William von Barnekow – McKeen's Hockey

2021 NHL DRAFT: ATLANTIC DIVISION REVIEW

Ryan Wagman — Mon, 30 Aug 2021 15:40:04 +0000

2021 NHL Draft Review

Time to review the draft, in depth. As I have done in previous seasons, this review will cover the league one division at a time. For each team, we will offer a quick summary of their draft class, a deeper look at their first pick/first rounder(s), and then a look at what we think to be the best value pick of their draft class, and a final look at their worst value pick. Once the divisions have all been covered, a final article will go over some other miscellaneous trends of the draft that was (odds & ends), and the annual McKeens shadow draft class. Let’s dig in.

Atlantic Division

Luleå's Fabian Lysell during the ice hockey match in the SHL between Rögle and Luleå on 5 January 2021 in Ängelholm.
Photo: Petter Arvidson / BILDBYRÅN

Boston Bruins

1 (21) Fabian Lysell, RW, Lulea HF (SHL)

3 (85) Brett Harrison, C, KOOVEE U20 (U20 SM-sarja)/Oshawa (OHL)

4 (117) Philip Svedeback, G, Vaxjo HC J20 (J20 Nationell)

5 (149) Oskar Jellvik, LW, Djurgardens IF J20 (J20 Nationell)

6 (181) Ryan Mast, D, Sarnia (OHL)

7 (213) Andre Gasseau, C, USNTDP (USHL)

7 (217) Ty Gallagher, D, USNTDP (USHL)

The Bruins had used a lot of their picks in recent years on lower-upside, higher floor players, giving them a system with a lot of players with NHL projections, but few looking like top half of the lineup types. This year, Boston took a different approach, largely drafting for upside, seeing which players dropped and finding a home for them. Five of their seven picks were selected lower than we had them ranked. I also appreciated how they spread out their picks among the different on-ice positions, selecting one goalie, two blueliners, two wingers, and two centers. As for geography, they selected three players out of Sweden, two from the USNTDP, and two Ontarians, one of whom spent the year in Finland with the cancellation of the OHL season, and the other who didn’t see game action last year. So, no major trends of note here, but they commendably let the draft come to them, not even making any draft day trades to move up, down, in, or out.

First round pick – Fabian Lysell, RW, Lulea HF (SHL), 21^st overall

Although his profile was not without warts – some clubs were disconcerted by his request to be moved from Frolunda to Lulea mid-season last year, Lysell reminded the hockey world what he is capable of with a stellar showing at the World Under 18 tournament, where he tied for the team lead in scoring on the Bronze Medal winning Swedish side. He is an electrifying puck handler, and his development will include learning when to play it simple, and when unleash his creativity and skill. His talent level is rare and gives him top line upside if it all clicks. A pick to get excited about.

Best value pick(s) – Ty Gallagher, D, USNTDP (USHL), 217^th overall, & Ryan Mast, D, Sarnia Sting (OHL), 181^st overall

Although the Bruins didn’t select a defender until the sixth round, they ended the draft with a pair of pretty good ones. Mast is a big, shutdown type with a right-handed shot. He has never displayed much of an offensive side, at any level of his development, but he has always known how to take care of business in his own end. We highly suspect that had he played at all this year, he would have been drafted far earlier. As for Gallagher, he is the polar opposite style of defender compared to Mast. He is a riverboat gambler who gets dinged for skating concerns, but as the year progressed, he timed his risks much better and his ability to positively impact a shift grew exponentially, which included a stellar showing for Team USA at the WU18s. His rawness can be very frustrating at times, but he tries to make things happen, and has enough skill and hockey sense to succeed enough to be of value.

Worst value pick – Oskar Jellvik, LW/C, Djurgardens IF J20 (J20 Nationell), 149^th overall

I though about naming fourth round pick Philip Svedeback, a goalie who had been passed over in his first year of eligibility and was unrated by us – or any other public facing outlet, but he was also drafted by Dubuque in the USHL draft and will spend next season stateside. Jellvik was considered by our Swedish analyst, but despite solid numbers in the Swedish junior leagues, he doesn’t seem very projectable, with an average frame, and tools that project in the sphere of average across the board. He is only a fifth rounder, but there isn’t much to dream on.

Photo Courtesy of the University of Michigan

Buffalo Sabres

1 (1) Owen Power, D, Michigan (NCAA/Big 10)

1 (14) Isak Rosen, RW, Leksands IF (SHL)

2 (33) Prokhor Poltapov, LW, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva (MHL)

2 (53) Alexander Kisakov, LW, MHK Dynamo Moskva (MHL)

3 (88) Stiven Sardaryan, RW, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva (MHL)

3 (95) Josh Bloom, LW Saginaw (OHL)

4 (97) Olivier Nadeau, RW, Shawinigan (QMJHL)

5 (159) Viljami Marjala, LW, Quebec (QMJHL)

6 (161) William von Barnekow, LW/RW, Tyringe SoSS (HockeyEttan)

6 (188) Nikita Novikov, D, MHK Dynamo Moskva (MHL)

7 (193) Tyson Kozak, C, Portland (WHL)

After four straight drafts of only selecting five or six players per year, it was good to see the moribund Buffalo franchise inject a ton of talent into their system, coming away from the 2021 draft with 11 new players, including multiple picks in each of the first three rounds. Still new GM Kevyn Adams has received criticism for a number of his early decisions running the Sabres, but it’s hard to find significant fault with his handling of this year’s draft, including the shipment of maligned defender Rasmus Ristolainen to Philadelphia for a mid-first round pick, Robert Hagg, and a 2023 second rounder in the hours before the first round began.

