Victor Rask – McKeen's Hockey

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY HOCKEY POINTS: Sleepers, Rookies, and Potential Breakthrough Players – Middle to Late Rounds

Scott Cullen — Fri, 01 Oct 2021 14:02:42 +0000

Each week, I will dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

In this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points, a look at players to consider in the middle and later rounds of drafts this season. Some sleeper candidates, rookies, potential breakthrough players, but all in the name of finding value on draft day. Evgeni Dadonov, Michael Bunting, Jonathan Dahlen, Viktor Arvidsson, and Chandler Stephenson are some value plays with potential.

#1 Before managing 13 goals in 55 games for Ottawa last season, Vegas Golden Knights winger Evgeni Dadonov had three straight seasons with at least 25 goals. His shot rate dropped from 8.2 shots/60 to 6.0 shots/60 during 5-on-5 play but a drop in power-play production sunk his season. In 2019-2020, Dadonov had 17 power play points, including 11 goals, for Florida. Last season, in more than 159 power play minutes, Dadonov had zero goals and one assist. Vegas might offer him better opportunities, and they need his offense with Alex Tuch out of the lineup while he recovers from shoulder surgery.

#2 Washington Capitals center Lars Eller has yet to score 40 points in an NHL season, topping out at 39 points in 2019-2020, but that was in 69 games of a shortened season. Last season, Eller had 23 points in 44 games, his second straight season with better than 0.50 points per game, and the reason this has some importance is that the Washington Capitals could be missing Nicklas Backstrom for a while at the start of the season and if that is the case, Eller could find a more significant role, at least early in the season.

#3 There were 10 players to score at least half a goal per game last season. All 10 might not have survived a full 82-game schedule but it was the lowest number of players with at least half a goal per game (minimum 20 games) since 2016-2017, when there were only three. It would appear, then, that finding goals at the higher end of the scale has generally been easier over the past four seasons.

OTTAWA, ON - SEPTEMBER 29: Toronto Maple Leafs left wing Michael Bunting (58) closes on the play during first period National Hockey League preseason action between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators on September 29, 2021, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire)

#4 A player who just missed scoring 0.50 goals per game last season was new Toronto Maple Leafs winger Michael Bunting, who had 10 goals in 21 games for Arizona. It would be unreasonable to expect Bunting to score on 26.3% of his shots again, especially over a full season, but his brief success with Arizona was very much predicated on going to the dirty areas to score on tips and rebounds and that could conceivably secure him a valuable spot in Toronto’s top six.

#5 After two promising seasons to start his career, St. Louis Blues center and right winger Robert Thomas saw his production drop dramatically last season. Some of it was due to injury as he only played in 33 games but, in the games that he did play, Thomas saw his numbers decrease across the board. Most troubling was that his 5-on-5 rate of shots per 60 minutes dropped from 5.3 in 2019-2020 to 2.8 last season. Thomas is a decent pick for a bounce-back season but part of that will require him to generate more shots.

#6 It appears that the San Jose Sharks are going to give winger Jonathan Dahlen a prime opportunity to get his NHL career going. The 23-year-old was drafted by Ottawa and traded to Vancouver. After scoring 35 points in 59 AHL games, he returned to Sweden to play for Timra in the Allsvenskan league and Dahlen put up 61 goals and 148 points in 96 games over the past two seasons. It is a big jump from the Allsvenskan to the NHL but it also looks like the Sharks are prepared to give Dahlen a shot in a scoring role right away so he could be in a position to have some success.

#7 With the Pittsburgh Penguins missing both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin at the start of the season, there could be an opening for 6-foot-6 forward Radim Zohorna to have in a significant role with the Penguins. Zohorna had four points (2 G, 2 A) in eight games for Pittsburgh last season, but he also had 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in 12 AHL games and 22 points (12 G, 10 A) in 21 Czech league games. As a late-round flier, might be worth a look.

#8 The 2020 first overall pick by the New York Rangers, Alexis Lafreniere had an underwhelming rookie season with 21 points (12 G, 9 A) in 56 games, but he got off to a terrible start with seven points in his first 27 games, improving to 14 points in the next 29 games. A small sign of progress? Maybe, but he will need to generate more shots. Last season, Lafreniere had 2.53 shots/60, which ranked 213^th out of 277 forwards to play at least 500 5-on-5 minutes, falling between Oskar Lindblom and Josh Archibald.

#9 The Nashville Predators are hoping to inject some life into former Vegas prospect Cody Glass, the sixth pick in the 2017 Draft. Glass has 22 points in 66 NHL games early in his career, but five of his nine goals have come on the power play. His even-strength production has been abysmal. Across the past two seasons, there are 415 forwards that have played at least 500 5-on-5 minutes, Glass ranks 406^th in points/60 (0.80) and 362^nd in shots/60 (5.19). There may be some potential lurking, but the early returns have been rough.

#10 The Minnesota Wild continue to move pieces around as they try to overcome a lack of production down the middle of the ice. One big hope would be for Marco Rossi, the 9^th pick in the 2020 Draft, to step into a prominent role but that could be asking a lot since Rossi missed all of last season suffering after-effects of Covid-19. But really, they need someone to bump out Victor Rask who had 0.26 individual expected goals per 60 last season. That ranked 276^th out of 277 forwards to play at least 500 5-on-5 minutes.

RALEIGH, NC - MARCH 20: Columbus Blue Jackets right wing Patrik Laine (29) with the puck during the 1st period of the Carolina Hurricanes vs Columbus Blue Jackets on March 20th, 2021 at PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC (Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Icon Sportswire)

#11 Who ranked 277^th? None other than Columbus’ Patrik Laine, just in case you weren’t sure if last season was enough of a disaster for a player who was an elite goal-scorer not so long ago but it is hard to become an elite goal scorer without generating legitimate scoring chances.

