Vince HINOSTROZA – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – PITTSBURGH PENGUINS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Sat, 07 Oct 2023 20:41:10 +0000

Review: For the first time, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin played a full 82 games in the same year and the Penguins’ other star forward, Jake Guentzel, appeared in 78 contests. You’d think that’d be a recipe for success, but instead Pittsburgh finished with a 40-31-11 record, narrowly missing the playoffs for the first time since 2006. The supporting cast just wasn’t good enough. Other than their main three forwards and Rickard Rakell, who had 28 goals and 60 points, no member of the Penguins reached the 50-point milestone, resulting in the squad finishing 16th in goals per game (3.18). Pittsburgh likely would have still squeaked into the postseason had Tristan Jarry enjoyed a repeat of his 2021-22 success, but after recording a 2.42 GAA and .919 save percentage in 58 contests during that campaign, he dropped to a 2.90 GAA and a .909 save percentage in 47 starts in 2022-23. Pittsburgh also lacked an appealing alternative as Casey DeSmith posted a 3.17 GAA and .905 save percentage in 38 contests. The Penguins consequently wasted a season at a time when they’re running out of opportunities to make a Stanley Cup run in the Crosby/Malkin/Letang era.

What’s Changed? Pittsburgh made a huge splash by acquiring Erik Karlsson in exchange primarily for draft picks, though the Penguins also moved Mikael Granlund, Jeff Petry and DeSmith in the process for cap purposes. Outside of that, Pittsburgh signed Alex Nedeljkovic to serve as their new backup goaltender and lured free agent defenseman Ryan Graves with a six-year, $27 million deal.

What would success look like? Getting back to the playoffs will likely involve a strong year out of Karlsson. Expecting him to get 25 goals and 101 points like he did with the Sharks in 2022-23 is overly optimistic, but a 60–70-point showing is obtainable. Between Karlsson and Letang, the Penguins should also be able to deploy two strong power-play units after finishing in the middle of the pack with a 21.7% power-play conversion rate last year. Combine that with even a modest rebound from Jarry and the Penguins would have the makings of a strong team.

What could go wrong? That’s provided that Karlsson stays healthy, which is far from certain given his lengthy injury history. Then of course there’s the fact that Crosby and Letang are 36 while Malkin is 37. How much longer can that trio really lead the charge in Pittsburgh? On top of that, Malkin being healthy has been a rarity, so even if he remains effective, expecting anything close to a repeat of his 2022-23 82-game showing would be surprising. Any significant injury to Crosby or Malkin might also push Jeff Carter into a second-line role, which is not a job the 38-year-old is still suited for based on his 29-point showing last season.

Top Breakout Candidate: With the Penguins going all-in on the present, they lack significant breakout candidates. That said, if the Penguins run into injury troubles, which is certainly plausible given the team’s age, Samuel Poulin will be one to watch as a forward who might step in and turn heads, though after missing most of 2022-23 to focus on his mental health, he’s expected to start the campaign in the AHL.

Forwards

Sidney Crosby

Sidney Crosby showed little sign of slowing as he finished his 18^th season, every one of which has come above a point per game. Crosby still possesses the vision and playmaking of an elite puck distributor. His 1.6 assist per hour of even-strength hockey was tops on the Penguins. Per All Three Zones, he was in the 99^th percentile of NHL forwards with regards to high-danger passes and in-zone shot assists. While his defense took a step back from what we’ve become accustomed to, the Penguins found themselves in a lot of situations that required shootout-style approaches to the game. While the Penguins power-play had periods of frustration, Crosby is ultimately still the straw that stirs the drink on the man-advantage. Crosby still elevates every linemate he plays with based on his ability to draw attention to himself and dish no-look, last minute passes to the tape of his teammates. Crosby exhibited the same ability to hound and steal the puck as he has throughout his career last season. Expect more of the same this season and at least one more sensational moment that comes via a ridiculous backhand goal.

Evgeni Malkin

Repeated lower-body injuries may have robbed Evgeni Malkin of some of his explosive gallop through the neutral zone, but they haven’t stopped him from being one of the most consistent offensive threats in the league. In 2021-22, Malkin played in every single game and went over a point per game for the season. Like his counterpart in Crosby, most of Malkin’s game has been immune to Father Time. Last year was different for Malkin in that he shot less and passed more. Per the All Three Zones project, Malkin was in the 97^th percentile of NHL forwards for primary shot assists and only in the 64^th percentile for individual shot rates. Malkin’s defensive performance last season was once again not his strongest point, but it was more in line with team average than in prior years. Overall, Malkin still has the desire to take a game over. He is relentless in attack, difficult to move off the puck, and willing to take risks to elevate the play of himself and his teammates. If his increase in passing the puck holds through this year, he could achieve 800 career assists. Overall, Malkin will be the central focus of the second line and may get the boost of playing with Erik Karlsson on the blueline this season.

