William Carrier – McKeen's Hockey

MCKEEN’S 2024-25 NHL YEARBOOK – CAROLINA HURRICANES – Team Preview

Sat, 21 Sep 2024 20:00:50 +0000

_{PITTSBURGH, PA - MARCH 26: Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho (20) skates during the third period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Carolina Hurricanes on March 26, 2024, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire)}

After making the playoffs for the past five campaigns and reaching the Eastern Conference Finals twice, Carolina entered 2023-24 as potential contenders for the Cup. The regular season largely went as planned with the Hurricanes posting a 52-23-7 record on the strength of a balanced offence and a stellar defence -- Carolina led the league with a xGA/60 of just 2.65. To bolster the Hurricanes’ Cup chances, they acquired high-end forward Jake Guentzel from Pittsburgh and took a chance by acquiring the struggling Evgeny Kuznetsov from Washington. Kuznetsov ended up holding his own with Carolina, and Guentzel was his usual dominant self, but even that wasn’t enough. Carolina bested the Islanders in the first round but couldn’t overcome the Rangers in the second.

WHAT’S CHANGED? The Hurricanes were unable to sign Guentzel to a long-term deal, and ultimately cut their losses by trading his negotiating rights to Tampa Bay in exchange for a 2025 third-round selection before he became an unrestricted free agent. Kuznetsov then mutually agreed with Carolina to terminate his contract so he could play in the KHL, so both of Carolina’s additions during the 2023-24 campaign are gone. The Hurricanes also lost top-six forward Teuvo Teravainen as well as defencemen Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce, and Tony DeAngelo as unrestricted free agents. In an attempt to offset those blueline losses, Carolina inked free agents Shayne Gostisbehere and Sean Walker. Carolina also signed bottom-six forward William Carrier.

WHAT WOULD SUCCESS LOOK LIKE? After six years of being good, but not good enough, anything short of a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals would probably be seen as a disappointment. The Hurricanes certainly might accomplish that feat. Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas are in their respective primes while Seth Jarvis is fast becoming a star. If Pyotr Kochetkov builds off his strong 2023-24 campaign, and Frederik Andersen stays relatively healthy, Carolina will have a solid goaltending duo. Plus, Gostisbehere is a nice power-play specialist, making the Hurricanes even stronger in that regard.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Although Carolina has plenty of different strengths, it would be argued that sound defensive play has been the secret sauce to the Hurricanes’ dominance. Carolina has finished in the top five in xGA/60 in each of the past four campaigns and led the league in that category for each of the last two years. With that in mind, losing two of the squad’s top-four defencemen in Skjei and Pesce might hurt the team’s dynamics more than it initially seems. Gostisbehere is an offensive-minded blueliner and Walker is primarily a third-pairing guy, so neither of them are pure replacements for what Carolina lost. Another member of Carolina’s top-four blueline, Brent Burns, is also in danger of regressing at the age of 39. None of that would make the Hurricanes bad, but perhaps they won’t be quite as good as they have been in recent years.

TOP BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Then again, the loss of Skjei and Pesce coupled with the possible regression of Burns has created an opportunity for rookie Scott Morrow. The rookie blueliner was strong with UMass-Amherst last year, scoring six goals and 30 points in 37 contests. Morrow has the potential to be a great two-way defenceman, and he’s one of the Hurricanes’ best prospects.

FORWARD

Sebastian Aho

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	42	56	98	1.20

2023 was just another year at the office for the Hurricanes star forward. It was his most productive season in the NHL, recording a career-high 89 points and he maintained his consistent scoring pace with another 35+ goal season. He does everything for the team, thriving as a center who can handle the offence and the tough matchups on the top line and is an integral part of their aggressive penalty kill. His work on the power play is what stood out this year, recording a career-high 32 points with the man advantage, running the power play from the left wall and also playing the bumper position depending on the situation. His versatile approach to goal-scoring makes him a weapon in all situations, possessing a great shot with good speed to get open looks off the rush and finding sneaky ways to get himself open in front of the net. With Carolina always searching for a goal-scorer, Aho eventually has to be the guy to pick up the slack. He’s one of their best playmakers and doesn’t have the best shot, but he is the best at knowing what you need to do to score goals. On a team that loves to possess the puck, someone has to make it count for something and Aho is the best at it. It’s a part of his game that has yet to tail off and makes him the heartbeat of this Carolina team. Is this the season he surpasses 40 goals and flirts with 100 points?

Andrei Svechnikov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
71	24	38	62	0.87

Recovering from knee surgery, Svechnikov’s season didn’t start until late October, and it took him until mid-December to start getting back into form. After that, his season mirrored most of his NHL career. He was among the team leaders in shot volume and most offensive categories but didn’t score as many goals as fans or the team had hoped. Svechnikov looks like an unstoppable force at times, playing a power forward type game with deceptively good playmaking skills thrown in. The latter part of his game is always going to be unappreciated because he’s topped out as a 20-25 goal-guy instead of the 30+ guy most were hoping he would be. That and it’s easier for forgive the high number of penalties he takes when he’s more consistent with scoring goals rather than being a setup guy. His NHL track record isn’t bad, last year being one of his best with a 72-point pace, but the Hurricanes are hoping he can take the next step to become a superstar. Which is ultimately going to come down to if he can find the back of the net more often. He had the toolset to do it, the heavy wristshot combined with that powerful skating stride and playmaking skills should make him one of the more feared forwards in the NHL even if the results haven’t followed just yet. There is considerable upside but better to play it safe and draft for 70 games and 25 goals and 30 – 35 assists.

Seth Jarvis

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	40	38	78	0.98

Jarvis is the epitome of a Hurricanes forward in a lot of ways. He’s undersized, but strong as an ox. He’s a high-motor player who battles hard to get to the front of the net and creates a lot of offence from around the blue paint. Last year was the first time he saw a reward for it on the scoresheet with a 33-goal season and finding a permanent home in Carolina’s top six. The high-effort game takes a toll on his body and leads to some streaky production, but after three years in the league he’s starting to learn some of the tools to become a more consistent player. He still forechecks hard but doesn’t always go in at full speed for every loose puck, finding more creative ways to win battles and get himself open in front of the net instead. He can still pick a corner and be the lethal sniper off the rush but being a net-front menace has more of a reward in the Canes system. His breakout season filled a major void in Carolina’s forward corps, and he became one of the team’s cornerstones by the end of the year, playing on both special teams units by the end of the season. With still a relatively small NHL track record, Jarvis still has to prove if he can produce like this on a yearly basis, but he has established himself as a key part of Carolina’s future. He finished last year on a point per game pace and firing 14 goals in his last 18 games. Entering his fourth season he is capable of 40 goals and a point-per-game.

Martin Necas

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	31	37	68	0.83

Necas somewhat fell back to earth after a breakout season where it looked like he was on the path to stardom. A strong start was followed by a winter slump where he scored only five goals in 27 games through November and December. He began to return to form in mid-January after a brief stint on the IR, scoring at almost a point-per-game pace for three months before ending the season on a slow note that carried over into the playoffs. Finding linemates for him was an issue and the numbers game forced Necas off the top power play unit, so he didn’t have the same opportunities he did in 2022-23 when he was one of the few guys on the team who could produce offence. His talent is undeniable, but his preference for the one-man cycle game and tendency to make things happen on his own made him an awkward fit on most lines, although the Canes lack of a true second line pivot also contributed to that. Necas often had to play the one-man game because his linemates didn’t know what he was going to do, and the safer option was to just go to the net so he could do whatever he wanted high in the zone. Sometimes it worked, but he didn’t have enough players working with him last year. Even with his name being in trade rumors all summer, he’s slated to return to the Hurricanes for another year and should be back in a top six role with the Hurricanes losing a few forwards through free agency. Whether in Carolina or elsewhere he can produce 25 – 30 goals and 65 – 70 points with upside if he can find chemistry.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	16	22	38	0.50

At the start of the year, there were reasons to be optimistic about Kotkaniemi’s progression with Carolina. He began the season with 10 points in his first 10 games and was reliable as a pivot who could take advantage of playing with some of the team’s higher end skill guys like Martin Necas. Unfortunately, it was short lived as Kotkaniemi ended the season with only 27 points which included a three-month drought where he didn’t score a single goal. He went from centering the second line to playing regularly on the fourth line, even finding himself in the press box for a couple games. He is the negative side of the coin of a player with a ‘Jack of All Trades’ skillset, because he’s above average in most areas but not great at anything. The only exception being his heavy shot, which he needs a lot of time and space to release. One of the few skilled puck carriers on a forecheck-heavy team, Kotkaniemi’s skillset is needed but it comes back to him finding his confidence and the coaching staff trusting him again. Even when he was playing better, neither he nor his linemates could find the back of the net so it was hard for him to find any rhythm. With the roster currently loaded with middle-six players, Kotkaniemi needs to show some improvement to stand out from the pack. Now in his seventh season, and while young, a breakout is looking unlikely and should draft for around 15 goals and 30 – 40 points.

Jack Roslovic

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
76	18	19	37	0.49

Roslovic’s season was hampered by injuries, but he was trusted with some good linemates in both Columbus and New York, spending time on the Johnny Gaudreau line in Columbus and with Mika Zibanejad on the Rangers second line in the playoffs. His speed, lanky frame and occasional highlight reel play make him a desirable candidate for that role, but the results have been scattered over his career. Prone to both cold spells in goal-scoring and driving play. Last year being one of his stronger seasons in the play-driving department. As a pass-first player, it’s expected for his results to be more linemate driven, but Roslovic’s strength in the transition game gives him some quick-strike ability that every team can use. He’s an interesting fit in Carolina on a one-year ticket. His versatility will be nice, but it’s tough to say if his love for carrying the puck will fill a need or be an awkward fit in their forecheck-heavy system. There’s potential for him to be the center who can mesh with Necas’ skill, but his inconsistent play-driving could make the Canes pull the plug on that line before it has a chance to gel. He has skills they can use but could be short on linemates on a roster lacking top-end talent. He has only hit 20 goals once and risky to project at much more than that with an equal amount of assists.

Jordan Martinook

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	16	22	38	0.46

Best suited for a checking role, Martinook is usually the first one to get promoted to the top six whenever the Canes need a spark. He plays a straight-forward game with a lot of energy, so it’s easy to see why he’s been a favourite of Rod Brind’Amour since his arrival in Raleigh. His last two seasons have been his most productive, despite him being in his early 30’s. Although a career high of 34 points isn’t going to land you in a lot of record books. Point production is usually secondary when it comes to him, as Martinook is a key cog in their checking line and penalty kill. There’s more skill to his game than meets the eye, as Martinook has decent wheels and a deceptively good shot that makes him dangerous on breakaways. His knack for getting deflections on point shots also makes him a player you have to watch for sometimes. There isn’t much creativity in his game, but it’s not expected given his normal role. He’s the modern-day checking line forward who plays with a lot of tenacity but hasn’t lost the skill he had in juniors. Martinook finally earned a raise this off-season, signing a three-year deal after a couple years of team-friendly contracts with the Hurricanes. He will continue to be one of the team’s sparkplugs provided he stays healthy. Expect similar production.

William Carrier

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
64	12	17	29	0.45

Carrier wasn’t the most well-known member of the inaugural Vegas squad, but he was an underrated part of their core. He played a fourth line role but on a higher end in the 11–13-minute range, often used in their starting lineup to help set the tone. He plays super aggressive on the forecheck and brings more skill than you’d expect, surprisingly one of the Vegas leaders in shot and scoring chance setups per 60 minutes during his time there. Most of those are meat and potatoes plays, getting the puck back to the point and crashing the net, but that’s a welcome addition on the Hurricanes. So much so that they opted to sign him to a six-year deal. Carrier isn’t the player you expect to have under contract until he’s 35 years old, but in the immediate he provides help to a Carolina team that was looking to add size and physicality in the off-season. His love for crashing the net and setting up point shots should give his assist total a boost. A nice player to have, but definitely the contract was definitely a head-scratcher for someone who plays lower in the lineup, although he does fill a need with Jesper Fast’s future in jeopardy.

Jack Drury

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
79	11	23	34	0.43

In search of some form of reliability at the 2C spot, Jack Drury emerged as the guy in the playoffs. Spending most of the season in the bottom-six, Drury found his way as a regular NHLer and the challenge was finding some kind of niche. He hasn’t quite found his game offensively just yet, as his scoring touch isn’t there and he wastes controlled entries with perimeter shots off the rush. Where his game has come along is being a stabilizer and defensive presence alongside Martin Necas. If there was one thing you could count on with Drury, it’s that he could keep play out of the Hurricanes end and be a support valve to help keep possessions alive. He always knows where to be and was a good linemate to deter some of the erratic play of Necas and their defence that loves to pinch at every opportunity. The question is if you want more out of him if he's going to be your second line center. As of now, he’s an excellent fourth or third liner but it’s tough to say if he’ll be a guy who can step up if the Hurricanes need more scoring. He’s also part of a very crowded center corps with no clear number two behind Sebastian Aho. His reliability and potential to do more could give them to edge for that spot, should things break that way.

DEFENCE

Jaccob Slavin

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	7	32	39	0.48

A defensive stalwart with incredible endurance, Slavin might be the face of this era of Hurricanes hockey. Last year was his ninth season with the team and he will likely finish his career in Raleigh after signing an eight-year extension over the summer. How that contract ages is a conversation for another day, but he has held up better than most shutdown defencemen through his late 20’s, still posting excellent defensive numbers and remaining one of the league’s best at denying zone entries. Carolina’s quick, but conservative zone exit strategy has helped with some of the wear and tear, as he doesn’t take a lot of hits and is good at avoiding contact in general. Offence isn’t a big part of his game, although he did see an uptick in point production last season despite no power play time. The Hurricanes love of point shots and defencemen pinching make all of their blue liners a threat to get on the scoresheet in some way and Slavin is no different. He has some of the better puck skills among their defence corps, although it’s not something you see from him every game. This year will be a big test for him because he’s always been part of a great collective unit and now, he’s the centerpiece. It shouldn’t be that much of an adjustment since he was always the de facto top guy, but he doesn’t have the same rapport he did with the pieces around him and sometimes it takes time to get new roster additions, especially this many at the top of the lineup.