#12 In the past five seasons, the best goal per game rates for an individual season naturally have a lot of familiar names. Tops on the list is Auston Matthews, who scored 41 goals in 52 games last season (0.79 gpg), followed by the Rangers Mika Zibanejad in 2019-2020 (41 goals in 57 games) and then it became a gathering of premier scorers: Alex Ovechkin, Alex DeBrincat, David Pastrnak, Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, 13 Sidney Crosby and then, with the 13^th-best goals per game rate for a season in the past five years, it is Viktor Arvidsson. In 2018-2019, Arvidsson scored 34 goals in 58 games for Nashville. That might seem like a long way away after he scored 10 goals in 50 games last season but that high-end scoring potential is part of the reason that Los Angeles acquired him.

#13 Florida’s Sam Reinhart tied a career high with 25 goals in 54 games for Buffalo last season while scoring on a career-high 19.2% of his shots. While that percentage may regress, an opportunity to play alongside Aleksander Barkov with the Panthers may help him get even more opportunities. With Barkov on the ice last season, the Panthers had 65.2 shot attempts per 60 minutes. In Buffalo, the Sabres had 50.6 shot attempts per 60 during 5-on-5 play with Reinhart on the ice.

#14 In the past five seasons, Florida right winger Patric Hornqvist has scored 42 power play goals, tied for 21^st in the league with Toronto’s John Tavares. Hornqvist also had more than 100 hits for five straight seasons before finishing with 80 hits in 44 games last season. Power play production and consistent hit totals make Hornqvist a value play in the later rounds.

#15 On the quest for defensive depth, consider Florida blueliner Gustav Forsling, who has 6.99 shots per 60 minutes across the past two seasons, ranking fifth among all defensemen that played at least 500 5-on-5 minutes. His 1.04 points/60 in that time ranks 43^rd among 237 defensemen to meet that ice time qualification.

#16 Among defensemen to play at least 100 5-on-4 minutes last season, Shayne Gostisbehere ranked first in shot attempts per 60 minutes (31.67) and shots on goal per 60 minutes (16.12). Now in Arizona, can he be a factor on the Coyotes power play? It would presumably have to be on the second unit since Jakob Chychrun is set on PP1.

#17 Since scoring 40 goals for the Sabres in 2018-2019, and landing a monster contract as a result, Jeff Skinner has scored a total of 21 goals in 112 games. Only one of those goals has been on the power play, so maybe that is area to address in order to get him back on track. During 5-on-5 play, Skinner still creates chances. In the past two years, he has 10.1 shots per 60 minutes which ranks 15^th among forwards that have skated in at least 1000 5-on-5 minutes. His three most common linemate in the past two seasons has been Curtis Lazar so it is possible that the Sabres could try to give Skinner a better chance to succeed by actually trying to achieve that objective.

#18 Coming off a season in which he scored on a career-low 7.6% of his shots, on the way to 16 points (6 G, 10 A) in 51 games, Boston’s Charlie Coyle does have an opportunity to see a big offensive increase this season if he can win the Bruins’ second-line center job in the wake of David Krejci’s departure. Coyle is facing competition from Jack Studnicka and possibly Erik Haula but skating between Taylor Hall and Craig Smith could be a plum spot for whomever wins the job. When Hall and Smith were on the ice together last season, the Bruins earned 66.9% of the shot attempts and outscored opponents 13-1 during 5-on 5-on-5 play.

#19 Hockey life has changed rather dramatically for Vegas Golden Knights center Chandler Stephenson, who was a checker early in his career with Washington before he joined Vegas and landed on the top line, skating with Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone. When Stephenson is on the ice with Stone, during the past two seasons, Vegas has outscored opponents 65-29 (69.2 GF%) and in the past two years, Stephenson has scored 1.84 points per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, the same rate as Claude Giroux and more than Nicklas Backstrom. The upshot here is that the Golden Knights are probably not in a major rush to find someone else for that role because it is already working really well with Stephenson there.

#20 A name to keep in mind among defensemen, and one who does not get a power play boost, is Tampa Bay’s Erik Cernak. In the past two seasons, there have been 174 defensemen to have played at least 1000 5-on-5 minutes and Cernak ranks 10^th with 6.57 shots per 60 minutes. Mix that in with more than 2.7 hits per game during his career and Cernak does offer some deep league value.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick

CULLEN: 20 FANTASY POINTS – A Look Back at the 2020-21 Season

Scott Cullen — Thu, 20 May 2021 19:33:41 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, a look back at the 2021 season and some of the underlying and sometimes just odd numbers for players during the 56-game season.

#1 Boston Bruins left winger Brad Marchand finished third in scoring with 69 points. He was a long way from first but, following offseason sports hernia surgery, Marchand’s longest streak without registering a point was two games, which happened twice. Since 2016-2017, Marchand ranks third in the NHL with 426 points, behind the two players that he was behind in this year’s scoring race, the Edmonton Oilers duo of Connor McDavid (526) and Leon Draisaitl (469). (Yes, that means that McDavid has 100 points more than any non-teammate over the past five seasons.)

#2 Although he had to take a leave of absence from the New York Rangers during the season, left winger Artemi Panarin ended up with 58 points in 42 games this season. Over the past two seasons, his first two with the Blueshirts, Panarin is averaging 1.38 points per game, which ranks third behind Connor McDavid (1.68) and Leon Draisaitl (1.53).

DENVER, CO - FEBRUARY 22: Vegas Golden Knights right wing Mark Stone (61) skates during a game between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado on February 22, 2021. The Colorado Avalanche wore retro-themed uniforms with logos of the Quebec Nordiques. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

#3 Vegas Golden Knights captain Mark Stone tallied 61 points, the sixth time in the past seven seasons that he has scored at least 60 points, and it was not a standard path to get there. In a shortened season, Stone needed a career-high 1.11 points per game to cross that threshold and he did it with a career-low 1.78 shots on goal per game. He scored on a career-high 21.4% of his shots and had a career-high on-ice shooting percentage of 12.1%.