The picks themselves were very forward heavy, with nine forwards among the 11 picks, to go with two defenders. The Sabres also mixed up the pipelines they selected from, which included drafted players from a few areas that previous GM, Jason Botterill, notably overlooked in the CHL and Russia. Buffalo drafted one or two players from each CHL league, and four out of Russia. The remaining picks were from Sweden (2) and the NCAA (1 big one). As far as selecting for upside, which the McKeens rankings have a bias towards, most of the Sabres’ picks were selected around where we had them ranked – in fact, six of their selections were incredibly close to their ranking slot, while most of those we saw as reaches came in the last two rounds. We’ll get into the exception to that rule a little bit below.

First first round pick – Owen Power, D, Michigan (Big 10), 1^st overall

The pick of Power at first overall was a near no-brainer. He has virtually every tool and characteristic a team wants in a workhorse, number one defender. He is gigantic, skilled, solid in his own zone, skates well, even if he will never be mistaken for Cale Makar/Quinn Hughes. He has dominated against his age-peers, as well as against NHL veterans, such as he demonstrated at the World Championships. Power is going back to Michigan for his sophomore season, a decision supported publicly by Buffalo. He could play in the NHL now, but he could develop further collegiately, with a longer leash for risk taking. I still expect him to sign right after Michigan’s season ends, and finish up 2021-22 with the Sabres, what should be the beginning of a long run as a fixture for the team.

Second first round pick – Isak Rosen, RW/LW, Leksands IF (SHL), 14^th overall

Power was the clear choice at #1, but Rosen, selected with the primary pick received in the Ristolainen deal, was the prototype of the forwards that Buffalo targeted in the draft. Smallish (six of the nine forwards they drafted are either short, skinny, or both), incredibly skilled (the rest of the forwards all project to above average skill with the puck, although Rosen stands heads and shoulders above the others), and still just scratching the respective surfaces of their potential. Rosen had few opportunities to stick out when he was forced to play in the SHL last year due to the mid-season cancellation of Sweden’s junior leagues, but he proved his worth with a stellar showing at the U-18 championships.

Best value pick – Prokhor Poltapov, RW, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva, MHL, 33^rd overall

In actuality, the Sabres did not select anyone below where we had him ranked, but as noted above, several came very, very close, including Poltapov, drafted exactly where we had him ranked. It would have been easy to go in a different direction after the selection of Rosen in the middle of the first, as Poltapov has a profile with a few similarities in size, and skill-based style of play, but the Sabres system needs a lot more skill to rise through the ranks, and I would be hard pressed to say that he had the most pure skill of anyone available after the first round was completed. I for one would love to watch a future forward line with Rosen and Poltapov on the flanks.

Worst value pick – Stiven Sardaryan, F, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva, MHL, 88^th overall

We did not have Sardaryan ranked at all, even in our extended list of roughly 600 names. That isn’t to say that he should not have been drafted under any circumstances, but that we felt that his production in the Russian junior leagues, where he was actually a teammate of Poltapov’s, was underwhelming. We were also not the only outlet to ignore him. Maybe he wasn’t being afforded enough opportunities, as he did not want to sign with the KHL club, given his desire to play collegiately at the University of New Hampshire. Sardaryan is expected to take his next steps in the USHL, where Youngstown drafted him this year. If Buffalo believes in his skill set, more power to them. But it seems very likely that he would have still been available one or two rounds later than where the Sabres selected him.

Frölunda's Simon Edvinsson during the ice hockey match in the SHL between Rögle and Frölunda on 28 December 2020 in Ängelholm.
Photo: Petter Arvidson / BILDBYRÅN

Detroit Red Wings

1 (6) Simon Edvinsson, D, Vasteras IK (HockeyAllsvenskan)

1 (15) Sebastian Cossa, G, Edmonton (WHL)

2 (36) Shai Buium, D, Sioux City (USHL)

3 (70) Carter Mazur, LW, Tri-City (USHL)

4 (114) Redmond Savage, C, USNTDP (USHL)

5 (134) Liam Dower Nilsson, C, Frolunda J20 (SuperElit)

5 (155) Oscar Plandowski, D, Charlottetown (QMJHL)

6 (166) Pasquale Zito, C, Windsor (OHL)

As General Manager of the Red Wings, Steve Yzerman knows who he wants at the top, and grabs them, no matter how iconoclastic the selection is at that point. See Seider, Moritz from two years ago. Seen as a surprising overdraft at the time, he is now one of the top prospects in the sport and seemingly ready to break into the NHL now. The Wings took an elite-skilled forward up top last year in Lucas Raymond, but returned to building from the back out this year. At sixth overall, they selected a defender who holds some similarities to Seider in Simon Edvinsson, as big, smooth skaters with men’s league experience and untapped athleticism. Edvinsson may not be as advanced now as Seider was when he was drafted, but his tools give him a slightly higher upside if he can put it all together. Not long after selecting the big Swedish defender, Detroit traded a late 1^st rounder (part of the return from the Anthony Mantha trade) to Dallas to pick up the #15 pick, which they used to select the first goalie in the draft, the towering Sebastian Cossa. Many had Cossa ranked behind Sweden’s Jesper Wallstedt, but Yzerman likes who he likes and Cossa is a Wing.