Brent Burns

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
82	8	30	38	0.46

Turning 40 years old in March, the only question with Burns is when Father Time will claim him like he does to most players once they reach the back end of their career. Burns has avoided hitting this wall thanks to his freak-like athleticism and training regimen, but you saw hints of it in the playoffs when the game appeared too fast for him. Quicker passing plays would avoid him, and he would be slower to react than usual. His regular season numbers are slightly more optimistic, as the Hurricanes were on the positive side of the shot, goal and scoring chance ledger with him on the ice, although getting deployed with the top line and Jaccob Slavin helps with that. His own game hasn’t changed much late in his career, he will fire everything at the net, and he can still be a force when jumping in from the point. He was also one of the team’s better blue liners at leading breakouts, both with relieving pressure and kickstarting the transition game, which is needed in the Hurricanes rigid system. With one year left on his deal, Carolina is hoping his body can hold up to at least hold the fort down in a top four role, as he doesn’t need to play the big minutes he used to command. He should at least see a reduction in minutes on the power play with more options brought in.

Shayne Gostisbehere

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
80	11	40	51	0.64

Betting on himself with a one-year deal in Detroit, the veteran defenceman earned himself a nice free agency payday thanks to a monster performance on the power play with 29 points. Returning to Carolina on a three-year deal, he fills a void on a blue line that lost both Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce in free agency, although he’s a different mold than both of those players. A pure power play specialist, Gostisbehere can handle the minutes of what they lost but probably not the assignments against top lines. How much they can shelter him will depend on how the rest of the defence plays, but they’re still going to try to get Ghost out in the offensive zone as much as possible. The Hurricanes foundation is built on a heavy cycle game and point shots, which Gostisbehere can take advantage of with how good he is at creating offence from up high. He’s also not a stranger to playing a simpler game in the defensive zone, even as a puck-mover. He had to do this in Detroit with their system, using the glass for most of his exits and is already familiar with what the Canes system is like. He is a welcome addition to both the Canes power play and five-on-five game, as he will get plenty of pucks thrown his way and his penchant for slipping past forwards for a better shot, will give Carolina a different dynamic high in the zone.

Dmitry Orlov

Predicted Stats
GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
78	6	26	32	0.41

The first season of Dmitry Orlov’s three-year deal was a bumpy ride. Blocked by Slavin and Skjei in the top four, Orlov had to make do with third-pair minutes for most of the year. In theory, he should have crushed these assignments, as he’s used to playing top-pair assignments on good teams. In practice, he struggled to find chemistry with lesser partners and didn’t find his groove until the middle of the year when he was teamed with Jalen Chatfield. The two were arguably the team’s best defence pair in the back half of the season and began playing top-pair minutes at even strength while the rest of the defence corps soaked up the power play time. This year, the training wheels are gone, and Orlov is one of the guys expected to slide up in the lineup to replace what they had in Skjei. Again, this transition shouldn’t be a problem for him in theory but at 33-years old he doesn’t have the same explosiveness as he did in his prime and was on the wrong end of some brutal puck-handling mistakes. Carolina is hoping year two is more of a smooth transition. The prior experience in the top four and chemistry with Chatfield should make the jump easier for him, though.

GOAL

Frederik Andersen

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
39	24	11	3	3	0.914	2.39

Pyotr Kochetkov

Predicted Stats
GP	W	L	OT	SO	SV%	GAA
43	27	13	4	4	0.908	2.49

The Carolina Hurricanes are presumably down to their last season with Frederik Andersen. Unless the now-34-year-old Andersen re-signs on another one or two-year deal with the team at the end of this upcoming campaign, this will be his farewell tour - and that makes this season particularly crucial for the Metropolitan Division franchise, since he's remained their go-to when healthy even after yet another lengthy absence from the lineup. Andersen missed almost the entirety of the 2023-24 season with a blood clot health scare, leaving the Hurricanes to split the net between fellow veteran Antti Raanta and up-and-comer Pyotr Kochetkov. Once he returned, though, Andersen was who the team turned to both down the back stretch and into the postseason. He looked good, but he'll be 35 by the time this year wraps up; it's clear that he's nearing the final few seasons of his NHL career, and Carolina will need to prove that the team's coaching staff feels just as confident relying on Kochetkov in their most crucial games moving into a new era.

Most of Kochetkov's poor performances last season looked simply like a young goaltender learning what it takes to hack it over the long haul in the big leagues, and a concussion forced him to miss a chunk of time in the middle of the year - far from what Hurricanes fans would hope to see after spending the last few seasons forced to sit through a never-ending laundry list of bumps and bruises for both Andersen and Raanta. But while Kochetkov's inexperience made itself known in a handful of games, his overall instincts looked sharp, and his technique looked fluid. His skating ability makes it tough for shooters to take advantage of any decision-making tweaks he still needs; so long as the Hurricanes give him a slightly longer leash to learn the ropes, they should be in good hands.

2024 NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: Vegas Golden Knights v. Dallas Stars

Jesse Marshall — Fri, 19 Apr 2024 21:42:57 +0000

DALLAS, TX - NOVEMBER 22: Vegas Golden Knights right wing Mark Stone (61) has words with Dallas Stars left wing Mason Marchment (27) (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Vegas Golden Knights v. Dallas Stars

Revenge is a dish best served cold, or in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Dallas comes into this series as the top seed in the West and one that looks to exact revenge on the team that removed it from last years conference finals. We get those same finals match-up now as a first-round series given Las Vegas’ status as a wild card team. The Golden Knights are, once again, a topic of discussion in the world of long-term injury reserve salary cap savings. Both Mark Stone and William Carrier, previously sidelined by injury, have been skating with the team in advance of this series. Each could return either before or within the first round, changing the makeup of the Golden Knights in a big way.

The season series belonged to Vegas, who swept all three and needed overtime in two to complete the task. That said, in many ways, things have changed for Dallas, too. The addition of Chris Tanev made an already strong defensive unit even stronger. The top pairing of Thomas Harley and Miro Heiskanen is must-watch hockey featuring two of the most mobile, puck-friendly defensemen in the league. Perhaps the biggest change for Dallas is in goal and they didn’t have to adjust personnel to get it. Looking at goals saved above expected among goalies with at least 500 minutes of performance at even-strength this season, Jake Oettinger ranks 38^th. That doesn’t sound particularly great, but when you hone in on the last few weeks of the regular season, he’s starting to look like a real problem for the opposing team in goal. Assuming he’d have maintained a .913 save percentage for the duration of the year, he’d be significantly higher in those standings. Whether or not that run can continue will be a huge part of this series.

This series has a big feeling for the Stars. They made an aggressive swing at the deadline to bring in a defensive stalwart on the blueline. They are a top five team in goal scoring, zone entries, and finishing. If they can clear the hurdle of a bitter playoff rival laden with playoff experience in the first round, you must feel like that could be the necessary win to propel them to another Stanley Cup Final. From the Vegas perspective, the pieces are once again aligning at the right time and two capable goaltenders sit ready to play in any circumstance. I expect this series to be a long, arduous affair rife with unpleasantries from the onset. It isn’t just the return of Stone and Carrier for Vegas, they also went out at the deadline and bulked up with the likes of Noah Hanifin and Tomas Hertl.

KEY MATCHUPS

Jack Eichel vs. Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley

These defensemen have an ability to mute the Golden Knights top offensive talents. Eichel’s line is talented and can score lightning fast, but they only control 52% of the expected goals at even-strength. For a frame of reference, Heiskanen and Harley are controlling 61% of the expected goals at even-strength. Their ability to jump into the play or take over a breakout and gain the zone themselves tests the best centers in the league to be up to the task of chasing them down and marking them. Eichel’s best bet to neutralizing these threats is to force them to play defense as much as possible. The battle between the Stars top pairing and whoever they’re on the ice against for Vegas will be must-watch television.

Peter DeBoer vs. Bruce Cassidy

This is a situation where I’m really looking forward to the coaching match-up. Dallas has a strong setup in both their offensive zone approach and their power-play structure that create fits for opposing teams. Add in the fact that DeBoer has a good familiarity with much of the Vegas cast as he was coach there through 2022. I wonder if we see Vegas attempt to sit back and clog up the middle at all to slow down the Dallas breakout. The Stars are usually bolstered by one of their puck-moving defensemen assisting in the effort of gaining the zone. Given that Vegas was 22^nd in zone entry defense, there may be some manipulating on the part of Cassidy to give his team a little more support against a heavy and relentless Dallas attack. I also wonder what Cassidy will do to limit the damage done through Roope Hintz on the power-play as Vegas could be vulnerable to him walking the puck off of the wall for scoring chances.

Matt Duchene vs. Tomas Hertl

Each of these centers are key additions for their respective teams and I expect we’ll see a lot of them against each other in this series. Duchene has been a critical piece to the Stars improved depth. His 65-point campaign put him back on the map as a verifiable offensive threat. Meanwhile, Hertl scored four points in five games to cap off his regular season as he returned to the lineup for the Golden Knights. Both of these players expect to have a hand in this series, and both have been through extended playoff runs.

X-FACTOR

Dallas Stars: Wyatt Johnston was already a problem for opponents on the Stars third line. Add Logan Stankoven to the mix and you have a third line that controls over 63% of the expected goals at even-strength. They can do that against other teams’ top lines or third lines. They have no preference in their dominance. This line will pose a significant problem for Vegas in even-strength situations. I will be particularly interested to see which direction Bruce Cassidy goes with regard to defending this unit.

Vegas Golden Knights: The potential for Mark Stone to appear in this series is a significant development regardless of how long he’s been out. Stone provides a significant benefit both offensively and defensively. In last year’s meeting between these teams, he was a force to be reckoned with and created massive problems for the Stars in all three zones. Although this Stars team is deeper and seemingly more capable of dealing with that addition, it creates a trickle-down effect through the lineup that makes Vegas a significantly more difficult team to deal with.

FANTASY PLAYERS TO TARGET

I fully expect Roope Hintz and his speed to present problems for the Golden Knights at even-strength and on the power-play. I think Hintz ends up with a lot of good looks in this series and I have to lean on his power-play presence again here as I think he poses a threat to the Golden Knights penalty kill from the half wall. From a depth perspective, I have to hearken back to Johnston/Stankoven. The Stars third line has been a difficult thing to handle, and I expect a lot of depth scoring to be of major impact in this series. Johnston especially looks to build off of his special sophomore season with an encore in the playoffs.

Jonathan Marchessault scored a lot of points this year. With Vegas getting healthy, I think he’s bound to score a lot more. This shifty winger is going to give the Dallas defense fits with his ability to quickly separate and find open space. I also want to give a nod to Tomas Hertl here. Lost in some of the other returns is him slowly finding his legs. He knows how to perform in the post-season and I expect he’ll have some extra pep in his step for this series, especially in those tougher areas of the ice. Given the situation with Stone’s injury and the uncertainty about his return, I’d keep a close eye on him as well. A staunch performer against Dallas historically, Stone is worth a flier even if he misses the first game.

PREDICTION

I like Dallas in a seven-game war here. I think they exercise some demons and clear a huge hurdle early on that battle-tests them for the rest of the post-season. Jake Oettinger has stabilized in goal, and that Dallas blueline is rich with threats that will keep the Golden Knights forwards busy with defensive responsibilities. Add in a little special teams advantage for Dallas and I like them to clear this round, albeit in an extremely close fashion.

MCKEEN’S 2023-24 NHL YEARBOOK – VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Team Preview – Player Profiles

Tue, 10 Oct 2023 14:45:40 +0000

Review: In the sixth season in franchise history, the Vegas Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup, going 51-22-9 and finishing with the best record in the Western Conference during the regular season. The Golden Knights ranked 14^th with 3.32 goals per game, and ranked 11^th with 2.79 goals against per game. They were a mediocre possession team, controlling 49.0% of score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts and 51.7% of expected goals, so that did not profile as a dominant Cup contender, but they also did this with five different goaltenders starting games for them during the season. It may not have necessarily been a typical path to a championship, but banners hang forever.

What’s Changed? Not surprisingly, the Stanley Cup champions did not make a lot of changes in the offseason. They did trade reliable winger Reilly Smith to Pittsburgh and let Phil Kessel hit the open market as a free agent. Center Teddy Blueger and goaltender Jonathan Quick signed as free agents with the Canucks and Rangers, respectively. The biggest move of the summer for Vegas was re-signing Ivan Barbashev, who played such a crucial role on Vegas’ top line in the playoffs, so keeping him around ensures that the Vegas heads into this season with a lot of the same championship pieces in place.

What would success look like? Expecting a repeat is asking a lot, but that is naturally going to be the expectation for Vegas after winning in 2022-2023. They return much of that championship team and while back-to-back Stanley Cups is a tall order, a title has to be the standard. Now, if they lose in the Western Conference Final, it is hardly going to be a disaster, but the Golden Knights have reached the final four in four of their six seasons, so that becomes more of a baseline expectation, which sounds preposterous but that is what follows this level of achievement.

What could go wrong? The Golden Knights managed to win the Stanley Cup with a myriad of goaltenders last season, so they might be able to survive an off season between the pipes. The bigger concern may be the health of captain Mark Stone, who has played in a total of 80 games over the past two seasons. He still plays well when healthy, but if Stone misses a bunch of time, that could cause problems for Vegas. Because the Golden Knights tend to have a top-heavy roster, the health of their stars is of major importance. It might be that way to some degree for every team, but especially teams that have invested more among their top players.