#4 One of the biggest bounce-back seasons was authored by Chicago Blackhawks winger Alex DeBrincat, who tallied 32 goals and 56 points in 52 games after scoring 18 goals and 45 points in 70 games in 2019-2020. Hockey can be fickle, though. Last season, DeBrincat had 2.96 shots on goal per game and it improved this season to 2.98 shots on goal per game. Okay, that minor nudge does not explain the increase in goal scoring. Last season, DeBrincat scored on 8.7% of his shots. This season, he scored on 20.6%. He also played almost three minutes more per game compared to last season but it’s worth noting that DeBrincat had a higher shot and expected goal rate in all situations in the 2019-2020 season than he did in 2021 but sometimes the puck won’t go in the net. Other times, a sniper like DeBrincat can’t miss.

#5 Minnesota Wild rookie sensations Kirill Kaprizov had an outstanding rookie season, but it was a tale of two rookie seasons in one. Coming out of a KHL season in which he tallied 62 points in 57 games, a standard NHL equivalency would have pegged Kaprizov for approximately 45 points in a 56-game season. He exceeded those numbers, finishing with 51 points (27 G, 24 A) in 55 games. The rookie was putting up points immediately but was not generating shots. In his first 17 NHL games, Kaprizov contributed 16 points and 28 shots on goal (1.65 shots per game). In the next 38 games, he scored 35 points, including 22 goals, and generated 129 shots on goal (3.39 per game), more than doubling his shot rate.

#6 32-year-old St. Louis Blues winger David Perron had the first point-per-game season of career, scoring 58 points in 56 games. He averaged 18:33 of ice time per game, the second highest per-game average of his career.

#7 Looking to re-establish his value after a down season in Toronto, Edmonton’s Tyson Barrie decided that signing in Edmonton would work for him, and he was right. Barrie paced all defensemen with 48 points. Keep in mind that Barrie is going to be an unrestricted free agent in the offseason and that Connor McDavid recorded a point on 34 of the 48 goals (70.8%) which Barrie had a point. In Barrie’s 2017-2018 season, when he tallied a career-high 57 points for Colorado, Nathan MacKinnon had a point on 30 of those 57 goals (52.6%).

#8 36-year-old Dallas Stars center Joe Pavelski had a bounce-back campaign after a tough start in Dallas in 2019-2020. He finished with 51 points (25 G, 26 A), scoring 13 of his 25 goals on the power play. Since 2013-2014, Pavelski has 25 goals scored via deflections. Winnipeg Jets captain Blake Wheeler has the second most goals on deflections in that time with 16.

#9 There were five defensemen that had at least 15 points this season that recorded more than half of their points on the power play. Florida’s Keith Yandle (66.7%), Arizona’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson (58.3%), Montreal’s Shea Weber (57.9%), Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman (53.3%), and Los Angeles’ Drew Doughty (52.9%).

#10 On the other end of the spectrum, there were 60 defensemen to put up at least 20 points this season. Those with the lowest percentage of power play points were Toronto’s Justin Holl (0.0%), Toronto’s Jake Muzzin (7.4%), Florida’s MacKenzie Weegar (8.3%), and Nashville’s Mattias Ekholm along with Minnesota’s Jonas Brodin (both 8.7%).

#11 Minnesota Wild left winger Marcus Foligno had a career season, scoring a career-high 26 points in 39 games. Foligno had zero power play points. The other top even-strength scorers without any power play points: Winnipeg’s Mason Appleton (24), Montreal’s Phillip Danault (23), as well as the Rangers’ Filip Chytil (22) and Alexis Lafreniere (21). Minnesota’s Jordan Greenway had 31 even-strength points with one power-play point and Vancouver rookie Nils Hoglander had 26 even-strength points with one power-play point.

#12 There were 389 forwards that played at least 300 5-on-5 minutes this season. The leaders in individual expected goals per 60 minutes were Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher (1.30), Toronto’s Auston Matthews (1.14), Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk (1.02), Minnesota’s Joel Eriksson Ek (1.02), the Islanders’ Anders Lee (1.01), and Carolina’s Nino Niederreiter (1.01). Familiar names for this category but it also shows the difference between an elite finisher like Matthews and others who generate the shots and chances but don’t come close to Matthews’ goal totals.

#13 The forwards with the lowest individual expected goals per 60 minutes were Columbus’ Patrik Laine (0.26), Minnesota’s Victor Rask (0.26), Toronto’s Joe Thornton (0.27), St. Louis’ Tyler Bozak (0.30), and Winnipeg’s Nate Thompson (0.30). Seeing Laine at the very bottom of the list shows just what a disaster this season was for him. A fresh start, with a new coach, can’t come soon enough.

#14 Surprisingly, the most productive player from that early-season trade was Jack Roslovic, who scored a career-high 34 points (12 G, 22 A) in 48 games for Columbus. His ice time went up a couple of minutes per game compared to the 2019-2020 season in Winnipeg. His shot rate (1.77 per game) was a bit of a concern, too, but that appears to be virtually a team-wide issue for the Blue Jackets.

#15 Arizona Coyotes right winger Phil Kessel finished with a flourish and ended up with 20 goals and 43 points; it was the 12^th time in the past 13 seasons that Kessel scored at least 20 goals. He scored on a career-high 17.4% of his shots but he did improve his shot rates as the season progressed. In his first 32 games, Kessel had 20 points and 54 shots on goal (1.69 shots per game) and then scored 23 points with 61 shots on goal (2.54 shots per game) in his last 24 games.