Pick shuffling was a bit of theme for Detroit in this draft, as they did it again in the second round to grab USHL defender Shai Buium, and then traded down in the fourth round in order to acquire an extra pick in the fifth round. In the end, the eight players selected by the Red Wings were nicely divided between the positions, with two other defenders taken after Edvinsson, four forwards, and the one goalie in Cossa. They drafted two out of Sweden, three college-bound players from the USHL, and one player from each of the three CHL leagues. When the final chapter of this draft class is written, it will be judged on the top three picks’ (Edvinsson, Cossa, Buium) abilities to prevent goals far more than the production numbers any of the forwards may eventually put up.

First first round pick – Simon Edvinsson, D, Frolunda HC, SHL, 6^th overall

If Moritz Seider is the right-side first pairing defender of the future, we have to see Edvinsson as his partner on the left. A massive blueliner who has – by far – the best combination of speed and puck skills of any defender in this draft class, he spent most of his draft year playing against men in Sweden after the junior league was shut down, playing double digit games in both of Sweden’s top two leagues. He is rawer than Seider was in the latter’s draft year, but I expect him to continue to develop in the SHL this year, and his upside is as a Norris Trophy finalist.

Second first round pick – Sebastian Cossa, G, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL), 15^th overall

The first goalie selected in the 2021 draft, Cossa was practically unbeatable in the WHL this year, with a .941 save percentage, and 17 wins in 19 games. The latter stat is not really that telling, but the first number is, and is a continuation of stellar netminding that Cossa has provided as far back as he has trackable stats. Between his size, athleticism, and ability to read the play develop, he should be expected to be the heir apparent to the crease in Detroit, even if we believed that Jesper Wallstedt, who Minnesota drafted five picks later, was the better prospect.

Best value pick – Liam Dower Nilsson, C, Frolunda J20 (J20 Nationell), 134^th overall

A remarkably polished, two-way center, Dower Nilsson is no one’s idea of a top six center, but he played a shutdown role as captain for Team Sweden at the U18 tournament and put up impressive numbers in both Sweden’s junior and third-tier men’s leagues last year. The skill set does not support those numbers continuing as a higher-level pro, but he can find a way to contribute and should have been selected at least one full round earlier than where Detroit nabbed him.

Worst value pick – Carter Mazur, LW, Tri-City Storm (USHL), 70^th overall

In his second year of draft eligibility, Mazur had a great season captaining Tri-City, and being drafted by his hometown team is a great story. He is a fun player to watch and a good reminder that development is not linear, as he did take a huge developmental step last year to earn being drafted. He ends up as the worst value pick however, over the anonymous Pasquale Zito, because Zito was a late round pick and Mazur was taken in the third round. Mazur’s tools don’t line up with his production and he lacks any one tool that would come up in an elevator pitch. If he reaches his ceiling as a bottom six winger, the pick will be correctly deemed a success, but there were still players on the board who have higher projected ceilings.

Mackie Samoskevich.. Photo Dan Hickling

Florida Panthers

1 (24) Mackie Samoskevich, RW, Chicago (USHL)

2 (56) Evan Nause, D, Quebec (QMJHL)

4 (120) Vladislav Lukashevich, D, Loko Yaroslavl (MHL)

5 (152) Kirill Gerasimyuk, G, SKA Varyagi (VHL)

6 (184) Jakub Kos, LW, Ilves U20 (U20 SM-sarja)

7 (210) Braden Hache, D, Kingston (OHL)

While I absolutely adored Bill Zito’s first draft class last year – it seemed as if he was simply drafting the best player among those remaining from the McKeens list at times – this one feels much more “meh”. Not a bad class by any stretch, just uninspiring. The 2021 Florida draft class consists of a goalie, three blueliners, and two wingers. The six picks were divided evenly between European talents (two Russians and a Czech) and North Americans (one each from the USHL, QMJHL, and OHL – the last of which spent the year on the sidelines given the OHL’s cancellation).

There was no real trend to note among the Panthers draftees. They took players with grades among the best in skating (Samoskevich) and physicality (Hache) in the draft class, but on the other hand, guys like Nause and Lukashevich are relatively well-rounded prospects, without any one selling tool. The five skaters all have decent size (Samoskevich is only 5-11”, but built stocky), and Hache and Kos both qualify as big, so perhaps size was important, although not in the same way that it was for the Ottawa Senators. There was one notable element of the Panthers experience at the draft that was not related to the players they selected, but connected to a pick they dealt away from 2022. On day two of the draft, the Panthers sent their 2022 first round pick, along with goaltending prospect Devon Levi to Buffalo for Sam Reinhart. So, if we include that deal in our assessment of this draft class, it’s an obvious win. We really shouldn’t though, so like all draft classes, we will wait and see.