Jake Guentzel

The son of a great coach, Guentzel is coming off another year where he consistently exhibited a high hockey IQ and stayed a step ahead of most of his peers in terms of his offensive approach. Guentzel is a rare combination of elite playmaker and finisher as evidenced by his results in the All Three Zones project. Guentzel was in the 98^th percentile for in-zone shot rates and in the 91^st percentile for in-zone shot assists at even-strength. He is difficult to mark in tight spaces and uses open spaces to his advantage. The Penguins power-play has an expected-goal generation rate that is 2.63 goals per higher when Guentzel is on the ice versus when he is not. His defensive impacts have been notoriously low and bottomed out last year, but are offset by the number of chances, shots, and opportunities he creates at the other end of the ice. The Penguins routinely control the flow of the play and dominate possession when Guentzel makes an appearance. An offseason injury forced him to undergo surgery on his ankle that will cause him to miss at least a portion of the Penguins first few weeks. Overall, the Penguins will be looking at him to generate scoring chances across his entire line when he returns to the lineup.

Rickard Rakell

Rakell’s first full season with the Penguins saw him float around the top six but primarily find a home affixed to the side of Sidney Crosby. Rakell spent a lot of time in battle areas of the ice creating space for his linemates. He also garnered a lot of second and third opportunities and assisted greatly with increasing the shot volume of his line. Per the All Three Zones project, he was in the 97^th percentile of NHL forwards with regard to his impact on in-zone shots. His 28 goals last season were the most he’s scored since the 2017-18 season. He found himself as a regular on the Penguins top power-play unit, especially as a viable net-front option. While no slouch defensively, this hasn’t been his hallmark and he has not killed penalties so far for head coach Mike Sullivan. He has the utility to be able to play alongside either of the top two center options in Pittsburgh due to his straightforward approach and ability to get to the difficult areas. The expectation is that he’ll be back on the top line alongside Crosby again this season, serving in a role that can both grind pucks out and forecheck effectively.

Bryan Rust

Bryan Rust’s 2021-22 season was one that saw him struggle in a variety of offensive buckets. Certainly, his finishing ability was a part of that, but he also suffered a regression in other areas of puck support ability. Rusts’ best seasons have come when he’s carrying the puck and generating opportunities off of the rush, an area where he took a step back again last season. His rush offense put him in the 46^th percentile of NHL forwards per the All Three Zones project. All of these regressions saw Rust score almost a half a point per game less than the previous season and his lowest goal total since 2018-19. The good news is that he’ll have another crack inside the top six for Pittsburgh this season and potentially some power-play time as well. Rust being in the top six means he’ll also get one of Erik Karlsson or Kris Letang to aid him offensively, a duo that will certainly help Rust out from an opportunity perspective. He has strong shot totals to build off of and will have a new landscape of linemates as well.

Reilly Smith

Reilly Smith makes his way to Pittsburgh via a trade with Las Vegas that was the first official move of the new general manager of the Pittsburgh Penguins Kyle Dubas. Smith was remarkably consistent from start to finish last season, netting 26 goals and 56 points in 78 games and following that up with 14 points in 22 playoff games. Smith’s biggest strengths last season were driving to high danger scoring areas and supporting the play via transition both out of the defensive zone and into the offensive zone. Smith is extremely comfortable with the puck on his stick, makes sound decisions with it in transition, and should have no issue playing anywhere within Pittsburgh’s top-six forward group as a result. Early expectations are that he will make his debut flanking Evgeni Malkin, giving him a world class center to feed pucks towards in transition. Smith played on the power-play and penalty kill last season and was effective in both roles, but truly made his way on the penalty kill side, where his presence resulted in the Golden Knights having an expected goals against rate that was over one whole goal less with him on the ice. Smith will certainly get a lot of minutes in the Pittsburgh top six with a lot of talent surrounding him, His simple, north-to-south approach should be a fine addition to that group.

Lars Eller

Lars Eller is another fresh face in the Pittsburgh bottom-six as a part of Kyle Dubas’ reclamation project for that portion of his roster. Eller’s offensive skills have taken a hit as he’s aged, but his defensive impacts are still strong, and the Penguins will be hoping he can help patch up what was an otherwise porous bottom-six forward group. The data from the All Three Zones project paints Eller as a player that still maintains an above-average ability to distribute the puck and I believe we see that on video as well. Eller’s In Zone Shot Assists and High-Danger Shot Assists were both in the 73^rd percentile of NHL forwards. An injury-shortened season two years ago saw his defensive impacts bottom out, but outside of that anomaly, he’s been reliably consistent in his ability to keep the opposition in check. Eller had the second highest rate of shots off of the forecheck and cycle at even-strength. He also boasted strong numbers in the bucket of assisting his defense with exiting the defensive zone, a testament to the attention he pays to that side of the ice. The Penguins won’t be asking him for any miracles as much as they need steady, consistent play that doesn’t end up in the defensive zone for the majority of the time.

