Vanouver Canucks – McKeen's Hockey

Kats Krunch: 2016-17 Rested Tired: Game 1 Fun

Gus Katsaros — Fri, 25 Nov 2016 15:58:20 +0000

I should have posted this earlier in the season instead of after 20 games (or Q1 as I’ve been calling the four NHL quarters). The weekly breakdown by team (Starting from Monday to Sunday) is below.

With talk of a compressed schedule and a bye week, this is how the NHL plays out over the season, with a slew of teams playing through four-game weeks to close off the final three weeks of the NHL season.

I would normally present a table breaking down the rested/tired splits for NHL teams for 2016-17.

Team	B2B	Tired	Rested	% B2B Tired	DIVISION
ANA	14	11	19	78.57	PACIFIC
BOS	14	11	6	78.57	ATLANTIC
BUF	19	13	6	68.42	ATLANTIC
CGY	11	10	14	90.91	PACIFIC
CAR	16	6	15	37.50	METROPOLITAN
CHI	14	8	12	57.14	CENTRAL
COL	11	5	12	45.45	CENTRAL
CBJ	19	10	7	52.63	METROPOLITAN
DAL	10	7	9	70.00	CENTRAL
DET	16	13	11	81.25	ATLANTIC
EDM	10	8	19	80.00	PACIFIC
FLA	15	10	7	66.67	ATLANTIC
L.A	16	13	12	81.25	PACIFIC
MIN	14	14	10	100.00	CENTRAL
MTL	15	9	9	60.00	ATLANTIC
NSH	13	10	7	76.92	CENTRAL
N.J	18	8	10	44.44	METROPOLITAN
NYI	16	7	13	43.75	METROPOLITAN
NYR	16	13	11	81.25	METROPOLITAN
OTT	13	7	11	53.85	ATLANTIC
PHI	18	13	7	72.22	METROPOLITAN
ARI	13	11	12	84.62	PACIFIC
PIT	15	12	15	80.00	METROPOLITAN
S.J	16	14	8	87.50	PACIFIC
STL	12	8	8	66.67	CENTRAL
T.B	16	12	13	75.00	ATLANTIC
TOR	18	14	8	77.78	ATLANTIC
VAN	16	13	6	81.25	PACIFIC
WSH	16	12	9	75.00	METROPOLITAN
WPG	14	10	6	71.43	CENTRAL

With the emergence of superior visualizations by Micah Blake McCurdy on hockeyviz.com, he offered the viz for these teams here that offers a more visually aesthetic alternative.

I urge you to go check out poke around the site – I used it extensively for the line combinations while writing the Yearbook. If you feel there’s value, please consider throwing some resources into the patreon to keep the site up and running.

Schedling Advantages/Disadvantages

In 2016-17, the Anaheim Ducks turn the tables on the Los Angeles Kings, hosting a bunch of games as a rested team against a tired team that flowed through LA first for Game 1.

For the better part of two seasons, the Kings have held a decidedly expansive advantage over teams traveling through southern California. I’ve gone into this in much more detail in this piece offering the perennial Stanley Cup contenders a scheduling advantage – that they also bungled to miss the playoffs in 2014-15 as outlined in that link.

This season, the Ducks have the advantage by a net four games – with eight teams traveling through Anaheim first before playing the rested Kings in Game 2.

League wide, this is how the advantage/disadvantage looks. Teams with the disadvantage (playing Game 1 against a team that will be playing a rested team in Game 2) appear in the first column, while teams with the advantage appear at the top.

To read the chart, find the team in the first column (the team playing Game 1) and line it up with the team across the top (rested team playing Game 2). The Kings example shows a 12 game lopsided balance here over the Ducks, and two times over the Coyotes – with some singles usually denoted as road contests through the East.

Toronto has a disadvantage of four games where teams play the rested Montreal Canadiens on the second game of a B2B.

Calgary also has a two game advantage over the Oilers in an area that experiences lots of teams traveling through both cities over two nights – sometimes playing through a rested team in Game 2.

The other pocket is in Florida where Tampa Bay holds the slight advantage in ’16-17.

Game One

When I do my rested/tired investigation on the NHL schedule, the focus usually ends up entirely on the team playing in the back-to-back situation. The focus has really been entirely on the second game of the back-to-back, focusing on the effect that it had on the tired team while pinpointing the advantage attained by the rested team.

What about the first game? What has happened in the Game 1 of those back to backs? Is there any impact or a double whammy here that could end up costly where divisional currency can potentially cost a team a playoff spot.

Clearly the second game opponent has an advantage as a rested team, but how much of the disadvantages are really being the game one opponent?

Most back-to-back situations involve teams traveling through host cities, increasing the likelihood of lining up against two teams within the same division, offering a distinct advantage to that second team above and beyond the rested advantage, the game one team clearly lacks. Via winning percentage, we see a distinct advantage in being the second game.

To isolate the effect of being a game one team, I went back from the first lockout in 2005-06 to 2015-16 (while I hate to take away data, I didn't want to use the lockout shortened season because all teams played within their conference until the Stanley Cup finals) and compiled all the games that involve the rested and tired team in both games one and two.