First round pick – Mackie Samoskevich, RW, Chicago Steel (USHL), 24^th overall

Top end speed and top end skill. Based on the first half of his season, Samoskevich is not only a first round pick, but a top 15 pick, to boot. He is an incredible skater, combining both great speed and great edges, making him a four-directional threat. His puck skills were just as impressive. He utilizes his linemates expertly, uses his feet to create new passing lanes and very slick hands to put the puck on his linemate’s sticks. His draft season was interrupted by an injury, and for a lengthy stretch, Samoskevich was not the same player upon his return, although he still flashed it enough to be worthy of being picked where Florida called his name. He will be spending the next (at least) two years on campus with Michigan, and teamed up with a good finisher, will be deadly.

Best value pick – Vladislav Lukashevich, D, Loko Yaroslavl (MHL), 120^th overall

Second rounder Evan Nause was a consideration here, but he was never going to go more than 10 or so picks higher than where the Panthers selected him. Lukashevich, a surprise omission from the Russian U18 tournament roster, was seen as more likely to be taken as much as a full round higher than where Florida drafted him, even if he went higher than where we had him ranked. Although tall, he is physically immature, but all of his tools grade out as average or better. He skates well, he is a promising mover of the puck, and he does a solid job of battling for the puck even though most opponents have more bulk on their frames. He will never be flashy enough to be a top prospect, but he has sleeper written all over him.

Worst value pick – Kirill Gerasimyuk, G, SKA Varyagi (VHL), 152^nd overall

Very young for this draft class (he has a late August birthdate), Gerasimyuk was not on to many radars for the draft, considering the limited playing time he has so far had in his career. This isn’t really bad value, per se, just a pick with more risk attached than any of Florida’s others this time, even if Florida has done well drafting goalies.

Oliver Kapanen, Photo by Dan Hickling.

Montreal Canadiens

1 (31) Logan Mailloux, D, SK Lejon (HockeyEttan)/London (OHL)

2 (63) Riley Kidney, C, Acadie-Bathurst (QMJHL)

2 (64) Oliver Kapanen, C, Kalpa U20 (U20 SM-sarja)

3 (87) Dmitri Kostenko, D, Lada Togliatti (VHL)

4 (113) William Trudeau, D, Charlottetown (QMJHL)

5 (142) Daniil Sobolev, D, Windsor (OHL)

5 (150) Joshua Roy, RW, Sherbrooke (QMJHL)

6 (191) Xavier Simoneau, C, Drummondville (QMJHL)

7 (214) Joe Vrbetic, G, North Bay (OHL)

I am generally not one to pass absolute judgement on a draft class before five years have passed, and even then, judgement will be provisional. But this class, despite including some solid players, is worse than a dud. And it earned that branding on day one, with the absurdly heartless selection of Logan Mailloux. The rumors that had followed the defender around for the previous few months had been enough for some clubs to mark him as a “DO NOT DRAFT”, but once the full details of his actions came to light, many others joined. When the player himself asked not to be drafted, there could only have been a handful of teams left who would even have considered him for the seventh round, much less round one. AITA? Yes, Mr. Bergevin, you are. The selection was callous, brazen, and an utter inability, or disregard to, reading the room.

In fairness to the other eight players selected by Montreal’s scouting staff, a few words then. Usually happy to minimize their QMJHL drafting, the Canadiens actually went heavy on their home turf this year, with four QMJHL draftees, including one (Xavier Simoneau), a third year eligible, who put up big numbers for years, but was ignored for his size. His recognition as the QMJHL and CHL Humanitarian of the Year two years ago does not redress the bad Mailloux karma, but good that Simoneau was drafted. Outside of the Q’, they selected two from Russia – one of whom was planning to play last year in the OHL and experienced a lost season as a result, one from Finland, and Mailloux and one other from the OHL. Their picks focused more on the defensive side of the game, with four blueliners plus one goalie, compared with four forwards. Size does not seem to have been a primary consideration.

First round pick – Logan Mailloux, D, SK Lejon (HockeyEttan)/London Knights (OHL), 31^st overall

Enough digital ink has been spilled by myself and many others about why Montreal should not have drafted Mailloux from a personal/personnel standpoint. But Montreal drafted him anyway and we should take a brief moment to discuss Mailloux as a hockey player. If he had not committed the crimes that he did, he would have been a reasonable, albeit not a slam dunk as a late first rounder, as we saw him in the second round before the full story of his actions was revealed. He is very big, moves well, plays a physical game. His offensive tools are fine, but his game is very raw and still mistake-prone. He is not a horrible prospect looking only at on-ice potential, but he is 100% not the caliber of player for whom you ignore or downplay his off-ice track record.