Noel Accari

Noel Acciari has been acquired again by Kyle Dubas, this time with the Pittsburgh Penguins on a new three-year contract that will pay him an average of two million dollars per year. Acciari does all of the things well that you’d come to expect from a bottom-six forward. He plays with energy, hits a lot, blocks a lot of shots, and other momentum stealing skillsets. Acciari will likely play a role on the penalty-kill in Pittsburgh as well, an area that needs a rebuild after inconsistent struggles last year and a lack of a sense of urgency. Acciari, like the other players Dubas’ has brought in for the bottom six, boasts strong defensive returns and keeps the puck out of the defensive zone altogether. He is more of a puck retriever than a puck carrier but doesn’t handle the puck in an uncomfortable fashion. His pace and north-to-south approach put him in positions to generate a lot of takeaways for his team. Expect Acciari to feature for Mike Sullivan as a true utility forward that can fill in gaps up and down the lineup without causing great drop off.

Matt Nieto

Matt Nieto arrives to Pittsburgh from free agency on a new two-year contract as a part of a re-built bottom-six forward group in that is one of the reasons the Penguins were on the outside looking in last year. Nieto spent time mixed between San Jose and Colorado, but in both locations, he was a strong defensive forward and took great care of the puck. Nieto plays strong in wall battles and comes away with pucks that elongate possession. His defensive impacts were good for the 91^st percentile of NHL forwards and that is felt even more on the penalty kill where he reduced Colorado’s expected goal against rates by over two goals per hour upon arriving there. Nieto is a 200-foot player that should provide a huge boost to a Penguins bottom-six that needed to be deployed in a careful and particular fashion last year. From a possession and expected goals perspective, Nieto had an uncharacteristically rough go from the perspective of controlling the play. As a member of the Sharks, he had the fourth highest rate of shots off of the forecheck and cycle per the All Three Zones project. Pittsburgh will be hoping he can replicate those results and continue his defensive impacts in their bottom six for the upcoming season.

Defense

Erik Karlsson

Erik Karlsson is coming off of a Norris Trophy winning season that produced offensive results the likes of which we have not seen in some time. He crossed the 100-point threshold in remarkable fashion and exhibited a high level of manipulation with the puck on his stick, devastating opposing skaters and goaltenders alike. In All Three Zones data, Karlsson found himself in the 100^th percentile for primary assists, scoring chance assists, neutral zone shot assists, shot contributions, and defensive finishing, all at even-strength. Karlsson’s defensive impacts are notoriously poor as he’s deployed and functions as more of a “fourth forward” than a defenseman. This isn’t to say that Karlsson is inept defensively. He’s just more unavailable defensively. He has recoverability and gap control to be effective, he’s just usually off pinching somewhere or attempting to kick-start breakouts. Karlsson’s deployment in Pittsburgh should differ drastically from his deployment in San Jose as he’ll be sharing minutes with Letang. This should lessen the burden on Karlsson and give him one of Crosby or Malkin to play with on the forward side, giving him another generational talent to work with there. A repeat of 100+ points may be a big ask, but Pittsburgh can certainly provide the environment for him to make an honest attempt at it.

Kris Letang

Kris Letang is coming off a tumultuous year health-wise that ultimately ended with him receiving a Masterson Trophy for his battle against another stroke and his return to the lineup in the face of those challenges. This year, Letang will once again be a leader of both the team and the defensive group, albeit with a lot of fresh and notorious faces surrounding him. Letang’s previous legacy partner in Brian Dumoulin has moved on as the magic between them had clearly expired. Letang is still an offensive-minded defenseman who supports the play offensively among the league’s best defensemen. This is evidenced by his offensive impacts falling in the 90^th percentile of NHL defensemen last season. On the flip side, Letang struggled defensively and his decision making around joining in on offense was not as sound as previous seasons. This year, he will have a new partner in one of Ryan Graves or Marcus Pettersson and that should afford him an ability to act more innately on his instincts. Letang’s role on the power-play is now a question mark with the arrival of Erik Karlsson. Overall, despite age making its impact on his results, Letang is still an above-average offensive talent that can bolster a power-play and is still elite at retrieving pucks successfully in his defensive zone.