Top Breakout Candidate: On a veteran-laden team, there are not a lot of young players in prominent roles, so the best breakout candidate in Vegas is probably a goaltender. Adin Hill was excellent in the playoffs, posting a .932 save percentage in 16 appearances, but the 27-year-old netminder played a modest career high of 27 games during the regular season. He should see more action this season and that alone will give Hill a chance to have the best season of his career. If it’s not Hill, then Logan Thompson is a viable option, too. Thompson has a .915 save percentage in 57 career games and was cruising as Vegas’ starter last season before a lower-body injury ended his season.

Forwards

Jack Eichel

Eichel just kept getting better and better as the 2022-23 season went on, culminating in a dominant Stanley Cup run that saw him grab the game by the scruff of the neck and carry Las Vegas to victory on more than one occasion. Eichel showcased a nearly magnetic ability to keep the puck on his stick through opponent stick checks and his own physics-defying dangles that enabled him to create offense on a consistent basis for Vegas. Eichel lead all Vegas forwards in zone entries per hour of even-strength hockey by a comfortable margin and was in the 99^th percentile for zone entries among NHL forwards per the All Three Zones project. Eichel didn’t waste these zone entries, he was in the 98^th percentile for rush shots taken among NHL forwards last year as well. In the postseason, Eichel led the Golden Knights in both shot-attempt generation and in the creation of quality scoring chances. Eichel will continue to serve a top line role for the Knights where his vision and creativity allow him to serve up scoring opportunities for his teammates in addition to the rush chances we mentioned. Eichel finished the playoff run with the highest assist total (20) of any player in the league. With his health issues behind him, expect a very good chance at a repeat performance from Eichel.

Jonathan Marchessault

Marchessault, the Golden Knights’ Conn Smythe winner, had a consistent and strong offensive season that culminated in a 13-goal campaign that included some huge goals in critical moments of time. The most tenured member of the Golden Knights and a member of the inaugural version of the team, Marchessault’s ability to skate the puck out of danger was the foundational role in his performance. Marchessault was a menace offensively at both even-strength and on the power-play. His quick acceleration, puck handling, and knack for finding open space made him a difficult player for opposing defenders to mark. Marchessault’s even-strength offensive performance was good for the 90^th percentile among NHL forwards. He played a huge role as a conduit for assisting in getting the puck to safe areas and out of the defensive zone as evidenced by landing in the 98^th percentile for forward zone exits as tracked by All Three Zones. Marchessault had the highest expected goal share of any Knights forward in the Cup run at just over 56 percent. Whether it involved finishing plays or making high-danger passes, Marchessault was heavily involved in the Knight’s offense and is expected to step right back into his role on the top line next season.

Mark Stone

Mark Stone is one of the best two-way hockey players in the game and one of the most resilient. Stone, fresh off two back surgeries inside of one year, somehow managed to play a full slate of games in the post-season despite having the most recent of those surgeries in January of 2023. With 24 points in 22 playoff games, it was hard to believe he’d returned from surgery for game one of the post-season. Stone’s defensive performances have been the bedrock of the Golden Knights over the last few seasons and that was no different this season. When Stone is on the ice, scoring chances just do not happen in front of the Golden Knights net. He is noticeably low in the zone, actively looking to engage with any opposing forward looking to garner a chance from a high-danger area. For evidence of his participation defensively, Stone was in the 99^th percentile of forward zone exits per the All Three Zones project. Stone does work in being a conduit from defense to offense and creating scoring chances himself. He is a big body that is difficult to move and possesses great vision. Stone’s best work is on the cycle and in the battle areas of the ice, but his offensive toolbox is deceivingly deep, and his shot is both powerful and accurate.

Chandler Stephenson

Stephenson is coming off a year of career bests in points for the regular season (65) and the playoffs (20). Stephenson’s passing is the cornerstone of his game and undoubtedly his best offensive attribute. As a result of this skill and his ability to put the puck on the stick of teammates in a scoring position, he had more power-play time than any other Golden Knights’ forward last year. Stephenson found the back of the net 10 times in 22 playoff games during the Cup run, scoring some absolutely pivotal goals en route to capturing his second Stanley Cup ring. Opportunities exist for Stephenson to put the puck on the net, but that’s nitpicking given his overall offensive impacts have been fine. Stephenson drew some difficult deployments last season and still found success in them. He routinely went against some of the best forwards in the league and had the highest number of defensive zone faceoff starts of any forward on the Golden Knights roster. Overall, Stephenson plays a critical role in his team’s ability to work the puck through traffic.

William Karlsson

Turns out, the purported demise of William Karlsson was greatly exaggerated. After a career-low 35 points in the 2021-22 season, it appeared Karlsson was on a downward trajectory of slumpy-ness that was putting into question what the best fashion to deploy him was moving forward for Las Vegas head coach Bruce Cassidy. The result was a 53-point campaign for Karlsson that was followed up by an additional 17 points in 22 playoff games on the way to the Stanley Cup. Karlsson’s forechecking became a critical part of the cog that moved the Golden Knights forward. It was infectious and momentum stealing in nature. Karlsson had the highest number of recovered dump-ins per hour of even-strength ice time, a testament to his ability to quickly press the play and be a nuisance to his opponents. Additionally, Karlsson was in the 88^th percentile for passes to a high-danger area per the All Three Zones project. Karlsson had positive impacts to both the power-play and penalty-killing units for the Knights this year. His utility in how he can be deployed truly makes him a coach’s dream. While his finishing has still struggled in recent years, the boosts he provides in other areas, with and without the puck, are a major benefit to the overall structure of the team.

Ivan Barbashev

Barbashev arrived in Vegas via St. Louis in a trade that ultimately played a critical role in the Golden Knights winning a Stanley Cup. Barbashev, whose previous playoff experience had garnered him a total of nine points in 50 games for the St. Louis Blues, found his name all over the scoresheet for the Golden Knights championship push. When it was all said and done, he’d registered seven goals and 11 assists for 18 points in 22 playoff games, undoubtedly his best post-season performance to-date. Barbashev has traditionally put up forgettable if not sometimes detrimental results defensively, but his offensive outputs have always masked that, and he often does a lot of thankless work in getting the puck on the stick of his teammates. Barbashev had the second highest expected-goal share on the Knights for the 2022-23 post-season, a testament to his ability to aid in controlling the play. Expected to fulfill top line duties this season, the question is whether Barbashev’s offensive run in the playoffs was a mirage or a new standard of expectation for his game moving forward. He’ll certainly be in an environment that will allow him to continue to focus on supporting offensive production. In any case, the Knights have a proven playoff performer here that can fill in anywhere within the top six forward group.

Brett Howden

Howden is a traditional defense-first forward that makes mostly indirect offensive contributions but can be relied upon for a consistent, above-the-line performance defensively on a nightly basis. Minimally impactful outside of an even-strength deployment. In fact, Howden accumulated a total of 41 minutes of special teams play in his 54 total games last season, all of it on the penalty-kill. This year could present the opportunity for him to step into a top six role. From a microdata perspective, there is some evidence from the All Three Zones project to support his time there despite his overall poor outputs offensively. For instance, in games tracked last season, Howden ranked in the top 10 percent of the league’s forwards in shot assists in the offensive zone and shots taken off of passes from a high danger area. Howden has never eclipsed 10 goals in a season or more than 24 points, but the path to doing so seems fairly easy if he can stay in the lineup. Ultimately, Howden’s best work is in maintaining possession in difficult areas of the ice and being a strong defensive presence. Fresh off of a new, two-year contract worth a total of $3.8 million dollars, Howden will be looked at to provide a spark and potentially a few more points than he has previously.

Michael Amadio

Amadio is a former waiver pickup that earned a new contract with the Golden Knights and showed the rest of the league why they trusted him with that deal as this season wore on. Amadio set highs in every bucket and put down 10 points in 16 playoff games. Briefly scratched in the post-season during a scoring drought, Amadio returned to the lineup and finished out the run on a positive note. Amadio’s defensive performance has always been strong, but he’s gone from being slotted as a specialist in that bucket to having much more to provide offensively, especially from a goal-scoring department. Amadio both gets to scoring areas himself and sets up teammates with an increasing level of effectiveness. As a result of this offensive boost, his overall Wins Above Replacment total fell in the 79^th percentile of NHL forwards per JFresh Hockey’s data. Amadio was third on the Knights among forwards in primary shot assists per hour at even-strength. Amadio was deployed in a fashion that gives you the sense he may be in line for more ice time and responsibility this season given that he has provided a moderate boost to the Golden Knights offense and defense over the last two seasons.

William Carrier

Carrier had never scored double-digit goals prior to the 2021-22 season but ended last year with a total of 16 goals in 56 games played. He contributed six points in 18 games to the Stanley Cup win. Carrier’s big body and strong style of skating made him an extremely difficult player to handle in the Vegas system. Carrier had the best expected-goal share of any Golden Knights forward with at least 500 minutes played at even-strength with over 56-percent of the quality scoring chances going his way. Per the All Three Zones project, Carrier was in the 90^th percentile among NHL forwards with regard to scoring chance generation and in the 91^st percentile regarding his ability to generate shots off of the rush. For as good as Carrier’s offense was this year, his defense kept up the same pace. While he isn’t a special team’s player for the Golden Knights, his ability to press the play forward, contribute to offense, and be an impactful defensive player make him a forward that the defensive staff trusts to deploy in a variety of fashions. Last year was an anomalous result to his finishing ability, but if he can continue to score goals in the double digits, it will be a huge boost to the depth scoring for the Golden Knights.

Defense

Alex Pietrangelo

Alex Pietrangelo put in a dominant offensive season for the Golden Knights en route to his second Stanley Cup. Pietrangelo hit a high-water mark of 54 points in 2021-22, which tied his career best that he established in 2017-18 with St. Louis. He followed the regular season up with a playoff performance that saw him register 10 points in 21 playoff games and finish the run with the highest expected goals for rate among any Golden Knights defender in the post-season. Pietrangelo is still among the best defensemen in the league at confidently skating the puck out of the defensive zone and pressing in the offensive zone to generate additional chances and shooting opportunities. He creates offense against the other team’s best players and takes some of the most difficult assignments the Knights defensive unit has to offer. Per the All Three Zones project, he was in the 89^th percentile of league defensemen with regards to his ability to generate exits out of the defensive zone. Pietrangelo is not a strong defensive player but is not the liability defensively of some of his offensively-minded counterparts across the league. Overall, Pietrangelo will continue to take tough minutes for Las Vegas and translate them into offense. He will take minutes at even-strength, power-play, and on the penalty kill, truly making him a player that can be deployed in any fashion and the leader of the Knights defensive unit.

Shea Theodore

Theodore was one of the league’s most dangerous offensive defensemen last year and the only member of the Golden Knights blueline who out-paced Alex Pietrangelo with regard to zone exits last season. With Theodore, you know what you will get: a defenseman that joins the rush, acts as a fourth forward, pinches offensively, and takes risks all over the ice surface. The proof is in the pudding as he had 41 points in 55 regular season games with an encore performance of 13 points in 21 playoff games. Theodore’s offensive impact this season was in the 97^th percentile of NHL defensemen per JFresh Hockey. The All Three Zones project had him in the 93^rd percentile for shot contributions and rush offense. With Theodore, the defensive impact is where the issues arise. Theodore is often simply non-existent for transition defense given his role as an offensive defenseman. Within the zone, he’s best served in his ability to find his way out and provide the offense with a boost. Despite his offensive skillsets, he trailed his peers on the team in power-play contributions to shot and chance generation. Expect Theodore to continue to push the limit offensively and focus on the contributions to transition offense and creating chances off of the rush.

Alec Martinez

Martinez is a more defensive-minded defenseman who takes difficult deployments for the Golden Knights and settles them down. Martinez saw his defense and its on-ice impacts grow by leaps this season. When the regular season finished, he had the 2^nd highest expected-goal share of any defenseman on the team. Martinez’ 244 blocked shots lead the rest of the NHL’s defensemen by a significant margin. His blocked shot rate in 2012-22 was the highest of his entire career. Martinez played a large role in the Golden Knights penalty-kill and was a reliable presence in that environment. He doesn’t handle the puck a lot, but when he does, it’s with confidence and success. Martinez posted his lowest number of giveaways and highest number of takeaways since the 2018-19 season. Martinez seemed to thrive in the defensive zone but had a larger number of struggles in transition. With regard to his ability to mitigate zone entries with possession, he was in the 26^th percentile of NHL defensemen. Expect Martinez to continue to make the most of difficult defensive situations and take on a larger share of even-strength ice time this season. Martinez should continue to act as Pietrangelo’s safety on the top defensive pairing for the Golden Knights.

Brayden McNabb

Brayden McNabb was an underrated, stay-at-home style defenseman who gained bigger notoriety this year on a national stage due to his repeatedly solid performances in the spotlight of the playoffs. McNabb is physical, protects his own zone extremely well, and is the perfect balance for an offensive-minded partner like Shea Theodore. McNabb is very limited in his ability to handle the puck but due to his partner that hasn’t needed to be his focus. Per the All Three Zones project, McNabb had the highest rate of zone entry denials from opposing forwards and that is certainly where he is at his best. He keeps a strong, aggressive gap at the defensive blueline and is physical in his approach. His long reach enables him to force forwards to make uncomfortable decisions. All Three Zones data had him in the 92^nd percentile among NHL defensemen regarding his ability to stifle scoring chances from zone entries. His limited mobility hurt him more on the penalty kill where he has a larger area of ice to cover and more loose puck races to engage in. Overall, the Golden Knights will once again look to McNabb to be a quiet, stabilizing presence within their top four defensive unit.

Goaltending

Logan Thompson

Perhaps no one has been a more pleasant surprise than the undrafted Logan Thompson of the Vegas Golden Knights, who went from being an overager in the WHL to a year of college hockey up in Canada to a minor league-only deal – and finally to the NHL, where just three years after first getting his chance with the Golden Knights, the unlikely team hero found himself with his name on the Stanley Cup.