Best value pick – Joshua Roy, RW/C, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL), 150^th overall

Although his numbers have not yet caught up with his inherent skill set, it was not that long ago that Roy was coveted highly enough to be taken first overall in the QMJHL Entry Draft. Some teams were turned off by the fact that he forced a trade way from Saint John to Sherbrooke, even though it was largely a matter of homesickness, as his family was not able to leave Quebec to visit him in the Maritimes, due to COVID restrictions. So, I ask you, how does that push a gifted forward this far down draft boards while Mailloux’ actions seemingly bumped him up? It really boggles the mind. As for Roy, he has a great shot and fantastic puck skills, but his skating needs some work. Moderate improvements to his mobility could give him middle six value.

Worst value pick – Mailloux & Dmitri Kostenko, D, Lada Togliatti (VHL), 87^th overall

Enough about Mailloux. Kostenko isn’t bad. We had him ranked just outside our top 223, meaning we would not have drafted him if we were the GM of every single team, but we would have considered him and would not fault a team calling out his name in the fifth round or later. We just didn’t see a reason to really pull for him either. His offensive tools are solid, but his skating needs work, and his ability to process the game and make correct choices is lacking. Montreal has been right (at our expense) before with Russian defenders, as was the case with Alexander Romanov, who we also were not fond of, and if Kostenko is another Romanov, more power to him and Montreal. Making that bet in the third round is rich for me, though.

Tyler Boucher, Photo by Rena Laverty, USA Hockey

Ottawa Senators

1 (10) Tyler Boucher, RW, USNTDP (USHL)

2 (39) Zach Ostapchuk, C, Vancouver (WHL)

2 (49) Benjamin Roger, D, London (OHL)

3 (74) Oliver Johansson, C, Timra IK (HockeyAllsvenskan)

4 (123) Carson Latimer, RW, Edmonton (WHL)

7 (202) Chandler Romeo, D, Hamilton (OHL)

Big boys only here. Ottawa gave us the first real surprise of the 2021 draft by selecting USNTDP power forward Tyler Boucher with the 10^th overall selection. More on Boucher below, but the pick was indicative that the Senators would be hunting for size and strength with their picks this year. Of their six picks, all are at least 6-0” tall, with three of them listed as over 6-3”. Not only tall, but only two of their picks weigh in at below 198 pounds. Unfortunately, in most of these picks, it looks like Ottawa sacrificed playing ability to get those big boys, which is not to say that they won’t see NHL value out of any of these picks, but that the approach will likely mean that they receive less value at the NHL level than they would have if skill/ability was their primary concern. Each and every player selected by Ottawa was drafted far ahead of where we had the player in question ranked, something we cannot say about any other team.

Beyond the size issue, there isn’t much noteworthy about the Senators’ picks, taken as a class. Lacking picks in either of the fifth or sixth rounds, but owning an extra second rounder, the team ended up with two players each from the WHL and OHL, one from the USHL, and one European, a Swede with the best skills of anyone among their picks. The picks were evenly split positionally, with two defenders, two centers, and two wingers.

First round pick – Tyler Boucher, RW, USNTDP (USHL), 10^th overall

A power winger who can dominate physically, Boucher, son of long time NHL goalie Brian Boucher, hasn’t topped the point-per-game rate since he was playing U14 hockey in New Jersey. He has decent offensive tools, when looked at in a vacuum, but has never put them to consistent use. There was some thought that some team would call out his name in the late first round, but 10^th overall was a shock, and that’s without even considering his injury history that kept him off the ice for much of his draft year. Some pundits reported that they looked to trade down, but couldn’t work out a deal that would still ensure they could land Boucher. I strongly suspect that this selection set the stage for a few other less-talented, but big/physical/gritty players to go in the first round that otherwise might not have.

Best value pick – Carson Latimer, RW, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL), 123^rd overall

Technically, the Senators didn’t have a value pick this year, but Latimer is the closest to qualifying. He has good size with some physicality to go along with it, some skill with the puck, two-way ability, and knows how to fit in in a supporting role, which will be his sole path to the NHL. This is not a high upside player, but with some moderate improvement to his skating stride, could turn out to be a solid fourth round gamble.

Worst value pick – Zack Ostapchuk, LW, Vancouver Giants (WHL), 39^th overall

In a draft class full of reaches, the selection of Ostapchuk in the early second round was the most egregious. His pros are his plus size, above average mobility, and nascent puck skills. None of those elements are truly top six caliber, and he hadn’t produced at a top six rate since his U15 days. This pick was made around two rounds too high. Ostapchuk making the NHL at all is no guarantee, and it is very hard to see anything more than a fourth rounder. The Senators went all in on their size strategy, and I have to assume that it is because the organization feels that the young players already in the pipeline will be taking over the top roles anyway. Regardless, there is a good chance that Ostapchuk would have been available one round – or more – later.

Dylan Duke. Photo Rena Laverty, USA Hockey

Tampa Bay Lightning

3 (96) Roman Schmidt, D, USNTDP (USHL)

4 (126) Dylan Duke, LW, USNTDP (USHL)

5 (160) Cameron MacDonald, C, Saint John (QMJHL)

6 (192) Alex Gagne, D, Muskegon (USHL)

7 (196) Daniil Pylenkov, D, Podolsk (KHL)

7 (211) Robert Flinton, LW, St. Paul’s School (USHS-NH)

7 (224) Niko Huuhtanen, RW, Tappara U20 (U20 SM-sarja)

The last team to make their first pick this year, and then the last team to make any pick, a team’s draft class after winning the Stanley Cup – much less winning back-to-back Cups – is almost an afterthought. But we should never forget how instrumental good drafting – in all rounds – has been to Tampa’s recent run of success. We can’t say if the next Brayden Point will emerge from one of the seven players Tampa selected, all in the third round or later, but we shouldn’t be surprised if one or more of these mid-to-late round picks far exceeds his expected draft slot value.