#16 Anaheim Ducks winger Rickard Rakell scored nine goals in 52 goals, finishing with a career-low 6.3% shooting percentage. Over the past three seasons, there are 120 forwards that have recorded at least 400 shots on goal. The forwards from that group with the lowest shooting percentage: Boston’s Taylor Hall (7.7%), Rakell (8.0%), Columbus’ Boone Jenner (8.2%), Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk (8.7%), Dallas’ Tyler Seguin (8.9%), and Arizona’s Clayton Keller (8.9%).

#17 The forwards from that group that have the highest shooting percentages: Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (20.1%), Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point (19.2%), Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos (18.2%), Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele (17.8%), and San Jose’s Tomas Hertl (17.3%).

#18 Florida Panthers left winger Jonathan Huberdeau scored 19 points in the last 13 games to finish the season with 61 points, good for 12^th in league scoring. In the past three seasons Huberdeau ranks seventh among all scorers with 231 points.

#19 Pittsburgh Penguins center Jared McCann rose to the occasion when Evgeni Malkin was injured. McCann returned to the lineup a few days after Malkin was hurt and from March 20 through the end of the regular season, McCann scored 22 points (9 G, 13 A) in 26 games, giving him 32 points in 43 games. Just something to consider if the Penguins consider moving Malkin in the offseason.

#20 Finally, the Detroit Red Wings’ leading scorer this season was defenseman Filip Hronek, who had a modest 26 points in 56 games. Even more remarkable is that 17 of his 26 points were second assists. He had 11 more secondary assists than any other Red Wings player.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

SCOTT CULLEN’S 20 FANTASY HOCKEY POINTS 3/17/21

Scott Cullen — Wed, 17 Mar 2021 19:07:03 +0000

Each week, Scott Cullen will dive into the numbers to unearth some analytical insights to help your fantasy team.

This week, Alexander Ovechkin and Kirill Kaprizov are shooting more, Johnny Hockey and Phil Kessel are shooting less, and some surprising lines are among the most productive through the first half of the NHL season.

20 FANTASY HOCKEY POINTS

#1 Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews scored 18 goals in the first 18 games of the season, scoring on 24% of his shots. Since then, he has three goals in nine games, scoring on 8.1% of his shots. Matthews has injured his wrist so that may be affecting his shot, but he was also not likely to continue scoring on 24% of his shots either. He is one of the elite shooters in the league but in his four seasons prior to this one, Matthews scored on 15.7% of his shots.

#2 Through his first 16 games this season, Washington Capitals superstar left winger Alexander Ovechkin had 16 points but just six goals. He was generating fewer than 3.6 shots per game, a rate that would be a career low. Since then, though, Ovechkin has started to get more pucks to the net and it is starting to pay off, at least in terms of goals. In nine games since then, Ovechkin has six goals and 45 shots on goal.

#3 Calgary Flames left winger Johnny Gaudreau is going in the opposite direction. Johnny Hockey had 16 points, including nine goals, with 35 shots on goal in 15 games to start the season. Since then, he has two goals and five assists, with 21 shots on goal, in 14 games. In three games with Darryl Sutter behind the Flames bench, Gaudreau has zero points and three shots on goal.

ST. PAUL, MN - JANUARY 31: Minnesota Wild Right Wing Kirill Kaprizov (97) controls the puck during an NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and the Colorado Avalanche on January 31, 2021, at Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

#4 Minesota Wild rookie left winger Kirill Kaprizov started his NHL career with 16 points in 17 games, but only had 28 shots on goal, which seemed like trouble waiting to happen. Since then, Kaprizov has nine points in 10 games but he has 43 shots on goal in that time. If Kaprizov is going to maintain this shooting trend, it could make it easier for him to sustain his offensive production.

#5 One of the best stories from early in the season, Arizona Coyotes winger Conor Garland had 14 points and 52 shots on goal in his first 14 games. Since then, he has eight points and 20 shots on goal in 14 games. The decline in shot rate, from 3.7 per game to 1.4 per game, is devastating and a legitimate reason for concern for the Coyotes and fantasy managers alike.

#6 In 28 games this season, Tampa Bay Lightning left winger Ondrej Palat has already recorded a career-high 15 power play points. With Nikita Kucherov out of the Tampa Bay lineup following hip surgery, Palat is averaging a career-high 3:19 of ice time per game with the man advantage and has scored seven goals on 16 shots on the power play, making the most of his opportunity to play first unit power play minutes.

#7 Palat is one of eight forwards who has scored more than 55% of his points on the power play this season. The others: Eeli Tolvanen, Victor Olofsson, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nick Ritchie, Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe, and Joe Pavelski.

#8 Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty is enjoying a productive season. His 22 points in 27 games is a career high 0.81 points per game and yet he is doing it without shooting. There are 164 defensemen that have played at least 250 5-on-5 minutes this season and Doughty ranks 162^nd with 2.33 shots per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play.

Neal Pionk #4 of the Winnipeg Jets

#9 Since the beginning of February, Winnipeg Jets defenseman Neal Pionk ranks second among all blueliners with 0.90 points per game (18 points in 20 games), behind only Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman, who has 0.91 points per game (20 points in 22 games).

#10 Beware the checking line of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Zach Aston-Reese, Teddy Blueger, and Brandon Tanev are the only trio in the league to play more than 100 5-on-5 minutes together without having a goal against, going more than 139 shutout minutes so far. The line with the next most time on ice together without a goal? Boston’s Trent Frederic, Charlie Coyle, and Craig Smith at 92 minutes.

#11 There are 55 lines that have played together for more than 100 5-on-5 minutes this season. Only three have scored more than five goals per 60 minutes. Philadelphia’s trio of James van Riemsdyk, Sean Couturier, and Joel Farabee leads the way with 5.62 goals/60, followed closely by Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov, Victor Rask, and Mats Zuccarello (5.59), and Vegas’ Max Pacioretty, Chandler Stephenson, and Mark Stone (5.39).