Marcus Pettersson

Marcus Pettersson was a calming influence on the Penguins blueline last season and posted strong defensive returns that by and large flew under the radar. Pettersson’s competence defensively coupled with his ability to calmly and effectively handle and shoot the puck put his projected WAR value for the season in the 91^st percentile of NHL defensemen. That is top line quality results and impressive given Pettersson’s unassuming nature on the ice. A strong skater with sound understanding of the game, Pettersson uses a long reach and gap control to manage zone entries well. Per the All Three Zones project, his success rate on zone exits put him in the 70^th percentile among defensemen, a trait you do not usually see among defensive-minded players. Pettersson showcased a lot of ability in distributing the puck last season as he reached a career high of 28 assists. His even-strength primary assist rate was in the 98^th percentile of NHL defensemen. He led the Penguins in blocks and had the second lowest expected goals against rate on the team. The assumption is that Pettersson may draw the assignment to play with Erik Karlsson, which will certainly be a test of his ability to maintain the defensive blueline and keep strong on-ice results in his own end.

Ryan Graves

Ryan Graves arrives in Pittsburgh via free agency, the first of two big moves from Kyle Dubas to revamp his defensive unit. Graves is a steady, consistent performance that typically showcases his best results defensively, although last year that was a different story. Graves is not a physical defenseman by any means but can handle the puck and use his stick to break up chances effectively. He traditionally has a low number of hits and last season per the All Three Zones project he was the definition of league average regarding his ability to exit the defensive zone with possession and retrieve the puck successfully. Graves is an active shooter that routinely pinches deep to garner high-quality scoring chances. His puck distribution isn’t his strong suit, and he was in the 8^th percentile among defensemen with regard to his ability to set up scoring chances with passes. Graves will likely be tasked with playing alongside Kris Letang and while that will certainly come with an increase of quality of competition, it should also lower the burden on him offensively. Overall, expect Graves to participate in every zone, support transition well, and provide a safe presence to the top six of the Penguins defensive group.

Goaltender

Tristan Jarry

The Pittsburgh Penguins finally did it – during the 2022-23 season, the perennial playoff team fell out of contention and missed the postseason for the first time since 2006, with starter Tristan Jarry’s “good enough” performance not quite hitting that milestone for the first time since he took over as the team’s number one. He wasn’t actively bad, but the aging core Pittsburgh trotted out combined with some ill-timed injuries and some surprisingly strong performances in the Metro out of Long Island and New Jersey to push both Pennsylvania teams onto the golf course a little early this year.

Jarry does an effective job bouncing back every time he puts up a year of slightly underwhelming numbers, and he’s never truly dropped into actively bad territory – which is good news for Penguins fans who hope the team will be able to retool and return to contention this year. But curiously enough, Jarry will have to head out into the crease this year as the far more reliable option – because he has a reclamation project in Alex Nejedlkovic joining him as his new tandem partner following Casey DeSmith’s departure.

Projected starts: 55-60

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – BUFFALO SABRES – NHL Player Profiles

Joe Yerdon – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Thu, 15 Sep 2022 21:41:19 +0000

FORWARDS

ST. LOUIS, MO - FEBRUARY 25: Sabres center Tage Thompson (72) during a NHL game between the Buffalo Sabres and the St. Louis Blues on February 25, 2022, at Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire),

Tage Thompson

As breakout seasons go, perhaps none were more out-of-the-blue and stunning as Tage Thompson’s 38-goal, 68-point year in 2020-2021 all while playing a position he hadn’t played in the NHL. Coach Don Granato moved Thompson to center and watched the six-foot-seven score more than twice as many goals in one season as he did in his first four with Buffalo and St. Louis. Thompson going from a player you wondered if he would ever pop off in the NHL to suddenly being the Sabres No. 1 center without a doubt is an incredible glow-up. Thompson’s rise to the top of the line-chart saw him team up with Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch to provide the Sabres’ first dangerous top line since Skinner skated next to Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart. Of his 38 goals, 26 came at even strength and 10 on the power play. Adding a couple of shorthanded tallies was a chef’s kiss on top of an incredible season. On top of that, Thompson trailed only Skinner in shots taken and he was fourth among six players on the roster to have a greater than 50 percent CorsiFor at 5-on-5 last season. The Sabres believe he can do it again and signed him to a seven-year, $50 million contract prior to training camp.

Jeff Skinner

Jeff Skinner’s Sabres career has been an incredible journey and he just finished his fourth season in Buffalo. After he scored 40 in his first season and landed an eight-year, $72 million contract his following two seasons had him buried in the lineup by then coach Ralph Krueger and his offense disappeared posting the worst seasons of his career in back-to-back years. With Krueger out and Don Granato in, Skinner found himself back on the top line and thrived. Skinner finished second on the Sabres behind Tage Thompson in goals (33) and points (63). As he’s done throughout his career, he thrived at even strength scoring 28 goals and his time on the power play increased greatly and led to five goals. Having a player with the offensive ability of Skinner made it seem like a no-brainer to put him with other players who can drive play and teaming up with Thompson and Alex Tuch helped make everyone better. Skinner’s ice time even recovered to a normal level as his average per game jumped by 2:35. What Skinner will look to avoid is the roller coaster effect he’s had year to year going from a big goal season to a more average one. After breaking free of the restrictions of the past, Skinner will aim to keep the good times rolling.