Both of their first two selections (Roman Schmidt and Dylan Duke) were from the USNTDP. Two other picks were of US-based players headed for college. With the other three selections, we have one player each from Russia, Finland, and the QMJHL. The picks were a simple mix of four forwards and three defenders. Size seems to have been a consideration, with six of the seven picks (all except Duke) coming at a minimum size of 6-1”, 190. They had no problem picking up players who had been passed over in previous drafts, with Alex Gagne in his second year of eligibility and Daniil Pylenkov in his third.

First pick – Roman Schmidt, D, USNDTP (USHL), 96^th overall

Tampa’s first pick was the final selection of the third round, and with Schmidt, they added a physical specimen who combines immense size (6-6”, 209) with remarkable skating ability, and a willingness to play hard. The rest of his game s still pretty raw and prone to inconsistency on both sides of the puck, but early in the season he was given some consideration as a potential first rounder because of his two higher-end traits. Schmidt’s recent decision to forego college for Kitchener of the OHL does shorten his path to the pro game. He looks like an intriguing option for a bottom pair now, but if he adds offense to his game, that projection can easily improve.

Best value pick – Dylan Duke, C, USNTDP (USHL), 126^th overall

To be honest, had Tampa drafted Duke in the third and Schmidt in the fourth, it would have lined up far better in terms of the eventual value we expect out of each player, but size was paramount throughout this draft class, so flipping the script on these two makes sense, as there was probably a good chance that Schmidt would have been taken by another team before the Lightning had the chance to draft in the fourth round. Although smaller, Duke plays a very gritty game, thriving near the crease. He will have to learn to play on a lower line next year at Michigan, but his style is suited for that type of role. He isn’t (likely) the next Brayden Point, but Duke is likely to have had the greatest NHL value once all is said and done with this Tampa draft class.

Worst value pick – Robert Flinton, LW, St. Paul’s School (USHS-NH), 211^th overall

Truthfully, the only concern with Flinton is that nothing is really known about him. He played in a smaller prep school in his home state of New Hampshire and has no experience against top competition. He’s big and strong and has a solid snap shot, but he is mostly a mystery. Committed to Dartmouth for the 2022-23 season, he is expected to play in the USHL next season, most likely with Cedar Rapids. Flinton may be their worst value pick, but seeing as the pick was made late in the seventh round, where expected value is near nil, we at least know that the scout who pushed for him is happy, and morale is never a bad thing. This is more a statement that Tampa got solid to very good value out of the other six picks they made.

Matthew Knies. Photo by DAN HICKLING

Toronto Maple Leafs

2 (57) Matthew Knies, LW, Tri-City (USHL)

5 (153) Ty Voit, C, Sarnia (OHL)

6 (185) Vycheslav Peksa, G, Irbis Kazan (MHL)

This is easy. The Leafs only made three selections. One each from the USHL, the cancelled OHL, and Russia. Not much sense looking for patterns in a sample size of three, but the organization’s willingness to trade away their picks earlier in the year, after they were widely known to be one of the clubs who did not allow its scouts to attend games in person all year, is telling. They approached this draft class as a near afterthought, which I strongly suspect was a result of the bulk of leagues playing significantly condensed schedules. This is as close to opting out as a team could reasonably do.

First pick – Matthew Knies, LW, Tri-City Storm (USHL), 57^th overall

Knies had some first round buzz before the season started, considering his premium size and the playmaking chops he demonstrated with aplomb in 2019-20 as a USHL rookie. A bout with COVID led to a very slow start this year, both in terms of production and literally as a skater. He just looked heavy-footed. Knies picked it up as the season progressed and had some going back to the previous first rounder impression. He will have to improve his skating to maximize the rest of his game, but he is a smart enough forward to be able to succeed in a middle six if he can just get up to average mobility. Headed to play for Minnesota, Toronto will not rush him.

Best value pick – Ty Voit, C, Sarnia Sting (OHL), 153^rd overall

The Pittsburgh area native looked like a very promising playmaker as an OHL rookie in 2019-20, and might have gone off the board much higher than the late fifth round if he were bigger, or if the OHL had even an abbreviated season this year. He flashes high end puck skills, skates very well, and showed a clear propensity for making good decisions when he debuted with the Sting. He is no sure thing, but there are markers here of previous Toronto mid-round picks who either worked out, or are still young and trending in the right direction, like Adam Brooks, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Mikhail Abramov, or Nick Abruzzese.