Turns out that teams playing game one generally had a 50-50 chance of outright winning – that’s buoyed by a percentage of extra time points), while a rested team clearly has the advantage posting an overall winning percentage over .600. While that doesn't seem to be much of a difference, with all the focus on divisional play in the margins of error for making the playoffs, the advantage of a swing through the Anaheim-LA combination, that exists in Florida, Alberta, somewhat in Ontario, and through the New York teams, can have potential playoff ramifications.

Overall the effect is still about being the team playing a rested team and again to sequence of back-to-back.

The Division columns indicate that both teams in Games 1 & 2 belong to the same division – example, Anaheim and Los Angeles or Florida/Tampa Bay.

TOTAL	OVERALL		DIVISION		NON-DIV
SEASON	Dis Game 1 Win%	Adv Game 2 Win%	Dis Game 1 Win%	Adv Game 2 Win%	Dis Game 1 Win%	Adv Game 2 Win%
200506	0.487	0.652	0.497	0.624	0.473	0.688
200607	0.548	0.599	0.563	0.604	0.531	0.594
200708	0.489	0.619	0.497	0.623	0.477	0.614
200809	0.493	0.628	0.493	0.621	0.493	0.635
200910	0.481	0.576	0.500	0.569	0.462	0.583
201011	0.512	0.593	0.517	0.575	0.507	0.612
201112	0.500	0.645	0.522	0.701	0.479	0.591
201314	0.523	0.594	0.550	0.617	0.492	0.568
201415	0.489	0.642	0.496	0.642	0.481	0.642
201516	0.497	0.607	0.510	0.613	0.482	0.601
W% Total	0.502	0.616	0.514	0.619	0.488	0.612

It’s a little odd to see the drop off in games where the two teams involved in the back-to-back are not within the same division. The difference between a .514 and .488 win percentage is drastic over the sample used here with almost 10 years’ worth of games to analyze.

Game 2 teams are fairly consistent generating a minimum .612 winning percentage beating up a tired team.

I went through the shot differentials for these back to back sets in greater detail here. I’ve recreated the table here for teams playing back to back for reference.

Game Type	Games	Wins	Win%
Total GP	17220	8607	0.558
Non B2B GP	14168	7222	0.569
B2B both teams	794	397	0.552
Rested B2B	2258	1270	0.596
Tired B2B	2258	988	0.495

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Kats Krunch: 2015-16 Rested Tired: Californication 2.0

Gus Katsaros — Fri, 29 Jan 2016 16:20:14 +0000

I normally do schedules post closer to the beginning of the season. Better late than never is all right too, and I guess the All-Star break is a good place to start, with no scheduled games for the weekend and in a static position in which to judge the standings.

This is what the weekly schedule looks like for the NHL the rest of the way after the break. The bottom of the image contains the amount of games for each team listed across the top in the final three and then the final two weeks of the season.

For 2015-16 the Columbus Blue Jackets play most back to backs (18), with 13 games as a tired team. Detroit the NY Rangers Pittsburgh follow closely with 17.

Quick definition of rested/tired.

Rested – team that has not played the previous night facing a team in the second night of a back-to-back set on consecutive nights.

Tired – team playing its second game on consecutive nights versus a team that is rested and not played the previous night.

Presented in the image below is the NHL teams back-to-backs, rested and tired situation and in a new column the percentage of overall back-to-back games as a tired team.

The rest of the NHL breaks it down below. Rested teams are listed in the first column and opponents across their row. Tired teams are across the top and their opponents are listed down the column.

Fortunately with a good percentage of the season already played, we could attach win loss records and winning percentage. Some interesting records just jump out. Winnipeg, for instance, has a 6-1 record as a rested team, burning through their seven season games by the All-Star break. Sporting a 3-5-1 record as a tired team (.389 winning percentage) balances that out.

Ottawa also burned through their rested games this season. They have six wins in nine games.

Last season the Los Angeles Kings missed the playoffs by two points. A narrow enough margin blowing a valuable opportunity with a soft schedule at the end of the season including four of their last 10 games as a rested club playing a tired team. This was the playoff race with about 10 games left last season where they went 2-2 in the final four rested games.

For the Playoff race, here's Rested/Tired games remaining for the rest of '14-15 with focus on West Conf teams race pic.twitter.com/Woh8K0fM2k

— Gus Katsaros (@KatsHockey) March 24, 2015

LA is 5-4-1 so far in 2015-16 as a rested team, and a superb 5-0-1 as a tired team leading the NHL with a .917 win percentage.

The Kings take advantage of their location and road team travel schedules emulating 2014-15. A team rolls through Anaheim a dozen time before facing a rested Los Angeles the very next night. That's an NHL high. The Kings were the main focus of mine scheduling post last season aptly named Californication. There's a drill down within that post that takes this into a further look at the types of advantages and disadvantages of scheduling.

With a firm grip of first place in the Pacific Division, it’s not likely these games will have as much of an impact on making the playoffs for the Kings.

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2014-15 Rested Tired: Californication

Gus Katsaros — Fri, 24 Oct 2014 21:24:45 +0000

As if the reigning Stanley Cup Champions weren’t already riding a heavy dose of skill as a competitive advantage, the NHL schedule makers decided to elevate their chances another level to their defending season, reasserting a past advantage, afforded to the Calgary Flames last season.

