become the de facto faceoff man and ultimately one of their most important players on the penalty kill. But Cozens struggled to win draws (45.5 percent on the year) although Buffalo’s penalty killing greatly improved going from 77 percent in 2022-2023 to 82.7 percent last season, tied for 12th best in the NHL. Although the strong defensive work is certainly encouraging, it’s offence Cozens wants to help with even more and the Sabres will need it following the buyout of Jeff Skinner. Should he use his solid performance at World Championships (nine goals, two assists in 10 games) to spark him like it did in 2022-2023, it’ll be a big bounce back season for him.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 78 | 27 | 44 | 71 | 0.91 |
On paper, Alex Tuch had a strong season in 2023-2024. He tied with Rasmus Dahlin for the team lead in scoring with 59 points and his 22 goals were fourth most on the team. Being a team leader is a good thing, normally, except when things go poorly, which they did for Buffalo. Tuch battled all season riding the waves of inconsistency with the rest of his teammates, but when on top of his game, he showed why he’s a premier power forward. His ability around the net to score on rebounds is excellent and he again showed that he’s got a dynamite shot from the slot or on the rush off the wing. A player with his size (6-foot-4, 215 pounds) can be a game-changer and, like many of his Sabres teammates, there were quite a few ups and downs throughout the year. Tuch’s body of work through his career shows how dynamic he can be and since coming to Buffalo from Vegas, we’ve been able to see why he’s such a valued player. Last season marked the third time he scored 20-or-more goals, but the drop from 36 to 22 was substantial. As much as Buffalo wanted to recreate that success, something was off in how Tuch, Thompson and Skinner (and later JJ Peterka) were able to play together. This season, Tuch’s childhood dream of playing for Lindy Ruff will come true and he’ll be a vital player in the Sabres’ success.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 72 | 32 | 26 | 58 | 0.71 |
The big question last offseason was who among JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn would have a big breakout season in 2023-2024. When Quinn sustained an Achilles tendon injury in the summer, all eyes were on Peterka to see if he would take the next step into becoming one of the top scorers on the Sabres and he lived up to the expectations. Peterka set career highs in goals (28) and points (50) and became a first line player alongside Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, supplanting Jeff Skinner in the process. Peterka used his speed, shot, and creativity with the puck to generate scoring opportunities and did the bulk of his damage at even strength with 25 of his 28 goals coming then. At 22-years old, Peterka taking a step forward like this came at the best time for the Sabres and you could postulate that his rise (as well as the arrival of Zach Benson) helped general manager Kevyn Adams decide to buy out Skinner this summer. Peterka’s skill set was made to flourish with such offensively capable teammates and although Buffalo didn’t play with quite the same speed and attack mentality last season, he was still able to take off. With a new coach in place, opportunity is there for the taking to have Peterka make another big step forward and his ability to play better two-way hockey will give him the ability to shine even brighter.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 76 | 25 | 24 | 49 | 0.64 |
Hopes last season for Jack Quinn were dashed months before the season even began when he ruptured an Achilles tendon during offseason workouts. That injury put him out of action until a week before Christmas and when he returned, the Sabres were already sagging back in the standings and offensively. While Quinn did his best upon his return to jumpstart the team, bad luck took over for him again in late-January when he sustained a lower-body injury in an awkward board collision that kept him out another two months. When he wasn’t on the shelf, Quinn had nine goals and 10 assists in 27 games, a scoring rate of 0.7 points per game. That kind of production being absent from the Sabres lineup was a harsh blow to take for the team and highlighted how there really wasn’t anyone who stepped up to replace him. A fully healthy offseason for Quinn should allow him to be ready to explode on the scene this season as he’s penciled in to play on a line with Dylan Cozens once again. His ability to score from odd shooting angles with peculiar timing makes him a perplexing player to defend and goaltend against and allows him to be dangerous from anywhere in the zone, particularly in the slot. If he has a fully healthy season, the breakout that was anticipated a year ago may come to fruition.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 77 | 15 | 23 | 38 | 0.49 |
Zach Benson’s first NHL season was loaded with surprises. When the Sabres selected him 13th overall at the 2023 draft, it was stunning that one of the WHL’s top scorers managed to slip that far down the board and into the hands of a team that already had a cadre of high-end prospects in the first place. It was just as surprising when Benson showed during training camp in September that not only was it a mistake for other teams to pass on him but that at 18-years old, he was good enough to be in the NHL right away. Benson earned a spot on the Sabres and took full advantage of his hard skating and hard-working style of play to become arguably the best forechecker on the team. His aggressive skating and ability to annoy opponents worked to his advantage as he was able to force turnovers further up the ice and become an instantly excellent penalty killer. Although he was a big-time scorer in juniors, his 11 goals and 19 assists couldn’t generate a lot of attention for the Calder Trophy. All that aside, with his defensive smarts and instincts already in place and excellent at the NHL level, it’ll only be a matter of time before he finds his stride offensively as he’s extremely creative with the puck and with his shot. It bears watching how much more he will score this season. A major breakout is on the horizon, it’s only a question of when.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 81 | 11 | 16 | 27 | 0.33 |
The 2023-2024 season proved to be a deeply frustrating one for Peyton Krebs. At 23-years old, he put up four goals and 13 assists and had the lowest offensive output of his career. Krebs played mostly in a fourth-line role between Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo which didn’t exactly help with generating offence, but that was the role he was asked to play and he handled it as best as he could. Krebs was the 17th pick in the 2019 draft, the same year as Dylan Cozens, and the expectations for him as an offensive player have always been high. When he had the opportunity to play up in the Sabres lineup, he struggled and couldn’t click well offensively with wingers like Zach Benson or JJ Peterka. While he possesses an adept ability to make passes and has solid offensive instincts, it hasn’t quite come together for him yet in Buffalo. As he heads into a new season, where he fits into the Buffalo lineup is a bit murky. Ideally, they’d like Krebs to play up in the lineup somewhere, be it at center or the wing, but he’s performed poorly any time he’s been on the wing. With the additions of Ryan McLeod and Sam Lafferty, it would seem the center spot on the third and fourth lines is spoken for unless Krebs forces the issue in camp or winds up playing elsewhere.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 77 | 15 | 14 | 29 | 0.38 |