Alex Tuch

It’s not often when a player is traded for a superstar that he turns into the breath of fresh air needed to give a team life. This was the story for Alex Tuch after arriving in Buffalo from Vegas in the Jack Eichel trade. Tuch embraced being a Sabre as he was a fan of them growing up outside of Syracuse, NY and impressed fans in Western New York with his big frame he uses to drive the net and create opportunities close to the net. Tuch returned from offseason shoulder surgery to play 50 games for Buffalo and posted 12 goals and 38 points tying him for fifth with Dylan Cozens on the team. Tuch teaming up with Jeff Skinner and Tage Thompson on the top line for most of the season allowed him to be the power forward while Thompson and Skinner thrived with the room he provided. Tuch’s scoring rate of 0.76 points per-game was also a career high and his best since 2018-2019 with the Golden Knights. He was second on the Sabres behind Rasmus Asplund with a 51.6 percent CorsiFor at 5-on-5 and when you’ve got the puck more than the opponent does, you’re doing it right. Tuch also showed characteristics of being a possible future captain of the team, if not this season, then certainly down the road. With a complete offseason of training and a full season, it should mean the best is yet to come for Tuch.

Victor Olofsson

Victor Olofsson has one of the best shots in the NHL and he found ways to grow his game when his shot wasn’t there. For a span of time that’s somewhat unclear, Olofsson dealt with a wrist injury that appeared to take the speed and accuracy away from his laser beam of a shot and held him to 20 goals. Although he missed only 10 games, having his best weapon unavailable for any amount of time would be frustrating. Consider that he scored on 12.2% of his shots last season, a normal season would’ve meant scoring closer to 25 or 30 goals. The last time the Sabres had more than two 30-goal scorers in a season was 2006-2007 when they had four. Watching Olofsson evolve into a player who can do more than just score laser beam goals on the power play to one who can set up others and score for himself is a very welcome change. This isn’t to say Olofsson’s play ever disappointed the front office, but when you add more to a player’s game that can make them a better threat and keep opposing defenses on their toes, it makes a difference. This evolution in his game shows that sometimes out of the most difficult situations, solutions arise. With a new two-year contract signed and set, Olofsson will be eager to show off all his weapons.

Casey Mittelstadt

Last season was supposed to be Mittelstadt’s opportunity to show what he can really bring to the lineup. He had a great training camp and appeared ready to have his best season at the most important time of his career. Instead, an upper-body injury in the first game of the season kept him sidelined until December where he re-aggravated it and didn’t return until late January. He missed two more weeks with a separate injury in February. In all, injuries cost him 42 games and kept him to six goals and 19 points in 40 games. Mittelstadt’s career has had plenty of ups and downs to this point, but provided injuries stay away, he’ll be in the same position to show what he can bring to a rejuvenated lineup. His hands and shot are excellent as we’ve seen in the past and whether he stays at center or slides to wing, he can be a productive forward. He’ll have a bit more competition this year with Peyton Krebs, Jack Quinn, and J-J Peterka set to challenge for bigger roles and spots on the roster. He found success last season playing with Victor Olofsson and Rasmus Asplund as those three were able to have strong possession and shot generation. With good health and ice time to match it, the best of his career may be yet to come, but competition for spots among forwards will be stiff.

Dylan Cozens

The 21-year-old native of Yukon enters his third NHL season and while he’s been fine during those seasons, he’s in the best position to have a breakout season in Buffalo now. For roughly the first half of last season, Cozens was one of the Sabres most impressive young players. He showed great aptitude for carrying the puck into the zone and he helped drive play on his line. For a time, he was on a 20-goal pace, but things cooled off a little and he finished with 13 goals and 38 points. The rates on his offensive metrics all improved quite a bit and he further developed the edge to his game that won’t allow larger players to take advantage of him. He’s also not afraid to drop the gloves if the situation calls for it. Cozens saw more of his shift starts come in the offensive zone going roughly 60-40 offensive to defensive zone. This may seem a bit sheltered, but he played most of the season with Vinnie Hinostroza and Kyle Okposo and giving lines that may or may not be a bit lower in the lineup a bit more juice to get some scoring chances never hurts. With Cozens’ ability to possess the puck up the ice and able to gain the zone with the puck under control, he may be able to help get the team out of danger more often. With an expected influx of young scoring talent, it may open things up for Cozens to boost his own offensive output.