Thompson was one of the too-many goaltenders that Vegas saw suffer injuries last season, so he’ll need to prove he can stay healthy this upcoming season. But he boasts a lot to love about his game; he’s taken a long-standing willingness to do anything to stop the puck and cleaned up his game reads as he’s gone along, sharpening his positioning so he no longer needs to course-correct as frequently as he used to. Combined with a more conservative base position than fellow former WHL-er Adin Hill, that makes Thompson the goaltender in Sin City who’s less likely to elevate blood pressures and allow open holes. His instincts aren’t quite as top-tier as Hill’s, which makes for a nice tandem of goaltenders that each offer unique strengths in the Vegas net. But ultimately, the affordability of Thompson’s deal with the team alongside Hill’s make it hard not to marvel at just how lucky the team got with their pairing.

Projected starts: 40-45

Adin Hill

The Vegas Golden Knights didn’t exactly see goaltender Adin Hill put up the kind of wunderkind numbers one might have hoped for from a relatively young reclamation project, especially one moving from a pair of rebuilding teams to a playoff contender. But while Hill wasn’t exactly a Vezina candidate during his first year in Vegas, he was exactly what the team needed him to be – just better than league average, and able to avoid any meltdowns statistically en route to the team’s alarmingly fast championship win. In fact, Hill – who doesn’t always play the most technically sound game, but can make acrobatic saves look easy and snag pucks that smaller-statured goaltenders only dream of – managed to put up a clutch postseason performance that helped his team secure their win; he might not have been a Vasilevskiy or a Shesterkin during the year, but he was certainly good enough to get it done when he needed to most.

Hill’s reliance on lightning-fast reflexes and his above-average agility levels, combined with his impressive size and reach, can be both a blessing when he snags last-second pucks and a curse when he does too much and opens up holes that he doesn’t need. But he proved last season that when given more stability up front, he’s got the ability to be consistent enough to rely upon as a starter. And for Vegas, who have him signed to a team-friendly deal that doesn’t require too much commitment on their end, that’s more than good enough.

Projected starts: 35-40

STANLEY CUP FINAL: VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS FLORIDA PANTHERS – Goaltending key in a tightly contested series

Scott Cullen — Wed, 31 May 2023 17:14:40 +0000

SUNRISE, FL - MARCH 07: Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill (33) eyes Florida Panthers center Carter Verhaeghe (23) as he attacks with he puck during the game between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers on Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at FLA Live Arena in Sunrise, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

The Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers meet in what may be, by temperature, the hottest Stanley Cup Final in history. Vegas finished the regular season with 111 points, tops in the Western Conference. The Golden Knights have advanced to the Final round of the postseason tournament after defeating the Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, and Winnipeg Jets.

It has been a decidedly different path to the Final for the Florida Panthers, who snuck into the postseason with 92 points, the fewest of any team to qualify for the playoffs.

The Panthers eliminated the Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Carolina Hurricanes – the first, fourth, and second-place teams in the league, respectively, during the regular season – on the way to this matchup with the fifth-place Golden Knights.

If Florida is going to win, there will be no doubt that they have earned it, going through such a daunting path.

Forwards

Jack Eichel’s first playoff appearance has been a long time coming, but he is making the most of it. Eichel has 18 points in 17 games to lead the Golden Knights and has formed an outstanding line with Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault. The trio has controlled 56.2% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 12-4 during five-on-five play.

Marchessault has nine goals and 17 points, leading the Golden Knights with 62 shots on goal in 17 playoff contests. Barbashev, a pending free agent, is raising his offseason price tag with every game, contributing 15 points and playing a hard game, delivering 51 hits.

Part of what has made the Golden Knights so dangerous in the playoffs is their outstanding depth. Beyond the top line, captain Mark Stone has 15 points and Chandler Stephenson has 14. They skate on a line with Brett Howden, who has six points to go along with 51 hits.

William Karlsson centers the third line for Vegas and, in addition to fulfilling a checking role, also leads the Golden Knights with 10 goals in the playoffs. Reilly Smith chipped in 11 points and that pair of original Golden Knights have been joined by Michael Amadio, who has contributed seven points in 11 playoff games.

Vegas’ fourth line of William Carrier, Nicolas Roy, and Keegan Kolesar can hold their own and bring a physical presence. The Golden Knights have such strong depth that Teddy Blueger and Phil Kessel have been reduced to being part-time players, sitting for more games than they have dressed for in the playoffs.

Coming off his second consecutive 100-point season, Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk was already a star, but he has taken his game to a new level for the Panthers in the playoffs, leading the team with nine goals, 21 points, and four game-winning goals in 16 playoff games. He has been the proverbial straw that stirs the drink for the Panthers.

Tkachuk has mostly been skating on a line with Sam Bennett and Nick Cousins. Tkachuk and Bennett are not afraid to turn the game into a street fight, playing with the hard physical edge that is expected in playoff hockey.

Aleksander Barkov was the Panthers’ leader before Tkachuk arrived and has not been a dominant performer in the playoffs. He has 14 points and his line with Carter Verhaeghe and Anthony Duclair has outscored opponents 8-4 during five-on-five play, but that trio has also managed just 43.2% of expected goals, so there is room for improvement. Verhaeghe ranks second on the Panthers with 15 playoff points, while Duclair has contributed nine points.

Sam Reinhart is over-qualified as a third-line player, but he helps to diversify the Panthers’ attack, skating with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen. Reinhart ranks second among the Panthers with seven goals in the playoffs.

While forward depth is a clear strength for the Golden Knights, it is a notable weakness for the Panthers. Lundell and Luostarinen have three goals between them and fourth line contributors Eric Staal, Colin White, and either Ryan Lomberg or Zac Dalpe has combined for three goals. That is not a lot of production out of the lower half of the forward depth chart.

If the Panthers are going to compete in this series, they will likely need more contributions further down the lineup because it is asking a lot for Tkachuk to continue carrying the offense to the degree that he has so far in the postseason.

Defense

While all three of Vegas’ defense pairings are outscoring the opposition, only the duo of Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore is also driving play, controlling 54.5% of expected goals with Vegas outscoring opponents 11-8 with McNabb and Theodore on the ice during five-on-five play. Theodore has seven points in 16 playoff games, which is behind his regular-season pace of 41 points in 55 games.

Alex Pietrangelo leads Golden Knights defensemen with nine points in the postseason, and the Golden Knights are outscoring opponents 16-7 with Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez on the ice, despite managing 46.4% of expected goals, during five-on-five play.

Similarly, Vegas has outscored opponents 12-4 with the third pair of Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud on the ice during five-on-five play, despite managing 45.9% of expected goals. They do tend to play quite a bit to be considered the third pairing, as Hague and Whitecloud have seen the most five-on-five action of any Golden Knights defense tandem in the playoffs.

Florida’s defense is led by Brandon Montour, who has scored six goals in the playoffs, and leads the Panthers with 59 shots on goal. However, he has been paired with Marc Staal and the Panthers have been outscored 10-7 while getting just 41.2% of expected goals during five-on-five play with that duo on the ice. That could be a concern when facing a Vegas team with a lot of forwards capable of taking advantage against suspect defense.

The Panthers are outscoring opponents 10-5 with Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling on the ice even though they have generated 46.1% of expected goals at five-on-five. Montour, Forsling, and Ekblad are all averaging more than 24 minutes of ice time per game in the playoffs, so Florida does tend to lean on their top defenders.

Florida’s third pairing of Radko Gudas and Josh Mahura does not play as much, but they have been relatively effective. The Panthers have pulled nearly 55.0% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 5-4 with Gudas and Mahura on the ice.

Florida’s defensive track record in the playoffs has been subpar. They have allowed 33.3 shots against per 60 minutes in all situations, which is the second highest among all playoff teams. To be fair, Vegas has allowed 31.4 shots against per 60 minutes, which is fourth highest, so neither team has been in shutdown mode on the path to the Final. Of course, Florida has a secret weapon of sorts when the defense has faltered.

Goaltending

After playing at a below average level for three of the past four seasons, and not even starting the playoffs as the Panthers’ No.1 goaltender, Sergei Bobrovsky heads into the Cup Final as the odds-on favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy. In 14 playoff games, Bobrovsky has a .935 save percentage and leads all goaltenders with 19.45 Goals Saved Above Expected. He is a two-time Vezina Trophy winner, so it’s not like this performance is completely out of nowhere, but there has not been a lot in recent seasons to suggest that this level of play was still possible. Can he keep it up for one more round?

If Bobrovsky is an unlikely goalie to backstop a team to the Stanley Cup, what would that say about Vegas’ Adin Hill? The goaltending carousel has been turning all season for the Golden Knights, with injuries forcing the team to start five different goaltenders after presumed No. 1 Robin Lehner was deemed out for the season. In the playoffs Laurent Brossoit started for Vegas, but Hill has stepped in and delivered high quality performance, posting a .937 save percentage with 10.78 Goals Saved Above Expected in 11 games.

The team that gets the better goaltending should have an edge in the series. The challenge is figuring out which one of these surprising goaltending stories will continue.

Special Teams

Vegas’ power play has been a problem area for the entire playoffs and their 4.75 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play is the worst among teams that advanced beyond the first round. The Golden Knights have 10 power play goals in 17 playoff games, with Eichel and Stone both accounting for three.

With 9.30 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four action, Florida’s power play has been a little more dangerous, tallying 12 goals in 16 playoff games, led by Tkachuk with four and Reinhart with three.

This power play edge may not fully materialize for Florida, however, because Vegas has been very disciplined in its approach, spending 4:22 per game shorthanded, compared to 5:29 per game for the Panthers.

It is a good thing that Vegas does not take many penalties, because they have been utterly helpless when trying to kill them, allowing the highest rate of shot attempts, shots, and expected goals against during four-on-five play in the postseason. They get bailed out by goaltending from time to time, but if the Golden Knights take penalties, that would just be asking for trouble.

Florida’s penalty killing has not been terribly effective either, allowing higher than average rates of shot attempts, shots, and expected goals against during four-on-five play. This could be an area of vulnerability for Florida, but only if Vegas can somehow turn their power play into a viable threat.

Conclusion

Vegas has been the more effective team during five-on-five play, but neither team has controlled play with real authority. Both the Panthers and Golden Knights have reached this point thanks in large part to outstanding goaltending and that puts a lot of pressure on Bobrovsky and Hill going into the Final. In a tightly contested series, Vegas’ superior depth gives them a slight edge. Golden Knights in 7.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: DALLAS STARS VS VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Recent Stanley Cup finalists looking to complete unfinished business

Scott Cullen — Thu, 18 May 2023 13:47:17 +0000

The Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars have advanced through the second round and will meet in the Western Conference Final for a chance to play the winner of the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final.

Both the Stars and Golden Knights have reached the Stanley Cup Final recently. The Golden Knights are in their sixth season, so their entire history is recent, and they reached the Final in 2018, losing to the Washington Capitals. The Stars were defeated by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2020 Final.

DALLAS, TX - APRIL 08: Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Alec Martinez (23), Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston (53) and right wing Evgenii Dadonov (63) stand in front of Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Jonathan Quick (32) during the game between the Dallas Stars and the Vegas Golden Knights on April 8, 2023 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Forwards

Vegas’s strength has been depth, and that has allowed them to overcome injuries throughout the season but also to receive contributions up and down the lineup. With a relatively healthy lineup in the postseason, Jack Eichel and Mark Stone are leading the way offensively, with 14 and 12 points, respectively.

However, seven more Golden Knights forwards have accrued at least five points through 11 playoff games. Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault flank Eichel on the top line, and that trio has controlled better than 57% of expected goals during five-on-five play in the postseason. Marchessault started slowly in the playoffs, but produced eight points (5 G, 3 A) and 23 shots on goal in the last four games against Edmonton.

Mark Stone and speedy center Chandler Stephenson are a strong foundation on the second line, with Brett Howden moving up the depth chart to join them. Stephenson is tied for the team lead with six goals. Howden’s production dipped against Edmonton, but he does bring a physical presence in a supporting role.

Reilly Smith, William Karlsson, and Nicolas Roy give the Golden Knights a high quality third line. Smith and Karlsson both have produced eight points in 11 playoff games.

The fourth line of William Carrier, Teddy Blueger, and Keegan Kolesar does not score a lot, but will take a pound of flesh as Carrier and Kolesar lead the Golden Knights in hits/60 in the playoffs. Michael Amadio has appeared in nine playoff games, but Blueger joined the lineup for the last two games against Edmonton. Phil Kessel has not dressed for Vegas since Game 5 of the first round.

Roope Hintz has elevated his game in the postseason, leading the Stars with nine goals and 19 points in 13 playoff games. His shot rate has increased, and the Stars have controlled 68.5% of expected goals with Hintz on the ice during five-on-play in the playoffs. Jason Robertson has managed just two goals and while he has 10 assists and has been driving play, the Stars have room to get better if Robertson’s production gets back on track. Joe Pavelski suffered a concussion in Game 1 of the first round against Minnesota but scored eight goals in seven games against Seattle. That trio is in a strong contender for Like the Golden Knights, the Stars have a quality top nine and have been able to count on

Like the Golden Knights, the Stars have a quality top nine and have been able to count on any of their top three lines to chip in offensively. Veterans Max Domi, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Evgenii Dadonov all have at least nine points. Mason Marchment and rookie Wyatt Johnston both contributed four goals and six points.

Radek Faksa, Luke Glendening, Joel Kiviranta, and Ty Dellandrea, in some combination, fill fourth line roles for the most part and they have had a mixed bag of results. For example, the Stars have controlled 55.3% of expected goals but have been outscored 9-3 with Dellandrea on the ice for five-on-five play in the playoffs.

Both teams have quality depth, but Vegas appears to have a deeper reservoir of talent up front.