When the Sabres bought out Jeff Skinner in the offseason, the biggest question GM Kevyn Adams faced was how he was going to replace the point production he provided. When July 1st rolled around, the Sabres made the call for veteran Jason Zucker to address that need. Zucker is a five-time 20-plus goal scorer in the league and is two seasons removed from putting up 27 goals with the Pittsburgh Penguins. At 32-years old, he’s a knowledgeable veteran who knows his role and has always used his speed to his advantage both in the offensive game and as a forechecker. The Sabres will lean on Zucker to play in a role like what they had with Skinner late in the season. He’ll be able to play on any of the top three lines and likely battle with JJ Peterka and Zach Benson for those spots on the left wing. But most importantly, they’ll look for Zucker to find his scoring touch once again. He struggled last season with Arizona and Nashville and put up 14 goals with 18 assists. They would love to see him return to the prowess he had in Pittsburgh or previously with the Minnesota Wild, but should Peterka and Benson outperform him, at the very least the depth Zucker will provide will be greatly appreciated.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 79 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 0.29 |
One of the newest faces in Buffalo will also be one of, if not, the fastest on the team in Ryan McLeod. The Sabres acquired McLeod from the Edmonton Oilers in a swap that sent 2023 ninth overall pick Matthew Savoie back home to Alberta. The trade was panned by many given Savoie’s lofty draft status, but the specific role McLeod plays was greatly needed in Buffalo. As he showed during the Oilers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final, McLeod’s speed forces the issue on opponents trying to get out of their own zone. His forechecking and ability to recover and regroup rapidly helped provide a defensive presence on a team that desperately needed one up front. His role in Buffalo is expected to be the same and with Lindy Ruff’s system in place, the pressure McLeod puts on opposing puck carriers will be vital. Although he’ll be in a third- or fourth-line role, McLeod isn’t a physical player, but with the presence of others like Jordan Greenway, Sam Lafferty and Beck Malenstyn in Buffalo, he won’t have to be. His five-on-five possession numbers shined in Edmonton (career 54.7 percent shot attempts for at five-on-five) and he did that away from all their elite scoring forwards. If he can carry that over to Buffalo, it’ll provide a huge lift to their overall performance.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 82 | 18 | 50 | 68 | 0.83 |
Being the No.1 defenceman on the Buffalo Sabres can be a difficult job, but Rasmus Dahlin has handled all the slings and arrows that were thrown at him to become one of the top blue liners in the NHL. Dahlin tied with Alex Tuch for the team scoring lead with 59 points and he had his first 20-goal season in 2023-2024. Whether it was on the power play or at even-strength, Dahlin’s ability to move the puck from end to end is outstanding. He’s capable of making passes akin to what a first-line center would make and can rip slap shots with the kind of power very few possess. He’s a dynamic offensive presence on the blue line and while his point totals dipped last season compared to the previous season, the uptick in goals showed the evolution his game is making. Dahlin has also developed a physical edge and doesn’t shy away from stirring things up either. He’s become an excellent on-puck defender and his ability to deny passes is impressive. It’s not something that shows up in highlights or box scores, but watching it happen in the flow of play is outstanding. He’s a leader on the ice and in the locker room, but he must improve on the number of penalties taken. The 29 infractions drawn last season were most on the Sabres and given he drew 27, the difference wasn’t too bad. But for the Sabres to have success, he must stay on the ice.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 80 | 7 | 33 | 40 | 0.50 |
It may not always be reflected in his boxcar statistics, but Owen Power is an outstanding defenceman already at age 21. Last season, he had six goals and 27 assists in 76 games and his 33 points were second in defensive scoring behind Rasmus Dahlin. Considering he was second on the Sabres in average time on ice (22:55) behind Dahlin, that makes a lot of sense. After being the No. 1 in the 2021 draft, the lofty expectations that go with it mean he’s supposed to have juicier overall stats. But Power’s effectiveness stands out in both his advanced stats and via the eye test. Watching how well he’s able to exit the defensive zone and control the play from the backend through the neutral zone shows why he was the top pick three years ago and why the Sabres rely on him as much as they do. That said, he’s going to be the No. 2 guy on the blue line behind Dahlin for years to come since both signed long-term contracts a year ago to stay in Buffalo. The key for Power is to play with the kind of swagger and confidence Dahlin plays with now. At 6-foot-5, Power’s stature on the ice is impressive and a player as big as him being as smooth and heady on his feet makes him a unicorn of sorts, for him to take the next step in his career, he’s got to assert himself more in a similar way his teammate did a few years ago.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 77 | 12 | 20 | 32 | 0.42 |
When the Sabres added Bo Byram from the Colorado Avalanche in the trade that sent center Casey Mittelstadt to Denver, it was a classic eye-popping hockey deal and one that helped Buffalo build one of the more impressive collections of young defencemen in the league. Things appeared to stagnate a bit for Byram in Denver last season and the Avalanche’s need for forward help and the Sabres’ fear of what Mittelstadt’s next contract would look like helped make the deal happen. Upon his arrival in Buffalo, it was a bit tricky to sort out his performance. His initial impression showed a lot of what was expected: strong puck-moving capability, fast pace of play and natural offensive instincts. But as the season ground to the finish, he struggled without an established role on the blue line and finished with nine points (three goals, six assists) in 18 games with the Sabres. The hope this season will be that Lindy Ruff’s new system and desire to up the pressure all over the ice will open things up for defencemen to carry and attack when called for and give Byram and his teammates the chance to fly. There’s no doubt he would like the fresh chance to show what he can do because he’s slated to play somewhere within Buffalo’s top four on defence, be it next to Rasmus Dahlin or Owen Power. His tools are too good to not work with the talent the Sabres have.