Rasmus Asplund

It’s true that many forwards who excel defensively fly under the radar unless they’re also outstanding scorers. After all, doing the grunt work doesn’t usually get on the highlight reels. But when you did through the numbers and search out players whose possession and shot suppression numbers look, perhaps no one went as unnoticed as Rasmus Asplund. At 5-on-5, Asplund was the Sabres best at CorsiFor percentage (53.3), he trailed only Alex Tuch in Shots For percentage and expected goals for percentage. Even more impressive is that he had most of his zone starts in the offensive end. Asplund is not an offensive dynamo. He had eight goals and 27 points and 22 of those were at even strength. He went 46 games between goals, when he scored Nov. 21 and not again until March 27, but his defensive work earned him a few votes for the Selke Trophy for best defensive forward. Given his defensive abilities, he’ll likely be deployed on an energy line or will line up with other players whose main skills are not centered around shutting down opponents. That Asplund has emerged like this gives Buffalo someone they can rely on to forecheck and pressure the puck relentlessly all over the ice and to play smart on the penalty kill. If Asplund were better at finishing he’d have a few more goals as he can generate chances, but for now it’s not his main mission.

Peyton Krebs

As the other key acquisition in the Jack Eichel trade, Krebs joined the Sabres as a potential future top-six centerman. Although he was drafted by Vegas, he’s done most of his pro hockey development with Buffalo last season. He joined the Sabres organization having played seven AHL games with Henderson and 13 with the Golden Knights. Over 48 games in Buffalo he posted seven goals and 22 points and showed an adept ability to thread passes to teammates and create scoring chances or set up goals. Like Cozens, Krebs was a first-round pick in 2019 but his road to the NHL was a bit more methodical, not to mention slowed by injuries, but his time to start shining is approaching. Something that will help Krebs get to the NHL and be a top-six or top-nine forward is the improvement in his defensive game. While his vision on the ice as well as his passing ability are outstanding, he struggled in his own end. When he was sent to the AHL at the conclusion of the NHL season, his play in there showed he’s not far off in general, but he put a lot of work in his play away from the puck and it helped him immensely. Building off that will help him in the competition for minutes in the lineup. With his offensive gifts already showing a lot of promise, he’ll have a huge opportunity to capitalize in competition with teammates.

DEFENSE

Rasmus Dahlin

It would feel wrong to say that Dahlin has been a bit beleaguered in his four NHL seasons, but there’s a lot of truth to it. He’s played for three head coaches, each with different systems and ideas for how Dahlin should play, and it’s hurt him, particularly early on in seasons. Last season started similarly as the player who went No. 1 in the 2018 NHL Draft seemed like he would never show up. But that changed in the second half of the year. Dahlin became a puck-rushing force, particularly in the offensive zone. Dahlin’s moments to pinch in were well-timed, his reads on plays were spot on, and his ability to finish chances improved as the season wound down. He had 13 goals and 40 assists when it was all said and done, and it seemed like the new energy surrounding the team manifested itself within his game. Ten of his goals came at even strength, as did 21 assists. On the power play which he was the quarterback on the top unit, he scored three goals with 18 assists and even had a shorthanded assist as well. He played the most minutes per game in his career (over 24:01) and was hands-down their No. 1 defenseman. These are key reasons to be excited about what’s to come this season, all he must do is not stumble out of the gate and play like that for a full season. It’s a big ask, but it’s the ask that’s always been made of him from the beginning.

Mattias Samuelsson

The one thing that kept the 6-foot-4, 226-pound rookie from being a Sabre all season was an injury sustained during a prospects challenge game before the start of training camp. That blocked shot kept him out of action for some time and meant he started the season in the AHL when he was cleared to play. It wasn’t long after that he was off to Buffalo where he instantly became a top pairing defender with Rasmus Dahlin and made Buffalo’s blue line that much better. Over 42 games, Samuelsson had 10 assists and averaged an even 20 minutes per game. While he played most his minutes with Casey Fitzgerald to start, his time with Dahlin is what has everyone in Buffalo excited about what’s to come. In 140 minutes of time at 5-on-5 with Dahlin, he posted a 54.6 percent CorsiFor and a 51.3 percent expected goals for. Even with all that, there was some bad luck as their PDO together was .967 (average is 1.000). Samuelsson also provides a physical element to the roster that’s severely lacking. He was third on the team with 100 hits. Dahlin was first with 121 but he played in 38 more games. The best is yet to come for Samuelsson, and he’ll be counted on to play top pairing minutes, likely with Dahlin. His throwback style with a modern twist is the exact kind of thing Buffalo has needed for a long time.