Defense

Alex Pietrangelo has seven assists while playing more than 24 minutes per game but his most memorable play in the postseason may be his two-handed slash on Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl. Pietrangelo was suspended for Game 5 of that series as a result. He has paired with Alec Martinez and that pairing has had just 42.5 CF% and 46.7 xGF%, but they have somehow outscored the opposition 11-4 during five-on-five play.

Vegas’ second pairing of Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb, who offer a good mix of skills, from Theodore’s puck movement to McNabb’s bone-crunching hits, has been their most effective pair in the postseason. They have pulled 52.2% expected goals as a tandem in the playoffs, and they are the only two Vegas blueliners on the right side of 50% in that metric.

The Golden Knights’s third pair of Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud is relatively solid. They have been on the wrong end of Corsi (47.3%) and expected goals (47.5%) but have outscored the opposition 6-3 in the postseason.

Miro Heiskanen had a tremendous season and has contributed nine assists while playing more than 28 minutes per game in 13 playoff games. While he has played a ton, Heiskanen has had just slightly positive results so far in the playoffs, with a 52.2 CF% and 51.7 xGF% while the Stars have outscored opponents 8-6 with Heiskanen on the ice. Paired with Ryan Suter, Heiskanen has been very good, but hardly dominant, in the postseason.

The trouble for the Stars lands on the second pair, where Jani Hakanpaa and Esa Lindell have managed just 43.5% of expected goals and been outscored 11-4 during five-on-five play in the playoffs. Hakanpaa was bumped from the defensive rotation for Colin Miller in Game 7 against Seattle.

Where the Stars have had an edge in the playoffs is with the third pair of Thomas Harley and Joel Hanley on the ice. Harley has seven points, and the Stars are controlling 63.2% of expected goals with him on the ice for five-on-five play. Hanley has appeared in eight games and the Stars have 69.2% of expected goals while outscoring opponents 8-2 with him on the ice during five-on-five play.

If Miller replacing Hakanpaa can’t fix the second pair, then that is an area of weakness for the Golden Knights to exploit.

While both clubs have some top end blueliners, there are points of vulnerability on both units. Considering the depth of forward talent on both teams, the challenge for the Golden Knights and Stars will be minimizing the potential mismatches.

Goaltending

Dallas’ Jake Oettinger was so highly regarded coming out of last season’s first round loss to Calgary and he was comfortably above average during the regular season, but he was unexpectedly shaky in the second round against Seattle, posting a .877 save percentage in seven games. Given his opposition, though, Oettinger should be expected to give the Stars an edge.

Vegas has been churning through goaltenders. The latest to take on the starting job is Adin Hill, who played well after jumping in for an injured Laurent Brossoit. Hill had a .915 save percentage in 27 regular-season games and put up a .934 save percentage in five games against the Oilers. Those are solid numbers but the challenge for Hill, and all Golden Knights goaltenders this season, is staying healthy for more than two weeks at a time.

Special Teams

Vegas’ power play has been a problem area and is the weakest in the postseason for the four teams remaining. The Golden Knights have scored 4.81 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play, which ranks 13^th. Eichel and Stone have combined to score five of Vegas’ seven power play goals in the playoffs.

Dallas’ power play was excellent during the regular season, ranking second in the league with 9.40 goals per 60 during five-on-four play, and that rate has improved in the postseason, up to 12.41. Tyler Seguin leads the Stars with four power play goals in the playoffs while Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz both have eight points with the man advantage.

The efficiency of the Stars’ power play could pose a major problem for the Golden Knights because Vegas’ PK has been abysmal. They have allowed 17.04 goals against per 60 during four-on-five play, ranking 15^th out of 16 playoff teams.

By contrast, the Stars’ penalty killing unit was strong during the regular season and that has carried over into the playoffs. Dallas has allowed 4.81 goals against per 60 at four-on-five, ranking third in the playoffs.

Conclusion

This should be a competitive series because both the Stars and Golden Knights have shown great resilience to reach this point of the playoffs. However, the Stars have a significant special teams edge and should likely have the better goaltender, which is enough to nudge this towards Big D. Stars in 7.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS EDMONTON OILERS – Oilers have been a freight train since the trade deadline, but return of Stone, team defense, make Vegas a tough out

Scott Cullen — Mon, 01 May 2023 22:30:22 +0000

EDMONTON, AB - NOVEMBER 19: Vegas Golden Knights Defenceman Nicolas Hague (14) clears the puck from Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) in the first period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Las Vegas Golden Knights on November 19, 2022 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

VEGAS vs. EDMONTON

After dispatching the Los Angeles Kings in six games in Round 1, the Edmonton Oilers head into a second-round matchup against the Pacific Division winning Vegas Golden Knights. The Golden Knights might have finished higher in the standings, but the Oilers are the team that is both favored to win the series, and one of the top favorites to capture the Stanley Cup.

The Oilers have been a freight train since the trade deadline, so it appears that they have momentum on their side, but the Golden Knights made short work of the Winnipeg Jets in the first round and are not likely to be an easy out.

Forwards

One of the benefits of having two superstars is that it is so difficult to shut down both. As ridiculous as it sounds, the Kings could have felt okay limiting Connor McDavid to three goals and 10 points in six games (a 41-goal and 137-point pace in 82 games) in the first round, but then Leon Draisaitl notched seven goals and 11 points in the series. They combined for 11 power play points in the first round.

The Oilers received four points against Los Angeles from wingers Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, Zach Hyman, and Klim Kostin. Edmonton’s depth forwards may not be scoring much, but they are controlling play. Edmonton controlled more than two-thirds of expected goals against Los Angeles when Kostin, Derek Ryan, Warren Foegele, and Ryan McLeod were on the ice.

For the Oilers to make a Stanley Cup run, they will need production from more than McDavid and Draisaitl, and it appears that they have enough quality depth to handle that responsibility.

The Golden Knights don’t have elite scorers like McDavid and Draisaitl, but there is still plenty of forward talent on hand.

Jack Eichel finally arrived in the playoffs, for the first time in his career, and he contributed three goals and five points with 17 shots on goal in five games against Winnipeg, a good start. Eichel’s line is not the most dangerous for the Golden Knights, though.

Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone both had eight points in the first round, and Brett Howden chipped in four points, while the trio controlled 60.7% of expected goals while outscoring Winnipeg 5-1 during five-on-five play.

Forward depth is a strong suit for the Golden Knights. William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith are proven performers, even though Marchessault managed just two assists in Round 1. Vegas has also received quality contributions from the likes of Michael Amadio, Ivan Barbashev and hard-hitting wingers Keegan Kolesar and William Carrier. The return of Carrier to the lineup bumped Phil Kessel to the press box for Game 5 against Winnipeg.

While Vegas looks like they might have an edge in forward depth, the question is whether that is going to be enough to overcome two of the most prolific scorers in the league.

Defense

When the Oilers moved out Tyson Barrie as part of the deal to acquire Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline, Evan Bouchard was the defender set up to step into a first unit power play role. While Bouchard and Ekholm were effective at evens against Los Angeles, controlling 54.7% of shot attempts and 51.4% of expected goals during five-on-five play. Bouchard kicked it up a notch on the power play, though, scoring eight of his 10 first-round points with the man advantage.

The Oilers outscored the Kings 5-2 when the pairing of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci were on the ice during five-on-five play, but Edmonton managed just 45.2% of shot attempts and 45.8% of expected goals in those situations, so there is some defensive vulnerability.

Brett Kulak, Vincent Desharnais, and Phillip Broberg round out the defense corps and all three had solid underlying numbers against the Kings. Desharnais was outscored 5-2, but that seems like randomness since the Oilers were controlling 62.8% of expected goals with Desharnais on the ice.

The Golden Knights used eight defensemen in Round 1, with Brayden Pachal and Ben Hutton getting into the lineup as injury replacements for Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb.

Alex Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez were the top pair against Winnipeg. The Golden Knights controlled 51.6% of expected goals and outscored the Jets 8-3 with that duo on the blueline. Theodore and McNabb both missed Game 5 against the Jets, but when they were on the ice together Vegas had 56.1% of the expected goals during five-on-five play against Winnipeg.

Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud are a strong third pairing for Vegas, when the team is healthy. They can move up the depth chart when Theodore and McNabb are out.

Vegas is a strong defensive team, allowing 2.78 all-situations expected goals against per 60 minutes, the third lowest rate in the first round.

Goaltending

Edmonton’s rookie netminder Stuart Skinner started all six games against the Kings in the first round, winning three. He was pulled after the first period in Game 4, with Jack Campbell stopping 27 of 28 shots to lead the Oilers to a pivotal victory. Skinner was an above average starter during the regular season but had a .890 save percentage against Los Angeles. If the Oilers are going to go on a Stanley Cup run, they will need better than .890 goaltending.

Even though he played just 11 games for the Golden Knights in the regular season, spending most of the year in the AHL after recovering from hip surgery, Laurent Brossoit was the clear starter in goal going into the series against Winnipeg, and Brossoit posted a .915 save percentage in five starts. He may not be one to steal too many victories, but solidly average goaltending can go a long way.

This is not a series in which either team can be supremely confident in their goaltending. Anything can happen with a goalie in the small sample of a playoff series, but the range of outcomes is practically infinite when it comes to relatively unproven options like Skinner and Brossoit.

Special Teams

Edmonton had a historically strong power play during the regular season, and it was even better in the first round against Los Angeles, ranking first among playoff teams with 20.96 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-four play. This is an area where Edmonton’s elite talent takes over.

The Golden Knights power play ranked 10^th with 7.06 goals per 60 during five-on-four play in the first round. That comes after ranking 19^th in goals per 60 during the regular season, so there is a clear difference in quality between the two teams when they have the man advantage. This is standard for the Oilers, of course.

While Edmonton’s penalty killing ranked 11^th in the first round with 11.87 goals against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play, the Golden Knights’ penalty kill was torched for five goals in 14:45 of four-on-five play (20.34 goals against per 60 minutes) against Winnipeg, the second worst rate in the first round of the postseason. Vegas allowed 85.42 shots against per 60 during four-on-five play in Round 1, the only team to surrender more than 70 shots against per 60. That’s a small sample, but it is ugly in a small sample.

If Vegas’ penalty killing is indeed a liability, then facing an Oilers power play that has been historically great figures to be an enormous problem.

Conclusion

Momentum is riding with the Oilers and even though they finished two points behind the Golden Knights in the standings, Edmonton had a better goal differential and had the league’s best record (17-2-1) after the trade deadline. That leads to Edmonton being favored even though Vegas holds home ice advantage.

Vegas has been an excellent defensive team and has been boosted by the return of Mark Stone for the playoffs. Is that enough to help them hold off the Oilers? It’s possible, but I’m still leaning towards the superstars carrying the series for Edmonton. Oilers in 6.

NHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: WINNIPEG JETS VS. VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – Can the Jets muster the offense to win?

Jesse Marshall — Sat, 15 Apr 2023 15:12:00 +0000

The Vegas Golden Knights enter this post-season as the top seed in the Western Conference. Even typing that feels weird, as it doesn't feel like Vegas has had that kind of dominance this season, but they've broken their franchise record in points en route to this top seed. This is a well-rounded team that does everything well enough and gets extraordinary offensive contributions all throughout its lineup.

The Jets are defensive specialists with good goaltending, is that enough to get the job done? These two teams last met in the 2018 Western Conference final where Vegas took the win in five games. Let's take a look at the tale of the tape between these teams before jumping into a prediction to round things out.

Offensive Breakdown: A David vs. Goliath Tale

NEWARK, NJ - JANUARY 24: Vegas Golden Knights center Jack Eichel (9) skates with the puck during the National Hockey League game between the Vegas Golden Knights and the New Jersey Devils on January 24, 2023 at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

We're starting off with the most lopsided aspect of this matchup. These two teams generate shots and scoring chances at near-equal paces to each other, but the Jets rank 27th in the league with regard to their ability to finish and the Golden Knights are 15th. That makes a huge difference in the bucket of actual goals scored. The Golden Knights are outpacing their expectations and have the 9th most goals in the league as a result. The Jets are struggling to finish opportunities and rank 23rd in goals-for as a result.

The struggle for the Jets is a total lack of transition and rush offense. Once they can establish a cycle, they begin to get some chances and shots on net, but until that time comes it's largely a hit and miss effort full of dump-and-chase hockey. Aside from Nikolaj Ehlers, the Jets do not have many players that they can comfortably rely on to carry the puck into the offensive zone with possession.

Ehlers, as it might not surprise you, also leads the team with regards to shooting off of the rush as well. Winnipeg's best work comes off of the cycle and from getting opportunities in-tight to the net. The generate more opportunities here than they do anywhere else on the ice. They also generate messy shots like deflections and rebounds at a rate higher than most of their peers. The Jets will be looking to their top line of Mark Scheifele and his 40+ goals to help them keep pace with things on offense. Look for the Jets to try and establish long, offensive zone possessions that work the puck low-to-high and generates attempts that challenge the goalie in high-danger areas.

It's a more dynamic story on the offensive side of the puck for the Golden Knights. I don't look at their results and point to one area to say that it's definitively responsible for their success. Their zone entry numbers from the All Three Zones project show that they have no issue carrying the puck and they do it frequently with contributions coming from all over their lineup, but especially from Jack Eichel.

Speaking of Eichel, he's found great success with Mark Stone this season and should the two of them find time together at even-strength, that is going to certainly challenge the Jets. Vegas passes the puck a lot once they enter the offensive zone. As a result of their wholesale approach to puck movement, they find a lot of space on the edges of the circles and in the slot. Keep an eye on William Carrier, he's set a career-high for game-winning goals and has registered a point on 78-percent of all the goals scored while he's on the ice at even-strength.

Defensive Comparison

LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 27: Winnipeg Jets Defenceman Josh Morrissey (44) carries the puck at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Rob Curtis/Icon Sportswire)

This is an area where the Jets can definitely hang with the Golden Knights. They allowed fewer goals against than the Knights this year and allow significantly fewer shots. The Jets protect their defensive blue line well and on controlled breakouts, it's not uncommon to find them with three bodies stacked at the blue line. However, that hasn't prevented them from stopping zone entries. I talked earlier about how good Vegas was at carrying the puck into the offensive zone with possession and the Jets haven't been great at defending that.