| Predicted Stats | ||||
| GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
| 76 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 0.24 |
Henri Jokiharju’s stronger dedication to defensive play on the blue line was more than apparent last season. The Sabres have plenty of other more offensive options on the blue line in Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Bo Byram, so it’s the defensive side of the game Jokiharju needed to zero in on. He was a solid complementary player whether he was teamed up with Dahlin or Power on the right side and his plus-14 rating was best on the Sabres. He had 17 points in 74 games with three goals to his credit. One thing that helped him straighten up on defence was how he stuck to his role and what he was asked to do. Often in previous seasons, there would be disconnects between those he was paired with and was more meant to carry the puck up the ice and pinch in the offensive zone to add to the attack. That kind of miscommunication caused defensive breakdowns and golden scoring chances for opponents. Seeing that limited last season while he minded the defensive zone was encouraging. But Jokiharju can be effective with the puck. His shot from the blue line is decent and he’s able to get it through screens if he does let it fly. As he enters his final season before potentially becoming an unrestricted free agent next July, it’ll be worth paying attention to how he fits into what Lindy Ruff wants to do.
| Predicted Stats | ||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | SO | SV% | GAA |
| 52 | 25 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 0.908 | 2.63 |
| Predicted Stats | ||||||
| GP | W | L | OT | SO | SV% | GAA |
| 25 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0.903 | 3.01 |
Compared to teams with Vezina-caliber goaltending, the 2023-24 Buffalo Sabres in-net offerings didn't necessarily put up any performances of note. But the team's ability to finish their season with a positive goal differential - something the Sabres hadn't done since 2011 - felt like both a remarkable breath of fresh air and a sign that things might finally be going right for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. The 24-year-old Luukkonen, who had already temporarily lost his NHL gig twice with reassignments to the minors and benchings behind 41-year-old Craig Anderson, finally took the step forward that the team had been dying for. He finished the 2023 campaign with quality starts in nearly two-thirds of his games played, recording his first NHL shutout (and then adding four more, for good measure) and finally hitting his stride behind a team that seems poised to take a long-overdue step forward.
The real question now will be aimed at prospect Devon Levi. The expectation last year was that Levi, who had been putting up stellar performances at every level, would be able to step in and help guide the team as they took a step forward. Instead, Luukkonen finally put all the pieces together with his own game, improving his movement fluidity and tracking the puck in a way he hadn't with any regularity in years past. And Levi, typically a goaltender who looked best when beckoning pucks to him and holding his positioning, started to become more erratic and harder to stay confident in. The Sabres provided some relief for Levi (and Luukkonen) with a veteran James Reimer coming on board as this season's locker room leader, so Levi is free to work on his conditioning at the AHL level for a bit without feeling the pressure to perform immediately. But Reimer's own numbers have been middling at best for the last few seasons, and his workloads have been limited in volume. So sooner rather than later, expect the Luukkonen-Levi tandem to make another appearance.
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Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
This week, reflecting on players that were much better or much worse than preseason expectations and what we might learn from those seasons. Sam Reinhart, Filip Forsberg, Brock Boeser, Vincent Trocheck, Robert Thomas and much, much more!
#1 Florida Panthers right winger Sam Reinhart was not some unknown commodity entering the 2023-2024 season. He was coming off back-to-back seasons with more than 30 goals and had a career-high 82 points in 2021-2022. He hit a new level this season, however, scoring his 54th goal on Thursday night. He is scoring on a league-leading (minimum 100 shots on goal) 24.0 percent of his shots. That percentage spike certainly helps, and Reinhart has scored a career-high 27 power play goals after scoring 16 in each of the previous two seasons. He has also scored the first five shorthanded goals of his career this season. Ultimately, this has been a career season for the 28-year-old but, given the power play production and high shooting percentage, it is not going to be easy for him to duplicate this season.