#12 With Stephenson injured, there may be an opportunity for 2017 sixth overall pick Cody Glass to reap the rewards of playing with two of the premier wingers in the game. Stone ranks third in the league (among forwards with at least 200 5-on-5 minutes) with 3.63 points/60 while Pacioretty ranks ninth, with 3.01 points/60.

#13 One of the more interesting lines in hockey this season resides in Florida, where Aleksander Barkov is centering Carter Verhaeghe and Anthony Duclair. According to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model, that line has the highest expected goal rate (3.85) of any line with more than 100 5-on-5 minutes.

#14 The line that ranks second in expected goal rate, with 3.71 xG/60, just lost their left winger for the rest of the season. New York Islanders captain Anders Lee suffered a torn ACL, which will keep him sidelined for the rest of the campaign, but he had been highly productive alongside Mathew Barzal and Jordan Eberle. Kieffer Bellows has produced three goals in three games since moving into Lee’s spot in the lineup.

#15 Colorado Avalanche winger Joonas Donskoi is a solid middle-six winger who contributes some secondary offense but has never had more than 37 points in an NHL season. It now appears that he is trying to generate offense without putting shots on net. He is down to 0.85 shots on goal per game, less than half of his rate last season and is trending down. Donskoi has six shots on goal in the past 12 games and two shots on goal in the past eight. He also has 16 points in 27 games, a career-high 0.59 points per game.

#16 One of the main reasons to worry about the production of Arizona Coyotes right winger Phil Kessel is that he is not generating enough chances. His rates of shot attempts (12.1 per 60), shots (6.3 per 60), and expected goals (0.58 per 60) are all at career lows. Last season was pretty much a disaster for Kessel as he finished with 38 points and 2.2 shots on goal per game in 70 games. This season, he does have 18 points in 29 games but just 1.8 shots on goal per game. Once the shots dry up, it gets increasingly difficult to keep the points flowing. Unless you’re Joonas Donskoi, apparently.

St. Louis Blues center Jordan Kyrou (33)

#17 With Vladimir Tarasenko returning to the St. Louis Blues lineup and producing four points in his first four games back, it does not look great for Jordan Kyrou, the early season scoring star for St. Louis whose role is diminishing by the game. Kyrou has one assist and five shots on goal in the four games since Tarasenko returned.

#18 The Buffalo Sabres fired head coach Ralph Krueger. There is not much reason to argue with a team that is 6-18-4 and winless in 12 looking for a new voice and Don Granato was named interim head coach. The Sabres rank 31^st in 5-on-5 goals for (1.52 per 60 minutes) and 29^th in 5-on-5 goals against (2.92 per 60 minutes). Their special teams were around middle of the pack which is not nearly enough to overcome that 5-on-5 beatdown.

#19 Jeff Skinner might be an obvious candidate for improved performance under a new head coach in Buffalo because he was buried on the fourth line and even banished to the press box by Krueger for multiple games as a healthy scratch. Even in his limited role, Skinner was leading the Sabres in shot attempts/60 (17.1) and shots/60 (8.9).

#20 The leading 5-on-5 goal scorer for Buffalo is Sam Reinhart, who has six. He is followed by Tobias Rieder (5), Curtis Lazar (4), and Riley Sheahan (3). Each of those next three forwards has gone through excruciating goal slumps in their careers.

Rieder played 67 games for Edmonton in 2018-2019 and did not score a goal. In 2016-2017, Lazar did not score a goal in 33 games for Ottawa before scoring in his fourth game with Calgary. He then went 39 games without a goal to start the 2017-2018 season. Sheahan played 81 games for Detroit in 2016-2017 and scored his first two goals of the season in the final game of that season. It is probably not a great sign when those players are among your team’s 5-on-5 goal scoring leaders. Jack Eichel, Taylor Hall, and Victor Olofsson each have one goal during 5-on-5 play while Skinner and Eric Staal both have two.

Advanced stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Metropolitan Division Training Camp News

Ryan Dadoun — Fri, 28 Sep 2018 13:36:52 +0000

Carolina Hurricanes

TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 18: Carolina Hurricanes right wing Andrei Svechnikov (37) skates during the NHL preseason game between the Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning on September 18, 2018, at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)

There’s some cautious optimism that this might be the season Carolina ends its nine-season playoff drought, but the Hurrianes’ chances took a blow before the season even started. Victor Rask sustained a hand injury that will cost him months and perhaps the hardest part of it to swallow is the fact that he was hurt in the kitchen and not the ice.

The one thing Carolina did better than any team last season was win faceoffs (54.1%) and Rask was a significant part of that (54.9%) as were Derek Ryan (56.5%) and Elias Lindholm (54.5%), who are no longer with the team. Those two departures combined with Rask’s tough-luck injury have created a void up the middle that there is no clear answer for. Sebastian Aho has been tested as a center, but coach Rod Brind’Amour hasn’t liked what he’s seen there.

Lucas Wallmark might end up making the team, especially given the Hurricanes’ need for centers right now. He excelled in the AHL last season with 17 goals and 55 points in 45 contests. He also got into 11 games with Carolina, but averaged just 9:30 minutes and recorded a single goal.

Outside of the center issues, the Hurricanes’ other big focus has been Andrei Svechnikov, who is fighting for a roster spot after being taken with the second overall pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. It wouldn’t be surprising to at least see him get a nine-game trial with Carolina so that the Hurricanes can test him out in the regular season before coming to a final decision.

Columbus Blue Jackets

When everyone’s healthy, Columbus has a strong blueline, but that ideal isn’t what the Blue Jackets will start with. Seth Jones suffered a second-degree MCL sprain on Tuesday, which is projected to sideline him for four-to-six weeks. Needless to say, losing Jones is a far bigger deal to Columbus than Murray. Jones has been a top-tier defenseman for a while now, but he found another level in 2017-18 with 16 goals and 57 points while averaging 24:36 minutes per game. That led to him finishing fourth in Norris Trophy voting.