The Jets will look to Josh Morrissey, a legitimate Norris candidate for this season, to run the show for them on the backend. Morrissey's skating allows him to make significant contributions both offensively and defensively and the Jets will need him in both areas. Defensively speaking, Brenden Dillon has done a great job for the Jets this year. He's kept a strong, aggressive gap and has posted positive results in shot and scoring chance mitigation relative to his teammates as a result.

For the Golden Knights, their kryptonite has seemingly been their inability to protect the opposition from piling up on shot-attempts. The good news is that while Vegas allows a lot of shot-attempts, they keep most of them to the outside. They do have an issue with getting lost in transition on long cycle opportunities and center drives, but it's more of an annoyance versus something that could potentially sink them in the post-season.

The Golden Knights third pairing of Nicolas Hague and Ben Hutton have been posting quietly good results in the realm of shot and scoring-chance suppression. They can be deployed in a very confident fashion as a third-pairing. Meanwhile Alec Martinez and Alex Pieterangelo have controlled 55-percent of the quality scoring chances while they've been on the ice at even-strength.

Special Teams Battle

Neither of these teams have a power-play that particularly strikes fear into the heart of the opponent. The Golden Knights convert at just over 20-percent and the Jets come in at 19.3-percent. The one element that I think goes in the Golden Knights favor is that they take shots from all over the ice surface whereas the Jets are more limited to the right side of the ice. In fact, most of their attempts at offense come from this area courtesy of Connor being posted up there. Add in Nino Niederreiter and you've got a lot of firepower on that right-hand side of the ice.

For the Knights, they've struggled to find someone who can lift their power-play to the next level. Jonathan Marchessault leads the way with 9 power-play goals and 16 power-play points on the year.

On the penalty-killing side it's the Jets that have had more success so far this season. They boast the 7th-best penalty-kill in the league with an 82.4-percent success rate. Winnipeg's success in this are comes from the direct support they provide to their goaltending in these circumstances. Their penalty-kill is aggressive but tight to the front of their net. They will make opponents work for good opportunities from the exterior of the ice.

The Golden Knights have all the trappings to keep up with the Jets from a scoring chance prevention perspective, but they allow entirely too many shots and haven't gotten the good goaltending the Jets have on the penalty-kill. I mentioned the struggles the Jets have with generating shots outside of the right half of the ice surface on the power-play, and that's an area the Golden Knights have showed no trouble with on the penalty-kill.

Goaltending Comparison

The Jets path to stealing this series will come from the crease in the form of Connor Hellebuyck. It was another solid performance from him this season with a .920 save percentage. He had an expected goals-against total of 189 and an actualized goals-against total of 157.

I mentioned earlier the discrepancy in offensive talent here. If the Jets are going to keep these games close, they need huge performances in the crease to keep the scores low. Getting into an offensive shootout is not their game and goaltending is more important than ever for them as a result.

The big question here is who is going to be the game one started for the Golden Knights? The have, in some form or fashion, deployed a total of five goalies at regular points throughout this regular season. Laurent Brossoit has been playing well for them recently, could he get the call? Jonathan Quick has seem time for them as well, but he's posting a .901 save percentage and has allowed four more goals than a league average goaltender would in his situation.

This is a big advantage for the Jets as we know who their rock is in goal but the Golden Knights still have a question who will be starting in game one for them.

Prediction

Despite the questions about goaltending, I think a Golden Knights team that has just seen Mark Stone and Shea Theodore return to the lineup is too much to handle. The Jets have a top line that features some lethal goal-scorers and a group that can control the game, but I don't think that and the goaltending advantage is going to be enough to stave off a Golden Knights team that has a lot of different ways they can score goals. I'm taking the Golden Knights in six games.

Data for this piece was obtained by:

Corey Sznajder - All Three Zones

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Byram and Valimaki getting opportunity – Help on the wing in Teravainen, Carrier and Harvey-Pinard – Goaltending grabs

Scott Cullen — Fri, 17 Feb 2023 15:41:40 +0000

NEWARK, NJ - OCTOBER 28: Colorado Avalanche defenseman Bowen Byram (4) looks on during the National Hockey League game between the Colorado Avalanche and the New Jersey Devils on October 28, 2022 at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, Bowen Byram and Juuso Valimaki are getting bigger opportunities on the blueline, Teuvo Teravainen, William Carrier, and Rafael Harvey-Pinard may offer help on the wings, and Adin Hill and Philipp Grubauer are among the goaltenders that are widely available that could provide value for fantasy managers.

#1 With Cale Makar still out of the lineup due to a concussion, the Colorado Avalanche have been giving Bowen Byram a bigger role. Since returning from his own injury, Byram has three assists in five games while averaging 21:51 of ice time per game. Byram has the talent to be an impact player, but the 21-year-old has either had trouble staying healthy or gets lost in the shuffle behind Colorado’s other premier defensemen. He has 27 points in 64 career games, but 24 of those points have come at even strength. Among 222 defensemen that have played 1000 five-on-five minutes across the past three seasons, Bryam ranks 45^th with 1.05 points per 60 minutes.

#2 With Shayne Gostisbehere injured and Jakob Chychrun stuck in limbo while awaiting a trade, Juuso Valimaki is being asked to handle more responsibility on the Arizona blueline, and that includes quarterbacking the Coyotes’ top power play unit. He has six assists and 12 shots on goal in his past five games, averaging 22:42 of ice time per game.

#3 An upper-body injury hindered him earlier in the season, but Carolina Hurricanes left winger Teuvo Teravainen is rounding into form. In his past 11 games, Teravainen has nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 27 shots on goal. The 28-year-old has had four seasons of 60-plus points in his career, but has just 26 points (6 G, 20 A) in 44 games this season. However, he is back on Carolina’s top line and first power play unit, so Teravainen is poised for a big finish to the season.

#4 Vegas’ hard-driving left winger William Carrier is putting the puck in the net and it has elevated him into the land of fantasy relevance, especially in banger leagues because he brings a physical component to his game. In his past 8 games, Carrier has contributed nine points (5 G, 4 A) and 22 shots on goal. He is skating on the third line in Vegas with Chandler Stephenson and Phil Kessel, which is a better opportunity than he has typically had in his career and Carrier is making the most of it.

#5 Sticking in Vegas, starting goaltender Logan Thompson is injured so Adin Hill has a chance to handle the No. 1 role. Over the past month, Hill has a .933 save percentage in six games, and while he has never played more than 25 games in a NHL season, he has tended to deliver around league average results. If you’re looking for goaltending help at this stage of the season, he is worthy of consideration. If Hill falters, Laurent Brossoit has been recalled from the AHL, so he could see some action, too.

#6 For much of the season in Seattle, Martin Jones has been the number one option in net for the Kraken, but Philipp Grubauer is pushing to recapture the starter’s spot on the depth chart. In 2023, Grubauer has appeared in eight games and has a .927 save percentage, which is dramatically better than his play through his first season and a half with the Kraken.

#7 Usually, when seeking value from players on the fantasy waiver wire, it is nice to find a player who has some pedigree to lean on – a track record of production that would suggest that they might be able to do it in the NHL, too. Rafael Harvey-Pinard was a seventh-round pick of the Montreal Canadiens in 2019, and has been reasonably productive in the American Hockey League, but that did not portend the kind of scoring that he has immediately added to the Montreal lineup. With a goal in Thursday’s 6-2 loss at Carolina, Harvey-Pinard has nine points (7 G, 2 A) in 11 games since getting called up from the AHL. He has scored on 35% of his shots, which his obviously not sustainable, but that early success has also helped Harvey-Pinard get more ice time – he played a career-high 19:02 Thursday at Carolina.

#8 His production is down this season, and he may be on the move before the trade deadline, but Blues center Ryan O’Reilly has returned from injury with a three-game point streak, tallying three points (2 G, 1 A) with seven shots on goal. His modest production this season is why he is available in more leagues than usual, but O’Reilly could still be worth adding for the stretch run, especially if he moves to a better situation.

#9 It’s easy for production to get overlooked in Arizona, but Nick Schmaltz continues to deliver for the Coyotes. In his past nine games, Schmaltz has put up 14 points (7 G, 7 A) with 24 shots on goal and for a player who has never been a big volume shooter, it is encouraging that he is averaging a career high 2.05 shots on goal per game this season.

#10 It seems unlikely that Barrett Hayton will live up to the expectations created when the Arizona Coyotes drafted him fifth overall in 2018, but the Coyotes are giving him the reps to show what he can do in the NHL. In his past 22 games, Hayton has 15 points (6 G, 9 A) and 57 shots on goal, while averaging 18:00 minutes of ice time per game. He is skating on the top line with Schmaltz and Clayton Keller, so that certainly helps to boost his productivity.

#11 Montreal Canadiens winger Jonathan Drouin has had a hard time staying healthy, but he is working in a setup role when he is in the lineup. He has five assists in four games since returning from his latest injury, and now has zero goals and 17 assists through 32 games. There has never been a season in NHL history in which a forward finished a season with that many assists without scoring a single goal, so we are now on history watch to see if Drouin is going to be the first.

#12 The Calgary Flames bumped Dillon Dube up to the top line in mid-December, and the speedy winger has rewarded the club with strong production in that role. In his past 26 games, Dube has 22 points (11 G, 11 A) with 58 shots on goal. Among players that have played at least 200 five-on-five minutes since December 14, Dube ranks 12^th with 3.08 points per 60 minutes. That is a higher rate than players like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak, Jack Hughes, and Nikita Kucherov.

#13 There is potential value to be found further down the Flames’ depth chart, too. Veteran center Mikael Backlund had 18 points (6 G, 12 A) in 35 games going into the December holiday break. Since then, he has 16 points (4 G, 12 A) with 71 shots on goal in 20 games. That shot rate has lifted Backlund to a career-high 3.07 shots on goal per game and is a solid indication that he can maintain a quality level of point production even if he is in more of a supporting role offensively.

#14 While the Montreal Canadiens have a lot of young players getting turns on the blueline, veteran is Mike Matheson emerging as the leader of the group. In his past 15 games, going back to early December, Matheson has nine points (1 G, 8 A) and 33 shots on goal, while averaging 23:26 of ice time per game. He is quarterbacking the first power play unit for Montreal, so Matheson is worth some deep league consideration.

#15 After scoring a goal and adding an assist in Thursday’s 5-2 win at Calgary, Detroit Red Wings forward Robby Fabbri has eight points (3 G, 5 A) during a four-game point streak. Be a little skeptical of that production, though, because Fabbri is not generating shots – he has accrued just 25 shots on goal in 18 games, and that rate makes it tough to believe that his surge in scoring is going to last.

#16 Recording an assist on Winnipeg’s only goal in Thursday’s 3-1 loss at Columbus, veteran right winger Blake Wheeler continues to put up points. He has 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in his past nine games, though, like Fabbri, Wheeler is not a big shot generator. In his past nine games, he has just nine shots on goal. He also has 42 points (15 G, 27 A) in 46 games, making this the eighth straight season in which he has averaged better than 0.90 points per game.

#17 It was something of a surprise when, at the start of the season, Philip Tomasino was not on the Nashville Predators roster. He had 32 points (11 G, 21 A) in 76 games as a rookie last season, but was demoted to the American Hockey League. He responded by producing 32 points (12 G, 20 A) in 38 games and, in the wake of Filip Forsberg’s injury, Tomasino has been recalled to the Predators roster. He has not recorded any points in his first couple of games, but has generated five shots on goal and if Nashville becomes a seller before the trade deadline, there could be more opportunities for Tomasino to re-establish his value as an NHL player.

#18 The goaltender for the San Jose Sharks is not exactly a blue-chip fantasy stock, because the Sharks do not win that much, but Kaapo Kahkonen has a .929 save percentage in his past five games and figures to get the bulk of the action down the stretch. Veteran James Reimer, with an expiring contract, remains a potential trade candidate, and while Kahkonen has started 24 games this season, he should have a good chance to surpass the 36 games he appeared in last season.

#19 Depending on your desperation in goal, there are some longshot options to consider. With Anton Forsberg done for the season, with torn medial collateral ligaments in both knees, Mads Sogaard should see playing time in Ottawa, especially while Cam Talbot remains out. Talbot is also a potential trade candidate, so it is possible that Sogaard will play quite a bit for the rest of the season. Arizona’s Connor Ingram is coming off the best game of his NHL career, a 47-save shutout against Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Ingram has a respectable .907 save percentage in 18 games and there have been some rumors that starter Karel Vejmelka could be available for the right price. Wins might be tough in Ottawa or Arizona, but even more difficult to achieve in Chicago. Nevertheless, 23-year-old rookie Jaxson Stauber is worth keeping an eye on. Petr Mrazek has had another rough season and Alex Stalock has an issue with his eyesight, so it is possible that Stauber will continue to see action for the Blackhawks. He has a .911 save percentage in his first four NHL games.

#20 Injuries have hampered the production of Detroit Red Wings left winger Tyler Bertuzzi, but he is starting to find his footing. After putting up a goal and two assists in a 5-2 win at Calgary on Thursday, Bertuzzi has six points (2 G, 4 A) in his past six games. With the Red Wings back in the playoff hunt, Bertuzzi may be held back from the trading block, but if he continues to produce, there will be plenty of interest in the style of game that he can bring to a team heading to the postseason. Maybe that team will turn out to be the Red Wings.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

NHL: CULLEN – 20 FANTASY POINTS – Kraken Delivering Fantasy Targets plus much, much more.

Scott Cullen — Fri, 02 Dec 2022 18:17:08 +0000

Each week I dive into the numbers and offer some insights that should help when it comes time to make fantasy hockey decisions.