#2 It is no secret that Nashville Predators left winger Filip Forsberg is a high-end offensive player, but he had some durability issues. Prior to this season, the last time that he had played even 70 games in a NHL season was in 2016-2017. A healthy Forsberg has played 18:59 per game, his highest average time on ice since 2015-2016 and is generating 4.19 shots on goal per game, more than an additional shot per game over his 2022-2023 season. The result has been career highs of 43 goals and 89 points in 79 games. He has thrived on a line with offseason additions Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist. O’Reilly, coming off a season in which he had 30 points in 53 games, has 66 points (26 G, 40 A) in 79 games, the second highest point total of his career. Nyquist, who has 27 points (11 G, 16 A) in 51 games for Columbus and Minnesota last season, has a career-high 72 points (22 G, 50 A) in 79 games.
#3 A season ago, Vancouver Canucks right winger Brock Boeser scored 18 goals in 74 games, the lowest per-game goal rate of his NHL career. He had also gone through personal turmoil, following the death of his father in May of 2022, and was open to the idea of moving on from Vancouver. The Canucks stuck with Boeser and has been paired primarily with J.T. Miller and a rotating cast of other linemates, but the result has been career highs of 40 goals and 73 points while scoring on a career-high 19.6 percent of his shots.
#4 New York Rangers centre Vincent Trocheck has long been a valuable fantasy performer, in part because he is a centre who hits – this is the third straight season in which he recorded at least 170 hits. Trocheck has played more than 21 minutes per game this season and has recorded a career-high 76 points (25 G, 51 A) in 80 games.
#5 Prior to this season, St. Louis Blues centre Robert Thomas was known as a pass-first playmaker and while that still remained a big part of his game, Thomas started to shoot the puck more and that led him to career highs of 25 goals and 83 points. It’s the first season in which Thomas has recorded more than two shots on goal per game and he has played a career-high 21 minutes per game. This is the second season of the 24-year-old’s career in which he has topped a point per game and, in his prime, should be expected to continue scoring in the years to come.
#6 Ever since he scored 85 points (22 G, 63 A) in 82 games as a rookie in 2016-2017, New York Islanders forward Mathew Barzal has been a dangerous offensive threat, though on a tight-checking Islanders team, that hasn’t always resulted in big point production. This season, Barzal shifted to right wing and the result has been a career-high 23 goals and 80 points in 78 games. He is generating 3.00 shots on goal per game for the first time in his career and has hit the 80-point mark despite scoring on just 9.8 percent of his shots. His on-ice shooting percentage of 8.4 percent is also below his career average, so there is still another level out there for Barzal if he can build on increased shot rates and then hit a season in which the percentages start to break in his direction.
#7 Montreal Canadiens centre Nick Suzuki has improved his production every season that he has been in the NHL, scoring 0.58 points per game as a rookie in 2019-2020, but steadily increasing that rate to hit 0.96 points per game this season, producing 76 points (33 G 43 A) in 79 games. The second half of the season has also offered a great growth opportunity for second-year winger Juraj Slafkovsky, who has joined Suzuki and Cole Caufield on Montreal’s top line. In 30 games since the All-Star break, Slafkovsky has tallied 28 points (12 G, 16 A) with 76 shots on goal.
#8 When Carolina Hurricanes right winger Seth Jarvis went from 40 points (17 G, 23 A) in 68 games as a rookie in 2021-2022 to 39 points (14 G, 25 A) in 82 games last season, it looked like he had stalled somewhat in his second NHL season. Not so fast. Jarvis had gone from scoring on 15.5 percent of his shots as a rookie to just 7.5 percent last season. This season, Jarvis is playing a career-high 18:47 per game and is scoring on a career best 17.3 percent of his shots, leading him to 63 points (30 G, 33 A). The 22-year-old spends a lot of time on Sebastian Aho’s wing and, given his breakthrough season, that should continue for many more years.
#9 Anaheim Ducks left winger Frank Vatrano has always been able to generate shots and he did so even when playing a depth role earlier in his career. This season, Vatrano has logged more than 18 minutes per game for the Ducks, generating 3.37 shots on goal per game, the first time in his career than Vatrano has averaged more than three shots on goal per game. That has led Vatrano to career highs of 33 goals and 56 points.
#10 Dallas Stars centre Wyatt Johnston is just 20-year-old, in his second season after scoring 24 goals and 41 points as a rookie in 2022-2023. He followed that up with a significant step forward in his sophomore season. Johnston’s ice time is up nearly a minute-and-a-half per game, but he has generated more than 2.60 shots on goal per game after he had 1.95 per game as a rookie, and Johnston has vaulted to 32 goals and 65 points in his second NHL season.
#11 After starting his career with productive seasons in Calgary, veteran centre Sean Monahan endured a three-year stretch during which he produced 68 points (24 G, 44 A) in 140 games. He had been bothered by hip injuries and it was looking like a once promising career might be fading away before Monahan even hit 30 years of age. In good health this season, Monahan has become a productive scoring centre once again. He has 56 points (24 G, 32 A) in 80 games, his most points in a season since 2018-2019.