To further complicate the situation, Ryan Murray isn’t expected to be ready for the start of the season. Injuries have plagued Murray’s career and in this case it’s a groin issue that will cost him time. When the Blue Jackets were only looking at dealing with the absence of Murray, there was speculation that Markus Nutivaara might be slotted into as David Savard’s partner – at least until Murray was available as an alternative. It’d be a big opportunity for Nutivaara after he averaged just 16:02 minutes in 2017-18, but it’s worth noting that he did a fair amount offensively in that role with seven goals and 23 points in 61 games. Now that Jones is out too, the Blue Jackets need to scramble to find new pairings, but this just makes it more likely that Nutivaara will be on the second pairing, whether it’s with Savard or someone else should Savard get bumped to the top unit. Nutivaara might also be asked to serve on the second power-play unit now that Jones is out.

At least the Blue Jackets also got some positive news on the injury front as Zach Werenski is on track to play in the season opener. He underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum after playing with the problem for most of 2017-18. That injury might have been part of the reason he went from recording 47 points as a rookie to 37 points as a sophomore, so he could have a nice bounce back this season provided he’s healthy. If Columbus had to enter the season without Werenski and Jones, it would have created a massive void, but at least it appears they’re narrowing avoiding that nightmare scenario.

New Jersey Devils

Cory Schneider had an up-and-down 2017-18 campaign, but rather than wonder if he can be consistent going forward, the more immediate question is if he’ll be available. He had hip surgery over the summer and while he has practiced during training camp, he hasn’t gotten into a preseason game. That puts his status for New Jersey’s opener on Oct. 6 very much in question.

Keith Kinkaid would start in Schneider’s absence and given how well Kinkaid did down the stretch last season, if Schneider ends up missing a meaningful amount of time, Kinkaid could take that opportunity to make a strong case to steal the starting gig. Meanwhile, veteran goalie Eddie Lack is projected to make the Devils’ opening game roster if Schneider isn’t ready.

At least the Devils sorted out a different question mark on Sept. 22 when they signed Miles Wood to a four-year, $11 million contract. Wood missed the start of training camp as a RFA contract holdout, but these events might favor New Jersey in the long run. Giving Wood four years is a risk given that he still has more to prove, but the 23-year-old forward had an encouraging 19 goals, 32 points, and 84 penalty minutes in 76 contests last season, so if he continues to develop than he should more than live up to that contract.

New York Islanders

Luca Sbisa joined the Islanders’ training camp on a tryout basis and ended up securing a one-year, $1.5 million contract with time to spare. In doing so, the Islanders have created a logjam on the blueline with eight different defensemen signed to one-way contracts. They also have Dennis Seidenberg participating in their camp on a tryout basis, but it’s hard to see him earning a one-way contract after Sbisa already signed.

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - OCTOBER 26: New York Islanders Center Mathew Barzal (13) skates with the puck during a NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and New York Islanders on October 26, 2017 at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN.The Wild defeated the Islanders 6-4.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

Of course, the big question for the Islanders going into the season is how their top two forward lines will shake out. John Tavares signing with the Toronto Maple Leafs naturally created a big hole that no one on the team is capable of truly filling. The Islanders are fortunate in the sense that Mathew Barzal excelled as a rookie in 2017-18, so they at least have a strong first-line center even without Tavares, but then who do they put on the second line? Brock Nelson might end up getting that gig. He’s been tried out with some of the Islanders’ top wingers during camp, including Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle, and Josh Bailey. Nelson is obviously going to be a huge step down from John Tavares, but taking Nelson on his own merits, he might end up being an okay second-line center.

One player that won’t be trying to fill that offensive void left by Tavares, at least not at the start of the season, is Joshua Ho-Sang. The Islanders have already reassigned him to the AHL, which has to be extremely disappointing for the 2014 first-round pick. Ho-Sang hasn’t been able to establish himself as quickly as some hoped and now it seems that even the fresh start he was provided by the Islanders changing their general manager and coach hasn’t moved things in a positive direction.

New York Rangers

The Rangers will began the rebuilding process last season and gave this new era a face when they hired David Quinn to serve as the new head coach straight from Boston University. A new coach on a rebuilding team creates a golden opportunity for young players and it looks like Filip Chytil has taken advantage of that. Chytil has been one of the Rangers’ standouts and given Quinn’s philosophy of having his best nine forwards serve on the top-nine regardless of positional considerations, Quinn should find a way to give Chytil healthy opportunities in the regular season provided the 19-year-old forward continues to impress.

Not everyone has had as strong a camp though and Jimmy Vesey might not have done enough to earn more than a fourth-line spot out of the gate. Vesey might be playing alongside Vladislav Namestnikov on that unit, which would be a huge step down from most of 2017-18 when Namestnikov was primarily playing alongside Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. Whether you feel the Rangers won or lost the Ryan McDonagh trade with Tampa Bay, it seems evident that Namestnikov was the biggest loser in the shift.

It’s also worth noting that Kevin Shattenkirk made his preseason debut on Sept. 22, which was his first game since Jan. 18 after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus. He got a pair of assists in the 5-2 loss and while preseason statistics aren’t terribly useful, it’s encouraging to see him do well after being absent for so long.

Philadelphia Flyers

It wouldn’t be the Philadelphia Flyers if there wasn’t goaltending drama. The latest chapter starts with Michal Neuvirth, who now appears doubtful for the start of the regular season due to an undisclosed injury. If he can’t play, then the Flyers safest alternative would be Alex Lyon given that he got into 11 games with Philadelphia last season – but Lyon is dealing with a lower-body injury and therefore also not an option.