This week, look West, where the Seattle Kraken have won seven straight games and are chock full of productive players that are still widely available for fantasy hockey managers. From rookie Matty Beniers to veteran defenseman Justin Schultz and several points in between, the Kraken are a team to target.

SEATTLE, WA - NOVEMBER 11: Seattle Kraken center Matty Beniers (10) skates during an NHL game between the Minnesota Wild and the Seattle Kraken on November 11, 2022 at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Jeff Halstead/Icon Sportswire)

#1 Calder Trophy front-runner Matty Beniers is stepping up as the No. 1 center for the Seattle Kraken. The second pick in the 2020 Draft, Beniers has 12 points (5 G, 7 A) during a six-game point streak. He is not a huge shot generator, with two shots or fewer in 20 of 23 games, so that is an area that might need some work if he is going to maintain his current goal-scoring pace of 10 goals in 23 games. Otherwise, Beniers will need to keep scoring on 23.3% of his shots and that is not a reasonable expectation.

#2 Veteran Seattle Kraken right winger Jordan Eberle had a slow start to the season, managing no goals and four assists through his first eight games, but he has put up 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in his past 15 games. Eberle has not had a 50-point season since 2017-2018, but he has found a good fit on a line with Beniers and Jared McCann.

#3 In his past 15 games, Seattle Kraken left winger Jared McCann has produced 13 points (9 G, 4 A). He has scored 37 goals in 94 games since joining the Kraken in the expansion draft. While McCann, like Beniers, is not likely to keep scoring on 23.3% of his shots, as he has this season, this line is helping the Kraken generate significantly more offense than they did last season. The Kraken have 3.75 goals per 60 minutes this season, which ranks third. Last season, they ranked 28th with 2.58 goals per 60 minutes.

#4 It is hard to put too many expectations on a forward who is playing 10 minutes per game, but Seattle seems to have found right way to deploy Daniel Sprong. Even in limited ice time, Sprong has produced 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in 16 games. He does contribute on the power play, but he is also generating even-strength offense. The leaders in points per 60 minutes during five-on-five play (minimum 100 minutes): Morgan Geekie (3.78), Matthew Tkachuk (3.72), Nico Hischier (3.68), Sprong (3.65), and Sidney Crosby (3.64).

#5 Seattle Kraken defenseman Justin Schultz last scored more than 27 points in a season in 2016-2017. He has always had good puck skills but has tended to fill a supporting role on the blueline for most of his teams. With the Kraken, Schultz runs the second power play unit, but he has quickly produced 10 points (2 G, 8 A) in his past seven games. Vince Dunn is still the Kraken defenseman on the No. 1 power play unit, but Schultz now leads the Kraken with seven power play assists.

#6 Vancouver Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko left Thursday’s loss to Florida with what looked like it could be a groin injury. It remains to be seen how long Demko will be out of the lineup, but Spencer Martin should be poised to play a more significant role with Demko out. Martin has a .900 save percentage in 10 games this season. That is a little below league average, but Martin’s 10 games played in the NHL this season already counts as a career high. The Canucks may be about to find out just how ready Martin is for NHL action.

#7 An old rookie making the transition from the KHL, Vancouver Canucks winger Andrei Kuzmenko is 26 years old. He has also been on a tear in recent weeks, putting up 10 points (4 G, 6 A) in the past seven games. He has scored on 22.0% of his shots this season, so Kuzmenko could use more shots to make his offense more sustainable, but he is establishing his value as a quality complementary piece on a line with Elias Pettersson and Ilya Mikheyev.

#8 Winnipeg Jets rookie winger Cole Perfetti is climbing in the rookie scoring race, with six points (1 G, 5 A) in the past five games giving him 14 points (4 G, 10 A) on the season. He is now skating on Winnipeg’s top line, with Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, and has upped his shot rate, generating 15 shots on goal in the past five games. He has tended to be a pass-first player, but if Perfetti can maintain the higher shot rate, there is a better chance for his goal totals to climb, too.

#9 The combination has worked for 36-year-old Jets right winger Blake Wheeler, who has put up 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in the past five games. Wheeler’s all-around game is not to the level that he displayed during his peak years, but he remains a productive offensive player. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, Wheeler has 126 points (39 G, 87 A) in 136 games, so even if this is the decline phase of his career, it is a very productive decline phase.

#10 Returning to the Boston Bruins after spending last season in Czechia, David Krejci has nine points (6 G, 3 A) during a six-game point streak. That gives him 18 points (8 G, 10 A) in 19 games, and it is worth noting that, for as successful as his career has been, the 36-year-old has never scored at a point-per-game clip for a full NHL season.

#11 Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly is going to be out until at least mid-December due to a knee injury which opens up more ice time, including on Toronto’s top power play, for Rasmus Sandin. Sandin has just two points (1 G, 1 A) in the past five games, but he has also averaged 21:26 of ice time per game in those five games, a major increase from the 16:42 per game that he was averaging previously.

#12 Pucks are not going in for him the way that they did last season, when he scored 23 goals in 79 games, but Toronto Maple Leafs left winger Michael Bunting is still contributing to Toronto’s top line. Bunting has nine points (2 G, 7 A) in the past nine games and, after trying out some other combinations, the Maple Leafs seem to have figured out that Bunting still fits in a complementary role on that No. 1 line alongside Auston Matthews.

#13 Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins struggled to a .864 save percentage in nine games before he landed on the injured list with a lower-body injury. Rookie netminder Daniil Tarasov has received a better opportunity with Merzlikins out and 23-year-old Tarasov has delivered a .912 save percentage in seven games. For fantasy managers, wins are not going to come easily in Columbus, but Tarasov is getting a chance to prove that he is ready for the NHL and is making the most of that opportunity.

#14 Usually, it seems like a dicey proposition when a team needs to turn to its third-string goaltender but that is not always the case. When the Toronto Maple Leafs had injuries to goaltenders Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray, Erik Kallgren stepped in to give the Maple Leafs solid play between the pipes. Even though Kallgren has a .898 save percentage in 10 games, in his last six starts, he had a 3-1-2 record with a .907 save percentage, which is entirely fine from a third-string goaltender.

#15 What is interesting is that coming into the season, Toronto’s goaltending was one of the major question marks and the tandem of Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray has been better than advertised. Perhaps it should be no surprise that they have missed time with injuries, but Samsonov has a .924 save percentage in nine games and Murray has a .927 save percentage in seven games. They have combined for a 12-3-1 record. While neither one is ideal for fantasy purposes, because they have not established that they can handle the workload of a true starting goaltender, both are entirely useful to plug in when they are healthy.

#16 He does not tend to score enough to be more than a banger league consideration, but Vegas Golden Knights left winger William Carrier is creating more offensively. In his past eight games, Carrier has scored five goals and recorded 22 hits, giving him 11 points (8 G, 3 A) and 64 hits in 24 games. Carrier has 1.76 goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play. Among players with at least 100 five-on-five minutes, these are the five players with a higher rate of goals per 60 minutes: Jason Robertson (2.11), Jared McCann (2.02), Elias Pettersson (1.88), Andrei Svechnikov (1.84), and Sidney Crosby (1.82).

#17 Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Kris Letang is out indefinitely after suffering the second stroke of his career. While this stroke is reportedly not as severe as the one that Letang suffered in 2014, it is understandable that the Penguins are going to be cautious with their long-time star blueliner before he has a chance to return to the ice. In the meantime, Jeff Petry will take over the point on Pittsburgh’s No. 1 power play unit. Petry has three assists in his past four games and has 11 points (3 G, 8 A) in 24 games for the season. Combined with his big hit and blocked shot totals, Petry remains a valuable, yet frequently underrated, defenseman for fantasy purposes.

#18 The leader in shot attempts per 60 minutes during five-on-four play (minimum 30 minutes) is Los Angeles Kings right winger Arthur Kaliyev, who has 49.1 shot attempts per 60. That puts him ahead of Jason Robertson (48.0), Timo Meier (41.5), David Pastrnak (41.2), and Alex Ovechkin (39.3). Kaliyev pulling the trigger 25% more than Ovechkin on the power play is certainly a strategy. Kaliyev has 16 points (8 G, 8 A) in 25 games, and half of those points have come on the power play.

#19 While the spotlight does not shine brightly in Arizona, veteran defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and Jakob Chychrun are the Coyotes blueliners that draw the most attention. Don’t sleep on J.J. Moser, the second-year defenseman who has put up eight points (2 G, 6 A) while logging more than 23 minutes per game in the past 10 games.

#20 When the Montreal Canadiens acquired veteran center Sean Monahan in the offseason, there was naturally some concern about Monahan’s health. He had hip surgery and was coming off a season in which he had just eight goals and 23 points in 65 games. Those concerns were misplaced, apparently, because Monahan has been a solid contributor for the Habs. After assisting on both goals in Montreal’s 2-1 win at Calgary on Thursday, Monahan has 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in the past 10 games and has most recently found a fit in the middle of a pair of power forwards, rookie Juraj Slafkovsky and veteran winger Josh Anderson. For a Montreal team that depends heavily on scoring from Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, they can appreciate the secondary scoring that Monahan provides.

*Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick.

MCKEEN’S 2022-23 NHL YEARBOOK – VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS – NHL Player Profiles

Ryan Dadoun – Forwards and Defense, Catherine Silverman - Goaltending — Fri, 16 Sep 2022 22:15:05 +0000

VANCOUVER, BC - APRIL 03: Vegas Golden Knights center Jack Eichel (9) skates up ice during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on April 3, 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire)

FORWARDS

Jack Eichel

After years of disappointment in Buffalo, it ultimately wasn’t the Sabres’ continued inability to make the playoffs that pushed Eichel out, it was a medical disagreement. Eichel couldn’t play because of a neck injury, but his medical team and Buffalo couldn’t agree on how to handle the situation. He wanted to undergo artificial disc replacement and the Sabres refused to sign off on that treatment, which hadn’t been performed on an NHL player to that point. That situation dragged on until November when he was finally traded to Vegas, and then on February 16th he made his Golden Knights debut after having undergone and recovered from the artificial disc replacement surgery. Eichel wasn’t quite as good as he normally is for what was left of the season, but he more than held his own with 14 goals and 25 points in 34 games. After the season it was revealed that Eichel had been playing with a broken thumb since March 17th. Between the fact he had to jump into the lineup with a new team more than halfway through the year and the revelation that he was playing hurt for the last chunk of the campaign, it’s hard to read too much into his performance in 2021-22. What we can say is that when Eichel is healthy, he’s good enough to slot in as the top center on most teams in the league. Taken second after Connor McDavid in the 2015 draft, Eichel hasn’t reached McDavid’s heights and likely won’t, but Eichel’s the complete offensive package and can drive Vegas’ offense while averaging over a point-per-game.

Mark Stone

Stone is one of the league’s best two-way forwards, but last season his impact was severely hampered by injuries. He had multiple stints on the sidelines and after the season, he underwent back surgery. The good news is that he’s expected to be ready for training camp, but it’s hard to read too much into his season given his injury woes. Stone was particularly ineffective when he attempted to return on April 12th in a failed bid to push Vegas into the playoffs. Stone admitted after his first game back that he didn’t feel very good, and he ultimately was limited to just a goal and an assist over his final nine games. That dragged him below a point-per-game, finishing the season with nine goals and 30 points in 37 contests. That’s still pretty good all things considered, and he should be entering this season hungry. He felt he “skunked” in the 2021 semifinals against Montreal and his injury situation prevented him from being able to truly redeem himself last season. Vegas ultimately missed the playoffs for the first time in their short franchise’s history, in no small part due to injuries, and as the team captain, Stone will be looked upon to lead this team back into contention. If he can stay healthy, that’s a task he’s up for. He’s capable of providing around 30 goals and 70-80 points while simultaneously contending for the Selke Trophy.

William Karlsson

When evaluating William Karlsson, it would be best to forget his 2017-18 campaign. He had 43 goals and 78 points in 82 games that season but reached those heights by posting a 23.4 shooting percentage, scoring 43 goals versus 26.3 expected goals. In other words, he vastly overperformed that season and it’s not surprising that he hasn’t been able to measure up to those heights since. Instead, it’s best to look at Karlsson as a solid second line forward who is responsible defensively and can be used on both the power play and penalty kill. He doesn’t have much of a physical element to his game, but the positive there is that he also doesn’t take many penalties. He’s also become a modest asset on the draw in recent years, going from a 47% success rate on the draw from 2016-17 through 2018-19 to 52.5% over the last three seasons. He had 12 goals and 35 points in 67 contests in 2021-22, which was on the low side for him from a points-per-game perspective. He also had an 8.9% shot percentage, which was his lowest since he joined the Golden Knights. He had a 55.6 IPP and 970 PDO, which suggests that he might have been a bit unlucky last season. It wouldn’t be out of line to expect him to push for the 20-goal and 50-point milestones if he plays the full 82 games.

Jonathan Marchessault

Vegas was devastated by injuries last season, which made Marchessault somewhat unique among the forward core for his ability to stay fairly healthy. In fact, among Golden Knights forwards, he was one of just four players to log at least 70 games. Not only did he stay healthy though, but he also excelled, scoring a team-leading 30 goals and 66 points in 76 games. That made this his best season since 2017-18, but it wasn’t too far a deviation from the norm. This is the fifth straight season that he’s averaged at least .71 points-per-game, which translates to roughly 58 points over 82 contests. That consistency is a testament to his hard work and determination in face of significant odds. At 5-foot-9, he’s an undersized forward who went undrafted. He had to work his way up from the AHL and didn’t establish himself as a top-six forward until the 2016-17 campaign, during which he celebrated his 26th birthday. Despite taking the long road to the NHL, he’s managed to stay at the top for a while now. He’s certainly not without his weaknesses, he’s not much of a physical presence and he’s nothing to write home about defensively. At the same time, his work with the puck more than makes up for that. Vegas is a significantly better team when he’s on the ice, as evidenced by his plus-5.4 relative Corsi For and his plus-6.4 relative Fenwick For in 5v5 situations. He was well worth his $5 million cap hit last season and should continue to provide Vegas with great value in 2022-23.