#12 In 2021-2022, Los Angeles Kings right winger Trevor Moore had career highs of 17 goals and 48 points. He was a reliable middle six winger with good speed but was not counted on to produce a ton offensively. Expectations were lowered when he scored 29 points (10 G, 19 A) in 59 games last season. This season, Moore has played nearly 18 minutes per game and is averaging more than three shots on goal per game for the first time in his career. As a result, the 29-year-old has delivered 55 points (30 G, 25 A) in 79 games.
#13 When the Calgary Flames acquired Yegor Sharangovich from the New Jersey Devils in the Tyler Toffoli trade, expectations were modest. After all, Sharangovich has managed 30 points (13 G, 17 A) in 75 games the previous season. The 25-year-old thrived in Calgary, playing more than 17 minutes per game, and putting up 57 points (30 G, 27 A) in 78 games. He has scored on 17.9 percent of his shots, which is a career high and probably unsustainable, making it easy enough to predict regression for Sharangovich next season.
#14 While there were expectations surrounding Jonathan Drouin following his move to Colorado, it was hard to know what would constitute a successful season from the enigmatic winger. Drouin had 87 points (17 G, 70 A) in 163 games over the previous four seasons but getting reunited with former junior teammate Nathan MacKinnon has had an amazing effect on Drouin, as he has hit a career high 56 points (19 G, 37 A) in 76 games.
#15 The first overall pick in the 2020 Draft, New York Rangers winger Alexis Lafreniere had been modestly productive in his first three NHL seasons, hitting a career-high of 39 points (16 G, 23 A) in 2022-2023. This season, the 22-year-old has seen his ice time increase by nearly two minutes per game while his per-game shot rate has jumped by one per game. Playing most of the season with Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck has paid off in a big way for Lafreniere, who has hit career highs with 27 goals and 56 points.
#16 Following a two-season stretch in which he had a .897 save percentage in 98 appearances, St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington came into the 2023-2024 season with few expectations placed upon him. Binnington responded by posting a .911 save percentage in 55 games this season and, with 28 wins, he was a big reason for the Blues to remain in the playoff hunt as long as they did.
#17 At 36-years-old, coming off a down season in Ottawa, Cam Talbot took the starting job with the Los Angeles Kings and ran with it. There have been some ups and downs along the way, but a .916 save percentage with 26 wins in 52 games has been a major boost for the Kings and has given Talbot far more fantasy value than anyone had a right to expect. The key to goaltenders is that there might be a handful of reliable options year after year, but among the rest, it will suddenly be guys like Binnington and Talbot who can unexpectedly alter the fate of your fantasy team.
#18 At the start of the season, the Buffalo Sabres gave rookie Devon Levi a good chance to take the starting job out of training camp and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen had to bide his time, watching and waiting while Levi faltered. When the Sabres turned to Luukkonen, he delivered a .910 save percentage with 27 wins in 53 games. The 25-year-old has looked every bit like a starting goaltender, and now he is the one that will enter next season as the starter.
#19 The Arizona Coyotes entered the season with Karel Vejmelka in the starting goaltender role, but as Vejmelka struggled, Connor Ingram was delivering quality starts and he has taken over the starting job, posting a .909 save percentage with 22 wins in 48 games. The difficulty of getting wins for Arizona has put a limit on Ingram’s fantasy appeal, but he was barely relevant in fantasy terms before this season and is now much more interesting.
#20 Washington Capitals goaltender Charlie Lindgren played in 31 games last season, a new career high. As the Capitals have tried to remain in the playoff race, despite a terrible goal differential, Lindgren has taken the starting job in the Capitals’ crease. Lingren has a .908 save percentage with 22 wins in 47 games.
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When the Buffalo Sabres drafted Finnish goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen with the 54th pick of the 2017 NHL Draft, he was quickly touted as the goaltender of the future. From there, it’s been a long road for the netminder - one that the Sabres have patiently waited through.
Since being drafted, Luukkonen has had stops in the U20 SM-liiga, Liiga, Mestis, OHL, ECHL, and AHL. In 2020-21, he made his NHL debut, getting four games with the big club. That grew to nine games in 2021-22, and then 33 games last season - his first season spending most of the campaign in the show. He didn’t exactly dazzle though, with a .892 save percentage (SV%) for his rookie season.
Along that long path from the NHL Draft to sticking in the NHL this season, Luukkonen’s remained a promising prospect. Still, injuries have plagued him including a double hip surgery that nearly scrapped his entire first year pro. His durability naturally led to questions about whether or not he could still be the future answer in net for the Sabres. Trading for Devon Levi - who arguably has the longest list of accolades for a goaltender before turning pro - added additional questions of Luukkonen. Who’s going to be ‘the guy’? Luukkonen or Levi?
This season, Luukkonen has silenced any doubts and has not only solidified himself as the No. 1 guy in Buffalo, but he’s announced that he might just be on his way to being a top goaltender in the league. Levi, who’s three years younger, will come knocking for that spot sooner rather than later, but the Sabres are in an excellent, enviable spot right now in the position. Their goaltender of the future is here, and they have another waiting in the wings.
It might not seem like it, but Luukkonen’s breakout campaign is coming at the perfect time for the Sabres. This is a young team on the upswing, with a core that could very well become a perennial contender very soon. And now, they have their answer in net.