Worst value pick – Vyacheslav Peksa, G, Irbis Kazan (MHL), 185^th overall

By process of elimination, the worst value can only have been from Toronto’s third and final selection, the unheralded netminder from Russia. Peksa was not on anyone’s radar. He played in only two games at any level in 2019-20, and 18 last year, where he was the backup to Vladimir Mosin in the regular season and played behind 2020 Toronto pick Artur Akhtyamov in the postseason. My guess is that the Leafs were comfortable with Peksa based on tracking the development of Akhtyamov. We will know a lot more about Peksa if he can finally play a full season as a starter. The fact he hasn’t done that yet – and he is already 19 years old - increases the risk factor. It would be easier to understand taking this type of a risk if the Leafs had a more normal sized draft class, but with only three players selected altogether, a more careful approach would have been preferred.

2021 NHL DRAFT: BUFFALO SABRES REVIEW

Ryan Wagman — Mon, 30 Aug 2021 15:20:24 +0000

Photo Courtesy of the University of Michigan

1 (1) Owen Power, D, Michigan (NCAA/Big 10)

1 (14) Isak Rosen, RW, Leksands IF (SHL)

2 (33) Prokhor Poltapov, LW, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva (MHL)

2 (53) Alexander Kisakov, LW, MHK Dynamo Moskva (MHL)

3 (88) Stiven Sardaryan, RW, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva (MHL)

3 (95) Josh Bloom, LW Saginaw (OHL)

4 (97) Olivier Nadeau, RW, Shawinigan (QMJHL)

5 (159) Viljami Marjala, LW, Quebec (QMJHL)

6 (161) William von Barnekow, LW/RW, Tyringe SoSS (HockeyEttan)

6 (188) Nikita Novikov, D, MHK Dynamo Moskva (MHL)

7 (193) Tyson Kozak, C, Portland (WHL)

First first round pick – Owen Power, D, Michigan (Big 10), 1^st overall

Second first round pick – Isak Rosen, RW/LW, Leksands IF (SHL), 14^th overall

Best value pick – Prokhor Poltapov, RW, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva, MHL, 33^rd overall

Worst value pick – Stiven Sardaryan, F, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva, MHL, 88^th overall

2021 NHL DRAFT: McKeen’s April Rankings – Pre-U18 World Championship – Top 32

Brock Otten — Wed, 21 Apr 2021 21:43:22 +0000

Scouting the draft certainly has not been easy this year. We could go on at length about that. Delays to the WHL season. The (recent) cancelation of the OHL season. Shortened junior seasons in Europe. Constant disruptions due to covid protocols. Rink restrictions. A greater reliance on video. These are the struggles that independent scouting agencies like ourselves have had to endure in order to evaluate and rank the best the 2021 NHL Draft has to offer. But the show must go on. Just because scouting has been different this year does not mean that our scouts have not been putting in the work. That work just looks a little different.

It has been over two months since the release of our preliminary Top 32 ranking. This time around, for our mid-season ranking, we will be increasing the length of our list to 64, along with some honorable mentions.

While the top 5 remains unchanged from our previous list (Beniers, Power, Hughes, Wallstedt, Edvinsson), there have been some pretty significant changes to the way we have ranked the players inside the Top 15. Chaz Lucius, Matthew Coronato, and Sebastian Cossa have made significant jumps, while Carson Lambos, Zachary L’Heureux, and Corson Ceulemans have seen large drops.

Lucius, of the U.S. National Development Team, was injured early on in the season, severely limiting our views of him. Now fully healthy, he is playing exceptional hockey (averaging over a goal per game in the USHL) and has moved up into our Top 10. Coronato has sustained his high level of play from earlier in the USHL season, leading the USHL in goal scoring. While Sebastian Cossa has been sensational to start the WHL season in Edmonton, currently leading the ‘Dub” in save percentage. His 6’6 frame and stopping ability are going to make him very attractive to NHL scouts inside the lottery range. The last time we had two goalies taken inside the Top 15 was 2006 when Jonathan Bernier (11th) and Riku Helenius (15th) were selected. There is a very real possibility of that happening again in 2021.

Carson Lambos is definitely a widely debated prospect these days. His play in Finland (on loan) was indifferent and, unfortunately, his season was ended early due to a medical procedure which halted his WHL season two games in and has prevented him from playing at the World Under 18’s in Texas. Ultimately, our scouts are less sure of his high-end offensive potential than they were a year ago, or even several months ago. Zachary L’Heureux is a talented player, no doubt, but his inability to stay in the Halifax lineup due to suspensions has become a concerning trend. And Ceulemans’ play since the AJHL returned has not been at the same level as it was before the stoppage. His play at the U18’s in support of Brandt Clarke on Team Canada will go a long way in determining his value for the draft.

In total, there are seven new faces ranked inside of our first round compared to last time. Those would be the aforementioned Chaz Lucius, Logan Stankoven, Aidan Hreschuk, Jack Bar, Ayrton Martino, Simon Robertsson, and Ville Koivunen.

Of course, this list is far from being set in stone. The IIHF World Under 18’s in Texas, which commence at the end of April, will be highly scrutinized. With the cancellation of events like the Hlinka/Gretzky Cup, the World Junior A Challenge, and the Five Nations, this will be the first time scouts will have an opportunity to compare the top talent against one another. While it is important to not use a single tournament as the basis of your evaluation on a player, there is no doubt that the results of the U18’s will have wide sweeping effects on the year end lists of NHL scouts. Of our ranked top 64, 32 (exactly half) are scheduled to play at the U18’s.