Reilly Smith

Smith isn’t a headline forward, but there’s a reason why Vegas felt it was important to ink him to a three-year, $15 million contract over the summer despite their cap woes. To put it simply, he does most things well. He doesn’t take a ton of shots, but he’s effective when he does fire the puck and he’s perfectly capable of creating chances for his teammates. Smith did struggle by his standards in 2020-21, finishing with 14 goals and 25 points in 53 games, but he bounced back last season while playing primarily on Vegas’ second line last season alongside William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault. Although he missed a significant chunk of the season with a knee injury, he contributed 16 goals and 38 points in 56 games. From a points-per-game perspective, that’s the fourth time in five years that Smith has exceeded 0.65 PPG, which would translate to roughly 53 points over 82 games. He’s also solid defensively and led the team in shorthanded minutes per game with 1:46. Smith is an original member of the Golden Knights, having been acquired from Florida for the low price of a fourth-round pick back in June 2017. While there’s been a lot of turnover in Vegas since their unexpected run to the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season, the Golden Knights clearly continue to value his strong two-way play and given that he’s not too old at the age of 31, he seems like a safe bet to continue to serve as a great second line option through the life of his new contract.

Chandler Stephenson

In a season where Vegas as a franchise endured its first major disappointment by missing the playoffs, Stephenson’s performance was something of a silver lining. He took a step forward in 2020-21 with 14 goals and 35 points in 79 games but blew that out of the water last season by scoring 21 goals and 64 points in 79 contests. Part of his rise has been thanks to his increased role. When the Golden Knights acquired him from the Capitals in 2019-20, his playing time jumped from an average of 11:50 minutes in Washington to 15:47 minutes over the rest of the campaign. His responsibilities have continued to increase in Vegas to the point where he was averaging 19:19 minutes last season. In Stephenson, Vegas has a speedy forward who can slot in comfortably with pretty much any linemates. Vegas also sends him out with confidence on both the power play and penalty kill. His 5-on-5 play is nothing to sneeze at either. He led the team in even-strength points with 48 and had a solid 5v5 Corsi For and Fenwick For at 51.3 and 52.5 respectively. It will be interesting to see how Vegas opts to utilize him this season. A full season of Jack Eichel when combined with the return of William Karlsson and Nicolas Roy gives the Golden Knights no shortage of capable centers to compete with Stephenson. At the time, Vegas lost Max Pacioretty and Evgenii Dadonov to cap saving trades, so their thinner on the wings. That could lead to Vegas shifting a natural center and to that end, it is worth noting that Stephenson received some 5v5 ice time with Eichel last season. That duo might find themselves together a lot more in 2022-23.

Keegan Kolesar

Kolesar’s offensive game has been slow to develop, and it remains to be seen if he’ll ever be a significant threat with the puck, but he has made a name for himself among the Golden Knights thanks to his physical play. He set a career-high with 246 hits in 77 games, which was good for 10th in the NHL and made him Vegas’ leader by a margin of 87 hits. With Ryan Reaves no longer a part of the team, Kolesar has latched onto the role as the team’s main enforcer. To that end, he also wasn’t shy about dropping the gloves last season, logging eight fights. He set career-highs offensively too, but those were far less impressive. He finished with seven goals and 24 points in 77 contests. Part of the problem was that he was averaging just 12:39 minutes and he also lacked consistent linemates. Let’s not pretend that his only issue was a lack of opportunities though. In terms of 5v5 points/60, he was the third worst forward on the team at 1.43 (min. 20 games played). His offensive upside isn’t high, so don’t expect a breakout here and with the number of skilled forwards the Golden Knights already have, they’re likely to continue to utilize him primarily in a bottom-six role. Fortunately, that’s a role he’s well suited for. He might not be a star forward, but he will help Vegas round out its team.

Nicolas Roy

With the 2021-22 Vegas Golden Knights devastated by injuries throughout the season, some players had to play bigger roles and one major example of that was Roy. He averaged 16:15 minutes last season, shattering his 2020-21 career-high of 13:01. It wasn’t a flawless transition for him. Although he did provide a bit of a physical edge with 85 hits, he wasn’t great defensively. That said, he made solid contributions with the puck, scoring 15 goals and 39 points in 78 contests. He also had a plus-2.1 5v5 relative Corsi For and plus-0.3 5v5 relative Fenwick For, so he at very least wasn’t a liability compared to his teammates from a puck possession perspective. It’s also worth noting that Roy averaged a somewhat modest 1:45 power-play minutes and a lot of that came as part of Vegas’ second unit. For that reason, Roy’s offensive gains came despite limited production on the power play. Of his 39 points, 33 of them came at even strength. In fact, in terms of 5v5 points/60, Roy held his own at 1.70, which put him in ninth place among Vegas forwards (min. 20 games played), just behind Jack Eichel (1.74) and not too far off from Evgenii Dadonov (1.84) or Jonathan Marchessault (1.91). Looking ahead to the 2021-22 campaign, Roy should be penciled in as the team’s third-line center, but with Dadonov and Max Pacioretty gone, there’s some potential for him to shift to the wing to serve in a second line role. It wouldn’t be surprising if his role changes on a semi-regular basis over the course of the season, resulting in him getting somewhat similar minutes to what he enjoyed last season.

Nolan Patrick

It’s hard not to feel sympathy for Patrick, even though that’s probably the last emotion he was hoping to elicit from people five years after being taken with the second overall pick by the Philadelphia Flyers. Patrick’s first two seasons in the NHL weren’t great, but they were okay. He recorded 30 and 31 points while seeing his role slowly increase. Then injuries completely derailed his career. He couldn’t play at all in 2019-20 because of a migraine disorder. That not only robbed him of a valuable chance to grow his role, but also critical development time. He was able to return for the 2020-21 campaign, but it was difficult for him to pick up where he left off. He contributed just four goals and nine points in 52 contests while averaging a modest 13:17 minutes. The Flyers gave him an opportunity to get a fresh start when they dealt him to the Vegas Golden Knights during the summer of 2021, but injuries once again spoiled his opportunity. He only got into four games before being sidelined for roughly two months due to an upper-body injury and that wouldn’t be his last stint on the sidelines. He ultimately finished with two goals and seven points in 25 games while averaging a career-low 11:30 minutes. Patrick has size, offensive potential, and can play with a physical edge. After all the setbacks he’s endured though, it’s tough to maintain optimism about his prospects. The one silver lining here is that the Golden Knights’ cap saving trades over the summer have created a top-nine opportunity for Patrick to seize if he can stay healthy.

DEFENSE

Alex Pietrangelo

When discussing who the best defenseman was from the first generation of salary cap era players, Pietrangelo won’t be the name that’s thrown out a lot. He’s never been a finalist for the Norris Trophy, nor has he ever led the defenseman scoring race. But he exists at a level just a hair below that: Not quite the very best of his era, but one of the elite blueliners all the same. He’s been consistently excellent, averaging over 24 minutes in each of the last 11 campaigns while averaging over 0.5 points-per-game in each of the last 12 seasons. He maintained his high standards in 2021-22, scoring 13 goals and 44 points in 80 games while averaging 24:39 minutes with Vegas. His contributions go beyond just being a great puck mover though. He ranked second on the Golden Knights with an average of 2:27 shorthanded minutes and he was eighth in the NHL with 164 blocked shots. Plus, while he didn’t get the opportunity to do so last season, he’s had some amazing playoff runs in recent years. He played a critical role in the Blues’ 2019 championship run, contributing three goals and 19 points in 26 postseason games and he was great during Vegas’ 2021 playoff run with four goals and 12 points in 19 contests. All-in-all, he’s been providing the Golden Knights with a valuable foundation to their blueline and given his extensive track record, he’s a safe bet to continue to perform at a high level this season.

Alec Martinez

Sometimes luck just isn’t on your side. Coming off a 2020-21 campaign where Martinez exceeded expectations by scoring nine goals and 32 points in 53 games while averaging 22:34 minutes for Vegas, Martinez was only able to participate in 26 contests last season. His absence was for the flukiest of reasons: Martinez was the unfortunate victim of a cut by the skate of Minnesota's Brandon Duhaime on Nov. 11th. He missed the next four-and-a-half months while recovering from that unfortunate incident. He’s healthy now though, so what should we expect from him? First off, it’d be best to temper your expectations when it comes to his offensive contributions. He saw his production roughly half in 2021-22 in terms of points-per-game from 0.6 to 0.31 and while it’s true that he suffered from a small sample size last season, the 2020-21 campaign was an outlier in the context of his career. He’s also 35-years-old and it wouldn’t be surprising if he shows his age a bit. Even still, he’s good in his own end of the ice and a terrific shot blocker. He easily led the NHL in blocks in 2020-21 with 168. The next best player was Adam Larsson, who finished a full 40 blocks behind him. Even in 2021-22, he still managed to get in front of 68 shots despite being limited to 26 games. So even in the likely event that he doesn’t fully recapture his offensive success in 2020-21, he’s going to be a very useful defenseman for Vegas.

Shea Theodore

Theodore is a defenseman without much of a physical side to his game, he doesn’t stand out at his own end of the ice, and Vegas has never trusted him with a noteworthy amount of shorthanded ice time. There is one thing better than 95% of the defensemen in the league though: generate offense. He moves the puck well and isn’t shy about firing it. In fact, he ranked seventh among defensemen last season with 417 shot attempts. That persistence paid off. Theodore had 14 goals and 52 points in 78 games last season, making it the third straight season that he logged over 40 points. He chipped in on the power play, but where he really stood out was 5v5 play. He ranked fourth among defensemen with 13 even-strength goals and tied for eighth place with 40 even-strength points. While game-winning goals can sometimes be a luck-based stat, it is worth noting that he was also one of just six blueliners with at least five winners. Now 27-years-old, Theodore is firmly in the prime of his career and Vegas has him locked in at $5.2 million. That’s a reasonable cap hit given what he brings to the table and the fact that it’ll stay at that level for the next three seasons is critical for the cap-strapped Golden Knights. Vegas will continue to lean heavily on Theodore next season in even-strength situations and he should continue to get a prominent role with the man advantage. That combined with his skill level makes him a good bet to exceed the 40-point milestone again.

Brayden McNabb

For years now, McNabb has made a good living out of being strong in his own end, sacrificing his body, and making life miserable for anyone he’s up against. He led all blueliners last season with 179 blocks and dished out 154 hits. That made him just one of six players to finish the season with over 150 in both hits and blocks. Given his skill set, it shouldn’t surprise you to find out that he also led the Golden Knights in average shorthanded minutes with 2:38. And yet, that’s where the praise for him ends. He was okay offensively last season with three goals and 18 points in 69 games, but those aren’t exactly eye-catching numbers and yet they’re about as good as it gets for McNabb when measured against his career. The 31-year-old has also lost a touch of his physical edge in 2021-22. He was clearly still an impact player in that regard, but his 6.79 hits/60 last season was the lowest it’s been since his 2011-12 rookie campaign. As he gets older, the 6-foot-4 defenseman might deliver big hits with diminishing frequency, but one season alone doesn’t make a trend and he’s not in the twilight of his career just yet. Even in the scenario where his physical play does continue to slowly taper off, he’ll continue to be a reliable stay-at-home defenseman in 2022-23. How many more years that will be the case though remains to be seen.

GOALTENDING

Laurent Brossoit

The Vegas Golden Knights certainly didn’t seem prepared to name backup Laurent Brossoit as their number one this year, particularly given the negative fan reaction to the team’s surprising choice to deal goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury last summer to the rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks. But with true number one Robin Lehner set to miss extended time for surgery, Vegas will have to hope that the mercurial Brossoit – who can be one of the league’s most underrated backups or one of its most mediocre – can step up and be a reliable option as the team looks to bounce back from their poor 2021-22 showing.

Brossoit has provided ample evidence that he’s capable of playing a powerful, hard-to-beat game; he, like his new backup Adin Hill, is biomechanically more flexible and adaptable than most goaltenders his size, and therefore is able to make stops few other goaltenders are capable of making. But while he has the ability to reach pucks that seem impossible and bend himself into desperation saves few others can, he also struggles to keep his game controlled and contained; he has a bad habit of looking a bit like he’s all limbs and no structure when he starts to panic, which opens up holes and makes him susceptible to being pulled out of position by offensive systems capable of establishing cross-ice passing patterns.

Projected starts: 45-50

Adin Hill

The San Jose Sharks’ acquisition of former Arizona Coyotes prospect Adin Hill in the summer of 2021 was met with mixed reviews, with fans and pundits on both sides of the trade unclear if he was a promising replacement for Martin Jones or a middling prospect who needed a fresh start to truly show what he could do. And after a full year in the Bay Area, it’s still difficult to determine what he offers as he moves teams once again; despite plenty of successful games and a clear top-tier ability to make stops that other goaltenders find physically impossible, Hill’s season with San Jose once again yielded mediocre results that looked just a step or two away from being legitimately good.

Hill’s game shows that he’s capable of holding his own against the league’s best; he’s got lightning-fast footspeed and an elite level of agility that enables him to physically attempt stops from wider stances and more flexible positions than goaltenders less physically limber. But he also has some questionable instincts in both his positioning – particularly with his arms, where he tends to open up holes – and in his depth management, which can be too aggressive for his size. And he’s been known to crumble after bad goals, struggling to keep his composure and getting too reactionary with his movements in a way that opens him up to flurries of goals in the aftermath. That, combined with a tendency to fall into slumps instead of immediately bouncing back from bad games, make him a hard sell as a true starter or 1A on a roster – although with Robin Lehner out in Vegas, the Golden Knights will have to see one of either Hill or Brossoit level their longevity game out in order to bounce back from their disappointing 2021-22 campaign.

Projected starts: 35-40