Looking at the season as a whole, Luukkonen’s numbers have skyrocketed compared to last season. While his 23-18-3 record isn’t exactly what you’d want through 45 games, the rest of his most telling stats have come a long way:
| Season | GP | Overall SV% | ES SV% | Quality Start % (QS%) | Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 33 | .891 | .899 | .406 | -14.1 |
| 2023-24 | 45 | .912 | .917 | .690 | 9.9 |
In almost every stat, he’s in the top half of the league (minimum 15 games played): wins (23 - 11th), SV% (.912 - tied for 15th), goals against average (GAA) (2.52 - 12th), shutouts (five - tied for second), QS% (.690 - fourth), and GSAA (12th).
Where it gets even better is looking at his 2024 performance. The NHL rank is in brackets (again, minimum 15 games played).
| GP | Overall SV% | ES SV% | Quality Start | Goals Saved Above Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 45 | .912 | .917 | .690 | 9.9 |
| Since Jan 1 | 27 | .923 (t-2nd) | .933 (4th) | .741 (1st) | 14.77 (3rd) |
The QS% stands out as the BEST in the league since January 1st. The Overall SV% is just barely behind Connor Hellebuyck’s .924 and is tied with Jordan Binnington. The GSAA is behind only those two goaltenders, and the ES SV% is behind those two and Sergei Bobrovsky. That’s it - that’s the company he’s been keeping since January 1st and keep in mind, that’s with him getting lit up with eight goals on March 21st.
While this is impressive, the numbers only show so much. To truly understand how dominant he’s been, we have to take a look at the tape.
One of the first things you notice about Luukkonen is his size. He’s a massive presence in the net, standing at 6-foot-5, 216 pounds. While smaller goaltenders can still make it with borderline elite athleticism, there’s a definite advantage to being a massive present in net.
That’s 6-foot-3 Matt Martin standing in front of Luukkonen, who can easily see around the screen. Luukkonen can still easily track the play, does well at getting to the top of the paint to cut down the angle and be prepared for a tip, and ultimately makes the save. While he doesn’t swallow up the initial shot, his rebound control is on display here as he quickly pounces on the puck to protect it from the chopping of Martin. He remains calm but reacts quickly and that’s exactly what you want to see from your netminder.
That calm collected presence is a regular trait of the Finn’s play, as you can see here. The Sabres turn the puck over on the exit, and Matty Knies gets into the slot and despite falling, gets the shot off. What stands out here is the technically sound play of Luukkonen. It’s a straightforward save with a clean view, but it does require a quick reaction with the shot coming from that location. And with Knies falling, it’s unpredictable where it will end up. But Luukkonen makes the save and perfectly directs it to the corner, away from the open Maple Leaf in the circle. Luukkonen’s quickly back up on his feet, over to his post, and then scans the ice to ensure he knows where everyone is. It’s a simple save, but it does show the composure, rebound control, and awareness he brings to the ice.
Speaking of composure, this is a great example of that. Luukkonen is so good at staying patient and focused, not overcommitting on a play. There’s a lot that could go wrong here due to the defensive lapse of the Sabres and the Golden Knights ending up with two open attackers just feet away from the blue paint with time. Luukkonen needs to be prepared for a quick pass or a quick shot and does just that.
He utilizes this time to continue to cut down the angle, likely knowing that he’s staring down Jonathan Marchessault who’s approaching 40 goals this season and that he’s probably going to shoot. Marchessault tries to change the angle here on Luukkonen, getting close to the goal line, but the goaltender gives him absolutely nothing. Marchessault runs out of time so ends up just firing it and hoping for the best, which Luukkonen easily stops and jumps on the rebound. With the open man in front, Luukkonen could have panicked and cheated to prepare for the pass or challenged the shooter more and risked the pass, but he remained patient, poised, and gave the shooter nothing.
We’ve covered a lot of how Luukkonen’s patience and technical ability help him in net, but of course, when it comes down to making a big save, you can still count on the young goaltender.
First off, what a pass from Chandler Stephenson with one hand on his stick. But then, what a save from Luukkonen to answer. The reading of the play is perfect here, and he nailed the timing across to make a huge blocker save. You always want your goaltender to make these saves but frankly, you understand if they don’t. But in a tie game, this desperation save comes up clutch.
While there’s been lots of positive development, Luukkonen’s still young and there’s room to improve. While this desperation blocker save is huge, his glove hand can be a weakness when you get him moving.
This is even just a small shift over for him, but Luukkonen’s read is then off. This is fairly common on his glove side in motion or not, and should be an area of focus for him moving forward. This is a shot he should stop every time.
Diving further into this area of weakness: of the 109 goals against this season, 54 have come on his glove side (49.5%) and 43 on his glove side off the ice (39.4%). 23 of the goals (21.1%) have been above his glove and 17 (15.5%) between his glove and his pad. For those doing the math and wondering about the other three goals against, they were over his shoulder. In my opinion, this is his biggest area of improvement moving forward, but it’s not the only one in need.
This isn’t always the case, but he can get caught too deep in his net at times. I would like to see him more aggressive in plays like this and similarly to the last clip, this is a shot he should stop every time. It looks like the puck was tipped off the defender here, so his initial reaction was no longer where the puck was going. But if he was at least at the top of his crease, he would have cut the angle down more and had less space visible. With his size, he could have stopped that puck without moving much at all.