While tempering projections based on the U18’s will be one challenge, the other main one is the cancellation of the OHL season. Typically, nearly 20% of all players drafted come from the Ontario Hockey League. While some of the top players have played in Europe (like Brandt Clarke and Mason McTavish) or will be participating in the Under 18’s (like Ben Gaudreau and Wyatt Johnson), others will have their evaluations and grades based upon their performances last season. That is unless the CHL and Hockey Canada can successfully stage a prospect tournament in a bubble setting sometime before the draft (which is apparently being discussed and on the table). Where to slot OHL based players inside our final rankings will be a challenge.

As mentioned, this time around we have ranked the Top 64. Of course, there were several players who just missed this list. Our ‘Honorable Mentions’ for midseason were as follows (alphabetically): Eric Alarie, William von Barnekow, Josh Doan, Liam Gilmartin, David Gucciardi, Jayden Grubbe, Samuel Helenius, Brent Johnson, Tristan Lennox, Robert Orr, Kyle Masters, Connor Roulette, Joshua Roy, Ryan Winterton, and Trevor Wong.

Without further ado...the McKeen’s April top 32 rankings for the 2021 NHL Draft. Subcribers can access the top 64 by linking here.

RANK	PLAYER	POS	TEAM	HT/WT	DOB	GP-G-A-PTS
1	Matthew Beniers	C	Michigan (B1G)	6-1/175	5-Nov-02	24-10-14-24
2	Owen Power	D	Michigan (B1G)	6-6/215	22-Nov-02	26-3-13-16
3	Luke Hughes	D	USN U18 (USDP)	6-2/175	9-Sep-03	38-6-28-34
4	Jesper Wallstedt	G	Lulea (SHL)	6-3/200	14-Nov-02	12-10, 2.23, .908
5	Simon Edvinsson	D	Vasteras (Swe 2)	6-4/200	5-Feb-03	14-0-5-5
6	Chaz Lucius	C	USN U18 (USDP)	6-0/175	2-May-03	12-13-5-18
7	Dylan Guenther	RW	Edmonton (WHL)	6-0/170	3-Apr-03	12-12-12-24
8	Brandt Clarke	D	Nove Zamky (Svk)	6-1/180	9-Feb-03	26-5-10-15
9	Fabian Lysell	RW	Lulea (SHL)	5-10/175	19-Jan-03	26-2-1-3
10	William Eklund	LW	Djurgardens (SHL)	5-10/175	10-Dec-02	40-11-12-23
11	Kent Johnson	C	Michigan (B1G)	6-1/170	18-Oct-02	26-9-18-27
12	Aatu Raty	C	Karpat Oulu (Fin)	6-2/185	14-Nov-02	35-3-3-6
13	Matthew Coronato	LW	Chicago (USHL)	5-9/180	14-Nov-02	50-46-37-83
14	Cole Sillinger	LW	Sioux Falls (USHL)	6-0/195	16-May-03	31-24-22-46
15	Sebastian Cossa	G	Edmonton (WHL)	6-6/210	21-Nov-02	12-0, 1.61, .939
16	Mason McTavish	C	Olten (Sui 2)	6-0/200	30-Jan-03	13-9-2-11
17	Francesco Pinelli	C	Acroni Jesenice (Slv)	6-0/185	11-Apr-03	13-5-6-11
18	Logan Stankoven	C	Kamloops (WHL)	5-8/170	26-Feb-03	6-7-3-10
19	Oskar Olausson	RW	HV 71 (SHL)	6-1/180	10-Nov-02	16-3-1-4
20	Ryder Korczak	C	Moose Jaw (WHL)	5-10/170	23-Sep-02	13-3-11-14
21	William Stromgren	LW	MODO Hockey (Swe 2)	6-3/175	7-Jun-03	27-3-6-9
22	Isak Rosen	RW	Leksands (SHL)	5-11/155	15-Mar-03	22-0-1-1
23	Aidan Hreschuk	D	USN U18 (USDP)	5-11/180	19-Feb-03	43-5-28-33
24	Jack Bar	D	Chicago (USHL)	6-2/190	24-Oct-02	32-5-10-15
25	Corson Ceulemans	D	Brooks (AJHL)	6-1/190	5-May-03	8-4-7-11
26	Simon Robertsson	RW	Skelleftea (SHL)	6-0/190	5-Feb-03	22-1-1-2
27	Ayrton Martino	LW	Omaha (USHL)	5-10/170	28-Sep-02	36-18-36-54
28	Zachary L'Heureux	LW	Halifax (QMJHL)	5-11/195	15-May-03	33-19-20-39
29	Xavier Bourgault	C	Shawinigan (QMJHL)	6-0/170	22-Oct-02	29-20-20-40
30	Stanislav Svozil	D	Kometa Brno (Cze)	6-1/180	17-Jan-03	30-1-2-3
31	Ville Koivunen	LW	Karpat Oulu (Fin Jr)	5-11/160	13-Jun-03	38-23-26-49
32	Brennan Othmann	LW	Olten (Sui 2)	5-11/170	5-Jan-03	34-7-9-16