Henri Jokiharju

A lot had been asked of Jokiharju in his first couple seasons with Buffalo. He was originally Rasmus Dahlin’s partner and stayed there for a few seasons. The importance of that pairing playing most minutes and being tasked the toughest matchups began to show that perhaps that wasn’t the ideal role for the now 23-year-old Finn. Now that Mattias Samuelsson has assumed that role on the top pairing, Jokiharju has slid back to the second pair where, while the minutes are fewer, it’s allowed Jokiharju to settle in and take better advantage of the lesser matchups. What that really means is it’s a long-winded way of saying Jokiharju was fine but unspectacular. His numbers, both standard and advanced, don’t jump off the screen. He had three goals and 19 points in 60 games and his possession numbers were middle of the road both in terms of the Sabres and in general. He had some power play time and a bit more on the penalty kill, although it stands to reason with Owen Power’s full-time arrival, power play time will be scarce for Jokiharju from here on out. What will make or break him is how steady and consistent he can play. There were stretches last season where his play was a bit off and left fans frustrated. Saving him from top pairing minutes should do well to eliminate that from occurring and allow Buffalo to get the best from him.

Ilya Lyubushkin

True defensive-defensemen are a bit scarcer in the modern NHL, but when there’s a need for one on a team it’s always apparent. Therefore, one of the Sabres few free agent signings addressed that need for the blue line and it was former Coyote and Maple Leaf defender Ilya Lyubushkin that fit the bill. While Mattias Samuelsson provides a lot of that bite on the top pair, Lyubushkin will provide another option on a lower pairing. One thing that makes Lyubushkin stand out is his consistency. The player he was when he came up with Arizona is the same guy he is now. His shot suppression numbers were decent with Arizona considering how poorly they’ve played the past few seasons. In his short time with the Maple Leafs, those numbers naturally improved but his game held strong. He’s not a big time shot blocker nor is he overwhelmingly physical, but at 6-foot-2, 210 pounds he can fill the space and close the gaps with attention to detail. If there’s someone Lyubushkin seems ideal to line up next to it’s Owen Power. His defensive-minded play counters Power’s strong puck carrying ability and offensive play. That’s a spot he may have to compete with Jokiharju to lock down. Make no mistake though, Lyubushkin is a Sabre because he can handle himself very well in his own end of the ice, anything else he can add is gravy.

Craig Anderson

It seems like Craig Anderson just doesn’t want to quit – at 41-years old, he’ll be one of the oldest players in the league, much less in net. With the announcement that Mike Smith will likely miss the 2022-23 campaign, that leaves Anderson as the league’s only over-40 goaltender – and the next closest in age, Marc-Andre Fleury, will only be 38. It’s hard not to root for him to keep having fun, especially given the mentor status he’ll assume during the upcoming year.

Buffalo found itself scrambling when former up-and-comer Linus Ullmark left in free agency last summer, and they still haven’t quite recovered. That leaves them in a position where they need Anderson for as long as he’s happy to skate out and dress the part, even if his numbers during the 2021-22 season were far from exemplary. He remains one of the league’s most old-school holdouts from a technical standpoint, which becomes more and more apparent with each passing year; as the game speeds up and requires faster and smoother lateral work, he struggles to keep up. But despite the fact that his game clearly doesn’t seem suited for going the distance on a postseason run anymore, he continues to have one of the most consistent game styles out there. That’s an incredible asset for a Buffalo franchise that’s not necessarily trying to win a cup this year but is trying to ingrain good habits in the up-and-coming players they have on roster. Add in the guidance that Anderson can provide for the newly-acquired Eric Comrie and the stable reliability he offers for the team’s coaching staff as a backup, and there’s a lot to like about his continued presence in the Niagara region – even if he signifies yet another year of a seemingly-endless rebuild.

Projected starts: 35-40

Eric Comrie

It seems like Eric Comrie has been just a step away from regular league action for years now, but he’ll finally get his chance this season. With Malcolm Subban on the injured reserve list, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen coming off a lackluster year spent nearly entirely in the AHL, and Erik Portillo still developing at the University of Michigan, the door is wide open for Comrie to finally establish himself as a consistent NHL presence.

Comrie had a stellar coming-out year for Winnipeg this past season, posting his first career NHL shutout and boasting a .920 save percentage in all situations through 19 games. It seemed as if he finally took the technical precision he was so well known for during his prospect years and added a bit more confident from a decision-making standpoint. During some of his brief earlier showings at the NHL level, he struggled with keeping his movements fluid and minimal after allowing a tough goal. This past year, though, he managed to keep his game consistent through entire 60-minute showings, relying on smart technique and a lack of over-aggressive challenging to give himself an edge in a season where so many goaltenders were still re-establishing their own game baselines post-covid shutdowns. Now, though, he’ll have to replicate that success with what’s likely to be a much higher workload, behind a team that’s dealt with far less success than Winnipeg has seen in the last few years. Buffalo has struggled with not just structure to their games, but with consistency – particularly in how they manage their blue line. That means that although Comrie is going to be given more responsibility, he’ll be given less direction in how to handle it. Hopefully, he’ll be fine with Craig Anderson as a reliable mentor, but he wouldn’t be the first goaltender to see his confidence rattled by a scattered system offered up by the Sabres.