In order to not leave you on a negative note with these clips, here’s one more - another desperation save, this time with a stretched-out paddle earlier in the season:
While the 25-year-old netminder still has some work to do, the improvement this season over last season is quite remarkable. If there was an award for Most Improved Player, Luukkonen would absolutely be a frontrunner. Injuries have likely lengthened the development road for him, but he now appears to be back on track and excelling at that. The goaltender of the future appears to be here and ready to take the Sabres to the next level.
Statistics from Hockey-Reference.com, InStat, and Natural Stat Trick
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Each week, I dive into the numbers to help make decisions when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.
This week, Yegor Sharangovich is heating up again for the Flames, Pavel Zacha is streaking in Boston, Casey DeSmith gets very important in Vancouver, Frederik Andersen returns in fine form, Jamie Benn is thriving with young linemates and much, much more!
#1 It is not the first time this season that Yegor Sharangovich of the Calgary Flames has deserved the interest of fantasy managers. He scored his 28th goal of the season against Vegas on Thursday, his eighth goal in as many games. He is centering a line with journeyman Dryden Hunt on the left side and rookie Matt Coronato on the other, which does not seem like an ideal situation for elevated scoring numbers, but Sharangovich continues to produce, with 11 points (8 G, 3 A) in the past eight games.
#2 Boston Bruins centre Pavel Zacha assisted on Danton Heinen’s goal in Thursday’s 2-1 overtime win at Montreal, extending his point streak to six games. He has nine points (5 G, 4 A) during that stretch and is centering a line with Heinen and David Pastrnak, which is at least a halfway exciting path to production. In deeper leagues, this makes Zacha a viable fantasy option. The Bruins have patched together a productive centre ice group this season, with Zacha, Charlie Coyle, and Morgan Geekie, and Zacha is making the most of his opportunity.
#3 Vancouver Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko is week-to-week with a lower-body injury. That is going to thrust Casey DeSmith into an important role in the meantime and it’s coming at a time when DeSmith has been struggling. In nine appearances since the Christmas break, DeSmith has a .864 save percentage, which is obviously not going to cut it getting regular starts for a contending team. Arturs Silovs has been called up to be DeSmith’s backup but he should not be needed if DeSmith is playing well.
#4 In Carolina, goaltender Frederik Andersen has been stellar in three starts since missing four months of action. Admittedly, Carolina’s team defence is rock solid in front of him but, after shutting out the Florida Panthers on Thursday, Andersen has stopped 63 of 66 shots in those three starts, which is good for a .955 save percentage. If Andersen can just be steady in Carolina’s net, there will likely be less of an urgent need for Pyotr Kochetkov, though the Hurricanes have proved in recent years that they can never have enough healthy bodies between the pipes.
#5 Sometimes a veteran player can use a shot of energy and that appears to be the case with Dallas Stars captain Jamie Benn. The 34-year-old left winger has been playing with second-year centre Wyatt Johnston and rookie right winger Logan Stankoven and it’s working for them. In his past seven games, Benn has 10 points (2 G, 8 A) and 18 shots on goal. He’s not quite vintage Jamie Benn, but well worth considering for fantasy managers.
#6 It can be easy for a young winger to get overlooked when he plays for the Arizona Coyotes, but Dylan Guenther is scoring enough to generate interest. In the month of March, the 20-year-old winger has delivered seven points (3 G, 4 A) with 23 shots on goal in eight games. He is playing with Lawson Crouse and Logan Cooley as well as playing on Arizona’s top power play unit. Guenther has already established a reputation for the release on his shot so it’s a good thing that he is using it, recording at least three shots on goal in seven of his past 10 games.
#7 Moving to Tampa Bay sure appears to have been a positive experience for Anthony Duclair, who was hot in his final days with San Jose and has continued to score after getting traded to the Lightning. Duclair has two goals, one assist, and six shots on goal in his first two games for Tampa Bay, giving him 11 points (6 G, 5 A) in his past seven games overall. He is playing with Steven Stamkos and Anthony Cirelli, which is a quality situation, setting up the well-traveled winger for a strong finish to the season.
#8 Veteran playmaking winger Teuvo Teravainen has had some ups and downs along the way with the Carolina Hurricanes, but when he’s healthy, he has shown that he can score. The Hurricanes have him on the top line with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov and Teravainen has 11 points (4 G, 7 A) and 22 shots on goal in his past nine games. With 21 goals this season, he is two away from matching his career high of 23, set during the 2017-2018 season. Teravainen is averaging under two shots on goal per game, which would be his first time since 2015-2016 under that threshold, but he does have 16 shots on goal in his past five games, so that could be moving in the right direction.
#9 With the Buffalo Sabres suddenly proving to be a competent team in front of goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, the Sabres netminder is providing big value down the stretch. After his 21-save shutout against the Islanders on Thursday, Luukkonen has a .931 save percentage across his past 22 starts. From a fantasy perspective, that is already great, but the fact that he has 13 wins in those starts raises Luukkonen’s ceiling. Incidentally, with Luukkonen crushing it in the NHL, Devon Levi is getting a chance to find his game in the AHL and he is rocking a .926 save percentage in 18 games for Rochester. That bodes well for Buffalo’s future in net.