VOORHEES, NJ - JULY 06: Carter Hart of the Philadelphia Flyers poses for his official headshot for the 2017-2018 season on July 6, 2017 at the Virtua Flyers Skate Zone in Voorhees, New Jersey. (Photo by Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Carter Hart

That leaves Anthony Stolarz, who is coming off two knee surgeries and played a total of four games in 2017-18 (three in the ECHL), and Carter Hart, the man Flyers fans are putting their hopes and dreams on. Hart has done great in the preseason, but even so it’s reasonable to wonder if it’s really a good idea to send him straight from the WHL to the NHL? It’s asking a lot of him and might not be ideal for his development. The Flyers might end up having to acquire a goalie, which is something that would have seemed crazy just a few weeks ago when it looked like they had an organizational logjam in goal.

Outside of the Flyers’ goalie issues, one emerging storyline has been Corban Knight. He’s 28-years-old, has only played in 29 career NHL games and spent the last two seasons entirely in the minors so he naturally didn’t come into training camp with any special attention paid to him. Knight has managed to claw himself into the conservation for the Flyers’ fourth-line spot though, frequently playing alongside Scott Laughton and Michael Raffl. Knight survived Tuesday’s round of roster cuts, so if nothing else, he would be one of the last players cut if he doesn’t make the team.

Even if Knight makes the team, he wouldn’t have a huge impact, but it would make for a nice feel good story of a guy that kept fighting long after he lost the prospect tag and eventually managed to defy the odds.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Jean-Sebastien Dea has managed to survive the Penguins’ cuts thus far and is consequently one of the final 15 forwards on the roster. He’s coming off his best campaign in the AHL to date with 18 goals and 50 points in 70 games. He also has the versatility to play center or right wing and kill penalties. If he does make the Penguins, it will likely be as a fourth-liner though.

Whatever happens with Dea, the biggest change for the Penguins going into the season will be the addition of offseason signing Jack Johnson. It wasn’t long ago that Johnson was a workhorse that consistently logged an average of over 24 minutes each season for Columbus, but his role declined in 2017-18 to the point where he averaged 19:33 minutes and was a healthy scratch in the playoffs. With that all behind him, it looks like Johnson will enter the season on the Penguins’ second pairing with Justin Schultz. The X-Factor there is the fact that Schultz skipped Wednesday’s preseason game due to a nagging upper-body injury. Penguins coach Mike Sullivan didn’t make it seem like anything serious, but obviously if Schultz ends up being unavailable for the start of the season then Johnson will temporarily play alongside someone else.

Washington Capitals

After winning the Stanley Cup, the Washington Capitals made a point of minimizing roster turnover, so naturally there weren’t a lot of question marks going into training camp. That’s led to a quieter preseason, so there has still been a couple smaller storylines.

For example, Devante Smith-Pelly hasn’t gotten into a preseason game yet and that’s reportedly because he hasn’t lived up to the Capitals’ conditioning standards. At this point it’s not clear if the Capitals will use Smith-Pelly as part of their opening game roster. It’s unfortunate to see this happen given that he was one of the role players that helped push the Capitals over the top with his seven goals and eight points in the postseason. Washington felt good enough about what he brought to the table to sign him to a one-year, $1 million contract over the summer, but now it seems like he might not live up to that deal.

The Capitals might also start the season without defenseman Michal Kempny, but for a very different reason. He’s sidelined after absorbing a high elbow from St. Louis’ Robert Bortuzzo during Tuesday’s game. Although the Capitals have simply termed Kempny’s injury as “upper body,” it’s reportedly a concussion and if that’s true then it’s hard to say how long he’ll be out for. Kempny is another one of those role players that came through for the Capitals during the playoffs. In his case, Kempny logged 17:42 minutes per contest in the postseason, which led to Washington signing him to a four-year, $10 million contract back in June. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that 21-year-old defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler has looked good in training camp and should be included in the Capitals’ final roster if Kempny isn’t available.

Lightning Rod – Carolina Hurricanes 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:25:02 +0000

REVIEW/STATE OF PLAY - After missing the playoffs for nine straight seasons and not progressing beyond sixth in their division - despite favourable draft positions - new owner Tom Dundon promised a shake up and has been delivering. He replaced Ron Francis as General Manager with Don Waddell, who had been with the organization running business operations. Team great Rod Brind’Amour, an assistant coach with the team for the prior seven years, was appointed coach, replacing Bill Peters.

They further delivered change by agreeing to a blockbuster deal involving two number five NHL draft Picks in Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin in exchange for dominating 6’6 defenseman Dougie Hamilton along with Michael Ferland and promising prospect Adam Fox. Jeff Skinner was moved for a prospect and draft picks while Justin Faulk is one of the most prominent names in trade rumours as a goal scoring right shot defender and will bring a considerable return. The turnover of the line-up will include the addition of their last two first round picks Marin Necas and Andrei Svechnikov in prominent roles in the top six.

REVAMPING THE LINE UP – MORE CHIPS TO FALL - Faulk has seen a decline in point over the last three seasons from a high of 49, however scored 15, 16, and 17 goals the three previous seasons. A shooting percentage half of what he had in those season (3.8%) meant eight in 2017-18. A coveted right-hand defender he will also draw considerable return on the trade market. The Faulk situation is complicated by a strong defensive core with over $25 million dollars per season in cap space devoted to six players – Hamilton, Jacob Slavin, Faulk, free agent acquisition Calvin De Haan, Brett Pesce and Trevor van Reimsdyk. A formidable top six but a position of strength to trade from.

They will need some of that space to address the forward group and Hamilton brings a right-handed shot, 17 goals of his own and fills the hole Faulk will leave in his wake. De Haan was signed to bolster the left side of the defense. Hamilton and De Haan will likely line up together provide some relief for the shut down pairing of Slavin and Pesce.