Projected starts: 50-55

Raising Arizona – Arizona Coyotes 2018-19 Season Preview

Robert Howard — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:34:09 +0000

Review/State of Play - Finishing out of the playoffs for the sixth straight season and third worst in the league with 70 points, netting another high draft pick. They entered 2017-18 expecting to be more competitive, but instead by seasons end were adding more pieces to a young group of talented prospects selecting center Barret Hayton fifth in this year’s Draft.

The team did finish with a 17-12-3 record as pieces started to fit together late in the season, providing reason for optimism for a developing franchise. They have now had a season under coach Rich Tocchet, establishing a fast paced system, coming out of the Penguins system, he should have the benefit of a team on the same page out of the gate this season.

Clayton Keller

Keller leads the youth movement - Management will be encouraged by a terrific rookie season from Clayton Keller leading the team in scoring with 65 points - finishing second behind Matt Barzal in rookie scoring. He was the clear leader on offence and a fixture on the power play leading the team with 20 points.

On the disappointing side of the prospect development saw Max Domi struggle through a difficult season. He was dealt in the off-season to the Montreal Canadiens for Alex Galchenyuk, whom GM Chayka sees as a center, a subject of much controversial debate in Montreal. Having already scored 30 in a young career, Galchenyuk is seen to address the Yotes inability to puck the puck in the net. He will be given a lot of opportunity to shine in a fresh start and prove he belongs in the middle

A blue-chip group of prospects in Lawson Crouse (21), Dylan Strome (21), Brendan Perlini (22), Christian Fischer (21), Nick Merkley (21) remain in development. They added more youth in a trade with Chicago for Vinnie Hinostroza.

Fischer had a solid rookie season firing 15 goals and more is expected as a sophomore. Perlini now has two seasons under his belt and came close to the 20-goal scorer they hope he can be with 17 in his sophomore season and 31 over two seasons. Strome appeared in 21 games last season with the Coyotes but also delivered 53 points in 50 games as an AHL rookie. He may be ready to contribute full time this season. Merkley also delivered 39 points in 38 AHL games in an injury shortened season. 6’4”, 220-pound Crouse could earn a spot on the fourth line. He appeared in 72 NHL games in 2016-17, but only 11 last season. His physical game might have him NHL ready, but power forwards of his size often take time to develop fully.

Development amongst that group will have a big impact on the coming season and how the lines shake out. Make no mistake it will be another year of growing for the forwards.

Defensive rock Ekman-Larsson signs for eight – the biggest off-season move that secures their backend and a key piece to future aspirations and a signal to the team and community that improving sooner rather than later is the plan.

The defense however, is reliant up on veterans, whom left some room for improvement last season, but the organization sees as a strength. 32-year-old Alex Goligoski had a mixed campaign producing 35 points, one less than the prior season. Jason Demers and Niklas Hjalmarsson were to provide responsible veteran support on the back end. Demers delivered a solid performance on the top pairing with Ekman Larsson but Hjarlmarsson struggled appearing in 48 games in an injury-marked season. The resigned him for two years and believe he can play a shut down role.

Jakob Chychrun missed time to injury to start the season and enters his third season after surprisingly making the team as an 18-year old. Injury played a factor last season but a clean bill of health to start and he will be counted on to provide 30 points after two seasons of 20. He has the potential to do more.

Antti Raanta was outstanding last season and is signed through 2020-21 at $4.25 million AAV. In his 47 starts he posted a 0.930 save percentage and 2.24 goals against, second place in the NHL for goaltenders playing more than 30 games in both categories. He was dominating in the second half, posting a 16-6-4 record, 1.84 GAA, and .942 save percentage in 27 games starting on Jan. 1^st. Injuries limited his appearances at the start of the season and a healthy season will see 60 or more starts. Sparkling numbers may be hard to repeat with a developing team in front of him Arizona signed veteran, and former starter, 29-year-old Darcy Kuemper as his back up for the next two years hoping to provide stability.

Outlook – Weak special teams were bolstered by the additions of Galchenyuk to help the power play and speedy Michael Grabner on the penalty kill. The Coyotes will struggle to make the playoffs and will be primarily looking to get a group ready to challenge in the following two to three seasons rather than immediately. The pieces are there, and they could surprise given their finish at the end of the season, but smart money is on forward progress and glory down the road.