#10 As the Minnesota Wild try to chase down a playoff spot, and with Filip Gustavsson going through a tough season (posting a .894 save percentage after he had a .931 mark in 2022-2023), 39-year-old Marc-Andre Fleury has been stepping up his game. Fleury only needed to make 16 saves in Thursday’s shutout win against Anaheim and has a .934 save percentage to go with five wins in his past six starts.
#11 It has been a difficult season for Boston Bruins winger Jake DeBrusk, the 27-year-old forward who has an expiring contract which will take him to unrestricted free agency in the summer. He had two points in a 15-game span from late January through early March, but DeBrusk is busting that slump. In six games since then, he has seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 17 shots on goal. He is skating with Brad Marchand and Charlie Coyle and DeBrusk buried the overtime winner against Montreal on Thursday.
#12 His offensive output probably limits his appeal to deeper leagues, but St. Louis Blues veteran left winger Brandon Saad has hit the 20-goal threshold for the seventh time in his career. In his past dozen games, Saad has 10 points (6 G, 4 A) and 22 shots on goal. He plays with Kevin Hayes and Kasperi Kapanen at even strength, which may not necessarily be a recipe for ongoing success, but Saad is forcing fantasy managers to pay attention.
#13 There have not been a lot of positives to take away from this San Jose Sharks season, but it does appear that the Sharks are finding out that right winger Fabian Zetterlund can legitimately fill a role as a scoring winger. In his past eight games, Zetterlund has eight points (2 G, 6 A) and 21 shots on goal. He is skating on San Jose’s top line as well as its No. 1 power play unit. Even on a team as weak as the Sharks, that makes Zetterlund worth considering.
#14 After he scored 40 goals last season, New Jersey Devils winger Timo Meier is a far cry from that pace this season, but he is doing his best to salvage the season with his improving production. In his past 10 games, Meier has 14 points (9 G, 5 A) and 36 shots on goal. That’s more like it.
#15 Vegas Golden Knights winger Jonathan Marchessault has been a productive scoring winger for years, this being the seventh season in which he topped 20 goals and the third time in his career that he scored 30. But Marchessault is on a tear that he has not ventured near in his previous NHL seasons. In the past two months, he has scored 20 goals in the past 23 games, giving him a career-high 37 goals in 66 games. While Jack Eichel has assisted four of those goals since recently returning to the lineup, Nicolas Roy had 10 assists on the most recent 20 Marchessault goals.
#16 Philadelphia Flyers defenceman Cam York is taking on a bigger role, averaging 23:31 of ice time per game in the past nine contests. In those nine games, he has produced seven points (3 G, 4 A) and 18 shots on goal. He is anchoring Philadelphia’s top power play unit, and the 23-year-old appears to be successfully handling the greater responsibility.
#17 Minnesta Wild centre Joel Eriksson Ek has been having an outstanding season, already scoring a career-high 29 goals, but he has suffered a lower-body injury and will be out of the lineup. While he’s out, Ryan Hartman should return to centre the Wild’s top line and Hartman does have 10 points (2 G, 8 A) and 25 shots on goal in his past 11 games. That has moved Hartman to 38 points (17 G, 21 A), the second highest total of his career, though still far behind his 65-point season in 2021-2022.
#18 While the Buffalo Sabres are playing competitive hockey recently, right winger Alex Tuch has mustered just one goal and zero assists in his past seven games. Do not lose the faith, Tuch managers, because even if he has been slumping, Tuch still has 23 shots on goal in those seven games and first line forwards who are generating more than three shots on goal per game are going to find ways to put up points. It is interesting that Tuch’s shot rate this season has been lower – 2.57 per game is his lowest per-game rate since 2019-2020 – back when he was playing less than 15 minutes per game for Vegas, as opposed to the 19-plus minutes per game that he plays now.
#19 As the Detroit Red Wings’ season is spinning out of control, losing seven straight games, scoring winger Alex DeBrincat is mired in a slump, too, with zero goals and one assist in those seven games. Not having Dylan Larkin in the lineup is surely a factor, but this is a bad time for a slump. It’s also worth noting that he had a 10-game goalless drought early in 2024. Goal scorers are streaky but it’s also tough to see DeBrincat’s even-strength scoring in decline. He had 27 even-strength goals with Chicago in 2021-2022 and now has 13 even-strength goals in 66 games for Detroit this season.
#20 The leaders in all-situations individual expected goals in the month of March: Kirill Kaprizov (4.70), Alexander Nylander (4.57), John Tavares (4.43), Wyatt Johnston (4.36), Sam Reinhart (4.31), Andrei Svechnikov (4.22), Connor Bedard (3.99), Nico Hischier (3.75), Jake DeBrusk (3.68), Zach Hyman (3.63), Sidney Crosby (3.60), and Marco Rossi (3.56). Crosby and Rossi have zero goals while Hischier has one, so those players are coming up short relative to their expected goals. Kaprizov has buried eight goals while Wyatt Johnston or Zach Hyman have both scored six.
Perhaps the most interesting name here is Alexander Nylander, a player who has been bouncing around trying to earn a regular spot in the league and, at the very least, he is getting ample opportunity in Columbus and he does have eight points (6 G, 2 A) in 10 games for the Blue Jackets.
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