Last year, it was Alberta’s Dirty Little Secret; in 2014-15 it’s Californication for teams traveling through Southern California.

The LA Kings play 17 games as a rested team in 2014-15, featuring 13 games in the friendly confines of the StaplesCenter. In 11 of those games, the tired team had played Anaheim the day before. The direction is reversed in six contests traveling to Anaheim after a date with the Kings – with an additional four where teams landed in San Jose before traveling south. The breakdown is in the matrix here:

The team listed across the top has an advantage over the team in the first column. For instance, in addition to the Los Angeles to Anaheim example, Calgary plays five rested games versus a team that visited the Oilers the previous night.

In 2013-14, the Calgary Flames led the NHL with 20 rested games versus a team playing the back end of consecutive nights. The dirty little secret involved 13 games against the Edmonton Oilers in the first game, before making their way 304 kilometers south to Calgary.

Calgary’s 13 games bested the previous mark of 12 games, set by the LA Kings in 2008-09, with teams playing against Anaheim in the first game of back-to-backs.

Schedules tend to even out and Anaheim enjoyed this advantage over the Kings in 2006-07 and 2011-12, with 9 games featuring a team playing the Kings first before traveling the 45 kilometers to Anaheim.

2014-15 Rested and Tired

The extensive history tracked back to its origins can be found following this link into the rabbit hole for the extensive writing on this subject. I’ve usually set out basic definitions, so here’s the housekeeping related to rested and tired teams. Along with the graphic breakdown for each team and their opponents below, much more information is housed in this Google Doc, including an in-depth breakdown of teams individually and the season as a whole.

First comes the definitions of rested and tired teams.

Rested – team that has not played the previous night facing a team in the second night of a back-to-back set on consecutive nights.

Vancouver leads the NHL with 19 rested games, featuring 16 at home while according to the matrix above, teams have traveled through Edmonton (7) and Calgary (6) in 13 prior gam

Tired – a team playing its second game on consecutive nights versus a team that is rested and not played the previous night.

It’s no secret that the Blue Jackets have the most back-to back sets in 2014-15 with 19. This naturally means a high number of games as a tired team, 16, in fact, or 84% of their sets featuring Columbus as the tired team – this is expanded below.

The analytics paint a distinct picture here too. Historically, teams playing rested/tired perform at naturally predictable rates based on score effects measured by Corsi. The study is housed here, so I won’t get into the minutiae.

Rested Teams sport a winning percentage of about .596, while tired teams win a touch lower than half at 0.495, winning almost half the games played. In a season with only a few games, this isn't a major factor. But teams like the Blue Jackets (as illustrated below) can have a significant disadvantage with the new divisional playoff format.

Rested teams Corsi reflect the score effects with an average CF% of 51.8% slightly lower than 52% of Corsi close.

As a tired team the rates are even across the board (48.2%).

A team’s shooting percentage in game situation ‘close’ seemed to be a factor determining game outcomes. Tired teams enhance their chances at winning if they receive exceptional shooting accuracy early, and then weather the proverbial storm via score effects.

Rested teams don’t have to shoot the lights out to influence winning, shooting slightly less than 13% (12.88%) with an effect of a slower rate regarding score effects as a tired team doesn’t dominate the contest as much as a team that hadn’t played the previous night.

The sample size for these calculations consisted of over 2000 games played since the 2005-06 season.

Last Season

The Flames scorched a path in 2013-14 with a league leading 20 games as a rested team. Given the advantage (and that historically rested teams won almost 60% of their games), the Flames record of 8-10-2 is mildly disappointing until factoring in the rebuilding mode. Half of the wins needed extra time with three in a shootout.

The New Jersey Devils led the NHL with 16 games as a Tired team, sporting a record of 5-5-6, with four extra time losses via shootout, a sore point in a winless season for the Devils in the NHL’s latest gimmickry.

Two issues jump out from previous analysis and a new element I was tracking this season.

With teams generally losing 49.5% of their tired games, the league discrepancy has potential to steal teams ability to secure a playoff spot. If Columbus is playing 16 games as a tired team, and only winning half of the available 32 point, those 16 points left on the table could easily be the deciding factor between them and a playoff spot. The contrast is evident with divisional rival Detroit Red Wings leaving 12 available points as a tired team in six games, winning at a .495 clip offers a 10-point buffer to earning a playoff spot.

The New York Islanders offer the best ratio of back-to-back games to that as a tired team, skating in a league low 37.5% of their back-to-backs versus a rested team. Of the 16 sets, only six times do they face a rested opponent, while the league average is 73.45%.

Two teams, Calgary and Colorado play all their back-to-backs versus a rested opponent, as indicated in the table.

The East Coast bias continues strong, represented heavily within the Metropolitan Division where the average for the percentage of tired games in back-to-backs is a league low 58.24% and climbing to 72.77% within the Atlantic. Both Western Conference divisions average over 80%.

A playoff spot is likely on the line with a scheduling quirk playing a fairly significant role in each team's fate.

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