Sebastian Aho

DANGEROUS DUOS AND HIGH END ROOKIES - The offense on the forward group is led by the tandem of Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen who had 65 and 64 points respectively. Their emergence last season was a ray of light in a dark year but will find it a challenge to take another step forward next season without some supporting help. A regression could be in store for both. Micheal Ferland was added bringing much needed size to the forward group. He scored a career high 21 goals lining up beside Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau and can play with skill players in a complementary role.

More importantly they will be looking for an improvement from within primarily with an injection of youth throughout the line-up. Victor Rask had a disappointing season posting his lowest point totals and spent time as a healthy scratch. A return to form would help but will be largely reliant on how new coach Brind’Amour uses him.

Number two over all pick in the 2018 NHL Andrei Svechnikov looks NHL ready and brings high end skill to the wing. He may find himself with reliable Jordan Staal to allow a role in the top six supported by a premier defensive forward. They are also hoping Martin Necas can make the leap to the NHL. Their first-round pick in 2017 scored seven points in 10 NHL games before leaving to shine in the Czech Extraliga and could be ready to challenge Rask for a spot on the depth chart at center.

GOAL NIGHTMARE - Goaltending was an enormous disappointment after acquiring Scott Darling, ‘the best backup in the league’ from Chicago with his glittering numbers. He stumbled badly and no one saw a 0.888 SV% as part of the plan. A large hole remains at the back end for the team. Cam Ward left the team after 13 years signing with Chicago as a free agent. They added Petr Mrazek in free agency on a one-year, $1.5 million ‘show me’ contract. At 26-years-old and once touted as a promising goaltending prospect, he and Darling have shown promise in the past. The Canes need one of them to fill a big hole in the crease.

The veteran leadership on the team will rest with Jordan Staal and Justin Williams Staal is one of the better two-way center men in the league and always among the faceoff leaders - this season he was 6^th with a face off win percentage of 56.6% for players who took more than 1000 faceoffs. A fixture on the ice in critical situations. Williams turns 37 and is an UFA at the end of the season. Third in team scoring he provides solid two-way play. A terrific leader and example in a room of youngsters. Coach Brindamour will rely on them heavily.

OUTLOOK - A team in rebuilding mode once again entering a year of transition. With the introduction of youth and time to learn a new system, it will be an up and down year for the Hurricanes.

Fantasy Hockey Waiver Wire: Top Line Additions

McKeen's Hockey — Tue, 03 Nov 2015 13:03:24 +0000

As the season progresses we are starting to see some trends that can have a strong impact on your fantasy hockey team but a keen waiver wire addition. There are players who have suddenly found themselves either on their team’s top line or with a plum fantasy line mate and are widely available. Some rookies have survived the nine game mark and are now worth investing in and there are always injuries and call ups to keep an eye on.

Benoit Pouliot – Edmonton Oilers, Left Wing 39% owned

While Connor McDavid and Nail Yakupov are widely owned across fantasy leagues, Pouliot is the third man in on that line and number 67 has shown to have some chemistry with number 97 and at only 39% owned is available in many leagues. Coming off a five game point streak don’t sleep on Pouliot.

Pascal Dupuis – Pittsburgh Penguins, Left Wing 31% owned

The Crosby – Kessel combination that many thought would be deadly has failed to click early on and Sid is struggling. As a result, he has been reunited with his old running mate who is healthy again in Pascal Dupuis. Along with Patrick Hornqvist on that line it is only a matter of time before Crosby breaks out and if Dupuis is along for the ride, you want to own him.

Ryan Garbutt – Chicago Blackhawks, Right Wing 15% owned

No, Ryan Garbutt has not scored a goal yet this season, and has only one assist. So why is he on the waiver wire list? He does have 25 shots and 34 hits in ten games and has found himself playing on a line with Jonathan Toews and Teuvo Teravainen. He is generating scoring chances and playing with quality line mates so expect the production to come shortly.

Colin Miller – Boston Bruins, Defence 28% owned

Perhaps you were sleeping on Colton Parayko and missed out on this years John Klingberg, if so step right up and grab Colin Miller. Miller has three points in the last three games, is paired with Zdeno Chara and has worked his way into the Bruins top four. It is not a fluke either as Miller was a key piece in the Lucic deal. He was the second highest scoring defenceman last year in the AHL with the Calder winning Monarchs. He was a sleeper heading into the season, but don’t sleep on him now.

Victor Rask – Carolina Hurricanes, Centre 36% owned

Rask is centering the top line with Kris Versteeg and Eric Staal, which is as god as it gets in Carolina. Rask had an impressive rookie season scoring 33 points and should have no trouble eclipsing that as the Canes top centre this year. His three point game against Tampa on Sunday may be a harbinger of things to come.

Brett Connolly – Boston Bruins, Right Wing 36% owned

Connolly has found himself on a red hot line with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand and has a six game point streak to show for it. The 2010 first round pick of Tampa has fallen under the radar as a result of injuries which slowed his development. Still only 23 he could have a breakout season and be a great value add as a waiver or free agent claim.

Torrey Mitchell – Montreal Canadiens, Right Wing 34% owned

Mitchell has been red hot this season for the Habs with nine points in 13 games including a current four game point streak. He is very valuable in leagues that count peripheral categories as well as he has produced 20 penalty minutes, 14 hits, 10 blocks 18 shots and is a plus -6.

Paul Byron – Montreal Canadiens, Centre 6% owned

For those of you in super deep leagues, Byron was claimed off waiver from Calgary by Montreal and has three points in his first three games. Both his goals are shorthanded goals to boot for leagues that have multi category scoring. Byron is centering a line with Torrey Mitchell and DSP.

All ownership numbers based on Fantrax leagues

All line combinations are from Frozen pools via Dobber Hockey